WorldWideScience

Sample records for stratospheric warming event

  1. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  2. Equatorial ionospheric electrodynamic perturbations during Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olson, M. E.; Fejer, B. G.; Stolle, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    quasi 2 day fluctuations during the 2002 early autumnal equinoctial warming. They also show a moderately large multi-day perturbation pattern, resembling those during arctic SSW events, during 2002 late equinox, as the major SSW was weakening. We also compare these data with extensive recent results...

  3. Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

  4. Variabilities of mesospheric tides and equatorial electrojet strength during major stratospheric warming events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sridharan

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study demonstrates the relationship between the high latitude northern hemispheric major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW events and the reversal in the afternoon equatorial electrojet (EEJ, often called the counter-electrojet (CEJ, during the winter months of 1998–1999, 2001–2002, 2003–2004 and 2005–2006. As the EEJ current system is driven by tidal winds, an investigation of tidal variabilities in the MF radar observed zonal winds during the winters of 1998–1999 and 2005–2006 at 88 km over Tirunelveli, a site close to the magnetic equator, shows that there is an enhancement of semi-diurnal tidal amplitude during the days of a major SSW event and a suppression of the same immediately after the event. The significance of the present results lies in demonstrating the latitudinal coupling between the high latitude SSW phenomenon and the equatorial ionospheric current system with clear evidence for major SSW events influencing the day-to-day variability of the CEJ.

  5. Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

  6. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-04-07

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  7. Evaluation of the tropospheric flows to a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with a PSU/NCAR nudging MM5V3 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, K.

    2008-04-01

    Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.

  8. An Investigation of the Ionospheric Disturbances Due to the 2014 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Over Brazilian Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jesus, R.; Batista, I. S.; Jonah, O. F.; de Abreu, A. J.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; Denardini, C. M.

    2017-11-01

    The present study investigates the ionospheric F region response in the Brazilian sector due to sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events of 2014. The data used for this work are obtained from GPS receivers and magnetometer measurements during day of year (DOY) 01 to 120, 2014 at different stations in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in the Brazilian sector. In addition, the data obtained from Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellites during DOY 01 to 75 of 2014 are used. The main novelty of this research is that, during the 2014 SSW events, daytime vertical total electron content (VTEC) shows a strong increase on the order of about 23% and 11% over the equatorial and low-latitude regions, respectively. We also observed that the nighttime VTEC (SSW days) is increased by 8% and 33% over equatorial and low-latitude regions, respectively. The magnetometer measurements show a strong counterelectrojet during the SSW days. The results show an amplification of the 0.5 day and 2-16 day periods in the VTEC and equatorial electrojet during the SSWs. The occurrences of ionospheric irregularities during the SSW events are around 84% and 53% in the equatorial and low-latitude regions, respectively, which is less frequent when compared with those during the pre-SSW periods.

  9. Impact of non-migrating tides on the low latitude ionosphere during a sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, S. E.; Sassi, F.; Tate, J.; McCormack, J.; Kuhl, D. D.; Drob, D. P.; Metzler, C.; Mannucci, A. J.

    2018-06-01

    The lower atmosphere contributes significantly to the day-to-day variability of the ionosphere, especially during solar minimum conditions. Ionosphere/atmosphere model simulations that incorporate meteorology from data assimilation analysis products can be critically important for elucidating the physical processes that have substantial impact on ionospheric weather. In this study, the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM-X) is coupled with an ionospheric model (Sami3 is Another Model of the Ionosphere) to study day-to-day variability in the ionosphere during January 2010. Lower atmospheric weather patterns are introduced into the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X simulations using the 6-h Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) data assimilation products. The same time period is simulated using the new atmospheric forecast model, the High Altitude Navy Global Environmental Model (HA-NAVGEM), a hybrid 4D-Var prototype data assimilation with the ability to produce meteorological fields at a 3-h cadence. Our study shows that forcing SD-WACCM-X with HA-NAVGEM better resolves the semidiurnal tides and introduces more day-to-day variability into the ionosphere than forcing with NOGAPS-ALPHA. The SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulation also more accurately captures the longitudinal variability associated with non-migrating tides in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region as compared to total electron content (TEC) maps derived from GPS data. Both the TEC maps and the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulation show an enhancement in TEC over South America during 17-21 January 2010, which coincides with the commencement of a stratospheric warming event on 19 January 2010. Analysis of the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulations indicates non-migrating tides (including DW4, DE2 and SW5) played a role during 17-21 January in shifting the phase of the wave-3 pattern in

  10. Effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency radio signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, S.; Hobara, Y.; Chakrabarti, S. K.; Schnoor, P. W.

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) radio signals propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Signal amplitudes from four transmitters received by VLF/LF radio networks of Germany and Japan corresponding to the major SSW event are investigated for possible anomalies and atmospheric influence on the high- to middle-latitude ionosphere. Significant anomalous increase or decrease of nighttime and daytime amplitudes of VLF/LF signals by ˜3-5 dB during the SSW event have been found for all propagation paths associated with stratospheric temperature rise at 10 hPa level. Increase or decrease in VLF/LF amplitudes during daytime and nighttime is actually due to the modification of the lower ionospheric boundary conditions in terms of electron density and electron-neutral collision frequency profiles and associated modal interference effects between the different propagating waveguide modes during the SSW period. TIMED/SABER mission data are also used to investigate the upper mesospheric conditions over the VLF/LF propagation path during the same time period. We observe a decrease in neutral temperature and an increase in pressure at the height of 75-80 km around the peak time of the event. VLF/LF anomalies are correlated and in phase with the stratospheric temperature and mesospheric pressure variation, while minimum of mesospheric cooling shows a 2-3 day delay with maximum VLF/LF anomalies. Simulations of VLF/LF diurnal variation are performed using the well-known Long Wave Propagating Capability (LWPC) code within the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to explain the VLF/LF anomalies qualitatively.

  11. Variabilities of Low-Latitude Migrating and Nonmigrating Tides in GPS-TEC and TIMED-SABER Temperature During the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event of 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.

    2017-10-01

    The Global Positioning System deduced total electron content (TEC) data at 15°N (geomagnetic), which is the crest region of equatorial ionization anomaly, are used to study tidal variabilities during the 2013 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. The results from space-time spectral analysis reveal that the amplitudes of migrating diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides are larger than those of nonmigrating tides. After the SSW onset, the amplitudes of DW1, SW2, SW1, and DS0 increase. Moreover, they show 16 day variations similar to the periodicity of the high-latitude stratospheric planetary wave (PW), suggesting that the nonmigrating tides (SW1 and DS0) are possibly generated due to nonlinear interaction of migrating tides with PW. Similar spectral analysis on temperature at 10°N obtained from the Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) shows that the SW2 enhances at stratospheric heights and the SW2 is more dominant at 80-90 km, but its amplitude decreases around 100 km. The amplitudes of nonmigrating tides become comparable to those of SW2 around 100 km, and their contribution becomes increasingly important at higher heights. This suggests that the nonlinear interaction between migrating tides and PW occurs at low-latitude upper mesospheric heights, as SW2 exhibits 16 day periodicity in SABER temperature at 100 km as observed in TEC. Besides, it is observed that the eastward propagating tides are less dominant than westward propagating tides in both TEC and SABER temperatures.

  12. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  13. Evidence for Dynamical Coupling of Stratosphere-MLT during recent minor Stratospheric Warmings in Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongha; Sunkara, Eswaraiah; Hong, Junseok; Ratnam, Venkat; Chandran, Amal; Rao, Svb; Riggin, Dennis

    2015-04-01

    The mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) response to extremely rare minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events was observed for the first time in the southern hemisphere (SH) during 2010 and is investigated using the meteor radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica. Three episodic SSWs were noticed from early August to late October 2010. The mesospheric wind field was found to significantly differ from normal years due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSWs and secondary PWs in the MLT afterwards. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the SSW occurrence in the stratosphere as has been observed 2002 major SSW, suggesting the downward propagation of disturbance during minor SSWs as well. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with SSWs are found in the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. SD-WACCM simulations are able to produce these observed features.

  14. A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

  15. The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.

  16. A vortex dynamics perspective on stratospheric sudden warmings

    OpenAIRE

    Matthewman, N. J.

    2009-01-01

    A vortex dynamics approach is used to study the underlying mechanisms leading to polar vortex breakdown during stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). Observational data are used in chapter 2 to construct climatologies of the Arctic polar vortex structure during vortex-splitting and vortex-displacement SSWs occurring between 1958 and 2002. During vortex-splitting SSWs, polar vortex breakdown is shown to be typically independent of height (barotropic), whereas breakdown during vor...

  17. Effects of intense stratospheric ionisation events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, G.C.; McAfee, J.R.; Crutzen, P.J.

    1978-01-01

    High levels of ionising radiation in the Earth's stratosphere will lead to increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides and decreased concentrations of ozone. Changes in the surface environment will include an increased level, of biologically harmful UV radiation, caused by the ozone depletion, and a decreased level of visible solar radiation, due to the presence of major enhancements in the stratospheric concentration of nitrogen dioxide. These changes have been studied quantitatively, using the passage of the Solar System through a supernova remnant shell as an example. Some of the potential environmental changes are a substantial global cooling, abnormally dry conditions, a reduction in global photosynthesis and a large increase in the flux of atmospheric fixed nitrogen to the surface of the Earth. Such events might have been the cause of mass extinctions in the distant past. (Author)

  18. First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

    2010-09-01

    Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

  19. The major stratospheric final warming in 2016: dispersal of vortex air and termination of Arctic chemical ozone loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. L. Manney

    2016-12-01

    extensive mixing during and immediately after the split in mid-March; however, air in the resulting offspring vortices remained isolated until they disappeared. Although the offspring vortices in the lower stratosphere survived longer than those in the middle stratosphere, the rapid temperature increase and dispersal of chemically processed air caused active chlorine to quickly disappear. Furthermore, ozone-depleted air from the lower-stratospheric vortex core was rapidly mixed with ozone rich air from the vortex edge and midlatitudes during the split. The impact of the 2016 MFW on polar processing was the latest in a series of unexpected events that highlight the diversity of potential consequences of sudden warming events for Arctic ozone loss.

  20. Relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and the onset of stratospheric final warming in the northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jinggao; Li, Tim; Xu, Haiming

    2018-01-01

    The seasonal timing or onset date of the stratospheric final warming (SFWOD) events has a considerable interannual variability. This paper reports a statistically significant relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and SFWOD in the Northern Hemisphere in two sub-periods (1951-1978 and 1979-2015). Specifically, in the first (second) sub-period, the NPGO is negatively (positively) linked with SFWOD. Composite analyses associated with anomalous NPGO years are conducted to diagnose the dynamic processes of the NPGO-SFWOD link. During 1951-1978, positive NPGO years tend to strengthen the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern in the mid-troposphere in boreal winter. The strengthened PNA pattern in February leads to strong planetary wave activity in the extratropical stratosphere from late February to March and causes the early onset of SFW in early April. By contrast, a strengthened Western Pacific pattern from January to early February in negative NPGO years causes a burst of planetary waves in both the troposphere and extratropical stratosphere from late January to mid-February and results in more winter stratospheric sudden warming events, which, in turn, leads to a dormant spring and a late onset of SFW in late April. During 1979-2015, positive (negative) NPGO years strongly strengthen (weaken) the mid-tropospheric Aleutian low and the Western Pacific pattern from January to mid-March, leading to increased (decreased) planetary wavenumber-1 activity in the stratosphere from mid- to late winter and thus more (less) winter stratospheric sudden warming events and late (early) onsets of SFW in early May (mid-April).

  1. Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedatella, N. M.; Liu, H.-L.; Marsh, D. R.; Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Siddiqui, T. A.

    2018-04-01

    The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ˜10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ˜10-20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.

  2. Mesospheric signatures observed during 2010 minor stratospheric warming at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Hong, Junseok; Kim, Jeong-Han; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Chandran, A.; Rao, S. V. B.; Riggin, Dennis

    2016-03-01

    A minor stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. Among the three warming events, the signature of mesosphere response was detected only for the September event in the mesospheric wind dataset from both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W) and Rothera (68°S, 68°W), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW event, as has been observed in the 2002 major SSW. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with stratospheric warmings are found in temperatures measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Simulations of specified dynamics version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) are able to reproduce these observed features. The mesospheric wind field was found to differ significantly from that of normal years probably due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSW. From the wavelet analysis of wind data of both stations, we find that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere. Our study provides evidence that minor SSWs in SH can result in significant effects on the mesospheric dynamics as in the northern hemisphere.

  3. The global warming potential of methane reassessed with combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. D.; Archibald, A. T.; Eastham, S. D.; Søvde, O. A.

    2017-12-01

    Methane is a direct and indirect greenhouse gas. The direct greenhouse effect comes from the radiation absorbed and emitted by methane itself. The indirect greenhouse effect comes from radiatively active gases that are produced during methane oxidation: principally O3, H2O, and CO2. Methane also suppresses tropospheric OH, which indirectly affects numerous greenhouses gases and aerosols. Traditionally, the methane global warming potential (GWP) has included the indirect effects on tropospheric O3 and OH and stratospheric H2O, with these effects estimated independently from unrelated tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry models and observations. Using this approach the CH4 is about 28 over 100 yr (without carbon cycle feedbacks, IPCC, 2013). Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the CH4 GWP in several 3-D global atmospheric models capable of simulating both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem, Oslo CTM3, UKCA). This enables us to include, for the first time, the indirect effects of CH4 on stratospheric O3 and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. We diagnose the GWP from paired simulations with and without a 5% perturbation to tropospheric CH4 concentrations. Including stratospheric chemistry nearly doubles the O3 contribution to CH4 GWP because of O3 production in the lower stratosphere and because CH4 inhibits Cl-catalyzed O3 loss in the upper stratosphere. In addition, stratosphere-troposphere coupling strengthens the chemical feedback on its own lifetime. In the stratosphere, this feedback operates by a CH4 perturbation thickening the stratospheric O3 layer, which impedes UV-driven OH production in the troposphere and prolongs the CH4 lifetime. We also quantify the impact of CH4-derived H2O on the stratospheric HOx cycles but these effects are small. Combining all of the above, these models suggest that the 100-yr GWP of CH4 is over 33.5, a 20% increase over the latest IPCC assessment.

  4. Effects of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Identified in Midlatitude Mesospheric Rayleigh-Scatter Lidar Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sox, L.; Wickwar, V. B.; Fish, C. S.; Herron, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Mesospheric temperature anomalies associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) have been observed extensively in the polar regions. However, observations of these anomalies at midlatitudes are sparse. The very dense 11-year data set, collected between 1993-2004, with the Rayleigh-scatter lidar at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO; 41.7°N, 111.8°W) at the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences (CASS) on the campus of Utah State University (USU), has been carefully examined for such anomalies. The temperatures derived from these data extend over the mesosphere, from 45 to 90 km. During this period extensive data were acquired during seven major SSW events. In this work we aim to determine the characteristics of the midlatitude mesospheric temperatures during these seven major SSWs. To do this, comparisons were made between the temperature profiles on individual nights before, during, and after the SSW events and the corresponding derived climatological temperature profiles (31-day by 11-year average) for those nights. A consistent disturbance pattern was observed in the mesospheric temperatures during these SSWs. A distinct shift from the nominal winter temperature pattern to a pattern more characteristic of summer temperatures was seen in the midlatitude mesosphere close to when the zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (at 10 hPa, 60° N) reversed from eastward to westward. This shift lasted for several days. This change in pattern included coolings in the upper mesosphere, comparable to those seen in the polar regions, and warmings in the lower mesosphere.

  5. Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. H. Daffer

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM, and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results

  6. Extracting gravity wave parameters during the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere major sudden stratospheric warming using a SANAE imaging riometer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mbatha, N. [South African National Space Agency, Hermanus (South Africa). Space Science; KwaZulu-Natal Univ., Durban (South Africa). School of Chemistry and Physics; Sivakumar, V. [KwaZulu-Natal Univ., Durban (South Africa). School of Chemistry and Physics; Bencherif, H. [La Reunion Univ. UMR 8105 CNRS, Saint-Denis (France). Lab. de l' Atmosphere et des Cyclones; Malinga, S. [South African National Space Agency, Hermanus (South Africa). Space Science

    2013-11-01

    Using absorption data measured by imaging riometer for ionospheric studies (IRIS) located at the South Africa National Antarctic Expedition (SANAE), Antarctica (72 S, 3 W), we extracted the parameters of gravity waves (GW) of periods between 40 and 50 min during late winter/ spring of the year 2002, a period of the unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere middle atmosphere. During this period, an unprecedented substantial increase of temperature by about 25-30K throughout the stratosphere was observed. During the period of the occurrence of the major stratospheric warming, there was a reduction of both the GW horizontal phase speeds and the horizontal wavelengths at 90 km. The GW phase speeds and horizontal wavelengths were observed to reach minimum values of about 7ms{sup -1} and 19 km, respectively, while during the quiet period the average value of the phase speed and horizontal wavelength was approximately 23ms{sup -1} and 62 km, respectively. The observed event is discussed in terms of momentum flux and also a potential interaction of gravity waves, planetary waves and mean circulation.

  7. The Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013: Analyses and Forecasts in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Lawrence; Pawson, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We examine the major stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) that occurred on 6 January 2013, using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). Results show that the major SSW of January 2013 falls into the vortex splitting type of SSW, with the initial planetary wave breaking occurring near 10 hPa. The vertical flux of wave activity at the tropopause responsible for the SSW occurred mainly in the Pacific Hemisphere, including the a pulse associated with the preconditioning of the polar vortex by wave 1 identified on 23 December 2012. While most of the vertical wave activity flux was in the Pacific Hemisphere, a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28 December is shown to have produced a strong transient upward wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere coinciding with the peak of the SSW event. In addition, the GEOS-5 5-day forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013 as well as the upper tropospheric disturbances responsible for the warming. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere-troposphere interaction.

  8. Do minor sudden stratospheric warmings in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) impact coupling between stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) like major warmings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Liu, Huixin; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Lee, Jaewook

    2017-08-01

    We have investigated the coupling between the stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during 2010 minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Three episodic SSWs were noticed in 2010. Mesospheric zonal winds between 82 and 92 km obtained from King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) meteor radar showed the significant difference from usual trend. The zonal wind reversal in the mesosphere is noticed a week before the associated SSW similar to 2002 major SSW. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km is simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to 2002 major SSW.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  9. Coupling in the middle atmosphere related to the 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. de Wit

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The previously reported observation of anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing at mesopause heights around the onset of the January 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW over Trondheim, Norway (63° N, 10° E, is placed in a global perspective using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS temperature observations from the Aura satellite. It is shown that this anomalous forcing results in a clear cooling over Trondheim about 10 km below mesopause heights. Conversely, near the mesopause itself, where the gravity wave forcing was measured, observations with meteor radar, OH airglow and MLS show no distinct cooling. Polar cap zonal mean temperatures show a similar vertical profile. Longitudinal variability in the high northern-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT is characterized by a quasi-stationary wave-1 structure, which reverses phase at altitudes below ~ 0.1 hPa. This wave-1 develops prior to the SSW onset, and starts to propagate westward at the SSW onset. The latitudinal pole-to-pole temperature structure associated with the major SSW shows a warming (cooling in the winter stratosphere (mesosphere which extends to about 40° N. In the stratosphere, a cooling extending over the equator and far into the summer hemisphere is observed, whereas in the mesosphere an equatorial warming is noted. In the Southern Hemisphere mesosphere, a warm anomaly overlaying a cold anomaly is present, which is shown to propagate downward in time. This observed structure is in accordance with the temperature perturbations predicted by the proposed interhemispheric coupling mechanism for cases of increased winter stratospheric planetary wave activity, of which major SSWs are an extreme case. These results provide observational evidence for the interhemispheric coupling mechanism, and for the wave-mean flow interaction believed to be responsible for the establishment of the anomalies in the summer hemisphere.

  10. Polar-night O3, NO2 and NO3 distributions during sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 as seen by GOMOS/Envisat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kyrölä

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW are large-scale transient events, which have a profound effect on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation in winter. During the SSW events the temperature in stratosphere increases by several tens of Kelvins and zonal winds decelerate or reverse in direction. Changes in temperature and dynamics significantly affect the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere. In this paper, the response of the middle-atmosphere trace gases during several sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 is investigated using measurements from the GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument on board the Envisat satellite. We have analyzed spatial and temporal changes of NO2 and NO3 in the stratosphere, and of ozone in the whole middle atmosphere. To facilitate our analyses, we have used the temperature profiles data from the MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on board the Aura satellite, as well as simulations by the FinROSE chemistry-transport model and the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model (SIC. NO3 observations in the polar winter stratosphere during SSWs are reported for the first time. Changes in chemical composition are found not to be restricted to the stratosphere, but to extend to mesosphere and lower thermosphere. They often exhibit a complicated structure, because the distribution of trace gases is affected by changes in both chemistry and dynamics. The tertiary ozone maximum in the mesosphere often disappears with the onset of SSW, probably because of strong mixing processes. The strong horizontal mixing with outside-vortex air is well observed also in NO2 data, especially in cases of enhanced NO2 inside the polar vortex before SSW. Almost in all of the considered events, ozone near the secondary maximum decreases with onset of SSW. In both experimental data and FinROSE modelling, ozone changes are positively correlated with temperature changes in the lower stratosphere

  11. Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

    2018-05-01

    The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

  12. Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST

  13. Rayleigh lidar observations of enhanced stratopause temperature over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) during major stratospheric warming in 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.; Sathishkumar, S.; Raghunath, K.

    2009-01-01

    Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) during January-February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending) motions at high (low) latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.

  14. Rayleigh lidar observations of enhanced stratopause temperature over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during major stratospheric warming in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sridharan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during January–February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending motions at high (low latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.

  15. Rapid meridional transport of tropical airmasses to the Arctic during the major stratospheric warming in January 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kleinböhl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We present observations of unusually high values of ozone and N2O in the middle stratosphere that were observed by the airborne submillimeter radiometer ASUR in the Arctic. The observations took place in the meteorological situation of a major stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2003 and was dominated by a wave 2 event. On 23 January 2003 the observed N2O and O3 mixing ratios around 69° N in the middle stratosphere reached maximum values of ~190 ppb and ~10 ppm, respectively. The similarities of these N2O profiles in a potential temperature range between 800 and 1200 K with N2O observations around 20° N on 1 March 2003 by the same instrument suggest that the observed Arctic airmasses were transported from the tropics quasi-isentropically. This is confirmed by 5-day back trajectory calculations which indicate that the airmasses between about 800 and 1000 K had been located around 20° N 3–5 days prior to the measurement in the Arctic. Calculations with a linearized ozone chemistry model along calculated as well as idealized trajectories, initialized with the low-latitude ASUR ozone measurements, give reasonable agreement with the Arctic ozone measurement by ASUR. PV distributions suggest that these airmasses did not stay confined in the Arctic region which makes it unlikely that this dynamical situation lead to the formation of dynamically caused pockets of low ozone.

  16. Stratospheric warming influence on the mesosphere/lower thermosphere as seen by the extended CMAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Shepherd

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The response of the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region to major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW is examined employing temperature, winds, NOX and CO constituents from the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM with continuous incremental nudging below 10 hPa (~ 30 km. The model results considered cover high latitudes (60–85° N from 10 to 150 km height for the December–March period of 2003/2004, 2005/2006 and 2008/2009, when some of the strongest SSWs in recent years were observed. NOX and CO are used as proxies for examining transport. Comparisons with ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment–Fourier Transform Spectrometer satellite observations show that the model represents well the dynamics of the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region, the coupling of the stratosphere–mesosphere, and the NOX and CO transport. New information is obtained on the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere up to 150 km showing that the NOX volume mixing ratio in the 2003/2004 winter was very perturbed indicating transport from the lower atmosphere and intense mixing with large NOX influx from the thermosphere compared to 2006 and 2009. These results, together with those from other models and observations, clearly show the impact of stratospheric warmings on the thermosphere.

  17. Rayleigh LiDAR investigation of stratospheric sudden warming over a low latitude station, Gadanki (13.5ºN; 79.2ºE) – a statistical study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Charyulu, DV

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the authors report the statistical characteristics of Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) events observed over a low latitude station, Gadanki; 13.5°N, 79.2°E. The study uses 7 years (1998 to 2004) of quasi-continuous nighttime Li...

  18. 20-year LiDAR observations of stratospheric sudden warming over a mid-latitude site, Observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E): Case study and statistical characteristics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Charyulu, DV

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study delineates the characteristics of Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) events observed over the Observatoire de Haute Provence (OHP: 44°N, 6°E). The study uses 20 years of Rayleigh LiDAR temperature measurements for the 1982...

  19. The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.

    2011-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.

  20. Relationship between lunar tidal enhancements in the equatorial electrojet and tropospheric eddy heat flux during stratospheric sudden warmings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, T. A.; Yamazaki, Y.; Stolle, C.; Lühr, H.; Matzka, J.

    2017-12-01

    A number of studies in recent years have reported about the lunar tidal enhancements in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) from ground- and space-based magnetometer measurements during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events. In this study, we make use of the ground magnetometer recordings at Huancayo observatory in Peru for the years 1978 - 2013 to derive a relationship between the lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ and tropospheric eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa during the SSW events. Tropospheric eddy heat fluxes are used to quantify the amount of wave activity entering the stratosphere. Anomalously large upward wave activity is known to precede the polar vortex breakdown during SSWs. We make use of the superposed epoch analysis method to determine the temporal relations between lunar tidal enhancements and eddy heat flux anomalies during SSWs, in order to demonstrate the causal relationship between these two phenomena. We also compare the lunar tidal enhancements and eddy heat flux anomalies for vortex split and for vortex displaced SSWs. It is found that larger lunar tidal enhancements are recorded for vortex split events, as compared to vortex displaced events. This confirms earlier observation; larger heat flux anomalies are recorded during vortex split SSW events than the heat flux anomalies during vortex displaced SSW events. Further, the temporal relations of lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ have been compared separately for both the QBO phases and with the phases of the moon with respect to the central epoch of SSWs by means of the superposed epoch analysis approach. The EEJ lunar tidal enhancements in the east phase of QBO are found to be larger than the lunar tidal enhancements in the west phase of QBO. The phase of moon relative to the central SSW epoch also affects the lunar tidal enhancement in the EEJ. It is found that the lunar tidal enhancements are significantly larger when the day of new or full moon lies near the central SSW epoch, as compared

  1. Air mass exchange across the polar vortex edge during a simulated major stratospheric warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Günther

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the polar vortex in winter and spring play an important role in explaining observed low ozone values. A quantification of physical and chemical processes is necessary to obtain information about natural and anthropogenic causes of fluctuations of ozone. This paper aims to contribute to answering the question of how permeable the polar vortex is. The transport into and out of the vortex ("degree of isolation" remains the subject of considerable debate. Based on the results of a three-dimensional mechanistic model of the middle atmosphere, the possibility of exchange of air masses across the polar vortex edge is investigated. Additionally the horizontal and vertical structure of the polar vortex is examined. The model simulation used for this study is related to the major stratospheric warming observed in February 1989. The model results show fair agreement with observed features of the major warming of 1989. Complex structures of the simulated polar vortex are illustrated by horizontal and vertical cross sections of potential vorticity and inert tracer. A three-dimensional view of the polar vortex enables a description of the vortex as a whole. During the simulation two vortices and an anticyclone, grouped together in a very stable tripolar structure, and a weaker, more amorphous anticyclone are formed. This leads to the generation of small-scale features. The results also indicate that the permeability of the vortex edges is low because the interior of the vortices remain isolated during the simulation.

  2. Air mass exchange across the polar vortex edge during a simulated major stratospheric warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Günther

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of the polar vortex in winter and spring play an important role in explaining observed low ozone values. A quantification of physical and chemical processes is necessary to obtain information about natural and anthropogenic causes of fluctuations of ozone. This paper aims to contribute to answering the question of how permeable the polar vortex is. The transport into and out of the vortex ("degree of isolation" remains the subject of considerable debate. Based on the results of a three-dimensional mechanistic model of the middle atmosphere, the possibility of exchange of air masses across the polar vortex edge is investigated. Additionally the horizontal and vertical structure of the polar vortex is examined. The model simulation used for this study is related to the major stratospheric warming observed in February 1989. The model results show fair agreement with observed features of the major warming of 1989. Complex structures of the simulated polar vortex are illustrated by horizontal and vertical cross sections of potential vorticity and inert tracer. A three-dimensional view of the polar vortex enables a description of the vortex as a whole. During the simulation two vortices and an anticyclone, grouped together in a very stable tripolar structure, and a weaker, more amorphous anticyclone are formed. This leads to the generation of small-scale features. The results also indicate that the permeability of the vortex edges is low because the interior of the vortices remain isolated during the simulation.

  3. Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Steenrod, S. D.

    2016-01-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.

  4. The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland von Glasow

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

  5. Effect of Southern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Antarctica Mesospheric Tides: First Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Lee, Jaewook; Ratnam, M. Vankat; Rao, S. V. B.

    2018-03-01

    We analyzed the structure and variability of observed winds and tides in the Antarctica mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the 2002 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and the 2010 minor SSWs. We noted the effect of SSW on the variability of MLT tides for the first time in the Southern Hemisphere, although it has been well recognized in the Northern Hemisphere. We utilized the winds measured by Rothera (68°S, 68°W) medium frequency radar and King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) meteor radar for estimating the tidal components (diurnal, semi-diurnal, and ter-diurnal) in the MLT region. The unusual behavior of diurnal tide (DT) and semidiurnal tide (SDT) was observed in 2002. Zonal SDT amplitudes were enhanced up to 27 m/s after 18 days from the associated SSW day. However, the meridional tidal amplitudes of both DT and SDT suddenly decreased during the peak SSW, and SDT amplitudes slightly increased to 18 m/s afterward. In the normal years, SDT amplitude stays below 15 m/s. During the 2010 SSW, SDT zonal amplitudes increased up to 40 m/s and 50 m/s at altitudes of 80 km and 90 km, respectively, 30 days after the associated SSW. Similar but weaker effect is noticed in the meridional components. The ter-diurnal tide does not show any significant variation during the SSW. The two SSWs offered a challenging issue to answer: why tidal amplitudes are enhanced with a delay after the SSW. The reasons for the delay are discussed in accordance with theoretical predictions.

  6. Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gibbs, S.J.; Bown, P.R.; Murphy, B.H.; Sluijs, A.; Edgar, K.M.; Pälike, H.; Bolton, C.T.; Zachos, J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are

  7. Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, A. M.; Lin, M.; Cooper, O. R.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Levy, H.; Langford, A. O.; Johnson, B. J.; Oltmans, S. J.; Senff, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    As the National Ambient Air Quality (NAAQS) standard for ozone (O_{3}) is lowered, it pushes closer to policy-relevant background levels (O_{3} concentrations that would exist in the absence of North American anthropogenic emissions), making attainment more difficult with local controls. We quantify the Asian and stratospheric components of this North American background, with a primary focus on the western United States. Prior work has identified this region as a hotspot for deep stratospheric intrusions in spring. We conduct global simulations at 200 km and 50 km horizontal resolution with the GFDL AM3 model, including a stratospheric O_{3} tracer and two sensitivity simulations with anthropogenic emissions from Asia and North America turned off. The model is evaluated with a suite of in situ and satellite measurements during the NOAA CalNex campaign (May-June 2010). The model reproduces the principle features in the observed surface to near tropopause distribution of O_{3} along the California coast, including its latitudinal variation and the development of regional high-O_{3} episodes. Four deep tropopause folds are diagnosed and we find that the remnants of these stratospheric intrusions are transported to the surface of Southern California and Western U.S. Rocky Mountains, contributing 10-30 ppbv positive anomalies relative to the simulated campaign mean stratospheric component in the model surface layer. We further examine the contribution of North American background, including its stratospheric and Asian components, to the entire distribution of observed MDA8 O_{3} at 12 high-elevation CASTNet sites in the Mountain West. We find that the stratospheric O_{3} tracer constitutes 50% of the North American background, and can enhance surface maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O_{3} by 20 ppb when observed surface O_{3} is in the range of 60-80 ppbv. Our analysis highlights the potential for natural sources such as deep stratospheric intrusions to contribute

  8. Nonmigrating tidal activity related to the sudden stratospheric warming in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004

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    D. Pancheva

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the nonmigrating tidal activity seen in the SABER/TIMED temperatures that is related to the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW taking place in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004. The emphasis is on the nonmigrating diurnal tides observed in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere which is usually accepted to be insignificant in comparison with that in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere. By using different independent spectral methods we found a significant amplification in December–January of the following nonmigrating 24-h tides: zonally symmetric (s=0, eastward propagating with zonal wavenumber 1 (E1, and westward propagating with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 (W2 and W3 tides. It has been found that the double peak nonmigrating tidal amplifications located in the stratosphere (~40 km and in the lower mesosphere (~70 km are a consequence of the maintained hydrostatic relation. By detailed comparison of the evolution and spatial structure of the nonmigrating diurnal tides with those of the migrating diurnal tide and stationary planetary waves (SPWs evidence for a SPW-migrating tide interaction as a source of nonmigrating tides has been presented. Therefore, the nonmigrating 24-h tides turn out to be an important component of the middle atmosphere dynamics during the major SSW in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004.

  9. Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatzen, Christoph

    2013-04-01

    A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

  10. Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

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    P. Zanis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, was followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one descending to nearly 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent surface measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 7Be and their ratio 10Be/7Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures many details of the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October

  11. North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C.; Davies, Maureen H.; Wolhowe, Matthew D; Addison, Jason A.; Prahl, Frederick G

    2015-01-01

    Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition1, 2, 3, 4. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4–5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals12, 13, and enhanced 15N/14N ratio of organic matter13, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in 18O/16O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming.

  12. Stratospheric warmings - The quasi-biennial oscillation Ozone Hole in the Antarctic but not the Arctic - Correlations between the Solar Cycle, Polar Temperatures, and an Equatorial Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoppe, Ulf-Peter

    2010-05-15

    This report is a tutorial and overview over some of the complex dynamic phenomena in the polar and equatorial stratosphere, and the unexpected correlation that exists between these and the solar cycle. Sudden stratospheric warmings (stratwarms) occur in the polar stratosphere in winter, but not equally distributed between the two hemispheres. As a result, the ozone hole in the springtime polar stratosphere is much more severe in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a dynamic phenomenon of the equatorial stratosphere. Through processes not fully understood, the phase of the QBO (easterly or westerly) influences the onset of stratwarms. In addition, a correlation between the stratospheric winter temperature over the poles and the solar cycle has been found, but only if the datapoints are ordered by the phase of the QBO. - The best explanations and figures from four recent textbooks are selected, and abstracts of most relevant publications from the six last years are collected, with the most relevant portions for these subjects highlighted. - In addition to being basic science, the understanding of these phenomena is important in the context of the ozone hole, the greenhouse effect, as well as anthropogenic and natural climate change. (author)

  13. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  14. Stratospheric ozone intrusion events and their impacts on tropospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere

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    J. W. Greenslade

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT provides an important natural source of ozone to the upper troposphere, but the characteristics of STT events in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and their contribution to the regional tropospheric ozone budget remain poorly constrained. Here, we develop a quantitative method to identify STT events from ozonesonde profiles. Using this method we estimate the seasonality of STT events and quantify the ozone transported across the tropopause over Davis (69° S, 2006–2013, Macquarie Island (54° S, 2004–2013, and Melbourne (38° S, 2004–2013. STT seasonality is determined by two distinct methods: a Fourier bandpass filter of the vertical ozone profile and an analysis of the Brunt–Väisälä frequency. Using a bandpass filter on 7–9 years of ozone profiles from each site provides clear detection of STT events, with maximum occurrences during summer and minimum during winter for all three sites. The majority of tropospheric ozone enhancements owing to STT events occur within 2.5 and 3 km of the tropopause at Davis and Macquarie Island respectively. Events are more spread out at Melbourne, occurring frequently up to 6 km from the tropopause. The mean fraction of total tropospheric ozone attributed to STT during STT events is  ∼ 1. 0–3. 5 % at each site; however, during individual events, over 10 % of tropospheric ozone may be directly transported from the stratosphere. The cause of STTs is determined to be largely due to synoptic low-pressure frontal systems, determined using coincident ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological data. Ozone enhancements can also be caused by biomass burning plumes transported from Africa and South America, which are apparent during austral winter and spring and are determined using satellite measurements of CO. To provide regional context for the ozonesonde observations, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, which is too coarsely

  15. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak

  16. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mironova, I. A.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Petelina, S. V.

    2012-01-01

    Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III), and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS), we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak-moderate events. The present

  17. Mie lidar and radiosonde observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

    2011-03-01

    During a major sudden stratospheric warming event (21-27 January 2009), Mie-lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show persistent occurrence of cirrus clouds. Outgoing long-wave radiation averaged for 70°E-90°E, decreases to a low value (170 W/m2) on 27 January 2009 over equator indicating deep convection. The zonal mean ERA-Interim data reveal large northward and upward circulation over equatorial upper troposphere. The latitude-longitude map of ERA-Interim zonal mean potential vorticity (PV) indicates two tongues of high PV emanating from polar latitudes and extending further down to equator. Radiosonde observations at Gadanki show the presence of ∼40% relative humidity at 11-13 km and lower tropopause temperature. It is inferred that the tropical circulation change due to PV intrusion leads to deep convection, which along with high humidity and low tropopause temperature leading to the formation of persistent cirrus clouds, the occurrence frequency of which is normally less during winter season over Gadanki.

  18. Possible effect of strong solar energetic particle events on polar stratospheric aerosol: a summary of observational results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mironova, I A; Usoskin, I G

    2014-01-01

    This letter presents a summary of a phenomenological study of the response of the polar stratosphere to strong solar energetic particle (SEP) events corresponding to ground level enhancements (GLEs) of cosmic rays. This work is focused on evaluation of the possible influence of the atmospheric ionization caused by SEPs upon formation of aerosol particles in the stratosphere over polar regions. Following case studies of two major SEP/GLE events, in January 2005 and September 1989, and their possible effects on polar stratospheric aerosols, we present here the results of an analysis of variations of the daily profiles of the stratospheric aerosol parameters (aerosol extinction for different wavelengths, as well as Ångstrom exponent) for both polar hemispheres during SEP/GLE events of July 2000, April 2001 and October 2003, which form already five clear cases corresponding to extreme and strong SEP/GLE events. The obtained results suggest that an enhancement of ionization rate by a factor of about two in the polar region with night/cold/winter conditions can lead to the formation/growing of aerosol particles in the altitude range of 10–25 km. We also present a summary of the investigated effects based on the phenomenological study of the atmospheric application of extreme SEP events. (paper)

  19. Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Gibbs

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Late Paleocene and early Eocene hyperthermals are transient warming events associated with massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle, and are considered partial analogues for current anthropogenic climate change. Because the magnitude of carbon release varied between the events, they are natural experiments ideal for exploring the relationship between carbon cycle perturbations, climate change and biotic response. Here we quantify marine biotic variability through three million years of the early Eocene that include five hyperthermals, utilizing a method that allows us to integrate the records of different plankton groups through scenarios ranging from background to major extinction events. Our long time-series calcareous nannoplankton record indicates a scaling of biotic disruption to climate change associated with the amount of carbon released during the various hyperthermals. Critically, only the three largest hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2 and the I1 event, show above-background variance, suggesting that the magnitude of carbon input and associated climate change needs to surpass a threshold value to cause significant biotic disruption.

  20. Indirect global warming effects of ozone and stratospheric water vapor induced by surface methane emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Grossman, A.S.; Tamaresis, J.S.; Patten, K.O. Jr.; Jain, A.; Grant, K.A.

    1994-07-01

    Methane has indirect effects on climate due to chemical interactions as well as direct radiative forcing effects as a greenhouse gas. We have calculated the indirect, time-varying tropospheric radiative forcing and GWP of O 3 and stratospheric H 2 O due to an impulse of CH 4 . This impulse, applied to the lowest layer of the atmosphere, is the increase of the atmospheric mass of CH 4 resulting from a 25 percent steady state increase in the current emissions as a function of latitude. The direct CH 4 radiative forcing and GWP are also calculated. The LLNL 2-D radiative-chemistry-transport model is used to evaluate the resulting changes in the O 3 , H 2 O and CH 4 atmospheric profiles as a function of time. A correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model is used to calculate the radiative forcing at the tropopause of the globally-averaged atmosphere profiles. The O 3 indirect GWPs vary from ∼27 after a 20 yr integration to ∼4 after 500 years, agreeing with the previous estimates to within about 10 percent. The H 2 O indirect GWPs vary from ∼2 after a 20 yr integration to ∼0.3 after 500 years, and are in close agreement with other estimates. The CH 4 GWPs vary from ∼53 at 20 yrs to ∼7 at 500 yrs. The 20 year CH 4 GWP is ∼20% larger than previous estimates of the direct CH 4 GWP due to a CH 4 response time (∼17 yrs) that is much longer than the overall lifetime (10 yrs). The increased CH 4 response time results from changes in the OH abundances caused by the CH 4 impulse. The CH 4 radiative forcing results are consistent with IPCC values. Estimates are made of latitude effects in the radiative forcing calculations, and UV effects on the O 3 radiative forcing calculations (10%)

  1. Regional stratospheric warmings in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector during winter 2004/2005: implications for temperatures, winds, chemical constituents and the characterization of the Polar vortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Manson

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The vortex during winter 2004/2005 was interesting for several reasons. It has been described as "cold" stratospherically, with relatively strong westerly winds. Losses of ozone until the final warming in March were considerable, and comparable to the cold 1999–2000 winter. There were also modest warming events, indicated by peaks in 10 hPa zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes, near 1 January and 1 February. Events associated with a significant regional stratospheric warming in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector then began and peaked toward the end of February, providing strong longitudinal variations in dynamical characteristics (Chshyolkova et al., 2007; hereafter C07. The associated disturbed vortex of 25 February was displaced from the pole and either elongated (upper or split into two cyclonic centres (lower.

    Observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on Aura are used here to study the thermal characteristics of the stratosphere in the Canadian-US (253° E and Scandinavian-Europe (16° E sectors. Undisturbed high latitude stratopause (55 km zonal mean temperatures during the mid-winter (December–February reached 270 K, warmer than empirical-models such as CIRA-86, suggesting that seasonal polar warming due to dynamical influences affects the high altitude stratosphere as well as the mesosphere. There were also significant stratopause differences between Scandinavia and Canada during the warming events of 1 January and 1 February, with higher temperatures near 275 K at 16° E. During the 25 February "PWC" event a warming occurred at low and middle stratospheric heights (10–30 km: 220 K at 253° E and the stratopause cooled; while over Scandinavia-Europe the stratosphere below ~30 km was relatively cold at 195 K and the stratopause became even warmer (>295 K and lower (~45 km. The zonal winds followed the associated temperature gradients so that the vertical and latitudinal gradients of the winds differed strongly

  2. Regional stratospheric warmings in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector during winter 2004/2005: implications for temperatures, winds, chemical constituents and the characterization of the Polar vortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Manson

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The vortex during winter 2004/2005 was interesting for several reasons. It has been described as "cold" stratospherically, with relatively strong westerly winds. Losses of ozone until the final warming in March were considerable, and comparable to the cold 1999–2000 winter. There were also modest warming events, indicated by peaks in 10 hPa zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes, near 1 January and 1 February. Events associated with a significant regional stratospheric warming in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector then began and peaked toward the end of February, providing strong longitudinal variations in dynamical characteristics (Chshyolkova et al., 2007; hereafter C07. The associated disturbed vortex of 25 February was displaced from the pole and either elongated (upper or split into two cyclonic centres (lower. Observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on Aura are used here to study the thermal characteristics of the stratosphere in the Canadian-US (253° E and Scandinavian-Europe (16° E sectors. Undisturbed high latitude stratopause (55 km zonal mean temperatures during the mid-winter (December–February reached 270 K, warmer than empirical-models such as CIRA-86, suggesting that seasonal polar warming due to dynamical influences affects the high altitude stratosphere as well as the mesosphere. There were also significant stratopause differences between Scandinavia and Canada during the warming events of 1 January and 1 February, with higher temperatures near 275 K at 16° E. During the 25 February "PWC" event a warming occurred at low and middle stratospheric heights (10–30 km: 220 K at 253° E and the stratopause cooled; while over Scandinavia-Europe the stratosphere below ~30 km was relatively cold at 195 K and the stratopause became even warmer (>295 K and lower (~45 km. The zonal winds followed the associated temperature gradients so that the vertical and latitudinal gradients of the winds differed strongly between

  3. The response of Antarctica MLT region for the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over Southern Hemisphere (SH): An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Kim, J. H.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Riggin, D. M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

    2017-12-01

    A minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during the September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. The signature of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) response was detected using the ground based and space borne observations along with the model predictions. The changes in the mesosphere wind field were studied from the observations of both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) and Rothera (68oS, 68oW), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW occurrence. We have also analyzed the MLT tides using both the radars and noticed strong enhancement of semi-diurnal tide (SDT) a few days later the cessation of 2010 SSW. We note the similar enhancement during the 2002 major SSW. Specifically, the SDT amplitude enhancement is greater for the 2010 SSW than 2002 SSW. We found that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the 2010 minor SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere by generating the quasi-secondary waves of periodicity 3-9 days. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km are simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to the 2002 major SSW.

  4. Transport of mesospheric H2O during and after the stratospheric sudden warming of January 2010: observation and simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Smith

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The transportable ground based microwave radiometer MIAWARA-C monitored the upper stratospheric and lower mesospheric (USLM water vapor distribution over Sodankylä, Finland (67.4° N, 26.6° E from January to June 2010. At the end of January, approximately 2 weeks after MIAWARA-C's start of operation in Finland, a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW disturbed the circulation of the middle atmosphere. Shortly after the onset of the SSW water vapor rapidly increased at pressures between 1 and 0.01 hPa. Backward trajectory calculations show that this strong increase is due to the breakdown of the polar vortex and meridional advection of subtropical air to the Arctic USLM region. In addition, mesospheric upwelling in the course of the SSW led to an increase in observed water vapor between 0.1 and 0.03 hPa. After the SSW MIAWARA-C observed a decrease in mesospheric water vapor volume mixing ratio (VMR due to the subsidence of H2O poor air masses in the polar region. Backward trajectory analysis and the zonal mean water vapor distribution from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite (Aura/MLS indicate the occurrence of two regimes of circulation from 50° N to the North Pole: (1 regime of enhanced meridional mixing throughout February and (2 regime of an eastward circulation in the USLM region reestablished between early March and the equinox. The polar descent rate determined from MIAWARA-C's 5.2 parts per million volume (ppmv isopleth is 350 ± 40 m d−1 in the pressure range 0.6 to 0.06 hPa between early February and early March. For the same time interval the descent rate in the same pressure range was determined using Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM wind fields simulated by means of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Specified Dynamics (SD-WACCM. The average value of the SD-WACCM TEM vertical wind is 325 m d−1 while the along trajectory vertical displacement is 335 m d−1. The similar descent rates found indicate good

  5. MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, C I; Schwartz, C

    2017-10-16

    The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

  6. The spring 2011 final stratospheric warming above Eureka: anomalous dynamics and chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Adams

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In spring 2011, the Arctic polar vortex was stronger than in any other year on record. As the polar vortex started to break up in April, ozone and NO2 columns were measured with UV-visible spectrometers above the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL in Eureka, Canada (80.05° N, 86.42° W using the differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS technique. These ground-based column measurements were complemented by Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Optical Spectrograph and Infra-Red Imager System (OSIRIS satellite measurements, Global Modeling Initiative (GMI simulations, and meteorological quantities. On 8 April 2011, NO2 columns above PEARL from the DOAS, OMI, and GMI datasets were approximately twice as large as in previous years. On this day, temperatures and ozone volume mixing ratios above Eureka were high, suggesting enhanced chemical production of NO2 from NO. Additionally, GMI NOx (NO + NO2 and N2O fields suggest that downward transport along the vortex edge and horizontal transport from lower latitudes also contributed to the enhanced NO2. The anticyclone that transported lower-latitude NOx above PEARL became frozen-in and persisted in dynamical and GMI N2O fields until the end of the measurement period on 31 May 2011. Ozone isolated within this frozen-in anticyclone (FrIAC in the middle stratosphere was lost due to reactions with the enhanced NOx. Below the FrIAC (from the tropopause to 700 K, NOx driven ozone loss above Eureka was larger than in previous years, according to GMI monthly average ozone loss rates. Using the passive tracer technique, with passive ozone profiles from the Lagrangian Chemistry and Transport Model, ATLAS, ozone losses since 1 December 2010 were calculated at 600 K. In the air mass that was above Eureka on 20 May 2011, ozone losses reached 4.2 parts per million by

  7. Observations of middle atmospheric H2O and O3 during the 2010 major sudden stratospheric warming by a network of microwave radiometers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kämpfer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present middle atmospheric water vapor (H2O and ozone (O3 measurements obtained by ground-based microwave radiometers at three European locations in Bern (47° N, Onsala (57° N and Sodankylä (67° N during Northern winter 2009/2010. In January 2010, a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurred in the Northern Hemisphere whose signatures are evident in the ground-based observations of H2O and O3. The observed anomalies in H2O and O3 are mostly explained by the relative location of the polar vortex with respect to the measurement locations. The SSW started on 26 January 2010 and was most pronounced by the end of January. The zonal mean temperature in the middle stratosphere (10 hPa increased by approximately 25 Kelvin within a few days. The stratospheric vortex weakened during the SSW and shifted towards Europe. In the mesosphere, the vortex broke down, which lead to large scale mixing of polar and midlatitudinal air. After the warming, the polar vortex in the stratosphere split into two weaker vortices and in the mesosphere, a new, pole-centered vortex formed with maximum wind speed of 70 m s−1 at approximately 40° N. The shift of the stratospheric vortex towards Europe was observed in Bern as an increase in stratospheric H2O and a decrease in O3. The breakdown of the mesospheric vortex during the SSW was observed at Onsala and Sodankylä as a sudden increase in mesospheric H2O. The following large-scale descent inside the newly formed mesospheric vortex was well captured by the H2O observations in Sodankylä. In order to combine the H2O observations from the three different locations, we applied the trajectory mapping technique on our H2O observations to derive synoptic scale maps of the H2O distribution. Based on our observations and the 3-D wind field, this method allows determining the approximate development of the stratospheric and mesospheric polar vortex and demonstrates the potential of a network of ground

  8. Analysis of warm convective rain events in Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballart, D.; Figuerola, F.; Aran, M.; Rigo, T.

    2009-09-01

    steep slopes. These factors increase the number of flash floods and the risk indexes. In the present study it is showed the general characteristics of the warm rain events observed in Catalonia, using meteorological, pluviometric, thermodynamic, and remote sensing data. Beside this, other heavy rain events with different features have been analyzed with the purpose of identify the main differences and to improve the knowledge in order to provide enough information for surveillance tasks

  9. Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

    2013-01-01

    Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

  10. Statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warming as observed over the observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E) during the 1981-2001 period

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sivakumar, V

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available of stratospheric sudden warming as observed over the Observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E) during the period 1981-2001 D.V. Acharyulu, V. Sivakumar*, H. Bencherif, B. Morel, Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), CNRS–UMR 8105, Université de... La Réunion, FRANCE. * Also at National Laser Centre, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, SOUTH AFRICA. A. Hauchecorne Service d’Aéronomie, CNRS, Paris, FRANCE. D.N. Rao National Atmosphere Research Laboratory...

  11. Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences--an ongoing science and policy success story.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Stephen O; Halberstadt, Marcel L; Borgford-Parnell, Nathan

    2013-06-01

    In 1974, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland warned that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. In the decade after scientists documented the buildup and long lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere; found the proof that CFCs chemically decomposed in the stratosphere and catalyzed the depletion of ozone; quantified the adverse effects; and motivated the public and policymakers to take action. In 1987, 24 nations plus the European Community signed the Montreal Protocol. Today, 25 years after the Montreal Protocol was agreed, every United Nations state is a party (universal ratification of 196 governments); all parties are in compliance with the stringent controls; 98% of almost 100 ozone-depleting chemicals have been phased out worldwide; and the stratospheric ozone layer is on its way to recovery by 2065. A growing coalition of nations supports using the Montreal Protocol to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which are ozone safe but potent greenhouse gases. Without rigorous science and international consensus, emissions of CFCs and related ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) could have destroyed up to two-thirds of the ozone layer by 2065, increasing the risk of causing millions of cancer cases and the potential loss of half of global agricultural production. Furthermore, because most, ODSs are also greenhouse gases, CFCs and related ODSs could have had the effect of the equivalent of 24-76 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide. This critical review describes the history of the science of stratospheric ozone depletion, summarizes the evolution of control measures and compliance under the Montreal Protocol and national legislation, presents a review of six separate transformations over the last 100 years in refrigeration and air conditioning (A/C) technology, and illustrates government-industry cooperation in continually improving the environmental performance of motor vehicle A/C.

  12. Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences-An ongoing science and policy success story.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Stephen O; Halberstadt, Marcel L; Borgford-Parnell, Nathan

    2013-06-01

    In 1974, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland warned that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. In the decade after, scientists documented the buildup and long lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere; found the proof that CFCs chemically decomposed in the stratosphere and catalyzed the depletion of ozone; quantified the adverse effects; and motivated the public and policymakers to take action. In 1987, 24 nations plus the European Community signed the Montreal Protocol. Today, 25 years after the Montreal Protocol was agreed, every United Nations state is a party (universal ratification of 196 governments); all parties are in compliance with the stringent controls; 98% of almost 100 ozone-depleting chemicals have been phased out worldwide; and the stratospheric ozone layer is on its way to recovery by 2065. A growing coalition of nations supports using the Montreal Protocol to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, which are ozone safe but potent greenhouse gases. Without rigorous science and international consensus, emissions of CFCs and related ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) could have destroyed up to two-thirds of the ozone layer by 2065, increasing the risk of causing millions of cancer cases and the potential loss of half of global agricultural production. Furthermore, because most ODSs are also greenhouse gases, CFCs and related ODSs could have had the effect of the equivalent of 24-76 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide. This critical review describes the history of the science of stratospheric ozone depletion, summarizes the evolution of control measures and compliance under the Montreal Protocol and national legislation, presents a review of six separate transformations over the last 100 years in refrigeration and air conditioning (A/C) technology, and illustrates government-industry cooperation in continually improving the environmental performance of motor vehicle A/C. [Box

  13. Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

    2010-10-01

    Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more

  14. MLS measurements of stratospheric hydrogen cyanide during the 2015-2016 El Niño event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pumphrey, Hugh C.; Glatthor, Norbert; Bernath, Peter F.; Boone, Christopher D.; Hannigan, James W.; Ortega, Ivan; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Read, William G.

    2018-01-01

    It is known from ground-based measurements made during the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Niño events that atmospheric hydrogen cyanide (HCN) tends to be higher during such years than at other times. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite has been measuring HCN mixing ratios since launch in 2004; the measurements are ongoing at the time of writing. The winter of 2015-2016 saw the largest El Niño event since 1997-1998. We present MLS measurements of HCN in the lower stratosphere for the Aura mission to date, comparing the 2015-2016 El Niño period to the rest of the mission. HCN in 2015-2016 is higher than at any other time during the mission, but ground-based measurements suggest that it may have been even more elevated in 1997-1998. As the MLS HCN data are essentially unvalidated, we show them alongside data from the MIPAS and ACE-FTS instruments; the three instruments agree reasonably well in the tropical lower stratosphere. Global HCN emissions calculated from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED v4.1) database are much greater during large El Niño events and are greater in 1997-1998 than in 2015-2016, thereby showing good qualitative agreement with the measurements. Correlation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, measured HCN, and GFED HCN emissions is less clear if the 2015-2016 event is excluded. In particular, the 2009-2010 winter had fairly strong El Niño conditions and fairly large GFED HCN emissions, but very little effect is observed in the MLS HCN.

  15. Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances Observed During Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Equinox and Solstice Periods with Kharkiv and Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Radars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncharenko, L. P.; Panasenko, S.; Aksonova, K.; Erickson, P. J.; Domnin, I. F.

    2016-12-01

    Travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) play a key role in the coupling of different ionospheric regions through momentum an energy transfer. They are thought to be mostly associated with atmospheric gravity waves and are known to strongly affect radio propagation conditions. The incoherent scatter (IS) method enables TIDs detection in such ionospheric parameters as electron density, ion and electron temperatures, and plasma velocity along radar beam, thus providing critical information needed to examine different hypothesis about association of TIDs with their sources. In 2016, several joint measuring campaigns were conducted using Kharkiv (49.6 N, 36.4 E) and Millstone Hill (42.6 N, 288.5 E) IS radars. These campaigns covered the periods of sudden stratospheric warnings (SSW) in February, vernal equinox and summer solstice. For consistency, the data acquired by radars were processed using the same data analysis methods. The results obtained show the TIDs to be detected throughout all observation intervals in February measurements. The differences found in the behavior of TIDs over Kharkiv and Millstone Hill sites may be partially explained by variations in stratospheric wind velocity vectors during SSW period. As for March equinox and June solstice, the prevailing TIDs are observed near solar terminators. Their periods vary mostly in the range of 40 - 80 minutes, relative amplitudes are about 0.05 - 0.3 of the background electron density, and the maximum values are observed at the heights of 200 - 250 km. Systematic long-term observations of wave processes in the ionosphere with multiple IS facilities can reveal interhemispheric variability in TID parameters, give better understanding the mechanisms of TID generation and propagation, and improve regional and global ionospheric models.

  16. On el nino, el viejo events and global warming in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camerlengo, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Temperature, pressure and rainfall anomalies caused by the 1982-83, the 1986-87, the 1991-92 ENSO events; the 1975 and 1988 El Viejo events in Malaysia are studied. The results of this study show that opposite anomalies in these three fields are recorded during the ENSO and the El Viejo events in Malaysia. Furthermore, inter annual variability plays as a significant role as ENSO events in Peninsular Malaysia. Increase of temperature observed during the 1988 El Viejo event should solely be attributed to global warming. (author)

  17. Elimination of two reef-building hydrocorals following the 1982-83 El Nino warming event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glynn, P W; De Weerdt, W H [University of Miami, Miami, FL (USA). Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Division of Marine Biology and Fisheries

    1991-07-05

    One probable extinction and one range reduction of eastern Pacific reef-building hydrocoral ({ital Millepora}) species mark the first documented cases of species eliminations resulting from the worldwide 1980s coral reef bleaching events. Two of 12 Panamanian coral species were eliminated suddenly from their former ranges by prolonged high sea temperatures during the 1982-83 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event. Three conditions contributed to their demise: high sensitivity to sea warming, populations confined to a small geographic area, and bathymetric restriction to the euphotic zone ({le}20 meters depth) where El Nino sea warming had its greatest effect.

  18. Palaeoceanographic and biotic response during early Eocene extreme global warming events. Geologica Ultraiectina (328)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stap, H.L.

    2010-01-01

    Studying past intervals of abrupt global warming and massive carbon release can improve our knowledge in ways relevant to understanding future climate change. Possible paleo-analogues for future climate change are the early Paleogene hyperthermal events, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

  19. Mechanism for the recent ocean warming events on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brickman, D.; Hebert, D.; Wang, Z.

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, 2014, and 2015 anomalous warm events were observed in the subsurface waters in the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. Monthly output from a high resolution numerical ocean model simulation of the North Atlantic ocean for the period 1990-2015 is used to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the model shows skill in simulating the anomaly fields derived from various sources of data, and the observed warming trend over the last decade. From analysis of the model run it is found that the anomalies originate from the interaction between the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current at the tail of the Grand Banks (south of Newfoundland). This interaction results in the creation of anomalous warm/salty (or cold/fresh) eddies that travel east-to-west along the shelfbreak. These anomalies penetrate into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, onto the Scotian Shelf, and into the Gulf of Maine via deep channels along the shelfbreak. The observed warming trend can be attributed to an increase in the frequency of creation of warm anomalies during the last decade. Strong anomalous events are commonly observed in the data and model, and thus should be considered as part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.

  20. A consistent definition of the Arctic polar vortex breakup in both the lower and upper stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, W.; Seo, J.

    2014-12-01

    Breakup of the polar vortex is a dominant feature of the seasonal transition from winter to summer in the stratosphere, which significantly affects stratospheric O3 concentration and tropospheric weather. Previously several criteria for the vortex breakup have been suggested based on the potential vorticity (PV) and wind speed, however, those mainly have focused on the lower stratospheric vortex of which spatiotemporal evolution and decay are more continuous than those of the upper stratospheric vortex. To find a consistent criterion for the vortex breakup in both the lower and upper stratosphere, the present study defined a polar vortex breakup day as when PV gradient at the polar vortex edge becomes lower than that at the subtropical edge on the area equivalent latitude based on PV. With applying the new definition to the UK Met Office reanalysis data, the breakup days of the Arctic polar vortices on 18 isentropic levels from 450 K to 1300 K were calculated for the period of 1993-2005. In comparison with CH4, N2O and O3 measured by the ILAS and POAM II/III satellite instruments, the breakup days are well consistent with changes in the distribution of such tracers as well as their zonal standard deviations associated with the vortex structure breaking and irreversible mixing. The vortex breakup in the upper stratosphere occurs more or less a month prior to that in the middle and lower stratosphere while the stratospheric final warming events occurs simultaneously in the upper and lower stratosphere.

  1. Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Hanin; Boettcher, Maxi; Grams, Christian M.; Joos, Hanna; Pfahl, Stephan; Wernli, Heini

    2017-12-01

    At the turn of the years 2015/2016, maximum surface temperature in the Arctic reached record-high values, exceeding the melting point, which led to a strong reduction of the Arctic sea ice extent in the middle of the cold season. Here we show, using a Lagrangian method, that a combination of very different airstreams contributed to this event: (i) warm low-level air of subtropical origin, (ii) initially cold low-level air of polar origin heated by surface fluxes, and (iii) strongly descending air heated by adiabatic compression. The poleward transport of these warm airstreams occurred along an intense low-level jet between a series of cyclones and a quasi-stationary anticyclone. The complex 3-D configuration that enabled this transport was facilitated by continuous warm conveyor belt ascent into the upper part of the anticyclone. This study emphasizes the combined role of multiple transport processes and transient synoptic-scale dynamics for establishing an extreme Arctic warm event.

  2. Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  3. Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2017-05-09

    Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

  4. Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warming of 2009 on the Equatorial and Low-Latitude Ionosphere of the Indian Longitudes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Sneha; Pant, Tarun K.; Choudhary, R. K.; Vineeth, C.; Sunda, Surendra; Kumar, K. K.; Shreedevi, P. R.; Mukherjee, S.

    2017-10-01

    Using the equatorial electrojet (EEJ)-induced surface magnetic field and total electron content (TEC) measurements, we investigated the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) of January 2009 on the equatorial electrodynamics and low-latitude ionosphere over the Indian longitudes. Results indicate that the intensity of EEJ and the TEC over low latitudes (extending up to 30°N) exhibit significant perturbations during and after the SSW peak. One of the interesting features is the deviation of EEJ and TEC from the normal quiet time behavior well before the onset of the SSW. This is found to coincide with the beginning of enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity over high latitudes. The substantial amplification of the semidiurnal perturbation after the SSW peak is seen to be coinciding with the onset of new and full moons. The response of TEC to SSW is found to be latitude dependent as the near-equatorial (NE) stations show the semidiurnal perturbation only after the SSW peak. Another notable feature is the presence of reduced ionization in the night sector over the NE and low-latitude regions, appearing as an "ionization hole," well after the SSW peak. The investigation revealed the existence of a quasi 16 day wave in the TEC over low latitudes similar to the one present in the EEJ strength. These results have been discussed in the light of changes in the dynamical background because of enhanced PW activity during SSW, which creates favorable conditions for the amplification of lunar tides, and their subsequent interaction with the lower thermospheric tidal fields.

  5. Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

    2010-05-28

    The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

  6. Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenshi Hibino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

  7. Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2011-01-01

    Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

  8. Community impacts of mid-May frost event during an anomalously warm spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufkens, K.; Sonnentag, O.; Keenan, T. F.; Richardson, A. D.; Melaas, E. K.; Bailey, A.; O'Keefe, J.; Friedl, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Global land and ocean surface temperatures of 2010 have gone on record as one of the warmest of the last 131 years. In the northeastern US extraordinarily warm spring temperatures were recorded, averaging +3 °C above the long term mean, causing very early leaf development. However, the entire northeastern US region was hit by a severe frost event. Leveraging the coincidence of an anomalously warm spring and a late spring frost event we assess species specific responses of these combined extremes for three northern hardwood species(sugar maple, American beech, yellow birch) across an elevational gradient. We integrated ground observations with satellite and near-surface remote sensing data to address the following questions: 1) How did different species respond to a gradient in altitude / freezing temperatures? 2) How does phenological strategy influence this response? 3) To what extent were regional effects measurable? 4) How did the late spring frost event alter the carbon balance of a northern hardwood forest? 5) Finally, what changes do we foresee in community ecology? Our results show an early onset for all species, triggered by the anomalously warm spring. However, the three species responded differently to a late spring frost event. Where both yellow birch and American beech remained largely unaffected by frost, by comparison, sugar maple showed severe frost damage with increasing altitude resulting in leaf loss and delayed canopy development. Conservative estimates of gross carbon exchange losses due to the frost event ranged from 63 g C m-2 to 156 g C m-2, or ~5% to ~13 % of the annual gross carbon exchange of a northern hardwood forest. Our results suggest that the additional pressure on forest succession at high altitude range margins due to late spring frost events may provide a competitive advantage for yellow birch and American beech, at the expense of sugar maple. Consequently, a late spring frost does not only affect the short term carbon balance

  9. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrenko, Vasilii V; Smith, Andrew M; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P

    2017-08-23

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ( 14 CH 4 ) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

  10. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Smith, Andrew M.; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    2017-08-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today’s natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

  11. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  12. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J.

    2013-01-01

    octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme...... winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering...... events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas...

  13. The 8th-10 th January 2009 snowfalls: a case of Mediterranean warm advection event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguado, F.; Ayensa, E.; Barriga, M.; Del Hoyo, J.; Fernández, A.; Garrido, N.; Martín, A.; Martín, F.; Roa, I. Martínez, A.; Pascual, R.

    2009-09-01

    From 8 th to 10 th of January 2009, significant snowfalls were reported in many areas of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. This relevant event was very important from the meteorological and social impact point of views. The snow affected many zones, especially the regions of Madrid, Castilla & León and Castilla-La Mancha (Spanish central plateau) with the persistence and thickness of solid precipitation. Up to twenty-five centimetres of snow were reported in some places. On 9th of January the snowfalls caused great social and media impact due to the fact that they took place in the early hours in the Madrid metropolitan areas, affecting both air traffic and land transport. The "Madrid-Barajas" airport was closed and the city was collapsed during several hours. A study of this situation appears in the poster. The snowstorm was characterized by the previous irruption of an European continental polar air mass, that subsequently interacted with a wet and warm air mass of Mediterranean origin, all preceded by low level easterly flows. This type of snowfall is called "warm advection". These winter situations are very efficient from precipitation point of view, generating significant snowfalls and affecting a lot of areas.

  14. The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.

    2003-01-01

    The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.

  15. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  16. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering

    KAUST Repository

    Robock, Alan; Marquardt, Allison; Kravitz, Ben; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-01-01

    Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers

  17. Stratospheric aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, J.; Ivanov, V.A.

    1993-01-01

    Stratospheric aerosol measurements can provide both spatial and temporal data of sufficient resolution to be of use in climate models. Relatively recent results from a wide range of instrument techniques for measuring stratospheric aerosol parameters are described. Such techniques include impactor sampling, lidar system sensing, filter sampling, photoelectric particle counting, satellite extinction-sensing using the sun as a source, and optical depth probing, at sites mainly removed from tropospheric aerosol sources. Some of these techniques have also had correlative and intercomparison studies. The main methods for determining the vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosols are outlined: lidar extinction measurements from satellites; impactor measurements from balloons and aircraft; and photoelectric particle counter measurements from balloons, aircraft, and rockets. The conversion of the lidar backscatter to stratospheric aerosol mass loading is referred to. Absolute measurements of total solar extinction from satellite orbits can be used to extract the aerosol extinction, and several examples of vertical profiles of extinction obtained with the SAGE satellite are given. Stratospheric mass loading can be inferred from extinction using approximate linear relationships but under restrictive conditions. Impactor sampling is essentially the only method in which the physical nature of the stratospheric aerosol is observed visually. Vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosol number concentration using impactor data are presented. Typical profiles using a dual-size-range photoelectric dustsonde particle counter are given for volcanically disturbed and inactive periods. Some measurements of the global distribution of stratospheric aerosols are also presented. Volatility measurements are described, indicating that stratospheric aerosols are composed primarily of about 75% sulfuric acid and 25% water

  18. Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-08

    The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.

  19. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robock, Alan [Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States)

    2015-03-30

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.

  20. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robock, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming

  1. Atmospheric pCO2 reconstructed across five early Eocene global warming events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Ying; Schubert, Brian A.

    2017-11-01

    Multiple short-lived global warming events, known as hyperthermals, occurred during the early Eocene (56-52 Ma). Five of these events - the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM or ETM1), H1 (or ETM2), H2, I1, and I2 - are marked by a carbon isotope excursion (CIE) within both marine and terrestrial sediments. The magnitude of CIE, which is a function of the amount and isotopic composition of carbon added to the ocean-atmosphere system, varies significantly between marine versus terrestrial substrates. Here we use the increase in carbon isotope fractionation by C3 land plants in response to increased pCO2 to reconcile this difference and reconstruct a range of background pCO2 and peak pCO2 for each CIE, provided two potential carbon sources: methane hydrate destabilization and permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation. Although the uncertainty on each pCO2 estimate using this approach is low (e.g., median uncertainty = + 23% / - 18%), this work highlights the potential for significant systematic bias in the pCO2 estimate resulting from sampling resolution, substrate type, diagenesis, and environmental change. Careful consideration of each of these factors is required especially when applying this approach to a single marine-terrestrial CIE pair. Given these limitations, we provide an upper estimate for background early Eocene pCO2 of 463 +248/-131 ppmv (methane hydrate scenario) to 806 +127/-104 ppmv (permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation scenario). These results, which represent the first pCO2 proxy estimates directly tied to the Eocene hyperthermals, demonstrate that early Eocene warmth was supported by background pCO2 less than ∼3.5× preindustrial levels and that pCO2 > 1000 ppmv may have occurred only briefly, during hyperthermal events.

  2. Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Regional Climate: Extreme Events, Stagnation, and the United States Warming Hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, Nora R.

    Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The

  3. Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauretano, V.

    2016-01-01

    The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

  4. Extreme winter warming events more negatively impact small rather than large soil fauna: shift in community composition explained by traits not taxa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.

    2012-01-01

    Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate

  5. The Use of Red Green Blue Air Mass Imagery to Investigate the Role of Stratospheric Air in a Non-convective Wind Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.; Molthan, A. L.

    2013-01-01

    Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

  6. Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

  7. Lightning Location System Data from Wind Power Plants Compared to Meteorological Conditions of Warm- and Cold Thunderstorm Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogel, Stephan; Lopez, Javier; Garolera, Anna Candela

    2016-01-01

    of topography, height above mean sea level (AMSL), and average ground flash density. For three sites, the most severe lightning events have been identified during the warm and cold months whereas the other two locations exhibit severe lightning detections mainly during the warm months. In this work severity......Five years of Lightning Location System (LLS) data from five different wind turbine sites in Europe are analysed. The sites are located in Croatia, Italy, Spain, France and one offshore wind power plant in the North sea. Each location exhibits individual characteristic properties in terms...... of such an episode can vary from tens of minutes to several hours in the case of new storms being continuously developed in the same area. The distance of the charge separating -10◦ C and the ground is usually larger than 3000 meters. This analyse provides information about the different thunderstorm types which...

  8. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  9. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  10. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

  11. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Garfinkel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer–Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  12. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Gordon, Amit; Oman, Luke D.; Li, Feng; Davis, Sean; Pawson, Steven

    2018-04-01

    A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  13. Acoustic event location and background noise characterization on a free flying infrasound sensor network in the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Daniel C.; Albert, Sarah A.

    2018-06-01

    A variety of Earth surface and atmospheric sources generate low-frequency sound waves that can travel great distances. Despite a rich history of ground-based sensor studies, very few experiments have investigated the prospects of free floating microphone arrays at high altitudes. However, recent initiatives have shown that such networks have very low background noise and may sample an acoustic wave field that is fundamentally different than that at Earth's surface. The experiments have been limited to at most two stations at altitude, making acoustic event detection and localization difficult. We describe the deployment of four drifting microphone stations at altitudes between 21 and 24 km above sea level. The stations detected one of two regional ground-based chemical explosions as well as the ocean microbarom while travelling almost 500 km across the American Southwest. The explosion signal consisted of multiple arrivals; signal amplitudes did not correlate with sensor elevation or source range. The waveforms and propagation patterns suggest interactions with gravity waves at 35-45 km altitude. A sparse network method that employed curved wave front corrections was able to determine the backazimuth from the free flying network to the acoustic source. Episodic signals similar to those seen on previous flights in the same region were noted, but their source remains unclear. Background noise levels were commensurate with those on infrasound stations in the International Monitoring System below 2 s.

  14. Classification of hemispheric monthly mean stratospheric potential vorticity fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Huth

    Full Text Available Monthly mean NCEP reanalysis potential vorticity fields at the 650 K isentropic level over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres between 1979 and 1997 were studied using multivariate analysis tools. Principal component analysis in the T-mode was applied to demonstrate the validity of such statistical techniques for the study of stratospheric dynamics and climatology. The method, complementarily applied to both the raw and anomaly fields, was useful in determining and classifying the characteristics of winter and summer PV fields on both hemispheres, in particular, the well-known differences in the behaviour and persistence of the polar vortices. It was possible to identify such features as sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere and final warming dates in both hemispheres. The stratospheric impact of other atmospheric processes, such as volcanic eruptions, also identified though the results, must be viewed at this stage as tentative. An interesting change in behaviour around 1990 was detected over both hemispheres.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics; general circulation; climatology

  15. Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C

    Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers extinct. The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

  16. Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-01-01

    We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

  17. Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

    2016-06-01

    An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

  18. Response of a Habitat-Forming Marine Plant to a Simulated Warming Event Is Delayed, Genotype Specific, and Varies with Phenology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura K Reynolds

    Full Text Available Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass. We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14-15°C, but extended warming periods of 17-18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes' production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species' thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient

  19. The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.; Tremblay, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anti-correlated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability in preceding winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Given this relationship and the need for better seasonal predictions of Arctic SIE, we here examine the role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability. We show that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Bering Straight and the Sea of Okhotsk in winter, the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully-coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The accompanying figure shows the composite mean sea ice concentration anomalies from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) for SSWs (N = 126, top row) and SPVs (N = 99, bottom row) for winter (a,d), spring (b,e) and summer (c,f). Consistent with previous work on the AO, we find that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving these sea ice anomalies in the three Arctic regions, noted above, are different. Our analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a non-trivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors.

  20. Different Stratospheric Polar Vortex States linked to Cold-Spells in North America and Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretschmer, M.; Cohen, J. L.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D.

    2017-12-01

    The stratospheric polar vortex in boreal winter can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby surface weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak states of the vortex, e.g. associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs), often precede a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and thus increase the risk of mid-latitude cold-spells especially over Eurasia. Here we show using cluster analysis that next to the well-documented relationship between a zonally symmetric disturbed vortex and a negative NAO, there exists a zonally asymmetric pattern linked to a negative Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in the northeastern US, like for example observed in February 2014. The latter is more synoptic in time-scale but occurs more frequently than SSWs. A causal effect network (CEN) approach gives insights into the underlying physical pathways and time-lags showing that high-pressure around Greenland leads to vertical wave activity over eastern Siberia leading to downward propagating waves over Alaska and high pressure over the North Pacific. Moreover, composites propose that a rather strong mid-stratospheric vortex seems to be favorable for this zonally asymmetric and reflective mechanism. Overall, the mutual relationship between stratospheric circulation and high-latitude blocking in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans is complex and involves mechanisms operating at different time-scales. Our results suggest that the stratospheric influence on winter circulation should not exclusively be analyzed in terms of a downward propagating Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal and SSWs. In particular when studying the stratospheric impacts on North American temperature it is crucial to also consider the more transient and zonally asymmetric events which might help to improve seasonal winter predictions for this region.

  1. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  2. Salinity changes and anoxia resulting from enhanced run-off during the late Permian global warming and mass extinction event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. E. van Soelen

    2018-04-01

    in salinity can only be explained by increased run-off. High amounts of both terrestrial and marine organic fragments in the first anoxic layers suggest that high run-off, increased nutrient availability, possibly in combination with soil erosion, are responsible for the development of anoxia in the basin. Enhanced run-off could result from changes in the hydrological cycle during the late Permian extinction event, which is a likely consequence of global warming. In addition, vegetation destruction and soil erosion may also have resulted in enhanced run-off. Salinity stratification could potentially explain the development of anoxia in other shallow marine sites. The input of freshwater and related changes in coastal salinity could also have implications for the interpretation of oxygen isotope records and seawater temperature reconstructions at some sites.

  3. Salinity changes and anoxia resulting from enhanced run-off during the late Permian global warming and mass extinction event

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Soelen, Elsbeth E.; Twitchett, Richard J.; Kürschner, Wolfram M.

    2018-04-01

    explained by increased run-off. High amounts of both terrestrial and marine organic fragments in the first anoxic layers suggest that high run-off, increased nutrient availability, possibly in combination with soil erosion, are responsible for the development of anoxia in the basin. Enhanced run-off could result from changes in the hydrological cycle during the late Permian extinction event, which is a likely consequence of global warming. In addition, vegetation destruction and soil erosion may also have resulted in enhanced run-off. Salinity stratification could potentially explain the development of anoxia in other shallow marine sites. The input of freshwater and related changes in coastal salinity could also have implications for the interpretation of oxygen isotope records and seawater temperature reconstructions at some sites.

  4. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  5. Isolating the Roles of Different Forcing Agents in Global Stratospheric Temperature Changes Using Model Integrations with Incrementally Added Single Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely

  6. Studying Stratospheric Temperature Variation with Cosmic Ray Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohang; He, Xiaochun

    2015-04-01

    The long term stratospheric cooling in recent decades is believed to be equally important as surface warming as evidence of influences of human activities on the climate system. Un- fortunatly, there are some discrepancies among different measurements of stratospheric tem- peratures, which could be partially caused by the limitations of the measurement techniques. It has been known for decades that cosmic ray muon flux is sensitive to stratospheric temperature change. Dorman proposed that this effect could be used to probe the tempera- ture variations in the stratophere. In this talk, a method for reconstructing stratospheric temperature will be discussed. We verify this method by comparing the stratospheric tem- perature measured by radiosonde with the ones derived from cosmic ray measurement at multiple locations around the globe.

  7. Transport of Ice into the Stratosphere and the Humidification of the Stratosphere over the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessler, A. E.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Butler, A. H.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Davis, S. M.; Portmann, R. W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by approx. 1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

  8. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering

    KAUST Repository

    Robock, Alan

    2009-10-02

    Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers, and costs to those of other responses to global warming, including doing nothing. Here we evaluate those factors for stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols. Using existing U.S. military fighter and tanker planes, the annual costs of injecting aerosol precursors into the lower stratosphere would be several billion dollars. Using artillery or balloons to loft the gas would be much more expensive. We do not have enough information to evaluate more exotic techniques, such as pumping the gas up through a hose attached to a tower or balloon system. Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection would cool the planet, stop the melting of sea ice and land-based glaciers, slow sea level rise, and increase the terrestrial carbon sink, but produce regional drought, ozone depletion, less sunlight for solar power, and make skies less blue. Furthermore it would hamper Earth-based optical astronomy, do nothing to stop ocean acidification, and present many ethical and moral issues. Further work is needed to quantify many of these factors to allow informed decision-making.

  9. A closer look at the central Pacific El Niño and warm pool migration events from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, Autumn; Jo, Young-Heon; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, it has been observed that there are different types of El Niño events. The warm events can be divided into two categories: those centered in the central Pacific (CP) and those centered in the eastern Pacific (EP). We examined the variability of western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) horizontal migration and size from January 1982 to December 2011 by applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Hilbert-Huang Spectrum (HHS) to the optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (OISST) data set. The analysis shows that the long-term residual trend of the zonal centroid movement is migrating to the west by 3.78° from the mean location during the past 30 years. The size of the warm pool has also increased 18% during this period. These analysis techniques isolated two separate time series for the migration of the zonal component of the WPWP for both CP and EP events and showed that these two types of El Niño generally operate at different time scales. The EP time series shows the strong traditional EP El Niño and the transition between strong El Niño conditions and La Niña conditions. The CP time series shows that CP El Niños occur more often than EP El Niños. The changes of El Niño type in conjunction with westward drift and increasing warm pool size shows an interesting multidecadal change in the warm pool. Potential mechanisms relating the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to El Niño typologies were also discussed.

  10. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn

    2005-01-01

    stratosphere, including the Antarctic temperature minima crucial for polar ozone chemistry, but failed to capture the precise timing and evolution of Arctic stratospheric warmings. We also identified an important model deficiency regarding tracer transport in the lower polar stratosphere. The success of the runs with tropospheric nudging in simulating the right stratospheric conditions, including the model capability to forecast major stratospheric warming events, bodes well for the model's representation of the dynamic coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere, an important element of realistic simulation of the future climate of the middle atmosphere (which will partly depend on a changing wave forcing from the troposphere). However, for some aspects of stratospheric dynamics, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, a higher vertical resolution is required, which might also help to reduce some of the transport problems identified in the lower polar vortex. The nudging technique applied and developed in this thesis offers excellent prospects for applications in coupled-chemistry simulations of the middle atmosphere, including for the interpretation of instantaneous measurements. In particular, it can be used to test and improve the new MA-ECHAM5/MESSy/MECCA coupled chemistry climate model system, in preparation for more reliable simulations of past and future climates.

  11. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of…

  12. A simple kinematic model for the Lagrangian description of relevant nonlinear processes in the stratospheric polar vortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. J. García-Garrido

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we study the Lagrangian footprint of the planetary waves present in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the exceptional sudden Stratospheric warming event that took place during September 2002. Our focus is on constructing a simple kinematic model that retains the fundamental mechanisms responsible for complex fluid parcel evolution, during the polar vortex breakdown and its previous stages. The construction of the kinematic model is guided by the Fourier decomposition of the geopotential field. The study of Lagrangian transport phenomena in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data highlights hyperbolic trajectories, and these trajectories are Lagrangian objects that are the kinematic mechanism for the observed filamentation phenomena. Our analysis shows that the breaking and splitting of the polar vortex is justified in our model by the sudden growth of a planetary wave and the decay of the axisymmetric flow.

  13. How stratospheric are deep stratospheric intrusions? LUAMI 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Trickl

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A large-scale comparison of water-vapour vertical-sounding instruments took place over central Europe on 17 October 2008, during a rather homogeneous deep stratospheric intrusion event (LUAMI, Lindenberg Upper-Air Methods Intercomparison. The measurements were carried out at four observational sites: Payerne (Switzerland, Bilthoven (the Netherlands, Lindenberg (north-eastern Germany, and the Zugspitze mountain (Garmisch-Partenkichen, German Alps, and by an airborne water-vapour lidar system creating a transect of humidity profiles between all four stations. A high data quality was verified that strongly underlines the scientific findings. The intrusion layer was very dry with a minimum mixing ratios of 0 to 35 ppm on its lower west side, but did not drop below 120 ppm on the higher-lying east side (Lindenberg. The dryness hardens the findings of a preceding study (“Part 1”, Trickl et al., 2014 that, e.g., 73 % of deep intrusions reaching the German Alps and travelling 6 days or less exhibit minimum mixing ratios of 50 ppm and less. These low values reflect values found in the lowermost stratosphere and indicate very slow mixing with tropospheric air during the downward transport to the lower troposphere. The peak ozone values were around 70 ppb, confirming the idea that intrusion layers depart from the lowermost edge of the stratosphere. The data suggest an increase of ozone from the lower to the higher edge of the intrusion layer. This behaviour is also confirmed by stratospheric aerosol caught in the layer. Both observations are in agreement with the idea that sections of the vertical distributions of these constituents in the source region were transferred to central Europe without major change. LAGRANTO trajectory calculations demonstrated a rather shallow outflow from the stratosphere just above the dynamical tropopause, for the first time confirming the conclusions in “Part 1” from the Zugspitze CO observations. The

  14. Triton - Stratospheric molecules and organic sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, W. Reid; Singh, Sushil K.; Khare, B. N.; Sagan, Carl

    1989-01-01

    Continuous-flow plasma discharge techniques show production rates of hydrocarbons and nitriles in N2 + CH4 atmospheres appropriate to the stratosphere of Titan, and indicate that a simple eddy diffusion model together with the observed electron flux quantitatively matches the Voyager IRIS observations for all the hydrocarbons, except for the simplest ones. Charged particle chemistry is very important in Triton's stratosphere. In the more CH4-rich case of Titan, many hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in high yield. If N2 is present, the CH4 fraction is low, but hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in fair yield, abundances of HCN and C2H2 in Triton's stratosphere exceed 10 to the 19th molecules/sq cm per sec, and NCCN, C3H4, and other species are predicted to be present. These molecules may be detected by IRIS if the stratosphere is as warm as expected. Both organic haze and condensed gases will provide a substantial UV and visible opacity in Triton's atmosphere.

  15. Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

    2004-01-01

    The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

  16. Chlorine in the stratosphere

    OpenAIRE

    VON CLARMANN, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the various aspects of chlorine compounds in the stratosphere, both their roles as reactants and as tracers of dynamical processes. In the stratosphere, reactive chlorine is released from chlorofluorocarbons and other chlorine-containing organic source gases. To a large extent reactive chlorine is then sequestered in reservoir species ClONO2 and HCl. Re-activation of chlorine happens predominantly in polar winter vortices by heterogeneous reaction in combination with sunlig...

  17. Phytoplankton Community Structure in 2011-2013 Compared to the Extratropical Warming Event of 2014-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, X.; Peterson, W. T.

    2018-02-01

    Coastal waters of the Northern California Current experienced "normal" ocean conditions in 2011-2012, weak upwelling in 2013-2014, then suddenly warmed in September 2014. The response of phytoplankton community structure to contrasting ocean conditions was determined from samples collected off Newport, Oregon. Cluster analysis identified three prominent phytoplankton community types: one that occurred during the upwelling season characterized by the highest abundance and diversity of diatoms, a preupwelling/relaxation community characterized by lower abundance, lowest diversity of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and another one associated with the warm anomalies from September 2014 through 2015 with reduced diatom abundance and diversity but the highest dinoflagellate diversity. The changes of diatom and dinoflagellate community were correlated with local factors (silicate, silicate: nitrate ratios, temperature, and salinity), and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

  18. Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, Rudolf, F.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Stratospheric aerosols affect the atmospheric energy balance by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation. They also can alter stratospheric chemical cycles by catalyzing heterogeneous reactions which markedly perturb odd nitrogen, chlorine and ozone levels. Aerosol measurements by satellites began in NASA in 1975 with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) program, to be followed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) starting in 1979. Both programs employ the solar occultation, or Earth limb extinction, techniques. Major results of these activities include the discovery of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in both hemispheres in winter, illustrations of the impacts of major (El Chichon 1982 and Pinatubo 1991) eruptions, and detection of a negative global trend in lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric aerosol extinction. This latter result can be considered a triumph of successful worldwide sulfur emission controls. The SAGE record will be continued and improved by SAGE III, currently scheduled for multiple launches beginning in 2000 as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The satellite program has been supplemented by in situ measurements aboard the ER-2 (20 km ceiling) since 1974, and from the DC-8 (13 km ceiling) aircraft beginning in 1989. Collection by wire impactors and subsequent electron microscopic and X-ray energy-dispersive analyses, and optical particle spectrometry have been the principle techniques. Major findings are: (1) The stratospheric background aerosol consists of dilute sulfuric acid droplets of around 0.1 micrometer modal diameter at concentration of tens to hundreds of monograms per cubic meter; (2) Soot from aircraft amounts to a fraction of one percent of the background total aerosol; (3) Volcanic eruptions perturb the sulfuric acid, but not the soot, aerosol abundance by several orders of magnitude; (4) PSCs contain nitric acid at temperatures below 195K, supporting chemical hypotheses

  19. Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

    2018-02-01

    Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

  20. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  1. Antagonism between elevated CO2, nighttime warming, and summer drought reduces the robustness of PSII performance to freezing events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albert, Kristian Rost; Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

    2013-01-01

    yield in light, Fv′/Fm′, using the pulse amplitude methodology, and the total performance index, PItotal, which integrate changes of the chlorophyll-a fluorescence transient including the maximal quantum yield in darkness, Fv/Fm.Decreasing temperature during autumn linearly reduced PItotal, both...... in the wavy hair-grass, Deschampsia flexuosa, and in the evergreen dwarf shrub common heather, Calluna vulgaris, and following freezing events the PItotal and Fv′/Fm′ were reduced even more. Contrary to expected, indirect effects of the previous summer drought reduced PSII performance before freezing events...

  2. Stratospheric Influence on Summer Monsoon and Associated Planetary Wave Breaking and Mixing in the Subtropical Tropopause Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubis, S. W.; Nakamura, N.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have shown that the monsoonal circulation plays an important role in planetary wave breaking (PWB). The highest frequency of breaking events occurs just downstream (east) of the monsoon region in summer. PWB induces mixing of potential vorticity (PV) and hence, alter the horizontal mixing in the atmosphere. Here, the authors hypothesize that the stratospheric easterlies in the boreal summer also play a significant role in the PWB and mixing associated with the summer monsoon. If the stratospheric winds were westerly in boreal summer, the frequency of PWB would be decreased due to more waves penetrating in the stratosphere, resulting in less horizontal PWB and thus reduced mixing in the subtropical tropopause region. The hypothesis is examined by using a set of idealized moist GFDL simulations. The monsoon circulation is produced by adding a land-sea contrast with a Gaussian-shaped mountains positioned in the midlatitudes. Other key ingredients for the monsoon, including albedo, oceanic warm pool, and Q-flux, were also ideally imposed in all simulations. Our control simulation produces a summer monsoon-like circulation similar to the observation. In particular, the thermally forced monsoonal circulation forms a prominent closed upper-level anticyclone that dominates the summertime upper-level flow. Associated with this circulation is an upward-bulging tropopause that forms a large reservoir of anomalously low PV. Consistent with previous studies, the well-defined tropospheric jet lies just poleward of the upper-level anticyclone, and acts as a dynamical barrier between the low-PV reservoir over the monsoonal region and the high-PV reservoir in the extratropics. This barrier disappears just northeast of the monsoon area in the jet exit region, allowing more quasi-planetary waves to break in this region. Repetitive wave breaking further weakens the PV gradient, leading to the formation of the surf zone and stronger mixing in this region. To quantify

  3. Stratospheric H2O

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1979-01-01

    Documentation of the extreme aridity (approx. 3% relative humidity) of the lower stratosphere and the rapid decrease of mixing ratio with height just above the polar tropopause (20-fold in the 1st km) was begun by Dobson et al., (1946) in 1943. They recognized that this extreme and persistent aridity must be dynamically maintained else it would have been wiped out by turbulent diffusion. This led Brewer (1949) to hypothesize a stratospheric circulation in which all air enters through the tropical tropopause where it is freeze dried to a mass mixing ratio of 2 to 3 ppM. This dry air then spreads poleward and descends through the polar tropopauses overpowering upward transport of water vapor by diffusion which would otherwise be permitted by the much warmer temperatures of the polar tropopauses. Questions can indeed be raised as to the absolute magnitudes of stratospheric mixing ratios, the effective temperature of the tropical tropopause cold trap, the reality of winter pole freeze-dry sinks and the representativeness of the available observations suggesting an H 2 O mixing ratio maximum just above the tropical tropopause and a constant mixing ratio from the tropopause to 30 to 35 km. However, no model that better fits all of the available data is available, than does the Brewer (1949) hypothesis coupled with a lower stratosphere winter pole, freeze-dry sink, at least over Antarctica

  4. Projected Changes in Persistent Extreme Warm-Season Weather Events: The Role of Quasi-Resonant Amplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kornhuber, K.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.; Coumou, D.

    2017-12-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer are typically associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers. Such disturbances are favoured by the phenomenon of Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally-averaged surface temperature field. Examining future state-of-the-art (CMIP5) climate model projections we find that such events are likely to increase by 50% over the next century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models, with some models predicting a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century. These results are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the prominence of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century.

  5. Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

  6. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

  7. Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes.

    In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days.

    Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates

  8. Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes. In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days. Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates that the temporal

  9. A stratospheric aerosol increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, J. M.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    Large disturbances were noted in the stratospheric aerosol content in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere commencing about 7 months after the eruption of La Soufriere and less than 1 month after the eruption of Sierra Negra. The aerosol was characterized by a very steep size distribution in the 0.15 to 0.25 micron radius range and contained a volatile component. Measurements near the equator and at the South Pole indicate that the disturbance was widespread. These observations were made before the May 18 eruption of Mt. St. Helens.

  10. Evolution of stratospheric ozone during winter 2002/2003 as observed by a ground-based millimetre wave radiometer at Kiruna, Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Raffalski

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We present ozone measurements from the millimetre wave radiometer installed at the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (Institutet för rymdfysik, IRF in Kiruna (67.8° N, 20.4° E, 420 m asl. Nearly continuous operation in the winter of 2002/2003 allows us to give an overview of ozone evolution in the stratosphere between 15 and 55 km. In this study we present a detailed analysis of the Arctic winter 2002/2003. By means of a methodology using equivalent latitudes we investigate the meteorological processes in the stratosphere during the entire winter/spring period. During the course of the winter strong mixing into the vortex took place in the middle and upper stratosphere as a result of three minor and one major warming event, but no evidence was found for significant mixing in the lower stratosphere. Ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere during this winter was estimated by measurements on those days when Kiruna was well inside the Arctic polar vortex. The days were carefully chosen using a definition of the vortex edge based on equivalent latitudes. At the 475 K isentropic level a cumulative ozone loss of about 0.5 ppmv was found starting in January and lasting until mid-March. The early ozone loss is probably a result of the very cold temperatures in the lower stratosphere in December and the geographical extension of the vortex to lower latitudes where solar irradiation started photochemical ozone loss in the pre-processed air. In order to correct for dynamic effects of the ozone variation due to diabatic subsidence of air masses inside the vortex, we used N2O measurements from the Odin satellite for the same time period. The derived ozone loss in the lower stratosphere between mid-December and mid-March varies between 1.1±0.1 ppmv on the 150 ppbv N2O isopleth and 1.7±0.1 ppmv on the 50 ppbv N2O isopleth.

  11. A closer look at the relationships between meridional mass circulation pulses in the stratosphere and cold air outbreak patterns in northern hemispheric winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai; Rao, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between continental-scale cold air outbreaks (CAOs) in the mid-latitudes and pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) is investigated using ERA-Interim data for the 32 winters from 1979 to 2011. Pulse signals in the stratospheric mass circulation include "PULSE_TOT", "PULSE_W1", and "PULSE_W2" events, defined as a period of stronger meridional mass transport into the polar stratosphere by total flow, wavenumber-1, and wavenumber-2, respectively. Each type of PULSE event occurs on average 4-6 times per winter. A robust relationship is found between two dominant patterns of winter CAOs and PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. Cold temperature anomalies tend to occur over Eurasia with the other continent anomalously warm during the 2 weeks before the peak dates of PULSE_W1 events, while the opposite temperature anomaly pattern can be found after the peak dates; and during the 1-2 weeks centered on the peak dates of PULSE_W2 events, a higher probability of occurrence of CAOs is found over both continents. These relationships become more robust for PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events of larger peak intensity. PULSE_TOT events are classified into five types, which have a distinct coupling relationship with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The specific pattern of CAOs associated with each type of PULSE_TOT event is found to be a combination of the CAO patterns associated with PULSE_W1 and PULSE_W2 events. The percentage of PULSE_TOT events belonging to the types that are dominated by PULSE_W2 events increases with the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events. Accordingly, the related CAO pattern is close to that associated with PULSE_W1 for PULSE_TOT events with small-to-medium intensity, but tends to resemble that associated with PULSE_W2 events as the peak intensity of PULSE_TOT events increases.

  12. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  13. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  14. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  15. Polar-Tropical Coupling in the Winter Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, R.

    2017-12-01

    A distinct pattern of enhanced equatorial potential vorticitygradients during QBO westerly anomalies, enhanced subtropicalgradients during QBO easterlies, is used to motivate a new formulationof dynamical coupling between the tropics and winter polar vortexbased on remote transfer of finite amplitude wave activity defined interms of lateral potential vorticity displacements. While the weakpotential vorticity gradients in the surf zone imply laterallyevanescent Rossby waves, transfer of wave activity from the polarvortex edge to the subtropical barrier or to the QBO westerly phaseequatorial gradients arises from nonlocality of potential vorticityinversion and the large horizontal displacements of the vortex edge.Our approach goes beyond the traditional description of the effect ofQBO wind anomalies on linear wave propagation through the stratospherevia wave reflection at the zero wind line; linear wave theory isappealing but neglects the long horizontal and vertical wavelengthsinvolved and the inhomogeneous background potential vorticity. Aparticular issue of outstanding interest is whether and how therelatively shallow QBO anomalies can influence the deep verticallypropagating waves on the edge of the winter stratospheric polarvortex. Process studies with a mechanistic model with prescribed QBOand carefully controlled high-latitude wave forcing are analyzed,guided by a reexamination of meteorological reanalysis, to address howsuch a dynamical linkage may influence in particular the resonantexcitation of the winter vortex, and the occurrence ofvortex-splitting sudden warming events. We quantify the associatedtransfer of wave activity from vortex edge to the tropics, considerunder what conditions this becomes a significant source of easterlymomentum in the driving of the QBO itself, and how the structure ofthe Brewer-Dobson circulation varies in response to the location ofthe QBO westerly winds in any given winter.

  16. Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anet, J. G.; Muthers, S.; Rozanov, E.; Raible, C. C.; Peter, T.; Stenke, A.; Shapiro, A. I.; Beer, J.; Steinhilber, F.; Brönnimann, S.; Arfeuille, F.; Brugnara, Y.; Schmutz, W.

    2013-11-01

    The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation

  17. The greenhouse effect and climate warming up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leygonie, R.

    1992-01-01

    The present article is a follow-up to a previous article, under the same title, which describes the scientific bases of the greenhouse effect and the prospect, based on climatic global models, of a potential climate warming up. The conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, August 1990) were summarized, predicting a mean global temperature increase between 2.4 and 5.1 deg C in 2070, among other changes. The recent IPCC work confirms 1990 conclusions but states that the decline of ozone in the lower stratosphere could neutralize the radiative forcing of chlorofluorocarbons. At least ten more years of investigation are needed to ascertain an increase of the greenhouse effect. Information is given on recent events which may be connected with the global climate problem, in particular the spectacular eruption of the Pinatubo volcano, in mid 1991, cause of a probable cooling of the atmosphere and a potential decrease of radiative forcing due to anthropogenic dioxide emissions. The most important recent events in the political field is a directive proposal by the European Commission aimed at a taxation of both energy in general and of carbon dioxide emissions by fossil fuels. Another event is the United Nations Convention on climate change, signed by 155 countries at the Rio de Janeiro Conference on Environment and Development, which pledges signatories to decrease their greenhouse gas - emissions but no figures are given on percentages and calendar of reduction. At last, a short chapter is devoted to the French ECLAT programme on climate change which consists both in participating in world programmes and in performing original investigations by French Scientists

  18. Stratospheric changes caused by geoengineering applications: potential repercussions and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenzelmann, P.; Weisenstein, D.; Peter, T.; Luo, B. P.; Rozanov, E.; Fueglistaler, S.; Thomason, L. W.

    2009-04-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions tend to warm the global climate, calling for significant rapid emission reductions. As potential support measures various ideas for geoengineering are currently being discussed. The assessment of the possible manifold and as yet substantially unexplored repercussions of implementing geoengineering ideas to ameliorate climate change poses enormous challenges not least in the realm of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Sulphur aerosols cool the Earth's surface by reflecting short wave radiation. By increasing the amount of sulphur aerosols in the stratosphere, for example by sulphur dioxide injections, part of the anthropogenic climate warming might be compensated due to enhanced albedo. However, we are only at the beginning of understanding possible side effects. One such effect that such aerosol might have is the warming of the tropical tropopause and consequently the increase of the amount of stratospheric water vapour. Using the 2D AER Aerosol Model we calculated the aerosol distributions for yearly injections of 1, 2, 5 and 10 Mt sulphur into the lower tropical stratosphere. The results serve as input for the 3D chemistry-climate model SOCOL, which allows calculating the aerosol effect on stratospheric temperatures and chemistry. In the injection region the continuously formed sulphuric acid condensates rapidly on sulphate aerosol, which eventually grow to such extent that they sediment down to the tropical tropopause region. The growth of the aerosol particles depends on non-linear processes: the more sulphur is emitted the faster the particles grow. As a consequence for the scenario with continuous sulphur injection of totally 10 Mt per year, only 6 Mt sulphur are in the stratosphere if equilibrium is reached. According to our model calculations this amount of sulphate aerosols leads to a net surface forcing of -3.4 W/m2, which is less then expected radiative forcing by doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Hence

  19. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

    1992-01-01

    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  20. Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

    2018-02-01

    We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

  1. Condensed Acids In Antartic Stratospheric Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, R. F.; Snetsinger, K. G.; Toon, O. B.; Ferry, G. V.; Starr, W. L.; Oberbeck, V. R.; Chan, K. R.; Goodman, J. K.; Livingston, J. M.; Verma, S.; hide

    1992-01-01

    Report dicusses nitrate, sulfate, and chloride contents of stratospheric aerosols during 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Emphasizes growth of HNO3*3H2O particles in polar stratospheric clouds. Important in testing theories concerning Antarctic "ozone hole".

  2. Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on PM2.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Xia, L.; Tilmes, S.; Mills, M. J.; Richter, J.; Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D.

    2017-12-01

    Particulate matter (PM) includes sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, soil dust, and sea salt. The first four components are mostly present near the ground as fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and these are of the most concern for human health. PM is efficiently scavenged by precipitation, which is its main atmospheric sink. Here we examine the impact of stratospheric climate engineering on this important pollutant and health risk, taking advantage of two sets of climate model simulations conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. We use the full tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry version of the Community Earth System Model - Community Atmospheric Model 4 (CESM CAM4-chem) with a horizontal resolution of 0.9° x 1.25° lat-lon to simulate a stratospheric sulfate injection climate intervention of 8 Tg SO2 yr-1 combined with an RCP6.0 global warming forcing, the G4 Specified Stratospheric Aerosol (G4SSA) scenario. We also analyze the output from a 20-member ensemble of Community Earth System Model, version 1 with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM1(WACCM)) simulations, also at 0.9° x 1.25° lat-lon resolution, with sulfur dioxide injection at 15°N, 15°S, 30°N, and 30°S varying in time to balance RCP8.5 forcing. While the CESM CAM4-chem model has full tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, CESM1(WACCM) has an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation and a comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric sulfate aerosol treatment, but only stratospheric chemistry. For G4SSA, there are a global temperature reduction of 0.8 K and global averaged precipitation decrease of 3% relative to RCP6.0. The global averaged surface PM2.5 reduces about 1% compared with RCP6.0, mainly over Eurasian and East Asian regions in Northern Hemisphere winter. The PM2.5 concentration change is a combination of effects from tropospheric chemistry and precipitation

  3. Stratospheric Platforms for Monitoring Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konigorski, D.; Gratzel, U.; Obersteiner, M.; Schneidereit, M.

    2010-01-01

    Stratospheric platforms are emerging systems based on challenging technology. Goal is to create a platform, payload, and mission design which is able to complement satellite services on a local scale. Applications are close to traditional satellite business in telecommunication, navigation, science, and earth observation and include for example mobile telecommunications, navigation augmentation, atmospheric research, or border control. Stratospheric platforms could potentially support monitoring activities related to safeguards, e.g. by imagery of surfaces, operational conditions of nuclear facilities, and search for undeclared nuclear activities. Stratospheric platforms are intended to be flown in an altitude band between 16 and 30 km, above 16-20 km to take advantage of usually lower winds facilitating station keeping, below 30 km to limit the challenges to achieve a reasonable payload at acceptable platform sizes. Stratospheric platforms could substitute satellites which are expensive and lack upgrade capabilities for new equipment. Furthermore they have practically an unlimited time over an area of interest. It is intended to keep the platforms operational and maintenance free on a 24/7 basis with an average deployment time of 3 years. Geostationary satellites lack resolution. Potential customers like Armed Forces, National Agencies and commercial customers have indicated interest in the use of stratospheric platforms. Governmental entities are looking for cheaper alternatives to communications and surveillance satellites and stratospheric platforms could offer the following potential advantages: Lower operational cost than satellite or UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) constellation (fleet required); Faster deployment than satellite constellation; Repositioning capability and ability to loiter as required; Persistent long-term real-time services over a fairly large regional spot; Surge capability: Able to extend capability (either monitoring or communications

  4. Stratospheric ethane on Neptune - Comparison of groundbased and Voyager IRIS retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostiuk, Theodor; Romani, Paul; Espenak, Fred; Bezard, Bruno

    1992-01-01

    Near-simultaneous ground and spacecraft measurements of 12-micron ethane emission spectra during the Voyager encounter with Neptune have furnished bases for the determination of stratospheric ethane abundance and the testing and constraining of Neptune methane-photochemistry models. The ethane retrievals were sensitive to the thermal profile used. Contribution functions for warm thermal profiles peaked at higher altitudes, as expected, with the heterodyne functions covering lower-pressure regions. Both constant- and nonconstant-with-height profiles remain candidate distributions for Neptune's stratospheric ethane.

  5. Stratospheric aerosols and precursor gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    Measurements were made of the aerosol size, height and geographical distribution, their composition and optical properties, and their temporal variation with season and following large volcanic eruptions. Sulfur-bearing gases were measured in situ in the stratosphere, and studied of the chemical and physical processes which control gas-to-particle conversion were carried out in the laboratory.

  6. Investigation of the temporal development of the stratospheric ozone layer with an interactively coupled chemistry-climate model; Untersuchung der zeitlichen Entwicklung der stratosphaerischen Ozonschicht mit einem interaktiv gekoppelten Klima-Chemie-Modell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnadt, C

    2001-07-01

    The impact of climate change and stratospheric chlorine loading on the stratospheric ozone layer is estimated by evaluating three multi-annual simulations of the interactively coupled global chemistry-climate model ECUAM4.L39 (DLR)/CHEM. Two experiments of the near past were carried out representing the early 1980s and 1990s, respectively. An additional scenario was conducted which is characterised by increased greenhouse gas concentrations and a slightly reduced stratospheric chlorine loading with respect to its value measured in the year 1990, according to current projections. The model is able to describe dynamic and chemical processes of the 1980s and 1990s realistically, and it is capable in reproducing the observed stratospheric temperature, water vapour, and ozone temperature trends of this time period. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the model produces an enhancing stratospheric cooling for the years 1980 to 2015. Despite the reduced stratospheric chlorine loading in 2015, the decreased stratospheric temperatures will cause a continued reduction of stratospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere. In the northern hemisphere, tropospheric warming results in a changed excitation of planetary waves. Their vertical propagation and breaking in the stratosphere causes the polar vortex to become more unstable in 2015. This overcompensates the radiative stratospheric cooling so that stratospheric ozone recovers. (orig.)

  7. Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a summertime extratropical low: analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brioude

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and carbon monoxide measurements sampled during two commercial flights in airstreams of a summertime midlatitude cyclone are analysed with a Lagrangian-based study (backward trajectories and a Reverse Domain Filling technique to gain a comprehensive understanding of transport effects on trace gas distributions. The study demonstrates that summertime cyclones can be associated with deep stratosphere-troposphere transport. A tropopause fold is sampled twice in its life cycle, once in the lower troposphere (O3≃100 ppbv; CO≃90 ppbv in the dry airstream of the cyclone, and again in the upper troposphere (O3≃200 ppbv; CO≃90 ppbv on the northern side of the large scale potential vorticity feature associated with baroclinic development. In agreement with the maritime development of the cyclone, the chemical composition of the anticyclonic portion of the warm conveyor belt outflow (O3≃40 ppbv; CO≃85 ppbv corresponds to the lowest mixing ratios of both ozone and carbon monoxide in the upper tropospheric airborne observations. The uncertain degree of confidence of the Lagrangian-based technique applied to a 100 km segment of upper level airborne observations with high ozone (200 ppbv and relatively low CO (80 ppbv observed northwest of the cyclone prevents identification of the ozone enrichment process of air parcels embedded in the cyclonic part of the upper level outflow of the warm conveyor belt. Different hypotheses of stratosphere-troposphere exchange are discussed.

  8. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  9. Strong modification of stratospheric ozone forcing by cloud and sea-ice adjustments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xia

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the climatic impact of stratospheric ozone recovery (SOR, with a focus on the surface temperature change in atmosphere–slab ocean coupled climate simulations. We find that although SOR would cause significant surface warming (global mean: 0.2 K in a climate free of clouds and sea ice, it causes surface cooling (−0.06 K in the real climate. The results here are especially interesting in that the stratosphere-adjusted radiative forcing is positive in both cases. Radiation diagnosis shows that the surface cooling is mainly due to a strong radiative effect resulting from significant reduction of global high clouds and, to a lesser extent, from an increase in high-latitude sea ice. Our simulation experiments suggest that clouds and sea ice are sensitive to stratospheric ozone perturbation, which constitutes a significant radiative adjustment that influences the sign and magnitude of the global surface temperature change.

  10. STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND WATER LOSS FROM MOIST GREENHOUSE ATMOSPHERES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasting, James F.; Kopparapu, Ravi K. [Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801 (United States); Chen, Howard, E-mail: jfk4@psu.edu, E-mail: hwchen@bu.edu [Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave., Boston, MA 02215 (United States)

    2015-11-01

    A radiative-convective climate model is used to calculate stratospheric temperatures and water vapor concentrations for ozone-free atmospheres warmer than that of modern Earth. Cold, dry stratospheres are predicted at low surface temperatures, in agreement with recent 3D calculations. However, at surface temperatures above 350 K, the stratosphere warms and water vapor becomes a major upper atmospheric constituent, allowing water to be lost by photodissociation and hydrogen escape. Hence, a moist greenhouse explanation for loss of water from Venus, or some exoplanet receiving a comparable amount of stellar radiation, remains a viable hypothesis. Temperatures in the upper parts of such atmospheres are well below those estimated for a gray atmosphere, and this factor should be taken into account when performing inverse climate calculations to determine habitable zone boundaries using 1D models.

  11. STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND WATER LOSS FROM MOIST GREENHOUSE ATMOSPHERES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasting, James F.; Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Chen, Howard

    2015-01-01

    A radiative-convective climate model is used to calculate stratospheric temperatures and water vapor concentrations for ozone-free atmospheres warmer than that of modern Earth. Cold, dry stratospheres are predicted at low surface temperatures, in agreement with recent 3D calculations. However, at surface temperatures above 350 K, the stratosphere warms and water vapor becomes a major upper atmospheric constituent, allowing water to be lost by photodissociation and hydrogen escape. Hence, a moist greenhouse explanation for loss of water from Venus, or some exoplanet receiving a comparable amount of stellar radiation, remains a viable hypothesis. Temperatures in the upper parts of such atmospheres are well below those estimated for a gray atmosphere, and this factor should be taken into account when performing inverse climate calculations to determine habitable zone boundaries using 1D models

  12. Laboratory chemistry and stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario J.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented from laboratory experiments on the chemistry of ice particles to study the role of HCl and ClONO2 from CFCs in stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica. It is found that gaseous HCl is scavenged with high efficiency by the ice and the gas phase chlorine nitrate may react with the HCL-containing ice to produce Cl2. Also, consideration is given ot the behavior of solid nitric acid trihydrate and sulfuric acid aerosols.

  13. On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, Ales; Ball, William T.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr; Peter, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    The double-peaked response of the tropical stratospheric temperature profile to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) has been well documented. However, there are concerns about the origin of the lower peak due to potential aliasing with volcanic eruptions or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) detected using multiple linear regression analysis. We confirm the aliasing using the results of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3 obtained in the framework of the International Global Atmospheric Chemisty/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1. We further show that even without major volcanic eruptions included in transient simulations, the lower stratospheric response exhibits a residual peak when historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)/sea ice coverage (SIC) are used. Only the use of climatological SSTs/SICs in addition to background stratospheric aerosols removes volcanic and ENSO signals and results in an almost complete disappearance of the modeled solar signal in the lower stratospheric temperature. We demonstrate that the choice of temporal subperiod considered for the regression analysis has a large impact on the estimated profile signal in the lower stratosphere: at least 45 consecutive years are needed to avoid the large aliasing effect of SC maxima with volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 in historical simulations, reanalyses, and observations. The application of volcanic forcing compiled for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the CCM SOCOLv3 reduces the warming overestimation in the tropical lower stratosphere and the volcanic aliasing of the temperature response to the SC, although it does not eliminate it completely.

  14. How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

  15. Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. Chapter 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugata, S.

    1997-01-01

    A quantitative evaluation of climate change such as global warming is impossible without a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials. The Center for Climate Research - National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR-NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (hereafter, GCM for a general circulation model) has been developed to obtain such a high-quality model. The emphasis of the development has been laid on the troposphere and the lower stratosphere below about 30 km altitude. This is natural because human beings live on the Earth's surface and the condition of the lower atmosphere directly affects human life. However, the stratosphere and the upper atmosphere beyond it have recently been the focus even in investigations of climate change, because they are relevant to many issues which relate closely to tropospheric climate change, such as the ozone hole, material exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and physical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. This study extended the region of the CCSR-NIES GCM to the lower mesosphere (about 70 km from the surface). This is our first attempt to investigate this GCM's climatology in the upper atmosphere, although some studies for QBO in the middle and lower stratosphere had been done with the GCM

  16. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-03-16

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

  17. On the statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere in winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Graf, H.F.

    1994-01-01

    The associated anomaly patterns of the stratospheric geopotential height field and the tropospheric geopotential and temperature height fields of the northern hemisphere are determined applying the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). With this linear multivariate technique the coupled modes of variability of time series of two fields are isolated in the EOF space. The one data set is the 50 hPa geopotential field, the other set consists of different height fields of the tropospheric pressure levels (200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa) and the temperature of the 850 hPa pressure level. For the winter months (December, January, February) two natural coupled modes, a barotropic and a baroclinic one, of linear relationship between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are found. The baroclinic mode describes a connection between the strength of the stratospheric cyclonic winter vortex and the tropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The corresponding temperature pattern for an anomalously strong stratospheric cyclonic vortex is characterized by positive temperature anomalies over higher latitudes of Eurasia. These 'Winter Warmings' are observed e.g. after violent volcanic eruptions. The barotropic mode is characterized by a zonal wave number one in the lower stratosphere and by a PNA-like pattern in the troposphere. It was shown by Labitzke and van Loon (1987) that this mode can be enhanced e.g. by El Ninos via the intensification of the Aleutian low. (orig.)

  18. On the Climate Impacts of Upper Tropospheric and Lower Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yan; Huang, Yi; Hu, Yongyun

    2018-01-01

    The global warming simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) are generally performed with different ozone prescriptions. We find that the differences in ozone distribution, especially in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric (UTLS) region, account for important model discrepancies shown in the ozone-only historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These discrepancies include global high cloud fraction, stratospheric temperature, and stratospheric water vapor. Through a set of experiments conducted by an atmospheric GCM with contrasting UTLS ozone prescriptions, we verify that UTLS ozone not only directly radiatively heats the UTLS region and cools the upper parts of the stratosphere but also strongly influences the high clouds due to its impact on relative humidity and static stability in the UTLS region and the stratospheric water vapor due to its impact on the tropical tropopause temperature. These consequences strongly affect the global mean effective radiative forcing of ozone, as noted in previous studies. Our findings suggest that special attention should be paid to the UTLS ozone when evaluating the climate effects of ozone depletion in the 20th century and recovery in the 21st century. UTLS ozone difference may also be important for understanding the intermodel discrepancy in the climate projections of the CMIP6 GCMs in which either prescribed or interactive ozone is used.

  19. Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

    2005-02-01

    We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

  20. Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraro, Angus J; Griffiths, Hannah G

    2016-01-01

    The reduction in global-mean precipitation when stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is used to counterbalance global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations has been mainly attributed to the temperature-independent effect of CO 2 on atmospheric radiative cooling. We demonstrate here that stratospheric sulphate aerosol itself also acts to reduce global-mean precipitation independent of its effects on temperature. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoenginering on global-mean precipitation is calculated by removing temperature-dependent effects from climate model simulations of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). When sulphate aerosol is injected into the stratosphere at a rate of 5 Tg SO 2 per year the aerosol reduces global-mean precipitation by approximately 0.2 %, though multiple ensemble members are required to separate this effect from internal variability. For comparison, the precipitation reduction from the temperature-independent effect of increasing CO 2 concentrations under the RCP4.5 scenario of the future is approximately 0.5 %. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric sulphate aerosol arises from the aerosol’s effect on tropospheric radiative cooling. Radiative transfer calculations show this is mainly due to increasing downward emission of infrared radiation by the aerosol, but there is also a contribution from the stratospheric warming the aerosol causes. Our results suggest climate model simulations of solar dimming can capture the main features of the global-mean precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

  1. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  2. Balance of the tropospheric ozone and its relation to stratospheric intrusions indicated by cosmogenic radionuclides. Part 14. Final technical report, 1 November 1977-31 January 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Jaeger, H.; Munzert, K.

    1985-01-01

    The objective was to clarify the effect of stratospheric intrusions on the tropospheric ozone budget. The correlation between stratospheric-tropospheric exchange and solar events was also investigated. Tropospheric ozone was recorded at three different levels. The radioisotopes 7 Be and radon daughter products 214 Pb and 214 Bi were used as tracers to identify the source of ozone

  3. Signals of El Niño Modoki in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Xie

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The effects of El Niño Modoki events on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL and on the stratosphere were investigated using European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF reanalysis data, oceanic El Niño indices, and general climate model outputs. El Niño Modoki events tend to depress convective activities in the western and eastern Pacific but enhance convective activities in the central and northern Pacific. Consequently, during El Niño Modoki events, negative water vapor anomalies occur in the western and eastern Pacific upper troposphere, whereas there are positive anomalies in the central and northern Pacific upper troposphere. The spatial patterns of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies exhibit a tripolar form. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis of the OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies reveals that canonical El Niño events are associated with the leading mode of the EOF, while El Niño Modoki events correspond to the second mode. The composite analysis based on ERA-interim data indicate that El Niño Modoki events have a reverse effect on middle-high latitudes stratosphere, as compared with the effect of typical El Niño events, i.e., the northern polar vortex is stronger and colder but the southern polar vortex is weaker and warmer during El Niño Modoki events. According to the simulation' results, we found that the reverse effect on the middle-high latitudes stratosphere is resulted from a complicated interaction between quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO signal of east phase and El Niño Modoki signal. This interaction is not a simply linear overlay of QBO signal and El Niño Modoki signal in the stratosphere, it is El Niño Modoki that leads to different tropospheric zonal wind anomalies with QBO forcing from that caused by typical El Niño, thus, the planetary wave propagation from troposphere to the stratosphere during El Niño Modoki events is

  4. Global Warming and Its Health Impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossati, Antonella

    2017-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up

  5. Global Warming and Its Health Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Rossati

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far

  6. Response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Gao, Yannan; Cai, Juan; Guo, Dong; Lu, Yan

    2018-04-01

    The response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter is investigated based on measurements of the solar cycle by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor onboard the SORCE satellite, monthly ERA-Interim Reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the radiative transfer scheme of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-RAD) and a multiple linear regression model. The results show that during periods of strong solar activity, the solar shortwave heating anomaly from the climatology in the tropical upper stratosphere triggers a local warm anomaly and strong westerly winds in mid-latitudes, which strengthens the upward propagation of planetary wave 1 but prevents that of wave 2. The enhanced westerly jet makes a slight adjustment to the propagation path of wave 1, but prevents wave 2 from propagating upward, decreases the dissipation of wave 2 in the extratropical upper stratosphere and hence weakens the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The adiabatic heating term in relation to the Brewer-Dobson circulation shows anomalous warming in the tropical lower stratosphere and anomalous cooling in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere.

  7. Variability of tracer transport in spring/summer Arctic stratosphere simulated by CESM-WACCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Hansen, Felicitas; Huret, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    Recent observational and modeling transport studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air can be transported to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC), embedded in the summer easterlies for several months. A climatology of these sporadic events has shown that their frequency of occurrence considerably increased over the last decade: among the nine cases detected over the period 1960-2011, five occurred between 2002 and 2011.Although a stratospheric favorable preconditioning for their occurrence were identified, the causes of such an increase are not yet understood. In this study, a chemistry climate model is used for the first time to investigate FrIACs characteristics and variability. Simulations were performed with the NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), a coupled model system including an interactive ocean (POP2), land (CLM4), sea ice (CICE), and atmosphere (NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)). To detect low-latitude air masses characterizing FrIACs, daily 3-D output of temperature, horizontal wind and pressure are used to calculate the potential vorticity equivalent latitude (PVEL) distribution onto various isentropic levels in the range 700 K - 1200 K. Additionally, anticyclones are identified by using an algorithm designed to detect systematically vortex edges. To classify an event as a FrIAC, we require that the intrusion contains air masses from low-latitudes (below PVEL=40°N), reaches the polar region (beyond 60°N), and is collocated with an anticyclonic eddy. Among the 145 years analyzed (1955-2099), from a simulation with natural forcing conditions only, 20 FrIACs are found. They occur predominantly under a strong and abrupt winter-to-summer dynamical transitions which are driven by large planetary wave activity. FrIACs characteristics (i.e. spatial extent and duration), are overall consistent by comparing with FrIACs detected in ERA

  8. Stratospheric HTO perturbations 1980-1983

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, A. S.

    1985-02-01

    Three perturbations of the stratospheric tritiated water burden have occurred. An atmospheric nuclear detonation in 1980 injected about 2.1 MCi. The massive eruptions of the volcano El Chichon may have contributed to a doubling of the removal rate in 1982. An unusually large wintertime exchange with the upper stratosphere may have occurred between 1982 and 1983.

  9. What Controls the Arctic Lower Stratosphere Temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period. We will further show that the recent cold years in the northern polar vortex are a result of this weakened wave driving of the stratosphere.

  10. The role of carbonyl sulphide as a source of stratospheric sulphate aerosol and its impact on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Brühl

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Globally, carbonyl sulphide (COS is the most abundant sulphur gas in the atmosphere. Our chemistry-climate model (CCM of the lower and middle atmosphere with aerosol module realistically simulates the background stratospheric sulphur cycle, as observed by satellites in volcanically quiescent periods. The model results indicate that upward transport of COS from the troposphere largely controls the sulphur budget and the aerosol loading of the background stratosphere. This differs from most previous studies which indicated that short-lived sulphur gases are also important. The model realistically simulates the modulation of the particulate and gaseous sulphur abundance in the stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO. In the lowermost stratosphere organic carbon aerosol contributes significantly to extinction. Further, using a chemical radiative convective model and recent spectra, we compute that the direct radiative forcing efficiency by 1 kg of COS is 724 times that of 1 kg CO2. Considering an anthropogenic fraction of 30% (derived from ice core data, this translates into an overall direct radiative forcing by COS of 0.003 W m−2. The direct global warming potentials of COS over time horizons of 20 and 100 yr are GWP(20 yr = 97 and GWP(100 yr = 27, respectively (by mass. Furthermore, stratospheric aerosol particles produced by the photolysis of COS (chemical feedback contribute to a negative direct solar radiative forcing, which in the CCM amounts to −0.007 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere for the anthropogenic fraction, more than two times the direct warming forcing of COS. Considering that the lifetime of COS is twice that of stratospheric aerosols the warming and cooling tendencies approximately cancel.

  11. The Evolution and Fate of Saturn's Stratospheric Vortex: Infrared Spectroscopy from Cassini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Leigh N.; Hesman, B. E.; Arhterberg, R. K.; Bjoraker, G.; Irwin, P. G. J.; Hurley, J.; Sinclair, J.; Gorius, N.; Orton, G. S.; Read, P. L.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The planet-encircling springtime storm in Saturn's troposphere (December 2010-July 2011) produced dramatic perturbations to stratospheric temperatures, winds and composition at mbar pressures that persisted long after the tropospheric disturbance had abated. Observations from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS), supported by ground-based imaging from the VISIR instrument on the Very Large Telescope,is used to track the evolution of a large, hot stratospheric anticyclone between January 2011 and the present day. The evolutionary sequence can be divided into three phases: (I) the formation and intensification of two distinct warm airmasses near 0.5 mbar between 25 and 35N (one residing directly above the convective storm head) between January-April 2011, moving westward with different zonal velocities; (II) the merging of the warm airmasses to form the large single 'stratospheric beacon' near 40N between April and June 2011, dissociated from the storm head and at a higher pressure (2 mbar) than the original beacons; and (III) the mature phase characterized by slow cooling and longitudinal shrinkage of the anticyclone since July 2011, moving west with a near-constant velocity of 2.70+/-0.04 deg/day (-24.5+/-0.4 m/s at 40N). Peak temperatures of 220 K at 2 mbar were measured on May 5th 2011 immediately after the merger, some 80 K warmer than the quiescent surroundings. Thermal winds hear calculations in August 2011 suggest clockwise peripheral velocities of 200400 mls at 2 mbar, defining a peripheral collar with a width of 65 degrees longitude (50,000 km in diameter) and 25 degrees latitude. Stratospheric acetylene (C2H2) was uniformly enhanced by a factor of three within the vortex, whereas ethane (C2H6) remained unaffected. We will discuss the thermal and chemical characteristics of Saturn's beacon in its mature phase, and implications for stratospheric vortices on other giant planets.

  12. Enhanced stratospheric water vapor over the summertime continental United States and the role of overshooting convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Robert L.; Ray, Eric A.; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Read, William G.; Troy, Robert F.; Chin, Keith; Christensen, Lance E.; Fu, Dejian; Stachnik, Robert A.; Bui, T. Paul; Dean-Day, Jonathan M.

    2017-05-01

    The NASA ER-2 aircraft sampled the lower stratosphere over North America during the field mission for the NASA Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS). This study reports observations of convectively influenced air parcels with enhanced water vapor in the overworld stratosphere over the summertime continental United States and investigates three case studies in detail. Water vapor mixing ratios greater than 10 ppmv, which is much higher than the background 4 to 6 ppmv of the overworld stratosphere, were measured by the JPL Laser Hygrometer (JLH Mark2) at altitudes between 16.0 and 17.5 km (potential temperatures of approximately 380 to 410 K). Overshooting cloud tops (OTs) are identified from a SEAC4RS OT detection product based on satellite infrared window channel brightness temperature gradients. Through trajectory analysis, we make the connection between these in situ water measurements and OT. Back trajectory analysis ties enhanced water to OT 1 to 7 days prior to the intercept by the aircraft. The trajectory paths are dominated by the North American monsoon (NAM) anticyclonic circulation. This connection suggests that ice is convectively transported to the overworld stratosphere in OT events and subsequently sublimated; such events may irreversibly enhance stratospheric water vapor in the summer over Mexico and the United States. A regional context is provided by water observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS).

  13. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-01-15

    The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. (orig.)

  14. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bohua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kinter, James L.; Wu, Zhaohua; Kumar, Arun

    2012-01-01

    The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  15. ATMOS Stratospheric Deuterated Water and Implications for Tropospheric-Stratospheric Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Irion, Fredrick W.; Yung, Yuk L.; Gunson, Michael R.

    1996-01-01

    Measurements of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water by the ATMOS instrument are used to infer the convective history of stratospheric air. The average water vapor entering the stratosphere is found to be highly depleted of deuterium, with delta-D(sub w) of -670 +/- 80 (67% deuterium loss). Model calculations predict, however, that under conditions of thermodynamic equilibrium, dehydration to stratospheric mixing ratios should produce stronger depletion to delta-D(sub w) of -800 to 900 (80-90% deuterium loss). Deuterium enrichment of water vapor in ascending parcels can occur only in conditions of rapid convection; enrichments persisting into the stratosphere require that those conditions continue to near-tropopause altitudes. We conclude that either the predominant source of water vapor to the uppermost troposphere is enriched convective water, most likely evaporated cloud ice, or troposphere-stratosphere transport occurs closely associated with tropical deep convection.

  16. Laboratory Investigations of Stratospheric Halogen Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, Paul H.; Nicovich, J. Michael; Stickel, Robert E.; Hynes, Anthony J.

    1997-01-01

    A final report for the NASA-supported project on laboratory investigations of stratospheric halogen chemistry is presented. In recent years, this project has focused on three areas of research: (1) kinetic, mechanistic, and thermochemical studies of reactions which produce weakly bound chemical species of atmospheric interest; (2) development of flash photolysis schemes for studying radical-radical reactions of stratospheric interest; and (3) photochemistry studies of interest for understanding stratospheric chemistry. The first section of this paper contains a discussion of work which has not yet been published. All subsequent chapters contain reprints of published papers that acknowledge support from this grant.

  17. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 ( 3.3 Ma) in the southern hemisphere: constraining the climatic drivers of a short-term glaciation event during the Pliocene warm Period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vleeschouwer, D.; Auer, G.; Bogus, K.; Groeneveld, J.; Henderiks, J.; Jatiningrum, R. S.; Christensen, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate was characterized by intriguing climate variability during the Late Pliocene (3.6 to 2.59 Ma): a brief (<100 kyr) but intense glaciation (MIS M2) interrupted the relatively warm climate state around 3.3 Ma. Until today, different hypotheses exist to explain why this glaciation event was so intense, and why the global climate system returned to warm Pliocene conditions relatively quickly. One of these proposed mechanisms is a reduced equator-to-pole heat transfer, in response to a tectonically reduced Indonesian Throughflow (ITF; De Schepper et al., 2014; Karas et al., 2011a, b). However, the scarcity of orbital-scale continuous climate archives in the outflow of the Indonesian Seaway hampers testing this hypothesis. To assess the supposed relationship between mid-Pliocene glaciations and latitudinal heat transport through the Indonesian Throughflow, we constructed a 3-kyr resolution planktonic δ18OG.sacculiferrecord for the 3.9 - 2.7 Ma interval from Site U1463 (18°59'S, 117°37'E; Northwestern Australian Shelf; IODP Expedition 356 "Indonesian Throughflow"). The U1463 oxygen isotope record concurs exceptionally well with the sea surface temperature (SST) record from Site 806 (0°19'N, 159°22'E) in the West Pacific Warm Pool (Wara et al., 2005), even during MIS M2. Hence, Site U1463 suggests an uninterrupted ITF signal during Pliocene glaciations. Surprisingly though, the U1463 δ18OG.sacculifer record exhibits a 0.5‰ offset with the nearby Site 763 record (20°35'S, 112°12'E) around MIS M2. This implies that Site 763, which lies a bit further offshore than U1463, fits better with Indian Ocean SST records (e.g. Site 214; Karas et al., 2009) across MIS M2. In conclusion, the U1463 data reveal that heat-transport through the Indonesian Throughflow did not shut down completely during MIS M2. However, its intensity decreased during MIS M2, causing Site 763 to temporarily reflect an Indian Ocean, rather than an ITF signal. References De Schepper, S

  18. Solar research with stratospheric balloons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Manuel; Wittmann, Axel D.

    Balloons, driven by hot air or some gas lighter than air, were the first artificial machines able to lift payloads (including humans) from the ground. After some pioneering flights the study of the physical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere constituted the first scientific target. A bit later astronomers realized that the turbulence of the atmospheric layers above their ground-based telescopes deteriorated the image quality, and that balloons were an appropriate means to overcome, total or partially, this problem. Some of the most highly-resolved photographs and spectrograms of the sun during the 20th century were actually obtained by balloon-borne telescopes from the stratosphere. Some more recent projects of solar balloon astronomy will also be described.

  19. Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

    2014-12-01

    The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This

  20. THERMAL AND CHEMICAL STRUCTURE VARIATIONS IN TITAN'S STRATOSPHERE DURING THE CASSINI MISSION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bampasidis, Georgios; Coustenis, A.; Vinatier, S. [Laboratoire d' Etudes Spatiales et d' Instrumentation en Astrophysique (LESIA), Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Paris-Diderot, 5, place Jules Janssen, F-92195 Meudon Cedex (France); Achterberg, R. K. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Lavvas, P. [GSMA, Universite Reims Champagne-Ardenne, F-51687 Reims Cedex 2 (France); Nixon, C. A.; Jennings, D. E.; Flasar, F. M.; Carlson, R. C.; Romani, P. N.; Guandique, E. A. [Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Teanby, N. A. [School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ (United Kingdom); Moussas, X.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Stamogiorgos, S., E-mail: gbabasid@phys.uoa.gr [Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimioupolis, GR 15783 Zographos, Athens (Greece)

    2012-12-01

    We have developed a line-by-line Atmospheric Radiative Transfer for Titan code that includes the most recent laboratory spectroscopic data and haze descriptions relative to Titan's stratosphere. We use this code to model Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer data taken during the numerous Titan flybys from 2006 to 2012 at surface-intercepting geometry in the 600-1500 cm{sup -1} range for latitudes from 50 Degree-Sign S to 50 Degree-Sign N. We report variations in temperature and chemical composition in the stratosphere during the Cassini mission, before and after the Northern Spring Equinox (NSE). We find indication for a weakening of the temperature gradient with warming of the stratosphere and cooling of the lower mesosphere. In addition, we infer precise concentrations for the trace gases and their main isotopologues and find that the chemical composition in Titan's stratosphere varies significantly with latitude during the 6 years investigated here, with increased mixing ratios toward the northern latitudes. In particular, we monitor and quantify the amplitude of a maximum enhancement of several gases observed at northern latitudes up to 50 Degree-Sign N around mid-2009, at the time of the NSE. We find that this rise is followed by a rapid decrease in chemical inventory in 2010 probably due to a weakening north polar vortex with reduced lateral mixing across the vortex boundary.

  1. On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chiodo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere with regard to temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 \\unit{yr} solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple linear regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. The novel regression approach shows that most of the apparent solar-induced lower-stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. This is caused by the alignment of these eruptions with periods of high solar activity. While it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr simulation. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambiguously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

  2. Lifetime and production rate of NOx in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in the polar spring/summer after the solar proton event in October–November 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Friederich

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We present altitude-dependent lifetimes of NOx, determined with MIPAS/ENVISAT (the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding/the European Environment Satellite, for the Southern polar region after the solar proton event in October–November 2003. Between 50° S and 90° S and decreasing in altitude they range from about two days at 64 km to about 20 days at 44 km. The lifetimes are controlled by transport, mixing and photochemistry. We infer estimates of dynamical lifetimes by comparison of the observed decay to photochemical lifetimes calculated with the SLIMCAT 3-D Model. Photochemical loss contributes to the observed NOx depletion by 0.1% at 44 km, increasing with altitude to 45% at 64 km. In addition, we show the correlation of modelled ionization rates and observed NOx densities under consideration of the determined lifetimes of NOx, and calculate altitude-dependent effective production rates of NOx due to ionization. For that we compare ionization rates of the AIMOS data base with the MIPAS measurements from 15 October–31 December 2003. We derive effective NOx-production rates to be applied to the AIMOS ionization rates which range from about 0.2 NOx-molecules per ion pair at 44 km to 0.7 NOx-molecules per ion pair at 62 km. These effective production rates are considerably lower than predicted by box model simulations which could hint at an overestimation of the modelled ionization rates.

  3. Stratospheric chlorine injection by volcanic eruptions - HCl scavenging and implications for ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabazadeh, A.; Turco, R. P.

    1993-01-01

    Because the output of volatile chlorine during a major volcanic event can greatly exceed the annual anthropogenic emissions of chlorine to the atmosphere, the fate of volcanic chlorine must be known. Although numerous observations have shown that volcanoes do not significantly contribute to the stratospheric chlorine burden, no quantitative explanation has been published. Hydrogen chloride (HCl) scavenging processes during the early phases of a volcanic eruption are discussed. A plume dynamics and thermodynamics model is used to show that HCl removal in condensed supercooled water can reduce HCl vapor concentrations by up to four orders of magnitude, preventing substantial stratospheric chlorine injection.

  4. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2016-01-01

    Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

  5. Laboratory studies of stratospheric aerosol chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario J.

    1996-01-01

    In this report we summarize the results of the two sets of projects funded by the NASA grant NAG2-632, namely investigations of various thermodynamic and nucleation properties of the aqueous acid system which makes up stratospheric aerosols, and measurements of reaction probabilities directly on ice aerosols with sizes corresponding to those of polar stratospheric cloud particles. The results of these investigations are of importance for the assessment of the potential stratospheric effects of future fleets of supersonic aircraft. In particular, the results permit to better estimate the effects of increased amounts of water vapor and nitric acid (which forms from nitrogen oxides) on polar stratospheric clouds and on the chemistry induced by these clouds.

  6. Trajectory tracking control for underactuated stratospheric airship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zewei; Huo, Wei; Wu, Zhe

    2012-10-01

    Stratospheric airship is a new kind of aerospace system which has attracted worldwide developing interests for its broad application prospects. Based on the trajectory linearization control (TLC) theory, a novel trajectory tracking control method for an underactuated stratospheric airship is presented in this paper. Firstly, the TLC theory is described sketchily, and the dynamic model of the stratospheric airship is introduced with kinematics and dynamics equations. Then, the trajectory tracking control strategy is deduced in detail. The designed control system possesses a cascaded structure which consists of desired attitude calculation, position control loop and attitude control loop. Two sub-loops are designed for the position and attitude control loops, respectively, including the kinematics control loop and dynamics control loop. Stability analysis shows that the controlled closed-loop system is exponentially stable. Finally, simulation results for the stratospheric airship to track typical trajectories are illustrated to verify effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  7. Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Nowack

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM. Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality.

  8. Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer Johannes; Abraham, Nathan Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John Adrian

    2016-03-01

    Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM). Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality.

  9. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  10. Simulating the Snowball Stratosphere and Its Influence On CO2 Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, R. J.; Shaw, T.; Abbot, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    According to the snowball Earth hypothesis, a large quantity of CO2 must build up during an event in order to cause eventual deglaciation. One prediction of this model is a depletion in atmospheric oxygen-17 as a result of stratospheric chemical reactions, which has been observed in preserved barite minerals. This represents one of the most dramatic and compelling pieces of evidence in support of the snowball Earth hypothesis. The inference of anomalous atmospheric oxygen-17 based on measurements of barite minerals, however, was made by assuming that the stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange rate and mixing within the stratosphere were the same as the present. In this contribution we test these assumptions with simulations of modern and snowball atmospheric conditions using the global climate model ECHAM5. Our simulations are still running, but we will have results to report by December.

  11. Issues in Stratospheric Ozone Depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Steven Andrew

    Following the announcement of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985 there have arisen a multitude of questions pertaining to the nature and consequences of polar ozone depletion. This thesis addresses several of these specific questions, using both computer models of chemical kinetics and the Earth's radiation field as well as laboratory kinetic experiments. A coupled chemical kinetic-radiative numerical model was developed to assist in the analysis of in situ field measurements of several radical and neutral species in the polar and mid-latitude lower stratosphere. Modeling was used in the analysis of enhanced polar ClO, mid-latitude diurnal variation of ClO, and simultaneous measurements of OH, HO_2, H_2 O and O_3. Most importantly, such modeling was instrumental in establishing the link between the observed ClO and BrO concentrations in the Antarctic polar vortex and the observed rate of ozone depletion. The principal medical concern of stratospheric ozone depletion is that ozone loss will lead to the enhancement of ground-level UV-B radiation. Global ozone climatology (40^circS to 50^ circN latitude) was incorporated into a radiation field model to calculate the biologically accumulated dosage (BAD) of UV-B radiation, integrated over days, months, and years. The slope of the annual BAD as a function of latitude was found to correspond to epidemiological data for non-melanoma skin cancers for 30^circ -50^circN. Various ozone loss scenarios were investigated. It was found that a small ozone loss in the tropics can provide as much additional biologically effective UV-B as a much larger ozone loss at higher latitudes. Also, for ozone depletions of > 5%, the BAD of UV-B increases exponentially with decreasing ozone levels. An important key player in determining whether polar ozone depletion can propagate into the populated mid-latitudes is chlorine nitrate, ClONO_2 . As yet this molecule is only indirectly accounted for in computer models and field

  12. Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. McLandress

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper Hu et al. (2011 suggest that the recovery of stratospheric ozone during the first half of this century will significantly enhance free tropospheric and surface warming caused by the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases, with the effects being most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These surprising results are based on a multi-model analysis of CMIP3 model simulations with and without prescribed stratospheric ozone recovery. Hu et al. suggest that in order to properly quantify the tropospheric and surface temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery, it is necessary to run coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models with stratospheric ozone chemistry. The results of such an experiment are presented here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model. In contrast to Hu et al., we find a much smaller Northern Hemisphere tropospheric temperature response to ozone recovery, which is of opposite sign. We suggest that their result is an artifact of the incomplete removal of the large effect of greenhouse gas warming between the two different sets of models.

  13. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  14. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Meraner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  15. Intercomparison of AIRS and HIRDLS stratospheric gravity wave observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Catrin I.; Ern, Manfred; Hoffmann, Lars; Trinh, Quang Thai; Alexander, M. Joan

    2018-01-01

    We investigate stratospheric gravity wave observations by the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) aboard NASA's Aura satellite. AIRS operational temperature retrievals are typically not used for studies of gravity waves, because their vertical and horizontal resolution is rather limited. This study uses data of a high-resolution retrieval which provides stratospheric temperature profiles for each individual satellite footprint. Therefore the horizontal sampling of the high-resolution retrieval is 9 times better than that of the operational retrieval. HIRDLS provides 2-D spectral information of observed gravity waves in terms of along-track and vertical wavelengths. AIRS as a nadir sounder is more sensitive to short-horizontal-wavelength gravity waves, and HIRDLS as a limb sounder is more sensitive to short-vertical-wavelength gravity waves. Therefore HIRDLS is ideally suited to complement AIRS observations. A calculated momentum flux factor indicates that the waves seen by AIRS contribute significantly to momentum flux, even if the AIRS temperature variance may be small compared to HIRDLS. The stratospheric wave structures observed by AIRS and HIRDLS often agree very well. Case studies of a mountain wave event and a non-orographic wave event demonstrate that the observed phase structures of AIRS and HIRDLS are also similar. AIRS has a coarser vertical resolution, which results in an attenuation of the amplitude and coarser vertical wavelengths than for HIRDLS. However, AIRS has a much higher horizontal resolution, and the propagation direction of the waves can be clearly identified in geographical maps. The horizontal orientation of the phase fronts can be deduced from AIRS 3-D temperature fields. This is a restricting factor for gravity wave analyses of limb measurements. Additionally, temperature variances with respect to stratospheric gravity wave activity are compared on a

  16. Intercomparison of AIRS and HIRDLS stratospheric gravity wave observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Meyer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate stratospheric gravity wave observations by the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS aboard NASA's Aqua satellite and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS aboard NASA's Aura satellite. AIRS operational temperature retrievals are typically not used for studies of gravity waves, because their vertical and horizontal resolution is rather limited. This study uses data of a high-resolution retrieval which provides stratospheric temperature profiles for each individual satellite footprint. Therefore the horizontal sampling of the high-resolution retrieval is 9 times better than that of the operational retrieval. HIRDLS provides 2-D spectral information of observed gravity waves in terms of along-track and vertical wavelengths. AIRS as a nadir sounder is more sensitive to short-horizontal-wavelength gravity waves, and HIRDLS as a limb sounder is more sensitive to short-vertical-wavelength gravity waves. Therefore HIRDLS is ideally suited to complement AIRS observations. A calculated momentum flux factor indicates that the waves seen by AIRS contribute significantly to momentum flux, even if the AIRS temperature variance may be small compared to HIRDLS. The stratospheric wave structures observed by AIRS and HIRDLS often agree very well. Case studies of a mountain wave event and a non-orographic wave event demonstrate that the observed phase structures of AIRS and HIRDLS are also similar. AIRS has a coarser vertical resolution, which results in an attenuation of the amplitude and coarser vertical wavelengths than for HIRDLS. However, AIRS has a much higher horizontal resolution, and the propagation direction of the waves can be clearly identified in geographical maps. The horizontal orientation of the phase fronts can be deduced from AIRS 3-D temperature fields. This is a restricting factor for gravity wave analyses of limb measurements. Additionally, temperature variances with respect to stratospheric gravity wave activity are

  17. An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s. Appendix K

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, Robert M.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Shia, Run-Lie; Yang, Yajaing; Zhou, Shuntai; Molnar, Gyula

    1997-01-01

    In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

  18. Intercomparison of stratospheric gravity wave observations with AIRS and IASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Hoffmann

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Gravity waves are an important driver for the atmospheric circulation and have substantial impact on weather and climate. Satellite instruments offer excellent opportunities to study gravity waves on a global scale. This study focuses on observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aqua satellite and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI onboard the European MetOp satellites. The main aim of this study is an intercomparison of stratospheric gravity wave observations of both instruments. In particular, we analyzed AIRS and IASI 4.3 μm brightness temperature measurements, which directly relate to stratospheric temperature. Three case studies showed that AIRS and IASI provide a clear and consistent picture of the temporal development of individual gravity wave events. Statistical comparisons based on a 5-year period of measurements (2008–2012 showed similar spatial and temporal patterns of gravity wave activity. However, the statistical comparisons also revealed systematic differences of variances between AIRS and IASI that we attribute to the different spatial measurement characteristics of both instruments. We also found differences between day- and nighttime data that are partly due to the local time variations of the gravity wave sources. While AIRS has been used successfully in many previous gravity wave studies, IASI data are applied here for the first time for that purpose. Our study shows that gravity wave observations from different hyperspectral infrared sounders such as AIRS and IASI can be directly related to each other, if instrument-specific characteristics such as different noise levels and spatial resolution and sampling are carefully considered. The ability to combine observations from different satellites provides an opportunity to create a long-term record, which is an exciting prospect for future climatological studies of stratospheric

  19. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  20. Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

    2017-12-01

    Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

  1. The Role of Overshooting Convection in Elevated Stratospheric Water Vapor over the Summertime Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, R. L.; Ray, E. A.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Bedka, K. M.; Schwartz, M. J.; Read, W. G.; Troy, R. F.

    2016-12-01

    The NASA ER-2 aircraft sampled the UTLS region over North America during the NASA Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) field mission. On four flights targeting convectively-influenced air parcels, in situ measurements of enhanced water vapor in the lower stratosphere over the summertime continental United States were made using the JPL Laser Hygrometer (JLH Mark2). Water vapor mixing ratios greater than 10 ppmv, twice the stratospheric background levels, were measured at pressure levels between 80 and 160 hPa. Through satellite observations and analysis, we make the connection between these in situ water measurements and overshooting cloud tops. The overshooting tops (OT) are identified from a SEAC4RS OT detection product based on satellite infrared window channel brightness temperature gradients. Back-trajectory analysis ties enhanced water to OT one to seven days prior to the intercept by the aircraft. The trajectory paths are dominated by the North American Monsoon (NAM) anticyclonic circulation. This connection suggests that ice is convectively transported to the overworld stratosphere in OT events and subsequently sublimated; such events may irreversibly enhance stratospheric water vapor in the summer over Mexico and the United States. Regional context is provided by water observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS).

  2. Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV Pathfinder

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Clean Air Act mandates NASA to monitor stratospheric ozone, and stratospheric aerosol measurements are vital to our understanding of climate.  Maintaining...

  3. Global warming and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonand, Frederic

    2015-01-01

    The macro-economic impacts of climate change and of policies to reduce carbon content should be moderate on a global basis for the planet - a few hundredths of a % of world GDP on an annual basis, but significant for some regions (Asia-Pacific notably). The probability of extreme climatic events justifies with effect from today the implementation of measures that will carry a cost in order to limit global warming. (author)

  4. Sources and sinks of stratospheric water vapor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1979-11-01

    A tutorial review of the understanding of stratospheric H 2 O and the processes controlling it is presented. Paradoxes posed by currently available observational data are cited and suggestions made as to how they might be resolved. Such resolution appears to require: that the bulk of our current data provides unrepresentative and misleading vertical and latitudinal H 2 O gradients immediately downstream from the tropical tropopause; and, that there exists within the troposphere a mechanism different from or in addition to the tropical tropopause cold trap for drying air to the mixing ratios found in the lower stratosphere. Satisfaction of these requirements will reconcile much heretofore puzzling observational data and will obviate the necessity for a stratospheric sink for H 2 O

  5. The chemistry of stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurylo, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Compelling observational evidence shows that the chemical composition of the atmosphere is changing on a global scale at a rapid rate. The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) 11 (CFCl 3 ) and 12 (CF 2 Cl 2 ) are currently increasing at rate ranging from 0.2 to 5% per year. The concentrations of other cases, including CFC 113 (C 2 F 3 Cl 3 ) and halons 121 (CF 2 ClBr) and 1301 (CF 3 Br), important in the ozone depletion and global warming issues, are also increasing (at even faster rates). These changes in atmospheric composition reflect, on one part, the metabolism of the biosphere and, on another, the broad range of influencing human activities, including industrial, agricultural, and combustion practices. The only known sources of the CFCs and halons are industrial production prior to their use as aerosol propellants, refrigerants, foam blowing agents, solvents, and fire retardants. One of our greatest difficulties in accurately predicting future changes in ozone or global warming is our inability to predict the future atmospheric concentrations of these gases. This paper discusses the role of the biosphere in regulating the emissions of gases such as CH 4 , CO 2 , N 2 O, and methyl chloride (CH 3 Cl) to the atmosphere as well as the most probable future industrial release rates of the CFCs, halons, N 2 O, carbon monoxide (CO), and CO 2 , which depend upon a variety of economic, social, and political factors

  6. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  7. New stratospheric UV/visible radiance measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Marceau

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available A stratospheric balloon was launched on 12 October 1986 from the "CNES" base at Aire sur l'Adour (France to record twilight radiance in the stratosphere. The near-UV and visible radiances were continuously monitored by a photometer during sunrise. Some observations are presented for different viewing azimuthal planes and viewing elevation angles. They show the influence of aerosols layers and clouds which can be also seen on related photographs. The results as a whole may be used for testing some radiative models, especially for twilight conditions.

  8. Equatorial waves in the stratosphere of Uranus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinson, David P.; Magalhaes, Julio A.

    1991-01-01

    Analyses of radio occultation data from Voyager 2 have led to the discovery and characterization of an equatorial wave in the Uranus stratosphere. The observed quasi-periodic vertical atmospheric density variations are in close agreement with theoretical predictions for a wave that propagates vertically through the observed background structure of the stratosphere. Quantitative comparisons between measurements obtained at immersion and at emersion yielded constraints on the meridional and zonal structure of the wave; the fact that the two sets of measurements are correlated suggests a wave of planetary scale. Two equatorial wave models are proposed for the wave.

  9. Slow coolant phaseout could worsen warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, April

    2018-03-01

    In the summer of 2016, temperatures in Phalodi, an old caravan town on a dry plain in northwestern India, reached a blistering 51°C—a record high during a heat wave that claimed more than 1600 lives across the country. Wider access to air conditioning (AC) could have prevented many deaths—but only 8% of India's 249 million households have AC. As the nation's economy booms, that figure could rise to 50% by 2050. And that presents a dilemma: As India expands access to a life-saving technology, it must comply with international mandates—the most recent imposed just last fall—to eliminate coolants that harm stratospheric ozone or warm the atmosphere.

  10. American lay conceptions of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kempton, W.

    1990-01-01

    Ethnographic interviews were conducted with Americans from all walks of life in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it. Most informants had heard of the greenhouse effect, but they held fundamental misconceptions that were shared across individuals. Many of these misconceptions derive from the process of fitting a new concept, global warming, into four preexisting categories: stratospheric ozone depletion, plant photosynthesis, tropospheric pollution, and personally-experienced seasonal and geographic temperature variation. Informants readily accepted that human activities could change climate and weather patterns. Indeed, most reported they had already observed changes in weather patterns, some citing space shots or atomic bomb testing as causes. Few informants connected the greenhouse effect to energy or fuel consumption, although the connection was easily understood when explained by the interviewers

  11. Large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the MAP/WINE campaign winter 1983 to 1984 in comparison with other winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzoldt, K.

    1989-04-01

    For the MAP/WINE winter temperature and wind measurements of rockets were combined with SSU radiances (Stratospheric Sounder Unit onboard the NOAA satellites) and stratopause heights from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) to get a retrieved data set including all available information. By means of this data set a hemispheric geopotential height, temperature and geostrophic wind fields eddy transports for wave mean flow interaction and potential vorticity for the interpretation of nonlinear wave breaking could be computed. Wave reflection at critical lines was investigated with respect of stratospheric warmings. The meridional gradient of the potential vorticity and focusing of wave activity is compared with derived data from satellite observations during other winters.

  12. Composite Materials With Uncured Epoxy Matrix Exposed in Stratosphere During NASA Stratospheric Balloon Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondyurin, Alexey; Kondyurina, Irina; Bilek, Marcela; de Groh, Kim K.

    2013-01-01

    A cassette of uncured composite materials with epoxy resin matrixes was exposed in the stratosphere (40 km altitude) over three days. Temperature variations of -76 to 32.5C and pressure up to 2.1 torr were recorded during flight. An analysis of the chemical structure of the composites showed, that the polymer matrix exposed in the stratosphere becomes crosslinked, while the ground control materials react by way of polymerization reaction of epoxy groups. The space irradiations are considered to be responsible for crosslinking of the uncured polymers exposed in the stratosphere. The composites were cured on Earth after landing. Analysis of the cured composites showed that the polymer matrix remains active under stratospheric conditions. The results can be used for predicting curing processes of polymer composites in a free space environment during an orbital space flight.

  13. In-situ observation of Asian pollution transported into the Arctic lowermost stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Roiger

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available On a research flight on 10 July 2008, the German research aircraft Falcon sampled an air mass with unusually high carbon monoxide (CO, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN and water vapour (H2O mixing ratios in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere. The air mass was encountered twice at an altitude of 11.3 km, ~800 m above the dynamical tropopause. In-situ measurements of ozone, NO, and NOy indicate that this layer was a mixed air mass containing both air from the troposphere and stratosphere. Backward trajectory and Lagrangian particle dispersion model analysis suggest that the Falcon sampled the top of a polluted air mass originating from the coastal regions of East Asia. The anthropogenic pollution plume experienced strong up-lift in a warm conveyor belt (WCB located over the Russian east-coast. Subsequently the Asian air mass was transported across the North Pole into the sampling area, elevating the local tropopause by up to ~3 km. Mixing with surrounding Arctic stratospheric air most likely took place during the horizontal transport when the tropospheric streamer was stretched into long and narrow filaments. The mechanism illustrated in this study possibly presents an important pathway to transport pollution into the polar tropopause region.

  14. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  15. Development of the Multi-Angle Stratospheric Aerosol Radiometer (MASTAR) Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLand, M. T.; Colarco, P. R.; Kowalewski, M. G.; Gorkavyi, N.; Ramos-Izquierdo, L.

    2017-12-01

    Aerosol particles in the stratosphere ( 15-25 km altitude), both produced naturally and perturbed by volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic emissions, continue to be a source of significant uncertainty in the Earth's energy budget. Stratospheric aerosols can offset some of the warming effects caused by greenhouse gases. These aerosols are currently monitored using measurements from the Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP) instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite. In order to improve the sensitivity and spatial coverage of these aerosol data, we are developing an aerosol-focused compact version of the OMPS LP sensor called Multi-Angle Stratospheric Aerosol Radiometer (MASTAR) to fly on a 3U Cubesat satellite, using a NASA Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) grant. This instrument will make limb viewing measurements of the atmosphere in multiple directions simultaneously, and uses only a few selected wavelengths to reduce size and cost. An initial prototype version has been constructed using NASA GSFC internal funding and tested in the laboratory. Current design work is targeted towards a preliminary field test in Spring 2018. We will discuss the scientific benefits of MASTAR and the status of the project.

  16. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  17. Stratospheric tritium sampling. Final progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, A.S.; Oestlund, H.G.

    1985-09-01

    Stratospheric tritium sampling was part of Project Airstream (sponsored by the US Department of Energy) between 1975 and 1983. Data from the final deployment in November 1983 are reported here, and the results of the 9 years of effort are summarized. 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Stratospheric General Circulation with Chemistry Model (SGCCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, Richard B.; Douglass, Anne R.; Geller, Marvin A.; Kaye, Jack A.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Stolarski, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

  19. First Successful Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Hamilton, K.; Osprey, S.; Kawatani, Y.; Nishimoto, E.

    2018-02-01

    In early 2016 the quasi-biennial oscillation in tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted by an anomalous easterly jet centered at 40 hPa, a development that was completely missed by all operational extended range weather forecast systems. This event and its predictability are investigated through 40 day ensemble hindcasts using a global model notable for its sophisticated representation of the upper atmosphere. Integrations starting at different times throughout January 2016—just before and during the initial development of the easterly jet—were performed. All integrations simulated the unusual developments in the stratospheric mean wind, despite considerable differences in other aspects of the flow evolution among the ensemble members, notably in the evolution of the winter polar vortex and the day-to-day variations in extratropical Rossby waves. Key to prediction of this event is simulating the slowly evolving mean winds in the winter subtropics that provide a waveguide for Rossby waves propagating from the winter hemisphere.

  20. Major Influence of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer During the Last Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernier, Jean-Paul; Thomason, Larry W.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Bourassa, Adam; Pelon, Jacques; Garnier, Anne; Hauchecorne, A.; Blanot, L.; Trepte, Charles R.; Degenstein, Doug; hide

    2011-01-01

    The variability of stratospheric aerosol loading between 1985 and 2010 is explored with measurements from SAGE II, CALIPSO, GOMOS/ENVISAT, and OSIRIS/Odin space-based instruments. We find that, following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, stratospheric aerosol levels increased by as much as two orders of magnitude and only reached background levels between 1998 and 2002. From 2002 onwards, a systematic increase has been reported by a number of investigators. Recently, the trend, based on ground-based lidar measurements, has been tentatively attributed to an increase of SO2 entering the stratosphere associated with coal burning in Southeast Asia. However, we demonstrate with these satellite measurements that the observed trend is mainly driven by a series of moderate but increasingly intense volcanic eruptions primarily at tropical latitudes. These events injected sulfur directly to altitudes between 18 and 20 km. The resulting aerosol particles are slowly lofted into the middle stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation and are eventually transported to higher latitudes.

  1. Stratospheric experiments on curing of composite materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudinov, Viacheslav; Kondyurin, Alexey; Svistkov, Alexander L.; Efremov, Denis; Demin, Anton; Terpugov, Viktor; Rusakov, Sergey

    2016-07-01

    Future space exploration requires a large light-weight structure for habitats, greenhouses, space bases, space factories and other constructions. A new approach enabling large-size constructions in space relies on the use of the technology of polymerization of fiber-filled composites with a curable polymer matrix applied in the free space environment on Erath orbit. In orbit, the material is exposed to high vacuum, dramatic temperature changes, plasma of free space due to cosmic rays, sun irradiation and atomic oxygen (in low Earth orbit), micrometeorite fluence, electric charging and microgravitation. The development of appropriate polymer matrix composites requires an understanding of the chemical processes of polymer matrix curing under the specific free space conditions to be encountered. The goal of the stratospheric flight experiment is an investigation of the effect of the stratospheric conditions on the uncured polymer matrix of the composite material. The unique combination of low residual pressure, high intensity UV radiation including short-wave UV component, cosmic rays and other aspects associated with solar irradiation strongly influences the chemical processes in polymeric materials. We have done the stratospheric flight experiments with uncured composites (prepreg). A balloon with payload equipped with heater, temperature/pressure/irradiation sensors, microprocessor, carrying the samples of uncured prepreg has been launched to stratosphere of 25-30 km altitude. After the flight, the samples have been tested with FTIR, gel-fraction, tensile test and DMA. The effect of cosmic radiation has been observed. The composite was successfully cured during the stratospheric flight. The study was supported by RFBR grants 12-08-00970 and 14-08-96011.

  2. Polar night vortex breakdown and large-scale stirring in the southern stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camara, Alvaro de la [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mechoso, C.R. [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Ide, K. [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Collage Park, MD (United States); Walterscheid, R. [The Aerospace Corporation, Space Sciences Department, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Schubert, G. [University of California, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2010-11-15

    The present paper examines the vortex breakdown and large-scale stirring during the final warming of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the spring of 2005. A unique set of in situ observations collected by 27 superpressure balloons (SPBs) is used. The balloons, which were launched from McMurdo, Antarctica, by the Strateole/VORCORE project, drifted for several weeks on two different isopycnic levels in the lower stratosphere. We describe balloon trajectories and compare them with simulations obtained on the basis of the velocity field from the GEOS-5 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses performed with and without VORCORE data. To gain insight on the mechanisms responsible for the horizontal transport of air inside and outside the well-isolated vortex we examine the balloon trajectories in the framework of the Lagrangian properties of the stratospheric flow. Coherent structures of the flow are visualized by computing finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLE). A combination of isentropic analysis and FTLE distributions reveals that air is stripped away from the vortex's interior as stable manifolds eventually cross the vortex's edge. It is shown that two SPBs escaped from the vortex within high potential vorticity tongues that developed in association with wave breaking at locations along the vortex's edge where forward and backward FTLE maxima approximately intersect. The trajectories of three SPBs flying as a group at the same isopycnic level are examined and their behavior is interpreted in reference to the FTLE field. These results support the concept of stable and unstable manifolds governing transport of air masses across the periphery of the stratospheric polar vortex. (orig.)

  3. Comparison of stratospheric temperature profiles from a ground-based microwave radiometer with lidar, radiosonde and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navas-Guzmán, Francisco; Kämpfer, Niklaus; Haefele, Alexander; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain

    2015-04-01

    The importance of the knowledge of the temperature structure in the atmosphere has been widely recognized. Temperature is a key parameter for dynamical, chemical and radiative processes in the atmosphere. The cooling of the stratosphere is an indicator for climate change as it provides evidence of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing just like surface warming ( [1] and references therein). However, our understanding of the observed stratospheric temperature trend and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances remains limited. Stratospheric long-term datasets are sparse and obtained trends differ from one another [1]. Therefore it is important that in the future such datasets are generated. Different techniques allow to measure stratospheric temperature profiles as radiosonde, lidar or satellite. The main advantage of microwave radiometers against these other instruments is a high temporal resolution with a reasonable good spatial resolution. Moreover, the measurement at a fixed location allows to observe local atmospheric dynamics over a long time period, which is crucial for climate research. TEMPERA (TEMPERature RAdiometer) is a newly developed ground-based microwave radiometer designed, built and operated at the University of Bern. The instrument and the retrieval of temperature profiles has been described in detail in [2]. TEMPERA is measuring a pressure broadened oxygen line at 53.1 GHz in order to determine stratospheric temperature profiles. The retrieved profiles of TEMPERA cover an altitude range of approximately 20 to 45 km with a vertical resolution in the order of 15 km. The lower limit is given by the instrumental baseline and the bandwidth of the measured spectrum. The upper limit is given by the fact that above 50 km the oxygen lines are splitted by the Zeeman effect in the terrestrial magnetic field. In this study we present a comparison of stratospheric

  4. A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angus J Ferraro

    Full Text Available Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

  5. A Risk-Based Framework for Assessing the Effectiveness of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Angus J.; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.; Highwood, Eleanor J.

    2014-01-01

    Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product. PMID:24533155

  6. Changing transport processes in the stratosphere by radiative heating of sulfate aerosols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Niemeier

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2 into the stratosphere to form an artificial stratospheric aerosol layer is discussed as an option for solar radiation management. Sulfate aerosol scatters solar radiation and absorbs infrared radiation, which warms the stratospheric sulfur layer. Simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5-HAM, including aerosol microphysics, show consequences of this warming, including changes of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO in the tropics. The QBO slows down after an injection of 4 Tg(S yr−1 and completely shuts down after an injection of 8 Tg(S yr−1. Transport of species in the tropics and sub-tropics depends on the phase of the QBO. Consequently, the heated aerosol layer not only impacts the oscillation of the QBO but also the meridional transport of the sulfate aerosols. The stronger the injection, the stronger the heating and the simulated impact on the QBO and equatorial wind systems. With increasing injection rate the velocity of the equatorial jet streams increases, and the less sulfate is transported out of the tropics. This reduces the global distribution of sulfate and decreases the radiative forcing efficiency of the aerosol layer by 10 to 14 % compared to simulations with low vertical resolution and without generated QBO. Increasing the height of the injection increases the radiative forcing only for injection rates below 10 Tg(S yr−1 (8–18 %, a much smaller value than the 50 % calculated previously. Stronger injection rates at higher levels even result in smaller forcing than the injections at lower levels.

  7. Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsolini, Yvan J.; Limpasuvan, Varavut; Pérot, Kristell; Espy, Patrick; Hibbins, Robert; Lossow, Stefan; Raaholt Larsson, Katarina; Murtagh, Donal

    2017-03-01

    Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4°N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days.

  8. Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.

    2017-12-01

    The strength of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in a changing climate has been extensively studied, but the relative importance of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving the BDC changes remains uncertain. This study separates the impacts of GHG and stratospheric ozone forcings on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM). The experiment compares a set of controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the GEOS CCM, in which either GHGs, or stratospheric ozone, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and stratospheric ozone have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease. It is also found that GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: 1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup, that inhibits young mid-latitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex; and 2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling, that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

  9. The stratospheric ozone and the ozone layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez Jesus Antonio

    2000-01-01

    An overview is presented of the principal characteristics of the stratospheric ozone in the Earth's atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the tropics and the ozone hole over the poles. Some effects produced in the atmosphere as a consequence of the different human activities will be described, and some data on stratospheric ozone will be shown. We point out the existence of a nucleus of least ozone in the tropics, stretching from South America to central Africa, with annual mean values less than 240 DU, a value lower than in the middle latitudes and close to the mean values at the South Pole. The existence of such a minimum is confirmed by mean values from measurements made on satellites or with earthbound instruments, for different sectors in Colombia, like Medellin, Bogota and Leticia

  10. Stratospheric ozone: an introduction to its study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet, M.

    1975-01-01

    An analysis is made of the various reactions in which ozone and atomic oxygen are involved in the stratosphere. At the present time, hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine compounds in the ranges parts per million, parts per billion, and parts per trillion may have significant chemical effects. In the upper stratosphere, above the ozone peak, where there is no strong departure from photochemical equilibrium conditions, the action of hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl radicals of nitrogen dioxide and chlorine monoxide on atomic oxygen and of atomic chlorine on ozone can be introduced. A precise determination of their exact effects requires knowledge of the vertical distribution of the H 2 O, CH 4 , and H 2 dissociation by reaction of these molecules with electronically excited oxygen atom O( 1 D); the ratio of the OH and HO 2 concentrations and their absolute values, which depend on insufficiently known rate coefficients; the various origins of nitric oxide production, with their vertical distributions related to latitude and season; and the various sources giving different chlorine compounds that may be dissociated in the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, below the ozone peak, there is no important photochemical production of O 3 , but there exist various possibilities of transport. The predictability of the action of chemical reactions depends strongly on important interactions between OH and HO 2 radicals with CO and NO, respectively, which affect the ratio n(OH)/n(HO 2 ) at the tropopause level; between OH and NO 2 , which lead to the formation of nitric acid with its downward transport toward the troposphere; between NO and HO 2 , which lead to NO 2 and its subsequent photodissociation; between ClO and NO, which also lead to NO 2 and become more important than the reaction of ClO with O; and between Cl and various molecules, such as CH 4 and H 2 , which lead to HCl with its downward transportation toward the troposphere

  11. Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition II: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, James G.; Toon, Owen B.

    1993-11-01

    The sudden onset of ozone depletion in the antarctic vortex set a precedent for both the time scale and the severity of global change. The Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE), staged from Punta Arenas, Chile, in 1987, established that CFCs, halons, and methyl bromide, the dominant sources of chlorine and bromine radicals in the stratosphere, control the rate of ozone destruction over the Antarctic; that the vortex is depleted in reactive nitrogen and water vapor; and that diabatic cooling during the Antarctic winter leads to subsidence within the vortex core, importing air from higher altitudes and lower latitudes. This last conclusion is based on observed dramatic distortion in the tracer fields, most notably N2O.In 1989, the first Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-I), staged from Stavanger, Norway, and using the same aircraft employed for AAOE (the NASA ER-2 and the NASA DC-8), discovered that while NOx and to some degree NOy were perturbed within the arctic vortex, there was little evidence for desiccation. Under these (in contrast to the antarctic) marginally perturbed conditions, however, ClO was found to be dramatically enhanced such that a large fraction of the available (inorganic) chlorine resided in the form of ClO and its dimer ClOOCl.This leaves two abiding issues for the northern hemisphere and the mission of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-II): (1) Will significant ozone erosion occur within the arctic vortex in the next ten years as chlorine loading in the stratosphere exceeds four parts per billion by volume? (2) Which mechanisms are responsible for the observed ozone erosion poleward of 30°N in the winter/spring northern hemisphere reported in satellite observations?

  12. Vertical sounding balloons for stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommereau, J. P.

    The use of vertical sounding balloons for stratospheric photochemistry studies is illustrated by the use of a vertical piloted gas balloon for the search of NO2 diurnal variations. It is shown that the use of montgolfieres (hot air balloons) can enhance the vertical sounding technique. Particular attention is given to a sun-heated montgolfiere and to the more sophisticated infrared montgolfiere that is able to perform three to four vertical excursions per day and to remain aloft for weeks or months.

  13. Stratospheric chlorine: Blaming it on nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taube, G.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the bitter public debate over ozone depletion has centered on the claim that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) pale into insignificance alongside natural sources of chlorine in the stratosphere. If so, goes the argument, chlorine could not be depleting ozone as atmospheric scientists claim, because the natural sources have been around since time immemorial, and the ozone layer is still there. The claim, put forward in a book by Rogelio Maduro and Ralf Schauerhammer, has since been touted by former Atomic Energy Commissioner Dixy Lee Ray and talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, and it forms the basis of much of the backlash now being felt by atmospheric scientists. The argument is simple: Maduro and Schauerhammer calculate that 600 million tons of chlorine enters the atmosphere annually from seawater, 36 million tons from volcanoes, 8.4 million tons from biomass burning, and 5 million tons from ocean biota. In contrast, CFCs account for a mere 750,000 tons of atmospheric chlorine a year. Besides disputing the numbers, scientists have both theoretical and observational bases for doubting that much of this chlorine is getting into the stratosphere, where it could affect the ozone layer. Linwood Callis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center points out one crucial problem with the argument: Chlorine from natural sources is soluble, and so it gets rained out of the lower atmosphere. CFCs, in contrast, are insoluble and inert and thus make it to the stratosphere to release their chlorine. What's more, observations of stratospheric chemistry don't support the idea that natural sources are contributing much to the chlorine there

  14. Warm Mix Asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-17

    State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

  15. The 'surf zone' in the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, M. E.; Palmer, T. N.

    Synoptic, coarse-grain, isentropic maps of Ertel's potential vorticity Q for the northern middle stratosphere, estimated using a large-Richardson-number approximation, are presented for a number of days in January-February 1979, together with some related isentropic trajectory calculations The effects of substituting FGGE for NMC base data are noted, as well as some slight corrections to maps published earlier. The combined evidence from the observations and from dynamical models strongly indicates the existence of planetary-wave breaking, a process in which material contours are rapidly and irreversibly deformed. In the winter stratosphere this occurs most spectacularly in a gigantic 'nonlinear critical layer', or 'surf zone', which surrounds the main polar vortex, and which tends to erode the vortex when wave amplitudes become large. Some of the FGGE-based Q maps suggest that we may be seeing glimpses of local dynamical instabilities and vortex-rollup phenomena within breaking planetary waves. Related phenomena in the troposphere are discussed. An objective definition of the area A( t) of the main vortex, as it appears on isentropic Q maps, is proposed. A smoothed time series of daily values of A( t) should be a statistically powerful 'circulation index' for the state of the winter-time middle stratosphere, which avoids the loss of information incurred by Eulerian space and time averaging.

  16. Stratospheric concentrations of N2O in July 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, P.W.; Lagomarsino, R.J.; Schonberg, M.

    1977-01-01

    The first measurement of the hemispheric distribution of N 2 O concentrations in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere is reported for July 1975. This distribution is similar to those of CCl 3 F and SF 6 , although N 2 O is more stable in the stratosphere than either of the other trace gases. The inventory of N 2 O in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in July 1975 against which future observations can be compared is 136 Tg

  17. Medieval Irish chronicles reveal persistent volcanic forcing of severe winter cold events, 431–1649 CE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ludlow, Francis; Stine, Alexander R; Leahy, Paul; Kiely, Gerard; Murphy, Enda; Mayewski, Paul A; Taylor, David; Killen, James; Hennessy, Mark; Baillie, Michael G L

    2013-01-01

    Explosive volcanism resulting in stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosol is a major driver of regional to global climatic variability on interannual and longer timescales. However, much of our knowledge of the climatic impact of volcanism derives from the limited number of eruptions that have occurred in the modern period during which meteorological instrumental records are available. We present a uniquely long historical record of severe short-term cold events from Irish chronicles, 431–1649 CE, and test the association between cold event occurrence and explosive volcanism. Thirty eight (79%) of 48 volcanic events identified in the sulfate deposition record of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice-core correspond to 37 (54%) of 69 cold events in this 1219 year period. We show this association to be statistically significant at the 99.7% confidence level, revealing both the consistency of response to explosive volcanism for Ireland’s climatically sensitive Northeast Atlantic location and the large proportional contribution of volcanism to historic cold event frequencies here. Our results expose, moreover, the extent to which volcanism has impacted winter-season climate for the region, and can help to further resolve the complex spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere winter-season cooling versus warming after major eruptions. (letter)

  18. Global distribution of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Steinbrecht

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This study gives an overview of interannual variations of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature. It is based on newer and longer records from the 1979 to 2001 Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (TOMS and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV instruments, and on US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalyses. Multiple linear least squares regression is used to attribute variations to various natural and anthropogenic explanatory variables. Usually, maps of total ozone and 50 hPa temperature variations look very similar, reflecting a very close coupling between the two. As a rule of thumb, a 10 Dobson Unit (DU change in total ozone corresponds to a 1 K change of 50 hPa temperature. Large variations come from the linear trend term, up to -30 DU or -1.5 K/decade, from terms related to polar vortex strength, up to 50 DU or 5 K (typical, minimum to maximum, from tropospheric meteorology, up to 30 DU or 3 K, or from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K. The 11-year solar cycle, up to 25 DU or 2.5 K, or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, up to 10 DU or 1 K, are contributing smaller variations. Stratospheric aerosol after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to warming up to 3 K at low latitudes and to ozone depletion up to 40 DU at high latitudes. Variations attributed to QBO, polar vortex strength, and to a lesser degree to ENSO, exhibit an inverse correlation between low latitudes and higher latitudes. Variations related to the solar cycle or 400 hPa temperature, however, have the same sign over most of the globe. Variations are usually zonally symmetric at low and mid-latitudes, but asymmetric at high latitudes. There, position and strength of the stratospheric anti-cyclones over the Aleutians and south of Australia appear to vary with the phases of solar cycle, QBO or ENSO.

  19. Small volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, David M.

    2012-09-01

    (Rampino and Self 1984, Pyle et al 1996, Self and Rampino 2012). But as yet, there is little evidence for the consequences of this scale of eruption for the climate system (Miles et al 2004), and few data against which to test simulations of stratospheric sulfur-injection 'geoengineering' scenarios of a similar scale and frequency (e.g. English et al 2012). A hint of the new volcano-observing capability came during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. For a few days in April 2010 meteorological conditions, coupled with a dramatic increase in volcanic ash production, led to the wide dispersal of fine volcanic particles across northern Europe; an event which was widely tracked by ground-based and satellite-borne instruments, augmented by in situ measurements from balloons and aircraft (Bennett et al 2010, Flentje et al 2010, Harrison et al 2010, Stohl et al 2011). Despite the interest in Eyjafjallajökull at the time, this was, geologically, only a very modest eruption with limited sulfur emissions and an impact restricted mainly to the regional troposphere (e.g. Thomas and Prata 2011, Walker et al 2012). Then, in June 2011, a previously dormant volcano in north-east Africa began to erupt violently. Little is known about Nabro, which is a partially collapsed volcano that straddles the Eritrea-Ethiopia border, and has had no known historical activity (Wiart and Oppenheimer 2005). Despite the remote location, and lack of prior warning, the event and its aftermath were remarkably well captured by remote-sensing instruments, as demonstrated in the new letter by Sawamura et al (2012). Using both ground-based and satellite-borne laser-ranging (lidar) data, Sawamura et al (2012) were able to extract detailed information about the nature of the volcanic aerosol layer, and its spread around the globe. The eruption started strongly, with substantial ash plumes for the first 48 h, rising to 9-14 km altitude (Smithsonian Institution 2011, Bourassa et al 2012), that carried at

  20. Millimeter wave spectroscopic measurements of stratospheric and mesospheric constituents over the Italian Alps: stratospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Romaniello

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of rotational lines emitted by middle atmospheric trace gases have been carried out from the Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9°N, 7.7°E, elev. 3500 m by means of a Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS. Observations of species such as O3, HNO3, CO, N2O, HCN, and HDO took place during 4 winter periods, from February 2004 to March 2007, for a total of 116 days of measurements grouped in about 18 field campaigns. By studying the pressure-broadened shape of emission lines the vertical distribution of the observed constituents is retrieved within an altitude range of ?17-75 km, constrained by the 600 MHz pass band and the 65 kHz spectral resolution of the back-end spectrometer. This work discusses the behavior of stratospheric O3 during the entire period of operation at Testa Grigia. Mid-latitude O3 columnar content as estimated using GBMS measurements can vary by large amounts over a period of very few days, with the largest variations observed in December 2005, February 2006, and March 2006, confirming that the northern winter of 2005-2006 was characterized by a particularly intense planetary wave activity. The largest rapid variation from maximum to minimum O3 column values over Testa Grigia took place in December 2006 and reached a relative value of 72% with respect to the average column content for that period. During most GBMS observation times much of the variability is concentrated in the column below 20 km, with tropospheric weather systems and advection of tropical tropospheric air into the lower stratosphere over Testa Grigia having a large impact on the observed variations in column contents. Nonetheless, a wide variability is also found in middle stratospheric GBMS O3 measurements, as expected for mid-latitude ozone. We find that O3 mixing ratios at ?32 km are very well correlated with the solar illumination experienced by air masses over the previous ?15 days, showing that already at 32 km

  1. An Investigation of Multi-Satellite Stratospheric Measurements on Tropospheric Weather Predictions over Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Min

    ' propagation. The major improvements made by the extended stratospheric layers and measurements are located in the tropopause. An averaged extra 5% forecast skill is obtained by raising the model lid from 10-mb to 1-mb. An extra 7% forecast skill is obtained in the tropospheric humidity by assimilating stratospheric measurements. Significant improvements in the tropopause and tropospheric predictions are observed when multi-satellite stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb are assimilated in regional NWP system. Major positive impacts on the tropospheric weather predictions are observed in the first 72-h forecast lead times due to the downward propagation of the microwave stratospheric measurements. A two-season comparison study shows that the assimilation of microwave stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb will lead to an adjusted stratospheric temperature distribution which may related to an adjusted BDC. Small impacts on the tropospheric general circulations are also found. The tropospheric forecast skills are slightly improved in response to the stratospheric initial conditions and adjusted tropospheric general circulations. For the prediction of heavy precipitation events, an extra 14% forecast skill is obtained when the microwave stratospheric measurements extend to 1-mb are assimilated. The results obtained in this thesis indicate that the assimilation of satellite microwave measurements has the advantages for short-term regional weather forecast using ensemble related data assimilation scheme. Also, this thesis proposed that the assimilation of microwave stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb can slightly improve the tropospheric weather forecast skills as a result of the tropospheric general circulations responded to the adjusted stratospheric initials.

  2. Conserving host–parasitoid interactions in a warming world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harvey, J.A.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) represents a major threat to biodiversity at all levels of organization. Attendant changes with climate warming are abiotic effects such as changes in the duration and intensity of precipitation events, wind intensity and heat waves. Most importantly, AGW may

  3. The tragedy of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominique Auverlot

    2014-01-01

    The author first evokes the consequences of global warming: ocean acidity, ice melt, sea level rise, repeated and always more intense extreme climatic events (a list of the main meteorological and climatic events which occurred in 2013 is given). He outlines that these phenomena happen more quickly than foreseen. He notices that these facts confirm the content of the different IPCC reports. The author outlines the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He discusses the evolutions of these emissions between 1970 and 2010 in the different countries with respect to their level of economic development. It clearly appears that developed countries produce more emissions, and have only stabilized their emission level whereas emerging countries have notably increased their emissions. Developed and emerging countries should therefore act as quickly as possible

  4. Modeling of Solar Radiation Management: A Comparison of Simulations Using Reduced Solar Constant and Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bala, G.; Kalidindi, S.; Modak, A.; Caldeira, K.

    2014-12-01

    Several climate modelling studies in the past have used reduction in solar constant to simulate the climatic effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) geoengineering. This is most likely valid only for space-based mirrors/reflectors but not for SRM methods that rely on stratospheric aerosols. In this study, we use a climate model to evaluate the differences in climate response to SRM by uniform solar constant reduction and stratospheric aerosols. The experiments are designed such that global mean warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2xCO2) is nearly cancelled in each case. In such a scenario, the residual climate effects are similar when important surface and tropospheric climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are considered. However, there are significant differences in stratospheric temperature response and diffuse and direct radiation reaching the surface. A difference of 1K in the global mean stratospheric (61-9.8 hPa) temperature is simulated between the two SRM methods, with warming in the aerosol scheme and a slight cooling for sunshades. While the global mean surface diffuse radiation increases by ~23% and direct radiation decreases by about 9% in the case of aerosol SRM method, both direct and diffuse radiation decrease by similar fractional amounts (~1.0%) when solar constant is reduced. When CO2 fertilization effects from elevated CO2 concentration levels are removed, the contribution from shaded leaves to gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 1.8 % in aerosol SRM because of increased diffuse light. However, this increase is almost offset by a 15.2% decline in sunlit contribution due to reduced direct light. Overall both the SRM simulations show similar decrease in GPP (~ 8%) and NPP (~3%) relative to 2xCO2, indicating the negligible effect of the fractional changes in direct/diffuse radiation on the overall plant productivity. Based on our modelling study, we conclude that the climate states produced by a

  5. Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A

    2014-03-01

    Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).

  6. STEFLUX, a tool for investigating stratospheric intrusions: application to two WMO/GAW global stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Putero

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Stratospheric intrusion (SI events are a topic of ongoing research, especially because of their ability to change the oxidation capacity of the troposphere and their contribution to tropospheric ozone levels. In this work, a novel tool called STEFLUX (Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Exchange Flux is presented, discussed, and used to provide a first long-term investigation of SI over two global hot-spot regions for climate change and air pollution: the southern Himalayas and the central Mediterranean Basin. The main purpose of STEFLUX is to obtain a fast-computing and reliable identification of the SI events occurring at a specific location and during a specified time window. It relies on a compiled stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange (STE climatology, which makes use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset from the ECMWF, as well as a refined version of a well-established Lagrangian methodology. STEFLUX results are compared to the SI observations (SIO at two high-mountain WMO/GAW global stations in these climate hot spots, i.e., the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P, 5079 m a.s.l. and Mt. Cimone (2165 m a.s.l., which are often affected by SI events. Compared to the observational datasets at the two specific measurement sites, STEFLUX is able to detect SI events on a regional scale. Furthermore, it has the advantage of retaining additional information concerning the pathway of stratospheric-affected air masses, such as the location of tropopause crossing and other meteorological parameters along the trajectories. However, STEFLUX neglects mixing and dilution that air masses undergo along their transport within the troposphere. Therefore, the regional-scale STEFLUX events cannot be expected to perfectly reproduce the point measurements at NCO-P and Mt. Cimone, which are also affected by small-scale (orographic circulations. Still, the seasonal variability in SI events according to SIO and STEFLUX agrees fairly well. By exploiting the

  7. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  8. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  9. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  10. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  11. Transport of Mars atmospheric water into high northern latitudes during a polar warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, J. R.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

    1988-01-01

    Several numerical experiments were conducted with a simplified tracer transport model in order to attempt to examine the poleward transport of Mars atmospheric water during a polar warming like that which occurred during the winter solstice dust storm of 1977. The flow for the transport experiments was taken from numerical simulations with a nonlinear beta-plane dynamical model. Previous studies with this model have demonstrated that a polar warming having essential characteristics like those observed during the 1977 dust storm can be produced by a planetary wave mechanism analogous to that responsible for terrestrial sudden stratospheric warmings. Several numerical experiments intended to simulate water transport in the absence of any condensation were carried out. These experiments indicate that the flow during a polar warming can transport very substantial amounts of water to high northern latitudes, given that the water does not condense and fall out before reaching the polar region.

  12. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  13. On particles in the Arctic stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Jørgensen

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Soon after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole it became clear that particles in the polar stratosphere had an infl uence on the destruction of the ozone layer. Two major types of particles, sulphate aerosols and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs, provide the surfaces where fast heterogeneous chemical reactions convert inactive halogen reservoir species into potentially ozone-destroying radicals. Lidar measurements have been used to classify the PSCs. Following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 it was found that the Arctic stratosphere was loaded with aerosols, and that aerosols observed with lidar and ozone observed with ozone sondes displayed a layered structure, and that the aerosol and ozone contents in the layers frequently appeared to be negatively correlated. The layered structure was probably due to modulation induced by the dynamics at the edge of the polar vortex. Lidar observations of the Mt. Pinatubo aerosols were in several cases accompanied by balloon-borne backscatter soundings, whereby backscatter measurements in three different wavelengths made it possible to obtain information about the particle sizes. An investigation of the infl uence of synoptic temperature histories on the physical properties of PSC particles has shown that most of the liquid type 1b particles were observed in the process of an ongoing, relatively fast, and continuous cooling from temperatures clearly above the nitric acid trihydrate condensation temperature (TNAT. On the other hand, it appeared that a relatively long period, with a duration of at least 1-2 days, at temperatures below TNAT provide the conditions which may lead to the production of solid type 1a PSCs.

  14. Polar stratospheric cloud observations by MIPAS on ENVISAT: detection method, validation and analysis of the northern hemisphere winter 2002/2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Spang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS on ENVISAT has made extensive measurements of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs in the northern hemisphere winter 2002/2003. A PSC detection method based on a ratio of radiances (the cloud index has been implemented for MIPAS and is validated in this study with respect to ground-based lidar and space borne occultation measurements. A very good correspondence in PSC sighting and cloud altitude between MIPAS detections and those of other instruments is found for cloud index values of less than four. Comparisons with data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III are used to further show that the sensitivity of the MIPAS detection method for this threshold value of cloud index is approximately equivalent to an extinction limit of 10-3km-1 at 1022nm, a wavelength used by solar occultation experiments. The MIPAS cloud index data are subsequently used to examine, for the first time with any technique, the evolution of PSCs throughout the Arctic polar vortex up to a latitude close to 90° north on a near-daily basis. We find that the winter of 2002/2003 is characterised by three phases of very different PSC activity. First, an unusual, extremely cold phase in the first three weeks of December resulted in high PSC occurrence rates. This was followed by a second phase of only moderate PSC activity from 5-13 January, separated from the first phase by a minor warming event. Finally there was a third phase from February to the end of March where only sporadic and mostly weak PSC events took place. The composition of PSCs during the winter period has also been examined, exploiting in particular an infra-red spectral signature which is probably characteristic of NAT. The MIPAS observations show the presence of these particles on a number of occasions in December but very rarely in January. The PSC type differentiation from MIPAS indicates that future comparisons of PSC

  15. The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, J. M.; Gille, J. C.

    1978-01-01

    The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere is used to obtain vertical profiles and maps of temperature and the concentration of ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and nitric acid for the region of the stratosphere bounded by the upper troposphere and the lower mesosphere.

  16. Correlative measurements of the stratospheric aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, R.; Brogniez, C.; Herman, M.; Diallo, S.; Ackerman, M.

    1992-12-01

    Joint experiments were organized or available during stratospheric flights of a photopolarimeter, referred to as RADIBAL (radiometer balloon). In May 1984, RADIBAL flew simultaneously with another balloonborne experiment conducted by the Institut d'Aeronomie Spatiale de Belgique (IASB), which provides multiwavelength vertical profiles of the aerosol scattering coefficient. At this time, the El Chichon layer was observable quite directly from mountain sites. A ground-based station set up at Pic du Midi allowed an extensive description of the aerosol optical properties. The IASB and the Pic du Midi observations are consistent with the aerosol properties derived from the RADIBAL measurement analysis.

  17. Stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, O.

    2008-01-01

    It is well known that an overexposure to ultraviolet radiation is associated with a number of health risks such as an increased risk of cataracts and skin cancers. At a time when climate change is often blamed for all our environmental problems, what is the latest news about the stratospheric ozone layer and other factors controlling ultraviolet radiation at the surface of the Earth? Will the expected changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and changes in our climate increase or decrease the risk for skin cancer? This article investigates the role of the various factors influencing ultraviolet radiation and presents the latest knowledge on the subject. (author)

  18. The boiling point of stratospheric aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, J. M.

    1971-01-01

    A photoelectric particle counter was used for the measurement of aerosol boiling points. The operational principle involves raising the temperature of the aerosol by vigorously heating a portion of the intake tube. At or above the boiling point, the particles disintegrate rather quickly, and a noticeable effect on the size distribution and concentration is observed. Stratospheric aerosols appear to have the same volatility as a solution of 75% sulfuric acid. Chemical analysis of the aerosols indicates that there are other substances present, but that the sulfate radical is apparently the major constituent.

  19. Photochemistry of materials in the stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, H.S. [Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, CA (United States)

    1993-12-01

    This research is concerned with global change in the atmosphere, including photochemical modeling and, in the past, experimental gas-phase photochemistry involving molecular dynamics and laboratory study of atmospheric chemical reactions. The experimental work on this project concluded in August 1991, but there is a back-log of several journal articles to be written and submitted for publication. The theoretical work involves photochemical modeling in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and advising the Upper Atmosphere Research Program on Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

  20. A global climatology of stratospheric gravity waves from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Lars; Xue, Xianghui; Alexander, M. Joan

    2014-05-01

    We present the results of a new study that aims on the detection and classification of `hotspots' of stratospheric gravity waves on a global scale. The analysis is based on a nine-year record (2003 to 2011) of radiance measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite. We detect the presence of stratospheric gravity waves based on 4.3 micron brightness temperature variances. Our method is optimized for peak events, i.e., strong gravity wave events for which the local variance considerably exceeds background levels. We estimated the occurrence frequencies of these peak events for different seasons and time of day and used the results to find local maxima of gravity wave activity. In addition, we use AIRS radiances at 8.1 micron to simultaneously detect convective events, including deep convection in the tropics and mesoscale convective systems at mid latitudes. We classified the gravity waves according to their sources, based on seasonal occurrence frequencies for convection and by means of topographic data. Our study reproduces well-known hotspots of gravity waves, e.g., the mountain wave hotspots at the Andes and the Antarctic Peninsula or the convective hotspot during the thunderstorm season over the North American Great Plains. However, the high horizontal resolution of the AIRS observations also helped us to locate several smaller hotspots, which were partly unknown or poorly studied so far. Most of these smaller hotspots are found near orographic features like small mountain ranges, in coastal regions, in desert areas, or near isolated islands. This new study will help to select the most promising regions and seasons for future observational studies of gravity waves. Reference: Hoffmann, L., X. Xue, and M. J. Alexander, A global view of stratospheric gravity wave hotspots located with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 416-434, doi:10.1029/2012JD018658, 2013.

  1. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  2. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  3. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...

  4. One-dimensional numerical modeling of Blue Jet and its impact on stratospheric chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duruisseau, F.; Thiéblemont, R.; Huret, N.

    2011-12-01

    In the stratosphere the ozone layer is very sensitive to the NOx abundance. The ionisation of N2 and O2 molecules by TLE's (Transient Luminous Events) is a source of NOx which is currently not well quantified and could act as a loss of ozone. In this study a one dimensional explicit parameterization of a Blue-Jet propagation based on that proposed by Raizer et al. (2006 and 2007) has been developed. This parameterization considers Blue-Jet as a streamer initiated by a bidirectional leader discharge, emerging from the anvil and sustained by moderate cloud charge. The streamer growth varies with the electrical field induced by initial cloud charge and the initial altitude. This electrical parameterization and the chemical mechanisms associated with the discharge have been implemented into a detailed chemical model of stratospheric ozone including evolution of nitrogen, chlorine and bromine species. We will present several tests performed to validate the electrical code and evaluate the propagation velocity and the maximum altitude attains by the blue jet as a function of electrical parameters. The results obtained giving the spatiotemporal evolution of the electron density are then used to initiate the specific chemistry associated with the Blue Jet. Preliminary results on the impact of such discharge on the ozone content and the whole stratospheric system will be presented.

  5. Convective Transport of Very-short-lived Bromocarbons to the Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Qing; Atlas, Elliot Leonard; Blake, Donald Ray; Dorf, Marcel; Pfeilsticker, Klaus August; Schauffler, Sue Myhre

    2014-01-01

    We use the NASA GEOS Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) to quantify the contribution of two most important brominated very short-lived substances (VSLS), bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), to stratospheric bromine and its sensitivity to convection strength. Model simulations suggest that the most active transport of VSLS from the marine boundary layer through the tropopause occurs over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific warm pool, and off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Together, convective lofting of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 and their degradation products supplies 8 ppt total bromine to the base of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL, 150 hPa), similar to the amount of VSLS organic bromine available in the marine boundary layer (7.8-8.4 ppt) in the above active convective lofting regions. Of the total 8 ppt VSLS-originated bromine that enters the base of TTL at 150 hPa, half is in the form of source gas injection (SGI) and half as product gas injection (PGI). Only a small portion (Br2, together, contribute 7.7 pptv to the present-day inorganic bromine in the stratosphere. However, varying model deep convection strength between maximum and minimum convection conditions can introduce a 2.6 pptv uncertainty in the contribution of VSLS to inorganic bromine in the stratosphere (BryVSLS). Contrary to the conventional wisdom, minimum convection condition leads to a larger BryVSLS as the reduced scavenging in soluble product gases, thus a significant increase in PGI (2-3 ppt), greatly exceeds the relative minor decrease in SGI (a few 10ths ppt.

  6. Persistence of Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccormick, M. Patrick; Trepte, C. R.

    1988-01-01

    The persistence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 satellite sensor over a 9-year period is compared and contrasted. Histograms of the SAM 2 1.0 micron extinction ratio data (aerosol extinction normalized by the molecular extinction) at an altitude of 18 km in the Antarctic have been generated for three 10-day periods in the month of September. Statistics for eight different years (1979 to 1982 and 1984 to 1987) are shown in separate panels for each figure. Since the SAM 2 system is a solar occultation experiment, observations are limited to the edge of the polar night and no measurements are made deep within the vortex where temperatures could be colder. For this reason, use is made of the NMC global gridded fields and the known temperature-extinction relationship to infer additional information on the occurrence and areal coverage of PSCs. Calculations of the daily areal coverage of the 195 K isotherm will be presented for this same period of data. This contour level lies in the range of the predicted temperature for onset of the Type 1 particle enhancement mode at 50 mb (Poole and McCormick, 1988b) and should indicate approximately when formation of the binary HNO3-H2O particles begins.

  7. Study of photolytic aerosols at stratospheric pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delattre, Patrick.

    1975-07-01

    An experimental study of photolytic aerosol formation at stratospheric pressure (60 Torr) and laboratory temperature, was carried out previous to the exact simulation of photolytic aerosol formation in real stratospheric conditions. An experimental simulation device, techniques of generation of known mixtures of inert gases with SO 2 and NOsub(x) traces at low concentration (below 1 ppm volume) and H 2 O traces (a few ppm), and techniques for the determination and counting of aerosol particles at low pressures were perfected. The following results were achieved: the rate of vapor condensation on nuclei was reduced when total pressure decreased. At low pressure the working of condensation nuclei counters and the formation of photolytic aerosols is influenced by this phenomenon. An explanation is proposed, as well as means to avoid this unpleasant effect on the working of nuclei counters at low pressure. No photolytic aerosol production was ascertained at 60 Torr when water concentration was below 100 ppm whatever the concentration of SO 2 or NOsub(x) traces. With water concentration below 1200ppm and SO 2 trace concentration below 1ppm, the aerosol particles produced could not consist of sulfuric acid drops but probably of nitrosyl sulfate acide crystals [fr

  8. Stratospheric ozone - Impact of human activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcelroy, Michael B.; Salawitch, Ross J.

    1989-01-01

    The current knowledge of the chemistry of the stratosphere is reviewed, with particular consideration given to the measurements from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment and from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Analysis of the ATMOS data at 30 deg N suggests that the current understanding of the contemporary-stratosphere chemistry at mid-latitudes is relatively complete, except for possible problems with the diurnal variations of N2O5 at low altitudes, and with ClNO3 at higher altitudes. Except for some difficulties with these two compounds, the data from ATMOS agree well with the gas phase models for nitrogen and chlorine species at 30 deg N in spring. It is emphasized that, in addition to the HOCl mechanism proposed by Solomon et al. (1986), the ClO-BrO scheme proposed by McElroy et al. (1986), and the ClO dimer mechanism introduced by Molina and Molina (1987), other processes exist that are responsible for ozone removal.

  9. Satellite studies of the stratospheric aerosol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCormick, M.P.; Hamill, P.; Pepin, T.J.; Chu, W.P.; Swissler, T.J.; McMaster, L.R.

    1979-01-01

    The potential climatological and environmental importance of the stratospheric aerosol layer has prompted great interest in measuring the properties of this aerosol. In this paper we report on two recently deployed NASA satellite systems (SAM II and SAGE) that are monitoring the stratospheric aerosol. The satellite orbits are such that nearly global coverage is obtained. The instruments mounted in the spacecraft are sun photometers that measure solar intensity at specific wavelengths as it is moderated by atmospheric particulates and gases during each sunrise and sunset encountered by the satellites. The data obtained are ''inverted'' to yield vertical aerosol and gaseous (primarily ozone) extinction profiles with 1 km vertical resolution. Thus, latitudinal, longitudinal, and temporal variations in the aerosol layer can be evaluated. The satellite systems are being validated by a series of ground truth experiments using airborne and ground lidar, balloon-borne dustsondes, aircraft-mounted impactors, and other correlative sensors. We describe the SAM II and SAGE satellite systems, instrument characteristics, and mode of operation; outline the methodology of the experiments; and describe the ground truth experiments. We present preliminary results from these measurements

  10. Hydration of the lower stratosphere by ice crystal geysers over land convective systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Khaykin

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The possible impact of deep convective overshooting over land has been explored by six simultaneous soundings of water vapour, particles and ozone in the lower stratosphere next to Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs during the monsoon season over West Africa in Niamey, Niger in August 2006. The water vapour measurements were carried out using a fast response FLASH-B Lyman-alpha hygrometer. The high vertical resolution observations of the instrument show the presence of accumulation of enhanced water vapour layers between the tropopause at 370 K and the 420 K level. Most of these moist layers are shown connected with overshooting events occurring upwind as identified from satellite IR images over which the air mass probed by the sondes passed during the three previous days. In the case of a local overshoot identified by echo top turrets above the tropopause by the MIT C-band radar also in Niamey, tight coincidence was found between enhanced water vapour, ice crystal and ozone dip layers indicative of fast uplift of tropospheric air across the tropopause. The water vapour mixing ratio in the enriched layers exceeds frequently by 1–3 ppmv the average 6 ppmv saturation ratio at the tropopause and by up to 7 ppmv in the extreme case of local storm in coincidence with the presence of ice crystals. The presence of such layers strongly suggests hydration of the lower stratosphere by geyser-like injection of ice particles over overshooting turrets. The pile-like increase of water vapour up to 19 km seen by the high-resolution hygrometer during the season of maximum temperature of the tropopause, suggests that the above hydration mechanism may contribute to the summer maximum moisture in the lower stratosphere. If this interpretation is correct, hydration by ice geysers across the tropopause might be an important contributor to the stratospheric water vapour budget.

  11. Climatic impacts of stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. C. Jones

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the potential climatic effects of geoengineering by sulfate, black carbon and titania injection against a baseline RCP8.5 scenario. We use the HadGEM2-CCS model to simulate scenarios in which the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is offset by sufficient aerosol injection throughout the 2020–2100 period. We find that the global-mean temperature is effectively maintained at historical levels for the entirety of the period for all three aerosol-injection scenarios, though there is a wide range of side-effects which are discussed in detail. The most prominent conclusion is that although the BC injection rate necessary to produce an equivalent global mean temperature response is much lower, the severity of stratospheric temperature changes (> +70 °C and precipitation impacts effectively exclude BC from being a viable option for geoengineering. Additionally, while it has been suggested that titania would be an effective particle because of its high scattering efficiency, it also efficiently absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation producing a significant stratospheric warming (> +20 °C. As injection rates and climatic impacts for titania are close to those for sulfate, there appears to be little benefit in terms of climatic influence of using titania when compared to the injection of sulfur dioxide, which has the added benefit of being well-modeled through extensive research that has been carried out on naturally occurring explosive volcanic eruptions.

  12. Rayleigh lidar investigation of sudden stratospheric warming observed over northern and southern hemisphere stations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sivakumar, V

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available to Dec 2001) over Observatory of Haute-Provence(OHP), south of France(44°N, 6°E) used. Total Number of observations (20 years) : 2631 profiles Total Number of observations in summer : 1394 profiles Total Number of observations in winter : 1237...

  13. Equatorial electrodynamics and neutral background in the Asian sector during the 2009 stratospheric sudden warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Huixin; Yamamoto, Mamoru; Ram, S. Tulasi

    2011-01-01

    Using ground observations of total electron content (TEC) and equatorial electrojet (EEJ) in the Asian sector, along with plasma and neutral densities obtained from the CHAMP satellite, we investigate the ionospheric electrodynamics and neutral background in this longitude sector during the major...... perturbation possesses a significant hemispheric asymmetry in terms of onset date and magnitude. It starts on the same day as the SSW peak in the Northern Hemisphere but 2 days later in the Southern Hemisphere. Its magnitude is twice as strong in the north than in the south. Third, strong counter electrojet...... occurs in the afternoon, following the strengthening of the eastward EEJ in the morning. Fourth, semidiurnal perturbation in both TEC and EEJ possesses a phase shift, at a rate of about 0.7 h/day. Comparisons with results reported in the Peruvian sector reveal clear longitude dependence in the amplitude...

  14. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  15. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  16. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  17. 30-year lidar observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer state over Tomsk (Western Siberia, Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuev, Vladimir V.; Burlakov, Vladimir D.; Nevzorov, Aleksei V.; Pravdin, Vladimir L.; Savelieva, Ekaterina S.; Gerasimov, Vladislav V.

    2017-02-01

    There are only four lidar stations in the world which have almost continuously performed observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer (SAL) state over the last 30 years. The longest time series of the SAL lidar measurements have been accumulated at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) since 1973, the NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton, Virginia) since 1974, and Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany) since 1976. The fourth lidar station we present started to perform routine observations of the SAL parameters in Tomsk (56.48° N, 85.05° E, Western Siberia, Russia) in 1986. In this paper, we mainly focus on and discuss the stratospheric background period from 2000 to 2005 and the causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk in the 2006-2015 period. During the last decade, volcanic aerosol plumes from tropical Mt. Manam, Soufrière Hills, Rabaul, Merapi, Nabro, and Kelut and extratropical (northern) Mt. Okmok, Kasatochi, Redoubt, Sarychev Peak, Eyjafjallajökull, and Grímsvötn were detected in the stratosphere over Tomsk. When it was possible, we used the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model to assign aerosol layers observed over Tomsk to the corresponding volcanic eruptions. The trajectory analysis highlighted some surprising results. For example, in the cases of the Okmok, Kasatochi, and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, the HYSPLIT air mass backward trajectories, started from altitudes of aerosol layers detected over Tomsk with a lidar, passed over these volcanoes on their eruption days at altitudes higher than the maximum plume altitudes given by the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program. An explanation of these facts is suggested. The role of both tropical and northern volcanic eruptions in volcanogenic aerosol loading of the midlatitude stratosphere is also discussed. In addition to volcanoes, we considered other possible causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk, i.e., the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) events and smoke plumes from strong forest fires. At least

  18. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  19. CERN: Antiprotons probe the nuclear stratosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The outer periphery of heavy stable nuclei is notoriously difficult to study experimentally. While the well understood electromagnetic interaction between electrons (or muons) and protons has given the nuclear charge (or proton) distribution with high precision for almost all stable nuclei, neutron distribution studies are much less precise. This is especially true for large nuclear distances, where the nuclear density is small. A few previous experiments probing the nuclear ''stratosphere'' suggested that far from the centre of the nucleus (of the order of 2 nuclear radii) this stratosphere may be composed predominantly of neutrons. At the end of the sixties the term ''neutron halo'' was introduced to describe this phenomenon, but experimental evidence was scarce or even controversial, and remained so for almost a quarter of a century. Recently, the Warsaw/Munich/Berlin collaboration working within the PS203 experiment at CERN's LEAR low energy antiproton ring, proposed a new method to study the nuclear periphery using stopped antiprotons. The halo now looks firmer. A 200 MeV/c beam of antiprotons was slowed down by interactions with atomic electrons. When antiproton kinetic energy drops well below 1 keV, the particles are captured in the outermost orbits of ''exotic atoms'', where the antiprotons take the place of the usual orbital electrons. With the lower orbits in this antiprotonic atom empty, the antiproton drops toward the nuclear surface, first emitting Auger electrons and later predominantly antiprotonic X-rays. Due to the strong interaction between antiprotons and nucleons, the antiproton succumbs to annihilation with a nucleon in the rarified nuclear stratosphere, far above the innermost Bohr orbit of the atom. The annihilation probability in heavy nuclei is maximal where the nuclear density is about 3% of its central value and extends to densities many orders of magnitude smaller

  20. CERN: Antiprotons probe the nuclear stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1995-06-15

    The outer periphery of heavy stable nuclei is notoriously difficult to study experimentally. While the well understood electromagnetic interaction between electrons (or muons) and protons has given the nuclear charge (or proton) distribution with high precision for almost all stable nuclei, neutron distribution studies are much less precise. This is especially true for large nuclear distances, where the nuclear density is small. A few previous experiments probing the nuclear ''stratosphere'' suggested that far from the centre of the nucleus (of the order of 2 nuclear radii) this stratosphere may be composed predominantly of neutrons. At the end of the sixties the term ''neutron halo'' was introduced to describe this phenomenon, but experimental evidence was scarce or even controversial, and remained so for almost a quarter of a century. Recently, the Warsaw/Munich/Berlin collaboration working within the PS203 experiment at CERN's LEAR low energy antiproton ring, proposed a new method to study the nuclear periphery using stopped antiprotons. The halo now looks firmer. A 200 MeV/c beam of antiprotons was slowed down by interactions with atomic electrons. When antiproton kinetic energy drops well below 1 keV, the particles are captured in the outermost orbits of ''exotic atoms'', where the antiprotons take the place of the usual orbital electrons. With the lower orbits in this antiprotonic atom empty, the antiproton drops toward the nuclear surface, first emitting Auger electrons and later predominantly antiprotonic X-rays. Due to the strong interaction between antiprotons and nucleons, the antiproton succumbs to annihilation with a nucleon in the rarified nuclear stratosphere, far above the innermost Bohr orbit of the atom. The annihilation probability in heavy nuclei is maximal where the nuclear density is about 3% of its central value and extends to densities many orders of magnitude smaller. Antiproton annihilation on a proton or on a neutron at the nuclear

  1. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  2. Stratospheric BrONO2 observed by MIPAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fischer

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The first measurements of stratospheric bromine nitrate (BrONO2 are reported. Bromine nitrate has been clearly identified in atmospheric infrared emission spectra recorded with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS aboard the European Envisat satellite, and stratospheric concentration profiles have been determined for different conditions (day and night, different latitudes. The BrONO2 concentrations show strong day/night variations, with much lower concentrations during the day. Maximum volume mixing ratios observed during night are 20 to 25 pptv. The observed concentration profiles are in agreement with estimations from photochemical models and show that the current understanding of stratospheric bromine chemistry is generally correct.

  3. Warm pre-stressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedner, G.

    1983-01-01

    Literature survey and critical evaluation of the phenomenon of warm pre-stressing (WPS) is presented. It is found that the cause of it is not clear and a calculated control is missing. The effect of irradiation is unknown, and the influence of WPS on the behaviour of reactor vessels is discussed. (G.B.)

  4. Being Warm-Hearted

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李函; 任汉鼎

    2017-01-01

    Good morning,ladies and gentlemen.It’s my honor to address[向……致辞] you.My English name is Isabella.I’m a high school student of 17.I have some good personality traits[特点],including being warm-hearted.So here comes my topic:Being

  5. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  6. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  7. Paralyzed warming world

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 81-86 ISSN 1876-8156 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : global warming * climate Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://ojs.ubvu.vu.nl/alf/article/view/134/250

  8. Sensitivity of the radiative forcing by stratospheric sulfur geoengineering to the amount and strategy of the SO2injection studied with the LMDZ-S3A model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinschmitt, Christoph; Boucher, Olivier; Platt, Ulrich

    2018-02-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming. Previous modelling studies found that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) could effectively compensate for the warming by greenhouse gases on the global scale, but also that the achievable cooling effect per sulfur mass unit, i.e. the forcing efficiency, decreases with increasing injection rate. In this study we use the atmospheric general circulation model LMDZ with the sectional aerosol module S3A to determine how the forcing efficiency depends on the injected amount of SO2, the injection height, and the spatio-temporal pattern of injection. We find that the forcing efficiency may decrease more drastically for larger SO2 injections than previously estimated. As a result, the net instantaneous radiative forcing does not exceed the limit of -2 W m-2 for continuous equatorial SO2 injections and it decreases (in absolute value) for injection rates larger than 20 Tg S yr-1. In contrast to other studies, the net radiative forcing in our experiments is fairly constant with injection height (in a range 17 to 23 km) for a given amount of SO2 injected. Also, spreading the SO2 injections between 30° S and 30° N or injecting only seasonally from varying latitudes does not result in a significantly larger (i.e. more negative) radiative forcing. Other key characteristics of our simulations include a consequent stratospheric heating, caused by the absorption of solar and infrared radiation by the aerosol, and changes in stratospheric dynamics, with a collapse of the quasi-biennial oscillation at larger injection rates, which has impacts on the resulting spatial aerosol distribution, size, and optical properties. But it has to be noted that the complexity and uncertainty of stratospheric processes cause considerable disagreement among different modelling studies of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. This may be addressed through detailed

  9. Stratonauts pioneers venturing into the stratosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrenfried, Manfred "Dutch"

    2014-01-01

    Stratonauts chronicles humankind’s quest for ever higher altitudes from ancient times to the present. It is based upon history, science and technology, and tells some interesting and fascinating stories along the way. It pays tribute to those killed while attempting to reach the stratosphere over the past several centuries.   “Dutch” von Ehrenfried uses his personal experience as a NASA sensor operator on the RB-57F, flying to an altitude of 70,000 feet, as well as the input and experience from other RB-57F, U-2, A-12, SR-71 and F-104 pilots. Although many of the aircraft and balloons are described, more emphasis is placed on the crews and what they went through. This book is intended for aviators of all kinds and flying enthusiasts in general.

  10. Influence of stratospheric aerosol on albedo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gormatyuk, Yu K; Kaufman, Yu G; Kolomeev, M P

    1985-06-01

    The influence of stratospheric aerosol (SA) on the transfer of solar radiation in the atmosphere is the principal factor determining the effect of SA on climate. The change in the radiation balance under the influence of SA is computed most precisely in radiative-convective models. However, the complex method used in these models cannot be used for other types of climate models. The objective of the study was to obtain a quantitative evaluation of the influence of SA on albedo without the use of simplifying assumptions. In the approximation of single scattering an expression is derived for change in albedo under the influence of stratospheric aerosol taking into account the dependence of albedo of the atmosphere-earth's surface system on solar zenith distance. The authors give the results of computations of the response of mean annual albedo to sulfuric acid aerosol for 10/sup 0/ latitude zones in the Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, computations of the optical characteristics of aerosol were made using the Mie theory for 10 spectral intervals taking in the range of wavelengths of solar radiation from 0.29 to 4.0 ..mu.. m. The refractive index of aerosol was stipulated in accordance with Palmer and Williams. The angular dependence of albedo for cloudless and cloudy atmospheres given by Harshvardhan was used. The values of undisturbed albedo were assumed to be identical for all wavelengths due to lack of climatological data on the spectral dependence of albedo of the atmosphere-earth's surface system. The angular distribution of the intensity of solar radiation for each of the latitude zones was computed by the method described by I.M. Alekseyev, et al.

  11. Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering impacts on global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Lawrence, P.; Lombardozzi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering has been proposed to reduce the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. If it is ever used, it would change agricultural production, and so is one of the future climate scenarios for the third phase of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. As an example of those impacts, we use the Community Land Model (CLM-crop 4.5) to simulate how climate changes from the G4 geoengineering scenario from the Geoengineering Modeling Intercomparison Project. The G4 geoengineering scenario specifies, in combination with RCP4.5 forcing, starting in 2020 daily injections of a constant amount of SO2 at a rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year at one point on the Equator into the lower stratosphere. Eight climate modeling groups have completed G4 simulations. We use the crop model to simulate the impacts of climate change (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on the global agriculture system for five crops - rice, maize, soybeans, cotton, and sugarcane. In general, without irrigation, compared with the reference run (RCP4.5), global production of cotton, rice and sugarcane would increase significantly due to the cooling effect. Maize and soybeans show different regional responses. In tropical regions, maize and soybean have a higher yield in G4 compared with RCP4.5, while in the temperate regions they have a lower yield under a geoengineered climate. Impacts on specific countries in terms of different crop production depend on their locations. For example, the United States and Argentina show soybean production reduction of about 15% under G4 compared to RCP4.5, while Brazil increases soybean production by about 10%.

  12. Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey: a case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Jessie A; Bielory, Leonard; Fagliano, Jerald A

    2014-07-01

    Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases among school-aged children in the United States. Environmental respiratory irritants exacerbate asthma among children. Understanding the impact of a variety of known and biologically plausible environmental irritants and triggers among children in New Jersey - ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), tree pollen, weed pollen, grass pollen and ragweed - would allow for informed public health interventions. Time-stratified case-crossover design was used to study the transient impact of ozone, PM2.5 and pollen on the acute onset of pediatric asthma. Daily emergency department visits were obtained for children aged 3-17 years with a primary diagnosis of asthma during the warm season (April through September), 2004-2007 (inclusive). Bi-directional control sampling was used to select two control periods for each case for a total of 65,562 inclusion days. Since the period of exposure prior to emergency department visit may be the most clinically relevant, lag exposures were investigated (same day (lag0), 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 as well as 3-day and 5-day moving averages). Multivariable conditional logistic regression controlling for holiday, school-in-session indicator, and 3-day moving average for temperature and relative humidity was used to examine the associations. Odds ratios are based on interquartile range (IQR) increases or 10 unit increases when IQR ranges were narrow. Single-pollutant models as well as multipollutant models were examined. Stratification on gender, race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status was explored. The associations with ozone and PM2.5 were strongest on the same day (lag0) of the emergency department visit (RR IQR=1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06) and (RR IQR=1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), respectively, with a decreasing lag effect. Tree and weed pollen were associated with pediatric ED visits; the largest magnitudes of association was with the 5-day average (RR IQR=1.23, 95% CI 1.21-1.25) and (RR 10=1.13, 95% CI 1

  13. Simulation of stratospheric water vapor trends: impact on stratospheric ozone chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A transient model simulation of the 40-year time period 1960 to 1999 with the coupled climate-chemistry model (CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM shows a stratospheric water vapor increase over the last two decades of 0.7 ppmv and, additionally, a short-term increase after major volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, a long-term decrease in global total ozone as well as a short-term ozone decline in the tropics after volcanic eruptions are modeled. In order to understand the resulting effects of the water vapor changes on lower stratospheric ozone chemistry, different perturbation simulations were performed with the CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM feeding the water vapor perturbations only to the chemistry part. Two different long-term perturbations of lower stratospheric water vapor, +1 ppmv and +5 ppmv, and a short-term perturbation of +2 ppmv with an e-folding time of two months were applied. An additional stratospheric water vapor amount of 1 ppmv results in a 5–10% OH increase in the tropical lower stratosphere between 100 and 30 hPa. As a direct consequence of the OH increase the ozone destruction by the HOx cycle becomes 6.4% more effective. Coupling processes between the HOx-family and the NOx/ClOx-family also affect the ozone destruction by other catalytic reaction cycles. The NOx cycle becomes 1.6% less effective, whereas the effectiveness of the ClOx cycle is again slightly enhanced. A long-term water vapor increase does not only affect gas-phase chemistry, but also heterogeneous ozone chemistry in polar regions. The model results indicate an enhanced heterogeneous ozone depletion during antarctic spring due to a longer PSC existence period. In contrast, PSC formation in the northern hemisphere polar vortex and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion during arctic spring are not affected by the water vapor increase, because of the less PSC activity. Finally, this study shows that 10% of the global total ozone decline in the transient model run

  14. Laboratory investigation of nitrile ices of Titan's stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nna Mvondo, D.; Anderson, C. M.; McLain, J. L.; Samuelson, R. E.

    2017-09-01

    Titan's mid to lower stratosphere contains complex cloud systems of numerous organic ice particles comprised of both hydrocarbon and nitrile compounds. Most of these stratospheric ice clouds form as a result of vapor condensation formation processes. However, there are additional ice emission features such as dicyanoacetylene (C4N2) and the 220 cm-1 ice emission feature (the "Haystack") that are difficult to explain since there are no observed vapor emission features associated with these ices. In our laboratory, using a high-vacuum chamber coupled to a FTIR spectrometer, we are engaged in a dedicated investigation of Titan's stratospheric ices to interpret and constrain Cassini Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS) far-IR data. We will present laboratory transmittance spectra obtained for propionitrile (CH3CH2CN), cyanogen (C2N2) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) ices, as well as various combinations of their mixtures, to better understand the cloud chemistry occurring in Titan's stratosphere.

  15. Exposing Microorganisms in the Stratosphere for Planetary Protection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth’s stratosphere is similar to the surface of Mars: rarified air which is dry, cold, and irradiated. E-MIST is a balloon payload that has 4 independently...

  16. The natural stratosphere of 1974. CIAP monograph 1. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-09-01

    The Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) of the U.S. Department of Transportation is charged with the 'assessment' of the impact of future aircraft fleets and other vehicles operating in, or transiting through, the stratosphere. CIAP monograph 1 gives a survey, largely from an experimental standpoint, of what is known in 1974 about the unperturbed stratosphere with respect to an application to stratospheric flight. It reviews the overall structure of the stratosphere, its origin in terms of ozone photochemistry, solar irradiance and overall radiative energy balance, other chemically reactive minor species, and atmospheric motions on a variety of scales of time and distance. The limitations of our understanding are emphasized in the presentation. Also, the monograph examines briefly what is known about the effect of massive injections of nitrogen oxides (from atmospheric nuclear explosions) and sulfur oxides (from major volcanic eruptions)

  17. Is there any chlorine monoxide in the stratosphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumma, M. J.; Rogers, J. D.; Kostiuk, T.; Deming, D.; Hillman, J. J.; Zipoy, D.

    1983-01-01

    A ground-based search for stratospheric 35-ClO was carried out using an infrared heterodyne spectrometer in the solar absorption mode. Lines due to stratospheric HNO3 and tropospheric OCS were detected at about 0.2 percent absorptance levels, but the expected 0.1 percent lines of ClO in this same region were not seen. We find that stratospheric ClO is at least a factor of seven less abundant than is indicated by in situ measurements, and we set an upper limit of 2.3 x 10 to the 13th molecules/sq cm at the 95 percent confidence level for the integrated vertical column density of ClO. Our results imply that the release of chlorofluorocarbons may be significantly less important for the destruction of stratospheric ozone (O3) than is currently thought. Previously announced in STAR as N83-27518

  18. Possible effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric minor constituent chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, R. S.; Butler, D. M.

    1979-01-01

    Although stratosphere penetrating volcanic eruptions have been infrequent during the last half century, periods have existed in the last several hundred years when such eruptions were significantly more frequent. Several mechanisms exist for these injections to affect stratospheric minor constituent chemistry, both on the long-term average and for short-term perturbations. These mechanisms are reviewed and, because of the sensitivity of current models of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations, quantitative estimates are made of chlorine injection rates. It is found that, if chlorine makes up as much as 0.5 to 1% of the gases released and if the total gases released are about the same magnitude as the fine ash, then a major stratosphere penetrating eruption could deplete the ozone column by several percent. The estimate for the Agung eruption of 1963 is just under 1% an amount not excluded by the ozone record but complicated by the peak in atmospheric nuclear explosions at about the same time.

  19. The Temperature of the Arctic and Antarctic Lower Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is the key factor in changing the magnitude of ozone loss in the polar vortices. In this talk, we will review the results of Newman et al. [2000] that quantitatively demonstrate that the polar lower stratospheric temperature is primarily controlled by planetary-scale waves. In particular, the tropospheric eddy heat flux in middle to late winter (January--February) is highly correlated with the mean polar stratospheric temperature during March. Strong midwinter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer spring Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak midwinter forcing leads to cooler spring Arctic temperatures. In addition, this planetary wave driving also has a strong impact on the strength of the polar vortex. These results from the Northern Hemisphere will be contrasted with the Southern Hemisphere.

  20. A semi-empirical model for mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Funke

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The MIPAS Fourier transform spectrometer on board Envisat has measured global distributions of the six principal reactive nitrogen (NOy compounds (HNO3, NO2, NO, N2O5, ClONO2, and HNO4 during 2002–2012. These observations were used previously to detect regular polar winter descent of reactive nitrogen produced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP down to the lower stratosphere, often called the EPP indirect effect. It has further been shown that the observed fraction of NOy produced by EPP (EPP-NOy has a nearly linear relationship with the geomagnetic Ap index when taking into account the time lag introduced by transport. Here we exploit these results in a semi-empirical model for computation of EPP-modulated NOy densities and wintertime downward fluxes through stratospheric and mesospheric pressure levels. Since the Ap dependence of EPP-NOy is distorted during episodes of strong descent in Arctic winters associated with elevated stratopause events, a specific parameterization has been developed for these episodes. This model accurately reproduces the observations from MIPAS and is also consistent with estimates from other satellite instruments. Since stratospheric EPP-NOy depositions lead to changes in stratospheric ozone with possible implications for climate, the model presented here can be utilized in climate simulations without the need to incorporate many thermospheric and upper mesospheric processes. By employing historical geomagnetic indices, the model also allows for reconstruction of the EPP indirect effect since 1850. We found secular variations of solar cycle-averaged stratospheric EPP-NOy depositions on the order of 1 GM. In particular, we model a reduction of the EPP-NOy deposition rate during the last 3 decades, related to the coincident decline of geomagnetic activity that corresponds to 1.8 % of the NOy production rate by N2O oxidation. As the decline of the geomagnetic activity level is expected to continue in the

  1. Sulphur-rich volcanic eruptions and stratospheric aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, M. R.; Self, S.

    1984-01-01

    Data from direct measurements of stratospheric optical depth, Greenland ice-core acidity, and volcanological studies are compared, and it is shown that relatively small but sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions can have atmospheric effects equal to or even greater than much larger sulfur-poor eruptions. These small eruptions are probably the most frequent cause of increased stratospheric aerosols. The possible sources of the excess sulfur released in these eruptions are discussed.

  2. Long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone at selected stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbrecht, W; Claude, H; Schönenborn, F; McDermid, I S; Leblanc, T; Godin, S; Song, T; Swart, D P J; Meijer, Y J; Bodeker, G E; Connor, B J; Kämpfer, N; Hocke, K; Calisesi, Y; Schneider, N; Noë, J de la; Parrish, A D; Boyd, I S; Brühl, C; Steil, B; Giorgetta, M A; Manzini, E; Thomason, L W; Zawodny, J M; McCormick, M P; Russell, J M; Bhartia, P K; Stolarski, R S; Hollandsworth-Frith, S M

    2006-01-01

    The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas

  3. The propagation of orographic gravity waves into the stratosphere. Linear theory, idealized and realistic numerical simulation; Die Ausbreitung orographisch angeregter Schwerewellen in die Stratosphaere. Lineare Theorie, idealisierte und realitaetsnahe numerische Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leutbecher, M. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1998-07-01

    Flow over mountains in the stably stratified atmosphere excites gravity waves. The three-dimensional propagation of these waves into the stratosphere is studied using linear theority as well as idealized and realistic numerical simulations. Stagnation, momentum fluxes and temperature anomalies are analyzed for idealized types of flow. Isolated mountains with elliptical contours are considered. The unperturbed atmosphere has constant wind speed and constant static stability or two layers (troposphere/stratosphere) of constant stability each. Real flow over orography is investigated where gravity waves in the stratosphere have been observed. Characteristics of the gravity wave event over the southern tip of Greenland on 6 January 1992 were recorded on a flight of the ER-2 at an altitude of 20 km. In the second case polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) were observed by an airborne Lidar over Northern Scandinavia on 9 January 1997. The PSC were induced by temperature anomalies in orographic gravity waves. (orig.)

  4. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  5. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  6. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  7. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  8. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  9. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  10. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  11. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  12. Potential For Stratospheric Ozone Depletion During Carboniferous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bill, M.; Goldstein, A. H.

    Methyl bromide (CH3Br) constitutes the largest source of bromine atoms to the strato- sphere whereas methyl chloride (CH3Cl) is the most abundant halocarbon in the tro- posphere. Both gases play an important role in stratospheric ozone depletion. For in- stance, Br coupled reactions are responsible for 30 to 50 % of total ozone loss in the polar vortex. Currently, the largest natural sources of CH3Br and CH3Cl appear to be biological production in the oceans, inorganic production during biomass burning and plant production in salt marsh ecosystems. Variations of paleofluxes of CH3Br and CH3Cl can be estimated by analyses of oceanic paleoproductivity, stratigraphic analyses of frequency and distribution of fossil charcoal indicating the occurrence of wildfires, and/or by paleoreconstruction indicating the extent of salt marshes. Dur- ing the lower Carboniferous time (Tournaisian-Visean), the southern margin of the Laurasian continent was characterized by charcoal deposits. Estimation on frequency of charcoal layers indicates that wildfires occur in a range of 3-35 years (Falcon-Lang 2000). This suggests that biomass burning could be an important source of CH3Br and CH3Cl during Tournaisian-Viesan time. During Tounaisian and until Merame- cian carbon and oxygen isotope records have short term oscillations (Bruckschen et al. 1999, Mii et al. 1999). Chesterian time (mid- Carboniferous) is marked by an in- crease in delta18O values ( ~ 2 permil) and an increase of glacial deposit frequency suggesting lower temperatures. The occurrence of glacial deposits over the paleopole suggests polar conditions and the associated special features of polar mete- orology such as strong circumpolar wind in the stratosphere (polar vortex) and polar stratospheric clouds. Thus, conditions leading to polar statospheric ozone depletion can be found. Simultaneously an increase in delta13C values is documented. We interpret the positive shift in delta13C as a result of higher bioproductivity

  13. Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith

    2018-01-01

    The relative impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and stratospheric ozone depletion on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period are quantified using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-�Climate Model. The experiment compares controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-�ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-�Climate Model, in which either GHGs or ozone depleting substances, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and ozone-depleting substances have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease, but GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. It is also found that both the acceleration of the diabatic circulation and the decrease of the mean age difference between downwelling and upwelling regions are mainly caused by GHG forcing. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: (1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup that inhibits young midlatitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex, and (2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

  14. Impacts of Stratospheric Black Carbon on Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Elliott, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, which would absorb sunlight, decrease global surface temperature by about 1°C for 5-10 years and have major impacts on precipitation and the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Using two global gridded crop models forced by one global climate model simulation, we investigate the impacts on agricultural productivity in various nations. The crop model in the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM-crop4.5) and the parallel Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (pDSSAT) in the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors are participating in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. We force these two crop models with output from the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model to characterize the global agricultural impact from climate changes due to a regional nuclear war. Crops in CLM-crop4.5 include maize, rice, soybean, cotton and sugarcane, and crops in pDSSAT include maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Although the two crop models require a different time frequency of weather input, we downscale the climate model output to provide consistent temperature, precipitation and solar radiation inputs. In general, CLM-crop4.5 simulates a larger global average reduction of maize and soybean production relative to pDSSAT. Global rice production shows negligible change with climate anomalies from a regional nuclear war. Cotton and sugarcane benefit from a regional nuclear war from CLM-crop4.5 simulation, and global wheat production would decrease significantly in the pDSSAT simulation. The regional crop yield responses to a regional nuclear conflict are different for each crop, and we present the changes in production on a national basis. These models do not include the crop responses to changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, or diffuse radiation, and we would like to encourage more modelers to improve crop models to account for those

  15. Molecular beam studies of stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Teresa Anne

    1998-12-01

    Photochemistry of chlorine oxide containing species plays a major role in stratospheric ozone depletion. This thesis discusses two photodissociation studies of the key molecules ClONO2 and ClOOCl which were previously thought to only produce Cl-atom (ozone depleting) products at wavelengths relevant to the stratosphere. The development of a molecular beam source of ClOOCl and the photodissociation dynamics of the model system Cl2O are also discussed. In the first chapter, the photochemistry of ClONO2 is examined at 308 nm using the technique of photofragment translational spectroscopy. Two primary decomposition pathways, leading to Cl + NO3 and ClO + NO2, were observed, with a lower limit of 0.33 for the relative yield of ClO. The angular distributions for both channels were anisotropic, indicating that the dissociation occurs within a rotational period. Chapter two revisits the photodissociation dynamics of Cl2O at 248 and 308 nm, on which we had previously reported preliminary findings. At 248 nm, three distinct dissociation pathways leading to Cl + ClO products were resolved. At 308 nm, the angular distribution was slightly more isotropic that previously reported, leaving open the possibility that Cl2O excited at 308 nm lives longer than a rotational period. Chapter three describes the development and optimization of a molecular beam source of ClOOCl. We utilized pulsed laser photolysis of ClA2O to generate ClO radicals, and cooled the cell to promote three body recombination to form ClOOCl. The principal components in the beam were Cl2, Cl2O, and ClOOCl. In the fourth chapter, the photodissociation dynamics of ClOOCl are investigated at 248 and 308 nm. We observed multiple dissociation pathways which produced ClO + ClO and 2Cl + O2 products. The relative Cl:ClO product yields are 1.0:0.13 and 1.0:0.20 for ClOOCl photolysis at 248 and 308 nm, respectively. The upper limit for the relative yield of the ClO + ClO channel was 0.19 at 248 nm and 0.31 at 308 nm

  16. Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2017-04-01

    The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).

  17. Modulations of stratospheric ozone by volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchette, Christian; Mcconnell, John C.

    1994-01-01

    We have used a time series of aerosol surface based on the measurements of Hofmann to investigate the modulation of total column ozone caused by the perturbation to gas phase chemistry by the reaction N2O5(gas) + H2O(aero) yields 2HNO3(gas) on the surface of stratospheric aerosols. We have tested a range of values for its reaction probability, gamma = 0.02, 0.13, and 0.26 which we compared to unperturbed homogeneous chemistry. Our analysis spans a period from Jan. 1974 to Oct. 1994. The results suggest that if lower values of gamma are the norm then we would expect larger ozone losses for highly enhanced aerosol content that for larger values of gamma. The ozone layer is more sensitive to the magnitude of the reaction probability under background conditions than during volcanically active periods. For most conditions, the conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is saturated for reaction probability in the range of laboratory measurements, but is only absolutely saturated following major volcanic eruptions when the heterogeneous loss dominates the losses of N2O5. The ozone loss due to this heterogeneous reaction increases with the increasing chlorine load. Total ozone losses calculated are comparable to ozone losses reported from TOMS and Dobson data.

  18. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  19. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  20. Towards constraining the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of radiocarbon: strategies of stratospheric 14CO2 measurements using AirCore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huilin; Paul, Dipayan; Meijer, Harro; Miller, John; Kivi, Rigel; Krol, Maarten

    2016-04-01

    Radiocarbon (14C) plays an important role in the carbon cycle studies to understand both natural and anthropogenic carbon fluxes, but also in atmospheric chemistry to constrain hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations in the atmosphere. Apart from the enormous 14C emissions from nuclear bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s, radiocarbon is primarily produced in the stratosphere due to the cosmogenic production. To this end, better understanding the stratospheric radiocarbon source is very useful to advance the use of radiocarbon for these applications. However, stratospheric 14C observations have been very limited so that there are large uncertainties on the magnitude and the location of the 14C production as well as the transport of radiocarbon from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Recently we have successfully made stratospheric 14C measurements using AirCore samples from Sodankylä, Northern Finland. AirCore is an innovative atmospheric sampling system, which passively collects atmospheric air samples into a long piece of coiled stainless steel tubing during the descent of a balloon flight. Due to the relatively low cost of the consumables, there is a potential to make such AirCore profiling in other parts of the world on a regular basis. In this study, we simulate the 14C in the atmosphere and assess the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of radiocarbon using the TM5 model. The Sodankylä radiocarbon measurements will be used to verify the performance of the model at high latitude. Besides this, we will also evaluate the influence of different cosmogenic 14C production scenarios and the uncertainties in the OH field on the seasonal cycles of radiocarbon and on the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and based on the results design a strategy to set up a 14C measurement program using AirCore.

  1. Copernicus stratospheric ozone service, 2009–2012: validation, system intercomparison and roles of input data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lefever

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates and discusses the quality of the stratospheric ozone analyses delivered in near real time by the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project during the 3-year period between September 2009 and September 2012. Ozone analyses produced by four different chemical data assimilation (CDA systems are examined and compared: the Integrated Forecast System coupled to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (IFS-MOZART; the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE; the Synoptic Analysis of Chemical Constituents by Advanced Data Assimilation (SACADA; and the Data Assimilation Model based on Transport Model version 3 (TM3DAM. The assimilated satellite ozone retrievals differed for each system; SACADA and TM3DAM assimilated only total ozone observations, BASCOE assimilated profiles for ozone and some related species, while IFS-MOZART assimilated both types of ozone observations. All analyses deliver total column values that agree well with ground-based observations (biases The northern spring 2011 period is studied in more detail to evaluate the ability of the analyses to represent the exceptional ozone depletion event, which happened above the Arctic in March 2011. Offline sensitivity tests are performed during this month and indicate that the differences between the forward models or the assimilation algorithms are much less important than the characteristics of the assimilated data sets. They also show that IFS-MOZART is able to deliver realistic analyses of ozone both in the troposphere and in the stratosphere, but this requires the assimilation of observations from nadir-looking instruments as well as the assimilation of profiles, which are well resolved vertically and extend into the lowermost stratosphere.

  2. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  3. Tiny Ultraviolet Polarimeter for Earth Stratosphere from Space Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevodovskyi, P. V.; Morozhenko, O. V.; Vidmachenko, A. P.; Ivakhiv, O.; Geraimchuk, M.; Zbrutskyi, O.

    2015-09-01

    One of the reasons for climate change (i.e., stratospheric ozone concentrations) is connected with the variations in optical thickness of aerosols in the upper sphere of the atmosphere (at altitudes over 30 km). Therefore, aerosol and gas components of the atmosphere are crucial in the study of the ultraviolet (UV) radiation passing upon the Earth. Moreover, a scrupulous study of aerosol components of the Earth atmosphere at an altitude of 30 km (i.e., stratospheric aerosol), such as the size of particles, the real part of refractive index, optical thickness and its horizontal structure, concentration of ozone or the upper border of the stratospheric ozone layer is an important task in the research of the Earth climate change. At present, the Main Astronomical Observatory of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine, the National Technical University of Ukraine "KPI"and the Lviv Polytechnic National University are engaged in the development of methodologies for the study of stratospheric aerosol by means of ultraviolet polarimeter using a microsatellite. So fare, there has been created a sample of a tiny ultraviolet polarimeter (UVP) which is considered to be a basic model for carrying out space experiments regarding the impact of the changes in stratospheric aerosols on both global and local climate.

  4. Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelebogile Mathole

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a comparison of trends in lower stratospheric temperatures and summer zonal wind fields based on 27 years of reanalysis data and output from hindcast simulations using a coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation model (OAGCM. Lower stratospheric ozone in the OAGCM was relaxed to the observed climatology and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations were neglected. In the reanalysis, lower stratospheric ozone fields were better represented than in the OAGCM. The spring lower stratospheric/ upper tropospheric cooling in the polar cap observed in the reanalysis, which is caused by a direct ozone depletion in the past two decades and is in agreement with previous studies, did not appear in the OAGCM. The corresponding summer tropospheric response also differed between data sets. In the reanalysis, a statistically significant poleward trend of the summer jet position was found, whereas no such trend was found in the OAGCM. Furthermore, the jet position in the reanalysis exhibited larger interannual variability than that in the OAGCM. We conclude that these differences are caused by the absence of long-term lower stratospheric ozone changes in the OAGCM. Improper representation or non-inclusion of such ozone variability in a prediction model could adversely affect the accuracy of the predictability of summer rainfall forecasts over South Africa.

  5. Stratospheric ozone: History and concepts and interactions with climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekki S.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Although in relatively low concentration of a few molecules per million of e e air molecules, atmospheric ozone (trioxygen O3 is essential to sustaining life on the surface of the Earth. Indeed, by absorbing solar radiation between 240 and 320 nm, it shields living organisms including humans from the very harmful ultraviolet radiation UV-B. About 90% of the ozone resides in the stratosphere, a region that extends from the tropopause, whose altitude ranges from 7 km at the poles to 17 km in the tropics, to the stratopause located at about 50 km altitude. Stratospheric ozone is communally referred as the « ozone layer ». Unlike the atmosphere surrounding it, the stratosphere is vertically stratified and stable because the temperature increases with height within it. This particularity originates from heating produced by the absorption of UV radiation by stratospheric ozone. The present chapter describes the main mechanisms that govern the natural balance of ozone in the stratosphere, and its disruption under the influence of human activities.

  6. Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Löffler

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry–climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

  7. Impact of Idealized Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Future Ocean and Land Carbon Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjiputra, J.; Lauvset, S.

    2017-12-01

    Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In one of the scenarios, the model able to project future warming below 2 degree toward 2100, despite greatier warming persists in the high latitudes. When SAI is terminated in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 (as compared to 0.05 K yr-1 under RCP8.5) is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature rapidly returns to levels close to the reference state. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. Despite inducing little impact on surface acidification, in the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area. Since the deep ocean provides vital ecosystem function and services, e.g., fish stocks, this accelerated changes

  8. Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set is a merged record of stratospheric ozone and water vapor measurements taken by a number of...

  9. The influence of regional Arctic sea-ice decline on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Christine; Bracegirdle, Thomas; Shuckburgh, Emily; Haynes, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Arctic sea-ice extent has rapidly declined over the past few decades, and most climate models project a continuation of this trend during the 21st century in response to greenhouse gas forcing. A number of recent studies have shown that this sea-ice loss induces vertically propagating Rossby waves, which weaken the stratospheric polar vortex and increase the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). SSWs have been shown to increase the probability of a negative NAO in the following weeks, thereby driving anomalous weather conditions over Europe and other mid-latitude regions. In contrast, other studies have shown that Arctic sea-ice loss strengthens the polar vortex, increasing the probability of a positive NAO. Sun et al. (2015) suggest these conflicting results may be due to the region of sea-ice loss considered. They find that if only regions within the Arctic Circle are considered in sea-ice projections, the polar vortex weakens; if only regions outwith the Arctic Circle are considered, the polar vortex strengthens. This is because the anomalous Rossby waves forced in the former/latter scenario constructively/destructively interfere with climatological Rossby waves, thus enhancing/suppressing upward wave propagation. In this study, we investigate whether Sun et al.'s results are robust to a different model. We also divide the regions of sea-ice loss they considered into further sub-regions, in order to examine the regional differences in more detail. We do this by using the intermediate complexity climate model, IGCM4, which has a well resolved stratosphere and does a good job of representing stratospheric processes. Several simulations are run in atmosphere only mode, where one is a control experiment and the others are perturbation experiments. In the control run annually repeating historical mean surface conditions are imposed at the lower boundary, whereas in each perturbation run the model is forced by SST perturbations imposed in a specific

  10. Convectively Driven Tropopause-Level Cooling and Its Influences on Stratospheric Moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joowan; Randel, William J.; Birner, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Characteristics of the tropopause-level cooling associated with tropical deep convection are examined using CloudSat radar and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation measurements. Extreme deep convection is sampled based on the cloud top height (>17 km) from CloudSat, and colocated temperature profiles from COSMIC are composited around the deep convection. Response of moisture to the tropopause-level cooling is also examined in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using microwave limb sounder measurements. The composite temperature shows an anomalous warming in the troposphere and a significant cooling near the tropopause (at 16-19 km) when deep convection occurs over the western Pacific, particularly during periods with active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The composite of the tropopause cooling has a large horizontal scale ( 6,000 km in longitude) with minimum temperature anomaly of -2 K, and it lasts more than 2 weeks with support of mesoscale convective clusters embedded within the envelope of the MJO. The water vapor anomalies show strong correlation with the temperature anomalies (i.e., dry anomaly in the cold anomaly), showing that the convectively driven tropopause cooling actively dehydrate the lower stratosphere in the western Pacific region. The moisture is also affected by anomalous Matsuno-Gill-type circulation associated with the cold anomaly, in which dry air spreads over a wide range in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). These results suggest that convectively driven tropopause cooling and associated transient circulation play an important role in the large-scale dehydration process in the TTL.

  11. Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

    2016-11-01

    Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. SWIFT: Semi-empirical and numerically efficient stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

    2015-01-01

    The SWIFT model is a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone. It is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs), Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs). For computing time reasons these models often do not employ full stratospheric chem- istry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This can lead to insufficient representation between stratosphere and troposphere. The SWIFT stratospheric ozone chem...

  13. A study of the radiative forcing and global warming potentials of hydrofluorocarbons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Hua; Wu Jinxiu; Lu Peng

    2011-01-01

    We developed a new radiation parameterization of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), using the correlated k-distribution method and the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption (HITRAN) 2004 database. We examined the instantaneous and stratospheric adjusted radiative efficiencies of HFCs for clear-sky and all-sky conditions. We also calculated the radiative forcing of HFCs from preindustrial times to the present and for future scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, in short). Global warming potential and global temperature potential were then examined and compared on the basis of the calculated radiative efficiencies. Finally, we discuss surface temperature changes due to various HFC emissions.

  14. International Workshop on Stratospheric Aerosols: Measurements, Properties, and Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, Rudolf F. (Editor)

    1991-01-01

    Following a mandate by the International Aerosol Climatology Program under the auspices of International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics International Radiation Commission, 45 scientists from five nations convened to discuss relevant issues associated with the measurement, properties, and effects of stratospheric aerosols. A summary is presented of the discussions on formation and evolution, transport and fate, effects on climate, role in heterogeneous chemistry, and validation of lidar and satellite remote sensing of stratospheric aerosols. Measurements are recommended of the natural (background) and the volcanically enhanced aerosol (sulfuric acid and silica particles), the exhaust of shuttle, civil aviation and supersonic aircraft operations (alumina, soot, and ice particles), and polar stratospheric clouds (ice, condensed nitric and hydrochloric acids).

  15. Effects of stratospheric perturbations on the solar radiation budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luther, F.M.

    1978-04-01

    The changes in solar absorption and in local heating rates due to perturbations to O 3 and NO 2 concentrations caused by stratospheric injection of NO/sub x/ and CFM pollutants are assessed. The changes in species concentration profiles are derived from theoretical calculations using a transport-kinetics model. Because of significant changes in our understanding of stratospheric chemistry during the past year, the assessment of the effect of stratospheric perturbations on the solar radiation budget differs from previous assessments. Previously, a reduction in O 3 due to an NO/sub x/ injection caused a net decrease in the gaseous solar absorption;now the same perturbation leads to a net increase. The implication of these changes on the surface temperature is also discussed

  16. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  17. Tibetan Plateau glacier and hydrological change under stratospheric aerosol injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, D.

    2017-12-01

    As an important inland freshwater resource, mountain glaciers are highly related to human life, they provide water for many large rivers and play a very important role in regional water cycles. The response of mountain glaciers to future climate change is a topic of concern especially to the many people who rely on glacier-fed rivers for purposes such as irrigation. Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection is a method of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases. How the geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection affects the mass balance of mountain glaciers and adjacent river discharge is little understood. In this study, we use regional climate model WRF and catchment-based river model CaMa-Flood to study the impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection to Tibetan Plateau glacier mass balance and adjacent river discharge. To facilitate mountain glacier mass balance study, we improve the description of mountain glacier in the land surface scheme of WRF. The improvements include: (1) a fine mesh nested in WRF horizontal grid to match the highly non-uniform spatial distribution of the mountain glaciers, (2) revising the radiation flux at the glacier surface considering the surrounding terrain. We use the projections of five Earth system models for CMIP5 rcp45 and GeoMIP G4 scenarios to drive the WRF and CaMa-Flood models. The G4 scenario, which uses stratospheric aerosols to reduce the incoming shortwave while applying the rcp4.5 greenhouse gas forcing, starts stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection at a rate of 5 Tg per year over the period 2020-2069. The ensemble projections suggest relatively slower glacier mass loss rates and reduced river discharge at Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions under geoengineering scenario by stratospheric aerosol injection.

  18. Variability of Irreversible Poleward Transport in the Lower Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark; Douglass, Anne; Newman, Paul; Nash, Eric; Witte, Jacquelyn; Ziemke, Jerry

    2011-01-01

    The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.

  19. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  20. Structure of Warm Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaberg, S.; Uhrenholt, H.

    2009-01-01

    We study the structure of nuclei in the energy region between the ground state and the neutron separation energy, here called warm nuclei. The onset of chaos in the nucleus as excitation energy is increased is briefly reviewed. Chaos implies fluctuations of energies and wave functions qualitatively the same for all chaotic nuclei. On the other hand, large structure effects are seen, e.g. in the level-density function at same excitation energies. A microscopic model for the level density is reviewed and we discuss effects on structure of the total level-density function, parity enhancement, and the spin distribution function. Comparisons to data are performed at the neutron separation energy for all observed nuclei, and structure of the level-density function for a few measured cases. The role of structure effects in the level-density function for fission dynamics is exemplified.

  1. Interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Norman; Palma, Guillermo; Zambrano, David; Avelino, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ m α ρ e β form, where ρ m and ρ e are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w m and w e of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used

  2. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  3. Impact and mitigation of stratospheric ozone depletion by chemical rockets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcdonald, A.J.

    1992-03-01

    The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) conducted a workshop in conjunction with the 1991 AIAA Joint Propulsion Conference in Sacramento, California, to assess the impact of chemical rocket propulsion on the environment. The workshop included recognized experts from the fields of atmospheric physics and chemistry, solid rocket propulsion, liquid rocket propulsion, government, and environmental agencies, and representatives from several responsible environmental organizations. The conclusion from this workshop relative to stratospheric ozone depletion was that neither solid nor liquid rocket launchers have a significant impact on stratospheric ozone depletion, and that there is no real significant difference between the two

  4. Presence of stratospheric humidity in the ozone column depletion on the west coast of South America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, M. Luis; Gutierrez, O. Luis; Morales, S. Luis; Universidad de Chile, Santiago; Torres, C. Arnaldo

    2006-01-01

    The ozone column depletion over the western coast of South America has been previously explained, based on the existence of winds in the area of the depletion, which cause compression and thinning of the ozone layer. However, the presence of humidity and methane transported by these winds to the stratosphere where the ozone depletion is present gives evidence that these compounds also participate in the depletion of the ozone layer. These two compounds, humidity and methane, are analysed during the ozone depletion of January, 1998. It is observed that when humidity presents fluctuations, ozone has fluctuations too. A maximum of humidity corresponds to a minimum of ozone, but there is a shift in altitude between them. This shift is observed in the stratosphere and upper troposphere and corresponds to approximately 500 m. It is important to point out that during this event El Nino was present and the sources of methane are the Amazon forest and the Pacific Ocean. The data for this study was obtained from NASA and HALOE

  5. A sensitivity analysis of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere. [Mt. Fuego, Guatemala eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, C. F.

    1979-01-01

    A computer sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the uncertainties involved in the calculation of volcanic aerosol dispersion in the stratosphere using a 2 dimensional model. The Fuego volcanic event of 1974 was used. Aerosol dispersion processes that were included are: transport, sedimentation, gas phase sulfur chemistry, and aerosol growth. Calculated uncertainties are established from variations in the stratospheric aerosol layer decay times at 37 latitude for each dispersion process. Model profiles are also compared with lidar measurements. Results of the computer study are quite sensitive (factor of 2) to the assumed volcanic aerosol source function and the large variations in the parameterized transport between 15 and 20 km at subtropical latitudes. Sedimentation effects are uncertain by up to a factor of 1.5 because of the lack of aerosol size distribution data. The aerosol chemistry and growth, assuming that the stated mechanisms are correct, are essentially complete in several months after the eruption and cannot explain the differences between measured and modeled results.

  6. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  7. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  8. Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schario, Tracy A.

    A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

  9. Rapid and extensive warming following cessation of solar radiation management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCusker, Kelly E; Armour, Kyle C; Bitz, Cecilia M; Battisti, David S

    2014-01-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to alleviate the climate impacts of ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, its efficacy depends on its indefinite maintenance, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure or global cooperation breakdown. Here, we consider the scenario in which SRM—via stratospheric aerosol injection—is terminated abruptly following an implementation period during which anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued. We show that upon cessation of SRM, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside 20th century climate variability bounds. Global mean precipitation also increases rapidly following cessation, however spatial patterns are less coherent than temperature, with almost half of land areas experiencing drying trends. We further show that the rate of warming—of critical importance for ecological and human systems—is principally controlled by background GHG levels. Thus, a risk of abrupt and dangerous warming is inherent to the large-scale implementation of SRM, and can be diminished only through concurrent strong reductions in anthropogenic GHG emissions. (paper)

  10. A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, N. Luke; Maycock, Amanda C.; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Joshi, Manoj M.; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A.

    2014-01-01

    State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever1. Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations1,2. Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks3-5. PMID:25729440

  11. SAGE measurements of the stratospheric aerosol dispersion and loading from the Soufriere Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccormick, M. P.; Kent, G. S.; Yue, G. K.; Cunnold, D. M.

    1981-01-01

    Explosions of the Soufriere volcano on the Caribbean Island of St. Vincent reduced two major stratospheric plumes which the stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) satellite tracked to West Africa and the North Atlantic Ocean. The total mass of the stratospheric ejecta measured is less than 0.5% of the global stratospheric aerosol burden. No significant temperature or climate perturbation is expected. It is found that the movement and dispersion of the plumes agree with those deduced from high altitude meteorological data and dispersion theory. The stratospheric aerosol dispersion and loading from the Soufrier volcano was measured.

  12. Driving Roles of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Thermal Anomalies in Intensification and Persistence of the Arctic Superstorm in 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei; Zhang, Jing; Fu, Yunfei; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2017-10-01

    Intense synoptic-scale storms have been more frequently observed over the Arctic during recent years. Specifically, a superstorm hit the Arctic Ocean in August 2012 and preceded a new record low Arctic sea ice extent. In this study, the major physical processes responsible for the storm's intensification and persistence are explored through a series of numerical modeling experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. It is found that thermal anomalies in troposphere as well as lower stratosphere jointly lead to the development of this superstorm. Thermal contrast between the unusually warm Siberia and the relatively cold Arctic Ocean results in strong troposphere baroclinicity and upper level jet, which contribute to the storm intensification initially. On the other hand, Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV) associated with the thermal anomaly in lower stratosphere further intensifies the upper level jet and accordingly contributes to a drastic intensification of the storm. Stacking with the enhanced surface low, TPV intensifies further, which sustains the storm to linger over the Arctic Ocean for an extended period.

  13. Does Extreme El Niño Have a Different Effect on the Stratosphere in Boreal Winter Than Its Moderate Counterpart?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Chen, Quanliang; Ding, Ruiqiang; Zhang, Wenxia; Li, Yang

    2018-03-01

    A robust impact of El Niño on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratosphere has been demonstrated by previous studies, although whether this applies to extreme El Niño is uncertain. The time evolution of the response of the NH stratospheric vortex to extreme El Niño, compared with that to moderate eastern Pacific El Niño, is addressed by means of composite analysis using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis data set from 1980 to 2016. Lead-lag analysis indicates that the El Niño signal actually leads the stratospheric response by 2 months. Considering the time lag, the signal of December-January-February El Niño in the NH stratospheric vortex should mature in the February-March-April season (late winter/early spring). The patterns of circulation and temperature for late winter/early spring during extreme and moderate El Niño events are significant, exhibiting similar structure. The results are confirmed with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 model, which is forced with observed SSTs of extreme and moderate El Niño in winter (December-January-February) to analyze the day-to-day propagation of their signals. Note that the magnitudes of the stratospheric responses are much larger in the case of extreme El Niño, as stronger upward propagation of planetary waves leads to a weaker northern polar vortex than during moderate El Niño events.

  14. Air Revitalization System Enables Excursions to the Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Paragon Space Development Corporation, based in Tucson, Arizona has had a long history of collaboration with NASA, including developing a modular air purification system under the Commercial Crew Development Program, designed to support the commercial space sector. Using that device and other NASA technology, startup company World View is now gearing up to take customers on helium balloon rides to the stratosphere.

  15. An ultrahot gas-giant exoplanet with a stratosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Thomas M; Sing, David K; Kataria, Tiffany; Goyal, Jayesh; Nikolov, Nikolay; Wakeford, Hannah R; Deming, Drake; Marley, Mark S; Amundsen, David S; Ballester, Gilda E; Barstow, Joanna K; Ben-Jaffel, Lotfi; Bourrier, Vincent; Buchhave, Lars A; Cohen, Ofer; Ehrenreich, David; García Muñoz, Antonio; Henry, Gregory W; Knutson, Heather; Lavvas, Panayotis; Etangs, Alain Lecavelier des; Lewis, Nikole K; López-Morales, Mercedes; Mandell, Avi M; Sanz-Forcada, Jorge; Tremblin, Pascal; Lupu, Roxana

    2017-08-02

    Infrared radiation emitted from a planet contains information about the chemical composition and vertical temperature profile of its atmosphere. If upper layers are cooler than lower layers, molecular gases will produce absorption features in the planetary thermal spectrum. Conversely, if there is a stratosphere-where temperature increases with altitude-these molecular features will be observed in emission. It has been suggested that stratospheres could form in highly irradiated exoplanets, but the extent to which this occurs is unresolved both theoretically and observationally. A previous claim for the presence of a stratosphere remains open to question, owing to the challenges posed by the highly variable host star and the low spectral resolution of the measurements. Here we report a near-infrared thermal spectrum for the ultrahot gas giant WASP-121b, which has an equilibrium temperature of approximately 2,500 kelvin. Water is resolved in emission, providing a detection of an exoplanet stratosphere at 5σ confidence. These observations imply that a substantial fraction of incident stellar radiation is retained at high altitudes in the atmosphere, possibly by absorbing chemical species such as gaseous vanadium oxide and titanium oxide.

  16. Chlorine activation and ozone destruction in the northern lowermost stratosphere

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lelieveld, J; Bregman, A; Scheeren, HA; Strom, J; Carslaw, KS; Fischer, H; Siegmund, PC; Arnold, F

    1999-01-01

    We report aircraft measurements from the Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiments by Aircraft Measurements (STREAM) II campaign, performed during February 1995 from Kiruna, northern Sweden, near 67 degrees N latitude. We have measured trace species, e.g., O-3, nitrogen compounds, HCl, hydrocarbons, CO,

  17. Sulfuric acid deposition from stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2009-07-28

    We used a general circulation model of Earth\\'s climate to conduct geoengineering experiments involving stratospheric injection of sulfur dioxide and analyzed the resulting deposition of sulfate. When sulfur dioxide is injected into the tropical or Arctic stratosphere, the main additional surface deposition of sulfate occurs in midlatitude bands, because of strong cross-tropopause flux in the jet stream regions. We used critical load studies to determine the effects of this increase in sulfate deposition on terrestrial ecosystems by assuming the upper limit of hydration of all sulfate aerosols into sulfuric acid. For annual injection of 5 Tg of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere or 3 Tg of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere, neither the maximum point value of sulfate deposition of approximately 1.5 mEq m−2 a−1 nor the largest additional deposition that would result from geoengineering of approximately 0.05 mEq m−2 a−1 is enough to negatively impact most ecosystems.

  18. Sulfuric acid deposition from stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben; Robock, Alan; Oman, Luke; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Marquardt, Allison B.

    2009-01-01

    We used a general circulation model of Earth's climate to conduct geoengineering experiments involving stratospheric injection of sulfur dioxide and analyzed the resulting deposition of sulfate. When sulfur dioxide is injected into the tropical or Arctic stratosphere, the main additional surface deposition of sulfate occurs in midlatitude bands, because of strong cross-tropopause flux in the jet stream regions. We used critical load studies to determine the effects of this increase in sulfate deposition on terrestrial ecosystems by assuming the upper limit of hydration of all sulfate aerosols into sulfuric acid. For annual injection of 5 Tg of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere or 3 Tg of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere, neither the maximum point value of sulfate deposition of approximately 1.5 mEq m−2 a−1 nor the largest additional deposition that would result from geoengineering of approximately 0.05 mEq m−2 a−1 is enough to negatively impact most ecosystems.

  19. Stratospheric Ozone Reactive Chemicals Generated by Space Launches Worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-11-01

    I ODCs). Their carbon - chlorine bond is severed in the stratosphere by solar photolysis or reaction. Once the carbon-chlorine bond is broken, the...include the Russian Proton and Energia , and the Chinese Long March series. Roughly half (seven per year) of the Ariane 4 launches use two solid strap-ons

  20. Reduction of photosynthetically active radiation under extreme stratospheric aerosol loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.; Zardecki, A.

    1981-08-01

    The recently published hypothesis that the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions might be caused by an obstruction of sunlight is tested by model calculations. First we compute the total mass of stratospheric aerosols under normal atmospheric conditions for four different (measured) aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles. For comparison, the stratospheric dust masses after four volcanic eruptions are also evaluated. Detailed solar radiative transfer calculations are then performed for artificially increased aerosol amounts until the postulated darkness scenario is obtained. Thus we find that a total stratospheric aerosol mass between 1 and 4 times 10 1 g is sufficient to reduce photosynthesis to 10 -3 of normal. We also infer from this result tha the impact of a 0.4- to 3-km-diameter asteroid or a close encounter with a Halley-size comet may deposit that amount of particulates into the stratosphere. The darkness scenario of Alvarez et al. is thus shown to be a possible extinction mechanism, even with smaller size asteroids of comets than previously estimated

  1. Tritium Records to Trace Stratospheric Moisture Inputs in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourré, E.; Landais, A.; Cauquoin, A.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Lipenkov, V.; Petit, J.-R.

    2018-03-01

    Better assessing the dynamic of stratosphere-troposphere exchange is a key point to improve our understanding of the climate dynamic in the East Antarctica Plateau, a region where stratospheric inputs are expected to be important. Although tritium (3H or T), a nuclide naturally produced mainly in the stratosphere and rapidly entering the water cycle as HTO, seems a first-rate tracer to study these processes, tritium data are very sparse in this region. We present the first high-resolution measurements of tritium concentration over the last 50 years in three snow pits drilled at the Vostok station. Natural variability of the tritium records reveals two prominent frequencies, one at about 10 years (to be related to the solar Schwabe cycles) and the other one at a shorter periodicity: despite dating uncertainty at this short scale, a good correlation is observed between 3H and Na+ and an anticorrelation between 3H and δ18O measured on an individual pit. The outputs from the LMDZ Atmospheric General Circulation Model including stable water isotopes and tritium show the same 3H-δ18O anticorrelation and allow further investigation on the associated mechanism. At the interannual scale, the modeled 3H variability matches well with the Southern Annular Mode index. At the seasonal scale, we show that modeled stratospheric tritium inputs in the troposphere are favored in winter cold and dry conditions.

  2. UV spectroscopy applied to stratospheric chemistry, methods and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsen, K.

    1996-03-01

    The publication from the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) deals with an investigation done on stratospheric chemistry by UV spectroscopy. The scientific goals are briefly discussed, and it gives the results from the measuring and analysing techniques used in the investigation. 6 refs., 11 figs.

  3. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  4. Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Ploeger

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using a Lagrangian chemistry transport model. We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe, and (ii into the Northern Hemisphere (NH extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5 % in the tropical pipe and 15 % in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite hydrogen cyanide (HCN and carbon monoxide (CO observations, confirming that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the pollutants transported quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

  5. Titan's Stratospheric Condensibles at High Northern Latitudes During Northern Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, R.; Achterberg, R.

    2012-01-01

    The Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) instrument on board Voyager 1 caught the first glimpse of an unidentified particulate feature in Titan's stratosphere that spectrally peaks at 221 per centimeter. Until recently, this feature that we have termed 'the haystack,' has been seen persistently at high northern latitudes with the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument onboard Cassini, The strength of the haystack emission feature diminishes rapidly with season, becoming drastically reduced at high northern latitudes, as Titan transitions from northern winter into spring, In contrast to IRIS whose shortest wavenumber was 200 per centimeter, CIRS extends down to 10 per centimeter, thus revealing an entirely unexplored spectral region in which nitrile ices have numerous broad lattice vibration features, Unlike the haystack, which is only found at high northern latitudes during northern winter/early northern spring, this geometrically thin nitrile cloud pervades Titan's lower stratosphere, spectrally peaking at 160 per centimeter, and is almost global in extent spanning latitudes 85 N to 600 S, The inference of nitrile ices are consistent with the highly restricted altitude ranges over which these features are observed, and appear to be dominated by a mixture of HCN and HC3N, The narrow range in altitude over which the nitrile ices extend is unlike the haystack, whose vertical distribution is significantly broader, spanning roughly 70 kilometers in altitude in Titan's lower stratosphere, The nitrile clouds that CIRS observes are located in a dynamically stable region of Titan's atmosphere, whereas CH4 clouds, which ordinarily form in the troposphere, form in a more dynamically unstable region, where convective cloud systems tend to occur. In the unusual situation where Titan's tropopause cools significantly from the HASI 70.5K temperature minimum, CH4 should condense in Titan's lower stratosphere, just like the aforementioned nitrile clouds, although

  6. A refined method for calculating equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald; Ostermöller, Jennifer; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dhomse, Sandip; Jöckel, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    Chlorine and bromine atoms lead to catalytic depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Therefore the use and production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) containing chlorine and bromine is regulated by the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) has been adopted as an appropriate metric to describe the combined effects of chlorine and bromine released from halocarbons on stratospheric ozone. Here we revisit the concept of calculating EESC. We derive a refined formulation of EESC based on an advanced concept of ODS propagation into the stratosphere and reactive halogen release. A new transit time distribution is introduced in which the age spectrum for an inert tracer is weighted with the release function for inorganic halogen from the source gases. This distribution is termed the release time distribution. We show that a much better agreement with inorganic halogen loading from the chemistry transport model TOMCAT is achieved compared with using the current formulation. The refined formulation shows EESC levels in the year 1980 for the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, which are significantly lower than previously calculated. The year 1980 is commonly used as a benchmark to which EESC must return in order to reach significant progress towards halogen and ozone recovery. Assuming that - under otherwise unchanged conditions - the EESC value must return to the same level in order for ozone to fully recover, we show that it will take more than 10 years longer than estimated in this region of the stratosphere with the current method for calculation of EESC. We also present a range of sensitivity studies to investigate the effect of changes and uncertainties in the fractional release factors and in the assumptions on the shape of the release time distributions. We further discuss the value of EESC as a proxy for future evolution of inorganic halogen loading under changing atmospheric dynamics using simulations from

  7. Balance of the tropospheric ozone and its relation to stratospheric intrusions indicated by cosmogenic radionuclides. Technical progress report, 1 November 1978-30 June 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Poetzl, K.; Sladkovic, R.; Jaeger, H.; Mueller, H.

    The balance of the tropospheric ozone as a function of atmospheric pollutants, tropospheric transport, and stratospheric intrusions is under active investigation. Continuous recordings of the ozone concentration at three levels (3000 m, 1800 m, and 700 m a.s.l.) and of the cosmogenic radionuclides Be 7 , P 32 , P 33 , and the CO 2 are available and used for subject purposes. Results of a statistical evaluation concerning the frequency of high concentrations (> 70 ppB) of the tropospheric ozone are presented and possible sources discussed. Observations of changes in the fine structure of the ozone profile in the lower stratosphere after solar events are shown by balloon-borne ozone soundings up to 35 km altitude and discussed in connection with parameters of the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. Monitoring of the stratospheric aerosol layer by lidar was continued. The accuracy of these measurements was considerably enhanced by significant system improvements. Intercomparisons with the results of nearby Dobson stations allowed conclusions to be drawn on the suitability of a filter spectrophotometer for the determination of the total ozone. Solar-terrestrial relationships were investigated and are discussed

  8. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  9. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  10. Early work on the stratospheric ozone depletion-CFC issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, M.

    2012-12-01

    I became involved with the atmospheric chemistry of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) shortly after joining Sherry Rowland's research group at the University of California, Irvine, in 1973. CFCs had been detected in the troposphere by James Lovelock in 1971, and the question we set out to answer was the fate of these compounds of industrial origin in the environment, as well as possibly identifying any consequences of their accumulation in the atmosphere. After examining many potential sinks for these compounds we realized that because of their unusual stability the most likely destruction process was photolysis in the stratosphere. I carried out measurements of the absorption spectra of these compounds in the near ultraviolet; previous work involved only spectra in the far ultraviolet, not relevant for atmospheric chemistry. The results indicated that photolysis would take place in the upper stratosphere. I subsequently carried out calculations using one-dimensional atmospheric models to estimate their atmospheric residence times, which turned out to be many decades. We realized that the chlorine atoms generated by photolysis of the CFCs would participate in a catalytic chain reaction that would efficiently destroy ozone. Furthermore, we estimated that the amount of CFCs produced industrially was comparable to the amount of nitric oxide produced naturally in the stratosphere by the decomposition of nitrous oxide; work by Paul Crutzen and Harold Johnston had indicated that the abundance of ozone in the stratosphere was controlled by nitric oxide. We then formulated the hypothesis that the continued release of CFCs to the environment posed a threat to the stability of the ozone layer, and published our results in the journal Nature in 1974. The publication was noticed almost exclusively by the community of experts in stratospheric chemistry, and hence Sherry Rowland and I decided at that time that it was our responsibility to communicate this finding to society at large

  11. Solar wind control of stratospheric temperatures in Jupiter's auroral regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, James Andrew; Orton, Glenn; Kasaba, Yasumasa; Sato, Takao M.; Tao, Chihiro; Waite, J. Hunter; Cravens, Thomas; Houston, Stephen; Fletcher, Leigh; Irwin, Patrick; Greathouse, Thomas K.

    2017-10-01

    Auroral emissions are the process through which the interaction of a planet’s atmosphere and its external magnetosphere can be studied. Jupiter exhibits auroral emission at a multitude of wavelengths including the X-ray, ultraviolet and near-infrared. Enhanced emission of CH4 and other stratospheric hydrocarbons is also observed coincident with Jupiter’s shorter-wavelength auroral emission (e.g. Caldwell et al., 1980, Icarus 44, 667-675, Kostiuk et al., 1993, JGR 98, 18823). This indicates that auroral processes modify the thermal structure and composition of the auroral stratosphere. The exact mechanism responsible for this auroral-related heating of the stratosphere has however remained elusive (Sinclair et al., 2017a, Icarus 292, 182-207, Sinclair et al., 2017b, GRL, 44, 5345-5354). We will present an analysis of 7.8-μm images of Jupiter measured by COMICS (Cooled Mid-Infrared Camera and Spectrograph, Kataza et al., 2000, Proc. SPIE(4008), 1144-1152) on the Subaru telescope. These images were acquired on January 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, February 4, 5th and May 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th in 2017, allowing the daily variability of Jupiter’s auroral-related stratospheric heating to be tracked. Preliminary results suggest lower stratospheric temperatures are directly forced by the solar wind dynamical pressure. The southern auroral hotspot exhibited a significant increase in brightness temperature over a 24-hour period. Over the same time period, a solar wind propagation model (Tao et al. 2005, JGR 110, A11208) predicts a strong increase in the solar wind dynamical pressure at Jupiter.

  12. Warm and wet conditions in the Arctic region during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluijs, A.; Schouten, S.; Donders, T.H.; Schoon, P.L.; Röhl, U.; Reichart, G.-J.; Sangiorgi, F.; Kim, J.-H.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.; Brinkhuis, H.

    2009-01-01

    Several episodes of abrupt and transient warming, each lasting between 50,000 and 200,000 years, punctuated the long-term warming during the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene (58 to 51 Myr ago) epochs1,2. These hyperthermal events, such as the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (EMT2) that took place about

  13. Gondola development for CNES stratospheric balloons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, A.; Audoubert, J.; Cau, M.; Evrard, J.; Verdier, N.

    (over the line of sight) than with dedicated RF system, which requires balloon visibility from the ground station. For long duration flights (3 months) of Infra Red Montgolfieres, a house keeping gondola has been developed, using the Inmarsat C standard to have communication all around the world (up to N or S 80 ° latitude) with an automatic switching between the 4 geostationnary Inmarsat satellites. After validation flights performed from Bauru / Brazil. (2000 & 2001) and Kiruna/Sweden (2002), the first operational flights took place from Bauru in February 2003 during ENVISAT validation campaign. The next flights will be realized in the framework of the Hibiscus campaign planned in February 2004 in Bauru.. The Balloon Division was involved in the Franco / Japanese HSFD II project which consists to drop a mock-up of the Japanese HOPE-X space shuttle from a stratospheric balloon to validate its flight from the altitude of 30 km. We developed a specific gondola as a service module for the HOPE-X shuttle, providing power and GPS radio-frequency signal during the balloon flight phase, telemetry end remote control radio frequency links and separation system with pyrotechnic cutters for the drop of the shuttle. A successful flight was performed at Kiruna in July 2003. Concerning gondola with pointing system, the study of a big g-ray telescope (8 m of focal length), started by the end of 2002. For this 1 ton gondola, the telescope stabilization system will be based on control moment gyro (CMG). The CMG system has been designed and will be manufactured and validated during 2004. The first flight of this g-ray gondola is planned for 2006. The progress, status and future plans concerning these gondola developments will be presented.

  14. Energy and global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, S.K.; Fairchild, P.D.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are used in a number of applications, and volumes of CFCs used grew at a tremendous pace during the 1960s and 1970s. However, in the mid-1980s, it was confirmed that these extremely useful chemicals contribute to the destruction of stratospheric ozone. These chemicals are being phased out of use rapidly to protect the ozone layer and it is very important that the replacements for CFSs do not result in a net increase in global warming by introducing less efficient processes that lead to higher energy use and increased carbon dioxide emissions. A study was conducted to identify those alternative chemicals and technologies that could replace CFCs in energy related applications before the year 2000, and to assess the total potential impact of these alternatives on global warming. The analysis for this project included an estimate of the direct effects from the release of blowing agents, refrigerants, and solvents into the atmosphere and the indirect effects in the form of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from energy use for commercial and residential heating and cooling, household and commercial refrigeration, building and automobile air-conditioning, and general metal and electronics solvent cleaning. The discussion in this paper focuses on those aspects of the study relevant to refrigeration and air-conditioning. In general the use of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) alternatives for CFCs lead to large and sometimes dramatic reduction in total equivalent warming impact (TEWI), lifetime equivalent CO 2 emission. Most of the reductions result from decreased direct effects without significant changes in energy use. 3 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  15. Production of odd nitrogen in the stratosphere and mesosphere - An intercomparison of source strengths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, C. H.; Frederick, J. E.; Stolarski, R. S.

    1980-01-01

    Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), nuclear explosions, lightning, solar proton events (SPEs), relativistic electron precipitation, and meteors are related to the oxidation of nitrous oxide by comparing several sources of odd nitrogen (ON) in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Published O3 and N2O data show that ON produced by the reaction of O(1D) with N2O peaks between 25 and 35 km; the GCRs add approximately the same amount of ON as N2O oxidation at the solar minimum for geographic latitudes over 50 deg. Nuclear explosions in 1961-1962 added 1.1 and 2.2 x 10 to the 34th NO molecules each, and SPEs produced greater amounts of ON above 50 deg than N2O oxidation during 1958 through 1960, and in 1972.

  16. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  17. Global Warming Impact: Flood Events, Wet-Dry Conditions and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agriculture is weather-dependent so a significant alteration in the world climate would cause lot of changes in agricultural practice and agricultural productivity in the world. For man to feed himself adequately man must adjust his food production activities in line with the changes in the weather and climate. This paper ...

  18. Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

    2018-05-01

    Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

  19. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  20. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  1. Constraining the trigger for an ancient warming episode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-08-01

    The Paleocene epoch (˜66-56 million years ago) was sandwiched between sudden climate shifts and mass extinctions. The boundary between the end of the Paleocene and the beginning of the Eocene (the P-E boundary) saw the global average temperature soar by 5°C over a few thousand years, leading to a pronounced reorganization of both terrestrial and oceanic plant and animal communities. The P-E boundary warming was triggered by an influx of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the influx's ultimate trigger is still being debated. Other prominent warming events within the Paleogene (˜66-23 million years ago), the broad time span that encompasses the Paleocene and Eocene, have been linked to regularly recurring changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit that take place on 100,000- and 405,000-year cycles. Proponents of this view suggest that an alignment of the two cycles could lead to the warming of deep ocean waters, melting frozen methane and triggering an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, some studies have suggested that the P-E boundary warming was instead the product of geological processes, where carbon-rich rocks were baked by injected magma, which eventually liberated the carbon to the atmosphere. Deciding between proposed explanations for the cause of the P-E warming, whether they are astronomical or geological, depends on accurately pinning the event in time. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, doi:10.1029/2010GC003426, 2011)

  2. Characteristics of stratospheric ozone intrusions into the lower free troposphere in subtropical East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou-Yang, C. F.; Lin, J. R.; Yen, M. C.; Sheu, G. R.; Wang, J. L.; Lin, N. H.

    2017-12-01

    Stratospheric intrusion (SI) is mainly induced by tropopause folds, frontal passages, cutoff lows, and surface pressure systems. Ozone can be increased rapidly by the SI with decreased humidity and other primary air pollutants in the lower free troposphere. We present 5 years of ozone observed at Lulin Atmospheric Background Station (LABS, 23.47°N, 120.87°E, 2862 m a.s.l.) as a representative regional mountain site located in subtropical East Asia from April 2006 to March 2011. A fast-screening algorithm was proposed to sift the SI events at the LABS. The ozone was increased approximately 13.5±6.1 ppb on average during the 54 detected SI events, whereas the mean ozone mixing ratio was calculated to be 32.8±15.2 ppb over the 5 years. Distinct seasonal variation of ozone was observed with a maximum in spring and a minimum in summer, which was predominately shaped by the long-range transport of biomass burning air masses from Southeast Asia and oceanic influences from the Pacific, respectively. By contrast, the SI events were observed at the LABS mainly during wintertime. The characteristics of the SI events were also investigated in association with Modern Era Retrospective Analysis - 2 (MERRA-2) assimilated data provided by NASA/GSFC in this study.

  3. Long-term changes of the upper stratosphere as seen by Japanese rocketsondes at Ryori (39°N, 141°E

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Keckhut

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available Wind and temperature profiles measured routinely by rockets at Ryori (Japan since 1970 are analysed to quantify interannual changes that occur in the upper stratosphere. The analysis involved using a least square fitting of the data with a multiparametric adaptative model composed of a linear combination of some functions that represent the main expected climate forcing responses of the stratosphere. These functions are seasonal cycles, solar activity changes, stratospheric optical depth induced by volcanic aerosols, equatorial wind oscillations and a possible linear trend. Step functions are also included in the analyses to take into account instrumental changes. Results reveal a small change for wind data series above 45 km when new corrections were introduced to take into account instrumental changes. However, no significant change of the mean is noted for temperature even after sondes were improved. While wind series reveal no significant trends, a significant cooling of 2.0 to 2.5 K/decade is observed in the mid upper stratosphere using this analysis method. This cooling is more than double the cooling predicted by models by a factor of more than two. In winter, it may be noted that the amplitude of the atmospheric response is enhanced. This is probably caused by the larger ozone depletion and/or by some dynamical feedback effects. In winter, cooling tends to be smaller around 40-45 km (in fact a warming trend is observed in December as already observed in other data sets and simulated by models. Although the winter response to volcanic aerosols is in good agreement with numerical simulations, the solar signature is of the opposite sign to that expected. This is not understood, but it has already been observed with other data sets.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (evolution of one atmosphere; pressure · density · and temperature · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics

  4. Long-term changes of the upper stratosphere as seen by Japanese rocketsondes at Ryori (39°N, 141°E

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Keckhut

    Full Text Available Wind and temperature profiles measured routinely by rockets at Ryori (Japan since 1970 are analysed to quantify interannual changes that occur in the upper stratosphere. The analysis involved using a least square fitting of the data with a multiparametric adaptative model composed of a linear combination of some functions that represent the main expected climate forcing responses of the stratosphere. These functions are seasonal cycles, solar activity changes, stratospheric optical depth induced by volcanic aerosols, equatorial wind oscillations and a possible linear trend. Step functions are also included in the analyses to take into account instrumental changes. Results reveal a small change for wind data series above 45 km when new corrections were introduced to take into account instrumental changes. However, no significant change of the mean is noted for temperature even after sondes were improved. While wind series reveal no significant trends, a significant cooling of 2.0 to 2.5 K/decade is observed in the mid upper stratosphere using this analysis method. This cooling is more than double the cooling predicted by models by a factor of more than two. In winter, it may be noted that the amplitude of the atmospheric response is enhanced. This is probably caused by the larger ozone depletion and/or by some dynamical feedback effects. In winter, cooling tends to be smaller around 40-45 km (in fact a warming trend is observed in December as already observed in other data sets and simulated by models. Although the winter response to volcanic aerosols is in good agreement with numerical simulations, the solar signature is of the opposite sign to that expected. This is not understood, but it has already been observed with other data sets.

    Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (evolution of one atmosphere; pressure · density · and temperature · Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics

  5. Fewer bacteria in warm water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagh, Lene

    1999-01-01

    There has been many suggestions to how the ideal warm water system should be. Particularly whether warm water containers or heat exchangers in larger houses are the best solutions in order to maintain a water quality with low levels of bacteria. In an investigation made by Statens Byggeforskningsinstitutt (Denmark) regarding ''Bacterial growth in warm water installations with heat exchangers'' there were used several heat exchangers made by Gjelsted and Lund of three of which had HWAT heating cables. The bacterial content was low from these exchangers compared to exchangers with circulation. The article presents promising results from a study where the method was investigated over a longer period in two new larger warm water systems. Some energy conservation aspects are discussed

  6. Warm mix asphalt : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The performance of pavements constructed using warm mix asphalt (WMA) technology were : compared to the performance of conventional hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavements placed on the : same project. Measurements of friction resistance, rutting/wear, ride ...

  7. Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1988-09-01

    Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

  8. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  9. Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2016-12-01

    The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.

  10. Global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    The problems of pollution, global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation, and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy, pollution and global warming crisis. (author)

  11. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  12. Is cold or warm blood cardioplegia superior for myocardial protection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Udo; Roberts, Patrick Garfjeld; Ishaq, Muhammad; De Silva, Ravi

    2012-01-01

    A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was whether the use of warm or cold blood cardioplegia has superior myocardial protection. More than 192 papers were found using the reported search, of which 20 represented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, journal, date, country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes and results of these papers are tabulated. A good breadth of high-level evidence addressing this clinical dilemma is available, including a recent meta-analysis and multiple large randomized clinical trials. Yet despite this level of evidence, no clear significant clinical benefit has been demonstrated by warm or cold blood cardioplegia. This suggests that neither method is significantly superior and that both provide similar efficacy of myocardial protection. The meta-analysis, including 41 randomized control trials (5879 patients in total), concluded that although a lower cardiac enzyme release and improved postoperative cardiac index was demonstrated in the warm cardioplegia group, this benefit was not reflected in clinical outcomes, which were similar in both groups. This theme of benefit in biochemical markers, physiological metrics and non-fatal postoperative events in the warm cardioplegia group ran throughout the literature, in particular the ‘Warm Heart investigators’ who conducted a randomized trial of 1732 patients, demonstrated a reduction in postoperative low output syndrome (6.1 versus 9.3%, P = 0.01) in the warm cardioplegia group, but no significant drop in 30-day all-cause mortality (1.4 versus 2.5%, P = 0.12). However, their later follow-up indicates non-fatal postoperative events predict reduced late survival, independent of cardioplegia. A minority of studies suggested a benefit of cold cardioplegia over warm in particular patient subgroups: One group conducted a retrospective study of 520 patients who

  13. The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Thornton

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB, the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE, the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II. The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in

  14. The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

    2009-02-01

    This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison

  15. Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lili; Nowack, Peer J.; Tilmes, Simone; Robock, Alan

    2017-10-01

    A range of solar radiation management (SRM) techniques has been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Here, we examine the potential effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosols and solar insolation reduction on tropospheric ozone and ozone at Earth's surface. Ozone is a key air pollutant, which can produce respiratory diseases and crop damage. Using a version of the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research that includes comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, we model both stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction schemes, with the aim of achieving equal levels of surface cooling relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 scenario. This allows us to compare the impacts of sulfate aerosols and solar dimming on atmospheric ozone concentrations. Despite nearly identical global mean surface temperatures for the two SRM approaches, solar insolation reduction increases global average surface ozone concentrations, while sulfate injection decreases it. A fundamental difference between the two geoengineering schemes is the importance of heterogeneous reactions in the photochemical ozone balance with larger stratospheric sulfate abundance, resulting in increased ozone depletion in mid- and high latitudes. This reduces the net transport of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere and thus is a key driver of the overall decrease in surface ozone. At the same time, the change in stratospheric ozone alters the tropospheric photochemical environment due to enhanced ultraviolet radiation. A shared factor among both SRM scenarios is decreased chemical ozone loss due to reduced tropospheric humidity. Under insolation reduction, this is the dominant factor giving rise to the global surface ozone increase. Regionally, both surface ozone increases and decreases are found for both scenarios; that is, SRM would affect regions of the world differently in terms of air pollution. In conclusion

  16. Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Xia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A range of solar radiation management (SRM techniques has been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Here, we examine the potential effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosols and solar insolation reduction on tropospheric ozone and ozone at Earth's surface. Ozone is a key air pollutant, which can produce respiratory diseases and crop damage. Using a version of the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research that includes comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, we model both stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction schemes, with the aim of achieving equal levels of surface cooling relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 scenario. This allows us to compare the impacts of sulfate aerosols and solar dimming on atmospheric ozone concentrations. Despite nearly identical global mean surface temperatures for the two SRM approaches, solar insolation reduction increases global average surface ozone concentrations, while sulfate injection decreases it. A fundamental difference between the two geoengineering schemes is the importance of heterogeneous reactions in the photochemical ozone balance with larger stratospheric sulfate abundance, resulting in increased ozone depletion in mid- and high latitudes. This reduces the net transport of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere and thus is a key driver of the overall decrease in surface ozone. At the same time, the change in stratospheric ozone alters the tropospheric photochemical environment due to enhanced ultraviolet radiation. A shared factor among both SRM scenarios is decreased chemical ozone loss due to reduced tropospheric humidity. Under insolation reduction, this is the dominant factor giving rise to the global surface ozone increase. Regionally, both surface ozone increases and decreases are found for both scenarios; that is, SRM would affect regions of the world differently in terms of air

  17. Key aspects of stratospheric tracer modeling using assimilated winds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bregman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes key aspects of global chemistry-transport models and their impact on stratospheric tracer transport. We concentrate on global models that use assimilated winds from numerical weather predictions, but the results also apply to tracer transport in general circulation models. We examined grid resolution, numerical diffusion, air parcel dispersion, the wind or mass flux update frequency, and time interpolation. The evaluation is performed with assimilated meteorology from the "operational analyses or operational data" (OD from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. We also show the effect of the mass flux update frequency using the ECMWF 40-year re-analyses (ERA40. We applied the three-dimensional chemistry-transport Tracer Model version 5 (TM5 and a trajectory model and performed several diagnoses focusing on different transport regimes. Covering different time and spatial scales, we examined (1 polar vortex dynamics during the Arctic winter, (2 the large-scale stratospheric meridional circulation, and (3 air parcel dispersion in the tropical lower stratosphere. Tracer distributions inside the Arctic polar vortex show considerably worse agreement with observations when the model grid resolution in the polar region is reduced to avoid numerical instability. The results are sensitive to the diffusivity of the advection. Nevertheless, the use of a computational cheaper but diffusive advection scheme is feasible for tracer transport when the horizontal grid resolution is equal or smaller than 1 degree. The use of time interpolated winds improves the tracer distributions, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere. Considerable improvement is found both in the large-scale tracer distribution and in the polar regions when the update frequency of the assimilated winds is increased from 6 to 3 h. It considerably reduces the vertical dispersion of air parcels in the tropical lower stratosphere. Strong

  18. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  19. Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2009-12-01

    Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the

  20. Rigorous determination of stratospheric water vapor trends from MIPAS observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccherini, Simone; Carli, Bruno; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco

    2011-05-09

    The trend of stratospheric water vapor as a function of latitude is estimated by the MIPAS measurements by means of a new method that uses the measurement space solution. The method uses all the information provided by the observations avoiding the artifacts introduced by the a priori information and by the interpolation to different vertical grids. The analysis provides very precise values of the trends that, however, are limited by a relatively large systematic error induced by the radiometric calibration error of the instrument. The results show in the five years from 2005 to 2009 a dependence on latitude of the stratospheric (from 37 to 53 km) water vapor trend with a positive value of (0.41 ± 0.16)%yr-1 in the northern hemisphere and less than 0.16%yr-1 in the southern hemisphere.

  1. Hygienic estimation of population doses due to stratospheric fallout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marej, A.N.; Knizhnikov, V.A.

    1980-01-01

    The hygienic estimation of external and internal irradiation of the USSR population due to stratospheric global fallouts of fission products after nuclear explosions and weapon tests, is carried out. Numerical values which characterize the dose-effect dependence in the case of radiation of marrow, bone tissue and whole body are presented. Values of mean individual and population doses of irradiation due to global fallouts within 1963-1975, types of injury and the number of mortal cases due to malignant neoplasms are presented. A conclusion is made that the contribution of radiation due to stratospheric fallouts in the mortality due to malignant neoplasms is insignificant. Annual radiation doses, conditioned by global fallouts within the period of 1963-1975 constitute but several percent from the dose of radiation of the natural radiation background. Results of estimation of genetic consequences of irradiation due to atmospheric fallouts are presented

  2. Eight years of stratospheric ozone observations at Marambio, Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damski, J; Taalas, P [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland). Section of Ozone and UV Research

    1996-12-31

    In this work behaviour of the stratospheric ozone using the total ozone and ozone sounding measurements from Marambio (64 deg 14`S, 56 deg 37`W) at Antarctic Peninsula has been studied. The effects of depleted stratospheric ozone to the UV-B-radiation are investigated employing a radiative transfer model, and the Marambio total ozone measurements. The levels of UV-B radiation have been studied from the point of the erythemal UV-B-doses on the horizontal human epidermis. The low values of total ozone at Marambio are also reflected to the received UV-doses which have increased roughly 20-80% (compared to long term average) during austral spring and summer. In respective to the total amount of ozone, the model calculations show that during October the UV-B-doses can be at the same level they should be during normal summer

  3. Wind tunnel tests of stratospheric airship counter rotating propellers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaxi Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerodynamic performance of the high-altitude propeller, especially the counter rotation effects, is experimentally studied. Influences of different configurations on a stratospheric airship, included 2-blade counter-rotating propeller (CRP, dual 2-blade single rotation propellers (SRPs and 4-blade SRP, are also indicated. This research indicates that the effect of counter rotation can greatly improve the efficiency. It shows that the CRP configuration results in a higher efficiency than the dual 2-blade SRPs configuration or 4-blade SRP configuration under the same advance ratio, and the CRP configuration also gains the highest efficiency whether under the situation of providing the same trust or absorbing the same power. It concludes that, for a stratospheric airship, the CRP configuration is better than the multiple SRPs configuration or a multi-blade SRP one.

  4. Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, R. F.; Heath, D. F.

    1985-01-01

    Nimbus-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. Nimbus-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven.

  5. Chemical characterization of local and stratospheric plutonium in Ohio soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muller, R.N.

    1978-01-01

    The chemical nature of plutonium derived from stratospheric fallout and industrial sources was studied in three agricultural soils. The majority of the soil plutonium was associated with a reductant-soluble, hydrous oxide phase that, under most conditions of terrestrial ecosystems, remains essentially immobile. The proportion of plutonium associated with organic matter (0.1N NaOH-extractable) varied among soils, and increased with decreasing particle size in the same soil. In a soil containing 238 Pu from a local fabrication facility and 239 , 240 Pu from stratospheric fallout, isotopic ratios between the NaOH-extractable and residual phases were essentially constant, indicating that, in these soils, plutonium from both sources behaves similarly. The distribution of soil plutonium with particle size appears to be most directly related to the mass of the soil particle

  6. Eight years of stratospheric ozone observations at Marambio, Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damski, J.; Taalas, P. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland). Section of Ozone and UV Research

    1995-12-31

    In this work behaviour of the stratospheric ozone using the total ozone and ozone sounding measurements from Marambio (64 deg 14`S, 56 deg 37`W) at Antarctic Peninsula has been studied. The effects of depleted stratospheric ozone to the UV-B-radiation are investigated employing a radiative transfer model, and the Marambio total ozone measurements. The levels of UV-B radiation have been studied from the point of the erythemal UV-B-doses on the horizontal human epidermis. The low values of total ozone at Marambio are also reflected to the received UV-doses which have increased roughly 20-80% (compared to long term average) during austral spring and summer. In respective to the total amount of ozone, the model calculations show that during October the UV-B-doses can be at the same level they should be during normal summer

  7. The Great Warming Brian Fagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, B. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

  8. Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

    2011-01-01

    This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

  9. Global warming impacts of CFC alternative technologies: Combining fluorocarbon and CO2 effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairchild, P.D.; Fischer, S.K.; Hughes, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are on their way out, due to their role in stratospheric ozone depletion and the related international Montreal Protocol agreement and various national phaseout timetables. As the research, engineering development, and manufacturing investment decisions have ensued to prepare for this transition away from CFCs, the climate change issue has emerged and there has recently been increased attention on the direct global warming potential (GWP) of the fluorocarbon alternatives as greenhouse gases. However, there has been less focus on the indirect global warming effect arising from end-use energy changes and associated CO 2 emissions. A study was undertaken to address these combined global warming effects. A concept of Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) was developed for combining the direct and indirect effects and was used for evaluating CFC-replacement options available in the required CFC transition time frame. Analyses of industry technology surveys indicate that CFC-user industries have made substantial progress toward near-equal energy efficiency with many HCFC/HFC alternatives. The findings also bring into question the relative importance of the direct effect in many applications and stress energy efficiency when searching for suitable CFC alternatives. For chillers, household refrigerators, and unitary air-conditioning or heat pump equipment, changes in efficiency of only 2--5% would have a greater effect on future TEWI than completely eliminating the direct effect

  10. Infrared emission high spectral resolution atlas of the stratospheric limb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, William C.; Kunde, Virgil G.; Herath, Lawrence W.

    1989-01-01

    An atlas of high resolution infrared emission spectra identifies a number of gaseous atmospheric features significant to stratospheric chemistry in the 770-900/cm and 1100-1360/cm regions at six zenith angles from 86.7 to 95.1 deg. A balloon-borne Michelson interferometer was flown to obtain about 0.03/cm resolution spectra. Two 10/cm extracts are presented here.

  11. Dust ablation on the giant planets: Consequences for stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Julianne I.; Poppe, Andrew R.

    2017-11-01

    Ablation of interplanetary dust supplies oxygen to the upper atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. Using recent dynamical model predictions for the dust influx rates to the giant planets (Poppe et al., 2016), we calculate the ablation profiles and investigate the subsequent coupled oxygen-hydrocarbon neutral photochemistry in the stratospheres of these planets. We find that dust grains from the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt, Jupiter-family comets, and Oort-cloud comets supply an effective oxygen influx rate of 1.0-0.7+2.2 ×107 O atoms cm-2 s-1 to Jupiter, 7.4-5.1+16 ×104 cm-2 s-1 to Saturn, 8.9-6.1+19 ×104 cm-2 s-1 to Uranus, and 7.5-5.1+16 ×105 cm-2 s-1 to Neptune. The fate of the ablated oxygen depends in part on the molecular/atomic form of the initially delivered products, and on the altitude at which it was deposited. The dominant stratospheric products are CO, H2O, and CO2, which are relatively stable photochemically. Model-data comparisons suggest that interplanetary dust grains deliver an important component of the external oxygen to Jupiter and Uranus but fall far short of the amount needed to explain the CO abundance currently seen in the middle stratospheres of Saturn and Neptune. Our results are consistent with the theory that all of the giant planets have experienced large cometary impacts within the last few hundred years. Our results also suggest that the low background H2O abundance in Jupiter's stratosphere is indicative of effective conversion of meteoric oxygen to CO during or immediately after the ablation process - photochemistry alone cannot efficiently convert the H2O into CO on the giant planets.

  12. Alert with destruction of stratospheric ozone: 95 Nobel Prize Winners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santamaria, J.; Zurita, E.

    1995-01-01

    After briefly summarizing the discoveries of the 95 Nobel Prize Winners in Chemistry related to the threats to the ozone layer by chemical pollutants, we make a soft presentation of the overall problem of stratospheric ozone, starting with the destructive catalytic cycles of the pollutant-based free radicals, following with the diffusion mathematical models in Atmospheric Chemistry, and ending with the increasing annual drama of the ozone hole in the Antarctica. (Author)

  13. Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  14. A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Newman

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show, discuss, and analyze a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This EESC can be more appropriately applied to various parts of the stratosphere because of this dependence on mean age-of-air. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. In this paper, we first provide a detailed description of the EESC calculation. We then use this EESC formulation to estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties and possible problems in the estimated times of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air and fractional release values, and the assumption that these quantities are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be significantly accelerated.

  15. Long duration balloon flights in the middle stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaterre, P.

    1993-02-01

    Research and development performed by the French Space Agency (CNES) over the past 10 years has given the scientific community the Infrared Montgolfiere, a balloon capable of lifting 50-kg payloads into the stratosphere for periods of several weeks. The Infrared Montgolfiere is a hot air balloon that captures infrared radiation using the earth as a heat source. Thirty flights have been launched so far, some lasting more than sixty days and circling the globe twice.

  16. Location and data collection for long stratospheric balloon flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaterre, P.

    Stratospheric balloons capable of taking a 30 kg scientific payload to an altitude of 22 to 30 km for 1 month or more were developed. In-flight experiments were used to qualify the designs of a pumpkin shaped superpressure balloon and an infrared hot air balloon. Tracking of the flights (location and transmission of the parameters measured on board) was achieved using a telemetry gondola including an ARGOS beacon adapted for operation in the low temperatures encountered.

  17. Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, I. S.

    2011-01-01

    A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

  18. Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scaife, Adam A.; Fereday, David R.; Butchart, Neal; Hardiman, Steven C. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Langematz, Ulrike [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Akiyoshi, Hideharu [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Bekki, Slimane [LATMOS-IPSL, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS/INSU, Paris (France); Braesicke, Peter [University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Chipperfield, Martyn P. [University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Gettelman, Andrew [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Michou, Martine [GAME/CNRM (Meteo France, CNRS), Toulouse (France); Rozanov, Eugene [PMOD/WRC and ETHZ, Davos (Switzerland); Shepherd, Theodore G. [University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2012-05-15

    Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections. (orig.)

  19. A New Formulation of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, P. A.; Daniel, J. S.; Waugh, D. W.; Nash, E. R.

    2007-01-01

    Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show and discuss a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. Using this EESC formulation, we estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties in the estimated time of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air, and the assumption that the mean age-of-air and fractional release values are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be accelerated from 2041 to 2031.

  20. Global assimilation of X Project Loon stratospheric balloon observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, L.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Pawson, S.; Candido, S.; Carver, R. W.

    2017-12-01

    Project Loon has an overall goal of providing worldwide internet coverage using a network of long-duration super-pressure balloons. Beginning in 2013, Loon has launched over 1600 balloons from multiple tropical and middle latitude locations. These GPS tracked balloon trajectories provide lower stratospheric wind information over the oceans and remote land areas where traditional radiosonde soundings are sparse, thus providing unique coverage of lower stratospheric winds. To fully investigate these Loon winds we: 1) compare the Loon winds to winds produced by a global data assimilation system (DAS: NASA GEOS) and 2) assimilate the Loon winds into the same comprehensive DAS. Results show that in middle latitudes the Loon winds and DAS winds agree well and assimilating the Loon winds have only a small impact on short-term forecasting of the Loon winds, however, in the tropics the loon winds and DAS winds often disagree substantially (8 m/s or more in magnitude) and in these cases assimilating the loon winds significantly improves the forecast of the loon winds. By highlighting cases where the Loon and DAS winds differ, these results can lead to improved understanding of stratospheric winds, especially in the tropics.

  1. Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchholz, J.

    2005-04-20

    A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H{sub 2}O and HNO{sub 3} redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been

  2. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

    2005-01-01

    Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

  3. Effects of stratospheric aerosol surface processes on the LLNL two-dimensional zonally averaged model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connell, P.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Burley, J.D.; Johnston, H.S.

    1992-01-01

    We have investigated the effects of incorporating representations of heterogeneous chemical processes associated with stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol into the LLNL two-dimensional, zonally averaged, model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Using distributions of aerosol surface area and volume density derived from SAGE 11 satellite observations, we were primarily interested in changes in partitioning within the Cl- and N- families in the lower stratosphere, compared to a model including only gas phase photochemical reactions

  4. Stratospheric aerosol effects from Soufriere Volcano as measured by the SAGE satellite system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccormick, M. P.; Kent, G. S.; Yue, G. K.; Cunnold, D. M.

    1982-01-01

    During its April 1979 eruption series, Soufriere Volcano produced two major stratospheric plumes that the SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) satellite system tracked to West Africa and the North Atlantic Ocean. The total mass of these plumes, whose movement and dispersion are in agreement with those deduced from meteorological data and dispersion theory, was less than 0.5 percent of the global stratospheric aerosol burden; no significant temperature or climate perturbation is therefore expected.

  5. Lidar observations and transfer of stratospheric aerosol over Tomsk in summer period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novikov, P. V.; Cheremisin, A. A.; Marichev, V. N.; Barashkov, T. O.

    2015-11-01

    The analysis of the stratospheric aerosol origin was carried out by the method of Lagrangian particle trajectories. Stratospheric aerosol was registered by lidar sounding of atmosphere above Tomsk in 2008-2013 in summer time. The analysis of the results had shown that the aerosol content at altitudes of 13-125 km with maximum at 16-18 km can be associated with aerosol transfer from tropical stratospheric reservoir.

  6. Warm measurements of CBA superconducting magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelmann, R.; Herrera, J.; Kahn, S.; Kirk, H.; Willen, E.; Yamin, P.

    1983-01-01

    We present results on magnetic field measurements of CBA dipole magnets in the warm (normal conductor) and cryogenic (superconducting) states. We apply two methods for the warm measurements, a dc and ac method. We find a good correlation between warm and cryogenic measurements which lends itself to a reliable diagnosis of magnet field errors using warm measurements early in the magnet assembly process. We further find good agreement between the two warm measurement methods, both done at low currents

  7. Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Martusa, Riki

    2009-01-01

    This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

  8. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flueckiger, J.; Knutti, R.; White, J.W.C.; Renssen, H.

    2008-01-01

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model

  9. Influence of the stratospheric humidity and methane on the ozone column depletion over the western side of South America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, L.; Morales, L.; Cordero, R.R.

    2009-01-01

    The ozone column depletion over the western side of South America has been previously explained as a consequence of winds in the area of the depletion, which lead to the compression and thinning of the ozone layer. However, humidity and methane (originated in the Amazon forest and the Pacific Ocean) transported by these winds toward the stratosphere may also have a role in the ozone depletion. Oxidation of methane generates additional humidity, which in turn reacts with ozone, destroying it. Humidity and methane levels were measured by NASA and HALOE during an ozone depletion event (January 1998) that occurred along with El Nino. By analyzing these measurements, we found that, at different altitudes, changes in the humidity seem to be associated with changes in the ozone such that an increment of humidity may lead to an ozone depletion. Moreover, we found that during the event, the sum 2CH4+H2O was roughly constant only at altitudes lower than 50 km; the ratio CH4/H2O exhibited an exponential decay with the altitude that may allow assessing the generation mechanism of stratospheric humidity from methane.

  10. Rocket Observations of Kelvin Waves in the Upper Stratosphere over India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devarajan, M.; Reddy, C. A.; Ragrava Reddi, C.

    1985-09-01

    The upper atmospheric winds (20-40 km) at two Indian stations, Sriharikota Range (SHAR 13.7°N, 80.2°E) and Balasore (2 1.5°N, 86.93°E) during the years 1979-80 were analyzed for short scale vertical variations (6-16 km) of the zonal wind. The analysis involves high-pass filtering of the wind profiles to extract the short-scale wavelike perturbations and Fourier analysis of the wave disturbances.The results of the analysis are presented. The dominant vertical wavelengths are in the 6-12 km range in 67% of the observed cases, and the amplitudes are significantly larger during the easterly background wind. The amplitudes are systematically larger by about a factor of 2 at Sriharikota (13.7°N) than at 1Wasore (21.5°N). Corresponding wave perturbations are absent in the meridional wind in as much as 70% of the observations. These characteristics lead to the conclusion that the observed wavelike disturbances are the manifestation of Kelvin waves in the upper stratosphere. In some cases, the periods of the waves are inferred to be in the range of 4-8 days. The short vertical wavelengths, together with the shorter periods, indicate the possible dominance of zonal wavenumber 2 during many disturbance events.The observations of the wave activity in relation to the semiannual oscillation (SAO) and the annual oscillation (AO) show that 1) the more active periods correspond to the easterly phase of the SAO in the middle stratosphere and that 2) the wave activity persists for a longer duration when both the AO and SAO are in easterly phase.

  11. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael A Magris

    Full Text Available Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST data, integrating both observed (1985-2009 and projected (2010-2099 time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  12. The politics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moss, N.

    1991-01-01

    The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

  13. Comment 1 on workshop in adaptation and mitigation strategies - why greenhouse warming stays a hot topic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppock, R.

    1992-01-01

    The rapidity with which greenhouse warming burst onto the national and international political agendas is surprising. So too is the fact that it has remained of central interest despite the lack of understanding of the phenomenon exhibited by the general public. Even with lackluster public response, politicians and governments around the world are advocating costly actions designed to counter greenhouse warming. A certain amount of attention and concern is necessary to establish and sustain the attention of government decision makers. There are several attributes of the greenhouse warming problem that generated enough attention and concern to propel it so quickly onto the international agenda and keep it in the forefront for action. First, it is one of a new set of global problems that is intimately connected to scientific analysis. A great deal of data has been collected and analyzed since the early 1960s. Scientists have been carefully laying the groundwork for decades and have a solid foundation for addressing the problem. They were ready in 1988 to capitalize on the North American drought as a vehicle to bring the longer-term problem of greenhouse warming to more wide-spread attention. In short, there is a large body of knowledge about the problem and possible remediative actions. Second, greenhouse warming is a vivid problem with considerable psychological impact. Following close on the heels of the antarctic ozone hole and more widespread depletion of stratospheric ozone, it also demonstrates human capacity to directly alter the physical planet on which we depend for survival. Greenhouse warming is symbolic of some of our deepest fears

  14. Age and gravitational separation of the stratospheric air over Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sugawara

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The gravitational separation of major atmospheric components, in addition to the age of air, would provide additional useful information about stratospheric circulation. However, observations of the age of air and gravitational separation are still geographically sparse, especially in the tropics. In order to address this issue, air samples were collected over Biak, Indonesia in February 2015 using four large plastic balloons, each loaded with two compact cryogenic samplers. With a vertical resolution of better than 2 km, air samples from seven different altitudes were analyzed for CO2 and SF6 mole fractions, δ15N of N2, δ18O of O2, and δ(Ar∕N2 to examine the vertically dependent age and gravitational separation of air in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL and the equatorial stratosphere. By comparing their measured mole fractions with aircraft observations in the upper tropical troposphere, we have found that CO2 and SF6 ages increase gradually with increasing altitude from the TTL to 22 km, and then rapidly from there up to 29 km. The CO2 and SF6 ages agree well with each other in the TTL and in the lower stratosphere, but show a significant difference above 24 km. The average values of δ15N of N2, δ18O of O2, and δ(Ar∕N2 all show a small but distinct upward decrease due to the gravitational separation effect. Simulations with a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model indicate that the gravitational separation effect decreases as tropical upwelling is enhanced. From the model calculations with enhanced eddy mixing, it is also found that the upward increase in air age is magnified by horizontal mixing. These model simulations also show that the gravitational separation effect remains relatively constant in the lower stratosphere. The results of this study strongly suggest that the gravitational separation, combined with the age of air, can be used to diagnose air transport processes in the stratosphere.

  15. Stratospheric ozone measurements at Arosa (Switzerland): history and scientific relevance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staehelin, Johannes; Viatte, Pierre; Stübi, Rene; Tummon, Fiona; Peter, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Climatic Observatory (LKO) in Arosa (Switzerland), marking the beginning of the world's longest series of total (or column) ozone measurements. They were driven by the recognition that atmospheric ozone is important for human health, as well as by scientific curiosity about what was, at the time, an ill characterised atmospheric trace gas. From around the mid-1950s to the beginning of the 1970s studies of high atmosphere circulation patterns that could improve weather forecasting was justification for studying stratospheric ozone. In the mid-1970s, a paradigm shift occurred when it became clear that the damaging effects of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), such as long-lived chlorofluorocarbons, needed to be documented. This justified continuing the ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone. Levels of ODSs peaked around the mid-1990s as a result of a global environmental policy to protect the ozone layer, implemented through the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Consequently, chemical destruction of stratospheric ozone started to slow around the mid-1990s. To some extent, this raises the question as to whether continued ozone observation is indeed necessary. In the last decade there has been a tendency to reduce the costs associated with making ozone measurements globally including at Arosa. However, the large natural variability in ozone on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual scales complicates the capacity for demonstrating the success of the Montreal Protocol. Chemistry-climate models also predict a super-recovery of the ozone layer at mid-latitudes in the second half of this century, i.e. an increase of ozone concentrations beyond pre-1970 levels, as a consequence of ongoing climate change. These factors, and identifying potentially unexpected stratospheric responses to climate change, support the continued need to document stratospheric ozone changes. This is particularly valuable at the Arosa site, due

  16. Climate warming: what we can actually expect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delbecq, Denis; Lemarchand, Fabienne; Boucher, Olivier; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Le Treut, Herve

    2013-01-01

    As the next IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report is soon to be published, a paleo-climatologist answers few questions about issues related to climate change (recent climate events, slower temperature increase during the past ten years, lessons learned from the previous IPCC report, evolutions of models, remaining opportunities to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees). A second article comments climate modelling improvements (finer description of oceans, atmosphere and ice field, introduction of new mechanisms in IPCC models such as carbon cycle, vegetation evolution, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, models relying on greenhouse gas emission principles and not on socioeconomic scenarios any longer). A third article outlines that Earth has never been so warm since 1850 and proposes some explanations about the fact that warming has slowed down during the last ten years. A fourth article discusses how greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced, notices that their accounting underestimates the short-term and medium-term impact of methane emission reduction, and stresses the importance of an increased attention to methane emissions

  17. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

    2018-04-01

    Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

  18. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  19. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  20. Warm-Up Strategies for Sport and Exercise: Mechanisms and Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben

    2015-11-01

    It is widely accepted that warming-up prior to exercise is vital for the attainment of optimum performance. Both passive and active warm-up can evoke temperature, metabolic, neural and psychology-related effects, including increased anaerobic metabolism, elevated oxygen uptake kinetics and post-activation potentiation. Passive warm-up can increase body temperature without depleting energy substrate stores, as occurs during the physical activity associated with active warm-up. While the use of passive warm-up alone is not commonplace, the idea of utilizing passive warming techniques to maintain elevated core and muscle temperature throughout the transition phase (the period between completion of the warm-up and the start of the event) is gaining in popularity. Active warm-up induces greater metabolic changes, leading to increased preparedness for a subsequent exercise task. Until recently, only modest scientific evidence was available supporting the effectiveness of pre-competition warm-ups, with early studies often containing relatively few participants and focusing mostly on physiological rather than performance-related changes. External issues faced by athletes pre-competition, including access to equipment and the length of the transition/marshalling phase, have also frequently been overlooked. Consequently, warm-up strategies have continued to develop largely on a trial-and-error basis, utilizing coach and athlete experiences rather than scientific evidence. However, over the past decade or so, new research has emerged, providing greater insight into how and why warm-up influences subsequent performance. This review identifies potential physiological mechanisms underpinning warm-ups and how they can affect subsequent exercise performance, and provides recommendations for warm-up strategy design for specific individual and team sports.

  1. Warm-Up Exercises May Not Be So Important for Enhancing Submaximal Running Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takizawa, Kazuki; Yamaguchi, Taichi; Shibata, Keisuke

    2018-05-01

    Takizawa, K, Yamaguchi, T, and Shibata, K. Warm-up exercises may not be so important for enhancing submaximal running performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(5): 1383-1390, 2018-The purpose of this study was to determine an appropriate warm-up intensity for enhancing performance in submaximal running at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max (it assumes 3,000-5,000 m in track events). Seven trained male university athletes took part in this study (age: 21.3 ± 2.1 years, height: 169.3 ± 4.7 cm, body mass: 58.4 ± 5.6 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 73.33 ± 5.46 ml·kg·min). Each subject ran on a treadmill at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max until exhaustion after 1 of 4 warm-up treatments. The 4 warm-up treatments were no warm-up, 15 minutes running at 60% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, at 70% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, and at 80% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max. The running performance was evaluated by time to exhaustion (TTE). V[Combining Dot Above]O2, and vastus lateralis muscle temperature were also measured. There were no significant differences in TTE among the warm-up exercises (p > 0.05). V[Combining Dot Above]O2 in no warm-up showed slower reaction than the other warm-up exercises. Regarding, the vastus lateralis muscle temperature immediately after warm-up, no warm-up was significantly (p warm-up exercises. Our results suggested that submaximal running performance was not affected by the presence or absence of a warm-up or by warm-up intensity, although physiological changes occurred.

  2. Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Temperature and Circulation in the UIUC Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere GCM to the Treatment of Subgrid-Scale Gravity-Wave Breaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fanglin; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Andranova, Natasha; Zubov, Vladimir A.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Callis, Lin B.

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation to the treatment of mean- flow forcing due to breaking gravity waves was investigated using the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 40-layer Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere General Circulation Model (MST-GCM). Three GCM experiments were performed. The gravity-wave forcing was represented first by Rayleigh friction, and then by the Alexander and Dunkerton (AD) parameterization with weak and strong breaking effects of gravity waves. In all experiments, the Palmer et al. parameterization was included to treat the breaking of topographic gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Overall, the experiment with the strong breaking effect simulates best the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation. With Rayleigh friction and the weak breaking effect, a large warm bias of up to 60 C was found in the summer upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This warm bias was linked to the inability of the GCM to simulate the reversal of the zonal winds from easterly to westerly crossing the mesopause in the summer hemisphere. With the strong breaking effect, the GCM was able to simulate this reversal, and essentially eliminated the warm bias. This improvement was the result of a much stronger meridional transport circulation that possesses a strong vertical ascending branch in the summer upper mesosphere, and hence large adiabatic cooling. Budget analysis indicates that 'in the middle atmosphere the forces that act to maintain a steady zonal-mean zonal wind are primarily those associated with the meridional transport circulation and breaking gravity waves. Contributions from the interaction of the model-resolved eddies with the mean flow are small. To obtain a transport circulation in the mesosphere of the UIUC MST-GCM that is strong enough to produce the observed cold summer mesopause, gravity-wave forcing larger than 100 m/s/day in magnitude is required near the summer mesopause. In

  3. Direct stratospheric injection of biomass burning emissions: a case study of the 2009 Australian bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Robert; From, Mike; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew; Flannigan, Mike; Bernath, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Direct stratospheric injection (DSI) of forest fire smoke represents a direct biogeochemical link between the land surface and stratosphere. DSI events occur regularly in the northern and southern extratropics, and have been observed across a wide range of measurements, but their fate and effects are not well understood. DSIs result from explosive, short-lived fires, and their plumes stand out from background concentrations immediately. This makes it easier to associate detected DSIs to individual fires and their estimated emissions. Because the emissions pulses are brief, chemical decay can be more clearly assessed, and because the emissions pulses are so large, a wide range of rare chemical species can be detected. Observational evidence suggests that they can persist in the stratosphere for several months, enhance ozone production, and be self-lofted to the middle stratosphere through shortwave absorption and diabatic heating. None of these phenomena have been evaluated, however, with a physical model. To that end, we are simulating the smoke plumes from the February 2009 Australia 'Black Saturday' bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model, nudged toward horizontal winds from reanalysis. To-date, this is the best-observed DSI in the southern hemisphere. Chemical and aerosol signatures of the plume were observed in a wide array of limb and nadir satellite retrievals. Detailed estimates of fuel consumption and injection height have been made because of the severity of the fires. Uncommon among DSIs events was a large segment of the plume that entrained into the upper equatorial easterlies. Preliminary modeling results show that the relative strengths of the equatorial and extratropical plume segments are sensitive to the plume's initial injection height. This highlights the difficulty in reconciling uncertainty in the reanalysis over the Southern Hemisphere with fairly-well constrained estimates of fire location and injection height at the

  4. The warm chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, J Z

    1985-01-01

    1 series of events carried smallpox vaccination on an eastward odyssey; a 2nd path led westward from Spain to Spanish America, to the Philippines, and to China. Francisco Xavier Balmis (1753-1819), a Spanish physician, sailed around the world in 3 years, establishing vaccination boards in South America, the Philippines, and China. He led the "Real Expedicion Martima de la Vacuna," sponsored by the Bourbon King Charles IV; its success derived from arm-to-arm passage of the virus using orphan boys on the long voyages across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Venezuela was the 1st country to which Balmis introduced vaccine. He divided the expedition with his deputy, Slavany, who was to lead 1 group through the Spanish colonies in the Vice-Royalty of Peru; Balmis would lead the other group across the Vice-Royalty of New Spain to the far-distant colony in the Philippines. The establishment of central boards to regulate vaccination became one of Balmis's principal preoccupations. The board he created in Venezuela served as the model for those that he and Salvany were to establish later. Balmis sailed to Havana from La Guaira on May 8, 1804; Salvany led his team to Bogota. Balmis's singular success in Caracas, and Salvany's in Bogota, where Salvany also created a Central Vaccination Board, were attributable in large measure to the total support they received from church and civil authorites. The Portuguese throne had a comparable interest in its prize colony, Brazil. In 1804, Felisberto Calderia Brant Pontes sent a group of slave children from Bahia to Lisbon so that arm-to-arm transfer could be made on the return voyage. His effort was successful, and 1335 persons had been vaccinated in Bahia by June 1, 1804. In a decree of September 3, 1803 Charles IV directed that the Balmis expedition should continue to the Philippines. The advancement of health in the Philippines was a major commitment of the Spaniards. The Philippine vaccination expedition, headed by Balmis, sailed

  5. Cosmogenic 35S as a Novel Detector of Stratospheric Air at the Earth's Surface: Key Findings from the Western United States and New Insights into the Seasonal Variations of Ozone and Sulfate in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, M.; Thiemens, M. H.; Shaheen, R.; Biglari, S.; Crocker, D.; Zhang, Z.; Tao, J.; Su, L.; Fung, J. C. H.; Su, B.; Liu, L.

    2016-12-01

    The extent to which stratospheric intrusions on synoptic scales influence the tropospheric ozone (O3) levels remains poorly understood because quantitative detection of stratosphere air at the Earth's surface has been challenging. Cosmogenic 35S is invaluable in such quantification, but this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. As a global hot spot for stratospheric intrusions, the western United States (US) is a natural laboratory for testing the validity of this approach. Here, we present measurements of 35S in sulfate aerosols during a well-defined deep stratospheric intrusion event in the western US, which led to a regional O3 pollution event across southern California. The surprisingly high 35S activity in this episode is greater than any other natural radiogenic sulfate aerosols reported in the literature, providing the first and direct field-based evidence that 35S is a sensitive tracer for air mass of stratospheric origin and transported downward. Using this novel tracer, we quantify the seasonal variation for the strength of downward transport of stratospheric air to the planetary boundary layer in East Asia (EA) and what it may mean for surface O3 and sulfate levels. Our 35S measurements in sulfate aerosols collected from a background site (Mount Wuyi; 27.72°N, 117.68°E) during 2014-2015 show peaks in spring and autumn and the temporal variations of 35S were in tandem with surface O3 levels. These results imply that stratospheric O3 in aged stratospheric air masses may contribute to surface O3 levels in the study region in these two seasons. Along with radiogenic 35S analysis, measuring all seven stable isotopes (16O, 17O, 18O, 32S, 33S, 34S and 36S) in the same sulfate samples provides significantly deeper understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in this region. Triple oxygen isotopes are being measured and preliminary results show that the relative importance of different formation pathways of secondary sulfate in EA is likely altitude

  6. The influences of wildfires and stratospheric-tropospheric exchange on ozone during seacions mission over St. Louis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Joseph L.

    The influence of wildfire biomass burning and stratospheric air mass transport on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in St. Louis during the SEAC4RS and SEACIONS-2013 measurement campaigns has been investigated. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF analysis reveals that 55% of ozonesonde profiles during SEACIONS were effected by biomass burning. Comparing ozonesonde profiles with numerical simulations show that as biomass burning plumes age there is O3 production aloft. A new plume injection height technique was developed based on the Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) detection algorithm for pyro-convection. The NRL method identified 29 pyro-cumulonimbus events that occurred during the summer of 2013, of which 13 (44%) impacted the SEACIONS study area, and 4 (14%) impacted the St. Louis area. In this study, we investigate wildfire plume injection heights using model simulations and the FLAMBE emissions inventory using 2 different algorithms. In the first case, wildfire emissions are injected at the surface and allowed to mix within the boundary layer simulated by the meteorological model. In the second case, the injection height of wildfire emissions is determined by a guided deep-convective pyroCb run using the NRL detection algorithm. Results show that simulations using surface emissions were able to represent the transport of carbon monoxide plumes from wildfires when the plumes remained below 5 km or occurred during large convective systems, but that the surface effects were over predicted. The pyroCb cases simulated the long-range transport of elevated plumes above 5 km 68% of the time. In addition analysis of potential vorticity suggests that stratospheric intrusions or tropopause folds affected 13 days (48%) when there were sonde launches and 27 days (44%) during the entire study period. The largest impact occurred on September 12, 2013 when ozone-rich air impacted the nocturnal boundary layer. By analyzing ozonesonde profiles with

  7. Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.

    2017-11-01

    There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European climate extremes at these warming levels. For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 °C global warming compared to 2 °C global warming. Under 2 °C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years. We find that there are very clear benefits to limiting global warming for the European continent, including fewer and less intense heat and rainfall extremes when compared with higher levels of global warming.

  8. Monstrous Ice Cloud System in Titan's Present South Polar Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, Robert; McLain, Jason; Achterberg, Richard; Flasar, F. Michael; Milam, Stefanie

    2015-11-01

    During southern autumn when sunlight was still available, Cassini's Imaging Science Subsystem discovered a cloud around 300 km near Titan's south pole (West, R. A. et al., AAS/DPS Abstracts, 45, #305.03, 2013); the cloud was later determined by Cassini's Visible and InfraRed Mapping Spectrometer to contain HCN ice (de Kok et al., Nature, 514, pp 65-67, 2014). This cloud has proven to be only the tip of an extensive ice cloud system contained in Titan's south polar stratosphere, as seen through the night-vision goggles of Cassini's Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS). As the sun sets and the gloom of southern winter approaches, evidence is beginning to accumulate from CIRS far-IR spectra that a massive system of nitrile ice clouds is developing in Titan's south polar stratosphere. Even during the depths of northern winter, nothing like the strength of this southern system was evident in corresponding north polar regions.From the long slant paths that are available from limb-viewing CIRS far-IR spectra, we have the first definitive detection of the ν6 band of cyanoacetylene (HC3N) ice in Titan’s south polar stratosphere. In addition, we also see a strong blend of nitrile ice lattice vibration features around 160 cm-1. From these data we are able to derive ice abundances. The most prominent (and still chemically unidentified) ice emission feature, the Haystack, (at 220 cm-1) is also observed. We establish the vertical distributions of the ice cloud systems associated with both the 160 cm-1 feature and the Haystack. The ultimate aim is to refine the physical and possibly the chemical relationships between the two. Transmittance thin film spectra of nitrile ice mixtures obtained in our Spectroscopy for Planetary ICes Environments (SPICE) laboratory are used to support these analyses.

  9. The effect of stratospheric sulfur from Mount Pinatubo on tropospheric oxidizing capacity and methane

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bândə, Narcisa; Krol, Maarten; Noije, Van Twan; Weele, Van Michiel; Williams, Jason E.; Sager, Philippe Le; Niemeier, Ulrike; Thomason, Larry; Röckmann, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injected a large amount of SO2 into the stratosphere, which formed sulfate aerosols. Increased scattering and absorption of UV radiation by the enhanced stratospheric SO2 and aerosols decreased the amount of UV radiation reaching the

  10. The effect of stratospheric sulfur from Mount Pinatubo on tropospheric oxidizing capacity and methane

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banda, Narcissa; Krol, Maarten; van Noije, Twan; van Weele, Michiel; Williams, Jason E.; Sager, Philippe Le; Niemeier, Ulrike; Thomason, Larry; Röckmann, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injected a large amount of SO2 into the stratosphere, which formed sulfate aerosols. Increased scattering and absorption of UV radiation by the enhanced stratospheric SO2 and aerosols decreased the amount of UV radiation reaching the troposphere, causing

  11. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  12. Event Investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korosec, D.

    2000-01-01

    The events in the nuclear industry are investigated from the license point of view and from the regulatory side too. It is well known the importance of the event investigation. One of the main goals of such investigation is to prevent the circumstances leading to the event and the consequences of the event. The protection of the nuclear workers against nuclear hazard, and the protection of general public against dangerous effects of an event could be achieved by systematic approach to the event investigation. Both, the nuclear safety regulatory body and the licensee shall ensure that operational significant events are investigated in a systematic and technically sound manner to gather information pertaining to the probable causes of the event. One of the results should be appropriate feedback regarding the lessons of the experience to the regulatory body, nuclear industry and general public. In the present paper a general description of systematic approach to the event investigation is presented. The systematic approach to the event investigation works best where cooperation is present among the different divisions of the nuclear facility or regulatory body. By involving management and supervisors the safety office can usually improve their efforts in the whole process. The end result shall be a program which serves to prevent events and reduce the time and efforts solving the root cause which initiated each event. Selection of the proper method for the investigation and an adequate review of the findings and conclusions lead to the higher level of the overall nuclear safety. (author)

  13. Radiation chemistry in the Jovian stratosphere - Laboratory simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonald, Gene D.; Thompson, W. R.; Sagan, Carl

    1992-01-01

    The results of the present low-pressure/continuous-flow laboratory simulations of H2/He/CH4/NH3 atmospheres' plasma-induced chemistry indicate radiation yields of both hydrocarbon and N2-containing organic compounds which increase with decreasing pressure. On the basis of these findings, upper limits of 1 million-1 billion molecules/sq cm/sec are established for production rates of major auroral-chemistry species in the Jovian stratosphere. It is noted that auroral processes may account for 10-100 percent of the total abundances of most of the observed polar-region organic species.

  14. Stratospheric nitrogen dioxide in the vicinity of Soufriere, St. Vincent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romick, G. J.; Murcray, D. G.; Williams, W. J.

    1982-01-01

    In April 1979, measurements of nitrogen dioxide in the upper atmosphere were made near Soufriere Volcano by twilight optical-absorption techniques. The derived value of 5 x 10 to the 15th molecules per square centimeter column implies an enhancement of 25 percent over earlier abundances measured in the same latitudinal regions. This enhancement may represent the normal stratospheric variability of nitrogen dioxide in the equatorial region, but in any case may be considered an upper limit to the volcano's effect on the total nitrogen dioxide abundance.

  15. Testing in a stratospheric balloon of a semiconductor detector altimeter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilly, L.; Jourdan, P.

    1968-01-01

    An altimeter containing a semiconductor detector has been operated on flight. We have used a stratospheric balloon launched from AIRE-SUR-ADOUR with the C.N.E.S. collaboration. During this assay two apparatus have been used. The first allowed to follow the balloon during its ascension and descent, the second to follow its evolution at its maximum altitude. Informations transmitted by radio and recorded on Magnetophon, have been studied after the flight. Results are identical with these given by the barometer used by the C.N.E.S. in this essay. (authors) [fr

  16. Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mathole, K

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Circulation Model (called the ECHAM 4.5-MOM3-SA OAGCM)31 integrations for the first lead time (i.e. forecasts are made in early November for December- January-February).This model currently is used for operational forecast production at the South African... through modelling and predictability studies should include the knowledge of stratospheric as well as chemical processes (e.g. CO2 and ozone) which contribute to the so-called ‘complete climate system’. This notion was endorsed by the World Climate...

  17. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  18. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  19. Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten

    2016-12-01

    The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

  20. Underlying mechanisms of transient luminous events: a review

    OpenAIRE

    V. V. Surkov; M. Hayakawa

    2012-01-01

    Transient luminous events (TLEs) occasionally observed above a strong thunderstorm system have been the subject of a great deal of research during recent years. The main goal of this review is to introduce readers to recent theories of electrodynamics processes associated with TLEs. We examine