WorldWideScience

Sample records for strategic decision modelling

  1. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  2. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    2014-04-15

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  3. PRESCRIPTIVE MODEL FOR THE STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE ROMANIAN ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a prescriptive model for the strategic decision-making from the Romanianenterprises. Within the paper there will be described the phases implied in solving a strategicproblem. Finally, there will be presented a strategic decision from a Romanian enterprise, elaboratedon the base of the model.

  4. Strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision setting,consisting of a list of stakeholders with their capabilities, positions, and salience on each of the issues; (3) computer simulation. The computer simulation models incorporate only the main processe...

  5. The decision book fifty models for strategic thinking

    CERN Document Server

    Krogerus, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Most of us face the same questions every day: What do I want? And how can I get it? How can I live more happily and work more efficiently? A worldwide bestseller, The Decision Book distils into a single volume the fifty best decision-making models used on MBA courses and elsewhere that will help you tackle these important questions - from the well known (the Eisenhower matrix for time management) to the less familiar but equally useful (the Swiss Cheese model). It will even show you how to remember everything you will have learned by the end of it. Stylish and compact, this little black book is a powerful asset. Whether you need to plot a presentation, assess someone's business idea or get to know yourself better, this unique guide will help you simplify any problem and take steps towards the right decision.

  6. Modelling financial risk in open pit mine projects: Implications for strategic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Sabour, S.A.; Wood, G.

    2009-01-01

    Strategic decisions in the mining industry are made under multiple technical and market uncertainties. Therefore, to reach the best possible decision, based on information available, it is necessary to integrate uncertainty about the input variables and model financial risk of the project's merit measures. However, this rovides few useful insights to decision-makers unless accompanied by modeling management responses to uncertainty resolutions. It is widely acknowledged that conventional deci...

  7. Strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stokman, Frans N.; Assen, Marcel A.L.M. van; Knoop, Jelle van der; Oosten, Reinier C.H. van

    2000-01-01

    This paper introduces a methodology for strategic intervention in collective decision making.The methodology is based on (1) a decomposition of the problem into a few main controversial issues, (2) systematic interviews of subject area specialists to obtain a specification of the decision

  8. Participative business modelling to support strategic decision making in operations : a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, H.A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes a case study in which a consultancy method based on participative business modelling was used to support strategic decision making in the field of operations. In this case study the Dutch client company faced serious logical and financial problems after an attempt to attain competitive

  9. Research of Strategic Alliance Stable Decision-making Model Based on Rough Set and DEA

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang Yi

    2013-01-01

    This article uses rough set theory for stability evaluation system of strategic alliance at first. Uses data analysis method for reduction, eliminates redundant indexes. Selected 6 enterprises as a decision-making unit, then select 4 inputs and 2 outputs indexes data, using DEA model to calculate, analysis reasons for poor benefit of decision-making unit, find out improvement direction and quantity for changing, provide a reference for the alliance stability.

  10. Microfoundations of strategic decision effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, R.J.G.; Van Santen, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    How do organizations make effective strategic decisions? In this study we build on research on the microfoundations of strategy and strategic decision-making to study the underpinnings of strategic decision effectiveness. We argue that the process-effectiveness link can be more fully understood if

  11. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    OpenAIRE

    Tungju Wu; Yenchun Jim Wu; Hsientang Tsai; Yibin Li

    2017-01-01

    Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT) of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires o...

  12. Top Management Teams’ Characteristics and Strategic Decision-Making: A Mediation of Risk Perceptions and Mental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tungju Wu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decision-making is a key factor of sustainability and development in enterprises. Moreover, the top management team (TMT of an enterprise constitutes the base for decision-making. This study employed structural equation modeling to analyze questionnaires regarding TMTs’ characteristics and strategic decision-making, and tested the mediating effects of risk perceptions and mental models and the moderating effects of psychological ownership. We investigated 289 valid questionnaires on TMTs completed by representatives from enterprises in China and found risk perceptions and mental models that serve as a mediating factor and are affected by the TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. We also found that psychological ownership exerts moderating effects between TMTs’ characteristics and decision-making. This paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications for enterprise owners.

  13. Logistics strategic decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steadie Seifi, M.; Farahani, R.Z.; Rezapour, S.; Kardar, L.

    2011-01-01

    Logistics has an important economic role because it swallows the biggest part of capital and supports the flow and movement of many economic transactions. Therefore, designing the best logistics strategies is vital. In this chapter, we take a look at different kinds of logistics decisions,

  14. Strategic Decision Making Paradigms: A Primer for Senior Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    decision making . STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Strategic Change: There are several strategic...influenced by stakeholders outside of the organization. The Ontology of Strategic Decision Making . Strategic decisions are non-routine and involve...Coates USAWC, July 2009 5 The Complexity of Strategic Decision Making Strategic decisions entail “ill-structured,”6 “messy” or

  15. Corporate Foresight and Strategic Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gomez Portaleoni, Claudio; Marinova, Svetla Trifonova; Ul-Haq, Rehan

    . It provides an extensive analysis of extant theories of corporate foresight and strategic management, brings in new notions and insights, and presents an in-depth case study exploration of corporate foresight of a European bank. The understanding of organizational future is influenced by the perceived......The investigation of the future of an organization has always captivated the attention of academics and business managers. Presently, the aspiration to entrench future-relevant insights into management practices is a must. Companies that have made attempts to use corporate foresight have generally...... dealt successfully with internal information sharing processes that in most cases have prepared them for the challenges of the future. Corporate Foresights and Strategic Decisions investigates the relationships between corporate foresight and management decision-making processes in organizations...

  16. Planning woody biomass logistics for energy production: A strategic decision model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frombo, F.; Robba, M.; Minciardi, R.; Sacile, R.; Rosso, F.

    2009-01-01

    One of the key factors on which the sustainable development of modern society should be based is the possibility to take advantage of renewable energies. Biomass resources are one of the most common and widespread resources in the world. Their use to produce energy has many advantages, such as the reduction of greenhouse emissions. This paper describes a GIS-based Environmental Decision Support System (EDSS) to define planning and management strategies for the optimal logistics for energy production from woody biomass, such as forest biomass, agricultural scraps and industrial and urban untreated wood residues. The EDSS is characterized by three main levels: the GIS, the database, and the optimization. The optimization module is divided in three sub-modules to face different kinds of decision problems: strategic planning, tactical planning, and operational management. The aim of this article is to describe the strategic planning level in detail. The decision variables are represented by plant capacity and harvested biomass in a specific forest parcel for each slope class, while the objective function is the sum of the costs related to plant installation and maintenance, biomass transportation and collection, minus the benefits coming from the energy sales at the current market price, including the renewable energy certificates. Moreover, the optimization problem is structured through a set of parameters and equations that are able to encompass different energy conversion technologies (pyrolysis, gasification or combustion) in the system. A case study on the Liguria Region (Savona Province) is presented and results are discussed. (author)

  17. IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT MODELS IN DECISION MAKING, EXPLAINING THE STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR IN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the different models of decision process analyzing the organizational strategy. The article presents the strategy according to a cognitive approach. The discussion about that approach has three models of decision process: rational actor model, organizational behavior, and political model. These models, respectively, present some improvement in the decision making results, search for a good decision facing the cognitive restrictions of the administrator, and lots of talks for making a decision. According to the emphasis of each model, the possibilities for analyzing the strategy are presented. The article also shows that it is necessary to take into account the three different ways of analysis. That statement is justified once the analysis as well as the decision making become more complex, mainly those which are more important for the organizations.

  18. A system-of-systems modeling methodology for strategic general aviation design decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Henry Thome

    General aviation has long been studied as a means of providing an on-demand "personal air vehicle" that bypasses the traffic at major commercial hubs. This thesis continues this research through development of a system of systems modeling methodology applicable to the selection of synergistic product concepts, market segments, and business models. From the perspective of the conceptual design engineer, the design and selection of future general aviation aircraft is complicated by the definition of constraints and requirements, and the tradeoffs among performance and cost aspects. Qualitative problem definition methods have been utilized, although their accuracy in determining specific requirement and metric values is uncertain. In industry, customers are surveyed, and business plans are created through a lengthy, iterative process. In recent years, techniques have developed for predicting the characteristics of US travel demand based on travel mode attributes, such as door-to-door time and ticket price. As of yet, these models treat the contributing systems---aircraft manufacturers and service providers---as independently variable assumptions. In this research, a methodology is developed which seeks to build a strategic design decision making environment through the construction of a system of systems model. The demonstrated implementation brings together models of the aircraft and manufacturer, the service provider, and most importantly the travel demand. Thus represented is the behavior of the consumers and the reactive behavior of the suppliers---the manufacturers and transportation service providers---in a common modeling framework. The results indicate an ability to guide the design process---specifically the selection of design requirements---through the optimization of "capability" metrics. Additionally, results indicate the ability to find synergetic solutions, that is solutions in which two systems might collaborate to achieve a better result than acting

  19. Strategic decision quality in Flemish municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.R.J. George (Bert); S. Desmidt (Sebastian); J. De Moyer (Julie)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractStrategic planning (SP) has taken the public sector by storm because it is widely believed that SP’s approach to strategic decision-making strengthens strategic decision quality (SDQ) in public organizations. However, if or how SP relates to SDQ seems to lack empirical evidence. Drawing

  20. Personnel Recovery: Using Game Theory to Model Strategic Decision Making in the Contemporary Operating Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ecklund, Marshall V

    2005-01-01

    .... Thus, the central research question is as follows: Given a report of the physical location of an evader, is the military using the most rational decision-making model to offset the predictable nature of traditional recovery activities...

  1. A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capelo, Carlos; Dias, Joao Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term…

  2. Integrated catchment modelling within a strategic planning and decision making process: Werra case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Jörg; Funke, Markus

    Integrated water resources management (IWRM) redefines conventional water management approaches through a closer cross-linkage between environment and society. The role of public participation and socio-economic considerations becomes more important within the planning and decision making process. In this paper we address aspects of the integration of catchment models into such a process taking the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as an example. Within a case study situated in the Werra river basin (Central Germany), a systems analytic decision process model was developed. This model uses the semantics of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity model. As an example application, the catchment model SWAT and the water quality model RWQM1 were applied to simulate the effect of phosphorus emissions from non-point and point sources on water quality. The decision process model was able to guide the participants of the case study through the interdisciplinary planning and negotiation of actions. Further improvements of the integration framework include tools for quantitative uncertainty analyses, which are crucial for real life application of models within an IWRM decision making toolbox. For the case study, the multi-criteria assessment of actions indicates that the polluter pays principle can be met at larger scales (sub-catchment or river basin) without significantly compromising cost efficiency for the local situation.

  3. A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Capelo, Carlos; Dias, João Ferreira

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and manag...

  4. Strategic Decision Games: Improving Strategic Intuition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    DeFoor, John E

    2007-01-01

    .... Joint doctrine recognizes intuition but overwhelmingly emphasizes analytical methods. The joint community has ample guidance and receives training and education in support of analytical decision making...

  5. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  6. Applying a contingency model of strategic decision making to the implementation of smoking bans: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemsen, M C; Meijer, A; Jannink, M

    1999-08-01

    A model of strategic decision making was applied to study the implementation of worksite smoking policy. This model assumes there is no best way of implementing smoking policies, but that 'the best way' depends on how decision making fits specific content and context factors. A case study at Wehkamp, a mail-order company, is presented to illustrate the usefulness of this model to understand how organizations implement smoking policies. Interview data were collected from representatives of Wehkamp, and pre- and post-ban survey data were collected from employees. After having failed to solve the smoking problem in a more democratic way, Wehkamp's top management choose a highly confrontational and decentralized decision-making approach to implement a complete smoking ban. This resulted in an effective smoking ban, but was to some extent at the cost of employees' satisfaction with the policy and with how the policy was implemented. The choice of implementation approach was contingent upon specific content and context factors, such as managers' perception of the problem, leadership style and legislation. More case studies from different types of companies are needed to better understand how organizational factors affect decision making about smoking bans and other health promotion innovations.

  7. Strategic enterprise resource planning in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chang Won; Kwak, N K

    2011-04-01

    This paper deals with strategic enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a health-care system using a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model. The model is developed and analyzed on the basis of the data obtained from a leading patient-oriented provider of health-care services in Korea. Goal criteria and priorities are identified and established via the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Goal programming (GP) is utilized to derive satisfying solutions for designing, evaluating, and implementing an ERP. The model results are evaluated and sensitivity analyses are conducted in an effort to enhance the model applicability. The case study provides management with valuable insights for planning and controlling health-care activities and services.

  8. Complex Strategic Choices Applying Systemic Planning for Strategic Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Effective decision making requires a clear methodology, particularly in a complex world of globalisation. Institutions and companies in all disciplines and sectors are faced with increasingly multi-faceted areas of uncertainty which cannot always be effectively handled by traditional strategies. Complex Strategic Choices provides clear principles and methods which can guide and support strategic decision making to face the many current challenges. By considering ways in which planning practices can be renewed and exploring the possibilities for acquiring awareness and tools to add value to strategic decision making, Complex Strategic Choices presents a methodology which is further illustrated by a number of case studies and example applications. Dr. Techn. Steen Leleur has adapted previously established research based on feedback and input from various conferences, journals and students resulting in new material stemming from and focusing on practical application of a systemic approach. The outcome is a coher...

  9. A strategic decision-making model considering the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions for sustainable supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Shih-Chang; Hung, Shiu-Wan

    2014-01-15

    Incorporating sustainability into supply chain management has become a critical issue driven by pressures from governments, customers, and various stakeholder groups over the past decade. This study proposes a strategic decision-making model considering both the operational costs and social costs caused by the carbon dioxide emissions from operating such a supply chain network for sustainable supply chain management. This model was used to evaluate carbon dioxide emissions and operational costs under different scenarios in an apparel manufacturing supply chain network. The results showed that the higher the social cost rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the lower the amount of the emission of carbon dioxide. The results also suggested that a legislation that forces the enterprises to bear the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from their economic activities is an effective approach to reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A decision support system for strategic planning on pig farms

    OpenAIRE

    Backus, Ge B.C.; Timmer, G. Th.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.; Eidman, V.R.; Vos, F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper reported on a decision support system (DSS) for strategic planning on pig farms. The DSS was based . on a stochastic simulation model of investment decisions (ISM). ISM described a farm with one loan and one building using 23 variables. The simulation model calculated the results of a strategic plan for an individual pig farm over a time horizon of a maximum of 20 years for a given scenario. For six distinct replacement strategies, regression metamodels were specified to describe t...

  11. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision problems. New quantitative models are developed for these decision problems using a range of mathematical techniques, thereby contributing to the further development of purchasing theory and its appliati...

  12. Strategic level proton therapy patient admission planning: a Markov decision process modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedik, Ridvan; Zhang, Shengfan; Rainwater, Chase

    2017-06-01

    A relatively new consideration in proton therapy planning is the requirement that the mix of patients treated from different categories satisfy desired mix percentages. Deviations from these percentages and their impacts on operational capabilities are of particular interest to healthcare planners. In this study, we investigate intelligent ways of admitting patients to a proton therapy facility that maximize the total expected number of treatment sessions (fractions) delivered to patients in a planning period with stochastic patient arrivals and penalize the deviation from the patient mix restrictions. We propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model that provides very useful insights in determining the best patient admission policies in the case of an unexpected opening in the facility (i.e., no-shows, appointment cancellations, etc.). In order to overcome the curse of dimensionality for larger and more realistic instances, we propose an aggregate MDP model that is able to approximate optimal patient admission policies using the worded weight aggregation technique. Our models are applicable to healthcare treatment facilities throughout the United States, but are motivated by collaboration with the University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute (UFPTI).

  13. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  14. Using Cognitive Conflict to Promote the Use of Dialectical Learning for Strategic Decision-Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Jeffrey G.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual model that uses dialectical inquiry (DI) to create cognitive conflict in strategic decision-makers for the purpose of improving strategic decisions. Activation of the dialectical learning process using DI requires strategic decision-makers to integrate conflicting information causing…

  15. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  16. Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

    2014-07-01

    To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Strategic Control in Decision Making under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott

    2012-01-01

    Complex economic decisions – whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget – often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, to evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and to flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research implicates the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control while the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue both for generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and for specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are also likely to be critical for decision making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. PMID:22487037

  18. Game Relativity: How Context Influences Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlaev, Ivo; Chater, Nick

    2006-01-01

    Existing models of strategic decision making typically assume that only the attributes of the currently played game need be considered when reaching a decision. The results presented in this article demonstrate that the so-called "cooperativeness" of the previously played prisoner's dilemma games influence choices and predictions in the current…

  19. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

  20. Diagnosing barriers to make strategic decisions in manufacturing business units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadali Shah Housseini

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, due to the transition from the old economic model to the global village constituting patterns, different functional requirements are needed. In other words, for success in the modern production management, strategic decisions must create the conditions for taking new systems for enterprises and create conditions for the competitiveness of manufacturing firms. This paper presents a survey on diagnosing barriers to make strategic decisions in a manufacturing firm named Pakshoo company in city of Tehran, Iran. The study tries to find the obstacles for the implementation of strategic decisions in this firm. The study determines 14 different factors influencing on the development of strategic planning and using analytical hierarchy process, prioritize them, accordingly. In our survey, behavioral factors are considered as the most important factors followed by structural and context issues.

  1. The Dynamics of Strategic Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia

    Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top management...... with dominant logics anchored in previous business contexts usually receive updated information from performance reports for prior periods. All the while, we discern a human inclination linked to the position of power where managers subconsciously discard updated information from frontline employees. We present...... an experiment to investigate these effects and discuss the implications for strategic response capabilities among firms....

  2. A strategic decision support system for logistics and supply chain ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    T Biswas

    strategic decision support model in achieving better utilization of network and resources to fulfil the ... demand is demonstrated using illustrative scenarios inspired from the real case of a logistics company. ... performance, because they determine the supply chain ..... to accurately measure the desirability of the features.

  3. Strategic planning decisions in the high tech industry

    CERN Document Server

    Daim, Tugrul; Beyhan, Berna; Basoglu, Nuri

    2013-01-01

    The scale and complexity of research and practices of open innovation mandate a correspondingly sophisticated form of decision making. Strategic Planning Decisions brings together a number of tools that ease the decision process in technology companies, providing both conceptual frameworks and practical applications. Innovative approaches are presented such as an ontology-based model where all the relevant aspects of a potential technology are interrelated to provide a comprehensive and logically connected data pool for decision makers. Divided into two sections, Strategic Planning Decisions describe both strategic approaches using the decision tools, and tactical approaches. Some of these tools are expanded while some others are embedded in a model that will lay the ground for practical application. These include: ·         bibliometric analysis, ·         ontology, ·         roadmapping, ·         lead user, six sigma, and ·         multi-actor & multi-object...

  4. Environmental Cost Accounting Information and Strategic Business Decision in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebipanipre Gabriel Mieseigha

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at examining environmental cost accounting information and strategic business decision in Nigeria. The general assumption that conventional cost accounting does not have the ability to provide absolute information for evaluating the environmental behaviour of an organization and its economic consequences has motivated this study. Towards achieving this, secondary data was employed and a linear model was specified. Findings indicated that environmental cost accounting information as it relates to strategic business decision is valuerelevant. It was on this note that we recommended firms to constantly reposition their accounting system in order to provide information on environmental costs so that the true costs in an organization can be ascertained and properly allocated. Also, due attention should be paid to waste management costs, employee health costs, investment financing costs, compliance and environmental costs and all environmental related costs by manufacturing concerns since they influence strategic decision. Our study is one of those that have explored the issue of environmental cost accounting relevance in strategic business decision in the Nigerian context.

  5. Modelling qualitative knowledge for strategic river management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Judith

    2009-01-01

    In decision making processes on strategic river management, use of models is not as great as the research efforts in the field of model application might suggest they could be. Both the fact that the development of many models remains restricted to readily available data and pre-existing models,

  6. Impaired strategic decision making in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyojin; Lee, Daeyeol; Shin, Young-Min; Chey, Jeanyung

    2007-11-14

    Adaptive decision making in dynamic social settings requires frequent re-evaluation of choice outcomes and revision of strategies. This requires an array of multiple cognitive abilities, such as working memory and response inhibition. Thus, the disruption of such abilities in schizophrenia can have significant implications for social dysfunctions in affected patients. In the present study, 20 schizophrenia patients and 20 control subjects completed two computerized binary decision-making tasks. In the first task, the participants played a competitive zero-sum game against a computer in which the predictable choice behavior was penalized and the optimal strategy was to choose the two targets stochastically. In the second task, the expected payoffs of the two targets were fixed and unaffected by the subject's choices, so the optimal strategy was to choose the target with the higher expected payoff exclusively. The schizophrenia patients earned significantly less money during the first task, even though their overall choice probabilities were not significantly different from the control subjects. This was mostly because patients were impaired in integrating the outcomes of their previous choices appropriately in order to maintain the optimal strategy. During the second task, the choices of patients and control subjects displayed more similar patterns. This study elucidated the specific components in strategic decision making that are impaired in schizophrenia. The deficit, which can be characterized as strategic stiffness, may have implications for the poor social adjustment in schizophrenia patients.

  7. How Firms Substitute for Authority in Strategic Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dobrajska, Magdalena; Billinger, Stephan; Becker, Markus C.

    Strategic decisions are often made by multiple organizational members who form decision-making structures specialized for a given strategic decision. We study a series of strategic decisions in a business unit of a global Fortune 500 firm, identifying for each decision the hierarchical...... takes place in response to changes in decision characteristics, including decision complexity, decision importance, CEO proximity, and the degree to which a decision is routine. We show various manifestations of the substitution mechanism and discuss implications for strategic decision-making....... and departmental positions of all participating organizational members. We find that firms substitute between different structural components in decision-making structures to combine hierarchical authority with cross-departmental coordination and redundant knowledge. This substitution between structural components...

  8. Application of a collaborative modelling and strategic fuzzy decision support system for selecting appropriate resilience strategies for seaport operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew John

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The selection of an appropriate resilience investment strategy to optimize the operational efficiency of a seaport is a challenging task given that many criteria need to be considered and modelled under an uncertain environment. The design of such a complex decision system consists of many subjective and imprecise parameters contained in different quantitative and qualitative forms. This paper proposes a fuzzy multi-attribute decision making methodology for the selection of an appropriate resilience investment strategy in a succinct and straightforward manner. The decision support model allows for a collaborative modelling of the system by multiple analysts in a group decision making process. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP was utilized to analyse the complex structure of the system to obtain the weights of all the criteria while fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS was employed to facilitate the ranking process of the resilience strategies. Given that it is often financially difficult to invest in all the resilience strategies, it is envisaged that the proposed approach could provide decision makers with a flexible and transparent tool for selecting appropriate resilience strategies aimed at increasing the resilience of seaport operations.

  9. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger [Environment Agency, London (United Kingdom). National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal; Kemp, Ray; Crawford, Mark [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its

  10. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger

    2001-01-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its wider potential role

  11. NPD gate decision criteria - a consequence of strategic orientation or decision-maker expertise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergård, Helle Alsted Søndergård; Jespersen, Kristina Risom

    2008-01-01

    criteria at the decision gates. Results from a sample of 132 NPD practitioners studied a simulated NPD process show that the importance of decision criteria is influenced by both the strategic orientation of the company and individual decision-making expertise. Especially the proactive and aggressive...... strategic orientations influence the prioritisation of decision criteria....

  12. Strategic planning to reduce the burden of stroke among veterans: using simulation modeling to inform decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lich, Kristen Hassmiller; Tian, Yuan; Beadles, Christopher A; Williams, Linda S; Bravata, Dawn M; Cheng, Eric M; Bosworth, Hayden B; Homer, Jack B; Matchar, David B

    2014-07-01

    Reducing the burden of stroke is a priority for the Veterans Affairs Health System, reflected by the creation of the Veterans Affairs Stroke Quality Enhancement Research Initiative. To inform the initiative's strategic planning, we estimated the relative population-level impact and efficiency of distinct approaches to improving stroke care in the US Veteran population to inform policy and practice. A System Dynamics stroke model of the Veteran population was constructed to evaluate the relative impact of 15 intervention scenarios including both broad and targeted primary and secondary prevention and acute care/rehabilitation on cumulative (20 years) outcomes including quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, strokes prevented, stroke fatalities prevented, and the number-needed-to-treat per QALY gained. At the population level, a broad hypertension control effort yielded the largest increase in QALYs (35,517), followed by targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among Veterans with prior cardiovascular disease (27,856) and hypertension control among diabetics (23,100). Adjusting QALYs gained by the number of Veterans needed to treat, thrombolytic therapy with tissue-type plasminogen activator was most efficient, needing 3.1 Veterans to be treated per QALY gained. This was followed by rehabilitation (3.9) and targeted prevention addressing hypertension and anticoagulation among those with prior cardiovascular disease (5.1). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the ranking of interventions was robust to uncertainty in input parameter values. Prevention strategies tend to have larger population impacts, though interventions targeting specific high-risk groups tend to be more efficient in terms of number-needed-to-treat per QALY gained. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Options theory and strategic investment decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, D.; Goobie, G.; MacMillan, L.

    1992-01-01

    The possible use of options pricing theory for evaluating long-term capital investments is discussed. Using the Black and Scholes option pricing model, five variables were evaluated for a hypothetical oil sands project. These variables are: stock price as determined by the earning power of the company; exercise price which equals the investment cost of the project; price standard deviation which is assumed to be 50%; the length of time for which the company will maintain its option to invest in the project, and finally the risk free rate which is approximately equal to the yield in long term government securities. A sensitivity analysis on these variables can provide management with information on how best to influence the option value. A more in-depth analysis could provide valuable information about strategic choice for large projects. 5 refs., 3 figs

  14. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision

  15. Using Model to Plan of Strategic Objectives

    OpenAIRE

    Terezie Bartusková; Jitka Baňařová; Zuzana Kusněřová

    2012-01-01

    Importance of strategic planning is unquestionable. However, the practical implementation of a strategic plan faces too many obstacles. The aim of the article is explained the importance of strategic planning and to find how companies in Moravian-Silesian Region deal with strategic planning, and to introduce the model, which helps to set strategic goals in financial indicators area. This model should be part of the whole process of strategic planning and can be use to predict the future value...

  16. Strategic Decision to Utilize Abu Ghraib

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-22

    manuscript is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Master of Strategic Studies Degree. The views expressed in this student academic...submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Master of Strategic Studies Degree. The U.S. Army War College is accredited by the Commission...operations. Endnotes 1 Catharine MacKinnon, ― Feminism Unmodified: Discourses on Life and Law,‖ 1987, http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes

  17. Social motives and strategic misrepresentation in social decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinel, W.; de Dreu, C.K.W.

    2004-01-01

    In 4 experiments, the authors studied the influence of social motives on deception and strategic misrepresentation. In a newly developed information provision game, individuals faced a decision maker whose decision would affect both own and others outcomes. By withholding information or by giving

  18. Understanding the Strategic Decisions Women Make in Farming Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmar-Bowers, Quentin

    2010-01-01

    Decision-systems theory (DST) was developed from in-depth interviews with farming families and provides an interpretation of the processes farming families use in making strategic decisions in regard to the family members, the farm and the businesses the farming family run. Understanding the nature and justifications used for different decisions…

  19. Fuzzy Predictions for Strategic Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    This article theorizes a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second-generation prediction markets and outline it...

  20. Strategic control in decision-making under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vinod; Huettel, Scott A

    2012-04-01

    Complex economic decisions - whether investing money for retirement or purchasing some new electronic gadget - often involve uncertainty about the likely consequences of our choices. Critical for resolving that uncertainty are strategic meta-decision processes, which allow people to simplify complex decision problems, evaluate outcomes against a variety of contexts, and flexibly match behavior to changes in the environment. In recent years, substantial research has implicated the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) in the flexible control of behavior. However, nearly all such evidence comes from paradigms involving executive function or response selection, not complex decision-making. Here, we review evidence that demonstrates that the dmPFC contributes to strategic control in complex decision-making. This region contains a functional topography such that the posterior dmPFC supports response-related control, whereas the anterior dmPFC supports strategic control. Activation in the anterior dmPFC signals changes in how a decision problem is represented, which in turn can shape computational processes elsewhere in the brain. Based on these findings, we argue for both generalized contributions of the dmPFC to cognitive control, and specific computational roles for its subregions depending upon the task demands and context. We also contend that these strategic considerations are likely to be critical for decision-making in other domains, including interpersonal interactions in social settings. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  2. Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

    Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

  3. Strategic-Decision Quality in Public Organizations: An Information Processing Perspective.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.R.J. George (Bert); S. Desmidt (Sebastian)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision

  4. Decisive Army Strategic and Expeditionary Maneuver

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    emerging changes will impact strategic maneuver by 2025. For example, a rapid transition is occurring in the commercial air cargo market where 777...more readily available in the international defense market and in the inventories of potential adversaries. In short, the study team believes HPMs... Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), available at: http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index- vni

  5. Strategic Path Planning by Sequential Parametric Bayesian Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baro Hyun

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to generate a path for a mobile agent that carries sensors used for classification, where the path is to optimize strategic objectives that account for misclassification and the consequences of misclassification, and where the weights assigned to these consequences are chosen by a strategist. We propose a model that accounts for the interaction between the agent kinematics (i.e., the ability to move, informatics (i.e., the ability to process data to information, classification (i.e., the ability to classify objects based on the information, and strategy (i.e., the mission objective. Within this model, we pose and solve a sequential decision problem that accounts for strategist preferences and the solution to the problem yields a sequence of kinematic decisions of a moving agent. The solution of the sequential decision problem yields the following flying tactics: “approach only objects whose suspected identity matters to the strategy”. These tactics are numerically illustrated in several scenarios.

  6. Collaborative Strategic Decision Making in School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazer, S. David; Rich, William; Ross, Susan A.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The dual purpose of this paper is to determine how superintendents in US school districts work with stakeholders in the decision-making process and to learn how different choices superintendents make affect decision outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This multiple case study of three school districts employs qualitative methodology to…

  7. Hospital boards and hospital strategic focus: the impact of board involvement in strategic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford-Eickhoff, Karen; Plowman, Donde Ashmos; McDaniel, Reuben R

    2011-01-01

    Despite pressures to change the role of hospital boards, hospitals have made few changes in board composition or director selection criteria. Hospital boards have often continued to operate in their traditional roles as either "monitors" or "advisors." More attention to the direct involvement of hospital boards in the strategic decision-making process of the organizations they serve, the timing and circumstances under which board involvement occurs, and the board composition that enhances their abilities to participate fully is needed. We investigated the relationship between broader expertise among hospital board members, board involvement in the stages of strategic decision making, and the hospital's strategic focus. We surveyed top management team members of 72 nonacademic hospitals to explore the participation of critical stakeholder groups such as the board of directors in the strategic decision-making process. We used hierarchical regression analysis to explore our hypotheses that there is a relationship between both the nature and involvement of the board and the hospital's strategic orientation. Hospitals with broader expertise on their boards reported an external focus. For some of their externally-oriented goals, hospitals also reported that their boards were involved earlier in the stages of decision making. In light of the complex and dynamic environment of hospitals today, those charged with developing hospital boards should match the variety in the external issues that the hospital faces with more variety in board makeup. By developing a board with greater breadth of expertise, the hospital responds to its complex environment by absorbing that complexity, enabling a greater potential for sensemaking and learning. Rather than acting only as monitors and advisors, boards impact their hospitals' strategic focus through their participation in the strategic decision-making process.

  8. Simulation based decision support for strategic communication and marketing management concerning the consumer introduction of smart energy meters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen STRAGIER

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Communication and marketing professionals make strategic decisions in highly complex and dynamic contexts. These decisions are highly uncertain on the outcome and process level when, for example, consumer behaviour is at stake. Decision support systems can provide insights in these levels of uncertainty and the professional process of decision making. However, literature describing decision support tools for strategic communication and marketing management that provide clear insights in uncertainty levels is lacking. This study therefore aims at developing a consumer behaviour simulation module as an important element of such a future decision support tool. The consumer behaviour simulation we propose in this paper is based on data collected from a survey among 386 households with which a behavioural change model was calibrated. We show how various decision scenarios for strategic communication and marketing challenges can be explored and how such a simulation based decision support system can facilitate strategic communication and marketing management concerning the introduction of a smart energy meter.

  9. Green Decision Making: How Systemic Planning can support Strategic Decision Making for Sustainable Transport Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen

    for Strategic Management. The book was published in 2012 by Springer-Verlag, London, as a research monograph in the publisher’s series about Decision Engineering. The intention behind this new book – with its focus upon ‘greening’ of strategic decisions – is to provide a general and less technical description......The book is based on my participation in the SUSTAIN research project 2012-2017 about National Sustainable Transport Planning funded by the Danish Research Council (Innovationsfonden). Many of the issues treated here have a backdrop in my book Complex Strategic Choices – Applying Systemic Planning...... to this application area. In fact a company relocation decision case has been used to introduce the potential of SP as regards providing decision support for strategic decision making. A main concern in this presentation of SP, which deviates from the Springer book referred to above, is to highlight that ‘greening...

  10. Strategic facility planning improves capital decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, J R

    2001-03-01

    A large, Midwestern IDS undertook a strategic facility-planning process to evaluate its facility portfolio and determine how best to allocate future investments in facility development. The IDS assembled a facility-planning team, which initiated the planning process with a market analysis to determine future market demands and identify service areas that warranted facility expansion. The team then analyzed each of the IDS's facilities from the perspective of uniform capacity measurements, highest and best use compared with needs, building condition and investment-worthiness, and facility growth and site development opportunities. Based on results of the analysis, the strategy adopted entailed, in part, shifting some space from inpatient care to ambulatory care services and demolishing and replacing the 11 percent of facilities deemed to be in the worst condition.

  11. Neural Basis of Strategic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Daeyeol; Seo, Hyojung

    2016-01-01

    Human choice behaviors during social interactions often deviate from the predictions of game theory. This might arise partly from the limitations in the cognitive abilities necessary for recursive reasoning about the behaviors of others. In addition, during iterative social interactions, choices might change dynamically as knowledge about the intentions of others and estimates for choice outcomes are incrementally updated via reinforcement learning. Some of the brain circuits utilized during social decision making might be general-purpose and contribute to isomorphic individual and social decision making. By contrast, regions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and temporal parietal junction (TPJ) might be recruited for cognitive processes unique to social decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The Internet and the Banks' Strategic Distribution Channel Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mols, Niels Peter

    1998-01-01

    Discusses two strategic distribution channel decisions facing banks, one regarding whether to target the Internet banking segment of customers versus the branch banking segment, and the other regarding the geographical area banks aim to serve. Future distribution channels, the change process, and local, national, and international strategies are…

  13. The building of strategic information service in nuclear field facing to decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yong; Xue Enjie; Yuan Huibin

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To study the structure of strategic information service system in nuclear field for decision making supporting. Methods: Investigating and studying the strategic information systems at different levels-domestic and overseas, regional and national, governmental and industrial as well as information departmental, putting forward the envisioning of strategic information service system in nuclear field. Results: The system is consisted of three parts: data part, data operating part using IT technology and service function part. The system can produce varied information outputs automatically based on rich information resources and IT technology under mathematical models. The information workers can analyze and study special strategic information needed based on this system. Conclusions: The envisioning for the system structure is feasible and it can be realized at present technology level. The service effect will be visible and the supporting to decision making will be weighty. (authors)

  14. Building consensus in strategic decision-making : system dynamics as a group support system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vennix, J.A.M.

    1995-01-01

    System dynamics was originally founded as a method for modeling and simulating the behavior of industrial systems. In recent years it is increasingly employed as a Group Support System for strategic decision-making groups. The model is constructed in direct interaction with a management team, and

  15. Modeling strategic interaction with application to environmental engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dagnino, A.

    1987-01-01

    The main purpose of this thesis is to develop practical decision models for use in the analysis of complex strategic interaction situations. Following the presentation of the different bargain in models that have been developed previously, an algorithm that formally defines, models, and analyzes the cooperation present in strategic interaction is given. In addition to other valuable information, the algorithm predicts the compromise solutions to complex disputes and how a given decision maker can select a strategy to reach a preferable solution. To model misconceptions of decision makers involved in strategic interaction situations, a cooperative hypergame model is developed. Then a computerized algorithm that handles preference information of decision makers involved in strategic interaction is presented. This model allows one to perform exhaustive sensitivity analyses in an efficient and quick manner. Following this, practical decision algorithms useful for mediators seeking for joint solutions are presented. These mediation models allow the study and development of compromise zones among decision makers taking part in a dispute.

  16. Strategic-decision quality in public organizations : an information processing perspective

    OpenAIRE

    George, Bert; Desmidt, Sebastian

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis study draws on information processing theory to investigate predictors of strategic-decision quality in public organizations. Information processing theory argues that (a) rational planning practices contribute to strategic-decision quality by injecting information into decision making and (b) decision makers contribute to strategic-decision quality by exchanging information during decision making. These assumptions are tested upon 55 Flemish pupil guidance centers. Rational ...

  17. Improvements to Air Force Strategic Basing Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    24th Air Force need to have locations in Silicon 36 Valley or Northern Virginia to draw on the existing cyber industrial bases. Similarly, an issue...cross valuation . Cross valuation results in a simpler model than if GBM were allowed to run until it achieved a perfect fit. In ten-fold cross... valuation , the dataset is randomly split into ten mutually exclusive subsets. The model is fit on nine-tenths of the data, and that model is used to 62

  18. Strategic Assessment Model and Its Application:a Case Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Xiu-wen; CAO Meng-xia; ZHU Ning; ZUO M1ng-j1an

    2001-01-01

    Accurate and effective assessment of strategic alternatives of an organization directly affects the decision-making and execution of its development strategy. In evaluation of strategic alternatives, relevant elements from both internal and external environments of an organization must be considered. In this paper we use strategic assessment model to evaluate strategic alternatives of an air-conditioning company. Strategic objectives and alternatives of the company are developed through analysis of the competitive environment,key competitors and internal conditions. The environment factors are classified into internal, task, and general opportunities and threats. Analytical hierarchy process, subjective probabilities, entropy concept,and utility theory are used to enhance decision-maker's ability in evaluating strategic alternatives. The evaluation results show that the most effective strategic alternative for the company is to reduce types of products, concentrate its effort on producing window-type and cupboard-type air-conditioners, enlarge the production scale, and pre-empt the market. The company has made great progress by implementing this alternative. We conclude that SAM is an appropriate tool for evaluating strategic alternatives.

  19. Building consensus in strategic decision-making : system dynamics as a group support system

    OpenAIRE

    Vennix, J.A.M.

    1995-01-01

    System dynamics was originally founded as a method for modeling and simulating the behavior of industrial systems. In recent years it is increasingly employed as a Group Support System for strategic decision-making groups. The model is constructed in direct interaction with a management team, and the procedure is generally referred to as group model-building. The model can be conceptual (qualitative) or a full-blown (quantitative) computer simulation model. In this article, a case is describe...

  20. The strategic labor allocation proces : a model of strategic HRM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bax, Erik H.

    2002-01-01

    In this article the Strategic Labor Allocation Process model (SLAP) is described. The model relates HR-strategies to structure, culture and task technology to HR-policies like recruitment, appraisal and rewarding, to business strategy and to socio-cultural, economic, institutional and technological

  1. Big Data: A Toll for all Strategic Decisions : A Study of Three Large Food and Beverage Processing Organizations

    OpenAIRE

    Arsenovic, Jasenko

    2015-01-01

    I will look at what impact big data have had on the managerial strategic decisions in the food and beverage industry. This in order to understand the complexity and theory of organizational strategic management, an effort to define the contemporary strategic theory into a holistic conceptual model is done through a literature review on organizational strategy. This literature explicitly proposes four distinctly different types of strategies that management need to consider in the organization...

  2. Strategic issues in information technology international implications for decision makers

    CERN Document Server

    Schütte, Hellmut

    1988-01-01

    Strategic Issues in Information Technology: International Implications for Decision Makers presents the significant development of information technology in the output of components, computers, and communication equipment and systems. This book discusses the integration of information technology into factories and offices to increase productivity.Organized into six parts encompassing 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the advancement towards an automated interpretation communication system to achieve real international communication. This text then examines the main determining

  3. The Role of Implicit Motives in Strategic Decision-Making: Computational Models of Motivated Learning and the Evolution of Motivated Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Individual behavioral differences in humans have been linked to measurable differences in their mental activities, including differences in their implicit motives. In humans, individual differences in the strength of motives such as power, achievement and affiliation have been shown to have a significant impact on behavior in social dilemma games and during other kinds of strategic interactions. This paper presents agent-based computational models of power-, achievement- and affiliation-motivated individuals engaged in game-play. The first model captures learning by motivated agents during strategic interactions. The second model captures the evolution of a society of motivated agents. It is demonstrated that misperception, when it is a result of motivation, causes agents with different motives to play a given game differently. When motivated agents who misperceive a game are present in a population, higher explicit payoff can result for the population as a whole. The implications of these results are discussed, both for modeling human behavior and for designing artificial agents with certain salient behavioral characteristics.

  4. A Strategic Systems Model for Effective Recruiting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woolever, Daniel

    2003-01-01

    .... After introducing a model for effective and efficient recruiting, this Strategic Research Project describes the Air Force recruiting organizational structure, management processes and practices...

  5. How do strategic decisions and operative practices affect operating room productivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltokorpi, Antti

    2011-12-01

    Surgical operating rooms are cost-intensive parts of health service production. Managing operating units efficiently is essential when hospitals and healthcare systems aim to maximize health outcomes with limited resources. Previous research about operating room management has focused on studying the effect of management practices and decisions on efficiency by utilizing mainly modeling approach or before-after analysis in single hospital case. The purpose of this research is to analyze the synergic effect of strategic decisions and operative management practices on operating room productivity and to use a multiple case study method enabling statistical hypothesis testing with empirical data. 11 hypotheses that propose connections between the use of strategic and operative practices and productivity were tested in a multi-hospital study that included 26 units. The results indicate that operative practices, such as personnel management, case scheduling and performance measurement, affect productivity more remarkably than do strategic decisions that relate to, e.g., units' size, scope or academic status. Units with different strategic positions should apply different operative practices: Focused hospital units benefit most from sophisticated case scheduling and parallel processing whereas central and ambulatory units should apply flexible working hours, incentives and multi-skilled personnel. Operating units should be more active in applying management practices which are adequate for their strategic orientation.

  6. Modelling decision-making by pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Nicholas J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Our scientific goal is to understand the process of human decision-making. Specifically, a model of human decision-making in piloting modern commercial aircraft which prescribes optimal behavior, and against which we can measure human sub-optimality is sought. This model should help us understand such diverse aspects of piloting as strategic decision-making, and the implicit decisions involved in attention allocation. Our engineering goal is to provide design specifications for (1) better computer-based decision-aids, and (2) better training programs for the human pilot (or human decision-maker, DM).

  7. Evolving neural networks for strategic decision-making problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Nate; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2009-04-01

    Evolution of neural networks, or neuroevolution, has been a successful approach to many low-level control problems such as pole balancing, vehicle control, and collision warning. However, certain types of problems-such as those involving strategic decision-making-have remained difficult for neuroevolution to solve. This paper evaluates the hypothesis that such problems are difficult because they are fractured: The correct action varies discontinuously as the agent moves from state to state. A method for measuring fracture using the concept of function variation is proposed and, based on this concept, two methods for dealing with fracture are examined: neurons with local receptive fields, and refinement based on a cascaded network architecture. Experiments in several benchmark domains are performed to evaluate how different levels of fracture affect the performance of neuroevolution methods, demonstrating that these two modifications improve performance significantly. These results form a promising starting point for expanding neuroevolution to strategic tasks.

  8. Eco-driving : strategic, tactical, and operational decisions of the driver that improve vehicle fuel economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    "This report presents information about the effects of decisions that a driver can make to : influence on-road fuel economy of light-duty vehicles. These include strategic decisions : (vehicle selection and maintenance), tactical decisions (route sel...

  9. Strategic Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation....... This model incorporates elements of central strategizing, autonomous entrepreneurial behavior, interactive information processing, and open communication systems that enhance the organization's ability to observe exogenous changes and respond effectively to them....

  10. Strategic decisions on research for advanced reactors: USNRS perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.

    2008-01-01

    This document provided a perspective on strategic decision on research for advanced reactors. He pointed out that advanced reactors are fundamentally different from LWR and that regulatory tools currently available (e.g. codes and data) will not be applicable to advanced designs. He stated that international co-operation is the only practical way to work together for identifying needed capabilities and tools, including the use of industry facilities. He proposed that, in consideration of its good experience at coordinating research, the CSNI establishes a task group to identify and prioritize research needs. (author)

  11. Institutional constraints on strategic maneuvering in shared decision medical decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snoeck Henkemans, A.F.; Mohammed, D.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper it is first investigated to what extent the institutional goal and basic principles of shared decision making are compatible with the aim and rules for critical discussion. Next, some techniques that doctors may use to present their own treatment preferences strategically in a shared

  12. A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    . The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision....... The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.......This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character...

  13. A STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Andreea ZAMFIR

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a knowledge-based strategic management of services model, with a view to emphasise an approach to gaining competitive advantage through knowledge, people and networking. The long-term evolution of the service organization is associated with the way in which the strategic management is practised.

  14. A strategic review of electricity systems models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, A.M.; O Gallachoir, B.P.; McKeogh, E.J.; Hur, J.; Baldick, R.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity systems models are software tools used to manage electricity demand and the electricity systems, to trade electricity and for generation expansion planning purposes. Various portfolios and scenarios are modelled in order to compare the effects of decision making in policy and on business development plans in electricity systems so as to best advise governments and industry on the least cost economic and environmental approach to electricity supply, while maintaining a secure supply of sufficient quality electricity. The modelling techniques developed to study vertically integrated state monopolies are now applied in liberalised markets where the issues and constraints are more complex. This paper reviews the changing role of electricity systems modelling in a strategic manner, focussing on the modelling response to key developments, the move away from monopoly towards liberalised market regimes and the increasing complexity brought about by policy targets for renewable energy and emissions. The paper provides an overview of electricity systems modelling techniques, discusses a number of key proprietary electricity systems models used in the USA and Europe and provides an information resource to the electricity analyst not currently readily available in the literature on the choice of model to investigate different aspects of the electricity system. (author)

  15. The Effect of Affect on Economic and Strategic Decision Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Benjamin E. Hermalin and Alice M. Isen.

    1999-01-01

    The standard economic model of decision making assumes a decision maker makes her choices to maximize her utility or happiness. Her current emotional state is not explicitly considered. Yet there is a large psychological literature that shows that current emotional state, in particular positive affect, has a significant effect on decision making. This paper offers a way to incorporate this insight from psychology into economic modeling. Moreover, this paper shows that this simple insight can ...

  16. Strategic Decision Making Cycle in Higher Education: Case Study of E-Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divjak, Blaženka; Redep, Nina Begicevic

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology for strategic decision making in higher education (HE). The methodology is structured as a cycle of strategic decision making with four phases, and it is focused on institutional and national perspective, i.e. on decision making that takes place at institutions of HE and relevant national authorities, in case…

  17. Strategic Decision-Making by Deans in Academic Health Centers: A Framework Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeney, Brianne

    2012-01-01

    This study examines strategic decision-making at the college level in relation to seven theoretical frames. Strategic decisions are those made by top executives, have wide-ranging influence throughout the organization, affect the long-term future of the organization, and are connected to the external environment. The seven decision-making frames…

  18. Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks: Modeling strategic behavior in human-automation interaction: Why and aid can (and should) go unused

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirlik, Alex

    1991-01-01

    Advances in computer and control technology offer the opportunity for task-offload aiding in human-machine systems. A task-offload aid (e.g., an autopilot, an intelligent assistant) can be selectively engaged by the human operator to dynamically delegate tasks to an automated system. Successful design and performance prediction in such systems requires knowledge of the factors influencing the strategy the operator develops and uses for managing interaction with the task-offload aid. A model is presented that shows how such strategies can be predicted as a function of three task context properties (frequency and duration of secondary tasks and costs of delaying secondary tasks) and three aid design properties (aid engagement and disengagement times, aid performance relative to human performance). Sensitivity analysis indicates how each of these contextual and design factors affect the optimal aid aid usage strategy and attainable system performance. The model is applied to understanding human-automation interaction in laboratory experiments on human supervisory control behavior. The laboratory task allowed subjects freedom to determine strategies for using an autopilot in a dynamic, multi-task environment. Modeling results suggested that many subjects may indeed have been acting appropriately by not using the autopilot in the way its designers intended. Although autopilot function was technically sound, this aid was not designed with due regard to the overall task context in which it was placed. These results demonstrate the need for additional research on how people may strategically manage their own resources, as well as those provided by automation, in an effort to keep workload and performance at acceptable levels.

  19. Improvements to Strategic Planning and Implementation through Enhanced Correlation with Decision-Making Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCready, John W.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine use of decision-making tools and feedback in strategic planning in order to develop a rigorous process that would promote the efficiency of strategic planning for acquisitions in the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Strategic planning is critical to agencies such as the USCG in order to be effective…

  20. Management challenges at the intersection of public policy environments and strategic decision making in public hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longest, Beaufort B

    2012-01-01

    Hospitals in the United States are heavily impacted by public policies that affect them. For example, Medicare and Medicaid programs account for more than half the revenue in most of the nation's almost 5,000 community hospitals, including the almost 1,100 public hospitals controlled by state and local governments (American Hospital Association, 2012). The public hospitals are especially closely aligned with and controlled by governmental entities compared with hospitals with other kinds of sponsorship. This article addresses the management challenges at the intersection of the strategic management of public hospitals and their public policy environments. Public hospitals are complicated entities designed not only to provide health services but also in many cases to play key roles in health-related research and education and to play important general economic development roles in their communities. The multi-faceted strategic decision making in these organizations is as heavily affected by their public policy environments as by their business, demographic, technological or other external environments. Effectively managing the intersection of their public policy environments and their strategic management is indeed vital for contemporary public hospitals. This article is intended to clarify certain aspects of this intersection through a description and model of the strategic activity in public hospitals and the connection between this activity and their external environments. Specific attention is focused on the concept of public policy environments and their features. Attention is also given to how managers can assess public policy environments and incorporate the results into strategic activities.

  1. Strategic Decisions and Implications of the German Assault on Norway in 1940

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Amundsen, Steinar

    2005-01-01

    .... Dismissing one-dimensional theories on the decisions for and strategic implications of the German attack on Norway, this paper discusses underlying factors in the German decision-making process...

  2. Influences of context and culture on singaporean strategic investment decision making practises

    OpenAIRE

    Soh, Li Khee Christine

    2014-01-01

    This thesis investigates the interplay of context with culture on strategic investment decision (SID) making practises in strategic management accounting, strategic management, cross cultural management and global strategic management research in Singapore using three research questions. These research questions commence from an inter-country perspective on SID making and narrow down to the theme of foreign versus domestic investments. The three research questions are: Re...

  3. Extending Ansoff’s Strategic Diagnosis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Kipley

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the complex and disruptive open-ended dynamics in the current dynamic global environment, senior management recognizes the need for a formalized, consistent, and comprehensive framework to analyze the firm’s strategic posture. Modern assessment tools, such as H. Igor Ansoff’s seminal contributions to strategic diagnosis, primarily focused on identifying and enhancing the firm’s strategic performance potential through the analysis of the industry’s environmental turbulence level relative to the firm’s aggressiveness and responsiveness of capability. Other epistemic modeling techniques envisage Porter’s generic strategic positions, Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT, and Resource-Based View as useful methodologies to aid in the planning process. All are complex and involve multiple managerial perspectives. Over the last two decades, attempts have been made to comprehensively classify the firm’s future competitive position. Most of these proposals utilized matrices to depict the position, such as the Boston Consulting Group, point positioning, and dispersed positioning. The GE/McKinsey later enhanced this typology by expanding to 3 × 3, contributing to management’s deeper understanding of the firm’s position. Both types of assessments, Ansoff’s strategic diagnosis and positional matrices, are invaluable strategic tools for firms. However, it could be argued that these positional analyses singularly reflect a blind spot in modeling the firm’s future strategic performance potential, as neither considers the interactions of the other. This article is conceptual and takes a different approach from earlier methodologies. Although conceptual, the article aims to present a robust model combining Ansoff’s strategic diagnosis with elements of the performance matrices to provide the management with an enriched capability to evaluate the firm’s current and future performance position.

  4. Strategic Decision-Making and Social Skills: Integrating Behavioral Economics and Social Cognition Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Leder

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decisions are affected by beliefs about the expectations of others and their possible decisions. Thus, strategic decisions are influenced by the social context and by beliefs about other actors’ levels of sophistication. The present study investigated whether strategic decision-making, as measured by the beauty contest game, is associated with social skills, as measured by the Autism Quotient (AQ. In line with our hypothesis, we found that social skills were positively related to successful strategic decision-making. Furthermore, results showed a curvilinear relationship between steps of reasoning in the beauty contest game and social skills, indicating that very high as well as very low scoring individuals on the social skills subscale of the AQ engaged in high-levels of strategic thinking.

  5. Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

    2014-02-01

    To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Strategic Decision Making in Community Colleges: An Exploration of Issues Relevant to Decision Making to Confer Community College Baccalaureate Degrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currier, Charles W.

    2012-01-01

    This qualitative case study explores the process community college senior administrators employ when assessing the complex strategic decision to confer community college baccalaureate degrees. Strategic opportunities, such as conferring baccalaureate degrees, occur infrequently thus community college leaders must be prepared to act quickly and…

  7. The Research in Top Management Team Strategic Decision-Making: evolution and intelectual basis

    OpenAIRE

    Bernardo Paraiso de Campos Serra; Fernando Ribeiro Serra; Patricia Tomei

    2014-01-01

    This article aims to understand the intellectual structure that connects theories and authors that research strategic decision-making on upper echelons and propose a research agenda for future research on strategic decision-making. We used a bibliometric research of articles published in international journals. A bibliometric analysis of citation and cocitation was conducted on the content studied in the articles of decision making, identifying the most referenced works and the conceptual rel...

  8. Strategic Decision Making for Organizational Sustainability: The Implications of Servant Leadership and Sustainable Leadership Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Judita Peterlin; Noel J. Pearse; Vlado Dimovski

    2015-01-01

    This conceptual paper explores the implications of servant leadership and sustainable leadership for strategic decision making by the top management of an organization. It is argued that a different type of leadership is required if effective strategic decisions are to be made in organizations striving to become more sustainable and that servant leadership and sustainable leadership approaches provide a sound basis to inform these decisions. The contributions of these two leadership approache...

  9. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  10. Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn

    The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

  11. Innovation, Technology and Decision Making: A Perspective for Strategic Action in Firms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenburg, Gerald M.

    2002-01-01

    Innovation, technology, and the making of decisions are tightly intertwined in what can generally be called, strategic decision making. Although true for all firms, it is especially true in innovative, high technology firms that operate in a turbulent, fast moving environment where strategic decisions must be made accurately and quickly to survive. This paper looks at some factors reported in the literature that affect how and why the strategic decision process is so important, especially in companies in fast-moving, competitive environments. The work of several prominent authors who looked critically at past theory and research, and the current state of knowledge and practice, provides a perspective of how firms make strategic decisions.

  12. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost-Benefit...

  13. Connecting engineering operations to strategic management: a framework for decision making in engineering offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2012-01-01

    of the organisation. The Global Decision-Making (GDM) framework described here is a decision-making framework for engineering offshoring decisions for product development activities. The framework proposes that risks in engineering offshoring can be reduced by connecting engineering operations to strategic management...

  14. Strategic innovation decisions : What you Forsee is not what you get

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moenaert, R.K.; Robben, H.S.J.; Antioco, M.; Schaap, H.

    2010-01-01

    This research attempts to (1) identify the factors that influence strategic decision making (i.e., a choice made among various strategic options), and (2) establish their relative importance in the context of new product development. Hence, this study's research question is formulated as follows:

  15. CULTURAL STUDIES: INSTITUTIONAL CRISIS OR THE TIME OF STRATEGIC DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Ya. Murzina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this investigation is to signify of the problems of cultural studies as a science and educational practice in a situation of modernization of education. The publication continues the discussion started at the alignment meeting of Heads of Cultural Studies Departments in Russia – «The science of culture and cultural education: time for strategic decisions». Methods. The author has applied the following methods: analysis of existing points of view; reflection of the essence of the cultural knowledge and perspectives of cultural development of cultural studies science in Russia. Results. The research outcomes show that cultural studies in modern Russia are experiencing institutional crisis: insufficient definiteness and awareness by experts and publicity due to places and roles of culturological disciplines in educational process, but also the methodological bases of activity of culturologists. Aspects of culturological formation are considered and prospects of its development are specified. It was proposed to continue the discussion started at the alignment meeting of Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia, and it will give an option to discuss the solution ways of current recessionary situation more fundamentally and subjectively on territory-regional level. Scientific novelty. The approaches to understanding the culture as areas of scientific knowledge are methodized; the areas of cultural education in the conditions of modernization are summarized. Practical significance. The research implementations can be used while improving the theoretical-methodological component of cultural education, and extending the horizons for topical current research works in the field of cultural studies. 

  16. Coal-Mine Liquidation as a Strategic Managerial Decision: a Decision-Making Model Based on the Options Approach / Likwidacja Kopalni Jako Strategiczna Decyzja Menedżerska: Model Decyzyjny Z Wykorzystaniem Podejścia Opcyjnego

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewartowski, Tomasz; Mizerka, Jacek; Mróz, Cezary

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal time of coal mine liquidation given the necessity of bearing the costs of post-mining reclamation. In order to consider the volatility of parameters important for making a liquidation decision and the entrepreneur's flexibility in the decision-making process, the real options approach was applied. Mine liquidation, which is inextricably linked to post-mining reclamation, is examined as an American put option on the market value of continuing the mine's operation which plays the role of the underlying asset. In turn, the role of the exercise price is played by expenditures for mine liquidation and post-mining reclamation, which can be avoided if the decision to close the mine is taken before all the deposits are exhausted. The liquidation option is exercised when the value of liquidation and reclamation cost savings significantly exceeds the continuation value. Mine liquidation was additionally made conditional on the value of funds accumulated to finance post-mining reclamation. Artykuł dotyczy ustalenia optymalnego momentu likwidacji kopalni w związku z koniecznością ponoszenia kosztów rekultywacji gruntów pokopalnianych. W celu uwzględnienia zmienności wartości parametrów istotnych dla podjęcia decyzji o likwidacji oraz elastyczności w podejmowaniu decyzji przez przedsiębiorcę, wykorzystano podejście opcyjne. Likwidację kopalni, która jest nierozłącznie związana z rekultywacją terenów pokopalnianych, rozpatruje się jako amerykańską opcję sprzedaży (put) wystawioną na rynkową wartość kontynuacji działalności kopalni pełniącą rolę instrumentu bazowego. Z kolei rolę ceny wykonania odgrywają nakłady na likwidację kopalni i rekultywację terenów pokopalnianych, poniesienia których można uniknąć, gdy decyzja o wstrzymaniu eksploatacji zapadnie przed wyczerpaniem się złoża. Opcja likwidacji jest wykonywana, gdy kwota nakładów na likwidację i rekultywację znacz

  17. Stress and strategic decision-making in the beauty contest game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leder, Johannes; Häusser, Jan Alexander; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2013-09-01

    Often, economic decisions do not only depend on one's own preferences, but also on the choices of others and therefore require strategizing (i.e., thinking about what others might think). In experimental economics, this has been modeled by the beauty contest game. Another typical feature of economic decisions is that they are often carried out under stress. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to examine the influence of stress on decision-making in the beauty contest game. Participants were randomly assigned to either the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups (TSST-G) or a placebo version of the TSST-G (control condition). Then, participants played four rounds of a standard beauty contest game. As a biomarker of stress, salivary cortisol was measured. As predicted, participants under stress chose higher numbers in the beauty contest game than non-stressed participants, indicating less strategizing. This effect was mediated by the stress-induced increase in cortisol. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Swords of armageddon: A decision of the strategic mystique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, G.E.

    1987-01-01

    To most Americans, our military and civilian political leaders included, the concept of strategic bombardment brings to mind a myopic vision of nuclear horror; and the long-range delivery systems most commonly associated with strategic warfare--the bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles--are not supported either by a review of the history of modern warfare or by current statements of air power doctrine, but they persist as a legacy of the destructiveness of the World War II strategic air campaigns and the enduring Soviet-American nuclear confrontation. This paper attempts to dispell these notions and advance a concept of flexibility in strategic force application and US strategic policy formulation. It suggests that individual strategic actions have relevance in large and small, nuclear or nonnuclear wars and that our bombers and even our intercontinental missiles can and should be considered as viable force options in a variety of scenarios. The discussion concludes that strategic attack has historically been and will continue to be an active military mission that can be accomplished in numerous ways by a wide variety of weapons and delivery systems despite a continuing mystique of nuclear holocaust.

  19. The Responders’ Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers playing the Ultimatum Game

    OpenAIRE

    Fabre, Eve Floriane; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts’ stereotypical identity (i.e., responders). The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypical...

  20. Putting health metrics into practice: using the disability-adjusted life year for strategic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longfield, Kim; Smith, Brian; Gray, Rob; Ngamkitpaiboon, Lek; Vielot, Nadja

    2013-01-01

    resulted in more targeted strategies and greater program diversification. Challenges remain in convincing donors to support interventions in disease areas that are relevant to a country's BOD, and in developing modeling methodologies. The global health community will benefit from the use of standard health impact metrics to improve strategic decision making and more effectively respond to the changing global burden of disease.

  1. Simulation Modelling and Strategic Change: Creating the Sustainable Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Dawson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the benefits of using discrete event simulation models for developing change management frameworks which facilitate productivity and environmental improvements in order to create a sustainable enterprise. There is an increasing need for organisations to be more socially and environmentally responsible, however these objectives cannot be realised in isolation of the strategic, operations and business objectives of the enterprise. Discrete Event Simulation models facilitate a multidimensional approach to enterprise modelling which can integrate operations and strategic considerations with environmental and social issues. Moreover these models can provide a dynamic roadmap for implementing a change strategy for realising the optimal conditions for operational and environmental performance. It is important to note that the nature of change is itself dynamic and that simulation models are capable of characterising the dynamics of the change process. The paper argues that incorporating social and environmental challenges into a strategic business model for an enterprise can result in improved profits and long term viability and that a multidimensional simulation approach can support decision making throughout the change process to more effectively achieve these goals.

  2. Strategic decisions in turbulent times: lessons from the energy industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giones, Ferran; Brem, Alexander; Berger, Andreas

    2019-01-01

    of time, traditional business models eroded, and dominant players lost their positions in the industry. Based on personal interviews with the CEOs from RWE (Germany) and NRG (USA) we analyze how they led the transformation of their organizations. We get immersed in their decision-making processes......Most of the firms currently in the S&P 500 will probably not be part of this list in 15 years. In times of great uncertainty managers are called to make the right choices in their strategy, they are asked to preserve the core businesses, and to prepare their organizations for an unclear future. How...... can managers make the right choices when the whole industry is under transformation? In this light, we explore how the popular VUCA framework can help to make sense of turbulent contexts and drive the decision-making of managers. We study the case of the energy industry, where, in a short period...

  3. 胜在战略决策,赢在战略思维——论《孙子兵法》战略思维与企业战略管理%Win in Strategic Decision-making, Victory in Strategic Thinking --On the Strategic Thinking of The Art of War and Business Strategic Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨新

    2011-01-01

    The Art of War is not only the oldest of war and strategic theory writings,but also an excellent work of military philosophy and strategic thinking.Its profound strategic culture,scientific strategic thinking,high level strategic planning and sophisticated art of strategic thinking are undoubtedly beneficial to the scientific strategic management of modern businesses.From the perspective of strategic values of strategic thinking,strategic thinking model and method,and the strategic thinking realms in The Art of War,the paper explores of the essence of "win in strategic thinking,victory in strategic decision-making"in business strategic management%《孙子兵法》既是现存最古老的战争与战略理论著作,也是优秀的军事哲学和战略思维著作。其深厚的战略文化底蕴、科学的战略思维方式、至高的战略谋划境界和精妙的战略思维艺术,无疑对现代企业战略管理具有科学的借鉴。从《孙子兵法》战略思维的战略价值观、战略思维模式与方法及战略思维境界等方面,探讨了企业战略管理"胜在战略决策、赢在战略思维"的真谛

  4. An Integrative Model of the Strategic Management Accounting at the Enterprises of Chemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Vasilyevna Glushchenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the issues of information and analytical support of strategic management enabling to take timely and high-quality management decisions, are extremely relevant. Conflicting and poor information, haphazard collected in the practice of large companies from unreliable sources, affects the effective implementation of their development strategies and carries the threat of risk, by the increasing instability of the external environment. Thus chemical industry is one of the central places in the industry of Russia and, of course, has its specificity in the formation of the informationsupport system. Such an information system suitable for the development and implementation of strategic directions, changes in recognized competitive advantages of strategic management accounting. The issues of the lack of requirements for strategic accounting information, its inconsistency in the result of simultaneous accumulation in different parts and using different methods of calculation and assessment of indicators is impossible without a well-constructed model of organization of strategic management accounting. The purpose of this study is to develop such a model, the implementation of which will allow realizing the possibility of achieving strategic goals by harmonizing information from the individual objects of the strategic account to increase the functional effectiveness of management decisions with a focus on strategy. Case study was based on dialectical logic and methods of system analysis, and identifying causal relationships in building a model of strategic management accounting that contributes to the forecasts of its development. The study proposed to implement an integrative model of organization of strategic management accounting. The purpose of a phased implementation of this model defines the objects and tools of strategic management accounting. Moreover, it is determined that from the point of view of increasing the usefulness of management

  5. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex affects strategic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van 't Wout, Mascha; Kahn, René S; Sanfey, Alan G; Aleman, André

    2005-11-07

    Although decision-making is typically seen as a rational process, emotions play a role in tasks that include unfairness. Recently, activation in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during offers experienced as unfair in the Ultimatum Game was suggested to subserve goal maintenance in this task. This is restricted to correlational evidence, however, and it remains unclear whether the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is crucial for strategic decision-making. The present study used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in order to investigate the causal role of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in strategic decision-making in the Ultimatum Game. The results showed that repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex resulted in an altered decision-making strategy compared with sham stimulation. We conclude that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is causally implicated in strategic decision-making in healthy human study participants.

  6. Strategic management accounting and decision making: A survey of the Nigerian Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins S. Oboh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts an empirical examination of the practicality of strategic management accounting (SMA adoption in banks in Nigeria, a developing country. It investigates the extent of practice and contributions of SMA to strategic decision making. Survey data were obtained from 71 bank managers across 20 registered banks in Nigeria. Simple regression estimation technique and Pearson Chi-square test were used for data analysis. The results suggest that SMA is distinct in its features and orientation towards the practice of management accounting. The study found out that banks in Nigeria practice SMA; not as a concept, but as a principle of operation, and that SMA contributes significantly to strategic decision making in the area of competitive advantage and increased market share. The study offers value for banks in other developing economies in that it supports the argument that they can benefit from SMA adoption as part of banking strategies. Keywords: Strategic management accounting, Decision making, Market share, Banks, Nigeria

  7. Developing a Strategic Leadership Model for the Military Chaplaincy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Steedley, Kerry

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this strategy research project was to define strategic leadership, to describe spiritual leadership, and to develop a model of strategic-spiritual leadership for the U.S. Army Chaplaincy...

  8. Strategic Alliance Development - A Process Model A Case Study Integrating Elements of Strategic Alliances

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Yunos, Mohd Bulkiah

    2007-01-01

    There has been enormous increase in the formation of strategic alliance and the research efforts devoted to understanding alliance development process over the last few decades. However, the critical elements that influence the each stage of alliance development are yet unexplored. This dissertation aims to fill this gap and to supplement it by introducing an integrated process model of strategic alliance development and its critical elements. The process model for strategic alliance developm...

  9. Strategic Leadership Primer (Third Edition)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    decision making � STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING Strategic Change There are several strategic decisions that involved...The Ontology of Strategic Decision Making Strategic decisions are non-routine and involve both the art of leadership and the science of management...building consensus,”5 implicitly requires the capacity for strategic decision making� The Complexity of Strategic Decision Making Strategic

  10. Strategic planning decision making using fuzzy SWOT-TOPSIS with reliability factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Daud; Afandi, Nur Syamimi; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

    2015-10-01

    Strategic planning is a process of decision making and action for long-term activities in an organization. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis has been commonly used to help organizations in strategizing their future direction by analyzing internal and external environment. However, SWOT analysis has some limitations as it is unable to prioritize appropriately the multiple alternative strategic decisions. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem by incorporating Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Nevertheless, another important aspect has raised concerns on obtaining the decision that is the reliability of the information. Decision makers evaluate differently depending on their level of confidence or sureness in the evaluation. This study proposes a decision making procedure for strategic planning using SWOT-TOPSIS method by incorporating the reliability factor of the evaluation based on Z-number. An example using a local authority in the east coast of Malaysia is illustrated to determine the strategic options ranking and to prioritize factors in each SWOT category.

  11. How strategic considerations influence decision making on e-HRM applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schalk, R.; Timmerman, V.; van den Heuvel, S.R.H.

    2013-01-01

    Although numerous studies indicate that the added value of human resource management is strongest when HRM decisions are linked to the organizational strategy, practical knowledge about how strategic considerations influence decision-making processes relating to e-HRM is limited. Therefore, the

  12. Strategic Decision Making for Organizational Sustainability: The Implications of Servant Leadership and Sustainable Leadership Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judita Peterlin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This conceptual paper explores the implications of servant leadership and sustainable leadership for strategic decision making by the top management of an organization. It is argued that a different type of leadership is required if effective strategic decisions are to be made in organizations striving to become more sustainable and that servant leadership and sustainable leadership approaches provide a sound basis to inform these decisions. The contributions of these two leadership approaches are explored, before considering the implications for leadership development. Particularly, the inclusion in leadership development programmes of values based leadership, and the development of integrative thinking, is discussed.

  13. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  14. Essentials of Risk Management. Strategic Decisions. Board Basics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonenstein, Burton; Kumin, Laura A.

    1998-01-01

    This booklet, intended for trustees of institutions of higher education, offers some instruction on the principles of risk management. Introductory information provides a definition of risk management, which is seen as a planning and strategic function, not solely as a financial or safety assessment. Individual sections then address the following…

  15. A framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coteur, Ine, E-mail: ine.coteur@ilvo.vlaanderen.be [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); Marchand, Fleur [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); University of Antwerp, Ecosystem Management Research Group and IMDO, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Debruyne, Lies; Dalemans, Floris [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); Lauwers, Ludwig [Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO)-Social sciences Unit, Burg. Van Gansberghelaan 115, box 2, 9820 Merelbeke (Belgium); University of Ghent, Department of Agricultural Economics, Coupure Links 53, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2016-09-15

    Responding to future challenges and societal needs, various actions are taken in agriculture to evolve towards more sustainable farming practices. These actions imply strategic choices and suppose adequate sustainability assessments to identify, measure, evaluate and communicate sustainable development. However, literature is scarce on the link between strategic decision making and sustainability assessment. As questions emerge on how, what and when to measure, the objective of this paper is to construct a framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making. Qualitative research on own experiences from the past and a recent project revealed four categories of actual needs farmers, advisors and experts have regarding sustainability assessment: context, flexibility, focus on farm and farmer and communication. These stakeholders' needs are then incorporated into a two-dimensional framework that marries the intrinsic complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making. The framework allows a farm-specific and flexible approach leading to harmonized actions towards sustainable farming. As this framework is mainly a procedural instrument to guide the use of sustainability assessment tools within strategic decision making, it fits to incorporate, even guide, future research on sustainability assessment tools themselves and on their adoption on farms. - Highlights: • How to link sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making is unclear. • Two-dimensional framework incorporating stakeholders' needs regarding sustainability assessment • Linking complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making • Farm-specific and flexible approach to harmonize action towards sustainable farming.

  16. A framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coteur, Ine; Marchand, Fleur; Debruyne, Lies; Dalemans, Floris; Lauwers, Ludwig

    2016-01-01

    Responding to future challenges and societal needs, various actions are taken in agriculture to evolve towards more sustainable farming practices. These actions imply strategic choices and suppose adequate sustainability assessments to identify, measure, evaluate and communicate sustainable development. However, literature is scarce on the link between strategic decision making and sustainability assessment. As questions emerge on how, what and when to measure, the objective of this paper is to construct a framework for guiding sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making. Qualitative research on own experiences from the past and a recent project revealed four categories of actual needs farmers, advisors and experts have regarding sustainability assessment: context, flexibility, focus on farm and farmer and communication. These stakeholders' needs are then incorporated into a two-dimensional framework that marries the intrinsic complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making. The framework allows a farm-specific and flexible approach leading to harmonized actions towards sustainable farming. As this framework is mainly a procedural instrument to guide the use of sustainability assessment tools within strategic decision making, it fits to incorporate, even guide, future research on sustainability assessment tools themselves and on their adoption on farms. - Highlights: • How to link sustainability assessment and on-farm strategic decision making is unclear. • Two-dimensional framework incorporating stakeholders' needs regarding sustainability assessment • Linking complexity of sustainability assessment tools and the time frame of strategic decision making • Farm-specific and flexible approach to harmonize action towards sustainable farming

  17. Strategic analytics: towards fully embedding evidence in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garay, Jason; Cartagena, Rosario; Esensoy, Ali Vahit; Handa, Kiren; Kane, Eli; Kaw, Neal; Sadat, Somayeh

    2015-01-01

    Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) has implemented multiple information technology solutions and collected health-system data to support its programs. There is now an opportunity to leverage these data and perform advanced end-to-end analytics that inform decisions around improving health-system performance. In 2014, CCO engaged in an extensive assessment of its current data capacity and capability, with the intent to drive increased use of data for evidence-based decision-making. The breadth and volume of data at CCO uniquely places the organization to contribute to not only system-wide operational reporting, but more advanced modelling of current and future state system management and planning. In 2012, CCO established a strategic analytics practice to assist the agency's programs contextualize and inform key business decisions and to provide support through innovative predictive analytics solutions. This paper describes the organizational structure, services and supporting operations that have enabled progress to date, and discusses the next steps towards the vision of embedding evidence fully into healthcare decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

  18. Lexical Complexity of Decision-Making Writing Tasks: Form-focused Guided Strategic Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Mahdavirad, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of form-focused guided strategic planning on lexical complexity of learners’ performance in writing tasks. The twenty intermediate level participants of the study performed an unplanned and then a planned decision-making task. In the planned task condition, the participants were provided with form-focused guided strategic planning which contained detailed instructions about how to plan, by being instructed to focus on form. The guidanc...

  19. METHOD OF STRATEGIC PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING CONSIDERING THE LIFE CYCLE THEORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetiana Kniazieva

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the study is a set of theoretical and methodological aspects of development strategy formed for objects (country, region, branch, enterprise on the basis of the life cycles theory under the external environment uncertainty. The methodology of strategic planning under the external environment uncertainty with the consideration of the life cycle theory includes: the definition of key criteria for assessing the product lifecycle, the definition of the limits scope for the solvable problem, the definition of parameters of models stability, the formation of models for analysis, setting the problem under uncertainty, the mechanism of step-by-step adjustment, and effectiveness assessment of strategic decisions based on strategies, the algorithm for the integrated assessment of the strategies effectiveness taking into account the uncertainty factors. Strategic planning is not characterized by temporal intervals but by a set of strategies, each of which is determined by the ways of achieving the main object objectives. For a rapid analysis of the product life cycle, the external indicators are used, such as: the growth rate of the product market, the relative growth rate of the product (compared to the growth rate of the entire market of the region or country, the firm market share, the firm relative market share (compared to the market share of leading competitor, and internal indicators, such as: the dynamics of enterprise revenue by product, the dynamics of company profits by product, the dynamics of enterprise profitability by product, the dynamics of enterprise investment. For each indicator that describes the enterprise performance, the directions of change are taken: α – growth, const – constant or β – decrease. The methodology involves a certain sequence of studying the product life cycle in retrospect and at the current moment, then the modelling and development of options for short- and long-term strategies implementation

  20. Strategic Decision Making in Times of Global Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Gawlik, Remigiusz

    2009-01-01

    The presented paper is a brief presentation of findings based on research lead on a group of small and medium businesses. The study has been made in conditions of global financial crisis and its effects, such as fall of production volumes in numerous companies. A number of indexes describing the actual economic situation and short – term prospects of discussed businesses has been presented to their medium- and high level executives in order to point out those most useful when taking strategic...

  1. Identification and Evaluation of Strategic Decisions in Gas Industry Using DEMATEL Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Mehregan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the fluctuations of oil price in international markets and its effect on global economy, it is expected that gas industry and use of gas as an alternative energy, have become more important. Therefore, identification of strategic decisions in this industry has attracted increasing attention of managers and researchers. This study aims to identify and evaluate strategic decisions in the National Iranian Gas Company, using DEMATEL method for the first time. For data collection, paired comparison questionnaire have been used. The results of the research show that expanding operations to enter a new market, opening and starting up a new plant or facility, expansion of capacity and restructuring are respectively the most important strategic decisions in the industry.

  2. Changing environments or shifting paradigms? Strategic decision making toward water protection in Helsinki, 1850-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakkonen, Simo; Laurila, Sari

    2007-04-01

    The study examines the history of strategic decision-making concerning water protection in Helsinki, 1850-2000. We identified five major strategic decisions that occurred during the study period. The results indicate that strategic decision-making evolves in long-term policy cycles that last on average 20-30 years. New policy cycles are caused by paradigm shifts. Paradigms are shared and predominant ways of understanding reality that help when groups must act to solve common and complex environmental problems. However the internal structure and external dynamics of paradigms are contradictory. Although paradigms serve initially as means to redefine problems and find creative solutions, as time goes by each paradigm seems to become also a barrier that restricts the introduction of new ways of thinking and acting. The power of paradigms lies in the fact that they can be defined as scientific but also social, political, or cultural agreements depending on the context.

  3. Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-09-01

    Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The implications of ownership concentration for shareholder protection and strategic decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of corporate governance mechanisms is to prevent opportunistic behaviour by managers, in order to align the interests of owners and managers. Following from this, our research topic is the analysis of ownership concentration as an internal mechanism to protect the interests of shareholders. In the study of the interdependence between ownership concentration and shareholder protection, particular importance needs to be given to the relationship between ownership structure, the role of the board, and strategic decision-making. Starting from this interdependence, our research aim is to examine the impact of ownership concentration on the protection of shareholders’ interests and the board’s responsibility for firm strategy. This paper presents the results of an empirical, pilot study in the Republic of Serbia. The research confirms the interdependence of corporate governance mechanisms and strategic decision-making. Our findings indicate that ownership concentration protects majority shareholder interests and leads to lower board responsibility for strategic decision-making.

  5. Tactical and strategic decision-making aids for nuclear power plant emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cain, D.G.

    1987-01-01

    This paper examines the prospective role of computer-based decision aids for nuclear power plant emergency response. The role of these systems is subordinate to human activities, but in a complementary manner these systems process decision logic more accurately and foster a more thorough understanding of emergency situations than might other wise be possible. Within this context two decision support systems being developed are discussed. Both of these systems utilize technology derived from artificial intelligence, focussing on two different facets of emergency response. An automated emergency operating procedures (EOP) tracking expert system is described as a tactical aid for control room operator response. A reactor emergency action level monitor (REALM) expert system is proposed as a strategic decision aid for site emergency response. The discrimination between tactical and strategic decision-making is an intrinsic part of this examination

  6. Separate neural mechanisms underlie choices and strategic preferences in risky decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatraman, Vinod; Payne, John W; Bettman, James R; Luce, Mary Frances; Huettel, Scott A

    2009-05-28

    Adaptive decision making in real-world contexts often relies on strategic simplifications of decision problems. Yet, the neural mechanisms that shape these strategies and their implementation remain largely unknown. Using an economic decision-making task, we dissociate brain regions that predict specific choices from those predicting an individual's preferred strategy. Choices that maximized gains or minimized losses were predicted by functional magnetic resonance imaging activation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex or anterior insula, respectively. However, choices that followed a simplifying strategy (i.e., attending to overall probability of winning) were associated with activation in parietal and lateral prefrontal cortices. Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, through differential functional connectivity with parietal and insular cortex, predicted individual variability in strategic preferences. Finally, we demonstrate that robust decision strategies follow from neural sensitivity to rewards. We conclude that decision making reflects more than compensatory interaction of choice-related regions; in addition, specific brain systems potentiate choices depending on strategies, traits, and context.

  7. Extending Ansoff’s Strategic Diagnosis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Kipley; Alfred O. Lewis; Jau-Lian Jeng

    2012-01-01

    Given the complex and disruptive open-ended dynamics in the current dynamic global environment, senior management recognizes the need for a formalized, consistent, and comprehensive framework to analyze the firm’s strategic posture. Modern assessment tools, such as H. Igor Ansoff’s seminal contributions to strategic diagnosis, primarily focused on identifying and enhancing the firm’s strategic performance potential thr...

  8. The Importance of the Lateral Prefrontal Cortex for Strategic Decision Making in the Prisoner's Dilemma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutschek, Alexander; Sauter, Marian; Schubert, Torsten

    2015-12-01

    Previous functional imaging studies investigating the neural basis of strategic decision making in the prisoner's dilemma reported a correlation between cooperative behavior and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) activity; however, the precise function of the DLPFC in establishing cooperation remains unclear so far. The present study investigated the causal role of the DLPFC in an iterative prisoner's dilemma game with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). We discovered that disrupting the DLPFC with TMS decreased cooperation rates in comparison to control conditions, with this effect being most pronounced when the partner had defected previously. Thus, the current results suggest that the DLPFC contributes to strategic decision making in the prisoner's dilemma game.

  9. Case analysis online: a strategic management case model for the health industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Anne; Bearden, Eithne

    2004-01-01

    Despite the plethora of methods and tools available to support strategic management, the challenge for health executives in the next century will relate to their ability to access and interpret data from multiple and intricate communication networks. Integrated digital networks and satellite systems will expand the scope and ease of sharing information between business divisions, and networked systems will facilitate the use of virtual case discussions across universities. While the internet is frequently used to support clinical decisions in the healthcare industry, few executives rely upon the internetfor strategic analysis. Although electronic technologies can easily synthesize data from multiple information channels, research as well as technical issues may deter their application in strategic analysis. As digital models transform access to information, online models may become increasingly relevant in designing strategic solutions. While there are various pedagogical models available to support the strategic management process, this framework was designed to enhance strategic analysis through the application of technology and electronic research. A strategic analysis framework, which incorporated internet research and case analysis in a strategic managementcourse, is described alongwith design and application issues that emerged during the case analysis process.

  10. Application of multi-criteria decision-making on strategic municipal solid waste management in Dalmatia, Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vego, Goran; Kucar-Dragicevic, Savka; Koprivanac, Natalija

    2008-01-01

    The efficiency of providing a waste management system in the coastal part of Croatia consisting of four Dalmatian counties has been modelled. Two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA, were applied to assist with the systematic analysis and evaluation of the alternatives. The analysis covered two levels; first, the potential number of waste management centres resulting from possible inter-county cooperation; and second, the relative merits of siting of waste management centres in the coastal or hinterland zone was evaluated. The problem was analysed according to several criteria; and ecological, economic, social and functional criteria sets were identified as relevant to the decision-making process. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods were shown to be efficient tools for analysing the problem considered. Such an approach provided new insights to waste management planning at the strategic level, and gave a reason for rethinking some of the existing strategic waste management documents in Croatia

  11. Application of multi-criteria decision-making on strategic municipal solid waste management in Dalmatia, Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vego, Goran; Kucar-Dragicević, Savka; Koprivanac, Natalija

    2008-11-01

    The efficiency of providing a waste management system in the coastal part of Croatia consisting of four Dalmatian counties has been modelled. Two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA, were applied to assist with the systematic analysis and evaluation of the alternatives. The analysis covered two levels; first, the potential number of waste management centres resulting from possible inter-county cooperation; and second, the relative merits of siting of waste management centres in the coastal or hinterland zone was evaluated. The problem was analysed according to several criteria; and ecological, economic, social and functional criteria sets were identified as relevant to the decision-making process. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods were shown to be efficient tools for analysing the problem considered. Such an approach provided new insights to waste management planning at the strategic level, and gave a reason for rethinking some of the existing strategic waste management documents in Croatia.

  12. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    strategies for the investment manager in relations to Nigeria stock market ... Forecasting generally involves using information from the past to make decision ..... that both number of share in unit and number of deal in share cannot account.

  13. Strategic larval decision-making in a bivoltine butterfly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friberg, Magne; Dahlerus, Josefin; Wiklund, Christer

    2012-07-01

    In temperate areas, insect larvae must decide between entering winter diapause or developing directly and reproducing in the same season. Long daylength and high temperature promote direct development, which is generally associated with a higher growth rate. In this work, we investigated whether the larval pathway decision precedes the adjustment of growth rate (state-independent), or whether the pathway decision is conditional on the individual's growth rate (state-dependent), in the butterfly Pieris napi. This species typically makes the pathway decision in the penultimate instar. We measured growth rate throughout larval development under two daylengths: slightly shorter and slightly longer than the critical daylength. Results indicate that the pathway decision can be both state-independent and state-dependent; under the shorter daylength condition, most larvae entered diapause, and direct development was chosen exclusively by a small subset of larvae showing the highest growth rates already in the early instars; under the longer daylength condition, most larvae developed directly, and the diapause pathway was chosen exclusively by a small subset of slow-growing individuals. Among the remainder, the choice of pathway was independent of the early growth rate; larvae entering diapause under the short daylength grew as fast as or faster than the direct developers under the longer daylength in the early instars, whereas the direct developers grew faster than the diapausers only in the ultimate instar. Hence, the pathway decision was state-dependent in a subset with a very high or very low growth rate, whereas the decision was state-independent in the majority of the larvae, which made the growth rate adjustment downstream from the pathway decision.

  14. THE MODELS OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF INFOCOMM BUSINESS

    OpenAIRE

    M. A. Lyashenko

    2015-01-01

    Consideration subject in this article are models of strategic management of large transnational information and communication business. The purpose of the presented work consists in formation of ideas of model of strategic management on the example of infocommunication business. For achievement of a goal the author of article carries out the analysis and synthesis of the existing practice of strategic management in infocommunication business. For achievement of a goal, as methodological base,...

  15. Strategic workload management and decision biases in aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raby, Mireille; Wickens, Christopher D.

    1994-01-01

    Thirty pilots flew three simulated landing approaches under conditions of low, medium, and high workload. Workload conditions were created by varying time pressure and external communications requirements. Our interest was in how the pilots strategically managed or adapted to the increasing workload. We independently assessed the pilot's ranking of the priority of different discrete tasks during the approach and landing. Pilots were found to sacrifice some aspects of primary flight control as workload increased. For discrete tasks, increasing workload increased the amount of time in performing the high priority tasks, decreased the time in performing those of lowest priority, and did not affect duration of performance episodes or optimality of scheduling of tasks of any priority level. Individual differences analysis revealed that high-performing subjects scheduled discrete tasks earlier in the flight and shifted more often between different activities.

  16. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  17. Strategic use of preference confirmation in group decision making : The role of competition and dissent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toma, C.; Gilles, I.; Butera, F.

    2013-01-01

    The present research investigates the moderating role of goal interdependence and dissent on individual preference confirmation in hidden-profile tasks. We propose that preference confirmation can be used strategically to deal with competition and dissent likely to arise in group decision making. In

  18. The Interplay between Intuition and Rationality in Strategic Decision Making : A Paradox Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calabretta, G.; Gemser, Gerda; Wijnberg, NM

    2016-01-01

    Both intuition and rationality can play important roles in strategic decision making. However, a framework that specifically accounts for the interplay between intuition and rationality is still missing. This study addresses this gap by using a paradox lens and conceptualizes the

  19. Impact of Involvement of Chief Information Officer in Strategic Decisions: A Phenomenological Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussa, Samir

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the qualitative phenomenological study was to investigate the influence of the CIO on strategic decision making in organizations. The phenomenological study was deployed to address 2 research questions by interviewing a purposive sample of 23 executives (7 IT leaders, 10 CFOs, and 6 CEOs) in 5 different countries. A qualitative…

  20. The interplay between intuition and rationality in strategic decision making: A paradox perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calabretta, G.; Gemser, G.; Wijnberg, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    Although scholars have made a strong plea for an integrative approach to strategic decision making, an integrated framework that accounts for the interplay between intuition and rationality is still missing. This study addresses this gap by using a paradox lens and conceptualizes the

  1. A Simulation of Strategic Decision Making in Situational Stereotype Conditions for Entrepreneurial Companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, G. Page, III; Wilson, E. Vance

    1995-01-01

    Examines simulation in entrepreneurial research, reviews cognitive structures and theories, and presents a computerized simulation of strategic decision-making in situational stereotype conditions for entrepreneurial companies. The study suggests repeated exposure to a pattern recognition issue in entrepreneurship may lead to a broader…

  2. An economic and neuroscientific comparison of strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michl, T.; Taing, S.; Day, M.; Stanton, A.; Welpe, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    Economic decision- making is traditionally based on the assumptions of the predominant existence of Homo economicus (Latin: economic human being). The framework of this theory is known as the Rational Choice Theory (RC Theory). It includes assumptions such as utility maximization, opportunism,

  3. Business modelling of strategic management by the enterprise intellectual capital

    OpenAIRE

    Zhuravleva, I.

    2009-01-01

    The article is devoted to the resource and process approach to formation of the strategic management concept by the enterprise intellectual capital. The business model of strategic management by the intellectual capital in the environment of system business-modelling Business Studio 3 is developed.

  4. Factors affecting strategic plan implementation using interpretive structural modeling (ISM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadori, Mohammadkarim; Teymourzadeh, Ehsan; Tajik, Hamidreza; Ravangard, Ramin; Raadabadi, Mehdi; Hosseini, Seyed Mojtaba

    2018-06-11

    Purpose Strategic planning is the best tool for managers seeking an informed presence and participation in the market without surrendering to changes. Strategic planning enables managers to achieve their organizational goals and objectives. Hospital goals, such as improving service quality and increasing patient satisfaction cannot be achieved if agreed strategies are not implemented. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting strategic plan implementation in one teaching hospital using interpretive structural modeling (ISM). Design/methodology/approach The authors used a descriptive study involving experts and senior managers; 16 were selected as the study sample using a purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed and prepared based on previous studies. Data were analyzed using ISM. Findings Five main factors affected strategic plan implementation. Although all five variables and factors are top level, "senior manager awareness and participation in the strategic planning process" and "creating and maintaining team participation in the strategic planning process" had maximum drive power. "Organizational structure effects on the strategic planning process" and "Organizational culture effects on the strategic planning process" had maximum dependence power. Practical implications Identifying factors affecting strategic plan implementation is a basis for healthcare quality improvement by analyzing the relationship among factors and overcoming the barriers. Originality/value The authors used ISM to analyze the relationship between factors affecting strategic plan implementation.

  5. Strategic decisions in transport: a case study for a naval base selection in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaury Caruzzo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A decision on a military strategic environment, such as the selection of a new naval base, is a complex process and involves various criteria. In this context, few studies are available on the problems of military-naval transport decisions. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present a maritime transport case study using a multi-methodology framework in a process of strategic decision making in logistics. Through a review of the literature, normative documents from the Brazilian armed forces, and interviews with military officers, criteria and preferences were identified and a hierarchical structure was constructed for a case study in the Brazilian Navy–the location of the second Fleet Headquarters. The results indicated that São Marcos Bay, in Maranhão State, was the best location among the alternatives. The multi-criteria approach was shown to be a valuable tool in assisting the decision making process and to understand the trade-offs between strategic and operational criteria in a transport decision.

  6. Hidden profiles and concealed information: strategic information sharing and use in group decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma, Claudia; Butera, Fabrizio

    2009-06-01

    Two experiments investigated the differential impact of cooperation and competition on strategic information sharing and use in a three-person group decision-making task. Information was distributed in order to create a hidden profile so that disconfirmation of group members' initial preferences was required to solve the task. Experiment 1 revealed that competition, compared to cooperation, led group members to withhold unshared information, a difference that was not significant for shared information. In competition, compared to cooperation, group members were also more reluctant to disconfirm their initial preferences. Decision quality was lower in competition than in cooperation, this effect being mediated by disconfirmation use and not by information sharing. Experiment 2 replicated these findings and revealed the role of mistrust in predicting strategic information sharing and use in competition. These results support a motivated information processing approach of group decision making.

  7. Big data, mining, and analytics components of strategic decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Kudyba, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    Kudyba again has put together an all-star cast in his new book focused on leveraging data, including the more traditional structured and also the unstructured incomprehensible source, to generate actionable information. This most current book provides a framework for both the advanced data jockeys to more analytically focused data-driven decision makers. A must-read for those wishing to be on the cutting edge of leveraging the multitude of data sources that businesses capture today.-Jeff Nicola, VP of Retail Sales at one of the nation's largest health insurance firms, and a Six

  8. The Responders' Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers Playing the Ultimatum Game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts' stereotypical identity (i.e., responders). The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender paired with feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., linguist-Anna; economist-David; economist-Cristina; linguist-Leonardo). When playing with male-stereotyped responders, proposers quickly applied the equity rule, behaving fairly, while they adopted a strategic behavior with responders characterized by female stereotypes. They were also longer to make their offers to female than to male responders but both kinds of responders received comparable offers, suggesting a greater cognitive effort to treat females as equally as males. The present study explicitly demonstrates that gender stereotypical information affect strategic economic decision-making and highlights a possible evolution of gender discrimination into a more insidious discrimination toward individuals with female characteristics.

  9. The Responders’ Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers playing the Ultimatum Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eve Florianne Fabre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts’ stereotypical identity (i.e., responders. The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender paired with feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., linguist-Anna; economist-David; economist-Cristina; linguist-Leonardo. When playing with male-stereotyped responders, proposers quickly applied the equity rule, behaving fairly, while they adopted a strategic behavior with responders characterized by female stereotypes. They were also longer to make their offers to female than to male responders but both kinds of responders received comparable offers, suggesting a greater cognitive effort to treat females as equally as males. The present study explicitly demonstrates that gender stereotypical information affect strategic economic decision-making and highlights a possible evolution of gender discrimination into a more insidious discrimination toward individuals with female characteristics.

  10. The Responders’ Gender Stereotypes Modulate the Strategic Decision-Making of Proposers Playing the Ultimatum Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, Eve F.; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    Despite the wealth of studies investigating factors affecting decisions, not much is known about the impact of stereotypical beliefs on strategic economic decision-making. In the present study, we used the ultimatum game paradigm to investigate how participants playing as proposer modulate their strategic economic behavior, according to their game counterparts’ stereotypical identity (i.e., responders). The latter were introduced to the participants using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender paired with feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., linguist-Anna; economist-David; economist-Cristina; linguist-Leonardo). When playing with male-stereotyped responders, proposers quickly applied the equity rule, behaving fairly, while they adopted a strategic behavior with responders characterized by female stereotypes. They were also longer to make their offers to female than to male responders but both kinds of responders received comparable offers, suggesting a greater cognitive effort to treat females as equally as males. The present study explicitly demonstrates that gender stereotypical information affect strategic economic decision-making and highlights a possible evolution of gender discrimination into a more insidious discrimination toward individuals with female characteristics. PMID:26834684

  11. Sandberg : Key Strategic Decisions in Regards to Entry on the Japanese Market -

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Anna; Wennberg, Gustaf

    2006-01-01

    Problem: What key strategic decisions are required when choosing the right entry mode for a small Swedish firm, with a high-end jewellery brand, on the complex Japanese market? Purpose: The purpose of this research is to investigate different strategic choices in regards to the entry mode and the introduction of an exclusive brand on the Japanese market. The research will be supported by analysing the current situation of Sandberg and its aim to enter new markets. The authors of this thesis a...

  12. A strategic model of European gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

    2005-01-01

    Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. This paper proposes a model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behavior of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). In the case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages, which is the most realistic scenario, this yields a market outcome with double marginalization, that is suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up, at the expense of the final customers. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe remain dominant (Norway, the Netherlands), although some lose market shares (Algeria, UK, and especially Russia). Traditional exports will be complemented in the future by overseas supplies of LNG from the Middle East, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago which are becoming competitive. The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks; we find that transport capacity on the upstream market is sufficient but the capacity constraint is binding for many intra-EU trade relations. (Author)

  13. The effect of professional identity on comprehensiveness in strategic decision making: physician executives in the Canadian health care context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmali, Shazia

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores differences in decision-making approaches between physician executives and nonphysician executives in a managerial setting. Fredrickson and Mitchell's (1984) conceptualization of the construct of comprehensiveness in strategic decision making is the central construct of this paper. Theories of professional identity, socialization, and institutional/dominant logics are applied to illustrate their impact on strategic decision-making approaches of physician and nonphysician executives. This paper proposes that high-status professionals, specifically physicians, occupying senior management roles are likely to approach decision making in a way that is consistent with their professional identity, and by extension, that departments led by physician executives are less likely to exhibit comprehensiveness in strategic decision-making processes than departments led by nonphysician executives. This paper provides conceptual evidence that physicians and nonphysicians approach management differently, and introduces the utility of comprehensiveness as a construct for strategic decision making in the context of health care management.

  14. Modelling the Implications of Quality Management Elements on Strategic Flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Belén Escrig-Tena

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the implications of a quality management (QM initiative on strategic flexibility. Our study defines flexibility from a strategic approach and examines the extent to which, why, and how the triggering factors of strategic flexibility are related to QM elements. The hypotheses put forward are tested in an empirical study carried out on a sample of Spanish firms, using structural equation models. The results demonstrate the positive effect of adopting an integral QM initiative on enhancing strategic flexibility. QM enhances strategic flexibility more effectively when it is introduced comprehensively rather than in a piecemeal fashion. A series of practices linked to the application of a QM initiative are outlined, which managers can use to improve strategic flexibility. The approach used in the study can be applied to analyse other antecedents of flexibility and to propose possible studies that consider QM as an antecedent of other organisational variables.

  15. A Strategic Planning Process Model for Distance Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisel, Kenneth P.

    2008-01-01

    As more institutions seek to implement or expand distance learning programs, it becomes critical to integrate distance learning programs into broader strategic visions and plans. Using the informed opinion from a panel of peer-nominated experts via iterative Delphi questionnaires, a 10-phased strategic planning process model for distance education…

  16. Analysis of financial cost models of strategic planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vorobev Aleksei Viacheslavovich

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the cost of financial models for strategic planning. Shows the strengths and weaknesses of the model, economic value added EVA (Economic Value Added. Necessity of further development of methods for determining financial policy priorities.

  17. Use of the decision quality process for strategic planning in the Duri Field, Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neal, L. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic planning and rigorous decision analysis applications will be primary management tools for upstream companies in the 1990's. Merging the long term focus of a strategic planning process with the probabilistic output of decision analysis techniques can yield insightful views of the potential successes and failures of a business plan. Even with these insights, comparing and deciding among a group of alternatives will remain a difficult task. In addition to uncertainties, business partners do not always share common value measures. Marketers want more barrels to sell, field supervisors like low operating cost strategies, and stockholders like cashflow. This environment complicates the managers' ability to choose between available options. The Decision Quality Process, a combination of classical decision analysis techniques coupled with Quality Improvement (QI) principles, bridges this gap. The process allows managers to develop and decide between different long term strategic plans, explicitly accounting for uncertainties, unknowns, and differing value measures. Three teams consisting of engineers, geologists, front line managers, and the highest levels of management within Caltex Pacific Indonesia, Texaco, and Chevron, spent 18 months developing and evaluating a multitude of development scenarios for the Duri Field. More than 200,000 cases of economics were run to support the evaluation. The result was a significant increase in expected value for the field regardless of the value measure used

  18. STAGES OF A STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela – Lavinia CIOBANICA

    2014-01-01

    In the literature dedicated to strategic management there is no unitary vision of the authors regarding the sequence of actions that give content to the respective process and what their stages are. With all existing differences, the visions of different authors nevertheless observe the unitary logic of developing a series of actions. These actions begin with the competitive environment analysis in which the organization operates and with the establishment of its strategic mission and th...

  19. Evolutionistic or revolutionary paths? A PACS maturity model for strategic situational planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wetering, Rogier; Batenburg, Ronald; Lederman, Reeva

    2010-07-01

    While many hospitals are re-evaluating their current Picture Archiving and Communication System (PACS), few have a mature strategy for PACS deployment. Furthermore, strategies for implementation, strategic and situational planning methods for the evolution of PACS maturity are scarce in the scientific literature. Consequently, in this paper we propose a strategic planning method for PACS deployment. This method builds upon a PACS maturity model (PMM), based on the elaboration of the strategic alignment concept and the maturity growth path concept previously developed in the PACS domain. First, we review the literature on strategic planning for information systems and information technology and PACS maturity. Secondly, the PMM is extended by applying four different strategic perspectives of the Strategic Alignment Framework whereupon two types of growth paths (evolutionistic and revolutionary) are applied that focus on a roadmap for PMM. This roadmap builds a path to get from one level of maturity and evolve to the next. An extended method for PACS strategic planning is developed. This method defines eight distinctive strategies for PACS strategic situational planning that allow decision-makers in hospitals to decide which approach best suits their hospitals' current situation and future ambition and what in principle is needed to evolve through the different maturity levels. The proposed method allows hospitals to strategically plan for PACS maturation. It is situational in that the required investments and activities depend on the alignment between the hospital strategy and the selected growth path. The inclusion of both strategic alignment and maturity growth path concepts make the planning method rigorous, and provide a framework for further empirical research and clinical practice.

  20. Lexical Complexity of Decision-Making Writing Tasks: Form-focused Guided Strategic Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Mahdavirad

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study is an attempt to investigate the effect of form-focused guided strategic planning on lexical complexity of learners’ performance in writing tasks. The twenty intermediate level participants of the study performed an unplanned and then a planned decision-making task. In the planned task condition, the participants were provided with form-focused guided strategic planning which contained detailed instructions about how to plan, by being instructed to focus on form. The guidance included an explanation of the necessary structural and lexical patterns employed to express the learners’ views while developing a comparison-and-contrast paragraph in each task. The results of the statistical analysis indicated that the participants produced a written product with a greater lexical complexity in their performance of the task in the form-focused strategic planning condition. The findings emphasize the importance of guided strategic planning as a task condition in syllabus design for task-based language teaching and the necessity of incorporating this task feature for accomplishing lexical complexity in decision-making writing tasks.

  1. Ambulatory surgery center and general hospital competition: entry decisions and strategic choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Amin, Mona; Housman, Michael

    2012-01-01

    General hospitals are consistently under pressure to control cost and improve quality. In addition to mounting payers' demands, hospitals operate under evolving market conditions that might threaten their survival. While hospitals traditionally were concerned mainly with competition from other hospitals, today's reimbursement schemes and entrepreneurial activities encouraged the proliferation of outpatient facilities such as ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) that can jeopardize hospitals' survival. The purpose of this article was to examine the relationship between ASCs and general hospitals. More specifically, we apply the niche overlap theory to study the impact that competition between ASCs and general hospitals has on the survival chances of both of these organizational populations. Our analysis examined interpopulation competition in models of organizational mortality and market demand. We utilized Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the impact of competition from each on ASC and hospital exit while controlling for market factors. We relied on two data sets collected and developed by Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration: outpatient facility licensure data and inpatient and outpatient surgical procedure data. Although ASCs do tend to exit markets in which there are high levels of ASC competition, we found no evidence to suggest that ASC exit rates are affected by hospital density. On the other hand, hospitals not only tend to exit markets with high levels of hospital competition but also experience high exit rates in markets with high ASC density. The implications from our study differ for ASCs and hospitals. When making decisions about market entry, ASCs should choose their markets according to the following: demand for outpatient surgery, number of physicians who would practice in the surgery center, and the number of surgery centers that already exist in the market. Hospitals, on the other hand, should account for competition from ASCs

  2. Educated predators make strategic decisions to eat defended prey according to their toxin content

    OpenAIRE

    Craig A. Barnett; John Skelhorn; Melissa Bateson; Candy Rowe

    2012-01-01

    Animals often eat foods containing toxins to benefit from the nutrients that they contain. Understanding how animals balance the costs of eating toxins with the benefits of gaining nutrients is important for understanding the evolution of antipredator defenses, particularly aposematism and mimicry. In this study, we tested whether predators could learn to use color signals to make strategic decisions about when to include prey that varied in their toxin content in their diets. We gave Europea...

  3. The interplay between intuition and rationality in strategic decision making: A paradox perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Calabretta, G.; Gemser, G.; Wijnberg, N.M.

    2017-01-01

    Although scholars have made a strong plea for an integrative approach to strategic decision making, an integrated framework that accounts for the interplay between intuition and rationality is still missing. This study addresses this gap by using a paradox lens and conceptualizes the intuition-rationality duality as a paradoxical tension. We draw on seven case studies of innovation projects to empirically derive a three-step process for managing this intuition-rationality tension through para...

  4. Competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd - A base for strategic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Markkanen, Sini

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to execute a competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd. The analysis focused on finding the company’s current competitors operating in Finland. The commissioner Feelback intended to use the competitor information in strategic decision making, such as planning the company’s operations in the competitive environment. The competitor analysis found 14 competitors which were grouped into direct, indirect and potential competitors. As a conclusion, it can be stated t...

  5. Modelling long run strategic behaviour on the liberalised European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulder, Machiel; Zwart, Gijsbert

    2005-01-01

    In gas markets, intertemporal constraints are of particular importance due to the finiteness of gas resources. In particular in the UK and the Netherlands, gas resources are expected to dry up on the medium term, giving rise to a positive resource rent of the gas. On shorter time scales, decisions on investments in production, transmission, storage and LNG terminal capacities affect short term output decisions in following years, while within the year prices across seasons are related through storage decisions. We develop a model of strategic behaviour on the European gas markets that incorporates such intertemporal relations. We take into account interactions between strategic producers of gas, price-taking transmission companies, and traders arbitraging the markets by transporting gas across borders, storing gas across seasons, and importing LNG. As a case study, we use the model to explore the impacts on producer behaviour and infrastructure investments of a cap on production from a large gas field in the Netherlands. (Author)

  6. Elite Decision Makers’ Strategic Use of European Integration and Globalisation Discourses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates decision makers’ strategic use of European integration and globalisation discourses to justify and coordinate national sector reforms. This is done using the example of banking sector reforms in two small European Union (EU) member states, Ireland and Denmark. Two key...... in line with European integration measures, even in the absence of national commitment to the latter. Discourses of globalisation have thus become ‘the last resort’ for Danish decision makers in justifying and coordinating reforms that are in line with EU regulations and recommendations....

  7. Simulation based decision support for strategic communication and marketing management concerning the consumer introduction of smart energy meters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Sanden, M.C.A.; Van Dam, K.H.; Stragier, J.; Kobus, C.B.A.

    2013-01-01

    Communication and marketing professionals make strategic decisions in highly complex and dynamic contexts. These decisions are highly uncertain on the outcome and process level when, for example, consumer behaviour is at stake. Decision support systems can provide insights in these levels of

  8. STAGES OF A STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela – Lavinia CIOBANICA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the literature dedicated to strategic management there is no unitary vision of the authors regarding the sequence of actions that give content to the respective process and what their stages are. With all existing differences, the visions of different authors nevertheless observe the unitary logic of developing a series of actions. These actions begin with the competitive environment analysis in which the organization operates and with the establishment of its strategic mission and they end with the performance evaluation after the strategy has been applied and, if appropriate, with the reconsidering of this strategy and the making of the necessary corrections to it. Such a basic structure of the process is adopted in most organizations that practice the strategic management. But noticeable differences appear in the degree of the formalization of the process and in the involvement of different managerial levels in the designing and detailing of its components.

  9. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the annual cycle: Linking policy alternatives, landowner decisions, and biological population outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drum, Ryan G.; Ribic, Christine; Koch, Katie; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Grant, Edward C.; Ahlering, Marissa; Barnhill, Laurel; Dailey, Thomas; Lor, Socheata; Mueller, Connie; Pavlacky, D.C.; Rideout, Catherine; Sample, David W.

    2015-01-01

    Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  10. Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan G Drum

    Full Text Available Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

  11. Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Support System and Strategic Environmental Assessment: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Torrieri

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This contribution focuses on the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA as an important tool to ensure sustainable development and reach a high level of environmental protection. More specifically, this paper provides an evaluation method based on the integration of Geographic Information System (GIS and Multi-criteria Analysis—named Integrated Spatial Multi-criteria Decision Support System (ISMDSS—to support the preparation of environmental assessment reports and the construction of scenarios for the adoption of urban plans, as an innovative tool that integrates objectives and multidimensional (economic, environmental, and social components, as well as different approaches and models for the construction of a long-term shared vision. In particular, considerations are made by presenting a thought-provoking case study on the SEA of the urban plan of the municipality of Marzano di Nola, located in the province of Avellino in the Campania region. The experiment carried out showed the potentiality of the ISMDSS to evaluate the impacts of different scenarios with the aim of developing a sustainable urban municipal plan. The spatial dimension is useful in understanding the dynamics that characterize each environmental topic in a specific area, by considering not only the components of the natural and developed environment, but also the interactions with social and economic components.

  12. Aikido: a model for brief strategic therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saposnek, D T

    1980-09-01

    Building on Watzlawick's observations of certain similarities between judo and brief strategic therapy, this paper develops theoretic and pragmatic parallels between brief strategic therapy and a sophisticated martial art system, Aikido. After presenting the contextual similarities of the two conceptual systems as parallel "challenges" to the therapist and Aikidoist to effect change, the similarities in basic principles of practice are presented. The similarities in the philosophical and attitudinal positions of these conceptual systems are then delineated, followed by a case example that integrates the various concepts in the paper.

  13. Developmental changes of neuronal networks associated with strategic social decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinmann, Elisabeth; Schmalor, Antonia; Prehn-Kristensen, Alexander; Wolff, Stephan; Galka, Andreas; Möhring, Jan; Gerber, Wolf-Dieter; Petermann, Franz; Stephani, Ulrich; Siniatchkin, Michael

    2014-04-01

    One of the important prerequisites for successful social interaction is the willingness of each individual to cooperate socially. Using the ultimatum game, several studies have demonstrated that the process of decision-making to cooperate or to defeat in interaction with a partner is associated with activation of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), anterior insula (AI), and inferior frontal cortex (IFC). This study investigates developmental changes in this neuronal network. 15 healthy children (8-12 years), 15 adolescents (13-18 years) and 15 young adults (19-28 years) were investigated using the ultimatum game. Neuronal networks representing decision-making based on strategic thinking were characterized using functional MRI. In all age groups, the process of decision-making in reaction to unfair offers was associated with hemodynamic changes in similar regions. Compared with children, however, healthy adults and adolescents revealed greater activation in the IFC and the fusiform gyrus, as well as the nucleus accumbens. In contrast, healthy children displayed more activation in the AI, the dorsal part of the ACC, and the DLPFC. There were no differences in brain activations between adults and adolescents. The neuronal mechanisms underlying strategic social decision making are already developed by the age of eight. Decision-making based on strategic thinking is associated with age-dependent involvement of different brain regions. Neuronal networks underlying theory of mind and reward anticipation are more activated in adults and adolescents with regard to the increasing perspective taking with age. In relation to emotional reactivity and respective compensatory coping in younger ages, children have higher activations in a neuronal network associated with emotional processing and executive control. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Analysis of Nursing Clinical Decision Support Requests and Strategic Plan in a Large Academic Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Kimberly; Bavuso, Karen; Bouyer-Ferullo, Sharon; Goldsmith, Denise; Fairbanks, Amanda; Gesner, Emily; Lagor, Charles; Collins, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    To understand requests for nursing Clinical Decision Support (CDS) interventions at a large integrated health system undergoing vendor-based EHR implementation. In addition, to establish a process to guide both short-term implementation and long-term strategic goals to meet nursing CDS needs. We conducted an environmental scan to understand current state of nursing CDS over three months. The environmental scan consisted of a literature review and an analysis of CDS requests received from across our health system. We identified existing high priority CDS and paper-based tools used in nursing practice at our health system that guide decision-making. A total of 46 nursing CDS requests were received. Fifty-six percent (n=26) were specific to a clinical specialty; 22 percent (n=10) were focused on facilitating clinical consults in the inpatient setting. "Risk Assessments/Risk Reduction/Promotion of Healthy Habits" (n=23) was the most requested High Priority Category received for nursing CDS. A continuum of types of nursing CDS needs emerged using the Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework: 1) facilitating data capture, 2) meeting information needs, 3) guiding knowledge-based decision making, and 4) exposing analytics for wisdom-based clinical interpretation by the nurse. Identifying and prioritizing paper-based tools that can be modified into electronic CDS is a challenge. CDS strategy is an evolving process that relies on close collaboration and engagement with clinical sites for short-term implementation and should be incorporated into a long-term strategic plan that can be optimized and achieved overtime. The Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom Conceptual Framework in conjunction with the High Priority Categories established may be a useful tool to guide a strategic approach for meeting short-term nursing CDS needs and aligning with the organizational strategic plan.

  15. Strategic Entry Deterrence Modeling: Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Seliverstov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The prime focus in this article is on key findings concerning theoretical aspects of strategic behavior by incumbents to deter market entry of new firms. The author summarizes main lines of scientific research in the topic which give an insight into the patterns of the incumbent’s impact on the behavior of the entrants, the entry deterrence instruments and the consequences of these actions. Today the free entry markets are considered to be a rare phenomenon. The market entry of new firms is associated with significant entry costs, which allow the incumbents to take advantage of their dominant position and derive positive economic profits. In case of entry threat by potential competitors the incumbents take strategic actions aimed at deterring entry and preserving their dominant position. Among the most efficient strategic actions one can emphasize the erection of additional barriers to entry for the newcomers through producing the limit output and price, investments in sunk assets, capacity expansion and product differentiation. Meanwhile by taking strategic actions the incumbents are not always trying to affect the entrant’s costs and profit directly, they often aim at changing the entrant’s expectations regarding future intentions of the incumbents to preserve dominant position.

  16. Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM) Decisions and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for Community Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldin, Antoinette M.

    2013-01-01

    With the changing landscape in enrollment options for potential community college students, community college administrators are looking for ways to forecast enrollment by using strategic enrollment management models. Today, community colleges' administration is challenged to develop, use, and implement enrollment models that support their…

  17. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  18. The influence of territory planning and social development on strategic decisions in passenger transport development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Griškevičienė

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available The main factors of space planning and social development which play an important role in making strategic decisions in passenger transportation have been analysed. A number of strategic aims based on major principles of territory transport planning have been formulated. The investigation made has shown that the operation of public transport is not closely connected with the main carcass of urban territories. This decreases the efficiency of public transport, making it less popular and competitive compared to automobiles. The creation of the strategy of public transport development for the period of its integration into the EU system requires the use of methods taking into account territory planning and social and economic development of the country. The integration of new territories into the existing transportation system, optimization of routes and the increase of transport service quality are aimed to provide higher living standards and better social and economic conditions for the inhabitants. The appropriate tactical decisions in planning the development of modern passenger transport may be made only if the harmonized and well-grounded strategic aims are defined.

  19. Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...

  20. THE MODELS OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF INFOCOMM BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Lyashenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Consideration subject in this article are models of strategic management of large transnational information and communication business. The purpose of the presented work consists in formation of ideas of model of strategic management on the example of infocommunication business. For achievement of a goal the author of article carries out the analysis and synthesis of the existing practice of strategic management in infocommunication business. For achievement of a goal, as methodological base, the systems and logical analysis was selected. In water part of article the interrelation of a computerization of basic functions of a business management, by public and public institutions, growth of the enterprises of the information and communication sphere and formation of a pool of specially prepared labor with development of practice of a strategation is presented. In the main part of article practice of the organization of strategic management of infocommunication business in three leading fi rms of this branch of Microsoft, Dell, Intel is considered. Consideration is directly coordinated to evolution of the infocommunication branch defi ning regularities of strategic management. The model strategic management in the Microsoft company conceptually corresponds to strategy of growth and includes three elements: representation, participation and innovations. At the heart of model of strategic management of Intel there are two elements: fi rst, deduction of leader positions in the of a segment by means of development, productions and sales of the most eff ective and available goods at the price, secondly, is maximizing use value of the fi nal product of the company. Generally the model of strategic management of Dell includes three basic elements: development and use of the latest technologies, high quality of goods, eff ective interrelation in a value creation chain. As result of the experiment of strategic management of large information

  1. Spatial decision support for strategic environmental assessment of land use plans. A case study in southern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geneletti, Davide; Bagli, Stefano; Napolitano, Paola; Pistocchi, Alberto

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents and discusses the construction of a spatial decision-support tool for the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of a land use plan: the spatial coordination plan of the Province of Naples, in southern Italy. The decision-support tool organises the relevant information, spatially resolves the actions of the plan, predicts their environmental impacts, and generates overall performance maps. Its final goal is to provide a suitable technical support to a formal SEA procedure. The expected implications of the plan, such as changes in land use and traffic flows and urban expansion, were modelled and assessed against a set of environmental criteria using SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis and mapping. It was found that the SWOT analysis provided a good basis for assessment and strategy formulation. The paper also intends to contribute to the topic of data and scale issues in SEA, by exemplifying the role played by spatial data and spatial analyses to support informative SEA

  2. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  3. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  4. Matrix Model for Choosing Green Marketing Sustainable Strategic Alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Sitnikov

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Green marketing examines the symbiotic role played by marketing in ensuring sustainable business, exploring issues concerning the environment and the way strategic decisions can influence it. At present, the environmental issues concern more and more the competitive approach any organization can implement. Based on this approach, organizations can gain competitive advantage by managing environmental variables and by developing and implementing green marketing strategies. Considering the importance and impact of green marketing, by using theoretical concepts and defining a set of research directions, the paper and the research conducted were focused on creating a matrix model for choosing the optimal green marketing strategy, oriented towards competitive advantage. The model is based on the correlation that can be established among the generic strategies of competitive advantage, the variables of extended marketing mix (7Ps and the green marketing strategy matrix. There are also analyzed the implications that may be generated within a company by the adoption of a green marketing strategy and its role in promoting the environmental benefits of products.

  5. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni [Istituto di Econometria e CRANEC, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Milan (Italy)]. E-mail: giovanni.marseguerra@unicatt.it; Cortelezzi, Flavia [Dipartimento di Diritto ed Economia delle Persone e delle Imprese, Universita dell' Insubria (Italy)]. E-mail: flavia.cortelezzi@uninsubria.it; Dominioni, Armando [CORE-Catholique de Louvain la Neuve (Belgium)]. E-mail: dominioni@core.ucl.ac.be

    2006-08-15

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost.

  6. Investment timing decisions in a stochastic duopoly model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Giovanni; Cortelezzi, Flavia; Dominioni, Armando

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the role of strategic considerations on the optimal timing of investment when firms compete for a new market (e.g., the provision of an innovative product) under demand uncertainty. Within a continuous time model of stochastic oligopoly, we show that strategic considerations are likely to be of limited impact when the new product is radically innovative whilst the fear of a rival's entry may deeply affect firms' decisions whenever innovation is to some extent limited. The welfare analysis shows surprisingly that the desirability of the different market structures considered does not depend on the fixed entry cost

  7. Strategic Decision-Making: Research Mapping from Exploratory Factor Analysis and Multidimensional Scaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivano Ribeiro

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To understand the connection between authors, concepts and theories that address strategic decision-making, in this article the citations and co-citations of works published up to 2014 were analyzed. The sample consists of 489 articles published in international periodicals included in the Web of Science-ISI Web of Knowledge database. The search was conducted using key words that enabled the identification of the highest possible number of articles on the subject in question. Through Multidimensional Scaling (MDS and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA, the conceptual and theoretical relationships involved in these studies were identified. The results show that from 1980 to 2014 three different factors are highlighted: the first has to do with studies on conflict; the second factor is the Top Management Team (TMT and decision-making; and the third is related to processes. More recently (2013-2014, studies on strategic decision-making are converging towards analysis of conflict and process, composition and control, with Upper Echelon Theory being maintained as the central theory in these studies. This finding is the main contribution of this article.

  8. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-06-28

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.

  9. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  10. Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Micotti

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

  11. Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

    2014-09-01

    Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

  12. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and Reward Responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheres, Anouk; Sanfey, Alan G

    2006-10-18

    In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS) which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  13. Mental models of decision-making in a healthcare executive

    OpenAIRE

    Long, Katrina

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The importance of shared mental models in teamwork has been explored in a diverse array of artificial work groups. This study extends such research to explore the role of mental models in the strategic decision-making of a real-world senior management group. Design/Methodology Data were collected from an intact group of senior healthcare executives (N=13) through semi-structured interviews, meeting observations and internal document analysis. Participants responded to intervi...

  14. WIND-STORM: A Decision Support System for the Strategic Management of Windthrow Crises by the Forest Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Riguelle

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Storms are one of the most damaging agents for European forests and can cause huge and long-term economic impacts on the forest sector. Recent events and research haves contributed to a better understanding and management of destructive storms, but public authorities still lack appropriate decision-support tools for evaluating their strategic decisions in the aftermath of a storm. This paper presents a decision support system (DSS that compares changes in the dynamics of the regional forest-based sector after storm events under various crisis management options. First, the development and implementation of a regional forest model is addressed; then, the potential application of the model-based DSS WIND-STORM is illustrated. The results of simulated scenarios reveal that this DSS type is useful for designing a cost-effective regional strategy for storm-damage management in the context of scarce public resources and that public strategies must encompass the whole forest-based sector to be efficient. Additional benefits of such a DSS is to bring together decision-makers and forest stakeholders for a common objective and therefore to enhance participatory approaches to crisis management.

  15. Strategic Entry Deterrence Modeling: Literature Review

    OpenAIRE

    D. A. Seliverstov

    2017-01-01

    The prime focus in this article is on key findings concerning theoretical aspects of strategic behavior by incumbents to deter market entry of new firms. The author summarizes main lines of scientific research in the topic which give an insight into the patterns of the incumbent’s impact on the behavior of the entrants, the entry deterrence instruments and the consequences of these actions. Today the free entry markets are considered to be a rare phenomenon. The market entry of new firms is a...

  16. Near Real-Time MOPITT Data - Its Architecture, Obstacles Overcome, and Strategic Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziskin, D.; Mao, D.; Worden, H. M.; Deeter, M. N.; D'Attilo, G.; Fredrick, T.; Martinez-Alonso, S.; Francis, G.; Drews, C.

    2017-12-01

    Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) is an instrument that has been flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite and collecting CO data since March 2000. The standard MOPITT product uses ancillary data that can delay its production by several weeks. Furthermore, final processing does not occur until after the annual calibration event, creating a lag of up to a year. In contrast, MOPITT produces a Near Real-Time (NRT) product available through the Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) interface with a latency of less than three hours. This presentation details the architecture of the system, obstacles overcome, and strategic decisions made in order become a LANCE node.

  17. The impact of chief executive officer optimism on hospital strategic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langabeer, James R; Yao, Emery

    2012-01-01

    Previous strategic decision making research has focused mostly on the analytical positioning approach, which broadly emphasizes an alignment between rationality and the external environment. In this study, we propose that hospital chief executive optimism (or the general tendency to expect positive future outcomes) will moderate the relationship between comprehensively rational decision-making process and organizational performance. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact that dispositional optimism has on the well-established relationship between rational decision-making processes and organizational performance. Specifically, we hypothesized that optimism will moderate the relationship between the level of rationality and the organization's performance. We further suggest that this relationship will be more negative for those with high, as opposed to low, optimism. We surveyed 168 hospital CEOs and used moderated hierarchical regression methods to statically test our hypothesis. On the basis of a survey study of 168 hospital CEOs, we found evidence of a complex interplay of optimism in the rationality-organizational performance relationship. More specifically, we found that the two-way interactions between optimism and rational decision making were negatively associated with performance and that where optimism was the highest, the rationality-performance relationship was the most negative. Executive optimism was positively associated with organizational performance. We also found that greater perceived environmental turbulence, when interacting with optimism, did not have a significant interaction effect on the rationality-performance relationship. These findings suggest potential for broader participation in strategic processes and the use of organizational development techniques that assess executive disposition and traits for recruitment processes, because CEO optimism influences hospital-level processes. Research implications include incorporating

  18. Adding value to the decision-making process of mega projects : Fostering strategic ambiguity, redundancy, and resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giezen, Mendel; Salet, Willem; Bertolini, Luca

    2015-01-01

    Current practice in decision-making about mega projects seems to be aimed at reducing complexity by simplification. However, this is often detrimental to the resilience and added value of these projects. This article uses the concept of strategic capacity for analyzing the decision-making process on

  19. Understanding dynamics of strategic decision-making in venture creation: a process study of effectuation and causation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reymen, I.M.M.J.; Andries, P.; Berends, J.J.; Mauer, R.; Stephan, U.; van Burg, J.C.

    2015-01-01

    This study draws upon effectuation and causation as examples of planning-based and flexible decision-making logics and investigates dynamics in the use of both logics. The study applies a longitudinal process research approach to investigate strategic decision making in new venture creation over

  20. From Performance Measurement to Strategic Management Model: Balanced Scorecard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cihat Savsar

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In Today’s competitive markets, one of the main conditions of the surviving of enterprises is the necessity to have effective performance management systems. Decisions must be taken by the management according to the performance of assets. In the transition from industrial society to information society, the presence of business structures have changed and the values of non-financial assets have increased in this period. So some systems have emerged based on intangible assets and to measure them instead of tangible assets and their measurements. With economic and technological development multi-dimensional evaluation in the business couldn’t be sufficient.  Performance evaluation methods can be applied in business with an integrated approach by its accordance with business strategy, linking to reward system and cause effects link established between performance measures. Balanced scorecard is one of the commonly used in measurement methods. While it was used for the first time in 1992 as a performance measurement tool today it has been used as a strategic management model besides its conventional uses. BSC contains customer perspective, internal perspective and learning and growth perspective besides financial perspective. Learning and growth perspective is determinant of other perspectives. In order to achieve the objectives set out in the financial perspective in other dimensions that need to be accomplished, is emphasized. Establishing a causal link between performance measures and targets how to achieve specified goals with strategy maps are described.

  1. Support Vector Machines for decision support in electricity markets׳ strategic bidding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Sousa, Tiago M.; Praça, Isabel

    2015-01-01

    . The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated...... by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), originating promising results: an effective electricity market price forecast in a fast execution time. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL......׳ research group has developed a multi-agent system: Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) that works as a decision support system for market players...

  2. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING, ENTREPRENEURIAL ORIENTATION AND PERFORMANCE: AN ORGANIZATIONAL LIFE CYCLE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Héctor Montiel Campos

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available EntrepreneurialOrientation (EO and Strategic Decision Making (SDM have been studied in awide variety of settings. However, there is not enough research available thatcombines both topics and studies the ways in which entrepreneurs make strategicdecisions in early stages of organizational life cycle. The purpose of thisresearch was therefore to examine the effects of the factors associated withthe decision maker influencing EO and performance for two categories of firms.The results were achieved by using empirical data from two independent samplesof firms in different stages of organizational life cycle: start-up stage (n=133 and growth stage (n=173. The results show that SDM andcontrol variables have different effects in the two samples; however, for bothsamples there is significant relation between EO and performance. The paperconcludes with a discussion about the results and suggestions for futureresearch.

  3. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

  4. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

  5. A strategic gaming model for health information exchange markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Diego A; Feijoo, Felipe; Zayas-Castro, Jose L; Levin, Scott; Das, Tapas K

    2018-03-01

    Current market conditions create incentives for some providers to exercise control over patient data in ways that unreasonably limit its availability and use. Here we develop a game theoretic model for estimating the willingness of healthcare organizations to join a health information exchange (HIE) network and demonstrate its use in HIE policy design. We formulated the model as a bi-level integer program. A quasi-Newton method is proposed to obtain a strategy Nash equilibrium. We applied our modeling and solution technique to 1,093,177 encounters for exchanging information over a 7.5-year period in 9 hospitals located within a three-county region in Florida. Under a set of assumptions, we found that a proposed federal penalty of up to $2,000,000 has a higher impact on increasing HIE adoption than current federal monetary incentives. Medium-sized hospitals were more reticent to adopt HIE than large-sized hospitals. In the presence of collusion among multiple hospitals to not adopt HIE, neither federal incentives nor proposed penalties increase hospitals' willingness to adopt. Hospitals' apathy toward HIE adoption may threaten the value of inter-connectivity even with federal incentives in place. Competition among hospitals, coupled with volume-based payment systems, creates no incentives for smaller hospitals to exchange data with competitors. Medium-sized hospitals need targeted actions (e.g., outside technological assistance, group purchasing arrangements) to mitigate market incentives to not adopt HIE. Strategic game theoretic models help to clarify HIE adoption decisions under market conditions at play in an extremely complex technology environment.

  6. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  7. Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bliemer, M.C.J.; Raadsen, M.P.H.; Brederode, L.J.N.; Bell, M.G.H.; Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; Smith, M.J.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic

  8. The Lisbon new international airport: The story of a decision-making process and the role of Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partidario, Maria R.; Coutinho, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    This is the brief story of a decision process and the role of Strategic Environmental Assessment in government political decision-making. Following a prolonged, and agitated, decision process, initiated in the 1960s, the Government of Portugal in 2005 took the final decision to build the new international airport of Lisbon at the controversial location of Ota, 40 km north of Lisbon. The detailed project design and EIA were started. However this decision would change in 2007 due to the challenge raised by a private sponsored study that identified an alternative location for the airport at Campo de Tiro de Alcochete (CTA). This new site, which had never been considered as an option before, appeared to avoid many of the problems that caused public controversy at the Ota site. The Government, pressured by this challenge, promoted a strategic comparative assessment between the two sites. The result of this study was the choice of CTA as the preferred location. This paper discusses this radical change in the decision from a socio-political perspective. It will highlight the relevance of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), and the strategic and constructive approach it enables in mega-project decision-making.

  9. Modeling Common-Sense Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    This paper presents a methodology for efficient synthesis of dynamical model simulating a common-sense decision making process. The approach is based upon the extension of the physics' First Principles that includes behavior of living systems. The new architecture consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the object, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge-base and incorporating it in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledgebase stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions.

  10. A Development of Group Decision Support System for Strategic Item Classification using Analytic Hierarchy Process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Sung Ho; Tae, Jae Woong; Yang, Seung Hyo; Shin, Dong Hoon

    2016-01-01

    Korea has carried out export controls on nuclear items that reflect the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines (Notice on Trade of Strategic Item of Foreign Trade Act) since joining the NSG in 1995. Nuclear export control starts with classifications that determine whether export items are relevant to nuclear proliferation or not according to NSG guidelines. However, due to qualitative characteristics of nuclear item definition in the guidelines, classification spends a lot of time and effort to make a consensus. The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of an experts' group decision support system (GDSS) based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for the classification of strategic items. The results of this study clearly demonstrated that a GDSS based on an AHP proved positive, systematically providing relative weight among the planning variables and objectives. By using an AHP we can quantify the subjective judgements of reviewers. An order of priority is derived from a numerical value. The verbal and fuzzy measurement of an AHP enables us reach a consensus among reviewers in a GDSS. An AHP sets common weight factors which are a priority of each attribute that represent the views of an entire group. It makes a consistency in decision-making that is important for classification

  11. A Development of Group Decision Support System for Strategic Item Classification using Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Sung Ho; Tae, Jae Woong; Yang, Seung Hyo; Shin, Dong Hoon [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Korea has carried out export controls on nuclear items that reflect the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines (Notice on Trade of Strategic Item of Foreign Trade Act) since joining the NSG in 1995. Nuclear export control starts with classifications that determine whether export items are relevant to nuclear proliferation or not according to NSG guidelines. However, due to qualitative characteristics of nuclear item definition in the guidelines, classification spends a lot of time and effort to make a consensus. The aim of this study is to provide an analysis of an experts' group decision support system (GDSS) based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for the classification of strategic items. The results of this study clearly demonstrated that a GDSS based on an AHP proved positive, systematically providing relative weight among the planning variables and objectives. By using an AHP we can quantify the subjective judgements of reviewers. An order of priority is derived from a numerical value. The verbal and fuzzy measurement of an AHP enables us reach a consensus among reviewers in a GDSS. An AHP sets common weight factors which are a priority of each attribute that represent the views of an entire group. It makes a consistency in decision-making that is important for classification.

  12. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  13. Development of a virtual power market model to investigate strategic and collusive behavior of market players

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, Miadreza; Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen; Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a virtual power market model is proposed to investigate the behavior of power market players from regulator's point of view. In this approach, strategic players are modeled in a multi-agent environment. These agents which are virtual representative of actual players forecast the prices and participate in the markets, exactly the same as real world situation. In addition, the role of ISO is encountered by using security constraint unit commitment (SCUC) and security constraint economic dispatch (SCED) solutions. Moreover, the interaction between market players is modeled using a heuristic dynamic game theory algorithm based on the supply function equilibria (SFE). In addition to the collusive behavior, using the proposed model, the short-term strategic behavior of players, which their effects will appear in long-term, can be simulated. The proposed model enables the market regulators to make decision before implementing new market rules with the confidence of their results. To represent the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study including wind power plants is considered and the impact of various market rules on players’ behavior is simulated and discussed. Numerical studies indicate that simulating the strategic and collusive behavior prior to any change in the market rules is necessary. - Highlights: • A virtual power market model is proposed using a heuristic dynamic game theory. • The proposed model can simulate the behavior of market players in a certain period. • This model can evaluate the oligopoly, collusive and strategic behavior of players. • The price uncertainty and security constraint are considered. • Neglecting strategic behavior of players can cause adverse consequences

  14. The Relationship Between Strategic Decision-Making and Leadership Styles: An Application in 4 and 5-Star Hotels in Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sedat ÇELİK

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to define the relationship between leadership styles and strategic decision-making in hotel businesses. Datas are obtained by using questionnaire technique. The questionnaire is applied to general managers or executives who are effective in making decisions in hotel businesses. This study comprises four and five star hotel businesses that have tourism establishment certificates. Since the number of population used is not excrescence in the research, complete enumeration sampling method is used and data is obtained from 87 hotel businesses. Results reveal that four and five star hotel businesses in Istanbul have executives showing transformational leadership, paternalistic leadership, autocratic leadership and charismatic leadership styles. Leaders who have these leadership styles make strategic decisions aimed at innovation and change basic business strategies, intervene in conflict and risk taking. The existence of meaningful relavence among leadership styles with strategic decisionmaking is determined.

  15. Rule-based decision making model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, Miki

    1998-01-01

    A rule-based decision making model is designed in G2 environment. A theoretical and methodological frame for the model is composed and motivated. The rule-based decision making model is based on object-oriented modelling, knowledge engineering and decision theory. The idea of safety objective tree is utilized. Advanced rule-based methodologies are applied. A general decision making model 'decision element' is constructed. The strategy planning of the decision element is based on e.g. value theory and utility theory. A hypothetical process model is built to give input data for the decision element. The basic principle of the object model in decision making is division in tasks. Probability models are used in characterizing component availabilities. Bayes' theorem is used to recalculate the probability figures when new information is got. The model includes simple learning features to save the solution path. A decision analytic interpretation is given to the decision making process. (author)

  16. A Strategic Decision Matrix for Analyzing Food Service Operations at Air Force Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    negotiation rather than unyielding end- states. By creating this hybrid model, we are able to capture the key components of the models that ensure the...the subjective nature of the decision and the political environment in which the decision must be made. This hybrid model allows us to develop the...Individual Chips Granola Bar Fresh Fruit Condiment and Lettuce Pack Grab and Go #3

  17. The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steen Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

  18. MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING IN STRATEGIC PLANNING OF TABLE EGG PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Crnčan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The main research objective was to analyze and evaluate different systems of table egg production by using the multiple criteria analysis, the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in decision making within strategic planning of production. The survey involved 79 producers of table eggs registered in the Records on laying hens’ farms in the Republic of Croatia. In the first stage, the research defined the criteria and sub-criteria for system evaluation which were compared in pairs in order to determine the weight or importance for each of them. Alternatives were evaluation based on definition of priorities of examinees and the extent to which they meet each of the defined criteria and sub-criteria. Intensity of examinees’ preferences were entered into the Expert Choice software in order to evaluate ranking results of egg production systems. Defined model consisted of a quantitative criterion of economic indicators, and the other two referred to qualitative criteria, market indicators and technical-technological factors. Each criterion had its corresponding sub-criteria that were evenly distributed in numerical order. Based on individual assessments of the examinees, overall cumulative evaluation was obtained for the table egg production systems. Accordingly, the most acceptable alternative to egg production is the indoor keeping system (priority 0.301. It is followed by the free-range system of keeping laying hens (priority 0.253. The third-ranked alternative is egg production by hens kept in conventional cages (priority 0.226, while the fourth-ranked least acceptable alternative, as of the total evaluation, is the ecological system of egg production (priority 0.220. Taking into account the obtained results of multiple criteria evaluation as well as EU and world trends in changing consumers’ habits including food safety and quality as well as customers’ preferences towards local market and local products, it is recommended that eggs

  19. Joint Decisions on Production and Pricing with Strategic Consumers for Green Crowdfunding Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuting; Zhang, Rong

    2017-01-01

    Green crowdfunding is developing as a novel and popular transaction method, which can largely improve the efficiency of raising initial funds and selling innovative green products or services. In this paper, we explore the creator’s joint decisions regarding green crowdfunding products of different quality levels that can sufficiently satisfy consumer preferences. Firstly, considering the characteristics of a green crowdfunding product, we present four pricing strategies when substitutes exist. Then we propose the optimal pricing strategies to maximize the total profit for the creator under different circumstances, facing strategic and myopic consumers. Finally, for the heterogeneity of consumer valuations, we compare the total profits of the four pricing strategies under different values of the substitution coefficient to obtain the optimal pricing and product strategies under the coexistence of strategic and myopic consumers. According to the result, we find that when the fraction of high-type consumers and the gap between high and low valuations is big, or when they are both small, traditional single pricing shows its benefit. However, when the green crowdfunding products are better than their substitute, a line of green products is more likely to be optimal. PMID:28930198

  20. Joint Decisions on Production and Pricing with Strategic Consumers for Green Crowdfunding Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuting Chen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Green crowdfunding is developing as a novel and popular transaction method, which can largely improve the efficiency of raising initial funds and selling innovative green products or services. In this paper, we explore the creator’s joint decisions regarding green crowdfunding products of different quality levels that can sufficiently satisfy consumer preferences. Firstly, considering the characteristics of a green crowdfunding product, we present four pricing strategies when substitutes exist. Then we propose the optimal pricing strategies to maximize the total profit for the creator under different circumstances, facing strategic and myopic consumers. Finally, for the heterogeneity of consumer valuations, we compare the total profits of the four pricing strategies under different values of the substitution coefficient to obtain the optimal pricing and product strategies under the coexistence of strategic and myopic consumers. According to the result, we find that when the fraction of high-type consumers and the gap between high and low valuations is big, or when they are both small, traditional single pricing shows its benefit. However, when the green crowdfunding products are better than their substitute, a line of green products is more likely to be optimal.

  1. Joint Decisions on Production and Pricing with Strategic Consumers for Green Crowdfunding Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuting; Zhang, Rong; Liu, Bin

    2017-09-20

    Green crowdfunding is developing as a novel and popular transaction method, which can largely improve the efficiency of raising initial funds and selling innovative green products or services. In this paper, we explore the creator's joint decisions regarding green crowdfunding products of different quality levels that can sufficiently satisfy consumer preferences. Firstly, considering the characteristics of a green crowdfunding product, we present four pricing strategies when substitutes exist. Then we propose the optimal pricing strategies to maximize the total profit for the creator under different circumstances, facing strategic and myopic consumers. Finally, for the heterogeneity of consumer valuations, we compare the total profits of the four pricing strategies under different values of the substitution coefficient to obtain the optimal pricing and product strategies under the coexistence of strategic and myopic consumers. According to the result, we find that when the fraction of high-type consumers and the gap between high and low valuations is big, or when they are both small, traditional single pricing shows its benefit. However, when the green crowdfunding products are better than their substitute, a line of green products is more likely to be optimal.

  2. Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depenbrock, Brett T.; Balint, Tibor S.; Sheehy, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

  3. A new approach to developing and optimizing organization strategy based on stochastic quantitative model of strategic performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Hell

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a highly formalized approach to strategy formulation and optimization of strategic performance through proper resource allocation. A stochastic quantitative model of strategic performance (SQMSP is used to evaluate the efficiency of the strategy developed. The SQMSP follows the theoretical notions of the balanced scorecard (BSC and strategy map methodologies, initially developed by Kaplan and Norton. Parameters of the SQMSP are suggested to be random variables and be evaluated by experts who give two-point (optimistic and pessimistic values and three-point (optimistic, most probable and pessimistic values evaluations. The Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate strategic performance. Having been implemented within a computer application and applied to solve the real problem (planning of an IT-strategy at the Faculty of Economics, University of Split the proposed approach demonstrated its high potential as a basis for development of decision support tools related to strategic planning.

  4. Strategic collaboration on business model innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerding, Allan Næs; Kringelum, Louise Tina Brøns

    The present paper focuses on collaboration as a source of hybridization of the market in the case of business model innovation. The basic argument is that while hybridization economizes on transaction costs, it also gives rise to transaction costs. In effect, transaction costs appears...... as a dialectical phenomenon. The argument is illustrated by a narrative of a case of radical business model innovation. The narrative shows how collaborators economize on transaction costs by developing a mutual understanding and shared interpretation of business model innovation, but at the same time gives rise...

  5. A Study in Sea-Air Intermodal Port Selection: Strategic Decision Making for United States Southern Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-01

    commerce ( B2B EC) and electronic data interchange (EDI) enabled by internet connectivity are leading the way in industry innovation. Business can profit...points. Companies like Bon-Ton Stores Inc. are rethinking their supply chains and are using intermodal for the first time ever. In this case, they...W. (1997). Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis with Spreadsheets. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing Company

  6. Engine Management : A Decision Support Tool for Strategic Engine Maintenance Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mayordomo, A.F.; Ghobbar, A.A.; Ghijs, S.S.A.; Cator, E.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a model that helps engine management make cost saving decisions. The model is developed around airline-influenced factors that have an impact on engine Maintenance Repair & Overhaul (MRO): Operations, maintenance philosophy, contract type, and fleet age. Within the model a

  7. Decision-making as performative struggle: Strategic political-executive practices influencing the actualization of an infrastructural development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkus, S.; de Heer, J.M.; Veenswijk, M.B.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of performative struggle through the use of an interpretative case story focussed on a strategic decision-making process concerning infrastructural development. Performativity is about “world-making” (Carter et al., 2010), based on the

  8. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS, AIMED AT THE BIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burneo Valarezo Servio

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in the management of projects aimed at Building Information Modeling, represents the main action to be developed during the development of the investment lifecycle, from inception to the development of life, decision marking is present in all phases of project management. In the Fund's shares of the production system by projects, decision making integrated from the priorities of the projects play an important role in the success of the company. The present work has as objective the development of a procedure for decision making during the life cycle of the project, the conditions for its implementation and the process for its development, with the purpose of raising their quality, to ensure decision making effective, consistent with the current development of the techniques of management.

  9. Adapting a strategic management model to hospital operating strategies. A model development and justification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinehart, K; Zimmerer, T W; Oswald, S

    1995-01-01

    Industrial organizations have employed the process of strategic management in their attempts to cope effectively with global competitive pressures, while attempting to build and maintain competitive advantage. With health-care organizations presently trying to cope with an increasingly turbulent environment created by the uncertainty as to pending legislation and anticipated reform, the need for such organizational strategic planning is apparent. Presents and discusses a methodology for adapting a business-oriented model of strategic planning to health care.

  10. A strategic management model for evaluation of health, safety and environmental performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, Majid; Toutounchian, Solmaz; Roayaei, Emad; Nassiri, Parvin

    2012-05-01

    Strategic health, safety, and environmental management system (HSE-MS) involves systematic and cooperative planning in each phase of the lifecycle of a project to ensure that interaction among the industry group, client, contractor, stakeholder, and host community exists with the highest level of health, safety, and environmental standard performances. Therefore, it seems necessary to assess the HSE-MS performance of contractor(s) by a comparative strategic management model with the aim of continuous improvement. The present Strategic Management Model (SMM) has been illustrated by a case study and the results show that the model is a suitable management tool for decision making in a contract environment, especially in oil and gas fields and based on accepted international standards within the framework of management deming cycle. To develop this model, a data bank has been created, which includes the statistical data calculated by converting the HSE performance qualitative data into quantitative values. Based on this fact, the structure of the model has been formed by defining HSE performance indicators according to the HSE-MS model. Therefore, 178 indicators have been selected which have been grouped into four attributes. Model output provides quantitative measures of HSE-MS performance as a percentage of an ideal level with maximum possible score for each attribute. Defining the strengths and weaknesses of the contractor(s) is another capability of this model. On the other hand, this model provides a ranking that could be used as the basis for decision making at the contractors' pre-qualification phase or during the execution of the project.

  11. Analyses of Markov decision process structure regarding the possible strategic use of interacting memory systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric A Zilli

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Behavioral tasks are often used to study the different memory systems present in humans and animals. Such tasks are usually designed to isolate and measure some aspect of a single memory system. However, it is not necessarily clear that any given task actually does isolate a system or that the strategy used by a subject in the experiment is the one desired by the experimenter. We have previously shown that when tasks are written mathematically as a form of partially-observable Markov decision processes, the structure of the tasks provide information regarding the possible utility of certain memory systems. These previous analyses dealt with the disambiguation problem: given a specific ambiguous observation of the environment, is there information provided by a given memory strategy that can disambiguate that observation to allow a correct decisionµ Here we extend this approach to cases where multiple memory systems can be strategically combined in different ways. Specifically, we analyze the disambiguation arising from three ways by which episodic-like memory retrieval might be cued (by another episodic-like memory, by a semantic association, or by working memory for some earlier observation. We also consider the disambiguation arising from holding earlier working memories, episodic-like memories or semantic associations in working memory. From these analyses we can begin to develop a quantitative hierarchy among memory systems in which stimulus-response memories and semantic associations provide no disambiguation while the episodic memory system provides the most flexible

  12. Use of information systems in Air Force medical treatment facilities in strategic planning and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, Glenn A; Platonova, Elena A; Musa, Philip F

    2006-02-01

    An exploratory study used Ansoff's strategic planning model as a framework to assess perceived effectiveness of information systems in supporting strategic business plan development at Air Force medical treatment facilities (MTFs). Results showed information systems were most effective in supporting historical trend analysis, strategic business plans appeared to be a balance of operational and strategic plans, and facilities perceived a greater need for new clinical, vice administrative, information systems to support strategic planning processes. Administrators believed information systems should not be developed at the local level and perceived information systems have the greatest impact on improving clinical quality outcomes, followed by ability to deliver cost effective care and finally, ability to increase market share.

  13. Microeconomics-based resource allocation in overlay networks by using non-strategic behavior modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Analoui, Morteza; Rezvani, Mohammad Hossein

    2011-01-01

    Behavior modeling has recently been investigated for designing self-organizing mechanisms in the context of communication networks in order to exploit the natural selfishness of the users with the goal of maximizing the overall utility. In strategic behavior modeling, the users of the network are assumed to be game players who seek to maximize their utility with taking into account the decisions that the other players might make. The essential difference between the aforementioned researches and this work is that it incorporates the non-strategic decisions in order to design the mechanism for the overlay network. In this solution concept, the decisions that a peer might make does not affect the actions of the other peers at all. The theory of consumer-firm developed in microeconomics is a model of the non-strategic behavior that we have adopted in our research. Based on it, we have presented distributed algorithms for peers' "joining" and "leaving" operations. We have modeled the overlay network as a competitive economy in which the content provided by an origin server can be viewed as commodity and the origin server and the peers who multicast the content to their downside are considered as the firms. On the other hand, due to the dual role of the peers in the overlay network, they can be considered as the consumers as well. On joining to the overlay economy, each peer is provided with an income and tries to get hold of the service regardless to the behavior of the other peers. We have designed the scalable algorithms in such a way that the existence of equilibrium price (known as Walrasian equilibrium price) is guaranteed.

  14. Strategic Expansion Models in Academic Radiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natesan, Rajni; Yang, Wei T; Tannir, Habib; Parikh, Jay

    2016-03-01

    In response to economic pressures, academic institutions in the United States and their radiology practices, are expanding into the community to build a larger network, thereby driving growth and achieving economies of scale. These economies of scale are being achieved variously via brick-and-mortar construction, community practice acquisition, and partnership-based network expansion. We describe and compare these three expansion models within a 4-part framework of: (1) upfront investment; (2) profitability impact; (3) brand impact; and (4) risk of execution. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Model of decision for the management of technology and risk in a port community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Durán

    2018-10-01

    Full Text Available Strategic management in a port system is complex since the Port Community has to coordinate actions and generate synergy among all the private actors that integrate the export and import logistics chains, trade associations and trade unions. Based on the opinion of the port experts and the analytical network process (ANP, the research identifies the relevant criteria for strategic, business and operational decision-making in the Port Community, in the technological and risk contexts. With the criteria found and considering the strategic alignment that is required, management indicators are constructed. Based on a generic model, a new strategic conceptual model (PORTGD of ANP for decision management is designed for the Port Community, a cause and effect analysis is carried out and a sensitization study is performed on the nodes. The discussion of the results and conclusions highlights the importance of technological investment, control of port security and good practices for the port system investigated.

  16. A strategic model for PV dissemination in Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiranvarodom, S. [Rajamangala Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Pathumthani (Thailand); Hill, R. [University of Northumbria, Newcastle Photovoltaics Applications Centre, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom); O' Keefe, P. [University of Northumbria, Dept. of Geography and Environmental Management, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom)

    1999-07-01

    The process of information dissemination is necessary for the successful implementation for photovoltaic (PV) programmes in developing countries, and it is essential to consider the strategies for implementation of a PV project to ensure that it will be successful. This paper proposes a strategic model for PV dissemination in Thailand and discusses the roles of key players in the implementation of the strategy and the responsibilities of these organisations. (Author)

  17. Strategic Management: Business Model Canvas for Start-Up Company

    OpenAIRE

    Sonninen, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Thesis is written about development of Kakunpala as a Start-Up Company, because development processes and ideas are the key factors for future success of the company. The aim of this thesis is to understand Strategic Management of the Company and Development processes,by using the SWOT analysis before and after development and by applying Business Model Canvas template to the Start-Up Company, and by describing Customer Journey: what relations Kakunpala has with clients and its processes...

  18. Decision tree modeling using R.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-08-01

    In machine learning field, decision tree learner is powerful and easy to interpret. It employs recursive binary partitioning algorithm that splits the sample in partitioning variable with the strongest association with the response variable. The process continues until some stopping criteria are met. In the example I focus on conditional inference tree, which incorporates tree-structured regression models into conditional inference procedures. While growing a single tree is subject to small changes in the training data, random forests procedure is introduced to address this problem. The sources of diversity for random forests come from the random sampling and restricted set of input variables to be selected. Finally, I introduce R functions to perform model based recursive partitioning. This method incorporates recursive partitioning into conventional parametric model building.

  19. Strategic Air Traffic Planning Using Eulerian Route Based Modeling and Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bombelli, Alessandro

    Due to a soaring air travel growth in the last decades, air traffic management has become increasingly challenging. As a consequence, planning tools are being devised to help human decision-makers achieve a better management of air traffic. Planning tools are divided into two categories, strategic and tactical. Strategic planning generally addresses a larger planning domain and is performed days to hours in advance. Tactical planning is more localized and is performed hours to minutes in advance. An aggregate route model for strategic air traffic flow management is presented. It is an Eulerian model, describing the flow between cells of unidirectional point-to-point routes. Aggregate routes are created from flight trajectory data based on similarity measures. Spatial similarity is determined using the Frechet distance. The aggregate routes approximate actual well-traveled traffic patterns. By specifying the model resolution, an appropriate balance between model accuracy and model dimension can be achieved. For a particular planning horizon, during which weather is expected to restrict the flow, a procedure for designing airborne reroutes and augmenting the traffic flow model is developed. The dynamics of the traffic flow on the resulting network take the form of a discrete-time, linear time-invariant system. The traffic flow controls are ground holding, pre-departure rerouting and airborne rerouting. Strategic planning--determining how the controls should be used to modify the future traffic flow when local capacity violations are anticipated--is posed as an integer programming problem of minimizing a weighted sum of flight delays subject to control and capacity constraints. Several tests indicate the effectiveness of the modeling and strategic planning approach. In the final, most challenging, test, strategic planning is demonstrated for the six western-most Centers of the 22-Center national airspace. The planning time horizon is four hours long, and there is

  20. An improved hybrid multi-criteria/multidimensional model for strategic industrial location selection: Casablanca industrial zones as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutkhoum, Omar; Hanine, Mohamed; Agouti, Tarik; Tikniouine, Abdessadek

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the issue of strategic industrial location selection in uncertain decision making environments for implanting new industrial corporation. In fact, the industrial location issue is typically considered as a crucial factor in business research field which is related to many calculations about natural resources, distributors, suppliers, customers, and most other things. Based on the integration of environmental, economic and social decisive elements of sustainable development, this paper presents a hybrid decision making model combining fuzzy multi-criteria analysis with analytical capabilities that OLAP systems can provide for successful and optimal industrial location selection. The proposed model mainly consists in three stages. In the first stage, a decision-making committee has been established to identify the evaluation criteria impacting the location selection process. In the second stage, we develop fuzzy AHP software based on the extent analysis method to assign the importance weights to the selected criteria, which allows us to model the linguistic vagueness, ambiguity, and incomplete knowledge. In the last stage, OLAP analysis integrated with multi-criteria analysis employs these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate, rank and select the strategic industrial location for implanting new business corporation in the region of Casablanca, Morocco. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of criteria weights and the preferences given by decision makers on the final rankings of strategic industrial locations.

  1. Modeling Human Elements of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    include factors such as personality, emotion , and level of expertise, which vary from individual to individual. The process of decision - making during... rational choice theories such as utility theory, to more descriptive psychological models that focus more on the process of decision - making ...descriptive nature, they provide a more realistic representation of human decision - making than the rationally based models. However these models do

  2. Business owner and manager’s attitudes towards financial decision-making and strategic planning: Evidence from Croatian SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Klačmer Čalopa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of the paper was to explore the attitude of business owners and managers in the small and medium sized companies (SMEs in Croatia toward financial decision-making and strategic planning. In addition, it is attempted to identify managers’ styles and entrepreneurial skills, as well as the level of their financial knowledge. Data was gathered using online questionnaire method and analyzed with standard tools of descriptive statistics. The research sample consisted of 106 respondents from SMEs in Croatia (14% response rate. Research results reveal that business owners and managers are concerned about financial results but, unfortunately, do not influence the financial decision-making in all of its stages. The study could contribute to a better understanding of attitudes of Croatian SMEs business owners and managers toward financial decision-making and strategic planning.

  3. Between Policy-Making and Planning SEA and Strategic Decision-Making in the Danish Energy Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    2011-01-01

    This article deals with the challenge of approaching decision-making processes through strategic environmental assessment (SEA). It is argued that the interaction between policy-making and planning in strategic decision-making processes is a neglected reason for problems with applying SEA......, as legislation and guidance on SEA primarily approach either the policy or plan level. To substantiate the argument, the extent of interaction is empirically investigated. Four contemporary decision-making processes in the Danish energy sector are mapped as a series of choices. Fundamental changes...... with considerable environmental impacts are decided these years, often without preceding SEA processes. The mapping shows a profound interaction between policy-making and planning. In this interaction, public consultation, systematic environmental analyses, and transparency on alternatives are primarily related...

  4. A conceptual framework for automating the operational and strategic decision-making process in the health care delivery system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruohonen, Toni; Ennejmy, Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Making reliable and justified operational and strategic decisions is a really challenging task in the health care domain. So far, the decisions have been made based on the experience of managers and staff, or they are evaluated with traditional methods, using inadequate data. As a result of this kind of decision-making process, attempts to improve operations usually have failed or led to only local improvements. Health care organizations have a lot of operational data, in addition to clinical data, which is the key element for making reliable and justified decisions. However, it is progressively problematic to access it and make usage of it. In this paper we discuss about the possibilities how to exploit operational data in the most efficient way in the decision-making process. We'll share our future visions and propose a conceptual framework for automating the decision-making process.

  5. The Risks of Strategic Decisions in the Sphere of Financial and Economic Security of Public-Private Partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solodovnik Olesia O.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying and substantiating the theoretical and methodological aspects of development, analysis and assessment of strategic decisions in the sphere of financial and economic security of public-private partnership (PPP in the context of the risks of their implementation. A study on the essence and characteristics of strategic decisions in the sphere of financial and economic security of PPP has led to the conclusion that each such decision should be considered and assessed in the context of the risks of its implementation, and the risk theory could be seen as the scientific basis for defining strategic alternatives and developing a criteria base for assessing them. The article proposes a list and systematization of the PPP risks that allow to: itemize the risks to the external and internal environment of PPP and to identify the prerequisites and sources of threats to the financial and economic interests of parties to the partnership; analyze and evaluate the strategic alternatives for risk distribution among partners in the context of implications for financial and economic security of PPP; determine the risks of achieving the objectives of the strategy for financial and economic security of PPP and to evaluate alternative strategies in terms of partners; account the potential occurrence and development of systemic risks and threats to the financial and economic security of PPP, as well as the use of complementary protective mechanisms; evaluate the results of a strategy to protect the financial and economic interests of parties to the PPP.

  6. Transformational Assessment: A Simplified Model of Strategic Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardwell, Rebecca

    2008-01-01

    Strategic planning is a way to evaluate a present situation and set a course for the future. While there is no dearth of literature on Strategic Planning, there appears to be reluctance on the part of K-12 educators to engage in strategic planning. Besides the cynicism about change, another roadblock to strategic planning is the time it takes.…

  7. STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

    2003-01-01

    Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

  8. Equilibrium relations and bipolar cognitive mapping for online analytical processing with applications in international relations and strategic decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Ran

    2003-01-01

    Bipolar logic, bipolar sets, and equilibrium relations are proposed for bipolar cognitive mapping and visualization in online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM). As cognitive models, cognitive maps (CMs) hold great potential for clustering and visualization. Due to the lack of a formal mathematical basis, however, CM-based OLAP and OLAM have not gained popularity. Compared with existing approaches, bipolar cognitive mapping has a number of advantages. First, bipolar CMs are formal logical models as well as cognitive models. Second, equilibrium relations (with polarized reflexivity, symmetry, and transitivity), as bipolar generalizations and fusions of equivalence relations, provide a theoretical basis for bipolar visualization and coordination. Third, an equilibrium relation or CM induces bipolar partitions that distinguish disjoint coalition subsets not involved in any conflict, disjoint coalition subsets involved in a conflict, disjoint conflict subsets, and disjoint harmony subsets. Finally, equilibrium energy analysis leads to harmony and stability measures for strategic decision and multiagent coordination. Thus, this work bridges a gap for CM-based clustering and visualization in OLAP and OLAM. Basic ideas are illustrated with example CMs in international relations.

  9. Introduction to Strategic Planning in Student Affairs: A Model for Process and Elements of a Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Shannon E.

    2010-01-01

    Planning from a strategic perspective has been a mainstay of organizational management for decades. Founded in the private sector, strategic planning is now embraced by the nonprofit world as a catalyst for sound resource allocation, transformative decision making, and motivating staff. Student affairs professionals who think, plan, and act…

  10. Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management. Planning for Effective Decision Making; Consequence Management and Transition to Recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The collective experience of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM), and in particular, the experience from the International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX) series, has shown that it is important to plan and to implement emergency response actions based on a guiding strategic vision. Within this context, Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management presents a framework of strategic planning elements to be considered by national emergency management authorities when establishing or enhancing processes for decision making, and when developing or implementing protection strategies. The focus is on nuclear or radiological emergency situations leading to complex preparedness and response conditions, involving multiple jurisdictions and significant international interfaces. The report is aimed at national emergency management authorities, international organisations and those who are seeking to improve the effectiveness of emergency management. Its goal is to provide insights into decision-making processes within existing emergency planning arrangements. It also highlights common areas of good practice in decision making. Specific areas for improvement, identified during the INEX-3 consequence management exercise, are included, particularly in support of decision making for countermeasures for consequence management and the transition to recovery. (authors)

  11. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  12. Robust Priority for Strategic Environmental Assessment with Incomplete Information Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daeryong Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates how the priority rankings for dam construction sites vary with multi-criteria decision making (MCDM techniques and generation approaches for incomplete information. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA seeks to recommend sustainable dam construction sites based on their environmental and ecological impacts in a long-term plan for dam construction (LPDC in South Korea. However, if specific information is missing, the SEA is less useful for choosing a dam construction site. In this study, we applied AHP, ELECTRE III, PROMETHEE II and Compromise Programming as MCDM techniques, and used binomial and uniform distributions to generate missing information. We considered five dam site selection situations and compared the results as they depended on both MCDM techniques and information generation methods. The binomial generation method showed the most obvious priorities. All MCDM techniques showed similar priorities in the dam site selection results except for ELECTREE III. The results demonstrate that selecting an appropriate MCDM technique is more important than the data generation method. However, using binomial distribution to generate missing information is more effective in providing a robust priority than uniform distribution, which is a commonly used technique.

  13. Strategic use of preference confirmation in group decision making: the role of competition and dissent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma, Claudia; Gilles, Ingrid; Butera, Fabrizio

    2013-03-01

    The present research investigates the moderating role of goal interdependence and dissent on individual preference confirmation in hidden-profile tasks. We propose that preference confirmation can be used strategically to deal with competition and dissent likely to arise in group decision making. In two studies, participants first received incomplete information about a car accident investigation, and then read a fictitious discussion with two other participants containing full information. The interaction with the fictitious participants was presented either as cooperative or competitive. We predicted and found preference confirmation to be higher in competition than cooperation, when initial preferences were dissenting (Studies 1 & 2), but to be higher in cooperation than in competition, when initial preferences were consensual (Study 2). Also, the increased versus decreased preference confirmation in competition with, respectively, dissent and no dissent were found to be predicted by self-enhancement strategies (Study 2). These findings contribute to a better understanding of the boundary conditions of preference confirmation in hidden profiles and shed a new light on the role of motivated information processing in these tasks. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

  14. Data for decision making: strategic information tools for hospital management during a pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farias, Daniel R; Raffo, Lucrecia; Bacigalupo, Silvia; Cremaschi, Maria; Vence, Liliana; Ramos, Susana; Salguero, Ana; Claudio, Martin; Meites, Elissa; Cubito, Alejandro

    2010-10-01

    During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Argentina's Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas, a referral center in the capital province of Buenos Aires, treated a large urban patient population. Beginning in April, after severe influenza had been reported in North America but before any suspected cases of H1N1 had been reported in Argentina, the authors formed a pandemic planning committee to direct our hospital's response. An important strategy of the management team was to create a single daily monitoring tool that could integrate multiple information sources. We describe our pandemic planning strategy so that it may serve as a template for other hospitals. We describe our integrated data management system and the indicators it measured. We also describe the iterative process used to develop these tools and the current versions we use in surveillance for possible new waves of pandemic influenza. We present 3 examples of strategic decision making applied to data from our integrated information system. Daily pandemic surveillance data motivated the planning committee to reallocate hospital resources to care for patients during the peak pandemic period. This report illustrates the importance of pandemic planning and advanced integrated information tools for management of a health care facility during a pandemic.

  15. Multidimensional Balanced Efficiency Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Petrillo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a multicriteria methodological approach, based on Balanced Scorecard (BSC and Analytic Network Process (ANP, is proposed to evaluate competitiveness performance in luxury sector. A set of specific key performance indicators (KPIs have been proposed. The contribution of our paper is to present the integration of two methodologies, BSC – a multiple perspective framework for performance assessment – and ANP – a decision-making tool to prioritize multiple performance perspectives and indicators and to generate a unified metric that incorporates diversified issues for conducting supply chain improvements. The BSC/ANP model is used to prioritize all performances within a luxury industry. A real case study is presented.

  16. Customer-Provider Strategic Alignment: A Maturity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luftman, Jerry; Brown, Carol V.; Balaji, S.

    This chapter presents a new model for assessing the maturity of a ­customer-provider relationship from a collaborative service delivery perspective: the Customer-Provider Strategic Alignment Maturity (CPSAM) Model. This model builds on recent research for effectively managing the customer-provider relationship in IT service outsourcing contexts and a validated model for assessing alignment across internal IT service units and their business customers within the same organization. After reviewing relevant literature by service science and information systems researchers, the six overarching components of the maturity model are presented: value measurements, governance, partnership, communications, human resources and skills, and scope and architecture. A key assumption of the model is that all of the components need be addressed to assess and improve customer-provider alignment. Examples of specific metrics for measuring the maturity level of each component over the five levels of maturity are also presented.

  17. Organizational Learning, Strategic Flexibility and Business Model Innovation: An Empirical Research Based on Logistics Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Yaodong; Cheng, Lin; Zhang, Jian

    Using the data of 237 Jiangsu logistics firms, this paper empirically studies the relationship among organizational learning capability, business model innovation, strategic flexibility. The results show as follows; organizational learning capability has positive impacts on business model innovation performance; strategic flexibility plays mediating roles on the relationship between organizational learning capability and business model innovation; interaction among strategic flexibility, explorative learning and exploitative learning play significant roles in radical business model innovation and incremental business model innovation.

  18. Informing vaccine decision-making: A strategic multi-attribute ranking tool for vaccines-SMART Vaccines 2.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knobler, Stacey; Bok, Karin; Gellin, Bruce

    2017-01-20

    SMART Vaccines 2.0 software is being developed to support decision-making among multiple stakeholders in the process of prioritizing investments to optimize the outcomes of vaccine development and deployment. Vaccines and associated vaccination programs are one of the most successful and effective public health interventions to prevent communicable diseases and vaccine researchers are continually working towards expanding targets for communicable and non-communicable diseases through preventive and therapeutic modes. A growing body of evidence on emerging vaccine technologies, trends in disease burden, costs associated with vaccine development and deployment, and benefits derived from disease prevention through vaccination and a range of other factors can inform decision-making and investment in new and improved vaccines and targeted utilization of already existing vaccines. Recognizing that an array of inputs influences these decisions, the strategic multi-attribute ranking method for vaccines (SMART Vaccines 2.0) is in development as a web-based tool-modified from a U.S. Institute of Medicine Committee effort (IOM, 2015)-to highlight data needs and create transparency to facilitate dialogue and information-sharing among decision-makers and to optimize the investment of resources leading to improved health outcomes. Current development efforts of the SMART Vaccines 2.0 framework seek to generate a weighted recommendation on vaccine development or vaccination priorities based on population, disease, economic, and vaccine-specific data in combination with individual preference and weights of user-selected attributes incorporating valuations of health, economics, demographics, public concern, scientific and business, programmatic, and political considerations. Further development of the design and utility of the tool is being carried out by the National Vaccine Program Office of the Department of Health and Human Services and the Fogarty International Center of the

  19. Model of modern strategic management of an enterprise: contents and components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.T. Raykovska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article investigates different interpretations and definitions of the concept of strategic management. It also aims to identify the ways of revealing the components and peculiarities of the concept.On the base of the critical analysis of economic literature the author singles out process, target, and complex approaches to the interpretation of the essence of strategic management and indicates that strategic management is a complex concept that encompasses management of strategic opportunities and operative management of problems in real time to respond to unpredictable changes fast. According to the modern understanding of strategic management the author singles out its main peculiarities which presuppose ensuring of quick response of an enterprise to the changes of external environment with the help of already developed strategic methods and models, strategic thinking of employees of an economic entity aimed at achieving its development strategy. The parameters of comparison of operating and strategic management are systematized. It is established that operating management is centered on the search for the ways of better use of enterprise resources, while strategic management looks to the needs and changes of external environment, tracking and adapting to its changes, search for new possibilities in competitive environment. The conceptual model of strategic management of an enterprise is formed. It is stated that the use of the model enables to determine the place of strategic analysis in the discussed system and to ensure the fulfillment of strategic plans.

  20. An investigation into the application of customer profitability analysis as a strategic decision-making tool in a hospitality environment

    OpenAIRE

    Noone, Breffni M

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of this study was to investigate the Applicability of Customer Profitability Analysis as a strategic decision-making technique in a hospitality environment. The study commenced with a review of literature in the fields of Yield Management, Customer Profitability Analysis (CPA) and Activity-Based Costing (ABC), with ABC being identified as an appropriate method of costing to use in CPA. Issues arising from the implementation of an Activity-Based CPA including the purpose ...

  1. Strategic Decision-making,Action Planning,Flexible Creation:A Philosophic Thinking on Chinese City Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Based on the rich experience in urban construction in China for decades,the author argues that urban planning is a process of flexible creation under the guidance of strategic decision-making and action planning and in accordance with local conditions in hope of creating better human settlements and a harmonious society at the same time.Efforts should be made to strengthen the general knowledge and universal truth on urban planning and transform them into public consensus.

  2. The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clift, Roland; Sim, Sarah; King, Henry

    2017-01-01

    The Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed...... in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors....

  3. Strategic Port Graph Rewriting: An Interactive Modelling and Analysis Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maribel Fernández

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We present strategic portgraph rewriting as a basis for the implementation of visual modelling and analysis tools. The goal is to facilitate the specification, analysis and simulation of complex systems, using port graphs. A system is represented by an initial graph and a collection of graph rewriting rules, together with a user-defined strategy to control the application of rules. The strategy language includes constructs to deal with graph traversal and management of rewriting positions in the graph. We give a small-step operational semantics for the language, and describe its implementation in the graph transformation and visualisation tool PORGY.

  4. Autogenerator-based modelling framework for development of strategic games simulations: rational pigs game extended.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabac, Robert; Radošević, Danijel; Magdalenić, Ivan

    2014-01-01

    When considering strategic games from the conceptual perspective that focuses on the questions of participants' decision-making rationality, the very issues of modelling and simulation are rarely discussed. The well-known Rational Pigs matrix game has been relatively intensively analyzed in terms of reassessment of the logic of two players involved in asymmetric situations as gluttons that differ significantly by their attributes. This paper presents a successful attempt of using autogenerator for creating the framework of the game, including the predefined scenarios and corresponding payoffs. Autogenerator offers flexibility concerning the specification of game parameters, which consist of variations in the number of simultaneous players and their features and game objects and their attributes as well as some general game characteristics. In the proposed approach the model of autogenerator was upgraded so as to enable program specification updates. For the purpose of treatment of more complex strategic scenarios, we created the Rational Pigs Game Extended (RPGE), in which the introduction of a third glutton entails significant structural changes. In addition, due to the existence of particular attributes of the new player, "the tramp," one equilibrium point from the original game is destabilized which has an influence on the decision-making of rational players.

  5. How Do We Teach Reading as a Strategic, Decision-Making Process?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellery, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    The following activities, Detail/Retell and Collaborate and Elaborate, adapted from the new IRA book "Creating Strategic Readers" (second edition), highlight how two of the five essential reading components are used in a comprehensive literacy classroom to create strategic readers. The activities also demonstrate how to engage and motivate…

  6. New, strategic outsourcing models to meet changing clinical development needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Janet; Minor, Michael

    2010-04-01

    The impact of increasing clinical costs and the need for more data to support higher efficacy demands and overcome regulatory hurdles for market entry means that every Company is faced with the challenge of how to do more with a smaller budget. As budgets get squeezed the pharmaceutical Industry has been looking at how to contain or reduce cost and support an increased number of projects. With the growing sophistication of outsourcing, this is an increasingly important area of focus. Some Pharmaceutical Companies have moved from tactical, case by case, outsourcing to new, more strategic relationships, which involve outsourcing functions that were historically held as core pharmaceutical functions. An increasing number of Sponsors are looking at strategic relationships which are based on more creative outsourcing approaches. As the need and sophistication of these outsourcing models and the sponsors / CROs involved in them, these approaches are becoming more transformational and need to be based on a strong partnership. Lessons learned from working with sponsors in a partnership model have been examined and two key challenges addressed in detail: the need for bilateral central control though a strong governance model and the importance of early planning and commitment.

  7. New, strategic outsourcing models to meet changing clinical development needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet Jones

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of increasing clinical costs and the need for more data to support higher efficacy demands and overcome regulatory hurdles for market entry means that every Company is faced with the challenge of how to do more with a smaller budget. As budgets get squeezed the pharmaceutical Industry has been looking at how to contain or reduce cost and support an increased number of projects. With the growing sophistication of outsourcing, this is an increasingly important area of focus. Some Pharmaceutical Companies have moved from tactical, case by case, outsourcing to new, more strategic relationships, which involve outsourcing functions that were historically held as core pharmaceutical functions. An increasing number of Sponsors are looking at strategic relationships which are based on more creative outsourcing approaches. As the need and sophistication of these outsourcing models and the sponsors / CROs involved in them, these approaches are becoming more transformational and need to be based on a strong partnership. Lessons learned from working with sponsors in a partnership model have been examined and two key challenges addressed in detail: the need for bilateral central control though a strong governance model and the importance of early planning and commitment.

  8. The influence of Markov decision process structure on the possible strategic use of working memory and episodic memory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric A Zilli

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Researchers use a variety of behavioral tasks to analyze the effect of biological manipulations on memory function. This research will benefit from a systematic mathematical method for analyzing memory demands in behavioral tasks. In the framework of reinforcement learning theory, these tasks can be mathematically described as partially-observable Markov decision processes. While a wealth of evidence collected over the past 15 years relates the basal ganglia to the reinforcement learning framework, only recently has much attention been paid to including psychological concepts such as working memory or episodic memory in these models. This paper presents an analysis that provides a quantitative description of memory states sufficient for correct choices at specific decision points. Using information from the mathematical structure of the task descriptions, we derive measures that indicate whether working memory (for one or more cues or episodic memory can provide strategically useful information to an agent. In particular, the analysis determines which observed states must be maintained in or retrieved from memory to perform these specific tasks. We demonstrate the analysis on three simplified tasks as well as eight more complex memory tasks drawn from the animal and human literature (two alternation tasks, two sequence disambiguation tasks, two non-matching tasks, the 2-back task, and the 1-2-AX task. The results of these analyses agree with results from quantitative simulations of the task reported in previous publications and provide simple indications of the memory demands of the tasks which can require far less computation than a full simulation of the task. This may provide a basis for a quantitative behavioral stoichiometry of memory tasks.

  9. The influence of Markov decision process structure on the possible strategic use of working memory and episodic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilli, Eric A; Hasselmo, Michael E

    2008-07-23

    Researchers use a variety of behavioral tasks to analyze the effect of biological manipulations on memory function. This research will benefit from a systematic mathematical method for analyzing memory demands in behavioral tasks. In the framework of reinforcement learning theory, these tasks can be mathematically described as partially-observable Markov decision processes. While a wealth of evidence collected over the past 15 years relates the basal ganglia to the reinforcement learning framework, only recently has much attention been paid to including psychological concepts such as working memory or episodic memory in these models. This paper presents an analysis that provides a quantitative description of memory states sufficient for correct choices at specific decision points. Using information from the mathematical structure of the task descriptions, we derive measures that indicate whether working memory (for one or more cues) or episodic memory can provide strategically useful information to an agent. In particular, the analysis determines which observed states must be maintained in or retrieved from memory to perform these specific tasks. We demonstrate the analysis on three simplified tasks as well as eight more complex memory tasks drawn from the animal and human literature (two alternation tasks, two sequence disambiguation tasks, two non-matching tasks, the 2-back task, and the 1-2-AX task). The results of these analyses agree with results from quantitative simulations of the task reported in previous publications and provide simple indications of the memory demands of the tasks which can require far less computation than a full simulation of the task. This may provide a basis for a quantitative behavioral stoichiometry of memory tasks.

  10. The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Clift

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Planetary Boundaries (PB framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed to generate practical tools. With this objective in mind, we analyse the recent literature and highlight three major scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the PB approach in decision-making: first, identification of thresholds or boundaries with associated metrics for different geographical scales; second, the need to frame approaches to allocate fair shares in the ‘safe operating space’ bounded by the PBs across the value chain and; third, the need for international bodies to co-ordinate the implementation of the measures needed to respect the Planetary Boundaries. For the first two of these challenges, we consider how they might be addressed for four PBs: climate change, freshwater use, biosphere integrity and chemical pollution and other novel entities. Four key opportunities are identified: (1 development of a common system of metrics that can be applied consistently at and across different scales; (2 setting ‘distance from boundary’ measures that can be applied at different scales; (3 development of global, preferably open-source, databases and models; and (4 advancing understanding of the interactions between the different PBs. Addressing the scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors.

  11. Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Kekytė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

  12. A Sociology Explanation of Strategic Decision Groups’ Cognitive Bias and Changes%战略决策团队认知偏好及其变化的社会学解释

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尚航标; 李卫宁

    2015-01-01

    战略决策团队的认知偏好对企业生存和发展具有决定性的影响作用,经济学和神经系统学在探索企业战略决策团队认知偏好问题上都有所局限。本文在阐述战略决策团队认知偏好理论内涵的基础上,分别从“社会认知神经经济学”、“新制度主义理论”、“角色心理”这三个社会学理论视角解释和探索战略决策团队认知偏好问题,进而讨论战略决策团队认知偏好的三角理论模型和认知偏好变化的综合理论模型。%Strategic decision groups’ cognitive bias plays a decisive role in firm survival and development ,and view s based on economics and neurophysiology have limitations some‐w hat on the exploration of strategic decision groups’ cognitive bias .Based on the analysis of the connotation of strategic decision groups’ cognitive bias theory ,this paper explains and explores strategic decision groups’ cognitive bias from three sociology perspectives ,namely social cognitive neuroeconomics ,new institutional economics ,and role commitment .Then it summarizes a three-factor theoretical model of strategic decision groups’ cognitive bias and a comprehensive theoretical model of changes in cognitive bias .

  13. An Extension of Neutrosophic AHP–SWOT Analysis for Strategic Planning and Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Abdel-Basset

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Every organization seeks to set strategies for its development and growth and to do this, it must take into account the factors that affect its success or failure. The most widely used technique in strategic planning is SWOT analysis. SWOT examines strengths (S, weaknesses (W, opportunities (O and threats (T, to select and implement the best strategy to achieve organizational goals. The chosen strategy should harness the advantages of strengths and opportunities, handle weaknesses, and avoid or mitigate threats. SWOT analysis does not quantify factors (i.e., strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and it fails to rank available alternatives. To overcome this drawback, we integrated it with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP. The AHP is able to determine both quantitative and the qualitative elements by weighting and ranking them via comparison matrices. Due to the vague and inconsistent information that exists in the real world, we applied the proposed model in a neutrosophic environment. A real case study of Starbucks Company was presented to validate our model.

  14. Modelling farmer decision-making: The case of the Dutch pork sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrosius, F.H.W.; Hofstede, G.J.; Bock, B.B.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Beulens, A.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework that models farmers’ strategic decision making, taking into account that farmers adapt to institutional changes, given the social structure in which they are embedded. Design/methodology/approach – First, a theoretical framework was

  15. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  16. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  17. Collaborating with Design Consultancy firms for Effective Strategic Decision-Making in New Product Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calabretta, G.; Gemser, G.; Wijnberg, N.M.; Hekkert, P.P.M.

    2013-01-01

    To contain risks and increase the profitability of innovation efforts, firms frequently engage in joint innovation activities with external sources of knowledge, like design consultancies. Innovation literature has given limited consideration to the strategic role that design consultancies can play

  18. Strategic Decisions and Implications of the German Assault on Norway in 1940

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Amundsen, Steinar

    2005-01-01

    ... several objectives along the long Norwegian seaboard and in the deep Norwegian fjords. Ultimately setting the preconditions for a long-term occupation of Norway, Weseruebung was an operational success and secured strategic advantages for Germany...

  19. PREMISES FOR A MODEL OF DECISION – MAKING ON THE FINANCING OF A PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popovici Ioana

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The classical theory of finance is based on the premises of rationality and maximizing profits that accompany economic decision-making. Complementarily, the modern theory of behavioral finance studies the effect of emotional and psychological factors of decision- maker on the choice of financing sources for economic activities. In opposition with the classical perspective, the contemporary theory of finance brings up to the stage various aspects of decision making, including elements of strategic behavior towards risk. All these contradictory elements are used as premises for modeling the decision making process of financing a project.

  20. Trends and new business models in the portuguese fashion industry: a strategic innovation perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Queirós, David; Afonso, Paulo; Vieira, Filipa Dionísio

    2013-01-01

    This research project focuses on the discussion of trends and new business models for the textile and clothing industry in general and for the fashion industry, in particular, using tools and an approach supported on strategic innovation. A documentary analysis was performed and they were conducted a series of semi-structured interviews. It was noted the importance of the strategic analysis and particularly strategic innovation for the design of new successful business models. Main findings a...

  1. Integrating market share models with network optimizing models for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, L.D.; Moses, S.W.

    1991-01-01

    Mathematical models of market share are constructed to describe the distribution of petroleum products from pipeline terminals, water terminals and refineries in the midcontinental United States. Network distribution models are developed to analyse the constraints and economics of alternative distribution systems. This paper describes how the two types of models were integrated for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

  2. Development of a district information system for water management planning and strategic decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loukas, A.; Tzabiras, J.; Spiliotopoulos, M.; Kokkinos, K.; Fafoutis, C.; Mylopoulos, N.

    2015-06-01

    The overall objective of this work is the development of a District Information System (DIS) which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of a district day-to-day water management as well as for planning and strategic decisionmaking. The DIS was developed from a GIS-based modeling approach, which integrates a generic crop model and a hydraulic model of the transport/distribution system, using land use maps generated by Landsat TM imagery. The main sub-objectives are: (i) the development of an operational algorithm to retrieve crop evapotranspiration from remote sensing data, (ii) the development of an information system with friendly user interface for the data base, the crop module and the hydraulic module and (iii) the analysis and validation of management scenarios from model simulations predicting the respective behavior. The Lake Karla watershed is used in this study, but the overall methodology could be used as a basis for future analysis elsewhere. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive monthly actual evapotranspiration (ET) values from Landsat TM imagery. Meteorological data from the archives of the Institute for Research and Technology, Thessaly (I.RE.TE.TH) has also been used. The methodology was developed using high quality Landsat TM images during 2007 growing season. Monthly ET values are used as an input to CROPWAT model. Outputs of CROPWAT model are then used as input for WEAP model. The developed scenario is based on the actual situation of the surface irrigation network of the Local Administration of Land Reclamation (LALR) of Pinios for the year of 2007. The DIS is calibrated with observed data of this year and the district parameterization is conducted based on the actual operation of the network. The operation of the surface irrigation network of Pinios LALR is simulated using Technologismiki Works, while the operation of closed pipe irrigation network of Lake Karla LALR is simulated using Watercad. Four

  3. A neural model of decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Torben

    2008-01-01

    Background: A descriptive neuroeconomic model is aimed for relativity of the concept of economic man to empirical science.Method: A 4-level client-server-integrator model integrating the brain models of McLean and Luria is the general framework for the model of empirical findings.Results: Decision making relies on integration across brain levels of emotional intelligence (LU) and logico-matematico intelligence (RIA), respectively. The integrated decision making formula approaching zero by bot...

  4. Environmental standards as strategic outcomes: A simple model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Rabindra N.; Pal, Rupayan

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the strategic nature of choice of environmental standards considering both local and global pollution under alternative regimes of international trade. It also compares and contrasts the strategic equilibrium environmental standards and levels of pollution, local and global, with the world optimum levels. It shows that, in case of open economies, environmental standards can be either strategic substitutes or strategic complements. On the contrary, in case of closed economies, environmental standards are always strategic substitutes. It also shows that the strategic equilibrium environmental standards in case of open economies are higher than the world optimum in certain situations. Whereas, in absence of international trade, countries set, in equilibrium, lower environmental standards than the world optimum. (author)

  5. Strategic Models and the Response of Government Agencies to Extreme Emergencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casler, Catherine; Pierides, Dean

    Government agencies that are tasked with responding to extreme emergencies are constantly battling with the tensions and trade-offs of centralized control versus decentralized decision-making. Many of today’s emergency management organizations are a product of World War II and as such they have...... by the growth of managerialism, these models attend to very different organizational realities from those of the military and of civil service. This is over and above the reduction of specificity within management and organizational theories that already characterizes them. In this paper, we focus on strategy...... and address how military and strategic management models organize the response of government agencies to extreme emergencies whilst also failing to address their core organizational problems. We are interested in the relatively recent creation of centralized organizations like the US Federal Emergency...

  6. Strategic Responsiveness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Carsten; Juul Andersen, Torben

    decision making is often conceived as ‘standing on the two feet’ of deliberate or intended strategic decisions by top management and emergent strategic decisions pursued by lower-level managers and employees. In this view, the paper proposes that bottom-up initiatives have a hard time surfacing...... in hierarchical organizations and that lowerlevel managers and employees, therefore, pursue various strategies to bypass the official strategy processes to act on emerging strategic issues and adapt to changing environmental conditions.......The analysis of major resource committing decisions is central focus in the strategy field, but despite decades of rich conceptual and empirical research we still seem distant from a level of understanding that can guide corporate practices under dynamic and unpredictable conditions. Strategic...

  7. PRACTICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC MARKETING PLAN FOR MICRO AND SMALL TRANSFORMATION COMPANIES IN LAGOS DE MORENO, JALISCO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edith Ariadna Lozano-González

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A plan is designed to increase reaction capacity and leads the manager to a more in-depth knowledge of the company's own reality. The strategic marketing plan has as its fundamental purpose to express clearly and systematically the variables chosen by the company, these variants must be translated into decisions and programs of actions. The designed model is pragmatic, simple and adaptable for micro and small transformation companies that initiate in the strategic marketing planning, with the purpose of habituating them in planning and to increase the reaction capacity that favors their commercial life. This model is based on a documentary research that collects and analyzes the different processes of strategic marketing planning by different authors, developing a methodology for the micro and small entrepreneur. The model is a sheet that describes the points on which a micro and small transformation company identifies opportunity areas based on information feedback generated from the internal microenvironment and external macroenvironment. The sheet is a design inspired by the CANVAS business model that covers six areas that reflects the logic of a strategic planning process based on the marketing mix.

  8. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Bostenaru Dan

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  9. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru Dan, M. D.

    2004-08-01

    Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control) only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  10. Safe models for risky decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steingröver, H.M.

    2017-01-01

    In everyday life, we often have to decide between options that differ in their immediate and long-term consequences. Would you, for example, opt for a delicious piece of cake or rather eat a healthy apple? To investigate how people make risky decisions, this thesis focuses on the Iowa gambling task

  11. Improved TOPSIS decision model for NPP emergencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jin; Liu Feng; Huang Lian

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,an improved decision model is developed for its use as a tool to respond to emergencies at nuclear power plants. Given the complexity of multi-attribute emergency decision-making on nuclear accident, the improved TOPSIS method is used to build a decision-making model that integrates subjective weight and objective weight of each evaluation index. A comparison between the results of this new model and two traditional methods of fuzzy hierarchy analysis method and weighted analysis method demonstrates that the improved TOPSIS model has a better evaluation effect. (authors)

  12. Cognitive motivations of free riding and cooperation and impaired strategic decision making in schizophrenia during a public goods game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Dongil; Kim, Yang-Tae; Jeong, Jaeseung

    2013-01-01

    Schizophrenia is generally characterized by various positive and negative symptoms that are accompanied by significant social dysfunction. Various researchers investigated the functional impairments in schizophrenia including impaired theory of mind (TOM), poor integration of affective and cognitive information, and malfunctioning of adaptive and strategic learning process. However, most of the studies were limited to simplified cognitive tests or computerized choice games that exclude real social interaction. The aim of the current study was to investigate human strategies based on the incentives and particularly the cognitive and emotional motivations of free riding. We examined the decision patterns of 41 healthy subjects (HSs) and 37 schizophrenia patients (SZ) during the public goods game (PGG), one of the games simulating human cooperation and free riding in group interactions. Strategic decision processes during the iterative binary PGG were assessed in terms of cognitive understanding, loss sensitivity, and TOM. We found that greed and loss sensitivity both motivated free-riding behavior in the HS, but that they were more vulnerable to greedy incentives than to possible loss. More significantly, the SZ clearly displayed a lower prevalence of free riding and distinct decision patterns from HS. Nonstrategic and unexpectedly low free ridings in the SZ likely arise from poor integration of cognitive and affective information. We suggest that loss sensitivity and TOM as well as cognitive understanding are involved in regulation of the free riding and cooperative behavior.

  13. The Application of a Decision-making Approach based on Fuzzy ANP and TOPSIS for Selecting a Strategic Supplier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesri Govindaraju

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Supplier selection becomes very important when used in the context of strategic partnerships because of the long-term orientation of the relationship. This paper describes the application of a decision-making approach for selecting a strategic partner (supplier. The approach starts with defining a set of criteria that fits the company’s condition. In the next steps, a combination of fuzzy-ANP and TOPSIS methods is used to determine the weight for each criterion and rank all the alternatives. The application of the approach in an Indonesian manufacturing company showed that the three factors that got the highest weight were “geographical location”, “current operating performance”, and “reliability”. Geographical location got the highest weight because it affects many other factors such as reaction to changes in demand, after-sales service, and delivery lead-time. Application of the approach helps decision-makers to gain effectiveness and efficiency in the decision-making process because it facilitates them to express their group’s collective preferences while also providing opportunities for members to express their individual preferences. Future research can be directed at combining qualitative and quantitative criteria to develop the best criteria and methods for the selection of the best suppliers based on fuzzy ANP and TOPSIS.

  14. Designing a decision support model for the LNG market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelen, Steve; Dullaert, Wout

    2010-01-01

    As the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market is supply-driven and subject to longterm contracts, both liquefaction companies and shipowners need to make strategic decisions on fleet chartering requirements. These planning decisions become ever more difficult in light of the transformations permeating

  15. An Elaboration of a Strategic Alignment Model of University Information Systems based on SAM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ahriz

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Information system is a guarantee of the universities' ability to anticipate the essential functions to their development and durability. The alignment of information system, one of the pillars of IT governance, has become a necessity. In this paper, we consider the problem of strategic alignment model implementation in Moroccan universities. Literature revealed that few studies have examined strategic alignment in the public sector, particularly in higher education institutions. Hence we opted for an exploratory approach that aims to better understanding the strategic alignment and to evaluate the degree of its use within Moroccan universities. The data gained primarily through interviews with top managers and IT managers reveal that the alignment is not formalized and that it would be appropriate to implement an alignment model. It is found that the implementation of our proposed model can help managers to maximize returns of IT investment and to increase their efficiency.

  16. Decision modeling and acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    compensation value of a human life and a public money equivalent of a human life, where the last value usually is considerably larger than the first value, it is possible from the decision analysis to determine an upper limit that the public should impose on the ratio of the owner´s expected loss rate......) that combines wealth in terms of Gross Domestic Product per person, life expectancy at birth, and yearly work time into a single number. The philosophy behind the published evaluations is that the prevention of a loss of a life is counteracted by a cost such that the LQI remains unchanged (Skjong R, Ronold K......; Decision Analysis; Life quality index; Random interest rate; Risk aversion; Socio-economic value; Uncertainty aversion...

  17. Intuitionistic preference modeling and interactive decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2014-01-01

    This book offers an in-depth and comprehensive introduction to the priority methods of intuitionistic preference relations, the consistency and consensus improving procedures for intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches to group decision making based on intuitionistic preference relations, the approaches and models for interactive decision making with intuitionistic fuzzy information, and the extended results in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environments.

  18. Modeling as a Decision-Making Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiler-Baxter, Sarah K.; Stephens, D. Christopher; Baxter, Wesley A.; Barlow, Angela T.

    2017-01-01

    The goal in this article is to support teachers in better understanding what it means to model with mathematics by focusing on three key decision-making processes: Simplification, Relationship Mapping, and Situation Analysis. The authors use the Theme Park task to help teachers develop a vision of how students engage in these three decision-making…

  19. Solid Waste Management Holistic Decision Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...

  20. Seven business models for decision management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Eline de Haan; Koen Smit

    2016-01-01

    Research, advisory companies, consultants and system integrators all predict that a lot of money will be earned with decision management (business rules, algorithms and analytics). But how can you actually make money with decision management or in other words: Which business models are exactly

  1. Financial Indicators in Strategic Decision Making: Recommended Practices for Financial Officers at Small Private Colleges and Universities in the Midwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reissenweber, Beth

    2012-01-01

    This study explored whether financial leaders and institutional governing boards use financial indicators as a tool to inform decision making, solely as a compliance measurement tool, or not at all. The purpose of this qualitative study was two-fold to: (a) identify the use of financial indicators in strategic decision making, and (b) investigate…

  2. Model of strategic planning in active systems | Nasim | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Annotation The work is dedicated to the mathematical formulation of the needing for strategic planning in active systems. At the same time, the possibility of the TAC (theory of active systems) for an assessment of conditions of effective strategic planning and development of an active system are shown. Keywords Active ...

  3. On the impact of optimisation models in maintenance decision making: the state of the art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dekker, Rommert; Scarf, Philip A.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the state of the art in applications of maintenance optimisation models. After giving a short introduction to the area, we consider several ways in which models may be used to optimise maintenance, such as case studies, operational and strategic decision support systems, and give examples of each of them. Next we discuss several areas where the models have been applied successfully. These include civil structure and aeroplane maintenance. From a comparative point of view, we discuss future prospects

  4. Financial Mechanism for the Implementation of Strategic and Operational Financial Decisions of Modern Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikeriasova, Veronika V.; Ordov, Konstantin V.; Khvostenko, Oleg A.

    2016-01-01

    In modern conditions of world depression, it is urgent for increasing the efficiency of the financial mechanism. Company's future depends on the correct choice of the financial mechanism strategy. The article deals with the issues of improving the financial mechanism of enterprises in the implementation of strategic and operational financial…

  5. Improving innovation strategic decision-making through the collaboration with design consultancies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calabretta, G.; Gemser, G.; Wijnberg, N.; Hekkert, P.P.M.

    2012-01-01

    Innovation and design literature have given limited consideration to the strategic role of design consultancies in the innovation processes of their clients. A plausible explanation is the difficulty to assess the quality of design consultancies’ output, given the intangibility of the output itself

  6. Benchmarking 10 Major Canadian Universities at the Divisional Level: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Roland

    2010-01-01

    A consortium of 10 Canadian research-intensive universities launched a data exchange program in 1999 to share information that could be used to identify and evaluate the best practices of each institution and to help each institution position itself strategically to achieve its mission. One part of the program was devoted to collecting…

  7. Rethinking schools of public health: a strategic alliance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moloughney, Brent W; Skinner, Harvey A

    2006-01-01

    Canada is in the midst of rejuvenation of public health organizations, mandates and infrastructure. Major planning exercises are underway regarding public health human resources, where academic institutions have a key role to play. To what extent could schools of public health be part of the solution? Many universities across Canada are considering or in the process of implementing MPH programs (some 17 programs planned and/or underway) and possible schools of public health. However, concerns are raised about critical mass, quality and standards. We encourage innovation and debate about ways to enhance collaborative and structural arrangements for education programs. A school of public health model might emerge from this, but so too might other models. Also, novel types of organizational structure need consideration. One example is a "strategic alliance" model that is broad-based, integrative and adaptive--building on the interdisciplinary focus needed for addressing public health concerns in the 21st century. From our perspective, the central question is: what (new) types of organizational structures and, equally important, collaborative networks will enable Canada to strengthen its public health workforce so that it may better address local and global challenges to public health?

  8. Strategic management in urban environment using SWOT and QSPM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pazouki

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable urban development is a new concept of fundamental environmental metropolitan management that not only creates the demand for changing the concepts of economic development, but also affects social development. The current study  provides  a conceptual model of a sustainable environment pattern In District 22 of Tehran that depends on the relationship between environment and economy, and a network of urban function, which  Included transport infrastructure and community centers and economic and regional level in support of the ecological services in Tehran. This landscape often  had discrepancies  with the development of the city between the layers and the creation of ecological fragile areas. The main objective of the study was to determine the sustainability indicators and create a future development  model  for District 22 of Tehran. The data was collected by having a review of similar studies and field research on the subject and therefore the effective factors were identified. After accomplished proceedings, the questionnaire was prepared and the results were used in SWOT charts' grading after analyzing at interior and exterior matrix. Ultimately, quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM was performed based on the results and analysis. This process provided a comprehensive model for sustainable urban development as sustainable development urban landscape pattern.

  9. Geomechanical Simulation of Bayou Choctaw Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Model Calibration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Byoung [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    A finite element numerical analysis model has been constructed that consists of a realistic mesh capturing the geometries of Bayou Choctaw (BC) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site and multi - mechanism deformation ( M - D ) salt constitutive model using the daily data of actual wellhead pressure and oil - brine interface. The salt creep rate is not uniform in the salt dome, and the creep test data for BC salt is limited. Therefore, the model calibration is necessary to simulate the geomechanical behavior of the salt dome. The cavern volumetric closures of SPR caverns calculated from CAVEMAN are used for the field baseline measurement. The structure factor, A 2 , and transient strain limit factor, K 0 , in the M - D constitutive model are used for the calibration. The A 2 value obtained experimentally from the BC salt and K 0 value of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) salt are used for the baseline values. T o adjust the magnitude of A 2 and K 0 , multiplication factors A2F and K0F are defined, respectively. The A2F and K0F values of the salt dome and salt drawdown skins surrounding each SPR cavern have been determined through a number of back fitting analyses. The cavern volumetric closures calculated from this model correspond to the predictions from CAVEMAN for six SPR caverns. Therefore, this model is able to predict past and future geomechanical behaviors of the salt dome, caverns, caprock , and interbed layers. The geological concerns issued in the BC site will be explained from this model in a follow - up report .

  10. Satisficing in Split-Second Decision Making Is Characterized by Strategic Cue Discounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M.; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A.; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through "satisficing," fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of…

  11. Multi-criteria decision making on strategic selection of wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Amy H.I. [Department of Industrial Engineering and System Management, Chung Hua University, Hsinchu (China); Chen, Hsing Hung [Faculty of Management and Administration, Macau University of Science and Technology, Taipa (Macau); Kang, He-Yau [Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, National Chin-Yi University of Technology, Taiping, Taichung (China)

    2009-01-15

    With maturity of advanced technologies and urgent requirement for maintaining a healthy environment with reasonable price, China is moving toward a trend of generating electricity from renewable wind resources. How to select a suitable wind farm becomes an important focus for stakeholders. This paper first briefly introduces wind farm and then develops its critical success criteria. A new multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) associated with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR), is proposed to help select a suitable wind farm project. Multiple factors that affect the success of wind farm operations are analyzed by taking into account experts' opinions, and a performance ranking of the wind farms is generated. (author)

  12. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  13. Introduction to Modeling of Buying Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gruenwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Buying decision models of customers to adjust the competitiveness of organizations have been a challenge for marketing disciplines for several generations. This topic has been explored by researchers and academics in past years, and quite an extensive theoretical base exists with a number of approaches for dealing with this challenge.This paper presents some approaches for creating a customer decision model, and provides experimental results from an electronic investigation intended to build the Kano Model; to prove an ability to understand the modeling principle; and to find out the interpretation of the examined demand in a specific market segment involving students of a technical university. The last section of the paper contains a brief introduction to Choice-Based Modeling with Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (CBC, which was tailored for modeling purchasing decisions.

  14. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  15. Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

  16. Evaluating the impact of strategic personnel policies using a MILP model: The public university case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torre, R. de la; Lusa, A.; Mateo, M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the impact of diverse personnel policies around personnel promotion in the design of the strategic staff plan for a public university. The strategic staff planning consists in the determination of the size and composition of the workforce for an organization. Design/methodology/approach: The staff planning is solved using a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The MILP model represents the organizational structure of the university, the personnel categories and capacity decisions, the demand requirements, the required service level and budget restrictions. All these aspects are translated into a set of data, as well as the parameters and constraints building up the mathematical model for optimization. The required data for the model is adopted from a Spanish public university. Findings: The development of appropriate policies for personnel promotion can effectively reduce the number of dismissals while proposing a transition towards different preferable workforce structures in the university. Research limitations/implications: The long term staff plan for the university is solved by the MILP model considering a time horizon of 8 years. For this time horizon, the required input data is derived from current data of the university. Different scenarios are proposed considering different temporal trends for input data, such as in demand and admissible promotional ratios for workers. Originality/value: The literature review reports a lack of formalized procedures for staff planning in universities taking into account, at the same time, the regulations on hiring, dismissals, promotions and the workforce heterogeneity, all considered to optimize workforce size and composition addressing not only an economic criteria, but also the required workforce expertise and the quality in the service offered. This paper adopts a formalized procedure developed by the authors in previous works, and exploits it to assess the

  17. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Stiglic

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. METHODS: This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. RESULTS: The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. CONCLUSIONS: The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets

  18. Comprehensive decision tree models in bioinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiglic, Gregor; Kocbek, Simon; Pernek, Igor; Kokol, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly

  19. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.

  20. An Extension of Neutrosophic AHP–SWOT Analysis for Strategic Planning and Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed Abdel-Basset; Mai Mohamed; Florentin Smarandache

    2018-01-01

    Every organization seeks to set strategies for its development and growth and to do this, it must take into account the factors that affect its success or failure. The most widely used technique in strategic planning is SWOT analysis. SWOT examines strengths (S), weaknesses (W), opportunities (O) and threats (T), to select and implement the best strategy to achieve organizational goals. The chosen strategy should harness the advantages of strengths and opportunities, handle weaknesses, and av...

  1. The Study of Strategic Industrial Planning for Using Model SWOT

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Ali Abdolvand; Amin Asadollahi

    2012-01-01

    Organizations to maintain and achieve optimal growth and development and increase its competitiveness need to be a comprehensive and coherent plan for the mission and goals of the strategic plan. The purpose of this study is providing strategic planning and optimal strategies for using SWOT. The company is investigating the territory south of the oil industry. The questionnaire has been used as a research tool containing the questions is 138. Research data from interviews with managers, exper...

  2. Multi-criteria approach to support strategically sustainable decisions in organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Diogho Heuer de Carvalho

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Keeping the social and environmental conditions in a favorable conservation status for allowing the society to develop itself without restrictions is the central idea which underpins the sustainability concept. Different spheres such as media, academia and business organizations started to give more importance to the study of sustainability, once it directly affects aspects that influence the economy in the world. Organizationally, the use of sustainable strategies can bring returns in favor of a healthy development and a conscious culture about the waste as well as reflecting how organizations connect with society and the environment. The objective of this work is to propose a model for prioritizing strategies to support the creation of an environment and a culture based on sustainability in organizations. This model has four steps, beginning with the problem structuring, including the definition of criteria and alternatives, the application of a multi-criteria method for prioritization, and finally, the implementation of the alternatives according to the decision maker opinion as well as on prioritization results.

  3. Using electronic patient records to inform strategic decision making in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Elizabeth; Sullivan, Frank; Watt, Graham; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Donnan, Peter T

    2004-01-01

    Although absolute risk of death associated with raised blood pressure increases with age, the benefits of treatment are greater in elderly patients. Despite this, the 'rule of halves' particularly applies to this group. We conducted a randomised controlled trial to evaluate different levels of feedback designed to improve identification, treatment and control of elderly hypertensives. Fifty-two general practices were randomly allocated to either: Control (n=19), Audit only feedback (n=16) or Audit plus Strategic feedback, prioritising patients by absolute risk (n=17). Feedback was based on electronic data, annually extracted from practice computer systems. Data were collected for 265,572 patients, 30,345 aged 65-79. The proportion of known hypertensives in each group with BP recorded increased over the study period and the numbers of untreated and uncontrolled patients reduced. There was a significant difference in mean systolic pressure between the Audit plus Strategic and Audit only groups and significantly greater control in the Audit plus Strategic group. Providing patient-specific practice feedback can impact on identification and management of hypertension in the elderly and produce a significant increase in control.

  4. Complexity Science: A Mechanism for Strategic Foresight and Resiliency in National Security Decision-Making.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, Mark R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of data and myriad of options, decision support teams are increasingly turning to complexity science for improved analysis and better insight into the potential impact of policy decisions. While complexity science has great potential, it has only proven useful in limited case s and when properly applied. In advance of more widespread use, a national - level effort to refine complexity science and more rigorously establish its technical underpinnings is recommended.

  5. Satisficing in split-second decision making is characterized by strategic cue discounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias

    2016-12-01

    Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through satisficing, fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of information (cues) while ignoring others. However, the decision-making strategies we adopt under uncertainty and time pressure, for example during emergencies that demand split-second choices, are presently unknown. To characterize these decision strategies quantitatively, the present study examined how people solve a novel multicue probabilistic classification task under varying time pressure, by tracking shifts in decision strategies using variational Bayesian inference. We found that under low time pressure, participants correctly weighted and integrated all available cues to arrive at near-optimal decisions. With increasingly demanding, subsecond time pressures, however, participants systematically discounted a subset of the cue information by dropping the least informative cue(s) from their decision making process. Thus, the human cognitive apparatus copes with uncertainty and severe time pressure by adopting a "drop-the-worst" cue decision making strategy that minimizes cognitive time and effort investment while preserving the consideration of the most diagnostic cue information, thus maintaining "good-enough" accuracy. This advance in our understanding of satisficing strategies could form the basis of predicting human choices in high time pressure scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. A model of strategic marketing alliances for hospices: vertical, internal, osmotic alliances and the complete model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starnes, B J; Self, D R

    1999-01-01

    This article develops two previous research efforts. William J. Winston (1994, 1995) has proposed a set of strategies by which health care organizations can benefit from forging strategic alliances. Raadt and Self (1997) have proposed a classification model of alliances including horizontal, vertical, internal, and osmotic. In the second of two articles, this paper presents a model of vertical, internal, and osmotic alliances. Advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed. Finally, the complete alliance system model is presented.

  7. A decision model for planetary missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.; Brigadier, W. L.

    1976-01-01

    Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

  8. The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Evaluation of its Potential as a Strategic Planning Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas H. Naylor; Francis Tapon

    1982-01-01

    In this paper we provide a summary of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and point out how it might possibly be used as a tool for strategic planning by corporations that own a portfolio of businesses. We also point out some of the assumptions underlying the CAPM which must be satisfied if it is to be used for strategic planning. Next we include a critical appraisal of the CAPM as a strategic planning tool. Finally, we state the case for linking competitive strategy models, CAPM models, a...

  9. Power to Do...What? Department Heads' Decision Autonomy and Strategic Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozeman, Barry; Fay, Daniel; Gaughan, Monica

    2013-01-01

    Using questionnaire data from the 2010 Survey of Academic Chairs, the study focuses on decision autonomy, a component of the power wielded by science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) department chairs in U.S. research extensive universities. A "power index" is developed to measure chairs' decision autonomy, specifically their…

  10. Strategic environmental assessment and the limits to rationality in decision making processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone

    The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA.......The paper focueses on the subject of rationality in decision making processes and the implications for the integration of SEA....

  11. Using More of Your Existing Knowledge to Make Better Strategic Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Erich N.

    2008-01-01

    We contend that managers make better decisions when they are better able to tap into their vast storehouses of knowledge than their peers can. More specifically, we contend that accessing their tacit knowledge has the most noticeable and positive impact on their decision quality. Furthermore, techniques for better accessing knowledge can be…

  12. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  13. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  14. Risk Decision Making Based on Decision-theoretic Rough Set: A Three-way View Decision Model

    OpenAIRE

    Huaxiong Li; Xianzhong Zhou

    2011-01-01

    Rough set theory has witnessed great success in data mining and knowledge discovery, which provides a good support for decision making on a certain data. However, a practical decision problem always shows diversity under the same circumstance according to different personality of the decision makers. A simplex decision model can not provide a full description on such diverse decisions. In this article, a review of Pawlak rough set models and probabilistic rough set models is presented, and a ...

  15. Strategic plan modelling by hospital senior administration to integrate diversity management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, John J

    2010-11-01

    Limited research suggests that some hospital senior administrators and chief executive officers (CEOs) have employed a strategic planning function to achieve diversity management practices. As the hospital industry struggles with how to integrate diversity practices to improve patient satisfaction, increase the quality of care and enhance clinical outcomes for minority populations, understanding the planning process involved in this endeavour becomes significant for senior hospital administrators. What is not well understood is what this strategic planning process represents and how it is applied to integrate diversity management. Scant research exists about the type of strategic models that hospital CEOs employ when they wish to reposition their organizations through diversity management. This study examines the strategic planning models used by senior administrators to integrate diversity management for an institutional-wide agenda. A qualitative survey process was used for CEOs in the states of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The key research questions dealt with what type of strategic plan approach senior administrators used for integrating diversity management and what rationale they used to pursue this. Significant differences were reported between three types of strategic plan modelling used by CEOs. Also, when comparing past and current practices over time, such differences existed. The need to integrate diversity management is underscored by this study. How senior hospital administrators apply strategic plan models and what impact these approaches have represent the major implications that this study offers.

  16. DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT TOOL IN A THERMAL POWER PLANT USING ABC AND BSC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi Dwivedi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In today’s dynamic, uncertain and highly competitive business environment, the long term success of an organization critically depends on the perceptions, choices and actions of its managers regarding their strategies. Activity based costing (ABC and balanced scorecard (BSC are the modern day management approaches acknowledged as reliable tools for strategy formulation and implementation in an organization. In this paper, ABC and BSC models are separately proposed and applied in the merry-go-round (MGR department of an Indian thermal power plant. The results elicited from adoption of these two models in the said power plant provide more accurate, timely, and reliable operational and financial information at different activity levels of the organization, which would help in effective strategic and tactical decision making. Even though, there are limited published research papers related to application of ABC model in power plants, none of them has adopted ABC and BSC techniques in an Indian contextual environment. Additionally, an integrated ABC-BSC model is designed to harness the complementary synergies of both ABC and BSC models.

  17. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

    2015-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

  18. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  19. A model of strategic product quality and process improvement incentives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldman, Jasper; Gaalman, G.

    2013-01-01

    In many production firms it is common practice to financially reward managers for firm performance improvement. The use of financial incentives for improvement has been widely researched in several analytical and empirical studies. Literature has also addressed the strategic effect of incentives, in

  20. Strategic aspects of innovation management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baruk Jerzy

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Innovations are regarded as the main factor for the development of organizations, regions and whole economies. In practice the innovativeness of economic entities is limited by many factors of internal and external origin. Among the internal factors there are factors associated with management itself focusing the attention of managers on the current problems, limited utilization of modern methods of management, especially strategic management and innovation management. In this publication the emphasis was put on the discussion of the essence of strategic approach to innovation management; the essence of strategic innovations and their role in the development of organizations; three model solutions were proposed, they facilitate: rationalization of decision-making processes for the selection of the strategy of innovative activity; making rational decisions with regard to the moments for the implementation of strategic and facilitating innovations; making rational decisions based on the cycle of strategic innovation in the horizontal and vertical system. Thus, the goal of this publication is to propose a strategic approach to innovation management based not on an intuitive approach, but on a rational approach using chosen model solutions.

  1. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

  2. fMRI Evidence for Strategic Decision-Making during Resolution of Pronoun Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Corey T.; Clark, Robin; Gunawardena, Delani; Ryant, Neville; Grossman, Murray

    2012-01-01

    Pronouns are extraordinarily common in daily language yet little is known about the neural mechanisms that support decisions about pronoun reference. We propose a large-scale neural network for resolving pronoun reference that consists of two components. First, a core language network in peri-Sylvian cortex supports syntactic and semantic…

  3. Understanding farmers' strategic decision-making processes and the implications for biodiversity conservation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmar-Bowers, Quentin; Lane, Ruth

    2009-02-01

    The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called 'boxes of influence' that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms.

  4. Making Strategic Decisions: Conducting and Using Research on the Impact of Sequenced Library Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundstrom, Kacy; Martin, Pamela; Cochran, Dory

    2016-01-01

    This study explores the relationship between course grades and sequenced library instruction interventions throughout psychology students' curriculum. Researchers conducted this study to inform decisions about sustaining and improving program integrations for first- and second-year composition courses and to improve discipline-level integrations.…

  5. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex affects strategic decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van't Wout, M; Kahn, RS; Sanfey, AG; Aleman, A

    2005-01-01

    Although decision-making is typically seen as a rational process, emotions play a role in tasks that include unfairness. Recently, activation in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during offers experienced as unfair in the Ultimatum Game was suggested to subserve goal maintenance in this task.

  6. Strategic Technological Sourcing Decisions in the Context of Timing and Market Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brem, Alexander; Gerhard, D.; Voigt, K.-I.

    2014-01-01

    with recent research, however, other results are surprising, e.g. just a small minority of companies involve people from controlling and legal departments in these decision processes. The paper also reveals differences between companies with different timing and competitive strategies, which are in line...

  7. Value creation and value claiming in strategic outsourcing decisions : A Resource-Contingency Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verwaal, E.; Commandeur, H.R.; Verbeke, W.J.M.I.

    2009-01-01

    This study integrates the concepts of value creation and value claiming into a theoretical framework that emphasizes the dependence of resource value maximization on value-claiming motivations in outsourcing decisions. To test this theoretical framework, it develops refutable implications to explain

  8. Classification and Prioritization of Strategic Plans in Balanced Score Card (BSC Model by Fuzzy Quality Function Deployment and Zero-One Goal Programming (ZOGP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mehdi pourmostafa

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Due to continuous changes in organizational environment, there is no warranty for long term survival in the market. Currently, those organizations can succeed that are agile and able to rapidly respond to environmental requirements. In this research a model has been proposed for applying proper strategies for achieving long term organizational success. The proposed model is an integration of Balanced Score Card (BSC approach, Fuzzy Quality Function Development (FQFD and Zero-One Goal Programming (ZOGP. In fact by BSC, appropriate strategic plans can be designed and prioritized by FQFD. Then, based on multiple objectives and existing problem constraints, feasible strategic plans are identified by ZOGP. Findings imply that decision making techniques can be well utilized in designing BSC through a structured methodology make improvement in all aspects and have a positive influence on organization's performance in long term .   Keywords : B alanced Score Card , Fuzzy Quality Function Development, Zero-One Goal Programming, Strategic plans

  9. A heuristic forecasting model for stock decision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, D.; Jiang, Q.; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a heuristic forecasting model based on neural networks for stock decision-making. Some heuristic strategies are presented for enhancing the learning capability of neural networks and obtaining better trading performance. The China Shanghai Composite Index is used as case study. The forecasting model can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the result of neural network prediction. Results are compared with a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. ...

  10. Strategic optimization model and area planning for oil spill response; Modelo de otimizacao estrategico e de planejamento de area para resposta a derramamentos de oleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Luiz Rodolfo Tinoco Aboim; Ferreira Filho, Virgilio Jose Martins [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Programa de Engenharia de Producao

    2004-07-01

    This paper deals with strategic aspect of the oil spill response problem, that is, with the problem of deciding where to locate adequate capability to respond to potential oil spills. In addition to locational considerations, the strategic oil spill response problem generally calls for decisions concerning the proper levels and types of equipment to be stockpiled, as well as for policies regarding the allocation of such capability among points of high oil spill potential. The oil spill optimization models can contribute with contingency plans that are prepared by responsible parties . It is described one model that address current legal requirements, in particular, the time-phasing of response, and the use of this model as a decision support by responsible parties. (author)

  11. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  12. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents

    OpenAIRE

    Craig, Alexis B.; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L.

    2017-01-01

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects...

  13. The manual of strategic economic decision making using Bayesian belief networks to solve complex problems

    CERN Document Server

    Grover, Jeff

    2016-01-01

    This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, & 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for naïve learners and professionals, with a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem - as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as ...

  14. Strategic insight and age-related goal-neglect influence risky decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westbrook, Andrew; Martins, Bruna S; Yarkoni, Tal; Braver, Todd S

    2012-01-01

    Maximizing long-run gains often requires taking on some degree of risk, yet decision-makers often exhibit risk aversion (RA), rejecting risky prospects even when these have higher expected value (EV) than safer alternatives. We investigated whether explicit strategy instruction and practice can decrease prepotent RA, and whether aging impacts the efficacy of such an intervention. Participants performed a paired lottery task with options varying in risk and magnitude, both before and after practice with a similar task that encouraged maximization of EV and instruction to use this strategy in risky decisions. In both younger and older adults (OAs), strategy training reduced RA. Although RA was age-equivalent at baseline, larger training effects were observed in younger adults (YAs). These effects were not explained by risk-related (i.e., affective) interference effects or computation ability, but were consistent with a progressive, age-related neglect of the strategy across trials. Our findings suggest that strategy training can diminish RA, but that training efficacy is reduced among OAs, potentially due to goal neglect. We discuss implications for neural mechanisms that may distinguish older and YAs' risky decision-making.

  15. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

    2013-06-01

    Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    , but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models...... of formerly disconnected tools could improve tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  17. Strategic forward contracting in electricity markets: modelling and analysis by equilibrium method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wong, K.P.; Yu, C.W.; Chung, C.Y.

    2004-01-01

    Contractual arrangement plays an important role in mitigating market power in electricity markets. The issue of whether rational generators would voluntarily enter contract markets through a strategic incentive is examined, and the factors which could affect this strategic contracting behaviour. A two-stage game model is presented to formulate the competition of generators in bid-based pool spot markets and contract markets, as well as the interaction between these two markets. The affine supply function equilibrium (SFE) method is used to model competitive bidding for the spot market, while the contract market is modelled with the general conjectural variation method. The proposed methodology allows asymmetric, multiple strategic generators having capacity constraints and affine marginal costs with non-zero intercepts to be taken into account. It is shown that the presence of forward contract markets will complicate the solution to the affine SFE, and a new methodology is developed in this regard. Strategic contracting behaviours are analysed in the context of asymmetric, multiple strategic generators. A numerical example is used to verify theoretical results. It is shown that the observability of contract markets plays an important role in fostering generators' strategic contracting incentive, and that this contracting behaviour could also be affected by generators' cost parameters and demand elasticity. (author)

  18. Knowledge Management Portal: A Simplified Model to Help Decision Makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, I.; Hernandes Tabares, R.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present a simplified model that could help the nuclear industry to keep the expertise of safeguards professionals in touch with the state of the art, and also to have available information in the Portal of Knowledge Management. It can also provide indicators and general data for decision makers. Authors have developed the concept based on their own experience through systems running in hydroelectric and gas fired plants, and one exclusive system that manage all courses in one University. It is under development a Portal of Knowledge Management for NPP dealing with information obtained of Strategic Plans, Budgets and Economics, Operation Performance, Maintenance and Surveillance Plans, Training and Education Programs, QA Programs, Operational Experience, Safety Culture, and Engineering of Human Factors. This model will provide indicators for decision makers. Training and education module is prepared according to profile of each individual and his attributes, tasks and capabilities, and training and education programmes. The system could apply self-assessment questionnaires; immersive learning using media (video) classes, and test applications using questions randomly selected from data bank, as well as could make applications to certificate people. All these data are analyzed and generate indicators about strongest and weakness points. Managers could have indication of individual's deficiency even though in training programmes on a real time basis. Another tool that could be applied to the model is the remote operation of supervision equipment. The model is developed using web-based tools, like ASP.NET encrypted by 128 bits, and web site https. Finally, it is important to stress that the model can be customized according to industry preference. (author)

  19. A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiaobing; Fan Ying; Wei Yiming

    2009-01-01

    China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently being prepared. But how large the optimal stockpile size for China should be, what the best acquisition strategies are, how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs, and other related issues still need to be studied in detail. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing SPRs to evaluate the optimal SPR policy for China. Using this model, empirical results are presented for the optimal size of China's SPR and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases. The results show that with comprehensive consideration, the optimal SPR size for China is around 320 million barrels. This size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017, three years earlier than the national goal, which implies that the need for China to fill the SPR is probably more pressing; the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities. The information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers.

  20. IMPORTANCE OF MAKING STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION AND CONNECTION WITH THE ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY GENERALLY SPEAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SLOBODAN POPOVIĆ

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The accession of a number of transition countries of the EU, such as the Republic of Serbia, essentially means the adoption of strategic decisions at the state level in the context of wider EU decision. The authors based their observations on the EU 2020 strategy, which is essentially defined as: smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The EU has adopted the basic principles of 2010, with the main objective to economic growth throughout the EU based on knowledge, but with respect for the principles of environmental protection, increasing employment, and increase in other basic principles of economics of the company to the state. You could say that the entire system such observations cohesion productivity growth economies of EU member states and social cohesion and socially responsible behavior. This approach was incurred because there is a need of constant adjustment economies member changes at the global level. Notwithstanding the universal adaptation of all EU member states, however, one part remained reserved for a special adjustment of each member country (it depends on the specific characteristics of each country to adapt in accordance with national goals adopted by any government of a Member State specifically for your country, through national development plans, plans of adjustment and reform plans. The consequences of the Great Depression are highly visible and in early 2016, particularly in terms of rising unemployment, rising unemployment especially of young people in all old EU member states. The responsibility for this state of affairs is not only the governments of member states, but responsibility must be sought from the representatives of big business, trade unions, associations, non-governmental organizations and all other stakeholders who have imposed in the decision-making processes, and in a crisis to minimize its impact, because it does not response. At the end of the aforementioned macro effects should be seen in the

  1. Strategic planning model for Startups: A case study of Iranian packaging industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Mahdavi Mazdeh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In today’s turbulent and competitive world, strategic planning plays an important role for the success of firms. Despite the fact that there are literally numerous models proposed for different companies in various states and structures, the possibility of using strategic planning for startups has never been seriously considered. In this paper, we present a survey by asking experts to find out whether strategic planning is suitable for startups. We also propose a model for strategic planning in startups based on the strategic planning models for small businesses and entrepreneurship concepts. The model is similar to other models and what differentiates this models form other approaches is the methodology used for internal and external analysis and the parameters taken into consideration. The proposed model is examined on an Iranian food packaging industry for validation. The preliminary results indicate that the success of startups depends on two sets of parameters: “entrepreneurial opportunities” and “competitive advantages and entrepreneurial characteristics”.

  2. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  3. Decision support model for selecting and evaluating suppliers in the construction industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Schramm

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A structured evaluation of the construction industry's suppliers, considering aspects which make their quality and credibility evident, can be a strategic tool to manage this specific supply chain. This study proposes a multi-criteria decision model for suppliers' selection from the construction industry, as well as an efficient evaluation procedure for the selected suppliers. The model is based on SMARTER (Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique Exploiting Ranking method and its main contribution is a new approach to structure the process of suppliers' selection, establishing explicit strategic policies on which the company management system relied to make the suppliers selection. This model was applied to a Civil Construction Company in Brazil and the main results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model. This study allowed the development of an approach to Construction Industry which was able to provide a better relationship among its managers, suppliers and partners.

  4. STRATEGIC MODEL FOR ATTENUATING RURAL INEQUITIES IN SOUTH-MUNTENIA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTINA BÂLDAN

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In carrying out the paper: “Strategic model for attenuating rural inequities in South-Muntenia Region”, I had like primary goals the accomplishment of two kinds of objectives: general objectives and specific objectives. For the general objectives, I followed: developing the approach theoretical mode for combating rural inequities; the development of strategic plans for approaching the rural inequities combat and identifying strategic socio-economic measures dedicated for promoting necessary measures for combating social inequities. And the specific objectives had like goals the SWOT analysis and the development of strategic plans in local profile, based on clusters. The analysis of rural area in South-Muntenia Region has been made at the level of local administrative-territorial units, the smallest territorial level from which is collecting and after the statistic information is published. Utilizing this kind of territorial level is a positive premise for obtaining results with a high accurate degree.

  5. [Strategic decisions in public psychiatric institutions: a proposed method for resource analysis and allocation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micheletti, Pierre; Chierici, Piero; Durang, Xavier; Salvador, Nathalie; Lopez, Nathalie

    2011-01-01

    Because of its sector-based organization and extra-hospital care, public psychiatry has a unique position in healthcare. This paper describes the tools and procedures used to analyze and allocate the resources of the "Centre Hospitalier Alpes-Isère", a hospital serving a catchment population of 530,000 adults. A consensus-based approach was used to validate the selected indicators and included the participation of a geographer. Five levels of resource allocation were identified and classified using a decision tree. At each level, the relevant authorities and criteria were identified as key components of the decision-making process. This paper describes the first three levels of care provision. Focusing on adult care, a comparative assessment of the resources allocated to general psychiatric care and specialist care was conducted, in addition to a comparative assessment of the resources allocated to each of the hospital's four local centers. Geographical accessibility to extramural facilities was also assessed. A study of the characteristics of each general psychiatry clinic revealed significant disparities. The paper highlights several issues: the poor knowledge of psychiatric epidemiological data relating to the population within the catchment area, the difficulty of assessing non-consolidated data or indicators from multiple sources, and the limited and partial nature of geographical data for characterizing and evaluating health care in the hospital's peripheral clinics. Several studies are currently underway to assess the operational effectiveness of the tools and procedures used to analyze and allocate resources.

  6. Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

    CERN Document Server

    Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

  7. Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Yan; Kang, Junjie; Zhang, Xingping; Hu, Zheng

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011–2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies. Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs' (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15–0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government. - Highlights: • Improve IRSP model by adding nonlinear external and popularization cost. • The model is used to conduct China's power sector planning in 2011–2021. • Simulate the impacts of alternative energy policies on planning results. • The model can be used for joint power sector planning and policy design

  8. The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how oil price volatility affects the strategic investment decisions of a large panel of US firms. This paper uses key insights from the real options literature to develop a model of a company's strategic investment and shows how changes in oil price volatility can impact strategic investment decisions. The model is estimated using recently developed generalized method of moment estimation techniques for panel data sets. Empirical results are presented to show that there is a U shaped relationship between oil price volatility and firm investment. This is consistent with the predictions from the strategic growth options literature. The results should be useful to decision makers, investors, managers, policy makers and others who need to make strategic investment decisions in an uncertain world. (author)

  9. Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chin, L.; Vollmann, T.E.

    1992-01-01

    A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply

  10. Decision support models for natural gas dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chin, L. (Bentley College, Waltham, MA (United States)); Vollmann, T.E. (International Inst. for Management Development, Lausanne (Switzerland))

    A decision support model is presented which will give utilities the support tools to manage the purchasing of natural gas supplies in the most cost effective manner without reducing winter safety stocks to below minimum levels. In Business As Usual (BAU) purchasing quantities vary with the daily forecasts. With Material Requirements Planning (MRP) and Linear Programming (LP), two types of factors are used: seasonal weather and decision rule. Under current practices, BAU simulation uses the least expensive gas source first, then adding successively more expensive sources. Material Requirements Planning is a production planning technique which uses a parent item master production schedule to determine time phased requirements for component points. Where the MPS is the aggregate gas demand forecasts for the contract year. This satisfies daily demand with least expensive gas and uses more expensive when necessary with automatic computation of available-to-promise (ATP) gas a dispacher knows daily when extra gas supplies may be ATP. Linear Programming is a mathematical algorithm used to determine optimal allocations of scarce resources to achieve a desired result. The LP model determines optimal daily gas purchase decisions with respect to supply cost minimization. Using these models, it appears possible to raise gross income margins 6 to 10% with minimal additions of customers and no new gas supply.

  11. Decision modelling tools for utilities in the deregulated energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makkonen, S. [Process Vision Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    2005-07-01

    This thesis examines the impact of the deregulation of the energy market on decision making and optimisation in utilities and demonstrates how decision support applications can solve specific encountered tasks in this context. The themes of the thesis are presented in different frameworks in order to clarify the complex decision making and optimisation environment where new sources of uncertainties arise due to the convergence of energy markets, globalisation of energy business and increasing competition. This thesis reflects the changes in the decision making and planning environment of European energy companies during the period from 1995 to 2004. It also follows the development of computational performance and evolution of energy information systems during the same period. Specifically, this thesis consists of studies at several levels of the decision making hierarchy ranging from top-level strategic decision problems to specific optimisation algorithms. On the other hand, the studies also follow the progress of the liberalised energy market from the monopolistic era to the fully competitive market with new trading instruments and issues like emissions trading. This thesis suggests that there is an increasing need for optimisation and multiple criteria decision making methods, and that new approaches based on the use of operations research are welcome as the deregulation proceeds and uncertainties increase. Technically, the optimisation applications presented are based on Lagrangian relaxation techniques and the dedicated Power Simplex algorithm supplemented with stochastic scenario analysis for decision support, a heuristic method to allocate common benefits and potential losses of coalitions of power companies, and an advanced Branch- and-Bound algorithm to solve efficiently nonconvex optimisation problems. The optimisation problems are part of the operational and tactical decision making process that has become very complex in the recent years. Similarly

  12. Model for managing water in oil refineries based in Strategic Choice Approach; Modelo para gerenciamento de aguas em refinarias de petroleo atraves do 'Strategic Choice Approach'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobral, Marcos Felipe Falcao; Morais, Danielle Costa [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Like all natural resources, the water has more space on the staff of debates in the business because of the scenarios current and future trends that point to the high costs related to its capitation, use and disposal. As an essential input in various industrial activities, in special way in the process of refining oil, the correct management of water resources becomes a challenge ahead is to be observed in the actions of these strategic industries. So there is needs to structure the problem before solve it, considering the various uncertainties related to decision environmental, it is evident the need a method to assist policy makers in the generation of alternatives for water management in these enterprises. Thus, this work aims to propose a model for managing water in oil refineries, using the Strategic Choice Approach. (author)

  13. Adapted strategic plannig model applied to small business: a case study in the fitness area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduarda Tirelli Hennig

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic planning is an important management tool in the corporate scenario and shall not be restricted to big Companies. However, this kind of planning process in small business may need special adaptations due to their own characteristics. This paper aims to identify and adapt the existent models of strategic planning to the scenario of a small business in the fitness area. Initially, it is accomplished a comparative study among models of different authors to identify theirs phases and activities. Then, it is defined which of these phases and activities should be present in a model that will be utilized in a small business. That model was applied to a Pilates studio; it involves the establishment of an organizational identity, an environmental analysis as well as the definition of strategic goals, strategies and actions to reach them. Finally, benefits to the organization could be identified, as well as hurdles in the implementation of the tool.

  14. Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsby, M.; Lusk, G.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which climate models can underwrite specific climate policies has long been a contentious issue. Skeptics frequently deny that climate models are trustworthy in an attempt to undermine climate action, whereas policy makers often desire information that exceeds the capabilities of extant models. While not skeptics, a group of mathematicians and philosophers [Frigg et al. (2014)] recently argued that even tiny differences between the structure of a complex dynamical model and its target system can lead to dramatic predictive errors, possibly resulting in disastrous consequences when policy decisions are based upon those predictions. They call this result the Hawkmoth effect (HME), and seemingly use it to rebuke rightwing proposals to forgo mitigation in favor of adaptation. However, a vigorous debate has emerged between Frigg et al. on one side and another philosopher-mathematician pair [Winsberg and Goodwin (2016)] on the other. On one hand, Frigg et al. argue that their result shifts the burden to climate scientists to demonstrate that their models do not fall prey to the HME. On the other hand, Winsberg and Goodwin suggest that arguments like those asserted by Frigg et al. can be, if taken seriously, "dangerous": they fail to consider the variety of purposes for which models can be used, and thus too hastily undermine large swaths of climate science. They put the burden back on Frigg et al. to show their result has any effect on climate science. This paper seeks to attenuate this debate by establishing an irenic middle position; we find that there is more agreement between sides than it first seems. We distinguish a `decision standard' from a `burden of proof', which helps clarify the contributions to the debate from both sides. In making this distinction, we argue that scientists bear the burden of assessing the consequences of HME, but that the standard Frigg et al. adopt for decision relevancy is too strict.

  15. The Use of Game Theory for Making Rational Decisions in Business Negations: A Conceptual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kestutis Peleckis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The objective of this paper is a comparative analysis of the world literature on game theory and its applicability for rational decision-making in negotiations and creation of a model supporting strategic decisions in negotiations. Research Design & Methods: Systematic, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis of the scientific literature. In order to create an algorithm of negotiations statements on theory of graphs, game theory and theory of heuristic algorithm were applied. Findings: The article proposes an algorithm which combines the game theory approach with heuristic algorithms in order to reflect the specifics of negotiations better. Such an algorithm can be used to support strategic decisions in negotiations and is useful for better understanding of the strategic management of negotiating processes. Implications & Recommendations: The proposed mathematical algorithm for the strategy formulation of international business negotiations can be used in electronic business negotiations, both as a standalone tool, or as partially requiring support by the negotiator. Contribution & Value Added: The game theory methods support rational solutions in business negotiations, as they enable to analyse the interacting forces. This is particularly relevant in international business negotiations, where participants from different cultures can be faced with numerous uncertainties.

  16. Learning Markov Decision Processes for Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mao, Hua; Chen, Yingke; Jaeger, Manfred

    2012-01-01

    . The proposed learning algorithm is adapted from algorithms for learning deterministic probabilistic finite automata, and extended to include both probabilistic and nondeterministic transitions. The algorithm is empirically analyzed and evaluated by learning system models of slot machines. The evaluation......Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed system behaviors. In this paper we extend the algorithm...... on learning probabilistic automata to reactive systems, where the observed system behavior is in the form of alternating sequences of inputs and outputs. We propose an algorithm for automatically learning a deterministic labeled Markov decision process model from the observed behavior of a reactive system...

  17. METHODS OF DETERMINATION THE INTERIOR POTENTIAL OF ENTERPRISE IN MAKING STRATEGICAL ASSORTMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Malyuk

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the internal environment of the enterprise is aimed at assessing the strategic potential of the enterprise as a whole and its individual functional subsystems. The efficient activity of enterprise cannot be realized without a systematic definition and using the existing capabilities since, as a rule, the potential of the organization is higher than its actual implementation. It is not possible to put forward long-term goals, to form the most optimal strategy to achieve them without the characteristics of accumulated enterprises potential. From this point, the purpose of the paper is to study and establish the criteria that characterize the inner potential of the company during the implementation of assortment strategies. The method of evaluating of these indicators, as well as the selection of the assortment strategy according to the results has been suggested. Methods. The research of the internal potential of PJSC “Mykolaiv bakery № 1” is based on the expert questionnaire, which made it possible not only to identify a number of criteria for internal enterprises environment, which made it possible not only to identify a number of criteria for internal environment, as well as by experts to determine the parameter and boundary values of coefficients influencing the choice of the assortment strategy. The results of questionnaire showed that the main criteria of the characteristics of the internal potential of the company are: primary phases of the life cycle of the goods (were determined on the basis of the matrix "Market growth – Market Share"; prospects of producing the assortment groups of goods (calculated using the integral coefficient of goods assortment; changes in sales amount (described by trigonometric dependencies; degree of the goods assortment realization (evaluated using the coefficient of realization; assortments balance according to the Pareto rule (based on the Pareto rule, as well as expert survey; the

  18. Participation in Risk Management Decisions: Theoretical, Practical, and Strategic Difficulties in the Evaluation of Public Participation Initiatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, Gene; Frewer, Lynn

    2003-01-01

    A current trend in risk management, and policy setting more generally, is the involvement of members of the public, or other significant stakeholders, in the decision-making process. Such involvement has been argued to have the advantage of increasing the democratic legitimacy of decisions, and allowing the incorporation of lay insight into problems that have a degree of scientific uncertainty (and hence that are based to some extent on value judgments). One significant issue is the quality or validity of such processes, namely, the issue of evaluation. Evaluation is important, not only from a quality control perspective, but because it may indicate potential improvements for the conduct of further exercises, and importantly, may help to assure participants (and the public more widely) that the exercise is more than just a public relations exercise. However, evaluation of public involvement initiatives is relatively rare, and little discussed in the academic literature. It is also beset with a large number of potential problems and uncertainties. In this paper, we will discuss a variety of problems with conducting evaluations of participation initiatives. These problems range from the theoretical (how one defines effectiveness, how one measures this, how one confirms the validity, reliability and utility of one's measures), to the practical (how one conducts evaluations given limitations in time, space, resources, and possible sources of data), to the strategic/political (how one deals with sponsor/organiser resistance to evaluation). These problems will be discussed from a theoretical point of view, and with reference to practical evaluations that we have conducted with a large variety of governmental and non-governmental organisations, predominantly in the UK. The paper will conclude with a number of recommendations regarding best practice in conducting evaluations

  19. [Mathematical models of decision making and learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2008-07-01

    Computational models of reinforcement learning have recently been applied to analysis of brain imaging and neural recording data to identity neural correlates of specific processes of decision making, such as valuation of action candidates and parameters of value learning. However, for such model-based analysis paradigms, selecting an appropriate model is crucial. In this study we analyze the process of choice learning in rats using stochastic rewards. We show that "Q-learning," which is a standard reinforcement learning algorithm, does not adequately reflect the features of choice behaviors. Thus, we propose a generalized reinforcement learning (GRL) algorithm that incorporates the negative reward effect of reward loss and forgetting of values of actions not chosen. Using the Bayesian estimation method for time-varying parameters, we demonstrated that the GRL algorithm can predict an animal's choice behaviors as efficiently as the best Markov model. The results suggest the usefulness of the GRL for the model-based analysis of neural processes involved in decision making.

  20. Tourism Based on the Model of Strategic Place Triangle (A Case Study in Wisata Bahari Lamongan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismuhadi Heru Wijayanto

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is a very promising prospects to support the economic development of a region. We assess Wisata Bahari Lamongan (WBL as a tourism object. WBL was having significant decreased visitors in the last six years, thus a strategic plan is need to re-increase the number of visitors. Thisstudy used Strategic Triangle Place (SPT model as an analysis tool to assess the strategic planning in WBL. SPT is an approach that includes three key components, namely: Positioning, Differentiation and Brand (PDB. This research used Soft System Methodology (SSM which relevant to analyzethe strategic plan model which is expected to be recommendations from tourists on problems in WBL.The result of this showed that the strategic planning of WBL did not completely accordance with the SPT model. Positioning and differentiation elements were still weak, and the brand was not well developed. Therefore, we recommend WBL to set targeted segmentation of all social backgrounds and ages, especially children. WBL shouldmade ​​the sea as main differentiated factor, thus it has marine tourism potential. WBL should build an image by providing best service quality, security, comfortness, cleanliness, and best quality rides. Keywords: Strategic Planning, Strategic Place Triangle, Positioning, Differentiation, Brand

  1. Modelling and Decision Support of Clinical Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Roland; Lux, Thomas

    The German health care market is under a rapid rate of change, forcing especially hospitals to provide high-quality services at low costs. Appropriate measures for more effective and efficient service provision are process orientation and decision support by information technology of clinical pathway of a patient. The essential requirements are adequate modelling of clinical pathways as well as usage of adequate systems, which are capable of assisting the complete path of a patient within a hospital, and preferably also outside of it, in a digital way. To fulfil these specifications the authors present a suitable concept, which meets the challenges of well-structured clinical pathways as well as rather poorly structured diagnostic and therapeutic decisions, by interplay of process-oriented and knowledge-based hospital information systems.

  2. Integrating Strategic and Operational Decision Making Using Data-Driven Dashboards: The Case of St. Joseph Mercy Oakland Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Weiner; Balijepally, Venugopal; Tanniru, Mohan

    2015-01-01

    Hospitals have invested and continue to invest heavily in building information systems to support operations at various levels of administration. These systems generate a lot of data but fail to effectively convert these data into actionable information for decision makers. Such ineffectiveness often is attributed to a lack of alignment between strategic planning and information technology (IT) initiatives supporting operational goals. We present a case study that illustrates how the use of digital dashboards at St. Joseph Mercy Oakland (SJMO) Hospital in Pontiac, Michigan, was instrumental in supporting such an alignment. Driven by a focus on key performance indicators (KPIs), dashboard applications also led to other tangible and intangible benefits. An ability to track KPIs over time and against established targets, with drill-down capabilities, allowed leadership to hold staff members accountable for achieving their performance targets. By displaying the dashboards in prominent locations (such as operational unit floors, the physicians' cafeteria, and nursing stations), SJMO ushered in transparency in the planning and monitoring processes. The need to develop KPI metrics and drive data collection efforts became ingrained in the work ethos of people at every level of the organization. Although IT-enabled dashboards have been instrumental in supporting this cultural transformation, the focus of investment was the ability of technology to make collective vision and action the responsibility of all stakeholders.

  3. Creating a nursing strategic planning framework based on evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Lorie K; Fischer, Brenda

    2011-03-01

    This article describes an evidence-informed strategic planning process and framework used by a Magnet-recognized public health system in California. This article includes (1) an overview of the organization and its strategic planning process, (2) the structure created within nursing for collaborative strategic planning and decision making, (3) the strategic planning framework developed based on the organization's balanced scorecard domains and the new Magnet model, and (4) the process undertaken to develop the nursing strategic priorities. Outcomes associated with the structure, process, and key initiatives are discussed throughout the article. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Alexis B; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

    2017-07-17

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects of ToM or fixed strategy agents with static behaviors or heuristics. Individuals with higher Autism Quotient (AQ) scores cooperated less than subjects with low AQ scores with the ToM agents. In contrast, subjects with higher AQ scores cooperated more with fixed strategy agents. Additionally, subjects with higher AQ scores spent more time than low AQ subjects signaling cooperative intent in games with fixed strategy agents while spending less time signaling cooperation with adaptive agents, indicating a preference toward systemizing behaviors in the face of uncertainty. We conclude that individuals with high levels of autistic traits are less likely to utilize ToM as a cognitive strategy, even when it is beneficial, to achieve a desired outcome.

  5. Model of Formation of the Enterprise Business Portfolio in the Context of Ensuring Strategic Flexibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shatilova Olena V.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers urgent problems of enterprise management under conditions of external environment instability, studies problems of the enterprise strategic flexibility management. It shows that one of the efficient mechanisms of ensuring strategic flexibility is restructuring of the enterprise business portfolio in accordance with the change of the situation in the target market of enterprise functioning. The goal of the article is development of a model of formation of enterprise business portfolio in the context of ensuring strategic flexibility. The main method of optimisation of the enterprise business portfolio in the context of ensuring strategic flexibility is the use of modification of the Markowitz model of investment portfolio formation. The offered model of the enterprise business portfolio formation allows taking into account changes of external and internal environments and conducting portfolio restructuring in the event of the change of the enterprise target market situation. Prospects of further studies in this direction are detailed elaboration and formalisation of the organisational and economic mechanism of realisation of strategic flexibility at an enterprise.

  6. A model for firm-specific strategic wisdom : including illustrations and 49 guiding questions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Straten, Roeland Peter

    2017-01-01

    This PhD thesis provides an answer to the question ‘How may one think strategically’. It does so by presenting a new prescriptive ‘Model for Firm-Specific Strategic Wisdom’. This Model aims to guide any individual strategist in his or her thinking from a state of firm-specific ‘ignorance’ to a state

  7. Promoting Strategic STEM Education Outreach Programming Using a Systems-Based STEM-EO Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Annmarie R.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a STEM Education Outreach (STEM-EO) Model for promoting strategic university outreach programming at Penn State University to the benefit of university, school district and community stakeholders is described. The model considers STEM-EO as a complex system involving overarching learning goals addressed within four outreach domains…

  8. Managerial competences as a strategic element in the decision-making of Real Estate Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Fecchio

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A real estate plan works when is a part of a wider project which regards the society needs in a certain place. To know where to invest and the risk/performance profile, it is necessary to know the profit and loss profile of the building in the future, in addition to building costs. A correct real estate valuation does not exist if upstream a deep knowledge of real estate, financial, statistical, investors’ psychology (science or knowledge cycles, as well as an experience of years do not exist, which allows to acquire sensibility even towards unpredictable events. The dynamic real estate management is the necessary tool to increase the recurring revenue, the capital gain, to improve cash, decrease risks. The real estate manager, consisting in a team with integrated skills, with “on field” experience, with business logical knowledge, with roots on territory, able to share the business risk, with knowledge of public administrations’ procedures and complexity, is able to support the real estate investor in the development procedure. The evolution of the decision process must follow the trend that since 2009 has seen the overcoming of redevelopment projects compared to new building projects, with higher costs and complexity, but more sustainable from the environmental and space rationalization point of view. Redevelopment processes will be framed in complex territorial development projects, with guarantees of transparency of administrative processes and times, in order to attract international funds, that today are prevented to operate due to great uncertainty of the administrative process management in Italy.

  9. A resource of potential drug targets and strategic decision-making for obstructive sleep apnoea pharmacotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner, Richard L; Grace, Kevin P; Wellman, Andrew

    2017-07-01

    There is currently no pharmacotherapy for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) but there is no principled a priori reason why there should not be one. This review identifies a rational decision-making strategy with the necessary logical underpinnings that any reasonable approach would be expected to navigate to develop a viable pharmacotherapy for OSA. The process first involves phenotyping an individual to quantify and characterize the critical predisposing factor(s) to their OSA pathogenesis and identify, a priori, if the patient is likely to benefit from a pharmacotherapy that targets those factors. We then identify rational strategies to manipulate those critical predisposing factor(s), and the barriers that have to be overcome for success of any OSA pharmacotherapy. A new analysis then identifies candidate drug targets to manipulate the upper airway motor circuitry for OSA pharmacotherapy. The first conclusion is that there are two general pharmacological approaches for OSA treatment that are of the most potential benefit and are practically realistic, one being fairly intuitive but the second perhaps less so. The second conclusion is that after identifying the critical physiological obstacles to OSA pharmacotherapy, there are current therapeutic targets of high interest for future development. The final analysis provides a tabulated resource of 'druggable' targets that are relatively restricted to the circuitry controlling the upper airway musculature, with these candidate targets being of high priority for screening and further study. We also emphasize that a pharmacotherapy may not cure OSA per se, but may still be a useful adjunct to improve the effectiveness of, and adherence to, other treatment mainstays. © 2017 The Authors. Respirology published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  10. A decision rule based on goal programming and one-stage models for uncertain multi-criteria mixed decision making and games against nature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with games against nature and multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty along with scenario planning. We focus on decision problems where a deterministic evaluation of criteria is not possible. The procedure we propose is based on weighted goal programming and may be applied when seeking a mixed strategy. A mixed strategy allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new method takes into consideration the decision maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem. It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies, i.e. for decision making under complete uncertainty or decision making under strategic uncertainty. The procedure refers to one-stage models, i.e. models considering combinations of scenarios and criteria (scenario-criterion pairs as distinct meta-attributes, which means that the novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets. The algorithm does not require any information about frequencies, which is especially desirable for new decision problems. It can be successfully applied by passive decision makers, as only criteria weights and the coefficient of optimism have to be declared.

  11. Privatization Influences and Strategic Enrollment Management Decisions in Public Research Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Bradley; Harris, Michael S.

    2010-01-01

    Given the current economics of public higher education, enrollment management plays an increasingly significant role in institutional strategy. This qualitative case study explores three leading public universities to understand the dynamics at work. Each institution's relationship with the state, desire for a private enrollment model, and growing…

  12. Human-centric decision-making models for social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Pedrycz, Witold

    2014-01-01

    The volume delivers a wealth of effective methods to deal with various types of uncertainty inherently existing in human-centric decision problems. It elaborates on  comprehensive decision frameworks to handle different decision scenarios, which help use effectively the explicit and tacit knowledge and intuition, model perceptions and preferences in a more human-oriented style. The book presents original approaches and delivers new results on fundamentals and applications related to human-centered decision making approaches to business, economics and social systems. Individual chapters cover multi-criteria (multiattribute) decision making, decision making with prospect theory, decision making with incomplete probabilistic information, granular models of decision making and decision making realized with the use of non-additive measures. New emerging decision theories being presented as along with a wide spectrum of ongoing research make the book valuable to all interested in the field of advanced decision-mak...

  13. Empirically evaluating decision-analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-08-01

    Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. We developed a structured reporting format for model evaluation and conducted a structured literature review to characterize current model evaluation recommendations and practices. As an illustration, we applied the reporting format to evaluate a microsimulation of human papillomavirus and cervical cancer. The model's outputs and uncertainty ranges were compared with multiple outcomes from a study of long-term progression from high-grade precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN]) to cancer. Outcomes included 5 to 30-year cumulative cancer risk among women with and without appropriate CIN treatment. Consistency was measured by model ranges overlapping study confidence intervals. The structured reporting format included: matching baseline characteristics and follow-up, reporting model and study uncertainty, and stating metrics of consistency for model and study results. Structured searches yielded 2963 articles with 67 meeting inclusion criteria and found variation in how current model evaluations are reported. Evaluation of the cervical cancer microsimulation, reported using the proposed format, showed a modeled cumulative risk of invasive cancer for inadequately treated women of 39.6% (30.9-49.7) at 30 years, compared with the study: 37.5% (28.4-48.3). For appropriately treated women, modeled risks were 1.0% (0.7-1.3) at 30 years, study: 1.5% (0.4-3.3). To support external and projective validity, cost-effectiveness models should be iteratively evaluated as new studies become available, with reporting standardized to facilitate assessment. Such evaluations are particularly relevant for models used to conduct comparative effectiveness analyses.

  14. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    by proposing potential subsequent design issues. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, these decisions are typically not connected to the models created during...... integration of formerly disconnected tools improves tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  15. The two-model problem in rational decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    A model of a decision problem frames that problem in three dimensions: sample space, target probability and information structure. Each specific model imposes a specific rational decision. As a result, different models may impose different, even contradictory, rational decisions, creating choice

  16. Implementation Of Strategic Management

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Creativity and innovation is the new game plan inherent in strategic .... The diagram below is a simplified operational model of strategic management, ..... Bryson (1995) outlines four benefits of strategic (planning) Management in his ... champions, good strategic planning teams, enough slack to handle potentially disruptive.

  17. Aggregated systems model for nuclear safeguards decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-03-01

    This report summarizes a general analytical tool designed to assist nuclear safeguards decision-makers. The approach is based on decision analysis--a quantitative procedure for evaluating complex decision alternatives with uncertain outcomes. The report describes the general analytical approach in the context of safeguards decisions at a hypothetical nuclear fuel reprocessing plant

  18. Estimating strategic interactions in petroleum exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    2009-01-01

    When individual petroleum-producing firms make their exploration decisions, information externalities and extraction externalities may lead them to interact strategically with their neighbors. If they do occur, strategic interactions in exploration would lead to a loss in both firm profit and government royalty revenue. Since these strategic interactions would be inefficient, changes in the government offshore leasing policy would need to be considered. The possibility of strategic interactions thus poses a concern to policy-makers and affects the optimal government policy. This paper examines whether these inefficient strategic interactions take place in U.S. federal lands in the Gulf of Mexico. In particular, it analyzes whether a firm's exploration decisions depend on the decisions of firms owning neighboring tracts of land. A discrete response model of a firm's exploration timing decision that uses variables based on the timing of a neighbor's lease term as instruments for the neighbor's decision is employed. The results suggest that strategic interactions do not actually take place, at least not in exploration, and therefore that the current parameters of the government offshore leasing policy do not lead to inefficient petroleum exploration. (author)

  19. Conjectural variation based learning model of strategic bidding in spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiqun Song; Yixin Ni; Fushuan Wen; Wu, F.F.

    2004-01-01

    In actual electricity market, which operates repeatedly on the basis of one hour or half hour, each firm might learn or estimate other competitors' strategic behaviors from available historical market operation data, and rationally aims at its maximum profit in the repeated biddings. A conjectural variation based learning method is proposed in this paper for generation firm to improve its strategic bidding performance. In the method, each firm learns and dynamically regulates its conjecture upon the reactions of its rivals to its bidding according to available information published in the electricity market, and then makes its optimal generation decision based on the updated conjectural variation of its rivals. Through such learning process, the equilibrium reached in the market is proven a Nash equilibrium. Motivation of generation firm to learn in the changing market environment and consequence of learning behavior in the market are also discussed through computer tests. (author)

  20. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) as a means to include environmental knowledge in decision making in the case of an aluminium reduction plant in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2011-01-01

    The purpose and means of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) can vary depending on the case investigated and interests of actors involved. Based on the objective for the SEA of a proposed aluminium reduction plant (ARP) in Greenland, this paper evaluates the SEA’s effectiveness in securing...... environmental knowledge in a decision-making process. It is concluded that the SEA secured inclusion of environmental knowledge in three out of four key decision arenas, which determined the direction and outcome of the process. The results from the SEA did not oppose the recommendations based on the economic...... assessments. As there was no conflict between economic and environmental recommendations, and hence no visible proof of SEA’s influence on the outcome of the decision, it is discussed whether environmental knowledge, in this decision making process, equals influence. The investigation was carried out...

  1. A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2016-01-01

    Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...

  2. The model for the strategic management of technology. The improvement cycle and matrixes deployment QFD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benavides Velasco, C. A.; Quintana Garcia, C.

    2007-01-01

    In spite of the importance of innovative firms, few contributions study in depth the strategic management of their technological resources. After describing the process of strategic management of technology, we propose a model that enables the application of that process and guarantees organizational flexibility in technological companies. For it, such a process has been adapted to She wart cycle (Deeming wheel) and combined with the quality function deployment (QFD). As a result, we propose the improvement cycle of technology. It contains two matrixes that allow identifying and prioritizing with greater clarity the activities related to the management of technological resources. (Authors)

  3. Fusion Power: A Strategic Choice for the Future Energy Provision. Why is So Much Time Wasted for Decision Making?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'haeseleer, William D.

    2005-01-01

    From a general analysis of the world energy issue, it is argued that an affordable, clean and reliable energy supply will have to consist of a portfolio of primary energy sources, a large fraction of which will be converted to a secondary carrier in large baseload plants. Because of all future uncertainties, it would be irresponsible not to include thermonuclear fusion as one of the future possibilities for electricity generation.The author tries to understand why nuclear-fusion research is not considered of strategic importance by the major world powers. The fusion programs of the USA and Europe are taken as prime examples to illustrate the 'hesitation'. Europe is now advocating a socalled 'fast-track' approach, thereby seemingly abandoning the 'classic' time frame towards fusion that it has projected for many years. The US 'oscillatory' attitude towards ITER in relation to its domestic program is a second case study that is looked at.From the real history of the ITER design and the 'siting' issue, one can try to understand how important fusion is considered by these world powers. Not words are important, but deeds. Fast tracks are nice to talk about, but timely decisions need to be taken and sufficient money is to be provided. More fundamental understanding of fusion plasma physics is important, but in the end, real hardware devices must be constructed to move along the path of power plant implementation.The author tries to make a balance of where fusion power research is at this moment, and where, according to his views, it should be going

  4. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  5. Transport Infrastructure Planning: Assessment of Strategic Mobility by Use of the POINTER Impact Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Jacob; Leleur, Steen

    2002-01-01

    of the societal importance of the examined project. The focus of this paper is to present the first results of a comparison of the use of a strategic impact measurement (the POINTER index) for road traffic on the Great Belt Link, the Øresund Link and the proposed Fehmarn Belt link. Specifically a number......When evaluating large infrastructure projects one point to be made is the importance of supplementing the more traditional effects captured by a cost-benefit analysis as presented for example by use of the benefit cost ratio (BCR) with strategic effect modelling to obtain a more comprehensive view...... of calculation scenarios have been made to assess the possibility of the POINTER approach to indicate the changes in strategic mobility (accessibility) associated with the implementing of one or more of the three fixed links. Finally, conclusions and a research perspective are outlined....

  6. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  7. Modeling Mathematical Ideas: Developing Strategic Competence in Elementary and Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Jennifer M.; Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan

    2016-01-01

    "Modeling Mathematical Ideas" combining current research and practical strategies to build teachers and students strategic competence in problem solving.This must-have book supports teachers in understanding learning progressions that addresses conceptual guiding posts as well as students' common misconceptions in investigating and…

  8. Strategic management of five deciduous forest invaders using Microstegium vimineum as a model species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cynthia D. Huebner

    2007-01-01

    This paper links key plant invasive traits with key landscape traits to define strategic management for five common forest invaders, using empirical data of Microstegium vimineum dispersal into forests as a preliminary model. Microstegium vimineum exhibits an Allee effect that may allow management to focus on treating its source...

  9. The Strategic Thinking and Learning Community: An Innovative Model for Providing Academic Assistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commander, Nannette Evans; Valeri-Gold, Maria; Darnell, Kim

    2004-01-01

    Today, academic assistance efforts are frequently geared to all students, not just the underprepared, with study skills offered in various formats. In this article, the authors describe a learning community model with the theme, "Strategic Thinking and Learning" (STL). Results of data analysis indicate that participants of the STL…

  10. Strategic Cognition in Transition? Individual Mental Model Renewal in the Energy Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gooyert, V. de; Rouwette, E.A.J.A.; Kranenburg, H.L. van; Freeman, R.E.; Breen, H.J. van

    2013-01-01

    A turbulent environment requires organizations to adjust their strategy to changing circumstances. Accordingly, the managers responsible for strategic change need to make timely adjustments to their mental models. This study contributes to the managerial cognition literature by showing a process of

  11. Product-market differentiation: a strategic planning model for community hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milch, R A

    1980-01-01

    Community hospitals would seem to have every reason to identify and capitalize on their product-market strengths. The strategic marketing/planning model provides a framework for rational analysis of the community hospital dilemma and for developing sensible solutions to the complex problems of accelerating hospital price-inflation.

  12. Strategic assessment of capacity consumption in railway networks: Framework and model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new framework for strategic planning purposes to calculate railway infrastructure occupation and capacity consumption in networks, independent of a timetable. Furthermore, a model implementing the framework is presented. In this model different train sequences...... are obtained efficiently with little input. The case illustrates the model's ability to quantify the capacity gain from infrastructure scenario to infrastructure scenario which can be used to increase the number of trains or improve the robustness of the system....

  13. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  14. Making decision process knowledge explicit using the product data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petrusel, R.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Dolean, Cristina; Mican, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a new knowledge acquisition and formalization method: the decision mining approach. Basically, we aim to produce a model of the workflow of mental actions performed by decision makers during the decision process. We show that through the use of a Product Data Model (PDM) we

  15. Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

  16. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  17. Information processing and strategic decision-making in small and medium-sized enterprises : The role of human and social capital in attaining decision effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, R.J.G.; Curseu, P.L.; Vermeulen, P.A.M.; Geurts, J.L.A.; Gibcus, P.

    2013-01-01

    The decision-making literature emphasizes that in high-stake decisions the characteristics of individual decision-makers, their interpretation of decision situations, and their social ties play an important role in decision outcomes. Despite these results, research on small- and medium-sized

  18. The significance of structural power in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne Merrild; Kørnøv, Lone; Cashmore, Matthew Asa

    2013-01-01

    , that actors influence both outcome and frames for strategic decision making and attention needs to be on not only the formal interactions between SEA process and strategic decision-making process but also on informal interaction and communication between actors. The informal structures shows crucial...... to the outcome of the decision-making process. The article is meant as a supplement to the understanding of power dynamics influence in IA processes emphasising the capacity of agents to mobilise and create change. Despite epistemological challenges of using ST theory as an approach to power analysis, this meta......This article presents a study of how power dynamics enables and constrains the influence of actors upon decision-making and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Based on Anthony Giddens structuration theory (ST), a model for studying power dynamics in strategic decision-making processes...

  19. Modeling and analysis of strategic forward contracting in transmission constrained power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.W.; Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wang, X.

    2010-01-01

    Taking the effects of transmission network into account, strategic forward contracting induced by the interaction of generation firms' strategies in the spot and forward markets is investigated. A two-stage game model is proposed to describe generation firms' strategic forward contracting and spot market competition. In the spot market, generation firms behave strategically by submitting bids at their nodes in a form of linear supply function (LSF) and there are arbitrageurs who buy and resell power at different nodes where price differences exceed the costs of transmission. The owner of the grid is assumed to ration limited transmission line capacity to maximize the value of the transmission services in the spot market. The Cournot-type competition is assumed for the strategic forward contract market. This two-stage model is formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC); in which each firm's optimization problem in the forward market is a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and parameter-dependent spot market equilibrium as the inner problem. A nonlinear complementarity method is employed to solve this EPEC model. (author)

  20. Decision making model for the recovery of useful material resources from wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rising, K.H.; Jensen, G.A.; FitzPatrick, V.F.

    1982-06-01

    In the United States, many of the material resources necessary for energy production are imported. Strategic stockpiling of these resources has been a well-known method for reducing the economic and productivity impact of supply interruption in case of emergency. Another viable option is the recovery of valuable materials and recycle of useful products from wastes generated in energy production and industrial processing. The technical feasibility for recovery and recycle, including decontamination of nuclear-related materials, has been proven and demonstrated. The economic feasibility would depend on both the resale and strategic values of the material, the saving from reusing rather than disposing of the material, the reclamation cost, and other factors that may influence the incentive for recovery and recycle. The purpose of the work presented in this paper is to develop a model to identify the economic and other incentives for the reclamation of useful material resources. Using available data to quantify factors such as strategic and resale values, reclamation cost and disposal cost saving, this model calculates the incentive value consisting of the above factors and selects the appropriate reclamation option. Because this model is empirical, there are limitations to its application. However, within the boundary where the model has been tested, it can be a useful tool for the decision maker to evaluate the economic feasibility of reclamation

  1. Modelling group decision simulation through argumentation

    OpenAIRE

    Marreiros, Goreti; Novais, Paulo; Machado, José; Ramos, Carlos; Neves, José

    2007-01-01

    Group decision making plays an important role in today’s organisations. The impact of decision making is so high and complex, that rarely the decision making process is made individually. In Group Decision Argumentation, there is a set of participants, with different profiles and expertise levels, that exchange ideas or engage in a process of argumentation and counter-argumentation, negotiate, cooperate, collaborate or even discuss techniques and/or methodologies for problem solving. In this ...

  2. The Limitations of Applying Rational Decision-Making Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more. specificaDy to the use .... also assumes that the individual operates as a rational decision- making organism in ..... work involves: Motivation; Counselling; Distribution ofIEC mate-.

  3. Towards An Intelligent Model-Based Decision Support System For An Integrated Oil Company (EGPC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorshid, M.; Hassan, H.; Abdel Latife, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    Decision Support System (DSS) is an interactive, flexible and adaptable computer-based support system specially developed for supporting the solution of unstructured management problems [31] DSS has become widespread for oil industry domain in recent years. The computer-based DSS, which were developed and implemented in oil industry, are used to address the complex short-term planning and operational issues associated with downstream industry. Most of these applications concentrate on the data-centered tools, while the model-centered applications of DSS are still very limited up till now [20]. This study develops an Intelligent Model-Based DSS for an integrated oil company, to help policy makers and petroleum planner in improving the effectiveness of the strategic planning in oil sector. This domain basically imposes semi-structured or unstructured decisions and involves a very complex modeling process

  4. Strategic Planning through Model Checking of ATL Formulae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamroga, W.J.; Rutkowski, L.; Siekmann, J.; Tadeusiewicz, R.; Zadeh, L.A.

    2004-01-01

    Model checking of temporal logic has already been proposed for automatic planning. In this paper, we introduce a simple adaptation of the ATL model checking algorithm that returns a strategy to achieve given goal. We point out that the algorithm generalizes minimaxing, and that ATL models generalize

  5. Modeling decisions information fusion and aggregation operators

    CERN Document Server

    Torra, Vicenc

    2007-01-01

    Information fusion techniques and aggregation operators produce the most comprehensive, specific datum about an entity using data supplied from different sources, thus enabling us to reduce noise, increase accuracy, summarize and extract information, and make decisions. These techniques are applied in fields such as economics, biology and education, while in computer science they are particularly used in fields such as knowledge-based systems, robotics, and data mining. This book covers the underlying science and application issues related to aggregation operators, focusing on tools used in practical applications that involve numerical information. Starting with detailed introductions to information fusion and integration, measurement and probability theory, fuzzy sets, and functional equations, the authors then cover the following topics in detail: synthesis of judgements, fuzzy measures, weighted means and fuzzy integrals, indices and evaluation methods, model selection, and parameter extraction. The method...

  6. Models of sequential decision making in consumer lending

    OpenAIRE

    Kanshukan Rajaratnam; Peter A. Beling; George A. Overstreet

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we introduce models of sequential decision making in consumer lending. From the definition of adverse selection in static lending models, we show that homogenous borrowers take-up offers at different instances of time when faced with a sequence of loan offers. We postulate that bounded rationality and diverse decision heuristics used by consumers drive the decisions they make about credit offers. Under that postulate, we show how observation of early decisions in a seq...

  7. Strategic Stillness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hupalo, Mariia

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the world, we can observe visible complexities, ambiguities and activities of continuously overlapping strategic pursuits of different interest groups. Seen this way, the materialities of parking systems can stage and determine contemporary mobilities in two ways: through decisions taken...... “from above” – design and planning regulations, and “from below” by humans who choose modes of transport, ways of interacting and time of travel. These entanglements of technology and culture are manifested in parking infrastructures....

  8. Strategic sizing of energy storage facilities in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nasrolahpour, Ehsan; Kazempour, Seyyedjalal; Zareipour, Hamidreza

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a model to determine the optimasize of an energy storage facility from a strategic investor’s perspective. This investor seeks to maximize its profit through making strategic planning, i.e., storage sizing, and strategic operational, i.e., offering and bidding, decisions. We...... consider the uncertainties associated with rival generators’ offering strategies and future load levels in the proposed model. The strategic investment decisions include the sizes of charging device, discharging device and energy reservoir. The proposed model is a stochastic bi-level optimization problem......; the planning and operation decisions are made in the upper-level, and market clearing is modeled in the lower-level under different operating scenarios. To make the proposed model computationally tractable, an iterative solution technique based on Benders’ decomposition is implemented. This provides a master...

  9. Energy systems analysis modeling as a decision tool; Systemanalytisk energimodell som beslutsverktyg. Borlaenge och andra kommuner i Dalarna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byman, Karin

    1999-10-01

    The hypothesis is that `a system optimisation model can be a powerful tool to produce basic data for strategic decision making in a local energy company`. Another question is: do the companies trust the results? The model used is MODEST, which is a model for energy-system optimisation, built on linear programming. The local energy system in the municipality of Borlaenge, has been analysed by means of MODEST and at the same time a traditional study has been carried out by an experienced energy-consultant. Both investigations were made under exactly the same conditions but totally independent of each other. Both studies came to same conclusions, and this was very important for the continued work. A more extensive investigation was made when five communities, including Borlaenge, joined to analyse the optimal energy supply in the region of Dalarna. The other communities are Hedemora, Saeter, Avesta and Falun. By following the decision-making process in Borlaenge and the other communities it has been possible to judge the usefulness of the MODEST model and the concept of energy system analyses that goes with it. The energy companies were interviewed about their experiences of the model. They all agree that they have confidence in the model, as the results correspond with their own calculations and knowledge of their energy systems. The process is easy to follow and the inputs to the model are data that always have to be processed in an investigation of a new investment or other changes of the energy supply. The result of the analysis is easy to comprehend. Regarding Borlaenge a decisive strategic decision has not yet been made. That depends on external insecurities on the energy market which are outside the modelling process. Not making a decision is also a strategic act. Based on the results of the analysis that have been made during the period of this work, 1997-1999, Borlaenge Energy has decided to postpone the final decision for two or three years. The president of

  10. Conceptualizing strategic business model innovation leadership for business survival and business model innovation excellence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindgren, Peter; Abdullah, Maizura Ailin

    2013-01-01

    Too many businesses are being marginalized by blind "business model innovations (BMIs)" and simple "BMIs". As documented in previous research (Markides 2008, Lindgren 2012), most businesses perform BMIs at a reactive level i.e. perceiving what the market, customers and network partners might want...... rather than what they actually demand. Few businesses have the ability to proactively lead BMIs and on a strategic level lead BMIs to something that fits the business’s long term perspective (Hamel 2011). Apple, Ryanair, Facebook, Zappo are some businesses that have shown BMI Leadership (BMIL......) in a proactive way - and more importantly, as some examples of first level BMIL. The overall aim of the BMIL is to prevent businesses from being marginalized by the BMI and thereby to optimize the business’s total BMI investment. The literature research and case research we studied gave us some important...

  11. A communication model of shared decision making: accounting for cancer treatment decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siminoff, Laura A; Step, Mary M

    2005-07-01

    The authors present a communication model of shared decision making (CMSDM) that explicitly identifies the communication process as the vehicle for decision making in cancer treatment. In this view, decision making is necessarily a sociocommunicative process whereby people enter into a relationship, exchange information, establish preferences, and choose a course of action. The model derives from contemporary notions of behavioral decision making and ethical conceptions of the doctor-patient relationship. This article briefly reviews the theoretical approaches to decision making, notes deficiencies, and embeds a more socially based process into the dynamics of the physician-patient relationship, focusing on cancer treatment decisions. In the CMSDM, decisions depend on (a) antecedent factors that have potential to influence communication, (b) jointly constructed communication climate, and (c) treatment preferences established by the physician and the patient.

  12. PORTER S FIVE FORCES MODEL SCOTT MORTON S FIVE FORCES MODEL BAKOS TREACY MODEL ANALYZES STRATEGIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indra Gamayanto

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Wollongong City Council (WCC is one of the most progressive and innovative local government organizations in Australia. Wollongong City Council use Information Technology to gain the competitive advantage and to face a global economy in the future. Porter's Five Force model is one of the models that can be using at Wollongong City Council because porter's five Forces model has strength in relationship between buyer and suppliers (Bargaining power of suppliers and bargaining power of buyers. Other model such as Scott Morton's Five Forces model has strength to analyze the social impact factor, so to gain competitive advantage in the future and have a good IT/IS strategic planning; this model can be use also. Bakos & Treacy model almost the same as Porter's model but Bakos & Treacy model can also be applying into Wollongong City Council to improve the capability in Transforming organization, efficiency, and effectiveness.

  13. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. cyber livestock communication in rural india: a strategic model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The cyber extension system focuses the overall development of the livestock farmers including production, management, marketing and other rural developmental activities, thus conceptualizing a livestock communication model and defining anything that can be fit into this model as Cyber Communication was felt ...

  15. From Reactionary to Responsive: Applying the Internal Environmental Scan Protocol to Lifelong Learning Strategic Planning and Operational Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downing, David L.

    2009-01-01

    This study describes and implements a necessary preliminary strategic planning procedure, the Internal Environmental Scanning (IES), and discusses its relevance to strategic planning and university-sponsored lifelong learning program model selection. Employing a qualitative research methodology, a proposed lifelong learning-centric IES process…

  16. THE STRATEGIST THOUGHT: GRANTED FACTORS IN THE STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING OF THE SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES DOI: 10.5585/riae.v8i2.1641

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Werner Duarte Dalla

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The organizational behavior is linked to the strategic decision-making, carried through its main decision-makers, called "strategists". This behavior, in organizational daily actions or planning, shifts its performance to consider market and tangible and intangible resources. The present study aimed to contribute in the understanding of how these actors formulate their strategies, build their heuristics, to manage their firms to improve organizational performance. The RepGrid - Repertory Grid (Kelly, 1955 was chosen as the method, which was undertaken with the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs owners of the footwear area of a relevant cluster production of Nova Serrana-MG - Brazil. The results appointed agent factors of attention, which centralize the decision in the managers or owners, base on financial results, asses actual internal factors so that external sales, and lead to a emergent and less formalized process.

  17. Risk-Averse Newsvendor Model with Strategic Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tie Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The classic newsvendor problem focuses on maximizing the expected profit or minimizing the expected cost when the newsvendor faces myopic customers. However, it ignores the customer’s bargain-hunting behavior and risk preference measure of the newsvendor. As a result, we carry out the rational expectation (RE equilibrium analysis for risk-averse newsvendor facing forward-looking customers who anticipate future sales and choose purchasing timing to maximize their expected surplus. We propose the equations satisfied by the RE equilibrium price and quantity for the risk-averse retailer in general setting and the explicit equilibrium decisions for the case where demand follows the uniform distribution and utility is a general power function. We identify the impacts of the system parameters on the RE equilibrium for this specific situation. In particular, we show that the RE equilibrium price for some risk-averse newsvendors is lower than for a risk-neutral retailer and the RE equilibrium stocking quantity for some risk-averse newsvendors is higher than for a risk-neutral retailer. We also find that the RE equilibrium sale price for a risk-averse newsvendor is decreasing in salvage price in some situations.

  18. A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

    2005-12-01

    We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42

  19. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  20. Impact of the disturbances of the nuclear cycle on the robustness of the strategic decisions in the long run

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courteille, Cedric

    2003-01-01

    The work of this thesis is placed within the framework of the studies of nuclear power scenarios. The search for scenarios answering a given problem does not undertake towards a single scenario but to a whole of scenarios potentially solutions. These studies are multi-criterion studies. In order to be able to compare and classify the scenarios between them, it is necessary that those are accompanied by calculations of uncertainties. The objective of this thesis is to develop methods for research of optimal scenarios for a given problem of strategy and to help a decision maker to make a final choice among these scenarios and to take into account certain uncertainties. These methods were concretized by the realization of a software which was used to solve a problem of strategy. We thus modelled a nuclear park with a closed fuel cycle and close to balance with all the components of the cycle (nuclear reactors and the associated fuel cycle facilities). Moreover, we developed a model of propagation of error based on a limited development of the equations of the model and the integration of the differential system obtained. The research of the scenarios solutions is carried out using a genetic algorithm in order to obtain the zone of Pareto of the problem and a Rough Sets method is used for multi-criteria decision-making aid. (author)

  1. Modelling contractor’s bidding decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biruk Sławomir

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors aim to provide a set of tools to facilitate the main stages of the competitive bidding process for construction contractors. These involve 1 deciding whether to bid, 2 calculating the total price, and 3 breaking down the total price into the items of the bill of quantities or the schedule of payments to optimise contractor cash flows. To define factors that affect the decision to bid, the authors rely upon literature on the subject and put forward that multi-criteria methods are applied to calculate a single measure of contract attractiveness (utility value. An attractive contract implies that the contractor is likely to offer a lower price to increase chances of winning the competition. The total bid price is thus to be interpolated between the lowest acceptable and the highest justifiable price based on the contract attractiveness. With the total bid price established, the next step is to split it between the items of the schedule of payments. A linear programming model is proposed for this purpose. The application of the models is illustrated with a numerical example.

  2. FUZZY DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR BYZANTINE AGREEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. MURUGAN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Byzantine fault tolerance is of high importance in the distributed computing environment where malicious attacks and software errors are common. A Byzantine process sends arbitrary messages to every other process. An effective fuzzy decision making approach is proposed to eliminate the Byzantine behaviour of the services in the distributed environment. It is proposed to derive a fuzzy decision set in which the alternatives are ranked with grade of membership and based on that an appropriate decision can be arrived on the messages sent by the different services. A balanced decision is to be taken from the messages received across the services. To accomplish this, Hurwicz criterion is used to balance the optimistic and pessimistic views of the decision makers on different services. Grades of membership for the services are assessed using the non-functional Quality of Service parameters and have been estimated using fuzzy entropy measure which logically ranks the participant services. This approach for decision making is tested by varying the number of processes, varying the number of faulty services, varying the message values sent to different services and considering the variation in the views of the decision makers about the services. The experimental result shows that the decision reached is an enhanced one and in case of conflict, the proposed approach provides a concrete result, whereas decision taken using the Lamport’s algorithm is an arbitrary one.

  3. A qualitative model for strategic analysis of organizations. Application and alternative proposal on a study case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Ferro Moreno

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The strategic analysis of organizations is based on the internal and external environments, in order to identify positive and negative variables and factors. The interrelation and timing of these strategic forces are essential to create alternative solutions that tend to achieve the organizational objectives.The normative prospective has theorical and methodological foundations to create a desired future and from it, be able to identify impelling and restraining forces that have influence on the particular problematic situation (go from the current situation to a better one in a certain time.The aim of this article is to analyze on a strategic way a real case with a normative-prospective model that considers the temporal dynamics of the factors impact and variables in time allowing to suggest alternative solutions.Semi-structured interviews were performed with all the employees of this case and structured observations and workshops with the commercial and general management.In consequence, with the results, the desired, current and improved situations were built. Additionally, forces were identified classified and appreciated and lastly solutions were suggested. With the proposed prospective method, alternative solutions could be constructed in order to settle temporary organizational objectives. No constraints were found to use the current method in other cases.Keywords: Strategic forces, Normative prospective, Problematic situations, Strategies

  4. FIT ANALYSIS OF INDOSAT DOMPETKU BUSINESS MODEL USING A STRATEGIC DIAGNOSIS APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fauzi Ridwansyah

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Mobile payment is an industry's response to global and regional technological-driven, as well as national social-economical driven in less cash society development. The purposes of this study were 1 identifying positioning of PT. Indosat in providing a response to Indonesian mobile payment market, 2 analyzing Indosat’s internal capabilities and business model fit with environment turbulence, and 3 formulating the optimum mobile payment business model development design for Indosat. The method used in this study was a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis through in-depth interviews with purposive judgment sampling. The analysis tools used in this study were Business Model Canvas (MBC and Ansoff’s Strategic Diagnosis. The interviewees were the representatives of PT. Indosat internal management and mobile payment business value chain stakeholders. Based on BMC mapping which is then analyzed by strategic diagnosis model, a considerable gap (>1 between the current market environment and Indosat strategy of aggressiveness with the expected future of environment turbulence level was obtained. Therefore, changes in the competitive strategy that need to be conducted include 1 developing a new customer segment, 2 shifting the value proposition that leads to the extensification of mobile payment, 3 monetizing effective value proposition, and 4 integrating effective collaboration for harmonizing company’s objective with the government's vision. Keywords: business model canvas, Indosat, mobile payment, less cash society, strategic diagnosis

  5. Modelling strategic responses to car and fuel taxation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijnen, P.; Kooreman, P.

    We develop a model to analyse the interactions between actors involved in car and fuel taxation: consumers, car producers, fuel producers and the government. Heterogeneous consumers choose between two versions of a car that differ in engine type (diesel or gasoline). Car manufacturers and fuel

  6. Maturity model for strategic collaboration in sustainable building renovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Jakob Berg; Jensen, Per Anker; Thuesen, Christian

    2017-01-01

    To enable the construction industry to execute sustainable renovation projects which entails a reduction in use of resources, an increase in productivity and a more socially sustainable construction process, new tools are needed. A maturity model can be a simple and effective tool for a company...

  7. A2e High Fidelity Modeling: Strategic Planning Meetings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammond, Steven W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sprague, Michael A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Womble, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barone, Matt [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Atmosphere to electrons (A2e) is a multi-year U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) research initiative targeting significant reductions in the cost of wind energy through an improved understanding of the complex physics governing wind flow into and through whole wind farms. Better insight into the flow physics of large multi-turbine arrays will address the plant-level energy losses, is likely to reduce annual operational costs by hundreds of millions of dollars, and will improve project financing terms to more closely resemble traditional capital projects. In support of this initiative, two planning meetings were convened, bringing together professionals from universities, national laboratories, and industry to discuss wind plant modeling challenges, requirements, best practices, and priorities. This report documents the combined work of the two meetings and serves as a key part of the foundation for the A2e/HFM effort for predictive modeling of whole wind plant physics.

  8. A generic methodology for developing fuzzy decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, R.H.; Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, Uzay; Udo, H.M.J.; Verreth, J.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    An important paradigm in decision-making models is utility-maximization where most models do not include actors’ motives. Fuzzy set theory on the other hand offers a method to simulate human decision-making. However, the literature describing expert-driven fuzzy logic models, rarely gives precise

  9. Force 2025 and Beyond Strategic Force Design Analytic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-12

    focused thinking , functional hierarchy, task capability matching 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT U 18. NUMBER OF...describe and evaluate current organizational designs in terms of Force Employment and Force Design using the model to offer recommendations and analysis...developed to illuminate the current organizational design structure to better understand how the network of BCTs and enablers function in today’s steady

  10. Industrial Energy Management Decision Making for Improved Energy Efficiency—Strategic System Perspectives and Situated Action in Combination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Thollander

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Improved industrial energy efficiency is a cornerstone in climate change mitigation. Research results suggest that there is still major untapped potential for improved industrial energy efficiency. The major model used to explain the discrepancy between optimal level of energy efficiency and the current level is the barrier model, e.g., different barriers to energy efficiency inhibit adoption of cost-effective measures. The measures outlined in research and policy action plans are almost exclusively technology-oriented, but great potential for energy efficiency improvements is also found in operational measures. Both technology and operational measures are combined in successful energy management practices. Most research in the field of energy management is grounded in engineering science, and theoretical models on how energy management in industry is carried out are scarce. One way to further develop and improve energy management, both theoretically as well as practically, is to explore how a socio-technical perspective can contribute to this understanding. In this article we will further elaborate this potential of cross-pollinating these fields. The aim of this paper is to relate energy management to two theoretical models, situated action and transaction analysis. We conclude that the current model for energy management systems, the input-output model, is insufficient for understanding in-house industrial energy management practices. By the incorporation of situated action and transaction analysis to the currently used input-output model, an enhanced understanding of the complexity of energy management is gained. It is not possible to find a single energy management solution suitable for any industrial company, but rather the idea is to find a reflexive model that can be adjusted from time to time. An idea for such a reflexive model would contain the structural elements from energy management models with consideration for decisions being

  11. 基于有限理性的企业家战略决策风险行为研究%Research on Risk Behavior for the Strategic Decision-making of Entrepreneur Based on Bounded Rationality

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任静; 刘升福

    2014-01-01

    企业家认知的有限性决定了企业家在有限理性的状态下进行战略决策。基于行为经济学和决策行为理论,研究有限理性下企业家战略决策风险行为及其影响因素。通过建立模型和实证研究来探讨企业家战略决策风险行为及其影响因素对战略决策风险行为的影响,从而为企业家战略决策风险行为管理提供依据。%The limitation of Entrepreneurs′cognition decides that entrepreneurs make strategic decisions under the limited rational state.The paper,based on the theory of behavioral economics and the decision-making behavior,studies the entrepreneur strategic decision deviation behavior based on bounded rationality and its influencing factors.Through the questionnaire,interviews and the empirical research,the paper explores the various influencing factors of entrepreneur strategic decision-making risk behavior influence on strategic decision-making risk behaviors,so as to provide the basis for entrepreneurs strategic decision-making risk behavior management.

  12. Simulation Models of Human Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina RIZUN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is presentation of the new concept of human decision-making process modeling via using the analogy with Automatic Control Theory. From the author's point of view this concept allows to develop and improve the theory of decision-making in terms of the study and classification of specificity of the human intellectual processes in different conditions. It was proved that the main distinguishing feature between the Heuristic / Intuitive and Rational Decision-Making Models is the presence of so-called phenomenon of "enrichment" of the input information with human propensity, hobbies, tendencies, expectations, axioms and judgments, presumptions or bias and their justification. In order to obtain additional knowledge about the basic intellectual processes as well as the possibility of modeling the decision results in various parameters characterizing the decision-maker, the complex of the simulation models was developed. These models are based on the assumptions that:  basic intellectual processes of the Rational Decision-Making Model can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the proportional-integral-derivative controller; basic intellectual processes of the Bounded Rationality and Intuitive Models can be adequately simulated and identified by the transient processes of the nonlinear elements.The taxonomy of the most typical automatic control theory elements and their compliance with certain decision-making models with a point of view of decision-making process specificity and decision-maker behavior during a certain time of professional activity was obtained.

  13. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  14. Driving Strategic Risk Planning With Predictive Modelling For Managerial Accounting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Pontoppidan, Iens Christian

    for managerial accounting and shows how it can be used to determine the impact of different types of risk assessment input parameters on the variability of important outcome measures. The purpose is to: (i) point out the theoretical necessity of a stochastic risk framework; (ii) present a stochastic framework......Currently, risk management in management/managerial accounting is treated as deterministic. Although it is well-known that risk estimates are necessarily uncertain or stochastic, until recently the methodology required to handle stochastic risk-based elements appear to be impractical and too...... mathematical. The ultimate purpose of this paper is to “make the risk concept procedural and analytical” and to argue that accountants should now include stochastic risk management as a standard tool. Drawing on mathematical modelling and statistics, this paper methodically develops risk analysis approach...

  15. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  16. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  17. A Layered Decision Model for Cost-Effective System Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Huaqiang; Alves-Foss, James; Soule, Terry; Pforsich, Hugh; Zhang, Du; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2008-10-01

    System security involves decisions in at least three areas: identification of well-defined security policies, selection of cost-effective defence strategies, and implementation of real-time defence tactics. Although choices made in each of these areas affect the others, existing decision models typically handle these three decision areas in isolation. There is no comprehensive tool that can integrate them to provide a single efficient model for safeguarding a network. In addition, there is no clear way to determine which particular combinations of defence decisions result in cost-effective solutions. To address these problems, this paper introduces a Layered Decision Model (LDM) for use in deciding how to address defence decisions based on their cost-effectiveness. To validate the LDM and illustrate how it is used, we used simulation to test model rationality and applied the LDM to the design of system security for an e-commercial business case.

  18. A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream market) and which explicitly includes infrastructure capacities. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition in both markets, perfect competition in both markets, and perfect competition in the downstream with Cournot competition in the upstream market (EU liberalization). We find that Cournot competition in both markets is the most accurate representation of today's European natural gas market, where suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up at the expense of the final customer (double marginalization). Our results yield a diversified supply portfolio with newly emerging (LNG) exporters gaining market shares. Enforcing competition in the European downstream market would lead to lower prices and higher quantities by avoiding the welfare-reducing effects of double marginalization. Binding infrastructure capacity restrictions strongly influence the results, and we identify bottlenecks mainly for intra-European trade relations whereas transport capacity in the upstream market is globally sufficient in the Cournot scenario. (author)

  19. Modeling Based Decision Support Environment, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Phoenix Integration's vision is the creation of an intuitive human-in-the-loop engineering environment called Decision Navigator that leverages recent advances in...

  20. A cooperative model of decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armour, A.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper will describe an experiment aimed at increasing the social responsiveness of planning and decision processes. It involves an on-going effort by the canadian federal government to site a facility to manage low level radioactive wastes

  1. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

  2. Risk perception and strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, Jeffrey D.

    2005-01-01

    The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate the wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system

  3. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-12-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  4. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrennikova, Polina [School of Management, University of Leicester, University Road Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-18

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schroedinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schroedinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  5. Evolution of quantum-like modeling in decision making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikova, Polina

    2012-01-01

    The application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model behavioral patterns in social science and economics is a novel and constantly emerging field. The aim of the so called 'quantum like' models is to model the decision making processes in a macroscopic setting, capturing the particular 'context' in which the decisions are taken. Several subsequent empirical findings proved that when making a decision people tend to violate the axioms of expected utility theory and Savage's Sure Thing principle, thus violating the law of total probability. A quantum probability formula was devised to describe more accurately the decision making processes. A next step in the development of QL-modeling in decision making was the application of Schrödinger equation to describe the evolution of people's mental states. A shortcoming of Schrödinger equation is its inability to capture dynamics of an open system; the brain of the decision maker can be regarded as such, actively interacting with the external environment. Recently the master equation, by which quantum physics describes the process of decoherence as the result of interaction of the mental state with the environmental 'bath', was introduced for modeling the human decision making. The external environment and memory can be referred to as a complex 'context' influencing the final decision outcomes. The master equation can be considered as a pioneering and promising apparatus for modeling the dynamics of decision making in different contexts.

  6. A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF COLLECTIVE URBAN TRANSPORT IN SPAIN USING THE FIVE FORCES MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gómez Ortega, Alba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector in Spain is a branch of economic activity which is already of great importanceaccording to its own invoicing, value added and occupation figures, in addition to its indirect economic effects. It has an additional strategic value for economic policy, since it constitutes a fundamental part ofthe cost of placing products on increasing markets in a competitive manner. The mobility and trans-portation of passengers in cities in turn plays an essential role in the economic and social activity. All of these reasons, in addition to the recent significant problems of ustainability which this priority sector is currently confronting in all aspects, justify an interest in a study which attempts to obtaina profile of this public service by using a strategic analysis through the application of the traditional Porter Five Forces Model. The application of this model will allow us to obtain a general strategic vision which, when combined with a maturity analysis, ill provide a more in-depth knowledge of the object under study, that will serve as a basis for subsequent analyses of the collective urban public transport service.

  7. A Model for Evidence Accumulation in the Lexical Decision Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Steyvers, Mark; Raaijmakers, Jeroen G. W.; Shiffrin, Richard M.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Zeelenberg, Rene

    2004-01-01

    We present a new model for lexical decision, REM-LD, that is based on REM theory (e.g., Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997). REM-LD uses a principled (i.e., Bayes' rule) decision process that simultaneously considers the diagnosticity of the evidence for the 'WORD' response and the 'NONWORD' response. The model calculates the odds ratio that the presented…

  8. Relevance of a Managerial Decision-Model to Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, Edward.; Welty, Gordon

    The rational model of classical economic theory assumes that the decision maker has complete information on alternatives and consequences, and that he chooses the alternative that maximizes expected utility. This model does not allow for constraints placed on the decision maker resulting from lack of information, organizational pressures,…

  9. Embedding a State Space Model Into a Markov Decision Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Relund; Jørgensen, Erik; Højsgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    In agriculture Markov decision processes (MDPs) with finite state and action space are often used to model sequential decision making over time. For instance, states in the process represent possible levels of traits of the animal and transition probabilities are based on biological models...

  10. Reviewing model application to support animal health decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Alexander; Salman, Mo; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2011-04-01

    Animal health is of societal importance as it affects human welfare, and anthropogenic interests shape decision making to assure animal health. Scientific advice to support decision making is manifold. Modelling, as one piece of the scientific toolbox, is appreciated for its ability to describe and structure data, to give insight in complex processes and to predict future outcome. In this paper we study the application of scientific modelling to support practical animal health decisions. We reviewed the 35 animal health related scientific opinions adopted by the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Panel of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thirteen of these documents were based on the application of models. The review took two viewpoints, the decision maker's need and the modeller's approach. In the reviewed material three types of modelling questions were addressed by four specific model types. The correspondence between tasks and models underpinned the importance of the modelling question in triggering the modelling approach. End point quantifications were the dominating request from decision makers, implying that prediction of risk is a major need. However, due to knowledge gaps corresponding modelling studies often shed away from providing exact numbers. Instead, comparative scenario analyses were performed, furthering the understanding of the decision problem and effects of alternative management options. In conclusion, the most adequate scientific support for decision making - including available modelling capacity - might be expected if the required advice is clearly stated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Full closure strategic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The full closure strategic analysis was conducted to create a decision process whereby full roadway : closures for construction and maintenance activities can be evaluated and approved or denied by CDOT : Traffic personnel. The study reviewed current...

  12. Modeling Adversaries in Counterterrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrick, Jason R W; Leclerc, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Counterterrorism decisions have been an intense area of research in recent years. Both decision analysis and game theory have been used to model such decisions, and more recently approaches have been developed that combine the techniques of the two disciplines. However, each of these approaches assumes that the attacker is maximizing its utility. Experimental research shows that human beings do not make decisions by maximizing expected utility without aid, but instead deviate in specific ways such as loss aversion or likelihood insensitivity. In this article, we modify existing methods for counterterrorism decisions. We keep expected utility as the defender's paradigm to seek for the rational decision, but we use prospect theory to solve for the attacker's decision to descriptively model the attacker's loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity. We study the effects of this approach in a critical decision, whether to screen containers entering the United States for radioactive materials. We find that the defender's optimal decision is sensitive to the attacker's levels of loss aversion and likelihood insensitivity, meaning that understanding such descriptive decision effects is important in making such decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Rodent models of adaptive decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izquierdo, Alicia; Belcher, Annabelle M

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive decision making affords the animal the ability to respond quickly to changes in a dynamic environment: one in which attentional demands, cost or effort to procure the reward, and reward contingencies change frequently. The more flexible the organism is in adapting choice behavior, the more command and success the organism has in navigating its environment. Maladaptive decision making is at the heart of much neuropsychiatric disease, including addiction. Thus, a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie normal, adaptive decision making helps achieve a better understanding of certain diseases that incorporate maladaptive decision making as a core feature. This chapter presents three general domains of methods that the experimenter can manipulate in animal decision-making tasks: attention, effort, and reward contingency. Here, we present detailed methods of rodent tasks frequently employed within these domains: the Attentional Set-Shift Task, Effortful T-maze Task, and Visual Discrimination Reversal Learning. These tasks all recruit regions within the frontal cortex and the striatum, and performance is heavily modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine, making these assays highly valid measures in the study of psychostimulant addiction.

  14. The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

  15. Modeling Strategic Use of Human Computer Interfaces with Novel Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Jane Mariano

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Immersive software tools are virtual environments designed to give their users an augmented view of real-world data and ways of manipulating that data. As virtual environments, every action users make while interacting with these tools can be carefully logged, as can the state of the software and the information it presents to the user, giving these actions context. This data provides a high-resolution lens through which dynamic cognitive and behavioral processes can be viewed. In this report, we describe new methods for the analysis and interpretation of such data, utilizing a novel implementation of the Beta Process Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM for analysis of software activity logs. We further report the results of a preliminary study designed to establish the validity of our modeling approach. A group of 20 participants were asked to play a simple computer game, instrumented to log every interaction with the interface. Participants had no previous experience with the game’s functionality or rules, so the activity logs collected during their naïve interactions capture patterns of exploratory behavior and skill acquisition as they attempted to learn the rules of the game. Pre- and post-task questionnaires probed for self-reported styles of problem solving, as well as task engagement, difficulty, and workload. We jointly modeled the activity log sequences collected from all participants using the BP-HMM approach, identifying a global library of activity patterns representative of the collective behavior of all the participants. Analyses show systematic relationships between both pre- and post-task questionnaires, self-reported approaches to analytic problem solving, and metrics extracted from the BP-HMM decomposition. Overall, we find that this novel approach to decomposing unstructured behavioral data within software environments provides a sensible means for understanding how users learn to integrate software functionality for strategic

  16. Knowledge-Based Decision Model Construction for Dynamic Interpretation Tasks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wellman, Michael

    1997-01-01

    ...) is highly variable, precluding specification of a fixed model in advance. The project yielded technical results in four areas of reasoning and decision making under uncertainty involving model construction: (1...

  17. The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2008-01-01

    The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

  18. A Model of System and Strategic Financial Analysis of the Crimean Health Resorts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim Anatolyevich Malyshenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the research is the system of strategically focused financial analysis regarding an assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise. The hypothesis of the study is to assume the possibility of developing the financial and strategic model of the comprehensive assessment of the financial condition taking into account the integrated impact of environmental factors (general for the most Crimean health resorts. The methodology of the work is based on the most general principles of system analysis. The basic method of the research is the matrix method as the most common one for the system analysis. The graphical and statistical methods are also used. The result of the work is the comprehensive method of financial analysis developed as a model based on the matrix relation between the original visual profile of the internal environment and the dynamic type of external environment. The difference of the visual model of financial state from the existing graphic methods consists in fixing of the new strategic types of financial state on the basis of financial stability in visually grouped areas of financial coefficients in theme groups (configurationsprofiles with certain combinations of the forms and sizes. The new analytical instrument of «frigate model» can be applied in all analytical activities of the health resorts departments related to the analytical assessment of financial state. The advantage of «frigate model» in comparison with a classical method of the forming of the types of financial condition is that the proposed model allows to allocate more differentiated types and in addition, to identify the stages of enterprise life cycle based on the relative indicators of the analysis of financial state (objects-coefficients, and not just on the financial management. Through this, the consistency of interaction between the financial analysis and management is achieved.

  19. Automobile Industry Strategic Alliance Partner Selection: The Application of a Hybrid DEA and Grey Theory Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Nan Wang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Finding the right strategic alliance partner is a critical success factor for many enterprises. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to propose an effective approach based on grey theory and data envelopment analysis (DEA for selecting better partners for alliance. This study used grey forecasting to predict future business performances and used DEA for the partner selection of alliances. This research was implemented with realistic public data in four consecutive financial years (2009–2012 of the world’s 20 biggest automobile enterprises. Nissan Motor Co., Ltd was set to be the target decision making unit (DMU. The empirical results showed that, among 19 candidate DMUs, Renault (DMU10 and Daimler (DMU11 were the two feasible beneficial alliance partners for Nissan. Although this research is specifically applied to the automobile industry, the proposed method could also be applied to other manufacturing industries.

  20. A cost-constrained model of strategic service quality emphasis in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, M A; Provan, K G

    1996-02-01

    This study employed structural equation modeling to test the relationship between three aspects of the environmental context of nursing homes; Medicaid dependence, ownership status, and market demand, and two basic strategic orientations: low cost and differentiation based on service quality emphasis. Hypotheses were proposed and tested against data collected from a sample of nursing homes operating in a single state. Because of the overwhelming importance of cost control in the nursing home industry, a cost constrained strategy perspective was supported. Specifically, while the three contextual variables had no direct effect on service quality emphasis, the entire model was supported when cost control orientation was introduced as a mediating variable.