WorldWideScience

Sample records for stratospheric dynamic variability

  1. Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Steenrod, S. D.

    2016-01-01

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.

  2. Variability of Irreversible Poleward Transport in the Lower Stratosphere

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    Olsen, Mark; Douglass, Anne; Newman, Paul; Nash, Eric; Witte, Jacquelyn; Ziemke, Jerry

    2011-01-01

    The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.

  3. Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone

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    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, I. S.

    2011-01-01

    A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

  4. Interannual variability of the stratospheric wave driving during northern winter

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    H. M. Kelder

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available The strength of the stratospheric wave driving during northern winter is often quantified by the January–February mean poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, averaged over 40°–80° N (or a similar area and period. Despite the dynamical and chemical relevance of the wave driving, the causes for its variability are still not well understood. In this study, ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1979–2002 are used to examine several factors that significantly affect the interannual variability of the wave driving. The total poleward heat flux at 100 hPa is poorly correlated with that in the troposphere, suggesting a decoupling between 100 hPa and the troposphere. However, the individual zonal wave-1 and wave-2 contributions to the wave driving at 100 hPa do exhibit a significant coupling with the troposphere, predominantly their stationary components. The stationary wave-1 contribution to the total wave driving significantly depends on the latitude of the stationary wave-1 source in the troposphere. The results suggest that this dependence is associated with the varying ability of stationary wave-1 activity to enter the tropospheric waveguide at mid-latitudes. The wave driving anomalies are separated into three parts: one part due to anomalies in the zonal correlation coefficient between the eddy temperature and eddy meridional wind, another part due to anomalies in the zonal eddy temperature amplitude, and a third part due to anomalies in the zonal eddy meridional wind amplitude. It is found that year-to-year variability in the zonal correlation coefficient between the eddy temperature and the eddy meridional wind is the most dominant factor in explaining the year-to-year variability of the poleward eddy heat flux.

  5. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

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    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  6. Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

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    Chunxiao Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS. The semi-annual oscillation (SAO in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be well captured by the model. The model simulations reveal that the CO surface emissions explain most of the SAO signals in the tropical UT, with the remainder being attributed to dynamical and chemical processes. The CO AO in the LS primarily results from combined effects of dynamical and chemical processes while the dynamical and chemical processes make opposite contributions to the CO AO signals, consistent with the previous findings. Our analysis further reveals that CO surface emissions tend to weaken the amplitude of the CO annual cycle in the tropical LS, while the annual variations in the meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson (BD circulation can amplify the annual variations of CO above 30 hPa. The model simulations also indicate that the CO annual cycle in the LS has a mixed behaviour with the annual variations of tropical upwelling reflected in CO between ~70 and ~50 hPa and a standard tape-recorder signal above 50 hPa. Moreover, the AO signals of CO exist up to 10 hPa when the chemical processes are switched off. The temporal and spatial variations of CO in the UT and near the tropopause are mainly driven by the upward transport of CO by tropical deep convection and the Asian summer monsoon circulation. In the early stage of the South Asian summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the South China in the late spring and early summer, the transport of the CO surface emissions over Southeast Asia by the South Asian summer monsoon leads to an increase in the tropical CO, but the horizontal transport from the extratropics into the tropics (termed in

  7. Variability of the stratospheric ozone in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aristizabal, Gloria Leon

    2002-01-01

    In this study has been examined the causes of ozone variations and the sign that represent in the short-term, seasonal, interannual, decadal and long-term variability. The analysis of NASA satellite data sets, obtained with the total ozone mapping spectrometer toms, for the period 1979-1999, they permit to deduce to the total column ozone that in Colombia, varies among 255 and 267 U.D., and presents synchronous variations with the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) and in the series not any tendency with the time is recognized

  8. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

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    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  9. Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

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    Anet, J. G.; Muthers, S.; Rozanov, E.; Raible, C. C.; Peter, T.; Stenke, A.; Shapiro, A. I.; Beer, J.; Steinhilber, F.; Brönnimann, S.; Arfeuille, F.; Brugnara, Y.; Schmutz, W.

    2013-11-01

    The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation

  10. A vortex dynamics perspective on stratospheric sudden warmings

    OpenAIRE

    Matthewman, N. J.

    2009-01-01

    A vortex dynamics approach is used to study the underlying mechanisms leading to polar vortex breakdown during stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). Observational data are used in chapter 2 to construct climatologies of the Arctic polar vortex structure during vortex-splitting and vortex-displacement SSWs occurring between 1958 and 2002. During vortex-splitting SSWs, polar vortex breakdown is shown to be typically independent of height (barotropic), whereas breakdown during vor...

  11. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

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    van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generate their own meteorology, and thus cannot be used for comparisons with instantaneous measurements. This thesis presents the first application of a simple data assimilation method, Newtonian relaxation, to reproduce realistic synoptical conditions in a state-of-the-art middle atmosphere general circulation model, MA-ECHAM. By nudging the model's meteorology slightly towards analyzed observations from a weather forecasting system (ECMWF), we have simulated specific atmospheric processes during particular meteorological episodes, such as the 1999/2000 Arctic winter. The nudging technique is intended to interfere as little as possible with the model's own dynamics. In fact, we found that we could even limit the nudging to the troposphere, leaving the middle atmosphere entirely free. In that setup, the model realistically reproduced many aspects of the instantaneous meteorology of the middle atmosphere, such as the unusually early major warming and breakup of the 2002 Antarctic vortex. However, we found that this required careful interpolation of the nudging data, and a correct choice of nudging parameters. We obtained the best results when we first projected the nudging data onto the model's normal modes so that we could filter out the (spurious) fast components. In a four-year simulation, for which we also introduced an additional nudging of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, we found that the model reproduced much of the interannual variability throughout the

  12. Stratospheric impact on tropospheric ozone variability and trends: 1990–2009

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    P. G. Hess

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of stratospheric ozone on the interannual variability and trends in tropospheric ozone is evaluated between 30 and 90° N from 1990–2009 using ozone measurements and a global chemical transport model, the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem. Long-term measurements from ozonesondes, at 150 and 500 hPa, and the Measurements of OZone and water vapour by in-service Airbus aircraft programme (MOZAIC, at 500 hPa, are analyzed over Japan, Canada, the Eastern US and Northern and Central Europe. The measurements generally emphasize northern latitudes, although the simulation suggests that measurements over the Canadian, Northern and Central European regions are representative of the large-scale interannual ozone variability from 30 to 90° N at 500 hPa. CAM-chem is run with input meteorology from the National Center for Environmental Prediction; a tagging methodology is used to identify the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone concentrations. A variant of the synthetic ozone tracer (synoz is used to represent stratospheric ozone. Both the model and measurements indicate that on large spatial scales stratospheric interannual ozone variability drives significant tropospheric variability at 500 hPa and the surface. In particular, the simulation and the measurements suggest large stratospheric influence at the surface sites of Mace Head (Ireland and Jungfraujoch (Switzerland as well as many 500 hPa measurement locations. Both the measurements and simulation suggest the stratosphere has contributed to tropospheric ozone trends. In many locations between 30–90° N 500 hPa ozone significantly increased from 1990–2000, but has leveled off since (from 2000–2009. The simulated global ozone budget suggests global stratosphere-troposphere exchange increased in 1998–1999 in association with a global ozone anomaly. Discrepancies between the simulated and measured ozone budget include a large underestimation of

  13. Potential of an ensemble Kalman smoother for stratospheric chemical-dynamical data assimilation

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    Thomas Milewski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new stratospheric ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS system is introduced, and the potential of assimilating posterior stratospheric observations to better constrain the whole model state at analysis time is investigated. A set of idealised perfect-model Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE assimilating synthetic limb-sounding temperature or ozone retrievals are performed with a chemistry–climate model. The impact during the analysis step is characterised in terms of the root mean square error reduction between the forecast state and the analysis state. The performances of (1 a fixed-lag EnKS assimilating observations spread over 48 hours and (2 an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF assimilating a denser network of observations are compared with a reference EnKF. The ozone assimilation with EnKS shows a significant additional reduction of analysis error of the order of 10% for dynamical and chemical variables in the extratropical upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS and Polar Vortex regions when compared to the reference EnKF. This reduction has similar magnitude to the one achieved by the denser-network EnKF assimilation. Similarly, the temperature assimilation with EnKS significantly decreases the error in the UTLS for the wind variables like the denser-network EnKF assimilation. However, the temperature assimilation with EnKS has little or no significant impact on the temperature and ozone analyses, whereas the denser-network EnKF shows improvement with respect to the reference EnKF. The different analysis impacts from the assimilation of current and posterior ozone observations indicate the capacity of time-lagged background-error covariances to represent temporal interactions up to 48 hours between variables during the ensemble data assimilation analysis step, and the possibility to use posterior observations whenever additional current observations are unavailable. The possible application of the EnKS for reanalyses is

  14. Evidence for Dynamical Coupling of Stratosphere-MLT during recent minor Stratospheric Warmings in Southern Hemisphere

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    Kim, Yongha; Sunkara, Eswaraiah; Hong, Junseok; Ratnam, Venkat; Chandran, Amal; Rao, Svb; Riggin, Dennis

    2015-04-01

    The mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) response to extremely rare minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events was observed for the first time in the southern hemisphere (SH) during 2010 and is investigated using the meteor radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica. Three episodic SSWs were noticed from early August to late October 2010. The mesospheric wind field was found to significantly differ from normal years due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSWs and secondary PWs in the MLT afterwards. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the SSW occurrence in the stratosphere as has been observed 2002 major SSW, suggesting the downward propagation of disturbance during minor SSWs as well. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with SSWs are found in the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. SD-WACCM simulations are able to produce these observed features.

  15. Variability of tracer transport in spring/summer Arctic stratosphere simulated by CESM-WACCM

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    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Hansen, Felicitas; Huret, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    Recent observational and modeling transport studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air can be transported to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC), embedded in the summer easterlies for several months. A climatology of these sporadic events has shown that their frequency of occurrence considerably increased over the last decade: among the nine cases detected over the period 1960-2011, five occurred between 2002 and 2011.Although a stratospheric favorable preconditioning for their occurrence were identified, the causes of such an increase are not yet understood. In this study, a chemistry climate model is used for the first time to investigate FrIACs characteristics and variability. Simulations were performed with the NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), a coupled model system including an interactive ocean (POP2), land (CLM4), sea ice (CICE), and atmosphere (NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)). To detect low-latitude air masses characterizing FrIACs, daily 3-D output of temperature, horizontal wind and pressure are used to calculate the potential vorticity equivalent latitude (PVEL) distribution onto various isentropic levels in the range 700 K - 1200 K. Additionally, anticyclones are identified by using an algorithm designed to detect systematically vortex edges. To classify an event as a FrIAC, we require that the intrusion contains air masses from low-latitudes (below PVEL=40°N), reaches the polar region (beyond 60°N), and is collocated with an anticyclonic eddy. Among the 145 years analyzed (1955-2099), from a simulation with natural forcing conditions only, 20 FrIACs are found. They occur predominantly under a strong and abrupt winter-to-summer dynamical transitions which are driven by large planetary wave activity. FrIACs characteristics (i.e. spatial extent and duration), are overall consistent by comparing with FrIACs detected in ERA

  16. Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents-Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model

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    Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Yutian; Smith, Karen L.

    2018-01-01

    To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1-2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic.

  17. Study nonlinear dynamics of stratospheric ozone concentration at Pakistan Terrestrial region

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    Jan, Bulbul; Zai, Muhammad Ayub Khan Yousuf; Afradi, Faisal Khan; Aziz, Zohaib

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the stratospheric ozone layer at Pakistan atmospheric region. Ozone considered now the most important issue in the world because of its diverse effects on earth biosphere, including human health, ecosystem, marine life, agriculture yield and climate change. Therefore, this paper deals with total monthly time series data of stratospheric ozone over the Pakistan atmospheric region from 1970 to 2013. Two approaches, basic statistical analysis and Fractal dimension (D) have adapted to study the nature of nonlinear dynamics of stratospheric ozone level. Results obtained from this research have shown that the Hurst exponent values of both methods of fractal dimension revealed an anti-persistent behavior (negatively correlated), i.e. decreasing trend for all lags and Rescaled range analysis is more appropriate as compared to Detrended fluctuation analysis. For seasonal time series all month follows an anti-persistent behavior except in the month of November which shown persistence behavior i.e. time series is an independent and increasing trend. The normality test statistics also confirmed the nonlinear behavior of ozone and the rejection of hypothesis indicates the strong evidence of the complexity of data. This study will be useful to the researchers working in the same field in the future to verify the complex nature of stratospheric ozone.

  18. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    OpenAIRE

    Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generat...

  19. Assessing the long-term variability of acetylene and ethane in the stratosphere of Jupiter

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    Melin, Henrik; Fletcher, L. N.; Donnelly, P. T.; Greathouse, T. K.; Lacy, J. H.; Orton, G. S.; Giles, R. S.; Sinclair, J. A.; Irwin, P. G. J.

    2018-05-01

    Acetylene (C2H2) and ethane (C2H6) are both produced in the stratosphere of Jupiter via photolysis of methane (CH4). Despite this common source, the latitudinal distribution of the two species is radically different, with acetylene decreasing in abundance towards the pole, and ethane increasing towards the pole. We present six years of NASA IRTF TEXES mid-infrared observations of the zonally-averaged emission of methane, acetylene and ethane. We confirm that the latitudinal distributions of ethane and acetylene are decoupled, and that this is a persistent feature over multiple years. The acetylene distribution falls off towards the pole, peaking at ∼ 30°N with a volume mixing ratio (VMR) of ∼ 0.8 parts per million (ppm) at 1 mbar and still falling off at ± 70° with a VMR of ∼ 0.3 ppm. The acetylene distributions are asymmetric on average, but as we move from 2013 to 2017, the zonally-averaged abundance becomes more symmetric about the equator. We suggest that both the short term changes in acetylene and its latitudinal asymmetry is driven by changes to the vertical stratospheric mixing, potentially related to propagating wave phenomena. Unlike acetylene, ethane has a symmetric distribution about the equator that increases toward the pole, with a peak mole fraction of ∼ 18 ppm at about ± 50° latitude, with a minimum at the equator of ∼ 10 ppm at 1 mbar. The ethane distribution does not appear to respond to mid-latitude stratospheric mixing in the same way as acetylene, potentially as a result of the vertical gradient of ethane being much shallower than that of acetylene. The equator-to-pole distributions of acetylene and ethane are consistent with acetylene having a shorter lifetime than ethane that is not sensitive to longer advective timescales, but is augmented by short-term dynamics, such as vertical mixing. Conversely, the long lifetime of ethane allows it to be transported to higher latitudes faster than it can be chemically depleted.

  20. Variabilities of mesospheric tides and equatorial electrojet strength during major stratospheric warming events

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    S. Sridharan

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study demonstrates the relationship between the high latitude northern hemispheric major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW events and the reversal in the afternoon equatorial electrojet (EEJ, often called the counter-electrojet (CEJ, during the winter months of 1998–1999, 2001–2002, 2003–2004 and 2005–2006. As the EEJ current system is driven by tidal winds, an investigation of tidal variabilities in the MF radar observed zonal winds during the winters of 1998–1999 and 2005–2006 at 88 km over Tirunelveli, a site close to the magnetic equator, shows that there is an enhancement of semi-diurnal tidal amplitude during the days of a major SSW event and a suppression of the same immediately after the event. The significance of the present results lies in demonstrating the latitudinal coupling between the high latitude SSW phenomenon and the equatorial ionospheric current system with clear evidence for major SSW events influencing the day-to-day variability of the CEJ.

  1. Trends and variability of midlatitude stratospheric water vapour deduced from the re-evaluated Boulder balloon series and HALOE

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    M. Scherer

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE. Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980–2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (≈14 to 25 km, the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3±0.3 and 0.7±0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between −0.2±0.3 and 1.0±0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from −1.1±0.2 to −0.1±0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here.

  2. Treatment of dynamical processes in two-dimensional models of the troposphere and stratosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuebbles, D.J.

    1980-07-01

    The physical structure of the troposphere and stratosphere is the result of an intricate interplay among a large number of radiative, chemical, and dynamical processes. Because it is not possible to model the global environment in the laboratory, theoretical models must be relied on, subject to observational verification, to simulate atmospheric processes. Of particular concern in recent years has been the modeling of those processes affecting the structure of ozone and other trace species in the stratosphere and troposphere. Zonally averaged two-dimensional models with spatial resolution in the vertical and meridional directions can provide a much more realistic representation of tracer transport than one-dimensional models, yet are capable of the detailed representation of chemical and radiative processes contained in the one-dimensional models. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze existing approaches to representing global atmospheric transport processes in two-dimensional models and to discuss possible alternatives to these approaches. A general description of the processes controlling the transport of trace constituents in the troposphere and stratosphere is given

  3. Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

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    M. Kozubek

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the long-term trends of different atmospheric parameters have been already studied separately in many papers, this study is focused on the stratospheric wind (zonal and meridional components and temperature over the whole globe at 10 hPa during 1979–2015. We present the trends for the whole winter (October–March, for each individual month of winter and separately for the period before and after the ozone trend turnaround during the mid-1990s. The change of ozone trends has a clear impact on trends in other investigated stratospheric parameters. Four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE are used for comparison. Every grid point is analysed, not zonal averages. The comparison of trends in meridional wind, which is closely connected with Brewer–Dobson circulation, shows a good agreement for all four reanalyses (main features and amplitudes of the trends in terms of winter averages, but there are some differences in individual months, particularly in trend amplitude. These results could be important for studying dynamics (transport in the whole stratosphere.

  4. Stratospheric and solar cycle effects on long-term variability of mesospheric ice clouds

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    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.; Baumgarten, G.

    2009-11-01

    Model results of mesospheric ice layers and background conditions at 69°N from 1961 to 2008 are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. At polar mesospheric cloud (PMC) altitudes (83 km) temperatures decrease until the mid 1990s by -0.08 K/yr resulting in trends of PMC brightness, occurrence rates, and, to a lesser extent, in PMC altitudes (-0.0166 km/yr). Ice layer trends are consistent with observations by ground-based and satellite instruments. Water vapor increases at PMC heights and decreases above due to increased freeze-drying caused by the temperature trend. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. A solar cycle modulation of H2O is observed in the model consistent with satellite observations. The effect on ice layers is reduced because of redistribution of H2O by freeze-drying. The accidental coincidence of low temperatures and solar cycle minimum in the mid 1990s leads to an overestimation of solar effects on ice layers. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (˜0.01-0.02 K/yr). Strong correlations between PMC parameters and background conditions deduced from the model confirm the standard scenario of PMC formation. The PMC sensitivity on temperatures, water vapor, and Ly-α is investigated. PMC heights show little variation with background parameters whereas brightness and occurrence rates show large variations. None of the background parameters can be ignored regarding its influence on ice layers.

  5. Sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Randel, William J.; Kim, Joowan

    2017-04-01

    We investigate sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using daily gridded fields of GPS radio occultation measurements. The unprecedented vertical resolution (from about 100 m in the troposphere to about 1.5 km in the stratosphere) and high accuracy and precision (0.7 K to 1 K between 8 km and 25 km) make these data ideal for characterizing temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths. Long-term behavior of sub-seasonal temperature variability is investigated using the entire RO record from January 2002 to December 2014 (13 years of data). Transient sub-seasonal waves including eastward-propagating Kelvin waves (isolated with space-time spectral analysis) dominate large-scale zonal temperature variability in the tropical tropopause region and in the lower stratosphere. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Enhanced wave activity can be found during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, sub-seasonal waves are highly transient in time. Several peaks of Kelvin-wave activity coincide with short-term fluctuations in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Also, there are no obvious relationships with zonal winds or stability fields near the tropical tropopause. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions along the waves' trajectories are needed to better understand sub-seasonal temperature variability near the tropopause. For more details, see Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.: Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793-806, doi:10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/793/2017/acp-17-793-2017.html

  6. Analyses of the stratospheric dynamics simulated by a GCM with a stochastic nonorographic gravity wave parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Riccio, Angelo

    2016-04-01

    The effects of the propagation and breaking of atmospheric gravity waves have long been considered crucial for their impact on the circulation, especially in the stratosphere and mesosphere, between heights of 10 and 110 km. These waves, that in the Earth's atmosphere originate from surface orography (OGWs) or from transient (nonorographic) phenomena such as fronts and convective processes (NOGWs), have horizontal wavelengths between 10 and 1000 km, vertical wavelengths of several km, and frequencies spanning from minutes to hours. Orographic and nonorographic GWs must be accounted for in climate models to obtain a realistic simulation of the stratosphere in both hemispheres, since they can have a substantial impact on circulation and temperature, hence an important role in ozone chemistry for chemistry-climate models. Several types of parameterization are currently employed in models, differing in the formulation and for the values assigned to parameters, but the common aim is to quantify the effect of wave breaking on large-scale wind and temperature patterns. In the last decade, both global observations from satellite-borne instruments and the outputs of very high resolution climate models provided insight on the variability and properties of gravity wave field, and these results can be used to constrain some of the empirical parameters present in most parameterization scheme. A feature of the NOGW forcing that clearly emerges is the intermittency, linked with the nature of the sources: this property is absent in the majority of the models, in which NOGW parameterizations are uncoupled with other atmospheric phenomena, leading to results which display lower variability compared to observations. In this work, we analyze the climate simulated in AMIP runs of the MAECHAM5 model, which uses the Hines NOGW parameterization and with a fine vertical resolution suitable to capture the effects of wave-mean flow interaction. We compare the results obtained with two

  7. Dynamics of Variable Mass Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eke, Fidelis O.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents the results of an investigation of the effects of mass loss on the attitude behavior of spinning bodies in flight. The principal goal is to determine whether there are circumstances under which the motion of variable mass systems can become unstable in the sense that their transverse angular velocities become unbounded. Obviously, results from a study of this kind would find immediate application in the aerospace field. The first part of this study features a complete and mathematically rigorous derivation of a set of equations that govern both the translational and rotational motions of general variable mass systems. The remainder of the study is then devoted to the application of the equations obtained to a systematic investigation of the effect of various mass loss scenarios on the dynamics of increasingly complex models of variable mass systems. It is found that mass loss can have a major impact on the dynamics of mechanical systems, including a possible change in the systems stability picture. Factors such as nozzle geometry, combustion chamber geometry, propellant's initial shape, size and relative mass, and propellant location can all have important influences on the system's dynamic behavior. The relative importance of these parameters on-system motion are quantified in a way that is useful for design purposes.

  8. Response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Gao, Yannan; Cai, Juan; Guo, Dong; Lu, Yan

    2018-04-01

    The response of the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the stratosphere to the solar cycle in the boreal winter is investigated based on measurements of the solar cycle by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor onboard the SORCE satellite, monthly ERA-Interim Reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the radiative transfer scheme of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-RAD) and a multiple linear regression model. The results show that during periods of strong solar activity, the solar shortwave heating anomaly from the climatology in the tropical upper stratosphere triggers a local warm anomaly and strong westerly winds in mid-latitudes, which strengthens the upward propagation of planetary wave 1 but prevents that of wave 2. The enhanced westerly jet makes a slight adjustment to the propagation path of wave 1, but prevents wave 2 from propagating upward, decreases the dissipation of wave 2 in the extratropical upper stratosphere and hence weakens the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The adiabatic heating term in relation to the Brewer-Dobson circulation shows anomalous warming in the tropical lower stratosphere and anomalous cooling in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere.

  9. A Lagrangian analysis of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone variability and long-term trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, G.; Wernli, H.; Staehelin, J.; Peter, T.

    2002-05-01

    A systematic Lagrangian investigation is performed of wintertime high-resolution stratospheric ozone soundings at Payerne, Switzerland, from January 1970 to March 2001. For every ozone sounding, 10-day backward trajectories have been calculated on 16 isentropic levels using NCEP reanalysis data. Both the minimum/maximum latitude and potential vorticity (PV) averaged along the trajectories are used as indicators of the air parcels' ``origin''. The importance of transport for the understandin g of single ozone profiles is confirmed by a statistical analysis which shows that negative/positive ozone deviations gener ally coincide with transport from regions with climatologically low/high ozone values. The stable relationship between PV and ozone for the 32 year period indicates either no direct chemical impact or no temporal change of this impact. In the upper layer the PV-ozone relationship changes significantly after 1987 and a separate trend analysis for air masses transported from the polar, midlatitude and subtropical regions shows negative ozone trends in all three categories (with a maximum for the polar region). This is not direct evidence for, but would be in agreement with, an increased chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic since the late 1980s. The reasons for the negative trend in the mid-stratospheric air masses with subtropical origin that are in qualitative agreement with recent satellite observations are presently unknown.

  10. Impacts of Stratospheric Dynamics on Atmospheric Behavior from the Ground to Space Solar Minimum and Solar Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-15

    propagating , planetary-scale waves (wavenumber 1 and wavenumber 2) in the lower thermosphere that are associated with different stratospheric conditions. To...prominent meridional propagation of wave activity from the mid- latitudes toward the tropics. In combination with strong eastward meridional wind shear, our...Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere, Whole Atmosphere Model, and WACCM-X. The comparison focuses on the zonal mean, planetary wave , and tidal variability in

  11. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with

  12. MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, C I; Schwartz, C

    2017-10-16

    The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

  13. Estimated SAGE II ozone mixing ratios in early 1993 and comparisons with Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamic Expedition measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, G. K.; Veiga, R. E.; Poole, L. R.; Zawodny, J. M.; Proffitt, M. H.

    1994-01-01

    An empirical time-series model for estimating ozone mixing ratios based on Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) monthly mean ozone data for the period October 1984 through June 1991 has been developed. The modeling results for ozone mixing ratios in the 10- to 30- km region in early months of 1993 are presented. In situ ozone profiles obtained by a dual-beam UV-absorption ozone photometer during the Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE) campaign, May 1-14, 1993, are compared with the model results. With the exception of two profiles at altitudes below 16 km, ozone mixing ratios derived by the model and measured by the ozone photometer are in relatively good agreement within their individual uncertainties. The identified discrepancies in the two profiles are discussed.

  14. Ozone variability in the troposphere and the stratosphere from the first 6 years of IASI observations (2008–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wespes

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we assess how daily ozone (O3 measurements from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI on the MetOp-A platform can contribute to the analyses of the processes driving O3 variability in the troposphere and the stratosphere and, in the future, to the monitoring of long-term trends. The temporal evolution of O3 during the first 6 years of IASI (2008–2013 operation is investigated with multivariate regressions separately in four different layers (ground–300, 300–150, 150–25, 25–3 hPa, by adjusting to the daily time series averaged in 20° zonal bands, seasonal and linear trend terms along with important geophysical drivers of O3 variation (e.g. solar flux, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO. The regression model is shown to perform generally very well with a strong dominance of the annual harmonic terms and significant contributions from O3 drivers, in particular in the equatorial region where the QBO and the solar flux contribution dominate. More particularly, despite the short period of the IASI data set available up to now, two noticeable statistically significant apparent trends are inferred from the daily IASI measurements: a positive trend in the upper stratosphere (e.g. 1.74 ± 0.77 DU year−1 between 30 and 50° S, which is consistent with other studies suggesting a turnaround for stratospheric O3 recovery, and a negative trend in the troposphere at the mid-latitudes and high northern latitudes (e.g. −0.26 ± 0.11 DU year−1 between 30 and 50° N, especially during summer and probably linked to the impact of decreasing ozone precursor emissions. The impact of the high temporal sampling of IASI on the uncertainty in the determination of O3 trend has been further explored by performing multivariate regressions on IASI monthly averages and on ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR measurements.

  15. Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

    2008-04-01

    Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

  16. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

  17. Chlorine in the stratosphere

    OpenAIRE

    VON CLARMANN, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the various aspects of chlorine compounds in the stratosphere, both their roles as reactants and as tracers of dynamical processes. In the stratosphere, reactive chlorine is released from chlorofluorocarbons and other chlorine-containing organic source gases. To a large extent reactive chlorine is then sequestered in reservoir species ClONO2 and HCl. Re-activation of chlorine happens predominantly in polar winter vortices by heterogeneous reaction in combination with sunlig...

  18. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  19. Can time be a discrete dynamical variable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    The possibility that time can be regarded as a discrete dynamical variable is examined through all phases of mechanics: from classical mechanics to nonrelativistic quantum mechanics, and to relativistic quantum field theories. (orig.)

  20. Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes.

    In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days.

    Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates

  1. Vertical and interhemispheric links in the stratosphere-mesosphere as revealed by the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS temperature data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Xu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes. In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days. Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates that the temporal

  2. Radiative-dynamical and microphysical processes of thin cirrus clouds controlling humidity of air entering the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, Tra; Fueglistaler, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    Thin cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are of great interest due to their role in the control of water vapor and temperature in the TTL. Previous research on TTL cirrus clouds has focussed mainly on microphysical processes, specifically the ice nucleation mechanism and dehydration efficiency. Here, we use a cloud resolving model to analyse the sensitivity of TTL cirrus characteristics and impacts with respect to microphysical and radiative processes. A steady-state TTL cirrus cloud field is obtained in the model forced with dynamical conditions typical for the TTL (2-dimensional setup with a Kelvin-wave temperature perturbation). Our model results show that the dehydration efficiency (as given by the domain average relative humidity in the layer of cloud occurrence) is relatively insensitive to the ice nucleation mechanism, i.e. homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation. Rather, TTL cirrus affect the water vapor entering the stratosphere via an indirect effect associated with the cloud radiative heating and dynamics. Resolving the cloud radiative heating and the radiatively induced circulations approximately doubles the domain average ice mass. The cloud radiative heating is proportional to the domain average ice mass, and the observed increase in domain average ice mass induces a domain average temperature increase of a few Kelvin. The corresponding increase in water vapor entering the stratosphere is estimated to be about 30 to 40%.

  3. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  4. Phase space dynamics and collective variable fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Idier, D.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.; Schuck, P.

    1995-01-01

    A dynamical study of collective variable fluctuations in heavy ion reactions is performed within the framework of the Boltzmann-Langevin theory. A general method to extract dispersions on collective variables from numerical simulations based on test particles models is presented and its validity is checked by comparison with analytical equilibrium results. (authors)

  5. Phase space dynamics and collective variable fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Idier, D.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F. [Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire de Nantes, 44 (France); Schuck, P. [Institut des Sciences Nucleaires, 38 - Grenoble (France)

    1995-12-31

    A dynamical study of collective variable fluctuations in heavy ion reactions is performed within the framework of the Boltzmann-Langevin theory. A general method to extract dispersions on collective variables from numerical simulations based on test particles models is presented and its validity is checked by comparison with analytical equilibrium results. (authors) 10 refs.

  6. Dynamics of mechanical systems with variable mass

    CERN Document Server

    Belyaev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    The book presents up-to-date and unifying formulations for treating dynamics of different types of mechanical systems with variable mass. The starting point is overview of the continuum mechanics relations of balance and jump for open systems from which extended Lagrange and Hamiltonian formulations are derived. Corresponding approaches are stated at the level of analytical mechanics with emphasis on systems with a position-dependent mass and at the level of structural mechanics. Special emphasis is laid upon axially moving structures like belts and chains, and on pipes with an axial flow of fluid. Constitutive relations in the dynamics of systems with variable mass are studied with particular reference to modeling of multi-component mixtures. The dynamics of machines with a variable mass are treated in detail and conservation laws and the stability of motion will be analyzed. Novel finite element formulations for open systems in coupled fluid and structural dynamics are presented.

  7. The spring 2011 final stratospheric warming above Eureka: anomalous dynamics and chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Adams

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In spring 2011, the Arctic polar vortex was stronger than in any other year on record. As the polar vortex started to break up in April, ozone and NO2 columns were measured with UV-visible spectrometers above the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL in Eureka, Canada (80.05° N, 86.42° W using the differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS technique. These ground-based column measurements were complemented by Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Optical Spectrograph and Infra-Red Imager System (OSIRIS satellite measurements, Global Modeling Initiative (GMI simulations, and meteorological quantities. On 8 April 2011, NO2 columns above PEARL from the DOAS, OMI, and GMI datasets were approximately twice as large as in previous years. On this day, temperatures and ozone volume mixing ratios above Eureka were high, suggesting enhanced chemical production of NO2 from NO. Additionally, GMI NOx (NO + NO2 and N2O fields suggest that downward transport along the vortex edge and horizontal transport from lower latitudes also contributed to the enhanced NO2. The anticyclone that transported lower-latitude NOx above PEARL became frozen-in and persisted in dynamical and GMI N2O fields until the end of the measurement period on 31 May 2011. Ozone isolated within this frozen-in anticyclone (FrIAC in the middle stratosphere was lost due to reactions with the enhanced NOx. Below the FrIAC (from the tropopause to 700 K, NOx driven ozone loss above Eureka was larger than in previous years, according to GMI monthly average ozone loss rates. Using the passive tracer technique, with passive ozone profiles from the Lagrangian Chemistry and Transport Model, ATLAS, ozone losses since 1 December 2010 were calculated at 600 K. In the air mass that was above Eureka on 20 May 2011, ozone losses reached 4.2 parts per million by

  8. Stratospheric aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, J.; Ivanov, V.A.

    1993-01-01

    Stratospheric aerosol measurements can provide both spatial and temporal data of sufficient resolution to be of use in climate models. Relatively recent results from a wide range of instrument techniques for measuring stratospheric aerosol parameters are described. Such techniques include impactor sampling, lidar system sensing, filter sampling, photoelectric particle counting, satellite extinction-sensing using the sun as a source, and optical depth probing, at sites mainly removed from tropospheric aerosol sources. Some of these techniques have also had correlative and intercomparison studies. The main methods for determining the vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosols are outlined: lidar extinction measurements from satellites; impactor measurements from balloons and aircraft; and photoelectric particle counter measurements from balloons, aircraft, and rockets. The conversion of the lidar backscatter to stratospheric aerosol mass loading is referred to. Absolute measurements of total solar extinction from satellite orbits can be used to extract the aerosol extinction, and several examples of vertical profiles of extinction obtained with the SAGE satellite are given. Stratospheric mass loading can be inferred from extinction using approximate linear relationships but under restrictive conditions. Impactor sampling is essentially the only method in which the physical nature of the stratospheric aerosol is observed visually. Vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosol number concentration using impactor data are presented. Typical profiles using a dual-size-range photoelectric dustsonde particle counter are given for volcanically disturbed and inactive periods. Some measurements of the global distribution of stratospheric aerosols are also presented. Volatility measurements are described, indicating that stratospheric aerosols are composed primarily of about 75% sulfuric acid and 25% water

  9. Observation of an unusual mid-stratospheric aerosol layer in the Arctic: possible sources and implications for polar vortex dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gerding

    Full Text Available By the beginning of winter 2000/2001, a mysterious stratospheric aerosol layer had been detected by four different Arctic lidar stations. The aerosol layer was observed first on 16 November 2000, at an altitude of about 38 km near Søndre Strømfjord, Greenland (67° N, 51° W and on 19 November 2000, near Andenes, Norway (69°  N, 16°  E. Subsequently, in early December 2000, the aerosol layer was observed near Kiruna, Sweden (68°  N, 21°  E and Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen (79°  N, 12°  E. No mid-latitude lidar station observed the presence of aerosols in this altitude region. The layer persisted throughout the winter 2000/2001, at least up to 12 February 2001. In November 2000, the backscatter ratio at a wavelength of 532 nm was up to 1.1, with a FWHM of about 2.5 km. By early February 2001, the layer had sedimented from an altitude of 38 km to about 26 km. Measurements at several wavelengths by the ALOMAR and Koldewey lidars indicate the particle size was between 30 and 50 nm. Depolarisation measurements reveal that the particles in the layer are aspherical, hence solid. In the mid-stratosphere, the ambient atmospheric temperature was too high to support in situ formation or existence of cloud particles consisting of ice or an acid-water solution. Furthermore, in the year 2000 there was no volcanic eruption, which could have injected aerosols into the upper stratosphere. Therefore, other origins of the aerosol, such as meteoroid debris, condensed rocket fuel, or aerosols produced under the influence of charged solar particles, will be discussed in the paper. Trajectory calculations illustrate the path of the aerosol cloud within the polar vortex and are used to link the observations at the different lidar sites. From the descent rate of  the layer and particle sedimentation rates, the mean down-ward motion of air within the polar vortex was estimated to be about 124 m/d between 35 and 30 km, with higher values at the edge of the

  10. Observation of an unusual mid-stratospheric aerosol layer in the Arctic: possible sources and implications for polar vortex dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gerding

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available By the beginning of winter 2000/2001, a mysterious stratospheric aerosol layer had been detected by four different Arctic lidar stations. The aerosol layer was observed first on 16 November 2000, at an altitude of about 38 km near Søndre Strømfjord, Greenland (67° N, 51° W and on 19 November 2000, near Andenes, Norway (69°  N, 16°  E. Subsequently, in early December 2000, the aerosol layer was observed near Kiruna, Sweden (68°  N, 21°  E and Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen (79°  N, 12°  E. No mid-latitude lidar station observed the presence of aerosols in this altitude region. The layer persisted throughout the winter 2000/2001, at least up to 12 February 2001. In November 2000, the backscatter ratio at a wavelength of 532 nm was up to 1.1, with a FWHM of about 2.5 km. By early February 2001, the layer had sedimented from an altitude of 38 km to about 26 km. Measurements at several wavelengths by the ALOMAR and Koldewey lidars indicate the particle size was between 30 and 50 nm. Depolarisation measurements reveal that the particles in the layer are aspherical, hence solid. In the mid-stratosphere, the ambient atmospheric temperature was too high to support in situ formation or existence of cloud particles consisting of ice or an acid-water solution. Furthermore, in the year 2000 there was no volcanic eruption, which could have injected aerosols into the upper stratosphere. Therefore, other origins of the aerosol, such as meteoroid debris, condensed rocket fuel, or aerosols produced under the influence of charged solar particles, will be discussed in the paper. Trajectory calculations illustrate the path of the aerosol cloud within the polar vortex and are used to link the observations at the different lidar sites. From the descent rate of  the layer and particle sedimentation rates, the mean down-ward motion of air within the polar vortex was estimated to be about 124 m/d between 35 and 30 km, with higher values at the edge of the

  11. Dynamically variable spot size laser system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gradl, Paul R. (Inventor); Hurst, John F. (Inventor); Middleton, James R. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A Dynamically Variable Spot Size (DVSS) laser system for bonding metal components includes an elongated housing containing a light entry aperture coupled to a laser beam transmission cable and a light exit aperture. A plurality of lenses contained within the housing focus a laser beam from the light entry aperture through the light exit aperture. The lenses may be dynamically adjusted to vary the spot size of the laser. A plurality of interoperable safety devices, including a manually depressible interlock switch, an internal proximity sensor, a remotely operated potentiometer, a remotely activated toggle and a power supply interlock, prevent activation of the laser and DVSS laser system if each safety device does not provide a closed circuit. The remotely operated potentiometer also provides continuous variability in laser energy output.

  12. Dynamical invariants for variable quadratic Hamiltonians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suslov, Sergei K

    2010-01-01

    We consider linear and quadratic integrals of motion for general variable quadratic Hamiltonians. Fundamental relations between the eigenvalue problem for linear dynamical invariants and solutions of the corresponding Cauchy initial value problem for the time-dependent Schroedinger equation are emphasized. An eigenfunction expansion of the solution of the initial value problem is also found. A nonlinear superposition principle for generalized Ermakov systems is established as a result of decomposition of the general quadratic invariant in terms of the linear ones.

  13. Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

    2017-04-01

    The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).

  14. Variabilities of Low-Latitude Migrating and Nonmigrating Tides in GPS-TEC and TIMED-SABER Temperature During the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event of 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.

    2017-10-01

    The Global Positioning System deduced total electron content (TEC) data at 15°N (geomagnetic), which is the crest region of equatorial ionization anomaly, are used to study tidal variabilities during the 2013 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. The results from space-time spectral analysis reveal that the amplitudes of migrating diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides are larger than those of nonmigrating tides. After the SSW onset, the amplitudes of DW1, SW2, SW1, and DS0 increase. Moreover, they show 16 day variations similar to the periodicity of the high-latitude stratospheric planetary wave (PW), suggesting that the nonmigrating tides (SW1 and DS0) are possibly generated due to nonlinear interaction of migrating tides with PW. Similar spectral analysis on temperature at 10°N obtained from the Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) shows that the SW2 enhances at stratospheric heights and the SW2 is more dominant at 80-90 km, but its amplitude decreases around 100 km. The amplitudes of nonmigrating tides become comparable to those of SW2 around 100 km, and their contribution becomes increasingly important at higher heights. This suggests that the nonlinear interaction between migrating tides and PW occurs at low-latitude upper mesospheric heights, as SW2 exhibits 16 day periodicity in SABER temperature at 100 km as observed in TEC. Besides, it is observed that the eastward propagating tides are less dominant than westward propagating tides in both TEC and SABER temperatures.

  15. Millimeter wave spectroscopic measurements of stratospheric and mesospheric constituents over the Italian Alps: stratospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Romaniello

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of rotational lines emitted by middle atmospheric trace gases have been carried out from the Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9°N, 7.7°E, elev. 3500 m by means of a Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS. Observations of species such as O3, HNO3, CO, N2O, HCN, and HDO took place during 4 winter periods, from February 2004 to March 2007, for a total of 116 days of measurements grouped in about 18 field campaigns. By studying the pressure-broadened shape of emission lines the vertical distribution of the observed constituents is retrieved within an altitude range of ?17-75 km, constrained by the 600 MHz pass band and the 65 kHz spectral resolution of the back-end spectrometer. This work discusses the behavior of stratospheric O3 during the entire period of operation at Testa Grigia. Mid-latitude O3 columnar content as estimated using GBMS measurements can vary by large amounts over a period of very few days, with the largest variations observed in December 2005, February 2006, and March 2006, confirming that the northern winter of 2005-2006 was characterized by a particularly intense planetary wave activity. The largest rapid variation from maximum to minimum O3 column values over Testa Grigia took place in December 2006 and reached a relative value of 72% with respect to the average column content for that period. During most GBMS observation times much of the variability is concentrated in the column below 20 km, with tropospheric weather systems and advection of tropical tropospheric air into the lower stratosphere over Testa Grigia having a large impact on the observed variations in column contents. Nonetheless, a wide variability is also found in middle stratospheric GBMS O3 measurements, as expected for mid-latitude ozone. We find that O3 mixing ratios at ?32 km are very well correlated with the solar illumination experienced by air masses over the previous ?15 days, showing that already at 32 km

  16. The dynamics of variable-density turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandoval, D.L.

    1995-11-01

    The dynamics of variable-density turbulent fluids are studied by direct numerical simulation. The flow is incompressible so that acoustic waves are decoupled from the problem, and implying that density is not a thermodynamic variable. Changes in density occur due to molecular mixing. The velocity field, is in general, divergent. A pseudo-spectral numerical technique is used to solve the equations of motion. Three-dimensional simulations are performed using a grid size of 128 3 grid points. Two types of problems are studied: (1) the decay of isotropic, variable-density turbulence, and (2) buoyancy-generated turbulence in a fluid with large density fluctuations. In the case of isotropic, variable-density turbulence, the overall statistical decay behavior, for the cases studied, is relatively unaffected by the presence of density variations when the initial density and velocity fields are statistically independent. The results for this case are in quantitative agreement with previous numerical and laboratory results. In this case, the initial density field has a bimodal probability density function (pdf) which evolves in time towards a Gaussian distribution. The pdf of the density field is symmetric about its mean value throughout its evolution. If the initial velocity and density fields are statistically dependent, however, the decay process is significantly affected by the density fluctuations. For the case of buoyancy-generated turbulence, variable-density departures from the Boussinesq approximation are studied. The results of the buoyancy-generated turbulence are compared with variable-density model predictions. Both a one-point (engineering) model and a two-point (spectral) model are tested against the numerical data. Some deficiencies in these variable-density models are discussed and modifications are suggested

  17. Stratospheric H2O

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1979-01-01

    Documentation of the extreme aridity (approx. 3% relative humidity) of the lower stratosphere and the rapid decrease of mixing ratio with height just above the polar tropopause (20-fold in the 1st km) was begun by Dobson et al., (1946) in 1943. They recognized that this extreme and persistent aridity must be dynamically maintained else it would have been wiped out by turbulent diffusion. This led Brewer (1949) to hypothesize a stratospheric circulation in which all air enters through the tropical tropopause where it is freeze dried to a mass mixing ratio of 2 to 3 ppM. This dry air then spreads poleward and descends through the polar tropopauses overpowering upward transport of water vapor by diffusion which would otherwise be permitted by the much warmer temperatures of the polar tropopauses. Questions can indeed be raised as to the absolute magnitudes of stratospheric mixing ratios, the effective temperature of the tropical tropopause cold trap, the reality of winter pole freeze-dry sinks and the representativeness of the available observations suggesting an H 2 O mixing ratio maximum just above the tropical tropopause and a constant mixing ratio from the tropopause to 30 to 35 km. However, no model that better fits all of the available data is available, than does the Brewer (1949) hypothesis coupled with a lower stratosphere winter pole, freeze-dry sink, at least over Antarctica

  18. Chaos, dynamical structure and climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, H.B. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). Dept. of Applied Science

    1995-09-01

    Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. Techniques for identifying deterministic chaos from observed data, without recourse to mathematical models, are being developed. Powerful methods exist for reconstructing multidimensional phase space from an observed time series of a single scalar variable; these methods are invaluable when only a single scalar record of the dynamics is available. However, in some applications multiple concurrent time series may be available for consideration as phase space coordinates. Here the authors propose some basic analytical tools for such multichannel time series data, and illustrate them by applications to a simple synthetic model of chaos, to a low-order model of atmospheric circulation, and to two high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data series. The atmospheric circulation model, originally proposed by Lorenz, has 27 principal unknowns; they establish that the chaotic attractor can be embedded in a subspace of eight dimensions by exhibiting a specific subset of eight unknowns which pass multichannel tests for false nearest neighbors. They also show that one of the principal unknowns in the 27-variable model--the global mean sea surface temperature--is of no discernible usefulness in making short-term forecasts.

  19. Stratospheric ozone climatology and variability over a southern subtropical site: Reunion Island (21° S; 55° E

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Sivakumar

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The study presents the climatological characteristics of stratospheric ozone observed over Reunion Island using in-situ (ozonesonde and SAOZ and satellite (UARS-HALOE, SAGE-II and TOMS measurements. It uses co-localised ozonesondes (from September 1992 to February 2005 and SAOZ measurements (from January 1993 to December 2004, SAGE-II data from October 1984 to February 1999 (~15 years, HALOE data from January 1991 to February 2005 (~15 years, and NIMBUS/TOMS data from January 1978 to December 2004 (27 years. The satellite measurements correspond to overpasses located nearby Reunion Island (21° S; 55° E. The height profiles of ozone concentration obtained from ozonesonde (0.5–29.5 km show less bias in comparison with the HALOE and SAGE-II measurements. Though, the satellite (HALOE and SAGE-II measurements underestimate the tropospheric ozone, they are in good agreement for the heights above 15 km. The bias between the measurements and the normalized ozone profile constructed from the ozonesonde and SAGE-II satellite measurement shows that the SAGE-II measurements are more accurate than the HALOE measurements in the lower stratosphere. The monthly variation of ozone concentration derived from ozonesonde and HALOE shows a nearly annual cycle with a maximum concentration during winter/spring and minimum concentration during summer/autumn months. The time evolution of total column ozone obtained from TOMS, SAOZ and the one computed from ozonesonde and SAGE-II, exhibits similar behaviour with analogous trends as above. The TOMS variation displays a higher value of total column ozone of about 3–5 DU (10% in comparison with the SAOZ and the integrated ozone from ozonesonde and SAGE-II.

  20. Spatial variability of the aspect sensitivity of VHF radar echoes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere during jet stream passages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Yoe

    Full Text Available The aspect sensitivity of SOUSY-VHF-radar oblique-beam echoes from the troposphere and lower stratosphere has been examined for a number of jet stream passages during the years 1990 - 1992. When the core of the jet is overhead or nearly so, vertical profiles of the aspect sensitivity display two notable features. First, the distinction between mainly isotropic and strongly aspect-sensitive echoes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere, respectively, often reported for measurements made during calm conditions, does not necessarily prevail in the vicinity of the jet stream. Second, echoes obtained at altitudes near the height of the horizontal wind maximum are found to be more aspect sensitive for beams directed parallel to the horizontal flow or nearly so, than for other beam directions. It is demonstrated that time-averaged horizontal wind speeds estimated from the radar data, taking into account the reduced effective oblique-beam zenith angle resulting from aspect sensitivity, may exceed uncorrected wind speeds by as much as 10 m s-1 in these circumstances. Implications for wind profiling and for describing the backscattering process are discussed. Doppler spectral widths examined for one jet stream passage are found to be narrower in a beam aligned with the horizontal wind at heights near the wind speed maximum than corresponding widths measured in a beam projected at right angles to the jet. The narrowest spectra thus coincide with the most aspect-sensitive echoes, consistent with the hypothesis that such returns result from specular backscattering processes.

  1. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

    2018-01-01

    We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  2. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  3. Tritium Records to Trace Stratospheric Moisture Inputs in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourré, E.; Landais, A.; Cauquoin, A.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Lipenkov, V.; Petit, J.-R.

    2018-03-01

    Better assessing the dynamic of stratosphere-troposphere exchange is a key point to improve our understanding of the climate dynamic in the East Antarctica Plateau, a region where stratospheric inputs are expected to be important. Although tritium (3H or T), a nuclide naturally produced mainly in the stratosphere and rapidly entering the water cycle as HTO, seems a first-rate tracer to study these processes, tritium data are very sparse in this region. We present the first high-resolution measurements of tritium concentration over the last 50 years in three snow pits drilled at the Vostok station. Natural variability of the tritium records reveals two prominent frequencies, one at about 10 years (to be related to the solar Schwabe cycles) and the other one at a shorter periodicity: despite dating uncertainty at this short scale, a good correlation is observed between 3H and Na+ and an anticorrelation between 3H and δ18O measured on an individual pit. The outputs from the LMDZ Atmospheric General Circulation Model including stable water isotopes and tritium show the same 3H-δ18O anticorrelation and allow further investigation on the associated mechanism. At the interannual scale, the modeled 3H variability matches well with the Southern Annular Mode index. At the seasonal scale, we show that modeled stratospheric tritium inputs in the troposphere are favored in winter cold and dry conditions.

  4. Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kozubek, Michal; Križan, Peter; Laštovička, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 2 (2017), s. 279-294 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-03909S; GA ČR(CZ) GA15-24688S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : climatology * general circulation * middle atmosphere dynamic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.610, year: 2016 http://www.ann-geophys.net/35/279/2017/angeo-35-279-2017.html

  5. Influence of inter-annual variations of stratospheric dynamics in model simulations of ozone losses by aircraft emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadin, E.A. [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    The questions of model predictions of aircraft emission impacts on the ozone variations are considered. Using the NMC data it is shown that the stratospheric circulation underwent the abrupt transition to a new regime in summer 1980. The strong correlations are found between the monthly mean total ozone and stratospheric angular momentum anomalies during 1979-1991. The natural long-term changes of transport processes are necessary to take into account in model simulations of anthropogenic impacts on the ozone layer. (author) 12 refs.

  6. Influence of inter-annual variations of stratospheric dynamics in model simulations of ozone losses by aircraft emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jadin, E A [Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny (Russian Federation)

    1998-12-31

    The questions of model predictions of aircraft emission impacts on the ozone variations are considered. Using the NMC data it is shown that the stratospheric circulation underwent the abrupt transition to a new regime in summer 1980. The strong correlations are found between the monthly mean total ozone and stratospheric angular momentum anomalies during 1979-1991. The natural long-term changes of transport processes are necessary to take into account in model simulations of anthropogenic impacts on the ozone layer. (author) 12 refs.

  7. Dynamical variability in Saturn Equatorial Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Hueso, R.; Rojas, J. F.; French, R. G.; Grupo Ciencias Planetarias Team

    2003-05-01

    Historical ground-based and recent HST observations show that Saturn's Equatorial Atmosphere is the region where the most intense large-scale dynamical variability took place at cloud level in the planet. Large-scale convective storms (nicknamed the ``Great White Spots") occurred in 1876, 1933 and 1990. The best studied case (the 1990 storm), produced a dramatic change in the cloud aspect in the years following the outburst of September 1990. Subsequently, a new large storm formed in 1994 and from 1996 to 2002 our HST observations showed periods of unusual cloud activity in the southern part of the Equator. This contrast with the aspect observed during the Voyager 1 and 2 encounters in 1980 and 1981 when the Equator was calm, except for some mid-scale plume-like features seen in 1981. Cloud-tracking of the features have revealed a dramatic slow down in the equatorial winds from maximum velocities of ˜ 475 m/s in 1980-1981 to ˜ 275 m/s during 1996-2002, as we have recently reported in Nature, Vol. 423, 623 (2003). We discuss the possibility that seasonal and ring-shadowing effects are involved in generating this activity and variability. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Spanish MCYT PNAYA 2000-0932. SPH acknowledges a PhD fellowship from the Spanish MECD and RH a post-doc fellowship from Gobierno Vasco. RGF was supported in part by NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program NAG5-10197 and STSCI Grant GO-08660.01A.

  8. Computation of the Fluid and Optical Fields About the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) and the Coupling of Fluids, Dynamics, and Control Laws on Parallel Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Christopher A.

    1993-01-01

    The June 1992 to May 1993 grant NCC-2-677 provided for the continued demonstration of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) as applied to the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). While earlier grant years allowed validation of CFD through comparison against experiments, this year a new design proposal was evaluated. The new configuration would place the cavity aft of the wing, as opposed to the earlier baseline which was located immediately aft of the cockpit. This aft cavity placement allows for simplified structural and aircraft modification requirements, thus lowering the program cost of this national astronomy resource. Three appendices concerning this subject are presented.

  9. Concurrent variable-interval variable-ratio schedules in a dynamic choice environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Matthew C; Baum, William M

    2017-11-01

    Most studies of operant choice have focused on presenting subjects with a fixed pair of schedules across many experimental sessions. Using these methods, studies of concurrent variable- interval variable-ratio schedules helped to evaluate theories of choice. More recently, a growing literature has focused on dynamic choice behavior. Those dynamic choice studies have analyzed behavior on a number of different time scales using concurrent variable-interval schedules. Following the dynamic choice approach, the present experiment examined performance on concurrent variable-interval variable-ratio schedules in a rapidly changing environment. Our objectives were to compare performance on concurrent variable-interval variable-ratio schedules with extant data on concurrent variable-interval variable-interval schedules using a dynamic choice procedure and to extend earlier work on concurrent variable-interval variable-ratio schedules. We analyzed performances at different time scales, finding strong similarities between concurrent variable-interval variable-interval and concurrent variable-interval variable- ratio performance within dynamic choice procedures. Time-based measures revealed almost identical performance in the two procedures compared with response-based measures, supporting the view that choice is best understood as time allocation. Performance at the smaller time scale of visits accorded with the tendency seen in earlier research toward developing a pattern of strong preference for and long visits to the richer alternative paired with brief "samples" at the leaner alternative ("fix and sample"). © 2017 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  10. Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

    2016-04-07

    In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

  11. Solar wind control of stratospheric temperatures in Jupiter's auroral regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, James Andrew; Orton, Glenn; Kasaba, Yasumasa; Sato, Takao M.; Tao, Chihiro; Waite, J. Hunter; Cravens, Thomas; Houston, Stephen; Fletcher, Leigh; Irwin, Patrick; Greathouse, Thomas K.

    2017-10-01

    Auroral emissions are the process through which the interaction of a planet’s atmosphere and its external magnetosphere can be studied. Jupiter exhibits auroral emission at a multitude of wavelengths including the X-ray, ultraviolet and near-infrared. Enhanced emission of CH4 and other stratospheric hydrocarbons is also observed coincident with Jupiter’s shorter-wavelength auroral emission (e.g. Caldwell et al., 1980, Icarus 44, 667-675, Kostiuk et al., 1993, JGR 98, 18823). This indicates that auroral processes modify the thermal structure and composition of the auroral stratosphere. The exact mechanism responsible for this auroral-related heating of the stratosphere has however remained elusive (Sinclair et al., 2017a, Icarus 292, 182-207, Sinclair et al., 2017b, GRL, 44, 5345-5354). We will present an analysis of 7.8-μm images of Jupiter measured by COMICS (Cooled Mid-Infrared Camera and Spectrograph, Kataza et al., 2000, Proc. SPIE(4008), 1144-1152) on the Subaru telescope. These images were acquired on January 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, February 4, 5th and May 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th in 2017, allowing the daily variability of Jupiter’s auroral-related stratospheric heating to be tracked. Preliminary results suggest lower stratospheric temperatures are directly forced by the solar wind dynamical pressure. The southern auroral hotspot exhibited a significant increase in brightness temperature over a 24-hour period. Over the same time period, a solar wind propagation model (Tao et al. 2005, JGR 110, A11208) predicts a strong increase in the solar wind dynamical pressure at Jupiter.

  12. Trajectory tracking control for underactuated stratospheric airship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zewei; Huo, Wei; Wu, Zhe

    2012-10-01

    Stratospheric airship is a new kind of aerospace system which has attracted worldwide developing interests for its broad application prospects. Based on the trajectory linearization control (TLC) theory, a novel trajectory tracking control method for an underactuated stratospheric airship is presented in this paper. Firstly, the TLC theory is described sketchily, and the dynamic model of the stratospheric airship is introduced with kinematics and dynamics equations. Then, the trajectory tracking control strategy is deduced in detail. The designed control system possesses a cascaded structure which consists of desired attitude calculation, position control loop and attitude control loop. Two sub-loops are designed for the position and attitude control loops, respectively, including the kinematics control loop and dynamics control loop. Stability analysis shows that the controlled closed-loop system is exponentially stable. Finally, simulation results for the stratospheric airship to track typical trajectories are illustrated to verify effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  13. The dynamic development of gender variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fausto-Sterling, Anne

    2012-01-01

    We diagram and discuss theories of gender identity development espoused by the clinical groups represented in this special issue. We contend that theories of origin relate importantly to clinical practice, and argue that the existing clinical theories are under-developed. Therefore, we develop a dynamic systems framework for gender identity development. Specifically, we suggest that critical aspects of presymbolic gender embodiment occur during infancy as part of the synchronous interplay of caregiver-infant dyads. By 18 months, a transition to symbolic representation and the beginning of an internalization of a sense of gender can be detected and consolidation is quite evident by 3 years of age. We conclude by suggesting empirical studies that could expand and test this framework. With the belief that better, more explicit developmental theory can improve clinical practice, we urge that clinicians take a dynamic developmental view of gender identity formation into account.

  14. An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, P.; Karoly, D. J.; Newmann, P. A.; Clarkson, T. S.; Matthews, W. A.

    1992-07-01

    Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

  15. The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.; Tremblay, B.

    2017-12-01

    The interannual variability of summertime Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is anti-correlated with the leading mode of extratropical atmospheric variability in preceding winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Given this relationship and the need for better seasonal predictions of Arctic SIE, we here examine the role of stratospheric circulation extremes and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in linking the AO and Arctic SIE variability. We show that extremes in the stratospheric circulation during the winter season, namely stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events, are associated with significant anomalies in sea ice concentration in the Bering Straight and the Sea of Okhotsk in winter, the Barents Sea in spring and along the Eurasian coastline in summer in both observations and a fully-coupled, stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The accompanying figure shows the composite mean sea ice concentration anomalies from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) for SSWs (N = 126, top row) and SPVs (N = 99, bottom row) for winter (a,d), spring (b,e) and summer (c,f). Consistent with previous work on the AO, we find that SSWs, which are followed by the negative phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice growth, whereas SPVs, which are followed by the positive phase of the AO at the surface, result in sea ice loss, although the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving these sea ice anomalies in the three Arctic regions, noted above, are different. Our analysis suggests that the presence or absence of stratospheric circulation extremes in winter may play a non-trivial role in determining total September Arctic SIE when combined with other factors.

  16. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Akhil Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  17. Evolution of compact stars and dark dynamical variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, M.Z.; Yousaf, Z. [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan); Ilyas, M. [University of the Punjab, Centre for High Energy Physics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2017-10-15

    This work aims to explore the dark dynamical effects of the f(R, T) modified gravity theory on the dynamics of a compact celestial star. We have taken the interior geometry of a spherical star which is filled with an imperfect fluid distribution. The modified field equations are explored by taking a particular form of the f(R, T) model, i.e. f(R, T) = f{sub 1}(R) + f{sub 2}(R)f{sub 3}(T). These equations are utilized to formulate the well-known structure scalars under the dark dynamical effects of this higher-order gravity theory. Also, with the help of these scalar variables, the evolution equations for expansion and shear are formulated. The whole analysis is made under the condition of a constant R and T. We found a crucial significance of dark source terms and dynamical variables on the evolution and density inhomogeneity of compact objects. (orig.)

  18. Predictive coding of dynamical variables in balanced spiking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boerlin, Martin; Machens, Christian K; Denève, Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Two observations about the cortex have puzzled neuroscientists for a long time. First, neural responses are highly variable. Second, the level of excitation and inhibition received by each neuron is tightly balanced at all times. Here, we demonstrate that both properties are necessary consequences of neural networks that represent information efficiently in their spikes. We illustrate this insight with spiking networks that represent dynamical variables. Our approach is based on two assumptions: We assume that information about dynamical variables can be read out linearly from neural spike trains, and we assume that neurons only fire a spike if that improves the representation of the dynamical variables. Based on these assumptions, we derive a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons that is able to implement arbitrary linear dynamical systems. We show that the membrane voltage of the neurons is equivalent to a prediction error about a common population-level signal. Among other things, our approach allows us to construct an integrator network of spiking neurons that is robust against many perturbations. Most importantly, neural variability in our networks cannot be equated to noise. Despite exhibiting the same single unit properties as widely used population code models (e.g. tuning curves, Poisson distributed spike trains), balanced networks are orders of magnitudes more reliable. Our approach suggests that spikes do matter when considering how the brain computes, and that the reliability of cortical representations could have been strongly underestimated.

  19. Chaotic Dynamical State Variables Selection Procedure Based Image Encryption Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zia Bashir

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in the modern digital era, the use of computer technologies such as smartphones, tablets and the Internet, as well as the enormous quantity of confidential information being converted into digital form have resulted in raised security issues. This, in turn, has led to rapid developments in cryptography, due to the imminent need for system security. Low-dimensional chaotic systems have low complexity and key space, yet they achieve high encryption speed. An image encryption scheme is proposed that, without compromising the security, uses reasonable resources. We introduced a chaotic dynamic state variables selection procedure (CDSVSP to use all state variables of a hyper-chaotic four-dimensional dynamical system. As a result, less iterations of the dynamical system are required, and resources are saved, thus making the algorithm fast and suitable for practical use. The simulation results of security and other miscellaneous tests demonstrate that the suggested algorithm excels at robustness, security and high speed encryption.

  20. The Dynamics of Hadley Circulation Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nicholas Alexander

    The Hadley circulation exerts a dominant control on the surface climate of earth's tropical belt. Its converging surface winds fuel the tropical rains, while subsidence in the subtropics dries and stabilizes the atmosphere, creating deserts on land and stratocumulus decks over the oceans. Because of the strong meridional gradients in temperature and precipitation in the subtropics, any shift in the Hadley circulation edge could project as major changes in surface climate. While climate model simulations predict an expansion of the Hadley cells in response to greenhouse gas forcings, the mechanisms remain elusive. An analysis of the climatology, variability, and response of the Hadley circulation to radiative forcings in climate models and reanalyses illuminates the broader landscape in which Hadley cell expansion is realized. The expansion is a fundamental response of the atmosphere to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as it scales with other key climate system changes, including polar amplification, increasing static stability, stratospheric cooling, and increasing global-mean surface temperatures. Multiple measures of the Hadley circulation edge latitudes co-vary with the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets on all timescales, and both exhibit a robust poleward shift in response to forcings. Further, across models there is a robust coupling between the eddy-driving on the Hadley cells and their width. On the other hand, the subtropical jet and tropopause break latitudes, two common observational proxies for the tropical belt edges, lack a strong statistical relationship with the Hadley cell edges and have no coherent response to forcings. This undermines theories for the Hadley cell width predicated on angular momentum conservation and calls for a new framework for understanding Hadley cell expansion. A numerical framework is developed within an idealized general circulation model to isolate the mean flow and eddy responses of the global atmosphere to

  1. Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510

  2. Dynamic simulation of variable capacity refrigeration systems under abnormal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Nan; Shao Shuangquan; Tian Changqing; Yan Yuying

    2010-01-01

    There are often abnormal working conditions at evaporator outlet of a refrigeration system, such as two-phase state in transient process, and it is essential to investigate such transient behaviours for system design and control strategy. In this paper, a dynamic lumped parameter model is developed to simulate the transient behaviours of refrigeration system with variable capacity in both normal and abnormal working conditions. The appropriate discriminant method is adopted to switch the normal and abnormal conditions smoothly and to eliminate the simulated data oscillation. In order to verify the dynamic model, we built a test system with variable frequency compressor, water-cooling condenser, evaporator and electronic expansion valve. Calculated values from the mathematical model show reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The simulation results show that the transient behaviours of the variable capacity refrigeration system in the abnormal working conditions can be calculated reliably with the dynamic model when the compressor rotary speed or the opening of electronic expansion valve changes abruptly.

  3. How stratospheric are deep stratospheric intrusions? LUAMI 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Trickl

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A large-scale comparison of water-vapour vertical-sounding instruments took place over central Europe on 17 October 2008, during a rather homogeneous deep stratospheric intrusion event (LUAMI, Lindenberg Upper-Air Methods Intercomparison. The measurements were carried out at four observational sites: Payerne (Switzerland, Bilthoven (the Netherlands, Lindenberg (north-eastern Germany, and the Zugspitze mountain (Garmisch-Partenkichen, German Alps, and by an airborne water-vapour lidar system creating a transect of humidity profiles between all four stations. A high data quality was verified that strongly underlines the scientific findings. The intrusion layer was very dry with a minimum mixing ratios of 0 to 35 ppm on its lower west side, but did not drop below 120 ppm on the higher-lying east side (Lindenberg. The dryness hardens the findings of a preceding study (“Part 1”, Trickl et al., 2014 that, e.g., 73 % of deep intrusions reaching the German Alps and travelling 6 days or less exhibit minimum mixing ratios of 50 ppm and less. These low values reflect values found in the lowermost stratosphere and indicate very slow mixing with tropospheric air during the downward transport to the lower troposphere. The peak ozone values were around 70 ppb, confirming the idea that intrusion layers depart from the lowermost edge of the stratosphere. The data suggest an increase of ozone from the lower to the higher edge of the intrusion layer. This behaviour is also confirmed by stratospheric aerosol caught in the layer. Both observations are in agreement with the idea that sections of the vertical distributions of these constituents in the source region were transferred to central Europe without major change. LAGRANTO trajectory calculations demonstrated a rather shallow outflow from the stratosphere just above the dynamical tropopause, for the first time confirming the conclusions in “Part 1” from the Zugspitze CO observations. The

  4. Large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the MAP/WINE campaign winter 1983 to 1984 in comparison with other winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzoldt, K.

    1989-04-01

    For the MAP/WINE winter temperature and wind measurements of rockets were combined with SSU radiances (Stratospheric Sounder Unit onboard the NOAA satellites) and stratopause heights from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) to get a retrieved data set including all available information. By means of this data set a hemispheric geopotential height, temperature and geostrophic wind fields eddy transports for wave mean flow interaction and potential vorticity for the interpretation of nonlinear wave breaking could be computed. Wave reflection at critical lines was investigated with respect of stratospheric warmings. The meridional gradient of the potential vorticity and focusing of wave activity is compared with derived data from satellite observations during other winters.

  5. A Global Climatology of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Derived from Aura OMI and MLS Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziemke, J.R.; Chandra, S.; Labow, G.; Bhartia, P. K.; Froidevaux, L.; Witte, J. C.

    2011-01-01

    A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone is derived by combining six years of Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone measurements for the period October 2004 through December 2010. The OMI/MLS tropospheric ozone climatology exhibits large temporal and spatial variability which includes ozone accumulation zones in the tropical south Atlantic year-round and in the subtropical Mediterranean! Asia region in summer months. High levels of tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere also persist in mid-latitudes over the eastern North American and Asian continents extending eastward over the Pacific Ocean. For stratospheric ozone climatology from MLS, largest ozone abundance lies in the northern hemisphere in the latitude range 70degN-80degN in February-April and in the southern hemisphere around 40degS-50degS during months August-October. The largest stratospheric ozone abundances in the northern hemisphere lie over North America and eastern Asia extending eastward across the Pacific Ocean and in the southern hemisphere south of Australia extending eastward across the dateline. With the advent of many newly developing 3D chemistry and transport models it is advantageous to have such a dataset for evaluating the performance of the models in relation to dynamical and photochemical processes controlling the ozone distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere.

  6. Dynamics of a pulsed continuous-variable quantum memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dantan, Aurelien Romain; Cviklinski, Jean; Pinard, Michel

    2006-01-01

    We study the transfer dynamics of nonclassical fluctuations of light to the ground-state collective spin components of an atomic ensemble during a pulsed quantum memory sequence, and evaluate the relevant physical quantities to be measured in order to characterize such a quantum memory. We show...... in particular that the fluctuations stored into the atoms are emitted in temporal modes which are always different from those of the readout pulse, but which can nevertheless be retrieved efficiently using a suitable temporal mode-matching technique. We give a simple toy model—a cavity with variable...... transmission—that accounts for the behavior of the atomic quantum memory....

  7. Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, Rudolf, F.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Stratospheric aerosols affect the atmospheric energy balance by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation. They also can alter stratospheric chemical cycles by catalyzing heterogeneous reactions which markedly perturb odd nitrogen, chlorine and ozone levels. Aerosol measurements by satellites began in NASA in 1975 with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) program, to be followed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) starting in 1979. Both programs employ the solar occultation, or Earth limb extinction, techniques. Major results of these activities include the discovery of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in both hemispheres in winter, illustrations of the impacts of major (El Chichon 1982 and Pinatubo 1991) eruptions, and detection of a negative global trend in lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric aerosol extinction. This latter result can be considered a triumph of successful worldwide sulfur emission controls. The SAGE record will be continued and improved by SAGE III, currently scheduled for multiple launches beginning in 2000 as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The satellite program has been supplemented by in situ measurements aboard the ER-2 (20 km ceiling) since 1974, and from the DC-8 (13 km ceiling) aircraft beginning in 1989. Collection by wire impactors and subsequent electron microscopic and X-ray energy-dispersive analyses, and optical particle spectrometry have been the principle techniques. Major findings are: (1) The stratospheric background aerosol consists of dilute sulfuric acid droplets of around 0.1 micrometer modal diameter at concentration of tens to hundreds of monograms per cubic meter; (2) Soot from aircraft amounts to a fraction of one percent of the background total aerosol; (3) Volcanic eruptions perturb the sulfuric acid, but not the soot, aerosol abundance by several orders of magnitude; (4) PSCs contain nitric acid at temperatures below 195K, supporting chemical hypotheses

  8. Dynamic Vehicle Routing Using an Improved Variable Neighborhood Search Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingcheng Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to effectively solve the dynamic vehicle routing problem with time windows, the mathematical model is established and an improved variable neighborhood search algorithm is proposed. In the algorithm, allocation customers and planning routes for the initial solution are completed by the clustering method. Hybrid operators of insert and exchange are used to achieve the shaking process, the later optimization process is presented to improve the solution space, and the best-improvement strategy is adopted, which make the algorithm can achieve a better balance in the solution quality and running time. The idea of simulated annealing is introduced to take control of the acceptance of new solutions, and the influences of arrival time, distribution of geographical location, and time window range on route selection are analyzed. In the experiment, the proposed algorithm is applied to solve the different sizes' problems of DVRP. Comparing to other algorithms on the results shows that the algorithm is effective and feasible.

  9. Dynamics of heterogeneous oscillator ensembles in terms of collective variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikovsky, Arkady; Rosenblum, Michael

    2011-04-01

    We consider general heterogeneous ensembles of phase oscillators, sine coupled to arbitrary external fields. Starting with the infinitely large ensembles, we extend the Watanabe-Strogatz theory, valid for identical oscillators, to cover the case of an arbitrary parameter distribution. The obtained equations yield the description of the ensemble dynamics in terms of collective variables and constants of motion. As a particular case of the general setup we consider hierarchically organized ensembles, consisting of a finite number of subpopulations, whereas the number of elements in a subpopulation can be both finite or infinite. Next, we link the Watanabe-Strogatz and Ott-Antonsen theories and demonstrate that the latter one corresponds to a particular choice of constants of motion. The approach is applied to the standard Kuramoto-Sakaguchi model, to its extension for the case of nonlinear coupling, and to the description of two interacting subpopulations, exhibiting a chimera state. With these examples we illustrate that, although the asymptotic dynamics can be found within the framework of the Ott-Antonsen theory, the transients depend on the constants of motion. The most dramatic effect is the dependence of the basins of attraction of different synchronous regimes on the initial configuration of phases.

  10. Water Flow in Karst Aquifer Considering Dynamically Variable Saturation Conduit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chaoqun; Hu, Bill X.

    2017-04-01

    The karst system is generally conceptualized as dual-porosity system, which is characterized by low conductivity and high storage continuum matrix and high conductivity and quick flow conduit networks. And so far, a common numerical model for simulating flow in karst aquifer is MODFLOW2005-CFP, which is released by USGS in 2008. However, the steady-state approach for conduit flow in CFP is physically impractical when simulating very dynamic hydraulics with variable saturation conduit. So, we adopt the method proposed by Reimann et al. (2011) to improve current model, in which Saint-Venant equations are used to model the flow in conduit. Considering the actual background that the conduit is very big and varies along flow path and the Dirichlet boundary varies with rainfall in our study area in Southwest China, we further investigate the influence of conduit diameter and outflow boundary on numerical model. And we also analyze the hydraulic process in multi-precipitation events. We find that the numerical model here corresponds well with CFP for saturated conduit, and it could depict the interaction between matrix and conduit during very dynamic hydraulics pretty well compare with CFP.

  11. Intercomparison of AIRS and HIRDLS stratospheric gravity wave observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Catrin I.; Ern, Manfred; Hoffmann, Lars; Trinh, Quang Thai; Alexander, M. Joan

    2018-01-01

    We investigate stratospheric gravity wave observations by the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) aboard NASA's Aura satellite. AIRS operational temperature retrievals are typically not used for studies of gravity waves, because their vertical and horizontal resolution is rather limited. This study uses data of a high-resolution retrieval which provides stratospheric temperature profiles for each individual satellite footprint. Therefore the horizontal sampling of the high-resolution retrieval is 9 times better than that of the operational retrieval. HIRDLS provides 2-D spectral information of observed gravity waves in terms of along-track and vertical wavelengths. AIRS as a nadir sounder is more sensitive to short-horizontal-wavelength gravity waves, and HIRDLS as a limb sounder is more sensitive to short-vertical-wavelength gravity waves. Therefore HIRDLS is ideally suited to complement AIRS observations. A calculated momentum flux factor indicates that the waves seen by AIRS contribute significantly to momentum flux, even if the AIRS temperature variance may be small compared to HIRDLS. The stratospheric wave structures observed by AIRS and HIRDLS often agree very well. Case studies of a mountain wave event and a non-orographic wave event demonstrate that the observed phase structures of AIRS and HIRDLS are also similar. AIRS has a coarser vertical resolution, which results in an attenuation of the amplitude and coarser vertical wavelengths than for HIRDLS. However, AIRS has a much higher horizontal resolution, and the propagation direction of the waves can be clearly identified in geographical maps. The horizontal orientation of the phase fronts can be deduced from AIRS 3-D temperature fields. This is a restricting factor for gravity wave analyses of limb measurements. Additionally, temperature variances with respect to stratospheric gravity wave activity are compared on a

  12. Intercomparison of AIRS and HIRDLS stratospheric gravity wave observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Meyer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate stratospheric gravity wave observations by the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS aboard NASA's Aqua satellite and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS aboard NASA's Aura satellite. AIRS operational temperature retrievals are typically not used for studies of gravity waves, because their vertical and horizontal resolution is rather limited. This study uses data of a high-resolution retrieval which provides stratospheric temperature profiles for each individual satellite footprint. Therefore the horizontal sampling of the high-resolution retrieval is 9 times better than that of the operational retrieval. HIRDLS provides 2-D spectral information of observed gravity waves in terms of along-track and vertical wavelengths. AIRS as a nadir sounder is more sensitive to short-horizontal-wavelength gravity waves, and HIRDLS as a limb sounder is more sensitive to short-vertical-wavelength gravity waves. Therefore HIRDLS is ideally suited to complement AIRS observations. A calculated momentum flux factor indicates that the waves seen by AIRS contribute significantly to momentum flux, even if the AIRS temperature variance may be small compared to HIRDLS. The stratospheric wave structures observed by AIRS and HIRDLS often agree very well. Case studies of a mountain wave event and a non-orographic wave event demonstrate that the observed phase structures of AIRS and HIRDLS are also similar. AIRS has a coarser vertical resolution, which results in an attenuation of the amplitude and coarser vertical wavelengths than for HIRDLS. However, AIRS has a much higher horizontal resolution, and the propagation direction of the waves can be clearly identified in geographical maps. The horizontal orientation of the phase fronts can be deduced from AIRS 3-D temperature fields. This is a restricting factor for gravity wave analyses of limb measurements. Additionally, temperature variances with respect to stratospheric gravity wave activity are

  13. Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

    2004-01-01

    The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

  14. Relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and the onset of stratospheric final warming in the northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jinggao; Li, Tim; Xu, Haiming

    2018-01-01

    The seasonal timing or onset date of the stratospheric final warming (SFWOD) events has a considerable interannual variability. This paper reports a statistically significant relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and SFWOD in the Northern Hemisphere in two sub-periods (1951-1978 and 1979-2015). Specifically, in the first (second) sub-period, the NPGO is negatively (positively) linked with SFWOD. Composite analyses associated with anomalous NPGO years are conducted to diagnose the dynamic processes of the NPGO-SFWOD link. During 1951-1978, positive NPGO years tend to strengthen the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern in the mid-troposphere in boreal winter. The strengthened PNA pattern in February leads to strong planetary wave activity in the extratropical stratosphere from late February to March and causes the early onset of SFW in early April. By contrast, a strengthened Western Pacific pattern from January to early February in negative NPGO years causes a burst of planetary waves in both the troposphere and extratropical stratosphere from late January to mid-February and results in more winter stratospheric sudden warming events, which, in turn, leads to a dormant spring and a late onset of SFW in late April. During 1979-2015, positive (negative) NPGO years strongly strengthen (weaken) the mid-tropospheric Aleutian low and the Western Pacific pattern from January to mid-March, leading to increased (decreased) planetary wavenumber-1 activity in the stratosphere from mid- to late winter and thus more (less) winter stratospheric sudden warming events and late (early) onsets of SFW in early May (mid-April).

  15. Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedatella, N. M.; Liu, H.-L.; Marsh, D. R.; Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Siddiqui, T. A.

    2018-04-01

    The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ˜10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ˜10-20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.

  16. The Extrapolar SWIFT model (version 1.0): fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

    2018-03-01

    The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends.The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, in which algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equation system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24 h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, overhead ozone column and the mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone-depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these nine variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month, which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading).For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model, replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the

  17. The 'surf zone' in the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, M. E.; Palmer, T. N.

    Synoptic, coarse-grain, isentropic maps of Ertel's potential vorticity Q for the northern middle stratosphere, estimated using a large-Richardson-number approximation, are presented for a number of days in January-February 1979, together with some related isentropic trajectory calculations The effects of substituting FGGE for NMC base data are noted, as well as some slight corrections to maps published earlier. The combined evidence from the observations and from dynamical models strongly indicates the existence of planetary-wave breaking, a process in which material contours are rapidly and irreversibly deformed. In the winter stratosphere this occurs most spectacularly in a gigantic 'nonlinear critical layer', or 'surf zone', which surrounds the main polar vortex, and which tends to erode the vortex when wave amplitudes become large. Some of the FGGE-based Q maps suggest that we may be seeing glimpses of local dynamical instabilities and vortex-rollup phenomena within breaking planetary waves. Related phenomena in the troposphere are discussed. An objective definition of the area A( t) of the main vortex, as it appears on isentropic Q maps, is proposed. A smoothed time series of daily values of A( t) should be a statistically powerful 'circulation index' for the state of the winter-time middle stratosphere, which avoids the loss of information incurred by Eulerian space and time averaging.

  18. A stratospheric aerosol increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, J. M.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1980-01-01

    Large disturbances were noted in the stratospheric aerosol content in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere commencing about 7 months after the eruption of La Soufriere and less than 1 month after the eruption of Sierra Negra. The aerosol was characterized by a very steep size distribution in the 0.15 to 0.25 micron radius range and contained a volatile component. Measurements near the equator and at the South Pole indicate that the disturbance was widespread. These observations were made before the May 18 eruption of Mt. St. Helens.

  19. Dynamic heterogeneity and life history variability in the kittiwake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Orzack, Steven Hecht

    2010-01-01

    1. Understanding the evolution of life histories requires an assessment of the process that generates variation in life histories. Within-population heterogeneity of life histories can be dynamically generated by stochastic variation of reproduction and survival or be generated by individual...... differences that are fixed at birth. 2. We show for the kittiwake that dynamic heterogeneity is a sufficient explanation of observed variation of life histories. 3. The total heterogeneity in life histories has a small contribution from reproductive stage dynamics and a large contribution from survival...... differences. We quantify the diversity in life histories by metrics computed from the generating stochastic process. 4. We show how dynamic heterogeneity can be used as a null model and also how it can lead to positive associations between reproduction and survival across the life span. 5. We believe our...

  20. Lidar investigations on the optical and dynamical properties of cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere regions at a tropical station, Gadanki, India (13.5°N, 79.2°E)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnakumar, Vasudevannair; Satyanarayana, Malladi; Radhakrishnan, Soman R.; Dhaman, Reji K.; Jayeshlal, Glory Selvan; Motty, Gopinathan Nair S.; Pillai, Vellara P. Mahadevan; Raghunath, Karnam; Ratnam, Madineni Venkat; Rao, Duggirala Ramakrishna; Sudhakar, Pindlodi

    2014-01-01

    High altitude cirrus clouds are composed mainly of ice crystals with a variety of sizes and shapes. They have a large influence on Earth's energy balance and global climate. Recent studies indicate that the formation, dissipation, life time, optical, and micro-physical properties are influenced by the dynamical conditions of the surrounding atmosphere like background aerosol, turbulence, etc. In this work, an attempt has been made to quantify some of these characteristics by using lidar and mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radar. Mie lidar and 53 MHz MST radar measurements made over 41 nights during the period 2009 to 2010 from the tropical station, Gadanki, India (13.5°N, 79.2°E). The optical and microphysical properties along with the structure and dynamics of the cirrus are presented as observed under different atmospheric conditions. The study reveals the manifestation of different forms of cirrus with a preferred altitude of formation in the 13 to 14 km altitude. There are considerable differences in the properties obtained among 2009 and 2010 showing significant anomalous behavior in 2010. The clouds observed during 2010 show relatively high asymmetry and large multiple scattering effects. The anomalies found during 2010 may be attributed to the turbulence noticed in the surrounding atmosphere. The results show a clear correlation between the crystal morphology in the clouds and the dynamical conditions of the prevailing atmosphere during the observational period.

  1. Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Portal Frame with Variable Section

    OpenAIRE

    Hao Jianing

    2016-01-01

    Combined with a portal frame design, by the use of finite element software ANSYS, the finite element model of single specimens of portal rigid frame and the overall portal rigid frame building are established. portal rigid frame’s beam and column is variable cross section. Through the modal analysis, comparative analysis of the frequency and vibration type of the radiolabeling specimens and finite element model of the whole, for the further development of variable cross-section portal rigid f...

  2. Crisis-induced unstable dimension variability in a dynamical system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubo, Geraldo T.; Viana, Ricardo L.; Lopes, Sergio R.; Grebogi, Celso

    2008-01-01

    Unstable dimension variability is an extreme form of non-hyperbolic behavior in chaotic systems whose attractors have periodic orbits with a different number of unstable directions. We propose a new mechanism for the onset of unstable dimension variability based on an interior crisis, or a collision between a chaotic attractor and an unstable periodic orbit. We give a physical example by considering a high-dimensional dissipative physical system driven by impulsive periodic forcing

  3. Variable Lysozyme Transport Dynamics on Oxidatively Functionalized Polystyrene Films.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moringo, Nicholas A; Shen, Hao; Tauzin, Lawrence J; Wang, Wenxiao; Bishop, Logan D C; Landes, Christy F

    2017-10-17

    Tuning protein adsorption dynamics at polymeric interfaces is of great interest to many biomedical and material applications. Functionalization of polymer surfaces is a common method to introduce application-specific surface chemistries to a polymer interface. In this work, single-molecule fluorescence microscopy is utilized to determine the adsorption dynamics of lysozyme, a well-studied antibacterial protein, at the interface of polystyrene oxidized via UV exposure and oxygen plasma and functionalized by ligand grafting to produce varying degrees of surface hydrophilicity, surface roughness, and induced oxygen content. Single-molecule tracking indicates lysozyme loading capacities, and surface mobility at the polymer interface is hindered as a result of all functionalization techniques. Adsorption dynamics of lysozyme depend on the extent and the specificity of the oxygen functionalities introduced to the polystyrene surface. Hindered adsorption and mobility are dominated by hydrophobic effects attributed to water hydration layer formation at the functionalized polystyrene surfaces.

  4. Dynamics and chemistry of vortex remnants in late Arctic spring 1997 and 2000: Simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Konopka

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution simulations of the chemical composition of the Arctic stratosphere during late spring 1997 and 2000 were performed with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS. The simulations were performed for the entire northern hemisphere on two isentropic levels 450 K (~18 km and 585 K (~24 km. The spatial distribution and the lifetime of the vortex remnants formed after the vortex breakup in May 1997 display different behavior above and below 20 km. Above 20 km, vortex remnants propagate southward (up to 40°N and are "frozen in'' in the summer circulation without significant mixing. Below 20 km the southward propagation of the remnants is bounded by the subtropical jet. Their lifetime is shorter by a factor of 2 than that above 20 km, owing to significant stirring below this altitude. The behavior of vortex remnants formed in March 2000 is similar but, due to an earlier vortex breakup, dominated during the first 6 weeks after the vortex breakup by westerly winds, even above 20 km. Vortex remnants formed in May 1997 are characterized by large mixing ratios of HCl indicating negligible, halogen-induced ozone loss. In contrast, mid-latitude ozone loss in late boreal spring 2000 is dominated, until mid-April, by halogen-induced ozone destruction within the vortex remnants, and subsequent transport of the ozone-depleted polar air masses (dilution into the mid-latitudes. By varying the intensity of mixing in CLaMS, the impact of mixing on the formation of ClONO2 and ozone depletion is investigated. We find that the photochemical decomposition of HNO3 and not mixing with NOx-rich mid-latitude air is the main source of NOx within the vortex remnants in March and April 2000. Ozone depletion in the remnants is driven by ClOx photolytically formed from ClONO2. At the end of May 1997, the halogen-induced ozone deficit at 450 K poleward of 30°N amounts to ~12% with ~10% in the polar vortex and ~2% in well-isolated vortex remnants

  5. Analysis of Dynamic Characteristics of Portal Frame with Variable Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Jianing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined with a portal frame design, by the use of finite element software ANSYS, the finite element model of single specimens of portal rigid frame and the overall portal rigid frame building are established. portal rigid frame’s beam and column is variable cross section. Through the modal analysis, comparative analysis of the frequency and vibration type of the radiolabeling specimens and finite element model of the whole, for the further development of variable cross-section portal rigid frame of earthquake and wind vibration analysis lay the foundation.

  6. Impact of lower stratospheric ozone on seasonal prediction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelebogile Mathole

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a comparison of trends in lower stratospheric temperatures and summer zonal wind fields based on 27 years of reanalysis data and output from hindcast simulations using a coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation model (OAGCM. Lower stratospheric ozone in the OAGCM was relaxed to the observed climatology and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations were neglected. In the reanalysis, lower stratospheric ozone fields were better represented than in the OAGCM. The spring lower stratospheric/ upper tropospheric cooling in the polar cap observed in the reanalysis, which is caused by a direct ozone depletion in the past two decades and is in agreement with previous studies, did not appear in the OAGCM. The corresponding summer tropospheric response also differed between data sets. In the reanalysis, a statistically significant poleward trend of the summer jet position was found, whereas no such trend was found in the OAGCM. Furthermore, the jet position in the reanalysis exhibited larger interannual variability than that in the OAGCM. We conclude that these differences are caused by the absence of long-term lower stratospheric ozone changes in the OAGCM. Improper representation or non-inclusion of such ozone variability in a prediction model could adversely affect the accuracy of the predictability of summer rainfall forecasts over South Africa.

  7. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  8. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robock, Alan [Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States)

    2015-03-30

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.

  9. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robock, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming

  10. Dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun, Ooi Po; Arsad, Zainudin; Huen, Tan Bee

    2014-07-01

    Knowledge on linkages between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are essential in the formulation of effective monetary policy. This study investigates the relationship between stock prices in Malaysia (KLCI) with four selected macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IPI), quasi money supply (MS2), real exchange rate (REXR) and 3-month Treasury bill (TRB). The variables used in this study are monthly data from 1996 to 2012. Vector error correction (VEC) model and Kalman filter (KF) technique are utilized to assess the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock prices. The results from the cointegration test revealed that the stock prices and macroeconomic variables are cointegrated. Different from the constant estimate from the static VEC model, the KF estimates noticeably exhibit time-varying attributes over the entire sample period. The varying estimates of the impact coefficients should be better reflect the changing economic environment. Surprisingly, IPI is negatively related to the KLCI with the estimates of the impact slowly increase and become positive in recent years. TRB is found to be generally negatively related to the KLCI with the impact fluctuating along the constant estimate of the VEC model. The KF estimates for REXR and MS2 show a mixture of positive and negative impact on the KLCI. The coefficients of error correction term (ECT) are negative in majority of the sample period, signifying the stock prices responded to stabilize any short term deviation in the economic system. The findings from the KF model indicate that any implication that is based on the usual static model may lead to authorities implementing less appropriate policies.

  11. Temporal dynamics and leaf trait variability in Neotropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesketh, Michael Sean

    This thesis explores the variability of leaf traits resulting from changes in season, ecosystem successional stage, and site characteristics. In chapter two, I present a review of the use of remote sensing analysis for the evaluation of Neotropical dry forests. Here, I stress the conclusion, drawn from studies on land cover characterization, biodiversity assessment, and evaluation of forest structural characteristics, that addressing temporal variability in spectral properties is an essential element in the monitoring of these ecosystems. Chapter three describes the effect of wet-dry seasonality on spectral classification of tree and liana species. Highly accurate classification (> 80%) was possible using data from either the wet or dry season. However, this accuracy decreased by a factor of ten when data from the wet season was classified using an algorithm trained on the dry, or vice versa. I also address the potential creation of a spectral taxonomy of species, but found that any clustering based on spectral properties resulted in markedly different arrangements in the wet and dry seasons. In chapter 4, I address the variation present in both physical and spectral leaf traits according to changes in forest successional stage at dry forest sites in Mexico and Costa Rica. I found significant differences in leaf traits between successional stages, but more strongly so in Costa Rica. This variability deceased the accuracy of spectral classification of tree species by a factor of four when classifying data using an algorithm trained on a different successional stage. Chapter 5 shows the influence of seasonality and succession on trait variability in Mexico. Differences in leaf traits between successional stages were found to be greater during the dry season, but were sufficient in both seasons to negatively influence spectral classification of tree species. Throughout this thesis, I show clear and unambiguous evidence of the variability of key physical and spectral

  12. Entanglement Growth in Quench Dynamics with Variable Range Interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schachenmayer

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Studying entanglement growth in quantum dynamics provides both insight into the underlying microscopic processes and information about the complexity of the quantum states, which is related to the efficiency of simulations on classical computers. Recently, experiments with trapped ions, polar molecules, and Rydberg excitations have provided new opportunities to observe dynamics with long-range interactions. We explore nonequilibrium coherent dynamics after a quantum quench in such systems, identifying qualitatively different behavior as the exponent of algebraically decaying spin-spin interactions in a transverse Ising chain is varied. Computing the buildup of bipartite entanglement as well as mutual information between distant spins, we identify linear growth of entanglement entropy corresponding to propagation of quasiparticles for shorter-range interactions, with the maximum rate of growth occurring when the Hamiltonian parameters match those for the quantum phase transition. Counterintuitively, the growth of bipartite entanglement for long-range interactions is only logarithmic for most regimes, i.e., substantially slower than for shorter-range interactions. Experiments with trapped ions allow for the realization of this system with a tunable interaction range, and we show that the different phenomena are robust for finite system sizes and in the presence of noise. These results can act as a direct guide for the generation of large-scale entanglement in such experiments, towards a regime where the entanglement growth can render existing classical simulations inefficient.

  13. Photochemistry of materials in the stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, H.S. [Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, CA (United States)

    1993-12-01

    This research is concerned with global change in the atmosphere, including photochemical modeling and, in the past, experimental gas-phase photochemistry involving molecular dynamics and laboratory study of atmospheric chemical reactions. The experimental work on this project concluded in August 1991, but there is a back-log of several journal articles to be written and submitted for publication. The theoretical work involves photochemical modeling in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and advising the Upper Atmosphere Research Program on Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

  14. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.

  15. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  16. Dynamics of macroeconomic and financial variables in different time horizons

    OpenAIRE

    Kim Karlsson, Hyunjoo

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and four papers dealing with financial issues of open economies, which can be in two broad categorizations: 1) exchange rate movements and 2) stock market interdependence. The first paper covers how the exchange rate changes affect the prices of internationally traded goods. With the variables (the price of exports in exporters’ currency and the exchange rate, both of which are in logarithmic form) being cointegrated, a model with both lon...

  17. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  18. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  19. Variability and Order in Cytoskeletal Dynamics of Motile Amoeboid Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Hsin-Fang; Bodenschatz, Eberhard; Westendorf, Christian; Gholami, Azam; Pumir, Alain; Tarantola, Marco; Beta, Carsten

    2017-10-01

    The chemotactic motion of eukaryotic cells such as leukocytes or metastatic cancer cells relies on membrane protrusions driven by the polymerization and depolymerization of actin. Here we show that the response of the actin system to a receptor stimulus is subject to a threshold value that varies strongly from cell to cell. Above the threshold, we observe pronounced cell-to-cell variability in the response amplitude. The polymerization time, however, is almost constant over the entire range of response amplitudes, while the depolymerization time increases with increasing amplitude. We show that cell-to-cell variability in the response amplitude correlates with the amount of Arp2 /3 , a protein that enhances actin polymerization. A time-delayed feedback model for the cortical actin concentration is consistent with all our observations and confirms the role of Arp2 /3 in the observed cell-to-cell variability. Taken together, our observations highlight robust regulation of the actin response that enables a reliable timing of cell movement.

  20. Moessbauer radiation dynamical diffraction in crystals being subjected to the action of external variable fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baryshevskii, V.G.; Skadorov, V.V.

    1986-01-01

    A dynamical theory is developed of the Moessbauer radiation diffraction by crystals being subjected to an variable external field action. Equations describing the dynamical diffraction by nonstationary crystals are obtained. It is shown that the resonant interaction between Moessbauer radiation and shift field induced in the crystal by a variable external field giving rise to an effective conversion of the incident wave into a wave with changed frequency. (author)

  1. Addressing Thermal and Performance Variability Issues in Dynamic Processors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshii, Kazutomo [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Llopis, Pablo [Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain); Zhang, Kaicheng [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Luo, Yingyi [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Ogrenci-Memik, Seda [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Memik, Gokhan [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Sankaran, Rajesh [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Beckman, Pete [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2017-03-01

    As CMOS scaling nears its end, parameter variations (process, temperature and voltage) are becoming a major concern. To overcome parameter variations and provide stability, modern processors are becoming dynamic, opportunistically adjusting voltage and frequency based on thermal and energy constraints, which negatively impacts traditional bulk-synchronous parallelism-minded hardware and software designs. As node-level architecture is growing in complexity, implementing variation control mechanisms only with hardware can be a challenging task. In this paper we investigate a software strategy to manage hardwareinduced variations, leveraging low-level monitoring/controlling mechanisms.

  2. Variability in diet composition and dynamics of radiocaesium in moose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palo, R.T.; Wallin, K.

    1996-01-01

    1. Moose is the most important game species in Sweden and the fall-out after the Chernobyl accident has severely affected hunting of this animal. Nine years after the accident many animals in areas that received high deposition still show activity concentrations that exceed the limit for human consumption. Whilst the mechanism for uptake of 137 Cs in animals is fairly well known, the extent of variability in diet composition in wild animals is still puzzling and our ability to predict future trends in activity concentration of radionuclides limited. Studies on moose since the Chernobyl accident reveal considerable variation in 137 Cs-transfer between years and between individuals even in the same area. Differences in diet composition among individuals may explain the high degree of observed variability. Seventy per cent of the diet of moose in September is composed of Vaccinium myrtillus, Betula spp. and Salix spp. Significant differences between the proportion of birch and other components and species diversity within the diets among some years were measured. 2. We used a simple model, applying Monte Carlo simulations to create artificial diets for 137 Cs intake in moose. The model suggests that changes of diet composition or habitat use are the main reasons for the large variation of 137 Cs observed in moose. The variability in activity concentrations between different years obscure the decline expected from physical decay. The model shows that the standard deviation of 137 Cs activity concentration in moose meat declines with time as differences in activity concentration between food plants diminish. The coefficient of variation varies considerably among years in the real population and the model suggests that even at comparatively low mean values a large variation between individuals is expected. The model predicts that even after 30 years, the half-life of 137 Cs, a high mean level and a large variation could be possible

  3. Dynamics of a seismogenic fault subject to variable strain rate

    OpenAIRE

    M. Dragoni; A. Piombo

    2011-01-01

    The behaviour of seismogenic faults is generally investigated under the assumption that they are subject to a constant strain rate. We consider the effect of a slowly variable strain rate on the recurrence times of earthquakes generated by a single fault. To this aim a spring-block system is employed as a low-order analog of the fault. Two cases are considered: a sinusoidal oscillation in the driver velocity and a monotonic change from one velocity value to another. In the f...

  4. First Simulations of Designing Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering to Meet Multiple Simultaneous Climate Objectives: DESIGNING STRATOSPHERIC GEOENGINEERING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Ben [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; MacMartin, Douglas G. [Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca NY USA; Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA USA; Mills, Michael J. [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Richter, Jadwiga H. [Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Tilmes, Simone [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Lamarque, Jean-Francois [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Tribbia, Joseph J. [Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA; Vitt, Francis [Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA

    2017-12-07

    We describe the first simulations of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering using multiple injection locations to meet multiple simultaneous surface temperature objectives. Simulations were performed using CESM1(WACCM), a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with fully interactive stratospheric chemistry, dynamics (including an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation), and a sophisticated treatment of sulfate aerosol formation, microphysical growth, and deposition. The objectives are defined as maintaining three temperature features at their 2020 levels against a background of the RCP8.5 scenario over the period 2020-2099. These objectives are met using a feedback mechanism in which the rate of sulfur dioxide injection at each of the four locations is adjusted independently every year of simulation. Even in the presence of uncertainties, nonlinearities, and variability, the objectives are met, predominantly by SO2 injection at 30°N and 30°S. By the last year of simulation, the feedback algorithm calls for a total injection rate of 51 Tg SO2 per year. The injections are not in the tropics, which results in a greater degree of linearity of the surface climate response with injection amount than has been found in many previous studies using injection at the equator. Because the objectives are defined in terms of annual mean temperature, the required geeongineering results in "overcooling" during summer and "undercooling" during winter. The hydrological cycle is also suppressed as compared to the reference values corresponding to the year 2020. The demonstration we describe in this study is an important step toward understanding what geoengineering can do and what it cannot do.

  5. Dynamics with infinitely many derivatives: variable coefficient equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnaby, Neil; Kamran, Niky

    2008-01-01

    Infinite order differential equations have come to play an increasingly significant role in theoretical physics. Field theories with infinitely many derivatives are ubiquitous in string field theory and have attracted interest recently also from cosmologists. Crucial to any application is a firm understanding of the mathematical structure of infinite order partial differential equations. In our previous work we developed a formalism to study the initial value problem for linear infinite order equations with constant coefficients. Our approach relied on the use of a contour integral representation for the functions under consideration. In many applications, including the study of cosmological perturbations in nonlocal inflation, one must solve linearized partial differential equations about some time-dependent background. This typically leads to variable coefficient equations, in which case the contour integral methods employed previously become inappropriate. In this paper we develop the theory of a particular class of linear infinite order partial differential equations with variable coefficients. Our formalism is particularly well suited to the types of equations that arise in nonlocal cosmological perturbation theory. As an example to illustrate our formalism we compute the leading corrections to the scalar field perturbations in p-adic inflation and show explicitly that these are small on large scales.

  6. Impact of major volcanic eruptions on stratospheric water vapour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Löffler

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on the Earth's weather and climate system. Besides the subsequent tropospheric changes, the stratosphere is also influenced by large eruptions. Here changes in stratospheric water vapour after the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón in Mexico in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on the Philippines in 1991 are investigated with chemistry–climate model simulations. This study is based on two simulations with specified dynamics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC model, performed within the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo project, of which only one includes the long-wave volcanic forcing through prescribed aerosol optical properties. The results show a significant increase in stratospheric water vapour induced by the eruptions, resulting from increased heating rates and the subsequent changes in stratospheric and tropopause temperatures in the tropics. The tropical vertical advection and the South Asian summer monsoon are identified as sources for the additional water vapour in the stratosphere. Additionally, volcanic influences on tropospheric water vapour and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO are evident, if the long-wave forcing is strong enough. Our results are corroborated by additional sensitivity simulations of the Mount Pinatubo period with reduced nudging and reduced volcanic aerosol extinction.

  7. Heuristic techniques for the analysis of variability as a dynamic aspect of change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dijk, M.W.G.; Van Geert, P.

    Due to the influence of dynamic systems and microgenetic perspectives, variability is nowadays often seen as an important phenomenon that helps us understand the underlying mechanisms of development. This paper aims at demonstrating several simple techniques that can be used to analyse variability

  8. Suppression of chaos at slow variables by rapidly mixing fast dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramov, R.

    2012-04-01

    One of the key questions about chaotic multiscale systems is how the fast dynamics affects chaos at the slow variables, and, therefore, impacts uncertainty and predictability of the slow dynamics. Here we demonstrate that the linear slow-fast coupling with the total energy conservation property promotes the suppression of chaos at the slow variables through the rapid mixing at the fast variables, both theoretically and through numerical simulations. A suitable mathematical framework is developed, connecting the slow dynamics on the tangent subspaces to the infinite-time linear response of the mean state to a constant external forcing at the fast variables. Additionally, it is shown that the uncoupled dynamics for the slow variables may remain chaotic while the complete multiscale system loses chaos and becomes completely predictable at the slow variables through increasing chaos and turbulence at the fast variables. This result contradicts the common sense intuition, where, naturally, one would think that coupling a slow weakly chaotic system with another much faster and much stronger mixing system would result in general increase of chaos at the slow variables.

  9. Dynamic Variability of Isometric Action Tremor in Precision Pinching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Eakin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary development of isometric force impulse frequencies, power, and the directional concordance of changes in oscillatory tremor during performance of a two-digit force regulation task was examined. Analyses compared a patient group having tremor confounding volitional force regulation with a control group having no neuropathological diagnosis. Dependent variables for tremor varied temporally and spatially, both within individual trials and across trials, across individuals, across groups, and between digits. Particularly striking findings were magnitude increases during approaches to cue markers and shifts in the concordance phase from pinching toward rigid sway patterns as the magnitude increased. Magnitudes were significantly different among trace line segments of the task and were characterized by differences in relative force required and by the task progress with respect to cue markers for beginning, reversing force change direction, or task termination. The main systematic differences occurred during cue marker approach and were independent of trial sequence order.

  10. Particle dynamics in a wave with variable amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cary, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    The analysis of the phase evolution between separatrix crossings has been published in Physics D. The analysis of diffusion due to separatrix crossing in a resonance with a slow temporal variation has been written up and published in Physica D. A new method of solving the problem of transport of charged particles through a spatially-dependent accelerating structure was found. This method essentially relies on the use of a nonmonotonically increasing time variable in the analysis. Advances in the use of Hamilton-Jacobi methods to obtain invariant surfaces of accelerators have been made. A two-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi solver was improved by including the Broyden update method for calculating the Jacobian. 20 refs., 6 figs

  11. Modeling study of the ionospheric responses to the quasi-biennial oscillations of the sun and stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jack C.; Tsai-Lin, Rong; Chang, Loren C.; Wu, Qian; Lin, Charles C. H.; Yue, Jia

    2018-06-01

    The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a persistent oscillation in the zonal mean zonal winds of the low latitude middle atmosphere that is driven by breaking planetary and gravity waves with a period near two years. The atmospheric tides that dominate the dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region (MLT, between heights of 70-120 km) are excited in the troposphere and stratosphere, and propagate through QBO-modulated zonal mean zonal wind fields. This allows the MLT tidal response to also be modulated by the QBO, with implications for ionospheric/thermospheric variability. Interannual oscillations in solar radiation can also directly drive the variations in the ionosphere with similar periodicities through the photoionization. Many studies have observed the connection between the solar activity and QBO signal in ionospheric features such as total electron content (TEC). In this research, we develop an empirical model to isolate stratospheric QBO-related tidal variability in the MLT diurnal and semidiurnal tides using values from assimilated TIMED satellite data. Migrating tidal fields corresponding to stratospheric QBO eastward and westward phases, as well as with the quasi-biennial variations in solar activity isolated by the Multi-dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) analysis from Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), are then used to drive the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). The numerical experiment results indicate that the ionospheric QBO is mainly driven by the solar quasi-biennial variations during the solar maximum, since the solar quasi-biennial variation amplitude is directly proportionate to the solar cycle. The ionospheric QBO in the model is sensitive to both the stratospheric QBO and solar quasi-biennial variations during the solar minimum, with solar effects still playing a stronger role.

  12. Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... rate and describes mainly linear correlations. Non-linear predictability is correlated with heart rate variability measured as the standard deviation of the R-R intervals and the respiratory activity expressed as power of the high-frequency band. The dynamics of heart rate variability changes suddenly...

  13. Heart rate variability alters cardiac repolarization and electromechanical dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phadumdeo, Vrishti M; Weinberg, Seth H

    2018-04-07

    Heart rate continuously varies due to autonomic regulation, stochasticity in pacemaking, and circadian rhythm, collectively termed heart rate variability (HRV), during normal physiological conditions. Low HRV is clinically associated with an elevated risk of cardiac arrhythmias. Alternans, a beat-to-beat alternation in action potential duration (APD) and/or intracellular calcium (Ca) transient, is a well-known risk factor associated with cardiac arrhythmias that is typically studied under conditions of a constant pacing rate, i.e., the absence of HRV. In this study, we investigate the effects of HRV on the interplay between APD, Ca, and electromechanical properties, employing a nonlinear discrete-time map model that governs APD and intracellular Ca cycling with a stochastic pacing period. We find that HRV can decrease variation in APD and peak Ca at fast pacing rates for which alternans is present. Further, increased HRV typically disrupts the alternating pattern for both APD and peak Ca and weakens the correlation between APD and peak Ca, thus decoupling Ca-mediated instabilities from repolarization alternation. We find that the efficacy of these effects is regulated by the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca uptake rate. Overall, these results demonstrate that HRV disrupts arrhythmogenic alternans and suggests that HRV may be a significant factor in preventing life-threatening arrhythmias. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grewe, Volker

    2007-01-01

    A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Nino), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO x emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric

  15. Condensed Acids In Antartic Stratospheric Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueschel, R. F.; Snetsinger, K. G.; Toon, O. B.; Ferry, G. V.; Starr, W. L.; Oberbeck, V. R.; Chan, K. R.; Goodman, J. K.; Livingston, J. M.; Verma, S.; hide

    1992-01-01

    Report dicusses nitrate, sulfate, and chloride contents of stratospheric aerosols during 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Emphasizes growth of HNO3*3H2O particles in polar stratospheric clouds. Important in testing theories concerning Antarctic "ozone hole".

  16. EVIDENCE FOR DYNAMICAL CHANGES IN A TRANSITIONAL PROTOPLANETARY DISK WITH MID-INFRARED VARIABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muzerolle, James; Flaherty, Kevin; Balog, Zoltan; Smith, Paul S.; Rieke, George H.; Furlan, Elise; Allen, Lori; Muench, August; Calvet, Nuria; D'Alessio, Paola; Megeath, S. Thomas; Sherry, William H.

    2009-01-01

    We present multi-epoch Spitzer Space Telescope observations of the transitional disk LRLL 31 in the 2-3 Myr old star-forming region IC 348. Our measurements show remarkable mid-infrared variability on timescales as short as one week. The infrared continuum emission exhibits systematic wavelength-dependent changes that suggest corresponding dynamical changes in the inner disk structure and variable shadowing of outer disk material. We propose several possible sources for the structural changes, including a variable accretion rate or a stellar or planetary companion embedded in the disk. Our results indicate that variability studies in the infrared can provide important new constraints on protoplanetary disk behavior.

  17. On particles in the Arctic stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Jørgensen

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Soon after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole it became clear that particles in the polar stratosphere had an infl uence on the destruction of the ozone layer. Two major types of particles, sulphate aerosols and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs, provide the surfaces where fast heterogeneous chemical reactions convert inactive halogen reservoir species into potentially ozone-destroying radicals. Lidar measurements have been used to classify the PSCs. Following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991 it was found that the Arctic stratosphere was loaded with aerosols, and that aerosols observed with lidar and ozone observed with ozone sondes displayed a layered structure, and that the aerosol and ozone contents in the layers frequently appeared to be negatively correlated. The layered structure was probably due to modulation induced by the dynamics at the edge of the polar vortex. Lidar observations of the Mt. Pinatubo aerosols were in several cases accompanied by balloon-borne backscatter soundings, whereby backscatter measurements in three different wavelengths made it possible to obtain information about the particle sizes. An investigation of the infl uence of synoptic temperature histories on the physical properties of PSC particles has shown that most of the liquid type 1b particles were observed in the process of an ongoing, relatively fast, and continuous cooling from temperatures clearly above the nitric acid trihydrate condensation temperature (TNAT. On the other hand, it appeared that a relatively long period, with a duration of at least 1-2 days, at temperatures below TNAT provide the conditions which may lead to the production of solid type 1a PSCs.

  18. Dynamic analysis of hybrid energy systems under flexible operation and variable renewable generation – Part II: Dynamic cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Humberto E.; Mohanty, Amit; Lin, Wen-Chiao; Cherry, Robert S.

    2013-01-01

    Dynamic analysis of HES (hybrid energy systems) under flexible operation and variable renewable generation is considered in this two-part communication to better understand various challenges and opportunities associated with the high system variability arising from the integration of renewable energy into the power grid. Advanced HES solutions are investigated in which multiple forms of energy commodities, such as electricity and chemical products, may be exchanged. In particular, a comparative dynamic cost analysis is conducted in this part two of the communication to determine best HES options. The cost function includes a set of metrics for computing fixed costs, such as fixed operations and maintenance and overnight capital costs, and also variable operational costs, such as cost of operational variability, variable operations and maintenance cost, and cost of environmental impact, together with revenues. Assuming natural gas, coal, and nuclear as primary heat sources, preliminary results identify the level of renewable penetration at which a given advanced HES option (e.g., a nuclear hybrid) becomes increasingly more economical than a traditional electricity-only generation solution. Conditions are also revealed under which carbon resources may be better utilized as carbon sources for chemical production rather than as combustion material for electricity generation. - Highlights: ► Dynamic analysis of HES to investigate challenges related to renewable penetration. ► Evaluation of dynamic synergies among HES constituents on system performance. ► Comparison of traditional versus advanced HES candidates. ► Dynamic cost analysis of HES candidates to investigate their economic viability. ► Identification of conditions under which an energy commodity may be best utilized

  19. Characteristics of Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Layer Observed by CALIOP and Ground Based Lidar at Equatorial Atmosphere Radar Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abo, Makoto; Shibata, Yasukuni; Nagasawa, Chikao

    2018-04-01

    We investigated the relation between major tropical volcanic eruptions in the equatorial region and the stratospheric aerosol data, which have been collected by the ground based lidar observations at at Equatorial Atmosphere Radar site between 2004 and 2015 and the CALIOP observations in low latitude between 2006 and 2015. We found characteristic dynamic behavior of volcanic stratospheric aerosol layers over equatorial region.

  20. Stratospheric Platforms for Monitoring Purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konigorski, D.; Gratzel, U.; Obersteiner, M.; Schneidereit, M.

    2010-01-01

    Stratospheric platforms are emerging systems based on challenging technology. Goal is to create a platform, payload, and mission design which is able to complement satellite services on a local scale. Applications are close to traditional satellite business in telecommunication, navigation, science, and earth observation and include for example mobile telecommunications, navigation augmentation, atmospheric research, or border control. Stratospheric platforms could potentially support monitoring activities related to safeguards, e.g. by imagery of surfaces, operational conditions of nuclear facilities, and search for undeclared nuclear activities. Stratospheric platforms are intended to be flown in an altitude band between 16 and 30 km, above 16-20 km to take advantage of usually lower winds facilitating station keeping, below 30 km to limit the challenges to achieve a reasonable payload at acceptable platform sizes. Stratospheric platforms could substitute satellites which are expensive and lack upgrade capabilities for new equipment. Furthermore they have practically an unlimited time over an area of interest. It is intended to keep the platforms operational and maintenance free on a 24/7 basis with an average deployment time of 3 years. Geostationary satellites lack resolution. Potential customers like Armed Forces, National Agencies and commercial customers have indicated interest in the use of stratospheric platforms. Governmental entities are looking for cheaper alternatives to communications and surveillance satellites and stratospheric platforms could offer the following potential advantages: Lower operational cost than satellite or UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) constellation (fleet required); Faster deployment than satellite constellation; Repositioning capability and ability to loiter as required; Persistent long-term real-time services over a fairly large regional spot; Surge capability: Able to extend capability (either monitoring or communications

  1. Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke David; Newman, Paul A.; Song, InSun

    2013-01-01

    A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

  2. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Joseph W.; Friedlander, David; Kopasakis, George

    2015-01-01

    This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

  3. Dynamics of Oxidation of Aluminum Nanoclusters using Variable Charge Molecular-Dynamics Simulations on Parallel Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Timothy; Kalia, Rajiv K.; Nakano, Aiichiro; Vashishta, Priya; Ogata, Shuji; Rodgers, Stephen

    1999-06-01

    Oxidation of aluminum nanoclusters is investigated with a parallel molecular-dynamics approach based on dynamic charge transfer among atoms. Structural and dynamic correlations reveal that significant charge transfer gives rise to large negative pressure in the oxide which dominates the positive pressure due to steric forces. As a result, aluminum moves outward and oxygen moves towards the interior of the cluster with the aluminum diffusivity 60% higher than that of oxygen. A stable 40 Å thick amorphous oxide is formed; this is in excellent agreement with experiments.

  4. AeroPropulsoServoElasticity: Dynamic Modeling of the Variable Cycle Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George

    2012-01-01

    This presentation was made at the 2012 Fundamental Aeronautics Program Technical Conference and it covers research work for the Dynamic Modeling of the Variable cycle Propulsion System that was done under the Supersonics Project, in the area of AeroPropulsoServoElasticity. The presentation covers the objective for the propulsion system dynamic modeling work, followed by the work that has been done so far to model the variable Cycle Engine, modeling of the inlet, the nozzle, the modeling that has been done to model the affects of flow distortion, and finally presenting some concluding remarks and future plans.

  5. Solar Variability and Planetary Climates

    CERN Document Server

    Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M

    2007-01-01

    Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...

  6. Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Vikas, E-mail: vikas.kumar@urv.cat [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Barros, Felipe P.J. de [Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089, CA (United States); Schuhmacher, Marta [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier [Hydrogeology Group, Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, University Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech, Barcelona 08034 (Spain)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic parametric interaction in daily dose prediction under uncertainty. • Importance of temporal dynamics associated with the dose. • Different dose experienced by different population cohorts as a function of time. • Relevance of uncertainty reduction in the input parameters shows temporal dynamism. -- Abstract: We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty.

  7. Bounds of Double Integral Dynamic Inequalities in Two Independent Variables on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Saker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Our aim in this paper is to establish some explicit bounds of the unknown function in a certain class of nonlinear dynamic inequalities in two independent variables on time scales which are unbounded above. These on the one hand generalize and on the other hand furnish a handy tool for the study of qualitative as well as quantitative properties of solutions of partial dynamic equations on time scales. Some examples are considered to demonstrate the applications of the results.

  8. Towards a Theory of Tropical/Midlatitude Mass Exchange from the Earth's Surface through the Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, Dana

    1998-01-01

    The main findings of this research project have been the following: (1) there is a significant feedback from the stratosphere on tropospheric dynamics, and (2) a detailed analysis of the interaction between tropical and polar wave breaking in controlling stratospheric mixing. Two papers are were written and are included. The first paper is titled, "A New Perspective on the Dynamical Link Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere." Atmospheric processes of tropospheric origin can perturb the stratosphere, but direct feedback in the opposite direction is usually assumed to be negligible, despite the troposphere's sensitivity to changes in the release of wave activity into the stratosphere. Here, however, we present evidence that such a feedback exists and can be significant. We find that if the wintertime Arctic polar stratospheric vortex is distorted, either by waves propagating upward from the troposphere or by eastward-travelling stratospheric waves, then there is a concomitant redistribution of stratospheric potential vorticity that induces perturbations in key meteorological fields in the upper troposphere. The feedback is large despite the much greater mass of the troposphere: it can account for up to half of the geopotential height anomaly at the tropopause. Although the relative strength of the feedback is partly due to a cancellation between contributions to these anomalies from lower altitudes, our results imply that stratospheric dynamics and its feedback on the troposphere are more significant for climate modelling and data assimilation than was previously assumed. The second article is titled "Diagnosing the Polar Excitation of Subtropical Waves in the Stratosphere". The poleward migration of planetary scale tongues of subtropical air has often been associated with intense polar vortex disturbances in the stratosphere. This question of vortex influence is reexamined from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. Anomalous geopotential height and wind fields

  9. Local dynamic stability and variability of gait are associated with fall history in elderly subjects

    OpenAIRE

    Toebes, M.J.P.; Hoozemans, M.J.M.; Furrer, R.; Dekker, J.; van Dieen, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Gait parameters that can be measured with simple instrumentation may hold promise for identifying individuals at risk of falling. Increased variability of gait is associated with increased risk of falling, but research on additional parameters indicates that local dynamic stability (LDS) of gait may also be a predictor of fall risk. The objective of the present study was to assess the association between gait variability, LDS of gait and fall history in a large sample of elderly subjects.Subj...

  10. Variable-structure approaches analysis, simulation, robust control and estimation of uncertain dynamic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Senkel, Luise

    2016-01-01

    This edited book aims at presenting current research activities in the field of robust variable-structure systems. The scope equally comprises highlighting novel methodological aspects as well as presenting the use of variable-structure techniques in industrial applications including their efficient implementation on hardware for real-time control. The target audience primarily comprises research experts in the field of control theory and nonlinear dynamics but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

  11. Stratospheric aerosols and precursor gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    Measurements were made of the aerosol size, height and geographical distribution, their composition and optical properties, and their temporal variation with season and following large volcanic eruptions. Sulfur-bearing gases were measured in situ in the stratosphere, and studied of the chemical and physical processes which control gas-to-particle conversion were carried out in the laboratory.

  12. Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

    2016-06-01

    Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

  13. Complexity analyses show two distinct types of nonlinear dynamics in short heart period variability recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; De Maria, Beatrice; Cysarz, Dirk; Van Leeuwen, Peter; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Gnecchi-Ruscone, Tomaso

    2015-01-01

    Two diverse complexity metrics quantifying time irreversibility and local prediction, in connection with a surrogate data approach, were utilized to detect nonlinear dynamics in short heart period (HP) variability series recorded in fetuses, as a function of the gestational period, and in healthy humans, as a function of the magnitude of the orthostatic challenge. The metrics indicated the presence of two distinct types of nonlinear HP dynamics characterized by diverse ranges of time scales. These findings stress the need to render more specific the analysis of nonlinear components of HP dynamics by accounting for different temporal scales. PMID:25806002

  14. Simulation of stratospheric water vapor trends: impact on stratospheric ozone chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stenke

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A transient model simulation of the 40-year time period 1960 to 1999 with the coupled climate-chemistry model (CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM shows a stratospheric water vapor increase over the last two decades of 0.7 ppmv and, additionally, a short-term increase after major volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, a long-term decrease in global total ozone as well as a short-term ozone decline in the tropics after volcanic eruptions are modeled. In order to understand the resulting effects of the water vapor changes on lower stratospheric ozone chemistry, different perturbation simulations were performed with the CCM ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM feeding the water vapor perturbations only to the chemistry part. Two different long-term perturbations of lower stratospheric water vapor, +1 ppmv and +5 ppmv, and a short-term perturbation of +2 ppmv with an e-folding time of two months were applied. An additional stratospheric water vapor amount of 1 ppmv results in a 5–10% OH increase in the tropical lower stratosphere between 100 and 30 hPa. As a direct consequence of the OH increase the ozone destruction by the HOx cycle becomes 6.4% more effective. Coupling processes between the HOx-family and the NOx/ClOx-family also affect the ozone destruction by other catalytic reaction cycles. The NOx cycle becomes 1.6% less effective, whereas the effectiveness of the ClOx cycle is again slightly enhanced. A long-term water vapor increase does not only affect gas-phase chemistry, but also heterogeneous ozone chemistry in polar regions. The model results indicate an enhanced heterogeneous ozone depletion during antarctic spring due to a longer PSC existence period. In contrast, PSC formation in the northern hemisphere polar vortex and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion during arctic spring are not affected by the water vapor increase, because of the less PSC activity. Finally, this study shows that 10% of the global total ozone decline in the transient model run

  15. The extrapolar SWIFT-model: Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

    OpenAIRE

    Kreyling, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this PhD-thesis was the development of a fast yet accurate chemistry scheme for an interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer. The SWIFT-model is mainly intended for use in Global Climate Models (GCMs). For computing-time reasons GCMs often do not employ full stratospheric chemistry modules, but use prescribed ozone instead. This method does not consider the interaction between atmospheric dynamics and the ozone layer and can neither resolve the inter-annu...

  16. Dynamic modelling and analysis of a wind turbine with variable speed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbuch, M.

    1986-01-01

    On behalf of the operation of the Dutch National Wind Farm, which is under construction now, a study is being performed on the control system design of variable speed wind turbines. To realize this a non-linear dynamic model of a wind turbine with synchronous generator and AC/ DC/AC conversion has

  17. Dynamic Analysis of Fluid Power Drive-trains for Variable Speed Wind Turbines : A Parameter Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jarquin Laguna, A.; Diepeveen, N.F.B.

    2013-01-01

    In the pursuit of making wind energy technology more economically attractive, the application of fluid power technology for the transmission of wind energy is being developed by several parties all over the world. This paper presents a dynamic model of a fluid power transmission for variable speed

  18. Local dynamic stability and variability of gait are associated with fall history in elderly subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toebes, M.J.P.; Hoozemans, M.J.M.; Furrer, R.; Dekker, J.; van Dieen, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Gait parameters that can be measured with simple instrumentation may hold promise for identifying individuals at risk of falling. Increased variability of gait is associated with increased risk of falling, but research on additional parameters indicates that local dynamic stability (LDS) of gait may

  19. Dynamics in species composition of stream fish assemblages: environmental variability and nested subsets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher M. Taylor; Melvin L. Warren

    2001-01-01

    Stream landscapes are highly variable in space and time and, like terrestrial landscapes, the resources they contain are patchily distributed. Organisms may disperse among patches to fulfill life-history requirements, but biotic and abiotic factors may limit patch or locality occupancy. Thus, the dynamics of immigration and extinction determine, in part, the local...

  20. Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

  1. Adaptive Synchronization of Fractional Order Complex-Variable Dynamical Networks via Pinning Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Da-Wei; Yan, Jie; Wang, Nian; Liang, Dong

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, the synchronization of fractional order complex-variable dynamical networks is studied using an adaptive pinning control strategy based on close center degree. Some effective criteria for global synchronization of fractional order complex-variable dynamical networks are derived based on the Lyapunov stability theory. From the theoretical analysis, one concludes that under appropriate conditions, the complex-variable dynamical networks can realize the global synchronization by using the proper adaptive pinning control method. Meanwhile, we succeed in solving the problem about how much coupling strength should be applied to ensure the synchronization of the fractional order complex networks. Therefore, compared with the existing results, the synchronization method in this paper is more general and convenient. This result extends the synchronization condition of the real-variable dynamical networks to the complex-valued field, which makes our research more practical. Finally, two simulation examples show that the derived theoretical results are valid and the proposed adaptive pinning method is effective. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61201227, National Natural Science Foundation of China Guangdong Joint Fund under Grant No. U1201255, the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province under Grant No. 1208085MF93, 211 Innovation Team of Anhui University under Grant Nos. KJTD007A and KJTD001B, and also supported by Chinese Scholarship Council

  2. Titan's Stratospheric Condensibles at High Northern Latitudes During Northern Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Carrie; Samuelson, R.; Achterberg, R.

    2012-01-01

    The Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) instrument on board Voyager 1 caught the first glimpse of an unidentified particulate feature in Titan's stratosphere that spectrally peaks at 221 per centimeter. Until recently, this feature that we have termed 'the haystack,' has been seen persistently at high northern latitudes with the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument onboard Cassini, The strength of the haystack emission feature diminishes rapidly with season, becoming drastically reduced at high northern latitudes, as Titan transitions from northern winter into spring, In contrast to IRIS whose shortest wavenumber was 200 per centimeter, CIRS extends down to 10 per centimeter, thus revealing an entirely unexplored spectral region in which nitrile ices have numerous broad lattice vibration features, Unlike the haystack, which is only found at high northern latitudes during northern winter/early northern spring, this geometrically thin nitrile cloud pervades Titan's lower stratosphere, spectrally peaking at 160 per centimeter, and is almost global in extent spanning latitudes 85 N to 600 S, The inference of nitrile ices are consistent with the highly restricted altitude ranges over which these features are observed, and appear to be dominated by a mixture of HCN and HC3N, The narrow range in altitude over which the nitrile ices extend is unlike the haystack, whose vertical distribution is significantly broader, spanning roughly 70 kilometers in altitude in Titan's lower stratosphere, The nitrile clouds that CIRS observes are located in a dynamically stable region of Titan's atmosphere, whereas CH4 clouds, which ordinarily form in the troposphere, form in a more dynamically unstable region, where convective cloud systems tend to occur. In the unusual situation where Titan's tropopause cools significantly from the HASI 70.5K temperature minimum, CH4 should condense in Titan's lower stratosphere, just like the aforementioned nitrile clouds, although

  3. Stiffness Control of Variable Serial Elastic Actuators: Energy Efficiency through Exploitation of Natural Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Beckerle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Variable elastic actuators are very promising for applications in physical human–robot interaction. Besides enabling human safety, such actuators can support energy efficiency, especially if the natural behavior of the system is exploited. In this paper, the power and energy consumption of variable stiffness actuators with serial elasticity is investigated analytically and experimentally. Besides the fundamental mechanics, the influence of friction and electrical losses is discussed. A simple but effective stiffness control method is used to exploit the corresponding knowledge of natural dynamics by tuning the system to antiresonance operation. Despite nonlinear friction effects and additional electrical dynamics, the consideration of the ideal mechanical dynamics is completely sufficient for stiffness control. Simulations and experiments show that this yields a distinct reduction in power and energy consumption, which underlines the suitability of the control strategy.

  4. An ultrahot gas-giant exoplanet with a stratosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Thomas M; Sing, David K; Kataria, Tiffany; Goyal, Jayesh; Nikolov, Nikolay; Wakeford, Hannah R; Deming, Drake; Marley, Mark S; Amundsen, David S; Ballester, Gilda E; Barstow, Joanna K; Ben-Jaffel, Lotfi; Bourrier, Vincent; Buchhave, Lars A; Cohen, Ofer; Ehrenreich, David; García Muñoz, Antonio; Henry, Gregory W; Knutson, Heather; Lavvas, Panayotis; Etangs, Alain Lecavelier des; Lewis, Nikole K; López-Morales, Mercedes; Mandell, Avi M; Sanz-Forcada, Jorge; Tremblin, Pascal; Lupu, Roxana

    2017-08-02

    Infrared radiation emitted from a planet contains information about the chemical composition and vertical temperature profile of its atmosphere. If upper layers are cooler than lower layers, molecular gases will produce absorption features in the planetary thermal spectrum. Conversely, if there is a stratosphere-where temperature increases with altitude-these molecular features will be observed in emission. It has been suggested that stratospheres could form in highly irradiated exoplanets, but the extent to which this occurs is unresolved both theoretically and observationally. A previous claim for the presence of a stratosphere remains open to question, owing to the challenges posed by the highly variable host star and the low spectral resolution of the measurements. Here we report a near-infrared thermal spectrum for the ultrahot gas giant WASP-121b, which has an equilibrium temperature of approximately 2,500 kelvin. Water is resolved in emission, providing a detection of an exoplanet stratosphere at 5σ confidence. These observations imply that a substantial fraction of incident stellar radiation is retained at high altitudes in the atmosphere, possibly by absorbing chemical species such as gaseous vanadium oxide and titanium oxide.

  5. Can we identify non-stationary dynamics of trial-to-trial variability?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emili Balaguer-Ballester

    Full Text Available Identifying sources of the apparent variability in non-stationary scenarios is a fundamental problem in many biological data analysis settings. For instance, neurophysiological responses to the same task often vary from each repetition of the same experiment (trial to the next. The origin and functional role of this observed variability is one of the fundamental questions in neuroscience. The nature of such trial-to-trial dynamics however remains largely elusive to current data analysis approaches. A range of strategies have been proposed in modalities such as electro-encephalography but gaining a fundamental insight into latent sources of trial-to-trial variability in neural recordings is still a major challenge. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept study to the analysis of trial-to-trial variability dynamics founded on non-autonomous dynamical systems. At this initial stage, we evaluate the capacity of a simple statistic based on the behaviour of trajectories in classification settings, the trajectory coherence, in order to identify trial-to-trial dynamics. First, we derive the conditions leading to observable changes in datasets generated by a compact dynamical system (the Duffing equation. This canonical system plays the role of a ubiquitous model of non-stationary supervised classification problems. Second, we estimate the coherence of class-trajectories in empirically reconstructed space of system states. We show how this analysis can discern variations attributable to non-autonomous deterministic processes from stochastic fluctuations. The analyses are benchmarked using simulated and two different real datasets which have been shown to exhibit attractor dynamics. As an illustrative example, we focused on the analysis of the rat's frontal cortex ensemble dynamics during a decision-making task. Results suggest that, in line with recent hypotheses, rather than internal noise, it is the deterministic trend which most likely underlies

  6. Dynamical and biogeochemical control on the decadal variability of ocean carbon fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Séférian

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Several recent observation-based studies suggest that ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake has slowed down due to the impact of anthropogenic forced climate change. However, it remains unclear whether detected changes over the recent time period can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change or rather to natural climate variability (internal plus naturally forced variability alone. One large uncertainty arises from the lack of knowledge on ocean carbon flux natural variability at the decadal time scales. To gain more insights into decadal time scales, we have examined the internal variability of ocean carbon fluxes in a 1000 yr long preindustrial simulation performed with the Earth System Model IPSL-CM5A-LR. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon fluxes exhibit low-frequency oscillations that emerge from their year-to-year variability in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. In our model, a 20 yr mode of variability in the North Atlantic air-sea carbon flux is driven by sea surface temperature variability and accounts for ~40% of the interannual regional variance. The North Pacific and the Southern Ocean carbon fluxes are also characterised by decadal to multi-decadal modes of variability (10 to 50 yr that account for 20–40% of the interannual regional variance. These modes are driven by the vertical supply of dissolved inorganic carbon through the variability of Ekman-induced upwelling and deep-mixing events. Differences in drivers of regional modes of variability stem from the coupling between ocean dynamics variability and the ocean carbon distribution, which is set by large-scale secular ocean circulation.

  7. Variable Displacement Control of the Concrete Pumping System Based on Dynamic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Min

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems of cylinder piston striking cylinder and the hydraulic shocking of the main pump, and causing energy waste problem, the method of variable displacement control of piston stroke was proposed. In order to achieve effective control of the piston stroke, variable displacement control model was established under the physical constraint condition of non-collision between piston and cylinder. And the control process was realized by Dynamic Programming(DP, the simulation and test results show that piston of concrete pumping system don’t strike cylinder and reduce the hydraulic shock of the main pump outlet, meanwhile improve the response speed of the cylinder and achieve energy-saving purposes under varying loads. This control model built in the integration design space of structure variable and control variable is of guiding significance for solving open-loop system’s engineering problems.

  8. Halo control, beam matching, and new dynamical variables for beam distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lysenko, W.; Parsa, Z.

    1997-01-01

    We present the status of our work on physics models that relate release to the understanding and control of beam halo, which is a cause of particle loss in high power ion linear accelerators. We can minimize these particle losses, even in the presence of nonlinearities, by ensuring the beam is matched to high order. Our goal is to determine new dynamical variables that enable us to more directly solve for the evolution of the halo. We considered moments and several new variables, using a Lie-Poisson formulation whenever possible. Using symbolic techniques, we computed high-order matches and mode invariants (analogs of moment invariants) in the new variables. A promising new development developments is that of the variables we call weighted moments, which allow us to compute high-order nonlinear effects (like halos) while making use of well-developed existing results and computational techniques developed for studying first order effects. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  9. Dynamic Variables Fail to Predict Fluid Responsiveness in an Animal Model With Pericardial Effusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broch, Ole; Renner, Jochen; Meybohm, Patrick; Albrecht, Martin; Höcker, Jan; Haneya, Assad; Steinfath, Markus; Bein, Berthold; Gruenewald, Matthias

    2016-10-01

    The reliability of dynamic and volumetric variables of fluid responsiveness in the presence of pericardial effusion is still elusive. The aim of the present study was to investigate their predictive power in a porcine model with hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion. A single-center animal investigation. Twelve German domestic pigs. Pigs were studied before and during pericardial effusion. Instrumentation included a pulmonary artery catheter and a transpulmonary thermodilution catheter in the femoral artery. Hemodynamic variables like cardiac output (COPAC) and stroke volume (SVPAC) derived from pulmonary artery catheter, global end-diastolic volume (GEDV), stroke volume variation (SVV), and pulse-pressure variation (PPV) were obtained. At baseline, SVV, PPV, GEDV, COPAC, and SVPAC reliably predicted fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.81 [p = 0.02], 0.82 [p = 0.02], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.74 [p = 0.07], 0.82 [p = 0.02]). After establishment of pericardial effusion the predictive power of dynamic variables was impaired and only COPAC and SVPAC and GEDV allowed significant prediction of fluid responsiveness (area under the curve 0.77 [p = 0.04], 0.76 [p = 0.05], 0.83 [p = 0.01]) with clinically relevant changes in threshold values. In this porcine model, hemodynamic relevant pericardial effusion abolished the ability of dynamic variables to predict fluid responsiveness. COPAC, SVPAC, and GEDV enabled prediction, but their threshold values were significantly changed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Stride dynamics, gait variability and prospective falls risk in active community dwelling older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Kade; Hill, Keith; Lythgo, Noel

    2011-02-01

    Measures of walking instability such as stride dynamics and gait variability have been shown to identify future fallers in older adult populations with gait limitations or mobility disorders. This study investigated whether measures of walking instability can predict future fallers (over a prospective 12 month period) in a group of healthy and active older women. Ninety-seven healthy active women aged between 55 and 90 years walked for 7 min around a continuous walking circuit. Gait data recorded by a GAITRite(®) walkway and foot-mounted accelerometers were used to calculate measures of stride dynamics and gait variability. The participant's physical function and balance were assessed. Fall incidence was monitored over the following 12 months. Inter-limb differences (p≤0.04) in stride dynamics were found for fallers (one or more falls) aged over 70 years, and multiple fallers (two or more falls) aged over 55 years, but not in non-fallers or a combined group of single and non-fallers. No group differences were found in the measures of physical function, balance or gait, including variability. Additionally, no gait variable predicted falls. Reduced coordination of inter-limb dynamics was found in active healthy older fallers and multiple fallers despite no difference in other measures of intrinsic falls risk. Evaluating inter-limb dynamics may be a clinically sensitive technique to detect early gait instability and falls risk in high functioning older adults, prior to change in other measures of physical function, balance and gait. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. A Variable Interval Rescheduling Strategy for Dynamic Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem by Improved Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In real-world manufacturing systems, production scheduling systems are often implemented under random or dynamic events like machine failure, unexpected processing times, stochastic arrival of the urgent orders, cancellation of the orders, and so on. These dynamic events will lead the initial scheduling scheme to be nonoptimal and/or infeasible. Hence, appropriate dynamic rescheduling approaches are needed to overcome the dynamic events. In this paper, we propose a dynamic rescheduling method based on variable interval rescheduling strategy (VIRS to deal with the dynamic flexible job shop scheduling problem considering machine failure, urgent job arrival, and job damage as disruptions. On the other hand, an improved genetic algorithm (GA is proposed for minimizing makespan. In our improved GA, a mix of random initialization population by combining initialization machine and initialization operation with random initialization is designed for generating high-quality initial population. In addition, the elitist strategy (ES and improved population diversity strategy (IPDS are used to avoid falling into the local optimal solution. Experimental results for static and several dynamic events in the FJSP show that our method is feasible and effective.

  12. Laboratory chemistry and stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario J.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented from laboratory experiments on the chemistry of ice particles to study the role of HCl and ClONO2 from CFCs in stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica. It is found that gaseous HCl is scavenged with high efficiency by the ice and the gas phase chlorine nitrate may react with the HCL-containing ice to produce Cl2. Also, consideration is given ot the behavior of solid nitric acid trihydrate and sulfuric acid aerosols.

  13. An agent-based model of cellular dynamics and circadian variability in human endotoxemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available As cellular variability and circadian rhythmicity play critical roles in immune and inflammatory responses, we present in this study an agent-based model of human endotoxemia to examine the interplay between circadian controls, cellular variability and stochastic dynamics of inflammatory cytokines. The model is qualitatively validated by its ability to reproduce circadian dynamics of inflammatory mediators and critical inflammatory responses after endotoxin administration in vivo. Novel computational concepts are proposed to characterize the cellular variability and synchronization of inflammatory cytokines in a population of heterogeneous leukocytes. Our results suggest that there is a decrease in cell-to-cell variability of inflammatory cytokines while their synchronization is increased after endotoxin challenge. Model parameters that are responsible for IκB production stimulated by NFκB activation and for the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines have large impacts on system behaviors. Additionally, examining time-dependent systemic responses revealed that the system is least vulnerable to endotoxin in the early morning and most vulnerable around midnight. Although much remains to be explored, proposed computational concepts and the model we have pioneered will provide important insights for future investigations and extensions, especially for single-cell studies to discover how cellular variability contributes to clinical implications.

  14. A refined method for calculating equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald; Ostermöller, Jennifer; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dhomse, Sandip; Jöckel, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    Chlorine and bromine atoms lead to catalytic depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Therefore the use and production of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) containing chlorine and bromine is regulated by the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer. Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) has been adopted as an appropriate metric to describe the combined effects of chlorine and bromine released from halocarbons on stratospheric ozone. Here we revisit the concept of calculating EESC. We derive a refined formulation of EESC based on an advanced concept of ODS propagation into the stratosphere and reactive halogen release. A new transit time distribution is introduced in which the age spectrum for an inert tracer is weighted with the release function for inorganic halogen from the source gases. This distribution is termed the release time distribution. We show that a much better agreement with inorganic halogen loading from the chemistry transport model TOMCAT is achieved compared with using the current formulation. The refined formulation shows EESC levels in the year 1980 for the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, which are significantly lower than previously calculated. The year 1980 is commonly used as a benchmark to which EESC must return in order to reach significant progress towards halogen and ozone recovery. Assuming that - under otherwise unchanged conditions - the EESC value must return to the same level in order for ozone to fully recover, we show that it will take more than 10 years longer than estimated in this region of the stratosphere with the current method for calculation of EESC. We also present a range of sensitivity studies to investigate the effect of changes and uncertainties in the fractional release factors and in the assumptions on the shape of the release time distributions. We further discuss the value of EESC as a proxy for future evolution of inorganic halogen loading under changing atmospheric dynamics using simulations from

  15. Capturing the dynamics of response variability in the brain in ADHD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janna van Belle

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available ADHD is characterized by increased intra-individual variability in response times during the performance of cognitive tasks. However, little is known about developmental changes in intra-individual variability, and how these changes relate to cognitive performance. Twenty subjects with ADHD aged 7–24 years and 20 age-matched, typically developing controls participated in an fMRI-scan while they performed a go-no-go task. We fit an ex-Gaussian distribution on the response distribution to objectively separate extremely slow responses, related to lapses of attention, from variability on fast responses. We assessed developmental changes in these intra-individual variability measures, and investigated their relation to no-go performance. Results show that the ex-Gaussian measures were better predictors of no-go performance than traditional measures of reaction time. Furthermore, we found between-group differences in the change in ex-Gaussian parameters with age, and their relation to task performance: subjects with ADHD showed age-related decreases in their variability on fast responses (sigma, but not in lapses of attention (tau, whereas control subjects showed a decrease in both measures of variability. For control subjects, but not subjects with ADHD, this age-related reduction in variability was predictive of task performance. This group difference was reflected in neural activation: for typically developing subjects, the age-related decrease in intra-individual variability on fast responses (sigma predicted activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus (dACG, whereas for subjects with ADHD, activity in this region was related to improved no-go performance with age, but not to intra-individual variability. These data show that using more sophisticated measures of intra-individual variability allows the capturing of the dynamics of task performance and associated neural changes not permitted by more traditional measures.

  16. Suppression of chaos at slow variables by rapidly mixing fast dynamics through linear energy-preserving coupling

    OpenAIRE

    Abramov, Rafail V.

    2011-01-01

    Chaotic multiscale dynamical systems are common in many areas of science, one of the examples being the interaction of the low-frequency dynamics in the atmosphere with the fast turbulent weather dynamics. One of the key questions about chaotic multiscale systems is how the fast dynamics affects chaos at the slow variables, and, therefore, impacts uncertainty and predictability of the slow dynamics. Here we demonstrate that the linear slow-fast coupling with the total energy conservation prop...

  17. Brief communication "Stratospheric winds, transport barriers and the 2011 Arctic ozone hole"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Olascoaga

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic stratosphere throughout the late winter and early spring of 2011 was characterized by an unusually severe ozone loss, resulting in what has been described as an ozone hole. The 2011 ozone loss was made possible by unusually cold temperatures throughout the Arctic stratosphere. Here we consider the issue of what constitutes suitable environmental conditions for the formation and maintenance of a polar ozone hole. Our discussion focuses on the importance of the stratospheric wind field and, in particular, the importance of a high latitude zonal jet, which serves as a meridional transport barrier both prior to ozone hole formation and during the ozone hole maintenance phase. It is argued that stratospheric conditions in the boreal winter/spring of 2011 were highly unusual inasmuch as in that year Antarctic-like Lagrangian dynamics led to the formation of a boreal ozone hole.

  18. Tropical stratospheric water vapor measured by the microwave limb sounder (MLS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, E. S.; Harwood, R. S.; Mote, P. W.; Peckham, G. E.; Suttie, R. A.; Lahoz, W. A.; O'Neill, A.; Froidevaux, L.; Jarnot, R. F.; Read, W. G.

    1995-01-01

    The lower stratospheric variability of equatorial water vapor, measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), follows an annual cycle modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation. At levels higher in the stratosphere, water vapor measurements exhibit a semi-annual oscillatory signal with the largest amplitudes at 2.2 and 1hPa. Zonal-mean cross sections of MLS water vapor are consistent with previous satellite measurements from the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) and the stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 (SAGE 2) instruments in that they show water vapor increasing upwards and the polewards from a well defined minimum in the tropics. The minimum values vary in height between the retrieved 46 and 22hPa pressure levels.

  19. A Method for Analyzing the Dynamic Response of a Structural System with Variable Mass, Damping and Stiffness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike D.R. Zhang

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a method for analyzing the dynamic response of a structural system with variable mass, damping and stiffness is first presented. The dynamic equations of the structural system with variable mass and stiffness are derived according to the whole working process of a bridge bucket unloader. At the end of the paper, an engineering numerical example is given.

  20. A variational conformational dynamics approach to the selection of collective variables in metadynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarty, James; Parrinello, Michele

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we combine two powerful computational techniques, well-tempered metadynamics and time-lagged independent component analysis. The aim is to develop a new tool for studying rare events and exploring complex free energy landscapes. Metadynamics is a well-established and widely used enhanced sampling method whose efficiency depends on an appropriate choice of collective variables. Often the initial choice is not optimal leading to slow convergence. However by analyzing the dynamics generated in one such run with a time-lagged independent component analysis and the techniques recently developed in the area of conformational dynamics, we obtain much more efficient collective variables that are also better capable of illuminating the physics of the system. We demonstrate the power of this approach in two paradigmatic examples.

  1. Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

    2018-05-01

    A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

  2. A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

  3. Climate Variability Structures Plant Community Dynamics in Mediterranean Restored and Reference Tidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan E. Chapple

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In Mediterranean regions and other areas with variable climates, interannual weather variability may impact ecosystem dynamics, and by extension ecological restoration projects. Conditions at reference sites, which are often used to evaluate restoration projects, may also be influenced by weather variability, confounding interpretations of restoration outcomes. To better understand the influence of weather variability on plant community dynamics, we explore change in a vegetation dataset collected between 1990 and 2005 at a historic tidal wetland reference site and a nearby tidal wetland restoration project initiated in 1976 in California’s San Francisco (SF Bay. To determine the factors influencing reference and restoration trajectories, we examine changes in plant community identity in relation to annual salinity levels in the SF Bay, annual rainfall, and tidal channel structure. Over the entire study period, both sites experienced significant directional change away from the 1990 community. Community change was accelerated following low salinity conditions that resulted from strong El Niño events in 1994–1995 and 1997–1998. Overall rates of change were greater at the restoration site and driven by a combination of dominant and sub-dominant species, whereas change at the reference site was driven by sub-dominant species. Sub-dominant species first appeared at the restoration site in 1996 and incrementally increased during each subsequent year, whereas sub-dominant species cover at the reference site peaked in 1999 and subsequently declined. Our results show that frequent, long-term monitoring is needed to adequately capture plant community dynamics in variable Mediterranean ecosystems and demonstrate the need for expanding restoration monitoring and timing restoration actions to match weather conditions.

  4. Contribution of LFP dynamics to single-neuron spiking variability in motor cortex during movement execution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule, Michael E.; Vargas-Irwin, Carlos; Donoghue, John P.; Truccolo, Wilson

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the sources of variability in single-neuron spiking responses is an important open problem for the theory of neural coding. This variability is thought to result primarily from spontaneous collective dynamics in neuronal networks. Here, we investigate how well collective dynamics reflected in motor cortex local field potentials (LFPs) can account for spiking variability during motor behavior. Neural activity was recorded via microelectrode arrays implanted in ventral and dorsal premotor and primary motor cortices of non-human primates performing naturalistic 3-D reaching and grasping actions. Point process models were used to quantify how well LFP features accounted for spiking variability not explained by the measured 3-D reach and grasp kinematics. LFP features included the instantaneous magnitude, phase and analytic-signal components of narrow band-pass filtered (δ,θ,α,β) LFPs, and analytic signal and amplitude envelope features in higher-frequency bands. Multiband LFP features predicted single-neuron spiking (1ms resolution) with substantial accuracy as assessed via ROC analysis. Notably, however, models including both LFP and kinematics features displayed marginal improvement over kinematics-only models. Furthermore, the small predictive information added by LFP features to kinematic models was redundant to information available in fast-timescale (spiking history. Overall, information in multiband LFP features, although predictive of single-neuron spiking during movement execution, was redundant to information available in movement parameters and spiking history. Our findings suggest that, during movement execution, collective dynamics reflected in motor cortex LFPs primarily relate to sensorimotor processes directly controlling movement output, adding little explanatory power to variability not accounted by movement parameters. PMID:26157365

  5. Influence of forced respiration on nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1997-01-01

    Although it is doubtful whether the normal sinus rhythm can be described as low-dimensional chaos, there is evidence for inherent nonlinear dynamics and determinism in time series of consecutive R-R intervals. However, the physiological origin for these nonlinearities is unknown. The aim...... with a metronome set to 12 min(-1). Nonlinear dynamics were measured as the correlation dimension and the nonlinear prediction error. Complexity expressed as correlation dimension was unchanged from normal respiration, 9.1 +/- 0.5, compared with forced respiration, 9.3 +/- 0.6. Also, nonlinear determinism...... expressed as the nonlinear prediction error did not differ between spontaneous respiration, 32.3 +/- 3.4 ms, and forced respiration, 31.9 +/- 5.7. It is concluded that the origin of the nonlinear dynamics in heart rate variability is not a nonlinear input from the respiration into the cardiovascular...

  6. How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

  7. Molecular beam studies of stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Teresa Anne

    1998-12-01

    Photochemistry of chlorine oxide containing species plays a major role in stratospheric ozone depletion. This thesis discusses two photodissociation studies of the key molecules ClONO2 and ClOOCl which were previously thought to only produce Cl-atom (ozone depleting) products at wavelengths relevant to the stratosphere. The development of a molecular beam source of ClOOCl and the photodissociation dynamics of the model system Cl2O are also discussed. In the first chapter, the photochemistry of ClONO2 is examined at 308 nm using the technique of photofragment translational spectroscopy. Two primary decomposition pathways, leading to Cl + NO3 and ClO + NO2, were observed, with a lower limit of 0.33 for the relative yield of ClO. The angular distributions for both channels were anisotropic, indicating that the dissociation occurs within a rotational period. Chapter two revisits the photodissociation dynamics of Cl2O at 248 and 308 nm, on which we had previously reported preliminary findings. At 248 nm, three distinct dissociation pathways leading to Cl + ClO products were resolved. At 308 nm, the angular distribution was slightly more isotropic that previously reported, leaving open the possibility that Cl2O excited at 308 nm lives longer than a rotational period. Chapter three describes the development and optimization of a molecular beam source of ClOOCl. We utilized pulsed laser photolysis of ClA2O to generate ClO radicals, and cooled the cell to promote three body recombination to form ClOOCl. The principal components in the beam were Cl2, Cl2O, and ClOOCl. In the fourth chapter, the photodissociation dynamics of ClOOCl are investigated at 248 and 308 nm. We observed multiple dissociation pathways which produced ClO + ClO and 2Cl + O2 products. The relative Cl:ClO product yields are 1.0:0.13 and 1.0:0.20 for ClOOCl photolysis at 248 and 308 nm, respectively. The upper limit for the relative yield of the ClO + ClO channel was 0.19 at 248 nm and 0.31 at 308 nm

  8. Analogy between electromagnetic potentials and wave-like dynamic variables with connections to quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chen

    2018-05-01

    The transitions from classical theories to quantum theories have attracted many interests. This paper demonstrates the analogy between the electromagnetic potentials and wave-like dynamic variables with their connections to quantum theory for audiences at advanced undergraduate level and above. In the first part, the counterpart relations in the classical electrodynamics (e.g. gauge transform and Lorenz condition) and classical mechanics (e.g. Legendre transform and free particle condition) are presented. These relations lead to similar governing equations of the field variables and dynamic variables. The Lorenz gauge, scalar potential and vector potential manifest a one-to-one similarity to the action, Hamiltonian and momentum, respectively. In the second part, the connections between the classical pictures of electromagnetic field and particle to quantum picture are presented. By characterising the states of electromagnetic field and particle via their (corresponding) variables, their evolution pictures manifest the same algebraic structure (isomorphic). Subsequently, pictures of the electromagnetic field and particle are compared to the quantum picture and their interconnections are given. A brief summary of the obtained results are presented at the end of the paper.

  9. Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

  10. Molecular dynamics based enhanced sampling of collective variables with very large time steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pei-Yang; Tuckerman, Mark E.

    2018-01-01

    Enhanced sampling techniques that target a set of collective variables and that use molecular dynamics as the driving engine have seen widespread application in the computational molecular sciences as a means to explore the free-energy landscapes of complex systems. The use of molecular dynamics as the fundamental driver of the sampling requires the introduction of a time step whose magnitude is limited by the fastest motions in a system. While standard multiple time-stepping methods allow larger time steps to be employed for the slower and computationally more expensive forces, the maximum achievable increase in time step is limited by resonance phenomena, which inextricably couple fast and slow motions. Recently, we introduced deterministic and stochastic resonance-free multiple time step algorithms for molecular dynamics that solve this resonance problem and allow ten- to twenty-fold gains in the large time step compared to standard multiple time step algorithms [P. Minary et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 150201 (2004); B. Leimkuhler et al., Mol. Phys. 111, 3579-3594 (2013)]. These methods are based on the imposition of isokinetic constraints that couple the physical system to Nosé-Hoover chains or Nosé-Hoover Langevin schemes. In this paper, we show how to adapt these methods for collective variable-based enhanced sampling techniques, specifically adiabatic free-energy dynamics/temperature-accelerated molecular dynamics, unified free-energy dynamics, and by extension, metadynamics, thus allowing simulations employing these methods to employ similarly very large time steps. The combination of resonance-free multiple time step integrators with free-energy-based enhanced sampling significantly improves the efficiency of conformational exploration.

  11. Suppression of chaos at slow variables by rapidly mixing fast dynamics through linear energy-preserving coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramov, R. V.

    2011-12-01

    Chaotic multiscale dynamical systems are common in many areas of science, one of the examples being the interaction of the low-frequency dynamics in the atmosphere with the fast turbulent weather dynamics. One of the key questions about chaotic multiscale systems is how the fast dynamics affects chaos at the slow variables, and, therefore, impacts uncertainty and predictability of the slow dynamics. Here we demonstrate that the linear slow-fast coupling with the total energy conservation property promotes the suppression of chaos at the slow variables through the rapid mixing at the fast variables, both theoretically and through numerical simulations. A suitable mathematical framework is developed, connecting the slow dynamics on the tangent subspaces to the infinite-time linear response of the mean state to a constant external forcing at the fast variables. Additionally, it is shown that the uncoupled dynamics for the slow variables may remain chaotic while the complete multiscale system loses chaos and becomes completely predictable at the slow variables through increasing chaos and turbulence at the fast variables. This result contradicts the common sense intuition, where, naturally, one would think that coupling a slow weakly chaotic system with another much faster and much stronger chaotic system would result in general increase of chaos at the slow variables.

  12. The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Thornton

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB, the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE, the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II. The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in

  13. The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

    2009-02-01

    This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison

  14. Extraction of wind and temperature information from hybrid 4D-Var assimilation of stratospheric ozone using NAVGEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Douglas R.; Hoppel, Karl W.; Kuhl, David D.

    2018-03-01

    assimilated in addition to radiance observations, wind and temperature error decreases of up to ˜ 3 m s-1 and ˜ 1 K occur in the tropical upper stratosphere. Assimilation of noisy global ozone (2 % errors applied) results in error reductions of ˜ 1 m s-1 and ˜ 0.5 K in the tropics and slightly increased temperature errors in the Northern Hemisphere polar region. Reduction of the ozone sampling frequency also reduces the benefit of ozone throughout the stratosphere, with noisy polar-orbiting data having only minor impacts on wind and temperature when assimilated with radiances. An examination of ensemble cross-correlations between ozone and other variables shows that a single ozone observation behaves like a potential vorticity (PV) charge, or a monopole of PV, with rotation about a vertical axis and vertically oriented temperature dipole. Further understanding of this relationship may help in designing observation systems that would optimize the impact of ozone on the dynamics.

  15. Extraction of wind and temperature information from hybrid 4D-Var assimilation of stratospheric ozone using NAVGEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Allen

    2018-03-01

    perfect global ozone is assimilated in addition to radiance observations, wind and temperature error decreases of up to ∼ 3 m s−1 and ∼ 1 K occur in the tropical upper stratosphere. Assimilation of noisy global ozone (2 % errors applied results in error reductions of ∼ 1 m s−1 and ∼ 0.5 K in the tropics and slightly increased temperature errors in the Northern Hemisphere polar region. Reduction of the ozone sampling frequency also reduces the benefit of ozone throughout the stratosphere, with noisy polar-orbiting data having only minor impacts on wind and temperature when assimilated with radiances. An examination of ensemble cross-correlations between ozone and other variables shows that a single ozone observation behaves like a potential vorticity (PV charge, or a monopole of PV, with rotation about a vertical axis and vertically oriented temperature dipole. Further understanding of this relationship may help in designing observation systems that would optimize the impact of ozone on the dynamics.

  16. Capturing Dynamics of Biased Attention: Are New Attention Variability Measures the Way Forward?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Wil Kruijt

    Full Text Available New indices, calculated on data from the widely used Dot Probe Task, were recently proposed to capture variability in biased attention allocation. We observed that it remains unclear which data pattern is meant to be indicative of dynamic bias and thus to be captured by these indices. Moreover, we hypothesized that the new indices are sensitive to SD differences at the response time (RT level in the absence of bias.Randomly generated datasets were analyzed to assess properties of the Attention Bias Variability (ABV and Trial Level Bias Score (TL-BS indices. Sensitivity to creating differences in 1 RT standard deviation, 2 mean RT, and 3 bias magnitude were assessed. In addition, two possible definitions of dynamic attention bias were explored by creating differences in 4 frequency of bias switching, and 5 bias magnitude in the presence of constant switching.ABV and TL-BS indices were found highly sensitive to increasing SD at the response time level, insensitive to increasing bias, linearly sensitive to increasing bias magnitude in the presence of bias switches, and non-linearly sensitive to increasing the frequency of bias switches. The ABV index was also found responsive to increasing mean response times in the absence of bias.Recently proposed DPT derived variability indices cannot uncouple measurement error from bias variability. Significant group differences may be observed even if there is no bias present in any individual dataset. This renders the new indices in their current form unfit for empirical purposes. Our discussion focuses on fostering debate and ideas for new research to validate the potentially very important notion of biased attention being dynamic.

  17. Gradual plasticity alters population dynamics in variable environments: thermal acclimation in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhartdii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Colin T; Fey, Samuel B; Arellano, Aldo A; Vasseur, David A

    2018-01-10

    Environmental variability is ubiquitous, but its effects on populations are not fully understood or predictable. Recent attention has focused on how rapid evolution can impact ecological dynamics via adaptive trait change. However, the impact of trait change arising from plastic responses has received less attention, and is often assumed to optimize performance and unfold on a separate, faster timescale than ecological dynamics. Challenging these assumptions, we propose that gradual plasticity is important for ecological dynamics, and present a study of the plastic responses of the freshwater green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as it acclimates to temperature changes. First, we show that C. reinhardtii 's gradual acclimation responses can both enhance and suppress its performance after a perturbation, depending on its prior thermal history. Second, we demonstrate that where conventional approaches fail to predict the population dynamics of C. reinhardtii exposed to temperature fluctuations, a new model of gradual acclimation succeeds. Finally, using high-resolution data, we show that phytoplankton in lake ecosystems can experience thermal variation sufficient to make acclimation relevant. These results challenge prevailing assumptions about plasticity's interactions with ecological dynamics. Amidst the current emphasis on rapid evolution, it is critical that we also develop predictive methods accounting for plasticity. © 2018 The Author(s).

  18. Local dynamic stability and variability of gait are associated with fall history in elderly subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toebes, Marcel J P; Hoozemans, Marco J M; Furrer, Regula; Dekker, Joost; van Dieën, Jaap H

    2012-07-01

    Gait parameters that can be measured with simple instrumentation may hold promise for identifying individuals at risk of falling. Increased variability of gait is associated with increased risk of falling, but research on additional parameters indicates that local dynamic stability (LDS) of gait may also be a predictor of fall risk. The objective of the present study was to assess the association between gait variability, LDS of gait and fall history in a large sample of elderly subjects. Subjects were recruited and tested at a large national fair. One hundred and thirty four elderly, aged 50-75, who were able to walk without aids on a treadmill, agreed to participate. After subjects walked on a treadmill, LDS (higher values indicate more instability) and variability parameters were calculated from accelerometer signals (trunk worn). Fall history was obtained by self-report of falls in the past 12 months. Gait variability and short-term LDS were, individually and combined, positively associated with fall history. In conclusion, both increased gait variability and increased short-term LDS are possible risk factors for falling in the elderly. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Stratospheric HTO perturbations 1980-1983

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, A. S.

    1985-02-01

    Three perturbations of the stratospheric tritiated water burden have occurred. An atmospheric nuclear detonation in 1980 injected about 2.1 MCi. The massive eruptions of the volcano El Chichon may have contributed to a doubling of the removal rate in 1982. An unusually large wintertime exchange with the upper stratosphere may have occurred between 1982 and 1983.

  20. Nonlinear Dynamical Modes as a Basis for Short-Term Forecast of Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Seleznev, A.; Loskutov, E.

    2017-12-01

    We study abilities of data-driven stochastic models constructed by nonlinear dynamical decomposition of spatially distributed data to quantitative (short-term) forecast of climate characteristics. We compare two data processing techniques: (i) widely used empirical orthogonal function approach, and (ii) nonlinear dynamical modes (NDMs) framework [1,2]. We also make comparison of two kinds of the prognostic models: (i) traditional autoregression (linear) model and (ii) model in the form of random ("stochastic") nonlinear dynamical system [3]. We apply all combinations of the above-mentioned data mining techniques and kinds of models to short-term forecasts of climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) data. We use NOAA_ERSST_V4 dataset (monthly SST with space resolution 20 × 20) covering the tropical belt and starting from the year 1960. We demonstrate that NDM-based nonlinear model shows better prediction skill versus EOF-based linear and nonlinear models. Finally we discuss capability of NDM-based nonlinear model for long-term (decadal) prediction of climate variability. [1] D. Mukhin, A. Gavrilov, E. Loskutov , A.Feigin, J.Kurths, 2015: Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability, Scientific Reports, rep. 5, 15510; doi: 10.1038/srep15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J., 2016: Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. [3] Ya. Molkov, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, A. Feigin, 2012: Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.

  1. Stratospheric ozone reduction and its relation to natural and man made sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaksen, I S [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Geophysics

    1996-12-31

    Approximately 90 % of the total ozone mass is in the stratosphere (between approximately 12 and 50 km), the rest is in the troposphere (below 12 km). The global distribution of ozone in the stratosphere and its variation over time have been studied extensively over several decades. These studies include observations by ground based instruments (e.g. Dobson instruments), instruments on airborne platforms (e.g. ozone sondes) and on satellites, and model studies which simulate the chemical and dynamical behaviour of the stratosphere. These studies have given good information about the processes which determine the ozone distribution, and how man made emissions affect the distribution. Observations have revealed that there are large year to year variations in stratospheric ozone above a particular location. These variations are difficult to predict as they are connected to irregular weather patterns. However, the observations have shown that there has been a long term decrease in stratospheric ozone on a global scale during the last two decades. The decrease has been most pronounced during the last five to six years and is seen both in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. The strong decrease in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic continent, which has been observed since the mid 80s, and which has reduced the total ozone column with more than 50 % compared with earlier observations, is proven to be a result of increased man made emissions of CFCs. There are also mounting evidences that Northern Hemispheric ozone reductions observed since 1980 are connected to man made emissions of CFCs

  2. Stratospheric ozone reduction and its relation to natural and man made sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaksen, I.S. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Geophysics

    1995-12-31

    Approximately 90 % of the total ozone mass is in the stratosphere (between approximately 12 and 50 km), the rest is in the troposphere (below 12 km). The global distribution of ozone in the stratosphere and its variation over time have been studied extensively over several decades. These studies include observations by ground based instruments (e.g. Dobson instruments), instruments on airborne platforms (e.g. ozone sondes) and on satellites, and model studies which simulate the chemical and dynamical behaviour of the stratosphere. These studies have given good information about the processes which determine the ozone distribution, and how man made emissions affect the distribution. Observations have revealed that there are large year to year variations in stratospheric ozone above a particular location. These variations are difficult to predict as they are connected to irregular weather patterns. However, the observations have shown that there has been a long term decrease in stratospheric ozone on a global scale during the last two decades. The decrease has been most pronounced during the last five to six years and is seen both in the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres. The strong decrease in stratospheric ozone over the Antarctic continent, which has been observed since the mid 80s, and which has reduced the total ozone column with more than 50 % compared with earlier observations, is proven to be a result of increased man made emissions of CFCs. There are also mounting evidences that Northern Hemispheric ozone reductions observed since 1980 are connected to man made emissions of CFCs

  3. Dynamic modeling of fixed-bed adsorption of flue gas using a variable mass transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jehun; Lee, Jae W.

    2016-01-01

    This study introduces a dynamic mass transfer model for the fixed-bed adsorption of a flue gas. The derivation of the variable mass transfer coefficient is based on pore diffusion theory and it is a function of effective porosity, temperature, and pressure as well as the adsorbate composition. Adsorption experiments were done at four different pressures (1.8, 5, 10 and 20 bars) and three different temperatures (30, 50 and 70 .deg. C) with zeolite 13X as the adsorbent. To explain the equilibrium adsorption capacity, the Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm model was adopted, and the parameters of the isotherm equation were fitted to the experimental data for a wide range of pressures and temperatures. Then, dynamic simulations were performed using the system equations for material and energy balance with the equilibrium adsorption isotherm data. The optimal mass transfer and heat transfer coefficients were determined after iterative calculations. As a result, the dynamic variable mass transfer model can estimate the adsorption rate for a wide range of concentrations and precisely simulate the fixed-bed adsorption process of a flue gas mixture of carbon dioxide and nitrogen.

  4. What Controls the Arctic Lower Stratosphere Temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period. We will further show that the recent cold years in the northern polar vortex are a result of this weakened wave driving of the stratosphere.

  5. What Does Eye-Blink Rate Variability Dynamics Tell Us About Cognitive Performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafal Paprocki

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive performance is defined as the ability to utilize knowledge, attention, memory, and working memory. In this study, we briefly discuss various markers that have been proposed to predict cognitive performance. Next, we develop a novel approach to characterize cognitive performance by analyzing eye-blink rate variability dynamics. Our findings are based on a sample of 24 subjects. The subjects were given a 5-min resting period prior to a 10-min IQ test. During both stages, eye blinks were recorded from Fp1 and Fp2 electrodes. We found that scale exponents estimated for blink rate variability during rest were correlated with subjects' performance on the subsequent IQ test. This surprising phenomenon could be explained by the person to person variation in concentrations of dopamine in PFC and accumulation of GABA in the visual cortex, as both neurotransmitters play a key role in cognitive processes and affect blinking. This study demonstrates the possibility that blink rate variability dynamics at rest carry information about cognitive performance and can be employed in the assessment of cognitive abilities without taking a test.

  6. Dynamics of Longitudinal Impact in the Variable Cross-Section Rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanov, R.; Romenskyi, D.; Tsarenko, S.

    2018-03-01

    Dynamics of longitudinal impact in rods of variable cross-section is considered. Rods of various configurations are used as elements of power pulse systems. There is no single method to the construction of a mathematical model of longitudinal impact on rods. The creation of a general method for constructing a mathematical model of longitudinal impact for rods of variable cross-section is the goal of the article. An elastic rod is considered with a cross-sectional area varying in powers of law from the longitudinal coordinate. The solution of the wave equation is obtained using the Fourier method. Special functions are introduced on the basis of recurrence relations for Bessel functions for solving boundary value problems. The expression for the square of the norm is obtained taking into account the orthogonality property of the eigen functions with weight. For example, the impact of an inelastic mass along the wide end of a conical rod is considered. The expressions for the displacements, forces and stresses of the rod sections are obtained for the cases of sudden velocity communication and the application of force. The proposed mathematical model makes it possible to carry out investigations of the stress-strain state in rods of variable and constant cross-section for various conditions of dynamic effects.

  7. SPICE Work Package 3: Modelling the Effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Simon

    2015-04-01

    This talk presents the results of the SPICE Work Package 3. There is an obvious need for methods to verify the accuracy of geoengineering given no observations of a geoengineering programme. Accordingly, model ability in reproducing the observed dynamical response to volcanic eruptions is discussed using analysis of CMIP5 data and different configurations of the HadGEM2 model. With the HadGEM2-L60 model shown to be substantially better in reproducing the observed dynamical response to volcanic eruptions, simulations of GeoMIP's G4 scenario are performed. Simulated impacts of geoengineering are described, and asymmetries between the immediate onset and immediate cessation ('termination') of geoengineering are analysed. Whilst a rapid large increase in stratospheric sulphate aerosols (such as from volcanic eruptions) can cause substantial damage, most volcanic eruptions in general are not catastrophic. One may therefore suspect that an 'equal but opposite' change in radiative forcing from termination may therefore not be catastrophic, if the climatic response is simulated to be symmetric. HadGEM2 simulations reveal a substantially more rapid change in variables such as near-surface temperature and precipitation following termination than the onset, indicating that termination may be substantially more damaging and even catastrophic. Some suggestions for hemispherically asymmetric geoengineering have been proposed as a way to reduce Northern Hemisphere sea ice, for example, with lesser impacts on the rest of the climate. However, HadGEM2 simulations are performed and observations analysed following volcanic eruptions. Both indicate substantial averse consequences from hemispherically asymmetric loading of stratospheric loading on precipitation in the Sahelian region - a vulnerable region where drought has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and created millions of refugees in the past.

  8. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

    1999-02-01

    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  9. Key aspects of stratospheric tracer modeling using assimilated winds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bregman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study describes key aspects of global chemistry-transport models and their impact on stratospheric tracer transport. We concentrate on global models that use assimilated winds from numerical weather predictions, but the results also apply to tracer transport in general circulation models. We examined grid resolution, numerical diffusion, air parcel dispersion, the wind or mass flux update frequency, and time interpolation. The evaluation is performed with assimilated meteorology from the "operational analyses or operational data" (OD from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF. We also show the effect of the mass flux update frequency using the ECMWF 40-year re-analyses (ERA40. We applied the three-dimensional chemistry-transport Tracer Model version 5 (TM5 and a trajectory model and performed several diagnoses focusing on different transport regimes. Covering different time and spatial scales, we examined (1 polar vortex dynamics during the Arctic winter, (2 the large-scale stratospheric meridional circulation, and (3 air parcel dispersion in the tropical lower stratosphere. Tracer distributions inside the Arctic polar vortex show considerably worse agreement with observations when the model grid resolution in the polar region is reduced to avoid numerical instability. The results are sensitive to the diffusivity of the advection. Nevertheless, the use of a computational cheaper but diffusive advection scheme is feasible for tracer transport when the horizontal grid resolution is equal or smaller than 1 degree. The use of time interpolated winds improves the tracer distributions, particularly in the middle and upper stratosphere. Considerable improvement is found both in the large-scale tracer distribution and in the polar regions when the update frequency of the assimilated winds is increased from 6 to 3 h. It considerably reduces the vertical dispersion of air parcels in the tropical lower stratosphere. Strong

  10. Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

    2005-02-01

    We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

  11. Small Scale Variability and the Problem of Data Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparling, L. C.; Avallone, L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Numerous measurements taken with a variety of airborne, balloon borne and ground based instruments over the past decade have revealed a complex multiscaled 3D structure in both chemical and dynamical fields in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. The variability occurs on scales that are well below the resolution of satellite measurements, leading to problems in measurement validation. We discuss some statistical ideas that can shed some light on the contribution of the natural variability to the inevitable differences in correlative measurements that are not strictly colocated, or that have different spatial resolution.

  12. State Anxiety and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability in Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitriev, Dimitriy A; Saperova, Elena V; Dimitriev, Aleksey D

    2016-01-01

    Clinical and experimental research studies have demonstrated that the emotional experience of anxiety impairs heart rate variability (HRV) in humans. The present study investigated whether changes in state anxiety (SA) can also modulate nonlinear dynamics of heart rate. A group of 96 students volunteered to participate in the study. For each student, two 5-minute recordings of beat intervals (RR) were performed: one during a rest period and one just before a university examination, which was assumed to be a real-life stressor. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed. The Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess the level of SA. Before adjusting for heart rate, a Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed significant decreases in Poincaré plot measures, entropy, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), and pointwise correlation dimension (PD2), and an increase in the short-term fractal-like scaling exponent of detrended fluctuation analysis (α1) during the exam session, compared with the rest period. A Pearson analysis indicated significant negative correlations between the dynamics of SA and Poincaré plot axes ratio (SD1/SD2), and between changes in SA and changes in entropy measures. A strong negative correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and LLE. A significant positive correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and α1. The decreases in Poincaré plot measures (SD1, complex correlation measure), entropy measures, and LLE were still significant after adjusting for heart rate. Corrected α1 was increased during the exam session. As before, the dynamics of adjusted LLE was significantly correlated with the dynamics of SA. The qualitative increase in SA during academic examination was related to the decrease in the complexity and size of the Poincaré plot through a reduction of both the interbeat interval and its variation.

  13. Livelihood profiling and sensitivity of livelihood strategies to land cover dynamics and agricultural variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berchoux, Tristan; Hutton, Craig; Watmough, Gary; Amoako Johnson, Fiifi; Atkinson, Peter

    2017-04-01

    With population increase and the urbanisation of rural areas, land scarcity is one of the biggest challenges now faced by communities in agrarian societies. At the household level, loss of land can be due to physical processes such as erosion, to social constraints such as inheritance, or to financial constraints such as loan reimbursement or the need of cash. For rural households, whose livelihoods are mainly based on agriculture, a decrease in the area of land cultivated can have significant consequences on their livelihood strategies, thus on their livelihood outcomes. However, it is still unclear how changes in cultivated area and agricultural productivity influence households' livelihood systems, including community capitals and households' livelihood strategies. This study aims to answer this gap by combining together earth observation from space, national census and participatory qualitative data into a community-wise analysis of the relationships between land cover dynamics, variability in agricultural production and livelihood activities. Its overarching aim is to investigate how land cover dynamics relates to changes in livelihood strategies and livelihood capitals. The study demonstrates that a change in land cover influences livelihood activities differently depending on the community capitals that households have access to. One significant aspect of integrating land dynamics with livelihood activities is its capacity to provide insights on the relationships between climate, agriculture, livelihood dynamics and rural development. More broadly, it gives policymakers new methods to characterise livelihood dynamics, thus to monitor some of the key Sustainable Development Goals: food security (SDG2), employment dynamics (SDG8), inequalities (SDG10) and sustainability of communities (SDG11).

  14. State Anxiety and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability in Students.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitriy A Dimitriev

    Full Text Available Clinical and experimental research studies have demonstrated that the emotional experience of anxiety impairs heart rate variability (HRV in humans. The present study investigated whether changes in state anxiety (SA can also modulate nonlinear dynamics of heart rate.A group of 96 students volunteered to participate in the study. For each student, two 5-minute recordings of beat intervals (RR were performed: one during a rest period and one just before a university examination, which was assumed to be a real-life stressor. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed. The Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess the level of SA.Before adjusting for heart rate, a Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed significant decreases in Poincaré plot measures, entropy, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE, and pointwise correlation dimension (PD2, and an increase in the short-term fractal-like scaling exponent of detrended fluctuation analysis (α1 during the exam session, compared with the rest period. A Pearson analysis indicated significant negative correlations between the dynamics of SA and Poincaré plot axes ratio (SD1/SD2, and between changes in SA and changes in entropy measures. A strong negative correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and LLE. A significant positive correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and α1. The decreases in Poincaré plot measures (SD1, complex correlation measure, entropy measures, and LLE were still significant after adjusting for heart rate. Corrected α1 was increased during the exam session. As before, the dynamics of adjusted LLE was significantly correlated with the dynamics of SA.The qualitative increase in SA during academic examination was related to the decrease in the complexity and size of the Poincaré plot through a reduction of both the interbeat interval and its variation.

  15. Studies on variable swirl intake system for DI diesel engine using computational fluid dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jebamani Rathnaraj David

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available It is known that a helical port is more effective than a tangential port to attain the required swirl ratio with minimum sacrifice in the volumetric efficiency. The swirl port is designed for lesser swirl ratio to reduce emissions at higher speeds. But this condition increases the air fuel mixing time and particulate smoke emissions at lower speeds. Optimum swirl ratio is necessary according to the engine operating condition for optimum combustion and emission reduction. Hence the engine needs variable swirl to enhance the combustion in the cylinder according to its operating conditions, for example at partial load or low speed condition it requires stronger swirl, while the air quantity is more important than the swirl under very high speed or full load and maximum torque conditions. The swirl and charging quantity can easily trade off and can be controlled by the opening of the valve. Hence in this study the steady flow rig experiment is used to evaluate the swirl of a helical intake port design for different operating conditions. The variable swirl plate set up of the W06DTIE2 engine is used to experimentally study the swirl variation for different openings of the valve. The sliding of the swirl plate results in the variation of the area of inlet port entry. Therefore in this study a swirl optimized combustion system varying according to the operating conditions by a variable swirl plate mechanism is studied experimentally and compared with the computational fluid dynamics predictions. In this study the fluent computational fluid dynamics code has been used to evaluate the flow in the port-cylinder system of a DI diesel engine in a steady flow rig. The computational grid is generated directly from 3-D CAD data and in cylinder flow simulations, with inflow boundary conditions from experimental measurements, are made using the fluent computational fluid dynamics code. The results are in very good agreement with experimental results.

  16. Chaos Synchronization Using Adaptive Dynamic Neural Network Controller with Variable Learning Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Hong Kao

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the synchronization of chaotic gyros with unknown parameters and external disturbance via an adaptive dynamic neural network control (ADNNC system. The proposed ADNNC system is composed of a neural controller and a smooth compensator. The neural controller uses a dynamic RBF (DRBF network to online approximate an ideal controller. The DRBF network can create new hidden neurons online if the input data falls outside the hidden layer and prune the insignificant hidden neurons online if the hidden neuron is inappropriate. The smooth compensator is designed to compensate for the approximation error between the neural controller and the ideal controller. Moreover, the variable learning rates of the parameter adaptation laws are derived based on a discrete-type Lyapunov function to speed up the convergence rate of the tracking error. Finally, the simulation results which verified the chaotic behavior of two nonlinear identical chaotic gyros can be synchronized using the proposed ADNNC scheme.

  17. Toward Capturing Momentary Changes of Heart Rate Variability by a Dynamic Analysis Method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoshi Zhang

    Full Text Available The analysis of heart rate variability (HRV has been performed on long-term electrocardiography (ECG recordings (12~24 hours and short-term recordings (2~5 minutes, which may not capture momentary change of HRV. In this study, we present a new method to analyze the momentary HRV (mHRV. The ECG recordings were segmented into a series of overlapped HRV analysis windows with a window length of 5 minutes and different time increments. The performance of the proposed method in delineating the dynamics of momentary HRV measurement was evaluated with four commonly used time courses of HRV measures on both synthetic time series and real ECG recordings from human subjects and dogs. Our results showed that a smaller time increment could capture more dynamical information on transient changes. Considering a too short increment such as 10 s would cause the indented time courses of the four measures, a 1-min time increment (4-min overlapping was suggested in the analysis of mHRV in the study. ECG recordings from human subjects and dogs were used to further assess the effectiveness of the proposed method. The pilot study demonstrated that the proposed analysis of mHRV could provide more accurate assessment of the dynamical changes in cardiac activity than the conventional measures of HRV (without time overlapping. The proposed method may provide an efficient means in delineating the dynamics of momentary HRV and it would be worthy performing more investigations.

  18. Variable threshold algorithm for division of labor analyzed as a dynamical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Cagigal, Manuel; Matallanas, Eduardo; Navarro, Iñaki; Caamaño-Martín, Estefanía; Monasterio-Huelin, Félix; Gutiérrez, Álvaro

    2014-12-01

    Division of labor is a widely studied aspect of colony behavior of social insects. Division of labor models indicate how individuals distribute themselves in order to perform different tasks simultaneously. However, models that study division of labor from a dynamical system point of view cannot be found in the literature. In this paper, we define a division of labor model as a discrete-time dynamical system, in order to study the equilibrium points and their properties related to convergence and stability. By making use of this analytical model, an adaptive algorithm based on division of labor can be designed to satisfy dynamic criteria. In this way, we have designed and tested an algorithm that varies the response thresholds in order to modify the dynamic behavior of the system. This behavior modification allows the system to adapt to specific environmental and collective situations, making the algorithm a good candidate for distributed control applications. The variable threshold algorithm is based on specialization mechanisms. It is able to achieve an asymptotically stable behavior of the system in different environments and independently of the number of individuals. The algorithm has been successfully tested under several initial conditions and number of individuals.

  19. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  20. The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia; Lin, Pu

    2015-07-30

    Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively forced SAT changes from raw SAT data. The dynamically induced SAT changes exhibited an obvious cooling effect relative to the warming effect of the adjusted SAT in the hiatus process. A correlation analysis suggests that the changes are dominated primarily by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Our results confirm that dynamically induced variability caused the WTS. The radiatively forced SAT changes are determined mainly by anthropogenic forcing, indicating the warming influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which reached levels of 400 ppm during the hiatus period. Therefore, the global SAT will not remain permanently neutral. The increased radiatively forced SAT will be amplified by increased dynamically induced SAT when the natural mode returns to a warming phase in the next period.

  1. Non-Markovian entanglement dynamics of noisy continuous-variable quantum channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, J.-H.; Zhang, W.-M.

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the entanglement dynamics of continuous-variable quantum channels in terms of an entangled squeezed state of two cavity fields in a general non-Markovian environment. Using the Feynman-Vernon influence functional theory in the coherent-state representation, we derive an exact master equation with time-dependent coefficients reflecting the non-Markovian influence of the environment. The influence of environments with different spectral densities, e.g., Ohmic, sub-Ohmic, and super-Ohmic, is numerically studied. The non-Markovian process shows its remarkable influence on the entanglement dynamics due to the sensitive time dependence of the dissipation and noise functions within the typical time scale of the environment. The Ohmic environment shows a weak dissipation-noise effect on the entanglement dynamics, while the sub-Ohmic and super-Ohmic environments induce much more severe noise. In particular, the memory of the system interacting with the environment contributes a strong decoherence effect to the entanglement dynamics in the super-Ohmic case

  2. Characterizing phenological vegetation dynamics amidst extreme climate variability in Australia with MODIS VI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.

    2012-12-01

    Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these

  3. Variability in dynamic properties of tantalum : spall, attenuation and load/unload.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furnish, Michael David; Reinhart, William Dodd; Trott, Wayne Merle; Vogler, Tracy John; Chhabildas, Lalit Chandra

    2005-07-01

    A suite of impact experiments was conducted to assess spatial and shot-to-shot variability in dynamic properties of tantalum. Samples had a uniform refined {approx}20 micron grain structure with a strong axisymmetric [111] crystallographic texture. Two experiments performed with sapphire windows (stresses of approximately 7 and 12 GPa) clearly showed elastic-plastic loading and slightly hysteretic unloading behavior. An HEL amplitude of 2.8 GPa (corresponding to Y 1.5 GPa) was observed. Free-surface spall experiments showed clear wave attenuation and spallation phenomena. Here, loading stresses were {approx} 12.5 GPa and various ratios of impactor to target thicknesses were used. Spatial and shot-to-shot variability of the spall strength was {+-} 20%, and of the HEL, {+-} 10%. Experiments conducted with smaller diameter flyer plates clearly showed edge effects in the line and point VISAR records, indicating lateral release speeds of roughly 5 km/s.

  4. Global variables and the dynamics or relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cugnon, J.; L'Hote, D.

    1983-01-01

    Various global variables providing a simple description of high multiplicity events are reviewed. Many of them are calculated in the framework of an intra-nuclear cascade model, which describes the collision process as a series of binary on-shell relativistic baryon-baryon collisions and which includes inelasticity through the production of δ-resonances. The calculations are first made for the Ar+KCl system at 0.8 GeV/A, with global variables including either all the nucleons or only the participant nucleons. The shape and the orientation of the ellipsoid of sphericity are particularly investigated. For both cases, on the average, the large axis of the ellipsoid is found to point in the beam direction. This result is discussed in comparison with hydrodynamics predictions and in relation with the mean free path. A kind of small 'bounce-off effect' is detected for intermediate impact parameters. The possibility of extracting the value of the impact parameter b from the value of a global variable is shown to depend upon the variation of this variable with b and upon the fluctuation of the global variable for a given impact parameter. A quality factor is defined to quantify this possibility. No current global variable seems to be more appropriate than the number of participant nucleons for the impact parameter selection. The physical origin of the fluctuations inside the intranuclear cascade model is discussed and the possibility of extracting useful information on the dynamics of the system from the fluctuations is pointed out. The energy dependence of our results is discussed. Some results of the calculations at 250 and 400 MeV/A are also presented for the same system Ar+KCl. (orig.)

  5. Dynamics of sexual populations structured by a space variable and a phenotypical trait

    KAUST Repository

    Mirrahimi, Sepideh

    2013-03-01

    We study sexual populations structured by a phenotypic trait and a space variable, in a non-homogeneous environment. Departing from an infinitesimal model, we perform an asymptotic limit to derive the system introduced in Kirkpatrick and Barton (1997). We then perform a further simplification to obtain a simple model. Thanks to this simpler equation, we can describe rigorously the dynamics of the population. In particular, we provide an explicit estimate of the invasion speed, or extinction speed of the species. Numerical computations show that this simple model provides a good approximation of the original infinitesimal model, and in particular describes quite well the evolution of the species\\' range. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  6. Dynamics of sexual populations structured by a space variable and a phenotypical trait

    KAUST Repository

    Mirrahimi, Sepideh; Raoul, Gaë l

    2013-01-01

    We study sexual populations structured by a phenotypic trait and a space variable, in a non-homogeneous environment. Departing from an infinitesimal model, we perform an asymptotic limit to derive the system introduced in Kirkpatrick and Barton (1997). We then perform a further simplification to obtain a simple model. Thanks to this simpler equation, we can describe rigorously the dynamics of the population. In particular, we provide an explicit estimate of the invasion speed, or extinction speed of the species. Numerical computations show that this simple model provides a good approximation of the original infinitesimal model, and in particular describes quite well the evolution of the species' range. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  7. Stratospheric changes caused by geoengineering applications: potential repercussions and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenzelmann, P.; Weisenstein, D.; Peter, T.; Luo, B. P.; Rozanov, E.; Fueglistaler, S.; Thomason, L. W.

    2009-04-01

    , larger injections might be required than previously assumed. Rasch et al. (2008) showed that smaller particles would be advantageous in terms of cooling the surface. However, with a continuous injection of sulphur dioxide into to lower tropical stratosphere aerosol size distributions with mode radii larger than 0.5 microns are likely to form. An additional complication is that the sedimenting particles tend to heat the tropical tropopause region and as a consequence the entry mixing ratio of water vapour increases. For the extreme scenario of 10 Mt/year injection SOCOL predicts an enhancement of the water vapour entry mixing ratio by more than 1 ppmv. This is predicted to have a significant impact on the radiative forcing and the total ozone, because of enhanced heterogeneous reactions and because the increased water vapour intensifies the hydrogen and chlorine catalysed ozone destruction cycles. The intense warming of the lower stratosphere further intensifies the catalytic ozone destruction cycles. Furthermore, the stratospheric circulation is predicted to change due to the strong heating of the lower stratosphere. As a consequence of the intensified meridional temperature gradient the polar vortices are strengthened with enhanced formation of polar stratospheric clouds and ozone depletion. The ozone loss due to changed stratospheric dynamic is four times larger than the ozone loss caused by the increase of aerosol surface for heterogeneous reactions, which would postpone the recovery of the ozone hole even more as already pointed out by Tilmes et al. [2008]. At the same time the uncertainties involved in the different modelling steps are tremendous. Model validation, by comparing model runs of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption with observations, reveals that the temperature increase in the lower stratosphere and the tropopause region is probably overestimated by SOCOL. Other CCMs show similar behaviour. This lets us conclude that with the present modelling tools we are

  8. Constructing the reduced dynamical models of interannual climate variability from spatial-distributed time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    We suggest a method for empirical forecast of climate dynamics basing on the reconstruction of reduced dynamical models in a form of random dynamical systems [1,2] derived from observational time series. The construction of proper embedding - the set of variables determining the phase space the model works in - is no doubt the most important step in such a modeling, but this task is non-trivial due to huge dimension of time series of typical climatic fields. Actually, an appropriate expansion of observational time series is needed yielding the number of principal components considered as phase variables, which are to be efficient for the construction of low-dimensional evolution operator. We emphasize two main features the reduced models should have for capturing the main dynamical properties of the system: (i) taking into account time-lagged teleconnections in the atmosphere-ocean system and (ii) reflecting the nonlinear nature of these teleconnections. In accordance to these principles, in this report we present the methodology which includes the combination of a new way for the construction of an embedding by the spatio-temporal data expansion and nonlinear model construction on the basis of artificial neural networks. The methodology is aplied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including fields of sea level pressure, geopotential height, and wind speed, covering Northern Hemisphere. Its efficiency for the interannual forecast of various climate phenomena including ENSO, PDO, NAO and strong blocking event condition over the mid latitudes, is demonstrated. Also, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce and predict the evolution of qualitative features of the dynamics, such as spectral peaks, critical transitions and statistics of extremes. This research was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics RAS) [1] Y. I. Molkov, E. M. Loskutov, D. N. Mukhin, and A. M. Feigin, "Random

  9. Dynamics of heart rate variability analysed through nonlinear and linear dynamics is already impaired in young type 1 diabetic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Naiara M; Giacon, Thais R; Pacagnelli, Francis L; Barbosa, Marianne P C R; Valenti, Vitor E; Vanderlei, Luiz C M

    2016-10-01

    Autonomic diabetic neuropathy is one of the most common complications of type 1 diabetes mellitus, and studies using heart rate variability to investigate these individuals have shown inconclusive results regarding autonomic nervous system activation. Aims To investigate the dynamics of heart rate in young subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus through nonlinear and linear methods of heart rate variability. We evaluated 20 subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus and 23 healthy control subjects. We obtained the following nonlinear indices from the recurrence plot: recurrence rate (REC), determinism (DET), and Shanon entropy (ES), and we analysed indices in the frequency (LF and HF in ms2 and normalised units - nu - and LF/HF ratio) and time domains (SDNN and RMSSD), through analysis of 1000 R-R intervals, captured by a heart rate monitor. There were reduced values (p<0.05) for individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus compared with healthy subjects in the following indices: DET, REC, ES, RMSSD, SDNN, LF (ms2), and HF (ms2). In relation to the recurrence plot, subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus demonstrated lower recurrence and greater variation in their plot, inter-group and intra-group, respectively. Young subjects with type 1 diabetes mellitus have autonomic nervous system behaviour that tends to randomness compared with healthy young subjects. Moreover, this behaviour is related to reduced sympathetic and parasympathetic activity of the autonomic nervous system.

  10. Dust ablation on the giant planets: Consequences for stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Julianne I.; Poppe, Andrew R.

    2017-11-01

    Ablation of interplanetary dust supplies oxygen to the upper atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. Using recent dynamical model predictions for the dust influx rates to the giant planets (Poppe et al., 2016), we calculate the ablation profiles and investigate the subsequent coupled oxygen-hydrocarbon neutral photochemistry in the stratospheres of these planets. We find that dust grains from the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt, Jupiter-family comets, and Oort-cloud comets supply an effective oxygen influx rate of 1.0-0.7+2.2 ×107 O atoms cm-2 s-1 to Jupiter, 7.4-5.1+16 ×104 cm-2 s-1 to Saturn, 8.9-6.1+19 ×104 cm-2 s-1 to Uranus, and 7.5-5.1+16 ×105 cm-2 s-1 to Neptune. The fate of the ablated oxygen depends in part on the molecular/atomic form of the initially delivered products, and on the altitude at which it was deposited. The dominant stratospheric products are CO, H2O, and CO2, which are relatively stable photochemically. Model-data comparisons suggest that interplanetary dust grains deliver an important component of the external oxygen to Jupiter and Uranus but fall far short of the amount needed to explain the CO abundance currently seen in the middle stratospheres of Saturn and Neptune. Our results are consistent with the theory that all of the giant planets have experienced large cometary impacts within the last few hundred years. Our results also suggest that the low background H2O abundance in Jupiter's stratosphere is indicative of effective conversion of meteoric oxygen to CO during or immediately after the ablation process - photochemistry alone cannot efficiently convert the H2O into CO on the giant planets.

  11. On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Chiodo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere with regard to temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 \\unit{yr} solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple linear regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. The novel regression approach shows that most of the apparent solar-induced lower-stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. This is caused by the alignment of these eruptions with periods of high solar activity. While it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr simulation. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambiguously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

  12. Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundson, Sara; Eklöf, Anna; Wennergren, Uno

    2015-08-07

    How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species-species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment. © 2015 The Author(s).

  13. ATMOS Stratospheric Deuterated Water and Implications for Tropospheric-Stratospheric Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Irion, Fredrick W.; Yung, Yuk L.; Gunson, Michael R.

    1996-01-01

    Measurements of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water by the ATMOS instrument are used to infer the convective history of stratospheric air. The average water vapor entering the stratosphere is found to be highly depleted of deuterium, with delta-D(sub w) of -670 +/- 80 (67% deuterium loss). Model calculations predict, however, that under conditions of thermodynamic equilibrium, dehydration to stratospheric mixing ratios should produce stronger depletion to delta-D(sub w) of -800 to 900 (80-90% deuterium loss). Deuterium enrichment of water vapor in ascending parcels can occur only in conditions of rapid convection; enrichments persisting into the stratosphere require that those conditions continue to near-tropopause altitudes. We conclude that either the predominant source of water vapor to the uppermost troposphere is enriched convective water, most likely evaporated cloud ice, or troposphere-stratosphere transport occurs closely associated with tropical deep convection.

  14. Variability of ethane on Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostiuk, Theodor; Espenak, Fred; Mumma, Michael J.; Deming, Drake; Zipoy, David

    1987-01-01

    Varying stratospheric temperature profiles and C2H6 altitude distributions furnish contexts for the evaluation of ethane abundances and distributions in the Jupiter stratosphere. Substantial ethane line emission and retrieved mole fraction variability is noted near the footprint of Io's flux tube, as well as within the auroral regions. It is suggested that this and other observed phenomena are due to the modification of local stratospheric chemistry by higher-order effects, which are in turn speculated to be due to the precipitation of charged particles along magnetic field lines.

  15. Laboratory Investigations of Stratospheric Halogen Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wine, Paul H.; Nicovich, J. Michael; Stickel, Robert E.; Hynes, Anthony J.

    1997-01-01

    A final report for the NASA-supported project on laboratory investigations of stratospheric halogen chemistry is presented. In recent years, this project has focused on three areas of research: (1) kinetic, mechanistic, and thermochemical studies of reactions which produce weakly bound chemical species of atmospheric interest; (2) development of flash photolysis schemes for studying radical-radical reactions of stratospheric interest; and (3) photochemistry studies of interest for understanding stratospheric chemistry. The first section of this paper contains a discussion of work which has not yet been published. All subsequent chapters contain reprints of published papers that acknowledge support from this grant.

  16. Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Craig S.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Davis, Sean; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Wright, Corwin J.

    2017-12-01

    Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon), aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979-2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2) between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979-1998) and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999-2014). There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25) have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from TOVS to ATOVS observations

  17. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-01-15

    The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. (orig.)

  18. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bohua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kinter, James L.; Wu, Zhaohua; Kumar, Arun

    2012-01-01

    The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  19. Nonlinear dynamic modeling of a simple flexible rotor system subjected to time-variable base motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liqiang; Wang, Jianjun; Han, Qinkai; Chu, Fulei

    2017-09-01

    Rotor systems carried in transportation system or under seismic excitations are considered to have a moving base. To study the dynamic behavior of flexible rotor systems subjected to time-variable base motions, a general model is developed based on finite element method and Lagrange's equation. Two groups of Euler angles are defined to describe the rotation of the rotor with respect to the base and that of the base with respect to the ground. It is found that the base rotations would cause nonlinearities in the model. To verify the proposed model, a novel test rig which could simulate the base angular-movement is designed. Dynamic experiments on a flexible rotor-bearing system with base angular motions are carried out. Based upon these, numerical simulations are conducted to further study the dynamic response of the flexible rotor under harmonic angular base motions. The effects of base angular amplitude, rotating speed and base frequency on response behaviors are discussed by means of FFT, waterfall, frequency response curve and orbits of the rotor. The FFT and waterfall plots of the disk horizontal and vertical vibrations are marked with multiplications of the base frequency and sum and difference tones of the rotating frequency and the base frequency. Their amplitudes will increase remarkably when they meet the whirling frequencies of the rotor system.

  20. A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, V.

    1993-01-01

    The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

  1. Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

  2. Solar research with stratospheric balloons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Manuel; Wittmann, Axel D.

    Balloons, driven by hot air or some gas lighter than air, were the first artificial machines able to lift payloads (including humans) from the ground. After some pioneering flights the study of the physical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere constituted the first scientific target. A bit later astronomers realized that the turbulence of the atmospheric layers above their ground-based telescopes deteriorated the image quality, and that balloons were an appropriate means to overcome, total or partially, this problem. Some of the most highly-resolved photographs and spectrograms of the sun during the 20th century were actually obtained by balloon-borne telescopes from the stratosphere. Some more recent projects of solar balloon astronomy will also be described.

  3. A fast chaos-based image encryption scheme with a dynamic state variables selection mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-xin; Zhu, Zhi-liang; Fu, Chong; Yu, Hai; Zhang, Li-bo

    2015-03-01

    In recent years, a variety of chaos-based image cryptosystems have been investigated to meet the increasing demand for real-time secure image transmission. Most of them are based on permutation-diffusion architecture, in which permutation and diffusion are two independent procedures with fixed control parameters. This property results in two flaws. (1) At least two chaotic state variables are required for encrypting one plain pixel, in permutation and diffusion stages respectively. Chaotic state variables produced with high computation complexity are not sufficiently used. (2) The key stream solely depends on the secret key, and hence the cryptosystem is vulnerable against known/chosen-plaintext attacks. In this paper, a fast chaos-based image encryption scheme with a dynamic state variables selection mechanism is proposed to enhance the security and promote the efficiency of chaos-based image cryptosystems. Experimental simulations and extensive cryptanalysis have been carried out and the results prove the superior security and high efficiency of the scheme.

  4. Dynamics calculation with variable mass of mountain self-propelled chassis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.M. Makharoblidze

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Many technological processes in the field of agricultural production mechanization, such as a grain crop, planting root-tuber fruits, fertilizing, spraying and dusting, pressing feed materials, harvesting of various cultures, etc. are performed by the machine-tractor units with variable mass of links or processed media and materials. In recent years, are also developing the systems of automatic control, adjusting and control of technological processes and working members in agriculture production. Is studied the dynamics of transition processes of mountain self-propelled chassis with variable mass at real change disconnect or joining masses that is most often used in the function of movement (m(t = ctm(t = ct. Are derived the formulas of change of velocity of movement on displacement of unit and is defined the dependence of this velocity on the tractor and technological machine performance, with taking into account the gradual increase or removing of agricultural materials masses. According to the equation is possible to define a linear movement of machine-tractor unit. According to the obtained expressions we can define the basic operating parameters of machine-tractor unit with variable mass. The results of research would be applied at definition of characteristics of units, at development of new agricultural tractors.

  5. Effect of flow rate on environmental variables and phytoplankton dynamics: results from field enclosures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiping; Chen, Ruihong; Li, Feipeng; Chen, Ling

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the effects of flow rate on phytoplankton dynamics and related environment variables, a set of enclosure experiments with different flow rates were conducted in an artificial lake. We monitored nutrients, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, conductivity, turbidity, chlorophyll- a and phytoplankton levels. The lower biomass in all flowing enclosures showed that flow rate significantly inhibited the growth of phytoplankton. A critical flow rate occurred near 0.06 m/s, which was the lowest relative inhibitory rate. Changes in flow conditions affected algal competition for light, resulting in a dramatic shift in phytoplankton composition, from blue-green algae in still waters to green algae in flowing conditions. These findings indicate that critical flow rate can be useful in developing methods to reduce algal bloom occurrence. However, flow rate significantly enhanced the inter-relationships among environmental variables, in particular by inducing higher water turbidity and vegetative reproduction of periphyton ( Spirogyra). These changes were accompanied by a decrease in underwater light intensity, which consequently inhibited the photosynthetic intensity of phytoplankton. These results warn that a universal critical flow rate might not exist, because the effect of flow rate on phytoplankton is interlinked with many other environmental variables.

  6. Investigation of the temporal development of the stratospheric ozone layer with an interactively coupled chemistry-climate model; Untersuchung der zeitlichen Entwicklung der stratosphaerischen Ozonschicht mit einem interaktiv gekoppelten Klima-Chemie-Modell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnadt, C

    2001-07-01

    The impact of climate change and stratospheric chlorine loading on the stratospheric ozone layer is estimated by evaluating three multi-annual simulations of the interactively coupled global chemistry-climate model ECUAM4.L39 (DLR)/CHEM. Two experiments of the near past were carried out representing the early 1980s and 1990s, respectively. An additional scenario was conducted which is characterised by increased greenhouse gas concentrations and a slightly reduced stratospheric chlorine loading with respect to its value measured in the year 1990, according to current projections. The model is able to describe dynamic and chemical processes of the 1980s and 1990s realistically, and it is capable in reproducing the observed stratospheric temperature, water vapour, and ozone temperature trends of this time period. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the model produces an enhancing stratospheric cooling for the years 1980 to 2015. Despite the reduced stratospheric chlorine loading in 2015, the decreased stratospheric temperatures will cause a continued reduction of stratospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere. In the northern hemisphere, tropospheric warming results in a changed excitation of planetary waves. Their vertical propagation and breaking in the stratosphere causes the polar vortex to become more unstable in 2015. This overcompensates the radiative stratospheric cooling so that stratospheric ozone recovers. (orig.)

  7. Measurements of HCl and HNO3 with the new research aircraft HALO - Quantification of the stratospheric contribution to the O3 and HNO3 budget in the UT/LS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurkat, Tina; Kaufmann, Stefan; Voigt, Christiane; Zahn, Andreas; Schlager, Hans; Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald; Dörnbrack, Andreas

    2013-04-01

    Dynamic and chemical processes modify the ozone (O3) budget of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, leading to locally variable O3 trends. In this region, O3 acts as a strong greenhouse gas with a net positive radiative forcing. It has been suggested, that the correlation of the stratospheric tracer hydrochloric acid (HCl) with O3 can be used to quantify stratospheric O3 in the UT/LS region (Marcy et al., 2004). The question is, whether the stratospheric contribution to the nitric acid (HNO3) budget in the UT/LS can be determined by a similar approach in order to differentiate between tropospheric and stratospheric sources of HNO3. To this end, we performed in situ measurements of HCl and HNO3 with a newly developed Atmospheric chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (AIMS) during the TACTS (Transport and Composition in the UTLS) / ESMVal (Earth System Model Validation) mission in August/September 2012. The linear quadrupole mass spectrometer deployed aboard the new German research aircraft HALO was equipped with a new discharge source generating SF5- reagent ions and an in-flight calibration allowing for accurate, spatially highly resolved trace gas measurements. In addition, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrous acid (HONO) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2) have been simultaneously detected with the AIMS instrument. Here, we show trace gas distributions of HCl and HNO3 measured during a North-South transect from Northern Europe to Antarctica (68° N to 65° S) at 8 to 15 km altitude and discuss their latitude dependence. In particular, we investigate the stratospheric ozone contribution to the ozone budget in the mid-latitude UT/LS using correlations of HCl with O3. Differences in these correlations in the subtropical and Polar regions are discussed. A similar approach is used to quantify the HNO3 budget of the UT/LS. We identify unpolluted atmospheric background distributions and various tropospheric HNO3 sources in specific regions. Our observations can be compared to

  8. Climate Variability and Mangrove Cover Dynamics at Species Level in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Kumer Ghosh

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Mangrove ecosystems are complex in nature. For monitoring the impact of climate variability in this ecosystem, a multidisciplinary approach is a prerequisite. Changes in temperature and rainfall pattern have been suggested as an influential factor responsible for the change in mangrove species composition and spatial distribution. The main aim of this study was to assess the relationship between temperature, rainfall pattern and dynamics of mangrove species in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh, over a 38 year time period from 1977 to 2015. To assess the relationship, a three stage analytical process was employed. Primarily, the trend of temperature and rainfall over the study period were identified using a linear trend model; then, the supervised maximum likelihood classifier technique was employed to classify images recorded by Landsat series and post-classification comparison techniques were used to detect changes at species level. The rate of change of different mangrove species was also estimated in the second stage. Finally, the relationship between temperature, rainfall and the dynamics of mangroves at species level was determined using a simple linear regression model. The results show a significant statistical relationship between temperature, rainfall and the dynamics of mangrove species. The trends of change for Heritiera fomes and Sonneratia apelatala show a strong relationship with temperature and rainfall, while Ceriops decandra shows a weak relationship. In contrast, Excoecaria agallocha and Xylocarpus mekongensis do not show any significant relationship with temperature and rainfall. On the basis of our results, it can be concluded that temperature and rainfall are important climatic factors influencing the dynamics of three major mangrove species viz. H. fomes, S. apelatala and C. decandra in the Sundarbans.

  9. Laboratory studies of stratospheric aerosol chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario J.

    1996-01-01

    In this report we summarize the results of the two sets of projects funded by the NASA grant NAG2-632, namely investigations of various thermodynamic and nucleation properties of the aqueous acid system which makes up stratospheric aerosols, and measurements of reaction probabilities directly on ice aerosols with sizes corresponding to those of polar stratospheric cloud particles. The results of these investigations are of importance for the assessment of the potential stratospheric effects of future fleets of supersonic aircraft. In particular, the results permit to better estimate the effects of increased amounts of water vapor and nitric acid (which forms from nitrogen oxides) on polar stratospheric clouds and on the chemistry induced by these clouds.

  10. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering

    KAUST Repository

    Robock, Alan; Marquardt, Allison; Kravitz, Ben; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-01-01

    Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers

  11. Zonally resolved impact of ENSO on the stratospheric circulation and water vapor entry values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Riese, Martin

    2016-10-01

    Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the period 1979-2013, with model transport driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis, we discuss the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of the dynamics, water vapor, ozone, and mean age of air (AoA) in the tropical lower stratosphere during boreal winter. Our zonally resolved analysis at the 390 K potential temperature level reveals that not only (deseasonalized) ENSO-related temperature anomalies are confined to the tropical Pacific (180-300°E) but also anomalous wave propagation and breaking, as quantified in terms of the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence, with strongest local contribution during the La Niña phase. This anomaly is coherent with respective anomalies of water vapor (±0.5 ppmv) and ozone (±100 ppbv) derived from CLaMS being in excellent agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder observations. Thus, during El Niño a more zonally symmetric wave forcing drives a deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation. During La Niña this forcing increases at lower levels (≈390 K) over the tropical Pacific, likely influencing the shallow branch of the BD circulation. In agreement with previous studies, wet (dry) and young (old) tape recorder anomalies propagate upward in the subsequent months following El Niño (La Niña). Using CLaMS, these anomalies are found to be around +0.3 (-0.2) ppmv and -4 (+4) months for water vapor and AoA, respectively. The AoA ENSO anomaly is more strongly affected by the residual circulation (≈2/3) than by eddy mixing (≈1/3).

  12. First Simulations of Designing Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering to Meet Multiple Simultaneous Climate Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Mills, Michael J.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tribbia, Joseph J.; Vitt, Francis

    2017-12-01

    We describe the first simulations of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering using multiple injection locations to meet multiple simultaneous surface temperature objectives. Simulations were performed using CESM1(WACCM), a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with fully interactive stratospheric chemistry, dynamics (including an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation), and a sophisticated treatment of sulfate aerosol formation, microphysical growth, and deposition. The objectives are defined as maintaining three temperature features at their 2020 levels against a background of the RCP8.5 scenario over the period 2020-2099. These objectives are met using a feedback mechanism in which the rate of sulfur dioxide injection at each of the four locations is adjusted independently every year of simulation. Even in the presence of uncertainties, nonlinearities, and variability, the objectives are met, predominantly by SO2 injection at 30°N and 30°S. By the last year of simulation, the feedback algorithm calls for a total injection rate of 51 Tg SO2 per year. The injections are not in the tropics, which results in a greater degree of linearity of the surface climate response with injection amount than has been found in many previous studies using injection at the equator. Because the objectives are defined in terms of annual mean temperature, the required geongineering results in "overcooling" during summer and "undercooling" during winter. The hydrological cycle is also suppressed as compared to the reference values corresponding to the year 2020. The demonstration we describe in this study is an important step toward understanding what geoengineering can do and what it cannot do.

  13. Stratospheric nitrogen dioxide in the vicinity of Soufriere, St. Vincent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romick, G. J.; Murcray, D. G.; Williams, W. J.

    1982-01-01

    In April 1979, measurements of nitrogen dioxide in the upper atmosphere were made near Soufriere Volcano by twilight optical-absorption techniques. The derived value of 5 x 10 to the 15th molecules per square centimeter column implies an enhancement of 25 percent over earlier abundances measured in the same latitudinal regions. This enhancement may represent the normal stratospheric variability of nitrogen dioxide in the equatorial region, but in any case may be considered an upper limit to the volcano's effect on the total nitrogen dioxide abundance.

  14. Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST

  15. Interannual and Decadal Variations of Planetary Wave Activity, Stratospheric Cooling, and Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yongyun; Kit Tung, Ka

    2002-07-01

    Using NCEP-NCAR 51-yr reanalysis data, the interannual and decadal variations of planetary wave activity and its relationship to stratospheric cooling, and the Northern Hemisphere Annular mode (NAM), are studied. It is found that winter stratospheric polar temperature is highly correlated on a year-to-year basis with the Eliassen-Palm (E-P) wave flux from the troposphere, implying a dynamical control of the former by the latter, as often suggested. Greater (lower) wave activity from the troposphere implies larger (smaller) poleward heat flux into the polar region, which leads to warmer (colder) polar temperature. A similar highly correlated antiphase relationship holds for E-P flux divergence and the strength of the polar vortex in the stratosphere. It is tempting to extrapolate these relationships found for interannual timescales to explain the recent stratospheric polar cooling trend in the past few decades as caused by decreased wave activity in the polar region. This speculation is not supported by the data. On timescales of decades the cooling trend is not correlated with the trend in planetary wave activity. In fact, it is found that planetary wave amplitude, E-P flux, and E-P flux convergence all show little statistical evidence of decrease in the past 51 yr, while the stratosphere is experiencing a cooling trend and the NAM index has a positive trend during the past 30 yr. This suggests that the trends in the winter polar temperature and the NAM index can reasonably be attributed to the radiative cooling of the stratosphere, due possibly to increasing greenhouse gases and ozone depletion. It is further shown that the positive trend of the NAM index in the past few decades is not through the inhibition of upward planetary wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere, as previously suggested.

  16. Classification of hemispheric monthly mean stratospheric potential vorticity fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Huth

    Full Text Available Monthly mean NCEP reanalysis potential vorticity fields at the 650 K isentropic level over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres between 1979 and 1997 were studied using multivariate analysis tools. Principal component analysis in the T-mode was applied to demonstrate the validity of such statistical techniques for the study of stratospheric dynamics and climatology. The method, complementarily applied to both the raw and anomaly fields, was useful in determining and classifying the characteristics of winter and summer PV fields on both hemispheres, in particular, the well-known differences in the behaviour and persistence of the polar vortices. It was possible to identify such features as sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere and final warming dates in both hemispheres. The stratospheric impact of other atmospheric processes, such as volcanic eruptions, also identified though the results, must be viewed at this stage as tentative. An interesting change in behaviour around 1990 was detected over both hemispheres.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics; general circulation; climatology

  17. Simulated dynamic response of a multi-stage compressor with variable molecular weight flow medium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Dale A.

    1995-01-01

    A mathematical model of a multi-stage compressor with variable molecular weight flow medium is derived. The modeled system consists of a five stage, six cylinder, double acting, piston type compressor. Each stage is followed by a water cooled heat exchanger which serves to transfer the heat of compression from the gas. A high molecular weight gas (CFC-12) mixed with air in varying proportions is introduced to the suction of the compressor. Condensation of the heavy gas may occur in the upper stage heat exchangers. The state equations for the system are integrated using the Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) for determining the system's dynamic and steady state characteristics under varying operating conditions.

  18. Theoretical, numerical and experimental study of accretion shocks dynamics in magnetic cataclysmic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busschaert, Clotilde

    2013-01-01

    Magnetic cataclysmic variables are interacting binary Systems containing a highly magnetized white dwarf which accretes material from a companion. Material is led along magnetic field lines and falls onto the magnetic pole(s) supersonically forming an accretion column. As the material hits the surface, a reverse shock is formed and the shocked region is structured by the cooling effect of radiation processes. This work is a multidisciplinary study of the dynamics of the accretion column. Firstly, a numerical study of the accretion column structure at the astrophysical scale is presented. The observational consequences are discussed. This approach is completed by experiments using radiative flows generated by powerful lasers. The relevance of such experiments is based on the establishment of scaling laws. News scaling laws in the frame of radiative ideal or resistive MHD are exposed. The results of the sizing and the interpretation of the POLAR experimental campaign of 2012 on LULI2000 installation are presented. (author) [fr

  19. Spatiotemporal dynamics of random stimuli account for trial-to-trial variability in perceptual decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hame; Lueckmann, Jan-Matthis; von Kriegstein, Katharina; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.

    2016-01-01

    Decisions in everyday life are prone to error. Standard models typically assume that errors during perceptual decisions are due to noise. However, it is unclear how noise in the sensory input affects the decision. Here we show that there are experimental tasks for which one can analyse the exact spatio-temporal details of a dynamic sensory noise and better understand variability in human perceptual decisions. Using a new experimental visual tracking task and a novel Bayesian decision making model, we found that the spatio-temporal noise fluctuations in the input of single trials explain a significant part of the observed responses. Our results show that modelling the precise internal representations of human participants helps predict when perceptual decisions go wrong. Furthermore, by modelling precisely the stimuli at the single-trial level, we were able to identify the underlying mechanism of perceptual decision making in more detail than standard models. PMID:26752272

  20. Dynamics and stability of transverse vibrations of nonlocal nanobeams with a variable axial load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C; Yu, J L; Lim, C W

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the natural frequency, steady-state resonance and stability for the transverse vibrations of a nanobeam subjected to a variable initial axial force, including axial tension and axial compression, based on nonlocal elasticity theory. It is reported that the nonlocal nanoscale has significant effects on vibration behavior, which results in a new effective nonlocal bending moment different to but dependent on the corresponding nonlocal bending moment. The effects of nonlocal nanoscale and the variation of initial axial force on the natural frequency as well as the instability regions are analyzed by the perturbation method. It concludes that both the nonlocal nanoscale and the initial tension, including static and dynamic tensions, cause an increase in natural frequency, while an initial compression causes the natural frequency to decrease. Instability regions are also greatly influenced by the nonlocal nanoscale and initial tension and they become smaller with stronger nonlocal effects or larger initial tension

  1. Stratospheric ozone measurements at Arosa (Switzerland): history and scientific relevance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staehelin, Johannes; Viatte, Pierre; Stübi, Rene; Tummon, Fiona; Peter, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Climatic Observatory (LKO) in Arosa (Switzerland), marking the beginning of the world's longest series of total (or column) ozone measurements. They were driven by the recognition that atmospheric ozone is important for human health, as well as by scientific curiosity about what was, at the time, an ill characterised atmospheric trace gas. From around the mid-1950s to the beginning of the 1970s studies of high atmosphere circulation patterns that could improve weather forecasting was justification for studying stratospheric ozone. In the mid-1970s, a paradigm shift occurred when it became clear that the damaging effects of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), such as long-lived chlorofluorocarbons, needed to be documented. This justified continuing the ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone. Levels of ODSs peaked around the mid-1990s as a result of a global environmental policy to protect the ozone layer, implemented through the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Consequently, chemical destruction of stratospheric ozone started to slow around the mid-1990s. To some extent, this raises the question as to whether continued ozone observation is indeed necessary. In the last decade there has been a tendency to reduce the costs associated with making ozone measurements globally including at Arosa. However, the large natural variability in ozone on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual scales complicates the capacity for demonstrating the success of the Montreal Protocol. Chemistry-climate models also predict a super-recovery of the ozone layer at mid-latitudes in the second half of this century, i.e. an increase of ozone concentrations beyond pre-1970 levels, as a consequence of ongoing climate change. These factors, and identifying potentially unexpected stratospheric responses to climate change, support the continued need to document stratospheric ozone changes. This is particularly valuable at the Arosa site, due

  2. Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J

    2010-07-13

    Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

  3. Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khoa T D Thai

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found.A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

  4. How do task characteristics affect learning and performance? The roles of variably mapped and dynamic tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macnamara, Brooke N; Frank, David J

    2018-05-01

    For well over a century, scientists have investigated individual differences in performance. The majority of studies have focused on either differences in practice, or differences in cognitive resources. However, the predictive ability of either practice or cognitive resources varies considerably across tasks. We are the first to examine task characteristics' impact on learning and performance in a complex task while controlling for other task characteristics. In 2 experiments we test key theoretical task characteristic thought to moderate the relationship between practice, cognitive resources, and performance. We devised a task where each of several key task characteristics can be manipulated independently. Participants played 5 rounds of a game similar to the popular tower defense videogame Plants vs. Zombies where both cognitive load and game characteristics were manipulated. In Experiment 1, participants either played a consistently mapped version-the stimuli and the associated meaning of their properties were constant across the 5 rounds-or played a variably mapped version-the stimuli and the associated meaning of their properties changed every few minutes. In Experiment 2, participants either played a static version-that is, turn taking with no time pressure-or played a dynamic version-that is, the stimuli moved regardless of participants' response rates. In Experiment 1, participants' accuracy and efficiency were substantially hindered in the variably mapped conditions. In Experiment 2, learning and performance accuracy were hindered in the dynamic conditions, especially when under cognitive load. Our results suggest that task characteristics impact the relative importance of cognitive resources and practice on predicting learning and performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Development of a climate record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from satellite remote sensing: evidence of an early recovery of global stratospheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Ziemke

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud Slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and for studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-yr (1979–2010 long record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS and OMI. Analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO is the dominant source of inter-annual variability of stratospheric ozone and is clearest in the Southern Hemisphere during the Aura time record with related inter-annual changes of 30–40 Dobson Units. Tropospheric ozone for the long record also indicates a QBO signal in the tropics with peak-to-peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. The most important result from our study is that global stratospheric ozone indicates signature of a recovery occurring with ozone abundance now approaching the levels of year 1980 and earlier. The negative trends in stratospheric ozone in both hemispheres during the first 15 yr of the record are now positive over the last 15 yr and with nearly equal magnitudes. This turnaround in stratospheric ozone loss is occurring about 20 yr earlier than predicted by many chemistry climate models. This suggests that the Montreal Protocol which was first signed in 1987 as an international agreement to reduce ozone destroying substances is working well and perhaps better than anticipated.

  6. Stratospheric chlorine injection by volcanic eruptions - HCl scavenging and implications for ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabazadeh, A.; Turco, R. P.

    1993-01-01

    Because the output of volatile chlorine during a major volcanic event can greatly exceed the annual anthropogenic emissions of chlorine to the atmosphere, the fate of volcanic chlorine must be known. Although numerous observations have shown that volcanoes do not significantly contribute to the stratospheric chlorine burden, no quantitative explanation has been published. Hydrogen chloride (HCl) scavenging processes during the early phases of a volcanic eruption are discussed. A plume dynamics and thermodynamics model is used to show that HCl removal in condensed supercooled water can reduce HCl vapor concentrations by up to four orders of magnitude, preventing substantial stratospheric chlorine injection.

  7. Issues in Stratospheric Ozone Depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Steven Andrew

    Following the announcement of the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985 there have arisen a multitude of questions pertaining to the nature and consequences of polar ozone depletion. This thesis addresses several of these specific questions, using both computer models of chemical kinetics and the Earth's radiation field as well as laboratory kinetic experiments. A coupled chemical kinetic-radiative numerical model was developed to assist in the analysis of in situ field measurements of several radical and neutral species in the polar and mid-latitude lower stratosphere. Modeling was used in the analysis of enhanced polar ClO, mid-latitude diurnal variation of ClO, and simultaneous measurements of OH, HO_2, H_2 O and O_3. Most importantly, such modeling was instrumental in establishing the link between the observed ClO and BrO concentrations in the Antarctic polar vortex and the observed rate of ozone depletion. The principal medical concern of stratospheric ozone depletion is that ozone loss will lead to the enhancement of ground-level UV-B radiation. Global ozone climatology (40^circS to 50^ circN latitude) was incorporated into a radiation field model to calculate the biologically accumulated dosage (BAD) of UV-B radiation, integrated over days, months, and years. The slope of the annual BAD as a function of latitude was found to correspond to epidemiological data for non-melanoma skin cancers for 30^circ -50^circN. Various ozone loss scenarios were investigated. It was found that a small ozone loss in the tropics can provide as much additional biologically effective UV-B as a much larger ozone loss at higher latitudes. Also, for ozone depletions of > 5%, the BAD of UV-B increases exponentially with decreasing ozone levels. An important key player in determining whether polar ozone depletion can propagate into the populated mid-latitudes is chlorine nitrate, ClONO_2 . As yet this molecule is only indirectly accounted for in computer models and field

  8. Dynamic Analysis for a Geared Turbofan Engine with Variable Area Fan Nozzle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csank, Jeffrey T.; Thomas, George L.

    2017-01-01

    Aggressive design goals have been set for future aero-propulsion systems with regards to fuel economy, noise, and emissions. To meet these challenging goals, advanced propulsion concepts are being explored and current operating margins are being re-evaluated to find additional concessions that can be made. One advanced propulsion concept being evaluated is a geared turbofan with a variable area fan nozzle (VAFN), developed by NASA. This engine features a small core, a fan driven by the low pressure turbine through a reduction gearbox, and a shape memory alloy (SMA)-actuated VAFN. The VAFN is designed to allow both a small exit area for efficient operation at cruise, while being able to open wider at high power conditions to reduce backpressure on the fan and ensure a safe level of stall margin is maintained. The VAFN is actuated via a SMA-based system instead of a conventional system to decrease overall weight of the system, however, SMA-based actuators respond relatively slowly, which introduces dynamic issues that are investigated in this work. This paper describes both a control system designed specifically for issues associated with SMAs, and dynamic analysis of the geared turbofan VAFN with the SMA actuators. Also, some future recommendations are provided for this type of propulsion system.

  9. Temporal variability in phosphorus transfers: classifying concentration–discharge event dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Haygarth

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of temporal variability in relationships between phosphorus (P concentration (Cp and discharge (Q is linked to a simple means of classifying the circumstances of Cp–Q relationships in terms of functional types of response. New experimental data at the upstream interface of grassland soil and catchment systems at a range of scales (lysimeters to headwaters in England and Australia are used to demonstrate the potential of such an approach. Three types of event are defined as Types 1–3, depending on whether the relative change in Q exceeds the relative change in Cp (Type 1, whether Cp and Q are positively inter-related (Type 2 and whether Cp varies yet Q is unchanged (Type 3. The classification helps to characterise circumstances that can be explained mechanistically in relation to (i the scale of the study (with a tendency towards Type 1 in small scale lysimeters, (ii the form of P with a tendency for Type 1 for soluble (i.e., p–Q relationships that can be developed further to contribute to future models of P transfer and delivery from slope to stream. Studies that evaluate the temporal dynamics of the transfer of P are currently grossly under-represented in comparison with models based on static/spatial factors. Keywords: phosphorus, concentration, discharge, lysimeters, temporal dynamics, overland flow

  10. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ragosta

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram, a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal fluctuations are characterised by two time scale ranges in which self-potential variability appears to follow slightly different dynamical behaviours. Results point to the presence of fractal, non stationary features expressing a long term correlation with scaling coefficients which are the clue of stabilising mechanisms. In the scale ranges in which the series show scale invariant behaviour, self-potentials evolve like fractional Brownian motions with anticorrelated increments typical of processes regulated by negative feedback mechanisms (antipersistence. On scales below about 6 h the strength of such an antipersistence appears to be slightly greater than that observed on larger time scales where the fluctuations are less efficiently stabilised.

  11. Dynamic Network Communication in the Human Functional Connectome Predicts Perceptual Variability in Visual Illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiwei; Zeljic, Kristina; Jiang, Qinying; Gu, Yong; Wang, Wei; Wang, Zheng

    2018-01-01

    Ubiquitous variability between individuals in visual perception is difficult to standardize and has thus essentially been ignored. Here we construct a quantitative psychophysical measure of illusory rotary motion based on the Pinna-Brelstaff figure (PBF) in 73 healthy volunteers and investigate the neural circuit mechanisms underlying perceptual variation using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We acquired fMRI data from a subset of 42 subjects during spontaneous and 3 stimulus conditions: expanding PBF, expanding modified-PBF (illusion-free) and expanding modified-PBF with physical rotation. Brain-wide graph analysis of stimulus-evoked functional connectivity patterns yielded a functionally segregated architecture containing 3 discrete hierarchical networks, commonly shared between rest and stimulation conditions. Strikingly, communication efficiency and strength between 2 networks predominantly located in visual areas robustly predicted individual perceptual differences solely in the illusory stimulus condition. These unprecedented findings demonstrate that stimulus-dependent, not spontaneous, dynamic functional integration between distributed brain networks contributes to perceptual variability in humans. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

    2011-04-01

    The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. Application of dynamic model to predict some inside environment variables in a semi-solar greenhouse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Mohammadi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Greenhouses are one of the most effective cultivation methods with a yield per cultivated area up to 10 times more than free land cultivation but the use of fossil fuels in this production field is very high. The greenhouse environment is an uncertain nonlinear system which classical modeling methods have some problems to solve it. There are many control methods, such as adaptive, feedback and intelligent control and they require a precise model. Therefore, many modeling methods have been proposed for this purpose; including physical, transfer function and black-box modeling. The objective of this paper is to modeling and experimental validation of some inside environment variables in an innovative greenhouse structure (semi-solar greenhouse. For this propose, a semi-solar greenhouse was designed and constructed at the North-West of Iran in Azerbaijan Province (38°10′N and 46°18′E with elevation of 1364 m above the sea level. The main inside environment factors include inside air temperature (Ta and inside soil temperature (Ts were collected as the experimental data samples. The dynamic heat transfer model used to estimate the temperature in two different points of semi-solar greenhouse with initial values. The results showed that dynamic model can predict the inside temperatures in two different points (Ta and Ts with RMSE, MAPE and EF about 5.3 °C, 10.2% and 0.78% and 3.45 °C, 7.7% and 0.86%, respectively. Keywords: Semi-solar greenhouse, Dynamic model, Commercial greenhouse

  14. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

    2014-01-01

    Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

  15. Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. Chapter 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugata, S.

    1997-01-01

    A quantitative evaluation of climate change such as global warming is impossible without a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials. The Center for Climate Research - National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR-NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (hereafter, GCM for a general circulation model) has been developed to obtain such a high-quality model. The emphasis of the development has been laid on the troposphere and the lower stratosphere below about 30 km altitude. This is natural because human beings live on the Earth's surface and the condition of the lower atmosphere directly affects human life. However, the stratosphere and the upper atmosphere beyond it have recently been the focus even in investigations of climate change, because they are relevant to many issues which relate closely to tropospheric climate change, such as the ozone hole, material exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and physical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. This study extended the region of the CCSR-NIES GCM to the lower mesosphere (about 70 km from the surface). This is our first attempt to investigate this GCM's climatology in the upper atmosphere, although some studies for QBO in the middle and lower stratosphere had been done with the GCM

  16. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-03-16

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO 2 , the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO 2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO 2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO 2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m 2 . For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m 2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m 2 , leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

  17. Lidar measurements of ozone and aerosol distributions during the 1992 airborne Arctic stratospheric expedition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browell, Edward V.; Butler, Carolyn F.; Fenn, Marta A.; Grant, William B.; Ismail, Syed; Carter, Arlen F.

    1994-01-01

    The NASA Langley airborne differential absorption lidar system was operated from the NASA Ames DC-8 aircraft during the 1992 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition to investigate the distribution of stratospheric aerosols and ozone (O3) across the Arctic vortex from January to March 1992. Aerosols from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption were found outside and inside the Arctic vortex with distinctly different scattering characteristics and spatial distributions in the two regions. The aerosol and O3 distributions clearly identified the edge of the vortex and provided additional information on vortex dynamics and transport processes. Few polar stratospheric clouds were observed during the AASE-2; however, those that were found had enhanced scattering and depolarization over the background Pinatubo aerosols. The distribution of aerosols inside the vortex exhibited relatively minor changes during the AASE-2. Ozone depletion inside the vortex as limited to less than or equal to 20 percent in the altitude region from 15-20 km.

  18. The simulation of stratospheric water vapor in the NH summer monsoon regions in a suite of WACCM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Tilmes, S.

    2016-12-01

    Water vapor maxima are found in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) over Asian and North America monsoon regions during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer months. High concentrations of stratospheric water vapor are associated with the upper-level anticyclonic circulation and they play an important role in the radiative forcing for the climate system. However, discrepancies in the simulation of stratospheric water vapor are found among different models. In this study, we use both observational data: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations (MLS), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and chemistry climate model outputs: different configurations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), including standard configuration of WACCM, WACCM L110, specified chemistry (SC) WACCM and specified dynamics (SD) WACCM. We find that WACCM L110 with finer vertical resolution better simulates the stratospheric water vapor maxima over the summer monsoon regions. To better understand the mechanism, we examine the simulated temperature at around 100 hPa since 100 hPa is known to act as a dehydration mechanism, i.e. the warmer the temperature, the wetter the stratospheric water vapor. We find that both WACCM L110 and SD-WACCM better simulate the temperature at 100 hPa as compared to that of MERRA2. This suggests that improving model vertical resolution and dynamical processes in the UTLS is crucial in simulating the stratospheric water vapor concentrations.

  19. Variations in the free chlorine content of the stratosphere (1991-1997): Anthropogenic, volcanic, and methane influences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froidevaux, L.; Waters, J. W.; Read, W. G.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Russell, J. M. III

    2000-01-01

    Remote sensing of chlorine monoxide (ClO) by the Microwave Limb Sounder experiment aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has provided global measurements of variations in stratospheric free chlorine for 1991-1997. Linear trends were obtained from a multiple regression analysis of this data set at low latitudes and midlatitudes. ClO increases in the upper stratosphere (2 hPa) are significantly larger than expected from trends in chlorine source gases alone. Much of the upper stratospheric ClO variability can be explained by changes in CH 4 , as measured by the UARS Halogen Occultation Experiment. Decreasing ClO in the lower stratosphere is consistent with a relaxation from a chemically perturbed state attributed to the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. (c) 2000 American Geophysical Union

  20. On the statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere in winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Graf, H.F.

    1994-01-01

    The associated anomaly patterns of the stratospheric geopotential height field and the tropospheric geopotential and temperature height fields of the northern hemisphere are determined applying the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). With this linear multivariate technique the coupled modes of variability of time series of two fields are isolated in the EOF space. The one data set is the 50 hPa geopotential field, the other set consists of different height fields of the tropospheric pressure levels (200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa) and the temperature of the 850 hPa pressure level. For the winter months (December, January, February) two natural coupled modes, a barotropic and a baroclinic one, of linear relationship between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are found. The baroclinic mode describes a connection between the strength of the stratospheric cyclonic winter vortex and the tropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The corresponding temperature pattern for an anomalously strong stratospheric cyclonic vortex is characterized by positive temperature anomalies over higher latitudes of Eurasia. These 'Winter Warmings' are observed e.g. after violent volcanic eruptions. The barotropic mode is characterized by a zonal wave number one in the lower stratosphere and by a PNA-like pattern in the troposphere. It was shown by Labitzke and van Loon (1987) that this mode can be enhanced e.g. by El Ninos via the intensification of the Aleutian low. (orig.)

  1. Tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport of carbon monoxide and long-lived trace species in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pommrich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11, CCl2F2 (CFC-12, and CO2 in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv. Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling

  2. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-06-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  3. A stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback for the stratospheric northern annular mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yueyue; Cai, Ming; Ren, Rongcai

    2017-08-01

    We consider three indices to measure the polar stratospheric mass and stratospheric meridional mass circulation variability: anomalies of (1) total mass in the polar stratospheric cap (60-90°N, above the isentropic surface 400 K, PSM), (2) total adiabatic mass transport across 60°N into the polar stratosphere cap (AMT), (3) and total diabetic mass transport across 400 K from the polar stratosphere into the troposphere below (DMT). It is confirmed that the negative stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and PSM indices have a nearly indistinguishable temporal evolution and a similar red-noise-like spectrum with a de-correlation timescale of 4 weeks. This enables us to examine the low-frequency nature of the NAM in the framework of mass circulation, namely, d/{dt}{PSM}={AMT} - {DMT} . The DMT index tends to be positively correlated with the PSM with a red-noise-like spectrum, representing slow radiative cooling processes giving rise to a de-correlation timescale of 3-4 weeks. The AMT is nearly perfectly correlated with the day-to-day tendency of PSM, reflecting a robust quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM at all frequency bands. Variations of vertically westward tilting of planetary waves contribute mainly to the high-frequency portion of AMT. It is the wave amplitude's slow vacillation that plays the leading role in the quasi 90° out-of-phase relation between the AMT and PSM. Based on this, we put forward a linear stochastic model with a low-frequency amplification feedback from low-frequency amplitude vacillations of planetary waves to explain the amplified low-frequency response of PSM/NAM to a stochastic forcing from the westward tilting variability.

  4. Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayarzagüena, B.; López-Parages, J.; Iza, M.; Calvo, N.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.

    2018-04-01

    The European precipitation response to El Niño (EN) has been found to present interdecadal changes, with alternated periods of important or negligible EN impact in late winter. These periods are associated with opposite phases of multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability, which modifies the tropospheric background and EN teleconnections. In addition, other studies have shown how SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and in particular, the location of the largest anomalous SST, modulate the stratospheric response to EN. Nevertheless, the role of the stratosphere on the stationarity of EN response has not been investigated in detail so far. Using reanalysis data, we present a comprehensive study of EN teleconnections to Europe including the role of the ocean background and the stratosphere in the stationarity of the signal. The results reveal multidecadal variability in the location of EN-related SST anomalies that determines different teleconnections. In periods with relevant precipitation signal over Europe, the EN SST pattern resembles Eastern Pacific EN and the stratospheric pathway plays a key role in transmitting the signal to Europe in February, together with two tropospheric wavetrains that transmit the signal in February and April. Conversely, the stratospheric pathway is not detected in periods with a weak EN impact on European precipitation, corresponding to EN-related SST anomalies primarily located over the central Pacific. SST mean state and its associated atmospheric background control the location of EN-related SST anomalies in different periods and modulate the establishment of the aforementioned stratospheric pathway of EN teleconnection to Europe too.

  5. Painleve Analysis and Darboux Transformation for a Variable-Coefficient Boussinesq System in Fluid Dynamics with Symbolic Computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Hongzhe; Tian Bo; Li Lili; Zhang Haiqiang

    2010-01-01

    The new soliton solutions for the variable-coefficient Boussinesq system, whose applications are seen in fluid dynamics, are studied in this paper with symbolic computation. First, the Painleve analysis is used to investigate its integrability properties. For the identified case we give, the Lax pair of the system is found, and then the Darboux transformation is constructed. At last, some new soliton solutions are presented via the Darboux method. Those solutions might be of some value in fluid dynamics. (general)

  6. Integrating factors and conservation theorems for Hamilton's canonical equations of motion of variable mass nonholonomic nonconservative dynamical systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李仁杰; 乔永芬; 刘洋

    2002-01-01

    We present a general approach to the construction of conservation laws for variable mass nonholonomic noncon-servative systems. First, we give the definition of integrating factors, and we study in detail the necessary conditionsfor the existence of the conserved quantities. Then, we establish the conservation theorem and its inverse theorem forHamilton's canonical equations of motion of variable mass nonholonomic nonconservative dynamical systems. Finally,we give an example to illustrate the application of the results.

  7. Integrating factors and conservation theorems for Hamilton‘s canonical equations of motion of variable mass nonholonmic nonconservative dynamical systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李仁杰; 刘洋; 等

    2002-01-01

    We present a general approach to the construction of conservation laws for variable mass noholonmic nonconservative systems.First,we give the definition of integrating factors,and we study in detail the necessary conditions for the existence of the conserved quantities,Then,we establish the conservatioin theorem and its inverse theorem for Hamilton's canonical equations of motion of variable mass nonholonomic nonocnservative dynamical systems.Finally,we give an example to illustrate the application of the results.

  8. Impacts of environmental variability on desiccation rate, plastic responses and population dynamics of Glossina pallidipes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleynhans, E; Clusella-Trullas, S; Terblanche, J S

    2014-02-01

    Physiological responses to transient conditions may result in costly responses with little fitness benefits, and therefore, a trade-off must exist between the speed of response and the duration of exposure to new conditions. Here, using the puparia of an important insect disease vector, Glossina pallidipes, we examine this potential trade-off using a novel combination of an experimental approach and a population dynamics model. Specifically, we explore and dissect the interactions between plastic physiological responses, treatment-duration and -intensity using an experimental approach. We then integrate these experimental results from organismal water-balance data and their plastic responses into a population dynamics model to examine the potential relative fitness effects of simulated transient weather conditions on population growth rates. The results show evidence for the predicted trade-off for plasticity of water loss rate (WLR) and the duration of new environmental conditions. When altered environmental conditions lasted for longer durations, physiological responses could match the new environmental conditions, and this resulted in a lower WLR and lower rates of population decline. At shorter time-scales however, a mismatch between acclimation duration and physiological responses was reflected by reduced overall population growth rates. This may indicate a potential fitness cost due to insufficient time for physiological adjustments to take place. The outcomes of this work therefore suggest plastic water balance responses have both costs and benefits, and these depend on the time-scale and magnitude of variation in environmental conditions. These results are significant for understanding the evolution of plastic physiological responses and changes in population abundance in the context of environmental variability. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  9. Phytoplankton biomass dynamics and environmental variables around the Rocas Atoll Biological Reserve, South Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Cavalcanti Jales

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Rocas Atoll Biological Reserve is located in the Atlantic Ocean, at 3º 51' S and 33º 49' W. It lies 143 nautical miles from the City of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil. The purpose of this study was to analyze the hydrology, water masses, currents and chlorophyll a content to determine the dynamics of phytoplankton biomass around the Rocas Atoll. Samples were collected in July 2010 in the area around the Atoll, using the Research Vessel Cruzeiro do Sul of the Brazilian Navy. Two transects were established according to the surface currents, one of which at the southeast of the Atoll (SE and the other at norwest (NW. Three collection points were determined on each of these transects. Samples were collected at different depths (surface and DCM - Deep Chlorophyll Maximum and different times (day and night. According to PCA (Principal Component Analysis, the nutrients analyzed, DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIP (dissolved inorganic phosphorus and silicate, were inversely correlated with temperature and dissolved oxygen. Most environmental variables showed a significant increase due to the turbulence on the Northwest transect. There was an increase in the concentration of chlorophyll a and nutrients when the temperature and oxygen in the mixed layer was reduced due to the influence of the SACW (South Atlantic Central Water. Despite the increase observed in some variables such as nutrient salts and chlorophyll a, the temperature in the mixed layer attained a mean value of 23.23 ºC due to the predominance of Tropical Water. The increase of the phytoplankton biomass on the NW transect was, therefore, caused by the "island effect" and not by upwelling.

  10. Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV Pathfinder

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Clean Air Act mandates NASA to monitor stratospheric ozone, and stratospheric aerosol measurements are vital to our understanding of climate.  Maintaining...

  11. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  12. Intraseasonal variability of organized convective systems in the Central Andes: Relationship to Regional Dynamical Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, K. I.; Slayback, D. A.; Nicholls, S.; Yager, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Andes extend from the west coast of Colombia (10N) to the southern tip of Chile (53S). In southern Peru and Bolivia, the Central Andes is split into separate eastern and western cordilleras, with a high plateau (≥ 3000 m), the Altiplano, between them. Because 90% of the Earth's tropical mountain glaciers are located in the Central Andes, our study focuses on this region, defining its zonal extent as 7S-21S and the meridional extent as the terrain 1000 m and greater. Although intense convection occurs during the wet season in the Altiplano, it is not included in the lists of regions with frequent or the most intense convection. The scarcity of in-situ observations with sufficient density and temporal resolution to resolve individual storms or even mesoscale-organized cloud systems and documented biases in microwave-based rainfall products in poorly gauged mountainous regions have impeded the development of an extensive literature on convection and convective systems in this region. With the tropical glaciers receding at unprecedented rates, leaving seasonal precipitation as an increasingly important input to the water balance in alpine valley ecosystems and streams, understanding the nature and characteristics of the seasonal precipitation becomes increasingly important for the rural economies in this region. Previous work in analyzing precipitation in the Central Andes has emphasized interannual variability with respect to ENSO, this is the first study to focus on shorter scale variability with respect to organized convection. The present study took advantage of the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database compiled from 14 years of TRMM observations (1998-2012), supplemented by field observations of rainfall and streamflow, historical gauge data, and long-term WRF-simulations, to analyze the intraseasonal variability of precipitating systems and their relationship regional dynamical features such as the Bolivian High. Through time series and

  13. Monitoring Spatial Variability and Temporal Dynamics of Phragmites Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor R. Tóth

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Littoral zones of freshwater lakes are exposed to environmental impacts from both terrestrial and aquatic sides, while substantial anthropogenic pressure also affects the high spatial, and temporal variability of the ecotone. In this study, the possibility of monitoring seasonal and spatial changes in reed (Phragmites australis stands using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV based remote sensing technique was examined. Stands in eutrophic and mesotrophic parts of Lake Balaton including not deteriorating (stable and deteriorating (die-back patches, were tracked throughout the growing season using a UAV equipped with a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI camera. Photophysiological parameters of P. australis were also measured with amplitude modulated fluorescence. Parameters characterizing the dynamics of seasonal changes in NDVI data were used for phenological comparison of eutrophic and mesotrophic, stable and die-back, terrestrial and aquatic, mowed and not-mowed patches of reed. It was shown that stable Phragmites plants from the eutrophic part of the lake reached specific phenological stages up to 3.5 days earlier than plants from the mesotrophic part of the lake. The phenological changes correlated with trophic (total and nitrate-nitrite nitrogen and physical (organic C and clay content properties of the sediment, while only minor relationships with air and water temperature were found. Phenological differences between the stable and die-back stands were even more pronounced, with ~34% higher rates of NDVI increase in stable than die-back patches, while the period of NDVI increase was 16 days longer. Aquatic and terrestrial parts of reed stands showed no phenological differences, although intermediate areas (shallow water parts of stands were found to be less vigorous. Winter mowing of dried Phragmites sped up sprouting and growth of reed in the spring. This study showed that remote sensing-derived photophysiological and phenological

  14. High vacuum test of the dynamic components of the cyclotron dee chamber at the 224 cm variable energy cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chintalapudi, S.N.; Bandopadhyay, D.K.; Ghosh, D.K.; Gowariker, S.R.

    1979-01-01

    The 224 cm Variable Energy Cyclotron constructed and commissioned at Calcutta comprises a number of dynamic components in the high vacuum Dee Chamber. The static and dynamic conditions of these components have to be tested for high vacuum worthiness prior to their installation in the Dee Tank. A special set up was fabricated and used for simulating the Dee Chamber conditions and testing the components. A high vacuum of the order of 1 x 10 -5 torr was achieved under both dynamic and static conditions with and without coolant hydraulic pressures. The details of the set up, methods employed for the various tests carried out and the results obtained are described. (auth.)

  15. Utilizing multiple state variables to improve the dynamic range of analog switching in a memristor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, YeonJoo; Kim, Sungho; Lu, Wei D.

    2015-01-01

    Memristors and memristive systems have been extensively studied for data storage and computing applications such as neuromorphic systems. To act as synapses in neuromorphic systems, the memristor needs to exhibit analog resistive switching (RS) behavior with incremental conductance change. In this study, we show that the dynamic range of the analog RS behavior can be significantly enhanced in a tantalum-oxide-based memristor. By controlling different state variables enabled by different physical effects during the RS process, the gradual filament expansion stage can be selectively enhanced without strongly affecting the abrupt filament length growth stage. Detailed physics-based modeling further verified the observed experimental effects and revealed the roles of oxygen vacancy drift and diffusion processes, and how the diffusion process can be selectively enhanced during the filament expansion stage. These findings lead to more desirable and reliable memristor behaviors for analog computing applications. Additionally, the ability to selectively control different internal physical processes demonstrated in the current study provides guidance for continued device optimization of memristor devices in general

  16. Transient and dynamic control of a variable speed wind turbine with synchronous generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauch, Clemens [Riso National Laboratory, Wind Energy Department, PO Box 49, DK 4000 Roskilde, (Denmark)

    2007-02-14

    In this article, a controller for dynamic and transient control of a variable speed wind turbine with a full-scale converter-connected high-speed synchronous generator is presented. First, the phenomenon of drive train oscillations in wind turbines with full-scale converter-connected generators is discussed. Based on this discussion, a controller is presented that dampens these oscillations without impacting on the power that the wind turbine injects into the grid. Since wind turbines are increasingly demanded to take over power system stabilizing and control tasks, the presented wind turbine design is further enhanced to support the grid in transient grid events. A controller is designed that allows the wind turbine to ride through transient grid faults. Since such faults often cause power system oscillations, another controller is added that enables the turbine to participate in the damping of such oscillations. It is concluded that the controllers presented keep the wind turbine stable under any operating conditions, and that they are capable of adding substantial damping to the power system. (Author).

  17. A stochastic fractional dynamics model of space-time variability of rain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Travis, James E.

    2013-09-01

    varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, which allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and time scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and on the Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to fit the second moment statistics of radar data at the smaller spatiotemporal scales. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well at these scales without any further adjustment.

  18. Implementation of a variable-step integration technique for nonlinear structural dynamic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Underwood, P.; Park, K.C.

    1977-01-01

    The paper presents the implementation of a recently developed unconditionally stable implicit time integration method into a production computer code for the transient response analysis of nonlinear structural dynamic systems. The time integrator is packaged with two significant features; a variable step size that is automatically determined and this is accomplished without additional matrix refactorizations. The equations of motion solved by the time integrator must be cast in the pseudo-force form, and this provides the mechanism for controlling the step size. Step size control is accomplished by extrapolating the pseudo-force to the next time (the predicted pseudo-force), then performing the integration step and then recomputing the pseudo-force based on the current solution (the correct pseudo-force); from this data an error norm is constructed, the value of which determines the step size for the next step. To avoid refactoring the required matrix with each step size change a matrix scaling technique is employed, which allows step sizes to change by a factor of 100 without refactoring. If during a computer run the integrator determines it can run with a step size larger than 100 times the original minimum step size, the matrix is refactored to take advantage of the larger step size. The strategy for effecting these features are discussed in detail. (Auth.)

  19. Temporal variability in phosphorus transfers: classifying concentration-discharge event dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haygarth, P.; Turner, B. L.; Fraser, A.; Jarvis, S.; Harrod, T.; Nash, D.; Halliwell, D.; Page, T.; Beven, K.

    The importance of temporal variability in relationships between phosphorus (P) concentration (Cp) and discharge (Q) is linked to a simple means of classifying the circumstances of Cp-Q relationships in terms of functional types of response. New experimental data at the upstream interface of grassland soil and catchment systems at a range of scales (lysimeters to headwaters) in England and Australia are used to demonstrate the potential of such an approach. Three types of event are defined as Types 1-3, depending on whether the relative change in Q exceeds the relative change in Cp (Type 1), whether Cp and Q are positively inter-related (Type 2) and whether Cp varies yet Q is unchanged (Type 3). The classification helps to characterise circumstances that can be explained mechanistically in relation to (i) the scale of the study (with a tendency towards Type 1 in small scale lysimeters), (ii) the form of P with a tendency for Type 1 for soluble (i.e., <0.45 μm P forms) and (iii) the sources of P with Type 3 dominant where P availability overrides transport controls. This simple framework provides a basis for development of a more complex and quantitative classification of Cp-Q relationships that can be developed further to contribute to future models of P transfer and delivery from slope to stream. Studies that evaluate the temporal dynamics of the transfer of P are currently grossly under-represented in comparison with models based on static/spatial factors.

  20. Sources and sinks of stratospheric water vapor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1979-11-01

    A tutorial review of the understanding of stratospheric H 2 O and the processes controlling it is presented. Paradoxes posed by currently available observational data are cited and suggestions made as to how they might be resolved. Such resolution appears to require: that the bulk of our current data provides unrepresentative and misleading vertical and latitudinal H 2 O gradients immediately downstream from the tropical tropopause; and, that there exists within the troposphere a mechanism different from or in addition to the tropical tropopause cold trap for drying air to the mixing ratios found in the lower stratosphere. Satisfaction of these requirements will reconcile much heretofore puzzling observational data and will obviate the necessity for a stratospheric sink for H 2 O

  1. Robustness of MEK-ERK Dynamics and Origins of Cell-to-Cell Variability in MAPK Signaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Filippi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Cellular signaling processes can exhibit pronounced cell-to-cell variability in genetically identical cells. This affects how individual cells respond differentially to the same environmental stimulus. However, the origins of cell-to-cell variability in cellular signaling systems remain poorly understood. Here, we measure the dynamics of phosphorylated MEK and ERK across cell populations and quantify the levels of population heterogeneity over time using high-throughput image cytometry. We use a statistical modeling framework to show that extrinsic noise, particularly that from upstream MEK, is the dominant factor causing cell-to-cell variability in ERK phosphorylation, rather than stochasticity in the phosphorylation/dephosphorylation of ERK. We furthermore show that without extrinsic noise in the core module, variable (including noisy signals would be faithfully reproduced downstream, but the within-module extrinsic variability distorts these signals and leads to a drastic reduction in the mutual information between incoming signal and ERK activity.

  2. How mechanical context and feedback jointly determine the use of mechanical variables in length perception by dynamic touch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menger, Rudmer; Withagen, Rob

    Earlier studies have revealed that both mechanical context and feedback determine what mechanical invariant is used to perceive length by dynamic touch. In the present article, the authors examined how these two factors jointly constrain the informational variable that is relied upon. Participants

  3. How mechanical context and feedback jointly determine the use of mechanical variables in length perception by dynamic touch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menger, Rudmer; Withagen, Rob

    2009-01-01

    Earlier studies have revealed that both mechanical context and feedback determine what mechanical invariant is used to perceive length by dynamic touch. In the present article, the authors examined how these two factors jointly constrain the informational variable that is relied upon. Participants

  4. The isotopic composition of methane in the stratosphere: high-altitude balloon sample measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Röckmann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The isotopic composition of stratospheric methane has been determined on a large suite of air samples from stratospheric balloon flights covering subtropical to polar latitudes and a time period of 16 yr. 154 samples were analyzed for δ13C and 119 samples for δD, increasing the previously published dataset for balloon borne samples by an order of magnitude, and more than doubling the total available stratospheric data (including aircraft samples published to date. The samples also cover a large range in mixing ratio from tropospheric values near 1800 ppb down to only 250 ppb, and the strong isotope fractionation processes accordingly increase the isotopic composition up to δ13C = −14‰ and δD = +190‰, the largest enrichments observed for atmospheric CH4 so far. When analyzing and comparing kinetic isotope effects (KIEs derived from single balloon profiles, it is necessary to take into account the residence time in the stratosphere in combination with the observed mixing ratio and isotope trends in the troposphere, and the range of isotope values covered by the individual profile. The isotopic composition of CH4 in the stratosphere is affected by both chemical and dynamical processes. This severely hampers interpretation of the data in terms of the relative fractions of the three important sink mechanisms (reaction with OH, O(1D and Cl. It is shown that a formal sink partitioning using the measured data severely underestimates the fraction removed by OH, which is likely due to the insensitivity of the measurements to the kinetic fractionation in the lower stratosphere. Full quantitative interpretation of the CH4 isotope data in terms of the three sink reactions requires a global model.

  5. New stratospheric UV/visible radiance measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Marceau

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available A stratospheric balloon was launched on 12 October 1986 from the "CNES" base at Aire sur l'Adour (France to record twilight radiance in the stratosphere. The near-UV and visible radiances were continuously monitored by a photometer during sunrise. Some observations are presented for different viewing azimuthal planes and viewing elevation angles. They show the influence of aerosols layers and clouds which can be also seen on related photographs. The results as a whole may be used for testing some radiative models, especially for twilight conditions.

  6. Equatorial waves in the stratosphere of Uranus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinson, David P.; Magalhaes, Julio A.

    1991-01-01

    Analyses of radio occultation data from Voyager 2 have led to the discovery and characterization of an equatorial wave in the Uranus stratosphere. The observed quasi-periodic vertical atmospheric density variations are in close agreement with theoretical predictions for a wave that propagates vertically through the observed background structure of the stratosphere. Quantitative comparisons between measurements obtained at immersion and at emersion yielded constraints on the meridional and zonal structure of the wave; the fact that the two sets of measurements are correlated suggests a wave of planetary scale. Two equatorial wave models are proposed for the wave.

  7. Cardiac parasympathetic outflow during dynamic exercise in humans estimated from power spectral analysis of P-P interval variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Makoto; Nakamoto, Tomoko; Matsukawa, Kanji; Ishii, Kei; Watanabe, Tae; Sekikawa, Kiyokazu; Hamada, Hironobu

    2016-03-01

    What is the central question of this study? Should we use the high-frequency (HF) component of P-P interval as an index of cardiac parasympathetic nerve activity during moderate exercise? What is the main finding and its importance? The HF component of P-P interval variability remained even at a heart rate of 120-140 beats min(-1) and was further reduced by atropine, indicating incomplete cardiac vagal withdrawal during moderate exercise. The HF component of R-R interval is invalid as an estimate of cardiac parasympathetic outflow during moderate exercise; instead, the HF component of P-P interval variability should be used. The high-frequency (HF) component of R-R interval variability has been widely used as an indirect estimate of cardiac parasympathetic (vagal) outflow to the sino-atrial node of the heart. However, we have recently found that the variability of the R-R interval becomes much smaller during dynamic exercise than that of the P-P interval above a heart rate (HR) of ∼100 beats min(-1). We hypothesized that cardiac parasympathetic outflow during dynamic exercise with a higher intensity may be better estimated using the HF component of P-P interval variability. To test this hypothesis, the HF components of both P-P and R-R interval variability were analysed using a Wavelet transform during dynamic exercise. Twelve subjects performed ergometer exercise to increase HR from the baseline of 69 ± 3 beats min(-1) to three different levels of 100, 120 and 140 beats min(-1). We also examined the effect of atropine sulfate on the HF components in eight of the 12 subjects during exercise at an HR of 140 beats min(-1) . The HF component of P-P interval variability was significantly greater than that of R-R interval variability during exercise, especially at the HRs of 120 and 140 beats min(-1). The HF component of P-P interval variability was more reduced by atropine than that of R-R interval variability. We conclude that cardiac parasympathetic outflow to the

  8. Asynchronous anti-noise hyper chaotic secure communication system based on dynamic delay and state variables switching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Hongjun [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Weifang Vocational College, Weifang 261041 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Zhu, Quanlong [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2011-07-18

    This Letter designs an asynchronous hyper chaotic secure communication system, which possesses high stability against noise, using dynamic delay and state variables switching to ensure the high security. The relationship between the bit error ratio (BER) and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is analyzed by simulation tests, the results show that the BER can be ensured to reach zero by proportionally adjusting the amplitudes of the state variables and the noise figure. The modules of the transmitter and receiver are implemented, and numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the system. -- Highlights: → Asynchronous anti-noise hyper chaotic secure communication system. → Dynamic delay and state switching to ensure the high security. → BER can reach zero by adjusting the amplitudes of state variables and noise figure.

  9. The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

    2012-12-01

    A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

  10. Variability induced by the MR imager in dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging of the prostate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelle, S; Zemmour, C; Bratan, F; Mège-Lechevallier, F; Ruffion, A; Colombel, M; Crouzet, S; Sarran, A; Rouvière, O

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the variability induced by the imager in discriminating high-grade (Gleason≥7) prostate cancers (HGC) using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI. We retrospectively selected 3T MRIs with temporal resolution<10 seconds and comprising T1 mapping from a prospective radiologic-pathologic database of patients treated by prostatectomy. Ktrans, Kep, Ve and Vp were calculated for each lesion seen on MRI using the Weinmann arterial input function (AIF) and three patient-specific AIFs measured in the right and left iliac arteries in pixels in the center of the lumen (psAIF-ST) or manually selected by two independent readers (psAIF-R1 and psAIF-R2). A total of 43 patients (mean age, 63.6±4.9 [SD]; range: 48-72 years) with 100 lesions on MRI (55 HGC) were selected. MRIs were performed on imager A (22 patients, 49 lesions) or B (21 patients, 51 lesions) from two different manufacturers. Using the Weinmann AIF, Kep (P=0.005), Ve (P=0.04) and Vp (P=0.01) significantly discriminated HCG. After adjusting on tissue classes, the imager significantly influenced the values of Kep (P=0.049) and Ve (P=0.007). Using patient-specific AIFs, Vp with psAIF-ST (P=0.008) and psAIF-R2 (P=0.04), and Kep with psAIF-R1 (P=0.03) significantly discriminated HGC. After adjusting on tissue classes, types of patient-specific AIF and side of measurement, the imager significantly influenced the values of Ktrans (P=0.0002), Ve (P=0.0072) and Vp (P=0.0003). For all AIFs, the diagnostic value of pharmacokinetic parameters remained unchanged after adjustment on the imager, with stable odds ratios. The imager induced variability in the absolute values of pharmacokinetic parameters but did not change their diagnostic performance. Copyright © 2018 Société française de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, Paul Martin

    2013-01-01

    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving

  12. Composite Materials With Uncured Epoxy Matrix Exposed in Stratosphere During NASA Stratospheric Balloon Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondyurin, Alexey; Kondyurina, Irina; Bilek, Marcela; de Groh, Kim K.

    2013-01-01

    A cassette of uncured composite materials with epoxy resin matrixes was exposed in the stratosphere (40 km altitude) over three days. Temperature variations of -76 to 32.5C and pressure up to 2.1 torr were recorded during flight. An analysis of the chemical structure of the composites showed, that the polymer matrix exposed in the stratosphere becomes crosslinked, while the ground control materials react by way of polymerization reaction of epoxy groups. The space irradiations are considered to be responsible for crosslinking of the uncured polymers exposed in the stratosphere. The composites were cured on Earth after landing. Analysis of the cured composites showed that the polymer matrix remains active under stratospheric conditions. The results can be used for predicting curing processes of polymer composites in a free space environment during an orbital space flight.

  13. The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, Janice E.; Turner, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40-80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60-100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

  14. The Dynamics, Ecological Variability and Estimated Carbon Stocks of Mangroves in Mahajamba Bay, Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor G. Jones

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves are found throughout the tropics, providing critical ecosystem goods and services to coastal communities and supporting rich biodiversity. Globally, mangroves are being rapidly degraded and deforested at rates exceeding loss in many tropical inland forests. Madagascar contains around 2% of the global distribution, >20% of which has been deforested since 1990, primarily from over-harvest for forest products and conversion for agriculture and aquaculture. While historically not prominent, mangrove loss in Madagascar’s Mahajamba Bay is increasing. Here, we focus on Mahajamba Bay, presenting long-term dynamics calculated using United States Geological Survey (USGS national-level mangrove maps contextualized with socio-economic research and ground observations, and the results of contemporary (circa 2011 mapping of dominant mangrove types. The analysis of the USGS data indicated 1050 hectares (3.8% lost from 2000 to 2010, which socio-economic research suggests is increasingly driven by commercial timber extraction. Contemporary mapping results permitted stratified sampling based on spectrally distinct and ecologically meaningful mangrove types, allowing for the first-ever vegetation carbon stock estimates for Mahajamba Bay. The overall mean carbon stock across all mangrove classes was estimated to be 100.97 ± 10.49 Mg C ha−1. High stature closed-canopy mangroves had the highest average carbon stock estimate (i.e., 166.82 ± 15.28 Mg C ha−1. These estimates are comparable to other published values in Madagascar and elsewhere in the Western Indian Ocean and demonstrate the ecological variability of Mahajamba Bay’s mangroves and their value towards climate change mitigation.

  15. Uncertain population dynamic and state variables of alfonsino (Beryx splendens Dinámica poblacional incierta y variables de estado en alfonsino (Beryx splendens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Wiff

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Alfonsino (Beryx splendens is a species associated with seamounts, with an important fishery in Juan Fernandez archipelago, Chile (33°40'S, 79°00'W. Since 2004, this resource has been managed by catch quotas estimated from stock assessment models. The alfonsino model involves high levels of uncertainty for several reasons including a lack of knowledge of aspects of the population dynamics and poorly informative time-series that feed the proposed evaluation models. This work evaluated three hypotheses regarding population dynamics and their influence on the main state variables (biomass, recruitment of the model using age-structured and dynamic biomass models. The hypotheses corresponded to de-recruitment of older individuals, non-linearity between standardized catch per unit effort, and population abundance as well as variations of the relative importance of length structures. According to the results, the depletion of the spawning biomass between 1998 and 2008 varied between 9 and 56%, depending on the combination of hypotheses used in the model. This indicates that state variables in alfonsino are not robust to the available information; rather, they depend strongly on the hypothesis of population dynamics. The discussion is focused on interpreting the causes of the changes in the state variables in light of a conceptual model for population dynamics in alfonsino and which pieces of information would be necessary to reduce the associated uncertainty.El alfonsino (Beryx splendens es una especie asociada a montes submarinos. En Chile sustenta una importante pesquería en el archipiélago de Juan Fernández (33°40'S, 79°00'W. Desde el año 2004, este recurso es administrado a través de cuotas anuales de capturas, las cuales son estimadas desde un modelo de evaluación de stock. La modelación de la población de alfonsino se caracteriza por una alta incertidumbre, debido a diversas fuentes, como son desconocimiento de aspectos de su din

  16. Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSmidt, Hans A.; Smith, Edward C.; Bill, Robert C.; Wang, Kon-Well

    2013-01-01

    This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean

  17. Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering

    KAUST Repository

    Robock, Alan

    2009-10-02

    Injecting sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere has been suggested as a means of geoengineering to cool the planet and reduce global warming. The decision to implement such a scheme would require a comparison of its benefits, dangers, and costs to those of other responses to global warming, including doing nothing. Here we evaluate those factors for stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols. Using existing U.S. military fighter and tanker planes, the annual costs of injecting aerosol precursors into the lower stratosphere would be several billion dollars. Using artillery or balloons to loft the gas would be much more expensive. We do not have enough information to evaluate more exotic techniques, such as pumping the gas up through a hose attached to a tower or balloon system. Anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection would cool the planet, stop the melting of sea ice and land-based glaciers, slow sea level rise, and increase the terrestrial carbon sink, but produce regional drought, ozone depletion, less sunlight for solar power, and make skies less blue. Furthermore it would hamper Earth-based optical astronomy, do nothing to stop ocean acidification, and present many ethical and moral issues. Further work is needed to quantify many of these factors to allow informed decision-making.

  18. Triton - Stratospheric molecules and organic sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, W. Reid; Singh, Sushil K.; Khare, B. N.; Sagan, Carl

    1989-01-01

    Continuous-flow plasma discharge techniques show production rates of hydrocarbons and nitriles in N2 + CH4 atmospheres appropriate to the stratosphere of Titan, and indicate that a simple eddy diffusion model together with the observed electron flux quantitatively matches the Voyager IRIS observations for all the hydrocarbons, except for the simplest ones. Charged particle chemistry is very important in Triton's stratosphere. In the more CH4-rich case of Titan, many hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in high yield. If N2 is present, the CH4 fraction is low, but hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in fair yield, abundances of HCN and C2H2 in Triton's stratosphere exceed 10 to the 19th molecules/sq cm per sec, and NCCN, C3H4, and other species are predicted to be present. These molecules may be detected by IRIS if the stratosphere is as warm as expected. Both organic haze and condensed gases will provide a substantial UV and visible opacity in Triton's atmosphere.

  19. Stratospheric tritium sampling. Final progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, A.S.; Oestlund, H.G.

    1985-09-01

    Stratospheric tritium sampling was part of Project Airstream (sponsored by the US Department of Energy) between 1975 and 1983. Data from the final deployment in November 1983 are reported here, and the results of the 9 years of effort are summarized. 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  20. Stratospheric General Circulation with Chemistry Model (SGCCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rood, Richard B.; Douglass, Anne R.; Geller, Marvin A.; Kaye, Jack A.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Stolarski, Richard S.

    1990-01-01

    In the past two years constituent transport and chemistry experiments have been performed using both simple single constituent models and more complex reservoir species models. Winds for these experiments have been taken from the data assimilation effort, Stratospheric Data Analysis System (STRATAN).

  1. The dynamic relationship between Bursa Malaysia composite index and macroeconomic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Rose, Farid Zamani Che; Rahman, Rosmanjawati Abd.

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates and analyzes the long run and short run relationships between Bursa Malaysia Composite index (KLCI) and nine macroeconomic variables in a VAR/VECM framework. After regression analysis seven out the nine macroeconomic variables are chosen for further analysis. The use of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique indicate that there are long run relationships between the seven macroeconomic variables and KLCI. Meanwhile, Granger causality test shows that bidirectional relationship between KLCI and oil price. Furthermore, after 12 months the shock on KLCI are explained by innovations of the seven macroeconomic variables. This indicate the close relationship between macroeconomic variables and KLCI.

  2. Early days in complex dynamics a history of complex dynamics in one variable during 1906-1942

    CERN Document Server

    Alexander, Daniel S; Rosa, Alessandro

    2011-01-01

    The theory of complex dynamics, whose roots lie in 19th-century studies of the iteration of complex function conducted by Kœnigs, Schröder, and others, flourished remarkably during the first half of the 20th century, when many of the central ideas and techniques of the subject developed. This book by Alexander, Iavernaro, and Rosa paints a robust picture of the field of complex dynamics between 1906 and 1942 through detailed discussions of the work of Fatou, Julia, Siegel, and several others. A recurrent theme of the authors' treatment is the center problem in complex dynamics. They present its complete history during this period and, in so doing, bring out analogies between complex dynamics and the study of differential equations, in particular, the problem of stability in Hamiltonian systems. Among these analogies are the use of iteration and problems involving small divisors which the authors examine in the work of Poincaré and others, linking them to complex dynamics, principally via the work of Samuel...

  3. Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

    2018-02-01

    Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

  4. Stratospheric experiments on curing of composite materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudinov, Viacheslav; Kondyurin, Alexey; Svistkov, Alexander L.; Efremov, Denis; Demin, Anton; Terpugov, Viktor; Rusakov, Sergey

    2016-07-01

    Future space exploration requires a large light-weight structure for habitats, greenhouses, space bases, space factories and other constructions. A new approach enabling large-size constructions in space relies on the use of the technology of polymerization of fiber-filled composites with a curable polymer matrix applied in the free space environment on Erath orbit. In orbit, the material is exposed to high vacuum, dramatic temperature changes, plasma of free space due to cosmic rays, sun irradiation and atomic oxygen (in low Earth orbit), micrometeorite fluence, electric charging and microgravitation. The development of appropriate polymer matrix composites requires an understanding of the chemical processes of polymer matrix curing under the specific free space conditions to be encountered. The goal of the stratospheric flight experiment is an investigation of the effect of the stratospheric conditions on the uncured polymer matrix of the composite material. The unique combination of low residual pressure, high intensity UV radiation including short-wave UV component, cosmic rays and other aspects associated with solar irradiation strongly influences the chemical processes in polymeric materials. We have done the stratospheric flight experiments with uncured composites (prepreg). A balloon with payload equipped with heater, temperature/pressure/irradiation sensors, microprocessor, carrying the samples of uncured prepreg has been launched to stratosphere of 25-30 km altitude. After the flight, the samples have been tested with FTIR, gel-fraction, tensile test and DMA. The effect of cosmic radiation has been observed. The composite was successfully cured during the stratospheric flight. The study was supported by RFBR grants 12-08-00970 and 14-08-96011.

  5. A Nonlinear Mixed Effects Approach for Modeling the Cell-To-Cell Variability of Mig1 Dynamics in Yeast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Almquist

    Full Text Available The last decade has seen a rapid development of experimental techniques that allow data collection from individual cells. These techniques have enabled the discovery and characterization of variability within a population of genetically identical cells. Nonlinear mixed effects (NLME modeling is an established framework for studying variability between individuals in a population, frequently used in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, but its potential for studies of cell-to-cell variability in molecular cell biology is yet to be exploited. Here we take advantage of this novel application of NLME modeling to study cell-to-cell variability in the dynamic behavior of the yeast transcription repressor Mig1. In particular, we investigate a recently discovered phenomenon where Mig1 during a short and transient period exits the nucleus when cells experience a shift from high to intermediate levels of extracellular glucose. A phenomenological model based on ordinary differential equations describing the transient dynamics of nuclear Mig1 is introduced, and according to the NLME methodology the parameters of this model are in turn modeled by a multivariate probability distribution. Using time-lapse microscopy data from nearly 200 cells, we estimate this parameter distribution according to the approach of maximizing the population likelihood. Based on the estimated distribution, parameter values for individual cells are furthermore characterized and the resulting Mig1 dynamics are compared to the single cell times-series data. The proposed NLME framework is also compared to the intuitive but limited standard two-stage (STS approach. We demonstrate that the latter may overestimate variabilities by up to almost five fold. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations of the inferred population model are used to predict the distribution of key characteristics of the Mig1 transient response. We find that with decreasing levels of post-shift glucose, the transient

  6. Annual dynamics of daylight variability and contrast a simulation-based approach to quantifying visual effects in architecture

    CERN Document Server

    Rockcastle, Siobhan

    2013-01-01

    Daylight is a dynamic source of illumination in architectural space, creating diverse and ephemeral configurations of light and shadow within the built environment. Perceptual qualities of daylight, such as contrast and temporal variability, are essential to our understanding of both material and visual effects in architecture. Although spatial contrast and light variability are fundamental to the visual experience of architecture, architects still rely primarily on intuition to evaluate their designs because there are few metrics that address these factors. Through an analysis of contemporary

  7. The Nile floodplain, hydroclimatic variability, and its relation with cultural dynamics in ancient Thebes (Luxor, Egypt)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toonen, Willem H. J.; Graham, Angus; Pennington, Ben; Hunter, Morag; Strutt, Kris; Barker, Dominic; Masson, Aurelia; Emery, Virginia

    2016-04-01

    were contemporary. The abundance of ceramic material also allowed the reconstruction of sedimentation rates across the floodplain, which ranged between 0.8-2.2 mm/yr, largely in agreement with estimates from other studies. Importantly, there seems to have been a major decrease in sedimentation rates after the New Kingdom. Furthermore, the abandonment of the secondary channel of the Nile and the formation of a well-developed calcareous palaeosol (both of which could have been forced by drought and failing Nile floods) correlate with the demise of the New Kingdom. This suggests that regionally observed cultural and natural dynamics may have been driven by hydroclimatic variability in the larger Nile basin. A lower calcareous palaeosol, located at least 1m below the New Kingdom horizon, hints at a previous period of severe drought and its age is tentatively inferred as Old Kingdom. The age of this lower palaeosol needs to be confirmed by more precise dating, but could support the idea that cultural dynamics in ancient floodwater farming cultures are strongly linked to hydroclimatic change.

  8. Mesoscale dynamics in the Lofoten Basin - a sub-Arctic "hot spot" of oceanic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volkov, D. L.; Belonenko, T. V.; Foux, V. R.

    2012-12-01

    A sub-Arctic "hot spot" of intense mesoscale variability is observed in the Lofoten Basin (LB) - a topographic depression with a maximum depth of about 3250 m, located in the Norwegian Sea. The standard deviation of sea surface height (SSH), measured with satellite altimetry, reaches nearly 15 cm in the center of the basin (Figure 1a). Using a space-time lagged correlation analysis of altimetry data, we discover a cyclonic propagation of the mesoscale SSH anomalies around the center of the LB with time-averaged phase speeds of 2-4 km/day, strongly linked to bottom topography (Figure 1c). The fact that surface drifter trajectories do not exhibit cyclonic circulation in the LB (Figure 1b) suggests that, at least in the upper ocean, satellite altimetry observes only the propagation of form without the corresponding transfer of mass. Linearly propagating wavelike disturbances that do not trap fluid inside are related to planetary or Rossby waves. Variations in topography may lead to the concentration of wave energy in certain regions or wave trapping. The dispersion analysis suggests that the observed wavelike cyclonic propagation of SSH anomalies in the LB is the manifestation of baroclinic topographic Rossby waves, that we term "the basin waves" in order to distinguish them from the other types of topographic waves, such as shelf or trench waves. We identify two modes of basin waves in the LB: a di-pole mode and a quadri-pole mode. The wavelength of each mode is about 500 km. The frequency of these modes is not constant and the phase speed varies from about 2 to 8 km/day. We show that the cyclonically rotating basin waves are responsible for the observed amplification of SSH variability in the LB. Because the baroclinic basin waves in the LB are probably associated with large vertical displacements of the thermocline and due to possible wave breaking events, they can play an important role in the mixing of the inflowing Atlantic Water with ambient water masses

  9. Dynamic variable selection in SNP genotype autocalling from APEX microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zamar Ruben H

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs are DNA sequence variations, occurring when a single nucleotide – adenine (A, thymine (T, cytosine (C or guanine (G – is altered. Arguably, SNPs account for more than 90% of human genetic variation. Our laboratory has developed a highly redundant SNP genotyping assay consisting of multiple probes with signals from multiple channels for a single SNP, based on arrayed primer extension (APEX. This mini-sequencing method is a powerful combination of a highly parallel microarray with distinctive Sanger-based dideoxy terminator sequencing chemistry. Using this microarray platform, our current genotype calling system (known as SNP Chart is capable of calling single SNP genotypes by manual inspection of the APEX data, which is time-consuming and exposed to user subjectivity bias. Results Using a set of 32 Coriell DNA samples plus three negative PCR controls as a training data set, we have developed a fully-automated genotyping algorithm based on simple linear discriminant analysis (LDA using dynamic variable selection. The algorithm combines separate analyses based on the multiple probe sets to give a final posterior probability for each candidate genotype. We have tested our algorithm on a completely independent data set of 270 DNA samples, with validated genotypes, from patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU of St. Paul's Hospital (plus one negative PCR control sample. Our method achieves a concordance rate of 98.9% with a 99.6% call rate for a set of 96 SNPs. By adjusting the threshold value for the final posterior probability of the called genotype, the call rate reduces to 94.9% with a higher concordance rate of 99.6%. We also reversed the two independent data sets in their training and testing roles, achieving a concordance rate up to 99.8%. Conclusion The strength of this APEX chemistry-based platform is its unique redundancy having multiple probes for a single SNP. Our

  10. Major Influence of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer During the Last Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernier, Jean-Paul; Thomason, Larry W.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Bourassa, Adam; Pelon, Jacques; Garnier, Anne; Hauchecorne, A.; Blanot, L.; Trepte, Charles R.; Degenstein, Doug; hide

    2011-01-01

    The variability of stratospheric aerosol loading between 1985 and 2010 is explored with measurements from SAGE II, CALIPSO, GOMOS/ENVISAT, and OSIRIS/Odin space-based instruments. We find that, following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, stratospheric aerosol levels increased by as much as two orders of magnitude and only reached background levels between 1998 and 2002. From 2002 onwards, a systematic increase has been reported by a number of investigators. Recently, the trend, based on ground-based lidar measurements, has been tentatively attributed to an increase of SO2 entering the stratosphere associated with coal burning in Southeast Asia. However, we demonstrate with these satellite measurements that the observed trend is mainly driven by a series of moderate but increasingly intense volcanic eruptions primarily at tropical latitudes. These events injected sulfur directly to altitudes between 18 and 20 km. The resulting aerosol particles are slowly lofted into the middle stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation and are eventually transported to higher latitudes.

  11. An Energy-Based State Observer for Dynamical Subsystems with Inaccessible State Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khalil, I.S.M.; Sabanovic, Asif; Misra, Sarthak

    2012-01-01

    This work presents an energy-based state estimation formalism for a class of dynamical systems with inaccessible/unknown outputs, and systems at which sensor utilization is impractical, or when measurements can not be taken. The power-conserving physical interconnections among most of the dynamical

  12. Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraro, Angus J; Griffiths, Hannah G

    2016-01-01

    The reduction in global-mean precipitation when stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is used to counterbalance global warming from increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations has been mainly attributed to the temperature-independent effect of CO 2 on atmospheric radiative cooling. We demonstrate here that stratospheric sulphate aerosol itself also acts to reduce global-mean precipitation independent of its effects on temperature. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoenginering on global-mean precipitation is calculated by removing temperature-dependent effects from climate model simulations of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). When sulphate aerosol is injected into the stratosphere at a rate of 5 Tg SO 2 per year the aerosol reduces global-mean precipitation by approximately 0.2 %, though multiple ensemble members are required to separate this effect from internal variability. For comparison, the precipitation reduction from the temperature-independent effect of increasing CO 2 concentrations under the RCP4.5 scenario of the future is approximately 0.5 %. The temperature-independent effect of stratospheric sulphate aerosol arises from the aerosol’s effect on tropospheric radiative cooling. Radiative transfer calculations show this is mainly due to increasing downward emission of infrared radiation by the aerosol, but there is also a contribution from the stratospheric warming the aerosol causes. Our results suggest climate model simulations of solar dimming can capture the main features of the global-mean precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

  13. Molecular Dynamics of Flexible Polar Cations in a Variable Confined Space: Toward Exceptional Two-Step Nonlinear Optical Switches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wei-Jian; He, Chun-Ting; Ji, Cheng-Min; Chen, Shao-Li; Huang, Rui-Kang; Lin, Rui-Biao; Xue, Wei; Luo, Jun-Hua; Zhang, Wei-Xiong; Chen, Xiao-Ming

    2016-07-01

    The changeable molecular dynamics of flexible polar cations in the variable confined space between inorganic chains brings about a new type of two-step nonlinear optical (NLO) switch with genuine "off-on-off" second harmonic generation (SHG) conversion between one NLO-active state and two NLO-inactive states. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. Neuromorphic Implementation of Attractor Dynamics in a Two-Variable Winner-Take-All Circuit with NMDARs: A Simulation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Hongzhi; Wang, Da-Hui

    2017-01-01

    Neural networks configured with winner-take-all (WTA) competition and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR)-mediated synaptic dynamics are endowed with various dynamic characteristics of attractors underlying many cognitive functions. This paper presents a novel method for neuromorphic implementation of a two-variable WTA circuit with NMDARs aimed at implementing decision-making, working memory and hysteresis in visual perceptions. The method proposed is a dynamical system approach of circuit synthesis based on a biophysically plausible WTA model. Notably, slow and non-linear temporal dynamics of NMDAR-mediated synapses was generated. Circuit simulations in Cadence reproduced ramping neural activities observed in electrophysiological recordings in experiments of decision-making, the sustained activities observed in the prefrontal cortex during working memory, and classical hysteresis behavior during visual discrimination tasks. Furthermore, theoretical analysis of the dynamical system approach illuminated the underlying mechanisms of decision-making, memory capacity and hysteresis loops. The consistence between the circuit simulations and theoretical analysis demonstrated that the WTA circuit with NMDARs was able to capture the attractor dynamics underlying these cognitive functions. Their physical implementations as elementary modules are promising for assembly into integrated neuromorphic cognitive systems.

  15. Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Sean M.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Dragani, Rossana; Harada, Yayoi; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Long, Craig; Manney, Gloria L.; Nash, Eric R.; Potter, Gerald L.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Wang, Tao; Wargan, Krzysztof; Wright, Jonathon S.

    2017-10-01

    Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that

  16. Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

    2017-12-01

    This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

  17. Fire-regime variability impacts forest carbon dynamics for centuries to millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, Tara W.; Higuera, Philip E.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2017-08-01

    Wildfire is a dominant disturbance agent in forest ecosystems, shaping important biogeochemical processes including net carbon (C) balance. Long-term monitoring and chronosequence studies highlight a resilience of biogeochemical properties to large, stand-replacing, high-severity fire events. In contrast, the consequences of repeated fires or temporal variability in a fire regime (e.g., the characteristic timing or severity of fire) are largely unknown, yet theory suggests that such variability could strongly influence forest C trajectories (i.e., future states or directions) for millennia. Here we combine a 4500-year paleoecological record of fire activity with ecosystem modeling to investigate how fire-regime variability impacts soil C and net ecosystem carbon balance. We found that C trajectories in a paleo-informed scenario differed significantly from an equilibrium scenario (with a constant fire return interval), largely due to variability in the timing and severity of past fires. Paleo-informed scenarios contained multi-century periods of positive and negative net ecosystem C balance, with magnitudes significantly larger than observed under the equilibrium scenario. Further, this variability created legacies in soil C trajectories that lasted for millennia. Our results imply that fire-regime variability is a major driver of C trajectories in stand-replacing fire regimes. Predicting carbon balance in these systems, therefore, will depend strongly on the ability of ecosystem models to represent a realistic range of fire-regime variability over the past several centuries to millennia.

  18. Effects of Greenhouse Gas Increase and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion on Stratospheric Mean Age of Air in 1960-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Newman, P. A.; Pawson, S.; Perlwitz, J.

    2017-12-01

    The strength of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in a changing climate has been extensively studied, but the relative importance of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and stratospheric ozone depletion in driving the BDC changes remains uncertain. This study separates the impacts of GHG and stratospheric ozone forcings on stratospheric mean age of air in the 1960-2010 period using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM). The experiment compares a set of controlled simulations using a coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the GEOS CCM, in which either GHGs, or stratospheric ozone, or both factors evolve over time. The model results show that GHGs and stratospheric ozone have about equal contributions to the simulated mean age decrease. It is also found that GHG increases account for about two thirds of the enhanced strength of the lower stratospheric residual circulation. The results show that ozone depletion causes an increase in the mean age of air in the Antarctic summer lower stratosphere through two processes: 1) a seasonal delay in the Antarctic polar vortex breakup, that inhibits young mid-latitude air from mixing with the older air inside the vortex; and 2) enhanced Antarctic downwelling, that brings older air from middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere.

  19. Sensitivity analysis of dynamic characteristic of the fixture based on design variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dongsheng; Nong Shaoning; Zhang Sijian; Ren Wanfa

    2002-01-01

    The research on the sensitivity analysis is dealt with of structural natural frequencies to structural design parameters. A typical fixture for vibration test is designed. Using I-DEAS Finite Element programs, the sensitivity of its natural frequency to design parameters is analyzed by Matrix Perturbation Method. The research result shows that the sensitivity analysis is a fast and effective dynamic re-analysis method to dynamic design and parameters modification of complex structures such as fixtures

  20. The Dynamic Multiprocess Framework: Evidence from Prospective Memory with Contextual Variability

    OpenAIRE

    Scullin, Michael K.; McDaniel, Mark A.; Shelton, Jill Talley

    2013-01-01

    The ability to remember to execute delayed intentions is referred to as prospective memory. Previous theoretical and empirical work has focused on isolating whether a particular prospective memory task is supported either by effortful monitoring processes or by cue-driven spontaneous processes. In the present work, we advance the Dynamic Multiprocess Framework, which contends that both monitoring and spontaneous retrieval may be utilized dynamically to support prospective remembering. To capt...

  1. Dynamical Mechanisms and Variability of Dry and Wet Spells in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Montero, Irene; Gouveia, Célia

    2014-05-01

    Dry and wet spells in Iberia have widespread ecological and environmental negative impacts resulting in major socioeconomic damages such as crop yield losses or increasing forest fire risk [Gouveia et al. 2009; Amraoui et al. 2013] and flash flooding, urban inundations, landslides and associated human and infrastructure damages [Liberato et al. 2013]. The 20th century was characterized by a negative trend on precipitation and a positive trend on temperature in southern Europe. On the other hand recent results suggest that there are opposite tendencies in the duration of wet and dry spells over the Iberia. At the monthly and seasonal scales, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAN) patterns are important large-scale variability modes that control the Iberian precipitation regime. The NAO modulates the westerly atmospheric flow by shifting the polar jet and the associated storm-tracks. At the sub-monthly scale, extratropical cyclones have a significant impact on Iberian climate and are one of the primary causes of extreme events occurrence over the region [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this work we investigate the connection between midlatitude cyclones and the onset and recurrent character of droughts, heavy precipitation and spell duration in Iberia. Our results confirm the links between unusual circulation patterns with these extreme events. Moreover we show how the frequency on the occurrence of extratropical cyclones on the Euro-Atlantic region is critical in explaining the tails of the precipitation distribution in Iberia. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAG-GLO/4155/2012). References: Amraoui M., M. L. R. Liberato, T. J. Calado, C. C. DaCamara, L. P. Coelho, R. M. Trigo, C. M. Gouveia (2013) Fire activity over Mediterranean Europe based on information from Meteosat-8. Forest

  2. The stratospheric ozone and the ozone layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez Jesus Antonio

    2000-01-01

    An overview is presented of the principal characteristics of the stratospheric ozone in the Earth's atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the tropics and the ozone hole over the poles. Some effects produced in the atmosphere as a consequence of the different human activities will be described, and some data on stratospheric ozone will be shown. We point out the existence of a nucleus of least ozone in the tropics, stretching from South America to central Africa, with annual mean values less than 240 DU, a value lower than in the middle latitudes and close to the mean values at the South Pole. The existence of such a minimum is confirmed by mean values from measurements made on satellites or with earthbound instruments, for different sectors in Colombia, like Medellin, Bogota and Leticia

  3. Effects of intense stratospheric ionisation events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, G.C.; McAfee, J.R.; Crutzen, P.J.

    1978-01-01

    High levels of ionising radiation in the Earth's stratosphere will lead to increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides and decreased concentrations of ozone. Changes in the surface environment will include an increased level, of biologically harmful UV radiation, caused by the ozone depletion, and a decreased level of visible solar radiation, due to the presence of major enhancements in the stratospheric concentration of nitrogen dioxide. These changes have been studied quantitatively, using the passage of the Solar System through a supernova remnant shell as an example. Some of the potential environmental changes are a substantial global cooling, abnormally dry conditions, a reduction in global photosynthesis and a large increase in the flux of atmospheric fixed nitrogen to the surface of the Earth. Such events might have been the cause of mass extinctions in the distant past. (Author)

  4. Variability of dynamic source parameters inferred from kinematic models of past earthquakes

    KAUST Repository

    Causse, M.

    2013-12-24

    We analyse the scaling and distribution of average dynamic source properties (fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops) using 31 kinematic inversion models from 21 crustal earthquakes. Shear-stress histories are computed by solving the elastodynamic equations while imposing the slip velocity of a kinematic source model as a boundary condition on the fault plane. This is achieved using a 3-D finite difference method in which the rupture kinematics are modelled with the staggered-grid-split-node fault representation method of Dalguer & Day. Dynamic parameters are then estimated from the calculated stress-slip curves and averaged over the fault plane. Our results indicate that fracture energy, static, dynamic and apparent stress drops tend to increase with magnitude. The epistemic uncertainty due to uncertainties in kinematic inversions remains small (ϕ ∼ 0.1 in log10 units), showing that kinematic source models provide robust information to analyse the distribution of average dynamic source parameters. The proposed scaling relations may be useful to constrain friction law parameters in spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations for earthquake source studies, and physics-based near-source ground-motion prediction for seismic hazard and risk mitigation.

  5. Stratospheric ozone: an introduction to its study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolet, M.

    1975-01-01

    An analysis is made of the various reactions in which ozone and atomic oxygen are involved in the stratosphere. At the present time, hydrogen, nitrogen, and chlorine compounds in the ranges parts per million, parts per billion, and parts per trillion may have significant chemical effects. In the upper stratosphere, above the ozone peak, where there is no strong departure from photochemical equilibrium conditions, the action of hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl radicals of nitrogen dioxide and chlorine monoxide on atomic oxygen and of atomic chlorine on ozone can be introduced. A precise determination of their exact effects requires knowledge of the vertical distribution of the H 2 O, CH 4 , and H 2 dissociation by reaction of these molecules with electronically excited oxygen atom O( 1 D); the ratio of the OH and HO 2 concentrations and their absolute values, which depend on insufficiently known rate coefficients; the various origins of nitric oxide production, with their vertical distributions related to latitude and season; and the various sources giving different chlorine compounds that may be dissociated in the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, below the ozone peak, there is no important photochemical production of O 3 , but there exist various possibilities of transport. The predictability of the action of chemical reactions depends strongly on important interactions between OH and HO 2 radicals with CO and NO, respectively, which affect the ratio n(OH)/n(HO 2 ) at the tropopause level; between OH and NO 2 , which lead to the formation of nitric acid with its downward transport toward the troposphere; between NO and HO 2 , which lead to NO 2 and its subsequent photodissociation; between ClO and NO, which also lead to NO 2 and become more important than the reaction of ClO with O; and between Cl and various molecules, such as CH 4 and H 2 , which lead to HCl with its downward transportation toward the troposphere

  6. Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition II: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, James G.; Toon, Owen B.

    1993-11-01

    The sudden onset of ozone depletion in the antarctic vortex set a precedent for both the time scale and the severity of global change. The Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE), staged from Punta Arenas, Chile, in 1987, established that CFCs, halons, and methyl bromide, the dominant sources of chlorine and bromine radicals in the stratosphere, control the rate of ozone destruction over the Antarctic; that the vortex is depleted in reactive nitrogen and water vapor; and that diabatic cooling during the Antarctic winter leads to subsidence within the vortex core, importing air from higher altitudes and lower latitudes. This last conclusion is based on observed dramatic distortion in the tracer fields, most notably N2O.In 1989, the first Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-I), staged from Stavanger, Norway, and using the same aircraft employed for AAOE (the NASA ER-2 and the NASA DC-8), discovered that while NOx and to some degree NOy were perturbed within the arctic vortex, there was little evidence for desiccation. Under these (in contrast to the antarctic) marginally perturbed conditions, however, ClO was found to be dramatically enhanced such that a large fraction of the available (inorganic) chlorine resided in the form of ClO and its dimer ClOOCl.This leaves two abiding issues for the northern hemisphere and the mission of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE-II): (1) Will significant ozone erosion occur within the arctic vortex in the next ten years as chlorine loading in the stratosphere exceeds four parts per billion by volume? (2) Which mechanisms are responsible for the observed ozone erosion poleward of 30°N in the winter/spring northern hemisphere reported in satellite observations?

  7. Vertical sounding balloons for stratospheric photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommereau, J. P.

    The use of vertical sounding balloons for stratospheric photochemistry studies is illustrated by the use of a vertical piloted gas balloon for the search of NO2 diurnal variations. It is shown that the use of montgolfieres (hot air balloons) can enhance the vertical sounding technique. Particular attention is given to a sun-heated montgolfiere and to the more sophisticated infrared montgolfiere that is able to perform three to four vertical excursions per day and to remain aloft for weeks or months.

  8. Stratospheric chlorine: Blaming it on nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taube, G.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the bitter public debate over ozone depletion has centered on the claim that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) pale into insignificance alongside natural sources of chlorine in the stratosphere. If so, goes the argument, chlorine could not be depleting ozone as atmospheric scientists claim, because the natural sources have been around since time immemorial, and the ozone layer is still there. The claim, put forward in a book by Rogelio Maduro and Ralf Schauerhammer, has since been touted by former Atomic Energy Commissioner Dixy Lee Ray and talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, and it forms the basis of much of the backlash now being felt by atmospheric scientists. The argument is simple: Maduro and Schauerhammer calculate that 600 million tons of chlorine enters the atmosphere annually from seawater, 36 million tons from volcanoes, 8.4 million tons from biomass burning, and 5 million tons from ocean biota. In contrast, CFCs account for a mere 750,000 tons of atmospheric chlorine a year. Besides disputing the numbers, scientists have both theoretical and observational bases for doubting that much of this chlorine is getting into the stratosphere, where it could affect the ozone layer. Linwood Callis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Langley Research Center points out one crucial problem with the argument: Chlorine from natural sources is soluble, and so it gets rained out of the lower atmosphere. CFCs, in contrast, are insoluble and inert and thus make it to the stratosphere to release their chlorine. What's more, observations of stratospheric chemistry don't support the idea that natural sources are contributing much to the chlorine there

  9. Aerosol-associated changes in tropical stratospheric ozone following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, William B.; Browell, Edward V.; Fishman, Jack; Brackett, Vincent G.; Veiga, Robert E.; Nganga, Dominique; Minga, A.; Cros, Bernard; Butler, Carolyn F.; Fenn, Marta A.

    1994-01-01

    The large amount of sulfuric acid aerosol formed in the stratosphere by conversion of sulfur dioxide emitted by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (15.14 deg N, 120.35 deg E) in the Philippines around June 15, 1991, has had a pronounced effect on lower stratospheric ozone in the tropics. Measurements of stratospheric ozone in the tropics using electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) sondes before and after the eruption and the airborne UV differential absorption lidar (DIAL) system after the eruption are compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) measurements from several years before the eruption and ECC sonde measurements from the year prior to the eruption to determine the resulting changes. Ozone decreases of up to 33 % compared with SAGE II climatological values were found to be directly correlated with altitude regions of enhanced aerosol loading in the 16- to 28-km range. A maximum partial-column decrease of 29 +/- Dobson units (DU) was found over the 16- to 28-km range in September 1991 along with small increases (to 5.9 +/- 2 DU) from 28 to 31.5 km. A large decrease of ozone was also found at 4 deg to 8 deg S from May to August 1992, with a maximum decrease of 33 +/- 7 DU found above Brazzaville in July. Aerosol data form the visible channel of the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the visible wavelength of the UV DIAL system were used to examine the relationship between aerosol (surface area) densities and ozone changes. The tropical stratospheric ozone changes we observed in 1991 and 1992 are likely be explained by a combination of dynamical (vertical transport) perturbations, radiative perturbations on ozone photochemistry, and heterogeneous chemistry.

  10. Equatorial Oscillation and Planetary Wave Activity in Saturn's Stratosphere Through the Cassini Epoch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerlet, S.; Fouchet, T.; Spiga, A.; Flasar, F. M.; Fletcher, L. N.; Hesman, B. E.; Gorius, N.

    2018-01-01

    Thermal infrared spectra acquired by Cassini/Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS) in limb-viewing geometry in 2015 are used to derive 2-D latitude-pressure temperature and thermal wind maps. These maps are used to study the vertical structure and evolution of Saturn's equatorial oscillation (SEO), a dynamical phenomenon presenting similarities with the Earth's quasi-biennal oscillation (QBO) and semi-annual oscillation (SAO). We report that a new local wind maximum has appeared in 2015 in the upper stratosphere and derive the descent rates of other wind extrema through time. The phase of the oscillation observed in 2015, as compared to 2005 and 2010, remains consistent with a ˜15 year period. The SEO does not propagate downward at a regular rate but exhibits faster descent rate in the upper stratosphere, combined with a greater vertical wind shear, compared to the lower stratosphere. Within the framework of a QBO-type oscillation, we estimate the absorbed wave momentum flux in the stratosphere to be on the order of ˜7 × 10-6 N m-2. On Earth, interactions between vertically propagating waves (both planetary and mesoscale) and the mean zonal flow drive the QBO and SAO. To broaden our knowledge on waves potentially driving Saturn's equatorial oscillation, we searched for thermal signatures of planetary waves in the tropical stratosphere using CIRS nadir spectra. Temperature anomalies of amplitude 1-4 K and zonal wave numbers 1 to 9 are frequently observed, and an equatorial Rossby (n = 1) wave of zonal wave number 3 is tentatively identified in November 2009.

  11. An Atlantic streamer in stratospheric ozone observations and SD-WACCM simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocke, Klemens; Schranz, Franziska; Maillard Barras, Eliane; Moreira, Lorena; Kämpfer, Niklaus

    2017-03-01

    Observation and simulation of individual ozone streamers are important for the description and understanding of non-linear transport processes in the middle atmosphere. A sudden increase in mid-stratospheric ozone occurred above central Europe on 4 December 2015. The GROund-based Millimeter-wave Ozone Spectrometer (GROMOS) and the Stratospheric Ozone MOnitoring RAdiometer (SOMORA) in Switzerland measured an ozone enhancement of about 30 % at 34 km altitude (8.3 hPa) from 1 to 4 December. A similar ozone increase is simulated by the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate (SD-WACCM) model. Further, the global ozone fields at 34 km altitude (8.3 hPa) from SD-WACCM and the satellite experiment Aura/MLS show a remarkable agreement for the location and timing of an ozone streamer (large-scale tongue-like structure) extending from the subtropics in northern America over the Atlantic to central Europe. This agreement indicates that SD-WACCM can inform us about the wind inside the Atlantic ozone streamer. SD-WACCM shows an eastward wind of about 100 m s-1 inside the Atlantic streamer in the mid-stratosphere. SD-WACCM shows that the Atlantic streamer flows along the edge of the polar vortex. The Atlantic streamer turns southward at an erosion region of the polar vortex located above the Caspian Sea. The spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour indicates a filament outgoing from this erosion region. The Atlantic streamer, the polar vortex erosion region and the water vapour filament belong to the process of planetary wave breaking in the so-called surf zone of the northern midlatitude winter stratosphere.

  12. High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.

  13. The impact of land use change and hydroclimatic variability on landscape connectivity dynamics across surface water networks at subcontinental scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulbure, M. G.; Bishop-Taylor, R.; Broich, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land use (LU) change and hydroclimatic variability affect spatiotemporal landscape connectivity dynamics, important for species movement and dispersal. Despite the fact that LU change can strongly influence dispersal potential over time, prior research has only focused on the impacts of dynamic changes in the distribution of potential habitats. We used 8 time-steps of historical LU together with a Landsat-derived time-series of surface water habitat dynamics (1986-2011) over the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a region with extreme hydroclimatic variability, impacted by LU changes. To assess how changing LU and hydroclimatic variability affect landscape connectivity across time, we compared 4 scenarios, namely one where both climate and LU are dynamic over time, one where climate is kept steady (i.e. a median surface water extent layer), and two scenarios where LU is kept steady (i.e. resistance values associated with the most recent or the first LU layer). We used circuit theory to assign landscape features with `resistance' costs and graph theory network analysis, with surface water habitats as `nodes' connected by dispersal paths or `edges' Findings comparing a dry and an average season show high differences in number of nodes (14581 vs 21544) and resistance distances. The combined effect of LU change and landscape wetness was lower than expected, likely a function of the large, MDB-wide, aggregation scale. Spatially explicit analyses are expected to identify areas where the synergistic effect of LU change and landscape wetness greatly reduce or increase landscape connectivity, as well as areas where the two effects cancel each other out.

  14. Dynamic sensorimotor planning during long-term sequence learning: the role of variability, response chunking and planning errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning.

  15. Stratospheric measurements of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases using AirCores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laube, Johannes; Leedham Elvidge, Emma; Kaiser, Jan; Sturges, Bill; Heikkinen, Pauli; Laurila, Tuomas; Hatakka, Juha; Kivi, Rigel; Chen, Huilin; Fraser, Paul; van der Veen, Carina; Röckmann, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Retrieving air samples from the stratosphere has previously required aircraft or large balloons, both of which are expensive to operate. The novel "AirCore" technique (Karion et al., 2010) enables stratospheric sampling using weather balloons, which is much more cost effective. AirCores are long (up to 200 m) stainless steel tubes which are placed as a payload on a small balloon, can ascend to over 30 km and fill upon descent, collecting a vertical profile of the atmosphere. Retrieved volumes are much smaller though, which presents a challenge for trace gas analysis. To date, only the more abundant trace gases such as carnon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) have been quantified in AirCores. Halogenated trace gases are also important greenhouse gases and many also deplete stratospheric ozone. Their concentrations are however much lower i.e. typically in the part per trillion (ppt) molar range. We here present the first stratospheric measurements of halocarbons in AirCores obtained using UEA's highly sensitive (detection limits of 0.01-0.1 ppt in 10 ml of air) gas chromatography mass spectrometry system. The analysed air originates from a Stratospheric Air Sub-sampler (Mrozek et al., 2016) which collects AirCore segments after the non-destructive CO2 and CH4 analysis. Successfully measured species include CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-115, H-1211, H-1301, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HCFC-133a, and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). We compare the observed mixing ratios and precisions with data obtained from samples collected during various high-altitude aircraft campaigns between 2009 and 2016 as well as with southern hemisphere tropospheric long-term trends. As part of the ERC-funded EXC3ITE (EXploring stratospheric Composition, Chemistry and Circulation with Innovative Techniques) project more than 40 AirCore flights are planned in the next 3 years with an expanded range of up to 30 gases in order to explore seasonal and interannual variability in the stratosphere

  16. Variable-angle epifluorescence microscopy characterizes protein dynamics in the vicinity of plasma membrane in plant cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tong; Ji, Dongchao; Tian, Shiping

    2018-03-14

    The assembly of protein complexes and compositional lipid patterning act together to endow cells with the plasticity required to maintain compositional heterogeneity with respect to individual proteins. Hence, the applications for imaging protein localization and dynamics require high accuracy, particularly at high spatio-temporal level. We provided experimental data for the applications of Variable-Angle Epifluorescence Microscopy (VAEM) in dissecting protein dynamics in plant cells. The VAEM-based co-localization analysis took penetration depth and incident angle into consideration. Besides direct overlap of dual-color fluorescence signals, the co-localization analysis was carried out quantitatively in combination with the methodology for calculating puncta distance and protein proximity index. Besides, simultaneous VAEM tracking of cytoskeletal dynamics provided more insights into coordinated responses of actin filaments and microtubules. Moreover, lateral motility of membrane proteins was analyzed by calculating diffusion coefficients and kymograph analysis, which represented an alternative method for examining protein motility. The present study presented experimental evidence on illustrating the use of VAEM in tracking and dissecting protein dynamics, dissecting endosomal dynamics, cell structure assembly along with membrane microdomain and protein motility in intact plant cells.

  17. Impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions in a regional air quality forecast model on surface ozone predictions during stratospheric intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendlebury, Diane; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael D.; Lupu, Alexandru

    2018-02-01

    A regional air quality forecast model, GEM-MACH, is used to examine the conditions under which a limited-area air quality model can accurately forecast near-surface ozone concentrations during stratospheric intrusions. Periods in 2010 and 2014 with known stratospheric intrusions over North America were modelled using four different ozone lateral boundary conditions obtained from a seasonal climatology, a dynamically-interpolated monthly climatology, global air quality forecasts, and global air quality reanalyses. It is shown that the mean bias and correlation in surface ozone over the course of a season can be improved by using time-varying ozone lateral boundary conditions, particularly through the correct assignment of stratospheric vs. tropospheric ozone along the western lateral boundary (for North America). Part of the improvement in surface ozone forecasts results from improvements in the characterization of near-surface ozone along the lateral boundaries that then directly impact surface locations near the boundaries. However, there is an additional benefit from the correct characterization of the location of the tropopause along the western lateral boundary such that the model can correctly simulate stratospheric intrusions and their associated exchange of ozone from stratosphere to troposphere. Over a three-month period in spring 2010, the mean bias was seen to improve by as much as 5 ppbv and the correlation by 0.1 depending on location, and on the form of the chemical lateral boundary condition.

  18. Rose bush leaf and internode expansion dynamics: analysis and development of a model capturing interplant variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine eDemotes-Mainard

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Bush rose architecture, among other factors, such as plant health, determines plant visual quality. The commercial product is the individual plant and interplant variability may be high within a crop. Thus, both mean plant architecture and interplant variability should be studied. Expansion is an important feature of architecture, but it has been little studied at the level of individual organs in bush roses. We investigated the expansion kinetics of primary shoot organs, to develop a model reproducing the organ expansion of real crops from non destructive input variables. We took interplant variability in expansion kinetics and the model’s ability to simulate this variability into account. Changes in leaflet and internode dimensions over thermal time were recorded for primary shoot expansion, on 83 plants from three crops grown in different climatic conditions and densities. An empirical model was developed, to reproduce organ expansion kinetics for individual plants of a real crop of bush rose primary shoots. Leaflet or internode length was simulated as a logistic function of thermal time. The model was evaluated by cross-validation. We found that differences in leaflet or internode expansion kinetics between phytomer positions and between plants at a given phytomer position were due mostly to large differences in time of organ expansion and expansion rate, rather than differences in expansion duration. Thus, in the model, the parameters linked to expansion duration were predicted by values common to all plants, whereas variability in final size and organ expansion time was captured by input data. The model accurately simulated leaflet and internode expansion for individual plants (RMSEP = 7.3% and 10.2% of final length, respectively. Thus, this study defines the measurements required to simulate expansion and provides the first model simulating organ expansion in rosebush to capture interplant variability.

  19. Stratospheric concentrations of N2O in July 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, P.W.; Lagomarsino, R.J.; Schonberg, M.

    1977-01-01

    The first measurement of the hemispheric distribution of N 2 O concentrations in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere is reported for July 1975. This distribution is similar to those of CCl 3 F and SF 6 , although N 2 O is more stable in the stratosphere than either of the other trace gases. The inventory of N 2 O in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in July 1975 against which future observations can be compared is 136 Tg

  20. Stratospheric warmings - The quasi-biennial oscillation Ozone Hole in the Antarctic but not the Arctic - Correlations between the Solar Cycle, Polar Temperatures, and an Equatorial Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoppe, Ulf-Peter

    2010-05-15

    This report is a tutorial and overview over some of the complex dynamic phenomena in the polar and equatorial stratosphere, and the unexpected correlation that exists between these and the solar cycle. Sudden stratospheric warmings (stratwarms) occur in the polar stratosphere in winter, but not equally distributed between the two hemispheres. As a result, the ozone hole in the springtime polar stratosphere is much more severe in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a dynamic phenomenon of the equatorial stratosphere. Through processes not fully understood, the phase of the QBO (easterly or westerly) influences the onset of stratwarms. In addition, a correlation between the stratospheric winter temperature over the poles and the solar cycle has been found, but only if the datapoints are ordered by the phase of the QBO. - The best explanations and figures from four recent textbooks are selected, and abstracts of most relevant publications from the six last years are collected, with the most relevant portions for these subjects highlighted. - In addition to being basic science, the understanding of these phenomena is important in the context of the ozone hole, the greenhouse effect, as well as anthropogenic and natural climate change. (author)

  1. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

    2018-01-01

    Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  2. Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Meraner

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

  3. Dynamic analysis of elastic rubber tired car wheel breaking under variable normal load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedotov, A. I.; Zedgenizov, V. G.; Ovchinnikova, N. I.

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of the paper is to analyze the dynamics of the braking of the wheel under normal load variations. The paper uses a mathematical simulation method according to which the calculation model of an object as a mechanical system is associated with a dynamically equivalent schematic structure of the automatic control. Transfer function tool analyzing structural and technical characteristics of an object as well as force disturbances were used. It was proved that the analysis of dynamic characteristics of the wheel subjected to external force disturbances has to take into account amplitude and phase-frequency characteristics. Normal load variations impact car wheel braking subjected to disturbances. The closer slip to the critical point is, the higher the impact is. In the super-critical area, load variations cause fast wheel blocking.

  4. Variable influence on the equatorial troposphere associated with ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    sphere to the stratosphere due to the uneven land profile (Matsuno ... an impact of the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere heat flux, Eurasian ... convective clouds in the stratosphere–troposphere dynamics ..... modeling benchmarks; J. Clim.

  5. Exploring the dynamics of balance data - movement variability in terms of drift and diffusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gottschall, Julia [Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany)], E-mail: julia.gottschall@uni-oldenburg.de; Peinke, Joachim [Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, D-26111 Oldenburg (Germany)], E-mail: peinke@uni-oldenburg.de; Lippens, Volker [Department of Human Movement, University of Hamburg, Moller Street 10, D-20148 Hamburg (Germany)], E-mail: vlippens@uni-hamburg.de; Nagel, Volker [Department of Human Movement, University of Hamburg, Moller Street 10, D-20148 Hamburg (Germany)

    2009-02-23

    We introduce a method to analyze postural control on a balance board by reconstructing the underlying dynamics in terms of a Langevin model. Drift and diffusion coefficients are directly estimated from the data and fitted by a suitable parametrization. The governing parameters are utilized to evaluate balance performance and the impact of supra-postural tasks on it. We show that the proposed method of analysis gives not only self-consistent results but also provides a plausible model for the reconstruction of balance dynamics.

  6. Exploring the dynamics of balance data - movement variability in terms of drift and diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gottschall, Julia; Peinke, Joachim; Lippens, Volker; Nagel, Volker

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a method to analyze postural control on a balance board by reconstructing the underlying dynamics in terms of a Langevin model. Drift and diffusion coefficients are directly estimated from the data and fitted by a suitable parametrization. The governing parameters are utilized to evaluate balance performance and the impact of supra-postural tasks on it. We show that the proposed method of analysis gives not only self-consistent results but also provides a plausible model for the reconstruction of balance dynamics

  7. Relativistic point dynamics general equations, constant proper masses, interactions between electric charges, variable proper masses, collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Arzeliès, Henri

    1972-01-01

    Relativistic Point Dynamics focuses on the principles of relativistic dynamics. The book first discusses fundamental equations. The impulse postulate and its consequences and the kinetic energy theorem are then explained. The text also touches on the transformation of main quantities and relativistic decomposition of force, and then discusses fields of force derivable from scalar potentials; fields of force derivable from a scalar potential and a vector potential; and equations of motion. Other concerns include equations for fields; transfer of the equations obtained by variational methods int

  8. Langevin dynamics for vector variables driven by multiplicative white noise: A functional formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Miguel Vera; Arenas, Zochil González; Barci, Daniel G.

    2015-04-01

    We discuss general multidimensional stochastic processes driven by a system of Langevin equations with multiplicative white noise. In particular, we address the problem of how time reversal diffusion processes are affected by the variety of conventions available to deal with stochastic integrals. We present a functional formalism to build up the generating functional of correlation functions without any type of discretization of the Langevin equations at any intermediate step. The generating functional is characterized by a functional integration over two sets of commuting variables, as well as Grassmann variables. In this representation, time reversal transformation became a linear transformation in the extended variables, simplifying in this way the complexity introduced by the mixture of prescriptions and the associated calculus rules. The stochastic calculus is codified in our formalism in the structure of the Grassmann algebra. We study some examples such as higher order derivative Langevin equations and the functional representation of the micromagnetic stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation.

  9. Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

    2017-01-01

    An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

  10. Research of thermal dynamic characteristics for variable load single screw refrigeration compressor with different capacity control mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zengli; Wang, Zhenbo; Wang, Jun; Jiang, Wenchun; Feng, Quanke

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Theoretical models of SSRC under part-load condition have been established. • The experiment of SSRC performance under part-load condition was conducted. • Thermal dynamic characteristic of SSRC under part-load condition was gained. • Economy and reliability of SSRC under part-load condition was analyzed. - Abstract: In the single screw refrigeration compressor (SSRC), the capacity control mechanism is normally employed to meet the actual required cooling capacity under different load conditions. In this paper, theoretical calculation models describing the working process of the SSRC with the single slide valve capacity control mechanism (SVCCM) and SSRC with the frequency conversion regulating mechanism (FCRM) are established to research the thermal dynamic characteristics for variable load SSRC under part-load conditions. Experimental investigation on a SSRC under part-load conditions is also carried out to verify the theoretical calculation models. By using these validated models, the thermodynamic performances and dynamic characteristics of the SSRC with different capacity control mechanism under part-load conditions have been analyzed and compared. Through the comparison, the economical efficiency and reliability of the SSRC with different capacity control mechanism were obtained. All of these works can provide the basis for the later optimization design for the variable load single screw refrigeration compressor.

  11. Phage exposure causes dynamic shifts in the expression states of specific phase-variable genes of Campylobacter jejuni

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aidley, Jack; Holst Sørensen, Martine C.; Bayliss, Christopher D.

    2017-01-01

    Phase variation (PV) creates phenotypic heterogeneity at high frequencies and in a reversible manner. This phenomenon allows bacteria to adapt to a variety of different environments and selective pressures. In Campylobacter jejuni this reversible adaptive process is mediated by mutations in homop......Phase variation (PV) creates phenotypic heterogeneity at high frequencies and in a reversible manner. This phenomenon allows bacteria to adapt to a variety of different environments and selective pressures. In Campylobacter jejuni this reversible adaptive process is mediated by mutations...... in homopolymeric G/C tracts. Many C. jejuni-specific phages are dependent on phase-variable surface structures for successful infection. We previously identified the capsular polysaccharide (CPS) moiety, MeOPN-GalfNAc, as a receptor for phage F336 and showed that phase-variable expression of the transferase...... for this CPS modification, cj1421, and two other phase-variable CPS genes generated phage resistance in C. jejuni. Here we investigate the population dynamics of C. jejuni NCTC11168 when exposed to phage F336 in vitro using a newly described method - the 28-locus-CJ11168 PV analysis. Dynamic switching...

  12. Grid Compatibility of Variable Speed Wind Turbines with Directly Coupled Synchronous Generator and Hydro-Dynamically Controlled Gearbox

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, H.; Poeller, M. [DIgSILENT GmbH, 72810 Gomaringen (Germany); Basteck, A.; Tilscher, M.; Pfister, J. [Voith Turbo GmbH and Co. KG, 74564 Crailsheim (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    This paper analyzes grid integration aspects of a new type of variable-speed wind turbine, the directly coupled synchronous generator with hydro-dynamically controlled gearbox. In contrast to existing wind generators using synchronous generators, the generator of this concept is directly connected to the AC grid, without the application of any power electronics converter. Variable speed operation of the turbine is mechanically achieved by a gear box with continuously controllable variable gear box ratio. For this purpose, a detailed dynamic model of a 2 MW wind turbine with a Voith WinDrive has been implemented using the modelling environment of the simulation software DIgSILENT PowerFactory. For investigating grid compatibility aspects of this new wind generator concept, a model of a 50 MW wind farm, with typical layout, based on 25 wind turbines of the 2 MW-class has been analyzed. This paper focuses on the compatibility of the new concept with existing connection standards, such as the E.ON grid code. Of special interest are typical stability phenomena of synchronous generators, such as transient and oscillatory stability as well as power quality issues like voltage flicker. The results of stability studies are presented and possible advantages of the new concept with special focus on offshore applications are discussed.

  13. Forecasting Multivariate Road Traffic Flows Using Bayesian Dynamic Graphical Models, Splines and Other Traffic Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anacleto, Osvaldo; Queen, Catriona; Albers, Casper J.

    Traffic flow data are routinely collected for many networks worldwide. These invariably large data sets can be used as part of a traffic management system, for which good traffic flow forecasting models are crucial. The linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM) has been shown to be promising for

  14. Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly...

  15. Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thai, K.T.D.; Cazelles, B.; Nguyen, N.V.; Vo, L.T.; Boni, M.F.; Farrar, J.; Simmons, C.P.; van Doorn, H.R.; de Vries, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan

  16. Scientific reasoning abilities in kindergarten: dynamic assessment of the control of variables strategy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaf, J. van der; Segers, P.C.J.; Verhoeven, L.T.W.

    2015-01-01

    A dynamic assessment tool was developed and validated using Mokken scale analysis to assess the extent to which kindergartners are able to construct unconfounded experiments, an essential part of scientific reasoning. Scientific reasoning is one of the learning processes happening within science

  17. The Dynamic Multiprocess Framework: Evidence from Prospective Memory with Contextual Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scullin, Michael K.; McDaniel, Mark A.; Shelton, Jill Talley

    2013-01-01

    The ability to remember to execute delayed intentions is referred to as prospective memory. Previous theoretical and empirical work has focused on isolating whether a particular prospective memory task is supported either by effortful monitoring processes or by cue-driven spontaneous processes. In the present work, we advance the Dynamic Multiprocess Framework, which contends that both monitoring and spontaneous retrieval may be utilized dynamically to support prospective remembering. To capture the dynamic interplay between monitoring and spontaneous retrieval we had participants perform many ongoing tasks and told them that their prospective memory cue may occur in any context. Following either a 20-min or a 12-hr retention interval, the prospective memory cues were presented infrequently across three separate ongoing tasks. The monitoring patterns (measured as ongoing task cost relative to a between-subjects control condition) were consistent and robust across the three contexts. There was no evidence for monitoring prior to the initial prospective memory cue; however, individuals who successfully spontaneously retrieved the prospective memory intention, thereby realizing that prospective memory cues could be expected within that context, subsequently monitored. These data support the Dynamic Multiprocess Framework, which contends that individuals will engage monitoring when prospective memory cues are expected, disengage monitoring when cues are not expected, and that when monitoring is disengaged, a probabilistic spontaneous retrieval mechanism can support prospective remembering. PMID:23916951

  18. Modeling the plasma chemistry of stratospheric Blue Jet streamers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Holger; Notholt, Justus

    2014-05-01

    Stratospheric Blue Jets (SBJs) are upward propagating discharges in the altitude range 15-40 km above thunderstorms. The currently most accepted theory associates SBJs to the development of the streamer zone of a leader. The streamers emitted from the leader can travel for a few tens of kilometers predominantly in the vertical direction (Raizer et al., 2007). The strong electric fields at the streamer tips cause ionisation, dissociation, and excitation, and give rise to chemical perturbations. While in recent years the effects of electric discharges occurring in the mesosphere (sprites) have been investigated in a number of model studies, there are only a few studies on the impact of SBJs. However, chemical perturbations due to SBJs are of interest as they might influence the stratospheric ozone layer. We present results of detailed plasma chemistry simulations of SBJ streamers for both day-time and night-time conditions. Any effects of the subsequent leader are not considered. The model accounts for more than 500 reactions and calculates the evolution of the 88 species under the influence of the breakdown electric fields at the streamer tip. As the SBJ dynamics is outside the scope of this study, the streamer parameters are prescribed. For this purpose, electric field parameters based on Raizer et al. (2007) are used. The model is applied to the typical SBJ altitude range 15-40 km. The simulations indicate that SBJ streamers cause significant chemical perturbations. In particular, the liberation of atomic oxygen during the discharge leads to a formation of ozone. At the same time, reactive nitrogen and hydrogen radicals are produced which will cause catalytic ozone destruction. Reference: Raizer et al. (2007), J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 69 (8), 925-938.

  19. An Investigation of Multi-Satellite Stratospheric Measurements on Tropospheric Weather Predictions over Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Min

    The troposphere and stratosphere are the two closest atmospheric layers to the Earth's surface. These two layers are separated by the so-called tropopause. On one hand, these two layers are largely distinguished, on the other hand, lots of evidences proved that connections are also existed between these two layers via various dynamical and chemical feedbacks. Both tropospheric and stratospheric waves can propagate through the tropopause and affect the down streams, despite the fact that this propagation of waves is relatively weaker than the internal interactions in both atmospheric layers. Major improvements have been made in numerical weather predictions (NWP) via data assimilation (DA) in the past 30 years. From optimal interpolation to variational methods and Kalman Filter, great improvements are also made in the development of DA technology. The availability of assimilating satellite radiance observation and the increasing amount of satellite measurements enabled the generation of better atmospheric initials for both global and regional NWP systems. The selection of DA schemes is critical for regional NWP systems. The performance of three major data assimilation (3D-Var, Hybrid, and EnKF) schemes on regional weather forecasts over the continental United States during winter and summer is investigated. Convergence rate in the variational methods can be slightly accelerated especially in summer by the inclusion of ensembles. When the regional model lid is set at 50-mb, larger improvements (10˜20%) in the initials are obtained over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Better forecast skills (˜10%) are obtained in all three DA schemes in summer. Among these three DA schemes, slightly better (˜1%) forecast skills are obtained in Hybrid configuration than 3D-Var. Overall better forecast skills are obtained in summer via EnKF scheme. An extra 22% skill in predicting summer surface pressure but 10% less skills in winter are given by EnKF when compared to 3D

  20. Online dynamic flight optimisation applied to guidance of a variable-flow ducted rocket

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Halswijk, W.H.C.

    2009-01-01

    The Variable-Flow Ducted Rocket (VFDR) is a type of ramjet that can control the fuel mass flow to the combustion chamber. It combines the high efficiency at high-speed of ramjets with the throttlability of turbofans, and this makes VFDR propulsion an excellent choice for high speed, long range

  1. Stabilization of wave equations with variable coefficient and delay in the dynamical boundary feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan Guo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this article we consider the boundary stabilization of a wave equation with variable coefficients. This equation has an acceleration term and a delayed velocity term on the boundary. Under suitable geometric conditions, we obtain the exponential decay for the solutions. Our proof relies on the geometric multiplier method and the Lyapunov approach.

  2. Nature and dynamics of climate variability in the uganda cattle corridor

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Meteology Department

    2013-08-12

    Aug 12, 2013 ... 1Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda. 2Africa Innovations Institute, Kampala, Uganda. 3Department of Biology, Gulu ..... research activities under the project “Adaptation to the. Impact of Climate Variability on Food and Health Security in the Cattle ...

  3. The Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC): Mission overview and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelhaf, Hermann; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Rapp, Markus; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Engel, Andreas; Bönisch, Harald

    2016-04-01

    The POLSTRACC mission aims at providing new scientific knowledge on the Arctic lowermost stratosphere and upper troposphere under the present load of halogens and state of climate variables. POLSTRACC employs the German High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft (HALO) and is the only HALO mission dedicated to study the UTLS at high latitudes several years after the last intensive Arctic campaigns. The scientific scope of POLSTRACC is broadened by its combination with the SALSA (Seasonality of Air mass transport and origin in the Lowermost Stratosphere using the HALO Aircraft) and GW-LCYCLE (Gravity Wave Life Cycle Experiment, a BMBF/ROMIC project) missions, which address complementary scientific goals sharing the same HALO payload. POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE offer the unique opportunity to study the bottom of the polar vortex and the high-latitude UTLS along with their impact on lower latitudes throughout an entire winter/spring cycle. The payload for the combined POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE campaigns comprises an innovative combination of remote sensing techniques providing 2- and 3-D distributions of temperature and a large number of substances, and precise in-situ instruments measuring T, O3, H2O, tracers of different lifetimes and chemically active species at the aircraft level with high time-resolution. Drop sondes will add information about temperature, humidity and wind in the atmosphere underneath the aircraft. The POLSTRACC consortium includes national (KIT, Forschungszentrum Jülich, DLR, Universities of Frankfurt, Heidelberg, Mainz and Wuppertal; PTB) and international partners (e.g. NASA). The field campaign is divided into three phases for addressing (i) the early polar vortex and its wide-scale vicinity in December 2015 (from Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), (ii) the mid-winter vortex from January to March 2016 (from Kiruna, Sweden), and (iii) the late dissipating vortex and its wide-scale vicinity in March 2016 (from Kiruna and

  4. Temporal dynamic of wood formation in Pinus cembra along the alpine treeline ecotone and the effect of climate variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Andreas; Baumgartner, Daniel; Zimmermann, Jolanda; Oberhuber, Walter

    2009-06-01

    We determined the temporal dynamic of cambial activity and xylem development of stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) throughout the treeline ecotone. Repeated micro-sampling of the developing tree ring was carried out during the growing seasons 2006 and 2007 at the timberline (1950 m a.s.l.), treeline (2110 m a.s.l.) and within the krummholz belt (2180 m a.s.l.) and the influence of climate variables on intra-annual wood formation was determined.At the beginning of both growing seasons, highest numbers of cambial and enlarging cells were observed at the treeline. Soil temperatures at time of initiation of cambial activity were c. 1.5 °C higher at treeline (open canopy) compared to timberline (closed canopy), suggesting that a threshold root-zone temperature is involved in triggering onset of above ground stem growth.The rate of xylem cell production determined in two weekly intervals during June through August 2006-2007 was significantly correlated with air temperature (temperature sums expressed as degree-days and mean daily maximum temperature) at the timberline only. Lack of significant relationships between tracheid production and temperature variables at the treeline and within the krummholz belt support past dendroclimatological studies that more extreme environmental conditions (e.g., wind exposure, frost desiccation, late frost) increasingly control tree growth above timberline.Results of this study revealed that spatial and temporal (i.e. year-to-year) variability in timing and dynamic of wood formation of Pinus cembra is strongly influenced by local site factors within the treeline ecotone and the dynamics of seasonal temperature variation, respectively.

  5. Numerical investigation of the nonlinear dynamics of a hybrid acousto-optic Bragg cell with a variable feedback gain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Monish R.; Zhou, Hao

    2014-09-01

    Since around 1979, the operation of an acousto-optic Bragg cell under positive first-order feedback via amplification and delay in the loop has been studied extensively by several groups [1-3]. In recent work, the analysis of the nonlinear dynamics (NLD) of the system was extended to include bistable maps and Lyapunov exponents, and application of the chaos for signal encryption and decryption for uniform plane waves. The present work originated with the problem of a variable photodetector aperture opening relative to the first-order light. This potentially complex problem is simplified by assuming instead a variable feedback gain ( β ~ (t)), which leads to considerably different NLD. This paper examines initially the NLD versus the (DC) bias voltage for different variable- β ~ conditions, including slow and fast rates of change of the gain with time in relation to the feedback delay. It is found that the response depends critically on the rate of rise of the feedback gain, and also that the resulting chaotic regimes are generally significantly different from those for fixed values of β ~ . We have generated constant feedback gain and the variable feedback gain (t) chaos characteristics of the hybrid A-O network. Chaos as an equivalent carrier has been used to encrypt messages for both fixed and variable β ~ . The transmitted signal is detected from the encrypted carrier using a heterodyne method, using a slave Bragg cell with matched keys to generate local chaos followed by a low pass filter and a phase inverter. Results between variable- and fixed-gain systems are compared in terms of advantages and disadvantages.

  6. Contribution to the dynamic analysis of prestressed and preloaded spring-mass systems of variable structure under shock load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthees, W.

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this work is the development of a method to analyze on impact load structural systems whose topologically variable system arrangements are dependent on temporarily varying deformation conditions impact loads. This method serves to examine the prototype of a dynamically excited burst protection system for a nuclear power plant. Evidence is given that in case of hypothetical failure of the prestressed reactor pressure vessel the maximum load capacity of the reactor core is not exceeded, which in turn guarantees safe shutdown of the reactor. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Dynamics of Line-Driven Winds from Disks in Cataclysmic Variables. I. Solution Topology and Wind Geometry

    OpenAIRE

    Feldmeier, Achim; Shlosman, Isaac

    1999-01-01

    We analyze the dynamics of 2-D stationary, line-driven winds from accretion disks in cataclysmic variable stars. The driving force is that of line radiation pressure, in the formalism developed by Castor, Abbott & Klein for O stars. Our main assumption is that wind helical streamlines lie on straight cones. We find that the Euler equation for the disk wind has two eigenvalues, the mass loss rate and the flow tilt angle with the disk. Both are calculated self-consistently. The wind is characte...

  8. Joint dynamics and intra-subject variability during countermovement jumps in children and adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raffalt, Peter C; Alkjær, Tine; Simonsen, Erik B

    2016-01-01

    The present study investigated lower limb joint work, lower limb joint energy transport and intra-subject variation of the joint dynamics during countermovement jumps in children and adults. Twelve healthy men and eleven healthy boys performed ten maximal countermovement jumps. Three dimensional...... kinematics and kinetics were recorded in synchrony. Hip, knee and ankle joint eccentric and concentric work, joint energy transfer, intra-subject variation of joint moment, joint power and joint moment components were calculated. The children had lower eccentric and concentric hip work and lower eccentric...... work, hip joint moment and hip and knee joint power. Higher intra-subject variation was observed in horizontal joint reaction force components for the children and higher intra-subject variation in the segment angular inertia components was observed for the adults. The joint dynamics of children during...

  9. A probabilistic analysis of the dynamic response of monopile foundations: Soil variability and its consequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, M.; Andersen, L.V.; Ibsen, L.B.

    2015-01-01

    The reliability of offshore wind turbines is highly influenced by the uncertainties related to the subsoil conditions. Traditionally, the evaluation of the dynamic structural behaviour is based on a computational model with deterministic soil properties. Using this approach, however, provides...... on a Monte Carlo method facilitating the derivation of the probability densities of the modal properties and the fatigue loading. The main conclusion of the presented work is that the dynamic structural behaviour of the wind turbine and its support structure is strongly affected by the stochastic soil......-analytical impedance functions of a monopile embedded in a stochastic linear viscoelastic soil layer, fully coupled aero-hydro-elastic simulations are conducted in the nonlinear multi-body code Hawc2. The probabilistic analysis accounts for the uncertainty of soil properties (e.g. damping and stiffness) and relies...

  10. Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

  11. Dynamical 'in situ' observation of biological samples using variable pressure scanning electron microscope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nedela, V

    2008-01-01

    Possibilities of 'in-situ' observation of non-conductive biological samples free of charging artefacts in dynamically changed surrounding conditions are the topic of this work. The observed biological sample, the tongue of a rat, was placed on a cooled Peltier stage. We studied the visibility of topographical structure depending on transition between liquid and gas state of water in the specimen chamber of VP SEM.

  12. The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere

    OpenAIRE

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia; Lin, Pu

    2015-01-01

    Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990?s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively fo...

  13. Parallel variable selection of molecular dynamics clusters as a tool for calculation of spectroscopic properties

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kessler, Jiří; Dračínský, Martin; Bouř, Petr

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 5 (2013), s. 366-371 ISSN 0192-8651 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP208/11/0105; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11033 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LM2010005 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : molecular dynamics * clusters * density functional theory * Raman optical activity * NMR Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 3.601, year: 2013

  14. Dynamical "in situ" observation of biological samples using variable pressure scanning electron microscope

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Neděla, Vilém

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 126, - (2008), 012046:1-4 ISSN 1742-6588. [Electron Microscopy and Analysis Group Conference 2007 (EMAG 2007). Glasgow, 03.09.2007-07.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA102/05/0886; GA AV ČR KJB200650602 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20650511 Keywords : biological sample * VP-SEM * dynamical experiments Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering

  15. Design and dynamic modeling of electrorheological fluid-based variable-stiffness fin for robotic fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazaz Behbahani, Sanaz; Tan, Xiaobo

    2017-08-01

    Fish actively control their stiffness in different swimming conditions. Inspired by such an adaptive behavior, in this paper we study the design, prototyping, and dynamic modeling of compact, tunable-stiffness fins for robotic fish, where electrorheological (ER) fluid serves as the enabling element. A multi-layer composite fin with an ER fluid core is prototyped and utilized to investigate the influence of electrical field on its performance. Hamilton's principle is used to derive the dynamic equations of motion of the flexible fin, and Lighthill's large-amplitude elongated-body theory is adopted to estimate the hydrodynamic force when the fin undergoes base-actuated rotation. The dynamic equations are then discretized using the finite element method, to obtain an approximate numerical solution. Experiments are conducted on the prototyped flexible ER fluid-filled beam for parameter identification and validation of the proposed model, and for examining the effectiveness of electrically controlled stiffness tuning. In particular, it is found that the natural frequency is increased by almost 40% when the applied electric field changes from 0 to 1.5× {10}6 {{V}} {{{m}}}-1.

  16. System dynamics approach for modeling of sugar beet yield considering the effects of climatic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervin, Lia; Islam, Md Saiful

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for computation of yields and to investigate the dependency of yields on some major climatic parameters, i.e. temperature and rainfall, for Beta vulgaris subsp. (sugar beet crops) under future climate change scenarios. A system dynamics model was developed which takes account of the effects of rainfall and temperature on sugar beet yields under limited irrigation conditions. A relationship was also developed between the seasonal evapotranspiration and seasonal growing degree days for sugar beet crops. The proposed model was set to run for the present time period of 1993-2012 and for the future period 2013-2040 for Lethbridge region (Alberta, Canada). The model provides sugar beet yields on a yearly basis which are comparable to the present field data. It was found that the future average yield will be increased at about 14% with respect to the present average yield. The proposed model can help to improve the understanding of soil water conditions and irrigation water requirements of an area under certain climatic conditions and can be used for future prediction of yields for any crops in any region (with the required information to be provided). The developed system dynamics model can be used as a supporting tool for decision making, for improvement of agricultural management practice of any region. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Consensus Emerging from the Bottom-up: the Role of Cognitive Variables in Opinion Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giardini, Francesca; Vilone, Daniele; Conte, Rosaria

    2015-09-01

    The study of opinions - e.g., their formation and change, and their effects on our society - by means of theoretical and numerical models has been one of the main goals of sociophysics until now, but it is one of the defining topics addressed by social psychology and complexity science. Despite the flourishing of different models and theories, several key questions still remain unanswered. The aim of this paper is to provide a cognitively grounded computational model of opinions in which they are described as mental representations and defined in terms of distinctive mental features. We also define how these representations change dynamically through different processes, describing the interplay between mental and social dynamics of opinions. We present two versions of the model, one with discrete opinions (voter model-like), and one with continuous ones (Deffuant-like). By means of numerical simulations, we compare the behaviour of our cognitive model with the classical sociophysical models, and we identify interesting differences in the dynamics of consensus for each of the models considered.

  18. DYNAMIC RESPONSE OF THICK PLATES ON TWO PARAMETER ELASTIC FOUNDATION UNDER TIME VARIABLE LOADING

    OpenAIRE

    Ozgan, Korhan; Daloglu, Ayse T.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, behavior of foundation plates with transverse shear deformation under time variable loading is presented using modified Vlasov foundation model. Finite element formulation of thick plates on elastic foundation is derived by using an 8-noded finite element based on Mindlin plate theory. Selective reduced integration technique is used to avoid shear locking problem which arises when smaller plate thickness is considered for the evaluation of the stiffness matrices. After comparis...

  19. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    OpenAIRE

    Cuomo, V.; Lanfredi, M.; Lapenna, V.; Macchiato, M.; Ragosta, M.; Telesca, L.

    2000-01-01

    Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram), a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal...

  20. Condition of The Stratospheric and Mesospheric Ozone Layer Over Bulgaria for the Period 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleyna, Petya; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Miloshev, Nikolay

    2014-05-01

    A detailed analysis of the variations of the stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bulgaria, in the period 1996-2012, is presented in the article on the basis of ground and satellite measurements of the Total Ozone Content (TOC). The move of the most important components: yearly running mean values, amplitudes and phases of the first four harmonics of the seasonal cycle. Their mean values for the period and the existing long term trends have been found. An evaluation of the general characteristics of the short term variability of the Total Ozone Content (TOC) over Bulgaria also has been made in the article. The impact of the planetary wave activity of the stratosphere on the total ozone has been studied and the climatology of the oscillation amplitudes with periods of 4, 7, 11 and 25 days has been defined.

  1. Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

    2018-05-01

    The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

  2. Progression paths in children's problem solving: The influence of dynamic testing, initial variability, and working memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resing, Wilma C M; Bakker, Merel; Pronk, Christine M E; Elliott, Julian G

    2017-01-01

    The current study investigated developmental trajectories of analogical reasoning performance of 104 7- and 8-year-old children. We employed a microgenetic research method and multilevel analysis to examine the influence of several background variables and experimental treatment on the children's developmental trajectories. Our participants were divided into two treatment groups: repeated practice alone and repeated practice with training. Each child received an initial working memory assessment and was subsequently asked to solve figural analogies on each of several sessions. We examined children's analogical problem-solving behavior and their subsequent verbal accounts of their employed solving processes. We also investigated the influence of verbal and visual-spatial working memory capacity and initial variability in strategy use on analogical reasoning development. Results indicated that children in both treatment groups improved but that gains were greater for those who had received training. Training also reduced the influence of children's initial variability in the use of analogical strategies with the degree of improvement in reasoning largely unrelated to working memory capacity. Findings from this study demonstrate the value of a microgenetic research method and the use of multilevel analysis to examine inter- and intra-individual change in problem-solving processes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Effects of a cognitive dual task on variability and local dynamic stability in sustained repetitive arm movements using principal component analysis: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Alessia; Federolf, Peter; Haid, Thomas; Meulenbroek, Ruud

    2018-06-01

    In many daily jobs, repetitive arm movements are performed for extended periods of time under continuous cognitive demands. Even highly monotonous tasks exhibit an inherent motor variability and subtle fluctuations in movement stability. Variability and stability are different aspects of system dynamics, whose magnitude may be further affected by a cognitive load. Thus, the aim of the study was to explore and compare the effects of a cognitive dual task on the variability and local dynamic stability in a repetitive bimanual task. Thirteen healthy volunteers performed the repetitive motor task with and without a concurrent cognitive task of counting aloud backwards in multiples of three. Upper-body 3D kinematics were collected and postural reconfigurations-the variability related to the volunteer's postural change-were determined through a principal component analysis-based procedure. Subsequently, the most salient component was selected for the analysis of (1) cycle-to-cycle spatial and temporal variability, and (2) local dynamic stability as reflected by the largest Lyapunov exponent. Finally, end-point variability was evaluated as a control measure. The dual cognitive task proved to increase the temporal variability and reduce the local dynamic stability, marginally decrease endpoint variability, and substantially lower the incidence of postural reconfigurations. Particularly, the latter effect is considered to be relevant for the prevention of work-related musculoskeletal disorders since reduced variability in sustained repetitive tasks might increase the risk of overuse injuries.

  4. The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, J. M.; Gille, J. C.

    1978-01-01

    The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere is used to obtain vertical profiles and maps of temperature and the concentration of ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and nitric acid for the region of the stratosphere bounded by the upper troposphere and the lower mesosphere.

  5. A critical oscillation constant as a variable of time scales for half-linear dynamic equations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehák, Pavel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2010), s. 237-256 ISSN 0139-9918 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB100190701 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : dynamic equation * time scale * half-linear equation * (non)oscillation criteria * Hille-Nehari criteria * Kneser criteria * critical constant * oscillation constant * Hardy inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.316, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.2478%2Fs12175-010-0009-7

  6. The dynamics of variability in introductory physics students' thinking: Examples from kinematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Brian W.

    Physics education research has long emphasized the need for physics instruction to address students' existing intuitions about the physical world as an integral part of learning physics. Researchers, however, have not reached a consensus-view concerning the nature of this intuitive knowledge or the specific role that it does (or might) play in physics learning. While many early characterizations of student misconceptions cast students' intuitive thinking as largely static, unitary in structure, and counter-productive for the purpose of learning correct physics, much of contemporary research supports a conceptualization of intuitive thought as dynamic, manifold in structure, and generative in the development of expertise. This dissertation contributes to ongoing inquiry into the nature of students' intuitive thought and its role in learning physics through the pursuit of dynamic systems characterizations of student reasoning, with a particular focus on how students settle into and shift among multiple patterns of reasoning about motion. In one thread of this research, simple experimental designs are used to demonstrate how individual students can be predictably biased toward and away from different ways of thinking about the same physical situation when specific parameters of questions posed to students are varied. I qualitatively model students' thinking in terms of the activations and interactions among fine-grained intuitive knowledge and static features of the context. In a second thread of this research, case studies of more dynamic shifts in students' conceptual reasoning are developed from videos of student discussions during collaborative classroom activities. These show multiple local stabilities of students' thinking as well, with evidence of group-level dynamics shifting on the time scale of minutes. This work contributes to existing research paradigms that aim to characterize student thinking in physics education in two important ways: (1) through the

  7. Correlative measurements of the stratospheric aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, R.; Brogniez, C.; Herman, M.; Diallo, S.; Ackerman, M.

    1992-12-01

    Joint experiments were organized or available during stratospheric flights of a photopolarimeter, referred to as RADIBAL (radiometer balloon). In May 1984, RADIBAL flew simultaneously with another balloonborne experiment conducted by the Institut d'Aeronomie Spatiale de Belgique (IASB), which provides multiwavelength vertical profiles of the aerosol scattering coefficient. At this time, the El Chichon layer was observable quite directly from mountain sites. A ground-based station set up at Pic du Midi allowed an extensive description of the aerosol optical properties. The IASB and the Pic du Midi observations are consistent with the aerosol properties derived from the RADIBAL measurement analysis.

  8. Stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, O.

    2008-01-01

    It is well known that an overexposure to ultraviolet radiation is associated with a number of health risks such as an increased risk of cataracts and skin cancers. At a time when climate change is often blamed for all our environmental problems, what is the latest news about the stratospheric ozone layer and other factors controlling ultraviolet radiation at the surface of the Earth? Will the expected changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and changes in our climate increase or decrease the risk for skin cancer? This article investigates the role of the various factors influencing ultraviolet radiation and presents the latest knowledge on the subject. (author)

  9. The boiling point of stratospheric aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, J. M.

    1971-01-01

    A photoelectric particle counter was used for the measurement of aerosol boiling points. The operational principle involves raising the temperature of the aerosol by vigorously heating a portion of the intake tube. At or above the boiling point, the particles disintegrate rather quickly, and a noticeable effect on the size distribution and concentration is observed. Stratospheric aerosols appear to have the same volatility as a solution of 75% sulfuric acid. Chemical analysis of the aerosols indicates that there are other substances present, but that the sulfate radical is apparently the major constituent.

  10. Polar-night O3, NO2 and NO3 distributions during sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 as seen by GOMOS/Envisat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kyrölä

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW are large-scale transient events, which have a profound effect on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation in winter. During the SSW events the temperature in stratosphere increases by several tens of Kelvins and zonal winds decelerate or reverse in direction. Changes in temperature and dynamics significantly affect the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere. In this paper, the response of the middle-atmosphere trace gases during several sudden stratospheric warmings in 2003–2008 is investigated using measurements from the GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars instrument on board the Envisat satellite. We have analyzed spatial and temporal changes of NO2 and NO3 in the stratosphere, and of ozone in the whole middle atmosphere. To facilitate our analyses, we have used the temperature profiles data from the MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder instrument on board the Aura satellite, as well as simulations by the FinROSE chemistry-transport model and the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry model (SIC. NO3 observations in the polar winter stratosphere during SSWs are reported for the first time. Changes in chemical composition are found not to be restricted to the stratosphere, but to extend to mesosphere and lower thermosphere. They often exhibit a complicated structure, because the distribution of trace gases is affected by changes in both chemistry and dynamics. The tertiary ozone maximum in the mesosphere often disappears with the onset of SSW, probably because of strong mixing processes. The strong horizontal mixing with outside-vortex air is well observed also in NO2 data, especially in cases of enhanced NO2 inside the polar vortex before SSW. Almost in all of the considered events, ozone near the secondary maximum decreases with onset of SSW. In both experimental data and FinROSE modelling, ozone changes are positively correlated with temperature changes in the lower stratosphere

  11. Reassessment of causes of ozone column variability following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo using a nudged CCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Telford

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The eruption of Mount Pinatubo produced the largest loading of stratospheric sulphate aerosol in the twentieth century. This heated the tropical lower stratosphere, affecting stratospheric circulation, and provided enhanced surface area for heterogeneous chemistry. These factors combined to produce record low values of "global" total ozone column. Though well studied, there remains some uncertainty about the attribution of this low ozone, with contributions from both chemical and dynamical effects. We take a complementary approach to previous studies, nudging the potential temperature and horizontal winds in the new UKCA chemistry climate model to reproduce the atmospheric response and assess the impact on global total ozone. We then combine model runs and observations to distinguish between chemical and dynamical effects. To estimate the effects of increased heterogeneous chemistry on ozone we compare runs with volcanically enhanced and background surface aerosol density. The modelled depletion of global ozone peaks at about 7 DU in early 1993, in good agreement with values obtained from observations. We subtract the modelled aerosol induced ozone loss from the observed ozone record and attribute the remaining variability to `dynamical' effects. The remaining variability is dominated by the QBO. We also examine tropical and mid-latitude ozone, diagnosing contributions from El Niño in the tropics and identifying dynamically driven low ozone in northern mid-latitudes, which we interpret as possible evidence of changes in the QBO. We conclude that, on a global scale, the record lows of extra-polar ozone are produced by the increased heterogeneous chemistry, although there is evidence for dynamics produced low ozone in certain regions, including northern mid-latitudes.

  12. Climate variability and nonstationary dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Chaves, Luis Fernando

    2014-01-01

    A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales. We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1-2-year periodic mode in 2005-2007 and 2010-2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

  13. Climate variability and nonstationary dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daisuke Onozuka

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A stationary association between climate factors and epidemics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae pneumonia has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether elements of the local climate that are relevant to M. pneumoniae pneumonia transmission have stationary signatures of climate factors on their dynamics over different time scales. METHODS: We performed a cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of association between monthly M. pneumoniae cases in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 and indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. RESULTS: Monthly M. pneumoniae cases were strongly associated with the dynamics of both the IOD and ENSO for the 1-2-year periodic mode in 2005-2007 and 2010-2011. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of M. pneumoniae epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between M. pneumoniae cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

  14. Extraordinary variability and sharp transitions in a maximally frustrated dynamic network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, Beate; Zia, R. K. P.

    2013-03-01

    Most previous studies of complex networks have focused on single, static networks. However, in the real world, networks are dynamic and interconnected. Inspired by the presence of extroverts and introverts in the general population, we investigate a highly simplified model of a social network, involving two types of nodes: one preferring the highest degree possible, and one preferring no connections whatsoever. There are only two control parameters in the model: the number of ``introvert'' and ``extrovert'' nodes, NI and NE. Our key findings are as follows: As a function of NI and NE, the system exhibits a highly unusual transition, displaying extraordinary fluctuations (as in 2nd order transitions) and discontinuous jumps (characteristic of 1st order transitions). Most remarkably, the system can be described by an Ising-like Hamiltonian with long-range multi-spin interactions and some of its properties can be obtained analytically. This is in stark contrast with other dynamic network models which rely almost exclusively on simulations. NSF-DMR-1005417/1244666 and and ICTAS Virginia Tech

  15. Studying Stratospheric Temperature Variation with Cosmic Ray Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohang; He, Xiaochun

    2015-04-01

    The long term stratospheric cooling in recent decades is believed to be equally important as surface warming as evidence of influences of human activities on the climate system. Un- fortunatly, there are some discrepancies among different measurements of stratospheric tem- peratures, which could be partially caused by the limitations of the measurement techniques. It has been known for decades that cosmic ray muon flux is sensitive to stratospheric temperature change. Dorman proposed that this effect could be used to probe the tempera- ture variations in the stratophere. In this talk, a method for reconstructing stratospheric temperature will be discussed. We verify this method by comparing the stratospheric tem- perature measured by radiosonde with the ones derived from cosmic ray measurement at multiple locations around the globe.

  16. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  17. Equilibrium and Dynamic Osmotic Behaviour of Aqueous Solutions with Varied Concentration at Constant and Variable Volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkov, Ivan L.; Manev, Emil D.; Sazdanova, Svetla V.; Kolikov, Kiril H.

    2013-01-01

    Osmosis is essential for the living organisms. In biological systems the process usually occurs in confined volumes and may express specific features. The osmotic pressure in aqueous solutions was studied here experimentally as a function of solute concentration (0.05–0.5 M) in two different regimes: of constant and variable solution volume. Sucrose, a biologically active substance, was chosen as a reference solute for the complex tests. A custom made osmotic cell was used. A novel operative experimental approach, employing limited variation of the solution volume, was developed and applied for the purpose. The established equilibrium values of the osmotic pressure are in agreement with the theoretical expectations and do not exhibit any evident differences for both regimes. In contrast, the obtained kinetic dependences reveal striking divergence in the rates of the process at constant and varied solution volume for the respective solute concentrations. The rise of pressure is much faster at constant solution volume, while the solvent influx is many times greater in the regime of variable volume. The results obtained suggest a feasible mechanism for the way in which the living cells rapidly achieve osmotic equilibrium upon changes in the environment. PMID:24459448

  18. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Mironova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III, and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS, we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak

  19. Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

  20. Possible effect of extreme solar energetic particle event of 20 January 2005 on polar stratospheric aerosols: direct observational evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mironova, I. A.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Petelina, S. V.

    2012-01-01

    Energetic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization of the low-middle atmosphere, leading to associated changes in atmospheric properties. Via the hypothetical influence of ionization on aerosol growth and facilitated formation of clouds, this may be an important indirect link relating solar variability to climate. This effect is highly debated, however, since the proposed theoretical mechanisms still remain illusive and qualitative, and observational evidence is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, important questions regarding the existence and magnitude of the effect, and particularly the fraction of aerosol particles that can form and grow, are still open. Here we present empirical evidence of the possible effect caused by cosmic rays upon polar stratospheric aerosols, based on a case study of an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 20 January 2005. Using aerosol data obtained over polar regions from different satellites with optical instruments that were operating during January 2005, such as the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III), and Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS), we found a significant simultaneous change in aerosol properties in both the Southern and Northern Polar regions in temporal association with the SEP event. We speculate that ionization of the atmosphere, which was abnormally high in the lower stratosphere during the extreme SEP event, might have led to formation of new particles and/or growth of preexisting ultrafine particles in the polar stratospheric region. However, a detailed interpretation of the effect is left for subsequent studies. This is the first time high vertical resolution measurements have been used to discuss possible production of stratospheric aerosols under the influence of cosmic ray induced ionization. The observed effect is marginally detectable for the analyzed severe SEP event and can be undetectable for the majority of weak-moderate events. The present

  1. Dynamics of vector dark solitons propagation and tunneling effect in the variable coefficient coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musammil, N M; Porsezian, K; Subha, P A; Nithyanandan, K

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the dynamics of vector dark solitons propagation using variable coefficient coupled nonlinear Schrödinger (Vc-CNLS) equation. The dark soliton propagation and evolution dynamics in the inhomogeneous system are studied analytically by employing the Hirota bilinear method. It is apparent from our asymptotic analysis that the collision between the dark solitons is elastic in nature. The various inhomogeneous effects on the evolution and interaction between dark solitons are explored, with a particular emphasis on nonlinear tunneling. It is found that the tunneling of the soliton depends on a condition related to the height of the barrier and the amplitude of the soliton. The intensity of the tunneling soliton either forms a peak or a valley, thus retaining its shape after tunneling. For the case of exponential background, the soliton tends to compress after tunneling through the barrier/well. Thus, a comprehensive study of dark soliton pulse evolution and propagation dynamics in Vc-CNLS equation is presented in the paper.

  2. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation Variability on the Vegetation Dynamics of the Mediterranean Rangelands using NDVI and Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Mitigating the vulnerability of Mediterranean rangelands against degradation is limited by our ability to understand and accurately characterize those impacts in space and time. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a radiometric measure of the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation canopy chlorophyll and is therefore a good surrogate measure of vegetation dynamics. On the other hand, meteorological indices such as the drought assessing Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) are can be easily estimated from historical and projected datasets at the global scale. This work investigates the potential of driving Random Forest (RF) models with meteorological indices to approximate NDVI-based vegetation dynamics. A sufficiently large number of RF models are trained using random subsets of the dataset as predictors, in a bootstrapping approach to account for the uncertainty introduced by the subset selection. The updated E-OBS-v13.1 dataset of the ENSEMBLES EU FP6 program provides observed monthly meteorological input to estimate SPI over the Mediterranean rangelands. RF models are trained to depict vegetation dynamics using the latest version (3g.v1) of the third generation GIMMS NDVI generated from NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. Analysis is conducted for the period 1981-2015 at a gridded spatial resolution of 25 km. Preliminary results demonstrate the potential of machine learning algorithms to effectively mimic the underlying physical relationship of drought and Earth Observation vegetation indices to provide estimates based on precipitation variability.

  3. Particulate sulfur in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere – sources and climate forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. G. Martinsson

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is based on fine-mode aerosol samples collected in the upper troposphere (UT and the lowermost stratosphere (LMS of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during monthly intercontinental flights at 8.8–12 km altitude of the IAGOS-CARIBIC platform in the time period 1999–2014. The samples were analyzed for a large number of chemical elements using the accelerator-based methods PIXE (particle-induced X-ray emission and PESA (particle elastic scattering analysis. Here the particulate sulfur concentrations, obtained by PIXE analysis, are investigated. In addition, the satellite-borne lidar aboard CALIPSO is used to study the stratospheric aerosol load. A steep gradient in particulate sulfur concentration extends several kilometers into the LMS, as a result of increasing dilution towards the tropopause of stratospheric, particulate sulfur-rich air. The stratospheric air is diluted with tropospheric air, forming the extratropical transition layer (ExTL. Observed concentrations are related to the distance to the dynamical tropopause. A linear regression methodology handled seasonal variation and impact from volcanism. This was used to convert each data point into stand-alone estimates of a concentration profile and column concentration of particulate sulfur in a 3 km altitude band above the tropopause. We find distinct responses to volcanic eruptions, and that this layer in the LMS has a significant contribution to the stratospheric aerosol optical depth and thus to its radiative forcing. Further, the origin of UT particulate sulfur shows strong seasonal variation. We find that tropospheric sources dominate during the fall as a result of downward transport of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL formed in the Asian monsoon, whereas transport down from the Junge layer is the main source of UT particulate sulfur in the first half of the year. In this latter part of the year, the stratosphere is the clearly dominating source of

  4. Evaluating climate variability and management impacts on carbon dynamics of a temperate forest using a variety of techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Climate variability, extreme weather events, forest age and management history impacts carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. A variety of measurement techniques such as eddy covariance, dendrochronology, automatic soil CO2 chambers and remote sensing are employed fully understand forest carbon dynamics. Here, we present carbon flux measurements from 2003-2014 in a 76-year old managed temperate pine ((-Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Forest was partially thinned (30% tree harvested) in 1983 and 2012. The thinning in 2012 did not significantly impact carbon fluxes as post-thinning fluxes were within the range of inter-annual variability. Mean annual post-thinning (2012-2104) gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) measure by the eddy covariance technique was 1518 ± 78 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to pre-thinning (2003-2011) GEP of 1384 ± 121 g C m-2·year-1. Over the same period, mean post-thinning net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 185 ± 75 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to post-thinning NEP of 180 ± 70 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that pre-thinning NEP was not significantly different than post-thinning NEP. Only post-thinning mean annual ecosystem respiration (Re; 1322 ± 54 g C m-2 year-1) was higher than pre-thinning Re (1195 ± 101 g C m-2 year-1). Soil CO2 efflux measurements showed similar trends. We also evaluated the impacts of climate variability and management regime on the full life cycle of the forest using annual radial tree-ring growths from 15 trees and compared them with historical climate (temperature and precipitation) data. While the annual growth rates displayed weak correlation with long-term climatic records, the growth was generally reduced during years with extreme drought (-36% of mean annual precipitation) and extreme temperature variability (±0.6 - 1.0°C). Overall, forest was more sensitive to management regime than climate variability. It showed higher growth stress during low light condition after

  5. Dynamics of melanoma tumor therapy with vesicular stomatitis virus: explaining the variability in outcomes using mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rommelfanger, D M; Offord, C P; Dev, J; Bajzer, Z; Vile, R G; Dingli, D

    2012-05-01

    Tumor selective, replication competent viruses are being tested for cancer gene therapy. This approach introduces a new therapeutic paradigm due to potential replication of the therapeutic agent and induction of a tumor-specific immune response. However, the experimental outcomes are quite variable, even when studies utilize highly inbred strains of mice and the same cell line and virus. Recognizing that virotherapy is an exercise in population dynamics, we utilize mathematical modeling to understand the variable outcomes observed when B16ova malignant melanoma tumors are treated with vesicular stomatitis virus in syngeneic, fully immunocompetent mice. We show how variability in the initial tumor size and the actual amount of virus delivered to the tumor have critical roles on the outcome of therapy. Virotherapy works best when tumors are small, and a robust innate immune response can lead to superior tumor control. Strategies that reduce tumor burden without suppressing the immune response and methods that maximize the amount of virus delivered to the tumor should optimize tumor control in this model system.

  6. Flight dynamics of a pterosaur-inspired aircraft utilizing a variable-placement vertical tail

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Brian; Lind, Rick [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Chatterjee, Sankar, E-mail: ricklind@ufl.edu [Department of Geology and Paleontology Museum, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409 (United States)

    2011-06-15

    Mission performance for small aircraft is often dependent on the turn radius. Various biologically inspired concepts have demonstrated that performance can be improved by morphing the wings in a manner similar to birds and bats; however, the morphing of the vertical tail has received less attention since neither birds nor bats have an appreciable vertical tail. This paper investigates a design that incorporates the morphing of the vertical tail based on the cranial crest of a pterosaur. The aerodynamics demonstrate a reduction in the turn radius of 14% when placing the tail over the nose in comparison to a traditional aft-placed vertical tail. The flight dynamics associated with this configuration has unique characteristics such as a Dutch-roll mode with excessive roll motion and a skid divergence that replaces the roll convergence.

  7. Population dynamics and in vitro antibody pressure of porcine parvovirus indicate a decrease in variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streck, André Felipe; Homeier, Timo; Foerster, Tessa; Truyen, Uwe

    2013-09-01

    To estimate the impact of porcine parvovirus (PPV) vaccines on the emergence of new phenotypes, the population dynamic history of the virus was calculated using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method with a Bayesian skyline coalescent model. Additionally, an in vitro model was performed with consecutive passages of the 'Challenge' strain (a virulent field strain) and NADL2 strain (a vaccine strain) in a PK-15 cell line supplemented with polyclonal antibodies raised against the vaccine strain. A decrease in genetic diversity was observed in the presence of antibodies in vitro or after vaccination (as estimated by the in silico model). We hypothesized that the antibodies induced a selective pressure that may reduce the incidence of neutral selection, which should play a major role in the emergence of new mutations. In this scenario, vaccine failures and non-vaccinated populations (e.g. wild boars) may have an important impact in the emergence of new phenotypes.

  8. Flight dynamics of a pterosaur-inspired aircraft utilizing a variable-placement vertical tail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, Brian; Lind, Rick; Chatterjee, Sankar

    2011-01-01

    Mission performance for small aircraft is often dependent on the turn radius. Various biologically inspired concepts have demonstrated that performance can be improved by morphing the wings in a manner similar to birds and bats; however, the morphing of the vertical tail has received less attention since neither birds nor bats have an appreciable vertical tail. This paper investigates a design that incorporates the morphing of the vertical tail based on the cranial crest of a pterosaur. The aerodynamics demonstrate a reduction in the turn radius of 14% when placing the tail over the nose in comparison to a traditional aft-placed vertical tail. The flight dynamics associated with this configuration has unique characteristics such as a Dutch-roll mode with excessive roll motion and a skid divergence that replaces the roll convergence.

  9. Hydrologic variability governs population dynamics of a vulnerable amphibian in an arid environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin R Zylstra

    Full Text Available Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis. Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01. Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01. Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems.

  10. On higher ground: how well can dynamic body acceleration determine speed in variable terrain?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owen R Bidder

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Animal travel speed is an ecologically significant parameter, with implications for the study of energetics and animal behaviour. It is also necessary for the calculation of animal paths by dead-reckoning. Dead-reckoning uses heading and speed to calculate an animal's path through its environment on a fine scale. It is often used in aquatic environments, where transmission telemetry is difficult. However, its adoption for tracking terrestrial animals is limited by our ability to measure speed accurately on a fine scale. Recently, tri-axial accelerometers have shown promise for estimating speed, but their accuracy appears affected by changes in substrate and surface gradients. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate four metrics of acceleration; Overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA, vectorial dynamic body acceleration (VDBA, acceleration peak frequency and acceleration peak amplitude, as proxies for speed over hard, soft and inclined surfaces, using humans as a model species. RESULTS: A general linear model (GLM showed a significant difference in the relationships between the metrics and speed depending on substrate or surface gradient. When the data from all surface types were considered together, VeDBA had the highest coefficient of determination. CONCLUSIONS: All of the metrics showed some variation in their relationship with speed according to the surface type. This indicates that changes in the substrate or surface gradient during locomotion by animals would produce errors in speed estimates, and also in dead-reckoned tracks if they were calculated from speeds based entirely on a priori calibrations. However, we describe a method by which the relationship between acceleration metrics and speed can be corrected ad hoc, until tracks accord with periodic ground truthed positions, obtained via a secondary means (e.g. VHF or GPS telemetry. In this way, dead-reckoning provides a means to obtain fine scale movement data

  11. Assessment of variables controlling nitrate dynamics in groundwater: is it a threat to surface aquatic ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, V; Armour, J D; Cogle, A L

    2005-01-01

    The impact of fertilised cropping on nitrate-N dynamics in groundwater (GW) was assessed in a catchment from piezometers installed: (i) to different depths, (ii) in different soil types, (iii) on different positions on landscape, and (iv) compared with the Australian and New Zealand Environmental and Conservation Council guideline values provided for different aquatic ecosystems. The GW and NO(3)-N concentration dynamics were monitored in 39 piezometer wells, installed to 5-90 m depth, under fertilized sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum-S) in the Johnstone River Catchment, Australia, from 1999 January through September 2002. The median nitrate-N concentration ranged from 14 to 1511 microg L(-1), and the 80th percentile from 0 to 1341 microg L(-1). In 34 out of the 39 piezometer wells the 80th percentile or 80% of the nitrate-N values were higher than 30 microg L(-1), which is the maximum trigger value provided in the ANZECC table for sustainable health of different aquatic ecosystems. Nitrate-N concentration decreased with increasing well depth, increasing depth of water in wells, and with decreasing relief on landscape. Nitrate-N was higher in alluvial soil profiles than on those formed in-situ. Nitrate-N increased with increasing rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, fluctuated during the peak rainy period, and then decreased when the rain ceased. The rapid decrease in GW after the rains ceased suggested potential existed for nitrate-N to be discharged as lateral-flow into streams. This may contribute towards the deterioration in the health of down-stream aquatic ecosystems.

  12. Dynamics of spectral components of heart rate variability during changes in autonomic balance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højgaard, M V; Holstein-Rathlou, N H; Agner, E

    1998-01-01

    Frequency domain analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has been proposed as a semiquantitative method for assessing activities in the autonomic nervous system. We examined whether absolute powers, normalized powers, and the low frequency-to-high frequency ratio (LF/HF) derived from the HRV power...... spectrum could detect shifts in autonomic balance in a setting with low sympathetic nervous tone. Healthy subjects were examined for 3 h in the supine position during 1) control conditions (n = 12), 2) acute beta-blockade (n = 11), and 3) chronic beta-blockade (n = 10). Heart rate fell during the first 40...... min of the control session (72 +/- 2 to 64 +/- 2 beats/min; P powers of all spectral areas rose during the first 60 min in all three settings, more so with beta-blockade (P

  13. [Variability of heart rhythm in dynamic study of the psychovegetative relationship in neurogenic syncope].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musaeva, Z A; Khaspekova, N B; Veĭn, A M

    2001-01-01

    Physiological changes accompanying syncopes of neural origin (SNO) in patients with psychovegetative syndrome are still insufficiently studied. The data concerning the role of the autonomic nervous system are discrepant. Heart rate variability was analyzed in 68 patients with SNO in a supine position and during the active 20-min orthostatic test taking into account the heart rate components of very low frequency (VLF, an index of cerebral sympathetic activity) and high frequency (HF, a marker of vagal modulation). Steady growth of the VLF and progressive decrease in the LF within 15-20 min of the orthostasis were observed in all the patients (n = 33), who fainted after this period. The predominance of the VLF in the heart rate power spectra was correlated with a high level of anxiety. It is suggested that this fact indicates the stable cerebral sympathetic activation resulting in a baroreceptor dysfunction, i.e., a failure of vasomotor regulation in patients with SNO.

  14. Supersymmetric particles in N=2 superspace: phase space variables and Hamilton dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azcarraga, J.A. de; Lukierski, J.

    1982-10-01

    We consider a reparametrization invariant model recently proposed based on the N-extended superPoincare group with central charges, which leads to trajectories on the N-extended Salam-Strathdee superspace. The case N=2 is discussed in detail. We show that the N=2 model is invariant under four real supergauge transformations generated by first class odd constraints which imply the Dirac equation. We introduce one bosonic (which fixes the reparametrization) and four real spinorial (which fix the supergauges) gauge conditions and calculate the Dirac brackets for the remaining unconstrained variables (x-vector,p-vector,thetasup(α),theta-barsup(α-dot)). The equations of motion are written in Hamiltonian form, with H varies as to Tr set containing Qsub(αi),Q-barsub(β-doti) and correspond to the Heisenberg equations of the (first) quantized theory. (author)

  15. ON THE DEMAND DYNAMICS OF ELECTRICITY IN GHANA: DO EXOGENOUS NON-ECONOMIC VARIABLES COUNT?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishmael Ackah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the effect of endogenous and exogenous economic factors on electricity demand in Ghana. The Structural Time Series Model is employed due to its ability to capture exogenous non-economic variables. The findings reveal that education has significant effect on electricity consumption in both the short and the long run. Education has inverse relationship with electricity consumption implying that the more consumers are educated, the less electricity they consume. The study also reveals that price changes have less impact on electricity consumption in the short run and that efficiency in electricity consumption has improved since 1971 and will continue for the next twenty years. The study recommends that more public education should be carried out to enhance energy conservation and also, realistic prices should be charge for electricity consumption to allow private investment into the sector.

  16. Infection dynamics and genetic variability of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae in self-replacement gilts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuti, Karine L; de Barcellos, David E S N; de Andrade, Caroline P; de Almeida, Laura L; Pieters, Maria

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the longitudinal pattern of M. hyopneumoniae detection in self-replacement gilts at various farms and to characterize the genetic diversity among samples. A total of 298 gilts from three M. hyopneumoniae positive farms were selected at 150days of age (doa). Gilts were tested for M. hyopneumoniae antibodies by ELISA, once in serum at 150 doa and for M. hyopneumoniae detection in laryngeal swabs by real time PCR two or three times. Also, 425 piglets were tested for M. hyopneumoniae detection in laryngeal swabs. A total of 103 samples were characterized by Multiple Locus Variable-number tandem repeats Analysis. Multiple comparison tests were performed and adjusted using Bonferroni correction to compare prevalences of positive gilts by ELISA and real time PCR. Moderate to high prevalence of M. hyopneumoniae in gilts was detected at 150 doa, which decreased over time, and different detection patterns were observed among farms. Dam-to-piglet transmission of M. hyopneumoniae was not detected. The characterization of M. hyopneumoniae showed 17 different variants in all farms, with two identical variants detected in two of the farms. ELISA testing showed high prevalence of seropositive gilts at 150 doa in all farms. Results of this study showed that circulation of M. hyopneumoniae in self-replacement gilts varied among farms, even under similar production and management conditions. In addition, the molecular variability of M. hyopneumoniae detected within farms suggests that in cases of minimal replacement gilt introduction bacterial diversity maybe farm specific. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Persistence of Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccormick, M. Patrick; Trepte, C. R.

    1988-01-01

    The persistence of Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 satellite sensor over a 9-year period is compared and contrasted. Histograms of the SAM 2 1.0 micron extinction ratio data (aerosol extinction normalized by the molecular extinction) at an altitude of 18 km in the Antarctic have been generated for three 10-day periods in the month of September. Statistics for eight different years (1979 to 1982 and 1984 to 1987) are shown in separate panels for each figure. Since the SAM 2 system is a solar occultation experiment, observations are limited to the edge of the polar night and no measurements are made deep within the vortex where temperatures could be colder. For this reason, use is made of the NMC global gridded fields and the known temperature-extinction relationship to infer additional information on the occurrence and areal coverage of PSCs. Calculations of the daily areal coverage of the 195 K isotherm will be presented for this same period of data. This contour level lies in the range of the predicted temperature for onset of the Type 1 particle enhancement mode at 50 mb (Poole and McCormick, 1988b) and should indicate approximately when formation of the binary HNO3-H2O particles begins.

  18. Study of photolytic aerosols at stratospheric pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delattre, Patrick.

    1975-07-01

    An experimental study of photolytic aerosol formation at stratospheric pressure (60 Torr) and laboratory temperature, was carried out previous to the exact simulation of photolytic aerosol formation in real stratospheric conditions. An experimental simulation device, techniques of generation of known mixtures of inert gases with SO 2 and NOsub(x) traces at low concentration (below 1 ppm volume) and H 2 O traces (a few ppm), and techniques for the determination and counting of aerosol particles at low pressures were perfected. The following results were achieved: the rate of vapor condensation on nuclei was reduced when total pressure decreased. At low pressure the working of condensation nuclei counters and the formation of photolytic aerosols is influenced by this phenomenon. An explanation is proposed, as well as means to avoid this unpleasant effect on the working of nuclei counters at low pressure. No photolytic aerosol production was ascertained at 60 Torr when water concentration was below 100 ppm whatever the concentration of SO 2 or NOsub(x) traces. With water concentration below 1200ppm and SO 2 trace concentration below 1ppm, the aerosol particles produced could not consist of sulfuric acid drops but probably of nitrosyl sulfate acide crystals [fr

  19. Stratospheric ozone - Impact of human activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcelroy, Michael B.; Salawitch, Ross J.

    1989-01-01

    The current knowledge of the chemistry of the stratosphere is reviewed, with particular consideration given to the measurements from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment and from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment. Analysis of the ATMOS data at 30 deg N suggests that the current understanding of the contemporary-stratosphere chemistry at mid-latitudes is relatively complete, except for possible problems with the diurnal variations of N2O5 at low altitudes, and with ClNO3 at higher altitudes. Except for some difficulties with these two compounds, the data from ATMOS agree well with the gas phase models for nitrogen and chlorine species at 30 deg N in spring. It is emphasized that, in addition to the HOCl mechanism proposed by Solomon et al. (1986), the ClO-BrO scheme proposed by McElroy et al. (1986), and the ClO dimer mechanism introduced by Molina and Molina (1987), other processes exist that are responsible for ozone removal.

  20. Satellite studies of the stratospheric aerosol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCormick, M.P.; Hamill, P.; Pepin, T.J.; Chu, W.P.; Swissler, T.J.; McMaster, L.R.

    1979-01-01

    The potential climatological and environmental importance of the stratospheric aerosol layer has prompted great interest in measuring the properties of this aerosol. In this paper we report on two recently deployed NASA satellite systems (SAM II and SAGE) that are monitoring the stratospheric aerosol. The satellite orbits are such that nearly global coverage is obtained. The instruments mounted in the spacecraft are sun photometers that measure solar intensity at specific wavelengths as it is moderated by atmospheric particulates and gases during each sunrise and sunset encountered by the satellites. The data obtained are ''inverted'' to yield vertical aerosol and gaseous (primarily ozone) extinction profiles with 1 km vertical resolution. Thus, latitudinal, longitudinal, and temporal variations in the aerosol layer can be evaluated. The satellite systems are being validated by a series of ground truth experiments using airborne and ground lidar, balloon-borne dustsondes, aircraft-mounted impactors, and other correlative sensors. We describe the SAM II and SAGE satellite systems, instrument characteristics, and mode of operation; outline the methodology of the experiments; and describe the ground truth experiments. We present preliminary results from these measurements

  1. Effects of a hydrotherapy programme on symbolic and complexity dynamics of heart rate variability and aerobic capacity in fibromyalgia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamunér, Antonio Roberto; Andrade, Carolina P; Forti, Meire; Marchi, Andrea; Milan, Juliana; Avila, Mariana Arias; Catai, Aparecida Maria; Porta, Alberto; Silva, Ester

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of a hydrotherapy programme on aerobic capacity and linear and non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability (HRV) in women with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). 20 women with FMS and 20 healthy controls (HC) took part in the study. The FMS group was evaluated at baseline and after a 16-week hydrotherapy programme. All participants underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing on a cycle ergometer and RR intervals recording in supine and standing positions. The HRV was analysed by linear and non-linear methods. The current level of pain, the tender points, the pressure pain threshold and the impact of FMS on quality of life were assessed. The FMS patients presented higher cardiac sympathetic modulation, lower vagal modulation and lower complexity of HRV in supine position than the HC. Only the HC decreased the complexity indices of HRV during orthostatic stimulus. After a 16-week hydrotherapy programme, the FMS patients increased aerobic capacity, decreased cardiac sympathetic modulation and increased vagal modulation and complexity dynamics of HRV in supine. The FMS patients also improved their cardiac autonomic adjustments to the orthostatic stimulus. Associations between improvements in non-linear dynamics of HRV and improvements in pain and in the impact of FMS on quality of life were found. A 16-week hydrotherapy programme proved to be effective in ameliorating symptoms, aerobic functional capacity and cardiac autonomic control in FMS patients. Improvements in the non-linear dynamics of HRV were related to improvements in pain and in the impact of FMS on quality of life.

  2. Design and dynamic simulation of a fixed pitch 56 kW wind turbine drive train with a continuously variable transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, C.; Kasuba, R.; Pintz, A.; Spring, J.

    1986-01-01

    The dynamic analysis of a horizontal axis fixed pitch wind turbine generator (WTG) rated at 56 kW is discussed. A mechanical Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) was incorporated in the drive train to provide variable speed operation capability. One goal of the dynamic analysis was to determine if variable speed operation, by means of a mechanical CVT, is capable of capturing the transient power in the WTG/wind environment. Another goal was to determine the extent of power regulation possible with CVT operation.

  3. Vertical dynamics of a single-span beam subjected to moving mass-suspended payload system with variable speeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wei

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the vertical dynamics of a simply supported Euler-Bernoulli beam subjected to a moving mass-suspended payload system of variable velocities. A planar theoretical model of the moving mass-suspended payload system of variable speeds is developed based on several assumptions: the rope is massless and rigid, and its length keeps constant; the stiffness of the gantry beam is much greater than the supporting beam, and the gantry beam can be treated as a mass particle traveling along the supporting beam; the supporting beam is assumed as a simply supported Bernoulli-Euler beam. The model can be degenerated to consider two classical cases-the moving mass case and the moving payload case. The proposed model is verified using both numerical and experimental methods. To further investigate the effect of possible influential factors, numerical examples are conducted covering a range of parameters, such as variable speeds (acceleration or deceleration), mass ratios of the payload to the total moving load, and the pendulum lengths. The effect of beam flexibility on swing response of the payload is also investigated. It is shown that the effect of a variable speed is significant for the deflections of the beam. The accelerating movement tends to induce larger beam deflections, while the decelerating movement smaller ones. For accelerating or decelerating movements, the moving mass model may underestimate the deflections of the beam compared with the presented model; while for uniform motion, both the moving mass model and the moving mass-payload model lead to same beam responses. Furthermore, it is observed that the swing response of the payload is not sensitive to the stiffness of the beam for operational cases of a moving crane, thus a simple moving payload model can be employed in the swing control of the payload.

  4. Reconstruction of glacier variability from lake sediments reveals dynamic Holocene climate in Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; Bakke, Jostein; Vasskog, Kristian; D'Andrea, William J.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Ólafsdóttir, Sædis

    2015-10-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth. Holocene proxy time-series are increasingly used to put this amplified response in perspective by understanding Arctic climate processes beyond the instrumental period. However, available datasets are scarce, unevenly distributed and often of coarse resolution. Glaciers are sensitive recorders of climate shifts and variations in rock-flour production transfer this signal to the lacustrine sediment archives of downstream lakes. Here, we present the first full Holocene record of continuous glacier variability on Svalbard from glacier-fed Lake Hajeren. This reconstruction is based on an undisturbed lake sediment core that covers the entire Holocene and resolves variability on centennial scales owing to 26 dating points. A toolbox of physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies in combination with multivariate statistics has allowed us to fingerprint glacier activity in addition to other processes affecting the sediment record. Evidence from variations in sediment density, validated by changes in Ti concentrations, reveal glaciers remained present in the catchment following deglaciation prior to 11,300 cal BP, culminating in a Holocene maximum between 9.6 and 9.5 ka cal BP. Correspondence with freshwater pulses from Hudson Strait suggests that Early Holocene glacier advances were driven by the melting Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). We find that glaciers disappeared from the catchment between 7.4 and 6.7 ka cal BP, following a late Hypsithermal. Glacier reformation around 4250 cal BP marks the onset of the Neoglacial, supporting previous findings. Between 3380 and 3230 cal BP, we find evidence for a previously unreported centennial-scale glacier advance. Both events are concurrent with well-documented episodes of North Atlantic cooling. We argue that this brief forcing created suitable conditions for glaciers to reform in the catchment against a background of gradual orbital cooling. These findings highlight the

  5. Impact of habitat variability and altitude on growth dynamics and reproductive allocation in Ferula jaeschkeana Vatke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ubaid Yaqoob

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ferula jaeschkeana Vatke is an important threatened medicinal plant of the Himalayan region. The present study was carried out to determine the impact of the habitat variability and altitudinal gradient on the morphological and reproductive features of the species under study. The species exhibited great variability in its morphological traits under different environmental conditions. The plants were more vigorous and taller at a low altitude site, Kashmir University Botanical Garden (KUBG while the plants of a high altitude site, Gulmarg were shorter. With increased altitude, a significant reduction in the number of umbels per flowering stem, umbellules per umbel and flowers per umbellule occurred. An increase in the number of stigma and anthers was also observed in some plants at higher altitudes. Principal component analysis (PCA revealed that the habitat of KUBG and Dachigam proved relatively better for the growth of F. jaeschkeana. Maximum resources were allocated to the growth and development of the stem followed by root tubers, leaves and inflorescence. Reproductive success of the plant species varied along the altitudinal gradient and ranged from 64% to 72%. Increasing altitude resulted in a decrease in the allocation of biomass to reproductive structures in the form of decreasing dry weight. The total resource budget per plant was maximum in low altitude Drang (572.6 ± 158.36 g and Dachigam (568.4 ± 133.42 g populations and was least in the Gulmarg population (333.4 ± 82.89 g. The reproductive effort was higher (50.83% for the high altitude Gulmarg population. The regression analysis revealed a positive correlation and predicts that plant height has a direct impact on the umbel diameter and leaf length. Our results present a detailed account on the variation of growth characteristics, reproductive success and changes in allocation patterns in relation to the environmental conditions of this valuable medicinal plant species

  6. In-situ observation of Asian pollution transported into the Arctic lowermost stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Roiger

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available On a research flight on 10 July 2008, the German research aircraft Falcon sampled an air mass with unusually high carbon monoxide (CO, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN and water vapour (H2O mixing ratios in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere. The air mass was encountered twice at an altitude of 11.3 km, ~800 m above the dynamical tropopause. In-situ measurements of ozone, NO, and NOy indicate that this layer was a mixed air mass containing both air from the troposphere and stratosphere. Backward trajectory and Lagrangian particle dispersion model analysis suggest that the Falcon sampled the top of a polluted air mass originating from the coastal regions of East Asia. The anthropogenic pollution plume experienced strong up-lift in a warm conveyor belt (WCB located over the Russian east-coast. Subsequently the Asian air mass was transported across the North Pole into the sampling area, elevating the local tropopause by up to ~3 km. Mixing with surrounding Arctic stratospheric air most likely took place during the horizontal transport when the tropospheric streamer was stretched into long and narrow filaments. The mechanism illustrated in this study possibly presents an important pathway to transport pollution into the polar tropopause region.

  7. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1996-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  8. Horizontal maps of echo power in the lower stratosphere using the MU radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirono

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent works, zenithal and azimuthal angle variations of echo power measured by VHF Stratosphere-Troposphere (ST radars have been analyzed in detail using different radar multi-beam configurations. It was found that the azimuthal angle corresponding to maximum echo power is closely related to the direction of the horizontal wind shear. These properties indicate that local wind shear affects the tilt of the scatterers. Moreover, horizontal maps of echo power collected using a large set of beams steered pulse-to-pulse up to 40 degrees off zenith revealed that the power distribution pattern in the troposphere is often skewed. In this work, a three-dimensional description of echo power variations up to 24 degrees off zenith is shown for measurements in the lower stratosphere (i.e. up to approximately 20km using a "sequential multi-beam" (SMB configuration. Such a description was not possible above the tropopause with classical multi-beam configurations because of the loss of radar sensitivity due to the limited integration time by the use of a large number of beams. This work attempts to complete previous descriptions of the phenomenon by some observations in the lower stratosphere discussed in association with complementary balloon measurements. Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (turbulence – Radio Science (remote sensing

  9. Horizontal maps of echo power in the lower stratosphere using the MU radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirono

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent works, zenithal and azimuthal angle variations of echo power measured by VHF Stratosphere-Troposphere (ST radars have been analyzed in detail using different radar multi-beam configurations. It was found that the azimuthal angle corresponding to maximum echo power is closely related to the direction of the horizontal wind shear. These properties indicate that local wind shear affects the tilt of the scatterers. Moreover, horizontal maps of echo power collected using a large set of beams steered pulse-to-pulse up to 40 degrees off zenith revealed that the power distribution pattern in the troposphere is often skewed. In this work, a three-dimensional description of echo power variations up to 24 degrees off zenith is shown for measurements in the lower stratosphere (i.e. up to approximately 20km using a "sequential multi-beam" (SMB configuration. Such a description was not possible above the tropopause with classical multi-beam configurations because of the loss of radar sensitivity due to the limited integration time by the use of a large number of beams. This work attempts to complete previous descriptions of the phenomenon by some observations in the lower stratosphere discussed in association with complementary balloon measurements.

    Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (turbulence – Radio Science (remote sensing

  10. Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawa, S.R.; Douglass, A. R.; Patrick, L. C.; Allen, D. R.; Randall, C. E.

    2004-01-01

    The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.

  11. Observation of stratospheric ozone with NIES lidar system in Tsukuba, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakane, H.; Hayashida, S.; Sasano, Y.; Sugimoto, N.; Matsui, I.; Minato, A.

    1992-01-01

    Lidars are expected to play important roles in an international monitoring network of the stratosphere such as the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). The National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in Tsukuba constructed an ozone lidar system in March 1988 and started observation in August 1988. The lidar system has a 2-m telescope and injection locked XeCl and XeF excimer lasers which can measure ozone profiles (15-45 km) and temperature profiles (30-80 km). From December 1991, lidar observations have been carried out in which the second Stokes line of the stimulated Raman scattering of a KrF laser has been used. Ozone profiles obtained with the NIES lidar system are compared with the data provided by the SAGE II satellite sensor. Results showed good agreement for the individual and the zonal mean profiles. Variations of ozone with various time scales at each altitude can be studied using the data obtained with the NIES ozone lidar system. Seasonal variations are easily found at 20 km, 30 km, and 35 km, which are qualitatively understood as a result of dynamical and photochemical effects. Systematic errors of ozone profiles due to the Pinatubo stratospheric aerosols have been detected using multi-wavelength observation

  12. Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

    1995-12-31

    Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

  13. Dynamics of changing impacts of tropical Indo-Pacific variability on Indian and Australian rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziguang; Cai, Wenju; Lin, Xiaopei

    2016-08-01

    A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduce rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southern Australia. However, since the 1980s, El Niño’s influence has been decreasing, accompanied by a strengthening in the IOD’s influence on southern Australia but a reversal in the IOD’s influence on the Indian subcontinent. The dynamics are not fully understood. Here we show that a post-1980 weakening in the ENSO-IOD coherence plays a key role. During the pre-1980 high coherence, ENSO drives both the IOD and regional rainfall, and the IOD’s influence cannot manifest itself. During the post-1980 weak coherence, a positive IOD leads to increased Indian rainfall, offsetting the impact from El Niño. Likewise, the post-1980 weak ENSO-IOD coherence means that El Niño’s pathway for influencing southern Australia cannot fully operate, and as positive IOD becomes more independent and more frequent during this period, its influence on southern Australia rainfall strengthens. There is no evidence to support that greenhouse warming plays a part in these decadal fluctuations.

  14. Non-stationary dynamics of climate variability in synchronous influenza epidemics in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

    2015-09-01

    Seasonal variation in the incidence of influenza is widely assumed. However, few studies have examined non-stationary relationships between global climate factors and influenza epidemics. We examined the monthly incidence of influenza in Fukuoka, Japan, from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the patterns of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monthly incidence of influenza showed cycles of 1 year with the IOD and 2 years with ENSO indices (Multivariate, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4). These associations were non-stationary and appeared to have major influences on the synchrony of influenza epidemics. Our study provides quantitative evidence that non-stationary associations have major influences on synchrony between the monthly incidence of influenza and the dynamics of the IOD and ENSO. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary patterns of association between influenza cases and climatic factors in early warning systems.

  15. Neural dynamics of audiovisual speech integration under variable listening conditions: an individual participant analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altieri, Nicholas; Wenger, Michael J

    2013-01-01

    Speech perception engages both auditory and visual modalities. Limitations of traditional accuracy-only approaches in the investigation of audiovisual speech perception have motivated the use of new methodologies. In an audiovisual speech identification task, we utilized capacity (Townsend and Nozawa, 1995), a dynamic measure of efficiency, to quantify audiovisual integration. Capacity was used to compare RT distributions from audiovisual trials to RT distributions from auditory-only and visual-only trials across three listening conditions: clear auditory signal, S/N ratio of -12 dB, and S/N ratio of -18 dB. The purpose was to obtain EEG recordings in conjunction with capacity to investigate how a late ERP co-varies with integration efficiency. Results showed efficient audiovisual integration for low auditory S/N ratios, but inefficient audiovisual integration when the auditory signal was clear. The ERP analyses showed evidence for greater audiovisual amplitude compared to the unisensory signals for lower auditory S/N ratios (higher capacity/efficiency) compared to the high S/N ratio (low capacity/inefficient integration). The data are consistent with an interactive framework of integration, where auditory recognition is influenced by speech-reading as a function of signal clarity.

  16. Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinkel, Martina

    2013-04-01

    Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

  17. Evapotranspiration variability and its association with vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin, 2002–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemu, Henok; Senay, Gabriel B.; Kaptue, Armel T.; Kovalskyy, Valeriy

    2014-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component in land-atmosphere interactions. In drylands, over 90% of annual rainfall evaporates. The Nile Basin in Africa is about 42% dryland in a region experiencing rapid population growth and development. The relationship of ET with climate, vegetation and land cover in the basin during 2002–2011 is analyzed using thermal-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop) ET, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based MODIS Terrestrial (MOD16) ET, MODIS-derived NDVI as a proxy for vegetation productivity and rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Interannual variability and trends are analyzed using established statistical methods. Analysis based on thermal-based ET revealed that >50% of the study area exhibited negative ET anomalies for 7 years (2009, driest), while >60% exhibited positive ET anomalies for 3 years (2007, wettest). NDVI-based monthly ET correlated strongly (r > 0.77) with vegetation than thermal-based ET (0.52 < r < 0.73) at p < 0.001. Climate-zone averaged thermal-based ET anomalies positively correlated (r = 0.6, p < 0.05) with rainfall in 4 of the 9 investigated climate zones. Thermal-based and NDVI-based ET estimates revealed minor discrepancies over rainfed croplands (60 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET), but a significant divergence over wetlands (440 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET). Only 5% of the study area exhibited statistically significant trends in ET.

  18. THE SEAFARERS’ HUMAN CAPITAL VARIABLES AND THE CREW PROFILE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin POPA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The human capital is one of the most relevant functional dimensions of the maritime transportation business, considering the seaborne particularities in the crossing countries, cultures and heterogeneous environment as onboard the maritime vessels. The nowadays great competitiveness in this area of transportation services has encouraged many companies to pursue new ways to maintain a competitive advantage, valuing its human capital. Thus, in spite of the propensity for standardisation in field of human resources profile, the seafaring crews’ management is still facing lots of issues in operational tasks’ fulfilment onboard to maritime ships, due to individual misalignment within the collective framework of the on-board teams. As is presented in the article, the individual profile of a seafarer has to be precisely defined to be efficiently integrated in the crew, but not only in professional matters, but also into a comprehensive manner, in order to support a proper adjustment of the individual seafarer behaviour to the group profile requirement, onboard to maritime vessels. STCW provisions are very welcomed in establishing common standards for professional variable of the seafarers’ individual profile, but is still missing to approach the organizational dimensions, apart to the leadership skills or risk behaviour. As shown in the article below, for a recruitment agent and further, for the ship Master is important to find the suitable employee, not only in terms of professional knowledge, skills and abilities, but also in cultural or psycho-sociological individual dimensions, as to adjust the individual to the group profile, accordingly and effectively.

  19. Fire in Fennoscandia: A palaeo-perspective of spatial and temporal variability in fire frequency and vegetation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clear, Jennifer; Bradshaw, Richard; Seppä, Heikki

    2014-05-01

    Active fire suppression in Fennoscandia has created a boreal forest ecosystem that is almost free of fire. Absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce), though the character and structure of spruce forests operates as a positive feedback retarding fire frequency. This lack of fire and dominance by Picea abies may have assisted declines in deciduous tree species, with a concomitant loss of floristic diversity. Forest fires are driven by a complex interplay between natural (climate, vegetation and topography) and anthropogenic disturbance and through palaeoecology we are able to explore spatio-temporal variability in the drivers of fire, changing fire dynamics and the subsequent consequences for forest succession, development and floristic diversity over long timescales. High resolution analysis of palaeoenvironmental proxies (pollen and macroscopic charcoal) allows Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics to be reconstructed at the local forest-stand scale. Comparisons of fire histories with pollen-derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at local- and regional-scales identify large-scale ecosystem responses and local-scale disturbance. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored to identify the drivers of fire and palaeovegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate-driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Fire was not always so infrequent in the northern European forest with early-Holocene fire regimes driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Picea abies was probably driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. Picea expansion led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass burning and here we show the now

  20. The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.

  1. An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s. Appendix K

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, Robert M.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Shia, Run-Lie; Yang, Yajaing; Zhou, Shuntai; Molnar, Gyula

    1997-01-01

    In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

  2. DISCOVERY 2010: Spatial and temporal variability in a dynamic polar ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarling, G. A.; Ward, P.; Atkinson, A.; Collins, M. A.; Murphy, E. J.

    2012-01-01

    DIC deficits, the South Georgia bloom was found to contain the strongest seasonal carbon uptake in the ice-free zone of the Southern Ocean. The surveys also encountered low-production, iron-limited regions, a situation more typical of the wider Southern Ocean. The response of primary and secondary consumers to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in production was complex. Many of the life-cycles of small pelagic organisms showed a close coupling to the seasonal cycle of food availability. For instance, Antarctic krill showed a dependence on early, non-ice-associated blooms to facilitate early reproduction. Strategies to buffer against environmental variability were also examined, such as the prevalence of multiyear life-cycles and variability in energy storage levels. Such traits were seen to influence the way in which Scotia Sea communities were structured, with biomass levels in the larger size classes being higher than in other ocean regions. Seasonal development also altered trophic function, with the trophic level of higher predators increasing through the course of the year as additional predator-prey interactions emerged in the lower trophic levels. Finally, our studies re-emphasised the role that the simple phytoplankton-krill-higher predator food chain plays in this Southern Ocean region, particularly south of the SACCF. To the north, alternative food chains, such as those involving copepods, macrozooplankton and mesopelagic fish, were increasingly important. Continued ocean warming in this region is likely to increase the prevalence of such alternative such food chains with Antarctic krill predicted to move southwards.

  3. Hippotherapy acute impact on heart rate variability non-linear dynamics in neurological disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabiddu, Ramona; Borghi-Silva, Audrey; Trimer, Renata; Trimer, Vitor; Ricci, Paula Angélica; Italiano Monteiro, Clara; Camargo Magalhães Maniglia, Marcela; Silva Pereira, Ana Maria; Rodrigues das Chagas, Gustavo; Carvalho, Eliane Maria

    2016-05-15

    Neurological disorders are associated with autonomic dysfunction. Hippotherapy (HT) is a therapy treatment strategy that utilizes a horse in an interdisciplinary approach for the physical and mental rehabilitation of people with physical, mental and/or psychological disabilities. However, no studies have been carried out which evaluated the effects of HT on the autonomic control in these patients. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of a single HT session on cardiovascular autonomic control by time domain and non-linear analysis of heart rate variability (HRV). The HRV signal was recorded continuously in twelve children affected by neurological disorders during a HT session, consisting in a 10-minute sitting position rest (P1), a 15-minute preparatory phase sitting on the horse (P2), a 15-minute HT session (P3) and a final 10-minute sitting position recovery (P4). Time domain and non-linear HRV indices, including Sample Entropy (SampEn), Lempel-Ziv Complexity (LZC) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), were calculated for each treatment phase. We observed that SampEn increased during P3 (SampEn=0.56±0.10) with respect to P1 (SampEn=0.40±0.14, p<0.05), while DFA decreased during P3 (DFA=1.10±0.10) with respect to P1 (DFA=1.26±0.14, p<0.05). A significant SDRR increase (p<0.05) was observed during the recovery period P4 (SDRR=50±30ms) with respect to the HT session period P3 (SDRR=30±10ms). Our results suggest that HT might benefit children with disabilities attributable to neurological disorders by eliciting an acute autonomic response during the therapy and during the recovery period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Social group dynamics predict stress variability among children in a New Zealand classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spray, Julie; Floyd, Bruce; Littleton, Judith; Trnka, Susanna; Mattison, Siobhan

    2018-03-27

    Previous research proposes stress as a mechanism for linking social environments and biological bodies. In particular, non-human primate studies investigate relationships between cortisol as a measure of stress response and social hierarchies. Because human social structures often include hierarchies of dominance and social status, humans may exhibit similar patterns. Studies of non-human primates, however, have not reached consistent conclusions with respect to relationships between social position and levels of cortisol. While human studies report associations between cortisol and various aspects of social environments, studies that consider social status as a predictor of stress response also report mixed results. Others have argued that perceptions of social status may have different implications for stress response depending upon social context. We propose here that characteristics of children's social networks may be a better predictor of central tendencies and variability of stress response than their perceptions of social status. This is evaluated among 24 children from 9.4 to 11.3 years of age in one upper middle-class New Zealand primary school classroom, assessed through observation within the classroom, self-reports during semi-structured interviews and 221 serial saliva samples provided daily over 10 consecutive school days. A synthetic assessment of the children's networks and peer-relationships was developed prior to saliva-cortisol analysis. We found that greater stability of peer-relationships within groups significantly predicts lower within-group variation in mid-morning cortisol over the two-week period, but not overall within-group differences in mean cortisol. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  5. Dynamic of Mutational Events in Variable Number Tandem Repeats of Escherichia coli O157:H7

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Bustamante

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available VNTRs regions have been successfully used for bacterial subtyping; however, the hypervariability in VNTR loci is problematic when trying to predict the relationships among isolates. Since few studies have examined the mutation rate of these markers, our aim was to estimate mutation rates of VNTRs specific for verotoxigenic E. coli O157:H7. The knowledge of VNTR mutational rates and the factors affecting them would make MLVA more effective for epidemiological or microbial forensic investigations. For this purpose, we analyzed nine loci performing parallel, serial passage experiments (PSPEs on 9 O157:H7 strains. The combined 9 PSPE population rates for the 8 mutating loci ranged from 4.4 × 10−05 to 1.8 × 10−03 mutations/generation, and the combined 8-loci mutation rate was of 2.5 × 10−03 mutations/generation. Mutations involved complete repeat units, with only one point mutation detected. A similar proportion between single and multiple repeat changes was detected. Of the 56 repeat mutations, 59% were insertions and 41% were deletions, and 72% of the mutation events corresponded to O157-10 locus. For alleles with up to 13 UR, a constant and low mutation rate was observed; meanwhile longer alleles were associated with higher and variable mutation rates. Our results are useful to interpret data from microevolution and population epidemiology studies and particularly point out that the inclusion or not of O157-10 locus or, alternatively, a differential weighting data according to the mutation rates of loci must be evaluated in relation with the objectives of the proposed study.

  6. Comparison of stratospheric temperature profiles from a ground-based microwave radiometer with lidar, radiosonde and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navas-Guzmán, Francisco; Kämpfer, Niklaus; Haefele, Alexander; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain

    2015-04-01

    The importance of the knowledge of the temperature structure in the atmosphere has been widely recognized. Temperature is a key parameter for dynamical, chemical and radiative processes in the atmosphere. The cooling of the stratosphere is an indicator for climate change as it provides evidence of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing just like surface warming ( [1] and references therein). However, our understanding of the observed stratospheric temperature trend and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances remains limited. Stratospheric long-term datasets are sparse and obtained trends differ from one another [1]. Therefore it is important that in the future such datasets are generated. Different techniques allow to measure stratospheric temperature profiles as radiosonde, lidar or satellite. The main advantage of microwave radiometers against these other instruments is a high temporal resolution with a reasonable good spatial resolution. Moreover, the measurement at a fixed location allows to observe local atmospheric dynamics over a long time period, which is crucial for climate research. TEMPERA (TEMPERature RAdiometer) is a newly developed ground-based microwave radiometer designed, built and operated at the University of Bern. The instrument and the retrieval of temperature profiles has been described in detail in [2]. TEMPERA is measuring a pressure broadened oxygen line at 53.1 GHz in order to determine stratospheric temperature profiles. The retrieved profiles of TEMPERA cover an altitude range of approximately 20 to 45 km with a vertical resolution in the order of 15 km. The lower limit is given by the instrumental baseline and the bandwidth of the measured spectrum. The upper limit is given by the fact that above 50 km the oxygen lines are splitted by the Zeeman effect in the terrestrial magnetic field. In this study we present a comparison of stratospheric

  7. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. I. Garfinkel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer–Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  8. Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Gordon, Amit; Oman, Luke D.; Li, Feng; Davis, Sean; Pawson, Steven

    2018-04-01

    A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to aid in the interpretation of observed interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large-scale Brewer-Dobson circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor in the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than 2 consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower-stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

  9. Coupling in the middle atmosphere related to the 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. de Wit

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The previously reported observation of anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing at mesopause heights around the onset of the January 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW over Trondheim, Norway (63° N, 10° E, is placed in a global perspective using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS temperature observations from the Aura satellite. It is shown that this anomalous forcing results in a clear cooling over Trondheim about 10 km below mesopause heights. Conversely, near the mesopause itself, where the gravity wave forcing was measured, observations with meteor radar, OH airglow and MLS show no distinct cooling. Polar cap zonal mean temperatures show a similar vertical profile. Longitudinal variability in the high northern-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT is characterized by a quasi-stationary wave-1 structure, which reverses phase at altitudes below ~ 0.1 hPa. This wave-1 develops prior to the SSW onset, and starts to propagate westward at the SSW onset. The latitudinal pole-to-pole temperature structure associated with the major SSW shows a warming (cooling in the winter stratosphere (mesosphere which extends to about 40° N. In the stratosphere, a cooling extending over the equator and far into the summer hemisphere is observed, whereas in the mesosphere an equatorial warming is noted. In the Southern Hemisphere mesosphere, a warm anomaly overlaying a cold anomaly is present, which is shown to propagate downward in time. This observed structure is in accordance with the temperature perturbations predicted by the proposed interhemispheric coupling mechanism for cases of increased winter stratospheric planetary wave activity, of which major SSWs are an extreme case. These results provide observational evidence for the interhemispheric coupling mechanism, and for the wave-mean flow interaction believed to be responsible for the establishment of the anomalies in the summer hemisphere.

  10. Soil fertility dynamics in a semiarid basin: impact of scale level in weighing the effect of the landscape variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Navarro, A.; Barbera, G. G.; Albaladejo, J.

    2009-01-01

    Arid and semi-arid Mediterranean soils are particularly sensitive to degradation processes, and soil fertility could play important role in restoration/conservation practices. Our objective was to study the relationships between soil and landscape at different scales in order to understand the main drivers of soil fertility on a semiarid catchment. A stratified sampling plan was carried out to take soil and landscape representative variability. Multivariate statistic techniques were used to elucidate the relationship between both. The results showed that soil fertility are positively related with density of vegetation and topographical conditions favourable to soil moisture at small scale, while negatively with topographical factors that contributed erosion dynamic on ero debility lithologies at medium and large scale. (Author) 8 refs.

  11. Study on dynamic behavior of fusion reactor materials and their response to variable and complex irradiation environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, K.; Kohyama, A.; Namba, C.; Wiffen, F.W.; Jones, R.H.

    2001-01-01

    A Japan-USA Program of irradiation experiments for fusion research, 'JUPITER', has been established as a 6 year program from 1995 to 2000. The goal is to study the dynamic behavior of fusion reactor materials and their response to variable and complex irradiation environment using fission reactors. The irradiation experiments in this program include low activation structural materials, functional ceramics and other innovative materials. The experimental data are analyzed by theoretical modeling and computer simulation to integrate the above effects. The irradiation capsules for in-situ measurement and varying temperature were developed successfully. It was found that insulating ceramics were worked up to 3 dpa. The property changes and related issues in low activation structural materials were summarized. (author)

  12. Fluid dynamics and mass transfer in variably saturated porous media: formulation and applications of a mathematical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, D.

    1982-01-01

    This paper presents the formulation and applications of a mathematical model designed to predict the fluid dynamics and associated mass transfers in variably saturated porous media. Novelties in the formulation are emphasized and demonstrated to provide several computational advantages. The numerical procedure employed is of the integrated finite-difference variety which employs a hybrid differencing scheme. This procedure, while solving the coupled governing equations in conservative form, permits accommodation of substantial heterogeneities and anisotropies in material properties of the porous media. Accordingly, it is capable of making reliable predictions of steeply varying moisture and chemical-specie concentration fronts. The paper provides several examples of application of the model to the solution of practical problems. It is demonstrated that economical solutions to highly non-linear problems associated with solid and liquid waste disposal practices can be obtained

  13. Effect of spatial variability of ground motion on non-linear dynamic behavior of cable stayed bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ouanani Mouloud

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This present paper summarizes the main results of incoherence of Spatial Variability of Ground Motion (SVGM component on the non-linear dynamic behavior of a Mila cable stayed bridge. The Hindy and Novack coherence model is developed for the present study in order to examine the SVGM on bridge responses, Nonlinear bridge responses are investigated in terms of transverse displacements and bending moments along the superstructure and substructure of the study bridge, as well as temporal variations of rotational ductility demands at the bridge piers ends under the incoherence SVGM component. The results are systematically compared with those obtained assuming uniform ground motion. As a general trend, it may be concluded that incoherence component of SVGM should be considered for the earthquake response assessments of cable-stayed bridges.

  14. Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilioli Gianni

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape. Methods In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere, water bodies, land use interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector, human, and parasite. In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach, a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of An. gambiae s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Nyabondo, Kibwesi, and Malindi representing four different eco-epidemiological settings. Results Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3°C gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111% and Nyabondo (+61%, and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2% and Malindi (-36%. At the lower extreme perturbation (-3°C is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%, Nyabondo -66%, Kibwezi -39%, and an increase in Malindi (+11%. A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for +1°C of temperature change, but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation. Conclusions The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in

  15. CERN: Antiprotons probe the nuclear stratosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The outer periphery of heavy stable nuclei is notoriously difficult to study experimentally. While the well understood electromagnetic interaction between electrons (or muons) and protons has given the nuclear charge (or proton) distribution with high precision for almost all stable nuclei, neutron distribution studies are much less precise. This is especially true for large nuclear distances, where the nuclear density is small. A few previous experiments probing the nuclear ''stratosphere'' suggested that far from the centre of the nucleus (of the order of 2 nuclear radii) this stratosphere may be composed predominantly of neutrons. At the end of the sixties the term ''neutron halo'' was introduced to describe this phenomenon, but experimental evidence was scarce or even controversial, and remained so for almost a quarter of a century. Recently, the Warsaw/Munich/Berlin collaboration working within the PS203 experiment at CERN's LEAR low energy antiproton ring, proposed a new method to study the nuclear periphery using stopped antiprotons. The halo now looks firmer. A 200 MeV/c beam of antiprotons was slowed down by interactions with atomic electrons. When antiproton kinetic energy drops well below 1 keV, the particles are captured in the outermost orbits of ''exotic atoms'', where the antiprotons take the place of the usual orbital electrons. With the lower orbits in this antiprotonic atom empty, the antiproton drops toward the nuclear surface, first emitting Auger electrons and later predominantly antiprotonic X-rays. Due to the strong interaction between antiprotons and nucleons, the antiproton succumbs to annihilation with a nucleon in the rarified nuclear stratosphere, far above the innermost Bohr orbit of the atom. The annihilation probability in heavy nuclei is maximal where the nuclear density is about 3% of its central value and extends to densities many orders of magnitude smaller

  16. CERN: Antiprotons probe the nuclear stratosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1995-06-15

    The outer periphery of heavy stable nuclei is notoriously difficult to study experimentally. While the well understood electromagnetic interaction between electrons (or muons) and protons has given the nuclear charge (or proton) distribution with high precision for almost all stable nuclei, neutron distribution studies are much less precise. This is especially true for large nuclear distances, where the nuclear density is small. A few previous experiments probing the nuclear ''stratosphere'' suggested that far from the centre of the nucleus (of the order of 2 nuclear radii) this stratosphere may be composed predominantly of neutrons. At the end of the sixties the term ''neutron halo'' was introduced to describe this phenomenon, but experimental evidence was scarce or even controversial, and remained so for almost a quarter of a century. Recently, the Warsaw/Munich/Berlin collaboration working within the PS203 experiment at CERN's LEAR low energy antiproton ring, proposed a new method to study the nuclear periphery using stopped antiprotons. The halo now looks firmer. A 200 MeV/c beam of antiprotons was slowed down by interactions with atomic electrons. When antiproton kinetic energy drops well below 1 keV, the particles are captured in the outermost orbits of ''exotic atoms'', where the antiprotons take the place of the usual orbital electrons. With the lower orbits in this antiprotonic atom empty, the antiproton drops toward the nuclear surface, first emitting Auger electrons and later predominantly antiprotonic X-rays. Due to the strong interaction between antiprotons and nucleons, the antiproton succumbs to annihilation with a nucleon in the rarified nuclear stratosphere, far above the innermost Bohr orbit of the atom. The annihilation probability in heavy nuclei is maximal where the nuclear density is about 3% of its central value and extends to densities many orders of magnitude smaller. Antiproton annihilation on a proton or on a neutron at the nuclear

  17. The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Bittner, M.; Timmreck, C.; Schmidt, H.

    2014-12-01

    Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stra