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Sample records for streamflow simulation based

  1. The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.E. Van Beusekom; L.E. Hay; R.J. Viger; W.A. Gould; J.A. Collazo; A. Henareh Khalyani

    2014-01-01

    This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from...

  2. The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland; Gould, William A.; Collazo, Jaime; Henareh Khalyani, Azad

    2014-01-01

    This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.

  3. Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Asadieh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

  4. Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

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    Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

    2017-08-01

    Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

  5. Multi-site Stochastic Simulation of Daily Streamflow with Markov Chain and KNN Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathai, J.; Mujumdar, P.

    2017-12-01

    A key focus of this study is to develop a method which is physically consistent with the hydrologic processes that can capture short-term characteristics of daily hydrograph as well as the correlation of streamflow in temporal and spatial domains. In complex water resource systems, flow fluctuations at small time intervals require that discretisation be done at small time scales such as daily scales. Also, simultaneous generation of synthetic flows at different sites in the same basin are required. We propose a method to equip water managers with a streamflow generator within a stochastic streamflow simulation framework. The motivation for the proposed method is to generate sequences that extend beyond the variability represented in the historical record of streamflow time series. The method has two steps: In step 1, daily flow is generated independently at each station by a two-state Markov chain, with rising limb increments randomly sampled from a Gamma distribution and the falling limb modelled as exponential recession and in step 2, the streamflow generated in step 1 is input to a nonparametric K-nearest neighbor (KNN) time series bootstrap resampler. The KNN model, being data driven, does not require assumptions on the dependence structure of the time series. A major limitation of KNN based streamflow generators is that they do not produce new values, but merely reshuffle the historical data to generate realistic streamflow sequences. However, daily flow generated using the Markov chain approach is capable of generating a rich variety of streamflow sequences. Furthermore, the rising and falling limbs of daily hydrograph represent different physical processes, and hence they need to be modelled individually. Thus, our method combines the strengths of the two approaches. We show the utility of the method and improvement over the traditional KNN by simulating daily streamflow sequences at 7 locations in the Godavari River basin in India.

  6. A hydrological prediction system based on the SVS land-surface scheme: efficient calibration of GEM-Hydro for streamflow simulation over the Lake Ontario basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    É. Gaborit

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This work explores the potential of the distributed GEM-Hydro runoff modeling platform, developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC over the last decade. More precisely, the aim is to develop a robust implementation methodology to perform reliable streamflow simulations with a distributed model over large and partly ungauged basins, in an efficient manner. The latest version of GEM-Hydro combines the SVS (Soil, Vegetation and Snow land-surface scheme and the WATROUTE routing scheme. SVS has never been evaluated from a hydrological point of view, which is done here for all major rivers flowing into Lake Ontario. Two established hydrological models are confronted to GEM-Hydro, namely MESH and WATFLOOD, which share the same routing scheme (WATROUTE but rely on different land-surface schemes. All models are calibrated using the same meteorological forcings, objective function, calibration algorithm, and basin delineation. GEM-Hydro is shown to be competitive with MESH and WATFLOOD: the NSE  √  (Nash–Sutcliffe criterion computed on the square root of the flows is for example equal to 0.83 for MESH and GEM-Hydro in validation on the Moira River basin, and to 0.68 for WATFLOOD. A computationally efficient strategy is proposed to calibrate SVS: a simple unit hydrograph is used for routing instead of WATROUTE. Global and local calibration strategies are compared in order to estimate runoff for ungauged portions of the Lake Ontario basin. Overall, streamflow predictions obtained using a global calibration strategy, in which a single parameter set is identified for the whole basin of Lake Ontario, show accuracy comparable to the predictions based on local calibration: the average NSE  √  in validation and over seven subbasins is 0.73 and 0.61, respectively for local and global calibrations. Hence, global calibration provides spatially consistent parameter values, robust performance at gauged locations, and reduces the

  7. A hydrological prediction system based on the SVS land-surface scheme: efficient calibration of GEM-Hydro for streamflow simulation over the Lake Ontario basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Fortin, Vincent; Xu, Xiaoyong; Seglenieks, Frank; Tolson, Bryan; Fry, Lauren M.; Hunter, Tim; Anctil, François; Gronewold, Andrew D.

    2017-09-01

    This work explores the potential of the distributed GEM-Hydro runoff modeling platform, developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) over the last decade. More precisely, the aim is to develop a robust implementation methodology to perform reliable streamflow simulations with a distributed model over large and partly ungauged basins, in an efficient manner. The latest version of GEM-Hydro combines the SVS (Soil, Vegetation and Snow) land-surface scheme and the WATROUTE routing scheme. SVS has never been evaluated from a hydrological point of view, which is done here for all major rivers flowing into Lake Ontario. Two established hydrological models are confronted to GEM-Hydro, namely MESH and WATFLOOD, which share the same routing scheme (WATROUTE) but rely on different land-surface schemes. All models are calibrated using the same meteorological forcings, objective function, calibration algorithm, and basin delineation. GEM-Hydro is shown to be competitive with MESH and WATFLOOD: the NSE √ (Nash-Sutcliffe criterion computed on the square root of the flows) is for example equal to 0.83 for MESH and GEM-Hydro in validation on the Moira River basin, and to 0.68 for WATFLOOD. A computationally efficient strategy is proposed to calibrate SVS: a simple unit hydrograph is used for routing instead of WATROUTE. Global and local calibration strategies are compared in order to estimate runoff for ungauged portions of the Lake Ontario basin. Overall, streamflow predictions obtained using a global calibration strategy, in which a single parameter set is identified for the whole basin of Lake Ontario, show accuracy comparable to the predictions based on local calibration: the average NSE √ in validation and over seven subbasins is 0.73 and 0.61, respectively for local and global calibrations. Hence, global calibration provides spatially consistent parameter values, robust performance at gauged locations, and reduces the complexity and computation burden of the

  8. Simulation of groundwater conditions and streamflow depletion to evaluate water availability in a Freeport, Maine, watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Martha G.; Locke, Daniel B.

    2012-01-01

    streams increased by about 8 percent (0.3 Mgal/d). A 50-percent increase in pumping resulted in a simulated decrease in streamflow discharge of about 4 percent (0.14 Mgal/d). Streamflow depletion in Harvey Brook was evaluated by use of the numerical groundwater-flow model and an analytical model. The analytical model estimated negligible depletion from Harvey Brook under current (2009) pumping conditions, whereas the numerical model estimated that flow to Harvey Brook decreased 0.38 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) because of the pumping well withdrawals. A sensitivity analysis of the analytical model method showed that conducting a cursory evaluation using an analytical model of streamflow depletion using available information may result in a very wide range in results, depending on how well the hydraulic conductivity variables and aquifer geometry of the system are known, and how well the aquifer fits the assumptions of the model. Using the analytical model to evaluate the streamflow depletion with an incomplete understanding of the hydrologic system gave results that seem unlikely to reflect actual streamflow depletion in the Freeport aquifer study area. In contrast, the groundwater-flow model was a more robust method of evaluating the amount of streamflow depletion that results from withdrawals in the Freeport aquifer, and could be used to evaluate streamflow depletion in both streams. Simulations of streamflow without pumping for each measurement site were compared to the calibratedmodel streamflow (with pumping), the difference in the total being streamflow depletion. Simulations without pumping resulted in a simulated increase in the steady-state flow rate of 0.38 ft3/s in Harvey Brook and 0.01 ft3/s in Merrill Brook. This translates into a streamflow-depletion amount equal to about 8.5 percent of the steady-state base flow in Harvey Brook, and an unmeasurable amount of depletion in Merrill Brook. If pumping was increased by 50 percent and recharge reduced by 20

  9. Improving streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Amol; Ramsankaran, RAAJ

    2017-12-01

    This article presents a study carried out using EnKF based assimilation of coarser-scale SMOS soil moisture retrievals to improve the streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model in a large catchment. This study has been carried out in Munneru river catchment, India, which is about 10,156 km2. In this study, an EnkF based new approach is proposed for improving the inherent vertical coupling of soil layers of SWAT hydrological model during soil moisture data assimilation. Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach. However, the improvements in the simulated streamflow are moderate, which is due to the limitations in SWAT model in reflecting the profile soil moisture updates in surface runoff computations. Further, it is observed that the durability of streamflow improvements is longer when the assimilation system effectively updates the subsurface flow component. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the passive microwave-based coarser-scale soil moisture products like SMOS hold significant potential to improve the streamflow estimates when assimilating into large-scale distributed hydrological models operating at a daily time step.

  10. Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

    2016-02-24

    -balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages.The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

  11. Simulating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow in a precipitation-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarriello, Philip J.; Barlow, P.M.; Duda, P.B.

    2004-01-01

    Precipitation-runoff models are used to assess the effects of water use and management alternatives on streamflow. Often, ground-water withdrawals are a major water-use component that affect streamflow, but the ability of surface-water models to simulate ground-water withdrawals is limited. As part of a Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model developed to analyze the effect of ground-water and surface-water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts, an analytical technique (STRMDEPL) was developed for calculating the effects of pumped wells on streamflow. STRMDEPL is a FORTRAN program based on two analytical solutions that solve equations for ground-water flow to a well completed in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic aquifer in direct hydraulic connection to a fully penetrating stream. One analytical method calculates unimpeded flow at the stream-aquifer boundary and the other method calculates the resistance to flow caused by semipervious streambed and streambank material. The principle of superposition is used with these analytical equations to calculate time-varying streamflow depletions due to daily pumping. The HSPF model can readily incorporate streamflow depletions caused by a well or surface-water withdrawal, or by multiple wells or surface-water withdrawals, or both, as a combined time-varying outflow demand from affected channel reaches. These demands are stored as a time series in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) file. This time-series data is read into the model as an external source used to specify flow from the first outflow gate in the reach where these withdrawals are located. Although the STRMDEPL program can be run independently of the HSPF model, an extension was developed to run this program within GenScn, a scenario generator and graphical user interface developed for use with the HSPF model. This extension requires that actual pumping rates for each well be stored

  12. Merging Satellite Precipitation Products for Improved Streamflow Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, V.; Massari, C.; Barbetta, S.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.

    2017-12-01

    statistics, as well as bias reduction and correlation coefficient, with the Bayesian approach being superior to other methods. A study case in the Tiber river basin is also presented to discuss the performance of forcing a hydrological model with the merged satellite precipitation product to simulate streamflow time series.

  13. Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

    2018-06-01

    In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

  14. Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Heeswijk, Marijke

    2006-01-01

    Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of

  15. Streamflow ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    Autonomous direct determination of a continuous time series of streamflow is not economically feasible at present (2014). As such, surrogates are used to derive a continuous time series of streamflow. The derivation process entails developing a streamflow rating, which can range from a simple, single-valued relation between stage and streamflow to a fully dynamic one-dimensional model based on hydraulics of the flow.

  16. Simulation of streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feaster, Toby D.; Golden, Heather E.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Lowery, Mark A.; Conrads, Paul; Bradley, Paul M.

    2010-01-01

    The McTier Creek watershed is located in the Sand Hills ecoregion of South Carolina and is a small catchment within the Edisto River Basin. Two watershed hydrology models were applied to the McTier Creek watershed as part of a larger scientific investigation to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin. The two models are the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and the grid-based mercury model (GBMM). TOPMODEL uses the variable-source area concept for simulating streamflow, and GBMM uses a spatially explicit modified curve-number approach for simulating streamflow. The hydrologic output from TOPMODEL can be used explicitly to simulate the transport of mercury in separate applications, whereas the hydrology output from GBMM is used implicitly in the simulation of mercury fate and transport in GBMM. The modeling efforts were a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory. Calibrations of TOPMODEL and GBMM were done independently while using the same meteorological data and the same period of record of observed data. Two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were available for comparison of observed daily mean flow with simulated daily mean flow-station 02172300, McTier Creek near Monetta, South Carolina, and station 02172305, McTier Creek near New Holland, South Carolina. The period of record at the Monetta gage covers a broad range of hydrologic conditions, including a drought and a significant wet period. Calibrating the models under these extreme conditions along with the normal flow conditions included in the record enhances the robustness of the two models. Several quantitative assessments of the goodness of fit between model simulations and the observed daily mean flows were done. These included the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient

  17. Simulated Effects of Year 2030 Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow near the Interstate-495 Corridor, Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins, Eastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Carl S.; Desimone, Leslie A.; Weiskel, Peter K.

    2008-01-01

    Continued population growth and land development for commercial, industrial, and residential uses have created concerns regarding the future supply of potable water and the quantity of ground water discharging to streams in the area of Interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts. Two ground-water models developed in 2002-2004 for the Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins were used to simulate water supply and land-use scenarios relevant for the entire Interstate-495 corridor. Future population growth, water demands, and commercial and residential growth were projected for year 2030 by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council. To assess the effects of future development on subbasin streamflows, seven scenarios were simulated by using existing computer-based ground-water-flow models with the data projected for year 2030. The scenarios incorporate three categories of projected 2030 water- and land-use data: (1) 2030 water use, (2) 2030 land use, and (3) a combination of 2030 water use and 2030 land use. Hydrologic, land-use, and water-use data from 1997 through 2001 for the Assabet River Basin study and 1989 through 1998 for the Upper Charles River Basin study were used to represent current conditions - referred to as 'basecase' conditions - in each basin to which each 2030 scenario was compared. The effects of projected 2030 land- and water-use change on streamflows in the Assabet River Basin depended upon the time of year, the hydrologic position of the subbasin in the larger basin, and the relative areas of new commercial and residential development projected for a subbasin. Effects of water use and land use on streamflow were evaluated by comparing average monthly nonstorm streamflow (base flow) for March and September simulated by using the models. The greatest decreases in streamflow (up to 76 percent in one subbasin), compared to the basecase, occurred in September, when streamflows are naturally at their lowest level. By contrast, simulated March streamflows

  18. Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Peter M.

    2016-04-05

    Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

  19. Simulation-optimization framework for multi-site multi-season hybrid stochastic streamflow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastav, Roshan; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K. P.

    2016-11-01

    A simulation-optimization (S-O) framework is developed for the hybrid stochastic modeling of multi-site multi-season streamflows. The multi-objective optimization model formulated is the driver and the multi-site, multi-season hybrid matched block bootstrap model (MHMABB) is the simulation engine within this framework. The multi-site multi-season simulation model is the extension of the existing single-site multi-season simulation model. A robust and efficient evolutionary search based technique, namely, non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm (NSGA - II) is employed as the solution technique for the multi-objective optimization within the S-O framework. The objective functions employed are related to the preservation of the multi-site critical deficit run sum and the constraints introduced are concerned with the hybrid model parameter space, and the preservation of certain statistics (such as inter-annual dependence and/or skewness of aggregated annual flows). The efficacy of the proposed S-O framework is brought out through a case example from the Colorado River basin. The proposed multi-site multi-season model AMHMABB (whose parameters are obtained from the proposed S-O framework) preserves the temporal as well as the spatial statistics of the historical flows. Also, the other multi-site deficit run characteristics namely, the number of runs, the maximum run length, the mean run sum and the mean run length are well preserved by the AMHMABB model. Overall, the proposed AMHMABB model is able to show better streamflow modeling performance when compared with the simulation based SMHMABB model, plausibly due to the significant role played by: (i) the objective functions related to the preservation of multi-site critical deficit run sum; (ii) the huge hybrid model parameter space available for the evolutionary search and (iii) the constraint on the preservation of the inter-annual dependence. Split-sample validation results indicate that the AMHMABB model is

  20. Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs) on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design) and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1) providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2) isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration) effect, (3) providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

  1. Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Piniewski

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA. A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1 providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2 isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration effect, (3 providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

  2. Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

    2017-10-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

  3. Assessment of GPM and TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products in Streamflow Simulations in a Data-Sparse Mountainous Watershed in Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yuan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Satellite precipitation products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission and its predecessor the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM are a critical data source for hydrological applications in ungauged basins. This study conducted an initial and early evaluation of the performance of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG final run and the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42V7 precipitation products, and their feasibility in streamflow simulations in the Chindwin River basin, Myanmar, from April 2014 to December 2015 was also assessed. Results show that, although IMERG and 3B42V7 can potentially capture the spatiotemporal patterns of historical precipitation, the two products contain considerable errors. Compared with 3B42V7, no significant improvements were found in IMERG. Moreover, 3B42V7 outperformed IMERG at daily and monthly scales and in heavy rain detections at four out of five gauges. The large errors in IMERG and 3B42V7 distinctly propagated to streamflow simulations via the Xinanjiang hydrological model, with a significant underestimation of total runoff and high flows. The bias correction of the satellite precipitation effectively improved the streamflow simulations. The 3B42V7-based streamflow simulations performed better than the gauge-based simulations. In general, IMERG and 3B42V7 are feasible for use in streamflow simulations in the study area, although 3B42V7 is better suited than IMERG.

  4. Simulating streamflow and water table depth with a coupled hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alphonce Chenjerayi Guzha

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available A coupled model integrating MODFLOW and TOPNET with the models interacting through the exchange of recharge and baseflow and river-aquifer interactions was developed and applied to the Big Darby Watershed in Ohio, USA. Calibration and validation results show that there is generally good agreement between measured streamflow and simulated results from the coupled model. At two gauging stations, average goodness of fit (R2, percent bias (PB, and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS values of 0.83, 11.15%, and 0.83, respectively, were obtained for simulation of streamflow during calibration, and values of 0.84, 8.75%, and 0.85, respectively, were obtained for validation. The simulated water table depths yielded average R2 values of 0.77 and 0.76 for calibration and validation, respectively. The good match between measured and simulated streamflows and water table depths demonstrates that the model is capable of adequately simulating streamflows and water table depths in the watershed and also capturing the influence of spatial and temporal variation in recharge.

  5. Modifying WEPP to improve streamflow simulation in a Pacific Northwest watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot; E. A. Bruner; S. Dun; E. S. Brooks; I. S. Miller

    2013-01-01

    The assessment of water yield from hillslopes into streams is critical in managing water supply and aquatic habitat. Streamflow is typically composed of surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and groundwater baseflow; baseflow sustains the stream during the dry season. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model simulates surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow...

  6. Impact of rain gauge quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation: an application to the Warwick catchment, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shulun; Li, Yuan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.

    2017-12-01

    Rain gauges are widely used to obtain temporally continuous point rainfall records, which are then interpolated into spatially continuous data to force hydrological models. However, rainfall measurements and interpolation procedure are subject to various uncertainties, which can be reduced by applying quality control and selecting appropriate spatial interpolation approaches. Consequently, the integrated impact of rainfall quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation has attracted increased attention but not been fully addressed. This study applies a quality control procedure to the hourly rainfall measurements obtained in the Warwick catchment in eastern Australia. The grid-based daily precipitation from the Australian Water Availability Project was used as a reference. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily accumulation of gauged rainfall and the reference data was used to eliminate gauges with significant quality issues. The unrealistic outliers were censored based on a comparison between gauged rainfall and the reference. Four interpolation methods, including the inverse distance weighting (IDW), nearest neighbors (NN), linear spline (LN), and ordinary Kriging (OK), were implemented. The four methods were firstly assessed through a cross-validation using the quality-controlled rainfall data. The impacts of the quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation were then evaluated through a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and Bias of the streamflow simulations were significantly improved after quality control. In the cross-validation, the IDW and OK methods resulted in good interpolation rainfall, while the NN led to the worst result. In term of the impact on hydrological prediction, the IDW led to the most consistent streamflow predictions with the observations, according to the validation at five streamflow-gauged locations. The OK method

  7. Simulation of streamflow in the Pleasant, Narraguagus, Sheepscot, and Royal Rivers, Maine, using watershed models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.; Nielsen, Martha G.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study in 2008 to investigate anticipated changes in summer streamflows and stream temperatures in four coastal Maine river basins and the potential effects of those changes on populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. To achieve this purpose, it was necessary to characterize the quantity and timing of streamflow in these rivers by developing and evaluating a distributed-parameter watershed model for a part of each river basin by using the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The GIS (geographic information system) Weasel, a USGS software application, was used to delineate the four study basins and their many subbasins, and to derive parameters for their geographic features. The models were calibrated using a four-step optimization procedure in which model output was evaluated against four datasets for calibrating solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, annual and seasonal water balances, and daily streamflows. The calibration procedure involved thousands of model runs that used the USGS software application Luca (Let us calibrate). Luca uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) global search algorithm to calibrate the model parameters. The calibrated watershed models performed satisfactorily, in that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistic values for the calibration periods ranged from 0.59 to 0.75 (on a scale of negative infinity to 1) and NSE statistic values for the evaluation periods ranged from 0.55 to 0.73. The calibrated watershed models simulate daily streamflow at many locations in each study basin. These models enable natural resources managers to characterize the timing and amount of streamflow in order to support a variety of water-resources efforts including water-quality calculations, assessments of water use, modeling of population dynamics and migration of Atlantic salmon, modeling and assessment of habitat, and simulation of anticipated changes to streamflow and water temperature

  8. Distributed HUC-based modeling with SUMMA for ensemble streamflow forecasting over large regional domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saharia, M.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.; Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Most operational streamflow forecasting systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow require an experienced human forecaster. But this approach faces challenges surrounding process reproducibility, hindcasting capability, and extension to large domains. The operational hydrologic community is increasingly moving towards `over-the-loop' (completely automated) large-domain simulations yet recent developments indicate a widespread lack of community knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of such systems for forecasting. A realistic representation of land surface hydrologic processes is a critical element for improving forecasts, but often comes at the substantial cost of forecast system agility and efficiency. While popular grid-based models support the distributed representation of land surface processes, intermediate-scale Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-based modeling could provide a more efficient and process-aligned spatial discretization, reducing the need for tradeoffs between model complexity and critical forecasting requirements such as ensemble methods and comprehensive model calibration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the USACE to implement, assess, and demonstrate real-time, over-the-loop distributed streamflow forecasting for several large western US river basins and regions. In this presentation, we present early results from short to medium range hydrologic and streamflow forecasts for the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We employ a real-time 1/16th degree daily ensemble model forcings as well as downscaled Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) meteorological forecasts. These datasets drive an intermediate-scale configuration of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model, which represents the PNW using over 11,700 HUCs. The system produces not only streamflow forecasts (using the Mizu

  9. Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

    2009-05-01

    Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block

  10. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  11. Intercomparison of Streamflow Simulations between WRF-Hydro and Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    KIM, J.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.; Salas, F.; Cui, Z.; Johnson, D.

    2017-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Weather Service (NWS) developed the Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) framework as an initial step towards spatially distributed modeling at River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Recently, the NOAA/NWS worked with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to implement the National Water Model (NWM) for nationally-consistent water resources prediction. The NWM is based on the WRF-Hydro framework and is run at a 1km spatial resolution and 1-hour time step over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and contributing areas in Canada and Mexico. In this study, we compare streamflow simulations from HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro to observations from 279 USGS stations. For streamflow simulations, HL-RDHM is run on 4km grids with the temporal resolution of 1 hour for a 5-year period (Water Years 2008-2012), using a priori parameters provided by NOAA-NWS. The WRF-Hydro streamflow simulations for the same time period are extracted from NCAR's 23 retrospective run of the NWM (version 1.0) over CONUS based on 1km grids. We choose 279 USGS stations which are relatively less affected by dams or reservoirs, in the domains of six different RFCs. We use the daily average values of simulations and observations for the convenience of comparison. The main purpose of this research is to evaluate how HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro perform at USGS gauge stations. We compare daily time-series of observations and both simulations, and calculate the error values using a variety of error functions. Using these plots and error values, we evaluate the performances of HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro models. Our results show a mix of model performance across geographic regions.

  12. Improving Streamflow Simulation in Gaged and Ungaged Areas Using a Multi-Model Synthesis Combined with Remotely-Sensed Data and Estimates of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.

    2015-12-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the conterminous United States (CONUS). More than 1,700 gaged watersheds across the CONUS were modeled to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations in gaged and ungaged watersheds by linking statistically- and physically-based hydrologic models with remotely-sensed data products (i.e. - snow water equivalent) and estimates of uncertainty. Initially, the physically-based models were calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison. As many stream reaches in the CONUS are either not gaged, or are substantially impacted by water use or flow regulation, ancillary information must be used to determine reasonable parameter estimations for streamflow simulations. In addition, not all ancillary datasets are appropriate for application to all parts of the CONUS (e.g. - snow water equivalent in the southeastern U.S., where snow is a rarity). As it is not expected that any one data product or model simulation will be sufficient for representing hydrologic behavior across the entire CONUS, a systematic evaluation of which data products improve simulations of streamflow for various regions across the CONUS was performed. The resulting portfolio of calibration strategies can be used to guide selection of an appropriate combination of simulated and measured information for model development and calibration at a given location of interest. In addition, these calibration strategies have been developed to be flexible so that new data products or simulated information can be assimilated. This analysis provides a foundation to understand how well models work when streamflow data is either not available or is limited and could be used to further inform hydrologic model parameter development for ungaged areas.

  13. Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

    2008-01-01

    In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

  14. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  15. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Simulating the influence of snow surface processes on soil moisture dynamics and streamflow generation in an alpine catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wever

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of flood risks in alpine, snow-covered catchments requires an understanding of the linkage between the snow cover, soil and discharge in the stream network. Here, we apply the comprehensive, distributed model Alpine3D to investigate the role of soil moisture in the predisposition of the Dischma catchment in Switzerland to high flows from rainfall and snowmelt. The recently updated soil module of the physics-based multilayer snow cover model SNOWPACK, which solves the surface energy and mass balance in Alpine3D, is verified against soil moisture measurements at seven sites and various depths inside and in close proximity to the Dischma catchment. Measurements and simulations in such terrain are difficult and consequently, soil moisture was simulated with varying degrees of success. Differences between simulated and measured soil moisture mainly arise from an overestimation of soil freezing and an absence of a groundwater description in the Alpine3D model. Both were found to have an influence in the soil moisture measurements. Using the Alpine3D simulation as the surface scheme for a spatially explicit hydrologic response model using a travel time distribution approach for interflow and baseflow, streamflow simulations were performed for the discharge from the catchment. The streamflow simulations provided a closer agreement with observed streamflow when driving the hydrologic response model with soil water fluxes at 30 cm depth in the Alpine3D model. Performance decreased when using the 2 cm soil water flux, thereby mostly ignoring soil processes. This illustrates that the role of soil moisture is important to take into account when understanding the relationship between both snowpack runoff and rainfall and catchment discharge in high alpine terrain. However, using the soil water flux at 60 cm depth to drive the hydrologic response model also decreased its performance, indicating that an optimal soil depth to include in

  17. Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

    2015-10-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

  18. Attributing uncertainty in streamflow simulations due to variable inputs via the Quantile Flow Deviation metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoaib, Syed Abu; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish

    2018-06-01

    Every model to characterise a real world process is affected by uncertainty. Selecting a suitable model is a vital aspect of engineering planning and design. Observation or input errors make the prediction of modelled responses more uncertain. By way of a recently developed attribution metric, this study is aimed at developing a method for analysing variability in model inputs together with model structure variability to quantify their relative contributions in typical hydrological modelling applications. The Quantile Flow Deviation (QFD) metric is used to assess these alternate sources of uncertainty. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) precipitation data for four different Australian catchments is used to analyse the impact of spatial rainfall variability on simulated streamflow variability via the QFD. The QFD metric attributes the variability in flow ensembles to uncertainty associated with the selection of a model structure and input time series. For the case study catchments, the relative contribution of input uncertainty due to rainfall is higher than that due to potential evapotranspiration, and overall input uncertainty is significant compared to model structure and parameter uncertainty. Overall, this study investigates the propagation of input uncertainty in a daily streamflow modelling scenario and demonstrates how input errors manifest across different streamflow magnitudes.

  19. Multivariate synthetic streamflow generation using a hybrid model based on artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Ochoa-Rivera

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A model for multivariate streamflow generation is presented, based on a multilayer feedforward neural network. The structure of the model results from two components, the neural network (NN deterministic component and a random component which is assumed to be normally distributed. It is from this second component that the model achieves the ability to incorporate effectively the uncertainty associated with hydrological processes, making it valuable as a practical tool for synthetic generation of streamflow series. The NN topology and the corresponding analytical explicit formulation of the model are described in detail. The model is calibrated with a series of monthly inflows to two reservoir sites located in the Tagus River basin (Spain, while validation is performed through estimation of a set of statistics that is relevant for water resources systems planning and management. Among others, drought and storage statistics are computed and compared for both the synthetic and historical series. The performance of the NN-based model was compared to that of a standard autoregressive AR(2 model. Results show that NN represents a promising modelling alternative for simulation purposes, with interesting potential in the context of water resources systems management and optimisation. Keywords: neural networks, perceptron multilayer, error backpropagation, hydrological scenario generation, multivariate time-series..

  20. Model-Based Attribution of High-Resolution Streamflow Trends in Two Alpine Basins of Western Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Kormann

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower

  1. Potential impact of climate change to the future streamflow of Yellow River Basin based on CMIP5 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoli; Zheng, Weifei; Ren, Liliang; Zhang, Mengru; Wang, Yuqian; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu

    2018-02-01

    The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the largest river basin in northern China, which has suffering water scarcity and drought hazard for many years. Therefore, assessments the potential impacts of climate change on the future streamflow in this basin is very important for local policy and planning on food security. In this study, based on the observations of 101 meteorological stations in YRB, equidistant CDF matching (EDCDFm) statistical downscaling approach was applied to eight climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was developed based on downscaled fields for simulating streamflow in the future period over YRB. The results show that with the global warming trend, the annual streamflow will reduced about 10 % during the period of 2021-2050, compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in YRB. There should be suitable water resources planning to meet the demands of growing populations and future climate changing in this region.

  2. Towards a publicly available, map-based regional software tool to estimate unregulated daily streamflow at ungauged rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Archfield

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow information is critical for addressing any number of hydrologic problems. Often, streamflow information is needed at locations that are ungauged and, therefore, have no observations on which to base water management decisions. Furthermore, there has been increasing need for daily streamflow time series to manage rivers for both human and ecological functions. To facilitate negotiation between human and ecological demands for water, this paper presents the first publicly available, map-based, regional software tool to estimate historical, unregulated, daily streamflow time series (streamflow not affected by human alteration such as dams or water withdrawals at any user-selected ungauged river location. The map interface allows users to locate and click on a river location, which then links to a spreadsheet-based program that computes estimates of daily streamflow for the river location selected. For a demonstration region in the northeast United States, daily streamflow was, in general, shown to be reliably estimated by the software tool. Estimating the highest and lowest streamflows that occurred in the demonstration region over the period from 1960 through 2004 also was accomplished but with more difficulty and limitations. The software tool provides a general framework that can be applied to other regions for which daily streamflow estimates are needed.

  3. Towards a publicly available, map-based regional software tool to estimate unregulated daily streamflow at ungauged rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Steeves, Peter A.; Guthrie, John D.; Ries, Kernell G.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow information is critical for addressing any number of hydrologic problems. Often, streamflow information is needed at locations that are ungauged and, therefore, have no observations on which to base water management decisions. Furthermore, there has been increasing need for daily streamflow time series to manage rivers for both human and ecological functions. To facilitate negotiation between human and ecological demands for water, this paper presents the first publicly available, map-based, regional software tool to estimate historical, unregulated, daily streamflow time series (streamflow not affected by human alteration such as dams or water withdrawals) at any user-selected ungauged river location. The map interface allows users to locate and click on a river location, which then links to a spreadsheet-based program that computes estimates of daily streamflow for the river location selected. For a demonstration region in the northeast United States, daily streamflow was, in general, shown to be reliably estimated by the software tool. Estimating the highest and lowest streamflows that occurred in the demonstration region over the period from 1960 through 2004 also was accomplished but with more difficulty and limitations. The software tool provides a general framework that can be applied to other regions for which daily streamflow estimates are needed.

  4. Separation of base flow from streamflow using groundwater levels - illustrated for the Pang catchment (UK)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, E.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

    2005-01-01

    A new filter to separate base flow from streamflow has developed that uses observed groundwater levels. To relate the base flow to the observed groundwater levels, a non-linear relation was used. This relation is suitable for unconfined aquifers with deep groundwater levels that do not respond to

  5. A New Streamflow-Routing (SFR1) Package to Simulate Stream-Aquifer Interaction with MODFLOW-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudic, David E.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Banta, Edward R.

    2004-01-01

    stream reach is based on a mass-balance approach and accounts for exchanges with (inputs from or losses to) ground-water systems. Two test examples are used to illustrate some of the capabilities of the SFR1 Package. The first test simulation was designed to illustrate how pumping of ground water from an aquifer connected to streams can affect streamflow, depth, width, and streambed conductance using the different options. The second test simulation was designed to illustrate solute transport through interconnected lakes, streams, and aquifers. Because of the need to examine time series results from the model simulations, the Gage Package first described in the LAK3 documentation was revised to include time series results of selected variables (streamflows, stream depth and width, streambed conductance, solute concentrations, and solute loads) for specified stream reaches. The mass-balance or continuity approach for routing flow and solutes through a stream network may not be applicable for all interactions between streams and aquifers. The SFR1 Package is best suited for modeling long-term changes (months to hundreds of years) in ground-water flow and solute concentrations using averaged flows in streams. The Package is not recommended for modeling the transient exchange of water between streams and aquifers when the objective is to examine short-term (minutes to days) effects caused by rapidly changing streamflows.

  6. SWAT-based streamflow and embayment modeling of Karst-affected Chapel branch watershed, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra Amatya; M. Jha; A.E. Edwards; T.M. Williams; D.R. Hitchcock

    2011-01-01

    SWAT is a GIS-based basin-scale model widely used for the characterization of hydrology and water quality of large, complex watersheds; however, SWAT has not been fully tested in watersheds with karst geomorphology and downstream reservoir-like embayment. In this study, SWAT was applied to test its ability to predict monthly streamflow dynamics for a 1,555 ha karst...

  7. Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

  8. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

    2018-04-01

    This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate-model-based

  9. Simulation and reconstruction of parameters of streamflow and glacier mass balance in the Northern Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Konovalov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The work was aimed at numerical modeling of spatial-temporal variability of the river Terek seasonal (April to September streamflow characteristics and long-term fluctuations of components of annual glacier mass balances in this basin and on the adjacent territories. Mass balance of glaciers Djankuat and Garabashi was calculated. Simulation was performed by means of stochastic modeling and discrete data presenting fields of main meteorological parameters (precipitation, air temperature and humidity having effect on the streamflow. Realization of this approach is complicated by the fact that spatial representativeness of hydrological and meteorological sites are not corresponding one to another. Data on the runoff is clearly related to the total drainage area closed by a gauging station. And for this data we study a relationship with meteorological parameters which are measured at a non-regular observational network whose spatial representativeness is unknown. These stations are generally located beyond the area under investigation (Fig. 2. Similar problem exists when we analyze a relationship between components of the mass balance of individual glaciers (Djankuat and Garabashi and the above climate characteristics measured at some stations located on the whole Caucasus territory. The same takes place when long-term indices of width and density of tree annual rings obtained in upper reaches of the river Kuban’ are used for analysis of variations of the runoff and the glacier mass balance in the river Terek basin located at a distance of 100-150 km from the Kuban’ dendrologic sites.To solve the problem we used a wide number of factors which directly (various information about the climate or indirectly (indices of the climate dryness, wood ring characteristics characterize conditions of formation of annual and seasonal river runoff and components of glacier mass balance in the North Caucasus. Use of all obtained information made possible the

  10. A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.

  11. Prediction of Missing Streamflow Data using Principle of Information Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosa, B.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Incomplete (missing of streamflow data often occurs. This can be caused by a not continous data recording or poor storage. In this study, missing consecutive streamflow data are predicted using the principle of information entropy. Predictions are performed ​​using the complete monthly streamflow information from the nearby river. Data on average monthly streamflow used as a simulation sample are taken from observation stations Katulampa, Batubeulah, and Genteng, which are the Ciliwung Cisadane river areas upstream. The simulated prediction of missing streamflow data in 2002 and 2003 at Katulampa Station are based on information from Genteng Station, and Batubeulah Station. The mean absolute error (MAE average obtained was 0,20 and 0,21 in 2002 and the MAE average in 2003 was 0,12 and 0,16. Based on the value of the error and pattern of filled gaps, this method has the potential to be developed further.

  12. Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the White Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

    2003-01-01

    The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, White Clay Creek, and Red Clay Creek. The White Clay Creek is the second largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 108 mi2. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in non point-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the three major subbasins and for the Christina River, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base- flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the White Clay Creek subbasin and at nine sites in the other subbasins.The HSPF model for the White Clay Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 17 reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.37 to 13 mi2. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the White Clay Creek Basin are agricultural, forested

  13. Artificial intelligence based models for stream-flow forecasting: 2000-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; El-shafie, Ahmed; Jaafar, Othman; Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; Sayl, Khamis Naba

    2015-11-01

    The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has increased since the middle of the 20th century as seen in its application in a wide range of engineering and science problems. The last two decades, for example, has seen a dramatic increase in the development and application of various types of AI approaches for stream-flow forecasting. Generally speaking, AI has exhibited significant progress in forecasting and modeling non-linear hydrological applications and in capturing the noise complexity in the dataset. This paper explores the state-of-the-art application of AI in stream-flow forecasting, focusing on defining the data-driven of AI, the advantages of complementary models, as well as the literature and their possible future application in modeling and forecasting stream-flow. The review also identifies the major challenges and opportunities for prospective research, including, a new scheme for modeling the inflow, a novel method for preprocessing time series frequency based on Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS) techniques, and Swarm Intelligence (SI) as an optimization approach.

  14. ASCAT soil moisture data assimilation through the Ensemble Kalman Filter for improving streamflow simulation in Mediterranean catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loizu, Javier; Massari, Christian; Álvarez-Mozos, Jesús; Casalí, Javier; Goñi, Mikel

    2016-04-01

    Assimilation of Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) observations obtained from remote sensing techniques have been shown to improve streamflow prediction at different time scales of hydrological modeling. Different sensors and methods have been tested for their application in SSM estimation, especially in the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The available observation devices include passive microwave sensors such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) onboard the Aqua satellite and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. On the other hand, active microwave systems include Scatterometers (SCAT) onboard the European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1/2) and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard MetOp-A satellite. Data assimilation (DA) include different techniques that have been applied in hydrology and other fields for decades. These techniques include, among others, Kalman Filtering (KF), Variational Assimilation or Particle Filtering. From the initial KF method, different techniques were developed to suit its application to different systems. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), extensively applied in hydrological modeling improvement, shows its capability to deal with nonlinear model dynamics without linearizing model equations, as its main advantage. The objective of this study was to investigate whether data assimilation of SSM ASCAT observations, through the EnKF method, could improve streamflow simulation of mediterranean catchments with TOPLATS hydrological complex model. The DA technique was programmed in FORTRAN, and applied to hourly simulations of TOPLATS catchment model. TOPLATS (TOPMODEL-based Land-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme) was applied on its lumped version for two mediterranean catchments of similar size, located in northern Spain (Arga, 741 km2) and central Italy (Nestore, 720 km2). The model performs a separated computation of energy and water balances. In those balances, the soil

  15. Simulation of streamflows and basin-wide hydrologic variables over several climate-change scenarios, Methow River basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank D.; Mastin, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing watershed model and downscaling procedures to provide simulated hydrological data over various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for use in the Methow River framework prototype. An existing watershed model was used to simulate daily time series of streamflow and basin-wide hydrologic variables for baseline conditions (1990–2000), and then for all combinations of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios and five general circulation models for future conditions (2008–2095). Input data for 18 precipitation and 17 temperature model input sites were generated using statistical techniques to downscale general circulation model data. The simulated results were averaged using an 11-year moving window to characterize the central year of the window to provide simulated data for water years 2008–2095.

  16. Processing of next generation weather radar-multisensor precipitation estimates and quantitative precipitation forecast data for the DuPage County streamflow simulation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bera, Maitreyee; Ortel, Terry W.

    2018-01-12

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with DuPage County Stormwater Management Department, is testing a near real-time streamflow simulation system that assists in the management and operation of reservoirs and other flood-control structures in the Salt Creek and West Branch DuPage River drainage basins in DuPage County, Illinois. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey maintains a database of hourly meteorological and hydrologic data for use in this near real-time streamflow simulation system. Among these data are next generation weather radar-multisensor precipitation estimates and quantitative precipitation forecast data, which are retrieved from the North Central River Forecasting Center of the National Weather Service. The DuPage County streamflow simulation system uses these quantitative precipitation forecast data to create streamflow predictions for the two simulated drainage basins. This report discusses in detail how these data are processed for inclusion in the Watershed Data Management files used in the streamflow simulation system for the Salt Creek and West Branch DuPage River drainage basins.

  17. Surface-water and karst groundwater interactions and streamflow-response simulations of the karst-influenced upper Lost River watershed, Orange County, Indiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayless, E. Randall; Cinotto, Peter J.; Ulery, Randy L.; Taylor, Charles J.; McCombs, Gregory K.; Kim, Moon H.; Nelson, Hugh L.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs (OCRA), conducted a study of the upper Lost River watershed in Orange County, Indiana, from 2012 to 2013. Streamflow and groundwater data were collected at 10 data-collection sites from at least October 2012 until April 2013, and a preliminary Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)-TOPMODEL based hydrologic model was created to increase understanding of the complex, karstic hydraulic and hydrologic system present in the upper Lost River watershed, Orange County, Ind. Statistical assessment of the optimized hydrologic-model results were promising and returned correlation coefficients for simulated and measured stream discharge of 0.58 and 0.60 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.56 and 0.39 for USGS streamflow-gaging stations 03373530 (Lost River near Leipsic, Ind.), and 03373560 (Lost River near Prospect, Ind.), respectively. Additional information to refine drainage divides is needed before applying the model to the entire karst region of south-central Indiana. Surface-water and groundwater data were used to tentatively quantify the complex hydrologic processes taking place within the watershed and provide increased understanding for future modeling and management applications. The data indicate that during wet-weather periods and after certain intense storms, the hydraulic capacity of swallow holes and subsurface conduits is overwhelmed with excess water that flows onto the surface in dry-bed relic stream channels and karst paleovalleys. Analysis of discharge data collected at USGS streamflow-gaging station 03373550 (Orangeville Rise, at Orangeville, Ind.), and other ancillary data-collection sites in the watershed, indicate that a bounding condition is likely present, and drainage from the underlying karst conduit system is potentially limited to near 200 cubic feet per second. This

  18. Monthly streamflow forecasting based on hidden Markov model and Gaussian Mixture Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yongqi; Ye, Lei; Qin, Hui; Hong, Xiaofeng; Ye, Jiajun; Yin, Xingli

    2018-06-01

    Reliable streamflow forecasts can be highly valuable for water resources planning and management. In this study, we combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) and Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) for probabilistic monthly streamflow forecasting. The HMM is initialized using a kernelized K-medoids clustering method, and the Baum-Welch algorithm is then executed to learn the model parameters. GMR derives a conditional probability distribution for the predictand given covariate information, including the antecedent flow at a local station and two surrounding stations. The performance of HMM-GMR was verified based on the mean square error and continuous ranked probability score skill scores. The reliability of the forecasts was assessed by examining the uniformity of the probability integral transform values. The results show that HMM-GMR obtained reasonably high skill scores and the uncertainty spread was appropriate. Different HMM states were assumed to be different climate conditions, which would lead to different types of observed values. We demonstrated that the HMM-GMR approach can handle multimodal and heteroscedastic data.

  19. Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability streamflows for streams in Kansas based on data through water year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, Colin C.; Heimann, David C.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer L.

    2017-08-14

    A study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Transportation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to develop regression models to estimate peak streamflows of annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent at ungaged locations in Kansas. Peak streamflow frequency statistics from selected streamgages were related to contributing drainage area and average precipitation using generalized least-squares regression analysis. The peak streamflow statistics were derived from 151 streamgages with at least 25 years of streamflow data through 2015. The developed equations can be used to predict peak streamflow magnitude and frequency within two hydrologic regions that were defined based on the effects of irrigation. The equations developed in this report are applicable to streams in Kansas that are not substantially affected by regulation, surface-water diversions, or urbanization. The equations are intended for use for streams with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.17 to 14,901 square miles in the nonirrigation effects region and, 1.02 to 3,555 square miles in the irrigation-affected region, corresponding to the range of drainage areas of the streamgages used in the development of the regional equations.

  20. Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

    2011-12-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

  1. Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Red Clay Creek subbasin of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

    2003-01-01

    The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, Brandywine Creek, and Christina River. The Red Clay Creek is the smallest of the subbasins and drains an area of 54 mi2. Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking-water supply, and to support aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency, waterquality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpointsource contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpointsource evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in smaller subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at 1 site in the Red Clay Creek subbasin and at 10 sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin.The HSPF model for the Red Clay Creek subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 1.7 to 10 mi2. One of the reaches contains a regulated reservoir. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Red Clay Creek

  2. Accessing the capability of TRMM 3B42 V7 to simulate streamflow during extreme rain events: Case study for a Himalayan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Brijesh; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2018-03-01

    The paper examines the quality of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 precipitation product to simulate the streamflow using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various rainfall intensities over the Himalayan region. The SWAT model has been set up for Gandak River Basin with 41 sub-basins and 420 HRUs. Five stream gauge locations are used to simulate the streamflow for a time span of 10 years (2000-2010). Daily streamflow for the simulation period is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), India and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. The simulation results are found good in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) {>}0.65, coefficient of determination (R2) {>}0.67 and Percentage Bias (PBIAS){}124.4 mm/d). The PBIAS and RSR show that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. However, it does not perform well for light- and extremely-heavy rainfall intensities. The finding of the present work is useful for the problems related to water resources management, irrigation planning and hazard analysis over the Himalayan regions.

  3. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  4. Comparison of base flows to selected streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Jeffrey B.

    2012-01-01

    Base flows were compared with published streamflow statistics to assess climate variability and to determine the published statistics that can be substituted for annual and seasonal base flows of unregulated streams in West Virginia. The comparison study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Water and Waste Management. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Differences in mean annual base flows for five record sub-periods (1930-42, 1943-62, 1963-69, 1970-79, and 1980-2002) range from -14.9 to 14.6 percent when compared to the values for the period 1930-2002. Differences between mean seasonal base flows and values for the period 1930-2002 are less variable for winter and spring, -11.2 to 11.0 percent, than for summer and fall, -47.0 to 43.6 percent. Mean summer base flows (July-September) and mean monthly base flows for July, August, September, and October are approximately equal, within 7.4 percentage points of mean annual base flow. The mean of each of annual, spring, summer, fall, and winter base flows are approximately equal to the annual 50-percent (standard error of 10.3 percent), 45-percent (error of 14.6 percent), 75-percent (error of 11.8 percent), 55-percent (error of 11.2 percent), and 35-percent duration flows (error of 11.1 percent), respectively. The mean seasonal base flows for spring, summer, fall, and winter are approximately equal to the spring 50- to 55-percent (standard error of 6.8 percent), summer 45- to 50-percent (error of 6.7 percent), fall 45-percent (error of 15.2 percent), and winter 60-percent duration flows (error of 8.5 percent), respectively. Annual and seasonal base flows representative of the period 1930-2002 at unregulated streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged locations in West Virginia can be estimated using previously published

  5. Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Christina River subbasin and overview of simulations in other subbasins of the Christina River Basin, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, 1994-98

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

    2003-01-01

    The Christina River Basin drains 565 square miles (mi2) in Pennsylvania and Delaware and includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Christina River subbasin (exclusive of the Brandywine, Red Clay, and White Clay Creek subbasins) drains an area of 76 mi2. Streams in the Christina River Basin are used for recreation, drinking water supply, and support of aquatic life. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the stream. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point- and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on stream water quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint- source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at two sites in the Christina River subbasin and nine sites elsewhere in the Christina River Basin.The HSPF model for the Christina River subbasin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into nine reaches draining areas that ranged from 3.8 to 21.9 mi2. Ten different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the Christina

  6. Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.

    2011-12-01

    Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.

  7. Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

    2013-07-01

    Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modelling. In this paper, we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modelling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalisation property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analysed on two real-world case studies - Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia) - representing two different morphoclimatic contexts. The evaluation is performed against other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

  8. United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

    1999-01-01

    Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

  9. Developing a calibrated CONUS-wide watershed-scale simulation platform for quantifying the influence of different sources of uncertainty on streamflow forecast skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, A. J.; Sampson, K. M.; Wood, A. W.; Hopson, T. M.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.; Clark, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Skill in model-based hydrologic forecasting depends on the ability to estimate a watershed's initial moisture and energy conditions, to forecast future weather and climate inputs, and on the quality of the hydrologic model's representation of watershed processes. The impact of these factors on prediction skill varies regionally, seasonally, and by model. We are investigating these influences using a watershed simulation platform that spans the continental US (CONUS), encompassing a broad range of hydroclimatic variation, and that uses the current simulation models of National Weather Service streamflow forecasting operations. The first phase of this effort centered on the implementation and calibration of the SNOW-17 and Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) based hydrologic modeling system for a range of watersheds. The base configuration includes 630 basins in the United States Geological Survey's Hydro-Climatic Data Network 2009 (HCDN-2009, Lins 2012) conterminous U.S. basin subset. Retrospective model forcings were derived from Daymet (http://daymet.ornl.gov/), and where available, a priori parameter estimates were based on or compared with the operational NWS model parameters. Model calibration was accomplished by several objective, automated strategies, including the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) optimization approach developed within the NWS in the early 1990s (Duan et al. 1993). This presentation describes outcomes from this effort, including insights about measuring simulation skill, and on relationships between simulation skill and model parameters, basin characteristics (climate, topography, vegetation, soils), and the quality of forcing inputs. References: %Z Thornton, P.; Thornton, M.; Mayer, B.; Wilhelmi, N.; Wei, Y.; Devarakonda, R; Cook, R. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather on a 1 km Grid for North America. 1980-2008; Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center: Oak Ridge, TN, USA, 2012; Volume 10.

  10. Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Wu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1 were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011–2030 (2020s, 2046–2065 (2050s, 2080–2099 (2090s, respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the

  11. Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Pan; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Liang, Sihai

    2018-06-01

    Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR) where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM) was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM) ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1) were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011-2030 (2020s), 2046-2065 (2050s), 2080-2099 (2090s), respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the future.

  12. Treating pre-instrumental data as "missing" data: using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate record and imputations to reconstruct streamflow in the Missouri River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, M. W.; Lall, U.; Cook, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    Advances in paleoclimatology in the past few decades have provided opportunities to expand the temporal perspective of the hydrological and climatological variability across the world. The North American region is particularly fortunate in this respect where a relatively dense network of high resolution paleoclimate proxy records have been assembled. One such network is the annually-resolved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a paleoclimate reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) that covers North America on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid based on tree-ring chronologies. However, the use of the LBDA to assess North American streamflow variability requires a model by which streamflow may be reconstructed. Paleoclimate reconstructions have typically used models that first seek to quantify the relationship between the paleoclimate variable and the environmental variable of interest before extrapolating the relationship back in time. In contrast, the pre-instrumental streamflow is here considered as "missing" data. A method of imputing the "missing" streamflow data, prior to the instrumental record, is applied through multiple imputation using chained equations for streamflow in the Missouri River Basin. In this method, the distribution of the instrumental streamflow and LBDA is used to estimate sets of plausible values for the "missing" streamflow data resulting in a ~600 year-long streamflow reconstruction. Past research into external climate forcings, oceanic-atmospheric variability and its teleconnections, and assessments of rare multi-centennial instrumental records demonstrate that large temporal oscillations in hydrological conditions are unlikely to be captured in most instrumental records. The reconstruction of multi-centennial records of streamflow will enable comprehensive assessments of current and future water resource infrastructure and operations under the existing scope of natural climate variability.

  13. Remote Sensing-based Methodologies for Snow Model Adjustments in Operational Streamflow Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, S.; Miller, W. P.; Bernard, B.; Stokes, M.; Oaida, C. M.; Painter, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Water management agencies rely on hydrologic forecasts issued by operational agencies such as NOAA's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). The CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate research-oriented, remotely-sensed snow data into CBRFC operations and to improve the accuracy of CBRFC forecasts. The partnership has yielded valuable analysis of snow surface albedo as represented in JPL's MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow (MODDRFS) data, across the CBRFC's area of responsibility. When dust layers within a snowpack emerge, reducing the snow surface albedo, the snowmelt rate may accelerate. The CBRFC operational snow model (SNOW17) is a temperature-index model that lacks explicit representation of snowpack surface albedo. CBRFC forecasters monitor MODDRFS data for emerging dust layers and may manually adjust SNOW17 melt rates. A technique was needed for efficient and objective incorporation of the MODDRFS data into SNOW17. Initial development focused in Colorado, where dust-on-snow events frequently occur. CBRFC forecasters used retrospective JPL-CBRFC analysis and developed a quantitative relationship between MODDRFS data and mean areal temperature (MAT) data. The relationship was used to generate adjusted, MODDRFS-informed input for SNOW17. Impacts of the MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT adjustment method on snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction varied spatially and with characteristics of the dust deposition events. The largest improvements occurred in southwestern Colorado, in years with intense dust deposition events. Application of the method in other regions of Colorado and in "low dust" years resulted in minimal impact. The MODDRFS-SNOW17 MAT technique will be implemented in CBRFC operations in late 2015, prior to spring 2016 runoff. Collaborative investigation of remote sensing-based adjustment methods for the CBRFC operational hydrologic forecasting environment will continue over the next several years.

  14. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.

    2018-01-01

    Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain

  15. Simulation of the Quantity, Variability, and Timing of Streamflow in the Dennys River Basin, Maine, by Use of a Precipitation-Runoff Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.

    2008-01-01

    .76, respectively. The Cathance Stream model had an NSE value of 0.68. The Dennys River Basin models make use of limited streamflow-gaging station data and provide information to characterize subbasin hydrology. The calibrated PRMS watershed models of the Dennys River Basin provide simulated daily streamflow time series from October 1, 1985, through September 30, 2006, for nearly any location within the basin. These models enable natural-resources managers to characterize the timing and quantity of water moving through the basin to support many endeavors including geochemical calculations, water-use assessment, Atlantic salmon population dynamics and migration modeling, habitat modeling and assessment, and other resource-management scenario evaluations. Characterizing streamflow contributions from subbasins in the basin and the relative amounts of surface- and ground-water contributions to streamflow throughout the basin will lead to a better understanding of water quantity and quality in the basin. Improved water-resources information will support Atlantic salmon protection efforts.

  16. Calibration parameters used to simulate streamflow from application of the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN Model (HSPF) to mountainous basins containing coal mines in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, John T.; Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Paybins, Katherine S.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN Model (HSPF) parameters for eight basins in the coal-mining region of West Virginia. The magnitude and characteristics of model parameters from this study will assist users of HSPF in simulating streamflow at other basins in the coal-mining region of West Virginia. The parameter for nominal capacity of the upper-zone storage, UZSN, increased from south to north. The increase in UZSN with the increase in basin latitude could be due to decreasing slopes, decreasing rockiness of the soils, and increasing soil depths from south to north. A special action was given to the parameter for fraction of ground-water inflow that flows to inactive ground water, DEEPFR. The basis for this special action was related to the seasonal movement of the water table and transpiration from trees. The models were most sensitive to DEEPFR and the parameter for interception storage capacity, CEPSC. The models were also fairly sensitive to the parameter for an index representing the infiltration capacity of the soil, INFILT; the parameter for indicating the behavior of the ground-water recession flow, KVARY; the parameter for the basic ground-water recession rate, AGWRC; the parameter for nominal capacity of the upper zone storage, UZSN; the parameter for the interflow inflow, INTFW; the parameter for the interflow recession constant, IRC; and the parameter for lower zone evapotranspiration, LZETP.

  17. Evaluation of Remotely Sensed Precipitation and its Performance for Streamflow Simulations in Basins of the Southeast Tibetan Plateau

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Sheng; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

    2015-01-01

    along with the CMORPH gauge–satellite blended version (C-ga), which is virtually C-adj in precipitation ungauged regions and is controlled by gauge analysis over regions of a dense station network, were intercompared with daily streamflow predicted by the distributed vegetation interface processes (VIP...

  18. Application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model to simulate streamflow in a PNW forest watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; E. Bruner; W. J. Elliot; I. S. Miller; J. Q. Wu

    2011-01-01

    Assessment of water yields from watersheds into streams and rivers is critical to managing water supply and supporting aquatic life. Surface runoff typically contributes the most to peak discharge of a hydrograph while subsurface flow dominates the falling limb of hydrograph and baseflow contributes to streamflow from shallow unconfined aquifers primarily during the...

  19. Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. G. Dos Santos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

  20. Simulated effects of existing and proposed surface-water impoundments and gas-well pads on streamflow and suspended sediment in the Cypress Creek watershed, Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Rheannon M.

    2014-01-01

    Cypress Creek is located in central Arkansas and is the main tributary to Brewer Lake, which serves as the primary water supply for Conway, Arkansas, and the surrounding areas. A model of the Cypress Creek watershed was developed and calibrated in cooperation with Southwestern Energy Company using detailed precipitation, streamflow, and discrete suspended-sediment data collected from 2009 through 2012. These data were used with a Hydrologic Simulation Program—FORTRAN model to address different potential gas-extraction activities within the watershed.

  1. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  2. Isotope-based partitioning of streamflow in the oil sands region, northern Alberta: Towards a monitoring strategy for assessing flow sources and water quality controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.J. Gibson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: This study is based on the rapidly developing Athabasca Oil Sands region, northeastern Alberta. Study focus: Hydrograph separation using stable isotopes of water is applied to partition streamflow sources in the Athabasca River and its tributaries. Distinct isotopic labelling of snow, rain, groundwater and surface water are applied to estimate the contribution of these sources to streamflow from analysis of multi-year records of isotopes in streamflow. New hydrological insights for the region: The results provide new insight into runoff generation mechanisms operating in six tributaries and at four stations along the Athabasca River. Groundwater, found to be an important flow source at all stations, is the dominant component of the hydrograph in three tributaries (Steepbank R., Muskeg R., Firebag R., accounting for 39–50% of annual streamflow. Surface water, mainly drainage from peatlands, is also found to be widely important, and dominant in three tributaries (Clearwater R., Mackay R., Ells R., accounting for 45–81% of annual streamflow. Fairly limited contributions from direct precipitation illustrate that most snow and rain events result in indirect displacement of pre-event water by fill and spill mechanisms. Systematic shifts in regional groundwater to surface-water ratios are expected to be an important control on spatial and temporal distribution of water quality parameters and useful for evaluating the susceptibility of rivers to climate and development impacts. Keywords: Stable isotopes, Hydrograph separation, Groundwater, Surface water, Snowmelt, Oil sands

  3. SnowCloud - a Framework to Predict Streamflow in Snowmelt-dominated Watersheds Using Cloud-based Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sproles, E. A.; Crumley, R. L.; Nolin, A. W.; Mar, E.; Lopez-Moreno, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow in snowy mountain regions is extraordinarily challenging to forecast, and prediction efforts are hampered by the lack of timely snow data—particularly in data sparse regions. SnowCloud is a prototype web-based framework that integrates remote sensing, cloud computing, interactive mapping tools, and a hydrologic model to offer a new paradigm for delivering key data to water resource managers. We tested the skill of SnowCloud to forecast monthly streamflow with one month lead time in three snow-dominated headwaters. These watersheds represent a range of precipitation/runoff schemes: the Río Elqui in northern Chile (200 mm/yr, entirely snowmelt); the John Day River, Oregon, USA (635 mm/yr, primarily snowmelt); and the Río Aragon in the northern Spain (850 mm/yr, snowmelt dominated). Model skill corresponded to snowpack contribution with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.86, 0.52, and 0.21 respectively. SnowCloud does not require the user to possess advanced programming skills or proprietary software. We access NASA's MOD10A1 snow cover product to calculate the snow metrics globally using Google Earth Engine's geospatial analysis and cloud computing service. The analytics and forecast tools are provided through a web-based portal that requires only internet access and minimal training. To test the efficacy of SnowCloud we provided the tools and a series of tutorials in English and Spanish to water resource managers in Chile, Spain, and the United States. Participants assessed their user experience and provided feedback, and the results of our multi-cultural assessment are also presented. While our results focus on SnowCloud, they outline methods to develop cloud-based tools that function effectively across cultures and languages. Our approach also addresses the primary challenges of science-based computing; human resource limitations, infrastructure costs, and expensive proprietary software. These challenges are particularly problematic in developing

  4. Hydrology and numerical simulation of groundwater flow and streamflow depletion by well withdrawals in the Malad-Lower Bear River Area, Box Elder County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolp, Bernard J.; Brooks, Lynette E.; Solder, John

    2017-03-28

    the relation between pumping and the reduction in discharge to rivers, springs, natural vegetation, and field drains. Simulations run by the calibrated model were used to calculate the reduction of groundwater discharge to the Malad River (stream depletion) in response to a well withdrawal of 360 acre-ft/yr at any location within the study area. Modeling results show that streamflow depletion in the Malad River depends on both depth and location of groundwater withdrawal, and varies from less than 1 percent to 96 percent of the well withdrawal. The relation between simulated withdrawal and reductions in Malad River streamflow, Bear River streamflow, and spring discharge are shown on capture maps.

  5. Application of the geological streamflow and Muskingum Cunge ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of the geological streamflow and Muskingum Cunge models in the Yala River Basin, Kenya. ... can be represented by the application of hydrologic and hydraulic models. ... verification and streamflow routing based on a split record analysis.

  6. Simulation of wastewater effects on dissolved oxygen during low streamflow in the Red River of the North at Fargo, North Dakota, and Moorhead, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesolowski, Edwin A.

    1996-01-01

    Pursuant to Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act, both North Dakota and Minnesota identified part of the Red River of the North (Red River) as water-quality limited. The states are required to determine the total maximum daily load (TMDL) that can be discharged to a water-quality limited reach from various pollution sources without contravening water-quality standards (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1991). A work group consisting of local, State, and Federal agency representatives that was organized in June 1994 decided that a TMDL should be developed in phases for a subreach of the Red River at Fargo, N. Dak., and Moorhead, Minn. (fig. 1). In the first phase, which is the basis for this report, the focus is on attainment of the instream dissolved-oxygen (DO) standard during low streamflows, and only Fargo and Moorhead wastewater-treatment-plant discharges and Sheyenne River inflow are considered. The study reach begins about 0.1 mile (mi) downstream (north) of the 12th Avenue North bridge in Fargo and extends 30.8 mi downstream to a site 0.8 mi upstream of the confluence of the Buffalo and Red Rivers (fig. 1). Nitrification of total ammonia (ammonia) from Fargo and Moorhead wastewater consumes most of the DO in the study reach (Wesolowski, 1994). Because the new (1995) Fargo plant already is nitrifying its wastewater, the work group needed to determine the maximum ammonia concentration for wastewater from the nonnitrifying Moorhead plant. To accomplish this task, the Red River at Fargo Water-Quality (RRatFGO QW) model (Wesolowski, 1994, 1996b) was used to simulate the effects of various wastewater-management alternatives during low streamflow. This report presents the results of those simulations to determine the usefulness of the model for management decisions. The simulations and report were completed in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health.

  7. Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

    2015-04-01

    Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

  8. Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

    2017-11-01

    Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased

  9. Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011–2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011–2040 to 1961–2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its

  10. Modeling multisite streamflow dependence with maximum entropy copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Z.; Singh, V. P.

    2013-10-01

    Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation, and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

  11. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  12. Simulation of the Effects of Water Withdrawals, Wastewater Return Flows, and Land-Use Change on Streamflow in the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

    2007-01-01

    Streamflow in many parts of the Blackstone River Basin in south-central Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is altered by water-supply withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change associated with a growing population. Simulations from a previously developed and calibrated Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model for the basin were used to evaluate the effects of water withdrawals, wastewater-return flows, and land-use change on streamflow. Most of the simulations were done for recent (1996?2001) conditions and potential buildout conditions in the future when all available land is developed to provide a long-range assessment of the effects of possible future human activities on water resources in the basin. The effects of land-use change were evaluated by comparing the results of long-term (1960?2004) simulations with (1) undeveloped land use, (2) 1995?1999 land use, and (3) potential buildout land use at selected sites across the basin. Flow-duration curves for these land-use scenarios were similar, indicating that land-use change, as represented in the HSPF model, had little effect on flow in the major tributary streams and rivers in the basin. However, land-use change?particularly increased effective impervious area?could potentially have greater effects on the hydrology, water quality, and aquatic habitat of the smaller streams in the basin. The effects of water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows were evaluated by comparing the results of long-term simulations with (1) no withdrawals and return flows, (2) actual (measured) 1996?2001 withdrawals and wastewater-return flows, and (3) potential withdrawals and wastewater-return flows at buildout. Overall, the results indicated that water use had a much larger effect on streamflow than did land use, and that the location and magnitude of wastewater-return flows were important for lessening the effects of withdrawals on streamflow in the Blackstone River Basin

  13. Watershed Data Management (WDM) database for West Branch DuPage River streamflow simulation, DuPage County, Illinois, January 1, 2007, through September 30, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bera, Maitreyee

    2017-10-16

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the DuPage County Stormwater Management Department, maintains a database of hourly meteorological and hydrologic data for use in a near real-time streamflow simulation system. This system is used in the management and operation of reservoirs and other flood-control structures in the West Branch DuPage River watershed in DuPage County, Illinois. The majority of the precipitation data are collected from a tipping-bucket rain-gage network located in and near DuPage County. The other meteorological data (air temperature, dewpoint temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation) are collected at Argonne National Laboratory in Argonne, Ill. Potential evapotranspiration is computed from the meteorological data using the computer program LXPET (Lamoreux Potential Evapotranspiration). The hydrologic data (water-surface elevation [stage] and discharge) are collected at U.S.Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in and around DuPage County. These data are stored in a Watershed Data Management (WDM) database.This report describes a version of the WDM database that is quality-assured and quality-controlled annually to ensure datasets are complete and accurate. This database is named WBDR13.WDM. It contains data from January 1, 2007, through September 30, 2013. Each precipitation dataset may have time periods of inaccurate data. This report describes the methods used to estimate the data for the periods of missing, erroneous, or snowfall-affected data and thereby improve the accuracy of these data. The other meteorological datasets are described in detail in Over and others (2010), and the hydrologic datasets in the database are fully described in the online USGS annual water data reports for Illinois (U.S. Geological Survey, 2016) and, therefore, are described in less detail than the precipitation datasets in this report.

  14. Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

    2016-08-23

    A groundwater/surface-water model was constructed and calibrated for the Black Earth Creek watershed in south-central Wisconsin. The model was then run to simulate scenarios representing common societal concerns in the basin, focusing on maintaining a cold-water resource in an urbanizing fringe near its upper stream reaches and minimizing downstream flooding. Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, many hydrologic models simplistically simulate feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system; however, computer models can now routinely and iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems—albeit with longer model run times. In this study, preliminary calibrations of uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to form the starting point for final calibration of one transient computer simulation that iteratively couples groundwater and surface water. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, and streams. The coupled GSFLOW model was run on a daily time step during water years 1985–2007. Early simulation times (1985–2000) were used for spin-up to make the simulation results less sensitive to initial conditions specified; the spin-up period was not included in the model calibration. Model calibration used observed heads, streamflows, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements from 2000 to 2007 for history matching. Calibration was performed by using the PEST parameter estimation software suite.

  15. Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2003-04-01

    Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

  16. Estimation of tile drainage contribution to streamflow and nutrient loads at the watershed scale based on continuously monitored data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas Amado, A; Schilling, K E; Jones, C S; Thomas, N; Weber, L J

    2017-09-01

    Nitrogen losses from artificially drained watersheds degrade water quality at local and regional scales. In this study, we used an end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) together with high temporal resolution water quality and streamflow data collected in the 122 km 2 Otter Creek watershed located in northeast Iowa. We estimated the contribution of three end-members (groundwater, tile drainage, and quick flow) to streamflow and nitrogen loads and tested several combinations of possible nitrate concentrations for the end-members. Results indicated that subsurface tile drainage is responsible for at least 50% of the watershed nitrogen load between April 15 and November 1, 2015. Tiles delivered up to 80% of the stream N load while providing only 15-43% of the streamflow, whereas quick flows only marginally contributed to N loading. Data collected offer guidance about areas of the watershed that should be targeted for nitrogen export mitigation strategies.

  17. WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

  18. Evaluating a Radar-Based, Non Contact Streamflow Measurement System in the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ralph T.; Gartner, Jeffrey W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Costa, John E.; Plant, William J.; Spicer, Kurt R.; Haeni, F. Peter; Melcher, Nick B.; Keller, William C.; Hayes, Ken

    2004-01-01

    Accurate measurement of flow in the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, California, is vital to a wide range of Federal and State agencies, environmental interests, and water contractors. The U.S. Geological Survey uses a conventional stage-discharge rating technique to determine flows at Vernalis. Since the flood of January 1997, the channel has scoured and filled as much as 20 feet in some sections near the measurement site resulting in an unstable stage-discharge rating. In response to recent advances in measurement techniques and the need for more accurate measurement methods, the Geological Survey has undertaken a technology demonstration project to develop and deploy a radar-based streamflow measuring system on the bank of the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, California. The proposed flow-measurement system consists of a ground-penetrating radar system for mapping channel geometries, a microwave radar system for measuring surface velocities, and other necessary infrastructure. Cross-section information derived from ground penetrating radar provided depths similar to those measured by other instruments during the study. Likewise, surface-velocity patterns and magnitudes measured by the pulsed Doppler radar system are consistent with near surface current measurements derived from acoustic velocity instruments. Since the ratio of surface velocity to mean velocity falls to within a small range of theoretical value, using surface velocity as an index velocity to compute river discharge is feasable. Ultimately, the non-contact radar system may be used to make continuous, near-real-time flow measurements during high and medium flows. This report documents the data collected between April 14, 2002 and May 17, 2002 for the purposes of testing this radar based system. Further analyses of the data collected during this field effort will lead to further development and improvement of the system.

  19. Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

    2013-01-01

    Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period

  20. Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

    2010-12-01

    Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

  1. Evaluating the APEX model for simulating streamflow and water quality on ten agricultural watersheds in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simulation models are increasingly used to assess water quality constituent losses from agricultural systems. Mis-use often gives irrelevant or erroneous answers. The Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX) model is emerging as one of the premier modeling tools for fields, farms, and agr...

  2. Streamflow Gaging Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows selected streamflow gaging stations of the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, in 2013. Gaging stations, or gages, measure...

  3. Streamflow conditions along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    2017-11-14

    The availability of adequate water to meet the present (2017) and future needs of humans, fish, and wildlife is a fundamental issue for the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation in northeast Kansas. Because Soldier Creek flows through the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation Reservation, it is an important tribal resource. An understanding of historical Soldier Creek streamflow conditions is required for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages along Soldier Creek were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends by Juracek (2017). Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to compute annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Results of the assessment are summarized in this fact sheet.

  4. Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

    2016-12-01

    The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the

  5. How Hydroclimate Influences the Effectiveness of Particle Filter Data Assimilation of Streamflow in Initializing Short- to Medium-range Streamflow Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Short- to medium-range (1- to 7-day) streamflow forecasts are important for flood control operations and in issuing potentially life-save flood warnings. In the U.S., the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue such forecasts in real time, depending heavily on a manual data assimilation (DA) approach. Forecasters adjust model inputs, states, parameters and outputs based on experience and consideration of a range of supporting real-time information. Achieving high-quality forecasts from new automated, centralized forecast systems will depend critically on the adequacy of automated DA approaches to make analogous corrections to the forecasting system. Such approaches would further enable systematic evaluation of real-time flood forecasting methods and strategies. Toward this goal, we have implemented a real-time Sequential Importance Resampling particle filter (SIR-PF) approach to assimilate observed streamflow into simulated initial hydrologic conditions (states) for initializing ensemble flood forecasts. Assimilating streamflow alone in SIR-PF improves simulated streamflow and soil moisture during the model spin up period prior to a forecast, with consequent benefits for forecasts. Nevertheless, it only consistently limits error in simulated snow water equivalent during the snowmelt season and in basins where precipitation falls primarily as snow. We examine how the simulated initial conditions with and without SIR-PF propagate into 1- to 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasts are evaluated in terms of reliability and skill over a 10-year period from 2005-2015. The focus of this analysis is on how interactions between hydroclimate and SIR-PF performance impact forecast skill. To this end, we examine forecasts for 5 hydroclimatically diverse basins in the western U.S. Some of these basins receive most of their precipitation as snow, others as rain. Some freeze throughout the mid-winter while others experience significant mid-winter melt

  6. The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. United States streamflow probabilities and uncertainties based on anticipated El Niño, water year 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.; Redmond, K.

    2002-01-01

    During the course of spring and summer 2002, tropical sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed and the wind and pressure fields have shifted, so that by August, there was considerable confidence that water year (October–September) 2003 will be characterized by a weak to mild El Niño climate (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/200208/QuickLook.html). At the same time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern of sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific (Mantua et al., 1997) has shifted towards a more neutral state than in the past several years and will not be considered in detail here. Previous studies of the connections between El Niños and streamflow in the United States by the authors (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., 2001) indicate that El Niño conditions influence historical streamflow distributions to varying extents. These conclusions, along with those of other researchers, suggest that foreknowledge of El Niño conditions can inform seasonal outlooks for streamflows throughout the Americas and elsewhere. For example, Dettinger et al. (2001), as distilled here into Fig. 1, showed that historical annual streamflow totals have correlated negatively with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, which is negatively associated with El Niños) in the U.S. Southwest as well as in the subtropics of South America, and correlate positively in the U.S. Northwest, in much of tropical South America, and, perhaps, in southernmost South America. These interhemispheric bands of El Niño influence are a matter of considerable concern for water- and land-managers throughout the Americas, and expand upon results from previous studies in the western United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992), including a recent analysis by Pizarro and Lall (2002), where water availability and hydrologic extremes are particularly pressing issues.

  8. Streamflow depletion by wells--Understanding and managing the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Paul M.; Leake, Stanley A.

    2012-11-02

    Groundwater is an important source of water for many human needs, including public supply, agriculture, and industry. With the development of any natural resource, however, adverse consequences may be associated with its use. One of the primary concerns related to the development of groundwater resources is the effect of groundwater pumping on streamflow. Groundwater and surface-water systems are connected, and groundwater discharge is often a substantial component of the total flow of a stream. Groundwater pumping reduces the amount of groundwater that flows to streams and, in some cases, can draw streamflow into the underlying groundwater system. Streamflow reductions (or depletions) caused by pumping have become an important water-resource management issue because of the negative impacts that reduced flows can have on aquatic ecosystems, the availability of surface water, and the quality and aesthetic value of streams and rivers. Scientific research over the past seven decades has made important contributions to the basic understanding of the processes and factors that affect streamflow depletion by wells. Moreover, advances in methods for simulating groundwater systems with computer models provide powerful tools for estimating the rates, locations, and timing of streamflow depletion in response to groundwater pumping and for evaluating alternative approaches for managing streamflow depletion. The primary objective of this report is to summarize these scientific insights and to describe the various field methods and modeling approaches that can be used to understand and manage streamflow depletion. A secondary objective is to highlight several misconceptions concerning streamflow depletion and to explain why these misconceptions are incorrect.

  9. Testing for Stationarity and Nonlinearity of Daily Streamflow Time Series Based on Different Statistical Tests (Case Study: Upstream Basin Rivers of Zarrineh Roud Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Fathian

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Time series models are one of the most important tools for investigating and modeling hydrological processes in order to solve problems related to water resources management. Many hydrological time series shows nonstationary and nonlinear behaviors. One of the important hydrological modeling tasks is determining the existence of nonstationarity and the way through which we can access the stationarity accordingly. On the other hand, streamflow processes are usually considered as nonlinear mechanisms while in many studies linear time series models are used to model streamflow time series. However, it is not clear what kind of nonlinearity is acting underlying the streamflowprocesses and how intensive it is. Materials and Methods: Streamflow time series of 6 hydro-gauge stations located in the upstream basin rivers of ZarrinehRoud dam (located in the southern part of Urmia Lake basin have been considered to investigate stationarity and nonlinearity. All data series used here to startfrom January 1, 1997, and end on December 31, 2011. In this study, stationarity is tested by ADF and KPSS tests and nonlinearity is tested by BDS, Keenan and TLRT tests. The stationarity test is carried out with two methods. Thefirst one method is the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF unit root test first proposed by Dickey and Fuller (1979 and modified by Said and Dickey (1984, which examinsthe presence of unit roots in time series.The second onemethod is KPSS test, proposed by Kwiatkowski et al. (1992, which examinesthestationarity around a deterministic trend (trend stationarity and the stationarity around a fixed level (level stationarity. The BDS test (Brock et al., 1996 is a nonparametric method for testing the serial independence and nonlinear structure in time series based on the correlation integral of the series. The null hypothesis is the time series sample comes from an independent identically distributed (i.i.d. process. The alternative hypothesis

  10. Streamflow predictions under climate scenarios in the Boulder Creek Watershed at Orodell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Q.; Williams, M. W.; Livneh, B.

    2016-12-01

    Mountainous areas have complex geological features and climatic variability, which limit our ability to simulate and predict hydrologic processes, especially in face to a changing climate. Hydrologic models can improve our understanding of land surface water and energy budgets in these regions. In this study, a distributed physically-based hydrologic model is applied to the Boulder Creek Watershed, USA to study streamflow conditions under future climatic scenarios. Model parameters were adjusted using observed streamflow data at 1/16th degree resolution, with a NSE value of 0.69. The results from CMIP5 models can give a general range of streamflow conditions under different climatic scenarios. Two scenarios are being applied, including the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 has higher emission concentrations than RCP 4.5, but not very significant in the period of study. Using pair t-test and Mann-Whitney test at specific grid cells to compare modeled and observed climate data, four CMIP5 models were chosen to predict streamflow from 2010 to 2025. Of the four models, two models predicted increased precipitation, while the other two models predicted decreased precipitation, and the four models predicted increased minimum and maximum temperature in RCP 4.5. Average streamflow decreased by 2% 14%, while maximum SWE varies from -7% to +210% from 2010 to 2025, relative to 2006 to 2010. In RCP 8.5, three models predicted increased precipitation, while the other one model predicted decreased precipitation, and the four models predicted increased maximum and minimum temperature. Besides one model, the other three models predicted increased average streamflow by 3.5% 32%, which results from the higher increasing magnitude in precipitation. Maximum SWE varies by 6% 55% higher than that from 2006 to 2010. This study shows that average daily maximum and minimum temperature will increase toward 2025 from different climate models, while average streamflow will decrease in RCP 4

  11. Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Tijdeman

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA. A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1 the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils, (2 the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3 the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for

  12. Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

    2018-02-01

    Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff) of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA). A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1) the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils), (2) the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3) the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for some of the

  13. Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenliang Yin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the long term impacts of climate and land cover change on streamflow is of great important for sustainable water resources management in inland river basins. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was employed to simulate the streamflow in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwestern China, over the last half century. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2 was selected to calibrate and validate the SWAT model. The results showed that both Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and determination coefficient (R2 were over 0.93 for calibration and validation periods, the percent bias (PBIAS of the two periods were—3.47% and 1.81%, respectively. The precipitation, average, maximum, and minimum air temperature were all showing increasing trends, with 14.87 mm/10 years, 0.30 °C/10 years, 0.27 °C/10 year, and 0.37 °C/10 years, respectively. Runoff coefficient has increased from 0.36 (averaged during 1964 to 1988 to 0.39 (averaged during 1989 to 2013. Based on the SWAT simulation, we quantified the contribution of climate and land cover change to streamflow change, indicated that the land cover change had a positive impact on river discharge by increasing 7.12% of the streamflow during 1964 to 1988, and climate change contributed 14.08% for the streamflow increasing over last 50 years. Meanwhile, the climate change impact was intensive after 2000s. The increasing of streamflow contributed to the increasing of total streamflow by 64.1% for cold season (November to following March and 35.9% for warm season (April to October. The results provide some references for dealing with climate and land cover change in an inland river basin for water resource management and planning.

  14. Simulation-based surgical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evgeniou, Evgenios; Loizou, Peter

    2013-09-01

    The reduction in time for training at the workplace has created a challenge for the traditional apprenticeship model of training. Simulation offers the opportunity for repeated practice in a safe and controlled environment, focusing on trainees and tailored to their needs. Recent technological advances have led to the development of various simulators, which have already been introduced in surgical training. The complexity and fidelity of the available simulators vary, therefore depending on our recourses we should select the appropriate simulator for the task or skill we want to teach. Educational theory informs us about the importance of context in professional learning. Simulation should therefore recreate the clinical environment and its complexity. Contemporary approaches to simulation have introduced novel ideas for teaching teamwork, communication skills and professionalism. In order for simulation-based training to be successful, simulators have to be validated appropriately and integrated in a training curriculum. Within a surgical curriculum, trainees should have protected time for simulation-based training, under appropriate supervision. Simulation-based surgical education should allow the appropriate practice of technical skills without ignoring the clinical context and must strike an adequate balance between the simulation environment and simulators. © 2012 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  15. U.S. Geological Survey groundwater toolbox, a graphical and mapping interface for analysis of hydrologic data (version 1.0): user guide for estimation of base flow, runoff, and groundwater recharge from streamflow data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Paul M.; Cunningham, William L.; Zhai, Tong; Gray, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This report is a user guide for the streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Toolbox computer program. These include six hydrograph-separation methods to determine the groundwater-discharge (base-flow) and surface-runoff components of streamflow—the Base-Flow Index (BFI; Standard and Modified), HYSEP (Fixed Interval, Sliding Interval, and Local Minimum), and PART methods—and the RORA recession-curve displacement method and associated RECESS program to estimate groundwater recharge from streamflow data. The Groundwater Toolbox is a customized interface built on the nonproprietary, open source MapWindow geographic information system software. The program provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Microsoft Windows computing environment. In addition to the four hydrograph-analysis methods, the Groundwater Toolbox allows for the retrieval of hydrologic time-series data (streamflow, groundwater levels, and precipitation) from the USGS National Water Information System, downloading of a suite of preprocessed geographic information system coverages and meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center, and analysis of data with several preprocessing and postprocessing utilities. With its data retrieval and analysis tools, the Groundwater Toolbox provides methods to estimate many of the components of the water budget for a hydrologic basin, including precipitation; streamflow; base flow; runoff; groundwater recharge; and total, groundwater, and near-surface evapotranspiration.

  16. Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...

  17. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-01-01

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  18. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  19. Simulation of groundwater flow and streamflow depletion in the Branch Brook, Merriland River, and parts of the Mousam River watersheds in southern Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Martha G.; Locke, Daniel B.

    2015-01-01

    Watersheds of three streams, the Mousam River, Branch Brook, and Merriland River in southeastern Maine were investigated from 2010 through 2013 under a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Maine Geological Survey. The Branch Brook watershed previously had been deemed “at risk” by the Maine Geological Survey because of the proportionally large water withdrawals compared to estimates of the in-stream flow requirements for habitat protection. The primary groundwater withdrawals in the study area include a water-supply well in the headwaters of the system and three water-supply wells in the coastal plain near the downstream end of the system. A steady-state groundwater flow model was used to understand the movement of water within the system, to evaluate the water budget and the effect of groundwater withdrawals on streamflows, and to understand streamflow depletion in relation to the State of Maine’s requirements to maintain in-stream flows for habitat protection.

  20. Impacts of uncertainties in weather and streamflow observations in calibration and evaluation of an elevation distributed HBV-model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.; Steinsland, I.; Petersen-Øverleir, A.; Johansen, S.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the uncertainties in streamflow simulations when uncertainties in both observed inputs (precipitation and temperature) and streamflow observations used in the calibration of the hydrological model are explicitly accounted for. To achieve this goal we applied the elevation distributed HBV model operating on daily time steps to a small catchment in high elevation in Southern Norway where the seasonal snow cover is important. The uncertainties in precipitation inputs were quantified using conditional simulation. This procedure accounts for the uncertainty related to the density of the precipitation network, but neglects uncertainties related to measurement bias/errors and eventual elevation gradients in precipitation. The uncertainties in temperature inputs were quantified using a Bayesian temperature interpolation procedure where the temperature lapse rate is re-estimated every day. The uncertainty in the lapse rate was accounted for whereas the sampling uncertainty related to network density was neglected. For every day a random sample of precipitation and temperature inputs were drawn to be applied as inputs to the hydrologic model. The uncertainties in observed streamflow were assessed based on the uncertainties in the rating curve model. A Bayesian procedure was applied to estimate the probability for rating curve models with 1 to 3 segments and the uncertainties in their parameters. This method neglects uncertainties related to errors in observed water levels. Note that one rating curve was drawn to make one realisation of a whole time series of streamflow, thus the rating curve errors lead to a systematic bias in the streamflow observations. All these uncertainty sources were linked together in both calibration and evaluation of the hydrologic model using a DREAM based MCMC routine. Effects of having less information (e.g. missing one streamflow measurement for defining the rating curve or missing one precipitation station

  1. Impacts of Recent Climatic Wetting on Distributed Snow and Streamflow Responses in a Terminal Lake Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hoy, D.; Mahmood, T. H.; Jeannotte, T.; Todhunter, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    The recent shift in hydroclimatic conditions in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) has led to an increase in precipitation, rainfall rate, and wetland connectivity over the last few decades. These changes yield an integrated response resulting in high mean annual streamflow and subsequent flooding in many NGP basins such as the terminal Devils Lake Basin (DLB). In this study, we investigate the impacts of recent climatic wetting on distributed hydrologic responses such as snow processes and streamflow using a field-tested and physically-based cold region hydrologic model (CRHM). CHRM is designed for cold prairie regions and has modules to simulate major processes such as blowing snow transport, sublimation, interception, frozen soil infiltration, snowmelt and subsequent streamflow generation. Our modeling focuses on a tributary basin of the DLB known as the Mauvais Coulee Basin (MCB). Since there were no snow observations in the MCB, we conducted a detailed snow survey at distributed locations estimating snow depth, density, and snow water equivalent (SWE) using a prairie snow tube four times during winter of 2016-17. The MCB model was evaluated against distributed snow observations and streamflow measured at the basin outlet (USGS) for the year 2016-2017. Preliminary results indicate that the simulated SWEs at distributed locations and streamflow (NSE ≈ 0.70) are in good agreement with observations. The simulated SWE maps exhibit large spatiotemporal variation during 2016-17 winter due to spatial variability in precipitation, snow redistribution from stubble field to wooded areas, and snow accumulations in small depressions across the subbasins. The main source of snow appears to be the hills and ridges of the eastern and western edges of the basin, while the main sink is the large flat central valleys. The model will be used to examine the effect of recent changes to precipitation and temperature on snow processes and subsequent streamflow for 2004-2017 season. We

  2. The Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Change on Streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangwen Shao

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The Hailiutu River basin is a typical semi-arid wind sandy grass shoal watershed in northwest China. Climate and land use have changed significantly during the period 1970–2014. These changes are expected to impact hydrological processes in the basin. The Mann–Kendall (MK test and sequential t-test analysis of the regime shift method were used to detect the trend and shifts of the hydrometeorological time series. Based on the analyzed results, seven scenarios were developed by combining different land use and/or climate situations. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to analyze the impacts of climate variability and land use change on the values of the hydrological components. The China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS was applied to enhance the spatial expressiveness of precipitation data in the study area during the period 2008–2014. Rather than solely using observed precipitation or CMADS precipitation, the precipitation values of CMADS and the observed precipitation values were combined to drive the SWAT model for better simulation results. From the trend analysis, the annual streamflow and wind speed showed a significant downward trend. No significant trend was found for the annual precipitation series; however, the temperature series showed upward trends. With the change point analysis, the whole study period was divided into three sub-periods (1970–1985, 1986–2000, and 2001–2014. The annual precipitation, mean wind speed, and average temperature values were 316 mm, 2.62 m/s, and 7.9 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 1970–1985, 272 mm, 2.58 m/s, and 8.4 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 1986–2000, and 391 mm, 2.2 m/s, and 9.35 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 2001–2014. The simulated mean annual streamflow was 35.09 mm/year during the period 1970–1985. Considering the impact of the climate variability, the simulated mean annual streamflow values were

  3. Simulation Package based on Placet

    CERN Document Server

    D'Amico, T E; Leros, Nicolas; Schulte, Daniel

    2001-01-01

    The program PLACET is used to simulate transverse and longitudinal beam effects in the main linac, the drive-beam accelerator and the drive-beam decelerators of CLIC, as well as in the linac of CTF3. It provides different models of accelerating and decelerating structures, linear optics and thin multipoles. Several methods of beam-based alignment, including emittance tuning bumps and feedback, and different failure modes can be simulated. An interface to the beam-beam simulation code GUINEA-PIG exists. Currently, interfaces to MAD and TRANSPORT are under development and an extension to transfer lines and bunch compressors is also being made. In the future, the simulations will need to be performed by many users, which requires a simplified user interface. The paper describes the status of PLACET and plans for the futur

  4. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 3. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation - Modelling Deterministic Systems. N K Srinivasan. General Article Volume 6 Issue 3 March 2001 pp 46-54. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  5. Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iles, Carley E; Hegerl, Gabriele C

    2015-11-01

    Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1-6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8-10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20 th and late 19 th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions - a significant (peruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability.

  6. Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julie A. Vano,; Bradley Udall,; Cayan, Daniel; Jonathan T Overpeck,; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2014-01-01

    The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

  7. Inversion based on computational simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.; Saquib, S.S.

    1998-01-01

    A standard approach to solving inversion problems that involve many parameters uses gradient-based optimization to find the parameters that best match the data. The authors discuss enabling techniques that facilitate application of this approach to large-scale computational simulations, which are the only way to investigate many complex physical phenomena. Such simulations may not seem to lend themselves to calculation of the gradient with respect to numerous parameters. However, adjoint differentiation allows one to efficiently compute the gradient of an objective function with respect to all the variables of a simulation. When combined with advanced gradient-based optimization algorithms, adjoint differentiation permits one to solve very large problems of optimization or parameter estimation. These techniques will be illustrated through the simulation of the time-dependent diffusion of infrared light through tissue, which has been used to perform optical tomography. The techniques discussed have a wide range of applicability to modeling including the optimization of models to achieve a desired design goal

  8. Preliminary assessment of streamflow characteristics for selected streams at Fort Gordon, Georgia, 1999-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamey, Timothy C.

    2001-01-01

    In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, began collection of periodic streamflow data at four streams on the military base to assess and estimate streamflow characteristics of those streams for potential water-supply sources. Simple and reliable methods of determining streamflow characteristics of selected streams on the military base are needed for the initial implementation of the Fort Gordon Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. Long-term streamflow data from the Butler Creek streamflow gaging station were used along with several concurrent discharge measurements made at three selected partial-record streamflow stations on Fort Gordon to determine selected low-flow streamflow characteristics. Streamflow data were collected and analyzed using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods and computer application programs to verify the use of simple drainage area to discharge ratios, which were used to estimate the low-flow characteristics for the selected streams. Low-flow data computed based on daily mean streamflow include: mean discharges for consecutive 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day period and low-flow estimates of 7Q10, 30Q2, 60Q2, and 90Q2 recurrence intervals. Flow-duration data also were determined for the 10-, 30-, 50-, 70-, and 90-percent exceedence flows. Preliminary analyses of the streamflow indicate that the flow duration and selected low-flow statistics for the selected streams averages from about 0.15 to 2.27 cubic feet per square mile. The long-term gaged streamflow data indicate that the streamflow conditions for the period analyzed were in the 50- to 90-percent flow range, or in which streamflow would be exceeded about 50 to 90 percent of the time.

  9. Streamflow impacts of biofuel policy-driven landscape change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Khanal

    Full Text Available Likely changes in precipitation (P and potential evapotranspiration (PET resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979-2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity.

  10. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  11. Streamflow characteristics at hydrologic bench-mark stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, C.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Hydrologic Bench-Mark Network was established in the 1960's. Its objectives were to document the hydrologic characteristics of representative undeveloped watersheds nationwide and to provide a comparative base for studying the effects of man on the hydrologic environment. The network, which consists of 57 streamflow gaging stations and one lake-stage station in 39 States, is planned for permanent operation. This interim report describes streamflow characteristics at each bench-mark site and identifies time trends in annual streamflow that have occurred during the data-collection period. The streamflow characteristics presented for each streamflow station are (1) flood and low-flow frequencies, (2) flow duration, (3) annual mean flow, and (4) the serial correlation coefficient for annual mean discharge. In addition, Kendall's tau is computed as an indicator of time trend in annual discharges. The period of record for most stations was 13 to 17 years, although several stations had longer periods of record. The longest period was 65 years for Merced River near Yosemite, Calif. Records of flow at 6 of 57 streamflow sites in the network showed a statistically significant change in annual mean discharge over the period of record, based on computations of Kendall's tau. The values of Kendall's tau ranged from -0.533 to 0.648. An examination of climatological records showed that changes in precipitation were most likely the cause for the change in annual mean discharge.

  12. Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

    2016-04-05

    Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

  13. Impact of LUCC on streamflow based on the SWAT model over the Wei River basin on the Loess Plateau in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2017-04-01

    impact on both soil flow and baseflow by compensating for reduced surface runoff, which leads to a slight increase in the streamflow in the Wei River with the mixed landscapes on the Loess Plateau that include earth–rock mountain area.

  14. Effects of groundwater levels and headwater wetlands on streamflow in the Charlie Creek basin, Peace River watershed, west-central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T.M.; Sacks, L.A.; Hughes, J.D.

    2010-01-01

    The Charlie Creek basin was studied from April 2004 to December 2005 to better understand how groundwater levels in the underlying aquifers and storage and overflow of water from headwater wetlands preserve the streamflows exiting this least-developed tributary basin of the Peace River watershed. The hydrogeologic framework, physical characteristics, and streamflow were described and quantified for five subbasins of the 330-square mile Charlie Creek basin, allowing the contribution of its headwaters area and tributary subbasins to be separately quantified. A MIKE SHE model simulation of the integrated surface-water and groundwater flow processes in the basin was used to simulate daily streamflow observed over 21 months in 2004 and 2005 at five streamflow stations, and to quantify the monthly and annual water budgets for the five subbasins including the changing amount of water stored in wetlands. Groundwater heads were mapped in Zone 2 of the intermediate aquifer system and in the Upper Floridan aquifer, and were used to interpret the location of artesian head conditions in the Charlie Creek basin and its relation to streamflow. Artesian conditions in the intermediate aquifer system induce upward groundwater flow into the surficial aquifer and help sustain base flow which supplies about two-thirds of the streamflow from the Charlie Creek basin. Seepage measurements confirmed seepage inflow to Charlie Creek during the study period. The upper half of the basin, comprised largely of the Upper Charlie Creek subbasin, has lower runoff potential than the lower basin, more storage of runoff in wetlands, and periodically generates no streamflow. Artesian head conditions in the intermediate aquifer system were widespread in the upper half of the Charlie Creek basin, preventing downward leakage from expansive areas of wetlands and enabling them to act as headwaters to Charlie Creek once their storage requirements were met. Currently, the dynamic balance between wetland

  15. Sensitivity of Distributed Hydrologic Simulations to Ground and Satellite Based Rainfall Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singaiah Chintalapudi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, seven precipitation products (rain gauges, NEXRAD MPE, PERSIANN 0.25 degree, PERSIANN CCS-3hr, PERSIANN CCS-1hr, TRMM 3B42V7, and CMORPH were used to force a physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The model was driven by these products to simulate the hydrologic response of a 1232 km2 watershed in the Guadalupe River basin, Texas. Storm events in 2007 were used to analyze the precipitation products. Comparison with rain gauge observations reveals that there were significant biases in the satellite rainfall products and large variations in the estimated amounts. The radar basin average precipitation compared very well with the rain gauge product while the gauge-adjusted TRMM 3B42V7 precipitation compared best with observed rainfall among all satellite precipitation products. The NEXRAD MPE simulated streamflows matched the observed ones the best yielding the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency correlation coefficient values for both the July and August 2007 events. Simulations driven by TRMM 3B42V7 matched the observed streamflow better than other satellite products for both events. The PERSIANN coarse resolution product yielded better runoff results than the higher resolution product. The study reveals that satellite rainfall products are viable alternatives when rain gauge or ground radar observations are sparse or non-existent.

  16. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

    2004-01-01

    he accuracy of precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States, but overall, the accuracy of MOS-based precipitation forecasts is slightly lower than the raw NCEP forecasts. Four basins in the United States were chosen as case studies to evaluate the value of MRF output for predictions of streamflow. Streamflow forecasts using MRF output were generated for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado: East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). Hydrologic model output forced with measured-station data were used as "truth" to focus attention on the hydrologic effects of errors in the MRF forecasts. Eight-day streamflow forecasts produced using the MOS-corrected MRF output as input (MOS) were compared with those produced using the climatic Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique. MOS-based streamflow forecasts showed increased skill in the snowmelt-dominated river basins, where daily variations in streamflow are strongly forced by temperature. In contrast, the skill of MOS forecasts in the rainfall-dominated basin (the Alapaha River) were equivalent to the skill of the ESP forecasts. Further improvements in streamflow forecasts require more accurate local-scale forecasts of precipitation and temperature, more accurate specification of basin initial conditions, and more accurate model simulations of streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

  17. Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

    2018-03-01

    Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

  18. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  19. Free internet datasets for streamflow modelling using SWAT in the Johor river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, M. L.

    2014-02-01

    Streamflow modelling is a mathematical computational approach that represents terrestrial hydrology cycle digitally and is used for water resources assessment. However, such modelling endeavours require a large amount of data. Generally, governmental departments produce and maintain these data sets which make it difficult to obtain this data due to bureaucratic constraints. In some countries, the availability and quality of geospatial and climate datasets remain a critical issue due to many factors such as lacking of ground station, expertise, technology, financial support and war time. To overcome this problem, this research used public domain datasets from the Internet as "input" to a streamflow model. The intention is simulate daily and monthly streamflow of the Johor River Basin in Malaysia. The model used is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). As input free data including a digital elevation model (DEM), land use information, soil and climate data were used. The model was validated by in-situ streamflow information obtained from Rantau Panjang station for the year 2006. The coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.35/0.02 for daily simulated streamflow and 0.92/0.21 for monthly simulated streamflow, respectively. The results show that free data can provide a better simulation at a monthly scale compared to a daily basis in a tropical region. A sensitivity analysis and calibration procedure should be conducted in order to maximize the "goodness-of-fit" between simulated and observed streamflow. The application of Internet datasets promises an acceptable performance of streamflow modelling. This research demonstrates that public domain data is suitable for streamflow modelling in a tropical river basin within acceptable accuracy.

  20. Free internet datasets for streamflow modelling using SWAT in the Johor river basin, Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, M L

    2014-01-01

    Streamflow modelling is a mathematical computational approach that represents terrestrial hydrology cycle digitally and is used for water resources assessment. However, such modelling endeavours require a large amount of data. Generally, governmental departments produce and maintain these data sets which make it difficult to obtain this data due to bureaucratic constraints. In some countries, the availability and quality of geospatial and climate datasets remain a critical issue due to many factors such as lacking of ground station, expertise, technology, financial support and war time. To overcome this problem, this research used public domain datasets from the Internet as ''input'' to a streamflow model. The intention is simulate daily and monthly streamflow of the Johor River Basin in Malaysia. The model used is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). As input free data including a digital elevation model (DEM), land use information, soil and climate data were used. The model was validated by in-situ streamflow information obtained from Rantau Panjang station for the year 2006. The coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.35/0.02 for daily simulated streamflow and 0.92/0.21 for monthly simulated streamflow, respectively. The results show that free data can provide a better simulation at a monthly scale compared to a daily basis in a tropical region. A sensitivity analysis and calibration procedure should be conducted in order to maximize the ''goodness-of-fit'' between simulated and observed streamflow. The application of Internet datasets promises an acceptable performance of streamflow modelling. This research demonstrates that public domain data is suitable for streamflow modelling in a tropical river basin within acceptable accuracy

  1. IOD and ENSO impacts on the extreme stream-flows of Citarum river in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahu, Netrananda; Yamashiki, Yosuke; Takara, Kaoru [Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Innovative Disaster Prevention Technology and Policy Research Laboratory, Gokasho, Uji City, Kyoto (Japan); Behera, Swadhin K. [JAMSTEC, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); JAMSTEC, Application Laboratory, Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [University of Tokyo, School of Science, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo (Japan); JAMSTEC, Application Laboratory, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-10-15

    Extreme stream-flow events of Citarum River are derived from the daily stream-flows at the Nanjung gauge station. Those events are identified based on their persistently extreme flows for 6 or more days during boreal fall when the seasonal mean stream-flow starts peaking-up from the lowest seasonal flows of June-August. Most of the extreme events of high-streamflows were related to La Nina conditions of tropical Pacific. A few of them were also associated with the negative phases of IOD and the newly identified El Nino Modoki. Unlike the cases of extreme high streamflows, extreme low streamflow events are seen to be associated with the positive IODs. Nevertheless, it was also found that the low-stream-flow events related to positive IOD events were also associated with El Nino events except for one independent event of 1977. Because the occurrence season coincides the peak season of IOD, not only the picked extreme events are seen to fall under the IOD seasons but also there exists a statistically significant correlation of 0.51 between the seasonal IOD index and the seasonal streamflows. There also exists a significant lag correlation when IOD of June-August season leads the streamflows of September-November. A significant but lower correlation coefficient (0.39) is also found between the seasonal streamflow and El Nino for September-November season only. (orig.)

  2. IOD and ENSO impacts on the extreme stream-flows of Citarum river in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Netrananda; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamashiki, Yosuke; Takara, Kaoru; Yamagata, Toshio

    2012-10-01

    Extreme stream-flow events of Citarum River are derived from the daily stream-flows at the Nanjung gauge station. Those events are identified based on their persistently extreme flows for 6 or more days during boreal fall when the seasonal mean stream-flow starts peaking-up from the lowest seasonal flows of June-August. Most of the extreme events of high-streamflows were related to La Niña conditions of tropical Pacific. A few of them were also associated with the negative phases of IOD and the newly identified El Niño Modoki. Unlike the cases of extreme high streamflows, extreme low streamflow events are seen to be associated with the positive IODs. Nevertheless, it was also found that the low-stream-flow events related to positive IOD events were also associated with El Niño events except for one independent event of 1977. Because the occurrence season coincides the peak season of IOD, not only the picked extreme events are seen to fall under the IOD seasons but also there exists a statistically significant correlation of 0.51 between the seasonal IOD index and the seasonal streamflows. There also exists a significant lag correlation when IOD of June-August season leads the streamflows of September-November. A significant but lower correlation coefficient (0.39) is also found between the seasonal streamflow and El Niño for September-November season only.

  3. Causes of interannual to decadal variability of Gila River streamflow over the past century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Pascolini-Campbell

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter–spring (December–May, and summer (August–September. The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter–spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928–2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter–spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter–spring streamflow, with El Niño conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter–spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought. Keywords: Streamflow decadal variability, Drought, Pluvials, Treering, Teleconnections, North American Monsoon

  4. Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

  5. Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    2017-08-16

    Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

  6. Streamflow of 2016—Water year summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, Xiaodong; Wolock, David M.; Lins, Harry F.; Brady, Steven J.

    2017-09-26

    The maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2016 (October 1, 2015, to September 30, 2016) in the context of streamflow ranks relative to the 87-year period of 1930–2016, unless otherwise noted. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Streamflow Network. The period of 1930–2016 was used because the number of streamgages before 1930 was too small to provide representative data for computing statistics for most regions of the country.In the summary, reference is made to the term “runoff,” which is the depth to which a river basin, State, or other geographic area would be covered with water if all the streamflow within the area during a specified period was uniformly distributed on it. Runoff quantifies the magnitude of water flowing through the Nation’s rivers and streams in measurement units that can be compared from one area to another.In all the graphics, a rank of 1 indicates the highest flow of all years analyzed and 87 indicates the lowest flow of all years. Rankings of streamflow are grouped into much below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and much above normal based on percentiles of flow (less than 10 percent, 10–24 percent, 25–75 percent, 76–90 percent, and greater than 90 percent, respectively). Some of the data used to produce the maps and graphs are provisional and subject to change.

  7. Numerical simulation of baseflow modification due to effects of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerical simulation of baseflow modification due to effects of sediment yield. ... Physically-based mathematical modelling affords the opportunity to look at this kind of interaction, which should be simulated by deterministic responses of both water and fluvial processes. In addition to simulating the streamflow and ...

  8. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

  9. RELAP5 based engineering simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlton, T.R.; Laats, E.T.; Burtt, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    The INEL Engineering Simulation Center was established in 1988 to provide a modern, flexible, state-of-the-art simulation facility. This facility and two of the major projects which are part of the simulation center, the Advance Test Reactor (ATR) engineering simulator project and the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) advanced reactor control system, have been the subject of several papers in the past few years. Two components of the ATR engineering simulator project, RELAP5 and the Nuclear Plant Analyzer (NPA), have recently been improved significantly. This paper will present an overview of the INEL Engineering Simulation Center, and discuss the RELAP5/MOD3 and NPA/MOD1 codes, specifically how they are being used at the INEL Engineering Simulation Center. It will provide an update on the modifications to these two codes and their application to the ATR engineering simulator project, as well as, a discussion on the reactor system representation, control system modeling, two phase flow and heat transfer modeling. It will also discuss how these two codes are providing desktop, stand-alone reactor simulation. 12 refs., 2 figs

  10. RELAP5 based engineering simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlton, T.R.; Laats, E.T.; Burtt, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    The INEL Engineering Simulation Center was established in 1988 to provide a modern, flexible, state-of-the-art simulation facility. This facility and two of the major projects which are part of the simulation center, the Advance Test Reactor (ATR) engineering simulator project and the Experimental Breeder Reactor (EBR-II) advanced reactor control system, have been the subject of several papers in the past few years. Two components of the ATR engineering simulator project, RELAP5 and the Nuclear Plant Analyzer (NPA), have recently been improved significantly. This paper presents an overview of the INEL Engineering Simulation Center, and discusses the RELAP5/MOD3 and NPA/MOD1 codes, specifically how they are being used at the INEL Engineering Simulation Center. It provides an update on the modifications to these two codes and their application to the ATR engineering simulator project, as well as, a discussion on the reactor system representation, control system modeling, two phase flow and heat transfer modeling. It will also discuss how these two codes are providing desktop, stand-alone reactor simulation

  11. The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM – Part 1: The production of a daily streamflow archive and metadata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. X. Do

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This is the first part of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (GSIM, a worldwide collection of metadata and indices derived from more than 35 000 daily streamflow time series. This paper focuses on the compilation of the daily streamflow time series based on 12 free-to-access streamflow databases (seven national databases and five international collections. It also describes the development of three metadata products (freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477: (1 a GSIM catalogue collating basic metadata associated with each time series, (2 catchment boundaries for the contributing area of each gauge, and (3 catchment metadata extracted from 12 gridded global data products representing essential properties such as land cover type, soil type, and climate and topographic characteristics. The quality of the delineated catchment boundary is also made available and should be consulted in GSIM application. The second paper in the series then explores production and analysis of streamflow indices. Having collated an unprecedented number of stations and associated metadata, GSIM can be used to advance large-scale hydrological research and improve understanding of the global water cycle.

  12. The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 1: The production of a daily streamflow archive and metadata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, Hong Xuan; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2018-04-01

    This is the first part of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (GSIM), a worldwide collection of metadata and indices derived from more than 35 000 daily streamflow time series. This paper focuses on the compilation of the daily streamflow time series based on 12 free-to-access streamflow databases (seven national databases and five international collections). It also describes the development of three metadata products (freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477" target="_blank">https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477): (1) a GSIM catalogue collating basic metadata associated with each time series, (2) catchment boundaries for the contributing area of each gauge, and (3) catchment metadata extracted from 12 gridded global data products representing essential properties such as land cover type, soil type, and climate and topographic characteristics. The quality of the delineated catchment boundary is also made available and should be consulted in GSIM application. The second paper in the series then explores production and analysis of streamflow indices. Having collated an unprecedented number of stations and associated metadata, GSIM can be used to advance large-scale hydrological research and improve understanding of the global water cycle.

  13. Effects of streamflow diversion on a fish population: combining empirical data and individual-based models in a site-specific evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bret C. Harvey; Jason L. White; Rodney J. Nakamoto; Steven F. Railsback

    2014-01-01

    Resource managers commonly face the need to evaluate the ecological consequences of specific water diversions of small streams. We addressed this need by conducting 4 years of biophysical monitoring of stream reaches above and below a diversion and applying two individual-based models of salmonid fish that simulated different levels of behavioral complexity. The...

  14. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

    2018-02-01

    Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

  15. Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Santiago

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta, and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. −49 % by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 °C, although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 °C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

  16. Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    María Santiago, José; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Solana-Gutiérrez, Joaquín; García de Jalón, Diego; Alonso, Carlos; Martínez-Capel, Francisco; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Ribalaygua, Jaime

    2017-08-01

    Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. -49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 °C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 °C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

  17. Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, P.; Uvo, C.B.; Landman, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south......A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring...

  18. Simulation-based medical teaching and learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulmohsen H Al-Elq

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important steps in curriculum development is the introduction of simulation- based medical teaching and learning. Simulation is a generic term that refers to an artificial representation of a real world process to achieve educational goals through experiential learning. Simulation based medical education is defined as any educational activity that utilizes simulation aides to replicate clinical scenarios. Although medical simulation is relatively new, simulation has been used for a long time in other high risk professions such as aviation. Medical simulation allows the acquisition of clinical skills through deliberate practice rather than an apprentice style of learning. Simulation tools serve as an alternative to real patients. A trainee can make mistakes and learn from them without the fear of harming the patient. There are different types and classification of simulators and their cost vary according to the degree of their resemblance to the reality, or ′fidelity′. Simulation- based learning is expensive. However, it is cost-effective if utilized properly. Medical simulation has been found to enhance clinical competence at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels. It has also been found to have many advantages that can improve patient safety and reduce health care costs through the improvement of the medical provider′s competencies. The objective of this narrative review article is to highlight the importance of simulation as a new teaching method in undergraduate and postgraduate education.

  19. Relative contributions of transient and steady state infiltration during ephemeral streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blasch, Kyle W.; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Hoffmann, John P.; Fleming, John B.

    2006-01-01

    Simulations of infiltration during three ephemeral streamflow events in a coarse‐grained alluvial channel overlying a less permeable basin‐fill layer were conducted to determine the relative contribution of transient infiltration at the onset of streamflow to cumulative infiltration for the event. Water content, temperature, and piezometric measurements from 2.5‐m vertical profiles within the alluvial sediments were used to constrain a variably saturated water flow and heat transport model. Simulated and measured transient infiltration rates at the onset of streamflow were about two to three orders of magnitude greater than steady state infiltration rates. The duration of simulated transient infiltration ranged from 1.8 to 20 hours, compared with steady state flow periods of 231 to 307 hours. Cumulative infiltration during the transient period represented 10 to 26% of the total cumulative infiltration, with an average contribution of approximately 18%. Cumulative infiltration error for the simulated streamflow events ranged from 9 to 25%. Cumulative infiltration error for typical streamflow events of about 8 hours in duration in is about 90%. This analysis indicates that when estimating total cumulative infiltration in coarse‐grained ephemeral stream channels, consideration of the transient infiltration at the onset of streamflow will improve predictions of the total volume of infiltration that may become groundwater recharge.

  20. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2015-12-04

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

  1. Component-based framework for subsurface simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, B J; Fang, Yilin; Hammond, Glenn; Gurumoorthi, Vidhya

    2007-01-01

    Simulations in the subsurface environment represent a broad range of phenomena covering an equally broad range of scales. Developing modelling capabilities that can integrate models representing different phenomena acting at different scales present formidable challenges both from the algorithmic and computer science perspective. This paper will describe the development of an integrated framework that will be used to combine different models into a single simulation. Initial work has focused on creating two frameworks, one for performing smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of fluid systems, the other for performing grid-based continuum simulations of reactive subsurface flow. The SPH framework is based on a parallel code developed for doing pore scale simulations, the continuum grid-based framework is based on the STOMP (Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases) code developed at PNNL Future work will focus on combining the frameworks together to perform multiscale, multiphysics simulations of reactive subsurface flow

  2. Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios foran eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of ArunachalPradesh ...

  3. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  4. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  5. Compilation of streamflow statistics calculated from daily mean streamflow data collected during water years 1901–2015 for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory E.; Ries, Kernell G.; Steeves, Peter A.

    2017-10-16

    Streamflow statistics are needed by decision makers for many planning, management, and design activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web application provides convenient access to streamflow statistics for many streamgages by accessing the underlying StreamStatsDB database. In 2016, non-interpretive streamflow statistics were compiled for streamgages located throughout the Nation and stored in StreamStatsDB for use with StreamStats and other applications. Two previously published USGS computer programs that were designed to help calculate streamflow statistics were updated to better support StreamStats as part of this effort. These programs are named “GNWISQ” (Get National Water Information System Streamflow (Q) files), updated to version 1.1.1, and “QSTATS” (Streamflow (Q) Statistics), updated to version 1.1.2.Statistics for 20,438 streamgages that had 1 or more complete years of record during water years 1901 through 2015 were calculated from daily mean streamflow data; 19,415 of these streamgages were within the conterminous United States. About 89 percent of the 20,438 streamgages had 3 or more years of record, and about 65 percent had 10 or more years of record. Drainage areas of the 20,438 streamgages ranged from 0.01 to 1,144,500 square miles. The magnitude of annual average streamflow yields (streamflow per square mile) for these streamgages varied by almost six orders of magnitude, from 0.000029 to 34 cubic feet per second per square mile. About 64 percent of these streamgages did not have any zero-flow days during their available period of record. The 18,122 streamgages with 3 or more years of record were included in the StreamStatsDB compilation so they would be available via the StreamStats interface for user-selected streamgages. All the statistics are available in a USGS ScienceBase data release.

  6. Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansoumana Bodian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This research investigated the effect of climate change on the two main river basins of Senegal in West Africa: the Senegal and Gambia River Basins. We used downscaled projected future rainfall and potential evapotranspiration based on projected temperature from six General Circulation Models (CanESM2, CNRM, CSIRO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force the GR4J model. The GR4J model was calibrated and validated using observed daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration from observed daily temperature, and streamflow data. For the cross-validation, two periods for each river basin were considered: 1961–1982 and 1983–2004 for the Senegal River Basin at Bafing Makana, and 1969–1985 and 1986–2000 for the Gambia River Basin at Mako. Model efficiency is evaluated using a multi-criteria function (Fagg which aggregates Nash and Sutcliffe criteria, cumulative volume error, and mean volume error. Alternating periods of simulation for calibration and validation were used. This process allows us to choose the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relationship. Once the model was calibrated and validated, we simulated streamflow at Bafing Makana and Mako stations in the near future at a daily scale. The characteristic flow rates were calculated to evaluate their possible evolution under the projected climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon. For the near future (2050 horizon, compared to the 1971–2000 reference period, results showed that for both river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a decrease of annual streamflow from 8% (Senegal River Basin to 22% (Gambia River Basin under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease is more pronounced: 16% (Senegal River Basin and 26% (Gambia River Basin. The Gambia River Basin will be more affected by the climate change.

  7. A heterogeneous graph-based recommendation simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeonchan, Ahn [Seoul National University; Sungchan, Park [Seoul National University; Lee, Matt Sangkeun [ORNL; Sang-goo, Lee [Seoul National University

    2013-01-01

    Heterogeneous graph-based recommendation frameworks have flexibility in that they can incorporate various recommendation algorithms and various kinds of information to produce better results. In this demonstration, we present a heterogeneous graph-based recommendation simulator which enables participants to experience the flexibility of a heterogeneous graph-based recommendation method. With our system, participants can simulate various recommendation semantics by expressing the semantics via meaningful paths like User Movie User Movie. The simulator then returns the recommendation results on the fly based on the user-customized semantics using a fast Monte Carlo algorithm.

  8. Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karishma Niloy Kibria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west, nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams. Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

  9. Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2016-12-01

    Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

  10. Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM. In addition, future leaf area index (LAI is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

  11. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  12. Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow dynamics in the headwaters of the Amazon River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Y.; Beighley, E.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazon River basin is the largest watershed in the world containing thousands of tributaries. Although the mainstream and its larger tributaries have been the focus on much research, there has been few studies focused on the hydrodynamics of smaller rivers in the foothills of the Andes Mountains. These smaller rivers are of particular importance for the fishery industry because fish migrate up these headwater rivers to spawn. During the rainy season, fish wait for storm event to increase water depths to a sufficient level for their passage. Understanding how streamflow dynamics will change in response to future conditions is vital for the sustainable management of the fishery industry. In this paper, we focus on improving the accuracy of river discharge estimates on relatively small-scale sub-catchments (100 ~ 40,000 km2) in the headwaters of the Amazon River basin. The Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model and remotely sensed datasets are used. We provide annual runoff, seasonal patterns, and daily discharge characteristics for 81 known migration reaches. The model is calibrated for the period 2000-2014 and climate forecasts for the period 2070-2100 are used to assess future changes in streamflow dynamics. The forecasts for the 2070 to 2100 period were obtained by selecting 5 climate models from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. The river network for the HRR model is developing using surface topography based on the SRTM digital elevation model. Key model forcings include precipitation (TRMM 3B42) and evapotranspiration (MODIS ET, MOD16). Model parameters for soil depth, hydraulic conductivity, runoff coefficients and lateral routing were initially approximated based on literature values and adjusted during calibration. Measurements from stream gauges located near the reaches of interest were used for

  13. Geologic and climatic controls on streamflow generation processes in a complex eogenetic karst basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vibhava, F.; Graham, W. D.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Streamflow at any given location and time is representative of surface and subsurface contributions from various sources. The ability to fully identify the factors controlling these contributions is key to successfully understanding the transport of contaminants through the system. In this study we developed a fully integrated 3D surface water-groundwater-land surface model, PARFLOW, to evaluate geologic and climatic controls on streamflow generation processes in a complex eogenetic karst basin in North Central Florida. In addition to traditional model evaluation criterion, such as comparing field observations to model simulated streamflow and groundwater elevations, we quantitatively evaluated the model's predictions of surface-groundwater interactions over space and time using a suite of binary end-member mixing models that were developed using observed specific conductivity differences among surface and groundwater sources throughout the domain. Analysis of model predictions showed that geologic heterogeneity exerts a strong control on both streamflow generation processes and land atmospheric fluxes in this watershed. In the upper basin, where the karst aquifer is overlain by a thick confining layer, approximately 92% of streamflow is "young" event flow, produced by near stream rainfall. Throughout the upper basin the confining layer produces a persistent high surficial water table which results in high evapotranspiration, low groundwater recharge and thus negligible "inter-event" streamflow. In the lower basin, where the karst aquifer is unconfined, deeper water tables result in less evapotranspiration. Thus, over 80% of the streamflow is "old" subsurface flow produced by diffuse infiltration through the epikarst throughout the lower basin, and all surface contributions to streamflow originate in the upper confined basin. Climatic variability provides a secondary control on surface-subsurface and land-atmosphere fluxes, producing significant seasonal and

  14. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  15. Simulation-based certification for cataract surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Ann Sofia Skou; Kiilgaard, Jens Folke; Kjaerbo, Hadi

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: To evaluate the EyeSi(™) simulator in regard to assessing competence in cataract surgery. The primary objective was to explore all simulator metrics to establish a proficiency-based test with solid evidence. The secondary objective was to evaluate whether the skill assessment was specific...

  16. Application of the Streamflow Prediction Tool to Estimate Sediment Dredging Volumes in Texas Coastal Waterways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeates, E.; Dreaper, G.; Afshari, S.; Tavakoly, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past six fiscal years, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has contracted an average of about a billion dollars per year for navigation channel dredging. To execute these funds effectively, USACE Districts must determine which navigation channels need to be dredged in a given year. Improving this prioritization process results in more efficient waterway maintenance. This study uses the Streamflow Prediction Tool, a runoff routing model based on global weather forecast ensembles, to estimate dredged volumes. This study establishes regional linear relationships between cumulative flow and dredged volumes over a long-term simulation covering 30 years (1985-2015), using drainage area and shoaling parameters. The study framework integrates the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Dataset) with parameters from the Corps Shoaling Analysis Tool (CSAT) and dredging record data from USACE District records. Results in the test cases of the Houston Ship Channel and the Sabine and Port Arthur Harbor waterways in Texas indicate positive correlation between the simulated streamflows and actual dredging records.

  17. Low Streamflow Forcasting using Minimum Relative Entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2013-12-01

    Minimum relative entropy spectral analysis is derived in this study, and applied to forecast streamflow time series. Proposed method extends the autocorrelation in the manner that the relative entropy of underlying process is minimized so that time series data can be forecasted. Different prior estimation, such as uniform, exponential and Gaussian assumption, is taken to estimate the spectral density depending on the autocorrelation structure. Seasonal and nonseasonal low streamflow series obtained from Colorado River (Texas) under draught condition is successfully forecasted using proposed method. Minimum relative entropy determines spectral of low streamflow series with higher resolution than conventional method. Forecasted streamflow is compared to the prediction using Burg's maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) and Configurational entropy. The advantage and disadvantage of each method in forecasting low streamflow is discussed.

  18. Water simulation for cell based sandbox games

    OpenAIRE

    Lundell, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This thesis work presents a new algorithm for simulating fluid based on the Navier-Stokes equations. The algorithm is designed for cell based sandbox games where interactivity and performance are the main priorities. The algorithm enforces mass conservation conservatively instead of enforcing a divergence free velocity field. A global scale pressure model that simulates hydrostatic pressure is used where the pressure propagates between neighboring cells. A prefix sum algorithm is used to only...

  19. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    GENERAL I ARTICLE. Computer Based ... universities, and later did system analysis, ... sonal computers (PC) and low cost software packages and tools. They can serve as useful learning experience through student projects. Models are .... Let us consider a numerical example: to calculate the velocity of a trainer aircraft ...

  20. Streamflow alteration at selected sites in Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Ken

    2017-06-26

    An understanding of streamflow alteration in response to various disturbances is necessary for the effective management of stream habitat for a variety of species in Kansas. Streamflow alteration can have negative ecological effects. Using a modeling approach, streamflow alteration was assessed for 129 selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the State for which requisite streamflow and basin-characteristic information was available. The assessment involved a comparison of the observed condition from 1980 to 2015 with the predicted expected (least-disturbed) condition for 29 streamflow metrics. The metrics represent various characteristics of streamflow including average flow (annual, monthly) and low and high flow (frequency, duration, magnitude).Streamflow alteration in Kansas was indicated locally, regionally, and statewide. Given the absence of a pronounced trend in annual precipitation in Kansas, a precipitation-related explanation for streamflow alteration was not supported. Thus, the likely explanation for streamflow alteration was human activity. Locally, a flashier flow regime (typified by shorter lag times and more frequent and higher peak discharges) was indicated for three streamgages with urbanized basins that had higher percentages of impervious surfaces than other basins in the State. The combination of localized reservoir effects and regional groundwater pumping from the High Plains aquifer likely was responsible, in part, for diminished conditions indicated for multiple streamflow metrics in western and central Kansas. Statewide, the implementation of agricultural land-management practices to reduce runoff may have been responsible, in part, for a diminished duration and magnitude of high flows. In central and eastern Kansas, implemented agricultural land-management practices may have been partly responsible for an inflated magnitude of low flows at several sites.

  1. A comparison of four streamflow record extension techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Robert M.

    1982-01-01

    One approach to developing time series of streamflow, which may be used for simulation and optimization studies of water resources development activities, is to extend an existing gage record in time by exploiting the interstation correlation between the station of interest and some nearby (long-term) base station. Four methods of extension are described, and their properties are explored. The methods are regression (REG), regression plus noise (RPN), and two new methods, maintenance of variance extension types 1 and 2 (MOVE.l, MOVE.2). MOVE.l is equivalent to a method which is widely used in psychology, biometrics, and geomorphology and which has been called by various names, e.g., ‘line of organic correlation,’ ‘reduced major axis,’ ‘unique solution,’ and ‘equivalence line.’ The methods are examined for bias and standard error of estimate of moments and order statistics, and an empirical examination is made of the preservation of historic low-flow characteristics using 50-year-long monthly records from seven streams. The REG and RPN methods are shown to have serious deficiencies as record extension techniques. MOVE.2 is shown to be marginally better than MOVE.l, according to the various comparisons of bias and accuracy.

  2. On the contribution of groundwater storage to interannual streamflow anomalies in the Colorado River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Rosenberg

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We assess the significance of groundwater storage for seasonal streamflow forecasts by evaluating its contribution to interannual streamflow anomalies in the 29 tributary sub-basins of the Colorado River. Monthly and annual changes in total basin storage are simulated by two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC macroscale hydrology model – the standard release of the model, and an alternate version that has been modified to include the SIMple Groundwater Model (SIMGM, which represents an unconfined aquifer underlying the soil column. These estimates are compared to those resulting from basin-scale water balances derived exclusively from observational data and changes in terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellites. Changes in simulated groundwater storage are then compared to those derived via baseflow recession analysis for 72 reference-quality watersheds. Finally, estimates are statistically analyzed for relationships to interannual streamflow anomalies, and predictive capacities are compared across storage terms. We find that both model simulations result in similar estimates of total basin storage change, that these estimates compare favorably with those obtained from basin-scale water balances and GRACE data, and that baseflow recession analyses are consistent with simulated changes in groundwater storage. Statistical analyses reveal essentially no relationship between groundwater storage and interannual streamflow anomalies, suggesting that operational seasonal streamflow forecasts, which do not account for groundwater conditions implicitly or explicitly, are likely not detrimentally affected by this omission in the Colorado River basin.

  3. Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, Ryan R; Tague, Christina L; Moritz, Max A

    2016-01-01

    Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada.

  4. An Hourly Streamflow Forecasting Model Coupled with an Enforced Learning Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Chang Wu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Floods, one of the most significant natural hazards, often result in loss of life and property. Accurate hourly streamflow forecasting is always a key issue in hydrology for flood hazard mitigation. To improve the performance of hourly streamflow forecasting, a methodology concerning the development of neural network (NN based models with an enforced learning strategy is proposed in this paper. Firstly, four different NNs, namely back propagation network (BPN, radial basis function network (RBFN, self-organizing map (SOM, and support vector machine (SVM, are used to construct streamflow forecasting models. Through the cross-validation test, NN-based models with superior performance in streamflow forecasting are detected. Then, an enforced learning strategy is developed to further improve the performance of the superior NN-based models, i.e., SOM and SVM in this study. Finally, the proposed flow forecasting model is obtained. Actual applications are conducted to demonstrate the potential of the proposed model. Moreover, comparison between the NN-based models with and without the enforced learning strategy is performed to evaluate the effect of the enforced learning strategy on model performance. The results indicate that the NN-based models with the enforced learning strategy indeed improve the accuracy of hourly streamflow forecasting. Hence, the presented methodology is expected to be helpful for developing improved NN-based streamflow forecasting models.

  5. Simulation-based medical education in pediatrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopreiato, Joseph O; Sawyer, Taylor

    2015-01-01

    The use of simulation-based medical education (SBME) in pediatrics has grown rapidly over the past 2 decades and is expected to continue to grow. Similar to other instructional formats used in medical education, SBME is an instructional methodology that facilitates learning. Successful use of SBME in pediatrics requires attention to basic educational principles, including the incorporation of clear learning objectives. To facilitate learning during simulation the psychological safety of the participants must be ensured, and when done correctly, SBME is a powerful tool to enhance patient safety in pediatrics. Here we provide an overview of SBME in pediatrics and review key topics in the field. We first review the tools of the trade and examine various types of simulators used in pediatric SBME, including human patient simulators, task trainers, standardized patients, and virtual reality simulation. Then we explore several uses of simulation that have been shown to lead to effective learning, including curriculum integration, feedback and debriefing, deliberate practice, mastery learning, and range of difficulty and clinical variation. Examples of how these practices have been successfully used in pediatrics are provided. Finally, we discuss the future of pediatric SBME. As a community, pediatric simulation educators and researchers have been a leading force in the advancement of simulation in medicine. As the use of SBME in pediatrics expands, we hope this perspective will serve as a guide for those interested in improving the state of pediatric SBME. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Computational steering of GEM based detector simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheharyar, Ali; Bouhali, Othmane

    2017-10-01

    Gas based detector R&D relies heavily on full simulation of detectors and their optimization before final prototypes can be built and tested. These simulations in particular those with complex scenarios such as those involving high detector voltages or gas with larger gains are computationally intensive may take several days or weeks to complete. These long-running simulations usually run on the high-performance computers in batch mode. If the results lead to unexpected behavior, then the simulation might be rerun with different parameters. However, the simulations (or jobs) may have to wait in a queue until they get a chance to run again because the supercomputer is a shared resource that maintains a queue of other user programs as well and executes them as time and priorities permit. It may result in inefficient resource utilization and increase in the turnaround time for the scientific experiment. To overcome this issue, the monitoring of the behavior of a simulation, while it is running (or live), is essential. In this work, we employ the computational steering technique by coupling the detector simulations with a visualization package named VisIt to enable the exploration of the live data as it is produced by the simulation.

  7. Predictability of soil moisture and streamflow on subseasonal timescales: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2013-10-01

    Hydrological forecasts constitute an important tool in water resource management, especially in the case of impending extreme events. This study investigates the potential predictability of soil moisture and streamflow in Switzerland using a conceptual model including a simple water balance representation and a snow module. Our results show that simulated soil moisture and streamflow are more predictable (as indicated by significantly improved performance compared to climatology) until lead times of approximately 1 week and 2-3 days, respectively, when using initial soil moisture information and climatological atmospheric forcing. Using also initial snow information and seasonal weather forecasts as forcing, the predictable lead time doubles in case of soil moisture and triples for streamflow. The skill contributions of the additional information vary with altitude; at low altitudes the precipitation forecast is most important, whereas in mountainous areas the temperature forecast and the initial snow information are the most valuable contributors. We find furthermore that the soil moisture and streamflow forecast skills increase with increasing initial soil moisture anomalies. Comparing the respective value of realistic initial conditions and state-of-the-art forcing forecasts, we show that the former are generally more important for soil moisture forecasts, whereas the latter are more valuable for streamflow forecasts. To relate the derived predictabilities to respective soil moisture and streamflow memories investigated in other publications, we additionally illustrate the similarity between the concepts of memory and predictability as measures of persistence in the last part of this study.

  8. Wavelet-linear genetic programming: A new approach for modeling monthly streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravansalar, Masoud; Rajaee, Taher; Kisi, Ozgur

    2017-06-01

    The streamflows are important and effective factors in stream ecosystems and its accurate prediction is an essential and important issue in water resources and environmental engineering systems. A hybrid wavelet-linear genetic programming (WLGP) model, which includes a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and a linear genetic programming (LGP) to predict the monthly streamflow (Q) in two gauging stations, Pataveh and Shahmokhtar, on the Beshar River at the Yasuj, Iran were used in this study. In the proposed WLGP model, the wavelet analysis was linked to the LGP model where the original time series of streamflow were decomposed into the sub-time series comprising wavelet coefficients. The results were compared with the single LGP, artificial neural network (ANN), a hybrid wavelet-ANN (WANN) and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) models. The comparisons were done by some of the commonly utilized relevant physical statistics. The Nash coefficients (E) were found as 0.877 and 0.817 for the WLGP model, for the Pataveh and Shahmokhtar stations, respectively. The comparison of the results showed that the WLGP model could significantly increase the streamflow prediction accuracy in both stations. Since, the results demonstrate a closer approximation of the peak streamflow values by the WLGP model, this model could be utilized for the simulation of cumulative streamflow data prediction in one month ahead.

  9. Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

    2018-05-01

    Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

  10. Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal adjustment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Liu, Y.; Koren, V.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

    2012-01-01

    assimilation at any adjustment scale produces streamflow predictions with a spatial correlation structure more consistent with that of streamflow observations. We also describe diagnosing the complexity of the assimilation problem using the spatial correlation information associated with the streamflow process, and discuss the effect of timing errors in a simulated hydrograph on the performance of the data assimilation procedure.

  11. Simulation-Based Training for Thoracoscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjurström, Johanna Margareta; Konge, Lars; Lehnert, Per

    2013-01-01

    An increasing proportion of thoracic procedures are performed using video-assisted thoracic surgery. This minimally invasive technique places special demands on the surgeons. Using simulation-based training on artificial models or animals has been proposed to overcome the initial part of the lear......An increasing proportion of thoracic procedures are performed using video-assisted thoracic surgery. This minimally invasive technique places special demands on the surgeons. Using simulation-based training on artificial models or animals has been proposed to overcome the initial part...... of the learning curve. This study aimed to investigate the effect of simulation-based training and to compare self-guided and educator-guided training....

  12. Hockey lines for simulation-based learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topps, David; Ellaway, Rachel; Kupsh, Christine

    2015-06-01

    Simulation-based health professional education is often limited in accommodating large numbers of students. Most organisations do not have enough simulation suites or staff to support growing demands. We needed to find ways to make simulation sessions more accommodating for larger groups of learners, so that more than a few individuals could be active in a simulation scenario at any one time. Moreover, we needed to make the experience meaningful for all participating learners. We used the metaphor of (ice) hockey lines and substitution 'on the fly' to effectively double the numbers of learners that can be actively engaged at once. Team players must communicate clearly, and observe keenly, so that currently playing members understand what is happening from moment to moment and incoming substitutes can take over their roles seamlessly. Most organisations do not have enough simulation suites or staff to support growing demands We found that this hockey lines approach to simulation-based team scenarios will raise learners' levels of engagement, reinforce good crew resource management (CRM) practices, enhance closed-loop communication, and help learners to understand their cognitive biases and limitations when working in high-pressure situations. During our continuing refinement of the hockey-lines approach, we developed a number of variations on the basic activity model, with various benefits and applications. Both students and teachers have been enthusiastically positive about this approach when it was introduced at our various courses and participating institutions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Image based SAR product simulation for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domik, G.; Leberl, F.

    1987-01-01

    SAR product simulation serves to predict SAR image gray values for various flight paths. Input typically consists of a digital elevation model and backscatter curves. A new method is described of product simulation that employs also a real SAR input image for image simulation. This can be denoted as 'image-based simulation'. Different methods to perform this SAR prediction are presented and advantages and disadvantages discussed. Ascending and descending orbit images from NASA's SIR-B experiment were used for verification of the concept: input images from ascending orbits were converted into images from a descending orbit; the results are compared to the available real imagery to verify that the prediction technique produces meaningful image data.

  14. Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.

    2016-10-06

    State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The

  15. Simulation-based Testing of Control Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ozmen, Ozgur [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Nutaro, James J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sanyal, Jibonananda [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Olama, Mohammed M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-02-10

    It is impossible to adequately test complex software by examining its operation in a physical prototype of the system monitored. Adequate test coverage can require millions of test cases, and the cost of equipment prototypes combined with the real-time constraints of testing with them makes it infeasible to sample more than a small number of these tests. Model based testing seeks to avoid this problem by allowing for large numbers of relatively inexpensive virtual prototypes that operate in simulation time at a speed limited only by the available computing resources. In this report, we describe how a computer system emulator can be used as part of a model based testing environment; specifically, we show that a complete software stack including operating system and application software - can be deployed within a simulated environment, and that these simulations can proceed as fast as possible. To illustrate this approach to model based testing, we describe how it is being used to test several building control systems that act to coordinate air conditioning loads for the purpose of reducing peak demand. These tests involve the use of ADEVS (A Discrete Event System Simulator) and QEMU (Quick Emulator) to host the operational software within the simulation, and a building model developed with the MODELICA programming language using Buildings Library and packaged as an FMU (Functional Mock-up Unit) that serves as the virtual test environment.

  16. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    OpenAIRE

    F. F. van Ogtrop; R. W. Vervoort; G. Z. Heller; D. M. Stasinopoulos; R. A. Rigby

    2011-01-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine th...

  17. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    OpenAIRE

    F. F. van Ogtrop; R. W. Vervoort; G. Z. Heller; D. M. Stasinopoulos; R. A. Rigby

    2011-01-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a probabilistic statistical model to forecast streamflow 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probabil...

  18. Bridging the gap: simulations meet knowledge bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Gary W.; Morrison, Clayton T.; Westbrook, David L.; Cohen, Paul R.

    2003-09-01

    Tapir and Krill are declarative languages for specifying actions and agents, respectively, that can be executed in simulation. As such, they bridge the gap between strictly declarative knowledge bases and strictly executable code. Tapir and Krill components can be combined to produce models of activity which can answer questions about mechanisms and processes using conventional inference methods and simulation. Tapir was used in DARPA's Rapid Knowledge Formation (RKF) project to construct models of military tactics from the Army Field Manual FM3-90. These were then used to build Courses of Actions (COAs) which could be critiqued by declarative reasoning or via Monte Carlo simulation. Tapir and Krill can be read and written by non-knowledge engineers making it an excellent vehicle for Subject Matter Experts to build and critique knowledge bases.

  19. Streamflow disaggregation: a nonlinear deterministic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Sivakumar

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces a nonlinear deterministic approach for streamflow disaggregation. According to this approach, the streamflow transformation process from one scale to another is treated as a nonlinear deterministic process, rather than a stochastic process as generally assumed. The approach follows two important steps: (1 reconstruction of the scalar (streamflow series in a multi-dimensional phase-space for representing the transformation dynamics; and (2 use of a local approximation (nearest neighbor method for disaggregation. The approach is employed for streamflow disaggregation in the Mississippi River basin, USA. Data of successively doubled resolutions between daily and 16 days (i.e. daily, 2-day, 4-day, 8-day, and 16-day are studied, and disaggregations are attempted only between successive resolutions (i.e. 2-day to daily, 4-day to 2-day, 8-day to 4-day, and 16-day to 8-day. Comparisons between the disaggregated values and the actual values reveal excellent agreements for all the cases studied, indicating the suitability of the approach for streamflow disaggregation. A further insight into the results reveals that the best results are, in general, achieved for low embedding dimensions (2 or 3 and small number of neighbors (less than 50, suggesting possible presence of nonlinear determinism in the underlying transformation process. A decrease in accuracy with increasing disaggregation scale is also observed, a possible implication of the existence of a scaling regime in streamflow.

  20. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. Jonker (Catholijn); J. Treur

    1998-01-01

    textabstract In this paper it is shown how animal behaviour can be simulated in an agent-based manner. Different models are shown for different types of behaviour, varying from purely reactive behaviour to pro-active, social and adaptive behaviour. The compositional development method for

  1. Simulation-based summative assessments in surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, Peter; Grantcharov, Teodor P; Sweet, Robert M; Korndorffer, James R; Pedowitz, Robert A; Roberts, Patricia L; Sachdeva, Ajit K

    2016-09-01

    The American College of Surgeons-Accredited Education Institutes (ACS-AEI) Consortium aims to enhance patient safety and advance surgical education through the use of cutting-edge simulation-based training and assessment methods. The annual ACS-AEI Consortium meeting provides a forum to discuss the latest simulation-based training and assessment methods and includes special panel presentations on key topics. During the 8th annual Consortium, there was a panel presentation on simulation-based summative assessments, during which experiences from across surgical disciplines were presented. The formal presentations were followed by a robust discussion between the conference attendees and the panelists. This report summarizes the panelists' presentations and their ensuing discussion with attendees. The focus of this report is on the basis for and advances in simulation-based summative assessments, the current practices employed across various surgical disciplines, and future directions that may be pursued by the ACS-AEI Consortium. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course

  3. 2D PIM Simulation Based on COMSOL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Xinbo; Cui, Wanzhao; Wang, Jingyu

    2011-01-01

    Passive intermodulation (PIM) is a problematic type of nonlinear distortion en- countered in many communication systems. To analyze the PIM distortion resulting from ma- terial nonlinearity, a 2D PIM simulation method based on COMSOL is proposed in this paper. As an example, a rectangular wavegui...

  4. Effects of water use and land use on streamflow and aquatic habitat in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarriello, Phillip J.; Parker, Gene W.; Armstrong, David S.; Carlson, Carl S.

    2010-01-01

    associated with the loss of deep-rooted vegetation. Simulations of reactivating production wells near the north end of Lake Cochituate indicate pumping could substantially affect lake levels and flows at the lake outlet or in nearby reaches in the Sudbury River during periods of low flow, but the effects vary depending on the source of the water to the wells, which is largely unknown. Chapter 2 of the report covers the fish-community assessment and comparison of streamflow-setting standards for protecting aquatic habitat. The fish-community assessment indicates the main stems of the Sudbury and Assabet Rivers are dominated by macrohabitat generalists. Water temperatures recorded in seven free-flowing reaches in the upper Sudbury River Basin at three sites unaffected by withdrawals or impoundments are generally suitable for cold-water fish; however, summer temperatures often rose to a level considered critical to long-term survival of brook trout. At four sites downstream from withdrawals or reservoirs, or both, summer water temperatures were often in the upper critical range for brook trout survival. Physically and statistically based methods for determining streamflows for protecting aquatic habitat were applied at 10 selected riffle sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins. Physically based methods, R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter, use site-specific physical and hydraulic information and a one-dimensional hydraulics model, HEC-RAS, to determine flows that meet the criteria set forth by the method. The median flow that meets 2-of-3 of the R2Cross hydraulic criteria (percentage of bankfull wetted perimeter, average velocity, and mean depth) ranged from about 0.07 to 0.72 cubic feet per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) with an overall median of about 0.24 ft3/s/mi2; the median Wetted-Perimeter target flow ranged from about 0.10 to 0.51 ft3/s/mi2 with an overall median of about 0.25 ft3/s/mi2. Statistically based methods?Tennant, New England Aquatic Base Flow (ABF)

  5. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  6. Data Pre-Analysis and Ensemble of Various Artificial Neural Networks for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhong Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces three artificial neural network (ANN architectures for monthly streamflow forecasting: a radial basis function network, an extreme learning machine, and the Elman network. Three ensemble techniques, a simple average ensemble, a weighted average ensemble, and an ANN-based ensemble, were used to combine the outputs of the individual ANN models. The objective was to highlight the performance of the general regression neural network-based ensemble technique (GNE through an improvement of monthly streamflow forecasting accuracy. Before the construction of an ANN model, data preanalysis techniques, such as empirical wavelet transform (EWT, were exploited to eliminate the oscillations of the streamflow series. Additionally, a theory of chaos phase space reconstruction was used to select the most relevant and important input variables for forecasting. The proposed GNE ensemble model has been applied for the mean monthly streamflow observation data from the Wudongde hydrological station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Comparisons and analysis of this study have demonstrated that the denoised streamflow time series was less disordered and unsystematic than was suggested by the original time series according to chaos theory. Thus, EWT can be adopted as an effective data preanalysis technique for the prediction of monthly streamflow. Concurrently, the GNE performed better when compared with other ensemble techniques.

  7. Improving Simulations of Extreme Flows by Coupling a Physically-based Hydrologic Model with a Machine Learning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, K.; Islam, A. S.; Khan, M. J. U.; Das, M. K.

    2017-12-01

    With the large number of hydrologic models presently available along with the global weather and geographic datasets, streamflows of almost any river in the world can be easily modeled. And if a reasonable amount of observed data from that river is available, then simulations of high accuracy can sometimes be performed after calibrating the model parameters against those observed data through inverse modeling. Although such calibrated models can succeed in simulating the general trend or mean of the observed flows very well, more often than not they fail to adequately simulate the extreme flows. This causes difficulty in tasks such as generating reliable projections of future changes in extreme flows due to climate change, which is obviously an important task due to floods and droughts being closely connected to people's lives and livelihoods. We propose an approach where the outputs of a physically-based hydrologic model are used as an input to a machine learning model to try and better simulate the extreme flows. To demonstrate this offline-coupling approach, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the physically-based hydrologic model, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the machine learning model and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system as the study area. The GBM river system, located in South Asia, is the third largest in the world in terms of freshwater generated and forms the largest delta in the world. The flows of the GBM rivers were simulated separately in order to test the performance of this proposed approach in accurately simulating the extreme flows generated by different basins that vary in size, climate, hydrology and anthropogenic intervention on stream networks. Results show that by post-processing the simulated flows of the SWAT models with ANN models, simulations of extreme flows can be significantly improved. The mean absolute errors in simulating annual maximum/minimum daily flows were minimized from 4967

  8. What Do They Have in Common? Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes in Ungauged Locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betterle, A.; Radny, D.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

    2017-12-01

    The spatial correlation of daily streamflows represents a statistical index encapsulating the similarity between hydrographs at two arbitrary catchment outlets. In this work, a process-based analytical framework is utilized to investigate the hydrological drivers of streamflow spatial correlation through an extensive application to 78 pairs of stream gauges belonging to 13 unregulated catchments in the eastern United States. The analysis provides insight on how the observed heterogeneity of the physical processes that control flow dynamics ultimately affect streamflow correlation and spatial patterns of flow regimes. Despite the variability of recession properties across the study catchments, the impact of heterogeneous drainage rates on the streamflow spatial correlation is overwhelmed by the spatial variability of frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events. Overall, model performances are satisfactory, with root mean square errors between modeled and observed streamflow spatial correlation below 10% in most cases. We also propose a method for estimating streamflow correlation in the absence of discharge data, which proves useful to predict streamflow regimes in ungauged areas. The method consists in setting a minimum threshold on the modeled flow correlation to individuate hydrologically similar sites. Catchment outlets that are most correlated (ρ>0.9) are found to be characterized by analogous streamflow distributions across a broad range of flow regimes.

  9. Evaluation of streamflow forecast for the National Water Model of U.S. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Dugger, A. L.; Gochis, D.; Karsten, L. R.; Zhang, Y.; Cosgrove, B.; Liu, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The National Water Model (NWM), an implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system, is an operational hydrologic forecasting model for the contiguous United States. The model forecasts distributed hydrologic states and fluxes, including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water. In particular, the NWM provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches for three forecast ranges: short (15 hr), medium (10 days), and long (30 days). In this study, we verify short and medium range streamflow forecasts in the context of the verification of their respective quantitative precipitation forecasts/forcing (QPF), the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and the Global Forecast System (GFS). The streamflow evaluation is performed for summer of 2016 at more than 6,000 USGS gauges. Both individual forecasts and forecast lead times are examined. Selected case studies of extreme events aim to provide insight into the quality of the NWM streamflow forecasts. A goal of this comparison is to address how much streamflow bias originates from precipitation forcing bias. To this end, precipitation verification is performed over the contributing areas above (and between assimilated) USGS gauge locations. Precipitation verification is based on the aggregated, blended StageIV/StageII data as the "reference truth". We summarize the skill of the streamflow forecasts, their skill relative to the QPF, and make recommendations for improving NWM forecast skill.

  10. Methods to estimate historical daily streamflow for ungaged stream locations in Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, David L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2016-03-14

    Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water; however, streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. Therefore, methods for estimating streamflow at ungaged stream locations need to be developed. This report presents a statewide study to develop methods to estimate the structure of historical daily streamflow at ungaged stream locations in Minnesota. Historical daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Minnesota can be estimated by transferring streamflow data at streamgages to the ungaged location using the QPPQ method. The QPPQ method uses flow-duration curves at an index streamgage, relying on the assumption that exceedance probabilities are equivalent between the index streamgage and the ungaged location, and estimates the flow at the ungaged location using the estimated flow-duration curve. Flow-duration curves at ungaged locations can be estimated using recently developed regression equations that have been incorporated into StreamStats (http://streamstats.usgs.gov/), which is a U.S. Geological Survey Web-based interactive mapping tool that can be used to obtain streamflow statistics, drainage-basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams.

  11. Design of simulation-based medical education and advantages and disadvantages of in situ simulation versus off-site simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jette Led; Østergaard, Doris; LeBlanc, Vicki

    2017-01-01

    that choice of setting for simulations does not seem to influence individual and team learning. Department-based local simulation, such as simulation in-house and especially in situ simulation, leads to gains in organisational learning. The overall objectives of simulation-based education and factors......BACKGROUND: Simulation-based medical education (SBME) has traditionally been conducted as off-site simulation in simulation centres. Some hospital departments also provide off-site simulation using in-house training room(s) set up for simulation away from the clinical setting, and these activities...... simulations. DISCUSSION: Non-randomised studies argue that in situ simulation is more effective for educational purposes than other types of simulation settings. Conversely, the few comparison studies that exist, either randomised or retrospective, show that choice of setting does not seem to influence...

  12. Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hisdal, Hege; Holmqvist, Erik; Jonsdottir, Jona Finndis; Jonsson, Pall; Kuusisto, Esko; Lindstroem, Goeran; Roald, Lars A.

    2010-01-15

    Climate change studies traditionally include elaboration of possible scenarios for the future and attempts to detect a climate change signal in historical data. This study focuses on the latter. A pan-Nordic dataset of more than 160 streamflow records was analysed to detect spatial and temporal changes in streamflow. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to study changes in annual and seasonal streamflow as well as floods and droughts for three periods: 1961-2000, 1941-2002 and 1920-2002. The period analysed and the selection of stations influenced the regional patterns found, but the overall picture was that trends towards increased streamflow were dominating for annual values and the winter and spring seasons. Trends in summer flow highly depended on the period analysed whereas no trend was found for the autumn season. A signal towards earlier snowmelt floods was clear and a tendency towards more severe summer droughts was found in southern Norway. A qualitative comparison of the findings to available streamflow scenarios for the region showed that the strongest trends found are coherent with changes expected in the scenario period, for example increased winter discharge and earlier snowmelt floods. However, there are also expected changes that are not reflected in the trends, such as the expected increase in autumn discharge in Norway. It can be concluded that the observed temperature increase has clearly affected the streamflow in the Nordic countries. These changes correspond well with the estimated consequences of a projected temperature increase. The effect of the observed and projected precipitation increase on streamflow is less clear.(Author)

  13. A web-based virtual lighting simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papamichael, Konstantinos; Lai, Judy; Fuller, Daniel; Tariq, Tara

    2002-05-06

    This paper is about a web-based ''virtual lighting simulator,'' which is intended to allow architects and lighting designers to quickly assess the effect of key parameters on the daylighting and lighting performance in various space types. The virtual lighting simulator consists of a web-based interface that allows navigation through a large database of images and data, which were generated through parametric lighting simulations. At its current form, the virtual lighting simulator has two main modules, one for daylighting and one for electric lighting. The daylighting module includes images and data for a small office space, varying most key daylighting parameters, such as window size and orientation, glazing type, surface reflectance, sky conditions, time of the year, etc. The electric lighting module includes images and data for five space types (classroom, small office, large open office, warehouse and small retail), varying key lighting parameters, such as the electric lighting system, surface reflectance, dimming/switching, etc. The computed images include perspectives and plans and are displayed in various formats to support qualitative as well as quantitative assessment. The quantitative information is in the form of iso-contour lines superimposed on the images, as well as false color images and statistical information on work plane illuminance. The qualitative information includes images that are adjusted to account for the sensitivity and adaptation of the human eye. The paper also includes a section on the major technical issues and their resolution.

  14. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  15. On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.

    2018-01-01

    Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.

  16. Analytical flow duration curves for summer streamflow in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Ana Clara; Portela, Maria Manuela; Rinaldo, Andrea; Schaefli, Bettina

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a systematic assessment of the performance of an analytical modeling framework for streamflow probability distributions for a set of 25 Swiss catchments. These catchments show a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including namely snow-influenced streamflows. The model parameters are calculated from a spatially averaged gridded daily precipitation data set and from observed daily discharge time series, both in a forward estimation mode (direct parameter calculation from observed data) and in an inverse estimation mode (maximum likelihood estimation). The performance of the linear and the nonlinear model versions is assessed in terms of reproducing observed flow duration curves and their natural variability. Overall, the nonlinear model version outperforms the linear model for all regimes, but the linear model shows a notable performance increase with catchment elevation. More importantly, the obtained results demonstrate that the analytical model performs well for summer discharge for all analyzed streamflow regimes, ranging from rainfall-driven regimes with summer low flow to snow and glacier regimes with summer high flow. These results suggest that the model's encoding of discharge-generating events based on stochastic soil moisture dynamics is more flexible than previously thought. As shown in this paper, the presence of snowmelt or ice melt is accommodated by a relative increase in the discharge-generating frequency, a key parameter of the model. Explicit quantification of this frequency increase as a function of mean catchment meteorological conditions is left for future research.

  17. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  18. Physics-Based Simulations of Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Kasey William

    Earthquakes and tsunamis are some of the most damaging natural disasters that we face. Just two recent events, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and the 2011 Haiti earthquake, claimed more than 400,000 lives. Despite their catastrophic impacts on society, our ability to predict these natural disasters is still very limited. The main challenge in studying the earthquake cycle is the non-linear and multi-scale properties of fault networks. Earthquakes are governed by physics across many orders of magnitude of spatial and temporal scales; from the scale of tectonic plates and their evolution over millions of years, down to the scale of rock fracturing over milliseconds to minutes at the sub-centimeter scale during an earthquake. Despite these challenges, there are useful patterns in earthquake occurrence. One such pattern, the frequency-magnitude relation, relates the number of large earthquakes to small earthquakes and forms the basis for assessing earthquake hazard. However the utility of these relations is proportional to the length of our earthquake records, and typical records span at most a few hundred years. Utilizing physics based interactions and techniques from statistical physics, earthquake simulations provide rich earthquake catalogs allowing us to measure otherwise unobservable statistics. In this dissertation I will discuss five applications of physics-based simulations of natural hazards, utilizing an earthquake simulator called Virtual Quake. The first is an overview of computing earthquake probabilities from simulations, focusing on the California fault system. The second uses simulations to help guide satellite-based earthquake monitoring methods. The third presents a new friction model for Virtual Quake and describes how we tune simulations to match reality. The fourth describes the process of turning Virtual Quake into an open source research tool. This section then focuses on a resulting collaboration using Virtual Quake for a detailed

  19. Simulation and case-based learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørngreen, Rikke; Guralnick, David

    2008-01-01

    Abstract- This paper has its origin in the authors' reflection on years of practical experiences combined with literature readings in our preparation for a workshop on learn-by-doing simulation and case-based learning to be held at the ICELW 2008 conference (the International Conference on E-Learning...... in the Workplace). The purpose of this paper is to describe the two online learning methodologies and to raise questions for future discussion. In the workshop, the organizers and participants work with and discuss differences and similarities within the two pedagogical methodologies, focusing on how...... they are applied in workplace related and e-learning contexts. In addition to the organizers, a small number of invited presenters will attend, giving demonstrations of their work within learn-by-doing simulation and cases-based learning, but still leaving ample of time for discussion among all participants....

  20. Design of simulation-based medical education and advantages and disadvantages of in situ simulation versus off-site simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sorensen, J.L.; Ostergaard, D.; Leblanc, V.; Ottesen, B.; Konge, L.; Dieckmann, P.; Vleuten, C. van der

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Simulation-based medical education (SBME) has traditionally been conducted as off-site simulation in simulation centres. Some hospital departments also provide off-site simulation using in-house training room(s) set up for simulation away from the clinical setting, and these activities

  1. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course of this project two workshops were organized. At these workshops, a wide range of experts, both ABM experts and domain experts, worked on several potential applications of ABM. The results and ins...

  2. Interactive physically-based sound simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghuvanshi, Nikunj

    The realization of interactive, immersive virtual worlds requires the ability to present a realistic audio experience that convincingly compliments their visual rendering. Physical simulation is a natural way to achieve such realism, enabling deeply immersive virtual worlds. However, physically-based sound simulation is very computationally expensive owing to the high-frequency, transient oscillations underlying audible sounds. The increasing computational power of desktop computers has served to reduce the gap between required and available computation, and it has become possible to bridge this gap further by using a combination of algorithmic improvements that exploit the physical, as well as perceptual properties of audible sounds. My thesis is a step in this direction. My dissertation concentrates on developing real-time techniques for both sub-problems of sound simulation: synthesis and propagation. Sound synthesis is concerned with generating the sounds produced by objects due to elastic surface vibrations upon interaction with the environment, such as collisions. I present novel techniques that exploit human auditory perception to simulate scenes with hundreds of sounding objects undergoing impact and rolling in real time. Sound propagation is the complementary problem of modeling the high-order scattering and diffraction of sound in an environment as it travels from source to listener. I discuss my work on a novel numerical acoustic simulator (ARD) that is hundred times faster and consumes ten times less memory than a high-accuracy finite-difference technique, allowing acoustic simulations on previously-intractable spaces, such as a cathedral, on a desktop computer. Lastly, I present my work on interactive sound propagation that leverages my ARD simulator to render the acoustics of arbitrary static scenes for multiple moving sources and listener in real time, while accounting for scene-dependent effects such as low-pass filtering and smooth attenuation

  3. Streamflow response to climate and landuse changes in a coastal watershed in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Qi; G. Sun; Y. Wang; S.G. McNulty; J.A. Moore Myers

    2009-01-01

    It is essential to examine the sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate and landuse change across different physiographic regions in order to formulate sound water management policies for local response to projected global change. This study used the a simulation model to examine the potential impacts of climate and landuse changes on streamflow of the...

  4. Streamflow characteristics of a naturally drained forested watershed in southeast Atlantic coastal plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Carl C. Trettin

    2010-01-01

    Information about streamflow characteristics e.g. runoff-rainfall (R/O) ratio, rate and timing of flow, surface and subsurface drainage (SSD), and response time to rainfall events is necessary to accurately simulate fluxes and for designing best management practices (BMPs). Unfortunately, those data are scarce in the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain, a highly...

  5. Streamflow effects on spawning, rearing, and outmigration of fall-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) predicted by a spatial and individual-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jager, H.I.; Sale, M.J.; Cardwell, H.E.; Deangelis, D.L.; Bevelhimer, M.J.; Coutant, C.C.

    1994-01-01

    The thread posed to Pacific salmon by competing water demands is a great concern to regulators of the hydropower industry. Finding the balance between fish resource and economic objectives depends on our ability to quantify flow effects on salmon production. Because field experiments are impractical, simulation models are needed to predict the effects of minimum flows on chinook salmon during their freshwater residence. We have developed a model to simulate the survival and development of eggs and alevins in redds and the growth, survival, and movement of juvenile chinook in response to local stream conditions (flow, temperature, chinook and predator density). Model results suggest that smolt production during dry years can be increased by raising spring minimum flows

  6. Physiological Based Simulator Fidelity Design Guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnell, Thomas; Hamel, Nancy; Postnikov, Alex; Hoke, Jaclyn; McLean, Angus L. M. Thom, III

    2012-01-01

    The evolution of the role of flight simulation has reinforced assumptions in aviation that the degree of realism in a simulation system directly correlates to the training benefit, i.e., more fidelity is always better. The construct of fidelity has several dimensions, including physical fidelity, functional fidelity, and cognitive fidelity. Interaction of different fidelity dimensions has an impact on trainee immersion, presence, and transfer of training. This paper discusses research results of a recent study that investigated if physiological-based methods could be used to determine the required level of simulator fidelity. Pilots performed a relatively complex flight task consisting of mission task elements of various levels of difficulty in a fixed base flight simulator and a real fighter jet trainer aircraft. Flight runs were performed using one forward visual channel of 40 deg. field of view for the lowest level of fidelity, 120 deg. field of view for the middle level of fidelity, and unrestricted field of view and full dynamic acceleration in the real airplane. Neuro-cognitive and physiological measures were collected under these conditions using the Cognitive Avionics Tool Set (CATS) and nonlinear closed form models for workload prediction were generated based on these data for the various mission task elements. One finding of the work described herein is that simple heart rate is a relatively good predictor of cognitive workload, even for short tasks with dynamic changes in cognitive loading. Additionally, we found that models that used a wide range of physiological and neuro-cognitive measures can further boost the accuracy of the workload prediction.

  7. Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA on Streamflow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan R Bart

    Full Text Available Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm, with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada.

  8. Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tague, Christina L.; Moritz, Max A.

    2016-01-01

    Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada. PMID:27575592

  9. Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Curry

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Fraser River Basin (FRB of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May–July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE, there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax, soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ ^   =  0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation, the snowmelt rate (ρ ^   =  0.43 in VIC, the

  10. Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, Charles L.; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May-July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ ^ = -0.40; -0.41) and (

  11. Simulation-based instruction of technical skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towne, Douglas M.; Munro, Allen

    1991-01-01

    A rapid intelligent tutoring development system (RAPIDS) was developed to facilitate the production of interactive, real-time graphical device models for use in instructing the operation and maintenance of complex systems. The tools allowed subject matter experts to produce device models by creating instances of previously defined objects and positioning them in the emerging device model. These simulation authoring functions, as well as those associated with demonstrating procedures and functional effects on the completed model, required no previous programming experience or use of frame-based instructional languages. Three large simulations were developed in RAPIDS, each involving more than a dozen screen-sized sections. Seven small, single-view applications were developed to explore the range of applicability. Three workshops were conducted to train others in the use of the authoring tools. Participants learned to employ the authoring tools in three to four days and were able to produce small working device models on the fifth day.

  12. Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guay, Joel R.

    2002-01-01

    To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated

  13. Groundwater recharge in Wisconsin--Annual estimates for 1970-99 using streamflow data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2011-01-01

    The groundwater component of streamflow is important because it is indicative of the sustained flow of a stream during dry periods, is often of better quality, and has a smaller range of temperatures, than surface contributions to streamflow. All three of these characteristics are important to the health of aquatic life in a stream. If recharge to the aquifers is to be preserved or enhanced, it is important to understand the present partitioning of total streamflow into base flow and stormflow. Additionally, an estimate of groundwater recharge is important for understanding the flows within a groundwater system-information important for water availability/sustainability or other assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey operates numerous continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (Hirsch and Norris, 2001), which can be used to provide estimates of average annual base flow. In addition to these continuous record sites, Gebert and others (2007) showed that having a few streamflow measurements in a basin can appreciably reduce the error in a base-flow estimate for that basin. Therefore, in addition to the continuous-record gaging stations, a substantial number of low-flow partial-record sites (6 to 15 discharge measurements) and miscellaneous-measurement sites (1 to 3 discharge measurements) that were operated during 1964-90 throughout the State were included in this work to provide additional insight into spatial distribution of annual base flow and, in turn, groundwater recharge.

  14. Optimizing a Water Simulation based on Wavefront Parameter Optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgren, Martin

    2017-01-01

    DICE, a Swedish game company, wanted a more realistic water simulation. Currently, most large scale water simulations used in games are based upon ocean simulation technology. These techniques falter when used in other scenarios, such as coastlines. In order to produce a more realistic simulation, a new one was created based upon the water simulation technique "Wavefront Parameter Interpolation". This technique involves a rather extensive preprocess that enables ocean simulations to have inte...

  15. One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois

    2015-04-01

    Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN

  16. Reconstruction and analysis of the past five centuries of streamflow on northern slopes on Tianshan Mountains in Northern Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuhui; Chen, Yaning; Wang, Minzhong; Sun, Huilan

    2017-07-01

    We examined the changes in streamflow on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China, over two time scales: the past 500 years, based on dendrochronology data; and the past 50 years, based on streamflow data from hydrological stations. The method of artificial neural networks built from the data of the 50-year period was used to reconstruct the streamflow of the 500-year period. The results indicate that streamflow has undergone seven high-flow periods and four low-flow periods during the past 500 years. To identify possible transition points in the streamflow, we applied the Mann-Kendall and running T tests to the 50- and 500-year periods, respectively. During the past 500 years, streamflow has changed significantly from low to high flow about three to four times, and from high to low flow about three to five times. Over the recent 50 years, there have been three phases of variation in river runoff, and the most distinct transition of streamflow occurred in 1996.

  17. Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantz, James E.

    1998-01-01

    Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following

  18. Nuclear Power Reactor simulator - based training program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelwahab, S.A.S.

    2009-01-01

    nuclear power stations will continue playing a major role as an energy source for electric generation and heat production in the world. in this paper, a nuclear power reactor simulator- based training program will be presented . this program is designed to aid in training of the reactor operators about the principles of operation of the plant. also it could help the researchers and the designers to analyze and to estimate the performance of the nuclear reactors and facilitate further studies for selection of the proper controller and its optimization process as it is difficult and time consuming to do all experiments in the real nuclear environment.this program is written in MATLAB code as MATLAB software provides sophisticated tools comparable to those in other software such as visual basic for the creation of graphical user interface (GUI). moreover MATLAB is available for all major operating systems. the used SIMULINK reactor model for the nuclear reactor can be used to model different types by adopting appropriate parameters. the model of each component of the reactor is based on physical laws rather than the use of look up tables or curve fitting.this simulation based training program will improve acquisition and retention knowledge also trainee will learn faster and will have better attitude

  19. Simulations of future runoff conditions for glacierized catchments in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) using the physically based hydroclimatological model AMUNDSEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanzer, Florian; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Strasser, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the amount of water resources stored in mountain catchments as snow and ice as well as the timing of meltwater production and the resulting streamflow runoff is of high interest for glaciohydrological investigations and hydropower production. Climate change induced seasonal shifts in snow and ice melt will alter the hydrological regimes in glacierized catchments in terms of both timing and magnitude of discharge. We present the setup of the hydroclimatological model AMUNDSEN for a highly glacierized (24 %) 558 km2 large study area (1760-3768 m a.s.l.) in the Ötztal Alps (Austria), and first results of simulated future runoff conditions. The study region comprises the headwater catchments of the valleys Ötztal, Pitztal, and Kaunertal, which contribute to the streamflow of the river Inn. AMUNDSEN is a fully distributed physically based model designed to quantify the energy and mass balance of snow and ice surfaces in complex topography as well as streamflow generation for a given catchment. The model has been extensively validated for past conditions and has been extended by an empirical glacier evolution model (Δh approach) for the present study. Statistically downscaled EURO-CORDEX climate simulations covering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used as the meteorological forcing for the period 2006-2050. Model results are evaluated in terms of magnitude and change of the contributions of the individual runoff components (snowmelt, ice melt, rain) in the subcatchments as well as the change in glacier volume and area.

  20. Simulation-based disassembly systems design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlendorf, Martin; Herrmann, Christoph; Hesselbach, Juergen

    2004-02-01

    Recycling of Waste of Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) is a matter of actual concern, driven by economic, ecological and legislative reasons. Here, disassembly as the first step of the treatment process plays a key role. To achieve sustainable progress in WEEE disassembly, the key is not to limit analysis and planning to merely disassembly processes in a narrow sense, but to consider entire disassembly plants including additional aspects such as internal logistics, storage, sorting etc. as well. In this regard, the paper presents ways of designing, dimensioning, structuring and modeling different disassembly systems. Goal is to achieve efficient and economic disassembly systems that allow recycling processes complying with legal requirements. Moreover, advantages of applying simulation software tools that are widespread and successfully utilized in conventional industry sectors are addressed. They support systematic disassembly planning by means of simulation experiments including consecutive efficiency evaluation. Consequently, anticipatory recycling planning considering various scenarios is enabled and decisions about which types of disassembly systems evidence appropriateness for specific circumstances such as product spectrum, throughput, disassembly depth etc. is supported. Furthermore, integration of simulation based disassembly planning in a holistic concept with configuration of interfaces and data utilization including cost aspects is described.

  1. Simulation-based optimization of thermal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaluria, Yogesh

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the design and optimization of thermal systems on the basis of the mathematical and numerical modeling of the system. Many complexities are often encountered in practical thermal processes and systems, making the modeling challenging and involved. These include property variations, complicated regions, combined transport mechanisms, chemical reactions, and intricate boundary conditions. The paper briefly presents approaches that may be used to accurately simulate these systems. Validation of the numerical model is a particularly critical aspect and is discussed. It is important to couple the modeling with the system performance, design, control and optimization. This aspect, which has often been ignored in the literature, is considered in this paper. Design of thermal systems based on concurrent simulation and experimentation is also discussed in terms of dynamic data-driven optimization methods. Optimization of the system and of the operating conditions is needed to minimize costs and improve product quality and system performance. Different optimization strategies that are currently used for thermal systems are outlined, focusing on new and emerging strategies. Of particular interest is multi-objective optimization, since most thermal systems involve several important objective functions, such as heat transfer rate and pressure in electronic cooling systems. A few practical thermal systems are considered in greater detail to illustrate these approaches and to present typical simulation, design and optimization results

  2. SIMULATION OF SUBGRADE EMBANKMENT ON WEAK BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. D. Petrenko

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. This article provides: the question of the sustainability of the subgrade on a weak base is considered in the paper. It is proposed to use the method of jet grouting. Investigation of the possibility of a weak base has an effect on the overall deformation of the subgrade; the identification and optimization of the parameters of subgrade based on studies using numerical simulation. Methodology. The theoretical studies of the stress-strain state of the base and subgrade embankment by modeling in the software package LIRA have been conducted to achieve this goal. Findings. After making the necessary calculations perform building fields of a subsidence, borders cramped thickness, bed’s coefficients of Pasternak and Winkler. The diagrams construction of vertical stress performs at any point of load application. Also, using the software system may perform peer review subsidence, rolls railroad tracks in natural and consolidated basis. Originality. For weak soils is the most appropriate nonlinear model of the base with the existing areas of both elastic and limit equilibrium, mixed problem of the theory of elasticity and plasticity. Practical value. By increasing the load on the weak base as a result of the second track construction, adds embankment or increasing axial load when changing the rolling stock process of sedimentation and consolidation may continue again. Therefore, one of the feasible and promising options for the design and reconstruction of embankments on weak bases is to strengthen the bases with the help of jet grouting. With the expansion of the railway infrastructure, increasing speed and weight of the rolling stock is necessary to ensure the stability of the subgrade on weak bases. LIRA software package allows you to perform all the necessary calculations for the selection of a proper way of strengthening weak bases.

  3. Assessing the value of variational assimilation of streamflow data into distributed hydrologic models for improved streamflow monitoring and prediction at ungauged and gauged locations in the catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hak Su; Seo, Dong-Jun; Liu, Yuqiong; McKee, Paul; Corby, Robert

    2010-05-01

    State updating of distributed hydrologic models via assimilation of streamflow data is subject to "overfitting" because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously underdetermined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carried out a set of real-world experiments in which we assimilate streamflow data at interior and/or outlet locations into gridded SAC and kinematic-wave routing models of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM). We used for the experiments nine basins in the southern plains of the U.S. The experiments consist of selectively assimilating streamflow at different gauge locations, outlet and/or interior, and carrying out both dependent and independent validation. To assess the sensitivity of the quality of assimilation-aided streamflow simulation to the reduced dimensionality of the state space, we carried out data assimilation at spatially semi-distributed or lumped scale and by adjusting biases in precipitation and potential evaporation at a 6-hourly or larger scale. In this talk, we present the results and findings.

  4. Hydrological responses to climatic changes in the Yellow River basin, China: Climatic elasticity and streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Liu, Jianyu; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

    2017-11-01

    Prediction of streamflow of the Yellow River basin was done using downscaled precipitation and temperature based on outputs of 12 GCMs under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Streamflow changes of 37 tributaries of the Yellow River basin during 2070-2099 were predicted related to different GCMs and climatic scenarios using Budyko framework. The results indicated that: (1) When compared to precipitation and temperature during 1960-1979, increasing precipitation and temperature are dominant during 2070-2099. Particularly, under RCP8.5, increase of 10% and 30% can be detected for precipitation and temperature respectively; (2) Precipitation changes have larger fractional contribution to streamflow changes than temperature changes, being the major driver for spatial and temporal patterns of water resources across the Yellow River basin; (3) 2070-2099 period will witness increased streamflow depth and decreased streamflow can be found mainly in the semi-humid regions and headwater regions of the Yellow River basin, which can be attributed to more significant increase of temperature than precipitation in these regions; (4) Distinctly different picture of streamflow changes can be observed with consideration of different outputs of GCMs which can be attributed to different outputs of GCMs under different scenarios. Even so, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 36.8% and 71.1% of the tributaries of the Yellow River basin are dominated by increasing streamflow. The results of this study are of theoretical and practical merits in terms of management of water resources and also irrigated agriculture under influences of changing climate.

  5. Agent-Based Simulations for Project Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J. Chris; Sholtes, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Currently, the most common approach used in project planning tools is the Critical Path Method (CPM). While this method was a great improvement over the basic Gantt chart technique being used at the time, it now suffers from three primary flaws: (1) task duration is an input, (2) productivity impacts are not considered , and (3) management corrective actions are not included. Today, computers have exceptional computational power to handle complex simulations of task e)(eculion and project management activities (e.g ., dynamically changing the number of resources assigned to a task when it is behind schedule). Through research under a Department of Defense contract, the author and the ViaSim team have developed a project simulation tool that enables more realistic cost and schedule estimates by using a resource-based model that literally turns the current duration-based CPM approach "on its head." The approach represents a fundamental paradigm shift in estimating projects, managing schedules, and reducing risk through innovative predictive techniques.

  6. Design of simulation-based medical education and advantages and disadvantages of in situ simulation versus off-site simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Jette Led; Østergaard, Doris; LeBlanc, Vicki; Ottesen, Bent; Konge, Lars; Dieckmann, Peter; Van der Vleuten, Cees

    2017-01-21

    Simulation-based medical education (SBME) has traditionally been conducted as off-site simulation in simulation centres. Some hospital departments also provide off-site simulation using in-house training room(s) set up for simulation away from the clinical setting, and these activities are called in-house training. In-house training facilities can be part of hospital departments and resemble to some extent simulation centres but often have less technical equipment. In situ simulation, introduced over the past decade, mainly comprises of team-based activities and occurs in patient care units with healthcare professionals in their own working environment. Thus, this intentional blend of simulation and real working environments means that in situ simulation brings simulation to the real working environment and provides training where people work. In situ simulation can be either announced or unannounced, the latter also known as a drill. This article presents and discusses the design of SBME and the advantage and disadvantage of the different simulation settings, such as training in simulation-centres, in-house simulations in hospital departments, announced or unannounced in situ simulations. Non-randomised studies argue that in situ simulation is more effective for educational purposes than other types of simulation settings. Conversely, the few comparison studies that exist, either randomised or retrospective, show that choice of setting does not seem to influence individual or team learning. However, hospital department-based simulations, such as in-house simulation and in situ simulation, lead to a gain in organisational learning. To our knowledge no studies have compared announced and unannounced in situ simulation. The literature suggests some improved organisational learning from unannounced in situ simulation; however, unannounced in situ simulation was also found to be challenging to plan and conduct, and more stressful among participants. The importance of

  7. HYDRORECESSION: A toolbox for streamflow recession analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arciniega, S.

    2015-12-01

    Streamflow recession curves are hydrological signatures allowing to study the relationship between groundwater storage and baseflow and/or low flows at the catchment scale. Recent studies have showed that streamflow recession analysis can be quite sensitive to the combination of different models, extraction techniques and parameter estimation methods. In order to better characterize streamflow recession curves, new methodologies combining multiple approaches have been recommended. The HYDRORECESSION toolbox, presented here, is a Matlab graphical user interface developed to analyse streamflow recession time series with the support of different tools allowing to parameterize linear and nonlinear storage-outflow relationships through four of the most useful recession models (Maillet, Boussinesq, Coutagne and Wittenberg). The toolbox includes four parameter-fitting techniques (linear regression, lower envelope, data binning and mean squared error) and three different methods to extract hydrograph recessions segments (Vogel, Brutsaert and Aksoy). In addition, the toolbox has a module that separates the baseflow component from the observed hydrograph using the inverse reservoir algorithm. Potential applications provided by HYDRORECESSION include model parameter analysis, hydrological regionalization and classification, baseflow index estimates, catchment-scale recharge and low-flows modelling, among others. HYDRORECESSION is freely available for non-commercial and academic purposes.

  8. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  9. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  10. STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY REGRESSION MODELING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... downstream Obigbo station show: consistent time-trends in degree of contamination; linear and non-linear relationships for water quality models against total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended sediment (TSS), chloride, pH and sulphate; and non-linear relationship for streamflow and water quality transport models.

  11. An Agent-Based Monetary Production Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2006-01-01

    An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable......An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable...

  12. Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

    2017-12-01

    Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

  13. Why has streamflow in a northern Idaho creek increased while flows from many other watersheds in the US Pacific Northwest have decreased over the past sixty years?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, L.; Hudak, A. T.; Link, T. E.; Marshall, J. D.; Kavanagh, K.; Zhou, H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Pangle, R. E.; Flerchinger, G. N.; Denner, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    As global warming proceeds, evapotranspiration demand will increase, the precipitation regime may change, and water cycling in many ecosystems may be affected. Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the USA decreased in the last ~60 year possibly due to decreasing precipitation at high elevations and/or increasing evapotranspiration. However, an increasing trend of streamflow was observed at a 4km2 watershed in the Priest River Experimental Forest (PREF) in northern Idaho. We used the process-based soil-vegetation-atmosphere Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, to simulate the changes in the water cycle at PREF. Independent measurements were used to parameterize the model, including forest transpiration, stomatal responses to vapor pressure, forest properties (height, leaf area index, and biomass), soil properties, soil moisture, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. The model reasonably simulated the streamflow dynamics during the evaluation period from 2003 to 2010, which verified the ability of SHAW to simulate the water cycle at PREF. We then ran the model using historical vegetation cover and climate data to reveal the drivers of the changes in water budget of PREF over the past 60 years. Historical vegetation cover was obtained from a 1939 digitized historical vegetation map. The biggest change was the decline of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl. ex D. Don), a fast growing and deep rooted species with high transpiration rates, which was once a predominant species in PREF in the early 20th century. This was followed by a subsequent increase and decrease in fir species, followed by the emergence of western red cedar (Thuja plicata) as the current dominant tree species. The tree species shifts under this successional trajectory would have produced continually decreasing transpiration rates, which may explain the steady increase in observed runoff over the last ~60 years, which was likewise simulated with the SHAW model.

  14. A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Fleig

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of the study and the available data. In case of regional applications or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume, are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure, the inter-event time method (IT-method, and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA. The MA-procedure proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events. According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit are Generalized Pareto (GP distributed. It was found that this model indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models. In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed

  15. Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault

    2015-12-01

    River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.

  16. Phosphorus Export Model Development in a Terminal Lake Basin using Concentration-Streamflow Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeannotte, T.; Mahmood, T. H.; Matheney, R.; Hou, X.

    2017-12-01

    Nutrient export to streams and lakes by anthropogenic activities can lead to eutrophication and degradation of surface water quality. In Devils Lake, ND, the only terminal lake in the Northern Great Plains, the algae boom is of great concern due to the recent increase in streamflow and consequent rise in phosphorus (P) export from prairie agricultural fields. However, to date, very few studies explored the concentration (c) -streamflow (q) relationship in the headwater catchments of the Devils Lake basin. A robust watershed-scale quantitative framework would aid understanding of the c-q relationship, simulating P concentration and load. In this study, we utilize c-q relationships to develop a simple model to estimate phosphorus concentration and export from two headwater catchments of different size (Mauvais Coulee: 1032 km2 and Trib 3: 160 km2) draining to Devils Lake. Our goal is to link the phosphorus export model with a physically based hydrologic model to identify major drivers of phosphorus export. USGS provided the streamflow measurements, and we collected water samples (filtered and unfiltered) three times daily during the spring snowmelt season (March 31, 2017- April 12, 2017) at the outlets of both headwater catchments. Our results indicate that most P is dissolved and very little is particulate, suggesting little export of fine-grained sediment from agricultural fields. Our preliminary analyses in the Mauvais Coulee catchment show a chemostatic c-q relationship in the rising limb of the hydrograph, while the recession limb shows a linear and positive c-q relationship. The poor correlation in the rising limb of the hydrograph suggests intense flushing of P by spring snowmelt runoff. Flushing then continues in the recession limb of the hydrograph, but at a more constant rate. The estimated total P load for the Mauvais Coulee basin is 193 kg/km2, consistent with other catchments of similar size across the Red River of the North basin to the east. We expect

  17. Disentangling the response of streamflow to forest management and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, S.; Miniat, C.; Bladon, K. D.; Keppeler, E.; Caldwell, P. V.

    2016-12-01

    Paired watershed studies have showcased the relationships between forests, management, and streamflow. However, classical analyses of paired-watershed studies have done little to disentangle the effects of management from overarching climatic signals, potentially masking the interaction between management and climate. Such approaches may confound our understanding of how forest management impacts streamflow. Here we use a 50-year record of streamflow and climate data from the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds (CCEW), California, USA to separate the effects of forest management and climate on streamflow. CCEW has two treatment watersheds that have been harvested in the past 50 years. We used a nonlinear mixed model to combine the pre-treatment relationship between streamflow and climate and the post-treatment relationship via an interaction between climate and management into one equation. Our results show that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alone can account for >95% of the variability in pre-treatment streamflow. Including management scenarios into the model explained most of the variability in streamflow (R2 > 0.98). While forest harvesting altered streamflow in both of our modeled watersheds, removing 66% of the vegetation via selection logging using a tractor yarding system over the entire watershed had a more substantial impact on streamflow than clearcutting small portions of a watershed using cable-yarding. These results suggest that forest harvesting may result in differing impacts on streamflow and highlights the need to incorporate climate into streamflow analyses of paired-watershed studies.

  18. Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Rahman, Kazi; Beniston, Martin

    2014-09-01

    Changes in streamflow timing are studied in 27 mountain rivers in Spain, in the context of climate warming. The studied rivers are characterized by a highflows period in spring due to snowmelt, although differences in the role of snow and consequently in the timing of flows are observed amongst cases. We calculated for every year of the studied period (1976-2008) various hydrological indices that enable locating the timing of spring flows within the annual hydrologic regime, including the day of 75% of mass, and the day of spring maximum. The evolution of these indices was compared with that of seasonal precipitation and temperature, and trends in time were calculated. Results show a general negative trend in the studied indices which indicates that spring peaks due to snowmelt are shifting earlier within the hydrological year. Spring temperatures, which show a significant increasing trend, are the main co-variable responsible for the observed changes in the streamflow timing. In a second set of analyses we performed hydrological simulations with the SWAT model, in order to estimate changes in streamflow timing under projected warming temperatures. Projections show further shifting of spring peak flows along with a more pronounced low water level period in the summer. The simulations also allowed quantifying the role of snowfall-snowmelt on the observed changes in streamflow.

  19. Streamflow profile classification using functional data analysis: A case study on the Kelantan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamaludin, Suhaila

    2017-05-01

    Extreme rainfall events such as floods and prolonged dry spells have become common phenomena in tropical countries like Malaysia. Floods are regular natural disasters in Malaysia, and happen nearly every year during the monsoon season. Recently, the magnitude of streamflow seems to have altered frequently, both spatially and temporally. Therefore, in order to have effective planning and an efficient water management system, it is advisable that streamflow data are analysed continuously over a period of time. If the data are treated as a set of functions rather than as a set of discrete values, then this ensures that they are not restricted by physical time. In addition, the derivatives of the functions may themselves be treated as functional data, which provides new information. The objective of this study is to develop a functional framework for hydrological applications using streamflow as the functional data. The daily flow series from the Kelantan River Basin were used as the main input in this study. Seven streamflow stations were employed in the analysis. Classification between the stations was done using the functional principal component, which was based on the results of the factor scores. The results indicated that two stations, namely the Kelantan River (Guillemard Bridge) and the Galas River, have a different flow pattern from the other streamflow stations. The flow curves of these two rivers are considered as the extreme curves because of their different magnitude and shape.

  20. Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow to inform water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Amy; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet

    2015-04-01

    Drought indicators are an under-used metric in UK drought management. Standardised drought indicators offer a potential monitoring and management tool for operational water resource management. However, the use of these metrics needs further investigation. This work uses statistical analysis of the climatological drought signal based on meteorological drought indicators and observed streamflow data to explore the link between meteorological drought and hydrological drought to inform water resource management for a single water resource region. The region, covering 21,000 km2 of the English Midlands and central Wales, includes a variety of landscapes and climatological conditions. Analysis of the links between meteorological drought and hydrological drought performed using streamflow data from 'natural' catchments indicates a close positive relationship between meteorological drought indicators and streamflow, enhancing confidence in the application of drought indicators for monitoring and management. However, many of the catchments in the region are subject to modification through impoundments, abstractions and discharge. Therefore, it is beneficial to explore how climatological drought signal propagates into managed hydrological systems. Using a longitudinal study of catchments and sub-catchments that include natural and modified river reaches the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is explored. Initial statistical analysis of meteorological drought indicators and streamflow data from modified catchments shows a significantly weakened statistical relationship and reveals how anthropogenic activities may alter hydrological drought characteristics in modified catchments. Exploring how meteorological drought indicators link to streamflow across the water supply region helps build an understanding of their utility for operational water resource management.

  1. Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

  2. Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

  3. Designing solar thermal experiments based on simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huleihil, Mahmoud; Mazor, Gedalya

    2013-01-01

    In this study three different models to describe the temperature distribution inside a cylindrical solid body subjected to high solar irradiation were examined, beginning with the simpler approach, which is the single dimension lump system (time), progressing through the two-dimensional distributed system approach (time and vertical direction), and ending with the three-dimensional distributed system approach with azimuthally symmetry (time, vertical direction, and radial direction). The three models were introduced and solved analytically and numerically. The importance of the models and their solution was addressed. The simulations based on them might be considered as a powerful tool in designing experiments, as they make it possible to estimate the different effects of the parameters involved in these models

  4. Simulation based engineering in solid mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, J S

    2017-01-01

    This book begins with a brief historical perspective of the advent of rotating machinery in 20th century Solid Mechanics and the development of the discipline of the Strength of Materials. High Performance Computing (HPC) and Simulation Based Engineering Science (SBES) have gradually replaced the conventional approach in Design bringing science directly into engineering without approximations. A recap of the required mathematical principles is given. The science of deformation, strain and stress at a point under the application of external traction loads is next presented. Only one-dimensional structures classified as Bars (axial loads), Rods (twisting loads) and Beams (bending loads) are considered in this book. The principal stresses and strains and von Mises stress and strain that used in design of structures are next presented. Lagrangian solution was used to derive the governing differential equations consistent with assumed deformation field and solution for deformations, strains and stresses were obtai...

  5. Simulation-based education for transfusion medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Shanna; Rioux-Masse, Benjamin; Oancea, Cristina; Cohn, Claudia; Harmon, James; Konia, Mojca

    2015-04-01

    The administration of blood products is frequently determined by physicians without subspecialty training in transfusion medicine (TM). Education in TM is necessary for appropriate utilization of resources and maintaining patient safety. Our institution developed an efficient simulation-based TM course with the goal of identifying key topics that could be individualized to learners of all levels in various environments while also allowing for practice in an environment where the patient is not placed at risk. A 2.5-hour simulation-based educational activity was designed and taught to undergraduate medical students rotating through anesthesiology and TM elective rotations and to all Clinical Anesthesia Year 1 (CA-1) residents. Content and process evaluation of the activity consisted of multiple-choice tests and course evaluations. Seventy medical students and seven CA-1 residents were enrolled in the course. There was no significant difference on pretest results between medical students and CA-1 residents. The posttest results for both medical students and CA-1 residents were significantly higher than pretest results. The results of the posttest between medical students and CA-1 residents were not significantly different. The TM knowledge gap is not a trivial problem as transfusion of blood products is associated with significant risks. Innovative educational techniques are needed to address the ongoing challenges with knowledge acquisition and retention in already full curricula. Our institution developed a feasible and effective way to integrate TM into the curriculum. Educational activities, such as this, might be a way to improve the safety of transfusions. © 2014 AABB.

  6. Use of instantaneous streamflow measurements to improve regression estimates of index flow for the summer month of lowest streamflow in Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtschlag, David J.

    2011-01-01

    In Michigan, index flow Q50 is a streamflow characteristic defined as the minimum of median flows for July, August, and September. The state of Michigan uses index flow estimates to help regulate large (greater than 100,000 gallons per day) water withdrawals to prevent adverse effects on characteristic fish populations. At sites where long-term streamgages are located, index flows are computed directly from continuous streamflow records as GageQ50. In an earlier study, a multiple-regression equation was developed to estimate index flows IndxQ50 at ungaged sites. The index equation explains about 94 percent of the variability of index flows at 147 (index) streamgages by use of six explanatory variables describing soil type, aquifer transmissivity, land cover, and precipitation characteristics. This report extends the results of the previous study, by use of Monte Carlo simulations, to evaluate alternative flow estimators, DiscQ50, IntgQ50, SiteQ50, and AugmQ50. The Monte Carlo simulations treated each of the available index streamgages, in turn, as a miscellaneous site where streamflow conditions are described by one or more instantaneous measurements of flow. In the simulations, instantaneous flows were approximated by daily mean flows at the corresponding site. All estimators use information that can be obtained from instantaneous flow measurements and contemporaneous daily mean flow data from nearby long-term streamgages. The efficacy of these estimators was evaluated over a set of measurement intensities in which the number of simulated instantaneous flow measurements ranged from 1 to 100 at a site. The discrete measurement estimator DiscQ50 is based on a simple linear regression developed between information on daily mean flows at five or more streamgages near the miscellaneous site and their corresponding GageQ50 index flows. The regression relation then was used to compute a DiscQ50 estimate at the miscellaneous site by use of the simulated instantaneous flow

  7. Assessment on the Effect of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huanqing Bian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Tuotuo River basin, known as the source region of the Yangtze River, is the key area where the impact of climate change has been observed on many of the hydrological processes of this central region of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we examined six Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs scenarios. First, the already impacted climate change was analyzed, based on the historical data available and then, the simulation results of the GCMs and RCPs were used for future scenario assessments. Results indicated that the annual mean temperature will likely be increased, ranging from −0.66 °C to 6.68 °C during the three future prediction periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s, while the change in the annual precipitation ranged from −1.18% to 66.14%. Then, a well-known distributed hydrological soil vegetation model (DHSVM was utilized to evaluate the effects of future climate change on the streamflow dynamics. The seasonal mean streamflows, predicted by the six GCMs and the three RCPs scenarios, were also shown to likely increase, ranging from −0.52% to 22.58%. Watershed managers and regulators can use the findings from this study to better implement their conservation practices in the face of climate change.

  8. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  9. Multibus-based parallel processor for simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogrady, E. P.; Wang, C.-H.

    1983-01-01

    A Multibus-based parallel processor simulation system is described. The system is intended to serve as a vehicle for gaining hands-on experience, testing system and application software, and evaluating parallel processor performance during development of a larger system based on the horizontal/vertical-bus interprocessor communication mechanism. The prototype system consists of up to seven Intel iSBC 86/12A single-board computers which serve as processing elements, a multiple transmission controller (MTC) designed to support system operation, and an Intel Model 225 Microcomputer Development System which serves as the user interface and input/output processor. All components are interconnected by a Multibus/IEEE 796 bus. An important characteristic of the system is that it provides a mechanism for a processing element to broadcast data to other selected processing elements. This parallel transfer capability is provided through the design of the MTC and a minor modification to the iSBC 86/12A board. The operation of the MTC, the basic hardware-level operation of the system, and pertinent details about the iSBC 86/12A and the Multibus are described.

  10. Agent Programming Languages and Logics in Agent-Based Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, John

    2018-01-01

    and social behavior, and work on verification. Agent-based simulation is an approach for simulation that also uses the notion of agents. Although agent programming languages and logics are much less used in agent-based simulation, there are successful examples with agents designed according to the BDI...

  11. Computer-Based Simulation Games in Public Administration Education

    OpenAIRE

    Kutergina Evgeniia

    2017-01-01

    Computer simulation, an active learning technique, is now one of the advanced pedagogical technologies. Th e use of simulation games in the educational process allows students to gain a firsthand understanding of the processes of real life. Public- administration, public-policy and political-science courses increasingly adopt simulation games in universities worldwide. Besides person-to-person simulation games, there are computer-based simulations in public-administration education. Currently...

  12. Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the

  13. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  14. An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Pablo A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Clark, Elizabeth; Rothwell, Eric; Clark, Martyn P.; Nijssen, Bart; Brekke, Levi D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.

    2017-07-01

    For much of the last century, forecasting centers around the world have offered seasonal streamflow predictions to support water management. Recent work suggests that the two major avenues to advance seasonal predictability are improvements in the estimation of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and the incorporation of climate information. This study investigates the marginal benefits of a variety of methods using IHCs and/or climate information, focusing on seasonal water supply forecasts (WSFs) in five case study watersheds located in the US Pacific Northwest region. We specify two benchmark methods that mimic standard operational approaches - statistical regression against IHCs and model-based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) - and then systematically intercompare WSFs across a range of lead times. Additional methods include (i) statistical techniques using climate information either from standard indices or from climate reanalysis variables and (ii) several hybrid/hierarchical approaches harnessing both land surface and climate predictability. In basins where atmospheric teleconnection signals are strong, and when watershed predictability is low, climate information alone provides considerable improvements. For those basins showing weak teleconnections, custom predictors from reanalysis fields were more effective in forecast skill than standard climate indices. ESP predictions tended to have high correlation skill but greater bias compared to other methods, and climate predictors failed to substantially improve these deficiencies within a trace weighting framework. Lower complexity techniques were competitive with more complex methods, and the hierarchical expert regression approach introduced here (hierarchical ensemble streamflow prediction - HESP) provided a robust alternative for skillful and reliable water supply forecasts at all initialization times. Three key findings from this effort are (1) objective approaches supporting methodologically

  15. An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Mendoza

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available For much of the last century, forecasting centers around the world have offered seasonal streamflow predictions to support water management. Recent work suggests that the two major avenues to advance seasonal predictability are improvements in the estimation of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs and the incorporation of climate information. This study investigates the marginal benefits of a variety of methods using IHCs and/or climate information, focusing on seasonal water supply forecasts (WSFs in five case study watersheds located in the US Pacific Northwest region. We specify two benchmark methods that mimic standard operational approaches – statistical regression against IHCs and model-based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP – and then systematically intercompare WSFs across a range of lead times. Additional methods include (i statistical techniques using climate information either from standard indices or from climate reanalysis variables and (ii several hybrid/hierarchical approaches harnessing both land surface and climate predictability. In basins where atmospheric teleconnection signals are strong, and when watershed predictability is low, climate information alone provides considerable improvements. For those basins showing weak teleconnections, custom predictors from reanalysis fields were more effective in forecast skill than standard climate indices. ESP predictions tended to have high correlation skill but greater bias compared to other methods, and climate predictors failed to substantially improve these deficiencies within a trace weighting framework. Lower complexity techniques were competitive with more complex methods, and the hierarchical expert regression approach introduced here (hierarchical ensemble streamflow prediction – HESP provided a robust alternative for skillful and reliable water supply forecasts at all initialization times. Three key findings from this effort are (1 objective approaches supporting

  16. Simulation-Based System Design Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The research objective is to develop, test, and implement effective and efficient simulation techniques for modeling, evaluating, and optimizing systems in order to...

  17. Simulation-Based Testing of Distributed Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rutherford, Matthew J; Carzaniga, Antonio; Wolf, Alexander L

    2006-01-01

    .... Typically written using an imperative programming language, these simulations capture basic algorithmic functionality at the same time as they focus attention on properties critical to distribution...

  18. Simulation-based training for colonoscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Preisler, Louise; Svendsen, Morten Bo Søndergaard; Nerup, Nikolaj

    2015-01-01

    in colonoscopy before practicing on patients. Twenty-five physicians (10 consultants with endoscopic experience and 15 fellows with very little endoscopic experience) were tested on 2 different simulator models: a virtual-reality simulator and a physical model. Tests were repeated twice on each simulator model...... on both the models (P virtual-reality and the physical model, respectively. The established pass/fail standards failed one of the consultants (virtual-reality simulator) and allowed one fellow to pass (physical model). The 2 tested...

  19. An unusual kind of diurnal streamflow variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuevas Jaime G.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available During hydrological research in a Chilean swamp forest, we noted a pattern of higher streamflows close to midday and lower ones close to midnight, the opposite of an evapotranspiration (Et-driven cycle. We analyzed this diurnal streamflow signal (DSS, which appeared mid-spring (in the growing season. The end of this DSS coincided with a sustained rain event in autumn, which deeply affected stream and meteorological variables. A survey along the stream revealed that the DSS maximum and minimum values appeared 6 and 4 hours earlier, respectively, at headwaters located in the mountain forests/ plantations than at the control point in the swamp forest. Et in the swamp forest was higher in the morning and in the late afternoon, but this process could not influence the groundwater stage. Trees in the mountain headwaters reached their maximum Ets in the early morning and/or close to midday. Our results suggest that the DSS is a wave that moves from forests high in the mountains towards lowland areas, where Et is decoupled from the DSS. This signal delay seems to convert the link between streamflow and Et in an apparent, but spurious positive relationship. It also highlights the role of landscape heterogeneity in shaping hydrological processes.

  20. Watershed-scale modeling of streamflow change in incised montane meadows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essaid, Hedeff I.; Hill, Barry R.

    2014-01-01

    Land use practices have caused stream channel incision and water table decline in many montane meadows of the Western United States. Incision changes the magnitude and timing of streamflow in water supply source watersheds, a concern to resource managers and downstream water users. The hydrology of montane meadows under natural and incised conditions was investigated using watershed simulation for a range of hydrologic conditions. The results illustrate the interdependence between: watershed and meadow hydrology; bedrock and meadow aquifers; and surface and groundwater flow through the meadow for the modeled scenarios. During the wet season, stream incision resulted in less overland flow and interflow and more meadow recharge causing a net decrease in streamflow and increase in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. During the dry season, incision resulted in less meadow evapotranspiration and more groundwater discharge to the stream causing a net increase in streamflow and a decrease in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. In general, for a given meadow setting, the magnitude of change in summer streamflow and long-term change in watershed groundwater storage due to incision will depend on the combined effect of: reduced evapotranspiration in the eroded meadow; induced groundwater recharge; replenishment of dry season groundwater storage depletion in meadow and bedrock aquifers by precipitation during wet years; and groundwater storage depletion that is not replenished by precipitation during wet years.

  1. Preliminary stage and streamflow data at selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Maine and New Hampshire for the flood of October 30–31, 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiah, Richard G.; Stasulis, Nicholas W.

    2018-03-08

    Rainfall from a storm on October 24–27, 2017, and Tropical Storm Philippe on October 29–30, created conditions that led to flooding across portions of New Hampshire and western Maine. On the basis of streamflow data collected at 30 selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the Androscoggin River, Connecticut River, Merrimack River, and Saco River Basins, the storms caused minor to moderate flooding in those basins on October 30–31, 2017. During the storms, the USGS deployed hydrographers to take discrete measurements of streamflow. The measurements were used to confirm the stage-to-streamflow relation (rating curve) at the selected USGS streamgages. Following the storms, hydrographers documented high-water marks in support of indirect measurements of streamflow. Seven streamgages with greater than 50 years of streamflow data recorded preliminary streamflow peaks within the top five for the periods of record. Twelve streamgages recorded preliminary peak streamflows greater than an estimate of the 100-year streamflow based on drainage area.

  2. Streamflow responses in Chile to megathrust earthquakes in the 20th and 21st centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, Christian; Manga, Michael; Wang, Chi-yuen; Korup, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    Both coseismic static stress and dynamic stresses associated with seismic waves may cause responses in hydrological systems. Such responses include changes in the water level, hydrochemistry and streamflow discharge. Earthquake effects on hydrological systems provide a means to study the interaction between stress changes and regional hydrology, which is otherwise rarely possible. Chile is a country of frequent and large earthquakes and thus provides abundant opportunities to study such interactions and processes. We analyze streamflow responses in Chile to several megathrust earthquakes, including the 1943 Mw 8.1 Coquimbo, 1950 Mw 8.2 Antofagasta, 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia, 1985 Mw 8.0 Valparaiso, 1995 Mw 8.0 Antofagasta, 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, and the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquakes. We use data from 716 stream gauges distributed from the Altiplano in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South. This network covers the Andes mountain ranges, the central valley, the Coastal Mountain ranges and (mainly in the more southern parts) the Coastal flats. We combine empirical magnitude-distance relationships, machine learning tools, and process-based modeling to characterize responses. We first assess the streamflow anomalies and relate these to topographical, hydro-climatic, geological and earthquake-related (volumetric and dynamic strain) factors using various classifiers. We then apply 1D-groundwater flow modeling to selected catchments in order to test competing hypotheses for the origin of streamflow changes. We show that the co-seismic responses of streamflow mostly involved increasing discharges. We conclude that enhanced vertical permeability can explain most streamflow responses at the regional scale. The total excess water released by a single earthquake, i.e. the Maule earthquake, yielded up to 1 km3. Against the background of megathrust earthquakes frequently hitting Chile, the amount of water released by earthquakes is substantial, particularly for the arid northern

  3. A physical framework for evaluating net effects of wet meadow restoration on late summer streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, G.; Nash, C.; Selker, J. S.; Lewis, S.; Noël, P.

    2017-12-01

    Restoration of degraded wet meadows that develop on upland valley floors is intended to achieve a range of ecological benefits. A widely cited benefit is the potential for meadow restoration to augment late-season streamflow; however, there has been little field data demonstrating increased summer flows following restoration. Instead, the hydrologic consequences of restoration have typically been explored using coupled groundwater and surface water flow models at instrumented sites. The expected magnitude and direction of change provided by models has, however, been inconclusive. Here, we assess the streamflow benefit that can be obtained by wet meadow restoration using a parsimonious, physically-based approach. We use a one-dimensional linearized Boussinesq equation with a superimposed solution for changes in storage due to groundwater upwelling and and explicitly calculate evapotranspiration using the White Method. The model accurately predicts water table elevations from field data in the Middle Fork John Day watershed in Oregon, USA. The full solution shows that while raising channel beds can increase total water storage via increases in water table elevation in upland valley bottoms, the contributions of both lateral and longitudinal drainage from restored floodplains to late summer streamflow are undetectably small, while losses in streamflow due to greater transpiration, lower hydraulic gradients, and less drainable pore volume are substantial. Although late-summer streamflow increases should not be expected as a direct result of wet meadow restoration, these approaches offer benefits for improving the quality and health of riparian and meadow vegetation that would warrant considering such measures, even at the cost of increased water demand and reduced streamflow.

  4. Simulation of effects of wastewater discharges on Sand Creek and lower Caddo Creek near Ardmore, Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesolowski, Edwin A.

    1999-01-01

    A streamflow and water-quality model was developed for reaches of Sand and Caddo Creeks in south-central Oklahoma to simulate the effects of wastewater discharge from a refinery and a municipal treatment plant.The purpose of the model was to simulate conditions during low streamflow when the conditions controlling dissolved-oxygen concentrations are most severe. Data collected to calibrate and verify the streamflow and water-quality model include continuously monitored streamflow and water-quality data at two gaging stations and three temporary monitoring stations; wastewater discharge from two wastewater plants; two sets each of five water-quality samples at nine sites during a 24-hour period; dye and propane samples; periphyton samples; and sediment oxygen demand measurements. The water-quality sampling, at a 6-hour frequency, was based on a Lagrangian reference frame in which the same volume of water was sampled at each site. To represent the unsteady streamflows and the dynamic water-quality conditions, a transport modeling system was used that included both a model to route streamflow and a model to transport dissolved conservative constituents with linkage to reaction kinetics similar to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency QUAL2E model to simulate nonconservative constituents. These model codes are the Diffusion Analogy Streamflow Routing Model (DAFLOW) and the branched Lagrangian transport model (BLTM) and BLTM/QUAL2E that, collectively, as calibrated models, are referred to as the Ardmore Water-Quality Model.The Ardmore DAFLOW model was calibrated with three sets of streamflows that collectively ranged from 16 to 3,456 cubic feet per second. The model uses only one set of calibrated coefficients and exponents to simulate streamflow over this range. The Ardmore BLTM was calibrated for transport by simulating dye concentrations collected during a tracer study when streamflows ranged from 16 to 23 cubic feet per second. Therefore, the model is expected to

  5. The simulation of CAMAC system based on Windows API

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Lei; Song Yushou; Xi Yinyin; Yan Qiang; Liu Huilan; Li Taosheng

    2012-01-01

    Based on Windows API, a kind of design method to simulate the CAMAC System, which is commonly used in nuclear physics experiments, is developed. Using C++ object-oriented programming, the simulation is carried out in the environment of Visual Studio 2010 and the interfaces, the data-way, the control commands and the modules are simulated with the functions either user-defined or from Windows API. Applying this method, the amplifier plug AMP575A produced by ORTEC is simulated and performance experiments are studied for this simulation module. The results indicate that the simulation module can fulfill the function of pole-zero adjustment, which means this method is competent for the simulation of CAMAC System. Compared with the simulation based on LabVIEW, this way is more flexible and closer to the bottom of the system. All the works above have found a path to making the virtual instrument platform based on CAMAC system. (authors)

  6. Reconstructing streamflow variation of the Baker River from tree-rings in Northern Patagonia since 1765

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Antonio; Bahamondez, Alejandra; González-Reyes, Alvaro; Muñoz, Ariel A.; Cuq, Emilio; Ruiz-Gómez, Carolina

    2015-10-01

    The understanding of the long-term variation of large rivers streamflow with a high economic and social relevance is necessary in order to improve the planning and management of water resources in different regions of the world. The Baker River has the highest mean discharge of those draining both slopes of the Andes South of 20°S and it is among the six rivers with the highest mean streamflow in the Pacific domain of South America (1100 m3 s-1 at its outlet). It drains an international basin of 29,000 km2 shared by Chile and Argentina and has a high ecologic and economic value including conservation, tourism, recreational fishing, and projected hydropower. This study reconstructs the austral summer - early fall (January-April) streamflow for the Baker River from Nothofagus pumilio tree-rings for the period 1765-2004. Summer streamflow represents 45.2% of the annual discharge. The regression model for the period (1961-2004) explains 54% of the variance of the Baker River streamflow (R2adj = 0.54). The most significant temporal pattern in the record is the sustained decline since the 1980s (τ = -0.633, p = 1.0144 ∗ 10-5 for the 1985-2004 period), which is unprecedented since 1765. The Correlation of the Baker streamflow with the November-April observed Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is significant (1961-2004, r = -0.55, p < 0.001). The Baker record is also correlated with the available SAM tree-ring reconstruction based on other species when both series are filtered with a 25-year spline and detrended (1765-2004, r = -0.41, p < 0.01), emphasizing SAM as the main climatic forcing of the Baker streamflow. Three of the five summers with the highest streamflow in the entire reconstructed record occurred after the 1950s (1977, 1958 and 1959). The causes of this high streamflow events are not yet clear and cannot be associated with the reported recent increase in the frequency of glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The decreasing trend in the observed and reconstructed

  7. Past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Sun

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To understand the causes of the past water cycle variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and Xiashan within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at four hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend from 1961–2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80 m3 s−1 yr−1 and 1.29 m3 s−1 yr−1 at Meigang and Gaosha, respectively, are statistically significant at the 5% level. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in Meigang (3.79 m3 s−1 yr−1, Gaosha (1.12 m3 s−1 yr−1, and Xiashan (1.34 m3 s−1 yr−1, while the decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19 m3 s−1 yr−1. In addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four watersheds.

    For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and SRESB1 for the period of 2061–2100. When the future changes in the soil water storage

  8. Mississippi River streamflow measurement techniques at St. Louis, Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wastson, Chester C.; Holmes, Robert R.; Biedenham, David S.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow measurement techniques of the Mississippi River at St. Louis have changed through time (1866–present). In addition to different methods used for discrete streamflow measurements, the density and range of discrete measurements used to define the rating curve (stage versus streamflow) have also changed. Several authors have utilized published water surface elevation (stage) and streamflow data to assess changes in the rating curve, which may be attributed to be caused by flood control and/or navigation structures. The purpose of this paper is to provide a thorough review of the available flow measurement data and techniques and to assess how a strict awareness of the limitations of the data may affect previous analyses. It is concluded that the pre-1930s discrete streamflow measurement data are not of sufficient accuracy to be compared with modern streamflow values in establishing long-term trends of river behavior.

  9. Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Joseph; Zou, Chris B.; Andrews, William J.; Long, James M.; Liang, Ye; Qiao, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

  10. Causes of systematic over- or underestimation of low streamflows by use of index-streamgage approaches in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, K.; Kiang, J.E.; Chen, Y.-Y.; Carlisle, D.M.; Granato, G.E.

    2011-01-01

    Low-flow characteristics can be estimated by multiple linear regressions or the index-streamgage approach. The latter transfers streamflow information from a hydrologically similar, continuously gaged basin ('index streamgage') to one with a very limited streamflow record, but often results in biased estimates. The application of the index-streamgage approach can be generalized into three steps: (1) selection of streamflow information of interest, (2) definition of hydrologic similarity and selection of index streamgage, and (3) application of an information-transfer approach. Here, we explore the effects of (1) the range of streamflow values, (2) the areal density of streamgages, and (3) index-streamgage selection criteria on the bias of three information-transfer approaches on estimates of the 7-day, 10-year minimum streamflow (Q7, 10). The three information-transfer approaches considered are maintenance of variance extension, base-flow correlation, and ratio of measured to concurrent gaged streamflow (Q-ratio invariance). Our results for 1120 streamgages throughout the United States suggest that only a small portion of the total bias in estimated streamflow values is explained by the areal density of the streamgages and the hydrologic similarity between the two basins. However, restricting the range of streamflow values used in the index-streamgage approach reduces the bias of estimated Q7, 10 values substantially. Importantly, estimated Q7, 10 values are heavily biased when the observed Q7, 10 values are near zero. Results of the analysis also showed that Q7, 10 estimates from two of the three index-streamgage approaches have lower root-mean-square error values than estimates derived from multiple regressions for the large regions considered in this study.

  11. Streamflow gain and loss and water quality in the upper Nueces River Basin, south-central Texas, 2008-10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, J. Ryan; Lambert, Rebecca B.; Slattery, Richard N.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey-in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, The Nature Conservancy, the Real Edwards Conservation and Reclamation District, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department-investigated streamflow gain and loss and water quality in the upper Nueces River Basin, south-central Texas, specifically in the watersheds of the West Nueces, Nueces, Dry Frio, Frio, and Sabinal Rivers upstream from the Edwards aquifer outcrop. Streamflow in these rivers is sustained by groundwater contributions (for example, from springs) and storm runoff from rainfall events. To date (2012), there are few data available that describe streamflow and water-quality conditions of the rivers within the upper Nueces River Basin. This report describes streamflow gain-loss characteristics from three reconnaissance-level synoptic measurement surveys (hereinafter referred to as "surveys") during 2008-10 in the upper Nueces River Basin. To help characterize the hydrology, groundwater-level measurements were made, and water-quality samples were collected from both surface-water and groundwater sites in the study area from two surveys during 2009-10. The hydrologic (streamflow, springflow, and groundwater) measurements were made during three reconnaissance-level synoptic measurement surveys occurring in July 21-23, 2008; August 8-18, 2009; and March 22-24, 2010. These survey periods were selected to represent different hydrologic conditions. Streamflow gains and losses were based on streamflow and springflow measurements made at 74 sites in the study area, although not all sites were measured during each survey. Possible water chemistry relations among sample types (streamflow, springflow, or groundwater), between surveys, and among watersheds were examined using water-quality samples collected from as many as 20 sites in the study area.

  12. Technical note: Combining quantile forecasts and predictive distributions of streamflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Konrad; Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2017-11-01

    The enhanced availability of many different hydro-meteorological modelling and forecasting systems raises the issue of how to optimally combine this great deal of information. Especially the usage of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts with sometimes widely divergent predicted future streamflow values makes it even more complicated for decision makers to sift out the relevant information. In this study multiple streamflow forecast information will be aggregated based on several different predictive distributions, and quantile forecasts. For this combination the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach, the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR), also known as the ensemble model output statistic (EMOS) techniques, and a novel method called Beta-transformed linear pooling (BLP) will be applied. By the help of the quantile score (QS) and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), the combination results for the Sihl River in Switzerland with about 5 years of forecast data will be compared and the differences between the raw and optimally combined forecasts will be highlighted. The results demonstrate the importance of applying proper forecast combination methods for decision makers in the field of flood and water resource management.

  13. Competency-Based Training and Simulation: Making a "Valid" Argument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noureldin, Yasser A; Lee, Jason Y; McDougall, Elspeth M; Sweet, Robert M

    2018-02-01

    The use of simulation as an assessment tool is much more controversial than is its utility as an educational tool. However, without valid simulation-based assessment tools, the ability to objectively assess technical skill competencies in a competency-based medical education framework will remain challenging. The current literature in urologic simulation-based training and assessment uses a definition and framework of validity that is now outdated. This is probably due to the absence of awareness rather than an absence of comprehension. The following review article provides the urologic community an updated taxonomy on validity theory as it relates to simulation-based training and assessments and translates our simulation literature to date into this framework. While the old taxonomy considered validity as distinct subcategories and focused on the simulator itself, the modern taxonomy, for which we translate the literature evidence, considers validity as a unitary construct with a focus on interpretation of simulator data/scores.

  14. Simulation-based assessment for construction helmets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, James; Yang, James; Lei, Zhipeng; Liang, Daan

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a concerted effort for greater job safety in all industries. Personnel protective equipment (PPE) has been developed to help mitigate the risk of injury to humans that might be exposed to hazardous situations. The human head is the most vulnerable to impact as a moderate magnitude can cause serious injury or death. That is why industries have required the use of an industrial hard hat or helmet. There have only been a few articles published to date that are focused on the risk of head injury when wearing an industrial helmet. A full understanding of the effectiveness of construction helmets on reducing injury is lacking. This paper presents a simulation-based method to determine the threshold at which a human will sustain injury when wearing a construction helmet and assesses the risk of injury for wearers of construction helmets or hard hats. Advanced finite element, or FE, models were developed to study the impact on construction helmets. The FE model consists of two parts: the helmet and the human models. The human model consists of a brain, enclosed by a skull and an outer layer of skin. The level and probability of injury to the head was determined using both the head injury criterion (HIC) and tolerance limits set by Deck and Willinger. The HIC has been widely used to assess the likelihood of head injury in vehicles. The tolerance levels proposed by Deck and Willinger are more suited for finite element models but lack wide-scale validation. Different cases of impact were studied using LSTC's LS-DYNA.

  15. An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Organizational Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ruan, Sui; Gokhale, Swapna S; Pattipati, Krishna R

    2006-01-01

    In many fields, including engineering, management, and organizational science, simulation-based computational organization theory has been used to gain insight into the degree of match ("congruence...

  16. Drivers influencing streamflow changes in the Upper Turia basin, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmoral, Gloria; Willaarts, Bárbara A; Troch, Peter A; Garrido, Alberto

    2015-01-15

    Many rivers across the world have experienced a significant streamflow reduction over the last decades. Drivers of the observed streamflow changes are multiple, including climate change (CC), land use and land cover changes (LULCC), water transfers and river impoundment. Many of these drivers inter-act simultaneously, making it difficult to discern the impact of each driver individually. In this study we isolate the effects of LULCC on the observed streamflow reduction in the Upper Turia basin (east Spain) during the period 1973-2008. Regression models of annual streamflow are fitted with climatic variables and also additional time variant drivers like LULCC. The ecohydrological model SWAT is used to study the magnitude and sign of streamflow change when LULCC occurs. Our results show that LULCC does play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting increasing evapotranspiration and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and CC have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. An Example-Based Brain MRI Simulation Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qing; Roy, Snehashis; Jog, Amod; Pham, Dzung L

    2015-02-21

    The simulation of magnetic resonance (MR) images plays an important role in the validation of image analysis algorithms such as image segmentation, due to lack of sufficient ground truth in real MR images. Previous work on MRI simulation has focused on explicitly modeling the MR image formation process. However, because of the overwhelming complexity of MR acquisition these simulations must involve simplifications and approximations that can result in visually unrealistic simulated images. In this work, we describe an example-based simulation framework, which uses an "atlas" consisting of an MR image and its anatomical models derived from the hard segmentation. The relationships between the MR image intensities and its anatomical models are learned using a patch-based regression that implicitly models the physics of the MR image formation. Given the anatomical models of a new brain, a new MR image can be simulated using the learned regression. This approach has been extended to also simulate intensity inhomogeneity artifacts based on the statistical model of training data. Results show that the example based MRI simulation method is capable of simulating different image contrasts and is robust to different choices of atlas. The simulated images resemble real MR images more than simulations produced by a physics-based model.

  18. A dynamical-systems approach for computing ice-affected streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtschlag, David J.

    1996-01-01

    A dynamical-systems approach was developed and evaluated for computing ice-affected streamflow. The approach provides for dynamic simulation and parameter estimation of site-specific equations relating ice effects to routinely measured environmental variables. Comparison indicates that results from the dynamical-systems approach ranked higher than results from 11 analytical methods previously investigated on the basis of accuracy and feasibility criteria. Additional research will likely lead to further improvements in the approach.

  19. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  20. Development of a software framework for data assimilation and its applications for streamflow forecasting in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, S. J.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Yorozu, K.; Kim, S.

    2012-04-01

    Data assimilation methods have received increased attention to accomplish uncertainty assessment and enhancement of forecasting capability in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modeling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for sequential data assimilation, so called MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modeling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. Sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models based on MPI-OHyMoS considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for short-term streamflow forecasting of several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and remotely-sensed rainfall data such as X-band or C-band radar is estimated and mitigated in the sequential data assimilation.

  1. Regional climate change projections of streamflow characteristics in the Northeast and Midwest U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora M.C. Demaria

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Northeast and Midwest, United States. Study focus: Assessing the climate change impacts on the basin scale is important for water and natural resource managers. Here, the presence of monotonic trends and changes in climate-driven simulated 3-day peak flows, 7-day low flows, and mean base flows are evaluated in the Northeast and Midwest U.S. during the 20th and the 21st centuries using climate projections from sixteen climate models. Proven statistical methods are used to spatially and temporally disaggregate precipitation and temperature fields to a finer resolution before being used as drivers for a hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the region: Changes in the annual cycle of precipitation are likely to occur during the 21st century as winter precipitation increases and warmer temperatures reduce snow coverage across the entire domain especially in the northern basins. Maximum precipitation intensities are projected to become more intense across the region by mid-century especially along the coast. Positive trends in 3-day peak flows are also projected in the region as a result of the more intense precipitation, whereas the magnitude of 7-day low flows and mean base flows are projected to decrease. The length of the low flows season will likely extend by mid-century despite the increased precipitation as the atmospheric demand increases. Keywords: Streamflow peaks, Low flows, Trend analysis, Intense precipitation, Base flows

  2. Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Hashino

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa, issued sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected forecasts have important implications for their use in operational decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill.

  3. Linear genetic programming application for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan; Yerdelen, Cahit

    2014-09-01

    In recent decades, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been pronounced as a branch of computer science to model wide range of hydrological phenomena. A number of researches have been still comparing these techniques in order to find more effective approaches in terms of accuracy and applicability. In this study, we examined the ability of linear genetic programming (LGP) technique to model successive-station monthly streamflow process, as an applied alternative for streamflow prediction. A comparative efficiency study between LGP and three different artificial neural network algorithms, namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and radial basis function (RBF), has also been presented in this study. For this aim, firstly, we put forward six different successive-station monthly streamflow prediction scenarios subjected to training by LGP and FFBP using the field data recorded at two gauging stations on Çoruh River, Turkey. Based on Nash-Sutcliffe and root mean squared error measures, we then compared the efficiency of these techniques and selected the best prediction scenario. Eventually, GRNN and RBF algorithms were utilized to restructure the selected scenario and to compare with corresponding FFBP and LGP. Our results indicated the promising role of LGP for successive-station monthly streamflow prediction providing more accurate results than those of all the ANN algorithms. We found an explicit LGP-based expression evolved by only the basic arithmetic functions as the best prediction model for the river, which uses the records of the both target and upstream stations.

  4. Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D' Arrigo, Rosanne [Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Abram, Nerilie [The Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Ummenhofer, Caroline [University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Palmer, Jonathan [Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory, Canterbury (New Zealand); Mudelsee, Manfred [Climate Risk Analysis, Hannover (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum's streamflow record, only {proportional_to}45 years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September-November Citarum streamflow (AD 1759-2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from {proportional_to}1905-1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920-1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country's rice is grown. (orig.)

  5. Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Abram, Nerilie; Ummenhofer, Caroline; Palmer, Jonathan; Mudelsee, Manfred

    2011-02-01

    The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum's streamflow record, only ~45 years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September-November Citarum streamflow (AD 1759-2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from ~1905-1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920-1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country's rice is grown.

  6. Simulation-based training for thoracoscopic lobectomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Katrine; Ringsted, Charlotte; Hansen, Henrik Jessen

    2014-01-01

    overcome the first part of the learning curve, but no virtual-reality simulators for thoracoscopy are commercially available. This study aimed to investigate whether training on a laparoscopic simulator enables trainees to perform a thoracoscopic lobectomy. METHODS: Twenty-eight surgical residents were...... randomized to either virtual-reality training on a nephrectomy module or traditional black-box simulator training. After a retention period they performed a thoracoscopic lobectomy on a porcine model and their performance was scored using a previously validated assessment tool. RESULTS: The groups did...... not differ in age or gender. All participants were able to complete the lobectomy. The performance of the black-box group was significantly faster during the test scenario than the virtual-reality group: 26.6 min (SD 6.7 min) versus 32.7 min (SD 7.5 min). No difference existed between the two groups when...

  7. Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang Wei; Timothy E. Link; Andrew T. Hudak; John D. Marshall; Kathleen L. Kavanagh; John T. Abatzoglou; Hang Zhou; Robert E. Pangle; Gerald N. Flerchinger

    2016-01-01

    Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal...

  8. Spatial and Temporal Streamflow Trends in Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Feng Yeh

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate change has created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at gauging stations in Northern Taiwan are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis are the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. The slope trend is calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, change point analysis is conducted using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test and the cumulative deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of the 12 gauging stations in the study area is analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin show a significant downward streamflow trend. Results of the monthly and seasonal average streamflow analysis show that in the spring, 72.2% of the gauging stations showed upward streamflow trends, most of which were located in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins. The high and low flow data analysis shows that the Ximen Bridge Station was the only gauging station to feature a significant downward streamflow trend for both high and low flows. This distribution pattern provides valuable information for regional hydrological studies and water management.

  9. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J

    In the biological literature on animal behaviour, in addition to real experiments and field studies, also simulation experiments are a useful source of progress. Often specific mathematical modelling techniques are adopted and directly implemented in a programming language. Modelling more complex

  10. Simulation based analysis of laser beam brazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobler, Michael; Wiethop, Philipp; Schmid, Daniel; Schmidt, Michael

    2016-03-01

    Laser beam brazing is a well-established joining technology in car body manufacturing with main applications in the joining of divided tailgates and the joining of roof and side panels. A key advantage of laser brazed joints is the seam's visual quality which satisfies highest requirements. However, the laser beam brazing process is very complex and process dynamics are only partially understood. In order to gain deeper knowledge of the laser beam brazing process, to determine optimal process parameters and to test process variants, a transient three-dimensional simulation model of laser beam brazing is developed. This model takes into account energy input, heat transfer as well as fluid and wetting dynamics that lead to the formation of the brazing seam. A validation of the simulation model is performed by metallographic analysis and thermocouple measurements for different parameter sets of the brazing process. These results show that the multi-physical simulation model not only can be used to gain insight into the laser brazing process but also offers the possibility of process optimization in industrial applications. The model's capabilities in determining optimal process parameters are exemplarily shown for the laser power. Small deviations in the energy input can affect the brazing results significantly. Therefore, the simulation model is used to analyze the effect of the lateral laser beam position on the energy input and the resulting brazing seam.

  11. Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Vaněk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent based simulation platform is introduced that focuses on legitimate and illegitimate aspects of maritime traffic, mainly on intercontinental transport through piracy afflicted areas. The extensible architecture presented here comprises several modules controlling the simulation and the life-cycle of the agents, analyzing the simulation output and visualizing the entire simulated domain. The simulation control module is initialized by various configuration scenarios to simulate various real-world situations, such as a pirate ambush, coordinated transit through a transport corridor, or coastal fishing and local traffic. The environmental model provides a rich set of inputs for agents that use the geo-spatial data and the vessel operational characteristics for their reasoning. The agent behavior model based on finite state machines together with planning algorithms allows complex expression of agent behavior, so the resulting simulation output can serve as a substitution for real world data from the maritime domain.

  12. Budget Time: A Gender-Based Negotiation Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkacs, Linda L.; Barkacs, Craig B.

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a gender-based negotiation simulation designed to make participants aware of gender-based stereotypes and their effect on negotiation outcomes. In this simulation, the current research on gender issues is animated via three role sheets: (a) Vice president (VP), (b) advantaged department head, and (c) disadvantaged department…

  13. PCISIM - A Simulation Tool for PCI Bus Based Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharp, Robin

    1999-01-01

    This document describes a PCI bus simulator for use in evaluating the feasibility of system designs based on this bus.......This document describes a PCI bus simulator for use in evaluating the feasibility of system designs based on this bus....

  14. Adjusted Streamflow and Storage 1928-1989 : with Listings of Historical Streamflow, Summation of Storage Change and Adjusted Streamflow : Columbia River and Coastal Basins.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.G. Crook Company

    1993-04-01

    The development of irrigation projects since the 1830's and the construction of major dams and reservoirs since the early 1900's have altered substantially the natural streamflow regimen of the Columbia River and its tributaries. As development expanded a multipurpose approach to streamflow regulation evolved to provide flood control, irrigation, hydropower generation, navigation, recreation, water quality enhancement, fish and wildlife, and instream flow maintenance. The responsible agencies use computer programs to determine the effects of various alternative system regulations. This report describes the development of the streamflow data that these computer programs use.

  15. Preview-based sampling for controlling gaseous simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Ruoguan

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we describe an automated method for directing the control of a high resolution gaseous fluid simulation based on the results of a lower resolution preview simulation. Small variations in accuracy between low and high resolution grids can lead to divergent simulations, which is problematic for those wanting to achieve a desired behavior. Our goal is to provide a simple method for ensuring that the high resolution simulation matches key properties from the lower resolution simulation. We first let a user specify a fast, coarse simulation that will be used for guidance. Our automated method samples the data to be matched at various positions and scales in the simulation, or allows the user to identify key portions of the simulation to maintain. During the high resolution simulation, a matching process ensures that the properties sampled from the low resolution simulation are maintained. This matching process keeps the different resolution simulations aligned even for complex systems, and can ensure consistency of not only the velocity field, but also advected scalar values. Because the final simulation is naturally similar to the preview simulation, only minor controlling adjustments are needed, allowing a simpler control method than that used in prior keyframing approaches. Copyright © 2011 by the Association for Computing Machinery, Inc.

  16. Determining procedures for simulation-based training in radiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nayahangan, Leizl Joy; Nielsen, Kristina Rue; Albrecht-Beste, Elisabeth

    2018-01-01

    , and basic abdominal ultrasound. CONCLUSION: A needs assessment identified and prioritized 13 technical procedures to include in a simulation-based curriculum. The list may be used as guide for development of training programs. KEY POINTS: • Simulation-based training can supplement training on patients......OBJECTIVES: New training modalities such as simulation are widely accepted in radiology; however, development of effective simulation-based training programs is challenging. They are often unstructured and based on convenience or coincidence. The study objective was to perform a nationwide needs...... assessment to identify and prioritize technical procedures that should be included in a simulation-based curriculum. METHODS: A needs assessment using the Delphi method was completed among 91 key leaders in radiology. Round 1 identified technical procedures that radiologists should learn. Round 2 explored...

  17. Simulation Based Optimization for World Line Card Production System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan APAK

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Simulation based decision support system is one of the commonly used tool to examine complex production systems. The simulation approach provides process modules which can be adjusted with certain parameters by using data relatively easily obtainable in production process. World Line Card production system simulation is developed to evaluate the optimality of existing production line via using discrete event simulation model with variaty of alternative proposals. The current production system is analysed by a simulation model emphasizing the bottlenecks and the poorly utilized production line. Our analysis identified some improvements and efficient solutions for the existing system.

  18. Developing a Theory-Based Simulation Educator Resource.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Christine M; Sievers, Lisa D; Kellgren, Molly; Manning, Sara J; Rojas, Deborah E; Gamblian, Vivian C

    2015-01-01

    The NLN Leadership Development Program for Simulation Educators 2014 faculty development group identified a lack of a common language/terminology to outline the progression of expertise of simulation educators. The group analyzed Benner's novice-to-expert model and applied its levels of experience to simulation educator growth. It established common operational categories of faculty development and used them to organize resources that support progression toward expertise. The resulting theory-based Simulator Educator Toolkit outlines levels of ability and provides quality resources to meet the diverse needs of simulation educators and team members.

  19. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guimberteau, M; Ronchail, J; Lengaigne, M; Sultan, B; Drapeau, G; Espinoza, J C; Polcher, J; Guyot, J-L; Ducharne, A; Ciais, P

    2013-01-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35

  20. Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Hanh Nguyen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

  1. Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-10-01

    Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or -31 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr-1, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

  2. Estimation of Tile Drainage Contribution to Streamflow and Nutrient Export Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, K. E.; Arenas Amado, A.; Jones, C. S.; Weber, L. J.

    2015-12-01

    Subsurface drainage is a very common practice in the agricultural U.S. Midwest. It is typically installed in poorly drained soils in order to enhance crop yields. The presence of tile drains creates a route for agrichemicals to travel and therefore negatively impacts stream water quality. This study estimated through end-member analyses the contributions of tile drainage, groundwater, and surface runoff to streamflow at the watershed scale based on continuously monitored data. Especial attention was devoted to quantifying tile drainage impact on watershed streamflow and nutrient export loads. Data analyzed includes streamflow, rainfall, soil moisture, shallow groundwater levels, in-stream nitrate+nitrite concentrations and specific conductance. Data were collected at a HUC12 watershed located in Northeast Iowa, USA. Approximately 60% of the total watershed area is devoted to agricultural activities and forest and grassland are the other two predominant land uses. Results show that approximately 20% of total annual streamflow comes from tile drainage and during rainfall events tile drainage contribution can go up to 30%. Furthermore, for most of the analyzed rainfall events groundwater responded faster and in a more dramatic fashion than tile drainage. The State of Iowa is currently carrying out a plan to reduce nutrients in Iowa waters and the Gulf of Mexico (Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy). The outcome of this investigation has the potential to assist in Best Management Practice (BMP) scenario selection and therefore help the state achieve water quality goals.

  3. Macroinvertebrate community change associated with the severity of streamflow alteration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, Daren M.; Eng, Kenny; Nelson, S.M.

    2014-01-01

    Natural streamflows play a critical role in stream ecosystems, yet quantitative relations between streamflow alteration and stream health have been elusive. One reason for this difficulty is that neither streamflow alteration nor ecological responses are measured relative to their natural expectations. We assessed macroinvertebrate community condition in 25 mountain streams representing a large gradient of streamflow alteration, which we quantified as the departure of observed flows from natural expectations. Observed flows were obtained from US Geological Survey streamgaging stations and discharge records from dams and diversion structures. During low-flow conditions in September, samples of macroinvertebrate communities were collected at each site, in addition to measures of physical habitat, water chemistry and organic matter. In general, streamflows were artificially high during summer and artificially low throughout the rest of the year. Biological condition, as measured by richness of sensitive taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) and taxonomic completeness (O/E), was strongly and negatively related to the severity of depleted flows in winter. Analyses of macroinvertebrate traits suggest that taxa losses may have been caused by thermal modification associated with streamflow alteration. Our study yielded quantitative relations between the severity of streamflow alteration and the degree of biological impairment and suggests that water management that reduces streamflows during winter months is likely to have negative effects on downstream benthic communities in Utah mountain streams. 

  4. Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlene N. Kelly; Kevin J. McGuire; Chelcy Ford Miniat; James M. Vose

    2016-01-01

    Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the...

  5. Application of ANN and fuzzy logic algorithms for streamflow ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present study focusses on development of models using ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) algorithm for predicting the streamflow for catchment of Savitri River Basin. The input vector to these models were daily rainfall, mean daily evaporation, mean daily temperature and lag streamflow used. In the present study, 20 years ...

  6. Simulation-based training in echocardiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Monodeep; Patel, Rajendrakumar; German, Charles; Kharod, Anant; Mohamed, Ahmed; Dod, Harvinder S; Kapoor, Poonam Malhotra; Nanda, Navin C

    2016-10-01

    The knowledge gained from echocardiography is paramount for the clinician in diagnosing, interpreting, and treating various forms of disease. While cardiologists traditionally have undergone training in this imaging modality during their fellowship, many other specialties are beginning to show interest as well, including intensive care, anesthesia, and primary care trainees, in both transesophageal and transthoracic echocardiography. Advances in technology have led to the development of simulation programs accessible to trainees to help gain proficiency in the nuances of obtaining quality images, in a low stress, pressure free environment, often with a functioning ultrasound probe and mannequin that can mimic many of the pathologies seen in living patients. Although there are various training simulation programs each with their own benefits and drawbacks, it is clear that these programs are a powerful tool in educating the trainee and likely will lead to improved patient outcomes. © 2016, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Ocean Wave Simulation Based on Wind Field.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongyi Li

    Full Text Available Ocean wave simulation has a wide range of applications in movies, video games and training systems. Wind force is the main energy resource for generating ocean waves, which are the result of the interaction between wind and the ocean surface. While numerous methods to handle simulating oceans and other fluid phenomena have undergone rapid development during the past years in the field of computer graphic, few of them consider to construct ocean surface height field from the perspective of wind force driving ocean waves. We introduce wind force to the construction of the ocean surface height field through applying wind field data and wind-driven wave particles. Continual and realistic ocean waves result from the overlap of wind-driven wave particles, and a strategy was proposed to control these discrete wave particles and simulate an endless ocean surface. The results showed that the new method is capable of obtaining a realistic ocean scene under the influence of wind fields at real time rates.

  8. Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goerlandt, Floris, E-mail: floris.goerlandt@tkk.f [Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo (Finland); Kujala, Pentti [Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo (Finland)

    2011-01-15

    Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.

  9. Long-term generation scheduling of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydro plants considering monthly streamflow forecasting error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Mengfei; Zhou, Jianzhong; Li, Chunlong; Zhu, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Monthly streamflow forecasting error is considered. • An improved parallel progressive optimality algorithm is proposed. • Forecasting dispatching chart is manufactured accompanying with a set of rules. • Applications in Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydro plants. - Abstract: Reliable streamflow forecasts are very significant for reservoir operation and hydropower generation. But for monthly streamflow forecasting, the forecasting result is unreliable and it is hard to be utilized, although it has a certain reference value for long-term hydro generation scheduling. Current researches mainly focus on deterministic scheduling, and few of them consider the uncertainties. So this paper considers the forecasting error which exists in monthly streamflow forecasting and proposes a new long-term hydro generation scheduling method called forecasting dispatching chart for Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydro plants. First, in order to consider the uncertainties of inflow, Monte Carlo simulation is employed to generate streamflow data according to the forecasting value and error distribution curves. Then the large amount of data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used as inputs for long-term hydro generation scheduling model. Because of the large amount of streamflow data, the computation speed of conventional algorithm cannot meet the demand. So an improved parallel progressive optimality algorithm is proposed to solve the long-term hydro generation scheduling problem and a series of solutions are obtained. These solutions constitute an interval set, unlike the unique solution in the traditional deterministic long-term hydro generation scheduling. At last, the confidence intervals of the solutions are calculated and forecasting dispatching chart is proposed as a new method for long-term hydro generation scheduling. A set of rules are proposed corresponding to forecasting dispatching chart. The chart is tested for practical operations and achieves

  10. A Computer-Based Simulation of an Acid-Base Titration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boblick, John M.

    1971-01-01

    Reviews the advantages of computer simulated environments for experiments, referring in particular to acid-base titrations. Includes pre-lab instructions and a sample computer printout of a student's use of an acid-base simulation. Ten references. (PR)

  11. UAV Flight Control Based on RTX System Simulation Platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Duan

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes RTX and Matlab UAV flight control system simulation platform based on the advantages and disadvantages of Windows and real-time system RTX. In the simulation platform, we set the RTW toolbox configuration and modify grt_main.c in order to make simulation platform endowed with online parameter adjustment, fault injection. Meanwhile, we develop the interface of the system simulation platform by CVI, thus it makes effective and has good prospects in application. In order to improve the real-time performance of simulation system, the current computer of real-time simulation mostly use real-time operating system to solve simulation model, as well as dual- framework containing in Host and target machine. The system is complex, high cost, and generally used for the control and half of practical system simulation. For the control system designers, they expect to design control law at a computer with Windows-based environment and conduct real-time simulation. This paper proposes simulation platform for UAV flight control system based on RTX and Matlab for this demand.

  12. Simulation-Based Internal Models for Safer Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Blum

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the potential of mobile robots with simulation-based internal models for safety in highly dynamic environments. We propose a robot with a simulation of itself, other dynamic actors and its environment, inside itself. Operating in real time, this simulation-based internal model is able to look ahead and predict the consequences of both the robot’s own actions and those of the other dynamic actors in its vicinity. Hence, the robot continuously modifies its own actions in order to actively maintain its own safety while also achieving its goal. Inspired by the problem of how mobile robots could move quickly and safely through crowds of moving humans, we present experimental results which compare the performance of our internal simulation-based controller with a purely reactive approach as a proof-of-concept study for the practical use of simulation-based internal models.

  13. Streamflow statistics for development of water rights claims for the Jarbidge Wild and Scenic River, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2013-14: a supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5212

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Molly S.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), estimated streamflow statistics for stream segments designated “Wild,” “Scenic,” or “Recreational” under the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System in the Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness in southwestern Idaho. The streamflow statistics were used by the BLM to develop and file a draft, federal reserved water right claim to protect federally designated “outstanding remarkable values” in the Jarbidge River. The BLM determined that the daily mean streamflow equaled or exceeded 20, 50, and 80 percent of the time during bimonthly periods (two periods per month) and the bankfull (66.7-percent annual exceedance probability) streamflow are important thresholds for maintaining outstanding remarkable values. Although streamflow statistics for the Jarbidge River below Jarbidge, Nevada (USGS 13162225) were published previously in 2013 and used for the draft water right claim, the BLM and USGS have since recognized the need to refine streamflow statistics given the approximate 40 river mile distance and intervening tributaries between the original point of estimation (USGS 13162225) and at the mouth of the Jarbidge River, which is the downstream end of the Wild and Scenic River segment. A drainage-area-ratio method was used in 2013 to estimate bimonthly exceedance probability streamflow statistics at the mouth of the Jarbidge River based on available streamgage data on the Jarbidge and East Fork Jarbidge Rivers. The resulting bimonthly streamflow statistics were further adjusted using a scaling factor calculated from a water balance on streamflow statistics calculated for the Bruneau and East Fork Bruneau Rivers and Sheep Creek. The final, adjusted bimonthly exceedance probability and bankfull streamflow statistics compared well with available verification datasets (including discrete streamflow measurements made at the mouth of the Jarbidge River) and are considered the

  14. Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko

    2018-03-01

    Skilful hydrological forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in water resources management, hydropower operations, and agriculture, especially during drought conditions. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions, instead using initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), such as soil moisture, groundwater, and snow, as the source of skill. We benchmark when and where the ESP method is skilful across a diverse sample of 314 catchments in the UK and explore the relationship between catchment storage and ESP skill. The GR4J hydrological model was forced with historic climate sequences to produce a 51-member ensemble of streamflow hindcasts. We evaluated forecast skill seamlessly from lead times of 1 day to 12 months initialized at the first of each month over a 50-year hindcast period from 1965 to 2015. Results showed ESP was skilful against a climatology benchmark forecast in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. UK-wide mean ESP skill decayed exponentially as a function of lead time with continuous ranked probability skill scores across the year of 0.75, 0.20, and 0.11 for 1-day, 1-month, and 3-month lead times, respectively. However, skill was not uniform across all initialization months. For lead times up to 1 month, ESP skill was higher than average when initialized in summer and lower in winter months, whereas for longer seasonal and annual lead times skill was higher when initialized in autumn and winter months and lowest in spring. ESP was most skilful in the south and east of the UK, where slower responding catchments with higher soil moisture and groundwater storage are mainly located

  15. Automated numerical simulation of biological pattern formation based on visual feedback simulation framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mingzhu; Xu, Hui; Zeng, Xingjuan; Zhao, Xin

    2017-01-01

    There are various fantastic biological phenomena in biological pattern formation. Mathematical modeling using reaction-diffusion partial differential equation systems is employed to study the mechanism of pattern formation. However, model parameter selection is both difficult and time consuming. In this paper, a visual feedback simulation framework is proposed to calculate the parameters of a mathematical model automatically based on the basic principle of feedback control. In the simulation framework, the simulation results are visualized, and the image features are extracted as the system feedback. Then, the unknown model parameters are obtained by comparing the image features of the simulation image and the target biological pattern. Considering two typical applications, the visual feedback simulation framework is applied to fulfill pattern formation simulations for vascular mesenchymal cells and lung development. In the simulation framework, the spot, stripe, labyrinthine patterns of vascular mesenchymal cells, the normal branching pattern and the branching pattern lacking side branching for lung branching are obtained in a finite number of iterations. The simulation results indicate that it is easy to achieve the simulation targets, especially when the simulation patterns are sensitive to the model parameters. Moreover, this simulation framework can expand to other types of biological pattern formation.

  16. CUDA-based real time surgery simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Youquan; De, Suvranu

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present a general software platform that enables real time surgery simulation on the newly available compute unified device architecture (CUDA)from NVIDIA. CUDA-enabled GPUs harness the power of 128 processors which allow data parallel computations. Compared to the previous GPGPU, it is significantly more flexible with a C language interface. We report implementation of both collision detection and consequent deformation computation algorithms. Our test results indicate that the CUDA enables a twenty times speedup for collision detection and about fifteen times speedup for deformation computation on an Intel Core 2 Quad 2.66 GHz machine with GeForce 8800 GTX.

  17. Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

  18. Obtaining Streamflow Statistics for Massachusetts Streams on the World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, Kernell G.; Steeves, Peter A.; Freeman, Aleda; Singh, Raj

    2000-01-01

    A World Wide Web application has been developed to make it easy to obtain streamflow statistics for user-selected locations on Massachusetts streams. The Web application, named STREAMSTATS (available at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/massachusetts.html ), can provide peak-flow frequency, low-flow frequency, and flow-duration statistics for most streams in Massachusetts. These statistics describe the magnitude (how much), frequency (how often), and duration (how long) of flow in a stream. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published streamflow statistics, such as the 100-year peak flow, the 7-day, 10-year low flow, and flow-duration statistics, for its data-collection stations in numerous reports. Federal, State, and local agencies need these statistics to plan and manage use of water resources and to regulate activities in and around streams. Engineering and environmental consulting firms, utilities, industry, and others use the statistics to design and operate water-supply systems, hydropower facilities, industrial facilities, wastewater treatment facilities, and roads, bridges, and other structures. Until now, streamflow statistics for data-collection stations have often been difficult to obtain because they are scattered among many reports, some of which are not readily available to the public. In addition, streamflow statistics are often needed for locations where no data are available. STREAMSTATS helps solve these problems. STREAMSTATS was developed jointly by the USGS and MassGIS, the State Geographic Information Systems (GIS) agency, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Departments of Environmental Management and Environmental Protection. The application consists of three major components: (1) a user interface that displays maps and allows users to select stream locations for which they want streamflow statistics (fig. 1), (2) a data base of previously published streamflow statistics and descriptive information for 725 USGS data

  19. Haptic Feedback for the GPU-based Surgical Simulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Sangild; Mosegaard, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    The GPU has proven to be a powerful processor to compute spring-mass based surgical simulations. It has not previously been shown however, how to effectively implement haptic interaction with a simulation running entirely on the GPU. This paper describes a method to calculate haptic feedback...... with limited performance cost. It allows easy balancing of the GPU workload between calculations of simulation, visualisation, and the haptic feedback....

  20. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  1. Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koltun, G.F.; Holtschlag, David J.

    2010-01-01

    Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations.  Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages).Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the

  2. Tennessee StreamStats: A Web-Enabled Geographic Information System Application for Automating the Retrieval and Calculation of Streamflow Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, David E.; Law, George S.

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow and other stream-related information needed to protect people and property from floods, to plan and manage water resources, and to protect water quality in the streams. Streamflow statistics provided by the USGS, such as the 100-year flood and the 7-day 10-year low flow, frequently are used by engineers, land managers, biologists, and many others to help guide decisions in their everyday work. In addition to streamflow statistics, resource managers often need to know the physical and climatic characteristics (basin characteristics) of the drainage basins for locations of interest to help them understand the mechanisms that control water availability and water quality at these locations. StreamStats is a Web-enabled geographic information system (GIS) application that makes it easy for users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for USGS data-collection stations and for ungaged sites of interest. If a user selects the location of a data-collection station, StreamStats will provide previously published information for the station from a database. If a user selects a location where no data are available (an ungaged site), StreamStats will run a GIS program to delineate a drainage basin boundary, measure basin characteristics, and estimate streamflow statistics based on USGS streamflow prediction methods. A user can download a GIS feature class of the drainage basin boundary with attributes including the measured basin characteristics and streamflow estimates.

  3. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  4. Comparison of historical streamflows to 2013 Streamflows in the Williamson, Sprague, and Wood Rivers, Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Glen W.; Stonewall, Adam J.

    2014-01-01

    In 2013, the Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon, experienced a dry spring, resulting in an executive order declaring a state of drought emergency in Klamath County. The 2013 drought limited the water supply and led to a near-total cessation of surface-water diversions for irrigation above Upper Klamath Lake once regulation was implemented. These conditions presented a unique opportunity to understand the effects of water right regulation on streamflows. The effects of regulation of diversions were evaluated by comparing measured 2013 streamflow with data from hydrologically similar years. Years with spring streamflow similar to that in 2013 measured at the Sprague River gage at Chiloquin from water years 1973 to 2012 were used to define a Composite Index Year (CIY; with diversions) for comparison to measured 2013 streamflows (no diversions). The best-fit 6 years (1977, 1981, 1990, 1991, 1994, and 2001) were used to determine the CIY. Two streams account for most of the streamflow into Upper Klamath Lake: the Williamson and Wood Rivers. Most streamflow into the lake is from the Williamson River Basin, which includes the Sprague River. Because most of the diversion regulation affecting the streamflow of the Williamson River occurred in the Sprague River Basin, and because of uncertainties about historical flows in a major diversion above the Williamson River gage, streamflow data from the Sprague River were used to estimate the change in streamflow from regulation of diversions for the Williamson River Basin. Changes in streamflow outside of the Sprague River Basin were likely minor relative to total streamflow. The effect of diversion regulation was evaluated using the “Baseflow Method,” which compared 2013 baseflow to baseflow of the CIY. The Baseflow Method reduces the potential effects of summer precipitation events on the calculations. A similar method using streamflow produced similar results, however, despite at least one summer precipitation event. The

  5. Generalizable open source urban water portfolio simulation framework demonstrated using a multi-objective risk-based planning benchmark problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.

    2017-12-01

    The growing access and reduced cost for computing power in recent years has promoted rapid development and application of multi-objective water supply portfolio planning. As this trend continues there is a pressing need for flexible risk-based simulation frameworks and improved algorithm benchmarking for emerging classes of water supply planning and management problems. This work contributes the Water Utilities Management and Planning (WUMP) model: a generalizable and open source simulation framework designed to capture how water utilities can minimize operational and financial risks by regionally coordinating planning and management choices, i.e. making more efficient and coordinated use of restrictions, water transfers and financial hedging combined with possible construction of new infrastructure. We introduce the WUMP simulation framework as part of a new multi-objective benchmark problem for planning and management of regionally integrated water utility companies. In this problem, a group of fictitious water utilities seek to balance the use of the mentioned reliability driven actions (e.g., restrictions, water transfers and infrastructure pathways) and their inherent financial risks. Several traits of this problem make it ideal for a benchmark problem, namely the presence of (1) strong non-linearities and discontinuities in the Pareto front caused by the step-wise nature of the decision making formulation and by the abrupt addition of storage through infrastructure construction, (2) noise due to the stochastic nature of the streamflows and water demands, and (3) non-separability resulting from the cooperative formulation of the problem, in which decisions made by stakeholder may substantially impact others. Both the open source WUMP simulation framework and its demonstration in a challenging benchmarking example hold value for promoting broader advances in urban water supply portfolio planning for regions confronting change.

  6. Cavitation-based hydro-fracturing simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jy-An John; Wang, Hong; Ren, Fei; Cox, Thomas S.

    2016-11-22

    An apparatus 300 for simulating a pulsed pressure induced cavitation technique (PPCT) from a pressurized working fluid (F) provides laboratory research and development for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), oil, and gas wells. A pump 304 is configured to deliver a pressurized working fluid (F) to a control valve 306, which produces a pulsed pressure wave in a test chamber 308. The pulsed pressure wave parameters are defined by the pump 304 pressure and control valve 306 cycle rate. When a working fluid (F) and a rock specimen 312 are included in the apparatus, the pulsed pressure wave causes cavitation to occur at the surface of the specimen 312, thus initiating an extensive network of fracturing surfaces and micro fissures, which are examined by researchers.

  7. Immersive Simulation in Constructivist-Based Classroom E-Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHaney, Roger; Reiter, Lauren; Reychav, Iris

    2018-01-01

    This article describes the development of a simulation-based online course combining sound pedagogy, educational technology, and real world expertise to provide university students with an immersive experience in storage management systems. The course developed in this example does more than use a simulation, the entire course is delivered using a…

  8. Simulating individual-based models of epidemics in hierarchical networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quax, R.; Bader, D.A.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2009-01-01

    Current mathematical modeling methods for the spreading of infectious diseases are too simplified and do not scale well. We present the Simulator of Epidemic Evolution in Complex Networks (SEECN), an efficient simulator of detailed individual-based models by parameterizing separate dynamics

  9. Simulation-based modeling of building complexes construction management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepelev, Aleksandr; Severova, Galina; Potashova, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The study reported here examines the experience in the development and implementation of business simulation games based on network planning and management of high-rise construction. Appropriate network models of different types and levels of detail have been developed; a simulation model including 51 blocks (11 stages combined in 4 units) is proposed.

  10. Modeling ground-based timber harvesting systems using computer simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jingxin Wang; Chris B. LeDoux

    2001-01-01

    Modeling ground-based timber harvesting systems with an object-oriented methodology was investigated. Object-oriented modeling and design promote a better understanding of requirements, cleaner designs, and better maintainability of the harvesting simulation system. The model developed simulates chainsaw felling, drive-to-tree feller-buncher, swing-to-tree single-grip...

  11. Simulation of quantum computation : A deterministic event-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, K; De Raedt, K; De Raedt, H

    We demonstrate that locally connected networks of machines that have primitive learning capabilities can be used to perform a deterministic, event-based simulation of quantum computation. We present simulation results for basic quantum operations such as the Hadamard and the controlled-NOT gate, and

  12. Simulation of Quantum Computation : A Deterministic Event-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, K.; Raedt, K. De; Raedt, H. De

    2005-01-01

    We demonstrate that locally connected networks of machines that have primitive learning capabilities can be used to perform a deterministic, event-based simulation of quantum computation. We present simulation results for basic quantum operations such as the Hadamard and the controlled-NOT gate, and

  13. Web-based Interactive Simulator for Rotating Machinery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirohi, Vijayalaxmi

    1999-01-01

    Baroma (Balance of Rotating Machinery), the Web-based educational engineering interactive software for teaching/learning combines didactical and software ergonomical approaches. The software in tutorial form simulates a problem using Visual Interactive Simulation in graphic display, and animation is brought about through graphical user interface…

  14. Conceptual modeling for simulation-based serious gaming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, D.J.; Holkenborg, Bart; Robinson, Stewart

    2012-01-01

    In recent years many simulation-based serious games have been developed for supporting (future) managers in operations management decision making. They illustrate the high potential of using discrete event simulation for pedagogical purposes. Unfortunately, this potential does not seem to go

  15. Airway management in a bronchoscopic simulator based setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graeser, Karin; Konge, Lars; Kristensen, Michael S

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Several simulation-based possibilities for training flexible optical intubation have been developed, ranging from non-anatomical phantoms to high-fidelity virtual reality simulators. These teaching devices might also be used to assess the competence of trainees before allowing them...

  16. Simulation-Based Medical Education: An Ethical Imperative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziv, Amitai; Wolpe, Paul Root; Small, Stephen D.; Glick, Shimon

    2003-01-01

    Describes simulation-based learning in medical education and presents four these that make a framework for simulations: (1) best standards of care and training; (2) error management and patient safety; (3) patient autonomy; and (4) social justice and resource allocation. (SLD)

  17. Design-Based Comparison of Spine Surgery Simulators: Optimizing Educational Features of Surgical Simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Won Hyung A; Mostafa, Ahmed E; Dharampal, Navjit; Sharlin, Ehud; Kopp, Gail; Jacobs, W Bradley; Hurlbert, R John; Chan, Sonny; Sutherland, Garnette R

    2017-10-01

    Simulation-based education has made its entry into surgical residency training, particularly as an adjunct to hands-on clinical experience. However, one of the ongoing challenges to wide adoption is the capacity of simulators to incorporate educational features required for effective learning. The aim of this study was to identify strengths and limitations of spine simulators to characterize design elements that are essential in enhancing resident education. We performed a mixed qualitative and quantitative cohort study with a focused survey and interviews of stakeholders in spine surgery pertaining to their experiences on 3 spine simulators. Ten participants were recruited spanning all levels of training and expertise until qualitative analysis reached saturation of themes. Participants were asked to perform lumbar pedicle screw insertion on 3 simulators. Afterward, a 10-item survey was administrated and a focused interview was conducted to explore topics pertaining to the design features of the simulators. Overall impressions of the simulators were positive with regards to their educational benefit, but our qualitative analysis revealed differing strengths and limitations. Main design strengths of the computer-based simulators were incorporation of procedural guidance and provision of performance feedback. The synthetic model excelled in achieving more realistic haptic feedback and incorporating use of actual surgical tools. Stakeholders from trainees to experts acknowledge the growing role of simulation-based education in spine surgery. However, different simulation modalities have varying design elements that augment learning in distinct ways. Characterization of these design characteristics will allow for standardization of simulation curricula in spinal surgery, optimizing educational benefit. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Computer-Based Simulation Games in Public Administration Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kutergina Evgeniia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer simulation, an active learning technique, is now one of the advanced pedagogical technologies. Th e use of simulation games in the educational process allows students to gain a firsthand understanding of the processes of real life. Public- administration, public-policy and political-science courses increasingly adopt simulation games in universities worldwide. Besides person-to-person simulation games, there are computer-based simulations in public-administration education. Currently in Russia the use of computer-based simulation games in Master of Public Administration (MPA curricula is quite limited. Th is paper focuses on computer- based simulation games for students of MPA programmes. Our aim was to analyze outcomes of implementing such games in MPA curricula. We have done so by (1 developing three computer-based simulation games about allocating public finances, (2 testing the games in the learning process, and (3 conducting a posttest examination to evaluate the effect of simulation games on students’ knowledge of municipal finances. Th is study was conducted in the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE and in the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA during the period of September to December 2015, in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Two groups of students were randomly selected in each university and then randomly allocated either to the experimental or the control group. In control groups (n=12 in HSE, n=13 in RANEPA students had traditional lectures. In experimental groups (n=12 in HSE, n=13 in RANEPA students played three simulation games apart from traditional lectures. Th is exploratory research shows that the use of computer-based simulation games in MPA curricula can improve students’ outcomes by 38 %. In general, the experimental groups had better performances on the post-test examination (Figure 2. Students in the HSE experimental group had 27.5 % better

  19. Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

  20. Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

    1998-01-01

    An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

  1. a Simulation-As Framework Facilitating Webgis Based Installation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Z.; Chang, Z. Y.; Fei, Y. F.

    2017-09-01

    Installation Planning is constrained by both natural and social conditions, especially for spatially sparse but functionally connected facilities. Simulation is important for proper deploy in space and configuration in function of facilities to make them a cohesive and supportive system to meet users' operation needs. Based on requirement analysis, we propose a framework to combine GIS and Agent simulation to overcome the shortness in temporal analysis and task simulation of traditional GIS. In this framework, Agent based simulation runs as a service on the server, exposes basic simulation functions, such as scenario configuration, simulation control, and simulation data retrieval to installation planners. At the same time, the simulation service is able to utilize various kinds of geoprocessing services in Agents' process logic to make sophisticated spatial inferences and analysis. This simulation-as-a-service framework has many potential benefits, such as easy-to-use, on-demand, shared understanding, and boosted performances. At the end, we present a preliminary implement of this concept using ArcGIS javascript api 4.0 and ArcGIS for server, showing how trip planning and driving can be carried out by agents.

  2. Knowledge-based simulation using object-oriented programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidoran, Karen M.

    1993-01-01

    Simulations have become a powerful mechanism for understanding and modeling complex phenomena. Their results have had substantial impact on a broad range of decisions in the military, government, and industry. Because of this, new techniques are continually being explored and developed to make them even more useful, understandable, extendable, and efficient. One such area of research is the application of the knowledge-based methods of artificial intelligence (AI) to the computer simulation field. The goal of knowledge-based simulation is to facilitate building simulations of greatly increased power and comprehensibility by making use of deeper knowledge about the behavior of the simulated world. One technique for representing and manipulating knowledge that has been enhanced by the AI community is object-oriented programming. Using this technique, the entities of a discrete-event simulation can be viewed as objects in an object-oriented formulation. Knowledge can be factual (i.e., attributes of an entity) or behavioral (i.e., how the entity is to behave in certain circumstances). Rome Laboratory's Advanced Simulation Environment (RASE) was developed as a research vehicle to provide an enhanced simulation development environment for building more intelligent, interactive, flexible, and realistic simulations. This capability will support current and future battle management research and provide a test of the object-oriented paradigm for use in large scale military applications.

  3. Streamflow estimation in ungauged basins using remote sensed hydrological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasquez, Nicolas; Vargas, Ximena

    2017-04-01

    In several parts of the world the scarcity of streamflow gauging stations produces an important deficit of information, and calibrating these basins remains a challenge for hydrologists. Improvements in remote sensing have provided significant information about hydrological cycle, which can be used to calibrate a hydrological model when streamflow information is not available. Several satellite products related to snow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, among other variables provide essential information about hydrological processes, and can be used to calibrate physically based hydrological models. Despite this useful information, other aspects are unknown like aquifers dimensions or precipitation heterogeneity. We calibrated three snow driven basins in the Coquimbo Region in Northern Chile, using fSCA from MODIS (MOD10 and MYD10) and NDSI from Landsat. We also considered the MOD16 product to estimate evapotranspiration. Soil Moisture from AMSR-E was considered but it was not useful due to the spatial resolution of the product and the high heterogeneity of the terrain. The Cold Regional Hydrological Modal (CHRM) was selected to represent the hydrological processes due to the importance of snow processes which are, by far, the most important in this area, where precipitation falls as snow principally in winter (June to August) and the melting period begins in spring (September) and ends in the beginning of summer (December and January). The inputs used in the model are precipitation, temperature, short wave radiation, wind speed and relative humidity. The meteorological information was obtained from stations available in the area, and distributed spatially using orographic gradients for wind and precipitation and lapse rates for air temperature and dew point temperature. Short wave radiation was computed and corrected by cloud cover data from MODIS. Streamflow data was available but it was not used in the calibration process. The three basins are Cochiguaz river

  4. Implementing effective simulation-based education to improve ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Implementing effective simulation-based education to improve maternal ... by IDRC, including the contributions IDRC is making towards Canada's maternal child ... OECD's Development Co-Operation Report highlights critical role of data to ...

  5. Simulation-based optimization parametric optimization techniques and reinforcement learning

    CERN Document Server

    Gosavi, Abhijit

    2003-01-01

    Simulation-Based Optimization: Parametric Optimization Techniques and Reinforcement Learning introduces the evolving area of simulation-based optimization. The book's objective is two-fold: (1) It examines the mathematical governing principles of simulation-based optimization, thereby providing the reader with the ability to model relevant real-life problems using these techniques. (2) It outlines the computational technology underlying these methods. Taken together these two aspects demonstrate that the mathematical and computational methods discussed in this book do work. Broadly speaking, the book has two parts: (1) parametric (static) optimization and (2) control (dynamic) optimization. Some of the book's special features are: *An accessible introduction to reinforcement learning and parametric-optimization techniques. *A step-by-step description of several algorithms of simulation-based optimization. *A clear and simple introduction to the methodology of neural networks. *A gentle introduction to converg...

  6. Use of agent based simulation for traffic safety assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of an agent based Computational Building Simulation (CBS) tool, termed KRONOS that is being used to work on advanced research questions such as traffic safety assessment and user behaviour in buildings...

  7. Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

    2005-01-01

    .... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

  8. CFOA-Based Lossless and Lossy Inductance Simulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Kaçar

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Inductance simulator is a useful component in the circuit synthesis theory especially for analog signal processing applications such as filter, chaotic oscillator design, analog phase shifters and cancellation of parasitic element. In this study, new four inductance simulator topologies employing a single current feedback operational amplifier are presented. The presented topologies require few passive components. The first topology is intended for negative inductance simulation, the second topology is for lossy series inductance, the third one is for lossy parallel inductance and the fourth topology is for negative parallel (-R (-L (-C simulation. The performance of the proposed CFOA based inductance simulators is demonstrated on both a second-order low-pass filter and inductance cancellation circuit. PSPICE simulations are given to verify the theoretical analysis.

  9. Development of training simulator based on critical assemblies test bench

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narozhnyi, A.T.; Vorontsov, S.V.; Golubeva, O.A.; Dyudyaev, A.M.; Il'in, V.I.; Kuvshinov, M.I.; Panin, A.V.; Peshekhonov, D.P.

    2007-01-01

    When preparing critical mass experiment, multiplying system (MS) parts are assembled manually. This work is connected with maximum professional risk to personnel. Personnel training and keeping the skill of working experts is the important factor of nuclear safety maintenance. For this purpose authors develop a training simulator based on functioning critical assemblies test bench (CATB), allowing simulation of the MS assemblage using training mockups made of inert materials. The control program traces the current status of MS under simulation. A change in the assembly neutron physical parameters is mapped in readings of the regular devices. The simulator information support is provided by the computer database on physical characteristics of typical MS components The work in the training mode ensures complete simulation of real MS assemblage on the critical test bench. It makes it possible to elaborate the procedures related to CATB operation in a standard mode safely and effectively and simulate possible abnormal situations. (author)

  10. Virtual rounds: simulation-based education in procedural medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, David W.; Meglan, Dwight A.; Ferrell, Margaret; Dawson, Steven L.

    1999-07-01

    Computer-based simulation is a goal for training physicians in specialties where traditional training puts patients at risk. Intuitively, interactive simulation of anatomy, pathology, and therapeutic actions should lead to shortening of the learning curve for novice or inexperienced physicians. Effective transfer of knowledge acquired in simulators must be shown for such devices to be widely accepted in the medical community. We have developed an Interventional Cardiology Training Simulator which incorporates real-time graphic interactivity coupled with haptic response, and an embedded curriculum permitting rehearsal, hypertext links, personal archiving and instructor review and testing capabilities. This linking of purely technical simulation with educational content creates a more robust educational purpose for procedural simulators.

  11. Simulator for beam-based LHC collimator alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentino, Gianluca; Aßmann, Ralph; Redaelli, Stefano; Sammut, Nicholas

    2014-02-01

    In the CERN Large Hadron Collider, collimators need to be set up to form a multistage hierarchy to ensure efficient multiturn cleaning of halo particles. Automatic algorithms were introduced during the first run to reduce the beam time required for beam-based setup, improve the alignment accuracy, and reduce the risk of human errors. Simulating the alignment procedure would allow for off-line tests of alignment policies and algorithms. A simulator was developed based on a diffusion beam model to generate the characteristic beam loss signal spike and decay produced when a collimator jaw touches the beam, which is observed in a beam loss monitor (BLM). Empirical models derived from the available measurement data are used to simulate the steady-state beam loss and crosstalk between multiple BLMs. The simulator design is presented, together with simulation results and comparison to measurement data.

  12. A MARTe based simulator for the JET Vertical Stabilization system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellizio, Teresa, E-mail: teresa.bellizio@unina.it [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA-CREATE, University di Napoli Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Napoli (Italy); De Tommasi, Gianmaria; Risoli, Nicola; Albanese, Raffaele [Associazione EURATOM-ENEA-CREATE, University di Napoli Federico II, Via Claudio 21, 80125 Napoli (Italy); Neto, Andre [Associacao EURATOM/IST, Inst. de Plasmas e Fusao Nuclear - Laboratorio Associado, Instituto Superior, Tecnico, P-1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2011-10-15

    Validation by means of simulation is a crucial step when developing real-time control systems. Modeling and simulation are an essential tool since the early design phase, when the control algorithms are designed and tested. This phase is commonly carried out in off-line environments such as Matlab and Simulink. A MARTe-based simulator has been recently developed to validate the new JET Vertical Stabilization (VS) system. MARTe is the multi-thread framework used at JET to deploy hard real-time control systems. This paper presents the software architecture of the MARTe-based simulator and it shows how this tool has been effectively used to evaluate the effects of Edge Localized Modes (ELMs) on the VS system. By using the simulator it is possible to analyze different plasma configurations, extrapolating the limit of the new vertical amplifier in terms of the energy of the largest rejectable ELM.

  13. Improving the performance of a filling line based on simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek, M.; Bartkowiak, T.

    2016-08-01

    The paper describes the method of improving performance of a filling line based on simulation. This study concerns a production line that is located in a manufacturing centre of a FMCG company. A discrete event simulation model was built using data provided by maintenance data acquisition system. Two types of failures were identified in the system and were approximated using continuous statistical distributions. The model was validated taking into consideration line performance measures. A brief Pareto analysis of line failures was conducted to identify potential areas of improvement. Two improvements scenarios were proposed and tested via simulation. The outcome of the simulations were the bases of financial analysis. NPV and ROI values were calculated taking into account depreciation, profits, losses, current CIT rate and inflation. A validated simulation model can be a useful tool in maintenance decision-making process.

  14. How important is the spatiotemporal structure of a rainfall field when generating a streamflow hydrograph? An investigation using Reverse Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretzschmar, Ann; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith; Chappell, Nick

    2017-04-01

    Flooding is the most widely occurring natural disaster affecting thousands of lives and businesses worldwide each year, and the size and frequency of flood-events are predicted to increase with climate change. The main input-variable for models used in flood prediction is rainfall. Estimating the rainfall input is often based on a sparse network of raingauges, which may or may not be representative of the salient rainfall characteristics responsible for generating of storm-hydrographs. A method based on Reverse Hydrology (Kretzschmar et al 2014 Environ Modell Softw) has been developed and is being tested using the intensively-instrumented Brue catchment (Southwest England) to explore the spatiotemporal structure of the rainfall-field (using 23 rain gauges over the 135.2 km2 basin). We compare how well the rainfall measured at individual gauges, or averaged over the basin, represent the rainfall inferred from the streamflow signal. How important is it to get the detail of the spatiotemporal rainfall structure right? Rainfall is transformed by catchment processes as it moves to streams, so exact duplication of the structure may not be necessary. 'True' rainfall estimated using 23 gauges / 135.2 km2 is likely to be a good estimate of the overall-catchment-rainfall, however, the integration process 'smears' the rainfall patterns in time, i.e. reduces the number of and lengthens rain-events as they travel across the catchment. This may have little impact on the simulation of stream-hydrographs when events are extensive across the catchment (e.g., frontal rainfall events) but may be significant for high-intensity, localised convective events. The Reverse Hydrology approach uses the streamflow record to infer a rainfall sequence with a lower time-resolution than the original input time-series. The inferred rainfall series is, however, able simulate streamflow as well as the observed, high resolution rainfall (Kretzschmar et al 2015 Hydrol Res). Most gauged catchments in

  15. Agent-based simulation in entrepreneurship research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, S.-J.S.; Chandra, Y.

    2009-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) has wide applications in natural and social sciences yet it has not been widely applied in entrepreneurship research. We discuss the nature of ABM, its position among conventional methodologies and then offer a roadmap for developing, testing and extending theories of

  16. Impact of Different Time Series Streamflow Data on Energy Generation of a Run-of-River Hydropower Plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentel, E.; Cetinkaya, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    Global issues such as population increase, power supply crises, oil prices, social and environmental concerns have been forcing countries to search for alternative energy sources such as renewable energy to satisfy the sustainable development goals. Hydropower is the most common form of renewable energy in the world. Hydropower does not require any fuel, produces relatively less pollution and waste and it is a reliable energy source with relatively low operating cost. In order to estimate the average annual energy production of a hydropower plant, sufficient and dependable streamflow data is required. The goal of this study is to investigate impact of streamflow data on annual energy generation of Balkusan HEPP which is a small run-of-river hydropower plant at Karaman, Turkey. Two different stream gaging stations are located in the vicinity of Balkusan HEPP and these two stations have different observation periods: one from 1986 to 2004 and the other from 2000 to 2009. These two observation periods show different climatic characteristics. Thus, annual energy estimations based on data from these two different stations differ considerably. Additionally, neither of these stations is located at the power plant axis, thus streamflow observations from these two stream gaging stations need to be transferred to the plant axis. This requirement introduces further errors into energy estimations. Impact of different streamflow data and transfer of streamflow observations to plant axis on annual energy generation of a small hydropower plant is investigated in this study.

  17. Simulation-based learning: Just like the real thing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lateef Fatimah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation is a technique for practice and learning that can be applied to many different disciplines and trainees. It is a technique (not a technology to replace and amplify real experiences with guided ones, often "immersive" in nature, that evoke or replicate substantial aspects of the real world in a fully interactive fashion. Simulation-based learning can be the way to develop health professionals′ knowledge, skills, and attitudes, whilst protecting patients from unnecessary risks. Simulation-based medical education can be a platform which provides a valuable tool in learning to mitigate ethical tensions and resolve practical dilemmas. Simulation-based training techniques, tools, and strategies can be applied in designing structured learning experiences, as well as be used as a measurement tool linked to targeted teamwork competencies and learning objectives. It has been widely applied in fields such aviation and the military. In medicine, simulation offers good scope for training of interdisciplinary medical teams. The realistic scenarios and equipment allows for retraining and practice till one can master the procedure or skill. An increasing number of health care institutions and medical schools are now turning to simulation-based learning. Teamwork training conducted in the simulated environment may offer an additive benefit to the traditional didactic instruction, enhance performance, and possibly also help reduce errors.

  18. Simulation-based learning: Just like the real thing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lateef, Fatimah

    2010-10-01

    Simulation is a technique for practice and learning that can be applied to many different disciplines and trainees. It is a technique (not a technology) to replace and amplify real experiences with guided ones, often "immersive" in nature, that evoke or replicate substantial aspects of the real world in a fully interactive fashion. Simulation-based learning can be the way to develop health professionals' knowledge, skills, and attitudes, whilst protecting patients from unnecessary risks. Simulation-based medical education can be a platform which provides a valuable tool in learning to mitigate ethical tensions and resolve practical dilemmas. Simulation-based training techniques, tools, and strategies can be applied in designing structured learning experiences, as well as be used as a measurement tool linked to targeted teamwork competencies and learning objectives. It has been widely applied in fields such aviation and the military. In medicine, simulation offers good scope for training of interdisciplinary medical teams. The realistic scenarios and equipment allows for retraining and practice till one can master the procedure or skill. An increasing number of health care institutions and medical schools are now turning to simulation-based learning. Teamwork training conducted in the simulated environment may offer an additive benefit to the traditional didactic instruction, enhance performance, and possibly also help reduce errors.

  19. Cyber-Based Turbulent Combustion Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-28

    in flow-field structures between the laminar and turbulent counter-flowing fuel injection is clearly illustrated in figure 1. As a consequence , it...flame thickness by comparing with benchmark of AFRL/RZ ( UNICORN ) suppressing the oscillatory numerical behavior. These improvements in numerical...fraction with the benchmark results of AFRL/RZ. This validating base is generated by the UNICORN program on the finest mesh available and the local

  20. The cumulative effects of forest disturbance and climate variability on streamflow components in a large forest-dominated watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiang; Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang; Liu, Wenfei; Giles-Hansen, Krysta; Wang, Yi

    2018-02-01

    Assessing how forest disturbance and climate variability affect streamflow components is critical for watershed management, ecosystem protection, and engineering design. Previous studies have mainly evaluated the effects of forest disturbance on total streamflow, rarely with attention given to its components (e.g., base flow and surface runoff), particularly in large watersheds (>1000 km2). In this study, the Upper Similkameen River watershed (1810 km2), an international watershed situated between Canada and the USA, was selected to examine how forest disturbance and climate variability interactively affect total streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff. Baseflow was separated using a combination of the recursive digital filter method and conductivity mass balance method. Time series analysis and modified double mass curves were then employed to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of forest disturbance and climate variability to each streamflow component. Our results showed that average annual baseflow and baseflow index (baseflow/streamflow) were 113.3 ± 35.6 mm year-1 and 0.27 for 1954-2013, respectively. Forest disturbance increased annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff of 27.7 ± 13.7 mm, 7.4 ± 3.6 mm, and 18.4 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 27.0 ± 23.0%, 29.2 ± 23.1%, and 25.7 ± 23.4%, respectively. In contrast, climate variability decreased them by 74.9 ± 13.7 mm, 17.9 ± 3.6 mm, and 53.3 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 73.0 ± 23.0%, 70.8 ± 23.1% and 73.1 ± 23.4%, respectively. Despite working in opposite ways, the impacts of climate variability on annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff were of a much greater magnitude than forest disturbance impacts. This study has important implications for the protection of aquatic habitat, engineering design, and

  1. Estimating distribution parameters of annual maximum streamflows in Johor, Malaysia using TL-moments approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Jan, Nur Amalina; Shabri, Ani

    2017-01-01

    TL-moments approach has been used in an analysis to identify the best-fitting distributions to represent the annual series of maximum streamflow data over seven stations in Johor, Malaysia. The TL-moments with different trimming values are used to estimate the parameter of the selected distributions namely: Three-parameter lognormal (LN3) and Pearson Type III (P3) distribution. The main objective of this study is to derive the TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 methods for LN3 and P3 distributions. The performance of TL-moments ( t 1,0), t 1 = 1,2,3,4 was compared with L-moments through Monte Carlo simulation and streamflow data over a station in Johor, Malaysia. The absolute error is used to test the influence of TL-moments methods on estimated probability distribution functions. From the cases in this study, the results show that TL-moments with four trimmed smallest values from the conceptual sample (TL-moments [4, 0]) of LN3 distribution was the most appropriate in most of the stations of the annual maximum streamflow series in Johor, Malaysia.

  2. Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Bala, G.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A.W.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Nozawa, T.

    2009-01-01

    This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow "center" timing (the day in the "water-year" on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States_the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier "center" timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

  3. Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modeling heteroscedastic residual errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, David; Thyer, Mark; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lerat, Julien; Kuczera, George

    2017-03-01

    Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. This study focuses on approaches for representing error heteroscedasticity with respect to simulated streamflow, i.e., the pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. We evaluate eight common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter λ) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and the United States, and two lumped hydrological models. Performance is quantified using predictive reliability, precision, and volumetric bias metrics. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modeling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with λ of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (λ = 0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Paradoxically, calibration of λ is often counterproductive: in perennial catchments, it tends to overfit low flows at the expense of abysmal precision in high flows. The log-sinh transformation is dominated by the simpler Pareto optimal schemes listed above. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

  4. The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Van Tiel

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004 and future (2071–2100 period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1 the threshold from the historical period; (2 a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical

  5. The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

    2018-01-01

    Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a

  6. Colour based sorting station with Matlab simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Victor

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the design process and manufacturing elements of a colour-based sorting station. The system is comprised of a gravitational storage, which also contains the colour sensor. Parts are extracted using a linear pneumatic motor and are fed onto an electrically driven conveyor belt. Extraction of the parts is done at 4 points, using two pneumatic motors and a geared DC motor, while the 4th position is at the end of the belt. The mechanical parts of the system are manufactured using 3D printer technology, allowing for easy modification and adaption to the geometry of different parts. The paper shows all of the stages needed to design, optimize, test and implement the proposed solution. System optimization was performed using a graphical Matlab interface which also allows for sorting algorithm optimization.

  7. Module-based Simulation System for efficient development of nuclear simulation programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Wakabayashi, Jiro

    1990-01-01

    Module-based Simulation System (MSS) has been developed to realize a new software environment enabling versatile dynamic simulation of a complex nuclear power plant system flexibly. Described in the paper are (i) fundamental methods utilized in MMS and its software systemization, (ii) development of human interface system to help users in generating integrated simulation programs automatically, and (iii) development of an intelligent user support system for helping users in the two phases of automatical semantic diagnosis and consultation to automatic input data setup for the MSS-generated programs. (author)

  8. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

    2017-12-01

    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  9. Laguna Verde simulator: A new TRAC-RT based application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz Cases, J.J.; Tanarro Onrubia, A.

    2006-01-01

    In a partnership with GSE Systems, TECNATOM is developing a full scope training simulator for Laguna Verde Unit 2 (LV2). The simulator design is based upon the current 'state-of-the art technology' regarding the simulation platform, instructor station, visualization tools, advanced thermalhydraulics and neutronics models, I/O systems and automated model building technology. When completed, LV2 simulator will achieve a remarkable level of modeling fidelity by using TECNATOM's TRAC-RT advanced thermalhydraulic code for the reactor coolant and main steam systems, and NEMO neutronic model for the reactor core calculations. These models have been utilized up to date for the development or upgrading of nine NPP simulators in Spain and abroad, with more than 8000 hours of training sessions, and have developed an excellent reputation for its robustness and high fidelity. (author)

  10. Computing daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Iowa by using the Flow Anywhere and Flow Duration Curve Transfer statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linhart, S. Mike; Nania, Jon F.; Sanders, Curtis L.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains approximately 148 real-time streamgages in Iowa for which daily mean streamflow information is available, but daily mean streamflow data commonly are needed at locations where no streamgages are present. Therefore, the USGS conducted a study as part of a larger project in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to develop methods to estimate daily mean streamflow at locations in ungaged watersheds in Iowa by using two regression-based statistical methods. The regression equations for the statistical methods were developed from historical daily mean streamflow and basin characteristics from streamgages within the study area, which includes the entire State of Iowa and adjacent areas within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa in neighboring states. Results of this study can be used with other techniques to determine the best method for application in Iowa and can be used to produce a Web-based geographic information system tool to compute streamflow estimates automatically. The Flow Anywhere statistical method is a variation of the drainage-area-ratio method, which transfers same-day streamflow information from a reference streamgage to another location by using the daily mean streamflow at the reference streamgage and the drainage-area ratio of the two locations. The Flow Anywhere method modifies the drainage-area-ratio method in order to regionalize the equations for Iowa and determine the best reference streamgage from which to transfer same-day streamflow information to an ungaged location. Data used for the Flow Anywhere method were retrieved for 123 continuous-record streamgages located in Iowa and within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa. The final regression equations were computed by using either left-censored regression techniques with a low limit threshold set at 0.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and the daily mean streamflow for the 15th day of every other month, or by using an ordinary-least-squares multiple

  11. Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentin, Melissa M.; Viger, Roland J.; Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hogue, Terri S.; Foks, Nathan Leon

    2018-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

  12. SIDH: A Game-Based Architecture for a Training Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Backlund

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Game-based simulators, sometimes referred to as “lightweight” simulators, have benefits such as flexible technology and economic feasibility. In this article, we extend the notion of a game-based simulator by introducing multiple screen view and physical interaction. These features are expected to enhance immersion and fidelity. By utilizing these concepts we have constructed a training simulator for breathing apparatus entry. Game hardware and software have been used to produce the application. More important, the application itself is deliberately designed to be a game. Indeed, one important design goal is to create an entertaining and motivating experience combined with learning goals in order to create a serious game. The system has been evaluated in cooperation with the Swedish Rescue Services Agency to see which architectural features contribute to perceived fidelity. The modes of visualization and interaction as well as level design contribute to the usefulness of the system.

  13. Testing and modelling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity of streamflow processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Wang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional streamflow models operate under the assumption of constant variance or season-dependent variances (e.g. ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average models for deseasonalized streamflow series and PARMA (Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average models for seasonal streamflow series. However, with McLeod-Li test and Engle's Lagrange Multiplier test, clear evidences are found for the existence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (i.e. the ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effect, a nonlinear phenomenon of the variance behaviour, in the residual series from linear models fitted to daily and monthly streamflow processes of the upper Yellow River, China. It is shown that the major cause of the ARCH effect is the seasonal variation in variance of the residual series. However, while the seasonal variation in variance can fully explain the ARCH effect for monthly streamflow, it is only a partial explanation for daily flow. It is also shown that while the periodic autoregressive moving average model is adequate in modelling monthly flows, no model is adequate in modelling daily streamflow processes because none of the conventional time series models takes the seasonal variation in variance, as well as the ARCH effect in the residuals, into account. Therefore, an ARMA-GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity error model is proposed to capture the ARCH effect present in daily streamflow series, as well as to preserve seasonal variation in variance in the residuals. The ARMA-GARCH error model combines an ARMA model for modelling the mean behaviour and a GARCH model for modelling the variance behaviour of the residuals from the ARMA model. Since the GARCH model is not followed widely in statistical hydrology, the work can be a useful addition in terms of statistical modelling of daily streamflow processes for the hydrological community.

  14. A Table-Based Random Sampling Simulation for Bioluminescence Tomography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomeng Zhang

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available As a popular simulation of photon propagation in turbid media, the main problem of Monte Carlo (MC method is its cumbersome computation. In this work a table-based random sampling simulation (TBRS is proposed. The key idea of TBRS is to simplify multisteps of scattering to a single-step process, through randomly table querying, thus greatly reducing the computing complexity of the conventional MC algorithm and expediting the computation. The TBRS simulation is a fast algorithm of the conventional MC simulation of photon propagation. It retained the merits of flexibility and accuracy of conventional MC method and adapted well to complex geometric media and various source shapes. Both MC simulations were conducted in a homogeneous medium in our work. Also, we present a reconstructing approach to estimate the position of the fluorescent source based on the trial-and-error theory as a validation of the TBRS algorithm. Good agreement is found between the conventional MC simulation and the TBRS simulation.

  15. An FPGA-Based Massively Parallel Neuromorphic Cortex Simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Runchun M; Thakur, Chetan S; van Schaik, André

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a massively parallel and scalable neuromorphic cortex simulator designed for simulating large and structurally connected spiking neural networks, such as complex models of various areas of the cortex. The main novelty of this work is the abstraction of a neuromorphic architecture into clusters represented by minicolumns and hypercolumns, analogously to the fundamental structural units observed in neurobiology. Without this approach, simulating large-scale fully connected networks needs prohibitively large memory to store look-up tables for point-to-point connections. Instead, we use a novel architecture, based on the structural connectivity in the neocortex, such that all the required parameters and connections can be stored in on-chip memory. The cortex simulator can be easily reconfigured for simulating different neural networks without any change in hardware structure by programming the memory. A hierarchical communication scheme allows one neuron to have a fan-out of up to 200 k neurons. As a proof-of-concept, an implementation on one Altera Stratix V FPGA was able to simulate 20 million to 2.6 billion leaky-integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons in real time. We verified the system by emulating a simplified auditory cortex (with 100 million neurons). This cortex simulator achieved a low power dissipation of 1.62 μW per neuron. With the advent of commercially available FPGA boards, our system offers an accessible and scalable tool for the design, real-time simulation, and analysis of large-scale spiking neural networks.

  16. A review of computer-based simulators for ultrasound training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Tobias; Rieger, Andreas; Navab, Nassir; Friess, Helmut; Martignoni, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Computer-based simulators for ultrasound training are a topic of recent interest. During the last 15 years, many different systems and methods have been proposed. This article provides an overview and classification of systems in this domain and a discussion of their advantages. Systems are classified and discussed according to the image simulation method, user interactions and medical applications. Computer simulation of ultrasound has one key advantage over traditional training. It enables novel training concepts, for example, through advanced visualization, case databases, and automatically generated feedback. Qualitative evaluations have mainly shown positive learning effects. However, few quantitative evaluations have been performed and long-term effects have to be examined.

  17. Modeling and simulation for micro DC motor based on simulink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Hanxin; Lei, Qiao; Chen, Wenxiang

    2017-09-01

    The micro DC motor has a large market demand but there is a lack of theoretical research for it. Through detailed analysis of the commutation process of micro DC motor commutator, based on micro DC motor electromagnetic torque equation and mechanical torque equation, with the help of Simulink toolkit, a triangle connection micro DC motor simulation model is established. By using the model, a sample micro DC motor are simulated, and an experimental measurements has been carried on the sample micro DC motor. It is found that the simulation results are consistent with theoretical analysis and experimental results.

  18. Discrete simulation system based on artificial intelligence methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Futo, I; Szeredi, J

    1982-01-01

    A discrete event simulation system based on the AI language Prolog is presented. The system called t-Prolog extends the traditional possibilities of simulation languages toward automatic problem solving by using backtrack in time and automatic model modification depending on logical deductions. As t-Prolog is an interactive tool, the user has the possibility to interrupt the simulation run to modify the model or to force it to return to a previous state for trying possible alternatives. It admits the construction of goal-oriented or goal-seeking models with variable structure. Models are defined in a restricted version of the first order predicate calculus using Horn clauses. 21 references.

  19. Wind flow simulation over flat terrain using CFD based software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrov, Peter; Terziev, Angel; Genovski, Ivan

    2009-01-01

    Velocity distribution recognition over definite place (terrain) is very important because due to that the zones with high energy potential could be defined (the fields with high velocities). This is a precondition for optimal wind turbine generators micro-sitting. In current work a simulation of the open flow over the flat terrain using the CFD based software is reviewed. The simulations are made of a real fluid flow in order to be defined the velocity fields over the terrain

  20. Quadcopter Attitude and Thrust Simulation Based on Simulink Platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Endrowednes Kuantama

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Orientation of quadcopter axes relative to reference line direction of motion will result in attitude and every movement is controlled regulated by each rotor’s thrust. Mathematical equation based on Euler formula and 3D simulation using Matlab/Simulink software platform are used to model quadcopter movement. Change of attitude, position and thrust of each rotor can be seen through this simulation movement.

  1. Microprocessor-based simulator of surface ECG signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MartInez, A E; Rossi, E; Siri, L Nicola

    2007-01-01

    In this work, a simulator of surface electrocardiogram recorded signals (ECG) is presented. The device, based on a microcontroller and commanded by a personal computer, produces an analog signal resembling actual ECGs, not only in time course and voltage levels, but also in source impedance. The simulator is a useful tool for electrocardiograph calibration and monitoring, to incorporate as well in educational tasks and in clinical environments for early detection of faulty behaviour

  2. Substantial proportion of global streamflow less than three months old

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasechko, Scott; Kirchner, James W.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycles, contaminant transport and chemical weathering are regulated by the speed at which precipitation travels through landscapes and reaches streams. Streamflow is a mixture of young and old precipitation, but the global proportions of these young and old components are not known. Here we analyse seasonal cycles of oxygen isotope ratios in rain, snow and streamflow compiled from 254 watersheds around the world, and calculate the fraction of streamflow that is derived from precipitation that fell within the past two or three months. This young streamflow accounts for about a third of global river discharge, and comprises at least 5% of discharge in about 90% of the catchments we investigated. We conclude that, although typical catchments have mean transit times of years or even decades, they nonetheless can rapidly transmit substantial fractions of soluble contaminant inputs to streams. Young streamflow is less prevalent in steeper landscapes, which suggests they are characterized by deeper vertical infiltration. Because young streamflow is derived from less than 0.1% of global groundwater storage, we conclude that this thin veneer of aquifer storage will have a disproportionate influence on stream water quality.

  3. Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Samuel H.

    2014-01-01

    Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

  4. Enriching Triangle Mesh Animations with Physically Based Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yijing; Xu, Hongyi; Barbic, Jernej

    2017-10-01

    We present a system to combine arbitrary triangle mesh animations with physically based Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation, enabling control over the combination both in space and time. The input is a triangle mesh animation obtained using any method, such as keyframed animation, character rigging, 3D scanning, or geometric shape modeling. The input may be non-physical, crude or even incomplete. The user provides weights, specified using a minimal user interface, for how much physically based simulation should be allowed to modify the animation in any region of the model, and in time. Our system then computes a physically-based animation that is constrained to the input animation to the amount prescribed by these weights. This permits smoothly turning physics on and off over space and time, making it possible for the output to strictly follow the input, to evolve purely based on physically based simulation, and anything in between. Achieving such results requires a careful combination of several system components. We propose and analyze these components, including proper automatic creation of simulation meshes (even for non-manifold and self-colliding undeformed triangle meshes), converting triangle mesh animations into animations of the simulation mesh, and resolving collisions and self-collisions while following the input.

  5. Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used....

  6. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  7. The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

    2013-10-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

  8. A java based simulator with user interface to simulate ventilated patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stehle P.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical ventilation is a life-saving intervention, which despite its use on a routine basis, poses the risk of inflicting further damage to the lung tissue if ventilator settings are chosen inappropriately. Medical decision support systems may help to prevent such injuries while providing the optimal settings to reach a defined clinical goal. In order to develop and verify decision support algorithms, a test bench simulating a patient’s behaviour is needed. We propose a Java based system that allows simulation of respiratory mechanics, gas exchange and cardiovascular dynamics of a mechanically ventilated patient. The implemented models are allowed to interact and are interchangeable enabling the simulation of various clinical scenarios. Model simulations are running in real-time and show physiologically plausible results.

  9. Virtual reality based surgery simulation for endoscopic gynaecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Székely, G; Bajka, M; Brechbühler, C; Dual, J; Enzler, R; Haller, U; Hug, J; Hutter, R; Ironmonger, N; Kauer, M; Meier, V; Niederer, P; Rhomberg, A; Schmid, P; Schweitzer, G; Thaler, M; Vuskovic, V; Tröster, G

    1999-01-01

    Virtual reality (VR) based surgical simulator systems offer very elegant possibilities to both enrich and enhance traditional education in endoscopic surgery. However, while a wide range of VR simulator systems have been proposed and realized in the past few years, most of these systems are far from able to provide a reasonably realistic surgical environment. We explore the basic approaches to the current limits of realism and ultimately seek to extend these based on our description and analysis of the most important components of a VR-based endoscopic simulator. The feasibility of the proposed techniques is demonstrated on a first modular prototype system implementing the basic algorithms for VR-training in gynaecologic laparoscopy.

  10. Performance simulation of a MRPC-based PET imaging system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, A.; Banerjee, A.; Biswas, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Das, G.; Saha, S.

    2014-10-01

    The less expensive and high resolution Multi-gap Resistive Plate Chamber (MRPC) opens up a new possibility to find an efficient alternative detector for the Time of Flight (TOF) based Positron Emission Tomography, where the sensitivity of the system depends largely on the time resolution of the detector. In a layered structure, suitable converters can be used to increase the photon detection efficiency. In this work, we perform a detailed GEANT4 simulation to optimize the converter thickness towards improving the efficiency of photon conversion. A Monte Carlo based procedure has been developed to simulate the time resolution of the MRPC-based system, making it possible to simulate its response for PET imaging application. The results of the test of a six-gap MRPC, operating in avalanche mode, with 22Na source have been discussed.

  11. Streamflow variation of forest covered catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gribovszki, Z.; Kalicz, P.; Kucsara, M.

    2003-04-01

    Rainfall concentration and runoff, otherwise rainfall-runoff processes, which cause river water discharge fluctuation, is one of the basic questions of hydrology. Several social-economy demands have a strong connection with small or bigger rivers from the point of view both quantity and quality of the water. Gratification or consideration of these demands is complicated substantially that we have still poor knowledge about our stream-flow regime. Water resources mainly stem from upper watersheds. These upper watersheds are the basis of the water concentration process; therefore we have to improve our knowledge about hydrological processes coming up in these territories. In this article we present runoff regime of two small catchments on the basis of one year data. Both catchments have a similar magnitude 0.6 and 0.9 km^2. We have been analyzed in detail some hydrological elements: features of rainfall, discharge, rainfall induced flooding waves and basic discharge in rainless periods. Variances of these parameters have been analyzed in relation to catchments surface, vegetation coverage and forest management. Result data set well enforce our knowledge about small catchments hydrological processes. On the basis of these fundamentals we can plan more established the management of these lands (forest practices, civil engineering works, and usage of natural water resources).

  12. Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged, Irrigated Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M.; Thompson, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    The international "predictions in ungauged basins" or "PUB" effort has broadened and improved the tools available to support water resources management in sparsely observed regions. These tools have, however, been primarily focused on regions with limited diversion of surface or shallow groundwater resources. Incorporating anthropogenic activity into PUB methods is essential given the high level of development of many basins. We extended an existing stochastic framework used to predict the flow duration curve to explore the effects of irrigation on streamflow dynamics. Four canonical scenarios were considered in which irrigation water was (i) primarily sourced from water imports, (ii) primarily sourced from direct in-channel diversions, (iii) sourced from shallow groundwater with direct connectivity to stream channels, or (iv) sourced from deep groundwater that is indirectly connected to surface flow via a shallow aquifer. By comparing the predicted flow duration curves to those predicted by accounting for climate and geomorphic factors in isolation, specific "fingerprints" of human water withdrawals could be identified for the different irrigation scenarios, and shown to be sensitive to irrigation volumes and scheduling. The results provide a first insight into PUB methodologies that could be employed in heavily managed basins.

  13. Application of radiotracer methods in streamflow measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dincer, T.

    1967-01-01

    An attempt is made to evaluate methods using radiotracers in streamflow measurements. The basic principles of the tracer method are explained and background information given. Radiotracers used in stream discharge measurements are discussed and measurements made by different research workers are described. Problems such as adsorption of the tracer and the mixing length are discussed and the potential use of the radioisotopes as tracer in the routine stream-gauging work is evaluated. It is concluded that, at the present stage of development, radiotracer methods do not seem to be ready for routine use in stream-gauging work, and can only be used in some special cases. For gamma-emitting radioisotopes there are problems related to safety, transport and injection which should be solved. Tritium, though a very attractive tracer in some respects, has the disadvantages of having a relatively long half-life and of disturbing the natural tritium levels in the region. Finally, an attempt is made to define the objectives of the research in the field of application of radioisotopes in hydrometry. (author)

  14. Development of intelligent interface for simulation execution by module-based simulation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Mizutani, Naoki; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Wakabayashi, Jiro

    1988-01-01

    An intelligent user support for the two phases of simulation execution was newly developed for Module-based Simulation System (MSS). The MSS has been in development as a flexible simulation environment to improve software productivity in complex, large-scale dynamic simulation of nuclear power plant. The AI programing by Smalltalk-80 was applied to materialize the two user-interface programs for (i) semantic diagnosis of the simulation program generated automatically by MSS, and (ii) consultation system by which user can set up consistent numerical input data files necessary for executing a MSS-generated program. Frame theory was utilized in those interface programs to represent the four knowledge bases, which are (i) usage information on module library in MSS and MSS-generated program, and (ii) expertise knowledge on nuclear power plant analysis such as material properties and reactor system configuration. Capabilities of those interface programs were confirmed by some example practice on LMFBR reactor dynamic calculation, and it was demonstrated that the knowledge-based systemization was effective to improve software work environment. (author)

  15. Cost analysis of simulated base-catalyzed biodiesel production processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tasić, Marija B.; Stamenković, Olivera S.; Veljković, Vlada B.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Two semi-continuous biodiesel production processes from sunflower oil are simulated. • Simulations were based on the kinetics of base-catalyzed methanolysis reactions. • The total energy consumption was influenced by the kinetic model. • Heterogeneous base-catalyzed process is a preferable industrial technology. - Abstract: The simulation and economic feasibility evaluation of semi-continuous biodiesel production from sunflower oil were based on the kinetics of homogeneously (Process I) and heterogeneously (Process II) base-catalyzed methanolysis reactions. The annual plant’s capacity was determined to be 8356 tonnes of biodiesel. The total energy consumption was influenced by the unit model describing the methanolysis reaction kinetics. The energy consumption of the Process II was more than 2.5 times lower than that of the Process I. Also, the simulation showed the Process I had more and larger process equipment units, compared with the Process II. Based on lower total capital investment costs and biodiesel selling price, the Process II was economically more feasible than the Process I. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using variable sunflower oil and biodiesel prices. Using a biodiesel selling price of 0.990 $/kg, Processes I and II were shown to be economically profitable if the sunflower oil price was 0.525 $/kg and 0.696 $/kg, respectively

  16. Research of Simulation in Character Animation Based on Physics Engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Computer 3D character animation essentially is a product, which is combined with computer graphics and robotics, physics, mathematics, and the arts. It is based on computer hardware and graphics algorithms and related sciences rapidly developed new technologies. At present, the mainstream character animation technology is based on the artificial production of key technologies and capture frames based on the motion capture device technology. 3D character animation is widely used not only in the production of film, animation, and other commercial areas but also in virtual reality, computer-aided education, flight simulation, engineering simulation, military simulation, and other fields. In this paper, we try to study physics based character animation to solve these problems such as poor real-time interaction that appears in the character, low utilization rate, and complex production. The paper deeply studied the kinematics, dynamics technology, and production technology based on the motion data. At the same time, it analyzed ODE, PhysX, Bullet, and other variety of mainstream physics engines and studied OBB hierarchy bounding box tree, AABB hierarchical tree, and other collision detection algorithms. Finally, character animation based on ODE is implemented, which is simulation of the motion and collision process of a tricycle.

  17. Optimization Model for Web Based Multimodal Interactive Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halic, Tansel; Ahn, Woojin; De, Suvranu

    2015-07-15

    This paper presents a technique for optimizing the performance of web based multimodal interactive simulations. For such applications where visual quality and the performance of simulations directly influence user experience, overloading of hardware resources may result in unsatisfactory reduction in the quality of the simulation and user satisfaction. However, optimization of simulation performance on individual hardware platforms is not practical. Hence, we present a mixed integer programming model to optimize the performance of graphical rendering and simulation performance while satisfying application specific constraints. Our approach includes three distinct phases: identification, optimization and update . In the identification phase, the computing and rendering capabilities of the client device are evaluated using an exploratory proxy code. This data is utilized in conjunction with user specified design requirements in the optimization phase to ensure best possible computational resource allocation. The optimum solution is used for rendering (e.g. texture size, canvas resolution) and simulation parameters (e.g. simulation domain) in the update phase. Test results are presented on multiple hardware platforms with diverse computing and graphics capabilities to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

  18. Knowledge Based Cloud FE Simulation of Sheet Metal Forming Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Du; Yuan, Xi; Gao, Haoxiang; Wang, Ailing; Liu, Jun; El Fakir, Omer; Politis, Denis J; Wang, Liliang; Lin, Jianguo

    2016-12-13

    The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions.

  19. The transesophageal echocardiography simulator based on computed tomography images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piórkowski, Adam; Kempny, Aleksander

    2013-02-01

    Simulators are a new tool in education in many fields, including medicine, where they greatly improve familiarity with medical procedures, reduce costs, and, importantly, cause no harm to patients. This is so in the case of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), in which the use of a simulator facilitates spatial orientation and helps in case studies. The aim of the project described in this paper is to simulate an examination by TEE. This research makes use of available computed tomography data to simulate the corresponding echocardiographic view. This paper describes the essential characteristics that distinguish these two modalities and the key principles of the wave phenomena that should be considered in the simulation process, taking into account the conditions specific to the echocardiography. The construction of the CT2TEE (Web-based TEE simulator) is also presented. The considerations include ray-tracing and ray-casting techniques in the context of ultrasound beam and artifact simulation. An important aspect of the interaction with the user is raised.

  20. [Simulation-based robot-assisted surgical training].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolontarev, K B; Govorov, A V; Rasner, P I; Sheptunov, S A; Prilepskaya, E A; Maltsev, E G; Pushkar, D Yu

    2015-12-01

    Since the first use of robotic surgical system in 2000, the robot-assisted technology has gained wide popularity throughout the world. Robot-assisted surgical training is a complex issue that requires significant efforts from students and teacher. During the last two decades, simulation-based training had received active development due to wide-spread occurrence and popularization of laparoscopic and robot-assisted surgical techniques. We performed a systematic review to identify the currently available simulators for robot-assisted surgery. We searched the Medline and Pubmed, English sources of literature data, using the following key words and phrases: "robotics", "robotic surgery", "computer assisted surgery", "simulation", "computer simulation", "virtual reality", "surgical training", and "surgical education". There were identified 565 publications, which meet the key words and phrases; 19 publications were selected for the final analysis. It was established that simulation-based training is the most promising teaching tool that can be used in the training of the next generation robotic surgeons. Today the use of simulators to train surgeons is validated. Price of devices is an obvious barrier for inclusion in the program for training of robotic surgeons, but the lack of this tool will result in a sharp increase in the duration of specialists training.

  1. Modelling and simulation-based acquisition decision support: present & future

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, S

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 24551 Content-Encoding UTF-8 stream_name Naidoo1_2009.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 1 Modelling & Simulation...-Based Acquisition Decision Support: Present & Future Shahen Naidoo Abstract The Ground Based Air Defence System (GBADS) Programme, of the South African Army has been applying modelling and simulation (M&S) to provide acquisition decision and doctrine...

  2. Medical simulation-based education improves medicos' clinical skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhaoming; Liu, Qiaoyu; Wang, Hai

    2013-03-01

    Clinical skill is an essential part of clinical medicine and plays quite an important role in bridging medicos and physicians. Due to the realities in China, traditional medical education is facing many challenges. There are few opportunities for students to practice their clinical skills and their dexterities are generally at a low level. Medical simulation-based education is a new teaching modality and helps to improve medicos' clinical skills to a large degree. Medical simulation-based education has many significant advantages and will be further developed and applied.

  3. An investigation of the role of winter and spring precipitation as drivers of streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters using tree-ring reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick, S. E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Martin, J. T.; Pederson, G. T.

    2017-12-01

    The Missouri River supplies water to over 3 million basin residents and is a driving force for the nation's agricultural and energy sectors. However, with changing climate and declining snowpack in western North America, seasonal water yields are becoming less predictable, revealing a gap in our understanding of regional hydroclimate and drivers of streamflow within the basin. By analyzing the relationship between seasonal precipitation and streamflow in the Missouri River Headwaters sub-basin, this study seeks to expand our knowledge based on the instrumental record alone. Here we present the first annually-resolved tree-ring reconstruction of spring precipitation for the Missouri River Headwaters. This reconstruction along with existing tree-ring reconstructions of April 1 snow-water equivalence (SWE) (Pederson et al. 2011) and natural streamflow (Martin, J.T. & Pederson, G.T., personal communication, June 2017) are used to test the feasibility of detecting a variable influence of winter and spring precipitation on streamflow over past centuries, and relative to the modern period. Initial analyses indicate that April 1 SWE is a significant control on streamflow, however, the April 1 SWE record does not fully account for anomalies observed in the streamflow record. This study therefore seeks to determine whether spring precipitation can account for some of this asynchronous variability observed between the April 1 SWE and streamflow records. Aside from improved understanding of the relationship between hydroclimate and streamflow in the headwaters of the Missouri River, our findings offer insights relating to changing contributions from snowmelt and spring precipitation, and long-term hydrologic variability and trends relevant to water resource management and planning efforts.

  4. A particle-based method for granular flow simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Chang, Yuanzhang; Bao, Kai; Zhu, Jian; Wu, Enhua

    2012-01-01

    We present a new particle-based method for granular flow simulation. In the method, a new elastic stress term, which is derived from a modified form of the Hooke's law, is included in the momentum governing equation to handle the friction of granular materials. Viscosity force is also added to simulate the dynamic friction for the purpose of smoothing the velocity field and further maintaining the simulation stability. Benefiting from the Lagrangian nature of the SPH method, large flow deformation can be well handled easily and naturally. In addition, a signed distance field is also employed to enforce the solid boundary condition. The experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient for handling the flow of granular materials, and different kinds of granular behaviors can be well simulated by adjusting just one parameter. © 2012 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  5. Engineering uses of physics-based ground motion simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jack W.; Luco, Nicolas; Abrahamson, Norman A.; Graves, Robert W.; Maechling, Phillip J.; Olsen, Kim B.

    2014-01-01

    This paper summarizes validation methodologies focused on enabling ground motion simulations to be used with confidence in engineering applications such as seismic hazard analysis and dynmaic analysis of structural and geotechnical systems. Numberical simullation of ground motion from large erthquakes, utilizing physics-based models of earthquake rupture and wave propagation, is an area of active research in the earth science community. Refinement and validatoin of these models require collaboration between earthquake scientists and engineering users, and testing/rating methodolgies for simulated ground motions to be used with confidence in engineering applications. This paper provides an introduction to this field and an overview of current research activities being coordinated by the Souther California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These activities are related both to advancing the science and computational infrastructure needed to produce ground motion simulations, as well as to engineering validation procedures. Current research areas and anticipated future achievements are also discussed.

  6. A particle-based method for granular flow simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Chang, Yuanzhang

    2012-03-16

    We present a new particle-based method for granular flow simulation. In the method, a new elastic stress term, which is derived from a modified form of the Hooke\\'s law, is included in the momentum governing equation to handle the friction of granular materials. Viscosity force is also added to simulate the dynamic friction for the purpose of smoothing the velocity field and further maintaining the simulation stability. Benefiting from the Lagrangian nature of the SPH method, large flow deformation can be well handled easily and naturally. In addition, a signed distance field is also employed to enforce the solid boundary condition. The experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient for handling the flow of granular materials, and different kinds of granular behaviors can be well simulated by adjusting just one parameter. © 2012 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  7. Simulation-based MDP verification for leading-edge masks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Bo; Syrel, Oleg; Pomerantsev, Michael; Hagiwara, Kazuyuki; Pearman, Ryan; Pang, Leo; Fujimara, Aki

    2017-07-01

    For IC design starts below the 20nm technology node, the assist features on photomasks shrink well below 60nm and the printed patterns of those features on masks written by VSB eBeam writers start to show a large deviation from the mask designs. Traditional geometry-based fracturing starts to show large errors for those small features. As a result, other mask data preparation (MDP) methods have become available and adopted, such as rule-based Mask Process Correction (MPC), model-based MPC and eventually model-based MDP. The new MDP methods may place shot edges slightly differently from target to compensate for mask process effects, so that the final patterns on a mask are much closer to the design (which can be viewed as the ideal mask), especially for those assist features. Such an alteration generally produces better masks that are closer to the intended mask design. Traditional XOR-based MDP verification cannot detect problems caused by eBeam effects. Much like model-based OPC verification which became a necessity for OPC a decade ago, we see the same trend in MDP today. Simulation-based MDP verification solution requires a GPU-accelerated computational geometry engine with simulation capabilities. To have a meaningful simulation-based mask check, a good mask process model is needed. The TrueModel® system is a field tested physical mask model developed by D2S. The GPU-accelerated D2S Computational Design Platform (CDP) is used to run simulation-based mask check, as well as model-based MDP. In addition to simulation-based checks such as mask EPE or dose margin, geometry-based rules are also available to detect quality issues such as slivers or CD splits. Dose margin related hotspots can also be detected by setting a correct detection threshold. In this paper, we will demonstrate GPU-acceleration for geometry processing, and give examples of mask check results and performance data. GPU-acceleration is necessary to make simulation-based mask MDP verification

  8. Remote collaboration system based on large scale simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kishimoto, Yasuaki; Sugahara, Akihiro; Li, J.Q.

    2008-01-01

    Large scale simulation using super-computer, which generally requires long CPU time and produces large amount of data, has been extensively studied as a third pillar in various advanced science fields in parallel to theory and experiment. Such a simulation is expected to lead new scientific discoveries through elucidation of various complex phenomena, which are hardly identified only by conventional theoretical and experimental approaches. In order to assist such large simulation studies for which many collaborators working at geographically different places participate and contribute, we have developed a unique remote collaboration system, referred to as SIMON (simulation monitoring system), which is based on client-server system control introducing an idea of up-date processing, contrary to that of widely used post-processing. As a key ingredient, we have developed a trigger method, which transmits various requests for the up-date processing from the simulation (client) running on a super-computer to a workstation (server). Namely, the simulation running on a super-computer actively controls the timing of up-date processing. The server that has received the requests from the ongoing simulation such as data transfer, data analyses, and visualizations, etc. starts operations according to the requests during the simulation. The server makes the latest results available to web browsers, so that the collaborators can monitor the results at any place and time in the world. By applying the system to a specific simulation project of laser-matter interaction, we have confirmed that the system works well and plays an important role as a collaboration platform on which many collaborators work with one another

  9. Simulation based virtual learning environment in medical genetics counseling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Makransky, Guido; Bonde, Mads T.; Wulff, Julie S. G.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Simulation based learning environments are designed to improve the quality of medical education by allowing students to interact with patients, diagnostic laboratory procedures, and patient data in a virtual environment. However, few studies have evaluated whether simulation based...... the perceived relevance of medical educational activities. The results suggest that simulations can help future generations of doctors transfer new understanding of disease mechanisms gained in virtual laboratory settings into everyday clinical practice....... learning environments increase students' knowledge, intrinsic motivation, and self-efficacy, and help them generalize from laboratory analyses to clinical practice and health decision-making. METHODS: An entire class of 300 University of Copenhagen first-year undergraduate students, most with a major...

  10. Simulation-based medical education: time for a pedagogical shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalaniti, Kaarthigeyan; Campbell, Douglas M

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of medical education at all levels is to prepare physicians with the knowledge and comprehensive skills, required to deliver safe and effective patient care. The traditional 'apprentice' learning model in medical education is undergoing a pedagogical shift to a 'simulation-based' learning model. Experiential learning, deliberate practice and the ability to provide immediate feedback are the primary advantages of simulation-based medical education. It is an effective way to develop new skills, identify knowledge gaps, reduce medical errors, and maintain infrequently used clinical skills even among experienced clinical teams, with the overall goal of improving patient care. Although simulation cannot replace clinical exposure as a form of experiential learning, it promotes learning without compromising patient safety. This new paradigm shift is revolutionizing medical education in the Western world. It is time that the developing countries embrace this new pedagogical shift.

  11. Comparison of GPU-Based Numerous Particles Simulation and Experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sang Wook; Jun, Chul Woong; Sohn, Jeong Hyun; Lee, Jae Wook

    2014-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of numerous grains interacting with each other can be easily observed. In this study, this dynamic behavior was analyzed based on the contact between numerous grains. The discrete element method was used for analyzing the dynamic behavior of each particle and the neighboring-cell algorithm was employed for detecting their contact. The Hertzian and tangential sliding friction contact models were used for calculating the contact force acting between the particles. A GPU-based parallel program was developed for conducting the computer simulation and calculating the numerous contacts. The dam break experiment was performed to verify the simulation results. The reliability of the program was verified by comparing the results of the simulation with those of the experiment

  12. Simulation Based Data Reconciliation for Monitoring Power Plant Efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sang Jun; Heo, Gyun Young

    2010-01-01

    Power plant efficiency is analyzed by using measured values, mass/energy balance principles, and several correlations. Since the measured values can have uncertainty depending on the accuracy of instrumentation, the results of plant efficiency should definitely have uncertainty. The certainty may occur due to either the randomness or the malfunctions of a process. In order to improve the accuracy of efficiency analysis, the data reconciliation (DR) is expected as a good candidate because the mathematical algorithm of the DR is based on the first principles such as mass and energy balance considering the uncertainty of instrumentation. It should be noted that the mass and energy balance model for analyzing power plant efficiency is equivalent to a steady-state simulation of a plant system. Therefore the DR for efficiency analysis necessitates the simulation which can deal with the uncertainty of instrumentation. This study will propose the algorithm of the simulation based DR which is applicable to power plant efficiency monitoring

  13. Engineering-Based Thermal CFD Simulations on Massive Parallel Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Frisch, Jérôme

    2015-05-22

    The development of parallel Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes is a challenging task that entails efficient parallelization concepts and strategies in order to achieve good scalability values when running those codes on modern supercomputers with several thousands to millions of cores. In this paper, we present a hierarchical data structure for massive parallel computations that supports the coupling of a Navier–Stokes-based fluid flow code with the Boussinesq approximation in order to address complex thermal scenarios for energy-related assessments. The newly designed data structure is specifically designed with the idea of interactive data exploration and visualization during runtime of the simulation code; a major shortcoming of traditional high-performance computing (HPC) simulation codes. We further show and discuss speed-up values obtained on one of Germany’s top-ranked supercomputers with up to 140,000 processes and present simulation results for different engineering-based thermal problems.

  14. Improved Assimilation of Streamflow and Satellite Soil Moisture with the Evolutionary Particle Filter and Geostatistical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Abbaszadeh, Peyman

    2017-04-01

    Assimilation of satellite soil moisture and streamflow data into hydrologic models using has received increasing attention over the past few years. Currently, these observations are increasingly used to improve the model streamflow and soil moisture predictions. However, the performance of this land data assimilation (DA) system still suffers from two limitations: 1) satellite data scarcity and quality; and 2) particle weight degeneration. In order to overcome these two limitations, we propose two possible solutions in this study. First, the general Gaussian geostatistical approach is proposed to overcome the limitation in the space/time resolution of satellite soil moisture products thus improving their accuracy at uncovered/biased grid cells. Secondly, an evolutionary PF approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the so-called EPF-MCMC, is developed to further reduce weight degeneration and improve the robustness of the land DA system. This study provides a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and satellite soil moisture into a distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, with the use of recently developed EPF-MCMC and the general Gaussian geostatistical approach. Performance is assessed over several basins in the USA selected from Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and located in different climate regions. The results indicate that: 1) the general Gaussian approach can predict the soil moisture at uncovered grid cells within the expected satellite data quality threshold; 2) assimilation of satellite soil moisture inferred from the general Gaussian model can significantly improve the soil moisture predictions; and 3) in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic measures, the EPF-MCMC can achieve better streamflow predictions. These results recommend that the geostatistical model is a helpful tool to aid the remote sensing technique and the EPF-MCMC is a

  15. Seasonal streamflow prediction by a combined climate-hydrologic system for river basins of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Yu, Pao-Shan

    2010-06-01

    SummaryA combined, climate-hydrologic system with three components to predict the streamflow of two river basins of Taiwan at one season (3-month) lead time for the NDJ and JFM seasons was developed. The first component consists of the wavelet-based, ANN-GA model (Artificial Neural Network calibrated by Genetic Algorithm) which predicts the seasonal rainfall by using selected sea surface temperature (SST) as predictors, given that SST are generally predictable by climate models up to 6-month lead time. For the second component, three disaggregation models, Valencia and Schaake (VS), Lane, and Canonical Random Cascade Model (CRCM), were tested to compare the accuracy of seasonal rainfall disaggregated by these three models to 3-day time scale rainfall data. The third component consists of the continuous rainfall-runoff model modified from HBV (called the MHBV) and calibrated by a global optimization algorithm against the observed rainfall and streamflow data of the Shihmen and Tsengwen river basins of Taiwan. The proposed system was tested, first by disaggregating the predicted seasonal rainfall of ANN-GA to rainfall of 3-day time step using the Lane model; then the disaggregated rainfall data was used to drive the calibrated MHBV to predict the streamflow for both river basins at 3-day time step up to a season's lead time. Overall, the streamflow predicted by this combined system for the NDJ season, which is better than that of the JFM season, will be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resources of these two river basins of Taiwan.

  16. Retrospective evaluation of continental-scale streamflow nudging with WRF-Hydro National Water Model V1

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreight, J. L.; Wu, Y.; Gochis, D.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.; Cosgrove, B.; Cui, Z.; Oubeidillah, A.; Briar, D.

    2016-12-01

    The streamflow (discharge) data assimilation capability in version 1 of the National Water Model (NWM; a WRF-Hydro configuration) is applied and evaluated in a 5-year (2011-2015) retrospective study using NLDAS2 forcing data over CONUS. This talk will describe the NWM V1 operational nudging (continuous-time) streamflow data assimilation approach, its motivation, and its relationship to this retrospective evaluation. Results from this study will provide a an analysis-based (not forecast-based) benchmark for streamflow DA in the NWM. The goal of the assimilation is to reduce discharge bias and improve channel initial conditions for discharge forecasting (though forecasts are not considered here). The nudging method assimilates discharge observations at nearly 7,000 USGS gages (at frequency up to 1/15 minutes) to produce a (univariate) discharge reanalysis (i.e. this is the only variable affected by the assimilation). By withholding 14% nested gages throughout CONUS in a separate validation run, we evaluate the downstream impact of assimilation at upstream gages. Based on this sample, we estimate the skill of the streamflow reanalysis at ungaged locations and examine factors governing the skill of the assimilation. Comparison of assimilation and open-loop runs is presented. Performance of DA under both high and low flow regimes and selected flooding events is examined. Preliminary evaluation of nudging parameter sensitivity and its relationship to flow regime will be presented.

  17. Streamflow characteristics and benthic invertebrate assemblages in streams across the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasher, Anne M.D.; Konrad, Chris P.; May, Jason T.; Edmiston, C. Scott; Close, Rebecca N.

    2010-01-01

    Hydrographic characteristics of streamflow, such as high-flow pulses, base flow (background discharge between floods), extreme low flows, and floods, significantly influence aquatic organisms. Streamflow can be described in terms of magnitude, timing, duration, frequency, and variation (hydrologic regime). These characteristics have broad effects on ecosystem productivity, habitat structure, and ultimately on resident fish, invertebrate, and algae communities. Increasing human use of limited water resources has modified hydrologic regimes worldwide. Identifying the most ecologically significant hydrographic characteristics would facilitate the development of water-management strategies.Benthic invertebrates include insects, mollusks (snails and clams), worms, and crustaceans (shrimp) that live on the streambed. Invertebrates play an important role in the food web, consuming other invertebrates and algae and being consumed by fish and birds. Hydrologic alteration associated with land and water use can change the natural hydrologic regime and may affect benthic invertebrate assemblage composition and structure through changes in density of invertebrates or taxa richness (number of different species).This study examined associations between the hydrologic regime and characteristics of benthic invertebrate assemblages across the western United States and developed tools to identify streamflow characteristics that are likely to affect benthic invertebrate assemblages.

  18. A review of methods for monitoring streamflow for sustainable water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobriyal, Pariva; Badola, Ruchi; Tuboi, Chongpi; Hussain, Syed Ainul

    2017-10-01

    Monitoring of streamflow may help to determine the optimum levels of its use for sustainable water management in the face of climate change. We reviewed available methods for monitoring streamflow on the basis of six criteria viz. their applicability across different terrains and size of the streams, operational ease, time effectiveness, accuracy, environmental impact that they may cause and cost involve in it. On the basis of the strengths and weaknesses of each of the methods reviewed, we conclude that the timed volume method is apt for hilly terrain having smaller streams due to its operational ease and accuracy of results. Although comparatively expensive, the weir and flume methods are suitable for long term studies of small hill streams, since once the structure is put in place, it yields accurate results. In flat terrain, the float method is best suited for smaller streams for its operational ease and cost effectiveness, whereas, for larger streams, the particle image velocimetry may be used for its accuracy. Our review suggests that the selection of a method for monitoring streamflow may be based on volume of the stream, accuracy of the method, accessibility of the terrain and financial and physical resources available.

  19. Digital Simulation-Based Training: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gegenfurtner, Andreas; Quesada-Pallarès, Carla; Knogler, Maximilian

    2014-01-01

    This study examines how design characteristics in digital simulation-based learning environments moderate self-efficacy and transfer of learning. Drawing on social cognitive theory and the cognitive theory of multimedia learning, the meta-analysis psychometrically cumulated k?=?15 studies of 25 years of research with a total sample size of…

  20. Event-based Simulation Model for Quantum Optics Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Raedt, H.; Michielsen, K.; Jaeger, G; Khrennikov, A; Schlosshauer, M; Weihs, G

    2011-01-01

    We present a corpuscular simulation model of optical phenomena that does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation of the whole system and reproduces the results of Maxwell's theory by generating detection events one-by-one. The event-based corpuscular model gives a unified

  1. Porting a Java-based Brain Simulation Software to C++

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    A currently available software solution to simulate neural development is Cx3D. However, this software is Java-based, and not ideal for high performance computing. This talk presents our step-by-step porting approach, that uses SWIG as a tool to interface C++ code from Java.

  2. gemcWeb: A Cloud Based Nuclear Physics Simulation Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markelon, Sam

    2017-09-01

    gemcWeb allows users to run nuclear physics simulations from the web. Being completely device agnostic, scientists can run simulations from anywhere with an Internet connection. Having a full user system, gemcWeb allows users to revisit and revise their projects, and share configurations and results with collaborators. gemcWeb is based on simulation software gemc, which is based on standard GEant4. gemcWeb requires no C++, gemc, or GEant4 knowledge. Using a simple but powerful GUI allows users to configure their project from geometries and configurations stored on the deployment server. Simulations are then run on the server, with results being posted to the user, and then securely stored. Python based and open-source, the main version of gemcWeb is hosted internally at Jefferson National Labratory and used by the CLAS12 and Electron-Ion Collider Project groups. However, as the software is open-source, and hosted as a GitHub repository, an instance can be deployed on the open web, or any institution's intra-net. An instance can be configured to host experiments specific to an institution, and the code base can be modified by any individual or group. Special thanks to: Maurizio Ungaro, PhD., creator of gemc; Markus Diefenthaler, PhD., advisor; and Kyungseon Joo, PhD., advisor.

  3. Simulating an elastic bipedal robot based on musculoskeletal modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bortoletto, Roberto; Sartori, Massimo; He, Fuben; Pagello, Enrico

    2012-01-01

    Many of the processes involved into the synthesis of human motion have much in common with problems found in robotics research. This paper describes the modeling and the simulation of a novel bipedal robot based on series elastic actuators [1]. The robot model takes in- spiration from the human

  4. Cost Effective Community Based Dementia Screening: A Markov Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Saito

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Given the dementia epidemic and the increasing cost of healthcare, there is a need to assess the economic benefit of community based dementia screening programs. Materials and Methods. Markov model simulations were generated using data obtained from a community based dementia screening program over a one-year period. The models simulated yearly costs of caring for patients based on clinical transitions beginning in pre dementia and extending for 10 years. Results. A total of 93 individuals (74 female, 19 male were screened for dementia and 12 meeting clinical criteria for either mild cognitive impairment (n=7 or dementia (n=5 were identified. Assuming early therapeutic intervention beginning during the year of dementia detection, Markov model simulations demonstrated 9.8% reduction in cost of dementia care over a ten-year simulation period, primarily through increased duration in mild stages and reduced time in more costly moderate and severe stages. Discussion. Community based dementia screening can reduce healthcare costs associated with caring for demented individuals through earlier detection and treatment, resulting in proportionately reduced time in more costly advanced stages.

  5. Design Heuristics for Authentic Simulation-Based Learning Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ney, Muriel; Gonçalves, Celso; Balacheff, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Simulation games are games for learning based on a reference in the real world. We propose a model for authenticity in this context as a result of a compromise among learning, playing and realism. In the health game used to apply this model, students interact with characters in the game through phone messages, mail messages, SMS and video.…

  6. Identifying content for simulation-based curricula in urology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nayahangan, Leizl Joy; Hansen, Rikke Bolling; Lindorff-Larsen, Karen Gilboe

    2017-01-01

    to identify technical procedures in urology that should be included in a simulation-based curriculum for residency training. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A national needs assessment was performed using the Delphi method involving 56 experts with significant roles in the education of urologists. Round 1 identified...

  7. The afforestation problem: a heuristic method based on simulated annealing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the afforestation problem, that is the location and design of new forest compartments to be planted in a given area. This optimization problem is solved by a two-step heuristic method based on simulated annealing. Tests and experiences with this method are also presented....

  8. Solution of partial differential equations by agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, Miklos N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this short note is to demonstrate that partial differential equations can be quickly solved by agent-based simulation with high accuracy. There is no need for the solution of large systems of algebraic equations. This method is especially useful for quick determination of potential distributions and demonstration purposes in teaching electromagnetism. (letters and comments)

  9. Toward Developing Authentic Leadership: Team-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira-Lishchinsky, Orly

    2014-01-01

    Although there is a consensus that authentic leadership should be an essential component in educational leadership, no study to date has ever tried to find whether team-based simulations may promote authentic leadership. The purpose of this study was to identify whether principal trainees can develop authentic leadership through ethical decision…

  10. Students' Emotions in Simulation-Based Medical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keskitalo, Tuulikki; Ruokamo, Heli

    2017-01-01

    Medical education is emotionally charged for many reasons, especially the fact that simulation-based learning is designed to generate emotional experiences. However, there are very few studies that concentrate on learning and emotions, despite widespread interest in the topic, especially within healthcare education. The aim of this research is to…

  11. Fast spot-based multiscale simulations of granular drainage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rycroft, Chris H.; Wong, Yee Lok; Bazant, Martin Z.

    2009-05-22

    We develop a multiscale simulation method for dense granular drainage, based on the recently proposed spot model, where the particle packing flows by local collective displacements in response to diffusing"spots'" of interstitial free volume. By comparing with discrete-element method (DEM) simulations of 55,000 spheres in a rectangular silo, we show that the spot simulation is able to approximately capture many features of drainage, such as packing statistics, particle mixing, and flow profiles. The spot simulation runs two to three orders of magnitude faster than DEM, making it an appropriate method for real-time control or optimization. We demonstrateextensions for modeling particle heaping and avalanching at the free surface, and for simulating the boundary layers of slower flow near walls. We show that the spot simulations are robust and flexible, by demonstrating that they can be used in both event-driven and fixed timestep approaches, and showing that the elastic relaxation step used in the model can be applied much less frequently and still create good results.

  12. An electromechanical based deformable model for soft tissue simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yongmin; Shirinzadeh, Bijan; Smith, Julian; Gu, Chengfan

    2009-11-01

    Soft tissue deformation is of great importance to surgery simulation. Although a significant amount of research efforts have been dedicated to simulating the behaviours of soft tissues, modelling of soft tissue deformation is still a challenging problem. This paper presents a new deformable model for simulation of soft tissue deformation from the electromechanical viewpoint of soft tissues. Soft tissue deformation is formulated as a reaction-diffusion process coupled with a mechanical load. The mechanical load applied to a soft tissue to cause a deformation is incorporated into the reaction-diffusion system, and consequently distributed among mass points of the soft tissue. Reaction-diffusion of mechanical load and non-rigid mechanics of motion are combined to govern the simulation dynamics of soft tissue deformation. An improved reaction-diffusion model is developed to describe the distribution of the mechanical load in soft tissues. A three-layer artificial cellular neural network is constructed to solve the reaction-diffusion model for real-time simulation of soft tissue deformation. A gradient based method is established to derive internal forces from the distribution of the mechanical load. Integration with a haptic device has also been achieved to simulate soft tissue deformation with haptic feedback. The proposed methodology does not only predict the typical behaviours of living tissues, but it also accepts both local and large-range deformations. It also accommodates isotropic, anisotropic and inhomogeneous deformations by simple modification of diffusion coefficients.

  13. Simulation-based medical education in clinical skills laboratory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akaike, Masashi; Fukutomi, Miki; Nagamune, Masami; Fujimoto, Akiko; Tsuji, Akiko; Ishida, Kazuko; Iwata, Takashi

    2012-01-01

    Clinical skills laboratories have been established in medical institutions as facilities for simulation-based medical education (SBME). SBME is believed to be superior to the traditional style of medical education from the viewpoint of the active and adult learning theories. SBME can provide a learning cycle of debriefing and feedback for learners as well as evaluation of procedures and competency. SBME offers both learners and patients a safe environment for practice and error. In a full-environment simulation, learners can obtain not only technical skills but also non-technical skills, such as leadership, team work, communication, situation awareness, decision-making, and awareness of personal limitations. SBME is also effective for integration of clinical medicine and basic medicine. In addition, technology-enhanced simulation training is associated with beneficial effects for outcomes of knowledge, skills, behaviors, and patient-related outcomes. To perform SBME, effectively, not only simulators including high-fidelity mannequin-type simulators or virtual-reality simulators but also full-time faculties and instructors as professionals of SBME are essential in a clinical skills laboratory for SBME. Clinical skills laboratory is expected to become an integrated medical education center to achieve continuing professional development, integrated learning of basic and clinical medicine, and citizens' participation and cooperation in medical education.

  14. Dynamic Garment Simulation based on Hybrid Bounding Volume Hierarchy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Dongyong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to solve the computing speed and efficiency problem of existing dynamic clothing simulation, this paper presents a dynamic garment simulation based on a hybrid bounding volume hierarchy. It firstly uses MCASG graph theory to do the primary segmentation for a given three-dimensional human body model. And then it applies K-means cluster to do the secondary segmentation to collect the human body’s upper arms, lower arms, upper legs, lower legs, trunk, hip and woman’s chest as the elementary units of dynamic clothing simulation. According to different shapes of these elementary units, it chooses the closest and most efficient hybrid bounding box to specify these units, such as cylinder bounding box and elliptic cylinder bounding box. During the process of constructing these bounding boxes, it uses the least squares method and slices of the human body to get the related parameters. This approach makes it possible to use the least amount of bounding boxes to create close collision detection regions for the appearance of the human body. A spring-mass model based on a triangular mesh of the clothing model is finally constructed for dynamic simulation. The simulation result shows the feasibility and superiority of the method described.

  15. Team play in surgical education: a simulation-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marr, Mollie; Hemmert, Keith; Nguyen, Andrew H; Combs, Ronnie; Annamalai, Alagappan; Miller, George; Pachter, H Leon; Turner, James; Rifkind, Kenneth; Cohen, Steven M

    2012-01-01

    Simulation-based training provides a low-stress learning environment where real-life emergencies can be practiced. Simulation can improve surgical education and patient care in crisis situations through a team approach emphasizing interpersonal and communication skills. This study assessed the effects of simulation-based training in the context of trauma resuscitation in teams of trainees. In a New York State-certified level I trauma center, trauma alerts were assessed by a standardized video review process. Simulation training was provided in various trauma situations followed by a debriefing period. The outcomes measured included the number of healthcare workers involved in the resuscitation, the percentage of healthcare workers in role position, time to intubation, time to intubation from paralysis, time to obtain first imaging study, time to leave trauma bay for computed tomography scan or the operating room, presence of team leader, and presence of spinal stabilization. Thirty cases were video analyzed presimulation and postsimulation training. The two data sets were compared via a 1-sided t test for significance (p role positions increased from 57.8% to 83.6% (p = 0.46). The time to intubation from paralysis decreased from 3.9 to 2.8 minutes (p team leader increased from 64% to 90% (p team interaction and educational competencies. Providing simulation training as a tool for surgical education may enhance patient care. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Current concepts in simulation-based trauma education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Robert A; Ali, Jameel

    2008-11-01

    The use of simulation-based technology in trauma education has focused on providing a safe and effective alternative to the more traditional methods that are used to teach technical skills and critical concepts in trauma resuscitation. Trauma team training using simulation-based technology is also being used to develop skills in leadership, team-information sharing, communication, and decision-making. The integration of simulators into medical student curriculum, residency training, and continuing medical education has been strongly recommended by the American College of Surgeons as an innovative means of enhancing patient safety, reducing medical errors, and performing a systematic evaluation of various competencies. Advanced human patient simulators are increasingly being used in trauma as an evaluation tool to assess clinical performance and to teach and reinforce essential knowledge, skills, and abilities. A number of specialty simulators in trauma and critical care have also been designed to meet these educational objectives. Ongoing educational research is still needed to validate long-term retention of knowledge and skills, provide reliable methods to evaluate teaching effectiveness and performance, and to demonstrate improvement in patient safety and overall quality of care.

  17. An FPGA-Based Massively Parallel Neuromorphic Cortex Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Runchun M. Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a massively parallel and scalable neuromorphic cortex simulator designed for simulating large and structurally connected spiking neural networks, such as complex models of various areas of the cortex. The main novelty of this work is the abstraction of a neuromorphic architecture into clusters represented by minicolumns and hypercolumns, analogously to the fundamental structural units observed in neurobiology. Without this approach, simulating large-scale fully connected networks needs prohibitively large memory to store look-up tables for point-to-point connections. Instead, we use a novel architecture, based on the structural connectivity in the neocortex, such that all the required parameters and connections can be stored in on-chip memory. The cortex simulator can be easily reconfigured for simulating different neural networks without any change in hardware structure by programming the memory. A hierarchical communication scheme allows one neuron to have a fan-out of up to 200 k neurons. As a proof-of-concept, an implementation on one Altera Stratix V FPGA was able to simulate 20 million to 2.6 billion leaky-integrate-and-fire (LIF neurons in real time. We verified the system by emulating a simplified auditory cortex (with 100 million neurons. This cortex simulator achieved a low power dissipation of 1.62 μW per neuron. With the advent of commercially available FPGA boards, our system offers an accessible and scalable tool for the design, real-time simulation, and analysis of large-scale spiking neural networks.

  18. Nucleonica. Web-based software tools for simulation and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magill, J.; Dreher, R.; Soti, Z.

    2014-01-01

    The authors present a description of the Nucleonica web-based portal for simulation and analysis for a wide range of commonly encountered nuclear science applications. Advantages of a web-based approach include availability wherever there is internet access, intuitive user-friendly interface, remote access to high-power computing resources, and continual maintenance, improvement, and addition of tools and techniques common to the nuclear science industry. A description of the nuclear data resources, and some applications is given.

  19. Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

    2017-07-17

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized

  20. Statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eash, David A.; O'Shea, Padraic S.; Weber, Jared R.; Nguyen, Kevin T.; Montgomery, Nicholas L.; Simonson, Adrian J.

    2016-01-04

    Statistical summaries of streamflow data collected at 184 streamgages in Iowa are presented in this report. All streamgages included for analysis have at least 10 years of continuous record collected before or through September 2013. This report is an update to two previously published reports that presented statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 1988 and September 1996. The statistical summaries include (1) monthly and annual flow durations, (2) annual exceedance probabilities of instantaneous peak discharges (flood frequencies), (3) annual exceedance probabilities of high discharges, and (4) annual nonexceedance probabilities of low discharges and seasonal low discharges. Also presented for each streamgage are graphs of the annual mean discharges, mean annual mean discharges, 50-percent annual flow-duration discharges (median flows), harmonic mean flows, mean daily mean discharges, and flow-duration curves. Two sets of statistical summaries are presented for each streamgage, which include (1) long-term statistics for the entire period of streamflow record and (2) recent-term statistics for or during the 30-year period of record from 1984 to 2013. The recent-term statistics are only calculated for streamgages with streamflow records pre-dating the 1984 water year and with at least 10 years of record during 1984–2013. The streamflow statistics in this report are not adjusted for the effects of water use; although some of this water is used consumptively, most of it is returned to the streams.

  1. Development of an Evapotranspiration Data Assimilation Technique for Streamflow Estimates: A Case Study in a Semi-Arid Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow estimates are substantially important as fresh water shortages increase in arid and semi-arid regions where evapotranspiration (ET is a significant contribution to the water balance. In this regard, evapotranspiration data can be assimilated into a distributed hydrological model (SWAT, Soil and Water Assessment Tool for improving streamflow estimates. The SWAT model has been widely used for streamflow estimations, but the applications combining SWAT and ET products were rare. Thus, this study aims to develop a SWAT-based evapotranspiration data assimilation system. In particular, SWAT is gridded at Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU level to incorporate gridded ET products acquired from the remote sensing-based ETMonitor model. In the modeling case, Gridded SWAT (GSWAT shows a good agreement of streamflow modeling with the original SWAT. Such a scant margin between them is due to the modeling domain mismatch caused by different HRU delineations. In the ET assimilation case, we carry out a synthetic data experiment to illustrate the state augmentation Direct Insertion (DI method and a real data experiment for the upper Heihe River Basin. The results demonstrate the benefits of the ET assimilation for improving hydrologic processes representations. In the future, more remotely sensed data can be assimilated into the data assimilation system to provide more reliable hydrological predictions.

  2. Towards an entropy-based detached-eddy simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Rui; Yan, Chao; Li, XinLiang; Kong, WeiXuan

    2013-10-01

    A concept of entropy increment ratio ( s¯) is introduced for compressible turbulence simulation through a series of direct numerical simulations (DNS). s¯ represents the dissipation rate per unit mechanical energy with the benefit of independence of freestream Mach numbers. Based on this feature, we construct the shielding function f s to describe the boundary layer region and propose an entropy-based detached-eddy simulation method (SDES). This approach follows the spirit of delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) proposed by Spalart et al. in 2005, but it exhibits much better behavior after their performances are compared in the following flows, namely, pure attached flow with thick boundary layer (a supersonic flat-plate flow with high Reynolds number), fully separated flow (the supersonic base flow), and separated-reattached flow (the supersonic cavity-ramp flow). The Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) resolved region is reliably preserved and the modeled stress depletion (MSD) phenomenon which is inherent in DES and DDES is partly alleviated. Moreover, this new hybrid strategy is simple and general, making it applicable to other models related to the boundary layer predictions.

  3. [Does simulator-based team training improve patient safety?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentzsch, H; Urban, B; Sandmeyer, B; Hammer, T; Strohm, P C; Lazarovici, M

    2013-10-01

    Patient safety became paramount in medicine as well as in emergency medicine after it was recognized that preventable, adverse events significantly contributed to morbidity and mortality during hospital stay. The underlying errors cannot usually be explained by medical technical inadequacies only but are more due to difficulties in the transition of theoretical knowledge into tasks under the conditions of clinical reality. Crew Resource Management and Human Factors which determine safety and efficiency of humans in complex situations are suitable to control such sources of error. Simulation significantly improved safety in high reliability organizations, such as the aerospace industry.Thus, simulator-based team training has also been proposed for medical areas. As such training is consuming in cost, time and human resources, the question of the cost-benefit ratio obviously arises. T