WorldWideScience

Sample records for stratified societies agent-based

  1. Primary Prevention of Cervical Cancer: American Society of Clinical Oncology Resource-Stratified Guideline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvina Arrossi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To provide resource-stratified (four tiers, evidence-based recommendations on the primary prevention of cervical cancer globally. Methods: The American Society of Clinical Oncology convened a multidisciplinary, multinational panel of oncology, obstetrics/gynecology, public health, cancer control, epidemiology/biostatistics, health economics, behavioral/implementation science, and patient advocacy experts. The Expert Panel reviewed existing guidelines and conducted a modified ADAPTE process and a formal consensus-based process with additional experts (consensus ratings group for one round of formal ratings. Results: Existing sets of guidelines from five guideline developers were identified and reviewed; adapted recommendations formed the evidence base. Five systematic reviews, along with cost-effectiveness analyses, provided evidence to inform the formal consensus process, which resulted in agreement of ≥ 75%. Recommendations: In all resource settings, two doses of human papillomavirus vaccine are recommended for girls age 9 to 14 years, with an interval of at least 6 months and possibly up to 12 to 15 months. Individuals with HIV positivity should receive three doses. Maximal and enhanced settings: if girls are age ≥ 15 years and received their first dose before age 15 years, they may complete the series; if no doses were received before age 15 years, three doses should be administered; in both scenarios, vaccination may be through age 26 years. Limited and basic settings: if sufficient resources remain after vaccinating girls age 9 to 14 years, girls who received one dose may receive additional doses between age 15 and 26 years. Maximal, enhanced, and limited settings: if ≥ 50% coverage in the priority female target population, sufficient resources, and cost effectiveness, boys may be vaccinated to prevent other noncervical human papillomavirus–related cancers and diseases. Basic settings: vaccinating boys is not recommended

  2. Primary Prevention of Cervical Cancer: American Society of Clinical Oncology Resource-Stratified Guideline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrossi, Silvina; Temin, Sarah; Garland, Suzanne; Eckert, Linda O'Neal; Bhatla, Neerja; Castellsagué, Xavier; Alkaff, Sharifa Ezat; Felder, Tamika; Hammouda, Doudja; Konno, Ryo; Lopes, Gilberto; Mugisha, Emmanuel; Murillo, Rául; Scarinci, Isabel C; Stanley, Margaret; Tsu, Vivien; Wheeler, Cosette M; Adewole, Isaac Folorunso; de Sanjosé, Silvia

    2017-10-01

    To provide resource-stratified (four tiers), evidence-based recommendations on the primary prevention of cervical cancer globally. The American Society of Clinical Oncology convened a multidisciplinary, multinational panel of oncology, obstetrics/gynecology, public health, cancer control, epidemiology/biostatistics, health economics, behavioral/implementation science, and patient advocacy experts. The Expert Panel reviewed existing guidelines and conducted a modified ADAPTE process and a formal consensus-based process with additional experts (consensus ratings group) for one round of formal ratings. Existing sets of guidelines from five guideline developers were identified and reviewed; adapted recommendations formed the evidence base. Five systematic reviews, along with cost-effectiveness analyses, provided evidence to inform the formal consensus process, which resulted in agreement of ≥ 75%. In all resource settings, two doses of human papillomavirus vaccine are recommended for girls age 9 to 14 years, with an interval of at least 6 months and possibly up to 12 to 15 months. Individuals with HIV positivity should receive three doses. Maximal and enhanced settings: if girls are age ≥ 15 years and received their first dose before age 15 years, they may complete the series; if no doses were received before age 15 years, three doses should be administered; in both scenarios, vaccination may be through age 26 years. Limited and basic settings: if sufficient resources remain after vaccinating girls age 9 to 14 years, girls who received one dose may receive additional doses between age 15 and 26 years. Maximal, enhanced, and limited settings: if ≥ 50% coverage in the priority female target population, sufficient resources, and cost effectiveness, boys may be vaccinated to prevent other noncervical human papillomavirus-related cancers and diseases. Basic settings: vaccinating boys is not recommended. It is the view of the American Society of Clinical Oncology that

  3. Economic exchanges in a stratified society: End of the middle class?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laguna, M.F.; Risau Gusman, S.; Iglesias, J.R.

    2005-05-01

    We study the effect of the social stratification on the wealth distribution on a system of interacting economic agents that are constrained to interact only within their own economic class. The economical mobility of the agents is related to its success in exchange transactions.Different wealth distributions are obtained as a function of the width of the economic class. We and a range of widths in which the society is divided into two classes separated by a deep gap that prevents further exchange between poor and rich agents. As a consequence, the middle wealth class is eliminated. The high values of the Gini indices obtained in these cases indicate a highly unequal society. On the other hand, lower and higher widths induce lower Gini indices and a fairer wealth distribution. (author)

  4. A model for warfare in stratified small-scale societies: The effect of within-group inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, Sagar; van Schaik, Carel

    2017-01-01

    In order to predict the features of non-raiding human warfare in small-scale, socially stratified societies, we study a coalitionary model of war that assumes that individuals participate voluntarily because their decisions serve to maximize fitness. Individual males join the coalition if war results in a net economic and thus fitness benefit. Within the model, viable offensive war ensues if the attacking coalition of males can overpower the defending coalition. We assume that the two groups will eventually fuse after a victory, with ranks arranged according to the fighting abilities of all males and that the new group will adopt the winning group’s skew in fitness payoffs. We ask whether asymmetries in skew, group size and the amount of resources controlled by a group affect the likelihood of successful war. The model shows, other things being equal, that (i) egalitarian groups are more likely to defeat their more despotic enemies, even when these are stronger, (ii) defection to enemy groups will be rare, unless the attacked group is far more despotic than the attacking one, and (iii) genocidal war is likely under a variety of conditions, in particular when the group under attack is more egalitarian. This simple optimality model accords with several empirically observed correlations in human warfare. Its success underlines the important role of egalitarianism in warfare. PMID:29228014

  5. Agent-Based Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Jędrzejowicz, Piotr; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    This volume presents a collection of original research works by leading specialists focusing on novel and promising approaches in which the multi-agent system paradigm is used to support, enhance or replace traditional approaches to solving difficult optimization problems. The editors have invited several well-known specialists to present their solutions, tools, and models falling under the common denominator of the agent-based optimization. The book consists of eight chapters covering examples of application of the multi-agent paradigm and respective customized tools to solve  difficult optimization problems arising in different areas such as machine learning, scheduling, transportation and, more generally, distributed and cooperative problem solving.

  6. Agent Based Individual Traffic guidance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wanscher, Jørgen Bundgaard

    2004-01-01

    When working with traffic planning or guidance it is common practice to view the vehicles as a combined mass. >From this models are employed to specify the vehicle supply and demand for each region. As the models are complex and the calculations are equally demanding the regions and the detail...... of the road network is aggregated. As a result the calculations reveal only what the mass of vehicles are doing and not what a single vehicle is doing. This is the crucial difference to ABIT (Agent Based Individual Trafficguidance). ABIT is based on the fact that information on the destination of each vehicle...

  7. Agent Based Reasoning in Multilevel Flow Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin

    2012-01-01

    to launch the MFM Workbench into an agent based environment, which can complement disadvantages of the original software. The agent-based MFM Workbench is centered on a concept called “Blackboard System” and use an event based mechanism to arrange the reasoning tasks. This design will support the new...

  8. Agent-based modeling of sustainable behaviors

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez-Maroño, Noelia; Fontenla-Romero, Oscar; Polhill, J; Craig, Tony; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan

    2017-01-01

    Using the O.D.D. (Overview, Design concepts, Detail) protocol, this title explores the role of agent-based modeling in predicting the feasibility of various approaches to sustainability. The chapters incorporated in this volume consist of real case studies to illustrate the utility of agent-based modeling and complexity theory in discovering a path to more efficient and sustainable lifestyles. The topics covered within include: households' attitudes toward recycling, designing decision trees for representing sustainable behaviors, negotiation-based parking allocation, auction-based traffic signal control, and others. This selection of papers will be of interest to social scientists who wish to learn more about agent-based modeling as well as experts in the field of agent-based modeling.

  9. Validation of Agent Based Distillation Movement Algorithms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gill, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Agent based distillations (ABD) are low-resolution abstract models, which can be used to explore questions associated with land combat operations in a short period of time Movement of agents within the EINSTein and MANA ABDs...

  10. Three essays in agent-based macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Canzian, Giulia

    2009-01-01

    The dissertation is aimed at offering an insight into the agent-based methodology and its possible application to the macroeconomic analysis. Relying on this methodology, I deal with three different issues concerning heterogeneity of economic agents, bounded rationality and interaction. Specifically, the first chapter is devoted to describe the distinctive characteristics of agent-based economics and its advantages-disadvantages. In the second chapter I propose a credit market framework c...

  11. Agent-based modeling and network dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Namatame, Akira

    2016-01-01

    The book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The book begins with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling’s segregation model and Axelrod’s spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The book also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. The book reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the gi...

  12. Agent-based simulation in entrepreneurship research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, S.-J.S.; Chandra, Y.

    2009-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) has wide applications in natural and social sciences yet it has not been widely applied in entrepreneurship research. We discuss the nature of ABM, its position among conventional methodologies and then offer a roadmap for developing, testing and extending theories of

  13. Agent-based modelling of cholera diffusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella; Doldersum, Tom; Useya, Juliana; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper introduces a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model for micro-scale cholera diffusion. The model simulates both an environmental reservoir of naturally occurring V.cholerae bacteria and hyperinfectious V. cholerae. Objective of the research is to test if runoff from open refuse

  14. Agent-based simulation of animal behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.M. Jonker (Catholijn); J. Treur

    1998-01-01

    textabstract In this paper it is shown how animal behaviour can be simulated in an agent-based manner. Different models are shown for different types of behaviour, varying from purely reactive behaviour to pro-active, social and adaptive behaviour. The compositional development method for

  15. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course

  16. Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, J. S.

    2004-12-01

    Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in

  17. Agent-Based Data Integration Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Faber

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Combining data from diverse, heterogeneous sources while facilitating a unified access to it is an important (albeit difficult task. There are various possibilities of performing it. In this publication, we propose and describe an agent-based framework dedicated to acquiring and processing distributed, heterogeneous data collected from diverse sources (e.g., the Internet, external software, relational, and document databases. Using this multi-agent-based approach in the aspects of the general architecture (the organization and management of the framework, we create a proof-of-concept implementation. The approach is presented using a sample scenario in which the system is used to search for personal and professional profiles of scientists.

  18. Agent-Based Computing: Promise and Perils

    OpenAIRE

    Jennings, N. R.

    1999-01-01

    Agent-based computing represents an exciting new synthesis both for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and, more genrally, Computer Science. It has the potential to significantly improve the theory and practice of modelling, designing and implementing complex systems. Yet, to date, there has been little systematic analysis of what makes an agent such an appealing and powerful conceptual model. Moreover, even less effort has been devoted to exploring the inherent disadvantages that stem from adoptin...

  19. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course of this project two workshops were organized. At these workshops, a wide range of experts, both ABM experts and domain experts, worked on several potential applications of ABM. The results and ins...

  20. Agent-Based Modeling in Systems Pharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, J; Butler, J; Alden, K; Read, M; Kumar, V; Cucurull-Sanchez, L; Timmis, J; Coles, M

    2015-11-01

    Modeling and simulation (M&S) techniques provide a platform for knowledge integration and hypothesis testing to gain insights into biological systems that would not be possible a priori. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an M&S technique that focuses on describing individual components rather than homogenous populations. This tutorial introduces ABM to systems pharmacologists, using relevant case studies to highlight how ABM-specific strengths have yielded success in the area of preclinical mechanistic modeling.

  1. Improving Agent Based Modeling of Critical Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Till

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent Based Modeling (ABM is a powerful method that has been used to simulate potential critical incidents in the infrastructure and built environments. This paper will discuss the modeling of some critical incidents currently simulated using ABM and how they may be expanded and improved by using better physiological modeling, psychological modeling, modeling the actions of interveners, introducing Geographic Information Systems (GIS and open source models.

  2. Assurance in Agent-Based Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilliom, Laura R.; Goldsmith, Steven Y.

    1999-05-10

    Our vision of the future of information systems is one that includes engineered collectives of software agents which are situated in an environment over years and which increasingly improve the performance of the overall system of which they are a part. At a minimum, the movement of agent and multi-agent technology into National Security applications, including their use in information assurance, is apparent today. The use of deliberative, autonomous agents in high-consequence/high-security applications will require a commensurate level of protection and confidence in the predictability of system-level behavior. At Sandia National Laboratories, we have defined and are addressing a research agenda that integrates the surety (safety, security, and reliability) into agent-based systems at a deep level. Surety is addressed at multiple levels: The integrity of individual agents must be protected by addressing potential failure modes and vulnerabilities to malevolent threats. Providing for the surety of the collective requires attention to communications surety issues and mechanisms for identifying and working with trusted collaborators. At the highest level, using agent-based collectives within a large-scale distributed system requires the development of principled design methods to deliver the desired emergent performance or surety characteristics. This position paper will outline the research directions underway at Sandia, will discuss relevant work being performed elsewhere, and will report progress to date toward assurance in agent-based systems.

  3. Assurance in Agent-Based Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilliom, Laura R.; Goldsmith, Steven Y.

    1999-01-01

    Our vision of the future of information systems is one that includes engineered collectives of software agents which are situated in an environment over years and which increasingly improve the performance of the overall system of which they are a part. At a minimum, the movement of agent and multi-agent technology into National Security applications, including their use in information assurance, is apparent today. The use of deliberative, autonomous agents in high-consequence/high-security applications will require a commensurate level of protection and confidence in the predictability of system-level behavior. At Sandia National Laboratories, we have defined and are addressing a research agenda that integrates the surety (safety, security, and reliability) into agent-based systems at a deep level. Surety is addressed at multiple levels: The integrity of individual agents must be protected by addressing potential failure modes and vulnerabilities to malevolent threats. Providing for the surety of the collective requires attention to communications surety issues and mechanisms for identifying and working with trusted collaborators. At the highest level, using agent-based collectives within a large-scale distributed system requires the development of principled design methods to deliver the desired emergent performance or surety characteristics. This position paper will outline the research directions underway at Sandia, will discuss relevant work being performed elsewhere, and will report progress to date toward assurance in agent-based systems

  4. Multiscale agent-based cancer modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Le; Wang, Zhihui; Sagotsky, Jonathan A; Deisboeck, Thomas S

    2009-04-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an in silico technique that is being used in a variety of research areas such as in social sciences, economics and increasingly in biomedicine as an interdisciplinary tool to study the dynamics of complex systems. Here, we describe its applicability to integrative tumor biology research by introducing a multi-scale tumor modeling platform that understands brain cancer as a complex dynamic biosystem. We summarize significant findings of this work, and discuss both challenges and future directions for ABM in the field of cancer research.

  5. Agent-based modelling in synthetic biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorochowski, Thomas E

    2016-11-30

    Biological systems exhibit complex behaviours that emerge at many different levels of organization. These span the regulation of gene expression within single cells to the use of quorum sensing to co-ordinate the action of entire bacterial colonies. Synthetic biology aims to make the engineering of biology easier, offering an opportunity to control natural systems and develop new synthetic systems with useful prescribed behaviours. However, in many cases, it is not understood how individual cells should be programmed to ensure the emergence of a required collective behaviour. Agent-based modelling aims to tackle this problem, offering a framework in which to simulate such systems and explore cellular design rules. In this article, I review the use of agent-based models in synthetic biology, outline the available computational tools, and provide details on recently engineered biological systems that are amenable to this approach. I further highlight the challenges facing this methodology and some of the potential future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).

  6. An Agent-Based Monetary Production Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2006-01-01

    An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable......An Agent-Based Simulation Model Programmed in Objective Borland Pascal. Program and source code is downloadable...

  7. Agent Based Modeling as an Educational Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, J. H.; Johnson, R.; Castillo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Motivation is a key element in high school education. One way to improve motivation and provide content, while helping address critical thinking and problem solving skills, is to have students build and study agent based models in the classroom. This activity visually connects concepts with their applied mathematical representation. "Engaging students in constructing models may provide a bridge between frequently disconnected conceptual and mathematical forms of knowledge." (Levy and Wilensky, 2011) We wanted to discover the feasibility of implementing a model based curriculum in the classroom given current and anticipated core and content standards.; Simulation using California GIS data ; Simulation of high school student lunch popularity using aerial photograph on top of terrain value map.

  8. Agent-Based Models in Social Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quang, Le Anh; Jung, Nam; Cho, Eun Sung; Choi, Jae Han; Lee, Jae Woo

    2018-06-01

    We review the agent-based models (ABM) on social physics including econophysics. The ABM consists of agent, system space, and external environment. The agent is autonomous and decides his/her behavior by interacting with the neighbors or the external environment with the rules of behavior. Agents are irrational because they have only limited information when they make decisions. They adapt using learning from past memories. Agents have various attributes and are heterogeneous. ABM is a non-equilibrium complex system that exhibits various emergence phenomena. The social complexity ABM describes human behavioral characteristics. In ABMs of econophysics, we introduce the Sugarscape model and the artificial market models. We review minority games and majority games in ABMs of game theory. Social flow ABM introduces crowding, evacuation, traffic congestion, and pedestrian dynamics. We also review ABM for opinion dynamics and voter model. We discuss features and advantages and disadvantages of Netlogo, Repast, Swarm, and Mason, which are representative platforms for implementing ABM.

  9. Econophysics of agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim

    2014-01-01

    The primary goal of this book is to present the research findings and conclusions of physicists, economists, mathematicians and financial engineers working in the field of "Econophysics" who have undertaken agent-based modelling, comparison with empirical studies and related investigations. Most standard economic models assume the existence of the representative agent, who is “perfectly rational” and applies the utility maximization principle when taking action. One reason for this is the desire to keep models mathematically tractable: no tools are available to economists for solving non-linear models of heterogeneous adaptive agents without explicit optimization. In contrast, multi-agent models, which originated from statistical physics considerations, allow us to go beyond the prototype theories of traditional economics involving the representative agent. This book is based on the Econophys-Kolkata VII Workshop, at which many such modelling efforts were presented. In the book, leading researchers in the...

  10. Large-scale agent-based social simulation : A study on epidemic prediction and control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, M.

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale agent-based social simulation is gradually proving to be a versatile methodological approach for studying human societies, which could make contributions from policy making in social science, to distributed artificial intelligence and agent technology in computer science, and to theory

  11. Agent-based models for higher-order theory of mind

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Weerd, Harmen; Verbrugge, Rineke; Verheij, Bart; Kamiński, Bogumił; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Agent-based models are a powerful tool for explaining the emergence of social phenomena in a society. In such models, individual agents typically have little cognitive ability. In this paper, we model agents with the cognitive ability to make use of theory of mind. People use this ability to reason

  12. Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm

    2014-01-01

    As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior

  13. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  14. Agent Based Model of Livestock Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miron, D. J.; Emelyanova, I. V.; Donald, G. E.; Garner, G. M.

    The modelling of livestock movements within Australia is of national importance for the purposes of the management and control of exotic disease spread, infrastructure development and the economic forecasting of livestock markets. In this paper an agent based model for the forecasting of livestock movements is presented. This models livestock movements from farm to farm through a saleyard. The decision of farmers to sell or buy cattle is often complex and involves many factors such as climate forecast, commodity prices, the type of farm enterprise, the number of animals available and associated off-shore effects. In this model the farm agent's intelligence is implemented using a fuzzy decision tree that utilises two of these factors. These two factors are the livestock price fetched at the last sale and the number of stock on the farm. On each iteration of the model farms choose either to buy, sell or abstain from the market thus creating an artificial supply and demand. The buyers and sellers then congregate at the saleyard where livestock are auctioned using a second price sealed bid. The price time series output by the model exhibits properties similar to those found in real livestock markets.

  15. Agent based modeling of energy networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new approach for energy network modeling is designed and tested. • The agent-based approach is general and no technology dependent. • The models can be easily extended. • The range of applications encompasses from small to large energy infrastructures. - Abstract: Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed

  16. Towards Agent-Based Model Specification in Smart Grid: A Cognitive Agent-based Computing Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Akram, Waseem; Niazi, Muaz A.; Iantovics, Laszlo Barna

    2017-01-01

    A smart grid can be considered as a complex network where each node represents a generation unit or a consumer. Whereas links can be used to represent transmission lines. One way to study complex systems is by using the agent-based modeling (ABM) paradigm. An ABM is a way of representing a complex system of autonomous agents interacting with each other. Previously, a number of studies have been presented in the smart grid domain making use of the ABM paradigm. However, to the best of our know...

  17. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanidou, E [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany); Zschischang, E [HSH Nord Bank, Portfolio Mngmt. and Inv., Martensdamm 6, D-24103 Kiel (Germany); Stauffer, D [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Koeln (Germany); Lux, T [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

    2007-03-15

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we

  18. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

    2007-03-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  19. Agent-based models of financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanidou, E; Zschischang, E; Stauffer, D; Lux, T

    2007-01-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  20. Agent Programming Languages and Logics in Agent-Based Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, John

    2018-01-01

    and social behavior, and work on verification. Agent-based simulation is an approach for simulation that also uses the notion of agents. Although agent programming languages and logics are much less used in agent-based simulation, there are successful examples with agents designed according to the BDI...

  1. An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinder, Jonathan P.

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

  2. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

  3. Smart Agent Based Mobile Tutoring and Querying System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh Sankaranarayanan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available With our busy schedules today and the rising cost of education there is a need to find a convenient and cost effective means of maximizing our educational/training experiences. New trends in the delivery/access of information are becoming more technology based in all areas of society with education being no exception. The ubiquitous use of mobile devices has led to a boom in m-commerce. Mobile devices provide many services in commercial environments such as mobile banking, mobile purchasing, mobile learning, etc. It is therefore fitting that we seek to use mobile devices as a platform in delivering our convenient and cost effective solution. The proposed agent based Mobile tutoring system seeks to provide a student with a rich learning experience that will provide them with the relevant reading material based on their stage of development which allows them to move at their own pace. The system will allow the user to be able to ask certain questions and get explanations as if they were interacting with a human tutor but with the added benefit of being able to do this anytime in any location via their mobile phone.

  4. Agent-based simulation for human-induced hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulleit, William M; Drewek, Matthew W

    2011-02-01

    Terrorism could be treated as a hazard for design purposes. For instance, the terrorist hazard could be analyzed in a manner similar to the way that seismic hazard is handled. No matter how terrorism is dealt with in the design of systems, the need for predictions of the frequency and magnitude of the hazard will be required. And, if the human-induced hazard is to be designed for in a manner analogous to natural hazards, then the predictions should be probabilistic in nature. The model described in this article is a prototype model that used agent-based modeling (ABM) to analyze terrorist attacks. The basic approach in this article of using ABM to model human-induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power-law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, such as transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABM is a viable approach to modeling socioeconomic-based infrastructure systems for engineering design to deal with human-induced hazards. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Agent-Based Collaborative Traffic Flow Management, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose agent-based game-theoretic approaches for simulation of strategies involved in multi-objective collaborative traffic flow management (CTFM). Intelligent...

  6. Teamcore Project Control of Agent-Based Systems (COABS) Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tambe, Milind

    2002-01-01

    An increasing number of agent-based systems now operate in complex dynamic environments, such as disaster rescue missions, monitoring/surveillance tasks, enterprise integration, and education/training environments...

  7. Use of agent based simulation for traffic safety assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of an agent based Computational Building Simulation (CBS) tool, termed KRONOS that is being used to work on advanced research questions such as traffic safety assessment and user behaviour in buildings...

  8. An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D

    2017-11-17

    Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Efficient Allocation of Resources for Defense of Spatially Distributed Networks Using Agent-Based Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroshl, William M; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas A

    2015-09-01

    This article presents ongoing research that focuses on efficient allocation of defense resources to minimize the damage inflicted on a spatially distributed physical network such as a pipeline, water system, or power distribution system from an attack by an active adversary, recognizing the fundamental difference between preparing for natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or even accidental systems failures and the problem of allocating resources to defend against an opponent who is aware of, and anticipating, the defender's efforts to mitigate the threat. Our approach is to utilize a combination of integer programming and agent-based modeling to allocate the defensive resources. We conceptualize the problem as a Stackelberg "leader follower" game where the defender first places his assets to defend key areas of the network, and the attacker then seeks to inflict the maximum damage possible within the constraints of resources and network structure. The criticality of arcs in the network is estimated by a deterministic network interdiction formulation, which then informs an evolutionary agent-based simulation. The evolutionary agent-based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for attackers and defenders that results in evolutionary stable strategies, where actions by either side alone cannot increase its share of victories. We demonstrate these techniques on an example network, comparing the evolutionary agent-based results to a more traditional, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach. Our results show that the agent-based approach results in a greater percentage of defender victories than does the PRA-based approach. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. The stratified Boycott effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Tom; Blanchette, Francois; Bush, John W. M.

    2005-04-01

    We present the results of an experimental investigation of the flows generated by monodisperse particles settling at low Reynolds number in a stably stratified ambient with an inclined sidewall. In this configuration, upwelling beneath the inclined wall associated with the Boycott effect is opposed by the ambient density stratification. The evolution of the system is determined by the relative magnitudes of the container depth, h, and the neutral buoyancy height, hn = c0(ρp-ρf)/|dρ/dz|, where c0 is the particle concentration, ρp the particle density, ρf the mean fluid density and dρ/dz Boycott layer transports dense fluid from the bottom to the top of the system; subsequently, the upper clear layer of dense saline fluid is mixed by convection. For sufficiently strong stratification, h > hn, layering occurs. The lowermost layer is created by clear fluid transported from the base to its neutral buoyancy height, and has a vertical extent hn; subsequently, smaller overlying layers develop. Within each layer, convection erodes the initially linear density gradient, generating a step-like density profile throughout the system that persists after all the particles have settled. Particles are transported across the discrete density jumps between layers by plumes of particle-laden fluid.

  11. Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

    The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

  12. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  13. A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

    2008-11-21

    Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

  14. Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalii Nikolaevich Makoveev

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to study the essence of agent-based modeling, defining its features and prospects of usage in the modeling of socio-economic development of territories and systematization of domestic and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. Information basis for the research comprised the works on agent-based modeling by Russian and foreign scholars, especially articles and monographs of scientists of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, papers presented in an international journal The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation and other sources available on the Internet. The article presents theoretical and methodological foundations of agent-based models of territories. The author considers the concepts of “agent-based modeling” and “agent” and defines specifics of agent-based models in comparison with other types of simulation modeling. The paper also describes major stages of building agent-based models for territories and considers qualification requirements to a modeling subject. Furthermore, it reviews Russian and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. It has been determined that most of them deal with the modeling of spatial, territorial and socio-economic development of regions, cities and municipal entities. Agents in such models are presented by households, residents of regions and cities, enterprises and organizations operating in their territory, and public administration authorities (their inclusion in the model makes it possible to test different options of management impacts on territories by changing the model parameters, for instance, the introduction of certain prohibitions and quotas, issuance of permits, distribution of financial resources, etc.. At the end of the paper, the author formulates major conclusions. He shows the complexity faced

  15. Agent-Based Modeling: A Powerful Tool for Tourism Researchers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nicholls, Sarah; Amelung, B.; Student, Jillian

    2017-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actors, and of simulating the multiple potential outcomes of these agents’ behaviors and interactions in the form of a range of alternatives or futures. Despite the complexity of the tourism system, and the

  16. A technology path to tactical agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Alex; Hanratty, Timothy P.

    2017-05-01

    Wargaming is a process of thinking through and visualizing events that could occur during a possible course of action. Over the past 200 years, wargaming has matured into a set of formalized processes. One area of growing interest is the application of agent-based modeling. Agent-based modeling and its additional supporting technologies has potential to introduce a third-generation wargaming capability to the Army, creating a positive overmatch decision-making capability. In its simplest form, agent-based modeling is a computational technique that helps the modeler understand and simulate how the "whole of a system" responds to change over time. It provides a decentralized method of looking at situations where individual agents are instantiated within an environment, interact with each other, and empowered to make their own decisions. However, this technology is not without its own risks and limitations. This paper explores a technology roadmap, identifying research topics that could realize agent-based modeling within a tactical wargaming context.

  17. Agent-based Security and Efficiency Estimation in Airport Terminals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, S.A.M.

    We investigate the use of an Agent-based framework to identify and quantify the relationship between security and efficiency within airport terminals. In this framework, we define a novel Security Risk Assessment methodology that explicitly models attacker and defender behavior in a security

  18. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets : a literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, F.; Genoese, M.; Genoese, M.; Most, D.

    2007-01-01

    The electricity sector in Europe and North America is undergoing considerable changes as a result of deregulation, issues related to climate change, and the integration of renewable resources within the electricity grid. This article reviewed agent-based simulation methods of analyzing electricity markets. The paper provided an analysis of research currently being conducted on electricity market designs and examined methods of modelling agent decisions. Methods of coupling long term and short term decisions were also reviewed. Issues related to single and multiple market analysis methods were discussed, as well as different approaches to integrating agent-based models with models of other commodities. The integration of transmission constraints within agent-based models was also discussed, and methods of measuring market efficiency were evaluated. Other topics examined in the paper included approaches to integrating investment decisions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) trading, and renewable support schemes. It was concluded that agent-based models serve as a test bed for the electricity sector, and will help to provide insights for future policy decisions. 74 refs., 6 figs

  19. Structuring Qualitative Data for Agent-Based Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghorbani, Amineh; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.; Schrauwen, Noortje

    2015-01-01

    Using ethnography to build agent-based models may result in more empirically grounded simulations. Our study on innovation practice and culture in the Westland horticulture sector served to explore what information and data from ethnographic analysis could be used in models and how. MAIA, a

  20. An agent-based model for diffusion of electric vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kangur, Ayla; Jager, Wander; Verbrugge, Rineke; Bockarjova, Marija

    2017-01-01

    The transition from fuel cars to electric cars is a large-scale process involving many interactions between consumers and other stakeholders over decades. To explore how policies may interact with consumer behavior over such a long time period, we developed an agent-based social simulation model. In

  1. Agent-based Modeling Methodology for Analyzing Weapons Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    technique involve model structure, system representation and the degree of validity, coupled with the simplicity, of the overall model. ABM is best suited... system representation of the air combat system . We feel that a simulation model that combines ABM with equation-based representation of weapons and...AGENT-BASED MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYZING WEAPONS SYSTEMS THESIS Casey D. Connors, Major, USA

  2. A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kremmydas, Dimitris; Athanasiadis, I.N.; Rozakis, Stelios

    2018-01-01

    Farm level scale policy analysis is receiving increased attention due to a changing agricultural policy orientation. Agent based models (ABM) are farm level models that have appeared in the end of 1990's, having several differences from traditional farm level models, like the consideration of

  3. Agent-based services for B2B electronic commerce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Elizabeth; Ivezic, Nenad; Rhodes, Tom; Peng, Yun

    2000-12-01

    The potential of agent-based systems has not been realized yet, in part, because of the lack of understanding of how the agent technology supports industrial needs and emerging standards. The area of business-to-business electronic commerce (b2b e-commerce) is one of the most rapidly developing sectors of industry with huge impact on manufacturing practices. In this paper, we investigate the current state of agent technology and the feasibility of applying agent-based computing to b2b e-commerce in the circuit board manufacturing sector. We identify critical tasks and opportunities in the b2b e-commerce area where agent-based services can best be deployed. We describe an implemented agent-based prototype system to facilitate the bidding process for printed circuit board manufacturing and assembly. These activities are taking place within the Internet Commerce for Manufacturing (ICM) project, the NIST- sponsored project working with industry to create an environment where small manufacturers of mechanical and electronic components may participate competitively in virtual enterprises that manufacture printed circuit assemblies.

  4. Agent-based transportation planning compared with scheduling heuristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mes, Martijn R.K.; van der Heijden, Matthijs C.; van Harten, Aart

    2004-01-01

    Here we consider the problem of dynamically assigning vehicles to transportation orders that have di¤erent time windows and should be handled in real time. We introduce a new agent-based system for the planning and scheduling of these transportation networks. Intelligent vehicle agents schedule

  5. Solution of partial differential equations by agent-based simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szilagyi, Miklos N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this short note is to demonstrate that partial differential equations can be quickly solved by agent-based simulation with high accuracy. There is no need for the solution of large systems of algebraic equations. This method is especially useful for quick determination of potential distributions and demonstration purposes in teaching electromagnetism. (letters and comments)

  6. An agent-based architecture for multimodal interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

    In this paper, an executable generic process model is proposed for combined verbal and non-verbal communication processes and their interaction. The agent-based architecture can be used to create multimodal interaction. The generic process model has been designed, implemented and used to simulate

  7. An agent-based architecture for multimodal interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Wijngaards, W.C.A.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, an executable generic process model is proposed for combined verbal and non-verbal communication processes and their interaction. The agent-based architecture can be used to create multimodal interaction. The generic process model has been designed, implemented and used to simulate

  8. Dissemination of Cultural Norms and Values: Agent-Based Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Andreevich Degterev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article shows how agent-based modeling allows us to explore the mechanisms of the dissemination of cultural norms and values both within one country and in the whole world. In recent years, this type of simulation is particularly prevalent in the analysis of international relations, becoming more popular than the system dynamics and discrete event simulation. The use of agent-based modeling in the analysis of international relations is connected with the agent-structure problem in international relations. Structure and agents act as interdependent and dynamically changing in the process of interaction between entities. Agent-structure interaction could be modeled by means of the theory of complex adaptive systems with the use of agent-based modeling techniques. One of the first examples of the use of agent-based modeling in political science is a model of racial segregation T. Shellinga. On the basis of this model, the author shows how the change in behavioral patterns at micro-level impacts on the macro-level. Patterns are changing due to the dynamics of cultural norms and values, formed by mass-media and other social institutes. The author shows the main areas of modern application of agent-based modeling in international studies including the analysis of ethnic conflicts, the formation of international coalitions. Particular attention is paid to Robert Axelrod approach based on the use of genetic algorithms to the spread of cultural norms and values. Agent-based modeling shows how to how to create such conditions that the norms that originally are not shared by a significant part of the population, eventually spread everywhere. Practical application of these algorithms is shown by the author of the article on the example of the situation in Ukraine in 2015-2016. The article also reveals the mechanisms of international spread of cultural norms and values. The main think-tanks using agent-based modeling in international studies are

  9. Genetic Algorithms for Agent-Based Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May Permann

    2007-03-01

    Today’s society relies greatly upon an array of complex national and international infrastructure networks such as transportation, electric power, telecommunication, and financial networks. This paper describes initial research combining agent-based infrastructure modeling software and genetic algorithms (GAs) to help optimize infrastructure protection and restoration decisions. This research proposes to apply GAs to the problem of infrastructure modeling and analysis in order to determine the optimum assets to restore or protect from attack or other disaster. This research is just commencing and therefore the focus of this paper is the integration of a GA optimization method with a simulation through the simulation’s agents.

  10. Using an Agent-Based Modeling Simulation and Game to Teach Socio-Scientific Topics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori L. Scarlatos

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In our modern world, where science, technology and society are tightly interwoven, it is essential that all students be able to evaluate scientific evidence and make informed decisions. Energy Choices, an agent-based simulation with a multiplayer game interface, was developed as a learning tool that models the interdependencies between the energy choices that are made, growth in local economies, and climate change on a global scale. This paper presents the results of pilot testing Energy Choices in two different settings, using two different modes of delivery.

  11. An agent-based model of centralized institutions, social network technology, and revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makowsky, Michael D; Rubin, Jared

    2013-01-01

    This paper sheds light on the general mechanisms underlying large-scale social and institutional change. We employ an agent-based model to test the impact of authority centralization and social network technology on preference falsification and institutional change. We find that preference falsification is increasing with centralization and decreasing with social network range. This leads to greater cascades of preference revelation and thus more institutional change in highly centralized societies and this effect is exacerbated at greater social network ranges. An empirical analysis confirms the connections that we find between institutional centralization, social radius, preference falsification, and institutional change.

  12. A Coupled Simulation Architecture for Agent-Based/Geohydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, M.

    2016-12-01

    The quantitative modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interplay between social and environmental processes, and their impact on emergent system dynamics. However, such models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both of the underlying subsystems. For instance, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater management studies can be made more useful by directly accounting for the hydrological processes which drive environmental outcomes. Conversely, conventional environmental models can benefit from an agent-based depiction of the feedbacks and heuristics which influence the decisions of groundwater users. From this perspective, this work describes a Python-based software architecture which couples the popular NetLogo agent-based platform with the MODFLOW/SEAWAT geohydrological modelling environment. This approach enables users to implement agent-based models in NetLogo's user-friendly platform, while benefiting from the full capabilities of MODFLOW/SEAWAT packages or reusing existing geohydrological models. The software architecture is based on the pyNetLogo connector, which provides an interface between the NetLogo agent-based modelling software and the Python programming language. This functionality is then extended and combined with Python's object-oriented features, to design a simulation architecture which couples NetLogo with MODFLOW/SEAWAT through the FloPy library (Bakker et al., 2016). The Python programming language also provides access to a range of external packages which can be used for testing and analysing the coupled models, which is illustrated for an application of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES).

  13. Agent-based model of the effect of globalization on inequality and class mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Joep H. M.; Iron, David; Kolokolnikov, Theodore; Rumsey, John

    2017-12-01

    We consider a variant of the Bouchaud-Mézard model for wealth distribution in a society which incorporates the interaction radius between the agents, to model the extent of globalization in a society. The wealth distribution depends critically on the extent of this interaction. When interaction is relatively local, a small cluster of individuals emerges which accumulate most of the society's wealth. In this regime, the society is highly stratified with little or no class mobility. As the interaction is increased, the number of wealthy agents decreases, but the overall inequality rises as the freed-up wealth is transferred to the remaining wealthy agents. However when the interaction exceeds a certain critical threshold, the society becomes highly mobile resulting in a much lower economic inequality (low Gini index). This is consistent with the Kuznets upside-down U shaped inequality curve hypothesis.

  14. Agent-Based Approach for Modelling the Labour Migration from China to Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the process of labour migration from China to Russia and shows its modelling using the agent-based approach. This approach allows us to simulate an artificial society in a computer program taking into account the diversity of individuals under consideration, as well as to model a set of laws and rules of conduct that make up the institutional environment in which the members of this society live. A brief review and analysis of agent-based migration models presented in the foreign literature are given. The agent-based model of labour migration from China to Russia developed by the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences simulates human behaviour close to reality, which is based on their internal purposes, determining the agents choice of territory as a place of residence. Therefore, at the development of the agents of the model and their behaviour algorithms, as well as the organization of the environment in which they exist and interact, the main characteristics of the population of two neighbouring countries and their demographic processes have been considered. Using the model, two experiments have been conducted. The purpose of the first of them was to assess the effect of depreciation of the rubble against the yuan on the overall indexes of labour migration, as well as its structure. In the second experiment, the procedure of the search of the information by agents for the migratory decision-making was changing. Namely, all generalizing information on the average salary by types of activity and skill level of employees, both in China and Russia, became available to all agents irrespective of their qualification level.

  15. Recent advances in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Fujita, Katsuhide; Robu, Valentin

    2016-01-01

    This book covers recent advances in Complex Automated Negotiations as a widely studied emerging area in the field of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems. The book includes selected revised and extended papers from the 7th International Workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiation (ACAN2014), which was held in Paris, France, in May 2014. The book also includes brief introductions about Agent-based Complex Automated Negotiation which are based on tutorials provided in the workshop, and brief summaries and descriptions about the ANAC'14 (Automated Negotiating Agents Competition) competition, where authors of selected finalist agents explain the strategies and the ideas used by them. The book is targeted to academic and industrial researchers in various communities of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, such as agreement technology, mechanism design, electronic commerce, related areas, as well as graduate, undergraduate, and PhD students working in those areas or having interest in them.

  16. Security Framework for Agent-Based Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Venkateshwaran

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Agent can play a key role in bringing suitable cloud services to the customer based on their requirements. In agent based cloud computing, agent does negotiation, coordination, cooperation and collaboration on behalf of the customer to make the decisions in efficient manner. However the agent based cloud computing have some security issues like (a. addition of malicious agent in the cloud environment which could demolish the process by attacking other agents, (b. denial of service by creating flooding attacks on other involved agents. (c. Some of the exceptions in the agent interaction protocol such as Not-Understood and Cancel_Meta protocol can be misused and may lead to terminating the connection of all the other agents participating in the negotiating services. Also, this paper proposes algorithms to solve these issues to ensure that there will be no intervention of any malicious activities during the agent interaction.

  17. A Framework for Agent-based Human Interaction Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Bürkle

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe an agent-based infrastructure for multimodal perceptual systems which aims at developing and realizing computer services that are delivered to humans in an implicit and unobtrusive way. The framework presented here supports the implementation of human-centric context-aware applications providing non-obtrusive assistance to participants in events such as meetings, lectures, conferences and presentations taking place in indoor "smart spaces". We emphasize on the design and implementation of an agent-based framework that supports "pluggable" service logic in the sense that the service developer can concentrate on coding the service logic independently of the underlying middleware. Furthermore, we give an example of the architecture's ability to support the cooperation of multiple services in a meeting scenario using an intelligent connector service and a semantic web oriented travel service.

  18. A strategy learning model for autonomous agents based on classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Śnieżyński Bartłomiej

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a strategy learning model for autonomous agents based on classification. In the literature, the most commonly used learning method in agent-based systems is reinforcement learning. In our opinion, classification can be considered a good alternative. This type of supervised learning can be used to generate a classifier that allows the agent to choose an appropriate action for execution. Experimental results show that this model can be successfully applied for strategy generation even if rewards are delayed. We compare the efficiency of the proposed model and reinforcement learning using the farmer-pest domain and configurations of various complexity. In complex environments, supervised learning can improve the performance of agents much faster that reinforcement learning. If an appropriate knowledge representation is used, the learned knowledge may be analyzed by humans, which allows tracking the learning process

  19. Novel insights in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez-Carmona, Miguel; Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Bai, Quan; Fujita, Katsuhide

    2014-01-01

    This book focuses on all aspects of complex automated negotiations, which are studied in the field of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems. This book consists of two parts. I: Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations, and II: Automated Negotiation Agents Competition. The chapters in Part I are extended versions of papers presented at the 2012 international workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiation (ACAN), after peer reviews by three Program Committee members. Part II examines in detail ANAC 2012 (The Third Automated Negotiating Agents Competition), in which automated agents that have different negotiation strategies and are implemented by different developers are automatically negotiated in the several negotiation domains. ANAC is an international competition in which automated negotiation strategies, submitted by a number of universities and research institutes across the world, are evaluated in tournament style. The purpose of the competition is to steer the research in the area of bilate...

  20. Agent-based distributed hierarchical control of dc microgrid systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Lexuan; Vasquez, Juan Carlos; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    In order to enable distributed control and management for microgrids, this paper explores the application of information consensus and local decisionmaking methods formulating an agent based distributed hierarchical control system. A droop controlled paralleled DC/DC converter system is taken as ....... Standard genetic algorithm is applied in each local control system in order to search for a global optimum. Hardware-in-Loop simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.......In order to enable distributed control and management for microgrids, this paper explores the application of information consensus and local decisionmaking methods formulating an agent based distributed hierarchical control system. A droop controlled paralleled DC/DC converter system is taken...... as a case study. The objective is to enhance the system efficiency by finding the optimal sharing ratio of load current. Virtual resistances in local control systems are taken as decision variables. Consensus algorithms are applied for global information discovery and local control systems coordination...

  1. Simulating classroom lessons : an agent-based attempt

    OpenAIRE

    Ingram, Fred; Brooks, Roger John

    2018-01-01

    This is an interim report on a project to construct an agent-based simulation that reproduces some of the interactions between students and their teacher in classroom lessons. In a pilot study, the activities of 67 students and 7 teachers during 40 lessons were recorded using a data collection instrument that currently captures 17 student states and 15 teacher states. These data enabled various conceptual models to be explored, providing empirical values and distributions for the model parame...

  2. The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2008-06-01

    Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

  3. AGENT-BASED NEGOTIATION PLATFORM IN COLLABORATIVE NETWORKED ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina-Georgeta CREȚAN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an agent-based platform to model and support parallel and concurrent negotiations among organizations acting in the same industrial market. The underlying complexity is to model the dynamic environment where multi-attribute and multi-participant negotiations are racing over a set of heterogeneous resources. The metaphor Interaction Abstract Machines (IAMs is used to model the parallelism and the non-deterministic aspects of the negotiation processes that occur in Collaborative Networked Environment.

  4. Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

  5. Financial Regulation in an Agent Based Macroeconomic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Mauro, Gallegati

    2013-01-01

    Starting from the agent-based decentralized matching macroeconomic model proposed in Riccetti et al. (2012), we explore the effects of banking regulation on macroeconomic dynamics. In particular, we study the overall credit exposure and the lending concentration towards a single counterparty, finding that the portfolio composition seems to be more relevant than the overall exposure for banking stability, even if both features are very important. We show that a too tight regulation is dangerou...

  6. Invariance and universality in social agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio

    2002-01-01

    Agent-based simulation models have a promising future in the social sciences, from political science to anthropology, economics, and sociology. To realize their full scientific potential, however, these models must address a set of key problems, such as the number of interacting agents and their geometry, network topology, time calibration, phenomenological calibration, structural stability, power laws, and other substantive and methodological issues. This paper discusses and highlights these problems and outlines some solutions. PMID:12011412

  7. Stability of subsystem solutions in agent-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    The fact that relatively simple entities, such as particles or neurons, or even ants or bees or humans, give rise to fascinatingly complex behaviour when interacting in large numbers is the hallmark of complex systems science. Agent-based models are frequently employed for modelling and obtaining a predictive understanding of complex systems. Since the sheer number of equations that describe the behaviour of an entire agent-based model often makes it impossible to solve such models exactly, Monte Carlo simulation methods must be used for the analysis. However, unlike pairwise interactions among particles that typically govern solid-state physics systems, interactions among agents that describe systems in biology, sociology or the humanities often involve group interactions, and they also involve a larger number of possible states even for the most simplified description of reality. This begets the question: when can we be certain that an observed simulation outcome of an agent-based model is actually stable and valid in the large system-size limit? The latter is key for the correct determination of phase transitions between different stable solutions, and for the understanding of the underlying microscopic processes that led to these phase transitions. We show that a satisfactory answer can only be obtained by means of a complete stability analysis of subsystem solutions. A subsystem solution can be formed by any subset of all possible agent states. The winner between two subsystem solutions can be determined by the average moving direction of the invasion front that separates them, yet it is crucial that the competing subsystem solutions are characterised by a proper composition and spatiotemporal structure before the competition starts. We use the spatial public goods game with diverse tolerance as an example, but the approach has relevance for a wide variety of agent-based models.

  8. SETH: A Hierarchical, Agent-based Architecture for Smart Spaces

    OpenAIRE

    Marsá Maestre, Iván

    2008-01-01

    The ultimate goal of any smart environment is to release users from the tasks they usually perform to achieve comfort, efficiency, and service personalization. To achieve this goal, we propose to use multiagent systems. In this report we describe the SETH architectur: a hierarchical, agent-based solution intended to be applicable to different smart space scenarios, ranging from small environments, like smart homes or smart offices, to large smart spaces like cities.

  9. Macroprudential policies in an agent-based artificial economy

    OpenAIRE

    Raberto, Marco; Teglio, Andrea; Cincotti, Silvano

    2012-01-01

    Basel III is a recently-agreed regulatory standard for bank capital adequacy with focus on the macroprudential dimension of banking regulation, i.e., the system- wide implications of banks’ lending and risk. An important Basel III provision is to reduce procyclicality of present banking regulation and promote countercyclical capital buffers for banks. The Eurace agent-based macroeconomic model and sim- ulator has been recently showed to be able to reproduce a credit-fueled boom-bust dynamics ...

  10. An Agent Based Collaborative Simplification of 3D Mesh Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li-Rong; Yu, Bo; Hagiwara, Ichiro

    Large-volume mesh model faces the challenge in fast rendering and transmission by Internet. The current mesh models obtained by using three-dimensional (3D) scanning technology are usually very large in data volume. This paper develops a mobile agent based collaborative environment on the development platform of mobile-C. Communication among distributed agents includes grasping image of visualized mesh model, annotation to grasped image and instant message. Remote and collaborative simplification can be efficiently conducted by Internet.

  11. An Agent Based Approach for Project Management in Construction

    OpenAIRE

    Sencer, Safiye; Turgay, Tahsin

    2013-01-01

    Project management has an important role in terms of time, cost and flexibility. An agentbased architecture provides additional robustness, scalability, flexibility that is particularly appropriate for problems with a dynamic and distributed nature. Integrated agent based project management covers design and construction planning. It is combined with plan execution, tolerating both the design and plan, which may be changed as necessary. In this reason, the decision making process requires tha...

  12. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  13. Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adami, Christoph; Schossau, Jory; Hintze, Arend

    2016-12-01

    Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Agent-based modeling and simulation Part 3 : desktop ABMS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C. M.; North, M. J.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2007-01-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) is a new approach to modeling systems comprised of autonomous, interacting agents. ABMS promises to have far-reaching effects on the way that businesses use computers to support decision-making and researchers use electronic laboratories to support their research. Some have gone so far as to contend that ABMS 'is a third way of doing science,' in addition to traditional deductive and inductive reasoning (Axelrod 1997b). Computational advances have made possible a growing number of agent-based models across a variety of application domains. Applications range from modeling agent behavior in the stock market, supply chains, and consumer markets, to predicting the spread of epidemics, the threat of bio-warfare, and the factors responsible for the fall of ancient civilizations. This tutorial describes the theoretical and practical foundations of ABMS, identifies toolkits and methods for developing agent models, and illustrates the development of a simple agent-based model of shopper behavior using spreadsheets.

  15. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  16. Electromagnetic waves in stratified media

    CERN Document Server

    Wait, James R; Fock, V A; Wait, J R

    2013-01-01

    International Series of Monographs in Electromagnetic Waves, Volume 3: Electromagnetic Waves in Stratified Media provides information pertinent to the electromagnetic waves in media whose properties differ in one particular direction. This book discusses the important feature of the waves that enables communications at global distances. Organized into 13 chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the general analysis for the electromagnetic response of a plane stratified medium comprising of any number of parallel homogeneous layers. This text then explains the reflection of electromagne

  17. Stratified medicine and reimbursement issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fugel, Hans-Joerg; Nuijten, Mark; Postma, Maarten

    2012-01-01

    Stratified Medicine (SM) has the potential to target patient populations who will most benefit from a therapy while reducing unnecessary health interventions associated with side effects. The link between clinical biomarkers/diagnostics and therapies provides new opportunities for value creation to

  18. Is the person-situation debate important for agent-based modeling and vice-versa?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron

    Full Text Available Agent-based models (ABM are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not.Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks and analytic calculations (for a complete graph we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature.This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments.

  19. Moral Guilt : An Agent-Based Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gaudou , Benoit; Lorini , Emiliano; Mayor , Eunate

    2013-01-01

    International audience; In this article we analyze the influence of a concrete moral emotion (i.e. moral guilt) on strategic decision making. We present a normal form Prisoner’s Dilemma with a moral component. We assume that agents evaluate the game’s outcomes with respect to their ideality degree (i.e. how much a given outcome conforms to the player’s moral values), based on two proposed notions on ethical preferences: Harsanyi’s and Rawls’. Based on such game, we construct and agent-based m...

  20. Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

  1. Complexity and agent-based modelling in urban research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    influence on the bigger system. Traditional scientific methods or theories often tried to simplify, not accounting complex relations of actors and decision-making. The introduction of computers in simulation made new approaches in modelling, as for example agent-based modelling (ABM), possible, dealing......Urbanisation processes are results of a broad variety of actors or actor groups and their behaviour and decisions based on different experiences, knowledge, resources, values etc. The decisions done are often on a micro/individual level but resulting in macro/collective behaviour. In urban research...

  2. Agent-based simulation of electricity markets. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sensfuss, F.; Ragwitz, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Genoese, M.; Moest, D. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (Germany). Inst. fuer Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion

    2007-07-01

    Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to con-sider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appear-ance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Fur-thermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instru-ments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. (orig.)

  3. Agent-based Algorithm for Spatial Distribution of Objects

    KAUST Repository

    Collier, Nathan

    2012-06-02

    In this paper we present an agent-based algorithm for the spatial distribution of objects. The algorithm is a generalization of the bubble mesh algorithm, initially created for the point insertion stage of the meshing process of the finite element method. The bubble mesh algorithm treats objects in space as bubbles, which repel and attract each other. The dynamics of each bubble are approximated by solving a series of ordinary differential equations. We present numerical results for a meshing application as well as a graph visualization application.

  4. Web of Data Evolution by Exploiting Agent Based-Argumentation

    OpenAIRE

    Chamekh , Fatma; Boulanger , Danielle; Talens , Guilaine

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Sharing knowledge and data coming from different sources is one of the biggest advantage of linked data. Keeping this knowledge graph up to date may take in account both ontology vocabularies and data since they should be consistent. Our general problem is to deal with web of data evolution in particular: We aim at assisting user in a such complex process. In this research work, we propose an agent based-argumentation framework to help user linked data changes. We assi...

  5. Turning green: Agent-based modeling of the adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kowalska-Pyzalska, Anna; Maciejowska, Katarzyna; Suszczyński, Karol; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał

    2014-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach we study the temporal dynamics of consumer opinions regarding switching to dynamic electricity tariffs and the actual decisions to switch. We assume that the decision to switch is based on the unanimity of τ past opinions. The resulting model offers a hypothetical, yet plausible explanation of why there is such a big discrepancy between consumer opinions, as measured by market surveys, and the actual participation in pilot programs and the adoption of dynamic tariffs. We argue that due to the high indifference level in today's retail electricity markets, customer opinions are very unstable and change frequently. The conducted simulation study shows that reducing the indifference level can result in narrowing the intention–behavior gap. A similar effect can be achieved by decreasing the decision time that a consumer takes to make a decision. - Highlights: • We propose an agent-based model to study the adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs. • The decision to change the tariff is based on the unanimity of τ past opinions. • The model explains why the empirically observed intention–behavior gap exists. • The adoption of dynamic tariffs is impossible due to the high level of indifference in today's societies. • Reducing the indifference level or decreasing the decision time can result in narrowing the gap

  6. Can agent based models effectively reduce fisheries management implementation uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, M.

    2016-02-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent feature of fisheries management. Implementation uncertainty remains a challenge to quantify often due to unintended responses of users to management interventions. This problem will continue to plague both single species and ecosystem based fisheries management advice unless the mechanisms driving these behaviors are properly understood. Equilibrium models, where each actor in the system is treated as uniform and predictable, are not well suited to forecast the unintended behaviors of individual fishers. Alternatively, agent based models (AMBs) can simulate the behaviors of each individual actor driven by differing incentives and constraints. This study evaluated the feasibility of using AMBs to capture macro scale behaviors of the US West Coast Groundfish fleet. Agent behavior was specified at the vessel level. Agents made daily fishing decisions using knowledge of their own cost structure, catch history, and the histories of catch and quota markets. By adding only a relatively small number of incentives, the model was able to reproduce highly realistic macro patterns of expected outcomes in response to management policies (catch restrictions, MPAs, ITQs) while preserving vessel heterogeneity. These simulations indicate that agent based modeling approaches hold much promise for simulating fisher behaviors and reducing implementation uncertainty. Additional processes affecting behavior, informed by surveys, are continually being added to the fisher behavior model. Further coupling of the fisher behavior model to a spatial ecosystem model will provide a fully integrated social, ecological, and economic model capable of performing management strategy evaluations to properly consider implementation uncertainty in fisheries management.

  7. Modelling of robotic work cells using agent based-approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Monica, Z.; Kost, G.; Hryniewicz, P.

    2016-08-01

    In the case of modern manufacturing systems the requirements, both according the scope and according characteristics of technical procedures are dynamically changing. This results in production system organization inability to keep up with changes in a market demand. Accordingly, there is a need for new design methods, characterized, on the one hand with a high efficiency and on the other with the adequate level of the generated organizational solutions. One of the tools that could be used for this purpose is the concept of agent systems. These systems are the tools of artificial intelligence. They allow assigning to agents the proper domains of procedures and knowledge so that they represent in a self-organizing system of an agent environment, components of a real system. The agent-based system for modelling robotic work cell should be designed taking into consideration many limitations considered with the characteristic of this production unit. It is possible to distinguish some grouped of structural components that constitute such a system. This confirms the structural complexity of a work cell as a specific production system. So it is necessary to develop agents depicting various aspects of the work cell structure. The main groups of agents that are used to model a robotic work cell should at least include next pattern representatives: machine tool agents, auxiliary equipment agents, robots agents, transport equipment agents, organizational agents as well as data and knowledge bases agents. In this way it is possible to create the holarchy of the agent-based system.

  8. An agent-based approach to financial stylized facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Suzuki, Kyoko; Misawa, Tadanobu

    2007-06-01

    An important challenge of the financial theory in recent years is to construct more sophisticated models which have consistencies with as many financial stylized facts that cannot be explained by traditional models. Recently, psychological studies on decision making under uncertainty which originate in Kahneman and Tversky's research attract a lot of interest as key factors which figure out the financial stylized facts. These psychological results have been applied to the theory of investor's decision making and financial equilibrium modeling. This paper, following these behavioral financial studies, would like to propose an agent-based equilibrium model with prospect theoretical features of investors. Our goal is to point out a possibility that loss-averse feature of investors explains vast number of financial stylized facts and plays a crucial role in price formations of financial markets. Price process which is endogenously generated through our model has consistencies with, not only the equity premium puzzle and the volatility puzzle, but great kurtosis, asymmetry of return distribution, auto-correlation of return volatility, cross-correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Moreover, by using agent-based simulations, the paper also provides a rigorous explanation from the viewpoint of a lack of market liquidity to the size effect, which means that small-sized stocks enjoy excess returns compared to large-sized stocks.

  9. Identification of walking human model using agent-based modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahabpoor, Erfan; Pavic, Aleksandar; Racic, Vitomir

    2018-03-01

    The interaction of walking people with large vibrating structures, such as footbridges and floors, in the vertical direction is an important yet challenging phenomenon to describe mathematically. Several different models have been proposed in the literature to simulate interaction of stationary people with vibrating structures. However, the research on moving (walking) human models, explicitly identified for vibration serviceability assessment of civil structures, is still sparse. In this study, the results of a comprehensive set of FRF-based modal tests were used, in which, over a hundred test subjects walked in different group sizes and walking patterns on a test structure. An agent-based model was used to simulate discrete traffic-structure interactions. The occupied structure modal parameters found in tests were used to identify the parameters of the walking individual's single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) mass-spring-damper model using 'reverse engineering' methodology. The analysis of the results suggested that the normal distribution with the average of μ = 2.85Hz and standard deviation of σ = 0.34Hz can describe human SDOF model natural frequency. Similarly, the normal distribution with μ = 0.295 and σ = 0.047 can describe the human model damping ratio. Compared to the previous studies, the agent-based modelling methodology proposed in this paper offers significant flexibility in simulating multi-pedestrian walking traffics, external forces and simulating different mechanisms of human-structure and human-environment interaction at the same time.

  10. Markov chain aggregation for agent-based models

    CERN Document Server

    Banisch, Sven

    2016-01-01

    This self-contained text develops a Markov chain approach that makes the rigorous analysis of a class of microscopic models that specify the dynamics of complex systems at the individual level possible. It presents a general framework of aggregation in agent-based and related computational models, one which makes use of lumpability and information theory in order to link the micro and macro levels of observation. The starting point is a microscopic Markov chain description of the dynamical process in complete correspondence with the dynamical behavior of the agent-based model (ABM), which is obtained by considering the set of all possible agent configurations as the state space of a huge Markov chain. An explicit formal representation of a resulting “micro-chain” including microscopic transition rates is derived for a class of models by using the random mapping representation of a Markov process. The type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model, which defines the upd...

  11. Strengthening Theoretical Testing in Criminology Using Agent-based Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shane D; Groff, Elizabeth R

    2014-07-01

    The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency ( JRCD ) has published important contributions to both criminological theory and associated empirical tests. In this article, we consider some of the challenges associated with traditional approaches to social science research, and discuss a complementary approach that is gaining popularity-agent-based computational modeling-that may offer new opportunities to strengthen theories of crime and develop insights into phenomena of interest. Two literature reviews are completed. The aim of the first is to identify those articles published in JRCD that have been the most influential and to classify the theoretical perspectives taken. The second is intended to identify those studies that have used an agent-based model (ABM) to examine criminological theories and to identify which theories have been explored. Ecological theories of crime pattern formation have received the most attention from researchers using ABMs, but many other criminological theories are amenable to testing using such methods. Traditional methods of theory development and testing suffer from a number of potential issues that a more systematic use of ABMs-not without its own issues-may help to overcome. ABMs should become another method in the criminologists toolbox to aid theory testing and falsification.

  12. Empirical agent-based modelling challenges and solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Barreteau, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    This instructional book showcases techniques to parameterise human agents in empirical agent-based models (ABM). In doing so, it provides a timely overview of key ABM methodologies and the most innovative approaches through a variety of empirical applications.  It features cutting-edge research from leading academics and practitioners, and will provide a guide for characterising and parameterising human agents in empirical ABM.  In order to facilitate learning, this text shares the valuable experiences of other modellers in particular modelling situations. Very little has been published in the area of empirical ABM, and this contributed volume will appeal to graduate-level students and researchers studying simulation modeling in economics, sociology, ecology, and trans-disciplinary studies, such as topics related to sustainability. In a similar vein to the instruction found in a cookbook, this text provides the empirical modeller with a set of 'recipes'  ready to be implemented. Agent-based modeling (AB...

  13. A Multi Agent Based Model for Airport Service Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.H. Ip

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Aviation industry is highly dynamic and demanding in nature that time and safety are the two most important factors while one of the major sources of delay is aircraft on ground because of it complexity, a lot of machinery like vehicles are involved and lots of communication are involved. As one of the aircraft ground services providers in Hong Kong International Airport, China Aircraft Services Limited (CASL aims to increase competitiveness by better its service provided while minimizing cost is also needed. One of the ways is to optimize the number of maintenance vehicles allocated in order to minimize chance of delay and also operating costs. In the paper, an agent-based model is proposed for support decision making in vehicle allocation. The overview of the aircrafts ground services procedures is firstly mentioned with different optimization methods suggested by researchers. Then, the agent-based approach is introduced and in the latter part of report and a multi-agent system is built and proposed which is decision supportive for CASL in optimizing the maintenance vehicles' allocation. The application provides flexibility for inputting number of different kinds of vehicles, simulation duration and aircraft arrival rate in order to simulation different scenarios which occurs in HKIA.

  14. Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakobsson, Kristofer

    2010-05-01

    Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of 'peak oil' cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual

  15. The Stratified Legitimacy of Abortions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimport, Katrina; Weitz, Tracy A; Freedman, Lori

    2016-12-01

    Roe v. Wade was heralded as an end to unequal access to abortion care in the United States. However, today, despite being common and safe, abortion is performed only selectively in hospitals and private practices. Drawing on 61 interviews with obstetrician-gynecologists in these settings, we examine how they determine which abortions to perform. We find that they distinguish between more and less legitimate abortions, producing a narrative of stratified legitimacy that privileges abortions for intended pregnancies, when the fetus is unhealthy, and when women perform normative gendered sexuality, including distress about the abortion, guilt about failure to contracept, and desire for motherhood. This stratified legitimacy can perpetuate socially-inflected inequality of access and normative gendered sexuality. Additionally, we argue that the practice by physicians of distinguishing among abortions can legitimate legislative practices that regulate and restrict some kinds of abortion, further constraining abortion access. © American Sociological Association 2016.

  16. RADIAL STABILITY IN STRATIFIED STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Jonas P.; Rueda, Jorge A.

    2015-01-01

    We formulate within a generalized distributional approach the treatment of the stability against radial perturbations for both neutral and charged stratified stars in Newtonian and Einstein's gravity. We obtain from this approach the boundary conditions connecting any two phases within a star and underline its relevance for realistic models of compact stars with phase transitions, owing to the modification of the star's set of eigenmodes with respect to the continuous case

  17. Risk, individual differences, and environment: an Agent-Based Modeling approach to sexual risk-taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagoski, Emily; Janssen, Erick; Lohrmann, David; Nichols, Eric

    2012-08-01

    Risky sexual behaviors, including the decision to have unprotected sex, result from interactions between individuals and their environment. The current study explored the use of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-a methodological approach in which computer-generated artificial societies simulate human sexual networks-to assess the influence of heterogeneity of sexual motivation on the risk of contracting HIV. The models successfully simulated some characteristics of human sexual systems, such as the relationship between individual differences in sexual motivation (sexual excitation and inhibition) and sexual risk, but failed to reproduce the scale-free distribution of number of partners observed in the real world. ABM has the potential to inform intervention strategies that target the interaction between an individual and his or her social environment.

  18. Agent-based Modelling, a new kind of research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Held, Fabian P.; Wilkinson, Ian F.; Marks, Robert E.

    2014-01-01

    guidelines to help plan and structure the development of a theory about the causes of such a phenomenon in conjunction with a matching ABM. We argue that research about complex social phenomena is still largely fundamental research and therefore an iterative and cyclical development process of both theory......We discuss the use of Agent-based Modelling for the development and testing of theories about emergent social phenomena in marketing and the social sciences in general. We address both theoretical aspects about the types of phenomena that are suitably addressed with this approach and practical...... development. The main goal of this paper was to make research on complex social systems more accessible and help anticipate and structure the research process....

  19. Agent-based simulation of a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raberto, Marco; Cincotti, Silvano; Focardi, Sergio M.; Marchesi, Michele

    2001-10-01

    This paper introduces an agent-based artificial financial market in which heterogeneous agents trade one single asset through a realistic trading mechanism for price formation. Agents are initially endowed with a finite amount of cash and a given finite portfolio of assets. There is no money-creation process; the total available cash is conserved in time. In each period, agents make random buy and sell decisions that are constrained by available resources, subject to clustering, and dependent on the volatility of previous periods. The model proposed herein is able to reproduce the leptokurtic shape of the probability density of log price returns and the clustering of volatility. Implemented using extreme programming and object-oriented technology, the simulator is a flexible computational experimental facility that can find applications in both academic and industrial research projects.

  20. Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

    2016-01-01

    This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

  1. Agent-Based Modeling in Molecular Systems Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soheilypour, Mohammad; Mofrad, Mohammad R K

    2018-06-08

    Molecular systems orchestrating the biology of the cell typically involve a complex web of interactions among various components and span a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. Computational methods have advanced our understanding of the behavior of molecular systems by enabling us to test assumptions and hypotheses, explore the effect of different parameters on the outcome, and eventually guide experiments. While several different mathematical and computational methods are developed to study molecular systems at different spatiotemporal scales, there is still a need for methods that bridge the gap between spatially-detailed and computationally-efficient approaches. In this review, we summarize the capabilities of agent-based modeling (ABM) as an emerging molecular systems biology technique that provides researchers with a new tool in exploring the dynamics of molecular systems/pathways in health and disease. © 2018 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

  2. System-Awareness for Agent-based Power System Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Saleem, Arshad; Lind, Morten

    2010-01-01

    transition. This paper presents a concept for the representation and organization of control- and resource-allocation, enabling computational reasoning and system awareness. The principles are discussed with respect to a recently proposed Subgrid operation concept.......Operational intelligence in electric power systems is focused in a small number of control rooms that coordinate their actions. A clear division of responsibility and a command hierarchy organize system operation. With multi-agent based control systems, this control paradigm may be shifted...... to a more decentralized openaccess collaboration control paradigm. This shift cannot happen at once, but must fit also with current operation principles. In order to establish a scalable and transparent system control architecture, organizing principles have to be identified that allow for a smooth...

  3. Agent Based Modeling on Organizational Dynamics of Terrorist Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model are developed for modeling the hybrid relational structure and complex operational processes, respectively. To intuitively elucidate this method, the agent based modeling is used to simulate the terrorist network and test the performance in diverse scenarios. Based on the experimental results, we show how the changes of operational environments affect the development of terrorist organization in terms of its recovery and capacity to perform future tasks. The potential strategies are also discussed, which can be used to restrain the activities of terrorists.

  4. Agent-based modeling of noncommunicable diseases: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nianogo, Roch A; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2015-03-01

    We reviewed the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), a systems science method, in understanding noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and their public health risk factors. We systematically reviewed studies in PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Sciences published from January 2003 to July 2014. We retrieved 22 relevant articles; each had an observational or interventional design. Physical activity and diet were the most-studied outcomes. Often, single agent types were modeled, and the environment was usually irrelevant to the studied outcome. Predictive validation and sensitivity analyses were most used to validate models. Although increasingly used to study NCDs, ABM remains underutilized and, where used, is suboptimally reported in public health studies. Its use in studying NCDs will benefit from clarified best practices and improved rigor to establish its usefulness and facilitate replication, interpretation, and application.

  5. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Clemente, Riccardo; Pietronero, Luciano

    2012-07-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  6. An Agent Based approach to design Serious Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Gentile

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Serious games are designed to train and educate learners, opening up new learning approaches like exploratory learning and situated cognition.  Despite growing interest in these games, their design is still an artisan process.On the basis of experiences in designing computer simulation, this paper proposes an agent-based approach to guide the design process of a serious game. The proposed methodology allows the designer to strike the right equilibrium between educational effectiveness and entertainment, realism and complexity.The design of the PNPVillage game is used as a case study. The PNPVillage game aims to introduce and foster an entrepreneurial mindset among young students. It was implemented within the framework of the European project “I  can… I cannot… I go!” Rev.2

  7. Next frontier in agent-based complex automated negotiation

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Takayuki; Zhang, Minjie; Robu, Valentin

    2015-01-01

    This book focuses on automated negotiations based on multi-agent systems. It is intended for researchers and students in various fields involving autonomous agents and multi-agent systems, such as e-commerce tools, decision-making and negotiation support systems, and collaboration tools. The contents will help them to understand the concept of automated negotiations, negotiation protocols, negotiating agents’ strategies, and the applications of those strategies. In this book, some negotiation protocols focusing on the multiple interdependent issues in negotiations are presented, making it possible to find high-quality solutions for the complex agents’ utility functions. This book is a compilation of the extended versions of the very best papers selected from the many that were presented at the International Workshop on Agent-Based Complex Automated Negotiations.

  8. Capacity Analysis for Parallel Runway through Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parallel runway is the mainstream structure of China hub airport, runway is often the bottleneck of an airport, and the evaluation of its capacity is of great importance to airport management. This study outlines a model, multiagent architecture, implementation approach, and software prototype of a simulation system for evaluating runway capacity. Agent Unified Modeling Language (AUML is applied to illustrate the inbound and departing procedure of planes and design the agent-based model. The model is evaluated experimentally, and the quality is studied in comparison with models, created by SIMMOD and Arena. The results seem to be highly efficient, so the method can be applied to parallel runway capacity evaluation and the model propose favorable flexibility and extensibility.

  9. Agent-based Simulation of the Maritime Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Vaněk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent based simulation platform is introduced that focuses on legitimate and illegitimate aspects of maritime traffic, mainly on intercontinental transport through piracy afflicted areas. The extensible architecture presented here comprises several modules controlling the simulation and the life-cycle of the agents, analyzing the simulation output and visualizing the entire simulated domain. The simulation control module is initialized by various configuration scenarios to simulate various real-world situations, such as a pirate ambush, coordinated transit through a transport corridor, or coastal fishing and local traffic. The environmental model provides a rich set of inputs for agents that use the geo-spatial data and the vessel operational characteristics for their reasoning. The agent behavior model based on finite state machines together with planning algorithms allows complex expression of agent behavior, so the resulting simulation output can serve as a substitution for real world data from the maritime domain.

  10. Hypercompetitive Environments: An Agent-based model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Manuel; Araújo, Tanya

    Information technology (IT) environments are characterized by complex changes and rapid evolution. Globalization and the spread of technological innovation have increased the need for new strategic information resources, both from individual firms and management environments. Improvements in multidisciplinary methods and, particularly, the availability of powerful computational tools, are giving researchers an increasing opportunity to investigate management environments in their true complex nature. The adoption of a complex systems approach allows for modeling business strategies from a bottom-up perspective — understood as resulting from repeated and local interaction of economic agents — without disregarding the consequences of the business strategies themselves to individual behavior of enterprises, emergence of interaction patterns between firms and management environments. Agent-based models are at the leading approach of this attempt.

  11. Formalizing Knowledge in Multi-Scale Agent-Based Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somogyi, Endre; Sluka, James P; Glazier, James A

    2016-10-01

    Multi-scale, agent-based simulations of cellular and tissue biology are increasingly common. These simulations combine and integrate a range of components from different domains. Simulations continuously create, destroy and reorganize constituent elements causing their interactions to dynamically change. For example, the multi-cellular tissue development process coordinates molecular, cellular and tissue scale objects with biochemical, biomechanical, spatial and behavioral processes to form a dynamic network. Different domain specific languages can describe these components in isolation, but cannot describe their interactions. No current programming language is designed to represent in human readable and reusable form the domain specific knowledge contained in these components and interactions. We present a new hybrid programming language paradigm that naturally expresses the complex multi-scale objects and dynamic interactions in a unified way and allows domain knowledge to be captured, searched, formalized, extracted and reused.

  12. Engineering large-scale agent-based systems with consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokma, A.; Slade, A.; Kerridge, S.; Johnson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the consensus method for the development of large-scale agent-based systems. Systems can be developed as networks of knowledge based agents (KBA) which engage in a collaborative problem solving effort. The method provides a comprehensive and integrated approach to the development of this type of system. This includes a systematic analysis of user requirements as well as a structured approach to generating a system design which exhibits the desired functionality. There is a direct correspondence between system requirements and design components. The benefits of this approach are that requirements are traceable into design components and code thus facilitating verification. The use of the consensus method with two major test applications showed it to be successful and also provided valuable insight into problems typically associated with the development of large systems.

  13. Simulating the Reproductive Behavior of a Region’s Population with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The research analyses the impact of the inequality of demographic transition on socio-demographic characteristics of the regional population and on the dynamics of these characteristics. The study was conducted with the help of computer-based experiments (simulations, which was run on the original agent-based model. The model is an artificial society, and personal characteristics of its members are set so that they could represent age-demographic structure of a simulate region. The agents are divided into two subgroups, which differ in their reproductive strategy. The first group has traditional strategy with high birth rate. The second group has considerably lower birth rate, observed in the modern developed societies. The model uses stochastic approaches to imitate the principle processes of population growth: mortality and morbidity. Mortality is set according to age-sex specific mortality coefficients, which do not differ across the population as a whole. New agents (child births appear as a choice of agents – women of reproductive age, and the choice depends on the subgroup. The overall age and social structure of the region is aggregated across individual agents. A number of experiments has been carried out with the model utilization. This allowed forecasting the size and structure of the population of a given region. The results of the experiments have revealed that despite its simplicity, the developed agent-based model well predicts the initial conditions in the region (e.g. age-demographic and social structure. The model shows good fit in terms of estimating the dynamics of major characteristics of the population.

  14. An agent-based model for energy service companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, Marguerite; Varga, Liz; Allen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An agent-based model for household energy efficiency upgrades is considered. • Energy service companies provide an alternative to traditional utility providers. • Household self-financing is a limiting factor to widespread efficiency upgrading. • Longer term service contracts can lead to reduced household energy costs. • Future energy price increases enable service providers to retain their customer base. - Abstract: The residential housing sector is a major consumer of energy accounting for approximately one third of carbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Achieving a sustainable, low-carbon infrastructure necessitates a reduced and more efficient use of domestic energy supplies. Energy service companies offer an alternative to traditional providers, which supply a single utility product to satisfy the unconstrained demand of end users, and have been identified as a potentially important actor in sustainable future economies. An agent-based model is developed to examine the potential of energy service companies to contribute to the large scale upgrading of household energy efficiency, which would ultimately lead to a more sustainable and secure energy infrastructure. The migration of households towards energy service companies is described by an attractiveness array, through which potential customers can evaluate the future benefits, in terms of household energy costs, of changing provider. It is shown that self-financing is a limiting factor to the widespread upgrading of residential energy efficiency. Greater reductions in household energy costs could be achieved by committing to longer term contracts, allowing upgrade costs to be distributed over greater time intervals. A steadily increasing cost of future energy usage lends an element of stability to the market, with energy service companies displaying the ability to retain customers on contract expiration. The model highlights how a greater focus on the provision of energy services, as

  15. Agent-Based Computational Modeling of Cell Culture ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantitative characterization of cellular dose in vitro is needed for alignment of doses in vitro and in vivo. We used the agent-based software, CompuCell3D (CC3D), to provide a stochastic description of cell growth in culture. The model was configured so that isolated cells assumed a “fried egg shape” but became increasingly cuboidal with increasing confluency. The surface area presented by each cell to the overlying medium varies from cell-to-cell and is a determinant of diffusional flux of toxicant from the medium into the cell. Thus, dose varies among cells for a given concentration of toxicant in the medium. Computer code describing diffusion of H2O2 from medium into each cell and clearance of H2O2 was calibrated against H2O2 time-course data (25, 50, or 75 uM H2O2 for 60 min) obtained with the Amplex Red assay for the medium and the H2O2-sensitive fluorescent reporter, HyPer, for cytosol. Cellular H2O2 concentrations peaked at about 5 min and were near baseline by 10 min. The model predicted a skewed distribution of surface areas, with between cell variation usually 2 fold or less. Predicted variability in cellular dose was in rough agreement with the variation in the HyPer data. These results are preliminary, as the model was not calibrated to the morphology of a specific cell type. Future work will involve morphology model calibration against human bronchial epithelial (BEAS-2B) cells. Our results show, however, the potential of agent-based modeling

  16. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  17. Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksejus Kononovičius

    2013-08-01

    policy making tools in order to cope with the social transformations in the contemporary society. Originality/Value – The relationship between the inter-individual and the collective behavior is an interesting topic considered to be coming from rather different fields by many scientists. Yet the topic has received due attention only in the recent years. Consequently, the truly systematic approaches directly bridging between these two concepts are somewhat rare. These approaches also differ among themselves – some of the research groups consider questionnaires to understand the individual incentives of the humans, some suggest varying applications of the known physical models and some have roots in the behavioral economics and utility optimization. Our approach in this sense is unique as we start from a simple agentbased herding model and use the ideas from the statistical physics to obtain its macroscopic treatments for the different socio-economic scenarios. In this contribution we present our previous approaches, namely considering new product diffusion in the market and also a financial market model, and also our most recent results, related to the leadership in the social communities and predator-prey type competition in the socio-economic systems. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the correspondence between the considered simple agent-based herding model and the considered macroscopic models was not previously discussed by the other research groups. Research type: research paper.

  18. Free Falling in Stratified Fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Try; Vincent, Lionel; Kanso, Eva

    2017-11-01

    Leaves falling in air and discs falling in water are examples of unsteady descents due to complex interaction between gravitational and aerodynamic forces. Understanding these descent modes is relevant to many branches of engineering and science such as estimating the behavior of re-entry space vehicles to studying biomechanics of seed dispersion. For regularly shaped objects falling in homogenous fluids, the motion is relatively well understood. However, less is known about how density stratification of the fluid medium affects the falling behavior. Here, we experimentally investigate the descent of discs in both pure water and in stable linearly stratified fluids for Froude numbers Fr 1 and Reynolds numbers Re between 1000 -2000. We found that stable stratification (1) enhances the radial dispersion of the disc at landing, (2) increases the descent time, (3) decreases the inclination (or nutation) angle, and (4) decreases the fluttering amplitude while falling. We conclude by commenting on how the corresponding information can be used as a predictive model for objects free falling in stratified fluids.

  19. Stratified Medicine and Reimbursement Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans-Joerg eFugel

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Stratified Medicine (SM has the potential to target patient populations who will most benefit from a therapy while reducing unnecessary health interventions associated with side effects. The link between clinical biomarkers/diagnostics and therapies provides new opportunities for value creation to strengthen the value proposition to pricing and reimbursement (P&R authorities. However, the introduction of SM challenges current reimbursement schemes in many EU countries and the US as different P&R policies have been adopted for drugs and diagnostics. Also, there is a lack of a consistent process for value assessment of more complex diagnostics in these markets. New, innovative approaches and more flexible P&R systems are needed to reflect the added value of diagnostic tests and to stimulate investments in new technologies. Yet, the framework for access of diagnostic–based therapies still requires further development while setting the right incentives and appropriate align stakeholders interests when realizing long- term patient benefits. This article addresses the reimbursement challenges of SM approaches in several EU countries and the US outlining some options to overcome existing reimbursement barriers for stratified medicine.

  20. Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Labiosa, William

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information

  1. Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.

    2004-12-01

    The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

  2. Design of dry sand soil stratified sampler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Erkang; Chen, Wei; Feng, Xiao; Liao, Hongbo; Liang, Xiaodong

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a design of a stratified sampler for dry sand soil, which can be used for stratified sampling of loose sand under certain conditions. Our group designed the mechanical structure of a portable, single - person, dry sandy soil stratified sampler. We have set up a mathematical model for the sampler. It lays the foundation for further development of design research.

  3. Improving Agent Based Models and Validation through Data Fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D; Mukhi, Shamir N

    2011-01-01

    This work is contextualized in research in modeling and simulation of infection spread within a community or population, with the objective to provide a public health and policy tool in assessing the dynamics of infection spread and the qualitative impacts of public health interventions. This work uses the integration of real data sources into an Agent Based Model (ABM) to simulate respiratory infection spread within a small municipality. Novelty is derived in that the data sources are not necessarily obvious within ABM infection spread models. The ABM is a spatial-temporal model inclusive of behavioral and interaction patterns between individual agents on a real topography. The agent behaviours (movements and interactions) are fed by census / demographic data, integrated with real data from a telecommunication service provider (cellular records) and person-person contact data obtained via a custom 3G Smartphone application that logs Bluetooth connectivity between devices. Each source provides data of varying type and granularity, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. The work demonstrates opportunities in data mining and fusion that can be used by policy and decision makers. The data become real-world inputs into individual SIR disease spread models and variants, thereby building credible and non-intrusive models to qualitatively simulate and assess public health interventions at the population level.

  4. DAIDS: a Distributed, Agent-based Information Dissemination System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pete Haglich

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The Distributed Agent-Based Information Dissemination System (DAIDS concept was motivated by the need to share information among the members of a military tactical team in an atmosphere of extremely limited or intermittent bandwidth. The DAIDS approach recognizes that in many cases communications limitations will preclude the complete sharing of all tactical information between the members of the tactical team. Communications may be limited by obstructions to the line of sight between platforms; electronic warfare; or environmental conditions, or just contention from other users of that bandwidth. Since it may not be possible to achieve a complete information exchange, it is important to prioritize transmissions so the most critical information from the standpoint of the recipient is disseminated first. The challenge is to be able to determine which elements of information are the most important to each teammate. The key innovation of the DAIDS concept is the use of software proxy agents to represent the information needs of the recipient of the information. The DAIDS approach uses these proxy agents to evaluate the content of a message in accordance with the context and information needs of the recipient platform (the agent's principal and prioritize the message for dissemination. In our research we implemented this approach and demonstrated that it provides nearly a reduction in transmission times for critical tactical reports by up to a factor of 30 under severe bandwidth limitations.

  5. MAST – A Mobile Agent-based Security Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carvalho

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the chief computer security problems is not the long list of viruses and other potential vulnerabilities, but the vast number of systems that continue to be easy prey, as their system administrators or owners simply are not able to keep up with all of the available patches, updates, or needed configuration changes in order to protect them from those known vulnerabilities. Even up-to-date systems could become vulnerable to attacks, due to inappropriate configuration or combined used of applications and services. Our mobile agent-based security tool (MAST is designed to bridge this gap, and provide automated methods to make sure that all of the systems in a specific domain or network are secured and up-to-date with all patches and updates. The tool is also designed to check systems for misconfigurations that make them vulnerable. Additionally, this user interface is presented in a domain knowledge model known as a Concept Map that provides a continuous learning experience for the system administrator.

  6. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  7. Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

    2015-01-01

    By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

  8. Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

    2016-04-01

    A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds.

  9. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  10. Agent-based modelling of heating system adoption in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya; Kloeckner, Christian A.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2010-07-01

    Full text: This paper introduces agent-based modelling as a methodological approach to understand the effect of decision making mechanism on the adoption of heating systems in Norway. The model is used as an experimental/learning tool to design possible interventions, not for prediction. The intended users of the model are therefore policy designers. Primary heating system adoptions of electric heating, heat pump and wood pellet heating were selected. Random topology was chosen to represent social network among households. Agents were households with certain location, number of peers, current adopted heating system, employed decision strategy, and degree of social influence in decision making. The overall framework of decision-making integrated theories from different disciplines; customer behavior theory, behavioral economics, theory of planned behavior, and diffusion of innovation, in order to capture possible decision making processes in households. A mail survey of 270 Norwegian households conducted in 2008 was designed specifically for acquiring data for the simulation. The model represents real geographic area of households and simulates the overall fraction of adopted heating system under study. The model was calibrated with historical data from Statistics Norway (SSB). Interventions with respects to total cost, norms, indoor air quality, reliability, supply security, required work, could be explored using the model. For instance, the model demonstrates that a considerable total cost (investment and operating cost) increase of electric heating and heat pump, rather than a reduction of wood pellet heating's total cost, are required to initiate and speed up wood pellet adoption. (Author)

  11. An Agent Based Model of Household Water Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clinton J. Andrews

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Households consume a significant fraction of total potable water production. Strategies to improve the efficiency of water use tend to emphasize technological interventions to reduce or shift water demand. Behavioral water use reduction strategies can also play an important role, but a flexible framework for exploring the “what-ifs” has not been available. This paper introduces such a framework, presenting an agent-based model of household water-consuming behavior. The model simulates hourly water-using activities of household members within a rich technological and behavioral context, calibrated with appropriate data. Illustrative experiments compare the resulting water usage of U.S. and Dutch households and their associated water-using technologies, different household types (singles, families with children, and retired couples, different water metering regimes, and educational campaigns. All else equal, Dutch and metered households use less water. Retired households use more water because they are more often at home. Water-saving educational campaigns are effective for the part of the population that is receptive. Important interactions among these factors, both technological and behavioral, highlight the value of this framework for integrated analysis of the human-technology-water system.

  12. A SIMULATION OF CONTRACT FARMING USING AGENT BASED MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanita Handayati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to simulate the effects of contract farming and farmer commitment to contract farming on supply chain performance by using agent based modeling as a methodology. Supply chain performance is represented by profits and service levels. The simulation results indicate that farmers should pay attention to customer requirements and plan their agricultural activities in order to fulfill these requirements. Contract farming helps farmers deal with demand and price uncertainties. We also find that farmer commitment is crucial to fulfilling contract requirements. This study contributes to this field from a conceptual as well as a practical point of view. From the conceptual point of view, our simulation results show that different levels of farmer commitment have an impact on farmer performance when implementing contract farming. From a practical point of view, the uncertainty faced by farmers and the market can be managed by implementing cultivation and harvesting scheduling, information sharing, and collective learning as ways of committing to contract farming.

  13. Using the Agent-Based Modeling in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The last ten years of the XX century has been the witnesses of the apparition of a new scientific field, which is usually defined as the study of “Complex adaptive systems”. This field, generic named Complexity Sciences, shares its subject, the general proprieties of complex systems across traditional disciplinary boundaries, with cybernetics and general systems theory. But the development of Complexity Sciences approaches is determined by the extensive use of Agent-Based-Models (ABM as a research tool and an emphasis on systems, such as markets, populations or ecologies, which are less integrated or “organized” than the ones, such as companies and economies, intensively studied by the traditional disciplines. For ABM, a complex system is a system of individual agents who have the freedom to act in ways that are not always totally predictable, and whose actions are interconnected such that one agent’s actions changes the context (environment for other agents. These are many examples of such complex systems: the stock market, the human body immune system, a business organization, an institution, a work-team, a family etc.

  14. Suppression of stratified explosive interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meeks, M.K.; Shamoun, B.I.; Bonazza, R.; Corradini, M.L. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering and Engineering Physics

    1998-01-01

    Stratified Fuel-Coolant Interaction (FCI) experiments with Refrigerant-134a and water were performed in a large-scale system. Air was uniformly injected into the coolant pool to establish a pre-existing void which could suppress the explosion. Two competing effects due to the variation of the air flow rate seem to influence the intensity of the explosion in this geometrical configuration. At low flow rates, although the injected air increases the void fraction, the concurrent agitation and mixing increases the intensity of the interaction. At higher flow rates, the increase in void fraction tends to attenuate the propagated pressure wave generated by the explosion. Experimental results show a complete suppression of the vapor explosion at high rates of air injection, corresponding to an average void fraction of larger than 30%. (author)

  15. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Darvishi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  16. Agent Based Modeling of Human Gut Microbiome Interactions and Perturbations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Shashkova

    Full Text Available Intestinal microbiota plays an important role in the human health. It is involved in the digestion and protects the host against external pathogens. Examination of the intestinal microbiome interactions is required for understanding of the community influence on host health. Studies of the microbiome can provide insight on methods of improving health, including specific clinical procedures for individual microbial community composition modification and microbiota correction by colonizing with new bacterial species or dietary changes.In this work we report an agent-based model of interactions between two bacterial species and between species and the gut. The model is based on reactions describing bacterial fermentation of polysaccharides to acetate and propionate and fermentation of acetate to butyrate. Antibiotic treatment was chosen as disturbance factor and used to investigate stability of the system. System recovery after antibiotic treatment was analyzed as dependence on quantity of feedback interactions inside the community, therapy duration and amount of antibiotics. Bacterial species are known to mutate and acquire resistance to the antibiotics. The ability to mutate was considered to be a stochastic process, under this suggestion ratio of sensitive to resistant bacteria was calculated during antibiotic therapy and recovery.The model confirms a hypothesis of feedbacks mechanisms necessity for providing functionality and stability of the system after disturbance. High fraction of bacterial community was shown to mutate during antibiotic treatment, though sensitive strains could become dominating after recovery. The recovery of sensitive strains is explained by fitness cost of the resistance. The model demonstrates not only quantitative dynamics of bacterial species, but also gives an ability to observe the emergent spatial structure and its alteration, depending on various feedback mechanisms. Visual version of the model shows that spatial

  17. Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willem, Lander; Stijven, Sean; Tijskens, Engelbert; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel; Broeckhove, Jan

    2015-06-02

    Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential of current high-performance workstations. We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simulation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26% up to more than 70%. We have investigated the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large difference. Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance.

  18. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  19. Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.

    2014-10-01

    One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.

  20. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

  1. PHOTOSPHERIC EMISSION FROM STRATIFIED JETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Hirotaka; Nagataki, Shigehiro; Ono, Masaomi; Lee, Shiu-Hang; Mao, Jirong; Yamada, Shoichi; Pe'er, Asaf; Mizuta, Akira; Harikae, Seiji

    2013-01-01

    We explore photospheric emissions from stratified two-component jets, wherein a highly relativistic spine outflow is surrounded by a wider and less relativistic sheath outflow. Thermal photons are injected in regions of high optical depth and propagated until the photons escape at the photosphere. Because of the presence of shear in velocity (Lorentz factor) at the boundary of the spine and sheath region, a fraction of the injected photons are accelerated using a Fermi-like acceleration mechanism such that a high-energy power-law tail is formed in the resultant spectrum. We show, in particular, that if a velocity shear with a considerable variance in the bulk Lorentz factor is present, the high-energy part of observed gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) photon spectrum can be explained by this photon acceleration mechanism. We also show that the accelerated photons might also account for the origin of the extra-hard power-law component above the bump of the thermal-like peak seen in some peculiar bursts (e.g., GRB 090510, 090902B, 090926A). We demonstrate that time-integrated spectra can also reproduce the low-energy spectrum of GRBs consistently using a multi-temperature effect when time evolution of the outflow is considered. Last, we show that the empirical E p -L p relation can be explained by differences in the outflow properties of individual sources

  2. Agent-based inter-organizational systems in advanced logistics operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Wasesa (Meditya)

    2017-01-01

    textabstract“Agent-based Inter-organizational Systems (ABIOS) in Advanced Logistics Operations” explores the concepts, the design, and the role and impact of agent-based systems to improve coordination and performance of logistics operations. The dissertation consists of one conceptual study and

  3. An Agent Based Modelling Approach for Multi-Stakeholder Analysis of City Logistics Solutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anand, N.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents a comprehensive framework for multi-stakeholder analysis of city logistics solutions using agent based modeling. The framework describes different stages for the systematic development of an agent based model for the city logistics domain. The framework includes a

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of an Agent-Based Model of Culture's Consequences for Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, S.L.G.E.; Jonker, C.M.; Hofstede, G.J.; Verwaart, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of an agent-based model’s sensitivity to changes in parameters that describe the agents’ cultural background, relational parameters, and parameters of the decision functions. As agent-based models may be very sensitive to small changes in parameter values, it is of

  5. Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: challenges and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Filatova, T.; Verburg, P.H.; Parker, D.C.; Stannard, S.R.

    2013-01-01

    Departing from the comprehensive reviews carried out in the field, we identify the key challenges that agent-based methodology faces when modeling coupled socio-ecological systems. Focusing primarily on the papers presented in this thematic issue, we review progress in spatial agent-based models

  6. A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

  7. In Defense of Agent-Based Virtue Ethics | Van Zyl | Philosophical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In 'Against agent-based virtue ethics' (2004) Michael Brady rejects agent-based virtue ethics on the grounds that it fails to capture the commonsense distinction between an agent's doing the right thing, and her doing it for the right reason. In his view, the failure to account for this distinction has paradoxical results, making it ...

  8. New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2017-12-01

    Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

  9. A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gracanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Eltoweissy, Mohamed; Hinchey, Michael G.; Bohner, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

  10. Study of the attractor structure of an agent-based sociological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timpanaro, Andre M; Prado, Carmen P C, E-mail: timpa@if.usp.br, E-mail: prado@if.usp.br [Instituto de Fisica da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2011-03-01

    The Sznajd model is a sociophysics model that is based in the Potts model, and used for describing opinion propagation in a society. It employs an agent-based approach and interaction rules favouring pairs of agreeing agents. It has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections (see for instance the works of A. T. Bernardes and R. N. Costa Filho), but its stationary states are always consensus states. In order to explain more complicated behaviours, we have modified the bounded confidence idea (introduced before in other opinion models, like the Deffuant model), with the introduction of prejudices and biases (we called this modification confidence rules), and have adapted it to the discrete Sznajd model. This generalized Sznajd model is able to reproduce almost all of the previous versions of the Sznajd model, by using appropriate choices of parameters. We solved the attractor structure of the resulting model in a mean-field approach and made Monte Carlo simulations in a Barabasi-Albert network. These simulations show great similarities with the mean-field, for the tested cases of 3 and 4 opinions. The dynamical systems approach that we devised allows for a deeper understanding of the potential of the Sznajd model as an opinion propagation model and can be easily extended to other models, like the voter model. Our modification of the bounded confidence rule can also be readily applied to other opinion propagation models.

  11. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy H. Auchincloss

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

  13. Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

    2015-11-01

    There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

  14. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C; Hyoseop Lee,; Wonsuck Lee,

    2011-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents

  15. Agent-Based Simulation and Assessment of NAS Security and Safety, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The key innovation proposed here is the use of agent-based modeling and simulation to evaluate the safety of the National Airspace under crisis operations and...

  16. Agent-Based Modeling for Testing and Designing Novel Decentralized Command and Control System Paradigms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bonabeau, Eric; Hunt, Carl W; Gaudiano, Paolo

    2003-01-01

    Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a recent simulation modeling technique that consists of modeling a system from the bottom up, capturing the interactions taking place between the system's constituent units...

  17. Agent-based game theory modeling for driverless vehicles at intersections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    This report presents three research efforts that were published in various journals. The first research effort presents a reactive-driving agent based algorithm for modeling driver left turn gap acceptance behavior at signalized intersections. This m...

  18. Practicality of Agent-Based Modeling of Civil Violence: an Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Thron, Christopher; Jackson, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Joshua Epstein (2002) proposed a simple agent-based model to describe the formation and evolution of spontaneous civil violence (such as riots or violent demonstrations). In this paper we study the practical applicability of Epstein's model.

  19. An Evolutionary, Agent-Based Model to Aid in Computer Intrusion Detection and Prevention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shargel, Ben; Bonabeau, Eric; Budynek, Julien; Gaudiano, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a realistic agent-based simulation model of hacker behavior. In the model, hacker scripts are generated using a simple but powerful hacker grammar that has the potential to cover all possible hacker scripts...

  20. Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams. Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-12

    Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling Tristan E. Johnson, Ph.D. Learning ...REPORT DATE AUG 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Strategies to Enhance Online Learning ...TeamsTeam Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams: Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

  1. Assessing Consequential Scenarios in a Complex Operational Environment Using Agent Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-16

    capabilities and maturities of 4 subelements: cognition, judgment, emotion , and critical thinking. Each model represents these subelements differently...CADSIM) 102 5.2 Evaluating Agent-Based Technologies: Maturity Level and the Human Domain 103 5.2.1 Evaluation of Maturity Level 103 5.2.2 Human...describes the maturity of agent-based models, ranging from realistic caricatures to quantitatively characterized phenomena at the microlevel. This

  2. An agent-based model for integrated emotion regulation and contagion in socially affected decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Manzoor, A.; Treur, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses an agent-based computational social agent model for the integration of emotion regulation, emotion contagion and decision making in a social context. The model integrates emotion-related valuing, in order to analyse the role of emotions in socially affected decision making. The agent-based model is illustrated for the interaction between two persons. Simulation experiments for different kinds of scenarios help to understand how decisions can be affected by regulating the ...

  3. Conceptual Framework for Agent-Based Modeling of Customer-Oriented Supply Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Solano-Vanegas , Clara ,; Carrillo-Ramos , Angela; Montoya-Torres , Jairo ,

    2015-01-01

    Part 3: Collaboration Frameworks; International audience; Supply Networks (SN) are complex systems involving the interaction of different actors, very often, with different objectives and goals. Among the different existing modeling approaches, agent-based systems can properly represent the autonomous behavior of SN links and, simultaneously, observe the general response of the system as a result of individual actions. Most of research using agent-based modeling in SN focuses on production is...

  4. Agent-Based Model of Price Competition and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Zhang; David Levinson; Shanjiang Zhu

    2007-01-01

    Using consistent agent-based techniques, this research models the decision-making processes of users and infrastructure owner/operators to explore the welfare consequence of price competition, capacity choice, and product differentiation on congested transportation networks. Component models include: (1) An agent-based travel demand model wherein each traveler has learning capabilities and unique characteristics (e.g. value of time); (2) Econometric facility provision cost models; and (3) Rep...

  5. The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

  6. The Hunt Opinion Model—An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apriasz, Rafał; Krueger, Tyll; Marcjasz, Grzegorz; Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: “snobs” and “followers” (or “opinion hunters”, hence the name of the model). Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model—quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links) and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists). Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model), we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched) but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf’s bifurcation. PMID:27835679

  7. Linking Cognitive and Social Aspects of Sound Change Using Agent-Based Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Jonathan; Kleber, Felicitas; Reubold, Ulrich; Schiel, Florian; Stevens, Mary

    2018-03-26

    The paper defines the core components of an interactive-phonetic (IP) sound change model. The starting point for the IP-model is that a phonological category is often skewed phonetically in a certain direction by the production and perception of speech. A prediction of the model is that sound change is likely to come about as a result of perceiving phonetic variants in the direction of the skew and at the probabilistic edge of the listener's phonological category. The results of agent-based computational simulations applied to the sound change in progress, /u/-fronting in Standard Southern British, were consistent with this hypothesis. The model was extended to sound changes involving splits and mergers by using the interaction between the agents to drive the phonological reclassification of perceived speech signals. The simulations showed no evidence of any acoustic change when this extended model was applied to Australian English data in which /s/ has been shown to retract due to coarticulation in /str/ clusters. Some agents nevertheless varied in their phonological categorizations during interaction between /str/ and /ʃtr/: This vacillation may represent the potential for sound change to occur. The general conclusion is that many types of sound change are the outcome of how phonetic distributions are oriented with respect to each other, their association to phonological classes, and how these types of information vary between speakers that happen to interact with each other. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

  8. The Hunt Opinion Model-An Agent Based Approach to Recurring Fashion Cycles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Apriasz

    Full Text Available We study a simple agent-based model of the recurring fashion cycles in the society that consists of two interacting communities: "snobs" and "followers" (or "opinion hunters", hence the name of the model. Followers conform to all other individuals, whereas snobs conform only to their own group and anticonform to the other. The model allows to examine the role of the social structure, i.e. the influence of the number of inter-links between the two communities, as well as the role of the stability of links. The latter is accomplished by considering two versions of the same model-quenched (parameterized by fraction L of fixed inter-links and annealed (parameterized by probability p that a given inter-link exists. Using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical treatment (the latter only for the annealed model, we show that there is a critical fraction of inter-links, above which recurring cycles occur. For p ≤ 0.5 we derive a relation between parameters L and p that allows to compare both models and show that the critical value of inter-connections, p*, is the same for both versions of the model (annealed and quenched but the period of a fashion cycle is shorter for the quenched model. Near the critical point, the cycles are irregular and a change of fashion is difficult to predict. For the annealed model we also provide a deeper theoretical analysis. We conjecture on topological grounds that the so-called saddle node heteroclinic bifurcation appears at p*. For p ≥ 0.5 we show analytically the existence of the second critical value of p, for which the system undergoes Hopf's bifurcation.

  9. Grain distinct stratified nanolayers in aluminium alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donatus, U., E-mail: uyimedonatus@yahoo.com [School of Materials, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, England (United Kingdom); Thompson, G.E.; Zhou, X.; Alias, J. [School of Materials, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, England (United Kingdom); Tsai, I.-L. [Oxford Instruments NanoAnalysis, HP12 2SE, High Wycombe (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-15

    The grains of aluminium alloys have stratified nanolayers which determine their mechanical and chemical responses. In this study, the nanolayers were revealed in the grains of AA6082 (T6 and T7 conditions), AA5083-O and AA2024-T3 alloys by etching the alloys in a solution comprising 20 g Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3} + 30 ml HPO{sub 3} in 1 L H{sub 2}O. Microstructural examination was conducted on selected grains of interest using scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction technique. It was observed that the nanolayers are orientation dependent and are parallel to the {100} planes. They have ordered and repeated tunnel squares that are flawed at the sides which are aligned in the <100> directions. These flawed tunnel squares dictate the tunnelling corrosion morphology as well as appearing to have an affect on the arrangement and sizes of the precipitation hardening particles. The inclination of the stratified nanolayers, their interpacing, and the groove sizes have significant influence on the corrosion behaviour and seeming influence on the strengthening mechanism of the investigated aluminium alloys. - Highlights: • Stratified nanolayers in aluminium alloy grains. • Relationship of the stratified nanolayers with grain orientation. • Influence of the inclinations of the stratified nanolayers on corrosion. • Influence of the nanolayers interspacing and groove sizes on hardness and corrosion.

  10. On Religion and Language Evolutions Seen Through Mathematical and Agent Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.

    Religions and languages are social variables, like age, sex, wealth or political opinions, to be studied like any other organizational parameter. In fact, religiosity is one of the most important sociological aspects of populations. Languages are also obvious characteristics of the human species. Religions, languages appear though also disappear. All religions and languages evolve and survive when they adapt to the society developments. On the other hand, the number of adherents of a given religion, or the number of persons speaking a language is not fixed in time, - nor space. Several questions can be raised. E.g. from a oscopic point of view : How many religions/languages exist at a given time? What is their distribution? What is their life time? How do they evolve? From a "microscopic" view point: can one invent agent based models to describe oscopic aspects? Do simple evolution equations exist? How complicated must be a model? These aspects are considered in the present note. Basic evolution equations are outlined and critically, though briefly, discussed. Similarities and differences between religions and languages are summarized. Cases can be illustrated with historical facts and data. It is stressed that characteristic time scales are different. It is emphasized that "external fields" are historically very relevant in the case of religions, rending the study more " interesting" within a mechanistic approach based on parity and symmetry of clusters concepts. Yet the modern description of human societies through networks in reported simulations is still lacking some mandatory ingredients, i.e. the non scalar nature of the nodes, and the non binary aspects of nodes and links, though for the latter this is already often taken into account, including directions. From an analytical point of view one can consider a population independently of the others. It is intuitively accepted, but also found from the statistical analysis of the frequency distribution that an

  11. The Emergence of Climate Change and Mitigation Action by Society: An Agent-Based Scenario Discovery Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  12. Autism Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español Improving the lives of all affected by autism. The Autism Society is the nation's leading grassroots ... more Improving the lives of all affected by autism. The Autism Society is the nation's leading grassroots ...

  13. Stratified charge rotary engine for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mount, R. E.; Parente, A. M.; Hady, W. F.

    1986-01-01

    A development history, a current development status assessment, and a design feature and performance capabilities account are given for stratified-charge rotary engines applicable to aircraft propulsion. Such engines are capable of operating on Jet-A fuel with substantial cost savings, improved altitude capability, and lower fuel consumption by comparison with gas turbine powerplants. Attention is given to the current development program of a 400-hp engine scheduled for initial operations in early 1990. Stratified charge rotary engines are also applicable to ground power units, airborne APUs, shipboard generators, and vehicular engines.

  14. Agent-Based Decision Control—How to Appreciate Multivariate Optimisation in Architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negendahl, Kristoffer; Perkov, Thomas Holmer; Kolarik, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    , the method is applied to a multivariate optimisation problem. The aim is specifically to demonstrate optimisation for entire building energy consumption, daylight distribution and capital cost. Based on the demonstrations Moth’s ability to find local minima is discussed. It is concluded that agent-based...... in the early design stage. The main focus is to demonstrate the optimisation method, which is done in two ways. Firstly, the newly developed agent-based optimisation algorithm named Moth is tested on three different single objective search spaces. Here Moth is compared to two evolutionary algorithms. Secondly...... optimisation algorithms like Moth open up for new uses of optimisation in the early design stage. With Moth the final outcome is less dependent on pre- and post-processing, and Moth allows user intervention during optimisation. Therefore, agent-based models for optimisation such as Moth can be a powerful...

  15. A Multi-Agent Based Energy Management Solution for Integrated Buildings and Microgrid System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan; Mirian, Maryam S.

    2017-01-01

    -reflex to complex learning agents are designed and implemented to cooperate with each other to reach an optimal operating strategy for the mentioned integrated energy system (IES) while meeting the system’s objectives and related constraints. The optimization process for the EMS is defined as a coordinated......In this paper, an ontology-driven multi-agent based energy management system (EMS) is proposed for monitoring and optimal control of an integrated homes/buildings and microgrid system with various renewable energy resources (RESs) and controllable loads. Different agents ranging from simple...... distributed generation (DG) and demand response (DR) management problem within the studied environment and is solved by the proposed agent-based approach utilizing cooperation and communication among decision agents. To verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed multi-agent based EMS, several...

  16. Between Complexity and Parsimony: Can Agent-Based Modelling Resolve the Trade-off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helle Ørsted; Malawska, Anna Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    to BR- based policy studies would be to couple research on bounded ra-tionality with agent-based modeling. Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the behavior and interactions of any number of decision makers in a dynamic system. Agent-based models are better suited than...... are general equilibrium models for capturing behavior patterns of complex systems. ABMs may have the potential to represent complex systems without oversimplifying them. At the same time, research in bounded rationality and behavioral economics has already yielded many insights that could inform the modeling......While Herbert Simon espoused development of general models of behavior, he also strongly advo-cated that these models be based on realistic assumptions about humans and therefore reflect the complexity of human cognition and social systems (Simon 1997). Hence, the model of bounded rationality...

  17. Derivation of Continuum Models from An Agent-based Cancer Model: Optimization and Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voulgarelis, Dimitrios; Velayudhan, Ajoy; Smith, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Agent-based models provide a formidable tool for exploring complex and emergent behaviour of biological systems as well as accurate results but with the drawback of needing a lot of computational power and time for subsequent analysis. On the other hand, equation-based models can more easily be used for complex analysis in a much shorter timescale. This paper formulates an ordinary differential equations and stochastic differential equations model to capture the behaviour of an existing agent-based model of tumour cell reprogramming and applies it to optimization of possible treatment as well as dosage sensitivity analysis. For certain values of the parameter space a close match between the equation-based and agent-based models is achieved. The need for division of labour between the two approaches is explored. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  18. Rediscovering the Economics of Keynes in an Agent-Based Computational Setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    The aim of this paper is to use agent-based computational economics to explore the economic thinking of Keynes. Taking his starting point at the macroeconomic level, Keynes argued that economic systems are characterized by fundamental uncertainty - an uncertainty that makes rule-based behaviour...... and reliance on monetary magnitudes more optimal to the economic agent than profit- and utility optimazation in the traditional sense. Unfortunately more systematic studies of the properties of such a system was not possible at the time of Keynes. The system envisioned by Keynes holds a lot of properties...... in commen with what we today call complex dynamic systems, and today we may aply the method of agent-based computational economics to the ideas of Keynes. The presented agent-based Keynesian model demonstrate, as argued by Keynes, that the economy can selforganize without relying on price movement...

  19. Consentaneous agent-based and stochastic model of the financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

    2014-01-01

    We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation.

  20. Nitrogen transformations in stratified aquatic microbial ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Revsbech, N. P.; Risgaard-Petersen, N.; Schramm, A.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract  New analytical methods such as advanced molecular techniques and microsensors have resulted in new insights about how nitrogen transformations in stratified microbial systems such as sediments and biofilms are regulated at a µm-mm scale. A large and ever-expanding knowledge base about n...

  1. Implementation and design of a communication system of an agent-based automated substation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Yong-jun; LIU Yu-tao; ZHANG Dan-hui

    2006-01-01

    A substation system requires that communication be transmitted reliably,accurately and in real-time.Aimed at solving problems,e.g.,flow confliction and sensitive data transmission,a model of the communication system of an agent-based automated substation is introduced.The running principle is discussed in detail and each type of agent is discussed further.At the end,the realization of the agent system applied to the substation is presented.The outcome shows that the communication system of an agent-based automated substation improves the accuracy and reliability of the data transfer and presents it in realtime.

  2. Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed; Bowling, Shannon R.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

  3. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  4. Toward Agent-Based Models of the Development And Evolution of Business Relations and Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Ian F.; Marks, Robert E.; Young, Louise

    Firms achieve competitive advantage in part through the development of cooperative relations with other firms and organisations. We describe a program of research designed to map and model the development of cooperative inter-firm relations, including the processes and paths by which firms may evolve from adversarial to more cooperative relations. Narrative-event-history methods will be used to develop stylised histories of the emergence of business relations in various contexts and to identify relevant causal mechanisms to be included in the agent-based models of relationship and network evolution. The relationship histories will provide the means of assuring the agent-based models developed.

  5. An Agent-Based Model for Studying Child Maltreatment and Child Maltreatment Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard W.

    This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the dynamics of child maltreatment and child maltreatment prevention. The developed model follows the principles of complex systems science and explicitly models a community and its families with multi-level factors and interconnections across the social ecology. This makes it possible to experiment how different factors and prevention strategies can affect the rate of child maltreatment. We present the background of this work and give an overview of the agent-based model and show some simulation results.

  6. Mass Society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borch, Christian

    2017-01-01

    the negative features usually ascribed by late nineteenth-century crowd psychology to spontaneous crowds, and attributes these to the entire social fabric. However, in contrast to crowd psychology, theorists of mass society often place greater emphasis on how capitalism, technological advances, or demographic......Mass society is a societal diagnosis that emphasizes – usually in a pejorative, modernity critical manner – a series of traits allegedly associated with modern society, such as the leveling of individuality, moral decay, alienation, and isolation. As such, the notion of mass society generalizes...... developments condition such negative features, and some theorists argue that mass society produces a propensity to totalitarianism. Discussions of mass society culminated in the early and mid-twentieth century....

  7. Planetary Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdin, P.

    2000-11-01

    Carl Sagan, Bruce Murray and Louis Friedman founded the non-profit Planetary Society in 1979 to advance the exploration of the solar system and to continue the search for extraterrestrial life. The Society has its headquarters in Pasadena, California, but is international in scope, with 100 000 members worldwide, making it the largest space interest group in the world. The Society funds a var...

  8. Toward an agent-based patient-physician model for the adoption of continuous glucose monitoring technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verella, J Tipan; Patek, Stephen D

    2009-03-01

    Health care is a major component of the U.S. economy, and tremendous research and development efforts are directed toward new technologies in this arena. Unfortunately few tools exist for predicting outcomes associated with new medical products, including whether new technologies will find widespread use within the target population. Questions of technology adoption are rife within the diabetes technology community, and we particularly consider the long-term prognosis for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology. We present an approach to the design and analysis of an agent model that describes the process of CGM adoption among patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), their physicians, and related stakeholders. We particularly focus on patient-physician interactions, with patients discovering CGM technology through word-of-mouth communication and through advertising, applying pressure to their physicians in the context of CGM device adoption, and physicians, concerned about liability, looking to peers for a general level of acceptance of the technology before recommending CGM to their patients. Repeated simulation trials of the agent-based model show that the adoption process reflects the heterogeneity of the adopting community. We also find that the effect of the interaction between patients and physicians is agents. Each physician, say colored by the nature of the environment as defined by the model parameters. We find that, by being able to represent the diverse perspectives of different types of stakeholders, agent-based models can offer useful insights into the adoption process. Models of this sort may eventually prove to be useful in helping physicians, other health care providers, patient advocacy groups, third party payers, and device manufacturers understand the impact of their decisions about new technologies. (c) 2009 Diabetes Technology Society.

  9. How new concepts become universal scientific approaches: insights from citation network analysis of agent-based complex systems science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenot, Christian E

    2018-03-14

    Progress in understanding and managing complex systems comprised of decision-making agents, such as cells, organisms, ecosystems or societies, is-like many scientific endeavours-limited by disciplinary boundaries. These boundaries, however, are moving and can actively be made porous or even disappear. To study this process, I advanced an original bibliometric approach based on network analysis to track and understand the development of the model-based science of agent-based complex systems (ACS). I analysed research citations between the two communities devoted to ACS research, namely agent-based (ABM) and individual-based modelling (IBM). Both terms refer to the same approach, yet the former is preferred in engineering and social sciences, while the latter prevails in natural sciences. This situation provided a unique case study for grasping how a new concept evolves distinctly across scientific domains and how to foster convergence into a universal scientific approach. The present analysis based on novel hetero-citation metrics revealed the historical development of ABM and IBM, confirmed their past disjointedness, and detected their progressive merger. The separation between these synonymous disciplines had silently opposed the free flow of knowledge among ACS practitioners and thereby hindered the transfer of methodological advances and the emergence of general systems theories. A surprisingly small number of key publications sparked the ongoing fusion between ABM and IBM research. Beside reviews raising awareness of broad-spectrum issues, generic protocols for model formulation and boundary-transcending inference strategies were critical means of science integration. Accessible broad-spectrum software similarly contributed to this change. From the modelling viewpoint, the discovery of the unification of ABM and IBM demonstrates that a wide variety of systems substantiate the premise of ACS research that microscale behaviours of agents and system-level dynamics

  10. Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krejci, Caroline C; Stone, Richard T; Dorneich, Michael C; Gilbert, Stephen B

    2016-02-01

    Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  11. Transforming Society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig; Dahl Højgaard, Pia

    2017-01-01

    , was a result of transforming society from a feudal system to a capitalistic and market based economy. This story is interesting in itself - but it also provides a key to understanding the cadastral system of today. The system has evolved over time and now serves a whole range of functions in society. The paper...

  12. Rediscovering the Economics of Keynes in an Agent-Based Computational Setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to use agent-based computational economics to explore the economic thinking of Keynes. Taking his starting point at the macroeconomic level, Keynes argued that economic systems are characterized by fundamental uncertainty — an uncertainty that makes rule-based behavior...

  13. Numerical Problems and Agent-Based Models for a Mass Transfer Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthi, Manohar; Shea, Lonnie D.; Snurr, Randall Q.

    2009-01-01

    Problems requiring numerical solutions of differential equations or the use of agent-based modeling are presented for use in a course on mass transfer. These problems were solved using the popular technical computing language MATLABTM. Students were introduced to MATLAB via a problem with an analytical solution. A more complex problem to which no…

  14. Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

  15. Agent-based Modeling Automated: Data-driven Generation of Innovation Diffusion Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jensen, T.; Chappin, E.J.L.

    2016-01-01

    Simulation modeling is useful to gain insights into driving mechanisms of diffusion of innovations. This study aims to introduce automation to make identification of such mechanisms with agent-based simulation modeling less costly in time and labor. We present a novel automation procedure in which

  16. An agent-based model on disease management in potato cultivation in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacilly, F.C.A.; Hofstede, G.J.; Groot, J.C.J.; Lammerts Van Bueren, E.

    2015-01-01

    In this project the host-pathogen system of potato (Solanum tuberosum) - late blight (Phytophthora infestans) was analysed as a model system to study management of crop-disease interactions. Resistant cultivars play an important role in sustainable management of the disease. We used an agent-based

  17. Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawlor, Jennifer A; McGirr, Sara

    2017-12-01

    Recently, systems thinking and systems science approaches have gained popularity in the field of evaluation; however, there has been relatively little exploration of how evaluators could use quantitative tools to assist in the implementation of systems approaches therein. The purpose of this paper is to explore potential uses of one such quantitative tool, agent-based modeling, in evaluation practice. To this end, we define agent-based modeling and offer potential uses for it in typical evaluation activities, including: engaging stakeholders, selecting an intervention, modeling program theory, setting performance targets, and interpreting evaluation results. We provide demonstrative examples from published agent-based modeling efforts both inside and outside the field of evaluation for each of the evaluative activities discussed. We further describe potential pitfalls of this tool and offer cautions for evaluators who may chose to implement it in their practice. Finally, the article concludes with a discussion of the future of agent-based modeling in evaluation practice and a call for more formal exploration of this tool as well as other approaches to simulation modeling in the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraan, O.; Kramer, G. J.; Nikolic, I.

    2018-01-01

    Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector

  19. Methods for Model-Based Reasoning within Agent-Based Ambient Intelligence Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosse, T.; Both, F.; Gerritsen, C.; Hoogendoorn, M.; Treur, J.

    2012-01-01

    Within agent-based Ambient Intelligence applications agents react to humans based on information obtained by sensoring and their knowledge about human functioning. Appropriate types of reactions depend on the extent to which an agent understands the human and is able to interpret the available

  20. Learning Natural Selection in 4th Grade with Multi-Agent-Based Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how elementary school students develop multi-level explanations of population dynamics in a simple predator-prey ecosystem, through scaffolded interactions with a multi-agent-based computational model (MABM). The term "agent" in an MABM indicates individual computational objects or actors (e.g., cars), and these…

  1. Modeling investor sentiment and overconfidence in an agent-based stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

    2010-01-01

    Agent-based stock markets as bottom-up models of financial markets allow us to study the link between individual investor behavior and aggregate market phenomena, and as such are a useful tool for investigating the implications of behavioral finance and investor psychology. In this paper we want to

  2. Agent-based land markets: Heterogeneous agents, land proces and urban land use change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Parker, Dawn C.; van der Veen, A.; Amblard, F.

    2007-01-01

    We construct a spatially explicit agent-based model of a bilateral land market. Heterogeneous agents form their bid and ask prices for land based on the utility that they obtain from a certain location (houte/land) and base on the state of the market (an excess of demand or supply). We underline the

  3. An agent-based information management model of the Chinese pig sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, S.A.; Kramer, M.R.; Hofstede, G.J.; Roozmand, O.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of a selected top-down measure (what-if scenario) on actual agent behaviour and total system behaviour by means of an agent-based simulation model, when agents’ behaviour cannot fully be managed because the agents are autonomous. The Chinese pork sector serves as

  4. Evaluating urban parking policies with agent-based model of driver parking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, C.J.C.M.; Benenson, I.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an explicit agent-based model of parking search in a city. In the model, “drivers” drive toward their destination, search for parking, park, remain at the parking place, and leave. The city’s infrastructure is represented by a high-resolution geographic information system (GIS)

  5. Targeting and timing promotional activities : An agent-based model for the takeoff of new products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delre, S. A.; Jager, W.; Bijmolt, T. H. A.; Janssen, M. A.

    Many marketing efforts focus on promotional activities that support the launch of new products. Promotional strategies may play a crucial role in the early stages of the product life cycle, and determine to a large extent the diffusion of a new product. This paper proposes an agent-based model to

  6. Data-driven Travel Demand Modelling and Agent-based Traffic Simulation in Amsterdam Urban Area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melnikov, V.R.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Lees, M.H.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this project is the development of a large-scale agent-based traffic simulation system for Amsterdam urban area, validated on sensor data and adjusted for decision support in critical situations and for policy making in sustainable city development, emission control and electric car

  7. Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

  8. Agent-based Simulation of Reactive, Pro-active, and Social Animal Behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.; Mira, J.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper it is shown how animal behaviour can be simulated in an agent-based manner. Different models are shown for different types of behaviour, varying from purely reactive behaviour to pro-active and social behaviour. The compositional development method for multi-agent systems DESIRE and

  9. An Interactive Tool for Creating Multi-Agent Systems and Interactive Agent-based Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik Hautop; Pagliarini, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Utilizing principles from parallel and distributed processing combined with inspiration from modular robotics, we developed the modular interactive tiles. As an educational tool, the modular interactive tiles facilitate the learning of multi-agent systems and interactive agent-based games...

  10. Overconfident investors in the LLS agent-based artificial financial market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

    2009-01-01

    Agent-based artificial financial markets are bottom-up models of financial markets which explore the mapping from the micro level of individual investor behavior into the macro level of aggregate market phenomena. It has been recently recognized in the literature that such (agentbased) models are

  11. A game theory strategy to integrate distributed agent-based functions in smart grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, P.H.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing incorporation of renewable energy sources and the emergence of new forms and patterns of electricity consumption are contributing to the upsurge in the complexity of power grids. A bottom-up-agent-based approach is able to handle the new environment, such that the system reliability

  12. Agent-Based Modeling of Consumer Decision making Process Based on Power Distance and Personality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roozmand, O.; Ghasem-Aghaee, N.; Hofstede, G.J.; Nematbakhsh, M.A.; Baraani, A.; Verwaart, T.

    2011-01-01

    Simulating consumer decision making processes involves different disciplines such as: sociology, social psychology, marketing, and computer science. In this paper, we propose an agent-based conceptual and computational model of consumer decision-making based on culture, personality and human needs.

  13. Review of the systems biology of the immune system using agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinde, Snehal B; Kurhekar, Manish P

    2018-06-01

    The immune system is an inherent protection system in vertebrate animals including human beings that exhibit properties such as self-organisation, self-adaptation, learning, and recognition. It interacts with the other allied systems such as the gut and lymph nodes. There is a need for immune system modelling to know about its complex internal mechanism, to understand how it maintains the homoeostasis, and how it interacts with the other systems. There are two types of modelling techniques used for the simulation of features of the immune system: equation-based modelling (EBM) and agent-based modelling. Owing to certain shortcomings of the EBM, agent-based modelling techniques are being widely used. This technique provides various predictions for disease causes and treatments; it also helps in hypothesis verification. This study presents a review of agent-based modelling of the immune system and its interactions with the gut and lymph nodes. The authors also review the modelling of immune system interactions during tuberculosis and cancer. In addition, they also outline the future research directions for the immune system simulation through agent-based techniques such as the effects of stress on the immune system, evolution of the immune system, and identification of the parameters for a healthy immune system.

  14. Easing the adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in tourism research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johnson, Peter; Nicholls, Sarah; Student, Jillian; Amelung, Bas; Baggio, Rodolfo; Balbi, Stefano; Boavida-Portugal, Ines; Jong, de Eline; Hofstede, G.J.; Lamers, M.A.J.; Pons, Marc; Steiger, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the generative approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This research

  15. An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valbuena, D.F.; Verburg, P.H.; Bregt, A.K.; Ligtenberg, A.

    2010-01-01

    Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local

  16. Integration agent-based models and GIS as a virtual urban dynamic laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Liu, Miaolong

    2007-06-01

    Based on the Agent-based Model and spatial data model, a tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and Agent-based Model (ABM) is to be discussed in this paper. The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena such as urban dynamic. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, the agent-based model and spatial data model are discussed, and then the relationships affecting spatial data model and agent-based process models interaction. After that, a realistic crowd flow simulation experiment is presented. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS as a virtual laboratory applicable for simulating pedestrian flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

  17. Use of Agent Based Modelling to Investigate the Dynamics of Slum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Urban planners and policy makers face challenges in effective management of slum ... slum characteristics using various remote sensing and artificial intelligence ... an empirically informed agent based prototype that can simulate future patterns ... The study incorporates physical, environmental, social and economic factors ...

  18. MamMoeT : An intelligent agent-based communication support platform for multimodal transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dullaert, Wout; Neutens, Tijs; Vanden Berghe, Greet; Vermeulen, Tijs; Vernimmen, Bert; Witlox, Frank

    In this paper, an intelligent agent-based communication support platform for multimodal transport is developed. The rationale for doing so is found in the potential of such a system to increase cost efficiency, service and safety for different transport-related actors. Although, at present several

  19. Multi-dimensional information diffusion and balancing market supply: an agent-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osinga, S.A.; Kramer, M.R.; Hofstede, G.J.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    This agent-based information management model is designed to explore how multi-dimensional information, spreading through a population of agents (for example farmers) affects market supply. Farmers make quality decisions that must be aligned with available markets. Markets distinguish themselves by

  20. An agent-based model for integrated emotion regulation and contagion in socially affected decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manzoor, A.; Treur, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses an agent-based computational social agent model for the integration of emotion regulation, emotion contagion and decision making in a social context. The model integrates emotion-related valuing, in order to analyse the role of emotions in socially affected decision making. The

  1. Lapse of time effects on tax evasion in an agent-based econophysics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibold, Götz; Pickhardt, Michael

    2013-05-01

    We investigate an inhomogeneous Ising model in the context of tax evasion dynamics where different types of agents are parameterized via local temperatures and magnetic fields. In particular, we analyze the impact of lapse of time effects (i.e. backauditing) and endogenously determined penalty rates on tax compliance. Both features contribute to a microfoundation of agent-based econophysics models of tax evasion.

  2. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zining Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

  3. On the engineering of agent-based simulations of social activities with social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ronald, N.A.; Dignum, V.; Jonker, C.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Context Models of how people move around cities play a role in making decisions about urban and land-use planning. Previous models have been based on space and time, and have neglected the social aspect of travel. Recent work on agent-based modelling shows promise as a new approach, especially for

  4. MC3D modelling of stratified explosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picchi, S.; Berthoud, G.

    1999-01-01

    It is known that a steam explosion can occur in a stratified geometry and that the observed yields are lower than in the case of explosion in a premixture configuration. However, very few models are available to quantify the amount of melt which can be involved and the pressure peak that can be developed. In the stratified application of the MC3D code, mixing and fragmentation of the melt are explained by the growth of Kelvin Helmholtz instabilities due to the shear flow of the two phase coolant above the melt. Such a model is then used to recalculate the Frost-Ciccarelli tin-water experiment. Pressure peak, speed of propagation, bubble shape and erosion height are well reproduced as well as the influence of the inertial constraint (height of the water pool). (author)

  5. MC3D modelling of stratified explosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picchi, S.; Berthoud, G. [DTP/SMTH/LM2, CEA, 38 - Grenoble (France)

    1999-07-01

    It is known that a steam explosion can occur in a stratified geometry and that the observed yields are lower than in the case of explosion in a premixture configuration. However, very few models are available to quantify the amount of melt which can be involved and the pressure peak that can be developed. In the stratified application of the MC3D code, mixing and fragmentation of the melt are explained by the growth of Kelvin Helmholtz instabilities due to the shear flow of the two phase coolant above the melt. Such a model is then used to recalculate the Frost-Ciccarelli tin-water experiment. Pressure peak, speed of propagation, bubble shape and erosion height are well reproduced as well as the influence of the inertial constraint (height of the water pool). (author)

  6. Equipment for extracting and conveying stratified minerals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumenthal, G.; Kunzer, H.; Plaga, K.

    1991-08-14

    This invention relates to equipment for extracting stratified minerals and conveying the said minerals along the working face, comprising a trough shaped conveyor run assembled from lengths, a troughed extraction run in lengths matching the lengths of conveyor troughing, which is linked to the top edge of the working face side of the conveyor troughing with freedom to swivel vertically, and a positively guided chain carrying extraction tools and scrapers along the conveyor and extraction runs.

  7. Inviscid incompressible limits of strongly stratified fluids

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Feireisl, Eduard; Jin, B.J.; Novotný, A.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 89, 3-4 (2014), s. 307-329 ISSN 0921-7134 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/09/0917 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : compressible Navier-Stokes system * anelastic approximation * stratified fluid Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.528, year: 2014 http://iospress.metapress.com/content/d71255745tl50125/?p=969b60ae82634854ab8bd25505ce1f71&pi=3

  8. Russian and Foreign Experience of Integration of Agent-Based Models and Geographic Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin Anatol’evich Gulin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article provides an overview of the mechanisms of integration of agent-based models and GIS technology developed by Russian and foreign researchers. The basic framework of the article is based on critical analysis of domestic and foreign literature (monographs, scientific articles. The study is based on the application of universal scientific research methods: system approach, analysis and synthesis, classification, systematization and grouping, generalization and comparison. The article presents theoretical and methodological bases of integration of agent-based models and geographic information systems. The concept and essence of agent-based models are explained; their main advantages (compared to other modeling methods are identified. The paper characterizes the operating environment of agents as a key concept in the theory of agent-based modeling. It is shown that geographic information systems have a wide range of information resources for calculations, searching, modeling of the real world in various aspects, acting as an effective tool for displaying the agents’ operating environment and allowing to bring the model as close as possible to the real conditions. The authors also focus on a wide range of possibilities for various researches in different spatial and temporal contexts. Comparative analysis of platforms supporting the integration of agent-based models and geographic information systems has been carried out. The authors give examples of complex socio-economic models: the model of a creative city, humanitarian assistance model. In the absence of standards for research results description, the authors focus on the models’ elements such as the characteristics of the agents and their operation environment, agents’ behavior, rules of interaction between the agents and the external environment. The paper describes the possibilities and prospects of implementing these models

  9. Nitrogen transformations in stratified aquatic microbial ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Revsbech, Niels Peter; Risgaard-Petersen, N.; Schramm, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Abstract  New analytical methods such as advanced molecular techniques and microsensors have resulted in new insights about how nitrogen transformations in stratified microbial systems such as sediments and biofilms are regulated at a µm-mm scale. A large and ever-expanding knowledge base about n...... performing dissimilatory reduction of nitrate to ammonium have given new dimensions to the understanding of nitrogen cycling in nature, and the occurrence of these organisms and processes in stratified microbial communities will be described in detail.......Abstract  New analytical methods such as advanced molecular techniques and microsensors have resulted in new insights about how nitrogen transformations in stratified microbial systems such as sediments and biofilms are regulated at a µm-mm scale. A large and ever-expanding knowledge base about...... nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, and dissimilatory reduction of nitrate to ammonium, and about the microorganisms performing the processes, has been produced by use of these techniques. During the last decade the discovery of anammmox bacteria and migrating, nitrate accumulating bacteria...

  10. Large eddy simulation of stably stratified turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Zhi; Zhang Zhaoshun; Cui Guixiang; Xu Chunxiao

    2011-01-01

    Stably stratified turbulence is a common phenomenon in atmosphere and ocean. In this paper the large eddy simulation is utilized for investigating homogeneous stably stratified turbulence numerically at Reynolds number Re = uL/v = 10 2 ∼10 3 and Froude number Fr = u/NL = 10 −2 ∼10 0 in which u is root mean square of velocity fluctuations, L is integral scale and N is Brunt-Vaïsälä frequency. Three sets of computation cases are designed with different initial conditions, namely isotropic turbulence, Taylor Green vortex and internal waves, to investigate the statistical properties from different origins. The computed horizontal and vertical energy spectra are consistent with observation in atmosphere and ocean when the composite parameter ReFr 2 is greater than O(1). It has also been found in this paper that the stratification turbulence can be developed under different initial velocity conditions and the internal wave energy is dominated in the developed stably stratified turbulence.

  11. Civil Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Social Media Facebook @oasofficial Facebook Twitter @oas_official Twitter Newsletters Documents OAS Technology Social Development Summits of the Americas Sustainable Development T Telecommunications Terrorism Tourism Trade Treaties and Agreements W Women Y Youth Strategic Partners Permanent Observers Civil Society

  12. [Causes of emergency dizziness stratified by etiology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Wenying; Liu, Jianguo; Zeng, Hong; Liu, Yugeng; Jia, Weihua; Wang, Honghong; Liu, Bo; Tan, Jing; Li, Changqing

    2014-06-03

    To explore the causes of emergency dizziness stratified to improve the diagnostic efficiency. A total of 1 857 cases of dizziness at our emergency department were collected and their etiologies stratified by age and gender. The top three diagnoses were benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV, 31.7%), hypertension (24.0%) and posterior circulation ischemia (PCI, 20.5%). Stratified by age, the main causes of dizziness included BPPV (n = 6), migraine-associated vertigo (n = 2), unknown cause (n = 1) for the group of vertigo (14.5%) and neurosis (7.3%) for 18-44 years; BPPV (36.8%), hypertension (22.4%) and migraine-associated vertigo (11.2%) for 45-59 years; hypertension (30.8%), PCI (29.8%) and BPPV (22.9%) for 60-74 years; PCI (30.7%), hypertension (28.6%) and BPPV (25.5%) for 75-92 years. BPPV, migraine and neurosis were more common in females while hypertension and PCI predominated in males (all P hypertension, neurosis and migraine showed the following significant demographic features: BPPV, PCI, hypertension, neurosis and migraine may be the main causes of dizziness. BPPV should be considered initially when vertigo was triggered repeatedly by positional change, especially for young and middle-aged women. And the other common causes of dizziness were migraine-associated vertigo, neurosis and Meniere's disease.Hypertension should be screened firstly in middle-aged and elderly patients presenting mainly with head heaviness and stretching. In elders with dizziness, BPPV is second in constituent ratio to PCI and hypertension.In middle-aged and elderly patients with dizziness, psychological factors should be considered and diagnosis and treatment should be offered timely.

  13. White dwarf stars with chemically stratified atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchmore, D.

    1982-01-01

    Recent observations and theory suggest that some white dwarfs may have chemically stratified atmospheres - thin layers of hydrogen lying above helium-rich envelopes. Models of such atmospheres show that a discontinuous temperature inversion can occur at the boundary between the layers. Model spectra for layered atmospheres at 30,000 K and 50,000 K tend to have smaller decrements at 912 A, 504 A, and 228 A than uniform atmospheres would have. On the basis of their continuous extreme ultraviolet spectra, it is possible to distinguish observationally between uniform and layered atmospheres for hot white dwarfs.

  14. Bayesian stratified sampling to assess corpus utility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochberg, J.; Scovel, C.; Thomas, T.; Hall, S.

    1998-12-01

    This paper describes a method for asking statistical questions about a large text corpus. The authors exemplify the method by addressing the question, ``What percentage of Federal Register documents are real documents, of possible interest to a text researcher or analyst?`` They estimate an answer to this question by evaluating 200 documents selected from a corpus of 45,820 Federal Register documents. Bayesian analysis and stratified sampling are used to reduce the sampling uncertainty of the estimate from over 3,100 documents to fewer than 1,000. A possible application of the method is to establish baseline statistics used to estimate recall rates for information retrieval systems.

  15. Stratified B-trees and versioning dictionaries

    OpenAIRE

    Twigg, Andy; Byde, Andrew; Milos, Grzegorz; Moreton, Tim; Wilkes, John; Wilkie, Tom

    2011-01-01

    A classic versioned data structure in storage and computer science is the copy-on-write (CoW) B-tree -- it underlies many of today's file systems and databases, including WAFL, ZFS, Btrfs and more. Unfortunately, it doesn't inherit the B-tree's optimality properties; it has poor space utilization, cannot offer fast updates, and relies on random IO to scale. Yet, nothing better has been developed since. We describe the `stratified B-tree', which beats all known semi-external memory versioned B...

  16. Nonlinear multi-analysis of agent-based financial market dynamics by epidemic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-10-01

    Based on the epidemic dynamical system, we construct a new agent-based financial time series model. In order to check and testify its rationality, we compare the statistical properties of the time series model with the real stock market indices, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index. For analyzing the statistical properties, we combine the multi-parameter analysis with the tail distribution analysis, the modified rescaled range analysis, and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. For a better perspective, the three-dimensional diagrams are used to present the analysis results. The empirical research in this paper indicates that the long-range dependence property and the multifractal phenomenon exist in the real returns and the proposed model. Therefore, the new agent-based financial model can recurrence some important features of real stock markets.

  17. A Novel Approach to Selecting Contractor in Agent-based Multi-sensor Battlefield Reconnaissance Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiong Li

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel approach towards showing how contractor in agent-based simulation for complex warfare system such as multi-sensor battlefield reconnaissance system can be selected in Contract Net Protocol (CNP with high efficiency. We first analyze agent and agent-based simulation framework, CNP and collaborators, and present agents interaction chain used to actualize CNP and establish agents trust network. We then obtain contractor's importance weight and dynamic trust by presenting fuzzy similarity-based algorithm and trust modifying algorithm, thus we propose contractor selecting approach based on maximum dynamic integrative trust. We validate the feasibility and capability of this approach by implementing simulation, analyzing compared results and checking the model.

  18. An Agent-Based Model of New Venture Creation: Conceptual Design for Simulating Entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provance, Mike; Collins, Andrew; Carayannis, Elias

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing debate over the means by which regions can foster the growth of entrepreneurial activity in order to stimulate recovery and growth of their economies. On one side, agglomeration theory suggests the regions grow because of strong clusters that foster knowledge spillover locally; on the other side, the entrepreneurial action camp argues that innovative business models are generated by entrepreneurs with unique market perspectives who draw on knowledge from more distant domains. We will show you the design for a novel agent-based model of new venture creation that will demonstrate the relationship between agglomeration and action. The primary focus of this model is information exchange as the medium for these agent interactions. Our modeling and simulation study proposes to reveal interesting relationships in these perspectives, offer a foundation on which these disparate theories from economics and sociology can find common ground, and expand the use of agent-based modeling into entrepreneurship research.

  19. A critical survey of agent-based wholesale electricity market models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidlich, Anke; Veit, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    The complexity of electricity markets calls for rich and flexible modeling techniques that help to understand market dynamics and to derive advice for the design of appropriate regulatory frameworks. Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) is a fairly young research paradigm that offers methods for realistic electricity market modeling. A growing number of researchers have developed agent-based models for simulating electricity markets. The diversity of approaches makes it difficult to overview the field of ACE electricity research; this literature survey should guide the way through and describe the state-of-the-art of this research area. In a conclusive summary, shortcomings of existing approaches and open issues that should be addressed by ACE electricity researchers are critically discussed. (author)

  20. Simulating GenCo bidding strategies in electricity markets with an agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Thimmapuram, Prakash R.; Yamakado, Malo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we use an agent-based simulation model, EMCAS, to analyze market power in electricity markets. We focus on the effect of congestion management on the ability of generating companies (GenCos) to raise prices beyond competitive levels. An 11-node test power system is used to compare a market design based on locational marginal pricing with a market design that uses system marginal pricing and congestion management by counter trading. Bidding strategies based on both physical and economic withholding are compared to a base case with production cost bidding. The results show that unilateral market power is exercised under both pricing mechanisms. However, the largest changes in consumer costs and GenCo profits due to strategic bidding occur under the locational marginal pricing scheme. The analysis also illustrates that agent-based modeling can contribute important insights into the complex interactions between the participants in transmission-constrained electricity markets. (Author)

  1. Integrated Agent-Based and Production Cost Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Studies: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallo, Giulia

    2015-10-07

    The agent-based framework for renewable energy studies (ARES) is an integrated approach that adds an agent-based model of industry actors to PLEXOS and combines the strengths of the two to overcome their individual shortcomings. It can examine existing and novel wholesale electricity markets under high penetrations of renewables. ARES is demonstrated by studying how increasing levels of wind will impact the operations and the exercise of market power of generation companies that exploit an economic withholding strategy. The analysis is carried out on a test system that represents the Electric Reliability Council of Texas energy-only market in the year 2020. The results more realistically reproduce the operations of an energy market under different and increasing penetrations of wind, and ARES can be extended to address pressing issues in current and future wholesale electricity markets.

  2. Mobile Agent-Based Software Systems Modeling Approaches: A Comparative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aissam Belghiat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mobile agent-based applications are special type of software systems which take the advantages of mobile agents in order to provide a new beneficial paradigm to solve multiple complex problems in several fields and areas such as network management, e-commerce, e-learning, etc. Likewise, we notice lack of real applications based on this paradigm and lack of serious evaluations of their modeling approaches. Hence, this paper provides a comparative study of modeling approaches of mobile agent-based software systems. The objective is to give the reader an overview and a thorough understanding of the work that has been done and where the gaps in the research are.

  3. Preclinical animal acute toxicity studies of new developed MRI contrast agent based on gadolinium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, I. F.; Zhuk, V. V.

    2015-04-01

    Acute toxicity test of new developed MRI contrast agent based on disodium salt of gadopentetic acid complex were carried out on Mus musculus and Sprague Dawley rats according to guidelines of preclinical studies [1]. Groups of six animals each were selected for experiment. Death and clinical symptoms of animals were recorded during 14 days. As a result the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for female mice is 2.8 mM/kg of body weight, male mice - 1.4 mM/kg, female rats - 2.8 mM/kg, male rats - 5.6 mM/kg of body weight. No Observed Adverse Effect Dose (NOAEL) for female mice is 1.4 mM/kg, male mice - 0.7 mM/kg, male and female rats - 0.7 mM/kg. According to experimental data new developed MRI contrast agent based on Gd-DTPA complex is low-toxic.

  4. Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

    This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land

  5. Investigating immune system aging: system dynamics and agent-based modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Figueredo, Grazziela; Aickelin, Uwe

    2010-01-01

    System dynamics and agent based simulation models can\\ud both be used to model and understand interactions of entities within a population. Our modeling work presented here is concerned with understanding the suitability of the different types of simulation for the immune system aging problems and comparing their results. We are trying to answer questions such as: How fit is the immune system given a certain age? Would an immune boost be of therapeutic value, e.g. to improve the effectiveness...

  6. MULTI AGENT-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL LANDSCAPE (MABEL) - AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SIMULATION MODEL: SOME EARLY ASSESSMENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.

    2002-01-01

    The Multi Agent-Based Environmental Landscape model (MABEL) introduces a Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI) systemic methodology, to simulate land use and transformation changes over time and space. Computational agents represent abstract relations among geographic, environmental, human and socio-economic variables, with respect to land transformation pattern changes. A multi-agent environment is developed providing task-nonspecific problem-solving abilities, flexibility on achieving g...

  7. Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.

  8. VigilAgent for the development of agent-based multi-robot surveillance systems

    OpenAIRE

    Gascueña Noheda, José Manuel; Navarro Martínez, Elena María; Fernández Caballero, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Usually, surveillance applications are developed following an ad-hoc approach instead of using a methodology to guide stakeholders in achieving quality standards expected from commercial software. To solve this gap, our conjecture is that surveillance applications can be fully developed from their initial design stages by means of agent-based methodologies. Specifically, this paper describes the experience and the results of using a multi-agent systems approach according to the process provid...

  9. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Zining Yang

    2016-01-01

    In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at...

  10. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  11. Using Agent Based Distillation to Explore Issues Related to Asymmetric Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    official definition of asymmetric warfare , considering that its use was redundant to irregular warfare [30]. 2 Such as the Lanchester Equations...RTP-MP-MSG-069 23 - 1 Using Agent Based Distillation to Explore Issues Related to Asymmetric Warfare Martin Adelantado, Jean-Michel Mathé...shows that both conventional and asymmetric warfare are characterised by nonlinear behaviours and that engagement is a Complex Adaptive System (CAS

  12. Pricing and Timing Strategies for New Product Using Agent-Based Simulation of Behavioural Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    Keeheon Lee; Hoyeop Lee; Chang Ouk Kim

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we are interested in the problem of determining the pricing and timing strategies of a new product by developing an agent-based product diffusion simulation. In the proposed simulation model, agents imitate behavioural consumers, who are reference dependent and risk averse in the evaluation of new products and whose interactions create word-of-mouth regarding new products. Pricing and timing strategies involve the timing of a new product release, the timing of providing a disco...

  13. Money creation and financial instability: An agent-based credit network approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lengnick, Matthias; Krug, Sebastian; Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

    2013-01-01

    The authors develop a simple agent-based and stock flow consistent model of a monetary economy. Their model is well suited to explain money creation along the lines of mainstream theory. Additionally it uncovers a potential instability that follows from a maturity mismatch of assets and liabilities. The authors analyze the impact of interbank lending on the stability of the financial sector and find that an interbank market stabilizes the economy during normal times but amplifies systemic ins...

  14. An Agent Based Approach To Finding Expertise In The Engineering Design Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Crowder, Richard; Hughes, Gareth; Hall, Wendy

    2003-01-01

    During the engineering design process people need to locate colleagues with knowledge to resolve a problem. As identified by discussions with practicing designers the use of computer based systems that assist users with finding such expertise will become increasingly important. In this paper we discuss the development of an agent based Expertise Finder suitable for use within an engineering design environment. A key feature of our approach is that the Expertise Finder returns both recommended...

  15. A framework to specify agent-based models in geographic sciences

    OpenAIRE

    Grueau, Cédric; Araújo, João

    2015-01-01

    Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and simulation have gained popularity in the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) domain. Despite the increasing number of models built by experts and users, it remains challenging for users to specify their models in a manner in which one can understand it. This constraint represents an inhibition to the development and acceptance of the ABM approach. In this paper, we raise the questions that need to be answered in order to cope with ABM specification issues. We r...

  16. Skin Stem Cell Hypotheses and Long Term Clone Survival - Explored Using Agent-based Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Li, X.; Upadhyay, A.K.; Bullock, A.J.; Dicolandrea, T.; Xu, J.; Binder, R.L.; Robinson, M.K.; Finlay, D.R.; Mills, K.J.; Bascom, C.C.; Kelling, C.K.; Isfort, R.J.; Haycock, J.W.; MacNeil, S.; Smallwood, R.H.

    2013-01-01

    Epithelial renewal in skin is achieved by the constant turnover and differentiation of keratinocytes. Three popular hypotheses have been proposed to explain basal keratinocyte regeneration and epidermal homeostasis: 1) asymmetric division (stem-transit amplifying cell); 2) populational asymmetry (progenitor cell with stochastic fate); and 3) populational asymmetry with stem cells. In this study, we investigated lineage dynamics using these hypotheses with a 3D agent-based model of the epiderm...

  17. CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Rylatt, R. M.; Gammon, Rupert; Boait, Peter John; Varga, L.; Allen, P.; Savill, M.; Snape, J. Richard; Lemon, Mark; Ardestani, B. M.; Pakka, V. H.; Fletcher, G.; Smith, S.; Fan, D.; Strathern, M.

    2013-01-01

    Collaborative project with Cranfield University The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent socia...

  18. Developing an agent-based model on how different individuals solve complex problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ipek Bozkurt

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Research that focuses on the emotional, mental, behavioral and cognitive capabilities of individuals has been abundant within disciplines such as psychology, sociology, and anthropology, among others. However, when facing complex problems, a new perspective to understand individuals is necessary. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an agent-based model and simulation to gain understanding on the decision-making and problem-solving abilities of individuals. Design/Methodology/approach: The micro-level analysis modeling and simulation paradigm Agent-Based Modeling Through the use of Agent-Based Modeling, insight is gained on how different individuals with different profiles deal with complex problems. Using previous literature from different bodies of knowledge, established theories and certain assumptions as input parameters, a model is built and executed through a computer simulation. Findings: The results indicate that individuals with certain profiles have better capabilities to deal with complex problems. Moderate profiles could solve the entire complex problem, whereas profiles within extreme conditions could not. This indicates that having a strong predisposition is not the ideal way when approaching complex problems, and there should always be a component from the other perspective. The probability that an individual may use these capabilities provided by the opposite predisposition provides to be a useful option. Originality/value: The originality of the present research stems from how individuals are profiled, and the model and simulation that is built to understand how they solve complex problems. The development of the agent-based model adds value to the existing body of knowledge within both social sciences, and modeling and simulation.

  19. A multi-agent based intelligent configuration method for aircraft fleet maintenance personnel

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Qiang; Li, Songjie; Sun, Bo

    2014-01-01

    A multi-agent based fleet maintenance personnel configuration method is proposed to solve the mission oriented aircraft fleet maintenance personnel configuration problem. The maintenance process of an aircraft fleet is analyzed first. In the process each aircraft contains multiple parts, and different parts are repaired by personnel with different majors and levels. The factors and their relationship involved in the process of maintenance are analyzed and discussed. Then the whole maintenance...

  20. An Agent-Based Modeling Template for a Cohort of Veterans with Diabetic Retinopathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore Eugene Day

    Full Text Available Agent-based models are valuable for examining systems where large numbers of discrete individuals interact with each other, or with some environment. Diabetic Veterans seeking eye care at a Veterans Administration hospital represent one such cohort.The objective of this study was to develop an agent-based template to be used as a model for a patient with diabetic retinopathy (DR. This template may be replicated arbitrarily many times in order to generate a large cohort which is representative of a real-world population, upon which in-silico experimentation may be conducted.Agent-based template development was performed in java-based computer simulation suite AnyLogic Professional 6.6. The model was informed by medical data abstracted from 535 patient records representing a retrospective cohort of current patients of the VA St. Louis Healthcare System Eye clinic. Logistic regression was performed to determine the predictors associated with advancing stages of DR. Predicted probabilities obtained from logistic regression were used to generate the stage of DR in the simulated cohort.The simulated cohort of DR patients exhibited no significant deviation from the test population of real-world patients in proportion of stage of DR, duration of diabetes mellitus (DM, or the other abstracted predictors. Simulated patients after 10 years were significantly more likely to exhibit proliferative DR (P<0.001.Agent-based modeling is an emerging platform, capable of simulating large cohorts of individuals based on manageable data abstraction efforts. The modeling method described may be useful in simulating many different conditions where course of disease is described in categorical stages.

  1. Money-Scape: A Generic Agent-Based Model of Corruption

    OpenAIRE

    Hokky Situngkir

    2004-01-01

    There has been a lot of works on corruption cases. We must think that corruption is a cultural aspect in a social life. We cannot separate the corruption with the cultural system where the corruption raised. Indonesia has been recorded to be one of the countries of the worst economic and political system on corruption case. The paper is introducing the usage of agent based simulation for analyzing the corruption specifically in Indonesia as the biggest corruption level. The model showed is na...

  2. A review of agent-based models for forecasting the deployment of distributed generation in energy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veneman, J.F.; Oey, M.A.; Kortmann, L.J.; Brazier, F.M.; De Vries, L.J.

    2011-01-01

    Agent-based models are seeing increasing use in the study of distributed generation (DG) deployment. Researchers and decision makers involved in the implementation of DG have been lacking a concise overview of why they should consider using agent-based modeling (ABM) for forecasting purposes. Since

  3. Agent Based Simulation of Group Emotions Evolution and Strategy Intervention in Extreme Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agent based simulation method has become a prominent approach in computational modeling and analysis of public emergency management in social science research. The group emotions evolution, information diffusion, and collective behavior selection make extreme incidents studies a complex system problem, which requires new methods for incidents management and strategy evaluation. This paper studies the group emotion evolution and intervention strategy effectiveness using agent based simulation method. By employing a computational experimentation methodology, we construct the group emotion evolution as a complex system and test the effects of three strategies. In addition, the events-chain model is proposed to model the accumulation influence of the temporal successive events. Each strategy is examined through three simulation experiments, including two make-up scenarios and a real case study. We show how various strategies could impact the group emotion evolution in terms of the complex emergence and emotion accumulation influence in extreme events. This paper also provides an effective method of how to use agent-based simulation for the study of complex collective behavior evolution problem in extreme incidents, emergency, and security study domains.

  4. Automated mode shape estimation in agent-based wireless sensor networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Andrew T.; Lynch, Jerome P.

    2010-04-01

    Recent advances in wireless sensing technology have made it possible to deploy dense networks of sensing transducers within large structural systems. Because these networks leverage the embedded computing power and agent-based abilities integral to many wireless sensing devices, it is possible to analyze sensor data autonomously and in-network. In this study, market-based techniques are used to autonomously estimate mode shapes within a network of agent-based wireless sensors. Specifically, recent work in both decentralized Frequency Domain Decomposition and market-based resource allocation is leveraged to create a mode shape estimation algorithm derived from free-market principles. This algorithm allows an agent-based wireless sensor network to autonomously shift emphasis between improving mode shape accuracy and limiting the consumption of certain scarce network resources: processing time, storage capacity, and power consumption. The developed algorithm is validated by successfully estimating mode shapes using a network of wireless sensor prototypes deployed on the mezzanine balcony of Hill Auditorium, located on the University of Michigan campus.

  5. Simulating Transport and Land Use Interdependencies for Strategic Urban Planning—An Agent Based Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Huynh

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Agent based modelling has been widely accepted as a promising tool for urban planning purposes thanks to its capability to provide sophisticated insights into the social behaviours and the interdependencies that characterise urban systems. In this paper, we report on an agent based model, called TransMob, which explicitly simulates the mutual dynamics between demographic evolution, transport demands, housing needs and the eventual change in the average satisfaction of the residents of an urban area. The ability to reproduce such dynamics is a unique feature that has not been found in many of the like agent based models in the literature. TransMob, is constituted by six major modules: synthetic population, perceived liveability, travel diary assignment, traffic micro-simulator, residential location choice, and travel mode choice. TransMob is used to simulate the dynamics of a metropolitan area in South East of Sydney, Australia, in 2006 and 2011, with demographic evolution. The results are favourably compared against survey data for the area in 2011, therefore validating the capability of TransMob to reproduce the observed complexity of an urban area. We also report on the application of TransMob to simulate various hypothetical scenarios of urban planning policies. We conclude with discussions on current limitations of TransMob, which serve as suggestions for future developments.

  6. Agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhenhua

    The active hybridization technique provides an effective approach to combining the best properties of a heterogeneous set of power sources to achieve higher energy density, power density and fuel efficiency. Active hybrid power sources can be used to power hybrid electric vehicles with selected combinations of internal combustion engines, fuel cells, batteries, and/or supercapacitors. They can be deployed in all-electric ships to build a distributed electric power system. They can also be used in a bulk power system to construct an autonomous distributed energy system. An important aspect in designing an active hybrid power source is to find a suitable control strategy that can manage the active power sharing and take advantage of the inherent scalability and robustness benefits of the hybrid system. This paper presents an agent-based power sharing scheme for active hybrid power sources. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed agent-based power sharing scheme, simulation studies are performed for a hybrid power source that can be used in a solar car as the main propulsion power module. Simulation results clearly indicate that the agent-based control framework is effective to coordinate the various energy sources and manage the power/voltage profiles.

  7. An agent-based model of signal transduction in bacterial chemotaxis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jameson Miller

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We report the application of agent-based modeling to examine the signal transduction network and receptor arrays for chemotaxis in Escherichia coli, which are responsible for regulating swimming behavior in response to environmental stimuli. Agent-based modeling is a stochastic and bottom-up approach, where individual components of the modeled system are explicitly represented, and bulk properties emerge from their movement and interactions. We present the Chemoscape model: a collection of agents representing both fixed membrane-embedded and mobile cytoplasmic proteins, each governed by a set of rules representing knowledge or hypotheses about their function. When the agents were placed in a simulated cellular space and then allowed to move and interact stochastically, the model exhibited many properties similar to the biological system including adaptation, high signal gain, and wide dynamic range. We found the agent based modeling approach to be both powerful and intuitive for testing hypotheses about biological properties such as self-assembly, the non-linear dynamics that occur through cooperative protein interactions, and non-uniform distributions of proteins in the cell. We applied the model to explore the role of receptor type, geometry and cooperativity in the signal gain and dynamic range of the chemotactic response to environmental stimuli. The model provided substantial qualitative evidence that the dynamic range of chemotactic response can be traced to both the heterogeneity of receptor types present, and the modulation of their cooperativity by their methylation state.

  8. An agent-based model of signal transduction in bacterial chemotaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jameson; Parker, Miles; Bourret, Robert B; Giddings, Morgan C

    2010-05-13

    We report the application of agent-based modeling to examine the signal transduction network and receptor arrays for chemotaxis in Escherichia coli, which are responsible for regulating swimming behavior in response to environmental stimuli. Agent-based modeling is a stochastic and bottom-up approach, where individual components of the modeled system are explicitly represented, and bulk properties emerge from their movement and interactions. We present the Chemoscape model: a collection of agents representing both fixed membrane-embedded and mobile cytoplasmic proteins, each governed by a set of rules representing knowledge or hypotheses about their function. When the agents were placed in a simulated cellular space and then allowed to move and interact stochastically, the model exhibited many properties similar to the biological system including adaptation, high signal gain, and wide dynamic range. We found the agent based modeling approach to be both powerful and intuitive for testing hypotheses about biological properties such as self-assembly, the non-linear dynamics that occur through cooperative protein interactions, and non-uniform distributions of proteins in the cell. We applied the model to explore the role of receptor type, geometry and cooperativity in the signal gain and dynamic range of the chemotactic response to environmental stimuli. The model provided substantial qualitative evidence that the dynamic range of chemotactic response can be traced to both the heterogeneity of receptor types present, and the modulation of their cooperativity by their methylation state.

  9. Soil mixing of stratified contaminated sands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Tabba, A; Ayotamuno, M J; Martin, R J

    2000-02-01

    Validation of soil mixing for the treatment of contaminated ground is needed in a wide range of site conditions to widen the application of the technology and to understand the mechanisms involved. Since very limited work has been carried out in heterogeneous ground conditions, this paper investigates the effectiveness of soil mixing in stratified sands using laboratory-scale augers. This enabled a low cost investigation of factors such as grout type and form, auger design, installation procedure, mixing mode, curing period, thickness of soil layers and natural moisture content on the unconfined compressive strength, leachability and leachate pH of the soil-grout mixes. The results showed that the auger design plays a very important part in the mixing process in heterogeneous sands. The variability of the properties measured in the stratified soils and the measurable variations caused by the various factors considered, highlighted the importance of duplicating appropriate in situ conditions, the usefulness of laboratory-scale modelling of in situ conditions and the importance of modelling soil and contaminant heterogeneities at the treatability study stage.

  10. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  11. Stratified Simulations of Collisionless Accretion Disks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirabayashi, Kota; Hoshino, Masahiro, E-mail: hirabayashi-k@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-0033 (Japan)

    2017-06-10

    This paper presents a series of stratified-shearing-box simulations of collisionless accretion disks in the recently developed framework of kinetic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), which can handle finite non-gyrotropy of a pressure tensor. Although a fully kinetic simulation predicted a more efficient angular-momentum transport in collisionless disks than in the standard MHD regime, the enhanced transport has not been observed in past kinetic-MHD approaches to gyrotropic pressure anisotropy. For the purpose of investigating this missing link between the fully kinetic and MHD treatments, this paper explores the role of non-gyrotropic pressure and makes the first attempt to incorporate certain collisionless effects into disk-scale, stratified disk simulations. When the timescale of gyrotropization was longer than, or comparable to, the disk-rotation frequency of the orbit, we found that the finite non-gyrotropy selectively remaining in the vicinity of current sheets contributes to suppressing magnetic reconnection in the shearing-box system. This leads to increases both in the saturated amplitude of the MHD turbulence driven by magnetorotational instabilities and in the resultant efficiency of angular-momentum transport. Our results seem to favor the fast advection of magnetic fields toward the rotation axis of a central object, which is required to launch an ultra-relativistic jet from a black hole accretion system in, for example, a magnetically arrested disk state.

  12. Network Society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Lars; Tække, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    the five strands of theory on the network society. Each theoretical position has its specific implications for acting toward strategic goals. In its entirety, the five perspectives give a thorough understanding of the conditions for successful strategic communication in the 21st century....

  13. Network Society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Lars; Tække, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    the five strands of theory on the network society. Each theoretical position has its specific implications for acting toward strategic goals. In its entirety, the five perspectives give a thorough understanding of the conditions for successful strategic communication in the 21st century....

  14. Agent-based modeling and simulation of clean heating system adoption in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sopha, Bertha Maya

    2011-03-15

    A sound climate policy encouraging clean energy investment is important to mitigate global warming. Previous research has demonstrated that consumer choice indeed plays an important role in adoption of sustainable technologies. This thesis strives to gain a better understanding of consumers' decision-making on heating systems and to explore the potential application of agent-based modeling (ABM) in exploring mechanism underlying adoption in which heating system adoption by Norwegian households is taken up as a case study. An interdisciplinary approach, applying various established theories including those of psychology, is applied to create a model for consumer behavior and implement this behavior in an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate heating technology diffusion. A mail-survey, carried out in autumn 2008, is a means to collect information for parameterizing the agent-based model, for gaining empirical facts, and for validating the developed model at micro-level. Survey sample consisted of 1500 Norwegian households drawn from population register and 1500 wood pellet users in Norway. The response rates were 10.3% and 34.6% for population sample and wood pellet sample respectively. This study is divided into two parts; empirical analysis and agent-based simulation. The empirical analysis aims at fully understanding the important aspects of adoption decision and their implications, in order to assist simulation. The analysis particularly contributes to the identification of differences/similarities between adopters and non adopters of wood pellet heating with respects to some key points of adoption derived from different theories, psychological factors underlying the adoption-decision of wood pellet heating, and the rationales underlying Norwegian households' decisions regarding their future heating system. The simulation study aims at exploring the mechanism of heterogeneous household decision-making giving rise to the diffusion of heating systems, and

  15. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Dressler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  16. Monte Carlo stratified source-sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomquist, R.N.; Gelbard, E.M.

    1997-01-01

    In 1995, at a conference on criticality safety, a special session was devoted to the Monte Carlo open-quotes eigenvalue of the worldclose quotes problem. Argonne presented a paper, at that session, in which the anomalies originally observed in that problem were reproduced in a much simplified model-problem configuration, and removed by a version of stratified source-sampling. The original test-problem was treated by a special code designed specifically for that purpose. Recently ANL started work on a method for dealing with more realistic eigenvalue of the world configurations, and has been incorporating this method into VIM. The original method has been modified to take into account real-world statistical noise sources not included in the model problem. This paper constitutes a status report on work still in progress

  17. Ecosystem metabolism in a stratified lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Peter Anton; Christensen, Jesper Philip Aagaard; Batt, Ryan D.

    2012-01-01

    , differences were not significant. During stratification, daily variability in epilimnetic DO was dominated by metabolism (46%) and air-water gas exchange (44%). Fluxes related to mixed-layer deepening dominated in meta- and hypolimnic waters (49% and 64%), while eddy diffusion (1% and 14%) was less important....... Although air-water gas exchange rates differed among the three formulations of gas-transfer velocity, this had no significant effect on metabolic rates....... that integrates rates across the entire depth profile and includes DO exchange between depth layers driven by mixed-layer deepening and eddy diffusivity. During full mixing, NEP was close to zero throughout the water column, and GPP and R were reduced 2-10 times compared to stratified periods. When present...

  18. Stratified growth in Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner, E.; Roe, F.; Bugnicourt, A.

    2004-01-01

    In this study, stratified patterns of protein synthesis and growth were demonstrated in Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilms. Spatial patterns of protein synthetic activity inside biofilms were characterized by the use of two green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporter gene constructs. One construct...... synthesis was restricted to a narrow band in the part of the biofilm adjacent to the source of oxygen. The zone of active GFP expression was approximately 60 Am wide in colony biofilms and 30 Am wide in flow cell biofilms. The region of the biofilm in which cells were capable of elongation was mapped...... by treating colony biofilms with carbenicillin, which blocks cell division, and then measuring individual cell lengths by transmission electron microscopy. Cell elongation was localized at the air interface of the biofilm. The heterogeneous anabolic patterns measured inside these biofilms were likely a result...

  19. Thermal instability in a stratified plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermanns, D.F.M.; Priest, E.R.

    1989-01-01

    The thermal instability mechansism has been studied in connection to observed coronal features, like, e.g. prominences or cool cores in loops. Although these features show a lot of structure, most studies concern the thermal instability in an uniform medium. In this paper, we investigate the thermal instability and the interaction between thermal modes and the slow magneto-acoustic subspectrum for a stratified plasma slab. We fomulate the relevant system of equations and give some straightforward properties of the linear spectrum of a non-uniform plasma slab, i.e. the existence of continuous parts in the spectrum. We present a numerical scheme with which we can investigate the linear spectrum for equilibrium states with stratification. The slow and thermal subspectra of a crude coronal model are given as a preliminary result. (author). 6 refs.; 1 fig

  20. Information content of household-stratified epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Kinyanjui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

  1. Information content of household-stratified epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinyanjui, T M; Pellis, L; House, T

    2016-09-01

    Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Stratified sampling design based on data mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeonkook J; Oh, Yoonhwan; Park, Sunghoon; Cho, Sungzoon; Park, Hayoung

    2013-09-01

    To explore classification rules based on data mining methodologies which are to be used in defining strata in stratified sampling of healthcare providers with improved sampling efficiency. We performed k-means clustering to group providers with similar characteristics, then, constructed decision trees on cluster labels to generate stratification rules. We assessed the variance explained by the stratification proposed in this study and by conventional stratification to evaluate the performance of the sampling design. We constructed a study database from health insurance claims data and providers' profile data made available to this study by the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service of South Korea, and population data from Statistics Korea. From our database, we used the data for single specialty clinics or hospitals in two specialties, general surgery and ophthalmology, for the year 2011 in this study. Data mining resulted in five strata in general surgery with two stratification variables, the number of inpatients per specialist and population density of provider location, and five strata in ophthalmology with two stratification variables, the number of inpatients per specialist and number of beds. The percentages of variance in annual changes in the productivity of specialists explained by the stratification in general surgery and ophthalmology were 22% and 8%, respectively, whereas conventional stratification by the type of provider location and number of beds explained 2% and 0.2% of variance, respectively. This study demonstrated that data mining methods can be used in designing efficient stratified sampling with variables readily available to the insurer and government; it offers an alternative to the existing stratification method that is widely used in healthcare provider surveys in South Korea.

  3. Stratified charge rotary engine combustion studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shock, H.; Hamady, F.; Somerton, C.; Stuecken, T.; Chouinard, E.; Rachal, T.; Kosterman, J.; Lambeth, M.; Olbrich, C.

    1989-07-01

    Analytical and experimental studies of the combustion process in a stratified charge rotary engine (SCRE) continue to be the subject of active research in recent years. Specifically to meet the demand for more sophisticated products, a detailed understanding of the engine system of interest is warranted. With this in mind the objective of this work is to develop an understanding of the controlling factors that affect the SCRE combustion process so that an efficient power dense rotary engine can be designed. The influence of the induction-exhaust systems and the rotor geometry are believed to have a significant effect on combustion chamber flow characteristics. In this report, emphasis is centered on Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) measurements and on qualitative flow visualizations in the combustion chamber of the motored rotary engine assembly. This will provide a basic understanding of the flow process in the RCE and serve as a data base for verification of numerical simulations. Understanding fuel injection provisions is also important to the successful operation of the stratified charge rotary engine. Toward this end, flow visualizations depicting the development of high speed, high pressure fuel jets are described. Friction is an important consideration in an engine from the standpoint of lost work, durability and reliability. MSU Engine Research Laboratory efforts in accessing the frictional losses associated with the rotary engine are described. This includes work which describes losses in bearing, seal and auxillary components. Finally, a computer controlled mapping system under development is described. This system can be used to map shapes such as combustion chamber, intake manifolds or turbine blades accurately.

  4. An Adaptive Agent-Based Model of Homing Pigeons: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Oloo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventionally, agent-based modelling approaches start from a conceptual model capturing the theoretical understanding of the systems of interest. Simulation outcomes are then used “at the end” to validate the conceptual understanding. In today’s data rich era, there are suggestions that models should be data-driven. Data-driven workflows are common in mathematical models. However, their application to agent-based models is still in its infancy. Integration of real-time sensor data into modelling workflows opens up the possibility of comparing simulations against real data during the model run. Calibration and validation procedures thus become automated processes that are iteratively executed during the simulation. We hypothesize that incorporation of real-time sensor data into agent-based models improves the predictive ability of such models. In particular, that such integration results in increasingly well calibrated model parameters and rule sets. In this contribution, we explore this question by implementing a flocking model that evolves in real-time. Specifically, we use genetic algorithms approach to simulate representative parameters to describe flight routes of homing pigeons. The navigation parameters of pigeons are simulated and dynamically evaluated against emulated GPS sensor data streams and optimised based on the fitness of candidate parameters. As a result, the model was able to accurately simulate the relative-turn angles and step-distance of homing pigeons. Further, the optimised parameters could replicate loops, which are common patterns in flight tracks of homing pigeons. Finally, the use of genetic algorithms in this study allowed for a simultaneous data-driven optimization and sensitivity analysis.

  5. Dosage and dose schedule screening of drug combinations in agent-based models reveals hidden synergies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Corina Barros de Andrade e Sousa1

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The fungus Candida albicans is the most common causative agent of human fungal infections and better drugs or drug combination strategies are urgently needed. Here, we present an agent-based model of the interplay of C. albicans with the host immune system and with the microflora of the host. We took into account the morphological change of C. albicans from the yeast to hyphae form and its dynamics during infection. The model allowed us to follow the dynamics of fungal growth and morphology, of the immune cells and of microflora in different perturbing situations. We specifically focused on the consequences of microflora reduction following antibiotic treatment. Using the agent-based model, different drug types have been tested for their effectiveness, namely drugs that inhibit cell division and drugs that constrain the yeast-to-hyphae transition. Applied individually, the division drug turned out to successfully decrease hyphae while the transition drug leads to a burst in hyphae after the end of the treatment. To evaluate the effect of different drug combinations, doses, and schedules, we introduced a measure for the return to a healthy state, the infection score. Using this measure, we found that the addition of a transition drug to a division drug treatment can improve the treatment reliability while minimizing treatment duration and drug dosage. In this work we present a theoretical study. Although our model has not been calibrated to quantitative experimental data, the technique of computationally identifying synergistic treatment combinations in an agent based model exemplifies the importance of computational techniques in translational research.

  6. A hybrid agent-based computational economics and optimization approach for supplier selection problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Pourabdollahi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Supplier evaluation and selection problem is among the most important of logistics decisions that have been addressed extensively in supply chain management. The same logistics decision is also important in freight transportation since it identifies trade relationships between business establishments and determines commodity flows between production and consumption points. The commodity flows are then used as input to freight transportation models to determine cargo movements and their characteristics including mode choice and shipment size. Various approaches have been proposed to explore this latter problem in previous studies. Traditionally, potential suppliers are evaluated and selected using only price/cost as the influential criteria and the state-of-practice methods. This paper introduces a hybrid agent-based computational economics and optimization approach for supplier selection. The proposed model combines an agent-based multi-criteria supplier evaluation approach with a multi-objective optimization model to capture both behavioral and economical aspects of the supplier selection process. The model uses a system of ordered response models to determine importance weights of the different criteria in supplier evaluation from a buyers’ point of view. The estimated weights are then used to calculate a utility for each potential supplier in the market and rank them. The calculated utilities are then entered into a mathematical programming model in which best suppliers are selected by maximizing the total accrued utility for all buyers and minimizing total shipping costs while balancing the capacity of potential suppliers to ensure market clearing mechanisms. The proposed model, herein, was implemented under an operational agent-based supply chain and freight transportation framework for the Chicago Metropolitan Area.

  7. Cryptozoology Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Barbara T.

    Reports of Loch Ness monsters, Bigfoot, and the Yeti spring u p from time to time, sparking scientific controversy about the veracity of these observations. Now an organization has been established to help cull, analyze, and disseminate information on the alleged creatures. The International Society of Cryptozoology, formed at a January meeting at the U.S. National Museum of Natural History of the Smithsonian Institution, will serve as the focal point for the investigation, analysis, publication, and discussion of animals of unexpected form or size or of unexpected occurrences in time or space.

  8. Controlling for false negatives in agent-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Secchi, Davide; Seri, Raffaello

    2017-01-01

    This article is concerned with the study of statistical power in agent-based modeling (ABM). After an overview of classic statistics theory on how to interpret Type-II error (whose occurrence is also referred to as a false negative) and power, the manuscript presents a study on ABM simulation art...... of simulation runs to reach an appropriate level of power. The study concludes with the importance for organizational behavior scholars to perform their models in an attempt to reach a power of 0.95 or higher at the 0.01 significance level....

  9. The Simulation of Financial Markets by Agent-Based Mix-Game Models

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  10. The Simulation of Financial Markets by an Agent-Based Mix-Game Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chengling Gou

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the simulation of financial markets using an agent-based mix-game model which is a variant of the minority game (MG). It specifies the spectra of parameters of mix-game models that fit financial markets by investigating the dynamic behaviors of mix-game models under a wide range of parameters. The main findings are (a) in order to approach efficiency, agents in a real financial market must be heterogeneous, boundedly rational and subject to asymmetric information; (b) an ac...

  11. Agent-Based Framework for Personalized Service Provisioning in Converged IP Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, Vedran; Matijasevic, Maja; Lovrek, Ignac; Skorin-Kapov, Lea; Desic, Sasa

    In a global multi-service and multi-provider market, the Internet Service Providers will increasingly need to differentiate in the service quality they offer and base their operation on new, consumer-centric business models. In this paper, we propose an agent-based framework for the Business-to-Consumer (B2C) electronic market, comprising the Consumer Agents, Broker Agents and Content Agents, which enable Internet consumers to select a content provider in an automated manner. We also discuss how to dynamically allocate network resources to provide end-to-end Quality of Service (QoS) for a given consumer and content provider.

  12. An Agent-Based Co-Evolutionary Multi-Objective Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Dreżewski

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Algorithms based on the process of natural evolution are widely used to solve multi-objective optimization problems. In this paper we propose the agent-based co-evolutionary algorithm for multi-objective portfolio optimization. The proposed technique is compared experimentally to the genetic algorithm, co-evolutionary algorithm and a more classical approach—the trend-following algorithm. During the experiments historical data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange is used in order to assess the performance of the compared algorithms. Finally, we draw some conclusions from these experiments, showing the strong and weak points of all the techniques.

  13. Word of Mouth : An Agent-based Approach to Predictability of Stock Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Misawa, Tadanobu; Watanabe, Kyoko

    This paper addresses how communication processes among investors affect stock prices formation, especially emerging predictability of stock prices, in financial markets. An agent based model, called the word of mouth model, is introduced for analyzing the problem. This model provides a simple, but sufficiently versatile, description of informational diffusion process and is successful in making lucidly explanation for the predictability of small sized stocks, which is a stylized fact in financial markets but difficult to resolve by traditional models. Our model also provides a rigorous examination of the under reaction hypothesis to informational shocks.

  14. Agent based Particle Swarm Optimization for Load Frequency Control of Distribution Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cha, Seung-Tae; Saleem, Arshad; Wu, Qiuwei

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based on multi-agent controller. Real-time digital simulator (RTDS) is used for modelling the power system, while a PSO based multi-agent LFC algorithm is developed in JAVA for communicating with resource agents and determines the scenario...... to stabilize the frequency and voltage after the system enters into the islanding operation mode. The proposed algorithm is based on the formulation of an optimization problem using agent based PSO. The modified IEEE 9-bus system is employed to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller via RTDS...

  15. Pattern-oriented Agent-based Monte Carlo simulation of Cellular Redox Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Jiaowei; Holcombe, Mike; Boonen, Harrie C.M.

    /CYSS) and mitochondrial redox couples. Evidence suggests that both intracellular and extracellular redox can affect overall cell redox state. How redox is communicated between extracellular and intracellular environments is still a matter of debate. Some researchers conclude based on experimental data...... cells. Biochimica Et Biophysica Acta-General Subjects, 2008. 1780(11): p. 1271-1290. 5. Jones, D.P., Redox sensing: orthogonal control in cell cycle and apoptosis signalling. J Intern Med, 2010. 268(5): p. 432-48. 6. Pogson, M., et al., Formal agent-based modelling of intracellular chemical interactions...

  16. Technology assessment in energy landscapes. Agent-based modeling of energy conflicts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheffran, Juergen; Link, P. Michael; Shaaban, Mostafa; Suesser, Diana

    2017-01-01

    The risks and conflicts of the fossil-nuclear age are in contrast to the effects of renewable energies which appear in a largely positive light. However, the transformation towards a low-carbon energy supply creates new energy landscapes with a high demand for suitable land areas - which may also provoke energy conflicts. Technology assessment can contribute to reducing such energy conflicts and increasing public acceptance by using spatial agent-based models that represent dynamic decisions and interactions of stakeholders regarding energy alternatives and land-use options. Northern Germany serves as a case study region where farmers and communities are local actors of the energy transition.

  17. Agent-Based Simulation of Mass Shootings: Determining How to Limit the Scale of a Tragedy

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Hayes; Reginald Hayes

    2014-01-01

    An agent-based simulation was created to examine key parameters in mass shootings. The goal of the simulation was to examine the potential effectiveness of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) assault weapons and high-capacity magazines bill. Based on the analysis, the proposed law would have a negligible effect on the number of people shot during mass shootings. The assault weapons portion of the proposed bill will have no effect on the number of people killed or wounded in a mass shootin...

  18. Agent Based Knowledge Management Solution using Ontology, Semantic Web Services and GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea DIOSTEANU

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of our research is to develop an agent based knowledge management application framework using a specific type of ontology that is able to facilitate semantic web service search and automatic composition. This solution can later on be used to develop complex solutions for location based services, supply chain management, etc. This application for modeling knowledge highlights the importance of agent interaction that leads to efficient enterprise interoperability. Furthermore, it proposes an "agent communication language" ontology that extends the OWL Lite standard approach and makes it more flexible in retrieving proper data for identifying the agents that can best communicate and negotiate.

  19. A Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Indoor Evacuation Supported by Google Glass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Sánchez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Indoor evacuation systems are needed for rescue and safety management. One of the challenges is to provide users with personalized evacuation routes in real time. To this end, this project aims at exploring the possibilities of Google Glass technology for participatory multiagent indoor evacuation simulations. Participatory multiagent simulation combines scenario-guided agents and humans equipped with Google Glass that coexist in a shared virtual space and jointly perform simulations. The paper proposes an architecture for participatory multiagent simulation in order to combine devices (Google Glass and/or smartphones with an agent-based social simulator and indoor tracking services.

  20. An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Espíndola, Aquino L; Bauch, Chris T; Troca Cabella, Brenno C; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2011-01-01

    In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed

  1. Questioning the quantity equation using an agent-based computational model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Charlotte

    2000-01-01

    by Stutzel (1954), argues that the functional relationship may as well be negative. Even focusing the money needed to carry out transactions, there is no immediate answer to the question of the functional relationship between trade turnover and money demand. An agent-based computational model is used......In the literature we find two opposing hypotheses relating the volume of money to the volume of transactions or national income. The classic hypothesis, implicitly entailed in the quantity equation, argues that this relation must be positive, while an opposing hypothesis, most strongly presented...

  2. Multi-agent based modeling for electric vehicle integration in a distribution network operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Junjie; Morais, Hugo; Lind, Morten

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a multi-agent based modeling technology for simulating and operating a hierarchical energy management of a power distribution system with focus on EVs integration. The proposed multi-agent system consists of four types of agents: i) Distribution system...... operator (DSO) technical agent and ii) DSO market agents that both belong to the top layer of the hierarchy and their roles are to manage the distribution network by avoiding grid congestions and using congestion prices to coordinate the energy scheduled; iii) Electric vehicle virtual power plant agents...

  3. Agent-based approach for generation of a money-centered star network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jae-Suk; Kwon, Okyu; Jung, Woo-Sung; Kim, In-mook

    2008-09-01

    The history of trade is a progression from a pure barter system. A medium of exchange emerges autonomously in the market, a position currently occupied by money. We investigate an agent-based computational economics model consisting of interacting agents considering distinguishable properties of commodities which represent salability. We also analyze the properties of the commodity network using a spanning tree. We find that the “storage fee” is more crucial than “demand” in determining which commodity is used as a medium of exchange.

  4. Investigation of the blockchain systems’ scalability features using the agent based modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Šulnius, Aleksas

    2017-01-01

    Investigation of the BlockChain Systems’ Scalability Features using the Agent Based Modelling. BlockChain currently is in the spotlight of all the FinTech industry. This technology is being called revolutionary, ground breaking, disruptive and even the WEB 3.0. On the other hand it is widely agreed that the BlockChain is in its early stages of development. In its current state BlockChain is in similar position that the Internet was in the early nineties. In order for this technology to gain m...

  5. Agent-Based Smart Grid Market Simulation with Connection to Real Infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Gomes, Luis

    2015-01-01

    The consensus behind Smart Grids (SG) as one of the most promising solutions for the massive integration of renewable energy sources in power systems has led to the practical implementation of several prototypes and pilots that aim at testing and validating SG methodologies. The urgent need...... to accommodate such resources of distributed and intermittent nature and the impact that a deficient management of energy sources has on the global population require that alternative solutions are experimented. This paper presents a multi-agent based SG simulation platform that is connected to physical...

  6. Diffusion and Aggregation in an Agent Based Model of Stock Market Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castiglione, Filippo

    We describe a new model to simulate the dynamic interactions between market price and the decisions of two different kind of traders. They possess spatial mobility allowing to group together to form coalitions. Each coalition follows a strategy chosen from a proportional voting ``dominated'' by a leader's decision. The interplay of both kind of agents gives rise to complex price dynamics that is consistent with the main stylized facts of financial time series. The present model incorporates many features of other known models and is meant to be the first step toward the construction of an agent-based model that uses more realistic markets rules, strategies, and information structures.

  7. ModelforAnalyzing Human Communication Network Based onAgent-Based Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuyama, Shinako; Terano, Takao

    This paper discusses dynamic properties of human communications networks, which appears as a result of informationexchanges among people. We propose agent-based simulation (ABS) to examine implicit mechanisms behind the dynamics. The ABS enables us to reveal the characteristics and the differences of the networks regarding the specific communicationgroups. We perform experiments on the ABS with activity data from questionnaires survey and with virtual data which isdifferent from the activity data. We compare the difference between them and show the effectiveness of the ABS through theexperiments.

  8. Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

    2018-03-20

    Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

  9. The effect of surfactant on stratified and stratifying gas-liquid flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiles, Baptiste; Zadrazil, Ivan; Matar, Omar

    2013-11-01

    We consider the dynamics of a stratified/stratifying gas-liquid flow in horizontal tubes. This flow regime is characterised by the thin liquid films that drain under gravity along the pipe interior, forming a pool at the bottom of the tube, and the formation of large-amplitude waves at the gas-liquid interface. This regime is also accompanied by the detachment of droplets from the interface and their entrainment into the gas phase. We carry out an experimental study involving axial- and radial-view photography of the flow, in the presence and absence of surfactant. We show that the effect of surfactant is to reduce significantly the average diameter of the entrained droplets, through a tip-streaming mechanism. We also highlight the influence of surfactant on the characteristics of the interfacial waves, and the pressure gradient that drives the flow. EPSRC Programme Grant EP/K003976/1.

  10. An agent-based QoS provisioning mechanism for WDM optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yong; Zeng, Qingji; Yue, Ling

    2004-04-01

    This paper addresses QoS provisioning mechanisms in the WDM optical networks. With the appearance of metropolitan optical network, a hierarchical metro and wide area optical network will be envisioned in the near future. This hierarchical optical transport network is often divided into optical domains by geography, administration and technology, which usually employ different QoS routing algorithms and policies. To provide end-to-end optical QoS is becoming a new challenge for the optical network design. In this paper, we first give an overview of issues on the QoS provisioning in data, control and management planes of the WDM optical network. And then three provisioning approaches are analyzed and compared. Finally, we propose an agent-based hybrid centralized/distributed QoS provisioning mechanism based on the concept of domain agent. This agent-based hybrid mechanism employs centralized approach in the domain and distributed approach between domains. It offers scalability and intra-domain optimal QoS routing. It also keeps independence and interoperability between domains.

  11. Agent Based Fuzzy T-S Multi-Model System and Its Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaopeng Zhao

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Based on the basic concepts of agent and fuzzy T-S model, an agent based fuzzy T-S multi-model (ABFT-SMM system is proposed in this paper. Different from the traditional method, the parameters and the membership value of the agent can be adjusted along with the process. In this system, each agent can be described as a dynamic equation, which can be seen as the local part of the multi-model, and it can execute the task alone or collaborate with other agents to accomplish a fixed goal. It is proved in this paper that the agent based fuzzy T-S multi-model system can approximate any linear or nonlinear system at arbitrary accuracy. The applications to the benchmark problem of chaotic time series prediction, water heater system and waste heat utilizing process illustrate the viability and the efficiency of the mentioned approach. At the same time, the method can be easily used to a number of engineering fields, including identification, nonlinear control, fault diagnostics and performance analysis.

  12. A mathematical framework for agent based models of complex biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkelmann, Franziska; Murrugarra, David; Jarrah, Abdul Salam; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2011-07-01

    Agent-based modeling and simulation is a useful method to study biological phenomena in a wide range of fields, from molecular biology to ecology. Since there is currently no agreed-upon standard way to specify such models, it is not always easy to use published models. Also, since model descriptions are not usually given in mathematical terms, it is difficult to bring mathematical analysis tools to bear, so that models are typically studied through simulation. In order to address this issue, Grimm et al. proposed a protocol for model specification, the so-called ODD protocol, which provides a standard way to describe models. This paper proposes an addition to the ODD protocol which allows the description of an agent-based model as a dynamical system, which provides access to computational and theoretical tools for its analysis. The mathematical framework is that of algebraic models, that is, time-discrete dynamical systems with algebraic structure. It is shown by way of several examples how this mathematical specification can help with model analysis. This mathematical framework can also accommodate other model types such as Boolean networks and the more general logical models, as well as Petri nets.

  13. An agent-based method for simulating porous fluid-saturated structures with indistinguishable components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Jamal; Pettet, Graeme John; Gu, YuanTong; Zhang, Lihai; Oloyede, Adekunle

    2017-10-01

    Single-phase porous materials contain multiple components that intermingle up to the ultramicroscopic level. Although the structures of the porous materials have been simulated with agent-based methods, the results of the available methods continue to provide patterns of distinguishable solid and fluid agents which do not represent materials with indistinguishable phases. This paper introduces a new agent (hybrid agent) and category of rules (intra-agent rule) that can be used to create emergent structures that would more accurately represent single-phase structures and materials. The novel hybrid agent carries the characteristics of system's elements and it is capable of changing within itself, while also responding to its neighbours as they also change. As an example, the hybrid agent under one-dimensional cellular automata formalism in a two-dimensional domain is used to generate patterns that demonstrate the striking morphological and characteristic similarities with the porous saturated single-phase structures where each agent of the ;structure; carries semi-permeability property and consists of both fluid and solid in space and at all times. We conclude that the ability of the hybrid agent to change locally provides an enhanced protocol to simulate complex porous structures such as biological tissues which could facilitate models for agent-based techniques and numerical methods.

  14. Intelligent Agent-Based Intrusion Detection System Using Enhanced Multiclass SVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganapathy, S.; Yogesh, P.; Kannan, A.

    2012-01-01

    Intrusion detection systems were used in the past along with various techniques to detect intrusions in networks effectively. However, most of these systems are able to detect the intruders only with high false alarm rate. In this paper, we propose a new intelligent agent-based intrusion detection model for mobile ad hoc networks using a combination of attribute selection, outlier detection, and enhanced multiclass SVM classification methods. For this purpose, an effective preprocessing technique is proposed that improves the detection accuracy and reduces the processing time. Moreover, two new algorithms, namely, an Intelligent Agent Weighted Distance Outlier Detection algorithm and an Intelligent Agent-based Enhanced Multiclass Support Vector Machine algorithm are proposed for detecting the intruders in a distributed database environment that uses intelligent agents for trust management and coordination in transaction processing. The experimental results of the proposed model show that this system detects anomalies with low false alarm rate and high-detection rate when tested with KDD Cup 99 data set. PMID:23056036

  15. Group-Wise Herding Behavior in Financial Markets: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minsung; Kim, Minki

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we shed light on the dynamic characteristics of rational group behaviors and the relationship between monetary policy and economic units in the financial market by using an agent-based model (ABM), the Hurst exponent, and the Shannon entropy. First, an agent-based model is used to analyze the characteristics of the group behaviors at different levels of irrationality. Second, the Hurst exponent is applied to analyze the characteristics of the trend-following irrationality group. Third, the Shannon entropy is used to analyze the randomness and unpredictability of group behavior. We show that in a system that focuses on macro-monetary policy, steep fluctuations occur, meaning that the medium-level irrationality group has the highest Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy among all of the groups. However, in a system that focuses on micro-monetary policy, all group behaviors follow a stable trend, and the medium irrationality group thus remains stable, too. Likewise, in a system that focuses on both micro- and macro-monetary policies, all groups tend to be stable. Consequently, we find that group behavior varies across economic units at each irrationality level for micro- and macro-monetary policy in the financial market. Together, these findings offer key insights into monetary policy. PMID:24714635

  16. Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Venkatramanan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects of various interventions in place. Under this setting, detailed computational models provide a comprehensive framework for integrating diverse data sources into a well-defined model of disease dynamics and social behavior, potentially leading to better understanding and actions. In this paper, we describe one such agent-based model framework developed for forecasting the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in Liberia, and subsequently used during the Ebola forecasting challenge. We describe the various components of the model, the calibration process and summarize the forecast performance across scenarios of the challenge. We conclude by highlighting how such a data-driven approach can be refined and adapted for future epidemics, and share the lessons learned over the course of the challenge. Keywords: Emerging infectious diseases, Agent-based models, Simulation optimization, Bayesian calibration, Ebola

  17. An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

    2016-04-01

    We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

  18. iCrowd: agent-based behavior modeling and crowd simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kountouriotis, Vassilios I.; Paterakis, Manolis; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    Initially designed in the context of the TASS (Total Airport Security System) FP-7 project, the Crowd Simulation platform developed by the Integrated Systems Lab of the Institute of Informatics and Telecommunications at N.C.S.R. Demokritos, has evolved into a complete domain-independent agent-based behavior simulator with an emphasis on crowd behavior and building evacuation simulation. Under continuous development, it reflects an effort to implement a modern, multithreaded, data-oriented simulation engine employing latest state-of-the-art programming technologies and paradigms. It is based on an extensible architecture that separates core services from the individual layers of agent behavior, offering a concrete simulation kernel designed for high-performance and stability. Its primary goal is to deliver an abstract platform to facilitate implementation of several Agent-Based Simulation solutions with applicability in several domains of knowledge, such as: (i) Crowd behavior simulation during [in/out] door evacuation. (ii) Non-Player Character AI for Game-oriented applications and Gamification activities. (iii) Vessel traffic modeling and simulation for Maritime Security and Surveillance applications. (iv) Urban and Highway Traffic and Transportation Simulations. (v) Social Behavior Simulation and Modeling.

  19. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  20. Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

  1. Introducing spatial information into predictive NF-kappaB modelling--an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Pogson

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Nature is governed by local interactions among lower-level sub-units, whether at the cell, organ, organism, or colony level. Adaptive system behaviour emerges via these interactions, which integrate the activity of the sub-units. To understand the system level it is necessary to understand the underlying local interactions. Successful models of local interactions at different levels of biological organisation, including epithelial tissue and ant colonies, have demonstrated the benefits of such 'agent-based' modelling. Here we present an agent-based approach to modelling a crucial biological system--the intracellular NF-kappaB signalling pathway. The pathway is vital to immune response regulation, and is fundamental to basic survival in a range of species. Alterations in pathway regulation underlie a variety of diseases, including atherosclerosis and arthritis. Our modelling of individual molecules, receptors and genes provides a more comprehensive outline of regulatory network mechanisms than previously possible with equation-based approaches. The method also permits consideration of structural parameters in pathway regulation; here we predict that inhibition of NF-kappaB is directly affected by actin filaments of the cytoskeleton sequestering excess inhibitors, therefore regulating steady-state and feedback behaviour.

  2. Agent-based modeling of the energy network for hybrid cars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez de Durana, José María; Barambones, Oscar; Kremers, Enrique; Varga, Liz

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An approach to represent and calculate multicarrier energy networks has been developed. • It provides a modeling method based on agents, for multicarrier energy networks. • It allows the system representation on a single sheet. • Energy flows circulating in the system can be observed dynamically during simulation. • The method is technology independent. - Abstract: Studies in complex energy networks devoted to the modeling of electrical power grids, were extended in previous work, where a computational multi-layered ontology, implemented using agent-based methods, was adopted. This structure is compatible with recently introduced Multiplex Networks which using Multi-linear Algebra generalize some of classical results for single-layer networks, to multilayer networks in steady state. Static results do not assist overly in understanding dynamic networks in which the values of the variables in the nodes and edges can change suddenly, driven by events, and even where new nodes or edges may appear or disappear, also because of other events. To address this gap, a computational agent-based model is developed to extend the multi-layer and multiplex approaches. In order to demonstrate the benefits of a dynamical extension, a model of the energy network in a hybrid car is presented as a case study

  3. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-01-01

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model

  4. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework and Application for the Generic Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gidden, Matthew J.

    Key components of a novel methodology and implementation of an agent-based, dynamic nuclear fuel cycle simulator, Cyclus , are presented. The nuclear fuel cycle is a complex, physics-dependent supply chain. To date, existing dynamic simulators have not treated constrained fuel supply, time-dependent, isotopic-quality based demand, or fuel fungibility particularly well. Utilizing an agent-based methodology that incorporates sophisticated graph theory and operations research techniques can overcome these deficiencies. This work describes a simulation kernel and agents that interact with it, highlighting the Dynamic Resource Exchange (DRE), the supply-demand framework at the heart of the kernel. The key agent-DRE interaction mechanisms are described, which enable complex entity interaction through the use of physics and socio-economic models. The translation of an exchange instance to a variant of the Multicommodity Transportation Problem, which can be solved feasibly or optimally, follows. An extensive investigation of solution performance and fidelity is then presented. Finally, recommendations for future users of Cyclus and the DRE are provided.

  5. Multi-agent based distributed control architecture for microgrid energy management and optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basir Khan, M. Reyasudin; Jidin, Razali; Pasupuleti, Jagadeesh

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new multi-agent based distributed control architecture for energy management. • Multi-agent coordination based on non-cooperative game theory. • A microgrid model comprised of renewable energy generation systems. • Performance comparison of distributed with conventional centralized control. - Abstract: Most energy management systems are based on a centralized controller that is difficult to satisfy criteria such as fault tolerance and adaptability. Therefore, a new multi-agent based distributed energy management system architecture is proposed in this paper. The distributed generation system is composed of several distributed energy resources and a group of loads. A multi-agent system based decentralized control architecture was developed in order to provide control for the complex energy management of the distributed generation system. Then, non-cooperative game theory was used for the multi-agent coordination in the system. The distributed generation system was assessed by simulation under renewable resource fluctuations, seasonal load demand and grid disturbances. The simulation results show that the implementation of the new energy management system proved to provide more robust and high performance controls than conventional centralized energy management systems.

  6. Reaching unanimous agreements within agent-based negotiation teams with linear and monotonic utility functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Anguix, Victor; Julian, Vicente; Botti, Vicente; García-Fornes, Ana

    2012-06-01

    In this article, an agent-based negotiation model for negotiation teams that negotiate a deal with an opponent is presented. Agent-based negotiation teams are groups of agents that join together as a single negotiation party because they share an interest that is related to the negotiation process. The model relies on a trusted mediator that coordinates and helps team members in the decisions that they have to take during the negotiation process: which offer is sent to the opponent, and whether the offers received from the opponent are accepted. The main strength of the proposed negotiation model is the fact that it guarantees unanimity within team decisions since decisions report a utility to team members that is greater than or equal to their aspiration levels at each negotiation round. This work analyzes how unanimous decisions are taken within the team and the robustness of the model against different types of manipulations. An empirical evaluation is also performed to study the impact of the different parameters of the model.

  7. Strategic directions for agent-based modeling: avoiding the YAAWN syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, David; Evans, Tom; Manson, Steven; Metcalf, Sara; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Bone, Chris

    In this short communication, we examine how agent-based modeling has become common in land change science and is increasingly used to develop case studies for particular times and places. There is a danger that the research community is missing a prime opportunity to learn broader lessons from the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), or at the very least not sharing these lessons more widely. How do we find an appropriate balance between empirically rich, realistic models and simpler theoretically grounded models? What are appropriate and effective approaches to model evaluation in light of uncertainties not only in model parameters but also in model structure? How can we best explore hybrid model structures that enable us to better understand the dynamics of the systems under study, recognizing that no single approach is best suited to this task? Under what circumstances - in terms of model complexity, model evaluation, and model structure - can ABMs be used most effectively to lead to new insight for stakeholders? We explore these questions in the hope of helping the growing community of land change scientists using models in their research to move from 'yet another model' to doing better science with models.

  8. Spatial Planning and Policy Evaluation in an Urban Conurbation: a Regional Agent-Based Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzius Stricker

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies different functions and relations between 45 agglomerated municipalities in southern Switzerland (Ticino, using a territorial agent-based model. Our research adopts a bottom-up approach to urban systems, considering the agglomeration mechanism and effects of different regional and urban policies, and simulates the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city using an Agent-based model (ABM. Simulating the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city and measuring the resulting system behaviour and outcomes over time, they effectively provide a good test bed for evaluating the impact of different policies. The database is created merging the Swiss official secondary data for one reference year (2011 with Eurostat and OECD-Regpat. The results highlight that the understanding of municipalities’ functions on the territory appears to be essential for designing a solid institutional agglomeration (or city. From a methodological point of view, we contribute to improve the application of territorial ABM. Finally, our results provide a robust base to evaluate in a dynamic way various political interventions, in order to ensure a sustainable development of the agglomeration and the surrounding territories. Applying the analyses and the model on a larger scale, including further regions and conurbations, and including more indicators and variables, to obtain a more detailed and characteristic model, will constitute a further step of the research.

  9. Towards a standard model for research in agent-based modeling and simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno Fachada

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Agent-based modeling (ABM is a bottom-up modeling approach, where each entity of the system being modeled is uniquely represented as an independent decision-making agent. ABMs are very sensitive to implementation details. Thus, it is very easy to inadvertently introduce changes which modify model dynamics. Such problems usually arise due to the lack of transparency in model descriptions, which constrains how models are assessed, implemented and replicated. In this paper, we present PPHPC, a model which aims to serve as a standard in agent based modeling research, namely, but not limited to, conceptual model specification, statistical analysis of simulation output, model comparison and parallelization studies. This paper focuses on the first two aspects (conceptual model specification and statistical analysis of simulation output, also providing a canonical implementation of PPHPC. The paper serves as a complete reference to the presented model, and can be used as a tutorial for simulation practitioners who wish to improve the way they communicate their ABMs.

  10. Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walpole, J; Chappell, J C; Cluceru, J G; Mac Gabhann, F; Bautch, V L; Peirce, S M

    2015-09-01

    Many biological processes are controlled by both deterministic and stochastic influences. However, efforts to model these systems often rely on either purely stochastic or purely rule-based methods. To better understand the balance between stochasticity and determinism in biological processes a computational approach that incorporates both influences may afford additional insight into underlying biological mechanisms that give rise to emergent system properties. We apply a combined approach to the simulation and study of angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels from existing networks. This complex multicellular process begins with selection of an initiating endothelial cell, or tip cell, which sprouts from the parent vessels in response to stimulation by exogenous cues. We have constructed an agent-based model of sprouting angiogenesis to evaluate endothelial cell sprout initiation frequency and location, and we have experimentally validated it using high-resolution time-lapse confocal microscopy. ABM simulations were then compared to a Monte Carlo model, revealing that purely stochastic simulations could not generate sprout locations as accurately as the rule-informed agent-based model. These findings support the use of rule-based approaches for modeling the complex mechanisms underlying sprouting angiogenesis over purely stochastic methods.

  11. An agent-based analysis of the German electricity market with transmission capacity constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veit, Daniel J.; Weidlich, Anke; Krafft, Jacob A.

    2009-01-01

    While some agent-based models have been developed for analyzing the German electricity market, there has been little research done on the emerging issue of intra-German congestion and its effects on the bidding behavior of generator agents. Yet, studies of other markets have shown that transmission grid constraints considerably affect strategic behavior in electricity markets. In this paper, the implications of transmission constraints on power markets are analyzed for the case of Germany. Market splitting is applied in the case of congestion in the grid. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling of electricity systems (AMES) market package developed by Sun and Tesfatsion is modified to fit the German context, including a detailed representation of the German high-voltage grid and its interconnections. Implications of transmission constraints on prices and social welfare are analyzed for scenarios that include strategic behavior of market participants and high wind power generation. It can be shown that strategic behavior and transmission constraints are inter-related and may pose severe problems in the future German electricity market.

  12. Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Natalini

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1 the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2 the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1 testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2 evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.

  13. Linking agent-based models and stochastic models of financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen; Podobnik, Boris; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene

    2012-05-29

    It is well-known that financial asset returns exhibit fat-tailed distributions and long-term memory. These empirical features are the main objectives of modeling efforts using (i) stochastic processes to quantitatively reproduce these features and (ii) agent-based simulations to understand the underlying microscopic interactions. After reviewing selected empirical and theoretical evidence documenting the behavior of traders, we construct an agent-based model to quantitatively demonstrate that "fat" tails in return distributions arise when traders share similar technical trading strategies and decisions. Extending our behavioral model to a stochastic model, we derive and explain a set of quantitative scaling relations of long-term memory from the empirical behavior of individual market participants. Our analysis provides a behavioral interpretation of the long-term memory of absolute and squared price returns: They are directly linked to the way investors evaluate their investments by applying technical strategies at different investment horizons, and this quantitative relationship is in agreement with empirical findings. Our approach provides a possible behavioral explanation for stochastic models for financial systems in general and provides a method to parameterize such models from market data rather than from statistical fitting.

  14. Walk This Way: Improving Pedestrian Agent-Based Models through Scene Activity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Crooks

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrian movement is woven into the fabric of urban regions. With more people living in cities than ever before, there is an increased need to understand and model how pedestrians utilize and move through space for a variety of applications, ranging from urban planning and architecture to security. Pedestrian modeling has been traditionally faced with the challenge of collecting data to calibrate and validate such models of pedestrian movement. With the increased availability of mobility datasets from video surveillance and enhanced geolocation capabilities in consumer mobile devices we are now presented with the opportunity to change the way we build pedestrian models. Within this paper we explore the potential that such information offers for the improvement of agent-based pedestrian models. We introduce a Scene- and Activity-Aware Agent-Based Model (SA2-ABM, a method for harvesting scene activity information in the form of spatiotemporal trajectories, and incorporate this information into our models. In order to assess and evaluate the improvement offered by such information, we carry out a range of experiments using real-world datasets. We demonstrate that the use of real scene information allows us to better inform our model and enhance its predictive capabilities.

  15. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-06-12

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.

  16. An efficient communication strategy for mobile agent based distributed spatial data mining application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guodong; Wang, Jiazhen

    2005-11-01

    An efficient communication strategy is proposed in this paper, which aims to improve the response time and availability of mobile agent based distributed spatial data mining applications. When dealing with decomposed complex data mining tasks or On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP), mobile agents authorized by the specified user need to coordinate and cooperate with each other by employing given communication method to fulfill the subtasks delegated to them. Agent interactive behavior, e.g. messages passing, intermediate results exchanging and final results merging, must happen after the specified path is determined by executing given routing selection algorithm. Most of algorithms exploited currently run in time that grows approximately quadratic with the size of the input nodes where mobile agents migrate between. In order to gain enhanced communication performance by reducing the execution time of the decision algorithm, we propose an approach to reduce the number of nodes involved in the computation. In practice, hosts in the system are reorganized into groups in terms of the bandwidth between adjacent nodes. Then, we find an optimal node for each group with high bandwidth and powerful computing resources, which is managed by an agent dispatched by agent home node. With that, the communication pattern can be implemented at a higher level of abstraction and contribute to improving the overall performance of mobile agent based distributed spatial data mining applications.

  17. Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbrook-Johnson, Peter; Badham, Jennifer; Gilbert, Nigel

    2017-08-01

    Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

  18. Towards a framework for agent-based image analysis of remote-sensing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, Peter; Lettmayer, Paul; Blaschke, Thomas; Belgiu, Mariana; Wegenkittl, Stefan; Graf, Roland; Lampoltshammer, Thomas Josef; Andrejchenko, Vera

    2015-04-03

    Object-based image analysis (OBIA) as a paradigm for analysing remotely sensed image data has in many cases led to spatially and thematically improved classification results in comparison to pixel-based approaches. Nevertheless, robust and transferable object-based solutions for automated image analysis capable of analysing sets of images or even large image archives without any human interaction are still rare. A major reason for this lack of robustness and transferability is the high complexity of image contents: Especially in very high resolution (VHR) remote-sensing data with varying imaging conditions or sensor characteristics, the variability of the objects' properties in these varying images is hardly predictable. The work described in this article builds on so-called rule sets. While earlier work has demonstrated that OBIA rule sets bear a high potential of transferability, they need to be adapted manually, or classification results need to be adjusted manually in a post-processing step. In order to automate these adaptation and adjustment procedures, we investigate the coupling, extension and integration of OBIA with the agent-based paradigm, which is exhaustively investigated in software engineering. The aims of such integration are (a) autonomously adapting rule sets and (b) image objects that can adopt and adjust themselves according to different imaging conditions and sensor characteristics. This article focuses on self-adapting image objects and therefore introduces a framework for agent-based image analysis (ABIA).

  19. An agent-based analysis of the German electricity market with transmission capacity constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veit, Daniel J.; Weidlich, Anke; Krafft, Jacob A. [University of Mannheim, Dieter Schwarz Chair of Business Administration, E-Business and E-Government, 68131 Mannheim (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    While some agent-based models have been developed for analyzing the German electricity market, there has been little research done on the emerging issue of intra-German congestion and its effects on the bidding behavior of generator agents. Yet, studies of other markets have shown that transmission grid constraints considerably affect strategic behavior in electricity markets. In this paper, the implications of transmission constraints on power markets are analyzed for the case of Germany. Market splitting is applied in the case of congestion in the grid. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling of electricity systems (AMES) market package developed by Sun and Tesfatsion is modified to fit the German context, including a detailed representation of the German high-voltage grid and its interconnections. Implications of transmission constraints on prices and social welfare are analyzed for scenarios that include strategic behavior of market participants and high wind power generation. It can be shown that strategic behavior and transmission constraints are inter-related and may pose severe problems in the future German electricity market. (author)

  20. Simulating the elimination of sleeping sickness with an agent-based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grébaut Pascal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Although Human African Trypanosomiasis is largely considered to be in the process of extinction today, the persistence of human and animal reservoirs, as well as the vector, necessitates a laborious elimination process. In this context, modeling could be an effective tool to evaluate the ability of different public health interventions to control the disease. Using the Cormas® system, we developed HATSim, an agent-based model capable of simulating the possible endemic evolutions of sleeping sickness and the ability of National Control Programs to eliminate the disease. This model takes into account the analysis of epidemiological, entomological, and ecological data from field studies conducted during the last decade, making it possible to predict the evolution of the disease within this area over a 5-year span. In this article, we first present HATSim according to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD protocol that is classically used to describe agent-based models, then, in a second part, we present predictive results concerning the evolution of Human African Trypanosomiasis in the village of Lambi (Cameroon, in order to illustrate the interest of such a tool. Our results are consistent with what was observed in the field by the Cameroonian National Control Program (CNCP. Our simulations also revealed that regular screening can be sufficient, although vector control applied to all areas with human activities could be significantly more efficient. Our results indicate that the current model can already help decision-makers in planning the elimination of the disease in foci.

  1. Agent-Based Model of Information Security System: Architecture and Formal Framework for Coordinated Intelligent Agents Behavior Specification

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gorodetski, Vladimir

    2001-01-01

    The contractor will research and further develop the technology supporting an agent-based architecture for an information security system and a formal framework to specify a model of distributed knowledge...

  2. Improved patient selection by stratified surgical intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Miao; Bünger, Cody E; Li, Haisheng

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Choosing the best surgical treatment for patients with spinal metastases remains a significant challenge for spine surgeons. There is currently no gold standard for surgical treatments. The Aarhus Spinal Metastases Algorithm (ASMA) was established to help surgeons choose...... the most appropriate surgical intervention for patients with spinal metastases. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical outcome of stratified surgical interventions based on the ASMA, which combines life expectancy and the anatomical classification of patients with spinal metastases...... survival times in the five surgical groups determined by the ASMA were 2.1 (TS 0-4, TC 1-7), 5.1 (TS 5-8, TC 1-7), 12.1 (TS 9-11, TC 1-7 or TS 12-15, TC 7), 26.0 (TS 12-15, TC 4-6), and 36.0 (TS 12-15, TC 1-3) months. The 30-day mortality rate was 7.5%. Postoperative neurological function was maintained...

  3. Experimental study of unsteady thermally stratified flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Jun; Chung, Myung Kyoon

    1985-01-01

    Unsteady thermally stratified flow caused by two-dimensional surface discharge of warm water into a oblong channel was investigated. Experimental study was focused on the rapidly developing thermal diffusion at small Richardson number. The basic objectives were to study the interfacial mixing between a flowing layer of warm water and an underlying body of cold water and to accumulate experimental data to test computational turbulence models. Mean velocity field measurements were carried out by using NMR-CT(Nuclear Magnetic Resonance-Computerized Tomography). It detects quantitative flow image of any desired section in any direction of flow in short time. Results show that at small Richardson number warm layer rapidly penetrates into the cold layer because of strong turbulent mixing and instability between the two layers. It is found that the transfer of heat across the interface is more vigorous than that of momentum. It is also proved that the NMR-CT technique is a very valuable tool to measure unsteady three dimensional flow field. (Author)

  4. Classification of archaeologically stratified pumice by INAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltz, C.; Bichler, M.

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of the research program 'Synchronization of Civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean Region in the 2nd Millenium B.C.' instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) was used to determine 30 elements in pumice from archaeological excavations to reveal their specific volcanic origin. The widespread pumiceous products of several eruptions in the Aegean region were used as abrasive tools and were therefore popular trade objects. A remarkable quantity of pumice and pumiceous tephra (several km 3 ) was produced by the 'Minoan eruption' of Thera (Santorini), which is assumed to have happened between 1450 and 1650 B.C. Thus the discovery of the primary fallout of 'Minoan' tephra in archaeologically stratified locations can be used as a relative time mark. Additionally, pumice lumps used as abrasive can serve for dating by first appearance. Essential to an identification of the primary volcanic source is the knowledge that pumices from the Aegean region can easily be distinguished by their trace element distribution patterns, as previous work has shown. The elements Al, Ba, Ca, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Dy, Eu, Fe, Hf, K, La, Lu, Mn, Na, Nd, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, Ti, U, V, Yb, Zn and Zr were determined in 16 samples of pumice lumps from excavations in Tell-el-Dab'a and Tell-el-Herr (Egypt). Two irradiation cycles and five measurement runs were applied. A reliable identification of the samples is achieved by comparing these results to the database compiled in previous studies. (author)

  5. Turbulent fluxes in stably stratified boundary layers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    L'vov, Victor S; Procaccia, Itamar; Rudenko, Oleksii

    2008-01-01

    We present here an extended version of an invited talk we gave at the international conference 'Turbulent Mixing and Beyond'. The dynamical and statistical description of stably stratified turbulent boundary layers with the important example of the stable atmospheric boundary layer in mind is addressed. Traditional approaches to this problem, based on the profiles of mean quantities, velocity second-order correlations and dimensional estimates of the turbulent thermal flux, run into a well-known difficulty, predicting the suppression of turbulence at a small critical value of the Richardson number, in contradiction to observations. Phenomenological attempts to overcome this problem suffer from various theoretical inconsistencies. Here, we present an approach taking into full account all the second-order statistics, which allows us to respect the conservation of total mechanical energy. The analysis culminates in an analytic solution of the profiles of all mean quantities and all second-order correlations, removing the unphysical predictions of previous theories. We propose that the approach taken here is sufficient to describe the lower parts of the atmospheric boundary layer, as long as the Richardson number does not exceed an order of unity. For much higher Richardson numbers, the physics may change qualitatively, requiring careful consideration of the potential Kelvin-Helmoholtz waves and their interaction with the vortical turbulence.

  6. Analysis of Turbulent Combustion in Simplified Stratified Charge Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriyoshi, Yasuo; Morikawa, Hideaki; Komatsu, Eiji

    The stratified charge combustion system has been widely studied due to the significant potentials for low fuel consumption rate and low exhaust gas emissions. The fuel-air mixture formation process in a direct-injection stratified charge engine is influenced by various parameters, such as atomization, evaporation, and in-cylinder gas motion at high temperature and high pressure conditions. It is difficult to observe the in-cylinder phenomena in such conditions and also challenging to analyze the following stratified charge combustion. Therefore, the combustion phenomena in simplified stratified charge conditions aiming to analyze the fundamental stratified charge combustion are examined. That is, an experimental apparatus which can control the mixture distribution and the gas motion at ignition timing was developed, and the effects of turbulence intensity, mixture concentration distribution, and mixture composition on stratified charge combustion were examined. As a result, the effects of fuel, charge stratification, and turbulence on combustion characteristics were clarified.

  7. An Empirical Agent-Based Model to Simulate the Adoption of Water Reuse Using the Social Amplification of Risk Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiah, Venu; Binder, Andrew R; Berglund, Emily Z

    2017-10-01

    Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large-scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision-making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent-based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the "risk publics" model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community-level parameters-including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data-are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Modelling of vapour explosion in stratified geometrie

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Picchi, St.

    1999-01-01

    When a hot liquid comes into contact with a colder volatile liquid, one can obtain in some conditions an explosive vaporization, told vapour explosion, whose consequences can be important on neighbouring structures. This explosion needs the intimate mixing and the fine fragmentation between the two liquids. In a stratified vapour explosion, these two liquids are initially superposed and separated by a vapor film. A triggering of the explosion can induce a propagation of this along the film. A study of experimental results and existent models has allowed to retain the following main points: - the explosion propagation is due to a pressure wave propagating through the medium; - the mixing is due to the development of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities induced by the shear velocity between the two liquids behind the pressure wave. The presence of the vapour in the volatile liquid explains experimental propagation velocity and the velocity difference between the two fluids at the pressure wave crossing. A first model has been proposed by Brayer in 1994 in order to describe the fragmentation and the mixing of the two fluids. Results of the author do not show explosion propagation. We have therefore built a new mixing-fragmentation model based on the atomization phenomenon that develops itself during the pressure wave crossing. We have also taken into account the transient aspect of the heat transfer between fuel drops and the volatile liquid, and elaborated a model of transient heat transfer. These two models have been introduced in a multi-components, thermal, hydraulic code, MC3D. Results of calculation show a qualitative and quantitative agreement with experimental results and confirm basic options of the model. (author)

  9. A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

    2013-11-15

    Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second

  10. Systems of Interaction between the First Sedentary Villages in the Near East Exposed Using Agent-Based Modelling of Obsidian Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Ortega

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the Near East, nomadic hunter-gatherer societies became sedentary farmers for the first time during the transition into the Neolithic. Sedentary life presented a risk of isolation for Neolithic groups. As fluid intergroup interactions are crucial for the sharing of information, resources and genes, Neolithic villages developed a network of contacts. In this paper we study obsidian exchange between Neolithic villages in order to characterize this network of interaction. Using agent-based modelling and elements taken from complex network theory, we model obsidian exchange and compare results with archaeological data. We demonstrate that complex networks of interaction were established at the outset of the Neolithic and hypothesize that the existence of these complex networks was a necessary condition for the success and spread of a new way of living.

  11. Information driving force and its application in agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2018-04-01

    Exploring the scientific impact of online big-data has attracted much attention of researchers from different fields in recent years. Complex financial systems are typical open systems profoundly influenced by the external information. Based on the large-scale data in the public media and stock markets, we first define an information driving force, and analyze how it affects the complex financial system. The information driving force is observed to be asymmetric in the bull and bear market states. As an application, we then propose an agent-based model driven by the information driving force. Especially, all the key parameters are determined from the empirical analysis rather than from statistical fitting of the simulation results. With our model, both the stationary properties and non-stationary dynamic behaviors are simulated. Considering the mean-field effect of the external information, we also propose a few-body model to simulate the financial market in the laboratory.

  12. CystiSim - an agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission and control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission...... interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes...... and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts...

  13. Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Niaz Arifin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

  14. Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

    An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

  15. An enhanced performance through agent-based secure approach for mobile ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisen, Dhananjay; Sharma, Sanjeev

    2018-01-01

    This paper proposes an agent-based secure enhanced performance approach (AB-SEP) for mobile ad hoc network. In this approach, agent nodes are selected through optimal node reliability as a factor. This factor is calculated on the basis of node performance features such as degree difference, normalised distance value, energy level, mobility and optimal hello interval of node. After selection of agent nodes, a procedure of malicious behaviour detection is performed using fuzzy-based secure architecture (FBSA). To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, comparative analysis is done with conventional schemes using performance parameters such as packet delivery ratio, throughput, total packet forwarding, network overhead, end-to-end delay and percentage of malicious detection.

  16. Agent-Based Model to Study and Quantify the Evolution Dynamics of Android Malware Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Alegre-Sanahuja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last years the number of malware Apps that the users download to their devices has risen. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model to quantify the Android malware infection evolution, modeling the behavior of the users and the different markets where the users may download Apps. The model predicts the number of infected smartphones depending on the type of malware. Additionally, we will estimate the cost that the users should afford when the malware is in their devices. We will be able to analyze which part is more critical: the users, giving indiscriminate permissions to the Apps or not protecting their devices with antivirus software, or the Android platform, due to the vulnerabilities of the Android devices that permit their rooted. We focus on the community of Valencia, Spain, although the obtained results can be extrapolated to other places where the number of Android smartphones remains fairly stable.

  17. [Methodological novelties applied to the anthropology of food: agent-based models and social networks analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz Córdova, Diego

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article is to introduce two methodological strategies that have not often been utilized in the anthropology of food: agent-based models and social networks analysis. In order to illustrate these methods in action, two cases based in materials typical of the anthropology of food are presented. For the first strategy, fieldwork carried out in Quebrada de Humahuaca (province of Jujuy, Argentina) regarding meal recall was used, and for the second, elements of the concept of "domestic consumption strategies" applied by Aguirre were employed. The underlying idea is that, given that eating is recognized as a "total social fact" and, therefore, as a complex phenomenon, the methodological approach must also be characterized by complexity. The greater the number of methods utilized (with the appropriate rigor), the better able we will be to understand the dynamics of feeding in the social environment.

  18. The Evolution of ICT Markets: An Agent-Based Model on Complex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liangjie; Wu, Bangtao; Chen, Zhong; Li, Li

    Information and communication technology (ICT) products exhibit positive network effects.The dynamic process of ICT markets evolution has two intrinsic characteristics: (1) customers are influenced by each others’ purchasing decision; (2) customers are intelligent agents with bounded rationality.Guided by complex systems theory, we construct an agent-based model and simulate on complex networks to examine how the evolution can arise from the interaction of customers, which occur when they make expectations about the future installed base of a product by the fraction of neighbors who are using the same product in his personal network.We demonstrate that network effects play an important role in the evolution of markets share, which make even an inferior product can dominate the whole market.We also find that the intensity of customers’ communication can influence whether the best initial strategy for firms is to improve product quality or expand their installed base.

  19. An Agent-Based Approach for Evaluating Basic Design Options of Management Accounting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friederike Wall

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing errors in management accounting systems with respect to organizational performance. In particular, different basic design options of management accounting systems of how to improve the information base by measurements of actual values are analyzed in different organizational contexts. The paper applies an agent-based simulation based on the idea of NK fitness landscapes. The results provide broad, but no universal support for conventional wisdom that lower inaccuracies of accounting information lead to more effective adaptation processes. Furthermore, results indicate that the effectiveness of improving the management accounting system subtly interferes with the complexity of the interactions within the organization and the coordination mode applied

  20. Solving the dial-a-ride problem using agent-based simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campbell, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The ‘dial-a-ride problem’ (DARP requires a set of customers to be transported by a limited fleet of vehicles between unique origins and destinations under several service constraints, including within defined time windows. The problem is considered NP-hard, and has typically been solved using metaheuristic methods. An agent-based simulation (ABS model was developed, where each vehicle bids to service customers based on a weighted objective function that considers the cost to service the customer and the time quality of the service that would be achieved. The approach applied a pre- processing technique to reduce the search space, given the service time window constraints. Tests of the model showed significantly better customer transit and waiting times than the benchmark datasets. The ABS was able to obtain solutions for much larger problem sizes than the benchmark solutions, with this work being the first known application of ABS to the DARP.

  1. A Risk Assessment Example for Soil Invertebrates Using Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, Melissa; Alvarez, Tania; Chelinho, Sonia

    2016-01-01

    Current risk assessment methods for measuring the toxicity of plant protection products (PPPs) on soil invertebrates use standardized laboratory conditions to determine acute effects on mortality and sublethal effects on reproduction. If an unacceptable risk is identified at the lower tier...... population models for ubiquitous soil invertebrates (collembolans and earthworms) as refinement options in current risk assessment. Both are spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs), incorporating individual and landscape variability. The models were used to provide refined risk assessments for different...... application scenarios of a hypothetical pesticide applied to potato crops (full-field spray onto the soil surface [termed “overall”], in-furrow, and soil-incorporated pesticide applications). In the refined risk assessment, the population models suggest that soil invertebrate populations would likely recover...

  2. Application of Transaction Costs in Analyzing Transport Corridors Using Multi-Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence E. Henesey

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In analyzing the freight transportation systems, such as thetransport of intermodal containers, often direct monetary costsassociated with transportation are used to evaluate or determinethe choice of transport corridor. In forming decisions ontransport co"idor choice, this paper proposes that transactioncosts can be considered as an additional determinant in conductingtransport corridor analysis. The application of transactioncosts theory in analyzing the organizations and the transactionsthat occur, assists in indicating as to which governancestructure results in higher efficiencies. Efficiency is seen as eitherthe minimisation on costs or the maximisation of customerservice levels. The use of multi-agent based simulation for modellingthe organisational structure and mechanisms provides anovel approach in understanding the relationships in a regionaltransport co"idor.

  3. An Agent-based Extensible Climate Control System for Sustainable Greenhouse Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Jan Corfixen; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard; Klein, Mark

    2011-01-01

    The slow adoption pace of new control strategies for sustainable greenhouse climate control by industrial growers is mainly due to the complexity of identifying and resolving potentially conflicting climate control requirements. In this paper, we present a multi-agent-based climate control system....... Negotiation is done using a novel multi-issue negotiation protocol that uses a generic algorithm to find an optimized solution within the search space. The Multi-Agent control system has been empirically evaluated in an ornamental floriculture research facility in Denmark. The evaluation showed...... that it is realistic to implement the climate control requirements as individual agents, thereby opening greenhouse climate control systems for integration of independently produced control strategies....

  4. Elements of decisional dynamics: An agent-based approach applied to artificial financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Iris; Cotsaftis, Michel; Bertelle, Cyrille

    2018-02-01

    This paper introduces an original mathematical description for describing agents' decision-making process in the case of problems affected by both individual and collective behaviors in systems characterized by nonlinear, path dependent, and self-organizing interactions. An application to artificial financial markets is proposed by designing a multi-agent system based on the proposed formalization. In this application, agents' decision-making process is based on fuzzy logic rules and the price dynamics is purely deterministic according to the basic matching rules of a central order book. Finally, while putting most parameters under evolutionary control, the computational agent-based system is able to replicate several stylized facts of financial time series (distributions of stock returns showing a heavy tail with positive excess kurtosis, absence of autocorrelations in stock returns, and volatility clustering phenomenon).

  5. Agent-based modeling: a new approach for theory building in social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eliot R; Conrey, Frederica R

    2007-02-01

    Most social and psychological phenomena occur not as the result of isolated decisions by individuals but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time. Yet the theory-building and modeling techniques most commonly used in social psychology are less than ideal for understanding such dynamic and interactive processes. This article describes an alternative approach to theory building, agent-based modeling (ABM), which involves simulation of large numbers of autonomous agents that interact with each other and with a simulated environment and the observation of emergent patterns from their interactions. The authors believe that the ABM approach is better able than prevailing approaches in the field, variable-based modeling (VBM) techniques such as causal modeling, to capture types of complex, dynamic, interactive processes so important in the social world. The article elaborates several important contrasts between ABM and VBM and offers specific recommendations for learning more and applying the ABM approach.

  6. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  7. Agent-based models for the emergence and evolution of grammar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steels, Luc

    2016-08-19

    Human languages are extraordinarily complex adaptive systems. They feature intricate hierarchical sound structures, are able to express elaborate meanings and use sophisticated syntactic and semantic structures to relate sound to meaning. What are the cognitive mechanisms that speakers and listeners need to create and sustain such a remarkable system? What is the collective evolutionary dynamics that allows a language to self-organize, become more complex and adapt to changing challenges in expressive power? This paper focuses on grammar. It presents a basic cycle observed in the historical language record, whereby meanings move from lexical to syntactic and then to a morphological mode of expression before returning to a lexical mode, and discusses how we can discover and validate mechanisms that can cause these shifts using agent-based models.This article is part of the themed issue 'The major synthetic evolutionary transitions'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  8. Decision Making in Complex Systems The DeciMaS Agent-based Interdisciplinary Framework Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Sokolova, Marina V

    2012-01-01

    The study of complex systems attracts the attention of many researchers in diverse fields. Complex systems are characterized by a high number of entities and a high degree of interactions. One of the most important features is that they do not involve a central organizing authority, but the various elements that make up the systems are self-organized. Moreover, some complex systems possess an emergency priority: climate change and sustainable development research, studies of public health, ecosystem habitats, epidemiology, and medicine, among others. Unfortunately, a great number of today’s overlapping approaches fail to meet the needs of decision makers when managing complex domains. Indeed, the design of complex systems often requires the integration of a number of artificial intelligence tools and techniques. The problem can be viewed in terms of goals, states, and actions, choosing the best action to move the system toward its desired state or behavior. This is why agent-based approaches are used to mod...

  9. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  10. MOVICLOUD: Agent-Based 3D Platform for the Labor Integration of Disabled People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto L. Barriuso

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Agent-Based Social Simulation (ABSS, used in combination with three-dimensional representation, makes it possible to do near-reality modeling and visualizations of changing and complex environments. In this paper, we describe the design and implementation of a tool that integrates these two techniques. The purpose of this tool is to assist in creating a work environment that is adapted to the needs of people with disabilities. The tool measures the degree of accessibility in the place of work and identifies the architectural barriers of the environment by considering the activities carried out by workers. Thus, thanks to the use of novel mechanisms and simulation techniques more people with disabilities will have the opportunity to work and feel comfortable in the environment. To validate the developed tool, a case study was performed in a real environment.

  11. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C

    2011-04-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents who interact with each other and actively participate in an economically well-defined marketplace. Parameters of the model are optimized using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. The quantitative prediction capabilities of the proposed model are examined through data reproducibility using past data from the U.S. and Korean wireless service markets. Finally, we investigate a disruptive market event, namely the introduction of the iPhone into the U.S. in 2007 and the resulting changes in the modeling parameters. We predict and analyze the impacts of the introduction of the iPhone into the Korean wireless service market assuming a release date of 2Q09 based on earlier data. © 2011 IEEE.

  12. An Agent-Based Labor Market Simulation with Endogenous Skill-Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemkow, S.

    This paper considers an agent-based labor market simulation to examine the influence of skills on wages and unemployment rates. Therefore less and highly skilled workers as well as less and highly productive vacancies are implemented. The skill distribution is exogenous whereas the distribution of the less and highly productive vacancies is endogenous. The different opportunities of the skill groups on the labor market are established by skill requirements. This means that a highly productive vacancy can only be filled by a highly skilled unemployed. Different skill distributions, which can also be interpreted as skill-biased technological change, are simulated by incrementing the skill level of highly skilled persons exogenously. This simulation also provides a microeconomic foundation of the matching function often used in theoretical approaches.

  13. Data Provenance for Agent-Based Models in a Distributed Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delmar B. Davis

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Agent-Based Models (ABMs assist with studying emergent collective behavior of individual entities in social, biological, economic, network, and physical systems. Data provenance can support ABM by explaining individual agent behavior. However, there is no provenance support for ABMs in a distributed setting. The Multi-Agent Spatial Simulation (MASS library provides a framework for simulating ABMs at fine granularity, where agents and spatial data are shared application resources in a distributed memory. We introduce a novel approach to capture ABM provenance in a distributed memory, called ProvMASS. We evaluate our technique with traditional data provenance queries and performance measures. Our results indicate that a configurable approach can capture provenance that explains coordination of distributed shared resources, simulation logic, and agent behavior while limiting performance overhead. We also show the ability to support practical analyses (e.g., agent tracking and storage requirements for different capture configurations.

  14. Skin Stem Cell Hypotheses and Long Term Clone Survival – Explored Using Agent-based Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Upadhyay, A. K.; Bullock, A. J.; Dicolandrea, T.; Xu, J.; Binder, R. L.; Robinson, M. K.; Finlay, D. R.; Mills, K. J.; Bascom, C. C.; Kelling, C. K.; Isfort, R. J.; Haycock, J. W.; MacNeil, S.; Smallwood, R. H.

    2013-01-01

    Epithelial renewal in skin is achieved by the constant turnover and differentiation of keratinocytes. Three popular hypotheses have been proposed to explain basal keratinocyte regeneration and epidermal homeostasis: 1) asymmetric division (stem-transit amplifying cell); 2) populational asymmetry (progenitor cell with stochastic fate); and 3) populational asymmetry with stem cells. In this study, we investigated lineage dynamics using these hypotheses with a 3D agent-based model of the epidermis. The model simulated the growth and maintenance of the epidermis over three years. The offspring of each proliferative cell was traced. While all lineages were preserved in asymmetric division, the vast majority were lost when assuming populational asymmetry. The third hypothesis provided the most reliable mechanism for self-renewal by preserving genetic heterogeneity in quiescent stem cells, and also inherent mechanisms for skin ageing and the accumulation of genetic mutation. PMID:23712735

  15. Skin stem cell hypotheses and long term clone survival--explored using agent-based modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X; Upadhyay, A K; Bullock, A J; Dicolandrea, T; Xu, J; Binder, R L; Robinson, M K; Finlay, D R; Mills, K J; Bascom, C C; Kelling, C K; Isfort, R J; Haycock, J W; MacNeil, S; Smallwood, R H

    2013-01-01

    Epithelial renewal in skin is achieved by the constant turnover and differentiation of keratinocytes. Three popular hypotheses have been proposed to explain basal keratinocyte regeneration and epidermal homeostasis: 1) asymmetric division (stem-transit amplifying cell); 2) populational asymmetry (progenitor cell with stochastic fate); and 3) populational asymmetry with stem cells. In this study, we investigated lineage dynamics using these hypotheses with a 3D agent-based model of the epidermis. The model simulated the growth and maintenance of the epidermis over three years. The offspring of each proliferative cell was traced. While all lineages were preserved in asymmetric division, the vast majority were lost when assuming populational asymmetry. The third hypothesis provided the most reliable mechanism for self-renewal by preserving genetic heterogeneity in quiescent stem cells, and also inherent mechanisms for skin ageing and the accumulation of genetic mutation.

  16. Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moro, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya.

  17. Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

    We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

  18. Designing environmental campaigns by using agent-based simulations: strategies for changing environmental attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Martens, Thomas

    2008-09-01

    Agent-based computer simulation was used to create artificial communities in which each individual was constructed according to the principles of the elaboration likelihood model of Petty and Cacioppo [1986. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In: Berkowitz, L. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Academic Press, New York, NY, pp. 123-205]. Campaigning strategies and community characteristics were varied systematically to understand and test their impact on attitudes towards environmental protection. The results show that strong arguments influence a green (environmentally concerned) population with many contacts most effectively, while peripheral cues have the greatest impact on a non-green population with fewer contacts. Overall, deeper information scrutiny increases the impact of strong arguments but is especially important for convincing green populations. Campaigns involving person-to-person communication are superior to mass-media campaigns because they can be adapted to recipients' characteristics.

  19. A multi-agent based intelligent configuration method for aircraft fleet maintenance personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Qiang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A multi-agent based fleet maintenance personnel configuration method is proposed to solve the mission oriented aircraft fleet maintenance personnel configuration problem. The maintenance process of an aircraft fleet is analyzed first. In the process each aircraft contains multiple parts, and different parts are repaired by personnel with different majors and levels. The factors and their relationship involved in the process of maintenance are analyzed and discussed. Then the whole maintenance process is described as a 3-layer multi-agent system (MAS model. A communication and reasoning strategy among the agents is put forward. A fleet maintenance personnel configuration algorithm is proposed based on contract net protocol (CNP. Finally, a fleet of 10 aircraft is studied for verification purposes. A mission type with 3 waves of continuous dispatch is imaged. Compared with the traditional methods that can just provide configuration results, the proposed method can provide optimal maintenance strategies as well.

  20. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  1. Agent-based Decentralization of Applications in Distributed Smart Grid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kienesberger, Georg; Xypolytou, Evangelia; Marchgraber, Jurgen

    2015-01-01

    systems (DMACS) and aims to give an overview on the different requirements and challenges on the way from current centralized control systems to DMACS. Therefore, different ICT scenarios and MAS topologies are employed to discuss the decentralization of three exemplary smart grid applications: voltage......Smart grid technology promises to prepare today’s power systems for the challenges of the future by extensive integration of information and communication technology (ICT). One key aspect is the control paradigm which will have to be shifted from completely centralized control systems to more...... dezentralized concepts in order to adapt to the distributed nature of smart grids. Multi-agent systems (MAS) are a very promising approach for designing distributed, decentralized systems, naturally also in the field of smart grids. This work introduces the notion of decentralized multi-agent-based control...

  2. Computational Research on Mobile Pastoralism Using Agent-Based Modeling and Satellite Imagery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takuto Sakamoto

    Full Text Available Dryland pastoralism has long attracted considerable attention from researchers in diverse fields. However, rigorous formal study is made difficult by the high level of mobility of pastoralists as well as by the sizable spatio-temporal variability of their environment. This article presents a new computational approach for studying mobile pastoralism that overcomes these issues. Combining multi-temporal satellite images and agent-based modeling allows a comprehensive examination of pastoral resource access over a realistic dryland landscape with unpredictable ecological dynamics. The article demonstrates the analytical potential of this approach through its application to mobile pastoralism in northeast Nigeria. Employing more than 100 satellite images of the area, extensive simulations are conducted under a wide array of circumstances, including different land-use constraints. The simulation results reveal complex dependencies of pastoral resource access on these circumstances along with persistent patterns of seasonal land use observed at the macro level.

  3. TOWARDS A MULTI-SCALE AGENT-BASED PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE METHODOLOGY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somogyi, Endre; Hagar, Amit; Glazier, James A

    2016-12-01

    Living tissues are dynamic, heterogeneous compositions of objects , including molecules, cells and extra-cellular materials, which interact via chemical, mechanical and electrical process and reorganize via transformation, birth, death and migration processes . Current programming language have difficulty describing the dynamics of tissues because: 1: Dynamic sets of objects participate simultaneously in multiple processes, 2: Processes may be either continuous or discrete, and their activity may be conditional, 3: Objects and processes form complex, heterogeneous relationships and structures, 4: Objects and processes may be hierarchically composed, 5: Processes may create, destroy and transform objects and processes. Some modeling languages support these concepts, but most cannot translate models into executable simulations. We present a new hybrid executable modeling language paradigm, the Continuous Concurrent Object Process Methodology ( CCOPM ) which naturally expresses tissue models, enabling users to visually create agent-based models of tissues, and also allows computer simulation of these models.

  4. A review of agent-based modeling approach in the supply chain collaboration context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvitrida, N. I.

    2018-04-01

    Collaboration is considered as the key aspect of supply chain management (SCM) success. This issue has been addressed by many studies in recent years, but there are still few research employs agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study business partnerships in SCM. This paper reviews the use of ABM in modeling collaboration in supply chains and inform the scope of ABM application in the existing literature. The review reveals that ABM can be an effective tool to address various aspects in supply chain relationships, but its applications in SCM studies are still limited. Moreover, where ABM is applied in the SCM context, most of the studies focus on software architecture rather than analyzing the supply chain issues. This paper also provides insights to SCM researchers about the opportunity uses of ABM in studying complexity in supply chain collaboration.

  5. Bounded Rational Managers Struggle with Talent Management - An Agent-based Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adamsen, Billy; Thomsen, Svend Erik

    This study applies an agent-based modeling approach to explore some aspects of an important managerial task: finding and cultivating talented individuals capable of creating value for their organization at some future state. Given that the term talent in talent management is an empty signifier...... and its denotative meaning floating, we propose that bounded rational managers base their decisions on a simple heuristic, i.e. selecting and cultivating individuals so that their capabilities resemble their own capabilities the most (Adamsen 2015). We model the consequences of this talent management...... heuristic by varying the capabilities of today’s managers, which in turn impact which individuals will be selected as talent. We model the average level of capabilities and the distribution thereof in the sample where managers identify and select individuals from. We consider varying degrees of path...

  6. Carbon emissions trading scheme exploration in China: A multi-agent-based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Ling; Wu, Jiaqian; Yu, Lean; Bao, Qin

    2015-01-01

    To develop a low-carbon economy, China launched seven pilot programs for carbon emissions trading (CET) in 2011 and plans to establish a nationwide CET mechanism in 2015. This paper formulated a multi-agent-based model to investigate the impacts of different CET designs in order to find the most appropriate one for China. The proposed bottom-up model includes all main economic agents in a general equilibrium framework. The simulation results indicate that (1) CET would effectively reduce carbon emissions, with a certain negative impact on the economy, (2) as for allowance allocation, the grandfathering rule is relatively moderate, while the benchmarking rule is more aggressive, (3) as for the carbon price, when the price level in the secondary CET market is regulated to be around RMB 40 per metric ton, a satisfactory emission mitigation effect can be obtained, (4) the penalty rate is suggested to be carefully designed to balance the economy development and mitigation effect, and (5) subsidy policy for energy technology improvement can effectively reduce carbon emissions without an additional negative impact on the economy. The results also indicate that the proposed novel model is a promising tool for CET policy making and analyses. -- Highlights: •A multi-agent-based model is proposed for carbon emissions trading (CET) in China. •Three agents are included: government, firms in different sectors and households. •The impacts of CET on the economy and environment in China are analyzed. •Different CET designs are simulated to find an appropriate policy for China. •Results confirm the effectiveness of the model and give helpful insights into CET design

  7. Improving rural electricity system planning: An agent-based model for stakeholder engagement and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfaro, Jose F.; Miller, Shelie; Johnson, Jeremiah X.; Riolo, Rick R.

    2017-01-01

    Energy planners in regions with low rates of electrification face complex and high-risk challenges in selecting appropriate generating technologies and grid centralization. To better inform such processes, we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) that facilitates engagement with stakeholders. This approach evaluates long-term plans using the cost of delivered electricity, resource mix, jobs and economic stimulus created within communities, and decentralized generation mix of the system, with results provided in a spatially-resolved format. This approach complements existing electricity planning methods (e.g., Integrated Resource Planning) by offering novel evaluation criteria based on typical stakeholder preferences. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with a case study based on a “blank-slate” scenario, which begins without generation or transmission infrastructure, for the long-term rural renewable energy plans of Liberia, West Africa. We consider five electrification strategies: prioritizing larger populations, deploying large resources, creating jobs, providing economic stimulus, and step-wise cost minimization. Through the case study we demonstrate how this approach can be used to engage stakeholders, supplement more established energy planning tools, and illustrate the effects of stakeholder decisions and preferences on the performance of the system. - Highlights: • An Agent Based Model, BABSTER, for electrification planning is presented. • BABSTER provides a highly engaging spatially resolved interface. • Allows flexible investigation of decision strategies with real-world incentives. • We show that decision strategies directly impact centralization and resource choice. • It is illustrated through the case study of Liberia, West Africa.

  8. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  9. Investigating the role of water in the Diffusion of Cholera using Agent-Based simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Doldersum, Tom; Augustijn, Denie

    2014-05-01

    Traditionally, cholera was considered to be a waterborne disease. Currently we know that many other factors can contribute to the spread of this disease including human mobility and human behavior. However, the hydrological component in cholera diffusion is significant. The interplay between cholera and water includes bacteria (V. cholera) that survive in the aquatic environment, the possibility that run-off water from dumpsites carries the bacteria to surface water (rivers and lakes), and when the bacteria reach streams they can be carried downstream to infect new locations. Modelling is a very important tool to build theory on the interplay between different types of transmission mechanisms that together are responsible for the spread of Cholera. Agent-based simulation models are very suitable to incorporate behavior at individual level and to reproduce emergence. However, it is more difficult to incorporate the hydrological components in this type of model. In this research we present the hydrological component of an Agent-Based Cholera model developed to study a Cholera epidemic in Kumasi (Ghana) in 2005. The model was calibrated on the relative contribution of each community to the distributed pattern of cholera rather than the absolute number of incidences. Analysis of the results shows that water plays an important role in the diffusion of cholera: 75% of the cholera cases were infected via river water that was contaminated by runoff from the dumpsites. To initiate infections upstream, the probability of environment-to-human transmission seemed to be overestimated compared to what may be expected from literature. Scenario analyses show that there is a strong relation between the epidemic curve and the rainfall. Removing dumpsites that are situated close to the river resulted in a strong decrease in the number of cholera cases. Results are sensitive to the scheduling of the daily activities and the survival time of the cholera bacteria.

  10. CystiSim - An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

    2016-12-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities-pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

  11. CystiSim – An Agent-Based Model for Taenia solium Transmission and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriël, Sarah; Dorny, Pierre; Speybroeck, Niko; Magnussen, Pascal; Torgerson, Paul; Johansen, Maria Vang

    2016-01-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol and consists of two entities—pigs and humans. Pigs acquire cysticercosis through the environment or by direct contact with a tapeworm carrier's faeces. Humans acquire taeniosis from slaughtered pigs proportional to their infection intensity. The model allows for evaluation of three interventions measures or combinations hereof: treatment of humans, treatment of pigs, and pig vaccination, and allows for customary coverage and efficacy settings. cystiSim is the first agent-based transmission model for T. solium and suggests that control using a strategy consisting of an intervention only targeting the porcine host is possible, but that coverage and efficacy must be high if elimination is the ultimate goal. Good coverage of the intervention is important, but can be compensated for by including an additional intervention targeting the human host. cystiSim shows that the scenarios combining interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes parasite maturation, host immunity, and environmental contamination. Adding these biological parameters to the model resulted in new insights in the potential

  12. Carbon allowance auction design of China's emissions trading scheme: A multi-agent-based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Ling; Wu, Jiaqian; Yu, Lean; Bao, Qin

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, a multi-agent-based ETS simulation model is proposed for carbon allowance auction design in China. In the proposed model, two main agents, i.e., the government (the ETS implementer) and the firms in different sectors (the ETS targets), are considered. Under the ETS policy, all agents make various decisions individually according to their own goals, and interact with each other through three main markets: the commodity market, the primary carbon auction market and the secondary carbon trading market. Different popular auction designs are introduced into the ETS formulation to offer helpful insights into China's ETS design. (1) Generally, the ETS would lead to positive effects on China's carbon mitigation and energy structure improvement, but a negative impact on economy. (2) As for auction forms, the uniform-price design is relatively moderate, while the discriminative-price design is quite aggressive in both economic damage and emissions reduction. (3) As for carbon price, the uniform-price auction might generate a slightly higher market clearing price than the discriminative-price auction, and the prices under two auction rules fluctuate about RMB 40 per metric ton. (4) As for carbon cap, the total allowances in the carbon auction market should be carefully set to well balance economic growth and mitigation effect. - Highlights: • A multi-agent-based model is proposed for China's emissions trading scheme (ETS). • Two main economic agents are included: government and firms in different sectors. • Auction-based allocation for initial carbon allowances is especially investigated. • Economic and environmental impacts of different auction designs are analyzed. • Results confirm the validity of the model and give helpful insights into ETS design.

  13. The Evolution of Cooperation in Managed Groundwater Systems: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla Rho, J. C.; Mariethoz, G.; Rojas, R. F.; Andersen, M. S.; Kelly, B. F.; Holley, C.

    2014-12-01

    Human interactions with groundwater systems often exhibit complex features that hinder the sustainable management of the resource. This leads to costly and persistent conflicts over groundwater at the catchment scale. One possible way to address these conflicts is by gaining a better understanding of how social and groundwater dynamics coevolve using agent-based models (ABM). Such models allow exploring 'bottom-up' solutions (i.e., self-organised governance systems), where the behaviour of individual agents (e.g., farmers) results in the emergence of mutual cooperation among groundwater users. There is significant empirical evidence indicating that this kind of 'bottom-up' approach may lead to more enduring and sustainable outcomes, compared to conventional 'top-down' strategies such as centralized control and water right schemes (Ostrom 1990). New modelling tools are needed to study these concepts systematically and efficiently. Our model uses a conceptual framework to study cooperation and the emergence of social norms as initially proposed by Axelrod (1986), which we adapted to groundwater management. We developed an ABM that integrates social mechanisms and the physics of subsurface flow. The model explicitly represents feedback between groundwater conditions and social dynamics, capturing the spatial structure of these interactions and the potential effects on cooperation levels in an agricultural setting. Using this model, we investigate a series of mechanisms that may trigger norms supporting cooperative strategies, which can be sustained and become stable over time. For example, farmers in a self-monitoring community can be more efficient at achieving the objective of sustainable groundwater use than government-imposed regulation. Our coupled model thus offers a platform for testing new schemes promoting cooperation and improved resource use, which can be used as a basis for policy design. Importantly, we hope to raise awareness of agent-based modelling as

  14. Application of agent-based system for bioprocess description and process improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ying; Kipling, Katie; Glassey, Jarka; Willis, Mark; Montague, Gary; Zhou, Yuhong; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J

    2010-01-01

    Modeling plays an important role in bioprocess development for design and scale-up. Predictive models can also be used in biopharmaceutical manufacturing to assist decision-making either to maintain process consistency or to identify optimal operating conditions. To predict the whole bioprocess performance, the strong interactions present in a processing sequence must be adequately modeled. Traditionally, bioprocess modeling considers process units separately, which makes it difficult to capture the interactions between units. In this work, a systematic framework is developed to analyze the bioprocesses based on a whole process understanding and considering the interactions between process operations. An agent-based approach is adopted to provide a flexible infrastructure for the necessary integration of process models. This enables the prediction of overall process behavior, which can then be applied during process development or once manufacturing has commenced, in both cases leading to the capacity for fast evaluation of process improvement options. The multi-agent system comprises a process knowledge base, process models, and a group of functional agents. In this system, agent components co-operate with each other in performing their tasks. These include the description of the whole process behavior, evaluating process operating conditions, monitoring of the operating processes, predicting critical process performance, and providing guidance to decision-making when coping with process deviations. During process development, the system can be used to evaluate the design space for process operation. During manufacture, the system can be applied to identify abnormal process operation events and then to provide suggestions as to how best to cope with the deviations. In all cases, the function of the system is to ensure an efficient manufacturing process. The implementation of the agent-based approach is illustrated via selected application scenarios, which

  15. Agent-based reactive power management of power distribution networks with distributed energy generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, M.S.; Mahmud, M.A.; Oo, A.M.T.; Pota, H.R.; Hossain, M.J.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A coordinated multi-agent system is proposed for reactive power management. • A linear quadratic regulator with a proportional integral controller is designed. • Proposed multi-agent scheme provides accurate estimation and control of the system. • Voltage stability is improved with proper power management for different scenarios. • Results obtained from the proposed scheme is compared to the traditional approach. - Abstract: In this paper, a new agent-based distributed reactive power management scheme is proposed to improve the voltage stability of energy distribution systems with distributed generation units. Three types of agents – distribution system agent, estimator agent, and control agent are developed within the multi-agent framework. The agents simultaneously coordinated their activities through the online information and energy flow. The overall achievement of the proposed scheme depends on the coordination between two tasks – (i) estimation of reactive power using voltage variation formula and (ii) necessary control actions to provide the estimated reactive power to the distribution networks through the distributed static synchronous compensators. A linear quadratic regulator with a proportional integrator is designed for the control agent in order to control the reactive component of the current and the DC voltage of the compensators. The performance of the proposed scheme is tested on a 10-bus power distribution network under various scenarios. The effectiveness is validated by comparing the proposed approach to the conventional proportional integral control approach. It is found that, the agent-based scheme provides excellent robust performance under various operating conditions of the power distribution network.

  16. Agent-based modeling of endotoxin-induced acute inflammatory response in human blood leukocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Xu; Foteinou, Panagiota T; Calvano, Steven E; Lowry, Stephen F; Androulakis, Ioannis P

    2010-02-18

    Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions. An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades. The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve

  17. Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

    2014-09-01

    Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

  18. An agent-based simulation model to study accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pai; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-03-01

    Creating accountable care organizations (ACOs) has been widely discussed as a strategy to control rapidly rising healthcare costs and improve quality of care; however, building an effective ACO is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders (payers, providers, patients) with their own interests. Also, implementation of an ACO is costly in terms of time and money. Immature design could cause safety hazards. Therefore, there is a need for analytical model-based decision-support tools that can predict the outcomes of different strategies to facilitate ACO design and implementation. In this study, an agent-based simulation model was developed to study ACOs that considers payers, healthcare providers, and patients as agents under the shared saving payment model of care for congestive heart failure (CHF), one of the most expensive causes of sometimes preventable hospitalizations. The agent-based simulation model has identified the critical determinants for the payment model design that can motivate provider behavior changes to achieve maximum financial and quality outcomes of an ACO. The results show nonlinear provider behavior change patterns corresponding to changes in payment model designs. The outcomes vary by providers with different quality or financial priorities, and are most sensitive to the cost-effectiveness of CHF interventions that an ACO implements. This study demonstrates an increasingly important method to construct a healthcare system analytics model that can help inform health policy and healthcare management decisions. The study also points out that the likely success of an ACO is interdependent with payment model design, provider characteristics, and cost and effectiveness of healthcare interventions.

  19. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  20. Agent-Based Modeling of Taxi Behavior Simulation with Probe Vehicle Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurav Ranjit

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Taxi behavior is a spatial–temporal dynamic process involving discrete time dependent events, such as customer pick-up, customer drop-off, cruising, and parking. Simulation models, which are a simplification of a real-world system, can help understand the effects of change of such dynamic behavior. In this paper, agent-based modeling and simulation is proposed, that describes the dynamic action of an agent, i.e., taxi, governed by behavior rules and properties, which emulate the taxi behavior. Taxi behavior simulations are fundamentally done for optimizing the service level for both taxi drivers as well as passengers. Moreover, simulation techniques, as such, could be applied to another field of application as well, where obtaining real raw data are somewhat difficult due to privacy issues, such as human mobility data or call detail record data. This paper describes the development of an agent-based simulation model which is based on multiple input parameters (taxi stay point cluster; trip information (origin and destination; taxi demand information; free taxi movement; and network travel time that were derived from taxi probe GPS data. As such, agent’s parameters were mapped into grid network, and the road network, for which the grid network was used as a base for query/search/retrieval of taxi agent’s parameters, while the actual movement of taxi agents was on the road network with routing and interpolation. The results obtained from the simulated taxi agent data and real taxi data showed a significant level of similarity of different taxi behavior, such as trip generation; trip time; trip distance as well as trip occupancy, based on its distribution. As for efficient data handling, a distributed computing platform for large-scale data was used for extracting taxi agent parameter from the probe data by utilizing both spatial and non-spatial indexing technique.

  1. Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Tan, Lei

    2013-01-01

    For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the determination of the key parameters can be applied to other complex

  2. Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Jie Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For complex financial systems, the negative and positive return-volatility correlations, i.e., the so-called leverage and anti-leverage effects, are particularly important for the understanding of the price dynamics. However, the microscopic origination of the leverage and anti-leverage effects is still not understood, and how to produce these effects in agent-based modeling remains open. On the other hand, in constructing microscopic models, it is a promising conception to determine model parameters from empirical data rather than from statistical fitting of the results. METHODS: To study the microscopic origination of the return-volatility correlation in financial systems, we take into account the individual and collective behaviors of investors in real markets, and construct an agent-based model. The agents are linked with each other and trade in groups, and particularly, two novel microscopic mechanisms, i.e., investors' asymmetric trading and herding in bull and bear markets, are introduced. Further, we propose effective methods to determine the key parameters in our model from historical market data. RESULTS: With the model parameters determined for six representative stock-market indices in the world, respectively, we obtain the corresponding leverage or anti-leverage effect from the simulation, and the effect is in agreement with the empirical one on amplitude and duration. At the same time, our model produces other features of the real markets, such as the fat-tail distribution of returns and the long-term correlation of volatilities. CONCLUSIONS: We reveal that for the leverage and anti-leverage effects, both the investors' asymmetric trading and herding are essential generation mechanisms. Among the six markets, however, the investors' trading is approximately symmetric for the five markets which exhibit the leverage effect, thus contributing very little. These two microscopic mechanisms and the methods for the

  3. Aligning the Economic Value of Companion Diagnostics and Stratified Medicines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward D. Blair

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The twin forces of payors seeking fair pricing and the rising costs of developing new medicines has driven a closer relationship between pharmaceutical companies and diagnostics companies, because stratified medicines, guided by companion diagnostics, offer better commercial, as well as clinical, outcomes. Stratified medicines have created clinical success and provided rapid product approvals, particularly in oncology, and indeed have changed the dynamic between drug and diagnostic developers. The commercial payback for such partnerships offered by stratified medicines has been less well articulated, but this has shifted as the benefits in risk management, pricing and value creation for all stakeholders become clearer. In this larger healthcare setting, stratified medicine provides both physicians and patients with greater insight on the disease and provides rationale for providers to understand cost-effectiveness of treatment. This article considers how the economic value of stratified medicine relationships can be recognized and translated into better outcomes for all healthcare stakeholders.

  4. The Knowledge Economy, Gender and Stratified Migrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonore Kofman

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The promotion of knowledge economies and societies, equated with the mobile subject as bearer of technological, managerial and cosmopolitan competences, on the one hand, and insecurities about social order and national identities, on the other, have in the past few years led to increasing polarisation between skilled migrants and those deemed to lack useful skills. The former are considered to be bearers of human capital and have the capacity to assimilate seamlessly and are therefore worthy of citizenship; the latter are likely to pose problems of assimilation and dependency due to their economic and cultural ‘otherness’ and offered a transient status and partial citizenship by receiving states. In the European context this trend has been reinforced by the redrawing of European geopolitical space creating new boundaries of exclusion and social justice. The emphasis on the knowledge economy also generates gender inequalities and stratifications based on skills and types of knowledge with implications for citizenship and social justice.

  5. The Knowledge Economy, Gender and Stratified Migrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonore Kofman

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The promotion of knowledge economies and societies, equated with the mobile subject as bearer of technological, managerial and cosmopolitan competences, on the one hand, and insecurities about social order and national identities, on the other, have in the past few years led to increasing polarisation between skilled migrants and those deemed to lack useful skills. The former are considered to be bearers of human capital and have the capacity to assimilate seamlessly and are therefore worthy of citizenship; the latter are likely to pose problems of assimilation and dependency due to their economic and cultural ‘otherness’ and offered a transient status and partial citizenship by receiving states. In the European context this trend has been reinforced by the redrawing of European geopolitical space creating new boundaries of exclusion and social justice. The emphasis on the knowledge economy also generates gender inequalities and stratifications based on skills and types of knowledge with implications for citizenship and social justice.

  6. Evaluation of wholesale electric power market rules and financial risk management by agent-based simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Nanpeng

    As U.S. regional electricity markets continue to refine their market structures, designs and rules of operation in various ways, two critical issues are emerging. First, although much experience has been gained and costly and valuable lessons have been learned, there is still a lack of a systematic platform for evaluation of the impact of a new market design from both engineering and economic points of view. Second, the transition from a monopoly paradigm characterized by a guaranteed rate of return to a competitive market created various unfamiliar financial risks for various market participants, especially for the Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This dissertation uses agent-based simulation methods to tackle the market rules evaluation and financial risk management problems. The California energy crisis in 2000-01 showed what could happen to an electricity market if it did not go through a comprehensive and rigorous testing before its implementation. Due to the complexity of the market structure, strategic interaction between the participants, and the underlying physics, it is difficult to fully evaluate the implications of potential changes to market rules. This dissertation presents a flexible and integrative method to assess market designs through agent-based simulations. Realistic simulation scenarios on a 225-bus system are constructed for evaluation of the proposed PJM-like market power mitigation rules of the California electricity market. Simulation results show that in the absence of market power mitigation, generation company (GenCo) agents facilitated by Q-learning are able to exploit the market flaws and make significantly higher profits relative to the competitive benchmark. The incorporation of PJM-like local market power mitigation rules is shown to be effective in suppressing the exercise of market power. The importance of financial risk management is exemplified by the recent financial crisis. In this

  7. AJAN TABANLI MODELLEME VE HESAPLAMALI İKTİSAT - AGENT-BASED MODELLING AND COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emrah KELEŞ

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available ÖzetRasyonellik ve homojenlik varsayımları ile iktisadi ajanlar arasındaki etkileşimi göz ardı eden temsiliajan yaklaşımı, dinamik stokastik genel denge modellerine dayanan yerleşik iktisada duyulan güveninazalmasına yol açmıştır. 1990’ların sonlarından itibaren ajan tabanlı hesaplamalı yaklaşım finansal iktisat,endüstriyel organizasyon, makro iktisat, politik iktisat ve iktiadi ağ oluşumu başta olmak üzere sosyalbilimlerde yaygınlaşmaya başlamıştır. Son olarak 2008 küresel finansal kriz yerleşik, iktisadın dahayüksek sesle tartışılmasına ve ajan tabanlı yaklaşımın daha çok benimsenmesine neden olmuştur. Bu yeniyaklaşım araştırmacılara pasif haldeki fiziksel varlıklardan durumları, inanışları ve davranış kuralları olanaktif karar alıcılara kadar çeşitli ajanların bulunduğu yapay bir dünya kurmalarına imkân vermektedir.Bu yapay dünyalarda ajanların birbirleriyle ya da çevreleriyle etkileşimi onların adaptif (uyarlanabilirolmasına ve kompleks adaptif bir sistem meydana getirmelerine izin vermektedir. Bu çalışmada, ajantabanlı yaklaşımın temel unsurlarının incelenmesi ve DSGE modellerine göre üstünlüklerinin gösterilmesiamaçlanmıştır.AbstractAssumptions of rationality and homogeneity, and framework of representative agent that rule out interactionsbetween agents have led to a decline in confidence to mainstream economics based on dynamicstochastic equilibrium models. Starting from late 1990s, agent-based computational approach has becomeincreasingly popular in social sciences, especially in financial economics, industrial organization, macroeconomics,political economy, and economic network formation. Finally, 2008 global financial crisis hascaused mainstream to be argued loudly and agent-based approach to be adopted more. This new approachenables researchers to construct artificial worlds where various agents ranging from passive entities to active

  8. AJAN TABANLI MODELLEME VE HESAPLAMALI İKTİSAT - AGENT-BASED MODELLING AND COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emrah KELEŞ

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available ÖzetRasyonellik ve homojenlik varsayımları ile iktisadi ajanlar arasındaki etkileşimi göz ardı eden temsiliajan yaklaşımı, dinamik stokastik genel denge modellerine dayanan yerleşik iktisada duyulan güveninazalmasına yol açmıştır. 1990’ların sonlarından itibaren ajan tabanlı hesaplamalı yaklaşım finansal iktisat,endüstriyel organizasyon, makro iktisat, politik iktisat ve iktiadi ağ oluşumu başta olmak üzere sosyalbilimlerde yaygınlaşmaya başlamıştır. Son olarak 2008 küresel finansal kriz yerleşik, iktisadın dahayüksek sesle tartışılmasına ve ajan tabanlı yaklaşımın daha çok benimsenmesine neden olmuştur. Bu yeniyaklaşım araştırmacılara pasif haldeki fiziksel varlıklardan durumları, inanışları ve davranış kuralları olanaktif karar alıcılara kadar çeşitli ajanların bulunduğu yapay bir dünya kurmalarına imkân vermektedir.Bu yapay dünyalarda ajanların birbirleriyle ya da çevreleriyle etkileşimi onların adaptif (uyarlanabilirolmasına ve kompleks adaptif bir sistem meydana getirmelerine izin vermektedir. Bu çalışmada, ajantabanlı yaklaşımın temel unsurlarının incelenmesi ve DSGE modellerine göre üstünlüklerinin gösterilmesiamaçlanmıştır.AbstractAssumptions of rationality and homogeneity, and framework of representative agent that rule out interactionsbetween agents have led to a decline in confidence to mainstream economics based on dynamicstochastic equilibrium models. Starting from late 1990s, agent-based computational approach has becomeincreasingly popular in social sciences, especially in financial economics, industrial organization, macroeconomics,political economy, and economic network formation. Finally, 2008 global financial crisis hascaused mainstream to be argued loudly and agent-based approach to be adopted more. This new approachenables researchers to construct artificial worlds where various agents ranging from passive entities to active

  9. Stratified prevention: opportunities and limitations. Report on the 1st interdisciplinary cardiovascular workshop in Augsburg.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhof, Gregor; Lindner, Josef Franz; Achenbach, Stephan; Berger, Klaus; Blankenberg, Stefan; Fangerau, Heiner; Gimpel, Henner; Gassner, Ulrich M; Kersten, Jens; Magnus, Dorothea; Rebscher, Herbert; Schunkert, Heribert; Rixen, Stephan; Kirchhof, Paulus

    2018-03-01

    Sufficient exercise and sleep, a balanced diet, moderate alcohol consumption and a good approach to handle stress have been known as lifestyles that protect health and longevity since the Middle Age. This traditional prevention quintet, turned into a sextet by smoking cessation, has been the basis of the "preventive personality" that formed in the twentieth century. Recent analyses of big data sets including genomic and physiological measurements have unleashed novel opportunities to estimate individual health risks with unprecedented accuracy, allowing to target preventive interventions to persons at high risk and at the same time to spare those in whom preventive measures may not be needed or even be harmful. To fully grasp these opportunities for modern preventive medicine, the established healthy life styles require supplementation by stratified prevention. The opportunities of these developments for life and health contrast with justified concerns: A "surveillance society", able to predict individual behaviour based on big data, threatens individual freedom and jeopardises equality. Social insurance law and the new German Disease Prevention Act (Präventionsgesetz) rightly stress the need for research to underpin stratified prevention which is accessible to all, ethical, effective, and evidence based. An ethical and acceptable development of stratified prevention needs to start with autonomous individuals who control and understand all information pertaining to their health. This creates a mandate for lifelong health education, enabled in an individualised form by digital technology. Stratified prevention furthermore requires the evidence-based development of a new taxonomy of cardiovascular diseases that reflects disease mechanisms. Such interdisciplinary research needs broad support from society and a better use of biosamples and data sets within an updated research governance framework.

  10. Agent-based modeling of autophagy reveals emergent regulatory behavior of spatio-temporal autophagy dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börlin, Christoph S; Lang, Verena; Hamacher-Brady, Anne; Brady, Nathan R

    2014-09-10

    Autophagy is a vesicle-mediated pathway for lysosomal degradation, essential under basal and stressed conditions. Various cellular components, including specific proteins, protein aggregates, organelles and intracellular pathogens, are targets for autophagic degradation. Thereby, autophagy controls numerous vital physiological and pathophysiological functions, including cell signaling, differentiation, turnover of cellular components and pathogen defense. Moreover, autophagy enables the cell to recycle cellular components to metabolic substrates, thereby permitting prolonged survival under low nutrient conditions. Due to the multi-faceted roles for autophagy in maintaining cellular and organismal homeostasis and responding to diverse stresses, malfunction of autophagy contributes to both chronic and acute pathologies. We applied a systems biology approach to improve the understanding of this complex cellular process of autophagy. All autophagy pathway vesicle activities, i.e. creation, movement, fusion and degradation, are highly dynamic, temporally and spatially, and under various forms of regulation. We therefore developed an agent-based model (ABM) to represent individual components of the autophagy pathway, subcellular vesicle dynamics and metabolic feedback with the cellular environment, thereby providing a framework to investigate spatio-temporal aspects of autophagy regulation and dynamic behavior. The rules defining our ABM were derived from literature and from high-resolution images of autophagy markers under basal and activated conditions. Key model parameters were fit with an iterative method using a genetic algorithm and a predefined fitness function. From this approach, we found that accurate prediction of spatio-temporal behavior required increasing model complexity by implementing functional integration of autophagy with the cellular nutrient state. The resulting model is able to reproduce short-term autophagic flux measurements (up to 3

  11. Evolutionary Agent-based Models to design distributed water management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing awareness in the scientific community that the traditional centralized approach to water resources management, as described in much of the water resources literature, provides an ideal optimal solution, which is certainly useful to quantify the best physically achievable performance, but is generally inapplicable. Most real world water resources management problems are indeed characterized by the presence of multiple, distributed and institutionally-independent decision-makers. Multi-Agent Systems provide a potentially more realistic alternative framework to model multiple and self-interested decision-makers in a credible context. Each decision-maker can be represented by an agent who, being self-interested, acts according to local objective functions and produces negative externalities on system level objectives. Different levels of coordination can potentially be included in the framework by designing coordination mechanisms to drive the current decision-making structure toward the global system efficiency. Yet, the identification of effective coordination strategies can be particularly complex in modern institutional contexts and current practice is dependent on largely ad-hoc coordination strategies. In this work we propose a novel Evolutionary Agent-based Modeling (EAM) framework that enables a mapping of fully uncoordinated and centrally coordinated solutions into their relative "many-objective" tradeoffs using multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. Then, by analysing the conflicts between local individual agent and global system level objectives it is possible to more fully understand the causes, consequences, and potential solution strategies for coordination failures. Game-theoretic criteria have value for identifying the most interesting alternatives from a policy making point of view as well as the coordination mechanisms that can be applied to obtain these interesting solutions. The proposed approach is numerically tested on a

  12. Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

    2012-11-01

    We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative

  13. An agent based architecture for high-risk neonate management at neonatal intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malak, Jaleh Shoshtarian; Safdari, Reza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Nayeri, Fatemeh Sadat; Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Farajollah, Seide Sedighe Seied

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, the use of new tools and technologies has decreased the neonatal mortality rate. Despite the positive effect of using these technologies, the decisions are complex and uncertain in critical conditions when the neonate is preterm or has a low birth weight or malformations. There is a need to automate the high-risk neonate management process by creating real-time and more precise decision support tools. To create a collaborative and real-time environment to manage neonates with critical conditions at the NICU (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit) and to overcome high-risk neonate management weaknesses by applying a multi agent based analysis and design methodology as a new solution for NICU management. This study was a basic research for medical informatics method development that was carried out in 2017. The requirement analysis was done by reviewing articles on NICU Decision Support Systems. PubMed, Science Direct, and IEEE databases were searched. Only English articles published after 1990 were included; also, a needs assessment was done by reviewing the extracted features and current processes at the NICU environment where the research was conducted. We analyzed the requirements and identified the main system roles (agents) and interactions by a comparative study of existing NICU decision support systems. The Universal Multi Agent Platform (UMAP) was applied to implement a prototype of our multi agent based high-risk neonate management architecture. Local environment agents interacted inside a container and each container interacted with external resources, including other NICU systems and consultation centers. In the NICU container, the main identified agents were reception, monitoring, NICU registry, and outcome prediction, which interacted with human agents including nurses and physicians. Managing patients at the NICU units requires online data collection, real-time collaboration, and management of many components. Multi agent systems are applied as

  14. An Agent-based Manufacturing Management System for Production and Logistics within Cross-Company Regional and National Production Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Hanel

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The goal is the development of a simultaneous, dynamic, technological as well as logistical real-time planning and an organizational control of the production by the production units themselves, working in the production network under the use of Multi-Agent-Technology. The design of the multi-agent-based manufacturing management system, the models of the single agents, algorithms for the agent-based, decentralized dispatching of orders, strategies and data management concepts as well as their integration into the SCM, basing on the solution described, will be explained in the following.

  15. An Agent-Based Manufacturing Management System for Production and Logistics within Cross-Company Regional and National Production Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Heinrich

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available The goal is the development of a simultaneous, dynamic, technological as well as logistical real-time planning and an organizational control of the production by the production units themselves, working in the production network under the use of Multi-Agent-Technology. The design of the multi-agent-based manufacturing management system, the models of the single agents, algorithms for the agent-based, decentralized dispatching of orders, strategies and data management concepts as well as their integration into the SCM, basing on the solution described, will be explained in the following.

  16. Novel Agent Based-approach for Industrial Diagnosis: A Combined use Between Case-based Reasoning and Similarity Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatima Zohra Benkaddour

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In spunlace nonwovens industry, the maintenance task is very complex, it requires experts and operators collaboration. In this paper, we propose a new approach integrating an agent- based modelling with case-based reasoning that utilizes similarity measures and preferences module. The main purpose of our study is to compare and evaluate the most suitable similarity measure for our case. Furthermore, operators that are usually geographically dispersed, have to collaborate and negotiate to achieve mutual agreements, especially when their proposals (diagnosis lead to a conflicting situation. The experimentation shows that the suggested agent-based approach is very interesting and efficient for operators and experts who collaborate in INOTIS enterprise.

  17. The stratified H-index makes scientific impact transparent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Würtz, Morten; Schmidt, Morten

    2017-01-01

    The H-index is widely used to quantify and standardize researchers' scientific impact. However, the H-index does not account for the fact that co-authors rarely contribute equally to a paper. Accordingly, we propose the use of a stratified H-index to measure scientific impact. The stratified H......-index supplements the conventional H-index with three separate H-indices: one for first authorships, one for second authorships and one for last authorships. The stratified H-index takes scientific output, quality and individual author contribution into account....

  18. Use of agent-based modelling in emergency management under a range of flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tagg Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Life Safety Model (LSM was developed some 15 years ago, originally for dam break assessments and for informing reservoir evacuation and emergency plans. Alongside other technological developments, the model has evolved into a very useful agent-based tool, with many applications for a range of hazards and receptor behaviour. HR Wallingford became involved in its use in 2006, and is now responsible for its technical development and commercialisation. Over the past 10 years the model has been applied to a range of flood hazards, including coastal surge, river flood, dam failure and tsunami, and has been verified against historical events. Commercial software licences are being used in Canada, Italy, Malaysia and Australia. A core group of LSM users and analysts has been specifying and delivering a programme of model enhancements. These include improvements to traffic behaviour at intersections, new algorithms for sheltering in high-rise buildings, and the addition of monitoring points to allow detailed analysis of vehicle and pedestrian movement. Following user feedback, the ability of LSM to handle large model ‘worlds’ and hydrodynamic meshes has been improved. Recent developments include new documentation, performance enhancements, better logging of run-time events and bug fixes. This paper describes some of the recent developments and summarises some of the case study applications, including dam failure analysis in Japan and mass evacuation simulation in England.

  19. Minimal agent based model for financial markets II. Statistical properties of the linear and multiplicative dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

  20. Agent-Based Crowd Simulation Considering Emotion Contagion for Emergency Evacuation Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faroqi, H.; Mesgari, M.-S.

    2015-12-01

    During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  1. AGENT-BASED CROWD SIMULATION CONSIDERING EMOTION CONTAGION FOR EMERGENCY EVACUATION PROBLEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Faroqi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available During emergencies, emotions greatly affect human behaviour. For more realistic multi-agent systems in simulations of emergency evacuations, it is important to incorporate emotions and their effects on the agents. In few words, emotional contagion is a process in which a person or group influences the emotions or behavior of another person or group through the conscious or unconscious induction of emotion states and behavioral attitudes. In this study, we simulate an emergency situation in an open square area with three exits considering Adults and Children agents with different behavior. Also, Security agents are considered in order to guide Adults and Children for finding the exits and be calm. Six levels of emotion levels are considered for each agent in different scenarios and situations. The agent-based simulated model initialize with the random scattering of agent populations and then when an alarm occurs, each agent react to the situation based on its and neighbors current circumstances. The main goal of each agent is firstly to find the exit, and then help other agents to find their ways. Numbers of exited agents along with their emotion levels and damaged agents are compared in different scenarios with different initialization in order to evaluate the achieved results of the simulated model. NetLogo 5.2 is used as the multi-agent simulation framework with R language as the developing language.

  2. iMuseumA: An Agent-Based Context-Aware Intelligent Museum System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Ayala

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Currently, museums provide their visitors with interactive tour guide applications that can be installed in mobile devices and provide timely tailor-made multimedia information about exhibits on display. In this paper, we argue that mobile devices not only could provide help to visitors, but also to museum staff. Our goal is to integrate, within the same system, multimedia tour guides with the management facilities required by museums. In this paper, we present iMuseumA (intelligent museum with agents, a mobile-based solution to customize visits and perform context-aware management tasks. iMuseumA follows an agent-based approach, which makes it possible to interact easily with the museum environment and make decisions based on its current status. This system is currently deployed in the Museum of Informatics at the Informatics School of the University of Málaga, and its main contributions are: (i a mobile application that provides management facilities to museum staff by means of sensing and processing environmental data; (ii providing an integrated solution for visitors, tour guides and museum staff that allows coordination and communication enrichment among different groups of users; (iii using and benefiting from group communication for heterogeneous groups of users that can be created on demand.

  3. An Agent-Based Solution Framework for Inter-Block Yard Crane Scheduling Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omor Sharif

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency of yard operations is critical to the overall productivity of a container terminal because the yard serves as the interface between the landside and waterside operations. Most container terminals use yard cranes to transfer containers between the yard and trucks (both external and internal. To facilitate vessel operations, an efficient work schedule for the yard cranes is necessary given varying work volumes among yard blocks with different planning periods. This paper investigated an agent-based approach to assign and relocate yard cranes among yard blocks based on the forecasted work volumes. The goal of our study is to reduce the work volume that remains incomplete at the end of a planning period. We offered several preference functions for yard cranes and blocks which are modeled as agents. These preference functions are designed to find effective schedules for yard cranes. In addition, we examined various rules for the initial assignment of yard cranes to blocks. Our analysis demonstrated that our model can effectively and efficiently reduce the percentage of incomplete work volume for any real-world sized problem.

  4. Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Dominic D. P.; Weidmann, Nils B.; Cederman, Lars-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today. PMID:21731627

  5. Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-06-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

  6. Physics and financial economics (1776–2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-01-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets. (key issues reviews)

  7. Buying on margin, selling short in an agent-based market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ting; Li, Honggang

    2013-09-01

    Credit trading, or leverage trading, which includes buying on margin and selling short, plays an important role in financial markets, where agents tend to increase their leverages for increased profits. This paper presents an agent-based asset market model to study the effect of the permissive leverage level on traders’ wealth and overall market indicators. In this model, heterogeneous agents can assume fundamental value-converging expectations or trend-persistence expectations, and their effective demands of assets depend both on demand willingness and wealth constraints, where leverage can relieve the wealth constraints to some extent. The asset market price is determined by a market maker, who watches the market excess demand, and is influenced by noise factors. By simulations, we examine market results for different leverage ratios. At the individual level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences agents’ wealth accumulation. At the market level, we focus on how the leverage ratio influences changes in the asset price, volatility, and trading volume. Qualitatively, our model provides some meaningful results supported by empirical facts. More importantly, we find a continuous phase transition as we increase the leverage threshold, which may provide a further prospective of credit trading.

  8. Agent-Based Simulation of Children’s School Travel Mode with Parental Escort Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Jing

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, the number of private cars has expanding quickly in China, more and more parents use cars to escort their children to school, thus cause serious traffic congestions near school in many cities. In this paper, we developed an agent-based model (ABM of the parents’ choice of escort mode. The core of this model is an escort mode choice motivation adjustment function that combines distance, traffic safety and social influence. We also used ABM to exhibit the emergent decoy effect phenomenon, which is a dynamic phenomenon that the introduction of a decoy to the choice-set could increase the share of other alternatives. The model reveals the parents’ inner psychological mechanism when facing competing escort mode choice in transportation system. The simulation results show that the proportion of parents to choose bus escort was 62.45% without the decoy effect was introduced, while the proportion of parents to choose bus escort increased to 74.29% with the decoy effect was entry. The use of the ABM method gives the potential to cope with the dynamic changes in studying parent escort mode choice behavior.

  9. Analysis of Customer Behaviour and Online Retailers Strategies Using the Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sava Čavoški

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of ABMS – agent-based modelling and simulation in the analysis of customer behaviour on B2C e-commerce websites as well as in the analysis of various business decisions upon the effects of on-line sales. By linking the areas of modelling based on agents and electronic commerce, this paper addresses the new opportunities for a quality assessment of consumer behaviour and reasons explaining this behaviour in e-commerce. The interactions of agents that make up this model are sublimated in the utility function that provides the basis for decision-making in the model. The rules of behaviour and interactions, included in the model through the utility function, denote the complexity of the decision-making process which occurs in evaluation and purchase of products in the part of B2C e-commerce. The simulation model implemented in the software NetLogo enables the monitoring of all interactions between the consumers (ConsumerAgents, seller-Internet sites (SellerAgents and advertisement agents (BannerAgents by generating the indicators of B2C site business performance.

  10. A Secured Cognitive Agent based Multi-strategic Intelligent Search System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neha Gulati

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Search Engine (SE is the most preferred information retrieval tool ubiquitously used. In spite of vast scale involvement of users in SE’s, their limited capabilities to understand the user/searcher context and emotions places high cognitive, perceptual and learning load on the user to maintain the search momentum. In this regard, the present work discusses a Cognitive Agent (CA based approach to support the user in Web-based search process. The work suggests a framework called Secured Cognitive Agent based Multi-strategic Intelligent Search System (CAbMsISS to assist the user in search process. It helps to reduce the contextual and emotional mismatch between the SE’s and user. After implementation of the proposed framework, performance analysis shows that CAbMsISS framework improves Query Retrieval Time (QRT and effectiveness for retrieving relevant results as compared to Present Search Engine (PSE. Supplementary to this, it also provides search suggestions when user accesses a resource previously tagged with negative emotions. Overall, the goal of the system is to enhance the search experience for keeping the user motivated. The framework provides suggestions through the search log that tracks the queries searched, resources accessed and emotions experienced during the search. The implemented framework also considers user security. Keywords: BDI model, Cognitive Agent, Emotion, Information retrieval, Intelligent search, Search Engine

  11. Surface water flood risk and management strategies for London: An Agent-Based Model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenkins Katie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is recognised as one of the most common and costliest natural disasters in England. Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall is known as ‘surface water flooding’, considered to be the most likely cause of flood events and one of the greatest short-term climate risks for London. In this paper we present results from a novel Agent-Based Model designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options, different agents, and the role of flood insurance and the flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The model illustrates how investment in adaptation options could reduce London’s surface water flood risk, today and in the future. However, benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, it offers no additional benefits in terms of overall risk reduction, and will face increasing pressure due to rising surface water flood risk in the future. The modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for reviewing the proposed Flood Re scheme, as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes, and broader multi-sectoral partnerships, to incentivise flood risk management in the UK and internationally.

  12. Policy design and performance of emissions trading markets: an adaptive agent-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, Zhang; Qinqin, Yu; Jun, Bi

    2010-08-01

    Emissions trading is considered to be a cost-effective environmental economic instrument for pollution control. However, the pilot emissions trading programs in China have failed to bring remarkable success in the campaign for pollution control. The policy design of an emissions trading program is found to have a decisive impact on its performance. In this study, an artificial market for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions trading applying the agent-based model was constructed. The performance of the Jiangsu SO2 emissions trading market under different policy design scenario was also examined. Results show that the market efficiency of emissions trading is significantly affected by policy design and existing policies. China's coal-electricity price system is the principal factor influencing the performance of the SO2 emissions trading market. Transaction costs would also reduce market efficiency. In addition, current-level emissions discharge fee/tax and banking mechanisms do not distinctly affect policy performance. Thus, applying emissions trading in emission control in China should consider policy design and interaction with other existing policies.

  13. SIMULATING AN EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana MARICA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on artificial stock market simulations using a multi-agent model incorporating 2,000 heterogeneous agents interacting on the artificial market. The agents interaction is due to trading activity on the market through a call auction trading mechanism. The multi-agent model uses evolutionary techniques such as genetic programming in order to generate an adaptive and evolving population of agents. Each artificial agent is endowed with wealth and a genetic programming induced trading strategy. The trading strategy evolves and adapts to the new market conditions through a process called breeding, which implies that at each simulation step, new agents with better trading strategies are generated by the model, from recombining the best performing trading strategies and replacing the agents which have the worst performing trading strategies. The simulation model was build with the help of the simulation software Altreva Adaptive Modeler which offers a suitable platform for financial market simulations of evolutionary agent based models, the S&P500 composite index being used as a benchmark for the simulation results.

  14. Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

    2013-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states. (paper)

  15. EvoBuild: A Quickstart Toolkit for Programming Agent-Based Models of Evolutionary Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagh, Aditi; Wilensky, Uri

    2018-04-01

    Extensive research has shown that one of the benefits of programming to learn about scientific phenomena is that it facilitates learning about mechanisms underlying the phenomenon. However, using programming activities in classrooms is associated with costs such as requiring additional time to learn to program or students needing prior experience with programming. This paper presents a class of programming environments that we call quickstart: Environments with a negligible threshold for entry into programming and a modest ceiling. We posit that such environments can provide benefits of programming for learning without incurring associated costs for novice programmers. To make this claim, we present a design-based research study conducted to compare programming models of evolutionary processes with a quickstart toolkit with exploring pre-built models of the same processes. The study was conducted in six seventh grade science classes in two schools. Students in the programming condition used EvoBuild, a quickstart toolkit for programming agent-based models of evolutionary processes, to build their NetLogo models. Students in the exploration condition used pre-built NetLogo models. We demonstrate that although students came from a range of academic backgrounds without prior programming experience, and all students spent the same number of class periods on the activities including the time students took to learn programming in this environment, EvoBuild students showed greater learning about evolutionary mechanisms. We discuss the implications of this work for design research on programming environments in K-12 science education.

  16. An agent-based model of cellular dynamics and circadian variability in human endotoxemia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available As cellular variability and circadian rhythmicity play critical roles in immune and inflammatory responses, we present in this study an agent-based model of human endotoxemia to examine the interplay between circadian controls, cellular variability and stochastic dynamics of inflammatory cytokines. The model is qualitatively validated by its ability to reproduce circadian dynamics of inflammatory mediators and critical inflammatory responses after endotoxin administration in vivo. Novel computational concepts are proposed to characterize the cellular variability and synchronization of inflammatory cytokines in a population of heterogeneous leukocytes. Our results suggest that there is a decrease in cell-to-cell variability of inflammatory cytokines while their synchronization is increased after endotoxin challenge. Model parameters that are responsible for IκB production stimulated by NFκB activation and for the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines have large impacts on system behaviors. Additionally, examining time-dependent systemic responses revealed that the system is least vulnerable to endotoxin in the early morning and most vulnerable around midnight. Although much remains to be explored, proposed computational concepts and the model we have pioneered will provide important insights for future investigations and extensions, especially for single-cell studies to discover how cellular variability contributes to clinical implications.

  17. Agent-based organizational modelling for analysis of safety culture at an air navigation service provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Kirwan, Barry

    2011-01-01

    Assessment of safety culture is done predominantly by questionnaire-based studies, which tend to reveal attitudes on immaterial characteristics (values, beliefs, norms). There is a need for a better understanding of the implications of the material aspects of an organization (structures, processes, etc.) for safety culture and their interactions with the immaterial characteristics. This paper presents a new agent-based organizational modelling approach for integrated and systematic evaluation of material and immaterial characteristics of socio-technical organizations in safety culture analysis. It uniquely considers both the formal organization and the value- and belief-driven behaviour of individuals in the organization. Results are presented of a model for safety occurrence reporting at an air navigation service provider. Model predictions consistent with questionnaire-based results are achieved. A sensitivity analysis provides insight in organizational factors that strongly influence safety culture indicators. The modelling approach can be used in combination with attitude-focused safety culture research, towards an integrated evaluation of material and immaterial characteristics of socio-technical organizations. By using this approach an organization is able to gain a deeper understanding of causes of diverse problems and inefficiencies both in the formal organization and in the behaviour of organizational agents, and to systematically identify and evaluate improvement options.

  18. Agent-based simulation in management and organizational studies: a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Alfonso Gómez-Cruz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the literature about the use of agent-based simulation (ABS in the study of organizational behavior, decision making, and problem-solving. It aims at contributing to the consolidation of ABS as a field of applied research in management and organizational studies. Design/methodology/approach - The authors carried out a non-systematic search in literature published between 2000 and 2016, by using the keyword “agent-based” to search through Scopus’ business, management and accounting database. Additional search criteria were devised using the papers’ keywords and the categories defined by the divisions and interest groups of the Academy of Management. The authors found 181 articles for this survey. Findings - The survey shows that ABS provides a robust and rigorous framework to elaborate descriptions, explanations, predictions and theories about organizations and their processes as well as develop tools that support strategic and operational decision making and problem-solving. The authors show that the areas that report the highest number of applications are operations and logistics (37 percent, marketing (17 percent and organizational behavior (14 percent. Originality/value - The paper illustrates the increasingly prominent role of ABS in fields such as organizational behavior, strategy, human resources, marketing and logistics. To-date, this is the most complete survey about ABS in all management areas.

  19. Design of a Mobile Agent-Based Adaptive Communication Middleware for Federations of Critical Infrastructure Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Görbil, Gökçe; Gelenbe, Erol

    The simulation of critical infrastructures (CI) can involve the use of diverse domain specific simulators that run on geographically distant sites. These diverse simulators must then be coordinated to run concurrently in order to evaluate the performance of critical infrastructures which influence each other, especially in emergency or resource-critical situations. We therefore describe the design of an adaptive communication middleware that provides reliable and real-time one-to-one and group communications for federations of CI simulators over a wide-area network (WAN). The proposed middleware is composed of mobile agent-based peer-to-peer (P2P) overlays, called virtual networks (VNets), to enable resilient, adaptive and real-time communications over unreliable and dynamic physical networks (PNets). The autonomous software agents comprising the communication middleware monitor their performance and the underlying PNet, and dynamically adapt the P2P overlay and migrate over the PNet in order to optimize communications according to the requirements of the federation and the current conditions of the PNet. Reliable communications is provided via redundancy within the communication middleware and intelligent migration of agents over the PNet. The proposed middleware integrates security methods in order to protect the communication infrastructure against attacks and provide privacy and anonymity to the participants of the federation. Experiments with an initial version of the communication middleware over a real-life networking testbed show that promising improvements can be obtained for unicast and group communications via the agent migration capability of our middleware.

  20. Agent based models of language competition: macroscopic descriptions and order–disorder transitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vazquez, F; Castelló, X; San Miguel, M

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the dynamics of two agent based models of language competition. In the first model, each individual can be in one of two possible states, either using language X or language Y, while the second model incorporates a third state XY, representing individuals that use both languages (bilinguals). We analyze the models on complex networks and two-dimensional square lattices by analytical and numerical methods, and show that they exhibit a transition from one-language dominance to language coexistence. We find that the coexistence of languages is more difficult to maintain in the bilinguals model, where the presence of bilinguals facilitates the ultimate dominance of one of the two languages. A stability analysis reveals that the coexistence is more unlikely to happen in poorly connected than in fully connected networks, and that the dominance of just one language is enhanced as the connectivity decreases. This dominance effect is even stronger in a two-dimensional space, where domain coarsening tends to drive the system towards language consensus

  1. Impact of Carbon Quota Allocation Mechanism on Emissions Trading: An Agent-Based Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Jiang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes an agent-based simulation system of the carbon emissions trading in accordance with the complex feature of the trading process. This system analyzes the impact of the carbon quota allocation mechanism on emissions trading for three different aspects including the amount of emissions reduction, the economic effect on the emitters, and the emissions reduction cost. Based on the data of the carbon emissions of different industries in China, several simulations were made. The results indicate that the emissions trading policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions in a perfectly competitive market. Moreover, by comparing separate quota allocation mechanisms, we obtain the result that the scheme with a small extent quota decrease in a comprehensive allocation mechanism can minimize the unit carbon emission cost. Implementing this scheme can also achieve minimal effects of carbon emissions limitation on the economy on the basis that the environment is not destroyed. However, excessive quota decrease cannot promote the emitters to reduce emission. Taking into account that several developing countries have the dual task of limiting carbon emissions and developing the economy, it is necessary to adopt a comprehensive allocation mechanism of the carbon quota and increase the initial proportion of free allocation.

  2. Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

    2015-02-01

    In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level.

  3. Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

    2014-01-01

    Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement. PMID:24830736

  4. Mechanisms of self-organization and finite size effects in a minimal agent based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfi, V; Cristelli, M; Pietronero, L; Zaccaria, A

    2009-01-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the self-organization phenomenon in which the stylized facts originate from finite size effects with respect to the number of agents considered and disappear in the limit of an infinite population. By introducing the possibility that agents can enter or leave the market depending on the behavior of the price, it is possible to show that the system self-organizes in a regime with a finite number of agents which corresponds to the stylized facts. The mechanism for entering or leaving the market is based on the idea that a too stable market is unappealing for traders, while the presence of price movements attracts agents to enter and speculate on the market. We show that this mechanism is also compatible with the idea that agents are scared by a noisy and risky market at shorter timescales. We also show that the mechanism for self-organization is robust with respect to variations of the exit/entry rules and that the attempt to trigger the system to self-organize in a region without stylized facts leads to an unrealistic dynamics. We study the self-organization in a specific agent based model but we believe that the basic ideas should be of general validity

  5. A MULTI-AGENT BASED SOCIAL CRM FRAMEWORK FOR EXTRACTING AND ANALYSING OPINIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ABDELAZIZ EL FAZZIKI

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Social media provide a wide space for people from around the world to communicate, share knowledge and personal experiences. They increasingly become an important data source for opinion mining and sentiment analysis, thanks to shared comments and reviews about products and services. And companies are showing a growing interest to harness their potential, in order to support setting up marketing strategies. Despite the importance of sentiment analysis in decision making, there is a lack of social intelligence integration at the level of customer relationship management systems. Thus, social customer relationship management (SCRM systems have become an interesting research area. However, they need deep analytic techniques to transform the large amount of data “Big Data” into actionable insights. Such systems also require an advanced modelling and data processing methods, and must consider the emerging paradigm related to proactive systems. In this paper, we propose an agent based social framework that extracts and consolidates the reviews expressed via social media, in order to help enterprises know more about customers’ opinions toward a particular product or service. To illustrate our approach, we present the case study of Twitter reviews that we use to extract opinions and sentiment about a set of products using SentiGem API. Data extraction, analysis and storage are performed using a framework based on Hadoop MapReduce and HBase.

  6. Can human-like Bots control collective mood: agent-based simulations of online chats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadić, Bosiljka; Šuvakov, Milovan

    2013-10-01

    Using an agent-based modeling approach, in this paper, we study self-organized dynamics of interacting agents in the presence of chat Bots. Different Bots with tunable ‘human-like’ attributes, which exchange emotional messages with agents, are considered, and the collective emotional behavior of agents is quantitatively analyzed. In particular, using detrended fractal analysis we determine persistent fluctuations and temporal correlations in time series of agent activity and statistics of avalanches carrying emotional messages of agents when Bots favoring positive/negative affects are active. We determine the impact of Bots and identify parameters that can modulate that impact. Our analysis suggests that, by these measures, the emotional Bots induce collective emotion among interacting agents by suitably altering the fractal characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. Positive emotion Bots are slightly more effective than negative emotion Bots. Moreover, Bots which periodically alternate between positive and negative emotion can enhance fluctuations in the system, leading to avalanches of agent messages that are reminiscent of self-organized critical states.

  7. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid

    2016-12-21

    With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C), Deployment (D), Resource (R) and IOData (IO). Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design.

  8. Towards an Agent Based Framework for Modelling Smart Self-Sustainable Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Tomičić

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Self-sustainability is a property of a system; a system is considered to be self-sustainable if it can sustain itself without external support in an observed period of time. If this property is mapped to a human settlement in context of resources (water, energy, food, etc., it would describe a human settlement which is independent of external resources (like the national electrical grid or a central water distribution system, where such external resources are either not available, or not desirable. This article contributes to presenting the state-of-the-art overview of self-sustainability-related research. While self-sustainability as in the above described form was not a direct subject of research, there are several fields which are either related to, or could be of significant value to the self-sustainability research in this context. The extensive literature overview also showed no frameworks for modeling self sustainable systems in the context of human settlements. Herein a motivation for using agent-based modeling and simulation techniques will be given.

  9. Reverse engineering a social agent-based hidden markov model--visage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hung-Ching Justin; Goldberg, Mark; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Wallace, William A

    2008-12-01

    We present a machine learning approach to discover the agent dynamics that drives the evolution of the social groups in a community. We set up the problem by introducing an agent-based hidden Markov model for the agent dynamics: an agent's actions are determined by micro-laws. Nonetheless, We learn the agent dynamics from the observed communications without knowing state transitions. Our approach is to identify the appropriate micro-laws corresponding to an identification of the appropriate parameters in the model. The model identification problem is then formulated as a mixed optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a multistage learning process for determining the group structure, the group evolution, and the micro-laws of a community based on the observed set of communications among actors, without knowing the semantic contents. Finally, to test the quality of our approximations and the feasibility of the approach, we present the results of extensive experiments on synthetic data as well as the results on real communities, such as Enron email and Movie newsgroups. Insight into agent dynamics helps us understand the driving forces behind social evolution.

  10. Agent Based Modeling of Atherosclerosis: A Concrete Help in Personalized Treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappalardo, Francesco; Cincotti, Alessandro; Motta, Alfredo; Pennisi, Marzio

    Atherosclerosis, a pathology affecting arterial blood vessels, is one of most common diseases of the developed countries. We present studies on the increased atherosclerosis risk using an agent based model of atherogenesis that has been previously validated using clinical data. It is well known that the major risk in atherosclerosis is the persistent high level of low density lipoprotein (LDL) concentration. However, it is not known if short period of high LDL concentration can cause irreversible damage and if reduction of the LDL concentration (either by life style or drug) can drastically or partially reduce the already acquired risk. We simulated four different clinical situations in a large set of virtual patients (200 per clinical scenario). In the first one the patients lifestyle maintains the concentration of LDL in a no risk range. This is the control case simulation. The second case is represented by patients having high level of LDL with a delay to apply appropriate treatments; The third scenario is characterized by patients with high LDL levels treated with specific drugs like statins. Finally we simulated patients that are characterized by several oxidative events (smoke, sedentary life style, assumption of alcoholic drinks and so on so forth) that effective increase the risk of LDL oxidation. Those preliminary results obviously need to be clinically investigated. It is clear, however, that SimAthero has the power to concretely help medical doctors and clinicians in choosing personalized treatments for the prevention of the atherosclerosis damages.

  11. An Exploratory Study of the Butterfly Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khasawneh, Mahmoud T.; Zhang, Jun; Shearer, Nevan E. N.; Rodriquez-Velasquez, Elkin; Bowling, Shannon R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides insights about the behavior of chaotic complex systems, and the sensitive dependence of the system on the initial starting conditions. How much does a small change in the initial conditions of a complex system affect it in the long term? Do complex systems exhibit what is called the "Butterfly Effect"? This paper uses an agent-based modeling approach to address these questions. An existing model from NetLogo library was extended in order to compare chaotic complex systems with near-identical initial conditions. Results show that small changes in initial starting conditions can have a huge impact on the behavior of chaotic complex systems. The term the "butterfly effect" is attributed to the work of Edward Lorenz [1]. It is used to describe the sensitive dependence of the behavior of chaotic complex systems on the initial conditions of these systems. The metaphor refers to the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings somewhere may cause extreme changes in the ecological system's behavior in the future, such as a hurricane.

  12. A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Noah; Drucker, Nick; Campbell, Kenyth

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

  13. New Transfection Agents Based on Liposomes Containing Biosurfactant MEL-A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Mamoru; Inoh, Yoshikazu; Furuno, Tadahide

    2013-08-16

    Nano vectors are useful tools to deliver foreign DNAs, oligonucleotides, and small interfering double-stranded RNAs (siRNAs) into mammalian cells with gene transfection and gene regulation. In such experiments we have found the liposomes with a biosurfacant mannosylerythriol lipid (MEL-A) are useful because of their high transfer efficiency, and their unique mechanism to transfer genes to target cells with the lowest toxicity. In the present review we will describe our current work, which may contribute to the great advance of gene transfer to target cells and gene regulations. For more than two decades, the liposome technologies have changed dramatically and various methods have been proposed in the fields of biochemistry, cell biology, biotechnology, and so on. In addition, they were towards to pharmaceutics and clinical applications. The liposome technologies were expected to use gene therapy, however, they have not reached a requested goal as of yet. In the present paper we would like to present an approach using a biosurfactant, MEL-A, which is a surface-active compound produced by microorganisms growing on water-insoluble substrates and increases efficiency in gene transfection. The present work shows new transfection agents based on liposomes containing biosurfactant MEL-A.

  14. Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mniszewski, S M; Manore, C A; Bryan, C; Del Valle, S Y; Roberts, D

    2014-07-01

    Agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate the spread of infectious disease through a population. Detailed human movement, demography, realistic business location networks, and in-host disease progression are available in existing ABMs, such as the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS). These capabilities make possible the exploration of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation strategies used to inform the public health community. There is a similar need for the spread of mosquito borne pathogens due to the re-emergence of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever. A network-patch model for mosquito dynamics has been coupled with EpiSimS. Mosquitoes are represented as a "patch" or "cloud" associated with a location. Each patch has an ordinary differential equation (ODE) mosquito dynamics model and mosquito related parameters relevant to the location characteristics. Activities at each location can have different levels of potential exposure to mosquitoes based on whether they are inside, outside, or somewhere in-between. As a proof of concept, the hybrid network-patch model is used to simulate the spread of chikungunya through Washington, DC. Results are shown for a base case, followed by varying the probability of transmission, mosquito count, and activity exposure. We use visualization to understand the pattern of disease spread.

  15. Mesoscopic effects in an agent-based bargaining model in regular lattices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poza, David J; Santos, José I; Galán, José M; López-Paredes, Adolfo

    2011-03-09

    The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders.

  16. Mesoscopic effects in an agent-based bargaining model in regular lattices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Poza

    Full Text Available The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders.

  17. Agent-Based Modeling of China's Rural-Urban Migration and Social Network Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhaohao; Hao, Lingxin

    2018-01-15

    We analyze China's rural-urban migration and endogenous social network structures using agent-based modeling. The agents from census micro data are located in their rural origin with an empirical-estimated prior propensity to move. The population-scale social network is a hybrid one, combining observed family ties and locations of the origin with a parameter space calibrated from census, survey and aggregate data and sampled using a stepwise Latin Hypercube Sampling method. At monthly intervals, some agents migrate and these migratory acts change the social network by turning within-nonmigrant connections to between-migrant-nonmigrant connections, turning local connections to nonlocal connections, and adding among-migrant connections. In turn, the changing social network structure updates migratory propensities of those well-connected nonmigrants who become more likely to move. These two processes iterate over time. Using a core-periphery method developed from the k -core decomposition method, we identify and quantify the network structural changes and map these changes with the migration acceleration patterns. We conclude that network structural changes are essential for explaining migration acceleration observed in China during the 1995-2000 period.

  18. Coupling Agent-Based and Groundwater Modeling to Explore Demand Management Strategies for Shared Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, S.

    2015-12-01

    Municipal water demands in growing population centers in the arid southwest US are typically met through increased groundwater withdrawals. Hydro-climatic uncertainties attributed to climate change and land use conversions may also alter demands and impact the replenishment of groundwater supply. Groundwater aquifers are not necessarily confined within municipal and management boundaries, and multiple diverse agencies may manage a shared resource in a decentralized approach, based on individual concerns and resources. The interactions among water managers, consumers, and the environment influence the performance of local management strategies and regional groundwater resources. This research couples an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework and a groundwater model to analyze the effects of different management approaches on shared groundwater resources. The ABM captures the dynamic interactions between household-level consumers and policy makers to simulate water demands under climate change and population growth uncertainties. The groundwater model is used to analyze the relative effects of management approaches on reducing demands and replenishing groundwater resources. The framework is applied for municipalities located in the Verde River Basin, Arizona that withdraw groundwater from the Verde Formation-Basin Fill-Carbonate aquifer system. Insights gained through this simulation study can be used to guide groundwater policy-making under changing hydro-climatic scenarios for a long-term planning horizon.

  19. Optimal harvesting for a predator-prey agent-based model using difference equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oremland, Matthew; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, a method known as Pareto optimization is applied in the solution of a multi-objective optimization problem. The system in question is an agent-based model (ABM) wherein global dynamics emerge from local interactions. A system of discrete mathematical equations is formulated in order to capture the dynamics of the ABM; while the original model is built up analytically from the rules of the model, the paper shows how minor changes to the ABM rule set can have a substantial effect on model dynamics. To address this issue, we introduce parameters into the equation model that track such changes. The equation model is amenable to mathematical theory—we show how stability analysis can be performed and validated using ABM data. We then reduce the equation model to a simpler version and implement changes to allow controls from the ABM to be tested using the equations. Cohen's weighted κ is proposed as a measure of similarity between the equation model and the ABM, particularly with respect to the optimization problem. The reduced equation model is used to solve a multi-objective optimization problem via a technique known as Pareto optimization, a heuristic evolutionary algorithm. Results show that the equation model is a good fit for ABM data; Pareto optimization provides a suite of solutions to the multi-objective optimization problem that can be implemented directly in the ABM.

  20. Invited Commentary: Agent-Based Models-Bias in the Face of Discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyes, Katherine M; Tracy, Melissa; Mooney, Stephen J; Shev, Aaron; Cerdá, Magdalena

    2017-07-15

    Agent-based models (ABMs) have grown in popularity in epidemiologic applications, but the assumptions necessary for valid inference have only partially been articulated. In this issue, Murray et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2017;186(2):131-142) provided a much-needed analysis of the consequence of some of these assumptions, comparing analysis using an ABM to a similar analysis using the parametric g-formula. In particular, their work focused on the biases that can arise in ABMs that use parameters drawn from distinct populations whose causal structures and baseline outcome risks differ. This demonstration of the quantitative issues that arise in transporting effects between populations has implications not only for ABMs but for all epidemiologic applications, because making use of epidemiologic results requires application beyond a study sample. Broadly, because health arises within complex, dynamic, and hierarchical systems, many research questions cannot be answered statistically without strong assumptions. It will require every tool in our store of methods to properly understand population dynamics if we wish to build an evidence base that is adequate for action. Murray et al.'s results provide insight into these assumptions that epidemiologists can use when selecting a modeling approach. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. An agent-based model of cattle grazing toxic Geyer's larkspur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jablonski, Kevin E; Boone, Randall B; Meiman, Paul J

    2018-01-01

    By killing cattle and otherwise complicating management, the many species of larkspur (Delphinium spp.) present a serious, intractable, and complex challenge to livestock grazing management in the western United States. Among the many obstacles to improving our understanding of cattle-larkspur dynamics has been the difficulty of testing different grazing management strategies in the field, as the risk of dead animals is too great. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an effective method of testing alternate management strategies without risk to livestock. ABMs are especially useful for modeling complex systems such as livestock grazing management, and allow for realistic bottom-up encoding of cattle behavior. Here, we introduce a spatially-explicit, behavior-based ABM of cattle grazing in a pasture with a dangerous amount of Geyer's larkspur (D. geyeri). This model tests the role of herd cohesion and stocking density in larkspur intake, finds that both are key drivers of larkspur-induced toxicosis, and indicates that alteration of these factors within realistic bounds can mitigate risk. Crucially, the model points to herd cohesion, which has received little attention in the discipline, as playing an important role in lethal acute toxicosis. As the first ABM to model grazing behavior at realistic scales, this study also demonstrates the tremendous potential of ABMs to illuminate grazing management dynamics, including fundamental aspects of livestock behavior amidst ecological heterogeneity.

  2. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  3. Effects of Heterogeneity in Residential Preferences on an Agent-Based Model of Urban Sprawl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel G. Brown

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability of agent-based models (ABMs to represent heterogeneity in the characteristics and behaviors of actors enables analyses about the implications of this heterogeneity for system behavior. The importance of heterogeneity in the specification of ABMs, however, creates new demands for empirical support. An earlier analysis of a survey of residential preferences within southeastern Michigan revealed seven groups of residents with similar preferences on similar characteristics of location. In this paper, we present an ABM that represents the process of residential development within an urban system and run it for a hypothetical pattern of environmental variation. Residential locations are selected by residential agents, who evaluate locations on the basis of preference for nearness to urban services, including jobs, aesthetic quality of the landscape, and their similarity to their neighbors. We populate our ABM with a population of residential preferences drawn from the survey results in five different ways: (1 preferences drawn at random; (2 equal preferences based on the mean from the entire survey sample; (3 preferences drawn from a single distribution, whose mean and standard deviation are derived from the survey sample; (4 equal preferences within each of seven groups, based on the group means; and (5 preferences drawn from distributions for each of seven groups, defined by group means and standard deviations. Model sensitivity analysis, based on multiple runs of our model under each case, revealed that adding heterogeneity to agents has a significant effect on model outcomes, measured by aggregate patterns of development sprawl and clustering.

  4. High performance cellular level agent-based simulation with FLAME for the GPU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Paul; Walker, Dawn; Coakley, Simon; Romano, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    Driven by the availability of experimental data and ability to simulate a biological scale which is of immediate interest, the cellular scale is fast emerging as an ideal candidate for middle-out modelling. As with 'bottom-up' simulation approaches, cellular level simulations demand a high degree of computational power, which in large-scale simulations can only be achieved through parallel computing. The flexible large-scale agent modelling environment (FLAME) is a template driven framework for agent-based modelling (ABM) on parallel architectures ideally suited to the simulation of cellular systems. It is available for both high performance computing clusters (www.flame.ac.uk) and GPU hardware (www.flamegpu.com) and uses a formal specification technique that acts as a universal modelling format. This not only creates an abstraction from the underlying hardware architectures, but avoids the steep learning curve associated with programming them. In benchmarking tests and simulations of advanced cellular systems, FLAME GPU has reported massive improvement in performance over more traditional ABM frameworks. This allows the time spent in the development and testing stages of modelling to be drastically reduced and creates the possibility of real-time visualisation for simple visual face-validation.

  5. Analyzing maintenance strategies by agent-based simulations: A feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaegi, M.; Mock, R.; Kroeger, W.

    2009-01-01

    Thoroughly planned and implemented maintenance strategies save time and cost. However, the integration of maintenance work into reliability analysis is difficult as common modeling techniques are often not applicable due to state explosion which calls for restrictive model assumptions and oversimplification. From authors' point of view, agent-based modeling (ABM) of technical and organizational systems is a promising approach to overcome such problems. But since ABM is not well established in reliability analysis its feasibility in this area still has to be demonstrated. For this purpose ABM is compared with Markov chains, namely by analyzing the reliability of a maintained n-unit system with dependent repair events, applying both modeling approaches. Although ABM and Markov chains lead to the same numerical results, the former points out the potentiality of an improved system state handling. This is demonstrated by extending the ABM with operators as additional 'agents' featuring their location (x;y) availability (0;1) and different maintenance strategies. This extension highlights the capability of ABM to analyze complex emergent system behavior and allows a systematic refinement and optimization of the maintenance strategies.

  6. Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

    2014-01-01

    Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement.

  7. Dynamic knowledge representation using agent-based modeling: ontology instantiation and verification of conceptual models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Gary

    2009-01-01

    The sheer volume of biomedical research threatens to overwhelm the capacity of individuals to effectively process this information. Adding to this challenge is the multiscale nature of both biological systems and the research community as a whole. Given this volume and rate of generation of biomedical information, the research community must develop methods for robust representation of knowledge in order for individuals, and the community as a whole, to "know what they know." Despite increasing emphasis on "data-driven" research, the fact remains that researchers guide their research using intuitively constructed conceptual models derived from knowledge extracted from publications, knowledge that is generally qualitatively expressed using natural language. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computational modeling method that is suited to translating the knowledge expressed in biomedical texts into dynamic representations of the conceptual models generated by researchers. The hierarchical object-class orientation of ABM maps well to biomedical ontological structures, facilitating the translation of ontologies into instantiated models. Furthermore, ABM is suited to producing the nonintuitive behaviors that often "break" conceptual models. Verification in this context is focused at determining the plausibility of a particular conceptual model, and qualitative knowledge representation is often sufficient for this goal. Thus, utilized in this fashion, ABM can provide a powerful adjunct to other computational methods within the research process, as well as providing a metamodeling framework to enhance the evolution of biomedical ontologies.

  8. An Agent-Based Approach To Nodes Misbehaviour Detection In Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otor Samera U.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Existing Misbehaviour Detection Systems in Mobile Ad-hoc Networks MANETs are challenged with routing overhead and high latency resulting from complexity and failure to isolate and block misbehaving nodes for the reason that it is difficult to detect them as they participate fully in route finding. In this work a Mobile Agent-Based Acknowledgement scheme MAACK was formulated to address this problem using an object oriented algorithm deployed to report misbehaving nodes to the source and destination by registering the Internet Protocol IP address of misbehaving nodes in their header. The scheme was simulated using Network Simulator-3 NS-3 and results benchmarked with an existing scheme the Enhanced Adaptive Acknowledgment EAACK using packet delivery ratio routing overhead and latency as performance metrics in the two scenarios. The results showed that the MAACK paradigm guaranteed a higher packet delivery ratio lower latency and routing overhead than the EAACK scheme. The model can be adapted by Ad-Hoc network protocol developers.

  9. Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2014-06-01

    This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

  10. A multi-agent based distributed energy management scheme for smart grid applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radhakrishnan, Bharat Menon; Srinivasan, Dipti

    2016-01-01

    A multi-agent system based distributed EMS (energy management system) is proposed in this paper to perform optimal energy allocation and management for grids comprising of renewables, storage and distributed generation. The reliable and efficient operation of smart grids is slackened due to the presence of intermittent renewables. As the load demand and renewables are uncertain throughout the day, an energy management system is essential to ensure grid stability and achieve reductions in operation costs and CO_2 emissions. The main objectives of the proposed algorithm is to maintain power balance in the system and to ensure long cycle life for storage units by controlling their SOC (state of charge). The proposed EMS scheme is tested and validated on a practical test system, which replicates a small-scale smart grid with a variety of distributed sources, storage devices, loads, power electronic converters, and SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system. This system is also connected to the utility grid and the power exchange is controlled with the help of a battery system through a fuzzy based decision-making framework. The proposed algorithm is also extensively verified and tested using a series of sensitivity analyses and benchmarking with existing algorithms. - Highlights: • An agent-based decentralized algorithm is proposed to perform energy management. • The multi-agent system approach eliminates the possibility of single point failures. • Adaptive fuzzy systems make the decision making more reliable, flexible and robust. • The algorithm is extensively tested and validated using sensitivity and verification analyses.

  11. Coevolution in management fashion: an agent-based model of consultant-driven innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strang, David; David, Robert J; Akhlaghpour, Saeed

    2014-07-01

    The rise of management consultancy has been accompanied by increasingly marked faddish cycles in management techniques, but the mechanisms that underlie this relationship are not well understood. The authors develop a simple agent-based framework that models innovation adoption and abandonment on both the supply and demand sides. In opposition to conceptions of consultants as rhetorical wizards who engineer waves of management fashion, firms and consultants are treated as boundedly rational actors who chase the secrets of success by mimicking their highest-performing peers. Computational experiments demonstrate that consultant-driven versions of this dynamic in which the outcomes of firms are strongly conditioned by their choice of consultant are robustly faddish. The invasion of boom markets by low-quality consultants undercuts popular innovations while simultaneously restarting the fashion cycle by prompting the flight of high-quality consultants into less densely occupied niches. Computational experiments also indicate conditions involving consultant mobility, aspiration levels, mimic probabilities, and client-provider matching that attenuate faddishness.

  12. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C, Deployment (D, Resource (R and IOData (IO. Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design.

  13. Semantic Agent-Based Service Middleware and Simulation for Smart Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid

    2016-01-01

    With the development of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technology, a variety of embedded and mobile devices is integrated to interact via the platform of the Internet of Things, especially in the domain of smart cities. One of the primary challenges is that selecting the appropriate services or service combination for upper layer applications is hard, which is due to the absence of a unified semantical service description pattern, as well as the service selection mechanism. In this paper, we define a semantic service representation model from four key properties: Capability (C), Deployment (D), Resource (R) and IOData (IO). Based on this model, an agent-based middleware is built to support semantic service enablement. In this middleware, we present an efficient semantic service discovery and matching approach for a service combination process, which calculates the semantic similarity between services, and a heuristic algorithm to search the service candidates for a specific service request. Based on this design, we propose a simulation of virtual urban fire fighting, and the experimental results manifest the feasibility and efficiency of our design. PMID:28009818

  14. An agent-based hydroeconomic model to evaluate water policies in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Gorelick, S.

    2014-12-01

    Modern water systems can be characterized by a complex network of institutional and private actors that represent competing sectors and interests. Identifying solutions to enhance water security in such systems calls for analysis that can adequately account for this level of complexity and interaction. Our work focuses on the development of a hierarchical, multi-agent, hydroeconomic model that attempts to realistically represent complex interactions between hydrologic and multi-faceted human systems. The model is applied to Jordan, one of the most water-poor countries in the world. In recent years, the water crisis in Jordan has escalated due to an ongoing drought and influx of refugees from regional conflicts. We adopt a modular approach in which biophysical modules simulate natural and engineering phenomena, and human modules represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules employ agent-based modeling, in which agents act as autonomous decision makers at the transboundary, state, organizational, and user levels. A systematic nomenclature and conceptual framework is used to characterize model agents and modules. Concepts from the Unified Modeling Language (UML) are adopted to promote clear conceptualization of model classes and process sequencing, establishing a foundation for full deployment of the integrated model in a scalable object-oriented programming environment. Although the framework is applied to the Jordanian water context, it is generalizable to other regional human-natural freshwater supply systems.

  15. Developing framework for agent- based diabetes disease management system: user perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Safdari, Reza; Rahimi, Azin

    2014-02-01

    One of the characteristics of agents is mobility which makes them very suitable for remote electronic health and tele medicine. The aim of this study is developing a framework for agent based diabetes information management at national level through identifying required agents. The main tool is a questioner that is designed in three sections based on studying library resources, performance of major organizations in the field of diabetes in and out of the country and interviews with experts in the medical, health information management and software fields. Questionnaires based on Delphi methods were distributed among 20 experts. In order to design and identify agents required in health information management for the prevention and appropriate and rapid treatment of diabetes, the results were analyzed using SPSS 17 and Results were plotted with FREEPLANE mind map software. ACCESS TO DATA TECHNOLOGY IN PROPOSED FRAMEWORK IN ORDER OF PRIORITY IS: mobile (mean 1/80), SMS, EMAIL (mean 2/80), internet, web (mean 3/30), phone (mean 3/60), WIFI (mean 4/60). In delivering health care to diabetic patients, considering social and human aspects is essential. Having a systematic view for implementation of agent systems and paying attention to all aspects such as feedbacks, user acceptance, budget, motivation, hierarchy, useful standards, affordability of individuals, identifying barriers and opportunities and so on, are necessary.

  16. Connectionist agent-based learning in bank-run decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weihong; Huang, Qiao

    2018-05-01

    It is of utter importance for the policy makers, bankers, and investors to thoroughly understand the probability of bank-run (PBR) which was often neglected in the classical models. Bank-run is not merely due to miscoordination (Diamond and Dybvig, 1983) or deterioration of bank assets (Allen and Gale, 1998) but various factors. This paper presents the simulation results of the nonlinear dynamic probabilities of bank runs based on the global games approach, with the distinct assumption that heterogenous agents hold highly correlated but unidentical beliefs about the true payoffs. The specific technique used in the simulation is to let agents have an integrated cognitive-affective network. It is observed that, even when the economy is good, agents are significantly affected by the cognitive-affective network to react to bad news which might lead to bank-run. Both the rise of the late payoffs, R, and the early payoffs, r, will decrease the effect of the affective process. The increased risk sharing might or might not increase PBR, and the increase in late payoff is beneficial for preventing the bank run. This paper is one of the pioneers that links agent-based computational economics and behavioral economics.

  17. Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Liquidity Mismatch in Open-End Bond Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald J. Berndt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce a small-scale heterogeneous agent-based model of the US corporate bond market. The model includes a realistic micro-grounded ecology of investors that trade a set of bonds through dealers. Using the model, we simulate market dynamics that emerge from agent behaviors in response to basic exogenous factors (such as interest rate shocks and the introduction of regulatory policies and constraints. A first experiment focuses on the liquidity transformation provided by mutual funds and investigates the conditions under which redemption-driven bond sales may trigger market instability. We simulate the effects of increasing mutual fund market shares in the presence of market-wide repricing of risk (in the form of a 100 basis point increase in the expected returns. The simulations highlight robust-yet-fragile aspects of the growing liquidity transformation provided by mutual funds, with an inflection point beyond which redemption-driven negative feedback loops trigger market instability.

  18. BSim: an agent-based tool for modeling bacterial populations in systems and synthetic biology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E Gorochowski

    Full Text Available Large-scale collective behaviors such as synchronization and coordination spontaneously arise in many bacterial populations. With systems biology attempting to understand these phenomena, and synthetic biology opening up the possibility of engineering them for our own benefit, there is growing interest in how bacterial populations are best modeled. Here we introduce BSim, a highly flexible agent-based computational tool for analyzing the relationships between single-cell dynamics and population level features. BSim includes reference implementations of many bacterial traits to enable the quick development of new models partially built from existing ones. Unlike existing modeling tools, BSim fully considers spatial aspects of a model allowing for the description of intricate micro-scale structures, enabling the modeling of bacterial behavior in more realistic three-dimensional, complex environments. The new opportunities that BSim opens are illustrated through several diverse examples covering: spatial multicellular computing, modeling complex environments, population dynamics of the lac operon, and the synchronization of genetic oscillators. BSim is open source software that is freely available from http://bsim-bccs.sf.net and distributed under the Open Source Initiative (OSI recognized MIT license. Developer documentation and a wide range of example simulations are also available from the website. BSim requires Java version 1.6 or higher.

  19. A dynamic agent-based analysis for the environmental impacts of conventional and novel book retailing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ming; Allenby, Braden; Kim, Junbeum; Kahhat, Ramzy

    2009-04-15

    The dynamics of an e-commerce market and the associated environmental impacts from a bottom-up perspective using an agent-based model is explored. A conceptual meta-theory from psychology is adopted to form the behavioral rules of artificial consumers choosing different methods of buying a book, including conventional bookstores, e-commerce, and a proposed self-pick-up option. Given the energy and emissions savings that result from a shift to e-commerce from bookstore purchase, it appears that reductions in environmental impacts are relatively probable. Additionally, our results suggest that the shift to e-commerce is mainly due to the growth of Internet users, which ties energy and emissions savings to Internet penetration. Moreover, under any scenario, the energy and emissions savings will be provided by the introduction of the proposed self-pick-up option. Our model thus provides insights into market behaviors and related environmental impacts of the growing use of e-commerce systems at the retail level, and provides a basis for the development and implementation of more sustainable policies and practices.

  20. An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Emlyn Yang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasingly important in human exposure assessments of urban environments, in which each person is simulated individually and continuously. The paper further describes an agent-based model (ABM framework that can dynamically simulate human exposure levels, along with their daily activities, in urban areas that are characterized by environmental stresses such as air pollution and heat stress. Within the framework, decision-making processes can be included for each individual based on rule-based behavior in order to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions. The ideas described in this paper are implemented in a free and open source NetLogo platform. A basic modeling scenario of the ABM framework in Hamburg, Germany, demonstrates its utility in various urban environments and individual activity patterns, as well as its portability to other models, programs, and frameworks. The prototype model can potentially be extended to support environmental incidence management through exploring the daily routines of different groups of citizens, and comparing the effectiveness of different strategies. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model.