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Sample records for strain causing epidemic

  1. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

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    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  2. Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains potentially involved in the TB epidemic in Sweden a century ago.

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    Ramona Groenheit

    Full Text Available UNLABELLED: A hundred years ago the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB in Sweden was one of the highest in the world. In this study we conducted a population-based search for distinct strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolated from patients born in Sweden before 1945. Many of these isolates represent the M. tuberculosis complex population that fueled the TB epidemic in Sweden during the first half of the 20(th century. METHODS: Genetic relationships between strains that caused the epidemic and present day strains were studied by spoligotyping and restriction fragment length polymorphism. RESULTS: The majority of the isolates from the elderly population were evolutionary recent Principal Genetic Group (PGG2/3 strains (363/409 or 88.8%, and only a low proportion were ancient PGG1 strains (24/409 or 5.9%. Twenty-two were undefined. The isolates demonstrated a population where the Euro-American superlineage dominated; in particular with Haarlem (41.1% and T (37.7% spoligotypes and only 21.2% belonged to other spoligotype families. Isolates from the elderly population clustered much less frequently than did isolates from a young control group population. CONCLUSIONS: A closely knit pool of PGG2/3 strains restricted to Sweden and its immediate neighbours appears to have played a role in the epidemic, while PGG1 strains are usually linked to migrants in todaýs Sweden. Further studies of these outbreak strains may give indications of why the epidemic waned.

  3. Endemic and Epidemic Lineages of Escherichia coli that Cause Urinary Tract Infections

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    Tabor, Helen; Tellis, Patricia; Vincent, Caroline; Tellier, Pierre-Paul

    2008-01-01

    Women with urinary tract infections (UTIs) in California, USA (1999–2001), were infected with closely related or indistinguishable strains of Escherichia coli (clonal groups), which suggests point source dissemination. We compared strains of UTI-causing E. coli in California with strains causing such infections in Montréal, Québec, Canada. Urine specimens from women with community-acquired UTIs in Montréal (2006) were cultured for E. coli. Isolates that caused 256 consecutive episodes of UTI were characterized by antimicrobial drug susceptibility profile, enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus 2 PCR, serotyping, XbaI and NotI pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing, and phylogenetic typing. We confirmed the presence of drug-resistant, genetically related, and temporally clustered E. coli clonal groups that caused community-acquired UTIs in unrelated women in 2 locations and 2 different times. Two clonal groups were identified in both locations. Epidemic transmission followed by endemic transmission of UTI-causing clonal groups may explain these clusters of UTI cases. PMID:18826822

  4. Analysis of the epidemiological dynamics during the 1982-1983 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Denmark based on molecular high-resolution strain identification

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    Christensen, Laurids Siig; Normann, Preben; Thykier-Nielsen, Søren

    2005-01-01

    An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causing a total of 23 cases in 1982-1983, primarily on the island of Funen, Denmark, was subjected to molecular epidemiological investigations. In an attempt to exploit the quasi-species nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus strains for molecular high......-resolution strain identification in order to analyse the dynamics of this epidemic, full-length VP1 coding regions were sequenced for 17 isolates collected at different farms during the epidemic. The sequence information together with epidemiological information gathered during the epidemic suggests......, and the prerequisite of co- or superinfection of animals with variant strains in turn implies that they have a common source or epidemiologically related sources originating from an area with endemic FMD....

  5. Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

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    Kharis, M.; Amidi

    2018-03-01

    The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

  6. A laminar flow model of aerosol survival of epidemic and non-epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from people with cystic fibrosis

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    Denton Miles

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cystic fibrosis (CF is an inherited multi-system disorder characterised by chronic airway infection with pathogens such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Acquisition of P. aeruginosa by patients with CF is usually from the environment, but recent studies have demonstrated patient to patient transmission of certain epidemic strains, possibly via an airborne route. This study was designed to examine the survival of P. aeruginosa within artificially generated aerosols. Results Survival was effected by the solution used for aerosol generation. Within the aerosols it was adversely affected by an increase in air temperature. Both epidemic and non-epidemic strains of P. aeruginosa were able to survive within the aerosols, but strains expressing a mucoid phenotype had a survival advantage. Conclusion This would suggest that segregating individuals free of P. aeruginosa from those with chronic P. aeruginosa infection who are more likely to be infected with mucoid strains may help reduce the risk of cross-infection. Environmental factors also appear to influence bacterial survival. Warming and drying the air within clinical areas and avoidance of humidification devices may also be beneficial in reducing the risk of cross-infection.

  7. Listeriolysin S: A bacteriocin from epidemic Listeria monocytogenes strains that targets the gut microbiota.

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    Quereda, Juan J; Meza-Torres, Jazmín; Cossart, Pascale; Pizarro-Cerdá, Javier

    2017-07-04

    Listeria monocytogenes is a Gram-positive food-borne pathogen that in humans may traverse the intestinal, placental and blood/brain barriers, causing gastroenteritis, abortions and meningitis. Crossing of these barriers is dependent on the bacterial ability to enter host cells, and several L. monocytogenes surface and secreted virulence factors are known to facilitate entry and the intracellular lifecycle. The study of L. monocytogenes strains associated to human listeriosis epidemics has revealed the presence of novel virulence factors. One such factor is Listeriolysin S, a thiazole/oxazole modified microcin that displays bactericidal activity and modifies the host microbiota during infection. Our recent results therefore highlight the interaction of L. monocytogenes with gut microbes as a crucial step in epidemic listeriosis. In this article, we will discuss novel implications for this family of toxins in the pathogenesis of diverse medically relevant microorganisms.

  8. [Comparative analysis on the complete genome sequence of mumps epidemic strain and mumps vaccine strain S79 isolated in Zhejiang province, China between year 2005 and 2010].

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    Zhang, Dong-Yan; Feng, Yan; Zhong, Shu-Ling; Lu, Yi-Yu; Zhuang, Fang-Cheng; Xu, Chang-Ping

    2012-03-01

    To compare the differences in the complete genome sequence between mumps epidemic strain and mumps vaccine strain S79 isolated in Zhejiang province. A total of 4 mumps epidemic strains, which were separated from Zhejiang province during 2005 to 2010, named as ZJ05-1, ZJ06-3, ZJ08-1 and ZJ10-1 were selected in the study. The complete genome sequences were amplified using RT-PCR. The genetic differences between vaccine strain S79 and other genotype strains were compared; while the genetic-distance was calculated and the evolution was analyzed. The biggest difference between the 4 epidemic strains and the vaccine strain S79 was found on the membrane associated protein gene; whose average nucleotide differential number was 42.5 +/- 3.0 and the average variant ratio was 13.6%; while the mean amino acid differential number was 12.8 +/- 1.5 and the average variant ratio was 22.4%. The smallest difference among the 4 epidemic strains and the vaccine strain was found in stromatin genes, whose average nucleotide differential number was 73.8 +/- 2.5 and the average variant ratio was 5.9%; while the mean amino acid differential number was 3.0 +/- 0.8 and the average variant ratio was 0.8%. The dn/ds value of the stromatin genes of the 4 epidemic strains reached the highest, as 0.6526; but without any positive pressure (dn/ds 0.05). There were mutations happened on the known antigen epitope, as 8th amino acid of membrane associated protein genes and on the 336th and 356th amino acid of hemagglutinin/neuraminidase proteins. Compared with the vaccine strain, the glycosylation sites of ZJ05-1, ZJ06-3, ZJ08-1 and ZJ10-1 increased 1, 1, 2 and 2 respectively. The complete amino acid sequence of all strains showed that there were 17 characteristic sites found on the genotype-F mumps strain. Within the complete genome, the genetic-distance between epidemic strains and vaccine strains in Zhejiang province (0.071) was significantly larger than the genetic-distance between strains in

  9. [The characteristics of epidemic influenza A and B virus strains circulating in Russia during the 2007-2008 season].

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    Ivanova, V T; Trushakova, S V; Oskerko, T A; Shevchenko, E S; Kolobukhina, L V; Vartanian, R V; Beliakova, N V; Iatsyshina, S B; Feodoritova, E L; Zueva, N D; Burtseva, E I

    2009-01-01

    In 2007-2008 in Russia, the epidemic upsurge of influenza morbidity was caused by the active circulation of influenza A(H1N1, A(H3N2), and B viruses. The center for Ecology and Epidemiology of Influenza studied 334 epidemic strains. The results of a comparative study of the svirus specificity of commercial test systems (AmpliSens Influenza virus A/B and AmpliSens Influenza virus A/H5N1) for the polymerase chain reaction diagnosis and virological assays, including virus isolation, revealed their high correlation, which confirms that they may be expensively used to monitor the circulation of influenza viruses in the Russian Federation. All the strains were isolated in the MDCK cell culture. Influenza A(H1N1) viruses (n = 127) were antigenic variants of the reference strains A/Solomon Islands/3/06 and A/Brisbane/59107. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses (n = 49) were antigenic variants of the reference strains A/Wisconsin/67/05 and A/Brisbane/10/08. One hundred and fifty seven Influenza B strains were drift variants of the reference strains B/Florida/4/06 and B/Shanghai/361/02 of lineage B/Yamagata/16/88 and one strain, a variant of Malaysia/2506/04 related to lineage B/victoria/2/87. The isolates interacted actively with human 0(I) blood group erythrocytes and much more weakly with chicken ones. All study influenza A(H1N1) viruses (n = 74) preserved their sensitivity to rimantadine while 24 (77%) of the 31 study influenza A(H3N2) virus strains were resistant. A study of the time course of changes in the generation of antibodies in the donor sera obtained in Moscow and the Moscow Region in different periods of the epidemic process revealed an increase in antibodies to the reference influenza A and B virus strains circulating in this period.

  10. Characterization and Proposed Nomenclature of Epidemic Strains of MRSA in Canada

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    AE Simor

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA has been increasing in many Canadian hospitals over the past few years. Some strains may be considered ‘epidemic’, in that they are clinically or epidemiologically significant, and have been identified in patients from multiple hospitals and geographic regions across the country. This paper describes phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of four epidemic MRSA strains in Canada and proposes standardized nomenclature.

  11. Establishment of a nanoparticle-assisted RT-PCR assay to distinguish field strains and attenuated strains of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus.

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    Zhu, Yu; Wang, Gui-Hua; Cui, Yu-Dong; Cui, Shang-Jin

    2016-09-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) can cause serious disease and even death in neonatal piglets, resulting in serious damage to the swine industry worldwide. Open reading frame 3 (ORF3) is the only accessory gene in the PEDV genome. Previous studies have indicated that PEDV vaccine strains have a partial deletion in ORF3. In this study, a nanoparticle-assisted polymerase chain reaction (nanoparticle-assisted RT-PCR) assay targeting the ORF3 of PEDV was developed to distinguish PEDV field strains from attenuated strains by using a specific pair of primers. The PCR products of field strains and attenuated strains were 264 bp and 215 bp in length, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of this assay were also assessed. The nanoparticle-assisted RT-PCR assay was 10-100 times more sensitive than the conventional RT-PCR assay, with no cross-reactions when amplifying porcine pseudorabies virus (PRV), porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2), classical swine fever virus (CSFV), porcine parvovirus (PPV), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine rotavirus (RV), and porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV). The nanoparticle-assisted RT-PCR assay we describe here can be used to distinguish field strains from vaccine strains of PEDV, and it shows promise for reducing economic loss due to PEDV infection.

  12. Effect of tcdR Mutation on Sporulation in the Epidemic Clostridium difficile Strain R20291.

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    Girinathan, Brintha P; Monot, Marc; Boyle, Daniel; McAllister, Kathleen N; Sorg, Joseph A; Dupuy, Bruno; Govind, Revathi

    2017-01-01

    Clostridium difficile is an important nosocomial pathogen and the leading cause of hospital-acquired diarrhea. Antibiotic use is the primary risk factor for the development of C. difficile -associated disease because it disrupts normally protective gut flora and enables C. difficile to colonize the colon. C. difficile damages host tissue by secreting toxins and disseminates by forming spores. The toxin-encoding genes, tcdA and tcdB , are part of a pathogenicity locus, which also includes the tcdR gene that codes for TcdR, an alternate sigma factor that initiates transcription of tcdA and tcdB genes. We created a tcdR mutant in epidemic-type C. difficile strain R20291 in an attempt to identify the global role of tcdR . A site-directed mutation in tcdR affected both toxin production and sporulation in C. difficile R20291. Spores of the tcdR mutant were more heat sensitive than the wild type (WT). Nearly 3-fold more taurocholate was needed to germinate spores from the tcdR mutant than to germinate the spores prepared from the WT strain. Transmission electron microscopic analysis of the spores also revealed a weakly assembled exosporium on the tcdR mutant spores. Accordingly, comparative transcriptome analysis showed many differentially expressed sporulation genes in the tcdR mutant compared to the WT strain. These data suggest that regulatory networks of toxin production and sporulation in C. difficile strain R20291 a re linked with each other. IMPORTANCE C. difficile infects thousands of hospitalized patients every year, causing significant morbidity and mortality. C. difficile spores play a pivotal role in the transmission of the pathogen in the hospital environment. During infection, the spores germinate, and the vegetative bacterial cells produce toxins that damage host tissue. Thus, sporulation and toxin production are two important traits of C. difficile . In this study, we showed that a mutation in tcdR , the toxin gene regulator, affects both toxin

  13. Chimera states in multi-strain epidemic models with temporary immunity

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    Bauer, Larissa; Bassett, Jason; Hövel, Philipp; Kyrychko, Yuliya N.; Blyuss, Konstantin B.

    2017-11-01

    We investigate a time-delayed epidemic model for multi-strain diseases with temporary immunity. In the absence of cross-immunity between strains, dynamics of each individual strain exhibit emergence and annihilation of limit cycles due to a Hopf bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium, and a saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles depending on the time delay associated with duration of temporary immunity. Effects of all-to-all and non-local coupling topologies are systematically investigated by means of numerical simulations, and they suggest that cross-immunity is able to induce a diverse range of complex dynamical behaviors and synchronization patterns, including discrete traveling waves, solitary states, and amplitude chimeras. Interestingly, chimera states are observed for narrower cross-immunity kernels, which can have profound implications for understanding the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.

  14. Genetic Characterization of Northwestern Colombian Chikungunya Virus Strains from the 2014-2015 Epidemic.

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    Rodas, Juan D; Kautz, Tiffany; Camacho, Erwin; Paternina, Luis; Guzmán, Hilda; Díaz, Francisco J; Blanco, Pedro; Tesh, Robert; Weaver, Scott C

    2016-09-07

    Chikungunya fever, an acute and often chronic arthralgic disease caused by the mosquito-borne alphavirus, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), spread into the Americas in late 2013. Since then it has caused epidemics in nearly all New World countries, the second largest being Colombia with over 450,000 suspected cases beginning in September, 2014, and focused in Bolivar Department in the north. We examined 32 human sera from suspected cases, including diverse age groups and both genders, and sequenced the CHIKV envelope glycoprotein genes, known determinants of vector host range. As expected for Asian lineage CHIKV strains, these isolates lacked known Aedes albopictus-adaptive mutations. All the Colombian strains were closely related to those from the Virgin Islands, Saint Lucia, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Brazil, consistent with a single, point-source introduction from the southeast Asia/Pacific region. Two substitutions in the E2 and E1 envelope glycoprotein genes were found in the Colombian strains, especially E1-K211E involving a residue shown previously to affect epistatically the penetrance of the E1-A226V A. albopictus-adaptive substitution. We also identified two amino acid substitutions unique to all American CHIKV sequences: E2-V368A and 6K-L20M. Only one codon, 6K-47, had a high nonsynonymous substitution rate suggesting positive selection. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  15. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

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    Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

    2015-05-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Epidemic of Postsurgical Infections Caused by Mycobacterium massiliense▿

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    Duarte, Rafael Silva; Lourenço, Maria Cristina Silva; Fonseca, Leila de Souza; Leão, Sylvia Cardoso; Amorim, Efigenia de Lourdes T.; Rocha, Ingrid L. L.; Coelho, Fabrice Santana; Viana-Niero, Cristina; Gomes, Karen Machado; da Silva, Marlei Gomes; de Oliveira Lorena, Nádia Suely; Pitombo, Marcos Bettini; Ferreira, Rosa M. C.; de Oliveira Garcia, Márcio Henrique; de Oliveira, Gisele Pinto; Lupi, Otilia; Vilaça, Bruno Rios; Serradas, Lúcia Rodrigues; Chebabo, Alberto; Marques, Elizabeth Andrade; Teixeira, Lúcia Martins; Dalcolmo, Margareth; Senna, Simone Gonçalves; Sampaio, Jorge Luiz Mello

    2009-01-01

    An epidemic of infections after video-assisted surgery (1,051 possible cases) caused by rapidly growing mycobacteria (RGM) and involving 63 hospitals in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, occurred between August 2006 and July 2007. One hundred ninety-seven cases were confirmed by positive acid-fast staining and/or culture techniques. Thirty-eight hospitals had cases confirmed by mycobacterial culture, with a total of 148 available isolates recovered from 146 patients. Most (n = 144; 97.2%) isolates presented a PRA-hsp65 restriction pattern suggestive of Mycobacterium bolletii or Mycobacterium massiliense. Seventy-four of these isolates were further identified by hsp65 or rpoB partial sequencing, confirming the species identification as M. massiliense. Epidemic isolates showed susceptibility to amikacin (MIC at which 90% of the tested isolates are inhibited [MIC90], 8 μg/ml) and clarithromycin (MIC90, 0.25 μg/ml) but resistance to ciprofloxacin (MIC90, ≥32 μg/ml), cefoxitin (MIC90, 128 μg/ml), and doxycycline (MIC90, ≥64 μg/ml). Representative epidemic M. massiliense isolates that were randomly selected, including at least one isolate from each hospital where confirmed cases were detected, belonged to a single clone, as indicated by the analysis of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns. They also had the same PFGE pattern as that previously observed in two outbreaks that occurred in other Brazilian cities; we designated this clone BRA100. All five BRA100 M. massiliense isolates tested presented consistent tolerance to 2% glutaraldehyde. This is the largest epidemic of postsurgical infections caused by RGM reported in the literature to date in Brazil. PMID:19403765

  17. Characterisation of MRSA from Malta and the description of a Maltese epidemic MRSA strain.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Scicluna, E A

    2010-02-01

    Malta has one of the highest prevalence rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Europe. However, only limited typing data are currently available. In order to address this situation, 45 MRSA isolates from the Mater Dei Hospital in Msida, Malta, were characterised using DNA microarrays. The most common strain was ST22-MRSA-IV (UK-EMRSA-15, 30 isolates). Sporadic strains included ST36-MRSA-II (UK-EMRSA-16, two isolates), PVL-positive ST80-MRSA-IV (European Clone, one isolate), ST228-MRSA-I (Italian Clone\\/South German Epidemic Strain, one isolate) and ST239-MRSA-III (Vienna\\/Hungarian\\/Brazilian Epidemic Strain, one isolate). Ten MRSA isolates belonged to a clonal complex (CC) 5\\/ST149, spa type t002 strain. This strain harboured an SCCmec IV element (mecA, delta mecR, ugpQ, dcs, ccrA2 and ccrB2), as well as novel alleles of ccrA\\/B and the fusidic acid resistance element Q6GD50 (previously described in the sequenced strain MSSA476, BX571857.1:SAS0043). It also carried the gene for enterotoxin A (sea) and the egc enterotoxin locus, as well as (in nine out of ten isolates) genes encoding the toxic shock syndrome toxin (tst1) and enterotoxins C and L (sec, sel). While the presence of the other MRSA strains suggests foreign importation due to travel between Malta and other European countries, the CC5\\/t002 strain appears, so far, to be restricted to Malta.

  18. Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

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    Daniel Rios Garza

    Full Text Available The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic characteristics and the determinants of this altered sucrose fermenting phenotype, the genome of the strain IEC224 was sequenced. This paper reports a broad genomic study of this strain, showing its correlation with the major epidemic lineage. The potentially mobile genomic regions are shown to possess GC content deviation, and harbor the main V. cholera virulence genes. A novel bioinformatic approach was applied in order to identify the putative functions of hypothetical proteins, and was compared with the automatic annotation by RAST. The genome of a large bacteriophage was found to be integrated to the IEC224's alanine aminopeptidase gene. The presence of this phage is shown to be a common characteristic of the El Tor strains from the Latin American epidemic, as well as its putative ancestor from Angola. The defective sucrose fermenting phenotype is shown to be due to a single nucleotide insertion in the V. cholerae sucrose-specific transportation gene. This frame-shift mutation truncated a membrane protein, altering its structural pore-like conformation. Further, the identification of a common bacteriophage reinforces both the monophyletic and African-Origin hypotheses for the main causative agent of the 1991 Latin America cholera epidemics.

  19. OmpU as a biomarker for rapid discrimination between toxigenic and epidemic Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 and non-epidemic Vibrio cholerae in a modified MALDI-TOF MS assay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.; Trip, H.; Niemcewicz, M.; Sellek, R.; Heng, J.M.E.; Mars-Groenendijk, R.H.; Jong, A.L. de; Majchrzykiewicz-Koehorst, J.A.; Olsen, J.S.; Tsivtsivadze, E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks are caused by a genetically homogenous group of strains from serogroup O1 or O139 that are able to produce the cholera toxin. Rapid detection and identification of these epidemic strains is essential for an

  20. Slow Epidemic of Lymphogranuloma Venereum L2b Strain

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    Spaargaren, Joke; Schachter, Julius; Moncada, Jeanne; de Vries, Henry J.C.; Fennema, Han S.A.; Peña, A. Salvador; Coutinho, Roel A.

    2005-01-01

    We traced the Chlamydia trachomatis L2b variant in Amsterdam and San Francisco. All recent lymphogranuloma venereum cases in Amsterdam were caused by the L2b variant. This variant was also present in the 1980s in San Francisco. Thus, the current "outbreak" is most likely a slowly evolving epidemic. PMID:16318741

  1. A diagnostic PCR assay for the detection of an Australian epidemic strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

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    2010-01-01

    Background Chronic lung infection with the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the hallmarks of cystic fibrosis (CF) and is associated with worsening lung function, increased hospitalisation and reduced life expectancy. A virulent clonal strain of P. aeruginosa (Australian epidemic strain I; AES-I) has been found to be widespread in CF patients in eastern Australia. Methods Suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) was employed to identify genetic sequences that are present in the AES-I strain but absent from the sequenced reference strain PAO1. We used PCR to evaluate the distribution of several of the AES-I loci amongst a collection of 188 P. aeruginosa isolates which was comprised of 35 AES-I isolates (as determined by PFGE), 78 non-AES-I CF isolates including other epidemic CF strains as well as 69 P. aeruginosa isolates from other clinical and environmental sources. Results We have identified a unique AES-I genetic locus that is present in all 35 AES-I isolates tested and not present in any of the other 153 P. aeruginosa strains examined. We have used this unique AES-I locus to develop a diagnostic PCR and a real-time PCR assay to detect the presence of P. aeruginosa and AES-I in patient sputum samples. Conclusions We have developed diagnostic PCR assays that are 100% sensitive and 100% specific for the P. aeruginosa strain AES-I. We have also shown that Whatman FTA® Elute cards may be used with PCR-based assays to rapidly detect the presence of P. aeruginosa strains in CF sputum. PMID:20637114

  2. A diagnostic PCR assay for the detection of an Australian epidemic strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

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    Murphy Anna

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic lung infection with the bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the hallmarks of cystic fibrosis (CF and is associated with worsening lung function, increased hospitalisation and reduced life expectancy. A virulent clonal strain of P. aeruginosa (Australian epidemic strain I; AES-I has been found to be widespread in CF patients in eastern Australia. Methods Suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH was employed to identify genetic sequences that are present in the AES-I strain but absent from the sequenced reference strain PAO1. We used PCR to evaluate the distribution of several of the AES-I loci amongst a collection of 188 P. aeruginosa isolates which was comprised of 35 AES-I isolates (as determined by PFGE, 78 non-AES-I CF isolates including other epidemic CF strains as well as 69 P. aeruginosa isolates from other clinical and environmental sources. Results We have identified a unique AES-I genetic locus that is present in all 35 AES-I isolates tested and not present in any of the other 153 P. aeruginosa strains examined. We have used this unique AES-I locus to develop a diagnostic PCR and a real-time PCR assay to detect the presence of P. aeruginosa and AES-I in patient sputum samples. Conclusions We have developed diagnostic PCR assays that are 100% sensitive and 100% specific for the P. aeruginosa strain AES-I. We have also shown that Whatman FTA® Elute cards may be used with PCR-based assays to rapidly detect the presence of P. aeruginosa strains in CF sputum.

  3. Intercontinental spread of a genetically distinctive complex of clones of Neisseria meningitidis causing epidemic disease.

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    Caugant, D A; Frøholm, L O; Bøvre, K; Holten, E; Frasch, C E; Mocca, L F; Zollinger, W D; Selander, R K

    1986-07-01

    Strains of Neisseria meningitidis responsible for an epidemic of meningococcal disease occurring in Norway since the mid-1970s and for recent increases in the incidence of disease in several other parts of Europe have been identified by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis as members of a distinctive group of 22 closely related clones (the ET-5 complex). Clones of this complex have also colonized South Africa, Chile, Cuba, and Florida, where they have been identified as the causative agents of recent outbreaks of meningococcal disease. There is strong circumstantial evidence that outbreaks of disease occurring in Miami in 1981 and 1982 were caused in large part by bacteria that reached Florida via human immigrants from Cuba.

  4. The core proteome and pan proteome of Salmonella Paratyphi A epidemic strains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Zhang

    Full Text Available Comparative proteomics of the multiple strains within the same species can reveal the genetic variation and relationships among strains without the need to assess the genomic data. Similar to comparative genomics, core proteome and pan proteome can also be obtained within multiple strains under the same culture conditions. In this study we present the core proteome and pan proteome of four epidemic Salmonella Paratyphi A strains cultured under laboratory culture conditions. The proteomic information was obtained using a Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE technique. The expression profiles of these strains were conservative, similar to the monomorphic genome of S. Paratyphi A. Few strain-specific proteins were found in these strains. Interestingly, non-core proteins were found in similar categories as core proteins. However, significant fluctuations in the abundance of some core proteins were also observed, suggesting that there is elaborate regulation of core proteins in the different strains even when they are cultured in the same environment. Therefore, core proteome and pan proteome analysis of the multiple strains can demonstrate the core pathways of metabolism of the species under specific culture conditions, and further the specific responses and adaptations of the strains to the growth environment.

  5. Detection and phylogenetic analyses of spike genes in porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strains circulating in China in 2016-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiaoling; Liu, Xinsheng; Fang, Yuzhen; Zhou, Peng; Wang, Yonglu; Zhang, Yongguang

    2017-10-10

    Large-scale outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) have re-emerged in China in recent years. However, little is known about the genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of field strains of PED virus (PEDV) in China in 2016-2017. To address this issue, in this study, 116 diarrhea samples were collected from pig farms in 6 Chinese provinces in 2016-2017 and were detected using PCR for main porcine enteric pathogens, including PEDV, porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV), porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and porcine kobuvirus (PKV). In addition, the complete S genes from 11 representative PEDV strains were sequenced and analyzed. PCR detection showed that 52.6% (61/116) of these samples were positive for PEDV. Furthermore, sequencing results for the spike (S) genes from 11 of the epidemic PEDV strains showed 93-94% nucleotide identity and 92-93% amino acid identity with the classical CV777 strain. Compared with the CV777 vaccine strain, these strains had an insertion (A 133 ), a deletion (G 155 ), and a continuous 4-amino-acid insertion ( 56 NNTN 59 ) in the S1 region. Phylogenetic analysis based on the S gene indicated that the 11 assessed PEDV strains were genetically diverse and clustered into the G2 group. These results demonstrate that the epidemic strains of PEDV in China in 2016-2017 are mainly virulent strains that belong to the G2 group and genetically differ from the vaccine strain. Importantly, this is the first report that the samples collected in Hainan Province were positive for PEDV (59.2%, 25/42). To our knowledge, this article presents the first report of a virulent PEDV strain isolated from Hainan Island, China. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of the epidemiology and genetic characteristics of PEDV in China.

  6. The structural proteins of epidemic and historical strains of Zika virus differ in their ability to initiate viral infection in human host cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Sandra; Viranaicken, Wildriss; Turpin, Jonathan; El-Kalamouni, Chaker; Roche, Marjolaine; Krejbich-Trotot, Pascale; Desprès, Philippe; Gadea, Gilles

    2018-03-01

    Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) recently emerged in South Pacific islands and Americas where large epidemics were documented. In the present study, we investigated the contribution of the structural proteins C, prM and E in the permissiveness of human host cells to epidemic strains of ZIKV. To this end, we evaluated the capacity of the epidemic strain BeH819015 to infect epithelial A549 and neuronal SH-SY5Y cells in comparison to the African historical MR766 strain. For that purpose, we generated a molecular clone of BeH819015 and a chimeric clone of MR766 which contains the BeH819015 structural protein region. We showed that ZIKV containing BeH819015 structural proteins was much less efficient in cell-attachment leading to a reduced susceptibility of A549 and SH-SY5Y cells to viral infection. Our data illustrate a previously underrated role for C, prM, and E in ZIKV epidemic strain ability to initiate viral infection in human host cells. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Whole-genome pyrosequencing of an epidemic multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii strain belonging to the European clone II group

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iacono, M.; Villa, L.; Fortini, D.

    2008-01-01

    The whole-genome sequence of an epidemic, multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii strain (strain ACICU) belonging to the European clone II group and carrying the plasmid-mediated bla(OXA-58) carbapenem resistance gene was determined. The A. baumannii ACICU genome was compared with the genomes...

  8. Molecular Analyses of Vibrio cholerae O1 Clinical Strains, Including New Nontoxigenic Variants Isolated in Mexico during the Cholera Epidemic Years between 1991 and 2000

    OpenAIRE

    Lizárraga-Partida, Leonardo; Quilici, Marie-Laure

    2009-01-01

    International audience; We studied the evolution of Vibrio cholerae O1 during the 1991 to 2000 cholera epidemic in Mexico by biochemical, serological, and molecular characterization of strains collected during this period. Strains were divided into toxigenic and nontoxigenic groups according to the presence or absence of genes encoding cholera toxin. As previously reported, we characterized two populations among toxigenic strains, which were present from the first year of the epidemic. BglI r...

  9. Cell culture isolation and sequence analysis of genetically diverse US porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strains including a novel strain with a large deletion in the spike gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oka, Tomoichiro; Saif, Linda J; Marthaler, Douglas; Esseili, Malak A; Meulia, Tea; Lin, Chun-Ming; Vlasova, Anastasia N; Jung, Kwonil; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Qiuhong

    2014-10-10

    The highly contagious and deadly porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) first appeared in the US in April 2013. Since then the virus has spread rapidly nationwide and to Canada and Mexico causing high mortality among nursing piglets and significant economic losses. Currently there are no efficacious preventive measures or therapeutic tools to control PEDV in the US. The isolation of PEDV in cell culture is the first step toward the development of an attenuated vaccine, to study the biology of PEDV and to develop in vitro PEDV immunoassays, inactivation assays and screen for PEDV antivirals. In this study, nine of 88 US PEDV strains were isolated successfully on Vero cells with supplemental trypsin and subjected to genomic sequence analysis. They differed genetically mainly in the N-terminal S protein region as follows: (1) strains (n=7) similar to the highly virulent US PEDV strains; (2) one similar to the reportedly US S INDEL PEDV strain; and (3) one novel strain most closely related to highly virulent US PEDV strains, but with a large (197aa) deletion in the S protein. Representative strains of these three genetic groups were passaged serially and grew to titers of ∼5-6log10 plaque forming units/mL. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the isolation in cell culture of an S INDEL PEDV strain and a PEDV strain with a large (197aa) deletion in the S protein. We also designed primer sets to detect these genetically diverse US PEDV strains. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis caused by adenovirus in medical residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Carlos Pantoja; Florentino, Margarita Matias; Martinez, Irma Lopez; Lopez, Herlinda Mejia

    2009-01-01

    The present work documents an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among ophthalmology residents, its influence in the presentation of the community cases, the use of molecular techniques for its diagnosis, and the implementation of successful control measures for its containment. Isolation of the etiologic agent was achieved using cultured African green monkey kidney epithelial cells (VERO). Through molecular tests, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA sequencing, the genotype of the isolated virus was identified. The sequences obtained were aligned with data reported in the NCBI GenBank. A scheme of outbreak control measures was designed to enforce correct sanitary measures in the clinic. The statistical program, Epi info 2002, and openepi were used to determine the attack rate. The Excel Microsoft program was used to elaborate the endemic channel. Nine of the ten samples studied were isolated from the culture and identified by Adenovirus-specifc PCR. Sequencing allowed identification of Ad8 as the agent responsible for the outbreak. The attack rate was 24.39 cases per 100. The epidemic curve allowed identification of a disseminated source in the Institute of Ophthalmology "Conde de Valenciana." It was not possible to calculate the incubation periods among the cases. The endemic channel showed the presence of an epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among the patients that had been cared for at the out-patient services of the institute. One outbreak of a disseminated source caused by Ad8 was detected in the institute among its medical residents, probably associated with relaxation of the habitual sanitary measures during an epidemic of hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among the patients cared for at the institute. The proposed scheme to control the outbreak allowed for its containment and controlled the epidemic of associated cases.

  11. Complete Genome Sequences of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Strains JSLS-1/2015 and JS-2/2015 Isolated from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Jie; Li, Benqiang; Zhang, Chunling; Liu, Huili

    2016-11-10

    Two porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) strains, JSLS-1/2015 and JS-2/2015, were isolated from piglets with watery diarrhea in South China. Two genomic sequences were highly homologous to the attenuated DR13 strain. Furthermore, JSLS-1/2015 contains a 24-amino-acid deletion in open reading frame 1b, which was first reported in PEDV isolates. Copyright © 2016 Tao et al.

  12. Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garza, D.R.; Thompson, C.C.; Loureiro, E.C.; Dutilh, B.E.; Inada, D.T.; Junior, E.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Nunes, M.R.; Lima, C.P. de; Silvestre, R.V.; Nunes, K.N.; Santos, E.C.; Edwards, R.A.; Vicente, A.C.; Sa Morais, L.L. de

    2012-01-01

    The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic

  13. Diphtheria in the Republic of Georgia: Use of Molecular Typing Techniques for Characterization of Corynebacterium diphtheriae Strains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulakvelidze, Alexander; Kekelidze, Merab; Gomelauri, Tsaro; Deng, Yingkang; Khetsuriani, Nino; Kobaidze, Ketino; De Zoysa, Aruni; Efstratiou, Androulla; Morris, J. Glenn; Imnadze, Paata

    1999-01-01

    Sixty-six Corynebacterium diphtheriae strains (62 of the gravis biotype and 4 of the mitis biotype) isolated during the Georgian diphtheria epidemic of 1993 to 1998 and 13 non-Georgian C. diphtheriae strains (10 Russian and 3 reference isolates) were characterized by (i) biotyping, (ii) toxigenicity testing with the Elek assay and PCR, (iii) the randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique, and (iv) pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Fifteen selected strains were ribotyped. Six RAPD types and 15 PFGE patterns were identified among all strains examined, and 12 ribotypes were found among the 15 strains that were ribotyped. The Georgian epidemic apparently was caused by one major clonal group of C. diphtheriae (PFGE type A, ribotype R1), which was identical to the predominant epidemic strain(s) isolated during the concurrent diphtheria epidemic in Russia. A dendrogram based on the PFGE patterns revealed profound differences between the minor (nonpredominant) epidemic strains found in Georgia and Russia. The methodologies for RAPD typing, ribotyping, and PFGE typing of C. diphtheriae strains were improved to enable rapid and convenient molecular typing of the strains. The RAPD technique was adequate for biotype differentiation; however, PFGE and ribotyping were better (and equal to each other) at discriminating between epidemiologically related and unrelated isolates. PMID:10488190

  14. Pathogenesis comparison between the United States porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains in conventional neonatal piglets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qi; Gauger, Phillip C; Stafne, Molly R; Thomas, Joseph T; Madson, Darin M; Huang, Haiyan; Zheng, Ying; Li, Ganwu; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2016-05-01

    At least two genetically different porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) strains have been identified in the USA: US PEDV prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains. The objective of this study was to compare the pathogenicity differences of the US PEDV prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains in conventional neonatal piglets under experimental infections. Fifty PEDV-negative 5-day-old pigs were divided into five groups of ten pigs each and were inoculated orogastrically with three US PEDV prototype isolates (IN19338/2013, NC35140/2013 and NC49469/2013), an S-INDEL-variant isolate (IL20697/2014), and virus-negative culture medium, respectively, with virus titres of 104 TCID50 ml- 1, 10 ml per pig. All three PEDV prototype isolates tested in this study, regardless of their phylogenetic clades, had similar pathogenicity and caused severe enteric disease in 5-day-old pigs as evidenced by clinical signs, faecal virus shedding, and gross and histopathological lesions. Compared with pigs inoculated with the three US PEDV prototype isolates, pigs inoculated with the S-INDEL-variant isolate had significantly diminished clinical signs, virus shedding in faeces, gross lesions in small intestines, caeca and colons, histopathological lesions in small intestines, and immunohistochemistry staining in ileum. However, the US PEDV prototype and the S-INDEL-variant strains induced similar viraemia levels in inoculated pigs. Whole genome sequences of the PEDV prototype and S-INDEL-variant strains were determined, but the molecular basis of virulence differences between these PEDV strains remains to be elucidated using a reverse genetics approach.

  15. Experimental Infection of Young Pigs with an Early European Strain of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea Virus and a Recent US Strain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Louise; Krog, Jesper Schak; Strandbygaard, Bertel

    2017-01-01

    Outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED) were reported across Europe during the 1980s and 1990s, but only sporadic outbreaks occurred in recent years. PED virus (PEDV) spread for the first time into the USA in 2013 and has caused severe economic losses. Retrospectively, it was found that two...

  16. Phylogenetic and evolutionary history of influenza B viruses, which caused a large epidemic in 2011-2012, Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Rong Yang

    Full Text Available The annual recurrence of the influenza epidemic is considered to be primarily associated with immune escape due to changes to the virus. In 2011-2012, the influenza B epidemic in Taiwan was unusually large, and influenza B was predominant for a long time. To investigate the genetic dynamics of influenza B viruses during the 2011-2012 epidemic, we analyzed the sequences of 4,386 influenza B viruses collected in Taiwan from 2004 to 2012. The data provided detailed insight into the flux patterns of multiple genotypes. We found that a re-emergent TW08-I virus, which was the major genotype and had co-circulated with the two others, TW08-II and TW08-III, from 2007 to 2009 in Taiwan, successively overtook TW08-II in March and then underwent a lineage switch in July 2011. This lineage switch was followed by the large epidemic in Taiwan. The whole-genome compositions and phylogenetic relationships of the representative viruses of various genotypes were compared to determine the viral evolutionary histories. We demonstrated that the large influenza B epidemic of 2011-2012 was caused by Yamagata lineage TW08-I viruses that were derived from TW04-II viruses in 2004-2005 through genetic drifts without detectable reassortments. The TW08-I viruses isolated in both 2011-2012 and 2007-2009 were antigenically similar, indicating that an influenza B virus have persisted for 5 years in antigenic stasis before causing a large epidemic. The results suggest that in addition to the emergence of new variants with mutations or reassortments, other factors, including the interference of multi-types or lineages of influenza viruses and the accumulation of susceptible hosts, can also affect the scale and time of an influenza B epidemic.

  17. Deciphering the Origin of the 2012 Cholera Epidemic in Guinea by Integrating Epidemiological and Molecular Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebaudet, Stanislas; Mengel, Martin A.; Koivogui, Lamine; Moore, Sandra; Mutreja, Ankur; Kande, Yacouba; Yattara, Ousmane; Sarr Keita, Véronique; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Fournier, Pierre-Edouard; Garnotel, Eric; Keita, Sakoba; Piarroux, Renaud

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an “atypical” El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control

  18. Abortive phage-infection and UV-protection markers on ColI plasmids from epidemic strains of Salmonella

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, R.M.

    1988-01-01

    Cultures of Escherichia coli carrying ColI plasmids received in conjugation from strains of Salmonella typhimurium and S. agona were examined for abortive infection (Abi) of phage BF23 and for enhanced resistance to the lethal action of UV-irradiation (Uvr). The Abi character of stored cultures of E. coli was also compared with the reaction of the same stock culture tested 5 years before. Seven of the eight potential types differentiated by three characters were represented among 160 ColI plasmids: ColIa Abi + Uvr + (3 plasmids), ColIa Abi - Uvr + (1), ColIa Abi - Uvr-> (2), ColIb Abi + Uvr + (85), ColIb Abi + Uvr - (5), ColIb Abi - Uvr + (4), ColIb Abi-? Uvr - (60). Recognition that different plasmid types could be carried by strains of a clone proved useful in the interpretation of the epidemic spread of strains of S. typhimurium of phage type/biotype 141/9f in Scotland and in tracing the ancestry of a recently emerged rhamnose non-fermenting mutant strain of S. agona. (author)

  19. Whole-Genome Characterization of Epidemic Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C and Resurgence of Serogroup W, Niger, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretz, Cecilia B.; Retchless, Adam C.; Sidikou, Fati; Issaka, Bassira; Ousmane, Sani; Schwartz, Stephanie; Tate, Ashley H.; Pana, Assimawè; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Nzeyimana, Innocent; Nse, Ricardo Obama; Deghmane, Ala-Eddine; Hong, Eva; Brynildsrud, Ola Brønstad; Novak, Ryan T.; Meyer, Sarah A.; Oukem-Boyer, Odile Ouwe Missi; Ronveaux, Olivier; Caugant, Dominique A.; Taha, Muhamed-Kheir

    2016-01-01

    In 2015, Niger reported the largest epidemic of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. The NmC epidemic coincided with serogroup W (NmW) cases during the epidemic season, resulting in a total of 9,367 meningococcal cases through June 2015. To clarify the phylogenetic association, genetic evolution, and antibiotic determinants of the meningococcal strains in Niger, we sequenced the genomes of 102 isolates from this epidemic, comprising 81 NmC and 21 NmW isolates. The genomes of 82 isolates were completed, and all 102 were included in the analysis. All NmC isolates had sequence type 10217, which caused the outbreaks in Nigeria during 2013–2014 and for which a clonal complex has not yet been defined. The NmC isolates from Niger were substantially different from other NmC isolates collected globally. All NmW isolates belonged to clonal complex 11 and were closely related to the isolates causing recent outbreaks in Africa. PMID:27649262

  20. Molecular analyses of Vibrio cholerae O1 clinical strains, including new nontoxigenic variants isolated in Mexico during the Cholera epidemic years between 1991 and 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizárraga-Partida, Marcial Leonardo; Quilici, Marie-Laure

    2009-05-01

    We studied the evolution of Vibrio cholerae O1 during the 1991 to 2000 cholera epidemic in Mexico by biochemical, serological, and molecular characterization of strains collected during this period. Strains were divided into toxigenic and nontoxigenic groups according to the presence or absence of genes encoding cholera toxin. As previously reported, we characterized two populations among toxigenic strains, which were present from the first year of the epidemic. BglI rRNA analysis revealed that these strains had ribotype profiles, denoted M5 and M6 in our study, that were identical to those previously designated Koblavi B5 or Popovic 5 and Popovic 6a or Tamayo B21a, respectively. Ribotype M5 was isolated between 1991 and 1993. This ribotype had a low level of genetic variation as detected by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Ribotype M6 persisted from 1991 to 2000. However, PFGE profiles suggested that two epidemiologically unrelated strains coexisted within this single ribotype from 1995 until the end of the epidemic. We identified three new BglI ribotypes, Mx1, Mx2, and Mx3, from nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated between 1998 and 2000; one of them grouped strains positive for the toxin-coregulated pilus island. They differed from nontoxigenic clones isolated in Latin America and on the U.S. Gulf Coast and are probably autochthonous Mexican V. cholerae O1 variants. Most of these new variants were isolated from states surrounding the Gulf of Mexico, where the highest incidence of cholera in the country was recorded. Thus, the Mexican Gulf Coast, like the U.S. Gulf Coast, may act as an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae O1.

  1. Molecular Analyses of Vibrio cholerae O1 Clinical Strains, Including New Nontoxigenic Variants Isolated in Mexico during the Cholera Epidemic Years between 1991 and 2000▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizárraga-Partida, Marcial Leonardo; Quilici, Marie-Laure

    2009-01-01

    We studied the evolution of Vibrio cholerae O1 during the 1991 to 2000 cholera epidemic in Mexico by biochemical, serological, and molecular characterization of strains collected during this period. Strains were divided into toxigenic and nontoxigenic groups according to the presence or absence of genes encoding cholera toxin. As previously reported, we characterized two populations among toxigenic strains, which were present from the first year of the epidemic. BglI rRNA analysis revealed that these strains had ribotype profiles, denoted M5 and M6 in our study, that were identical to those previously designated Koblavi B5 or Popovic 5 and Popovic 6a or Tamayo B21a, respectively. Ribotype M5 was isolated between 1991 and 1993. This ribotype had a low level of genetic variation as detected by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Ribotype M6 persisted from 1991 to 2000. However, PFGE profiles suggested that two epidemiologically unrelated strains coexisted within this single ribotype from 1995 until the end of the epidemic. We identified three new BglI ribotypes, Mx1, Mx2, and Mx3, from nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated between 1998 and 2000; one of them grouped strains positive for the toxin-coregulated pilus island. They differed from nontoxigenic clones isolated in Latin America and on the U.S. Gulf Coast and are probably autochthonous Mexican V. cholerae O1 variants. Most of these new variants were isolated from states surrounding the Gulf of Mexico, where the highest incidence of cholera in the country was recorded. Thus, the Mexican Gulf Coast, like the U.S. Gulf Coast, may act as an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae O1. PMID:19213700

  2. Genome Structural Diversity among 31 Bordetella pertussis Isolates from Two Recent U.S. Whooping Cough Statewide Epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, Katherine E; Weigand, Michael R; Peng, Yanhui; Cassiday, Pamela K; Sammons, Scott; Knipe, Kristen; Rowe, Lori A; Loparev, Vladimir; Sheth, Mili; Weening, Keeley; Tondella, M Lucia; Williams, Margaret M

    2016-01-01

    During 2010 and 2012, California and Vermont, respectively, experienced statewide epidemics of pertussis with differences seen in the demographic affected, case clinical presentation, and molecular epidemiology of the circulating strains. To overcome limitations of the current molecular typing methods for pertussis, we utilized whole-genome sequencing to gain a broader understanding of how current circulating strains are causing large epidemics. Through the use of combined next-generation sequencing technologies, this study compared de novo, single-contig genome assemblies from 31 out of 33 Bordetella pertussis isolates collected during two separate pertussis statewide epidemics and 2 resequenced vaccine strains. Final genome architecture assemblies were verified with whole-genome optical mapping. Sixteen distinct genome rearrangement profiles were observed in epidemic isolate genomes, all of which were distinct from the genome structures of the two resequenced vaccine strains. These rearrangements appear to be mediated by repetitive sequence elements, such as high-copy-number mobile genetic elements and rRNA operons. Additionally, novel and previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms were detected in 10 virulence-related genes in the epidemic isolates. Whole-genome variation analysis identified state-specific variants, and coding regions bearing nonsynonymous mutations were classified into functional annotated orthologous groups. Comprehensive studies on whole genomes are needed to understand the resurgence of pertussis and develop novel tools to better characterize the molecular epidemiology of evolving B. pertussis populations. IMPORTANCE Pertussis, or whooping cough, is the most poorly controlled vaccine-preventable bacterial disease in the United States, which has experienced a resurgence for more than a decade. Once viewed as a monomorphic pathogen, B. pertussis strains circulating during epidemics exhibit diversity visible on a genome structural

  3. Diagnostic evaluation of assays for detection of antibodies against porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in pigs exposed to different PEDV strains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerber, Priscilla F.; Lelli, Davide; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2016-01-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused economic losses in the Americas, Asia and Europe in recent years. Reliable serological assays are essential for epidemiological studies and vaccine evaluation. The objective of this study was to compare the ability of five enzyme-linked immunosorb......Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused economic losses in the Americas, Asia and Europe in recent years. Reliable serological assays are essential for epidemiological studies and vaccine evaluation. The objective of this study was to compare the ability of five enzyme...

  4. Cause and effect in childhood obesity: solutions for a national epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieting, J Michael

    2008-10-01

    Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions in the United States. As a result, children are at increased risk for myriad preventable acute and chronic medical problems--many of which are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. In addition, childhood obesity has serious psychosocial consequences, such as low self-esteem, lower quality of life, and depression. The multifaceted causes and solutions to this pervasive health issue are discussed in the present review, as are pertinent health policy issues. Osteopathic physicians and other healthcare providers can play an important role in patient and family education, direct care, and advocacy.

  5. First dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemic in the Americas, 1981: insights into the causative agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Roche, Rosmari; Hinojosa, Yoandri; Guzman, Maria G

    2014-12-01

    Historical records describe a disease in North America that clinically resembled dengue haemorrhagic fever during the latter part of the slave-trading period. However, the dengue epidemic that occurred in Cuba in 1981 was the first laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed outbreak of dengue haemorrhagic fever in the Americas. At that time, the presumed source of the dengue type 2 strain isolated during this epidemic was considered controversial, partly because of the limited sequence data and partly because the origin of the virus appeared to be southern Asia. Here, we present a molecular characterisation at the whole-genome level of the original strains isolated at different time points during the epidemic. Phylogenetic trees constructed using Bayesian methods indicated that 1981 Cuban strains group within the Asian 2 genotype. In addition, the study revealed that viral evolution occurred during the epidemic - a fact that could be related to the increasing severity from month to month. Moreover, the Cuban strains exhibited particular amino acid substitutions that differentiate them from the New Guinea C prototype strain as well as from dengue type 2 strains isolated globally.

  6. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  7. Tropheryma whipplei as a Cause of Epidemic Fever, Senegal, 2010-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassene, Hubert; Mediannikov, Oleg; Socolovschi, Cristina; Ratmanov, Pavel; Keita, Alpha K; Sokhna, Cheikh; Raoult, Didier; Fenollar, Florence

    2016-07-01

    The bacterium Tropheryma whipplei, which causes Whipple disease in humans, is commonly detected in the feces of persons in Africa. It is also associated with acute infections. We investigated the role of T. whipplei in febrile patients from 2 rural villages in Senegal. During June 2010-March 2012, we collected whole-blood finger-prick samples from 786 febrile and 385 healthy villagers. T. whipplei was detected in blood specimens from 36 (4.6%) of the 786 febrile patients and in 1 (0.25%) of the 385 apparently healthy persons. Of the 37 T. whipplei cases, 26 (70.2%) were detected in August 2010. Familial cases and a potential new genotype were observed. The patients' symptoms were mainly headache (68.9%) and cough (36.1%). Our findings suggest that T. whipplei is a cause of epidemic fever in Senegal.

  8. Distribution of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B genes in epidemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains isolated from East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kong H

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Haishen Kong,1,2 Lingmei Fang,3 Rujin Jiang,4 Jixiang Tong2 1State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 2Key Laboratory of Clinical In Vitro Diagnostic Techniques of Zhejiang Province, Department of Laboratory Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; 3Clinical Laboratory, Chunan First People’s Hospital, Zhejiang Province People’s Hospital Chunan Branch, Hangzhou, China; 4Clinical Laboratory, Yuhang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hangzhou, China Background: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA is a major nosocomial pathogen. Various virulence and antiseptic-resistant factors increase the pathogenicity of MRSA strains and allow for increased infection rates.Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and distribution of virulence-associated and antiseptic-resistant genes from epidemic MRSA strains isolated from East China.Methods: A newly designed multiplex PCR assay was used to assess whether the virulence-associated genes sasX and pvl and the chlorhexidine tolerance gene qacA/B were present in 189 clinical isolates of MRSA. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST and Staphylococcal protein A (spa typing of these isolates were also performed. The frequency of these genes in isolates with epidemic sequence types (STs was investigated. Results: Twenty STs and 36 spa types with five epidemic clones (ST5-t311, ST59-t437, ST5-t002, ST239-t030, and ST239-t037 were identified. The prevalence of sasX, pvl, and qacA/B in all isolates was 5.8%, 10.1%, and 20.1%, respectively. The prevalences of these genes in isolates with ST5, ST59, ST239, and other ST genetic backgrounds were all significantly different (P<0.001. Isolates that had the highest frequency of sas

  9. Identification of resistance and virulence factors in an epidemic Enterobacter hormaechei outbreak strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paauw, A.; Caspers, M.P.M.; Leverstein-van Hall, M.A.; Schuren, F.H.J.; Montijn, R.C.; Verhoef, J.; Fluit, A.C.

    2009-01-01

    Bacterial strains differ in their ability to cause hospital outbreaks. Using comparative genomic hybridization, Enterobacter cloacae complex isolates were studied to identify genetic markers specific for Enterobacter cloacae complex outbreak strains. No outbreak-specific genes were found that were

  10. [Recurrent epidemics of gastroenteritis caused by norovirus GI.3 in a small hotel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soini, Jani; Hemminki, Kaisa; Pirnes, Aija; Roivainen, Merja; Al-Hello, Haider; Maunula, Leena; Kauppinen, Ari; Miettinen, Likka; Smit, Pieter W; Huusko, Sari; Toikkanen, Salla; Rimhanen-Finne, Ruska

    2016-01-01

    Recurrent cases of gastroenteritis occurred in a small hotel. The causative agent of disease could not be detected. The cause and the source of the disease were established through epidemiological investigations and laboratory diagnosis. The causative agent of the disease was norovirus GI.3. Norovirus GI was detected in the water from the well and on surfaces at the hotel. Both epidemiological investigations and laboratory diagnostics are needed in resolving epidemics. Continuous development of laboratory methods is important.

  11. The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma S. McBryde

    2017-03-01

    Results and conclusions: The ability of MDR-TB to dominate DS-TB was highly sensitive to the relative transmissibility of the resistant strain; however, MDR-TB could dominate even when its transmissibility was modestly reduced (to between 50% and 100% as transmissible as the DS-TB strain. This model suggests that it may take decades or more for strain replacement to occur. It was also found that while the amplification of resistance is the early cause of MDR-TB, this will rapidly give way to person-to-person transmission.

  12. Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason D Bishai

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

  13. Evidence of molecular evolution driven by recombination events influencing tropism in a novel human adenovirus that causes epidemic keratoconjunctivitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael P Walsh

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available In 2005, a human adenovirus strain (formerly known as HAdV-D22/H8 but renamed here HAdV-D53 was isolated from an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctititis (EKC, a disease that is usually caused by HAdV-D8, -D19, or -D37, not HAdV-D22. To date, a complete change of tropism compared to the prototype has never been observed, although apparent recombinant strains of other viruses from species Human adenovirus D (HAdV-D have been described. The complete genome of HAdV-D53 was sequenced to elucidate recombination events that lead to the emergence of a viable and highly virulent virus with a modified tropism. Bioinformatic and phylogenetic analyses of this genome demonstrate that this adenovirus is a recombinant of HAdV-D8 (including the fiber gene encoding the primary cellular receptor binding site, HAdV-D22, (the epsilon determinant of the hexon gene, HAdV-D37 (including the penton base gene encoding the secondary cellular receptor binding site, and at least one unknown or unsequenced HAdV-D strain. Bootscanning analysis of the complete genomic sequence of this novel adenovirus, which we have re-named HAdV-D53, indicated at least five recombination events between the aforementioned adenoviruses. Intrahexon recombination sites perfectly framed the epsilon neutralization determinant that was almost identical to the HAdV-D22 prototype. Additional bootscan analysis of all HAdV-D hexon genes revealed recombinations in identical locations in several other adenoviruses. In addition, HAdV-D53 but not HAdV-D22 induced corneal inflammation in a mouse model. Serological analysis confirmed previous results and demonstrated that HAdV-D53 has a neutralization profile representative of the epsilon determinant of its hexon (HAdV-D22 and the fiber (HAdV-D8 proteins. Our recombinant hexon sequence is almost identical to the hexon sequences of the HAdV-D strain causing EKC outbreaks in Japan, suggesting that HAdV-D53 is pandemic as an emerging EKC agent. This documents

  14. Meningococcal factor H binding proteins in epidemic strains from Africa: implications for vaccine development.

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    Rolando Pajon

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Factor H binding protein (fHbp is an important antigen for vaccines against meningococcal serogroup B disease. The protein binds human factor H (fH, which enables the bacteria to resist serum bactericidal activity. Little is known about the vaccine-potential of fHbp for control of meningococcal epidemics in Africa, which typically are caused by non-group B strains.We investigated genes encoding fHbp in 106 serogroup A, W-135 and X case isolates from 17 African countries. We determined complement-mediated bactericidal activity of antisera from mice immunized with recombinant fHbp vaccines, or a prototype native outer membrane vesicle (NOMV vaccine from a serogroup B mutant strain with over-expressed fHbp. Eighty-six of the isolates (81% had one of four prevalent fHbp sequence variants, ID 4/5 (serogroup A isolates, 9 (W-135, or 74 (X in variant group 1, or ID 22/23 (W-135 in variant group 2. More than one-third of serogroup A isolates and two-thirds of W-135 isolates tested had low fHbp expression while all X isolates tested had intermediate or high expression. Antisera to the recombinant fHbp vaccines were generally bactericidal only against isolates with fHbp sequence variants that closely matched the respective vaccine ID. Low fHbp expression also contributed to resistance to anti-fHbp bactericidal activity. In contrast to the recombinant vaccines, the NOMV fHbp ID 1 vaccine elicited broad anti-fHbp bactericidal activity, and the antibodies had greater ability to inhibit binding of fH to fHbp than antibodies elicited by the control recombinant fHbp ID 1 vaccine.NOMV vaccines from mutants with increased fHbp expression elicit an antibody repertoire with greater bactericidal activity than recombinant fHbp vaccines. NOMV vaccines are promising for prevention of meningococcal disease in Africa and could be used to supplement coverage conferred by a serogroup A polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine recently introduced in some sub

  15. Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delatorre, Edson; Bello, Gonzalo

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B(CU-I) and B(CU-II)), east Africa (clade C(CU-I)) and central Africa (clades G(CU), CRF18(CU) and CRF19(CU)), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985-1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

  16. Did the Food Environment Cause the Obesity Epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Kevin D

    2018-01-01

    Several putative explanations of the obesity epidemic relate to the changing food environment. Individual dietary macronutrients have each been theorized to be the prime culprit for population obesity, but these explanations are unlikely. Rather, obesity probably resulted from changes in the caloric quantity and quality of the food supply in concert with an industrialized food system that produced and marketed convenient, highly processed foods from cheap agricultural inputs. Such foods often contain high amounts of salt, sugar, fat, and flavor additives and are engineered to have supernormal appetitive properties driving increased consumption. Ubiquitous access to convenient and inexpensive food also changed normative eating behavior, with more people snacking, eating in restaurants, and spending less time preparing meals at home. While such changes in the food environment provide a likely explanation of the obesity epidemic, definitive scientific demonstration is hindered by the difficulty in experimentally isolating and manipulating important variables at the population level. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  17. The decline of the impetigo epidemic caused by the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone: an 11.5-year population-based incidence study from a community in Western Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rørtveit, Sverre; Skutlaberg, Dag Harald; Langeland, Nina; Rortveit, Guri

    2014-12-01

    From around the year 2000, Northern Europe experienced a rise in impetigo caused by Staphylococcus aureus resistant to fusidic acid. A single clone of S. aureus was found to be the bacterial pathogen involved in the impetigo outbreak in Norway, Sweden, the UK and Ireland, termed 'the epidemic European fusidic acid-resistant impetigo clone' (EEFIC). We have followed the incidence of impetigo during the years 2001-2012 based on all patients in general practice in the island community of Austevoll, Western Norway. We previously reported a marked decline of impetigo incidence in Austevoll, from 0.0260 cases per person-year in 2002 to 0.0038 in 2009. This article explores indications of an end to the impetigo epidemic caused by the EEFIC clone. All four general practitioners (GPs) in the community (mean population = 4400) were asked to diagnose impetigo in a uniform way and to take bacterial specimens from all impetigo cases. Phenotypic characteristics of specimen bacteria were determined for the whole period and molecular analyses were performed on isolates in the period 2008-2012. We observed a further decline in incidence of impetigo in Austevoll in the study period. The proportion of fusidic acid-resistant S. aureus isolates decreased during the period 2002-2012, with a mean of 80% in the epidemic years of 2002-2004, 55% in 2005-2009, and 6% in 2010-2012. In total, 44 S. aureus isolates from impetigo were subject to molecular analyses in the period 2008-2012, and 11 were found to be related to the EEFIC. All EEFIC isolates were found in 2008-2009, with no new isolates in 2010-2012. There is an apparent end to the impetigo epidemic related to the EEFIC in this population in Western Norway.

  18. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  19. Differential infection properties of three inducible prophages from an epidemic strain of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Chloe E

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the most common bacterial pathogen infecting the lungs of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF. The Liverpool Epidemic Strain (LES is transmissible, capable of superseding other P. aeruginosa populations and is associated with increased morbidity. Previously, multiple inducible prophages have been found to coexist in the LES chromosome and to constitute a major component of the accessory genome not found in other sequenced P. aerugionosa strains. LES phages confer a competitive advantage in a rat model of chronic lung infection and may, therefore underpin LES prevalence. Here the infective properties of three LES phages were characterised. Results This study focuses on three of the five active prophages (LESφ2, LESφ3 and LESφ4 that are members of the Siphoviridae. All were induced from LESB58 by norfloxacin. Lytic production of LESφ2 was considerably higher than that of LESφ3 and LESφ4. Each phage was capable of both lytic and lysogenic infection of the susceptible P. aeruginosa host, PAO1, producing phage-specific plaque morphologies. In the PAO1 host background, the LESφ2 prophage conferred immunity against LESφ3 infection and reduced susceptibility to LESφ4 infection. Each prophage was less stable in the PAO1 chromosome with substantially higher rates of spontaneous phage production than when residing in the native LESB58 host. We show that LES phages are capable of horizontal gene transfer by infecting P. aeruginosa strains from different sources and that type IV pili are required for infection by all three phages. Conclusions Multiple inducible prophages with diverse infection properties have been maintained in the LES genome. Our data suggest that LESφ2 is more sensitive to induction into the lytic cycle or has a more efficient replicative cycle than the other LES phages.

  20. Genomic characterization of a large outbreak of Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 strains in Quebec City, 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Lévesque

    Full Text Available During the summer of 2012, a major Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 outbreak occurred in Quebec City, Canada, which caused 182 declared cases of Legionnaire's disease and included 13 fatalities. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 isolates from 23 patients as well as from 32 cooling towers located in the vicinity of the outbreak were recovered for analysis. In addition, 6 isolates from the 1996 Quebec City outbreak and 4 isolates from patients unrelated to both outbreaks were added to allow comparison. We characterized the isolates using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, sequence-based typing, and whole genome sequencing. The comparison of patients-isolated strains to cooling tower isolates allowed the identification of the tower that was the source of the outbreak. Legionella pneumophila strain Quebec 2012 was identified as a ST-62 by sequence-based typing methodology. Two new Legionellaceae plasmids were found only in the epidemic strain. The LVH type IV secretion system was found in the 2012 outbreak isolates but not in the ones from the 1996 outbreak and only in half of the contemporary human isolates. The epidemic strains replicated more efficiently and were more cytotoxic to human macrophages than the environmental strains tested. At least four Icm/Dot effectors in the epidemic strains were absent in the environmental strains suggesting that some effectors could impact the intracellular replication in human macrophages. Sequence-based typing and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis combined with whole genome sequencing allowed the identification and the analysis of the causative strain including its likely environmental source.

  1. Emergence and control of epidemic meningococcal meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Idris; Iliyasu, Garba; Habib, Abdulrazaq Garba

    2017-02-01

    For more than a century, meningitis epidemics have regularly recurred across sub-Saharan Africa, involving 19 contiguous countries that constitute a 'meningitis belt' where historically the causative agent has been serogroup A meningococcus. Attempts to control epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa by vaccination with meningococcal polysaccharide (PS) vaccines have not been successful. This is largely because PS vaccines are poorly immunogenic in young children, do not induce immunological memory, and have little or no effect on the pharyngeal carriage. Meningococcal PS-protein conjugate vaccines overcome these deficiencies. Conjugate meningococcal vaccine against serotype A (MenAfriVac) was developed between 2001 and 2009 and deployed in 2010. So far, 262 million individuals have been immunized across the meningitis belt. The public health benefits of MenAfriVac have already been demonstrated by a sharp decline in reported cases of meningococcal disease in the countries where it has been introduced. However, serogroup replacement following mass meningitis vaccination has been noted, and in 2015 an epidemic with a novel strain of serogroup C was recorded in Niger and Nigeria for the first time since 1975. This has posed a serious challenge toward elimination of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African. For an effective control of meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt, there is a need for an effective surveillance system, provision of rapid antigen detection kits as well as affordable vaccine that provides protection against the main serogroups causing meningitis in the sub-region.

  2. Full-length genome sequences of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus strain CV777; Use of NGS to analyse genomic and sub-genomic RNAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Bruun; Boniotti, Maria Beatrice; Papetti, Alice

    2018-01-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus, strain CV777, was initially characterized in 1978 as the causative agent of a disease first identified in the UK in 1971. This coronavirus has been widely distributed among laboratories and has been passaged both within pigs and in cell culture. To determine...... the variability between different stocks of the PEDV strain CV777, sequencing of the full-length genome (ca. 28kb) has been performed in 6 different laboratories, using different protocols. Not surprisingly, each of the different full genome sequences were distinct from each other and from the reference sequence...... the analysis of sub-genomic mRNAs from infected cells. It is clearly important to know the features of the specific sample of CV777 being used for experimental studies....

  3. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  4. Epidemic Spread of Symbiotic and Non-Symbiotic Bradyrhizobium Genotypes Across California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollowell, A C; Regus, J U; Gano, K A; Bantay, R; Centeno, D; Pham, J; Lyu, J Y; Moore, D; Bernardo, A; Lopez, G; Patil, A; Patel, S; Lii, Y; Sachs, J L

    2016-04-01

    The patterns and drivers of bacterial strain dominance remain poorly understood in natural populations. Here, we cultured 1292 Bradyrhizobium isolates from symbiotic root nodules and the soil root interface of the host plant Acmispon strigosus across a >840-km transect in California. To investigate epidemiology and the potential role of accessory loci as epidemic drivers, isolates were genotyped at two chromosomal loci and were assayed for presence or absence of accessory "symbiosis island" loci that encode capacity to form nodules on hosts. We found that Bradyrhizobium populations were very diverse but dominated by few haplotypes-with a single "epidemic" haplotype constituting nearly 30 % of collected isolates and spreading nearly statewide. In many Bradyrhizobium lineages, we inferred presence and absence of the symbiosis island suggesting recurrent evolutionary gain and or loss of symbiotic capacity. We did not find statistical phylogenetic evidence that the symbiosis island acquisition promotes strain dominance and both symbiotic and non-symbiotic strains exhibited population dominance and spatial spread. Our dataset reveals that a strikingly few Bradyrhizobium genotypes can rapidly spread to dominate a landscape and suggests that these epidemics are not driven by the acquisition of accessory loci as occurs in key human pathogens.

  5. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  6. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  7. Lethal distemper in badgers (Meles meles) following epidemic in dogs and wolves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Sabatino, Daria; Di Francesco, Gabriella; Zaccaria, Guendalina; Malatesta, Daniela; Brugnola, Luca; Marcacci, Maurilia; Portanti, Ottavio; De Massis, Fabrizio; Savini, Giovanni; Teodori, Liana; Ruggieri, Enzo; Mangone, Iolanda; Badagliacca, Pietro; Lorusso, Alessio

    2016-12-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) represents an important conservation threat to many wild carnivores. A large distemper epidemic sustained by an Arctic-lineage strain occurred in Italy in 2013, mainly in the Abruzzi region, causing overt disease in domestic and shepherd dogs, Apennine wolves (Canis lupus) and other wild carnivores. Two badgers were collected by the end of September 2015 in a rural area of the Abruzzi region and were demonstrated to be CDV-positive by real time RT-PCR and IHC in several tissues. The genome of CDV isolates from badgers showed Y549H substitution in the mature H protein. By employing all publicly available Arctic-lineage H protein encoding gene sequences, six amino acid changes in recent Italian strains with respect to Italian strains of dogs from 2000 to 2008, were observed. A CDV strain belonging to the European-wildlife lineage was also identified in a fox found dead in the same region in 2016, proving co-circulation of an additional CDV lineage. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Yellow Rust Epidemics Worldwide Were Caused by Pathogen Races from Divergent Genetic Lineages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ali, Sajid; Rodriguez Algaba, Julian; Thach, Tine

    2017-01-01

    population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease...... that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia......; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent...

  9. Multiple reassorted viruses as cause of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerens, Nancy; Heutink, Rene; Bergervoet, Saskia A.; Harders, Frank; Bossers, Alex; Koch, Guus

    2017-01-01

    In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird

  10. Genetic structure of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C epidemic strains in South Brazil Estrutura genética de cepas epidêmicas de Neisseria meningitidis sorogrupo C do Sul do Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Tavares Sacchi

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present study we report the results of an analysis, based on serotyping, multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE, and ribotyping of N. meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated from patients with meningococcal disease (MD in Rio Grande do Sul (RS and Santa Catarina (SC States, Brazil, as the Center of Epidemiology Control of Ministry of Health detected an increasing of MD cases due to this serogroup in the last two years (1992-1993. We have demonstrated that the MD due to N.meningitidis serogroup C strains in RS and SC States occurring in the last 4 years were caused mainly by one clone of strains (ET 40, with isolates indistinguishable by serogroup, serotype, subtype and even by ribotyping. One small number of cases that were not due to an ET 40 strains, represent closely related clones that probably are new lineages generated from the ET 40 clone referred as ET 11A complex. We have also analyzed N.meningitidis serogroup C strains isolated in the greater São Paulo in 1976 as representative of the first post epidemic year in that region. The ribotyping method, as well as MEE, could provide useful information about the clonal characteristics of those isolates and also of strains isolated in south Brazil. The strains from 1976 have more similarity with the actual endemic than epidemic strains, by the ribotyping, sulfonamide sensitivity, and MEE results. In conclusion, serotyping with monoclonal antibodies (C:2b:P1.3, MEE (ET 11 and ET 11A complex, and ribotyping by using ClaI restriction enzyme (Rb2, were useful to characterize these epidemic strains of N.meningitidis related to the increased incidence of MD in different States of south Brazil. It is mostly probable that these N.meningitidis serogroup C strains have poor or no genetic corelation with 1971-1975 epidemic serogroup C strains. The genetic similarity of members of the ET 11 and ET 11A complex were confirmed by the ribotyping method by using three restriction endonucleases

  11. Plastic strain caused by contraction of pores in polycrystalline graphites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ioka, Ikuo; Yoda, Shinichi; Konishi, Takashi.

    1989-01-01

    The effects of porosity on mechanical properties and deformation behavior of four isotropic polycrystalline graphites were studied. The pore size distributions of the graphites were measured using a conventional mercury penetration technique. The average pore radius of ISO-88 graphite was about one-tenth of that of ISEM-1, IG-11 or IG-15 graphites. Young's modulus of the graphites decreased with increasing porosity. The stress-strain curve of each graphite was measured in its lateral and axial directions. Young's modulus of graphite decreased with increasing load. The plastic strain at a given compressive load was calculated from the stress-strain curve and the initial gradient of the unloading curve at the load. The ratio of lateral plastic strain to axial plastic strain for the graphites was less than 0.5, indicating that the volume of the graphites decreased during compressive loading. By assuming that the volume change was caused by contraction of pores, plastic strain associated with contraction of pores was calculated from the axial plastic strain and lateral plastic strain by slips along the basal planes. The plastic strain increased with increasing axial plastic strain and porosity of graphite. (author)

  12. Epidemic waves of cholera in the last two decades in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langa, José Paulo; Sema, Cynthia; De Deus, Nilsa; Colombo, Mauro Maria; Taviani, Elisa

    2015-07-04

    Africa is increasingly affected by cholera. In Mozambique, cholera appeared in the early 1970s when the seventh pandemic entered Africa from the Indian subcontinent. In the following decades, several epidemics were registered in the country, the 1997-1999 epidemic being the most extended. Since then, Mozambique has been considered an endemic area for cholera, characterized by yearly outbreaks occurring with a seasonal pattern. At least three pandemic variants are thought to have originated in the Indian subcontinent and spread worldwide at different times. To understand the epidemiology of cholera in Mozambique, whether the disease re-emerges periodically or is imported by different routes of transmission, we investigated clinical V. cholerae O1 isolated during 1997-1999 and 2012-2014 epidemics. By detecting and characterizing seven genetic elements, the mobilome profile of each isolate was obtained. By comparing it to known seventh pandemic reference strains, it was possible to discern among different V. cholerae O1 variants active in the country. During 1997-1999, epidemic strains showed two different genetic profiles, both related to a pandemic clone that originated from India and was reported in other African countries in the 1990s. Isolates from 2012-2014 outbreaks showed a genetic background related to the pandemic strains currently active as the prevalent causative agent of cholera worldwide. Despite cholera being endemic in Mozambique, the epidemiology of the disease in the past 20 years has been strongly influenced by the cholera seventh pandemic waves that originated in the Indian subcontinent.

  13. Yellow Rust Epidemics Worldwide Were Caused by Pathogen Races from Divergent Genetic Lineages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Sajid; Rodriguez-Algaba, Julian; Thach, Tine; Sørensen, Chris K.; Hansen, Jens G.; Lassen, Poul; Nazari, Kumarse; Hodson, David P.; Justesen, Annemarie F.; Hovmøller, Mogens S.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated whether the recent worldwide epidemics of wheat yellow rust were driven by races of few clonal lineage(s) or populations of divergent races. Race phenotyping of 887 genetically diverse Puccinia striiformis isolates sampled in 35 countries during 2009–2015 revealed that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent in Europe, corresponding to widely deployed resistance genes. The highest diversity was observed in South Asian populations, where frequent recombination has been reported, and no particular race was predominant in this area. The results are discussed in light of the role of invasions in shaping pathogen population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease vulnerability of host varieties prior to their deployment at larger scales. PMID:28676811

  14. Yellow Rust Epidemics Worldwide Were Caused by Pathogen Races from Divergent Genetic Lineages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajid Ali

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the recent worldwide epidemics of wheat yellow rust were driven by races of few clonal lineage(s or populations of divergent races. Race phenotyping of 887 genetically diverse Puccinia striiformis isolates sampled in 35 countries during 2009–2015 revealed that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent in Europe, corresponding to widely deployed resistance genes. The highest diversity was observed in South Asian populations, where frequent recombination has been reported, and no particular race was predominant in this area. The results are discussed in light of the role of invasions in shaping pathogen population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease vulnerability of host varieties prior to their deployment at larger scales.

  15. What is really causing the obesity epidemic? A review of reviews in children and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Sharon E; Flynn, Jennifer I; Pate, Russell R

    2016-01-01

    Obesity prevention is a public health priority and intervention strategies have focused primarily on healthy eating and physical activity in children and adults. To date, no review has systematically compiled and synthesised the scientific evidence from published review articles to determine whether there is clear consensus on the causes of obesity. A systematic review of the literature was conducted searching PubMed/Medline for narrative and systematic review articles published between January 1990 and October 2014 that examined the causes of obesity. In total, 12 of 65 articles met the inclusion criteria; 7 reviews focused on adults (1 systematic, 6 narrative) and 5 reviews on children (2 systematic, 3 narrative). The most popular cause of obesity identified in reviews of adult studies was "combined physical activity and diet" (3 of 7 studies), whereas the most popular cause specified in reviews of child studies was deemed "inconclusive" (2 of 5 studies). While a number of reviews have examined the causes of obesity, the methodology and conclusions varied widely, and few were conducted systematically. Currently, no consensus exists across published literature reviews regarding the primary cause of the obesity epidemic, and more research, particularly prospective studies using state-of-the-art measures, is warranted.

  16. Cell Vacuolation Caused by Vibrio cholerae Hemolysin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Arredondo, Paula; Heuser, John E.; Akopyants, Natalia S.; Morisaki, J. Hiroshi; Giono-Cerezo, Silvia; Enríquez-Rincón, Fernando; Berg, Douglas E.

    2001-01-01

    Non-O1 strains of Vibrio cholerae implicated in gastroenteritis and diarrhea generally lack virulence determinants such as cholera toxin that are characteristic of epidemic strains; the factors that contribute to their virulence are not understood. Here we report that at least one-third of diarrhea-associated nonepidemic V. cholerae strains from Mexico cause vacuolation of cultured Vero cells. Detailed analyses indicated that this vacuolation was related to that caused by aerolysin, a pore-forming toxin of Aeromonas; it involved primarily the endoplasmic reticulum at early times (∼1 to 4 h after exposure), and resulted in formation of large, acidic, endosome-like multivesicular vacuoles (probably autophagosomes) only at late times (∼16 h). In contrast to vacuolation caused by Helicobacter pylori VacA protein, that induced by V. cholerae was exacerbated by agents that block vacuolar proton pumping but not by endosome-targeted weak bases. It caused centripetal redistribution of endosomes, reflecting cytoplasmic alkalinization. The gene for V. cholerae vacuolating activity was cloned and was found to correspond to hlyA, the structural gene for hemolysin. HlyA protein is a pore-forming toxin that causes ion leakage and, ultimately, eukaryotic cell lysis. Thus, a distinct form of cell vacuolation precedes cytolysis at low doses of hemolysin. We propose that this vacuolation, in itself, contributes to the virulence of V. cholerae strains, perhaps by perturbing intracellular membrane trafficking or ion exchange in target cells and thereby affecting local intestinal inflammatory or other defense responses. PMID:11179335

  17. Cell vacuolation caused by Vibrio cholerae hemolysin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Arredondo, P; Heuser, J E; Akopyants, N S; Morisaki, J H; Giono-Cerezo, S; Enríquez-Rincón, F; Berg, D E

    2001-03-01

    Non-O1 strains of Vibrio cholerae implicated in gastroenteritis and diarrhea generally lack virulence determinants such as cholera toxin that are characteristic of epidemic strains; the factors that contribute to their virulence are not understood. Here we report that at least one-third of diarrhea-associated nonepidemic V. cholerae strains from Mexico cause vacuolation of cultured Vero cells. Detailed analyses indicated that this vacuolation was related to that caused by aerolysin, a pore-forming toxin of Aeromonas; it involved primarily the endoplasmic reticulum at early times (approximately 1 to 4 h after exposure), and resulted in formation of large, acidic, endosome-like multivesicular vacuoles (probably autophagosomes) only at late times (approximately 16 h). In contrast to vacuolation caused by Helicobacter pylori VacA protein, that induced by V. cholerae was exacerbated by agents that block vacuolar proton pumping but not by endosome-targeted weak bases. It caused centripetal redistribution of endosomes, reflecting cytoplasmic alkalinization. The gene for V. cholerae vacuolating activity was cloned and was found to correspond to hlyA, the structural gene for hemolysin. HlyA protein is a pore-forming toxin that causes ion leakage and, ultimately, eukaryotic cell lysis. Thus, a distinct form of cell vacuolation precedes cytolysis at low doses of hemolysin. We propose that this vacuolation, in itself, contributes to the virulence of V. cholerae strains, perhaps by perturbing intracellular membrane trafficking or ion exchange in target cells and thereby affecting local intestinal inflammatory or other defense responses.

  18. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

  19. Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, A K

    1994-01-01

    In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

  20. The genome of Burkholderia cenocepacia J2315, an epidemic pathogen of cystic fibrosis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holden, Matthew T G; Seth-Smith, Helena M B; Crossman, Lisa C

    2009-01-01

    ; the resulting chronic infections are associated with severe declines in lung function and increased mortality rates. B. cenocepacia strain J2315 was isolated from a CF patient and is a member of the epidemic ET12 lineage that originated in Canada or the United Kingdom and spread to Europe. The 8.06-Mb genome...... be pathogenic to both plants and man, J2315 is representative of a lineage of B. cenocepacia rarely isolated from the environment and which spreads between CF patients. Comparative analysis revealed that ca. 21% of the genome is unique in comparison to other strains of B. cenocepacia, highlighting the genomic...... success as an epidemic CF pathogen....

  1. A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéfan Tzortzis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

  2. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  3. Analysis of the VP2 protein gene of canine parvovirus strains from affected dogs in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soma, Takehisa; Taharaguchi, Satoshi; Ohinata, Tsuyoshi; Ishii, Hiroshi; Hara, Motonobu

    2013-04-01

    To clarify the evolution of canine parvovirus 2 (CPV-2) that has recently been epidemic in Japan, VP2 gene sequences at positions 3556-4166 were analyzed in 107 CPV-2 strains obtained from rectal swabs of diarrheic dogs from 2009 to 2011. CPV-2b (95 strains) was more frequently detected than CPV-2a (nine strains), while CPV-2c was not detected. Remaining three strains were identified as the original type CPV-2, which should be derived from vaccines. These findings are similar to the previous results involving Japanese strains, suggesting there has been no great change in the recent CPV-2 epidemic in Japan. This epidemic is the same as that in Taiwan. Furthermore, a 324-lle mutant, which has been reported in Korean and Chinese strains, was detected in 66.7% of CPV-2a strains. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The HIV epidemic in Greenland - a slow spreading infection among adult heterosexual Greenlanders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn-Mortensen, Karen; Ladefoged, Karin; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths.......We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths....

  5. Typing of Canine Parvovirus Strains Circulating in North-East China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, H; Wang, J; Jiang, Y; Cheng, Y; Lin, P; Zhu, H; Han, G; Yi, L; Zhang, S; Guo, L; Cheng, S

    2017-04-01

    Canine parvovirus (CPV) is highly contagious and is a major cause of haemorrhagic enteritis and myocarditis in dogs. We investigated the genetic variation of emerging CPV strains by sequencing 64 CPV VP2 genes from 216 clinical samples of dogs from Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong and Hebei in 2014. Genetic analysis revealed that CPV-2b was predominant in Hebei and CPV-2a was predominant in the other four provinces. In addition, a CPV-2c strain has emerged in Shandong province. All samples had a Ser-Ala substitution at residue 297 and an Ile-Arg substitution at residue 324. Interestingly, in five separate canine samples, we found a mutation of Gln370 to Arg, until now detected only in isolates from pandas. The phylogenetic analysis showed clear distinctions between epidemic isolates and vaccine strains and between Chinese CPV-2c strains and CPV-2c strains found in other countries. Monitoring recent incidence of CPV strains enables evaluation and implementation of disease control strategies. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  6. Molecular characterisation of Sporothrix schenckii isolates from humans and cats involved in the sporotrichosis epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosani Santos Reis

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available An epidemic of sporotrichosis, a subcutaneous mycosis caused by the fungus Sporothrix schenckii, is ongoing in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in which cases of human infection are related to exposure to cats. In an attempt to demonstrate the zoonotic character of this epidemic using molecular methodology, we characterised by DNA-based typing methods 19 human and 25 animal S. schenckii isolates from the epidemic, as well as two control strains. To analyse the isolates, the random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD technique was performed using three different primers, together with DNA fingerprinting using the minisatellite derived from the wild-type phage M13 core-sequence. The analyses generated amplicons with considerable polymorphism. Although isolates exhibited high levels of genetic relatedness, they could be clustered into 5-10 genotypes. The RAPD profiles of epidemic S. schenckii isolates could be distinguished from that of the United States isolate, displaying 20% similarity to each primer and 60% when amplified with the M13 primer. DNA fingerprinting of S. schenckii isolated from the nails (42.8% and the oral cavities (66% of cats were identical to related human samples, suggesting that there is a common infection source for animals and humans in this epidemic. It is clear that cats act as a vehicle for dissemination of S. schenckii.

  7. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  8. Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

  9. Zika virus infection in Vietnam: current epidemic, strain origin, spreading risk, and perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Dinh-Toi; Ngoc, Vo Truong Nhu; Tao, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Zika virus infection and its associated microcephaly have being receiving global concern. This infection has spread widely since the first outbreak was recorded in Africa in 1952. Now, it has been reported in over 70 countries on five continents including Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Europe. Vietnam is one of the most recent countries which had cases of Zika virus infection at the end of 2016. This country has also reported the first case of a microcephaly-born baby which was probably linked to Zika virus infection. However, information on the Zika virus epidemic in Vietnam is still limited. This brief report intends to update the current Zika virus epidemic, and to discuss challenges and perspectives in controlling this infection in Vietnam.

  10. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  11. Identification and development of a promising novel mumps vaccine candidate strain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yan; Ma, Shaohui; Liu, Longding; Zhao, Hongling; Wang, Lichun; Jiang, Li; Xie, Zhongping; Dong, Chenghong; Li, Qihan

    2010-12-01

    Mumps epidemics are usually caused by airborne transmission of mumps virus (MuV) and have high morbidity in non-immunized children. Epidemiological studies in many regions of China show that the genotype F viral strain is the most prevalent. However, the genotype A strain is currently used to prepare vaccines. Regional epidemiological MuV data suggest a significant application for the development of live attenuated mumps vaccines targeting specific genotypes. This article reports the isolation and culture of a genotype F MuV candidate strain that could be used to prepare a live attenuated mumps vaccine. This strain is shown to have good immunological efficacy and stability in neurovirulence evaluations. This work should facilitate the implementation of mumps vaccination in mainland China by targeting the most prevalent MuV genotype, genotype F. Copyright © 2010 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  12. Genetic relatedness of ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella dysenteriae type 1 strains isolated in south Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talukder, Kaisar A; Khajanchi, Bijay K; Islam, M Aminul; Dutta, Dilip K; Islam, Zhahirul; Safa, Ashrafus; Khan, G Y; Alam, Khorshed; Hossain, M A; Malla, Sarala; Niyogi, S K; Rahman, Mustafizur; Watanabe, Haruo; Nair, G Balakrish; Sack, David A

    2004-10-01

    The aim of the present study was to determine the clonal relationships of ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella dysenteriae type 1 strains isolated from south Asia, and S. dysenteriae 1 strains associated with epidemics in 1978, 1984 and 1994. The antimicrobial susceptibilities were examined by NCCLS methods. Molecular epidemiological characterization was performed by plasmid profiling, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and mutation analysis of the quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of gyrA by sequencing. Plasmid patterns of the current ciprofloxacin-resistant strains from India, Nepal and Bangladesh were very similar to those of the 1978, 1984 and 1994 epidemic isolates of S. dysenteriae 1, except for the presence of a new plasmid of approximately 2.6 MDa, which was found in one recent ciprofloxacin-resistant strain isolated in Bangladesh. PFGE analysis showed that the ciprofloxacin-resistant strains isolated in Bangladesh, India and Nepal belonged to a PFGE type (type A), which was possibly related to that of the 1984 and 1994 clone of S. dysenteriae 1, but different from 1978 epidemic strains. The current ciprofloxacin-resistant strains belong to five subtypes (A3-A7), all of which were found in India, but in Bangladesh and Nepal, only A3 existed. Mutation analysis of the QRDR of gyrA revealed that amino acid substitutions at positions 83 and 87 of ciprofloxacin-resistant strains isolated in Bangladesh were similar to those of the strains isolated in Nepal, but different (at position 87) from ciprofloxacin-resistant strains isolated in India. PFGE and mutation analysis of gyrA showed differences between the current ciprofloxacin-resistant S. dysenteriae 1 strains isolated in south Asia and those associated with epidemics in 1978, 1984 and 1994.

  13. Epidemic Increase in Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westh, Henrik; Boye, Kit; Bartels, Mette Damkjær

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We have found an epidemic increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Copenhagen. The increase has a complex background and involves hospitals, nursing homes and persons nursed in their own home. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We found 33 MRSA patients in 2003 and 121...... in 2004. All isolates have been spa-typed and epidemiologic information collected. RESULTS: The number of MRSA cases has a doubling time of about six months. The epidemic has been caused by many different MRSA types and 31 staphylococcus protein A genotypes (spa types). MRSA has caused several hospital...

  14. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blower Sally

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

  15. Emergence of recombinant forms in geographic regions with co-circulating HIV subtypes in the dynamic HIV-1 epidemic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Ming [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Letiner, Thomas K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Korber, Bette T [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Foley, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We have reexamined the subtype designations of {approx}10,000 subtype A, B, C, G, and AG, BC, BF recombinant sequences, and compared the results of the new analysis with their published designations. Intersubtype recombinants dominate HIV epidemics in three different geographical regions. The circulating recombinant from (CRF) CRF02-AG, common in West Central Africa, appears to result from a recombination event that occurred early in the divergence between subtypes A and G, although additional more recent recombination events may have contributed to the breakpoint pattern in this recombinant lineage as well. The Chinese recombinant epidemic strains CRF07 and CRF08, in contrast, result from recent recombinations between more contemporary strains. Nevertheless, CRF07 and CRF08 contributed to many subsequent recombination events. The BF recombinant epidemics in two HIV-1 epicenters in South America are not independent and BF epidemics in South America have an unusually high fraction of unique recombinant forms (URFs) that have each been found only once and carry distinctive breakpoints. Taken together, these analyses reveal a complex and dynamic picture of the current HIV-1 epidemic, and suggest a means of grouping and tracking relationships between viruses through preservation of shared breakpints.

  16. Comparative Genomics of Escherichia coli Strains Causing Urinary Tract Infections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vejborg, Rebecca Munk; Hancock, Viktoria; Schembri, Mark A.

    2011-01-01

    The virulence determinants of uropathogenic Escherichia coli have been studied extensively over the years, but relatively little is known about what differentiates isolates causing various types of urinary tract infections. In this study, we compared the genomic profiles of 45 strains from a range...

  17. IncA/C plasmids harboured in serious multidrug-resistant Vibrio cholerae serogroup O139 strains in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruibai; Yu, Dong; Zhu, Lianhui; Li, Jie; Yue, Junjie; Kan, Biao

    2015-03-01

    Vibrio cholerae serogroup O139 emerged in 1992 and is one of two major serogroups to have caused cholera epidemics. After 1998, serious multidrug-resistant (MDR) O139 strains quickly became common in China, showing a multidrug resistance profile to eight antibiotics. It is a great threat to public health, and elucidation of its mechanisms of resistance will provide a helpful guide for the clinical treatment and prevention of cholera. In this study, mega-plasmids from MDR V. cholerae O139 strains were identified by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) without enzyme digestion. One plasmid was isolated and sequenced, belonging to the IncA/C family. Ten antibiotic resistance genes were found in the MDR regions, including a blaTEM-20 gene, and these genes endowed the host with resistance to seven antibiotics. This kind of plasmid was positive in 71.2% (198/278) of toxigenic O139 strains, and the rate of plasmid positivity was consistent with the yearly change in MDR rates of these strains. This study reveals an important role of the IncA/C family plasmid in the spread of multiple antibiotic resistance of epidemic V. cholerae serogroup O139 strains, which has recombined with plasmids from different bacterial species and transferred among V. cholerae strains. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

  18. Zika Virus Strains Potentially Display Different Infectious Profiles in Human Neural Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yannick Simonin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent Zika virus (ZIKV epidemic has highlighted the poor knowledge on its physiopathology. Recent studies showed that ZIKV of the Asian lineage, responsible for this international outbreak, causes neuropathology in vitro and in vivo. However, two African lineages exist and the virus is currently found circulating in Africa. The original African strain was also suggested to be neurovirulent but its laboratory usage has been criticized due to its multiple passages. In this study, we compared the French Polynesian (Asian ZIKV strain to an African strain isolated in Central African Republic and show a difference in infectivity and cellular response between both strains in human neural stem cells and astrocytes. Consistently, this African strain led to a higher infection rate and viral production, as well as stronger cell death and anti-viral response. Our results highlight the need to better characterize the physiopathology and predict neurological impairment associated with African ZIKV.

  19. Bovine epizootic encephalomyelitis caused by Akabane virus in southern Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanaka Shogo

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Akabane virus is a member of the genus Orthobunyavirus in the family Bunyaviridae. It is transmitted by hematophagous arthropod vectors such as Culicoides biting midges and is widely distributed in temperate to tropical regions of the world. The virus is well known as a teratogenic pathogen which causes abortions, stillbirths, premature births and congenital abnormalities with arthrogryposis-hydranencephaly syndrome in cattle, sheep and goats. On the other hand, it is reported that the virus rarely induces encephalomyelitis in cattle by postnatal infection. A first large-scale epidemic of Akabane viral encephalomyelitis in cattle occurred in the southern part of Japan from summer to autumn in 2006. The aim of this study is to define the epidemiological, pathological and virological properties of the disease. Results Nonsuppurative encephalomyelitis was observed in cattle that showed neurological symptoms such as astasia, ataxia, opisthotonus and hypersensitivity in beef and dairy farms by histopathological analysis. Akabane viral antigen and genome were consistently detected from the central nervous system of these animals, and the virus was isolated not only from them but also from the blood samples of clinically healthy calves in the epidemic area. The isolates were classified into genogroup I a containing the Iriki strain, which caused encephalitis of calves almost twenty years ago in Japan. Most of the affected cattle possessed the neutralizing antibody against Akabane virus. Seroconversion of the cohabitated and sentinel cattle in the epidemic area was also confirmed during an outbreak of the disease. Conclusion The ecological and epidemiological data we have obtained so far demonstrated that the Akabane virus is not endemic in Japan. No evidence of Akabane virus circulation was observed in 2005 through nation-wide serological surveillance, suggesting that a new strain belonging to genogroup I a invaded southern Japan

  20. Origins of the E. coli strain causing an outbreak of hemolytic-uremic syndrome in Germany

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasko, David A; Webster, Dale R; Sahl, Jason W

    2011-01-01

    A large outbreak of diarrhea and the hemolytic-uremic syndrome caused by an unusual serotype of Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli (O104:H4) began in Germany in May 2011. As of July 22, a large number of cases of diarrhea caused by Shiga-toxin-producing E. coli have been reported--3167 without...... the hemolytic-uremic syndrome (16 deaths) and 908 with the hemolytic-uremic syndrome (34 deaths)--indicating that this strain is notably more virulent than most of the Shiga-toxin-producing E. coli strains. Preliminary genetic characterization of the outbreak strain suggested that, unlike most of these strains......, it should be classified within the enteroaggregative pathotype of E. coli....

  1. Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: Effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

    OpenAIRE

    Ackley, SF; Liu, F; Porco, TC; Pepperell, CS

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Ackley et al. Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) inWestern Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explor...

  2. Study of 138 Neisseria meningitidis strains isolated from blood or cerebrospinal fluid in Lombardy between 2007 and 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Daprai

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Haemophilus influenzae type b cause the majority of cases of bacterial septicaemia in children and young adults. Disease epidemiology is evolving rapidly due to the introduction of vaccines and changing in bacterial antibiotic-resistance patterns. (Asymptomatic nasopharyngeal colonization with Neisseria meningitides occurs in 5-10% of adult. The aim of this study was to calculate the frequency of each serogroup of this pathogens involved in invasive infection and to study susceptibility to antibiotics of these strains. Between March 2007 and June 2010 we received, from 43 hospitals of Lombardy, 138 strains of Neisseria meningitidis, from 138 patients aged (2-80yrs. The most frequent serogroup was B (58%, followed by serogroup C (34%, serogroup G (4% and W 135 (2%. Serogroup A end X accounted for 1% of invasive infection, each. We observed a decrease in susceptibility towards penicillin in 38% of strains. In addition we studied, by REP- PCR, genotype of 9 strains selected on the basis of epidemiological data.Among these strains, 3 different clusters according to the 3 small epidemic outbreaks occurred between June and September 2009, were recognised. Seven of these strains, although belonged to the same serogroup, brought about two different clusters. The present findings demonstrated that phenotypic data are not sufficient to define epidemic clusters, therefore molecular genotyping is required.

  3. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  4. National borders effectively halt the spread of rabies: the current rabies epidemic in China is dislocated from cases in neighboring countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyang; Tao, Xiaoyan; Yin, Cuiping; Han, Na; Yu, Jinning; Li, Hao; Liu, Haizhou; Fang, Wei; Adams, James; Wang, Jun; Liang, Guodong; Tang, Qing; Rayner, Simon

    2013-01-01

    China has seen a massive resurgence of rabies cases in the last 15 years with more than 25,000 human fatalities. Initial cases were reported in the southwest but are now reported in almost every province. There have been several phylogenetic investigations into the origin and spread of the virus within China but few reports investigating the impact of the epidemic on neighboring countries. We therefore collected nucleoprotein sequences from China and South East Asia and investigated their phylogenetic and phylogeographic relationship. Our results indicate that within South East Asia, isolates mainly cluster according to their geographic origin. We found evidence of sporadic exchange of strains between neighboring countries, but it appears that the major strain responsible for the current Chinese epidemic has not been exported. This suggests that national geographical boundaries and border controls are effective at halting the spread of rabies from China into adjacent regions. We further investigated the geographic structure of Chinese sequences and found that the current epidemic is dominated by variant strains that were likely present at low levels in previous domestic epidemics. We also identified epidemiological linkages between high incidence provinces consistent with observations based on surveillance data from human rabies cases.

  5. Genomic analysis of a Streptococcus pyogenes strain causing endocarditis in a child

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    M. Beye

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available We sequenced the genome of Streptococcus pyogenes strain G773 that caused an infective endocarditis in a 4-year-old boy suffering from acute endocarditis. The 1.9-Mb genome exhibited a specific combination of virulence factors including a complete integrative and conjugative element, sp2905, previously described as incomplete in S. pyogenes, and five bacteriocin-coding genes. However, strain G773 lacked a CRISPR-Cas system.

  6. In vitro transfer of multiple resistance observed in vivo during a Salmonella london epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantos, J; Marjai, E

    1980-01-01

    Between 1976 and 1978, waves of Salmonella london infections conveyed by raw meat and meat products were observed. The strains isolated during the epidemic were first susceptible then developed multiple antibiotic resistance. The identical antibiotic resistance patterns of the strain and their more frequent occurrence in hospital environments indicated plasmid-mediated resistance. R-plasmid transfer, minimum inhibition concentration and resistance elimination were studied in representative strains. The resistant S. london strain and transconjugants of Escherichia coli rendered resistant were compared. The results proved that multiple resistance was plasmid-mediated.

  7. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  8. High proportion of intestinal colonization with successful epidemic clones of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in a neonatal intensive care unit in Ecuador.

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    Viveka Nordberg

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Neonatal infections caused by Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL-producing bacteria are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. No data are available on neonatal colonization with ESBL-producing bacteria in Ecuador. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of intestinal colonization with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae, their resistance pattern and risk factors of colonization in a neonatal intensive care unit in Ecuador. METHODS: During a three month period, stool specimens were collected every two weeks from hospitalized neonates. Species identification and susceptibility testing were performed with Vitek2, epidemiologic typing with automated repetitive PCR. Associations between groups were analyzed using the Pearson X (2 test and Fisher exact test. A forward step logistic regression model identified significant predictors for colonization. RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of the neonates were colonized with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae. Length of stay longer than 20 days and enteral feeding with a combination of breastfeeding and formula feeding were significantly associated with ESBL-colonization. The strains found were E. coli (EC, 89% and K. pneumoniae (KP, 11% and epidemiological typing divided these isolates in two major clusters. All EC and KP had bla CTX-M group 1 except for a unique EC isolate that had bla CTX-M group 9. Multi-locus sequence typing performed on the K. pneumoniae strains showed that the strains belonged to ST855 and ST897. The two detected STs belong to two different epidemic clonal complexes (CC, CC11 and CC14, which previously have been associated with dissemination of carbapenemases. None of the E. coli strains belonged to the epidemic ST 131 clone. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of the neonates were colonized with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae where the main risk factor for colonization was length of hospital stay. Two of the isolated clones were epidemic and known

  9. A field guide to pandemic, epidemic and sporadic clones of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Monecke, Stefan

    2011-04-01

    In recent years, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have become a truly global challenge. In addition to the long-known healthcare-associated clones, novel strains have also emerged outside of the hospital settings, in the community as well as in livestock. The emergence and spread of virulent clones expressing Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) is an additional cause for concern. In order to provide an overview of pandemic, epidemic and sporadic strains, more than 3,000 clinical and veterinary isolates of MRSA mainly from Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Malta, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, Australia, Trinidad & Tobago as well as some reference strains from the United States have been genotyped by DNA microarray analysis. This technique allowed the assignment of the MRSA isolates to 34 distinct lineages which can be clearly defined based on non-mobile genes. The results were in accordance with data from multilocus sequence typing. More than 100 different strains were distinguished based on affiliation to these lineages, SCCmec type and the presence or absence of PVL. These strains are described here mainly with regard to clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance- and virulence-associated markers, but also in relation to epidemiology and geographic distribution. The findings of the study show a high level of biodiversity among MRSA, especially among strains harbouring SCCmec IV and V elements. The data also indicate a high rate of genetic recombination in MRSA involving SCC elements, bacteriophages or other mobile genetic elements and large-scale chromosomal replacements.

  10. A Field Guide to Pandemic, Epidemic and Sporadic Clones of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monecke, Stefan; Coombs, Geoffrey; Shore, Anna C.; Coleman, David C.; Akpaka, Patrick; Borg, Michael; Chow, Henry; Ip, Margaret; Jatzwauk, Lutz; Jonas, Daniel; Kadlec, Kristina; Kearns, Angela; Laurent, Frederic; O'Brien, Frances G.; Pearson, Julie; Ruppelt, Antje; Schwarz, Stefan; Scicluna, Elizabeth; Slickers, Peter; Tan, Hui-Leen; Weber, Stefan; Ehricht, Ralf

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have become a truly global challenge. In addition to the long-known healthcare-associated clones, novel strains have also emerged outside of the hospital settings, in the community as well as in livestock. The emergence and spread of virulent clones expressing Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) is an additional cause for concern. In order to provide an overview of pandemic, epidemic and sporadic strains, more than 3,000 clinical and veterinary isolates of MRSA mainly from Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Malta, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, Australia, Trinidad & Tobago as well as some reference strains from the United States have been genotyped by DNA microarray analysis. This technique allowed the assignment of the MRSA isolates to 34 distinct lineages which can be clearly defined based on non-mobile genes. The results were in accordance with data from multilocus sequence typing. More than 100 different strains were distinguished based on affiliation to these lineages, SCCmec type and the presence or absence of PVL. These strains are described here mainly with regard to clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance- and virulence-associated markers, but also in relation to epidemiology and geographic distribution. The findings of the study show a high level of biodiversity among MRSA, especially among strains harbouring SCCmec IV and V elements. The data also indicate a high rate of genetic recombination in MRSA involving SCC elements, bacteriophages or other mobile genetic elements and large-scale chromosomal replacements. PMID:21494333

  11. Genetic surveillance detects both clonal and epidemic transmission of malaria following enhanced intervention in Senegal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Daniels

    Full Text Available Using parasite genotyping tools, we screened patients with mild uncomplicated malaria seeking treatment at a clinic in Thiès, Senegal, from 2006 to 2011. We identified a growing frequency of infections caused by genetically identical parasite strains, coincident with increased deployment of malaria control interventions and decreased malaria deaths. Parasite genotypes in some cases persisted clonally across dry seasons. The increase in frequency of genetically identical parasite strains corresponded with decrease in the probability of multiple infections. Further, these observations support evidence of both clonal and epidemic population structures. These data provide the first evidence of a temporal correlation between the appearance of identical parasite types and increased malaria control efforts in Africa, which here included distribution of insecticide treated nets (ITNs, use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs for malaria detection, and deployment of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT. Our results imply that genetic surveillance can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control strategies and assist a rational global malaria eradication campaign.

  12. Rubella epidemic caused by genotype 1E rubella viruses in Beijing, China, in 2007-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Meng; Zhu, Zhen; Liu, Donglei; Huang, Guohong; Huang, Fang; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Tiegang; Xu, Wenbo; Pang, Xinghuo

    2013-04-18

    A series of different rubella vaccination strategies were implemented to control rubella and prevent congenital rubella virus infection in Beijing, China. The rubella vaccine was available in 1995 in Beijing, and was introduced into the Beijing immunization program (vaccine recipients at their own expense vaccination) in 2000, and was introduced into the National Expanded Program on Immunization (vaccine recipients free vaccination) in 2006. Rubella virological surveillance started in Beijing in 2007. The reported rubella incidence rate has decreased dramatically due to the introduction of the vaccine in Beijing since 1995. However, rubella epidemics occurred regardless in 2001 and 2007. The incidence rate among the floating population has gradually increased since 2002, reaching 2 or more times that in the permanent resident population. The peak age of rubella cases gradually changed from tree was constructed based on the World Health Organization standard sequence window for rubella virus isolates. All Beijing rubella virus isolates belong to genotype 1E/cluster1 and were clustered interspersed with viruses from other provinces in China. The effective number of infections indicated by a Bayesian skyline plot remained constant from 2007 to 2011. The proportion of rubella cases among the floating population has increased significantly in Beijing since 2002, and the disease burden gradually shifted to the older age group (15- to 39-year olds), which has become a major group with rubella infection since 2006. Genotype 1E rubella virus continuously caused a rubella epidemic in Beijing in 2007-2011 and was the predominant virus, and all Beijing genotype 1E viruses belong to cluster 1, which is also widely circulated throughout the country.

  13. Purulent Pericarditis Caused by Streptococcus Milleri Strains; the Gained Experience from Nine Reported Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilias A. Kouerinis

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Bacterial pericarditis caused by Streptococcus Milleri Group (SMG strains is a particularly exceptional pathology. All the eight previous reported cases were under the care of medical teams and the seven existed reports in medical journals were more or less from this perspective. Herein, we reported a unique case of a pericardial-cutaneous fistula resulting from a recurrent purulent pericardial effusion caused by SMG strains, which had been treated with open surgical drainage two months before. A thorough review of the surgical treatment options and the results has also been presented.

  14. Ocular sporotrichosis: A frequently misdiagnosed cause of granulomatous conjunctivitis in epidemic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagata, João Paulo M; Rudolph, Fabiana B; Nobre, Maria Clara L; Nascimento, Leninha V; Sampaio, Felipe Maurício S; Arinelli, Andrea; Freitas, Dayvison F

    2017-12-01

    Sporotrichosis is a subcutaneous mycosis caused by Sporothrix sp., a dimorphic fungus. Although the cutaneous form is the most frequent form, the ocular presentation has been increasingly diagnosed in epidemic areas. We describe three cases of ocular sporotrichosis with the involvement of the ocular adnexa due to autoinoculation without trauma with successful antifungal treatment. Patient 1: A 68-year-old woman presented with granulomatous conjunctivitis of the right eye with an ulcerated nodule on the right temporal region for 5 months. Patient 2: A 46-year-old woman with conjunctival hyperemia of the left eye with associated periorbital edema and erythema for the past 4 months was referred to the Dermatology Department due to an ulcerated nodule on the left malar region. Patient 3: A 14-year-old boy presented to the emergency department with inferior palpebral edema with a 5-day evolution. Specimens were obtained from the lesions of the three patients, and the cultures were positive for Sporothrix sp. The three cases were diagnosed as ocular sporotrichosis and were successfully treated with itraconazole (200-400 mg/d). Two of the three patients developed sequelae such as conjunctival fibrosis and symblepharon. We emphasize the importance of the ophthalmologist being familiar with the diagnosis and management of this rare and frequently misdiagnosed form of sporotrichosis.

  15. [Algorithm of toxigenic genetically altered Vibrio cholerae El Tor biovar strain identification].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, N I; Agafonov, D A; Zadnova, S P; Cherkasov, A V; Kutyrev, V V

    2014-01-01

    Development of an algorithm of genetically altered Vibrio cholerae biovar El Tor strai identification that ensures determination of serogroup, serovar and biovar of the studied isolate based on pheno- and genotypic properties, detection of genetically altered cholera El Tor causative agents, their differentiation by epidemic potential as well as evaluation of variability of key pathogenicity genes. Complex analysis of 28 natural V. cholerae strains was carried out by using traditional microbiological methods, PCR and fragmentary sequencing. An algorithm of toxigenic genetically altered V. cholerae biovar El Tor strain identification was developed that includes 4 stages: determination of serogroup, serovar and biovar based on phenotypic properties, confirmation of serogroup and biovar based on molecular-genetic properties determination of strains as genetically altered, differentiation of genetically altered strains by their epidemic potential and detection of ctxB and tcpA key pathogenicity gene polymorphism. The algorithm is based on the use of traditional microbiological methods, PCR and sequencing of gene fragments. The use of the developed algorithm will increase the effectiveness of detection of genetically altered variants of the cholera El Tor causative agent, their differentiation by epidemic potential and will ensure establishment of polymorphism of genes that code key pathogenicity factors for determination of origins of the strains and possible routes of introduction of the infection.

  16. Whole-Genome Characterization and Strain Comparison of VT2f-Producing Escherichia coli Causing Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelacci, Valeria; Bondì, Roslen; Gigliucci, Federica; Franz, Eelco; Badouei, Mahdi Askari; Schlager, Sabine; Minelli, Fabio; Tozzoli, Rosangela; Caprioli, Alfredo; Morabito, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    Verotoxigenic Escherichia coli infections in humans cause disease ranging from uncomplicated intestinal illnesses to bloody diarrhea and systemic sequelae, such as hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). Previous research indicated that pigeons may be a reservoir for a population of verotoxigenic E. coli producing the VT2f variant. We used whole-genome sequencing to characterize a set of VT2f-producing E. coli strains from human patients with diarrhea or HUS and from healthy pigeons. We describe a phage conveying the vtx2f genes and provide evidence that the strains causing milder diarrheal disease may be transmitted to humans from pigeons. The strains causing HUS could derive from VT2f phage acquisition by E. coli strains with a virulence genes asset resembling that of typical HUS-associated verotoxigenic E. coli. PMID:27584691

  17. Vibrio cholerae O1 epidemic variants in Angola: a retrospective study between 1992 and 2006.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romy eValia

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Cholera is still a major public health concern in many African countries. In Angola, after a decade of absence, cholera reemerged in 1987, spreading throughout the country until 1996, with outbreaks recurring in a seasonal pattern. In 2006 Angola was hit by one of the most severe outbreaks of the last decade, with ca. 240,000 cases reported.We analyzed 21 clinical strains isolated between 1992 and 2006 from several provinces throughout the country: Benguela, Bengo, Luanda, Cuando Cubango and Cabinda. We used two multiplex PCR assays to investigate discriminatory mobile genetic elements (ICEs, VSP-II, GI12, GI14, GI15, K and TLC phages and we compared the profiles obtained with those of different reference V. cholerae O1 variants (prototypical, altered and hybrid, responsible for the ongoing 7th pandemic. We also tested the strains for the presence of specific VSP-II variants and for the presence of a genomic island (WASA-1, correlated with the transmission of seventh pandemic cholera from Africa to South America. Based on the presence/absence of the analyzed genetic elements, five novel profiles were detected in the epidemic strains circulating in the 1990s. The most frequent profiles, F and G, were characterized by the absence of ICEs and the three GIs tested, and the presence of genomic island WASA-1 and the WASA variant of the VSP-II island. Our results identified unexpected variability within the 1990s epidemic, showing different rearrangements in a dynamic part of the genome not present in the prototypical V. cholerae O1 N16961. Moreover the 2006 strains differed from the current pandemic V. cholerae O1 strain. Taken together, our results highlight the role of horizontal gene transfer in diversifying the genetic background of V. cholerae within a single epidemic.

  18. Vibrio cholerae O1 epidemic variants in Angola: a retrospective study between 1992 and 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valia, Romy; Taviani, Elisa; Spagnoletti, Matteo; Ceccarelli, Daniela; Cappuccinelli, Piero; Colombo, Mauro M

    2013-01-01

    Cholera is still a major public health concern in many African countries. In Angola, after a decade of absence, cholera reemerged in 1987, spreading throughout the country until 1996, with outbreaks recurring in a seasonal pattern. In 2006 Angola was hit by one of the most severe outbreaks of the last decade, with ca. 240,000 cases reported. We analyzed 21 clinical strains isolated between 1992 and 2006 from several provinces throughout the country: Benguela, Bengo, Luanda, Cuando Cubango, and Cabinda. We used two multiplex PCR assays to investigate discriminatory mobile genetic elements (MGE) [Integrative Conjugative Elements (ICEs), VSP-II, GI12, GI14, GI15, K, and TLC phages] and we compared the profiles obtained with those of different reference V. cholerae O1 variants (prototypical, altered, and hybrid), responsible for the ongoing 7th pandemic. We also tested the strains for the presence of specific VSP-II variants and for the presence of a genomic island (GI) (WASA-1), correlated with the transmission of seventh pandemic cholera from Africa to South America. Based on the presence/absence of the analyzed genetic elements, five novel profiles were detected in the epidemic strains circulating in the 1990s. The most frequent profiles, F and G, were characterized by the absence of ICEs and the three GIs tested, and the presence of GI WASA-1 and the WASA variant of the VSP-II island. Our results identified unexpected variability within the 1990s epidemic, showing different rearrangements in a dynamic part of the genome not present in the prototypical V. cholerae O1 N16961. Moreover the 2006 strains differed from the current pandemic V. cholerae O1 strain. Taken together, our results highlight the role of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in diversifying the genetic background of V. cholerae within a single epidemic.

  19. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  20. Whole genome PCR scanning reveals the syntenic genome structure of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae strains in the O1/O139 population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Pang

    Full Text Available Vibrio cholerae is commonly found in estuarine water systems. Toxigenic O1 and O139 V. cholerae strains have caused cholera epidemics and pandemics, whereas the nontoxigenic strains within these serogroups only occasionally lead to disease. To understand the differences in the genome and clonality between the toxigenic and nontoxigenic strains of V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139, we employed a whole genome PCR scanning (WGPScanning method, an rrn operon-mediated fragment rearrangement analysis and comparative genomic hybridization (CGH to analyze the genome structure of different strains. WGPScanning in conjunction with CGH revealed that the genomic contents of the toxigenic strains were conservative, except for a few indels located mainly in mobile elements. Minor nucleotide variation in orthologous genes appeared to be the major difference between the toxigenic strains. rrn operon-mediated rearrangements were infrequent in El Tor toxigenic strains tested using I-CeuI digested pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE analysis and PCR analysis based on flanking sequence of rrn operons. Using these methods, we found that the genomic structures of toxigenic El Tor and O139 strains were syntenic. The nontoxigenic strains exhibited more extensive sequence variations, but toxin coregulated pilus positive (TCP+ strains had a similar structure. TCP+ nontoxigenic strains could be subdivided into multiple lineages according to the TCP type, suggesting the existence of complex intermediates in the evolution of toxigenic strains. The data indicate that toxigenic O1 El Tor and O139 strains were derived from a single lineage of intermediates from complex clones in the environment. The nontoxigenic strains with non-El Tor type TCP may yet evolve into new epidemic clones after attaining toxigenic attributes.

  1. The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    /HIV infection.The epidemiologic and spatial-temporal analysis of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic demonstrates a potential connection between TB and HIV in Urumqi. Demographic, temporal, geographic factors are the reasons of causing TB and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.

  2. Determination of the staphylococcal cassette chromosome in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains isolated from various clinical samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aysegül Copur-Cicek

    2016-06-01

    Conclusion ― In the present study, the most frequent cassette was detected as SCCmec type III in concordance with the studies conducted in Turkey and in some regions in the world. In conclusion, determination of epidemiological and molecular characteristics of MRSA strains has critical importance because of the difficulties in the treatment and of the nosocomial infections and epidemics they caused. The data obtained would contribute to the preventions in terms of epidemiology.

  3. HIV-1 CRF_BC recombinants infection in China: molecular epidemic and characterizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Yabo; Shao, Yiming; Ma, Liying

    2012-03-01

    CRF_BC recombinant strains were first identified in China and are one of the most prevalent and characteristically unique HIV-1 subtypes across China. Here we aim to review the published data about HIV-1 CRF_BC recombinant strains epidemic in China and to characterize the genetics, biology and drug resistance of this virus. This study may help to better understand the current situation of HIV-1 CRF_BC prevalence and facilitate the development of vaccines and more efficient anti-HIV-1 regimens in China.

  4. One Hundred Years in the Making: The Global Tobacco Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wipfli, Heather; Samet, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    Today's global tobacco epidemic may represent one of the first instances of the globalization of a noninfectious cause of disease. This article focuses on the first century of the global tobacco epidemic and its current status, reviewing the current and projected future of the global tobacco epidemic and the steps that are in progress to end it. In the United States and many countries of Western Europe, tobacco consumption peaked during the 1960s and 1970s and declined as tobacco control programs were initiated, motivated by the evidence indicting smoking as a leading cause of disease. Despite this policy advancement and the subsequent reductions in tobacco consumption, the global tobacco epidemic continued to grow exponentially in the later years of the twentieth century, as the multinational companies sought new markets to replace those shrinking in high-income countries. In response, between 2000 and 2004, the World Health Organization developed its first public health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which entered into force in 2005. An accompanying package of interventions has been implemented. New approaches to tobacco control, including plain packaging and single representation of brands, have been implemented by Australia and Uruguay, respectively, but have been challenged by the tobacco industry.

  5. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-12-05

    A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

  7. Large-scale application of highly-diluted bacteria for Leptospirosis epidemic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracho, Gustavo; Varela, Enrique; Fernández, Rolando; Ordaz, Barbara; Marzoa, Natalia; Menéndez, Jorge; García, Luis; Gilling, Esperanza; Leyva, Richard; Rufín, Reynaldo; de la Torre, Rubén; Solis, Rosa L; Batista, Niurka; Borrero, Reinier; Campa, Concepción

    2010-07-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of major importance in the tropics where the incidence peaks in rainy seasons. Natural disasters represent a big challenge to Leptospirosis prevention strategies especially in endemic regions. Vaccination is an effective option but of reduced effectiveness in emergency situations. Homeoprophylactic interventions might help to control epidemics by using highly-diluted pathogens to induce protection in a short time scale. We report the results of a very large-scale homeoprophylaxis (HP) intervention against Leptospirosis in a dangerous epidemic situation in three provinces of Cuba in 2007. Forecast models were used to estimate possible trends of disease incidence. A homeoprophylactic formulation was prepared from dilutions of four circulating strains of Leptospirosis. This formulation was administered orally to 2.3 million persons at high risk in an epidemic in a region affected by natural disasters. The data from surveillance were used to measure the impact of the intervention by comparing with historical trends and non-intervention regions. After the homeoprophylactic intervention a significant decrease of the disease incidence was observed in the intervention regions. No such modifications were observed in non-intervention regions. In the intervention region the incidence of Leptospirosis fell below the historic median. This observation was independent of rainfall. The homeoprophylactic approach was associated with a large reduction of disease incidence and control of the epidemic. The results suggest the use of HP as a feasible tool for epidemic control, further research is warranted. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. First isolation of dengue virus from the 2010 epidemic in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Basu D; Nabeshima, Takeshi; Pandey, Kishor; Rajendra, Saroj P; Shah, Yogendra; Adhikari, Bal R; Gupta, Govinda; Gautam, Ishan; Tun, Mya M N; Uchida, Reo; Shrestha, Mahendra; Kurane, Ichiro; Morita, Kouichi

    2013-09-01

    Dengue is an emerging disease in Nepal and was first observed as an outbreak in nine lowland districts in 2006. In 2010, however, a large epidemic of dengue occurred with 4,529 suspected and 917 serologically-confirmed cases and five deaths reported in government hospitals in Nepal. The collection of demographic information was performed along with an entomological survey and clinical evaluation of the patients. A total of 280 serum samples were collected from suspected dengue patients. These samples were subjected to routine laboratory investigations and IgM-capture ELISA for dengue serological identification, and 160 acute serum samples were used for virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. The results showed that affected patients were predominately adults, and that 10% of the cases were classified as dengue haemorrhagic fever/ dengue shock syndrome. The genetic characterization of dengue viruses isolated from patients in four major outbreak areas of Nepal suggests that the DENV-1 strain was responsible for the 2010 epidemic. Entomological studies identified Aedes aegypti in all epidemic areas. All viruses belonged to a monophyletic single clade which is phylogenetically close to Indian viruses. The dengue epidemic started in the lowlands and expanded to the highland areas. To our knowledge, this is the first dengue isolation and genetic characterization reported from Nepal.

  9. Global analysis of multi-strains SIS, SIR and MSIR epidemic models

    OpenAIRE

    Bichara , Derdei; Iggidr , Abderrahman; Sallet , Gauthier

    2014-01-01

    International audience; We consider SIS, SIR and MSIR models with standard mass action and varying population, with $n$ different pathogen strains of an infectious disease. We also consider the same models with vertical transmission. We prove that under generic conditions a competitive exclusion principle holds. To each strain a basic reproduction ratio can be associated. It corresponds to the case where only this strain exists. The basic reproduction ratio of the complete system is the maxim...

  10. [An iatrogenic epidemic of ophthalmia neonatorum (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salminen, L; Mattila, L; Pitkänen, Y

    1982-02-01

    Report on an epidemic of five cases of ophthalmia neonatorum caused by pseudomonas aeruginosa. The patients represented about 8% of the infants born and treated in one department during a period of six weeks. In four cases the ON was protracted in two patients it was complicated by dacryostenosis. At first all the patients were treated with locally administered chloramphenicol, to which pseudomonas aeruginosa was resistant. The three cases the serous secretion ended after opening of the lacrimal ducts together with local treatment with polymyxin, neomycin and gramicidin. In one case the pseudomonas aerginosa, together with S. aureus found in the secretion in vitro, was found to be sensitive to a combination of trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole, given perorally, which terminated the secretion. The epidemic was evidently caused by the use of contaminated water in the nursery room.

  11. Motor coordination and balance measurements reveal differential pathogenicity of currently spreading enterovirus 71 strains in human SCARB2 transgenic mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mei-Feng; Shih, Shin-Ru

    2016-12-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) has caused large-scale epidemics with neurological complications in the Asia-Pacific region. The C4a and B5 strains are the two major genotypes circulating in many countries recently. This study used a new protocol, a motor coordination task, to assess the differential pathogenicity of C4a and B5 strains in human SCARB2 transgenic mice. We found that the pathogenicity of C4a viruses was more severe than that of B5 viruses. Moreover, we discovered that an increased level of monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 was positively correlated with severely deficient motor function. This study provides a new method for evaluating EV71 infection in mice and distinguishing the severity of the symptoms caused by different clinical strains, which would contribute to studies of pathogenesis and development of vaccines and antivirals in EV71 infections.

  12. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A meningococcal NOMV-FHbp vaccine for Africa elicits broader serum bactericidal antibody responses against serogroup B and non-B strains than a licensed serogroup B vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajon, Rolando; Lujan, Eduardo; Granoff, Dan M

    2016-01-27

    Meningococcal epidemics in Sub-Sahara caused by serogroup A strains are controlled by a group A polysaccharide conjugate vaccine. Strains with serogroups C, W and X continue to cause epidemics. Protein antigens in licensed serogroup B vaccines are shared among serogroup B and non-B strains. Compare serum bactericidal antibody responses elicited by an investigational native outer membrane vesicle vaccine with over-expressed Factor H binding protein (NOMV-FHbp) and a licensed serogroup B vaccine (MenB-4C) against African serogroup A, B, C, W and X strains. Human Factor H (FH) transgenic mice were immunized with NOMV-FHbp prepared from a mutant African meningococcal strain containing genetically attenuated endotoxin and a mutant sub-family B FHbp antigen with low FH binding, or with MenB-4C, which contains a recombinant sub-family B FHbp antigen that binds human FH, and three other antigens, NHba, NadA and PorA P1.4, capable of eliciting bactericidal antibody. The NOMV-FHbp elicited serum bactericidal activity against 12 of 13 serogroup A, B, W or X strains from Africa, and four isogenic serogroup B mutants with sub-family B FHbp sequence variants. There was no activity against a serogroup B mutant with sub-family A FHbp, or two serogroup C isolates from a recent outbreak in Northern Nigeria, which were mismatched for both PorA and sub-family of the FHbp vaccine antigen. For MenB-4C, NHba was expressed by all 16 African isolates tested, FHbp sub-family B in 13, and NadA in five. However, MenB-4C elicited titers ≥ 1:10 against only one isolate, and against only two of four serogroup B mutant strains with sub-family B FHbp sequence variants. NOMV-FHbp has greater potential to confer serogroup-independent protection in Africa than the licensed MenB-4C vaccine. However, the NOMV-FHbp vaccine will require inclusion of sub-family A FHbp for coverage against recent serogroup C strains causing outbreaks in Northern Nigeria. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  14. The Epidemic History of HIV-1 CRF07_BC in Hetian Prefecture and the Role of It on HIV Spreading in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jianjun; Guo, Hongxiong; Zhang, Jing; Liu, Xiaoming; Ayoupu, Aideaierli; Shen, Yuelan; Miao, Lifeng; Tang, Jihai; Lei, Yanhua; Su, Bin

    2017-04-01

    CRF07_BC is one of the most prevalent HIV-1 strains in China, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has ever been considered to be a second epidemic center after Yunnan Province in previous studies. Here we use HIV-1 pol gene sequences identified from Hetian Prefecture located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region to reconstruct the epidemic history of HIV CRF07_BC strain circulating in this region. We found that CRF07_BC is the predominant HIV-1 form in Hetian Prefecture, and the estimated tMRCA analysis shows that there is no enough evidence supporting Xinjiang Autonomous Region as a second epidemic center of spreading HIV-1. It may imply that every city may be only a point among the HIV spreading network because of the frequent migration of population in the whole country nowadays.

  15. A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

    2016-11-01

    Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

  16. Molecular Epidemiology of a novel re-assorted epidemic strain of equine influenza virus in Pakistan in 2015-16.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Amjad; Mushtaq, Muhammad Hassan; Ahmad, Mansur Ud Din; Nazir, Jawad; Farooqi, Shahid Hussain; Khan, Asghar

    2017-08-15

    A widespread epidemic of equine influenza (EI) occurred in nonvaccinated equine population across multiple districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan during 2015-2016. An epidemiological surveillance study was conducted from Oct 2015 to April 2016 to investigate the outbreak. EI virus strains were isolated in embryonated eggs from suspected equines swab samples and were subjected to genome sequencing using M13 tagged segment specific primers. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences were concluded using Geneious. Haemagglutinin (HA), Neuraminidase (NA), Matrix (M) and nucleoprotein (NP) genes nucleotide and amino acid sequences of the isolated viruses were aligned with those of OIE recommended, FC-1, FC-2, and contemporary isolates of influenza A viruses from other species. HA and NA genes amino acid sequences were very similar to Tennessee/14 and Malaysia/15 of FC-1 and clustered with the contemporary isolates recently reported in the USA. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these viruses were mostly identical (with 99.6% and 97.4% nucleotide homology) to, and were reassortants containing chicken/Pakistan/14 (H7N3) and Canine/Beijing/10 (H3N2) like M and NP genes. Genetic analysis indicated that A/equine/Pakistan/16 viruses were most probably the result of several re-assortments between the co-circulating avian and equine viruses, and were genetically unlike the other equine viruses due to the presence of H7N3 or H3N2 like M and NP genes. Epidemiological data analysis indicated the potential chance of mixed, and management such as mixed farming system by keeping equine, canine and backyard poultry together in confined premises as the greater risk factors responsible for the re-assortments. Other factors might have contributed to the spread of the epidemic, including low awareness level, poor control of equine movements, and absence of border control disease strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Monitoring linked epidemics: the case of tuberculosis and HIV.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María S Sánchez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The tight epidemiological coupling between HIV and its associated opportunistic infections leads to challenges and opportunities for disease surveillance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We review efforts of WHO and collaborating agencies to track and fight the TB/HIV co-epidemic, and discuss modeling--via mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches--as a means to identify disease indicators designed to integrate data from linked diseases in order to characterize how co-epidemics change in time and space. We present R(TB/HIV, an index comparing changes in TB incidence relative to HIV prevalence, and use it to identify those sub-Saharan African countries with outlier TB/HIV dynamics. R(TB/HIV can also be used to predict epidemiological trends, investigate the coherency of reported trends, and cross-check the anticipated impact of public health interventions. Identifying the cause(s responsible for anomalous R(TB/HIV values can reveal information crucial to the management of public health. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We frame our suggestions for integrating and analyzing co-epidemic data within the context of global disease monitoring. Used routinely, joint disease indicators such as R(TB/HIV could greatly enhance the monitoring and evaluation of public health programs.

  18. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  19. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  20. Detection of cholera (ctx) and zonula occludens (zot) toxin genes in Vibrio cholerae O1, O139 and non-O1 strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, I G; Chowdhury, M A; Sanchez, P S; Sato, M I; Huq, A; Colwell, R R; Martins, M T

    1995-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 strains isolated from environmental samples collected in São Paulo, Brazil, during cholera epidemics and pre-epidemic periods were examined for the presence of toxin genes. V. cholerae O1 strains isolated from clinical samples in Peru and Mexico, and V. cholerae O139 strains from India were also examined for the presence of ctx (cholera toxin gene) and zot (zonula occludens toxin gene) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A modified DNA-extraction method applied in this study yielded satisfactory recovery of genomic DNA from vibrios. Results showed that strains of V. cholerae O1 isolated during the preepidemic period were ctx (-)/zot (-) whereas strains isolated during the epidemic were ctx (+)/zot (+). All V. cholerae non-O1 strains tested in the study were ctx (-)/zot (-), whereas all V. cholerae O139 strains were ctx (+)/zot (+). Rapid detection of the virulence genes (ctx and zot) can be achieved by PCR and this can serve as an important tool in the epidemiology and surveillance of V. cholerae.

  1. Status of vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the United States and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2013, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States as a rapidly spreading epidemic causing dramatic death losses in suckling piglets. Neonatal piglets are most vulnerable to clinical disease and their only protection is passive immunity from their dam. At the end of the thi...

  2. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  3. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  4. Phylodynamic reconstruction reveals norovirus GII.4 epidemic expansions and their molecular determinants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Joukje Siebenga

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Noroviruses are the most common cause of viral gastroenteritis. An increase in the number of globally reported norovirus outbreaks was seen the past decade, especially for outbreaks caused by successive genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4 variants. Whether this observed increase was due to an upswing in the number of infections, or to a surveillance artifact caused by heightened awareness and concomitant improved reporting, remained unclear. Therefore, we set out to study the population structure and changes thereof of GII.4 strains detected through systematic outbreak surveillance since the early 1990s. We collected 1383 partial polymerase and 194 full capsid GII.4 sequences. A Bayesian MCMC coalescent analysis revealed an increase in the number of GII.4 infections during the last decade. The GII.4 strains included in our analyses evolved at a rate of 4.3-9.0x10(-3 mutations per site per year, and share a most recent common ancestor in the early 1980s. Determinants of adaptation in the capsid protein were studied using different maximum likelihood approaches to identify sites subject to diversifying or directional selection and sites that co-evolved. While a number of the computationally determined adaptively evolving sites were on the surface of the capsid and possible subject to immune selection, we also detected sites that were subject to constrained or compensatory evolution due to secondary RNA structures, relevant in virus-replication. We highlight codons that may prove useful in identifying emerging novel variants, and, using these, indicate that the novel 2008 variant is more likely to cause a future epidemic than the 2007 variant. While norovirus infections are generally mild and self-limiting, more severe outcomes of infection frequently occur in elderly and immunocompromized people, and no treatment is available. The observed pattern of continually emerging novel variants of GII.4, causing elevated numbers of infections, is therefore a

  5. Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences and the PCR to generate fingerprints of genomic DNAs from Vibrio cholerae O1, O139, and non-O1 strains.

    OpenAIRE

    Rivera, I G; Chowdhury, M A; Huq, A; Jacobs, D; Martins, M T; Colwell, R R

    1995-01-01

    Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) sequence polymorphism was studied in Vibrio Cholerae strains isolated before and after the cholera epidemic in Brazil (in 1991), along with epidemic strains from Peru, Mexico, and India, by PCR. A total of 17 fingerprint patterns (FPs) were detected in the V. cholerae strains examined; 96.7% of the toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains and 100% of the O139 serogroup strains were found to belong to the same FP group comprising four fragments (F...

  6. Acute Hepatopancreatic Necrosis Disease-Causing Vibrio parahaemolyticus Strains Maintain an Antibacterial Type VI Secretion System with Versatile Effector Repertoires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Kinch, Lisa N; Ray, Ann; Dalia, Ankur B; Cong, Qian; Nunan, Linda M; Camilli, Andrew; Grishin, Nick V; Salomon, Dor; Orth, Kim

    2017-07-01

    Acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND) is a newly emerging shrimp disease that has severely damaged the global shrimp industry. AHPND is caused by toxic strains of Vibrio parahaemolyticus that have acquired a "selfish plasmid" encoding the deadly binary toxins PirA vp /PirB vp To better understand the repertoire of virulence factors in AHPND-causing V. parahaemolyticus , we conducted a comparative analysis using the genome sequences of the clinical strain RIMD2210633 and of environmental non-AHPND and toxic AHPND isolates of V. parahaemolyticus Interestingly, we found that all of the AHPND strains, but none of the non-AHPND strains, harbor the antibacterial type VI secretion system 1 (T6SS1), which we previously identified and characterized in the clinical isolate RIMD2210633. This finding suggests that the acquisition of this T6SS might confer to AHPND-causing V. parahaemolyticus a fitness advantage over competing bacteria and facilitate shrimp infection. Additionally, we found highly dynamic effector loci in the T6SS1 of AHPND-causing strains, leading to diverse effector repertoires. Our discovery provides novel insights into AHPND-causing pathogens and reveals a potential target for disease control. IMPORTANCE Acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND) is a serious disease that has caused severe damage and significant financial losses to the global shrimp industry. To better understand and prevent this shrimp disease, it is essential to thoroughly characterize its causative agent, Vibrio parahaemolyticus Although the plasmid-encoded binary toxins PirA vp /PirB vp have been shown to be the primary cause of AHPND, it remains unknown whether other virulent factors are commonly present in V. parahaemolyticus and might play important roles during shrimp infection. Here, we analyzed the genome sequences of clinical, non-AHPND, and AHPND strains to characterize their repertoires of key virulence determinants. Our studies reveal that an antibacterial type

  7. Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping; Gong Yong-Wang

    2013-01-01

    In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR-SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 − p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively. (general)

  8. Epidemiology and vaccine of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in China: a mini-review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Dongbo; Wang, Xinyu; Wei, Shan; Chen, Jianfei; Feng, Li

    2016-03-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV); manifestations of the disease are diarrhea, vomiting and dehydration. Starting from the end of 2010, a PED outbreak occurred in several pig-producing provinces in southern China. Subsequently, the disease spread throughout the country and caused enormous economic losses to the pork industry. Accumulating studies demonstrated that new PEDV variants that appeared in China were responsible for the PED outbreak. In the current mini-review, we summarize PEDV epidemiology and vaccination in China.

  9. Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Napp

    Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

  10. Susceptibility of Ae. aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to infection with epidemic (subtype IC) and enzootic (subtypes ID, IIIC, IIID) Venezuelan equine encephalitis complex alphaviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Diana I; Kang, Wenli; Weaver, Scoti C

    2008-11-01

    To test the hypothesis that enzootic and epidemic Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) complex alphaviruses can infect and be transmitted by Ae. aegypti, we conducted a series of experimental infection studies. One set of experiments tested the susceptibility of geographic strains of Ae. aegypti from Peru and Texas (U.S.A.) for epidemic (subtype IC) and enzootic (subtype ID) strains from Colombia/Venezuela, whereas the second set of experiments tested the susceptibility of Ae. aegypti from Iquitos, Peru, to enzootic VEE complex strains (subtypes ID, IIIC, and IIID) isolated in the same region, at different infectious doses. Experimental infections using artificial bloodmeals suggested that Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, particularly the strain from Iquitos, Peru, is moderately to highly susceptible to all of these VEE complex alphaviruses. The occurrence of enzootic VEE complex viruses circulating endemically in Iquitos suggests the possibility of a dengue-like transmission cycle among humans in tropical cities.

  11. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  12. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  13. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  14. Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J F

    2001-01-01

    St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

  15. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  16. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  17. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

    2016-12-01

    We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

  18. Implication of lateral genetic transfer in the emergence of Aeromonas hydrophila isolates of epidemic outbreaks in channel catfish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad J Hossain

    Full Text Available To investigate the molecular basis of the emergence of Aeromonas hydrophila responsible for an epidemic outbreak of motile aeromonad septicemia of catfish in the Southeastern United States, we sequenced 11 A. hydrophila isolates that includes five reference and six recent epidemic isolates. Comparative genomics revealed that recent epidemic A. hydrophila isolates are highly clonal, whereas reference isolates are greatly diverse. We identified 55 epidemic-associated genetic regions with 313 predicted genes that are present in epidemic isolates but absent from reference isolates and 35% of these regions are located within genomic islands, suggesting their acquisition through lateral gene transfer. The epidemic-associated regions encode predicted prophage elements, pathogenicity islands, metabolic islands, fitness islands and genes of unknown functions, and 34 of the genes encoded in these regions were predicted as virulence factors. We found two pilus biogenesis gene clusters encoded within predicted pathogenicity islands. A functional metabolic island that encodes a complete pathway for myo-inositol catabolism was evident by the ability of epidemic A. hydrophila isolates to use myo-inositol as a sole carbon source. Testing of A. hydrophila field isolates found a consistent correlation between myo-inositol utilization as a sole carbon source and the presence of an epidemic-specific genetic marker. All epidemic isolates and one reference isolate shared a novel O-antigen cluster. Altogether we identified four different O-antigen biosynthesis gene clusters within the 11 sequenced A. hydrophila genomes. Our study reveals new insights into the evolutionary changes that have resulted in the emergence of recent epidemic A. hydrophila strains.

  19. Phylogenetic analysis of canine distemper virus in South America clade 1 reveals unique molecular signatures of the local epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Cristine D B; Gräf, Tiago; Ikuta, Nilo; Lehmann, Fernanda K M; Passos, Daniel T; Makiejczuk, Aline; Silveira, Marcos A T; Fonseca, André S K; Canal, Cláudio W; Lunge, Vagner R

    2016-07-01

    Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious pathogen for domestic dogs and several wild carnivore species. In Brazil, natural infection of CDV in dogs is very high due to the large non-vaccinated dog population, a scenario that calls for new studies on the molecular epidemiology. This study investigates the phylodynamics and amino-acid signatures of CDV epidemic in South America by analyzing a large dataset compiled from publicly available sequences and also by collecting new samples from Brazil. A population of 175 dogs with canine distemper (CD) signs was sampled, from which 89 were positive for CDV, generating 42 new CDV sequences. Phylogenetic analysis of the new and publicly available sequences revealed that Brazilian sequences mainly clustered in South America 1 (SA1) clade, which has its origin estimated to the late 1980's. The reconstruction of the demographic history in SA1 clade showed an epidemic expanding until the recent years, doubling in size every nine years. SA1 clade epidemic distinguished from the world CDV epidemic by the emergence of the R580Q strain, a very rare and potentially detrimental substitution in the viral genome. The R580Q substitution was estimated to have happened in one single evolutionary step in the epidemic history in SA1 clade, emerging shortly after introduction to the continent. Moreover, a high prevalence (11.9%) of the Y549H mutation was observed among the domestic dogs sampled here. This finding was associated (p<0.05) with outcome-death and higher frequency in mixed-breed dogs, the later being an indicator of a continuous exchange of CDV strains circulating among wild carnivores and domestic dogs. The results reported here highlight the diversity of the worldwide CDV epidemic and reveal local features that can be valuable for combating the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. [Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

    2000-02-01

    Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

  1. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Nosocomial epidemic of Serratia marcescens septicemia ascribed to contaminated blood transfusion bags

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heltberg, Ole; Skov, F; Gerner-Smidt, P

    1993-01-01

    isolates was performed. For comparison, a strain from the production plant and eight other, unrelated bacteremia isolates were examined. In addition, a retrospective national survey was carried out. S. marcescens was cultured from 11 (0.73%) of 1515 blood units, and an additional (third) bacteremic patient...... was identified. The clinical isolates from three patients, the three units of blood transfused, and the plant-derived strain shared a unique ribotype. The incident is interpreted as a sporadic, bacterial contamination of blood bags with the S. marcescens epidemic strain, occurring during the manufacturing...... or packaging. A similar incident has not previously been reported. Attention is drawn to the possibility of significant contamination during the complex production of multiple-bag blood collection systems. Guidelines for improved registration and handling of transfusion complications in wards are suggested...

  3. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  4. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  5. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  6. Horizontal antimicrobial resistance transfer drives epidemics of multiple Shigella species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kate S; Dallman, Timothy J; Field, Nigel; Childs, Tristan; Mitchell, Holly; Day, Martin; Weill, François-Xavier; Lefèvre, Sophie; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Hughes, Gwenda; Jenkins, Claire; Thomson, Nicholas

    2018-04-13

    Horizontal gene transfer has played a role in developing the global public health crisis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, the dynamics of AMR transfer through bacterial populations and its direct impact on human disease is poorly elucidated. Here, we study parallel epidemic emergences of multiple Shigella species, a priority AMR organism, in men who have sex with men to gain insight into AMR emergence and spread. Using genomic epidemiology, we show that repeated horizontal transfer of a single AMR plasmid among Shigella enhanced existing and facilitated new epidemics. These epidemic patterns contrasted with slighter, slower increases in disease caused by organisms with vertically inherited (chromosomally encoded) AMR. This demonstrates that horizontal transfer of AMR directly affects epidemiological outcomes of globally important AMR pathogens and highlights the need for integration of genomic analyses into all areas of AMR research, surveillance and management.

  7. Variation in genotype and higher virulence of a strain of Sporothrix schenckii causing disseminated cutaneous sporotrichosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhenying; Liu, Xiaoming; Lv, Xuelian; Lin, Jingrong

    2011-12-01

    Sporotrichosis is usually a localized, lymphocutaneous disease, but its disseminated type was rarely reported. The main objective of this study was to identify specific DNA sequence variation and virulence of a strain of Sporothrix schenckii isolated from the lesion of disseminated cutaneous sporotrichosis. We confirmed this strain to be S. schenckii by(®) tubulin and chitin synthase gene sequence analysis in addition to the routine mycological and partial ITS and NTS sequencing. We found a 10-bp deletion in the ribosomal NTS region of this strain, in reference to the sequence of control strains isolated from fixed cutaneous sporotrichosis. After inoculated into immunosuppressed mice, this strain caused more extensive system involvement and showed stronger virulence than the control strain isolated from a fixed cutaneous sporotrichosis. Our study thus suggests that different clinical manifestation of sporotrichosis may be associated with variation in genotype and virulence of the strain, independent of effects due to the immune status of the host.

  8. Differences in Acinetobacter baumannii strains and host innate immune response determine morbidity and mortality in experimental pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna de Breij

    Full Text Available Despite many reports documenting its epidemicity, little is known on the interaction of Acinetobacter baumannii with its host. To deepen our insight into this relationship, we studied persistence of and host response to different A. baumannii strains including representatives of the European (EU clones I-III in a mouse pneumonia model. Neutropenic mice were inoculated intratracheally with five A. baumannii strains and an A. junii strain and at several days morbidity, mortality, bacterial counts, airway inflammation, and chemo- and cytokine production in lungs and blood were determined. A. baumannii RUH875 and RUH134 (EU clone I and II, respectively and sporadic strain LUH8326 resulted in high morbidity/mortality, whereas A. baumannii LUH5875 (EU clone III, which is less widespread than clone I and II caused less symptoms. A. baumannii type strain RUH3023(T and A. junii LUH5851 did not cause disease. All strains, except A. baumannii RUH3023(T and A. junii LUH5851, survived and multiplied in the lungs for several days. Morbidity and mortality were associated with the severity of lung pathology and a specific immune response characterized by low levels of anti-inflammatory (IL-10 and specific pro-inflammatory (IL-12p40 and IL-23 cytokines at the first day of infection. Altogether, a striking difference in behaviour among the A. baumannii strains was observed with the clone I and II strains being most virulent, whereas the A. baumannii type strain, which is frequently used in virulence studies appeared harmless.

  9. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  10. Characterization of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) pups during and after the epidemics on Enderby Island, Auckland Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castinel, Aurélie; Grinberg, Alex; Pattison, Rebecca; Duignan, Pádraig; Pomroy, Bill; Rogers, Lynn; Wilkinson, Ian

    2007-05-16

    The 2001/2002 and 2002/2003 breeding seasons of New Zealand sea lions (NZSLs) on the Auckland Islands were marked by a high pup mortality caused by acute bacterial infections. As part of a health survey from 1998/1999 to 2004/2005, tissues and swabs of lesions had been collected at necropsy to identify the bacteria associated with pup mortality. Klebsiella pneumoniae was grown in pure culture from 83% of various organs and lesions in 2001/2002 and 76% in 2002/2003, and less frequently in the following seasons (56% in 2003/2004 and 49% in 2004/2005). Pup isolates of K. pneumoniae showed identical minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) of cefuroxime, neomycin, cephalotin, cephalexin and dihydrostreptomycin, suggesting clonal aetiology of the pathogen. Isolates also tested negative for production of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs), which was not in favour of an anthropogenetic origin of the epidemic strain. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) of XbaI DNA macrorestriction fragments was performed on isolates of K. pneumoniae and Klebsiella oxytoca from 35 pups, thee NZSL adult females, and from three human patients for comparison. PFGE showed that pup isolates of K. pneumoniae were genetically indistinguishable but were neither related to K. pneumoniae from humans and from NZSL adults, nor to K. oxytoca from NZSLs. It is concluded that the 2001/2002 and 2002/2003 epidemics at Sandy Bay rookery were caused by a single K. pneumoniae clonal lineage, genetically different from the strain carried by adult NZSLs. An anthropogenic origin of the K. pneumoniae clone could not be confirmed, but further investigations are required to rule-out such occurrence.

  11. [A large-scale epidemic of diphtheria in Moscow in recent years: patterns of development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chistiakova, G G; Filatov, N N; Korzhenkova, M P; Solodovnikov, Iu P; Lytkina, I N; Maksimova, N M; Markina, S S

    2001-01-01

    Data on the dynamics of diphtheria morbidity in Moscow in 1958-1999 are presented. The last epidemic which started at the end of the 1980s and reached its peak in 1994, giving a 59-fold rise in morbidity in comparison with the pre-epidemic period, is characterized in detail. During the epidemic 12,267 persons fell ill, 454 of them died (mortality rate was 4%). Having started in Moscow, the epidemic gradually spread not only over the territory of Russia, but also over some other republics of the former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus, etc.). Possible causes of this epidemic emergency are considered. The ever increasing share of adult population among persons affected by the epidemic (75%) is noted. The infection adults is characterized by severity of clinical manifestations and increased morbidity among adults, is shown. Under complicated social and economic conditions (crisis situation) the increase of groups of high risk which included unemployed adults of working age, retirees as well as socially non-adapted persons, was registered. Mainly these groups determined tense epidemiological situation in diphtheria in Moscow.

  12. Non-toxigenic environmental Vibrio cholerae O1 strain from Haiti provides evidence of pre-pandemic cholera in Hispaniola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarian, Taj; Ali, Afsar; Johnson, Judith A.; Jubair, Mohammad; Cella, Eleonora; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Nolan, David J.; Farmerie, William; Rashid, Mohammad H.; Sinha-Ray, Shrestha; Alam, Meer T.; Morris, J. Glenn; Salemi, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae is ubiquitous in aquatic environments, with environmental toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains serving as a source for recurrent cholera epidemics and pandemic disease. However, a number of questions remain about long-term survival and evolution of V. cholerae strains within these aquatic environmental reservoirs. Through monitoring of the Haitian aquatic environment following the 2010 cholera epidemic, we isolated two novel non-toxigenic (ctxA/B-negative) Vibrio cholerae O1. These two isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing and were investigated through comparative genomics and Bayesian coalescent analysis. These isolates cluster in the evolutionary tree with strains responsible for clinical cholera, possessing genomic components of 6th and 7th pandemic lineages, and diverge from “modern” cholera strains around 1548 C.E. [95% HPD: 1532–1555]. Vibrio Pathogenicity Island (VPI)-1 was present; however, SXT/R391-family ICE and VPI-2 were absent. Rugose phenotype conversion and vibriophage resistance evidenced adaption for persistence in aquatic environments. The identification of V. cholerae O1 strains in the Haitian environment, which predate the first reported cholera pandemic in 1817, broadens our understanding of the history of pandemics. It also raises the possibility that these and similar environmental strains could acquire virulence genes from the 2010 Haitian epidemic clone, including the cholera toxin producing CTXϕ. PMID:27786291

  13. Cardiovascular disease: A Global Epidemic extending into Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Cardiovascular disease is a global epidemic; the prevalence is currently stable in the developed world but is on a rapid rise in the developing world particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the commonest cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Its victims are older in the developed world but younger in Africa ...

  14. Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Pan-genome analysis of Senegalese and Gambian strains of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mbaye

    2016-11-09

    Nov 9, 2016 ... 1National Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases (LNERV ... and Rickettssiology, Faculty for Sciences and Technology - Dakar ... stability of its spores, the high level pathogenicity and ... with an anthrax epidemic through an atmospheric .... Characteristics of Bacillus anthracis strains (samples). Code.

  16. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  17. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  18. Enterococcus faecium strains characterization through polymorphism study of VNTR loci

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belteghi, C.,

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Enterococci are commensally bacteria of the gastrointestinal and female genital tract in humans and some mammals and birds, and one of the significant causes of hospital-acquired infections, especially in immuno-compromised patients. Genetic fingerprinting (DNA fingerprinting is a tool for identifying, marking and prevention of infectious agents dissemination. SSR (short sequence repeat are known to suffer frequent variations in the number of repetitive units.MLVA (multiple locus variable number tandem repeats analysis is a variant of genetic fingerprinting, in epidemiological studies on the pathogenetic Enterococcus faecium. Our study included laboratory Enterococcus faecium strains or isolated from clinical cases or from the environment (2003-2008. All analyzed strains of Enterococcus faecium were sensitive to vancomycin, except BM4147, and resistant to oxacilin. Strains isolated from the birds’ samples have shown a smaller resistance profile than those of human origin. 33 Enterococus faecium strains were analyzed by PCR amplification. 27 MT (VNTR profiles were obtained: six in the case of the strains isolated from birds, 15 in the case of the strains isolated form humans, 4 in the case of the collection strains and 2 in the case of the strains isolated from water samples. Among the strains isolated from humans and those isolated from animals, identical profiles were not recorded. Within the strains isolated from clinical cases, and those isolated from birds, circulating genotypes were noted, which can be considered as epidemical. The strains used as probiotics proved to be different from those circulating in birds. All MLVA profiles codes compared with those published on line in the UMC Utrecht database proved to be different. Results obtained in this study support the usefulness of the polymorphic VNTR analysis, as genetic marker, inepidemiological investigations.

  19. Increases in absenteeism among health care workers in Hong Kong during influenza epidemics, 2004-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ip, Dennis K M; Lau, Eric H Y; Tam, Yat Hung; So, Hau Chi; Cowling, Benjamin J; Kwok, Henry K H

    2015-12-29

    Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of sickness absenteeism among health care workers (HCWs) and contribute significantly to overall productivity loss particularly during influenza epidemics. The purpose of this study is to quantify the increases in absenteeism during epidemics including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. We analysed administrative data to determine patterns of sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong from January 2004 through December 2009, and used multivariable linear regression model to estimate the excess all-cause and ARI-related sickness absenteeism rates during influenza epidemics. We found that influenza epidemics prior to the 2009 pandemic and during the 2009 pandemic were associated with 8.4 % (95 % CI: 5.6-11.2 %) and 57.7 % (95 % CI: 54.6-60.9 %) increases in overall sickness absence, and 26.5 % (95 % CI: 21.4-31.5 %) and 90.9 % (95 % CI: 85.2-96.6 %) increases in ARI-related sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong, respectively. Comparing different staff types, increases in overall absenteeism were highest among medical staff, during seasonal influenza epidemic periods (51.3 %, 95 % CI: 38.9-63.7 %) and the pandemic mitigation period (142.1 %, 95 % CI: 128.0-156.1 %). Influenza epidemics were associated with a substantial increase in sickness absence and productivity loss among HCWs in Hong Kong, and there was a much higher rate of absenteeism during the 2009 pandemic. These findings could inform better a more proactive workforce redistribution plans to allow for sufficient surge capacity in annual epidemics, and for pandemic preparedness.

  20. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  1. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  2. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  3. Clinical aspects of a nationwide epidemic of severe haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS in children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gudmundsdottir Helga

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Report a nationwide epidemic of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC O103:H25 causing hemolytic uremic syndrome (D+HUS in children. Methods Description of clinical presentation, complications and outcome in a nationwide outbreak. Results Ten children (median age 4.3 years developed HUS during the outbreak. One of these was presumed to be a part of the outbreak without microbiological proof. Eight of the patients were oligoanuric and in need of dialysis. Median need for dialysis was 15 days; one girl did not regain renal function and received a kidney transplant. Four patients had seizures and/or reduced consciousness. Cerebral oedema and herniation caused the death of a 4-year-old boy. Two patients developed necrosis of colon with perforation and one of them developed non-autoimmune diabetes. Conclusion This outbreak of STEC was characterized by a high incidence of HUS among the infected children, and many developed severe renal disease and extrarenal complications. A likely explanation is that the O103:H25 (eae and stx2-positive strain was highly pathogen, and we suggest that this serotype should be looked for in patients with HUS caused by STEC, especially in severe forms or outbreaks.

  4. [Persistence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains in patients of Federal Scientific Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avetisian, L R; Voronina, O L; Chernukha, M Iu; Kunda, M S; Gabrielian, N I; Lunin, V G; Shaginian, I A

    2012-01-01

    Study genetic diversity of P. aeruginosa strains persisting in patients of Federal Scientific Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs, and main factors facilitating persistence of strains in the hospital. 136 P. aeruginosa strains isolated from patients of the center for 3 years 6 months were genotyped by RAPD-PCR and MLST methods and studied for antibiotics resistance and presence of integrons. Genetic diversity of strains persisting in hospital was established. Strains of main genotypes ST235, ST446, ST598 were isolated from patients of various surgical departments. Patients were shown to be colonized by these strains during stay in reanimation and intensive therapy department (RITD) of the hospital. Strains of dominant genotype 235 were isolated from 47% of examined patients during more than 3 years. Only genotype 235 strains contained integron with cassettes of antibiotics resistance genes blaGES5 and aadA6 in the genome. The data obtained show that over the period of observation in the center 1 clone of P. aeruginosa that belonged to genotype 235 dominated. This clone was endemic for this hospital and in the process of prolonged persistence became more resistant to antibiotics. Colonization of patients with these strains occurs in RITD. This confirms the necessity of constant monitoring of hospital microflora for advance detection of potentially dangerous epidemic hospital strains able to cause hospital infections.

  5. Emergence of wheat blast in Bangladesh was caused by a South American lineage of Magnaporthe oryzae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M Tofazzal; Croll, Daniel; Gladieux, Pierre; Soanes, Darren M; Persoons, Antoine; Bhattacharjee, Pallab; Hossain, Md Shaid; Gupta, Dipali Rani; Rahman, Md Mahbubur; Mahboob, M Golam; Cook, Nicola; Salam, Moin U; Surovy, Musrat Zahan; Sancho, Vanessa Bueno; Maciel, João Leodato Nunes; NhaniJúnior, Antonio; Castroagudín, Vanina Lilián; Reges, Juliana T de Assis; Ceresini, Paulo Cezar; Ravel, Sebastien; Kellner, Ronny; Fournier, Elisabeth; Tharreau, Didier; Lebrun, Marc-Henri; McDonald, Bruce A; Stitt, Timothy; Swan, Daniel; Talbot, Nicholas J; Saunders, Diane G O; Win, Joe; Kamoun, Sophien

    2016-10-03

    In February 2016, a new fungal disease was spotted in wheat fields across eight districts in Bangladesh. The epidemic spread to an estimated 15,000 hectares, about 16 % of the cultivated wheat area in Bangladesh, with yield losses reaching up to 100 %. Within weeks of the onset of the epidemic, we performed transcriptome sequencing of symptomatic leaf samples collected directly from Bangladeshi fields. Reinoculation of seedlings with strains isolated from infected wheat grains showed wheat blast symptoms on leaves of wheat but not rice. Our phylogenomic and population genomic analyses revealed that the wheat blast outbreak in Bangladesh was most likely caused by a wheat-infecting South American lineage of the blast fungus Magnaporthe oryzae. Our findings suggest that genomic surveillance can be rapidly applied to monitor plant disease outbreaks and provide valuable information regarding the identity and origin of the infectious agent.

  6. Progenitor “Mycobacterium canettii” clone responsible for lymph node tuberculosis epidemic, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blouin, Yann; Cazajous, Géraldine; Dehan, Céline; Soler, Charles; Vong, Rithy; Hassan, Mohamed Osman; Hauck, Yolande; Boulais, Christian; Andriamanantena, Dina; Martinaud, Christophe; Martin, Émilie; Pourcel, Christine; Vergnaud, Gilles

    2014-01-01

    “Mycobacterium canettii,” an opportunistic human pathogen living in an unknown environmental reservoir, is the progenitor species from which Mycobacterium tuberculosis emerged. Since its discovery in 1969, most of the ≈70 known M. canettii strains were isolated in the Republic of Djibouti, frequently from expatriate children and adults. We show here, by whole-genome sequencing, that most strains collected from February 2010 through March 2013, and associated with 2 outbreaks of lymph node tuberculosis in children, belong to a unique epidemic clone within M. canettii. Evolution of this clone, which has been recovered regularly since 1983, may mimic the birth of M. tuberculosis. Thus, recognizing this organism and identifying its reservoir are clinically important.

  7. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  8. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea in Europe: In-Detail Analyses of Disease Dynamics and Molecular Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanke, Dennis; Pohlmann, Anne; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Höper, Dirk; Stadler, Julia; Ritzmann, Mathias; Steinrigl, Adi; Schwarz, Bernd-Andreas; Akimkin, Valerij; Fux, Robert; Blome, Sandra; Beer, Martin

    2017-07-06

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is an acute and highly contagious enteric disease of swine caused by the eponymous virus (PEDV) which belongs to the genus Alphacoronavirus within the Coronaviridae virus family. Following the disastrous outbreaks in Asia and the United States, PEDV has been detected also in Europe. In order to better understand the overall situation, the molecular epidemiology, and factors that might influence the most variable disease impact; 40 samples from swine feces were collected from different PED outbreaks in Germany and other European countries and sequenced by shot-gun next-generation sequencing. A total of 38 new PEDV complete coding sequences were generated. When compared on a global scale, all investigated sequences from Central and South-Eastern Europe formed a rather homogeneous PEDV S INDEL cluster, suggesting a recent re-introduction. However, in-detail analyses revealed two new clusters and putative ancestor strains. Based on the available background data, correlations between clusters and location, farm type or clinical presentation could not be established. Additionally, the impact of secondary infections was explored using the metagenomic data sets. While several coinfections were observed, no correlation was found with disease courses. However, in addition to the PEDV genomes, ten complete viral coding sequences from nine different data sets were reconstructed each representing new virus strains. In detail, three pasivirus A strains, two astroviruses, a porcine sapelovirus, a kobuvirus, a porcine torovirus, a posavirus, and an enterobacteria phage were almost fully sequenced.

  9. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea in Europe: In-Detail Analyses of Disease Dynamics and Molecular Epidemiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Hanke

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED is an acute and highly contagious enteric disease of swine caused by the eponymous virus (PEDV which belongs to the genus Alphacoronavirus within the Coronaviridae virus family. Following the disastrous outbreaks in Asia and the United States, PEDV has been detected also in Europe. In order to better understand the overall situation, the molecular epidemiology, and factors that might influence the most variable disease impact; 40 samples from swine feces were collected from different PED outbreaks in Germany and other European countries and sequenced by shot-gun next-generation sequencing. A total of 38 new PEDV complete coding sequences were generated. When compared on a global scale, all investigated sequences from Central and South-Eastern Europe formed a rather homogeneous PEDV S INDEL cluster, suggesting a recent re-introduction. However, in-detail analyses revealed two new clusters and putative ancestor strains. Based on the available background data, correlations between clusters and location, farm type or clinical presentation could not be established. Additionally, the impact of secondary infections was explored using the metagenomic data sets. While several coinfections were observed, no correlation was found with disease courses. However, in addition to the PEDV genomes, ten complete viral coding sequences from nine different data sets were reconstructed each representing new virus strains. In detail, three pasivirus A strains, two astroviruses, a porcine sapelovirus, a kobuvirus, a porcine torovirus, a posavirus, and an enterobacteria phage were almost fully sequenced.

  10. Evaluation of strain caused by coherent precipitates in an Al alloy using TEM techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Rivera, J.L., E-mail: jose.hernandez@cimav.edu.mx [Centro de Investigacion en Materiales Avanzados (CIMAV), Laboratorio Nacional de Nanotecnologia, Miguel de Cervantes 120, Z.C. 31109, Chihuahua (Mexico); Universidad del Valle de Mexico, Robles 600, Fraccionamiento Jacarandas, Z. C. 78220, San Luis Potosi (Mexico); Rivera, J.J. Cruz; Garay-Reyes, C.G.; Azpeitia, M. Ramos; Zuniga-Alonso, I. [Facultad de Ingenieria-Instituto de Metalurgia, Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi, Sierra Leona 550, Lomas 2a seccion, Z.C. 78210, San Luis Potosi (Mexico); Martinez-Sanchez, R. [Centro de Investigacion en Materiales Avanzados (CIMAV), Laboratorio Nacional de Nanotecnologia, Miguel de Cervantes 120, Z.C. 31109, Chihuahua (Mexico)

    2012-11-15

    Elastic strains, caused by GP zones in an aged Al alloy, were determined quantitatively using two techniques: Dark Field In-line Holography (DFH) and High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy-Geometric Phase Analysis (HRTEM-GPA). The results obtained by both techniques showed that the elastic strain was not uniform along the precipitate-matrix interface. In some areas, it was found that strain had negligible value and this was attributed to the loss of coherence between the lattices. It is suggested that a possible explanation for this fact could be a variation in the 'vacancies pump mechanism' kinetics. To obtain a better interpretation of the experimental deformation maps, a reference GP precipitate-matrix structure was built using QSTEM software. The main advantages of DFH over HRTEM-GPA were a bigger field of view and low electron dose requirements without spatial resolution loss. Another difference found was that crystalline defects such as dislocations were evidenced by HRTEM-GPA in contrast to the result obtained by DFH. However, strain measurements were affected by mask size effect in the former. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Strain around GP precipitates was not uniform and was in a more relaxed state. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Strain values determined by HRTEM had more artifacts compared with holography ones. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Strain distribution was attributed to differences in the release of vacancies. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Holography showed important advantages over HRTEM regarding field of view mainly.

  11. Evaluation of strain caused by coherent precipitates in an Al alloy using TEM techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernández-Rivera, J.L.; Rivera, J.J. Cruz; Garay-Reyes, C.G.; Azpeitia, M. Ramos; Zúñiga-Alonso, I.; Martínez-Sánchez, R.

    2012-01-01

    Elastic strains, caused by GP zones in an aged Al alloy, were determined quantitatively using two techniques: Dark Field In-line Holography (DFH) and High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy-Geometric Phase Analysis (HRTEM-GPA). The results obtained by both techniques showed that the elastic strain was not uniform along the precipitate–matrix interface. In some areas, it was found that strain had negligible value and this was attributed to the loss of coherence between the lattices. It is suggested that a possible explanation for this fact could be a variation in the “vacancies pump mechanism” kinetics. To obtain a better interpretation of the experimental deformation maps, a reference GP precipitate–matrix structure was built using QSTEM software. The main advantages of DFH over HRTEM-GPA were a bigger field of view and low electron dose requirements without spatial resolution loss. Another difference found was that crystalline defects such as dislocations were evidenced by HRTEM-GPA in contrast to the result obtained by DFH. However, strain measurements were affected by mask size effect in the former. - Highlights: ► Strain around GP precipitates was not uniform and was in a more relaxed state. ► Strain values determined by HRTEM had more artifacts compared with holography ones. ► Strain distribution was attributed to differences in the release of vacancies. ► Holography showed important advantages over HRTEM regarding field of view mainly.

  12. Molecular Identification and Genetic Characterization of Macrophomina phaseolina Strains Causing Pathogenicity on Sunflower and Chickpea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali N. Khan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Macrophomina phaseolina is the most devastating pathogen which causes charcoal rot and root rot diseases in various economically important crops. Three strains M. phaseolina 1156, M. phaseolina 1160, and M. phaseolina PCMC/F1 were tested for their virulence on sunflower (Helianthus annuus L. and chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.. The strains showed high virulence on both hosts with a disease score of 2 on chickpea and sunflower. The strains also increased the hydrogen per oxide (H2O2 content by 1.4- to 1.6-fold in root as well as shoot of chickpea and sunflower. A significant increase in antioxidant enzymes was observed in fungal infected plants which indicated prevalence of oxidative stress during pathogen propagation. The M. phaseolina strains also produced hydrolytic enzymes such as lipase, amylase, and protease with solubilization zone of 5–43 mm, 5–45 mm, and 12–35 mm, respectively. The M. phaseolina strains were identified by 18S rRNA and analyzed for genetic diversity by using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD markers. The findings based on RAPD markers and 18S rRNA sequence analysis clearly indicate genetic variation among the strains collected from different hosts. The genetically diverse strains were found to be pathogenic to sunflower and chickpea.

  13. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  14. High-frequency rugose exopolysaccharide production by Vibrio cholerae strains isolated in Haiti.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafizur Rahman

    Full Text Available In October, 2010, epidemic cholera was reported for the first time in Haiti in over 100 years. Establishment of cholera endemicity in Haiti will be dependent in large part on the continued presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in aquatic reservoirs. The rugose phenotype of V. cholerae, characterized by exopolysaccharide production that confers resistance to environmental stress, is a potential contributor to environmental persistence. Using a microbiologic medium promoting high-frequency conversion of smooth to rugose (S-R phenotype, 80 (46.5% of 172 V. cholerae strains isolated from clinical and environmental sources in Haiti were able to convert to a rugose phenotype. Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated at the beginning of the epidemic (2010 were significantly less likely to shift to a rugose phenotype than clinical strains isolated in 2012/2013, or environmental strains. Frequency of rugose conversion was influenced by incubation temperature and time. Appearance of the biofilm produced by a Haitian clinical rugose strain (altered biotype El Tor HC16R differed from that of a typical El Tor rugose strain (N16961R by confocal microscopy. On whole-genome SNP analysis, there was no phylogenetic clustering of strains showing an ability to shift to a rugose phenotype. Our data confirm the ability of Haitian clinical (and environmental strains to shift to a protective rugose phenotype, and suggest that factors such as temperature influence the frequency of transition to this phenotype.

  15. Eradication of the corrosion-causing bacterial strains Desulfovibrio vulgaris and Desulfovibrio desulfuricans using photodisinfection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Street, C.N.; Gibbs, A.J. [Biocorrosion Solutions Inc., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) can cause oil and gas pipelines to fail prematurely. The free-floating bacteria collects on the inner pipeline surface to form complex adherent biofilms. This study evaluated the use of photodisinfection as a means of treating 2 sulfate-reducing bacterial strains known to contribute to MIC. The sulfate-reducing strains Desulfovibrio vulgaris and Desulfovibrio desulfuricans were studied experimentally to a concentration of 10{sup 7} colony-forming units per millimeter. Bacterial inocula was made to an optical density of 0.150 at 420 nm in order to assess biofilm growth. The study showed that photodisinfection was able to eradicate more than 99 per cent of the bacterial populations prepared in the study. The method was highly effective in removing the biofilms known to cause MIC in oil and gas pipelines. A close-loop dynamic flow system model will be prepared to evaluate the ability of photodisinfection to inhibit bacterially-influenced corrosion of steel coupons. 24 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  16. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  17. Heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate susceptibility in a community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus epidemic clone, in a case of Infective Endocarditis in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vindel Ana

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-Associated Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA has traditionally been related to skin and soft tissue infections in healthy young patients. However, it has now emerged as responsible for severe infections worldwide, for which vancomycin is one of the mainstays of treatment. Infective endocarditis (IE due to CA-MRSA with heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate susceptibility-(h-VISA has been recently reported, associated to an epidemic USA 300 CA-MRSA clone. Case Presentation We describe the occurrence of h-VISA phenotype in a case of IE caused by a strain belonging to an epidemic CA-MRSA clone, distinct from USA300, for the first time in Argentina. The isolate h-VISA (SaB2 was recovered from a patient with persistent bacteraemia after a 7-day therapy with vancomycin, which evolved to fatal case of IE complicated with brain abscesses. The initial isolate-(SaB1 was fully vancomycin susceptible (VSSA. Although MRSA SaB2 was vancomycin susceptible (≤2 μg/ml by MIC (agar and broth dilution, E-test and VITEK 2, a slight increase of MIC values between SaB1 and SaB2 isolates was detected by the four MIC methods, particularly for teicoplanin. Moreover, Sab2 was classified as h-VISA by three different screening methods [MHA5T-screening agar, Macromethod-E-test-(MET and by GRD E-test] and confirmed by population analysis profile-(PAP. In addition, a significant increase in cell-wall thickness was revealed for SaB2 by electron microscopy. Molecular typing showed that both strains, SaB1 and SaB2, belonged to ST5 lineage, carried SCCmecIV, lacked Panton-Valentine leukocidin-(PVL genes and had indistinguishable PFGE patterns (subtype I2, thereby confirming their isogenic nature. In addition, they were clonally related to the epidemic CA-MRSA clone (pulsotype I detected in our country. Conclusions This report demonstrates the ability of this epidemic CA-MRSA clone, disseminated in some regions of Argentina, to

  18. [Epidemics and pandemics in general practice. What can we learn from the swine flu (H1N1) and EHEC outbreak?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisele, M; Hansen, H; Wagner, H-O; von Leitner, E; Pohontsch, N; Scherer, M

    2014-06-01

    As primary care givers with a coordinating function, general practitioners (GP) play a key role in dealing with epidemics and pandemics. As of yet, there are no studies in Germany describing the difficulties experienced by GPs in patient care during epidemics/pandemics. This study aimed at identifying the problem areas in GPs' patient care during the H1N1 and EHEC (enterohemorrhagic strain of Escherichia coli) outbreaks. With this information, recommendations for guaranteeing proper patient care during future epidemics/pandemics can be derived. In all, 12 qualitative, semi-structured, open guideline interviews with GPs in Hamburg and Lübeck were conducted, transcribed, and evaluated with qualitative content analysis. Five areas in ambulatory patient care were identified in which changes are needed from the primary care perspective: provision of information for GPs, workload, financing of epidemic-related measures, organization of the practices, care of those taken ill. The workload of GPs in particular can and should be reduced through successful, centralized information distribution during epidemics/pandemics. The GP's function as a coordinator should be supported and consolidated, in order to relieve the in-patient sector in cases of an epidemic/pandemic. Secured financing of epidemic-associated measures can help ensure patient care.

  19. Diarrhea, Urosepsis and Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome Caused by the Same Heteropathogenic Escherichia coli Strain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ang, C. Wim; Bouts, Antonia H. M.; Rossen, John W. A.; van der Kuip, Martijn; van Heerde, Marc; Bökenkamp, Arend

    2016-01-01

    We describe an 8-month-old girl with diarrhea, urosepsis and hemolytic uremic syndrome caused by Escherichia coli. Typing of cultured E. coli strains from urine and blood revealed the presence of virulence factors from multiple pathotypes of E. coli. This case exemplifies the genome plasticity of E.

  20. Vector Competence of American Mosquitoes for Three Strains of Zika Virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Weger-Lucarelli

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV; Flaviviridae; Flavivirus emerged in the Americas, causing millions of infections in dozens of countries. The rapid spread of the virus and the association with disease outcomes such as Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly make understanding transmission dynamics essential. Currently, there are no reports of vector competence (VC of American mosquitoes for ZIKV isolates from the Americas. Further, it is not clear whether ZIKV strains from other genetic lineages can be transmitted by American Aedes aegypti populations, and whether the scope of the current epidemic is in part facilitated by viral factors such as enhanced replicative fitness or increased vector competence. Therefore, we characterized replication of three ZIKV strains, one from each of the three phylogenetic clades in several cell lines and assessed their abilities to be transmitted by Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, laboratory colonies of different Culex spp. were infected with an American outbreak strain of ZIKV to assess VC. Replication rates were variable and depended on virus strain, cell line and MOI. African strains used in this study outcompeted the American strain in vitro in both mammalian and mosquito cell culture. West and East African strains of ZIKV tested here were more efficiently transmitted by Ae. aegypti from Mexico than was the currently circulating American strain of the Asian lineage. Long-established laboratory colonies of Culex mosquitoes were not efficient ZIKV vectors. These data demonstrate the capacity for additional ZIKV strains to infect and replicate in American Aedes mosquitoes and suggest that neither enhanced virus replicative fitness nor virus adaptation to local vector mosquitoes seems likely to explain the extent and intensity of ZIKV transmission in the Americas.

  1. Clostridium difficile chimeric toxin receptor binding domain vaccine induced protection against different strains in active and passive challenge models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jing-Hui; Glenn, Gregory; Flyer, David; Zhou, Bin; Liu, Ye; Sullivan, Eddie; Wu, Hua; Cummings, James F; Elllingsworth, Larry; Smith, Gale

    2017-07-24

    Clostridium difficile is the number one cause of nosocomial antibiotic-associated diarrhea in developed countries. Historically, pathogenesis was attributed two homologous glucosylating toxins, toxin-A (TcdA) and toxin-B (TcdB). Over the past decade, however, highly virulent epidemic strains of C. difficile (B1/NAP1/027) have emerged and are linked to an increase in morbidity and mortality. Increased virulence is attributed to multiple factors including: increased production of A- and B-toxins; production of binary toxin (CDT); and the emergence of more toxic TcdB variants (TcdB (027) ). TcdB (027) is more cytotoxicity to cells; causes greater tissue damage and toxicity in animals; and is antigenically distinct from historical TcdB (TcdB (003) ). Broadly protective vaccines and therapeutic antibody strategies, therefore, may target TcdA, TcdB variants and CDT. To facilitate the generation of multivalent toxin-based C. difficile vaccines and therapeutic antibodies, we have generated fusion proteins constructed from the receptor binding domains (RBD) of TcdA, TcdB (003) , TcdB (027) and CDT. Herein, we describe the development of a trivalent toxin (T-toxin) vaccine (CDTb/TcdB (003) /TcdA) and quadravalent toxin (Q-toxin) vaccine (CDTb/TcB (003) /TcdA/TcdB (027) ) fusion proteins that retain the protective toxin neutralizing epitopes. Active immunization of mice or hamsters with T-toxin or Q-toxin fusion protein vaccines elicited the generation of toxin neutralizing antibodies to each of the toxins. Hamsters immunized with the Q-toxin vaccine were broadly protected against spore challenge with historical C. difficile 630 (toxinotype 0/ribotype 003) and epidemic NAP1 (toxinotype III/ribotype 027) strains. Fully human polyclonal antitoxin IgG was produced by immunization of transgenic bovine with these fusion proteins. In passive transfer studies, mice were protected against lethal toxin challenge. Hamsters treated with human antitoxin IgG were completely protected when

  2. Influenza in Poland in 2013 and 2013/2014 epidemic season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondratiuk, Katarzyna; Czarkowski, Mirosław P; Hallmann-Szelińska, Ewelina; Staszewska, Ewa; Bednarska, Karolina; Cielebąk, Ewa; Brydak, Lidia B

    2016-01-01

    season. Type A influenza subtype H3N2 predominated in all influenza cases. Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was the dominant agent in other viral infections of respiratory tract. Antigenic analysis of influenza strains showed their affinity with vaccine strains of the vaccine recommended for this epidemic season. In spite of slow improvements, influenza and influenza-like surveillance system in Poland is still not homogeneous and stable enough. It hinders the assessment of current epidemiological situation. For instance, there are difficulties in determining what is the effect of modifications in the surveillance on the increase in the number of influenza and influenza-like cases observed in Poland in recent years. A low percentage of population vaccinated against influenza (with a decreasing trend beginning from 2005) suggests a necessity of revising the methods of promotion and organization of these vaccines used so far. One of the public health priorities should be to increase the percentage of vaccinated population up to the average level in EU countries.

  3. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  4. Genomic Variation and Evolution of Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST36 over the Course of a Transcontinental Epidemic Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Martinez-Urtaza

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the leading cause of seafood-related infections with illnesses undergoing a geographic expansion. In this process of expansion, the most fundamental change has been the transition from infections caused by local strains to the surge of pandemic clonal types. Pandemic clone sequence type 3 (ST3 was the only example of transcontinental spreading until 2012, when ST36 was detected outside the region where it is endemic in the U.S. Pacific Northwest causing infections along the U.S. northeast coast and Spain. Here, we used genome-wide analyses to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the V. parahaemolyticus ST36 clone over the course of its geographic expansion during the previous 25 years. The origin of this lineage was estimated to be in ~1985. By 1995, a new variant emerged in the region and quickly replaced the old clone, which has not been detected since 2000. The new Pacific Northwest (PNW lineage was responsible for the first cases associated with this clone outside the Pacific Northwest region. After several introductions into the northeast coast, the new PNW clone differentiated into a highly dynamic group that continues to cause illness on the northeast coast of the United States. Surprisingly, the strains detected in Europe in 2012 diverged from this ancestral group around 2000 and have conserved genetic features present only in the old PNW lineage. Recombination was identified as the major driver of diversification, with some preliminary observations suggesting a trend toward a more specialized lifestyle, which may represent a critical element in the expansion of epidemics under scenarios of coastal warming.

  5. Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah F. Ackley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data.

  6. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  7. Alkaline stabilization of manure slurry inactivates porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    The porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak in North America has substantially impacted swine production since it causes nearly 100% mortality in infected pre-weaned piglets. The PED virus is transmitted via the fecal oral route and manure may remain a source of reinfection; therefore, prop...

  8. [Epidemic situation and prevention and control strategy of clonorchiasis in Guangdong Province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo-Hui, Deng; Yue-Yi, Fang

    2016-05-24

    Clonorchiasis is one of the food-borne parasitic diseases. Adult parasites live in the human liver and gallbladder tube system, causing serious complications, such as gallstones, cholecystitis and cholangitis, and even bile duct cancer. The disease is very popular in our country, and the population infection rate is high. It is an important public health problem. Guangdong Province is the earliest province being found of clonorchiasis and with serious epidemic. In the second national human parasitic diseases distribution survey, the results showed that the average infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in the epidemic areas in Guangdong was 16.42%. It is estimated that the population of C. sinensis infection is over 6 million. The prevention and control of clonorchiasis in China is still in the initial stage currently and we face many challenges such as unclear epidemic characteristics and transmission mode, and lack of long-term prevention and control mechanism. This article introduces the epidemic situation of clonorchiasis and prevention and control strategies and measures in Guangdong.

  9. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  10. Beyond fast food and slow motion: weighty contributors to the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cizza, G; Rother, K I

    2012-02-01

    Decreased physical activity and marketing-driven increased consumption of "junk" food, dubbed "The Big Two", are generally regarded as the most important contributors to the obesity epidemic. However, the full picture contains many more pieces of the puzzle. We address several additional issues and review current clinical developments in obesity research. In spite of dramatic advancements in our understanding of the adipose organ and its endocrine and immune products, the ultimate causes of the obesity epidemic remain elusive. Treatment is plagued by poor adherence to life style modifications, and available pharmacological options are marginally effective, often also associated with major side effects. Surgical treatments, albeit effective in decreasing body weight, are invasive and expensive. Thus, our approaches to finding the causes, improving the existing treatments, and inventing novel therapies must be manifold.

  11. Public health interventions for epidemics: implications for multiple infection waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessel, Lindsay; Hua, Yi; Wu, Jianhong; Moghadas, Seyed M

    2011-02-25

    Epidemics with multiple infection waves have been documented for some human diseases, most notably during past influenza pandemics. While pathogen evolution, co-infection, and behavioural changes have been proposed as possible mechanisms for the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks, the effect of public health interventions remains undetermined. We develop mean-field and stochastic epidemiological models for disease transmission, and perform simulations to show how control measures, such as drug treatment and isolation of ill individuals, can influence the epidemic profile and generate sequences of infection waves with different characteristics. We demonstrate the impact of parameters representing the effectiveness and adverse consequences of intervention measures, such as treatment and emergence of drug resistance, on the spread of a pathogen in the population. If pathogen resistant strains evolve under drug pressure, multiple outbreaks are possible with variability in their characteristics, magnitude, and timing. In this context, the level of drug use and isolation capacity play an important role in the occurrence of subsequent outbreaks. Our simulations for influenza infection as a case study indicate that the intensive use of these interventions during the early stages of the epidemic could delay the spread of disease, but it may also result in later infection waves with possibly larger magnitudes. The findings highlight the importance of intervention parameters in the process of public health decision-making, and in evaluating control measures when facing substantial uncertainty regarding the epidemiological characteristics of an emerging infectious pathogen. Critical factors that influence population health including evolutionary responses of the pathogen under the pressure of different intervention measures during an epidemic should be considered for the design of effective strategies that address short-term targets compatible with long-term disease outcomes.

  12. Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2010-08-01

    During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

  13. Inter-laboratory study to characterize the detection of serum antibodies against porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandbygaard, Bertel; Lavazza, Antonio; Lelli, Davide; Blanchard, Yannick; Grasland, Béatrice; Poder, Sophie Le; Rose, Nicolas; Steinbach, Falko; van der Poel, Wim H M; Widén, Frederik; Belsham, Graham J; Bøtner, Anette

    2016-12-25

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused extensive economic losses to pig producers in many countries. It was recently introduced, for the first time, into North America and outbreaks have occurred again in multiple countries within Europe as well. To assess the properties of various diagnostic assays for the detection of PEDV infection, multiple panels of porcine sera have been shared and tested for the presence of antibodies against PEDV in an inter-laboratory ring trial. Different laboratories have used a variety of "in house" ELISAs and also one commercial assay. The sensitivity and specificity of each assay has been estimated using a Bayesian analysis applied to the ring trial results obtained with the different assays in the absence of a gold standard. Although different characteristics were found, it can be concluded that each of the assays used can detect infection of pigs at a herd level by either the early European strains of PEDV or the recently circulating strains (INDEL and non-INDEL). However, not all the assays seem suitable for demonstrating freedom from disease in a country. The results from individual animals, especially when the infection has occurred within an experimental situation, show more variation. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Adaptive evolution of the spike gene of SARS coronavirus: changes in positively selected sites in different epidemic groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    He Shao-Heng

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is believed that animal-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS coronavirus (CoV is the cause of the SARS outbreak worldwide. The spike (S protein is one of the best characterized proteins of SARS-CoV, which plays a key role in SARS-CoV overcoming species barrier and accomplishing interspecies transmission from animals to humans, suggesting that it may be the major target of selective pressure. However, the process of adaptive evolution of S protein and the exact positively selected sites associated with this process remain unknown. Results By investigating the adaptive evolution of S protein, we identified twelve amino acid sites (75, 239, 244, 311, 479, 609, 613, 743, 765, 778, 1148, and 1163 in the S protein under positive selective pressure. Based on phylogenetic tree and epidemiological investigation, SARS outbreak was divided into three epidemic groups: 02–04 interspecies, 03-early-mid, and 03-late epidemic groups in the present study. Positive selection was detected in the first two groups, which represent the course of SARS-CoV interspecies transmission and of viral adaptation to human host, respectively. In contrast, purifying selection was detected in 03-late group. These indicate that S protein experiences variable positive selective pressures before reaching stabilization. A total of 25 sites in 02–04 interspecies epidemic group and 16 sites in 03-early-mid epidemic group were identified under positive selection. The identified sites were different between these two groups except for site 239, which suggests that positively selected sites are changeable between groups. Moreover, it was showed that a larger proportion (24% of positively selected sites was located in receptor-binding domain (RBD than in heptad repeat (HR1-HR2 region in 02–04 interspecies epidemic group (p = 0.0208, and a greater percentage (25% of these sites occurred in HR1–HR2 region than in RBD in 03-early

  15. Phenotypic, Genotypic, and Antibiotic Sensitivity Patterns of Strains Isolated from the Cholera Epidemic in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Islam, Mohammad S.; Mahmud, Zahid H.; Ansaruzzaman, Mohammad; Faruque, Shah M.; Talukder, Kaisar A.; Qadri, Firdausi; Alam, Munirul; Islam, Shafiqul; Bardhan, Pradip K.; Mazumder, Ramendra N.; Khan, Azharul I.; Ahmed, Sirajuddin; Iqbal, Anwarul; Chitsatso, Owen; Mudzori, James; Patel, Sheetal; Midzi, Stanley M.; Charimari, Lincoln; Endtz, Hubert P.; Cravioto, Alejandro

    This paper details the phenotypic, genotypic, and antibiotic sensitivity patterns of 88 Vibrio cholerae strains from Zimbabwe. Of the 88 strains, 83 were classified as "altered El Tor" and 5 as "hybrid El Tor" strains. All of the strains were susceptible to tetracycline, doxycycline, ciprofloxacin,

  16. The Chikungunya epidemic in Italy and its repercussion on the blood system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liumbruno, Giancarlo Maria; Calteri, Deanna; Petropulacos, Kyriakoula; Mattivi, Andrea; Po, Claudio; Macini, Pierluigi; Tomasini, Ivana; Zucchelli, Paolo; Silvestri, Anna Rita; Sambri, Vittorio; Pupella, Simonetta; Catalano, Liviana; Piccinini, Vanessa; Calizzani, Gabriele; Grazzini, Giuliano

    2008-10-01

    The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes and recently caused a massive epidemic on La Réunion Island, in the Indian Ocean. Between July and September 2007 it caused the first autochthonous epidemic outbreak in Europe, in the Region of Emilia-Romagna in the north-east of Italy. After the first reports of an unusually high number of patients with a febrile illness of unknown origin in two contiguous villages, an outbreak investigation was carried out to identify the primary source of infection, the modes of transmission and the dynamics of the epidemic. An active surveillance system was also implemented. Laboratory diagnosis was performed through serology and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. Blood donation was discontinued in the areas involved from September to October 2007 and specific precautionary blood safety and self-sufficiency measures were adopted by the regional health and blood authorities and the National Blood Centre. An estimate method to early assess the risk of viraemic blood donations by asymptomatic donors was developed, as a tool for "pragmatic" risk assessment and management, aiming at providing a reliable order of magnitude of the mean risk of CHIKV transmission through blood transfusion. Two hundred and seventeen cases of CHIKV infection were identified between 4th July and 28th September. The disease was fairly mild in most of the cases. The precautionary measures adopted in the blood system caused a considerable reduction of the collection of blood components and of the delivery of plasma to the pharmaceutical industry for contract manufacturing. The estimated risk of CHIKV transmission through blood transfusion peaked in the third week of August. ACHIKV epidemic poses considerable problems for public health authorities, who not only need good routine programmes of vector control and epidemiological surveillance but also local and national emergency plans to sustain the blood supply, so as to promptly deal

  17. International dissemination of epidemic Vibrio cholerae by cargo ship ballast and other nonpotable waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, S A; Khambaty, F M

    1994-07-01

    In 1991 and 1992, toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1, serotype Inaba, biotype El Tor, was recovered from nonpotable (ballast, bilge, and sewage) water from five cargo ships docked in ports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Four of these ships had taken on ballast water in cholera-infected countries; the fifth took on ballast in a noninfected country. Isolates examined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis were indistinguishable from the Latin American epidemic strain, C6707; however, they differed significantly from the endemic Gulf Coast strain (VRL 1984), the sixth-pandemic strain (569-B), and a V. cholerae non-O1 strain isolated from a ship arriving from a foreign port. On the basis of our findings, the Food and Drug Administration recommended that the U.S. Coast Guard issue an advisory to shipping agents and captains requesting that ballast waters be exchanged on the high seas before entry of ships into U.S. ports.

  18. Increased cytotoxicity and streptolysin O activity in group G streptococcal strains causing invasive tissue infections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siemens, Nikolai; Kittang, Bård R; Chakrakodi, Bhavya

    2015-01-01

    Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis (SDSE) has emerged as an important cause of severe skin and soft tissue infections, but little is known of the pathogenic mechanisms underlying tissue pathology. Patient samples and a collection of invasive and non-invasive group G SDSE strains (n = 6...

  19. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  20. Beyond fast food and slow motion: Weighty contributors to the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cizza, G.; Rother, K.I.

    2012-01-01

    Decreased physical activity and marketing-driven increased consumption of “junk” food, dubbed “The Big Two”, are generally regarded as the most important contributors to the obesity epidemic. However, the full picture contains many more pieces of the puzzle. We address several additional issues and review current clinical developments in obesity research. In spite of dramatic advancements in our understanding of the adipose organ and its endocrine and immune products, the ultimate causes of the obesity epidemic remain elusive. Treatment is plagued by poor adherence to life style modifications, and available pharmacological options are marginally effective, often also associated with major side effects. Surgical treatments, albeit effective in decreasing body weight, are invasive and expensive. Thus, our approaches to finding the causes, improving the existing treatments, and inventing novel therapies must be manifold. PMID:22183119

  1. Frequency of resistance to penicillin and erythromycin of pneumococcal strains that caused ottis media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Luka

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important human pathogen and the most common cause of acute otitis media (AOM, especially in children. It is also a common cause of community acquired pneumonia, sepsis and bacterial meningitis. Drug of choice in the treatment of these disease are beta lactam antibiotics, and the first alternative are macrolides. The increasing prevalence of resistance to penicillin and macrolides, among pneumococci, has considerably complicated the treatment. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine susceptibility of pneumococcal isolates from pediatric AOM in Serbia to antibiotics. Material and methods: Antimicrobial susceptibility testing of 61 pneumococcal AOM was performed, collected from December 2014 to December 2015, using disk diffusion method and E test. Macrolide resistance profile was determined by double disk diffusion test. Results: In our study, 40 strains (65.6% showed reduced sensitivity to penicillin and erythromycin. There were 9 (14.8% high resistant isolates to penicillin, while 31 (50.8% showed reduced susceptibility. The most frequent resistance phenotype was cMLS. Co-resistance to penicillin and macrolides was found in 14.8% strains. Conclusion: Our results showed high resistance rate of S. pneumoniae, which causes AOM among children, to penicillin and macrolides. Further active surveillance of pneumococcal susceptibility to antibiotics is necessary, and use of these medications in empirical therapy should be limited.

  2. Epidemiology and the Tobacco Epidemic: How Research on Tobacco and Health Shaped Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samet, Jonathan M

    2016-03-01

    In this article, I provide a perspective on the tobacco epidemic and epidemiology, describing the impact of the tobacco-caused disease epidemic on the field of epidemiology. Although there is an enormous body of epidemiologic evidence on the associations of smoking with health, little systematic attention has been given to how decades of research have affected epidemiology and its practice. I address the many advances that resulted from epidemiologic research on smoking and health, such as demonstration of the utility of observational designs and important parameters (the odds ratio and the population attributable risk), guidelines for causal inference, and systematic review approaches. I also cover unintended and adverse consequences for the field, including the strategy of doubt creation and the recruitment of epidemiologists by the tobacco industry to serve its mission. The paradigm of evidence-based action for addressing noncommunicable diseases began with the need to address the epidemic of tobacco-caused disease, an imperative for action documented by epidemiologic research. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Evaluation of Trichoderma spp. strains for control yellowing pea caused by Fusarium oxysporum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Eraso Insuasty

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The yellowing of pea caused by the fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. pisi is considered the most damaging disease of this crop. This study took place at the plant health laboratory and greenhouse of the Universidad de Nariño, and the experimental stage was conducted at the Granja experimental Botana. Its purpose was to evaluate the antagonistic ability of the fungi Trichoderma spp. to F. oxysporum. Isolation of F. oxysporum was made from diseased tissue; Trichoderma strains were obtained from the rhizosphere of healthy plants (collected in the towns of Potosi, Córdoba, Gualmatán, Ipiales and Puerres in the state of Nariño, Colombia, and a commercial strain from laboratory Perkins Ltda. In laboratory, unrestrictedly randomized design with 21 treatments (strains was used. Mycelial growth and inhibition zone were evaluated in dual plantings, which served as selection criteria for greenhouse test where plant height, root length, root dry matter and percentage of incidence were evaluated. In the field, a randomized block design was used to evaluate yield components, plant height and root length with the best strains. In the laboratory, C2 (Córdoba 2, C7 (Gualmatán 3, C14 (Puerres 2, C20 (Potosi 4 and C21 (Perkins Lab. showed antagonistic activity in the greenhouse, C7, C14 and C21 were the best; in field, significant differences between C14 and C21, compared to C7 and the control, were obtained. Strains C14 and C21 have consistent antagonistic capacity and can be used to control F. oxysporum in pea.

  4. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  5. The Convergence of a Virus, Mosquitoes, and Human Travel in Globalizing the Zika Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imperato, Pascal James

    2016-06-01

    Zika virus infection. How the disease entered Brazil is a matter of conjecture. However, the strain responsible for the epidemic in Brazil and elsewhere in South and Central America is phylogenetically identical to that which caused the epidemic in French Polynesia. The wide distribution of Aedes aegypti, a principal vector of the virus, and other Aedes species has greatly facilitated the spread of the disease. Aedes aegypti is an invasive species of mosquito in the Western Hemisphere that has adapted well to densely-populated urban environments. In addition, male-to-female human sexual transmission has increasingly been demonstrated in the US and elsewhere. In February 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current Zika outbreak a Public Health Emergency of international concern. On the recommendation of its Emergency Committee on Zika Virus and Observed Increase in Neurological Disorders and Neonatal Malformations, WHO issued a group of recommendations to contain the epidemic. The globalization of the Zika virus was made possible by the widespread presence in various parts of the world of Aedes vectors and increased human travel that facilitated geographic spread. This globalization of Zika follows upon that of West Nile, Ebola, Dengue, and Chikungunya. Its ultimate spread is difficult to predict, but will hopefully be restricted through vigorous preventive measures.

  6. Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor

    2017-01-01

    The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. ...

  7. Molecular Epidemiological Study of Mumps Epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuba, Yumani; Kyan, Hisako; Arakaki, Eri; Takara, Taketoshi; Kato, Takashi; Okano, Sho; Oshiro, Yuko; Kudaka, Jun; Kidokoro, Minoru

    2017-05-24

    Although major mumps epidemics occurred every 4-5 years in Okinawa Prefecture in Japan, no laboratory diagnoses were conducted. A mumps epidemic started in Okinawa in October 2014, and we collected clinical samples from 31 patients in 4 areas (Hokubu, Nanbu, Miyako, and Yaeyama) from July to December 2015, for virus isolation and RT-PCR, whose positive ratios were 52% and 87%, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses showed that all isolates were classified into genotype G, and with one exception, consisted of 2 subgenotypes, Ge (55.6%) and Gw (40.7%), which have been prominent in Japan recently. One isolate was classified in another lineage, which was detected in Japan for the first time, and was similar to a Hong Kong isolate from 2014. Remarkably, the geographic distributions of the 2 major lineages were separated. The Ge viruses were isolated from the main island of Okinawa and the Yaeyama Islands, whereas the Gw isolates were mainly detected from the Miyako Islands. These results suggest that the Ge and Gw mumps viruses mainly caused the mumps epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, and that they spread independently in separate regions. This is the first report describing the molecular epidemiology of mumps epidemics in Okinawa Prefecture.

  8. Genomic and pathogenic analysis of a Muscovy duck parvovirus strain causing short beak and dwarfism syndrome without tongue protrusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Qiuling; Huang, Yu; Wan, Chunhe; Fu, Guanghua; Qi, Baomin; Cheng, Longfei; Shi, Shaohua; Chen, Hongmei; Liu, Rongchang; Chen, Zhenhai

    2017-12-01

    In 2008, clinical cases of short beak and dwarfism syndrome (SBDS) caused by Muscovy duck parvovirus (MDPV) infection were found in mule duck and Taiwan white duck farms in Fujian, China. A MDPV LH strain causing duck SBDS without tongue protrusion was isolated in this study. Phylogenetic analysis show that the MDPV LH strain was clustered together with other MDPV strains, but divergent from GPV isolates. Two major fragment deletions were found in the inverted terminal repeats (ITR) of MDPV LH similar to the ones in the ITR of MDPV GX5, YY and SAAS-SHNH strains. To investigate the pathogenicity of the MDPV LH strain, virus infection of young mule ducks was performed. The infected ducks showed SBDS symptoms including retard growth and shorten beaks without tongue protrusion. Atrophy of thymus, spleen and bursa of Fabricius was identified in the infected ducks. The results show that MDPV LH strain is moderately pathogenic to mule duck, leading to occurrence of SBDS. As far as we know, it is the first study showing that SBDS without tongue protrusion, and atrophy of thymus, spleen and bursa of Fabricius possibly associated with immunosuppression were found in the MDPV-infected ducks. The established duck-MDPV-SBDS system will help us to further work on the virus pathogenesis and develop efficacious vaccine against MDPV infection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  10. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  11. Genetic Relatedness among Nontypeable Pneumococci Implicated in Sporadic Cases of Conjunctivitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, Jason H.; Musher, Daniel M.; Silberman, Ronald; Phan, Hoang M.; Watson, David A.

    1999-01-01

    Nontypeable Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of epidemic conjunctivitis. A previous molecular fingerprinting study identified a clone of nontypeable pneumococcus that was responsible for a recent outbreak of conjunctivitis. In the present study, we examined the extent to which pneumococci that cause sporadic cases of conjunctivitis are related to this epidemic strain. Using arbitrarily primed BOX-PCR, we have determined that, of 10 nontypeable pneumococci causing sporadic conjunctivitis, 5 were clonal and closely related to a previous outbreak strain, whereas 5 others were genetically diverse. PMID:10565927

  12. Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa: Global Health Economic Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Policy Recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmahdawy, Mahmoud; Elsisi, Gihan H; Carapinha, Joao; Lamorde, Mohamed; Habib, Abdulrazaq; Agyie-Baffour, Peter; Soualmi, Redouane; Ragab, Samah; Udezi, Anthony W; Usifoh, Cyril; Usifoh, Stella

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus has spread across several Western Africa countries, adding a significant financial burden to their health systems and economies. In this article the experience with Ebola is reviewed, and economic challenges and policy recommendations are discussed to help curb the impact of other diseases in the future. The West African Ebola virus disease epidemic started in resource-constrained settings and caused thousands of fatalities during the last epidemic. Nevertheless, given population mobility, international travel, and an increasingly globalized economy, it has the potential to re-occur and evolve into a global pandemic. Struggling health systems in West African countries hinder the ability to reduce the causes and effects of the Ebola epidemic. The lessons learned include the need for strengthening health systems, mainly primary care systems, expedited access to treatments and vaccines to treat the Ebola virus disease, guidance on safety, efficacy, and regulatory standards for such treatments, and ensuring that research and development efforts are directed toward existing needs. Other lessons include adopting policies that allow for better flow of relief, averting the adverse impact of strong quarantine policy that includes exaggerating the aversion behavior by alarming trade and business partners providing financial support to strengthen growth in the affected fragile economies by the Ebola outbreak. Curbing the impact of future Ebola epidemics, or comparable diseases, requires increased long-term investments in health system strengthening, better collaboration between different international organizations, more funding for research and development efforts aimed at developing vaccines and treatments, and tools to detect, treat, and prevent future epidemics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. West Nile Virus: High Transmission Rate in North-Western European Mosquitoes Indicates Its Epidemic Potential and Warrants Increased Surveillance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelke J Fros

    Full Text Available West Nile virus (WNV is a highly pathogenic flavivirus transmitted by Culex spp. mosquitoes. In North America (NA, lineage 1 WNV caused the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease to date, while a novel pathogenic lineage 2 strain circulates in southern Europe. To estimate WNV lineage 2 epidemic potential it is paramount to know if mosquitoes from currently WNV-free areas can support further spread of this epidemic.We assessed WNV vector competence of Culex pipiens mosquitoes originating from north-western Europe (NWE in direct comparison with those from NA. We exposed mosquitoes to infectious blood meals of lineage 1 or 2 WNV and determined the infection and transmission rates. We explored reasons for vector competence differences by comparing intrathoracic injection versus blood meal infection, and we investigated the influence of temperature. We found that NWE mosquitoes are highly competent for both WNV lineages, with transmission rates up to 25%. Compared to NA mosquitoes, transmission rates for lineage 2 WNV were significantly elevated in NWE mosquitoes due to better virus dissemination from the midgut and a shorter extrinsic incubation time. WNV infection rates further increased with temperature increase.Our study provides experimental evidence to indicate markedly different risk levels between both continents for lineage 2 WNV transmission and suggests a degree of genotype-genotype specificity in the interaction between virus and vector. Our experiments with varying temperatures explain the current localized WNV activity in southern Europe, yet imply further epidemic spread throughout NWE during periods with favourable climatic conditions. This emphasizes the need for intensified surveillance of virus activity in current WNV disease-free regions and warrants increased awareness in clinics throughout Europe.

  14. Distribution and content of class 1 integrons in different Vibrio cholerae O-serotype strains isolated in Thailand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalsgaard, Anders; Forslund, Anita; Serichantalergs, Oralak

    2000-01-01

    only a single antibiotic resistance gene. Although resistance genes in class 1 integrons were found in strains from the same epidemic, as well as in unrelated non-O1, non-O139 strains isolated from children with diarrhea, they were found to encode only some of the antibiotic resistance expressed...

  15. Characterization of Clostridium difficile Strains in British Columbia, Canada: A Shift from NAP1 Majority (2008 to Novel Strain Types (2013 in One Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agatha N. Jassem

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Clostridium difficile is a major cause of gastrointestinal illness. Epidemic NAP1 strains contain toxins A and B, a deletion in repressor tcdC, and a binary toxin. Objectives. To determine the molecular epidemiology of C. difficile in British Columbia and compare between two time points in one region. Methods. C. difficile isolates from hospital and community laboratories (2008 and one Island Health hospital laboratory (2013 were characterized by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, PCR-ribotyping, toxin possession, tcdC genotype, and antimicrobial susceptibility. Results. In 2008, 42.7% of isolates had NAP1 designation. Hospital-collected isolates were associated with older patients and more NAP1 types. Unlike other isolates, most NAP1 isolates possessed binary toxin and a 19 bp loss in tcdC. All isolates were susceptible to metronidazole and vancomycin. A 2013 follow-up revealed a 28.9% decrease in NAP1 isolates and 20.0% increase in isolates without NAP designation in one region. Then, community-associated cases were seen in younger patients, while NAP types were evenly distributed. Isolates without NAP designation did not cluster with a PFGE pattern or ribotype. Conclusions. Evaluation of C. difficile infections within British Columbia revealed demographic associations, epidemiological shifts, and characteristics of strain types. Continuous surveillance of C. difficile will enable detection of emerging strains.

  16. Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor

    2017-01-01

    The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We...

  17. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  18. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Cross-protective efficacy of engineering serotype A foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine against the two pandemic strains in swine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Haixue; Lian, Kaiqi; Yang, Fan; Jin, Ye; Zhu, Zixiang; Guo, Jianhong; Cao, Weijun; Liu, Huanan; He, Jijun; Zhang, Keshan; Li, Dan; Liu, Xiangtao

    2015-10-26

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious vesicular disease that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals worldwide. Recently, a series of outbreaks of type A FMDV occurred in Southeast Asian countries, China, the Russia Federation, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and South Korea. The FMD virus (A/GDMM/CHA/2013) from China's Guangdong province (2013) is representative of those responsible for the latest epidemic, and has low amino acid identity (93.9%) in VP1 protein with the epidemic strain A/WH/CHA/09 from Wuhan, China in 2009. Both of isolates belong to the Sea-97 genotype of ASIA topotype. Therefore, the application of a new vaccine strain with cross-protective efficacy is of fundamental importance to control the spread of the two described pandemic strains. A chimeric strain rA/P1-FMDV constructed by our lab previously through replacing the P1 gene in the vaccine strain O/CHA/99 with that from the epidemic stain A/WH/CHA/09, has been demonstrated to exhibit good growth characteristics in culture, and the rA/P1-FMDV inactivated vaccine can provide protection against epidemic strain A/WH/CHA/09 in cattle. However, it is still unclear whether the vaccine produces efficient protection against the new pandemic strain (A/GDMM/CHA/2013). Here, vaccine matching and pig 50% protective dose (PD50) tests were performed to assess the vaccine potency. The vaccine matching test showed cross-reactivity of sera from full dose vaccine vaccinated pigs with A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 isolates, with average r1 values of 0.94±0.12 and 0.68±0.06 (r1≥0.3), which indicates that the rA/P1-FMDV vaccine is likely to confer good cross-protection against the two isolates. When challenged with two pandemic isolates A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 strain, the vaccine achieved 12.51 PD50 and 10.05 PD50 per dose (2.8μg), respectively. The results indicated that the rA/P1-FMDV inactivated vaccine could protect pigs against both A/WH/CHA/09 and A/GDMM/CHA/2013 pandemic isolates

  20. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  1. [Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

    2011-03-01

    Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

  2. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zobel, Emilie H.; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter

    2016-01-01

    power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity......Purpose of Review We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Recent Findings Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing...... epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. Summary...

  3. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  4. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  5. Summer epidemics of apple scab : The relationship between measurements and their implications for the development of predictive models and threshold levels under different disease control regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holb, I.J.; Heijne, B.; Jeger, M.J.

    2003-01-01

    A 2-year study on epidemic progress of apple scab was conducted at Randwijk, the Netherlands, in 1998 and 1999. The summer epidemic caused by conidia was studied instead of the well-described spring season epidemic originating from ascospores. The aim was to investigate relationships between disease

  6. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  7. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  8. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  9. Learning from Ebola Virus: How to Prevent Future Epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S. Kekulé

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone demonstrated that the World Health Organization (WHO is incapable to control outbreaks of infectious diseases in less developed regions of the world. This essay analyses the causes for the failure of the international response and proposes four measures to improve resilience, early detection and response to future outbreaks of infectious diseases.

  10. [Effects of the periodical spread of rinderpest on famine, epidemic, and tiger disasters in the late 17th Century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong Jin; Yoo, Han Sang; Lee, Hang

    2014-04-01

    This study clarifies the causes of the repetitive occurrences of such phenomena as rinderpest, epidemic, famine, and tiger disasters recorded in the Joseon Dynasty Chronicle and the Seungjeongwon Journals in the period of great catastrophe, the late 17th century in which the great Gyeongsin famine (1670~1671) and the great Eulbyeong famine (1695~1696) occurred, from the perspective that they were biological exchanges caused by the new arrival of rinderpest in the early 17th century. It is an objection to the achievements by existing studies which suggest that the great catastrophes occurring in the late 17th century are evidence of phenomena in a little ice age. First of all, rinderpest has had influence on East Asia as it had been spread from certain areas in Machuria in May 1636 through Joseon, where it raged throughout the nation, and then to the west part of Japan. The new arrival of rinderpest was indigenized in Joseon, where it was localized and spread periodically while it was adjusted to changes in the population of cattle with immunity in accordance with their life spans and reproduction rates. As the new rinderpest, which showed high pathogenicity in the early 17th century, was indigenized with its high mortality and continued until the late 17th century, it broke out periodically in general. Contrastively, epidemics like smallpox and measles that were indigenized as routine ones had occurred constantly from far past times. As a result, the rinderpest, which tried a new indigenization, and the human epidemics, which had been already indigenized long ago, were unexpectedly overlapped in their breakout, and hence great changes were noticed in the aspects of the human casualty due to epidemics. The outbreak of rinderpest resulted in famine due to lack of farming cattle, and the famine caused epidemics among people. The casualty of the human population due to the epidemics in turn led to negligence of farming cattle, which constituted factors that triggered

  11. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  12. Epidemic O'Nyong-Nyong fever in southcentral Uganda, 1996-1997: entomologic studies in Bbaale village, Rakai District.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutwama, J J; Kayondo, J; Savage, H M; Burkot, T R; Miller, B R

    1999-07-01

    Entomologic studies were conducted between January 27 and February 2, 1997, in Bbaale village in southcentral Uganda during an o'nyong-nyong (ONN) virus epidemic, which began in mid 1996 and continued into 1997. The objectives were to confirm the role of anophelines in ONN virus transmission and to examine other mosquito species as epidemic vectors of ONN virus. Of 10,050 mosquitoes collected using light traps and pyrethrum knockdown sprays, Anopheles (Cellia) funestus Giles was presumed to be the principal vector because it was the most abundant mosquito species from which a strain of ONN virus was isolated. This virus was isolated for the first time from a culicine species, Mansonia (Mansonioides) uniformis Theobald. Bwamba virus and Nyando virus were also isolated from An. funestus.

  13. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  14. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  15. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  16. Genetic divergence of influenza A NS1 gene in pandemic 2009 H1N1 isolates with respect to H1N1 and H3N2 isolates from previous seasonal epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campanini Giulia

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Influenza A pandemic sustained by a new H1N1 variant (H1N1v started in Mexico and the USA at the end of April 2009 spreading worldwide in a few weeks. In this study we investigate the variability of the NS1 gene of the pandemic H1N1v strain with respect to previous seasonal strains circulating in humans and the potential selection of virus variants through isolation in cell culture. Methods During the period April 27th 2009-Jan 15th 2010, 1633 potential 2009 H1N1v cases have been screened at our center using the CDC detection and typing realtime RT-PCR assays. Virus isolation on MDCK cells was systematically performed in 1/10 positive cases. A subset of 51 H1N1v strains isolated in the period May-September 2009 was selected for NS1 gene sequencing. In addition, 15 H1N1 and 47 H3N2 virus isolates from three previous seasonal epidemics (2006-2009 were analyzed in parallel. Results A low variability in the NS1 amino acid (aa sequence among H1N1v isolates was shown (aa identity 99.5%. A slightly higher NS1 variability was observed among H1N1 and H3N2 strains from previous epidemics (aa identity 98.6% and 98.9%, respectively. The H1N1v strains were closely related (aa identity 92.1% to swine reference strain (A/swine/Oklahoma/042169/2008. In contrast, substantial divergence (aa identity 83.4% with respect to human reference strain A/Brevig Mission/1/1918 and previous epidemic strains H1N1 and H3N2 (aa identity 78.9% and 77.6%, respectively was shown. Specific sequence signatures of uncertain significance in the new virus variant were a C-terminus deletion and a T215P substitution. Conclusions The H1N1v NS1 gene was more conserved than that of previous epidemic strains. In addition, a closer genetic identity of H1N1v with the swine than the human reference strains was shown. Hot-spots were shown in the H1N1v NS1 aa sequence whose biologic relevance remains to be investigated.

  17. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  18. Impact of interventions and the incidence of ebola virus disease in Liberia-implications for future epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Thomas D; Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Goodermote, Rachel; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Lessler, Justin; Cumings, Derek A T; Peters, David H

    2017-03-01

    To better understand the impact of national and global efforts to contain the Ebola virus disease epidemic of 2014–15 in Liberia, we provide a detailed timeline of the major interventions and relate them to the epidemic curve.  In addition to personal experience in the response, we systematically reviewed situation reports from the Liberian government, UN, CDC, WHO, UNICEF, IFRC, USAID, and local and international news reports to create the timeline. We extracted data on the timing and nature of activities and compared them to the timeline of the epidemic curve using the reproduction number—the estimate of the average number of new cases caused by a single case.  Interventions were organized around five major strategies, with the majority of resources directed to the creation of treatment beds. We conclude that no single intervention stopped the epidemic; rather, the interventions likely had reinforcing effects, and some were less likely than others to have made a major impact. We find that the epidemic’s turning coincided with a reorganization of the response in August–September 2014, the emergence of community leadership in control efforts, and changing beliefs and practices in the population. Ebola Treatment Units were important for Ebola treatment, but the vast majority of these treatment centre beds became available after the epidemic curve began declining. Similarly, the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response was launched after the epidemic curve had already turned.  These findings have significant policy implications for future epidemics and suggest that much of the decline in the epidemic curve was driven by critical behaviour changes within local communities, rather than by international efforts that came after the epidemic had turned. Future global interventions in epidemic response should focus on building community capabilities, strengthening local ownership, and dramatically reducing delays in the response.

  19. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  20. Core Genome Multilocus Sequence Typing for Identification of Globally Distributed Clonal Groups and Differentiation of Outbreak Strains of Listeria monocytogenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Gonzalez-Escalona, Narjol; Hammack, Thomas S; Allard, Marc W; Strain, Errol A; Brown, Eric W

    2016-10-15

    Many listeriosis outbreaks are caused by a few globally distributed clonal groups, designated clonal complexes or epidemic clones, of Listeria monocytogenes, several of which have been defined by classic multilocus sequence typing (MLST) schemes targeting 6 to 8 housekeeping or virulence genes. We have developed and evaluated core genome MLST (cgMLST) schemes and applied them to isolates from multiple clonal groups, including those associated with 39 listeriosis outbreaks. The cgMLST clusters were congruent with MLST-defined clonal groups, which had various degrees of diversity at the whole-genome level. Notably, cgMLST could distinguish among outbreak strains and epidemiologically unrelated strains of the same clonal group, which could not be achieved using classic MLST schemes. The precise selection of cgMLST gene targets may not be critical for the general identification of clonal groups and outbreak strains. cgMLST analyses further identified outbreak strains, including those associated with recent outbreaks linked to contaminated French-style cheese, Hispanic-style cheese, stone fruit, caramel apple, ice cream, and packaged leafy green salad, as belonging to major clonal groups. We further developed lineage-specific cgMLST schemes, which can include accessory genes when core genomes do not possess sufficient diversity, and this provided additional resolution over species-specific cgMLST. Analyses of isolates from different common-source listeriosis outbreaks revealed various degrees of diversity, indicating that the numbers of allelic differences should always be combined with cgMLST clustering and epidemiological evidence to define a listeriosis outbreak. Classic multilocus sequence typing (MLST) schemes targeting internal fragments of 6 to 8 genes that define clonal complexes or epidemic clones have been widely employed to study L. monocytogenes biodiversity and its relation to pathogenicity potential and epidemiology. We demonstrated that core genome MLST

  1. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  3. Evaluation and Comparison of the Pathogenicity and Host Immune Responses Induced by a G2b Taiwan Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (Strain Pintung 52) and Its Highly Cell-Culture Passaged Strain in Conventional 5-Week-Old Pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yen-Chen; Kao, Chi-Fei; Chang, Chia-Yu; Jeng, Chian-Ren; Tsai, Pei-Shiue; Pang, Victor Fei; Chiou, Hue-Ying; Peng, Ju-Yi; Cheng, Ivan-Chen; Chang, Hui-Wen

    2017-05-19

    A genogroup 2b (G2b) porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) Taiwan Pintung 52 (PEDVPT) strain was isolated in 2014. The pathogenicity and host antibody responses elicited by low-passage (passage 5; PEDVPT-P5) and high-passage (passage 96; PEDVPT-P96) PEDVPT strains were compared in post-weaning PEDV-seronegative pigs by oral inoculation. PEDVPT-P5-inoculation induced typical diarrhea during 1-9 days post inoculation with fecal viral shedding persisting for 26 days. Compared to PEDVPT-P5, PEDVPT-P96 inoculation induced none-to-mild diarrhea and lower, delayed fecal viral shedding. Although PEDVPT-P96 elicited slightly lower neutralizing antibodies and PEDV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) titers, a reduction in pathogenicity and viral shedding of the subsequent challenge with PEDVPT-P5 were noted in both PEDVPT-P5- and PEDVPT-P96-inoculated pigs. Alignment and comparison of full-length sequences of PEDVPT-P5 and PEDVPT-P96 revealed 23 nucleotide changes and resultant 19 amino acid substitutions in non-structure proteins 2, 3, 4, 9, 14, 15, spike, open reading frame 3 (ORF3), and membrane proteins with no detectable deletion or insertion. The present study confirmed the pathogenicity of the PEDVPT isolate in conventional post-weaning pigs. Moreover, data regarding viral attenuation and potency of induced antibodies against PEDVPT-P5 identified PEDVPT-P96 as a potential live-attenuated vaccine candidate.

  4. Two novel porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) recombinants from a natural recombinant and distinct subtypes of PEDV variants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nanhua; Li, Shuangjie; Zhou, Rongyun; Zhu, Meiqin; He, Shan; Ye, Mengxue; Huang, Yucheng; Li, Shuai; Zhu, Cong; Xia, Pengpeng; Zhu, Jianzhong

    2017-10-15

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes devastating impact on global pig-breeding industry and current vaccines have become not effective against the circulating PEDV variants since 2011. During the up-to-date investigation of PEDV prevalence in Fujian China 2016, PEDV was identified in vaccinated pig farms suffering severe diarrhea while other common diarrhea-associated pathogens were not detected. Complete genomes of two PEDV representatives (XM1-2 and XM2-4) were determined. Genomic comparison showed that these two viruses share the highest nucleotide identities (99.10% and 98.79%) with the 2011 ZMDZY strain, but only 96.65% and 96.50% nucleotide identities with the attenuated CV777 strain. Amino acid alignment of spike (S) proteins indicated that they have the similar mutation, insertion and deletion pattern as other Chinese PEDV variants but also contain several unique substitutions. Phylogenetic analysis showed that 2016 PEDV variants belong to the cluster of recombination strains but form a new branch. Recombination detection suggested that both XM1-2 and XM2-4 are inter-subgroup recombinants with breakpoints within ORF1b. Remarkably, the natural recombinant HNQX-3 isolate serves as a parental virus for both natural recombinants identified in this study. This up-to-date investigation provides the direct evidence that natural recombinants may serve as parental viruses to generate recombined PEDV progenies that are probably associated with the vaccination failure. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Sickness absenteeism rate in Iranian schools during the 2009 epidemic of type a influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pourabbasi, Ata; Shirvani, Mahbubeh Ebrahimnegad; Khashayar, Patricia

    2012-02-01

    Influenza pandemic was a global event in 2009 and intraschool transmission was its main spread method. The present study was designed to evaluate the absenteeism rate during the type A influenza epidemic. Four hundred and eight students from both a guidance school and high school in the Iranian capital were recruited in this retrospective study. The number of days of absenteeism, since the beginning of the school year until the end of the epidemic was recorded. Two hundred and thirteen students missed school during the disease epidemic because of related causes. In other words, 581 person day absences were reported during this period. The influenza pandemic has led to an increase in the absenteeism rate and may negatively affect the academic performance of the students. Teaching precautionary measures is an effective tool in reducing the number of days of sickness.

  6. HIV-1 epidemic in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela: spatial phylodynamics and epidemiological patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalba, Julian A; Bello, Gonzalo; Maes, Mailis; Sulbaran, Yoneira F; Garzaro, Domingo; Loureiro, Carmen L; Rangel, Hector R; de Waard, Jacobus H; Pujol, Flor H

    2013-07-17

    We previously reported HIV-1 infection in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent and the dynamic of HIV-1 dissemination in eight Warao communities. HIV-1 infection was evaluated in 576 Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic dynamics of the epidemic. HIV-1 antibodies were present in 9.55% of Warao Amerindians, ranging from 0 to 22%. A significantly higher prevalence was found in men (15.6%) compared with women (2.6%), reaching up to 35% in men from one community. All but one isolates were classified as subtype B. Warao's HIV-1 subtype-B epidemic resulted from a single viral introduction at around the early 2000s. After an initial phase of slow growth, the subtype B started to spread at a fast rate (0.8/year) following two major routes of migration within the communities. A dramatic high prevalence was documented in almost all the communities of Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta tested for HIV-1 infection. This epidemic resulted from the dissemination of a single HIV-1 subtype B founder strain introduced about 10 years ago and its size is probably doubling every year, creating a situation that can be devastating for this vulnerable Amerindian group.

  7. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  8. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  9. Manure treatment and natural inactivation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    The outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) in North America has substantially impacted U.S. swine production in recent years. The virus it is easily transmitted among pigs and causes nearly 100% mortality in pre-weaned piglets. Because PEDv is an enteric virus spread via fecal-oral conta...

  10. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  11. Epidemic Dissemination of a Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii Clone Carrying armA Two Years After Its First Isolation in an Italian Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milan, Annalisa; Furlanis, Linda; Cian, Franca; Bressan, Raffaela; Luzzati, Roberto; Lagatolla, Cristina; Deiana, Maria Luisa; Knezevich, Anna; Tonin, Enrico; Dolzani, Lucilla

    2016-12-01

    This study describes the dissemination of a carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) strain in a university hospital in Northeast Italy. Characterization of the outbreak strain was combined with a retrospective analysis of all CRAB isolates collected in the same hospital during the 5 years preceding the outbreak, with the aim of elucidating the origin of the epidemic spread. The outbreak strain was shown to belong to the International Clone II and carry the bla OXA-23 gene, flanked by two ISAba1 sequences in opposite orientation (Tn2006 arrangement). The epidemic clone harbored also the bla OXA-66 allele of the carbapenemase intrinsic to A. baumannii, the determinant of ArmA 16S rRNA methylase and a class 1 integron, with the aacA4, catB8, and aadA1 cassette array. Genotype analysis, performed by macrorestriction analysis and VRBA, revealed that isolates related to outbreak strain had been sporadically collected from inpatients in the 2 years preceding outbreak start. Carriage of bla OXA-66 , armA, and the integron further supported relatedness of these isolates to the outbreak clone. Outbreak initially involved three medical wards, typically hosting elderly patients with a history of prolonged hospitalization. The study highlights the need to adopt strict infection control measures also when CRAB isolation appears to be a sporadic event.

  12. Toxin Gene Analysis of a Variant Strain of Clostridium difficile That Causes Human Clinical Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambol, Susan P.; Merrigan, Michelle M.; Lyerly, David; Gerding, Dale N.; Johnson, Stuart

    2000-01-01

    A toxin variant strain of Clostridium difficile was isolated from two patients with C. difficile-associated disease (CDAD), one of whom died from extensive pseudomembranous colitis. This strain, identified by restriction endonuclease analysis (REA) as type CF2, was not detected by an immunoassay for C. difficile toxin A. Culture supernatants of CF2 failed to elicit significant enterotoxic activity in the rabbit ileal loop assay but did produce atypical cytopathic effects in cell culture assay. Southern hybridization, PCR amplification, and DNA sequence analyses were performed on the toxin A (tcdA) and toxin B (tcdB) genes of type CF2 isolate 5340. Type CF2 5340 tcdA exhibited a 1,821-bp truncation, due to three deletions in the 3′ end of the gene, and a point mutation in the 5′ end of the gene, resulting in a premature stop codon at tcdA position 139. Type CF2 5340 tcdB exhibited multiple nucleotide base substitutions in the 5′ end of the gene compared to tcdB of the standard toxigenic strain VPI 10463. Type CF2 5340 toxin gene nucleotide sequences and deduced amino acid sequences showed a strong resemblance to those of the previously described variant C. difficile strain 1470, a strain reported to have reduced pathogenicity and no association with clinical illness in humans. REA of strain 1470 identified this strain as a distinct type (CF1) within the same REA group as the closely related type CF2. A review of our clinical-isolate collection identified five additional patients infected with type CF2, three of whom had documented CDAD. PCR amplification of the 3′ end of tcdA demonstrated identical 1.8-kb deletions in all seven type CF2 isolates. REA type CF2 is a toxin variant strain of C. difficile that retains the ability to cause disease in humans but is not detected in clinical immunoassays for toxin A. PMID:10992443

  13. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  14. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  15. Extending the durability of cultivar resistance by limiting epidemic growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolan, Kevin; Helps, Joe; van den Berg, Femke; Bain, Ruairidh; Paveley, Neil; van den Bosch, Frank

    2017-09-27

    Cultivar resistance is an essential part of disease control programmes in many agricultural systems. The use of resistant cultivars applies a selection pressure on pathogen populations for the evolution of virulence, resulting in loss of disease control. Various techniques for the deployment of host resistance genes have been proposed to reduce the selection for virulence, but these are often difficult to apply in practice. We present a general technique to maintain the effectiveness of cultivar resistance. Derived from classical population genetics theory; any factor that reduces the population growth rates of both the virulent and avirulent strains will reduce selection. We model the specific example of fungicide application to reduce the growth rates of virulent and avirulent strains of a pathogen, demonstrating that appropriate use of fungicides reduces selection for virulence, prolonging cultivar resistance. This specific example of chemical control illustrates a general principle for the development of techniques to manage the evolution of virulence by slowing epidemic growth rates. © 2017 The Author(s).

  16. Cell Phones ≠ Self and Other Problems with Big Data Detection and Containment during Epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Susan L

    2018-03-08

    Evidence from Sierra Leone reveals the significant limitations of big data in disease detection and containment efforts. Early in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, media heralded HealthMap's ability to detect the outbreak from newsfeeds. Later, big data-specifically, call detail record data collected from millions of cell phones-was hyped as useful for stopping the disease by tracking contagious people. It did not work. In this article, I trace the causes of big data's containment failures. During epidemics, big data experiments can have opportunity costs: namely, forestalling urgent response. Finally, what counts as data during epidemics must include that coming from anthropological technologies because they are so useful for detection and containment. © 2018 The Authors Medical Anthropology Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Anthropological Association.

  17. Genetic structure and natural variation associated with host of origin in Penicillium expansum strains causing blue mould.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanzani, S M; Montemurro, C; Di Rienzo, V; Solfrizzo, M; Ippolito, A

    2013-07-15

    Blue mould, caused by Penicillium expansum, is one of the most economically damaging postharvest diseases of pome fruits, although it may affect a wider host range, including sweet cherries and table grapes. Several reports on the role of mycotoxins in plant pathogenesis have been published, but few focussed on the influence of mycotoxins on the variation in host preference amongst producing fungi. In the present study the influence of the host on P. expansum pathogenicity/virulence was investigated, focussing mainly on the relationship with patulin production. Three P. expansum strain groups, originating from apples, sweet cherries, and table grapes (7 strains per host) were grown on their hosts of isolation and on artificial media derived from them. Strains within each P. expansum group proved to be more aggressive and produced more patulin than the other two groups under evaluation when grown on the host from which they originated. Table grape strains were the most aggressive (81% disease incidence) and strongest patulin producers (up to 554μg/g). The difference in aggressiveness amongst strains was appreciable only in the presence of a living host, suggesting that the complex pathogen-host interaction significantly influenced the ability of P. expansum to cause the disease. Incidence/severity of the disease and patulin production proved to be positively correlated, supporting the role of patulin as virulence/pathogenicity factor. The existence of genetic variation amongst isolates was confirmed by the High Resolution Melting method that was set up herein, which permitted discrimination of P. expansum from other species (P. chrysogenum and P. crustosum) and, within the same species, amongst the host of origin. Host effect on toxin production appeared to be exerted at a transcriptional level. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christenson, Bernard

    2008-01-01

    Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

  19. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  20. Septicaemia and meningitis caused by infection of New Zealand sea lion pups with a hypermucoviscous strain of Klebsiella pneumoniae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roe, W D; Rogers, L; Pinpimai, K; Dittmer, K; Marshall, J; Chilvers, B L

    2015-04-17

    This study describes a syndrome of neonatal septicemia and meningitis in New Zealand sea lions, caused by a strain of Klebsiella pneumoniae that is phenotypically similar to strains causing environmentally-acquired septicemia and neuro-invasive disease in humans. Between late 2006 and early 2010, 123 pups from the Enderby Island breeding colony died of K. pneumoniae infection, with lesions including fibrinous to fibrinosuppurative meningitis, subdural hemorrhage, septic arthritis, herniation and hemorrhage of the cerebellar vermis, lymphadenitis and cellulitis. This infection was responsible for 58% of observed pup mortality over this time period, with most deaths occurring in the latter part of the breeding season (mid February onwards). The results of this study suggest that the pattern of this disease has changed since it was first described in 2002, when most deaths occurred early in the season (early to mid-January), and that it is an important and consistent cause of pup mortality in this population. In addition, a similar disease syndrome and bacterial strain was diagnosed in a single pup in a fragile recolonizing New Zealand sea lion population on mainland New Zealand, and the potential effect on this population is unknown but could have a negative impact on recolonisation at this site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Low dimensional chaotic models for the plague epidemic in Bombay (1896–1911)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain

    2015-01-01

    A plague epidemic broke out in Bombay in 1896 and became endemic. From 1905 to 1911, the epidemic was closely monitored by an Advisory Committee appointed to investigate the causes of the disease in any way. An impressive quantity of information was gathered, analyzed and published. Published data include records of the number of people who died from plague, and of the two main populations of rodents which were infected by plague in Bombay city. In the present paper, these data are revisited using a global modeling technique. This technique is applied to both single and multivariate observational time series. Several models are obtained for which a chaotic behavior can be observed. Obtaining such models proves that the dynamics of plague can be approximated by low-dimensional deterministic systems that can produce chaos. The multivariate models give a strong argument for interactive couplings between the epidemic and the epizootics of the two main species of rat. An interpretation of this coupling is given.

  2. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  3. Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Gaëlle; Tisseuil, Clément; Conte, Annamaria; Allepuz, Alberto; Pioz, Maryline; Lancelot, Renaud; Gilbert, Marius

    2018-01-01

    Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  5. Virulence potential of Escherichia coli strains causing asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavigne, Jean-Philippe; Boutet-Dubois, Adeline; Laouini, Dorsaf; Combescure, Christophe; Bouziges, Nicole; Marès, Pierre; Sotto, Albert

    2011-11-01

    We compared the virulence properties of a collection of asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU) Escherichia coli strains to urinary tract infection (UTI) strains isolated from pregnant women in a university hospital over 1 year. The in vitro and in vivo studies suggest that ABU strains presented a virulence behavior similar to that of strains isolated from cases of cystitis.

  6. Could viruses contribute to the worldwide epidemic of obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Richard L

    2008-01-01

    The prevalence of obesity in children increased rapidly starting about 1980 in both developed and developing countries. Studies of changes in diet and physical activity, television watching, and food advertisements on television suggest that these are not sufficient to explain the epidemic. The pattern of rapid spread is suggestive of an infectious origin. The concept of virus-induced obesity is not new. Eight viruses have been shown to cause obesity in animals and there is evidence for virus-induced obesity in humans. Recent evidence on animal and human adenoviruses suggests that these adenoviruses may infect adipocytes to alter enzymes and transcription factors resulting in accumulation of triglycerides and differentiation of preadipocytes into mature adipocytes. The E4orf1 gene of Ad-36 has been shown to be responsible for the adipogenic effect. It appears that a portion of the worldwide epidemic of obesity since 1980 could be due to infections with human adenoviruses.

  7. Optimal information dissemination strategy to promote preventive behaviors in multilayer epidemic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakeri, Heman; Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Scoglio, Caterina; Poggi-Corradini, Pietro; Preciado, Victor M

    2015-06-01

    Launching a prevention campaign to contain the spread of infection requires substantial financial investments; therefore, a trade-off exists between suppressing the epidemic and containing costs. Information exchange among individuals can occur as physical contacts (e.g., word of mouth, gatherings), which provide inherent possibilities of disease transmission, and non-physical contacts (e.g., email, social networks), through which information can be transmitted but the infection cannot be transmitted. Contact network (CN) incorporates physical contacts, and the information dissemination network (IDN) represents non-physical contacts, thereby generating a multilayer network structure. Inherent differences between these two layers cause alerting through CN to be more effective but more expensive than IDN. The constraint for an epidemic to die out derived from a nonlinear Perron-Frobenius problem that was transformed into a semi-definite matrix inequality and served as a constraint for a convex optimization problem. This method guarantees a dying-out epidemic by choosing the best nodes for adopting preventive behaviors with minimum monetary resources. Various numerical simulations with network models and a real-world social network validate our method.

  8. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  9. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  10. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  11. Genomic and bioinformatics analyses of HAdV-4vac and HAdV-7vac, two human adenovirus (HAdV) strains that constituted original prophylaxis against HAdV-related acute respiratory disease, a reemerging epidemic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkayastha, Anjan; Su, Jing; McGraw, John; Ditty, Susan E; Hadfield, Ted L; Seto, Jason; Russell, Kevin L; Tibbetts, Clark; Seto, Donald

    2005-07-01

    Vaccine strains of human adenovirus serotypes 4 and 7 (HAdV-4vac and HAdV-7vac) have been used successfully to prevent adenovirus-related acute respiratory disease outbreaks. The genomes of these two vaccine strains have been sequenced, annotated, and compared with their prototype equivalents with the goals of understanding their genomes for molecular diagnostics applications, vaccine redevelopment, and HAdV pathoepidemiology. These reference genomes are archived in GenBank as HAdV-4vac (35,994 bp; AY594254) and HAdV-7vac (35,240 bp; AY594256). Bioinformatics and comparative whole-genome analyses with their recently reported and archived prototype genomes reveal six mismatches and four insertions-deletions (indels) between the HAdV-4 prototype and vaccine strains, in contrast to the 611 mismatches and 130 indels between the HAdV-7 prototype and vaccine strains. Annotation reveals that the HAdV-4vac and HAdV-7vac genomes contain 51 and 50 coding units, respectively. Neither vaccine strain appears to be attenuated for virulence based on bioinformatics analyses. There is evidence of genome recombination, as the inverted terminal repeat of HAdV-4vac is initially identical to that of species C whereas the prototype is identical to species B1. These vaccine reference sequences yield unique genome signatures for molecular diagnostics. As a molecular forensics application, these references identify the circulating and problematic 1950s era field strains as the original HAdV-4 prototype and the Greider prototype, from which the vaccines are derived. Thus, they are useful for genomic comparisons to current epidemic and reemerging field strains, as well as leading to an understanding of pathoepidemiology among the human adenoviruses.

  12. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  13. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  14. An Emerging Tick-Borne Disease of Humans Is Caused by a Subset of Strains with Conserved Genome Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbet, Anthony F.; Al-Khedery, Basima; Stuen, Snorre; Granquist, Erik G.; Felsheim, Roderick F.; Munderloh, Ulrike G.

    2013-01-01

    The prevalence of tick-borne diseases is increasing worldwide. One such emerging disease is human anaplasmosis. The causative organism, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, is known to infect multiple animal species and cause human fatalities in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Although long known to infect ruminants, it is unclear why there are increasing numbers of human infections. We analyzed the genome sequences of strains infecting humans, animals and ticks from diverse geographic locations. Despite extensive variability amongst these strains, those infecting humans had conserved genome structure including the pfam01617 superfamily that encodes the major, neutralization-sensitive, surface antigen. These data provide potential targets to identify human-infective strains and have significance for understanding the selective pressures that lead to emergence of disease in new species. PMID:25437207

  15. Deletion of a 197-Amino-Acid Region in the N-Terminal Domain of Spike Protein Attenuates Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in Piglets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yixuan; Lin, Chun-Ming; Yokoyama, Masaru; Yount, Boyd L; Marthaler, Douglas; Douglas, Arianna L; Ghimire, Shristi; Qin, Yibin; Baric, Ralph S; Saif, Linda J; Wang, Qiuhong

    2017-07-15

    We previously isolated a porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) strain, PC177, by blind serial passaging of the intestinal contents of a diarrheic piglet in Vero cell culture. Compared with the highly virulent U.S. PEDV strain PC21A, the tissue culture-adapted PC177 (TC-PC177) contains a 197-amino-acid (aa) deletion in the N-terminal domain of the spike (S) protein. We orally inoculated neonatal, conventional suckling piglets with TC-PC177 or PC21A to compare their pathogenicities. Within 7 days postinoculation, TC-PC177 caused mild diarrhea and lower fecal viral RNA shedding, with no mortality, whereas PC21A caused severe clinical signs and 55% mortality. To investigate whether infection with TC-PC177 can induce cross-protection against challenge with a highly virulent PEDV strain, all the surviving piglets were challenged with PC21A at 3 weeks postinoculation. Compared with 100% protection in piglets initially inoculated with PC21A, 88% and 100% TC-PC177- and mock-inoculated piglets had diarrhea following challenge, respectively, indicating incomplete cross-protection. To investigate whether this 197-aa deletion was the determinant for the attenuation of TC-PC177, we generated a mutant (icPC22A-S1Δ197) bearing the 197-aa deletion from an infectious cDNA clone of the highly virulent PEDV PC22A strain (infectious clone PC22A, icPC22A). In neonatal gnotobiotic pigs, the icPC22A-S1Δ197 virus caused mild to moderate diarrhea, lower titers of viral shedding, and no mortality, whereas the icPC22A virus caused severe diarrhea and 100% mortality. Our data indicate that deletion of this 197-aa fragment in the spike protein can attenuate a highly virulent PEDV, but the virus may lose important epitopes for inducing robust protective immunity. IMPORTANCE The emerging, highly virulent PEDV strains have caused substantial economic losses worldwide. However, the virulence determinants are not established. In this study, we found that a 197-aa deletion in the N-terminal region

  16. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  17. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  18. Evidence that dirty electricity is causing the worldwide epidemics of obesity and diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milham, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The epidemics of obesity and diabetes most apparent in recent years had their origins with Thomas Edison's development of distributed electricity in New York City in 1882. His original direct current (DC) generators suffered serious commutator brush arcing which is a major source of high-frequency voltage transients (dirty electricity). From the onset of the electrical grid, electrified populations have been exposed to dirty electricity. Diesel generator sets are a major source of dirty electricity today and are used almost universally to electrify small islands and places unreachable by the conventional electric grid. This accounts for the fact that diabetes prevalence, fasting plasma glucose and obesity are highest on small islands and other places electrified by generator sets and lowest in places with low levels of electrification like sub-Saharan Africa and east and Southeast Asia.

  19. Hepatitis A virus strains circulating during 1997-2015 in Campania, a Southern Italy region with periodic outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costantino, Angela; Coppola, Nicola; Spada, Enea; Bruni, Roberto; Taffon, Stefania; Equestre, Michele; Marcantonio, Cinzia; Sagnelli, Caterina; Dell'Isola, Chiara; Tosone, Grazia; Mascolo, Silvia; Sagnelli, Evangelista; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita

    2017-11-01

    In Italy, the incidence of hepatitis A has progressively declined over the last 30 years, though not homogeneously throughout the country. In Campania, Southern Italy, high annual incidence rates have been reported and several periodic outbreaks have occurred. To investigate the phylogenetic and epidemiologic relationships among HAV strains circulating in Campania over the period 1997-2015, 87 hepatitis A cases were investigated. The most frequent risk factor was the consumption of raw/undercooked shellfish (75/87, 86.2%). During 1997-2002 most viral strains were subtype IA (16/23, 70%); the phylogenetic pattern suggests that the incidence peaks observed in 2000-2001 had likely been caused by multiple strains. During a large 2004 outbreak, almost all viral variants were subtype IB (38/41, 93%); most of them (22/38, 58%) were recognized to be one of two main strains (differing for just a single nucleotide), the remaining sequences were strictly related variants. In 2014/2015, only IA strains were observed; two phylogenetically related but distinct strains were responsible, respectively, for a small cluster in 2014 and an outbreak in 2015. In each outbreak, several strains unrelated to those responsible for most cases were detected in a minority of patients, documenting a background of sporadic cases occurring even in the course of outbreaks; some of them proved to be identical to strains detected 11-14 years previously. Overall, the data suggest that several related and unrelated HAV strains have endemically circulated over the last 15 years in Campania, with some strains gaining epidemic transmission likely because of a local combination of multiple factors, including inadequate waste water purification and dietary habits. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Influenza A (H10N7) Virus Causes Respiratory Tract Disease in Harbor Seals and Ferrets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brand, Judith M A; Wohlsein, Peter; Herfst, Sander; Bodewes, Rogier; Pfankuche, Vanessa M; van de Bildt, Marco W G; Seehusen, Frauke; Puff, Christina; Richard, Mathilde; Siebert, Ursula; Lehnert, Kristina; Bestebroer, Theo; Lexmond, Pascal; Fouchier, Ron A M; Prenger-Berninghoff, Ellen; Herbst, Werner; Koopmans, Marion; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Kuiken, Thijs; Baumgärtner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    Avian influenza viruses sporadically cross the species barrier to mammals, including humans, in which they may cause epidemic disease. Recently such an epidemic occurred due to the emergence of avian influenza virus of the subtype H10N7 (Seal/H10N7) in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina). This epidemic

  1. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    of meningococci, and neither possesses antitoxic power. The mixture of antiserum with lysol and with protargol reduces to a certain extent the antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effect of the chemicals; but this action is insufficient to set aside wholly the injurious effects which they produce. It follows, therefore, that whatever theoretical advantages might accrue from a bactericidal activity exerted by these chemicals independently of the type of meningococcus causing epidemic meningitis, is more than offset by the harmful effects which they cause. Hence specific antiserum seems to provide the logical therapeutic agent with which to combat epidemic meningitis, since it is itself innocuous and promotes those processes essential to recovery from the disease. The problem up to the present has been that of producing an antiserum which represents the several types of the meningococcus, and this problem is now in a fair way to being solved.

  2. Canine distemper virus in the Serengeti ecosystem: molecular adaptation to different carnivore species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolin, Veljko M; Olarte-Castillo, Ximena A; Osterrieder, Nikolaus; Hofer, Heribert; Dubovi, Edward; Mazzoni, Camila J; Brunner, Edgar; Goller, Katja V; Fyumagwa, Robert D; Moehlman, Patricia D; Thierer, Dagmar; East, Marion L

    2017-04-01

    Was the 1993/1994 fatal canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in lions and spotted hyaenas in the Serengeti ecosystem caused by the recent spillover of a virulent domestic dog strain or one well adapted to these noncanids? We examine this question using sequence data from 13 'Serengeti' strains including five complete genomes obtained between 1993 and 2011. Phylogenetic and haplotype network analyses reveal that strains from noncanids during the epidemic were more closely related to each other than to those from domestic or wild canids. All noncanid 'Serengeti' strains during the epidemic encoded: (1) one novel substitution G134S in the CDV-V protein; and (2) the rare amino acid combination 519I/549H at two sites under positive selection in the region of the CDV-H protein that binds to SLAM (CD 150) host cell receptors. Worldwide, only a few noncanid strains in the America II lineage encode CDV-H 519I/549H. All canid 'Serengeti' strains during the epidemic coded CDV-V 134G, and CDV-H 519R/549Y, or 519R/549H. A functional assay of cell entry revealed the highest performance by CDV-H proteins encoding 519I/549H in cells expressing lion SLAM receptors, and the highest performance by proteins encoding 519R/549Y, typical of dog strains worldwide, in cells expressing dog SLAM receptors. Our findings are consistent with an epidemic in lions and hyaenas caused by CDV variants better adapted to noncanids than canids, but not with the recent spillover of a dog strain. Our study reveals a greater complexity of CDV molecular epidemiology in multihost environments than previously thought. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus 3C-Like Protease-Mediated Nucleocapsid Processing: Possible Link to Viral Cell Culture Adaptability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaru-Ampornpan, Peera; Jengarn, Juggragarn; Wanitchang, Asawin; Jongkaewwattana, Anan

    2017-01-15

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes severe diarrhea and high mortality rates in newborn piglets, leading to massive losses to the swine industry worldwide during recent epidemics. Intense research efforts are now focusing on defining viral characteristics that confer a growth advantage, pathogenicity, or cell adaptability in order to better understand the PEDV life cycle and identify suitable targets for antiviral or vaccine development. Here, we report a unique phenomenon of PEDV nucleocapsid (N) cleavage by the PEDV-encoded 3C-like protease (3Cpro) during infection. The identification of the 3Cpro cleavage site at the C terminus of N supported previous observations that PEDV 3Cpro showed a substrate requirement slightly different from that of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) 3Cpro and revealed a greater flexibility in its substrate recognition site. This cleavage motif is present in the majority of cell culture-adapted PEDV strains but is missing in emerging field isolates. Remarkably, reverse-genetics-derived cell culture-adapted PEDV AVCT12 harboring uncleavable N displayed growth retardation in Vero E6-APN cells compared to the wild-type virus. These observations altogether shed new light on the investigation and characterization of the PEDV nucleocapsid protein and its possible link to cell culture adaptation. Recurrent PEDV outbreaks have resulted in enormous economic losses to swine industries worldwide. To gain the upper hand in combating this disease, it is necessary to understand how this virus replicates and evades host immunity. Characterization of viral proteins provides important clues to mechanisms by which viruses survive and spread. Here, we characterized an intriguing phenomenon in which the nucleocapsids of some PEDV strains are proteolytically processed by the virally encoded main protease. Growth retardation in recombinant PEDV carrying uncleavable N suggests a replication advantage provided by the cleavage

  4. Landscape changes in the environment due to military actions and their epidemic risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krushelnitsky A.D.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the influence of the military-ecological and man-caused-anthropogenic factors on the environment state and natural processes. Epidemic risks and consequences resulted from landscapic changes of the environment which arise as a result of war and destruction of ecosystems are described.

  5. Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sun, G.Q.; Liu, Q.X.; Jin, Z.; Chakraborty, A.; Li, B.L.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction of disease can be explained by the patterns of epidemic spreading, yet the underlying causes of extinction are far from being well understood. To reveal a mechanism of disease extinction, a cellular automata model with both birth, death rate and migration is presented. We find that, in

  6. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  7. Genetic Relatedness among Nontypeable Pneumococci Implicated in Sporadic Cases of Conjunctivitis

    OpenAIRE

    Barker, Jason H.; Musher, Daniel M.; Silberman, Ronald; Phan, Hoang M.; Watson, David A.

    1999-01-01

    Nontypeable Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of epidemic conjunctivitis. A previous molecular fingerprinting study identified a clone of nontypeable pneumococcus that was responsible for a recent outbreak of conjunctivitis. In the present study, we examined the extent to which pneumococci that cause sporadic cases of conjunctivitis are related to this epidemic strain. Using arbitrarily primed BOX-PCR, we have determined that, of 10 nontypeable pneumococci causing sporadic conjunctiv...

  8. Failure to demonstrate experimental vertical transmission of the epidemic strain of Chikungunya virus in Aedes albopictus from La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Vazeille

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Aedes albopictus was responsible for transmission in the first outbreak of chikungunya (CHIK on La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, in 2005-2006. The magnitude of the outbreak on this island, which had been free of arboviral diseases for over 30 years, as well as the efficiency of Ae. albopictus as the main vector, raises questions about the maintenance of the CHIK virus (CHIKV through vertical transmission mechanisms. Few specimens collected from the field as larvae were found to be infected. In this study, Ae. albopictus originating from La Réunion were orally infected with a blood-meal containing 10(8 pfu/mL of the CHIKV epidemic strain (CHIKV 06.21. Eggs from the first and second gonotrophic cycles were collected and raised to the adult stage. The infectious status of the progeny was checked (i by immunofluorescence on head squashes of individual mosquitoes to detect the presence of viral particles or (ii by quantitative RT-PCR on mosquito pools to detect viral RNA. We analysed a total of 1,675 specimens from the first gonotrophic cycle and 1,709 from the second gonotrophic cycle without detecting any viral particles or viral RNA. These laboratory results are compared to field records.

  9. Ethics, health policy, and Zika: From emergency to global epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamrozik, Euzebiusz; Selgelid, Michael J

    2018-05-01

    Zika virus was recognised in 2016 as an important vector-borne cause of congenital malformations and Guillain-Barré syndrome, during a major epidemic in Latin America, centred in Northeastern Brazil. The WHO and Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO), with partner agencies, initiated a coordinated global response including public health intervention and urgent scientific research, as well as ethical analysis as a vital element of policy design. In this paper, we summarise the major ethical issues raised during the Zika epidemic, highlighting the PAHO ethics guidance and the role of ethics in emergency responses, before turning to ethical issues that are yet to be resolved. Zika raises traditional bioethical issues related to reproduction, prenatal diagnosis of serious malformations and unjust disparities in health outcomes. But the epidemic has also highlighted important issues of growing interest in public health ethics, such as the international spread of infectious disease; the central importance of reproductive healthcare in preventing maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality; diagnostic and reporting biases; vector control and the links between vectors, climate change, and disparities in the global burden of disease. Finally, there are controversies regarding Zika vaccine research and eventual deployment. Zika virus was a neglected disease for over 50 years before the outbreak in Brazil. As it continues to spread, public health agencies should promote gender equity and disease control efforts in Latin America, while preparing for the possibility of a global epidemic. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  10. Disease load at conception predicts survival in later epidemics in a historical French-Canadian cohort, suggesting functional trans-generational effects in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Willführ

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Functional trans-generational and parental effects are potentially important determinants of health in several mammals. For humans, the existing evidence is weak. We investigate whether disease exposure triggers functional trans-generational response effects among humans by analyzing siblings who were conceived under different disease loads, and comparing their mortality in later epidemics. Under functional trans-generational response mechanisms, we expect that those who were conceived under high pathogenic stress load will have relatively low mortality during a later epidemic. METHODS: We use data from the Registre de la Population du Québec Ancien, which covers the historical population living in St. Lawrence Valley, Québec, Canada. Children born in 1705-1724 were grouped according to their exposure during conception to the measles 1714-15 epidemic. The 1714-15 epidemic was followed by two mortality crises in 1729-1734. The cause of the first crises in 1729 is not exactly known. The second crisis in 1732 was caused by a smallpox epidemic. Using proportional hazard Cox regression models with multivariate adjustment and with fixed-effects approach that compare siblings, we analyze whether mortality in 1729-1734 is affected by exposure to the 1714-15 epidemic. RESULTS: Children who were conceived during the peak of the measles epidemic of 1714-15 exhibited significantly lower mortality during the 1729-1734 crisis than those who were born before the 1714-15 epidemic (mortality hazard ratio 0.106, p<.05 in multivariate adjusted models; 0.142 p<.1 in sibling comparison models. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with a trans-generational mechanism that functionally responds to pathogen stress and suggest that early disease exposure may be protective later in life. Alternative explanations for the mortality patterns are discussed and shown to be problematic.

  11. Vaccine efficacy in senescent mice challenged with recombinant SARS-CoV bearing epidemic and zoonotic spike variants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damon Deming

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2003, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV was identified as the etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome, a disease characterized by severe pneumonia that sometimes results in death. SARS-CoV is a zoonotic virus that crossed the species barrier, most likely originating from bats or from other species including civets, raccoon dogs, domestic cats, swine, and rodents. A SARS-CoV vaccine should confer long-term protection, especially in vulnerable senescent populations, against both the 2003 epidemic strains and zoonotic strains that may yet emerge from animal reservoirs. We report the comprehensive investigation of SARS vaccine efficacy in young and senescent mice following homologous and heterologous challenge.Using Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus replicon particles (VRP expressing the 2003 epidemic Urbani SARS-CoV strain spike (S glycoprotein (VRP-S or the nucleocapsid (N protein from the same strain (VRP-N, we demonstrate that VRP-S, but not VRP-N vaccines provide complete short- and long-term protection against homologous strain challenge in young and senescent mice. To test VRP vaccine efficacy against a heterologous SARS-CoV, we used phylogenetic analyses, synthetic biology, and reverse genetics to construct a chimeric virus (icGDO3-S encoding a synthetic S glycoprotein gene of the most genetically divergent human strain, GDO3, which clusters among the zoonotic SARS-CoV. icGD03-S replicated efficiently in human airway epithelial cells and in the lungs of young and senescent mice, and was highly resistant to neutralization with antisera directed against the Urbani strain. Although VRP-S vaccines provided complete short-term protection against heterologous icGD03-S challenge in young mice, only limited protection was seen in vaccinated senescent animals. VRP-N vaccines not only failed to protect from homologous or heterologous challenge, but resulted in enhanced immunopathology with eosinophilic

  12. Evolution of Sequence Type 4821 Clonal Complex Meningococcal Strains in China from Prequinolone to Quinolone Era, 1972–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qinglan; Mustapha, Mustapha M.; Chen, Mingliang; Qu, Di; Zhang, Xi; Harrison, Lee H.

    2018-01-01

    The expansion of hypervirulent sequence type 4821 clonal complex (CC4821) lineage Neisseria meningitidis bacteria has led to a shift in meningococcal disease epidemiology in China, from serogroup A (MenA) to MenC. Knowledge of the evolution and genetic origin of the emergent MenC strains is limited. In this study, we subjected 76 CC4821 isolates collected across China during 1972–1977 and 2005–2013 to phylogenetic analysis, traditional genotyping, or both. We show that successive recombination events within genes encoding surface antigens and acquisition of quinolone resistance mutations possibly played a role in the emergence of CC4821 as an epidemic clone in China. MenC and MenB CC4821 strains have spread across China and have been detected in several countries in different continents. Capsular switches involving serogroups B and C occurred among epidemic strains, raising concerns regarding possible increases in MenB disease, given that vaccines in use in China do not protect against MenB. PMID:29553310

  13. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenço, José; Recker, Mario

    2014-08-01

    Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  14. The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Consumer Expenditures:An Empirical Assessment for MERS Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Jung

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the effect of an epidemic outbreak on consumer expenditures. In light of scanner panel data on consumers’ debit and credit card transactions, we present empirical evidence that outbreaks cause considerable disruption in total consumer expenditures with significant heterogeneity across categories. Our findings strongly imply that customers alter their behaviors to reduce the risk of infection. The estimated effect of an epidemic outbreak is qualitatively different from that of other macroeconomic factors. The implications of this research provide important guidance for policy interventions and marketing decisions aimed at sustaining economic growth.

  15. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  16. Timing of the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in Ethiopia based on early virus strains and subsequent virus diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abebe, A.; Lukashov, V. V.; Pollakis, G.; Kliphuis, A.; Fontanet, A. L.; Goudsmit, J.; Rinke de Wit, T. F.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To trace the introduction of HIV-1 subtype C into Ethiopia based on virus diversification during the epidemic. DESIGN: A set of 474 serum samples obtained in Ethiopia in 1982-1985 was tested for HIV-1. HIV-1 env gp120 V3 and gag or pol regions were sequenced and analysed together with

  17. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  18. Tracking the Origin and Deciphering the Phylogenetic Relationship of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maritza Barrera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2010, new Chinese strains of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV, clinically more severe than the classical strains, emerged. These strains were spread to United States in 2013 through an intercontinental transmission from China with further spreading across the world, evidencing the emergent nature of these strains. In the present study, an analysis of PEDV field sequences from Ecuador was conducted by comparing all the PEDV S gene sequences available in the GenBank database. Phylogenetic comparisons and Bayesian phylogeographic inference based on complete S gene sequences were also conducted to track the origin and putative route of PEDV. The sequence from the PED-outbreak in Ecuador was grouped into the clade II of PEDV genogroup 2a together with other sequences of isolates from Mexico, Canada, and United States. The phylogeographic study revealed the emergence of the Chinese PEDV strains, followed by spreading to US in 2013, from US to Korea, and later the introduction of PEDV to Canada, Mexico, and Ecuador directly from the US. The sources of imports of live swine in Ecuador in 2014 were mainly from Chile and US. Thus, this movement of pigs is suggested as the main way for introducing PEDV to Ecuador.

  19. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  20. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  1. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  2. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  3. Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gönci, Balázs; Németh, Valéria; Balogh, Emeric; Szabó, Bálint; Dénes, Ádám; Környei, Zsuzsanna; Vicsek, Tamás

    2010-12-20

    Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

  4. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  5. Survival and Growth of Epidemically Successful and Nonsuccessful Salmonella enterica Clones after Freezing and Dehydration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Karoline; Aabo, Søren; Birk, Tina

    2012-01-01

    The spread of epidemically successful nontyphoidal Salmonella clones has been suggested as the most important cause of salmonellosis in industrialized countries. Factors leading to the emergence of success clones are largely unknown, but their ability to survive and grow after physical stress may...

  6. The psychiatric epidemic in the American workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, C M

    1988-01-01

    make renouncement tantamount to betrayal. The mass psychogenic illness or psychiatric epidemic that occurs in the workplace offers an opportunity not only to study the elements of a biopsychosocial system, but also offers opportunities for medical anthropological studies that relate the causes and courses of specific episodes of MPI to the cultures of the individuals who develop symptoms and the cultures of the area in which the epidemic occurs.

  7. Evidence for Increased Aggressiveness in a Recent Widespread Strain of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici Causing Stripe Rust of Wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milus, Eugene A; Kristensen, Kristian; Hovmøller, Mogens S

    2009-01-01

    Stripe rust (yellow rust) of wheat, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, has become more severe in eastern United States, Australia, and elsewhere since 2000. Recent research has shown that this coincided with a global spread of two closely related strains that were similar based on vir...... that wheat rust fungi can adapt to warmer temperatures and cause severe disease in previously unfavorable environments......Stripe rust (yellow rust) of wheat, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, has become more severe in eastern United States, Australia, and elsewhere since 2000. Recent research has shown that this coincided with a global spread of two closely related strains that were similar based...... regimes for latent period, lesion length, lesion width, lesion area, and spore production on adult plants of a susceptible wheat cultivar with no known genes for resistance to stripe rust. "New" isolates (since 2000) were significantly more aggressive than "old" isolates (before 2000) for all variables...

  8. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  9. Genomic Characterization of Urethritis-Associated Neisseria meningitidis Shows that a Wide Range of N. meningitidis Strains Can Cause Urethritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Kevin C; Unemo, Magnus; Jeverica, Samo; Kirkcaldy, Robert D; Takahashi, Hideyuki; Ohnishi, Makoto; Grad, Yonatan H

    2017-12-01

    Neisseria meningitidis , typically a resident of the oro- or nasopharynx and the causative agent of meningococcal meningitis and meningococcemia, is capable of invading and colonizing the urogenital tract. This can result in urethritis, akin to the syndrome caused by its sister species, N. gonorrhoeae , the etiologic agent of gonorrhea. Recently, meningococcal strains associated with outbreaks of urethritis were reported to share genetic characteristics with the gonococcus, raising the question of the extent to which these strains contain features that promote adaptation to the genitourinary niche, making them gonococcus-like and distinguishing them from other N. meningitidis strains. Here, we analyzed the genomes of 39 diverse N. meningitidis isolates associated with urethritis, collected independently over a decade and across three continents. In particular, we characterized the diversity of the nitrite reductase gene ( aniA ), the factor H-binding protein gene ( fHbp ), and the capsule biosynthetic locus, all of which are loci previously suggested to be associated with urogenital colonization. We observed notable diversity, including frameshift variants, in aniA and fHbp and the presence of intact, disrupted, and absent capsule biosynthetic genes, indicating that urogenital colonization and urethritis caused by N. meningitidis are possible across a range of meningococcal genotypes. Previously identified allelic patterns in urethritis-associated N. meningitidis strains may reflect genetic diversity in the underlying meningococcal population rather than novel adaptation to the urogenital tract. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  10. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A comprehensive review of a growing epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Kareem; Bhalla, Varun; Ezz El Regal, Mohammed; A-Kader, H Hesham

    2014-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is quickly becoming one of the most prominent causes of liver disease worldwide. The increasing incidence of NAFLD is tied to the obesity epidemic and the subsequent metabolic derangements brought along with it. Current efforts to elucidate the mechanism and causes of the disease have answered some questions, but much remains unknown about NAFLD. The aim of this article is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of the disease, as well as the current and future diagnostic, preventative, and therapeutic options available to clinicians for the management of NAFLD. PMID:25232245

  11. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  12. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  13. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  14. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  15. Comparative analysis of virulence traits between a Legionella feeleii strain implicated in Pontiac fever and a strain that caused Legionnaires' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Changle; Saito, Mitsumasa; Tanaka, Tamami; Amako, Kazunobu; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2015-12-01

    Legionella strains of the same species and serogroup are known to cause Legionnaires' disease (a potentially fatal atypical pneumonia) or Pontiac fever (a mild, flu-like disease), but the bacterial factors that define these dramatic differences in pathology have not been elucidated. To gain a better understanding of these factors, we compared the characteristics of Legionella feeleii strains that were isolated from either a sample of freshwater implicated in an outbreak of Pontiac fever (ATCC 35072, serogroup 1, LfPF), or a patient with Legionnaires' disease (ATCC 38549, serogroup 2, LfLD). Growth of LfPF and LfLD in BYE broth was slower than the positive control, Legionella pneumophila strain JR32. However, LfLD grew faster than LfPF at 42 °C. After in vitro infection to J774 murine or U937 human macrophage cell lines and A549 human lung epithelial cell line, LfLD showed a higher cell infection rate, stronger internalization by host cells, and greater cytotoxicity than that of LfPF. Large amounts of IL-6 and IL-8 were secreted by human host cells after infection with LfLD, but not with LfPF. LfLD possessed mono-polar flagellum while LfPF was unflagellated. When LfLD was cultured at 25, 30 and 37 °C, the bacteria had higher motility rate at lower temperatures. Based on our results, this is the first study that showed distinct characteristics between LfPF and LfLD, which may give important leads in elucidating differences in their virulence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  17. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  18. A sewage disposal failure as a cause of ascariasis and giardiasis epidemic in a family.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totkova, A; Klobusicky, M; Holkova, R; Valent, M; Stojkovicova, H

    2004-01-01

    In monitoring the incidence of intestinal parasites in children and employees of a nursery the authors examined 31 children with 8 (25.81%) and 16 employees with 3 (18.75%) positive results. The authors wanted to examine also the family members of 8 positive children and 3 positive employees but except from the cleaner's family, (Ascaris lumburicoides, Enterobius vermicularis and Entamoeba coli) nobody accepted the offer. All 8 members of a large family except for Patient 1 (a cleaner) and her grandson were without clinical and laboratory findings. They constitute 3 independent families who lived in 1st category flats. On August 31 there was an extensive sewage disposal failure in the ground floor flat of Family II and the flat was flooded by sewage. All family members worked solidarily on cleaning and also the members of Family IV who are friends of Family II. As shown by clinical symptoms of 'virosis', during the pre-patent period and after an outbreak within 73-78 days, laboratory findings of the family members demonstrated a severe family infection equal to a epidemic of intestinal parasitosis. Ascaris lumbricoides was diagnosed in 8 family members (61.54%) and Giardia intestinalis in 7 family members (53.85%) involved in cleaning. Enterobius vermicularis was found in 2 and Etamoeba coli in 1 family member. In monitored persons, in extreme hygienic conditions during the failure and later, a mass contraction arose on the basis of infection. The fact, that family epidemic arose subsequently, proved, in contrast to sporadic findings in children and adults, a 6.4 and 3.3 times higher incidence of Ascaris lumbricoides and a 5.6 and 8.6 times higher incidence of Giardia intestinalis. The authors discus the reasons of incidence and also preventive measures in population. (Tab. 3, Ref. 29.).

  19. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  20. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  1. Financial Evaluation of Different Vaccination Strategies for Controlling the Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Epidemic in the Netherlands in 2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velthuis, A.G.J.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Koeijer, de A.; Elbers, A.R.W.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure

  2. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  3. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  4. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  5. Phylogenetic analysis of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) NSs protein demonstrates the isolated emergence of resistance-breaking strains in pepper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almási, Asztéria; Csilléry, Gábor; Csömör, Zsófia; Nemes, Katalin; Palkovics, László; Salánki, Katalin; Tóbiás, István

    2015-02-01

    Resurgence of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) worldwide as well as in Hungary causing heavy economic losses directed the attention to the factors contributing to the outbreak of this serious epidemics. The introgression of Tsw resistance gene into various pepper cultivars seemed to solve TSWV control, but widely used resistant pepper cultivars bearing the same, unique resistance locus evoked the rapid emergence of resistance-breaking (RB) TSWV strains. In Hungary, the sporadic appearance of RB strains in pepper-producing region was first observed in 2010-2011, but in 2012 it was detected frequently. Previously, the non-structural protein (NSs) encoded by small RNA (S RNA) of TSWV was verified as the avirulence factor for Tsw resistance, therefore we analyzed the S RNA of the Hungarian RB and wild type (WT) isolates and compared to previously analyzed TSWV strains with RB properties from different geographical origins. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the different RB strains had the closest relationship with the local WT isolates and there is no conserved mutation present in all the NSs genes of RB isolates from different geographical origins. According to these results, we concluded that the RB isolates evolved separately in geographic point of view, and also according to the RB mechanism.

  6. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  7. Seroprevalence of human enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 in Guangdong, China, in pre- and post-2010 HFMD epidemic period.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human Enterovirus 71 and Coxsackie A16 have caused many outbreaks in the last decade in mainland China, resulting in thousands of fatal cases. Seroepidemiology which provides important information to document population immunity is rare in China. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A cross sectional study of Enterovirus 71 (EV71 and Coxsackie A16 (CA16 seroprevalence was carried out in Guangdong, China, pre- and post- the 2010 hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD epidemic period. The levels of EV71 and CA16 specific antibodies were evaluated by a microneutralization test and the geometric mean titer (GMT was calculated and compared. Our results indicated frequent infection by EV71 and CA16 in Guangdong before the 2010 epidemic. Only EV71 neutralizing antibody but not CA16 seroprevalence was significantly increased after the 2010 HFMD epidemic. Children less than 3 years old especially those aged 2 years showed the lowest positive rates for EV71 and CA16 NA before epidemic and the most significantly increased EV71 seroprevalence after epidemic. CA16 GMT values declined after the 2010 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate EV71 was the major pathogen of HFMD in Guangdong during the 2010 epidemic. The infection occurs largely in children less than 3 years, who should have first priority to receive an EV71 vaccine.

  8. [Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

    2012-11-01

    Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

  9. Immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and safety of a P1.7b,4 strain-specific serogroup B meningococcal vaccine given to preteens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosking, Jamie; Rasanathan, Kumanan; Mow, Florina Chan; Jackson, Catherine; Martin, Diana; O'Hallahan, Jane; Oster, Philipp; Ypma, Ellen; Reid, Stewart; Aaberge, Ingeborg; Crengle, Sue; Stewart, Joanna; Lennon, Diana

    2007-11-01

    New Zealand (NZ) has experienced a Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B epidemic since 1991. MeNZB, a strain-specific outer membrane vesicle vaccine made using an NZ epidemic strain isolate, NZ98/254 (B:4:P1.7b,4), from two manufacturing sites, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and Chiron Vaccines (CV; now Novartis), was evaluated for safety, immunogenicity, and reactogenicity in this observer-blind trial with 8- to 12-year-old children. In year 1, cohort A (n = 302) was randomized 4:1 for receipt of NIPH-MeNZB or MenBvac (Norwegian parent vaccine strain 44/76; B:15:P1.7,16). In year 2, cohort B (n = 313) was randomized 4:1 for receipt of CV-MeNZB or NIPH-MeNZB. Participants all received three vaccinations 6 weeks apart. Local and systemic reactions were monitored for 7 days. Seroresponse was defined as a fourfold or greater rise in the serum bactericidal antibody titer from the baseline titer as measured by a serum bactericidal assay. Those with baseline titers of /=1:8 to serorespond. Intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses are presented. In cohort A, 74% (ITT) and 73% (PP) of NIPH-MeNZB recipients demonstrated seroresponses against NZ98/254 after three doses, versus 32% (ITT and PP) of MenBvac recipients. In cohort B, seroresponses against NZ98/254 after three doses occurred in 79% (ITT and PP) of CV-MeNZB versus 75% (ITT) and 76% (PP) of NIPH-MeNZB recipients. Vaccines were tolerable, with no vaccine-related serious adverse events. In conclusion, the NZ strain meningococcal B vaccine (MeNZB) from either manufacturing site was immunogenic against New Zealand epidemic vaccine strain meningococci with no safety concerns when given in three doses to these 8- to 12-year-old children.

  10. Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Bezemer

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The HIV-1 subtype B epidemic amongst men who have sex with men (MSM is resurgent in many countries despite the widespread use of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (cART. In this combined mathematical and phylogenetic study of observational data, we aimed to find out the extent to which the resurgent epidemic is the result of newly introduced strains or of growth of already circulating strains.As of November 2011, the ATHENA observational HIV cohort of all patients in care in the Netherlands since 1996 included HIV-1 subtype B polymerase sequences from 5,852 patients. Patients who were diagnosed between 1981 and 1995 were included in the cohort if they were still alive in 1996. The ten most similar sequences to each ATHENA sequence were selected from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, and a phylogenetic tree was created of a total of 8,320 sequences. Large transmission clusters that included ≥10 ATHENA sequences were selected, with a local support value ≥ 0.9 and median pairwise patristic distance below the fifth percentile of distances in the whole tree. Time-varying reproduction numbers of the large MSM-majority clusters were estimated through mathematical modeling. We identified 106 large transmission clusters, including 3,061 (52% ATHENA and 652 Los Alamos sequences. Half of the HIV sequences from MSM registered in the cohort in the Netherlands (2,128 of 4,288 were included in 91 large MSM-majority clusters. Strikingly, at least 54 (59% of these 91 MSM-majority clusters were already circulating before 1996, when cART was introduced, and have persisted to the present. Overall, 1,226 (35% of the 3,460 diagnoses among MSM since 1996 were found in these 54 long-standing clusters. The reproduction numbers of all large MSM-majority clusters were around the epidemic threshold value of one over the whole study period. A tendency towards higher numbers was visible in recent years, especially in the more recently introduced clusters

  11. Complete genetic characterization of a Brazilian dengue virus type 3 strain isolated from a fatal outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marize Pereira Miagostovich

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available We have determined the complete nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences of Brazilian dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3 from a dengue case with fatal outcome, which occurred during an epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2002. This constitutes the first complete genetic characterization of a Brazilian DENV-3 strain since its introduction into the country in 2001. DENV-3 was responsible for the most severe dengue epidemic in the state, based on the highest number of reported cases and on the severity of clinical manifestations and deaths reported.

  12. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  13. The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Lourenço

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.

  14. Research Spotlight: Model suggests path to ending the ongoing Haitian cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-05-01

    Since early November 2010 a deadly cholera epidemic has been spreading across the Caribbean nation of Haiti, killing thousands of people and infecting hundreds of thousands. While infection rates are being actively monitored, health organizations have been left without a clear understanding of exactly how the disease has spread across Haiti. Cholera can spread through exposure to contaminated water, and the disease travels over long distances if an infected individual moves around the country. Using representations of these two predominant dispersion mechanisms, along with information on the size of the susceptible population, the number of infected individuals, and the aquatic concentration of the cholera-causing bacteria for more than 500 communities, Bertuzzo et al. designed a model that was able to accurately reproduce the progression of the Haitian cholera epidemic. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL046823, 2011)

  15. Inter-laboratory study to characterize the detection of serum antibodies against porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandbygaard, Bertel; Lavazza, Antonio; Lelli, Davide

    2016-01-01

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) has caused extensive economic losses to pig producers in many countries. It was recently introduced, for the first time, into North America and outbreaks have occurred again in multiple countries within Europe as well. To assess the properties of various dia...

  16. [Epidemic of Staphylococcus aureus nosocomial infections resistant to methicillin in a maternity ward].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Coq, M; Simon, I; Sire, C; Tissot-Guerraz, F; Fournier, L; Aho, S; Noblot, G; Reverdy, M E; Françoise, M

    2001-02-01

    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nosocomial infections frequently occur in the hospital environment, but their incidence is less often observed in neonates. In the present investigation, seventeen cases were recorded over a nine-week period (two cases per week). Pulsed field gradient gel electrophoresis confirmed the clonal character of the strain. The hypothesis of manually-transmitted infection due to contamination from multiple sources was reinforced by the fact the epidemic persisted in spite of the elimination of the main human infectious source and an absence of risk factors determined by the case-control study. The role of environmental factors in the persistence of this outbreak of MRSA infection has been considered.

  17. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  18. Taxing Soda: Strategies for Dealing with the Obesity and Diabetes Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maa, John

    2016-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the United States has been experiencing a twin epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Recently, advocacy efforts to tax sugary drinks, place warning labels on soda, improve nutritional labeling, and reduce sugar overconsumption have swept across the nation to address public health concerns from sugary drinks that strain our nation's health-care resources. In this article, the historical and scientific framework of this public health policy and valuable lessons learned from implementation efforts thus far will be examined to shape the next steps forward for the movement. Additional goals of this article are to share a surgeon's perspective about trends in bariatric surgery and the link between obesity and type 2 diabetes as a result of peripheral insulin resistance.

  19. EVALUATION AND PREDICTIVE METHODS OF EPIDEMICAL SITUATION IN THE AREA OF ACUTE ENTERIC INFECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malysh N.G.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the fact, that nowadays acute intestinal infections (AII sick rate is decreasing, the aggravation of the epidemical situation is always there. Increased attention to AII caused by unpredictable epidemical rises of the AII diseases, which cannot be prevented without assessing the epidemical situation of these infections and forecasting of the levels of sick rate. However, developed mathematical methods of forecasting in most cases do not take into account the risk factors, also they are time-consuming and it is difficult to calculate them; and developed special computer programs, which predict infectious sick rates, are often in the lack in the institutions of sanitary-epidemiological service. An urgent problem for today is establishing of the most influential social and environmental factors, which can make a contribution to the spread of AII. The aim of this work was to improve the method of assessment and prediction of epidemic situation of AII by identifying the influence of climatic and demographic factors. Materials and methods. In order to determine the influence of meteorological and demographic factors on the epidemic process of acute intestinal infections the official reports of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Ukraine in Sumy region, the Department of Statistics, Sumy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring have been studied. Results and discussion. The work on the evaluation of the epidemiological situation of the AII begins from collecting data, according to the AII sick rate. The main source of this information is the logbook of infectious diseases, which recorded all sick people that were found in the area. It is necessary to gather the initial information, calculate the sick rate and monthly distribution of AII cases on investigated area and evaluate the tendency. At the same time with accounting of AII cases on investigated territory, takes place a monitoring of air

  20. A study on plastic strain accumulation caused by traveling of temperature distribution synchronizing with temperature rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okajima, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    The prevention of excessive deformation by thermal ratcheting is important in the design of high-temperature components of fast breeder reactors (FBR). This includes evaluation methods for a new type of thermal ratcheting caused by an axial traveling of temperature distribution, which corresponds to moving-up of liquid sodium surface in startup phase. Long range traveling of the axial temperature distribution brings flat plastic deformation profile in wide range. Therefore, at the center of this range, residual stress that brings shakedown behavior does not accumulate. As a result, repeating of this temperature traveling brings continuous accumulation of the plastic strain, even if there is no primary stress. In contrast, in the case with short range traveling, residual stress is caused by constraint against elastic part, and finally it results in shakedown. Because of this mechanism, we supposed that limit for the shakedown behavior depends on distance from the elastic part (i.e. half length of region with plastic deformation). In this paper, we examined characteristics of the accumulation of the plastic strain caused by realistic heat transients, namely, traveling of temperature distribution synchronizing with temperature rise. This examination was based on finite element analyses using elastic-perfectly plastic material. As a result, we confirmed that the shakedown limit depends not on the traveling range of the temperature distribution but the plastic deformation range, which was predicted by the elastic analysis. In the actual application, we can control the plastic deformation range by changing rate of the moving-up of liquid sodium surface. (author)

  1. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  2. Neither hippurate-negative Brachyspira pilosicoli nor Brachyspira pilosicoli type strain caused diarrhoea in early-weaned pigs by experimental infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fossi, M.; Ahlsten, K.; Pohjanvirta, T.

    2005-01-01

    Fossi M, Ahlsten K, Pohjanvirta T, Anttila M, Kokkonen T, Jensen TK, Boye M, Sukura A, Pelkola K, Pelkonen S: Neither hippurate-negative Brachyspira pilosicoli nor Brachyspira pilosicoli type strain caused diarrhoea in early-weaned pigs by experimental infection. Acta vet. scand. 2005, 46, 257...

  3. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus through p53-dependent pathway causes cell cycle arrest in the G0/G1 phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Pei; Wu, Haoyang; Huang, Jiali; Xu, Ying; Yang, Feng; Zhang, Qi; Xu, Xingang

    2018-05-22

    Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), an enteropathogenic Alphacoronavirus, has caused enormous economic losses in the swine industry. p53 protein exists in a wide variety of animal cells, which is involved in cell cycle regulation, apoptosis, cell differentiation and other biological functions. In this study, we investigated the effects of PEDV infection on the cell cycle of Vero cells and p53 activation. The results demonstrated that PEDV infection induces cell cycle arrest at G0/G1 phase in Vero cells, while UV-inactivated PEDV does not cause cell cycle arrest. PEDV infection up-regulates the levels of p21, cdc2, cdk2, cdk4, Cyclin A protein and down-regulates Cyclin E protein. Further research results showed that inhibition of p53 signaling pathway can reverse the cell cycle arrest in G0/G1 phase induced by PEDV infection and cancel out the up-regulation of p21 and corresponding Cyclin/cdk mentioned above. In addition, PEDV infection of the cells synchronized in various stages of cell cycle showed that viral subgenomic RNA and virus titer were higher in the cells released from G0/G1 phase synchronized cells than that in the cells released from the G1/S phase and G2/M phase synchronized or asynchronous cells after 18 h p.i.. This is the first report to demonstrate that the p53-dependent pathway plays an important role in PEDV induced cell cycle arrest and beneficially contributes to viral infection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Unrecognized Ingestion of Toxoplasma gondii Oocysts Leads to Congenital Toxoplasmosis and Causes Epidemics in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Kenneth; Hill, Dolores; Mui, Ernest; Wroblewski, Kristen; Karrison, Theodore; Dubey, J. P.; Sautter, Mari; Noble, A. Gwendolyn; Withers, Shawn; Swisher, Charles; Heydemann, Peter; Hosten, Tiffany; Babiarz, Jane; Lee, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    (See the Editorial Commentary by Linn, on pages 1090–1.) Background. Congenital toxoplasmosis presents as severe, life-altering disease in North America. If mothers of infants with congenital toxoplasmosis could be identified by risks, it would provide strong support for educating pregnant women about risks, to eliminate this disease. Conversely, if not all risks are identifiable, undetectable risks are suggested. A new test detecting antibodies to sporozoites demonstrated that oocysts were the predominant source of Toxoplasma gondii infection in 4 North American epidemics and in mothers of children in the National Collaborative Chicago-based Congenital Toxoplasmosis Study (NCCCTS). This novel test offered the opportunity to determine whether risk factors or demographic characteristics could identify mothers infected with oocysts. Methods. Acutely infected mothers and their congenitally infected infants were evaluated, including in-person interviews concerning risks and evaluation of perinatal maternal serum samples. Results. Fifty-nine (78%) of 76 mothers of congenitally infected infants in NCCCTS had primary infection with oocysts. Only 49% of these mothers identified significant risk factors for sporozoite acquisition. Socioeconomic status, hometown size, maternal clinical presentations, and ethnicity were not reliable predictors. Conclusions. Undetected contamination of food and water by oocysts frequently causes human infections in North America. Risks are often unrecognized by those infected. Demographic characteristics did not identify oocyst infections. Thus, although education programs describing hygienic measures may be beneficial, they will not suffice to prevent the suffering and economic consequences associated with congenital toxoplasmosis. Only a vaccine or implementation of systematic serologic testing of pregnant women and newborns, followed by treatment, will prevent most congenital toxoplasmosis in North America. PMID:22021924

  5. Capacidad de respuesta a emergencias epidémicas: recomendaciones para la autoevaluación nacional Response capacity for epidemic emergencies: recommendations for country self-evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Gala

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Communicable diseases that have appeared or reappeared in recent years have demonstrated their great potential for spreading and their capacity to overwhelm a country's resources, causing major emergencies. The recent SARS epidemic showed that only health systems that have been strengthened and that have the response capacity for events of this kind will be able to handle future contingencies. Governments have recognized the need to support initiatives to strengthen their countries' capacities in surveillance, prevention, and the control of emergencies caused by epidemics. This piece identifies essential components that will make it possible to guide the efforts of governments, with the support of the Pan American Health Organization and other international organizations, toward achieving a common goal: establishing for countries warning and epidemic-emergency response systems that are appropriate and effective.

  6. Viral epidemics in a cell culture: novel high resolution data and their interpretation by a percolation theory based model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balázs Gönci

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent large scale observations have resulted in major discoveries concerning the overall features of the spreading process in systems with highly mobile susceptible units, but virtually no data are available about observations of infection spreading for a very large number of immobile units. Here we present the first detailed quantitative documentation of percolation-type viral epidemics in a highly reproducible in vitro system consisting of tens of thousands of virtually motionless cells. We use a confluent astroglial monolayer in a Petri dish and induce productive infection in a limited number of cells with a genetically modified herpesvirus strain. This approach allows extreme high resolution tracking of the spatio-temporal development of the epidemic. We show that a simple model is capable of reproducing the basic features of our observations, i.e., the observed behaviour is likely to be applicable to many different kinds of systems. Statistical physics inspired approaches to our data, such as fractal dimension of the infected clusters as well as their size distribution, seem to fit into a percolation theory based interpretation. We suggest that our observations may be used to model epidemics in more complex systems, which are difficult to study in isolation.

  7. A mouse model of paralytic myelitis caused by enterovirus D68.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison M Hixon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In 2014, the United States experienced an epidemic of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM cases in children coincident with a nationwide outbreak of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68 respiratory disease. Up to half of the 2014 AFM patients had EV-D68 RNA detected by RT-PCR in their respiratory secretions, although EV-D68 was only detected in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF from one 2014 AFM patient. Given previously described molecular and epidemiologic associations between EV-D68 and AFM, we sought to develop an animal model by screening seven EV-D68 strains for the ability to induce neurological disease in neonatal mice. We found that four EV-D68 strains from the 2014 outbreak (out of five tested produced a paralytic disease in mice resembling human AFM. The remaining 2014 strain, as well as 1962 prototype EV-D68 strains Fermon and Rhyne, did not produce, or rarely produced, paralysis in mice. In-depth examination of the paralysis caused by a representative 2014 strain, MO/14-18947, revealed infectious virus, virion particles, and viral genome in the spinal cords of paralyzed mice. Paralysis was elicited in mice following intramuscular, intracerebral, intraperitoneal, and intranasal infection, in descending frequency, and was associated with infection and loss of motor neurons in the anterior horns of spinal cord segments corresponding to paralyzed limbs. Virus isolated from spinal cords of infected mice transmitted disease when injected into naïve mice, fulfilling Koch's postulates in this model. Finally, we found that EV-D68 immune sera, but not normal mouse sera, protected mice from development of paralysis and death when administered prior to viral challenge. These studies establish an experimental model to study EV-D68-induced myelitis and to better understand disease pathogenesis and develop potential therapies.

  8. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  9. Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

    2016-04-01

    There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

  10. Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

    2016-04-01

    There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

  11. Dutch Q fever epidemic in a ‘One Health’ context: outbreaks, seroprevalence and occupational risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schimmer, Barbara

    2018-01-01

    Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii (C. burnetii). Small ruminants, in particular sheep and goats, have been associated with community Q fever outbreaks in other countries. Just prior to the Dutch Q fever epidemic, a nationwide survey indicated that only 2.4% of

  12. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2017-10-01

    The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

  13. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  14. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  15. Evaluation of indigenous bacterial strains for biocontrol of the frogeye leaf spot of soya bean caused by Cercospora sojina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonetti, E; Carmona, M A; Scandiani, M M; García, A F; Luque, A G; Correa, O S; Balestrasse, K B

    2012-08-01

    Assessment of biological control of Cercospora sojina, causal agent of frogeye leaf spot (FLS) of soya bean, using three indigenous bacterial strains, BNM297 (Pseudomonas fluorescens), BNM340 and BNM122 (Bacillus amyloliquefaciens). From cultures of each bacterial strain, cell suspensions and cell-free supernatants were obtained and assayed to determine their antifungal activity against C. sojina. Both mycelial growth and spore germination in vitro were more strongly inhibited by bacterial cell suspensions than by cell-free supernatants. The Bacillus strains BNM122 and BNM340 inhibited the fungal growth to a similar degree (I ≈ 52-53%), while cells from P. fluorescens BNM297 caused a lesser reduction (I ≈ 32-34%) in the fungus colony diameter. The foliar application of the two Bacillus strains on soya bean seedlings, under greenhouse conditions, significantly reduced the disease severity with respect to control soya bean seedlings and those sprayed with BNM297. This last bacterial strain was not effective in controlling FLS in vivo. Our data demonstrate that the application of antagonistic bacteria may be a promising and environmentally friendly alternative to control the FLS of soya bean.   To our knowledge, this is the first report of biological control of C. sojina by using native Bacillus strains. © 2012 The Authors. Letters in Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  16. Recent invasion of world-wide wheat growing areas by two aggressive strains of Puccinia striiformis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Stephanie; Ali, Sajid; Justesen, Annemarie Fejer

    2012-01-01

    The ever more frequent and severe large-scale epidemics of wheat yellow/stripe rust disease (caused by Puccinia striiformis) pose a severe threat to the world’s wheat production (Hovmøller et al. 2010). The onset of a new series of world-wide wheat yellow rust epidemics in 2000 has been linked...

  17. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  18. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  19. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  20. Clostridium difficile outbreak caused by NAP1/BI/027 strain and non-027 strains in a Mexican hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rayo Morfin-Otero

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: C. difficile NAP1/BI/027 strain and non-027 strains are established pathogens in our hospital. Accordingly, surveillance of C. difficile infections is now part of our nosocomial prevention program.

  1. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  2. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  3. Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

    2015-11-01

    Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

  4. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  5. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  6. Magnetic resonance and diffusion tensor imaging analyses indicate heterogeneous strains along human medial gastrocnemius fascicles caused by submaximal plantar-flexion activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakuzu, Agah; Pamuk, Uluç; Ozturk, Cengizhan; Acar, Burak; Yucesoy, Can A

    2017-05-24

    Sarcomere length changes are central to force production and excursion of skeletal muscle. Previous modeling indicates non-uniformity of that if mechanical interaction of muscle with its surrounding muscular and connective tissues is taken into account. Hence, quantifying length changes along the fascicles of activated human muscle in vivo is crucial, but this is lacking due to technical complexities. Combining magnetic resonance imaging deformation analyses and diffusion tensor imaging tractography, the aim was to test the hypothesis that submaximal plantar flexion activity at 15% MVC causes heterogeneous length changes along the fascicles of human medial gastrocnemius (GM) muscle. A general fascicle strain distribution pattern shown for all subjects indicates that proximal track segments are shortened, whereas distal ones are lengthened (e.g., by 13% and 29%, respectively). Mean fiber direction strains of different tracts also shows heterogeneity (for up to 57.5% of the fascicles). Inter-subject variability of amplitude and distribution of fascicle strains is notable. These findings confirm the hypothesis and are solid indicators for the functionally dependent mechanics of human muscle, in vivo. Heterogeneity of fascicle strains can be explained by epimuscular myofascial force transmission. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study, which quantified local deformations along human skeletal muscle fascicles caused by sustained submaximal activation. The present approach and indicated fascicle strain heterogeneity has numerous implications for muscle function in health and disease to estimate the muscle's contribution to the joint moment and excursion and to evaluate mechanisms of muscle injury and several treatment techniques. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  8. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  9. The need for data science in epidemic modelling. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danon, Leon; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen

    2016-09-01

    In their review, Chowell et al. consider the ability of mathematical models to predict early epidemic growth [1]. In particular, they question the central prediction of classical differential equation models that the number of cases grows exponentially during the early stages of an epidemic. Using examples including HIV and Ebola, they argue that classical models fail to capture key qualitative features of early growth and describe a selection of models that do capture non-exponential epidemic growth. An implication of this failure is that predictions may be inaccurate and unusable, highlighting the need for care when embarking upon modelling using classical methodology. There remains a lack of understanding of the mechanisms driving many observed epidemic patterns; we argue that data science should form a fundamental component of epidemic modelling, providing a rigorous methodology for data-driven approaches, rather than trying to enforce established frameworks. The need for refinement of classical models provides a strong argument for the use of data science, to identify qualitative characteristics and pinpoint the mechanisms responsible for the observed epidemic patterns.

  10. Pyriproxyfen and the microcephaly epidemic in Brazil - an ecological approach to explore the hypothesis of their association

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria de Fatima P Militão de Albuquerque

    Full Text Available The microcephaly epidemic in Brazil generated intense debate regarding its causality, and one hypothesised cause of this epidemic, now recognised as congenital Zika virus syndrome, was the treatment of drinking water tanks with pyriproxyfen to control Aedes aegypti larvae. We present the results of a geographical analysis of the association between the prevalence of microcephaly confirmed by Fenton growth charts and the type of larvicide used in the municipalities that were home to the mothers of the affected newborns in the metropolitan region of Recife in Pernambuco, the state in Brazil where the epidemic was first detected. The overall prevalence of microcephaly was 82 per 10,000 live births in the three municipalities that used the larvicide Bti (Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis instead of pyriproxyfen, and 69 per 10,000 live births in the eleven municipalities that used pyriproxyfen. The difference was not statistically significant. Our results show that the prevalence of microcephaly was not higher in the areas in which pyriproxyfen was used. In this ecological approach, there was no evidence of a correlation between the use of pyriproxyfen in the municipalities and the microcephaly epidemic.

  11. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  12. Epidemic Cholera and American Reform Movements in the 19th Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seohyung KIM

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The 19th century was the age of great reform in American history. After constructing of the canal and railroads, the industrialization began and American society changed so rapidly. In this period, there were so many social crisis and American people tried to solve these problems within the several reform movements. These reform movements were the driving forces to control cholera during the 19th century. Cholera was the endemic disease in Bengal, India, but after the 19th century it had spread globally by the development of trade networks. The 1832 cholera in the United States was the first epidemic cholera in American history. The mortality of cholera was so high, but it was very hard to find out the cause of this fatal infectious disease. So, different social discourses happened to control epidemic cholera in the 19th century, these can be understood within the similar context of American reform movements during this period. Board of Health in New York States made a new public health act to control cholera in 1832, it was ineffective. Some people insisted that the cause of this infectious disease was the corruption of the United States. They emphasized unjust and immoral system in American society. Moral reform expanded to Nativism, because lots of Irish immigrants were the victims of cholera. So, epidemic cholera was the opportunity to spread the desire for moral reform. To control cholera in 1849, the sanitary reform in Britain had affected. The fact that it was so important to improve and maintain the water quality for the control and prevention of disease spread, the sanitary reform happened. There were two different sphere of the sanitary reform. The former was the private reform to improve sewer or privy, the latter was the public reform to build sewage facilities. The 1849 cholera had an important meaning, because the social discourse, which had emphasized the sanitation of people or home expanded to the public sphere. When cholera

  13. [Epidemic Cholera and American Reform Movements in the 19th Century].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seohyung

    2015-12-01

    The 19th century was the age of great reform in American history. After constructing of the canal and railroads, the industrialization began and American society changed so rapidly. In this period, there were so many social crisis and American people tried to solve these problems within the several reform movements. These reform movements were the driving forces to control cholera during the 19th century. Cholera was the endemic disease in Bengal, India, but after the 19th century it had spread globally by the development of trade networks. The 1832 cholera in the United States was the first epidemic cholera in American history. The mortality of cholera was so high, but it was very hard to find out the cause of this fatal infectious disease. So, different social discourses happened to control epidemic cholera in the 19th century, these can be understood within the similar context of American reform movements during this period. Board of Health in New York States made a new public health act to control cholera in 1832, it was ineffective. Some people insisted that the cause of this infectious disease was the corruption of the United States. They emphasized unjust and immoral system in American society. Moral reform expanded to Nativism, because lots of Irish immigrants were the victims of cholera. So, epidemic cholera was the opportunity to spread the desire for moral reform. To control cholera in 1849, the sanitary reform in Britain had affected. The fact that it was so important to improve and maintain the water quality for the control and prevention of disease spread, the sanitary reform happened. There were two different sphere of the sanitary reform. The former was the private reform to improve sewer or privy, the latter was the public reform to build sewage facilities. The 1849 cholera had an important meaning, because the social discourse, which had emphasized the sanitation of people or home expanded to the public sphere. When cholera broke out in 1866 again

  14. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  15. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  16. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  17. [Chikungunya, La Réunion and Mayotte, 2005-2006: an epidemic without a story?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flahault, Antoine; Aumont, Gilles; Boisson, Véronique; de Lamballerile, Xavier; Favier, François; Fontenille, Didier; Gaüzère, Bernard-Alex; Journeaux, Sophie; Lotteau, Vincent; Paupy, Christophe; Sanquer, Marie-Anne; Setbon, Michel

    2007-01-01

    Many triggering factors for onset of emerging infectious diseases are now recognised, such as: globalisation, demographic increase, population movements, international trade, urbanisation, forest destruction, climate changes, loss in biodiversity, and extreme life conditions such as poverty, famine and war. Epidemic burden is often leading to disasters, in terms of human losses, as well as economic, political or social consequences. These outbreaks may jeopardize within a few weeks or months, industry, trade, or tourism. While dengue and its most severe forms (hemorrhagic and shock syndrome) is spreading all over the tropical world, another arbovirosis, chikungunya disease dramatically spread in Indian Ocean islands where 30 to 75% of population were infected in 2005 and 2006, and then extended its progression towards India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives islands with more than a million people infected with the East-African strain, replacing the former Asian strain which was known to prevail more than 30 years ago in India. Patients experience sequelae with disability, work loss, and rarely severe outcome recently identified in La Réunion and Mayotte (French overseas territories). No country, no part of the world may consider itself as protected against such events. However, consequences of emerging or re-emerging diseases are more and more unacceptable when they impact the poorest countries of the world. Viruses, bacteria, as well as wild animals, birds, or arthropods are not stopped by borders. It is time now to promote barriers against infectious diseases, including prevention, anticipation, disease surveillance and research. This is not only for humanitarian reasons, but also for contributing to a sustainable development with equity for worldwide population. This report presents comprehensive actions taken in 2006 for tracing the epidemic and mobilise research, as requested to the task force set up by the Prime Minister by March 20, 2006.

  18. Surveillance and vaccine effectiveness of an influenza epidemic predominated by vaccine-mismatched influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses in Taiwan, 2011-12 season.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Lo

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The 2011-12 trivalent influenza vaccine contains a strain of influenza B/Victoria-lineage viruses. Despite free provision of influenza vaccine among target populations, an epidemic predominated by influenza B/Yamagata-lineage viruses occurred during the 2011-12 season in Taiwan. We characterized this vaccine-mismatched epidemic and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE. METHODS: Influenza activity was monitored through sentinel viral surveillance, emergency department (ED and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI syndromic surveillance, and case-based surveillance of influenza with complications and deaths. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was evaluated through a case-control study on ILI patients enrolled into sentinel viral surveillance. Logistic regression was used to estimate VE adjusted for confounding factors. RESULTS: During July 2011-June 2012, influenza B accounted for 2,382 (72.5% of 3,285 influenza-positive respiratory specimens. Of 329 influenza B viral isolates with antigen characterization, 287 (87.2% were B/Yamagata-lineage viruses. Proportions of ED and outpatient visits being ILI-related increased from November 2011 to January 2012. Of 1,704 confirmed cases of influenza with complications, including 154 (9.0% deaths, influenza B accounted for 1,034 (60.7% of the confirmed cases and 103 (66.9% of the deaths. Reporting rates of confirmed influenza with complications and deaths were 73.5 and 6.6 per 1,000,000, respectively, highest among those aged ≥65 years, 50-64 years, 3-6 years, and 0-2 years. Adjusted VE was -31% (95% CI: -80, 4 against all influenza, 54% (95% CI: 3, 78 against influenza A, and -66% (95% CI: -132, -18 against influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: This influenza epidemic in Taiwan was predominated by B/Yamagata-lineage viruses unprotected by the 2011-12 trivalent vaccine. The morbidity and mortality of this vaccine-mismatched epidemic warrants careful consideration of introducing a

  19. Politics and pellagra: the epidemic of pellagra in the U.S. in the early twentieth century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollet, A. J.

    1992-01-01

    The epidemic of pellagra in the first half of this century at its peak produced at least 250,000 cases and caused 7,000 deaths a year for several decades in 15 southern states. It also filled hospital wards in other states, which had a similar incidence but refused to report their cases. Political influences interfered, not only with surveillance of the disease, but also in its study, recognition of its cause, and the institution of preventive measures when they became known. Politicians and the general public felt that it was more acceptable for pellagra to be infectious than for it to be a form of malnutrition, a result of poverty and thus an embarrassing social problem. Retrospectively, a change in the method of milling cornmeal, degermination, which began shortly after 1900, probably accounted for the appearance of the epidemic; such a process was suggested at the time, but the suggestion was ignored. PMID:1285449

  20. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  1. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  2. Phocine distemper revisited: Multidisciplinary analysis of the 2002 phocine distemper virus epidemic in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. Rijks (Jolianne)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractApril 1988, excess mortality of seals was observed on Anholt, a small Danish island in the Kattegat17. This announced the start of an epidemic that killed between 18 000 and 23 000 seals in European waters in 1988, mostly harbour seals (Phoca vitulina)17,28. The cause of this mortality

  3. Virus-Specific Differences in Rates of Disease during the 2010 Dengue Epidemic in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M.; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Santiago, Gilberto A.; Muñoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Santiago, Luis M.; Rivera, Aidsa; Rodríguez-Acosta, Rosa L.; Gonzalez Feliciano, Lorenzo; Margolis, Harold S.; Tomashek, Kay M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness (AFI) caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4) that are endemic in Puerto Rico. In January 2010, the number of suspected dengue cases reported to the passive dengue surveillance system exceeded the epidemic threshold and an epidemic was declared soon after. Methodology/Principal Findings To characterize the epidemic, surveillance and laboratory diagnostic data were compiled. A suspected case was a dengue-like AFI in a person reported by a health care provider with or without a specimen submitted for diagnostic testing. Laboratory-positive cases had: (i) DENV nucleic acid detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in an acute serum specimen; (ii) anti-DENV IgM antibody detected by ELISA in any serum specimen; or (iii) DENV antigen or nucleic acid detected in an autopsy-tissue specimen. In 2010, a total of 26,766 suspected dengue cases (7.2 per 1,000 residents) were identified, of which 46.6% were laboratory-positive. Of 7,426 RT-PCR-positive specimens, DENV-1 (69.0%) and DENV-4 (23.6%) were detected more frequently than DENV-2 (7.3%) and DENV-3 (Puerto Rico in the late 1960's. This epidemic re-emphasizes the need for more effective primary prevention interventions to reduce the morbidity and mortality of dengue. PMID:23593526

  4. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  5. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2014-01-01

    Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

  6. Canine distemper virus infection among wildlife before and after the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Junko; Nishio, Yohei; Kameo, Yuki; Terada, Yutaka; Kuwata, Ryusei; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kazuo; Maeda, Ken

    2015-11-01

    In 2007-2008, a canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic occurred among wild animals in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, and many mammals, including the wild boar and deer, were infected. In this study, CDV prevalence among wild animals was surveyed before and after the epidemic. At first, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with horseradish peroxidase-conjugated protein A/G was established to detect CDV antibodies in many mammalian species. This established ELISA was available for testing dogs, raccoons and raccoon dogs as well as virus-neutralization test. Next, a serological survey of wild mammalians was conducted, and it was indicated that many wild mammalians, particularly raccoons, were infected with CDV during the epidemic, but few were infected before and after the epidemic. On the other hand, many raccoon dogs died during the epidemic, but CDV remained prevalent in the remaining population, and a small epidemic occurred in raccoon dogs in 2012-2013. These results indicated that the epidemic of 2007-2008 may have been intensified by transmission to raccoons.

  7. Mycobacterium leprae genomes from a British medieval leprosy hospital: towards understanding an ancient epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendum, Tom A; Schuenemann, Verena J; Roffey, Simon; Taylor, G Michael; Wu, Huihai; Singh, Pushpendra; Tucker, Katie; Hinds, Jason; Cole, Stewart T; Kierzek, Andrzej M; Nieselt, Kay; Krause, Johannes; Stewart, Graham R

    2014-04-08

    Leprosy has afflicted humankind throughout history leaving evidence in both early texts and the archaeological record. In Britain, leprosy was widespread throughout the Middle Ages until its gradual and unexplained decline between the 14th and 16th centuries. The nature of this ancient endemic leprosy and its relationship to modern strains is only partly understood. Modern leprosy strains are currently divided into 5 phylogenetic groups, types 0 to 4, each with strong geographical links. Until recently, European strains, both ancient and modern, were thought to be exclusively type 3 strains. However, evidence for type 2 strains, a group normally associated with Central Asia and the Middle East, has recently been found in archaeological samples in Scandinavia and from two skeletons from the medieval leprosy hospital (or leprosarium) of St Mary Magdalen, near Winchester, England. Here we report the genotypic analysis and whole genome sequencing of two further ancient M. leprae genomes extracted from the remains of two individuals, Sk14 and Sk27, that were excavated from 10th-12th century burials at the leprosarium of St Mary Magdalen. DNA was extracted from the surfaces of bones showing osteological signs of leprosy. Known M. leprae polymorphisms were PCR amplified and Sanger sequenced, while draft genomes were generated by enriching for M. leprae DNA, and Illumina sequencing. SNP-typing and phylogenetic analysis of the draft genomes placed both of these ancient strains in the conserved type 2 group, with very few novel SNPs compared to other ancient or modern strains. The genomes of the two newly sequenced M. leprae strains group firmly with other type 2F strains. Moreover, the M. leprae strain most closely related to one of the strains, Sk14, in the worldwide phylogeny is a contemporaneous ancient St Magdalen skeleton, vividly illustrating the epidemic and clonal nature of leprosy at this site. The prevalence of these type 2 strains indicates that type 2F strains

  8. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  9. MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varol, Huseyin Atakan

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

  10. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  11. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  12. Outbreak of candidemia caused by fluconazole resistant Candida parapsilosis strains in an intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhati, Henrique Marconi Sampaio; Casulari, Luiz Augusto; Souza, Ana Carolina Remondi; Siqueira, Ricardo Andreotti; Damasceno, Camila Maria Gomes; Colombo, Arnaldo Lopes

    2016-08-20

    Candidemia is an increasing problem in tertiary care hospitals worldwide. Here, we report the first outbreak of candidemia caused by fluconazole-resistant C. parapsilosis (FRCP) strains in Brazil. This was a cross-sectional study of clinical and microbiological data of all candidemic episodes diagnosed from July 2011 to February 2012 in a 200-bed tertiary care hospital. Initial yeast identification and susceptibility testing were performed using the VITEK 2 - System. Isolates of Candida spp. resistant to fluconazole were sent to a reference laboratory (LEMI-UNIFESP) for further molecular identification and confirmation of resistance by CLSI microdilution test. A multivariate analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with FRCP infection. We identified a total of 40 critically ill patients with candidemia (15 women) with a median age of 70 years. The incidence of candidemia was 6 cases/1,000 patients admissions, including 28 cases (70 %) of infection with C. parapsilosis, 21 of which (75 %) were resistant to fluconazole. In only 19 % of FRCP candidemia cases had fluconazole been used previously. The results of our study indicated that diabetes is a risk factor for FRCP candidemia (p = 0.002). Overall, mortality from candidemia was 45 %, and mortality from episodes of FRCP infections was 42.9 %. The clustering of incident cases in the ICU and molecular typing of strains suggest horizontal transmission of FRCP. Accurate vigilant monitoring for new nosocomial strains of FRCP is required.

  13. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  14. Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

  15. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  16. [Investigation of OXA type beta-lactamases and PFGE patterns in Acinetobacter baumannii strains resistant to carbapenems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyik, Serafettin; Arslan, Uğur; Türk Dağı, Hatice; Seyhan, Tuba; Fındık, Duygu

    2014-10-01

    Acinetobacter baumannii is an important opportunistic and multidrug-resistant pathogen leading to nosocomial infections. Over the last 10 years, a significant and threatening increase in resistance to carbapenems, mainly due to the dissemination of class D beta-lactamases, has been reported in A.baumannii worldwide. The most common types of beta-lactamases causing carbapenem resistance in A.baumannii are the OXA-23, OXA-24, OXA-40, OXA-58 and OXA-143 type serine beta-lactamases. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of OXA type beta-lactamases in carbapenem-resistant A.baumannii strains and the clonal relationship between the strains. A total of 105 non-duplicate carbapenem-resistant A.baumannii strains isolated from various clinical samples (68 blood, 18 bronchoalveolar lavage, 13 drainage, 3 urine, 2 cerebrospinal fluid and 1 catheter samples) in the Microbiology Laboratories of Selcuk University, Meram (2009-2012) and Selcuklu (2007-2008) Medical School Hospitals, were included in the study. The isolates were identified by conventional methods and Phoenix 100 BD (BD Diagnostic, USA) and Vitek II (bioMerieux, France) automated systems. Carbapenem susceptibility test was performed by Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method according to the CLSI standards. bla(OXA 23-like), bla(OXA 24-like), bla(OXA 58-like) and bla(OXA 51-like) genes were amplified by multiplex PCR assay and clonal relatedness was investigated by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) using ApaI enzyme. The bla(OXA 51-like) gene was determined in all carbapenem-resistant A.baumannii isolates, while the bla(OXA 23-like) and bla(OXA 58-like) genes were detected in 46.6% and 53.3% of isolates, respectively. However bla(OXA 24-like) gene was not demonstrated in any isolates. bla(OXA 23-like) gene was determined in both Meram and Selcuklu Medical School hospitals, but bla(OXA 58-like) gene was detected only in Meram Medical School hospital. PFGE analysis of the isolates revealed 32 different

  17. First two cases of severe multifocal infections caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in Switzerland: characterization of an atypical non-K1/K2-serotype strain causing liver abscess and endocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babouee Flury, Baharak; Donà, Valentina; Buetti, Niccolò; Furrer, Hansjakob; Endimiani, Andrea

    2017-09-01

    We describe the first two multifocal invasive infections due to Klebsiella pneumoniae recently observed in Switzerland. Phenotypic (MIC assays and string test) and molecular analyses (PCR/Sequencing for bla, virulence factor genes and whole genome sequencing for one strain) were performed to characterize the causative K. pneumoniae isolates. Both K. pneumoniae isolates (Kp1 and Kp2) were pan-susceptible to antibiotics and produced narrow-spectrum SHV β-lactamases. However, only Kp1 was string test positive. Kp1 was of ST380 and caused liver abscess as well as pneumonia and orbital phlegmon in an Eritrean patient. It belonged to the hypervirulent capsular serotype K2 and harboured the classic virulence-associated rmpA and aerobactin genes, fulfilling both the clinical and microbiological definitions for an invasive K. pneumoniae syndrome. Kp2 was of ST1043 and caused both liver abscess and endocarditis in a Swiss patient. Moreover, it did not possess the classic virulence-associated genes. Whole genome sequencing identified less well-known virulence factors in Kp2 that might have contributed to its virulence. Among these there were genes important for intestinal colonization and/or invasion, such as genes involved in adhesion (e.g., fimABCD and mrkABCD), regulation of capsule polysaccharide biosynthesis (e.g., evgS-evgA), as well as iron uptake (iroN), energy conversion, and metabolism. This report confirms the continuous dissemination of hypervirulent K. pneumoniae strains among patients of non-Asian descent in Europe. Moreover, it highlights the genetic background of an atypical hypervirulent K. pneumoniae causing a severe invasive infection despite not possessing the classical virulence characteristics of hypermucoviscous strains. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Chemotherapy of Infection and Cancer. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Haemophilus ducreyi Cutaneous Ulcer Strains Are Nearly Identical to Class I Genital Ulcer Strains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharanesh Gangaiah

    Full Text Available Although cutaneous ulcers (CU in the tropics is frequently attributed to Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue, the causative agent of yaws, Haemophilus ducreyi has emerged as a major cause of CU in yaws-endemic regions of the South Pacific islands and Africa. H. ducreyi is generally susceptible to macrolides, but CU strains persist after mass drug administration of azithromycin for yaws or trachoma. H. ducreyi also causes genital ulcers (GU and was thought to be exclusively transmitted by microabrasions that occur during sex. In human volunteers, the GU strain 35000HP does not infect intact skin; wounds are required to initiate infection. These data led to several questions: Are CU strains a new variant of H. ducreyi or did they evolve from GU strains? Do CU strains contain additional genes that could allow them to infect intact skin? Are CU strains susceptible to azithromycin?To address these questions, we performed whole-genome sequencing and antibiotic susceptibility testing of 5 CU strains obtained from Samoa and Vanuatu and 9 archived class I and class II GU strains. Except for single nucleotide polymorphisms, the CU strains were genetically almost identical to the class I strain 35000HP and had no additional genetic content. Phylogenetic analysis showed that class I and class II strains formed two separate clusters and CU strains evolved from class I strains. Class I strains diverged from class II strains ~1.95 million years ago (mya and CU strains diverged from the class I strain 35000HP ~0.18 mya. CU and GU strains evolved under similar selection pressures. Like 35000HP, the CU strains were highly susceptible to antibiotics, including azithromycin.These data suggest that CU strains are derivatives of class I strains that were not recognized until recently. These findings require confirmation by analysis of CU strains from other regions.

  19. Microbial dynamics during shelf-life of industrial Ricotta cheese and identification of a Bacillus strain as a cause of a pink discolouration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sattin, E; Andreani, N A; Carraro, L; Fasolato, L; Balzan, S; Novelli, E; Squartini, A; Telatin, A; Simionati, B; Cardazzo, B

    2016-08-01

    Dairy products are perishable and have to be preserved from spoilage during the food chain to achieve the desired shelf-life. Ricotta is a typical Italian soft dairy food produced by heat coagulation of whey proteins and is considered to be a light and healthy product. The shelf-life of Ricotta could be extended, as required by the international food trade market; however, heat resistant microflora causes spoilage and poses issues regarding the safety of the product. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) applied to the Ricotta samples defined the composition of the microbial community in-depth during the shelf-life. The analysis demonstrated the predominance of spore-forming bacteria throughout the shelf-life, mostly belonging to Bacillus, Paenibacillus and Clostridium genera. A strain involved in spoilage and causing a pink discolouration of Ricotta was isolated and characterised as Bacillus mycoides/weihenstephanensis. This is the first report of a food discolouration caused by a toxigenic strain belonging to the Bacillus cereus group that resulted the predominant strain in the community of the defective ricotta. These results suggest that the processing of raw materials to eliminate spores and residual microflora could be essential for improving the quality and the safety of the product and to extend the shelf-life of industrial Ricotta. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  1. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  2. Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

    2004-10-22

    Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

  3. Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

    2017-05-26

    The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  4. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  5. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  6. 2014 Anthrax epidemic in Koubia prefecture, Guinea-Conakry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sow, M S; Boushab, M B; Balde, H; Camara, A; Sako, F B; Traoré, F A; Diallo, M O S; Diallo, M D; Keita, M; Sylla, A O; Tounkara, T M; Cissé, M

    2016-11-01

    Anthrax disease is an anthropozoonosis caused by a Gram-positive bacterium, Bacillus anthracis. Our objective was to describe the epidemiological, clinical and therapeutic features of the 2014 epidemic in Koubia prefecture. This retrospective study examined all of the anthrax cases reported in Fafaya, Koubia Prefecture. In March and April 2014, there were 39 cases of human anthrax reported, for an incidence of 1.135%. The mean age was 20.9 (± 18.3) with a sex ratio of 2.54 (28/11) in favor of men. Seventy-six percent (23/39) were single. More than one half were students (53.8%). The main clinical signs were fever in 71, 8% (n = 28 /), papules 59% (n = 23), vesicles of 59% (n = 23) Digestive and cutaneous signs represented 35.9 % and 64.1% respectively; 35% had ingested contaminated meat and 17.95% were in direct contact with a sick animal. We didn't find any correlation between the mode of infection and onset of signs. The fatality rate was 28.21%. The 2014 epidemic of anthrax disease in the Koubia prefecture was marked by a high incidence and lethality. Clinical manifestations were cutaneaous and digestive. These results may serve further interventions to fight against anthrax disease. They should mainly focus on an awareness of peasants, surveillance and vaccination of cattle. Other studies seem to be necessary.

  7. Epidemiological bridging by injection drug use drives an early HIV epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Volz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The risk of acquiring sexually transmitted infections (STIs depends on individual behavior and the network of risky partnerships in which an individual participates. STI epidemics often spread rapidly and primarily among individuals central to transmission networks; and thus they often defy the mass-action principle since incidence is not proportional to the infectious fraction of the population. Here, we estimate the contact network structure for an Atlanta, Georgia community with heterogeneous sexual and drug-related risk behaviors and build a detailed transmission model for HIV through this population. We show that accurate estimation of epidemic incidence requires careful measurement and inclusion of diverse factors including concurrency (having multiple partners, the duration of partnerships, serosorting (preference for partners with matching disease state, and heterogeneity in the number and kinds of partners. In the focal population, we find that injection drug users (IDUs do not directly cause many secondary infections; yet they bridge the heterosexual and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM populations and are thereby indirectly responsible for extensive transmission. Keywords: HIV, Networks, Serosorting, Concurrency

  8. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  9. Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qingyu; Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

    2016-01-01

    The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian.

  10. Beyond fast food and slow motion: Weighty contributors to the obesity epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Cizza, G.; Rother, K.I.

    2011-01-01

    Decreased physical activity and marketing-driven increased consumption of “junk” food, dubbed “The Big Two”, are generally regarded as the most important contributors to the obesity epidemic. However, the full picture contains many more pieces of the puzzle. We address several additional issues and review current clinical developments in obesity research. In spite of dramatic advancements in our understanding of the adipose organ and its endocrine and immune products, the ultimate causes of t...

  11. Improved understanding of factors driving methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus epidemic waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Som S; Otto, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) remains one of the most important causes of nosocomial infections worldwide. Since the global spread of MRSA in the 1960s, MRSA strains have evolved with increased pathogenic potential. Notably, some strains are now capable of causing persistent infections not only in hospitalized patients but also in healthy individuals in the community. Furthermore, MRSA is increasingly associated with infections among livestock-associated workers, primarily because of transmission from animals to humans. Moreover, many MRSA strains have gained resistance to most available antibiotics. In this review, we will present current knowledge on MRSA epidemiology and discuss new endeavors being undertaken to understand better the molecular and epidemiological underpinnings of MRSA outbreaks. PMID:23861600

  12. The anti-sigma factor TcdC modulates hypervirulence in an epidemic BI/NAP1/027 clinical isolate of Clostridium difficile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen P Carter

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Nosocomial infections are increasingly being recognised as a major patient safety issue. The modern hospital environment and associated health care practices have provided a niche for the rapid evolution of microbial pathogens that are well adapted to surviving and proliferating in this setting, after which they can infect susceptible patients. This is clearly the case for bacterial pathogens such as Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA and Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE species, both of which have acquired resistance to antimicrobial agents as well as enhanced survival and virulence properties that present serious therapeutic dilemmas for treating physicians. It has recently become apparent that the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium difficile also falls within this category. Since 2000, there has been a striking increase in C. difficile nosocomial infections worldwide, predominantly due to the emergence of epidemic or hypervirulent isolates that appear to possess extended antibiotic resistance and virulence properties. Various hypotheses have been proposed for the emergence of these strains, and for their persistence and increased virulence, but supportive experimental data are lacking. Here we describe a genetic approach using isogenic strains to identify a factor linked to the development of hypervirulence in C. difficile. This study provides evidence that a naturally occurring mutation in a negative regulator of toxin production, the anti-sigma factor TcdC, is an important factor in the development of hypervirulence in epidemic C. difficile isolates, presumably because the mutation leads to significantly increased toxin production, a contentious hypothesis until now. These results have important implications for C. difficile pathogenesis and virulence since they suggest that strains carrying a similar mutation have the inherent potential to develop a hypervirulent phenotype.

  13. Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabaan, Ali A

    2018-06-22

    Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with Vibrio cholerae, primarily the V. cholerae O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of V. cholerae O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

  14. Epidemic dynamics on a risk-based evolving social network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antwi, Shadrack; Shaw, Leah

    2013-03-01

    Social network models have been used to study how behavior affects the dynamics of an infection in a population. Motivated by HIV, we consider how a trade-off between benefits and risks of sexual connections determine network structure and disease prevalence. We define a stochastic network model with formation and breaking of links as changes in sexual contacts. Each node has an intrinsic benefit its neighbors derive from connecting to it. Nodes' infection status is not apparent to others, but nodes with more connections (higher degree) are assumed more likely to be infected. The probability to form and break links is determined by a payoff computed from the benefit and degree-dependent risk. The disease is represented by a SI (susceptible-infected) model. We study network and epidemic evolution via Monte Carlo simulation and analytically predict the behavior with a heterogeneous mean field approach. The dependence of network connectivity and infection threshold on parameters is determined, and steady state degree distribution and epidemic levels are obtained. We also study a situation where system-wide infection levels alter perception of risk and cause nodes to adjust their behavior. This is a case of an adaptive network, where node status feeds back to change network geometry.

  15. Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

    2013-10-21

    In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

  16. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  17. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  18. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  19. Pain Therapy Guided by Purpose and Perspective in Light of the Opioid Epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amie L. Severino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Prescription opioid misuse is an ongoing and escalating epidemic. Although these pharmacological agents are highly effective analgesics prescribed for different types of pain, opioids also induce euphoria, leading to increasing diversion and misuse. Opioid use and related mortalities have developed in spite of initial claims that OxyContin, one of the first opioids prescribed in the USA, was not addictive in the presence of pain. These claims allayed the fears of clinicians and contributed to an increase in the number of prescriptions, quantity of drugs manufactured, and the unforeseen diversion of these drugs for non-medical uses. Understanding the history of opioid drug development, the widespread marketing campaign for opioids, the immense financial incentive behind the treatment of pain, and vulnerable socioeconomic and physical demographics for opioid misuse give perspective on the current epidemic as an American-born problem that has expanded to global significance. In light of the current worldwide opioid epidemic, it is imperative that novel opioids are developed to treat pain without inducing the euphoria that fosters physical dependence and addiction. We describe insights from preclinical findings on the properties of opioid drugs that offer insights into improving abuse-deterrent formulations. One finding is that the ability of some agonists to activate one pathway over another, or agonist bias, can predict whether several novel opioid compounds bear promise in treating pain without causing reward among other off-target effects. In addition, we outline how the pharmacokinetic profile of each opioid contributes to their potential for misuse and discuss the emergence of mixed agonists as a promising pipeline of opioid-based analgesics. These insights from preclinical findings can be used to more effectively identify opioids that treat pain without causing physical dependence and subsequent opioid abuse.

  20. Pain Therapy Guided by Purpose and Perspective in Light of the Opioid Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severino, Amie L.; Shadfar, Arash; Hakimian, Joshua K.; Crane, Oliver; Singh, Ganeev; Heinzerling, Keith; Walwyn, Wendy M.

    2018-01-01

    Prescription opioid misuse is an ongoing and escalating epidemic. Although these pharmacological agents are highly effective analgesics prescribed for different types of pain, opioids also induce euphoria, leading to increasing diversion and misuse. Opioid use and related mortalities have developed in spite of initial claims that OxyContin, one of the first opioids prescribed in the USA, was not addictive in the presence of pain. These claims allayed the fears of clinicians and contributed to an increase in the number of prescriptions, quantity of drugs manufactured, and the unforeseen diversion of these drugs for non-medical uses. Understanding the history of opioid drug development, the widespread marketing campaign for opioids, the immense financial incentive behind the treatment of pain, and vulnerable socioeconomic and physical demographics for opioid misuse give perspective on the current epidemic as an American-born problem that has expanded to global significance. In light of the current worldwide opioid epidemic, it is imperative that novel opioids are developed to treat pain without inducing the euphoria that fosters physical dependence and addiction. We describe insights from preclinical findings on the properties of opioid drugs that offer insights into improving abuse-deterrent formulations. One finding is that the ability of some agonists to activate one pathway over another, or agonist bias, can predict whether several novel opioid compounds bear promise in treating pain without causing reward among other off-target effects. In addition, we outline how the pharmacokinetic profile of each opioid contributes to their potential for misuse and discuss the emergence of mixed agonists as a promising pipeline of opioid-based analgesics. These insights from preclinical findings can be used to more effectively identify opioids that treat pain without causing physical dependence and subsequent opioid abuse. PMID:29740351

  1. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  2. Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2009-01-01

    Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

  3. Association between genotype and drug resistance profiles of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains circulating in China in a national drug resistance survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, Yang; van den Hof, Susan; Wang, Shengfen; Pang, Yu; Zhao, Bing; Xia, Hui; Anthony, Richard; Ou, Xichao; Li, Qiang; Zheng, Yang; Song, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Yanlin; van Soolingen, Dick

    2017-01-01

    We describe the population structure of a representative collection of 3,133 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, collected within the framework of a national resistance survey from 2007 in China. Genotyping data indicate that the epidemic strains in China can be divided into seven major complexes,

  4. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  5. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  6. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-01-05

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

  7. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  8. Addiction to highly pleasurable food as a cause of the childhood obesity epidemic: a qualitative Internet study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretlow, Robert A

    2011-01-01

    An interactive, open-access website was launched as an overweight intervention for teens and preteens, and was generally unsuccessful. An understanding was needed of the reasons for weight loss failures versus successes in youth using the site. Bulletin board posts, chat room transcripts, and poll responses were prospectively gathered and qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed over a ten-year period. Many respondents, ages 8 to 21, exhibited DSM-IV substance dependence (addiction) criteria when describing their relationship with highly pleasurable foods. Further research is needed on possible addiction to highly pleasurable foods in youth. Incorporating substance dependence methods may improve the success rate in combating the childhood obesity epidemic.

  9. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  10. Dialysis enrollment patterns in Guatemala: evidence of the chronic kidney disease of non-traditional causes epidemic in Mesoamerica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laux, Timothy S; Barnoya, Joaquin; Guerrero, Douglas R; Rothstein, Marcos

    2015-04-14

    In western Nicaragua and El Salvador, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is highly prevalent and generally affects young, male, agricultural (usually sugar cane) workers without the established CKD risk factors. It is yet unknown if the prevalence of this CKD of Non-Traditional causes (CKDnT) extends to the northernmost Central American country, Guatemala. Therefore, we sought to compare dialysis enrollment rates by region, municipality, sex, daily temperature, and agricultural production in Guatemala and assess if there is a similar CKDnT distribution pattern as in Nicaragua and El Salvador. The National Center for Chronic Kidney Disease Treatment (Unidad Nacional de Atención al Enfermo Renal Crónico) is the largest provider of dialysis in Guatemala. We used population, Human Development Index, literacy, and agricultural databases to assess the geographic, economic, and educational correlations with the National Center for Chronic Kidney Disease Treatment's hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis enrollment database. Enrollment rates (per 100 000) inhabitants were compared by region and mapped for comparison to regional agricultural and daytime temperature data. The distribution of men and women enrolled in dialysis were compared by region using Fisher's exact tests. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were calculated. Dialysis enrollment is higher in the Southwest compared to the rest of the country where enrollees are more likely (p Guatemala. In Guatemala, CKDnT incidence may have a similar geographic distribution as Nicaragua and El Salvador (higher in the high temperature and sugar cane growing regions). Therefore, it is likely that the CKNnT epidemic extends throughout the Mesoamerican region.

  11. Functional genomic characterization of virulence factors from necrotizing fasciitis-causing strains of Aeromonas hydrophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grim, Christopher J; Kozlova, Elena V; Ponnusamy, Duraisamy; Fitts, Eric C; Sha, Jian; Kirtley, Michelle L; van Lier, Christina J; Tiner, Bethany L; Erova, Tatiana E; Joseph, Sandeep J; Read, Timothy D; Shak, Joshua R; Joseph, Sam W; Singletary, Ed; Felland, Tracy; Baze, Wallace B; Horneman, Amy J; Chopra, Ashok K

    2014-07-01

    The genomes of 10 Aeromonas isolates identified and designated Aeromonas hydrophila WI, Riv3, and NF1 to NF4; A. dhakensis SSU; A. jandaei Riv2; and A. caviae NM22 and NM33 were sequenced and annotated. Isolates NF1 to NF4 were from a patient with necrotizing fasciitis (NF). Two environmental isolates (Riv2 and -3) were from the river water from which the NF patient acquired the infection. While isolates NF2 to NF4 were clonal, NF1 was genetically distinct. Outside the conserved core genomes of these 10 isolates, several unique genomic features were identified. The most virulent strains possessed one of the following four virulence factors or a combination of them: cytotoxic enterotoxin, exotoxin A, and type 3 and 6 secretion system effectors AexU and Hcp. In a septicemic-mouse model, SSU, NF1, and Riv2 were the most virulent, while NF2 was moderately virulent. These data correlated with high motility and biofilm formation by the former three isolates. Conversely, in a mouse model of intramuscular infection, NF2 was much more virulent than NF1. Isolates NF2, SSU, and Riv2 disseminated in high numbers from the muscular tissue to the visceral organs of mice, while NF1 reached the liver and spleen in relatively lower numbers on the basis of colony counting and tracking of bioluminescent strains in real time by in vivo imaging. Histopathologically, degeneration of myofibers with significant infiltration of polymorphonuclear cells due to the highly virulent strains was noted. Functional genomic analysis provided data that allowed us to correlate the highly infectious nature of Aeromonas pathotypes belonging to several different species with virulence signatures and their potential ability to cause NF. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  12. Morphologic and Molecular Characterization of a Strain of Zika Virus Imported into Guangdong, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Li

    Full Text Available The recent outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV disease have caused worldwide concerns. Guangdong province is one of the commercial centers in China and communicates frequently with the epidemic areas. To date, 65.2% of the ZIKV infection cases in China were imported via port of entry in Guangdong. The continuous surveillance of imported cases is crucial for the prevention and control of potential ZIKV infection outbreak in China. In this study, a strain of ZIKV was isolated from the serum of a 6-year-old child returning from Venezuela. The morphology of the ZIKV was analyzed in vivo and in vitro by electron microscopy, and clusters of virus particles were found in the loose cytoplasmic membrane structures. The genomic sequence of the isolated ZIKV was determined, and the alignment and phylogenetic analysis identified one unique amino acid substitution occurring in the non-structural protein 4B (NS4B, and the isolated virus belonged to the Asian lineage.

  13. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  14. Spatial self-organization in a multi-strain host–pathogen system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Quan-Xing; Van de Koppel, Johan; Wang, Rong-Hua; Jin, Zhen; Alonso, David

    2010-01-01

    We develop stochastic spatial epidemic models with the competition of two pathogenic strains. The dynamics resulting from different approaches are examined using both non-spatial and spatially explicit models. Our results show that pair approximation, well-mixed ordinary differential equations (ODEs), Gillespie-algorithm-based simulations and spatially explicit models give similar qualitative results. In particular, the temporal evolution of the spatial model can be successfully approximated by pair equations. Simulation results obtained from the spatially explicit model show that, first, mutation plays a major role in multi-strain coexistence, second, mild virulence remarkably decreases the coexistence domain of the parameter space and, third, large-scale self-organized spatial patterns emerge for a wide range of transmission and virulence parameter values, where spatial self-organized clusters reveal a power law behavior within the coexistence domain

  15. Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

  16. The detection and sequencing of a broad-host-range conjugative IncP-1β plasmid in an epidemic strain of Mycobacterium abscessus subsp. bolletii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Cardoso Leão

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: An extended outbreak of mycobacterial surgical infections occurred in Brazil during 2004-2008. Most infections were caused by a single strain of Mycobacterium abscessus subsp. bolletii, which was characterized by a specific rpoB sequevar and two highly similar pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE patterns differentiated by the presence of a ∼50 kb band. The nature of this band was investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Genomic sequencing of the prototype outbreak isolate INCQS 00594 using the SOLiD platform demonstrated the presence of a 56,267-bp [corrected] circular plasmid, designated pMAB01. Identity matrices, genetic distances and phylogeny analyses indicated that pMAB01 belongs to the broad-host-range plasmid subgroup IncP-1β and is highly related to BRA100, pJP4, pAKD33 and pB10. The presence of pMAB01-derived sequences in 41 M. abscessus subsp. bolletii isolates was evaluated using PCR, PFGE and Southern blot hybridization. Sixteen of the 41 isolates showed the presence of the plasmid. The plasmid was visualized as a ∼50-kb band using PFGE and Southern blot hybridization in 12 isolates. The remaining 25 isolates did not exhibit any evidence of this plasmid. The plasmid was successfully transferred to Escherichia coli by conjugation and transformation. Lateral transfer of pMAB01 to the high efficient plasmid transformation strain Mycobacterium smegmatis mc(2155 could not be demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The occurrence of a broad-host-range IncP-1β plasmid in mycobacteria is reported for the first time. Thus, genetic exchange could result in the emergence of specific strains that might be better adapted to cause human disease.

  17. Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

  18. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  19. Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

  20. Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

  1. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  2. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  3. Culture supernatants from V. cholerae O1 El Tor strains isolated from different geographic areas induce cell vacuolation and cytotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jorge E; Enríquez-Rincón, Fernando; Giono-Cerezo, Silvia; Ribas-Aparicio, Rosa María; Figueroa-Arredondo, Paula

    2009-01-01

    To investigate whether the HlyA-induced vacuolating effect is produced by V. cholerae O1 ElTor strains isolated from different geographic origins, including Mexico. Supernatant-induced haemolysis, vacuolating activity and cytotoxicity in Vero cells were recorded. PCR, RFLP analysis and molecular cloning were performed. All ElTor strains analyzed induced cellular vacuolation. Ribotype 2 strains isolates from the U.S. gulf coast yielded the highest titer of vacuolating activity. Eight of nine strains were haemolytic, while all strains were PCR positive for the hlyA gene. We cloned the hlyA gene from two ElTor strains, a toxigenic (2514-88, ctxAB+) and a non-toxigenic Mexican strain (CM 91-3, ctxAB-). Supernatant from those recombinant E. coli strains induced haemolysis, cell vacuolation and cytotoxicity. RFLP-PCR analysis revealed similarities in the hlyA gene from all strains tested. The HlyA-induced vacuolating effect is a widespread phenotype of epidemic V. cholerae O1 ElTor strains.

  4. First report of two rapid-onset fatal infections caused by a newly emerging hypervirulent K. Pneumonia ST86 strain of serotype K2 in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yibo; Sun, Jingyong; Mi, Chenrong; Li, Wenhui; Zhao, Shengyuan; Wang, Qun; Shi, Dake; Liu, Luo; Ding, Bingyu; Chang, Yung-Fu; Guo, Hongxiong; Guo, XiaoKui; Li, Qingtian; Zhu, Yongzhang

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present the first report of one suspected dead case and two confirmed rapid-onset fatal infections caused by a newly emerging hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae ST86 strain of serotype K2. The three cases occurred in a surgery ward during 2013 in Shanghai, China. A combination of multilocus sequence typing, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, phenotypic and PCR tests for detecting virulence factors (VFs) was used to identify the isolates as K2 ST86 strains with common VFs, including Aerobactin and rmpA. Furthermore, the two K2 ST86 strains additionally harbored a distinct VF kfu (responsible for iron uptake system), which commonly existed in invasive K1 strains only. Thus, the unusual presence of both K1 and K2 VFs in the lethal ST86 strain might further enhance its hypervirulence and cause rapid onset of a life-threatening infection. Nevertheless, despite the administration of a combined antibiotic treatment, these three patients all died within 24 h of acute onset, thereby highlighting that the importance of early diagnosis to determine whether the ST86 strains harbor key K2 VF and unusual K1 kfu and whether patients should receive a timely and targeted antibiotic therapy to prevent ST86 induced fatal pneumonia. Finally, even though these patients are clinically improved, keeping on with oral antibiotic treatment for additional 2-3 weeks will be also vital for successfully preventing hvKP reinfection or relapse.

  5. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  6. Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Godwin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

  7. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  8. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  9. Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

  10. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

  11. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwang Zhang

    Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  12. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  13. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  14. Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

    2009-03-01

    The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

  15. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  16. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  17. Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

    2017-10-01

    Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Ecology of West Nile Fever across four European countries: Review of weather profiles, vector population dynamics and vector control response

    Science.gov (United States)

    West Nile virus (WNV) represents a serious burden to human and animal health because of its capacity to cause large unforeseen epidemics. Until 2004, only lineage 1 and 3 WNV strains had been found in Europe. Lineage 2 strains were initially isolated in 2004 (Hungary), again in 2008 (Austria), and f...

  19. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. Infection of inbred rat strains with Rift Valley fever virus: development of a congenic resistant strain and observations on age-dependence of resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G W; Rosebrock, J A; Johnson, A J; Jennings, G B; Peters, C J

    1991-05-01

    A congenic rat strain (WF.LEW) was derived from the susceptible Wistar-Furth (WF) (background strain) and the resistant LEW (donor strain) inbred strains and was used to evaluate the phenotypic expression of a dominant Mendelian gene that confers resistance to fatal hepatic disease caused by the ZH501 strain of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). Resistance to hepatic disease developed gradually with age, with full expression at approximately 10 weeks in the WF.LEW and LEW rat strains. The ZH501 strain caused fatal hepatitis in WF rats regardless of age. However, resistance to the SA75 RVFV strain (relatively non-pathogenic for adult rats), was age- and dose-dependent in both WF and LEW rats. The resistance gene transferred to the newly derived WF.LEW congenic rat strain appears to amplify age-dependent resistance of adult rats, resulting in protection against fatal hepatic disease caused by the virulent ZH501 strain. The congenic rat strain will be a valuable asset in elucidating the mechanism of resistance to Rift Valley fever virus governed by the dominant Mendelian gene.

  1. The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

    2018-02-01

    Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

  2. Large-scale lagovirus disease outbreaks in European brown hares (Lepus europaeus) in France caused by RHDV2 strains spatially shared with rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus)

    OpenAIRE

    Le Gall-Reculé, Ghislaine; Lemaitre, Evelyne; Bertagnoli, Stéphane; Hubert, Céline; Top, Sokunthea; Decors, Anouk; Marchandeau, Stéphane; Guitton, Jean-Sébastien

    2017-01-01

    Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) is a lagovirus that causes rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In 2010, a new genotype called RHDV2 emerged in France. It exhibits a larger host range than classical RHDV strains by sporadically infecting different hare species, including the European hare (Lepus europaeus). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that closely related RHDV2 strains circulate locally in both hares and rabbits, and therefore that RHDV2 s...

  3. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  4. A TaqMan-based real time PCR assay for specific detection and quantification of Xylella fastidiosa strains causing bacterial leaf scorch in oleander.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Wei; Shao, Jonathan; Singh, Raghuwinder; Davis, Robert E; Zhao, Tingchang; Huang, Qi

    2013-02-15

    A TaqMan-based real-time PCR assay was developed for specific detection of strains of X. fastidiosa causing oleander leaf scorch. The assay uses primers WG-OLS-F1 and WG-OLS-R1 and the fluorescent probe WG-OLS-P1, designed based on unique sequences found only in the genome of oleander strain Ann1. The assay is specific, allowing detection of only oleander-infecting strains, not other strains of X. fastidiosa nor other plant-associated bacteria tested. The assay is also sensitive, with a detection limit of 10.4fg DNA of X. fastidiosa per reaction in vitro and in planta. The assay can also be applied to detect low numbers of X. fastidiosa in insect samples, or further developed into a multiplex real-time PCR assay to simultaneously detect and distinguish diverse strains of X. fastidiosa that may occupy the same hosts or insect vectors. Specific and sensitive detection and quantification of oleander strains of X. fastidiosa should be useful for disease diagnosis, epidemiological studies, management of oleander leaf scorch disease, and resistance screening for oleander shrubs. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Multiple-locus variant-repeat assay (MLVA) is a useful tool for molecular epidemiologic analysis of Streptococcus agalactiae strains causing bovine mastitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, Andreas; Bruheim, Torkjel; Afset, Jan Egil; Bergh, Kåre

    2012-06-15

    Group B streptococci (GBS) were considered a major cause of mastitis in cattle until preventive measures succeeded in controlling the disease in the 1970s and 1980s. During the last 5-6 years an increasing number of cases have been observed in some Scandinavian countries. A total of 187 GBS isolates from mastitis cases were collected from 119 animals in 34 Norwegian farms in the period from April 2007 to November 2010. 133 (71%) of the isolates were from farms with automated milking systems. The strains underwent typing of capsular polysaccharides (CPS) and surface proteins, and were analyzed by multi-locus variable repeat assay (MLVA) to investigate the epidemiological relationship of strains within and between farms. The GBS strains were differentiated into 12 types by CPS and surface protein analysis, with CPS types V (54%) and IV (34%) predominating. MLVA was superior to CPS and protein typing for strain differentiation, resolving the 187 strains into 37 types. In 29 of 34 farms all GBS strains had identical MLVA profiles specific for each farm. However, in one farm represented with 48 isolates, four MLVA variants with differences in one repeat locus were observed during the almost 3-year long collection period. Similar variations were observed at four other farms. This might reflect the stability of repeat loci under in vivo conditions. Farms with automated milking systems were overrepresented in this material. In conclusion, the five-loci MLVA allowed rapid high-resolution genotyping of the bovine GBS strains within and between farms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A wide extent of inter-strain diversity in virulent and vaccine strains of alphaherpesviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szpara, Moriah L; Tafuri, Yolanda R; Parsons, Lance; Shamim, S Rafi; Verstrepen, Kevin J; Legendre, Matthieu; Enquist, L W

    2011-10-01

    Alphaherpesviruses are widespread in the human population, and include herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and 2, and varicella zoster virus (VZV). These viral pathogens cause epithelial lesions, and then infect the nervous system to cause lifelong latency, reactivation, and spread. A related veterinary herpesvirus, pseudorabies (PRV), causes similar disease in livestock that result in significant economic losses. Vaccines developed for VZV and PRV serve as useful models for the development of an HSV-1 vaccine. We present full genome sequence comparisons of the PRV vaccine strain Bartha, and two virulent PRV isolates, Kaplan and Becker. These genome sequences were determined by high-throughput sequencing and assembly, and present new insights into the attenuation of a mammalian alphaherpesvirus vaccine strain. We find many previously unknown coding differences between PRV Bartha and the virulent strains, including changes to the fusion proteins gH and gB, and over forty other viral proteins. Inter-strain variation in PRV protein sequences is much closer to levels previously observed for HSV-1 than for the highly stable VZV proteome. Almost 20% of the PRV genome contains tandem short sequence repeats (SSRs), a class of nucleic acids motifs whose length-variation has been associated with changes in DNA binding site efficiency, transcriptional regulation, and protein interactions. We find SSRs throughout the herpesvirus family, and provide the first global characterization of SSRs in viruses, both within and between strains. We find SSR length variation between different isolates of PRV and HSV-1, which may provide a new mechanism for phenotypic variation between strains. Finally, we detected a small number of polymorphic bases within each plaque-purified PRV strain, and we characterize the effect of passage and plaque-purification on these polymorphisms. These data add to growing evidence that even plaque-purified stocks of stable DNA viruses exhibit limited sequence

  7. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  8. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  9. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  10. Accelerating harm reduction interventions to confront the HIV epidemic in the Western Pacific and Asia: the role of WHO (WPRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yifei Hu

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The epidemic of HIV/AIDS linked to injecting drug usage is one of the most explosive in recent years. After a historical epicentre in Europe, South and North America, at present it is clearly the main cause of dissemination of the epidemic in Eastern Europe and some key Asian countries. Recently, 10 African countries reported the spread of HIV through people who inject drugs (PWID, breaking one of the final geographical barriers to the globalization of the epidemic of HIV among and from PWID. Several countries of the Asia and Pacific Region have HIV epidemics that are driven by injecting drug usage. Harm reduction interventions have been implemented in many countries and potential barriers to implementation are being overcome. Harm reduction is no longer a marginal approach in the Region; instead, it is the core tool for responding to the HIV/AIDS epidemic among PWID. The development of a comprehensive response in the Region has been remarkable, including scaling up of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs, methadone maintenance treatment (MMT, and care, support and treatment for PWID. This development is being followed up by strong ongoing changes in policies and legislations. The main issue now is to enhance interventions to a level that can impact the epidemic. The World Health Organization (WHO is one of the leading UN agencies promoting harm reduction. Since the establishment of the Global Programme on AIDS, WHO has been working towards an effective response to the HIV epidemic among PWID. WHO's work is organized into a number of components: establishing an evidence base; advocacy; development of normative standards, tools and guidelines; providing technical support to countries; ensuring access to essential medicines, diagnostics and commodities; and mobilizing resources. In this paper, we trace the course of development of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among and from PWID in the Western Pacific and Asia Region (WPRO as well as WHO's role

  11. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  12. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  13. Identifying more epidemic clones during a hospital outbreak of multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Domenech de Cellès

    Full Text Available Infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are a major concern in hospitals. Current infection-control practices legitimately focus on hygiene and appropriate use of antibiotics. However, little is known about the intrinsic abilities of some bacterial strains to cause outbreaks. They can be measured at a population level by the pathogen's transmission rate, i.e. the rate at which the pathogen is transmitted from colonized hosts to susceptible hosts, or its reproduction number, counting the number of secondary cases per infected/colonized host. We collected data covering a 20-month surveillance period for carriage of multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (MDRAB in a surgery ward. All isolates were subjected to molecular fingerprinting, and a cluster analysis of profiles was performed to identify clonal groups. We then applied stochastic transmission models to infer transmission rates of MDRAB and each MDRAB clone. Molecular fingerprinting indicated that 3 clonal complexes spread in the ward. A first model, not accounting for different clones, quantified the level of in-ward cross-transmission, with an estimated transmission rate of 0.03/day (95% credible interval [0.012-0.049] and a single-admission reproduction number of 0.61 [0.30-1.02]. The second model, accounting for different clones, suggested an enhanced transmissibility of clone 3 (transmission rate 0.047/day [0.018-0.091], with a single-admission reproduction number of 0.81 [0.30-1.56]. Clones 1 and 2 had comparable transmission rates (respectively, 0.016 [0.001-0.045], 0.014 [0.001-0.045]. The method used is broadly applicable to other nosocomial pathogens, as long as surveillance data and genotyping information are available. Building on these results, more epidemic clones could be identified, and could lead to follow-up studies dissecting the functional basis for variation in transmissibility of MDRAB lineages.

  14. Variability of the protein sequences of lcrV between epidemic and atypical rhamnose-positive strains of Yersinia pestis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Andrey P; Panfertsev, Evgeniy A; Svetoch, Tat'yana E; Dentovskaya, Svetlana V

    2007-01-01

    Sequencing of lcrV genes and comparison of the deduced amino acid sequences from ten Y. pestis strains belonging mostly to the group of atypical rhamnose-positive isolates (non-pestis subspecies or pestoides group) showed that the LcrV proteins analyzed could be classified into five sequence types. This classification was based on major amino acid polymorphisms among LcrV proteins in the four "hot points" of the protein sequences. Some additional minor polymorphisms were found throughout these sequence types. The "hot points" corresponded to amino acids 18 (Lys --> Asn), 72 (Lys --> Arg), 273 (Cys --> Ser), and 324-326 (Ser-Gly-Lys --> Arg) in the LcrV sequence of the reference Y. pestis strain CO92. One possible explanation for polymorphism in amino acid sequences of LcrV among different strains is that strain-specific variation resulted from adaptation of the plague pathogen to different rodent and lagomorph hosts.

  15. Update on chancroid: an important cause of genital ulcer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langley, C

    1996-08-01

    Chancroid is a major cause of genital ulcer disease worldwide, and occurred at epidemic rates in the United States in the late 1980s. Though the recent epidemic in the U.S. appears to be waning, a number of areas continue to report significant numbers of cases. Chancroid is a particular concern, because, like other diseases that cause genital ulceration, it is associated with an increased risk for transmission or acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recent studies have advanced the understanding of chancroid epidemiology, and new diagnostic tests may improve the ability to recognize and appropriately treat chancroid. Increased awareness of chancroid, with appropriate treatment for suspected lesions, along with public health efforts to implement prevention in high-risk populations, will be critical to prevent ongoing transmission of chancroid, and potentially ongoing transmission of HIV.

  16. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  17. Mechanical properties of biaxially strained poly(L-lactide) tubes: Strain rate and temperature dependence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løvdal, Alexandra Liv Vest; Andreasen, Jens Wenzel; Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    2017-01-01

    Poly(l-lactide) (PLLA) is a bioabsorbable polymer with high stiffness and strength compared to the other commercially available bioabsorbable polymers. The properties of PLLA can be improved by straining, causing deformation-mediated molecular orientation. PLLA tubes were biaxially strained above...

  18. Fighting the Global Cancer Epidemic through Precise Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Cancer has passed heart disease to become the single leading cause of death worldwide. In 2000, there were 10.1 million new cases of cancer and 6.2 million deaths caused by cancer. By 2012, these numbers had risen respectively to 14.1 million and 8.2 million. As the global cancer epidemic continues to spread, the need for effective diagnosis and treatment is growing. Nuclear and other related technologies, such as diagnostic imaging techniques and radiotherapy, are fundamental to diagnosing and treating cancer. Both diagnostic imaging and radiotherapy involve radiation exposure, which can be highly effective for treating patients, but also dangerous to medical staff and patients if not used accurately and safely. Techniques such as medical dosimetry help to ensure the safe use of radiation. Medical dosimetry is a cornerstone of safe and effective cancer diagnosis and treatment. It deals with the measurement of absorbed doses and the optimization of dose delivery in radiation medicine. This includes activities such as audits and the calibration of equipment, the development and dissemination of dosimetry techniques, and the implementation of quality assurance programmes

  19. Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences and the PCR to generate fingerprints of genomic DNAs from Vibrio cholerae O1, O139, and non-O1 strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, I G; Chowdhury, M A; Huq, A; Jacobs, D; Martins, M T; Colwell, R R

    1995-08-01

    Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC) sequence polymorphism was studied in Vibrio Cholerae strains isolated before and after the cholera epidemic in Brazil (in 1991), along with epidemic strains from Peru, Mexico, and India, by PCR. A total of 17 fingerprint patterns (FPs) were detected in the V. cholerae strains examined; 96.7% of the toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains and 100% of the O139 serogroup strains were found to belong to the same FP group comprising four fragments (FP1). The nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 also yielded four fragments but constituted a different FP group (FP2). A total of 15 different patterns were observed among the V. cholerae non-O1 strains. Two patterns were observed most frequently for V. cholerae non-01 strains, 25% of which have FP3, with five fragments, and 16.7% of which have FP4, with two fragments. Three fragments, 1.75, 0.79, and 0.5 kb, were found to be common to both toxigenic and nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains as well as to group FP3, containing V. cholerae non-O1 strains. Two fragments of group FP3, 1.3 and 1.0 kb, were present in FP1 and FP2 respectively. The 0.5-kb fragment was common to all strains and serogroups of V. cholerae analyzed. It is concluded from the results of this study, based on DNA FPs of environmental isolates, that it is possible to detect an emerging virulent strain in a cholera-endemic region. ERIC-PCR constitutes a powerful tool for determination of the virulence potential of V. cholerae O1 strains isolated in surveillance programs and for molecular epidemiological investigations.

  20. Waterborne Exophiala species causing disease in cold-blooded animals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hoog, G.S.; Vicente, V.A.; Najafzadeh, M.J.; Harrak, M.J.; Badali, H.; Seyedmousavi, S.

    2011-01-01

    The majority of mesophilic waterborne species of the black yeast genus Exophiala (Chaetothyriales) belong to a single clade judging from SSU rDNA data. Most taxa are also found to cause cutaneous or disseminated infections in cold-blooded, water animals, occasionally reaching epidemic proportions.