Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: The Tamarix case

Science.gov (United States)

Stromberg, J.C.; Lite, S.J.; Marler, R.; Paradzick, C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Shorrock, D.; White, J.M.; White, M.S.

2007-01-01

Aim: To test the hypothesis that anthropogenic alteration of stream-flow regimes is a key driver of compositional shifts from native to introduced riparian plant species. Location: The arid south-western United States; 24 river reaches in the Gila and Lower Colorado drainage basins of Arizona. Methods: We compared the abundance of three dominant woody riparian taxa (native Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii, and introduced Tamarix) between river reaches that varied in stream-flow permanence (perennial vs. intermittent), presence or absence of an upstream flow-regulating dam, and presence or absence of municipal effluent as a stream water source. Results: Populus and Salix were the dominant pioneer trees along the reaches with perennial flow and a natural flood regime. In contrast, Tamarix had high abundance (patch area and basal area) along reaches with intermittent stream flows (caused by natural and cultural factors), as well as those with dam-regulated flows. Main conclusions: Stream-flow regimes are strong determinants of riparian vegetation structure, and hydrological alterations can drive dominance shifts to introduced species that have an adaptive suite of traits. Deep alluvial groundwater on intermittent rivers favours the deep-rooted, stress-adapted Tamarix over the shallower-rooted and more competitive Populus and Salix. On flow-regulated rivers, shifts in flood timing favour the reproductively opportunistic Tamarix over Populus and Salix, both of which have narrow germination windows. The prevailing hydrological conditions thus favour a new dominant pioneer species in the riparian corridors of the American Southwest. These results reaffirm the importance of reinstating stream-flow regimes (inclusive of groundwater flows) for re-establishing the native pioneer trees as the dominant forest type. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

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Piniewski, Mikołaj

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs) on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design) and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1) providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2) isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration) effect, (3) providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Piniewski

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA. A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1 providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2 isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration effect, (3 providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics of Selected Sites in the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and Lower Platte River Basins, Eastern Nebraska, 1928-2004, and Evaluation of Streamflows in Relation to Instream-Flow Criteria, 1953-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Godberson, Julie A.; Steele, Gregory V.

2009-01-01

The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources approved instream-flow appropriations on the Platte River to maintain fish communities, whooping crane roost habitat, and wet meadows used by several wild bird species. In the lower Platte River region, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission owns an appropriation filed to maintain streamflow for fish communities between the Platte River confluence with the Elkhorn River and the mouth of the Platte River. Because Elkhorn River flow is an integral part of the flow in the reach addressed by this appropriation, the Upper Elkhorn and Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources Districts are involved in overall management of anthropogenic effects on the availability of surface water for instream requirements. The Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) and other estimation methodologies were used previously to determine instream requirements for Platte River biota, which led to the filing of five water appropriations applications with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources in 1993 by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission. One of these requested instream-flow appropriations of 3,700 cubic feet per second was for the reach from the Elkhorn River to the mouth of the Platte River. Four appropriations were granted with modifications in 1998, by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources. Daily streamflow data for the periods of record were summarized for 17 streamflow-gaging stations in Nebraska to evaluate streamflow characteristics, including low-flow intervals for consecutive durations of 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, and 183 days. Temporal trends in selected streamflow statistics were not adjusted for variability in precipitation. Results indicated significant positive temporal trends in annual flow for the period of record at eight streamflow-gaging stations - Platte River near Duncan (06774000), Platte River at North Bend (06796000), Elkhorn River at Neligh (06798500), Logan Creek near Uehling (06799500), Maple Creek near Nickerson

Characterization and evaluation of controls on post-fire streamflow response across western US watersheds

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Saxe, Samuel; Hogue, Terri S.; Hay, Lauren

2018-02-01

This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified hydroclimatic regions in the western United States, and evaluating the impact of climate and geophysical variables on response. Eighty-two watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. Percent change in annual runoff ratio, low flows, high flows, peak flows, number of zero flow days, baseflow index, and Richards-Baker flashiness index were calculated for each watershed using pre- and post-fire periods. Independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, vegetation, climate, burn severity, percent area burned, and soils data. Results show that low flows, high flows, and peak flows increase in the first 2 years following a wildfire and decrease over time. Relative response was used to scale response variables with the respective percent area of watershed burned in order to compare regional differences in watershed response. To account for variability in precipitation events, runoff ratio was used to compare runoff directly to PRISM precipitation estimates. To account for regional differences in climate patterns, watersheds were divided into nine regions, or clusters, through k-means clustering using climate data, and regression models were produced for watersheds grouped by total area burned. Watersheds in Cluster 9 (eastern California, western Nevada, Oregon) demonstrate a small negative response to observed flow regimes after fire. Cluster 8 watersheds (coastal California) display the greatest flow responses, typically within the first year following wildfire. Most other watersheds show a positive mean relative response. In addition, simple regression models show low correlation between percent watershed burned and streamflow response, implying that other watershed factors

A spatial assessment of stream-flow characteristics and hydrologic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The global hydrologic regime has been intensively altered through activities such as dam construction, water abstraction, and inter-basin transfers. This paper uses the Range of Variability Approach (RVA) and daily stream flow records from nine gauging stations to characterize stream-flow post dam construction in the ...

LFSTAT - An R-Package for Low-Flow Analysis

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Koffler, D.; Laaha, G.

2012-04-01

When analysing daily streamflow data focusing on low flow and drought, the state of the art is well documented in the Manual on Low-Flow Estimation and Prediction [1] published by the WMO. While it is clear what has to be done, it is not so clear how to preform the analysis and make the calculation as reproducible as possible. Our software solution expands the high preforming statistical open source software package R to analyse daily stream flow data focusing on low-flows. As command-line based programs are not everyone's preference, we also offer a plug-in for the R-Commander, an easy to use graphical user interface (GUI) to analyse data in R. Functionality includes estimation of the most important low-flow indices. Beside standardly used flow indices also BFI and Recession constants can be computed. The main applications of L-moment based Extreme value analysis and regional frequency analysis (RFA) are available. Calculation of streamflow deficits is another important feature. The most common graphics are prepared and can easily be modified according to the users preferences. Graphics include hydrographs for different periods, flexible streamflow deficit plots, baseflow visualisation, flow duration curves as well as double mass curves just to name a few. The package uses a S3-class called lfobj (low-flow objects). Once this objects are created, analysis can be preformed by mouse-click, and a script can be saved to make the analysis easy reproducible. At the moment we are offering implementation of all major methods proposed in the WMO manual on Low-flow Estimation and Predictions. Future plans include e.g. report export in odt-file using odf-weave. We hope to offer a tool to ease and structure the analysis of stream flow data focusing on low-flows and to make analysis transparent and communicable. The package is designed for hydrological research and water management practice, but can also be used in teaching students the first steps in low-flow hydrology.

Causes of interannual to decadal variability of Gila River streamflow over the past century

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M.A. Pascolini-Campbell

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter–spring (December–May, and summer (August–September. The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter–spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928–2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter–spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter–spring streamflow, with El Niño conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter–spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought. Keywords: Streamflow decadal variability, Drought, Pluvials, Treering, Teleconnections, North American Monsoon

Macroinvertebrate community change associated with the severity of streamflow alteration

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Carlisle, Daren M.; Eng, Kenny; Nelson, S.M.

2014-01-01

Natural streamflows play a critical role in stream ecosystems, yet quantitative relations between streamflow alteration and stream health have been elusive. One reason for this difficulty is that neither streamflow alteration nor ecological responses are measured relative to their natural expectations. We assessed macroinvertebrate community condition in 25 mountain streams representing a large gradient of streamflow alteration, which we quantified as the departure of observed flows from natural expectations. Observed flows were obtained from US Geological Survey streamgaging stations and discharge records from dams and diversion structures. During low-flow conditions in September, samples of macroinvertebrate communities were collected at each site, in addition to measures of physical habitat, water chemistry and organic matter. In general, streamflows were artificially high during summer and artificially low throughout the rest of the year. Biological condition, as measured by richness of sensitive taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) and taxonomic completeness (O/E), was strongly and negatively related to the severity of depleted flows in winter. Analyses of macroinvertebrate traits suggest that taxa losses may have been caused by thermal modification associated with streamflow alteration. Our study yielded quantitative relations between the severity of streamflow alteration and the degree of biological impairment and suggests that water management that reduces streamflows during winter months is likely to have negative effects on downstream benthic communities in Utah mountain streams. 

Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

Science.gov (United States)

Southard, Rodney E.

2013-01-01

located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Characterization and evaluation of controls on post-fire streamflow response across western US watersheds

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S. Saxe

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified hydroclimatic regions in the western United States, and evaluating the impact of climate and geophysical variables on response. Eighty-two watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. Percent change in annual runoff ratio, low flows, high flows, peak flows, number of zero flow days, baseflow index, and Richards–Baker flashiness index were calculated for each watershed using pre- and post-fire periods. Independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, vegetation, climate, burn severity, percent area burned, and soils data. Results show that low flows, high flows, and peak flows increase in the first 2 years following a wildfire and decrease over time. Relative response was used to scale response variables with the respective percent area of watershed burned in order to compare regional differences in watershed response. To account for variability in precipitation events, runoff ratio was used to compare runoff directly to PRISM precipitation estimates. To account for regional differences in climate patterns, watersheds were divided into nine regions, or clusters, through k-means clustering using climate data, and regression models were produced for watersheds grouped by total area burned. Watersheds in Cluster 9 (eastern California, western Nevada, Oregon demonstrate a small negative response to observed flow regimes after fire. Cluster 8 watersheds (coastal California display the greatest flow responses, typically within the first year following wildfire. Most other watersheds show a positive mean relative response. In addition, simple regression models show low correlation between percent watershed burned and streamflow response, implying that

Streamflow ratings

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Holmes, Robert R.; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-01-01

Autonomous direct determination of a continuous time series of streamflow is not economically feasible at present (2014). As such, surrogates are used to derive a continuous time series of streamflow. The derivation process entails developing a streamflow rating, which can range from a simple, single-valued relation between stage and streamflow to a fully dynamic one-dimensional model based on hydraulics of the flow.

River Stream-Flow and Zayanderoud Reservoir Operation Modeling Using the Fuzzy Inference System

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Saeed Jamali

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The Zayanderoud basin is located in the central plateau of Iran. As a result of population increase and agricultural and industrial developments, water demand on this basin has increased extensively. Given the importance of reservoir operation in water resource and management studies, the performance of fuzzy inference system (FIS for Zayanderoud reservoir operation is investigated in this paper. The model of operation consists of two parts. In the first part, the seasonal river stream-flow is forecasted using the fuzzy rule-based system. The southern oscillated index, rain, snow, and discharge are inputs of the model and the seasonal river stream-flow its output. In the second part, the operation model is constructed. The amount of releases is first optimized by a nonlinear optimization model and then the rule curves are extracted using the fuzzy inference system. This model operates on an "if-then" principle, where the "if" is a vector of fuzzy permits and "then" is the fuzzy result. The reservoir storage capacity, inflow, demand, and year condition factor are used as permits. Monthly release is taken as the consequence. The Zayanderoud basin is investigated as a case study. Different performance indices such as reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability are calculated. According to results, FIS works more effectively than the traditional reservoir operation methods such as standard operation policy (SOP or linear regression.

Streamflow characteristics at hydrologic bench-mark stations

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Lawrence, C.L.

1987-01-01

The Hydrologic Bench-Mark Network was established in the 1960's. Its objectives were to document the hydrologic characteristics of representative undeveloped watersheds nationwide and to provide a comparative base for studying the effects of man on the hydrologic environment. The network, which consists of 57 streamflow gaging stations and one lake-stage station in 39 States, is planned for permanent operation. This interim report describes streamflow characteristics at each bench-mark site and identifies time trends in annual streamflow that have occurred during the data-collection period. The streamflow characteristics presented for each streamflow station are (1) flood and low-flow frequencies, (2) flow duration, (3) annual mean flow, and (4) the serial correlation coefficient for annual mean discharge. In addition, Kendall's tau is computed as an indicator of time trend in annual discharges. The period of record for most stations was 13 to 17 years, although several stations had longer periods of record. The longest period was 65 years for Merced River near Yosemite, Calif. Records of flow at 6 of 57 streamflow sites in the network showed a statistically significant change in annual mean discharge over the period of record, based on computations of Kendall's tau. The values of Kendall's tau ranged from -0.533 to 0.648. An examination of climatological records showed that changes in precipitation were most likely the cause for the change in annual mean discharge.

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

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Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

1999-01-01

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

Low-flow characteristics of streams in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Feaster, Toby D.; Guimaraes, Wladmir B.

2017-09-22

An ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina is important for the protection and preservation of the State’s water resources. Information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams is especially important during critical flow periods, such as during the historic droughts that South Carolina has experienced in the past few decades.Between 2008 and 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, updated low-flow statistics at 106 continuous-record streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey for the eight major river basins in South Carolina. The low-flow frequency statistics included the annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day mean flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, depending on the length of record available at the streamflow-gaging station. Computations of daily mean flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, 90-, and 95-percent probability of exceedance also were included.This report summarizes the findings from publications generated during the 2008 to 2016 investigations. Trend analyses for the annual minimum 7-day average flows are provided as well as trend assessments of long-term annual precipitation data. Statewide variability in the annual minimum 7-day average flow is assessed at eight long-term (record lengths from 55 to 78 years) streamgages. If previous low-flow statistics were available, comparisons with the updated annual minimum 7-day average flow, having a 10-year recurrence interval, were made. In addition, methods for estimating low-flow statistics at ungaged locations near a gaged location are described.

Statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Eash, David A.; O'Shea, Padraic S.; Weber, Jared R.; Nguyen, Kevin T.; Montgomery, Nicholas L.; Simonson, Adrian J.

2016-01-04

Statistical summaries of streamflow data collected at 184 streamgages in Iowa are presented in this report. All streamgages included for analysis have at least 10 years of continuous record collected before or through September 2013. This report is an update to two previously published reports that presented statistical summaries of selected Iowa streamflow data through September 1988 and September 1996. The statistical summaries include (1) monthly and annual flow durations, (2) annual exceedance probabilities of instantaneous peak discharges (flood frequencies), (3) annual exceedance probabilities of high discharges, and (4) annual nonexceedance probabilities of low discharges and seasonal low discharges. Also presented for each streamgage are graphs of the annual mean discharges, mean annual mean discharges, 50-percent annual flow-duration discharges (median flows), harmonic mean flows, mean daily mean discharges, and flow-duration curves. Two sets of statistical summaries are presented for each streamgage, which include (1) long-term statistics for the entire period of streamflow record and (2) recent-term statistics for or during the 30-year period of record from 1984 to 2013. The recent-term statistics are only calculated for streamgages with streamflow records pre-dating the 1984 water year and with at least 10 years of record during 1984–2013. The streamflow statistics in this report are not adjusted for the effects of water use; although some of this water is used consumptively, most of it is returned to the streams.

Linking fish tolerance to water quality criteria for the assessment of environmental flows: A practical method for streamflow regulation and pollution control.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Changsen; Yang, Shengtian; Liu, Junguo; Liu, Changming; Hao, Fanghua; Wang, Zhonggen; Zhang, Huitong; Song, Jinxi; Mitrovic, Simon M; Lim, Richard P

2018-05-15

The survival of aquatic biota in stream ecosystems depends on both water quantity and quality, and is particularly susceptible to degraded water quality in regulated rivers. Maintenance of environmental flows (e-flows) for aquatic biota with optimum water quantity and quality is essential for sustainable ecosystem services, especially in developing regions with insufficient stream monitoring of hydrology, water quality and aquatic biota. Few e-flow methods are available that closely link aquatic biota tolerances to pollutant concentrations in a simple and practical manner. In this paper a new method was proposed to assess e-flows that aimed to satisfy the requirements of aquatic biota for both the quantity and quality of the streamflow by linking fish tolerances to water quality criteria, or the allowable concentration of pollutants. For better operation of water projects and control of pollutants discharged into streams, this paper presented two coefficients for streamflow adjustment and pollutant control. Assessment of e-flows in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River, shows that streamflow in dry seasons failed to meet e-flow requirements. Pollutant influx exerted a large pressure on the aquatic ecosystem, with pollutant concentrations much higher than that of the fish tolerance thresholds. We found that both flow velocity and water temperature exerted great influences on the pollutant degradation rate. Flow velocity had a much greater influence on pollutant degradation than did the standard deviation of flow velocity. This study provides new methods to closely link the tolerance of aquatic biota to water quality criteria for e-flow assessment. The recommended coefficients for streamflow adjustment and pollutant control, to dynamically regulate streamflow and control pollutant discharge, are helpful for river management and ecosystems rehabilitation. The relatively low data requirement also makes the method easy to use efficiently in developing

Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

Science.gov (United States)

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-08-16

Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

Estimating annual high-flow statistics and monthly and seasonal low-flow statistics for ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Curran, Janet H.

2003-01-01

Methods for estimating daily mean flow-duration statistics for seven regions in Alaska and low-flow frequencies for one region, southeastern Alaska, were developed from daily mean discharges for streamflow-gaging stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. The 15-, 10-, 9-, 8-, 7-, 6-, 5-, 4-, 3-, 2-, and 1-percent duration flows were computed for the October-through-September water year for 222 stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. The 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows were computed for the individual months of July, August, and September for 226 stations in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. The 98-, 95-, 90-, 85-, 80-, 70-, 60-, and 50-percent duration flows were computed for the season July-through-September for 65 stations in southeastern Alaska. The 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low-flow frequencies for the season July-through-September were computed for 65 stations for most of southeastern Alaska. Low-flow analyses were limited to particular months or seasons in order to omit winter low flows, when ice effects reduce the quality of the records and validity of statistical assumptions. Regression equations for estimating the selected high-flow and low-flow statistics for the selected months and seasons for ungaged sites were developed from an ordinary-least-squares regression model using basin characteristics as independent variables. Drainage area and precipitation were significant explanatory variables for high flows, and drainage area, precipitation, mean basin elevation, and area of glaciers were significant explanatory variables for low flows. The estimating equations can be used at ungaged sites in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada where streamflow regulation, streamflow diversion, urbanization, and natural damming and releasing of water do not affect the streamflow data for the given month or season. Standard errors of estimate ranged from 15 to 56 percent for high-duration flow

Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

2018-02-01

Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff) of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA). A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1) the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils), (2) the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3) the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for some of the

Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Tijdeman

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA. A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1 the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils, (2 the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3 the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for

Reconstruction and analysis of the past five centuries of streamflow on northern slopes on Tianshan Mountains in Northern Xinjiang, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yuhui; Chen, Yaning; Wang, Minzhong; Sun, Huilan

2017-07-01

We examined the changes in streamflow on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China, over two time scales: the past 500 years, based on dendrochronology data; and the past 50 years, based on streamflow data from hydrological stations. The method of artificial neural networks built from the data of the 50-year period was used to reconstruct the streamflow of the 500-year period. The results indicate that streamflow has undergone seven high-flow periods and four low-flow periods during the past 500 years. To identify possible transition points in the streamflow, we applied the Mann-Kendall and running T tests to the 50- and 500-year periods, respectively. During the past 500 years, streamflow has changed significantly from low to high flow about three to four times, and from high to low flow about three to five times. Over the recent 50 years, there have been three phases of variation in river runoff, and the most distinct transition of streamflow occurred in 1996.

Obtaining Streamflow Statistics for Massachusetts Streams on the World Wide Web

Science.gov (United States)

Ries, Kernell G.; Steeves, Peter A.; Freeman, Aleda; Singh, Raj

2000-01-01

A World Wide Web application has been developed to make it easy to obtain streamflow statistics for user-selected locations on Massachusetts streams. The Web application, named STREAMSTATS (available at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/massachusetts.html ), can provide peak-flow frequency, low-flow frequency, and flow-duration statistics for most streams in Massachusetts. These statistics describe the magnitude (how much), frequency (how often), and duration (how long) of flow in a stream. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published streamflow statistics, such as the 100-year peak flow, the 7-day, 10-year low flow, and flow-duration statistics, for its data-collection stations in numerous reports. Federal, State, and local agencies need these statistics to plan and manage use of water resources and to regulate activities in and around streams. Engineering and environmental consulting firms, utilities, industry, and others use the statistics to design and operate water-supply systems, hydropower facilities, industrial facilities, wastewater treatment facilities, and roads, bridges, and other structures. Until now, streamflow statistics for data-collection stations have often been difficult to obtain because they are scattered among many reports, some of which are not readily available to the public. In addition, streamflow statistics are often needed for locations where no data are available. STREAMSTATS helps solve these problems. STREAMSTATS was developed jointly by the USGS and MassGIS, the State Geographic Information Systems (GIS) agency, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Departments of Environmental Management and Environmental Protection. The application consists of three major components: (1) a user interface that displays maps and allows users to select stream locations for which they want streamflow statistics (fig. 1), (2) a data base of previously published streamflow statistics and descriptive information for 725 USGS data

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Risley, John C.; Wallick, J. Rose; Mangano, Joseph F.; Jones, Krista L.

2012-01-01

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42–50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39–52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual

Streamflow depletion by wells--Understanding and managing the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Paul M.; Leake, Stanley A.

2012-11-02

Groundwater is an important source of water for many human needs, including public supply, agriculture, and industry. With the development of any natural resource, however, adverse consequences may be associated with its use. One of the primary concerns related to the development of groundwater resources is the effect of groundwater pumping on streamflow. Groundwater and surface-water systems are connected, and groundwater discharge is often a substantial component of the total flow of a stream. Groundwater pumping reduces the amount of groundwater that flows to streams and, in some cases, can draw streamflow into the underlying groundwater system. Streamflow reductions (or depletions) caused by pumping have become an important water-resource management issue because of the negative impacts that reduced flows can have on aquatic ecosystems, the availability of surface water, and the quality and aesthetic value of streams and rivers. Scientific research over the past seven decades has made important contributions to the basic understanding of the processes and factors that affect streamflow depletion by wells. Moreover, advances in methods for simulating groundwater systems with computer models provide powerful tools for estimating the rates, locations, and timing of streamflow depletion in response to groundwater pumping and for evaluating alternative approaches for managing streamflow depletion. The primary objective of this report is to summarize these scientific insights and to describe the various field methods and modeling approaches that can be used to understand and manage streamflow depletion. A secondary objective is to highlight several misconceptions concerning streamflow depletion and to explain why these misconceptions are incorrect.

Groundwater recharge in Wisconsin--Annual estimates for 1970-99 using streamflow data

Science.gov (United States)

Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2011-01-01

The groundwater component of streamflow is important because it is indicative of the sustained flow of a stream during dry periods, is often of better quality, and has a smaller range of temperatures, than surface contributions to streamflow. All three of these characteristics are important to the health of aquatic life in a stream. If recharge to the aquifers is to be preserved or enhanced, it is important to understand the present partitioning of total streamflow into base flow and stormflow. Additionally, an estimate of groundwater recharge is important for understanding the flows within a groundwater system-information important for water availability/sustainability or other assessments. The U.S. Geological Survey operates numerous continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (Hirsch and Norris, 2001), which can be used to provide estimates of average annual base flow. In addition to these continuous record sites, Gebert and others (2007) showed that having a few streamflow measurements in a basin can appreciably reduce the error in a base-flow estimate for that basin. Therefore, in addition to the continuous-record gaging stations, a substantial number of low-flow partial-record sites (6 to 15 discharge measurements) and miscellaneous-measurement sites (1 to 3 discharge measurements) that were operated during 1964-90 throughout the State were included in this work to provide additional insight into spatial distribution of annual base flow and, in turn, groundwater recharge.

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

Science.gov (United States)

Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

2016-01-19

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent

Physical habitat classification and instream flow modeling to determine habitat availability during low-flow periods, North Fork Shenandoah River, Virginia

Science.gov (United States)

Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Hayes, Donald C.; Ruhl, Peter M.

2006-01-01

Increasing development and increasing water withdrawals for public, industrial, and agricultural water supply threaten to reduce streamflows in the Shenandoah River basin in Virginia. Water managers need more information to balance human water-supply needs with the daily streamflows necessary for maintaining the aquatic ecosystems. To meet the need for comprehensive information on hydrology, water supply, and instream-flow requirements of the Shenandoah River basin, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission conducted a cooperative investigation of habitat availability during low-flow periods on the North Fork Shenandoah River. Historic streamflow data and empirical data on physical habitat, river hydraulics, fish community structure, and recreation were used to develop a physical habitat simulation model. Hydraulic measurements were made during low, medium, and high flows in six reaches at a total of 36 transects that included riffles, runs, and pools, and that had a variety of substrates and cover types. Habitat suitability criteria for fish were developed from detailed fish-community sampling and microhabitat observations. Fish were grouped into four guilds of species and life stages with similar habitat requirements. Simulated habitat was considered in the context of seasonal flow regimes to show the availability of flows that sustain suitable habitat during months when precipitation and streamflow are scarce. The North Fork Shenandoah River basin was divided into three management sections for analysis purposes: the upper section, middle section, and lower section. The months of July, August, and September were chosen to represent a low-flow period in the basin with low mean monthly flows, low precipitation, high temperatures, and high water withdrawals. Exceedance flows calculated from the combined data from these three months describe low-flow periods on the North Fork Shenandoah River. Long-term records from three

Low-flow characteristics for selected streams in Indiana

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Wilson, John T.

2015-01-01

The management and availability of Indiana’s water resources increase in importance every year. Specifically, information on low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to State water-management agencies. These agencies need low-flow information when working with issues related to irrigation, municipal and industrial water supplies, fish and wildlife protection, and the dilution of waste. Industrial, municipal, and other facilities must obtain National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits if their discharges go directly to surface waters. The Indiana Department of Environmental Management (IDEM) requires low-flow statistics in order to administer the NPDES permit program. Low-flow-frequency characteristics were computed for 272 continuous-record stations. The information includes low-flow-frequency analysis, flow-duration analysis, and harmonic mean for the continuous-record stations. For those stations affected by some form of regulation, low-flow frequency curves are based on the longest period of homogeneous record under current conditions. Low-flow-frequency values and harmonic mean flow (if sufficient data were available) were estimated for the 166 partial-record stations. Partial-record stations are ungaged sites where streamflow measurements were made at base flow.

Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

2012-01-01

Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios

Streamflow conditions along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

Science.gov (United States)

Juracek, Kyle E.

2017-11-14

The availability of adequate water to meet the present (2017) and future needs of humans, fish, and wildlife is a fundamental issue for the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation in northeast Kansas. Because Soldier Creek flows through the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation Reservation, it is an important tribal resource. An understanding of historical Soldier Creek streamflow conditions is required for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages along Soldier Creek were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends by Juracek (2017). Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to compute annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow. Results of the assessment are summarized in this fact sheet.

Trends and sensitivities of low streamflow extremes to discharge timing and magnitude in Pacific Northwest mountain streams

Science.gov (United States)

Patrick R. Kormos; Charlie Luce; Seth J. Wenger; Wouter R. Berghuijs

2016-01-01

Path analyses of historical streamflow data from the Pacific Northwest indicate that the precipitation amount has been the dominant control on the magnitude of low streamflow extremes compared to the air temperature-affected timing of snowmelt runoff. The relative sensitivities of low streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes have important...

Urban base flow with low impact development

Science.gov (United States)

Bhaskar, Aditi; Hogan, Dianna M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2016-01-01

A novel form of urbanization, low impact development (LID), aims to engineer systems that replicate natural hydrologic functioning, in part by infiltrating stormwater close to the impervious surfaces that generate it. We sought to statistically evaluate changes in a base flow regime because of urbanization with LID, specifically changes in base flow magnitude, seasonality, and rate of change. We used a case study watershed in Clarksburg, Maryland, in which streamflow was monitored during whole-watershed urbanization from forest and agricultural to suburban residential development using LID. The 1.11-km2 watershed contains 73 infiltration-focused stormwater facilities, including bioretention facilities, dry wells, and dry swales. We examined annual and monthly flow during and after urbanization (2004–2014) and compared alterations to nearby forested and urban control watersheds. We show that total streamflow and base flow increased in the LID watershed during urbanization as compared with control watersheds. The LID watershed had more gradual storm recessions after urbanization and attenuated seasonality in base flow. These flow regime changes may be because of a reduction in evapotranspiration because of the overall decrease in vegetative cover with urbanization and the increase in point sources of recharge. Precipitation that may once have infiltrated soil, been stored in soil moisture to be eventually transpired in a forested landscape, may now be recharged and become base flow. The transfer of evapotranspiration to base flow is an unintended consequence to the water balance of LID.

Assessing the impact of managed aquifer recharge on seasonal low flows in a semi-arid alluvial river

Science.gov (United States)

Ronayne, M. J.; Roudebush, J. A.; Stednick, J. D.

2016-12-01

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is one strategy that can be used to augment seasonal low flows in alluvial rivers. Successful implementation requires an understanding of spatio-temporal groundwater-surface water exchange. In this study we conducted numerical groundwater modeling to analyze the performance of an existing MAR system in the South Platte River Valley in northeastern Colorado (USA). The engineered system involves a spatial reallocation of water during the winter months; alluvial groundwater is extracted near the river and pumped to upgradient recharge ponds, with the intent of producing a delayed hydraulic response that increases the riparian zone water table (and therefore streamflow) during summer months. Higher flows during the summer are required to improve riverine habitat for threatened species in the Platte River. Modeling scenarios were constrained by surface (streamflow gaging) and subsurface (well data) measurements throughout the study area. We compare two scenarios to analyze the impact of MAR: a natural base case scenario and an active management scenario that includes groundwater pumping and managed recharge. Steady-periodic solutions are used to evaluate the long-term stabilized behavior of the stream-aquifer system with and without pumping/recharge. Streamflow routing is included in the model, which permits quantification of the timing and location of streamflow accretion (increased streamflow associated with MAR). An analysis framework utilizing capture concepts is developed to interpret seasonal changes in head-dependent flows to/from the aquifer, including groundwater-surface water exchange that impacts streamflow. Results demonstrate that accretion occurs during the target low-flow period but is not limited to those months, highlighting an inefficiency that is a function of the aquifer geometry and hydraulic properties. The results of this study offer guidance for other flow augmentation projects that rely on water storage in shallow

Separation of base flow from streamflow using groundwater levels - illustrated for the Pang catchment (UK)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peters, E.; Lanen, van H.A.J.

2005-01-01

A new filter to separate base flow from streamflow has developed that uses observed groundwater levels. To relate the base flow to the observed groundwater levels, a non-linear relation was used. This relation is suitable for unconfined aquifers with deep groundwater levels that do not respond to

FLO1K, global maps of mean, maximum and minimum annual streamflow at 1 km resolution from 1960 through 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Beck, Hylke E.; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-03-01

Streamflow data is highly relevant for a variety of socio-economic as well as ecological analyses or applications, but a high-resolution global streamflow dataset is yet lacking. We created FLO1K, a consistent streamflow dataset at a resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km) and global coverage. FLO1K comprises mean, maximum and minimum annual flow for each year in the period 1960-2015, provided as spatially continuous gridded layers. We mapped streamflow by means of artificial neural networks (ANNs) regression. An ensemble of ANNs were fitted on monthly streamflow observations from 6600 monitoring stations worldwide, i.e., minimum and maximum annual flows represent the lowest and highest mean monthly flows for a given year. As covariates we used the upstream-catchment physiography (area, surface slope, elevation) and year-specific climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, aridity index and seasonality indices). Confronting the maps with independent data indicated good agreement (R2 values up to 91%). FLO1K delivers essential data for freshwater ecology and water resources analyses at a global scale and yet high spatial resolution.

Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

Science.gov (United States)

Constantz, James E.

1998-01-01

Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following

Retrospective Analysis of Low Flows at Headwater Watersheds in Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Voutchkova, D. D.; Miller, S. N.

2016-12-01

Understanding summer low-flow variability and change in the mountainous West has important implications for water allocations downstream and for maintaining water availability for drinking water supply, reservoir storage, industrial, agricultural, and ecological needs. Wildfires and insect infestations are classical disturbance hydrology topics. It is unclear, however, what are their effects on streamflow and in particular low-flows, when vegetation disturbances are overlapping in time and combined with highly variable and potentially changing local climate. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to quantify changes in low-flows resulting from disturbance in headwater streams. Here we present a retrospective analysis based on: (1) 49-75 complete water years (wy) of daily streamflow data (USGS) for 14 high-elevation headwater watersheds with varying areas (60-1730 km2, 86-100% of watershed area >2000masl) and evergreen forest cover (15-82%), (2) 25-36 complete wy of daily snow-water equivalent accumulation (SWE) and precipitation data from Wyoming SNOTEL stations, (3) burned area boundaries for 20wy (MTBS project), (4) aerial surveys by R1, R2, R4 Forest Service Regions for 18wy (data on tree mortality). We quantify the change in various low-flow characteristics (e.g. post-snowmelt baseflow, Q90 and Q95, 3-,7-, 30- and 90-day annual minima etc.) while accounting for local inter- and multi-annual climate variability by using SWE accumulation data, as it integrates both temperature and precipitation changes. Our approach differs from typical before-after field-based investigation for paired watersheds, as it provides a synthesis over large temporal and spatial scales, resulting in spectrum of possible hydrologic responses due to varying disturbance severity. Quantifying the changes in low-flows and low-flow variability will improve our understanding and will facilitate water management and planning at local state-wide level.

Comparison of historical streamflows to 2013 Streamflows in the Williamson, Sprague, and Wood Rivers, Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, Glen W.; Stonewall, Adam J.

2014-01-01

In 2013, the Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon, experienced a dry spring, resulting in an executive order declaring a state of drought emergency in Klamath County. The 2013 drought limited the water supply and led to a near-total cessation of surface-water diversions for irrigation above Upper Klamath Lake once regulation was implemented. These conditions presented a unique opportunity to understand the effects of water right regulation on streamflows. The effects of regulation of diversions were evaluated by comparing measured 2013 streamflow with data from hydrologically similar years. Years with spring streamflow similar to that in 2013 measured at the Sprague River gage at Chiloquin from water years 1973 to 2012 were used to define a Composite Index Year (CIY; with diversions) for comparison to measured 2013 streamflows (no diversions). The best-fit 6 years (1977, 1981, 1990, 1991, 1994, and 2001) were used to determine the CIY. Two streams account for most of the streamflow into Upper Klamath Lake: the Williamson and Wood Rivers. Most streamflow into the lake is from the Williamson River Basin, which includes the Sprague River. Because most of the diversion regulation affecting the streamflow of the Williamson River occurred in the Sprague River Basin, and because of uncertainties about historical flows in a major diversion above the Williamson River gage, streamflow data from the Sprague River were used to estimate the change in streamflow from regulation of diversions for the Williamson River Basin. Changes in streamflow outside of the Sprague River Basin were likely minor relative to total streamflow. The effect of diversion regulation was evaluated using the “Baseflow Method,” which compared 2013 baseflow to baseflow of the CIY. The Baseflow Method reduces the potential effects of summer precipitation events on the calculations. A similar method using streamflow produced similar results, however, despite at least one summer precipitation event. The

Regional regression equations for the estimation of selected monthly low-flow duration and frequency statistics at ungaged sites on streams in New Jersey

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Kara M.; McHugh, Amy R.

2014-01-01

Regional regression equations were developed for estimating monthly flow-duration and monthly low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged streams in Coastal Plain and non-coastal regions of New Jersey for baseline and current land- and water-use conditions. The equations were developed to estimate 87 different streamflow statistics, which include the monthly 99-, 90-, 85-, 75-, 50-, and 25-percentile flow-durations of the minimum 1-day daily flow; the August–September 99-, 90-, and 75-percentile minimum 1-day daily flow; and the monthly 7-day, 10-year (M7D10Y) low-flow frequency. These 87 streamflow statistics were computed for 41 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) with 20 or more years of record and 167 low-flow partial-record stations in New Jersey with 10 or more streamflow measurements. The regression analyses used to develop equations to estimate selected streamflow statistics were performed by testing the relation between flow-duration statistics and low-flow frequency statistics for 32 basin characteristics (physical characteristics, land use, surficial geology, and climate) at the 41 streamgages and 167 low-flow partial-record stations. The regression analyses determined drainage area, soil permeability, average April precipitation, average June precipitation, and percent storage (water bodies and wetlands) were the significant explanatory variables for estimating the selected flow-duration and low-flow frequency statistics. Streamflow estimates were computed for two land- and water-use conditions in New Jersey—land- and water-use during the baseline period of record (defined as the years a streamgage had little to no change in development and water use) and current land- and water-use conditions (1989–2008)—for each selected station using data collected through water year 2008. The baseline period of record is representative of a period when the basin was unaffected by change in development. The current period is

Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karishma Niloy Kibria

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west, nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams. Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai

2018-01-01

This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (pBasin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

Science.gov (United States)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

2016-04-01

While the societal and economical impacts of floods are well documented and assessable, the impacts of lows flows are less studied and sometimes overlooked. For example, over the western part of Europe, due to intense inland waterway transportation, the economical loses due to low flows are often similar compared to the ones due to floods. In general, the low flow aspect has the tendency to be underestimated by the scientific community. One of the best examples in this respect is the facts that at European level most of the countries have an (early) flood alert system, but in many cases no real information regarding the development, evolution and impacts of droughts. Low flows, occurring during dry periods, may result in several types of problems to society and economy: e.g. lack of water for drinking, irrigation, industrial use and power production, deterioration of water quality, inland waterway transport, agriculture, tourism, issuing and renewing waste disposal permits, and for assessing the impact of prolonged drought on aquatic ecosystems. As such, the ever-increasing demand on water resources calls for better a management, understanding and prediction of the water deficit situation and for more reliable and extended studies regarding the evolution of the low flow situations. In order to find an optimized monthly to seasonal forecast procedure for the German waterways, the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) is exploring multiple approaches at the moment. On the one hand, based on the operational short- to medium-range forecasting chain, existing hydrological models are forced with two different hydro-meteorological inputs: (i) resampled historical meteorology generated by the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach and (ii) ensemble (re-) forecasts of ECMWF's global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which have to be downscaled and bias corrected before feeding the hydrological models. As a second approach BfG evaluates in cooperation with

Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river's annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

Science.gov (United States)

Seyam, Mohammed; Othman, Faridah

2015-07-01

Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro-Wilk and Pettitt's tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

U.S. Geological Survey groundwater toolbox, a graphical and mapping interface for analysis of hydrologic data (version 1.0): user guide for estimation of base flow, runoff, and groundwater recharge from streamflow data

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Paul M.; Cunningham, William L.; Zhai, Tong; Gray, Mark

2015-01-01

This report is a user guide for the streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Toolbox computer program. These include six hydrograph-separation methods to determine the groundwater-discharge (base-flow) and surface-runoff components of streamflow—the Base-Flow Index (BFI; Standard and Modified), HYSEP (Fixed Interval, Sliding Interval, and Local Minimum), and PART methods—and the RORA recession-curve displacement method and associated RECESS program to estimate groundwater recharge from streamflow data. The Groundwater Toolbox is a customized interface built on the nonproprietary, open source MapWindow geographic information system software. The program provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Microsoft Windows computing environment. In addition to the four hydrograph-analysis methods, the Groundwater Toolbox allows for the retrieval of hydrologic time-series data (streamflow, groundwater levels, and precipitation) from the USGS National Water Information System, downloading of a suite of preprocessed geographic information system coverages and meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center, and analysis of data with several preprocessing and postprocessing utilities. With its data retrieval and analysis tools, the Groundwater Toolbox provides methods to estimate many of the components of the water budget for a hydrologic basin, including precipitation; streamflow; base flow; runoff; groundwater recharge; and total, groundwater, and near-surface evapotranspiration.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface

Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Fundel

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

Science.gov (United States)

Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

2013-01-01

Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

Reconstructions of Columbia River streamflow from tree-ring chronologies in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Littell, Jeremy; Pederson, Gregory T.; Gray, Stephen T.; Tjoelker, Michael; Hamlet, Alan F.; Woodhouse, Connie A.

2016-01-01

We developed Columbia River streamflow reconstructions using a network of existing, new, and updated tree-ring records sensitive to the main climatic factors governing discharge. Reconstruction quality is enhanced by incorporating tree-ring chronologies where high snowpack limits growth, which better represent the contribution of cool-season precipitation to flow than chronologies from trees positively sensitive to hydroclimate alone. The best performing reconstruction (back to 1609 CE) explains 59% of the historical variability and the longest reconstruction (back to 1502 CE) explains 52% of the variability. Droughts similar to the high-intensity, long-duration low flows observed during the 1920s and 1940s are rare, but occurred in the early 1500s and 1630s-1640s. The lowest Columbia flow events appear to be reflected in chronologies both positively and negatively related to streamflow, implying low snowpack and possibly low warm-season precipitation. High flows of magnitudes observed in the instrumental record appear to have been relatively common, and high flows from the 1680s to 1740s exceeded the magnitude and duration of observed wet periods in the late-19th and 20th Century. Comparisons between the Columbia River reconstructions and future projections of streamflow derived from global climate and hydrologic models show the potential for increased hydrologic variability, which could present challenges for managing water in the face of competing demands

Novel approach for streamflow forecasting using a hybrid ANFIS-FFA model

Science.gov (United States)

Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Diop, Lamine; El-shafie, Ahmed; Singh, Vijay P.

2017-11-01

, and is able to remove the false (inaccurately) forecasted data in the ANFIS model for extremely low flows. The present results have wider implications not only for streamflow forecasting purposes, but also for other hydro-meteorological forecasting variables requiring only the historical data input data, and attaining a greater level of predictive accuracy with the incorporation of the FFA algorithm as an optimization tool in an ANFIS model.

Hydrological and geophysical investigation of streamflow losses and restoration strategies in an abandoned mine lands setting

Science.gov (United States)

Cravotta, Charles A.; Sherrod, Laura; Galeone, Daniel G.; Lehman, Wayne G.; Ackman, Terry E.; Kramer, Alexa

2017-01-01

Longitudinal discharge and water-quality campaigns (seepage runs) were combined with surface-geophysical surveys, hyporheic-temperature profiling, and watershed-scale hydrological monitoring to evaluate the locations, magnitude, and impact of streamwater losses from the West Creek subbasin of the West West Branch Schuylkill River into the underground Oak Hill Mine complex that extends beneath the watershed divide. Abandoned mine drainage (AMD), containing iron and other contaminants, from the Oak Hill Boreholes to the West Branch Schuylkill River was sustained during low-flow conditions and correlated to streamflow lost through the West Creek streambed. During high-flow conditions, streamflow was transmitted throughout West Creek; however, during low-flow conditions, all streamflow from the perennial headwaters was lost within the 300-to-600-m "upper reach" where an 1889 mine map indicated steeply dipping coalbeds underlie the channel. During low-flow conditions, the channel within the "intermediate reach" 700-to-1650-m downstream gained groundwater seepage with higher pH and specific conductance than upstream; however, all streamflow 1650-to-2050-m downstream was lost to underlying mines. Electrical resistivity and electromagnetic conductivity surveys indicated conductive zones beneath the upper reach, where flow loss occurred, and through the intermediate reach, where gains and losses occurred. Temperature probes at 0.06-to-0.10-m depth within the hyporheic zone of the intermediate reach indicated potential downward fluxes as high as 2.1x10-5 m/s. Cumulative streamflow lost from West Creek during seepage runs averaged 53.4 L/s, which equates to 19.3 percent of the daily average discharge of AMD from the Oak Hill Boreholes and a downward flux of 1.70x10-5 m/s across the 2.1-km-by-1.5-m West Creek stream-channel area.

Attributing uncertainty in streamflow simulations due to variable inputs via the Quantile Flow Deviation metric

Science.gov (United States)

Shoaib, Syed Abu; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish

2018-06-01

Every model to characterise a real world process is affected by uncertainty. Selecting a suitable model is a vital aspect of engineering planning and design. Observation or input errors make the prediction of modelled responses more uncertain. By way of a recently developed attribution metric, this study is aimed at developing a method for analysing variability in model inputs together with model structure variability to quantify their relative contributions in typical hydrological modelling applications. The Quantile Flow Deviation (QFD) metric is used to assess these alternate sources of uncertainty. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) precipitation data for four different Australian catchments is used to analyse the impact of spatial rainfall variability on simulated streamflow variability via the QFD. The QFD metric attributes the variability in flow ensembles to uncertainty associated with the selection of a model structure and input time series. For the case study catchments, the relative contribution of input uncertainty due to rainfall is higher than that due to potential evapotranspiration, and overall input uncertainty is significant compared to model structure and parameter uncertainty. Overall, this study investigates the propagation of input uncertainty in a daily streamflow modelling scenario and demonstrates how input errors manifest across different streamflow magnitudes.

Adjusted Streamflow and Storage 1928-1989 : with Listings of Historical Streamflow, Summation of Storage Change and Adjusted Streamflow : Columbia River and Coastal Basins.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A.G. Crook Company

1993-04-01

The development of irrigation projects since the 1830's and the construction of major dams and reservoirs since the early 1900's have altered substantially the natural streamflow regimen of the Columbia River and its tributaries. As development expanded a multipurpose approach to streamflow regulation evolved to provide flood control, irrigation, hydropower generation, navigation, recreation, water quality enhancement, fish and wildlife, and instream flow maintenance. The responsible agencies use computer programs to determine the effects of various alternative system regulations. This report describes the development of the streamflow data that these computer programs use.

Spatial Correlation Of Streamflows: An Analytical Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

The interwoven space and time variability of climate and landscape properties results in complex and non-linear hydrological response of streamflow dynamics. Understanding how meteorologic and morphological characteristics of catchments affect similarity/dissimilarity of streamflow timeseries at their outlets represents a scientific challenge with application in water resources management, ecological studies and regionalization approaches aimed to predict streamflows in ungauged areas. In this study, we establish an analytical approach to estimate the spatial correlation of daily streamflows in two arbitrary locations within a given hydrologic district or river basin at seasonal and annual time scales. The method is based on a stochastic description of the coupled streamflow dynamics at the outlet of two catchments. The framework aims to express the correlation of daily streamflows at two locations along a river network as a function of a limited number of physical parameters characterizing the main underlying hydrological drivers, that include climate conditions, precipitation regime and catchment drainage rates. The proposed method portrays how heterogeneity of climate and landscape features affect the spatial variability of flow regimes along river systems. In particular, we show that frequency and intensity of synchronous effective rainfall events in the relevant contributing catchments are the main driver of the spatial correlation of daily discharge, whereas only pronounced differences in the drainage rate of the two basins bear a significant effect on the streamflow correlation. The topological arrangement of the two outlets also influences the underlying streamflow correlation, as we show that nested catchments tend to maximize the spatial correlation of flow regimes. The application of the method to a set of catchments in the South-Eastern US suggests the potential of the proposed tool for the characterization of spatial connections of flow regimes in the

Methods for estimating flow-duration curve and low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations on small streams in Minnesota

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Lorenz, David L.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Czuba, Christiana R.

2015-12-24

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of low flows in streams, which are flows in a stream during prolonged dry weather, is fundamental for water-supply planning and design; waste-load allocation; reservoir storage design; and maintenance of water quality and quantity for irrigation, recreation, and wildlife conservation. This report presents the results of a statewide study for which regional regression equations were developed for estimating 13 flow-duration curve statistics and 10 low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged stream locations in Minnesota. The 13 flow-duration curve statistics estimated by regression equations include the 0.0001, 0.001, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999, and 0.9999 exceedance-probability quantiles. The low-flow frequency statistics include annual and seasonal (spring, summer, fall, winter) 7-day mean low flows, seasonal 30-day mean low flows, and summer 122-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years. Estimates of the 13 flow-duration curve statistics and the 10 low-flow frequency statistics are provided for 196 U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamgages using streamflow data collected through September 30, 2012.

Water quality, streamflow conditions, and annual flow-duration curves for streams of the San Juan–Chama Project, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, 1935-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Sarah E.; Anderholm, Scott K.; Hafich, Katya A.

2013-01-01

The Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with water diverted from the Rio Grande. Water diverted from the Rio Grande for municipal use is derived from the San Juan–Chama Project, which delivers water from streams in the southern San Juan Mountains in the Colorado River Basin in southern Colorado to the Rio Chama watershed and the Rio Grande Basin in northern New Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Albuquerque–Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, has compiled historical streamflow and water-quality data and collected new water-quality data to characterize the water quality and streamflow conditions and annual flow variability, as characterized by annual flow-duration curves, of streams of the San Juan–Chama Project. Nonparametric statistical methods were applied to calculate annual and monthly summary statistics of streamflow, trends in streamflow conditions were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual variation in streamflow conditions was evaluated with annual flow-duration curves. The study area is located in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado and includes the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River, tributaries of the San Juan River in the Colorado River Basin located in the southern San Juan Mountains, and Willow Creek and Horse Lake Creek, tributaries of the Rio Chama in the Rio Grande Basin. The quality of water in the streams in the study area generally varied by watershed on the basis of the underlying geology and the volume and source of the streamflow. Water from the Rio Blanco and Little Navajo River watersheds, primarily underlain by volcanic deposits, volcaniclastic sediments and landslide deposits derived from these materials, was compositionally similar and had low specific-conductance values relative to the other streams in the study area. Water from the Navajo River

Summertime Minimum Streamflow Elasticity to Antecendent Winter Precipitation, Peak Snow Water Equivalent and Summertime Evaporative Demand in the Western US Maritime Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Schaperow, J.; Cooper, M. G.; Cooley, S. W.; Alam, S.; Smith, L. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

As climate regimes shift, streamflows and our ability to predict them will change, as well. Elasticity of summer minimum streamflow is estimated for 138 unimpaired headwater river basins across the maritime western US mountains to better understand how climatologic variables and geologic characteristics interact to determine the response of summer low flows to winter precipitation (PPT), spring snow water equivalent (SWE), and summertime potential evapotranspiration (PET). Elasticities are calculated using log log linear regression, and linear reservoir storage coefficients are used to represent basin geology. Storage coefficients are estimated using baseflow recession analysis. On average, SWE, PET, and PPT explain about 1/3 of the summertime low flow variance. Snow-dominated basins with long timescales of baseflow recession are least sensitive to changes in SWE, PPT, and PET, while rainfall-dominated, faster draining basins are most sensitive. There are also implications for the predictability of summer low flows. The R2 between streamflow and SWE drops from 0.62 to 0.47 from snow-dominated to rain-dominated basins, while there is no corresponding increase in R2 between streamflow and PPT.

Can Low Frequency Measurements Be Good Enough? - A Statistical Assessment of Citizen Hydrology Streamflow Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Davids, J. C.; Rutten, M.; Van De Giesen, N.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic data has traditionally been collected with permanent installations of sophisticated and relatively accurate but expensive monitoring equipment at limited numbers of sites. Consequently, the spatial coverage of the data is limited and costs are high. Achieving adequate maintenance of sophisticated monitoring equipment often exceeds local technical and resource capacity, and permanently deployed monitoring equipment is susceptible to vandalism, theft, and other hazards. Rather than using expensive, vulnerable installations at a few points, SmartPhones4Water (S4W), a form of Citizen Hydrology, leverages widely available mobile technology to gather hydrologic data at many sites in a manner that is repeatable and scalable. However, there is currently a limited understanding of the impact of decreased observational frequency on the accuracy of key streamflow statistics like minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff. As a first step towards evaluating the tradeoffs between traditional continuous monitoring approaches and emerging Citizen Hydrology methods, we randomly selected 50 active U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gauges in California. We used historical 15 minute flow data from 01/01/2008 through 12/31/2014 to develop minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff values (7 year total) for each gauge. In order to mimic lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations, we developed a bootstrap randomized subsampling with replacement procedure. We calculated the same statistics, along with their respective distributions, from 50 subsample iterations with four different subsampling intervals (i.e. daily, three day, weekly, and monthly). Based on our results we conclude that, depending on the types of questions being asked, and the watershed characteristics, Citizen Hydrology streamflow measurements can provide useful and accurate information. Depending on watershed characteristics, minimum flows were reasonably estimated with subsample intervals ranging from

Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?

Science.gov (United States)

The Mashel Streamflow Modeling Project in the Mashel River Basin, Washington, is using a watershed-scale ecohydrological model to assess whether longer forest harvest intervals can remediate summer low flow conditions that have contributed to sharply reduced runs of spawning Chin...

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Streamflow of 2016—Water year summary

Science.gov (United States)

Jian, Xiaodong; Wolock, David M.; Lins, Harry F.; Brady, Steven J.

2017-09-26

The maps and graphs in this summary describe national streamflow conditions for water year 2016 (October 1, 2015, to September 30, 2016) in the context of streamflow ranks relative to the 87-year period of 1930–2016, unless otherwise noted. The illustrations are based on observed data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Streamflow Network. The period of 1930–2016 was used because the number of streamgages before 1930 was too small to provide representative data for computing statistics for most regions of the country.In the summary, reference is made to the term “runoff,” which is the depth to which a river basin, State, or other geographic area would be covered with water if all the streamflow within the area during a specified period was uniformly distributed on it. Runoff quantifies the magnitude of water flowing through the Nation’s rivers and streams in measurement units that can be compared from one area to another.In all the graphics, a rank of 1 indicates the highest flow of all years analyzed and 87 indicates the lowest flow of all years. Rankings of streamflow are grouped into much below normal, below normal, normal, above normal, and much above normal based on percentiles of flow (less than 10 percent, 10–24 percent, 25–75 percent, 76–90 percent, and greater than 90 percent, respectively). Some of the data used to produce the maps and graphs are provisional and subject to change.

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

2011-11-01

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. F. van Ogtrop

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

Streamflow timing of mountain rivers in Spain: Recent changes and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Rahman, Kazi; Beniston, Martin

2014-09-01

Changes in streamflow timing are studied in 27 mountain rivers in Spain, in the context of climate warming. The studied rivers are characterized by a highflows period in spring due to snowmelt, although differences in the role of snow and consequently in the timing of flows are observed amongst cases. We calculated for every year of the studied period (1976-2008) various hydrological indices that enable locating the timing of spring flows within the annual hydrologic regime, including the day of 75% of mass, and the day of spring maximum. The evolution of these indices was compared with that of seasonal precipitation and temperature, and trends in time were calculated. Results show a general negative trend in the studied indices which indicates that spring peaks due to snowmelt are shifting earlier within the hydrological year. Spring temperatures, which show a significant increasing trend, are the main co-variable responsible for the observed changes in the streamflow timing. In a second set of analyses we performed hydrological simulations with the SWAT model, in order to estimate changes in streamflow timing under projected warming temperatures. Projections show further shifting of spring peak flows along with a more pronounced low water level period in the summer. The simulations also allowed quantifying the role of snowfall-snowmelt on the observed changes in streamflow.

Alteration of streamflow magnitudes and potential ecological consequences: A multiregional assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.; Meador, Michael R.

2011-01-01

Human impacts on watershed hydrology are widespread in the US, but the prevalence and severity of stream-flow alteration and its potential ecological consequences have not been quantified on a national scale. We assessed streamflow alteration at 2888 streamflow monitoring sites throughout the conterminous US. The magnitudes of mean annual (1980–2007) minimum and maximum streamflows were found to have been altered in 86% of assessed streams. The occurrence, type, and severity of streamflow alteration differed markedly between arid and wet climates. Biological assessments conducted on a subset of these streams showed that, relative to eight chemical and physical covariates, diminished flow magnitudes were the primary predictors of biological integrity for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. In addition, the likelihood of biological impairment doubled with increasing severity of diminished streamflows. Among streams with diminished flow magnitudes, increasingly common fish and macroinvertebrate taxa possessed traits characteristic of lake or pond habitats, including a preference for fine-grained substrates and slow-moving currents, as well as the ability to temporarily leave the aquatic environment.

Predicting forested catchment evapotranspiration and streamflow from stand sapwood area and Aridity Index

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Lane, Patrick

2016-04-01

Estimating the water balance of ungauged catchments has been the subject of decades of research. An extension of the fundamental problem of estimating the hydrology is then understanding how do changes in catchment attributes affect the water balance component? This is a particular issue in forest hydrology where vegetation exerts such a strong influence on evapotranspiration (ET), and consequent streamflow (Q). Given the primacy of trees in the water balance, and the potential for change to species and density through logging, fire, pests and diseases and drought, methods that directly relate ET/Q to vegetation structure, species, and stand density are very powerful. Plot studies on tree water use routinely use sapwood area (SA) to calculate transpiration and upscale to the stand/catchment scale. Recent work in south eastern Australian forests have found stand-wide SA to be linearly correlated (R2 = 0.89) with long term mean annual loss (P-Q), and hence, long term mean annual catchment streamflow. Robust relationships can be built between basal area (BA), tree density and stand SA. BA and density are common forest inventory measurements. Until now, no research has related the fundamental stand attribute of SA to streamflow. The data sets include catchments that have been thinned and with varying age classes. Thus far these analyses have been for energy limited systems in wetter forest types. SA has proven to be a more robust biometric than leaf area index which varies seasonally. That long term ET/Q is correlated with vegetation conforms to the Budyko framework. Use of a downscaled (20 m) Aridity Index (AI) has shown distinct correlations with stand SA, and therefore T. Structural patterns at a the hillslope scale not only correlate with SA and T, but also with interception (I) and forest floor evaporation (Es). These correlations between AI and I and Es have given R2 > 0.8. The result of these studies suggest an ability to estimate mean annual ET fluxes at sub

Streamflow monitoring and statistics for development of water rights claims for Wild and Scenic Rivers, Owyhee Canyonlands Wilderness, Idaho, 2012

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Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.

2013-01-01

-record method. The synthetic and actual daily mean streamflow records were used to estimate daily mean streamflow that was exceeded 80, 50, and 20 percent of the time (80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedances) for bimonthly and annual periods. Bankfull streamflow statistics were calculated by fitting the synthetic and actual annual peak streamflow records to a log Pearson Type III distribution using Bulletin 17B guidelines in the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. The coefficients of determination (R2) for the regressions between the monitoring and index sites ranged from 0.74 for Wickahoney Creek to 0.98 for the West Fork Bruneau River and Deep Creek. Confidence in computed streamflow statistics is highest among other sites for the East Fork Owyhee River and the West Fork Bruneau River on the basis of regression statistics, visual fit of the related data, and the range and number of streamflow measurements. Streamflow statistics for sites with the greatest uncertainty included Big Jacks, Little Jacks, Cottonwood, Wickahoney, and Sheep Creeks. The uncertainty in computed streamflow statistics was due to a number of factors which included the distance of index sites relative to monitoring sites, relatively low streamflow conditions that occurred during the study, and the limited number and range of streamflow measurements. However, the computed streamflow statistics are considered the best possible estimates given available datasets in the remote study area. Streamflow measurements over a wider range of hydrologic and climatic conditions would improve the relations between streamflow characteristics at monitoring and index sites. Additionally, field surveys are needed to verify if the streamflows selected for the water rights claims are sufficient for maintaining outstanding remarkable values in the Wild and Scenic rivers included in the study.

Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

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Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

2015-08-24

Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

Comparison of base flows to selected streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

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Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2012-01-01

Base flows were compared with published streamflow statistics to assess climate variability and to determine the published statistics that can be substituted for annual and seasonal base flows of unregulated streams in West Virginia. The comparison study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, Division of Water and Waste Management. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Differences in mean annual base flows for five record sub-periods (1930-42, 1943-62, 1963-69, 1970-79, and 1980-2002) range from -14.9 to 14.6 percent when compared to the values for the period 1930-2002. Differences between mean seasonal base flows and values for the period 1930-2002 are less variable for winter and spring, -11.2 to 11.0 percent, than for summer and fall, -47.0 to 43.6 percent. Mean summer base flows (July-September) and mean monthly base flows for July, August, September, and October are approximately equal, within 7.4 percentage points of mean annual base flow. The mean of each of annual, spring, summer, fall, and winter base flows are approximately equal to the annual 50-percent (standard error of 10.3 percent), 45-percent (error of 14.6 percent), 75-percent (error of 11.8 percent), 55-percent (error of 11.2 percent), and 35-percent duration flows (error of 11.1 percent), respectively. The mean seasonal base flows for spring, summer, fall, and winter are approximately equal to the spring 50- to 55-percent (standard error of 6.8 percent), summer 45- to 50-percent (error of 6.7 percent), fall 45-percent (error of 15.2 percent), and winter 60-percent duration flows (error of 8.5 percent), respectively. Annual and seasonal base flows representative of the period 1930-2002 at unregulated streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged locations in West Virginia can be estimated using previously published

Effect of monthly areal rainfall uncertainty on streamflow simulation

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Ndiritu, J. G.; Mkhize, N.

2017-08-01

Areal rainfall is mostly obtained from point rainfall measurements that are sparsely located and several studies have shown that this results in large areal rainfall uncertainties at the daily time step. However, water resources assessment is often carried out a monthly time step and streamflow simulation is usually an essential component of this assessment. This study set out to quantify monthly areal rainfall uncertainties and assess their effect on streamflow simulation. This was achieved by; i) quantifying areal rainfall uncertainties and using these to generate stochastic monthly areal rainfalls, and ii) finding out how the quality of monthly streamflow simulation and streamflow variability change if stochastic areal rainfalls are used instead of historic areal rainfalls. Tests on monthly rainfall uncertainty were carried out using data from two South African catchments while streamflow simulation was confined to one of them. A non-parametric model that had been applied at a daily time step was used for stochastic areal rainfall generation and the Pitman catchment model calibrated using the SCE-UA optimizer was used for streamflow simulation. 100 randomly-initialised calibration-validation runs using 100 stochastic areal rainfalls were compared with 100 runs obtained using the single historic areal rainfall series. By using 4 rain gauges alternately to obtain areal rainfall, the resulting differences in areal rainfall averaged to 20% of the mean monthly areal rainfall and rainfall uncertainty was therefore highly significant. Pitman model simulations obtained coefficient of efficiencies averaging 0.66 and 0.64 in calibration and validation using historic rainfalls while the respective values using stochastic areal rainfalls were 0.59 and 0.57. Average bias was less than 5% in all cases. The streamflow ranges using historic rainfalls averaged to 29% of the mean naturalised flow in calibration and validation and the respective average ranges using stochastic

Ensemble reconstruction of spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events in France since 1871

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Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Devers, Alexandre; Graff, Benjamin

2017-06-01

The length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France.

Application of AFINCH as a tool for evaluating the effects of streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the southeast Lake Michigan hydrologic subregion

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Koltun, G.F.; Holtschlag, David J.

2010-01-01

Bootstrapping techniques employing random subsampling were used with the AFINCH (Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels) model to gain insights into the effects of variation in streamflow-gaging-network size and composition on the accuracy and precision of streamflow estimates at ungaged locations in the 0405 (Southeast Lake Michigan) hydrologic subregion. AFINCH uses stepwise-regression techniques to estimate monthly water yields from catchments based on geospatial-climate and land-cover data in combination with available streamflow and water-use data. Calculations are performed on a hydrologic-subregion scale for each catchment and stream reach contained in a National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) subregion. Water yields from contributing catchments are multiplied by catchment areas and resulting flow values are accumulated to compute streamflows in stream reaches which are referred to as flow lines. AFINCH imposes constraints on water yields to ensure that observed streamflows are conserved at gaged locations.  Data from the 0405 hydrologic subregion (referred to as Southeast Lake Michigan) were used for the analyses. Daily streamflow data were measured in the subregion for 1 or more years at a total of 75 streamflow-gaging stations during the analysis period which spanned water years 1971–2003. The number of streamflow gages in operation each year during the analysis period ranged from 42 to 56 and averaged 47. Six sets (one set for each censoring level), each composed of 30 random subsets of the 75 streamflow gages, were created by censoring (removing) approximately 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 75 percent of the streamflow gages (the actual percentage of operating streamflow gages censored for each set varied from year to year, and within the year from subset to subset, but averaged approximately the indicated percentages).Streamflow estimates for six flow lines each were aggregated by censoring level, and results were analyzed to assess (a) how the

On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2017-06-01

Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

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Julie A. Vano,; Bradley Udall,; Cayan, Daniel; Jonathan T Overpeck,; Brekke, Levi D.; Das, Tapash; Hartmann, Holly C.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hoerling, Martin P; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morino, Kiyomi; Webb, Robert S.; Werner, Kevin; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2014-01-01

The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.

Streamflow characteristics and benthic invertebrate assemblages in streams across the western United States

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Brasher, Anne M.D.; Konrad, Chris P.; May, Jason T.; Edmiston, C. Scott; Close, Rebecca N.

2010-01-01

Hydrographic characteristics of streamflow, such as high-flow pulses, base flow (background discharge between floods), extreme low flows, and floods, significantly influence aquatic organisms. Streamflow can be described in terms of magnitude, timing, duration, frequency, and variation (hydrologic regime). These characteristics have broad effects on ecosystem productivity, habitat structure, and ultimately on resident fish, invertebrate, and algae communities. Increasing human use of limited water resources has modified hydrologic regimes worldwide. Identifying the most ecologically significant hydrographic characteristics would facilitate the development of water-management strategies.Benthic invertebrates include insects, mollusks (snails and clams), worms, and crustaceans (shrimp) that live on the streambed. Invertebrates play an important role in the food web, consuming other invertebrates and algae and being consumed by fish and birds. Hydrologic alteration associated with land and water use can change the natural hydrologic regime and may affect benthic invertebrate assemblage composition and structure through changes in density of invertebrates or taxa richness (number of different species).This study examined associations between the hydrologic regime and characteristics of benthic invertebrate assemblages across the western United States and developed tools to identify streamflow characteristics that are likely to affect benthic invertebrate assemblages.

Bayesian Models for Streamflow and River Network Reconstruction using Tree Rings

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Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Water systems face non-stationary, dynamically shifting risks due to shifting societal conditions and systematic long-term variations in climate manifesting as quasi-periodic behavior on multi-decadal time scales. Water systems are thus vulnerable to long periods of wet or dry hydroclimatic conditions. Streamflow is a major component of water systems and a primary means by which water is transported to serve ecosystems' and human needs. Thus, our concern is in understanding streamflow variability. Climate variability and impacts on water resources are crucial factors affecting streamflow, and multi-scale variability increases risk to water sustainability and systems. Dam operations are necessary for collecting water brought by streamflow while maintaining downstream ecological health. Rules governing dam operations are based on streamflow records that are woefully short compared to periods of systematic variation present in the climatic factors driving streamflow variability and non-stationarity. We use hierarchical Bayesian regression methods in order to reconstruct paleo-streamflow records for dams within a basin using paleoclimate proxies (e.g. tree rings) to guide the reconstructions. The riverine flow network for the entire basin is subsequently modeled hierarchically using feeder stream and tributary flows. This is a starting point in analyzing streamflow variability and risks to water systems, and developing a scientifically-informed dynamic risk management framework for formulating dam operations and water policies to best hedge such risks. We will apply this work to the Missouri and Delaware River Basins (DRB). Preliminary results of streamflow reconstructions for eight dams in the upper DRB using standard Gaussian regression with regional tree ring chronologies give streamflow records that now span two to two and a half centuries, and modestly smoothed versions of these reconstructed flows indicate physically-justifiable trends in the time series.

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

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McCarthy, Peter M.

2016-04-05

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

Simulation of the Effects of Water Withdrawals, Wastewater Return Flows, and Land-Use Change on Streamflow in the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Science.gov (United States)

Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2007-01-01

. Ratios of long-term (1960?2004) simulated flows with 1996?2001 water use (representing the net effect of withdrawals and wastewater-return flows) to long-term simulated flows with no water use indicated that, for many reaches, 1996?2001 water use did not deplete flows at the 90-percent flow duration substantially compared to flows unaffected by water use. Flows generally were more severely depleted in the reaches that include surface-water supplies for the larger cities in the basin (Kettle and Tatnuck Brooks, Worcester, Mass. water supply; Quinsigamond River, Shrewsbury, Mass. water supply; Crookfall Brook, Woonsocket, R.I. water supply; and Abbott Run, Pawtucket, R.I. water supply). These reaches did not have substantial wastewater-return flows that could offset the effects of the withdrawals. In contrast, wastewater-return flows from the Upper Blackstone Wastewater Treatment Facility in Millbury, Mass. increased flows at the 90-percent flow duration in the main stem of the Blackstone River compared to no-water-use conditions. Under the assumptions used to develop the buildout scenario, nearly all of the new water withdrawals were returned to the Blackstone River Basin at municipal wastewater-treatment plants or on-site septic systems. Consequently, buildout generally had small effects on simulated low flows in the Blackstone River and most of the major tributary streams compared to flows with 1996?2001 water use. To evaluate the effects of water use on flows in the rivers and major tributary streams in the Rhode Island part of the basin in greater detail, the magnitudes of water withdrawals and wastewater-return flows in relation to simulated streamflow were calculated as unique ratios for individual HSPF subbasins, total contributing areas to HSPF subbasins, and total contributing areas to the major tributary streams. For recent conditions (1996?2001 withdrawals and 1995?1999 land use), ratios of average summer (June through September) withdrawals to the l

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized

New Jersey StreamStats: A web application for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Kara M.; Janowicz, Jon A.

2017-08-02

StreamStats is an interactive, map-based web application from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics and watershed characteristics for both gaged and ungaged sites on streams throughout New Jersey. Users can determine flood magnitude and frequency, monthly flow-duration, monthly low-flow frequency statistics, and watershed characteristics for ungaged sites by selecting a point along a stream, or they can obtain this information for streamgages by selecting a streamgage location on the map. StreamStats provides several additional tools useful for water-resources planning and management, as well as for engineering purposes. StreamStats is available for most states and some river basins through a single web portal.Streamflow statistics for water resources professionals include the 1-percent annual chance flood flow (100-year peak flow) used to define flood plain areas and the monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow (M7D10Y) used in water supply management and studies of recreation, wildlife conservation, and wastewater dilution. Additionally, watershed or basin characteristics, including drainage area, percent area forested, and average percent of impervious areas, are commonly used in land-use planning and environmental assessments. These characteristics are easily derived through StreamStats.

Shallow and Deep Groundwater Contributions to Ephemeral Streamflow Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmer, M. A.; McGlynn, B. L.

2016-12-01

Our understanding of streamflow generation processes in low relief, humid landscapes is limited. To address this, we utilized an ephemeral-to-intermittent drainage network in the Piedmont region of the United States to gain new understanding about the drivers of ephemeral streamflow generation, stream-groundwater interactions, and longitudinal expansion and contraction of the stream network. We used hydrometric and chemical data collected within zero through second order catchments to characterize streamflow and overland, shallow soil, and deep subsurface flow across landscape positions. Results showed bi-directionality in stream-groundwater gradients that were dependent on catchment storage state. This led to annual groundwater recharge magnitudes that were similar to annual streamflow. Perched shallow and deep water table contributions shifted dominance with changes in catchment storage state, producing distinct stream hydrograph recession constants. Active channel length versus runoff followed a consistent relationship independent of storage state, but exhibited varying discharge-solute hysteresis directions. Together, our results suggest that temporary streams can act as both important groundwater recharge and discharge locations across the landscape, especially in this region where ephemeral drainage densities are among the highest recorded. Our results also highlight that the internal catchment dynamics that generate temporary streams play an important role in dictating biogeochemical fluxes at the landscape scale.

Estimating 1970-99 average annual groundwater recharge in Wisconsin using streamflow data

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Gebert, Warren A.; Walker, John F.; Kennedy, James L.

2011-01-01

Average annual recharge in Wisconsin for the period 1970-99 was estimated using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations and partial-record sites. Partial-record sites have discharge measurements collected during low-flow conditions. The average annual base flow of a stream divided by the drainage area is a good approximation of the recharge rate; therefore, once average annual base flow is determined recharge can be calculated. Estimates of recharge for nearly 72 percent of the surface area of the State are provided. The results illustrate substantial spatial variability of recharge across the State, ranging from less than 1 inch to more than 12 inches per year. The average basin size for partial-record sites (50 square miles) was less than the average basin size for the gaging stations (305 square miles). Including results for smaller basins reveals a spatial variability that otherwise would be smoothed out using only estimates for larger basins. An error analysis indicates that the techniques used provide base flow estimates with standard errors ranging from 5.4 to 14 percent.

Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling

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A. K. Gain

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs. Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961–2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.

Geologic and climatic controls on streamflow generation processes in a complex eogenetic karst basin

Science.gov (United States)

Vibhava, F.; Graham, W. D.; Maxwell, R. M.

2012-12-01

Streamflow at any given location and time is representative of surface and subsurface contributions from various sources. The ability to fully identify the factors controlling these contributions is key to successfully understanding the transport of contaminants through the system. In this study we developed a fully integrated 3D surface water-groundwater-land surface model, PARFLOW, to evaluate geologic and climatic controls on streamflow generation processes in a complex eogenetic karst basin in North Central Florida. In addition to traditional model evaluation criterion, such as comparing field observations to model simulated streamflow and groundwater elevations, we quantitatively evaluated the model's predictions of surface-groundwater interactions over space and time using a suite of binary end-member mixing models that were developed using observed specific conductivity differences among surface and groundwater sources throughout the domain. Analysis of model predictions showed that geologic heterogeneity exerts a strong control on both streamflow generation processes and land atmospheric fluxes in this watershed. In the upper basin, where the karst aquifer is overlain by a thick confining layer, approximately 92% of streamflow is "young" event flow, produced by near stream rainfall. Throughout the upper basin the confining layer produces a persistent high surficial water table which results in high evapotranspiration, low groundwater recharge and thus negligible "inter-event" streamflow. In the lower basin, where the karst aquifer is unconfined, deeper water tables result in less evapotranspiration. Thus, over 80% of the streamflow is "old" subsurface flow produced by diffuse infiltration through the epikarst throughout the lower basin, and all surface contributions to streamflow originate in the upper confined basin. Climatic variability provides a secondary control on surface-subsurface and land-atmosphere fluxes, producing significant seasonal and

Multi-site Stochastic Simulation of Daily Streamflow with Markov Chain and KNN Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Mathai, J.; Mujumdar, P.

2017-12-01

A key focus of this study is to develop a method which is physically consistent with the hydrologic processes that can capture short-term characteristics of daily hydrograph as well as the correlation of streamflow in temporal and spatial domains. In complex water resource systems, flow fluctuations at small time intervals require that discretisation be done at small time scales such as daily scales. Also, simultaneous generation of synthetic flows at different sites in the same basin are required. We propose a method to equip water managers with a streamflow generator within a stochastic streamflow simulation framework. The motivation for the proposed method is to generate sequences that extend beyond the variability represented in the historical record of streamflow time series. The method has two steps: In step 1, daily flow is generated independently at each station by a two-state Markov chain, with rising limb increments randomly sampled from a Gamma distribution and the falling limb modelled as exponential recession and in step 2, the streamflow generated in step 1 is input to a nonparametric K-nearest neighbor (KNN) time series bootstrap resampler. The KNN model, being data driven, does not require assumptions on the dependence structure of the time series. A major limitation of KNN based streamflow generators is that they do not produce new values, but merely reshuffle the historical data to generate realistic streamflow sequences. However, daily flow generated using the Markov chain approach is capable of generating a rich variety of streamflow sequences. Furthermore, the rising and falling limbs of daily hydrograph represent different physical processes, and hence they need to be modelled individually. Thus, our method combines the strengths of the two approaches. We show the utility of the method and improvement over the traditional KNN by simulating daily streamflow sequences at 7 locations in the Godavari River basin in India.

Selective Tree-ring Models: A Novel Method for Reconstructing Streamflow Using Tree Rings

Science.gov (United States)

Foard, M. B.; Nelson, A. S.; Harley, G. L.

2017-12-01

Surface water is among the most instrumental and vulnerable resources in the Northwest United States (NW). Recent observations show that overall water quantity is declining in streams across the region, while extreme flooding events occur more frequently. Historical streamflow models inform probabilities of extreme flow events (flood or drought) by describing frequency and duration of past events. There are numerous examples of tree-rings being utilized to reconstruct streamflow in the NW. These models confirm that tree-rings are highly accurate at predicting streamflow, however there are many nuances that limit their applicability through time and space. For example, most models predict streamflow from hydrologically altered rivers (e.g. dammed, channelized) which may hinder our ability to predict natural prehistoric flow. They also have a tendency to over/under-predict extreme flow events. Moreover, they often neglect to capture the changing relationships between tree-growth and streamflow over time and space. To address these limitations, we utilized national tree-ring and streamflow archives to investigate the relationships between the growth of multiple coniferous species and free-flowing streams across the NW using novel species-and site-specific streamflow models - a term we coined"selective tree-ring models." Correlation function analysis and regression modeling were used to evaluate the strengths and directions of the flow-growth relationships. Species with significant relationships in the same direction were identified as strong candidates for selective models. Temporal and spatial patterns of these relationships were examined using running correlations and inverse distance weighting interpolation, respectively. Our early results indicate that (1) species adapted to extreme climates (e.g. hot-dry, cold-wet) exhibit the most consistent relationships across space, (2) these relationships weaken in locations with mild climatic variability, and (3) some

TRENDS IN FLOODS AND LOW FLOWS IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPACT OF SPATIAL CORRELATION. (R824992,R826888)

Science.gov (United States)

Trends in flood and low flows in the US were evaluated using a regional average Kendall's S trend test at two spatial scales and over two timeframes. Field significance was assessed using a bootstrap methodology to account for the observed regional cross-correlation of streamflow...

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Mississippi River streamflow measurement techniques at St. Louis, Missouri

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Wastson, Chester C.; Holmes, Robert R.; Biedenham, David S.

2013-01-01

Streamflow measurement techniques of the Mississippi River at St. Louis have changed through time (1866–present). In addition to different methods used for discrete streamflow measurements, the density and range of discrete measurements used to define the rating curve (stage versus streamflow) have also changed. Several authors have utilized published water surface elevation (stage) and streamflow data to assess changes in the rating curve, which may be attributed to be caused by flood control and/or navigation structures. The purpose of this paper is to provide a thorough review of the available flow measurement data and techniques and to assess how a strict awareness of the limitations of the data may affect previous analyses. It is concluded that the pre-1930s discrete streamflow measurement data are not of sufficient accuracy to be compared with modern streamflow values in establishing long-term trends of river behavior.

Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

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Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2000-01-01

convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.

Climate, water use, and land surface transformation in an irrigation intensive watershed - streamflow responses from 1950 through 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Joseph; Zou, Chris B.; Andrews, William J.; Long, James M.; Liang, Ye; Qiao, Lei

2015-01-01

Climatic variability and land surface change have a wide range of effects on streamflow and are often difficult to separate. We analyzed long-term records of climate, land use and land cover, and re-constructed the water budget based on precipitation, groundwater levels, and water use from 1950 through 2010 in the Cimarron–Skeleton watershed and a portion of the Cimarron–Eagle Chief watershed in Oklahoma, an irrigation-intensive agricultural watershed in the Southern Great Plains, USA. Our results show that intensive irrigation through alluvial aquifer withdrawal modifies climatic feedback and alters streamflow response to precipitation. Increase in consumptive water use was associated with decreases in annual streamflow, while returning croplands to non-irrigated grasslands was associated with increases in streamflow. Along with groundwater withdrawal, anthropogenic-induced factors and activities contributed nearly half to the observed variability of annual streamflow. Streamflow was more responsive to precipitation during the period of intensive irrigation between 1965 and 1984 than the period of relatively lower water use between 1985 and 2010. The Cimarron River is transitioning from a historically flashy river to one that is more stable with a lower frequency of both high and low flow pulses, a higher baseflow, and an increased median flow due in part to the return of cropland to grassland. These results demonstrated the interrelationship among climate, land use, groundwater withdrawal and streamflow regime and the potential to design agricultural production systems and adjust irrigation to mitigate impact of increasing climate variability on streamflow in irrigation intensive agricultural watershed.

Simulation of streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Feaster, Toby D.; Golden, Heather E.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Lowery, Mark A.; Conrads, Paul; Bradley, Paul M.

2010-01-01

of model-fit efficiency index, Pearson's correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, the bias, and the mean absolute error. In addition, a number of graphical tools were used to assess how well the models captured the characteristics of the observed data at the Monetta and New Holland streamflow-gaging stations. The graphical tools included temporal plots of simulated and observed daily mean flows, flow-duration curves, single-mass curves, and various residual plots. The results indicated that TOPMODEL and GBMM generally produced simulations that reasonably capture the quantity, variability, and timing of the observed streamflow. For the periods modeled, the total volume of simulated daily mean flows as compared to the total volume of the observed daily mean flow from TOPMODEL was within 1 to 5 percent, and the total volume from GBMM was within 1 to 10 percent. A noticeable characteristic of the simulated hydrographs from both models is the complexity of balancing groundwater recession and flow at the streamgage when flows peak and recede rapidly. However, GBMM results indicate that groundwater recession, which affects the receding limb of the hydrograph, was more difficult to estimate with the spatially explicit curve number approach. Although the purpose of this report is not to directly compare both models, given the characteristics of the McTier Creek watershed and the fact that GBMM uses the spatially explicit curve number approach as compared to the variable-source-area concept in TOPMODEL, GBMM was able to capture the flow characteristics reasonably well.

Evidence of population resistance to extreme low flows in a fluvial-dependent fish species

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Rachel A.; Freeman, Mary C.

2015-01-01

Extreme low streamflows are natural disturbances to aquatic populations. Species in naturally intermittent streams display adaptations that enhance persistence during extreme events; however, the fate of populations in perennial streams during unprecedented low-flow periods is not well-understood. Biota requiring swift-flowing habitats may be especially vulnerable to flow reductions. We estimated the abundance and local survival of a native fluvial-dependent fish species (Etheostoma inscriptum) across 5 years encompassing historic low flows in a sixth-order southeastern USA perennial river. Based on capturemark-recapture data, the study shoal may have acted as a refuge during severe drought, with increased young-of-the-year (YOY) recruitment and occasionally high adult immigration. Contrary to expectations, summer and autumn survival rates (30 days) were not strongly depressed during low-flow periods, despite 25%-80% reductions in monthly discharge. Instead, YOY survival increased with lower minimum discharge and in response to small rain events that increased low-flow variability. Age-1+ fish showed the opposite pattern, with survival decreasing in response to increasing low-flow variability. Results from this population dynamics study of a small fish in a perennial river suggest that fluvial-dependent species can be resistant to extreme flow reductions through enhanced YOY recruitment and high survival

Testing and modelling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity of streamflow processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Wang

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Conventional streamflow models operate under the assumption of constant variance or season-dependent variances (e.g. ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average models for deseasonalized streamflow series and PARMA (Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average models for seasonal streamflow series. However, with McLeod-Li test and Engle's Lagrange Multiplier test, clear evidences are found for the existence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (i.e. the ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effect, a nonlinear phenomenon of the variance behaviour, in the residual series from linear models fitted to daily and monthly streamflow processes of the upper Yellow River, China. It is shown that the major cause of the ARCH effect is the seasonal variation in variance of the residual series. However, while the seasonal variation in variance can fully explain the ARCH effect for monthly streamflow, it is only a partial explanation for daily flow. It is also shown that while the periodic autoregressive moving average model is adequate in modelling monthly flows, no model is adequate in modelling daily streamflow processes because none of the conventional time series models takes the seasonal variation in variance, as well as the ARCH effect in the residuals, into account. Therefore, an ARMA-GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity error model is proposed to capture the ARCH effect present in daily streamflow series, as well as to preserve seasonal variation in variance in the residuals. The ARMA-GARCH error model combines an ARMA model for modelling the mean behaviour and a GARCH model for modelling the variance behaviour of the residuals from the ARMA model. Since the GARCH model is not followed widely in statistical hydrology, the work can be a useful addition in terms of statistical modelling of daily streamflow processes for the hydrological community.

Estimation of low-flow statistics at ungaged sites on streams in the Lower Hudson River Basin, New York, from data in geographic information systems

Science.gov (United States)

Randall, Allan D.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

2017-08-02

A variety of watershed properties available in 2015 from geographic information systems were tested in regression equations to estimate two commonly used statistical indices of the low flow of streams, namely the lowest flows averaged over 7 consecutive days that have a 1 in 10 and a 1 in 2 chance of not being exceeded in any given year (7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows). The equations were based on streamflow measurements in 51 watersheds in the Lower Hudson River Basin of New York during the years 1958–1978, when the number of streamflow measurement sites on unregulated streams was substantially greater than in subsequent years. These low-flow indices are chiefly a function of the area of surficial sand and gravel in the watershed; more precisely, 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows both increase in proportion to the area of sand and gravel deposited by glacial meltwater, whereas 7-day, 2-year low flows also increase in proportion to the area of postglacial alluvium. Both low-flow statistics are also functions of mean annual runoff (a measure of net water input to the watershed from precipitation) and area of swamps and poorly drained soils in or adjacent to surficial sand and gravel (where groundwater recharge is unlikely and riparian water loss to evapotranspiration is substantial). Small but significant refinements in estimation accuracy resulted from the inclusion of two indices of stream geometry, channel slope and length, in the regression equations. Most of the regression analysis was undertaken with the ordinary least squares method, but four equations were replicated by using weighted least squares to provide a more realistic appraisal of the precision of low-flow estimates. The most accurate estimation equations tested in this study explain nearly 84 and 87 percent of the variation in 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows, respectively, with standard errors of 0.032 and 0.050 cubic feet per second per square mile. The equations

Geological controls on isotopic signatures of streamflow: results from a nested catchment experiment in Luxembourg (Europe)

Science.gov (United States)

Pfister, Laurent; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Hissler, Christophe; Martinez-Carreras, Nuria; Gourdol, Laurent; Klaus, Julian; François Iffly, Jean; Barnich, François; Stewart, Mike K.

2014-05-01

Controls of geology and topography on hydrological metrics, like summer low flow (Grant and Tague, 2004) or dynamic storage (Sayama et al., 2011), have been identified in nested catchment experiments. However, most tracer-based studies on streamflow generation have been carried out in small (10 km2) homogenous catchments (Klaus and McDonnell, 2013). The controlling effects of catchment physiography on how catchments store and release water, and how this eventually controls stream isotope behaviour over a large range of scale are poorly understood. Here, we present results from a nested catchment analysis in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg, Europe). Our hydro-climatological network consists of 16 recording streamgauges and 21 pluviographs. Catchment areas range from 0.47 to 285 km2, with clean and mixed combinations of distinct geologies ranging from schists to marls, sandstone, dolomite and limestone. Our objective was to identify geological controls on (i) winter runoff ratios, (ii) maximum storage and (iii) isotopic signatures in streamflow. For each catchment we determined average runoff ratios from winter season precipitation-discharge double-mass curves. Maximum catchment storage was based on the dynamic storage change approach of Sayama et al. (2011). Changes in isotopic signatures of streamflow were documented along individual catchment flow duration curves. We found strong correlations between average winter runoff ratios, maximum storage and the prevailing geological settings. Catchments with impermeable bedrock (e.g. marls or schists) were characterised by small storage potential and high average filling ratios. As a consequence, these catchments also exhibited the highest average runoff ratios. In catchments underlain by permeable bedrock (e.g. sandstone), storage potential was significantly higher and runoff ratios were considerably smaller. The isotopic signatures of streamflow showed large differences between catchments. In catchments dominated by

Estimated monthly streamflows for selected locations on the Kabul and Logar Rivers, Aynak copper, cobalt, and chromium area of interest, Afghanistan, 1951-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Vining, Kevin C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, used the stochastic monthly water-balance model and existing climate data to estimate monthly streamflows for 1951–2010 for selected streamgaging stations located within the Aynak copper, cobalt, and chromium area of interest in Afghanistan. The model used physically based, nondeterministic methods to estimate the monthly volumetric water-balance components of a watershed. A comparison of estimated and recorded monthly streamflows for the streamgaging stations Kabul River at Maidan and Kabul River at Tangi-Saidan indicated that the stochastic water-balance model was able to provide satisfactory estimates of monthly streamflows for high-flow months and low-flow months even though withdrawals for irrigation likely occurred. A comparison of estimated and recorded monthly streamflows for the streamgaging stations Logar River at Shekhabad and Logar River at Sangi-Naweshta also indicated that the stochastic water-balance model was able to provide reasonable estimates of monthly streamflows for the high-flow months; however, for the upstream streamgaging station, the model overestimated monthly streamflows during periods when summer irrigation withdrawals likely occurred. Results from the stochastic water-balance model indicate that the model should be able to produce satisfactory estimates of monthly streamflows for locations along the Kabul and Logar Rivers. This information could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make decisions about surface-water resources for the Aynak copper, cobalt, and chromium area of interest.

Cerebral tissue oxygenation index and superior vena cava blood flow in the very low birth weight infant.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Moran, M

2012-02-01

BACKGROUND: Superior vena cava (SVC) flow assesses blood flow from the upper body, including the brain. Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) provides information on brain perfusion and oxygenation. AIM: To assess the relationship between cerebral tissue oxygenation index (cTOI) and cardiac output measures in the very low birth weight (VLBW) infant in the first day of life. METHODS: A prospective observational cohort study. Neonates with birth weight less than 1500 g (VLBW) were eligible for enrollment. Newborns with congenital heart disease, major congenital malformations and greater than Papile grade1 Intraventricular Haemorrhage on day 1 of life were excluded. Echocardiographic evaluation of SVC flow was performed in the first 24 h of life. Low SVC flow states were defined as a flow less than 40 mL\\/kg\\/min. cTOI was measured using NIRO 200 Hamamatsu. RESULTS: Twenty-seven VLBW neonates had both echocardiography and NIRS performed. The median (range) gestation was 29\\/40 (25 + 3 to 31 + 5 weeks) and median birth weight was 1.2 kg (0.57-1.48 kg). The mean (SD) TOI was 68.1 (7.9)%. The mean (SD) SVC flow was 70.36(39.5) mLs\\/kg\\/min. The correlation coefficient of cerebral tissue oxygenation and SVC flow was r = 0.53, p-value 0.005. There was a poor correlation between right and left ventricular output and cTOI which is not surprising considering the influence of intra- and extracardiac shunts. CONCLUSION: There is a positive relationship between cerebral TOI values and SVC flow in the very low birth infant on day one of life.

Relative contributions of transient and steady state infiltration during ephemeral streamflow

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Blasch, Kyle W.; Ferré, Ty P.A.; Hoffmann, John P.; Fleming, John B.

2006-01-01

Simulations of infiltration during three ephemeral streamflow events in a coarse‐grained alluvial channel overlying a less permeable basin‐fill layer were conducted to determine the relative contribution of transient infiltration at the onset of streamflow to cumulative infiltration for the event. Water content, temperature, and piezometric measurements from 2.5‐m vertical profiles within the alluvial sediments were used to constrain a variably saturated water flow and heat transport model. Simulated and measured transient infiltration rates at the onset of streamflow were about two to three orders of magnitude greater than steady state infiltration rates. The duration of simulated transient infiltration ranged from 1.8 to 20 hours, compared with steady state flow periods of 231 to 307 hours. Cumulative infiltration during the transient period represented 10 to 26% of the total cumulative infiltration, with an average contribution of approximately 18%. Cumulative infiltration error for the simulated streamflow events ranged from 9 to 25%. Cumulative infiltration error for typical streamflow events of about 8 hours in duration in is about 90%. This analysis indicates that when estimating total cumulative infiltration in coarse‐grained ephemeral stream channels, consideration of the transient infiltration at the onset of streamflow will improve predictions of the total volume of infiltration that may become groundwater recharge.

Assessing flow regime alterations in a temporary river – the River Celone case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

De Girolamo Anna Maria

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present an approach to evaluate the hydrological alterations of a temporary river. In these rivers, it is expected that anthropogenic pressures largely modify low-flow components of the flow regime with consequences for aquatic habitat and diversity in invertebrate species. First, by using a simple hydrological index (IARI river segments of the Celone stream (southern Italy whose hydrological regime is significantly influenced by anthropogenic activities have been identified. Hydrological alteration has been further classified through the analysis of two metrics: the degree (Mf and the predictability of dry flow conditions (Sd6. Measured streamflow data were used to calculate the metrics in present conditions (impacted. Given the lack of data from pristine conditions, simulated streamflow time series were used to calculate the metrics in reference conditions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was used to estimate daily natural streamflow. Hydrological alterations associated with water abstractions, point discharges and the presence of a reservoir were assessed by comparing the metrics (Mf, Sd6 before and after the impacts. The results show that the hydrological regime of the river segment located in the upper part of the basin is slightly altered, while the regime of the river segment downstream of the reservoir is heavily altered. This approach is intended for use with ecological metrics in defining the water quality status and in planning streamflow management activities.

Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

van Heeswijk, Marijke

2006-01-01

historical monthly mean unregulated streamflow based on reservoir outflows and storage changes were used as a surrogate for the missing data and to calibrate and test the model. The estimated unregulated streamflows were corrected for evaporative losses from Conconully Reservoir (about 1 ft3/s) and ground-water losses from the basin (about 2 ft3/s). The total of the corrections was about 9 percent of the mean uncorrected streamflow of 32.2 ft3/s (23,300 acre-ft/yr) for water years 1949-96. For the calibration period, the basinwide mean annual evapotranspiration was simulated to be 19.1 inches, or about 83 percent of the mean annual precipitation of 23.1 inches. Model calibration and testing indicated that the daily streamflows simulated using the precipitation-runoff model should be used only to analyze historical and forecasted annual mean and April-July mean streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Because of the paucity of model input data and uncertainty in the estimated unregulated streamflows, the model is not adequately calibrated and tested to estimate monthly mean streamflows for individual months, such as during low-flow periods, or for shorter periods such as during peak flows. No data were available to test the accuracy of simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek. As a result, simulated streamflows for lower Salmon Creek should be used with caution. For the calibration period (water years 1950-89), both the simulated mean annual streamflow and the simulated mean April-July streamflow compared well with the estimated uncorrected unregulated streamflow (UUS) and corrected unregulated streamflow (CUS). The simulated mean annual streamflow exceeded UUS by 5.9 percent and was less than CUS by 2.7 percent. Similarly, the simulated mean April-July streamflow exceeded UUS by 1.8 percent and was less than CUS by 3.1 percent. However, streamflow was significantly undersimulated during the low-flow, baseflow-dominated months of November through F

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

Science.gov (United States)

Esralew, Rachel A.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2010-01-01

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

Science.gov (United States)

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

State updating and calibration period selection to improve dynamic monthly streamflow forecasts for an environmental flow management application

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, Matthew S.; McInerney, David; Humphrey, Greer; Thyer, Mark A.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Kavetski, Dmitri

2018-02-01

Monthly to seasonal streamflow forecasts provide useful information for a range of water resource management and planning applications. This work focuses on improving such forecasts by considering the following two aspects: (1) state updating to force the models to match observations from the start of the forecast period, and (2) selection of a shorter calibration period that is more representative of the forecast period, compared to a longer calibration period traditionally used. The analysis is undertaken in the context of using streamflow forecasts for environmental flow water management of an open channel drainage network in southern Australia. Forecasts of monthly streamflow are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model combined with a post-processor error model for uncertainty analysis. This model set-up is applied to two catchments, one with stronger evidence of non-stationarity than the other. A range of metrics are used to assess different aspects of predictive performance, including reliability, sharpness, bias and accuracy. The results indicate that, for most scenarios and metrics, state updating improves predictive performance for both observed rainfall and forecast rainfall sources. Using the shorter calibration period also improves predictive performance, particularly for the catchment with stronger evidence of non-stationarity. The results highlight that a traditional approach of using a long calibration period can degrade predictive performance when there is evidence of non-stationarity. The techniques presented can form the basis for operational monthly streamflow forecasting systems and provide support for environmental decision-making.

Retrospective evaluation of continental-scale streamflow nudging with WRF-Hydro National Water Model V1

Science.gov (United States)

McCreight, J. L.; Wu, Y.; Gochis, D.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.; Cosgrove, B.; Cui, Z.; Oubeidillah, A.; Briar, D.

2016-12-01

The streamflow (discharge) data assimilation capability in version 1 of the National Water Model (NWM; a WRF-Hydro configuration) is applied and evaluated in a 5-year (2011-2015) retrospective study using NLDAS2 forcing data over CONUS. This talk will describe the NWM V1 operational nudging (continuous-time) streamflow data assimilation approach, its motivation, and its relationship to this retrospective evaluation. Results from this study will provide a an analysis-based (not forecast-based) benchmark for streamflow DA in the NWM. The goal of the assimilation is to reduce discharge bias and improve channel initial conditions for discharge forecasting (though forecasts are not considered here). The nudging method assimilates discharge observations at nearly 7,000 USGS gages (at frequency up to 1/15 minutes) to produce a (univariate) discharge reanalysis (i.e. this is the only variable affected by the assimilation). By withholding 14% nested gages throughout CONUS in a separate validation run, we evaluate the downstream impact of assimilation at upstream gages. Based on this sample, we estimate the skill of the streamflow reanalysis at ungaged locations and examine factors governing the skill of the assimilation. Comparison of assimilation and open-loop runs is presented. Performance of DA under both high and low flow regimes and selected flooding events is examined. Preliminary evaluation of nudging parameter sensitivity and its relationship to flow regime will be presented.

Land Use Change Increases Streamflow Across the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, M. C.; Lopes, A. V.; Cohn, A.; Larsen, L. G.; Thompson, S. E.

2018-04-01

Nearly half of recent decades' global forest loss occurred in the Amazon and Cerrado (tropical savanna) biomes of Brazil, known as the arc of deforestation. Despite prior analysis in individual river basins, a generalizable empirical understanding of the effect of deforestation on streamflow across this region is lacking. We frame land use change in Brazil as a natural experiment and draw on in situ and remote sensing evidence in 324 river basins covering more than 3 × 106 km2 to estimate streamflow changes caused by deforestation and agricultural development between 1950 and 2013. Deforestation increased dry season low flow by between 4 and 10 percentage points (relative to the forested condition), corresponding to a regional- and time-averaged rate of increase in specific streamflow of 1.29 mm/year2, equivalent to a 4.08 km3/year2 increase, assuming a stationary climate. In conjunction with rainfall and temperature variations, the net (observed) average increase in streamflow over the same period was 0.76 mm/year2, or 2.41 km3/year2. Thus, net increases in regional streamflow in the past half century are 58% of those that would have been experienced with deforestation given a stationary climate. This study uses a causal empirical analysis approach novel to the water sciences to verify the regional applicability of prior basin-scale studies, provides a proof of concept for the use of observational causal identification methods in the water sciences, and demonstrates that deforestation masks the streamflow-reducing effects of climate change in this region.

Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hisdal, Hege; Holmqvist, Erik; Jonsdottir, Jona Finndis; Jonsson, Pall; Kuusisto, Esko; Lindstroem, Goeran; Roald, Lars A.

2010-01-15

Climate change studies traditionally include elaboration of possible scenarios for the future and attempts to detect a climate change signal in historical data. This study focuses on the latter. A pan-Nordic dataset of more than 160 streamflow records was analysed to detect spatial and temporal changes in streamflow. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to study changes in annual and seasonal streamflow as well as floods and droughts for three periods: 1961-2000, 1941-2002 and 1920-2002. The period analysed and the selection of stations influenced the regional patterns found, but the overall picture was that trends towards increased streamflow were dominating for annual values and the winter and spring seasons. Trends in summer flow highly depended on the period analysed whereas no trend was found for the autumn season. A signal towards earlier snowmelt floods was clear and a tendency towards more severe summer droughts was found in southern Norway. A qualitative comparison of the findings to available streamflow scenarios for the region showed that the strongest trends found are coherent with changes expected in the scenario period, for example increased winter discharge and earlier snowmelt floods. However, there are also expected changes that are not reflected in the trends, such as the expected increase in autumn discharge in Norway. It can be concluded that the observed temperature increase has clearly affected the streamflow in the Nordic countries. These changes correspond well with the estimated consequences of a projected temperature increase. The effect of the observed and projected precipitation increase on streamflow is less clear.(Author)

Geology, Streamflow, and Water Chemistry of the Talufofo Stream Basin, Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Izuka, Scot K.; Ewart, Charles J.

1995-01-01

A study of the geology, streamflow, and water chemistry of Talufofo Stream Basin, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was undertaken to determine the flow characteristics of Talufofo Stream and the relation to the geology of the drainage basin. The Commonwealth government is exploring the feasibility of using water from Talufofo Stream to supplement Saipan's stressed municipal water supply. Streamflow records from gaging stations on the principal forks of Talufofo Stream indicate that peak streamflows and long-term average flow are higher at the South Fork gaging station than at the Middle Fork gaging station because the drainage area of the South Fork gaging station is larger, but persistent base flow from ground-water discharge during dry weather is greater in the Middle Fork gaging station. The sum of the average flows at the Middle Fork and South Fork gaging stations, plus an estimate of the average flow at a point in the lower reaches of the North Fork, is about 2.96 cubic feet per second or 1.91 million gallons per day. Although this average represents the theoretical maximum long-term draft rate possible from the Talufofo Stream Basin if an adequate reservoir can be built, the actual amount of surface water available will be less because of evaporation, leaks, induced infiltration, and reservoir-design constraints. Base-flow characteristics, such as stream seepage and spring discharge, are related to geology of the basin. Base flow in the Talufofo Stream Basin originates as discharge from springs near the base of limestones located in the headwaters of Talufofo Stream, flows over low-permeability volcanic rocks in the middle reaches, and seeps back into the high-permeability limestones in the lower reaches. Water sampled from Talufofo Stream during base flow had high dissolved-calcium concentrations (between 35 and 98 milligrams per liter), characteristic of water from a limestone aquifer. Concentrations of potassium, sodium, and chloride

Simulation of groundwater flow and streamflow depletion in the Branch Brook, Merriland River, and parts of the Mousam River watersheds in southern Maine

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Martha G.; Locke, Daniel B.

2015-01-01

Watersheds of three streams, the Mousam River, Branch Brook, and Merriland River in southeastern Maine were investigated from 2010 through 2013 under a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Maine Geological Survey. The Branch Brook watershed previously had been deemed “at risk” by the Maine Geological Survey because of the proportionally large water withdrawals compared to estimates of the in-stream flow requirements for habitat protection. The primary groundwater withdrawals in the study area include a water-supply well in the headwaters of the system and three water-supply wells in the coastal plain near the downstream end of the system. A steady-state groundwater flow model was used to understand the movement of water within the system, to evaluate the water budget and the effect of groundwater withdrawals on streamflows, and to understand streamflow depletion in relation to the State of Maine’s requirements to maintain in-stream flows for habitat protection.

Climate and terrain factors explaining streamflow response and recession in Australian catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. I. J. M. van Dijk

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Daily streamflow data were analysed to assess which climate and terrain factors best explain streamflow response in 183 Australian catchments. Assessed descriptors of catchment response included the parameters of fitted baseflow models, and baseflow index (BFI, average quick flow and average baseflow derived by baseflow separation. The variation in response between catchments was compared with indicators of catchment climate, morphology, geology, soils and land use. Spatial coherence in the residual unexplained variation was investigated using semi-variogram techniques. A linear reservoir model (one parameter; recession coefficient produced baseflow estimates as good as those obtained using a non-linear reservoir (two parameters and for practical purposes was therefore considered an appropriate balance between simplicity and explanatory performance. About a third (27–34% of the spatial variation in recession coefficients and BFI was explained by catchment climate indicators, with another 53% of variation being spatially correlated over distances of 100–150 km, probably indicative of substrate characteristics not captured by the available soil and geology data. The shortest recession half-times occurred in the driest catchments and were attributed to intermittent occurrence of fast-draining (possibly perched groundwater. Most (70–84% of the variation in average baseflow and quick flow was explained by rainfall and climate characteristics; another 20% of variation was spatially correlated over distances of 300–700 km, possibly reflecting a combination of terrain and climate factors. It is concluded that catchment streamflow response can be predicted quite well on the basis of catchment climate alone. The prediction of baseflow recession response should be improved further if relevant substrate properties were identified and measured.

Controls on streamflow intermittence in the Colorado Front Range

Science.gov (United States)

Kampf, S. K.; Puntenney, K.; Martin, C.; Weber, R.; Gerlich, J.; Hammond, J. C.; Lefsky, M. A.

2017-12-01

Intermittent streams comprise more than 60% of the channel length in semiarid northern Colorado, yet little is known about their flow magnitude and timing. We used field surveys, stream sensors, and remote sensing to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of streamflow intermittence in the Cache la Poudre basin in 2016-2017. To evaluate potential controls on streamflow intermittence, we delineated the drainage area to each monitored point and quantified the catchment's mean precipitation, temperature, snow persistence, slope, aspect, vegetation type, soil type, and bedrock geology. During the period of study, most streams below 2500 m elevation and drainage areas >1 km2 had perennial flow, whereas nearly all streams with drainage areas <1 km2 had intermittent flow. For the high elevation intermittent streams, stream locations often differed substantially from the locations mapped in standard GIS data products. Initial analyses have identified no clearly quantifiable controls on flow duration of high elevation streams, but field observations indicate subsurface flow paths are important contributors to surface streams.

Spawning chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass during benign streamflow conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

We documented the nesting chronology, nest site selection and nest success of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in an upstream (4th order) and downstream (5th order) reach of Baron Fork Creek, Oklahoma. Males started nesting in mid-Apr. when water temperatures increased to 16.9 C upstream, and in late-Apr. when temperatures increased to 16.2 C downstream. Streamflows were low (77% upstream to 82% downstream of mean Apr. streamflow, and 12 and 18% of meanjun. streamflow; 47 and 55 y of record), and decreased throughout the spawning period. Larger males nested first upstream, as has been observed in other populations, but not downstream. Upstream, progeny in 62 of 153 nests developed to swim-up stage. Downstream, progeny in 31 of 73 nests developed to swim-up. Nesting densities upstream (147/km) and downstream (100/km) were both higher than any densities previously reported. Males selected nest sites with intermediate water depths, low water velocity and near cover, behavior that is typical of smallmouth bass. Documented nest failures resulted from human disturbance, angling, and longear sunfish predation. Logistic exposure models showed that water velocity at the nest was negatively related and length of the guarding male was positively related to nest success upstream. Male length and number of degree days were both positively related to nest success downstream. Our results, and those of other studies, suggest that biological factors account for most nest failures during benign (stable, low flow) streamflow conditions, whereas nest failures attributed to substrate mobility or nest abandonment dominate when harsh streamflow conditions (spring floods) coincide with the spawning season.

Simulated Effects of Year 2030 Water-Use and Land-Use Changes on Streamflow near the Interstate-495 Corridor, Assabet and Upper Charles River Basins, Eastern Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Carl S.; Desimone, Leslie A.; Weiskel, Peter K.

2008-01-01

decreased less than 6.5 percent from basecase streamflows in all subbasins for all scenarios. The simulations showed similar effects in the Upper Charles River Basin, but increased water use contributed to decreased simulated streamflow in most subbasins. Simulated changes in March streamflows for 2030 in the Upper Charles River Basin were within +- 6 percent of the basecase for all scenarios and subbasins. Percentage decreases in simulated September streamflows for 2030 were greater than in March but less than the September decreases that resulted for some subbasins in the Assabet River Basin. Only two subbasins of the Upper Charles River Basin had projected decreases greater than 5 percent. In the Mill River subbasin, the decrease was 11 percent, and in the Mine Brook subbasin, 6.6 percent. Changes in water use and wastewater return flow generally were found to have the greatest effect in the summer months when streamflow and aquifer recharge rates are low and water use is high. September increases in main-stem streamflow of both basins were due mainly to increased discharge of treated effluent from wastewater-treatment facilities on the main-stem rivers. In the Assabet River Basin, wastewater-treatment-facility discharge became a smaller proportion of total streamflow with distance downstream. In contrast, wastewater-treatment facility discharge in the Upper Charles River Basin became a greater proportion of streamflow with distance downstream. The effects of sewer-line extension and low-impact development on streamflows in two different subbasins of the Assabet River Basin also were simulated. The result of extending sewer lines with a corresponding decrease in septic-system return flow caused September streamflows to decrease as much as 15 percent in the Fort Pond Brook subbasin. The effect of low-impact development was simulated in the Hop Brook subbasin in areas projected for commercial development. In this simulation, the greater the area where low-i

Streamflow in the upper Santa Cruz River basin, Santa Cruz and Pima Counties, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Condes de la Torre, Alberto

1970-01-01

Streamflow records obtained in the upper Santa Cruz River basin of southern Arizona, United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico, have been analyzed to aid in the appraisal of the surface-water resources of the area. Records are available for 15 sites, and the length of record ranges from 60 years for the gaging station on the Santa .Cruz River at Tucson to 6 years for Pantano Wash near Vail. The analysis provides information on flow duration, low-flow frequency magnitude, flood-volume frequency and magnitude, and storage requirements to maintain selected draft rates. Flood-peak information collected from the gaging stations has been projected on a regional basis from which estimates of flood magnitude and frequency may be made for any site in the basin. Most streams in the 3,503-square-mile basin are ephemeral. Ground water sustains low flows only at Santa Cruz River near Nogales, Sonoita Creek near Patagonia, and Pantano Wash near Vail. Elsewhere, flow occurs only in direct response to precipitation. The median number of days per year in which there is no flow ranges from 4 at Sonoita Creek near Patagonia to 335 at Rillito Creek near Tomson. The streamflow is extremely variable from year to year, and annual flows have a coefficient of variation close to or exceeding unity at most stations. Although the amount of flow in the basin is small most of the time, the area is subject to floods. Most floods result from high-intensity precipitation caused by thunderstorms during the period ,July to September. Occasionally, when snowfall at the lower altitudes is followed by rain, winter floods produce large volumes of flow.

Viscosity changes of riparian water controls diurnal fluctuations of stream-flow and DOC concentration

Science.gov (United States)

Schwab, Michael; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus

2015-04-01

Diurnal fluctuations in stream-flow are commonly explained as being triggered by the daily evapotranspiration cycle in the riparian zone, leading to stream flow minima in the afternoon. While this trigger effect must necessarily be constrained by the extent of the growing season of vegetation, we here show evidence of daily stream flow maxima in the afternoon in a small headwater stream during the dormant season. We hypothesize that the afternoon maxima in stream flow are induced by viscosity changes of riparian water that is caused by diurnal temperature variations of the near surface groundwater in the riparian zone. The patterns were observed in the Weierbach headwater catchment in Luxembourg. The catchment is covering an area of 0.45 km2, is entirely covered by forest and is dominated by a schistous substratum. DOC concentration at the outlet of the catchment was measured with the field deployable UV-Vis spectrometer spectro::lyser (scan Messtechnik GmbH) with a high frequency of 15 minutes over several months. Discharge was measured with an ISCO 4120 Flow Logger. During the growing season, stream flow shows a frequently observed diurnal pattern with discharge minima in the afternoon. During the dormant season, a long dry period with daily air temperature amplitudes of around 10 ° C occurred in March and April 2014, with discharge maxima in the afternoon. The daily air temperature amplitude led to diurnal variations in the water temperature of the upper 10 cm of the riparian zone. Higher riparian water temperatures cause a decrease in water viscosity and according to the Hagen-Poiseuille equation, the volumetric flow rate is inversely proportional to viscosity. Based on the Hagen-Poiseuille equation and the viscosity changes of water, we calculated higher flow rates of near surface groundwater through the riparian zone into the stream in the afternoon which explains the stream flow maxima in the afternoon. With the start of the growing season, the viscosity

Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal adjustment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Liu, Y.; Koren, V.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

2012-01-01

State updating of distributed rainfall-runoff models via streamflow assimilation is subject to overfitting because large dimensionality of the state space of the model may render the assimilation problem seriously under-determined. To examine the issue in the context of operational hydrology, we carry out a set of real-world experiments in which streamflow data is assimilated into gridded Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and kinematic-wave routing models of the US National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) with the variational data assimilation technique. Study basins include four basins in Oklahoma and five basins in Texas. To assess the sensitivity of data assimilation performance to dimensionality reduction in the control vector, we used nine different spatiotemporal adjustment scales, where state variables are adjusted in a lumped, semi-distributed, or distributed fashion and biases in precipitation and potential evaporation (PE) are adjusted hourly, 6-hourly, or kept time-invariant. For each adjustment scale, three different streamflow assimilation scenarios are explored, where streamflow observations at basin interior points, at the basin outlet, or at both interior points and the outlet are assimilated. The streamflow assimilation experiments with nine different basins show that the optimum spatiotemporal adjustment scale varies from one basin to another and may be different for streamflow analysis and prediction in all of the three streamflow assimilation scenarios. The most preferred adjustment scale for seven out of nine basins is found to be the distributed, hourly scale, despite the fact that several independent validation results at this adjustment scale indicated the occurrence of overfitting. Basins with highly correlated interior and outlet flows tend to be less sensitive to the adjustment scale and could benefit more from streamflow assimilation. In comparison to outlet flow assimilation, interior flow

SWToolbox: A surface-water tool-box for statistical analysis of streamflow time series

Science.gov (United States)

Kiang, Julie E.; Flynn, Kate; Zhai, Tong; Hummel, Paul; Granato, Gregory

2018-03-07

This report is a user guide for the low-flow analysis methods provided with version 1.0 of the Surface Water Toolbox (SWToolbox) computer program. The software combines functionality from two software programs—U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SWSTAT and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) DFLOW. Both of these programs have been used primarily for computation of critical low-flow statistics. The main analysis methods are the computation of hydrologic frequency statistics such as the 7-day minimum flow that occurs on average only once every 10 years (7Q10), computation of design flows including biologically based flows, and computation of flow-duration curves and duration hydrographs. Other annual, monthly, and seasonal statistics can also be computed. The interface facilitates retrieval of streamflow discharge data from the USGS National Water Information System and outputs text reports for a record of the analysis. Tools for graphing data and screening tests are available to assist the analyst in conducting the analysis.

Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nilsson, P.; Uvo, C.B.; Landman, W.A.

2008-01-01

flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south......A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring...

The cumulative effects of forest disturbance and climate variability on streamflow components in a large forest-dominated watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qiang; Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang; Liu, Wenfei; Giles-Hansen, Krysta; Wang, Yi

2018-02-01

Assessing how forest disturbance and climate variability affect streamflow components is critical for watershed management, ecosystem protection, and engineering design. Previous studies have mainly evaluated the effects of forest disturbance on total streamflow, rarely with attention given to its components (e.g., base flow and surface runoff), particularly in large watersheds (>1000 km2). In this study, the Upper Similkameen River watershed (1810 km2), an international watershed situated between Canada and the USA, was selected to examine how forest disturbance and climate variability interactively affect total streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff. Baseflow was separated using a combination of the recursive digital filter method and conductivity mass balance method. Time series analysis and modified double mass curves were then employed to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of forest disturbance and climate variability to each streamflow component. Our results showed that average annual baseflow and baseflow index (baseflow/streamflow) were 113.3 ± 35.6 mm year-1 and 0.27 for 1954-2013, respectively. Forest disturbance increased annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff of 27.7 ± 13.7 mm, 7.4 ± 3.6 mm, and 18.4 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 27.0 ± 23.0%, 29.2 ± 23.1%, and 25.7 ± 23.4%, respectively. In contrast, climate variability decreased them by 74.9 ± 13.7 mm, 17.9 ± 3.6 mm, and 53.3 ± 12.9 mm, respectively, with its relative contributions to the changes in respective streamflow components being 73.0 ± 23.0%, 70.8 ± 23.1% and 73.1 ± 23.4%, respectively. Despite working in opposite ways, the impacts of climate variability on annual streamflow, baseflow, and surface runoff were of a much greater magnitude than forest disturbance impacts. This study has important implications for the protection of aquatic habitat, engineering design, and

Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modeling heteroscedastic residual errors

Science.gov (United States)

McInerney, David; Thyer, Mark; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lerat, Julien; Kuczera, George

2017-03-01

Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. This study focuses on approaches for representing error heteroscedasticity with respect to simulated streamflow, i.e., the pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. We evaluate eight common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter λ) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and the United States, and two lumped hydrological models. Performance is quantified using predictive reliability, precision, and volumetric bias metrics. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modeling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with λ of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (λ = 0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Paradoxically, calibration of λ is often counterproductive: in perennial catchments, it tends to overfit low flows at the expense of abysmal precision in high flows. The log-sinh transformation is dominated by the simpler Pareto optimal schemes listed above. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

Effects of groundwater levels and headwater wetlands on streamflow in the Charlie Creek basin, Peace River watershed, west-central Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, T.M.; Sacks, L.A.; Hughes, J.D.

2010-01-01

storage, rainfall-runoff processes, and groundwater-level differences in the upper basin allow it to generate approximately half of the streamflow from the Charlie Creek basin. Therefore, future development in the upper basin that would alter the hydraulic connectivity of wetlands during high flow conditions or expand recharging groundwater conditions could substantially affect streamflow in Charlie Creek. LIDAR (Light detection and ranging) based topographic maps and integrated modeling results were used to quantify the water stored in wetlands and other topographic depressions, and to describe the network of shallow stream channels connecting wetlands to Charlie Creek and its tributaries over distances of several thousand feet. Peak flows at all but one streamflow station were underpredicted in MIKE SHE simulations, possibly because the hydraulics of surface channels connecting wetlands to stream channels were not explicitly simulated in the model. Explicitly simulating the smaller channels connecting wetlands and stream channels should improve the ability of future watershed models to simulate peak flows in streams with headwater wetlands. The runoff potential was greater in the lower half of the Charlie Creek basin than in the upper half, and the streambed of Charlie Creek had greater potential to both directly gain streamflow from groundwater and lose streamflow to groundwater. Charlie Creek is more incised into the surficial aquifer in the lower basin than in the upper basin, and the streambed intersects the top of the intermediate aquifer system at two known locations. Groundwater levels in the intermediate aquifer system varied widely in the lower half of the basin from artesian conditions inducing upward flow toward the surficial aquifer and streams, to recharging conditions allowing downward flow and stream leakage. Recharge areas were greatest in May 2004 when rainfall was at a seasonal low and irrigation pumping was at a seasonal high. Recharge conditions

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Morino, Kiyomi; McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.

2016-01-01

This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.

Streamflow disaggregation: a nonlinear deterministic approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Sivakumar

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This study introduces a nonlinear deterministic approach for streamflow disaggregation. According to this approach, the streamflow transformation process from one scale to another is treated as a nonlinear deterministic process, rather than a stochastic process as generally assumed. The approach follows two important steps: (1 reconstruction of the scalar (streamflow series in a multi-dimensional phase-space for representing the transformation dynamics; and (2 use of a local approximation (nearest neighbor method for disaggregation. The approach is employed for streamflow disaggregation in the Mississippi River basin, USA. Data of successively doubled resolutions between daily and 16 days (i.e. daily, 2-day, 4-day, 8-day, and 16-day are studied, and disaggregations are attempted only between successive resolutions (i.e. 2-day to daily, 4-day to 2-day, 8-day to 4-day, and 16-day to 8-day. Comparisons between the disaggregated values and the actual values reveal excellent agreements for all the cases studied, indicating the suitability of the approach for streamflow disaggregation. A further insight into the results reveals that the best results are, in general, achieved for low embedding dimensions (2 or 3 and small number of neighbors (less than 50, suggesting possible presence of nonlinear determinism in the underlying transformation process. A decrease in accuracy with increasing disaggregation scale is also observed, a possible implication of the existence of a scaling regime in streamflow.

On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.

2018-01-01

Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.

Hydrologic Conditions that Influence Streamflow Losses in a Karst Region of the Upper Peace River, Polk County, Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Metz, P.A.; Lewelling, B.R.

2009-01-01

The upper Peace River from Bartow to Fort Meade, Florida, is described as a groundwater recharge area, reflecting a reversal from historical groundwater discharge patterns that existed prior to the 1950s. The upper Peace River channel and floodplain are characterized by extensive karst development, with numerous fractures, crevasses, and sinks that have been eroded in the near-surface and underlying carbonate bedrock. With the reversal in groundwater head gradients, river water is lost to the underlying groundwater system through these karst features. An investigation was conducted to evaluate the hydrologic conditions that influence streamflow losses in the karst region of the upper Peace River. The upper Peace River is located in a basin that has been altered substantially by phosphate mining and increases in groundwater use. These alterations have changed groundwater flow patterns and caused streamflow declines through time. Hydrologic factors that have had the greatest influence on streamflow declines in the upper Peace River include the lowering of the potentiometric surfaces of the intermediate aquifer system and Upper Floridan aquifer beneath the riverbed elevation due to below-average rainfall (droughts), increases in groundwater use, and the presence of numerous karst features in the low-water channel and floodplain that enhance the loss of streamflow. Seepage runs conducted along the upper Peace River, from Bartow to Fort Meade, indicate that the greatest streamflow losses occurred along an approximate 2-mile section of the river beginning about 1 mile south of the Peace River at Bartow gaging station. Along the low-water and floodplain channel of this 2-mile section, there are about 10 prominent karst features that influence streamflow losses. Losses from the individual karst features ranged from 0.22 to 16 cubic feet per second based on measurements made between 2002 and 2007. The largest measured flow loss for all the karst features was about 50 cubic

Streamflow and water-quality data for Little Clearfield Creek basin, Clearfield County, Pennsylvania, December 1987-November 1988. Open File Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostelnik, K.M.; Durlin, R.R.

1989-01-01

Streamflow and water-quality data were collected throughout the Little Clearfield Creek basin, Clearfield County, Pennsylvania, from December 1987 through November 1988, to determine the existing quality of surface water over a range of hydrologic conditions. The data will assist the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources during its review of coal-mine permit applications. A water-quality station near the mouth of Little Clearfield Creek provided continuous-record of stream stage, pH, specific conductance, and water temperature. Monthly water-quality samples collected at the station were analyzed for total and dissolved metals, nutrients, major cations, and suspended-sediment concentrations. Seventeen partial-record sites, located throughout the basin, were similarly sampled four times during the study. Streamflow and water-quality data obtained at these sites during a winter base flow, a spring storm event, a low summer base flow, and a more moderate summer base flow also are presented

Compilation of streamflow statistics calculated from daily mean streamflow data collected during water years 1901–2015 for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages

Science.gov (United States)

Granato, Gregory E.; Ries, Kernell G.; Steeves, Peter A.

2017-10-16

Streamflow statistics are needed by decision makers for many planning, management, and design activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats Web application provides convenient access to streamflow statistics for many streamgages by accessing the underlying StreamStatsDB database. In 2016, non-interpretive streamflow statistics were compiled for streamgages located throughout the Nation and stored in StreamStatsDB for use with StreamStats and other applications. Two previously published USGS computer programs that were designed to help calculate streamflow statistics were updated to better support StreamStats as part of this effort. These programs are named “GNWISQ” (Get National Water Information System Streamflow (Q) files), updated to version 1.1.1, and “QSTATS” (Streamflow (Q) Statistics), updated to version 1.1.2.Statistics for 20,438 streamgages that had 1 or more complete years of record during water years 1901 through 2015 were calculated from daily mean streamflow data; 19,415 of these streamgages were within the conterminous United States. About 89 percent of the 20,438 streamgages had 3 or more years of record, and about 65 percent had 10 or more years of record. Drainage areas of the 20,438 streamgages ranged from 0.01 to 1,144,500 square miles. The magnitude of annual average streamflow yields (streamflow per square mile) for these streamgages varied by almost six orders of magnitude, from 0.000029 to 34 cubic feet per second per square mile. About 64 percent of these streamgages did not have any zero-flow days during their available period of record. The 18,122 streamgages with 3 or more years of record were included in the StreamStatsDB compilation so they would be available via the StreamStats interface for user-selected streamgages. All the statistics are available in a USGS ScienceBase data release.

Design of Environmental Flows Below Diversion Hydropower Dams: Is There Benefit to Advanced Streamflow Prediction in Sparse Data Landscapes?

Science.gov (United States)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2017-12-01

Diversion hydropower has been shown to significantly alter river flow regimes by dewatering diversion bypass reaches. Data scarcity is one of the foremost challenges to establishing environmental flow regimes below diversion hydropower dams, especially in regions of sparse hydro-meteorological observation. Herein, we test two prediction strategies for generating daily flows in rivers developed with diversion hydropower: a catchment similarity model, and a rainfall-runoff model selected by multi-objective optimization based on soft data. While both methods are designed for ungauged rivers embedded within large regions of sparse hydrologic observation, one is more complex and computationally-intensive. The objective of this study is to assess the benefit of using complex modeling tools in data-sparse landscapes to support design of environmental flow regimes. Models were tested in gauged catchments and then used to simulate a 28-year record of daily flows in 32 ungauged rivers. After perturbing flows with the hydropower diversion, we detect alteration using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) metrics and compare outcomes of the two modeling approaches. The catchment similarity model simulates low flows well (Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) = 0.91), but poorly represents moderate to high flows (overall NSE = 0.25). The multi-objective rainfall-runoff model performs well overall (NSE = 0.72). Both models agree that flow magnitudes and variability consistently decrease following diversion as temporally-dynamic flows are replaced by static minimal flows. Mean duration of events sustained below the pre-diversion Q75 and mean hydrograph rise and fall rates increase. While we see broad areas of agreement, significant effects and thresholds vary between models, particularly in the representation of moderate flows. Thus, use of simplified streamflow models may bias detected alterations or inadequately characterize pre-regulation flow regimes, providing inaccurate

Watershed-scale modeling of streamflow change in incised montane meadows

Science.gov (United States)

Essaid, Hedeff I.; Hill, Barry R.

2014-01-01

Land use practices have caused stream channel incision and water table decline in many montane meadows of the Western United States. Incision changes the magnitude and timing of streamflow in water supply source watersheds, a concern to resource managers and downstream water users. The hydrology of montane meadows under natural and incised conditions was investigated using watershed simulation for a range of hydrologic conditions. The results illustrate the interdependence between: watershed and meadow hydrology; bedrock and meadow aquifers; and surface and groundwater flow through the meadow for the modeled scenarios. During the wet season, stream incision resulted in less overland flow and interflow and more meadow recharge causing a net decrease in streamflow and increase in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. During the dry season, incision resulted in less meadow evapotranspiration and more groundwater discharge to the stream causing a net increase in streamflow and a decrease in groundwater storage relative to natural meadow conditions. In general, for a given meadow setting, the magnitude of change in summer streamflow and long-term change in watershed groundwater storage due to incision will depend on the combined effect of: reduced evapotranspiration in the eroded meadow; induced groundwater recharge; replenishment of dry season groundwater storage depletion in meadow and bedrock aquifers by precipitation during wet years; and groundwater storage depletion that is not replenished by precipitation during wet years.

A Potential Approach for Low Flow Selection in Water Resource Supply and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Ying Ouyang

2012-01-01

Low flow selections are essential to water resource management, water supply planning, and watershed ecosystem restoration. In this study, a new approach, namely the frequent-low (FL) approach (or frequent-low index), was developed based on the minimum frequent-low flow or level used in minimum flows and/or levels program in northeast Florida, USA. This FL approach was...

Matching-index-of-refraction of transparent 3D printing models for flow visualization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Min Seop; Choi, Hae Yoon; Seong, Jee Hyun; Kim, Eung Soo

2015-01-01

Matching-index-of-refraction (MIR) has been used for obtaining high-quality flow visualization data for the fundamental nuclear thermal-hydraulic researches. By this method, distortions of the optical measurements such as PIV and LDV have been successfully minimized using various combinations of the model materials and the working fluids. This study investigated a novel 3D printing technology for manufacturing models and an oil-based working fluid for matching the refractive indices. Transparent test samples were fabricated by various rapid prototyping methods including selective layer sintering (SLS), stereolithography (SLA), and vacuum casting. As a result, the SLA direct 3D printing was evaluated to be the most suitable for flow visualization considering manufacturability, transparency, and refractive index. In order to match the refractive indices of the 3D printing models, a working fluid was developed based on the mixture of herb essential oils, which exhibit high refractive index, high transparency, high density, low viscosity, low toxicity, and low price. The refractive index and viscosity of the working fluid range 1.453–1.555 and 2.37–6.94 cP, respectively. In order to validate the MIR method, a simple test using a twisted prism made by the SLA technique and the oil mixture (anise and light mineral oil) was conducted. The experimental results show that the MIR can be successfully achieved at the refractive index of 1.51, and the proposed MIR method is expected to be widely used for flow visualization studies and CFD validation for the nuclear thermal-hydraulic researches

Matching-index-of-refraction of transparent 3D printing models for flow visualization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Min Seop; Choi, Hae Yoon; Seong, Jee Hyun; Kim, Eung Soo, E-mail: kes7741@snu.ac.kr

2015-04-01

Matching-index-of-refraction (MIR) has been used for obtaining high-quality flow visualization data for the fundamental nuclear thermal-hydraulic researches. By this method, distortions of the optical measurements such as PIV and LDV have been successfully minimized using various combinations of the model materials and the working fluids. This study investigated a novel 3D printing technology for manufacturing models and an oil-based working fluid for matching the refractive indices. Transparent test samples were fabricated by various rapid prototyping methods including selective layer sintering (SLS), stereolithography (SLA), and vacuum casting. As a result, the SLA direct 3D printing was evaluated to be the most suitable for flow visualization considering manufacturability, transparency, and refractive index. In order to match the refractive indices of the 3D printing models, a working fluid was developed based on the mixture of herb essential oils, which exhibit high refractive index, high transparency, high density, low viscosity, low toxicity, and low price. The refractive index and viscosity of the working fluid range 1.453–1.555 and 2.37–6.94 cP, respectively. In order to validate the MIR method, a simple test using a twisted prism made by the SLA technique and the oil mixture (anise and light mineral oil) was conducted. The experimental results show that the MIR can be successfully achieved at the refractive index of 1.51, and the proposed MIR method is expected to be widely used for flow visualization studies and CFD validation for the nuclear thermal-hydraulic researches.

High levels of endocrine pollutants in US streams during low flow due to insufficient wastewater dilution

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Jacelyn; Westerhoff, Paul

2017-08-01

Wastewater discharges from publicly owned treatment works are a significant source of endocrine disruptors and other contaminants to the aquatic environment in the US. Although remaining pollutants in wastewater pose environmental risks, treated wastewater is also a primary source of stream flow, which in turn is critical in maintaining many aquatic and riparian wildlife habitats. Here we calculate the dilution factor--the ratio of flow in the stream receiving discharge to the flow of wastewater discharge--for over 14,000 receiving streams in the continental US using streamflow observations and a spatially explicit watershed-scale hydraulic model. We found that wastewater discharges make up more than 50% of in-stream flow for over 900 streams. However, in 1,049 streams that experienced exceptional low-flow conditions, the dilution factors in 635 of those streams fell so low during those conditions that the safety threshold for concentrations of one endocrine disrupting compound was exceeded, and in roughly a third of those streams, the threshold was exceeded for two compounds. We suggest that streams are vulnerable to public wastewater discharge of contaminants under low-flow conditions, at a time when wastewater discharges are likely to be most important for maintaining stream flow for smaller sized river systems.

Effects of water use and land use on streamflow and aquatic habitat in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins, Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Parker, Gene W.; Armstrong, David S.; Carlson, Carl S.

2010-01-01

associated with the loss of deep-rooted vegetation. Simulations of reactivating production wells near the north end of Lake Cochituate indicate pumping could substantially affect lake levels and flows at the lake outlet or in nearby reaches in the Sudbury River during periods of low flow, but the effects vary depending on the source of the water to the wells, which is largely unknown. Chapter 2 of the report covers the fish-community assessment and comparison of streamflow-setting standards for protecting aquatic habitat. The fish-community assessment indicates the main stems of the Sudbury and Assabet Rivers are dominated by macrohabitat generalists. Water temperatures recorded in seven free-flowing reaches in the upper Sudbury River Basin at three sites unaffected by withdrawals or impoundments are generally suitable for cold-water fish; however, summer temperatures often rose to a level considered critical to long-term survival of brook trout. At four sites downstream from withdrawals or reservoirs, or both, summer water temperatures were often in the upper critical range for brook trout survival. Physically and statistically based methods for determining streamflows for protecting aquatic habitat were applied at 10 selected riffle sites in the Sudbury and Assabet River Basins. Physically based methods, R2Cross and Wetted-Perimeter, use site-specific physical and hydraulic information and a one-dimensional hydraulics model, HEC-RAS, to determine flows that meet the criteria set forth by the method. The median flow that meets 2-of-3 of the R2Cross hydraulic criteria (percentage of bankfull wetted perimeter, average velocity, and mean depth) ranged from about 0.07 to 0.72 cubic feet per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) with an overall median of about 0.24 ft3/s/mi2; the median Wetted-Perimeter target flow ranged from about 0.10 to 0.51 ft3/s/mi2 with an overall median of about 0.25 ft3/s/mi2. Statistically based methods?Tennant, New England Aquatic Base Flow (ABF)

Streamflow characteristics of the Colorado River Basin in Utah through September 1981

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, R.C.; Johnson, E.B.; Plantz, G.G.

1987-01-01

 This report summarizes discharge data and other streamflow characteristics developed from gag ing-station records collected through September 1981 at 337 stations in the Colorado River Basin in Utah. Data also are included for 14 stations in adjacent areas of the bordering states of Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming (fig. 1). The study leading to this report was done in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, which needs the streamflow data in order to evaluate impacts of mining on the hydrologic system. The report also will be beneficial to other Federal, State, and county agencies and to individuals concerned with water supply and water problems in the Colorado River Basin.The streamflow characteristics in the report could be useful in many water-related studies that involve the following:Definition of baseline-hydrologic conditions; studies of the effects of man's activities on streamflow; frequency analyses of low and high flows; regional analyses of streamflow characteristics; design of water-supply systems; water-power studies; forecasting of stream discharge; time-series analyses of streamflow; design of flood-control structures; stream-pollution studies; and water-chemistry transport studies.The basic data used to develop the summaries in this report are records of daily and peak discharge collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal agencies. Much of the work of the Geological Survey was done in cooperation with Federal, State, and county agencies. Discharge recordsincluded in the report generally were for stations with at least 1 complete water year of record and nearby stations that were on the same stream and had different streamflow characteristics. A water year is a 12-month period ending September 30, and it is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. For streams that have had significant changes in regulation by reservoirs or diversions, the records before and after those changes were used separately to provide

Simulation of groundwater conditions and streamflow depletion to evaluate water availability in a Freeport, Maine, watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Martha G.; Locke, Daniel B.

2012-01-01

In order to evaluate water availability in the State of Maine, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Maine Geological Survey began a cooperative investigation to provide the first rigorous evaluation of watersheds deemed "at risk" because of the combination of instream flow requirements and proportionally large water withdrawals. The study area for this investigation includes the Harvey and Merrill Brook watersheds and the Freeport aquifer in the towns of Freeport, Pownal, and Yarmouth, Maine. A numerical groundwater- flow model was used to evaluate groundwater withdrawals, groundwater-surface-water interactions, and the effect of water-management practices on streamflow. The water budget illustrates the effect that groundwater withdrawals have on streamflow and the movement of water within the system. Streamflow measurements were made following standard USGS techniques, from May through September 2009 at one site in the Merrill Brook watershed and four sites in the Harvey Brook watershed. A record-extension technique was applied to estimate long-term monthly streamflows at each of the five sites. The conceptual model of the groundwater system consists of a deep, confined aquifer (the Freeport aquifer) in a buried valley that trends through the middle of the study area, covered by a discontinuous confining unit, and topped by a thin upper saturated zone that is a mixture of sandy units, till, and weathered clay. Harvey and Merrill Brooks flow southward through the study area, and receive groundwater discharge from the upper saturated zone and from the deep aquifer through previously unknown discontinuities in the confining unit. The Freeport aquifer gets most of its recharge from local seepage around the edges of the confining unit, the remainder is received as inflow from the north within the buried valley. Groundwater withdrawals from the Freeport aquifer in the study area were obtained from the local water utility and estimated for other categories. Overall

Isotope-based partitioning of streamflow in the oil sands region, northern Alberta: Towards a monitoring strategy for assessing flow sources and water quality controls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.J. Gibson

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: This study is based on the rapidly developing Athabasca Oil Sands region, northeastern Alberta. Study focus: Hydrograph separation using stable isotopes of water is applied to partition streamflow sources in the Athabasca River and its tributaries. Distinct isotopic labelling of snow, rain, groundwater and surface water are applied to estimate the contribution of these sources to streamflow from analysis of multi-year records of isotopes in streamflow. New hydrological insights for the region: The results provide new insight into runoff generation mechanisms operating in six tributaries and at four stations along the Athabasca River. Groundwater, found to be an important flow source at all stations, is the dominant component of the hydrograph in three tributaries (Steepbank R., Muskeg R., Firebag R., accounting for 39–50% of annual streamflow. Surface water, mainly drainage from peatlands, is also found to be widely important, and dominant in three tributaries (Clearwater R., Mackay R., Ells R., accounting for 45–81% of annual streamflow. Fairly limited contributions from direct precipitation illustrate that most snow and rain events result in indirect displacement of pre-event water by fill and spill mechanisms. Systematic shifts in regional groundwater to surface-water ratios are expected to be an important control on spatial and temporal distribution of water quality parameters and useful for evaluating the susceptibility of rivers to climate and development impacts. Keywords: Stable isotopes, Hydrograph separation, Groundwater, Surface water, Snowmelt, Oil sands

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verdin, Kristine L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Lab. (INEEL)

2004-05-01

This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from the EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.

Geospatial tools effectively estimate nonexceedance probabilities of daily streamflow at ungauged and intermittently gauged locations in Ohio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William H. Farmer

2017-10-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Several methods for estimating nonexceedance probabilities of daily mean streamflows are explored, including single-index methodologies (nearest-neighboring index and geospatial tools (kriging and topological kriging. These methods were evaluated by conducting leave-one-out cross-validations based on analyses of nearly 7 years of daily streamflow data from 79 unregulated streamgages in Ohio and neighboring states. The pooled, ordinary kriging model, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe performance of 0.87, was superior to the single-site index methods, though there was some bias in the tails of the probability distribution. Incorporating network structure through topological kriging did not improve performance. The pooled, ordinary kriging model was applied to 118 locations without systematic streamgaging across Ohio where instantaneous streamflow measurements had been made concurrent with water-quality sampling on at least 3 separate days. Spearman rank correlations between estimated nonexceedance probabilities and measured streamflows were high, with a median value of 0.76. In consideration of application, the degree of regulation in a set of sample sites helped to specify the streamgages required to implement kriging approaches successfully.

Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guimberteau, M; Ronchail, J; Lengaigne, M; Sultan, B; Drapeau, G; Espinoza, J C; Polcher, J; Guyot, J-L; Ducharne, A; Ciais, P

2013-01-01

Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches −50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35

Multiple causes of nonstationarity in the Weihe annual low-flow series

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Bin; Xiong, Lihua; Chen, Jie; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Lingqi

2018-02-01

Under the background of global climate change and local anthropogenic activities, multiple driving forces have introduced various nonstationary components into low-flow series. This has led to a high demand on low-flow frequency analysis that considers nonstationary conditions for modeling. In this study, through a nonstationary frequency analysis framework with the generalized linear model (GLM) to consider time-varying distribution parameters, the multiple explanatory variables were incorporated to explain the variation in low-flow distribution parameters. These variables are comprised of the three indices of human activities (HAs; i.e., population, POP; irrigation area, IAR; and gross domestic product, GDP) and the eight measuring indices of the climate and catchment conditions (i.e., total precipitation P, mean frequency of precipitation events λ, temperature T, potential evapotranspiration (EP), climate aridity index AIEP, base-flow index (BFI), recession constant K and the recession-related aridity index AIK). This framework was applied to model the annual minimum flow series of both Huaxian and Xianyang gauging stations in the Weihe River, China (also known as the Wei He River). The results from stepwise regression for the optimal explanatory variables show that the variables related to irrigation, recession, temperature and precipitation play an important role in modeling. Specifically, analysis of annual minimum 30-day flow in Huaxian shows that the nonstationary distribution model with any one of all explanatory variables is better than the one without explanatory variables, the nonstationary gamma distribution model with four optimal variables is the best model and AIK is of the highest relative importance among these four variables, followed by IAR, BFI and AIEP. We conclude that the incorporation of multiple indices related to low-flow generation permits tracing various driving forces. The established link in nonstationary analysis will be beneficial

Tennessee StreamStats: A Web-Enabled Geographic Information System Application for Automating the Retrieval and Calculation of Streamflow Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ladd, David E.; Law, George S.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow and other stream-related information needed to protect people and property from floods, to plan and manage water resources, and to protect water quality in the streams. Streamflow statistics provided by the USGS, such as the 100-year flood and the 7-day 10-year low flow, frequently are used by engineers, land managers, biologists, and many others to help guide decisions in their everyday work. In addition to streamflow statistics, resource managers often need to know the physical and climatic characteristics (basin characteristics) of the drainage basins for locations of interest to help them understand the mechanisms that control water availability and water quality at these locations. StreamStats is a Web-enabled geographic information system (GIS) application that makes it easy for users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for USGS data-collection stations and for ungaged sites of interest. If a user selects the location of a data-collection station, StreamStats will provide previously published information for the station from a database. If a user selects a location where no data are available (an ungaged site), StreamStats will run a GIS program to delineate a drainage basin boundary, measure basin characteristics, and estimate streamflow statistics based on USGS streamflow prediction methods. A user can download a GIS feature class of the drainage basin boundary with attributes including the measured basin characteristics and streamflow estimates.

Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.

2018-01-01

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Stream Tracker: Crowd sourcing and remote sensing to monitor stream flow intermittence

Science.gov (United States)

Puntenney, K.; Kampf, S. K.; Newman, G.; Lefsky, M. A.; Weber, R.; Gerlich, J.

2017-12-01

Streams that do not flow continuously in time and space support diverse aquatic life and can be critical contributors to downstream water supply. However, these intermittent streams are rarely monitored and poorly mapped. Stream Tracker is a community powered stream monitoring project that pairs citizen contributed observations of streamflow presence or absence with a network of streamflow sensors and remotely sensed data from satellites to track when and where water is flowing in intermittent stream channels. Citizens can visit sites on roads and trails to track flow and contribute their observations to the project site hosted by CitSci.org. Data can be entered using either a mobile application with offline capabilities or an online data entry portal. The sensor network provides a consistent record of streamflow and flow presence/absence across a range of elevations and drainage areas. Capacitance, resistance, and laser sensors have been deployed to determine the most reliable, low cost sensor that could be mass distributed to track streamflow intermittence over a larger number of sites. Streamflow presence or absence observations from the citizen and sensor networks are then compared to satellite imagery to improve flow detection algorithms using remotely sensed data from Landsat. In the first two months of this project, 1,287 observations have been made at 241 sites by 24 project members across northern and western Colorado.

Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris C. Gianfagna

2015-09-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

Independent technical review and analysis of hydraulic modeling and hydrology under low-flow conditions of the Des Plaines River near Riverside, Illinois

Science.gov (United States)

Over, Thomas M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Hortness, Jon E.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated a streamgage and published daily flows for the Des Plaines River at Riverside since Oct. 1, 1943. A HEC-RAS model has been developed to estimate the effect of the removal of Hofmann Dam near the gage on low-flow elevations in the reach approximately 3 miles upstream from the dam. The Village of Riverside, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources-Office of Water Resources (IDNR-OWR), and the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers-Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) are interested in verifying the performance of the HEC-RAS model for specific low-flow conditions, and obtaining an estimate of selected daily flow quantiles and other low-flow statistics for a selected period of record that best represents current hydrologic conditions. Because the USGS publishes streamflow records for the Des Plaines River system and provides unbiased analyses of flows and stream hydraulic characteristics, the USGS served as an Independent Technical Reviewer (ITR) for this study.

Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Hashino

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa, issued sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected forecasts have important implications for their use in operational decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill.

Streamflow profile classification using functional data analysis: A case study on the Kelantan River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Jamaludin, Suhaila

2017-05-01

Extreme rainfall events such as floods and prolonged dry spells have become common phenomena in tropical countries like Malaysia. Floods are regular natural disasters in Malaysia, and happen nearly every year during the monsoon season. Recently, the magnitude of streamflow seems to have altered frequently, both spatially and temporally. Therefore, in order to have effective planning and an efficient water management system, it is advisable that streamflow data are analysed continuously over a period of time. If the data are treated as a set of functions rather than as a set of discrete values, then this ensures that they are not restricted by physical time. In addition, the derivatives of the functions may themselves be treated as functional data, which provides new information. The objective of this study is to develop a functional framework for hydrological applications using streamflow as the functional data. The daily flow series from the Kelantan River Basin were used as the main input in this study. Seven streamflow stations were employed in the analysis. Classification between the stations was done using the functional principal component, which was based on the results of the factor scores. The results indicated that two stations, namely the Kelantan River (Guillemard Bridge) and the Galas River, have a different flow pattern from the other streamflow stations. The flow curves of these two rivers are considered as the extreme curves because of their different magnitude and shape.

Influence of landscape mosaic on streamflow of a peri-urban catchment under Mediterranean climate

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Ferreira, Carla; Walsh, Rory; Ferreira, António

2017-04-01

Peri-urban areas tend to be characterized by patchy landscape mosaics of different land-uses. Although the impact of land-use changes on catchment hydrology have been widely investigated, the impact of mixed land-use patterns on the streamflow of peri-urban areas is still poorly understood. This study aims to (i) explore and quantify streamflow delivery from sub-catchments characterized by distinct landscape mosaics; (ii) assess the impact of different urbanization styles on hydrograph properties; and (iii) explore the influence of urbanization type on flow connectivity and stream discharge. The study was carried out in Ribeira dos Covões, a small (6.2km2) peri-urban catchment in central Portugal. The climate is Mediterranean, with a mean annual rainfall of 892mm. Catchment geology comprises sandstone (56%), limestone (41%) and alluvial deposits (3%). Soils developed on sandstone are generally deep (>3m) Fluvisols and Podsols, whereas on limestone the Leptic Cambisols are typically shallow (blocks and of high population density (9900 inhabitants km-2). The study uses hydrological data recorded over three hydrological years, starting in November 2010, in a monitoring network comprising eight streamflow gauging stations (instrumented with water level recorders) and five rainfall gauges. The gauging stations provide information on the discharge response to rainstorms of the catchment outlet and upstream sub-catchments of different size, urban pattern (in terms of percentage urban land-use and impervious area, distance to the stream network, and storm water management), and lithology (either sandstone or limestone). Annual storm runoff coefficients were lowest (13.7%) in catchments dominated by forest (>80%) and greatest (17.3-17.6%) in the most urbanized sub-catchments (49-53% urban). Impervious area seems to control streamflow particularly during dry periods. Winter runoff (streamflow per unit area) was 2-4 times higher than summer runoff in highly urbanized areas

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

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Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-02-24

-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages.The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

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Hong Hanh Nguyen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

Estimating Selected Streamflow Statistics Representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

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Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2008-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 2-year; 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 5-year; and 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day 10-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the 1-day, 3-year and 4-day, 3-year biologically based low-flow frequency values; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows; and the 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, and 90-percent flow-duration values. Regional equations were developed using ordinary least-squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamflow-gaging stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia - North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle - were determined. Drainage area, precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. Estimating procedures are presented for determining statistics at a gaging station, a partial-record station, and an ungaged location. Examples of some estimating procedures are presented.

Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

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Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko

2018-03-01

; correlation between catchment base flow index (BFI) and ESP skill was very strong (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.90 at 1-month lead time). This was in contrast to the more highly responsive catchments in the north and west which were generally not skilful at seasonal lead times. Overall, this work provides scientific justification for when and where use of such a relatively simple forecasting approach is appropriate in the UK. This study, furthermore, creates a low cost benchmark against which potential skill improvements from more sophisticated hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction systems can be judged.

Ground-Water Occurrence and Contribution to Streamflow, Northeast Maui, Hawaii

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Gingerich, Stephen B.

1999-01-01

The study area lies on the northern flank of the East Maui Volcano (Haleakala) and covers about 129 square miles between the drainage basins of Maliko Gulch to the west and Makapipi Stream to the east. About 989 million gallons per day of rainfall and 176 million gallons per day of fog drip reaches the study area and about 529 million gallons per day enters the ground-water system as recharge. Average annual ground-water withdrawal from wells totals only about 3 million gallons per day; proposed (as of 1998) additional withdrawals total about 18 million gallons per day. Additionally, tunnels and ditches of an extensive irrigation network directly intercept at least 10 million gallons per day of ground water. The total amount of average annual streamflow in gaged stream subbasins upstream of 1,300 feet altitude is about 255 million gallons per day and the total amount of average annual base flow is about 62 million gallons per day. Six major surface-water diversion systems in the study area have diverted an average of 163 million gallons per day of streamflow (including nearly all base flow of diverted streams) for irrigation and domestic supply in central Maui during 1925-97. Fresh ground water is found in two main forms. West of Keanae Valley, ground-water flow appears to be dominated by a variably saturated system. A saturated zone in the uppermost rock unit, the Kula Volcanics, is separated from a freshwater lens near sea level by an unsaturated zone in the underlying Honomanu Basalt. East of Keanae Valley, the ground-water system appears to be fully saturated above sea level to altitudes greater than 2,000 feet. The total average annual streamflow of gaged streams west of Keanae Valley is about 140 million gallons per day at 1,200 feet to 1,300 feet altitude. It is not possible to estimate the total average annual streamflow at the coast. All of the base flow measured in the study area west of Keanae Valley represents ground-water discharge from the high

Using the tracer-dilution discharge method to develop streamflow records for ice-affected streams in Colorado

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Capesius, Joseph P.; Sullivan, Joseph R.; O'Neill, Gregory B.; Williams, Cory A.

2005-01-01

Accurate ice-affected streamflow records are difficult to obtain for several reasons, which makes the management of instream-flow water rights in the wintertime a challenging endeavor. This report documents a method to improve ice-affected streamflow records for two gaging stations in Colorado. In January and February 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted an experiment using a sodium chloride tracer to measure streamflow under ice cover by the tracer-dilution discharge method. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of obtaining accurate ice-affected streamflow records by using a sodium chloride tracer that was injected into the stream. The tracer was injected at two gaging stations once per day for approximately 20 minutes for 25 days. Multiple-parameter water-quality sensors at the two gaging stations monitored background and peak chloride concentrations. These data were used to determine discharge at each site. A comparison of the current-meter streamflow record to the tracer-dilution streamflow record shows different levels of accuracy and precision of the tracer-dilution streamflow record at the two sites. At the lower elevation and warmer site, Brandon Ditch near Whitewater, the tracer-dilution method overestimated flow by an average of 14 percent, but this average is strongly biased by outliers. At the higher elevation and colder site, Keystone Gulch near Dillon, the tracer-dilution method experienced problems with the tracer solution partially freezing in the injection line. The partial freezing of the tracer contributed to the tracer-dilution method underestimating flow by 52 percent at Keystone Gulch. In addition, a tracer-pump-reliability test was conducted to test how accurately the tracer pumps can discharge the tracer solution in conditions similar to those used at the gaging stations. Although the pumps were reliable and consistent throughout the 25-day study period

Monthly streamflow forecasting using continuous wavelet and multi-gene genetic programming combination

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Hadi, Sinan Jasim; Tombul, Mustafa

2018-06-01

Streamflow is an essential component of the hydrologic cycle in the regional and global scale and the main source of fresh water supply. It is highly associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Therefore, accurate streamflow forecasting is essential. Forecasting streamflow in general and monthly streamflow in particular is a complex process that cannot be handled by data-driven models (DDMs) only and requires pre-processing. Wavelet transformation is a pre-processing technique; however, application of continuous wavelet transformation (CWT) produces many scales that cause deterioration in the performance of any DDM because of the high number of redundant variables. This study proposes multigene genetic programming (MGGP) as a selection tool. After the CWT analysis, it selects important scales to be imposed into the artificial neural network (ANN). A basin located in the southeast of Turkey is selected as case study to prove the forecasting ability of the proposed model. One month ahead downstream flow is used as output, and downstream flow, upstream, rainfall, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration with associated lags are used as inputs. Before modeling, wavelet coherence transformation (WCT) analysis was conducted to analyze the relationship between variables in the time-frequency domain. Several combinations were developed to investigate the effect of the variables on streamflow forecasting. The results indicated a high localized correlation between the streamflow and other variables, especially the upstream. In the models of the standalone layout where the data were entered to ANN and MGGP without CWT, the performance is found poor. In the best-scale layout, where the best scale of the CWT identified as the highest correlated scale is chosen and enters to ANN and MGGP, the performance increased slightly. Using the proposed model, the performance improved dramatically particularly in forecasting the peak values because of the inclusion

An Hourly Streamflow Forecasting Model Coupled with an Enforced Learning Strategy

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Ming-Chang Wu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Floods, one of the most significant natural hazards, often result in loss of life and property. Accurate hourly streamflow forecasting is always a key issue in hydrology for flood hazard mitigation. To improve the performance of hourly streamflow forecasting, a methodology concerning the development of neural network (NN based models with an enforced learning strategy is proposed in this paper. Firstly, four different NNs, namely back propagation network (BPN, radial basis function network (RBFN, self-organizing map (SOM, and support vector machine (SVM, are used to construct streamflow forecasting models. Through the cross-validation test, NN-based models with superior performance in streamflow forecasting are detected. Then, an enforced learning strategy is developed to further improve the performance of the superior NN-based models, i.e., SOM and SVM in this study. Finally, the proposed flow forecasting model is obtained. Actual applications are conducted to demonstrate the potential of the proposed model. Moreover, comparison between the NN-based models with and without the enforced learning strategy is performed to evaluate the effect of the enforced learning strategy on model performance. The results indicate that the NN-based models with the enforced learning strategy indeed improve the accuracy of hourly streamflow forecasting. Hence, the presented methodology is expected to be helpful for developing improved NN-based streamflow forecasting models.

Modifying WEPP to improve streamflow simulation in a Pacific Northwest watershed

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A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; J. Q. Wu; W. J. Elliot; E. A. Bruner; S. Dun; E. S. Brooks; I. S. Miller

2013-01-01

The assessment of water yield from hillslopes into streams is critical in managing water supply and aquatic habitat. Streamflow is typically composed of surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow, and groundwater baseflow; baseflow sustains the stream during the dry season. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model simulates surface runoff, subsurface lateral flow...

Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

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Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

2018-01-01

The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

Artificial Neural Network Models for Long Lead Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Information

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Kumar, J.; Devineni, N.

2007-12-01

Information on season ahead stream flow forecasts is very beneficial for the operation and management of water supply systems. Daily streamflow conditions at any particular reservoir primarily depend on atmospheric and land surface conditions including the soil moisture and snow pack. On the other hand recent studies suggest that developing long lead streamflow forecasts (3 months ahead) typically depends on exogenous climatic conditions particularly Sea Surface Temperature conditions (SST) in the tropical oceans. Examples of some oceanic variables are El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Identification of such conditions that influence the moisture transport into a given basin poses many challenges given the nonlinear dependency between the predictors (SST) and predictand (stream flows). In this study, we apply both linear and nonlinear dependency measures to identify the predictors that influence the winter flows into the Neuse basin. The predictor identification approach here adopted uses simple correlation coefficients to spearman rank correlation measures for detecting nonlinear dependency. All these dependency measures are employed with a lag 3 time series of the high flow season (January - February - March) using 75 years (1928-2002) of stream flows recorded in to the Falls Lake, Neuse River Basin. Developing streamflow forecasts contingent on these exogenous predictors will play an important role towards improved water supply planning and management. Recently, the soft computing techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) have provided an alternative method to solve complex problems efficiently. ANNs are data driven models which trains on the examples given to it. The ANNs functions as universal approximators and are non linear in nature. This paper presents a study aiming towards using climatic predictors for 3 month lead time streamflow forecast. ANN models representing the physical process of the system are

HUBUNGAN ANTARA INDEKS VEGETASI NDVI (NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX DAN KOEFISIEN RESESI BASEFLOW PADA BEBERAPA SUBDAS PROPINSI JAWA TENGAH DAN DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA

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Bokiraiya Latuamury

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The background of this research is the decrease of environment capacity in cacthment ecosystem, especially impact of vegetation forest on behavior streamflow. The indicators of cacthment destruction can be seen through hydrograph characteristics. Evaluation of cactment respons of flow hydrographic as an evaluation tools of river catchment responses becomes very important to analyze because it is a benchmark in determination several policy about flood, drough, sedimentation and landslide handling. The research purpose is to analyze the relationship between vegetation index NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the characteristic of baseflow recession coefficient at several subcatchment areas in province of Central Java and Specific District of Yogjakarta.The method of this research is surveillance on data recording of AWLR (Automatic Water Level Recorder and data of River Flow Measuring Stations in order to separate the baseflow by calibration curve, and image interpretation of Landsat ETM+ for the transformation of vegetation index (NDVI-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index.The analysis on recession coefficient data (Krb and NDVI were correlated to analyze the strength of relationship between these two parameters. The results of statistical analysis on index NDVI and recession coefficient showsthat NDVI and recession coefficient value at R2 is 0.1427, F = 2.17 which is not significant at 1% significance level of 0.1646. The result shows a very weak correlation of 0.077 which mean that vegetation density (NDVI indexhas a very weak control on low flows. Basically, river baseflow is a genetic component of river flow which comes from aquifer storage and/or other low flow sources. Thus, geology and soil have a significant effect on baseflow.

Regional climate change projections of streamflow characteristics in the Northeast and Midwest U.S.

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Eleonora M.C. Demaria

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: Northeast and Midwest, United States. Study focus: Assessing the climate change impacts on the basin scale is important for water and natural resource managers. Here, the presence of monotonic trends and changes in climate-driven simulated 3-day peak flows, 7-day low flows, and mean base flows are evaluated in the Northeast and Midwest U.S. during the 20th and the 21st centuries using climate projections from sixteen climate models. Proven statistical methods are used to spatially and temporally disaggregate precipitation and temperature fields to a finer resolution before being used as drivers for a hydrological model. New hydrological insights for the region: Changes in the annual cycle of precipitation are likely to occur during the 21st century as winter precipitation increases and warmer temperatures reduce snow coverage across the entire domain especially in the northern basins. Maximum precipitation intensities are projected to become more intense across the region by mid-century especially along the coast. Positive trends in 3-day peak flows are also projected in the region as a result of the more intense precipitation, whereas the magnitude of 7-day low flows and mean base flows are projected to decrease. The length of the low flows season will likely extend by mid-century despite the increased precipitation as the atmospheric demand increases. Keywords: Streamflow peaks, Low flows, Trend analysis, Intense precipitation, Base flows

Water chemistry, seepage investigation, streamflow, reservoir storage, and annual availability of water for the San Juan-Chama Project, northern New Mexico, 1942-2010

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McKean, Sarah E.; Anderholm, Scott K.

2014-01-01

The Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority supplements the municipal water supply for the Albuquerque metropolitan area, in central New Mexico, with surface water diverted from the Rio Grande. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, undertook this study in which water-chemistry data and historical streamflow were compiled and new water-chemistry data were collected to characterize the water chemistry and streamflow of the San Juan-Chama Project (SJCP). Characterization of streamflow included analysis of the variability of annual streamflow and comparison of the theoretical amount of water that could have been diverted into the SJCP to the actual amount of water that was diverted for the SJCP. Additionally, a seepage investigation was conducted along the channel between Azotea Tunnel Outlet and the streamflow-gaging station at Willow Creek above Heron Reservoir to estimate the magnitude of the gain or loss in streamflow resulting from groundwater interaction over the approximately 10-mile reach. Generally, surface-water chemistry varied with streamflow throughout the year. Streamflow ranged from high flow to low flow on the basis of the quantity of water diverted from the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, and Navajo River for the SJCP. Vertical profiles of the water temperature over the depth of the water column at Heron Reservoir indicated that the reservoir is seasonally stratified. The results from the seepage investigations indicated a small amount of loss of streamflow along the channel. Annual variability in streamflow for the SJCP was an indication of the variation in the climate parameters that interact to contribute to streamflow in the Rio Blanco, Little Navajo River, Navajo River, and Willow Creek watersheds. For most years, streamflow at Azotea Tunnel Outlet started in March and continued for approximately 3 months until the middle of July. The majority of annual streamflow

Availability of high-magnitude streamflow for groundwater banking in the Central Valley, California

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Kocis, Tiffany N.; Dahlke, Helen E.

2017-08-01

California’s climate is characterized by the largest precipitation and streamflow variability observed within the conterminous US This, combined with chronic groundwater overdraft of 0.6-3.5 km3 yr-1, creates the need to identify additional surface water sources available for groundwater recharge using methods such as agricultural groundwater banking, aquifer storage and recovery, and spreading basins. High-magnitude streamflow, i.e. flow above the 90th percentile, that exceeds environmental flow requirements and current surface water allocations under California water rights, could be a viable source of surface water for groundwater banking. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of high-magnitude streamflow (HMF) for 93 stream gauges covering the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare basins in California. The results show that in an average year with HMF approximately 3.2 km3 of high-magnitude flow is exported from the entire Central Valley to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta often at times when environmental flow requirements of the Delta and major rivers are exceeded. High-magnitude flow occurs, on average, during 7 and 4.7 out of 10 years in the Sacramento River and the San Joaquin-Tulare Basins, respectively, from just a few storm events (5-7 1-day peak events) lasting for 25-30 days between November and April. The results suggest that there is sufficient unmanaged surface water physically available to mitigate long-term groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley.

Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

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Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

2017-09-01

The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

Climate, streamflow, and legacy effects on growth of riparian Populus angustifolia in the arid San Luis Valley, Colorado

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Andersen, Douglas

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the factors affecting the vigor of desert riparian trees is important for their conservation and management. I used multiple regression to assess effects of streamflow and climate (12–14 years of data) or climate alone (up to 60 years of data) on radial growth of clonal narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), a foundation species in the arid, Closed Basin portion of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. I collected increment cores from trees (14–90 cm DBH) at four sites along each of Sand and Deadman creeks (total N = 85), including both perennial and ephemeral reaches. Analyses on trees conditions was common. Models for trees farther from the channel or over a deep water table explained 23–71% of SGI variability, and 4 of 5 contained a streamflow variable. Analyses using solely climate variables over longer time periods explained 17–85% of SGI variability, and 10 of 12 included a variable indexing summer precipitation. Three large, abrupt shifts in recent decades from wet to dry conditions (indexed by a seasonal Palmer Drought Severity Index) coincided with dramatically reduced radial growth. Each shift was presumably associated with branch dieback that produced a legacy effect apparent in many SGI series: uncharacteristically low SGI in the year following the shift. My results suggest trees in locations distant from the active channel rely on the regional shallow unconfined aquifer, summer rainfall, or both to meet water demands. The landscape-level differences in the water supplies sustaining these trees imply variable effects from shifts in winter-versus monsoon-related precipitation, and from climate change versus streamflow or groundwater management.

A physical framework for evaluating net effects of wet meadow restoration on late summer streamflow

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Grant, G.; Nash, C.; Selker, J. S.; Lewis, S.; Noël, P.

2017-12-01

Restoration of degraded wet meadows that develop on upland valley floors is intended to achieve a range of ecological benefits. A widely cited benefit is the potential for meadow restoration to augment late-season streamflow; however, there has been little field data demonstrating increased summer flows following restoration. Instead, the hydrologic consequences of restoration have typically been explored using coupled groundwater and surface water flow models at instrumented sites. The expected magnitude and direction of change provided by models has, however, been inconclusive. Here, we assess the streamflow benefit that can be obtained by wet meadow restoration using a parsimonious, physically-based approach. We use a one-dimensional linearized Boussinesq equation with a superimposed solution for changes in storage due to groundwater upwelling and and explicitly calculate evapotranspiration using the White Method. The model accurately predicts water table elevations from field data in the Middle Fork John Day watershed in Oregon, USA. The full solution shows that while raising channel beds can increase total water storage via increases in water table elevation in upland valley bottoms, the contributions of both lateral and longitudinal drainage from restored floodplains to late summer streamflow are undetectably small, while losses in streamflow due to greater transpiration, lower hydraulic gradients, and less drainable pore volume are substantial. Although late-summer streamflow increases should not be expected as a direct result of wet meadow restoration, these approaches offer benefits for improving the quality and health of riparian and meadow vegetation that would warrant considering such measures, even at the cost of increased water demand and reduced streamflow.

Simulating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow in a precipitation-runoff model

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Zarriello, Philip J.; Barlow, P.M.; Duda, P.B.

2004-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models are used to assess the effects of water use and management alternatives on streamflow. Often, ground-water withdrawals are a major water-use component that affect streamflow, but the ability of surface-water models to simulate ground-water withdrawals is limited. As part of a Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model developed to analyze the effect of ground-water and surface-water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts, an analytical technique (STRMDEPL) was developed for calculating the effects of pumped wells on streamflow. STRMDEPL is a FORTRAN program based on two analytical solutions that solve equations for ground-water flow to a well completed in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic aquifer in direct hydraulic connection to a fully penetrating stream. One analytical method calculates unimpeded flow at the stream-aquifer boundary and the other method calculates the resistance to flow caused by semipervious streambed and streambank material. The principle of superposition is used with these analytical equations to calculate time-varying streamflow depletions due to daily pumping. The HSPF model can readily incorporate streamflow depletions caused by a well or surface-water withdrawal, or by multiple wells or surface-water withdrawals, or both, as a combined time-varying outflow demand from affected channel reaches. These demands are stored as a time series in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) file. This time-series data is read into the model as an external source used to specify flow from the first outflow gate in the reach where these withdrawals are located. Although the STRMDEPL program can be run independently of the HSPF model, an extension was developed to run this program within GenScn, a scenario generator and graphical user interface developed for use with the HSPF model. This extension requires that actual pumping rates for each well be stored

Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

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Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

Evaluation of Bioenergy Crop Growth and the Impacts Of Bioenergy Crops on Streamflow, Tile Drain Flow and Nutrient Losses Using SWAT

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, T.; Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Gitau, M. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.; Kiniry, J. R.; Engel, B.

2016-12-01

Bioenery crops are expected to produce large quantities of biofuel at a national scale to meet US biofuel goals. It is important to study bioenergy crop growth and the impacts on water quantity and quality to identify environment-friendly and productive biofeedstocks. In this study, SWAT2012 with a new tile drainage routine (DRAINMOD routine) and improved perennial grass and tree growth simulation was used to model long-term annual biomass yields, streamflow, tile flow, sediment load, total nitrogen, nitrate load in flow, nitrate in tile flow, soluble nitrogen, organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, mineral phosphorus and organic phosphorus under various bioenergy scenarios in an extensively agricultural watershed in the Midwestern US. The results showed that simulated annual crop yields matched with observed county level values for corn and soybeans, and were reasonable for Miscanthus, switchgrass and hybrid poplar. Removal of 38% of corn stover (66,439 Mg/yr) with Miscanthus production on highly erodible areas and marginal land (19,039 Mg/yr) provided the highest biofeedstock production. Streamflow, tile flow, erosion and nutrient losses were reduced under bioenergy crop scenarios of Miscanthus, switchgrass, and hybrid poplar on highly erodible areas, marginal land. Corn stover removal did not result in significant water quality changes. The increase in sediment load and nutrient losses under corn stover removal could be offset with production of other bioenergy crops. The study showed that corn stover removal with bioenergy crops both on highly erodible areas and marginal land could provide more biofuel production relative to the baseline, and was beneficial to hydrology and water quality at the watershed scale, providing guidance for further research on evaluation of bioenergy crop scenarios in a typical extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwestern U.S.

Sources of Increased Spring and Streamflow Caused by the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Rytuba, J. J.; Holzer, T. L.

2014-12-01

Seasonally dry springs and creeks began flowing over a broad region in the hills around Napa following the M6.0 South Napa earthquake on August 24, 2014. Flows in hillside creek beds, which were dry before the earthquake, were reported from 19 km west, to 6 km east, and 18 km north of Napa and the epicenter, an area that shook at MMI≥VI. The exact timing of the increased flow is unknown because the earthquake occurred at 3:20 AM PDT. A gaging station on the Napa River, which is downstream from several tributaries that began flowing after the earthquake, showed a sudden increase of flow rate within 45 minutes following the earthquake. The sudden increase at the gaging station suggests flows initiated either contemporaneously with or very soon after the strong shaking. This timing is consistent with eyewitness accounts of other streams and springs at daylight, a few hours after the earthquake. One of the largest increases of streamflow was in Green Valley, where a streamflow rate of about 100 cubic hectometers per day was measured in Wild Horse Creek. Two types of waters are being discharged in the Wild Horse Creek drainage: 1) water with low iron concentration that has exchanged with rhyolitic flows and tuffs in the upper part of the drainage; and 2) high iron concentration water that has exchanged with basaltic andesite in the middle part of drainage (vertical interval of about 75 meters). The high iron waters are depositing FeOOH other iron phases. Mixing of the two water types results in water with pH 6.9 and conductivity of 0.197 mS. This water is used by the Vallejo Water District for domestic purposes after it is mixed with recent surface water runoff stored in Lake Frey reservoir in order to improve its quality. Other drainages that have increased flow since the earthquake have water chemistry consistent with exchange with rhyolitic flows and tuffs that are the dominant rock type in these drainages.

The correlation of vascularization index and flow index of thyroid cancer ultrasound with tumor malignancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bing Liao

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: To study the correlation of ultrasound vascularization index and flow index of thyroid cancer with tumor malignancy. Methods: A total of 140 patients with thyroid nodule who accepted surgical resection in our hospital between May 2013 and June 2016 were selected as the research subjects, the patients with malignant thyroid nodule were included in the malignant group of the research and patients with benign thyroid nodule were included in the benign group of research. Three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasonography was conducted before operation to determine vascularization index (VI, flow index (FI and vascularization flow index (VFI; tumor tissues were collected after operation to detect the expression of angiogenesis as well as cell proliferation, apoptosis and invasion-related molecules. Results: VI, FI and VFI levels of tumor tissue of malignant group were significantly higher than those of benign group; VEGF, MK, Ang-2, IGF-II, Bcl-2, Livin, Wip1, S100A4, TCF, β-catenin and SATB1 protein expression in tumor tissue of malignant group were significantly higher than those of benign group and positively correlated with VI, FI and VFI levels while CCNG2 and p27 protein expression were significantly lower than those of benign group and negatively correlated with VI, FI and VFI levels. Conclusion: Ultrasound vascularization index and flow index of thyroid cancer increase significantly and are closely related to the angiogenesis as well as cell proliferation, apoptosis and invasion.

Propagation of soil moisture memory to streamflow and evapotranspiration in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2013-10-01

As a key variable of the land-climate system soil moisture is a main driver of streamflow and evapotranspiration under certain conditions. Soil moisture furthermore exhibits outstanding memory (persistence) characteristics. Many studies also report distinct low frequency variations for streamflow, which are likely related to soil moisture memory. Using data from over 100 near-natural catchments located across Europe, we investigate in this study the connection between soil moisture memory and the respective memory of streamflow and evapotranspiration on different time scales. For this purpose we use a simple water balance model in which dependencies of runoff (normalised by precipitation) and evapotranspiration (normalised by radiation) on soil moisture are fitted using streamflow observations. The model therefore allows us to compute the memory characteristics of soil moisture, streamflow and evapotranspiration on the catchment scale. We find considerable memory in soil moisture and streamflow in many parts of the continent, and evapotranspiration also displays some memory at monthly time scale in some catchments. We show that the memory of streamflow and evapotranspiration jointly depend on soil moisture memory and on the strength of the coupling of streamflow and evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, we find that the coupling strengths of streamflow and evapotranspiration to soil moisture depend on the shape of the fitted dependencies and on the variance of the meteorological forcing. To better interpret the magnitude of the respective memories across Europe, we finally provide a new perspective on hydrological memory by relating it to the mean duration required to recover from anomalies exceeding a certain threshold.

Propagation of soil moisture memory to streamflow and evapotranspiration in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Orth

2013-10-01

Full Text Available As a key variable of the land-climate system soil moisture is a main driver of streamflow and evapotranspiration under certain conditions. Soil moisture furthermore exhibits outstanding memory (persistence characteristics. Many studies also report distinct low frequency variations for streamflow, which are likely related to soil moisture memory. Using data from over 100 near-natural catchments located across Europe, we investigate in this study the connection between soil moisture memory and the respective memory of streamflow and evapotranspiration on different time scales. For this purpose we use a simple water balance model in which dependencies of runoff (normalised by precipitation and evapotranspiration (normalised by radiation on soil moisture are fitted using streamflow observations. The model therefore allows us to compute the memory characteristics of soil moisture, streamflow and evapotranspiration on the catchment scale. We find considerable memory in soil moisture and streamflow in many parts of the continent, and evapotranspiration also displays some memory at monthly time scale in some catchments. We show that the memory of streamflow and evapotranspiration jointly depend on soil moisture memory and on the strength of the coupling of streamflow and evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, we find that the coupling strengths of streamflow and evapotranspiration to soil moisture depend on the shape of the fitted dependencies and on the variance of the meteorological forcing. To better interpret the magnitude of the respective memories across Europe, we finally provide a new perspective on hydrological memory by relating it to the mean duration required to recover from anomalies exceeding a certain threshold.

Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

Science.gov (United States)

Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

2016-04-01

A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 2: Quality control, time-series indices and homogeneity assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Gudmundsson, Lukas; Do, Hong Xuan; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-04-01

This is Part 2 of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM), which is a collection of daily streamflow observations at more than 30 000 stations around the world. While Part 1 (Do et al., 2018a) describes the data collection process as well as the generation of auxiliary catchment data (e.g. catchment boundary, land cover, mean climate), Part 2 introduces a set of quality controlled time-series indices representing (i) the water balance, (ii) the seasonal cycle, (iii) low flows and (iv) floods. To this end we first consider the quality of individual daily records using a combination of quality flags from data providers and automated screening methods. Subsequently, streamflow time-series indices are computed for yearly, seasonal and monthly resolution. The paper provides a generalized assessment of the homogeneity of all generated streamflow time-series indices, which can be used to select time series that are suitable for a specific task. The newly generated global set of streamflow time-series indices is made freely available with an digital object identifier at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470" target="_blank">https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470 and is expected to foster global freshwater research, by acting as a ground truth for model validation or as a basis for assessing the role of human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. It is hoped that a renewed interest in streamflow data at the global scale will foster efforts in the systematic assessment of data quality and provide momentum to overcome administrative barriers that lead to inconsistencies in global collections of relevant hydrological observations.

Estimated ground-water recharge from streamflow in Fortymile Wash near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Savard, C.S.

1998-01-01

The two purposes of this report are to qualitatively document ground-water recharge from stream-flow in Fortymile Wash during the period 1969--95 from previously unpublished ground-water levels in boreholes in Fortymile Canyon during 1982--91 and 1995, and to quantitatively estimate the long-term ground-water recharge rate from streamflow in Fortymile Wash for four reaches of Fortymile Wash (Fortymile Canyon, upper Jackass Flats, lower Jackass Flats, and Amargosa Desert). The long-term groundwater recharge rate was estimated from estimates of the volume of water available for infiltration, the volume of infiltration losses from streamflow, the ground-water recharge volume from infiltration losses, and an analysis of the different periods of data availability. The volume of water available for infiltration and ground-water recharge in the four reaches was estimated from known streamflow in ephemeral Fortymile Wash, which was measured at several gaging station locations. The volume of infiltration losses from streamflow for the four reaches was estimated from a streamflow volume loss factor applied to the estimated streamflows. the ground-water recharge volume was estimated from a linear relation between infiltration loss volume and ground-water recharge volume for each of the four reaches. Ground-water recharge rates were estimated for three different periods of data availability (1969--95, 1983--95, and 1992--95) and a long-term ground-water recharge rate estimated for each of the four reaches

Estimated ground-water recharge from streamflow in Fortymile Wash near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Savard, C.S.

1998-10-01

The two purposes of this report are to qualitatively document ground-water recharge from stream-flow in Fortymile Wash during the period 1969--95 from previously unpublished ground-water levels in boreholes in Fortymile Canyon during 1982--91 and 1995, and to quantitatively estimate the long-term ground-water recharge rate from streamflow in Fortymile Wash for four reaches of Fortymile Wash (Fortymile Canyon, upper Jackass Flats, lower Jackass Flats, and Amargosa Desert). The long-term groundwater recharge rate was estimated from estimates of the volume of water available for infiltration, the volume of infiltration losses from streamflow, the ground-water recharge volume from infiltration losses, and an analysis of the different periods of data availability. The volume of water available for infiltration and ground-water recharge in the four reaches was estimated from known streamflow in ephemeral Fortymile Wash, which was measured at several gaging station locations. The volume of infiltration losses from streamflow for the four reaches was estimated from a streamflow volume loss factor applied to the estimated streamflows. the ground-water recharge volume was estimated from a linear relation between infiltration loss volume and ground-water recharge volume for each of the four reaches. Ground-water recharge rates were estimated for three different periods of data availability (1969--95, 1983--95, and 1992--95) and a long-term ground-water recharge rate estimated for each of the four reaches.

Characterization of fluorinated silica thin films with ultra-low refractive index deposited at low temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abbasi-Firouzjah, Marzieh [Semnan Science and Technology Park, 3614933578, Shahrood (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shokri, Babak, E-mail: b-shokri@sbu.ac.ir [Laser & Plasma Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran 1983963113 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Physics Department, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran 1983963113 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2015-02-27

Structural and optical properties of low refractive index fluorinated silica (SiO{sub x}C{sub y}F{sub z}) films were investigated. The films were deposited on p-type silicon and polycarbonate substrates by radio frequency plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition method at low temperatures. A mixture of tetraethoxysilane vapor, oxygen, and CF{sub 4} was used for deposition of the films. The influence of oxygen flow rate on the elemental compositions, chemical bonding states and surface roughness of the films was studied using energy dispersive X-ray analyzer, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy in reflectance mode and atomic force microscopy, respectively. Effects of chemical bonds of the film matrix on optical properties and chemical stability were discussed. Energy dispersive spectroscopy showed high fluorine content in the SiO{sub x}C{sub y}F{sub z} film matrix which is in the range of 7.6–11.3%. It was concluded that in fluorine content lower than a certain limit, chemical stability of the film enhances, while higher contents of fluorine heighten moisture absorption followed by increasing refractive index. All of the deposited films were highly transparent. Finally, it was found that the refractive index of the SiO{sub x}C{sub y}F{sub z} film was continuously decreased with the increase of the O{sub 2} flow rate down to the minimum value of 1.16 ± 0.01 (at 632.8 nm) having the most ordered and nano-void structure and the least organic impurities. This sample also had the most chemical stability against moisture absorption. - Highlights: • Low deposition temperature and organic precursor led to higher film fluorination. • High fluorine and nanovoid structure led to drastic decrease in the refractive index. • Silica based thin film with ultralow refractive index of 1.16 was produced. • The produced ultralow-n film is highly stable against moisture absorption.

Potential effects of timber harvest and water management on streamflow dynamics and sediment transport

Science.gov (United States)

C. A. Troendle; W. K. Olsen

1994-01-01

The sustainability of aquatic and riparian ecological systems is strongly tied to the dynamics of the streamflow regime. Timber harvest can influence the flow regime by increasing total flow, altering peak discharge rate, and changing the duration of flows of differing frequency of occurrence. These changes in the energy and sediment transporting capability of the...

Restoring Natural Streamflow Variability by Modifying Multi-purpose Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Shiau, J.

2010-12-01

Multi-purpose reservoirs typically provide benefits of water supply, hydroelectric power, and flood mitigation. Hydroelectric power generations generally do not consume water. However, temporal distribution of downstream flows is highly changed due to hydro-peaking effects. Associated with offstream diversion of water supplies for municipal, industrial, and agricultural requirements, natural streamflow characteristics of magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change is significantly altered by multi-purpose reservoir operation. Natural flow regime has long been recognized a master factor for ecosystem health and biodiversity. Restoration of altered flow regime caused by multi-purpose reservoir operation is the main objective of this study. This study presents an optimization framework that modifying reservoir operation to seeking balance between human and environmental needs. The methodology presented in this study is applied to the Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, with main purpose of providing stable water-supply and auxiliary purpose of electricity generation and flood-peak attenuation. Reservoir releases are dominated by two decision variables, i.e., duration of water releases for each day and percentage of daily required releases within the duration. The current releasing policy of the Feitsui Reservoir releases water for water-supply and hydropower purposes during 8:00 am to 16:00 pm each day and no environmental flows releases. Although greater power generation is obtained by 100% releases distributed within 8-hour period, severe temporal alteration of streamflow is observed downstream of the reservoir. Modifying reservoir operation by relaxing these two variables and reserve certain ratio of streamflow as environmental flow to maintain downstream natural variability. The optimal reservoir releasing policy is searched by the multi-criterion decision making technique for considering reservoir performance in terms of shortage ratio

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

Valuation of index-linked cash flows in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework

OpenAIRE

Alm, Jonas; Lindskog, Filip

2015-01-01

In this paper, we study the valuation of stochastic cash flows that exhibit dependence on interest rates. We focus on insurance liability cash flows linked to an index, such as a consumer price index or wage index, where changes in the index value can be partially understood in terms of changes in the term structure of interest rates. Insurance liability cash flows that are not explicitly linked to an index may still be valued in our framework by interpreting index returns as so-called claims...

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

2008-01-01

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

Science.gov (United States)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

2017-12-01

Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

Modification of Low Refractive Index Polycarbonate for High Refractive Index Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gunjan Suri

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Polycarbonates and polythiourethanes are the most popular materials in use today, for optical applications. Polycarbonates are of two types which fall in the category of low refractive index and medium refractive index. The present paper describes the conversion of low refractive index polycarbonates into high refractive index material by the use of a high refractive index monomer, polythiol, as an additive. Novel polycarbonates, where the properties of refractive index and Abbe number can be tailor made, have been obtained. Thermal studies and refractive index determination indicate the formation of a new polymer with improved properties and suitable for optical applications.

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM – Part 2: Quality control, time-series indices and homogeneity assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Gudmundsson

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This is Part 2 of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM, which is a collection of daily streamflow observations at more than 30 000 stations around the world. While Part 1 (Do et al., 2018a describes the data collection process as well as the generation of auxiliary catchment data (e.g. catchment boundary, land cover, mean climate, Part 2 introduces a set of quality controlled time-series indices representing (i the water balance, (ii the seasonal cycle, (iii low flows and (iv floods. To this end we first consider the quality of individual daily records using a combination of quality flags from data providers and automated screening methods. Subsequently, streamflow time-series indices are computed for yearly, seasonal and monthly resolution. The paper provides a generalized assessment of the homogeneity of all generated streamflow time-series indices, which can be used to select time series that are suitable for a specific task. The newly generated global set of streamflow time-series indices is made freely available with an digital object identifier at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470 and is expected to foster global freshwater research, by acting as a ground truth for model validation or as a basis for assessing the role of human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle. It is hoped that a renewed interest in streamflow data at the global scale will foster efforts in the systematic assessment of data quality and provide momentum to overcome administrative barriers that lead to inconsistencies in global collections of relevant hydrological observations.

Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

Science.gov (United States)

Guay, Joel R.

2002-01-01

mean annual streamflow for the State Street gaging station at the outlet of the study basin and the simulated mean annual basin infiltration (combined infiltration from all the channels and land surfaces) were 8,720 and 41,600 acre-feet, respectively, for water years 1950-98. Simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station ranged from 16.8 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 70,400 acre-feet in water year 1993, and simulated basin infiltration ranged from 2,770 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 149,000 acre-feet in water year 1983.The effects of increased urbanization on the hydrology of the study basin were evaluated by increasing the size of the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas simulated in the calibrated rainfall-runoff model by 50 and 100 percent, respectively. The rainfall-runoff model simulated a long-term time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces using daily rainfall and potential evaporation data for water years 1950?98. Increasing the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas by 100 percent resulted in a 5-percent increase in simulated mean annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station, and a 2.2-percent increase in simulated basin infiltration. Results of a frequency analysis of the simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station showed that when effective impervious and non-effective impervious areas were increased 100 percent, simulated annual streamflow increased about 100 percent for low-flow conditions and was unchanged for high-flow conditions. The simulated increase in streamflow at the State Street gaging station potentially could infiltrate along the stream channel further downstream, outside of the model area.

Valuation of Index-Linked Cash Flows in a Heath–Jarrow–Morton Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Alm

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study the valuation of stochastic cash flows that exhibit dependence on interest rates. We focus on insurance liability cash flows linked to an index, such as a consumer price index or wage index, where changes in the index value can be partially understood in terms of changes in the term structure of interest rates. Insurance liability cash flows that are not explicitly linked to an index may still be valued in our framework by interpreting index returns as so-called claims inflation, i.e., an increase in claims cost per sold insurance contract. We focus primarily on the case when a deep and liquid market for index-linked contracts is absent or when the market price data are unreliable. Firstly, we present an approach for assigning a monetary value to a stochastic cash flow that does not require full knowledge of the joint dynamics of the cash flow and the term structure of interest rates. Secondly, we investigate in detail model selection, estimation and validation in a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework. Finally, we analyze the effects of model uncertainty on the valuation of the cash flows and how forecasts of cash flows and interest rates translate into model parameters and affect the valuation.

Analysis of trends of water quality and streamflow in the Blackstone, Branch, Pawtuxet, and Pawcatuck Rivers, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, 1979 to 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Savoie, Jennifer G.; Mullaney, John R.; Bent, Gardner C.

2017-02-21

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from six water-quality-monitoring stations within three major river basins in Massachusetts and Rhode Island that flow into Narragansett Bay and Little Narragansett Bay were evaluated for water years 1979–2015. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, water-quality and streamflow data were evaluated with a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season smoothing method, which removes the effects of year-to-year variation in water-quality conditions due to variations in streamflow (discharge). Trends in annual mean, annual median, annual maximum, and annual 7-day minimum flows at four continuous streamgages were evaluated by using a time-series smoothing method for water years 1979–2015.Water quality at all monitoring stations changed over the study period. Decreasing trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during the period at most monitoring stations for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. Average flow-normalized loads for water years 1979–2015 decreased in the Blackstone River by up to 46 percent in total nitrogen, 17 percent in nitrite plus nitrate, and 69 percent in total phosphorus. The other rivers also had decreasing flow-normalized trends in nutrient concentrations and loads, except for the Pawtuxet River, which had an increasing trend in nitrite plus nitrate. Increasing trends in flow-normalized chloride concentrations and loads were observed during the study period at all of the rivers, with increases of more than 200 percent in the Blackstone River.Small increasing trends in annual mean daily streamflow were observed in 3 of the 4 rivers, with increases of 1.2 to 11 percent; however, the trends were not significant. All 4 rivers had decreases in streamflow for

Hydro-economic performances of streamflow withdrawal strategies: the case of small run-of-river power plants

Science.gov (United States)

Basso, Stefano; Lazzaro, Gianluca; Schirmer, Mario; Botter, Gianluca

2014-05-01

River flows withdrawals to supply small run-of-river hydropower plants have been increasing significantly in recent years - particularly in the Alpine area - as a consequence of public incentives aimed at enhancing energy production from renewable sources. This growth further raised the anthropic pressure in areas traditionally characterized by an intense exploitation of water resources, thereby triggering social conflicts among local communities, hydropower investors and public authorities. This brought to the attention of scientists and population the urgency for novel and quantitative tools for assessing the hydrologic impact of these type of plants, and trading between economic interests and ecologic concerns. In this contribution we propose an analytical framework that allows for the estimate of the streamflow availability for hydropower production and the selection of the run-of-river plant capacity, as well as the assessment of the related profitability and environmental impacts. The method highlights the key role of the streamflow variability in the design process, by showing the significance control of the coefficient of variation of daily flows on the duration of the optimal capacity of small run-of-river plants. Moreover, the analysis evidences a gap between energy and economic optimizations, which may result in the under-exploitation of the available hydropower potential at large scales. The disturbances to the natural flow regime produced between the intake and the outflow of run-of-river power plants are also estimated within the proposed framework. The altered hydrologic regime, described through the probability distribution and the correlation function of streamflows, is analytically expressed as a function of the natural regime for different management strategies. The deviations from pristine conditions of a set of hydrologic statistics are used, jointly with an economic index, to compare environmental and economic outcomes of alternative plant

Low Transvalvular Flow Rate Predicts Mortality in Patients With Low-Gradient Aortic Stenosis Following Aortic Valve Intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Vamvakidou, Anastasia; Jin, Wenying; Danylenko, Oleksandr; Chahal, Navtej; Khattar, Rajdeep; Senior, Roxy

2018-03-09

This study aimed to assess the value of low transvalvular flow rate (FR) for the prediction of mortality compared with low stroke volume index (SVi) in patients with low-gradient (mean gradient: gradient AS who had undergone valve intervention. We retrospectively followed prospectively assessed consecutive patients with low-gradient, low aortic valve area AS who underwent aortic valve intervention between 2010 and 2014 for all-cause mortality. Of the 218 patients with mean age 75 ± 12 years, 102 (46.8%) had low stroke volume index (SVi) (gradient, low valve area aortic stenosis undergoing aortic valve intervention, low FR, not low SVi, was an independent predictor of medium-term mortality. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50

How do extreme streamflow due to hurricane IRMA compare during 1938-2017 in South Eastern US?

Science.gov (United States)

Anandhi, A.

2017-12-01

The question related to Irma, Harvey, Maria, and other hurricanes is: are hurricane more frequent and intense than they have been in the past. Recent hurricanes were unusually strong hitting the US Coastline or territories as a category 4 or 5, dropping unusually large amounts of precipitation on the affected areas creating extreme high-flow events in rivers and streams in affected areas. The objective of the study is to determine how extreme are streamflows from recent hurricanes (e.g. IRMA) when compared to streamflow's during 1938-2017 time-period. Additionally, in this study, the extreme precipitations are also compared during IRMA. Extreme high flows are selected from Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). They are distributions, timing, duration, frequency, magnitude, pulses, and days of extreme events in rivers of the southeastern United States and Gulf of Mexico Hydrologic Region—03. Streamflow data from 30 stations in the region with at least 79 years of record (1938-2017) are used. Historical precipitation changes is obtained from meta-analysis of published literature. Our preliminary results indicate the extremeness of streamflow from recent hurricanes vary with the IHA indicator selected. Some potential implications of these extreme events on the region's ecosystem are also discussed using causal chains and loops.

Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Abram, Nerilie; Ummenhofer, Caroline; Palmer, Jonathan; Mudelsee, Manfred

2011-02-01

The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum's streamflow record, only ~45 years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September-November Citarum streamflow (AD 1759-2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from ~1905-1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920-1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country's rice is grown.

The impact of hydraulic flow unit & reservoir quality index on pressure profile and productivity index in multi-segments reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salam Al-Rbeawi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is studying the impact of the hydraulic flow unit and reservoir quality index (RQI on pressure profile and productivity index of horizontal wells acting in finite reservoirs. Several mathematical models have been developed to investigate this impact. These models have been built based on the pressure distribution in porous media, depleted by a horizontal well, consist of multi hydraulic flow units and different reservoir quality index. The porous media are assumed to be finite rectangular reservoirs having different configurations and the wellbores may have different lengths. Several analytical models describing flow regimes have been derived wherein hydraulic flow units and reservoir quality index have been included in addition to rock and fluid properties. The impact of these two parameters on reservoir performance has also been studied using steady state productivity index.It has been found that both pressure responses and flow regimes are highly affected by the existence of multiple hydraulic flow units in the porous media and the change in reservoir quality index for these units. Positive change in the RQI could lead to positive change in both pressure drop required for reservoir fluids to move towards the wellbore and hence the productivity index.

Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

2017-12-01

The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and

Streamflow investigations on a reach of Hobble Creek near Springville, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Gerner, Steven J.

2017-07-27

The Central Utah Water Conservancy District (CUWCD) is proposing to deliver supplemental flow to Hobble Creek from Strawberry Reservoir through the Mapleton-Springville Lateral pipeline. A substantial portion of the supplemental water is intended to benefit June Sucker recovery and other fish and wildlife along Hobble Creek. The objective of this study was to determine gains or losses of water in a section of Hobble Creek between the Island Dam and the Swenson Dam (the primary study reach) during different seasons and flow conditions.Paired measurements of flow in Hobble Creek were made during June to November 2016, at sites bracketing the primary study reach from site HC3 to HC6. These measurements showed increased streamflow in this reach that ranged from 6.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) to 9.3 ft3/s. During August and November, two sets of measurements were made at several locations along the study reach to document baseline conditions, and then an additional amount of water (a pulse of about 9–10 ft3/s) from Strawberry Reservoir through the Mapleton-Springville Lateral pipeline, was added to the reach. During the August 23 measurements, the average change at the upstream site (HC3) relative to the pulse was 9.3 ft3/s, and the average change at the downstream site (HC6) was about 8.4 ft3/s, leaving about 0.9 ft3/s of the additional water unaccounted for at site HC6. However, there was no significant difference between the net streamflow volume at sites HC3 and HC6 associated with the pulse that would indicate water was being lost. During the November 7–9 streamflow measurements, the average change in discharge at site HC3 relative to an increase in flow from the Mapleton-Springville Lateral pipeline (the pulse) was 9.6 ft3/s, and the average change at site HC6 was about 9.8 ft3/s. On the basis of these measurements it appears that the entire amount of the pulse added to the stream at site HC3 was accounted for at site HC6. Additionally, there was no

Modeling multisite streamflow dependence with maximum entropy copula

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Z.; Singh, V. P.

2013-10-01

Synthetic streamflows at different sites in a river basin are needed for planning, operation, and management of water resources projects. Modeling the temporal and spatial dependence structure of monthly streamflow at different sites is generally required. In this study, the maximum entropy copula method is proposed for multisite monthly streamflow simulation, in which the temporal and spatial dependence structure is imposed as constraints to derive the maximum entropy copula. The monthly streamflows at different sites are then generated by sampling from the conditional distribution. A case study for the generation of monthly streamflow at three sites in the Colorado River basin illustrates the application of the proposed method. Simulated streamflow from the maximum entropy copula is in satisfactory agreement with observed streamflow.

A comparison of methods to predict historical daily streamflow time series in the southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, William H.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Kiang, Julie E.

2015-01-01

Effective and responsible management of water resources relies on a thorough understanding of the quantity and quality of available water. Streamgages cannot be installed at every location where streamflow information is needed. As part of its National Water Census, the U.S. Geological Survey is planning to provide streamflow predictions for ungaged locations. In order to predict streamflow at a useful spatial and temporal resolution throughout the Nation, efficient methods need to be selected. This report examines several methods used for streamflow prediction in ungaged basins to determine the best methods for regional and national implementation. A pilot area in the southeastern United States was selected to apply 19 different streamflow prediction methods and evaluate each method by a wide set of performance metrics. Through these comparisons, two methods emerged as the most generally accurate streamflow prediction methods: the nearest-neighbor implementations of nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (NN-QPPQ) and standardizing logarithms of streamflow by monthly means and standard deviations (NN-SMS12L). It was nearly impossible to distinguish between these two methods in terms of performance. Furthermore, neither of these methods requires significantly more parameterization in order to be applied: NN-SMS12L requires 24 regional regressions—12 for monthly means and 12 for monthly standard deviations. NN-QPPQ, in the application described in this study, required 27 regressions of particular quantiles along the flow duration curve. Despite this finding, the results suggest that an optimal streamflow prediction method depends on the intended application. Some methods are stronger overall, while some methods may be better at predicting particular statistics. The methods of analysis presented here reflect a possible framework for continued analysis and comprehensive multiple comparisons of methods of prediction in ungaged basins (PUB

Low-index discontinuity terahertz waveguides

Science.gov (United States)

Nagel, Michael; Marchewka, Astrid; Kurz, Heinrich

2006-10-01

A new type of dielectric THz waveguide based on recent approaches in the field of integrated optics is presented with theoretical and experimental results. Although the guiding mechanism of the low-index discontinuity (LID) THz waveguide is total internal reflection, the THz wave is predominantly confined in the virtually lossless low-index air gap within a high-index dielectric waveguide due to the continuity of electric flux density at the dielectric interface. Attenuation, dispersion and single-mode confinement properties of two LID structures are discussed and compared with other THz waveguide solutions. The new approach provides an outstanding combination of high mode confinement and low transmission losses currently not realizable with any other metal-based or photonic crystal approach. These exceptional properties might enable the breakthrough of novel integrated THz systems or endoscopy applications with sub-wavelength resolution.

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

2018-04-01

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Sando, Steven K.; Morgan, Timothy J.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2009-01-01

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide

Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

Science.gov (United States)

Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

2015-07-01

Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

Quantification of disturbed coronary flow by disturbed vorticity index and relation with fractional flow reserve

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chu, Miao; von Birgelen, Clemens; Li, Yingguang

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The relation between FFR and local coronary flow patterns is incompletely understood. We aimed at developing a novel hemodynamic index to quantify disturbed coronary flow, and to investigate its relationship with lesion-associated pressure-drop, and fractional flow reserve (F...

Reconstructed streamflow for Citarum River, Java, Indonesia: linkages to tropical climate dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D' Arrigo, Rosanne [Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Abram, Nerilie [The Australian National University, Research School of Earth Sciences, Canberra (Australia); Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Ummenhofer, Caroline [University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Palmer, Jonathan [Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory, Canterbury (New Zealand); Mudelsee, Manfred [Climate Risk Analysis, Hannover (Germany)

2011-02-15

The Citarum river basin of western Java, Indonesia, which supplies water to 10 million residents in Jakarta, has become increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Citarum's streamflow record, only {proportional_to}45 years in length (1963-present), is too short for understanding the full range of hydrometeorological variability in this important region. Here we present a tree-ring based reconstruction of September-November Citarum streamflow (AD 1759-2006), one of the first such records available for monsoon Asia. Close coupling is observed between decreased tree growth and low streamflow levels, which in turn are associated with drought caused by ENSO warm events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean positive dipole-type variability. Over the full length of record, reconstructed variance was at its weakest during the interval from {proportional_to}1905-1960, overlapping with a period of unusually-low variability (1920-1960) in the ENSO-Indian Ocean dipole systems. In subsequent decades, increased variance in both the streamflow anomalies and a coral-based SST reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode signal the potential for intensified drought activity and related consequences for water supply and crop productivity in western Java, where much of the country's rice is grown. (orig.)

A comprehensive analysis of high-magnitude streamflow and trends in the Central Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Kocis, T. N.; Dahlke, H. E.

2017-12-01

California's climate is characterized by the largest precipitation and streamflow variability observed within the conterminous US. This, combined with chronic groundwater overdraft of 0.6-3.5 km3 yr-1, creates the need to identify additional surface water sources available for groundwater recharge using methods such as agricultural groundwater banking, aquifer storage and recovery, and spreading basins. High-magnitude streamflow, i.e. flow above the 90th percentile, that exceeds environmental flow requirements and current surface water allocations under California water rights, could be a viable source of surface water for groundwater banking. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of high-magnitude streamflow (HMF "metrics") over multiple time periods for 93 stream gauges covering the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare basins in California. In addition, we present trend analyses conducted on the same dataset and all HMF metrics using generalized additive models, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and the Signal to Noise Ratio test. The results of the comprehensive analysis show, in short, that in an average year with HMF approximately 3.2 km3 of high-magnitude flow is exported from the entire Central Valley to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, often at times when environmental flow requirements of the Delta and major rivers are exceeded. High-magnitude flow occurs, on average, during 7 and 4.7 out of 10 years in the Sacramento River and the San Joaquin-Tulare Basins, respectively, from just a few storm events (5-7 1-day peak events) lasting for a total of 25-30 days between November and April. Preliminary trend tests suggest that all HMF metrics show limited change over the last 50 years. As a whole, the results suggest that there is sufficient unmanaged surface water physically available to mitigate long-term groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley.

How uncertainty analysis of streamflow data can reduce costs and promote robust decisions in water management applications

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Hilary; Seibert, Jan; Petersen-Overleir, Asgeir; Lang, Michel; White, Paul; Snelder, Ton; Rutherford, Kit; Krueger, Tobias; Mason, Robert; Kiang, Julie

2017-07-01

Streamflow data are used for important environmental and economic decisions, such as specifying and regulating minimum flows, managing water supplies, and planning for flood hazards. Despite significant uncertainty in most flow data, the flow series for these applications are often communicated and used without uncertainty information. In this commentary, we argue that proper analysis of uncertainty in river flow data can reduce costs and promote robust conclusions in water management applications. We substantiate our argument by providing case studies from Norway and New Zealand where streamflow uncertainty analysis has uncovered economic costs in the hydropower industry, improved public acceptance of a controversial water management policy, and tested the accuracy of water quality trends. We discuss the need for practical uncertainty assessment tools that generate multiple flow series realizations rather than simple error bounds. Although examples of such tools are in development, considerable barriers for uncertainty analysis and communication still exist for practitioners, and future research must aim to provide easier access and usability of uncertainty estimates. We conclude that flow uncertainty analysis is critical for good water management decisions.

Estimation of tile drainage contribution to streamflow and nutrient loads at the watershed scale based on continuously monitored data.

Science.gov (United States)

Arenas Amado, A; Schilling, K E; Jones, C S; Thomas, N; Weber, L J

2017-09-01

Nitrogen losses from artificially drained watersheds degrade water quality at local and regional scales. In this study, we used an end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) together with high temporal resolution water quality and streamflow data collected in the 122 km 2 Otter Creek watershed located in northeast Iowa. We estimated the contribution of three end-members (groundwater, tile drainage, and quick flow) to streamflow and nitrogen loads and tested several combinations of possible nitrate concentrations for the end-members. Results indicated that subsurface tile drainage is responsible for at least 50% of the watershed nitrogen load between April 15 and November 1, 2015. Tiles delivered up to 80% of the stream N load while providing only 15-43% of the streamflow, whereas quick flows only marginally contributed to N loading. Data collected offer guidance about areas of the watershed that should be targeted for nitrogen export mitigation strategies.

Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modelling heteroscedastic residual errors

Science.gov (United States)

David, McInerney; Mark, Thyer; Dmitri, Kavetski; George, Kuczera

2017-04-01

This study provides guidance to hydrological researchers which enables them to provide probabilistic predictions of daily streamflow with the best reliability and precision for different catchment types (e.g. high/low degree of ephemerality). Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. It is commonly known that hydrological model residual errors are heteroscedastic, i.e. there is a pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. Although multiple approaches exist for representing this heteroscedasticity, few studies have undertaken a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of these approaches. This study fills this research gap by evaluating 8 common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter, lambda) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and USA, and two lumped hydrological models. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modelling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with lambda of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (lambda=0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

Topography significantly influencing low flows in snow-dominated watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qiang; Wei, Xiaohua; Yang, Xin; Giles-Hansen, Krysta; Zhang, Mingfang; Liu, Wenfei

2018-03-01

Watershed topography plays an important role in determining the spatial heterogeneity of ecological, geomorphological, and hydrological processes. Few studies have quantified the role of topography in various flow variables. In this study, 28 watersheds with snow-dominated hydrological regimes were selected with daily flow records from 1989 to 1996. These watersheds are located in the Southern Interior of British Columbia, Canada, and range in size from 2.6 to 1780 km2. For each watershed, 22 topographic indices (TIs) were derived, including those commonly used in hydrology and other environmental fields. Flow variables include annual mean flow (Qmean), Q10 %, Q25 %, Q50 %, Q75 %, Q90 %, and annual minimum flow (Qmin), where Qx % is defined as the daily flow that occurred each year at a given percentage (x). Factor analysis (FA) was first adopted to exclude some redundant or repetitive TIs. Then, multiple linear regression models were employed to quantify the relative contributions of TIs to each flow variable in each year. Our results show that topography plays a more important role in low flows (flow magnitudes ≤ Q75 %) than high flows. However, the effects of TIs on different flow magnitudes are not consistent. Our analysis also determined five significant TIs: perimeter, slope length factor, surface area, openness, and terrain characterization index. These can be used to compare watersheds when low flow assessments are conducted, specifically in snow-dominated regions with the watershed size less than several thousand square kilometres.

Streamflow variability and optimal capacity of run-of-river hydropower plants

Science.gov (United States)

Basso, S.; Botter, G.

2012-10-01

The identification of the capacity of a run-of-river plant which allows for the optimal utilization of the available water resources is a challenging task, mainly because of the inherent temporal variability of river flows. This paper proposes an analytical framework to describe the energy production and the economic profitability of small run-of-river power plants on the basis of the underlying streamflow regime. We provide analytical expressions for the capacity which maximize the produced energy as a function of the underlying flow duration curve and minimum environmental flow requirements downstream of the plant intake. Similar analytical expressions are derived for the capacity which maximize the economic return deriving from construction and operation of a new plant. The analytical approach is applied to a minihydro plant recently proposed in a small Alpine catchment in northeastern Italy, evidencing the potential of the method as a flexible and simple design tool for practical application. The analytical model provides useful insight on the major hydrologic and economic controls (e.g., streamflow variability, energy price, costs) on the optimal plant capacity and helps in identifying policy strategies to reduce the current gap between the economic and energy optimizations of run-of-river plants.

Estimates of natural streamflow at two streamgages on the Esopus Creek, New York, water years 1932 to 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Douglas A.; Gazoorian, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

Streamflow in the Esopus Creek watershed is altered by two major watershed management activities carried out by the New York City Department of Environmental Protection as part of its responsibility to maintain a water supply for New York City: (1) diversion of water from the Schoharie Creek watershed to the Esopus Creek through the Shandaken Tunnel, and (2) impoundment of the Esopus Creek by a dam that forms the Ashokan Reservoir and subsequent release through the Catskill Aqueduct. Stakeholders in the Catskill region are interested and concerned about the extent to which these watershed management activities have altered streamflow, especially low and high flows, in the Esopus Creek. To address these concerns, natural (in the absence of diversion and impoundment) daily discharge from October 1, 1931, to September 30, 2012, was estimated for the U.S. Geological Survey streamgages at Coldbrook (station number 01362500), downstream of the Shandaken Tunnel discharge, and at Mount Marion (01364500), downstream of the Ashokan Reservoir.

Continuity vs. the Crowd-Tradeoffs Between Continuous and Intermittent Citizen Hydrology Streamflow Observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Davids, Jeffrey C; van de Giesen, Nick; Rutten, Martine

2017-07-01

Hydrologic data has traditionally been collected with permanent installations of sophisticated and accurate but expensive monitoring equipment at limited numbers of sites. Consequently, observation frequency and costs are high, but spatial coverage of the data is limited. Citizen Hydrology can possibly overcome these challenges by leveraging easily scaled mobile technology and local residents to collect hydrologic data at many sites. However, understanding of how decreased observational frequency impacts the accuracy of key streamflow statistics such as minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff is limited. To evaluate this impact, we randomly selected 50 active United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges in California. We used 7 years of historical 15-min flow data from 2008 to 2014 to develop minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff values for each gauge. To mimic lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations, we developed a bootstrap randomized subsampling with replacement procedure. We calculated the same statistics, and their respective distributions, from 50 subsample iterations with four different subsampling frequencies ranging from daily to monthly. Minimum flows were estimated within 10% for half of the subsample iterations at 39 (daily) and 23 (monthly) of the 50 sites. However, maximum flows were estimated within 10% at only 7 (daily) and 0 (monthly) sites. Runoff volumes were estimated within 10% for half of the iterations at 44 (daily) and 12 (monthly) sites. Watershed flashiness most strongly impacted accuracy of minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff estimates from subsampled data. Depending on the questions being asked, lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations can provide useful hydrologic information.

Hydrology and numerical simulation of groundwater flow and streamflow depletion by well withdrawals in the Malad-Lower Bear River Area, Box Elder County, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Stolp, Bernard J.; Brooks, Lynette E.; Solder, John

2017-03-28

The Malad-Lower Bear River study area in Box Elder County, Utah, consists of a valley bounded by mountain ranges and is mostly agricultural or undeveloped. The Bear and Malad Rivers enter the study area with a combined average flow of about 1,100,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr), and this surface water dominates the hydrology. Groundwater occurs in consolidated rock and basin fill. Groundwater recharge occurs from precipitation in the mountains and moves through consolidated rock to the basin fill. Recharge occurs in the valley from irrigation. Groundwater discharge occurs to rivers, springs and diffuse seepage areas, evapotranspiration, field drains, and wells. Groundwater, including springs, is a source for municipal and domestic water supply. Although withdrawal from wells is a small component of the groundwater budget, there is concern that additional groundwater development will reduce the amount of flow in the Malad River. Historical records of surface-water diversions, land use, and groundwater levels indicate relatively stable hydrologic conditions from the 1960s to the 2010s, and that current groundwater development has had little effect on the groundwater system. Average annual recharge to and discharge from the groundwater flow system are estimated to be 164,000 and 228,000 acre-ft/yr, respectively. The imbalance between recharge and discharge represents uncertainties resulting from system complexities, and the possibility of groundwater inflow from surrounding basins.This study reassesses the hydrologic system, refines the groundwater budget, and creates a numerical groundwater flow model that is used to analyze the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface water. The model uses the detailed catalog of locations and amounts of groundwater recharge and discharge defined during this study. Calibrating the model to adequately simulate recharge, discharge, and groundwater levels results in simulated aquifer properties that can be used to understand

Hydrologic classification of rivers based on cluster analysis of dimensionless hydrologic signatures: Applications for environmental instream flows

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Praskievicz, S. J.; Luo, C.

2017-12-01

Classification of rivers is useful for a variety of purposes, such as generating and testing hypotheses about watershed controls on hydrology, predicting hydrologic variables for ungaged rivers, and setting goals for river management. In this research, we present a bottom-up (based on machine learning) river classification designed to investigate the underlying physical processes governing rivers' hydrologic regimes. The classification was developed for the entire state of Alabama, based on 248 United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages that met criteria for length and completeness of records. Five dimensionless hydrologic signatures were derived for each gage: slope of the flow duration curve (indicator of flow variability), baseflow index (ratio of baseflow to average streamflow), rising limb density (number of rising limbs per unit time), runoff ratio (ratio of long-term average streamflow to long-term average precipitation), and streamflow elasticity (sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation). We used a Bayesian clustering algorithm to classify the gages, based on the five hydrologic signatures, into distinct hydrologic regimes. We then used classification and regression trees (CART) to predict each gaged river's membership in different hydrologic regimes based on climatic and watershed variables. Using existing geospatial data, we applied the CART analysis to classify ungaged streams in Alabama, with the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) catchment (average area 3 km2) as the unit of classification. The results of the classification can be used for meeting management and conservation objectives in Alabama, such as developing statewide standards for environmental instream flows. Such hydrologic classification approaches are promising for contributing to process-based understanding of river systems.

Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

2007-01-01

A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

Predictability of soil moisture and streamflow on subseasonal timescales: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2013-10-01

Hydrological forecasts constitute an important tool in water resource management, especially in the case of impending extreme events. This study investigates the potential predictability of soil moisture and streamflow in Switzerland using a conceptual model including a simple water balance representation and a snow module. Our results show that simulated soil moisture and streamflow are more predictable (as indicated by significantly improved performance compared to climatology) until lead times of approximately 1 week and 2-3 days, respectively, when using initial soil moisture information and climatological atmospheric forcing. Using also initial snow information and seasonal weather forecasts as forcing, the predictable lead time doubles in case of soil moisture and triples for streamflow. The skill contributions of the additional information vary with altitude; at low altitudes the precipitation forecast is most important, whereas in mountainous areas the temperature forecast and the initial snow information are the most valuable contributors. We find furthermore that the soil moisture and streamflow forecast skills increase with increasing initial soil moisture anomalies. Comparing the respective value of realistic initial conditions and state-of-the-art forcing forecasts, we show that the former are generally more important for soil moisture forecasts, whereas the latter are more valuable for streamflow forecasts. To relate the derived predictabilities to respective soil moisture and streamflow memories investigated in other publications, we additionally illustrate the similarity between the concepts of memory and predictability as measures of persistence in the last part of this study.

Simulated responses of streams and ponds to groundwater withdrawals and wastewater return flows in southeastern Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Carl S.; Walter, Donald A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2015-12-21

Water use, such as withdrawals, wastewater return flows, and interbasin transfers, can alter streamflow regimes, water quality, and the integrity of aquatic habitat and affect the availability of water for human and ecosystem needs. To provide the information needed to determine alteration of streamflows and pond water levels in southeastern Massachusetts, existing groundwater models of the Plymouth-Carver region and western (Sagamore flow lens) and eastern (Monomoy flow lens) Cape Cod were used to delineate subbasins and simulate long-term average and average monthly streamflows and pond levels for a series of water-use conditions. Model simulations were used to determine the extent to which streamflows and pond levels were altered by comparing simulated streamflows and pond levels under predevelopment conditions with streamflows and pond levels under pumping only and pumping with wastewater return flow conditions. The pumping and wastewater return flow rates used in this study are the same as those used in previously published U.S. Geological Survey studies in southeastern Massachusetts and represent the period from 2000 to 2005. Streamflow alteration for the nontidal portions of streams in southeastern Massachusetts was evaluated within and at the downstream outlets of 78 groundwater subbasins delineated for this study. Evaluation of streamflow alteration at subbasin outlets is consistent with the approach used by the U.S. Geological Survey for the topographically derived subbasins in the rest of Massachusetts.

A potential approach for low flow selection in water resource supply and management

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Ying

2012-08-01

SummaryLow flow selections are essential to water resource management, water supply planning, and watershed ecosystem restoration. In this study, a new approach, namely the frequent-low (FL) approach (or frequent-low index), was developed based on the minimum frequent-low flow or level used in minimum flows and/or levels program in northeast Florida, USA. This FL approach was then compared to the conventional 7Q10 approach for low flow selections prior to its applications, using the USGS flow data from the freshwater environment (Big Sunflower River, Mississippi) as well as from the estuarine environment (St. Johns River, Florida). Unlike the FL approach that is associated with the biological and ecological impacts, the 7Q10 approach could lead to the selections of extremely low flows (e.g., near-zero flows) that may hinder its use for establishing criteria to prevent streams from significant harm to biological and ecological communities. Additionally, the 7Q10 approach could not be used when the period of data records is less than 10 years by definition while this may not the case for the FL approach. Results from both approaches showed that the low flows from the Big Sunflower River and the St. Johns River decreased as time elapsed, demonstrating that these two rivers have become drier during the last several decades with a potential of salted water intrusion to the St. Johns River. Results from the FL approach further revealed that the recurrence probability of low flow increased while the recurrence interval of low flow decreased as time elapsed in both rivers, indicating that low flows occurred more frequent in these rivers as time elapsed. This report suggests that the FL approach, developed in this study, is a useful alternative for low flow selections in addition to the 7Q10 approach.

Classification Scheme for Centuries of Reconstructed Streamflow Droughts in Water Resources Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Stagge, J.; Rosenberg, D. E.

2017-12-01

New advances in reconstructing streamflow from tree rings have permitted the reconstruction of flows back to the 1400s or earlier at a monthly, rather than annual, time scale. This is a critical step for incorporating centuries of streamflow reconstructions into water resources planning. Expanding the historical record is particularly important where the observed record contains few of these rare, but potentially disastrous extreme events. We present how a paleo-drought clustering approach was incorporated alongside more traditional water management planning in the Weber River basin, northern Utah. This study used newly developed monthly reconstructions of flow since 1430 CE and defined drought events as flow less than the 50th percentile during at least three contiguous months. Characteristics for each drought event included measures of drought duration, severity, cumulative loss, onset, seasonality, recession rate, and recovery rate. Reconstructed drought events were then clustered by hierarchical clustering to determine distinct drought "types" and the historical event that best represents the centroid of each cluster. The resulting 144 reconstructed drought events in the Weber basin clustered into nine distinct types, of which four were severe enough to potentially require drought management. Using the characteristic drought event for each of the severe drought clusters, water managers were able to estimate system reliability and the historical return frequency for each drought type. Plotting drought duration and severity from centuries of historical reconstructed events alongside observed events and climate change projections further placed recent events into a historical context. For example, the drought of record for the Weber River remains the most severe event in the record with regard to minimum flow percentile (1930, 7 years), but is far from the longest event in the longer historical record, where events beginning in 1658 and 1705 both lasted longer

Dating of streamwater using tritium in a post nuclear bomb pulse world: continuous variation of mean transit time with streamflow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Morgenstern

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Tritium measurements of streamwater draining the Toenepi catchment, a small dairy farming area in Waikato, New Zealand, have shown that the mean transit time of the water varies with the flow rate of the stream. Mean transit times through the catchment are 2–5 years during high baseflow conditions in winter, increasing to 30–40 years as baseflow decreases in summer, and then dramatically older water during drought conditions with mean transit time of more than 100 years. Older water is gained in the lower reaches of the stream, compared to younger water in the headwater catchment. The groundwater store supplying baseflow was estimated from the mean transit time and average baseflow to be 15.4 × 10⁶ m³ of water, about 1 m water equivalent over the catchment and 2.3 times total annual streamflow. Nitrate is relatively high at higher flow rates in winter, but is low at times of low flow with old water. This reflects both lower nitrate loading in the catchment several decades ago as compared to current intensive dairy farming, and denitrification processes occurring in the older groundwater. Silica, leached from the aquifer material and accumulating in the water in proportion to contact time, is high at times of low streamflow with old water. There was a good correlation between silica concentration and streamwater age, which potentially allows silica concentrations to be used as a proxy for age when calibrated by tritium measurements. This study shows that tritium dating of stream water is possible with single tritium measurements now that bomb-test tritium has effectively disappeared from hydrological systems in New Zealand, without the need for time-series data.

Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

2018-02-01

Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

GIS-aided low flow mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Saghafian, B.; Mohammadi, A.

2003-04-01

Most studies involving water resources allocation, water quality, hydropower generation, and allowable water withdrawal and transfer require estimation of low flows. Normally, frequency analysis on at-station D-day low flow data is performed to derive various T-yr return period values. However, this analysis is restricted to the location of hydrometric stations where the flow discharge is measured. Regional analysis is therefore conducted to relate the at-station low flow quantiles to watershed characteristics. This enables the transposition of low flow quantiles to ungauged sites. Nevertheless, a procedure to map the regional regression relations for the entire stream network, within the bounds of the relations, is particularly helpful when one studies and weighs alternative sites for certain water resources project. In this study, we used a GIS-aided procedure for low flow mapping in Gilan province, part of northern region in Iran. Gilan enjoys a humid climate with an average of 1100 mm annual precipitation. Although rich in water resources, the highly populated area is quite dependent on minimum amount of water to sustain the vast rice farming and to maintain required flow discharge for quality purposes. To carry out the low flow analysis, a total of 36 hydrometric stations with sufficient and reliable discharge data were identified in the region. The average area of the watersheds was 250 sq. km. Log Pearson type 3 was found the best distribution for flow durations over 60 days, while log normal fitted well the shorter duration series. Low flows with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year were then computed. Cluster analysis identified two homogeneous areas. Although various watershed parameters were examined in factor analysis, the results showed watershed area, length of the main stream, and annual precipitation were the most effective low flow parameters. The regression equations were then mapped with the aid of GIS based on flow accumulation maps

Noninvasive measurement of an index of renal blood flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Powers, T.A.; Rees, R.S.; Bowen, R.D.

1983-01-01

A new technique for the noninvasive measurement of an index of renal blood flow is described. The method utilizes ultrasound determined renal volume and radionuclide assessment of the mean transit time of a pertechnetate bolus through the kidneys. From this information a value for flow is calculated according to compartmental analysis principles. There is good correlation between renal blood flow estimated by this technique and that determined by microsphere injection

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

Streamflow characteristics of a naturally drained forested watershed in southeast Atlantic coastal plain

Science.gov (United States)

Devendra M. Amatya; Carl C. Trettin

2010-01-01

Information about streamflow characteristics e.g. runoff-rainfall (R/O) ratio, rate and timing of flow, surface and subsurface drainage (SSD), and response time to rainfall events is necessary to accurately simulate fluxes and for designing best management practices (BMPs). Unfortunately, those data are scarce in the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain, a highly...

Simulation-optimization framework for multi-site multi-season hybrid stochastic streamflow modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastav, Roshan; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K. P.

2016-11-01

A simulation-optimization (S-O) framework is developed for the hybrid stochastic modeling of multi-site multi-season streamflows. The multi-objective optimization model formulated is the driver and the multi-site, multi-season hybrid matched block bootstrap model (MHMABB) is the simulation engine within this framework. The multi-site multi-season simulation model is the extension of the existing single-site multi-season simulation model. A robust and efficient evolutionary search based technique, namely, non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm (NSGA - II) is employed as the solution technique for the multi-objective optimization within the S-O framework. The objective functions employed are related to the preservation of the multi-site critical deficit run sum and the constraints introduced are concerned with the hybrid model parameter space, and the preservation of certain statistics (such as inter-annual dependence and/or skewness of aggregated annual flows). The efficacy of the proposed S-O framework is brought out through a case example from the Colorado River basin. The proposed multi-site multi-season model AMHMABB (whose parameters are obtained from the proposed S-O framework) preserves the temporal as well as the spatial statistics of the historical flows. Also, the other multi-site deficit run characteristics namely, the number of runs, the maximum run length, the mean run sum and the mean run length are well preserved by the AMHMABB model. Overall, the proposed AMHMABB model is able to show better streamflow modeling performance when compared with the simulation based SMHMABB model, plausibly due to the significant role played by: (i) the objective functions related to the preservation of multi-site critical deficit run sum; (ii) the huge hybrid model parameter space available for the evolutionary search and (iii) the constraint on the preservation of the inter-annual dependence. Split-sample validation results indicate that the AMHMABB model is

Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

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Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

2015-10-01

Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km2) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14 % of the catchment area (or 39 km2) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11 % (or -31 km2) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr-1, and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5 % (or 15 km2). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50 % of the 64 km2 of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.

Disentangling the response of streamflow to forest management and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Dymond, S.; Miniat, C.; Bladon, K. D.; Keppeler, E.; Caldwell, P. V.

2016-12-01

Paired watershed studies have showcased the relationships between forests, management, and streamflow. However, classical analyses of paired-watershed studies have done little to disentangle the effects of management from overarching climatic signals, potentially masking the interaction between management and climate. Such approaches may confound our understanding of how forest management impacts streamflow. Here we use a 50-year record of streamflow and climate data from the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds (CCEW), California, USA to separate the effects of forest management and climate on streamflow. CCEW has two treatment watersheds that have been harvested in the past 50 years. We used a nonlinear mixed model to combine the pre-treatment relationship between streamflow and climate and the post-treatment relationship via an interaction between climate and management into one equation. Our results show that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration alone can account for >95% of the variability in pre-treatment streamflow. Including management scenarios into the model explained most of the variability in streamflow (R2 > 0.98). While forest harvesting altered streamflow in both of our modeled watersheds, removing 66% of the vegetation via selection logging using a tractor yarding system over the entire watershed had a more substantial impact on streamflow than clearcutting small portions of a watershed using cable-yarding. These results suggest that forest harvesting may result in differing impacts on streamflow and highlights the need to incorporate climate into streamflow analyses of paired-watershed studies.

Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Gazoorian, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

The lakes, rivers, and streams of New York State provide an essential water resource for the State. The information provided by time series hydrologic data is essential to understanding ways to promote healthy instream ecology and to strengthen the scientific basis for sound water management decision making in New York. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, has developed the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool to estimate a daily mean hydrograph for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2010, at ungaged locations across the State. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool produces a complete estimated daily mean time series from which daily flow statistics can be estimated. In addition, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool provides a means for quantitative flow assessments at ungaged locations that can be used to address the objectives of the Clean Water Act—to restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters.

Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

Science.gov (United States)

Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

1998-01-01

An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow in the Snare River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, J. P.; Pisaric, M. F.

2017-12-01

Drought is a component of many ecosystems in North America causing environmental and socioeconomical impacts. In the ongoing context of climatic and environmental changes, drought-related issues are becoming problematic in northern Canada, which have not been associated with drought-like conditions in the past. Dryer than average conditions threatens the energy security of northern canadian communities, since this region relies on the production of hydroelectricity as an energy source. In the North Slave Region of Northwest Territory (NWT), water levels and streamflows were significantly lower in 2014/2015. The Government of the NWT had to spend nearly $50 million to purchase diesel fuel to generate enough electricity to supplement the reduced power generation of the Snare River hydroelectric system, hence the need to better understand the multi-decadal variability in streamflow. The aims of this presentation are i) to present jack pine and white spruce tree-ring chronologies of Southern NWT; ii) to reconstruct past streamflow of the Snare River Basin; iii) to evaluate the frequency and magnitude of extreme drought conditions, and iv) to identify which large-scale atmospheric or oceanic patterns are teleconnected to regional hydraulic conditions. Preliminary results show that the growth of jack pine and white spruce populations is better correlated with precipitation and temperature, respectively, than hydraulic conditions. Nonetheless, we present a robust streamflow reconstruction of the Snare River that is well correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, albeit the strength of the correlation is non-stationary. Spectral analysis corroborate the synchronicity between negative NAO conditions and drought conditions. From an operational standpoint, considering that the general occurrence of positive/negative NAO can be predicted, it the hope of the authors that these results can facilitate energetic planning in the Northwest Territories through

Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Jenicek, Michal; Seibert, Jan; Staudinger, Maria

2018-01-01

It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer.

Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged, Irrigated Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, M.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-12-01

The international "predictions in ungauged basins" or "PUB" effort has broadened and improved the tools available to support water resources management in sparsely observed regions. These tools have, however, been primarily focused on regions with limited diversion of surface or shallow groundwater resources. Incorporating anthropogenic activity into PUB methods is essential given the high level of development of many basins. We extended an existing stochastic framework used to predict the flow duration curve to explore the effects of irrigation on streamflow dynamics. Four canonical scenarios were considered in which irrigation water was (i) primarily sourced from water imports, (ii) primarily sourced from direct in-channel diversions, (iii) sourced from shallow groundwater with direct connectivity to stream channels, or (iv) sourced from deep groundwater that is indirectly connected to surface flow via a shallow aquifer. By comparing the predicted flow duration curves to those predicted by accounting for climate and geomorphic factors in isolation, specific "fingerprints" of human water withdrawals could be identified for the different irrigation scenarios, and shown to be sensitive to irrigation volumes and scheduling. The results provide a first insight into PUB methodologies that could be employed in heavily managed basins.

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River Basin streams, Central Idaho, 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Maret, Terry R.; Hortness, Jon E.; Ott, Douglas S.

2004-01-01

equations. PHABSIM results are presented for bull trout, chinook salmon, and steelhead trout over a range of summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations are summarized for juvenile, adult, and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations are evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites also are summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Low flow hydrology: a review

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Smakhtin, VU

2001-01-10

Full Text Available The paper intends to review the current status of low-flow hydrology — a discipline which deals with minimum flow in a river during the dry periods of the year. The discussion starts with the analysis of low-flow generating mechanisms operating...

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

Science.gov (United States)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

Streamflow Gaging Stations

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — This map layer shows selected streamflow gaging stations of the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, in 2013. Gaging stations, or gages, measure...

Instream flow characterization of Upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Maret, Terry R.; Hortness, Jon E.; Ott, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

addition, natural summer streamflows were estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes PHABSIM modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. In addition, streamflow needs for riffle dwelling invertebrate taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) are presented. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects that were identified as potential low-streamflow passage barriers at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Nitrous Oxide and Nitrous Oxide-Free Low-Flow Anesthesia Using Bispectral Index Monitoring: Effects on Hemodynamics, Recovery Times, Volatile Anesthetic Consumption and Costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bengü Gülhan Köksal

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Aim: In this study, we aimed to compare the effects of desfluraneN2O and desflurane-fentanyl combinations on hemodynamics, recovery times, volatile anesthetic consumption and costs in low-flow desflurane anesthesia by bispectral index (BIS monitoring of depth of anesthesia. Methods: After approval of ethics committee and obtaining patient consents, 60 patients were divided into two equal groups randomly. Non-invasive blood pressure measurement, ECG, SpO2 and BIS were monitored. All patients received 10 L .min-1 100% oxygen with mask for 5 minute before intubation. 2 mg.kg-1 propofol, 2 μg.kg-1 fentanyl and 0.6 mg.kg-1 rocuronium bromide were administered at induction in both groups. Desfluran 6% was chosen for anesthesia maintenance. Group 1 received 50% O2-N2O mixture in 6 L.min-1 and Group 2 received 50% O2-air mixture in 6 L.min-1 as carrier gas. Low-flow anesthesia (1 L.min-1 was started after a 10-min period of initial high flow (6 L.min-1. In Group 2, infusion of fentanyl was begun in 1 μg.kg.hour-1 rate. Desflurane level was adjusted at a main BIS value of 40-60. Blood pressure, heart rate, FiO2, etO2, FiN22, EtN2O, FiCO2, EtCO2, Fidesfluran and Etdesflurane were recorded. Results: There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of heart rate, arterial blood pressure, settings of desfluran and recovery time. BIS values (p<0.001 and anesthetic agent costs (p<0.001 were higher in Group 2. Conclusion: Using fentanyl infusion instead of nitrous oxide in low flow-anesthesia with desflurane did not alter the hemodynamic parameters. Fentanyl infusion with medical air-oxygen as carrier gas is an alternative technique, but increases BIS values and anesthetic agent costs. (The Medical Bulletin of Haseki 2010; 48: 132-8

Short-term streamflow forecasting with global climate change implications A comparative study between genetic programming and neural network models

Science.gov (United States)

Makkeasorn, A.; Chang, N. B.; Zhou, X.

2008-05-01

SummarySustainable water resources management is a critically important priority across the globe. While water scarcity limits the uses of water in many ways, floods may also result in property damages and the loss of life. To more efficiently use the limited amount of water under the changing world or to resourcefully provide adequate time for flood warning, the issues have led us to seek advanced techniques for improving streamflow forecasting on a short-term basis. This study emphasizes the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) in addition to the spatio-temporal rainfall distribution via the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), meteorological data via local weather stations, and historical stream data via USGS gage stations to collectively forecast discharges in a semi-arid watershed in south Texas. Two types of artificial intelligence models, including genetic programming (GP) and neural network (NN) models, were employed comparatively. Four numerical evaluators were used to evaluate the validity of a suite of forecasting models. Research findings indicate that GP-derived streamflow forecasting models were generally favored in the assessment in which both SST and meteorological data significantly improve the accuracy of forecasting. Among several scenarios, NEXRAD rainfall data were proven its most effectiveness for a 3-day forecast, and SST Gulf-to-Atlantic index shows larger impacts than the SST Gulf-to-Pacific index on the streamflow forecasts. The most forward looking GP-derived models can even perform a 30-day streamflow forecast ahead of time with an r-square of 0.84 and RMS error 5.4 in our study.

Estimation of selected seasonal streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

Science.gov (United States)

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating seasonal 1-day 10-year, 7-day 10-year, and 30-day 5-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the seasonal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows and the 50-percent flow-duration values. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Regional equations were developed using ordinary least squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamgage stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia-North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle Regions-were determined. Drainage area, average annual precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. The average standard error of estimates for the equations ranged from 12.6 to 299 percent. Procedures developed to estimate the selected seasonal streamflow statistics in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have independent variables within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations: drainage area from 16.3 to 1,516 square miles in the North Region, from 2.78 to 1,619 square miles in the South-Central Region, and from 8.83 to 3,041 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle Region; average annual precipitation from 42.3 to 61.4 inches in the South-Central Region and from 39.8 to 52.9 inches in the Eastern Panhandle Region; and longitude of the basin centroid from 79.618 to 82.023 decimal degrees in the North Region. All estimates of seasonal streamflow statistics are representative of the period from the 1930 to the 2002 climatic year.

Simulating low-flow conditions in an arctic watershed using WaSiM

Science.gov (United States)

Daanen, R. P.; Gaedeke, A.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Arp, C. D.; Whitman, M. S.; Jones, B. M.; Cai, L.; Alexeev, V. A.

2017-12-01

The goal of this study is to identify the magnitude, timing, and duration of low-flow conditions under scenarios of summer drought throughout the 4500-km2 Fish Creek watershed, which is set entirely on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. The hydrologic response of streams in this region to drought conditions is not well understood, but likely varies by stream size, upstream lake extent, and geologic setting. We used a physically based model, Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate river discharge, surface runoff, active layer depth, soil temperatures, water levels, groundwater levels, groundwater flow, and snow distribution. We found that 7-day low flows were strongly affected by scenarios of drought or wet conditions. The 10-year-period scenarios were generated by selecting dry or wet years from a reanalysis dataset. Starting conditions for the simulations were based on a control run with average atmospheric conditions. Connectivity of lakes with better feeding conditions for fish significantly decreased in the scenarios of both summer and winter drought. The overall memory of the hydrologic network seems to be on the order of two to three years, based on the time to reach equilibrium hydrological conditions. This suggests that lake level fluctuation and water harvest could have a long-term effect on the connectivity of lakes. Climate change could strongly affect this system, and increased future water use could add more pressure on fish populations. Snowmelt is a major component of the water balance in a typical Arctic watershed and fish tend to migrate to their summer feeding lakes during the spring. Mid-summer periods without significant rainfall prove most limiting on fish movement, and during this time headwater lakes supply the majority of streamflow and are often the habitat destination for foraging fish. Models that predict connectivity of these lakes to downstream networks during low-flow conditions will help identify where lake water

Characteristics and changes of streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau: A review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lan Cuo

2014-11-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Streamflow follows the monthly patterns of precipitation and temperature in that all peak in May–September. Streamflow changes are affected by climate change and human activities depending on the basins. Streamflow is precipitation dominated in the northern, eastern and southeastern basins. In the central and western basin either melt water or groundwater, or both contributes significantly to streamflow. Human activities have altered streamflow in the lower reaches of the eastern, northern and western basins. Long-term trends in streamflow vary with basins. Outstanding research issues include: (1 What are the linkages between streamflow and climate systems? (2 What are the basin-wide hydrological processes? And (3 What are the cryospheric change impacts on hydrological processes and water balance?

Seasonal Patterns of Gastrointestinal Illness and Streamflow along the Ohio River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena N. Naumova

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Waterborne gastrointestinal (GI illnesses demonstrate seasonal increases associated with water quality and meteorological characteristics. However, few studies have been conducted on the association of hydrological parameters, such as streamflow, and seasonality of GI illnesses. Streamflow is correlated with biological contamination and can be used as proxy for drinking water contamination. We compare seasonal patterns of GI illnesses in the elderly (65 years and older along the Ohio River for a 14-year period (1991–2004 to seasonal patterns of streamflow. Focusing on six counties in close proximity to the river, we compiled weekly time series of hospitalizations for GI illnesses and streamflow data. Seasonal patterns were explored using Poisson annual harmonic regression with and without adjustment for streamflow. GI illnesses demonstrated significant seasonal patterns with peak timing preceding peak timing of streamflow for all six counties. Seasonal patterns of illness remain consistent after adjusting for streamflow. This study found that the time of peak GI illness precedes the peak of streamflow, suggesting either an indirect relationship or a more direct path whereby pathogens enter water supplies prior to the peak in streamflow. Such findings call for interdisciplinary research to better understand associations among streamflow, pathogen loading, and rates of gastrointestinal illnesses.

Streamflow responses in Chile to megathrust earthquakes in the 20th and 21st centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Mohr, Christian; Manga, Michael; Wang, Chi-yuen; Korup, Oliver

2016-04-01

Both coseismic static stress and dynamic stresses associated with seismic waves may cause responses in hydrological systems. Such responses include changes in the water level, hydrochemistry and streamflow discharge. Earthquake effects on hydrological systems provide a means to study the interaction between stress changes and regional hydrology, which is otherwise rarely possible. Chile is a country of frequent and large earthquakes and thus provides abundant opportunities to study such interactions and processes. We analyze streamflow responses in Chile to several megathrust earthquakes, including the 1943 Mw 8.1 Coquimbo, 1950 Mw 8.2 Antofagasta, 1960 Mw 9.5 Valdivia, 1985 Mw 8.0 Valparaiso, 1995 Mw 8.0 Antofagasta, 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, and the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique earthquakes. We use data from 716 stream gauges distributed from the Altiplano in the North to Tierra del Fuego in the South. This network covers the Andes mountain ranges, the central valley, the Coastal Mountain ranges and (mainly in the more southern parts) the Coastal flats. We combine empirical magnitude-distance relationships, machine learning tools, and process-based modeling to characterize responses. We first assess the streamflow anomalies and relate these to topographical, hydro-climatic, geological and earthquake-related (volumetric and dynamic strain) factors using various classifiers. We then apply 1D-groundwater flow modeling to selected catchments in order to test competing hypotheses for the origin of streamflow changes. We show that the co-seismic responses of streamflow mostly involved increasing discharges. We conclude that enhanced vertical permeability can explain most streamflow responses at the regional scale. The total excess water released by a single earthquake, i.e. the Maule earthquake, yielded up to 1 km3. Against the background of megathrust earthquakes frequently hitting Chile, the amount of water released by earthquakes is substantial, particularly for the arid northern

Instream flow characterization of upper Salmon River basin streams, central Idaho, 2004

Science.gov (United States)

Maret, Terry R.; Hortness, Jon E.; Ott, Douglas S.

2005-01-01

estimated for each study site using regional regression equations. This report describes Physical Habitat Simulation System modeling results for bull trout, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout during summer streamflows. Habitat/discharge relations were summarized for adult and spawning life stages at each study site. Adult fish passage and discharge relations were evaluated at specific transects identified as a potential low-streamflow passage barrier at each study site. Continuous summer water temperature data for selected study sites were summarized and compared with Idaho Water Quality Standards and various water temperature requirements of targeted fish species. Continuous summer water temperature data recorded in 2003 and streamflow relations were evaluated for Fourth of July Creek using the Stream Segment Temperature model that simulates mean and maximum daily water temperatures with changes in streamflow. Results of these habitat studies can be used to prioritize and direct cost-effective actions to improve fish habitat for ESA-listed anadromous and native fish species in the basin. These actions may include acquiring water during critical low-flow periods by leasing or modifying irrigation delivery systems to minimize out-of-stream diversions.

Managing Groundwater Recharge and Pumping for Late Summer Streamflow Increases: Quantifying Uncertainty Using Null Space Monte Carlo

Science.gov (United States)

Tolley, D. G., III; Foglia, L.; Harter, T.

2017-12-01

Late summer and early fall streamflow decreases caused by climate change and agricultural pumping contribute to increased water temperatures and result in large disconnected sections during dry years in many semi-arid regions with Mediterranean climate. This negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHMv3) was developed to assess future water management scenarios with the goal of improving aquatic species habitat while maintaining agricultural production in the valley. The Null Space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method available in PEST was used to quantify the range of predicted streamflow changes for three conjunctive use scenarios: 1) managed aquifer recharge (MAR), 2) in lieu recharge (ILR, substituting surface-water irrigation for irrigation with groundwater while flows are available), and 3) MAR + ILR. Random parameter sets were generated using the calibrated covariance matrix of the model, which were then recalibrated if the sum of squared residuals was greater than 10% of the original sum of squared weighted residuals. These calibration-constrained stochastic parameter sets were then used to obtain a distribution of streamflow changes resulting from implementing the conjunctive use scenarios. Preliminary results show that while the range of streamflow increases using managed aquifer recharge is much narrower (i.e., greater degree of certainty) than in lieu recharge, there are potentially much greater benefits to streamflow by implementing in lieu recharge (although also greater costs). Combining the two scenarios provides the greatest benefit for increasing late summer and early fall streamflow, as most of the MAR streamflow increases are during the spring and early summer which ILR is able to take advantage of. Incorporation of uncertainty into model predictions is critical for establishing and maintaining stakeholder trust

Drivers influencing streamflow changes in the Upper Turia basin, Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Salmoral, Gloria; Willaarts, Bárbara A; Troch, Peter A; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-15

Many rivers across the world have experienced a significant streamflow reduction over the last decades. Drivers of the observed streamflow changes are multiple, including climate change (CC), land use and land cover changes (LULCC), water transfers and river impoundment. Many of these drivers inter-act simultaneously, making it difficult to discern the impact of each driver individually. In this study we isolate the effects of LULCC on the observed streamflow reduction in the Upper Turia basin (east Spain) during the period 1973-2008. Regression models of annual streamflow are fitted with climatic variables and also additional time variant drivers like LULCC. The ecohydrological model SWAT is used to study the magnitude and sign of streamflow change when LULCC occurs. Our results show that LULCC does play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting increasing evapotranspiration and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and CC have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

2004-01-01

This paper examines an archive containing over 40 years of 8-day atmospheric forecasts over the contiguous United States from the NCEP reanalysis project to assess the possibilities for using medium-range numerical weather prediction model output for predictions of streamflow. This analysis shows the biases in the NCEP forecasts to be quite extreme. In many regions, systematic precipitation biases exceed 100% of the mean, with temperature biases exceeding 3??C. In some locations, biases are even higher. The accuracy of NCEP precipitation and 2-m maximum temperature forecasts is computed by interpolating the NCEP model output for each forecast day to the location of each station in the NWS cooperative network and computing the correlation with station observations. Results show that the accuracy of the NCEP forecasts is rather low in many areas of the country. Most apparent is the generally low skill in precipitation forecasts (particularly in July) and low skill in temperature forecasts in the western United States, the eastern seaboard, and the southern tier of states. These results outline a clear need for additional processing of the NCEP Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) output before it is used for hydrologic predictions. Techniques of model output statistics (MOS) are used in this paper to downscale the NCEP forecasts to station locations. Forecasted atmospheric variables (e.g., total column precipitable water, 2-m air temperature) are used as predictors in a forward screening multiple linear regression model to improve forecasts of precipitation and temperature for stations in the National Weather Service cooperative network. This procedure effectively removes all systematic biases in the raw NCEP precipitation and temperature forecasts. MOS guidance also results in substantial improvements in the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts throughout the country. For precipitation, forecast improvements were less impressive. MOS guidance increases

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 1: The production of a daily streamflow archive and metadata

Science.gov (United States)

Do, Hong Xuan; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-04-01

This is the first part of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (GSIM), a worldwide collection of metadata and indices derived from more than 35 000 daily streamflow time series. This paper focuses on the compilation of the daily streamflow time series based on 12 free-to-access streamflow databases (seven national databases and five international collections). It also describes the development of three metadata products (freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477" target="_blank">https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477): (1) a GSIM catalogue collating basic metadata associated with each time series, (2) catchment boundaries for the contributing area of each gauge, and (3) catchment metadata extracted from 12 gridded global data products representing essential properties such as land cover type, soil type, and climate and topographic characteristics. The quality of the delineated catchment boundary is also made available and should be consulted in GSIM application. The second paper in the series then explores production and analysis of streamflow indices. Having collated an unprecedented number of stations and associated metadata, GSIM can be used to advance large-scale hydrological research and improve understanding of the global water cycle.

Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

2015-05-01

Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM – Part 1: The production of a daily streamflow archive and metadata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. X. Do

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This is the first part of a two-paper series presenting the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive (GSIM, a worldwide collection of metadata and indices derived from more than 35 000 daily streamflow time series. This paper focuses on the compilation of the daily streamflow time series based on 12 free-to-access streamflow databases (seven national databases and five international collections. It also describes the development of three metadata products (freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887477: (1 a GSIM catalogue collating basic metadata associated with each time series, (2 catchment boundaries for the contributing area of each gauge, and (3 catchment metadata extracted from 12 gridded global data products representing essential properties such as land cover type, soil type, and climate and topographic characteristics. The quality of the delineated catchment boundary is also made available and should be consulted in GSIM application. The second paper in the series then explores production and analysis of streamflow indices. Having collated an unprecedented number of stations and associated metadata, GSIM can be used to advance large-scale hydrological research and improve understanding of the global water cycle.

Improving streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture observations

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, Amol; Ramsankaran, RAAJ

2017-12-01

This article presents a study carried out using EnKF based assimilation of coarser-scale SMOS soil moisture retrievals to improve the streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model in a large catchment. This study has been carried out in Munneru river catchment, India, which is about 10,156 km2. In this study, an EnkF based new approach is proposed for improving the inherent vertical coupling of soil layers of SWAT hydrological model during soil moisture data assimilation. Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach. However, the improvements in the simulated streamflow are moderate, which is due to the limitations in SWAT model in reflecting the profile soil moisture updates in surface runoff computations. Further, it is observed that the durability of streamflow improvements is longer when the assimilation system effectively updates the subsurface flow component. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the passive microwave-based coarser-scale soil moisture products like SMOS hold significant potential to improve the streamflow estimates when assimilating into large-scale distributed hydrological models operating at a daily time step.

Can additional urban development have major impacts on streamflow of a peri-urban catchment? A case study from Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Carla; Walsh, Rory; Nunes, João; Steenhuis, Tammo; de Lima, João; Coelho, Celeste; Ferreira, António

2016-04-01

- and post- additional urban development periods. Response time to rainfall reduced from 60-75 minutes to 40 minutes and recession time fell from 21.3-29.5 h to 7.4-8.7 h, respectively. The relatively low runoff and storm runoff coefficients given the extent of urban land-use is due to the dispersed urban pattern and movement of at least part of the overland flow from impervious surfaces into pervious soils (within urban areas and/or downslope woodland and abandoned fields). High soil permeability, linked to the sandstone and limestone bedrock, favours the establishment of water sinks. The additional extension of observed urban development during the study period, however, also included partial routing of overland flow from additional impervious surfaces into the stream network, enhancing flow connectivity, thus, increasing storm runoff and providing quicker hydrologic response. Urban planning should consider the landscape mosaic of peri-urban areas in order to maximize water infiltration and minimize the impacts on streamflow regime and urban flooding.

Influence of urbanization pattern on stream flow of a peri-urban catchment under Mediterranean climate

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Carla S. S.; Walsh, Rory P. D.; Ferreira, António J. D.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; Coelho, Celeste A. O.

2015-04-01

The demand for better life quality and lower living costs created a great pressure on peri-urban areas, leading to significant land-use changes. The complexity of mixed land-use patterns, however, presents a challenge to understand the hydrological pathways and streamflow response involved in such changes. This study assesses the impact of a actively changing Portuguese peri-urban area on catchment hydrology. It focuses on quantifying streamflow delivery from contributing areas, of different land-use arrangement and the seasonal influence of the Mediterranean climate on stream discharge. The study focuses on Ribeira dos Covões a small (6 km2) peri-urban catchment on the outskirts of Coimbra, one of the main cities in central Portugal. Between 1958 and 2012 the urban area of the catchment expanded from 8% to 40%, mostly at the expense of agriculture (down from 48% to 4%), with woodland now accounting for the remaining 56% of the catchment area. The urban area comprises contrasting urban settings, associated with older discontinuous arrangement of buildings and urban structures and low population density (urban cores dominated by apartment blocks and high population density (9900 inhabitants/km). The hydrological response of the catchment has been monitored since 2007 by a flume installed at the outlet. In 2009, five rainfall gauges and eight additional water level recorders were installed upstream, to assess the hydrological response of different sub-catchments, characterized by distinct urban patterns and either limestone or sandstone lithologies. Annual runoff coefficients range between 14% and 22%. Changes in annual baseflow index (36-39% of annual rainfall) have been small with urbanization (from 34% to 40%) during the monitoring period itself. Annual runoff coefficients were lowest (14-7%) on catchments >80% woodland and highest (29% on sandstone; 18% on limestone) in the most urbanized (49-53% urban) sub-catchments. Percentage impermeable surface seems to

Application of the geological streamflow and Muskingum Cunge ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... of the geological streamflow and Muskingum Cunge models in the Yala River Basin, Kenya. ... can be represented by the application of hydrologic and hydraulic models. ... verification and streamflow routing based on a split record analysis.

Analysis of streamflow variability in Alpine catchments at multiple spatial and temporal scales

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez Ciria, T.; Chiogna, G.

2017-12-01

Alpine watersheds play a pivotal role in Europe for water provisioning and for hydropower production. In these catchments, temporal fluctuations of river discharge occur at multiple temporal scales due to natural as well as anthropogenic driving forces. In the last decades, modifications of the flow regime have been observed and their origin lies in the complex interplay between construction of dams for hydro power production, changes in water management policies and climatic changes. The alteration of the natural flow has negative impacts on the freshwater biodiversity and threatens the ecosystem integrity of the Alpine region. Therefore, understanding the temporal and spatial variability of river discharge has recently become a particular concern for environmental protection and represents a crucial contribution to achieve sustainable water resources management in the Alps. In this work, time series analysis is conducted for selected gauging stations in the Inn and the Adige catchments, which cover a large part of the central and eastern region of the Alps. We analyze the available time series using the continuous wavelet transform and change-point analyses for determining how and where changes have taken place. Although both catchments belong to different climatic zones of the Greater Alpine Region, streamflow properties share some similar characteristics. The comparison of the collected streamflow time series in the two catchments permits detecting gradients in the hydrological system dynamics that depend on station elevation, longitudinal location in the Alps and catchment area. This work evidences that human activities (e.g., water management practices and flood protection measures, changes in legislation and market regulation) have major impacts on streamflow and should be rigorously considered in hydrological models.

Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zou

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Long records (1960–2013 of monthly streamflow observations from 8 hydrological stations in the East Asian monsoon region are modeled using a nonstationarity framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS. Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarity of monthly streamflow series in different geographic regions and to select optimal distribution among five two-parameter distributions (Gamma, Lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistic. Based on the optimal nonstationarity distribution, a time-dependent Standardized Streamflow Index (denoted SSIvar that takes account of the possible nonstationarity in streamflow series is constructed and then employed to identify drought characteristics at different time scales (at a 3-month scale and a 12-month scale in the eight selected catchments during 1960–2013 for comparison. Results of GAMLSS models indicate that they are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the monthly streamflow series with distribution parameters that are a linear function of time. For 8 hydrological stations in different geographic regions, a noticeable difference is observed between the historical drought assessment of Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI and SSIvar, indicating that the nonstationarity could not be ignored in the hydrological drought analyses, especially for stations with change point and significant change trends. The constructed SSIvar is, to some extent, found to be more reliable and suitable for regional drought monitoring than traditional SSI in a changing environment, thereby providing a feasible alternative for drought forecasting and water resource management at different time scales.

Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

Science.gov (United States)

Jaeger, K. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the

Streamflow impacts of biofuel policy-driven landscape change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sami Khanal

Full Text Available Likely changes in precipitation (P and potential evapotranspiration (PET resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979-2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity.

Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

Science.gov (United States)

Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

2015-12-01

Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

Influence of septic systems on stream base flow in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin near Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, John S.; Painter, Jaime A.

2014-01-01

Septic systems were identified at 241,733 locations in a 2,539-square-mile (mi2) study area that includes all or parts of 12 counties in the Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, area. Septic system percolation may locally be an important component of streamflow in small drainage basins where it augments natural groundwater recharge, especially during extreme low-flow conditions. The amount of groundwater reaching streams depends on how much is intercepted by plants or infiltrates to deeper parts of the groundwater system that flows beyond a basin divide and does not discharge into streams within a basin. The potential maximum percolation from septic systems in the study area is 62 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), of which 52 ft3/s is in the Chattahoochee River Basin and 10 ft3/s is in the Flint River Basin. These maximum percolation rates represent 0.4 to 5.7 percent of daily mean streamflow during the 2011–12 period at the farthest downstream gaging site (station 02338000) on the Chattahoochee River, and 0.5 to 179 percent of daily mean streamflow at the farthest downstream gaging site on the Flint River (02344350). To determine the difference in base flow between basins having different septic system densities, hydrograph separation analysis was completed using daily mean streamflow data at streamgaging stations at Level Creek (site 02334578), with a drainage basin having relatively high septic system density of 101 systems per square mile, and Woodall Creek (site 02336313), with a drainage basin having relatively low septic system density of 18 systems per square mile. Results indicated that base-flow yield during 2011–12 was higher at the Level Creek site, with a median of 0.47 cubic feet per second per square mile ([ft3/s]/mi2), compared to a median of 0.16 (ft3/s)/mi2, at the Woodall Creek site. At the less urbanized Level Creek site, there are 515 septic systems with a daily maximum percolation rate of 0.14 ft3/s, accounting for 11 percent of the base flow in

Treating pre-instrumental data as "missing" data: using a tree-ring-based paleoclimate record and imputations to reconstruct streamflow in the Missouri River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, M. W.; Lall, U.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

Advances in paleoclimatology in the past few decades have provided opportunities to expand the temporal perspective of the hydrological and climatological variability across the world. The North American region is particularly fortunate in this respect where a relatively dense network of high resolution paleoclimate proxy records have been assembled. One such network is the annually-resolved Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA): a paleoclimate reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) that covers North America on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid based on tree-ring chronologies. However, the use of the LBDA to assess North American streamflow variability requires a model by which streamflow may be reconstructed. Paleoclimate reconstructions have typically used models that first seek to quantify the relationship between the paleoclimate variable and the environmental variable of interest before extrapolating the relationship back in time. In contrast, the pre-instrumental streamflow is here considered as "missing" data. A method of imputing the "missing" streamflow data, prior to the instrumental record, is applied through multiple imputation using chained equations for streamflow in the Missouri River Basin. In this method, the distribution of the instrumental streamflow and LBDA is used to estimate sets of plausible values for the "missing" streamflow data resulting in a ~600 year-long streamflow reconstruction. Past research into external climate forcings, oceanic-atmospheric variability and its teleconnections, and assessments of rare multi-centennial instrumental records demonstrate that large temporal oscillations in hydrological conditions are unlikely to be captured in most instrumental records. The reconstruction of multi-centennial records of streamflow will enable comprehensive assessments of current and future water resource infrastructure and operations under the existing scope of natural climate variability.

Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

Flow visualization of a low density hypersonic flow field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson, B.S.; Jumper, E.J.; Walters, E.; Segalman, T.Y.; Founds, N.D.

1989-01-01

Characteristics of laser induced iodine fluorescence (LIIF) in low density hypersonic flows are being investigated for use as a diagnostic technique. At low pressures, doppler broadening dominates the iodine absorption profile producing a fluorescence signal that is primarily temperature and velocity dependent. From this dependency, a low pressure flow field has the potential to be mapped for its velocity and temperature fields. The theory for relating iodine emission to the velocity and temperature fields of a hypersonic flow is discussed in this paper. Experimental observations are made of a fluorescencing free expansion and qualitatively related to the theory. 7 refs

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

OpenAIRE

F. F. van Ogtrop; R. W. Vervoort; G. Z. Heller; D. M. Stasinopoulos; R. A. Rigby

2011-01-01

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine th...

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

OpenAIRE

F. F. van Ogtrop; R. W. Vervoort; G. Z. Heller; D. M. Stasinopoulos; R. A. Rigby

2011-01-01

Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a probabilistic statistical model to forecast streamflow 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probabil...

Monthly streamflow forecasting based on hidden Markov model and Gaussian Mixture Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yongqi; Ye, Lei; Qin, Hui; Hong, Xiaofeng; Ye, Jiajun; Yin, Xingli

2018-06-01

Reliable streamflow forecasts can be highly valuable for water resources planning and management. In this study, we combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) and Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) for probabilistic monthly streamflow forecasting. The HMM is initialized using a kernelized K-medoids clustering method, and the Baum-Welch algorithm is then executed to learn the model parameters. GMR derives a conditional probability distribution for the predictand given covariate information, including the antecedent flow at a local station and two surrounding stations. The performance of HMM-GMR was verified based on the mean square error and continuous ranked probability score skill scores. The reliability of the forecasts was assessed by examining the uniformity of the probability integral transform values. The results show that HMM-GMR obtained reasonably high skill scores and the uncertainty spread was appropriate. Different HMM states were assumed to be different climate conditions, which would lead to different types of observed values. We demonstrated that the HMM-GMR approach can handle multimodal and heteroscedastic data.

Options for refractive index and viscosity matching to study variable density flows

Science.gov (United States)

Clément, Simon A.; Guillemain, Anaïs; McCleney, Amy B.; Bardet, Philippe M.

2018-02-01

Variable density flows are often studied by mixing two miscible aqueous solutions of different densities. To perform optical diagnostics in such environments, the refractive index of the fluids must be matched, which can be achieved by carefully choosing the two solutes and the concentration of the solutions. To separate the effects of buoyancy forces and viscosity variations, it is desirable to match the viscosity of the two solutions in addition to their refractive index. In this manuscript, several pairs of index matched fluids are compared in terms of viscosity matching, monetary cost, and practical use. Two fluid pairs are studied in detail, with two aqueous solutions (binary solutions of water and a salt or alcohol) mixed into a ternary solution. In each case: an aqueous solution of isopropanol mixed with an aqueous solution of sodium chloride (NaCl) and an aqueous solution of glycerol mixed with an aqueous solution of sodium sulfate (Na_2SO_4). The first fluid pair allows reaching high-density differences at low cost, but brings a large difference in dynamic viscosity. The second allows matching dynamic viscosity and refractive index simultaneously, at reasonable cost. For each of these four solutes, the density, kinematic viscosity, and refractive index are measured versus concentration and temperature, as well as wavelength for the refractive index. To investigate non-linear effects when two index-matched, binary solutions are mixed, the ternary solutions formed are also analyzed. Results show that density and refractive index follow a linear variation with concentration. However, the viscosity of the isopropanol and NaCl pair deviates from the linear law and has to be considered. Empirical correlations and their coefficients are given to create index-matched fluids at a chosen temperature and wavelength. Finally, the effectiveness of the refractive index matching is illustrated with particle image velocimetry measurements performed for a buoyant jet in a

Fabrication of rigid and flexible refractive-index-matched flow phantoms for flow visualisation and optical flow measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Geoghegan, P. H.; Buchmann, N. A.; Spence, C. J. T.; Moore, S.; Jermy, M.

2012-05-01

A method for the construction of both rigid and compliant (flexible) transparent flow phantoms of biological flow structures, suitable for PIV and other optical flow methods with refractive-index-matched working fluid is described in detail. Methods for matching the in vivo compliance and elastic wave propagation wavelength are presented. The manipulation of MRI and CT scan data through an investment casting mould is described. A method for the casting of bubble-free phantoms in silicone elastomer is given. The method is applied to fabricate flexible phantoms of the carotid artery (with and without stenosis), the carotid artery bifurcation (idealised and patient-specific) and the human upper airway (nasal cavity). The fidelity of the phantoms to the original scan data is measured, and it is shown that the cross-sectional error is less than 5% for phantoms of simple shape but up to 16% for complex cross-sectional shapes such as the nasal cavity. This error is mainly due to the application of a PVA coating to the inner mould and can be reduced by shrinking the digital model. Sixteen per cent variation in area is less than the natural patient to patient variation of the physiological geometries. The compliance of the phantom walls is controlled within physiologically realistic ranges, by choice of the wall thickness, transmural pressure and Young's modulus of the elastomer. Data for the dependence of Young's modulus on curing temperature are given for Sylgard 184. Data for the temperature dependence of density, viscosity and refractive index of the refractive-index-matched working liquid (i.e. water-glycerol mixtures) are also presented.

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

Science.gov (United States)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions

Postoperative Reverse Remodeling and Symptomatic Improvement in Normal-Flow Low-Gradient Aortic Stenosis After Aortic Valve Replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Carter-Storch, Rasmus; Møller, Jacob E; Christensen, Nicolaj L; Irmukhadenov, Akhmadjon; Rasmussen, Lars M; Pecini, Redi; Øvrehus, Kristian A; Søndergård, Eva V; Marcussen, Niels; Dahl, Jordi S

2017-12-01

Severe aortic stenosis (AS) most often presents with reduced aortic valve area (gradient (≥40 mm Hg; normal-flow high-gradient AS) or low mean gradient (normal-flow low-gradient [NFLG] AS). The benefit of aortic valve replacement (AVR) among NFLG patients is controversial. We compared the impact of NFLG condition on preoperative left ventricular (LV) remodeling and myocardial fibrosis and postoperative remodeling and symptomatic benefit. Eighty-seven consecutive patients with reduced aortic valve area and normal stroke volume index undergoing AVR underwent echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging, a 6-minute walk test, and measurement of natriuretic peptides before and 1 year after AVR. Myocardial fibrosis was assessed from magnetic resonance imaging. Patients were stratified as NFLG or normal-flow high-gradient. In total, 33 patients (38%) had NFLG. Before AVR, they were characterized by similar symptom burden but less severe AS measured by aortic valve area index (0.50±0.09 versus 0.40±0.08 cm 2 /m 2 ; P gradient condition independently predicted change in LV mass index. Patients with NFLG had less severe AS and LV remodeling than patients with normal-flow high-gradient. Furthermore, NFLG patients experienced less reverse remodeling but the same symptomatic benefit. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02316587. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) Streamflow Data Set, 1874-1988

Science.gov (United States)

Slack, James Richard; Lumb, Alan M.; Landwehr, Jurate Maciunas

1993-01-01

records of 'natural flow' were permitted, nor was any record extended or had missing values 'filled in' using computational algorithms. If the streamflow at a station was judged to be free of controls for only a part of the entire period of record that is available for the station, then only that part was included in the HCDN, but only if it was of sufficient length (generally 20 years) to warrant inclusion. In addition to the daily mean discharge values, complete station identification information and basin characteristics were retrieved from WATSTORE for inclusion in the HCDN. Statistical characteristics, including the monthly mean discharge, as well as the annual mean, minimum and maximum discharge values, were derived for the records in the HCDN data set. For a full description of the development and content of the Hydro-Climatic Data Network, please take a look at the HCDN Report.

Detection of changes in flow variability of the upper Danube between 1876-2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pekarova, Pavla; Miklanek, Pavol; Halmova, Dana; Skoda, Peter; Pekar, Jan

2008-01-01

It is widely acknowledged that global warming will result in an increased extremality of hydrological phenomena. As for streamflow it is anticipated that duration of low-flow conditions and flood frequency will both increase. Approving this hypothesis by statistically evaluating daily runoff characteristics depends on the availability of long and homogeneous data series. The aim of this paper is to analyze the change of the average daily flows of the Danube at Bratislava for different subsets of the period 1876-2006. The statistical tests did not reveal any increase in the extremality of daily runoff over the period 1876-2006. On the contrary, variability of daily flows of the Danube River decreases. Over the last 30 years streamflows increased in the winter-spring season and decreased in the summertime, compared to the past periods. This can be explained by the higher air temperature in the headwaters. A warmer climate causes an earlier onset of snowmelt in the winter-spring season, thus less runoff is observed in the summer with higher rates of precipitation.

Changes in streamflow and summary of major-ion chemistry and loads in the North Fork Red River basin upstream from Lake Altus, northwestern Texas and western Oklahoma, 1945-1999

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, S. Jerrod; Wahl, Kenneth L.

2003-01-01

Upstream from Lake Altus, the North Fork Red River drains an area of 2,515 square miles. The quantity and quality of surface water are major concerns at Lake Altus, and water-resource managers and consumers need historical information to make informed decisions about future development. The Lugert-Altus Irrigation District relies on withdrawals from the lake to sustain nearly 46,000 acres of agricultural land. Kendall's tau tests of precipitation data indicated no statistically significant trend over the entire 100 years of available record. However, a significant increase in precipitation occurred in the last 51 years. Four streamflow-gaging stations with more than 10 years of record were maintained in the basin. These stations recorded no significant trends in annual streamflow volume. Two stations, however, had significant increasing trends in the base-flow index, and three had significant decreasing trends in annual peak flows. Major-ion chemistry in the North Fork Red River is closely related to the chemical composition of the underlying bedrock. Two main lithologies are represented in the basin upstream from Lake Altus. In the upper reaches, young and poorly consolidated sediments include a range of sizes from coarse gravel to silt and clay. Nearsurface horizons commonly are cemented as calcium carbonate caliche. Finer-grained gypsiferous sandstones and shales dominate the lower reaches of the basin. A distinct increase in dissolved solids, specifically sodium, chloride, calcium, and sulfate, occurs as the river flows over rocks that contain substantial quantities of gypsum, anhydrite, and dolomite. These natural salts are the major dissolved constituents in the North Fork Red River.

Evidence for deep sub-surface flow routing in forested upland Wales: implications for contaminant transport and stream flow generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Haria

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Upland streamflow generation has traditionally been modelled as a simple rainfall-runoff mechanism. However, recent hydrochemical studies conducted in upland Wales have highlighted the potentially important role of bedrock groundwater in streamflow generation processes. To investigate these processes, a detailed and novel field study was established in the riparian zone and lower hillslopes of the Hafren catchment at Plynlimon, mid-Wales. Results from this study showed groundwater near the river behaving in a complex and most likely confined manner within depth-specific horizons. Rapid responses to rainfall in all boreholes at the study site indicated rapid recharge pathways further upslope. The different flow pathways and travel times influenced the chemical character of groundwaters with depth. Groundwaters were shown to discharge into the stream from the fractured bedrock. A lateral rapid flow horizon was also identified as a fast flow pathway immediately below the soils. This highlighted a mechanism whereby rising groundwater may pick up chemical constituents from the lower soils and transfer them quickly to the stream channel. Restrictions in this horizon resulted in groundwater upwelling into the soils at some locations indicating soil water to be sourced from both rising groundwater and rainfall. The role of bedrock groundwater in upland streamflow generation is far more complicated than previously considered, particularly with respect to residence times and flow pathways. Hence, water quality models in upland catchments that do not take account of the bedrock geology and the groundwater interactions therein will be seriously flawed. Keywords: bedrock, groundwater, Hafren, hillslope hydrology, Plynlimon, recharge, soil water, streamflow generation

A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Fei

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

Assessing River Low-Flow Uncertainties Related to Hydrological Model Calibration and Structure under Climate Change Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mélanie Trudel

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Low-flow is the flow of water in a river during prolonged dry weather. This paper investigated the uncertainty originating from hydrological model calibration and structure in low-flow simulations under climate change conditions. Two hydrological models of contrasting complexity, GR4J and SWAT, were applied to four sub-watersheds of the Yamaska River, Canada. The two models were calibrated using seven different objective functions including the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSEQ and six other objective functions more related to low flows. The uncertainty in the model parameters was evaluated using a PARAmeter SOLutions procedure (PARASOL. Twelve climate projections from different combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs were used to simulate low-flow indices in a reference (1970–2000 and future (2040–2070 horizon. Results indicate that the NSEQ objective function does not properly represent low-flow indices for either model. The NSE objective function applied to the log of the flows shows the lowest total variance for all sub-watersheds. In addition, these hydrological models should be used with care for low-flow studies, since they both show some inconsistent results. The uncertainty is higher for SWAT than for GR4J. With GR4J, the uncertainties in the simulations for the 7Q2 index (the 7-day low-flow value with a 2-year return period are lower for the future period than for the reference period. This can be explained by the analysis of hydrological processes. In the future horizon, a significant worsening of low-flow conditions was projected.

Why has streamflow in a northern Idaho creek increased while flows from many other watersheds in the US Pacific Northwest have decreased over the past sixty years?

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Wei, L.; Hudak, A. T.; Link, T. E.; Marshall, J. D.; Kavanagh, K.; Zhou, H.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Pangle, R. E.; Flerchinger, G. N.; Denner, R. J.

2014-12-01

As global warming proceeds, evapotranspiration demand will increase, the precipitation regime may change, and water cycling in many ecosystems may be affected. Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the USA decreased in the last ~60 year possibly due to decreasing precipitation at high elevations and/or increasing evapotranspiration. However, an increasing trend of streamflow was observed at a 4km2 watershed in the Priest River Experimental Forest (PREF) in northern Idaho. We used the process-based soil-vegetation-atmosphere Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, to simulate the changes in the water cycle at PREF. Independent measurements were used to parameterize the model, including forest transpiration, stomatal responses to vapor pressure, forest properties (height, leaf area index, and biomass), soil properties, soil moisture, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. The model reasonably simulated the streamflow dynamics during the evaluation period from 2003 to 2010, which verified the ability of SHAW to simulate the water cycle at PREF. We then ran the model using historical vegetation cover and climate data to reveal the drivers of the changes in water budget of PREF over the past 60 years. Historical vegetation cover was obtained from a 1939 digitized historical vegetation map. The biggest change was the decline of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl. ex D. Don), a fast growing and deep rooted species with high transpiration rates, which was once a predominant species in PREF in the early 20th century. This was followed by a subsequent increase and decrease in fir species, followed by the emergence of western red cedar (Thuja plicata) as the current dominant tree species. The tree species shifts under this successional trajectory would have produced continually decreasing transpiration rates, which may explain the steady increase in observed runoff over the last ~60 years, which was likewise simulated with the SHAW model.

Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China.

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Xue, Lianqing; Yang, Fan; Yang, Changbing; Chen, Xinfang; Zhang, Luochen; Chi, Yixia; Yang, Guang

2017-08-15

Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.

WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

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Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

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Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

Low glycaemic index, or low glycaemic load, diets for diabetes mellitus.

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Thomas, Diana; Elliott, Elizabeth J

2009-01-21

The aim of diabetes management is to normalise blood glucose levels, since improved blood glucose control is associated with reduction in development, and progression, of complications. Nutritional factors affect blood glucose levels, however there is currently no universal approach to the optimal dietary treatment for diabetes. There is controversy about how useful the glycaemic index (GI) is in diabetic meal planning. Improved glycaemic control through diet could minimise medications, lessen risk of diabetic complications, improve quality of life and increase life expectancy. To assess the effects of low glycaemic index, or low glycaemic load, diets on glycaemic control in people with diabetes. We performed electronic searches of The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL with no language restriction. We assessed randomised controlled trials of four weeks or longer that compared a low glycaemic index, or low glycaemic load, diet with a higher glycaemic index, or load, or other diet for people with either type 1 or 2 diabetes mellitus, whose diabetes was not already optimally controlled. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study population, intervention and outcomes for each included study, using standardised data extraction forms. Eleven relevant randomised controlled trials involving 402 participants were identified. There was a significant decrease in the glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) parallel group of trials, the weighted mean difference (WMD) was -0.5% with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of - 0.9 to -0.1, P = 0.02; and in the cross-over group of trials the WMD was -0.5% with a 95% CI of -1.0 to -0.1, P = 0.03. Episodes of hypoglycaemia were significantly fewer with low compared to high GI diet in one trial (difference of -0.8 episodes per patient per month, P low-GI diet compared to measured carbohydrate exchange diet in another study (35% versus 66%, P = 0.006). No study reported on mortality, morbidity or costs. A low-GI diet can improve

Model-Based Attribution of High-Resolution Streamflow Trends in Two Alpine Basins of Western Austria

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Christoph Kormann

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower

Patient state index and cerebral blood flow changes during shoulder arthroscopy in beach chair position.

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Buget, Mehmet Ilke; Atalar, Ata Can; Edipoglu, Ipek Saadet; Sungur, Zerrin; Sivrikoz, Nukhet; Karadeniz, Meltem; Saka, Esra; Kucukay, Suleyman; Senturk, Mert N

2016-01-01

The aim of the study were to demonstrate the possible hemodynamic changes and cerebral blood flow alterations in patients who were positioned from supine to beach chair position; and to detect if the position change causes any cortical activity alteration as measured by the 4-channeled electroencephalography monitor. 35 patients were included. Before the induction, mean arterial pressure and patient state index values were recorded (T0). After the intubation, doppler-ultrasonography of the patients' internal carotid and vertebral arteries were evaluated to acquire cerebral blood flow values from the formula. In supine position, mean arterial pressure, patient state index and cerebral blood flow values were recorded (T1) and the patient was positioned to beach chair position. After 5min all measurements were repeated (T2). Measurements of patient state index and mean arterial pressure were repeated after 20 (T3), and 40 (T4)min. There was a significant decrease between T0 and T1 in heart rate (80.5±11.6 vs. 75.9±14.4beats/min), MAP (105.8±21.9 vs. 78.9±18.4mmHg) and PSI (88.5±8.3 vs. 30.3±9.7) (all pstate index values (T1-T4) showed no significant change; however, comparing only T1 and T2 resulted in a statically significant decrease in patient state index. There was a significant decrease in cerebral blood flow after beach chair position. Beach chair position was associated with a decrease in cerebral blood flow and patient state index values. Patient state index was affected by the gravitational change of the cerebral blood flow; however, both factors were not directly correlated to each other. Moreover, the decrease in patient state index value was transient and returned to normal values within 20min. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

[Patient state index and cerebral blood flow changes during shoulder arthroscopy in beach chair position].

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Buget, Mehmet Ilke; Atalar, Ata Can; Edipoglu, Ipek Saadet; Sungur, Zerrin; Sivrikoz, Nukhet; Karadeniz, Meltem; Saka, Esra; Kucukay, Suleyman; Senturk, Mert N

2016-01-01

The aim of the study were to demonstrate the possible hemodynamic changes and cerebral blood flow alterations in patients who were positioned from supine to beach chair position; and to detect if the position change causes any cortical activity alteration as measured by the 4-channeled electroencephalography monitor. 35 patients were included. Before the induction, mean arterial pressure and patient state index values were recorded (T0). After the intubation, doppler-ultrasonography of the patients' internal carotid and vertebral arteries were evaluated to acquire cerebral blood flow values from the formula. In supine position, mean arterial pressure, patient state index and cerebral blood flow values were recorded (T1) and the patient was positioned to beach chair position. After 5min all measurements were repeated (T2). Measurements of patient state index and mean arterial pressure were repeated after 20 (T3), and 40 (T4)min. There was a significant decrease between T0 and T1 in heart rate (80.5±11.6 vs. 75.9±14.4beats/min), MAP (105.8±21.9 vs. 78.9±18.4mmHg) and PSI (88.5±8.3 vs. 30.3±9.7) (all pstate index values (T1-T4) showed no significant change; however, comparing only T1 and T2 resulted in a statically significant decrease in patient state index. There was a significant decrease in cerebral blood flow after beach chair position. Beach chair position was associated with a decrease in cerebral blood flow and patient state index values. Patient state index was affected by the gravitational change of the cerebral blood flow; however, both factors were not directly correlated to each other. Moreover, the decrease in patient state index value was transient and returned to normal values within 20min. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Substantial proportion of global streamflow less than three months old

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Jasechko, Scott; Kirchner, James W.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

2016-02-01

Biogeochemical cycles, contaminant transport and chemical weathering are regulated by the speed at which precipitation travels through landscapes and reaches streams. Streamflow is a mixture of young and old precipitation, but the global proportions of these young and old components are not known. Here we analyse seasonal cycles of oxygen isotope ratios in rain, snow and streamflow compiled from 254 watersheds around the world, and calculate the fraction of streamflow that is derived from precipitation that fell within the past two or three months. This young streamflow accounts for about a third of global river discharge, and comprises at least 5% of discharge in about 90% of the catchments we investigated. We conclude that, although typical catchments have mean transit times of years or even decades, they nonetheless can rapidly transmit substantial fractions of soluble contaminant inputs to streams. Young streamflow is less prevalent in steeper landscapes, which suggests they are characterized by deeper vertical infiltration. Because young streamflow is derived from less than 0.1% of global groundwater storage, we conclude that this thin veneer of aquifer storage will have a disproportionate influence on stream water quality.

Metabolic effects of low glycaemic index diets

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Rusu Emilia

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract The persistence of an epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes suggests that new nutritional strategies are needed if the epidemic is to be overcome. A promising nutritional approach suggested by this thematic review is metabolic effect of low glycaemic-index diet. The currently available scientific literature shows that low glycaemic-index diets acutely induce a number of favorable effects, such as a rapid weight loss, decrease of fasting glucose and insulin levels, reduction of circulating triglyceride levels and improvement of blood pressure. The long-term effect of the combination of these changes is at present not known. Based on associations between these metabolic parameters and risk of cardiovascular disease, further controlled studies on low-GI diet and metabolic disease are needed.

Benefits of prescribed flows for salmon smolt survival enhancement vary longitudinally in a highly managed river system

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Courter, Ian; Garrison, Thomas; Kock, Tobias J.; Perry, Russell W.; Child, David; Hubble, Joel

2016-01-01

The influence of streamflow on survival of emigrating juvenile Pacific salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. (smolts) is a major concern for water managers throughout the northeast Pacific Rim. However, few studies have quantified flow effects on smolt survival, and available information does not indicate a consistent flow–survival relationship within the typical range of flows under management control. In the Yakima Basin, Washington, the potential effects of streamflow alterations on smolt survival have been debated for over 20 years. Using a series of controlled flow releases from upper basin reservoirs and radiotelemetry, we quantified the relationship between flow and yearling Chinook salmon smolt survival in the 208 km reach between Roza Dam and the Yakima River mouth. A multistate mark–recapture model accounted for weekly variation in flow conditions experienced by tagged fish in four discrete river segments. Smolt survival was significantly associated with streamflow in the Roza Reach [river kilometre (rkm) 208–189] and marginally associated with streamflow in the Sunnyside Reach (rkm 169–77). However, smolt survival was not significantly associated with flow in the Naches and Prosser Reaches (rkm 189–169 and rkm 77–3). This discrepancy indicates potential differences in underlying flow-related survival mechanisms, such as predation or passage impediments. Our results clarify trade-offs between flow augmentation for fisheries enhancement and other beneficial uses, and our study design provides a framework for resolving uncertainties about streamflow effects on migratory fish survival in other river systems. 

Quantifying the streamflow response to frozen ground degradation in the source region of the Yellow River within the Budyko framework

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Wang, Taihua; Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Qin, Yue; Wang, Yuhan

2018-03-01

The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is greatly important for water resources throughout the entire Yellow River Basin. Streamflow in the SRYR has experienced great changes over the past few decades, which is closely related to the frozen ground degradation; however, the extent of this influence is still unclear. In this study, the air freezing index (DDFa) is selected as an indicator for the degree of frozen ground degradation. A water-energy balance equation within the Budyko framework is employed to quantify the streamflow response to the direct impact of climate change, which manifests as changes in the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the impact of frozen ground degradation, which can be regarded as part of the indirect impact of climate change. The results show that the direct impact of climate change and the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 55% and 33%, respectively, of the streamflow decrease for the entire SRYR from Period 1 (1965-1989) to Period 2 (1990-2003). In the permafrost-dominated region upstream of the Jimai hydrological station, the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 71% of the streamflow decrease. From Period 2 (1990-2003) to Period 3 (2004-2015), the observed streamflow did not increase as much as the precipitation; this could be attributed to the combined effects of increasing potential evapotranspiration and more importantly, frozen ground degradation. Frozen ground degradation could influence streamflow by increasing the groundwater storage when the active layer thickness increases in permafrost-dominated regions. These findings will help develop a better understanding of the impact of frozen ground degradation on water resources in the Tibetan Plateau.

Entropy Parameter M in Modeling a Flow Duration Curve

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Yu Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A flow duration curve (FDC is widely used for predicting water supply, hydropower, environmental flow, sediment load, and pollutant load. Among different methods of constructing an FDC, the entropy-based method, developed recently, is appealing because of its several desirable characteristics, such as simplicity, flexibility, and statistical basis. This method contains a parameter, called entropy parameter M, which constitutes the basis for constructing the FDC. Since M is related to the ratio of the average streamflow to the maximum streamflow which, in turn, is related to the drainage area, it may be possible to determine M a priori and construct an FDC for ungauged basins. This paper, therefore, analyzed the characteristics of M in both space and time using streamflow data from 73 gauging stations in the Brazos River basin, Texas, USA. Results showed that the M values were impacted by reservoir operation and possibly climate change. The values were fluctuating, but relatively stable, after the operation of the reservoirs. Parameter M was found to change inversely with the ratio of average streamflow to the maximum streamflow. When there was an extreme event, there occurred a jump in the M value. Further, spatially, M had a larger value if the drainage area was small.

Application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model to simulate streamflow in a PNW forest watershed

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A. Srivastava; M. Dobre; E. Bruner; W. J. Elliot; I. S. Miller; J. Q. Wu

2011-01-01

Assessment of water yields from watersheds into streams and rivers is critical to managing water supply and supporting aquatic life. Surface runoff typically contributes the most to peak discharge of a hydrograph while subsurface flow dominates the falling limb of hydrograph and baseflow contributes to streamflow from shallow unconfined aquifers primarily during the...

A comparison of four streamflow record extension techniques

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Hirsch, Robert M.

1982-01-01

One approach to developing time series of streamflow, which may be used for simulation and optimization studies of water resources development activities, is to extend an existing gage record in time by exploiting the interstation correlation between the station of interest and some nearby (long-term) base station. Four methods of extension are described, and their properties are explored. The methods are regression (REG), regression plus noise (RPN), and two new methods, maintenance of variance extension types 1 and 2 (MOVE.l, MOVE.2). MOVE.l is equivalent to a method which is widely used in psychology, biometrics, and geomorphology and which has been called by various names, e.g., ‘line of organic correlation,’ ‘reduced major axis,’ ‘unique solution,’ and ‘equivalence line.’ The methods are examined for bias and standard error of estimate of moments and order statistics, and an empirical examination is made of the preservation of historic low-flow characteristics using 50-year-long monthly records from seven streams. The REG and RPN methods are shown to have serious deficiencies as record extension techniques. MOVE.2 is shown to be marginally better than MOVE.l, according to the various comparisons of bias and accuracy.

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

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Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

2017-01-01

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Regional flow duration curves for ungauged sites in Sicily

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F. Viola

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Flow duration curves are simple and powerful tools to deal with many hydrological and environmental problems related to water quality assessment, water-use assessment and water allocation. Unfortunately the scarcity of streamflow data enables the use of these instruments only for gauged basins. A regional model is developed here for estimating flow duration curves at ungauged basins in Sicily, Italy. Due to the complex ephemeral behavior of the examined region, this study distinguishes dry periods, when flows are zero, from wet periods using a three parameters power law to describe the frequency distribution of flows. A large dataset of streamflows has been analyzed and the parameters of flow duration curves have been derived for about fifty basins. Regional regression equations have been developed to derive flow duration curves starting from morphological basin characteristics.

Prediction of Missing Streamflow Data using Principle of Information Entropy

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Santosa, B.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Incomplete (missing of streamflow data often occurs. This can be caused by a not continous data recording or poor storage. In this study, missing consecutive streamflow data are predicted using the principle of information entropy. Predictions are performed ​​using the complete monthly streamflow information from the nearby river. Data on average monthly streamflow used as a simulation sample are taken from observation stations Katulampa, Batubeulah, and Genteng, which are the Ciliwung Cisadane river areas upstream. The simulated prediction of missing streamflow data in 2002 and 2003 at Katulampa Station are based on information from Genteng Station, and Batubeulah Station. The mean absolute error (MAE average obtained was 0,20 and 0,21 in 2002 and the MAE average in 2003 was 0,12 and 0,16. Based on the value of the error and pattern of filled gaps, this method has the potential to be developed further.

Uncertainty contributions to low flow projections in Austria

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Parajka, J.; Blaschke, A. P.; Blöschl, G.; Haslinger, K.; Hepp, G.; Laaha, G.; Schöner, W.; Trautvetter, H.; Viglione, A.; Zessner, M.

2015-11-01

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterizations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976-1986, 1987-1997, 1998-2008), which allows disentangling the effect of modeling uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the calibration uncertainty in terms of Q95 is larger in basins with summer low flow regime than in basins with winter low flow regime. Using different calibration periods may result in a range of up to 60 % in simulated Q95 low flows. The low flow projections show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10-30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range -5 to -20 % for the period 2021-2050 relative the reference period 1976-2008. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the Northern Alps and later low flows in Eastern Austria. In 85 % of the basins, the uncertainty in Q95 from model calibration is larger than the uncertainty from different climate scenarios. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with winter low flow regime and, in some basins, exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows and the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. While the calibration uncertainty dominates over climate

The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

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Van Beusekom, Ashley; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland; Gould, William A.; Collazo, Jaime; Henareh Khalyani, Azad

2014-01-01

This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.

A comparison of dobutamine and levosimendan on hepatic blood flow in patients with a low cardiac output state after cardiac surgery: a randomised controlled study.

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Alvarez, J; Baluja, A; Selas, S; Otero, P; Rial, M; Veiras, S; Caruezo, V; Taboada, M; Rodriguez, I; Castroagudin, J; Tome, S; Rodriguez, A; Rodriguez, J

2013-11-01

Liver dysfunction due to a low cardiac output state after cardiac surgery is associated with a poor prognosis, but whether one inotrope is superior to another in improving hepatic perfusion remains uncertain. This study compared the systemic and hepatic haemodynamic effects of levosimendan to dobutamine in patients with a low cardiac output state (cardiac index flow (ml/min): 614.0±124.7, 585.9±144.8; pulsatility index: 2.02±0,28, 2.98±0.27 versus the levosimendan group: cardiac index: 3.02± 0.27, 2.98± 0.30; portal vein flow: 723.0± 143.5, 702.9±117.8; pulsatility index: 1.71±0.26, 1.73±0.27). The improvement in portal vein blood flow at 48 hours was significantly better after levosimendan than dobutamine (41% vs. 11% increment from baseline, Pflow through both the hepatic artery and portal venous system, whereas dobutamine can only improve the portal venous blood flow without vasodilating the hepatic artery.

Instream flow needs below peaking hydroelectric projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milhous, R.T.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on a method developed to assist in the determination of instream flow needs below hydroelectric projects operated in a peaking mode. Peaking hydroelectric projects significantly change streamflow over a short period of time; consequently, any instream flow methodology must consider the dual flows associated with peaking projects. The dual flows are the lowest flow and the maximum generation flow of a peaking cycle. The methodology is based on elements of the Physical Habitat Simulation System of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and uses habitat, rather than fish numbers or biomas, as at basic response variable. All aquatic animals are subject to the rapid changes in streamflow which cause rapid swings in habitat quality. Some aquatic organisms are relatively fixed in location in the stream while others can move when flows change. The habitat available from a project operated in peaking mode is considered to be the minimum habitat occurring during a cycle of habitat change. The methodology takes in to consideration that some aquatic animals can move and others cannot move during a peaking cycle

Impact of LUCC on streamflow based on the SWAT model over the Wei River basin on the Loess Plateau in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Wang

2017-04-01

impact on both soil flow and baseflow by compensating for reduced surface runoff, which leads to a slight increase in the streamflow in the Wei River with the mixed landscapes on the Loess Plateau that include earth–rock mountain area.

Reconstructing pre-instrumental streamflow in Eastern Australia using a water balance approach

Science.gov (United States)

Tozer, C. R.; Kiem, A. S.; Vance, T. R.; Roberts, J. L.; Curran, M. A. J.; Moy, A. D.

2018-03-01

Streamflow reconstructions based on paleoclimate proxies provide much longer records than the short instrumental period records on which water resource management plans are currently based. In Australia there is a lack of in-situ high resolution paleoclimate proxy records, but remote proxies with teleconnections to Australian climate have utility in producing streamflow reconstructions. Here we investigate, via a case study for a catchment in eastern Australia, the novel use of an Antarctic ice-core based rainfall reconstruction within a Budyko-framework to reconstruct ∼1000 years of annual streamflow. The resulting streamflow reconstruction captures interannual to decadal variability in the instrumental streamflow, validating both the use of the ice core rainfall proxy record and the Budyko-framework method. In the preinstrumental era the streamflow reconstruction shows longer wet and dry epochs and periods of streamflow variability that are higher than observed in the instrumental era. Importantly, for both the instrumental record and preinstrumental reconstructions, the wet (dry) epochs in the rainfall record are shorter (longer) in the streamflow record and this non-linearity must be considered when inferring hydroclimatic risk or historical water availability directly from rainfall proxy records alone. These insights provide a better understanding of present infrastructure vulnerability in the context of past climate variability for eastern Australia. The streamflow reconstruction presented here also provides a better understanding of the range of hydroclimatic variability possible, and therefore represents a more realistic baseline on which to quantify the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water security.

A New Streamflow-Routing (SFR1) Package to Simulate Stream-Aquifer Interaction with MODFLOW-2000

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Prudic, David E.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Banta, Edward R.

2004-01-01

The increasing concern for water and its quality require improved methods to evaluate the interaction between streams and aquifers and the strong influence that streams can have on the flow and transport of contaminants through many aquifers. For this reason, a new Streamflow-Routing (SFR1) Package was written for use with the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW-2000 ground-water flow model. The SFR1 Package is linked to the Lake (LAK3) Package, and both have been integrated with the Ground-Water Transport (GWT) Process of MODFLOW-2000 (MODFLOW-GWT). SFR1 replaces the previous Stream (STR1) Package, with the most important difference being that stream depth is computed at the midpoint of each reach instead of at the beginning of each reach, as was done in the original Stream Package. This approach allows for the addition and subtraction of water from runoff, precipitation, and evapotranspiration within each reach. Because the SFR1 Package computes stream depth differently than that for the original package, a different name was used to distinguish it from the original Stream (STR1) Package. The SFR1 Package has five options for simulating stream depth and four options for computing diversions from a stream. The options for computing stream depth are: a specified value; Manning's equation (using a wide rectangular channel or an eight-point cross section); a power equation; or a table of values that relate flow to depth and width. Each stream segment can have a different option. Outflow from lakes can be computed using the same options. Because the wetted perimeter is computed for the eight-point cross section and width is computed for the power equation and table of values, the streambed conductance term no longer needs to be calculated externally whenever the area of streambed changes as a function of flow. The concentration of solute is computed in a stream network when MODFLOW-GWT is used in conjunction with the SFR1 Package. The concentration of a solute in a

Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

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Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2015-12-04

Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

Variance analysis of forecasted streamflow maxima in a wet temperate climate

Science.gov (United States)

Al Aamery, Nabil; Fox, James F.; Snyder, Mark; Chandramouli, Chandra V.

2018-05-01

Coupling global climate models, hydrologic models and extreme value analysis provides a method to forecast streamflow maxima, however the elusive variance structure of the results hinders confidence in application. Directly correcting the bias of forecasts using the relative change between forecast and control simulations has been shown to marginalize hydrologic uncertainty, reduce model bias, and remove systematic variance when predicting mean monthly and mean annual streamflow, prompting our investigation for maxima streamflow. We assess the variance structure of streamflow maxima using realizations of emission scenario, global climate model type and project phase, downscaling methods, bias correction, extreme value methods, and hydrologic model inputs and parameterization. Results show that the relative change of streamflow maxima was not dependent on systematic variance from the annual maxima versus peak over threshold method applied, albeit we stress that researchers strictly adhere to rules from extreme value theory when applying the peak over threshold method. Regardless of which method is applied, extreme value model fitting does add variance to the projection, and the variance is an increasing function of the return period. Unlike the relative change of mean streamflow, results show that the variance of the maxima's relative change was dependent on all climate model factors tested as well as hydrologic model inputs and calibration. Ensemble projections forecast an increase of streamflow maxima for 2050 with pronounced forecast standard error, including an increase of +30(±21), +38(±34) and +51(±85)% for 2, 20 and 100 year streamflow events for the wet temperate region studied. The variance of maxima projections was dominated by climate model factors and extreme value analyses.

Assessment of GPM and TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products in Streamflow Simulations in a Data-Sparse Mountainous Watershed in Myanmar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Yuan

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Satellite precipitation products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission and its predecessor the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM are a critical data source for hydrological applications in ungauged basins. This study conducted an initial and early evaluation of the performance of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG final run and the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42V7 precipitation products, and their feasibility in streamflow simulations in the Chindwin River basin, Myanmar, from April 2014 to December 2015 was also assessed. Results show that, although IMERG and 3B42V7 can potentially capture the spatiotemporal patterns of historical precipitation, the two products contain considerable errors. Compared with 3B42V7, no significant improvements were found in IMERG. Moreover, 3B42V7 outperformed IMERG at daily and monthly scales and in heavy rain detections at four out of five gauges. The large errors in IMERG and 3B42V7 distinctly propagated to streamflow simulations via the Xinanjiang hydrological model, with a significant underestimation of total runoff and high flows. The bias correction of the satellite precipitation effectively improved the streamflow simulations. The 3B42V7-based streamflow simulations performed better than the gauge-based simulations. In general, IMERG and 3B42V7 are feasible for use in streamflow simulations in the study area, although 3B42V7 is better suited than IMERG.

Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions.

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Iles, Carley E; Hegerl, Gabriele C

2015-11-01

Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1-6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8-10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20 th and late 19 th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions - a significant (peruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability.

Application of direct-injection detector integrated with the multi-pumping flow system to chemiluminescence determination of the total polyphenol index.

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Nalewajko-Sieliwoniuk, Edyta; Iwanowicz, Magdalena; Kalinowski, Sławomir; Kojło, Anatol

2016-03-10

In this work, we present a novel chemiluminescence (CL) method based on direct-injection detector (DID) integrated with the multi-pumping flow system (MPFS) to chemiluminescence determination of the total polyphenol index. In this flow system, the sample and the reagents are injected directly into the cone-shaped detection cell placed in front of the photomultiplier window. Such construction of the detection chamber allows for fast measurement of the CL signal in stopped-flow conditions immediately after mixing the reagents. The proposed DID-CL-MPFS method is based on the chemiluminescence of nanocolloidal manganese(IV)-hexametaphosphate-ethanol system. The application of ethanol as a sensitizer, eliminated the use of carcinogenic formaldehyde. Under the optimized experimental conditions, the chemiluminescence intensities are proportional to the concentration of gallic acid in the range from 5 to 350 ng mL(-1). The DID-CL-MPFS method offers a number of advantages, including low limit of detection (0.80 ng mL(-1)), high precision (RSD = 3.3%) and high sample throughput (144 samples h(-1)) as well as low consumption of reagents, energy and low waste generation. The proposed method has been successfully applied to determine the total polyphenol index (expressed as gallic acid equivalent) in a variety of plant-derived food samples (wine, tea, coffee, fruit and vegetable juices, herbs, spices). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-09-01

Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

Polytropic index of ions in the Earth magnetosheath

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Pang, X.; Cao, J.; Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

Useing the data of Cluster from 2001 to 2009, the polytropic index of the magnetosheath ions are calculated by the method of homogeneous MHD Bernoulli integral (MBI). The spatial distribution of ion polytropic index and modulation by low frequency MHD disturbances (4-18 mHz) are studied. The main results are as follows: The magnetosheath is a turbulent system in which the polytropic index of ions ranges from -2 to 3. The distribution of ion polytropic index is dependent on the electromagnetic energy flux perpendicular to the streamline. The median polytropic index of ions in the magnetosheath is 0.960, 0.965, and 0.974 for perpendicular electromagnetic energy ratio δE×Belectromagnetic energy between neighboring streamflow tubes, the magnetosheath ions are isothermal. However, when δE×B increases, the isobaric polytropic process starts to emerge. The median polytropic indexes of ions in the GSE X-Y plane of the equatorial magnetosheath decreases from the magnetopause to the bow shock. The magnetosheath ions are basically between isothermal and adiabatic in the inner magnetosheath (near the magnetopause), around isothermal in the middle magnetosheath, and between isothermal and isobaric in the outer magnetosheath. The spatial distributions of the correlation coefficient between the perturbed ion number density and parallel magnetic field CC_δnδB|| have a good correlation with the distribution of polytropic index. The quasi-perpendicular disturbances are basically mirror-like modes (DrEarth line. The polytropic indexes in the inner and middle magnetosheath modulated by mirror-like mode disturbances (CC_δnδB||<0) are between 0.9 and 1.2. The quasi-parallel propagating low frequency disturbances are predominantly slow modes in the inner magnetosheath and Alfvén modes in the middle and outer magnetosheath. For the samples with quasi-perpendicular propagating disturbances, the polytropic process is basically between isothermal and isobaric except near the

Application of ANN and fuzzy logic algorithms for streamflow ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The present study focusses on development of models using ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) algorithm for predicting the streamflow for catchment of Savitri River Basin. The input vector to these models were daily rainfall, mean daily evaporation, mean daily temperature and lag streamflow used. In the present study, 20 years ...

Genetic Algorithm Based Framework for Automation of Stochastic Modeling of Multi-Season Streamflows

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Srivastav, R. K.; Srinivasan, K.; Sudheer, K.

2009-05-01

Synthetic streamflow data generation involves the synthesis of likely streamflow patterns that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed streamflow data. The various kinds of stochastic models adopted for multi-season streamflow generation in hydrology are: i) parametric models which hypothesize the form of the periodic dependence structure and the distributional form a priori (examples are PAR, PARMA); disaggregation models that aim to preserve the correlation structure at the periodic level and the aggregated annual level; ii) Nonparametric models (examples are bootstrap/kernel based methods), which characterize the laws of chance, describing the stream flow process, without recourse to prior assumptions as to the form or structure of these laws; (k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), matched block bootstrap (MABB)); non-parametric disaggregation model. iii) Hybrid models which blend both parametric and non-parametric models advantageously to model the streamflows effectively. Despite many of these developments that have taken place in the field of stochastic modeling of streamflows over the last four decades, accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics has been posing a persistent challenge to the stochastic modeler. This is partly because, usually, the stochastic streamflow model parameters are estimated by minimizing a statistically based objective function (such as maximum likelihood (MLE) or least squares (LS) estimation) and subsequently the efficacy of the models is being validated based on the accuracy of prediction of the estimates of the water-use characteristics, which requires large number of trial simulations and inspection of many plots and tables. Still accurate prediction of the storage and the critical drought characteristics may not be ensured. In this study a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to find the optimal hybrid model (blend of a simple parametric model, PAR(1) model and matched block

Low flow and drought spatial analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dakova, Snejana

2004-01-01

The hydrological characteristics of Bulgarian rivers reflect to the climate variability. Nearly all precipitation is received during the spring and/or winter months, with negligible precipitations in summer. Thus, peak flows occur in spring and/or winter, and during the summer, the flow is significant lower with many rivers being ephemeral. Therefore, 2210 reservoirs for satisfaction the water needs have been constructed during the last sixty years. In spit of that, Bulgaria is facing to a new insufficiency of water. The recent climate change investigations and climate scenarios determine the area of Balkan Peninsula as territories with decreasing of rainfalls and increasing of air temperature. In view of that, research the low flow in the light of climate changing together with the water management is required. In this study the definitions of low flow and drought are developed using available data obtained in Bulgarian area, which has semiarid zone conditions. The difference between the terms of drought and low flow is describing and clarified also. The low flow and drought variables are investigated on two levels: first on long-year's variability using annual data and than monthly and seasonal data series-for enabling the within-year effects to be determined. The relationship between the probability of river's dry up and mean annual and seasonal rainfalls is quantified using multiple regressions applied to logarithmic- transformed data. This paper presets also analyses of minimum flow series with zero values. The exceed probability above which stream flow is zero and conditional probability of non-zero flow (non-zero-duration curve) is obtained by the principals of total probability. A different kind of adjusting duration curves are proposed depending of the number of zero values in the series.(Author)

Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America

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Kam, Jonghun; Knutson, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C. D.

2018-01-01

Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.

Origins of streamflow in a crystalline basement catchment in a sub-humid Sudanian zone: The Donga basin (Benin, West Africa): Inter-annual variability of water budget

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Séguis, L.; Kamagaté, B.; Favreau, G.; Descloitres, M.; Seidel, J.-L.; Galle, S.; Peugeot, C.; Gosset, M.; Le Barbé, L.; Malinur, F.; Van Exter, S.; Arjounin, M.; Boubkraoui, S.; Wubda, M.

2011-05-01

SummaryDuring the last quarter of the 20th century, West Africa underwent a particularly intense and generalized drought. During this period, the biggest drops in streamflow were observed in the Sudanian zone rather than in the Sahelian zone, but the reasons are still poorly understood. In 2000, a meso-scale hydrological observatory was set up in the sub-humid Sudanian zone of the Upper Ouémé Valley (Benin). Three embedded catchments of 12-586 km 2 located on a crystalline bedrock were intensively instrumented to document the different terms of the water budget and to identify the main streamflow generating processes and base-flow mechanisms at different scales. Geophysical, hydrological and geochemical data were collected throughout the catchments from 2002 to 2006. Crossing these data helped define their hydrological functioning. The region has seasonal streamflow, and the permanent groundwater in the weathered mantle does not drain to rivers, instead, seasonal perched groundwaters are the major contributor to annual streamflow. The perched groundwaters are mainly located in seasonally waterlogged sandy layers in the headwater bottom-lands called bas-fonds in French-speaking West Africa of 1st order streams. During the period 2003-2006, regolith groundwater recharge ranged between 10% and 15% of the annual rainfall depth. Depletion of permanent groundwater during the dry season is probably explained by local evapotranspiration which was seen not to be limited to gallery forests. During the 4-year study period, a reduction of 20% in annual rainfall led to a 50% reduction in streamflow. This reduction was observed in the two components of the flow: direct runoff and drainage of perched groundwater. Thanks to the comprehensive dataset obtained, the results obtained for the Donga experimental catchment are now being extrapolated to the whole upper Ouémé valley, which can be considered as representative of sub-humid Sudanian rivers flowing on a crystalline

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

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Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a

A modeling approach to establish environmental flow threshold in ungauged semidiurnal tidal river

Science.gov (United States)

Akter, A.; Tanim, A. H.

2018-03-01

Due to shortage of flow monitoring data in ungauged semidiurnal river, 'environmental flow' (EF) determination based on its key component 'minimum low flow' is always difficult. For EF assessment this study selected a reach immediately after the Halda-Karnafuli confluence, a unique breeding ground for Indian Carp fishes of Bangladesh. As part of an ungauged tidal river, EF threshold establishment faces challenges in changing ecological paradigms with periodic change of tides and hydrologic alterations. This study describes a novel approach through modeling framework comprising hydrological, hydrodynamic and habitat simulation model. The EF establishment was conceptualized according to the hydrologic process of an ungauged semi-diurnal tidal regime in four steps. Initially, a hydrologic model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to simulate flow considering land use changes effect on streamflow, seepage loss of channel, friction dominated tidal decay as well as lack of long term flow characteristics. Secondly, to define hydraulic habitat feature, a statistical analysis on derived flow data was performed to identify 'habitat suitability'. Thirdly, to observe the ecological habitat behavior based on the identified hydrologic alteration, hydraulic habitat features were investigated. Finally, based on the combined habitat suitability index flow alteration and ecological response relationship was established. Then, the obtained EF provides a set of low flow indices of desired regime and thus the obtained discharge against maximum Weighted Usable Area (WUA) was defined as EF threshold for the selected reach. A suitable EF regime condition was obtained within flow range 25-30.1 m3/s i.e., around 10-12% of the mean annual runoff of 245 m3/s and these findings are within researchers' recommendation of minimum flow requirement. Additionally it was observed that tidal characteristics are dominant process in semi-diurnal regime. However, during the study period (2010-2015) the

Changing characteristics of streamflow in the Midwest and its relation to oceanic-atmospheric oscillations

Science.gov (United States)

Thakur, B.; Pathak, P.; Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2016-12-01

The identification of primary drivers of streamflow may prove beneficial in forecasting streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. In the past researches, streamflow in the region have been strongly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The present study takes in to account the pre-defined Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions (e.g., ENSO, PDO, AMO) along with new regions with an intent to identify new significantly correlated regions. This study assesses the interrelationship between sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and seasonal streamflow in the Midwestern U.S. Average Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies, were calculated for 2 different 3 month series: September-November and December-February so as to create a lead time varying from 3 to 9 months. Streamflow were averaged for three seasons: spring (April-June), spring-summer (April-August) and summer (June-August). The correlation between streamflow and SST is analyzed using singular value decomposition for a period of 1960-2013. The result of the study showed several regions-other than the known Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions- that were significantly correlated with streamflow stations. Higher correlation between the climate indices and streamflow were observed as the lead time decreased. The identification of the associations between SST and streamflow and significant SST regions in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean may enhance the skill of streamflow predictability and water management in the region.

Controls on summer low flow

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, C. B.; McNamara, J. P.

2012-12-01

Summer low flow has significant impacts on aquatic flora and fauna, municipal water use, and power generation. However, the controls on the minimum annual summer discharge are complex, including a combination of snowmelt dynamics, summer evapotranspiration demand, and spring, summer precipitation patterns and surface - groundwater interactions. This is especially true in the Rocky Mountain West of the United States, where snowpack provides the majority of water available for spring runoff and groundwater replenishment. In this study, we look at summer low flow conditions at four snow dominated catchments (26 km2 - 2200 km2) in South-central Idaho currently feeling the effects of climate change. Measures of snowmelt dynamics, summer evapotranspiration demand and spring and summer precipitation are used to determine the dominant controls on late summer low flow magnitude, timing and duration. These analyses show that the controls vary between watersheds, with significant implications for the impacts of climate change in snow dominated areas of the Rocky Mountain West.

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM. In addition, future leaf area index (LAI is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

Past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. L. Sun

2012-07-01

Full Text Available To understand the causes of the past water cycle variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and Xiashan within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at four hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend from 1961–2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80 m³ s⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and 1.29 m³ s⁻¹ yr⁻¹ at Meigang and Gaosha, respectively, are statistically significant at the 5% level. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in Meigang (3.79 m³ s⁻¹ yr⁻¹, Gaosha (1.12 m³ s⁻¹ yr⁻¹, and Xiashan (1.34 m³ s⁻¹ yr⁻¹, while the decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19 m³ s⁻¹ yr⁻¹. In addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four watersheds.

For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and SRESB1 for the period of 2061–2100. When the future changes in the soil water storage

An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Clark, Elizabeth; Rothwell, Eric; Clark, Martyn P.; Nijssen, Bart; Brekke, Levi D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.

2017-07-01

For much of the last century, forecasting centers around the world have offered seasonal streamflow predictions to support water management. Recent work suggests that the two major avenues to advance seasonal predictability are improvements in the estimation of initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and the incorporation of climate information. This study investigates the marginal benefits of a variety of methods using IHCs and/or climate information, focusing on seasonal water supply forecasts (WSFs) in five case study watersheds located in the US Pacific Northwest region. We specify two benchmark methods that mimic standard operational approaches - statistical regression against IHCs and model-based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) - and then systematically intercompare WSFs across a range of lead times. Additional methods include (i) statistical techniques using climate information either from standard indices or from climate reanalysis variables and (ii) several hybrid/hierarchical approaches harnessing both land surface and climate predictability. In basins where atmospheric teleconnection signals are strong, and when watershed predictability is low, climate information alone provides considerable improvements. For those basins showing weak teleconnections, custom predictors from reanalysis fields were more effective in forecast skill than standard climate indices. ESP predictions tended to have high correlation skill but greater bias compared to other methods, and climate predictors failed to substantially improve these deficiencies within a trace weighting framework. Lower complexity techniques were competitive with more complex methods, and the hierarchical expert regression approach introduced here (hierarchical ensemble streamflow prediction - HESP) provided a robust alternative for skillful and reliable water supply forecasts at all initialization times. Three key findings from this effort are (1) objective approaches supporting methodologically

Experimental investigation of gas flow rate and electric field effect on refractive index and electron density distribution of cold atmospheric pressure-plasma by optical method, Moiré deflectometry

Science.gov (United States)

Khanzadeh, Mohammad; Jamal, Fatemeh; Shariat, Mahdi

2018-04-01

Nowadays, cold atmospheric-pressure (CAP) helium plasma jets are widely used in material processing devices in various industries. Researchers often use indirect and spectrometric methods for measuring the plasma parameters which are very expensive. In this paper, for the first time, characterization of CAP, i.e., finding its parameters such as refractive index and electron density distribution, was carried out using an optical method, Moiré deflectometry. This method is a wave front analysis technique based on geometric optics. The advantages of this method are simplicity, high accuracy, and low cost along with the non-contact, non-destructive, and direct measurement of CAP parameters. This method demonstrates that as the helium gas flow rate decreases, the refractive index increases. Also, we must note that the refractive index is larger in the gas flow consisting of different flow rates of plasma comparing with the gas flow without the plasma.

Construction of estimated flow- and load-duration curves for Kentucky using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

Science.gov (United States)

Unthank, Michael D.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Williamson, Tanja N.; Nelson, Hugh L.

2012-01-01

Flow- and load-duration curves were constructed from the model outputs of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) application for streams in Kentucky. The WATER application was designed to access multiple geospatial datasets to generate more than 60 years of statistically based streamflow data for Kentucky. The WATER application enables a user to graphically select a site on a stream and generate an estimated hydrograph and flow-duration curve for the watershed upstream of that point. The flow-duration curves are constructed by calculating the exceedance probability of the modeled daily streamflows. User-defined water-quality criteria and (or) sampling results can be loaded into the WATER application to construct load-duration curves that are based on the modeled streamflow results. Estimates of flow and streamflow statistics were derived from TOPographically Based Hydrological MODEL (TOPMODEL) simulations in the WATER application. A modified TOPMODEL code, SDP-TOPMODEL (Sinkhole Drainage Process-TOPMODEL) was used to simulate daily mean discharges over the period of record for 5 karst and 5 non-karst watersheds in Kentucky in order to verify the calibrated model. A statistical evaluation of the model's verification simulations show that calibration criteria, established by previous WATER application reports, were met thus insuring the model's ability to provide acceptably accurate estimates of discharge at gaged and ungaged sites throughout Kentucky. Flow-duration curves are constructed in the WATER application by calculating the exceedence probability of the modeled daily flow values. The flow-duration intervals are expressed as a percentage, with zero corresponding to the highest stream discharge in the streamflow record. Load-duration curves are constructed by applying the loading equation (Load = Flow*Water-quality criterion) at each flow interval.

Hydrology, sediment transport dynamics and geomorphology of a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The co-efficient of variation for inter-annual streamflow of the Mfolozi River is extremely high at 79%. An analysis of flow frequency indicated that streamflow is skewed towards low-flow values, with a number of extremely large flood events occurring as outliers on the histogram. Streamflow variability in the Mfolozi River may ...

Coronary physiological assessment combining fractional flow reserve and index of microcirculatory resistance in patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention with grey zone fractional flow reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

Niida, Takayuki; Murai, Tadashi; Yonetsu, Taishi; Kanaji, Yoshihisa; Usui, Eisuke; Matsuda, Junji; Hoshino, Masahiro; Araki, Makoto; Yamaguchi, Masao; Hada, Masahiro; Ichijyo, Sadamitsu; Hamaya, Rikuta; Kanno, Yoshinori; Isobe, Mitsuaki; Kakuta, Tsunekazu

2018-03-08

The aim of this study is to investigate the association between fractional flow reserve (FFR) values and change in coronary physiological indices after elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Decision making for revascularization when FFR is 0.75-0.80 is controversial. A retrospective analysis was performed of 296 patients with stable angina pectoris who underwent physiological examinations before and after PCI. To investigate the differences of coronary flow improvement between territories with low-FFR (zone FFR (0.75-0.80), serial changes in physiological indices including mean transit time (Tmn), coronary flow reserve (CFR), and index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) were compared between these two groups. Compared to low-FFR territories, grey-zone FFR territories showed significantly lower prevalence of Tmn shortening, CFR improvement, and decrease in IMR (Tmn shorting, 63.9% vs. 87.0%, P 51.3% vs. 63.3%, P = .040) and lower extent of their absolute changes (Tmn shorting, 0.06 (-0.03 to 0.16) vs. 0.22 (0.07-0.45), P zone FFR. Physiological assessment combining FFR and IMR may help identify patients who may benefit by PCI, particularly those in the grey zone. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A watershed modeling approach to streamflow reconstruction from tree-ring records

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, Laurel; Biondi, Franco; Salas, Jose D; Panorska, Anna K; Kozubowski, Tomasz J

2008-01-01

Insight into long-term changes of streamflow is critical for addressing implications of global warming for sustainable water management. To date, dendrohydrologists have employed sophisticated regression techniques to extend runoff records, but this empirical approach cannot directly test the influence of watershed factors that alter streamflow independently of climate. We designed a mechanistic watershed model to calculate streamflows at annual timescales using as few inputs as possible. The model was calibrated for upper reaches of the Walker River, which straddles the boundary between the Sierra Nevada of California and the Great Basin of Nevada. Even though the model incorporated simplified relationships between precipitation and other components of the hydrologic cycle, it predicted water year streamflows with correlations of 0.87 when appropriate precipitation values were used

A pilot study of the relationship between Doppler-estimated carotid and brachial artery flow and cardiac index.

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Weber, U; Glassford, N J; Eastwood, G M; Bellomo, R; Hilton, A K

2015-10-01

We measured carotid and brachial artery blood flow by Doppler ultrasound in 11 human volunteers, and related these to cardiac index and to each other. The median (IQR [range]) carotid arterial blood flow was 0.334 (0.223-0.381 [0.052-0.563]) l.min(-1) on the right and 0.315 (0.223-0.369 [0.061-0.690]) l.min(-1) on the left. The brachial arterial blood flow was 0.049 (0.033-0.062 [0.015-0.204]) l.min(-1) on the right and 0.039 (0.027-0.054 [0.011-0.116]) on the left. Cardiac index was 3.2 (2.8-3.5 [1.9-5.4]) l.min(-1) .m(-2) . There was a moderate to good correlation between right-and left-sided flows (brachial: ρ = 0.45; carotid: ρ = 0.567). Brachial and carotid flow had no or a negative correlation with cardiac index (right brachial: ρ = -0.145, left brachial: ρ = -0.349; right carotid: ρ = -0.376, left carotid: ρ = -0.285). In contrast to some previous studies, we found that Doppler-estimated peripheral arterial blood flows only show a weak correlation with cardiac index and cannot be used to provide non-invasive estimates of cardiac index in man. © 2015 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation inferred from streamflow observations across the Sierra Nevada mountain range

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Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2018-01-01

Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain

Evaluating a Radar-Based, Non Contact Streamflow Measurement System in the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, California

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Ralph T.; Gartner, Jeffrey W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Costa, John E.; Plant, William J.; Spicer, Kurt R.; Haeni, F. Peter; Melcher, Nick B.; Keller, William C.; Hayes, Ken

2004-01-01

Accurate measurement of flow in the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, California, is vital to a wide range of Federal and State agencies, environmental interests, and water contractors. The U.S. Geological Survey uses a conventional stage-discharge rating technique to determine flows at Vernalis. Since the flood of January 1997, the channel has scoured and filled as much as 20 feet in some sections near the measurement site resulting in an unstable stage-discharge rating. In response to recent advances in measurement techniques and the need for more accurate measurement methods, the Geological Survey has undertaken a technology demonstration project to develop and deploy a radar-based streamflow measuring system on the bank of the San Joaquin River at Vernalis, California. The proposed flow-measurement system consists of a ground-penetrating radar system for mapping channel geometries, a microwave radar system for measuring surface velocities, and other necessary infrastructure. Cross-section information derived from ground penetrating radar provided depths similar to those measured by other instruments during the study. Likewise, surface-velocity patterns and magnitudes measured by the pulsed Doppler radar system are consistent with near surface current measurements derived from acoustic velocity instruments. Since the ratio of surface velocity to mean velocity falls to within a small range of theoretical value, using surface velocity as an index velocity to compute river discharge is feasable. Ultimately, the non-contact radar system may be used to make continuous, near-real-time flow measurements during high and medium flows. This report documents the data collected between April 14, 2002 and May 17, 2002 for the purposes of testing this radar based system. Further analyses of the data collected during this field effort will lead to further development and improvement of the system.

Performance and Uncertainty Evaluation of Snow Models on Snowmelt Flow Simulations over a Nordic Catchment (Mistassibi, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magali Troin

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An analysis of hydrological response to a multi-model approach based on an ensemble of seven snow models (SM; degree-day and mixed degree-day/energy balance models coupled with three hydrological models (HM is presented for a snowmelt-dominated basin in Canada. The present study aims to compare the performance and the reliability of different types of SM-HM combinations at simulating snowmelt flows over the 1961–2000 historical period. The multi-model approach also allows evaluating the uncertainties associated with the structure of the SM-HM ensemble to better predict river flows in Nordic environments. The 20-year calibration shows a satisfactory performance of the ensemble of 21 SM-HM combinations at simulating daily discharges and snow water equivalents (SWEs, with low streamflow volume biases. The validation of the ensemble of 21 SM-HM combinations is conducted over a 20-year period. Performances are similar to the calibration in simulating the daily discharges and SWEs, again with low model biases for streamflow. The spring-snowmelt-generated peak flow is captured only in timing by the ensemble of 21 SM-HM combinations. The results of specific hydrologic indicators show that the uncertainty related to the choice of the given HM in the SM-HM combinations cannot be neglected in a more quantitative manner in simulating snowmelt flows. The selection of the SM plays a larger role than the choice of the SM approach (degree-day versus mixed degree-day/energy balance in simulating spring flows. Overall, the snow models provide a low degree of uncertainty to the total uncertainty in hydrological modeling for snow hydrology studies.

Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Asadieh

2016-05-01

Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

Application of the Streamflow Prediction Tool to Estimate Sediment Dredging Volumes in Texas Coastal Waterways

Science.gov (United States)

Yeates, E.; Dreaper, G.; Afshari, S.; Tavakoly, A. A.

2017-12-01

Over the past six fiscal years, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has contracted an average of about a billion dollars per year for navigation channel dredging. To execute these funds effectively, USACE Districts must determine which navigation channels need to be dredged in a given year. Improving this prioritization process results in more efficient waterway maintenance. This study uses the Streamflow Prediction Tool, a runoff routing model based on global weather forecast ensembles, to estimate dredged volumes. This study establishes regional linear relationships between cumulative flow and dredged volumes over a long-term simulation covering 30 years (1985-2015), using drainage area and shoaling parameters. The study framework integrates the National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus Dataset) with parameters from the Corps Shoaling Analysis Tool (CSAT) and dredging record data from USACE District records. Results in the test cases of the Houston Ship Channel and the Sabine and Port Arthur Harbor waterways in Texas indicate positive correlation between the simulated streamflows and actual dredging records.

Wavelet-linear genetic programming: A new approach for modeling monthly streamflow

Science.gov (United States)

Ravansalar, Masoud; Rajaee, Taher; Kisi, Ozgur

2017-06-01

The streamflows are important and effective factors in stream ecosystems and its accurate prediction is an essential and important issue in water resources and environmental engineering systems. A hybrid wavelet-linear genetic programming (WLGP) model, which includes a discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and a linear genetic programming (LGP) to predict the monthly streamflow (Q) in two gauging stations, Pataveh and Shahmokhtar, on the Beshar River at the Yasuj, Iran were used in this study. In the proposed WLGP model, the wavelet analysis was linked to the LGP model where the original time series of streamflow were decomposed into the sub-time series comprising wavelet coefficients. The results were compared with the single LGP, artificial neural network (ANN), a hybrid wavelet-ANN (WANN) and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) models. The comparisons were done by some of the commonly utilized relevant physical statistics. The Nash coefficients (E) were found as 0.877 and 0.817 for the WLGP model, for the Pataveh and Shahmokhtar stations, respectively. The comparison of the results showed that the WLGP model could significantly increase the streamflow prediction accuracy in both stations. Since, the results demonstrate a closer approximation of the peak streamflow values by the WLGP model, this model could be utilized for the simulation of cumulative streamflow data prediction in one month ahead.

Impact of Different Time Series Streamflow Data on Energy Generation of a Run-of-River Hydropower Plant

Science.gov (United States)

Kentel, E.; Cetinkaya, M. A.

2013-12-01

Global issues such as population increase, power supply crises, oil prices, social and environmental concerns have been forcing countries to search for alternative energy sources such as renewable energy to satisfy the sustainable development goals. Hydropower is the most common form of renewable energy in the world. Hydropower does not require any fuel, produces relatively less pollution and waste and it is a reliable energy source with relatively low operating cost. In order to estimate the average annual energy production of a hydropower plant, sufficient and dependable streamflow data is required. The goal of this study is to investigate impact of streamflow data on annual energy generation of Balkusan HEPP which is a small run-of-river hydropower plant at Karaman, Turkey. Two different stream gaging stations are located in the vicinity of Balkusan HEPP and these two stations have different observation periods: one from 1986 to 2004 and the other from 2000 to 2009. These two observation periods show different climatic characteristics. Thus, annual energy estimations based on data from these two different stations differ considerably. Additionally, neither of these stations is located at the power plant axis, thus streamflow observations from these two stream gaging stations need to be transferred to the plant axis. This requirement introduces further errors into energy estimations. Impact of different streamflow data and transfer of streamflow observations to plant axis on annual energy generation of a small hydropower plant is investigated in this study.

Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

Science.gov (United States)

Dey, Pankaj; Mishra, Ashok

2017-05-01

Climate change and human activity are two major drivers that alter hydrological cycle processes and cause change in spatio-temporal distribution of water availability. Streamflow, the most important component of hydrological cycle undergoes variation which is expected to be influenced by climate change as well as human activities. Since these two affecting conditions are time dependent, having unequal influence, identification of the change point in natural flow regime is of utmost important to separate the individual impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability. Subsequently, it is important as well for framing adaptation strategies and policies for regional water resources planning and management. In this paper, a comprehensive review of different approaches used by research community to isolate the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow are presented. The important issues pertaining to different approaches, to make rational use of methodology, are discussed so that researcher and policymaker can understand the importance of individual methodology and its use in water resources management. A new approach has also been suggested to select a representative change point under different scenarios of human activities with incorporation of climate variability/change.

An electrode polarization impedance based flow sensor for low water flow measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, Tinghu; Sabic, Darko

2013-01-01

This note describes an electrode polarization impedance based flow sensor for low water flow measurement. It consists of two pairs of stainless steel electrodes set apart and inserted into a non-conductive flow tube with each pair of electrodes placed diametrically at the opposite sides. The flow sensor is modeled as a typical four-electrode system of which two electrodes are current-carrying and the other two serve as output pick ups. The polarization impedances of the two current carrying electrodes are affected by water flows resulting in changes of differential potential between the two pick-up electrodes which are separated by the same fluid. The interrogation of the two excitation electrodes with dc biased ac signals offers significantly higher sensor sensitivities to flow. The prototype flow sensor constructed for a 20 mm diameter pipeline was able to measure water flow rate as low as tested at 1.06 l h −1 and remained sensitive at a flow rate of 25.18 l h −1 when it was driven with a sinusoidal voltage at 1000 Hz with a peak ac amplitude of 2 V and a dc offset of +8 V. The nonlinear characteristics of the sensor response indicate that the sensor is more sensitive at low flows and will not be able to measure at very high flows. Additional experiments are needed to evaluate the influences of impurities, chemical species, ions constituents, conductivity and temperature over a practical range of residential water conditions, the effects of fluctuating ground signals, measurement uncertainty, power consumption, compensation of effects and practical operations. The flow sensor (principle) presented may be used as (in) a secondary sensor in combination with an existing electronic water meter to extend the low end of measurement range in residential water metering. (technical design note)

Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological

Trend and variability in a new, reconstructed streamflow dataset for West and Central Africa, and climatic interactions, 1950-2005

Science.gov (United States)

Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2018-06-01

Over recent decades, regions of West and Central Africa have experienced different and significant changes in climatic patterns, which have significantly impacted hydrological regimes. Such impacts, however, are not fully understood at the regional scale, largely because of scarce hydroclimatic data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to (a) assemble a new, robust, reconstructed streamflow dataset of 152 gauging stations; (b) quantify changes in streamflow over 1950-2005 period, using these newly reconstructed datasets; (c) significantly reveal trends and variability in streamflow over West and Central Africa based on new reconstructions; and (d) assess the robustness of this dataset by comparing the results with those identified in key climatic drivers (e.g. precipitation and temperature) over the region. Gap filling methods applied to monthly time series (1950-2005) yielded robust results (median Kling-Gupta Efficiency >0.75). The study underlines a good agreement between precipitation and streamflow trends and reveals contrasts between western Africa (negative trends) and Central Africa (positive trends) in the 1950s and 1960s. Homogenous dry conditions of the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by reduced significant negative trends resulting from quasi-decadal modulations of the trend, are replaced by wetter conditions in the recent period (1993-2005). The effect of this rainfall recovery (which extends to West and Central Africa) on increased river flows are further amplified by land use change in some Sahelian basins. This is partially offset, however, by higher potential evapotranspiration rates over parts of Niger and Nigeria. Crucially, the new reconstructed streamflow datasets presented here will be available for both the scientific community and water resource managers.

Response of streamflow to climate change in a sub-basin of the source region of the Yellow River based on a tank model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Pan; Wang, Xu-Sheng; Liang, Sihai

2018-06-01

Though extensive researches were conducted in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) to analyse climate change influence on streamflow, however, few researches concentrate on streamflow of the sub-basin above the Huangheyan station in the SRYR (HSRYR) where a water retaining dam was built in the outlet in 1999. To improve the reservoir regulation strategies, this study analysed streamflow change of the HSRYR in a mesoscale. A tank model (TM) was proposed and calibrated with monthly observation streamflow from 1991 to 1998. In the validation period, though there is a simulation deviation during the water storage and power generation period, simulated streamflow agrees favourably with observation data from 2008 to 2013. The model was further validated by two inside lakes area obtained from Landsat 5, 7, 8 datasets from 2000 to 2014, and significant correlations were found between the simulated lake outlet runoff and respective lake area. Then 21 Global Climate Models (GCM) ensembled data of three emission scenarios (SRA2, SRA1B and SRB1) were downscaled and used as input to the TM to simulate the runoff change of three benchmark periods 2011-2030 (2020s), 2046-2065 (2050s), 2080-2099 (2090s), respectively. Though temperature increase dramatically, these projected results similarly indicated that streamflow shows an increase trend in the long term. Runoff increase is mainly caused by increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation. Water resources distribution is projected to change from summer-autumn dominant to autumn winter dominant. Annual lowest runoff will occur in May caused by earlier snow melting and increasing evaporation in March. According to the obtained results, winter runoff should be artificially stored by reservoir regulation in the future to prevent zero-flow occurrent in May. This research is helpful for water resources management and provides a better understand of streamflow change caused by climate change in the future.

Sediment acoustic index method for computing continuous suspended-sediment concentrations

Science.gov (United States)

Landers, Mark N.; Straub, Timothy D.; Wood, Molly S.; Domanski, Marian M.

2016-07-11

Suspended-sediment characteristics can be computed using acoustic indices derived from acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) backscatter data. The sediment acoustic index method applied in these types of studies can be used to more accurately and cost-effectively provide time-series estimates of suspended-sediment concentration and load, which is essential for informed solutions to many sediment-related environmental, engineering, and agricultural concerns. Advantages of this approach over other sediment surrogate methods include: (1) better representation of cross-sectional conditions from large measurement volumes, compared to other surrogate instruments that measure data at a single point; (2) high temporal resolution of collected data; (3) data integrity when biofouling is present; and (4) less rating curve hysteresis compared to streamflow as a surrogate. An additional advantage of this technique is the potential expansion of monitoring suspended-sediment concentrations at sites with existing ADVMs used in streamflow velocity monitoring. This report provides much-needed standard techniques for sediment acoustic index methods to help ensure accurate and comparable documented results.

A field study in the Swiss Rietholzbach basin to understand landscape filtering of hydro-climatic drivers and its effects on streamflow composition

Science.gov (United States)

von Freyberg, J.; Schirmer, M.

2013-12-01

Non-linear hydrological behavior of small mountainous watersheds is often attributed to variable streamflow contributions from different landscape units that differ in subsurface properties, vegetation cover and land use. Within this concept, the role of landscape can be seen as that of a filter, translating hydro-climatic drivers into particular streamflow signals - such as discharge rates or water quality. Our research addresses the question of how hydrologic connectivity between the relevant landscape units evolves during storm events and droughts at headwater catchments and seeks to establish a general framework of interdisciplinary interest (e.g., ecology and climate science). We focus on the description of groundwater flow on the local and regional scale, since groundwater - surface water - interaction in the valley bottoms, transport mechanisms of nutrients within hyporheic zones, and groundwater flow dynamics in the shallow subsurface have all been identified as important processes in describing hydrologic catchment response and streamflow composition. Our field-based study takes place in the pre-Alpine Rietholzbach research catchment (~ 3 sq km) in the headwaters of the Thur basin in NE Switzerland. We investigated the effects of landscape properties on river water quality and catchment hydrology over a two-year period. The Rietholzbach research catchment is equipped with a meteorological station, a weighting lysimeter, 20 piezometers, 3 stream gauging stations and various soil moisture and temperature probes, which provide continuous, high-frequency measurements of atmospheric and hydrometric data. These measurements are used in combination with hydro-chemistry data to determine groundwater residence times and streamflow composition. The installed setup facilitates the investigation of annual, inter-seasonal as well as short-term dynamics of water flow and its links to associated parameters describing atmospheric, surface and subsurface properties. We

Influence of diurnal variations in stream temperature on streamflow loss and groundwater recharge

Science.gov (United States)

Constantz, Jim; Thomas, Carole L.; Zellweger, Gary W.

1994-01-01

We demonstrate that for losing reaches with significant diurnal variations in stream temperature, the effect of stream temperature on streambed seepage is a major factor contributing to reduced afternoon streamflows. An explanation is based on the effect of stream temperature on the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed, which can be expected to double in the 0° to 25°C temperature range. Results are presented for field experiments in which stream discharge and temperature were continuously measured for several days over losing reaches at St. Kevin Gulch, Colorado, and Tijeras Arroyo, New Mexico. At St. Kevin Gulch in July 1991, the diurnal stream temperature in the 160-m study reach ranged from about 4° to 18°C, discharges ranged from 10 to 18 L/s, and streamflow loss in the study reach ranged from 2.7 to 3.7 L/s. On the basis of measured stream temperature variations, the predicted change in conductivity was about 38%; the measured change in stream loss was about 26%, suggesting that streambed temperature varied less than the stream temperature. At Tijeras Arroyo in May 1992, diurnal stream temperature in the 655-m study reach ranged from about 10° to 25°C and discharge ranged from 25 to 55 L/s. Streamflow loss was converted to infiltration rates by factoring in the changing stream reach surface area and streamflow losses due to evaporation rates as measured in a hemispherical evaporation chamber. Infiltration rates ranged from about 0.7 to 2.0 m/d, depending on time and location. Based on measured stream temperature variations, the predicted change in conductivity was 29%; the measured change in infiltration was also about 27%. This suggests that high infiltration rates cause rapid convection of heat to the streambed. Evapotranspiration losses were estimated for the reach and adjacent flood plain within the arroyo. On the basis of these estimates, only about 5% of flow loss was consumed via stream evaporation and stream-side evapotranspiration

Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2010-12-01

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

An analytical approach to separate climate and human contributions to basin streamflow variability

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Changbin; Wang, Liuming; Wanrui, Wang; Qi, Jiaguo; Linshan, Yang; Zhang, Yuan; Lei, Wu; Cui, Xia; Wang, Peng

2018-04-01

Climate variability and anthropogenic regulations are two interwoven factors in the ecohydrologic system across large basins. Understanding the roles that these two factors play under various hydrologic conditions is of great significance for basin hydrology and sustainable water utilization. In this study, we present an analytical approach based on coupling water balance method and Budyko hypothesis to derive effectiveness coefficients (ECs) of climate change, as a way to disentangle contributions of it and human activities to the variability of river discharges under different hydro-transitional situations. The climate dominated streamflow change (ΔQc) by EC approach was compared with those deduced by the elasticity method and sensitivity index. The results suggest that the EC approach is valid and applicable for hydrologic study at large basin scale. Analyses of various scenarios revealed that contributions of climate change and human activities to river discharge variation differed among the regions of the study area. Over the past several decades, climate change dominated hydro-transitions from dry to wet, while human activities played key roles in the reduction of streamflow during wet to dry periods. Remarkable decline of discharge in upstream was mainly due to human interventions, although climate contributed more to runoff increasing during dry periods in the semi-arid downstream. Induced effectiveness on streamflow changes indicated a contribution ratio of 49% for climate and 51% for human activities at the basin scale from 1956 to 2015. The mathematic derivation based simple approach, together with the case example of temporal segmentation and spatial zoning, could help people understand variation of river discharge with more details at a large basin scale under the background of climate change and human regulations.

Flow variability and hillslope hydrology