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Sample records for stratiform precipitation regions

  1. VHF signal power suppression in stratiform and convective precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. McDonald

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have indicated that VHF clear-air radar return strengths are reduced during periods of precipitation. This study aims to examine whether the type of precipitation, stratiform and convective precipitation types are identified, has any impact on the relationships previously observed and to examine the possible mechanisms which produce this phenomenon. This study uses a combination of UHF and VHF wind-profiler data to define periods associated with stratiform and convective precipitation. This identification is achieved using an algorithm which examines the range squared corrected signal to noise ratio of the UHF returns for a bright band signature for stratiform precipitation. Regions associated with convective rainfall have been defined by identifying regions of enhanced range corrected signal to noise ratio that do not display a bright band structure and that are relatively uniform until a region above the melting layer. This study uses a total of 68 days, which incorporated significant periods of surface rainfall, between 31 August 2000 and 28 February 2002 inclusive from Aberystwyth (52.4° N, 4.1° W. Examination suggests that both precipitation types produce similar magnitude reductions in VHF signal power on average. However, the frequency of occurrence of statistically significant reductions in VHF signal power are very different. In the altitude range 2-4 km stratiform precipitation is related to VHF signal suppression approximately 50% of the time while in convective precipitation suppression is observed only 27% of the time. This statistical result suggests that evaporation, which occurs more often in stratiform precipitation, is important in reducing the small-scale irregularities in humidity and thereby the radio refractive index. A detailed case study presented also suggests that evaporation reducing small-scale irregularities in humidity may contribute to the observed VHF signal suppression.

  2. VHF signal power suppression in stratiform and convective precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. McDonald

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have indicated that VHF clear-air radar return strengths are reduced during periods of precipitation. This study aims to examine whether the type of precipitation, stratiform and convective precipitation types are identified, has any impact on the relationships previously observed and to examine the possible mechanisms which produce this phenomenon. This study uses a combination of UHF and VHF wind-profiler data to define periods associated with stratiform and convective precipitation. This identification is achieved using an algorithm which examines the range squared corrected signal to noise ratio of the UHF returns for a bright band signature for stratiform precipitation. Regions associated with convective rainfall have been defined by identifying regions of enhanced range corrected signal to noise ratio that do not display a bright band structure and that are relatively uniform until a region above the melting layer.

    This study uses a total of 68 days, which incorporated significant periods of surface rainfall, between 31 August 2000 and 28 February 2002 inclusive from Aberystwyth (52.4° N, 4.1° W. Examination suggests that both precipitation types produce similar magnitude reductions in VHF signal power on average. However, the frequency of occurrence of statistically significant reductions in VHF signal power are very different. In the altitude range 2-4 km stratiform precipitation is related to VHF signal suppression approximately 50% of the time while in convective precipitation suppression is observed only 27% of the time. This statistical result suggests that evaporation, which occurs more often in stratiform precipitation, is important in reducing the small-scale irregularities in humidity and thereby the radio refractive index. A detailed case study presented also suggests that evaporation reducing small-scale irregularities in humidity may contribute to the observed VHF signal

  3. Diurnal phase of late-night against late-afternoon of stratiform and convective precipitation in summer southern contiguous China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Rucong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); China Meteorological Administration, LaSW, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China); Yuan, Weihua [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Li, Jian [China Meteorological Administration, LaSW, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China); Fu, Yunfei [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing and Climate Environment, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2010-09-15

    Using the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations combined with the surface rain gauge data during 1998-2006, the robust diurnal features of summer stratiform and convective precipitation over the southern contiguous China are revealed by exploring the diurnal variations of rain rate and precipitation profile. The precipitation over the southern contiguous China exhibits two distinguishing diurnal phases: late-night (2200-0600 LST) and late-afternoon (1400-2200 LST), dependent on the location, precipitation type and duration time. Generally, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile of stratiform precipitation occur in the late-afternoon (late-night) over the southeastern (southwestern) China, while most of the stratiform short-duration rain rate tends to present late-afternoon peaks over the southern China. For convective precipitation, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile occur in the late-afternoon over most of the southern contiguous China, while the convective long-duration rain rate exhibits late-night peaks over the southwestern China. Without regional dependence, the convective precipitation exhibits much larger amplitude of diurnal variations in both near surface rain rate and vertical extension compared with stratiform precipitation and the convective rain top rises most rapidly between noon and afternoon. However, there are two distinctive sub-regions. The diurnal phases of precipitation there are very weakly dependent on precipitation type and duration time. Over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, the maximum rain rate and the highest profile of either convective or stratiform precipitation occur in the late-night. Over the southeastern coastal regions, both the near surface rain rate and rain top of convective and stratiform precipitation peak in the late-afternoon. (orig.)

  4. Microphysical characteristics of squall-line stratiform precipitation and transition zones inferred using an ice particle property-evolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, A. A.; Harrington, J. Y.; Morrison, H.

    2017-12-01

    A quasi-idealized 3D squall line (based on a June 2007 Oklahoma case) is simulated using a novel bulk microphysics scheme called the Ice-Spheroids Habit Model with Aspect-ratio Evolution (ISHMAEL). In ISHMAEL, the evolution of ice particle properties, such as mass, shape, maximum diameter, density, and fall speed, are tracked as these properties evolve from vapor growth, sublimation, riming, and melting. Thus, ice properties evolve from various microphysical processes without needing separate unrimed and rimed ice categories. Simulation results show that ISHMAEL produces both a squall-line transition zone and an enhanced stratiform precipitation region. The ice particle properties produced in this simulation are analyzed and compared to observations to determine the characteristics of ice that lead to the development of these squall-line features. It is shown that rimed particles advected rearward from the convective region produce the enhanced stratiform precipitation region. The development of the transition zone results from hydrometer sorting: the evolution of ice particle properties in the convective region produces specific fall speeds that favor significant ice advecting rearward of the transition zone before reaching the melting level, causing a local minimum in precipitation rate and reflectivity there. Microphysical sensitivity studies, for example turning rime splintering off, that lead to changes in ice particle properties reveal that the fall speed of ice particles largely determines both the location of the enhanced stratiform precipitation region and whether or not a transition zone forms.

  5. Analysis of 35 GHz Cloud Radar polarimetric variables to identify stratiform and convective precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Emmanuel; Illingworth, Anthony, J.; Stein, Thorwald

    2017-04-01

    This study is performed using vertical profiles of radar measurements at 35GHz, for the period going from 29th of February to 1rst October 2016, at the Chilbolton observatory in United Kingdom. During this period, more than 40 days with precipitation events are investigated. The investigation uses the synergy of radar reflectivity factors, vertical velocity, Doppler spectrum width, and linear depolarization ratio (LDR) to differentiate between stratiform and convective rain events. The depth of the layer with Doppler spectrum width values greater than 0.5 m s-1 is shown to be a suitable proxy to distinguish between convective and stratiform events. Using LDR to detect the radar bright band, bright band characteristics such as depth of the layer and maximum LDR are shown to vary with the amount of turbulence aloft. Profiles of radar measurements are also compared to rain gauge measurements to study the contribution of convective and stratiform rainfall to total rain duration and amount. To conclude, this study points out differences between convective and stratiform rains and quantifies their contributions over a precipitation event, highlighting that convective and stratiform rainfall should be considered as a continuum rather than a dichotomy.

  6. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

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    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-02-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar rainfall estimates starts to decrease at relatively close ranges. In the current study, the hydrological potential of weather radar is analyzed during a winter half-year for the hilly region of the Belgian Ardennes. A correction algorithm is proposed which corrects the radar data for errors related to attenuation, ground clutter, anomalous propagation, the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR), and advection. No final bias correction with respect to rain gauge data was implemented because such an adjustment would not add to a better understanding of the quality of the radar data. The impact of the different corrections is assessed using rainfall information sampled by 42 hourly rain gauges. The largest improvement in the quality of the radar data is obtained by correcting for ground clutter. The impact of VPR correction and advection depends on the spatial variability and velocity of the precipitation system. Overall during the winter period, the radar underestimates the amount of precipitation as compared to the rain gauges. Remaining differences between both instruments can be attributed to spatial and temporal variability in the type of precipitation, which has not been taken into account.

  7. Radar rainfall estimation of stratiform winter precipitation in the Belgian Ardennes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2011-01-01

    Radars are known for their ability to obtain a wealth of information about spatial storm field characteristics. Unfortunately, rainfall estimates obtained by this instrument are known to be affected by multiple sources of error. Especially for stratiform precipitation systems, the quality of radar

  8. Intercomparison of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds

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    Muhlbauer, A.; Hashino, T.; Xue, L.; Teller, A.; Lohmann, U.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Geresdi, I.; Pan, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols serve as a source of both cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) and affect microphysical properties of clouds. Increasing aerosol number concentrations is hypothesized to retard the cloud droplet coalescence and the riming in mixed-phase clouds, thereby decreasing orographic precipitation. This study presents results from a model intercomparison of 2-D simulations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds. The sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changes in the aerosol number concentrations is analysed and compared for various dynamical and thermodynamical situations. Furthermore, the sensitivities of microphysical processes such as coalescence, aggregation, riming and diffusional growth to changes in the aerosol number concentrations are evaluated and compared. The participating numerical models are the model from the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) with bulk microphysics, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with bin microphysics and the University of Wisconsin modeling system (UWNMS) with a spectral ice habit prediction microphysics scheme. All models are operated on a cloud-resolving scale with 2 km horizontal grid spacing. The results of the model intercomparison suggest that the sensitivity of orographic precipitation to aerosol modifications varies greatly from case to case and from model to model. Neither a precipitation decrease nor a precipitation increase is found robustly in all simulations. Qualitative robust results can only be found for a subset of the simulations but even then quantitative agreement is scarce. Estimates of the aerosol effect on orographic precipitation are found to range from -19% to 0% depending on the simulated case and the model. Similarly, riming is shown to decrease in some cases and models whereas it increases in others, which implies that a decrease in riming with increasing aerosol load is not a robust result

  9. Retrieving latent heating vertical structure from cloud and precipitation profiles—Part II: Deep convective and stratiform rain processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Rui; Min, Qilong; Wu, Xiaoqing; Fu, Yunfei

    2013-01-01

    An exploratory study on physical based latent heat (LH) retrieval algorithm is conducted by parameterizing the physical linkages between observed cloud and precipitation profiles to the major processes of phase change of atmospheric water. Specifically, rain is segregated into three rain types: warm, convective, and stratiform rain, based on their dynamical and thermodynamical characteristics. As the second of series, both convective and stratiform rain LH algorithms are presented and evaluated here. For convective and stratiform rain, the major LH-related microphysical processes including condensation, deposition, evaporation, sublimation, and freezing–melting are parameterized with the aid of Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations. The condensation and deposition processes are parameterized in terms of rain formation processes through the precipitation formation theory. LH associated with the freezing–melting process is relatively small and is assumed to be a fraction of total condensation and deposition LH. The evaporation and sublimation processes are parameterized for three unsaturated scenarios: rain out of the cloud body, clouds at cloud boundary and clouds and rain in downdraft region. The evaluation or self-consistency test indicates the retrievals capture the major features of LH profiles and reproduce the double peaks at right altitudes. The LH products are applicable at various stages of cloud system life cycle for high-resolution models, as well as for large-scale climate models. -- Highlights: ► An exploratory study on physics-based cold rain latent heat retrieval algorithm. ► Utilize the full information of the vertical structures of cloud and rainfall. ► Include all major LH-related microphysical processes (in ice and liquid phase). ► Directly link water mass measurements to latent heat at instantaneous pixel level. ► Applicable at various stages of cloud system life cycle

  10. Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Processes and their Relationship to Latent Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Steve; Zeng, Xiping; Shige, Shoichi; Takayabu, Yukari

    2009-01-01

    The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. An improved convective -stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm has been developed to obtain the 3D structure of cloud heating over the Tropics based on two sources of information: 1) rainfall information, namely its amount and the fraction due to light rain intensity, observed directly from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite and 2) synthetic cloud physics information obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of cloud systems. The cloud simulations provide details on cloud processes, specifically latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence and radiative heating/cooling, that. are not directly observable by satellite. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. One of the major differences between new and old algorithms is that the level of maximum cloud heating occurs 1 to 1.5 km lower in the atmosphere in the new algorithm. This can effect the structure of the implied air currents associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere in the Tropics. The new CSH algorithm will be used provide retrieved heating data to other heating algorithms to supplement their performance.

  11. Comment on 'Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods' by Matthias Steiner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Steve; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Ferrier, B.

    2003-01-01

    Despite the obvious notion that the presence of hail or graupel is a good indication of convection, the model results show this does not provide an objective benchmark partly due to the unrealistic presence of small amounts of hail or graupel throughout the anvil in the model but mainly because of the significant amounts of hail or graupel, especially in the tropical TOGA COARE simulation, in the transition zone. Without use of a "transition" category, it is open to debate as how this region should best be defined, as stratiform or as convective. So, the presence of significant hail or graupel contents in this zone significantly degrades its use an objective benchmark for convection. The separation algorithm comparison was done in the context of a cloud-resolving model. These models are widely used and serve a variety of purposes especially with regard to retrieving information that cannot be directly measured by providing synthetic data sets that are consistent and complete. Separation algorithms are regularly applied in these models. However, as with any modeling system, these types 'of models are constantly being improved to overcome any known deficiencies and make them more accurate representations of observed systems. The presence of hail and graupel in the anvil and the bias towards heavy rainfall rates are two such examples of areas that need improvement. Since, both of these can effect the perceived performance of the separation algorithms, the Lang et al. (2003) study did not want to overstate the relative performance of any specific algorithms.

  12. Analysis of the moments and parameters of a gamma DSD to infer precipitation properties: A convective stratiform discrimination algorithm

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    Caracciolo, C.; Prodi, F.; Battaglia, A.; Porcu', F.

    2006-05-01

    Drop size distribution is a fundamental property of rainfall for two main reasons: the shape of the distribution reflects the physics of rain formation processes, and it is of basic importance in determining most parameters used in radar-meteorology. Therefore, several authors have proposed in the past different parameterizations for the drop size distribution (DSD). The present work focuses attention on the gamma DSD properties, assumed to be the most suitable for describing the observed DSD and its variability. The data set comprises about 3 years of data (2001-2004) for about 1900 min of rain, collected in Ferrara in the Po Valley (Northern Italy) by a Joss and Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer. A new method of moments to determine the three gamma DSD parameters is developed and tested; this method involves the fourth, fifth and sixth moments of the DSD, which are less sensitive to the underestimation of small drops in the JW disdrometer. The method has been validated by comparing the observed rainfall rates with the computed ones from the fitted distribution, using two classical expressions for the hydrometeor terminal velocity. The 1-min observed spectra of some representative events that occurred in Ferrara are also presented, showing that with sufficient averaging, the distribution for the Ferrara rainfall can be approximately described by a gamma distribution. The discrimination of convective and stratiform precipitation is also an issue of intense interest. Over the past years, several works have aimed to discriminate between these two precipitation categories, on the basis of different instruments and techniques. The knowledge of the three gamma DSD parameters computed with the new method of moments is exploited to identify some characteristic parameters that give quantitative and useful information on the precipitation type and intensity. First, a key parameter derived from the knowledge of two gamma DSD parameters ( m and Λ), the peak (or modal) diameter Dp

  13. Biogenic emissions and biomass burning influences on the chemistry of the fogwater and stratiform precipitations in the African equatorial forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacaux, J. P.; Loemba-Ndembi, J.; Lefeivre, B.; Cros, B.; Delmas, R.

    An automatic wet-only precipitation collector and a fogwater collector were operated in the coastal forest of equatorial Congo (Dimonika), for a complete seasonal cycle (November 1986-September 1987). Inorganic (Na +, K +, NH 4+, Ca 2+, NO 3-, Cl -, SO 42-) and organic (HCOO -, CH 3COO -) ions were determined in 33 stratiform rain events and nine fog events. With the raindrop size distributions, measured over a 1 year period (June 1988-June 1989) at the site of Enyelé in the Equatorial forest of Congo, were established the relationship between the liquid water content ( LWC in gm -3) and the rate of rainfall ( R in mm h -1) for the stratiform rains: LWC = 0.055 × R0.871 with a correlation coefficient of 0.98. Taking into account the dilution effect due to LWC, ionic concentrations of fogwater and stratiform precipitation are enriched during the dry season. In particular, K +, NO 3-, SO 42- and Ca 2+ are considerably enriched indicating the seasonal influence of the biomass burning due to savanna fires and terrigenous source from deserts of the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of the chemical contents of fogwater—which mainly represents the local emission of the forest—and stratiform precipitation—which represent the air chemical content of the planetary boundary layer—during the dry season enabled us to show the following. Fog and rain with comparable chemical contents in mineral elements indicate a generalized contamination of the boundary layer by marine (Na +, Cl -), terrigenous (Ca 2+) and above all by biomass burning (K +, NO 3-, SO 42-) sources. The organic content (HCOO -, CH 3COO -) higher for the fogs than for rains, unexplainable by the dilution effect, has its source at a local level in the forest ecosystem. The estimation, from the organic content of fog and rain, of the gaseous concentrations of formic and acetic acids confirm the production of carboxylic acids measured in Amazonia during ABLE (for HCOOH : 510 ppt at canopy level and 170 ppt

  14. Mesoscale kinematics derived from X-band Doppler radar observations of convective versus stratiform precipitation and comparison with GPS radiosonde profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Sachin M.; Dhangar, N.; Das, S. K.; Kalapureddy, M. C. R.; Chakravarty, K.; Sonbawne, S.; Konwar, M.

    2015-11-01

    Single Doppler analysis techniques known as velocity azimuth display (VAD) and volume velocity processing (VVP) are used to analyze kinematics of mesoscale flow such as horizontal wind and divergence using X-band Doppler weather radar observations, for selected cases of convective, stratiform, and shallow cloud systems near tropical Indian sites Pune (18.58°N, 73.92°E, above sea level (asl) 560 m) and Mandhardev (18.51°N, 73.85°E, asl 1297 m). The vertical profiles of horizontal wind estimated from radar VVP/VAD methods agree well with GPS radiosonde profiles, with the low-level jet at about 1.5 km during monsoon season well depicted in both. The vertical structure and temporal variability of divergence and reflectivity profiles are indicative of the dynamical and microphysical characteristics of shallow convective, deep convective, and stratiform cloud systems. In shallow convective systems, vertical development of reflectivity profiles is limited below 5 km. In deep convective systems, reflectivity values as large as 55 dBZ were observed above freezing level. The stratiform system shows the presence of a reflectivity bright band (~35 dBZ) near the melting level. The diagnosed vertical profiles of divergence in convective and stratiform systems are distinct. In shallow convective conditions, convergence was seen below 4 km with divergence above. Low-level convergence and upper level divergence are observed in deep convective profiles, while stratiform precipitation has midlevel convergence present between lower level and upper level divergence. The divergence profiles in stratiform precipitation exhibit intense shallow layers of "melting convergence" at 0°C level, near 4.5 km altitude, with a steep gradient on the both sides of the peak. The level of nondivergence in stratiform situations is lower than that in convective situations. These observed vertical structures of divergence are largely indicative of latent heating profiles in the atmosphere, an

  15. Numerical simulation of mesoscale surface pressure features with trailing stratiform squall lines using WRF -ARW model over Gangetic West Bengal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawn, Soma; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

    2018-01-01

    In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the simulation of mesoscale surface pressure patterns like pre-squall mesolow, mesohigh and wake low associated with leading convective line-trailing stratiform (TS) squall lines over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB). For this purpose, a two way interactive triple nested domain with high resolution WRF model having2 km grid length in the innermost domain is used. The model simulated results are compared with the available in-situ observations obtained as a part of Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme, reflectivity products of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Kolkata and TRMM rainfall. Three TS squall lines (15 May 2009, 5 May 2010 and 7 May 2010) are chosen during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season for this study. The model simulated results of diurnal variation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction at the station Kharagpur in GWB region reveal a sudden fall in temperature, increase in the amount of relative humidity and sudden rise in wind speed during the arrival of the storms. Such results are well comparable with the observations though there are some leading or lagging of time in respect of actual occurrences of such events. The study indicates that the model is able to predict the occurrences of three typical surface pressure features namely: pre-squall mesolow, meso high and wake low. The predicted surface parameters like accumulated rainfall, maximum reflectivity and vertical profiles (temperature, relative humidity and winds) are well accorded with the observations. The convective and stratiform precipitation region of the TS squall lines are well represented by the model. A strong downdraft is observed to be a contributory factor for formation of mesohigh in the convective region of the squall line. Wake low is observed to reside in the stratiform rain region and the descending dry air at this place has triggered the wake low through adiabatic

  16. Convective-stratiform rainfall separation of Typhoon Fitow (2013: A 3D WRF modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiyan Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface precipitation budget equation in a three-dimensional (3D WRF model framework is derived. By applying the convective-stratiform partition method to the surface precipitation budget equation in the 3D model, this study separated convective and stratiform rainfall of typhoon Fitow (2013. The separations are further verified by examining statistics of vertical velocity, surface precipitation budget, and cloud microphysical budget. Results show that water vapor convergence moistens local atmosphere and offsets hydrometeor divergence, and producing convective rainfall, while hydrometeor convergence primarily supports stratiform rainfall, since water vapor divergence and local atmospheric drying generally cancelled out. Mean ascending motions are prevailing in the entire troposphere in the convective region, whereas mean descending motions occur below 5 km and mean ascending motions occur above in the stratiform region. The frequency distribution of vertical velocity shows vertical velocity has wide distribution with the maximum values up to 13 m s-1 in the convective regions, whereas it has narrow distribution with absolute values confined within 7 m s-1 in the stratiform region. Liquid cloud microphysics is dominant in convective regions and ice cloud microphysics is dominant in stratiform regions. These indicate that the statistics results are generally consistent with the corresponding physical characteristics of the convective-stratiform rainfall structures generalized by previous studies.

  17. Changes in Stratiform Clouds of Mesoscale Convective Complex Introduced by Dust Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B.; Min, Q.-L.; Li, R.

    2010-01-01

    Aerosols influence the earth s climate through direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects. There are large uncertainties in quantifying these effects due to limited measurements and observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. As a major terrestrial source of atmospheric aerosols, dusts may serve as a significant climate forcing for the changing climate because of its effect on solar and thermal radiation as well as on clouds and precipitation processes. Latest satellites measurements enable us to determine dust aerosol loadings and cloud distributions and can potentially be used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimations of aerosol effects on climate. This study uses sensors on various satellites to investigate the impact of mineral dust on cloud microphysical and precipitation processes in mesoscale convective complex (MCC). A trans-Atlantic dust outbreak of Saharan origin occurring in early March 2004 is considered. For the observed MCCs under a given convective strength, small hydrometeors were found more prevalent in the dusty stratiform regions than in those regions that were dust free. Evidence of abundant cloud ice particles in the dust regions, particularly at altitudes where heterogeneous nucleation of mineral dust prevails, further supports the observed changes of clouds and precipitation. The consequences of the microphysical effects of the dust aerosols were to shift the size spectrum of precipitation-sized hydrometeors from heavy precipitation to light precipitation and ultimately to suppress precipitation and increase the lifecycle of cloud systems, especially over stratiform areas.

  18. Drop Size Distribution - Based Separation of Stratiform and Convective Rain

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    Thurai, Merhala; Gatlin, Patrick; Williams, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    For applications in hydrology and meteorology, it is often desirable to separate regions of stratiform and convective rain from meteorological radar observations, both from ground-based polarimetric radars and from space-based dual frequency radars. In a previous study by Bringi et al. (2009), dual frequency profiler and dual polarization radar (C-POL) observations in Darwin, Australia, had shown that stratiform and convective rain could be separated in the log10(Nw) versus Do domain, where Do is the mean volume diameter and Nw is the scaling parameter which is proportional to the ratio of water content to the mass weighted mean diameter. Note, Nw and Do are two of the main drop size distribution (DSD) parameters. In a later study, Thurai et al (2010) confirmed that both the dual-frequency profiler based stratiform-convective rain separation and the C-POL radar based separation were consistent with each other. In this paper, we test this separation method using DSD measurements from a ground based 2D video disdrometer (2DVD), along with simultaneous observations from a collocated, vertically-pointing, X-band profiling radar (XPR). The measurements were made in Huntsville, Alabama. One-minute DSDs from 2DVD are used as input to an appropriate gamma fitting procedure to determine Nw and Do. The fitted parameters - after averaging over 3-minutes - are plotted against each other and compared with a predefined separation line. An index is used to determine how far the points lie from the separation line (as described in Thurai et al. 2010). Negative index values indicate stratiform rain and positive index indicate convective rain, and, moreover, points which lie somewhat close to the separation line are considered 'mixed' or 'transition' type precipitation. The XPR observations are used to evaluate/test the 2DVD data-based classification. A 'bright-band' detection algorithm was used to classify each vertical reflectivity profile as either stratiform or convective

  19. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  20. Regional climate scenarios - A study on precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Boessing Christensen, O.

    2001-01-01

    A set of nested climate change simulations for the Nordic region and Denmark has been revisited. In the present work we have re-examined the results of CCMB and MBC with special emphasis on precipitation intensity frequencies, in particular the more extreme part of the frequency distribution. It has been demonstrated that the role of extreme precipitation events appears to be more realistically described in a high-resolution model, in terms of numerical agreement as well as seasonal variation. This is mainly due to a better simulation of deep low-pressure systems and mesoscale circulation. Generally, the analysis has confirmed the results from CCMB, but furthermore a resolution effect has been identified which seems essential to the understanding of climate change effects on the extreme end of the precipitation intensity distribution. In order to analyse the role of the model resolution we have aggregated both the nested model data and observational records to the GCM grid from the driving AOGCM. It was found that, in spite of changes in absolute numbers, the seasonal behaviour of decay constants does not change appreciably because of the aggregation. The RCM results show a seasonal behaviour very similar to an observed data set. It is therefore concluded that the GCM has an unrealistic simulation of the dependence of heavy precipitation on climate, as manifested in seasonal variation. In contrast, the regional simulations remain close to observation in this respect. Furthermore, they agree on a conclusion that extreme precipitation generally scales with average precipitation (no significant change in decay constants were detected), but that crucial summer season may be an exception, exhibiting an anomalous increase in heavy precipitation due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The analysis has only been performed over Denmark due to lack of daily observational data for other regions. It is, however, necessary to extend the work to other areas, for instance

  1. Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, Sreekanth T.

    begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

  2. A stratiform cloud parameterization for General Circulation Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in the application of these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop a paxameterization for stratiform clouds in GCMs that expresses stratiform clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. In this parameterization, precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  3. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  4. Self-organizing map network-based precipitation regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau and regional precipitation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan

    2017-12-01

    A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.

  5. Influence of aerosol on regional precipitation in North China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Jing; MAO JieTai

    2009-01-01

    The possible anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional precipitation is analyzed based on the historical data of precipitation and visibility of North China. At first, the precipitation amounts from 1960 to 1979 are considered as natural background values in our study for relatively less intensive industrial activi-ties and light air pollution during that period of time, then the region is divided into different subregions by applying the clustering method including the significance test of station rainfall correlations to the time series of 10-day mean rainfall amounts in this period. Based on the rule that the precipitation characteristics are similar in the same clustering region, the correlation of precipitation amounts among all stations in each region is thus established. Secondly, for the period from 1990 to 2005, during which, the economy had experienced a rapid development in this region, the variations of visibility at each station are analyzed. The stations with the absolute change in visibility less than 0.1 km/a are used as the reference stations, at which it is assumed that precipitation has not been seriously influ-enced by anthropogenic aerosols. Then the rainfall amounts of reference stations are used to estimate the natural precipitation values of the other stations in each clustering region. The difference between estimated precipitation and measured precipitation amount is thought to result from changes in an-thropogenic aerosols. These changes in precipitation amounts caused by anthropogenic aerosols at each station are calculated using the 10-day mean rainfall values from 1990 to 2005. The analysis re-suits obtained with this method are remarkable if it passes the significance test, and therefore, the suppression of regional precipitation over the region by anthropogenic aerosol is proved. It is found that this effect is most remarkable in summer. The influence of anthropogenic aerosols on convective precipitation possibly plays an important

  6. Interannual variation of annual precipitation and urban effect on precipitation in the Beijing region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region. The results show that: the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of - 1.197/10 yr, which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years; the local annual precipitation anomalies (percent of the normal 1960-2000) show a positive center near the urban area, i.e. urban precipitation island (UPI), whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0. 6621%/10 yr, opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region; changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation, and when the synoptic processes are strong (wet years), the intensity of UPI strengthens, while the synoptic processes are weak (dry years), and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region.

  7. A stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in applying these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop in GCMs a stratiform cloud parameterization that expresses clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. Various clouds variables and their interactions are summarized. Precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  8. Regional climate change: Precipitation variability in mountainous part of Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolova Nina

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of paper is to analyze temporal and spatial changes in monthly precipitation as well as extremely dry and wet months in mountainous part of Bulgaria. Study precipitation variability in mountainous part is very important because this part is the region where the rivers take its source from. Extreme values of monthly precipitation are important information for better understanding of the whole variability and trends in precipitation time series. The mean investigated period is 1951-2005 and the reference period is so called temporary climate - 1961- 1990. Extreme dry precipitation months are defined as a month whose monthly precipitation is lower than 10% of gamma distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. Extreme wet months are determined with respect to 90% percentiles of gamma distribution (monthly precipitation is higher than 90%. The result of the research show that in mountainous part of Bulgaria during 1950s and 1960s number of extremely wet months is higher than number of dry months. Decreasing of monthly precipitation is a feature for 1980s. This dry period continues till 2004. The years 2000 makes impression as driest year in high mountains with about 7 extremely dry months. The second dry year is 1993. The negative precipitation anomaly is most clearly determined during last decade at study area. The present research points out that fluctuation of precipitation in mountainous part of Bulgaria are coinciding with regional and global climate trends.

  9. Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in Iran's Lake Urmia basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazel, Nasim; Berndtsson, Ronny; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Madani, Kaveh; Kløve, Bjørn

    2018-04-01

    Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, once one of the largest hypersaline lakes in the world, has shrunk by almost 90% in area and 80% in volume during the last four decades. To improve the understanding of regional differences in water availability throughout the region and to refine the existing information on precipitation variability, this study investigated the spatial pattern of precipitation for the Lake Urmia basin. Daily rainfall time series from 122 precipitation stations with different record lengths were used to extract 15 statistical descriptors comprising 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal total precipitation. Principal component analysis in association with cluster analysis identified three main homogeneous precipitation groups in the lake basin. The first sub-region (group 1) includes stations located in the center and southeast; the second sub-region (group 2) covers mostly northern and northeastern part of the basin, and the third sub-region (group 3) covers the western and southern edges of the basin. Results of principal component (PC) and clustering analyses showed that seasonal precipitation variation is the most important feature controlling the spatial pattern of precipitation in the lake basin. The 25th and 75th percentiles of winter and autumn are the most important variables controlling the spatial pattern of the first rotated principal component explaining about 32% of the total variance. Summer and spring precipitation variations are the most important variables in the second and third rotated principal components, respectively. Seasonal variation in precipitation amount and seasonality are explained by topography and influenced by the lake and westerly winds that are related to the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Despite using incomplete time series with different lengths, the identified sub-regions are physically meaningful.

  10. A two-component generalized extreme value distribution for precipitation frequency analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Buishand, A.; Roth, M.; Kyselý, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 534, March (2016), s. 659-668 ISSN 0022-1694 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * two-component extreme value distribution * regional frequency analysis * convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169416000500

  11. The occurrence of ice production in slightly supercooled Arctic stratiform clouds as observed by ground-based remote sensors at the ARM NSA site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Damao; Wang, Zhien; Luo, Tao; Yin, Yan; Flynn, Connor

    2017-03-01

    Ice particle formation in slightly supercooled stratiform clouds is not well documented or understood. In this study, 4 years of combined lidar depolarization and radar reflectivity (Ze) measurements are analyzed to distinguish between cold drizzle and ice crystal formations in slightly supercooled Arctic stratiform clouds over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Climate Research Facility North Slope of Alaska Utqiaġvik ("Barrow") site. Ice particles are detected and statistically shown to be responsible for the strong precipitation in slightly supercooled Arctic stratiform clouds at cloud top temperatures as high as -4°C. For ice precipitating Arctic stratiform clouds, the lidar particulate linear depolarization ratio (δpar_lin) correlates well with radar Ze at each temperature range, but the δpar_lin-Ze relationship varies with temperature ranges. In addition, lidar depolarization and radar Ze observations of ice generation characteristics in Arctic stratiform clouds are consistent with laboratory-measured temperature-dependent ice growth habits.

  12. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  13. Constraining precipitation amount and distribution over cold regions using GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrangi, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Gardner, A. S.; Fisher, J.

    2017-12-01

    Current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in high-elevation and high latitude regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here we demonstrate how that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger error. We also observed that as near surface temperature decreases products tend to underestimate accumulated precipitation retrieved from GRACE. The analysis performed using various products such as GPCP, GPCC, TRMM, and gridded station data over vast regions in high latitudes and two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia. Based on the analysis over High Mountain Asia it was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, GPCP showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basin.

  14. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  15. Regional Frequency and Uncertainty Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortuza, M. R.; Demissie, Y.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Increased frequency of extreme precipitations, especially those with multiday durations, are responsible for recent urban floods and associated significant losses of lives and infrastructures in Bangladesh. Reliable and routinely updated estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme precipitation events are thus important for developing up-to-date hydraulic structures and stormwater drainage system that can effectively minimize future risk from similar events. In this study, we have updated the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Bangladesh using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2010 and quantified associated uncertainties. Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments is applied on 1-day, 2-day and 5-day annual maximum precipitation series due to its advantages over at-site estimation. The regional frequency approach pools the information from climatologically similar sites to make reliable estimates of quantiles given that the pooling group is homogeneous and of reasonable size. We have used Region of influence (ROI) approach along with homogeneity measure based on L-moments to identify the homogenous pooling groups for each site. Five 3-parameter distributions (i.e., Generalized Logistic, Generalized Extreme value, Generalized Normal, Pearson Type Three, and Generalized Pareto) are used for a thorough selection of appropriate models that fit the sample data. Uncertainties related to the selection of the distributions and historical data are quantified using the Bayesian Model Averaging and Balanced Bootstrap approaches respectively. The results from this study can be used to update the current design and management of hydraulic structures as well as in exploring spatio-temporal variations of extreme precipitation and associated risk.

  16. Urbanization signatures in strong versus weak precipitation over the Pearl River Delta metropolitan regions of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Weibiao; Chen Sheng; Wen Zhiping; Wang Baomin; Chen Guixing; Sha Weimin; Luo Cong; Feng Yerong

    2011-01-01

    We assess the issues of urban effects on the precipitation over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) metropolitan regions of China. The spatial and temporal variations of strong versus weak precipitation over the PRD and surrounding nonurban areas are investigated. The results show that the urbanization signatures in strong precipitation are significantly different from those in weak precipitation over the urban areas. The PRD experiences more strong precipitation but less weak precipitation compared to surrounding nonurban regions. In addition, the strong precipitation over the PRD displays a pronounced seasonal variation. The seasonality of weak precipitation, however, is much weaker over the PRD compared to the surrounding nonurban regions. Moreover, a strengthening in the precipitation intensity, a reduction in the rainfall frequency and an increase in the convective precipitation as well as the afternoon precipitation are found over the urban areas, which are probably associated with the abundance in strong precipitation and the deficit in weak precipitation over the PRD.

  17. Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hnilica, Jan; Hanel, M.; Puš, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2017), s. 2934-2946 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-05665S Grant - others:Grantová agentura ČR - GA ČR(CZ) 16-16549S Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : bias correction * regional climate model * correlation * covariance * multivariate data * multisite correction * principal components * precipitation Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  18. The response of a simulated mesoscale convective system to increased aerosol pollution: Part I: Precipitation intensity, distribution, and efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavner, Michal; Cotton, William R.; van den Heever, Susan C.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Pierce, Jeffery R.

    2018-01-01

    Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are important contributors to rainfall in the High Plains of the United States and elsewhere in the world. It is therefore of interest to understand how different aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) may impact the total amount, rates and spatial distribution of precipitation produced by MCSs. In this study, different aerosol concentrations and their effects on precipitation produced by an MCS are examined by simulating the 8 May 2009 "Super-Derecho" MCS using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with sophisticated aerosol and microphysical parameterizations. Three simulations were conducted that differed only in the initial concentration, spatial distribution, and chemical composition of aerosols. Aerosol fields were derived from the output of GEOS-Chem, a 3D chemical transport numerical model. Results from the RAMS simulations show that the total domain precipitation was not significantly affected by variations in aerosol concentrations, however, the pollution aerosols altered the precipitation characteristics. The more polluted simulations exhibited higher precipitation rates, higher bulk precipitation efficiency, a larger area with heavier precipitation, and a smaller area with lighter precipitation. These differences arose as a result of aerosols enhancing precipitation in the convective region of the MCS while suppressing precipitation from the MCS's stratiform-anvil. In the convective region, several processes likely contributed to an increase of precipitation. First, owing to the very humid environment of this storm, the enhanced amount of cloud water available to be collected overwhelmed the reduction in precipitation efficiency associated with the aerosol-induced production of smaller droplets which led to a net increase in the conversion of cloud droplets to precipitation. Second, higher aerosol concentrations led to invigoration of convective updrafts which

  19. Winter precipitation and cyclones in the Mediterranean region: future climate scenarios in a regional simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lionello

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate projections show higher/lower winter (Dec-Jan-Feb precipitation in the northern/southern Mediterranean region than in present climate conditions. This paper analyzes the results of regional model simulations of the A2 and B2 scenarios, which confirm this opposite precipitation change and link it to the change of cyclone activity. The increase of the winter cyclone activity in future climate scenarios over western Europe is responsible for the larger precipitation at the northern coast of the basin, though the bulk of the change is located outside the Mediterranean region. The reduction of cyclone activity inside the Mediterranean region in future scenarios is responsible for the lower precipitation at the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast.

  20. The Potential of Tropospheric Gradients for Regional Precipitation Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisits, Janina; Möller, Gregor; Wittmann, Christoph; Weber, Robert

    2017-04-01

    Changes of temperature and humidity in the neutral atmosphere cause variations in tropospheric path delays and tropospheric gradients. By estimating zenith wet delays (ZWD) and gradients using a GNSS reference station network the obtained time series provide information about spatial and temporal variations of water vapour in the atmosphere. Thus, GNSS-based tropospheric parameters can contribute to the forecast of regional precipitation events. In a recently finalized master thesis at TU Wien the potential of tropospheric gradients for weather prediction was investigated. Therefore, ZWD and gradient time series at selected GNSS reference stations were compared to precipitation data over a period of six months (April to September 2014). The selected GNSS stations form two test areas within Austria. All required meteorological data was provided by the Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). Two characteristics in ZWD and gradient time series can be anticipated in case of an approaching weather front. First, an induced asymmetry in tropospheric delays results in both, an increased magnitude of the gradient and in gradients pointing towards the weather front. Second, an increase in ZWD reflects the increased water vapour concentration right before a precipitation event. To investigate these characteristics exemplary test events were processed. On the one hand, the sequence of the anticipated increase in ZWD at each GNSS station obtained by cross correlation of the time series indicates the direction of the approaching weather front. On the other hand, the corresponding peak in gradient time series allows the deduction of the direction of movement as well. To verify the results precipitation data from ZAMG was used. It can be deduced, that tropospheric gradients show high potential for predicting precipitation events. While ZWD time series rather indicate the orientation of the air mass boundary, gradients rather indicate the direction of movement

  1. Relationship between Birkeland current regions, particle precipitation, and electric fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaujardiere, O. de la; Watermann, J.; Newell, P.; Rich, F.

    1993-01-01

    The authors study relationships between particle precipitation, currents, and convection, using data from DMSP observations and observations of the Sondrestrom radar. They adopt the classification of Newell et al., who defined five different classes of particle populations observed in satellite crossings of auroral regions. Observations were limited to prenoon local times. The advantage of the DMSP data is that it is part of a consistent 10 year observation mission which provides a broad replicated data set. It is difficult to specify with certainty the polar cap boundary from DMSP data alone

  2. Identification and uncertainty estimation of vertical reflectivity profiles using a Lagrangian approach to support quantitative precipitation measurements by weather radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Leijnse, H.; Delrieu, G.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2013-09-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) from volumetric weather radar data using both a traditional Eulerian as well as a newly proposed Lagrangian implementation. For this latter implementation, the recently developed Rotational Carpenter Square Cluster Algorithm (RoCaSCA) is used to delineate precipitation regions at different reflectivity levels. A piecewise linear VPR is estimated for either stratiform or neither stratiform/convective precipitation. As a second aspect of this paper, a novel approach is presented which is able to account for the impact of VPR uncertainty on the estimated radar rainfall variability. Results show that implementation of the VPR identification and correction procedure has a positive impact on quantitative precipitation estimates from radar. Unfortunately, visibility problems severely limit the impact of the Lagrangian implementation beyond distances of 100 km. However, by combining this procedure with the global Eulerian VPR estimation procedure for a given rainfall type (stratiform and neither stratiform/convective), the quality of the quantitative precipitation estimates increases up to a distance of 150 km. Analyses of the impact of VPR uncertainty shows that this aspect accounts for a large fraction of the differences between weather radar rainfall estimates and rain gauge measurements.

  3. Climate change scenarios of convective and large-scale precipitation in the Czech Republic based on EURO-CORDEX data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rulfová, Zuzana; Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 5 (2017), s. 2451-2465 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : convective precipitation * stratiform precipitation * regional climate models * climate change * EURO-CORDEX * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/joc.4857/abstract

  4. Chemical composition of precipitation in a Mexican Maya region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, H. A.; Saavedra, M. I. R.; Sánchez, P. A.; Torres, R. J.; Granada, L. M. M.

    The chemical characteristics of wet precipitation in Puerto Morelos, Quintana Roo State, Mexico, were measured from April 1994 to December 1995. Puerto Morelos is located in the Caribbean Mayan coastal region of the Peninsula of Yucatan, and is normally exposed to winds from the Caribbean region. Wetfall was analyzed for pH, conductivity and Cl -, NO 3-, SO 42-, Na +, NH 4+, K +, Mg 2+ and Ca 2+ ion concentrations. Volume-weighted mean pH for the whole sampling period was 5.35, although values as low as 4.6 were measured in several rain samples. Concentrations of all species correlated negatively with rain volume. Sea-salt aerosols contributed with most of the Na +, Cl -, Mg 2+, K + and SO 42- found in wet precipitation. The mean [SO 42-excess] was 9.7 μEq l -1, which agrees with the background hemispheric values of ≈10 μEq l -1 reported elsewhere. The mean [NO 3-] was 11.4 μEq l -1, almost four times higher than the background hemispheric value of ≈2.5 μEq l -1 reported elsewhere. However, a major component causing the slight acidity character of rain in Puerto Morelos seems to be H 2SO 4.

  5. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

    2017-01-01

    of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC

  6. Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

  7. A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

  8. STAMMEX high resolution gridded daily precipitation dataset over Germany: a new potential for regional precipitation climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolina, Olga; Simmer, Clemens; Kapala, Alice; Mächel, Hermann; Gulev, Sergey; Groisman, Pavel

    2014-05-01

    We present new high resolution precipitation daily grids developed at Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn and German Weather Service (DWD) under the STAMMEX project (Spatial and Temporal Scales and Mechanisms of Extreme Precipitation Events over Central Europe). Daily precipitation grids have been developed from the daily-observing precipitation network of DWD, which runs one of the World's densest rain gauge networks comprising more than 7500 stations. Several quality-controlled daily gridded products with homogenized sampling were developed covering the periods 1931-onwards (with 0.5 degree resolution), 1951-onwards (0.25 degree and 0.5 degree), and 1971-2000 (0.1 degree). Different methods were tested to select the best gridding methodology that minimizes errors of integral grid estimates over hilly terrain. Besides daily precipitation values with uncertainty estimates (which include standard estimates of the kriging uncertainty as well as error estimates derived by a bootstrapping algorithm), the STAMMEX data sets include a variety of statistics that characterize temporal and spatial dynamics of the precipitation distribution (quantiles, extremes, wet/dry spells, etc.). Comparisons with existing continental-scale daily precipitation grids (e.g., CRU, ECA E-OBS, GCOS) which include considerably less observations compared to those used in STAMMEX, demonstrate the added value of high-resolution grids for extreme rainfall analyses. These data exhibit spatial variability pattern and trends in precipitation extremes, which are missed or incorrectly reproduced over Central Europe from coarser resolution grids based on sparser networks. The STAMMEX dataset can be used for high-quality climate diagnostics of precipitation variability, as a reference for reanalyses and remotely-sensed precipitation products (including the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission products), and for input into regional climate and operational weather forecast models. We will present

  9. At site and regional analysis of maximum annual and seasonal discharges and precipitation depths in the upper Hron region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohnova, S.; Hlavcova, K.

    2004-01-01

    In this presentation authors deal with the regional analysis of maximum annual and seasonal discharges and precipitation depths in the upper Hron region (Slovak Republic). This work has two objectives: (1) At site and regional analysis of annual and seasonal maximum design discharges in the upper Hron region; (2) Analysis of annual and seasonal maximum design precipitations in the connection of extreme runoff condition in the upper Hron region

  10. Low cloud precipitation climatology in the southeastern Pacific marine stratocumulus region using CloudSat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapp, Anita D; Lebsock, Matthew; L’Ecuyer, Tristan

    2013-01-01

    A climatology of low cloud surface precipitation occurrence and intensity from the new CloudSat 2C-RAIN-PROFILE algorithm is presented from June 2006 through December 2010 for the southeastern Pacific region of marine stratocumulus. Results show that over 70% of low cloud precipitation falls as drizzle. Application of an empirical evaporation model suggests that 50–80% of the precipitation evaporates before it reaches the surface. Segregation of the CloudSat ascending and descending overpasses shows that the majority of precipitation occurs at night. Examination of the seasonal cycle shows that the precipitation is most frequent during the austral winter and spring; however there is considerable regional variability. Conditional rain rates increase from east to west with a maximum occurring in the region influenced by the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Area average rain rates are highest in the region where precipitation rates are moderate, but most frequent. The area average surface rain rate for low cloud precipitation for this region is ∼0.22 mm d −1 , in good agreement with in situ estimates, and is greatly improved over earlier CloudSat precipitation products. These results provide a much-needed quantification of surface precipitation in a region that is currently underestimated in existing satellite-based precipitation climatologies. (letter)

  11. Verification of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Satellite by the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.

    2017-12-01

    Measurements of global precipitation are critical for monitoring Earth's water resources and hydrological processes, including flooding and snowpack accumulation. As such, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission `Core' satellite detects precipitation ranging from light snow to heavy downpours in a wide range locations including remote mountainous regions. The Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) during the 2015-2016 fall-winter season in the mountainous Olympic Peninsula of Washington State provide physical and hydrological validation for GPM precipitation algorithms and insight into the modification of midlatitude storms by passage over mountains. The instrumentation included ground-based dual-polarization Doppler radars on the windward and leeward sides of the Olympic Mountains, surface stations that measured precipitation rates, particle size distributions and fall velocities at various altitudes, research aircraft equipped with cloud microphysics probes, radars, lidar, and passive radiometers, supplemental rawinsondes and dropsondes, and autonomous recording cameras that monitored snowpack accumulation. Results based on dropsize distributions (DSDs) and cross-sections of radar reflectivity over the ocean and windward slopes have revealed important considerations for GPM algorithm development. During periods of great precipitation accumulation and enhancement by the mountains on windward slopes, both warm rain and ice-phase processes are present, implying that it is important for GPM retrievals be sensitive to both types of precipitation mechanisms and to represent accurately the concentration of precipitation at the lowest possible altitudes. OLYMPEX data revealed that a given rain rate could be associated with a variety of DSDs, which presents a challenge for GPM precipitation retrievals in extratropical cyclones passing over mountains. Some of the DSD regimes measured during OLYMPEX stratiform periods have the same characteristics found in prior

  12. Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds in ECHAM6-HAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Hoose, Corinna

    2013-04-01

    Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds by uptake into cloud particles, collision-coalescence, chemical processing inside the cloud particles and release back into the atmosphere has important effects on aerosol concentration, size distribution, chemical composition and mixing state. Aerosol particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei. Cloud droplets can take up further aerosol particles by collisions. Atmospheric gases may also be transferred into the cloud droplets and undergo chemical reactions, e.g. the production of atmospheric sulphate. Aerosol particles are also processed in ice crystals. They may be taken up by homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets below -38° C or by heterogeneous freezing above -38° C. This includes immersion freezing of already immersed aerosol particles in the droplets and contact freezing of particles colliding with a droplet. Many clouds do not form precipitation and also much of the precipitation evaporates before it reaches the ground. The water soluble part of the aerosol particles concentrates in the hydrometeors and together with the insoluble part forms a single, mixed, larger particle, which is released. We have implemented aerosol processing into the current version of the general circulation model ECHAM6 (Stevens et al., 2013) coupled to the aerosol module HAM (Stier et al., 2005). ECHAM6-HAM solves prognostic equations for the cloud droplet number and ice crystal number concentrations. In the standard version of HAM, seven modes are used to describe the total aerosol. The modes are divided into soluble/mixed and insoluble modes and the number concentrations and masses of different chemical components (sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt and mineral dust) are prognostic variables. We extended this by an explicit representation of aerosol particles in cloud droplets and ice crystals in stratiform clouds similar to Hoose et al. (2008a,b). Aerosol particles in cloud droplets are represented by 5 tracers for the

  13. Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Danqing; Yan, Peiwen; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yaocun; Kuang, Xueyuan; Cheng, Jing

    2018-04-01

    The uncertainty of global summer precipitation simulated by the 23 CMIP5 CGCMs and the possible impacts of model resolutions are investigated in this study. Large uncertainties exist over the tropical and subtropical regions, which can be mainly attributed to convective precipitation simulation. High-resolution models (HRMs) and low-resolution models (LRMs) are further investigated to demonstrate their different contributions to the uncertainties of the ensemble mean. It shows that the high-resolution model ensemble means (HMME) and low-resolution model ensemble mean (LMME) mitigate the biases between the MME and observation over most continents and oceans, respectively. The HMME simulates more precipitation than the LMME over most oceans, but less precipitation over some continents. The dominant precipitation category in the HRMs (LRMs) is the heavy precipitation (moderate precipitation) over the tropic regions. The combinations of convective and stratiform precipitation are also quite different: the HMME has much higher ratio of stratiform precipitation while the LMME has more convective precipitation. Finally, differences in precipitation between the HMME and LMME can be traced to their differences in the SST simulations via the local and remote air-sea interaction.

  14. Evaluating Satellite Products for Precipitation Estimation in Mountain Regions: A Case Study for Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarendra Lakhankar

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation in mountain regions is often highly variable and poorly observed, limiting abilities to manage water resource challenges. Here, we evaluate remote sensing and ground station-based gridded precipitation products over Nepal against weather station precipitation observations on a monthly timescale. We find that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B-43 precipitation product exhibits little mean bias and reasonable skill in giving precipitation over Nepal. Compared to station observations, the TRMM precipitation product showed an overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.49, which is similar to the skill of the gridded station-based product Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE. The other satellite precipitation products considered (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP, the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS were less skillful, as judged by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and, on average, substantially underestimated precipitation compared to station observations, despite their, in some cases, higher nominal spatial resolution compared to TRMM. None of the products fully captured the dependence of mean precipitation on elevation seen in the station observations. Overall, the TRMM product is promising for use in water resources applications.

  15. Annual Precipitation Fluctuation and Spatial Differentiation Characteristics of the Horqin Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangxu Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the main water source for vegetation survival in arid and semi-arid areas. However, previous studies always focus on the effects of precipitation in different time scales, but ignore the effects of precipitation in different spatial scales. To further study the effects of precipitation fluctuation in different spatial scales, we used the wavelet analysis method to analyze its temporal and spatial change based on data from eighteen meteorological stations during 1961–2015 in Horqin region. Results showed that: (1 from the overall tendency of precipitation changes, the precipitation inter-annual variations in Horqin region had the tendency of gradually decreasing from the southeast (District IV to the northwest; (2 the precipitation anomalies of District I–IV between 1960 and 1980 were small and approximate to the normal value; (3 in the time scale of 23–32 years, the cyclical fluctuations were very significant and the annual precipitation underwent two cyclical fluctuations from a period of low precipitation to a period of high precipitation; and (4 as results of analyzing the spatial wavelet variance of sub-region, the main cycle of precipitation in District I, District II and District III was between 10 and 11 years, while the main cycle of precipitation in District IV was 25 years. The main conclusions include the following. (1 This region tended to be arid, and the precipitation gradually decreased from the southeast (District IV to northwest (District I. (2 The influence of spatial differentiation characteristics on precipitation fluctuation in this region was cyclical fluctuation, which gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest. The length of the cyclical change period gradually shortened. In the first main cycle, whose annual precipitation changes were most significant, the changing characteristic was District IV and District I decreased from 25 years to 10 years. (3 Predicated from the cyclical

  16. Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

    2015-03-17

    In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

  17. Satellite Monitoring of Vegetation Response to Precipitation and Dust Storm Outbreaks in Gobi Desert Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuki Sofue

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently, droughts have become widespread in the Northern Hemisphere, including in Mongolia. The ground surface condition, particularly vegetation coverage, affects the occurrence of dust storms. The main sources of dust storms in the Asian region are the Taklimakan and Mongolian Gobi desert regions. In these regions, precipitation is one of the most important factors for growth of plants especially in arid and semi-arid land. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between precipitation and vegetation cover dynamics over 29 years in the Gobi region. We compared the patterns between precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for a period of 29 years. The precipitation and vegetation datasets were examined to investigate the trends during 1985–2013. Cross correlation analysis between the precipitation and the NDVI anomalies was performed. Data analysis showed that the variations of NDVI anomalies in the east region correspond well with the precipitation anomalies during this period. However, in the southwest region of the Gobi region, the NDVI had decreased regardless of the precipitation amount, especially since 2010. This result showed that vegetation in this region was more degraded than in the other areas.

  18. Changes in precipitation recycling over arid regions in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruolin; Wang, Chenghai; Wu, Di

    2018-01-01

    Changes of precipitation recycling (PR) in Northern Hemisphere from 1981 to 2010 are investigated using a water recycling model. The temporal and spatial characteristics of recycling in arid regions are analyzed. The results show that the regional precipitation recycling ratio (PRR) in arid regions is larger than in wet regions. PRR in arid regions has obvious seasonal variation, ranging from more than 25 % to less than 1 %. Furthermore, in arid regions, PRR is significantly negatively correlated with precipitation (correlation coefficient r = -0.5, exceeding the 99 % significance level). Moreover, the trend of PRR is related to changes in precipitation in two ways. PRR decreases with increasing precipitation in North Africa, which implies that less locally evaporated vapor converts into actual precipitation. However, in Asian arid regions, the PRR increases as precipitation reduces, which implies that more locally evaporated vapor converts into rainfall. Further, as PRR mainly depends on evapotranspiration, the PRR trend in Asian arid regions develops as temperature increases and more evaporated vapor enters the atmosphere to offset the reduced rainfall.

  19. Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

  20. Enhancement of regional wet deposition estimates based on modeled precipitation inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Lynch; Jeffery W. Grimm; Edward S. Corbett

    1996-01-01

    Application of a variety of two-dimensional interpolation algorithms to precipitation chemistry data gathered at scattered monitoring sites for the purpose of estimating precipitation- born ionic inputs for specific points or regions have failed to produce accurate estimates. The accuracy of these estimates is particularly poor in areas of high topographic relief....

  1. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  2. Metasomatic zoning at some stratiform rare metal deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altyntsev, Yu.V.; Bazhenov, M.I.; Bepeshov, G.V.; Komarnitskij, G.M.; Petrov, I.Ya.; Serykh, A.S.

    1985-01-01

    Metasomatic zoning of stratiform deposits of rare metals (Mo, Pb, As, V, Se, U, etc.) in intermontane depresions, deposited at the postorogenic stage of Paleozoic geosyncline region development, is considered. Geochemical and geophysical characteristics of metasomatic zoning in the case of sloping and steep rock deposition are given. It is established, that in rare metal deposits in variegated deposits of molassoid formation of Middle-Upper Paleozoic the external and internal zones of metasomatic alterations are distinctly separated. The external zone is presented by mineral association: quartz + -albile + -calcite + -epidote; the internal one - by hydromica + -chlorite + -analcite, laumontite + -hematite + -ankerite + -kaolinite. Geochemical zoning is manifested quite regularly at all the deposits and it is subjected to metasomatic zoning. Changes in physical properties of rocks reflect the metasomatic zoning. The character of metasomatic alterations of rocks, geochemical zoning of metasomatites at rare metal deposits in molassoid deposits and spatially contiguous deposits in volcanogenic complexes have common features. A supposition is made on polygenic ore formation in sedimentary rocks of the depressions

  3. Improving the Regional Applicability of Satellite Precipitation Products by Ensemble Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waseem Muhammad

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based precipitation products (e.g., Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG and its predecessor, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM are a critical source of precipitation estimation, particularly for a region with less, or no, hydrometric networking. However, the inconsistency in the performance of these products has been observed in different climatic and topographic diverse regions, timescales, and precipitation intensities and there is still room for improvement. Hence, using a projected ensemble algorithm, the regional precipitation estimate (RP is introduced here. The RP concept is mainly based on the regional performance weights derived from the Mean Square Error (MSE and the precipitation estimate from the TRMM product, that is, TRMM 3B42 (TR, real-time (late (IT and the research (post-real-time (IR products of IMERG. The overall results of the selected contingency table (e.g., Probability of detection (POD and statistical indices (e.g., Correlation Coefficient (CC signposted that the proposed RP product has shown an overall better potential to capture the gauge observations compared with the TR, IR, and IT in five different climatic regions of Pakistan from January 2015 to December 2016, at a diurnal time scale. The current study could be the first research providing preliminary feedback from Pakistan for global precipitation measurement researchers by highlighting the need for refinement in the IMERG.

  4. Improved hydrological modeling for remote regions using a combination of observed and simulated precipitation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Linden, Sandra; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

    2003-01-01

    -resolution regional climate model (HIRHAM4) with a mean-field bias correction using observed precipitation. A hydrological model (USAFLOW) was applied to simulate runoff using observed precipitation and a combination of observed and simulated precipitation as input. The method was illustrated for the remote Usa basin......, situated in the European part of Arctic Russia, close to the Ural Mountains. It was shown that runoff simulations agree better with observations when the combined precipitation data set was used than when only observed precipitation was used. This appeared to be because the HIRHAM4 model data compensated...... for the absence of observed data from mountainous areas where precipitation is orographically enhanced. In both cases, the runoff simulated by USAFLOW was superior to the runoff simulated within the HIRHAM4 model itself. This was attributed to the rather simplistic description of the water balance in the HIRHAM4...

  5. Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Chunlei; Allan, Richard P

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining the wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30° S–30° N) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry regions over the period 1850–2100. Observed decreases in precipitation over dry tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (−0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over wet land regions since 1950 exist, relating to decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land. Global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the tendency for already wet regions to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3% K −1 over wet tropical oceans) and the driest regions drier (precipitation decreases of −2% K −1 over dry tropical land regions) emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming. (letter)

  6. Stable Isotopes of Precipitation During Tropical Sumatra Squalls in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Shaoneng; Goodkin, Nathalie F.; Kurita, Naoyuki; Wang, Xianfeng; Rubin, Charles Martin

    2018-04-01

    Sumatra Squalls, organized bands of thunderstorms, are the dominant mesoscale convective systems during the intermonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons in Singapore. To understand how they affect precipitation isotopes, we monitored the δ value of precipitation daily and continuously (every second and integrated over 30 s) during all squalls in 2015. We found that precipitation δ18O values mainly exhibit a "V"-shape pattern and less commonly a "W"-shape pattern. Variation in δ18O values during a single event is about 1 to 6‰ with the lowest values mostly observed in the stratiform zone, which agrees with previous observations and modeling simulations. Reevaporation can significantly affect δ values, especially in the last stage of the stratiform zone. Daily precipitation is characterized by periodic negative shifts in δ value, largely associated with the squalls rather than moisture source change. The shifts can be more than 10‰, larger than intraevent variation. Initial δ18O values of events are highly variable, and those with the lowest values also have the lowest initial values. Therefore, past convective activities in the upwind area can significantly affect the δ18O, and convection at the sampling site has limited contribution to isotopic variability. A significant correlation between precipitation δ18O value and regional outgoing longwave radiation and rainfall in the Asian monsoon region and western Pacific suggests that regional organized convection probably drives stable isotopic compositions of precipitation. A drop in the frequency of the squalls in 2015 is related to weak organized convection in the region caused by El Niño.

  7. Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yanling; Achberger, Christine; Linderholm, Hans W

    2011-01-01

    Using high-quality precipitation data from 524 stations, the trends of a set of precipitation variables during the main rain season (May-September) from 1961 to 2008 for different climate regions in China were analysed. However, different characteristics were displayed in different regions of China. In most temperate monsoon regions (north-eastern China), total rain-season precipitation and precipitation days showed decreasing trends; positive tendencies in precipitation intensity were, however, noted for most stations in this region. It is suggested that the decrease in rain-season precipitation is mainly related to there being fewer rain days and a change towards drier conditions in north-eastern China, and as a result, the available water resources have been negatively affected in the temperate monsoon regions. In most subtropical and tropical monsoon climate regions (south-eastern China), the rain-season precipitation and precipitation days (11-50, with > 50 mm) showed slightly positive trends. However, precipitation days with ≤ 10 mm decreased in these regions. Changes towards wetter conditions in this area, together with more frequent heavy rainfall events causing floods, have a severe impact on peoples' lives and socio-economic development. In general, the rain-season precipitation, precipitation days and rain-season precipitation intensity had all increased in the temperate continental and plateau/mountain regions of western China. This increase in rain-season precipitation has been favourable to pasture growth.

  8. Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong; hide

    2012-01-01

    One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

  9. Method for modeling the deposition of sulfur by precipitation over regional scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, B.B.; Shannon, J.D.

    1979-01-01

    Radioactive fallout data suggest that the concentration of pollutants in rainfall, while highly variable, might be described on the average by about an inverse half-power dependence on the amount of precipitation. Recent measurements of sulfur concentrations in summer rainfall collected at Argonne National Laboratory tend to support this contention, as do preliminary results derived from operations of the DOE precipitation chemistry network. The concept is extended to develop a bulk removal rate for airborne total sulfur by precipitation for use in regional dispersion modeling

  10. ENSO variability reflected in precipitation oxygen isotopes across the Asian Summer Monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhongyin; Tian, Lide; Bowen, Gabriel J.

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  11. Precipitation and ice core isotopes from the Asian Summer Monsoon region reflect coherent ENSO variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Z.; Tian, L.; Bowen, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen isotope signals (δ18O) from paleo-archives are important proxies for past Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) climate reconstruction. However, causes of interannual variation in the δ18O values of modern precipitation across the ASM region remain in argument. We report interannual δ18O variation in southern Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on long-term observations at Lhasa. These data, together with precipitation δ18O records from five Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) stations and two ice core δ18O records, were used to define a regional metric of ASM precipitation δ18O (ASMOI). Back-trajectory analyses for rainy season precipitation events indicate that moisture sources vary little between years with relatively high and low δ18O values, a result that is consistent for the south (Lhasa), southeast (Bangkok), and east ASM regions (Hong Kong). In contrast, δ18O values at these three locations are significantly correlated with convection in the estimated source regions and along transport paths. These results suggest that upstream convection, rather than moisture source change, causes interannual variation in ASM precipitation δ18O values. Contrasting values of the ASMOI in El Niño and La Niña years reveal a positive isotope-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response (e.g., high values corresponding to warm phases), which we interpret as a response to changes in regional convection. We show that the isotope-ENSO response is amplified at high elevation sites and during La Niña years. These findings should improve interpretations of paleo-δ18O data as a proxy for past ASM variation and provide new opportunities to use data from this region to study paleo-ENSO activity.

  12. Evaluation for Moroccan dynamically downscaled precipitation from GCM CHAM5 and its regional hydrologic response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsou Jaw

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Morocco (excluding Western Sahara. Study focus: This study evaluated Moroccan precipitation, dynamically downscaled (0.18-degree from three runs of the studied GCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM, under the present-day (1971–2000/20C3M and future (2036–2065/A1B climate scenarios. The spatial and quantitative properties of the downscaled precipitation were evaluated by a verified, fine-resolution reference. The effectiveness of the hydrologic responses, driven by the downscaled precipitation, was further evaluated for the study region over the upstream watershed of Oum er Rbia River located in Central Morocco. New hydrological insights for the region: The raw downscaling runs reasonably featured the spatial properties but quantitatively misrepresented the mean and extreme intensities of present-day precipitation. Two proposed bias correction approaches, namely stationary Quantile-Mapping (QM and non-stationary Equidistant CDF Matching model (EDCDFm, successfully reduced the system biases existing in the raw downscaling runs. However, both raw and corrected runs projected great diversity in terms of the quantity of future precipitation. Hydrologic simulations performed by a well-calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model successfully reproduced the present-day streamflow. The driven flows were identified highly correlated with the effectiveness of the downscaled precipitation. The future flows were projected to be markedly diverse, mainly due to the varied precipitation projections. Two of the three flow simulation runs projected slight to severe drying scenarios, while another projected an opposite trend for the evaluated future period. Keywords: Dynamical downscaling, Moroccan precipitation, Regional hydrology

  13. Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: the effect on regional crop yield forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Boogaard, H.L.; Diepen, van C.A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the effect of uncertainty in precipitation and radiation on crop simulation results at local (50 × 50 km grids) and regional scale (NUTS1 regions) and on the crop yield forecasts for Germany and France. Two experiments were carried out where crop yields for winter-wheat and grain

  14. Variation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Based on Elasticity Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Erhui; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Shao, Hongbo

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan wat...

  15. Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminyavari, Saleh; Saghafian, Bahram; Delavar, Majid

    2018-04-01

    The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous (yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008-16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation. The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation, NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations. Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.

  16. Stable isotopic characteristic of Taiwan's precipitation: A case study of western Pacific monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Tsung-Ren; Wang, Chung-Ho; Huang, Chi-Chao; Fei, Li-Yuan; Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Hwong, Jeen-Lian

    2010-01-01

    The stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic features of precipitation in Taiwan, an island located at the western Pacific monsoon area, are presented from nearly 3,500 samples collected during the past decade for 20 stations. Results demonstrate that moisture sources from diverse air masses with different isotopic signals are the main parameter in controlling the precipitation's isotope characteristics. The air mass from polar continental (Pc) region contributes the precipitation with high deuterium excess values (up to 23‰) and relatively enriched isotope compositions (e.g., - 3.2‰ for δ 18O) during the winter with prevailing northeasterly monsoon. By contrast, air masses from equatorial maritime (Em) and tropical maritime (Tm) supply the precipitation with low deuterium excess values (as low as about 7‰) and more depleted isotope values (e.g., - 8.9‰ and - 6.0‰ for δ 18O of Tm and Em, respectively) during the summer with prevailing southwesterly monsoon. Thus seasonal differences in terms of δ 18O, δD, and deuterium excess values are primarily influenced by the interactions among various precipitation sources. While these various air masses travel through Taiwan, secondary evaporation effects further modify the isotope characteristics of the inland precipitation, such as raindrop evaporation (reduces the deuterium excess of winter precipitation) and moisture recycling (increases the deuterium excess of summer precipitation). The semi-quantitative estimations in terms of evaluation for changes in the deuterium excess suggest that the raindrop evaporation fractions for winter precipitation range 7% to 15% and the proportions of recycling moisture in summer precipitation are less than 5%. Additionally, the isotopic altitude gradient in terms of δ 18O for summer precipitation is - 0.22‰/100 m, greater than - 0.17‰/100 m of winter precipitation. The greater isotopic gradient in summer can be attributed to a higher temperature vs. altitude gradient

  17. Spatio-temporal changes in precipitation over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Na; Yue, Tianxiang; Li, Han; Zhang, Lili; Yin, Xiaozhe; Liu, Yi

    2018-04-01

    Changes in precipitation have a large effect on human society and are of primary importance for many scientific fields such as hydrology, agriculture and eco-environmental sciences. The present study intended to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by using 316 meteorological stations during the period 1965-2014. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method and High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method were applied to produce the precipitation patterns at different time scales. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was applied to analyze the precipitation temporal variations. Results indicated that annual precipitation over the past 50 years appeared to be a non-periodic oscillation phenomenon; the number of wet years was approximately the same as that of dry years; significant positive trends were observed in spring during 1978-2014 and summer during 1996-2014; on the whole, precipitation in May, June, September, and December showed increasing trends at the 95% confidence level; and significant positive trends were also identified in July during 2000-2013 and August during 1997-2010, while slight decreasing trends were observed in February and November. Summer (June, July, and August) was the wettest season, accounting for 68.73% of annual totals in BTH. In general, northeastern BTH received the highest range of precipitation while northwestern area had the lowest. It was found that precipitation variation in this region had been closely linked to latitude, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), distance to the sea, and urbanization rate. In addition, land use played an important role in the decadal precipitation changes in BTH.

  18. Regional-scale relationships between aerosol and summer monsoon circulation, and precipitation over northeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Sang-Woo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Choi, In-Jin

    2010-08-01

    We investigated the regional-scale relationships between columnar aerosol loads and summer monsoon circulation, and also the precipitation over northeast Asia using aerosol optical depth (AOD) data obtained from the 8-year MODIS, AERONET Sun/sky radiometer, and precipitation data acquired under the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). These high-quality data revealed the regional-scale link between AOD and summer monsoon circulation, precipitation in July over northeast Asian countries, and their distinct spatial and annual variabilities. Compared to the mean AOD for the entire period of 2001-2008, the increase of almost 40-50% in the AOD value in July 2005 and July 2007 was found over the downwind regions of China (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea), with negative precipitation anomalies. This can be attributable to the strong westerly confluent flows, between cyclone flows by continental thermal low centered over the northern China and anticyclonic flows by the western North Pacific High, which transport anthropogenic pollution aerosols emitted from east China to aforementioned downwind high AOD regions along the rim of the Pacific marine airmass. In July 2002, however, the easterly flows transported anthropogenic aerosols from east China to the southwestern part of China in July 2002. As a result, the AOD off the coast of China was dramatically reduced in spite of decreasing rainfall. From the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient between MODIS-derived AOD anomalies and GPCP precipitation anomalies in July over the period 2001-2008, we found negative correlations over the areas encompassed by 105-115°E and 30-35°N and by 120-140°E and 35-40°N (Yellow Sea, Korean peninsula, and East Sea). This suggests that aerosol loads over these regions are easily influenced by the Asian monsoon flow system and associated precipitation.

  19. ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CARPATHIAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KIS ANNA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the major atmospheric source of surface water, thus, in order to build appropriate adaptation strategies for various economic sections related to water resources it is essential to provide projections for precipitation tendencies as exact as possible. Extreme precipitation events are especially important from this point of view since they may result in different environmental, economical, and/or even human health damages. Excessive precipitation for instance may induce floods, flash-floods, landslides, traffic accidents. On the other hand, lack of precipitation is not favorable either: long dry periods affect agricultural production quite negatively, and hence, food safety can be threatened. Several precipitation-related indices (i.e., describing drought or intensity, exceeding different percentile-based or absolute threshold values are analyzed for the Carpathian region for 1961–2100. For this purpose 11 completed regional climate model simulations are used from the ENSEMBLES database. Before the thorough analysis, a percentile-based bias correction method was applied to the raw data, for which the homogenized daily gridded CarpatClim database (1961–2010 served as a reference. Absolute and relative seasonal mean changes of climate indices are calculated for two future time periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100 and for three subregions within the entire Carpathian region, namely, for Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. According to our results, longer dry periods are estimated for the summer season, mainly in the southern parts of the domain, while precipitation intensity is likely to increase. Heavy precipitation days and high percentile values are projected to increase, especially, in winter and autumn.

  20. Cloud-radiation-precipitation associations over the Asian monsoon region: an observational analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiandong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Dong, Xiquan; Mao, Jiangyu

    2017-11-01

    This study uses 2001-2014 satellite observations and reanalyses to investigate the seasonal characteristics of Cloud Radiative Effects (CREs) and their associations with cloud fraction (CF) and precipitation over the Asian monsoon region (AMR) covering Eastern China (EC) and South Asia (SA). The CREs exhibit strong seasonal variations but show distinctly different relationships with CFs and precipitation over the two regions. For EC, the CREs is dominated by shortwave (SW) cooling, with an annual mean value of - 40 W m- 2 for net CRE, and peak in summer while the presence of extensive and opaque low-level clouds contributes to large Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) albedo (>0.5) in winter. For SA, a weak net CRE exists throughout the year due to in-phase compensation of SWCRE by longwave (LW) CRE associated with the frequent occurrence of high clouds. For the entire AMR, SWCRE strongly correlates with the dominant types of CFs, although the cloud vertical structure plays important role particularly in summer. The relationships between CREs and precipitation are stronger in SA than in EC, indicating the dominant effect of monsoon circulation in the former region. SWCRE over EC is only partly related to precipitation and shows distinctive regional variations. Further studies need to pay more attention to vertical distributions of cloud micro- and macro-physical properties, and associated precipitation systems over the AMR.

  1. Evaluation of performance of seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, U. C.; Nageswararao, M. M.; Sinha, P.; Nair, A.; Singh, A.; Rai, R. K.; Kar, S. C.; Ramesh, K. J.; Singh, K. K.; Ghosh, K.; Rathore, L. S.; Sharma, R.; Kumar, A.; Dhekale, B. S.; Maurya, R. K. S.; Sahoo, R. K.; Dash, G. P.

    2018-03-01

    The seasonal scale precipitation amount is an important ingredient in planning most of the agricultural practices (such as a type of crops, and showing and harvesting schedules). India being an agroeconomic country, the seasonal scale prediction of precipitation is directly linked to the socioeconomic growth of the nation. At present, seasonal precipitation prediction at regional scale is a challenging task for the scientific community. In the present study, an attempt is made to develop multi-model dynamical-statistical approach for seasonal precipitation prediction at the regional scale (meteorological subdivisions) over India for four prominent seasons which are winter (from December to February; DJF), pre-monsoon (from March to May; MAM), summer monsoon (from June to September; JJAS), and post-monsoon (from October to December; OND). The present prediction approach is referred as extended range forecast system (ERFS). For this purpose, precipitation predictions from ten general circulation models (GCMs) are used along with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall analysis data from 1982 to 2008 for evaluation of the performance of the GCMs, bias correction of the model results, and development of the ERFS. An extensive evaluation of the performance of the ERFS is carried out with dependent data (1982-2008) as well as independent predictions for the period 2009-2014. In general, the skill of the ERFS is reasonably better and consistent for all the seasons and different regions over India as compared to the GCMs and their simple mean. The GCM products failed to explain the extreme precipitation years, whereas the bias-corrected GCM mean and the ERFS improved the prediction and well represented the extremes in the hindcast period. The peak intensity, as well as regions of maximum precipitation, is better represented by the ERFS than the individual GCMs. The study highlights the improvement of forecast skill of the ERFS over 34 meteorological subdivisions

  2. Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yinyin; Gao, Tao; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong; Xie, Lian

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 – 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. – May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. – Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons. PMID:25033387

  3. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao

    2017-07-19

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

  4. The effect of a giant wind farm on precipitation in a regional climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiedler, B H; Bukovsky, M S

    2011-01-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to study the effect of a giant wind farm on warm-season precipitation in the eastern two-thirds of the USA. The boundary conditions for WRF are supplied by 62 years of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) global reanalysis. In the model, the presence of a mid-west wind farm, either giant or small, can have an enormous impact on the weather and the amount of precipitation for one season, which is consistent with the known sensitivity of long-term weather forecasts to initial conditions. The effect on climate is less strong. In the average precipitation of 62 warm seasons, there is a statistically significant 1.0% enhancement of precipitation in a multi-state area surrounding and to the south-east of the wind farm.

  5. A study of regional trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and runoff series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tveito, O.E.; Hisdal, H.

    1994-03-10

    In this study long and homogeneous time series of runoff and precipitation are studied to identify variations in time and space. The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF-method) is applied. Both annual observations, smoothed (using Gauss filter) and seasonal values are analyzed. The analysis shows that the temporal variations in runoff and precipitation coincide. The deviations occurring in the seasonal values are caused by snow accumulation and snow melt. In the filtered series temporal trends are found. A comparison between the different normal periods has been carried out for precipitation. The 1900-30 and 1960-90 periods differ from the 1930-60 period. This may be caused by different weather types dominating the different periods. The different weather types are reflected in different empirical orthogonal functions. This is verified by regional studies. The coinciding patterns in runoff and precipitation are important aspects in climate studies and for extrapolation purposes. 11 refs., 20 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Variations of Precipitation Structure and Microwave Tbs During the Evolution of a Hailstorm from TRMM Observations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, a hailstorm occurring on 9 May 1999 in Huanghuai region was studied by using the combined data from the precipitation radar (PR), microwave image (TMI), and visible infrared scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. According to the 3-orbit observations of 5-h duration from the TRMM satellite, the variation characteristics of the precipitation structures as well as cloud top temperature and microwave signals of the precipitating cloud were comprehensively analyzed during the evolution of hailstorm. The results show that the precipitation is obviously converted from early hail cloud with strong convection into the later storm cloud with weak convection. For hail cloud, there exists some strong convective cells, and the heavy solid precipitation is shown at the middle-top levels so that the contribution of rainfall amount above the freezing-layer to the column precipitation amount is rather larger than that within the melting-layer. However, for storm cloud, the convective cells are surrounded by the large area of stratiform precipitation, and the precipitation thickness gradually decreases, and the rainfall above the freezing-layer obviously reduces and the contribution of rainfall amount within the melting-layer rapidly increases. Therefore, the larger ratio of rainfall amount above the freezing layer to column precipitation amount is, the more convective the cloud is; reversely, the larger proportion of rainfall below the melting layer is, the more stable the stratiform cloud is. The different changing trends of microwave signals at different precipitation stages show that it is better to consider the structures and stages of precipitating cloud to choose the optimal microwave channels to retrieve surface rainfall.

  7. Scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the French Mediterranean region: What explains the hook shape?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobinski, P.; Alonzo, B.; Bastin, S.; Silva, N. Da; Muller, C.

    2016-04-01

    Expected changes to future extreme precipitation remain a key uncertainty associated with anthropogenic climate change. Extreme precipitation has been proposed to scale with the precipitable water content in the atmosphere. Assuming constant relative humidity, this implies an increase of precipitation extremes at a rate of about 7% °C-1 globally as indicated by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Increases faster and slower than Clausius-Clapeyron have also been reported. In this work, we examine the scaling between precipitation extremes and temperature in the present climate using simulations and measurements from surface weather stations collected in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs in Southern France. Of particular interest are departures from the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic expectation, their spatial and temporal distribution, and their origin. Looking at the scaling of precipitation extreme with temperature, two regimes emerge which form a hook shape: one at low temperatures (cooler than around 15°C) with rates of increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate and one at high temperatures (warmer than about 15°C) with sub-Clausius-Clapeyron rates and most often negative rates. On average, the region of focus does not seem to exhibit super Clausius-Clapeyron behavior except at some stations, in contrast to earlier studies. Many factors can contribute to departure from Clausius-Clapeyron scaling: time and spatial averaging, choice of scaling temperature (surface versus condensation level), and precipitation efficiency and vertical velocity in updrafts that are not necessarily constant with temperature. But most importantly, the dynamical contribution of orography to precipitation in the fall over this area during the so-called "Cevenoles" events, explains the hook shape of the scaling of precipitation extremes.

  8. Satellite-Enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies: Extreme Precipitation Events in Southeastern South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Gomes, G.; Ivanov, V. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Frequently found in southeastern South America during the warm season from October through May, strong and localized precipitation maxima are usually associated with the presence of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) travelling across the region. Flashfloods and landslides can be caused by these extremes in precipitation, with damages to the local communities. Heavily populated, southeastern South America hosts many agricultural activities and hydroelectric production. It encompasses one of the most important river basins in South America, the La Plata River Basin. Therefore, insufficient precipitation is equally prejudicial to the region socio-economic activities. MCCs are originated in the warm season of many regions of the world, however South American MCCs are related to the most severe thunderstorms, and have significantly contributed to the precipitation regime. We used the hourly outputs of Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), developed at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, in the analysis of the dynamics and physical characteristics of MCCs in South America. SRDAS is the 25-km resolution downscaling of a global reanalysis available from January 1998 through December 2010. The Regional Spectral Model is the SRDAS atmospheric component and assimilates satellite-based precipitation estimates from the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique global precipitation analyses. In this study, the SRDAS atmospheric and land-surface variables, global reanalysis products, infrared satellite imagery, and the physical retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), on board of the NASA's Aqua satellite, were used in the evaluation of the MCCs developed in southeastern South America from 2008 and 2010. Low-level circulations and vertical profiles were analyzed together to establish the relevance of the moisture transport in connection with the upper-troposphere dynamics to the development of those MCCs.

  9. Improving aerosol interaction with clouds and precipitation in a regional chemical weather modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C.; Zhang, X.; Gong, S.; Wang, Y.; Xue, M.

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction (ACI) scheme has been developed under a China Meteorological Administration (CMA) chemical weather modeling system, GRAPES/CUACE (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System, CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment). Calculated by a sectional aerosol activation scheme based on the information of size and mass from CUACE and the thermal-dynamic and humid states from the weather model GRAPES at each time step, the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are interactively fed online into a two-moment cloud scheme (WRF Double-Moment 6-class scheme - WDM6) and a convective parameterization to drive cloud physics and precipitation formation processes. The modeling system has been applied to study the ACI for January 2013 when several persistent haze-fog events and eight precipitation events occurred.The results show that aerosols that interact with the WDM6 in GRAPES/CUACE obviously increase the total cloud water, liquid water content, and cloud droplet number concentrations, while decreasing the mean diameters of cloud droplets with varying magnitudes of the changes in each case and region. These interactive microphysical properties of clouds improve the calculation of their collection growth rates in some regions and hence the precipitation rate and distributions in the model, showing 24 to 48 % enhancements of threat score for 6 h precipitation in almost all regions. The aerosols that interact with the WDM6 also reduce the regional mean bias of temperature by 3 °C during certain precipitation events, but the monthly means bias is only reduced by about 0.3 °C.

  10. Improving aerosol interaction with clouds and precipitation in a regional chemical weather modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction (ACI scheme has been developed under a China Meteorological Administration (CMA chemical weather modeling system, GRAPES/CUACE (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System, CMA Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment. Calculated by a sectional aerosol activation scheme based on the information of size and mass from CUACE and the thermal-dynamic and humid states from the weather model GRAPES at each time step, the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN are interactively fed online into a two-moment cloud scheme (WRF Double-Moment 6-class scheme – WDM6 and a convective parameterization to drive cloud physics and precipitation formation processes. The modeling system has been applied to study the ACI for January 2013 when several persistent haze-fog events and eight precipitation events occurred.The results show that aerosols that interact with the WDM6 in GRAPES/CUACE obviously increase the total cloud water, liquid water content, and cloud droplet number concentrations, while decreasing the mean diameters of cloud droplets with varying magnitudes of the changes in each case and region. These interactive microphysical properties of clouds improve the calculation of their collection growth rates in some regions and hence the precipitation rate and distributions in the model, showing 24 to 48 % enhancements of threat score for 6 h precipitation in almost all regions. The aerosols that interact with the WDM6 also reduce the regional mean bias of temperature by 3 °C during certain precipitation events, but the monthly means bias is only reduced by about 0.3 °C.

  11. Using Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method to estimate rainfall (case study in Bali, December 14th 2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vista Wulandari, Ayu; Rizki Pratama, Khafid; Ismail, Prayoga

    2018-05-01

    Accurate and realtime data in wide spatial space at this time is still a problem because of the unavailability of observation of rainfall in each region. Weather satellites have a very wide range of observations and can be used to determine rainfall variability with better resolution compared with a limited direct observation. Utilization of Himawari-8 satellite data in estimating rainfall using Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method. The CST method is performed by separating convective and stratiform cloud components using infrared channel satellite data. Cloud components are classified by slope because the physical and dynamic growth processes are very different. This research was conducted in Bali area on December 14, 2016 by verifying the result of CST process with rainfall data from Ngurah Rai Meteorology Station Bali. It is found that CST method result had simililar value with data observation in Ngurah Rai meteorological station, so it assumed that CST method can be used for rainfall estimation in Bali region.

  12. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in the Carpathian region based on an ENSEMBLE of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2014/943487/

  13. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  14. Forecasting Precipitation over the MENA Region: A Data Mining and Remote Sensing Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Elbayoumi, T.; Chouinard, K.

    2015-12-01

    We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 12 months to forecast precipitation amounts over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire and analyze temporal remote sensing-based precipitation datasets (i.e. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM]) over five main water source regions in the MENA area (i.e. Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Red Sea Hills of Yemen, and Blue Nile and White Nile source areas) throughout the investigation period (1998 to 2015), (2) acquire and extract monthly values for all of the climatic indices that are likely to influence the climatic patterns over the MENA region (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (climatic indices) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation over each of the identified pilot study areas. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 1998 until August 2012 for model training and the period from September 2012 to January 2015 for testing, precipitation can be successfully predicted with a three-months lead over South West Yemen, Atlas Mountains in Morocco, Southern Sudan, Blue Nile sources and White Nile sources with confidence (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.911, 0.823, 0.807, 0.801 and 0.895 respectively). Future work will focus on applying this technique for prediction of precipitation over each of the climatically contiguous areas of the MENA region. If our efforts are successful, our findings will lead the way to the development and implementation of sound water management scenarios for the MENA countries.

  15. Regional and temporal variations of deuterium in the precipitation and atmospheric moisture of Central Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huebner, H.; Kowski, P.; Hermichen, W.D.; Richter, W.; Schuetze, H.

    1979-01-01

    Regional and temporal variations of deuterium in precipitation and in atmospheric moisture provide the opportunity to balance water cycles as additional but independent information. Variations of deuterium have been measured in precipitation samples from six stations in different zones of the German Democratic Republic since 1972. The aim of the subsequent mathematical processing was to find a functional connection between the deuterium variations and the meteorological parameters causing them. The isotopic content of atmospheric moisture in different air masses and the isotopic content of precipitation are determined by the evaporation conditions of the area of origin and by the number and intensity of evaporation and condensation (precipitation) processes en route from this area of origin to the observation point. Obviously the temperatures at which evaporation and condensation processes take place are of crucial importance. The deuterium values are correlated with the monthly mean temperature. It has been observed, for example, that the equations of regression between precipitation and atmospheric moisture (valid in the case of Leipzig station) differ only with regard to their absolute terms. This follows from the fact that the deuterium is generally enriched by up to 80 per mille in precipitation. Following the well-known fact that many meteorological phenomena show frequencies, an attempt was made to apply the Fourier analysis for the deltaD variations. Relevant harmonic parts were found in all the deltaD series studied, which are repetitious and independent of the station and the observation period. (author)

  16. Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Eeckman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a new representation of the effect of altitude on precipitation that represents spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the Everest region. Exclusive observation data are used to infer a piecewise linear function for the relation between altitude and precipitation and significant seasonal variations are highlighted. An original ensemble approach is applied to provide non-deterministic water budgets for middle and high-mountain catchments. Physical processes at the soil–atmosphere interface are represented through the Interactions Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA surface scheme. Uncertainties associated with the model parametrization are limited by the integration of in situ measurements of soils and vegetation properties. Uncertainties associated with the representation of the orographic effect are shown to account for up to 16 % of annual total precipitation. Annual evapotranspiration is shown to represent 26 % ± 1 % of annual total precipitation for the mid-altitude catchment and 34% ± 3 % for the high-altitude catchment. Snowfall contribution is shown to be neglectable for the mid-altitude catchment, and it represents up to 44 % ± 8 % of total precipitation for the high-altitude catchment. These simulations on the local scale enhance current knowledge of the spatial variability in hydroclimatic processes in high- and mid-altitude mountain environments.

  17. Land Use in LCA: Including Regionally Altered Precipitation to Quantify Ecosystem Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lathuillière, Michael J; Bulle, Cécile; Johnson, Mark S

    2016-11-01

    The incorporation of soil moisture regenerated by precipitation, or green water, into life cycle assessment has been of growing interest given the global importance of this resource for terrestrial ecosystems and food production. This paper proposes a new impact assessment model to relate land and water use in seasonally dry, semiarid, and arid regions where precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely coupled. We introduce the Precipitation Reduction Potential midpoint impact representing the change in downwind precipitation as a result of a land transformation and occupation activity. Then, our end-point impact model quantifies terrestrial ecosystem damage as a function of precipitation loss using a relationship between woody plant species richness, water and energy regimes. We then apply the midpoint and end-point models to the production of soybean in Southeastern Amazonia which has resulted from the expansion of cropland into tropical forest, with noted effects on local precipitation. Our proposed cause-effect chain represents a complementary approach to previous contributions which have focused on water consumption impacts and/or have represented evapotranspiration as a loss to the water cycle.

  18. Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ľ.; Beranová, R.; Hlavčová, K.; Kyselý, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 2014, č. 943487 (2014), s. 1-14 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.946, year: 2014

  19. Negative soil moisture-precipitation feedback in dry and wet regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lingbin; Sun, Guoqing; Zhi, Lu; Zhao, Jianjun

    2018-03-05

    Soil moisture-precipitation (SM-P) feedback significantly influences the terrestrial water and energy cycles. However, the sign of the feedback and the associated physical mechanism have been debated, leaving a research gap regarding global water and climate changes. Based on Koster's framework, we estimate SM-P feedback using satellite remote sensing and ground observation data sets. Methodologically, the sign of the feedback is identified by the correlation between monthly soil moisture and next-month precipitation. The physical mechanism is investigated through coupling precipitation and soil moisture (P-SM), soil moisture ad evapotranspiration (SM-E) and evapotranspiration and precipitation (E-P) correlations. Our results demonstrate that although positive SM-P feedback is predominant over land, non-negligible negative feedback occurs in dry and wet regions. Specifically, 43.75% and 40.16% of the negative feedback occurs in the arid and humid climate zones. Physically, negative SM-P feedback depends on the SM-E correlation. In dry regions, evapotranspiration change is soil moisture limited. In wet regions, evapotranspiration change is energy limited. We conclude that the complex SM-E correlation results in negative SM-P feedback in dry and wet regions, and the cause varies based on the environmental and climatic conditions.

  20. Congo Basin precipitation: Assessing seasonality, regional interactions, and sources of moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Ellen L. E.; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Li, Harry; Collins, Owen; Vettoretti, Guido; Noone, David

    2017-07-01

    Precipitation in the Congo Basin was examined using a version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM) with water tagging capability. Using regionally defined water tracers, or tags, the moisture contribution from different source regions to Congo Basin precipitation was investigated. We found that the Indian Ocean and evaporation from the Congo Basin were the dominant moisture sources and that the Atlantic Ocean was a comparatively small source of moisture. In both rainy seasons the southwestern Indian Ocean contributed about 21% of the moisture, while the recycling ratio for moisture from the Congo Basin was about 25%. Near the surface, a great deal of moisture is transported from the Atlantic into the Congo Basin, but much of this moisture is recirculated back over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Although the southwestern Indian Ocean is a major source of Indian Ocean moisture, it is not associated with the bulk of the variability in precipitation over the Congo Basin. In wet years, more of the precipitation in the Congo Basin is derived from Indian Ocean moisture, but the spatial distribution of the dominant sources is shifted, reflecting changes in the midtropospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean. During wet years there is increased transport of moisture from the equatorial and eastern Indian Ocean. Our results suggest that reliably capturing the linkages between the large-scale circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean and the local circulation over the Congo Basin is critical for future projections of Congo Basin precipitation.

  1. Region-of-influence approach to a frequency analysis of heavy precipitation in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, L.; Kyselý, Jan; Szolgay, J.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2007), s. 2361-2401 ISSN 1812-2108 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : regional frequency analysis * region-of-influence approach * pooling groups * extreme precipitation events * L-moments * Slovakia Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/4/2361/2007/

  2. Region-of-influence approach to a frequency analysis of heavy precipitation in Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, L.; Kyselý, Jan; Szolgay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 3 (2008), s. 825-839 ISSN 1027-5606 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : regional frequency analysis * region-of-influence approach * pooling groups * extreme precipitation events * L-moments * Slovakia Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.167, year: 2008 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/825/2008/

  3. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

    2018-04-01

    The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

  4. Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

    2014-08-01

    Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

  5. The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortès, Maria; Turco, Marco; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria Carmen

    2018-03-01

    Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies.

  6. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  7. Precipitating clouds observed by 1.3-GHz boundary layer radars in equatorial Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Renggono

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Temporal variations of precipitating clouds in equatorial Indonesia have been studied based on observations with 1357.5 MHz boundary layer radars at Serpong (6.4° S, 106.7° E near Jakarta and Bukittinggi (0.2° S, 100.3° E in West Sumatera. We have classified precipitating clouds into four types: stratiform, mixed stratiform-convective, deep convective, and shallow convective clouds, using the Williams et al. (1995 method. Diurnal variations of the occurrence of precipitating clouds at Serpong and Bukittinggi have showed the same characteristics, namely, that the precipitating clouds primarily occur in the afternoon and the peak of the stratiform cloud comes after the peak of the deep convective cloud. The time delay between the peaks of stratiform and deep convective clouds corresponds to the life cycle of the mesoscale convective system. The precipitating clouds which occur in the early morning at Serpong are dominated by stratiform cloud. Concerning seasonal variations of the precipitating clouds, we have found that the occurrence of the stratiform cloud is most frequent in the rainy season, while the occurrence of the deep convective cloud is predominant in the dry season.Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (convective processes; precipitation; tropical meteorology

  8. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  9. Precipitation recycling in West Africa - regional modeling, evaporation tagging and atmospheric water budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald; Knoche, Hans-Richard

    2015-04-01

    Many numerical studies have shown that the West African monsoon is highly sensitive to the state of the land surface. It is however questionable to which extend a local change of land surface properties would affect the local climate, especially with respect to precipitation. This issue is traditionally addressed with the concept of precipitation recycling, defined as the contribution of local surface evaporation to local precipitation. For this study the West African monsoon has been simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using explicit convection, for the domain (1°S-21°N, 18°W-14°E) at a spatial resolution of 10 km, for the period January-October 2013, and using ERA-Interim reanalyses as driving data. This WRF configuration has been selected for its ability to simulate monthly precipitation amounts and daily histograms close to TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. In order to investigate precipitation recycling in this WRF simulation, surface evaporation tagging has been implemented in the WRF source code as well as the budget of total and tagged atmospheric water. Surface evaporation tagging consists in duplicating all water species and the respective prognostic equations in the source code. Then, tagged water species are set to zero at the lateral boundaries of the simulated domain (no inflow of tagged water vapor), and tagged surface evaporation is considered only in a specified region. All the source terms of the prognostic equations of total and tagged water species are finally saved in the outputs for the budget analysis. This allows quantifying the respective contribution of total and tagged atmospheric water to atmospheric precipitation processes. The WRF simulation with surface evaporation tagging and budgets has been conducted two times, first with a 100 km2 tagged region (11-12°N, 1-2°W), and second with a 1000 km2 tagged region (7-16°N, 6°W -3°E). In this presentation we will investigate hydro

  10. Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Nagio; Takayabu, Yukari

    2013-04-01

    Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions in the CMIP5 Nagio Hirota1,2 and Yukari N. Takayabu2 (1) National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) (2) Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo Reproducibility of precipitation distributions over extratropical continental regions by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs are evaluated, in comparison with GPCP(V2.2), CMAP(V0911), daily gridded gauge data APHRODITE. Surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing, and atmospheric circulations are also compared with observations of CRU-UEA, CERES, and ERA-interim/ERA40/JRA reanalysis data. It is shown that many CMIP5 models underestimate and overestimate summer precipitation over West and East Eurasia, respectively. These precipitation biases correspond to moisture transport associated with a cyclonic circulation bias over the whole continent of Eurasia. Meanwhile, many models underestimate cloud over the Eurasian continent, and associated shortwave cloud radiative forcing result in a significant warm bias. Evaporation feedback amplify the warm bias over West Eurasia. These processes consistently explain the precipitation biases over the Erasian continent in summer. We also examined reproducibility of winter precipitation, but robust results are not obtained yet due to the large uncertainty in observation associated with the adjustment of snow measurement in windy condition. Better observational data sets are necessary for further model validation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the PMM RA of JAXA, Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, and Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (A-1201) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  11. Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

  12. Partitioning into hazard subregions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreau, J.; Naveau, P.; Neppel, L.

    2017-05-01

    The French Mediterranean is subject to intense precipitation events occurring mostly in autumn. These can potentially cause flash floods, the main natural danger in the area. The distribution of these events follows specific spatial patterns, i.e., some sites are more likely to be affected than others. The peaks-over-threshold approach consists in modeling extremes, such as heavy precipitation, by the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The shape parameter of the GP controls the probability of extreme events and can be related to the hazard level of a given site. When interpolating across a region, the shape parameter should reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the probability of heavy precipitation. However, the shape parameter estimators have high uncertainty which might hide the underlying spatial variability. As a compromise, we choose to let the shape parameter vary in a moderate fashion. More precisely, we assume that the region of interest can be partitioned into subregions with constant hazard level. We formalize the model as a conditional mixture of GP distributions. We develop a two-step inference strategy based on probability weighted moments and put forward a cross-validation procedure to select the number of subregions. A synthetic data study reveals that the inference strategy is consistent and not very sensitive to the selected number of subregions. An application on daily precipitation data from the French Mediterranean shows that the conditional mixture of GPs outperforms two interpolation approaches (with constant or smoothly varying shape parameter).

  13. Geochemistry of the furnace magnetite bed, Franklin, New Jersey, and the relationship between stratiform iron oxide ores and stratiform zinc oxide-silicate ores in the New Jersey highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C.A.; Skinner, B.J.

    2003-01-01

    buried sediments is uncertain. The iron deposits formed at interfaces between anoxic and oxygenated waters. The Furnace magnetite bed resulted from seawater oxidation of hydrothermally transported iron near a brine conduit. Iron deposits also formed regionally on the basin floor at the interface betveen anoxic deep waters and oxygenated shallower waters. These deposits include not only manganiferous magnetite + calcite bodies similar to the Furnace magnetite bed but also silicate-facies deposits that formed by iron oxide accumulation where detrital sediment was abundant. A basin margin model can be extended to Grenvillian stratiform deposits in the northwest Adirondacks of New York and the Mont Laurier basin of Quebec. In these areas iron deposits (pyrite or magnetite) are found basinward of marble-hosted sphalerite deposits, such as those in the Balmat-Edwards district. Whether the iron and zinc precipitated as sulfide assemblages or carbonate-oxide-silicate assemblages depended on whether sufficient organic matter or other reductants were available in local sediments or bottom waters to stabilize H2S.

  14. Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three-River Headwater Region from 1961 to 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YI Xiangsheng; LI Guosheng; YIN Yanyu

    2013-01-01

    Based on a monthly dataset of precipitation time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region (THRHR) of Qinghai Province,China,the spatio-temporal variation and abrupt change analysis of precipitation were examined by using moving average,linear regression,spline interpolation,the Mann-Kendall test and so on.Major conclusions were as follows.(1) The long-term annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area indicated an increasing trend with some oscillations during 1961-2010; however,the summer precipitation in the Lantsang (Lancang) River Headwater Region (LARHR),and the autumn precipitation in the Yangtze River Headwater Region (YERHR) of the THRHR decreased in the same period.(2) The amount of annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions was greater in the 1980s and 2000s.The springs were fairly wet after the 1970s,while the summers were relatively wet in the 1960s,1980s and 2000s.In addition,the amount of precipitation in the autumn was greater in the 1970s and 1980s,but it was relatively less for the winter precipitation,except in the 1990s.(3) The normal values of spring,summer,winter and annual precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions all increased,but the normal value of summer precipitation in the LARHR had a negative trend and the normal value of winter precipitation declined in general.(4) The spring and winter precipitation increased in most of the THRHR.The summer,autumn and annual precipitation increased mainly in the marginal area of the west and north and decreased in the regions of Yushu,Zaduo,Jiuzhi and Banma.(5) The spring and winter precipitation in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions showed an abrupt change,except for the spring precipitation in the YARHR.The abrupt changes of spring precipitation were mainly in the late 1980s and early 1990s,while the abrupt changes of winter precipitation were primary in the mid-to late 1970s

  15. Radar-Derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on Precipitation Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for improving radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation is proposed. Tropical vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPRs are first determined from multiple VPRs. Upon identifying a tropical VPR, the event can be further classified as either tropical-stratiform or tropical-convective rainfall by a fuzzy logic (FL algorithm. Based on the precipitation-type fields, the reflectivity values are converted into rainfall rate using a Z-R relationship. In order to evaluate the performance of this rainfall classification scheme, three experiments were conducted using three months of data and two study cases. In Experiment I, the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship was applied. In Experiment II, the precipitation regime was separated into convective and stratiform rainfall using the FL algorithm, and corresponding Z-R relationships were used. In Experiment III, the precipitation regime was separated into convective, stratiform, and tropical rainfall, and the corresponding Z-R relationships were applied. The results show that the rainfall rates obtained from all three experiments match closely with the gauge observations, although Experiment II could solve the underestimation, when compared to Experiment I. Experiment III significantly reduced this underestimation and generated the most accurate radar estimates of rain rate among the three experiments.

  16. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Regional Precipitation Sequences Based on the CEEMDAN-WPT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong; Cheng, Chen; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Chunlei; Li, Mo; Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Li, Tianxiao; Khan, Muhammad Imran; Cui, Song

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with the adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm is introduced into the complexity research of precipitation systems to improve the traditional complexity measure method specific to the mode mixing of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and incomplete decomposition of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). We combined the CEEMDAN with the wavelet packet transform (WPT) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to create the CEEMDAN-WPT-MFDFA, and used it to measure the complexity of the monthly precipitation sequence of 12 sub-regions in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China. The results show that there are significant differences in the monthly precipitation complexity of each sub-region in Harbin. The complexity of the northwest area of Harbin is the lowest and its predictability is the best. The complexity and predictability of the middle and Midwest areas of Harbin are about average. The complexity of the southeast area of Harbin is higher than that of the northwest, middle, and Midwest areas of Harbin and its predictability is worse. The complexity of Shuangcheng is the highest and its predictability is the worst of all the studied sub-regions. We used terrain and human activity as factors to analyze the causes of the complexity of the local precipitation. The results showed that the correlations between the precipitation complexity and terrain are obvious, and the correlations between the precipitation complexity and human influence factors vary. The distribution of the precipitation complexity in this area may be generated by the superposition effect of human activities and natural factors such as terrain, general atmospheric circulation, land and sea location, and ocean currents. To evaluate the stability of the algorithm, the CEEMDAN-WPT-MFDFA was compared with the equal probability coarse graining LZC algorithm, fuzzy entropy, and wavelet entropy. The results show

  17. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  18. Energetic electron precipitation in weak to moderate corotating interaction region-driven storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ødegaard, Linn-Kristine Glesnes; Tyssøy, Hilde Nesse; Søraas, Finn; Stadsnes, Johan; Sandanger, Marit Irene

    2017-03-01

    High-energy electron precipitation from the radiation belts can penetrate deep into the mesosphere and increase the production rate of NOx and HOx, which in turn will reduce ozone in catalytic processes. The mechanisms for acceleration and loss of electrons in the radiation belts are not fully understood, and most of the measurements of the precipitating flux into the atmosphere have been insufficient for estimating the loss cone flux. In the present study the electron flux measured by the NOAA POES Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detectors 0° and 90° detectors is combined together with theory of pitch angle diffusion by wave-particle interaction to quantify the electron flux lost below 120 km altitude. Using this method, 41 weak and moderate geomagnetic storms caused by corotating interaction regions during 2006-2010 are studied. The dependence of the energetic electron precipitation fluxes upon solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices is investigated. Nine storms give increased precipitation of >˜750 keV electrons. Nineteen storms increase the precipitation of >˜300 keV electrons, but not the >˜750 keV population. Thirteen storms either do not change or deplete the fluxes at those energies. Storms that have an increase in the flux of electrons with energy >˜300 keV are characterized by an elevated solar wind velocity for a longer period compared to the storms that do not. Storms with increased precipitation of >˜750 keV flux are distinguished by higher-energy input from the solar wind quantified by the ɛ parameter and corresponding higher geomagnetic activity.

  19. Fractional activation of accumulation-mode particles in warm continental stratiform clouds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillani, N.V.; Daum, P.H.; Schwartz, S.E.; Leaitch, W.R.; Strapp, J.W.; Isaac, G.A.

    1991-07-01

    The degree of activation of accumulation-mode particles (AMP) in clouds has been studied using continuous (1 second average) aircraft measurements of the number concentrations of cloud droplets (N cd , 2 to 35 μm diameter) and of unactivated AMP (N amp , 0.17 to 2.07 μm diameter) in cloud interstitial air. The magnitude and spatial variation of the activated fraction (F) of all measured particles (defined as F triple-bond N cd /N tot , where N tot = N cd + N amp ) are investigated, based on measurements made during ten aircraft flights in non-precipitating warm continental stratiform clouds near Syracuse NY in the fall of 1984. Based on instantaneous observations throughout the clouds, the spatial distribution of F was found to be quite nonuniform. In general, F was low in cloud edges and where total particle loading was high and/or cloud convective activity was low. In the interior of clouds, the value of F exceeded 0.9 for 36% of the data, but was below 0.6 for 28%. Factors influencing F the most were the total particle loading (N tot ) and the thermal stability of the cloud layer. The dependence of F on N tot in cloud interior was characterized by two distinct regimes. For N tot -3 , F was generally close to unity and relatively insensitive to N tot . For N tot > 800 cm -3 , F tended to decrease with increasing N tot . This decrease was greatest in a stable stratus deck embedded in a warm moist airmass. The results suggest that, in warm continental stratiform clouds, the process of particle activation becomes nonlinear and self-limiting at high particle loading. The degree of this nonlinearity depends on cloud convective activity (thermal instability)

  20. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 132, 1-2 (2018), s. 515-527 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * regional climate models * extremes * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0

  1. Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Justin T. Schoof; Scott M. Robeson

    2016-01-01

    Regional and local climate extremes, and their impacts, result from the multifaceted interplay between large-scale climate forcing, local environmental factors (physiography), and societal vulnerability. In this paper, we review historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States, with a focus on strengths and weaknesses of (1) commonly used definitions for extremes such as thresholds and percentiles, (2) statistical approaches to quantifying change...

  2. Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polade, Suraj D; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R; Dettinger, Michael D; Pierce, David W

    2017-09-07

    In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

  3. Survival probability of precipitations and rain attenuation in tropical and equatorial regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi Nia, Masoud; Din, Jafri; Panagopoulos, Athanasios D.; Lam, Hong Yin

    2015-08-01

    This contribution presents a stochastic model useful for the generation of a long-term tropospheric rain attenuation time series for Earth space or a terrestrial radio link in tropical and equatorial heavy rain regions based on the well-known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model previously employed in research in the fields of finance and economics. This model assumes typical gamma distribution for rain attenuation in heavy rain climatic regions and utilises the temporal dynamic of precipitation collected in equatorial Johor, Malaysia. Different formations of survival probability are also discussed. Furthermore, the correlation between these probabilities and the Markov process is determined, and information on the variance and autocorrelation function of rain events with respect to the particular characteristics of precipitation in this area is presented. The proposed technique proved to preserve the peculiarities of precipitation for an equatorial region and reproduce fairly good statistics of the rain attenuation correlation function that could help to improve the prediction of dynamic characteristics of rain fade events.

  4. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

    2016-12-01

    For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

  5. Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Pan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms−1 km−1 and 3.2 ms−1 km−1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.

  6. Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Pan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms−1 km−1 and 3.2 ms−1 km−1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.

  7. Nb(C,N) precipitation kinetics in the bainite region of a low-carbon Nb-microalloyed steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J.S.; Lee, Y.K.

    2007-01-01

    Nb(C,N) precipitation in the bainite region (580-660 deg. C) of a low-carbon Nb-microalloyed steel was investigated by electrical resistivity and transmission electron microscopy. Nb(C,N) particles started precipitating after 100-200 s at isothermal temperatures after bainite transformation and cementite formation, and precipitation finished in 1000-2000 s. The precipitation-time-temperature diagram of Nb(C,N) in the bainite region of a low-carbon microalloyed steel was a type of C-curve, with a nose temperature of about 615 deg. C

  8. Regional Scale High Resolution δ18O Prediction in Precipitation Using MODIS EVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cho-Ying; Wang, Chung-Ho; Lin, Shou-De; Lo, Yi-Chen; Huang, Bo-Wen; Hatch, Kent A.; Shiu, Hau-Jie; You, Cheng-Feng; Chang, Yuan-Mou; Shen, Sheng-Feng

    2012-01-01

    The natural variation in stable water isotope ratio data, also known as water isoscape, is a spatiotemporal fingerprint and a powerful natural tracer that has been widely applied in disciplines as diverse as hydrology, paleoclimatology, ecology and forensic investigation. Although much effort has been devoted to developing a predictive water isoscape model, it remains a central challenge for scientists to generate high accuracy, fine scale spatiotemporal water isoscape prediction. Here we develop a novel approach of using the MODIS-EVI (the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer-Enhanced Vegetation Index), to predict δ18O in precipitation at the regional scale. Using a structural equation model, we show that the EVI and precipitated δ18O are highly correlated and thus the EVI is a good predictor of precipitated δ18O. We then test the predictability of our EVI-δ18O model and demonstrate that our approach can provide high accuracy with fine spatial (250×250 m) and temporal (16 days) scale δ18O predictions (annual and monthly predictabilities [r] are 0.96 and 0.80, respectively). We conclude the merging of the EVI and δ18O in precipitation can greatly extend the spatial and temporal data availability and thus enhance the applicability for both the EVI and water isoscape. PMID:23029053

  9. Quantifying recycled moisture fraction in precipitation of an arid region using deuterium excess

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanlong Kong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial moisture recycling by evapotranspiration has recently been recognised as an important source of precipitation that can be characterised by its isotopic composition. Up to now, this isotope technique has mainly been applied to moisture recycling in some humid regions, including Brazil, Great Lakes in North America and the European Alps. In arid and semi-arid regions, the contribution of transpiration by plants to local moisture recycling can be small, so that evaporation by bare soil and surface water bodies dominates. Recognising that the deuterium excess (d-excess of evaporated moisture is significantly different from that of the original water, we made an attempt to use this isotopic parameter for estimating moisture recycling in the semi-arid region of Eastern Tianshan, China. We measured the d-excess of samples taken from individual precipitation events during a hydrological year from 2003 to 2004 at two Tianshan mountain stations, and we used long-term monthly average values of the d-excess for the station Urumqi, which are available from the International Atomic Energy Agency–World Meteorological Organization (IAEA–WMO Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP. Since apart from recycling of moisture from the ground, sub-cloud evaporation of falling raindrops also affects the d-excess of precipitation, the measured values had to be corrected for this evaporation effect. For the selected stations, the sub-cloud evaporation was found to change between 0.1 and 3.8%, and the d-excess decreased linearly with increasing sub-cloud evaporation at about 1.1‰ per 1% change of sub-cloud evaporation. Assuming simple mixing between advected and recycled moisture, the recycled fraction in precipitation has been estimated to be less than 2.0±0.6% for the Tianshan mountain stations and reach values up to 15.0±0.7% in the Urumqi region. The article includes a discussion of these findings in the context of water cycling in the

  10. Aerosol indirect effects on summer precipitation in a regional climate model for the Euro-Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Nicolas; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe

    2018-03-01

    Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semi-direct effects as well as through their effects on cloud microphysics (indirect effects). The present study investigates the indirect effects of aerosols on summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is located at the crossroads of air masses carrying both natural and anthropogenic aerosols. While it is difficult to disentangle the indirect effects of aerosols from the direct and semi-direct effects in reality, a numerical sensitivity experiment is carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which allows us to isolate indirect effects, all other effects being equal. The Mediterranean hydrological cycle has often been studied using regional climate model (RCM) simulations with parameterized convection, which is the approach we adopt in the present study. For this purpose, the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics scheme is used in a pair of simulations run at 50 km resolution with extremely high and low aerosol concentrations. An additional pair of simulations has been performed at a convection-permitting resolution (3.3 km) to examine these effects without the use of parameterized convection. While the reduced radiative flux due to the direct effects of the aerosols is already known to reduce precipitation amounts, there is still no general agreement on the sign and magnitude of the aerosol indirect forcing effect on precipitation, with various processes competing with each other. Although some processes tend to enhance precipitation amounts, some others tend to reduce them. In these simulations, increased aerosol loads lead to weaker precipitation in the parameterized (low-resolution) configuration. The fact that a similar result is obtained for a selected area in the convection-permitting (high-resolution) configuration allows for physical interpretations. By examining the key variables in the model outputs, we propose a causal chain that links the aerosol

  11. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation for the identification of debris flow occurrence over earthquake-affected regions in Sichuan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Zhao; Wei, Fangqiang; Chandrasekar, Venkatachalam

    2018-03-01

    Both Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 and Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake on 20 April 2013 occurred in the province of Sichuan, China. In the earthquake-affected mountainous area, a large amount of loose material caused a high occurrence of debris flow during the rainy season. In order to evaluate the rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold of the debris flow in the earthquake-affected area, and to fill up the observational gaps caused by the relatively scarce and low-altitude deployment of rain gauges in this area, raw data from two S-band China New Generation Doppler Weather Radar (CINRAD) were captured for six rainfall events that triggered 519 debris flows between 2012 and 2014. Due to the challenges of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) over mountainous areas, a series of improvement measures are considered: a hybrid scan mode, a vertical reflectivity profile (VPR) correction, a mosaic of reflectivity, a merged rainfall-reflectivity (R - Z) relationship for convective and stratiform rainfall, and rainfall bias adjustment with Kalman filter (KF). For validating rainfall accumulation over complex terrains, the study areas are divided into two kinds of regions by the height threshold of 1.5 km from the ground. Three kinds of radar rainfall estimates are compared with rain gauge measurements. It is observed that the normalized mean bias (NMB) is decreased by 39 % and the fitted linear ratio between radar and rain gauge observation reaches at 0.98. Furthermore, the radar-based I-D threshold derived by the frequentist method is I = 10.1D-0.52 and is underestimated by uncorrected raw radar data. In order to verify the impacts on observations due to spatial variation, I-D thresholds are identified from the nearest rain gauge observations and radar observations at the rain gauge locations. It is found that both kinds of observations have similar I-D thresholds and likewise underestimate I-D thresholds due to undershooting at the core of convective

  12. Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

  13. Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liselotte Bach

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERA-Interim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of six-hourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA.

  14. Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF model has been utilized to generate quantitative precipitation forecasts with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, factors including horizontal resolution, domain size, and the physical parameterization scheme have a strong impact on the dynamic downscaling ability of the WRF model. In this study, the influence of these factors has been analyzed in precipitation forecasting for the Xijiang Basin, southern China—a region with complex topography. The results indicate that higher horizontal resolutions always result in higher Critical Success Indexes (CSI, but higher biases as well. Meanwhile, the precipitation forecast skills are also influenced by the combination of microphysics parameterization scheme and cumulus convective parameterization scheme. On the basis of these results, an optimized configuration of the WRF model is built in which the horizontal resolution is 10 km, the microphysics parameterization is the Lin scheme, and the cumulus convective parameterization is the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme. This configuration is then evaluated by simulating the daily weather during the 2013–2014 flood season. The high Critical Success Index scores and low biases at various thresholds and lead times confirm the high accuracy of the optimized WRF model configuration for Xijiang Basin. However, the performance of the WRF model varies from different sub-basins due to the complexity of the mesoscale convective system (MCS over this region.

  15. Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

    2017-12-01

    Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

  16. Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

    2018-04-01

    Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

  17. Variation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Based on Elasticity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erhui Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010, Huangfuchuan watershed (from 1954 to 2010, and Yanhe watershed (from 1952 to 2010 in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The results showed that runoff appeared a significant decreasing trend (P=0.01 while it was not significant in precipitation in all study areas. In particular, the reductions of average annual runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed were 72.7%, 87.5%, and 32.2%, respectively, during 2000–2010 compared to the 1950s. There existed two abrupt change points of the runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region and Huangfuchuan watershed, which were detected in 1979 and 1998. But in the Yanhe watershed only one abrupt change point was found in 1996. The precipitation elasticities of runoff were 1.11, 1.09, and 1.26, respectively, and the contributions of precipitation on runoff reduction were 26.4%, 17.9%, and 31.6%, respectively, in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed.

  18. Variation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Based on Elasticity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Erhui; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Shao, Hongbo

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan watershed (from 1954 to 2010), and Yanhe watershed (from 1952 to 2010) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The results showed that runoff appeared a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.01) while it was not significant in precipitation in all study areas. In particular, the reductions of average annual runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed were 72.7%, 87.5%, and 32.2%, respectively, during 2000–2010 compared to the 1950s. There existed two abrupt change points of the runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region and Huangfuchuan watershed, which were detected in 1979 and 1998. But in the Yanhe watershed only one abrupt change point was found in 1996. The precipitation elasticities of runoff were 1.11, 1.09, and 1.26, respectively, and the contributions of precipitation on runoff reduction were 26.4%, 17.9%, and 31.6%, respectively, in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed. PMID:24955424

  19. Variation of runoff and precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen region of the Yellow River based on elasticity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Erhui; Mu, Xingmin; Zhao, Guangju; Gao, Peng; Shao, Hongbo

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan watershed (from 1954 to 2010), and Yanhe watershed (from 1952 to 2010) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The results showed that runoff appeared a significant decreasing trend (P = 0.01) while it was not significant in precipitation in all study areas. In particular, the reductions of average annual runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed were 72.7%, 87.5%, and 32.2%, respectively, during 2000-2010 compared to the 1950s. There existed two abrupt change points of the runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region and Huangfuchuan watershed, which were detected in 1979 and 1998. But in the Yanhe watershed only one abrupt change point was found in 1996. The precipitation elasticities of runoff were 1.11, 1.09, and 1.26, respectively, and the contributions of precipitation on runoff reduction were 26.4%, 17.9%, and 31.6%, respectively, in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed.

  20. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

  1. An example of economical evaluation of stratiform uranium ore deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyata, Hatsuho; Tabuchi, Akihiro; Ushijima, Kenichi.

    1992-01-01

    The Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development corp. has carried out the business of uranium resource investigation and exploration in foreign countries aiming at securing uranium resources. If there is the possibility of economically developing the discovered uranium deposit, it is transferred to a Japanese private enterprise. In this paper, among the economical evaluation works that were carried out for the uranium deposits discovered by the Corp., the example of the initial economical evaluation for a stratiform uranium deposit carried out recently is reported. The deposit is located at the depth of 50 m - 70 m, and is a stratiform deposit having the extension of 4000 m x 1000 m. The boring investigation of about 350 holes was carried out for it. The estimation of the amount of uranium was done, and the production plan was made considering the scale of production, the characteristics of the ore, the circumstances of the site and so on. Based on the production plan, the initial expenses and the operation expenses were calculated. The design of the optimal pit which affects most the profitability and the economical evaluation were carried out. (K.I.)

  2. Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

    2018-02-01

    This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

  3. Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Martin; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

    2018-04-01

    A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as `field' or `global' significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ∘ grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990-2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is

  4. Serial Analysis of Ten Precipitation-Based Indices by Land Use in Semiarid Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rodríguez-Moreno

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Open ecosystems in Mexico are under increasing pressure, due particularly to the expansion of cities and agricultural activities. These developments occur without integrating biodiversity concerns in land use planning and result in extensive fragmentation and transformation of the landscapes. The semiarid region of Mesa Central was characterized using ten precipitation-based indices. Using multivariate statistical and geostatistical spatial analysis techniques, the influence of those indices on five land use strata was explored. Land use analysis indicated that the maximum values of the five significant precipitation-based indices were found in Grasslands, Agricultural Use, and Shrubs; minimum values were characteristic of substrates Secondary Desert Vegetation and Other Use. Our results suggest that the greatest number of extreme precipitation events is likely to occur in open ecosystems and consequently will have a strong influence on landscaping and land use. The semivariogram analysis and geostatistical layers demand attention from research institutions, policy makers, researchers, and food producers to take the appropriate and coordinated actions to propose scenarios to deal with climate change. Perhaps this study can stimulate thought concerning research endeavours aimed at promoting initiatives for biodiversity conservation and planning programs for climate change mitigation.

  5. An adaptive spatial model for precipitation data from multiple satellites over large regions

    KAUST Repository

    Chakraborty, Avishek

    2015-03-01

    Satellite measurements have of late become an important source of information for climate features such as precipitation due to their near-global coverage. In this article, we look at a precipitation dataset during a 3-hour window over tropical South America that has information from two satellites. We develop a flexible hierarchical model to combine instantaneous rainrate measurements from those satellites while accounting for their potential heterogeneity. Conceptually, we envision an underlying precipitation surface that influences the observed rain as well as absence of it. The surface is specified using a mean function centered at a set of knot locations, to capture the local patterns in the rainrate, combined with a residual Gaussian process to account for global correlation across sites. To improve over the commonly used pre-fixed knot choices, an efficient reversible jump scheme is used to allow the number of such knots as well as the order and support of associated polynomial terms to be chosen adaptively. To facilitate computation over a large region, a reduced rank approximation for the parent Gaussian process is employed.

  6. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  7. Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2018-03-01

    Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

  8. Diurnal variations of summer precipitation over the regions east to Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yang; Huang, Anning; Huang, Danqing; Chen, Fei; Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Fang, Dexian; Zhang, Lujun; Wen, Lijuan

    2017-12-01

    Based on the hourly gauge-satellite merged precipitation product with the horizontal resolution of 0.1° latitude/longitude during 2008-2014, diurnal variations of the summer precipitation amount (PA), frequency (PF), and intensity (PI) with different duration time over the regions east to Tibetan Plateau have been systematically revealed in this study. Results indicate that the eight typical precipitation diurnal patterns identified by the cluster analysis display pronounced regional features among the plateaus, basins, plains, hilly and coastal areas. The precipitation diurnal cycles are significantly affected by the sub-grid terrain fluctuations. The PA, PF and PI of the total rainfall show much more pronounced double diurnal peaks with the sub-grid topography standard deviation (SD) decreased. Meanwhile, the diurnal peaks of PA and PF (PI) strengthen (weaken) with the sub-grid topography SD enhanced. Over the elevated mountain ranges, southeastern hilly and coastal regions, the PA and PF diurnal patterns of the total rainfall generally show predominant late-afternoon peaks, which are closely associated with the short-duration (≤slant 3 h) rainfall. Along the Tibetan Plateau to its downstream, the diurnal peaks of PA, PF and PI for the total rainfall all exhibit obvious eastward phase time delay mainly due to the diurnal evolutions of long-duration (> 6 h) rainfall. However, the 4-6 h rainfall leads to the eastward phase time delay of the total rainfall along the Taihang Mountains to its downstream. Further mechanism analysis suggests that the midnight to morning diurnal evolution of the long-duration rainfall is closely associated with the diurnal variations of the upward branches of thermally driven mountain-plain solenoids and the water vapor transport associated with the accelerated nocturnal southwesterly winds. The late-afternoon peak of the short-duration PA over the southeastern hilly and coastal regions is ascribed to the strong local thermal

  9. Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

    2017-08-01

    Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

  10. Electron precipitation burst in the nighttime slot region measured simultaneously from two satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imhof, W.L.; Voss, H.D.; Mobilla, J.; Gaines, E.E.; Evans, D.S.

    1987-01-01

    Based on data acquired in 1982 with the Stimulated Emission of Energetic Particles payload on the low-altitude (170--280 km) S81-1 spacecraft and the Space Environment Monitor instrumentation on the NOAA 6 satellite (800--830 km), a study has been made of short-duration nighttime electron precipitation bursts at L = 2.0--35. From 54 passes of each satellite across the slot region simultaneously in time, 21 bursts were observed on the NOAA 6 spacecraft, and 76 on the S81-1 satellite. Five events, probably associated with lightning, were observed simultaneously from the two spacecraft within 1.2 s, providing a measure of the spatial extent of the bursts. This limited sample indicates that the intensity of precipitation events falls off with width in longitude and L shell but individual events extend as much as 5 0 in invariant latitude and 43 0 in longitude. The number of events above a given flux observed in each satellite was found to be approximately inversely proportional to the flux. The time average energy input to the atmosphere over the longitude range 180 0 E to 360 0 E at a local time of 2230 directly from short-duration bursts spanning a wide range of intensity enhancements was estimated to be about 6 x 10/sup -6/ ergs/cm 2 s in the northern hemisphere and about 1.5 x 10/sup -5/ ergs/cm 2 s in the southern hemisphere. In the south, this energy precipitation rate is lower than that from electrons in the drift loss cone by about 2 orders of magnitude. However, on the basis of these data alone we cannot discount weak bursts from being a major contributor to populating the drift loss cone with electrons which ultimately precipitate into the atmosphere. copyrightAmerican Geophysical Union 1987

  11. Rain cell-based identification of the vertical profile of reflectivity as observed by weather radar and its use for precipitation uncertainty estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-04-01

    The wide scale implementation of weather radar systems over the last couple of decades has increased our understanding concerning spatio-temporal precipitation dynamics. However, the quantitative estimation of precipitation by these devices is affected by many sources of error. A very dominant source of error results from vertical variations in the hydrometeor size distribution known as the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). Since the height of the measurement as well as the beam volume increases with distance from the radar, for stratiform precipitation this results in a serious underestimation (overestimation) of the surface reflectivity while sampling within the snow (bright band) region. This research presents a precipitation cell-based implementation to correct volumetric weather radar measurements for VPR effects. Using the properties of a flipping carpenter square, a contour-based identification technique was developed, which is able to identify and track precipitation cells in real time, distinguishing between convective, stratiform and undefined precipitation. For the latter two types of systems, for each individual cell, a physically plausible vertical profile of reflectivity is estimated using a Monte Carlo optimization method. Since it can be expected that the VPR will vary within a given precipitation cell, a method was developed to take the uncertainty of the VPR estimate into account. As a result, we are able to estimate the amount of precipitation uncertainty as observed by weather radar due to VPR for a given precipitation type and storm cell. We demonstrate the possibilities of this technique for a number of winter precipitation systems observed within the Belgian Ardennes. For these systems, in general, the precipitation uncertainty estimate due to vertical reflectivity profile variations varies between 10-40%.

  12. A numerical study of aerosol influence on mixed-phase stratiform clouds through modulation of the liquid phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. de Boer

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations were carried out in a high-resolution two-dimensional framework to increase our understanding of aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase stratiform clouds. Aerosol characteristics explored include insoluble particle type, soluble mass fraction, influence of aerosol-induced freezing point depression and influence of aerosol number concentration. Simulations were analyzed with a focus on the processes related to liquid phase microphysics, and ice formation was limited to droplet freezing. Of the aerosol properties investigated, aerosol insoluble mass type and its associated freezing efficiency was found to be most relevant to cloud lifetime. Secondary effects from aerosol soluble mass fraction and number concentration also alter cloud characteristics and lifetime. These alterations occur via various mechanisms, including changes to the amount of nucleated ice, influence on liquid phase precipitation and ice riming rates, and changes to liquid droplet nucleation and growth rates. Alteration of the aerosol properties in simulations with identical initial and boundary conditions results in large variability in simulated cloud thickness and lifetime, ranging from rapid and complete glaciation of liquid to the production of long-lived, thick stratiform mixed-phase cloud.

  13. Validation of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Busuioc, Aristita

    2016-04-01

    EURO-CORDEX is the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative that aims to provide improved regional climate change projections for Europe. The main objective of this paper is to document the performance of the individual models in reproducing the variability of precipitation extremes in Romania. Here three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble (scenario RCP4.5) are analysed and inter-compared: DMI-HIRHAM5, KNMI-RACMO2.2 and MPI-REMO. Compared to previous studies, when the RCM validation regarding the Romanian climate has mainly been made on mean state and at station scale, a more quantitative approach of precipitation extremes is proposed. In this respect, to have a more reliable comparison with observation, a high resolution daily precipitation gridded data set was used as observational reference (CLIMHYDEX project). The comparison between the RCM outputs and observed grid point values has been made by calculating three extremes precipitation indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI), for the 1976-2005 period: R10MM, annual count of days when precipitation ≥10mm; RX5DAY, annual maximum 5-day precipitation and R95P%, precipitation fraction of annual total precipitation due to daily precipitation > 95th percentile. The RCMs capability to reproduce the mean state for these variables, as well as the main modes of their spatial variability (given by the first three EOF patterns), are analysed. The investigation confirms the ability of RCMs to simulate the main features of the precipitation extreme variability over Romania, but some deficiencies in reproducing of their regional characteristics were found (for example, overestimation of the mea state, especially over the extra Carpathian regions). This work has been realised within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian

  14. A Study of Precipitation Climatology and Its Variability over Europe Using an Advanced Regional Model (WRF)

    KAUST Repository

    Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2015-03-06

    In recent years long-term precipitation trends on a regional scale have been given emphasis due to the impacts of global warming on regional hydrology. In this study, regional precipitation trends are simulated over the Europe continent for a 60-year period in 1950-2010 using an advanced regional model, WRF, to study extreme precipitation events over Europe. The model runs continuously for each year during the period at a horizontal resolution of 25 km with initial/ boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2.5 degree reanalysis data sets. The E-OBS 0.25 degree rainfall observation analysis is used for model validation. Results indicate that the model could reproduce the spatial annual rainfall pattern over Europe with low amounts (250 - 750 mm) in Iberian Peninsula, moderate to large amounts (750 - 1500 mm) in central, eastern and northeastern parts of Europe and extremely heavy falls (1500 - 2000 mm) in hilly areas of Alps with a slight overestimation in Alps and underestimation in other parts of Europe. The regional model integrations showed increasing errors (mean absolute errors) and decreasing correlations with increasing time scale (daily to seasonal). Rainfall is simulated relatively better in Iberian Peninsula, northwest and central parts of Europe. A large spatial variability with the highest number of wet days over eastern, central Europe and Alps (~200 days/year) and less number of wet days over Iberian Peninsula (≤150 days/year) is also found in agreement with observations. The model could simulate the spatial rainfall climate variability reasonably well with low rainfall days (1 - 10 mm/days) in almost all zones, heavy rainfall events in western, northern, southeastern hilly and coastal zones and extremely heavy rainfall events in northern coastal zones. An increasing trend of heavy rainfall in central, southern and southeastern parts, a decreasing trend in Iberian Peninsula and a steady trend in other

  15. African aerosol and large-scale precipitation variability over West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Jingfeng; Zhang Chidong; Prospero, Joseph M

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the large-scale connection between African aerosol and precipitation in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using 8-year (2000-2007) monthly and daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol products (aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and rain type. These high-quality data further confirmed our previous results that the large-scale link between aerosol and precipitation in this region undergoes distinct seasonal and spatial variability. Previously detected suppression of precipitation during months of high aerosol concentration occurs in both convective and stratiform rain, but not systematically in shallow rain. This suggests the suppression of deep convection due to the aerosol. Based on the seasonal cycle of dust and smoke and their geographical distribution, our data suggest that both dust (coarse mode aerosol) and smoke (fine mode aerosol) contribute to the precipitation suppression. However, the dust effect is evident over the Gulf of Guinea while the smoke effect is evident over both land and ocean. A back trajectory analysis further demonstrates that the precipitation reduction is statistically linked to the upwind aerosol concentration. This study suggests that African aerosol outbreaks in the WAM region can influence precipitation in the local monsoon system which has direct societal impact on the local community. It calls for more systematic investigations to determine the modulating mechanisms using both observational and modeling approaches.

  16. Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

    2017-12-01

    The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

  17. Using High Energy Precipitation for Magnetic Mapping in the Nightside Transition Region During Dynamic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanswick, E.

    2017-12-01

    Identifying the magnetic footprint of a satellite can be done using the in situ observations together with some ionospheric or low-altitude satellite observation to argue that the two measurements were made on the same field line. Nishimura et al. [2011], e.g., correlated a time series of chorus wave power near the magnetic equator with the time series of intensities of every pixel of a is roughly magnetically conjugate ASI. Often, the pattern of correlation shows a well-defined peak at the location of the satellite's magnetic footprint. Their results cannot be replicated during dynamic events (e.g., substorms), because the required auroral forms do not occur at such times. It would be important if we could make mappings with such confidence during active times. The Transition Region Explorer (TREx), which is presently being implemented, is a new ground-based facility that will remote sense electron precipitation across 3 hours of MLT and 12 degrees of magnetic latitude spanning the auroral zone in western Canada. TREx includes the world's first imaging riometers array with a contiguous field of view large enough to seamlessly track the spatio-temporal evolution of high energy electron precipitation at mesoscales. Two studies motivated the TREx riometers array. First, Baker et al. [1981] demonstrated riometer absorption is an excellent proxy for the electron energy flux integrated from 30 keV to 200keV keV at the magnetic equator on the flux tube corresponding to the location of that riometers. Second, Spanswick et al. [2007] showed the correlation between the riometers absorption and the integrated electron energy flux near the magnetic equator peaked when the satellite was nearest to conjugate to the riometers. Here we present observations using CANOPUS single beam riometers and CRRES MEB to illustrate how the relative closeness of the footpoint of an equatorial spacecraft can be assessed using high energy precipitation. As well, we present the capabilities of

  18. Contemporary ground-based and satellite precipitating system characterization for desertification studies in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casazza

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available During the research project RIADE (Ricerca Integrata per l'Applicazione di tecnologie e processi innovativi per la lotta alla DEsertificazione, devoted to the study on the potential risk of desertification in Southern Italy, a particular attention has been paid also to the analysis of precipitations from three surface stations (Licata, Sicily; Rotondella, Basilicata; Surigheddu, Sardinia in order to improve the knowledge derived from the most modern climatological studies related to this subject. The point of view adopted is to better define the precipitation microphysical properties (in particular, the Drop Size Distribution, DSD, and its moments, which are deeply related to the cloud system that generates the precipitation events. In particular we have used a newly introduced Convective Stratiform discrimination technique, that allowed us to observe a prevalence of events, concentrated along Winter (Wi season, of different microphysical nature. In fact the prevailing Stratiform nature is related to Licata station, while for Surigheddu and for Rotondella the nature is mainly Convective. This distinction is related to the presence of drops of bigger dimensions and more intense precipitations in the latter case, while, in the former case, a prevalence of smaller drops and a less intense precipitation is recorded. This confirms the distinctive belonging to three different climatic regions, as indicated in the study by Brunetti et al. (2006. Our findings are important in the framework of desertification studies, because the cause of desertification can be related either to fertile soils removal (in the case of Convective events or to lack of precipitated water (in the case of Stratiform events. We have also analysed a sub-set of ten events, with contemporary presence of data from VIS/IR channels of METEOSAT-7, SSM/I data from F13 and MODIS data from Terra platform. This has been done both to confirm the findings of PLUDIX data analysis (which

  19. Contemporary ground-based and satellite precipitating system characterization for desertification studies in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casazza

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available During the research project RIADE (Ricerca Integrata per l'Applicazione di tecnologie e processi innovativi per la lotta alla DEsertificazione, devoted to the study on the potential risk of desertification in Southern Italy, a particular attention has been paid also to the analysis of precipitations from three surface stations (Licata, Sicily; Rotondella, Basilicata; Surigheddu, Sardinia in order to improve the knowledge derived from the most modern climatological studies related to this subject. The point of view adopted is to better define the precipitation microphysical properties (in particular, the Drop Size Distribution, DSD, and its moments, which are deeply related to the cloud system that generates the precipitation events. In particular we have used a newly introduced Convective Stratiform discrimination technique, that allowed us to observe a prevalence of events, concentrated along Winter (Wi season, of different microphysical nature. In fact the prevailing Stratiform nature is related to Licata station, while for Surigheddu and for Rotondella the nature is mainly Convective. This distinction is related to the presence of drops of bigger dimensions and more intense precipitations in the latter case, while, in the former case, a prevalence of smaller drops and a less intense precipitation is recorded. This confirms the distinctive belonging to three different climatic regions, as indicated in the study by Brunetti et al. (2006. Our findings are important in the framework of desertification studies, because the cause of desertification can be related either to fertile soils removal (in the case of Convective events or to lack of precipitated water (in the case of Stratiform events. We have also analysed a sub-set of ten events, with contemporary presence of data from VIS/IR channels of METEOSAT-7, SSM/I data from F13 and MODIS data from Terra platform. This has been done both to confirm the findings of PLUDIX data analysis (which is

  20. Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Deidda

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the relative performance of several climate models in providing reliable forcing for hydrological modeling in six representative catchments in the Mediterranean region. We consider 14 Regional Climate Models (RCMs, from the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project, run for the A1B emission scenario on a common 0.22° (about 24 km rotated grid over Europe and the Mediterranean region. In the validation period (1951 to 2010 we consider daily precipitation and surface temperatures from the observed data fields (E-OBS data set, available from the ENSEMBLES project and the data providers in the ECA&D project. Our primary objective is to rank the 14 RCMs for each catchment and select the four best-performing ones to use as common forcing for hydrological models in the six Mediterranean basins considered in the EU-FP7 CLIMB project. Using a common suite of four RCMs for all studied catchments reduces the (epistemic uncertainty when evaluating trends and climate change impacts in the 21st century. We present and discuss the validation setting, as well as the obtained results and, in some detail, the difficulties we experienced when processing the data. In doing so we also provide useful information and advice for researchers not directly involved in climate modeling, but interested in the use of climate model outputs for hydrological modeling and, more generally, climate change impact studies in the Mediterranean region.

  1. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  2. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2018-06-01

    Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

  3. Hydrological Utility and Uncertainty of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products in the Mountainous Region of South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Pil Kim

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-derived precipitation can be a potential source of forcing data for assessing water availability and managing water supply in mountainous regions of East Asia. This study investigates the hydrological utility of satellite-derived precipitation and uncertainties attributed to error propagation of satellite products in hydrological modeling. To this end, four satellite precipitation products (tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA version 6 (TMPAv6 and version 7 (TMPAv7, the global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP, and the climate prediction center (CPC morphing technique (CMORPH were integrated into a physically-based hydrologic model for the mountainous region of South Korea. The satellite precipitation products displayed different levels of accuracy when compared to the intra- and inter-annual variations of ground-gauged precipitation. As compared to the GSMaP and CMORPH products, superior performances were seen when the TMPA products were used within streamflow simulations. Significant dry (negative biases in the GSMaP and CMORPH products led to large underestimates of streamflow during wet-summer seasons. Although the TMPA products displayed a good level of performance for hydrologic modeling, there were some over/underestimates of precipitation by satellites during the winter season that were induced by snow accumulation and snowmelt processes. These differences resulted in streamflow simulation uncertainties during the winter and spring seasons. This study highlights the crucial need to understand hydrological uncertainties from satellite-derived precipitation for improved water resource management and planning in mountainous basins. Furthermore, it is suggested that a reliable snowfall detection algorithm is necessary for the new global precipitation measurement (GPM mission.

  4. Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, K. E.

    2006-12-01

    The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global

  5. Modelling the regional climate and isotopic composition of Svalbard precipitation using REMOiso

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Divine..[], D.V.; Sjolte, Jesper; Isaksson, E.

    2011-01-01

    Simulations of a regional (approx. 50 km resolution) circulation model REMOiso with embedded stable water isotope module covering the period 1958-2001 are compared with the two instrumental climate and four isotope series (d18O) from western Svalbard. We examine the data from ice cores drilled...... than summer. The simulated and measured Holtedahlfonna d18O series agree reasonably well, whereas no significant correlation has been observed between the modelled and measured Lomonosovfonna ice core isotopic series. It is shown that sporadic nature as well as variability in the amount inherent...... in reproducing the local climate. The model successfully captures the climate variations on the daily to multidecadal times scales although it tends to systematically underestimate the winter SAT. Analysis suggests that REMOiso performs better at simulating isotope compositions of precipitation in the winter...

  6. Regional interdependency of precipitation indices across Denmark in two ensembles of high-resolution RCMs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2013-01-01

    all these methods is that the climate models are independent. This study addresses the validity of this assumption for two ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) from the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project based on the land cells covering Denmark....... Daily precipitation indices from an ensemble of RCMs driven by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) and an ensemble of the same RCMs driven by different general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Two different methods are used to estimate the amount of independent information in the ensembles....... These are based on different statistical properties of a measure of climate model error. Additionally, a hierarchical cluster analysis is carried out. Regardless of the method used, the effective number of RCMs is smaller than the total number of RCMs. The estimated effective number of RCMs varies depending...

  7. Trend and change point analyses of annual precipitation in the Souss-Massa Region in Morocco during 1932-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.

    2017-11-01

    In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.

  8. Climate change and precipitation evolution in Ifran region (Middle Atlas of Morocco).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddad, H.; Bakhat, M.; Damnati, B.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability and extreme climatic events pose significant risks to human beings and generate terrestrial ecosystem dysfunctions. These effects are usually amplified by an inappropriate use of the existing natural resources. To face the new context of climate change, a rational and efficient use of these resources - particularly, water resource - on a global and regional scale must be implemented. Annual precipitation provides an overall amount of water, the assessment and management of this water is complicated due to the spatio-temporal variation of disturbance (aridity, rainfall intensity, length of dry season...). Therefore, understanding rainfall behavior would at least help to plan interventions to manage this resource and protect ecosystems that depend on it. Time-series analysis has become one of the major tools in hydrology. It is used for building mathematical models to detect trends and shifts in hydrologic records and to forecast hydrologic events. In this paper we present a case study of IFRAN region, which is situated in the Middle Atlas Mountains in Morocco. This study deals with modeling and forecasting rainfall time series using monthly rainfall data for the period 1970-2005. To determine the seasonal properties of this series we used first the Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model, and we expended the analysis with the Hylleberg-Engle-Granger-Yoo (HEGY) tests. The results of time series modeling showed the presence of significant deterministic seasonal pattern and no seasonal unit roots. This means that the series is stationary in all frequencies. The model can be used to predict rainfall in IFRAN and near sites; this prediction is not without interest in so far as any information about these random variables could provide a contribution to the researches made in domain for fighting against climate change. It doesn't give solutions to eradicate the precipitation variability phenomenon, but just to adapt to it.

  9. An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)

  10. Estimating long-term statistics for annual precipitation for six regions of the United States from tree-ring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritts, H.C.; DeWitt, E.; Gordon, G.A.; Hunt, J.H.; Lofgren, G.R.

    1979-12-01

    Spatial anomalies of seasonal precipitation for the United States and southwestern Canada have been reconstructed from 1602 through 1961 using dendrochronological and multivariate techniques on 65 arid-site tree-ring chronologies from western North America. Seasonal reconstructions are averaged to obtain mean annual precipitation values for six regions of importance to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Nuclear Waste Management Program (NWMP). Statistics calculated from the regionally averaged annual values for 25-year and longer intervals show annual precipitation in the seventeenth through nineteenth centuries to be lower than in the twentieth century for three regions in the American Southwest and higher for one region in the Northwest and two regions in the East. The variability of precipitation generally was higher in the past three centuries than in the present century. Twenty-five-year intervals with noteworthy statistics are identified and important results are summarized and tabulated for use in the hydrologic modeling of the NWMP. Additional research is recommended to incorporate temperature and precipitation into a single hydrologic parameter

  11. Can small island mountains provide relief from the Subtropical Precipitation Decline? Simulating future precipitation regimes for small island nations using high resolution Regional Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, J.; Terando, A. J.; Misra, V.; Wootten, A.

    2017-12-01

    Small island nations are vulnerable to changes in the hydrologic cycle because of their limited water resources. This risk to water security is likely even higher in sub-tropical regions where anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is expected to lead to a drier future (the so-called `dry-get-drier' pattern). However, high-resolution numerical modeling experiments have also shown an enhancement of existing orographically-influenced precipitation patterns on islands with steep topography, potentially mitigating subtropical drying on windward mountain sides. Here we explore the robustness of the near-term (25-45 years) subtropical precipitation decline (SPD) across two island groupings in the Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These islands, forming the boundary between the Greater and Lesser Antilles, significantly differ in size, topographic relief, and orientation to prevailing winds. Two 2-km horizontal resolution regional climate model simulations are used to downscale a total of three different GCMs under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. Results indicate some possibility for modest increases in precipitation at the leading edge of the Luquillo Mountains in Puerto Rico, but consistent declines elsewhere. We conclude with a discussion of potential explanations for these patterns and the attendant risks to water security that subtropical small island nations could face as the climate warms.

  12. Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2008-05-15

    In this study the potential future changes in various aspects of daily precipitation events over Europe as a consequence of the anticipated future increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated. This is done by comparing two 3-member ensembles of simulations with the HIRHAM regional climate model for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, respectively. Daily precipitation events are characterized by their frequency and intensity, and heavy precipitation events are described via 30-year return levels of daily precipitation. Further, extended periods with and without rainfall (wet and dry spells) are studied, considering their frequency and length as well as the average and extreme amounts of precipitation accumulated during wet spells, the latter again described via 30-year return levels. The simulations show marked changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe due to the anticipated greenhouse warming. In winter, for instance, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except for the region on the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean region. The changes in the intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are characterized by a similar pattern except for central Europe with a tendency of decreased 30-year return levels and increased precipitation intensity. In summer, on the other hand, the frequency of wet days is decreased over most of Europe except for northern Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. In contrast, the precipitation intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are increased over entire Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe. The changes in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are generally stronger than the corresponding changes in the precipitation intensity but can have opposite signs in some regions. Also the distribution of wet days is changed in the future. During summer, for instance, both the frequency and the length

  13. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

    2016-01-01

    Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ense...

  14. Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén

    2018-06-01

    West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

  15. A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite Derived Precipitable Water Vapor Across The Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLiberty, Tracy; Callahan, John; Guillory, Anthony R.; Jedlovec, Gary

    2000-01-01

    Atmospheric water vapor is widely recognized as a key climate variable, linking an assortment of poorly understood and complex processes. It is a major element of the hydrological cycle and provides a mechanism for energy exchange among many of the Earth system components. Reducing uncertainty in our current knowledge of water vapor and its role in the climate system requires accurate measurement, improved modeling techniques, and long-term prediction. Satellites have the potential to satisfy these criteria, as well as provide high resolution measurements that are not available from conventional sources. The focus of this paper is to examine the temporal and mesoscale variations of satellite derived precipitable water vapor (PW) across the Amazon Basin. This region is pivotal in the functioning of the global climate system through its abundant release of latent heat associated with heavy precipitation events. In addition, anthropogenic deforestation and biomass burning activities in recent decades are altering the conditions of the atmosphere, especially in the planetary boundary layer. A physical split-window (PSW) algorithm estimates PW using images from the GOES satellites along with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data that provides the first guess information. Retrievals are made at a three-hourly time step during daylight hours in the Amazon Basin and surrounding areas for the months of June and October in 1988 (dry year) and 1995 (wet year). Spatially continuous fields are generated 5 times daily at 12Z, 15Z, 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z. These fields are then averaged to create monthly and 3 hourly monthly grids. Overall, the PSW estimates PW reasonable well in the Amazon with MAE ranging from 3.0 - 9.0 mm and MAE/observed mean around 20% in comparison to radiosonde observations. The distribution of PW generally mimics that of precipitation. Maximum values (42 - 52 mm) are located in the Northwest whereas minimum values (18 - 27 mm) are found along Brazil's East coast. Aside

  16. Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  17. Microscopic evaluation of trace metals in cloud droplets in an acid precipitation region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weijun; Wang, Yan; Collett, Jeffrey L; Chen, Jianmin; Zhang, Xiaoye; Wang, Zifa; Wang, Wenxing

    2013-05-07

    Mass concentrations of soluble trace metals and size, number, and mixing properties of nanometal particles in clouds determine their toxicity to ecosystems. Cloud water was found to be acidic, with a pH of 3.52, at Mt. Lu (elevation 1,165 m) in an acid precipitation region in South China. A combination of Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICPMS) and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) for the first time demonstrates that the soluble metal concentrations and solid metal particle number are surprisingly high in acid clouds at Mt. Lu, where daily concentrations of SO2, NO2, and PM10 are 18 μg m(-3), 7 μg m(-3), and 22 μg m(-3). The soluble metals in cloudwater with the highest concentrations were zinc (Zn, 200 μg L(-1)), iron (Fe, 88 μg L(-1)), and lead (Pb, 77 μg L(-1)). TEM reveals that 76% of cloud residues include metal particles that range from 50 nm to 1 μm diameter with a median diameter of 250 nm. Four major metal-associated particle types are Pb-rich (35%), fly ash (27%), Fe-rich (23%), and Zn-rich (15%). Elemental mapping shows that minor soluble metals are distributed within sulfates of cloud residues. Emissions of fine metal particles from large, nonferrous industries and coal-fired power plants with tall stacks were transported upward to this high elevation. Our results suggest that the abundant trace metals in clouds aggravate the impacts of acid clouds or associated precipitation on the ecosystem and human health.

  18. Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Alex

    2017-04-01

    univariate technique, and cannot incorporate information from additional covariates, for example ENSO state or physiographic controls on extreme rainfall within a region. Here, the univariate MQR model is extended to allow the use of multiple covariates. Multivariate monotone quantile regression (MMQR) is based on a single hidden-layer feedforward network with the quantile regression error function and partial monotonicity constraints. The MMQR model is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations and the estimation and visualization of regional trends in moderate rainfall extremes based on homogenized sub-daily precipitation data at stations in Canada.

  19. Oak Forest Responses to Episodic-Seasonal-Drought, Chronic Multi-year Precipitation Change and Acute Drought Manipulations in a Region With Deep Soils and High Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Paul J.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Todd, Donald E.; Auge, Robert M.; Froberg, Mats; Johnson, Dale W.

    2010-05-01

    Implications of episodic-seasonal drought (extremely dry late summers), chronic multi-year precipitation manipulations (±33 percent over 12 years) and acute drought (-100 percent over 3 years) were evaluated for the response of vegetation and biogeochemical cycles for an upland-oak forest. The Quercus-Acer forest is located in eastern Tennessee on deep acidic soils with mean annual temperatures of 14.2 °C and abundant precipitation (1352 mm y-1). The multi-year observations and chronic manipulations were conducted from 1993 through 2005 using understory throughfall collection troughs and redistribution gutters and pipes. Acute manipulations of dominant canopy trees (Quercus prinus; Liriodendron tulipifera) were conducted from 2003 through 2005 using full understory tents. Regional and severe late-summer droughts were produced reduced stand water use and photosynthetic carbon gain as expected. Likewise, seedlings and saplings exhibited reduced survival and cumulative growth reductions. Conversely, multi-year chronic increases or decreases in precipitation and associated soil water deficits did not reduce large tree basal area growth for the tree species present. The resilience of canopy trees to chronic-change was the result of a disconnect between carbon allocation to tree growth (an early-season phenomenon) and late-season drought occurrence. Acute precipitation exclusion from the largest canopy trees also produced limited physiological responses and minimal cumulative growth reductions. Lateral root water sources were removed through trenching and could not explain the lack of response to extreme soil drying. Therefore, deep rooting the primary mechanism for large-tree resilience to severe drought. Extensive trench-based assessments of rooting depth suggested that ‘deep' water supplies were being obtained from limited numbers of deep fine roots. Observations of carbon stocks in organic horizons demonstrated accumulation with precipitation reductions and

  20. Daytime Low Stratiform Cloud Detection on AVHRR Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Pawel Musial

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The near-real time retrieval of low stratiform cloud (LSC coverage is of vital interest for such disciplines as meteorology, transport safety, economy and air quality. Within this scope, a novel methodology is proposed which provides the LSC occurrence probability estimates for a satellite scene. The algorithm is suited for the 1 × 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR data and was trained and validated against collocated SYNOP observations. Utilisation of these two combined data sources requires a formulation of constraints in order to discriminate cases where the LSC is overlaid by higher clouds. The LSC classification process is based on six features which are first converted to the integer form by step functions and combined by means of bitwise operations. Consequently, a set of values reflecting a unique combination of those features is derived which is further employed to extract the LSC occurrence probability estimates from the precomputed look-up vectors (LUV. Although the validation analyses confirmed good performance of the algorithm, some inevitable misclassification with other optically thick clouds were reported. Moreover, the comparison against Polar Platform System (PPS cloud-type product revealed superior classification accuracy. From the temporal perspective, the acquired results reported a presence of diurnal and annual LSC probability cycles over Europe.

  1. Precipitation Interpolation by Multivariate Bayesian Maximum Entropy Based on Meteorological Data in Yun- Gui-Guang region, Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chaolin; Zhong, Shaobo; Zhang, Fushen; Huang, Quanyi

    2016-11-01

    Precipitation interpolation has been a hot area of research for many years. It had close relation to meteorological factors. In this paper, precipitation from 91 meteorological stations located in and around Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang provinces (or autonomous region), Mainland China was taken into consideration for spatial interpolation. Multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method with auxiliary variables, including mean relative humidity, water vapour pressure, mean temperature, mean wind speed and terrain elevation, was used to get more accurate regional distribution of annual precipitation. The means, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of meteorological factors were calculated. Variogram and cross- variogram were fitted between precipitation and auxiliary variables. The results showed that the multivariate BME method was precise with hard and soft data, probability density function. Annual mean precipitation was positively correlated with mean relative humidity, mean water vapour pressure, mean temperature and mean wind speed, negatively correlated with terrain elevation. The results are supposed to provide substantial reference for research of drought and waterlog in the region.

  2. Region-specific sensitivity of anemophilous pollen deposition to temperature and precipitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timme H Donders

    Full Text Available Understanding relations between climate and pollen production is important for several societal and ecological challenges, importantly pollen forecasting for pollinosis treatment, forensic studies, global change biology, and high-resolution palaeoecological studies of past vegetation and climate fluctuations. For these purposes, we investigate the role of climate variables on annual-scale variations in pollen influx, test the regional consistency of observed patterns, and evaluate the potential to reconstruct high-frequency signals from sediment archives. A 43-year pollen-trap record from the Netherlands is used to investigate relations between annual pollen influx, climate variables (monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation values, and the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index. Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that specifically in Alnus, Betula, Corylus, Fraxinus, Quercus and Plantago both temperature in the year prior to (T-1, as well as in the growing season (T, are highly significant factors (TApril rs between 0.30 [P<0.05[ and 0.58 [P<0.0001]; TJuli-1 rs between 0.32 [P<0.05[ and 0.56 [P<0.0001] in the annual pollen influx of wind-pollinated plants. Total annual pollen prediction models based on multiple climate variables yield R2 between 0.38 and 0.62 (P<0.0001. The effect of precipitation is minimal. A second trapping station in the SE Netherlands, shows consistent trends and annual variability, suggesting the climate factors are regionally relevant. Summer temperature is thought to influence the formation of reproductive structures, while temperature during the flowering season influences pollen release. This study provides a first predictive model for seasonal pollen forecasting, and also aides forensic studies. Furthermore, variations in pollen accumulation rates from a sub-fossil peat deposit are comparable with the pollen trap data. This suggests that high frequency variability pollen records from natural

  3. Model Consistent Pseudo-Observations of Precipitation and Their Use for Bias Correcting Regional Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Berg

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lack of suitable observational data makes bias correction of high space and time resolution regional climate models (RCM problematic. We present a method to construct pseudo-observational precipitation data bymerging a large scale constrained RCMreanalysis downscaling simulation with coarse time and space resolution observations. The large scale constraint synchronizes the inner domain solution to the driving reanalysis model, such that the simulated weather is similar to observations on a monthly time scale. Monthly biases for each single month are corrected to the corresponding month of the observational data, and applied to the finer temporal resolution of the RCM. A low-pass filter is applied to the correction factors to retain the small spatial scale information of the RCM. The method is applied to a 12.5 km RCM simulation and proven successful in producing a reliable pseudo-observational data set. Furthermore, the constructed data set is applied as reference in a quantile mapping bias correction, and is proven skillful in retaining small scale information of the RCM, while still correcting the large scale spatial bias. The proposed method allows bias correction of high resolution model simulations without changing the fine scale spatial features, i.e., retaining the very information required by many impact models.

  4. Characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Vosges Mountains region (north-eastern France)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Minářová, Jana; Müller, Miloslav; Clappier, A.; Kašpar, Marek

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 13 (2017), s. 4529-4542 ISSN 0899-8418 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Vosges Mountains * extreme precipitation * heavy rainfall * WEI * synoptic conditions * precipitation * Grosswetterlagen * trend analysis Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5102/abstract

  5. Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.

    2009-04-01

    Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.

  6. Precipitation regions on the Earth of high energy electrons, injected by a point source moving along a circular Earth orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolesnikov, E. K.; Klyushnikov, G. N.

    2018-05-01

    In the paper we continue the study of precipitation regions of high-energy charged particles, carried out by the authors since 2002. In contrast to previous papers, where a stationary source of electrons was considered, it is assumed that the source moves along a low circular near-earth orbit with a constant velocity. The orbit position is set by the inclination angle of the orbital plane to the equatorial plane and the longitude of the ascending node. The total number of injected electrons is determined by the source strength and the number of complete revolutions that the source makes along the circumference. Construction of precipitation regions is produced using the computational algorithm based on solving of the system of ordinary differential equations. The features of the precipitation regions structure for the dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field and the symmetrical arrangement of the orbit relative to the equator are noted. The dependencies of the precipitation regions on different orbital parametres such as the incline angle, the ascending node position and kinetic energy of injected particles have been considered.

  7. Observed changes in surface air temperature and precipitation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region over the last 100-plus years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Yu Ren

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyzed the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH region based on climate datasets LSAT-V1.1 and CGP1.0 recently developed by the China Meteorological Administration. The analysis results show that during 1901–2014 the annual mean surface air temperature over the whole HKH has undergone a significant increasing trend. We determined the change rates in the mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature to be 0.104 °C per decade, 0.077 °C per decade, and 0.176 °C per decade, respectively. Most parts of the HKH have experienced a warming trend, with the largest increase occurring on the Tibetan Plateau (TP and south of Pakistan. The trend of precipitation for the whole HKH is characterized by a slight decrease during 1901–2014. During 1961–2013, however, the trend of the annual precipitation shows a statistically significant increase, with a rate of 5.28% per decade and has a more rapid increase since the mid-1980s. Most parts of northern India and the northern TP have experienced a strong increase in the number of precipitation days (daily rainfall ≥1 mm, whereas Southwest China and Myanmar have experienced a declining trend in precipitation days. Compared to the trends in precipitation days, the spatial pattern of trends in the precipitation intensity seems to be more closely related to the terrain, and the higher altitude areas have shown more significant upward trends in precipitation intensity during 1961–2013.

  8. A CloudSat-CALIPSO View of Cloud and Precipitation Properties Across Cold Fronts over the Global Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

    2015-01-01

    The distribution of cloud and precipitation properties across oceanic extratropical cyclone cold fronts is examined using four years of combined CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar retrievals. The global annual mean cloud and precipitation distributions show that low-level clouds are ubiquitous in the post frontal zone while higher-level cloud frequency and precipitation peak in the warm sector along the surface front. Increases in temperature and moisture within the cold front region are associated with larger high-level but lower mid-/low level cloud frequencies and precipitation decreases in the cold sector. This behavior seems to be related to a shift from stratiform to convective clouds and precipitation. Stronger ascent in the warm conveyor belt tends to enhance cloudiness and precipitation across the cold front. A strong temperature contrast between the warm and cold sectors also encourages greater post-cold-frontal cloud occurrence. While the seasonal contrasts in environmental temperature, moisture, and ascent strength are enough to explain most of the variations in cloud and precipitation across cold fronts in both hemispheres, they do not fully explain the differences between Northern and Southern Hemisphere cold fronts. These differences are better explained when the impact of the contrast in temperature across the cold front is also considered. In addition, these large-scale parameters do not explain the relatively large frequency in springtime post frontal precipitation.

  9. Statistical properties of the ice particle distribution in stratiform clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delanoe, J.; Tinel, C.; Testud, J.

    2003-04-01

    This paper presents an extensive analysis of several microphysical data bases CEPEX, EUCREX, CLARE and CARL to determine statistical properties of the Particle Size Distribution (PSD). The data base covers different type of stratiform clouds : tropical cirrus (CEPEX), mid-latitude cirrus (EUCREX) and mid-latitude cirrus and stratus (CARL,CLARE) The approach for analysis uses the concept of normalisation of the PSD developed by Testud et al. (2001). The normalization aims at isolating three independent characteristics of the PSD : its "intrinsic" shape, the "average size" of the spectrum and the ice water content IWC, "average size" is meant the mean mass weighted diameter. It is shown that concentration should be normalized by N_0^* proportional to IWC/D_m^4. The "intrinsic" shape is defined as F(Deq/D_m)=N(Deq)/N_0^* where Deq is the equivalent melted diameter. The "intrinsic" shape is found to be very stable in the range 001.5, more scatter is observed, but future analysis should decide if it is representative of real physical variation or statistical "error" due to counting problem. Considering an overall statistics over the full data base, a large scatter of the N_0^* against Dm plot is found. But in the case of a particular event or a particular leg of a flight, the N_0^* vs. Dm plot is much less scattered and shows a systematic trend for decaying of N_0^* when Dm increases. This trend is interpreted as the manifestation of the predominance of the aggregation process. Finally an important point for cloud remote sensing is investigated : the normalised relationships IWC/N_0^* against Z/N_0^* is much less scattered that the classical IWC against Z the radar reflectivity factor.

  10. Diurnal variations of summertime precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in relation to orographically-induced regional circulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xiaodong; Bai Aijuan; Liu Changhai

    2009-01-01

    The diurnal patterns of variation of summertime precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau were first investigated using the TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis product for five summer seasons (i.e. June to August for 2002-2006). Both hourly precipitation amount and precipitation frequency exhibit pronounced daily variability with an overall late-afternoon-evening maximum and a dominant morning minimum. A notable exception is the prevalent nocturnal maximum around the periphery of the Plateau. In terms of the normalized harmonic amplitude, the diurnal signal shows significant regional contrast with the strongest manifestation over the central Plateau and the weakest near the periphery. This remarkable spatial dependence in daily rainfall cycles is clear evidence of orographic and heterogeneous land-surface impacts on convective development. Using six-hourly NCEP FNL data, we then examined the diurnal variability in the atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics in this region. The results show that the Plateau heats (cools) the overlying atmosphere during the day (night) more than the surrounding areas, and as a consequence a relatively stronger confluent circulation in this region occurs during the day than during the night, consistent with the diurnal rainfall cycles. Moreover, the regions with large low-level convergence and upper-level divergence correspond to the strong diurnal rainfall variations. The reversed daily alterations of convergence-divergence patterns in the vicinity of the Plateau edges are in agreement with the observed nighttime rainfall peak therein. This study further demonstrates the importance of the Tibetan Plateau in regulating regional circulation and precipitation.

  11. Correlation and SVD Analysis of Anomalous Spring Precipitation in Northwest China and Sea Surface Temperature in Key Region in Recent 50 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Key region in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on monthly average precipitation in Northwest China and global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) grid data, the effects of SSTA in equatorial central and eastern Pacific on spring precipitation in Northwest China were discussed by means of correlation and SVD analysis. [Result] For spring precipitation in Nor...

  12. Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Arthur Y.

    2011-01-01

    A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and

  13. Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation

  14. A dynamical characterization of the uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change in the semi-arid tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.

    2016-12-01

    The uncertainty in CMIP multi-model ensembles of regional precipitation change in tropical regions is well known: taken at face value, models do not agree on the direction of precipitation change. Consequently, in adaptation discourse, either projections are discounted, e.g., by giving more relevance to temperature projections, or outcomes are grossly misrepresented, e.g., in extrapolating recent drought into the long-term future. That this is an unsatisfactory state of affairs, given the dominant role of precipitation in shaping climate-sensitive human endeavors in the tropics, is an understatement.Here I will provide a dynamical characterization of the uncertainty in regional precipitation projections that exploits the CMIP multi-model ensembles. This characterization is based on decomposing the moisture budget and relating its terms to the influence of the oceans, specifically to the roles of moisture supply and stabilization of the vertical profile. I will discuss some preliminary findings highlighting the relevance of lessons learned from seasonal-to-interannual prediction. One such lesson is to go beyond the projection taken at face value, and understand physical processes, specifically, the role of the oceans, in order to be able to make qualitative arguments, in addition to quantitative predictions. One other lesson is to abandon the search for the "best model" and exploit the multi-model ensemble to characterize "emergent constraints".

  15. Evaluating precipitation in a regional climate model using ground-based radar measurements in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorodetskaya, Irina; Maahn, Maximilan; Gallée, Hubert; Souverijns, Niels; Gossart, Alexandra; Kneifel, Stefan; Crewell, Susanne; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2017-04-01

    Occasional very intense snowfall events over Dronning Maud Land (DML) region in East Antarctica, contributed significantly to the entire Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) during the last years. The meteorological-cloud-precipitation observatory running at the Princess Elisabeth station (PE) in the DML escarpment zone since 2009 (HYDRANT/AEROCLOUD projects), provides unique opportunity to estimate contribution of precipitation to the local snow accumulation and new data for evaluating precipitation in climate models. Our previous work using PE measurements showed that occasional intense precipitation events determine the total local yearly SMB and account for its large interannual variability. Here we use radar measurements to evaluate precipitation in a regional climate model with a special focus on intense precipitation events together with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics responsible for these events. The coupled snow-atmosphere regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) is used to simulate climate and SMB in DML at 5-km horizontal resolution during 2012 using initial and boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim re-analysis atmospheric and oceanic fields. Two evaluation approaches are used: observations-to-model and model-to-observations. In the first approach, snowfall rate (S) is derived from the MRR (vertically profiling 24-GHz precipitation radar) effective reflectivity factor (Ze) at 400 m agl using various Ze-S relationships for dry snow. The uncertainty in Ze-S relationships is constrained using snow particle size distribution from Snow Video Imager - Precipitation Imaging Package (SVI/PIP) and information about particle shapes. For the second approach we apply the Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer model (PAMTRA), which allows direct comparison of the radar-measured and climate model-based vertical profiles of the radar Ze and Doppler velocity. In MAR

  16. Distribution, regional sources and deposition fluxes of organochlorine pesticides in precipitation in Guangzhou, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, De-Yin; Peng, Ping'an; Xu, Yi-Gang; Sun, Cui-Xiang; Deng, Hong-Mei; Deng, Yun-Yun

    2010-07-01

    We analyzed rainwater collected from multiple sites, Guangzhou, China, from March to August 2005, with the aim to characterize the distribution, regional sources and deposition fluxes of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in South China. Eight species of organochlorine pesticide were detected, including hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), and endosulfans. Volume-weighted mean monthly total concentrations varied from 3.65 ± 0.95 to 9.37 ± 2.63 ng L - 1 , and the estimated total wet deposition flux was about 11.43 ± 3.27 µg m - 2 during the monitoring period. Pesticides were mainly detected in the dissolved phase. Distribution coefficients between particulate and dissolved phases in March and April were generally higher than in other months. HCHs, p,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDT in precipitation were attributed to both the residues and present usage of insecticides in Pearl River Delta. The concentrations of p,p'-DDD + p,p'-DDT were relatively high from April to August, which were related to the usage of antifouling paints containing DDT for fishing ships in seaports of the South China Sea in summer. In contrast, endosulfans were relatively high in March, which was related to their seasonal atmospheric transport from cotton fields in eastern China by the Asian winter monsoon. The consistency of the variation of endosulfans, p,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDT concentrations with the alternation of summer and winter monsoon suggested that the Asian monsoon played an important role in the long-range transport of OCPs. In addition, the wet deposition of OCPs may influence not only Pearl River water but also the surface land distributions of pesticides in the Guangzhou area, especially for endosulfans, p,p'-DDD and p,p'-DDT.

  17. Effects of microphysics parameterization on simulations of summer heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe Region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Yu; Chen, Bo; Shen, Tao; Liu, Chaoshun; Qiao, Fengxue

    2017-09-01

    It has been a longstanding problem for current weather/climate models to accurately predict summer heavy precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe Region (YHR) which is the key flood-prone area in China with intensive population and developed economy. Large uncertainty has been identified with model deficiencies in representing precipitation processes such as microphysics and cumulus parameterizations. This study focuses on examining the effects of microphysics parameterization on the simulation of different type of heavy precipitation over the YHR taking into account two different cumulus schemes. All regional persistent heavy precipitation events over the YHR during 2008-2012 are classified into three types according to their weather patterns: the type I associated with stationary front, the type II directly associated with typhoon or with its spiral rain band, and the type III associated with strong convection along the edge of the Subtropical High. Sixteen groups of experiments are conducted for three selected cases with different types and a local short-time rainstorm in Shanghai, using the WRF model with eight microphysics and two cumulus schemes. Results show that microphysics parameterization has large but different impacts on the location and intensity of regional heavy precipitation centers. The Ferrier (microphysics) -BMJ (cumulus) scheme and Thompson (microphysics) - KF (cumulus) scheme most realistically simulates the rain-bands with the center location and intensity for type I and II respectively. For type III, the Lin microphysics scheme shows advantages in regional persistent cases over YHR, while the WSM5 microphysics scheme is better in local short-term case, both with the BMJ cumulus scheme.

  18. REAL - Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region

    OpenAIRE

    Germann, Urs; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2009-01-01

    An elegant solution to characterise the residual errors in radar precipitation estimates is to generate an ensemble of precipitation fields. The paper proposes a radar ensemble generator designed for usage in the Alps using LU decomposition (REAL), and presents first results from a real-time implementation coupling the radar ensemble with a semi-distributed rainfall–runoff model for flash flood modelling in a steep Alpine catchment. Each member of the radar ensemble is a possible realisati...

  19. Cross-Regional Assessment Of Coupling And Variability In Precipitation-Runoff Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, S. K.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Buttle, J. M.; Laudon, H.; McDonnell, J. J.; McGuire, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Shanley, J. B.

    2011-12-01

    The higher mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the zero-degree isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international inter-catchment comparison program North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). For this study, 8 catchments with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess the seasonal coupling of rainfall and runoff and the memory effect of runoff events on the hydrograph at different time scales. To assess the coupling and synchroneity of precipitation, continuous wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence were used. Wavelet spectra identified the relative importance of both annual versus seasonal flows while wavelet coherence was applied to identify over different time scales along the 10-year window how well precipitation and runoff were coupled. For example, while on a given day, precipitation may be closely coupled to runoff, a wet year may not necessarily be a high runoff year in catchments with large storage. Assessing different averaging periods in the variation of daily flows highlights the importance of seasonality in runoff response and the relative influence of rain versus snowmelt on flow magnitude and variability. Wet catchments with limited seasonal precipitation variability (Strontian, Girnock) have precipitation signals more closely coupled with runoff, whereas dryer catchments dominated by snow (Wolf Creek, Krycklan) have strongly coupling only during freshet. Most catchments with highly seasonal precipitation show strong intermittent coupling during their wet season. At

  20. RAINFALL CHARACTERIZATION AND SEDIMENTOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF WATERSHEDS WITH DIFFERENT LAND USES TO PRECIPITATION IN THE SEMIARID REGION OF BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JACQUES CARVALHO RIBEIRO FILHO

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluated the precipitation characteristics (depth, I30 and erosivity and their effects on sediment production in three watersheds under different managements of land use 35 - year regenerating Caatinga (RC, thinned Caatinga (TC, which underwent thinning of trees with diameter smaller than 10 cm; and deforested Caatinga (followed by burning and pasture (DC. The experimente was conducted in the central, tropical semiarid region of the State of Ceará, Brazil. The precipitation events, surface runoff and sediment production were monitored from 2010 to 2015. The precipitation characteristics were subjected to Pearson's correlation at 1 and 5% of significance and the events that produced sediments in each watershed were hierarchically grouped by hierarchical cluster analysis technique. Two hundred precipitation events were recorded, with 23 (RC, 18 (TC and 43 (DC events producing sediments. The use of thinning (TC decreased the sediment production by 53.5%, while the deforestation, burn and pasture cultivation (DC increased soil losses by 14%, compared with the RC. The sediment production was greatly correlated with the I30 in the three watersheds, denoting the erosion process great dependence on the precipitation intensity.

  1. Validation of precipitation over Japan during 1985-2004 simulated by three regional climate models and two multi-model ensemble means

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishizaki, Yasuhiro [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Takayabu, Izuru [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

    2012-07-15

    We dynamically downscaled Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-25) for 60 regions of Japan using three regional climate models (RCMs): the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), modified RAMS version 4.3 (NRAMS), and modified Weather Research and Forecasting model (TWRF). We validated their simulations of the precipitation climatology and interannual variations of summer and winter precipitation. We also validated precipitation for two multi-model ensemble means: the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and an ensemble mean weighted according to model reliability. In the 60 regions NRAMS simulated both the winter and summer climatological precipitation better than JRA-25, and NHRCM simulated the wintertime precipitation better than JRA-25. TWRF, however, overestimated precipitation in the 60 regions in both the winter and summer, and NHRCM overestimated precipitation in the summer. The three RCMs simulated interannual variations, particularly summer precipitation, better than JRA-25. AEM simulated both climatological precipitation and interannual variations during the two seasons more realistically than JRA-25 and the three RCMs overall, but the best RCM was often superior to the AEM result. In contrast, the weighted ensemble mean skills were usually superior to those of the best RCM. Thus, both RCMs and multi-model ensemble means, especially multi-model ensemble means weighted according to model reliability, are powerful tools for simulating seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Japan under the current climate. (orig.)

  2. Orographic precipitation at global and regional scales: Observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2015-04-01

    Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean

  3. Evolution in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Northeast Region and Brazilian Amazon in XXI Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, P. M.; Veiga, J. A.; Correia, F. S.; Brito, A. L.

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this research was evaluate changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in Brazilian Amazon and Northeast Region, doubling CO2 concentration in agreement of IPCC A2 emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2001). For this evaluation was used ETA model (Chou et al., 2011), forced with CCSM3 Global model data (Meehl, 2006) to run 4 experiments, only for January, February and March: 1980-1990, 2000-2010, 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. Using the first decade as reference (1980-1990), was evaluated changes occurred in following decades, with a methodology to classify extremes events adapted from Frich (2002) and Gao (2006). Higher was the class, more intense is the event. An increase of 25% was observed in total precipitation in Brazilian Amazon for the end of XXI century and 12% for extreme events type 1, 9% for events type 2 and 10% for type 3. By the other hand, a 17% decrease of precipitation in Brazilian Northeast was observed, and a pronounced decay of 24% and 15% in extreme events contribution type 1 and 2 to total amount of precipitation, respectively. The difference between total normal type events was positive in this three decades compared with reference decade 1980-1990, varying positively from 4 to 6 thousand events included in normality by decade, these events was decreased in your majority of Class 1 events, which presented a decay of at least 3.500 events by each decade. This suggests an intensification of extreme events, considering that the amount of precipitation by class increased, and the number of events by class decreased. To Northeast region, an increasing in 9% of contribution to events type 3 class was observed, as well as in the frequency of this type of events (about of 700 more events). Major decreasing in number of classes extreme events occur in 2000-2010, to classes 1 and 3, with 7,2 and 5,6%, and by the end of century in class 3, with 4,5%. For the three analyzed decades a total decrease of 8.400 events was

  4. Spatiotemporal Variability and Covariability of Temperature, Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation in North America for Regional Climate Model Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, C. L.; Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.

    2007-05-01

    Previous work has established that the dominant modes of Pacific SSTs influence the summer climate of North America through large-scale forcing, and this effect is most pronounced during the early part of the season. It is hypothesized, then, that land surface influences become more dominant in the latter part of the season as remote teleconnection influences diminish. As a first step toward investigation of this hypothesis in a regional climate model (RCM) framework, the statistically signficant spatiotemporal patterns of variability and covariability in North American precipitation (specified by the standardized precipitation index, or SPI), soil moisture, and vegetation are determined for timescales from a month to six months. To specify these respective data we use: CPC gauge- derived precipitation (1950-2000), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model and NOAH Model NLDAS soil moisture and temperature, and the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-NDVI). The principal statistical tool used is multiple taper frequency singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD), and this is supplemented by wavelet analysis for specific areas of interest. The significant interannual variability in all of these data occur at a timescale of about 7 to 9 years and appears to be the integrated effect of remote SST forcing from the Pacific. Considering the entire year, the spatial pattern for precipitation resembles the typical ENSO winter signature. If the summer season is considered seperately, the out of phase relationship between precipitation anomalies in the central U.S. and core monsoon region is apparent. The largest soil moisture anomalies occur in the central U.S., since precipitation in this region has a consistent relationship to Pacific SSTs for the entire year. This helps to explain the approximately 20 year periodicity in drought conditions there. Unlike soil moisture, the largest anomalies in vegetation occur in the

  5. Bias correction of daily precipitation projected by the CORDEX-Africa ensemble for a sparsely gauged region in West Africa with regionalized distribution parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Manuel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    Reliable estimates of future climatic conditions are indispensable for the sustainable planning of agricultural activities in West Africa. Precipitation time series of regional climate models (RCMs) typically exhibit a bias in the distribution of both rainfall intensities and wet day frequencies. Furthermore, the annual and monthly sums of precipitation may remarkably vary from the observations in this region. As West Africa experiences a distinct rainy season, sowing dates are oftentimes planned based on the beginning of this rainfall period. A biased representation of the annual cycle of precipitation in the uncorrected RCMs can therefore lead to crop failure. The precipitation ensemble, obtained from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment CORDEX-Africa, was bias-corrected for the study region in West Africa (extending approximately 343,358 km2) which covers large parts of Burkina Faso, Ghana and Benin. In oder to debias the RCM precipitation simulations, a Quantile-Mapping method was applied to the historical period 1950-2005. For the RCM future projections (2006-2100), the Double-Quantile-Mapping procedure was chosen. This method makes use of the shift in the distribution function of the future precipitation values which allows to incorporate the climate change signal of the RCM projections into the bias correction. As large areas of the study region are ungauged, the assignment of the information from the nearest station to the ungauged location would lead to sharp changes in the estimated statistics from one location to another. Thus, the distribution parameters needed for the Quantile-Mapping were estimated by Kriging the distribution parameters of the available measurement stations. This way it is possible to obtain reasonable estimates of the expected distribution of precipitation at ungauged locations. The presentation will illustrate some aspects and trade-offs in the distribution parameter interpolation as well as an analysis of the uncertainties of the

  6. Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variations in the upper Hanjiang River region, China over the past 6650 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Gao, Yongli; Xu, Hai; Zhang, Haiwei; An, Zhisheng

    2018-01-01

    The upper Hanjiang River region is the recharge area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The region is under construction of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Water Transfer Project in China. Monsoon precipitation variations in this region are critical to water resource and security of China. In this study, high-resolution monsoon precipitation variations were reconstructed in the upper Hanjiang River region over the past 6650 years from δ18O and δ13C records of four stalagmites in Xianglong cave. The long term increasing trend of stalagmite δ18O record since the middle Holocene is consistent with other speleothem records from monsoonal China. This trend follows the gradually decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which indicates that solar insolation may control the orbital-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variations. Despite the declined EASM intensity since the middle Holocene, local precipitation may not have decreased remarkably, as revealed by the δ13C records. A series of centennial- to decadal-scale cyclicity was observed, with quasi-millennium-, quasi-century-, 57-, 36- and 22-year cycles by removing the long-term trend of stalagmite δ18O record. Increased monsoon precipitation during periods of 4390-3800 a BP, 3590-2960 a BP, 2050-1670 a BP and 1110-790 a BP had caused four super-floods in the upper reach of Hanjiang River. Dramatically dry climate existed in this region during the 5.0 ka and 2.8 ka events, coinciding with notable droughts in other regions of monsoonal China. Remarkably intensified and southward Westerly jet, together with weakened summer monsoon, may delay the onset of rainy seasons, resulting in synchronous decreasing of monsoon precipitation in China during the two events. During the 4.2 ka event and the Little Ice Age, the upper Hanjiang River region was wet, which was similar to the climate conditions in central and southern China, but was the opposite of drought observed in northern China. We

  7. Simulation of Relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over Western Himalayas: Application of Regional climate model (RegT-Band)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, P. R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Acharaya, N.; Sinha, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation over the Western Himalayas region during winter is mainly associated with the passage of midlatitude synoptic systems known as western disturbances (WDs). Recently, many observational and modeling studies reported that the relationship of the Indian southwest monsoon rainfall with El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened since around 1980. But, in contrast, only very few observational studies are reported so far to examine the relationship between ENSO and the winter precipitation over the Western Himalayas region from December to February (DJF). But there is a huge gap of modeling this phenomenon. So keeping in view of the absence of modeling studies, an attempt is made to simulate the relationship between wintertime precipitations associated with large scale global forcing of ENSO over the Western Himalayas. In the present study, RegT-Band, a tropical band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 is integrated for a set of 5 El Niño (1986-87, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2009-10) and 4 La Niña (1984-85, 1988-89, 1999-2000, 2007-08) years with the observed sea-surface temperature and lateral boundary condition. The domain extends from 50° S to 50° N and covers the entire tropics at a grid spacing of about 45 km, i.e. it includes lateral boundary forcing only at the southern and northern boundaries. The performance evaluation of the model in capturing the large scale fields followed by ENSO response with wintertime precipitation over the Western Himalayas region has been carried out by using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) data (2.5° x 2.5°) and Aphrodite precipitation data (0.25° x 0.25°). The model is able to delineate the mean circulation associated with ENSO over the region during DJF reasonably well and shows strong southwesterly to northwesterly wind flow, which is there in verification analysis also. The vertical structure of the low as well as upper level

  8. DEGREE OF ACIDIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION IN BIELSKO-BIAŁA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henryk Kasza

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the paper results of long-term studies on acidification of water precipitation conducted in seven research points located near Bielsko-Biała were introduced. In each point period of study lasted ca. 1 year. The research was performed in the years 2002-2010. The range of pH of precipitation varied between 3.35 to 7.22. Majority of precipitation samples, because approximately 86% had pH < 5.6 i.e. lower than natural level, which indicated the presence of acidifying substances. Amongst samples of precipitation 47.6% were significantly and strongly acidic i.e. pH < 4.5. The rainwater with pH < 5.6 was more frequent than in more industrialized part of Silesian voivodship. In the investigated area pH of precipitation is mainly under influence of pollution flowing from west and southern-west and local sources of its emission.

  9. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations. Part 2 ; Precipitation Microphysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varble, Adam; Zipser, Edward J.; Fridland, Ann M.; Zhu, Ping; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Williams, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Ten 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3-D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observations and retrievals from a scanning polarimetric radar, colocated UHF and VHF vertical profilers, and a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in an attempt to explain a low bias in simulated stratiform rainfall. Despite different forcing methodologies, similar precipitation microphysics errors appear in CRMs and LAMs with differences that depend on the details of the bulk microphysics scheme used. One-moment schemes produce too many small raindrops, which biases Doppler velocities low, but produces rainwater contents (RWCs) that are similar to observed. Two-moment rain schemes with a gamma shape parameter (mu) of 0 produce excessive size sorting, which leads to larger Doppler velocities than those produced in one-moment schemes but lower RWCs. Two-moment schemes also produce a convective median volume diameter distribution that is too broad relative to observations and, thus, may have issues balancing raindrop formation, collision-coalescence, and raindrop breakup. Assuming a mu of 2.5 rather than 0 for the raindrop size distribution improves one-moment scheme biases, and allowing mu to have values greater than 0 may improve excessive size sorting in two-moment schemes. Underpredicted stratiform rain rates are associated with underpredicted ice water contents at the melting level rather than excessive rain evaporation, in turn likely associated with convective detrainment that is too high in the troposphere and mesoscale circulations that are too weak. A limited domain size also prevents a large, well-developed stratiform region like the one observed from developing in CRMs, although LAMs also fail to produce such a region.

  10. Structure of the auroral precipitation region in the dawn sector: relationship to convection reversal boundaries and field-aligned currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Feldstein

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Simultaneous DMSP F7 and Viking satellite measurements of the dawnside high-latitude auroral energy electron and ion precipitation show that the region of the low and middle altitude auroral precipitation consists of three characteristic plasma regimes. The recommendation of the IAGA Working Group IIF/III4 at the IAGA Assembly in Boulder, July 1995 to decouple the nomenclature of ionospheric populations from magnetospheric population is used for their notation. The most equatorial regime is the Diffuse Auroral Zone (DAZ of diffuse spatially unstructured precipitating electrons. It is generated by the plasma injection to the inner magnetosphere in the nightside and the subsequent drift plasma to the dawnside around the Earth. Precipitating particles have a hard spectrum with typical energies of electrons and ions of more than 3 keV. In the DAZ, the ion pitch-angle distribution is anisotropic, with the peak near 90°. The next part is the Auroral Oval (AO, a structured electron regime which closely resembles the poleward portion of the night-side auroral oval. The typical electron energy is several keV, and the ion energy is up to 10 keV. Ion distributions are pre-dominantly isotropic. In some cases, this plasma regime may be absent in the pre-noon sector. Poleward of the Auroral Oval, there is the Soft Small Scale Luminosity (SSSL regime. It is caused by structured electron and ion precipitation with typical electron energy of about 0.3 keV and ion energy of about 1 keV. The connection of these low-altitude regimes with plasma domains of the distant magnetosphere is discussed. For mapping of the plasma regimes to the equatorial plane of the magnetosphere, the empirical model by Tsyganenko (1995 and the conceptual model by Alexeev et al. (1996 are used. The DAZ is mapped along the magnetic field lines to the Remnant Layer (RL, which is located in the outer radiation belt region; the zone of structured electrons and isotropic ion

  11. Structure of the auroral precipitation region in the dawn sector: relationship to convection reversal boundaries and field-aligned currents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Feldstein

    Full Text Available

    Abstract. Simultaneous DMSP F7 and Viking satellite measurements of the dawnside high-latitude auroral energy electron and ion precipitation show that the region of the low and middle altitude auroral precipitation consists of three characteristic plasma regimes. The recommendation of the IAGA Working Group IIF/III4 at the IAGA Assembly in Boulder, July 1995 to decouple the nomenclature of ionospheric populations from magnetospheric population is used for their notation. The most equatorial regime is the Diffuse Auroral Zone (DAZ of diffuse spatially unstructured precipitating electrons. It is generated by the plasma injection to the inner magnetosphere in the nightside and the subsequent drift plasma to the dawnside around the Earth. Precipitating particles have a hard spectrum with typical energies of electrons and ions of more than 3 keV. In the DAZ, the ion pitch-angle distribution is anisotropic, with the peak near 90°. The next part is the Auroral Oval (AO, a structured electron regime which closely resembles the poleward portion of the night-side auroral oval. The typical electron energy is several keV, and the ion energy is up to 10 keV. Ion distributions are pre-dominantly isotropic. In some cases, this plasma regime may be absent in the pre-noon sector. Poleward of the Auroral Oval, there is the Soft Small Scale Luminosity (SSSL regime. It is caused by structured electron and ion precipitation with typical electron energy of about 0.3 keV and ion energy of about 1 keV. The connection of these low-altitude regimes with plasma domains of the distant magnetosphere is discussed. For mapping of the plasma regimes to the equatorial plane of the magnetosphere, the empirical model by Tsyganenko (1995 and the conceptual model by Alexeev et al. (1996 are used. The DAZ is mapped along the magnetic field lines to the Remnant Layer (RL, which is located in the outer radiation belt region; the zone of structured

  12. Future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan by d4PDF regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Endo, H.; Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Takayabu, I.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Kawazoe, S.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation in summer plays a vital role in sustaining life across East Asia, but the heavy rain that is often generated during this period can also cause serious damage. Developing a better understanding of the features and occurrence frequency of this heavy rain is an important element of disaster prevention. We investigated future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan using large ensemble dataset which simulated by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with a horizontal resolution of 20km (NHRCM20). This dataset called database for Policy Decision making for Future climate changes (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for the impact assessment studies and adaptation planning to global warming. The future climate experiments assume the global mean surface air temperature rise 2K and 4K from the pre-industrial period. We investigated using this dataset future changes of precipitation in summer over the Japanese archipelago based on observational locations. For mean precipitation in the present-day climate, the bias of the rainfall for each month is within 25% even considering all members (30 members). The bias at each location is found to increase by over 50% on the Pacific Ocean side of eastern part of Japan and interior locations of western part of Japan. The result in western part of Japan depends on the effect of the elevations in this model. The future changes in mean precipitation show a contrast between northern and southern Japan, with the north showing a slight increase but the south a decrease. The future changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the national average of Japan increase at 2K and 4K simulations compared with the present-day climate, respectively. The authors were supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

  13. Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2014-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

  14. Links between circulation types and precipitation in Central Europe in the observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan; Štěpánek, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 9 (2014), s. 2885-2898 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Grant - others:FP6 ENSEMBLES(XE) 505539 Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : precipitation * atmospheric circulation * regional climate models * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology; DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology (UEK-B) Impact factor: 3.157, year: 2014

  15. Stable water isotopes of precipitation and firn cores from the northern Antarctic Peninsula region as a proxy for climate reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fernandoy

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate the climate variability in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, this paper focuses on the relationship between stable isotope content of precipitation and firn, and main meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent. Between 2008 and 2010, we collected precipitation samples and retrieved firn cores from several key sites in this region. We conclude that the deuterium excess oscillation represents a robust indicator of the meteorological variability on a seasonal to sub-seasonal scale. Low absolute deuterium excess values and the synchronous variation of both deuterium excess and air temperature imply that the evaporation of moisture occurs in the adjacent Southern Ocean. The δ18O-air temperature relationship is complicated and significant only at a (multiseasonal scale. Backward trajectory calculations show that air-parcels arriving at the region during precipitation events predominantly originate at the South Pacific Ocean and Bellingshausen Sea. These investigations will be used as a calibration for ongoing and future research in the area, suggesting that appropriate locations for future ice core research are located above 600 m a.s.l. We selected the Plateau Laclavere, Antarctic Peninsula as the most promising site for a deeper drilling campaign.

  16. Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

    2018-05-01

    Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

  17. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

    2016-01-01

    For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally. PMID:27922014

  18. Chemical and isotopic variations of precipitation in the Los Alamos Region, New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, A.I.; Goff, F.; Counce, D.

    1995-02-01

    Precipitation collectors were installed at 14 locations on the Pajarito Plateau and surrounding areas to study variations in chemistry, stable isotopes and tritium for the years 1990 to 1993. The volume of precipitation was measured and samples were collected and analyzed every three to four months. All precipitation samples contain 18 O) results record seasonal variations in precipitation as the weather patterns shift from sources in the Pacific Ocean to sources in the Gulf of Mexico. The stable isotope results also show isotopic variations due to elevation differences among the collection points. The tritium contents ( 3 H) in rain samples vary from 6.54 T.U. to 141 T.U. Contouring of high tritium values (e.g. >20 T.U.) from each collection period clearly shows that Laboratory activities release some tritium to the atmosphere. The effect of these releases are well below the limits set by the Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water (about 6200 T.U.). The magnitude of the releases is apparently greatest during the summer months. However, anomalous tritium values are detected as far north as Espahola, New Mexico for many collection periods. Tritium releases by the Laboratory are not constant; thus, the actual amount of tritium in each release has been diluted in the composite samples of our three to four month collection periods

  19. On the importance of observational data properties when assessing regional climate model performance of extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing

    2013-01-01

    datasets, the RCMs are ranked according to their performance using two different metrics. These are based on the error in representing the indices and the spatial correlation. In comparison to the mean, extreme precipitation indices are highly dependent on the spatial resolution of the observations...

  20. Downscaling of Short-Term Precipitation from Regional Climate Models for Sustainable Urban Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Hoppe

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A framework for downscaling precipitation from RCM projections to the high resolutions in time and space required in the urban hydrological climate change impact assessment is outlined and demonstrated. The basic approach is that of Delta Change, developed for both continuous and event-based applications. In both cases, Delta Change Factors (DCFs are calculated which represent the expected future change of some key precipitation statistics. In the continuous case, short-term precipitation from climate projections are analysed in order to estimate DCFs associated with different percentiles in the frequency distribution of non-zero intensities. The DCFs may then be applied to an observed time series, producing a realisation of a future time series. The event-based case involves downscaling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves based on extreme value analysis of annual maxima using the Gumbel distribution. The resulting DCFs are expressed as a function of duration and frequency (i.e., return period and may be used to estimate future design storms. The applications are demonstrated in case studies focusing on the expected changes in short-term precipitation statistics until 2100 in the cities of Linz (Austria and Wuppertal (Germany. The downscaling framework is implemented in the climate service developed within the EU-project SUDPLAN.

  1. Signature of Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Regions in India Identified through a Multivariate Frequency Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jitendra; Hari, Vittal; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal

    2016-04-01

    The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which in turn may affect the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon precipitation extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which shows need of nonstationary analysis on the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis has been conducted for the entire India to identify the precipitation characteristics (intensity, duration and depth) responsible for significant nonstationarity in the Indian monsoon. We use 1o resolution of precipitation data for a period of 1901-2004, in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. A cluster of GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationarity in different combinations of distribution parameters through different regression techniques, and the best-fit model is further applied for bivariate analysis. A population density data has been utilized to identify the urban, urbanizing and rural regions. The results showed significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary bivariate return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. A comprehensive multivariate analysis has also been conducted to identify the precipitation characteristics particularly responsible for imprinting signature of nonstationarity.

  2. The sensitivity of tropical convective precipitation to the direct radiative forcings of black carbon aerosols emitted from major regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wang

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Previous works have suggested that the direct radiative forcing (DRF of black carbon (BC aerosols are able to force a significant change in tropical convective precipitation ranging from the Pacific and Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. In this in-depth analysis, the sensitivity of this modeled effect of BC on tropical convective precipitation to the emissions of BC from 5 major regions of the world has been examined. In a zonal mean base, the effect of BC on tropical convective precipitation is a result of a displacement of ITCZ toward the forcing (warming hemisphere. However, a substantial difference exists in this effect associated with BC over different continents. The BC effect on convective precipitation over the tropical Pacific Ocean is found to be most sensitive to the emissions from Central and North America due to a persistent presence of BC aerosols from these two regions in the lowermost troposphere over the Eastern Pacific. The BC effect over the tropical Indian and Atlantic Ocean is most sensitive to the emissions from South as well as East Asia and Africa, respectively. Interestingly, the summation of these individual effects associated with emissions from various regions mostly exceeds their actual combined effect as shown in the model run driven by the global BC emissions, so that they must offset each other in certain locations and a nonlinearity of this type of effect is thus defined. It is known that anthropogenic aerosols contain many scattering-dominant constituents that might exert an effect opposite to that of absorbing BC. The combined aerosol forcing is thus likely differing from the BC-only one. Nevertheless, this study along with others of its kind that isolates the DRF of BC from other forcings provides an insight of the potentially important climate response to anthropogenic forcings particularly related to the unique particulate solar absorption.

  3. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD. Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years. Moreover, the 2–3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

  4. Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

    2016-03-21

    Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960-2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years). Moreover, the 2-3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

  5. GPM SLH: Convective Latent Heating Estimated with GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Y. N.; Hamada, A.; Yokoyama, C.; Ikuta, Y.; Shige, S.; Yamaji, M.; Kubota, T.

    2017-12-01

    Three dimensional diabatic heating distribution plays essential roles to determine large-scale circulation, as well as to generate mesoscale circulation associated with tropical convection (e.g. Hartmann et al., 1984; Houze et al. 1982). For mid-latitude systems also, diabatic heating contributes to generate PVs resulting in, for example, explosive intensifications of mid-lattitude storms (Boettcher and Wernli, 2011). Previously, with TRMM PR data, we developed a Spectral Latent Heating algorithm (SLH; Shige et al. 2004, etc.) for 36N-36S region. It was based on the spectral LH tables produced from a simulation utilizing the Goddard Cloud Ensemble Model forced with the TOGA-COARE data. With GPM DPR, the observation region is extended to 65N-65S. Here, we introduce a new version of SLH algorithm which is applicable also to the mid-latitude precipitation. A new global GPM SLH ver.5 product is released as one of NASA/JAXA GPM standard products on July 11, 2017. For GPM SLH mid-latitude algorithm, we employ the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s high resolution (horizontally 2km) Local Forecast Model (LFM) to construct the LUTs. With collaborations of JMA's forecast group, forecast data for 8 extratropical cyclone cases are collected and utilized. For mid-latitude precipitation, we have to deal with large temperature gradients and complex relationship between the freezing level and cloud base levels. LUTs are constructed for LH, Q1-QR, and Q2 (Yanai et al. 1973), for six different precipitation types: Convective and shallow stratiform LUTs are made against precipitation top heights. For deep stratiform and other precipitation, LUTs are made against maximum precipitation to handle the unknown cloud-bases. Finally, three-dimensional convective latent heating is retrieved, utilizing the LUTs and precipitation profile data from GPM 2AKu. We can confirm that retrieved LH looks very similar to simulated LH, for a consistency check. We also confirm a good continuities of

  6. Potential for added value in precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested Regional Climate Models and observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Luca, Alejandro; Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM), Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, PK-6530, Succ. Centre-ville, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); De Elia, Ramon [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Ouranos Consortium, Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal (Canada)

    2012-03-15

    Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions. (orig.)

  7. Os isotopes and cooper sources for stratiform (mantos) cooper deposits of Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munizaga, Francisco; Ruiz, Joaquin; Freydier, Claire

    1998-01-01

    The sources of copper have been determined by studying trace elements osmium and rhenium as well as osmium isotope ratio in copper-bearing porphyry of Chuquicamata, el Teniente and Andacollo and in the stratiform copper deposits of Mantos Blancos, El Soldado, Cerro Negro and Talcuna

  8. Climate dynamics of South America during summer: Connections between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenters, Johh Derick

    1997-05-01

    Relationships between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation over South America during austral summer are examined using a GCM, linear model, and observational analyses. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of upper-tropospheric circulation features such as the Bolivian high and its effects on South American precipitation variability, particularly on the Central Andean Altiplano. Results from the linear model indicate that the Bolivian high and 'Nordeste low' are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, Central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the Central Andes. In the GCM the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high. Observations from eight summer seasons reveal a close relationship between precipitation variability in the Central Andes and the position and intensity of the Bolivian high. The physical mechanisms of this connection are explored using composite, EOF, and correlation techniques. On intraseasonal to interannual timescales, rainy episodes on the Altiplano are found to be associated with warm, moist, poleward flow along the eastern flank of the Andes, often in conjunction with extratropical disturbances and a westward displacement of the SACZ. Corresponding to this

  9. Characterization of tropical precipitation using drop size distribution and rain rate-radar reflectivity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Saurabh; Maitra, Animesh

    2018-04-01

    Characterization of precipitation is important for proper interpretation of rain information from remotely sensed data. Rain attenuation and radar reflectivity (Z) depend directly on the drop size distribution (DSD). The relation between radar reflectivity/rain attenuation and rain rate (R) varies widely depending upon the origin, topography, and drop evolution mechanism and needs further understanding of the precipitation characteristics. The present work utilizes 2 years of concurrent measurements of DSD using a ground-based disdrometer at five diverse climatic conditions in Indian subcontinent and explores the possibility of rain classification based on microphysical characteristics of precipitation. It is observed that both gamma and lognormal distributions are performing almost similar for Indian region with a marginally better performance by one model than other depending upon the locations. It has also been found that shape-slope relationship of gamma distribution can be a good indicator of rain type. The Z-R relation, Z = ARb, is found to vary widely for different precipitation systems, with convective rain that has higher values of A than the stratiform rain for two locations, whereas the reverse is observed for the rest of the three locations. Further, the results indicate that the majority of rainfall (>50%) in Indian region is due to the convective rain although the occurrence time of convective rain is low (<10%).

  10. Disdrometer-based C-Band Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    An adequate quantification of precipitation over land is critical for many societal applications including agriculture, hydroelectricity generation, water supply, and risk management associated with extreme events. The use of rain gauges, a traditional method for precipitation estimation, and an excellent one, to estimate the volume of liquid water during a particular precipitation event, does not allow to fully capture the highly spatial variability of the phenomena which is a requirement for almost all practical applications. On the other hand, the weather radar, an active remote sensing sensor, provides a proxy for rainfall with fine spatial resolution and adequate temporary sampling, however, it does not measure surface precipitation. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of the weather radar, it is necessary to develop quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques combining radar information with in-situ measurements. Different QPE methodologies are explored and adapted to local observations in a highly complex terrain region in tropical Colombia using a C-Band radar and a relatively dense network of rain gauges and disdrometers. One important result is that the expressions reported in the literature for extratropical locations are not representative of the conditions found in the tropical region studied. In addition to reproducing the state-of-the-art techniques, a new multi-stage methodology based on radar-derived variables and disdrometer data is proposed in order to achieve the best QPE possible. The main motivation for this new methodology is based on the fact that most traditional QPE methods do not directly take into account the different uncertainty sources involved in the process. The main advantage of the multi-stage model compared to traditional models is that it allows assessing and quantifying the uncertainty in the surface rain rate estimation. The sub-hourly rainfall estimations using the multi-stage methodology are realistic

  11. Does GPM-based multi-satellite precipitation enhance rainfall estimates over Pakistan and Bolivia arid regions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Y.; Satgé, F.; Bonnet, M. P.; Pillco, R.; Molina, J.; Timouk, F.; Roig, H.; Martinez-Carvajal, H., Sr.; Gulraiz, A.

    2016-12-01

    Arid regions are sensitive to rainfall variations which are expressed in the form of flooding and droughts. Unfortunately, those regions are poorly monitored and high quality rainfall estimates are still needed. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission released two new satellite rainfall products named Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals GPM (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation version 6 (GSMaP-v6) bringing the possibility of accurate rainfall monitoring over these countries. This study assessed both products at monthly scale over Pakistan considering dry and wet season over the 4 main climatic zones from 2014 to 2016. With similar climatic conditions, the Altiplano region of Bolivia is considered to quantify the influence of big lakes (Titicaca and Poopó) in rainfall estimates. For comparison, the widely used TRMM-Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43 (TMPA-3B43) version 7 is also involved in the analysis to observe the potential enhancement in rainfall estimate brought by GPM products. Rainfall estimates derived from 110 rain-gauges are used as reference to compare IMERG, GSMaP-v6 and TMPA-3B43 at the 0.1° and 0.25° spatial resolution. Over both regions, IMERG and GSMaP-v6 capture the spatial pattern of precipitation as well as TMPA-3B43. All products tend to over estimates rainfall over very arid regions. This feature is even more marked during dry season. However, during this season, both reference and estimated rainfall remain very low and do not impact seasonal water budget computation. On a general way, IMERG slightly outperforms TMPA-3B43 and GSMaP-v6 which provides the less accurate rainfall estimate. The TMPA-3B43 rainfall underestimation previously found over Lake Titicaca is still observed in IMERG estimates. However, GSMaP-v6 considerably decreases the underestimation providing the most accurate rainfall estimate over the lake. MOD11C3 Land Surface Temperature (LST) and ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset reveal strong

  12. Evaluation of CMIP5 Ability to Reproduce 20th Century Regional Trends in Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over CONUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.; Loikith, P. C.; Kunkel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Monitoring temporal changes in key climate variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, is an integral part of the ongoing efforts of the United States National Climate Assessment (NCA). Climate models participating in CMIP5 provide future trends for four different emissions scenarios. In order to have confidence in the future projections of surface air temperature and precipitation, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce observed trends for three different time periods (1895-1939, 1940-1979, and 1980-2005). Towards this goal, trends in surface air temperature and precipitation obtained from the NOAA nClimGrid 5 km gridded station observation-based product are compared during all three time periods to the 206 CMIP5 historical simulations from 48 unique GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for NCA-defined climate regions during summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). This evaluation quantitatively examines the biases of simulated trends of the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation in the NCA climate regions. The CMIP5 MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends for JJA for all time period and all regions, except the Northern Great Plains from 1895-1939 and Southeast during 1980-2005. Likewise, for DJF, the MME reproduces historical surface air temperature trends across all time periods over all regions except the Southeast from 1895-1939 and the Midwest during 1940-1979. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES), an analysis tool which supports the NCA by providing access to data and tools for regional climate model validation, facilitates the comparisons between the models and observation. The RCMES Toolkit is designed to assist in the analysis of climate variables and the procedure of the evaluation of climate projection models to support the decision-making processes. This tool is used in conjunction with the above analysis and results will be presented to demonstrate its capability to

  13. Analysis of the Effect of Interior Nudging on Temperature and Precipitation Distributions of Multi-year Regional Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T. L.; Bowden, J. H.; Otte, M. J.

    2010-12-01

    There is disagreement in the regional climate modeling community as to the appropriateness of the use of internal nudging. Some investigators argue that the regional model should be minimally constrained and allowed to respond to regional-scale forcing, while others have noted that in the absence of interior nudging, significant large-scale discrepancies develop between the regional model solution and the driving coarse-scale fields. These discrepancies lead to reduced confidence in the ability of regional climate models to dynamically downscale global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios, and detract from the usability of the regional simulations for impact assessments. The advantages and limitations of interior nudging schemes for regional climate modeling are investigated in this study. Multi-year simulations using the WRF model driven by reanalysis data over the continental United States at 36km resolution are conducted using spectral nudging, grid point nudging, and for a base case without interior nudging. The means, distributions, and inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation will be evaluated in comparison to regional analyses.

  14. Estimation of regional intensity-duration-frequency curves for extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1998-01-01

    of regional homogeneity and identification of a proper regional distribution L-moment analysis is applied. To analyse the regional variability in more detail, a generalised least squares regression analysis is carried out that relates the PDS model parameters to climatic and physiographic characteristics...

  15. Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

    2014-05-01

    Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, -0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as -127 ‰, -16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply

  16. Climate network analysis of regional precipitation extremes: The true story told by event synchronization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odenweller, Adrian; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-04-01

    Over the last decade, complex network methods have been frequently used for characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability from a complex systems perspective, yielding new insights into time-dependent teleconnectivity patterns and couplings between different components of the Earth climate. Among the foremost results reported, network analyses of the synchronicity of extreme events as captured by the so-called event synchronization have been proposed to be powerful tools for disentangling the spatio-temporal organization of particularly extreme rainfall events and anticipating the timing of monsoon onsets or extreme floodings. Rooted in the analysis of spike train synchrony analysis in the neurosciences, event synchronization has the great advantage of automatically classifying pairs of events arising at two distinct spatial locations as temporally close (and, thus, possibly statistically - or even dynamically - interrelated) or not without the necessity of selecting an additional parameter in terms of a maximally tolerable delay between these events. This consideration is conceptually justified in case of the original application to spike trains in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, where the inter-spike intervals show relatively narrow distributions at high temporal sampling rates. However, in case of climate studies, precipitation extremes defined by daily precipitation sums exceeding a certain empirical percentile of their local distribution exhibit a distinctively different type of distribution of waiting times between subsequent events. This raises conceptual concerns if event synchronization is still appropriate for detecting interlinkages between spatially distributed precipitation extremes. In order to study this problem in more detail, we employ event synchronization together with an alternative similarity measure for event sequences, event coincidence rates, which requires a manual setting of the tolerable maximum delay between two

  17. Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For

  18. The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

    2016-06-01

    This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites

  19. Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorita, E.; Hughes, J.P.

    1993-01-01

    Two statistical approaches for linking large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and daily local rainfall are described and applied to several GCM (general circulation model) climate simulations. The ultimate objective is to simulate local precipitation associated with alternative climates. The index stations are located near the West and East North American coasts. The first method is based on CART analysis (Classification and Regression trees). It finds the classification of observed daily SLR (sea level pressure) fields in weather types that are most strongly associated with the presence/absence of rainfall in a set of index stations. The best results were obtained for winter rainfall for the West Coast, where a set of physically reasonable weather types could be identified, whereas for the East Coast the rainfall process seemed to be spatially less coherent. The GCM simulations were validated against observations in terms of probability of occurrence and survival time of these weather states. Some discrepancies werefound but there was no systematic bias, indicating that this behavior depends on the particular dynamics of each model. This classification method was then used for the generation of daily rainfall time series from the daily SLP fields from historical observation and from the GCM simulations. Whereas the mean rainfall and probability distributions were rather well replicated, the simulated dry periods were in all cases shorter than in the rainfall observations. The second rainfall generator is based on the analog method and uses information on the evolution of the SLP field in several previous days. It was found to perform reasonably well, although some downward bias in the simulated rainfall persistence was still present. Rainfall changes in a 2xCO 2 climate were investigated by applying both methods to the output of a greenhouse-gas experiment. The simulated precipitation changes were small. (orig.)

  20. Relationship between satellite microwave radiometric data, antecedent precipitation index, and regional soil moisture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teng, W.L.; Wang, J.R.; Doraiswamy, P.C.

    1993-01-01

    Satellite microwave brightness temperatures (TB 'S) have been shown, in previous studies for semi-arid environments, to correlate well with the antecedent precipitation index (API), a soil moisture indicator. The current study, using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), continued this work for parts of the U.S. Corn and Wheat Belts, which included areas with a more humid climate, a denser natural vegetation cover, and a different mix of agricultural crop types. Four years (1987-1990) of SSM/I data at 19 and 37GHz, daily precipitation and temperature data from weather stations, and API calculated from the weather data were processed, geo-referenced, and averaged to equation pending latitude-longitude grid quadrants. Correlation results between TB at 19 GHz and API were highly dependent on geographical location. Correlation coefficients (r values) ranged from —0-6 to —0-85 for the semi-arid parts of the study area and from —03 to —0-7 for the more humid and more densely vegetated parts. R values were also higher for the very dry and very wet years (—0-5 to —085) than for the 'normal’ year (—0-3 to —0-65). Similar to previous results, the Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI), based on the 37 GHz data, was found to correspond to variations in vegetation cover. The MPDI was used to develop a linear regression model to estimate API from TB . Correlation between estimated and calculated APIs was also geographically and time dependent. Comparison of API with some field soil moisture measurements showed a similar trend, which provided some degree of confidence in using API as an indicator of soil moisture

  1. A study of cloud microphysics and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by radar observations and cloud-resolving model simulations: Cloud Microphysics over Tibetan Plateau

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Sui, Chung-Hsiung [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei Taiwan; Fan, Jiwen [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Hu, Zhiqun [State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhong, Lingzhi [State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China

    2016-11-27

    Cloud microphysical properties and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique because of the high terrains, clean atmosphere, and sufficient water vapor. With dual-polarization precipitation radar and cloud radar measurements during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment (TIPEX-III), the simulated microphysics and precipitation by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) microphysics and other microphysical schemes are investigated through a typical plateau rainfall event on 22 July 2014. Results show that the WRF-CAMS simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation, but has limitations in simulating time evolution of precipitation rates. The model-calculated polarimetric radar variables have biases as well, suggesting bias in modeled hydrometeor types. The raindrop sizes in convective region are larger than those in stratiform region indicated by the small intercept of raindrop size distribution in the former. The sensitivity experiments show that precipitation processes are sensitive to the changes of warm rain processes in condensation and nucleated droplet size (but less sensitive to evaporation process). Increasing droplet condensation produces the best area-averaged rain rate during weak convection period compared with the observation, suggesting a considerable bias in thermodynamics in the baseline simulation. Increasing the initial cloud droplet size causes the rain rate reduced by half, an opposite effect to that of increasing droplet condensation.

  2. Plan and Some Results of "Advanced Study on Precipitation Enhancement in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, M.

    2016-12-01

    There are several technologies to secure water resources, including the desalination of seawater, recycling of industrial water and reuse of wastewater. However precipitation enhancement is the only way we can create a large amount of water for industrial use, for example, water for irrigation, provided we find clouds suitable for cloud seeding and apply appropriate and effective methods to increase precipitation. Therefore, rain enhancement research is critical in the quest for new water security options and innovative solutions in the UAE and other arid and semi-arid regions. The main objective of our project is to better evaluate, and ultimately improve, the effectiveness of rain enhancement in the UAE and other arid and semi-arid regions using hygroscopic and glaciogenic seeding techniques. One of the major questions regarding rain enhancement today is the effectiveness of hygroscopic seeding for warm and supercooled convective clouds. Our research will investigate the microphysical processes in seeded and unseeded clouds using a combination of laboratory experiments, numerical simulations and in-situ aircraft measurements in order to decipher the mechanism responsible for precipitation augmentation due to hygroscopic seeding. In our research, major elements of cloud seeding, e.g., assessment of seedability, development of optimal seeding methods and evaluation of seeding effects, will be investigated in the most efficient and realistic way, within three years, using mainly the numerical models with the sophisticated seeding scheme, which is developed on a basis of laboratory experiments and then validated against in-situ and remote sensing observations. In addition to the research plan, the outcomes of the research projects, which will be made available to the public at the end of the project and benefit the broader society, is discussed.

  3. Effects of 4D-Var Data Assimilation Using Remote Sensing Precipitation Products in a WRF Model over the Complex Terrain of an Arid Region River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoduo Pan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Individually, ground-based, in situ observations, remote sensing, and regional climate modeling cannot provide the high-quality precipitation data required for hydrological prediction, especially over complex terrains. Data assimilation techniques can be used to bridge the gap between observations and models by assimilating ground observations and remote sensing products into models to improve precipitation simulation and forecasting. However, only a small portion of satellite-retrieved precipitation products assimilation research has been implemented over complex terrains in an arid region. Here, we used the weather research and forecasting (WRF model to assimilate two satellite precipitation products (The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: TRMM 3B42 and Fengyun-2D: FY-2D using the 4D-Var data assimilation method for a typical inland river basin in northwest China’s arid region, the Heihe River Basin, where terrains are very complex. The results show that the assimilation of remote sensing precipitation products can improve the initial WRF fields of humidity and temperature, thereby improving precipitation forecasting and decreasing the spin-up time. Hence, assimilating TRMM and FY-2D remote sensing precipitation products using WRF 4D-Var can be viewed as a positive step toward improving the accuracy and lead time of numerical weather prediction models, particularly over regions with complex terrains.

  4. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions – Part 2: The Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Walker

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol perturbations over selected land regions are imposed in Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 general circulation model (GCM to assess the influence of increasing aerosol concentrations on regional circulation patterns and precipitation in four selected regions: India, Africa, and North and South America. Part 1 of this paper addresses the responses to aerosol perturbations in India and Africa. This paper presents the same for aerosol perturbations over the Americas. GEOS-4 is forced with prescribed aerosols based on climatological data, which interact with clouds using a prognostic scheme for cloud microphysics including aerosol nucleation of water and ice cloud hydrometeors. In clear-sky conditions the aerosols interact with radiation. Thus the model includes comprehensive physics describing the aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate (hereafter ADE and AIE respectively. Each simulation is started from analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through June-July-August of each of the six years: 1982–1987 to provide a 6-ensemble set. Results are presented for the difference between simulations with double the climatological aerosol concentration and one-half the climatological aerosol concentration for three experiments: two where the ADE and AIE are applied separately and one in which both the ADE and AIE are applied. The ADE and AIE both yield reductions in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere and surface while the direct absorption of shortwave radiation contributes a net radiative heating in the atmosphere. A large net heating of the atmosphere is also apparent over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean that is attributable to the large aerosol perturbation imposed over Africa. This atmospheric warming and the depression of the surface pressure over North America contribute to a northward shift of the inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over northern South America, an increase in

  5. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions &ndash Part 2: The Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Wilcox

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol perturbations over selected land regions are imposed in Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 general circulation model (GCM to assess the influence of increasing aerosol concentrations on regional circulation patterns and precipitation in four selected regions: India, Africa, and North and South America. Part 1 of this paper addresses the responses to aerosol perturbations in India and Africa. This paper presents the same for aerosol perturbations over the Americas. GEOS-4 is forced with prescribed aerosols based on climatological data, which interact with clouds using a prognostic scheme for cloud microphysics including aerosol nucleation of water and ice cloud hydrometeors. In clear-sky conditions the aerosols interact with radiation. Thus the model includes comprehensive physics describing the aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate (hereafter ADE and AIE respectively. Each simulation is started from analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through June-July-August of each of the six years: 1982–1987 to provide a 6-ensemble set. Results are presented for the difference between simulations with double the climatological aerosol concentration and one-half the climatological aerosol concentration for three experiments: two where the ADE and AIE are applied separately and one in which both the ADE and AIE are applied. The ADE and AIE both yield reductions in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere and surface while the direct absorption of shortwave radiation contributes a net radiative heating in the atmosphere. A large net heating of the atmosphere is also apparent over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean that is attributable to the large aerosol perturbation imposed over Africa. This atmospheric warming and the depression of the surface pressure over North America contribute to a northward shift of the inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over northern South America, an increase in

  6. Future Precipitation Extremes in China Under Climate Change and Their Possible Mechanisms by Regional Climate Model and Earth System Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, P.; Xie, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Future precipitation extremes in China for the mid and end of 21st century were detected with six simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 (RCM) and 17 global climate models (GCM) participated in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Prior to understanding the future changes in precipitation extremes, we overviewed the performance of precipitation extremes simulated by the CMIP5s and RCMs, and found both CMIP5s and RCMs could capture the temporal and spatial pattern of the historical precipitation extremes in China. In the mid-future period 2039-2058 (MF) and far-future 2079-2098 (FF), more wet precipitation extremes will occur in most area of China relative to the present period 1982-2001 (RF). We quantified the rates of the changes in precipitation extremes in China with the changes in air surface temperature (T2M) for the MF and FF period. Changes in precipitation extremes R95p were found around 5% K-1 for the MF period and 10% K-1 for the FF period, and changes in maximum 5 day precipitation (Rx5day) were detected around 4% K-1 for the MF period and 7% K-1 for the FF period, respectively. Finally, the possible physical mechanisms behind the changes in precipitation extremes in China were also discussed through the changes in specific humidity and vertical wind.

  7. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions – Part 1: Africa and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Sud

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 General Circulation Model (GCM was employed to assess the influence of potential changes in aerosols on the regional circulation, ambient temperatures, and precipitation in four selected regions: India and Africa (current paper, as well as North and South America (companion paper. Ensemble-simulations were carried out with the GCM to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effects, hereafter ADE and AIE. Each simulation was started from the NCEP-analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through May-June-July-August of each year: 1982–1987 to provide an ensemble set of six simulations. In the first set, called experiment (#1, climatological aerosols were prescribed. The next two experiments (#2 and #3 had two sets of simulations each: one with 2X and other with 1/2X the climatological aerosols over each of the four selected regions. In experiment #2, the anomaly regions were advectively restricted (AR, i.e., the large-scale prognostic fields outside the aerosol anomaly regions were prescribed while in experiment #3, the anomaly regions were advectively Interactive (AI as is the case in a normal GCM integrations, but with the same aerosols anomalies as in experiment #2. Intercomparisons of circulation, diabatic heating, and precipitation difference fields showed large disparities among the AR and AI simulations, which raised serious questions about the proverbial AR assumption, commonly invoked in regional climate simulation studies. Consequently AI simulation mode was chosen for the subsequent studies. Two more experiments (#4 and #5 were performed in the AI mode in which ADE and AIE were activated one at a time. The results showed that ADE and AIE work in concert to make the joint influences larger than sum of each acting alone. Moreover, the ADE and AIE influences were vastly different for the Indian and Africa regions, which suggest an imperative need to include them

  8. Correlation of the seasonal isotopic amplitude of precipitation with annual evaporation and altitude in alpine regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jódar, J.; Custodio, E.; Liotta, M.; Lambán, L.J.; Herrera, C.; Martos-Rosillo, S.; Sapriza, G.; Rigo, T.

    2016-01-01

    The time series of stable water isotope composition relative to IAEA-GNIP meteorological stations located in alpine zones are analyzed in order to study how the amplitude of the seasonal isotopic composition of precipitation (A_δ) varies along a vertical transect. A clear relationship between A_δ and local evaporation is obtained, with slopes of − 0.87 ‰/100 mm/yr and − 7.3 ‰/100 mm/yr for A_δ_"1_"8_O and A_δ_"2_H, respectively. When all sampling points of the vertical transect receive the same moisture sources, then a linear relationship between A_δ and elevation is obtained, with vertical gradients of 0.16 ‰/100 mm/yr and 1.46 ‰/100 mm/yr for A_δ_"1_"8_O and A_δ_"2_H, respectively. - Highlights: • Amplitude of seasonal isotopic composition of rainfall depends on local evaporation. • Isotopic amplitude depends on elevation if the air moisture sources are common. • Local evaporation is controlled by atmospheric local and synoptic conditions.

  9. Correlation of the seasonal isotopic amplitude of precipitation with annual evaporation and altitude in alpine regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jódar, J., E-mail: jjb.aquageo@gmail.com [Department of Civil Engineering and Environment, Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona (Spain); Custodio, E., E-mail: emilio.custodio@upc.edu [Department of Civil Engineering and Environment, Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Barcelona (Spain); Liotta, M., E-mail: marcello.liotta@unina2.it [Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Ambientali Biologiche e Farmaceutiche, Seconda Università di Napoli, Caserta (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo, Palermo (Italy); Lambán, L.J., E-mail: javier.lamban@igme.es [Geological Institute of Spain (IGME) (Spain); Herrera, C., E-mail: cherrera@ucn.cl [Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Católica del Norte UCN, Antofagasta (Chile); Centro para el Desarrollo de Tecnologías de Explotación Sustentable de Recursos Hídricos en Zonas Áridas (CEITSAZA), Antofagasta (Chile); Martos-Rosillo, S., E-mail: s.martos@igme.es [Geological Institute of Spain (IGME) (Spain); Sapriza, G., E-mail: gsapriza@gmail.com [Departamento del Agua, Centro Universitario Región Litoral Norte, Universidad de la República del Uruguay, Salto (Uruguay); Rigo, T., E-mail: tomeur@meteo.cat [Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain)

    2016-04-15

    The time series of stable water isotope composition relative to IAEA-GNIP meteorological stations located in alpine zones are analyzed in order to study how the amplitude of the seasonal isotopic composition of precipitation (A{sub δ}) varies along a vertical transect. A clear relationship between A{sub δ} and local evaporation is obtained, with slopes of − 0.87 ‰/100 mm/yr and − 7.3 ‰/100 mm/yr for A{sub δ{sup 1}{sup 8}O} and A{sub δ{sup 2}H}, respectively. When all sampling points of the vertical transect receive the same moisture sources, then a linear relationship between A{sub δ} and elevation is obtained, with vertical gradients of 0.16 ‰/100 mm/yr and 1.46 ‰/100 mm/yr for A{sub δ{sup 1}{sup 8}O} and A{sub δ{sup 2}H}, respectively. - Highlights: • Amplitude of seasonal isotopic composition of rainfall depends on local evaporation. • Isotopic amplitude depends on elevation if the air moisture sources are common. • Local evaporation is controlled by atmospheric local and synoptic conditions.

  10. Changes in Average Annual Precipitation in Argentina’s Pampa Region and Their Possible Causes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Pérez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Changes in annual rainfall in five sub-regions of the Argentine Pampa Region (Rolling, Central, Mesopotamian, Flooding and Southern were examined for the period 1941 to 2010 using data from representative locations in each sub-region. Dubious series were adjusted by means of a homogeneity test and changes in mean value were evaluated using a hydrometeorological time series segmentation method. In addition, an association was sought between shifts in mean annual rainfall and changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure systems, as measured by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI. The results indicate that the Western Pampas (Central and Southern are more vulnerable to abrupt changes in average annual rainfall than the Eastern Pampas (Mesopotamian, Rolling and Flooding. Their vulnerability is further increased by their having the lowest average rainfall. The AMO showed significant negative correlations with all sub-regions, while the PDO and SOI showed significant positive and negative correlations respectively with the Central, Flooding and Southern Pampa. The fact that the PDO and AMO are going through the phases of their cycles that tend to reduce rainfall in much of the Pampas helps explain the lower rainfall recorded in the Western Pampas sub-regions in recent years. This has had a significant impact on agriculture and the environment.

  11. Regional climate projections for the MENA-CORDEX domain: analysis of projected temperature and precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsler, Andreas; Weber, Torsten; Eggert, Bastian; Saeed, Fahad; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    Within the CORDEX initiative a multi-model suite of regionalized climate change information will be made available for several regions of the world. The German Climate Service Center (CSC) is taking part in this initiative by applying the regional climate model REMO to downscale global climate projections of different coupled general circulation models (GCMs) for several CORDEX domains. Also for the MENA-CORDEX domain, a set of regional climate change projections has been established at the CSC by downscaling CMIP5 projections of the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the regional model REMO for the time period from 1950 to 2100 to a horizontal resolution of 0.44 degree. In this study we investigate projected changes in future climate conditions over the domain towards the end of the 21st century. Focus in the analysis is given to projected changes in the temperature and rainfall characteristics and their differences for the two scenarios will be highlighted.

  12. Similarities and Improvements of GPM Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR upon TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR in Global Precipitation Rate Estimation, Type Classification and Vertical Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyu Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Spaceborne precipitation radars are powerful tools used to acquire adequate and high-quality precipitation estimates with high spatial resolution for a variety of applications in hydrological research. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, which deployed the first spaceborne Ka- and Ku-dual frequency radar (DPR, was launched in February 2014 as the upgraded successor of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. This study matches the swath data of TRMM PR and GPM DPR Level 2 products during their overlapping periods at the global scale to investigate their similarities and DPR’s improvements concerning precipitation amount estimation and type classification of GPM DPR over TRMM PR. Results show that PR and DPR agree very well with each other in the global distribution of precipitation, while DPR improves the detectability of precipitation events significantly, particularly for light precipitation. The occurrences of total precipitation and the light precipitation (rain rates < 1 mm/h detected by GPM DPR are ~1.7 and ~2.53 times more than that of PR. With regard to type classification, the dual-frequency (Ka/Ku and single frequency (Ku methods performed similarly. In both inner (the central 25 beams and outer swaths (1–12 beams and 38–49 beams of DPR, the results are consistent. GPM DPR improves precipitation type classification remarkably, reducing the misclassification of clouds and noise signals as precipitation type “other” from 10.14% of TRMM PR to 0.5%. Generally, GPM DPR exhibits the same type division for around 82.89% (71.02% of stratiform (convective precipitation events recognized by TRMM PR. With regard to the freezing level height and bright band (BB height, both radars correspond with each other very well, contributing to the consistency in stratiform precipitation classification. Both heights show clear latitudinal dependence. Results in this study shall contribute to future development of spaceborne

  13. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  14. Increasing the regional availability of the Standardized Precipitation Index: an operational approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Cristina Meschiatti

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The need to use a length of rainfall records of at least 30 years to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI limits its application in several Drought Early Warning Systems of developing countries. Therefore, in order to increase the number of weather stations in which the SPI may be applied, this study quantified the difference among SPI values derived from calibration periods (CP smaller than 30 years in respect to those computed from the 30-year period of 1985 – 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil (time scales ranging from 1 to 12 months were considered. The correlation, agreement and consistency of SPI values derived from CP ranging from the last 30 to 21 years have been evaluated. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov/Lilliefors test indicated, for all CP, that the 2-parameter gamma distribution may be used to calculate the SPI in the State of São Paulo. The normality test indicated that, even for the period of 1985 – 2014, the normally assumption of the SPI series is not always met. However, it was observed no remarkable difference in the rejection rates of the normality assumption obtained from the different CP. Finally, both absolute mean error and the modified index of agreement indicated a high consistence among SPI values derived from the calibration period of 1991 – 2014 (24 years in respect to those derived from the 30-year period. Accordingly, it is possible to use weather stations with rainfall records starting in 1991 (or earlier to calculate, in operational mode, the SPI in the State of São Paulo.

  15. Regional Analysis of Precipitation by Means of Bivariate Distribution Adjusted by Maximum Entropy; Analisis regional de precipitacion con base en una distribucion bivariada ajustada por maxima entropia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalante Sandoval, Carlos A.; Dominguez Esquivel, Jose Y. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico)

    2001-09-01

    The principle of maximum entropy (POME) is used to derive an alternative method of parameter estimation for the bivariate Gumbel distribution. A simple algorithm for this parameter estimation technique is presented. This method is applied to analyze the precipitation in a region of Mexico. Design events are compered with those obtained by the maximum likelihood procedure. According to the results, the proposed technique is a suitable option to be considered when performing frequency analysis of precipitation with small samples. [Spanish] El principio de maxima entropia, conocido como POME, es utilizado para derivar un procedimiento alternativo de estimacion de parametros de la distribucion bivariada de valores extremos con marginales Gumbel. El modelo se aplica al analisis de la precipitacion maxima en 24 horas en una region de Mexico y los eventos de diseno obtenidos son comparados con los proporcionados por la tecnica de maxima verosimilitud. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, se concluye que la tecnica propuesta representa una buena opcion, sobre todo para el caso de muestras pequenas.

  16. Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

    2016-05-01

    The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation

  17. Effects of condensation nuclei on cloud formation and the development of precipitation in the dry season of the Amazonian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, Jorge Alberto

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to study the role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation. This is one of the most difficult aspects in the study of climate changes. Field measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud size distributions performed during the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) campaign revealed distinct characteristics between clean and polluted atmospheric conditions. Measurements were conducted over the southwestern Amazon region during September-October 2002 focusing the transition from dry to wet seasons. During this period, analysis of CCN concentrations in the boundary layer revealed a general decreasing trend from mean values higher than 1200 cm-3 to values lower than 300 cm -3 . The comparison between clean and polluted areas showed CCN concentrations 5 times higher than in polluted areas. These differences were not so strong above the boundary layer. Measurements also showed a diurnal cycle following the biomass burning activity. Cloud droplet size distributions at two regions with extremely different aerosols loading were also analyzed. During biomass-burning conditions, at high concentrations of cloud droplets, the mean diameter and liquid water content increased very little with altitude when compared with unpolluted conditions. A gamma distribution was used to fit the measured droplet spectra and the shape parameter was used as a criterion to define the best choice of spectra representation. According to the found values, narrow gamma distributions optimally fit polluted conditions (shape parameter around 5), while broad distributions are best fits for unpolluted conditions (shape parameter around 2). Based on these results, numerical experiments were carried out using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) to investigate the effects of CCN concentrations and shape parameters of droplet spectra on the development of precipitation in tropical convective clouds. The

  18. Isotopic composition of water in precipitation in a region or place

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B.P.

    2013-01-01

    Stable isotopes of water molecules in hydrology, the water cycle and Craig's global meteoric water line (GMWL) relating δ 18 O and δ 2 H are well established with a slope of around 8 and an intercept of around 10. However, in many situations the slope is less than 8 and the intercept is smaller or even negative. These observations need to be understood and a method is suggested to correlate with the global meteoric water line (GMWL). How to find the isotopic composition of water at a particular place is also suggested. - Highlights: ► A best fit line is drawn between slopes of plots on δ 18 O and δ 2 H line versus intercept of the measurement in a region. ► A new approach is suggested to understand this experimental best fit line. ► The new method is suggested to achieve the isotopic composition of meteoric water in region or a place

  19. Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, P.; Moseley, C.; Härter, Jan Olaf Mirko

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation changes can affect society more directly than variations in most other meteorological observables, but precipitation is difficult to characterize because of fluctuations on nearly all temporal and spatial scales. In addition, the intensity of extreme precipitation rises markedly...... at higher temperature, faster than the rate of increase in the atmosphere's water-holding capacity, termed the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. Invigoration of convective precipitation (such as thunderstorms) has been favoured over a rise in stratiform precipitation (such as large-scale frontal precipitation......) as a cause for this increase , but the relative contributions of these two types of precipitation have been difficult to disentangle. Here we combine large data sets from radar measurements and rain gauges over Germany with corresponding synoptic observations and temperature records, and separate convective...

  20. Assessment of Humidity Conditions and Trends Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SEPI Over Different Climatic Regions of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ghabaei S

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a recurrent feature of climate that caused by deficiency of precipitation over time. Due to the rise in water demand and alarming climate change, recent year’s observer much focus on drought and drought conditions. A multiple types of deficits and relevant temporal scales can be achieved through the construction of a joint indicator that draws on information from multiple sources and will therefore enable better assessment of drought characteristics including return period, persistent and severity. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI combines information from precipitation and temperature in the form of water surplus or deficit according to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Rainfall over some regions of Iran during some resent year was below average while mean and maximum temperatures were very high during this period, as was evaporation. This would suggest that drought conditions were worse than in previous recent periods with similarly low rainfall. The main objective of this study is to assess the influences of humidity on the SPEI index and investigate its relation with SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI over six different climatic regions in Iran. Materials and Methods: Iran has different climatic conditions which vary from desert in central part to costal wet near the Caspian Sea. In this study the selection of stations was done based on Alijani et al (2008 climatic classification. We chose 11 synoptic stations from six different climatic classes including costal wet (Rasht and Babolsar, semi mountains (Mashhad and Tabriz, mountains (Shiraz and Khoram Abad, semi-arid (Tehran and Semnan, arid (Kerman and Yazd and costal desert (Bandar Abas. The Meteorological datasets for the aforementioned stations were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the period 1960-2010. The compiled data included average monthly values of precipitation, minimum and maximum air

  1. THE EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION QUANTITY VARIABILITY BASED ON ESTIMATED CHANGES BY THE REGIONAL CLIMATIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Furtună

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climatic changes are representing one of the major challenges of our century, these being forcasted according to climate scenarios and models, which represent plausible and concrete images of future climatic conditions. The results of climate models comparison regarding future water resources and temperature regime trend can become a useful instrument for decision makers in choosing the most effective decisions regarding economic, social and ecologic levels. The aim of this article is the analysis of temperature and pluviometric variability at the closest grid point to Cluj-Napoca, based on data provided by six different regional climate models (RCMs. Analysed on 30 year periods (2001-2030,2031-2060 and 2061-2090, the mean temperature has an ascending general trend, with great varability between periods. The precipitation expressed trough percentage deviation shows a descending general trend, which is more emphazied during 2031-2060 and 2061-2090.

  2. Spatial-Scale Characteristics of Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Models and the Implications for Hydrological Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, S.H.; Christensen, J. H.; Drews, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Precipitation simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) is generally biased with respect to observations, especially at the local scale of a few tens of kilometers. This study investigates how well two different RCMs are able to reproduce the spatial correlation patterns of observed summer...... length scales on the order of 130 km are found in both observed data and RCM simulations. When simulations and observations are aggregated to different grid sizes, the pattern correlation significantly decreases when the aggregation length is less than roughly 100 km. Furthermore, the intermodel standard......, reflecting larger predictive certainty of the RCMs at larger scales. The findings on aggregated grid scales are shown to be largely independent of the underlying RCMs grid resolutions but not of the overall size of RCM domain. With regard to hydrological modeling applications, these findings indicate...

  3. A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2007-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

  4. Local and regional factors affecting the chemistry of precipitation in the spanish basque country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ezcurra, A.; Durana, N.; Casado, H.; Lacaux, J.P.; Pham Van Dinh; Garcia, C.

    1991-01-01

    The study deals with near 300 rain events sampled by means of a network of five automatic devices operating from January 1986 to November 1988. The results show that, on a local-scale, the rain chemistry is affected by the marine source of gases and particles. On a regional-scale, values of pH ranging from 5.5 to 4.8 are noticed. The acidity of rain has an anthropogenic origin that is mainly linked to the NO 3 - content. The acidity is reinforced by air flow from continental Europe. By contrast, rain water with a basic character is related to the air fluxes from Southern Spain that increase the rain content in Ca 2+ [fr

  5. Assessment of the performance of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan region during present climate: part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, S.; Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Analysis of regional climate simulations to evaluate the ability of 11 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in South Asia experiments (CORDEX-South Asia) along with their ensemble to produce precipitation from June to September (JJAS) over the Himalayan region have been carried out. These suite of 11 combinations come from 6 regional climate models (RCMs) driven with 10 initial and boundary conditions from different global climate models and are collectively referred here as 11 CORDEX South Asia experiments. All the RCMs use a similar domain and are having similar spatial resolution of 0.44° ( 50 km). The set of experiments are considered to study precipitation sensitivity associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the study region. This effort is made as ISM plays a vital role in summertime precipitation over the Himalayan region which acts as driver for the sustenance of habitat, population, crop, glacier, hydrology etc. In addition, so far the summer monsoon precipitation climatology over the Himalayan region has not been studied with the help of CORDEX data. Thus this study is initiated to evaluate the ability of the experiments and their ensemble in reproducing the characteristics of summer monsoon precipitation over Himalayan region, for the present climate (1970-2005). The precipitation climatology, annual precipitation cycles and interannual variabilities from each simulation have been assessed against the gridded observational dataset: Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources for the given time period. Further, after the selection of the better performing experiment the frequency distribution of precipitation was also studied. In this study, an approach has also been made to study the degree of agreement among individual experiments as a way to quantify the uncertainty among them. The experiments though show a wide variation among themselves and individually over

  6. Distant and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Influences Governing Integrated Water Vapor Transport and the Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation will show how the evolution of the large-scale and regional-scale atmospheric circulation contributes to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). An EPE requires that tropospheric moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the associated removal of hydrometeors be balanced by moisture replenishment via integrated (water) vapor transport (IVT) to continuously replenish condensed moisture. Moisture source regions may be distant or regional. Distant moisture sources may require the interaction of lower- and upper-level jet streams with a pre-existing mobile atmospheric disturbance to produce sufficient lift to condense moisture. Pre-existing regional moisture sources may require frontal lifting the presence of MFC to condense moisture. In cases of long-range IVT, such as moisture from a western North Pacific typhoon being drawn poleward along an atmospheric river (AR) toward the west coast of North America, moisture may be transported 1000s of kilometers along a low-level jet before a combination of dynamic and orographic lift results in an EPE. Alternatively, in the case of a typical summer warm and humid air mass over the continental United States, unused moisture may exist for several days in this air mass before sufficient MFC associated with a thermally direct mesoscale frontal circulation can concentrate and condense the moisture. In this case, there may be no long-range IVT via ARs. Instead, the atmospheric circulations may evolve to produce sustained MFC associated with mesoscale frontal circulations, especially in the presence of complex terrain, to produce an EPE. During this presentation, examples of EPEs associated with long-range IVT and distant MFC versus EPEs associated with regional MFC and mesoscale frontal circulations will be illustrated.

  7. Objective description of precipitation fields on the basis of a composition from synop- and satellite data

    OpenAIRE

    Langer, Ines

    2010-01-01

    This work will contribute to the scale-dependent verification of precipitation forecasts of the German Weather Service’s Lokal-Modell (LM). A new observational dataset separating stratiform and convective precipitation at a one-hour temporal resolution was produced for Germany for the year 2004. The underlaying idea of this work is to connect rain producing cloud types taken from synoptic observations and derived cloud types from Meteosat data by the interpolation scheme. The accuracy of the ...

  8. Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the

  9. The temporal response to drought in a Mediterranean evergreen tree: comparing a regional precipitation gradient and a throughfall exclusion experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Stpaul, Nicolas K; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Vogt-Schilb, Hélène; Rodríguez-Calcerrada, Jesus; Rambal, Serge; Longepierre, Damien; Misson, Laurent

    2013-08-01

    Like many midlatitude ecosystems, Mediterranean forests will suffer longer and more intense droughts with the ongoing climate change. The responses to drought in long-lived trees differ depending on the time scale considered, and short-term responses are currently better understood than longer term acclimation. We assessed the temporal changes in trees facing a chronic reduction in water availability by comparing leaf-scale physiological traits, branch-scale hydraulic traits, and stand-scale biomass partitioning in the evergreen Quercus ilex across a regional precipitation gradient (long-term changes) and in a partial throughfall exclusion experiment (TEE, medium term changes). At the leaf scale, gas exchange, mass per unit area and nitrogen concentration showed homeostatic responses to drought as they did not change among the sites of the precipitation gradient or in the experimental treatments of the TEE. A similar homeostatic response was observed for the xylem vulnerability to cavitation at the branch scale. In contrast, the ratio of leaf area over sapwood area (LA/SA) in young branches exhibited a transient response to drought because it decreased in response to the TEE the first 4 years of treatment, but did not change among the sites of the gradient. At the stand scale, leaf area index (LAI) decreased, and the ratios of stem SA to LAI and of fine root area to LAI both increased in trees subjected to throughfall exclusion and from the wettest to the driest site of the gradient. Taken together, these results suggest that acclimation to chronic drought in long-lived Q. ilex is mediated by changes in hydraulic allometry that shift progressively from low (branch) to high (stand) organizational levels, and act to maintain the leaf water potential within the range of xylem hydraulic function and leaf photosynthetic assimilation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. A Hybrid Framework to Bias Correct and Empirically Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation from Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, P.; Abraham, Z.; Winkler, J. A.; Perdinan, P.; Zhong, S. S.; Liszewska, M.

    2013-12-01

    Bias correction and statistical downscaling are widely used approaches for postprocessing climate simulations generated by global and/or regional climate models. The skills of these approaches are typically assessed in terms of their ability to reproduce historical climate conditions as well as the plausibility and consistency of the derived statistical indicators needed by end users. Current bias correction and downscaling approaches often do not adequately satisfy the two criteria of accurate prediction and unbiased estimation. To overcome this limitation, a hybrid regression framework was developed to both minimize prediction errors and preserve the distributional characteristics of climate observations. Specifically, the framework couples the loss functions of standard (linear or nonlinear) regression methods with a regularization term that penalizes for discrepancies between the predicted and observed distributions. The proposed framework can also be extended to generate physically-consistent outputs across multiple response variables, and to incorporate both reanalysis-driven and GCM-driven RCM outputs into a unified learning framework. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated using daily temperature and precipitation simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) . The accuracy of the framework is comparable to standard regression methods, but, unlike the standard regression methods, the proposed framework is able to preserve many of the distribution properties of the response variables, akin to bias correction approaches such as quantile mapping and bivariate geometric quantile mapping.

  11. Changes of precipitation and extremes and the possible effect of urbanization in the Beijing metropolitan region during 1960-2012 based on homogenized observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhen; Yan, Zhongwei; Tu, Kai; Wu, Hongyi

    2015-09-01

    Daily precipitation series at 15 stations in the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) during 1960-2012 were homogenized using the multiple analysis of series for homogenization method, with additional adjustments based on analysis of empirical cumulative density function (ECDF) regarding climate extremes. The cumulative density functions of daily precipitation series, the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation, and summer extreme events during 1960-2012 in the original and final adjusted series at Beijing station were comparatively analyzed to show the necessity and efficiency of the new method. Results indicate that the ECDF adjustments can improve the homogeneity of high-order moments of daily series and the estimation of climate trends in extremes. The linear trends of the regional-mean annual and seasonal (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) precipitation series are -10.16, 4.97, -20.04, 5.02, and -0.11 mm (10 yr)-1, respectively. The trends over the BMR increase consistently for spring/autumn and decrease for the whole year/summer; however, the trends for winter decrease in southern parts and increase in northern parts. Urbanization affects local trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity and their geographical patterns. For the urban-influenced sites, urbanization tends to slow down the magnitude of decrease in the precipitation and extreme amount series by approximately -10.4% and -6.0%, respectively; enhance the magnitude of decrease in precipitation frequency series by approximately 5.7%; reduce that of extremes by approximately -8.9%; and promote the decreasing trends in the summer intensity series of both precipitation and extremes by approximately 6.8% and 51.5%, respectively.

  12. Heavy metals in precipitation waters under conditions of varied anthropopressure in typical of European low mountain regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabajczyk A.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The environment is a dynamic system, subject to change resulting from a variety of physicochemical factors, such as temperature, pressure, pH, redox potential and human activity. The quantity and variety of these determinants cause the inflow of substances into individual environmental elements to vary in both time and space, as well as in terms of substance types and quantities. The energy and matter flow in the environment determines its integrity, which means that the processes occurring in one element of the environment affect the others. A certain measure of the energy and matter flow is the migration of chemical substances in various forms from one place to another. In a particular geographical space, under natural conditions, a specific level of balance between individual processes appears; in areas subject to anthropopressure, the correlations are different. In small areas, varying deposition volumes and chemism of precipitation waters which reach the substratum directly can both be observed. The study area is similar in terms of geological origins as well as morphological, structural and physico-chemical properties, and is typical of European low mountain regions. A qualitative and quantitative study of wet atmospheric precipitation was conducted between February 2009 and May 2011 in the Bobrza river catchment in the Holy Cross (Świętokrzyskie Mountains (Poland, at three sampling sites of varying land development and distance from sources of various acidic-alkaline emissions. Field and laboratory work was conducted over 29 months, from February 2009 to May 2011. Atmospheric precipitation measurements were carried out in a continuous manner by means of a Hellman rain gauge (200cm2. The collecting surface was placed at ground level (0m AGL. The application of a collecting funnel and an adequately prepared polyethylene collecting can in the rain gauge enabled the measurement of precipitation volume and water sampling for chemical

  13. Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; McHale, M.R.; Driscoll, C.T.; Roy, K.M.

    2006-01-01

    In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Two millennia of torrential activity reconstructed from alpine lake sediments: towards regional patterns of extreme precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Delannoy, J. J.

    2012-04-01

    In mountain areas extreme precipitation events trigger torrential floods, characterized by a sudden and intense rise of discharge causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, the relationship between such events and climate changes remains difficult to assess. Long-term geological records of intense events could enable to extend documented records beyond the observational data for a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in relation to past climatic changes and hence improving predictive models. In this context, lake sediment records appear a relevant archive as they are continuous records in which the identification of high-energy sediment layers allows to reconstruct flood calendar. In addition, the flood intensity can be reconstructed from the coarse fraction of each flood layer. Frequency and intensity of past torrential floods were thus reconstructed from four high-elevation lake records of the French Alps, in the framework of Pygmalion research program. Studied sites were selected along a north-south transect over this region to investigate the flooding responses to different climatic influences (westerlies in the north and Mediterranean influences in the south). High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses were undertaken for an exhaustive identification of flood layers and several dating methods (short-lived radionuclides, 14C, correlation with historic events, paleomagnetism) were combined to reduce age uncertainties as much as possible. Over the entire French Alps, the torrential-flood frequency increases at a secular timescale during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1900 AD). This increase seems in agreement with a regional high wetness, already described in the literature, possibly related to an increase in cyclonic activity. Superimposed to this secular trend, a pluri-decadal variability appears at

  15. Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thuy-Huong; Min, Seung-Ki; Paik, Seungmok; Lee, Donghyun

    2018-01-01

    This study conducted an updated time of emergence (ToE) analysis of regional precipitation changes over land regions across the globe using multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). ToEs were estimated for 14 selected hotspots over two seasons of April to September (AS) and October to March (OM) from three RCP scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and high (RCP8.5) emissions. Results from the RCP8.5 scenario indicate that ToEs would occur before 2040 over seven hotspots including three northern high-latitude regions (OM wettening), East Africa (OM wettening), South Asia (AS wettening), East Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying). The Mediterranean (both OM and AS drying) is expected to experience ToEs in the mid-twenty-first century (2040-2080). In order to measure possible benefits from taking low-emission scenarios, ToE differences were examined between the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Significant ToE delays from 26 years to longer than 67 years were identified over East Africa (OM wettening), the Mediterranean (both AS and OM drying), South Asia (AS wettening), and South Africa (AS drying). Further, we investigated ToE differences between CMIP3-based and CMIP5-based models using the same number of models for the comparable scenario pairs (SRESA2 vs. RCP8.5, and SRESB1 vs. RCP4.5). Results were largely consistent between two model groups, indicating the robustness of ToE results. Considerable differences in ToEs (larger than 20 years) between two model groups appeared over East Asia and South Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying), which were found due to stronger signals in CMIP5 models. Our results provide useful information on the timing of emerging signals in regional and seasonal hydrological changes, having important implications for associated adaptation and mitigation plans.

  16. Investigation of the relationships between DCS cloud properties, lifecycle, and precipitation with meteorological regimes and aerosol sources at the ARM SGP Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Xiquan [Univ. of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept. of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences

    2016-10-26

    In this proposed research, we will investigate how different meteorological regimes and aerosol sources affect DCS properties, diurnal and life cycles, and precipitation using multiple observational platforms (surface, satellite, and aircraft) and NARR reanalysis at the ARM SGP site. The Feng et al. (2011, 2012) DCS results will serve as a starting point for this proposed research, and help us to address some fundamental issues of DCSs, such as convective initiation, rain rate, areal extent (including stratiform and convective regions), and longevity. Convective properties will be stratified by meteorological regime (synoptic/mesoscale patterns) identified by reanalysis. Aerosol information obtained from the ARM SGP site will also be stratified by meteorological regimes to understand their effects on convection. Finally, the aircraft in-situ measurements and various radar observations and retrievals during the MC3E campaign will provide a “cloud-truth” dataset and are an invaluable data source for verifying the findings and investigating the proposed hypotheses in Objective 1.

  17. Patterns of LGM precipitation in the U.S. Rocky Mountains: results from regional application of a glacier mass/energy balance and flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J.; Refsnider, K. A.; Plummer, M. A.; Jacobsen, R. E.; Wollenberg, J. A.

    2010-12-01

    Global climate model (GCM) simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in the western United States predict changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks that would have resulted in significantly less-than-modern precipitation in the Northwest and northern Rockies, and significantly more-than-modern precipitation in the Southwest and southern Rockies. Model simulations also suggest that late Pleistocene pluvial lakes in the intermontane West may have modified local moisture regimes in areas immediately downwind. In this study, we present results of the application of a coupled energy/mass balance and glacier-flow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003) to reconstructed paleoglaciers in Rocky Mountains of Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming to assess the changes from modern climate that would have been necessary to sustain each glacier in mass-balance equilibrium at its LGM extent. Results demonstrate that strong west-to-east and north-to-south gradients in LGM precipitation, relative to present, would be required if a uniform LGM temperature depression with respect to modern is assumed across the region. At an assumed 7oC temperature depression, approximately modern precipitation would have been necessary to support LGM glaciation in the Colorado Front Range, significantly less than modern precipitation to support glaciation in the Teton Range, and almost twice modern precipitation to sustain glaciers in the Wasatch and Uinta ranges of Utah and the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Range. The observed west-to-east (Utah-to-Colorado) LGM moisture gradient is consistent with precipitation enhancement from pluvial Lake Bonneville, decreasing with distance downwind from the lake. The north-to-south (Wyoming-to-New Mexico) LGM moisture gradient is consistent with a southward LGM displacement of the mean winter storm track associated with the winter position of the Pacific Jet Stream across the western U.S. Our analysis of paleoglacier extents in the Rocky Mountain

  18. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

    2001-05-01

    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  19. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. We reveal that LAI-driven evapotranspiration feedback may reduced rainfall in parts of Africa, vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. Keywords: vegetation-climate feedback, regional climate model, evapotranspiration, CORDEX. References: Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78: 157-175. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Jones, C.D., Spall, S.A. & Totterdell, I.J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Wilĺen, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and coauthors. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3:Model description and performance. Tellus 63A, 4

  20. Forty-year (1971-2010) semiquantitative observations of visibility-cloud-precipitation in Korea and its implication for aerosol effects on regional climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Kim, Cheol-Hee

    2015-07-01

    Forty-year (1971-2010) observations of cloud cover and types have been analyzed, and implications on the effects of aerosol-cloud feedback were explored. Cloud cover and types have been observed over Korea on the basis of visible (human-eye) attributes without any change in official observing instructions. Visibility has been used as an ongoing proxy measure of aerosol concentrations, and observed meteorological variables such as sunshine duration and precipitation have been employed to analyze aerosol causes and implications for urban and regional climate. The analysis revealed persistent decade-long patterns in Korea: steadily reduced visibility (-0.37 km/yr), consistently decreasing sunshine duration (-0.06 %/hr), and declining occurrence of light precipitation. Spatial distributions of sunshine duration and visibility exhibited more localized variations in the early period (1971-1990), and tended to be more uniform throughout Korea over more recent years (1991-2010), implying the recent regional-scale impact of cloud change over northeast Asia. Cloud analysis results showed that the five most common types were stratocumulus (Sc), cirrus (Ci), altostratus (As), stratus (St), and nimbostratus (Ns), with occurrences of 33%, 17%, 17%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. Occurrence of rarely precipitating or nonprecipitating low-level Sc clouds showed an increasing (+0.34%/yr), but no (or only minor) effects of aerosols on heavy precipitation such as cumulus cloud types were found. Cloud cover in the range of 6/10 to 8/10 units has increased by 31.5±6.5%, and occurrences of both cloud-free (~2/10 units) and overcast (~8/10 units) conditions have decreased. Aerosol-cloud-precipitations interaction is highly nonlinear due to feedback mechanisms. One reason for our poor understanding of the aerosol-cloud feedback study is the variety of cloud types with their complicated responses to variations of the aerosol. Our study on the response of precipitation-cloud to long

  1. Constraining Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions of Orographic Mixed-Phase Clouds with Trajectory Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassmeier, F.; Lohmann, U.

    2016-12-01

    Orographic precipitation is prone to strong aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions because the time for precipitation development is limited to the ascending section of mountain flow. At the same time, cloud microphysical development is constraint by the strong dynamical forcing of the orography. In this contribution, we discuss how changes in the amount and composition of droplet- and ice-forming aerosols influence precipitation in idealized simulations of stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds. We find that aerosol perturbations trigger compensating responses of different precipitation formation pathways. The effect of aerosols is thus buffered. We explain this buffering by the requirement to fulfill aerosol-independent dynamical constraints. For our simulations, we use the regional atmospheric model COSMO-ART-M7 in a 2D setup with a bell-shaped mountain. The model is coupled to a 2-moment warm and cold cloud microphysics scheme. Activation and freezing rates are parameterized based on prescribed aerosol fields that are varied in number, size and composition. Our analysis is based on the budget of droplet water along trajectories of cloud parcels. The budget equates condensation as source term with precipitation formation from autoconversion, accretion, riming and the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process as sink terms. Condensation, and consequently precipitation formation, is determined by dynamics and largely independent of the aerosol conditions. An aerosol-induced change in the number of droplets or crystals perturbs the droplet budget by affecting precipitation formation processes. We observe that this perturbation triggers adjustments in liquid and ice water content that re-equilibrate the budget. As an example, an increase in crystal number triggers a stronger glaciation of the cloud and redistributes precipitation formation from collision-coalescence to riming and from riming to vapor deposition. We theoretically confirm the dominant effect of water

  2. Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

  3. Precipitation Evaluation in the Central Peruvian Andes Using Radar Data and WRF Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Y.; Scipion, D.; Moya, A.; Valdivia, J.; Villalobos, E.

    2016-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the case of study of stratiform and convective precipitation that occurred in the Observatory of Huancayo (3300 m.a.s.l.) on December 29th, 2015. The analyses were done using a Ka-band cloud-precipitation radar, a boundary layer tropospheric radar, an optical disdrometer, rain gauges, as well as other conventional instruments. We complemented the analysis using WRF with 4 domains: 18, 6, 2, and 0.6 km spatial resolution with Grell - Freitas and Kain - Fritz (Multi - Scale) cumulus parameterizations for all domains, and also settings these parameterizations only for the 18 and 6 km domains. Preliminary results show that stratiform rain occurred during early hours on Dec. 29 while at about 4pm local time there were convective rains with hail, lasted approximately 30 min. The clouds in stratiform rain did not exceed 6 km high above the surface; while for convective rain, the clouds reached up to 13 km a.s.l. The wind analysis from the BLTR indicate high turbulence before the rain event, this turbulence is better represented for stratiform rain, since for convective rains the signal is attenuated, this issue is still being studied. The 24 hours simulation shows that the WRF adequately reproduces the rainy event 29th, the convective precipitation was formed at Northwest of the Observatory at 21UTC and spreads into the valley. There are no major differences in precipitation between 2 and 0.6 km domains; however, the 0.6km domain has higher humidity in low levels and the modeled precipitation starts two hours earlier than observed.

  4. Temporal and spatial scaling impacts on extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, B.; Berg, P.; Haerter, J. O.; Jacob, D.; Moseley, C.

    2015-01-01

    Both in the current climate and in the light of climate change, understanding of the causes and risk of precipitation extremes is essential for protection of human life and adequate design of infrastructure. Precipitation extreme events depend qualitatively on the temporal and spatial scales at which they are measured, in part due to the distinct types of rain formation processes that dominate extremes at different scales. To capture these differences, we first filter large datasets of high-resolution radar measurements over Germany (5 min temporally and 1 km spatially) using synoptic cloud observations, to distinguish convective and stratiform rain events. In a second step, for each precipitation type, the observed data are aggregated over a sequence of time intervals and spatial areas. The resulting matrix allows a detailed investigation of the resolutions at which convective or stratiform events are expected to contribute most to the extremes. We analyze where the statistics of the two types differ and discuss at which resolutions transitions occur between dominance of either of the two precipitation types. We characterize the scales at which the convective or stratiform events will dominate the statistics. For both types, we further develop a mapping between pairs of spatially and temporally aggregated statistics. The resulting curve is relevant when deciding on data resolutions where statistical information in space and time is balanced. Our study may hence also serve as a practical guide for modelers, and for planning the space-time layout of measurement campaigns. We also describe a mapping between different pairs of resolutions, possibly relevant when working with mismatched model and observational resolutions, such as in statistical bias correction.

  5. Microphysical Properties of Frozen Particles Inferred from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) Polarimetric Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jie; Wu, Dongliang

    2017-01-01

    Scattering differences induced by frozen particle microphysical properties are investigated, using the vertically (V) and horizontally (H) polarized radiances from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) 89 and 166GHz channels. It is the first study on global frozen particle microphysical properties that uses the dual-frequency microwave polarimetric signals. From the ice cloud scenes identified by the 183.3 3GHz channel brightness temperature (TB), we find that the scatterings of frozen particles are highly polarized with V-H polarimetric differences (PD) being positive throughout the tropics and the winter hemisphere mid-latitude jet regions, including PDs from the GMI 89 and 166GHz TBs, as well as the PD at 640GHz from the ER-2 Compact Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR) during the TC4 campaign. Large polarization dominantly occurs mostly near convective outflow region (i.e., anvils or stratiform precipitation), while the polarization signal is small inside deep convective cores as well as at the remote cirrus region. Neglecting the polarimetric signal would result in as large as 30 error in ice water path retrievals. There is a universal bell-curve in the PD TB relationship, where the PD amplitude peaks at 10K for all three channels in the tropics and increases slightly with latitude. Moreover, the 166GHz PD tends to increase in the case where a melting layer is beneath the frozen particles aloft in the atmosphere, while 89GHz PD is less sensitive than 166GHz to the melting layer. This property creates a unique PD feature for the identification of the melting layer and stratiform rain with passive sensors. Horizontally oriented non-spherical frozen particles are thought to produce the observed PD because of different ice scattering properties in the V and H polarizations. On the other hand, changes in the ice microphysical habitats or orientation due to turbulence mixing can also lead to a reduced PD in the deep

  6. World production and possible recovery of cobalt from the Kupferschiefer stratiform copper ore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pazik Paulina M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cobalt is recognized as a strategic metal and also E-tech element, which is crucial for worlds development. An increasing demand for cobalt forces for searching of new resources that could be explored in European countries. There are many examples of cobalt recoveries, mostly from laterite and sulphide deposits. However, the accurate choice of the technology depends on many factors. The Kupferschiefer stratiform copper ore located in Poland is the biggest deposit of cobalt in Europe. Although KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. recovers many precious metals from this ore, cobalt is not recovered yet. This metal occurs as an accompanying element, mostly in the form of cobaltite (CaAsS, with the average content of 50–80 g/Mg. In this paper a possible recovery of cobalt from the Kupferschiefer ore, with the use of hydrometallurgical methods, was investigated.

  7. Comparison of region-of-influence methods for estimating high quantiles of precipitation in a dense dataset in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gaál, Ladislav; Kyselý, Jan

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 11 (2009), s. 2203-2219 ISSN 1027-5606 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : heavy precipitation * extreme value analysis * region-of-influence method * central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.462, year: 2009 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/2203/2009/

  8. Spatial patterns and temporal trends in mercury concentrations, precipitation depths, and mercury wet deposition in the North American Great Lakes region, 2002–2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risch, Martin R.; Gay, David A.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Keeler, Gerard J.; Backus, Sean M.; Blanchard, Pierrette; Barres, James A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy

    2012-01-01

    Annual and weekly mercury (Hg) concentrations, precipitation depths, and Hg wet deposition in the Great Lakes region were analyzed by using data from 5 monitoring networks in the USA and Canada for a 2002–2008 study period. High-resolution maps of calculated annual data, 7-year mean data, and net interannual change for the study period were prepared to assess spatial patterns. Areas with 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations higher than the 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion were mapped in 4 states. Temporal trends in measured weekly data were determined statistically. Monitoring sites with significant 7-year trends in weekly Hg wet deposition were spatially separated and were not sites with trends in weekly Hg concentration. During 2002–2008, Hg wet deposition was found to be unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions. Any small decreases in Hg concentration apparently were offset by increases in precipitation. - Highlights: ► Data from 5 Hg and precipitation networks in the USA and Canada were combined for the first time. ► High-resolution maps and statistical trends tests were used for spatial and temporal data analysis. ► Some 7-year mean annual Hg concentrations exceeded a 12 ng per liter water-quality criterion. ► Small, localized decreases in Hg concentration were offset by increases in precipitation. ► Hg wet deposition was unchanged in the Great Lakes region and its subregions during 2002–2008. - Analysis of monitoring data from 5 networks in the USA and Canada determined that mercury wet deposition was unchanged in the North American Great Lakes region during 2002–2008.

  9. Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

  10. Two-Step Downscaling of Trmm 3b43 V7 Precipitation in Contrasting Climatic Regions With Sparse Monitoring: The Case of Ecuador in Tropical South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacinto Ulloa

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial prediction of precipitation with high resolution is a challenging task in regions with strong climate variability and scarce monitoring. For this purpose, the quasi-continuous supply of information from satellite imagery is commonly used to complement in situ data. However, satellite images of precipitation are available at coarse resolutions, and require adequate methods for spatial downscaling and calibration. The objective of this paper is to introduce and evaluate a 2-step spatial downscaling approach for monthly precipitation applied to TRMM 3B43 (from 0 . 25 ∘ ≈ 27 km to 5 km resolution, resulting in 5 downscaled products for the period 01-2001/12-2011. The methodology was evaluated in 3 contrasting climatic regions of Ecuador. In step 1, bilinear resampling was applied over TRMM, and used as a reference product. The second step introduces further variability, and consists of four alternative gauge-satellite merging methods: (1 regression with in situ stations, (2 regression kriging with in situ stations, (3 regression with in situ stations and auxiliary variables, and (4 regression kriging with in situ stations and auxiliary variables. The first 2 methods only use the resampled TRMM data set as an independent variable. The last 2 methods enrich these models with auxiliary environmental factors, incorporating atmospheric and land variables. The results showed that no product outperforms the others in every region. In general, the methods with residual kriging correction outperformed the regression models. Regression kriging with situ data provided the best representation in the Coast, while regression kriging with in situ and auxiliary data generated the best results in the Andes. In the Amazon, no product outperformed the resampled TRMM images, probably due to the low density of in situ stations. These results are relevant to enhance satellite precipitation, depending on the availability of in situ data, auxiliary satellite

  11. Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in a flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kyselý, Jan; Picek, J.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 12, - (2007), s. 43-50 ISSN 1680-7340 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : extreme precipitation event * region al frequency analysis * Generalized Extreme Value distribution * Generalized Logistic distribution * central Europe * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology www.adv-geosci.net/12/43/2007/

  12. Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-11-15

    A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

  13. An assessment of tropical cyclone representation in a regional reanalysis and a shape metric methodology for studying the evolving precipitation structure prior to and during landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Stephanie E.

    Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is intricately organized with multiple scales of phenomena collaborating to harness the massive energy required to support these storms. During landfall, a TC leaves the tropical oceanic environment and encounters a wide range of continental air mass regimes. Although evolving precipitation patterns are qualitatively observed in these storms during landfall, the timing and spatial variability of these structural changes have yet to be quantified or documented. This dissertation integrates meteorological and geographic concepts to explore the representation and evolution of TC rainfall at the crucial time of landfall when coastal and inland communities and environments are most vulnerable to TC-associated flooding. This research begins with a two-part assessment of TC representation in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), which is selected for its documented skill in characterizing North American precipitation patterns. Due to the sparsely available data over the tropical oceans, spatial biases exist in both global and regional reanalysis datasets. However, within the NARR the introduction of over-ocean precipitation assimilation in 2004 leads to an improved analysis of TC warm core structure, which results in an improved precipitation forecast. Collectively, these studies highlight the need for sophisticated observational and data assimilation systems. Specifically, the development of new, novel precipitation assimilation techniques will be valuable to the construction of better-quality forecasting tools with more authentic TC representation. In the third study, the fundamental geographic concept of compactness is utilized to construct a shape metric methodology for investigating (a) the overall evolution of and (b) the spatiotemporal positions of significant changes to synoptic-scale precipitation structure. These metrics encompass the characteristic geometries of TCs moving into the mid-latitudes: asymmetry

  14. Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja

    2013-04-01

    The main moisture source for precipitation on the western slopes of the Central Andes is located east of the mountain range known as the Amazon basin. However, the Andean mountains, which reach up to 6000 m a.s.l., strongly influence climatic conditions along the Pacific coastline of South America as a climatic barrier for the low-level tropospheric flow and associated moisture transport from the Amazon basin. Additional, large scale subsidence caused by the South Pacific High inhabits convective rainfall at the Pacific coast where large metropolitan areas such as the Peruvian capital Lima are located. Two contrasts in precipitation can be found while crossing the Andean mountains from West to East. On the Pacific coast, at the location of the metropolitan area of Lima, no more than 10 mm mean annual rainfall occurs. In contrast, up to 1000 mm mean annual rainfall occur only 100 km east of Lima within the upper region (4000 m .a.s.l.) of the Western Cordillera. The transition takes place along the western slopes of the Western Cordillera and is characterised by a strong precipitation gradient. Here, catchment areas are located that provide most of the water resources needed to sustain an urban area of approximately 10 million people. This study investigates the interannual variability of the precipitation gradient between 1998 and 2012. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data of 22 rain gauge station, daily rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Mission (TRMM 3B42) at 0.25 degrees and reanalysis data at 36 km spatial resolution at the mesoscale. The reanalysis data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Station data was provided by the Peruvian weather service during the project "Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management in Urban Growth Centres Coping with Climate Change - Concepts for Lima Metropolitana (Peru) (LiWa)", which is financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We are interested in the

  15. Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA performance in the Central Andes region and its dependency on spatial and temporal resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. L. M. Scheel

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate time series are of major importance for base line studies for climate change impact and adaptation projects. However, for instance, in mountain regions and in developing countries there exist significant gaps in ground based climate records in space and time. Specifically, in the Peruvian Andes spatially and temporally coherent precipitation information is a prerequisite for ongoing climate change adaptation projects in the fields of water resources, disasters and food security. The present work aims at evaluating the ability of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA to estimate precipitation rates at daily 0.25° × 0.25° scale in the Central Andes and the dependency of the estimate performance on changing spatial and temporal resolution. Comparison of the TMPA product with gauge measurements in the regions of Cuzco, Peru and La Paz, Bolivia were carried out and analysed statistically. Large biases are identified in both investigation areas in the estimation of daily precipitation amounts. The occurrence of strong precipitation events was well assessed, but their intensities were underestimated. TMPA estimates for La Paz show high false alarm ratio.

    The dependency of the TMPA estimate quality with changing resolution was analysed by comparisons of 1-, 7-, 15- and 30-day sums for Cuzco, Peru. The correlation of TMPA estimates with ground data increases strongly and almost linearly with temporal aggregation. The spatial aggregation to 0.5°, 0.75° and 1° grid box averaged precipitation and its comparison to gauge data of the same areas revealed no significant change in correlation coefficients and estimate performance.

    In order to profit from the TMPA combination product on a daily basis, a procedure to blend it with daily precipitation gauge measurements is proposed.

    Different sources of errors and uncertainties introduced by the sensors, sensor

  16. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambarish V Karmalkar

    Full Text Available The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation

  17. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

  18. Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

    2018-01-01

    Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

  19. Prominence of ichnologically influenced macroporosity in the karst Biscayne aquifer: Stratiform "super-K" zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, K.J.; Sukop, M.C.; Huang, H.; Alvarez, P.F.; Curran, H.A.; Renken, R.A.; Dixon, J.F.

    2009-01-01

    A combination of cyclostratigraphic, ichnologic, and borehole geophysical analyses of continuous core holes; tracer-test analyses; and lattice Boltzmann flow simulations was used to quantify biogenic macroporosity and permeability of the Biscayne aquifer, southeastern Florida. Biogenic macroporosity largely manifests as: (1) ichnogenic macroporosity primarily related to postdepositional burrowing activity by callianassid shrimp and fossilization of components of their complex burrow systems (Ophiomorpha); and (2) biomoldic macroporosity originating from dissolution of fossil hard parts, principally mollusk shells. Ophiomorpha-dominated ichno-fabric provides the greatest contribution to hydrologic characteristics in the Biscayne aquifer in a 345 km2 study area. Stratiform tabular-shaped units of thalassinidean-associated macroporosity are commonly confined to the lower part of upward-shallowing high-frequency cycles, throughout aggradational cycles, and, in one case, they stack vertically within the lower part of a high-frequency cycle set. Broad continuity of many of the macroporous units concentrates groundwater flow in extremely permeable passage-ways, thus making the aquifer vulnerable to long-distance transport of contaminants. Ichnogenic macroporosity represents an alternative pathway for concentrated groundwater flow that differs considerably from standard karst flow-system paradigms, which describe groundwater movement through fractures and cavernous dissolution features. Permeabilities were calculated using lattice Boltzmann methods (LBMs) applied to computer renderings assembled from X-ray computed tomography scans of various biogenic macroporous limestone samples. The highest simulated LBM permeabilities were about five orders of magnitude greater than standard laboratory measurements using air-permeability methods, which are limited in their application to extremely permeable macroporous rock samples. Based on their close conformance to analytical

  20. Utilizing the Vertical Variability of Precipitation to Improve Radar QPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatlin, Patrick N.; Petersen, Walter A.

    2016-01-01

    Characteristics of the melting layer and raindrop size distribution can be exploited to further improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Using dual-polarimetric radar and disdrometers, we found that the characteristic size of raindrops reaching the ground in stratiform precipitation often varies linearly with the depth of the melting layer. As a result, a radar rainfall estimator was formulated using D(sub m) that can be employed by polarimetric as well as dual-frequency radars (e.g., space-based radars such as the GPM DPR), to lower the bias and uncertainty of conventional single radar parameter rainfall estimates by as much as 20%. Polarimetric radar also suffers from issues associated with sampling the vertical distribution of precipitation. Hence, we characterized the vertical profile of polarimetric parameters (VP3)-a radar manifestation of the evolving size and shape of hydrometeors as they fall to the ground-on dual-polarimetric rainfall estimation. The VP3 revealed that the profile of ZDR in stratiform rainfall can bias dual-polarimetric rainfall estimators by as much as 50%, even after correction for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). The VP3 correction technique that we developed can improve operational dual-polarimetric rainfall estimates by 13% beyond that offered by a VPR correction alone.

  1. SURFACE DISTRIBUTION MODELLING FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EGE REGION EGE BÖLGESİ’NDE YAĞIŞIN YÜZEYSEL DAĞILIM MODELLEMESİ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammet BAHADIR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The scope of this study was the surface distribution modeling of precipitation in Anatolia and the Aegean Region which covers the western part of our country. The precipitation was handled in terms of 10 year segments and applied with Interactive 3D Analysis, Geographically Intensive Regression, Radial Basis Function and Quadratic Trend Analysis after which a precipitation dispersion map was established. It was concluded that planetary factors had a primary impact on the dispersion and change of precipitation in the region. On the other hand, topographical characteristics were determining for local precipitation changes, it was particularly evident that the northern parts of the mountains subject to exposure received more precipitation. The temporal changes in the precipitation of the region has shown a general declining trend from 1975 up to 2010. Although the declined amount is more pronounced on the coastal parts, the situation is more critical in the inland parts with less precipitation. According to trend analysis results targeting the future, indications pertaining to the continuation of the declining precipitatıon trend have been observed Bu çalışmada Anadolu’nun ve ülkemizin batı kesimini kapsayan Ege Bölgesi’nde yağışın yüzeysel dağılım modellemesi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Yağışa 10’ar yıllık dönemler halinde Etkileşimli 3D Analizi, Coğrafi Ağırlıklı Regresyon, Radial Basis Function ve Quadratic Trend Analizleri uygulanmış ve yağış dağılış haritaları oluşturulmuştur. Bölgede yağışın dağılışı ve değişimi üzerinde plenater faktörlerin birinci derecede etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yağışın lokal değişimleri üzerinde ise topoğrafik özellikler belirleyici olmuş, özellikle dağların kuzey kesimleri bakıya bağlı olarak daha fazla yağış aldığı tespit edilmiştir. Bölgede yağışın zamansal değişiminde, 1975’den 2010 yılına kadar genel anlamda

  2. A regional model simulation of the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley. Part 2: Model bias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gong, W.; Wang, W.C.

    2000-01-01

    This is the second part of a study investigating the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Uangtze-Huai River valley (YHRV) in China using both observations and regional model simulations. While Part 1 reported on the Mei-yu front and its association with large-scale circulation, this study documents the biases associated with the treatment of the lateral boundary in the regional model. Two aspects of the biases were studied: the driving field, which provides large-scale boundary forcing, and the coupling scheme, which specified how the forcing is adopted by the model. The former bias is defined as model uncertainty because it is not related to the model itself, while the latter bias (as well as those biases attributed to other sources) is referred to as model error. These two aspects were examined by analyzing the regional model simulations of the 1991 summer severe precipitation event over YHRV using different driving fields (ECMWF-TOGA objective analysis, ECMWF reanalysis, and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis) and coupling scheme (distribution function of the nudging coefficient and width of the buffer zone). Spectral analysis was also used to study the frequency distribution of the bias.

  3. Seasonal effects in the ionosphere-thermosphere response to the precipitation and field-aligned current variations in the cusp region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Namgaladze

    Full Text Available The seasonal effects in the thermosphere and ionosphere responses to the precipitating electron flux and field-aligned current variations, of the order of an hour in duration, in the summer and winter cusp regions have been investigated using the global numerical model of the Earth's upper atmosphere. Two variants of the calculations have been performed both for the IMF By < 0. In the first variant, the model input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken as geomagnetically symmetric and equal to those used earlier in the calculations for the equinoctial conditions. It has been found that both ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances are more intensive in the winter cusp region due to the lower conductivity of the winter polar cap ionosphere and correspondingly larger electric field variations leading to the larger Joule heating effects in the ion and neutral gas temperature, ion drag effects in the thermospheric winds and ion drift effects in the F2-region electron concentration. In the second variant, the calculations have been performed for the events of 28–29 January, 1992 when precipitations were weaker but the magnetospheric convection was stronger than in the first variant. Geomagnetically asymmetric input data for the summer and winter precipitating fluxes and field-aligned currents have been taken from the patterns derived by combining data obtained from the satellite, radar and ground magnetometer observations for these events. Calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection and thermospheric circulation have been compared with observations and it has been established that calculated patterns of the ionospheric convection for both winter and summer hemispheres are in a good agreement with the observations. Calculated patterns of the thermospheric circulation are in a good agreement with the average circulation for the Southern (summer Hemisphere obtained

  4. The effect of ambient air temperature and precipitation on monthly counts of salmonellosis in four regions of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, in 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grjibovski, A M; Kosbayeva, A; Menne, B

    2014-03-01

    We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2-8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI -2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1-1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1-1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

  5. Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

    2018-05-01

    Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual

  6. Iron and chlorine as guides to stratiform Cu-Co-Au deposits, Idaho Cobalt Belt, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, J.T.; Connor, J.J.

    1993-01-01

    The Cu-Co-Au deposits of the Idaho Cobalt Belt are in lithostratigraphic zones of the Middle Proterozoic Yellowjacket Formation characterized by distinctive chemical and mineralogical compositions including high concentrations of Fe (15- > 30 wt. percent Fe2O3), Cl (0.1-1.10 wt. percent), and magnetite or biotite (> 50 vol. percent). The Cu-Co-Au deposits of the Blackbird mine are stratabound in Fe-silicate facies rocks that are rich in biotite, Fe, and Cl, but stratigraphically equivalent rocks farther than 10 km from ore deposits have similar compositions. A lower lithostratigraphic zone containing magnetite and small Cu-Co-Au deposits extends for more than 40 km. The Fe-rich strata are probably exhalative units related to mafic volcanism and submarine hot springs, but the origin of the high Cl concentrations is less clear. Former chlorine-rich pore fluids are suggested by the presence of supersaline fluid inclusions, by Cl-rich biotite and scapolite (as much as 1.87 percent Cl in Fe-rich biotite), and by high Cl concentrations in rock samples. Chlorine is enriched in specific strata and in zones characterized by soft-sediment deformation, thus probably was introduced during sedimentation or diagenesis. Unlike some metasedimentary rocks containing scapolite and high Cl, the Yellowjacket Formation lacks evidence for evaporitic strata that could have been a source of Cl. More likely, the Cl reflects a submarine brine that carried Fe, K, and base metals. Strata containing anomalous Fe-K-Cl are considered to be a guide to sub-basins favorable for the occurrence of stratiform base-metal deposits. ?? 1993 Springer-Verlag.

  7. Influences of subtropical jet and Tibetan Plateau on precipitation pattern in Asia : Insights from regional climate modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sato, Tomonori

    2009-01-01

    Large topographic features, like the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Rocky Mountains, have significant impacts on Earth's climate. Numerical experiments were carried out using a regional climate model in order to study the sensitivity of rainfall distribution to the TP's thermal/dynamic effects and

  8. Global Coupled Model Studies of The Jovian Upper Atmosphere In Response To Electron Precipitation and Ionospheric Convection Within The Auroral Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millward, G. H.; Miller, S.; Aylward, A. D.

    The Jovian Ionospheric Model (JIM) is a global three-dimensional model of Jupiter's coupled ionosphere and thermosphere, developed at University College London. Re- cently, the model has been used to investigate the atmospheric response to electron precipitation within the high-latitude auroral region. A series of simulations have been performed in which the model atmosphere is subjected to monochromatic precipitat- ing electrons of varying number flux and initial energy and, in addition, to various degrees of ionospheric convection. The auroral ionospheric conductivity which re- sults is shown to be strongly non-linear with respect to the incoming electron energy, with a maximum observed for incident particles of initial energy 60 KeV. Electrons with higher energies penetrate the thermospheric region completely, whilst electrons of lower energy (say 10 keV) produce ionisation at higher levels in the atmosphere which are less less condusive to the creation of ionospheric conductivity. Studies of the thermospheric winds with the auroral region show that zonal winds (around the auroral oval) can attain values of around 70% of the driving zonal ion velocity. Also the results show that these large neutral winds are limited in vertical extent to the region of large ionospheric conductivity, tailing off markedly at altitudes above this. The latest results from this work will be presented, and the implications for Jovian magnetospheric-ionospheric coupling will be discussed.

  9. Coupled atmosphere ocean climate model simulations in the Mediterranean region: effect of a high-resolution marine model on cyclones and precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sanna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate the importance of an eddy-permitting Mediterranean Sea circulation model on the simulation of atmospheric cyclones and precipitation in a climate model. This is done by analyzing results of two fully coupled GCM (general circulation models simulations, differing only for the presence/absence of an interactive marine module, at very high-resolution (~ 1/16°, for the simulation of the 3-D circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Cyclones are tracked by applying an objective Lagrangian algorithm to the MSLP (mean sea level pressure field. On annual basis, we find a statistically significant difference in vast cyclogenesis regions (northern Adriatic, Sirte Gulf, Aegean Sea and southern Turkey and in lifetime, giving evidence of the effect of both land–sea contrast and surface heat flux intensity and spatial distribution on cyclone characteristics. Moreover, annual mean convective precipitation changes significantly in the two model climatologies as a consequence of differences in both air–sea interaction strength and frequency of cyclogenesis in the two analyzed simulations.

  10. Precipitation and measurements of precipitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, F.H.; Bruin, H.A.R. de; Attmannspacher, W.; Harrold, T.W.; Kraijenhoff van de Leur, D.A.

    1977-01-01

    In Western Europe, precipitation is normal phenomenon; it is of importance to all aspects of society, particularly to agriculture, in cattle breeding and, of course, it is a subject of hydrological research. Precipitation is an essential part in the hydrological cycle. How disastrous local

  11. Assessment of Satellite Precipitation Products in the Philippine Archipelago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, M. D.; Tendencia, E.; Espana, K.; Sabido, J.; Bagtasa, G.

    2016-06-01

    Precipitation is the most important weather parameter in the Philippines. Made up of more than 7100 islands, the Philippine archipelago is an agricultural country that depends on rain-fed crops. Located in the western rim of the North West Pacific Ocean, this tropical island country is very vulnerable to tropical cyclones that lead to severe flooding events. Recently, satellite-based precipitation estimates have improved significantly and can serve as alternatives to ground-based observations. These data can be used to fill data gaps not only for climatic studies, but can also be utilized for disaster risk reduction and management activities. This study characterized the statistical errors of daily precipitation from four satellite-based rainfall products from (1) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), (2) the CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) of NOAA and (3) the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) and (4) Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). Precipitation data were compared to 52 synoptic weather stations located all over the Philippines. Results show GSMAP to have over all lower bias and CMORPH with lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In addition, a dichotomous rainfall test reveals GSMAP and CMORPH have low Proportion Correct (PC) for convective and stratiform rainclouds, respectively. TRMM consistently showed high PC for almost all raincloud types. Moreover, all four satellite precipitation showed high Correct Negatives (CN) values for the north-western part of the country during the North-East monsoon and spring monsoonal transition periods.

  12. Precipitous Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Yee

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Audience: This scenario was developed to educate emergency medicine residents on the management of a precipitous birth in the emergency department (ED. The case is also appropriate for teaching of medical students and advanced practice providers, as well as reviewing the principles of crisis resource management, teamwork, and communication. Introduction: Patients with precipitous birth require providers to manage two patients simultaneously with limited time and resources. Crisis resource management skills will be tested once baby is delivered, and the neonate will require assessment for potential neonatal resuscitation. Objectives: At the conclusion of the simulation session, learners will be able to manage women who have precipitous deliveries, as well as perform neonatal assessment and management. Method: This session was conducted using high-fidelity simulation, followed by a debriefing session and lecture on precipitous birth management and neonatal evaluation.

  13. Computational Model of D-Region Ion Production Caused by Energetic Electron Precipitations Based on General Monte Carlo Transport Calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouznetsov, A.; Cully, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    During enhanced magnetic activities, large ejections of energetic electrons from radiation belts are deposited in the upper polar atmosphere where they play important roles in its physical and chemical processes, including VLF signals subionospheric propagation. Electron deposition can affect D-Region ionization, which are estimated based on ionization rates derived from energy depositions. We present a model of D-region ion production caused by an arbitrary (in energy and pitch angle) distribution of fast (10 keV - 1 MeV) electrons. The model relies on a set of pre-calculated results obtained using a general Monte Carlo approach with the latest version of the MCNP6 (Monte Carlo N-Particle) code for the explicit electron tracking in magnetic fields. By expressing those results using the ionization yield functions, the pre-calculated results are extended to cover arbitrary magnetic field inclinations and atmospheric density profiles, allowing ionization rate altitude profile computations in the range of 20 and 200 km at any geographic point of interest and date/time by adopting results from an external atmospheric density model (e.g. NRLMSISE-00). The pre-calculated MCNP6 results are stored in a CDF (Common Data Format) file, and IDL routines library is written to provide an end-user interface to the model.

  14. TCA precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation of proteins is commonly used to concentrate protein samples or remove contaminants, including salts and detergents, prior to downstream applications such as SDS-PAGE or 2D-gels. TCA precipitation denatures the protein, so it should not be used if the protein must remain in its folded state (e.g., if you want to measure a biochemical activity of the protein). © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. STRONTIUM PRECIPITATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, T.R.

    1960-09-13

    A process is given for improving the precipitation of strontium from an aqueous phosphoric-acid-containing solution with nickel or cobalt ferrocyanide by simultaneously precipitating strontium or calcium phosphate. This is accomplished by adding to the ferrocyanide-containing solution calcium or strontium nitrate in a quantity to yield a concentration of from 0.004 to 0.03 and adjusting the pH of the solution to a value of above 8.

  16. Probabilistic Near and Far-Future Climate Scenarios of Precipitation and Surface Temperature for the North American Monsoon Region Under a Weighted CMIP5-GCM Ensemble Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Martinez, M. J.; Colorado, G.; Diaz-Gutierrez, D. E.; Salinas-Prieto, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known the North American Monsoon (NAM) region is already a very dry region which is under a lot of stress due to the lack of water resources on multiple locations of the area. However, it is very interesting that even under those conditions, the Mexican part of the NAM region is certainly the most productive in Mexico from the agricultural point of view. Thus, it is very important to have realistic climate scenarios for climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, radiation, etc. This study tries to tackle that problem by generating probabilistic climate scenarios using a weighted CMIP5-GCM ensemble approach based on the Xu et al. (2010) technique which is on itself an improved method from the better known Reliability Ensemble Averaging algorithm of Giorgi and Mearns (2002). In addition, it is compared the 20-plus GCMs individual performances and the weighted ensemble versus observed data (CRU TS2.1) by using different metrics and Taylor diagrams. This study focuses on probabilistic results reaching a certain threshold given the fact that those types of products could be of potential use for agricultural applications.

  17. Isotopic constraints on contamination processes in the Tonian Goiás Stratiform Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovanardi, Tommaso; Mazzucchelli, Maurizio; Lugli, Federico; Girardi, Vicente A. V.; Correia, Ciro T.; Tassinari, Colombo C. G.; Cipriani, Anna

    2018-06-01

    The Tonian Goiás Stratiform Complex (TGSC, Goiás, central Brazil), is one of the largest mafic-ultramafic layered complexes in the world, emplaced during the geotectonic events that led to the Gondwana accretion. In this study, we present trace elements and in-situ U/Pb-Lu-Hf analyses of zircons and 87Sr/86Sr ratios of plagioclases from anorthosites and gabbros of the TGSC. Although formed by three isolated bodies (Cana Brava, Niquelândia and Barro Alto), and characterized by a Lower and Upper Sequence (LS and US), our new U/Pb zircon data confirm recent geochemical, geochronological, and structural evidences that the TGSC has originated from a single intrusive body in the Neoproterozoic. New Hf and Sr isotope ratios construe a complex contamination history for the TGSC, with different geochemical signatures in the two sequences. The low Hf and high Sr isotope ratios of the Lower Sequence (εHf(t) from -4.2 down to -27.5; 87Sr/86Sr = 0.706605-0.729226), suggest the presence of a crustal component and are consistent with contamination from meta-pelitic and calc-silicate rocks found as xenoliths within the Sequence. The more radiogenic Hf isotope ratios and low Sr isotope composition of the Upper Sequence (εHf(t) from 11.3 down to -8.4; 87Sr/86Sr = 0.702368-0.702452), suggest a contamination from mantle-derived metabasalts in agreement with the occurrences of amphibolite xenoliths in the US stratigraphy. The differential contamination of the two sequences is explained by the intrusion of the TGSC in a stratified crust dominated by metasedimentary rocks in its deeper part and metavolcanics at shallower levels. Moreover, the differential thermal gradient in the two crystallizing sequences might have contributed to the preservation and recrystallization of inherited zircon grains in the US and total dissolution or magmatic overgrowth of the LS zircons via melt/rock reaction processes.

  18. Precipitation Chemistry and Occurrence of Acid Rain over the Oil-Producing Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Kanayo Chukwu Nduka

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the nitrate, sulfate, total dissolved solid (TDS, electrical conductivity, total hardness (TH, and bicarbonates of rainwater samples collected from Warri and Port Harcourt between April–June, July–August, and September–October of 2005 and 2006 to depict onset of rainy season, mid-rainy season, and end of rainy season for the two major crude oil–producing cities of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria (although Port Harcourt is also noted for non-oil manufacturing industries. The same was done in Awka, a non-oil producing city in the hinterland of southeastern Nigeria. In each of the cities, rain samples were collected from three points in a triangular equilibrium using a clean plastic basin fastened to a table 2 m above ground level and 115 m away from tall buildings and trees. The parameters were determined after filtering, using their respective standard methods. Averages of 1.50, 1.81, 1.13 and 2.14, 1.50, 1.86 mg/l of nitrate for April–June, July–August, and September–October were recorded for Warri in 2005 and 2006, respectively. While 15.21, 3.23, 22.31 and 20.89, 9.96, and 14.27 mg/l were recorded in Port Harcourt. Sulfate levels for Warri and Port Harcourt for the same periods are follows: 1.38, 1.88, 1.06, 1.50, 1.43, 1.50 and 2.64, 1.15, 5.88, 4.73, 1.90, 1.55 mg/l, respectively. Nitrate levels were higher than sulfate. Other parameters include TDS (5.44, 4.79, 3.30 and 7.63, 3.69, 2.56 mg/l for Warri in 2005 and 2006; 12.57, 2.07, 25.214 and 28.87, 6.73, 7.80 mg/l for Port Harcourt for the same periods. Other parameters also varied in that order for the 2 years in same cities. Crude oil exploration and gas flaring in the Niger Delta, and multiplicity of cottage industries in Awka, impacted on the inorganic ion pollution of the rainwater. This may have public health implications in the region.

  19. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Model Simulations for Tropical and Continental Summertime Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Wu, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The strength of the algorithm relies in part on the representativeness of the simulations; more realistic simulations provide a stronger link between the observables and simulated heating profiles. The current "TRMM" version of the CSH algorithm relies on 2D GCE simulations using an improved version of the Goddard 3-class ice scheme (3ICE), a moderate-sized domain, and 1-km horizontal resolution. Updating the LUTs, which are suitable for tropical and continental summertime environments requires new, more realistic GCE simulations. New simulations are performed using a new, improved 4-class ice scheme, which has been shown to outperform the 3ICE scheme, especially for intense convection. Additional grid configurations are also tested and evaluated to find the best overall setup to for re-deriving and updating the CSH tropical/summertime LUTs.

  20. Ice particle production in mid-level stratiform mixed-phase clouds observed with collocated A-Train measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Collocated A-Train CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar measurements between 2006 and 2010 are analyzed to study primary ice particle production characteristics in mid-level stratiform mixed-phase clouds on a global scale. For similar clouds in terms of cloud top temperature and liquid water path, Northern Hemisphere latitude bands have layer-maximum radar reflectivity (ZL that is  ∼  1 to 8 dBZ larger than their counterparts in the Southern Hemisphere. The systematically larger ZL under similar cloud conditions suggests larger ice number concentrations in mid-level stratiform mixed-phase clouds over the Northern Hemisphere, which is possibly related to higher background aerosol loadings. Furthermore, we show that springtime northern mid- and high latitudes have ZL that is larger by up to 6 dBZ (a factor of 4 higher ice number concentration than other seasons, which might be related to more dust events that provide effective ice nucleating particles. Our study suggests that aerosol-dependent ice number concentration parameterizations are required in climate models to improve mixed-phase cloud simulations, especially over the Northern Hemisphere.

  1. Sustainable land cover and terrain modification to enhance convection and precipitation in the arid region of the United Arab Emirates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulfmeyer, V.; Branch, O.; Adebabseh, A.; Temimi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Irrigated plantations and modified terrain can provide a sustainable means of enhancing convective rainfall in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates, or UAE, and can be used to aid ongoing cloud seeding operations through the geographic-localization of seedable cloud formation. The first method, the planting of vast irrigated plantations of hardy desert shrubs, can lead to wind convergence and vertical mixing through increased roughness and modified radiative balances. When upper-air atmospheric instability is present, these phenomena can initiate convection. The second method, increasing the elevation of moderate-sized mountains, is based on the correlation between elevation and the number of summertime convection initiation events observed in the mountains of the UAE and Oman. This augmentation of existing orographic features should therefore increase the likelihood and geographic range of convection initiation events. High-resolution simulations provide a powerful means of assessing the likely impacts of land surface modifications. Previous convection-permitting simulations have yielded some evidential support for these hypotheses, but higher resolutions down to 1 km provide more detail regarding convective processes and land surface representation. Using seasonal simulations with the WRF-NOAHMP land-atmosphere model at a 2.5 km resolution, we identify frequent zones of convergence and atmospheric instability in the UAE and select interesting cases. Using these results, as well as an agricultural feasibility study, we identify optimal plantation positions within the UAE. We then run realistic plantation scenarios for single case studies at 1 km resolution. Using the same cases, we simulate the impact of augmenting mountain elevations on convective processes, with the augmentation being achieved through GIS-based modification of the terrain data. For both methods, we assess the impacts quantitatively and qualitatively, and assess key processes and

  2. Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic

  3. A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.

    2015-12-01

    Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical

  4. High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection. Part I ; Consistency of In Situ and Remote-Sensing Observations with Stratiform Rain Column Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.; Grandin, A.; Dezitter, F.; Weber, M.; Strapp, J. W.; Korolev, A. V.; Williams, C. R.

    2015-01-01

    Occurrences of jet engine power loss and damage have been associated with flight through fully glaciated deep convection at -10 to -50 degrees Centigrade. Power loss events commonly occur during flight through radar reflectivity (Zeta (sub e)) less than 20-30 decibels relative to Zeta (dBZ - radar returns) and no more than moderate turbulence, often overlying moderate to heavy rain near the surface. During 2010-2012, Airbus carried out flight tests seeking to characterize the highest ice water content (IWC) in such low-radar-reflectivity regions of large, cold-topped storm systems in the vicinity of Cayenne, Darwin, and Santiago. Within the highest IWC regions encountered, at typical sampling elevations (circa 11 kilometers), the measured ice size distributions exhibit a notably narrow concentration of mass over area-equivalent diameters of 100-500 micrometers. Given substantial and poorly quantified measurement uncertainties, here we evaluate the consistency of the Airbus in situ measurements with ground-based profiling radar observations obtained under quasi-steady, heavy stratiform rain conditions in one of the Airbus-sampled locations. We find that profiler-observed radar reflectivities and mean Doppler velocities at Airbus sampling temperatures are generally consistent with those calculated from in situ size-distribution measurements. We also find that column simulations using the in situ size distributions as an upper boundary condition are generally consistent with observed profiles of radar reflectivity (Ze), mean Doppler velocity (MDV), and retrieved rain rate. The results of these consistency checks motivate an examination of the microphysical pathways that could be responsible for the observed size-distribution features in Ackerman et al. (2015).

  5. Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virts, Katrina S.; Houze, Robert A.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal and intraseasonal differences in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South Asia are examined using A-Train satellites, a ground-based lightning network, and reanalysis fields. Pre-monsoon (April-May) MCSs occur primarily over Bangladesh and the eastern Bay of Bengal. During the monsoon (June-September), small MCSs occur over the Meghalaya Plateau and northeast Himalayan notch, while large and connected MCSs are most widespread over the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon MCSs produce less lightning and exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil reflectivity structures in CloudSat observations than do pre-monsoon MCSs. During the monsoon season, Bay of Bengal and Meghalaya Plateau MCSs vary with the 30-60 day northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation, while northeast Himalayan notch MCSs are associated with weak large-scale anomalies but locally enhanced CAPE. During intraseasonal active periods, a zone of enhanced large and connected MCSs, precipitation, and lightning extends from the northeastern Arabian Sea southeast over India and the Bay of Bengal, flanked by suppressed anomalies. Spatial variability is observed within this enhancement zone: lightning is most enhanced where MCSs are less enhanced, and vice versa. Reanalysis composites indicate that Bay of Bengal MCSs are associated with monsoon depressions, which are frequent during active monsoon periods, while Meghalaya Plateau MCSs are most frequent at the end of break periods, as anomalous southwesterly winds strengthen moist advection toward the terrain. Over both regions, MCSs exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil regions and less lightning when the large-scale environment is moister, and vice versa.

  6. Precipitation Matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDuffie, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    Although weather, including its role in the water cycle, is included in most elementary science programs, any further examination of raindrops and snowflakes is rare. Together rain and snow make up most of the precipitation that replenishes Earth's life-sustaining fresh water supply. When viewed individually, raindrops and snowflakes are quite…

  7. Precipitation Processes developed during ARM (1997), TOGA COARE(1992), GATE(1 974), SCSMEX(1998) and KWAJEX(1999): Consistent 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-H.; Simpson, J.; Starr, D.; Johnson, D.; Sud, Y.

    2003-01-01

    Real clouds and clouds systems are inherently three dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud system with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D simulations of these same cases. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main forcing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used in CSU and U.K. Met Office showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this project are to calculate and axamine: (1)the surface energy and water budgets, (2) the precipitation processes in the convective and stratiform regions, (3) the cloud upward and downward mass fluxes in the convective and stratiform regions; (4) cloud characteristics such as size, updraft intensity and lifetime, and (5) the entrainment and detrainment rates associated with clouds and cloud systems that developed in TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM and KWAJEX. Of special note is that the analyzed (model generated) data sets are all produced by the same current version of the GCE model, i.e. consistent model physics and configurations. Trajectory analyse and inert tracer calculation will be conducted to identify the differences and similarities in the organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

  8. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

  9. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo

    1997-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

  10. The dependence of entrainment and drizzle in marine stratiform clouds on biomass burning aerosols derived from stable isotope and thermodynamic profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henze, D.; Noone, D.

    2017-12-01

    A third of the world's biomass burning aerosol (BBA) particles are generated in southern Africa, and these particles are swept into the midlevel troposphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. The presence of these aerosols over the marine environment of the south east Atlantic offers a unique natural laboratory for studying aerosol effects on climate, and specifically a modification to the hydrologic cycle and microphysical characteristics of clouds. Different rates of condensation with high aerosol numbers change the precipitation rates in drizzling stratiform clouds, while the mixing of aerosols into the cloud layer is synonymous with entrainment from above cloud top near the top of the subtropical inversion. To better understanding the magnitude of the aerosol influence on southeast Atlantic boundary layer clouds we analyze the cloud-top entrainment and drizzle as a function of aerosol loading to determine the impact of BBA. Entrainment was determined from mixing line analysis based on profile measurements of moist static energy, total water, and the two most common heavy isotopes of water - HDO and H218O. Data was collected on the P-3 Orion aircraft during the NASA 2017 ORACLES campaign. Using these measurements, a box model was constructed using the combined conservation laws associated with all four of these quantities to estimate the entrainment and rainout of cloud liquid. The population of profiles sampled by the aircraft over the course of the 30 day mission spans varying concentrations of BBA. Initial plots of the water isotope mixing lines show where and to what degree the BBA air mass has mixed into the boundary layer air mass from above. This is demonstrated by the fact that the mixing end-members are the same for the different areas sampled, but the rate at which the various mixing lines are traversed as a function of altitude varies. Further, the mixing lines as a function of height traverse back and forth between end members multiple times over one

  11. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2012-12-01

    rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. Our study, the first application of a coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa, reveals that vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa.

  12. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: Addressing Higher Latitude, Cold Season, and Synoptic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Tao, W. K.; Lang, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The current CSH LUTs are differentiated with respect to surface rainfall characteristics, which is effective for tropical and continental summertime environments. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics and mid-latitudes to higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. Accordingly, the CSH algorithm and LUTs need to be updated for higher latitude events. In this study, NU-WRF was employed at 1 km to simulate winter systems in the US. A, new methodology has been adopted to construct LUTs utilizing satellite-observable 3D intensity fields, such as radar reflectivity. The new methodology/LUTs can be then applied to simulated radar fields to derive cloud heating for comparison against the model simulated heating. The model heating is treated as the `truth' as it is self-consistent with the simulated radar fields. This `consistency check' approach is a common well-established first step in algorithm development (e.g., the earlier CSH). The LUTs will be improved by iterating the consistency checks to quantitatively evaluate the similarities between the retrieved and simulated heating. The evaluations will be performed for different weather events, including northeast winter storms and atmospheric rivers.

  13. Two-moment bulk stratiform cloud microphysics in the GFDL AM3 GCM: description, evaluation, and sensitivity tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Salzmann

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A new stratiform cloud scheme including a two-moment bulk microphysics module, a cloud cover parameterization allowing ice supersaturation, and an ice nucleation parameterization has been implemented into the recently developed GFDL AM3 general circulation model (GCM as part of an effort to treat aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions more realistically. Unlike the original scheme, the new scheme facilitates the study of cloud-ice-aerosol interactions via influences of dust and sulfate on ice nucleation. While liquid and cloud ice water path associated with stratiform clouds are similar for the new and the original scheme, column integrated droplet numbers and global frequency distributions (PDFs of droplet effective radii differ significantly. This difference is in part due to a difference in the implementation of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF mechanism, which leads to a larger contribution from super-cooled droplets in the original scheme. Clouds are more likely to be either completely glaciated or liquid due to the WBF mechanism in the new scheme. Super-saturations over ice simulated with the new scheme are in qualitative agreement with observations, and PDFs of ice numbers and effective radii appear reasonable in the light of observations. Especially, the temperature dependence of ice numbers qualitatively agrees with in-situ observations. The global average long-wave cloud forcing decreases in comparison to the original scheme as expected when super-saturation over ice is allowed. Anthropogenic aerosols lead to a larger decrease in short-wave absorption (SWABS in the new model setup, but outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR decreases as well, so that the net effect of including anthropogenic aerosols on the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (netradTOA = SWABS-OLR is of similar magnitude for the new and the original scheme.

  14. Two-moment bulk stratiform cloud microphysics in the GFDL AM3 GCM: description, evaluation, and sensitivity tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, M.; Ming, Y.; Golaz, J.-C.; Ginoux, P. A.; Morrison, H.; Gettelman, A.; Krämer, M.; Donner, L. J.

    2010-08-01

    A new stratiform cloud scheme including a two-moment bulk microphysics module, a cloud cover parameterization allowing ice supersaturation, and an ice nucleation parameterization has been implemented into the recently developed GFDL AM3 general circulation model (GCM) as part of an effort to treat aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions more realistically. Unlike the original scheme, the new scheme facilitates the study of cloud-ice-aerosol interactions via influences of dust and sulfate on ice nucleation. While liquid and cloud ice water path associated with stratiform clouds are similar for the new and the original scheme, column integrated droplet numbers and global frequency distributions (PDFs) of droplet effective radii differ significantly. This difference is in part due to a difference in the implementation of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) mechanism, which leads to a larger contribution from super-cooled droplets in the original scheme. Clouds are more likely to be either completely glaciated or liquid due to the WBF mechanism in the new scheme. Super-saturations over ice simulated with the new scheme are in qualitative agreement with observations, and PDFs of ice numbers and effective radii appear reasonable in the light of observations. Especially, the temperature dependence of ice numbers qualitatively agrees with in-situ observations. The global average long-wave cloud forcing decreases in comparison to the original scheme as expected when super-saturation over ice is allowed. Anthropogenic aerosols lead to a larger decrease in short-wave absorption (SWABS) in the new model setup, but outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) decreases as well, so that the net effect of including anthropogenic aerosols on the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (netradTOA = SWABS-OLR) is of similar magnitude for the new and the original scheme.

  15. The Contribution of Extreme Precipitation to the Total Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Jian-Qi

    2012-01-01

    Using daily precipitation data from weather stations in China, the variations in the contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation are analyzed. It is found that extreme precipitation accounts for approximately one third of the total precipitation based on the overall mean for China. Over the past half century, extreme precipitation has played a dominant role in the year-to-year variability of the total precipitation. On the decadal time scale, the extreme precipitation makes different contributions to the wetting and drying regions of China. The wetting trends of particular regions are mainly attributed to increases in extreme precipitation; in contrast, the drying trends of other regions are mainly due to decreases in non-extreme precipitation.

  16. Assessment of GPM-IMERG and Other Precipitation Products against Gauge Data under Different Topographic and Climatic Conditions in Iran: Preliminary Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Sharifi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The new generation of weather observatory satellites, namely Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM constellation satellites, is the lead observatory of the 10 highly advanced earth orbiting weather research satellites. Indeed, GPM is the first satellite that has been designed to measure light rain and snowfall, in addition to heavy tropical rainfall. This work compares the final run of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG product, the post real time of TRMM and Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42 and the Era-Interim product from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF against the Iran Meteorological Organization (IMO daily precipitation measured by the synoptic rain-gauges over four regions with different topography and climate conditions in Iran. Assessment is implemented for a one-year period from March 2014 to February 2015. Overall, in daily scale the results reveal that all three products lead to underestimation but IMERG performs better than other products and underestimates precipitation slightly in all four regions. Based on monthly and seasonal scale, in Guilan all products, in Bushehr and Kermanshah ERA-Interim and in Tehran IMERG and ERA-Interim tend to underestimate. The correlation coefficient between IMERG and the rain-gauge data in daily scale is far superior to that of Era-Interim and TMPA-3B42. On the basis of daily timescale of bias in comparison with the ground data, the IMERG product far outperforms ERA-Interim and 3B42 products. According to the categorical verification technique in this study, IMERG yields better results for detection of precipitation events on the basis of Probability of Detection (POD, Critical Success Index (CSI and False Alarm Ratio (FAR in those areas with stratiform and orographic precipitation, such as Tehran and Kermanshah, compared with other satellite/model data sets. In particular, for heavy precipitation (>15 mm/day, IMERG is superior to

  17. Evaluation of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models within South America-CORDEX simulations: ENSO related interannual precipitation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rojas, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to investigate and compare the ability of the UK Met Office's HadGEM3-RA and HadRM3P regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate mean and interannual variability of precipitation over South America with a special focus on Chile. The HadGEM3-RA is a regional version of the newly developed HadGEM3 global model and the HadRM3P is based on the earlier HadCM3 global model. The RCMs simulations were carried out at 0.44o x 0.44o degree resolution over South America-CORDEX domain for the period 1989-2008. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by ERA-Interim Reanalysis data available at 6-h intervals with a resolution of 1.5o x 1.5o in the horizontal and 37 pressure levels. We compare the results against a number of observational datasets, including gridded dataset of CRU, UDEL, TRMM and GPCP. Moreover, available station data is derived from Direccion General de Aguas (DGA) mainly for Central Chile, which is the heartland of Chile with the highest population and important economic activities. The analysis is mainly focused on evaluating the abilities of the RCMs in simulating spatial pattern and ENSO related precipitation variability in different subregions of South America-CORDEX domain. In general, both RCMs have a good skill in reproducing spatial pattern and annual cycle of observed precipitation in climatically different subregions. However, both RCMs tend to underestimate precipitation in the Amazon Basin, which is more pronounced in the HadRM3P simulations. On the contrary, the RCMs tend to overestimate the precipitation over the Andes and southern Chile. The overestimation could be related to the physical core of the RCMs, but the discrepancies could also arise due to insufficient station network, especially in the mountainous areas, potentially yielding smaller precipitation quantities in the observed data than the true ones. In terms of interannual variability, the models capture ENSO related wet and dry interannual precipitation

  18. Towards improving the reliability of future regional climate projections: A bias-correction method applied to precipitation over the west coast of Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valved, A.; Barstad, I.; Sobolowski, S.

    2012-04-01

    The early winter of 2011/2012 in the city of Bergen, located on the west coast of Norway, was dominated by warm, wet and extreme weather. This might be a glimpse of future average climate conditions under continued atmospheric warming and an enhanced hydrological cycle. The extreme weather events have resulted in drainage/sewage problems, landslides, flooding property damage and even death. As the Municipality plans for the future they must contend with a growing population in a geographically complex area in addition to any effects attributable to climate change. While the scientific community is increasingly confident in the projections of large scale changes over the mid - high latitudes this confidence does not extend to the local - regional scale where the magnitude and even direction of change may be highly uncertain. Meanwhile it is precisely these scales that Municipalities such as Bergen require information if they are to plan effectively. Thus, there is a need for reliable, local climate projections, which can aid policy makers and planners in decision-making. Current state of the art regional climate models are capable of providing detailed simulations on the order of 1 or 10km. However, due to the increased computational demands of these simulations, large ensembles, such as those used for GCM experiments, are often not possible. Thus, greater detail, under these circumstances, does not necessarily correspond to greater reliability. One way to deal with this issue is to apply a statistical bias correction method where model results are fitted to observationally derived probability density functions (pdfs). In this way, a full distribution of potential changes may be generated which are constrained by known, observed data.This will result in a shifted model distribution with mean and spread that more closely follows observations. In short, the method temporarily removes the climate signals from the model run working on the different percentiles, fits the

  19. Discontinuous drainage systems formed by highland precipitation and ground-water outflow in the Navua Valles and southwest Hadriacus Mons regions, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargitai, H. I.; Gulick, V. C.; Glines, N. H.

    2017-09-01

    The Navua Valles are systems of paleodrainages located north of Dao Vallis, which empty into Hellas Planitia, the largest impact basin on Mars. In this study, we mapped and characterized the Navua Valles Region's individual drainage systems, including drainages along the southwestern flank of Hadriacus Mons, and one valley network from the same source as Navua Valles but flowing in the opposite direction. The major drainage systems share morphological characteristics common to both outflow channels and valley networks. The slopes in this region are dissected by two major Navua drainage systems (here Navua A* and B*) and several shorter, sub-parallel valleys formed on the highest gradient (approximately 20 m/km [1.15°]) slopes, at the lowest part of Hellas Basin's rim. The two major drainage systems originate in the highlands, and empty into the basin. Our mapping suggests that water in Navua Valles reached the basin floor in a complicated descent and included several episodes of surface ponding, surface runoff, infiltration, subsurface flow and subsequent outflow. The most prominent channel system, Navua A, forms a repetitive sequence of deep incision into bedrock, followed by a transition into broad channels in erodible materials, and then into unconfined deposits. This successive erosion-transport-deposition sequence continues to repeat along the valley's entire length forming a discontinuous pattern that is consistent with classical fluvial process models. The channels cut into volcanic plains likely emplaced from the formation of Tyrrhenus and Hadriacus Montes. The dendritic source valleys of Navua A originate from the rim of a highland crater while the rest of this subsystem consists of a single, discontinuous channel which is consistent with a single water source zone that likely supplied water for all channels downslope. These drainages may have formed as discontinuous channels, revealing the potential existence of subsurface drainage pathways located

  20. Acidity of Scandinavian precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, E; Bordin, G

    1955-01-01

    Data on the pH of the total monthly precipitation at stations of a Swedish network for sampling and chemical analysis of precipitation and atmospheric aerosols during the year July 1953 to June 1954 are presented and discussed, together with the pH data from the first two months of operation of a large pan-Scandinavian net. It is found that well-defined regions of acidity and alkalinity relative to the pH of water in equilibrium with atmospheric carbon dioxide exist, and that these regions persist to such an extent that the monthly deviations from the pattern of the annual mean pH at stations unaffected by local pollution show persistently high acidity, while inland northern stations show equally persistent alkalinity. Some possible reasons for the observed distributions are considered.

  1. Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huixin; Chen, Huopo; Wang, Huijun; Yu, Entao

    2018-06-01

    This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 °C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 °C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986-2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 °C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 °C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 °C warming

  2. Regional improvement of global reanalyses by means of a new long-term Mediterranean hindcasted precipitation dataset: a first study over the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. Sotillo

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Generation of a Mediterranean long-term (1958-2001 homogeneous high resolution environmental database constituted the main objective whitin the HIPOCAS Project. The high number of parameters included in this database allows a complete characterization of Mediterranean storms. In this paper, the HIPOCAS precipitation reliability over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands is evaluated against long-term in-situ observations from Iberia. In order to provide a more complete study, comparisons of the HIPOCAS field with NCEP/NCAR and ERA global reanalysis show the important improvement in the characterisation of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast.

  3. ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Ramos

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation is the most important weather parameter in the Philippines. Made up of more than 7100 islands, the Philippine archipelago is an agricultural country that depends on rain-fed crops. Located in the western rim of the North West Pacific Ocean, this tropical island country is very vulnerable to tropical cyclones that lead to severe flooding events. Recently, satellite-based precipitation estimates have improved significantly and can serve as alternatives to ground-based observations. These data can be used to fill data gaps not only for climatic studies, but can also be utilized for disaster risk reduction and management activities. This study characterized the statistical errors of daily precipitation from four satellite-based rainfall products from (1 the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, (2 the CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH of NOAA and (3 the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP and (4 Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN. Precipitation data were compared to 52 synoptic weather stations located all over the Philippines. Results show GSMAP to have over all lower bias and CMORPH with lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE. In addition, a dichotomous rainfall test reveals GSMAP and CMORPH have low Proportion Correct (PC for convective and stratiform rainclouds, respectively. TRMM consistently showed high PC for almost all raincloud types. Moreover, all four satellite precipitation showed high Correct Negatives (CN values for the north-western part of the country during the North-East monsoon and spring monsoonal transition periods.

  4. Global Climate Models Intercomparison of Anthropogenic Aerosols Effects on Regional Climate over North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.; Ming, Y.; Lin, Y.; Pan, B.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols can alter atmospheric radiation and cloud physics, which further exert impacts on weather and global climate. With the development and industrialization of the developing Asian countries, anthropogenic aerosols have received considerable attentions and remain to be the largest uncertainty in the climate projection. Here we assess the performance of two stat-of-art global climate models (National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 3 (AM3)) in simulating the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on North Pacific storm track region. By contrasting two aerosol scenarios, i.e. present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), both models show aerosol optical depth (AOD) enhanced by about 22%, with CAM5 AOD 40% lower in magnitude due to the long range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol effects on the ice water path (IWP), stratiform precipitation, convergence and convection strengths in the two models are distinctive in patterns and magnitudes. AM3 shows qualitatively good agreement with long-term satellite observations, while CAM5 overestimates convection and liquid water path resulting in an underestimation of large-scale precipitation and IWP. Due to coarse resolution and parameterization in convection schemes, both models' performance on convection needs to be improved. Aerosols performance on large-scale circulation and radiative budget are also examined in this study.

  5. Impact of convective activity on precipitation δ18O in isotope-enabled models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Dee, S.

    2017-12-01

    The ^18O signal preserved in paleo-archives (e.g. speleothem, tree ring cellulose, ice cores) is widely used to reconstruct precipitation or temperature. In the tropics, the inverse relationship between precipitation ^18O and rainfall amount, namely "amount effect" [Dansgaard, Tellus, 1964], is often used to interpret precipitation ^18O. However, recent studies have shown that precipitation ^18O is also influenced by precipitation type [Kurita et al, JGR, 2009; Moerman et al, EPSL, 2013], and recent observations indicate that it is negatively correlated with the fraction of precipitation associated with stratiform clouds [Aggarwal et al, Nature Geosci, 2016]. It is thus important to determine to what extent isotope-enabled climate models can reproduce these relationships. Here we do so using output from LMDZ, CAM2, and isoGSM from the Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group, Phase 2 (SWING2) project and results of SPEEDY-IER [Dee et al, JGR, 2015] from an AMIP-style experiment. The results show that these models simulate the "amount effect" well in the tropics, and the relationship between precipitation ^18O and precipitation is reversed in many places in mid-latitudes, in accordance with observations [Bowen, JGR, 2008]. Also, these models can all reproduce the negative correlation between monthly precipitation ^18O and stratiform precipitation proportion in mid-latitude (30°N-50°N; 50°S-30°S), but in the tropics (30°S-30°N), models show a positive correlation instead. The reason for this bias will be investigated within idealized experiments with SPEEDY-IER. The correct simulations of the impact of convective activity on precipitation ^18O in isotope-enabled models will improve our interpretation of paleoclimate proxies with respect to hydroclimate variability. P. K. Aggarwal et al. (2016), Nature Geosci., 9, 624-629, doi:10.1038/ngeo2739. G. J. Bowen. (2008), J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009295. W. Dansgaard (1964), Tellus, 16(4), 436

  6. Antecedent precipitation index determined from CST estimates of rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, David W.

    1992-01-01

    This paper deals with an experimental calculation of a satellite-based antecedent precipitation index (API). The index is also derived from daily rain images produced from infrared images using an improved version of GSFC's Convective/Stratiform Technique (CST). API is a measure of soil moisture, and is based on the notion that the amount of moisture in the soil at a given time is related to precipitation at earlier times. Four different CST programs as well as the Geostationary Operational Enviroment Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index developed by Arkin in 1979 are compared to experimental results, for the Mississippi Valley during the month of July. Rain images are shown for the best CST code and the ARK program. Comparisons are made as to the accuracy and detail of the results for the two codes. This project demonstrates the feasibility of running the CST on a synoptic scale. The Mississippi Valley case is well suited for testing the feasibility of monitoring soil moisture by means of CST. Preliminary comparisons of CST and ARK indicate significant differences in estimates of rain amount and distribution.

  7. Spatiotemporal variation of the surface water effect on the groundwater recharge in a low-precipitation region: Application of the multi-tracer approach to the Taihang Mountains, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakakibara, Koichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Song, Xianfang; Zhang, Jie

    2017-02-01

    Groundwater recharge variations in time and space are crucial for effective water management, especially in low-precipitation regions. To determine comprehensive groundwater recharge processes in a catchment with large seasonal hydrological variations, intensive field surveys were conducted in the Wangkuai Reservoir watershed located in the Taihang Mountains, North China, during three different times of the year: beginning of the rainy season (June 2011), mid-rainy season (August 2012), and dry season (November 2012). Oxygen and hydrogen isotope and chemical analyses were conducted on the groundwater, spring water, stream water, and reservoir water of the Wangkuai Reservoir watershed. The results were processed using endmember mixing analysis to determine the amount of contribution of the groundwater recharging processes. Similar isotopic and chemical signatures between the surface water and groundwater in the target area indicate that the surface water in the mountain-plain transitional area and the Wangkuai Reservoir are the principal groundwater recharge sources, which result from the highly permeable geological structure of the target area and perennial large-scale surface water, respectively. Additionally, the widespread and significant effect of the diffuse groundwater recharge on the Wangkuai Reservoir was confirmed with the deuterium (d) excess indicator and the high contribution throughout the year, calculated using endmember mixing analysis. Conversely, the contribution of the stream water to the groundwater recharge in the mountain-plain transitional area clearly decreases from the beginning of the rainy season to the mid-rainy season, whereas that of the precipitation increases. This suggests that the main groundwater recharge source shifts from stream water to episodic/continuous heavy precipitation in the mid-rainy season. In other words, the surface water and precipitation commonly affect the groundwater recharge in the rainy season, whereas the

  8. Precipitation of humic acid with divalent ions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Niels Peder Raj; Mikkelsen, Lene Haugaard; Keiding, Kristian

    2001-01-01

    and Ba2+. The phase diagram model can not account for the observed precipitation in region III and However, in region IV the HA appears to posses colloidal properties, which is supported by precipitation taking place at a constant zeta-potential -21mV with the same amount of added barium ion regardless...

  9. A preliminary investigation of radar rainfall estimation in the Ardennes region and a first hydrological application for the Ourthe catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Berne

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a first assessment of the hydrometeorological potential of a C-band doppler weather radar recently installed by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium near the village of Wideumont in the southern Ardennes region. An analysis of the vertical profile of reflectivity for two contrasting rainfall events confirms the expected differences between stratiform and convective precipitation. The mean areal rainfall over the Ourthe catchment upstream of Tabreux estimated from the Wideumont weather radar using the standard Marshall-Palmer reflectivity-rain rate relation shows biases between +128% and –42% for six selected precipitation events. For two rainfall events the radar-estimated mean areal rainfall is applied to the gauge-calibrated (lumped HBV-model for the Ourthe upstream of Tabreux, resulting in a significant underestimation with respect to the observed discharge for one event and a closer match for another. A bootstrap analysis using the radar data reveals that the uncertainty in the hourly discharge from the ~1600km2} catchment associated with the sampling uncertainty of the mean areal rainfall estimated from 10 rain gauges evenly spread over the catchment amounts to ±25% for the two events analyzed. This uncertainty is shown to be of the same order of magnitude as that associated with the model variables describing the initial state of the model.

  10. Multiscale comparison of GPM radar and passive microwave precipitation fields over oceans and land: effective resolution and global/regional/local diagnostics for improving retrieval algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilloteau, C.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Kummerow, C.; Kirstetter, P. E.

    2017-12-01

    A multiscale approach is used to compare precipitation fields retrieved from GMI using the last version of the GPROF algorithm (GPROF-2017) to the DPR fields all over the globe. Using a wavelet-based spectral analysis, which renders the multi-scale decompositions of the original fields independent of each other spatially and across scales, we quantitatively assess the various scales of variability of the retrieved fields, and thus define the spatially-variable "effective resolution" (ER) of the retrievals. Globally, a strong agreement is found between passive microwave and radar patterns at scales coarser than 80km. Over oceans the patterns match down to the 20km scale. Over land, comparison statistics are spatially heterogeneous. In most areas a strong discrepancy is observed between passive microwave and radar patterns at scales finer than 40-80km. The comparison is also supported by ground-based observations over the continental US derived from the NOAA/NSSL MRMS suite of products. While larger discrepancies over land than over oceans are classically explained by land complex surface emissivity perturbing the passive microwave retrieval, other factors are investigated here, such as intricate differences in the storm structure over oceans and land. Differences in term of statistical properties (PDF of intensities and spatial organization) of precipitation fields over land and oceans are assessed from radar data, as well as differences in the relation between the 89GHz brightness temperature and precipitation. Moreover, the multiscale approach allows quantifying the part of discrepancies caused by miss-match of the location of intense cells and instrument-related geometric effects. The objective is to diagnose shortcomings of current retrieval algorithms such that targeted improvements can be made to achieve over land the same retrieval performance as over oceans.

  11. Head balance of coniferous forest in years with extreme precipitation and its long-term changes in the regions of Bydgoszcz and Wroclaw

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubnowska, J.; Gąsiorek, E.; Łabędzki, L.; Musiał, E.

    2005-01-01

    Climate changes, particularly visible in the last decades of the 20th century have paramount influence on human economic activity. Heat balance is one of the factors affecting the climate. That impact is noticeable when variations in heat balance components are examined e.g. in coniferous forest. This paper presents analyses of these variations during the growing season (III-X) in the years with maximal and minimal precipitation sums. The study shows also the changes in heat balance components in Wroclaw-Swojec in the years 1964-2000 and in Bydgoszcz in the years 1945-2003 [pl

  12. Two ENSO episodes with reversed impacts on the regional precipitation of the northeastern South America Dos eventos ENSO con impactos opuestos sobre la precipitación regional en el noreste de Sudamérica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everaldo B. de Souza

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Diagnostic analyses of two ENSO episodes observed during 1954-55 (La Niña and 1972-73 (El Niño over tropical Pacific Ocean are reported. These years were marked by reversed impact on the regional precipitation observed over the northeastern South America. The observational results showed that, in the Pacific Ocean, the La Niña stayed well configured during both summer and autumn of 1954-55, however the El Niño presented its mature phase during summer of 1972-73 and an abrupt decline during autumn of 1973. On the other hand, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns related to the intertropical Atlantic SST gradient, created dynamic conditions that modulated the positioning of ITCZ in the equatorial Atlantic and regulated significantly the rainfall anomalies observed in the northeastern South America, overcoming the effect of the ENSO mode observed in the tropical Pacific.En el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio de diagnóstico de los eventos ENSO ocurridos en 1954-55 (La Niña y 1972-73 (El Niño. Durante 1954-55 (1972-73, se observaron anomalías de temperaturas de la superficie del mar (TSM positivas (negativas en el Atlántico Norte y negativas (positivas en el Atlántico Sur, lo que define la fase positiva (negativa del dipolo Atlántico. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que pese a la ocurrencia del evento La Niña (El Niño en el Pacífico, la configuración del dipolo positivo (negativo en el Atlántico creó las condiciones favorables para mantener la ITCZ al norte (sur del Ecuador. En consecuencia, se encontró un déficit (exceso de precipitación en el nor-noreste brasileño durante DEF y MAM de 1954-55 (1972-73. Por lo tanto, durante estos años la configuración anómala de TSM en el Atlántico moduló las anomalías de lluvia observadas en el Amazonas y noreste de Brasil, superando el efecto del ENSO.

  13. A multi-sensor study of the impact of ground-based glaciogenic seeding on orogrpahic clouds and precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokharel, Binod

    in individual WCR reflectivity transects downwind of the silver iodide (AgI) generators, and that the natural trends in the precipitation over short timescales can easily overwhelm any seeding-induced change. Therefore the ASCII experimental design included a control region, upwind of the AgI generators. The three case studies generally show an increase in surface snow particle concentration in the target region during the seeding period. Frequency-by-altitude displays of all WCR reflectivity data collected during the flights show slightly higher reflectivity values during seeding near the ground, at least when compared to the control region, in all three cases. This also applies to the two other radar systems (MRR and DOW), both with their own sampling strategy and target/control regions. An examination of all ASCII cases combined (the "composite" analysis) also shows a positive trend in low-level reflectivity relative to the control region, both in convective and in stratiform cases. Also, convective cells sampled at flight level downwind of the AgI generators contain a higher concentration of small ice crystals during seeding. A word of caution is warranted: both the magnitude and the sign of the change in the target region, compared to that in the control region, varies from case to case in the composite, and amongst the three radar systems (WCR, DOW and MRR). We speculate that this variation is only partly driven by different responses of orographic clouds to glaciogenic seeding, related to factors such as cloud base and cloud top temperature, cloud liquid water content, and snow growth mechanism. Instead, most of this variation probably relates to non-homogenous natural trends across the mountain range, and/or to sample unrepresentativeness, especially for the (relative small) control region, in other words to the sampling methods. The impact of natural variability and sampling aliasing can only be overcome by a storm sample size much larger than that collected

  14. Formation of thick stratiform Fe-Ti oxide layers in layered intrusion and frequent replenishment of fractionated mafic magma: Evidence from the Panzhihua intrusion, SW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xie-Yan; Qi, Hua-Wen; Hu, Rui-Zhong; Chen, Lie-Meng; Yu, Song-Yue; Zhang, Jia-Fei

    2013-03-01

    Panzhihua intrusion is one of the largest layered intrusions that hosts huge stratiform Fe-Ti oxide layers in the central part of the Emeishan large igneous province, SW China. Up to 60 m thick stratiform massive Fe-Ti oxide layers containing 85 modal% of magnetite and ilmenite and overlying magnetite gabbro compose cyclic units of the Lower Zone of the intrusion. The cyclic units of the Middle Zone consist of magnetite gabbro and overlying gabbro. In these cyclic units, contents of Fe2O3(t), TiO2 and Cr and Fe3+/Ti4+ ratio of the rocks decrease upward, Cr content of magnetite and forsterite percentage of olivine decrease as well. The Upper Zone consists of apatite gabbro characterized by enrichment of incompatible elements (e.g., 12-18 ppm La, 20-28 ppm Y) and increasing of Fe3+/Ti4+ ratio (from 1.3 to 2.3) upward. These features indicate that the Panzhihua intrusion was repeatedly recharged by more primitive magma and evolved magmas had been extracted. Calculations using MELTS indicate that extensive fractionation of olivine and clinopyroxene in deep level resulted in increasing Fe and Ti contents in the magma. When these Fe-Ti-enriched magmas were emplaced along the base of the Panzhihua intrusion, Fe-Ti oxides became an early crystallization phase, leading to a residual magma of lower density. We propose that the unusually thick stratiform Fe-Ti oxide layers resulted from coupling of gravity settling and sorting of the crystallized Fe-Ti oxides from Fe-Ti-enriched magmas and frequent magma replenishment along the floor of the magma chamber.

  15. Linkages between Icelandic Low position and SE Greenland winter precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdahl, M.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A. C.; Mioduszewski, J.; Hameed, S.; Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    Greenland's largest flux of precipitation occurs in its Southeast (SE) region. An understanding of the mechanisms controlling precipitation in this region is lacking despite its disproportionate importance in the mass balance of Greenland and the consequent contributions to sea level rise. We use weather station data from the Danish Meteorological Institute to reveal the governing influences on precipitation in SE Greenland during the winter and fall. We find that precipitation in the fall is significantly correlated to the longitude of the Icelandic Low and the NAO. Winter precipitation is correlated with the strength and longitude of the Icelandic Low, as well as the NAO. We show that in years of extreme high precipitation, onshore winds dominate, thereby advecting more moisture inland. In low precipitation years, winds are more westerly, approaching the stations from land. Understanding the controls of SE Greenland precipitation will help us predict how future precipitation in this key region may change in a warming climate.

  16. Properties of Extreme Precipitation and Their Uncertainties in 3-year GPM Precipitation Radar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, N.; Liu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme high precipitation rates are often related to flash floods and have devastating impacts on human society and the environments. To better understand these rare events, 3-year Precipitation Features (PFs) are defined by grouping the contiguous areas with nonzero near-surface precipitation derived using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku band Precipitation Radar (KuPR). The properties of PFs with extreme precipitation rates greater than 20, 50, 100 mm/hr, such as the geographical distribution, volumetric precipitation contribution, seasonal and diurnal variations, are examined. In addition to the large seasonal and regional variations, the rare extreme precipitation rates often have a larger contribution to the local total precipitation. Extreme precipitation rates occur more often over land than over ocean. The challenges in the retrieval of extreme precipitation might be from the attenuation correction and large uncertainties in the Z-R relationships from near-surface radar reflectivity to precipitation rates. These potential uncertainties are examined by using collocated ground based radar reflectivity and precipitation retrievals.

  17. Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekman, Annica

    2000-02-01

    Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO 2 (a)), sulfate in air (SO 4 (a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO 4 (aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ). Modeled concentrations of SO 2 (a), SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO 2 (a) concentration and underpredicts the SO 4 (a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO 4 (aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO 2 (a) and 2-2.5 days for SO 4 (a). For SO 2 (a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO 4 (a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO 4 (a) and SO 4 (aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO 2 (a) to SO 4 (a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations

  18. The tropospheric biennial oscillation defined by a biennial mode of sea surface temperature and its impact on the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinju; Kim, Kwang-Yul

    2016-10-01

    Temporal and spatial patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Indo-Pacific region are analyzed in conjunction with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation as represented by the biennial mode of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The biennial components of key variables are identified independently of other variability via CSEOF analysis. Then, its impact on the Asian-Australian monsoon is examined. The biennial mode exhibits a seasonally distinctive atmospheric response over the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific (EIWP) region (90°-150°E, 20°S-20°N). In boreal summer, local meridional circulation is a distinguishing characteristic over the tropical EIWP region, whereas a meridionally expanded branch of intensified zonal circulation develops in austral summer. Temporally varying evolution and distinct timing of SSTA phase transition in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is considered a main factor for this variation of circulation in the tropical EIWP region. The impact of the biennial mode is not the same between the two seasons, with different impacts over ocean areas in Asian monsoon and Australian monsoon regions.

  19. Reliability of reanalyses products in simulating precipitation and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    45

    reanalyses in replicating the observed climate data at various regions is of utmost interest. .... This dataset accurately captures the orographic influence of precipitation and ...... Clouds and Precipitation, International Commission on Clouds and ...

  20. Modelled Precipitation Over Greenland

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes the annual total precipitation from 1985 to 1999 and monthly total precipitation from January 1985 to December 1999. The data is derived from...

  1. Modelling the regional climate and isotopic composition of Svalbard precipitation using REMOiso: a comparison with available GNIP and ice core data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Divine, D.V.; Sjolte, J.; Isaksson, E.; Meijer, H.A.J.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Martma, T.; Pohjola, V.; Sturm, C.; Godtliebsen, F.

    2011-01-01

    Simulations of a regional (approx. 50 km resolution) circulation model REMOiso with embedded stable water isotope module covering the period 1958-2001 are compared with the two instrumental climate and four isotope series (δ18O) from western Svalbard. We examine the data from ice cores drilled on

  2. Modelling the regional climate and isotopic composition of Svalbard precipitation using REMOiso : a comparison with available GNIP and ice core data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Divine, D. V.; Sjolte, J.; Isaksson, E.; Meijer, H. A. J.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Martma, T.; Pohjola, V.; Sturm, C.; Godtliebsen, F.

    2011-01-01

    Simulations of a regional (approx. 50 km resolution) circulation model REMOiso with embedded stable water isotope module covering the period 1958-2001 are compared with the two instrumental climate and four isotope series (d18O) from western Svalbard. We examine the data from ice cores drilled on

  3. Experimental study of diffuse auroral precipitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouaia, K.

    1983-01-01

    First chapter is devoted to low energy electron precipitation in the evening sector of the auroral magnetosphere, during quiet and disturbed magnetic periods. Four subjects are studied in detail: the latitude distribution of the varied auroral forms and their relations to external magnetosphere; the time coefficients related to precipitations, the form and the dynamic of the diffuse precipitation equatorial frontier; the precipitation effect on the ionosphere concentration. The last part of the chapter shows that the plasma convection in the magnetosphere, associated to wave-particle interactions near the equatorial accounts for the principal characteristics of the evening sector diffuse electronic precipitations. The second chapter deals with subauroral precipitations of low energy ions, after the magnetospheric substorms, in the high latitude regions of the morning sector [fr

  4. CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yong-mei; REN Fu-min; LI Wei-jing; WANG Xiao-ling

    2008-01-01

    The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. Typhoon precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan, while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April - December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons.

  5. Research of chemical structure of atmospheric precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korenyak, D.

    2001-01-01

    The structure of atmospheric precipitation changes in its passing through the air medium. Thus, the atmospheric precipitation is one of the ecological factors, acting regularly. The research of chemical structure of atmospheric precipitation is closely connected with the problems of turnover of elements, with sanitary - ecological conditions of regions, with the matters of agricultural equipment and of salt balance of the soils. In paper the author for the first time represents the data on chemical structure of precipitation in the town. The data of chemical analysis of 18 samples are given. Obtained results permitted, to a certain extent, to determine the mechanisms of formation of atmospheric precipitation in the region investigated and its genesis. (authors)

  6. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Pietikäinen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  7. Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

  8. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fita, L.; Romero, R.; Luque, A.; Ramis, C.

    2009-08-01

    The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA). An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity on temporal and

  9. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA. An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity

  10. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fita, L.; Romero, R.; Luque, A.; Ramis, C. [Univ. de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca (Spain). Grup de Meteorologia

    2009-07-01

    The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA). An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity on temporal and

  11. The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Matsui, T.

    2012-01-01

    identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.

  12. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G; Knutti, Reto; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M

    2017-12-21

    Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21 st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4% K -1 globally, 4-5% K -1 over land and 2-4% K -1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

  13. Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

    2018-02-01

    Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

  14. Critical load of acid precipitations. Mapping of Italian regions; Mappa dei carichi critici di acidita' totale riferita al territorio italiano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonanni, P.; Brini, S.; Delmonaco, G.; Liburdi, R.; Trocciola, A.; Vetrella, G. [ENEA Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente

    1999-07-01

    In this report the mapping of critical loads of acidity for the Italian terrestrial ecosystems is presented. The level O method (Stockholm Environment Institute) has been used to determine sensitivity to acid deposition; this semi-quantitative method has been modified to address some Italian characteristics. The results show that the sensitivity of the Italian soils to acidification is not particularly elevated: there are really only few small areas with poor tolerance to acid depositions. These areas are in the north-east of Italy, in Alpine and Prealpine region. [Italian] Nel rapporto vengono riportati i risultati della mappatura, riferita agli ecosistemi terrestri del territorio italiano, dei carichi critici per l'acidita' totale. Il calcolo dei carichi critici e' stato eseguito sulla base della metodologia messa a punto dallo Stokholm Environment Institute; a questo metodo semi-quantitativo sono state apportate alcune modifiche per meglio adattarlo alle caratteristiche del territorio italiano. Dall'analisi dei risultati ottenuti, si evince come la sensibilita' dei suoli italiani all'acidificazione non sia particolarmente elevata: sono state riscontrate infatti solo alcune aree, peraltro con superficie limitata, con una scarsa tolleranza alle deposizioni acide. Tali aree sono localizzate nell'Italia nord-orientale, in zona alpina e prealpina.

  15. Achieve a Better Understanding of Cloud and Precipitation Processes for the Promotion of Water Security in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrah, S.; Al Yazidi, O.

    2016-12-01

    has been recently replaced by a new drive to solve the technical obstacles impeding its potential. There is now a real prospect that this science will come of age and play its rightful part in boosting sustainable water supplies for people at risk in arid and semi-arid regions of the world.

  16. Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.

    2013-09-01

    We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.

  17. Cerium oxalate precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, T.P.

    1987-02-01

    Cerium, a nonradioactive, common stand-in for plutonium in development work, has been used to simulate several plutonium precipitation processes at the Savannah River Laboratory. There are similarities between the plutonium trifluoride and the cerium oxalate precipitations in particle size and extent of plating, but not particle morphology. The equilibrium solubility, precipitation kinetics, particle size, extent of plating, and dissolution characteristics of cerium oxalate have been investigated. Interpretations of particle size and plating based on precipitation kinetics (i.e., nucleation and crystal growth) are presented. 16 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs

  18. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  19. Origin of stratiform sediment-hosted manganese carbonate ore deposits: Examples from Molango, Mexico, and TaoJiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okita, P.M.; Shanks, Wayne C.

    1992-01-01

    Carbonate and sulfide minerals from the Molango, Mexico, and TaoJiang, China, Mn deposits display similar and distinctive ??34S and ??13C patterns in intervals of manganese carbonate mineralization. ??13C-values for Mn-bearing carbonate range from -17.8 to +0.5??? (PDB), with the most negative values occurring in high-grade ore zones that are composed predominantly of rhodochrosite. In contrast, calcite from below, within and above Mn-carbonate zones at Molango has ??13C???0??? (PDB). Markedly negative ??13C data indicate that a large proportion of the carbon in Mn-carbonates was derived from organic matter oxidation. Diagenetic reactions using MnO2 and SO2-4 to oxidize sedimentary organic matter were the principle causes of such 12C enrichment. Pyrite content and sulfide ?? 34S-values also show distinctive variations. In unmineralized rocks, very negative ??34S-values (avg. < -21??? CDT) and abundant pyrite content suggest that pyrite formed from diagenetic, bacteriogenic sulfate reduction. In contrast, Mn-bearing horizons typically contain only trace amounts of pyrite (e.g., <0.5 wt% S with ??34S-values 34S-enriched, in some cases to nearly the value for contemporaneous seawater. 34S-enriched pyrite from the Mn-carbonate intervals indicates sulfide precipitation in an environment that underwent extensive SO2-4 reduction, and was largely a closed system with regard to exchange of sulfate and dissolved sulfide with normal seawater. The occasional occurrence of 34S-depleted pyrite within Mn-carbonate zones dominated by 34S-enriched pyrite is evidence that closed-system conditions were intermittent and limited to local pore waters and did not involve entire sedimentary basins. Mn-carbonate precipitation may have occluded porosity in the surficial sediments, thus establishing an effective barrier to SO2-4 exchange with overlying seawater. Similar isotopic and mineralogic characteristics from both the Molango and TaoJiang deposits, widely separated in geologic time and

  20. PRECIPITATION OF PROTACTINIUM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R.L.

    1958-07-15

    An lmprovement in the separation of protactinium from aqueous nitric acid solutions is described. 1t covers the use of lead dioxide and tin dioxide as carrier precipitates for the protactinium. In carrying out the process, divalent lead or divalent tin is addcd to the solution and oxidized, causing formation of a carrier precipitate of lead dioxide or stannic oxide, respectively.

  1. Global Precipitation Measurement Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarbarzin, Art

    2010-01-01

    This poster presents an overview of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of satellites which are designed to measure the Earth's precipitation. It includes the schedule of launches for the various satellites in the constellation, and the coverage of the constellation, It also reviews the mission capabilities, and the mission science objectives.

  2. Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

  3. Global Precipitation Responses to Land Hydrological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2012-12-01

    Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models due to the additional supply of subsurface water. However, impacts of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation have received little attention. Through the coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere model (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model + Community Land Model) simulations, this study explores how groundwater representation in the model alters the precipitation spatiotemporal distributions. Results indicate that the effect of groundwater on the amount of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. Lower tropospheric water vapor increases due to the presence of groundwater in the model. The increased water vapor destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances the vertical upward velocity and precipitation in tropical convective regions. Precipitation, therefore, is inhibited in the descending branch of convection. As a result, an asymmetric dipole is produced over tropical land regions along the equator during the summer. This is analogous to the "rich-get-richer" mechanism proposed by previous studies. Moreover, groundwater also increased short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth and found to be a function of water table depth. Based on the spatial distributions of the one-month-lag autocorrelation coefficients as well as Hurst coefficients, air-land interaction can occur from short (several months) to long (several years) time scales. This study indicates the importance of land hydrological processes in the climate system and the necessity of including the subsurface processes in the global climate models.

  4. Analysis of a Small Vigorous Mesoscale Convective System in a Low-Shear Environment. Pt. 1; Formation, Echo Structure and Lightning Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knupp, Kevin; Geerts, Bart; Goodman, Steven J.

    1997-01-01

    The precipitation output was highly variable due to the transient nature of the intense convective elements. This result is attributed to the high Richardson number (175) of the environment, which is much higher than that of the typical MCS environment. The development of the stratiform precipitation was accomplished locally (in situ), and not be advection of from the convective region. In situ charging of the stratiform region is also supported by the observations.

  5. DAILY MAXIMA PRECIPITATIONS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS OF THE GOIÁS STATE, BRAZIL PRECIPITAÇÕES MÁXIMAS DIÁRIAS ESPERADAS PARA AS REGIÕES CENTRAL E SUDESTE DE GOIÁS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nori Paulo Griebeler

    2009-03-01

    (TR, for the Central and Southeast regions of the Goiás State, Brazil. Daily precipitation data of 36 rain gages were used, obtained from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA database, organized in an electronic worksheet and treated by the Kimball methodology for TR determination. The results indicated that differences between extreme values of maxima precipitations, for the same TR, exceeded 50% the lower precipitation values. This study also showed that the Northwest and Southeast regions of the studied area present large precipitation values, and the Central and East regions present lower values. These results emphasize the need for adoption of local values for planning hydraulic projects.

     

    KEY-WORDS: Rain; hidrology; return period.

  1. Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilbert, Justin; Betts, Alan K.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Beckage, Brian; Bomblies, Arne

    2015-03-01

    We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region-wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk.

  2. Precipitation interpolation in mountainous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolberg, Sjur

    2015-04-01

    Different precipitation interpolation techniques as well as external drift covariates are tested and compared in a 26000 km2 mountainous area in Norway, using daily data from 60 stations. The main method of assessment is cross-validation. Annual precipitation in the area varies from below 500 mm to more than 2000 mm. The data were corrected for wind-driven undercatch according to operational standards. While temporal evaluation produce seemingly acceptable at-station correlation values (on average around 0.6), the average daily spatial correlation is less than 0.1. Penalising also bias, Nash-Sutcliffe R2 values are negative for spatial correspondence, and around 0.15 for temporal. Despite largely violated assumptions, plain Kriging produces better results than simple inverse distance weighting. More surprisingly, the presumably 'worst-case' benchmark of no interpolation at all, simply averaging all 60 stations for each day, actually outperformed the standard interpolation techniques. For logistic reasons, high altitudes are under-represented in the gauge network. The possible effect of this was investigated by a) fitting a precipitation lapse rate as an external drift, and b) applying a linear model of orographic enhancement (Smith and Barstad, 2004). These techniques improved the results only marginally. The gauge density in the region is one for each 433 km2; higher than the overall density of the Norwegian national network. Admittedly the cross-validation technique reduces the gauge density, still the results suggest that we are far from able to provide hydrological models with adequate data for the main driving force.

  3. Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

  4. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

    2013-01-01

    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  5. Application of physical scaling towards downscaling climate model precipitation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaur, Abhishek; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2018-04-01

    Physical scaling (SP) method downscales climate model data to local or regional scales taking into consideration physical characteristics of the area under analysis. In this study, multiple SP method based models are tested for their effectiveness towards downscaling North American regional reanalysis (NARR) daily precipitation data. Model performance is compared with two state-of-the-art downscaling methods: statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and generalized linear modeling (GLM). The downscaled precipitation is evaluated with reference to recorded precipitation at 57 gauging stations located within the study region. The spatial and temporal robustness of the downscaling methods is evaluated using seven precipitation based indices. Results indicate that SP method-based models perform best in downscaling precipitation followed by GLM, followed by the SDSM model. Best performing models are thereafter used to downscale future precipitations made by three global circulation models (GCMs) following two emission scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 over the twenty-first century. The downscaled future precipitation projections indicate an increase in mean and maximum precipitation intensity as well as a decrease in the total number of dry days. Further an increase in the frequency of short (1-day), moderately long (2-4 day), and long (more than 5-day) precipitation events is projected.

  6. The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land mesoscale convective system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2014-11-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z - R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z - k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

  7. Precipitation-productivity Relation in Grassland in Northern China: Investigations at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is predicted to cause dramatic variability in precipitation regime, not only in terms of change in annual precipitation amount, but also in precipitation seasonal distribution and precipitation event characteristics (high frenquency extrem precipitation, larger but fewer precipitation events), which combined to influence productivity of grassland in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, combining remote sensing products with in-situ measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and gross primary productivity (GPP) data from eddy covariance system in grassland of northern China, we quantified the effects of spatio-temporal vairation in precipitation on productivity from local sites to region scale. We found that, for an individual precipitation event, the duration of GPP-response to the individual precipitation event and the maximum absolute GPP response induced by the individual precipitation event increased linearly with the size of precipitation events. Comparison of the productivity-precipitation relationships between multi-sites determined that the predominant characteristics of precipitation events (PEC) that affected GPP differed remarkably between the water-limited temperate steppe and the temperature-limited alpine meadow. The number of heavy precipitation events (>10 mm d-1) was the most important PEC to impact GPP in the temperate steppe through affecting soil moisture at different soil profiles, while precipitation interval was the factor that affected GPP most in the alpine meadow via its effects on temperature. At the region scale, shape of ANPP-precipitation relationship varies with distinct spatial scales, and besides annual precipitation, precipitation seasonal distribution also has comparable impacts on spatial variation in ANPP. Temporal variability in ANPP was lower at both the dry and wet end, and peaked at a precipitation of 243.1±3.5mm, which is the transition region between typical steppe and desert steppe

  8. [Stochastic characteristics of daily precipitation and its spatiotemporal difference over China based on information entropy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin Xin; Sang, Yan Fang; Xie, Ping; Liu, Chang Ming

    2018-04-01

    Daily precipitation process in China showed obvious randomness and spatiotemporal variation. It is important to accurately understand the influence of precipitation changes on control of flood and waterlogging disaster. Using the daily precipitation data measured at 520 stations in China during 1961-2013, we quantified the stochastic characteristics of daily precipitation over China based on the index of information entropy. Results showed that the randomness of daily precipitation in the southeast region were larger than that in the northwest region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of stochastic characteristics of precipitation was different at various grades. Stochastic characteri-stics of P 0 (precipitation at 0.1-10 mm) was large, but the spatial variation was not obvious. The stochastic characteristics of P 10 (precipitation at 10-25 mm) and P 25 (precipitation at 25-50 mm) were the largest and their spatial difference was obvious. P 50 (precipitation ≥50 mm) had the smallest stochastic characteristics and the most obviously spatial difference. Generally, the entropy values of precipitation obviously increased over the last five decades, indicating more significantly stochastic characteristics of precipitation (especially the obvious increase of heavy precipitation events) in most region over China under the scenarios of global climate change. Given that the spatial distribution and long-term trend of entropy values of daily precipitation could reflect thespatial distribution of stochastic characteristics of precipitation, our results could provide scientific basis for the control of flood and waterlogging disaster, the layout of agricultural planning, and the planning of ecological environment.

  9. Advantages of Using Microwave Satellite Soil Moisture over Gridded Precipitation Products and Land Surface Model Output in Assessing Regional Vegetation Water Availability and Growth Dynamics for a Lateral Inflow Receiving Landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, T.; McVicar, T.R.; Wang, G.J.; Chen, X.; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Liu, Y.; Shen, H.; Zhang, F.; Dolman, A.J.

    2016-01-01

    To improve the understanding of water-vegetation relationships, direct comparative studies assessing the utility of satellite remotely sensed soil moisture, gridded precipitation products, and land surface model output are needed. A case study was investigated for a water-limited, lateral inflow

  10. Magnetite precipitation and characterisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, A.; Garside, J.; Ivens, R.

    1988-06-01

    Magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) precipitation was investigated as a possible alternative treatment process to the conventional ferric hydroxide for removal of actinides from radioactive effluents. This offered the possibility of improved dewatering of filtered residues. Whilst a poor quality magnetite could be produced from deoxygenated ferrous/ferric solutions, all attempts to prepare magnetite from effluent simulates were unsuccessful. The failure was attributed to the presence of high nitrate and other interfering ions. (author)

  11. Development and Testing of a Life Cycle Model and a Parameterization of Thin Mid-level Stratiform Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krueger, Steven K.

    2008-03-03

    We used a cloud-resolving model (a detailed computer model of cloud systems) to evaluate and improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models used for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling. We also used observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, made at DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Climate Research Facility located in the Southern Great Plains (Kansas and Oklahoma) during Intensive Observation Periods to evaluate our detailed computer model as well as a single-column version of a global atmospheric model used for numerical weather prediction (the Global Forecast System of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction). This so-called Single-Column Modeling approach has proved to be a very effective method for testing the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models. The method relies on detailed observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, in an atmospheric column comparable in size to a grid column used in a global atmospheric model. The required observations are made by a combination of in situ and remote sensing instruments. One of the greatest problems facing mankind at the present is climate change. Part of the problem is our limited ability to predict the regional patterns of climate change. In order to increase this ability, uncertainties in climate models must be reduced. One of the greatest of these uncertainties is the representation of clouds and cloud processes. This project, and ARM taken as a whole, has helped to improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models.

  12. Precipitable water and vapor flux between Belem and Manaus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.

    1977-01-01

    The water vapor flux and precipitable water was computated over the natural Amazon forest in the stretch between Belem and Manaus for 1972. The atmospheric branch of hidrological cycle theory was applied and the most significant conclusions on an annual basis are: Atlantic Ocean water vapor contributes 52% to the regional precipitation and is significant the role played by local evapotranspiration in the precipitation in the area; there were signs of the phenomenon of water vapor recycling nearly throughout the year. Evapotranspiration contributes to 48% of the precipitations in the area studied. The real evapotranspiration estimated by this method was 1,000mm year - 1 [pt

  13. Sulphate deposition by precipitation into Lake Ontario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, R W; Whelpdale, D M

    1973-01-01

    Measurements of sulphate concentration in precipitation from individual snow storms of several hours duration in the western Lake Ontario region indicate that approximately 9-66 mg/M/sub 2/ of SO/sub 4//sup 2 -/ is being deposited into the lake per storm. This amount is up to several times more than daily average values over long periods found by other workers. Using a mean sulphate concentration of 4 mg/l and an annual accumulation of precipitation of 760 mm, the yearly sulphate deposition by precipitation is about 0.1% of the total mass of sulphate in the lake; however, more significantly, it is of the same order of magnitude as that discharged directly into the lake by industry.

  14. Precipitation in partially stabilized zirconia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bansal, G.K.

    1975-01-01

    Transmission electron microscopy was used to study the substructure of partially stabilized ZrO 2 (PSZ) samples, i.e., 2-phase systems containing both cubic and monoclinic modifications of zirconia, after various heat treatments. Monoclinic ZrO 2 exists as (1) isolated grains within the polycrystalline aggregate (a grain- boundary phase) and (2) small plate-like particles within cubic grains. These intragranular precipitates are believed to contribute to the useful properties of PSZ via a form of precipitation hardening. These precipitates initially form as tetragonal ZrO 2 , with a habit plane parallel to the brace 100 brace matrix planes. The orientation relations between the tetragonal precipitates and the cubic matrix are brace 100 brace/sub matrix/ 2 parallel brace 100 brace /sub precipitate/ or (001)/sub precipitate/ and broken bracket 100 broken bracket/sub matrix/ 2 parallel broken bracket 100 broken bracket/sub precipitate/ or [001]/sub precipitate/. (U.S.)

  15. Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) Publication is archived and available from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This publication contains hourly precipitation...

  16. Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.

  17. Evaluation of Uncertainty in Precipitation Datasets for New Mexico, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besha, A. A.; Steele, C. M.; Fernald, A.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change, population growth and other factors are endangering water availability and sustainability in semiarid/arid areas particularly in the southwestern United States. Wide coverage of spatial and temporal measurements of precipitation are key for regional water budget analysis and hydrological operations which themselves are valuable tool for water resource planning and management. Rain gauge measurements are usually reliable and accurate at a point. They measure rainfall continuously, but spatial sampling is limited. Ground based radar and satellite remotely sensed precipitation have wide spatial and temporal coverage. However, these measurements are indirect and subject to errors because of equipment, meteorological variability, the heterogeneity of the land surface itself and lack of regular recording. This study seeks to understand precipitation uncertainty and in doing so, lessen uncertainty propagation into hydrological applications and operations. We reviewed, compared and evaluated the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) precipitation products, NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) monthly precipitation dataset, PRISM (Parameter elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) data and data from individual climate stations including Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) and Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. Though not yet finalized, this study finds that the uncertainty within precipitation estimates datasets is influenced by regional topography, season, climate and precipitation rate. Ongoing work aims to further evaluate precipitation datasets based on the relative influence of these phenomena so that we can identify the optimum datasets for input to statewide water budget analysis.

  18. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  19. Implementation of an atmospheric sulfur scheme in the HIRLAM regional weather forecast model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekman, Annica [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    2000-02-01

    Sulfur chemistry has been implemented into the regional weather forecast model HIRLAM in order to simulate sulfur fields during specific weather situations. The model calculates concentrations of sulfur dioxide in air (SO{sub 2}(a)), sulfate in air (SO{sub 4}(a)), sulfate in cloud water (SO{sub 4}(aq)) and hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}). Modeled concentrations of SO{sub 2}(a), SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water are compared with observations for two weather situations, one winter case with an extensive stratiform cloud cover and one summer case with mostly convective clouds. A comparison of the weather forecast parameters precipitation, relative humidity, geopotential and temperature with observations is also performed. The results show that the model generally overpredicts the SO{sub 2}(a) concentration and underpredicts the SO{sub 4}(a) concentration. The agreement between modeled and observed SO{sub 4}(aq) in rain water is poor. Calculated turnover times are approximately 1 day for SO{sub 2}(a) and 2-2.5 days for SO{sub 4}(a). For SO{sub 2}(a) this is in accordance with earlier simulated global turnover times, but for SO{sub 4}(a) it is substantially lower. Several sensitivity simulations show that the fractional mean bias and root mean square error decreases, mainly for SO{sub 4}(a) and SO{sub 4}(aq), if an additional oxidant for converting SO{sub 2}(a) to SO{sub 4}(a) is included in the model. All weather forecast parameters, except precipitation, agree better with observations than the sulfur variables do. Wet scavenging is responsible for about half of the deposited sulfur and in addition, a major part of the sulfate production occurs through in-cloud oxidation. Hence, the distribution of clouds and precipitation must be better simulated by the weather forecast model in order to improve the agreement between observed and simulated sulfur concentrations.

  20. Detection of the relationship between peak temperature and extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhiyong, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Under the background of climate change and human activities, the characteristics and pattern of precipitation have changed significantly in many regions. As the political and cultural center of China, the structure and character of precipitation in Jingjinji District has varied dramatically in recent years. In this paper, the daily precipitation data throughout the period 1960-2013 are selected for analyzing the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation. The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of precipitation presents an increasing trend. Based on the precipitation data, the maximum, minimum and mean precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales is calculated respectively. The temporal and spatial variation of temperature is obtained by using statistical methods. The relationship between temperature and precipitation in different range is analyzed. The curve relates daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing at the low-medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. The relationship between extreme precipitation is stronger in downtown than that in suburbs.

  1. Precipitation Indices Low Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.

    2009-09-01

    Since 1995, KNMI published a series of books(1), presenting an annual reconstruction of weather and climate in the Low Countries, covering the period AD 763-present, or roughly, the last millennium. The reconstructions are based on the interpretation of documentary sources predominantly and comparison with other proxies and instrumental observations. The series also comprises a number of classifications. Amongst them annual classifications for winter and summer temperature and for winter and summer dryness-wetness. The classification of temperature have been reworked into peer reviewed (2) series (AD 1000-present) of seasonal temperatures and temperature indices, the so called LCT (Low Countries Temperature) series, now incorporated in the Millennium databases. Recently we started a study to convert the dryness-wetness classifications into a series of precipitation; the so called LCP (Low Countries Precipitation) series. A brief outline is given here of the applied methodology and preliminary results. The WMO definition for meteorological drought has been followed being that a period is called wet respectively dry when the amount of precipitation is considerable more respectively less than usual (normal). To gain a more quantitative insight for four locations, geographically spread over the Low Countries area (De Bilt, Vlissingen, Maastricht and Uccle), we analysed the statistics of daily precipitation series, covering the period 1900-present. This brought us to the following definition, valid for the Low Countries: A period is considered as (very) dry respectively (very) wet if over a continuous period of at least 60 days (~two months) cq 90 days (~three months) on at least two out of the four locations 50% less resp. 50% more than the normal amount for the location (based on the 1961-1990 normal period) has been measured. This results into the following classification into five drought classes hat could be applied to non instrumental observations: Very wet period

  2. Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the monthly and annual total precipitation records at stations operated by Turkish ... used in regional studies; the number of stations representing the area and the quality of the data are also very ..... Water Resources Management 22: 823–841.

  3. Precipitation variations recorded in Guliya ice core in the past 400 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Based on the Guliya ice core records, the precipitation in the past 400 years was retrieved. Its rela tions with other regions were also analyzed. The results demonstrated that there were two high-precipitation periods and two low-precipitation periods in Guliya ice core since 1571 AD. The average precipitation in the two high-precipitation periods was 42 mm (21%) higher than that in the two low-precipitation periods. The precipitation recorded in the Guliya ice core was consistent with that in Dunde ice core. The variation trends of precipitation in the Guliya ice core and the northern hemisphere are similar. During the extremely wet years in the northern hemisphere, the precipitation recorded in the Guliya ice core was two times the long-term average. However, the annual precipitation was 38% less than that of the long-term average in extremely dry years.

  4. A global satellite assisted precipitation climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, Andrew P.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Pedreros, Diego; Husak, Gregory J.; Peterson, P.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate

  5. The environmental influence on tropical cyclone precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Baik, Jong-Jin; Pierce, Harold F.

    1994-01-01

    The intensity, spatial, and temporal changes in precipitation were examined in three North Atlantic hurricanes during 1989 (Dean, Gabrielle, and Hugo) using precipitation estimates made from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) measurements. In addition, analyses from a barotropic hurricane forecast model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model were used to examine the relationship between the evolution of the precipitation in these tropical cyclones and external forcing. The external forcing parameters examined were (1) mean climatological sea surface temperatures, (2) vertical wind shear, (3) environmental tropospheric water vapor flux, and (4) upper-tropospheric eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence. The analyses revealed that (1) the SSM/I precipitation estimates were able to delineate and monitor convective ring cycles similar to those observed with land-based and aircraft radar and in situ measurements; (2) tropical cyclone intensification was observed to occur when these convective rings propagated into the inner core of these systems (within 111 km of the center) and when the precipitation rates increased; (3) tropical cyclone weakening was observed to occur when these inner-core convective rings dissipated; (4) the inward propagation of the outer convective rings coincided with the dissipation of the inner convective rings when they came within 55 km of each other; (5) in regions with the combined warm sea surface temperatures (above 26 C) and low vertical wind shear (less than 5 m/s), convective rings outside the region of strong lower-tropospheric inertial stability could be initiated by strong surges of tropospheric moisture, while convective rings inside the