WorldWideScience

Sample records for stratospheric modeling evaluation

  1. Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling. Evaluation No. 12

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMore, W. B.; Sander, S. P.; Golden, D. M.; Hampson, R. F.; Kurylo, M. J.; Howard, C. J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Kolb, C. E.; Molina, M. J.

    1997-01-01

    This is the twelfth in a series of evaluated sets of rate constants and photochemical cross sections compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation. The primary application of the data is in the modeling of stratospheric processes, with special emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena.

  2. Evaluation of stratospheric temperature simulation results by the global GRAPES model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ningwei; Wang, Yangfeng; Ma, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yunhai

    2017-12-01

    Global final analysis (FNL) products and the general circulation spectral model (ECHAM) were used to evaluate the simulation of stratospheric temperature by the global assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES). Through a series of comparisons, it was shown that the temperature variations at 50 hPa simulated by GRAPES were significantly elevated in the southern hemisphere, whereas simulations by ECHAM and FNL varied little over time. The regional warming predicted by GRAPES seemed to be too distinct and uncontrolled to be reasonable. The temperature difference between GRAPES and FNL (GRAPES minus FNL) was small at the start time on the global scale. Over time, the positive values became larger in more locations, especially in parts of the southern hemisphere, where the warming predicted by GRAPES was dominant, with a maximal value larger than 24 K. To determine the reasons for the stratospheric warming, we considered the model initial conditions and ozone data to be possible factors; however, a comparison and sensitivity test indicated that the errors produced by GRAPES were not significantly related to either factor. Further research focusing on the impact of factors such as vapor, heating rate, and the temperature tendency on GRAPES simulations will be conducted.

  3. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

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    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  4. Stratospheric General Circulation with Chemistry Model (SGCCM)

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    Rood, Richard B.; Douglass, Anne R.; Geller, Marvin A.; Kaye, Jack A.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Stolarski, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

  5. Key aspects of stratospheric tracer modeling using assimilated winds

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    B. Bregman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes key aspects of global chemistry-transport models and their impact on stratospheric tracer transport. We concentrate on global models that use assimilated winds from numerical weather predictions, but the results also apply to tracer transport in general circulation models. We examined grid resolution, numerical diffusion, air parcel dispersion, the wind or mass flux update frequency, and time interpolation. The evaluation is performed with assimilated meteorology from the "operational analyses or operational data" (OD from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. We also show the effect of the mass flux update frequency using the ECMWF 40-year re-analyses (ERA40. We applied the three-dimensional chemistry-transport Tracer Model version 5 (TM5 and a trajectory model and performed several diagnoses focusing on different transport regimes. Covering different time and spatial scales, we examined (1 polar vortex dynamics during the Arctic winter, (2 the large-scale stratospheric meridional circulation, and (3 air parcel dispersion in the tropical lower stratosphere. Tracer distributions inside the Arctic polar vortex show considerably worse agreement with observations when the model grid resolution in the polar region is reduced to avoid numerical instability. The results are sensitive to the diffusivity of the advection. Nevertheless, the use of a computational cheaper but diffusive advection scheme is feasible for tracer transport when the horizontal grid resolution is equal or smaller than 1 degree. The use of time interpolated winds improves the tracer distributions, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere. Considerable improvement is found both in the large-scale tracer distribution and in the polar regions when the update frequency of the assimilated winds is increased from 6 to 3 h. It considerably reduces the vertical dispersion of air parcels in the tropical lower stratosphere. Strong

  6. Evaluation of the tropospheric flows to a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with a PSU/NCAR nudging MM5V3 model

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    Wang, K.

    2008-04-01

    Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.

  7. MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

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    Garfinkel, C I; Schwartz, C

    2017-10-16

    The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

  8. SWIFT: Semi-empirical and numerically efficient stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

    2015-01-01

    The SWIFT model is a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone. It is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs), Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs). For computing time reasons these models often do not employ full stratospheric chem- istry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This can lead to insufficient representation between stratosphere and troposphere. The SWIFT stratospheric ozone chem...

  9. Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. Chapter 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugata, S.

    1997-01-01

    A quantitative evaluation of climate change such as global warming is impossible without a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials. The Center for Climate Research - National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR-NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (hereafter, GCM for a general circulation model) has been developed to obtain such a high-quality model. The emphasis of the development has been laid on the troposphere and the lower stratosphere below about 30 km altitude. This is natural because human beings live on the Earth's surface and the condition of the lower atmosphere directly affects human life. However, the stratosphere and the upper atmosphere beyond it have recently been the focus even in investigations of climate change, because they are relevant to many issues which relate closely to tropospheric climate change, such as the ozone hole, material exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and physical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. This study extended the region of the CCSR-NIES GCM to the lower mesosphere (about 70 km from the surface). This is our first attempt to investigate this GCM's climatology in the upper atmosphere, although some studies for QBO in the middle and lower stratosphere had been done with the GCM

  10. How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

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    Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

  11. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-03-16

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

  12. The Extrapolar SWIFT model (version 1.0): fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

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    Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

    2018-03-01

    The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends.The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, in which algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equation system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24 h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, overhead ozone column and the mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone-depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these nine variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month, which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading).For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model, replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the

  13. Assimilation of stratospheric ozone in the chemical transport model STRATAQ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grassi

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We describe a sequential assimilation approach useful for assimilating tracer measurements into a three-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM of the stratosphere. The numerical code, developed largely according to Kha00, uses parameterizations and simplifications allowing assimilation of sparse observations and the simultaneous evaluation of analysis errors, with reasonable computational requirements. Assimilation parameters are set by using χ2 and OmF (Observation minus Forecast statistics. The CTM used here is a high resolution three-dimensional model. It includes a detailed chemical package and is driven by UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office analyses. We illustrate the method using assimilation of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Microwave Limb Sounder (UARS/MLS ozone observations for three weeks during the 1996 antarctic spring. The comparison of results from the simulations with TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer measurements shows improved total ozone fields due to assimilation of MLS observations. Moreover, the assimilation gives indications on a possible model weakness in reproducing polar ozone values during springtime.

  14. Assimilation of stratospheric ozone in the chemical transport model STRATAQ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grassi

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We describe a sequential assimilation approach useful for assimilating tracer measurements into a three-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM of the stratosphere. The numerical code, developed largely according to Kha00, uses parameterizations and simplifications allowing assimilation of sparse observations and the simultaneous evaluation of analysis errors, with reasonable computational requirements. Assimilation parameters are set by using χ2 and OmF (Observation minus Forecast statistics. The CTM used here is a high resolution three-dimensional model. It includes a detailed chemical package and is driven by UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office analyses. We illustrate the method using assimilation of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Microwave Limb Sounder (UARS/MLS ozone observations for three weeks during the 1996 antarctic spring. The comparison of results from the simulations with TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer measurements shows improved total ozone fields due to assimilation of MLS observations. Moreover, the assimilation gives indications on a possible model weakness in reproducing polar ozone values during springtime.

  15. Investigation of the temporal development of the stratospheric ozone layer with an interactively coupled chemistry-climate model; Untersuchung der zeitlichen Entwicklung der stratosphaerischen Ozonschicht mit einem interaktiv gekoppelten Klima-Chemie-Modell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnadt, C

    2001-07-01

    The impact of climate change and stratospheric chlorine loading on the stratospheric ozone layer is estimated by evaluating three multi-annual simulations of the interactively coupled global chemistry-climate model ECUAM4.L39 (DLR)/CHEM. Two experiments of the near past were carried out representing the early 1980s and 1990s, respectively. An additional scenario was conducted which is characterised by increased greenhouse gas concentrations and a slightly reduced stratospheric chlorine loading with respect to its value measured in the year 1990, according to current projections. The model is able to describe dynamic and chemical processes of the 1980s and 1990s realistically, and it is capable in reproducing the observed stratospheric temperature, water vapour, and ozone temperature trends of this time period. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the model produces an enhancing stratospheric cooling for the years 1980 to 2015. Despite the reduced stratospheric chlorine loading in 2015, the decreased stratospheric temperatures will cause a continued reduction of stratospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere. In the northern hemisphere, tropospheric warming results in a changed excitation of planetary waves. Their vertical propagation and breaking in the stratosphere causes the polar vortex to become more unstable in 2015. This overcompensates the radiative stratospheric cooling so that stratospheric ozone recovers. (orig.)

  16. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

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    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  17. Effects of stratospheric aerosol surface processes on the LLNL two-dimensional zonally averaged model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connell, P.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Burley, J.D.; Johnston, H.S.

    1992-01-01

    We have investigated the effects of incorporating representations of heterogeneous chemical processes associated with stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol into the LLNL two-dimensional, zonally averaged, model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Using distributions of aerosol surface area and volume density derived from SAGE 11 satellite observations, we were primarily interested in changes in partitioning within the Cl- and N- families in the lower stratosphere, compared to a model including only gas phase photochemical reactions

  18. Evaluation of linear ozone photochemistry parametrizations in a stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system

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    A. J. Geer

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the performance of various linear ozone photochemistry parametrizations using the stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system of the Met Office. A set of experiments were run for the period 23 September 2003 to 5 November 2003 using the Cariolle (v1.0 and v2.1, LINOZ and Chem2D-OPP (v0.1 and v2.1 parametrizations. All operational meteorological observations were assimilated, together with ozone retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS. Experiments were validated against independent data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE and ozonesondes. Additionally, a simple offline method for comparing the parametrizations is introduced. It is shown that in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, outside the polar night, ozone analyses are controlled by the photochemistry parametrizations and not by the assimilated observations. The most important factor in getting good results at these levels is to pay attention to the ozone and temperature climatologies in the parametrizations. There should be no discrepancies between the climatologies and the assimilated observations or the model, but there is also a competing demand that the climatologies be objectively accurate in themselves. Conversely, in the lower stratosphere outside regions of heterogeneous ozone depletion, the ozone analyses are dominated by observational increments and the photochemistry parametrizations have little influence. We investigate a number of known problems in LINOZ and Cariolle v1.0 in more detail than previously, and we find discrepancies in Cariolle v2.1 and Chem2D-OPP v2.1, which are demonstrated to have been removed in the latest available versions (v2.8 and v2.6 respectively. In general, however, all the parametrizations work well through much of the stratosphere, helped by the presence of good quality assimilated MIPAS observations.

  19. Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, I. S.

    2011-01-01

    A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

  20. The extrapolar SWIFT-model: Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this PhD-thesis was the development of a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for an interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer. The SWIFT-model is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs). For computing-time reasons GCMs often do not employ full stratospheric chemistry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This method does not consider the interaction between atmospheric dynamics and the ozone layer and can neither resolve the inter-annu...

  1. A polar stratospheric cloud parameterization for the global modeling initiative three-dimensional model and its response to stratospheric aircraft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, D. B.; Douglass, A. R.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Rotman, D. A.

    2000-01-01

    We describe a new parameterization of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) which was written for and incorporated into the three-dimensional (3-D) chemistry and transport model (CTM) developed for NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The parameterization was designed to respond to changes in NO y and H 2 O produced by high-speed civilian transport (HSCT) emissions. The parameterization predicts surface area densities (SADs) of both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs for use in heterogeneous chemistry calculations. Type 1 PSCs are assumed to have a supercooled ternary sulfate (STS) composition, and Type 2 PSCs are treated as water ice with a coexisting nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) phase. Sedimentation is treated by assuming that the PSC particles obey lognormal size distributions, resulting in a realistic mass flux of condensed phase H 2 O and HNO 3 . We examine a simulation of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude lower stratosphere winter and spring seasons driven by temperature and wind fields from a modified version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 2 (MACCM2). Predicted PSC SADs and median radii for both Type 1 and Type 2 PSCs are consistent with observations. Gas phase HNO 3 and H 2 O concentrations in the high-latitude lower stratosphere qualitatively agree with Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) HNO 3 and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) H 2 O observations. The residual denitrification and dehydration of the model polar vortex after polar winter compares well with atmospheric trace molecule spectroscopy (ATMOS) observations taken during November 1994. When the NO x and H 2 O emissions of a standard 500-aircraft HSCT fleet with a NO x emission index of 5 are added, NO x and H 2 O concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex before winter increase by up to 3%. This results in earlier onset of PSC formation, denitrification, and

  2. Modeling the plasma chemistry of stratospheric Blue Jet streamers

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    Winkler, Holger; Notholt, Justus

    2014-05-01

    Stratospheric Blue Jets (SBJs) are upward propagating discharges in the altitude range 15-40 km above thunderstorms. The currently most accepted theory associates SBJs to the development of the streamer zone of a leader. The streamers emitted from the leader can travel for a few tens of kilometers predominantly in the vertical direction (Raizer et al., 2007). The strong electric fields at the streamer tips cause ionisation, dissociation, and excitation, and give rise to chemical perturbations. While in recent years the effects of electric discharges occurring in the mesosphere (sprites) have been investigated in a number of model studies, there are only a few studies on the impact of SBJs. However, chemical perturbations due to SBJs are of interest as they might influence the stratospheric ozone layer. We present results of detailed plasma chemistry simulations of SBJ streamers for both day-time and night-time conditions. Any effects of the subsequent leader are not considered. The model accounts for more than 500 reactions and calculates the evolution of the 88 species under the influence of the breakdown electric fields at the streamer tip. As the SBJ dynamics is outside the scope of this study, the streamer parameters are prescribed. For this purpose, electric field parameters based on Raizer et al. (2007) are used. The model is applied to the typical SBJ altitude range 15-40 km. The simulations indicate that SBJ streamers cause significant chemical perturbations. In particular, the liberation of atomic oxygen during the discharge leads to a formation of ozone. At the same time, reactive nitrogen and hydrogen radicals are produced which will cause catalytic ozone destruction. Reference: Raizer et al. (2007), J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 69 (8), 925-938.

  3. One-dimensional numerical modeling of Blue Jet and its impact on stratospheric chemistry

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    Duruisseau, F.; Thiéblemont, R.; Huret, N.

    2011-12-01

    In the stratosphere the ozone layer is very sensitive to the NOx abundance. The ionisation of N2 and O2 molecules by TLE's (Transient Luminous Events) is a source of NOx which is currently not well quantified and could act as a loss of ozone. In this study a one dimensional explicit parameterization of a Blue-Jet propagation based on that proposed by Raizer et al. (2006 and 2007) has been developed. This parameterization considers Blue-Jet as a streamer initiated by a bidirectional leader discharge, emerging from the anvil and sustained by moderate cloud charge. The streamer growth varies with the electrical field induced by initial cloud charge and the initial altitude. This electrical parameterization and the chemical mechanisms associated with the discharge have been implemented into a detailed chemical model of stratospheric ozone including evolution of nitrogen, chlorine and bromine species. We will present several tests performed to validate the electrical code and evaluate the propagation velocity and the maximum altitude attains by the blue jet as a function of electrical parameters. The results obtained giving the spatiotemporal evolution of the electron density are then used to initiate the specific chemistry associated with the Blue Jet. Preliminary results on the impact of such discharge on the ozone content and the whole stratospheric system will be presented.

  4. Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke David; Newman, Paul A.; Song, InSun

    2013-01-01

    A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

  5. Stratospheric aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, J.; Ivanov, V.A.

    1993-01-01

    Stratospheric aerosol measurements can provide both spatial and temporal data of sufficient resolution to be of use in climate models. Relatively recent results from a wide range of instrument techniques for measuring stratospheric aerosol parameters are described. Such techniques include impactor sampling, lidar system sensing, filter sampling, photoelectric particle counting, satellite extinction-sensing using the sun as a source, and optical depth probing, at sites mainly removed from tropospheric aerosol sources. Some of these techniques have also had correlative and intercomparison studies. The main methods for determining the vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosols are outlined: lidar extinction measurements from satellites; impactor measurements from balloons and aircraft; and photoelectric particle counter measurements from balloons, aircraft, and rockets. The conversion of the lidar backscatter to stratospheric aerosol mass loading is referred to. Absolute measurements of total solar extinction from satellite orbits can be used to extract the aerosol extinction, and several examples of vertical profiles of extinction obtained with the SAGE satellite are given. Stratospheric mass loading can be inferred from extinction using approximate linear relationships but under restrictive conditions. Impactor sampling is essentially the only method in which the physical nature of the stratospheric aerosol is observed visually. Vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosol number concentration using impactor data are presented. Typical profiles using a dual-size-range photoelectric dustsonde particle counter are given for volcanically disturbed and inactive periods. Some measurements of the global distribution of stratospheric aerosols are also presented. Volatility measurements are described, indicating that stratospheric aerosols are composed primarily of about 75% sulfuric acid and 25% water

  6. The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, Philip W.

    1995-01-01

    The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

  7. Improved stratospheric atmosphere forecasts in the general circulation model through a methane oxidation parametrization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Jun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic characteristics of tropical stratospheric methane have been well researched using various satellite data, and numerical simulations have furtherly conducted using chemical climatic models, while the impact of stratospheric methane oxidation on distribution of water vapor is not paid enough attention in general circulation models. Simulated values of water vapour in the tropical upper stratosphere, and throughout much of the extratropical stratosphere, were too low. Something must be done to remedy this deficiency in order to producing realistic stratospheric water vapor using a general circulation model including the whole stratosphere. Introduction of a simple parametrization of the upper-stratospheric moisture source due to methane oxidation and a sink due to photolysis in the mesosphere was conducted. Numerical simulations and analysis of the influence of stratospheric methane on the prediction of tropical stratospheric moisture and temperature fields were carried out. This study presents the advantages of methane oxidation parametrization in producing a realistic distribution of water vapour in the tropical stratosphere and analyzes the impact of methane chemical process on the general circulation model using two storm cases including a heavy rain in South China and a typhoon caused tropical storm.It is obvious that general circulation model with methane oxidation parametrization succeeds in simulating the water vapor and temperature in stratosphere. The simulating rain center value of contrast experiment is increased up to 10% than that of the control experiment. Introduction of methane oxidation parametrization has modified the distribution of water vapour and then producing a broadly realistic distribution of temperature. Objective weather forecast verifications have been performed using simulating results of one month, which demonstrate somewhat positive effects on the model skill. There is a certain extent impact of methane oxidation

  8. Three dimensional model calculations of the global dispersion of high speed aircraft exhaust and implications for stratospheric ozone loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Anne R.; Rood, Richard B.; Jackman, Charles H.; Weaver, Clark J.

    1994-01-01

    Two-dimensional (zonally averaged) photochemical models are commonly used for calculations of ozone changes due to various perturbations. These include calculating the ozone change expected as a result of change in the lower stratospheric composition due to the exhaust of a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere. However, zonal asymmetries are anticipated to be important to this sort of calculation. The aircraft are expected to be restricted from flying over land at supersonic speed due to sonic booms, thus the pollutant source will not be zonally symmetric. There is loss of pollutant through stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but these processes are spatially and temporally inhomogeneous. Asymmetry in the pollutant distribution contributes to the uncertainty in the ozone changes calculated with two dimensional models. Pollutant distributions for integrations of at least 1 year of continuous pollutant emissions along flight corridors are calculated using a three dimensional chemistry and transport model. These distributions indicate the importance of asymmetry in the pollutant distributions to evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on ozone. The implications of such pollutant asymmetries to assessment calculations are discussed, considering both homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions.

  9. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  10. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  11. Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchholz, J.

    2005-04-20

    A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H{sub 2}O and HNO{sub 3} redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been

  12. Reverse Link CDMA System Capacity Evaluation for Stratospheric Platform Mobile Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskandar Iskandar

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose an analysis of reverse link CDMA multispot beam stratospheric platforms (SPF in this paper. The SPF is currently proposed as a novel wireless technology for the development of the next generation fixed and mobile communications. The geometry of this technology is different from that of the terrestrial but rather similar to the satellite based cellular system. However, evaluation on the CDMA system capacity of this technology has not been much reported. This paper addresses all possible multiple access interference analyses including the effects of channel fading and shadowing in order to evaluate the system capacity. Single SPF and multiple SPF model are evaluated under perfect power control and imperfect power control. The results indicate that in SPF systems the reverse link CDMA capacity is significantly reduced because of the power control imperfections. Moreover, in multiple SPF model the interference caused by the users in overlapped region is not trivial. We found that because of this problem the capacity is reduced for both speech and real-time data applications compared with the single SPF model even though the assumption of perfect power control can be made. In order to improve the system capacity we proposed two methods, first is to increase the minimum elevation angle definition for each platform and the second is to employ an adaptive antenna.

  13. Stratospheric contribution to the global bomb radiocarbon inventory: Model versus observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broecker, W.S.; Peng, T.H.

    1994-01-01

    An attempt is made, through modeling, to account for the decline in the 14 C/C ratio in atmospheric CO 2 after its bomb-test induced peak in 1963. The model suggests that as of 1964 about one third of the bomb 14 C remained in the stratosphere and that it was released to the troposphere with an e-folding time of about seven years. By contrast, measurements carried out in the stratosphere suggest that at that time the excess was closer to one quarter of the total and that e-folding time for its decline was 3±1 years. The anomaly between model and observation cannot be attributed solely to an inadequacy in the representation of the terrestrial biosphere. Rather, it must reflect either an inadequacy in the ocean model or in the measured stratospheric inventories. 24 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs

  14. Summary of the LLNL one-dimensional transport-kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere: 1981

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.

    1981-09-01

    Since the LLNL one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere was originally developed in 1972 (Chang et al., 1974), there have been many changes to the model's representation of atmospheric physical and chemical processes. A brief description is given of the current LLNL one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere

  15. A Semi-empirical Model of the Stratosphere in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodergren, A. H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.; Meinshausen, M.; McDonald, A.

    2014-12-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) currently used to project changes in Antarctic ozone are extremely computationally demanding. CCM projections are uncertain due to lack of knowledge of future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone depleting substances (ODSs), as well as parameterizations within the CCMs that have weakly constrained tuning parameters. While projections should be based on an ensemble of simulations, this is not currently possible due to the complexity of the CCMs. An inexpensive but realistic approach to simulate changes in stratospheric ozone, and its coupling to the climate system, is needed as a complement to CCMs. A simple climate model (SCM) can be used as a fast emulator of complex atmospheric-ocean climate models. If such an SCM includes a representation of stratospheric ozone, the evolution of the global ozone layer can be simulated for a wide range of GHG and ODS emissions scenarios. MAGICC is an SCM used in previous IPCC reports. In the current version of the MAGICC SCM, stratospheric ozone changes depend only on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC). In this work, MAGICC is extended to include an interactive stratospheric ozone layer using a semi-empirical model of ozone responses to CO2and EESC, with changes in ozone affecting the radiative forcing in the SCM. To demonstrate the ability of our new, extended SCM to generate projections of global changes in ozone, tuning parameters from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and 10 carbon cycle models (to create an ensemble of 190 simulations) have been used to generate probability density functions of the dates of return of stratospheric column ozone to 1960 and 1980 levels for different latitudes.

  16. Tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport of carbon monoxide and long-lived trace species in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pommrich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11, CCl2F2 (CFC-12, and CO2 in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv. Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling

  17. Modeling of Solar Radiation Management: A Comparison of Simulations Using Reduced Solar Constant and Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bala, G.; Kalidindi, S.; Modak, A.; Caldeira, K.

    2014-12-01

    Several climate modelling studies in the past have used reduction in solar constant to simulate the climatic effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) geoengineering. This is most likely valid only for space-based mirrors/reflectors but not for SRM methods that rely on stratospheric aerosols. In this study, we use a climate model to evaluate the differences in climate response to SRM by uniform solar constant reduction and stratospheric aerosols. The experiments are designed such that global mean warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2xCO2) is nearly cancelled in each case. In such a scenario, the residual climate effects are similar when important surface and tropospheric climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are considered. However, there are significant differences in stratospheric temperature response and diffuse and direct radiation reaching the surface. A difference of 1K in the global mean stratospheric (61-9.8 hPa) temperature is simulated between the two SRM methods, with warming in the aerosol scheme and a slight cooling for sunshades. While the global mean surface diffuse radiation increases by ~23% and direct radiation decreases by about 9% in the case of aerosol SRM method, both direct and diffuse radiation decrease by similar fractional amounts (~1.0%) when solar constant is reduced. When CO2 fertilization effects from elevated CO2 concentration levels are removed, the contribution from shaded leaves to gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 1.8 % in aerosol SRM because of increased diffuse light. However, this increase is almost offset by a 15.2% decline in sunlit contribution due to reduced direct light. Overall both the SRM simulations show similar decrease in GPP (~ 8%) and NPP (~3%) relative to 2xCO2, indicating the negligible effect of the fractional changes in direct/diffuse radiation on the overall plant productivity. Based on our modelling study, we conclude that the climate states produced by a

  18. Causes and impacts of changes in the stratospheric meridional circulation in a chemistry-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garny, Hella

    2011-05-13

    The stratospheric meridional circulation is projected to be subject to changes due to enhanced greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This study aims to diagnose and explain long-term changes in the stratospheric meridional circulation using the chemistry-climate model E39CA. The diagnosed strengthening of the circulation is found to be driven by increases in tropical sea surface temperatures which lead to a strengthening and upward shift of the subtropical jets. This enables enhanced vertical propagation of large scale waves into the lower stratosphere, and therefore stronger local wave forcing of the meridional circulation in the tropical lower stratosphere. The impact of changes in transport on the ozone layer is analysed using a newly developed method that allows the separation of the effects of transport and chemistry changes on ozone. It is found that future changes of mean stratospheric ozone concentrations are largely determined by changes in chemistry, while changes in transport of ozone play a minor role. (orig.)

  19. Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Eyring

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs and greenhouse gases (GHGs vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery. The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively. In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH, and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the

  20. A stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback for the stratospheric northern annular mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai

    2017-08-01

    We consider three indices to measure the polar stratospheric mass and stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability: anomalies of (1) total mass in the polar stratospheric cap (60-90°N, above the isentropic surface 400 K, PSM), (2) total adiabatic mass transport across 60°N into the polar stratosphere cap (AMT), (3) and total diabetic mass transport across 400 K from the polar stratosphere into the troposphere below (DMT). It is confirmed that the negative stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and PSM indices have a nearly indistinguishable temporal evolution and a similar red-noise-like spectrum with a de-correlation timescale of 4 weeks. This enables us to examine the low-frequency nature of the NAM in the framework of mass circulation, namely, d/{dt}{PSM}={AMT} - {DMT} . The DMT index tends to be positively correlated with the PSM with a red-noise-like spectrum, representing slow radiative cooling processes giving rise to a de-correlation timescale of 3-4 weeks. The AMT is nearly perfectly correlated with the day-to-day tendency of PSM, reflecting a robust quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM at all frequency bands. Variations of vertically westward tilting of planetary waves contribute mainly to the high-frequency portion of AMT. It is the wave amplitude's slow vacillation that plays the leading role in the quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM. Based on this, we put forward a linear stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback from low-frequency amplitude vacillations of planetary waves to explain the amplified low-frequency response of PSM/NAM to a stochastic forcing from the westward tilting variability.

  1. Direct stratospheric injection of biomass burning emissions: a case study of the 2009 Australian bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Robert; From, Mike; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew; Flannigan, Mike; Bernath, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Direct stratospheric injection (DSI) of forest fire smoke represents a direct biogeochemical link between the land surface and stratosphere. DSI events occur regularly in the northern and southern extratropics, and have been observed across a wide range of measurements, but their fate and effects are not well understood. DSIs result from explosive, short-lived fires, and their plumes stand out from background concentrations immediately. This makes it easier to associate detected DSIs to individual fires and their estimated emissions. Because the emissions pulses are brief, chemical decay can be more clearly assessed, and because the emissions pulses are so large, a wide range of rare chemical species can be detected. Observational evidence suggests that they can persist in the stratosphere for several months, enhance ozone production, and be self-lofted to the middle stratosphere through shortwave absorption and diabatic heating. None of these phenomena have been evaluated, however, with a physical model. To that end, we are simulating the smoke plumes from the February 2009 Australia 'Black Saturday' bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model, nudged toward horizontal winds from reanalysis. To-date, this is the best-observed DSI in the southern hemisphere. Chemical and aerosol signatures of the plume were observed in a wide array of limb and nadir satellite retrievals. Detailed estimates of fuel consumption and injection height have been made because of the severity of the fires. Uncommon among DSIs events was a large segment of the plume that entrained into the upper equatorial easterlies. Preliminary modeling results show that the relative strengths of the equatorial and extratropical plume segments are sensitive to the plume's initial injection height. This highlights the difficulty in reconciling uncertainty in the reanalysis over the Southern Hemisphere with fairly-well constrained estimates of fire location and injection height at the

  2. Impact of high speed civil transports on stratospheric ozone. A 2-D model investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinnison, D E; Connell, P S [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    This study investigates the effect on stratospheric ozone from a fleet of proposed High Speed Civil Transports (HSCTs). The new LLNL 2-D operator-split chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere is used for this HSCT investigation. This model is integrated in a diurnal manner, using an implicit numerical solver. Therefore, rate coefficients are not modified by any sort of diurnal average factor. This model also does not make any assumptions on lumping of chemical species into families. Comparisons to previous model-derived HSCT assessment of ozone change are made, both to the previous LLNL 2-D model and to other models from the international assessment modeling community. The sensitivity to the NO{sub x} emission index and sulfate surface area density is also explored. (author) 7 refs.

  3. Impact of high speed civil transports on stratospheric ozone. A 2-D model investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    This study investigates the effect on stratospheric ozone from a fleet of proposed High Speed Civil Transports (HSCTs). The new LLNL 2-D operator-split chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere is used for this HSCT investigation. This model is integrated in a diurnal manner, using an implicit numerical solver. Therefore, rate coefficients are not modified by any sort of diurnal average factor. This model also does not make any assumptions on lumping of chemical species into families. Comparisons to previous model-derived HSCT assessment of ozone change are made, both to the previous LLNL 2-D model and to other models from the international assessment modeling community. The sensitivity to the NO{sub x} emission index and sulfate surface area density is also explored. (author) 7 refs.

  4. The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

  5. Forecast, observation and modelling of a deep stratospheric intrusion event over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Zanis

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of measurements was carried out in central and southeastern Europe within the framework of the EU project STACCATO (Influence of Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange in a Changing Climate on Atmospheric Transport and Oxidation Capacity with the principle goal to create a comprehensive data set on stratospheric air intrusions into the troposphere along a rather frequently observed pathway over central Europe from the North Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The measurements were based on predictions by suitable quasi-operational trajectory calculations using ECMWF forecast data. A predicted deep Stratosphere to Troposphere Transport (STT event, encountered during the STACCATO period on 20-21 June 2001, was followed by the measurements network almost from its inception. Observations provide evidence that the intrusion affected large parts of central and southeastern Europe. Especially, the ozone lidar observations on 20-21 June 2001 at Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany captured the evolution of two marked tongues of high ozone with the first one descending to nearly 2 km, thus providing an excellent data set for model intercomparisons and validation. In addition, for the first time to our knowledge concurrent surface measurements of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 7Be and their ratio 10Be/7Be are presented together as stratospheric tracers in a case study of a stratospheric intrusion. The ozone tracer columns calculated with the FLEXPART model were found to be in good agreement with water vapour satellite images, capturing the evolution of the observed dry streamers of stratospheric origin. Furthermore, the time-height cross section of ozone tracer simulated with FLEXPART over Garmisch-Partenkirchen captures many details of the evolution of the two observed high-ozone filaments measured with the IFU lidar, thus demonstrating the considerable progress in model simulations. Finally, the modelled ozone (operationally available since October

  6. Treatment of dynamical processes in two-dimensional models of the troposphere and stratosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.

    1980-07-01

    The physical structure of the troposphere and stratosphere is the result of an intricate interplay among a large number of radiative, chemical, and dynamical processes. Because it is not possible to model the global environment in the laboratory, theoretical models must be relied on, subject to observational verification, to simulate atmospheric processes. Of particular concern in recent years has been the modeling of those processes affecting the structure of ozone and other trace species in the stratosphere and troposphere. Zonally averaged two-dimensional models with spatial resolution in the vertical and meridional directions can provide a much more realistic representation of tracer transport than one-dimensional models, yet are capable of the detailed representation of chemical and radiative processes contained in the one-dimensional models. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze existing approaches to representing global atmospheric transport processes in two-dimensional models and to discuss possible alternatives to these approaches. A general description of the processes controlling the transport of trace constituents in the troposphere and stratosphere is given

  7. Effects of model chemistry and data biases on stratospheric ozone assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Coy

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The innovations or observation minus forecast (O–F residuals produced by a data assimilation system provide a convenient metric of evaluating global analyses. In this study, O–F statistics from the Global Ozone Assimilation Testing System (GOATS are used to examine how ozone assimilation products and their associated O–F statistics depend on input data biases and ozone photochemistry parameterizations (OPP. All the GOATS results shown are based on a 6-h forecast and analysis cycle using observations from SBUV/2 (Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument-2 during September–October 2002. Results show that zonal mean ozone analyses are more independent of observation biases and drifts when using an OPP, while the mean ozone O–Fs are more sensitive to observation drifts when using an OPP. In addition, SD O–Fs (standard deviations are reduced in the upper stratosphere when using an OPP due to a reduction of forecast model noise and to increased covariance between the forecast model and the observations. Experiments that changed the OPP reference state to match the observations by using an "adaptive" OPP scheme reduced the mean ozone O–Fs at the expense of zonal mean ozone analyses being more susceptible to data biases and drifts. Additional experiments showed that the upper boundary of the ozone DAS can affect the quality of the ozone analysis and therefore should be placed well above (at least a scale height the region of interest.

  8. A model study of the plasma chemistry of stratospheric Blue Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Holger; Notholt, Justus

    2015-04-01

    Stratospheric Blue Jets (BJs) are upward propagating discharges in the altitude range 15-40 km above thunderstorms. They appear as conical bodies of blue light originating at the top of thunderclouds and proceed upward with velocities of the order of 100 km/s. Electric discharges in the atmosphere are known to have chemical effects. Of particular interest is the liberation of atomic oxygen and the formation of reactive nitrogen radicals. We have used a numerical plasma chemistry model in order to simulate the chemical processes in stratospheric BJs. It was applied to BJ streamers in the altitude range 18-38 km. The model results show that there is a production of ozone from atomic oxygen liberated at the streamer tips. At the same time, significant amounts of nitric oxide are produced. Compared to earlier plasma chemistry simulations of BJ streamers, the production of NO and O3 is by orders of magnitude larger. Additionally, the chemical processes in the leader part of a BJ have been simulated for the first time. In the leader channel, driven by high-temperature reactions, the concentration of N2O and NO increases by several orders of magnitude, and there is a significant depletion of ozone. The model results might gain importance by the fact that the chemical perturbations in BJs are largest at altitudes of the stratospheric ozone layer.

  9. A Model of the Effect of Ozone Depletion on Lower-Stratospheric Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Mark A.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Gupta, Mohan L.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Pawson, Steven

    2005-01-01

    We have run two twenty-year integrations of a global circulation model using 1978-1980 and 1998-2000 monthly mean ozone climatologies. The ozone climatology is used solely in the radiation scheme of the model. Several key differences between the model runs will be presented. The temperature and potential vorticity (PV) structure of the lower stratosphere, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, is significantly changed using the 1998-2000 ozone climatology. In the Southern Hemisphere summer, the lapse rate and PV-defined polar tropopauses are both at altitudes on the order of several hundred meters greater than the 1978-1980 climatological run. The 380 K potential temperature surf= is likewise at a greater altitude. The mass of the extratropical lowermost stratosphere (between the tropopause and 380 K surface) remains unchanged. The altitude differences are not observed in the Northern Hemisphere. The different ozone fields do not produce a significant change in the annual extratropical stratosphere-troposphere exchange of mass although slight variations in the spatial distribution of the exchange exist. We are also investigating a delay in the breakup of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex due to the differing ozone climatologies.

  10. Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

    2017-07-01

    The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx), HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect caused by the

  11. The simulation of stratospheric water vapor in the NH summer monsoon regions in a suite of WACCM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Tilmes, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water vapor maxima are found in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) over Asian and North America monsoon regions during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer months. High concentrations of stratospheric water vapor are associated with the upper-level anticyclonic circulation and they play an important role in the radiative forcing for the climate system. However, discrepancies in the simulation of stratospheric water vapor are found among different models. In this study, we use both observational data: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations (MLS), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and chemistry climate model outputs: different configurations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), including standard configuration of WACCM, WACCM L110, specified chemistry (SC) WACCM and specified dynamics (SD) WACCM. We find that WACCM L110 with finer vertical resolution better simulates the stratospheric water vapor maxima over the summer monsoon regions. To better understand the mechanism, we examine the simulated temperature at around 100 hPa since 100 hPa is known to act as a dehydration mechanism, i.e. the warmer the temperature, the wetter the stratospheric water vapor. We find that both WACCM L110 and SD-WACCM better simulate the temperature at 100 hPa as compared to that of MERRA2. This suggests that improving model vertical resolution and dynamical processes in the UTLS is crucial in simulating the stratospheric water vapor concentrations.

  12. A semi-empirical model for mesospheric and stratospheric NOy produced by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Funke

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The MIPAS Fourier transform spectrometer on board Envisat has measured global distributions of the six principal reactive nitrogen (NOy compounds (HNO3, NO2, NO, N2O5, ClONO2, and HNO4 during 2002–2012. These observations were used previously to detect regular polar winter descent of reactive nitrogen produced by energetic particle precipitation (EPP down to the lower stratosphere, often called the EPP indirect effect. It has further been shown that the observed fraction of NOy produced by EPP (EPP-NOy has a nearly linear relationship with the geomagnetic Ap index when taking into account the time lag introduced by transport. Here we exploit these results in a semi-empirical model for computation of EPP-modulated NOy densities and wintertime downward fluxes through stratospheric and mesospheric pressure levels. Since the Ap dependence of EPP-NOy is distorted during episodes of strong descent in Arctic winters associated with elevated stratopause events, a specific parameterization has been developed for these episodes. This model accurately reproduces the observations from MIPAS and is also consistent with estimates from other satellite instruments. Since stratospheric EPP-NOy depositions lead to changes in stratospheric ozone with possible implications for climate, the model presented here can be utilized in climate simulations without the need to incorporate many thermospheric and upper mesospheric processes. By employing historical geomagnetic indices, the model also allows for reconstruction of the EPP indirect effect since 1850. We found secular variations of solar cycle-averaged stratospheric EPP-NOy depositions on the order of 1 GM. In particular, we model a reduction of the EPP-NOy deposition rate during the last 3 decades, related to the coincident decline of geomagnetic activity that corresponds to 1.8 % of the NOy production rate by N2O oxidation. As the decline of the geomagnetic activity level is expected to continue in the

  13. STRATAQ: A three-dimensional Chemical Transport Model of the stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grassi

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional (3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM of the stratosphere has been developed and used for a test study of the evolution of chemical species in the arctic lower stratosphere during winter 1996/97. This particular winter has been chosen for testing the model’s capabilities for its remarkable dynamical situation (very cold and strong polar vortex along with the availability of sparse chlorine, HNO3 and O3 data, showing also very low O3 values in late March/April. Due to those unusual features, the winter 1996/97 can be considered an excellent example of the impact of both dynamics and heterogeneous reactions on the chemistry of the stratosphere. Model integration has been performed from January to March 1997 and the resulting long-lived and short-lived tracer fields compared with available measurements. The model includes a detailed gas phase chemical scheme and a parameterization of the heterogeneous reactions occurring on liquid aerosol and polar stratospheric cloud (PSC surfaces. The transport is calculated using a semi-lagrangian flux scheme, forced by meteorological analyses. In such form, the STRATAQ CTM model is suitable for short-term integrations to study transport and chemical evolution related to "real" meteorological situations. Model simulation during the chosen winter shows intense PSC formation, with noticeable local HNO3 capture by PSCs, and the activation of vortex air leading to chlorine production and subsequent O3 destruction. The resulting model fields show generally good agreement with satellite data (MLS and TOMS, although the available observations, due to their limited number and time/space sparse nature, are not enough to effectively constraint the model. In particular, the model seems to perform well in reproducing the rapid processing of air inside the polar vortex on PSC converting reservoir species in active chlorine. In addition, it satisfactorily reproduces the morphology of the continuous O3

  14. STRATAQ: A three-dimensional Chemical Transport Model of the stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grassi

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional (3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM of the stratosphere has been developed and used for a test study of the evolution of chemical species in the arctic lower stratosphere during winter 1996/97. This particular winter has been chosen for testing the model’s capabilities for its remarkable dynamical situation (very cold and strong polar vortex along with the availability of sparse chlorine, HNO3 and O3 data, showing also very low O3 values in late March/April. Due to those unusual features, the winter 1996/97 can be considered an excellent example of the impact of both dynamics and heterogeneous reactions on the chemistry of the stratosphere. Model integration has been performed from January to March 1997 and the resulting long-lived and short-lived tracer fields compared with available measurements. The model includes a detailed gas phase chemical scheme and a parameterization of the heterogeneous reactions occurring on liquid aerosol and polar stratospheric cloud (PSC surfaces. The transport is calculated using a semi-lagrangian flux scheme, forced by meteorological analyses. In such form, the STRATAQ CTM model is suitable for short-term integrations to study transport and chemical evolution related to "real" meteorological situations. Model simulation during the chosen winter shows intense PSC formation, with noticeable local HNO3 capture by PSCs, and the activation of vortex air leading to chlorine production and subsequent O3 destruction. The resulting model fields show generally good agreement with satellite data (MLS and TOMS, although the available observations, due to their limited number and time/space sparse nature, are not enough to effectively constraint the model. In particular, the model seems to perform well in reproducing the rapid processing of air inside the polar vortex on PSC converting reservoir species in active chlorine. In addition, it

  15. Merged SAGE II, Ozone_cci and OMPS ozone profile dataset and evaluation of ozone trends in the stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. F. Sofieva

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a merged dataset of ozone profiles from several satellite instruments: SAGE II on ERBS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY and MIPAS on Envisat, OSIRIS on Odin, ACE-FTS on SCISAT, and OMPS on Suomi-NPP. The merged dataset is created in the framework of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci with the aim of analyzing stratospheric ozone trends. For the merged dataset, we used the latest versions of the original ozone datasets. The datasets from the individual instruments have been extensively validated and intercompared; only those datasets which are in good agreement, and do not exhibit significant drifts with respect to collocated ground-based observations and with respect to each other, are used for merging. The long-term SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset is created by computation and merging of deseasonalized anomalies from individual instruments. The merged SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset consists of deseasonalized anomalies of ozone in 10° latitude bands from 90° S to 90° N and from 10 to 50 km in steps of 1 km covering the period from October 1984 to July 2016. This newly created dataset is used for evaluating ozone trends in the stratosphere through multiple linear regression. Negative ozone trends in the upper stratosphere are observed before 1997 and positive trends are found after 1997. The upper stratospheric trends are statistically significant at midlatitudes and indicate ozone recovery, as expected from the decrease of stratospheric halogens that started in the middle of the 1990s and stratospheric cooling.

  16. Summary of photochemical and radiative data used in the LLNL one-dimensional transport-kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere: 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connell, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1983-01-01

    This report summarizes the contents and sources of the photochemical and radiative segment of the LLNL one-dimensional transport-kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Data include the solar flux incident at the top of the atmosphere, absorption spectra for O 2 , O 3 and NO 2 , and effective absorption coefficients for about 40 photolytic processes as functions of wavelength and, in a few cases, temperature and pressure. The current data set represents understanding of atmospheric photochemical processes as of late 1982 and relies largely on NASA Evaluation Number 5 of Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling, JPL Publication 82-57 (DeMore et al., 1982). Implementation in the model, including the treatment of multiple scattering and cloud cover, is discussed in Wuebbles (1981)

  17. Toward a Combined SAGE II-HALOE Aerosol Climatology: An Evaluation of HALOE Version 19 Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction Coefficient Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomason, L. W.

    2012-01-01

    Herein, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) aerosol extinction coefficient data is evaluated in the low aerosol loading period after 1996 as the first necessary step in a process that will eventually allow the production of a combined HALOE/SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) aerosol climatology of derived aerosol products including surface area density. Based on these analyses, it is demonstrated that HALOE's 3.46 microns is of good quality above 19 km and suitable for scientific applications above that altitude. However, it is increasingly suspect at lower altitudes and should not be used below 17 km under any circumstances after 1996. The 3.40 microns is biased by about 10% throughout the lower stratosphere due to the failure to clear NO2 but otherwise appears to be a high quality product down to 15 km. The 2.45 and 5.26 micron aerosol extinction coefficient measurements are clearly biased and should not be used for scientific applications after the most intense parts of the Pinatubo period. Many of the issues in the aerosol data appear to be related to either the failure to clear some interfering gas species or doing so poorly. For instance, it is clear that the 3.40micronaerosol extinction coefficient measurements can be improved through the inclusion of an NO2 correction and could, in fact, end up as the highest quality overall HALOE aerosol extinction coefficient measurement. It also appears that the 2.45 and 5.26 micron channels may be improved by updating the Upper Atmosphere Pilot Database which is used as a resource for the removal of gas species otherwise not available from direct HALOE measurements. Finally, a simple model to demonstrate the promise of mixed visible/infrared aerosol extinction coefficient ensembles for the retrieval of bulk aerosol properties demonstrates that a combined HALOE/SAGE II aerosol climatology is feasible and may represent a substantial improvement over independently derived data sets.

  18. Isolating the Roles of Different Forcing Agents in Global Stratospheric Temperature Changes Using Model Integrations with Incrementally Added Single Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2016-01-01

    Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely

  19. Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

    2018-02-01

    A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

  20. Modeling of biomass smoke injection into the lower stratosphere by a large forest fire (Part I: reference simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Trentmann

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Wildland fires in boreal regions have the potential to initiate deep convection, so-called pyro-convection, due to their release of sensible heat. Under favorable atmospheric conditions, large fires can result in pyro-convection that transports the emissions into the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere. Here, we present three-dimensional model simulations of the injection of fire emissions into the lower stratosphere by pyro-convection. These model simulations are constrained and evaluated with observations obtained from the Chisholm fire in Alberta, Canada, in 2001. The active tracer high resolution atmospheric model (ATHAM is initialized with observations obtained by radiosonde. Information on the fire forcing is obtained from ground-based observations of the mass and moisture of the burned fuel. Based on radar observations, the pyro-convection reached an altitude of about 13 km, well above the tropopause, which was located at about 11.2 km. The model simulation yields a similarly strong convection with an overshoot of the convection above the tropopause. The main outflow from the pyro-convection occurs at about 10.6 km, but a significant fraction (about 8% of the emitted mass of the smoke aerosol is transported above the tropopause. In contrast to regular convection, the region with maximum updraft velocity in the pyro-convection is located close to the surface above the fire. This results in high updraft velocities >10 m s−1 at cloud base. The temperature anomaly in the plume decreases rapidly with height from values above 50 K at the fire to about 5 K at about 3000 m above the fire. While the sensible heat released from the fire is responsible for the initiation of convection in the model, the release of latent heat from condensation and freezing dominates the overall energy budget. Emissions of water vapor from the fire do not significantly contribute to the energy budget of the convection.

  1. Influence of inter-annual variations of stratospheric dynamics in model simulations of ozone losses by aircraft emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadin, E.A. [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    The questions of model predictions of aircraft emission impacts on the ozone variations are considered. Using the NMC data it is shown that the stratospheric circulation underwent the abrupt transition to a new regime in summer 1980. The strong correlations are found between the monthly mean total ozone and stratospheric angular momentum anomalies during 1979-1991. The natural long-term changes of transport processes are necessary to take into account in model simulations of anthropogenic impacts on the ozone layer. (author) 12 refs.

  2. Influence of inter-annual variations of stratospheric dynamics in model simulations of ozone losses by aircraft emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadin, E A [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

    1998-12-31

    The questions of model predictions of aircraft emission impacts on the ozone variations are considered. Using the NMC data it is shown that the stratospheric circulation underwent the abrupt transition to a new regime in summer 1980. The strong correlations are found between the monthly mean total ozone and stratospheric angular momentum anomalies during 1979-1991. The natural long-term changes of transport processes are necessary to take into account in model simulations of anthropogenic impacts on the ozone layer. (author) 12 refs.

  3. High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.

  4. Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

  5. A condensed-mass advection based model for the simulation of liquid polar stratospheric clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Lowe

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a condensed-mass advection based model (MADVEC designed to simulate the condensation/evaporation of liquid polar stratospheric cloud (PSC particles. A (Eulerian-in-radius discretization scheme is used, making the model suitable for use in global or mesoscale chemistry and transport models (CTMs. The mass advection equations are solved using an adaption of the weighted average flux (WAF scheme. We validate the numerical scheme using an analytical solution for multicomponent aerosols. The physics of the model are tested using a test case designed by Meilinger et al. (1995. The results from this test corroborate the composition gradients across the size distribution under rapid cooling conditions that were reported in earlier studies.

  6. On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Monge-Sanz

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates effects and applications of a new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane and water vapour. The new scheme (CoMeCAT is derived from a 3-D full-chemistry-transport model (CTM. It is suitable for any global model, and is shown here to produce realistic profiles in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D CTM and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts general circulation model (GCM. Results from the new scheme are in good agreement with the full-chemistry CTM CH4 field and with observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. The scheme is also used to derive stratospheric water increments, which in the CTM produce vertical and latitudinal H2O variations in fair agreement with satellite observations. Stratospheric H2O distributions in the ECMWF GCM show realistic overall features, although concentrations are smaller than in the CTM run (up to 0.5 ppmv smaller above 10 hPa. The potential of the new CoMeCAT tracer for evaluating stratospheric transport is exploited to assess the impacts of nudging the free-running GCM to ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The nudged GCM shows similar transport patterns to the offline CTM forced by the corresponding reanalysis data. The new scheme also impacts radiation and temperature in the model. Compared to the default CH4 climatology and H2O used by the ECMWF radiation scheme, the main effect on ECMWF temperatures when considering both CH4 and H2O from CoMeCAT is a decrease of up to 1.0 K over the tropical mid/low stratosphere. The effect of using the CoMeCAT scheme for radiative forcing (RF calculations is investigated using the offline Edwards–Slingo radiative transfer model. Compared to the default model option of a tropospheric global 3-D CH4 value, the CoMeCAT distribution produces an overall change in the annual mean net RF of up to −30 mW m−2.

  7. SPICE Work Package 3: Modelling the Effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Simon

    2015-04-01

    This talk presents the results of the SPICE Work Package 3. There is an obvious need for methods to verify the accuracy of geoengineering given no observations of a geoengineering programme. Accordingly, model ability in reproducing the observed dynamical response to volcanic eruptions is discussed using analysis of CMIP5 data and different configurations of the HadGEM2 model. With the HadGEM2-L60 model shown to be substantially better in reproducing the observed dynamical response to volcanic eruptions, simulations of GeoMIP's G4 scenario are performed. Simulated impacts of geoengineering are described, and asymmetries between the immediate onset and immediate cessation ('termination') of geoengineering are analysed. Whilst a rapid large increase in stratospheric sulphate aerosols (such as from volcanic eruptions) can cause substantial damage, most volcanic eruptions in general are not catastrophic. One may therefore suspect that an 'equal but opposite' change in radiative forcing from termination may therefore not be catastrophic, if the climatic response is simulated to be symmetric. HadGEM2 simulations reveal a substantially more rapid change in variables such as near-surface temperature and precipitation following termination than the onset, indicating that termination may be substantially more damaging and even catastrophic. Some suggestions for hemispherically asymmetric geoengineering have been proposed as a way to reduce Northern Hemisphere sea ice, for example, with lesser impacts on the rest of the climate. However, HadGEM2 simulations are performed and observations analysed following volcanic eruptions. Both indicate substantial averse consequences from hemispherically asymmetric loading of stratospheric loading on precipitation in the Sahelian region - a vulnerable region where drought has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and created millions of refugees in the past.

  8. A new global real-time Lagrangian diagnostic system for stratosphere-troposphere exchange: evaluation during a balloon sonde campaign in eastern Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Bourqui

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A new global real-time Lagrangian diagnostic system for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE developed for Environment Canada (EC has been delivering daily archived data since July 2010. The STE calculations are performed following the Lagrangian approach proposed in Bourqui (2006 using medium-range, high-resolution operational global weather forecasts. Following every weather forecast, trajectories are started from a dense three-dimensional grid covering the globe, and are calculated forward in time for six days of the forecast. All trajectories crossing either the dynamical tropopause (±2 PVU or the 380 K isentrope and having a residence time greater than 12 h are archived, and also used to calculate several diagnostics. This system provides daily global STE forecasts that can be used to guide field campaigns, among other applications. The archived data set offers unique high-resolution information on transport across the tropopause for both extra-tropical hemispheres and the tropics. This will be useful for improving our understanding of STE globally, and as a reference for the evaluation of lower-resolution models. This new data set is evaluated here against measurements taken during a balloon sonde campaign with daily launches from three stations in eastern Canada (Montreal, Egbert, and Walsingham for the period 12 July to 4 August 2010. The campaign found an unexpectedly high number of observed stratospheric intrusions: 79% (38% of the profiles appear to show the presence of stratospheric air below than 500 hPa (700 hPa. An objective identification algorithm developed for this study is used to identify layers in the balloon-sonde profiles affected by stratospheric air and to evaluate the Lagrangian STE forecasts. We find that the predictive skill for the overall intrusion depth is very good for intrusions penetrating down to 300 and 500 hPa, while it becomes negligible for intrusions penetrating below 700 hPa. Nevertheless, the

  9. Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

    2009-01-01

    Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

  10. Toward a combined SAGE II-HALOE aerosol climatology: an evaluation of HALOE version 19 stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. W. Thomason

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Herein, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE aerosol extinction coefficient data is evaluated in the low aerosol loading period after 1996 as the first necessary step in a process that will eventually allow the production of a combined HALOE/SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment aerosol climatology of derived aerosol products including surface area density. Based on these analyses, it is demonstrated that HALOE's 3.46 μm is of good quality above 19 km and suitable for scientific applications above that altitude. However, it is increasingly suspect at lower altitudes and should not be used below 17 km under any circumstances after 1996. The 3.40 μm is biased by about 10% throughout the lower stratosphere due to the failure to clear NO2 but otherwise appears to be a high quality product down to 15 km. The 2.45 and 5.26 μm aerosol extinction coefficient measurements are clearly biased and should not be used for scientific applications after the most intense parts of the Pinatubo period. Many of the issues in the aerosol data appear to be related to either the failure to clear some interfering gas species or doing so poorly. For instance, it is clear that the 3.40 μm aerosol extinction coefficient measurements can be improved through the inclusion of an NO2 correction and could, in fact, end up as the highest quality overall HALOE aerosol extinction coefficient measurement. It also appears that the 2.45 and 5.26 μm channels may be improved by updating the Upper Atmosphere Pilot Database which is used as a resource for the removal of gas species otherwise not available from direct HALOE measurements. Finally, a simple model to demonstrate the promise of mixed visible/infrared aerosol extinction coefficient ensembles for the retrieval of bulk aerosol properties demonstrates that a combined HALOE/SAGE II aerosol climatology is feasible and may represent a substantial improvement over independently derived

  11. Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. H. Daffer

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM, and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results

  12. Finding the Missing Stratospheric Br(sub y): A Global Modeling Study of CHBr3 and CH2Br2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Q.; Stolarski, R. S.; Kawa, S. R.; Nielsen, J. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Blake, D. R.; Atlas, E. L.; Ott, L. E.

    2010-01-01

    Recent in situ and satellite measurements suggest a contribution of 5 pptv to stratospheric inorganic bromine from short-lived bromocarbons. We conduct a modeling study of the two most important short-lived bromocarbons, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to account for this missing stratospheric bromine. We derive a "top-down" emission estimate of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 using airborne measurements in the Pacific and North American troposphere and lower stratosphere obtained during previous NASA aircraft campaigns. Our emission estimate suggests that to reproduce the observed concentrations in the free troposphere, a global oceanic emission of 425 Gg Br yr(exp -1) for CHBr3 and 57 Gg Br yr(exp -l) for CH2Br2 is needed, with 60% of emissions from open ocean and 40% from coastal regions. Although our simple emission scheme assumes no seasonal variations, the model reproduces the observed seasonal variations of the short-lived bromocarbons with high concentrations in winter and low concentrations in summer. This indicates that the seasonality of short-lived bromocarbons is largely due to seasonality in their chemical loss and transport. The inclusion of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 contributes 5 pptv bromine throughout the stratosphere. Both the source gases and inorganic bromine produced from source gas degradation (BrSLS) in the troposphere are transported into the stratosphere, and are equally important. Inorganic bromine accounts for half (2.5 pptv) of the bromine from the inclusion of CHBr3 and CHzBr2 near the tropical tropopause and its contribution rapidly increases to 100% as altitude increases. More than 85% of the wet scavenging of Br(sub y)(sup VSLS) occurs in large-scale precipitation below 500 hPa. Our sensitivity study with wet scavenging in convective updrafts switched off suggests that Br(sub y)(sup SLS) in the stratosphere is not sensitive to convection. Convective scavenging only

  13. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dörnbrack

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

  14. Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraro, Angus J; Griffiths, Hannah G

    2016-01-01

    The reduction in global-mean precipitation when stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is used to counterbalance global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations has been mainly attributed to the temperature-independent effect of CO 2 on atmospheric radiative cooling. We demonstrate here that stratospheric sulphate aerosol itself also acts to reduce global-mean precipitation independent of its effects on temperature. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoenginering on global-mean precipitation is calculated by removing temperature-dependent effects from climate model simulations of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). When sulphate aerosol is injected into the stratosphere at a rate of 5 Tg SO 2 per year the aerosol reduces global-mean precipitation by approximately 0.2 %, though multiple ensemble members are required to separate this effect from internal variability. For comparison, the precipitation reduction from the temperature-independent effect of increasing CO 2 concentrations under the RCP4.5 scenario of the future is approximately 0.5 %. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric sulphate aerosol arises from the aerosol’s effect on tropospheric radiative cooling. Radiative transfer calculations show this is mainly due to increasing downward emission of infrared radiation by the aerosol, but there is also a contribution from the stratospheric warming the aerosol causes. Our results suggest climate model simulations of solar dimming can capture the main features of the global-mean precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

  15. A simple kinematic model for the Lagrangian description of relevant nonlinear processes in the stratospheric polar vortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. J. García-Garrido

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we study the Lagrangian footprint of the planetary waves present in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the exceptional sudden Stratospheric warming event that took place during September 2002. Our focus is on constructing a simple kinematic model that retains the fundamental mechanisms responsible for complex fluid parcel evolution, during the polar vortex breakdown and its previous stages. The construction of the kinematic model is guided by the Fourier decomposition of the geopotential field. The study of Lagrangian transport phenomena in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data highlights hyperbolic trajectories, and these trajectories are Lagrangian objects that are the kinematic mechanism for the observed filamentation phenomena. Our analysis shows that the breaking and splitting of the polar vortex is justified in our model by the sudden growth of a planetary wave and the decay of the axisymmetric flow.

  16. Intercomparison and evaluation of satellite peroxyacetyl nitrate observations in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Pope

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN is an important chemical species in the troposphere as it aids the long-range transport of NOx and subsequent formation of O3 in relatively clean remote regions. Over the past few decades observations from aircraft campaigns and surface sites have been used to better understand the regional distribution of PAN. However, recent measurements made by satellites allow for a global assessment of PAN in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS. In this study, we investigate global PAN distributions from two independent retrieval methodologies, based on measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS instrument, on board Envisat from the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester (UoL. Retrieving PAN from MIPAS is challenging due to the weak signal in the measurements and contamination from other species. Therefore, we compare the two MIPAS datasets with observations from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS, in situ aircraft data and the 3-D chemical transport model TOMCAT. MIPAS shows peak UTLS PAN concentrations over the biomass burning regions (e.g. ranging from 150 to  >  200 pptv at 150 hPa and during the summertime Asian monsoon as enhanced convection aids the vertical transport of PAN from the lower atmosphere. At 150 hPa, we find significant differences between the two MIPAS datasets in the tropics, where IMK PAN concentrations are larger by 50–100 pptv. Comparisons between MIPAS and ACE-FTS show better agreement with the UoL MIPAS PAN concentrations at 200 hPa, but with mixed results above this altitude. TOMCAT generally captures the magnitude and structure of climatological aircraft PAN profiles within the observational variability allowing it to be used to investigate the MIPAS PAN differences

  17. Modeling study of the ionospheric responses to the quasi-biennial oscillations of the sun and stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jack C.; Tsai-Lin, Rong; Chang, Loren C.; Wu, Qian; Lin, Charles C. H.; Yue, Jia

    2018-06-01

    The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a persistent oscillation in the zonal mean zonal winds of the low latitude middle atmosphere that is driven by breaking planetary and gravity waves with a period near two years. The atmospheric tides that dominate the dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region (MLT, between heights of 70-120 km) are excited in the troposphere and stratosphere, and propagate through QBO-modulated zonal mean zonal wind fields. This allows the MLT tidal response to also be modulated by the QBO, with implications for ionospheric/thermospheric variability. Interannual oscillations in solar radiation can also directly drive the variations in the ionosphere with similar periodicities through the photoionization. Many studies have observed the connection between the solar activity and QBO signal in ionospheric features such as total electron content (TEC). In this research, we develop an empirical model to isolate stratospheric QBO-related tidal variability in the MLT diurnal and semidiurnal tides using values from assimilated TIMED satellite data. Migrating tidal fields corresponding to stratospheric QBO eastward and westward phases, as well as with the quasi-biennial variations in solar activity isolated by the Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) analysis from Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), are then used to drive the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). The numerical experiment results indicate that the ionospheric QBO is mainly driven by the solar quasi-biennial variations during the solar maximum, since the solar quasi-biennial variation amplitude is directly proportionate to the solar cycle. The ionospheric QBO in the model is sensitive to both the stratospheric QBO and solar quasi-biennial variations during the solar minimum, with solar effects still playing a stronger role.

  18. Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Wohltmann

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs and Earth system models (ESMs to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx, HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect

  19. Polar stratospheric cloud evolution and chlorine activation measured by CALIPSO and MLS, and modeled by ATLAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Nakajima

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We examined observations of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs by CALIPSO, and of HCl and ClO by MLS along air mass trajectories, to investigate the dependence of the inferred PSC composition on the temperature history of the air parcels and the dependence of the level of chlorine activation on PSC composition. Several case studies based on individual trajectories from the Arctic winter 2009/2010 were conducted, with the trajectories chosen such that the first processing of the air mass by PSCs in this winter occurred on the trajectory. Transitions of PSC composition classes were observed to be highly dependent on the temperature history. In cases of a gradual temperature decrease, nitric acid trihydrate (NAT and super-cooled ternary solution (STS mixture clouds were observed. In cases of rapid temperature decrease, STS clouds were first observed, followed by NAT/STS mixture clouds. When temperatures dropped below the frost point, ice clouds formed and then transformed into NAT/STS mixture clouds when temperature increased above the frost point. The threshold temperature for rapid chlorine activation on PSCs is approximately 4 K below the NAT existence temperature, TNAT. Furthermore, simulations of the ATLAS chemistry and transport box model along the trajectories were used to corroborate the measurements and show good agreement with the observations. Rapid chlorine activation was observed when an air mass encountered PSCs. Usually, chlorine activation was limited by the amount of available ClONO2. Where ClONO2 was not the limiting factor, a large dependence on temperature was evident.

  20. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  1. Stratospheric H2O

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1979-01-01

    Documentation of the extreme aridity (approx. 3% relative humidity) of the lower stratosphere and the rapid decrease of mixing ratio with height just above the polar tropopause (20-fold in the 1st km) was begun by Dobson et al., (1946) in 1943. They recognized that this extreme and persistent aridity must be dynamically maintained else it would have been wiped out by turbulent diffusion. This led Brewer (1949) to hypothesize a stratospheric circulation in which all air enters through the tropical tropopause where it is freeze dried to a mass mixing ratio of 2 to 3 ppM. This dry air then spreads poleward and descends through the polar tropopauses overpowering upward transport of water vapor by diffusion which would otherwise be permitted by the much warmer temperatures of the polar tropopauses. Questions can indeed be raised as to the absolute magnitudes of stratospheric mixing ratios, the effective temperature of the tropical tropopause cold trap, the reality of winter pole freeze-dry sinks and the representativeness of the available observations suggesting an H 2 O mixing ratio maximum just above the tropical tropopause and a constant mixing ratio from the tropopause to 30 to 35 km. However, no model that better fits all of the available data is available, than does the Brewer (1949) hypothesis coupled with a lower stratosphere winter pole, freeze-dry sink, at least over Antarctica

  2. Investigating Ozone Sources in California Using AJAX Airborne Measurements and Models: Implications for Stratospheric Intrusion and Long Range Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryoo, Ju-Mee; Johnson, Matthew S.; Iraci, Laura T.; Yates, Emma L.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Tanaka, Tomoaki; Gore, Warren

    2016-01-01

    High ozone concentrations at low altitudes near the surface were detected from airborne Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) measurements on May 30, 2012. We investigate the causes of the elevated ozone concentrations using the airborne measurements and various models. GEOSchem and WRF-STILT model simulations show that the contribution from local sources is small. From MERRA reanalysis, it is found that high potential vorticity (PV) is observed at low altitudes. This high PV appears to be only partially coming through the stratospheric intrusions because the air inside the high PV region is moist, which shows that mixing appears to be enhanced in the low altitudes. Considering that diabatic heating can also produce high PV in the lower troposphere, high ozone is partially coming through stratospheric intrusion, but this cannot explain the whole ozone concentration in the target areas of the western U.S. A back-trajectory model is utilized to see where the air masses originated. The air masses of the target areas came from the lower stratosphere (LS), upper (UT), mid- (MT), and lower troposphere (LT). The relative number of trajectories coming from LS and UT is low (7.7% and 7.6%, respectively) compared to that from LT (64.1%), but the relative ozone concentration coming from LS and UT is high (38.4% and 20.95%, respectively) compared to that from LT (17.7%). The air mass coming from LT appears to be mostly coming from Asia. Q diagnostics show that there is sufficient mixing along the trajectory to indicate that ozone from the different origins is mixed and transported to the western U.S. This study shows that high ozone concentrations can be detected by airborne measurements, which can be analyzed by integrated platforms such as models, reanalysis, and satellite data.

  3. Investigation of Ozone Sources in California Using AJAX Airborne Measurements and Models: Implications for Stratospheric Intrusion and Long Range Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryoo, Ju-Mee; Johnson, Matthew S.; Iraci, Laura T.; Yates, Emma L.; Pierce, R. Bradley; Tanaka, Tomoaki; Gore, Warren

    2015-01-01

    High ozone concentrations at low altitudes near the surface were detected from airborne Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) measurements on May 30, 2012. We investigate the causes of the elevated ozone concentrations using the airborne measurements and various models. GEOS-chem and WRF-STILT model simulations show that the contribution from local sources is small. From MERRA reanalysis, it is found that high potential vorticity (PV) is observed at low altitudes. This high PV appears to be only partially coming through the stratospheric intrusions because the air inside the high PV region is moist, which shows that mixing appears to be enhanced in the low altitudes. Considering that diabatic heating can also produce high PV in the lower troposphere, high ozone is partially coming through stratospheric intrusion, but this cannot explain the whole ozone concentration in the target areas of the western U.S. A back-trajectory model is utilized to see where the air masses originated. The air masses of the target areas came from the lower stratosphere (LS), upper (UT), mid- (MT), and lower troposphere (LT). The relative number of trajectories coming from LS and UT is low (7.7 and 7.6, respectively) compared to that from LT (64.1), but the relative ozone concentration coming from LS and UT is high (38.4 and 20.95, respectively) compared to that from LT (17.7). The air mass coming from LT appears to be mostly coming from Asia. Q diagnostics show that there is sufficient mixing along the trajectory to indicate that ozone from the different origins is mixed and transported to the western U.S. This study shows that high ozone concentrations can be detected by airborne measurements, which can be analyzed by integrated platforms such as models, reanalysis, and satellite data.

  4. Sensitivity studies and a simple ozone perturbation experiment with a truncated two-dimensional model of the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stordal, Frode; Garcia, Rolando R.

    1987-01-01

    The 1-1/2-D model of Holton (1986), which is actually a highly truncated two-dimensional model, describes latitudinal variations of tracer mixing ratios in terms of their projections onto second-order Legendre polynomials. The present study extends the work of Holton by including tracers with photochemical production in the stratosphere (O3 and NOy). It also includes latitudinal variations in the photochemical sources and sinks, improving slightly the calculated global mean profiles for the long-lived tracers studied by Holton and improving substantially the latitudinal behavior of ozone. Sensitivity tests of the dynamical parameters in the model are performed, showing that the response of the model to changes in vertical residual meridional winds and horizontal diffusion coefficients is similar to that of a full two-dimensional model. A simple ozone perturbation experiment shows the model's ability to reproduce large-scale latitudinal variations in total ozone column depletions as well as ozone changes in the chemically controlled upper stratosphere.

  5. Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves During the WB57F Aerosol Mission and Modeling with Mesoscale Model 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, M.; Hicke, J.; Rosenlof, K.; Tuck, A.; Hovde, S.

    2000-01-01

    On April 11, 1998 WB57F aircraft flew northwest at lower stratospheric altitudes from Houston, Texas, over eastern Wyoming as part of the WB57F Aerosol Mission to sample a vortex filament forecast to pass over that region.

  6. The Sensitivity of Arctic Ozone Loss to Polar Stratospheric Cloud Volume and Chlorine and Bromine Loading in a Chemistry and Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Strahan, S. E.; Polansky, B. C.

    2006-01-01

    The sensitivity of Arctic ozone loss to polar stratospheric cloud volume (V(sub PSC)) and chlorine and bromine loading is explored using chemistry and transport models (CTMs). A simulation using multi-decadal output from a general circulation model (GCM) in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) CTM complements one recycling a single year s GCM output in the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM. Winter polar ozone loss in the GSFC CTM depends on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and polar vortex characteristics (temperatures, descent, isolation, polar stratospheric cloud amount). Polar ozone loss in the GMI CTM depends only on changes in EESC as the dynamics repeat annually. The GSFC CTM simulation reproduces a linear relationship between ozone loss and Vpsc derived from observations for 1992 - 2003 which holds for EESC within approx.85% of its maximum (approx.1990 - 2020). The GMI simulation shows that ozone loss varies linearly with EESC for constant, high V(sub PSC).

  7. Modeling the interaction of ozone with chloroform and bromoform under conditions close to stratospheric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strokova, N. E.; Yagodovskaya, T. V.; Savilov, S. V.; Lukhovitskaya, E. E.; Vasil'ev, E. S.; Morozov, I. I.; Lunin, V. V.

    2013-02-01

    The reactions of ozone with chloroform and bromoform are studied using a flow gas discharge vacuum unit under conditions close to stratospheric (temperature range, 77-250 K; pressure, 10-3-0.1 Torr in the presence of nitrate ice). It is shown that the reaction with bromoform begins at 160 K; the reaction with chloroform, at 190 K. The reaction products are chlorine and bromine oxides of different composition, identified by low-temperature FTIR spectroscopy. The presence of nitrate ice raises the temperature of reaction onset to 210 K.

  8. Towards constraining the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of radiocarbon: strategies of stratospheric 14CO2 measurements using AirCore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huilin; Paul, Dipayan; Meijer, Harro; Miller, John; Kivi, Rigel; Krol, Maarten

    2016-04-01

    Radiocarbon (14C) plays an important role in the carbon cycle studies to understand both natural and anthropogenic carbon fluxes, but also in atmospheric chemistry to constrain hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations in the atmosphere. Apart from the enormous 14C emissions from nuclear bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s, radiocarbon is primarily produced in the stratosphere due to the cosmogenic production. To this end, better understanding the stratospheric radiocarbon source is very useful to advance the use of radiocarbon for these applications. However, stratospheric 14C observations have been very limited so that there are large uncertainties on the magnitude and the location of the 14C production as well as the transport of radiocarbon from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Recently we have successfully made stratospheric 14C measurements using AirCore samples from Sodankylä, Northern Finland. AirCore is an innovative atmospheric sampling system, which passively collects atmospheric air samples into a long piece of coiled stainless steel tubing during the descent of a balloon flight. Due to the relatively low cost of the consumables, there is a potential to make such AirCore profiling in other parts of the world on a regular basis. In this study, we simulate the 14C in the atmosphere and assess the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of radiocarbon using the TM5 model. The Sodankylä radiocarbon measurements will be used to verify the performance of the model at high latitude. Besides this, we will also evaluate the influence of different cosmogenic 14C production scenarios and the uncertainties in the OH field on the seasonal cycles of radiocarbon and on the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and based on the results design a strategy to set up a 14C measurement program using AirCore.

  9. Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents-Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Yutian; Smith, Karen L.

    2018-01-01

    To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1-2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic.

  10. Sensitivity of the radiative forcing by stratospheric sulfur geoengineering to the amount and strategy of the SO2injection studied with the LMDZ-S3A model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinschmitt, Christoph; Boucher, Olivier; Platt, Ulrich

    2018-02-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming. Previous modelling studies found that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) could effectively compensate for the warming by greenhouse gases on the global scale, but also that the achievable cooling effect per sulfur mass unit, i.e. the forcing efficiency, decreases with increasing injection rate. In this study we use the atmospheric general circulation model LMDZ with the sectional aerosol module S3A to determine how the forcing efficiency depends on the injected amount of SO2, the injection height, and the spatio-temporal pattern of injection. We find that the forcing efficiency may decrease more drastically for larger SO2 injections than previously estimated. As a result, the net instantaneous radiative forcing does not exceed the limit of -2 W m-2 for continuous equatorial SO2 injections and it decreases (in absolute value) for injection rates larger than 20 Tg S yr-1. In contrast to other studies, the net radiative forcing in our experiments is fairly constant with injection height (in a range 17 to 23 km) for a given amount of SO2 injected. Also, spreading the SO2 injections between 30° S and 30° N or injecting only seasonally from varying latitudes does not result in a significantly larger (i.e. more negative) radiative forcing. Other key characteristics of our simulations include a consequent stratospheric heating, caused by the absorption of solar and infrared radiation by the aerosol, and changes in stratospheric dynamics, with a collapse of the quasi-biennial oscillation at larger injection rates, which has impacts on the resulting spatial aerosol distribution, size, and optical properties. But it has to be noted that the complexity and uncertainty of stratospheric processes cause considerable disagreement among different modelling studies of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. This may be addressed through detailed

  11. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  12. ATMOS Stratospheric Deuterated Water and Implications for Tropospheric-Stratospheric Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Irion, Fredrick W.; Yung, Yuk L.; Gunson, Michael R.

    1996-01-01

    Measurements of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water by the ATMOS instrument are used to infer the convective history of stratospheric air. The average water vapor entering the stratosphere is found to be highly depleted of deuterium, with delta-D(sub w) of -670 +/- 80 (67% deuterium loss). Model calculations predict, however, that under conditions of thermodynamic equilibrium, dehydration to stratospheric mixing ratios should produce stronger depletion to delta-D(sub w) of -800 to 900 (80-90% deuterium loss). Deuterium enrichment of water vapor in ascending parcels can occur only in conditions of rapid convection; enrichments persisting into the stratosphere require that those conditions continue to near-tropopause altitudes. We conclude that either the predominant source of water vapor to the uppermost troposphere is enriched convective water, most likely evaporated cloud ice, or troposphere-stratosphere transport occurs closely associated with tropical deep convection.

  13. Trends and variability of midlatitude stratospheric water vapour deduced from the re-evaluated Boulder balloon series and HALOE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Scherer

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE. Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980–2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (≈14 to 25 km, the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3±0.3 and 0.7±0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between −0.2±0.3 and 1.0±0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from −1.1±0.2 to −0.1±0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here.

  14. Solar cycle variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature in simulations of a coupled chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Austin

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The results from three 45-year simulations of a coupled chemistry climate model are analysed for solar cycle influences on ozone and temperature. The simulations include UV forcing at the top of the atmosphere, which includes a generic 27-day solar rotation effect as well as the observed monthly values of the solar fluxes. The results are analysed for the 27-day and 11-year cycles in temperature and ozone. In accordance with previous results, the 27-day cycle results are in good qualitative agreement with observations, particularly for ozone. However, the results show significant variations, typically a factor of two or more in sensitivity to solar flux, depending on the solar cycle. In the lower and middle stratosphere we show good agreement also between the modelled and observed 11-year cycle results for the ozone vertical profile averaged over low latitudes. In particular, the minimum in solar response near 20 hPa is well simulated. In comparison, experiments of the model with fixed solar phase (solar maximum/solar mean and climatological sea surface temperatures lead to a poorer simulation of the solar response in the ozone vertical profile, indicating the need for variable phase simulations in solar sensitivity experiments. The role of sea surface temperatures and tropical upwelling in simulating the ozone minimum response are also discussed.

  15. Towards a Theory of Tropical/Midlatitude Mass Exchange from the Earth's Surface through the Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Dana

    1998-01-01

    The main findings of this research project have been the following: (1) there is a significant feedback from the stratosphere on tropospheric dynamics, and (2) a detailed analysis of the interaction between tropical and polar wave breaking in controlling stratospheric mixing. Two papers are were written and are included. The first paper is titled, "A New Perspective on the Dynamical Link Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere." Atmospheric processes of tropospheric origin can perturb the stratosphere, but direct feedback in the opposite direction is usually assumed to be negligible, despite the troposphere's sensitivity to changes in the release of wave activity into the stratosphere. Here, however, we present evidence that such a feedback exists and can be significant. We find that if the wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric vortex is distorted, either by waves propagating upward from the troposphere or by eastward-travelling stratospheric waves, then there is a concomitant redistribution of stratospheric potential vorticity that induces perturbations in key meteorological fields in the upper troposphere. The feedback is large despite the much greater mass of the troposphere: it can account for up to half of the geopotential height anomaly at the tropopause. Although the relative strength of the feedback is partly due to a cancellation between contributions to these anomalies from lower altitudes, our results imply that stratospheric dynamics and its feedback on the troposphere are more significant for climate modelling and data assimilation than was previously assumed. The second article is titled "Diagnosing the Polar Excitation of Subtropical Waves in the Stratosphere". The poleward migration of planetary scale tongues of subtropical air has often been associated with intense polar vortex disturbances in the stratosphere. This question of vortex influence is reexamined from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. Anomalous geopotential height and wind fields

  16. Evaluation models and evaluation use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contandriopoulos, Damien; Brousselle, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    The use of evaluation results is at the core of evaluation theory and practice. Major debates in the field have emphasized the importance of both the evaluator’s role and the evaluation process itself in fostering evaluation use. A recent systematic review of interventions aimed at influencing policy-making or organizational behavior through knowledge exchange offers a new perspective on evaluation use. We propose here a framework for better understanding the embedded relations between evaluation context, choice of an evaluation model and use of results. The article argues that the evaluation context presents conditions that affect both the appropriateness of the evaluation model implemented and the use of results. PMID:23526460

  17. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  18. Global 3-D modeling of atmospheric ozone in the free troposphere and the stratosphere with emphasis on midlatitude regions. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brasseur, G.; Tie, X.; Walters, S.

    1999-03-01

    The authors have used several global chemical/transport models (1) to study the contribution of various physical, chemical, and dynamical processes to the budget of mid-latitude ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere; (2) to analyze the potential mechanisms which are responsible for the observed ozone perturbations at mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere and in the upper troposphere; (3) to calculate potential changes in atmospheric ozone response to anthropogenic changes (e.g., emission of industrially manufactured CFCs, CO, and NO{sub x}) and to natural perturbations (e.g., volcanic eruptions and biomass burning); and (4) to estimate the impact of these changes on the radiative forcing to the climate system and on the level of UV-B radiation at the surface.

  19. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robock, Alan [Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States)

    2015-03-30

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.

  20. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robock, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming

  1. Reduction of photosynthetically active radiation under extreme stratospheric aerosol loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.; Zardecki, A.

    1981-08-01

    The recently published hypothesis that the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions might be caused by an obstruction of sunlight is tested by model calculations. First we compute the total mass of stratospheric aerosols under normal atmospheric conditions for four different (measured) aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles. For comparison, the stratospheric dust masses after four volcanic eruptions are also evaluated. Detailed solar radiative transfer calculations are then performed for artificially increased aerosol amounts until the postulated darkness scenario is obtained. Thus we find that a total stratospheric aerosol mass between 1 and 4 times 10 1 g is sufficient to reduce photosynthesis to 10 -3 of normal. We also infer from this result tha the impact of a 0.4- to 3-km-diameter asteroid or a close encounter with a Halley-size comet may deposit that amount of particulates into the stratosphere. The darkness scenario of Alvarez et al. is thus shown to be a possible extinction mechanism, even with smaller size asteroids of comets than previously estimated

  2. A Comparison of the Lower Stratospheric Age-Spectra Derived from a General Circulation Model and Two Data Assimilation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Zhu, Zhengxin; Pawson, Steven

    2002-01-01

    We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the DAS diabatic trajectory calculations there is too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum is thus too broad and the tropical mean age is too old as a result of mixing older mid latitude air with tropical air. Likewise the mid latitude mean age is too young due to the in mixing of tropical air. The DAS kinematic trajectory calculations show excessive vertical dispersion of parcels in addition to excessive exchange between the tropics and mid latitudes. Because air is moved rapidly to the troposphere from the vertical dispersion, the age spectrum is shifted toward the young side. The excessive vertical and meridional dispersion compensate in the kinematic case giving a reasonable tropical mean age. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same vertical and meridional dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the extra tropical mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM s are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra . show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles. These anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. The anomalies are

  3. Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.

    2017-12-01

    The strength of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in a changing climate has been extensively studied, but the relative importance of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving the BDC changes remains uncertain. This study separates the impacts of GHG and stratospheric ozone forcings on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM). The experiment compares a set of controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the GEOS CCM, in which either GHGs, or stratospheric ozone, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and stratospheric ozone have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease. It is also found that GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: 1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup, that inhibits young mid-latitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex; and 2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling, that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

  4. A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS: linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hossaini

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom. Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3 and dibromomethane (CH2Br2, over a 20-year period (1993–2012. Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model–measurement correlation (r  ≥  0.7 at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11 achieve best agreement to

  5. Trajectory tracking control for underactuated stratospheric airship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zewei; Huo, Wei; Wu, Zhe

    2012-10-01

    Stratospheric airship is a new kind of aerospace system which has attracted worldwide developing interests for its broad application prospects. Based on the trajectory linearization control (TLC) theory, a novel trajectory tracking control method for an underactuated stratospheric airship is presented in this paper. Firstly, the TLC theory is described sketchily, and the dynamic model of the stratospheric airship is introduced with kinematics and dynamics equations. Then, the trajectory tracking control strategy is deduced in detail. The designed control system possesses a cascaded structure which consists of desired attitude calculation, position control loop and attitude control loop. Two sub-loops are designed for the position and attitude control loops, respectively, including the kinematics control loop and dynamics control loop. Stability analysis shows that the controlled closed-loop system is exponentially stable. Finally, simulation results for the stratospheric airship to track typical trajectories are illustrated to verify effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  6. Solar variations and their influence on trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.; Lean, J.L.

    1990-10-01

    Over the past decade, knowledge of the magnitude and temporal structure of the variations in the sun's ultraviolet irradiance has increased steadily. A number of theoretical modeling studies have shown that changes in the solar ultraviolet flux during the 11-year solar cycle can have a significant effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations. With the exception of Brasseur et al., who examined a very broad range of solar flux variations, all of these studies assumed much larger changes in the ultraviolet flux than measurements now indicate. These studies either calculated the steady-state effect at solar maximum and solar minimum or assumed sinusoidal variations in the solar flux changes with time. It is now possible to narrow the uncertainty range of the expected effects on upper stratospheric ozone and temperature resulting from the 11-year solar cycle. A more accurate representation of the solar flux changes with time is used in this analysis, as compared to previous published studies. This study also evaluates the relative roles of solar flux variations and increasing concentrations of long-lived trace gases in determining the observed trends in upper stratospheric ozone and temperature. The LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the global atmosphere is used to evaluate the combined effects on the stratosphere from changes in solar ultraviolet irradiances and trace gas concentrations over the last several decades. Derived trends in upper stratospheric ozone concentrations and temperature are then compared with available analyses of ground-based and satellite measurements over this time period

  7. Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple Models (POEMs): co-ordinated experiments in the ISA-MIP model intercomparison activity component of the SPARC Stratospheric Sulphur and it's Role in Climate initiative (SSiRC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lindsay; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Toohey, Matthew; Aquila, Valentina

    2016-04-01

    The World Climate Research Program's SPARC initiative has a new international activity "Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC) to better understand changes in stratospheric aerosol and precursor gaseous sulphur species. One component of SSiRC involves an intercomparison "ISA-MIP" of composition-climate models that simulate the stratospheric aerosol layer interactively. Within PoEMS each modelling group will run a "perturbed physics ensemble" (PPE) of interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA) simulations of the Pinatubo eruption, varying several uncertain parameters associated with the eruption's SO2 emissions and model processes. A powerful new technique to quantify and attribute sources of uncertainty in complex global models is described by Lee et al. (2011, ACP). The analysis uses Gaussian emulation to derive a probability density function (pdf) of predicted quantities, essentially interpolating the PPE results in multi-dimensional parameter space. Once trained on the ensemble, a Monte Carlo simulation with the fast Gaussian emulator enabling a full variance-based sensitivity analysis. The approach has already been used effectively by Carslaw et al., (2013, Nature) to quantify the uncertainty in the cloud albedo effect forcing from a 3D global aerosol-microphysics model allowing to compare the sensitivy of different predicted quantities to uncertainties in natural and anthropogenic emissions types, and structural parameters in the models. Within ISA-MIP, each group will carry out a PPE of runs, with the subsequent analysis with the emulator assessing the uncertainty in the volcanic forcings predicted by each model. In this poster presentation we will give an outline of the "PoEMS" analysis, describing the uncertain parameters to be varied and the relevance to further understanding differences identified in previous international stratospheric aerosol assessments.

  8. On the Climate Impacts of Upper Tropospheric and Lower Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yan; Huang, Yi; Hu, Yongyun

    2018-01-01

    The global warming simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) are generally performed with different ozone prescriptions. We find that the differences in ozone distribution, especially in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric (UTLS) region, account for important model discrepancies shown in the ozone-only historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These discrepancies include global high cloud fraction, stratospheric temperature, and stratospheric water vapor. Through a set of experiments conducted by an atmospheric GCM with contrasting UTLS ozone prescriptions, we verify that UTLS ozone not only directly radiatively heats the UTLS region and cools the upper parts of the stratosphere but also strongly influences the high clouds due to its impact on relative humidity and static stability in the UTLS region and the stratospheric water vapor due to its impact on the tropical tropopause temperature. These consequences strongly affect the global mean effective radiative forcing of ozone, as noted in previous studies. Our findings suggest that special attention should be paid to the UTLS ozone when evaluating the climate effects of ozone depletion in the 20th century and recovery in the 21st century. UTLS ozone difference may also be important for understanding the intermodel discrepancy in the climate projections of the CMIP6 GCMs in which either prescribed or interactive ozone is used.

  9. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2004-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

  10. Homogeneous nucleation rates of nitric acid dihydrate (NAD at simulated stratospheric conditions – Part II: Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Möhler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Activation energies ΔGact for the nucleation of nitric acid dihydrate (NAD in supercooled binary HNO3/H2O solution droplets were calculated from volume-based nucleation rate measurements using the AIDA (Aerosol, Interactions, and Dynamics in the Atmosphere aerosol chamber of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The experimental conditions covered temperatures T between 192 and 197 K, NAD saturation ratios SNAD between 7 and 10, and nitric acid molar fractions of the nucleating sub-micron sized droplets between 0.26 and 0.28. Based on classical nucleation theory, a new parameterisation for ΔGact=A×(T ln SNAD−2+B is fitted to the experimental data with A=2.5×106 kcal K2 mol−1 and B=11.2−0.1(T−192 kcal mol−1. A and B were chosen to also achieve good agreement with literature data of ΔGact. The parameter A implies, for the temperature and composition range of our analysis, a mean interface tension σsl=51 cal mol−1 cm−2 between the growing NAD germ and the supercooled solution. A slight temperature dependence of the diffusion activation energy is represented by the parameter B. Investigations with a detailed microphysical process model showed that literature formulations of volume-based (Salcedo et al., 2001 and surface-based (Tabazadeh et al., 2002 nucleation rates significantly overestimate NAD formation rates when applied to the conditions of our experiments.

  11. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Newman, Paul A.; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith; Waugh, Darryn W.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2016-01-01

    Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

  12. Chlorine in the stratosphere

    OpenAIRE

    VON CLARMANN, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the various aspects of chlorine compounds in the stratosphere, both their roles as reactants and as tracers of dynamical processes. In the stratosphere, reactive chlorine is released from chlorofluorocarbons and other chlorine-containing organic source gases. To a large extent reactive chlorine is then sequestered in reservoir species ClONO2 and HCl. Re-activation of chlorine happens predominantly in polar winter vortices by heterogeneous reaction in combination with sunlig...

  13. An intercomparison of stratospheric gravity wave potential energy densities from METOP GPS radio occultation measurements and ECMWF model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Markus; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Kaifler, Bernd

    2018-02-01

    Temperature profiles based on radio occultation (RO) measurements with the operational European METOP satellites are used to derive monthly mean global distributions of stratospheric (20-40 km) gravity wave (GW) potential energy densities (EP) for the period July 2014-December 2016. In order to test whether the sampling and data quality of this data set is sufficient for scientific analysis, we investigate to what degree the METOP observations agree quantitatively with ECMWF operational analysis (IFS data) and reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. A systematic comparison between corresponding monthly mean temperature fields determined for a latitude-longitude-altitude grid of 5° by 10° by 1 km is carried out. This yields very low systematic differences between RO and model data below 30 km (i.e., median temperature differences is between -0.2 and +0.3 K), which increases with height to yield median differences of +1.0 K at 34 km and +2.2 K at 40 km. Comparing EP values for three selected locations at which also ground-based lidar measurements are available yields excellent agreement between RO and IFS data below 35 km. ERA-Interim underestimates EP under conditions of strong local mountain wave forcing over northern Scandinavia which is apparently not resolved by the model. Above 35 km, RO values are consistently much larger than model values, which is likely caused by the model sponge layer, which damps small-scale fluctuations above ˜ 32 km altitude. Another reason is the well-known significant increase of noise in RO measurements above 35 km. The comparison between RO and lidar data reveals very good qualitative agreement in terms of the seasonal variation of EP, but RO values are consistently smaller than lidar values by about a factor of 2. This discrepancy is likely caused by the very different sampling characteristics of RO and lidar observations. Direct comparison of the global data set of RO and model EP fields shows large correlation coefficients (0

  14. Investigation of the impact of extraterrestrial energetic particles on stratospheric nitrogen compounds and ozone on the basis of three dimensional model studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wieters, Nadine

    2013-06-17

    As a result of solar events like Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, highly energetic charged particles including protons and electrons can precipitate in the direction of the Earth. Having sufficient energies, these particles can penetrate down to the middle atmosphere and lead to a change in the chemical composition of the atmosphere. In particular during strong events, these charged particles induce an ionisation in the atmosphere that can reach down to the lower stratosphere. This ionisation is followed by a fast positive ion chemistry that causes a strong increase in reactive HO{sub x} (H,OH,HO{sub 2}) an NO{sub x} (N,NO,NO{sub 2}). HO{sub x} and NO{sub x} constituents eventually destroy O{sub 3} in catalytical reaction cycles. Furthermore, NO{sub x} is long-lived during polar winter and can be transported into the middle and lower stratosphere, where it can contribute to the O{sub 3} depletion. The increase in NO{sub x} in the upper and middle atmosphere due to solar events and the consequential depletion of O{sub 3} has been observed as during the Solar Proton Event (SPE) in October/November 2003 by satellite instruments. In atmospheric models, the generation of HO{sub x} and NO{sub x} can be well described by parametrisations to include in neutral models. Whereas other changes, for instance in chlorine compounds, can not be described sufficiently by this parametrisation. The purpose of this PhD thesis is, to investigate the impact of strong solar particle events on the abundance in NO{sub x} and O{sub 3} in the stratosphere and mesosphere on the basis of three-dimensional model studies. For this purpose a three-dimensional Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) has been extended to the upper atmosphere (lower thermosphere). To include the processes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere a new meteorological data set has been implemented to the model. To describe the ionising effect of energetic particle on the atmosphere, three

  15. Stratospheric impact on tropospheric ozone variability and trends: 1990–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. G. Hess

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of stratospheric ozone on the interannual variability and trends in tropospheric ozone is evaluated between 30 and 90° N from 1990–2009 using ozone measurements and a global chemical transport model, the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem. Long-term measurements from ozonesondes, at 150 and 500 hPa, and the Measurements of OZone and water vapour by in-service Airbus aircraft programme (MOZAIC, at 500 hPa, are analyzed over Japan, Canada, the Eastern US and Northern and Central Europe. The measurements generally emphasize northern latitudes, although the simulation suggests that measurements over the Canadian, Northern and Central European regions are representative of the large-scale interannual ozone variability from 30 to 90° N at 500 hPa. CAM-chem is run with input meteorology from the National Center for Environmental Prediction; a tagging methodology is used to identify the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone concentrations. A variant of the synthetic ozone tracer (synoz is used to represent stratospheric ozone. Both the model and measurements indicate that on large spatial scales stratospheric interannual ozone variability drives significant tropospheric variability at 500 hPa and the surface. In particular, the simulation and the measurements suggest large stratospheric influence at the surface sites of Mace Head (Ireland and Jungfraujoch (Switzerland as well as many 500 hPa measurement locations. Both the measurements and simulation suggest the stratosphere has contributed to tropospheric ozone trends. In many locations between 30–90° N 500 hPa ozone significantly increased from 1990–2000, but has leveled off since (from 2000–2009. The simulated global ozone budget suggests global stratosphere-troposphere exchange increased in 1998–1999 in association with a global ozone anomaly. Discrepancies between the simulated and measured ozone budget include a large underestimation of

  16. Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lili; Nowack, Peer J.; Tilmes, Simone; Robock, Alan

    2017-10-01

    A range of solar radiation management (SRM) techniques has been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Here, we examine the potential effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosols and solar insolation reduction on tropospheric ozone and ozone at Earth's surface. Ozone is a key air pollutant, which can produce respiratory diseases and crop damage. Using a version of the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research that includes comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, we model both stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction schemes, with the aim of achieving equal levels of surface cooling relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 scenario. This allows us to compare the impacts of sulfate aerosols and solar dimming on atmospheric ozone concentrations. Despite nearly identical global mean surface temperatures for the two SRM approaches, solar insolation reduction increases global average surface ozone concentrations, while sulfate injection decreases it. A fundamental difference between the two geoengineering schemes is the importance of heterogeneous reactions in the photochemical ozone balance with larger stratospheric sulfate abundance, resulting in increased ozone depletion in mid- and high latitudes. This reduces the net transport of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere and thus is a key driver of the overall decrease in surface ozone. At the same time, the change in stratospheric ozone alters the tropospheric photochemical environment due to enhanced ultraviolet radiation. A shared factor among both SRM scenarios is decreased chemical ozone loss due to reduced tropospheric humidity. Under insolation reduction, this is the dominant factor giving rise to the global surface ozone increase. Regionally, both surface ozone increases and decreases are found for both scenarios; that is, SRM would affect regions of the world differently in terms of air pollution. In conclusion

  17. Impacts of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering on tropospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Xia

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A range of solar radiation management (SRM techniques has been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Here, we examine the potential effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosols and solar insolation reduction on tropospheric ozone and ozone at Earth's surface. Ozone is a key air pollutant, which can produce respiratory diseases and crop damage. Using a version of the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research that includes comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, we model both stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction schemes, with the aim of achieving equal levels of surface cooling relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 scenario. This allows us to compare the impacts of sulfate aerosols and solar dimming on atmospheric ozone concentrations. Despite nearly identical global mean surface temperatures for the two SRM approaches, solar insolation reduction increases global average surface ozone concentrations, while sulfate injection decreases it. A fundamental difference between the two geoengineering schemes is the importance of heterogeneous reactions in the photochemical ozone balance with larger stratospheric sulfate abundance, resulting in increased ozone depletion in mid- and high latitudes. This reduces the net transport of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere and thus is a key driver of the overall decrease in surface ozone. At the same time, the change in stratospheric ozone alters the tropospheric photochemical environment due to enhanced ultraviolet radiation. A shared factor among both SRM scenarios is decreased chemical ozone loss due to reduced tropospheric humidity. Under insolation reduction, this is the dominant factor giving rise to the global surface ozone increase. Regionally, both surface ozone increases and decreases are found for both scenarios; that is, SRM would affect regions of the world differently in terms of air

  18. The IIR evaluation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borlund, Pia

    2003-01-01

    An alternative approach to evaluation of interactive information retrieval (IIR) systems, referred to as the IIR evaluation model, is proposed. The model provides a framework for the collection and analysis of IR interaction data. The aim of the model is two-fold: 1) to facilitate the evaluation ...

  19. An investigation of the processes controlling ozone in the upper stratosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patten, K.O. Jr.; Connell, P.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Waters, J.; Froidevaux, L.; Slanger, T.G.

    1992-01-01

    Photolysis of vibrationally excited oxygen produced by ultraviolet photolysis of ozone in the upper stratosphere is incorporated into the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2-D zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The importance of this potential contributor of odd oxygen to the concentration of ozone is evaluated based upon recent information on vibrational distributions of excited oxygen and upon preliminary studies of energy transfer from the excited oxygen. When the energy transfer rate constants of previous work are assumed, increases in model ozone concentrations of up to 40 percent in the upper stratosphere are found, and the ozone concentrations of the model agree with measurements, including data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. However, the increase is about 0.4 percent when the larger energy transfer rate constants suggested by more recent experimental work are applied in the model. This indicates the importance of obtaining detailed information on vibrationally excited oxygen properties, particularly the state-specific energy transfer rate constants, to evaluation of tills precess for stratospheric modeling

  20. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  1. Development of a climate record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from satellite remote sensing: evidence of an early recovery of global stratospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Ziemke

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud Slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and for studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-yr (1979–2010 long record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS and OMI. Analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO is the dominant source of inter-annual variability of stratospheric ozone and is clearest in the Southern Hemisphere during the Aura time record with related inter-annual changes of 30–40 Dobson Units. Tropospheric ozone for the long record also indicates a QBO signal in the tropics with peak-to-peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. The most important result from our study is that global stratospheric ozone indicates signature of a recovery occurring with ozone abundance now approaching the levels of year 1980 and earlier. The negative trends in stratospheric ozone in both hemispheres during the first 15 yr of the record are now positive over the last 15 yr and with nearly equal magnitudes. This turnaround in stratospheric ozone loss is occurring about 20 yr earlier than predicted by many chemistry climate models. This suggests that the Montreal Protocol which was first signed in 1987 as an international agreement to reduce ozone destroying substances is working well and perhaps better than anticipated.

  2. Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, Rudolf, F.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Stratospheric aerosols affect the atmospheric energy balance by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation. They also can alter stratospheric chemical cycles by catalyzing heterogeneous reactions which markedly perturb odd nitrogen, chlorine and ozone levels. Aerosol measurements by satellites began in NASA in 1975 with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) program, to be followed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) starting in 1979. Both programs employ the solar occultation, or Earth limb extinction, techniques. Major results of these activities include the discovery of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in both hemispheres in winter, illustrations of the impacts of major (El Chichon 1982 and Pinatubo 1991) eruptions, and detection of a negative global trend in lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric aerosol extinction. This latter result can be considered a triumph of successful worldwide sulfur emission controls. The SAGE record will be continued and improved by SAGE III, currently scheduled for multiple launches beginning in 2000 as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The satellite program has been supplemented by in situ measurements aboard the ER-2 (20 km ceiling) since 1974, and from the DC-8 (13 km ceiling) aircraft beginning in 1989. Collection by wire impactors and subsequent electron microscopic and X-ray energy-dispersive analyses, and optical particle spectrometry have been the principle techniques. Major findings are: (1) The stratospheric background aerosol consists of dilute sulfuric acid droplets of around 0.1 micrometer modal diameter at concentration of tens to hundreds of monograms per cubic meter; (2) Soot from aircraft amounts to a fraction of one percent of the background total aerosol; (3) Volcanic eruptions perturb the sulfuric acid, but not the soot, aerosol abundance by several orders of magnitude; (4) PSCs contain nitric acid at temperatures below 195K, supporting chemical hypotheses

  3. Influence of stratospheric aerosol on albedo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gormatyuk, Yu K; Kaufman, Yu G; Kolomeev, M P

    1985-06-01

    The influence of stratospheric aerosol (SA) on the transfer of solar radiation in the atmosphere is the principal factor determining the effect of SA on climate. The change in the radiation balance under the influence of SA is computed most precisely in radiative-convective models. However, the complex method used in these models cannot be used for other types of climate models. The objective of the study was to obtain a quantitative evaluation of the influence of SA on albedo without the use of simplifying assumptions. In the approximation of single scattering an expression is derived for change in albedo under the influence of stratospheric aerosol taking into account the dependence of albedo of the atmosphere-earth's surface system on solar zenith distance. The authors give the results of computations of the response of mean annual albedo to sulfuric acid aerosol for 10/sup 0/ latitude zones in the Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, computations of the optical characteristics of aerosol were made using the Mie theory for 10 spectral intervals taking in the range of wavelengths of solar radiation from 0.29 to 4.0 ..mu.. m. The refractive index of aerosol was stipulated in accordance with Palmer and Williams. The angular dependence of albedo for cloudless and cloudy atmospheres given by Harshvardhan was used. The values of undisturbed albedo were assumed to be identical for all wavelengths due to lack of climatological data on the spectral dependence of albedo of the atmosphere-earth's surface system. The angular distribution of the intensity of solar radiation for each of the latitude zones was computed by the method described by I.M. Alekseyev, et al.

  4. Diurnal variation of stratospheric and lower mesospheric HOCl, ClO and HO2 at the equator: comparison of 1-D model calculations with measurements by satellite instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Khosravi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The diurnal variation of HOCl and the related species ClO, HO2 and HCl measured by satellites has been compared with the results of a one-dimensional photochemical model. The study compares the data from various limb-viewing instruments with model simulations from the middle stratosphere to the lower mesosphere. Data from three sub-millimetre instruments and two infrared spectrometers are used, namely from the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR on board Odin, the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on board Aura, the Superconducting Submillimeter-wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES on the International Space Station, the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS on board ENVISAT, and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS on board SCISAT. Inter-comparison of the measurements from instruments on sun-synchronous satellites (SMR, MLS, MIPAS and measurements from solar occultation instruments (ACE-FTS is challenging since the measurements correspond to different solar zenith angles (or local times. However, using a model which covers all solar zenith angles and data from the SMILES instrument which measured at all local times over a period of several months provides the possibility to verify the model and to indirectly compare the diurnally variable species. The satellite data were averaged for latitudes of 20° S to 20° N for the SMILES observation period from November 2009 to April 2010 and were compared at three altitudes: 35, 45 and 55 km. Besides presenting the SMILES data, the study also shows a first comparison of the latest MLS data (version 3.3 of HOCl, ClO, and HO2 with other satellite observations, as well as a first evaluation of HO2 observations made by Odin/SMR. The MISU-1D model has been carefully initialised and run for conditions and locations of the observations. The diurnal cycle features for the species investigated here are generally well reproduced by the model. The satellite

  5. Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, A. M.; Lin, M.; Cooper, O. R.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Levy, H.; Langford, A. O.; Johnson, B. J.; Oltmans, S. J.; Senff, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    As the National Ambient Air Quality (NAAQS) standard for ozone (O_{3}) is lowered, it pushes closer to policy-relevant background levels (O_{3} concentrations that would exist in the absence of North American anthropogenic emissions), making attainment more difficult with local controls. We quantify the Asian and stratospheric components of this North American background, with a primary focus on the western United States. Prior work has identified this region as a hotspot for deep stratospheric intrusions in spring. We conduct global simulations at 200 km and 50 km horizontal resolution with the GFDL AM3 model, including a stratospheric O_{3} tracer and two sensitivity simulations with anthropogenic emissions from Asia and North America turned off. The model is evaluated with a suite of in situ and satellite measurements during the NOAA CalNex campaign (May-June 2010). The model reproduces the principle features in the observed surface to near tropopause distribution of O_{3} along the California coast, including its latitudinal variation and the development of regional high-O_{3} episodes. Four deep tropopause folds are diagnosed and we find that the remnants of these stratospheric intrusions are transported to the surface of Southern California and Western U.S. Rocky Mountains, contributing 10-30 ppbv positive anomalies relative to the simulated campaign mean stratospheric component in the model surface layer. We further examine the contribution of North American background, including its stratospheric and Asian components, to the entire distribution of observed MDA8 O_{3} at 12 high-elevation CASTNet sites in the Mountain West. We find that the stratospheric O_{3} tracer constitutes 50% of the North American background, and can enhance surface maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O_{3} by 20 ppb when observed surface O_{3} is in the range of 60-80 ppbv. Our analysis highlights the potential for natural sources such as deep stratospheric intrusions to contribute

  6. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  7. New stratospheric UV/visible radiance measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Marceau

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available A stratospheric balloon was launched on 12 October 1986 from the "CNES" base at Aire sur l'Adour (France to record twilight radiance in the stratosphere. The near-UV and visible radiances were continuously monitored by a photometer during sunrise. Some observations are presented for different viewing azimuthal planes and viewing elevation angles. They show the influence of aerosols layers and clouds which can be also seen on related photographs. The results as a whole may be used for testing some radiative models, especially for twilight conditions.

  8. Equatorial waves in the stratosphere of Uranus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinson, David P.; Magalhaes, Julio A.

    1991-01-01

    Analyses of radio occultation data from Voyager 2 have led to the discovery and characterization of an equatorial wave in the Uranus stratosphere. The observed quasi-periodic vertical atmospheric density variations are in close agreement with theoretical predictions for a wave that propagates vertically through the observed background structure of the stratosphere. Quantitative comparisons between measurements obtained at immersion and at emersion yielded constraints on the meridional and zonal structure of the wave; the fact that the two sets of measurements are correlated suggests a wave of planetary scale. Two equatorial wave models are proposed for the wave.

  9. The EMEFS model evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barchet, W.R.; Dennis, R.L.; Seilkop, S.K.; Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K.; Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.; Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A.; Fung, C.; Misra, P.K.; Hansen, D.A.; Chang, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs

  10. The EMEFS model evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Dennis, R.L. (Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)); Seilkop, S.K. (Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States)); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. (Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada)); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Sean M.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Dragani, Rossana; Harada, Yayoi; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Long, Craig; Manney, Gloria L.; Nash, Eric R.; Potter, Gerald L.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Wang, Tao; Wargan, Krzysztof; Wright, Jonathon S.

    2017-10-01

    Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that

  12. Simultaneous lidar observations of a polar stratospheric cloud on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains and microphysical box model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Blum

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The importance of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC for polar ozone depletion is well established. Lidar experiments are well suited to observe and classify polar stratospheric clouds. On 5 January 2005 a PSC was observed simultaneously on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains by ground-based lidars. This cloud was composed of liquid particles with a mixture of solid particles in the upper part of the cloud. Multi-colour measurements revealed that the liquid particles had a mode radius of r≈300 nm, a distribution width of σ≈1.04 and an altitude dependent number density of N≈2–20 cm−3. Simulations with a microphysical box model show that the cloud had formed about 20 h before observation. High HNO3 concentrations in the PSC of 40–50 weight percent were simulated in the altitude regions where the liquid particles were observed, while this concentration was reduced to about 10 weight percent in that part of the cloud where a mixture between solid and liquid particles was observed by the lidar. The model simulations also revealed a very narrow particle size distribution with values similar to the lidar observations. Below and above the cloud almost no HNO3 uptake was simulated. Although the PSC shows distinct wave signatures, no gravity wave activity was observed in the temperature profiles measured by the lidars and meteorological analyses support this observation. The observed cloud must have formed in a wave field above Iceland about 20 h prior to the measurements and the cloud wave pattern was advected by the background wind to Scandinavia. In this wave field above Iceland temperatures potentially dropped below the ice formation temperature, so that ice clouds may have formed which can act as condensation nuclei for the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT particles observed at the cloud top above Esrange.

  13. Simultaneous lidar observations of a polar stratospheric cloud on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains and microphysical box model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Blum

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The importance of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC for polar ozone depletion is well established. Lidar experiments are well suited to observe and classify polar stratospheric clouds. On 5 January 2005 a PSC was observed simultaneously on the east and west sides of the Scandinavian mountains by ground-based lidars. This cloud was composed of liquid particles with a mixture of solid particles in the upper part of the cloud. Multi-colour measurements revealed that the liquid particles had a mode radius of r≈300 nm, a distribution width of σ≈1.04 and an altitude dependent number density of N≈2–20 cm−3. Simulations with a microphysical box model show that the cloud had formed about 20 h before observation. High HNO3 concentrations in the PSC of 40–50 weight percent were simulated in the altitude regions where the liquid particles were observed, while this concentration was reduced to about 10 weight percent in that part of the cloud where a mixture between solid and liquid particles was observed by the lidar. The model simulations also revealed a very narrow particle size distribution with values similar to the lidar observations. Below and above the cloud almost no HNO3 uptake was simulated. Although the PSC shows distinct wave signatures, no gravity wave activity was observed in the temperature profiles measured by the lidars and meteorological analyses support this observation. The observed cloud must have formed in a wave field above Iceland about 20 h prior to the measurements and the cloud wave pattern was advected by the background wind to Scandinavia. In this wave field above Iceland temperatures potentially dropped below the ice formation temperature, so that ice clouds may have formed which can act as condensation nuclei for the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT particles observed at the cloud top above Esrange.

  14. Geoengineering by stratospheric SO2 injection: results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Kravitz

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine the response of the Met Office Hadley Centre's HadGEM2-AO climate model to simulated geoengineering by continuous injection of SO2 into the lower stratosphere, and compare the results with those from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Despite the differences between the models, we find a broadly similar geographic distribution of the response to geoengineering in both models in terms of near-surface air temperature and mean June–August precipitation. The simulations also suggest that significant changes in regional climate would be experienced even if geoengineering was successful in maintaining global-mean temperature near current values, and both models indicate rapid warming if geoengineering is not sustained.

  15. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  16. Integrating chemistry into 3D climate models: Detailed kinetics in the troposphere and stratosphere of a global climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, C.Y.J.; Elliott, S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Earth and Environmental Sciences Div.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    1997-11-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The motivation for the project is to create the first complete, three-dimensional climate model that enfolds atmospheric photochemistry. The LANL chemical global climate model (GCM) not only distributes the trace greenhouse gases and modifies their concentrations within the detailed photochemical web, but also permits them to influence the radiation field and so force their own transport. Both atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics are nonlinear and zonally asymmetric phenomena. They can only be adequately modeled in three dimensions on the global grid. The kinetics-augmented GCM is the only program within the atmospheric community capable of investigating interaction involving chemistry and transport. The authors have conducted case studies of timely three-dimensional chemistry issues. Examples include ozone production from biomass burning plumes, kinetic feedbacks in zonally asymmetric transport phenomena with month- to year-long time scales, and volcano sulfate aerosols with respect to their potential effects on tropospheric ozone depletion.

  17. Transport of Ice into the Stratosphere and the Humidification of the Stratosphere over the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessler, A. E.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Butler, A. H.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Davis, S. M.; Portmann, R. W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by approx. 1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

  18. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering

    KAUST Repository

    Robock, Alan

    2009-10-02

    Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers, and costs to those of other responses to global warming, including doing nothing. Here we evaluate those factors for stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols. Using existing U.S. military fighter and tanker planes, the annual costs of injecting aerosol precursors into the lower stratosphere would be several billion dollars. Using artillery or balloons to loft the gas would be much more expensive. We do not have enough information to evaluate more exotic techniques, such as pumping the gas up through a hose attached to a tower or balloon system. Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection would cool the planet, stop the melting of sea ice and land-based glaciers, slow sea level rise, and increase the terrestrial carbon sink, but produce regional drought, ozone depletion, less sunlight for solar power, and make skies less blue. Furthermore it would hamper Earth-based optical astronomy, do nothing to stop ocean acidification, and present many ethical and moral issues. Further work is needed to quantify many of these factors to allow informed decision-making.

  19. Introducing Program Evaluation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca GÂRBOAN

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs and project evaluation models can be extremely useful in project planning and management. The aim is to set the right questions as soon as possible in order to see in time and deal with the unwanted program effects, as well as to encourage the positive elements of the project impact. In short, different evaluation models are used in order to minimize losses and maximize the benefits of the interventions upon small or large social groups. This article introduces some of the most recently used evaluation models.

  20. A Global Climatology of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Derived from Aura OMI and MLS Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J.R.; Chandra, S.; Labow, G.; Bhartia, P. K.; Froidevaux, L.; Witte, J. C.

    2011-01-01

    A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone is derived by combining six years of Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone measurements for the period October 2004 through December 2010. The OMI/MLS tropospheric ozone climatology exhibits large temporal and spatial variability which includes ozone accumulation zones in the tropical south Atlantic year-round and in the subtropical Mediterranean! Asia region in summer months. High levels of tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere also persist in mid-latitudes over the eastern North American and Asian continents extending eastward over the Pacific Ocean. For stratospheric ozone climatology from MLS, largest ozone abundance lies in the northern hemisphere in the latitude range 70degN-80degN in February-April and in the southern hemisphere around 40degS-50degS during months August-October. The largest stratospheric ozone abundances in the northern hemisphere lie over North America and eastern Asia extending eastward across the Pacific Ocean and in the southern hemisphere south of Australia extending eastward across the dateline. With the advent of many newly developing 3D chemistry and transport models it is advantageous to have such a dataset for evaluating the performance of the models in relation to dynamical and photochemical processes controlling the ozone distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere.

  1. Impact of a simple parameterization of convective gravity-wave drag in a stratosphere-troposphere general circulation model and its sensitivity to vertical resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bossuet

    Full Text Available Systematic westerly biases in the southern hemisphere wintertime flow and easterly equatorial biases are experienced in the Météo-France climate model. These biases are found to be much reduced when a simple parameterization is introduced to take into account the vertical momentum transfer through the gravity waves excited by deep convection. These waves are quasi-stationary in the frame of reference moving with convection and they propagate vertically to higher levels in the atmosphere, where they may exert a significant deceleration of the mean flow at levels where dissipation occurs. Sixty-day experiments have been performed from a multiyear simulation with the standard 31 levels for a summer and a winter month, and with a T42 horizontal resolution. The impact of this parameterization on the integration of the model is found to be generally positive, with a significant deceleration in the westerly stratospheric jet and with a reduction of the easterly equatorial bias. The sensitivity of the Météo-France climate model to vertical resolution is also investigated by increasing the number of vertical levels, without moving the top of the model. The vertical resolution is increased up to 41 levels, using two kinds of level distribution. For the first, the increase in vertical resolution concerns especially the troposphere (with 22 levels in the troposphere, and the second treats the whole atmosphere in a homogeneous way (with 15 levels in the troposphere; the standard version of 31 levels has 10 levels in the troposphere. A comparison is made between the dynamical aspects of the simulations. The zonal wind and precipitation are presented and compared for each resolution. A positive impact is found with the finer tropospheric resolution on the precipitation in the mid-latitudes and on the westerly stratospheric jet, but the general impact on the model climate is weak, the physical parameterizations used appear to be mostly independent to the

  2. In-situ BrO measurements in the upper troposphere / lower stratosphere. Validation of the ENVISAT satellite measurements and photochemical model studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hrechanyy, S.

    2007-04-15

    Inorganic bromine species form the second most important halogen family affecting stratospheric ozone (WMO, 2003). Although the stratospheric bromine mixing ratio is about two orders of magnitude lower than the chlorine one, bromine has much higher ozone depleting potential (factor of about 45) compared to chlorine. This study reports and discusses atmospheric bromine monoxide, BrO, measurements in the altitude range 15-30 km performed by the balloon-borne instrument TRIPLE and aircraft instrument HALOX employing the chemical conversion resonance fluorescence technique, which is the only proven in-situ technique for the measurements of BrO. 57 HALOX flights have been performed in the frame of five field campaigns ranging from the Arctic to tropics. Three TRIPLE flights were carried out at high and mid latitudes in the frame of the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) validation. Calibration, consistency checks, data analysis, and error assessment for the in-situ measurements are described. The balloon measurements have yielded vertical profiles of BrO between 15 and 30 km altitude at northern mid- and at arctic latitudes. From the aircraft measurements a meridional BrO distribution from tropical to the arctic latitudes between 15 and 20 km altitude was obtained. In order to check the reliability of the bromine chemistry in the CLaMS model the BrO profile measured by TRIPLE on June 9, 2003 in Arctic spring/summer conditions was compared to a simulated BrO profile. For the simulation the model was initialized with appropriate satellite and balloon measurements and with a total stratospheric bromine of 18.4 pptv. Very good agreement between the TRIPLE measurements and model results was found. Measurements of BrO in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are well suited to investigate the contribution of very short-lived bromine species (VSLS) to the inorganic bromine, Bry. Since tropical HALOX BrO measurements from TROCCINOX

  3. Data modeling and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauge, E.; Hilaire, S.

    2006-01-01

    This lecture is devoted to the nuclear data evaluation process, during which the current knowledge (experimental or theoretical) of nuclear reactions is condensed and synthesised into a computer file (the evaluated data file) that application codes can process and use for simulation calculations. After an overview of the content of evaluated nuclear data files, we describe the different methods used for evaluating nuclear data. We specifically focus on the model based approach which we use to evaluate data in the continuum region. A few examples, coming from the day to day practice of data evaluation will illustrate this lecture. Finally, we will discuss the most likely perspectives for improvement of the evaluation process in the next decade. (author)

  4. Quantifying pollution transport from the Asian monsoon anticyclone into the lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Ploeger

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Pollution transport from the surface to the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon circulation may cause harmful effects on stratospheric chemistry and climate. Here, we investigate air mass transport from the monsoon anticyclone into the stratosphere using a Lagrangian chemistry transport model. We show how two main transport pathways from the anticyclone emerge: (i into the tropical stratosphere (tropical pipe, and (ii into the Northern Hemisphere (NH extratropical lower stratosphere. Maximum anticyclone air mass fractions reach around 5 % in the tropical pipe and 15 % in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere over the course of a year. The anticyclone air mass fraction correlates well with satellite hydrogen cyanide (HCN and carbon monoxide (CO observations, confirming that pollution is transported deep into the tropical stratosphere from the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Cross-tropopause transport occurs in a vertical chimney, but with the pollutants transported quasi-horizontally along isentropes above the tropopause into the tropics and NH.

  5. Stratospheric BrONO2 observed by MIPAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fischer

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The first measurements of stratospheric bromine nitrate (BrONO2 are reported. Bromine nitrate has been clearly identified in atmospheric infrared emission spectra recorded with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS aboard the European Envisat satellite, and stratospheric concentration profiles have been determined for different conditions (day and night, different latitudes. The BrONO2 concentrations show strong day/night variations, with much lower concentrations during the day. Maximum volume mixing ratios observed during night are 20 to 25 pptv. The observed concentration profiles are in agreement with estimations from photochemical models and show that the current understanding of stratospheric bromine chemistry is generally correct.

  6. Triton - Stratospheric molecules and organic sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, W. Reid; Singh, Sushil K.; Khare, B. N.; Sagan, Carl

    1989-01-01

    Continuous-flow plasma discharge techniques show production rates of hydrocarbons and nitriles in N2 + CH4 atmospheres appropriate to the stratosphere of Titan, and indicate that a simple eddy diffusion model together with the observed electron flux quantitatively matches the Voyager IRIS observations for all the hydrocarbons, except for the simplest ones. Charged particle chemistry is very important in Triton's stratosphere. In the more CH4-rich case of Titan, many hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in high yield. If N2 is present, the CH4 fraction is low, but hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in fair yield, abundances of HCN and C2H2 in Triton's stratosphere exceed 10 to the 19th molecules/sq cm per sec, and NCCN, C3H4, and other species are predicted to be present. These molecules may be detected by IRIS if the stratosphere is as warm as expected. Both organic haze and condensed gases will provide a substantial UV and visible opacity in Triton's atmosphere.

  7. Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

    2004-01-01

    The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

  8. Spatial Heterodyne Observations of Water (SHOW) vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from a high altitude aircraft: Modelling and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langille, J. A.; Letros, D.; Zawada, D.; Bourassa, A.; Degenstein, D.; Solheim, B.

    2018-04-01

    A spatial heterodyne spectrometer (SHS) has been developed to measure the vertical distribution of water vapour in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere with a high vertical resolution (∼500 m). The Spatial Heterodyne Observations of Water (SHOW) instrument combines an imaging system with a monolithic field-widened SHS to observe limb scattered sunlight in a vibrational band of water (1363 nm-1366 nm). The instrument has been optimized for observations from NASA's ER-2 aircraft as a proof-of-concept for a future low earth orbit satellite deployment. A robust model has been developed to simulate SHOW ER-2 limb measurements and retrievals. This paper presents the simulation of the SHOW ER-2 limb measurements along a hypothetical flight track and examines the sensitivity of the measurement and retrieval approach. Water vapour fields from an Environment and Climate Change Canada forecast model are used to represent realistic spatial variability along the flight path. High spectral resolution limb scattered radiances are simulated using the SASKTRAN radiative transfer model. It is shown that the SHOW instrument onboard the ER-2 is capable of resolving the water vapour variability in the UTLS from approximately 12 km - 18 km with ±1 ppm accuracy. Vertical resolutions between 500 m and 1 km are feasible. The along track sampling capability of the instrument is also discussed.

  9. Reduction of photosynthetically active radiation under extreme stratospheric-aerosol loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.; Zardecki, A.

    1981-01-01

    The recently published hypothesis that the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions might be caused by an obstruction of sunlight is tested by model calculations. First we compute the total mass of stratospheric aerosols under normal atmospheric conditions for four different (measured) aerosol size distributions and vertical profiles. For comparison, the stratospheric dust masses after four volcanic eruptions are also evaluated. Detailed solar radiative transfer calculations are then performed for artificially increased aerosol amounts until the postulated darkness scenario is obtained. Thus we find that a total stratospheric aerosol mass between 1 and 4 times 10 16 g is sufficient to reduce photosynthesis to 10 3 of normal. We also infer from this result that the impact of a 0.4- to 3-km-diameter asteroid or a close encounter with a Halley-size comet may deposit that amount of particulates into the stratosphere. The darkness scenario of Alvarez et al., is thus shown to be a possible extinction mechanism, even with smaller size asteroids or comets than previously estimated

  10. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  11. A stratospheric aerosol increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, J. M.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    Large disturbances were noted in the stratospheric aerosol content in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere commencing about 7 months after the eruption of La Soufriere and less than 1 month after the eruption of Sierra Negra. The aerosol was characterized by a very steep size distribution in the 0.15 to 0.25 micron radius range and contained a volatile component. Measurements near the equator and at the South Pole indicate that the disturbance was widespread. These observations were made before the May 18 eruption of Mt. St. Helens.

  12. Training effectiveness evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    NAESCO's Training Effectiveness Evaluation Model (TEEM) integrates existing evaluation procedures with new procedures. The new procedures are designed to measure training impact on organizational productivity. TEEM seeks to enhance organizational productivity through proactive training focused on operation results. These results can be identified and measured by establishing and tracking performance indicators. Relating training to organizational productivity is not easy. TEEM is a team process. It offers strategies to assess more effectively organizational costs and benefits of training. TEEM is one organization's attempt to refine, manage and extend its training evaluation program

  13. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Steiner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO, which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  14. First airborne water vapor lidar measurements in the tropical upper troposphere and mid-latitudes lower stratosphere: accuracy evaluation and intercomparisons with other instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schiller

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In the tropics, deep convection is the major source of uncertainty in water vapor transport to the upper troposphere and into the stratosphere. Although accurate measurements in this region would be of first order importance to better understand the processes that govern stratospheric water vapor concentrations and trends in the context of a changing climate, they are sparse because of instrumental shortcomings and observational challenges. Therefore, the Falcon research aircraft of the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR flew a zenith-viewing water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL during the Tropical Convection, Cirrus and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment (TROCCINOX in 2004 and 2005 in Brazil. The measurements were performed alternatively on three water vapor absorption lines of different strength around 940 nm. These are the first aircraft DIAL measurements in the tropical upper troposphere and in the mid-latitudes lower stratosphere. Sensitivity analyses reveal an accuracy of 5% between altitudes of 8 and 16 km. This is confirmed by intercomparisons with the Fast In-situ Stratospheric Hygrometer (FISH and the Fluorescent Advanced Stratospheric Hygrometer (FLASH onboard the Russian M-55 Geophysica research aircraft during five coordinated flights. The average relative differences between FISH and DIAL amount to −3%±8% and between FLASH and DIAL to −8%±14%, negative meaning DIAL is more humid. The average distance between the probed air masses was 129 km. The DIAL is found to have no altitude- or latitude-dependent bias. A comparison with the balloon ascent of a laser absorption spectrometer gives an average difference of 0%±19% at a distance of 75 km. Six tropical DIAL under-flights of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS on board ENVISAT reveal a mean difference of −8%±49% at an average distance of 315 km. While the comparison with MIPAS is somewhat less significant due to poorer

  15. Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

  16. Dynamics and chemistry of vortex remnants in late Arctic spring 1997 and 2000: Simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Konopka

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution simulations of the chemical composition of the Arctic stratosphere during late spring 1997 and 2000 were performed with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS. The simulations were performed for the entire northern hemisphere on two isentropic levels 450 K (~18 km and 585 K (~24 km. The spatial distribution and the lifetime of the vortex remnants formed after the vortex breakup in May 1997 display different behavior above and below 20 km. Above 20 km, vortex remnants propagate southward (up to 40°N and are "frozen in'' in the summer circulation without significant mixing. Below 20 km the southward propagation of the remnants is bounded by the subtropical jet. Their lifetime is shorter by a factor of 2 than that above 20 km, owing to significant stirring below this altitude. The behavior of vortex remnants formed in March 2000 is similar but, due to an earlier vortex breakup, dominated during the first 6 weeks after the vortex breakup by westerly winds, even above 20 km. Vortex remnants formed in May 1997 are characterized by large mixing ratios of HCl indicating negligible, halogen-induced ozone loss. In contrast, mid-latitude ozone loss in late boreal spring 2000 is dominated, until mid-April, by halogen-induced ozone destruction within the vortex remnants, and subsequent transport of the ozone-depleted polar air masses (dilution into the mid-latitudes. By varying the intensity of mixing in CLaMS, the impact of mixing on the formation of ClONO2 and ozone depletion is investigated. We find that the photochemical decomposition of HNO3 and not mixing with NOx-rich mid-latitude air is the main source of NOx within the vortex remnants in March and April 2000. Ozone depletion in the remnants is driven by ClOx photolytically formed from ClONO2. At the end of May 1997, the halogen-induced ozone deficit at 450 K poleward of 30°N amounts to ~12% with ~10% in the polar vortex and ~2% in well-isolated vortex remnants

  17. Developmental Education Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry-Miller, Mitzi; And Others

    A developmental education evaluation model designed to be used at a multi-unit urban community college is described. The purpose of the design was to determine the cost effectiveness/worth of programs in order to initiate self-improvement. A needs assessment was conducted by interviewing and taping the responses of students, faculty, staff, and…

  18. CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

  19. Evaluation of the ACCESS – chemistry–climate model for the Southern Hemisphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Stone

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Chemistry–climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth system. In particular, they are used to assess the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry–climate model (ACCESS-CCM, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October-averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 shows a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. Comparison with model precursors shows large improvements in the representation of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, especially in TCO concentrations. A significant innovation is seen in the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (greater than 26 % at Davis and the South Pole during winter and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10 K at the South Pole during summer and autumn outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centred around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes

  20. Study of the fallout of artificial iron-55. Application to the evaluation of the fallout of natural iron of stratospheric origin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoang Chi Trach

    1969-01-01

    The object of this work is to study the iron-55 fallout to establish the world balance of this radioelement. The utilisation of this tracer enables the calculation of the input of natural iron of stratospheric origin to the Earth and the input through the atmosphere of natural iron to the oceans. We have shown that: iron-55 is essentially produced in nuclear explosions according to the 56 Fe(n,2n) 55 Fe reaction; the iron-55 fallout obeys a 'stratospheric pattern' with a decay period between 9 and 11 months; by surface unit and at the same latitude, this fallout is 3.5 times more important on the Eastern part of the Northern Atlantic than over France. By comparison with the strontium-90 fallout, we established the world balance of the iron-55 fallout in the 1962-1965 period. This balance amounts to approximately 50 mega-curies for the iron-55 introduced into the atmosphere; 25.3 mega-curies of which fall down on the Earth during this period. We estimated at 6 x 10 6 tons per year the input of natural iron of stratospheric origin to the Earth and at 1.2 x 10 7 tons per year the input through the atmosphere of natural iron to the oceans. This latter figure represents 13 to 38 per cent of the amount of iron incorporated annually in the pelagic sediments. (author) [fr

  1. Possible effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric minor constituent chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, R. S.; Butler, D. M.

    1979-01-01

    Although stratosphere penetrating volcanic eruptions have been infrequent during the last half century, periods have existed in the last several hundred years when such eruptions were significantly more frequent. Several mechanisms exist for these injections to affect stratospheric minor constituent chemistry, both on the long-term average and for short-term perturbations. These mechanisms are reviewed and, because of the sensitivity of current models of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations, quantitative estimates are made of chlorine injection rates. It is found that, if chlorine makes up as much as 0.5 to 1% of the gases released and if the total gases released are about the same magnitude as the fine ash, then a major stratosphere penetrating eruption could deplete the ozone column by several percent. The estimate for the Agung eruption of 1963 is just under 1% an amount not excluded by the ozone record but complicated by the peak in atmospheric nuclear explosions at about the same time.

  2. The coupled chemistry-climate model LMDz-REPROBUS: description and evaluation of a transient simulation of the period 1980–1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jourdain

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a description and evaluation of the Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM LMDz-REPROBUS, which couples interactively the extended version of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique General Circulation Model (LMDz GCM and the stratospheric chemistry module of the REactive Processes Ruling the Ozone BUdget in the Stratosphere (REPROBUS model. The transient simulation evaluated here covers the period 1980–1999. The introduction of an interactive stratospheric chemistry module improves the model dynamical climatology, with a substantial reduction of the temperature biases in the lower tropical stratosphere. However, at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, a negative temperature bias, that is already present in the GCM version, albeit with a smaller magnitude, leads to an overestimation of the ozone depletion and its vertical extent in the CCM. This in turn contributes to maintain low polar temperatures in the vortex, delay the break-up of the vortex and the recovery of polar ozone. The latitudinal and vertical variation of the mean age of air compares favourable with estimates derived from long-lived species measurements, though the model mean age of air is 1–3 years too young in the middle stratosphere. The model also reproduces the observed "tape recorder" in tropical total hydrogen (=H2O+2×CH4, but its propagation is about 30% too fast and its signal fades away slightly too quickly. The analysis of the global distributions of CH4 and N2O suggests that the subtropical transport barriers are correctly represented in the simulation. LMDz-REPROBUS also reproduces fairly well most of the spatial and seasonal variations of the stratospheric chemical species, in particular ozone. However, because of the Antarctic cold bias, large discrepancies are found for most species at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere during the spring and early summer. In the Northern Hemisphere, polar ozone depletion and its variability are underestimated

  3. Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven; Perlwitz, Judith

    2018-01-01

    The relative impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and stratospheric ozone depletion on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period are quantified using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-�Climate Model. The experiment compares controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-�ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-�Climate Model, in which either GHGs or ozone depleting substances, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and ozone-depleting substances have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease, but GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. It is also found that both the acceleration of the diabatic circulation and the decrease of the mean age difference between downwelling and upwelling regions are mainly caused by GHG forcing. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: (1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup that inhibits young midlatitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex, and (2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

  4. Pragmatic geometric model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamer, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Quantification of subsurface model reliability is mathematically and technically demanding as there are many different sources of uncertainty and some of the factors can be assessed merely in a subjective way. For many practical applications in industry or risk assessment (e. g. geothermal drilling) a quantitative estimation of possible geometric variations in depth unit is preferred over relative numbers because of cost calculations for different scenarios. The talk gives an overview of several factors that affect the geometry of structural subsurface models that are based upon typical geological survey organization (GSO) data like geological maps, borehole data and conceptually driven construction of subsurface elements (e. g. fault network). Within the context of the trans-European project "GeoMol" uncertainty analysis has to be very pragmatic also because of different data rights, data policies and modelling software between the project partners. In a case study a two-step evaluation methodology for geometric subsurface model uncertainty is being developed. In a first step several models of the same volume of interest have been calculated by omitting successively more and more input data types (seismic constraints, fault network, outcrop data). The positions of the various horizon surfaces are then compared. The procedure is equivalent to comparing data of various levels of detail and therefore structural complexity. This gives a measure of the structural significance of each data set in space and as a consequence areas of geometric complexity are identified. These areas are usually very data sensitive hence geometric variability in between individual data points in these areas is higher than in areas of low structural complexity. Instead of calculating a multitude of different models by varying some input data or parameters as it is done by Monte-Carlo-simulations, the aim of the second step of the evaluation procedure (which is part of the ongoing work) is to

  5. Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

    2013-07-01

    The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall

  6. Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2 to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050 H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change high-emitting scenario (A1FI and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1, as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two

  7. Issues in Stratospheric Ozone Depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Steven Andrew

    Following the announcement of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985 there have arisen a multitude of questions pertaining to the nature and consequences of polar ozone depletion. This thesis addresses several of these specific questions, using both computer models of chemical kinetics and the Earth's radiation field as well as laboratory kinetic experiments. A coupled chemical kinetic-radiative numerical model was developed to assist in the analysis of in situ field measurements of several radical and neutral species in the polar and mid-latitude lower stratosphere. Modeling was used in the analysis of enhanced polar ClO, mid-latitude diurnal variation of ClO, and simultaneous measurements of OH, HO_2, H_2 O and O_3. Most importantly, such modeling was instrumental in establishing the link between the observed ClO and BrO concentrations in the Antarctic polar vortex and the observed rate of ozone depletion. The principal medical concern of stratospheric ozone depletion is that ozone loss will lead to the enhancement of ground-level UV-B radiation. Global ozone climatology (40^circS to 50^ circN latitude) was incorporated into a radiation field model to calculate the biologically accumulated dosage (BAD) of UV-B radiation, integrated over days, months, and years. The slope of the annual BAD as a function of latitude was found to correspond to epidemiological data for non-melanoma skin cancers for 30^circ -50^circN. Various ozone loss scenarios were investigated. It was found that a small ozone loss in the tropics can provide as much additional biologically effective UV-B as a much larger ozone loss at higher latitudes. Also, for ozone depletions of > 5%, the BAD of UV-B increases exponentially with decreasing ozone levels. An important key player in determining whether polar ozone depletion can propagate into the populated mid-latitudes is chlorine nitrate, ClONO_2 . As yet this molecule is only indirectly accounted for in computer models and field

  8. The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

    2012-08-01

    The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is

  9. The global warming potential of methane reassessed with combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, C. D.; Archibald, A. T.; Eastham, S. D.; Søvde, O. A.

    2017-12-01

    Methane is a direct and indirect greenhouse gas. The direct greenhouse effect comes from the radiation absorbed and emitted by methane itself. The indirect greenhouse effect comes from radiatively active gases that are produced during methane oxidation: principally O3, H2O, and CO2. Methane also suppresses tropospheric OH, which indirectly affects numerous greenhouses gases and aerosols. Traditionally, the methane global warming potential (GWP) has included the indirect effects on tropospheric O3 and OH and stratospheric H2O, with these effects estimated independently from unrelated tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry models and observations. Using this approach the CH4 is about 28 over 100 yr (without carbon cycle feedbacks, IPCC, 2013). Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the CH4 GWP in several 3-D global atmospheric models capable of simulating both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem, Oslo CTM3, UKCA). This enables us to include, for the first time, the indirect effects of CH4 on stratospheric O3 and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. We diagnose the GWP from paired simulations with and without a 5% perturbation to tropospheric CH4 concentrations. Including stratospheric chemistry nearly doubles the O3 contribution to CH4 GWP because of O3 production in the lower stratosphere and because CH4 inhibits Cl-catalyzed O3 loss in the upper stratosphere. In addition, stratosphere-troposphere coupling strengthens the chemical feedback on its own lifetime. In the stratosphere, this feedback operates by a CH4 perturbation thickening the stratospheric O3 layer, which impedes UV-driven OH production in the troposphere and prolongs the CH4 lifetime. We also quantify the impact of CH4-derived H2O on the stratospheric HOx cycles but these effects are small. Combining all of the above, these models suggest that the 100-yr GWP of CH4 is over 33.5, a 20% increase over the latest IPCC assessment.

  10. Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

  11. Stratospheric mean ages and transport rates from observations of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boering, K A; Wofsy, S C; Daube, B C; Schneider, H R [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). Div. of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Loewenstein, M; Podolske, J R [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States); Conway, T J [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Measurements of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O concentrations are reported and analyzed to investigate stratospheric transport rates. Temporal variations in tropospheric CO{sub 2} are observed to propagate into the stratosphere, showing that tropospheric air enters the lower tropical stratosphere continuously, ascends, and is transported rapidly (in less than 1 month) to both hemispheres. The mean age of stratospheric air determined from CO{sub 2} data is approximately 5 years in the mid-stratosphere. It is shown that the mean age is mathematically equivalent to a conserved tracer analogous to exhaust from stratospheric aircraft. Comparison of the mean age from models and observations indicates that current model simulations likely underestimate pollutant concentrations from proposed stratospheric aircraft by 25-100%. (author) 36 refs.

  12. Stratospheric mean ages and transport rates from observations of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boering, K.A.; Wofsy, S.C.; Daube, B.C.; Schneider, H.R. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). Div. of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Loewenstein, M.; Podolske, J.R. [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States); Conway, T.J. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Measurements of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O concentrations are reported and analyzed to investigate stratospheric transport rates. Temporal variations in tropospheric CO{sub 2} are observed to propagate into the stratosphere, showing that tropospheric air enters the lower tropical stratosphere continuously, ascends, and is transported rapidly (in less than 1 month) to both hemispheres. The mean age of stratospheric air determined from CO{sub 2} data is approximately 5 years in the mid-stratosphere. It is shown that the mean age is mathematically equivalent to a conserved tracer analogous to exhaust from stratospheric aircraft. Comparison of the mean age from models and observations indicates that current model simulations likely underestimate pollutant concentrations from proposed stratospheric aircraft by 25-100%. (author) 36 refs.

  13. The 'surf zone' in the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, M. E.; Palmer, T. N.

    Synoptic, coarse-grain, isentropic maps of Ertel's potential vorticity Q for the northern middle stratosphere, estimated using a large-Richardson-number approximation, are presented for a number of days in January-February 1979, together with some related isentropic trajectory calculations The effects of substituting FGGE for NMC base data are noted, as well as some slight corrections to maps published earlier. The combined evidence from the observations and from dynamical models strongly indicates the existence of planetary-wave breaking, a process in which material contours are rapidly and irreversibly deformed. In the winter stratosphere this occurs most spectacularly in a gigantic 'nonlinear critical layer', or 'surf zone', which surrounds the main polar vortex, and which tends to erode the vortex when wave amplitudes become large. Some of the FGGE-based Q maps suggest that we may be seeing glimpses of local dynamical instabilities and vortex-rollup phenomena within breaking planetary waves. Related phenomena in the troposphere are discussed. An objective definition of the area A( t) of the main vortex, as it appears on isentropic Q maps, is proposed. A smoothed time series of daily values of A( t) should be a statistically powerful 'circulation index' for the state of the winter-time middle stratosphere, which avoids the loss of information incurred by Eulerian space and time averaging.

  14. Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunxiao Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS. The semi-annual oscillation (SAO in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be well captured by the model. The model simulations reveal that the CO surface emissions explain most of the SAO signals in the tropical UT, with the remainder being attributed to dynamical and chemical processes. The CO AO in the LS primarily results from combined effects of dynamical and chemical processes while the dynamical and chemical processes make opposite contributions to the CO AO signals, consistent with the previous findings. Our analysis further reveals that CO surface emissions tend to weaken the amplitude of the CO annual cycle in the tropical LS, while the annual variations in the meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson (BD circulation can amplify the annual variations of CO above 30 hPa. The model simulations also indicate that the CO annual cycle in the LS has a mixed behaviour with the annual variations of tropical upwelling reflected in CO between ~70 and ~50 hPa and a standard tape-recorder signal above 50 hPa. Moreover, the AO signals of CO exist up to 10 hPa when the chemical processes are switched off. The temporal and spatial variations of CO in the UT and near the tropopause are mainly driven by the upward transport of CO by tropical deep convection and the Asian summer monsoon circulation. In the early stage of the South Asian summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the South China in the late spring and early summer, the transport of the CO surface emissions over Southeast Asia by the South Asian summer monsoon leads to an increase in the tropical CO, but the horizontal transport from the extratropics into the tropics (termed in

  15. Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Löffler

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry–climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

  16. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Fadnavis, Suvarna

    2017-09-28

    Recent satellite observations show efficient vertical transport of Asian pollutants from the surface to the upper-level anticyclone by deep monsoon convection. In this paper, we examine the transport of carbonaceous aerosols, including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), into the monsoon anticyclone using of ECHAM6-HAM, a global aerosol climate model. Further, we investigate impacts of enhanced (doubled) carbonaceous aerosol emissions on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), underneath monsoon circulation and precipitation from sensitivity simulations. The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S–50° N, 65–155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6–1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400–200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02–0.03 K day−1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by −4.74 ± 1.42 W m−2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m−2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m−2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15–35° N, 80–110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1–4 mm day−1) and eastern China (0.2–2 mm day−1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  17. Photochemistry of materials in the stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, H.S. [Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, CA (United States)

    1993-12-01

    This research is concerned with global change in the atmosphere, including photochemical modeling and, in the past, experimental gas-phase photochemistry involving molecular dynamics and laboratory study of atmospheric chemical reactions. The experimental work on this project concluded in August 1991, but there is a back-log of several journal articles to be written and submitted for publication. The theoretical work involves photochemical modeling in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and advising the Upper Atmosphere Research Program on Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

  18. Condensed Acids In Antartic Stratospheric Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, R. F.; Snetsinger, K. G.; Toon, O. B.; Ferry, G. V.; Starr, W. L.; Oberbeck, V. R.; Chan, K. R.; Goodman, J. K.; Livingston, J. M.; Verma, S.; hide

    1992-01-01

    Report dicusses nitrate, sulfate, and chloride contents of stratospheric aerosols during 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Emphasizes growth of HNO3*3H2O particles in polar stratospheric clouds. Important in testing theories concerning Antarctic "ozone hole".

  19. Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelebogile Mathole

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a comparison of trends in lower stratospheric temperatures and summer zonal wind fields based on 27 years of reanalysis data and output from hindcast simulations using a coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation model (OAGCM. Lower stratospheric ozone in the OAGCM was relaxed to the observed climatology and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations were neglected. In the reanalysis, lower stratospheric ozone fields were better represented than in the OAGCM. The spring lower stratospheric/ upper tropospheric cooling in the polar cap observed in the reanalysis, which is caused by a direct ozone depletion in the past two decades and is in agreement with previous studies, did not appear in the OAGCM. The corresponding summer tropospheric response also differed between data sets. In the reanalysis, a statistically significant poleward trend of the summer jet position was found, whereas no such trend was found in the OAGCM. Furthermore, the jet position in the reanalysis exhibited larger interannual variability than that in the OAGCM. We conclude that these differences are caused by the absence of long-term lower stratospheric ozone changes in the OAGCM. Improper representation or non-inclusion of such ozone variability in a prediction model could adversely affect the accuracy of the predictability of summer rainfall forecasts over South Africa.

  20. Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anet, J. G.; Muthers, S.; Rozanov, E.; Raible, C. C.; Peter, T.; Stenke, A.; Shapiro, A. I.; Beer, J.; Steinhilber, F.; Brönnimann, S.; Arfeuille, F.; Brugnara, Y.; Schmutz, W.

    2013-11-01

    The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation

  1. Evaluation of model-simulated source contributions to tropospheric ozone with aircraft observations in the factor-projected space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Yoshida

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Trace gas measurements of TOPSE and TRACE-P experiments and corresponding global GEOS-Chem model simulations are analyzed with the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF method for model evaluation purposes. Specially, we evaluate the model simulated contributions to O3 variability from stratospheric transport, intercontinental transport, and production from urban/industry and biomass burning/biogenic sources. We select a suite of relatively long-lived tracers, including 7 chemicals (O3, NOy, PAN, CO, C3H8, CH3Cl, and 7Be and 1 dynamic tracer (potential temperature. The largest discrepancy is found in the stratospheric contribution to 7Be. The model underestimates this contribution by a factor of 2–3, corresponding well to a reduction of 7Be source by the same magnitude in the default setup of the standard GEOS-Chem model. In contrast, we find that the simulated O3 contributions from stratospheric transport are in reasonable agreement with those derived from the measurements. However, the springtime increasing trend over North America derived from the measurements are largely underestimated in the model, indicating that the magnitude of simulated stratospheric O3 source is reasonable but the temporal distribution needs improvement. The simulated O3 contributions from long-range transport and production from urban/industry and biomass burning/biogenic emissions are also in reasonable agreement with those derived from the measurements, although significant discrepancies are found for some regions.

  2. Evaluating topic models with stability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, A

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Topic models are unsupervised techniques that extract likely topics from text corpora, by creating probabilistic word-topic and topic-document associations. Evaluation of topic models is a challenge because (a) topic models are often employed...

  3. Stratospheric Platforms for Monitoring Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konigorski, D.; Gratzel, U.; Obersteiner, M.; Schneidereit, M.

    2010-01-01

    Stratospheric platforms are emerging systems based on challenging technology. Goal is to create a platform, payload, and mission design which is able to complement satellite services on a local scale. Applications are close to traditional satellite business in telecommunication, navigation, science, and earth observation and include for example mobile telecommunications, navigation augmentation, atmospheric research, or border control. Stratospheric platforms could potentially support monitoring activities related to safeguards, e.g. by imagery of surfaces, operational conditions of nuclear facilities, and search for undeclared nuclear activities. Stratospheric platforms are intended to be flown in an altitude band between 16 and 30 km, above 16-20 km to take advantage of usually lower winds facilitating station keeping, below 30 km to limit the challenges to achieve a reasonable payload at acceptable platform sizes. Stratospheric platforms could substitute satellites which are expensive and lack upgrade capabilities for new equipment. Furthermore they have practically an unlimited time over an area of interest. It is intended to keep the platforms operational and maintenance free on a 24/7 basis with an average deployment time of 3 years. Geostationary satellites lack resolution. Potential customers like Armed Forces, National Agencies and commercial customers have indicated interest in the use of stratospheric platforms. Governmental entities are looking for cheaper alternatives to communications and surveillance satellites and stratospheric platforms could offer the following potential advantages: Lower operational cost than satellite or UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) constellation (fleet required); Faster deployment than satellite constellation; Repositioning capability and ability to loiter as required; Persistent long-term real-time services over a fairly large regional spot; Surge capability: Able to extend capability (either monitoring or communications

  4. Tibetan Plateau glacier and hydrological change under stratospheric aerosol injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, D.

    2017-12-01

    As an important inland freshwater resource, mountain glaciers are highly related to human life, they provide water for many large rivers and play a very important role in regional water cycles. The response of mountain glaciers to future climate change is a topic of concern especially to the many people who rely on glacier-fed rivers for purposes such as irrigation. Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection is a method of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases. How the geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection affects the mass balance of mountain glaciers and adjacent river discharge is little understood. In this study, we use regional climate model WRF and catchment-based river model CaMa-Flood to study the impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection to Tibetan Plateau glacier mass balance and adjacent river discharge. To facilitate mountain glacier mass balance study, we improve the description of mountain glacier in the land surface scheme of WRF. The improvements include: (1) a fine mesh nested in WRF horizontal grid to match the highly non-uniform spatial distribution of the mountain glaciers, (2) revising the radiation flux at the glacier surface considering the surrounding terrain. We use the projections of five Earth system models for CMIP5 rcp45 and GeoMIP G4 scenarios to drive the WRF and CaMa-Flood models. The G4 scenario, which uses stratospheric aerosols to reduce the incoming shortwave while applying the rcp4.5 greenhouse gas forcing, starts stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection at a rate of 5 Tg per year over the period 2020-2069. The ensemble projections suggest relatively slower glacier mass loss rates and reduced river discharge at Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions under geoengineering scenario by stratospheric aerosol injection.

  5. Tiny Ultraviolet Polarimeter for Earth Stratosphere from Space Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevodovskyi, P. V.; Morozhenko, O. V.; Vidmachenko, A. P.; Ivakhiv, O.; Geraimchuk, M.; Zbrutskyi, O.

    2015-09-01

    One of the reasons for climate change (i.e., stratospheric ozone concentrations) is connected with the variations in optical thickness of aerosols in the upper sphere of the atmosphere (at altitudes over 30 km). Therefore, aerosol and gas components of the atmosphere are crucial in the study of the ultraviolet (UV) radiation passing upon the Earth. Moreover, a scrupulous study of aerosol components of the Earth atmosphere at an altitude of 30 km (i.e., stratospheric aerosol), such as the size of particles, the real part of refractive index, optical thickness and its horizontal structure, concentration of ozone or the upper border of the stratospheric ozone layer is an important task in the research of the Earth climate change. At present, the Main Astronomical Observatory of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) of Ukraine, the National Technical University of Ukraine "KPI"and the Lviv Polytechnic National University are engaged in the development of methodologies for the study of stratospheric aerosol by means of ultraviolet polarimeter using a microsatellite. So fare, there has been created a sample of a tiny ultraviolet polarimeter (UVP) which is considered to be a basic model for carrying out space experiments regarding the impact of the changes in stratospheric aerosols on both global and local climate.

  6. Simulation of stratospheric water vapor trends: impact on stratospheric ozone chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A transient model simulation of the 40-year time period 1960 to 1999 with the coupled climate-chemistry model (CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM shows a stratospheric water vapor increase over the last two decades of 0.7 ppmv and, additionally, a short-term increase after major volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, a long-term decrease in global total ozone as well as a short-term ozone decline in the tropics after volcanic eruptions are modeled. In order to understand the resulting effects of the water vapor changes on lower stratospheric ozone chemistry, different perturbation simulations were performed with the CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM feeding the water vapor perturbations only to the chemistry part. Two different long-term perturbations of lower stratospheric water vapor, +1 ppmv and +5 ppmv, and a short-term perturbation of +2 ppmv with an e-folding time of two months were applied. An additional stratospheric water vapor amount of 1 ppmv results in a 5–10% OH increase in the tropical lower stratosphere between 100 and 30 hPa. As a direct consequence of the OH increase the ozone destruction by the HOx cycle becomes 6.4% more effective. Coupling processes between the HOx-family and the NOx/ClOx-family also affect the ozone destruction by other catalytic reaction cycles. The NOx cycle becomes 1.6% less effective, whereas the effectiveness of the ClOx cycle is again slightly enhanced. A long-term water vapor increase does not only affect gas-phase chemistry, but also heterogeneous ozone chemistry in polar regions. The model results indicate an enhanced heterogeneous ozone depletion during antarctic spring due to a longer PSC existence period. In contrast, PSC formation in the northern hemisphere polar vortex and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion during arctic spring are not affected by the water vapor increase, because of the less PSC activity. Finally, this study shows that 10% of the global total ozone decline in the transient model run

  7. Effects of stratospheric perturbations on the solar radiation budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luther, F.M.

    1978-04-01

    The changes in solar absorption and in local heating rates due to perturbations to O 3 and NO 2 concentrations caused by stratospheric injection of NO/sub x/ and CFM pollutants are assessed. The changes in species concentration profiles are derived from theoretical calculations using a transport-kinetics model. Because of significant changes in our understanding of stratospheric chemistry during the past year, the assessment of the effect of stratospheric perturbations on the solar radiation budget differs from previous assessments. Previously, a reduction in O 3 due to an NO/sub x/ injection caused a net decrease in the gaseous solar absorption;now the same perturbation leads to a net increase. The implication of these changes on the surface temperature is also discussed

  8. Stratospheric aerosols and precursor gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    Measurements were made of the aerosol size, height and geographical distribution, their composition and optical properties, and their temporal variation with season and following large volcanic eruptions. Sulfur-bearing gases were measured in situ in the stratosphere, and studied of the chemical and physical processes which control gas-to-particle conversion were carried out in the laboratory.

  9. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben; Robock, Alan; Boucher, Olivier; Schmidt, Hauke; Taylor, Karl E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Schulz, Michael

    2011-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far

  10. Nuclear models relevant to evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Chadwick, M.B.; Hale, G.M.; Young, P.G.

    1991-01-01

    The widespread use of nuclear models continues in the creation of data evaluations. The reasons include extension of data evaluations to higher energies, creation of data libraries for isotopic components of natural materials, and production of evaluations for radiative target species. In these cases, experimental data are often sparse or nonexistent. As this trend continues, the nuclear models employed in evaluation work move towards more microscopically-based theoretical methods, prompted in part by the availability of increasingly powerful computational resources. Advances in nuclear models applicable to evaluation will be reviewed. These include advances in optical model theory, microscopic and phenomenological state and level density theory, unified models that consistently describe both equilibrium and nonequilibrium reaction mechanism, and improved methodologies for calculation of prompt radiation from fission. 84 refs., 8 figs

  11. Copernicus stratospheric ozone service, 2009–2012: validation, system intercomparison and roles of input data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lefever

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates and discusses the quality of the stratospheric ozone analyses delivered in near real time by the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project during the 3-year period between September 2009 and September 2012. Ozone analyses produced by four different chemical data assimilation (CDA systems are examined and compared: the Integrated Forecast System coupled to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (IFS-MOZART; the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE; the Synoptic Analysis of Chemical Constituents by Advanced Data Assimilation (SACADA; and the Data Assimilation Model based on Transport Model version 3 (TM3DAM. The assimilated satellite ozone retrievals differed for each system; SACADA and TM3DAM assimilated only total ozone observations, BASCOE assimilated profiles for ozone and some related species, while IFS-MOZART assimilated both types of ozone observations. All analyses deliver total column values that agree well with ground-based observations (biases The northern spring 2011 period is studied in more detail to evaluate the ability of the analyses to represent the exceptional ozone depletion event, which happened above the Arctic in March 2011. Offline sensitivity tests are performed during this month and indicate that the differences between the forward models or the assimilation algorithms are much less important than the characteristics of the assimilated data sets. They also show that IFS-MOZART is able to deliver realistic analyses of ozone both in the troposphere and in the stratosphere, but this requires the assimilation of observations from nadir-looking instruments as well as the assimilation of profiles, which are well resolved vertically and extend into the lowermost stratosphere.

  12. Satellite studies of the stratospheric aerosol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCormick, M.P.; Hamill, P.; Pepin, T.J.; Chu, W.P.; Swissler, T.J.; McMaster, L.R.

    1979-01-01

    The potential climatological and environmental importance of the stratospheric aerosol layer has prompted great interest in measuring the properties of this aerosol. In this paper we report on two recently deployed NASA satellite systems (SAM II and SAGE) that are monitoring the stratospheric aerosol. The satellite orbits are such that nearly global coverage is obtained. The instruments mounted in the spacecraft are sun photometers that measure solar intensity at specific wavelengths as it is moderated by atmospheric particulates and gases during each sunrise and sunset encountered by the satellites. The data obtained are ''inverted'' to yield vertical aerosol and gaseous (primarily ozone) extinction profiles with 1 km vertical resolution. Thus, latitudinal, longitudinal, and temporal variations in the aerosol layer can be evaluated. The satellite systems are being validated by a series of ground truth experiments using airborne and ground lidar, balloon-borne dustsondes, aircraft-mounted impactors, and other correlative sensors. We describe the SAM II and SAGE satellite systems, instrument characteristics, and mode of operation; outline the methodology of the experiments; and describe the ground truth experiments. We present preliminary results from these measurements

  13. Tritium Records to Trace Stratospheric Moisture Inputs in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourré, E.; Landais, A.; Cauquoin, A.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Lipenkov, V.; Petit, J.-R.

    2018-03-01

    Better assessing the dynamic of stratosphere-troposphere exchange is a key point to improve our understanding of the climate dynamic in the East Antarctica Plateau, a region where stratospheric inputs are expected to be important. Although tritium (3H or T), a nuclide naturally produced mainly in the stratosphere and rapidly entering the water cycle as HTO, seems a first-rate tracer to study these processes, tritium data are very sparse in this region. We present the first high-resolution measurements of tritium concentration over the last 50 years in three snow pits drilled at the Vostok station. Natural variability of the tritium records reveals two prominent frequencies, one at about 10 years (to be related to the solar Schwabe cycles) and the other one at a shorter periodicity: despite dating uncertainty at this short scale, a good correlation is observed between 3H and Na+ and an anticorrelation between 3H and δ18O measured on an individual pit. The outputs from the LMDZ Atmospheric General Circulation Model including stable water isotopes and tritium show the same 3H-δ18O anticorrelation and allow further investigation on the associated mechanism. At the interannual scale, the modeled 3H variability matches well with the Southern Annular Mode index. At the seasonal scale, we show that modeled stratospheric tritium inputs in the troposphere are favored in winter cold and dry conditions.

  14. Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on PM2.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Xia, L.; Tilmes, S.; Mills, M. J.; Richter, J.; Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D.

    2017-12-01

    Particulate matter (PM) includes sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, soil dust, and sea salt. The first four components are mostly present near the ground as fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and these are of the most concern for human health. PM is efficiently scavenged by precipitation, which is its main atmospheric sink. Here we examine the impact of stratospheric climate engineering on this important pollutant and health risk, taking advantage of two sets of climate model simulations conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. We use the full tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry version of the Community Earth System Model - Community Atmospheric Model 4 (CESM CAM4-chem) with a horizontal resolution of 0.9° x 1.25° lat-lon to simulate a stratospheric sulfate injection climate intervention of 8 Tg SO2 yr-1 combined with an RCP6.0 global warming forcing, the G4 Specified Stratospheric Aerosol (G4SSA) scenario. We also analyze the output from a 20-member ensemble of Community Earth System Model, version 1 with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM1(WACCM)) simulations, also at 0.9° x 1.25° lat-lon resolution, with sulfur dioxide injection at 15°N, 15°S, 30°N, and 30°S varying in time to balance RCP8.5 forcing. While the CESM CAM4-chem model has full tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, CESM1(WACCM) has an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation and a comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric sulfate aerosol treatment, but only stratospheric chemistry. For G4SSA, there are a global temperature reduction of 0.8 K and global averaged precipitation decrease of 3% relative to RCP6.0. The global averaged surface PM2.5 reduces about 1% compared with RCP6.0, mainly over Eurasian and East Asian regions in Northern Hemisphere winter. The PM2.5 concentration change is a combination of effects from tropospheric chemistry and precipitation

  15. A linear CO chemistry parameterization in a chemistry-transport model: evaluation and application to data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Claeyman

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of a new linear parameterization valid for the troposphere and the stratosphere, based on a first order approximation of the carbon monoxide (CO continuity equation. This linear scheme (hereinafter noted LINCO has been implemented in the 3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmospherique Grande Echelle. First, a one and a half years of LINCO simulation has been compared to output obtained from a detailed chemical scheme output. The mean differences between both schemes are about ±25 ppbv (part per billion by volume or 15% in the troposphere and ±10 ppbv or 100% in the stratosphere. Second, LINCO has been compared to diverse observations from satellite instruments covering the troposphere (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere: MOPITT and the stratosphere (Microwave Limb Sounder: MLS and also from aircraft (Measurements of ozone and water vapour by Airbus in-service aircraft: MOZAIC programme mostly flying in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS. In the troposphere, the LINCO seasonal variations as well as the vertical and horizontal distributions are quite close to MOPITT CO observations. However, a bias of ~−40 ppbv is observed at 700 Pa between LINCO and MOPITT. In the stratosphere, MLS and LINCO present similar large-scale patterns, except over the poles where the CO concentration is underestimated by the model. In the UTLS, LINCO presents small biases less than 2% compared to independent MOZAIC profiles. Third, we assimilated MOPITT CO using a variational 3D-FGAT (First Guess at Appropriate Time method in conjunction with MOCAGE for a long run of one and a half years. The data assimilation greatly improves the vertical CO distribution in the troposphere from 700 to 350 hPa compared to independent MOZAIC profiles. At 146 hPa, the assimilated CO distribution is also improved compared to MLS observations by reducing the bias up to a factor of 2 in the tropics

  16. How stratospheric are deep stratospheric intrusions? LUAMI 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Trickl

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A large-scale comparison of water-vapour vertical-sounding instruments took place over central Europe on 17 October 2008, during a rather homogeneous deep stratospheric intrusion event (LUAMI, Lindenberg Upper-Air Methods Intercomparison. The measurements were carried out at four observational sites: Payerne (Switzerland, Bilthoven (the Netherlands, Lindenberg (north-eastern Germany, and the Zugspitze mountain (Garmisch-Partenkichen, German Alps, and by an airborne water-vapour lidar system creating a transect of humidity profiles between all four stations. A high data quality was verified that strongly underlines the scientific findings. The intrusion layer was very dry with a minimum mixing ratios of 0 to 35 ppm on its lower west side, but did not drop below 120 ppm on the higher-lying east side (Lindenberg. The dryness hardens the findings of a preceding study (“Part 1”, Trickl et al., 2014 that, e.g., 73 % of deep intrusions reaching the German Alps and travelling 6 days or less exhibit minimum mixing ratios of 50 ppm and less. These low values reflect values found in the lowermost stratosphere and indicate very slow mixing with tropospheric air during the downward transport to the lower troposphere. The peak ozone values were around 70 ppb, confirming the idea that intrusion layers depart from the lowermost edge of the stratosphere. The data suggest an increase of ozone from the lower to the higher edge of the intrusion layer. This behaviour is also confirmed by stratospheric aerosol caught in the layer. Both observations are in agreement with the idea that sections of the vertical distributions of these constituents in the source region were transferred to central Europe without major change. LAGRANTO trajectory calculations demonstrated a rather shallow outflow from the stratosphere just above the dynamical tropopause, for the first time confirming the conclusions in “Part 1” from the Zugspitze CO observations. The

  17. Stratospheric ozone - Impact of human activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcelroy, Michael B.; Salawitch, Ross J.

    1989-01-01

    The current knowledge of the chemistry of the stratosphere is reviewed, with particular consideration given to the measurements from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment and from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Analysis of the ATMOS data at 30 deg N suggests that the current understanding of the contemporary-stratosphere chemistry at mid-latitudes is relatively complete, except for possible problems with the diurnal variations of N2O5 at low altitudes, and with ClNO3 at higher altitudes. Except for some difficulties with these two compounds, the data from ATMOS agree well with the gas phase models for nitrogen and chlorine species at 30 deg N in spring. It is emphasized that, in addition to the HOCl mechanism proposed by Solomon et al. (1986), the ClO-BrO scheme proposed by McElroy et al. (1986), and the ClO dimer mechanism introduced by Molina and Molina (1987), other processes exist that are responsible for ozone removal.

  18. Laboratory chemistry and stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario J.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented from laboratory experiments on the chemistry of ice particles to study the role of HCl and ClONO2 from CFCs in stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica. It is found that gaseous HCl is scavenged with high efficiency by the ice and the gas phase chlorine nitrate may react with the HCL-containing ice to produce Cl2. Also, consideration is given ot the behavior of solid nitric acid trihydrate and sulfuric acid aerosols.

  19. A refined method for calculating equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald; Ostermöller, Jennifer; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dhomse, Sandip; Jöckel, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    Chlorine and bromine atoms lead to catalytic depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Therefore the use and production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) containing chlorine and bromine is regulated by the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) has been adopted as an appropriate metric to describe the combined effects of chlorine and bromine released from halocarbons on stratospheric ozone. Here we revisit the concept of calculating EESC. We derive a refined formulation of EESC based on an advanced concept of ODS propagation into the stratosphere and reactive halogen release. A new transit time distribution is introduced in which the age spectrum for an inert tracer is weighted with the release function for inorganic halogen from the source gases. This distribution is termed the release time distribution. We show that a much better agreement with inorganic halogen loading from the chemistry transport model TOMCAT is achieved compared with using the current formulation. The refined formulation shows EESC levels in the year 1980 for the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, which are significantly lower than previously calculated. The year 1980 is commonly used as a benchmark to which EESC must return in order to reach significant progress towards halogen and ozone recovery. Assuming that - under otherwise unchanged conditions - the EESC value must return to the same level in order for ozone to fully recover, we show that it will take more than 10 years longer than estimated in this region of the stratosphere with the current method for calculation of EESC. We also present a range of sensitivity studies to investigate the effect of changes and uncertainties in the fractional release factors and in the assumptions on the shape of the release time distributions. We further discuss the value of EESC as a proxy for future evolution of inorganic halogen loading under changing atmospheric dynamics using simulations from

  20. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with

  1. Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering impacts on global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Lawrence, P.; Lombardozzi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering has been proposed to reduce the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. If it is ever used, it would change agricultural production, and so is one of the future climate scenarios for the third phase of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. As an example of those impacts, we use the Community Land Model (CLM-crop 4.5) to simulate how climate changes from the G4 geoengineering scenario from the Geoengineering Modeling Intercomparison Project. The G4 geoengineering scenario specifies, in combination with RCP4.5 forcing, starting in 2020 daily injections of a constant amount of SO2 at a rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year at one point on the Equator into the lower stratosphere. Eight climate modeling groups have completed G4 simulations. We use the crop model to simulate the impacts of climate change (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on the global agriculture system for five crops - rice, maize, soybeans, cotton, and sugarcane. In general, without irrigation, compared with the reference run (RCP4.5), global production of cotton, rice and sugarcane would increase significantly due to the cooling effect. Maize and soybeans show different regional responses. In tropical regions, maize and soybean have a higher yield in G4 compared with RCP4.5, while in the temperate regions they have a lower yield under a geoengineered climate. Impacts on specific countries in terms of different crop production depend on their locations. For example, the United States and Argentina show soybean production reduction of about 15% under G4 compared to RCP4.5, while Brazil increases soybean production by about 10%.

  2. Rock mechanics models evaluation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The primary recommendations of the analysis are that the DOT code be used for two-dimensional thermal analysis and that the STEALTH and HEATING 5/6 codes be used for three-dimensional and complicated two-dimensional thermal analysis. STEALTH and SPECTROM 32 are recommended for thermomechanical analyses. The other evaluated codes should be considered for use in certain applications. A separate review of salt creep models indicate that the commonly used exponential time law model is appropriate for use in repository design studies. 38 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  3. Accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures from reanalyses evaluated from A-Train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Alyn; Santee, Michelle L.

    2018-02-01

    We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100-10 hPa during 2008-2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis datasets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-I), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5.9.1 near-real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) and ice clouds. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO3 and H2O. The estimated bias and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, are 0.6-1.5 and 0.3-0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference, they are 0.4 and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (bias 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer Peninsula and

  4. Mechanism and Kinetics of the Formation and Transport of Aerosol Particles in the Lower Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloyan, A. E.; Ermakov, A. N.; Arutyunyan, V. O.

    2018-03-01

    Field and laboratory observation data on aerosol particles in the lower stratosphere are considered. The microphysics of their formation, mechanisms of heterogeneous chemical reactions involving reservoir gases (e.g., HCl, ClONO2, etc.) and their kinetic characteristics are analyzed. A new model of global transport of gaseous and aerosol admixtures in the lower stratosphere is described. The preliminary results from a numerical simulation of the formation of sulfate particles of the Junge layer and particles of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs, types Ia, Ib, and II) are presented, and their effect on the gas and aerosol composition is analyzed.

  5. Sulfuric acid deposition from stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2009-07-28

    We used a general circulation model of Earth\\'s climate to conduct geoengineering experiments involving stratospheric injection of sulfur dioxide and analyzed the resulting deposition of sulfate. When sulfur dioxide is injected into the tropical or Arctic stratosphere, the main additional surface deposition of sulfate occurs in midlatitude bands, because of strong cross-tropopause flux in the jet stream regions. We used critical load studies to determine the effects of this increase in sulfate deposition on terrestrial ecosystems by assuming the upper limit of hydration of all sulfate aerosols into sulfuric acid. For annual injection of 5 Tg of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere or 3 Tg of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere, neither the maximum point value of sulfate deposition of approximately 1.5 mEq m−2 a−1 nor the largest additional deposition that would result from geoengineering of approximately 0.05 mEq m−2 a−1 is enough to negatively impact most ecosystems.

  6. Sulfuric acid deposition from stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben; Robock, Alan; Oman, Luke; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Marquardt, Allison B.

    2009-01-01

    We used a general circulation model of Earth's climate to conduct geoengineering experiments involving stratospheric injection of sulfur dioxide and analyzed the resulting deposition of sulfate. When sulfur dioxide is injected into the tropical or Arctic stratosphere, the main additional surface deposition of sulfate occurs in midlatitude bands, because of strong cross-tropopause flux in the jet stream regions. We used critical load studies to determine the effects of this increase in sulfate deposition on terrestrial ecosystems by assuming the upper limit of hydration of all sulfate aerosols into sulfuric acid. For annual injection of 5 Tg of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere or 3 Tg of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere, neither the maximum point value of sulfate deposition of approximately 1.5 mEq m−2 a−1 nor the largest additional deposition that would result from geoengineering of approximately 0.05 mEq m−2 a−1 is enough to negatively impact most ecosystems.

  7. The EU model evaluation group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1999-01-01

    The model evaluation group (MEG) was launched in 1992 growing out of the Major Technological Hazards Programme with EU/DG XII. The goal of MEG was to improve the culture in which models were developed, particularly by encouraging voluntary model evaluation procedures based on a formalised and consensus protocol. The evaluation intended to assess the fitness-for-purpose of the models being used as a measure of the quality. The approach adopted was focused on developing a generic model evaluation protocol and subsequent targeting this onto specific areas of application. Five such developments have been initiated, on heavy gas dispersion, liquid pool fires, gas explosions, human factors and momentum fires. The quality of models is an important element when complying with the 'Seveso Directive' requiring that the safety reports submitted to the authorities comprise an assessment of the extent and severity of the consequences of identified major accidents. Further, the quality of models become important in the land use planning process, where the proximity of industrial sites to vulnerable areas may be critical. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  8. Impacts of Stratospheric Black Carbon on Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.; Elliott, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, which would absorb sunlight, decrease global surface temperature by about 1°C for 5-10 years and have major impacts on precipitation and the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Using two global gridded crop models forced by one global climate model simulation, we investigate the impacts on agricultural productivity in various nations. The crop model in the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM-crop4.5) and the parallel Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (pDSSAT) in the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors are participating in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison. We force these two crop models with output from the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model to characterize the global agricultural impact from climate changes due to a regional nuclear war. Crops in CLM-crop4.5 include maize, rice, soybean, cotton and sugarcane, and crops in pDSSAT include maize, rice, soybean and wheat. Although the two crop models require a different time frequency of weather input, we downscale the climate model output to provide consistent temperature, precipitation and solar radiation inputs. In general, CLM-crop4.5 simulates a larger global average reduction of maize and soybean production relative to pDSSAT. Global rice production shows negligible change with climate anomalies from a regional nuclear war. Cotton and sugarcane benefit from a regional nuclear war from CLM-crop4.5 simulation, and global wheat production would decrease significantly in the pDSSAT simulation. The regional crop yield responses to a regional nuclear conflict are different for each crop, and we present the changes in production on a national basis. These models do not include the crop responses to changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, or diffuse radiation, and we would like to encourage more modelers to improve crop models to account for those

  9. Mobility Models for Systems Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musolesi, Mirco; Mascolo, Cecilia

    Mobility models are used to simulate and evaluate the performance of mobile wireless systems and the algorithms and protocols at the basis of them. The definition of realistic mobility models is one of the most critical and, at the same time, difficult aspects of the simulation of applications and systems designed for mobile environments. There are essentially two possible types of mobility patterns that can be used to evaluate mobile network protocols and algorithms by means of simulations: traces and synthetic models [130]. Traces are obtained by means of measurements of deployed systems and usually consist of logs of connectivity or location information, whereas synthetic models are mathematical models, such as sets of equations, which try to capture the movement of the devices.

  10. Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stübi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; Bourassa, Adam; Davis, Sean M.; Degenstein, Doug; Frith, Stacey; Froidevaux, Lucien; Roth, Chris; Sofieva, Viktoria; Wang, Ray; Wild, Jeannette; Yu, Pengfei; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Rozanov, Eugene V.

    2018-02-01

    Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60-90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

  11. Evidence for a Continuous Decline in Lower Stratospheric Ozone Offsetting Ozone Layer Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stuebi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; hide

    2018-01-01

    Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective "ozone layer" around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60degS and 60degN outside the polar regions (60-90deg). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60degS and 60degN has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60degS and 60degN. We find that total column ozone between 60degS and 60degN appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

  12. Stratospheric HTO perturbations 1980-1983

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, A. S.

    1985-02-01

    Three perturbations of the stratospheric tritiated water burden have occurred. An atmospheric nuclear detonation in 1980 injected about 2.1 MCi. The massive eruptions of the volcano El Chichon may have contributed to a doubling of the removal rate in 1982. An unusually large wintertime exchange with the upper stratosphere may have occurred between 1982 and 1983.

  13. Early work on the stratospheric ozone depletion-CFC issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, M.

    2012-12-01

    I became involved with the atmospheric chemistry of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) shortly after joining Sherry Rowland's research group at the University of California, Irvine, in 1973. CFCs had been detected in the troposphere by James Lovelock in 1971, and the question we set out to answer was the fate of these compounds of industrial origin in the environment, as well as possibly identifying any consequences of their accumulation in the atmosphere. After examining many potential sinks for these compounds we realized that because of their unusual stability the most likely destruction process was photolysis in the stratosphere. I carried out measurements of the absorption spectra of these compounds in the near ultraviolet; previous work involved only spectra in the far ultraviolet, not relevant for atmospheric chemistry. The results indicated that photolysis would take place in the upper stratosphere. I subsequently carried out calculations using one-dimensional atmospheric models to estimate their atmospheric residence times, which turned out to be many decades. We realized that the chlorine atoms generated by photolysis of the CFCs would participate in a catalytic chain reaction that would efficiently destroy ozone. Furthermore, we estimated that the amount of CFCs produced industrially was comparable to the amount of nitric oxide produced naturally in the stratosphere by the decomposition of nitrous oxide; work by Paul Crutzen and Harold Johnston had indicated that the abundance of ozone in the stratosphere was controlled by nitric oxide. We then formulated the hypothesis that the continued release of CFCs to the environment posed a threat to the stability of the ozone layer, and published our results in the journal Nature in 1974. The publication was noticed almost exclusively by the community of experts in stratospheric chemistry, and hence Sherry Rowland and I decided at that time that it was our responsibility to communicate this finding to society at large

  14. Solar wind control of stratospheric temperatures in Jupiter's auroral regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, James Andrew; Orton, Glenn; Kasaba, Yasumasa; Sato, Takao M.; Tao, Chihiro; Waite, J. Hunter; Cravens, Thomas; Houston, Stephen; Fletcher, Leigh; Irwin, Patrick; Greathouse, Thomas K.

    2017-10-01

    Auroral emissions are the process through which the interaction of a planet’s atmosphere and its external magnetosphere can be studied. Jupiter exhibits auroral emission at a multitude of wavelengths including the X-ray, ultraviolet and near-infrared. Enhanced emission of CH4 and other stratospheric hydrocarbons is also observed coincident with Jupiter’s shorter-wavelength auroral emission (e.g. Caldwell et al., 1980, Icarus 44, 667-675, Kostiuk et al., 1993, JGR 98, 18823). This indicates that auroral processes modify the thermal structure and composition of the auroral stratosphere. The exact mechanism responsible for this auroral-related heating of the stratosphere has however remained elusive (Sinclair et al., 2017a, Icarus 292, 182-207, Sinclair et al., 2017b, GRL, 44, 5345-5354). We will present an analysis of 7.8-μm images of Jupiter measured by COMICS (Cooled Mid-Infrared Camera and Spectrograph, Kataza et al., 2000, Proc. SPIE(4008), 1144-1152) on the Subaru telescope. These images were acquired on January 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, February 4, 5th and May 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th in 2017, allowing the daily variability of Jupiter’s auroral-related stratospheric heating to be tracked. Preliminary results suggest lower stratospheric temperatures are directly forced by the solar wind dynamical pressure. The southern auroral hotspot exhibited a significant increase in brightness temperature over a 24-hour period. Over the same time period, a solar wind propagation model (Tao et al. 2005, JGR 110, A11208) predicts a strong increase in the solar wind dynamical pressure at Jupiter.

  15. Intercomparison of stratospheric temperature profiles from a ground-based microwave radiometer with other techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Navas-Guzmán

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this work the stratospheric performance of a relatively new microwave temperature radiometer (TEMPERA has been evaluated. With this goal in mind, almost 3 years of temperature measurements (January 2014–September 2016 from the TEMPERA radiometer were intercompared with simultaneous measurements from other techniques: radiosondes, MLS satellite and Rayleigh lidar. This intercomparison campaign was carried out at the aerological station of MeteoSwiss at Payerne (Switzerland. In addition, the temperature profiles from TEMPERA were used to validate the temperature outputs from the SD-WACCM model. The results showed in general a very good agreement between TEMPERA and the different instruments and the model, with a high correlation (higher than 0.9 in the temperature evolution at different altitudes between TEMPERA and the different data sets. An annual pattern was observed in the stratospheric temperature with generally higher temperatures in summer than in winter and with a higher variability during winter. A clear change in the tendency of the temperature deviations was detected in summer 2015, which was due to the repair of an attenuator in the TEMPERA spectrometer. The mean and the standard deviations of the temperature differences between TEMPERA and the different measurements were calculated for two periods (before and after the repair in order to quantify the accuracy and precision of this radiometer over the campaign period. The results showed absolute biases and standard deviations lower than 2 K for most of the altitudes. In addition, comparisons proved the good performance of TEMPERA in measuring the temperature in the stratosphere.

  16. What Controls the Arctic Lower Stratosphere Temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period. We will further show that the recent cold years in the northern polar vortex are a result of this weakened wave driving of the stratosphere.

  17. The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Thornton

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB, the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE, the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II. The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in

  18. The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

    2009-02-01

    This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison

  19. Stratospheric changes caused by geoengineering applications: potential repercussions and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenzelmann, P.; Weisenstein, D.; Peter, T.; Luo, B. P.; Rozanov, E.; Fueglistaler, S.; Thomason, L. W.

    2009-04-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions tend to warm the global climate, calling for significant rapid emission reductions. As potential support measures various ideas for geoengineering are currently being discussed. The assessment of the possible manifold and as yet substantially unexplored repercussions of implementing geoengineering ideas to ameliorate climate change poses enormous challenges not least in the realm of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Sulphur aerosols cool the Earth's surface by reflecting short wave radiation. By increasing the amount of sulphur aerosols in the stratosphere, for example by sulphur dioxide injections, part of the anthropogenic climate warming might be compensated due to enhanced albedo. However, we are only at the beginning of understanding possible side effects. One such effect that such aerosol might have is the warming of the tropical tropopause and consequently the increase of the amount of stratospheric water vapour. Using the 2D AER Aerosol Model we calculated the aerosol distributions for yearly injections of 1, 2, 5 and 10 Mt sulphur into the lower tropical stratosphere. The results serve as input for the 3D chemistry-climate model SOCOL, which allows calculating the aerosol effect on stratospheric temperatures and chemistry. In the injection region the continuously formed sulphuric acid condensates rapidly on sulphate aerosol, which eventually grow to such extent that they sediment down to the tropical tropopause region. The growth of the aerosol particles depends on non-linear processes: the more sulphur is emitted the faster the particles grow. As a consequence for the scenario with continuous sulphur injection of totally 10 Mt per year, only 6 Mt sulphur are in the stratosphere if equilibrium is reached. According to our model calculations this amount of sulphate aerosols leads to a net surface forcing of -3.4 W/m2, which is less then expected radiative forcing by doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Hence

  20. Stable Water Isotopologues in the Stratosphere Retrieved from Odin/SMR Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tongmei Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Stable Water Isotopologues (SWIs are important diagnostic tracers for understanding processes in the atmosphere and the global hydrological cycle. Using eight years (2002–2009 of retrievals from Odin/SMR (Sub-Millimetre Radiometer, the global climatological features of three SWIs, H216O, HDO and H218O, the isotopic composition δD and δ18O in the stratosphere are analysed for the first time. Spatially, SWIs are found to increase with altitude due to stratospheric methane oxidation. In the tropics, highly depleted SWIs in the lower stratosphere indicate the effect of dehydration when the air comes through the cold tropopause, while, at higher latitudes, more enriched SWIs in the upper stratosphere during summer are produced and transported to the other hemisphere via the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Furthermore, we found that more H216O is produced over summer Northern Hemisphere and more HDO is produced over summer Southern Hemisphere. Temporally, a tape recorder in H216O is observed in the lower tropical stratosphere, in addition to a pronounced downward propagating seasonal signal in SWIs from the upper to the lower stratosphere over the polar regions. These observed features in SWIs are further compared to SWI-enabled model outputs. This helped to identify possible causes of model deficiencies in reproducing main stratospheric features. For instance, choosing a better advection scheme and including methane oxidation process in a specific model immediately capture the main features of stratospheric water vapor. The representation of other features, such as the observed inter-hemispheric difference of isotopic component, is also discussed.

  1. The model evaluation of subsonic aircraft effect on the ozone and radiative forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rozanov, E; Zubov, V; Egorova, T; Ozolin, Y [Main Geophysical Observatory, St.Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1998-12-31

    Two dimensional transient zonally averaged model was used for the evaluation of the effect of subsonic aircraft exhausts upon the ozone, trace gases and radiation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The mesoscale transformation of gas composition was included on the base of the box model simulations. It has been found that the transformation of the exhausted gases in sub-grid scale is able to influence the results of the modelling. The radiative forcing caused by gas, sulfate aerosol, soot and contrails changes was estimated as big as 0.12-0.15 W/m{sup 2} (0.08 W/m{sup 2} globally and annually averaged). (author) 10 refs.

  2. The model evaluation of subsonic aircraft effect on the ozone and radiative forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rozanov, E.; Zubov, V.; Egorova, T.; Ozolin, Y. [Main Geophysical Observatory, St.Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    Two dimensional transient zonally averaged model was used for the evaluation of the effect of subsonic aircraft exhausts upon the ozone, trace gases and radiation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The mesoscale transformation of gas composition was included on the base of the box model simulations. It has been found that the transformation of the exhausted gases in sub-grid scale is able to influence the results of the modelling. The radiative forcing caused by gas, sulfate aerosol, soot and contrails changes was estimated as big as 0.12-0.15 W/m{sup 2} (0.08 W/m{sup 2} globally and annually averaged). (author) 10 refs.

  3. Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

    2013-01-01

    Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

  4. Eight years of stratospheric ozone observations at Marambio, Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damski, J; Taalas, P [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland). Section of Ozone and UV Research

    1996-12-31

    In this work behaviour of the stratospheric ozone using the total ozone and ozone sounding measurements from Marambio (64 deg 14`S, 56 deg 37`W) at Antarctic Peninsula has been studied. The effects of depleted stratospheric ozone to the UV-B-radiation are investigated employing a radiative transfer model, and the Marambio total ozone measurements. The levels of UV-B radiation have been studied from the point of the erythemal UV-B-doses on the horizontal human epidermis. The low values of total ozone at Marambio are also reflected to the received UV-doses which have increased roughly 20-80% (compared to long term average) during austral spring and summer. In respective to the total amount of ozone, the model calculations show that during October the UV-B-doses can be at the same level they should be during normal summer

  5. Eight years of stratospheric ozone observations at Marambio, Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Damski, J.; Taalas, P. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland). Section of Ozone and UV Research

    1995-12-31

    In this work behaviour of the stratospheric ozone using the total ozone and ozone sounding measurements from Marambio (64 deg 14`S, 56 deg 37`W) at Antarctic Peninsula has been studied. The effects of depleted stratospheric ozone to the UV-B-radiation are investigated employing a radiative transfer model, and the Marambio total ozone measurements. The levels of UV-B radiation have been studied from the point of the erythemal UV-B-doses on the horizontal human epidermis. The low values of total ozone at Marambio are also reflected to the received UV-doses which have increased roughly 20-80% (compared to long term average) during austral spring and summer. In respective to the total amount of ozone, the model calculations show that during October the UV-B-doses can be at the same level they should be during normal summer

  6. Alert with destruction of stratospheric ozone: 95 Nobel Prize Winners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santamaria, J.; Zurita, E.

    1995-01-01

    After briefly summarizing the discoveries of the 95 Nobel Prize Winners in Chemistry related to the threats to the ozone layer by chemical pollutants, we make a soft presentation of the overall problem of stratospheric ozone, starting with the destructive catalytic cycles of the pollutant-based free radicals, following with the diffusion mathematical models in Atmospheric Chemistry, and ending with the increasing annual drama of the ozone hole in the Antarctica. (Author)

  7. Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  8. Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

    2005-02-01

    We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

  9. Laboratory Investigations of Stratospheric Halogen Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, Paul H.; Nicovich, J. Michael; Stickel, Robert E.; Hynes, Anthony J.

    1997-01-01

    A final report for the NASA-supported project on laboratory investigations of stratospheric halogen chemistry is presented. In recent years, this project has focused on three areas of research: (1) kinetic, mechanistic, and thermochemical studies of reactions which produce weakly bound chemical species of atmospheric interest; (2) development of flash photolysis schemes for studying radical-radical reactions of stratospheric interest; and (3) photochemistry studies of interest for understanding stratospheric chemistry. The first section of this paper contains a discussion of work which has not yet been published. All subsequent chapters contain reprints of published papers that acknowledge support from this grant.

  10. Solar research with stratospheric balloons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Manuel; Wittmann, Axel D.

    Balloons, driven by hot air or some gas lighter than air, were the first artificial machines able to lift payloads (including humans) from the ground. After some pioneering flights the study of the physical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere constituted the first scientific target. A bit later astronomers realized that the turbulence of the atmospheric layers above their ground-based telescopes deteriorated the image quality, and that balloons were an appropriate means to overcome, total or partially, this problem. Some of the most highly-resolved photographs and spectrograms of the sun during the 20th century were actually obtained by balloon-borne telescopes from the stratosphere. Some more recent projects of solar balloon astronomy will also be described.

  11. Stratospheric ozone reduction and its relation to natural and man made sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaksen, I S [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Geophysics

    1996-12-31

    Approximately 90 % of the total ozone mass is in the stratosphere (between approximately 12 and 50 km), the rest is in the troposphere (below 12 km). The global distribution of ozone in the stratosphere and its variation over time have been studied extensively over several decades. These studies include observations by ground based instruments (e.g. Dobson instruments), instruments on airborne platforms (e.g. ozone sondes) and on satellites, and model studies which simulate the chemical and dynamical behaviour of the stratosphere. These studies have given good information about the processes which determine the ozone distribution, and how man made emissions affect the distribution. Observations have revealed that there are large year to year variations in stratospheric ozone above a particular location. These variations are difficult to predict as they are connected to irregular weather patterns. However, the observations have shown that there has been a long term decrease in stratospheric ozone on a global scale during the last two decades. The decrease has been most pronounced during the last five to six years and is seen both in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. The strong decrease in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic continent, which has been observed since the mid 80s, and which has reduced the total ozone column with more than 50 % compared with earlier observations, is proven to be a result of increased man made emissions of CFCs. There are also mounting evidences that Northern Hemispheric ozone reductions observed since 1980 are connected to man made emissions of CFCs

  12. Stratospheric ozone reduction and its relation to natural and man made sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaksen, I.S. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Geophysics

    1995-12-31

    Approximately 90 % of the total ozone mass is in the stratosphere (between approximately 12 and 50 km), the rest is in the troposphere (below 12 km). The global distribution of ozone in the stratosphere and its variation over time have been studied extensively over several decades. These studies include observations by ground based instruments (e.g. Dobson instruments), instruments on airborne platforms (e.g. ozone sondes) and on satellites, and model studies which simulate the chemical and dynamical behaviour of the stratosphere. These studies have given good information about the processes which determine the ozone distribution, and how man made emissions affect the distribution. Observations have revealed that there are large year to year variations in stratospheric ozone above a particular location. These variations are difficult to predict as they are connected to irregular weather patterns. However, the observations have shown that there has been a long term decrease in stratospheric ozone on a global scale during the last two decades. The decrease has been most pronounced during the last five to six years and is seen both in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. The strong decrease in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic continent, which has been observed since the mid 80s, and which has reduced the total ozone column with more than 50 % compared with earlier observations, is proven to be a result of increased man made emissions of CFCs. There are also mounting evidences that Northern Hemispheric ozone reductions observed since 1980 are connected to man made emissions of CFCs

  13. Dust ablation on the giant planets: Consequences for stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Julianne I.; Poppe, Andrew R.

    2017-11-01

    Ablation of interplanetary dust supplies oxygen to the upper atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. Using recent dynamical model predictions for the dust influx rates to the giant planets (Poppe et al., 2016), we calculate the ablation profiles and investigate the subsequent coupled oxygen-hydrocarbon neutral photochemistry in the stratospheres of these planets. We find that dust grains from the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt, Jupiter-family comets, and Oort-cloud comets supply an effective oxygen influx rate of 1.0-0.7+2.2 ×107 O atoms cm-2 s-1 to Jupiter, 7.4-5.1+16 ×104 cm-2 s-1 to Saturn, 8.9-6.1+19 ×104 cm-2 s-1 to Uranus, and 7.5-5.1+16 ×105 cm-2 s-1 to Neptune. The fate of the ablated oxygen depends in part on the molecular/atomic form of the initially delivered products, and on the altitude at which it was deposited. The dominant stratospheric products are CO, H2O, and CO2, which are relatively stable photochemically. Model-data comparisons suggest that interplanetary dust grains deliver an important component of the external oxygen to Jupiter and Uranus but fall far short of the amount needed to explain the CO abundance currently seen in the middle stratospheres of Saturn and Neptune. Our results are consistent with the theory that all of the giant planets have experienced large cometary impacts within the last few hundred years. Our results also suggest that the low background H2O abundance in Jupiter's stratosphere is indicative of effective conversion of meteoric oxygen to CO during or immediately after the ablation process - photochemistry alone cannot efficiently convert the H2O into CO on the giant planets.

  14. Laboratory studies of stratospheric aerosol chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario J.

    1996-01-01

    In this report we summarize the results of the two sets of projects funded by the NASA grant NAG2-632, namely investigations of various thermodynamic and nucleation properties of the aqueous acid system which makes up stratospheric aerosols, and measurements of reaction probabilities directly on ice aerosols with sizes corresponding to those of polar stratospheric cloud particles. The results of these investigations are of importance for the assessment of the potential stratospheric effects of future fleets of supersonic aircraft. In particular, the results permit to better estimate the effects of increased amounts of water vapor and nitric acid (which forms from nitrogen oxides) on polar stratospheric clouds and on the chemistry induced by these clouds.

  15. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering

    KAUST Repository

    Robock, Alan; Marquardt, Allison; Kravitz, Ben; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-01-01

    Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers

  16. Performability Modelling Tools, Evaluation Techniques and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.

    1990-01-01

    This thesis deals with three aspects of quantitative evaluation of fault-tolerant and distributed computer and communication systems: performability evaluation techniques, performability modelling tools, and performability modelling applications. Performability modelling is a relatively new

  17. On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, Ales; Ball, William T.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr; Peter, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    The double-peaked response of the tropical stratospheric temperature profile to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) has been well documented. However, there are concerns about the origin of the lower peak due to potential aliasing with volcanic eruptions or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) detected using multiple linear regression analysis. We confirm the aliasing using the results of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3 obtained in the framework of the International Global Atmospheric Chemisty/Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1. We further show that even without major volcanic eruptions included in transient simulations, the lower stratospheric response exhibits a residual peak when historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)/sea ice coverage (SIC) are used. Only the use of climatological SSTs/SICs in addition to background stratospheric aerosols removes volcanic and ENSO signals and results in an almost complete disappearance of the modeled solar signal in the lower stratospheric temperature. We demonstrate that the choice of temporal subperiod considered for the regression analysis has a large impact on the estimated profile signal in the lower stratosphere: at least 45 consecutive years are needed to avoid the large aliasing effect of SC maxima with volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 in historical simulations, reanalyses, and observations. The application of volcanic forcing compiled for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the CCM SOCOLv3 reduces the warming overestimation in the tropical lower stratosphere and the volcanic aliasing of the temperature response to the SC, although it does not eliminate it completely.

  18. A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

  19. A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Newman

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show, discuss, and analyze a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This EESC can be more appropriately applied to various parts of the stratosphere because of this dependence on mean age-of-air. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. In this paper, we first provide a detailed description of the EESC calculation. We then use this EESC formulation to estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties and possible problems in the estimated times of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air and fractional release values, and the assumption that these quantities are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be significantly accelerated.

  20. Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scaife, Adam A.; Fereday, David R.; Butchart, Neal; Hardiman, Steven C. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Langematz, Ulrike [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Akiyoshi, Hideharu [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Bekki, Slimane [LATMOS-IPSL, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS/INSU, Paris (France); Braesicke, Peter [University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Chipperfield, Martyn P. [University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Gettelman, Andrew [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Michou, Martine [GAME/CNRM (Meteo France, CNRS), Toulouse (France); Rozanov, Eugene [PMOD/WRC and ETHZ, Davos (Switzerland); Shepherd, Theodore G. [University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2012-05-15

    Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections. (orig.)

  1. A New Formulation of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, P. A.; Daniel, J. S.; Waugh, D. W.; Nash, E. R.

    2007-01-01

    Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) is a convenient parameter to quantify the effects of halogens (chlorine and bromine) on ozone depletion in the stratosphere. We show and discuss a new formulation of EESC that now includes the effects of age-of-air dependent fractional release values and an age-of-air spectrum. This new formulation provides quantitative estimates of EESC that can be directly related to inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the stratosphere. Using this EESC formulation, we estimate that human-produced ozone depleting substances will recover to 1980 levels in 2041 in the midlatitudes, and 2067 over Antarctica. These recovery dates are based upon the assumption that the international agreements for regulating ozone-depleting substances are adhered to. In addition to recovery dates, we also estimate the uncertainties in the estimated time of recovery. The midlatitude recovery of 2041 has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2028 to 2049, while the 2067 Antarctic recovery has a 95% confidence uncertainty from 2056 to 2078. The principal uncertainties are from the estimated mean age-of-air, and the assumption that the mean age-of-air and fractional release values are time independent. Using other model estimates of age decrease due to climate change, we estimate that midlatitude recovery may be accelerated from 2041 to 2031.

  2. Evaluation Model for Sentient Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mª Florencia Fergnani Brion

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article we made a research about the Sentient Cities and produced an assessment model to analyse if a city is or could be potentially considered one. It can be used to evaluate the current situation of a city before introducing urban policies based on citizen participation in hybrid environments (physical and digital. To that effect, we've developed evaluation grids with the main elements that form a Sentient City and their measurement values. The Sentient City is a variation of the Smart City, also based on technology progress and innovation, but where the citizens are the principal agent. In this model, governments aim to have a participatory and sustainable system for achieving the Knowledge Society and Collective Intelligence development, as well as the city’s efficiency. Also, they increase communication channels between the Administration and citizens. In this new context, citizens are empowered because they have the opportunity to create a Local Identity and transform their surroundings through open and horizontal initiatives.

  3. The Spiral-Interactive Program Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaleel, Ibrahim Adamu

    1988-01-01

    Describes the spiral interactive program evaluation model, which is designed to evaluate vocational-technical education programs in secondary schools in Nigeria. Program evaluation is defined; utility oriented and process oriented models for evaluation are described; and internal and external evaluative factors and variables that define each…

  4. Age and gravitational separation of the stratospheric air over Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sugawara

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The gravitational separation of major atmospheric components, in addition to the age of air, would provide additional useful information about stratospheric circulation. However, observations of the age of air and gravitational separation are still geographically sparse, especially in the tropics. In order to address this issue, air samples were collected over Biak, Indonesia in February 2015 using four large plastic balloons, each loaded with two compact cryogenic samplers. With a vertical resolution of better than 2 km, air samples from seven different altitudes were analyzed for CO2 and SF6 mole fractions, δ15N of N2, δ18O of O2, and δ(Ar∕N2 to examine the vertically dependent age and gravitational separation of air in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL and the equatorial stratosphere. By comparing their measured mole fractions with aircraft observations in the upper tropical troposphere, we have found that CO2 and SF6 ages increase gradually with increasing altitude from the TTL to 22 km, and then rapidly from there up to 29 km. The CO2 and SF6 ages agree well with each other in the TTL and in the lower stratosphere, but show a significant difference above 24 km. The average values of δ15N of N2, δ18O of O2, and δ(Ar∕N2 all show a small but distinct upward decrease due to the gravitational separation effect. Simulations with a two-dimensional atmospheric transport model indicate that the gravitational separation effect decreases as tropical upwelling is enhanced. From the model calculations with enhanced eddy mixing, it is also found that the upward increase in air age is magnified by horizontal mixing. These model simulations also show that the gravitational separation effect remains relatively constant in the lower stratosphere. The results of this study strongly suggest that the gravitational separation, combined with the age of air, can be used to diagnose air transport processes in the stratosphere.

  5. Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mathole, K

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Circulation Model (called the ECHAM 4.5-MOM3-SA OAGCM)31 integrations for the first lead time (i.e. forecasts are made in early November for December- January-February).This model currently is used for operational forecast production at the South African... through modelling and predictability studies should include the knowledge of stratospheric as well as chemical processes (e.g. CO2 and ozone) which contribute to the so-called ‘complete climate system’. This notion was endorsed by the World Climate...

  6. Molecular beam studies of stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Teresa Anne

    1998-12-01

    Photochemistry of chlorine oxide containing species plays a major role in stratospheric ozone depletion. This thesis discusses two photodissociation studies of the key molecules ClONO2 and ClOOCl which were previously thought to only produce Cl-atom (ozone depleting) products at wavelengths relevant to the stratosphere. The development of a molecular beam source of ClOOCl and the photodissociation dynamics of the model system Cl2O are also discussed. In the first chapter, the photochemistry of ClONO2 is examined at 308 nm using the technique of photofragment translational spectroscopy. Two primary decomposition pathways, leading to Cl + NO3 and ClO + NO2, were observed, with a lower limit of 0.33 for the relative yield of ClO. The angular distributions for both channels were anisotropic, indicating that the dissociation occurs within a rotational period. Chapter two revisits the photodissociation dynamics of Cl2O at 248 and 308 nm, on which we had previously reported preliminary findings. At 248 nm, three distinct dissociation pathways leading to Cl + ClO products were resolved. At 308 nm, the angular distribution was slightly more isotropic that previously reported, leaving open the possibility that Cl2O excited at 308 nm lives longer than a rotational period. Chapter three describes the development and optimization of a molecular beam source of ClOOCl. We utilized pulsed laser photolysis of ClA2O to generate ClO radicals, and cooled the cell to promote three body recombination to form ClOOCl. The principal components in the beam were Cl2, Cl2O, and ClOOCl. In the fourth chapter, the photodissociation dynamics of ClOOCl are investigated at 248 and 308 nm. We observed multiple dissociation pathways which produced ClO + ClO and 2Cl + O2 products. The relative Cl:ClO product yields are 1.0:0.13 and 1.0:0.20 for ClOOCl photolysis at 248 and 308 nm, respectively. The upper limit for the relative yield of the ClO + ClO channel was 0.19 at 248 nm and 0.31 at 308 nm

  7. Mortality tradeoff between air quality and skin cancer from changes in stratospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastham, Sebastian D.; Keith, David W.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

    2018-03-01

    Skin cancer mortality resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion has been widely studied. Similarly, there is a deep body of literature on surface ozone and its health impacts, with modeling and observational studies demonstrating that surface ozone concentrations can be increased when stratospheric air mixes to the Earth’s surface. We offer the first quantitative estimate of the trade-off between these two effects, comparing surface air quality benefits and UV-related harms from stratospheric ozone depletion. Applying an idealized ozone loss term in the stratosphere of a chemistry-transport model for modern-day conditions, we find that each Dobson unit of stratospheric ozone depletion results in a net decrease in the global annual mortality rate of ~40 premature deaths per billion population (d/bn/DU). The impacts are spatially heterogeneous in sign and magnitude, composed of a reduction in premature mortality rate due to ozone exposure of ~80 d/bn/DU concentrated in Southeast Asia, and an increase in skin cancer mortality rate of ~40 d/bn/DU, mostly in Western Europe. This is the first study to quantify air quality benefits of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the first to find that marginal decreases in stratospheric ozone around modern-day values could result in a net reduction in global mortality due to competing health impact pathways. This result, which is subject to significant methodological uncertainty, highlights the need to understand the health and environmental trade-offs involved in policy decisions regarding anthropogenic influences on ozone chemistry over the 21st century.

  8. Temperature thresholds for chlorine activation and ozone loss in the polar stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drdla, K. [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States); Mueller, R. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (DE). Inst. of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-7)

    2012-07-01

    Low stratospheric temperatures are known to be responsible for heterogeneous chlorine activation that leads to polar ozone depletion. Here, we discuss the temperature threshold below which substantial chlorine activation occurs. We suggest that the onset of chlorine activation is dominated by reactions on cold binary aerosol particles, without the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), i.e. without any significant uptake of HNO{sub 3} from the gas phase. Using reaction rates on cold binary aerosol in a model of stratospheric chemistry, a chlorine activation threshold temperature, T{sub ACL}, is derived. At typical stratospheric conditions, T{sub ACL} is similar in value to T{sub NAT} (within 1-2 K), the highest temperature at which nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) can exist. T{sub NAT} is still in use to parameterise the threshold temperature for the onset of chlorine activation. However, perturbations can cause T{sub ACL} to differ from T{sub NAT}: T{sub ACL} is dependent upon H{sub 2} O and potential temperature, but unlike T{sub NAT} is not dependent upon HNO3. Furthermore, in contrast to T{sub NAT}, T{sub ACL} is dependent upon the stratospheric sulfate aerosol loading and thus provides a means to estimate the impact on polar ozone of strong volcanic eruptions and some geo-engineering options, which are discussed. A parameterisation of T{sub ACL} is provided here, allowing it to be calculated for low solar elevation (or high solar zenith angle) over a comprehensive range of stratospheric conditions. Considering T{sub ACL} as a proxy for chlorine activation cannot replace a detailed model calculation, and polar ozone loss is influenced by other factors apart from the initial chlorine activation. However, T{sub ACL} provides a more accurate description of the temperature conditions necessary for chlorine activation and ozone loss in the polar stratosphere than T{sub NAT}. (orig.)

  9. On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chiodo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere with regard to temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 \\unit{yr} solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple linear regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. The novel regression approach shows that most of the apparent solar-induced lower-stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. This is caused by the alignment of these eruptions with periods of high solar activity. While it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr simulation. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambiguously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

  10. Extraction of wind and temperature information from hybrid 4D-Var assimilation of stratospheric ozone using NAVGEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.

    2018-03-01

    Extraction of wind and temperature information from stratospheric ozone assimilation is examined within the context of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) hybrid 4-D variational assimilation (4D-Var) data assimilation (DA) system. Ozone can improve the wind and temperature through two different DA mechanisms: (1) through the flow-of-the-day ensemble background error covariance that is blended together with the static background error covariance and (2) via the ozone continuity equation in the tangent linear model and adjoint used for minimizing the cost function. All experiments assimilate actual conventional data in order to maintain a similar realistic troposphere. In the stratosphere, the experiments assimilate simulated ozone and/or radiance observations in various combinations. The simulated observations are constructed for a case study based on a 16-day cycling truth experiment (TE), which is an analysis with no stratospheric observations. The impact of ozone on the analysis is evaluated by comparing the experiments to the TE for the last 6 days, allowing for a 10-day spin-up. Ozone assimilation benefits the wind and temperature when data are of sufficient quality and frequency. For example, assimilation of perfect (no applied error) global hourly ozone data constrains the stratospheric wind and temperature to within ˜ 2 m s-1 and ˜ 1 K. This demonstrates that there is dynamical information in the ozone distribution that can potentially be used to improve the stratosphere. This is particularly important for the tropics, where radiance observations have difficulty constraining wind due to breakdown of geostrophic balance. Global ozone assimilation provides the largest benefit when the hybrid blending coefficient is an intermediate value (0.5 was used in this study), rather than 0.0 (no ensemble background error covariance) or 1.0 (no static background error covariance), which is consistent with other hybrid DA studies. When perfect global ozone is

  11. Extraction of wind and temperature information from hybrid 4D-Var assimilation of stratospheric ozone using NAVGEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Allen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Extraction of wind and temperature information from stratospheric ozone assimilation is examined within the context of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM hybrid 4-D variational assimilation (4D-Var data assimilation (DA system. Ozone can improve the wind and temperature through two different DA mechanisms: (1 through the flow-of-the-day ensemble background error covariance that is blended together with the static background error covariance and (2 via the ozone continuity equation in the tangent linear model and adjoint used for minimizing the cost function. All experiments assimilate actual conventional data in order to maintain a similar realistic troposphere. In the stratosphere, the experiments assimilate simulated ozone and/or radiance observations in various combinations. The simulated observations are constructed for a case study based on a 16-day cycling truth experiment (TE, which is an analysis with no stratospheric observations. The impact of ozone on the analysis is evaluated by comparing the experiments to the TE for the last 6 days, allowing for a 10-day spin-up. Ozone assimilation benefits the wind and temperature when data are of sufficient quality and frequency. For example, assimilation of perfect (no applied error global hourly ozone data constrains the stratospheric wind and temperature to within ∼ 2 m s−1 and ∼ 1 K. This demonstrates that there is dynamical information in the ozone distribution that can potentially be used to improve the stratosphere. This is particularly important for the tropics, where radiance observations have difficulty constraining wind due to breakdown of geostrophic balance. Global ozone assimilation provides the largest benefit when the hybrid blending coefficient is an intermediate value (0.5 was used in this study, rather than 0.0 (no ensemble background error covariance or 1.0 (no static background error covariance, which is consistent with other hybrid DA studies. When

  12. Stratospheric cooling and polar ozone loss due to H2 emissions of a global hydrogen economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feck, T.; Grooß, J.-U.; Riese, M.; Vogel, B.

    2009-04-01

    "Green" hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H2) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H2 that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H2 can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H2 burden. Across the tropical tropopause H2 reaches the stratosphere where it is oxidised and forms water vapour (H2O). This causes increased IR-emissions into space and hence a cooling of the stratosphere. Both effects, the increase of stratospheric H2O and the cooling, enhances the potential of chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosol and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which increase polar ozone destruction. Hence a global hydrogen economy could provoke polar ozone loss and could lead to a substantial delay of the current projected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Our investigations show that even if 90% of the current global fossil primary energy input could be replaced by hydrogen and approximately 9.5% of the product gas would leak to the atmosphere, the ozone loss would be increased between 15 to 26 Dobson Units (DU) if the stratospheric CFC loading would retain unchanged. A consistency check of the used approximation methods with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) shows that this additional ozone loss can probably be treated as an upper limit. Towards more realistic future H2 leakage rate assumptions (< 3%) the additional ozone loss would be rather small (? 10 DU). However, in all cases the full damage would only occur if stratospheric CFC-levels would retain unchanged. Due to the CFC-prohibition as a result of the Montreal Protocol the forecasts suggest a decline of the stratospheric CFC loading about 50% until 2050. In this case our calculations

  13. Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

    2014-12-01

    The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This

  14. Unexpected variations in the triple oxygen isotope composition of stratospheric carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegel, Aaron A.; Cole, Amanda S.; Hoag, Katherine J.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Schauffler, Sue M.; Boering, Kristie A.

    2013-10-01

    We report observations of stratospheric CO2 that reveal surprisingly large anomalous enrichments in 17O that vary systematically with latitude, altitude, and season. The triple isotope slopes reached 1.95 ± 0.05(1σ) in the middle stratosphere and 2.22 ± 0.07 in the Arctic vortex versus 1.71 ± 0.03 from previous observations and a remarkable factor of 4 larger than the mass-dependent value of 0.52. Kinetics modeling of laboratory measurements of photochemical ozone-CO2 isotope exchange demonstrates that non-mass-dependent isotope effects in ozone formation alone quantitatively account for the 17O anomaly in CO2 in the laboratory, resolving long-standing discrepancies between models and laboratory measurements. Model sensitivities to hypothetical mass-dependent isotope effects in reactions involving O3, O(1D), or CO2 and to an empirically derived temperature dependence of the anomalous kinetic isotope effects in ozone formation then provide a conceptual framework for understanding the differences in the isotopic composition and the triple isotope slopes between the laboratory and the stratosphere and between different regions of the stratosphere. This understanding in turn provides a firmer foundation for the diverse biogeochemical and paleoclimate applications of 17O anomalies in tropospheric CO2, O2, mineral sulfates, and fossil bones and teeth, which all derive from stratospheric CO2.

  15. A global analysis of the ozone deficit in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Allen, Mark

    1993-01-01

    The global measurements of temperature, ozone, water vapor, and nitrogen dioxide acquired by the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS), supplemented by a precomputed distribution of chlorine monoxide, are used to test the balance between odd oxygen production and loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. An efficient photochemical equilibrium model, whose validity is ascertained by comparison with the results from a fully time-dependent one-dimensional model at selected latitudes, is used in the calculations. The computed ozone abundances are systematically lower than observations for May 1-7, 1979, which suggests, contrary to the conclusions of other recent studies, a real problem in model simulations of stratospheric ozone.

  16. Evaluation of the Cloud Fields in the UK Met Office HadGEM3-UKCA Model Using the CCCM Satellite Data Product to Advance Our Understanding of the Influence of Clouds on Tropospheric Composition and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varma, Sunil; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; White, James

    2016-01-01

    To determine the role of clouds in driving inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability of trace gases in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with a particular focus on the importance of cloud modification of photolysis. To evaluate the cloud fields and their vertical distribution in the HadGEM3 model utilizing CCCM, a unique 3-D cloud data product merged from multiple A-Train satellites (CERES, CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS) developed at the NASA Langley Research Center.

  17. Stratospheric ozone measurements at Arosa (Switzerland): history and scientific relevance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staehelin, Johannes; Viatte, Pierre; Stübi, Rene; Tummon, Fiona; Peter, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Climatic Observatory (LKO) in Arosa (Switzerland), marking the beginning of the world's longest series of total (or column) ozone measurements. They were driven by the recognition that atmospheric ozone is important for human health, as well as by scientific curiosity about what was, at the time, an ill characterised atmospheric trace gas. From around the mid-1950s to the beginning of the 1970s studies of high atmosphere circulation patterns that could improve weather forecasting was justification for studying stratospheric ozone. In the mid-1970s, a paradigm shift occurred when it became clear that the damaging effects of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), such as long-lived chlorofluorocarbons, needed to be documented. This justified continuing the ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone. Levels of ODSs peaked around the mid-1990s as a result of a global environmental policy to protect the ozone layer, implemented through the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Consequently, chemical destruction of stratospheric ozone started to slow around the mid-1990s. To some extent, this raises the question as to whether continued ozone observation is indeed necessary. In the last decade there has been a tendency to reduce the costs associated with making ozone measurements globally including at Arosa. However, the large natural variability in ozone on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual scales complicates the capacity for demonstrating the success of the Montreal Protocol. Chemistry-climate models also predict a super-recovery of the ozone layer at mid-latitudes in the second half of this century, i.e. an increase of ozone concentrations beyond pre-1970 levels, as a consequence of ongoing climate change. These factors, and identifying potentially unexpected stratospheric responses to climate change, support the continued need to document stratospheric ozone changes. This is particularly valuable at the Arosa site, due

  18. Evaluation of Models of the Reading Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balajthy, Ernest

    A variety of reading process models have been proposed and evaluated in reading research. Traditional approaches to model evaluation specify the workings of a system in a simplified fashion to enable organized, systematic study of the system's components. Following are several statistical methods of model evaluation: (1) empirical research on…

  19. Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV Pathfinder

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Clean Air Act mandates NASA to monitor stratospheric ozone, and stratospheric aerosol measurements are vital to our understanding of climate.  Maintaining...

  20. Efficient transport of tropospheric aerosol into the stratosphere via the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Pengfei; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Liu, Shang; Telg, Hagen; Thornberry, Troy D.; Rollins, Andrew W.; Portmann, Robert W.; Bai, Zhixuan; Ray, Eric A.; Duan, Yunjun; Pan, Laura L.; Toon, Owen B.; Bian, Jianchun; Gao, Ru-Shan

    2017-07-01

    An enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the June-September period of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) was recently identified using satellite observations. Its sources and climate impact are presently not well-characterized. To improve understanding of this phenomenon, we made in situ aerosol measurements during summer 2015 from Kunming, China, then followed with a modeling study to assess the global significance. The in situ measurements revealed a robust enhancement in aerosol concentration that extended up to 2 km above the tropopause. A climate model simulation demonstrates that the abundant anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions from Asia coupled with rapid vertical transport associated with monsoon convection leads to significant particle formation in the upper troposphere within the ASM anticyclone. These particles subsequently spread throughout the entire Northern Hemispheric (NH) lower stratosphere and contribute significantly (˜15%) to the NH stratospheric column aerosol surface area on an annual basis. This contribution is comparable to that from the sum of small volcanic eruptions in the period between 2000 and 2015. Although the ASM contribution is smaller than that from tropical upwelling (˜35%), we find that this region is about three times as efficient per unit area and time in populating the NH stratosphere with aerosol. With a substantial amount of organic and sulfur emissions in Asia, the ASM anticyclone serves as an efficient smokestack venting aerosols to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. As economic growth continues in Asia, the relative importance of Asian emissions to stratospheric aerosol is likely to increase.

  1. Sources and sinks of stratospheric water vapor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1979-11-01

    A tutorial review of the understanding of stratospheric H 2 O and the processes controlling it is presented. Paradoxes posed by currently available observational data are cited and suggestions made as to how they might be resolved. Such resolution appears to require: that the bulk of our current data provides unrepresentative and misleading vertical and latitudinal H 2 O gradients immediately downstream from the tropical tropopause; and, that there exists within the troposphere a mechanism different from or in addition to the tropical tropopause cold trap for drying air to the mixing ratios found in the lower stratosphere. Satisfaction of these requirements will reconcile much heretofore puzzling observational data and will obviate the necessity for a stratospheric sink for H 2 O

  2. STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND WATER LOSS FROM MOIST GREENHOUSE ATMOSPHERES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasting, James F.; Kopparapu, Ravi K. [Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801 (United States); Chen, Howard, E-mail: jfk4@psu.edu, E-mail: hwchen@bu.edu [Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave., Boston, MA 02215 (United States)

    2015-11-01

    A radiative-convective climate model is used to calculate stratospheric temperatures and water vapor concentrations for ozone-free atmospheres warmer than that of modern Earth. Cold, dry stratospheres are predicted at low surface temperatures, in agreement with recent 3D calculations. However, at surface temperatures above 350 K, the stratosphere warms and water vapor becomes a major upper atmospheric constituent, allowing water to be lost by photodissociation and hydrogen escape. Hence, a moist greenhouse explanation for loss of water from Venus, or some exoplanet receiving a comparable amount of stellar radiation, remains a viable hypothesis. Temperatures in the upper parts of such atmospheres are well below those estimated for a gray atmosphere, and this factor should be taken into account when performing inverse climate calculations to determine habitable zone boundaries using 1D models.

  3. STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND WATER LOSS FROM MOIST GREENHOUSE ATMOSPHERES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasting, James F.; Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Chen, Howard

    2015-01-01

    A radiative-convective climate model is used to calculate stratospheric temperatures and water vapor concentrations for ozone-free atmospheres warmer than that of modern Earth. Cold, dry stratospheres are predicted at low surface temperatures, in agreement with recent 3D calculations. However, at surface temperatures above 350 K, the stratosphere warms and water vapor becomes a major upper atmospheric constituent, allowing water to be lost by photodissociation and hydrogen escape. Hence, a moist greenhouse explanation for loss of water from Venus, or some exoplanet receiving a comparable amount of stellar radiation, remains a viable hypothesis. Temperatures in the upper parts of such atmospheres are well below those estimated for a gray atmosphere, and this factor should be taken into account when performing inverse climate calculations to determine habitable zone boundaries using 1D models

  4. Simulating the Snowball Stratosphere and Its Influence On CO2 Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, R. J.; Shaw, T.; Abbot, D. S.

    2017-12-01

    According to the snowball Earth hypothesis, a large quantity of CO2 must build up during an event in order to cause eventual deglaciation. One prediction of this model is a depletion in atmospheric oxygen-17 as a result of stratospheric chemical reactions, which has been observed in preserved barite minerals. This represents one of the most dramatic and compelling pieces of evidence in support of the snowball Earth hypothesis. The inference of anomalous atmospheric oxygen-17 based on measurements of barite minerals, however, was made by assuming that the stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange rate and mixing within the stratosphere were the same as the present. In this contribution we test these assumptions with simulations of modern and snowball atmospheric conditions using the global climate model ECHAM5. Our simulations are still running, but we will have results to report by December.

  5. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  6. Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

  7. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  8. Investigation of the question of a danger to the population by fallout from the stratospheric depot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Sladkovic, R.; Poetzl, K.

    1975-01-01

    The self-developed evaluation programme modified for the present tasks - a programme to set up continuous isentropical trajectory analyses and to investigate the tropopause fine structure for the determination of the climatology of the intrusion of stratospheric (contaminated) air into the troposphere and its transport to a point of the earth's surface in the temperate latitudes, is fully efficient. It does not merely determine trivial cases with direct sinking from the lower stratoshere to the measuring station (pure adiabatic case), but cases of non-adiabatic mixture processes can also be described by using several trajectories corresponding with one another. The method of cross-section and longitudinal section analyses gives the data necessary for the description of the intrusion of stratospheric air through the tropopause with sufficient accuracy. Based on the knowledge obtained sofar, a scheme to predict stratospheric intrusions has been set up and experimentally applied. The very first results are already promising. (orig.) [de

  9. First Polarimetric GNSS-R Measurements from a Stratospheric Flight over Boreal Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Carreno-Luengo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The first-ever dual-frequency multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite Systems Reflectometry (GNSS-R polarimetric measurements over boreal forests and lakes from the stratosphere are presented. Data were collected during the European Space Agency (ESA sponsored Balloon Experiments for University Students (BEXUS 19 stratospheric balloon experiment using the P(Y and C/A Reflect Ometer (PYCARO instrument operated in closed-loop mode. Maps of the polarimetric ratio for L1 and L2 Global Positioning System (GPS and GLObal Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS, and for E1 Galileo signals are derived from the float phase at 27,000 m height, and the specular points are geolocalized on the Earth’s surface. Polarimetric ratio ( maps over boreal forests are shown to be in the range 2–16 dB for the different GNSS codes. This result suggests that the scattering is taking place not only over the soil, but over the different forests elements as well. Additionally to the interpretation of the experimental results a theoretical investigation of the different contributions to the total reflectivity over boreal forests is performed using a bistatic scattering model. The simulated cross- (reflected Left Hand Circular Polarization LHCP and co-polar (reflected Right Hand Circular Polarization RHCP reflectivities are evaluated for the soil, the canopy, and the canopy–soil interactions for three different biomass densities: 725 trees/ha, 150 trees/ha and 72 trees/ha. For elevation angles larger than the Brewster angle, it is found that the cross-polar signal is dominant when just single reflections over the forests are evaluated, while in the case of multiple reflections the co-polar signal becomes the largest one. The first-ever dual-frequency multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite Systems Reflectometry (GNSS-R polarimetric measurements over boreal forests and lakes from the stratosphere are presented. Data were collected during the European Space

  10. Composite Materials With Uncured Epoxy Matrix Exposed in Stratosphere During NASA Stratospheric Balloon Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondyurin, Alexey; Kondyurina, Irina; Bilek, Marcela; de Groh, Kim K.

    2013-01-01

    A cassette of uncured composite materials with epoxy resin matrixes was exposed in the stratosphere (40 km altitude) over three days. Temperature variations of -76 to 32.5C and pressure up to 2.1 torr were recorded during flight. An analysis of the chemical structure of the composites showed, that the polymer matrix exposed in the stratosphere becomes crosslinked, while the ground control materials react by way of polymerization reaction of epoxy groups. The space irradiations are considered to be responsible for crosslinking of the uncured polymers exposed in the stratosphere. The composites were cured on Earth after landing. Analysis of the cured composites showed that the polymer matrix remains active under stratospheric conditions. The results can be used for predicting curing processes of polymer composites in a free space environment during an orbital space flight.

  11. On the cryogenic removal of NOy from the Antarctic polar stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Smyshlyaev

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available We review current knowledge about the annual cycle of transport of nitrogen oxides to, and removal from, the polar stratosphere, with particular attention to Antarctica where the annual winter denitrifi cation process is both regular in occurrence and severe in effect. Evidence for a large downward fl ux of NOy from the mesosphere to the stratosphere, fi rst seen briefl y in the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS data from the Arctic winter of 1978-1979, has been found during the 1990s in both satellite and ground-based observations, though this still seems to be omitted from many atmospheric models. When incorporated in the Stony Brook- St. Petersburg two dimensional (2D transport and chemistry model, more realistic treatment of the NOy fl ux, along with sulfate transport from the mesosphere, sulfate aerosol formation where temperature is favorable, and the inclusion of a simple ion-cluster reaction, leads to good agreement with observed HNO3 formation in the mid-winter middle to upper stratosphere. To further emphasize the importance of large fl uxes of thermospheric and mesospheric NOy into the polar stratosphere, we have used observations, supplemented with model calculations, to defi ne new altitude dependent correlation curves between N2O and NOy. These are more suitable than those previously used in the literature to represent conditions within the Antarctic vortex region prior to and during denitrifi cation by Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC particles. Our NOy -N2O curves lead to a 40% increase in the average amount of NOy removed during the Antarctic winter with respect to estimates calculated using NOy-N2O curves from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS/ATLAS-3 data set.

  12. The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven; Waugh, Darryn

    2014-01-01

    Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate

  13. Satellite Detection of Orographic Gravity-wave Activity in the Winter Subtropical Stratosphere over Australia and Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckermann, S. D.; Wu, D. L.

    2012-01-01

    Orographic gravity-wave (OGW) parameterizations in models produce waves over subtropical mountain ranges in Australia and Africa that propagate into the stratosphere during austral winter and deposit momentum, affecting weather and climate. Satellite sensors have measured stratospheric GWs for over a decade, yet find no evidence of these waves. So are parameterizations failing here? Here we argue that the short wavelengths of subtropical OGWs place them near or below the detection limits of satellite sensors. To test this hypothesis, we reanalyze nine years of stratospheric radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua satellite during austral winter, applying new averaging techniques to maximize signal-to-noise and improve thresholds for OGW detection. Deep climatological enhancements in stratospheric OGW variance over specific mountain ranges in Australia and southern Africa are revealed for the first time, which exhibit temporal and vertical variations consistent with predicted OGW responses to varying background winds.

  14. Climatology of the northern hemisphere stratosphere derived from Berlin analyses. Pt. 1. Monthly means

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawson, S; Labitzke, K; Lenschow, R; Naujokat, B; Rajewski, B; Wiesner, M; Wohlfart, R C

    1933-01-01

    This work presents a climatology of the northern hemisphere lower and middle stratosphere derived from daily radiosonde observations subjectively analysed in the Stratospheric Research Group of the 'Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin'. Previous climatologies from these data were presented by Labitzke (1972), van Loon et al. (1972), and by Labitzke and Goretzki (1982). Although some more recent climatological fields have been presented in several works by members of the group, no complete atlas has been compiled for some time. The work is intended to serve as a reference for people interested in the stratosphere and, particularly, the climate analysis and modelling communities, which require contemporary analyses of the available data in order to interpret their products. In this first part of the climatological atlas, monthly mean data are presented. (orig./KW)

  15. Climatology of the northern hemisphere stratosphere derived from Berlin analyses. Pt. 1. Monthly means

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pawson, S.; Labitzke, K.; Lenschow, R.; Naujokat, B.; Rajewski, B.; Wiesner, M.; Wohlfart, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    This work presents a climatology of the northern hemisphere lower and middle stratosphere derived from daily radiosonde observations subjectively analysed in the Stratospheric Research Group of the 'Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin'. Previous climatologies from these data were presented by Labitzke (1972), van Loon et al. (1972), and by Labitzke and Goretzki (1982). Although some more recent climatological fields have been presented in several works by members of the group, no complete atlas has been compiled for some time. The work is intended to serve as a reference for people interested in the stratosphere and, particularly, the climate analysis and modelling communities, which require contemporary analyses of the available data in order to interpret their products. In this first part of the climatological atlas, monthly mean data are presented. (orig./KW)

  16. Capturing the Stratosphere’s Influence on Seasonal and Intraseasonal Predictability in a State-of-the-Art Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    NRL water vapor chemistry scheme of McCormack et al. (2008). The new scheme uses updated photochemical equilibrium states and chemical production ...replenished through production via methane oxidation. The new code has been extensively tested in the single column model, was ported to NAVGEM and...tested (see below), and is currently in the process of being fully intergrated into the developmental NAVGEM code for use by NRL’s entire NAVGEM

  17. Stratospheric tritium sampling. Final progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, A.S.; Oestlund, H.G.

    1985-09-01

    Stratospheric tritium sampling was part of Project Airstream (sponsored by the US Department of Energy) between 1975 and 1983. Data from the final deployment in November 1983 are reported here, and the results of the 9 years of effort are summarized. 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Stratospheric ethane on Neptune - Comparison of groundbased and Voyager IRIS retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostiuk, Theodor; Romani, Paul; Espenak, Fred; Bezard, Bruno

    1992-01-01

    Near-simultaneous ground and spacecraft measurements of 12-micron ethane emission spectra during the Voyager encounter with Neptune have furnished bases for the determination of stratospheric ethane abundance and the testing and constraining of Neptune methane-photochemistry models. The ethane retrievals were sensitive to the thermal profile used. Contribution functions for warm thermal profiles peaked at higher altitudes, as expected, with the heterodyne functions covering lower-pressure regions. Both constant- and nonconstant-with-height profiles remain candidate distributions for Neptune's stratospheric ethane.

  19. Stratospheric chlorine injection by volcanic eruptions - HCl scavenging and implications for ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabazadeh, A.; Turco, R. P.

    1993-01-01

    Because the output of volatile chlorine during a major volcanic event can greatly exceed the annual anthropogenic emissions of chlorine to the atmosphere, the fate of volcanic chlorine must be known. Although numerous observations have shown that volcanoes do not significantly contribute to the stratospheric chlorine burden, no quantitative explanation has been published. Hydrogen chloride (HCl) scavenging processes during the early phases of a volcanic eruption are discussed. A plume dynamics and thermodynamics model is used to show that HCl removal in condensed supercooled water can reduce HCl vapor concentrations by up to four orders of magnitude, preventing substantial stratospheric chlorine injection.

  20. Influence of Aerosol Heating on the Stratospheric Transport of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, Valentina; Oman, Luke D.; Stolarski, Richard S.

    2011-01-01

    On June 15th, 1991 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (15.1 deg. N, 120.3 Deg. E) in the Philippines injected about 20 Tg of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere, which was transformed into sulfuric acid aerosol. The large perturbation of the background aerosol caused an increase in temperature in the lower stratosphere of 2-3 K. Even though stratospheric winds climatological]y tend to hinder the air mixing between the two hemispheres, observations have shown that a large part of the SO2 emitted by Mt. Pinatubo have been transported from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. We simulate the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 global climate model, coupled to the aerosol module GOCART and the stratospheric chemistry module StratChem, to investigate the influence of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on the stratospheric transport pattern. We perform two ensembles of simulations: the first ensemble consists of runs without coupling between aerosol and radiation. In these simulations the plume of aerosols is treated as a passive tracer and the atmosphere is unperturbed. In the second ensemble of simulations aerosols and radiation are coupled. We show that the set of runs with interactive aerosol produces a larger cross-equatorial transport of the Pinatubo cloud. In our simulations the local heating perturbation caused by the sudden injection of volcanic aerosol changes the pattern of the stratospheric winds causing more intrusion of air from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, we perform simulations changing the injection height of the cloud, and study the transport of the plume resulting from the different scenarios. Comparisons of model results with SAGE II and AVHRR satellite observations will be shown.

  1. The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.; Tremblay, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anti-correlated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability in preceding winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Given this relationship and the need for better seasonal predictions of Arctic SIE, we here examine the role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability. We show that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Bering Straight and the Sea of Okhotsk in winter, the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully-coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The accompanying figure shows the composite mean sea ice concentration anomalies from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) for SSWs (N = 126, top row) and SPVs (N = 99, bottom row) for winter (a,d), spring (b,e) and summer (c,f). Consistent with previous work on the AO, we find that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving these sea ice anomalies in the three Arctic regions, noted above, are different. Our analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a non-trivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors.

  2. Stratospheric experiments on curing of composite materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudinov, Viacheslav; Kondyurin, Alexey; Svistkov, Alexander L.; Efremov, Denis; Demin, Anton; Terpugov, Viktor; Rusakov, Sergey

    2016-07-01

    Future space exploration requires a large light-weight structure for habitats, greenhouses, space bases, space factories and other constructions. A new approach enabling large-size constructions in space relies on the use of the technology of polymerization of fiber-filled composites with a curable polymer matrix applied in the free space environment on Erath orbit. In orbit, the material is exposed to high vacuum, dramatic temperature changes, plasma of free space due to cosmic rays, sun irradiation and atomic oxygen (in low Earth orbit), micrometeorite fluence, electric charging and microgravitation. The development of appropriate polymer matrix composites requires an understanding of the chemical processes of polymer matrix curing under the specific free space conditions to be encountered. The goal of the stratospheric flight experiment is an investigation of the effect of the stratospheric conditions on the uncured polymer matrix of the composite material. The unique combination of low residual pressure, high intensity UV radiation including short-wave UV component, cosmic rays and other aspects associated with solar irradiation strongly influences the chemical processes in polymeric materials. We have done the stratospheric flight experiments with uncured composites (prepreg). A balloon with payload equipped with heater, temperature/pressure/irradiation sensors, microprocessor, carrying the samples of uncured prepreg has been launched to stratosphere of 25-30 km altitude. After the flight, the samples have been tested with FTIR, gel-fraction, tensile test and DMA. The effect of cosmic radiation has been observed. The composite was successfully cured during the stratospheric flight. The study was supported by RFBR grants 12-08-00970 and 14-08-96011.

  3. Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Educational game models: conceptualization and evaluation. ... The Game Object Model (GOM), that marries educational theory and game design, forms the basis for the development of the Persona Outlining ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  4. Post-entry and volcanic contaminant abundances of zinc, copper, selenium, germanium and gallium in stratospheric micrometeorites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietmeijer, Frans J. M.

    1995-01-01

    Some fraction of Zn, Cu, Se, Ga and Ge in chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the lower stratosphere between 1981 May and 1984 June has a volcanic origin. I present a method to evaluate the extent of this unavoidable type of stratospheric contamination for individual particles. The mass-normalized abundances for Cu and Ge as a function of mass-normalized stratospheric residence time show their time-integrated stratospheric aerosol abundances. The Zn, Se and Ga abundances show a subdivision into two groups that span approximately two-year periods following the eruptions of the Mount St. Helens (1980 May) and El Chichon (1982 April) volcanoes. Elemental abundances in particles collected at the end of each two-year period indicate low, but not necessarily ambient, volcanic stratospheric abundances. Using this time-integrated baseline, I calculate the straospheric contaminant fractions in nine IDPs and show that Zn, SE and Ga abundances in chondritic IDPs derive in part from stratospheric aerosol contaminants. Post-entry elemental abundances (i.e., the amount that survived atmospheric entry heating of the IDP) show enrichments relative to the CI abundances but in a smaller number of particles than previously suggested.

  5. The EMEFS model evaluation. An interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Dennis, R.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Seilkop, S.K. [Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. [Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N. [Computer Sciences Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A. [ENSR Consulting and Engineering, Camarillo, CA (United States); Fung, C.; Misra, P.K. [Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hansen, D.A. [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Chang, J.S. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States). Atmospheric Sciences Research Center

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  6. Potential impact of carbonaceous aerosol on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and precipitation during Asian summer monsoon in a global model simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Fadnavis, Suvarna; Kalita, Gayatry; Kumar, K. Ravi; Gasparini, Blaž; Li, Jui-Lin Frank

    2017-01-01

    The model simulation shows that boundary layer aerosols are transported into the monsoon anticyclone by the strong monsoon convection from the Bay of Bengal, southern slopes of the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Doubling of emissions of both BC and OC aerosols over Southeast Asia (10° S–50° N, 65–155° E) shows that lofted aerosols produce significant warming (0.6–1 K) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) near 400–200 hPa and instability in the middle/upper troposphere. These aerosols enhance radiative heating rates (0.02–0.03 K day−1) near the tropopause. The enhanced carbonaceous aerosols alter aerosol radiative forcing (RF) at the surface by −4.74 ± 1.42 W m−2, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by +0.37 ± 0.26 W m−2 and in the atmosphere by +5.11 ± 0.83 W m−2 over the TP and Indo-Gangetic Plain region (15–35° N, 80–110° E). Atmospheric warming increases vertical velocities and thereby cloud ice in the upper troposphere. Aerosol induced anomalous warming over the TP facilitates the relative strengthening of the monsoon Hadley circulation and increases moisture inflow by strengthening the cross-equatorial monsoon jet. This increases precipitation amounts over India (1–4 mm day−1) and eastern China (0.2–2 mm day−1). These results are significant at the 99 % confidence level.

  7. Modeling the TTL at Continental Scale for a Wet Season: An Evaluation of the BRAMS Mesoscale Model Using TRO-Pico Campaign, and Measurements From Airborne and Spaceborne Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, Abhinna K.; Rivière, Emmanuel D.; Marécal, Virginie; Rysman, Jean-François; Chantal, Claud; Sèze, Geneviève; Amarouche, Nadir; Ghysels, Mélanie; Khaykin, Sergey M.; Pommereau, Jean-Pierre; Held, Gerhard; Burgalat, Jérémie; Durry, Georges

    2018-03-01

    In order to better understand the water vapor (WV) intrusion into the tropical stratosphere, a mesoscale simulation of the tropical tropopause layer using the BRAMS (Brazilian version of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)) model is evaluated for a wet season. This simulation with a horizontal grid point resolution of 20 km × 20 km cannot resolve the stratospheric overshooting convection (SOC). Its ability to reproduce other key parameters playing a role in the stratospheric WV abundance is investigated using the balloon-borne TRO-Pico campaign measurements, the upper-air soundings over Brazil, and the satellite observations by Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, Microwave Humidity Sounder, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12. The BRAMS exhibits a good ability in simulating temperature, cold-point, WV variability around the tropopause. However, the simulation is typically observed to be warmer by ˜2.0°C and wetter by ˜0.4 ppmv at the hygropause, which can be partly affiliated with the grid boundary nudging of the model by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analyses. The modeled cloud tops show a good correlation (maximum cross-correlation of ˜0.7) with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12. Furthermore, the overshooting cells detected by Microwave Humidity Sounder are observed at the locations, where 75% of the modeled cloud tops are higher than 11 km. Finally, the modeled inertia-gravity wave periodicity and wavelength are comparable with those deduced from the radio sounding measurements during TRO-Pico campaign. The good behavior of BRAMS confirms the SOC contribution in the WV abundance, and variability is of lesser importance than the large-scale processes. This simulation can be used as a reference run for upscaling the impact of SOC at a continental scale for future studies.

  8. Evaluation of a decontamination model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rippin, D.W.T.; Hanulik, J.; Schenker, E.; Ullrich, G.

    1981-02-01

    In the scale-up of a laboratory decontamination process difficulties arise due to the limited understanding of the mechanisms controlling the process. This paper contains some initial proposals which may contribute to the quantitative understanding of the chemical and physical factors which influence decontamination operations. General features required in a mathematical model to describe a fluid-solid reaction are discussed, and initial work is presented with a simple model which has had some success in describing the observed laboratory behaviour. (Auth.)

  9. The isotopic composition of methane in the stratosphere: high-altitude balloon sample measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Röckmann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The isotopic composition of stratospheric methane has been determined on a large suite of air samples from stratospheric balloon flights covering subtropical to polar latitudes and a time period of 16 yr. 154 samples were analyzed for δ13C and 119 samples for δD, increasing the previously published dataset for balloon borne samples by an order of magnitude, and more than doubling the total available stratospheric data (including aircraft samples published to date. The samples also cover a large range in mixing ratio from tropospheric values near 1800 ppb down to only 250 ppb, and the strong isotope fractionation processes accordingly increase the isotopic composition up to δ13C = −14‰ and δD = +190‰, the largest enrichments observed for atmospheric CH4 so far. When analyzing and comparing kinetic isotope effects (KIEs derived from single balloon profiles, it is necessary to take into account the residence time in the stratosphere in combination with the observed mixing ratio and isotope trends in the troposphere, and the range of isotope values covered by the individual profile. The isotopic composition of CH4 in the stratosphere is affected by both chemical and dynamical processes. This severely hampers interpretation of the data in terms of the relative fractions of the three important sink mechanisms (reaction with OH, O(1D and Cl. It is shown that a formal sink partitioning using the measured data severely underestimates the fraction removed by OH, which is likely due to the insensitivity of the measurements to the kinetic fractionation in the lower stratosphere. Full quantitative interpretation of the CH4 isotope data in terms of the three sink reactions requires a global model.

  10. Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-08-01

    Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

  11. Site descriptive modelling - strategy for integrated evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan

    2003-02-01

    The current document establishes the strategy to be used for achieving sufficient integration between disciplines in producing Site Descriptive Models during the Site Investigation stage. The Site Descriptive Model should be a multidisciplinary interpretation of geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, transport properties and ecosystems using site investigation data from deep bore holes and from the surface as input. The modelling comprise the following iterative steps, evaluation of primary data, descriptive and quantitative modelling (in 3D), overall confidence evaluation. Data are first evaluated within each discipline and then the evaluations are checked between the disciplines. Three-dimensional modelling (i.e. estimating the distribution of parameter values in space and its uncertainty) is made in a sequence, where the geometrical framework is taken from the geological model and in turn used by the rock mechanics, thermal and hydrogeological modelling etc. The three-dimensional description should present the parameters with their spatial variability over a relevant and specified scale, with the uncertainty included in this description. Different alternative descriptions may be required. After the individual discipline modelling and uncertainty assessment a phase of overall confidence evaluation follows. Relevant parts of the different modelling teams assess the suggested uncertainties and evaluate the feedback. These discussions should assess overall confidence by, checking that all relevant data are used, checking that information in past model versions is considered, checking that the different kinds of uncertainty are addressed, checking if suggested alternatives make sense and if there is potential for additional alternatives, and by discussing, if appropriate, how additional measurements (i.e. more data) would affect confidence. The findings as well as the modelling results are to be documented in a Site Description

  12. Effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boughner, R.E.

    1978-01-01

    During the past several years, much attention has been focused on the destruction of ozone by anthropogenic pollutants such as the nitrogen oxides and chlorofluoromethane. Little or no attention has been given to the influence on ozone of an increased carbon dioxide concentration for which a measurable growth has been observed. Increased carbon dioxide can directly affect ozone by perturbing atmospheric temperatures, which will alter ozone production, whose rate displays a fairly strong temperature dependence. This paper presents one-dimensional model results for the steady state ozone behavior when the CO 2 concentration is twice its ambient level which account for coupling between chemistry and temperature. When the CO 2 level doubled, the total ozone burden increased in relation to the ambient burden by 1.2--2.5%, depending on the vertical diffusion coefficient used. Above 30 km. In this region the relation variations were insensitive to the choice of diffusion coefficient. Below 30 km, ozone concentrations were smaller than the unperturbed values and were sensitive to the vertical diffusion profile in this region (10--30 km). Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere because of a reduction in ozone-producing solar radiation, which results in smaller downward ozone fluxes from the region at 25--30 km relative to the flux values for the ambient atmosphere. These offsetting changes occurring in the upper and lower stratosphere act to minimize the variation in total ozone

  13. The stratospheric ozone and the ozone layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez Jesus Antonio

    2000-01-01

    An overview is presented of the principal characteristics of the stratospheric ozone in the Earth's atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the tropics and the ozone hole over the poles. Some effects produced in the atmosphere as a consequence of the different human activities will be described, and some data on stratospheric ozone will be shown. We point out the existence of a nucleus of least ozone in the tropics, stretching from South America to central Africa, with annual mean values less than 240 DU, a value lower than in the middle latitudes and close to the mean values at the South Pole. The existence of such a minimum is confirmed by mean values from measurements made on satellites or with earthbound instruments, for different sectors in Colombia, like Medellin, Bogota and Leticia

  14. Effects of intense stratospheric ionisation events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, G.C.; McAfee, J.R.; Crutzen, P.J.

    1978-01-01

    High levels of ionising radiation in the Earth's stratosphere will lead to increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides and decreased concentrations of ozone. Changes in the surface environment will include an increased level, of biologically harmful UV radiation, caused by the ozone depletion, and a decreased level of visible solar radiation, due to the presence of major enhancements in the stratospheric concentration of nitrogen dioxide. These changes have been studied quantitatively, using the passage of the Solar System through a supernova remnant shell as an example. Some of the potential environmental changes are a substantial global cooling, abnormally dry conditions, a reduction in global photosynthesis and a large increase in the flux of atmospheric fixed nitrogen to the surface of the Earth. Such events might have been the cause of mass extinctions in the distant past. (Author)

  15. Rock mechanics models evaluation report: Draft report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    This report documents the evaluation of the thermal and thermomechanical models and codes for repository subsurface design and for design constraint analysis. The evaluation was based on a survey of the thermal and thermomechanical codes and models that are applicable to subsurface design, followed by a Kepner-Tregoe (KT) structured decision analysis of the codes and models. The end result of the KT analysis is a balanced, documented recommendation of the codes and models which are best suited to conceptual subsurface design for the salt repository. The various laws for modeling the creep of rock salt are also reviewed in this report. 37 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs

  16. Evaluation of animal models of neurobehavioral disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nordquist Rebecca E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Animal models play a central role in all areas of biomedical research. The process of animal model building, development and evaluation has rarely been addressed systematically, despite the long history of using animal models in the investigation of neuropsychiatric disorders and behavioral dysfunctions. An iterative, multi-stage trajectory for developing animal models and assessing their quality is proposed. The process starts with defining the purpose(s of the model, preferentially based on hypotheses about brain-behavior relationships. Then, the model is developed and tested. The evaluation of the model takes scientific and ethical criteria into consideration. Model development requires a multidisciplinary approach. Preclinical and clinical experts should establish a set of scientific criteria, which a model must meet. The scientific evaluation consists of assessing the replicability/reliability, predictive, construct and external validity/generalizability, and relevance of the model. We emphasize the role of (systematic and extended replications in the course of the validation process. One may apply a multiple-tiered 'replication battery' to estimate the reliability/replicability, validity, and generalizability of result. Compromised welfare is inherent in many deficiency models in animals. Unfortunately, 'animal welfare' is a vaguely defined concept, making it difficult to establish exact evaluation criteria. Weighing the animal's welfare and considerations as to whether action is indicated to reduce the discomfort must accompany the scientific evaluation at any stage of the model building and evaluation process. Animal model building should be discontinued if the model does not meet the preset scientific criteria, or when animal welfare is severely compromised. The application of the evaluation procedure is exemplified using the rat with neonatal hippocampal lesion as a proposed model of schizophrenia. In a manner congruent to

  17. Stratospheric ozone: an introduction to its study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet, M.

    1975-01-01

    An analysis is made of the various reactions in which ozone and atomic oxygen are involved in the stratosphere. At the present time, hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine compounds in the ranges parts per million, parts per billion, and parts per trillion may have significant chemical effects. In the upper stratosphere, above the ozone peak, where there is no strong departure from photochemical equilibrium conditions, the action of hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl radicals of nitrogen dioxide and chlorine monoxide on atomic oxygen and of atomic chlorine on ozone can be introduced. A precise determination of their exact effects requires knowledge of the vertical distribution of the H 2 O, CH 4 , and H 2 dissociation by reaction of these molecules with electronically excited oxygen atom O( 1 D); the ratio of the OH and HO 2 concentrations and their absolute values, which depend on insufficiently known rate coefficients; the various origins of nitric oxide production, with their vertical distributions related to latitude and season; and the various sources giving different chlorine compounds that may be dissociated in the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, below the ozone peak, there is no important photochemical production of O 3 , but there exist various possibilities of transport. The predictability of the action of chemical reactions depends strongly on important interactions between OH and HO 2 radicals with CO and NO, respectively, which affect the ratio n(OH)/n(HO 2 ) at the tropopause level; between OH and NO 2 , which lead to the formation of nitric acid with its downward transport toward the troposphere; between NO and HO 2 , which lead to NO 2 and its subsequent photodissociation; between ClO and NO, which also lead to NO 2 and become more important than the reaction of ClO with O; and between Cl and various molecules, such as CH 4 and H 2 , which lead to HCl with its downward transportation toward the troposphere

  18. Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition II: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, James G.; Toon, Owen B.

    1993-11-01

    The sudden onset of ozone depletion in the antarctic vortex set a precedent for both the time scale and the severity of global change. The Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE), staged from Punta Arenas, Chile, in 1987, established that CFCs, halons, and methyl bromide, the dominant sources of chlorine and bromine radicals in the stratosphere, control the rate of ozone destruction over the Antarctic; that the vortex is depleted in reactive nitrogen and water vapor; and that diabatic cooling during the Antarctic winter leads to subsidence within the vortex core, importing air from higher altitudes and lower latitudes. This last conclusion is based on observed dramatic distortion in the tracer fields, most notably N2O.In 1989, the first Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-I), staged from Stavanger, Norway, and using the same aircraft employed for AAOE (the NASA ER-2 and the NASA DC-8), discovered that while NOx and to some degree NOy were perturbed within the arctic vortex, there was little evidence for desiccation. Under these (in contrast to the antarctic) marginally perturbed conditions, however, ClO was found to be dramatically enhanced such that a large fraction of the available (inorganic) chlorine resided in the form of ClO and its dimer ClOOCl.This leaves two abiding issues for the northern hemisphere and the mission of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-II): (1) Will significant ozone erosion occur within the arctic vortex in the next ten years as chlorine loading in the stratosphere exceeds four parts per billion by volume? (2) Which mechanisms are responsible for the observed ozone erosion poleward of 30°N in the winter/spring northern hemisphere reported in satellite observations?

  19. Vertical sounding balloons for stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommereau, J. P.

    The use of vertical sounding balloons for stratospheric photochemistry studies is illustrated by the use of a vertical piloted gas balloon for the search of NO2 diurnal variations. It is shown that the use of montgolfieres (hot air balloons) can enhance the vertical sounding technique. Particular attention is given to a sun-heated montgolfiere and to the more sophisticated infrared montgolfiere that is able to perform three to four vertical excursions per day and to remain aloft for weeks or months.

  20. Stratospheric chlorine: Blaming it on nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taube, G.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the bitter public debate over ozone depletion has centered on the claim that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) pale into insignificance alongside natural sources of chlorine in the stratosphere. If so, goes the argument, chlorine could not be depleting ozone as atmospheric scientists claim, because the natural sources have been around since time immemorial, and the ozone layer is still there. The claim, put forward in a book by Rogelio Maduro and Ralf Schauerhammer, has since been touted by former Atomic Energy Commissioner Dixy Lee Ray and talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, and it forms the basis of much of the backlash now being felt by atmospheric scientists. The argument is simple: Maduro and Schauerhammer calculate that 600 million tons of chlorine enters the atmosphere annually from seawater, 36 million tons from volcanoes, 8.4 million tons from biomass burning, and 5 million tons from ocean biota. In contrast, CFCs account for a mere 750,000 tons of atmospheric chlorine a year. Besides disputing the numbers, scientists have both theoretical and observational bases for doubting that much of this chlorine is getting into the stratosphere, where it could affect the ozone layer. Linwood Callis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center points out one crucial problem with the argument: Chlorine from natural sources is soluble, and so it gets rained out of the lower atmosphere. CFCs, in contrast, are insoluble and inert and thus make it to the stratosphere to release their chlorine. What's more, observations of stratospheric chemistry don't support the idea that natural sources are contributing much to the chlorine there

  1. Concentrations and uncertainties of stratospheric trace species inferred from limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere data. I - Methodology and application to OH and HO2. II - Monthly averaged OH, HO2, H2O2, and HO2NO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaye, J. A.; Jackman, C. H.

    1986-01-01

    Difficulties arise in connection with the verification of multidimensional chemical models of the stratosphere. The present study shows that LIMS data, together with a photochemical equilibrium model, may be used to infer concentrations of a variety of zonally averaged trace Ox, OHx, and NOx species over much of the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, where the photochemical equilibrium assumption for HOx species breaks down, inferred concentrations should still be accurate to about a factor of 2 for OH and 2.5 for HO2. The algebraic nature of the considered model makes it possible to see easily to the first order the effect of variation of any model input parameter or its uncertainty on the inferred concontration of the HOx species and their uncertainties.

  2. Stratospheric concentrations of N2O in July 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, P.W.; Lagomarsino, R.J.; Schonberg, M.

    1977-01-01

    The first measurement of the hemispheric distribution of N 2 O concentrations in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere is reported for July 1975. This distribution is similar to those of CCl 3 F and SF 6 , although N 2 O is more stable in the stratosphere than either of the other trace gases. The inventory of N 2 O in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in July 1975 against which future observations can be compared is 136 Tg

  3. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generate their own meteorology, and thus cannot be used for comparisons with instantaneous measurements. This thesis presents the first application of a simple data assimilation method, Newtonian relaxation, to reproduce realistic synoptical conditions in a state-of-the-art middle atmosphere general circulation model, MA-ECHAM. By nudging the model's meteorology slightly towards analyzed observations from a weather forecasting system (ECMWF), we have simulated specific atmospheric processes during particular meteorological episodes, such as the 1999/2000 Arctic winter. The nudging technique is intended to interfere as little as possible with the model's own dynamics. In fact, we found that we could even limit the nudging to the troposphere, leaving the middle atmosphere entirely free. In that setup, the model realistically reproduced many aspects of the instantaneous meteorology of the middle atmosphere, such as the unusually early major warming and breakup of the 2002 Antarctic vortex. However, we found that this required careful interpolation of the nudging data, and a correct choice of nudging parameters. We obtained the best results when we first projected the nudging data onto the model's normal modes so that we could filter out the (spurious) fast components. In a four-year simulation, for which we also introduced an additional nudging of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, we found that the model reproduced much of the interannual variability throughout the

  4. Photochemistry, mixing and transport in Jupiter's stratosphere constrained by Cassini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hue, V.; Hersant, F.; Cavalié, T.; Dobrijevic, M.; Sinclair, J. A.

    2018-06-01

    In this work, we aim at constraining the diffusive and advective transport processes in Jupiter's stratosphere, using Cassini/CIRS observations published by Nixon et al. (2007,2010). The Cassini-Huygens flyby of Jupiter on December 2000 provided the highest spatially resolved IR observations of Jupiter so far, with the CIRS instrument. The IR spectrum contains the fingerprints of several atmospheric constituents and allows probing the tropospheric and stratospheric composition. In particular, the abundances of C2H2 and C2H6, the main compounds produced by methane photochemistry, can be retrieved as a function of latitude in the pressure range at which CIRS is sensitive to. CIRS observations suggest a very different meridional distribution for these two species. This is difficult to reconcile with their photochemical histories, which are thought to be tightly coupled to the methane photolysis. While the overall abundance of C2H2 decreases with latitude, C2H6 becomes more abundant at high latitudes. In this work, a new 2D (latitude-altitude) seasonal photochemical model of Jupiter is developed. The model is used to investigate whether the addition of stratospheric transport processes, such as meridional diffusion and advection, are able to explain the latitudinal behavior of C2H2 and C2H6. We find that the C2H2 observations are fairly well reproduced without meridional diffusion. Adding meridional diffusion to the model provides an improved agreement with the C2H6 observations by flattening its meridional distribution, at the cost of a degradation of the fit to the C2H2 distribution. However, meridional diffusion alone cannot produce the observed increase with latitude of the C2H6 abundance. When adding 2D advective transport between roughly 30 mbar and 0.01 mbar, with upwelling winds at the equator and downwelling winds at high latitudes, we can, for the first time, reproduce the C2H6 abundance increase with latitude. In parallel, the fit to the C2H2 distribution is

  5. Millimeter wave spectroscopic measurements of stratospheric and mesospheric constituents over the Italian Alps: stratospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Romaniello

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of rotational lines emitted by middle atmospheric trace gases have been carried out from the Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9°N, 7.7°E, elev. 3500 m by means of a Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS. Observations of species such as O3, HNO3, CO, N2O, HCN, and HDO took place during 4 winter periods, from February 2004 to March 2007, for a total of 116 days of measurements grouped in about 18 field campaigns. By studying the pressure-broadened shape of emission lines the vertical distribution of the observed constituents is retrieved within an altitude range of ?17-75 km, constrained by the 600 MHz pass band and the 65 kHz spectral resolution of the back-end spectrometer. This work discusses the behavior of stratospheric O3 during the entire period of operation at Testa Grigia. Mid-latitude O3 columnar content as estimated using GBMS measurements can vary by large amounts over a period of very few days, with the largest variations observed in December 2005, February 2006, and March 2006, confirming that the northern winter of 2005-2006 was characterized by a particularly intense planetary wave activity. The largest rapid variation from maximum to minimum O3 column values over Testa Grigia took place in December 2006 and reached a relative value of 72% with respect to the average column content for that period. During most GBMS observation times much of the variability is concentrated in the column below 20 km, with tropospheric weather systems and advection of tropical tropospheric air into the lower stratosphere over Testa Grigia having a large impact on the observed variations in column contents. Nonetheless, a wide variability is also found in middle stratospheric GBMS O3 measurements, as expected for mid-latitude ozone. We find that O3 mixing ratios at ?32 km are very well correlated with the solar illumination experienced by air masses over the previous ?15 days, showing that already at 32 km

  6. Individual model evaluation and probabilistic weighting of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1994-01-01

    This note stresses the importance of trying to assess the accuracy of each model individually. Putting a Bayesian probability distribution on a population of models faces conceptual and practical complications, and apparently can come only after the work of evaluating the individual models. Moreover, the primary issue is open-quotes How good is this modelclose quotes? Therefore, the individual evaluations are first in both chronology and importance. They are not easy, but some ideas are given here on how to perform them

  7. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  8. Evaluation of green house gas emissions models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The objective of the project is to evaluate the GHG emissions models used by transportation agencies and industry leaders. Factors in the vehicle : operating environment that may affect modal emissions, such as, external conditions, : vehicle fleet c...

  9. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  10. An Investigation of Multi-Satellite Stratospheric Measurements on Tropospheric Weather Predictions over Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Min

    The troposphere and stratosphere are the two closest atmospheric layers to the Earth's surface. These two layers are separated by the so-called tropopause. On one hand, these two layers are largely distinguished, on the other hand, lots of evidences proved that connections are also existed between these two layers via various dynamical and chemical feedbacks. Both tropospheric and stratospheric waves can propagate through the tropopause and affect the down streams, despite the fact that this propagation of waves is relatively weaker than the internal interactions in both atmospheric layers. Major improvements have been made in numerical weather predictions (NWP) via data assimilation (DA) in the past 30 years. From optimal interpolation to variational methods and Kalman Filter, great improvements are also made in the development of DA technology. The availability of assimilating satellite radiance observation and the increasing amount of satellite measurements enabled the generation of better atmospheric initials for both global and regional NWP systems. The selection of DA schemes is critical for regional NWP systems. The performance of three major data assimilation (3D-Var, Hybrid, and EnKF) schemes on regional weather forecasts over the continental United States during winter and summer is investigated. Convergence rate in the variational methods can be slightly accelerated especially in summer by the inclusion of ensembles. When the regional model lid is set at 50-mb, larger improvements (10˜20%) in the initials are obtained over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Better forecast skills (˜10%) are obtained in all three DA schemes in summer. Among these three DA schemes, slightly better (˜1%) forecast skills are obtained in Hybrid configuration than 3D-Var. Overall better forecast skills are obtained in summer via EnKF scheme. An extra 22% skill in predicting summer surface pressure but 10% less skills in winter are given by EnKF when compared to 3D

  11. Balance of the tropospheric ozone and its relation to stratospheric intrusions indicated by cosmogenic radionuclides. Part 13. Annual report, 1 February 1982-31 January 1983

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, R.; Kanter, H.J.; Jaeger, H.; Munzert, K.

    1985-06-01

    A statistical evaluation of tropospheric ozone concentrations in the air obtained at 3 different levels is presented from data covering 1977 to 1984. Annual and interannual variations are used to project a trend. To clarify the climatology of the stratospheric exchange, the measuring series of cosmogenic radionuclides Be7, P32, P33 covering the period 1970 through 1981 are statistically analyzed with regard to the ozone concentration recorded on the Zugspitze. The statistics of stratospheric intrusions is shown and the stratospheric residence time is estimated. Effects of the eruption of volcano El Chichon in April 1982 on the concentration of the stratospheric aerosol are documented. The time variation of the concentration of the stratospheric aerosol is studied with consideration of the stratospheric circulation. The noted effects are weighed by a comparison with earlier volcanic eruptions. First results of CO 2 recordings in the lower stratosphere are presented. Based on CO 2 recording series from two different levels (740 m and 1780 m a.s.1) from the years 1978 to 1980, systematic differences are shown as a function of height. The question of sources and sinks is discussed to assess the contribution from anthropogenic sources

  12. Metrics for Evaluation of Student Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelanek, Radek

    2015-01-01

    Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

  13. THERMAL AND CHEMICAL STRUCTURE VARIATIONS IN TITAN'S STRATOSPHERE DURING THE CASSINI MISSION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bampasidis, Georgios; Coustenis, A.; Vinatier, S. [Laboratoire d' Etudes Spatiales et d' Instrumentation en Astrophysique (LESIA), Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Univ. Paris-Diderot, 5, place Jules Janssen, F-92195 Meudon Cedex (France); Achterberg, R. K. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Lavvas, P. [GSMA, Universite Reims Champagne-Ardenne, F-51687 Reims Cedex 2 (France); Nixon, C. A.; Jennings, D. E.; Flasar, F. M.; Carlson, R. C.; Romani, P. N.; Guandique, E. A. [Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Teanby, N. A. [School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ (United Kingdom); Moussas, X.; Preka-Papadema, P.; Stamogiorgos, S., E-mail: gbabasid@phys.uoa.gr [Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimioupolis, GR 15783 Zographos, Athens (Greece)

    2012-12-01

    We have developed a line-by-line Atmospheric Radiative Transfer for Titan code that includes the most recent laboratory spectroscopic data and haze descriptions relative to Titan's stratosphere. We use this code to model Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer data taken during the numerous Titan flybys from 2006 to 2012 at surface-intercepting geometry in the 600-1500 cm{sup -1} range for latitudes from 50 Degree-Sign S to 50 Degree-Sign N. We report variations in temperature and chemical composition in the stratosphere during the Cassini mission, before and after the Northern Spring Equinox (NSE). We find indication for a weakening of the temperature gradient with warming of the stratosphere and cooling of the lower mesosphere. In addition, we infer precise concentrations for the trace gases and their main isotopologues and find that the chemical composition in Titan's stratosphere varies significantly with latitude during the 6 years investigated here, with increased mixing ratios toward the northern latitudes. In particular, we monitor and quantify the amplitude of a maximum enhancement of several gases observed at northern latitudes up to 50 Degree-Sign N around mid-2009, at the time of the NSE. We find that this rise is followed by a rapid decrease in chemical inventory in 2010 probably due to a weakening north polar vortex with reduced lateral mixing across the vortex boundary.

  14. High latitude stratospheric electrical measurements in fair and foul weather under various solar conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holzworth, R.H.

    1981-01-01

    Stratospheric electric field and conductivity measurements during a wide variety of weather and solar conditions are presented. These data are all from high latitude sites in the months of either April or August. The vector electric field is determined by orthogonal double probes connected through high impedance inputs to differential electrometers. The direct conductivity measurement involves determining the relaxation time constant of the medium after refloating a shorted pair of separated probes. Vertical electric field data from several balloon flights with average duration of 18 h at ceiling in fair weather are shown to be well modeled by a simple exponential altitude dependent equation. Examples of solar flare and magnetospheric effects on stratospheric electric fields are shown. Data collected over electrified clouds and thunderstorms are presented along with a discussion of the thunderstorm related electric currents. Lightning stroke signatures in the stratosphere during a large thunderstorm are identified in the electric field data. Current surges through the stratosphere due to DC currents as well as the sferic are calculated. In nearly 1000 h of balloon data no direct solar influence is identified in these data except during major flares. (author)

  15. Detection and mapping of polar stratospheric clouds using limb scattering observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. von Savigny

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based measurements of Visible/NIR limb-scattered solar radiation are well suited for the detection and mapping of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs. This publication describes a method to detect PCSs from limb scattering observations with the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY on the European Space Agency's Envisat spacecraft. The method is based on a color-index approach and requires a priori knowledge of the stratospheric background aerosol loading in order to avoid false PSC identifications by stratospheric background aerosol. The method is applied to a sample data set including the 2003 PSC season in the Southern Hemisphere. The PSCs are correlated with coincident UKMO model temperature data, and with very few exceptions, the detected PSCs occur at temperatures below 195–198 K. Monthly averaged PSC descent rates are about 1.5 km/month for the −50° S to −75° S latitude range and assume a maximum between August and September with a value of about 2.5 km/month. The main cause of the PSC descent is the slow descent of the lower stratospheric temperature minimum.

  16. Effects of Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfield, Joan E.

    2002-01-01

    The effects of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer associated with the Mt. Pinatubo volcano and future volcanic eruptions on the recovery of the ozone layer is studied with an interactive two-dimensional photochemical model. The time varying chlorine loading and the stratospheric cooling due to increasing carbon dioxide have been taken into account. The computed ozone and temperature changes associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 agree well with observations. Long model runs out to the year 2050 have been carried out, in which volcanoes having the characteristics of the Mount Pinatubo volcano were erupted in the model at 10-year intervals starting in the year 2010. Compared to a non-volcanic run using background aerosol loading, transient reductions of globally averaged column ozone of 2-3 percent were computed as a result of each of these eruptions, with the ozone recovering to that computed for the non-volcanic case in about 5 years after the eruption. Computed springtime Arctic column ozone losses of from 10 to 18 percent also recovered to the non-volcanic case within 5 years. These results suggest that the long-term recovery of ozone would not be strongly affected by infrequent volcanic eruptions with a sulfur loading approximating Mt. Pinatubo. Sensitivity studies in which the Arctic lower stratosphere was forced to be 4 K and 10 K colder resulted in transient ozone losses of which also recovered to the non-volcanic case in 5 years. A case in which a volcano five times Mt. Pinatubo was erupted in the year 2010 led to maximum springtime column ozone losses of 45 percent which took 10 years to recover to the background case. Finally, in order to simulate a situation in which frequent smaller volcanic eruptions result in increasing the background sulfate loading, a simulation was made in which the background aerosol was increased by 10 percent per year. This resulted in a delay of the recovery of column ozone to 1980 values of more than 10 years.

  17. Observed temporal evolution of global mean age of stratospheric air for the 2002 to 2010 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Stiller

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available An extensive observational data set, consisting of more than 106 SF6 vertical profiles from MIPAS measurements distributed over the whole globe has been condensed into monthly zonal means of mean age of air for the period September 2002 to January 2010, binned at 10° latitude and 1–2 km altitude. The data were analysed with respect to their temporal variation by fitting a regression model consisting of a constant and a linear increase term, 2 proxies for the QBO variation, sinusoidal terms for the seasonal and semi-annual variation and overtones for the correction of the shapes to the observed data set. The impact of subsidence of mesospheric SF6-depleted air and in-mixing into non-polar latitudes on mid-latitudinal absolute age of air and its linear increase was assessed and found to be small.

    The linear increase of mean age of stratospheric air was found to be positive and partly larger than the trend derived by Engel et al. (2009 for most of the Northern mid-latitudes, the middle stratosphere in the tropics, and parts of the Southern mid-latitudes, as well as for the Southern polar upper stratosphere. Multi-year decrease of age of air was found for the lowermost and the upper stratospheric tropics, for parts of Southern mid-latitudes, and for the Northern polar regions. Analysis of the amplitudes and phases of the seasonal variation shed light on the coupling of stratospheric regions to each other. In particular, the Northern mid-latitude stratosphere is well coupled to the tropics, while the Northern lowermost mid-latitudinal stratosphere is decoupled, confirming the separation of the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation from the deep branch. We suggest an overall increased tropical upwelling, together with weakening of mixing barriers, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, as a hypothetical model to explain the observed pattern of linear multi-year increase/decrease, and amplitudes

  18. An evaluation of BPMN modeling tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.; Reijers, H.A.; Dijkman, R.M.; Mendling, J.; Weidlich, M.

    2010-01-01

    Various BPMN modeling tools are available and it is close to impossible to understand their functional differences without simply trying them out. This paper presents an evaluation framework and presents the outcomes of its application to a set of five BPMN modeling tools. We report on various

  19. Evaluation of constitutive models for crushed salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callahan, G.D.; Loken, M.C.; Hurtado, L.D.; Hansen, F.D.

    1996-01-01

    Three constitutive models are recommended as candidates for describing the deformation of crushed salt. These models are generalized to three-dimensional states of stress to include the effects of mean and deviatoric stress and modified to include effects of temperature, grain size, and moisture content. A database including hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and southeastern New Mexico salt is used to determine material parameters for the models. To evaluate the capability of the models, parameter values obtained from fitting the complete database are used to predict the individual tests. Finite element calculations of a WIPP shaft with emplaced crushed salt demonstrate the model predictions

  20. Modeling for Green Supply Chain Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Falatoonitoosi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Green supply chain management (GSCM has become a practical approach to develop environmental performance. Under strict regulations and stakeholder pressures, enterprises need to enhance and improve GSCM practices, which are influenced by both traditional and green factors. This study developed a causal evaluation model to guide selection of qualified suppliers by prioritizing various criteria and mapping causal relationships to find effective criteria to improve green supply chain. The aim of the case study was to model and examine the influential and important main GSCM practices, namely, green logistics, organizational performance, green organizational activities, environmental protection, and green supplier evaluation. In the case study, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to test the developed model. The result of the case study shows only “green supplier evaluation” and “green organizational activities” criteria of the model are in the cause group and the other criteria are in the effect group.

  1. Cassini/CIRS Observations of Water Vapor in Titan's Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjoraker, Gordon L.; Achterberg, R. K.; Anderson, C. M.; Samuelson, R. E.; Carlson, R. C.; Jennings, D. E.

    2008-01-01

    The Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) on the Cassini spacecraft has obtained spectra of Titan during most of the 44 flybys of the Cassini prime mission. Water vapor on Titan was first detected using whole-disk observations from the Infrared Space Observatory (Coustenis et al 1998, Astron. Astrophys. 336, L85-L89). CIRS data permlt the retrieval of the latitudinal variation of water on Titan and some limited information on its vertical profile. Emission lines of H2O on Titan are very weak in the CIRS data. Thus, large spectral averages as well as improvements in calibration are necessary to detect water vapor. Water abundances were retrieved in nadir spectra at 55 South, the Equator, and at 19 North. Limb spectra of the Equator were also modeled to constrain the vertical distribution of water. Stratospheric temperatures in the 0.5 - 4.0 mbar range were obtained by inverting spectra of CH4 in the v4 band centered at 1304/cm. The temperature in the lower stratosphere (4 - 20 mbar) was derived from fitting pure rotation lines of CH4 between 80 and 160/cm. The origin of H2O and CO2 is believed to be from the ablation of micrometeorites containing water ice, followed by photochemistry. This external source of water originates either within the Saturn system or from the interplanetary medium. Recently, Horst et al (J. Geophys. Res. 2008, in press) developed a photochemical model of Titan in which there are two external sources of oxygen. Oxygen ions (probably from Enceladus) precipitate into Titan's atmosphere to form CO at very high altitudes (1100 km). Water ice ablation at lower altitudes (700 km) forms H2O and subsequent chemistry produces CO2. CIRS measurements of CO, CO2, and now of H2O will provide valuable constraints to these photochemical models and - improve our understanding of oxygen chemistry on Titan.

  2. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  3. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Meraner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  4. Conceptual modelling of human resource evaluation process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negoiţă Doina Olivia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking into account the highly diverse tasks which employees have to fulfil due to complex requirements of nowadays consumers, the human resource within an enterprise has become a strategic element for developing and exploiting products which meet the market expectations. Therefore, organizations encounter difficulties when approaching the human resource evaluation process. Hence, the aim of the current paper is to design a conceptual model of the aforementioned process, which allows the enterprises to develop a specific methodology. In order to design the conceptual model, Business Process Modelling instruments were employed - Adonis Community Edition Business Process Management Toolkit using the ADONIS BPMS Notation. The conceptual model was developed based on an in-depth secondary research regarding the human resource evaluation process. The proposed conceptual model represents a generic workflow (sequential and/ or simultaneously activities, which can be extended considering the enterprise’s needs regarding their requirements when conducting a human resource evaluation process. Enterprises can benefit from using software instruments for business process modelling as they enable process analysis and evaluation (predefined / specific queries and also model optimization (simulations.

  5. A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Moeini

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

  6. Signals of El Niño Modoki in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Xie

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The effects of El Niño Modoki events on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL and on the stratosphere were investigated using European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF reanalysis data, oceanic El Niño indices, and general climate model outputs. El Niño Modoki events tend to depress convective activities in the western and eastern Pacific but enhance convective activities in the central and northern Pacific. Consequently, during El Niño Modoki events, negative water vapor anomalies occur in the western and eastern Pacific upper troposphere, whereas there are positive anomalies in the central and northern Pacific upper troposphere. The spatial patterns of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies exhibit a tripolar form. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis of the OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies reveals that canonical El Niño events are associated with the leading mode of the EOF, while El Niño Modoki events correspond to the second mode. The composite analysis based on ERA-interim data indicate that El Niño Modoki events have a reverse effect on middle-high latitudes stratosphere, as compared with the effect of typical El Niño events, i.e., the northern polar vortex is stronger and colder but the southern polar vortex is weaker and warmer during El Niño Modoki events. According to the simulation' results, we found that the reverse effect on the middle-high latitudes stratosphere is resulted from a complicated interaction between quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO signal of east phase and El Niño Modoki signal. This interaction is not a simply linear overlay of QBO signal and El Niño Modoki signal in the stratosphere, it is El Niño Modoki that leads to different tropospheric zonal wind anomalies with QBO forcing from that caused by typical El Niño, thus, the planetary wave propagation from troposphere to the stratosphere during El Niño Modoki events is

  7. Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawa, S.R.; Douglass, A. R.; Patrick, L. C.; Allen, D. R.; Randall, C. E.

    2004-01-01

    The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.

  8. On particles in the Arctic stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Jørgensen

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Soon after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole it became clear that particles in the polar stratosphere had an infl uence on the destruction of the ozone layer. Two major types of particles, sulphate aerosols and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs, provide the surfaces where fast heterogeneous chemical reactions convert inactive halogen reservoir species into potentially ozone-destroying radicals. Lidar measurements have been used to classify the PSCs. Following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 it was found that the Arctic stratosphere was loaded with aerosols, and that aerosols observed with lidar and ozone observed with ozone sondes displayed a layered structure, and that the aerosol and ozone contents in the layers frequently appeared to be negatively correlated. The layered structure was probably due to modulation induced by the dynamics at the edge of the polar vortex. Lidar observations of the Mt. Pinatubo aerosols were in several cases accompanied by balloon-borne backscatter soundings, whereby backscatter measurements in three different wavelengths made it possible to obtain information about the particle sizes. An investigation of the infl uence of synoptic temperature histories on the physical properties of PSC particles has shown that most of the liquid type 1b particles were observed in the process of an ongoing, relatively fast, and continuous cooling from temperatures clearly above the nitric acid trihydrate condensation temperature (TNAT. On the other hand, it appeared that a relatively long period, with a duration of at least 1-2 days, at temperatures below TNAT provide the conditions which may lead to the production of solid type 1a PSCs.

  9. The chemical effects on the summertime ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Tibetan Plateau and the South Asian monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yixuan; Liao, Hong; Xu, Jianming; Zhou, Guangqiang

    2018-01-01

    We use the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model with the Universal tropospheric-stratospheric Chemistry eXtension mechanism to examine the contributions of the chemical processes to summertime O3 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the Tibetan Plateau and the South Asian monsoon region (TP/SASM). Simulated UTLS O3 concentrations are evaluated by comparisons with Microwave Limb Sounder products and net chemical production of O3 (NPO3) are evaluated by comparisons with model results in previous studies. Simulations show that the chemical processes lead to an increase in O3 concentration, which is opposite to the effect of O3 transport in the UTLS over the TP/SASM region throughout the boreal summer. NPO3 in UTLS over the TP/SASM region is the largest in summer. Elevated values (0.016-0.020 Tg year-1) of the seasonal mean NPO3 are simulated to locate at 100 hPa in the TP/SASM region, where the mixing ratios of O3 are low and those of O3 precursors (NO x , VOCs, and CO) are high. The high concentrations of O3 precursors (NO x , VOCs, and CO) together with the active photochemical reactions of NO2 in the UTLS over the TP/SASM region during summertime could be important reasons for the enhancement of {NP}_{{{O}3 }} over the studied region.

  10. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    OpenAIRE

    Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generat...

  11. The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, J. M.; Gille, J. C.

    1978-01-01

    The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere is used to obtain vertical profiles and maps of temperature and the concentration of ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and nitric acid for the region of the stratosphere bounded by the upper troposphere and the lower mesosphere.

  12. Evaluating Extensions to Coherent Mortality Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syazreen Shair

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Coherent models were developed recently to forecast the mortality of two or more sub-populations simultaneously and to ensure long-term non-divergent mortality forecasts of sub-populations. This paper evaluates the forecast accuracy of two recently-published coherent mortality models, the Poisson common factor and the product-ratio functional models. These models are compared to each other and the corresponding independent models, as well as the original Lee–Carter model. All models are applied to age-gender-specific mortality data for Australia and Malaysia and age-gender-ethnicity-specific data for Malaysia. The out-of-sample forecast error of log death rates, male-to-female death rate ratios and life expectancy at birth from each model are compared and examined across groups. The results show that, in terms of overall accuracy, the forecasts of both coherent models are consistently more accurate than those of the independent models for Australia and for Malaysia, but the relative performance differs by forecast horizon. Although the product-ratio functional model outperforms the Poisson common factor model for Australia, the Poisson common factor is more accurate for Malaysia. For the ethnic groups application, ethnic-coherence gives better results than gender-coherence. The results provide evidence that coherent models are preferable to independent models for forecasting sub-populations’ mortality.

  13. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  14. Odin-OSIRIS stratospheric aerosol data product and SAGE III intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Bourassa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The scattered sunlight measurements made by the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS on the Odin spacecraft are used to retrieve vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosol extinction at 750 nm. The recently released OSIRIS Version 5 data product contains the first publicly released stratospheric aerosol extinction retrievals, and these are now available for the entire Odin mission, which extends from the present day back to launch in 2001. A proof-of-concept study for the retrieval of stratospheric aerosol extinction from limb scatter measurements was previously published and the Version 5 data product retrievals are based on this work, but incorporate several important improvements to the algorithm. One of the primary changes is the use of a new retrieval vector that greatly improves the sensitivity to aerosol scattering by incorporating a forward modeled calculation of the radiance from a Rayleigh atmosphere. Additional improvements include a coupled retrieval of the effective albedo, a new method for normalization of the retrieval vector to improve signal-to-noise, and the use of an initial guess that is representative of very low background aerosol loading conditions, which allows for maximal retrieval range. Furthermore, the Version 5 data set is compared to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III 755 nm extinction profiles during the almost four years of mission overlap from 2002 to late 2005. The vertical structure in coincident profile measurements is well correlated and the statistics on a relatively large set of tight coincident measurements show agreement between the measurements from the two instruments to within approximately 10% throughout the 15 to 25 km altitude range, which covers the bulk of the stratospheric aerosol layer for the mid and high latitude cases studied here.

  15. An Atlantic streamer in stratospheric ozone observations and SD-WACCM simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocke, Klemens; Schranz, Franziska; Maillard Barras, Eliane; Moreira, Lorena; Kämpfer, Niklaus

    2017-03-01

    Observation and simulation of individual ozone streamers are important for the description and understanding of non-linear transport processes in the middle atmosphere. A sudden increase in mid-stratospheric ozone occurred above central Europe on 4 December 2015. The GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer (GROMOS) and the Stratospheric Ozone MOnitoring RAdiometer (SOMORA) in Switzerland measured an ozone enhancement of about 30 % at 34 km altitude (8.3 hPa) from 1 to 4 December. A similar ozone increase is simulated by the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate (SD-WACCM) model. Further, the global ozone fields at 34 km altitude (8.3 hPa) from SD-WACCM and the satellite experiment Aura/MLS show a remarkable agreement for the location and timing of an ozone streamer (large-scale tongue-like structure) extending from the subtropics in northern America over the Atlantic to central Europe. This agreement indicates that SD-WACCM can inform us about the wind inside the Atlantic ozone streamer. SD-WACCM shows an eastward wind of about 100 m s-1 inside the Atlantic streamer in the mid-stratosphere. SD-WACCM shows that the Atlantic streamer flows along the edge of the polar vortex. The Atlantic streamer turns southward at an erosion region of the polar vortex located above the Caspian Sea. The spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour indicates a filament outgoing from this erosion region. The Atlantic streamer, the polar vortex erosion region and the water vapour filament belong to the process of planetary wave breaking in the so-called surf zone of the northern midlatitude winter stratosphere.

  16. In situ trace gas and particle measurements in the summer lower stratosphere during STREAM II. Implications for O{sub 3} production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bregman, A; Lelieveld, J; Scheeren, H A [Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands); Arnold, F; Buerger, V; Schneider, J [Max-Planck-Inst. for Nuclear Physics, Heidelberg (Germany); Fischer, H; Waibel, A [Max-Planck-Inst. fuer Chemie, Mainz (Germany); Siegmund, P C; Wauben, W M.F. [Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands); Stroem, J [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    1998-12-31

    In situ aircraft measurements of O{sub 3}, CO, HNO{sub 3}, and aerosol particles are presented, performed over the North Sea region in the summer lower stratosphere during the STREAM-II campaign (Stratosphere Troposphere Experiments by Aircraft Measurements). Elevated CO mixing ratios are attributed to mixing of polluted tropospheric air into the lowermost extra-tropical stratosphere. Model calculations illustrate that the O{sub 3} production efficiency of NO{sub x} is smaller than previously assumed, under conditions with relatively high HNO{sub 3} mixing ratios, as observed during STREAM-II. The model simulations further suggest a relatively high O{sub 3} production efficiency from CO oxidation, as a result of the relatively high ambient HNO{sub 3} and NO{sub x} concentrations, implying that upward transport of CO rich air enhances O{sub 3} production in the lowermost stratosphere. (author) 13 refs.

  17. In situ trace gas and particle measurements in the summer lower stratosphere during STREAM II. Implications for O{sub 3} production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bregman, A.; Lelieveld, J.; Scheeren, H.A. [Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands); Arnold, F.; Buerger, V.; Schneider, J. [Max-Planck-Inst. for Nuclear Physics, Heidelberg (Germany); Fischer, H.; Waibel, A. [Max-Planck-Inst. fuer Chemie, Mainz (Germany); Siegmund, P.C.; Wauben, W.M.F. [Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands); Stroem, J. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In situ aircraft measurements of O{sub 3}, CO, HNO{sub 3}, and aerosol particles are presented, performed over the North Sea region in the summer lower stratosphere during the STREAM-II campaign (Stratosphere Troposphere Experiments by Aircraft Measurements). Elevated CO mixing ratios are attributed to mixing of polluted tropospheric air into the lowermost extra-tropical stratosphere. Model calculations illustrate that the O{sub 3} production efficiency of NO{sub x} is smaller than previously assumed, under conditions with relatively high HNO{sub 3} mixing ratios, as observed during STREAM-II. The model simulations further suggest a relatively high O{sub 3} production efficiency from CO oxidation, as a result of the relatively high ambient HNO{sub 3} and NO{sub x} concentrations, implying that upward transport of CO rich air enhances O{sub 3} production in the lowermost stratosphere. (author) 13 refs.

  18. Correlative measurements of the stratospheric aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, R.; Brogniez, C.; Herman, M.; Diallo, S.; Ackerman, M.

    1992-12-01

    Joint experiments were organized or available during stratospheric flights of a photopolarimeter, referred to as RADIBAL (radiometer balloon). In May 1984, RADIBAL flew simultaneously with another balloonborne experiment conducted by the Institut d'Aeronomie Spatiale de Belgique (IASB), which provides multiwavelength vertical profiles of the aerosol scattering coefficient. At this time, the El Chichon layer was observable quite directly from mountain sites. A ground-based station set up at Pic du Midi allowed an extensive description of the aerosol optical properties. The IASB and the Pic du Midi observations are consistent with the aerosol properties derived from the RADIBAL measurement analysis.

  19. Stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, O.

    2008-01-01

    It is well known that an overexposure to ultraviolet radiation is associated with a number of health risks such as an increased risk of cataracts and skin cancers. At a time when climate change is often blamed for all our environmental problems, what is the latest news about the stratospheric ozone layer and other factors controlling ultraviolet radiation at the surface of the Earth? Will the expected changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and changes in our climate increase or decrease the risk for skin cancer? This article investigates the role of the various factors influencing ultraviolet radiation and presents the latest knowledge on the subject. (author)

  20. The boiling point of stratospheric aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, J. M.

    1971-01-01

    A photoelectric particle counter was used for the measurement of aerosol boiling points. The operational principle involves raising the temperature of the aerosol by vigorously heating a portion of the intake tube. At or above the boiling point, the particles disintegrate rather quickly, and a noticeable effect on the size distribution and concentration is observed. Stratospheric aerosols appear to have the same volatility as a solution of 75% sulfuric acid. Chemical analysis of the aerosols indicates that there are other substances present, but that the sulfate radical is apparently the major constituent.

  1. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Driscoll, Simon; Bozzo, Alessio; Gray, Lesley J.; Robock, Alan; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2012-01-01

    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.

  2. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Driscoll, Simon

    2012-09-16

    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.

  3. Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manney, Gloria L.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Millán, Luis F.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Lambert, Alyn; Pawson, Steven; Knosp, Brian W.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Daffer, William H.

    2017-09-01

    The representation of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution - for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and

  4. Saphire models and software for ASP evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) over the three years has created 75 plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models using the SAPHIRE suite of PRA codes. Along with the new models, the INEL has also developed a new module for SAPHIRE which is tailored specifically to the unique needs of ASP evaluations. These models and software will be the next generation of risk tools for the evaluation of accident precursors by both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). This paper presents an overview of the models and software. Key characteristics include: (1) classification of the plant models according to plant response with a unique set of event trees for each plant class, (2) plant-specific fault trees using supercomponents, (3) generation and retention of all system and sequence cutsets, (4) full flexibility in modifying logic, regenerating cutsets, and requantifying results, and (5) user interface for streamlined evaluation of ASP events. Future plans for the ASP models is also presented

  5. Studying Stratospheric Temperature Variation with Cosmic Ray Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohang; He, Xiaochun

    2015-04-01

    The long term stratospheric cooling in recent decades is believed to be equally important as surface warming as evidence of influences of human activities on the climate system. Un- fortunatly, there are some discrepancies among different measurements of stratospheric tem- peratures, which could be partially caused by the limitations of the measurement techniques. It has been known for decades that cosmic ray muon flux is sensitive to stratospheric temperature change. Dorman proposed that this effect could be used to probe the tempera- ture variations in the stratophere. In this talk, a method for reconstructing stratospheric temperature will be discussed. We verify this method by comparing the stratospheric tem- perature measured by radiosonde with the ones derived from cosmic ray measurement at multiple locations around the globe.

  6. Modeling Energy and Development : An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, Bas van; Urban, Frauke; Benders, René M.J.; Moll, Henri C.; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der; Vries, Bert de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2008-01-01

    Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily oil issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development. the energy ladder and the

  7. Secondary gravity waves from momentum deposition in the stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadas, S.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the generation, propagation and effectsof secondary gravity waves (GWs) from momentum deposition in the stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere in high-resolution GW-resolving models and in TEC/lidar/redline data. We show that secondary GWs generated from the dissipation of orographic GWs at McMurdo Station in Antarctica play a dominant role in the wave activity over McMurdo in the wintertime mesosphere. These secondary GWs are created in the stratosphere, and have been identified in models and data via their telltale "fishbone" appearance in z-t plots. We also show that secondary GWs from the dissipation of GWs excited by deep convectiongenerate concentric rings in the F-region ionosphere. These model results and data point to the importance of secondary GWs from momentumdeposition in the Earth's atmosphere and ionosphere.

  8. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  9. The role of carbonyl sulphide as a source of stratospheric sulphate aerosol and its impact on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Brühl

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Globally, carbonyl sulphide (COS is the most abundant sulphur gas in the atmosphere. Our chemistry-climate model (CCM of the lower and middle atmosphere with aerosol module realistically simulates the background stratospheric sulphur cycle, as observed by satellites in volcanically quiescent periods. The model results indicate that upward transport of COS from the troposphere largely controls the sulphur budget and the aerosol loading of the background stratosphere. This differs from most previous studies which indicated that short-lived sulphur gases are also important. The model realistically simulates the modulation of the particulate and gaseous sulphur abundance in the stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO. In the lowermost stratosphere organic carbon aerosol contributes significantly to extinction. Further, using a chemical radiative convective model and recent spectra, we compute that the direct radiative forcing efficiency by 1 kg of COS is 724 times that of 1 kg CO2. Considering an anthropogenic fraction of 30% (derived from ice core data, this translates into an overall direct radiative forcing by COS of 0.003 W m−2. The direct global warming potentials of COS over time horizons of 20 and 100 yr are GWP(20 yr = 97 and GWP(100 yr = 27, respectively (by mass. Furthermore, stratospheric aerosol particles produced by the photolysis of COS (chemical feedback contribute to a negative direct solar radiative forcing, which in the CCM amounts to −0.007 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere for the anthropogenic fraction, more than two times the direct warming forcing of COS. Considering that the lifetime of COS is twice that of stratospheric aerosols the warming and cooling tendencies approximately cancel.

  10. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION MODEL LOMCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis Bernal Agudo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation model that the LOMCE projects sinks its roots into the neoliberal beliefs, reflecting a specific way of understanding the world. What matters is not the process but the results, being the evaluation the center of the education-learning processes. It presents an evil planning, since the theory that justifies the model doesn’t specify upon coherent proposals, where there is an excessive worry for excellence and diversity is left out. A comprehensive way of understanding education should be recovered.

  11. Study on team evaluation. Team process model for team evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasou Kunihide; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Hirose, Ayako

    2004-01-01

    Several studies have been done to evaluate or improve team performance in nuclear and aviation industries. Crew resource management is the typical example. In addition, team evaluation recently gathers interests in other teams of lawyers, medical staff, accountants, psychiatrics, executive, etc. However, the most evaluation methods focus on the results of team behavior that can be observed through training or actual business situations. What is expected team is not only resolving problems but also training younger members being destined to lead the next generation. Therefore, the authors set the final goal of this study establishing a series of methods to evaluate and improve teams inclusively such as decision making, motivation, staffing, etc. As the first step, this study develops team process model describing viewpoints for the evaluation. The team process is defined as some kinds of power that activate or inactivate competency of individuals that is the components of team's competency. To find the team process, the authors discussed the merits of team behavior with the experienced training instructors and shift supervisors of nuclear/thermal power plants. The discussion finds four team merits and many components to realize those team merits. Classifying those components into eight groups of team processes such as 'Orientation', 'Decision Making', 'Power and Responsibility', 'Workload Management', 'Professional Trust', 'Motivation', 'Training' and 'staffing', the authors propose Team Process Model with two to four sub processes in each team process. In the future, the authors will develop methods to evaluate some of the team processes for nuclear/thermal power plant operation teams. (author)

  12. Response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Gao, Yannan; Cai, Juan; Guo, Dong; Lu, Yan

    2018-04-01

    The response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter is investigated based on measurements of the solar cycle by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor onboard the SORCE satellite, monthly ERA-Interim Reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the radiative transfer scheme of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-RAD) and a multiple linear regression model. The results show that during periods of strong solar activity, the solar shortwave heating anomaly from the climatology in the tropical upper stratosphere triggers a local warm anomaly and strong westerly winds in mid-latitudes, which strengthens the upward propagation of planetary wave 1 but prevents that of wave 2. The enhanced westerly jet makes a slight adjustment to the propagation path of wave 1, but prevents wave 2 from propagating upward, decreases the dissipation of wave 2 in the extratropical upper stratosphere and hence weakens the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The adiabatic heating term in relation to the Brewer-Dobson circulation shows anomalous warming in the tropical lower stratosphere and anomalous cooling in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere.

  13. Small volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, David M.

    2012-09-01

    least 1.3-1.5 Tg of SO2 (Krotkov et al 2011, Clarisse et al 2012). This was probably the largest sulfur yield from an explosive eruption since Pinatubo and Hudson in 1991 (Deshler et al 2006, Krotkov et al 2010). Within two weeks, volcanic aerosol had been detected at elevations of 15-20 km within the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere above north Africa and southern Eurasia; and within a month, the aerosol had been detected by lidar instruments on every continent in the northern hemisphere, from 20°-45°N. The aerosol, presumed to be dominated by sulfate, persisted for the period of observation (June-September 2011), and led to a small but significant stratospheric aerosol optical depth (AOD) perturbation (average ~0.02). While this is an order of magnitude lower than global AOD perturbations following the most significant eruptions of the 20th century (e.g. Stothers 1996), it is nonetheless substantially larger than estimates of the typical 'nonvolcanic' stratospheric aerosol background ( Bali, Indonesia) Bull. Volcanol. 74 1521-36 Smithsonian Institution 2011 Nabro. First historically observed eruption began 13 June 2011 Bull. Glob. Volcanism Netw. 36 (9) (www.volcano.si.edu/reports/bulletin/contents.cfm?issue=3609) Stohl A et al 2011 Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11 4333-51 Stothers R B 1996 Major optical depth perturbations to the stratosphere from volcanic eruptions: pyrheliometric period 1881-1960 J. Geophys. Res. 101 3901-20 Symons G J (ed) 1888 The Eruption of Krakatoa and Subsequent Phenomena (London: Trubner and Co) Thomas H E and Prata A J 2011 Sulphur dioxide as a volcanic ash proxy during the April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11 6871-80 Walker J C, Carboni E, Dudhia A and Grainger R G 2012 Improved detection of sulphur dioxide in volcanic plumes using satellite

  14. Persistence of Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccormick, M. Patrick; Trepte, C. R.

    1988-01-01

    The persistence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 satellite sensor over a 9-year period is compared and contrasted. Histograms of the SAM 2 1.0 micron extinction ratio data (aerosol extinction normalized by the molecular extinction) at an altitude of 18 km in the Antarctic have been generated for three 10-day periods in the month of September. Statistics for eight different years (1979 to 1982 and 1984 to 1987) are shown in separate panels for each figure. Since the SAM 2 system is a solar occultation experiment, observations are limited to the edge of the polar night and no measurements are made deep within the vortex where temperatures could be colder. For this reason, use is made of the NMC global gridded fields and the known temperature-extinction relationship to infer additional information on the occurrence and areal coverage of PSCs. Calculations of the daily areal coverage of the 195 K isotherm will be presented for this same period of data. This contour level lies in the range of the predicted temperature for onset of the Type 1 particle enhancement mode at 50 mb (Poole and McCormick, 1988b) and should indicate approximately when formation of the binary HNO3-H2O particles begins.

  15. Study of photolytic aerosols at stratospheric pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delattre, Patrick.

    1975-07-01

    An experimental study of photolytic aerosol formation at stratospheric pressure (60 Torr) and laboratory temperature, was carried out previous to the exact simulation of photolytic aerosol formation in real stratospheric conditions. An experimental simulation device, techniques of generation of known mixtures of inert gases with SO 2 and NOsub(x) traces at low concentration (below 1 ppm volume) and H 2 O traces (a few ppm), and techniques for the determination and counting of aerosol particles at low pressures were perfected. The following results were achieved: the rate of vapor condensation on nuclei was reduced when total pressure decreased. At low pressure the working of condensation nuclei counters and the formation of photolytic aerosols is influenced by this phenomenon. An explanation is proposed, as well as means to avoid this unpleasant effect on the working of nuclei counters at low pressure. No photolytic aerosol production was ascertained at 60 Torr when water concentration was below 100 ppm whatever the concentration of SO 2 or NOsub(x) traces. With water concentration below 1200ppm and SO 2 trace concentration below 1ppm, the aerosol particles produced could not consist of sulfuric acid drops but probably of nitrosyl sulfate acide crystals [fr

  16. An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s. Appendix K

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, Robert M.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Shia, Run-Lie; Yang, Yajaing; Zhou, Shuntai; Molnar, Gyula

    1997-01-01

    In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

  17. Evaluating Performances of Traffic Noise Models | Oyedepo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Traffic noise in decibel dB(A) were measured at six locations using 407780A Integrating Sound Level Meter, while spot speed and traffic volume were collected with cine-camera. The predicted sound exposure level (SEL) was evaluated using Burgess, British and FWHA model. The average noise level obtained are 77.64 ...

  18. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuan, Shichang; Yang, Wu; Dong, Hui; Zhang, Jiangchuan

    2016-01-01

    Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers). Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  19. Evaluation of Usability Utilizing Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penedo, Janaina Rodrigues; Diniz, Morganna; Ferreira, Simone Bacellar Leal; Silveira, Denis S.; Capra, Eliane

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the usability of a remote learning system in its initial development phase, using a quantitative usability evaluation method through Markov models. Design/methodology/approach: The paper opted for an exploratory study. The data of interest of the research correspond to the possible accesses of users…

  20. Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shichang Xuan

    Full Text Available Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers. Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

  1. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  2. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  3. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  4. An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, P.; Karoly, D. J.; Newmann, P. A.; Clarkson, T. S.; Matthews, W. A.

    1992-07-01

    Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

  5. Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. McLandress

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In a recent paper Hu et al. (2011 suggest that the recovery of stratospheric ozone during the first half of this century will significantly enhance free tropospheric and surface warming caused by the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases, with the effects being most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These surprising results are based on a multi-model analysis of CMIP3 model simulations with and without prescribed stratospheric ozone recovery. Hu et al. suggest that in order to properly quantify the tropospheric and surface temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery, it is necessary to run coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models with stratospheric ozone chemistry. The results of such an experiment are presented here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model. In contrast to Hu et al., we find a much smaller Northern Hemisphere tropospheric temperature response to ozone recovery, which is of opposite sign. We suggest that their result is an artifact of the incomplete removal of the large effect of greenhouse gas warming between the two different sets of models.

  6. Modelling and evaluation of surgical performance using hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megali, Giuseppe; Sinigaglia, Stefano; Tonet, Oliver; Dario, Paolo

    2006-10-01

    Minimally invasive surgery has become very widespread in the last ten years. Since surgeons experience difficulties in learning and mastering minimally invasive techniques, the development of training methods is of great importance. While the introduction of virtual reality-based simulators has introduced a new paradigm in surgical training, skill evaluation methods are far from being objective. This paper proposes a method for defining a model of surgical expertise and an objective metric to evaluate performance in laparoscopic surgery. Our approach is based on the processing of kinematic data describing movements of surgical instruments. We use hidden Markov model theory to define an expert model that describes expert surgical gesture. The model is trained on kinematic data related to exercises performed on a surgical simulator by experienced surgeons. Subsequently, we use this expert model as a reference model in the definition of an objective metric to evaluate performance of surgeons with different abilities. Preliminary results show that, using different topologies for the expert model, the method can be efficiently used both for the discrimination between experienced and novice surgeons, and for the quantitative assessment of surgical ability.

  7. First Simulations of Designing Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering to Meet Multiple Simultaneous Climate Objectives: DESIGNING STRATOSPHERIC GEOENGINEERING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Ben [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; MacMartin, Douglas G. [Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca NY USA; Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA USA; Mills, Michael J. [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Richter, Jadwiga H. [Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Tilmes, Simone [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Lamarque, Jean-Francois [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Tribbia, Joseph J. [Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Vitt, Francis [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA

    2017-12-07

    We describe the first simulations of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering using multiple injection locations to meet multiple simultaneous surface temperature objectives. Simulations were performed using CESM1(WACCM), a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with fully interactive stratospheric chemistry, dynamics (including an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation), and a sophisticated treatment of sulfate aerosol formation, microphysical growth, and deposition. The objectives are defined as maintaining three temperature features at their 2020 levels against a background of the RCP8.5 scenario over the period 2020-2099. These objectives are met using a feedback mechanism in which the rate of sulfur dioxide injection at each of the four locations is adjusted independently every year of simulation. Even in the presence of uncertainties, nonlinearities, and variability, the objectives are met, predominantly by SO2 injection at 30°N and 30°S. By the last year of simulation, the feedback algorithm calls for a total injection rate of 51 Tg SO2 per year. The injections are not in the tropics, which results in a greater degree of linearity of the surface climate response with injection amount than has been found in many previous studies using injection at the equator. Because the objectives are defined in terms of annual mean temperature, the required geeongineering results in "overcooling" during summer and "undercooling" during winter. The hydrological cycle is also suppressed as compared to the reference values corresponding to the year 2020. The demonstration we describe in this study is an important step toward understanding what geoengineering can do and what it cannot do.

  8. Design and Simulation to Composite PI Controller on the Stratospheric Airship

    OpenAIRE

    Kangwen Sun; Ming Zhu; Bojin Qi; Xiaoming Chen

    2014-01-01

    In view of the stratospheric airship application requirements on energy storage and management system, based on the topology of DC/DC converter main circuit, the composite PI controller is designed to realize respective control with the Boost mode and Buck mode. Furthermore, limit stop integration method is proposed to achieve a buck-boost complex DC/DC converter boost with effective switching buck. Then, with the MATLAB Control System Toolbox design model, the composite PI controller design ...

  9. Numerical simulation of convective generated gravity waves in the stratosphere and MLT regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heale, C. J.; Snively, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Convection is an important source of gravity wave generation, especially in the summer tropics and midlatitudes, and coherent wave fields above convection are now routinely measured in the stratosphere and mesosphere [e.g. Hoffmann et al., JGR, 118, 2013; Gong et al., JGR, 120, 2015; Perwitasari et al., GRL, 42, 22, 2016]. Numerical studies have been performed to investigate the generation mechanisms, source spectra, and their effects on the middle and upper atmosphere [e.g. Fovell et al., AMS, 49,16, 1992; Alexander and Holton, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4 2004; Vincent et al., JGR, 1118, 2013], however there is still considerable work needed to fully describe these parameters. GCMs currently lack the resolution to explicitly simulate convection generation and rely on simplified parameterizations while full cloud resolving models are computationally expensive and often only extend into the stratosphere. More recent studies have improved the realism of these simulations by using radar derived precipitation rates to drive latent heating in models that simulate convection [Grimsdell et al., AMS, 67, 2010; Stephan and Alexander., J. Adv. Model. Earth. Syst, 7, 2015], however they too only consider wave propagation in the troposphere and stratosphere. We use a 2D nonlinear, fully compressible model [Snively and Pasko., JGR, 113, 2008] to excite convectively generated waves, based on NEXRAD radar data, using the Stephan and Alexander [2015] algorithms. We study the propagation, and spectral evolution of the generated waves up into the MLT region. Ambient atmosphere parameters are derived from observations and MERRA-2 reanalysis data, and stratospheric (AIRS) and mesospheric (Lidar, OH airglow) observations enable comparisons with simulation results.

  10. Evidence for Dynamical Coupling of Stratosphere-MLT during recent minor Stratospheric Warmings in Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongha; Sunkara, Eswaraiah; Hong, Junseok; Ratnam, Venkat; Chandran, Amal; Rao, Svb; Riggin, Dennis

    2015-04-01

    The mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) response to extremely rare minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events was observed for the first time in the southern hemisphere (SH) during 2010 and is investigated using the meteor radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica. Three episodic SSWs were noticed from early August to late October 2010. The mesospheric wind field was found to significantly differ from normal years due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSWs and secondary PWs in the MLT afterwards. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the SSW occurrence in the stratosphere as has been observed 2002 major SSW, suggesting the downward propagation of disturbance during minor SSWs as well. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with SSWs are found in the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. SD-WACCM simulations are able to produce these observed features.

  11. Aerosol particle size distribution in the stratosphere retrieved from SCIAMACHY limb measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinina, Elizaveta; Rozanov, Alexei; Rozanov, Vladimir; Liebing, Patricia; Bovensmann, Heinrich; Burrows, John P.

    2018-04-01

    health, stratospheric aerosol plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate change. In particular, information about the amount and distribution of stratospheric aerosols is required to initialize climate models, as well as validate aerosol microphysics models and investigate geoengineering. In addition, good knowledge of stratospheric aerosol loading is needed to increase the retrieval accuracy of key trace gases (e.g. ozone or water vapour) when interpreting remote sensing measurements of the scattered solar light. The most commonly used characteristics to describe stratospheric aerosols are the aerosol extinction coefficient and Ångström coefficient. However, the use of particle size distribution parameters along with the aerosol number density is a more optimal approach. In this paper we present a new retrieval algorithm to obtain the particle size distribution of stratospheric aerosol from space-borne observations of the scattered solar light in the limb-viewing geometry. While the mode radius and width of the aerosol particle size distribution are retrieved, the aerosol particle number density profile remains unchanged. The latter is justified by a lower sensitivity of the limb-scattering measurements to changes in this parameter. To our knowledge this is the first data set providing two parameters of the particle size distribution of stratospheric aerosol from space-borne measurements of scattered solar light. Typically, the mode radius and w can be retrieved with an uncertainty of less than 20 %. The algorithm was successfully applied to the tropical region (20° N-20° S) for 10 years (2002-2012) of SCIAMACHY observations in limb-viewing geometry, establishing a unique data set. Analysis of this new climatology for the particle size distribution parameters showed clear increases in the mode radius after the tropical volcanic eruptions, whereas no distinct behaviour of the absolute distribution width could be identified. A tape recorder

  12. CERN: Antiprotons probe the nuclear stratosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The outer periphery of heavy stable nuclei is notoriously difficult to study experimentally. While the well understood electromagnetic interaction between electrons (or muons) and protons has given the nuclear charge (or proton) distribution with high precision for almost all stable nuclei, neutron distribution studies are much less precise. This is especially true for large nuclear distances, where the nuclear density is small. A few previous experiments probing the nuclear ''stratosphere'' suggested that far from the centre of the nucleus (of the order of 2 nuclear radii) this stratosphere may be composed predominantly of neutrons. At the end of the sixties the term ''neutron halo'' was introduced to describe this phenomenon, but experimental evidence was scarce or even controversial, and remained so for almost a quarter of a century. Recently, the Warsaw/Munich/Berlin collaboration working within the PS203 experiment at CERN's LEAR low energy antiproton ring, proposed a new method to study the nuclear periphery using stopped antiprotons. The halo now looks firmer. A 200 MeV/c beam of antiprotons was slowed down by interactions with atomic electrons. When antiproton kinetic energy drops well below 1 keV, the particles are captured in the outermost orbits of ''exotic atoms'', where the antiprotons take the place of the usual orbital electrons. With the lower orbits in this antiprotonic atom empty, the antiproton drops toward the nuclear surface, first emitting Auger electrons and later predominantly antiprotonic X-rays. Due to the strong interaction between antiprotons and nucleons, the antiproton succumbs to annihilation with a nucleon in the rarified nuclear stratosphere, far above the innermost Bohr orbit of the atom. The annihilation probability in heavy nuclei is maximal where the nuclear density is about 3% of its central value and extends to densities many orders of magnitude smaller

  13. CERN: Antiprotons probe the nuclear stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1995-06-15

    The outer periphery of heavy stable nuclei is notoriously difficult to study experimentally. While the well understood electromagnetic interaction between electrons (or muons) and protons has given the nuclear charge (or proton) distribution with high precision for almost all stable nuclei, neutron distribution studies are much less precise. This is especially true for large nuclear distances, where the nuclear density is small. A few previous experiments probing the nuclear ''stratosphere'' suggested that far from the centre of the nucleus (of the order of 2 nuclear radii) this stratosphere may be composed predominantly of neutrons. At the end of the sixties the term ''neutron halo'' was introduced to describe this phenomenon, but experimental evidence was scarce or even controversial, and remained so for almost a quarter of a century. Recently, the Warsaw/Munich/Berlin collaboration working within the PS203 experiment at CERN's LEAR low energy antiproton ring, proposed a new method to study the nuclear periphery using stopped antiprotons. The halo now looks firmer. A 200 MeV/c beam of antiprotons was slowed down by interactions with atomic electrons. When antiproton kinetic energy drops well below 1 keV, the particles are captured in the outermost orbits of ''exotic atoms'', where the antiprotons take the place of the usual orbital electrons. With the lower orbits in this antiprotonic atom empty, the antiproton drops toward the nuclear surface, first emitting Auger electrons and later predominantly antiprotonic X-rays. Due to the strong interaction between antiprotons and nucleons, the antiproton succumbs to annihilation with a nucleon in the rarified nuclear stratosphere, far above the innermost Bohr orbit of the atom. The annihilation probability in heavy nuclei is maximal where the nuclear density is about 3% of its central value and extends to densities many orders of magnitude smaller. Antiproton annihilation on a proton or on a neutron at the nuclear

  14. Stratospheric gravity wave activities inferred through the GPS radio occultation technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wrasse, Cristiano Max; Takahashi, Hisao; Fechine, Joaquim; Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Wickert, Jens

    2007-01-01

    Stratospheric gravity wave activities were deduced from GPS radio occultation temperature profiles obtained by CHAMP satellite between 2001 and 2005. Potential energy profiles are used to analyze the gravity wave activity over South America. The results showed an inter-annual variation of the potential energy integrated between 24 and 34 km of altitude. The gravity wave activity is more concentrated around the equatorial region. In order to evaluate the seasonal variation of the gravity wave activity, a mean potential energy was determined over (10 deg N-10 deg S) and (100 deg W-20 deg W). The results showed a lower gravity wave activity during winter time, while during spring time the mean potential energy showed an increase in the wave activity. The results of the mean potential energy also showed that the gravity wave activity in the lower stratosphere exhibits a higher wave activity during 2002 and 2004 and a lower wave activity during 2003 and 2005. (author)

  15. Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere structure during convective systems using GPS radio occultations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biondi, Riccardo

    The deep convective systems play a fundamental role in atmospheric circulation and climate. Thunderstorms and meso-scale convective systems produce fast vertical transport, redistributing water vapor and trace gases and influencing the thermal structure of the upper troposphere and lower...... stratosphere (UTLS) contributing to the troposphere-stratosphere transport and affecting the Earth global circulation and the climate changes. The Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) technique enables measurement of atmospheric density structure in any meteorological condition...... to the analysis of tropical storms for the future mission ACES will also be evaluated. Using data from the past and ongoing GPS RO missions we have defined an algorithm to detect the clouds top of the convective systems and their thermal structure. Other satellite and in-situ measurements co-located with GPS ROs...

  16. Condition of The Stratospheric and Mesospheric Ozone Layer Over Bulgaria for the Period 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleyna, Petya; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Miloshev, Nikolay

    2014-05-01

    A detailed analysis of the variations of the stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bulgaria, in the period 1996-2012, is presented in the article on the basis of ground and satellite measurements of the Total Ozone Content (TOC). The move of the most important components: yearly running mean values, amplitudes and phases of the first four harmonics of the seasonal cycle. Their mean values for the period and the existing long term trends have been found. An evaluation of the general characteristics of the short term variability of the Total Ozone Content (TOC) over Bulgaria also has been made in the article. The impact of the planetary wave activity of the stratosphere on the total ozone has been studied and the climatology of the oscillation amplitudes with periods of 4, 7, 11 and 25 days has been defined.

  17. Model description and evaluation of model performance: DOSDIM model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewyckyj, N.; Zeevaert, T.

    1996-01-01

    DOSDIM was developed to assess the impact to man from routine and accidental atmospheric releases. It is a compartmental, deterministic, radiological model. For an accidental release, dynamic transfer are used in opposition to a routine release for which equilibrium transfer factors are used. Parameters values were chosen to be conservative. Transfer between compartments are described by first-order differential equations. 2 figs

  18. Performance Evaluation and Modelling of Container Terminals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatasubbaiah, K.; Rao, K. Narayana; Rao, M. Malleswara; Challa, Suresh

    2018-02-01

    The present paper evaluates and analyzes the performance of 28 container terminals of south East Asia through data envelopment analysis (DEA), principal component analysis (PCA) and hybrid method of DEA-PCA. DEA technique is utilized to identify efficient decision making unit (DMU)s and to rank DMUs in a peer appraisal mode. PCA is a multivariate statistical method to evaluate the performance of container terminals. In hybrid method, DEA is integrated with PCA to arrive the ranking of container terminals. Based on the composite ranking, performance modelling and optimization of container terminals is carried out through response surface methodology (RSM).

  19. A theoretical study of rotatable renewable energy system for stratospheric airship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Mingyun; Li, Jun; Zhu, Weiyu; Du, Huafei; Meng, Junhui; Sun, Kangwen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new rotatable renewable energy system is designed for stratospheric airship. • A theoretical model of optimal rotation angle and required area are studied. • The effects of latitude and date on output energy per day are investigated. • The advantages of the rotatable renewable energy system are studied. - Abstract: Renewable energy system is very critical for solving the energy problem of a long endurance stratospheric airship. Output performance of the traditional solar array fixed on the upper surface of the airship remains to be improved to reduce the area and weight of renewable energy system. Inspired by the solar tracking system and kirigami, a rotatable renewable energy system (mainly including solar array) is designed to improve the current status of the energy system. The advantages of the rotatable solar array are studied using a MATLAB computer program based on the theoretical model established in this paper. The improvements in output energy and required area of the solar array were compared between the traditional airship and improved one. Studies had shown that the rotatable renewable energy system made the total weight of energy system decreased by 1000 kg when the maximum design speed of the airship was greater than 22 m/s. The results demonstrate that the rotatable renewable energy system for the airship can be a good way to improve the output performance of solar array, and the conceptual design and theoretical model suggest a pathway towards solving the energy problem of a stratospheric airship.

  20. 'Downward control' of the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution of the polar winter stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Rolando R.; Boville, Byron A.

    1994-01-01

    According to the 'downward control' principle, the extratropical mean vertical velocity on a given pressure level is approximately proportional to the meridional gradient of the vertically integrated zonal force per unit mass exerted by waves above that level. In this paper, a simple numerical model that includes parameterizations of both planetary and gravity wave breaking is used to explore the influence of gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere on the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution at lower levels in the polar winter stratosphere. The results of these calculations suggest that gravity wave drag in the mesosphere can affect the state of the polar winter stratosphere down to altitudes below 30 km. The effect is most important when planetary wave driving is relatively weak: that is, during southern winter and in early northern winter. In southern winter, downwelling weakens by a factor of 2 near the stratospause and by 20% at 30 km when gravity wave drag is not included in the calculations. As a consequence, temperatures decrease considerably throughout the polar winter stratosphere (over 20 K above 40 km and as much as 8 K at 30 km, where the effect is enhanced by the long radiative relaxation timescale). The polar winter states obtained when gravity wave drag is omitted in this simple model resemble the results of simulations with some general circulation models and suggest that some of the shortcomings of the latter may be due to a deficit in mesospheric momentum deposition by small-scale gravity waves.

  1. Ice condensation on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate: Implications for polar stratospheric ice clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Fortin

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism of ice nucleation to form Type 2 PSCs is important for controlling the ice particle size and hence the possible dehydration in the polar winter stratosphere. This paper probes heterogeneous ice nucleation on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT. Laboratory experiments were performed using a thin-film, high-vacuum apparatus in which the condensed phase is monitored via Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and water pressure is monitored with the combination of an MKS baratron and an ionization gauge. Results show that SAT is an efficient ice nucleus with a critical ice saturation ratio of S*ice = 1.3 to 1.02 over the temperature range 169.8-194.5 K. This corresponds to a necessary supercooling of 0.1-1.3 K below the ice frost point. The laboratory data is used as input for a microphysical/photochemical model to probe the effect that this heterogeneous nucleation mechanism could have on Type 2 PSC formation and stratospheric dehydration. In the model simulations, even a very small number of SAT particles (e.g., 10-3 cm-3 result in ice nucleation on SAT as the dominant mechanism for Type 2 PSC formation. As a result, Type 2 PSC formation is more widespread, leading to larger-scale dehydration. The characteristics of the clouds are controlled by the assumed number of SAT particles present, demonstrating that a proper treatment of SAT is critical for correctly modeling Type 2 PSC formation and stratospheric dehydration.

  2. A stratospheric NO2 climatology from Odin/OSIRIS limb-scatter measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brohede, S.; Murtagh, D.; Berthet, G.; Haley, C.S.

    2007-01-01

    Since the late 1960s, it has been known that stratospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone are closely coupled. However, stratospheric nitrogen chemistry is not yet fully understood, given the lack of observing systems that can provide both high vertical and temporal resolution measurements of NO 2 . Limb-scattering data from the optical spectrograph and infrared imager system (OSIRIS) aboard the Odin satellite was used in this study along with a photochemical box model to investigate stratospheric NO 2 climatology in terms of mean and standard deviation as a function of latitude, altitude, month and local solar time. The Odin orbit provided near global coverage around the equinoxes and hemispheric coverage elsewhere, due to lack of sunlight. The mean NO 2 field at a specific local solar time involved high concentrations in the polar summer, peaking at about 25 km, with a negative equatorward gradient. High levels between 40 to 50 degrees latitude at 30 km in the winter/spring hemisphere were also found, and were associated with the Noxon-cliff. The diurnal cycle revealed the lowest NO 2 concentrations just after sunrise and steep gradients at twilight. The 1σ standard deviation was around 20 per cent, except for winter and spring high latitudes, where values were above 50 per cent and stretched through the entire stratosphere. NO 2 concentrations were found to be log-normally distributed. Comparisons with the REPROBUS chemical transport model for climatology showed that the relative differences for the mean values were below 20 per cent and comparable to the estimated OSIRIS systematic uncertainty. The polar regions in winter/spring throughout the atmosphere and equatorial regions below 25 km were exceptions, where OSIRIS was higher by 40 per cent and more. It was concluded that further study is needed to determine if these discrepancies are due to limitations of the model. 47 refs., 10 figs., 1 appendix

  3. Effects of mixing on resolved and unresolved scales on stratospheric age of air

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dietmüller

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Mean age of air (AoA is a widely used metric to describe the transport along the Brewer–Dobson circulation. We seek to untangle the effects of different processes on the simulation of AoA, using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS. Here, the effects of residual transport and two-way mixing on AoA are calculated. To do so, we calculate the residual circulation transit time (RCTT. The difference of AoA and RCTT is defined as aging by mixing. However, as diffusion is also included in this difference, we further use a method to directly calculate aging by mixing on resolved scales. Comparing these two methods of calculating aging by mixing allows for separating the effect of unresolved aging by mixing (which we term aging by diffusion in the following in EMAC and CLaMS. We find that diffusion impacts AoA by making air older, but its contribution plays a minor role (order of 10 % in all simulations. However, due to the different advection schemes of the two models, aging by diffusion has a larger effect on AoA and mixing efficiency in EMAC, compared to CLaMS. Regarding the trends in AoA, in CLaMS the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere except in the Northern Hemisphere middle stratosphere, consistent with observations. This slight positive trend is neither reproduced in a free-running nor in a nudged simulation with EMAC – in both simulations the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere. Trends in AoA are mainly driven by the contributions of RCTT and aging by mixing, whereas the contribution of aging by diffusion plays a minor role.

  4. Stratonauts pioneers venturing into the stratosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrenfried, Manfred "Dutch"

    2014-01-01

    Stratonauts chronicles humankind’s quest for ever higher altitudes from ancient times to the present. It is based upon history, science and technology, and tells some interesting and fascinating stories along the way. It pays tribute to those killed while attempting to reach the stratosphere over the past several centuries.   “Dutch” von Ehrenfried uses his personal experience as a NASA sensor operator on the RB-57F, flying to an altitude of 70,000 feet, as well as the input and experience from other RB-57F, U-2, A-12, SR-71 and F-104 pilots. Although many of the aircraft and balloons are described, more emphasis is placed on the crews and what they went through. This book is intended for aviators of all kinds and flying enthusiasts in general.

  5. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  6. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    EDENBURN, MICHAEL W.; BUNTING, MARCUS; PAYNE, ARTHUR C. JR.; TROST, LAWRENCE C.

    2000-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0

  7. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

  8. Transport properties site descriptive model. Guidelines for evaluation and modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Sten; Selroos, Jan-Olof

    2004-04-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models within the SKB Site Investigation programme. Similar reports have been produced for the other disciplines in the site descriptive modelling (Geology, Hydrogeology, Hydrogeochemistry, Rock mechanics, Thermal properties, and Surface ecosystems). These reports are intended to guide the site descriptive modelling, but also to provide the authorities with an overview of modelling work that will be performed. The site descriptive modelling of transport properties is presented in this report and in the associated 'Strategy for the use of laboratory methods in the site investigations programme for the transport properties of the rock', which describes laboratory measurements and data evaluations. Specifically, the objectives of the present report are to: Present a description that gives an overview of the strategy for developing Site Descriptive Models, and which sets the transport modelling into this general context. Provide a structure for developing Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models that facilitates efficient modelling and comparisons between different sites. Provide guidelines on specific modelling issues where methodological consistency is judged to be of special importance, or where there is no general consensus on the modelling approach. The objectives of the site descriptive modelling process and the resulting Transport Properties Site Descriptive Models are to: Provide transport parameters for Safety Assessment. Describe the geoscientific basis for the transport model, including the qualitative and quantitative data that are of importance for the assessment of uncertainties and confidence in the transport description, and for the understanding of the processes at the sites. Provide transport parameters for use within other discipline-specific programmes. Contribute to the integrated evaluation of the investigated sites. The site descriptive modelling of

  9. Evaluation of CNN as anthropomorphic model observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massanes, Francesc; Brankov, Jovan G.

    2017-03-01

    Model observers (MO) are widely used in medical imaging to act as surrogates of human observers in task-based image quality evaluation, frequently towards optimization of reconstruction algorithms. In this paper, we explore the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to be used as MO. We will compare CNN MO to alternative MO currently being proposed and used such as the relevance vector machine based MO and channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). As the success of the CNN, and other deep learning approaches, is rooted in large data sets availability, which is rarely the case in medical imaging systems task-performance evaluation, we will evaluate CNN performance on both large and small training data sets.

  10. On the Growth of Ternary System HNO3/H2SO4/H2O Aerosol Particles in the Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamill, Patrick; Tabazadeh, A.; Kinne, S.; Toon, O. B.; Turco, R. P.

    1996-01-01

    We present a study of the growth of ternary solution (nitric acid, sulfuric acid and water) droplets in the stratosphere. The growth mechanism is hetero-molecular condensation in which the particle is assumed to be in equilibrium with environmental water vapor. Model results are in reasonable agreement with the averaged extinction ratio obtained by the SAM II satellite system.

  11. First Successful Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Hamilton, K.; Osprey, S.; Kawatani, Y.; Nishimoto, E.

    2018-02-01

    In early 2016 the quasi-biennial oscillation in tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted by an anomalous easterly jet centered at 40 hPa, a development that was completely missed by all operational extended range weather forecast systems. This event and its predictability are investigated through 40 day ensemble hindcasts using a global model notable for its sophisticated representation of the upper atmosphere. Integrations starting at different times throughout January 2016—just before and during the initial development of the easterly jet—were performed. All integrations simulated the unusual developments in the stratospheric mean wind, despite considerable differences in other aspects of the flow evolution among the ensemble members, notably in the evolution of the winter polar vortex and the day-to-day variations in extratropical Rossby waves. Key to prediction of this event is simulating the slowly evolving mean winds in the winter subtropics that provide a waveguide for Rossby waves propagating from the winter hemisphere.

  12. Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

    2018-05-01

    The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

  13. Small Animal Models for Evaluating Filovirus Countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banadyga, Logan; Wong, Gary; Qiu, Xiangguo

    2018-05-11

    The development of novel therapeutics and vaccines to treat or prevent disease caused by filoviruses, such as Ebola and Marburg viruses, depends on the availability of animal models that faithfully recapitulate clinical hallmarks of disease as it is observed in humans. In particular, small animal models (such as mice and guinea pigs) are historically and frequently used for the primary evaluation of antiviral countermeasures, prior to testing in nonhuman primates, which represent the gold-standard filovirus animal model. In the past several years, however, the filovirus field has witnessed the continued refinement of the mouse and guinea pig models of disease, as well as the introduction of the hamster and ferret models. We now have small animal models for most human-pathogenic filoviruses, many of which are susceptible to wild type virus and demonstrate key features of disease, including robust virus replication, coagulopathy, and immune system dysfunction. Although none of these small animal model systems perfectly recapitulates Ebola virus disease or Marburg virus disease on its own, collectively they offer a nearly complete set of tools in which to carry out the preclinical development of novel antiviral drugs.

  14. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Design and Analysis of Optimal Ascent Trajectories for Stratospheric Airships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Joseph Bernard

    Stratospheric airships are lighter-than-air vehicles that have the potential to provide a long-duration airborne presence at altitudes of 18-22 km. Designed to operate on solar power in the calm portion of the lower stratosphere and above all regulated air traffic and cloud cover, these vehicles represent an emerging platform that resides between conventional aircraft and satellites. A particular challenge for airship operation is the planning of ascent trajectories, as the slow moving vehicle must traverse the high wind region of the jet stream. Due to large changes in wind speed and direction across altitude and the susceptibility of airship motion to wind, the trajectory must be carefully planned, preferably optimized, in order to ensure that the desired station be reached within acceptable performance bounds of flight time and energy consumption. This thesis develops optimal ascent trajectories for stratospheric airships, examines the structure and sensitivity of these solutions, and presents a strategy for onboard guidance. Optimal ascent trajectories are developed that utilize wind energy to achieve minimum-time and minimum-energy flights. The airship is represented by a three-dimensional point mass model, and the equations of motion include aerodynamic lift and drag, vectored thrust, added mass effects, and accelerations due to mass flow rate, wind rates, and Earth rotation. A representative wind profile is developed based on historical meteorological data and measurements. Trajectory optimization is performed by first defining an optimal control problem with both terminal and path constraints, then using direct transcription to develop an approximate nonlinear parameter optimization problem of finite dimension. Optimal ascent trajectories are determined using SNOPT for a variety of upwind, downwind, and crosswind launch locations. Results of extensive optimization solutions illustrate definitive patterns in the ascent path for minimum time flights across

  16. Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Nowack

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM. Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality.

  17. Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer Johannes; Abraham, Nathan Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John Adrian

    2016-03-01

    Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM). Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality.

  18. Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.

    2014-06-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  19. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  20. Laboratory investigation of nitrile ices of Titan's stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nna Mvondo, D.; Anderson, C. M.; McLain, J. L.; Samuelson, R. E.

    2017-09-01

    Titan's mid to lower stratosphere contains complex cloud systems of numerous organic ice particles comprised of both hydrocarbon and nitrile compounds. Most of these stratospheric ice clouds form as a result of vapor condensation formation processes. However, there are additional ice emission features such as dicyanoacetylene (C4N2) and the 220 cm-1 ice emission feature (the "Haystack") that are difficult to explain since there are no observed vapor emission features associated with these ices. In our laboratory, using a high-vacuum chamber coupled to a FTIR spectrometer, we are engaged in a dedicated investigation of Titan's stratospheric ices to interpret and constrain Cassini Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS) far-IR data. We will present laboratory transmittance spectra obtained for propionitrile (CH3CH2CN), cyanogen (C2N2) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) ices, as well as various combinations of their mixtures, to better understand the cloud chemistry occurring in Titan's stratosphere.

  1. Exposing Microorganisms in the Stratosphere for Planetary Protection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth’s stratosphere is similar to the surface of Mars: rarified air which is dry, cold, and irradiated. E-MIST is a balloon payload that has 4 independently...

  2. The natural stratosphere of 1974. CIAP monograph 1. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-09-01

    The Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) of the U.S. Department of Transportation is charged with the 'assessment' of the impact of future aircraft fleets and other vehicles operating in, or transiting through, the stratosphere. CIAP monograph 1 gives a survey, largely from an experimental standpoint, of what is known in 1974 about the unperturbed stratosphere with respect to an application to stratospheric flight. It reviews the overall structure of the stratosphere, its origin in terms of ozone photochemistry, solar irradiance and overall radiative energy balance, other chemically reactive minor species, and atmospheric motions on a variety of scales of time and distance. The limitations of our understanding are emphasized in the presentation. Also, the monograph examines briefly what is known about the effect of massive injections of nitrogen oxides (from atmospheric nuclear explosions) and sulfur oxides (from major volcanic eruptions)

  3. Is there any chlorine monoxide in the stratosphere?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumma, M. J.; Rogers, J. D.; Kostiuk, T.; Deming, D.; Hillman, J. J.; Zipoy, D.

    1983-01-01

    A ground-based search for stratospheric 35-ClO was carried out using an infrared heterodyne spectrometer in the solar absorption mode. Lines due to stratospheric HNO3 and tropospheric OCS were detected at about 0.2 percent absorptance levels, but the expected 0.1 percent lines of ClO in this same region were not seen. We find that stratospheric ClO is at least a factor of seven less abundant than is indicated by in situ measurements, and we set an upper limit of 2.3 x 10 to the 13th molecules/sq cm at the 95 percent confidence level for the integrated vertical column density of ClO. Our results imply that the release of chlorofluorocarbons may be significantly less important for the destruction of stratospheric ozone (O3) than is currently thought. Previously announced in STAR as N83-27518

  4. The Temperature of the Arctic and Antarctic Lower Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is the key factor in changing the magnitude of ozone loss in the polar vortices. In this talk, we will review the results of Newman et al. [2000] that quantitatively demonstrate that the polar lower stratospheric temperature is primarily controlled by planetary-scale waves. In particular, the tropospheric eddy heat flux in middle to late winter (January--February) is highly correlated with the mean polar stratospheric temperature during March. Strong midwinter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer spring Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak midwinter forcing leads to cooler spring Arctic temperatures. In addition, this planetary wave driving also has a strong impact on the strength of the polar vortex. These results from the Northern Hemisphere will be contrasted with the Southern Hemisphere.

  5. Simulations, evaluations and models. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brehmer, B.; Leplat, J.

    1992-01-01

    Papers presented at the Fourth MOHAWC (Models of Human Activities in Work Context) workshop. The general theme was simulations, evaluations and models. The emphasis was on time in relation to the modelling of human activities in modern, high tech. work. Such work often requires people to control dynamic systems, and the behaviour and misbehaviour of these systems in time is a principle focus of work in, for example, a modern process plant. The papers report on microworlds and on their innovative uses, both in the form of experiments and in the form of a new form of use, that of testing a program which performs diagnostic reasoning. They present new aspects on the problem of time in process control, showing the importance of considering the time scales of dynamic tasks, both in individual decision making and in distributed decision making, and in providing new formalisms, both for the representation of time and for reasoning involving time in diagnosis. (AB)

  6. The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Bittner, M.; Timmreck, C.; Schmidt, H.

    2014-12-01

    Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space-time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

  7. An evaluation of Tsyganenko magnetic field model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairfield, D.H.

    1991-01-01

    A long-standing goal of magnetospheric physics has been to produce a model of the Earth's magnetic field that can accurately predict the field vector at all locations within the magnetosphere for all dipole tilt angles and for various solar wind or magnetic activity conditions. A number of models make such predictions, but some only for limited spatial regions, some only for zero tilt angle, and some only for arbitrary conditions. No models depend explicitly on solar wind conditions. A data set of more than 22,000 vector averages of the magnetosphere magnetic field over 0.5 R E regions is used to evaluate Tsyganenko's 1982 and 1987 magnetospheric magnetic field models. The magnetic field predicted by the model in various regions is compared to observations to find systematic discrepancies which future models might address. While agreement is generally good, discrepancies are noted which include: (1) a lack of adequate field line stretching in the tail and ring current regions; (2) an inability to predict weak enough fields in the polar cusps; and (3) a deficiency of Kp as a predictor of the field configuration

  8. A methodology for spectral wave model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, S. A.; Edwards, K. L.; Rogers, W. E.

    2017-12-01

    Model evaluation is accomplished by comparing bulk parameters (e.g., significant wave height, energy period, and mean square slope (MSS)) calculated from the model energy spectra with those calculated from buoy energy spectra. Quality control of the observed data and choice of the frequency range from which the bulk parameters are calculated are critical steps in ensuring the validity of the model-data comparison. The compared frequency range of each observation and the analogous model output must be identical, and the optimal frequency range depends in part on the reliability of the observed spectra. National Data Buoy Center 3-m discus buoy spectra are unreliable above 0.3 Hz due to a non-optimal buoy response function correction. As such, the upper end of the spectrum should not be included when comparing a model to these data. Bioufouling of Waverider buoys must be detected, as it can harm the hydrodynamic response of the buoy at high frequencies, thereby rendering the upper part of the spectrum unsuitable for comparison. An important consideration is that the intentional exclusion of high frequency energy from a validation due to data quality concerns (above) can have major implications for validation exercises, especially for parameters such as the third and fourth moments of the spectrum (related to Stokes drift and MSS, respectively); final conclusions can be strongly altered. We demonstrate this by comparing outcomes with and without the exclusion, in a case where a Waverider buoy is believed to be free of biofouling. Determination of the appropriate frequency range is not limited to the observed spectra. Model evaluation involves considering whether all relevant frequencies are included. Guidance to make this decision is based on analysis of observed spectra. Two model frequency lower limits were considered. Energy in the observed spectrum below the model lower limit was calculated for each. For locations where long swell is a component of the wave

  9. Sulphur-rich volcanic eruptions and stratospheric aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, M. R.; Self, S.

    1984-01-01

    Data from direct measurements of stratospheric optical depth, Greenland ice-core acidity, and volcanological studies are compared, and it is shown that relatively small but sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions can have atmospheric effects equal to or even greater than much larger sulfur-poor eruptions. These small eruptions are probably the most frequent cause of increased stratospheric aerosols. The possible sources of the excess sulfur released in these eruptions are discussed.

  10. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) evaluations of multidimensional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valova, I.

    2012-01-01

    There are different logical methods for data structuring, but no one is perfect enough. Multidimensional model-MD of data is presentation of data in a form of cube (referred also as info-cube or hypercube) with data or in form of 'star' type scheme (referred as multidimensional scheme), by use of F-structures (Facts) and set of D-structures (Dimensions), based on the notion of hierarchy of D-structures. The data, being subject of analysis in a specific multidimensional model is located in a Cartesian space, being restricted by D-structures. In fact, the data is either dispersed or 'concentrated', therefore the data cells are not distributed evenly within the respective space. The moment of occurrence of any event is difficult to be predicted and the data is concentrated as per time periods, location of performed business event, etc. To process such dispersed or concentrated data, various technical strategies are needed. The basic methods for presentation of such data should be selected. The approaches of data processing and respective calculations are connected with different options for data representation. The use of intuitionistic fuzzy evaluations (IFE) provide us new possibilities for alternative presentation and processing of data, subject of analysis in any OLAP application. The use of IFE at the evaluation of multidimensional models will result in the following advantages: analysts will dispose with more complete information for processing and analysis of respective data; benefit for the managers is that the final decisions will be more effective ones; enabling design of more functional multidimensional schemes. The purpose of this work is to apply intuitionistic fuzzy evaluations of multidimensional model of data. (authors)

  11. Long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone at selected stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbrecht, W; Claude, H; Schönenborn, F; McDermid, I S; Leblanc, T; Godin, S; Song, T; Swart, D P J; Meijer, Y J; Bodeker, G E; Connor, B J; Kämpfer, N; Hocke, K; Calisesi, Y; Schneider, N; Noë, J de la; Parrish, A D; Boyd, I S; Brühl, C; Steil, B; Giorgetta, M A; Manzini, E; Thomason, L W; Zawodny, J M; McCormick, M P; Russell, J M; Bhartia, P K; Stolarski, R S; Hollandsworth-Frith, S M

    2006-01-01

    The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas

  12. Use of an operational model evaluation system for model intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foster, K. T., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) is a centralized emergency response system used to assess the impact from atmospheric releases of hazardous materials. As part of an on- going development program, new three-dimensional diagnostic windfield and Lagrangian particle dispersion models will soon replace ARAC`s current operational windfield and dispersion codes. A prototype model performance evaluation system has been implemented to facilitate the study of the capabilities and performance of early development versions of these new models relative to ARAC`s current operational codes. This system provides tools for both objective statistical analysis using common performance measures and for more subjective visualization of the temporal and spatial relationships of model results relative to field measurements. Supporting this system is a database of processed field experiment data (source terms and meteorological and tracer measurements) from over 100 individual tracer releases.

  13. Polar-night O3, NO2 and NO3 distributions during sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 as seen by GOMOS/Envisat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kyrölä

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW are large-scale transient events, which have a profound effect on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation in winter. During the SSW events the temperature in stratosphere increases by several tens of Kelvins and zonal winds decelerate or reverse in direction. Changes in temperature and dynamics significantly affect the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere. In this paper, the response of the middle-atmosphere trace gases during several sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 is investigated using measurements from the GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument on board the Envisat satellite. We have analyzed spatial and temporal changes of NO2 and NO3 in the stratosphere, and of ozone in the whole middle atmosphere. To facilitate our analyses, we have used the temperature profiles data from the MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on board the Aura satellite, as well as simulations by the FinROSE chemistry-transport model and the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model (SIC. NO3 observations in the polar winter stratosphere during SSWs are reported for the first time. Changes in chemical composition are found not to be restricted to the stratosphere, but to extend to mesosphere and lower thermosphere. They often exhibit a complicated structure, because the distribution of trace gases is affected by changes in both chemistry and dynamics. The tertiary ozone maximum in the mesosphere often disappears with the onset of SSW, probably because of strong mixing processes. The strong horizontal mixing with outside-vortex air is well observed also in NO2 data, especially in cases of enhanced NO2 inside the polar vortex before SSW. Almost in all of the considered events, ozone near the secondary maximum decreases with onset of SSW. In both experimental data and FinROSE modelling, ozone changes are positively correlated with temperature changes in the lower stratosphere

  14. Evaluation of models of waste glass durability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellison, A.

    1995-01-01

    The main variable under the control of the waste glass producer is the composition of the glass; thus a need exists to establish functional relationships between the composition of a waste glass and measures of processability, product consistency, and durability. Many years of research show that the structure and properties of a glass depend on its composition, so it seems reasonable to assume that there also is relationship between the composition of a waste glass and its resistance to attack by an aqueous solution. Several models have been developed to describe this dependence, and an evaluation their predictive capabilities is the subject of this paper. The objective is to determine whether any of these models describe the ''correct'' functional relationship between composition and corrosion rate. A more thorough treatment of the relationships between glass composition and durability has been presented elsewhere, and the reader is encouraged to consult it for a more detailed discussion. The models examined in this study are the free energy of hydration model, developed at the Savannah River Laboratory, the structural bond strength model, developed at the Vitreous State Laboratory at the Catholic University of America, and the Composition Variation Study, developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory

  15. Evaluation of onset of nucleate boiling models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, LiDong [Heat Transfer Research, Inc., College Station, TX (United States)], e-mail: lh@htri.net

    2009-07-01

    This article discusses available models and correlations for predicting the required heat flux or wall superheat for the Onset of Nucleate Boiling (ONB) on plain surfaces. It reviews ONB data in the open literature and discusses the continuing efforts of Heat Transfer Research, Inc. in this area. Our ONB database contains ten individual sources for ten test fluids and a wide range of operating conditions for different geometries, e.g., tube side and shell side flow boiling and falling film evaporation. The article also evaluates literature models and correlations based on the data: no single model in the open literature predicts all data well. The prediction uncertainty is especially higher in vacuum conditions. Surface roughness is another critical criterion in determining which model should be used. However, most models do not directly account for surface roughness, and most investigators do not provide surface roughness information in their published findings. Additional experimental research is needed to improve confidence in predicting the required wall superheats for nucleation boiling for engineering design purposes. (author)

  16. Evaluation of onset of nucleate boiling models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, LiDong

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses available models and correlations for predicting the required heat flux or wall superheat for the Onset of Nucleate Boiling (ONB) on plain surfaces. It reviews ONB data in the open literature and discusses the continuing efforts of Heat Transfer Research, Inc. in this area. Our ONB database contains ten individual sources for ten test fluids and a wide range of operating conditions for different geometries, e.g., tube side and shell side flow boiling and falling film evaporation. The article also evaluates literature models and correlations based on the data: no single model in the open literature predicts all data well. The prediction uncertainty is especially higher in vacuum conditions. Surface roughness is another critical criterion in determining which model should be used. However, most models do not directly account for surface roughness, and most investigators do not provide surface roughness information in their published findings. Additional experimental research is needed to improve confidence in predicting the required wall superheats for nucleation boiling for engineering design purposes. (author)

  17. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  18. Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chung-Cheng A.; Qian, Wen; Glenn, Scott M.

    1994-01-01

    The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

  19. Evaluating Translational Research: A Process Marker Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trochim, William; Kane, Cathleen; Graham, Mark J.; Pincus, Harold A.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Objective: We examine the concept of translational research from the perspective of evaluators charged with assessing translational efforts. One of the major tasks for evaluators involved in translational research is to help assess efforts that aim to reduce the time it takes to move research to practice and health impacts. Another is to assess efforts that are intended to increase the rate and volume of translation. Methods: We offer an alternative to the dominant contemporary tendency to define translational research in terms of a series of discrete “phases.”Results: We contend that this phased approach has been confusing and that it is insufficient as a basis for evaluation. Instead, we argue for the identification of key operational and measurable markers along a generalized process pathway from research to practice. Conclusions: This model provides a foundation for the evaluation of interventions designed to improve translational research and the integration of these findings into a field of translational studies. Clin Trans Sci 2011; Volume 4: 153–162 PMID:21707944

  20. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Garfinkel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer–Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  1. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Gordon, Amit; Oman, Luke D.; Li, Feng; Davis, Sean; Pawson, Steven

    2018-04-01

    A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  2. In-situ observation of Asian pollution transported into the Arctic lowermost stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Roiger

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available On a research flight on 10 July 2008, the German research aircraft Falcon sampled an air mass with unusually high carbon monoxide (CO, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN and water vapour (H2O mixing ratios in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere. The air mass was encountered twice at an altitude of 11.3 km, ~800 m above the dynamical tropopause. In-situ measurements of ozone, NO, and NOy indicate that this layer was a mixed air mass containing both air from the troposphere and stratosphere. Backward trajectory and Lagrangian particle dispersion model analysis suggest that the Falcon sampled the top of a polluted air mass originating from the coastal regions of East Asia. The anthropogenic pollution plume experienced strong up-lift in a warm conveyor belt (WCB located over the Russian east-coast. Subsequently the Asian air mass was transported across the North Pole into the sampling area, elevating the local tropopause by up to ~3 km. Mixing with surrounding Arctic stratospheric air most likely took place during the horizontal transport when the tropospheric streamer was stretched into long and narrow filaments. The mechanism illustrated in this study possibly presents an important pathway to transport pollution into the polar tropopause region.

  3. Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment (SCoPEx): overview, status, and results from related laboratory experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, D.; Dykema, J. A.; Keutsch, F. N.

    2017-12-01

    Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx), is a scientific experiment to advance understanding of stratospheric aerosols. It aims to make quantitative measurements of aerosol microphysics and atmospheric chemistry to improve large-scale models used to assess the risks and benefits of solar geoengineering. A perturbative experiment requires: (a) means to create a well-mixed, small perturbed volume, and (b) observation of time evolution of chemistry and aerosols in the volume. SCoPEx will used a propelled balloon gondola containing all instruments and drive system. The propeller wake forms a well-mixed volume (roughly 1 km long and 100 meters in diameter) that serves as an experimental `beaker' into which aerosols (e.g., budget, etc; (d) results from CFD simulation of propeller wake and simulation of chemistry and aerosol microphysics; and finally (e) proposed concept of operations and schedule. We will also provide an overview of the plans for governance including management of health safety and environmental risks, transparency, public engagement, and larger questions about governance of solar geoengineering experiments. Finally, we will briefly present results of laboratory experiments of the interaction of chemical such as ClONO2 and HCl on particle surfaces relevant for stratospheric solar geoengineering.

  4. Influence of isentropic transport on seasonal ozone variations in the lower stratosphere and subtropical upper troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, P.; Cunnold, D. M.; Yang, E.-S.; Wang, H.-J.

    2005-01-01

    The isentropic cross-tropopause ozone transport has been estimated in both hemispheres in 1999 based on the potential vorticity mapping of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 11 ozone measurements and contour advection calculations using the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Global and Modeling Assimilation Office analysis. The estimated net isentropic stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux is approx.118 +/- 61 x 10(exp9)kg/yr globally within the layer between 330 and 370 K in 1999; 60% of it is found in the Northern Hemisphere, and 40% is found in the Southern Hemisphere. The monthly average ozone fluxes are strongest in summer and weakest in winter in both hemispheres. The seasonal variations of ozone in the lower stratosphere (LS) and upper troposphere (UT) have been analyzed using ozonesonde observations from ozonesonde stations in the extratropics and subtropics, respectively. It is shown that observed ozone levels increase in the UT over subtropical ozonesonde stations and decrease in the LS over extratropical stations in late spring/early summer and that the ozone increases in the summertime subtropical UT are unlikely to be explained by photochemical ozone production and diabatic transport alone. We conclude that isentropic transport is a significant contributor to ozone levels in the subtropical upper troposphere, especially in summer.

  5. Potential For Stratospheric Ozone Depletion During Carboniferous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bill, M.; Goldstein, A. H.

    Methyl bromide (CH3Br) constitutes the largest source of bromine atoms to the strato- sphere whereas methyl chloride (CH3Cl) is the most abundant halocarbon in the tro- posphere. Both gases play an important role in stratospheric ozone depletion. For in- stance, Br coupled reactions are responsible for 30 to 50 % of total ozone loss in the polar vortex. Currently, the largest natural sources of CH3Br and CH3Cl appear to be biological production in the oceans, inorganic production during biomass burning and plant production in salt marsh ecosystems. Variations of paleofluxes of CH3Br and CH3Cl can be estimated by analyses of oceanic paleoproductivity, stratigraphic analyses of frequency and distribution of fossil charcoal indicating the occurrence of wildfires, and/or by paleoreconstruction indicating the extent of salt marshes. Dur- ing the lower Carboniferous time (Tournaisian-Visean), the southern margin of the Laurasian continent was characterized by charcoal deposits. Estimation on frequency of charcoal layers indicates that wildfires occur in a range of 3-35 years (Falcon-Lang 2000). This suggests that biomass burning could be an important source of CH3Br and CH3Cl during Tournaisian-Viesan time. During Tounaisian and until Merame- cian carbon and oxygen isotope records have short term oscillations (Bruckschen et al. 1999, Mii et al. 1999). Chesterian time (mid- Carboniferous) is marked by an in- crease in delta18O values ( ~ 2 permil) and an increase of glacial deposit frequency suggesting lower temperatures. The occurrence of glacial deposits over the paleopole suggests polar conditions and the associated special features of polar mete- orology such as strong circumpolar wind in the stratosphere (polar vortex) and polar stratospheric clouds. Thus, conditions leading to polar statospheric ozone depletion can be found. Simultaneously an increase in delta13C values is documented. We interpret the positive shift in delta13C as a result of higher bioproductivity

  6. Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies Evaluation Number 16. Supplement to Evaluation 15: Update of Key Reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, S. P.; Friedl, R. R.; Barker, J. R.; Golden, D. M.; Kurylo, M. J.; Wine, P. H.; Abbatt, J.; Burkholder, J. B.; Kolb, C. E.; Moortgat, G. K.; hide

    2009-01-01

    This is the supplement to the fifteenth in a series of evaluated sets of rate constants and photochemical cross sections compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation. The data are used primarily to model stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes, with particular emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena. Copies of this evaluation are available in electronic form and may be printed from the following Internet URL: http://jpldataeval.jpl.nasa.gov/.

  7. REPFLO model evaluation, physical and numerical consistency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.N.; Holland, D.H.

    1978-11-01

    This report contains a description of some suggested changes and an evaluation of the REPFLO computer code, which models ground-water flow and nuclear-waste migration in and about a nuclear-waste repository. The discussion contained in the main body of the report is supplemented by a flow chart, presented in the Appendix of this report. The suggested changes are of four kinds: (1) technical changes to make the code compatible with a wider variety of digital computer systems; (2) changes to fill gaps in the computer code, due to missing proprietary subroutines; (3) changes to (a) correct programming errors, (b) correct logical flaws, and (c) remove unnecessary complexity; and (4) changes in the computer code logical structure to make REPFLO a more viable model from the physical point of view

  8. Water vapor increase in the northern hemispheric lower stratosphere by the Asian monsoon anticyclone observed during TACTS campaign in 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolf, Christian; Vogel, Bärbel; Hoor, Peter; Günther, Gebhard; Krämer, Martina; Müller, Rolf; Müller, Stephan; Riese, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Water vapor plays a key role in determining the radiative balance in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and thus the climate of the Earth (Forster and Shine, 2002; Riese et al., 2012). Therefore a detailed knowledge about transport pathways and exchange processes between troposphere and stratosphere is required to understand the variability of water vapor in this region. The Asian monsoon anticyclone caused by deep convection over and India and east Asia is able to transport air masses from the troposphere into the nothern extra-tropical stratosphere (Müller et al. 2016, Vogel et al. 2016). These air masses contain pollution but also higher amounts of water vapor. An increase in water vapor of about 0.5 ppmv in the extra-tropical stratosphere above a potential temperature of 380 K was detected between August and September 2012 by in-situ instrumentation above the European northern hemisphere during the HALO aircraft mission TACTS. Here, we investigated the origin of this water vapor increase with the help of the 3D Lagrangian chemistry transport model CLaMS (McKenna et al., 2002). We can assign an origin of the moist air masses in the Asian region (North and South India and East China) with the help of model origin tracers. Additionally, back trajectories of these air masses with enriched water vapor are used to differentiate between transport from the Asia monsoon anticyclone and the upwelling of moister air in the tropics particularly from the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

  9. Turbulent vertical diffusivity in the sub-tropical stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Pisso

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Vertical (cross-isentropic mixing is produced by small-scale turbulent processes which are still poorly understood and paramaterized in numerical models. In this work we provide estimates of local equivalent diffusion in the lower stratosphere by comparing balloon borne high-resolution measurements of chemical tracers with reconstructed mixing ratio from large ensembles of random Lagrangian backward trajectories using European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts analysed winds and a chemistry-transport model (REPROBUS. We focus on a case study in subtropical latitudes using data from HIBISCUS campaign. An upper bound on the vertical diffusivity is found in this case study to be of the order of 0.5 m2 s−1 in the subtropical region, which is larger than the estimates at higher latitudes. The relation between diffusion and dispersion is studied by estimating Lyapunov exponents and studying their variation according to the presence of active dynamical structures.

  10. CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenburn, M.W.; Bunting, M.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.

    1997-10-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia`s Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, top-level, modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM`s unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, infrasound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection) and location accuracy of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system`s performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. This report describes version 1.2 of IVSEM.

  11. An evaluation framework for participatory modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, T.; Inman, A.; Chilvers, J.

    2012-04-01

    Strong arguments for participatory modelling in hydrology can be made on substantive, instrumental and normative grounds. These arguments have led to increasingly diverse groups of stakeholders (here anyone affecting or affected by an issue) getting involved in hydrological research and the management of water resources. In fact, participation has become a requirement of many research grants, programs, plans and policies. However, evidence of beneficial outcomes of participation as suggested by the arguments is difficult to generate and therefore rare. This is because outcomes are diverse, distributed, often tacit, and take time to emerge. In this paper we develop an evaluation framework for participatory modelling focussed on learning outcomes. Learning encompasses many of the potential benefits of participation, such as better models through diversity of knowledge and scrutiny, stakeholder empowerment, greater trust in models and ownership of subsequent decisions, individual moral development, reflexivity, relationships, social capital, institutional change, resilience and sustainability. Based on the theories of experiential, transformative and social learning, complemented by practitioner experience our framework examines if, when and how learning has occurred. Special emphasis is placed on the role of models as learning catalysts. We map the distribution of learning between stakeholders, scientists (as a subgroup of stakeholders) and models. And we analyse what type of learning has occurred: instrumental learning (broadly cognitive enhancement) and/or communicative learning (change in interpreting meanings, intentions and values associated with actions and activities; group dynamics). We demonstrate how our framework can be translated into a questionnaire-based survey conducted with stakeholders and scientists at key stages of the participatory process, and show preliminary insights from applying the framework within a rural pollution management situation in

  12. Possible effect of strong solar energetic particle events on polar stratospheric aerosol: a summary of observational results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mironova, I A; Usoskin, I G

    2014-01-01

    This letter presents a summary of a phenomenological study of the response of the polar stratosphere to strong solar energetic particle (SEP) events corresponding to ground level enhancements (GLEs) of cosmic rays. This work is focused on evaluation of the possible influence of the atmospheric ionization caused by SEPs upon formation of aerosol particles in the stratosphere over polar regions. Following case studies of two major SEP/GLE events, in January 2005 and September 1989, and their possible effects on polar stratospheric aerosols, we present here the results of an analysis of variations of the daily profiles of the stratospheric aerosol parameters (aerosol extinction for different wavelengths, as well as Ångstrom exponent) for both polar hemispheres during SEP/GLE events of July 2000, April 2001 and October 2003, which form already five clear cases corresponding to extreme and strong SEP/GLE events. The obtained results suggest that an enhancement of ionization rate by a factor of about two in the polar region with night/cold/winter conditions can lead to the formation/growing of aerosol particles in the altitude range of 10–25 km. We also present a summary of the investigated effects based on the phenomenological study of the atmospheric application of extreme SEP events. (paper)

  13. A distribution law for relative humidity in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere derived from three years of MOZAIC measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Gierens

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available Data from three years of MOZAIC measurements made it possible to determine a distribution law for the relative humidity in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Data amounting to 13.5% of the total were obtained in regions with ice supersaturation. Troposphere and stratosphere are distinguished by an ozone concentration of 130 ppbv as threshold. The probability of measuring a certain amount of ice supersaturation in the troposphere decreases exponentially with the degree of ice supersaturation. The probability of measuring a certain relative humidity in the stratosphere (both with respect to water and ice decreases exponentially with the relative humidity. A stochastic model that naturally leads to the exponential distribution is provided. Mean supersaturation in the troposphere is about 15%, whereas ice nucleation requires 30% supersaturation on the average. This explains the frequency of regions in which aircraft induce persistent contrails but which are otherwise free of clouds. Ice supersaturated regions are 3-4 K colder and contain more than 50% more vapour than other regions in the upper troposphere. The stratospheric air masses sampled are dry, as expected, having mean relative humidity over water of 12% and over ice of 23%, respectively. However, 2% of the stratospheric data indicate ice supersaturation. As the MOZAIC measurements have been obtained on commercial flights mainly between Europe and North America, the data do not provide a complete global picture, but the exponential character of the distribution laws found is probably valid globally. Since water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas and since it might enhance the anthropogenic greenhouse effects via positive feedback mechanisms, it is important to represent its distribution correctly in climate models. The discovery of the distribution law of the relative humidity makes possible simple tests to show whether the hydrological cycle in climate models is

  14. Modulations of stratospheric ozone by volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchette, Christian; Mcconnell, John C.

    1994-01-01

    We have used a time series of aerosol surface based on the measurements of Hofmann to investigate the modulation of total column ozone caused by the perturbation to gas phase chemistry by the reaction N2O5(gas) + H2O(aero) yields 2HNO3(gas) on the surface of stratospheric aerosols. We have tested a range of values for its reaction probability, gamma = 0.02, 0.13, and 0.26 which we compared to unperturbed homogeneous chemistry. Our analysis spans a period from Jan. 1974 to Oct. 1994. The results suggest that if lower values of gamma are the norm then we would expect larger ozone losses for highly enhanced aerosol content that for larger values of gamma. The ozone layer is more sensitive to the magnitude of the reaction probability under background conditions than during volcanically active periods. For most conditions, the conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is saturated for reaction probability in the range of laboratory measurements, but is only absolutely saturated following major volcanic eruptions when the heterogeneous loss dominates the losses of N2O5. The ozone loss due to this heterogeneous reaction increases with the increasing chlorine load. Total ozone losses calculated are comparable to ozone losses reported from TOMS and Dobson data.

  15. Emergency medical support for a manned stratospheric balloon test program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blue, Rebecca S; Norton, Sean C; Law, Jennifer; Pattarini, James M; Antonsen, Erik L; Garbino, Alejandro; Clark, Jonathan B; Turney, Matthew W

    2014-10-01

    Red Bull Stratos was a commercial program that brought a test parachutist, protected by a full-pressure suit, in a stratospheric balloon with pressurized capsule to over 127,582 ft (38,969 m), from which he free fell and subsequently parachuted to the ground. Given that the major risks to the parachutist included ebullism, negative Gz (toe-to-head) acceleration exposure from an uncontrolled flat spin, and trauma, a comprehensive plan was developed to recover the parachutist under nominal conditions and to respond to any medical contingencies that might have arisen. In this report, the project medical team describes the experience of providing emergency medical support and crew recovery for the manned balloon flights of the program. The phases of flight, associated risks, and available resources were systematically evaluated. Six distinct phases of flight from an Emergency Medical Services (EMS) standpoint were identified. A Medical Support Plan was developed to address the risks associated with each phase, encompassing personnel, equipment, procedures, and communications. Despite geographical, communications, and resource limitations, the medical team was able to implement the Medical Support Plan, enabling multiple successful manned balloon flights to 71,615 ft (21,828 m), 97,221 ft (29,610 m), and 127,582 ft (38,969 m). The experience allowed refinement of the EMS and crew recovery procedures for each successive flight and could be applied to other high altitude or commercial space ventures.

  16. The Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelhaf, Hermann; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Rapp, Markus; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Engel, Andreas; Boenisch, Harald

    2015-04-01

    The POLSTRACC mission aims at providing new scientific knowledge on the Arctic lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and upper troposphere under the present load of halogens and state of climate variables. POLSTRACC is the only HALO (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft, German Research Community) mission dedicated to study the UTLS at high latitudes several years after the last intensive Arctic campaigns. The scientific scope of POLSTRACC will be broadened by its combination with the SALSA (Seasonality of Air mass transport and origin in the Lowermost Stratosphere using the HALO Aircraft) and GW-LCYCLE (Gravity Wave Life Cycle Experiment, a BMBF/ROMIC project) missions, which address complementary scientific goals sharing the same HALO payload. POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE will offer the unique opportunity to study the bottom of the polar vortex and the high-latitude UTLS along with their impact on lower latitudes throughout an entire winter/spring cycle. The POLSTRACC consortium includes national (KIT, Forschungszentrum Jülich, DLR, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Universities of Frankfurt, Heidelberg, Mainz and Wuppertal) and international partners (e.g. NASA). The payload for the combined POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE campaigns comprises an innovative combination of remote sensing techniques providing 2- and 3-D distributions of temperature and a large number of substances, and precise in-situ instruments measuring T, O3, H2O, tracers of different lifetimes and chemically active species at the aircraft level with high time-resolution. Drop sondes will add information about temperature, humidity and wind in the atmosphere underneath the aircraft. The field campaign will be divided into three phases for addressing (i) the early polar vortex and its wide-scale vicinity in December 2015 (from Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), (ii) the mid-winter vortex from January to March 2016 (from Kiruna, Sweden), and (iii) the late dissipating vortex and its wide

  17. Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies: Evaluation Number 18

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkholder, J. B.; Sander, S. P.; Abbatt, J. P. D.; Barker, J. R.; Huie, R. E.; Kolb, C. E.; Kurylo, M. J.; Orkin, V. L.; Wilmouth, D. M.; Wine, P. H.

    2015-01-01

    This is the eighteenth in a series of evaluated sets of rate constants, photochemical cross sections, heterogeneous parameters, and thermochemical parameters compiled by the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation. The data are used primarily to model stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes, with particular emphasis on the ozone layer and its possible perturbation by anthropogenic and natural phenomena. The evaluation is available in electronic form from the following Internet URL: http://jpldataeval.jpl.nasa.gov/

  18. Do minor sudden stratospheric warmings in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) impact coupling between stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) like major warmings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Liu, Huixin; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Lee, Jaewook

    2017-08-01

    We have investigated the coupling between the stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during 2010 minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Three episodic SSWs were noticed in 2010. Mesospheric zonal winds between 82 and 92 km obtained from King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) meteor radar showed the significant difference from usual trend. The zonal wind reversal in the mesosphere is noticed a week before the associated SSW similar to 2002 major SSW. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km is simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to 2002 major SSW.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  19. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2018-04-01

    Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.

  20. Global two-channel AVHRR aerosol climatology: effects of stratospheric aerosols and preliminary comparisons with MODIS and MISR retrievals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Mishchenko, Michael I.; Liu Li; Remer, Lorraine

    2004-01-01

    We present an update on the status of the global climatology of the aerosol column optical thickness and Angstrom exponent derived from channel-1 and -2 radiances of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) in the framework of the Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP). The latest version of the climatology covers the period from July 1983 to September 2001 and is based on an adjusted value of the diffuse component of the ocean reflectance as derived from extensive comparisons with ship sun-photometer data. We use the updated GACP climatology and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) data to analyze how stratospheric aerosols from major volcanic eruptions can affect the GACP aerosol product. One possible retrieval strategy based on the AVHRR channel-1 and -2 data alone is to infer both the stratospheric and the tropospheric aerosol optical thickness while assuming fixed microphysical models for both aerosol components. The second approach is to use the SAGE stratospheric aerosol data in order to constrain the AVHRR retrieval algorithm. We demonstrate that the second approach yields a consistent long-term record of the tropospheric aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent. Preliminary comparisons of the GACP aerosol product with MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer aerosol retrievals show reasonable agreement, the GACP global monthly optical thickness being lower than the MODIS one by approximately 0.03. Larger differences are observed on a regional scale. Comparisons of the GACP and MODIS Angstrom exponent records are less conclusive and require further analysis

  1. Unexpected high 35S concentration revealing strong downward transport of stratospheric air during the monsoon transitional period in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mang; Zhang, Zhisheng; Su, Lin; Su, Binbin; Liu, Lanzhong; Tao, Jun; Fung, Jimmy C. H.; Thiemens, Mark H.

    2016-03-01

    October is the monsoon transitional period in East Asia (EA) involving a series of synoptic activities that may enhance the downward transport of stratospheric air to the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we use cosmogenic 35S in sulfate aerosols (35SO42-) as a tracer for air masses originating from the stratosphere and transported downward to quantify these mixing processes. From 1 year 35SO42- measurements (March 2014 to February 2015) at a background station in EA we find remarkably enhanced 35SO42- concentration (3150 atoms m-3) in October, the highest value ever reported for natural sulfate aerosols. A four-box 1-D model and meteorological analysis reveal that strong downward transport from the free troposphere is a vital process entraining aged stratospheric air masses to the PBL. The aged stratospheric masses are accumulated in the PBL, accelerating the SO2 transformation to SO42-. Implications for the tropospheric O3 budget and the CO2 biogeochemical cycle are discussed.

  2. Effect of coupled anthropogenic perturbations on stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Luther, F.M.; Penner, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Since 1976 the greatest concern about potential perturbations to stratospheric ozone has been in regard to the atmospheric release of chlorofluorocarbons. Consequently, atmospheric measurements of ozone have usually been compared with model calculations in which only chlorocarbon perturbations are considered. However, in order to compare theoretical calculations with recent measurements of ozone and to project expected changes to atmospheric ozone levels over the next few decades, one must consider the effect from other perturbations as well. In this paper, the authors consider the coupling between several possible anthropogenic atmospheric perturbations. Namely, they examine the effects of past and possible future increases of chlorocarbons, CO 2 , N 2 O, and NO x . The focus of these calculations is on the potential changes in ozone due to chlorocarbon emissions, how other anthropogenic perturbations may have influenced the actual change in ozone over the last decade, and how these perturbations may influence future changes in ozone. Although calculations including future chlorocarbon emissions alone result in significant reductions in ozone, there is very little change in total ozone over the coming decades when other anthropogenic sources are included. Increasing CO 2 concentrations have the largest offsetting effect on the change in total ozone due to chlorocarbons. Owing to the necessity of considering emissions from a number of trace gases simultaneously, determining expected global-scale chemical and climatic effects is more complex than was previously recognized

  3. Evaluation of Student's Environment by DEA Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Moradi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The important question here is, is there real evaluation in educational advance? In other words, if a student has been successful in mathematics or has been unsuccessful in mathematics, is it possible to find the reasons behind his advance or, is it possible to find the reasons behind his advance or weakness? If we want to respond to this significant question, it should be said that factors of educational advance must be divided into 5 main groups. 1-family, 2-teacher, 3- students 4-school and 5-manager of 3 schools It can then be said that a student's score does not just depend on a factor that people have imaged From this, it can be concluded that by using the DEA and SBM models, each student's efficiency must be researched and the factors of the student's strengths and weaknesses must be analyzed.

  4. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graziani, G; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 - 1999 RTMOD project is a system based on an automated statistical evaluation for the inter-comparison of real-time forecasts produced by long-range atmospheric dispersion models for national nuclear emergency predictions of cross-boundary consequences. The background of RTMOD was the 1994 ETEX project that involved about 50 models run in several Institutes around the world to simulate two real tracer releases involving a large part of the European territory. In the preliminary phase of ETEX, three dry runs (i.e. simulations in real-time of fictitious releases) were carried out. At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax and regular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-based user-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration predictions at the nodes of a regular grid with 0.5 degrees of resolution both in latitude and in longitude, the domain grid extending from 5W to 40E and 40N to 65N. Hypothetical releases were notified around the world to the 28 model forecasters via the web on a one-day warning in advance. They then accessed the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modelers. When additional forecast data arrived, already existing statistical results would be recalculated to include the influence by all available predictions. The new web-based RTMOD concept has proven useful as a practical decision-making tool for realtime

  5. Application of Multiple Evaluation Models in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Victal Saliba

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on two different samples, this article tests the performance of a number of Value Drivers commonly used for evaluating companies by finance practitioners, through simple regression models of cross-section type which estimate the parameters associated to each Value Driver, denominated Market Multiples. We are able to diagnose the behavior of several multiples in the period 1994-2004, with an outlook also on the particularities of the economic activities performed by the sample companies (and their impacts on the performance through a subsequent analysis with segregation of companies in the sample by sectors. Extrapolating simple multiples evaluation standards from analysts of the main financial institutions in Brazil, we find that adjusting the ratio formulation to allow for an intercept does not provide satisfactory results in terms of pricing errors reduction. Results found, in spite of evidencing certain relative and absolute superiority among the multiples, may not be generically representative, given samples limitation.

  6. Stratospheric ozone: History and concepts and interactions with climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekki S.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Although in relatively low concentration of a few molecules per million of e e air molecules, atmospheric ozone (trioxygen O3 is essential to sustaining life on the surface of the Earth. Indeed, by absorbing solar radiation between 240 and 320 nm, it shields living organisms including humans from the very harmful ultraviolet radiation UV-B. About 90% of the ozone resides in the stratosphere, a region that extends from the tropopause, whose altitude ranges from 7 km at the poles to 17 km in the tropics, to the stratopause located at about 50 km altitude. Stratospheric ozone is communally referred as the « ozone layer ». Unlike the atmosphere surrounding it, the stratosphere is vertically stratified and stable because the temperature increases with height within it. This particularity originates from heating produced by the absorption of UV radiation by stratospheric ozone. The present chapter describes the main mechanisms that govern the natural balance of ozone in the stratosphere, and its disruption under the influence of human activities.

  7. 30-year lidar observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer state over Tomsk (Western Siberia, Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuev, Vladimir V.; Burlakov, Vladimir D.; Nevzorov, Aleksei V.; Pravdin, Vladimir L.; Savelieva, Ekaterina S.; Gerasimov, Vladislav V.

    2017-02-01

    There are only four lidar stations in the world which have almost continuously performed observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer (SAL) state over the last 30 years. The longest time series of the SAL lidar measurements have been accumulated at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) since 1973, the NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton, Virginia) since 1974, and Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany) since 1976. The fourth lidar station we present started to perform routine observations of the SAL parameters in Tomsk (56.48° N, 85.05° E, Western Siberia, Russia) in 1986. In this paper, we mainly focus on and discuss the stratospheric background period from 2000 to 2005 and the causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk in the 2006-2015 period. During the last decade, volcanic aerosol plumes from tropical Mt. Manam, Soufrière Hills, Rabaul, Merapi, Nabro, and Kelut and extratropical (northern) Mt. Okmok, Kasatochi, Redoubt, Sarychev Peak, Eyjafjallajökull, and Grímsvötn were detected in the stratosphere over Tomsk. When it was possible, we used the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model to assign aerosol layers observed over Tomsk to the corresponding volcanic eruptions. The trajectory analysis highlighted some surprising results. For example, in the cases of the Okmok, Kasatochi, and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, the HYSPLIT air mass backward trajectories, started from altitudes of aerosol layers detected over Tomsk with a lidar, passed over these volcanoes on their eruption days at altitudes higher than the maximum plume altitudes given by the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program. An explanation of these facts is suggested. The role of both tropical and northern volcanic eruptions in volcanogenic aerosol loading of the midlatitude stratosphere is also discussed. In addition to volcanoes, we considered other possible causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk, i.e., the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) events and smoke plumes from strong forest fires. At least

  8. A global space-based stratospheric aerosol climatology: 1979-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomason, Larry W.; Ernest, Nicholas; Millán, Luis; Rieger, Landon; Bourassa, Adam; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Manney, Gloria; Luo, Beiping; Arfeuille, Florian; Peter, Thomas

    2018-03-01

    We describe the construction of a continuous 38-year record of stratospheric aerosol optical properties. The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology, or GloSSAC, provided the input data to the construction of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project stratospheric aerosol forcing data set (1979-2014) and we have extended it through 2016 following an identical process. GloSSAC focuses on the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) series of instruments through mid-2005, and on the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) data thereafter. We also use data from other space instruments and from ground-based, air, and balloon borne instruments to fill in key gaps in the data set. The end result is a global and gap-free data set focused on aerosol extinction coefficient at 525 and 1020 nm and other parameters on an "as available" basis. For the primary data sets, we developed a new method for filling the post-Pinatubo eruption data gap for 1991-1993 based on data from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer. In addition, we developed a new method for populating wintertime high latitudes during the SAGE period employing a latitude-equivalent latitude conversion process that greatly improves the depiction of aerosol at high latitudes compared to earlier similar efforts. We report data in the troposphere only when and where it is available. This is primarily during the SAGE II period except for the most enhanced part of the Pinatubo period. It is likely that the upper troposphere during Pinatubo was greatly enhanced over non-volcanic periods and that domain remains substantially under-characterized. We note that aerosol levels during the OSIRIS/CALIPSO period in the lower stratosphere at mid- and high latitudes is routinely higher than what we observed during the SAGE II period. While this period had nearly continuous low-level volcanic activity, it

  9. A global space-based stratospheric aerosol climatology: 1979–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. W. Thomason

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe the construction of a continuous 38-year record of stratospheric aerosol optical properties. The Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology, or GloSSAC, provided the input data to the construction of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project stratospheric aerosol forcing data set (1979–2014 and we have extended it through 2016 following an identical process. GloSSAC focuses on the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE series of instruments through mid-2005, and on the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO data thereafter. We also use data from other space instruments and from ground-based, air, and balloon borne instruments to fill in key gaps in the data set. The end result is a global and gap-free data set focused on aerosol extinction coefficient at 525 and 1020 nm and other parameters on an "as available" basis. For the primary data sets, we developed a new method for filling the post-Pinatubo eruption data gap for 1991–1993 based on data from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer. In addition, we developed a new method for populating wintertime high latitudes during the SAGE period employing a latitude-equivalent latitude conversion process that greatly improves the depiction of aerosol at high latitudes compared to earlier similar efforts. We report data in the troposphere only when and where it is available. This is primarily during the SAGE II period except for the most enhanced part of the Pinatubo period. It is likely that the upper troposphere during Pinatubo was greatly enhanced over non-volcanic periods and that domain remains substantially under-characterized. We note that aerosol levels during the OSIRIS/CALIPSO period in the lower stratosphere at mid- and high latitudes is routinely higher than what we observed during the SAGE II period. While this period had nearly continuous low

  10. World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-12-01

    The World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) is an aggregate demand-based partial equilibrium model used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to project long-term domestic and international nuclear energy requirements. WINES follows a top-down approach in which economic growth rates, delivered energy demand growth rates, and electricity demand are projected successively to ultimately forecast total nuclear generation and nuclear capacity. WINES could be potentially used to produce forecasts for any country or region in the world. Presently, WINES is being used to generate long-term forecasts for the United States, and for all countries with commercial nuclear programs in the world, excluding countries located in centrally planned economic areas. Projections for the United States are developed for the period from 2010 through 2030, and for other countries for the period starting in 2000 or 2005 (depending on the country) through 2010. EIA uses a pipeline approach to project nuclear capacity for the period between 1990 and the starting year for which the WINES model is used. This approach involves a detailed accounting of existing nuclear generating units and units under construction, their capacities, their actual or estimated time of completion, and the estimated date of retirements. Further detail on this approach can be found in Appendix B of Commercial Nuclear Power 1991: Prospects for the United States and the World

  11. Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set is a merged record of stratospheric ozone and water vapor measurements taken by a number of...

  12. Evaluation of clinical information modeling tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Conde, Alberto; Austin, Tony; Moreno-Conde, Jesús; Parra-Calderón, Carlos L; Kalra, Dipak

    2016-11-01

    Clinical information models are formal specifications for representing the structure and semantics of the clinical content within electronic health record systems. This research aims to define, test, and validate evaluation metrics for software tools designed to support the processes associated with the definition, management, and implementation of these models. The proposed framework builds on previous research that focused on obtaining agreement on the essential requirements in this area. A set of 50 conformance criteria were defined based on the 20 functional requirements agreed by that consensus and applied to evaluate the currently available tools. Of the 11 initiative developing tools for clinical information modeling identified, 9 were evaluated according to their performance on the evaluation metrics. Results show that functionalities related to management of data types, specifications, metadata, and terminology or ontology bindings have a good level of adoption. Improvements can be made in other areas focused on information modeling and associated processes. Other criteria related to displaying semantic relationships between concepts and communication with terminology servers had low levels of adoption. The proposed evaluation metrics were successfully tested and validated against a representative sample of existing tools. The results identify the need to improve tool support for information modeling and software development processes, especially in those areas related to governance, clinician involvement, and optimizing the technical validation of testing processes. This research confirmed the potential of these evaluation metrics to support decision makers in identifying the most appropriate tool for their organization. Los Modelos de Información Clínica son especificaciones para representar la estructura y características semánticas del contenido clínico en los sistemas de Historia Clínica Electrónica. Esta investigación define, prueba y valida

  13. Indirect global warming effects of ozone and stratospheric water vapor induced by surface methane emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Grossman, A.S.; Tamaresis, J.S.; Patten, K.O. Jr.; Jain, A.; Grant, K.A.

    1994-07-01

    Methane has indirect effects on climate due to chemical interactions as well as direct radiative forcing effects as a greenhouse gas. We have calculated the indirect, time-varying tropospheric radiative forcing and GWP of O 3 and stratospheric H 2 O due to an impulse of CH 4 . This impulse, applied to the lowest layer of the atmosphere, is the increase of the atmospheric mass of CH 4 resulting from a 25 percent steady state increase in the current emissions as a function of latitude. The direct CH 4 radiative forcing and GWP are also calculated. The LLNL 2-D radiative-chemistry-transport model is used to evaluate the resulting changes in the O 3 , H 2 O and CH 4 atmospheric profiles as a function of time. A correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model is used to calculate the radiative forcing at the tropopause of the globally-averaged atmosphere profiles. The O 3 indirect GWPs vary from ∼27 after a 20 yr integration to ∼4 after 500 years, agreeing with the previous estimates to within about 10 percent. The H 2 O indirect GWPs vary from ∼2 after a 20 yr integration to ∼0.3 after 500 years, and are in close agreement with other estimates. The CH 4 GWPs vary from ∼53 at 20 yrs to ∼7 at 500 yrs. The 20 year CH 4 GWP is ∼20% larger than previous estimates of the direct CH 4 GWP due to a CH 4 response time (∼17 yrs) that is much longer than the overall lifetime (10 yrs). The increased CH 4 response time results from changes in the OH abundances caused by the CH 4 impulse. The CH 4 radiative forcing results are consistent with IPCC values. Estimates are made of latitude effects in the radiative forcing calculations, and UV effects on the O 3 radiative forcing calculations (10%)

  14. Estimated SAGE II ozone mixing ratios in early 1993 and comparisons with Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamic Expedition measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, G. K.; Veiga, R. E.; Poole, L. R.; Zawodny, J. M.; Proffitt, M. H.

    1994-01-01

    An empirical time-series model for estimating ozone mixing ratios based on Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) monthly mean ozone data for the period October 1984 through June 1991 has been developed. The modeling results for ozone mixing ratios in the 10- to 30- km region in early months of 1993 are presented. In situ ozone profiles obtained by a dual-beam UV-absorption ozone photometer during the Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Exp