WorldWideScience

Sample records for storm surge waves

  1. Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

    2018-06-01

    This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

  2. Potential Hydrodynamic Loads on Coastal Bridges in the Greater New York Area due to Extreme Storm Surge and Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-18

    This project makes a computer modeling study on vulnerability of coastal bridges in New York City (NYC) metropolitan region to storm surges and waves. Prediction is made for potential surges and waves in the region and consequent hydrodynamic load an...

  3. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  4. Storm surge and wave simulations in the Gulf of Mexico using a consistent drag relation for atmospheric and storm surge models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Vatvani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To simulate winds and water levels, numerical weather prediction (NWP and storm surge models generally use the traditional bulk relation for wind stress, which is characterized by a wind drag coefficient. A still commonly used drag coefficient in those models, some of them were developed in the past, is based on a relation, according to which the magnitude of the coefficient is either constant or increases monotonically with increasing surface wind speed (Bender, 2007; Kim et al., 2008; Kohno and Higaki, 2006. The NWP and surge models are often tuned independently from each other in order to obtain good results. Observations have indicated that the magnitude of the drag coefficient levels off at a wind speed of about 30 m s−1, and then decreases with further increase of the wind speed. Above a wind speed of approximately 30 m s−1, the stress above the air-sea interface starts to saturate. To represent the reducing and levelling off of the drag coefficient, the original Charnock drag formulation has been extended with a correction term.

    In line with the above, the Delft3D storm surge model is tested using both Charnock's and improved Makin's wind drag parameterization to evaluate the improvements on the storm surge model results, with and without inclusion of the wave effects. The effect of waves on storm surge is included by simultaneously simulating waves with the SWAN model on identical model grids in a coupled mode. However, the results presented here will focus on the storm surge results that include the wave effects.

    The runs were carried out in the Gulf of Mexico for Katrina and Ivan hurricane events. The storm surge model was initially forced with H*wind data (Powell et al., 2010 to test the effect of the Makin's wind drag parameterization on the storm surge model separately. The computed wind, water levels and waves are subsequently compared with observation data. Based on the good

  5. On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Marieta; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

    2018-04-01

    Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).

  6. The effect of wave current interactions on the storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Lian; Liu, Huiqing; Peng, Machuan

    The effects of wave-current interactions on the storm surge and inundation induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal regions are examined by using a three-dimensional (3-D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3-D storm surge and inundation modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton ocean model (POM), whereas the wave modeling component is based on the third-generation wave model, simulating waves nearshore (SWAN). The results indicate that the effects of wave-induced surface, bottom, and radiation stresses can separately or in combination produce significant changes in storm surge and inundation. The effects of waves vary spatially. In some areas, the contribution of waves to peak storm surge during Hurricane Hugo reached as high as 0.76 m which led to substantial changes in the inundation and drying areas simulated by the storm surge model.

  7. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

  8. Storm surge climatology report

    OpenAIRE

    Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Joanne; Cussack, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Any increase in flood frequency or severity due to sea level rise or changes in storminess would adversely impact society. It is crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges to have confidence in the datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. We will refine and improve methods to the estimation of extreme sea levels around Europe and more widely. We will do so by developing a comprehensive world picture of storm surge distribution (including extremes) for both tropi...

  9. Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

  10. Effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge in the Taiwan Strait: Insights from Typhoon Morakot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiaolong; Pan, Weiran; Zheng, Xiangjing; Zhou, Shenjie; Tao, Xiaoqin

    2017-08-01

    The effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge are investigated by a two-dimensional wave-current coupling model through simulations of Typhoon Morakot in the Taiwan Strait. The results show that wind wave and slope of sea floor govern wave setup modulations within the nearshore surf zone. Wave setup during Morakot can contribute up to 24% of the total storm surge with a maximum value of 0.28 m. The large wave setup commonly coincides with enhanced radiation stress gradient, which is itself associated with transfer of wave momentum flux. Water levels are to leading order in modulating significant wave height inside the estuary. High water levels due to tidal change and storm surge stabilize the wind wave and decay wave breaking. Outside of the estuary, waves are mainly affected by the current-induced modification of wind energy input to the wave generation. By comparing the observed significant wave height and water level with the results from uncoupled and coupled simulations, the latter shows a better agreement with the observations. It suggests that wave-current interaction plays an important role in determining the extreme storm surge and wave height in the study area and should not be neglected in a typhoon forecast.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

  12. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  13. Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot's Day storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-mei Xie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor'easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot's Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor'easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height (SWH in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.

  14. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a case study for the German Bight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Staneva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave–current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  15. Storm Surge and Wave Impact of Low-Probability Hurricanes on the Lower Delaware Bay—Calibration and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Salehi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes pose major threats to coastal communities and sensitive infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, located in the vicinity of hurricane-prone coastal regions. This study focuses on evaluating the storm surge and wave impact of low-probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay using the Delft3D dynamically coupled wave and flow model. The model comprised Overall and Nested domains. The Overall model domain encompassed portions of the Atlantic Ocean, Delaware Bay, and Chesapeake Bay. The two-level Nested model domains encompassed the Delaware Estuary, its floodplain, and a portion of the continental shelf. Low-probability hurricanes are critical considerations in designing and licensing of new nuclear power plants as well as in establishing mitigating strategies for existing power facilities and other infrastructure types. The philosophy behind low-probability hurricane modeling is to establish reasonable water surface elevation and wave characteristics that have very low to no probability of being exceeded in the region. The area of interest (AOI is located on the west bank of Delaware Bay, almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. The model was first calibrated for Hurricane Isabel (2003 and then applied to synthetic hurricanes with very low probability of occurrence to establish the storm surge envelope at the AOI. The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations of water surface elevation, wind velocity, wave height, and wave period. A range of meteorological, storm track direction, and storm bearing parameters that produce the highest sustained wind speeds were estimated using the National Weather Service (NWS methodology and applied to the model. Simulations resulted in a maximum stillwater elevation and wave height of 7.5 m NAVD88 and 2.5 m, respectively, at the AOI. Comparison of results with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Coastal Comprehensive Study (USACE-NACCS storm surge

  16. Hindcasting of Storm Surges, Currents, and Waves at Lower Delaware Bay during Hurricane Isabel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes are a major threat to coastal communities and infrastructures including nuclear power plants located in low-lying coastal zones. In response, their sensitive elements should be protected by smart design to withstand against drastic impact of such natural phenomena. Accurate and reliable estimate of hurricane attributes is the first step to that effort. Numerical models have extensively grown over the past few years and are effective tools in modeling large scale natural events such as hurricane. The impact of low probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay is investigated using dynamically coupled meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave components of Delft3D software. Efforts are made to significantly reduce the computational overburden of performing such analysis for the industry, yet keeping the same level of accuracy at the area of study (AOS). The model is comprised of overall and nested domains. The overall model domain includes portion of Atlantic Ocean, Delaware, and Chesapeake bays. The nested model domain includes Delaware Bay, its floodplain, and portion of the continental shelf. This study is portion of a larger modeling effort to study the impact of low probability hurricanes on sensitive infrastructures located at the coastal zones prone to hurricane activity. The AOS is located on the east bank of Delaware Bay almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. Model generated wind speed, significant wave height, water surface elevation, and current are calibrated for hurricane Isabel (2003). The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations. Furthermore, sensitivity of surge and wave responses to various hurricane parameters was tested. In line with findings from other researchers, accuracy of wind field played a major role in hindcasting the hurricane attributes.

  17. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

  18. Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

    2016-12-01

    After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

  19. Observing Storm Surges from Space: A New Opportunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Dake; de Young, Brad; Chen, Nancy

    2013-04-01

    Coastal tide gauges can be used to monitor variations of a storm surge along the coast, but not in the cross-shelf direction. As a result, the cross-shelf structure of a storm surge has rarely been observed. In this study we focus on Hurricane Igor-induced storm surge off Newfoundland, Canada. Altimetric observations at about 2:30, September 22, 2010 UTC (hours after the passage of Hurricane Igor) reveal prominent cross-shelf variation of sea surface height during the storm passage, including a large nearshore slope and a mid-shelf depression. A significant coastal surge of 1 m derived from satellite altimetry is found to be consistent with tide-gauge measurements at nearby St. John's station. The post-storm sea level variations at St. John's and Argentia are argued to be associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with phase speeds of 11-13 m/s), generated along the northeast Newfoundland coast hours after the storm moved away from St. John's. The cross-shelf e-folding scale of the shelf wave was estimated to be ~100 km. We further show approximate agreement of altimetric and tide-gauge observations in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Isaac (2012). The study for the first time in the literature shows the robustness of satellite altimetry to observe storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models.

  20. Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot’s Day storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-mei Xie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor’easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot’s Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor’easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height (SWH in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.

  1. Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

  2. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  3. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.; Dawson, Clint N.

    2014-01-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.

    2014-03-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Forcing. Report 3. Intermediate Submission No. 1.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The storm surge study considers both tropical storms and extratropical cyclones for determination of return period storm surge elevations. The...Appendix B: Extratropical Cyclone Selection in Support of FEMA Region III Storm Surge Modeling...stations applied in the storm selection process. ............................................. 56  Table B2. Extratropical cyclones selected from the

  6. Using Satellite Altimetry to Calibrate the Simulation of Typhoon Seth Storm Surge off Southeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohui Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Satellite altimeters can capture storm surges generated by typhoons and tropical storms, if the satellite flies over at the right time. In this study, we show TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-observed storm surge features off Southeast China on 10 October 1994 during Typhoon Seth. We then use a three-dimensional, barotropic, finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM to simulate storm surges. An innovative aspect is that satellite data are used to calibrate the storm surge model to improve model performance, by adjusting model wind forcing fields (the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP reanalysis product in reference to the typhoon best-track data. The calibration reduces the along-track root-mean-square (RMS difference between model and altimetric data from 0.15 to 0.10 m. It also reduces the RMS temporal difference from 0.21 to 0.18 m between the model results and independent tide-gauge data at Xiamen. In particular, the calibrated model produces a peak storm surge of 1.01 m at 6:00 10 October 1994 at Xiamen, agreeing with tide-gauge data; while the peak storm surge with the NCEP forcing is 0.71 m only. We further show that the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides contributes to the peak storm surge by 34% and that the storm surge propagates southwestward as a coastally-trapped Kelvin wave.

  7. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.

    2012-01-01

    levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge

  8. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Vickery, P., D. Wadhera, A. Cox, V. Cardone , J. Hanson, and B. Blanton. 2012. Coastal storm surge analysis: Storm forcing (Intermediate Submission No...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey L. Hanson, Michael F. Forte, Brian Blanton

  9. The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdi, Richard J.; Lotspeich, R. Russell; Robbins, Jeanne C.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Mullaney, John R.; Massey, Andrew J.; Banks, William S.; Roland, Mark A.; Jenter, Harry L.; Peppler, Marie C.; Suro, Thomas P.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Nardi, Mark R.

    2017-06-20

    After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities.As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

  10. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  11. Comparison of two recent storm surge events based on results of field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya; Mikami, Takahito; Esteban, Miguel; Takagi, Hiroshi; Maell, Martin; Iwamoto, Takumu

    2017-10-01

    This paper compares two different types of storm surge disaster based on field surveys. Two cases: a severe storm surge flood with its height of over 5 m due to Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippine, and inundation of storm surge around Nemuro city in Hokkaido of Japan with its maximum surge height of 2.8 m caused by extra-tropical cyclone are taken as examples. For the case of the Typhoon Haiyan, buildings located in coastal region were severely affected due to a rapidly increase in ocean surface. The non-engineering buildings were partially or completely destroyed due to their debris transported to an inner bay region. In fact, several previous reports indicated two unique features, bore-like wave and remarkably high speed currents. These characteristics of the storm surge may contribute to a wide-spread corruption for the buildings around the affected region. Furthermore, in the region where the surge height was nearly 3 m, the wooden houses were completely or partially destroyed. On the other hand, in Nemuro city, a degree of suffering in human and facility caused by the storm surge is minor. There was almost no partially destroyed residential houses even though the height of storm surge reached nearly 2.8 m. An observation in the tide station in Nemuro indicated that this was a usual type of storm surge, which showed a gradual increase of sea level height in several hours without possessing the unique characteristics like Typhoon Haiyan. As a result, not only the height of storm surge but also the robustness of the buildings and characteristics of storm surge, such as bore like wave and strong currents, determined the existent of devastation in coastal regions.

  12. Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

    2014-01-01

    Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

  13. Overview and Design Considerations of Storm Surge Barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooyaart, L.F.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    The risk of flooding in coastal zones is expected to increase due to sea level rise and economic development. In larger bays, estuaries, and coastal waterways, storm surge barriers can be constructed to temporarily close off these systems during storm surges to provide coastal flood protection.

  14. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  15. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

    2013-01-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  16. Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li Huang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.

  17. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  18. Using satellite altimetry and tide gauges for storm surge warning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, O. B.; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2014-01-01

    of Australia. For both locations we have tried to investigate the possibilities and limitations of the use of satellite altimetry to capture high frequency signals (surges) using data from the past 20 years. The two regions are chosen to represent extra-tropical and tropical storm surge conditions. We have...

  19. The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydee Salmun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.

  20. Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsburgh, K.

    2014-12-01

    Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

  1. Using wind setdown and storm surge on Lake Erie to calibrate the air-sea drag coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl

    2013-01-01

    The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1.

  2. Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

    2016-02-01

    The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

  3. Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

    2015-08-01

    Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

  4. A numerical storm surge forecast model with Kalman filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Fujiang; Zhang Zhanhai; Lin Yihua

    2001-01-01

    Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum equations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.

  5. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Xue Jin; Xiaoxia Shi; Jintian Gao; Tongbin Xu; Kedong Yin

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is di...

  6. Model simulation of storm surge potential for Andaman islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    Hydraulics and Oceanography, the Hydrodynamics Module Reference Manual. DHI Water and Environment, Horsholm, Denmark, 58 p. Dube, S.K., Sinha, P C , Rao, A.D., and Rao, G.S., 1985. Numerical modeling of storm surges in the Arabian Sea, Appl. Math Modelling, 9...

  7. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network of sensors was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations, and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast.

  8. Modeling storm waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  9. Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-03-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

  10. Storm surge modeling of Superstorm Sandy in the New York City Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benimoff, A. I.; Blanton, B. O.; Dzedzits, E.; Fritz, W. J.; Kress, M.; Muzio, P.; Sela, L.

    2013-12-01

    Even though the New York/New Jersey area does not lie within the typical 'hurricane belt', recent events and the historical record indicate that large infrequent tropical storms have had direct hits on the region, with impacts being amplified due to the nearly right angle bend in the coastline. The recent plan unveiled by New York City's Mayor Bloomberg lays out mitigation strategies to protect the region's communities, infrastructure, and assets from future storms, and numerical simulation of storm surge and wave hazards driven by potential hurricanes plays a central role in developing and evaluating these strategies. To assist in local planning, recovery, and decision-making, we have used the tide, storm surge, and wind wave model ADCIRC+SWAN to simulate storm surge in one of the most populated areas of the United States: the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. We have generated a new high-resolution triangular finite-element model grid for the region from recent USGS data as well as recent city topographic maps at 2-foot (0.6m) contour intervals, nautical charts, and details of shipping channels. Our hindcast simulations are compared against Superstorm Sandy. We used the City University of New York High Performance Computing Center's Cray XE6tm at the College of Staten Island for these simulations. Hindcasting and analysis of the Superstorm Sandy storm surge and waves indicates that our simulations produce a reasonable representation of actual events. The grid will be used in an ADCIRC-based forecasting system implementation for the region.

  11. Development of Storm Surge Hazard Maps and Advisory System for the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagymay, Alfredo; Caro, Carl Vincent; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Garnet Goting, Prince

    2016-04-01

    The Philippines, located in the most active region of cyclogenesis in the world, experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually. Strong winds brought by tropical cyclones, among other factors, cause storm surges that inundate the coastal areas of the country. As an archipelago with the fourth longest coastline in the world, the country is expose to the threats of storm surges. This was manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013, which devastated the country and left 6,293 deaths and approximately USD 2 billion worth of damages. To prevent such disaster from happening again, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) developed a Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) that aims to warn communities in coastal areas against impending floods due to storm surges. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate 721 tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1951-2013. The resulting storm surge time series from the simulations were added to the maximum tide levels from the WXTide software for the 4,996 observation points placed nearshore in the entire country. The storm tide levels were categorized into four groups based on their peak height to create the SSA - SSA 1 (0.01m to 2m), SSA 2 (2.01m to 3m), SSA 3 (3.01m to 4m), and SSA 4 (4m and above). The time series for each advisory level was used in inundation modelling using FLO-2D, a two-dimensional flood modeling software that uses continuity and dynamic wave momentum equation. The model produced probable extent, depth of inundation, and hazard level for each advisory level. The SSA hazard maps are used as reference to warn communities that are likely to be affected by storm surges. Advisory is released 24 hours in advance and is updated every six hours in the Project NOAH website. It is also being utilized in the pre-disaster risk assessment of the national government agencies and local government units in designing appropriate response to

  12. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S.

    2016-01-01

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters. PMID:26907313

  13. Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    layer non-reflecting boundary condition (NRBC) on the right wall of the model. A NRBC is when an artificial boundary , B, is created, which truncates the... applications ,” Journal of Computational Physics, 2004. [30] P. L. Butzer and R. Weis, “On the lax equivalence theorem equipped with orders,” Journal of...closer to the shoreline. In our simulation, we also learned of the effects spurious waves can have on the results. Due to boundary conditions, a

  14. A Numerical Simulation of Extratropical Storm Surge and Hydrodynamic Response in the Bohai Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Yumei; Ding, Lei

    2014-01-01

    A hindcast of typical extratropical storm surge occurring in the Bohai Sea in October 2003 is performed using a three-dimensional (3D) Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The storm surge model is forced by 10 m winds obtained from the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. It is shown that the simulated storm surge and tides agree well with the observations. The nonlinear interaction between the surge and astronomical tides, the spatial distribution of the max...

  15. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

  16. Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

    2017-09-01

    In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

  17. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness...

  18. Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

    2005-06-15

    Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

  19. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

    2018-06-01

    Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

  20. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, J. P.; Tablazon, J.; Dasallas, L.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Cabacaba, K. M.; Ramos, M. M. A.; Suarez, J. K.; Santiago, J.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-07-01

    Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

  1. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Lapidez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

  2. Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.

    2014-12-01

    Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.

  3. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

  4. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-03-27

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  5. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Jin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc., storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  6. Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

  7. Coastal Flooding Hazards due to storm surges and subsidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal areas before even considering the adverse effects of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change. While permanent inundation may be a prevalent issue, more often floods related to extreme events (storm surges) have the largest...... damage potential.Challenges are amplified in some areas due to subsidence from natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Subsidence of even a few mm/y may over time greatly impair the safety against flooding of coastal communities and must be accounted for in order to accomplish the economically most viable...

  8. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  9. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  10. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Mayo, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Heemink, A. W.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  11. New technology and tool prepared for communication against storm surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letkiewicz, Beata

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the presentation is description of the new technology and tool prepared for communication, information and issue of warnings against storm surges. The Maritime Branch of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management is responsible for preparing the forecast as warning, where the end users are Government Officials and Public. The Maritime Branch carry out the project "Strengthening the administrative capacity in order to improve the management of Polish coastal zone environment" (supported by a grant from Norway through the Norwegian Financial Mechanism). The expected final result of the project is web site www.baltyk.pogodynka.pl. One of the activities of the project is - set up of information website www.baltyk.pogodynka.pl, giving public access to the complied data. Information on web site: - meta data - marine data (on-line measurement: sea level, water temperature, salinity, oxygen concentration); - data bases of mathematical model outputs - forecast data (sea level, currents); - ice conditions of the Baltic Sea, - instructions, information materials with information of polish coastal zone. The aim of set up of the portal is development of communication between users of the system, exchange of the knowledge of marine environment and natural hazards such as storm surges, improving the ability of the region in the scope of the data management about the sea environment and the coastal zone.

  12. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  13. A numerical study on the effects of wave-current-surge interactions on the height and propagation of sea surface waves in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huiqing; Xie, Lian

    2009-06-01

    The effects of wave-current interactions on ocean surface waves induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal waters are examined by using a three-dimensional (3D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3D storm surge modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), the wave modeling component is based on the third generation wave model, Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the inundation model is adopted from [Xie, L., Pietrafesa, L. J., Peng, M., 2004. Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three-dimensional storm surge model. J. Coastal Res., 20, 1209-1223]. The results indicate that the change of water level associated with the storm surge is the primary cause for wave height changes due to wave-surge interaction. Meanwhile, waves propagating on top of surge cause a feedback effect on the surge height by modulating the surface wind stress and bottom stress. This effect is significant in shallow coastal waters, but relatively small in offshore deep waters. The influence of wave-current interaction on wave propagation is relatively insignificant, since waves generally propagate in the direction of the surface currents driven by winds. Wave-current interactions also affect the surface waves as a result of inundation and drying induced by the storm. Waves break as waters retreat in regions of drying, whereas waves are generated in flooded regions where no waves would have occurred without the flood water.

  14. Erosion and its rate on an accumulative Polish dune coast: the effects of the January 2012 storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Łabuz, Tomasz A.

    2014-01-01

    The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves at...

  15. Assessment of the Great Lakes Marine Renewable Energy Resources: Characterizing Lake Erie Surge, Seiche and Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhadzadeh, A.; Hashemi, M. R.

    2016-02-01

    Lake Erie, the fourth largest in surface area, smallest in volume and shallowest among the Great Lakes is approximately 400 km long and 90 km wide. Short term lake level variations are due to storm surge generated by high winds and moving pressure systems over the lake mainly in the southwest-northeast direction, along the lakes longitudinal axis. The historical wave data from three active offshore buoys shows that significant wave height can exceed 5 m in the eastern and central basins. The long-term lake level data show that storm surge can reach up to 3 m in eastern Lake Erie. Owing its shallow depth, Lake Erie frequently experiences seiching motions, the low frequency oscillations that are initiated by storm surge. The seiches whose first mode of oscillations has a period of nearly 14.2 hours can last from several hours to days. In this study, the Lake Erie potential for power generation, primarily using storm surge and seiche and also waves are assessed. Given the cyclic lake level variations due to storm-induced seiching, a concept similar to that of tidal range development is utilized to assess the potential of storm surge and seiche energy harvesting mechanisms for power generation. In addition, wave energy resources of the Lake is characterized -. To achieve these objectives, the following steps are taken : (1) Frequency of occurrence for extreme storm surge and wave events is determined using extreme value analysis such as Peak-Over-Threshold method for the long-term water level and wave data; (2) Spatial and temporal variations of wave height, storm surge and seiche are characterized. The characterization is carried out using the wave and storm surge outputs from numerical simulation of a number of historical extreme events. The coupled ADCIRC and SWAN model is utilized for the modeling; (3) Assessment of the potentials for marine renewable power generation in Lake Erie is made. The approach can be extended to the other lakes in the Great Lakes region.

  16. Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunzburger, M.S.; Hughes, W.B.; Barichivich, W.J.; Staiger, J.S.

    2010-01-01

    Isolated wetlands in the Southeastern United States are dynamic habitats subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Wetlands located near marine environments are subject to alterations in water chemistry due to storm surge during hurricanes. The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on wetland amphibian communities. Thirty-two wetlands in northwestern Florida were sampled over a 45-month period to assess amphibian species richness and water chemistry. During this study, seven wetlands were overwashed by storm surge from Hurricane Dennis which made landfall 10 July 2005 in the Florida panhandle. This event allowed us to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on water chemistry and amphibian communities of the wetlands. Specific conductance across all wetlands was low pre-storm (marine habitats are resistant to the effects of storm surge overwash. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  17. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  18. The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

  19. Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea: The problem and its prediction

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dube, S.K.; Rao, A.D.; Sinha, P.C.; Murty, T.S.; Bahulayan, N.

    to annual economic losses in these countries. Thus, the real time monitoring and warning of storm surge is of great concern for this region. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of major aspects of the storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal...

  20. Will oscillating wave surge converters survive tsunamis?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O’Brien

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With an increasing emphasis on renewable energy resources, wave power technology is becoming one of the realistic solutions. However, the 2011 tsunami in Japan was a harsh reminder of the ferocity of the ocean. It is known that tsunamis are nearly undetectable in the open ocean but as the wave approaches the shore its energy is compressed, creating large destructive waves. The question posed here is whether an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC could withstand the force of an incoming tsunami. Several tools are used to provide an answer: an analytical 3D model developed within the framework of linear theory, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations and empirical formulas. Numerical results show that run-up and draw-down can be amplified under some circumstances, leading to an OWSC lying on dry ground!

  1. Predicting Typhoon Induced Storm Surges Using the Operational Ocean Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Hyup You

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was performed to compare storm surges simulated by the operational storm surges/tide forecast system (STORM : Storm surges/Tide Operational Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA with observations from 30 coastal tidal stations during nine typhoons that occurred between 2005 and 2007. The results (bias showed that for cases of overestimation (or underestimation, storm surges tended to be overestimated (as well as underestimated at all coastal stations. The maximum positive bias was approximately 6.92 cm for Typhoon Ewiniar (2006, while the maximum negative bias was approximately -12.06 cm for Typhoon Khanun (2005. The maximum and minimum root mean square errors (RMSEs were 14.61 and 6.78 cm, which occurred for Typhoons Khanun (2005 and Usagi (2007, respectively. For all nine typhoons, total averaged RMSE was approximately 10.2 cm. Large differences between modeled and observed storm surges occurred in two cases. In the first, a very weak typhoon, such as Typhoon Khanun (2005, caused low storm surges. In the other, exemplified by Typhoon Nari (2007, there were errors in the predicted typhoon strength used as input data for the storm surge model.

  2. Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines Through Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Using Tracks of Historical Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, John Phillip; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Santiago, Joy; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Ramos, Michael Marie Angelo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 07 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the typhoon's storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 meters were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology, Government of the Philippines, to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. DOST-Project NOAH used the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model, a numerical code that simulates and predicts storm surges spawned by tropical cyclones. Input parameters for the storm surge model include bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed. The simulations were made using Haiyan's pressure and wind speed as the forcing parameters. The simulated storm surge height values were added to the maximum tide level obtained from WXTide, software that contains a catalogue of worldwide astronomical tides, to come up with storm tide levels. The resulting water level was used as input to FLO-2D to generate the storm tide inundation maps. One product of this study is a list of the most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a Risk-Sensitive Land Use Plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings

  3. Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

  4. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  5. Idealised modelling of storm surges in large-scale coastal basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Wenlong

    2015-01-01

    Coastal areas around the world are frequently attacked by various types of storms, threatening human life and property. This study aims to understand storm surge processes in large-scale coastal basins, particularly focusing on the influences of geometry, topography and storm characteristics on the

  6. Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

    2007-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

  7. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl; Galarneau, Thomas J

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS). We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  8. Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

  9. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  10. The Effect of Coastal Development on Storm Surge Flooding in Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Barrier islands and associated bays along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are a favorite place for both living and visiting. Many of them are vulnerable to storm surge flooding because of low elevations and constantly being subjected to the impacts of storms. The population increase and urban development along the barrier coast have altered the shoreline configuration, resulting in a dramatic change in the coastal flooding pattern in some areas. Here we present such a case based on numerical simulations of storm surge flooding caused by the1926 hurricane in the densely populated area surrounding Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The construction of harbor and navigation channels, and the development of real estate and the roads connecting islands along Biscayne Bay have changed the geometry of Biscayne Bay since 1910s. Storm surge simulations show that the Port of Miami and Dodge Island constructed by human after 1950 play an important role in changing storm surge inundation pattern along Biscayne Bay. Dodge Island enhances storm surge and increases inundation in the area south of the island, especially at the mouth of Miami River (Downtown of Miami), and reduces storm surge flooding in the area north of the island, especially in Miami Beach. If the Hurricane Miami of 1926 happened today, the flooding area would be reduced by 55% and 20% in the Miami Beach and North Miami areas, respectively. Consequently, it would prevent 400 million of property and 10 thousand people from surge flooding according to 2010 U.S census and 2007 property tax data. Meanwhile, storm water would penetrate further inland south of Dodge Island and increase the flooding area by 25% in the Miami River and Downtown Miami areas. As a result, 200 million of property and five thousand people would be impacted by storm surge.

  11. A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

  12. Erosion reasons and rate on accumulative Polish dune coast caused by the January 2012 storm surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz A. Łabuz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves attacking the coast for almost 12 days. Quantitative analyses of the morphological dynamics of the coastal dunes are presented for 57 profiles located along the coast. Only those accumulative sections of the Polish coast are analysed where sand accumulation did occur and led to new foredune development. The mean rate of dune erosion was 2.5 m3 per square metre with an average toe retreat of 1.4 m. Erosion understood as dune retreat was greater when a beach was lower (correlation coefficient 0.8. Dune erosion did not occur on coasts with beaches higher than 3.2 m or on lower ones covered by embryo dunes.

  13. Numerical modelling of tides and storm surges in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sindhu, B.

    were done. A storm surge model was developed to simulate total water levels and derived surges caused by low pressure systems identified during the past 27 years (1974-2000) in the Bay of Bengal. Study also estimated the return levels of extreme sea...

  14. Modeling Flood Inundation Induced by River Flow and Storm Surges over a River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bo Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Low-lying coastal regions and their populations are at risk during storm surge events and high freshwater discharges from upriver. An integrated storm surge and flood inundation modeling system was used to simulate storm surge and inundation in the Tsengwen River basin and the adjacent coastal area in southern Taiwan. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with an unstructured grid was used, which was driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries and freshwater discharge at the upriver boundary. The model was validated against the observed water levels for three typhoon events. The simulation results for the model were in reasonable agreement with the observational data. The model was then applied to investigate the effects of a storm surge, freshwater discharge, and a storm surge combined with freshwater discharge during an extreme typhoon event. The super Typhoon Haiyan (2013 was artificially shifted to hit Taiwan: the modeling results showed that the inundation area and depth would cause severe overbank flow and coastal flooding for a 200 year return period flow. A high-resolution grid model is essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and inundation.

  15. Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

  16. Effects of cluster land reclamation projects on storm surge in Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-lin Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations in coastline geometry caused by coastal engineering affect tides, storm surges, and storm tides. Three cluster land reclamation projects have been planned for construction in the Jiaojiang Estuary during the period from 2011 to 2023. They will cause significant changes in coastline geometry. In this study, a surge-tide coupled model was established based on a three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM. A series of numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of variations in coastline geometry on tides, storm surges, and storm tides. This model was calibrated using data observed at the Haimen and Ruian gauge stations and then used to reproduce the tides, storm surges, and storm tides in the Jiaojiang Estuary caused by Typhoon Winnie in 1997. Results show that the high tide level, peak storm surge, and high storm tide level at the Haimen Gauge Station increased along with the completion of reclamation projects, and the maximum increments caused by the third project were 0.13 m, 0.50 m, and 0.43 m, respectively. The envelopes with maximum storm tide levels of 7.0 m and 8.0 m inside the river mouth appeared to move seaward, with the latter shifting 1.8 km, 3.3 km, and 4.4 km due to the first project, second project, and third project, respectively. The results achieved in this study contribute to reducing the effects of, and preventing storm disasters after the land reclamation in the Jiaojiang Estuary.

  17. Modelling the effects of tides and storm surges on coastal aquifers using a coupled surface-subsurface approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Herold, Maria; Ptak, Thomas

    2013-06-01

    Coastal aquifers are complex hydrologic systems because many physical processes interact: (i) variably saturated flow, (ii) spatial-temporal fluid density variations, (iii) tidal fluctuations, (iv) storm surges overtopping dykes, and (v) surface runoff of storm water. The HydroGeoSphere model is used to numerically simulate coastal flow dynamics, assuming a fully coupled surface-subsurface approach, accounting for all processes listed above. The diffusive wave approximation of the St. Venant equation is used to describe surface flow. Surface flow and salt transport are fully coupled with subsurficial variably saturated, variable-density flow and salt transport through mathematical terms that represent exchange of fluid mass and solute mass, respectively. Tides and storm surges induce a time-variant head that is applied to nodes of the surface domain. The approach is applied to real cases of tide and storm surge events. Tide simulation results confirm the existence of a recirculating zone, forming beneath the upper part of the intertidal zone. By monitoring the exchange fluid flux rates through the beach, it was found that the major inflow to the aquifer takes place at the upper part of the intertidal zone, which explains the formation of the recirculating zone. The recirculating zone is forming particularly during rising tide. Results from a storm surge simulation show that plume fingers develop below the flooded land surface. Natural remediation by seaward flowing freshwater is relatively slow, such that reducing the salt concentration in the aquifer down to drinking water standards takes up to 10 years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessment of storm surge disaster potential for the Andaman Islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    . Supporting volume 1: math- ematical modelling of cyclone surge and related flooding. In: Cy- clone Damage in Bangladesh. United Nations Centre for Regional Development, pp. 9–37. DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute), 2002. MIKE 21 Coastal Hydrau- lics...

  19. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Modeling System Validation. Report 4: Intermediate Submission No. 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Hurricane Isabel, Hurricane Ernesto, and Extratropical Storm Ida. Model skill was accessed by quantitative comparison of model output to wind, wave...25. Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida maximum wind speeds. ......................................................... 41  Figure 26. Extratropical Storm ...Nor’Ida wind validation stations. ........................................................ 42  Figure 27. Comparisons of Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida wind

  20. Tropical cyclone induced asymmetry of sea level surge and fall and its presentation in a storm surge model with parametric wind fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    The asymmetry of tropical cyclone induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) is studied using a three-dimensional storm surge model. It is found that the negative surge induced by offshore winds is more sensitive to wind speed and direction changes than the positive surge by onshore winds. As a result, negative surge is inherently more difficult to forecast than positive surge since there is uncertainty in tropical storm wind forecasts. The asymmetry of negative and positive surge under parametric wind forcing is more apparent in shallow water regions. For tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure, the surge asymmetry increases with decreasing storm translation speed. For those with the same translation speed, a weaker tropical cyclone is expected to gain a higher AI (asymmetry index) value though its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. With fixed RMW (radius of maximum wind), the relationship between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous and depends on the value of RMW. Tropical cyclone's wind inflow angle can also affect surge asymmetry. A set of idealized cases as well as two historic tropical cyclones are used to illustrate the surge asymmetry.

  1. Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

    2018-05-01

    Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

  2. Impacts of Storm Surge Mitigation Strategies on Aboveground Storage Tank Chemical Spill Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, C.; Bass, B. J.; Bernier, C.; Samii, A.; Dawson, C.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    The Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located in the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston region of the upper Texas Coast, is one of the busiest waterways in the United States and is home to one of the largest petrochemical complexes in the world. Due to the proximity of the HSC to Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, chemical spills resulting from storm surge damage to aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) pose serious threats to the environment, residential communities, and national/international markets whose activities in the HSC generate billions of dollars annually. In an effort to develop a comprehensive storm surge mitigation strategy for Galveston Bay and its constituents, Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center proposed two structural storm surge mitigation concepts, the Mid Bay Structure (MBS) and the Lower Bay Structure (LBS) as components of the Houston-Galveston Area Protection System (H-GAPS) project. The MBS consists of levees along the HSC and a navigational gate across the channel, and the LBS consists of a navigation gate and environmental gates across Bolivar Road. The impacts of these two barrier systems on the fate of AST chemical spills in the HSC have previously been unknown. This study applies the coupled 2D SWAN+ADCIRC model to simulate hurricane storm surge circulation within the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay due to a synthetic storm which results in approximately 250-year surge levels in Galveston Bay. The SWAN+ADCIRC model is run using high-resolution computational meshes that incorporate the MBS and LBS scenarios, separately. The resulting wind and water velocities are then fed into a Lagrangian particle transport model to simulate the spill trajectories of the ASTs most likely to fail during the 250-year proxy storm. Results from this study illustrate how each storm surge mitigation strategy impacts the transport of chemical spills (modeled as Lagrangian particles) during storm surge as

  3. Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Neumann, James; Ludwig, Lindsay; Verly, Caroleen; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew; Ravela, Srinivas

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated storm surge level for the 100-year storm surge, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. As is well-established in the literature, sea level rise will increase the risk of storms by raising the base sea level from which surg...

  4. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  5. Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

    2017-12-01

    The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010

  6. An Exploration of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques in Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyra M. Bryant

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As hurricanes continue to threaten coastal communities, accurate storm surge forecasting remains a global priority. Achieving a reliable storm surge prediction necessitates accurate hurricane intensity and wind field information. The wind field must be converted to wind stress, which represents the air-sea momentum flux component required in storm surge and other oceanic models. This conversion requires a multiplicative drag coefficient for the air density and wind speed to represent the air-sea momentum exchange at a given location. Air density is a known parameter and wind speed is a forecasted variable, whereas the drag coefficient is calculated using an empirical correlation. The correlation’s accuracy has brewed a controversy of its own for more than half a century. This review paper examines the lineage of drag coefficient correlations and their acceptance among scientists.

  7. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-01-01

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models. PMID:26499262

  8. Storm surges-An option for Hamburg, Germany, to mitigate expected future aggravation of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, Hans von; Goennert, Gabriele; Meine, Manfred

    2008-01-01

    Summary: Rising sea level together with regionally increased storm activity, caused by elevated and increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will in many parts of the world increase the risk of storm surges significantly. Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may mitigate the increasing risks somewhat, but the major task for regional and local stakeholders will be to prepare for appropriate adaptation. In most cases, possible strategies include intensification of coastal defense measures, in particular strengthening dykes, and adaptation to intermittent flooding. In case of Hamburg and the tidal Elbe river a third option seems to be available, which aims at mitigating storm surge risks by applying estuary engineering constructions. This option is sketched in this paper. The option has the potential to significantly reduce the expected future increases of local surge heights

  9. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-10-01

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

  10. Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E. Neumann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.

  11. Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    2017-07-01

    Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

  12. Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Forbes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

  13. Storm-surge flooding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terenzi, John; Ely, Craig R.; Jorgenson, M. Torre

    2014-01-01

    Coastal regions of Alaska are regularly affected by intense storms of ocean origin, the frequency and intensity of which are expected to increase as a result of global climate change. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), situated in western Alaska on the eastern edge of the Bering Sea, is one of the largest deltaic systems in North America. Its low relief makes it especially susceptible to storm-driven flood tides and increases in sea level. Little information exists on the extent of flooding caused by storm surges in western Alaska and its effects on salinization, shoreline erosion, permafrost thaw, vegetation, wildlife, and the subsistence-based economy. In this paper, we summarize storm flooding events in the Bering Sea region of western Alaska during 1913 – 2011 and map both the extent of inland flooding caused by autumn storms on the central YKD, using Radarsat-1 and MODIS satellite imagery, and the drift lines, using high-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery and field surveys. The largest storm surges occurred in autumn and were associated with high tides and strong (> 65 km hr-1) southwest winds. Maximum inland extent of flooding from storm surges was 30.3 km in 2005, 27.4 km in 2006, and 32.3 km in 2011, with total flood area covering 47.1%, 32.5%, and 39.4% of the 6730 km2 study area, respectively. Peak stages for the 2005 and 2011 storms were 3.1 m and 3.3 m above mean sea level, respectively—almost as high as the 3.5 m amsl elevation estimated for the largest storm observed (in November 1974). Several historically abandoned village sites lie within the area of inundation of the largest flood events. With projected sea level rise, large storms are expected to become more frequent and cover larger areas, with deleterious effects on freshwater ponds, non-saline habitats, permafrost, and landscapes used by nesting birds and local people.

  14. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  15. Storm Surge Reconstruction and Return Water Level Estimation in Southeast Asia for the 20th Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cid, Alba; Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.; Muis, Sanne

    2018-01-01

    We present a methodology to reconstruct the daily maximum storm surge levels, obtained from tide gauges, based on the surrounding atmospheric conditions from an atmospheric reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis-20CR). Tide gauge records in Southeast Asia are relatively short, so this area is often

  16. Building with Nature: in search of resilient storm surge protection strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slobbe, van E.J.J.; Vriend, de H.J.; Aarninkhof, S.G.J.; Lulofs, K.; Vries, de M.; Dircke, P.

    2013-01-01

    Low-lying, densely populated coastal areas worldwide are under threat, requiring coastal managers to develop new strategies to cope with land subsidence, sea-level rise and the increasing risk of storm-surge-induced floods. Traditional engineering approaches optimizing for safety are often

  17. Improving short-range ensemble Kalman storm surge forecasting using robust adaptive inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altaf, M.U.; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H? filter. By design, an H? filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense

  18. Ebb-tidal delta morphology in response to a storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eelkema, M.; Wang, Z.B.; Hibma, A.

    2012-01-01

    The Eastern Scheldt ebb-tidal delta morphology has been adapting for the past 25 years in response to the construction of the Eastern Scheldt storm-surge barrier in 1986. As a result of the barrier, there has been a decrease in tidal amplitudes, volumes, and average flow velocities, and there is

  19. Influence of Closing Storm Surge Barrier on Extreme Water Levels and Water Exchange; The Limfjord, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    the increased risk of flooding in the estuary has revitalized the discussion whether this connection should be closed. In this paper, it is shown by numerical simulation that the establishment of a storm surge barrier across Thyborøn Channel can significantly reduce the peak water levels in the central...

  20. Surge of plasma waves in an inhomogeneous plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benhassine, Mohammed

    1985-01-01

    The first part of this research thesis addresses the propagation of waves in a plasma. It presents the equation of propagation of an electromagnetic wave in a plasma without magnetic field, and analyses the propagation in an inhomogeneous medium. The second part addresses the wave-particle interaction: interaction between electrons and an electromagnetic wave, between electrons and an electrostatic wave (trapping), and between electrons and a localised electric field. The third chapter presents the analytic theory of oscillations of a cold plasma (macroscopic equations in Lagrangian coordinates, analytic solution before surge). The next chapter discusses physical interpretations before the wave surge, after the wave surge, and about energy exchange (within or outside of resonance). Numerical simulations and their results are then reported and discussed. The sixth chapter addresses the case of an electrostatic wave surge in a hot plasma. It notably addresses the following aspects: equivalence between the description of moments and the Waterbag model, interaction between non linearity and thermal effects, variation of electric field amplitude with temperature. Results of numerical simulations are presented, and the last part addresses experimental predictions for microwaves-plasma interaction and laser-matter interaction [fr

  1. Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

    2016-08-01

    Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

  2. Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

    2014-12-01

    In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS

  3. Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular

  4. Observing storm surges in the Bay of Bengal from satellite altimetry

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Antony, C.; Testut, L.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    with the large tidal ranges give rise to extreme sea level in the head bay and surrounding regions. Moreover, low-lying nature of the coast and the dense population in the region make the coasts of the northern Bay of Bengal highly vulnerable to storm surges...-gauge data during the passage of the hurricane Igor that crossed Newfoundland in 2010. For this event, St. John’s tide gauge recorded a maximum surge of 94 cm and Jason-2 (the track located 89 km away from the tide-gauge station) showed positive sea-level...

  5. Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory D Webster

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. METHODS: Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual-perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

  6. Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

    2014-11-01

    Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

  7. Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

  8. Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

  9. Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

  10. A Tsunami Ball Approach to Storm Surge and Inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven N. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of storm surge and inundation solve equations of continuity and momentum on fixed finite-difference/finite-element meshes. I develop a completely new approach that uses a momentum equation to accelerate bits or balls of water over variable depth topography. The thickness of the water column at any point equals the volume density of balls there. In addition to being more intuitive than traditional methods, the tsunami ball approach has several advantages. (a By tracking water balls of fixed volume, the continuity equation is satisfied automatically and the advection term in the momentum equation becomes unnecessary. (b The procedure is meshless in the finite-difference/finite-element sense. (c Tsunami balls care little if they find themselves in the ocean or inundating land. (d Tsunami ball calculations of storm surge can be done on a laptop computer. I demonstrate and calibrate the method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I run two “What If” hurricane scenarios—Katrina over Savannah, Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

  11. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...... changes the return period statistics, with a best estimate of a 100 year event changing from 1.5 meters (Sørensen et al. 2013) to 2.6 [2.2 – 2.8] meters (present study) in Køge just south of Copenhagen. Thus, with the tide gauge-based statistics, the storm surge on January 4 2017 was a 100 year event......, but with the revised statistics using historic evidence, much larger events can be expected. Further, we assess the very large impact of sea level rise on the storm surge statistics. As an example, according to the official statistics of southern Copenhagen, the flooding of a present day 100 year event...

  12. Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jennifer M.; Wolf, Judith

    2009-05-01

    We revisit the surge of November 1977, a storm event which caused damage on the Sefton coast in NW England. A hindcast has been made with a coupled surge-tide-wave model, to investigate whether a wave-dependent surface drag is necessary for accurate surge prediction, and also if this can be represented by an optimised Charnock parameter. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Modelling System-Wave Model (POLCOMS-WAM) has been used to model combined tides, surges, waves and wave-current interaction in the Irish Sea on a 1.85 km grid. This period has been previously thoroughly studied, e.g. Jones and Davies [Jones, J.E., Davies, A.M., 1998. Storm surge computations for the Irish Sea using a three-dimensional numerical model including wave-current interaction. Continental Shelf Research 18(2), 201-251] and we build upon this previous work to validate the POLCOMS-WAM model to test the accuracy of surge elevation predictions in the study area. A one-way nested approach has been set up from larger scale models to the Irish Sea model. It was demonstrated that (as expected) swell from the North Atlantic does not have a significant impact in the eastern Irish Sea. To capture the external surge generated outside of the Irish Sea a (1/9° by 1/6°) model extending beyond the continental shelf edge was run using the POLCOMS model for tide and surge. The model results were compared with tide gauge observations around the eastern Irish Sea. The model was tested with different wind-stress formulations including Smith and Banke [Smith, S.D., Banke, E.G., 1975. Variation of the surface drag coefficient with wind speed. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorology Society, 101(429), 665-673] and Charnock [Charnock, H., 1955. Wind-stress on a water surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 81(350), 639-640]. In order to get a single parameterisation that works with wave-coupling, the wave-derived surface roughness length has been imposed in the surge model

  13. A probabilistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Kirshen, P. H.; Bosma, K.; Watson, C.; Miller, S.; McArthur, K.

    2015-12-01

    There now exists a plethora of information attesting to the reality of our changing climate and its impacts on both human and natural systems. There also exists a growing literature linking climate change impacts and transportation infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, railway, shipping ports, etc.) which largely agrees that the nation's transportation systems are vulnerable. To assess this vulnerability along the coast, flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge has most commonly been evaluated by simply increasing the water surface elevation and then estimating flood depth by comparing the new water surface elevation with the topographic elevations of the land surface. While this rudimentary "bathtub" approach may provide a first order identification of potential areas of vulnerability, accurate assessment requires a high resolution, physically-based hydrodynamic model that can simulate inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge, tides and wave action for site-specific locations. Furthermore, neither the "bathtub" approach nor other scenario-based approaches can quantify the probability of flooding due to these impacts. We developed a high resolution coupled ocean circulation-wave model (ADCIRC/SWAN) that utilizes a Monte Carlo approach for predicting the depths and associated exceedance probabilities of flooding due to both tropical (hurricanes) and extra-tropical storms under current and future climate conditions. This required the development of an entirely new database of meteorological forcing (e.g. pressure, wind speed, etc.) for historical Nor'easters in the North Atlantic basin. Flooding due to hurricanes and Nor'easters was simulated separately and then composite flood probability distributions were developed. Model results were used to assess the vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel system in Boston, Massachusetts to coastal flooding now and in the future. Local and regional adaptation strategies were

  14. VLF Wave Properties During Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blancarte, J.; Artemyev, A.; Mozer, F.; Agapitov, O. V.

    2017-12-01

    Whistler-mode chorus is important for the global dynamics of the inner magnetosphere electron population due to its ability to scatter and accelerate electrons of a wide energy range in the outer radiation belt. The parameters of these VLF emissions change dynamically during geomagnetic storms. Presented is an analysis of four years of Van Allen probe data, utilizing electric and magnetic field in the VLF range focused on the dynamics of chorus wave properties during the enhancement of geomagnetic activity. It is found that VLF emissions respond to geomagnetic storms in more complicated ways than just by affecting the waves' amplitude growth or depletion. Oblique wave amplitudes grow together with parallel waves during periods of intermediate geomagnetic activity, while the occurrence rate of oblique waves decreases during larger geomagnetic storms.

  15. Erosion and its rate on an accumulative Polish dune coast: the effects of the January 2012 storm surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz A. Łabuz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves attacking the coast for almost 12 days. Quantitative analyses of the morphological dynamics of the coastal dunes are presented for 57 profiles located along the coast. Only those accumulative sections of the Polish coast are analysed where sand accumulation did occur and led to new foredune development. The mean rate of dune erosion was 2.5 m3 per square metre with an average toe retreat of 1.4 m. Erosion understood as dune retreat was greater when a beach was lower (correlation coefficient 0.8. Dune erosion did not occur on coasts with beaches higher than 3.2 m or on lower ones covered by embryo dunes.

  16. Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

    2010-01-01

    Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

  17. Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

  18. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

  19. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

    2016-01-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  20. Modeling Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Wind Induced Risk Along the Bay of Bengal Coastline Using a Statistical Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushra, N.; Trepanier, J. C.; Rohli, R. V.

    2017-12-01

    High winds, torrential rain, and storm surges from tropical cyclones (TCs) cause massive destruction to property and cost the lives of many people. The coastline of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) ranks as one of the most susceptible to TC storm surges in the world due to low-lying elevation and a high frequency of occurrence. Bangladesh suffers the most due to its geographical setting and population density. Various models have been developed to predict storm surge in this region but none of them quantify statistical risk with empirical data. This study describes the relationship and dependency between empirical TC storm surge and peak reported wind speed at the BoB using a bivariate statistical copula and data from 1885-2011. An Archimedean, Gumbel copula with margins defined by the empirical distributions is specified as the most appropriate choice for the BoB. The model provides return periods for pairs of TC storm surge and peak wind along the BoB coastline. The BoB can expect a TC with peak reported winds of at least 24 m s-1 and surge heights of at least 4.0 m, on average, once every 3.2 years, with a quartile pointwise confidence interval of 2.7-3.8 years. In addition, the BoB can expect peak reported winds of 62 m s-1 and surge heights of at least 8.0 m, on average, once every 115.4 years, with a quartile pointwise confidence interval of 55.8-381.1 years. The purpose of the analysis is to increase the understanding of these dangerous TC characteristics to reduce fatalities and monetary losses into the future. Application of the copula will mitigate future threats of storm surge impacts on coastal communities of the BoB.

  1. Purple pitcher plant (Sarracenia rosea Dieback and partial community disassembly following experimental storm surge in a coastal pitcher plant bog.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J Abbott

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise and frequent intense hurricanes associated with climate change will result in recurrent flooding of inland systems such as Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs by storm surges. These surges can transport salt water and sediment to freshwater bogs, greatly affecting their biological integrity. Purple pitcher plants (Sarracenia rosea are Gulf Coast pitcher plant bog inhabitants that could be at a disadvantage under this scenario because their pitcher morphology may leave them prone to collection of saline water and sediment after a surge. We investigated the effects of storm surge water salinity and sediment type on S. rosea vitality, plant community structure, and bog soil-water conductivity. Plots (containing ≥1 ramet of S. rosea were experimentally flooded with fresh or saline water crossed with one of three sediment types (local, foreign, or no sediment. There were no treatment effects on soil-water conductivity; nevertheless, direct exposure to saline water resulted in significantly lower S. rosea cover until the following season when a prescribed fire and regional drought contributed to the decline of all the S. rosea to near zero percent cover. There were also significant differences in plant community structure between treatments over time, reflecting how numerous species increased in abundance and a few species decreased in abundance. However, in contrast to S. rosea, most of the other species in the community appeared resilient to the effects of storm surge. Thus, although the community may be somewhat affected by storm surge, those few species that are particularly sensitive to the storm surge disturbance will likely drop out of the community and be replaced by more resilient species. Depending on the longevity of these biological legacies, Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs may be incapable of fully recovering if they become exposed to storm surge more frequently due to climate change.

  2. Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.

    2012-12-01

    Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.

  3. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens; Meyers, Steven; Luther, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a well-known facet of natural hazards along the US coastline where nearly 40% of the population resides in coastal counties. Given the heavy reliance on the coastal zone for natural resources and economic activity, flood preparedness and safety is a key element of long-term resilience. A clear understanding of the various flood types and changes in the frequency of their occurrence is critical towards reliable estimates of vulnerability and potential impacts in the near-term as well as into the future. When the two main flood drivers for coastal areas storm surge and heavy precipitation occur in tandem the potential for significant flooding is much greater than from either in isolation. Exploring the probability of these 'compound events' and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high impact risks. For the contiguous US the likelihood of the joint occurrence of the two phenomena is largely unknown. Here we show - using storm surge and precipitation records spanning the last century - that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the US east and Gulf coasts, relative to the west coast. We also show that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the last century along large coastline stretches including many of the major coastal cities. For New York City - as an example - this increase is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns also favouring high precipitation. Preliminary analyses reveal that these synoptic scale changes are closely linked to large scale and low frequency climate variations. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing the risk of compound flooding within the design process of coastal and urban infrastructure in a non-stationary framework and to explore the potential effects of climate change on these high impact events.

  4. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  5. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    relevant historical cyclones and on the simulation of the associated wave and cyclonic surge. The combined local sea elevations, called "set-up", are then fitted with a statistical distribution in order to obtain its time return characteristics. Several run-ups are then extracted, the inundation areas are calculated and the relative losses of the affected assets are deduced. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and the exposed elements location and seismic vulnerability result from past public risk assessment studies. The loss estimations are computed for several return time periods, measured in percentage of buildings being in a given EMS-98 damage state per grid block, which are then converted into loss ratio. In parallel, an asset estimation is conducted. It is mainly focused on private housing, but it considers some major public infrastructures as well. The final outcome of this work is a direct economic loss-frequency plot for earthquake and storm surge. The Probable Maximum Loss and the Average Annual Loss derivate from this risk curve. In addition, different sources of uncertainty are identified through the loss estimation process. The full propagation of these uncertainties can provide an interval of confidence, which can be assigned to the risk-curve and we show how such additional information can be useful for risk comparison.

  6. Quantifying riverine and storm-surge flood risk by single-family residence: application to Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Kunreuther, Howard; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

    2013-12-01

    The development of catastrophe models in recent years allows for assessment of the flood hazard much more effectively than when the federally run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created in 1968. We propose and then demonstrate a methodological approach to determine pure premiums based on the entire distribution of possible flood events. We apply hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses to a sample of 300,000 single-family residences in two counties in Texas (Travis and Galveston) using state-of-the-art flood catastrophe models. Even in zones of similar flood risk classification by FEMA there is substantial variation in exposure between coastal and inland flood risk. For instance, homes in the designated moderate-risk X500/B zones in Galveston are exposed to a flood risk on average 2.5 times greater than residences in X500/B zones in Travis. The results also show very similar average annual loss (corrected for exposure) for a number of residences despite their being in different FEMA flood zones. We also find significant storm-surge exposure outside of the FEMA designated storm-surge risk zones. Taken together these findings highlight the importance of a microanalysis of flood exposure. The process of aggregating risk at a flood zone level-as currently undertaken by FEMA-provides a false sense of uniformity. As our analysis indicates, the technology to delineate the flood risks exists today. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. An Approach to Remove the Systematic Bias from the Storm Surge forecasts in the Venice Lagoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canestrelli, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this work a novel approach is proposed for removing the systematic bias from the storm surge forecast computed by a two-dimensional shallow-water model. The model covers both the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas and provides the forecast at the entrance of the Venice Lagoon. The wind drag coefficient at the water-air interface is treated as a calibration parameter, with a different value for each range of wind velocities and wind directions. This sums up to a total of 16-64 parameters to be calibrated, depending on the chosen resolution. The best set of parameters is determined by means of an optimization procedure, which minimizes the RMS error between measured and modeled water level in Venice for the period 2011-2015. It is shown that a bias is present, for which the peaks of wind velocities provided by the weather forecast are largely underestimated, and that the calibration procedure removes this bias. When the calibrated model is used to reproduce events not included in the calibration dataset, the forecast error is strongly reduced, thus confirming the quality of our procedure. The proposed approach it is not site-specific and could be applied to different situations, such as storm surges caused by intense hurricanes.

  8. Dynamical Downscaling of Typhoon Vera (1959) and related Storm Surge based on JRA-55 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninomiya, J.; Takemi, T.; Mori, N.; Shibutani, Y.; Kim, S.

    2015-12-01

    Typhoon Vera in 1959 is historical extreme typhoon that caused severest typhoon damage mainly due to the storm surge up to 389 cm in Japan. Vera developed 895 hPa on offshore and landed with 929.2 hPa. There are many studies of the dynamical downscaling of Vera but it is difficult to simulate accurately because of the lack of the accuracy of global reanalysis data. This study carried out dynamical downscaling experiment of Vera using WRF downscaling forced by JRA-55 that are latest atmospheric model and reanalysis data. In this study, the reproducibility of five global reanalysis data for Typhoon Vera were compered. Comparison shows that reanalysis data doesn't have strong typhoon information except for JRA-55, so that downscaling with conventional reanalysis data goes wrong. The dynamical downscaling method for storm surge is studied very much (e.g. choice of physical model, nudging, 4D-VAR, bogus and so on). In this study, domain size and resolution of the coarse domain were considered. The coarse domain size influences the typhoon route and central pressure, and larger domain restrains the typhoon strength. The results of simulations with different domain size show that the threshold of developing restrain is whether the coarse domain fully includes the area of wind speed more than 15 m/s around the typhoon. The results of simulations with different resolution show that the resolution doesn't affect the typhoon route, and higher resolution gives stronger typhoon simulation.

  9. The combined risk of extreme tropical cyclone winds and storm surges along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, J. C.; Yuan, J.; Jagger, T. H.

    2017-03-01

    Tropical cyclones, with their nearshore high wind speeds and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting offshore economic activities. The combined risk of occurrence of tropical cyclone nearshore wind speeds and storm surges is assessed at 22 coastal cities throughout the United States Gulf of Mexico. The models used are extreme value copulas fitted with margins defined by the generalized Pareto distribution or combinations of Weibull, gamma, lognormal, or normal distributions. The statistical relationships between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge are provided for each coastal city prior to the copula model runs using Spearman's rank correlations. The strongest significant relationship between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge exists at Shell Beach, LA (ρ = 0.67), followed by South Padre Island, TX (ρ = 0.64). The extreme value Archimedean copula models for each city then provide return periods for specific nearshore wind speed and storm surge pairs. Of the 22 cities considered, Bay St. Louis, MS, has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 ms-1 nearshore wind speed and a 3 m surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). The 90% confidence intervals are created by recalculating the return periods for a fixed set of wind speeds and surge levels using 100 samples of the model parameters. The results of this study can be utilized by policy managers and government officials concerned with coastal populations and economic activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

  10. Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-01-15

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables the interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations and estimates of the sea surface height and other model variables that are used for storm surge prediction. Coastal inundation, caused by hurricanes and tropical storms, poses large risks for today\\'s societies. High-fidelity numerical models of water levels driven by hurricane-force winds are required to predict these events, posing a challenging computational problem, and even though computational models continue to improve, uncertainties in storm surge forecasts are inevitable. Today, this uncertainty is often exposed to the user by running the simulation many times with different parameters or inputs following a Monte-Carlo framework in which uncertainties are represented as stochastic quantities. This results in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. While the resulting datasets are very comprehensive, they are also huge in size and thus hard to visualize and interpret. In this paper, we tackle this problem by means of an interactive and integrated visual analysis system. By harnessing the power of modern graphics processing units for visualization as well as computation, our system allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial and temporal regions without delay. In addition, our system provides advanced visualizations to highlight the uncertainty or show the complete distribution of the simulations at user-defined positions over the complete time series of the prediction. We highlight the benefits of our system by presenting its application in a real-world scenario using a simulation of Hurricane Ike.

  11. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  12. Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2014-01-01

    Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges.

  13. A Storm Surge and Inundation Model of the Back River Watershed at NASA Langley Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftis, Jon Derek; Wang, Harry V.; DeYoung, Russell J.

    2013-01-01

    This report on a Virginia Institute for Marine Science project demonstrates that the sub-grid modeling technology (now as part of Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System, CIPS) can incorporate high-resolution Lidar measurements provided by NASA Langley Research Center into the sub-grid model framework to resolve detailed topographic features for use as a hydrological transport model for run-off simulations within NASA Langley and Langley Air Force Base. The rainfall over land accumulates in the ditches/channels resolved via the model sub-grid was tested to simulate the run-off induced by heavy precipitation. Possessing both the capabilities for storm surge and run-off simulations, the CIPS model was then applied to simulate real storm events starting with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will be shown that the model can generate highly accurate on-land inundation maps as demonstrated by excellent comparison of the Langley tidal gauge time series data (CAPABLE.larc.nasa.gov) and spatial patterns of real storm wrack line measurements with the model results simulated during Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and a 2009 Nor'easter. With confidence built upon the model's performance, sea level rise scenarios from the ICCP (International Climate Change Partnership) were also included in the model scenario runs to simulate future inundation cases.

  14. Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

  15. Joint projections of sea level and storm surge using a flood index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, C. M.; Lin, N.; Horton, R. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-02-01

    Capturing the joint influence of sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclones (TCs) on future coastal flood risk poses significant challenges. To address these difficulties, Little et al. (2015) use a proxy of tropical cyclone activity and a probabilistic flood index that aggregates flood height and duration over a wide area (the US East and Gulf coasts). This technique illuminates the individual impacts of TCs and SLR and their correlation across different coupled climate models. By 2080-2099, changes in the flood index relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range of 35-350x higher for a high-end business-as-usual emissions scenario (see figure). This aggregated flood index: 1) is a means to consistently combine TC-driven storm surges and SLR; 2) provides a more robust description of historical surge-climate relationships than is available at any one location; and 3) allows the incorporation of a larger climate model ensemble - which is critical to uncertainty characterization. It does not provide a local view of the complete spectrum of flood severity (i.e. return curves). However, alternate techniques that provide localized return curves (e.g. Lin et al., 2012) are computationally intensive, limiting the set of large-scale climate models that can be incorporated, and require several linked statistical and dynamical models, each with structural uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. Here, we present the results of Little et al. (2015) along with: 1) alternate formulations of the flood index; 2) strategies to localize the flood index; and 3) a comparison of flood index projections to those provided by model-based return curves. We look to this interdisciplinary audience for feedback on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool for coastal planning and decision-making. Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature

  16. The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

    2016-02-01

    An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

  17. Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.; Bakker, M.A.J.; Van Dongeren, A.; Den Heijer, C.; Van Heteren, S.; Smit, M.W.J.; Van Koningsveld, M.; Pool, A.

    2011-01-01

    For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed.

  18. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model : Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-01-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it

  19. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  20. Monitoring and simulation of salinity changes in response to tide and storm surges in a sandy coastal aquifer system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, S.; Karaoulis, M.C.; Oude Essink, G.H.P.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    Tidal dynamics and especially storm surges can have an extensive impact on coastal fresh groundwater resources. Combined with the prospect of sea-level rise and the reliance of many people on these resources, this demonstrates the need to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas to these threats.

  1. Study of a Novel Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, Nathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Choiniere, Michael [University of Maine; Thiagarajan, Krish P. [University of Maine

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates the performance of an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) that utilizes adjustable geometry as a means of controlling the hydrodynamic coefficients, a concept originally proposed by [1]. The body of the device consists of a bottom-hinged solid rectangular frame with five horizontal flaps spanning the interior of the frame. The flaps can rotate independently about their center of rotation within the frame like a large window shutter. Changing the orientation of the flaps alters the hydrodynamic coefficients and natural frequency of the device as well as the ability to shed or absorb structural loads accordingly. This ability may allow the device to operate in a wider range of sea states than other current wave energy converter designs. This paper presents and compares the results of numerical simulations and experimental testing of the OSWEC's response to regular waves with all five of the horizontal fin configurations sharing the same orientation of 0 degrees (fully closed interior) and 90 degrees (fully open). The numerical simulations were performed using WAMIT, which calculates hydrodynamic coefficients using a boundary element method code to solve the linear potential flow problem, and WEC-Sim, a MATLAB-based tool that simulates multibody devices in the time domain by solving the governing equations of motion. A 1:14 scale model of the device was built for experimental evaluation in an 8-m-long, 1-m wide wave tank, which supports a water depth of 0.7 m. The OSWEC motion in different wave conditions was measured with displacement sensors while nonlinear wave-structure interaction effects like slamming and overtopping were captured using a high-speed camera and used to understand differences between the simulation and experiments.

  2. Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Inundation and Velocity Hazard Mapping of the State of Andhra Pradesh (India) using ADCIRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brackins, J. T.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal region, including parts of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, is the largest bay in the world and is structured in such a manner as to produce the world's largest tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges (SS), with approximately five surge events greater than 5 meters in magnitude each decade. (Needham et al. 2015). Although some studies have been performed to attempt to capture the magnitude and location of historical surges (Shaji et al. 2014) and to model surges in the immediate sense, there is a notable lack of application to the effects on coastal infrastructure in these areas. Given that these areas are some of the most densely populated and least economically able to prepare and recover, it is important to consider the potential effects of storm surge to discover areas where improvements can be made with the limited resources available to these areas. To this end, an ADvanced-CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model (Luettich and Westerink 2004) was created for the Bay of Bengal, using the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO 2014) as bathymetric and topographic data, and a combination of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) records for storm tracks. For the state of Andhra Pradesh, several major TC events ranging from 1977 to 2014 were selected to be modeled with the goal of creating hazard maps of storm surge inundation and velocity for the state. These hazard maps would be used to identify high-vulnerability areas with the goal of implementing land-use planning and coastal development practices that will aid in ameliorating both the loss of life and economic damages sustained as a result of these TCs.

  3. Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, Hiroshi; Wu, Wenjie

    2016-03-01

    Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estimation methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage of strong typhoons, together with the JMA typhoon best track data for 1990-2013, enabled us to derive the following simple equation, Rmax = 0.23 R50. Application to a recent strong typhoon, the 2015 Typhoon Goni, confirms that the equation provides a good estimation of Rmax, particularly when the central pressure became considerably low. Although this new method substantially improves the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, estimation errors are unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation for the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan as well as 2015 Typhoon Goni demonstrates a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations (e.g., Rmax = 0.15 R50-0.35 R50), independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over- or underestimating storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the predictability of major storm surges and to contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

  4. Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatzikyriakou, Adam; Lin, Ning

    2017-01-01

    Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience. - Highlights: • Interaction between residential structures leads to performance interdependencies. • Interdependencies during storm surge are due to debris and structural shielding. • Markov model treats interdependencies as an additional demand parameter. • Marginal model incorporates damage correlation into regression estimation. • System behavior should be considered in community risk and resilience.

  5. Hindcasting of storm waves using neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, S.; Mandal, S.

    Department NN neural network net i weighted sum of the inputs of neuron i o k network output at kth output node P total number of training pattern s i output of neuron i t k target output at kth output node 1. Introduction Severe storms occur in Bay of Bengal...), forecasting of runoff (Crespo and Mora, 1993), concrete strength (Kasperkiewicz et al., 1995). The uses of neural network in the coastal the wave conditions will change from year to year, thus a proper statistical and climatological treatment requires several...

  6. Storm wave deposits in southern Istria (Croatia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biolchi, Sara; Furlani, Stefano; Devoto, Stefano; Scicchitano, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The accumulation of large boulders related to extreme waves are well documented in different areas of the Mediterranean coasts, such as in Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, Greece (Lesbos and Crete islands), France, Spain, Malta, Italy (Sicily and Apulia regions). These deposits have been associated to storm or tsunami events or both, depending on the local history. If compared to the Mediterranean Sea, the Adriatic Sea is considered a shallow basin, with very low wave energy. In particular the NE Adriatic, where Istria Peninsula (Croatia) is located, geological and geomorphological evidences of extreme wave events have never been described, as well as no tsunamis have been registered. We present the boulder deposits that have been recently found out in southern Istria, at Premantura and Marlera localities and we discuss the mechanisms that could have been responsible of the detachment and movement of these large rocky blocks from the emerged part of the coast and from the sea bottom inland. A multidisciplinary approach was adopted: geological and geomorphological surveyings, UAV and digital photogrammetric analysis, applying of the hydrodynamic equations as well as underwater profiles were carried out between 2012 and 2016. The southern Istrian coasts are composed of Cretaceous bedded limestones, sub-horizontal or gently inclined toward the sea and are exposed to southern winds, Scirocco and Libeccio, with wide fetch. The boulder deposits occur in correspondence of flat promontories or ancient quarry pavements, where the topography, together with the bedding planes and a dense fracture pattern constitute the predisposing factors of the boulder sizing and detachment. Boulder sizes, density, position and elevation have been measured in order to apply the hydrodynamic equations, which provide wave height values that can discriminate a storm from a tsunami origin. Biogenic marine encrustations, sometimes very recent, have been observed on large part of the boulders, attesting

  7. Monitoring duration and extent of storm-surge and flooding in Western Coastal Louisiana marshes with Envisat ASAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, E.; Lu, Z.; Suzuoki, Y.; Rangoonwala, A.; Werle, D.

    2011-01-01

    Inundation maps of coastal marshes in western Louisiana were created with multitemporal Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture (ASAR) scenes collected before and during the three months after Hurricane Rita landfall in September 2005. Corroborated by inland water-levels, 7 days after landfall, 48% of coastal estuarine and palustrine marshes remained inundated by storm-surge waters. Forty-five days after landfall, storm-surge inundated 20% of those marshes. The end of the storm-surge flooding was marked by an abrupt decrease in water levels following the passage of a storm front and persistent offshore winds. A complementary dramatic decrease in flood extent was confirmed by an ASAR-derived inundation map. In nonimpounded marshes at elevations ;80 cm during the first month after Rita landfall. After this initial period, drainage from marshes-especially impounded marshes-was hastened by the onset of offshore winds. Following the abrupt drops in inland water levels and flood extent, rainfall events coinciding with increased water levels were recorded as inundation re-expansion. This postsurge flooding decreased until only isolated impounded and palustrine marshes remained inundated. Changing flood extents were correlated to inland water levels and largely occurred within the same marsh regions. Trends related to incremental threshold increases used in the ASAR change-detection analyses seemed related to the preceding hydraulic and hydrologic events, and VV and HH threshold differences supported their relationship to the overall wetland hydraulic condition.

  8. A tale of two storms: Surges and sediment deposition from Hurricanes Andrew and Wilma in Florida’s southwest coast mangrove forests: Chapter 6G in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Thomas J.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Tiling, Ginger

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes can be very different from each other. Here we examine the impacts that two hurricanes, Andrew and Wilma, had in terms of storm surge and sediment deposition on the southwest coast of Florida. Although Wilma was the weaker storm, it had the greater impact. Wilma had the higher storm surge over a larger area and deposited more sediment than did Andrew. This effect was most likely due to the size of Wilma's eye, which was four times larger than that of Andrew.

  9. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  10. Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Swanson, Kathleen; Takekawa, John Y.

    2013-01-01

    Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems, which are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate if regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of the tidal marshes and how that will impact the hydro-geomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities.

  11. Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation and storm surge experiments of tropical cyclone Nargis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Duc

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Data assimilation experiments on Myanmar tropical cyclone (TC, Nargis, using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF method and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM were performed to examine the impact of LETKF on analysis performance in real cases. Although the LETKF control experiment using NHM as its driving model (NHM–LETKF produced a weak vortex, the subsequent 3-day forecast predicted Nargis’ track and intensity better than downscaling from JMA's global analysis. Some strategies to further improve the final analysis were considered. They were sea surface temperature (SST perturbations and assimilation of TC advisories. To address SST uncertainty, SST analyses issued by operational forecast centres were used in the assimilation window. The use of a fixed source of SST analysis for each ensemble member was more effective in practice. SST perturbations were found to have slightly positive impact on the track forecasts. Assimilation of TC advisories could have a positive impact with a reasonable choice of its free parameters. However, the TC track forecasts exhibited northward displacements, when the observation error of intensities was underestimated in assimilation of TC advisories. The use of assimilation of TC advisories was considered in the final NHM–LETKF by choosing an appropriate set of free parameters. The extended forecast based on the final analysis provided meteorological forcings for a storm surge simulation using the Princeton Ocean Model. Probabilistic forecasts of the water levels at Irrawaddy and Yangon significantly improved the results in the previous studies.

  12. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caskie, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers

  13. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  14. Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, Mansur Ali; Bao, Shaowu; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    2018-01-01

    The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000-1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the

  15. Reference Model 5 (RM5): Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Y. H. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jenne, D. S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Thresher, R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Copping, A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Geerlofs, S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hanna, L. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This report is an addendum to SAND2013-9040: Methodology for Design and Economic Analysis of Marine Energy Conversion (MEC) Technologies. This report describes an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter (OSWEC) reference model design in a complementary manner to Reference Models 1-4 contained in the above report. A conceptual design for a taut moored oscillating surge wave energy converter was developed. The design had an annual electrical power of 108 kilowatts (kW), rated power of 360 kW, and intended deployment at water depths between 50 m and 100 m. The study includes structural analysis, power output estimation, a hydraulic power conversion chain system, and mooring designs. The results were used to estimate device capital cost and annual operation and maintenance costs. The device performance and costs were used for the economic analysis, following the methodology presented in SAND2013-9040 that included costs for designing, manufacturing, deploying, and operating commercial-scale MEC arrays up to 100 devices. The levelized cost of energy estimated for the Reference Model 5 OSWEC, presented in this report, was for a single device and arrays of 10, 50, and 100 units, and it enabled the economic analysis to account for cost reductions associated with economies of scale. The baseline commercial levelized cost of energy estimate for the Reference Model 5 device in an array comprised of 10 units is $1.44/kilowatt-hour (kWh), and the value drops to approximately $0.69/kWh for an array of 100 units.

  16. Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...tive comments on the manuscript. Permission was granted by the Chief, USACE, to publish this information. LITERATURE CITED Blanton, B.; Stillwell, L...Geospatial Center. http://www.agc.army.mil/ (accessed February 29, 2012). Vickery, P.; Wadhera, D.; Cox, A.; Cardone , V.; Hanson, J., and Blanton, B

  17. Sea level during storm surges as seen in tide-gauge records along the east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sundar, D.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    and crossed the north Orissa coast later that day; it weakened and moved westward subsequent to landfall. Sea-level variations due to surges triggered by storm winds form a noise superimposed on the highly periodic tides, which have astronomical origins.... In the next section we describe the analysis used to 1326 CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 77, NO. 10, 25 NOVEMBER 1999 COMPUTATIONAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE Figure 1b. Astronomical tide and dehyphenminustided sea level during Event 1. The dark blue vertical lines...

  18. Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

  19. Extreme storm surges in the south of Brazil: atmospheric conditions and shore erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Klose Parise

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The region under study is regularly subject to the occurrence of storms associated with frontal systems and extratropical cyclones, since it is located near one of the cyclogenetic regions in South America. These storms can generate storm surges that cause anomalous high sea level rises on Cassino Beach. The use of reanalysis data along with an efficient technique for the location of the cyclone, using a vorticity threshold, has provided a new classification based upon the trajectories of events that produce positive sea level variation. Three patterns have been identified: 1 Cyclogenesis to the south of Argentina with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 47.5ºS and 57.5ºS; 2 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 35ºS and 42.5ºS; and 3 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the southeast and a trajectory between 35ºS and 57.5ºS. Maximum water level elevation above the mean sea level and beach erosion were associated, respectively, with winter and summer storms. Cassino beach displayed a seasonal morphological behavior, with short periods of episodic erosion associated with winter storm events followed by long periods of accretion characterized by the dominance of fair weather conditions.Marés meteorológicas que geram sobre-elevações do nível do mar são freqüentes na costa do Rio Grande do Sul e respondem às variações ocorridas na atmosfera. Torna-se importante, dessa maneira, definir padrões meteorológicos sinóticos responsáveis por gerar eventos de marés meteorológicas intensas na Praia do Cassino como objetivo desse trabalho. O uso de dados de reanálise associados a uma técnica eficiente de localização do ciclone, aplicando o conceito de vorticidade, permitiu definir uma nova classificação com base na trajetória de ciclones extratropicais responsáveis pela subida do nível do mar. Três padrões de trajetórias foram

  20. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  1. Analytical and computational modelling for wave energy systems: the example of oscillating wave surge converters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Frédéric; Renzi, Emiliano; Gallagher, Sarah; Sarkar, Dripta; Wei, Yanji; Abadie, Thomas; Cummins, Cathal; Rafiee, Ashkan

    2017-08-01

    The development of new wave energy converters has shed light on a number of unanswered questions in fluid mechanics, but has also identified a number of new issues of importance for their future deployment. The main concerns relevant to the practical use of wave energy converters are sustainability, survivability, and maintainability. Of course, it is also necessary to maximize the capture per unit area of the structure as well as to minimize the cost. In this review, we consider some of the questions related to the topics of sustainability, survivability, and maintenance access, with respect to sea conditions, for generic wave energy converters with an emphasis on the oscillating wave surge converter. New analytical models that have been developed are a topic of particular discussion. It is also shown how existing numerical models have been pushed to their limits to provide answers to open questions relating to the operation and characteristics of wave energy converters.

  2. Analytical and computational modelling for wave energy systems: the example of oscillating wave surge converters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Frédéric; Renzi, Emiliano; Gallagher, Sarah; Sarkar, Dripta; Wei, Yanji; Abadie, Thomas; Cummins, Cathal; Rafiee, Ashkan

    2017-01-01

    The development of new wave energy converters has shed light on a number of unanswered questions in fluid mechanics, but has also identified a number of new issues of importance for their future deployment. The main concerns relevant to the practical use of wave energy converters are sustainability, survivability, and maintainability. Of course, it is also necessary to maximize the capture per unit area of the structure as well as to minimize the cost. In this review, we consider some of the questions related to the topics of sustainability, survivability, and maintenance access, with respect to sea conditions, for generic wave energy converters with an emphasis on the oscillating wave surge converter. New analytical models that have been developed are a topic of particular discussion. It is also shown how existing numerical models have been pushed to their limits to provide answers to open questions relating to the operation and characteristics of wave energy converters.

  3. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2005-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  4. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L

    2004-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  5. Real-Time Forecasting System of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graber, Hans C; Donelan, Mark A; Brown, Michael G; Slinn, Donald N; Hagen, Scott C; Thompson, Donald R; Jensen, Robert E; Black, Peter G; Powell, Mark D; Guiney, John L; Cardone, Vincent J; Cox, Andrew T; Augustus, Ellsworth H; Colonnese, Christopher P

    2003-01-01

    The long-term goal of this partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones...

  6. Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional

  7. Effects of storm waves on rapid deposition of sediment in the Yangtze Estuary channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Fumin

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent research on short-term topographic change in the Yangtze Estuary channel under storm surge conditions is briefly summarized. The mild-slope, Boussinesq and action balance equations are compared and analyzed. The action balance equation, SWAN, was used as a wave numerical model to forecast strong storm waves in the Yangtze Estuary. The spherical coordinate system and source terms used in the equation are described in this paper. The significant wave height and the wave orbital motion velocity near the bottom of the channel during 20 m/s winds in the EES direction were simulated, and the model was calibrated with observation data of winds and waves generated by Tropical Cyclone 9912. The distribution of critical velocity for incipient motion along the bottom was computed according to the threshold velocity formula for bottom sediment. The mechanism of rapid deposition is analyzed based on the difference between the root-mean-square value of the near-bottom wave orbital motion velocity and the bottom critical tractive velocity. The results show that a large amount of bottom sediments from Hengsha Shoal and Jiuduan Shoal are lifted into the water body when 20 m/s wind is blowing in the EES direction. Some of the sediments may enter the channel with the cross-channel current, causing serious rapid deposition. Finally, the tendency of the storm to induce rapid deposition in the Yangtze Estuary channel zone is analyzed.

  8. Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions: Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rego, JoãO. L.; Li, Chunyan

    2010-06-01

    This study applied the finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) to the storm surge induced by Hurricane Rita along the Louisiana-Texas coast. The model was calibrated for tides and validated with observed water levels. Peak water levels were shown to be lower than expected for a landfall at high tide. For low- and high-tide landfalls, nonlinear effects due to tide-surge coupling were constructive and destructive to total storm tide, respectively, and their magnitude reached up to 70% of the tidal amplitude in the Rita application. Tide-surge interaction was further examined using a standard hurricane under idealized scenarios to evaluate the effects of various shelf geometries, tides, and landfall timings (relative to tide). Nonlinearity was important between landfall position and locations within 2.5 × radius of maximum winds. On an idealized wide continental shelf, nonlinear effects reached up to 80% of the tidal amplitude with an S2 tide and up to 47% with a K1 tide. Increasing average depths by 4 m reduced nonlinear effects to 41% of the tidal amplitude; increasing the slope by a factor of 3 produced nonlinearities of just 26% of tide (both with a K1 tide). The nonlinear effect was greatest for landfalls at low tide, followed by landfalls at high tide and then by landfalls at midebb or midflood.

  9. Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Baart

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

  10. A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila

    2016-11-01

    by performing assimilation experiments with the highly nonlinear Lorenz model and a realistic setting of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model configured for storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Ike.

  11. MAGNETIC-RECONNECTION GENERATED SHOCK WAVES AS A DRIVER OF SOLAR SURGES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Heesu; Chae, Jongchul; Park, Hyungmin; Song, Dong-uk; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Lim, Eun-Kyung; Lee, Kyoung-sun

    2014-01-01

    We found that a surge consists of multiple shock features. In our high-spatiotemporal spectroscopic observation of the surge, each shock is identified with the sudden appearance of an absorption feature at the blue wings of the Ca II 8542 Å line and Hα line that gradually shifts to the red wings. The shock features overlap with one another with the time interval of 110 s, which is much shorter than the duration of each shock feature, 300-400 s. This finding suggests that the multiple shocks might not have originated from a train of sinusoidal waves generated by oscillations and flows in the photosphere. As we found the signature of the magnetic flux cancelations at the base of the surge, we conclude that the multiple shock waves in charge of the surge were generated by the magnetic reconnection that occurred in the low atmosphere in association with the flux cancelation

  12. Observations and predictions of wave runup, extreme water levels, and medium-term dune erosion during storm conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Suanez , Serge ,; Cancouët , Romain; Floc'h , France; Blaise , Emmanuel; Ardhuin , Fabrice; Filipot , Jean-François; Cariolet , Jean-Marie; Delacourt , Christophe

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France) over the past decade (2004–2014) has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of (i) astronomic tide; (ii) storm surge; and (iii) vertical wave runup. Runup parameterization was conducted using swash limits, beach profiles, and hydrodynamic (Hm0, Tm0,–1, and high tide wa...

  13. Optimal Control of a Surge-Mode WEC in Random Waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertok, Allan [Resolute Marine Energy, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Ceberio, Olivier [Resolute Marine Energy, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Staby, Bill [Resolute Marine Energy, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Previsic, Mirko [Re Vision Consulting, Sacramento, CA (United States); Scruggs, Jeffrey [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Van de Ven, James [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2016-08-30

    The objective of this project was to develop one or more real-time feedback and feed-forward (MPC) control algorithms for an Oscillating Surge Wave Converter (OSWC) developed by RME called SurgeWEC™ that leverages recent innovations in wave energy converter (WEC) control theory to maximize power production in random wave environments. The control algorithms synthesized innovations in dynamic programming and nonlinear wave dynamics using anticipatory wave sensors and localized sensor measurements; e.g. position and velocity of the WEC Power Take Off (PTO), with predictive wave forecasting data. The result was an advanced control system that uses feedback or feed-forward data from an array of sensor channels comprised of both localized and deployed sensors fused into a single decision process that optimally compensates for uncertainties in the system dynamics, wave forecasts, and sensor measurement errors.

  14. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-08-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

  15. Sele coastal plain flood risk due to wave storm and river flow interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Aucelli, Pietro; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Della Morte, Renata; Cozzolino, Luca; Rizzo, Angela

    2016-04-01

    Wind waves, elevated water levels and river discharge can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level is the interaction between wave storm elevated water levels and river flow interaction. The factors driving the potential flood risk include weather conditions, river water stage and storm surge. These data are required to obtain inputs to run the hydrological model used to evaluate the water surface level during ordinary and extreme events regarding both the fluvial overflow and storm surge at the river mouth. In this paper we studied the interaction between the sea level variation and the river hydraulics in order to assess the location of the river floods in the Sele coastal plain. The wave data were acquired from the wave buoy of Ponza, while the water level data needed to assess the sea level variation were recorded by the tide gauge of Salerno. The water stages, river discharges and rating curves for Sele river were provided by Italian Hydrographic Service (Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale, SIMN).We used the dataset of Albanella station (40°29'34.30"N, 15°00'44.30"E), located around 7 km from the river mouth. The extreme river discharges were evaluated through the Weibull equation, which were associated with their return period (TR). The steady state river water levels were evaluated through HEC-RAS 4.0 model, developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the United States Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (USACE,2006). It is a well-known 1D model that computes water surface elevation (WSE) and velocity at discrete cross-sections by solving continuity, energy and flow resistance (e.g., Manning) equation. Data requirements for HEC-RAS include topographic information in the form of a series of cross-sections, friction parameter in the form of Manning's n values across each cross-section, and flow data including flow rates, flow change locations, and boundary conditions. For a steady state sub

  16. Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

    2017-09-05

    Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Influence of a Storm Surge Barrier’s Operation on the Flood Frequency in the Rhine Delta Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Zhong

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area are supposed to be able to withstand these levels. Equal Level Curves approach is used to calculate the Rotterdam water levels by using Rhine discharges and sea water levels as input. Their joint probability function generates the occurrence frequency of a certain combination that will lead to a certain high water level in Rotterdam. The results show that the flood frequency in Rotterdam is reduced effectively with the controlled barrier in current and in future scenarios influenced by climate change. In addition, an investigation of the sensitivity of the operational parameters suggests that there is a negligible influence on the high water level frequency when the decision closing water level for the barrier is set higher due to the benefits of navigation (but not exceeding the design safety level 4 m MSL.

  18. Life defence against big storm surges. Cyclone shelter in Bangladesh; Kyodai takashio kara seimei wo mamoru. Bangladesh no cyclone shelter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakagawa, H. [Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan). Disaster Prevention Research Inst.

    1996-08-15

    This paper presents the cyclone shelters in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been damaged by flooding due to big storm surges caused by cyclone every year, losing many human lives and properties. The sea within 100km apart from the coast is gradually shoaling beach shallower than 10m because of sediment transport by the Ganges. Consequently, huge storm surges are easily caused by cyclone generated in Bay of Bengal. The cyclone shelter is only one refuge from cyclone. Construction of the cyclone shelters was opened in the 1960s, and the public work department (PWD) in the government had constructed the cyclone shelters under support by International Development Association (IDA) since 1970. At the same time, BDRCS had constructed the shelters under support by Red Cross Societies of every country, and positive NGOs such as Caritas had been also in the same action. Because many cyclone shelters became too old for use, construction of new cyclone shelters was opened again just after disaster in 1991. 2 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Coastal wave measurements during passage of tropical storm Amy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, W. D.

    1977-01-01

    Aerial photographic and laser profilometer data of waves generated by tropical storm Amy are presented. The data mission consisted primarily of two legs, one in the direction of the wind waves, and the second along the direction of swell propagation, using Jennette's Pier at Nags Head, North Carolina, as a focal point. At flight time, Amy's center was 512 nmi from shore and had maximum winds of 60 knots. The storm's history is presented, along with a satellite photograph, showing the extent of the storm on the day of the flight. Flight ground tracks are presented along with sample aerial photographs of the wave conditions showing approximate wavelength and direction. Sample wave energy spectra are presented both from the laser profilometer onboard the aircraft, and from the Corps of Engineers Research Center (CERC) shore gauge at Nags Head, North Carolina.

  20. Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Babu, M.T.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.

    on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon...

  1. Cost-efficient and storm surge-sensitive bridge design for coastal Maine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Climatic variation felt through changing weather patterns is having increasingly acute effects on Maines : transportation infrastructure. Acute risk occurs as a result of events, such as storms and flooding, while chronic risk : surrounds longer r...

  2. Coupling atmospheric and ocean wave models for storm simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting

    the atmosphere must, by conservation, result in the generation of the surface waves and currents. The physics-based methods are sensitive to the choice of wind-input source function (Sin), parameterization of high-frequency wave spectra tail, and numerical cut-off frequencies. Unfortunately, literature survey......This thesis studies the wind-wave interactions through the coupling between the atmospheric model and ocean surface wave models. Special attention is put on storm simulations in the North Sea for wind energy applications in the coastal zones. The two aspects, namely storm conditions and coastal...... shows that in most wind-wave coupling systems, either the Sin in the wave model is different from the one used for the momentum flux estimation in the atmospheric model, or the methods are too sensitive to the parameterization of high-frequency spectra tail and numerical cut-off frequencies. To confront...

  3. What caused the rise of water level in the battle of Luermen bay in 1661? Tsunami, Storm surge, or Tide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tso-Ren; Wu, Han; Tsai, Yu-Lin

    2016-04-01

    In 1661, Chinese navy led by General Zheng Chenggong at the end of Ming Dynasty had a naval battle against Netherlands. This battle was not only the first official sea warfare that China confronted the Western world, but also the only naval battle won by Chinese Navy so far. This event was important because it changed the fate of Taiwan until today. One of the critical points that General Zheng won the battle was entering Luermen bay unexpected. Luermen bay was and is an extreme shallow bay with a 2.1m maximum water depth during the high tide, which was not possible for a fleet of 20,000 marines to across. Therefore, no defense was deployed from the Netherlands side. However, plenty of historical literatures mentioned a strange phenomenon that helped Chinese warships entered the Luermen bay, the rise of water level. In this study, we will discuss the possible causes that might rise the water level, e.g. Tsunami, storm surge, and high tide. We analyzed it based on the knowledge of hydrodynamics. We performed the newly developed Impact Intensify Analysis (IIA) for finding the potential tsunami sources, and the COMCOT tsunami model was adopted for the nonlinear scenario simulations, associated with the high resolution bathymetry data. Both earthquake and mudslide tsunamis were inspected. Other than that, we also collected the information of tide and weather for identifying the effects form high tide and storm surge. After the thorough study, a scenario that satisfy most of the descriptions in the historical literatures will be presented. The results will explain the cause of mysterious event that changed the destiny of Taiwan.

  4. Strengthening the resiliency of the coastal transportation system through integrated simulation of storm surge, inundation, and non-recurrent congestion in Northeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    In this study, the MTEVA (Developed as part of CMS #2009-010) has been advanced to apply storm surge and evacuation models to the greater Jacksonville area of Northeast Florida. Heuristic and time dynamic algorithms have been enhanced to work with th...

  5. Extreme coastal erosion enhanced by anomalous extratropical storm wave direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, Mitchell D; Turner, Ian L; Kinsela, Michael A; Middleton, Jason H; Mumford, Peter J; Splinter, Kristen D; Phillips, Matthew S; Simmons, Joshua A; Hanslow, David J; Short, Andrew D

    2017-07-20

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of large-scale episodic beach erosion along coastlines in temperate regions. However, key drivers of the magnitude and regional variability in rapid morphological changes caused by ETCs at the coast remain poorly understood. Here we analyze an unprecedented dataset of high-resolution regional-scale morphological response to an ETC that impacted southeast Australia, and evaluate the new observations within the context of an existing long-term coastal monitoring program. This ETC was characterized by moderate intensity (for this regional setting) deepwater wave heights, but an anomalous wave direction approximately 45 degrees more counter-clockwise than average. The magnitude of measured beach volume change was the largest in four decades at the long-term monitoring site and, at the regional scale, commensurate with that observed due to extreme North Atlantic hurricanes. Spatial variability in morphological response across the study region was predominantly controlled by alongshore gradients in storm wave energy flux and local coastline alignment relative to storm wave direction. We attribute the severity of coastal erosion observed due to this ETC primarily to its anomalous wave direction, and call for greater research on the impacts of changing storm wave directionality in addition to projected future changes in wave heights.

  6. PCR and culture identification of pathogenic Leptospira spp. from coastal soil in Leyte, Philippines, after a storm surge during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Mitsumasa; Miyahara, Satoshi; Villanueva, Sharon Y A M; Aramaki, Natsumi; Ikejiri, Mami; Kobayashi, Yoshie; Guevarra, Jonathan P; Masuzawa, Toshiyuki; Gloriani, Nina G; Yanagihara, Yasutake; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2014-11-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira spp. Most of the outbreaks of leptospirosis occur after floods caused by heavy rain in countries where Leptospira spp. are endemic. It has been believed that the overflow of seawater rarely causes outbreaks of leptospirosis because the leptospires are killed by salt water. On 8 November 2013, a storm surge caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) inundated the entire coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo in Leyte, Philippines. The present study was carried out in order to determine whether the environmental leptospires in soil were able to survive after the storm surge in the affected areas. We collected 23 wet soil samples along the coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo 2 months after the storm surge. The samples were suspended in HEPES buffer, and the supernatants were cultured in liquid or semisolid Korthof's medium supplemented with five antimicrobial agents to inhibit the growth of contaminants. Leptospires were isolated from primary cultures of 22 out of 23 samples. The DNA of pathogenic Leptospira species was detected in 11 samples (47.8%) by analysis of flaB by nested PCR. Eventually, two pathogenic Leptospira strains were isolated and showed the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity to Leptospira kmetyi. When these isolates were experimentally mixed with soil, they were found to survive in seawater for 4 days. These results show the possibility that leptospires living in soil survived after the storm surge. Our findings may serve as a warning that when seawater inundates the land during a storm surge or a tsunami, an outbreak of leptospirosis could occur in the disaster-stricken area. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  7. Modeling storm waves; Modeliser les houles de tempete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch

    1999-07-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  8. Lake St. Clair: Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    R. A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V. J. Cardone , A. T. Cox, M. D. Powell, H. J. Westerink, and H. J. Roberts. 2010. A high resolution coupled riverine flow...Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Tyler J. Hesser

  9. The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

  10. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  11. Modeling the Effects of Storm Surge from Hurricane Jeanne on Saltwater Intrusion into the Surficial Aquifer, East-Central Florida (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Saltwater intrusion (SWI) that has been widely recognized as a detrimental issue causing the deterioration of coastal aquifer water quality and degradation of coastal ecosystems. While it is widely recognized that SWI is exacerbated worldwide due to global sea-level rise, we show that increased SWI from tropical cyclones under climate change is also a concern. In the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) located in east-central Florida, the salinity level of the surficial aquifer is of great importance to maintain a bio-diverse ecosystem and to support the survival of various vegetation species. Climate change induced SWI into the surficial aquifer can lead to reduction of freshwater storage and alteration of the distribution and productivity of vegetation communities. In this study, a three-dimensional variable-density SEAWAT model is developed and calibrated to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of salinity level in the surficial aquifer of CCBIC. We link the SEAWAT model to surge model data to examine the effects of storm surge from Hurricane Jeanne. Simulation results indicate that the surficial aquifer salinity level increases significantly right after the occurrence of storm surge because of high aquifer permeability and rapid infiltration and diffusion of the overtopping saltwater, while the surficial aquifer salinity level begins to decrease after the fresh groundwater recharge from the storm's rainfall. The tropical storm precipitation generates an effective hydraulic barrier further impeding SWI and providing seaward freshwater discharge for saltwater dilution and flushing. To counteract the catastrophic effects of storm surge, this natural remediation process may take at least 15-20 years or even several decades. These simulation results contribute to ongoing research focusing on forecasting regional vegetation community responses to climate change, and are expected to provide a useful reference for climate change adaptation planning

  12. Numerical Analysis of Storm Surge and Seiche at Tokyo Bay caused by the 2 Similar Typhoons, Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamoto, T.; Takagawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A long period damped oscillation, or seiche, sometimes happens inside a harbor after passing typhoon. For some cases, a maximum sea level is observed due to the superposition of astronomical tide and seiche rather than a peak of storm surge. Hence to clarify seiche factors for reducing disaster potential is important, a long-period seiche with a fundamental period of 5.46 hours in Tokyo Bay (Konishi, 2008) was investigated through numerical simulations and analyses. We examined the case of Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014 (Hereafter Case P and V). The intensity and moving velocity were similar and the best-tracks were an arc-shaped, typical one approaching to Tokyo Bay. The track of Case V was about 1.5 degree higher latitude than that of Case P, only Typhoon Phanphon caused significant seiche.Firstly, numerical simulations for the 2 storm surges at Tokyo Bay were conducted by Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Meso-Scale Model Grid Point Values (MSM-GPV). MSM-GPV gave the 10m wind speed and Sea Level Pressure (SLP), especially the Mean Error (ME) and Root Mean Squire Error (RMSE) of SLP were low compared to the 12 JMA observation points data (Case P: ME -0.303hPa, RMSE 1.87hPa, Case V: ME -0.285hPa, RMSE 0.74hPa). The computational results showed that the maximum of storm surge was underestimated but the difference was less than 20cm at 5 observation points in Tokyo Bay(Fig.1, 2).Then, power spectrals, coherences and phase differences of storm surges at the 5 observation points were obtained by spectral analysis of observed and simulated waveforms. For Case P, the phase-difference between the bay mouth and innermost part of Tokyo Bay was little, and coherence was almost 1(Fig.3, 4). However, for Case V, coherence was small around the fundamental period of 5.46 hours. Furthermore, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of storm surge, SLP and sea surface stress were conducted. The contributions of EOF1 were above 90% for the all variables, the

  13. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  14. Destruction of intertidal bar morphology during a summer storm surge event: Example of positive morphodynamic feedback

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masselink, Gerd; Aagaard, Troels; Kroon, Aart

    2011-01-01

    . The measurements demonstrated an example of positive morphodynamic feedback. Once the bar crest elevation started to decrease because of wave overtopping and sediment transport into the runnel on the rising tide, the bar crest lowered and overwash frequency increased, leading to enhanced crest erosion, even under...

  15. A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan C. Maloney

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

  16. Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

  17. 76 FR 74776 - Forum-Trends in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    ... Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms Along the Coasts AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite, Data...-extratropical-storms/home . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Brooke Stewart, National Climatic Data Center, 151.../noaa.gov/extreme-winds-waves-extratropical-storms/home . Topics To Be Addressed This forum will address...

  18. Design and Analysis for a Floating Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Y. H.; Li, Y.; Hallett, K.; Hotimsky, C.

    2014-03-01

    This paper presents a recent study on the design and analysis of an oscillating surge wave energy converter. A successful wave energy conversion design requires the balance between the design performance and cost. The cost of energy is often used as the metric to judge the design of the wave energy conversion system. It is often determined based on the device power performance, the cost for manufacturing, deployment, operation and maintenance, as well as the effort to ensure the environmental compliance. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the importance of a cost driven design strategy and how it can affect a WEC design. Three oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) designs were used as the example. The power generation performance of the design was modeled using a time-domain numerical simulation tool, and the mass properties of the design were determined based on a simple structure analysis. The results of those power performance simulations, the structure analysis and a simple economic assessment were then used to determine the cost-efficiency of selected OSWEC designs. Finally, a discussion on the environmental barrier, integrated design strategy and the key areas that need further investigation is also presented.

  19. Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yean Teh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  20. On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

    2012-01-01

    National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and

  1. Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jue Lin-Ye

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The characterization of future wave-storms and their relationship to large-scale climate can provide useful information for environmental or urban planning at coastal areas. A hybrid methodology (process-based and statistical was used to characterize the extreme wave-climate at the northwestern Black Sea. The Simulating WAve Nearshore spectral wave-model was employed to produce wave-climate projections, forced with wind-fields projections for two climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. A non-stationary multivariate statistical model was built, considering significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm, as well as storm total energy and storm-duration. The climate indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, and Scandinavian Pattern have been used as covariates to link to storminess, wave-storm threshold, and wave-storm components in the statistical model. The results show that, first, under both RCP scenarios, the mean values of significant wave-height and peak-wave-period at the peak of the wave-storm remain fairly constant over the 21st century. Second, the mean value of storm total energy is more markedly increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the RCP8.5 scenario. Third, the mean value of storm-duration is increasing in the RCP4.5 scenario, as opposed to the constant trend in the RCP8.5 scenario. The variance of each wave-storm component increases when the corresponding mean value increases under both RCP scenarios. During the 21st century, the East Atlantic Pattern and changes in its pattern have a special influence on wave-storm conditions. Apart from the individual characteristics of each wave-storm component, wave-storms with both extreme energy and duration can be expected in the 21st century. The dependence between all the wave-storm components is moderate, but grows with time and, in general, the severe emission scenario of RCP8.5 presents

  2. A Case Study of Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Building Levees to Mitigate the Joint Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR will magnify the impacts of storm surge; the resulting severe flooding and inundation can cause huge damage to coastal communities. Community leaders are considering implementing adaptation strategies, typically hard engineering projects, to protect coastal assets and resources. It is important to understand the costs and benefits of the proposed project before any decision is made. To mitigate the flooding impact of joint effects of storm surge and SLR, building levee segments is chosen to be a corresponding adaptation strategy to protect the real estate assets in the study area—the City of Miami, FL, USA. This paper uses the classic Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA to assess the cost efficiency and proposes corresponding improvements in the benefit estimation, by estimating the avoided damages of implementing levee projects. Results show that the city will benefit from implementing levee projects along the Miami River in both a one-time 10 year storm event with SLR and cumulative long-term damage scenarios. This study also suggests that conducting CBA is a critical process before making coastal adaptation planning investment. A more meaningful result of cost effectiveness is estimated by accounting for the appreciation and time value. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to verify how the choice of discount rate influences the result. Uncertain factors including the rate of SLR, storm intensification, land use changes, and real estate appreciation are further analyzed.

  3. Comprehensive Condition Survey and Storm Waves, Circulation, and Sediment Study, Dana Point Harbor, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    waters; 3) west to northwest local sea; 4) prefrontal local sea; 5) tropical storm swell; and 6) extratropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere...14-13 58 Prefrontal local sea The coastal zone within the south Orange County area is vulnerable under extratropical winter storm conditions (a...wave characteristics for severe extratropical storms during the 39 yr time period (1970–2008) are comparable to peak storm wave heights that were

  4. Development of the Second-Generation Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter with Variable Geometry: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, Nathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Yu, Yi-Hsiang [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Thresher, Robert W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kelly, Michael [South Dakota School of Mines

    2017-07-25

    This study investigates the effect of design changes on the hydrodynamics of a novel oscillating surge wave energy converter being developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The design utilizes controllable geometry features to shed structural loads while maintaining a rated power over a greater number of sea states. The second-generation design will seek to provide a more refined control of performance because the first-generation design demonstrated performance reductions considered too large for smooth power output. Performance is evaluated using frequency domain analysis with consideration of a nonideal power-take-off system, with respect to power absorption, foundation loads, and power-take-off torque.

  5. A Coupled Atmospheric and Wave Modeling System for Storm Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Du, Jianting; Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Bolanos, R.

    2015-01-01

    to parametrize z0. The results are validated through QuikScat data and point measurements from an open ocean site Ekosk and a coastal, relatively shallow water site Horns Rev. It is found that the modeling system captures in general better strong wind and strong wave characteristics for open ocean condition than......This study aims at improving the simulation of wind and waves during storms in connection with wind turbine design and operations in coastal areas. For this particular purpose, we investigated the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System which couples the Weather...... resolution ranging from 25km to 2km. Meanwhile, the atmospheric forcing data of dierent spatial resolution, with one about 100km (FNL) and the other about 38km (CFSR) are both used. In addition, bathymatry data of diferent resolutions (1arc-minute and 30arc-seconds) are used. We used three approaches...

  6. Regional-scale impact of storm surges on groundwaters of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico after 2017 hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellier, W. H.; Dürr, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes and related storm surges have devastating effects on near-shore infrastructure and above-ground installations. They also heavily impact groundwater resources, with potentially millions of people dependant on these resources as a freshwater source. Destructions of casings and direct incursions of saline and/or polluted waters have been widely observed. It is uncertain how extensive the effects are on underground water systems, especially in limestone karst areas such as Florida and Puerto Rico. Here, we report regional-scale water level changes in groundwater systems of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico for the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. We collected regional scale data from the USGS Waterdata portal. Puerto Rico shows the strongest increase in groundwater levels in wells during Hurricane Maria, with less reaction for the preceding storms Irma and Jose. Increases in water levels range from 0.5 to 11m, with maximum storm surges in Puerto Rico around 3m. These wells are located throughout Puerto Rico, on the coast and inland. In Florida, most wells that show a response during Hurricane Irma are located in the Miami region. Wells located on the west coast show smaller responses with the exception of one well located directly on Hurricane Irma's track. These wells show an increase of 0.2 to 1.7m. In Texas, wells located in proximity to Hurricane Harvey's track show an increase in water level. The effect of groundwater level increases is not limited to the Texas coast, but inland as well. An increase between 0.03 and 2.9m is seen. Storm surges for both Florida and Texas have ranged from 1.8-3.7m maximum. We discuss the findings in the context of local and regional geology and hydrogeology (presence of connected aquifer systems, faulting, presence of carbonate/karst systems etc.).

  7. Balancing Power Absorption and Fatigue Loads in Irregular Waves for an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, Nathan M.; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Wright, Alan D.; Lawson, Michael

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe how to control the power-to-load ratio of a novel wave energy converter (WEC) in irregular waves. The novel WEC that is being developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory combines an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) with control surfaces as part of the structure; however, this work only considers one fixed geometric configuration. This work extends the optimal control problem so as to not solely maximize the time-averaged power, but to also consider the power-take-off (PTO) torque and foundation forces that arise because of WEC motion. The objective function of the controller will include competing terms that force the controller to balance power capture with structural loading. Separate penalty weights were placed on the surge-foundation force and PTO torque magnitude, which allows the controller to be tuned to emphasize either power absorption or load shedding. Results of this study found that, with proper selection of penalty weights, gains in time-averaged power would exceed the gains in structural loading while minimizing the reactive power requirement.

  8. Nonlinear surge motions of a ship in bi-chromatic following waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyrou, Kostas J.; Themelis, Nikos; Kontolefas, Ioannis

    2018-03-01

    Unintended motions of a ship operating in steep and long following waves are investigated. A well-known such case is ;surf-riding; where a ship is carried forward by a single wave, an event invoking sometimes lateral instability and even capsize. The dynamics underlying this behavior has been clarified earlier for monochromatic waves. However, the unsteadiness of the phase space associated with ship behavior in a multichromatic sea, combined with the intrinsically strong system nonlinearity, pose new challenges. Here, current theory is extended to cover surging and surf-riding behavior in unidirectional bi-chromatic waves encountering a ship from the stern. Excitation is provided by two unidirectional harmonic wave components having their lengths comparable to the ship length and their frequencies in rational ratio. The techniques applied include (a) continuation analysis; (b) tracking of Lagrangian coherent structures in phase space, approximated through a finite-time Lyapunov exponents' calculation; and (c) large scale simulation. A profound feature of surf-riding in bi-chromatic waves is that it is turned oscillatory. Initially it appears as a frequency-locked motion, ruled by the harmonic wave component dominating the excitation. Transformations of oscillatory surf-riding are realized as the waves become steeper. In particular, heteroclinic tanglings are identified, governing abrupt transitions between qualitatively different motions. Chaotic transients, as well as long-term chaotic motions, exist near to these events. Some extraordinary patterns of ship motion are discovered. These include a counterintuitive low speed motion at very high wave excitation level; and a hybrid motion characterized by a wildly fluctuating velocity. Due to the quite generic nature of the core mathematical model of our investigation, the current results are believed to offer clues about the behavior of a class of nonlinear dynamical systems having in their modeling some analogy with

  9. Theory of the synchronous motion of an array of floating flap gates oscillating wave surge converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michele, Simone; Sammarco, Paolo; d'Errico, Michele

    2016-08-01

    We consider a finite array of floating flap gates oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC) in water of constant depth. The diffraction and radiation potentials are solved in terms of elliptical coordinates and Mathieu functions. Generated power and capture width ratio of a single gate excited by incoming waves are given in terms of the radiated wave amplitude in the far field. Similar to the case of axially symmetric absorbers, the maximum power extracted is shown to be directly proportional to the incident wave characteristics: energy flux, angle of incidence and wavelength. Accordingly, the capture width ratio is directly proportional to the wavelength, thus giving a design estimate of the maximum efficiency of the system. We then compare the array and the single gate in terms of energy production. For regular waves, we show that excitation of the out-of-phase natural modes of the array increases the power output, while in the case of random seas we show that the array and the single gate achieve the same efficiency.

  10. Preliminary Analysis of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter with Controlled Geometry: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tom, Nathan; Lawson, Michael; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Wright, Alan

    2015-09-09

    The aim of this paper is to present a novel wave energy converter device concept that is being developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The proposed concept combines an oscillating surge wave energy converter with active control surfaces. These active control surfaces allow for the device geometry to be altered, which leads to changes in the hydrodynamic properties. The device geometry will be controlled on a sea state time scale and combined with wave-to-wave power-take-off control to maximize power capture, increase capacity factor, and reduce design loads. The paper begins with a traditional linear frequency domain analysis of the device performance. Performance sensitivity to foil pitch angle, the number of activated foils, and foil cross section geometry is presented to illustrate the current design decisions; however, it is understood from previous studies that modeling of current oscillating wave energy converter designs requires the consideration of nonlinear hydrodynamics and viscous drag forces. In response, a nonlinear model is presented that highlights the shortcomings of the linear frequency domain analysis and increases the precision in predicted performance.

  11. Instability of drift Alfven wave accompanying polar magnetic storm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higuchi, Yoshihiro

    1974-01-01

    As the micro plasma instability due to the plasma non-uniformity in magnetosphere, there is the instability of drift Alfven wave. With the data obtained with the network of multiple observation points for geomagnetism, attempt was made to prove the hypothesis that the instability of drift Alfven wave due to the electron temperature gradient at the inner boundary of plasma sheet may be one of the causes for the geomagnetic pulsation (Pi 1) accompanying polar magnetic storm. Up to date, final conclusion is yet impossible as to the problems in it due to the discussion based on the data from widely separated observation points. The installation of economically efficient multi-point observation network is necessary for the solution. (Mori, K.)

  12. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay P. Sah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  13. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, J.P.; Ross, M.S.; Ross, M.S.; Ogurcak, D.E.; Snyder, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on post fire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with under story type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pine lands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  14. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  15. The transforming perception of a regional geohazard between coastal defence and mediated discourse on global warming: Storm surges in Hamburg, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverla, I.; Lüthje, C.

    2010-03-01

    The term regional geohazard is used for a major geophysical risk which can lead to a natural disaster. The effects will be strictly located to a specific region. It is expected but still not proven that global warming will intensify weather extremes and thus the number of regional geohazards will increase. Regional geohazards are not dangerous per se, but from the perspective of human being certain weather and nature extremes are considered dangerous as they impose damage on human beings and their belongings. Therefore the media often call them ‘natural disaster’ and as a matter of fact it seems to be a ‘must’ - according to theory and practice of news selections - that media report on any natural disaster that occur in their region. Moreover, media even report on geohazards in any other region as soon as these events seem to have any general impact. The major geophysical risk along the coast of the North Sea is storm surges. A long list of historical disasters has deeply engraved the ubiquity of this hazard into the collective memory and habitus of the local population. Not only coastal region is concerned by this danger but also the megacity of Hamburg. Hamburg is the second-largest city in Germany and the sixth-largest city in the European Union. The Hamburg Metropolitan Region has more than 4.3 million inhabitants. The estuary of the river Elbe extends from Cuxhaven (coast) to Hamburg a distance of about 130 km. Hamburg has often been subject to storm surges with significant damages. But after the storm flood in 1855 for more than 100 years until 1962 no severe storm surge happened. The Big Flood in the night from February 16 to February 17 1962 destroyed the homes of about 60.000 people. The death toll amounted to 315 in the city of Hamburg, where the storm surge had a traumatic impact and was followed by political decisions driven by the believe in technological solutions. After 1962 massive investments into the coastal defence were made and dikes

  16. Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Smith, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.

  17. Storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

    1985-01-01

    At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

  18. Development of wave and surge atlas for the design and protection of coastal bridges in south Louisiana : [tech summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    The failures of highway bridges on the Gulf Coast seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were unprecedented. : In the past four decades, wind waves accompanied by high surges from hurricanes have damaged a number of coastal : bridges alon...

  19. An Improved Ocean Observing System for Coastal Louisiana: WAVCIS (WAVE-CURRENT-SURGE Information System )

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Stone, G. W.; Gibson, W. J.; Braud, D.

    2005-05-01

    WAVCIS is a regional ocean observing and forecasting system. It was designed to measure, process, forecast, and distribute oceanographic and meteorological information. WAVCIS was developed and is maintained by the Coastal Studies Institute at Louisiana State University. The in-situ observing stations are distributed along the central Louisiana and Mississippi coast. The forecast region covers the entire Gulf of Mexico with emphasis on offshore Louisiana. By using state-of-the-art instrumentation, WAVCIS measures directional waves, currents, temperature, water level, conductivity, turbidity, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, Meteorological parameters include wind speed and direction, air pressure and temperature visibility and humidity. Through satellite communication links, the measured data are transmitted to the WAVCIS laboratory. After processing, they are available to the public via the internet on a near real-time basis. WAVCIS also includes a forecasting capability. Waves, tides, currents, and winds are forecast daily for up to 80 hours in advance. There are a number of numerical wave and surge models that can be used for forecasts. WAM and SWAN are used for operational purposes to forecast sea state. Tides at each station are predicted based on the harmonic constants calculated from past in-situ observations at respective sites. Interpolated winds from the ETA model are used as input forcing for waves. Both in-situ and forecast information are available online to the users through WWW. Interactive GIS web mapping is implemented on the WAVCIS webpage to visualize the model output and in-situ observational data. WAVCIS data can be queried, retrieved, downloaded, and analyzed through the web page. Near real-time numerical model skill assessment can also be performed by using the data from in-situ observing stations.

  20. Storm-wave trends in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ojeda

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Thirty-year time series of hindcast wave data were analysed for 10 coastal locations along the eastern Mexican coast to obtain information about storm events occurring in the region, with the goal of examining the possible presence of interannual trends in the number of storm-wave events and their main features (wave height, duration and energy content. The storms were defined according to their significant wave height and duration, and the events were classified as related to either tropical cyclones or Norte events. The occurrence and characteristics of both types of events were analysed independently. There is no statistically significant change in the number of storm-wave events related to Nortes or their characteristics during the study period. However, there is a subtle increase in the number of events related to tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean region and a more evident increase in wave height and energy content of these events.

  1. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve...... our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud...... images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea...

  2. Effect of Lactation Yield on First Follicular Wave Surge After Calving of Crossbred Dairy Cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.C.A Berber

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This study aimed  to evaluate the effect of lactation on first follicular wave surge of crossbred (Gir x Holstein dairy cattle.  Nine multiparous crossbred dairy cattle were divided according to daily milk production (Group 1 = milk production higher than average, n = 5; Group 2 = milk  production  lower  than  average,  n  =  4.  From  calving  (Day  0  until  divergence  of  first follicular wave, ovaries  was monitored daily by ultrasound exams to observed the follicular emergence,  growth  rate,  maximum  follicular  diameter,  day  of  follicular  divergence  and ovulation. The mean of milk production was 17.4 + 6.4 L/day (n= 9. Group 1 had higher daily milk production than Group 2 (21.8 + 3.8 L/day vs. 11.9 + 3.9 L/day, P< 0.001. Data of follicular emergence were similar in both groups (P >0.05. The growth  rate of first follicular surge was higher  in  Group  2  than  Group  1  (2.0  + 0.0  mm/day  vs  1.2  + 0.6  mm/day,  P<  0.05.  The maximum follicular diameter was 11.6  + 0.9 mm (Group 1 and 13.5  + 1.7 mm (Group 2; P< 0.05. The follicular divergence occurred earlier  in Group 1 than Group 2 (12.2  + 0.8 days vs 13.7 + 0.6 days; P< 0.05. One animal of Group 2 ovulated. In conclusion, data suggested that milk production had influence on ovarian follicular dynamic after calving.Keywords: Follicle, post-partum, lactation, dairy cattle

  3. Response of wave-dominated and mixed-energy barriers to storms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Masselink, G.; Heteren, S. van

    2014-01-01

    Wave-dominated and mixed-energy barriers are extremely dynamic landforms, responding to processes operating over a spectrum of time scales, ranging from daily-to-monthly fluctuations related to storm and post-storm conditions, to century-to-millennium-scale evolution driven by relative sea-level

  4. Wind fields of storms from surface isobars for wave hindcasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.; Vaithiyanathan, R.; Santanam, K.

    Marine operations of various types are critically linked to mean and extreme wave statistics. In the Indian seas extreme wave conditions are caused by cyclones and steady strong monsoon winds. Wave data from cyclone areas are not directly available...

  5. Modeling the influence of storms on sand wave formation : A linear stability approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campmans, G.H.P.; Roos, P.C.; de Vriend, H.J.; Hulscher, S.J.M.H.

    2017-01-01

    We present an idealized process-based morphodynamic model to study the effect of storms on sand wave formation. To this end, we include wind waves, wind-driven flow and, in addition to bed load transport, suspended load sediment transport. A linear stability analysis is applied to systematically

  6. Developmental programming: Prenatal BPA treatment disrupts timing of LH surge and ovarian follicular wave dynamics in adult sheep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiga-Lopez, A.; Beckett, E.M.; Abi Salloum, B.; Ye, W.; Padmanabhan, V.

    2014-01-01

    Developmental exposure to BPA adversely affects reproductive function. In sheep, prenatal BPA treatment induces reproductive neuroendocrine defects, manifested as LH excess and dampened LH surge and perturbs early ovarian gene expression. In this study we hypothesized that prenatal BPA treatment will also disrupt ovarian follicular dynamics. Pregnant sheep were treated from days 30 to 90 of gestation with 3 different BPA doses (0.05, 0.5, or 5 mg/kg BW/day). All female offspring were estrus synchronized and transrectal ultrasonography was performed daily for 22 days to monitor ovarian follicular and corpora lutea dynamics. Blood samples were collected to assess preovulatory hormonal changes and luteal progesterone dynamics. Statistical analysis revealed that the time interval between the estradiol rise and the preovulatory LH surge was shortened in the BPA-treated females. None of the three BPA doses had an effect on corpora lutea, progestogenic cycles, and mean number or duration of ovulatory and non-ovulatory follicles. However, differences in follicular count trajectories were evident in all three follicular size classes (2–3 mm, 4–5 mm, and ≥ 6 mm) of prenatal BPA-treated animals compared to controls. Number of follicular waves tended also to be more variable in the prenatal BPA-treated groups ranging from 2 to 5 follicular waves per cycle, while this was restricted to 3 to 4 waves in control females. These changes in ovarian follicular dynamics coupled with defects in time interval between estradiol rise and preovulatory LH release are likely to lead to subfertility in prenatal BPA-treated females. - Highlights: • Prenatal BPA shortens interval between estradiol rise and preovulatory LH surge. • Prenatal BPA affects follicular count trajectory and follicular wave occurrence. • Prenatal BPA does not affect ovulatory rate and progesterone dynamics

  7. Developmental programming: Prenatal BPA treatment disrupts timing of LH surge and ovarian follicular wave dynamics in adult sheep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiga-Lopez, A.; Beckett, E.M.; Abi Salloum, B. [Department of Pediatrics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Ye, W. [Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Padmanabhan, V., E-mail: vasantha@umich.edu [Department of Pediatrics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); The Reproductive Sciences Program, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Developmental exposure to BPA adversely affects reproductive function. In sheep, prenatal BPA treatment induces reproductive neuroendocrine defects, manifested as LH excess and dampened LH surge and perturbs early ovarian gene expression. In this study we hypothesized that prenatal BPA treatment will also disrupt ovarian follicular dynamics. Pregnant sheep were treated from days 30 to 90 of gestation with 3 different BPA doses (0.05, 0.5, or 5 mg/kg BW/day). All female offspring were estrus synchronized and transrectal ultrasonography was performed daily for 22 days to monitor ovarian follicular and corpora lutea dynamics. Blood samples were collected to assess preovulatory hormonal changes and luteal progesterone dynamics. Statistical analysis revealed that the time interval between the estradiol rise and the preovulatory LH surge was shortened in the BPA-treated females. None of the three BPA doses had an effect on corpora lutea, progestogenic cycles, and mean number or duration of ovulatory and non-ovulatory follicles. However, differences in follicular count trajectories were evident in all three follicular size classes (2–3 mm, 4–5 mm, and ≥ 6 mm) of prenatal BPA-treated animals compared to controls. Number of follicular waves tended also to be more variable in the prenatal BPA-treated groups ranging from 2 to 5 follicular waves per cycle, while this was restricted to 3 to 4 waves in control females. These changes in ovarian follicular dynamics coupled with defects in time interval between estradiol rise and preovulatory LH release are likely to lead to subfertility in prenatal BPA-treated females. - Highlights: • Prenatal BPA shortens interval between estradiol rise and preovulatory LH surge. • Prenatal BPA affects follicular count trajectory and follicular wave occurrence. • Prenatal BPA does not affect ovulatory rate and progesterone dynamics.

  8. Study of the responsible factors for the closure of an intermittent washout during a storm surge, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Serpa, Christian Garcia; Romeu, Marco Antônio Rígola; Fontoura, Jose Antonio Scotti; Calliari, Lauro Julio; Melo Filho, Eloi; Albuquerque, Miguel da Guia

    2011-01-01

    The washouts are water courses essential to the drainage of the water accumulated in the backshore zone, and are responsible for great ruptures in the dunes field. They supply the swash zone with large amounts of sediment. The study area is located a few kilometers south of the Patos Lagoon Inlet. This study measures the contribution of the wind, the waves, the atmospheric pressure and the tide on the elevation of the sea level in a period when the beach has suffered the impact of a storm sur...

  9. Observations and Predictions of Wave Runup, Extreme Water Levels, and Medium-Term Dune Erosion during Storm Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Suanez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of dune erosion and accretion on the high-energy macrotidal Vougot beach in North Brittany (France over the past decade (2004–2014 has revealed significant morphological changes. Dune toe erosion/accretion records have been compared with extreme water level measurements, defined as the sum of (i astronomic tide; (ii storm surge; and (iii vertical wave runup. Runup parameterization was conducted using swash limits, beach profiles, and hydrodynamic (Hm0, Tm0,–1, and high tide water level—HTWL data sets obtained from high frequency field surveys. The aim was to quantify in-situ environmental conditions and dimensional swash parameters for the best calibration of Battjes [1] runup formula. In addition, an empirical equation based on observed tidal water level and offshore wave height was produced to estimate extreme water levels over the whole period of dune morphological change monitoring. A good correlation between this empirical equation (1.01Hmoξo and field runup measurements (Rmax was obtained (R2 85%. The goodness of fit given by the RMSE was about 0.29 m. A good relationship was noticed between dune erosion and high water levels when the water levels exceeded the dune foot elevation. In contrast, when extreme water levels were below the height of the toe of the dune sediment budget increased, inducing foredune recovery. These erosion and accretion phases may be related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

  10. A numerical study of wave-current interaction through surface and bottom stresses: Coastal ocean response to Hurricane Fran of 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Wu, K.

    2003-02-01

    A three-dimensional wave-current coupled modeling system is used to examine the influence of waves on coastal currents and sea level. This coupled modeling system consists of the wave model-WAM (Cycle 4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The results from this study show that it is important to incorporate surface wave effects into coastal storm surge and circulation models. Specifically, we find that (1) storm surge models without coupled surface waves generally under estimate not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment, (2) introducing wave-induced surface stress effect into storm surge models can significantly improve storm surge prediction, (3) incorporating wave-induced bottom stress into the coupled wave-current model further improves storm surge prediction, and (4) calibration of the wave module according to minimum error in significant wave height does not necessarily result in an optimum wave module in a wave-current coupled system for current and storm surge prediction.

  11. The impact of waves and sea spray on modelling storm track and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lichuan Wu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In high wind speed conditions, sea spray generated by intensely breaking waves greatly influences the wind stress and heat fluxes. Measurements indicate that the drag coefficient decreases at high wind speeds. The sea spray generation function (SSGF, an important term of wind stress parameterisation at high wind speeds, is usually treated as a function of wind speed/friction velocity. In this study, we introduce a wave-state-dependent SSGF and wave-age-dependent Charnock number into a high wind speed–wind stress parameterisation. The newly proposed wind stress parameterisation and sea spray heat flux parameterisation were applied to an atmosphere–wave coupled model to study the mid-latitude storm development of six storm cases. Compared with measurements from the FINO1 platform in the North Sea, the new wind stress parameterisation can reduce wind speed simulation errors in the high wind speed range. Considering only sea spray impact on wind stress (and not on heat fluxes will intensify the storms (in terms of minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed, but has little effect on the storm tracks. Considering the impact of sea spray on heat fluxes only (not on wind stress can improve the model performance regarding air temperature, but it has little effect on the storm intensity and storm track performance. If the impact of sea spray on both the wind stress and heat fluxes is taken into account, the model performs best in all experiments for minimum sea level pressure, maximum wind speed and air temperature.

  12. Body-wave seismic interferometry applied to earthquake- and storm-induced wavefield

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruigrok, E.N.

    2012-01-01

    Seismology is the study of the vibration of the Earth. Seismologists pay much attention to the main source of Earth vibration: earthquakes. But also other seismic sources, like mining blasts, ocean storms and windmills, are studied. All these sources induce seismic waves, which can eventually be

  13. An Investigation into Power from Pitch-Surge Point-Absorber Wave Energy Converters.

    OpenAIRE

    Chaplin, R. V.; Aggidis, George A.

    2007-01-01

    There is a worldwide opportunity for clean renewable power. The results from the UK Government's "Marine Energy Challenge" showed that marine energy has the potential to become competitive with other forms of energy. The key to success in this lies in a low lifetime-cost of power as delivered to the user. Pitch-surge point-absorber WECs have the potential to do this with average annual powers of around 2 MW in North Atlantic conditions from relatively small devices that would be economically ...

  14. Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Arena

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches enable the combination of the two analyses. In the paper the analytical solution is obtained for the return period of a sea storm with at least two individual waves higher than a fixed level. This solution is based on the application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm model for the representation of actual storms. One of the corollaries of the solution gives the exact expression for the probability that at least two waves higher than fixed level are produced during the lifetime of a structure. The previous solution of return period and the relative probability of exceedance may be effectively applied for the risk analysis of ocean structures.

  15. Developmental programming: Prenatal BPA treatment disrupts timing of LH surge and ovarian follicular wave dynamics in adult sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veiga-Lopez, A; Beckett, EM; Abi Salloum, B; Ye, W; Padmanabhan, V

    2014-01-01

    Developmental exposure to BPA adversely affects reproductive function. In sheep, prenatal BPA treatment induces reproductive neuroendocrine defects, manifested as LH excess and dampened LH surge and perturbs early ovarian gene expression. In this study we hypothesized that prenatal BPA treatment will also disrupt ovarian follicular dynamics. Pregnant sheep were treated from days 30 to 90 of gestation with 3 different BPA doses (0.05, 0.5, or 5 mg/kg BW/day). All female offspring were estrus synchronized and transrectal ultrasonography was performed daily for 22 days to monitor ovarian follicular and corpora lutea dynamics. Blood samples were collected to assess hormonal preovulatory changes and luteal progesterone dynamics. Statistical analysis revealed that the time interval between the estradiol rise and the preovulatory LH surge was shortened in the BPA-treated females. None of the three BPA doses had an effect on corpora lutea, progestogenic cycles, and mean or duration of ovulatory and non-ovulatory follicles. However, differences in follicular count trajectories were evident in all three follicular size classes (2–3 mm, 4–5 mm, and ≥ 6 mm) of prenatal BPA-treated animals compared to controls. Number of follicular waves tended also to be more variable in the prenatal BPA-treated groups ranging from 2 to 5 follicular waves per cycle, while this was restricted to 3 to 4 waves in control females. These changes in ovarian follicular dynamics coupled with defects in time interval between estradiol rise and preovulatory LH release are likely to lead to subfertility in prenatal BPA-treated females. PMID:24923655

  16. Wave modelling to assess the storm conditions in the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Liliana; Raileanu, Alina

    2014-05-01

    The work proposed herewith presents the results of a ten-year wave hindcast performed in the Black Sea and focused on the storm conditions. A wave modelling system, SWAN based, was implemented in the basin of the Black Sea. Validations have been performed both against in situ and remotely sensed data for the entire ten-year period considered (1999-2008). The wind field provided by NCEP-CFSR (United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) with a spatial resolution of 0.312ºx0.312º and a temporal resolution of 3 hours was considered for forcing the wave model. In statistical terms, the results are in general in line with those provided by similar wave prediction systems implemented in enclosed or semi-enclosed seas, the most important factors in increasing the general system reliability being the accuracy and resolution of the wind fields considered. As regards the physical processes, the calibration tests performed show that whitecapping still represents the weak link in deep water wave modelling. The most relevant storm conditions encountered in this ten-year period considered were further analysed. This analysis was performed from the point of view of the intensity, location of occurrence, duration and propagation in the geographical space of the storms. Following the results of the work, the western side of the sea is more energetic and almost each year storms with significant wave heights of about eight meters are encountered in this part of the Black Sea, while in the case of the extreme storms significant wave heights even greater than eleven meters may occur. From this perspective, it can be concluded that the present work provides valuable information about the characteristics of the storm conditions and on their dynamics in the Black Sea. Moreover, this marine environment is currently subjected to high navigation traffic and to offshore operations and the strong storms that systematically occur may produce

  17. Storm-time electron flux precipitation in the inner radiation belt caused by wave-particle interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tadokoro

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available It has been believed that electrons in the inner belt do not show the dynamical variation during magnetic storms except for great magnetic storms. However, Tadokoro et al. (2007 recently disclosed that low-altitude electrons in the inner belt frequently show flux variations during storms (Storm Time inner belt Electron Enhancement at the Low altitude (STEEL. This paper investigates a possible mechanism explaining STEEL during small and moderate storms, and shows that it is caused not by radial transport processes but by pitch angle scattering through wave-particle interactions. The waves related to wave-particle interactions are attributed to be banded whistler mode waves around 30 kHz observed in the inner magnetosphere by the Akebono satellite. The estimated pitch angle distribution based on a numerical calculation is roughly consistent with the observed results.

  18. Northeast storms ranked by wind stress and wave-generated bottom stress observed in Massachusetts Bay, 1990-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butman, B.; Sherwood, C.R.; Dalyander, P.S.

    2008-01-01

    Along the coast of the northeastern United States, strong winds blowing from the northeast are often associated with storms called northeasters, coastal storms that strongly influence weather. In addition to effects caused by wind stress, the sea floor is affected by bottom stress associated with these storms. Bottom stress caused by orbital velocities associated with surface waves integrated over the duration of a storm is a metric of storm strength at the sea floor. Near-bottom wave-orbital velocities calculated by using measurements of significant wave height and dominant wave period and the parametric spectral method described in Wiberg and Sherwood [Wiberg, P.L., Sherwood, C.R. Calculating wave-generated bottom orbital velocities from surface wave parameters. Computers in Geosciences, in press] compared well with observations in Massachusetts Bay. Integrated bottom-wave stress (called IWAVES), calculated at 30 m water depth, and a companion storm-strength metric, integrated surface wind stress at 10 m (called IWINDS), are used to provide an overview of the strength, frequency, and timing of large storms in Massachusetts Bay over a 17-year period from January 1990 through December 2006. These new metrics reflect both storm duration and intensity. Northeast storms were the major cause of large waves in Massachusetts Bay because of the long fetch to the east: of the strongest 10% of storms (n=38) ranked by IWAVES, 22 had vector-averaged wind stress from the northeast quadrant. The Blizzard of December 1992, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and a December 2003 storm were the strongest three storms ranked by IWAVES and IWINDS, and all were northeasters. IWAVES integrated over the winter season (defined as October-May) ranged by about a factor of 11; the winters with the highest integrated IWAVES were 1992-1993 and 2004-2005 and the winter with the lowest integrated IWAVES was 2001-2002. May 2005 was the only month in the 17-year record that two of the nine

  19. The impact of waves and sea spray on modeling storm track and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Lichuan; Rutgersson, Anna; Sahlée, Erik

    2015-01-01

    parameterisation were applied to anatmospherewave coupled model to study the mid-latitude storm development of six storm cases. Comparedwith measurements from the FINO1 platform in the North Sea, the new wind stress parameterisation canreduce wind speed simulation errors in the high wind speed range. Considering......In high wind speed conditions, sea spray generated by intensely breaking waves greatly influences the windstress and heat fluxes. Measurements indicate that the drag coefficient decreases at high wind speeds. The seaspray generation function (SSGF), an important term of wind stress parameterisation...... at high wind speeds, isusually treated as a function of wind speed/friction velocity. In this study, we introduce a wave-state-dependentSSGF and wave-age-dependent Charnock number into a high wind speedwind stress parameterisation. Thenewly proposed wind stress parameterisation and sea spray heat flux...

  20. Advanced Direct-Drive Generator for Improved Availability of Oscillating Wave Surge Converter Power Generation Systems Final Technical Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englebretson, Steven [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Ouyang, Wen [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Tschida, Colin [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Carr, Joseph [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Ramanan, V.R. [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Johnson, Matthew [Texas A& M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Gardner, Matthew [Texas A& M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Toliyat, Hamid [Texas A& M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Staby, Bill [Resolute Marine Energy, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Chertok, Allan [Resolute Marine Energy, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Hazra, Samir [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States); Bhattacharya, Subhashish [ABB Inc., Cary, NC (United States)

    2017-05-13

    This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE-EERE funded project DE-EE0006400, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with Texas A&M’s Advanced Electric Machines & Power Electronics (EMPE) Lab and Resolute Marine Energy (RME) designed, derisked, developed, and demonstrated a novel magnetically geared electrical generator for direct-drive, low-speed, high torque MHK applications The project objective was to investigate a novel and compact direct-drive electric generator and its system aspects that would enable elimination of hydraulic components in the Power Take-Off (PTO) of a Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) system with an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC), thereby improving the availability of the MHK system. The scope of this project was limited to the development and dry lab demonstration of a low speed generator to enable future direct drive MHK systems.

  1. Response of internal solitary waves to tropical storm Washi in the northwestern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. H. Xu

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Based on in-situ time series data from an array of temperature sensors and an acoustic Doppler current profiler on the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea, a sequence of internal solitary waves (ISWs were observed during the passage of tropical storm Washi in the summer of 2005, which provided a unique opportunity to investigate the ISW response to the tropical cyclone. The passing tropical storm is found to play an important role in affecting the stratification structure of the water column, and consequently leading to significant variability in the propagating features of the ISWs, such as the polarity reversal and amplitude variations of the waves. The response of the ISWs to Washi can be divided into two stages, direct forcing by the strong wind (during the arrival of Washi and remote forcing via the near-inertial internal waves induced by the tropical storm (after the passage of Washi. The field observations as well as a theoretical analysis suggest that the variations of the ISWs closely coincide with the changing stratification structure and shear currents in accompanied by the typhoon wind and near-inertial waves. This study presents the first observations and analysis of the ISW response to the tropical cyclone in the South China Sea.

  2. Lake Michigan Storm: Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    does appear the ice implementation does well to replicate either iced (flagged for ice coverage), or for a low wave energy environment. Granted there...Jensen, D.T. Resio, R.A. Luettich, C. Dawson, V.J. Cardone , A.T. Cox, M.D. Powell, H.J. Westerink, and H.J. Roberts. (2010). “A high resolution coupled...coast,” In Preparation, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS. ERDC/CHL TR-12-26 310 Jensen, R.E., V.J. Cardone , and A.T

  3. Are inundation limit and maximum extent of sand useful for differentiating tsunamis and storms? An example from sediment transport simulations on the Sendai Plain, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Masashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2018-02-01

    We examined the quantitative difference in the distribution of tsunami and storm deposits based on numerical simulations of inundation and sediment transport due to tsunami and storm events on the Sendai Plain, Japan. The calculated distance from the shoreline inundated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami was smaller than that inundated by storm surges from hypothetical typhoon events. Previous studies have assumed that deposits observed farther inland than the possible inundation limit of storm waves and storm surge were tsunami deposits. However, confirming only the extent of inundation is insufficient to distinguish tsunami and storm deposits, because the inundation limit of storm surges may be farther inland than that of tsunamis in the case of gently sloping coastal topography such as on the Sendai Plain. In other locations, where coastal topography is steep, the maximum inland inundation extent of storm surges may be only several hundred meters, so marine-sourced deposits that are distributed several km inland can be identified as tsunami deposits by default. Over both gentle and steep slopes, another difference between tsunami and storm deposits is the total volume deposited, as flow speed over land during a tsunami is faster than during a storm surge. Therefore, the total deposit volume could also be a useful proxy to differentiate tsunami and storm deposits.

  4. Abnormal storm waves in the winter East/Japan Sea: generation process and hindcasting using an atmosphere-wind wave modelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. S. Lee

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abnormal storm waves cause coastal disasters along the coasts of Korean Peninsula and Japan in the East/Japan Sea (EJS in winter, arising due to developed low pressures during the East Asia winter monsoon. The generation of these abnormal storm waves during rough sea states were studied and hindcast using an atmosphere-wave coupled modelling system. Wind waves and swell due to developed low pressures were found to be the main components of abnormal storm waves. The meteorological conditions that generate these waves are classified into three patterns based on past literature that describes historical events as well as on numerical modelling. In hindcasting the abnormal storm waves, a bogussing scheme originally designed to simulate a tropical storm in a mesoscale meteorological model was introduced into the modelling system to enhance the resolution of developed low pressures. The modelling results with a bogussing scheme showed improvements in terms of resolved low pressure, surface wind field, and wave characteristics obtained with the wind field as an input.

  5. Characteristics of storms driving wave-induced seafloor mobility on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalyander, P. Soupy; Butman, Bradford

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between spatial and temporal patterns of wave-driven sediment mobility events on the U.S. East Coast continental shelf and the characteristics of the storms responsible for them. Mobility events, defined as seafloor wave stress exceedance of the critical stress of 0.35 mm diameter sand (0.2160 Pa) for 12 or more hours, were identified from surface wave observations at National Data Buoy Center buoys in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) over the period of 1997-2007. In water depths ranging from 36-48 m, there were 4-9 mobility events/year of 1-2 days duration. Integrated wave stress during events (IWAVES) was used as a combined metric of wave-driven mobility intensity and duration. In the MAB, over 67% of IWAVES was caused by extratropical storms, while in the SAB, greater than 66% of IWAVES was caused by tropical storms. On average, mobility events were caused by waves generated by storms located 800+ km away. Far-field hurricanes generated swell 2-4 days before the waves caused mobility on the shelf. Throughout most of the SAB, mobility events were driven by storms to the south, east, and west. In the MAB and near Cape Hatteras, winds from more northerly storms and low-pressure extratropical systems in the mid-western U.S. also drove mobility events. Waves generated by storms off the SAB generated mobility events along the entire U.S. East Coast shelf north to Cape Cod, while Cape Hatteras shielded the SAB area from swell originating to the north offshore of the MAB.

  6. Self-organising of wave and beach relief in storm: field experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Olga; Saprykina, Yana; Kuznetsov, Sergey; Stremel, Margarita; Korsinin, Dmitry; Trifonova, Ekaterina; Andreeva, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents results of waves and morfodynamics observation carried out in frame of complex field experiments "Shkorpilowtsy-2016" and "Shkorpilowtsy-2007", which were made in order to understand how bottom deformations depend on wave parameters and how wave-bottom self-organisation process runs during storm events. Sediment transport and profile deformations were analysed taking into account the presence of underwater bar (data 2007) and without it (data 2016). Experiments were made on field base of Institute of Oceanology "Fridtjof Nansen" (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences) in Shkorpilowtsy settlement, that is locates on Black Sea coast, 40 km from Varna. The base is equipped with 253 m research pier that provide measuring until 5 m depth on distance 200 m from shore. During filed works synchronous observations on wave parameters and bottom changes were made on average three times a day for one month: 18.09-08.10.2007 and 07.10-02.11.2016. Morphological observations involved cross-shore beach profile deformations measuring along the scientific pier from shore to sea through each 2 m using metal pole in 2007 and metal or rope lot in 2016. Wave measurements included visual observations of breaking and surf zones location, wave type (wind or swell wave) and direction as well as free surface deviation (wave chronogram) registrations using high-frequency capacitive or resistance sensors mounted along the pier. In 2007 registration of free surface elevation was carried out with 7 capacitance and 8 resistant wire gauges, in 2016 - with 18 capacitance wire gauges. Sampling frequency was 5 Hz in 2007 and 20 Hz in 2016, duration of the records varied from 20 min up to one hour in 2007 and between 10 min and one hour in 2016. Wave spectra computed from chronogram allowed to estimate wave spectral (significant wave height, spectral peak and mean periods and complex) and integral parameters (Irribaren and Ursell numbers) to analyse dependence bottom deformations on it

  7. A Proton-Cyclotron Wave Storm Generated by Unstable Proton Distribution Functions in the Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, R. T.; Alexander, R. L.; Stevens, M.; Wilson, L. B., III; Moya, P. S.; Vinas, A.; Jian, L. K.; Roberts, D. A.; O’Modhrain, S.; Gilbert, J. A.; hide

    2016-01-01

    We use audification of 0.092 seconds cadence magnetometer data from the Wind spacecraft to identify waves with amplitudes greater than 0.1 nanoteslas near the ion gyrofrequency (approximately 0.1 hertz) with duration longer than 1 hour during 2008. We present one of the most common types of event for a case study and find it to be a proton-cyclotron wave storm, coinciding with highly radial magnetic field and a suprathermal proton beam close in density to the core distribution itself. Using linear Vlasov analysis, we conclude that the long-duration, large-amplitude waves are generated by the instability of the proton distribution function. The origin of the beam is unknown, but the radial field period is found in the trailing edge of a fast solar wind stream and resembles other events thought to be caused by magnetic field footpoint motion or interchange reconnection between coronal holes and closed field lines in the corona.

  8. Impacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana: Chapter 5D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Fauver, Laura A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Wright, C. Wayne

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Rita made landfall as a category 3 storm in western Louisiana in late September 2005, 1 month following Hurricane Katrina's devastating landfall in the eastern part of the State. Large waves and storm surge inundated the lowelevation coastline, destroying many communities and causing extensive coastal change including beach, dune, and marsh erosion.

  9. EMIC waves observed by the low-altitude satellite DEMETER during the November 2004 magnetic storm

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Píša, David; Parrot, M.; Santolík, Ondřej; Menietti, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, č. 7 (2015), s. 5455-5464 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12231 Grant - others:Rada Programu interní podpory projektů mezinárodní spolupráce AV ČR(CZ) M100421206 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : DEMETER * EMIC waves * geomagnetic storm Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 3.318, year: 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA020233/full

  10. STACKED SEARCH FOR GRAVITATIONAL WAVES FROM THE 2006 SGR 1900+14 STORM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Adhikari, R.; Anderson, S. B.; Araya, M.; Armandula, H.; Aso, Y.; Ballmer, S.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Aulbert, C.; Allen, G.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, W. G.; Armor, P.; Arain, M. A.; Aston, S.; Aufmuth, P.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.

    2009-01-01

    We present the results of a LIGO search for short-duration gravitational waves (GWs) associated with the 2006 March 29 SGR 1900+14 storm. A new search method is used, 'stacking' the GW data around the times of individual soft-gamma bursts in the storm to enhance sensitivity for models in which multiple bursts are accompanied by GW emission. We assume that variation in the time difference between burst electromagnetic emission and potential burst GW emission is small relative to the GW signal duration, and we time-align GW excess power time-frequency tilings containing individual burst triggers to their corresponding electromagnetic emissions. We use two GW emission models in our search: a fluence-weighted model and a flat (unweighted) model for the most electromagnetically energetic bursts. We find no evidence of GWs associated with either model. Model-dependent GW strain, isotropic GW emission energy E GW , and γ ≡ E GW /E EM upper limits are estimated using a variety of assumed waveforms. The stacking method allows us to set the most stringent model-dependent limits on transient GW strain published to date. We find E GW upper limit estimates (at a nominal distance of 10 kpc) of between 2 x 10 45 erg and 6 x 10 50 erg depending on the waveform type. These limits are an order of magnitude lower than upper limits published previously for this storm and overlap with the range of electromagnetic energies emitted in soft gamma repeater (SGR) giant flares.

  11. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  12. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-05

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  13. Correlación entre ondas de ensayo para dispositivos supresores de sobretensiones Correlation factor between standard surge waves for testing transient overvoltage suppressor devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Guillermo Zola

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Existe un variado número de ondas impulsivas estándar que se utilizan para ensayar el funcionamiento de los dispositivos supresores de sobretensiones transitorias. En particular, resultan de importancia los ensayos que comprueban la corriente máxima de impulso de descarga. Se analiza en este trabajo la relación existente entre estas distintas formas de ondas impulsivas, de forma tal de poder obtener una correlación entre ellas para aplicar una u otra con similares resultados. Las conclusiones que se alcanzan a partir de un desarrollo teórico simplificado son corroboradas mediante medición en laboratorio y simulación.A wide number of standard surge waves current for testing the behavior of transient overvoltage suppressor devices are currently being used. The value of pick surge current is one of the most important tests. The ratio between the surge waves to obtain a correlation factor between them, so they can be applied to get equivalent results is analyzed in this paper. The theoretical conclusions are verified by simulation and laboratory measurements.

  14. The use of long-term observations in combination with modeling and their effect on the estimation of the North Sea storm surge climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aspelien, T.

    2006-07-01

    The aim of this PhD thesis is to design, implement and assess a method to combine long-term observations with multi-decadal model simulations. In this work a computationally cost-efficient nudging method, well suited for multi-decadal simulations, is chosen. First, the nudging method was tested for its sensitivity to different parameters. Then the long-term observations of sea level height from the UK tide gauge Aberdeen were combined with a multi-decadal hindcast for the North Sea. Compared to a control simulation, in which no observed values of sea level height were combined with the model, the nudging method generally improves the modeled water levels with respect to the observed values, especially for surge. The estimation of long-term fluctuations and biases of extreme values of high waters in the nudged simulation are generally considerably improved after nudging and closer to the observed. The effect is largest in the German Bight and at the West coast of Denmark. It is concluded that the cost-efficient nudging method, in which external processes, such as external surges, are additionally taken into account, provides a considerable improvement in reproducing long-term variations and trends, especially for surge. Without additional data from e.g. observed values from tide gauges taken into account, the meteorological induced long-term variations in a hindcast are not fully captured. (orig.)

  15. Impact of Cyclone Track Features and Tidal Phase Shift upon Surge Characteristics in the Bay of Bengal along the Bangladesh Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Asad Hussain

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of cyclone track features (e.g., cyclone translation speed, cyclone path and cyclone landfall crossing angle in combination with tidal phase shift upon surge characteristics have been investigated at the Bay of Bengal along the Bangladesh coast. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in a horizontal direction (2DH coupled with a storm-surge model has been employed for the study. Numerical experiments with three different cyclone translation speeds show that when the surge height is directly forced by the cyclonic wind speed especially within the RWM (Radius of Maximum Wind, faster translation speed produces reduced surge height as the cyclone gets less time to force the water. On the other hand, at locations outside the RMW, surge waves travel as a propagating long wave where higher surges are produced by faster moving cyclones. It is found that surge arrival times are more and more affected by tidal phase when cyclone translation speed is reduced. Analysis of seven hypothetical parallel cyclone paths show that local bathymetry and complex coastline configurations strongly influence the surge height and surge arrival time along the Bangladesh coast. From the analyses of cyclone landfall crossing angles at the Khulna and Chittagong coasts, it is observed that surge durations are the smallest at both the coasts when the coastline crossing angles are the smallest.

  16. Competition Between Radial Loss and EMIC Wave Scattering of MeV Electrons During Strong CME-shock Driven Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, M. K.; Jaynes, A. N.; Li, Z.; Malaspina, D.; Millan, R. M.; Patel, M.; Qin, M.; Shen, X.; Wiltberger, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    The two strongest storms of Solar Cycle 24, 17 March and 22 June 2015, provide a contrast between magnetospheric response to CME-shocks at equinox and solstice. The 17 March CME-shock initiated storm produced a stronger ring current response with Dst = - 223 nT, while the 22 June CME-shock initiated storm reached a minimum Dst = - 204 nT. The Van Allen Probes ECT instrument measured a dropout in flux for both events which can be characterized by magnetopause loss at higher L values prior to strong recovery1. However, rapid loss is seen at L 3 for the June storm at high energies with maximum drop in the 5.2 MeV channel of the REPT instrument coincident with the observation of EMIC waves in the H+ band by the EMFISIS wave instrument. The rapid time scale of loss can be determined from the 65 minute delay in passage of the Probe A relative to the Probe B spacecraft. The distinct behavior of lower energy electrons at higher L values has been modeled with MHD-test particle simulations, while the rapid loss of higher energy electrons is examined in terms of the minimum resonant energy criterion for EMIC wave scattering, and compared with the timescale for loss due to EMIC wave scattering which has been modeled for other storm events.2 1Baker, D. N., et al. (2016), Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, 6647-6660, doi:10.1002/2016JA022502. 2Li, Z., et al. (2014), Investigation of EMIC wave scattering as the cause for the BARREL 17 January 2013 relativistic electron precipitation event: A quantitative comparison of simulation with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8722-8729, doi:10.1002/2014GL062273.

  17. Evidence for Gravity Wave Seeding of Convective Ionosphere Storms Initiated by Deep Troposphere Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, M. C.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.; Dao, E. V.; Holzworth, R. H., II

    2014-12-01

    With the increase in solar activity, the Communications/Outage Forecast System satellite (C/NOFS) now goes below the F peak. As such, we now can study the development of Convective Ionospheric Storms (CIS) and, most importantly, large-scale seeding of the low growth-rate Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability. Two mechanisms have been suggested for such seeding: the Collisional Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (CKHI) and internal atmospheric gravity waves. A number of observations have shown that the spectrum of fully developed topside structures peaks at 600 km and extends to over 1000 km. These structures are exceedingly difficult to explain by CKHI. Here we show that sinusoidal plasma oscillations on the bottomside during daytime develop classical R-T structures on the nightside with the background 600 km structure still apparent. In two case studies, thunderstorm activity was observed east of the sinusoidal features in the two hours preceding the C/NOFS passes. Thus, we argue that convective tropospheric storms are a likely source of these sinusoidal features.

  18. EFFECTS OF ALFVEN WAVES ON ELECTRON CYCLOTRON MASER EMISSION IN CORONAL LOOPS AND SOLAR TYPE I RADIO STORMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, G. Q.; Chen, L.; Wu, D. J. [Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing 210008 (China); Yan, Y. H., E-mail: djwu@pmo.ac.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2013-06-10

    Solar type I radio storms are long-lived radio emissions from the solar atmosphere. It is believed that these type I storms are produced by energetic electrons trapped within a closed magnetic structure and are characterized by a high ordinary (O) mode polarization. However, the microphysical nature of these emissions is still an open problem. Recently, Wu et al. found that Alfven waves (AWs) can significantly influence the basic physics of wave-particle interactions by modifying the resonant condition. Taking the effects of AWs into account, this work investigates electron cyclotron maser emission driven by power-law energetic electrons with a low-energy cutoff distribution, which are trapped in coronal loops by closed solar magnetic fields. The results show that the emission is dominated by the O mode. It is proposed that this O mode emission may possibly be responsible for solar type I radio storms.

  19. Character, distribution, and ecological significance of storm wave-induced scour in Rhode Island Sound, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullen, Katherine Y.; Poppe, Lawrence J.; Parker, Castle E.

    2015-01-01

    Multibeam bathymetry, collected during NOAA hydrographic surveys in 2008 and 2009, is coupled with USGS data from sampling and photographic stations to map the seabed morphology and composition of Rhode Island Sound along the US Atlantic coast, and to provide information on sediment transport and benthic habitats. Patchworks of scour depressions cover large areas on seaward-facing slopes and bathymetric highs in the sound. These depressions average 0.5-0.8 m deep and occur in water depths reaching as much as 42 m. They have relatively steep well-defined sides and coarser-grained floors, and vary strongly in shape, size, and configuration. Some individual scour depressions have apparently expanded to combine with adjacent depressions, forming larger eroded areas that commonly contain outliers of the original seafloor sediments. Where cobbles and scattered boulders are present on the depression floors, the muddy Holocene sands have been completely removed and the winnowed relict Pleistocene deposits exposed. Low tidal-current velocities and the lack of obstacle marks suggest that bidirectional tidal currents alone are not capable of forming these features. These depressions are formed and maintained under high-energy shelf conditions owing to repetitive cyclic loading imposed by high-amplitude, long-period, storm-driven waves that reduce the effective shear strength of the sediment, cause resuspension, and expose the suspended sediments to erosion by wind-driven and tidal currents. Because epifauna dominate on gravel floors of the depressions and infauna are prevalent in the finer-grained Holocene deposits, it is concluded that the resultant close juxtaposition of silty sand-, sand-, and gravel-dependent communities promotes regional faunal complexity. These findings expand on earlier interpretations, documenting how storm wave-induced scour produces sorted bedforms that control much of the benthic geologic and biologic diversity in Rhode Island Sound.

  20. Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; McCall, Robert T.; van Rooijen, Arnold; Norris, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

  1. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil K.; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented.Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion.Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term

  2. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental

  3. A Perspective on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge from Southern and Eastern Africa: A Case Study Near Durban, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek D. Stretch

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent coastal storms in southern Africa have highlighted the need for more proactive management of the coastline. Within the southern and eastern African region the availability of coastal information is poor. The greatest gap in information is the likely effects of a combination of severe sea storms and future sea level rise (SLR on the shoreline. This lack of information creates a barrier to informed decision making. This research outlines a practical localized approach to this problem, which can be applied as a first order assessment within the region. In so doing it provides a cost effective and simple decision support tool for the built environment and disaster professionals in development and disaster assessments. In a South African context the newly promulgated Integrated Coastal Management Act requires that all proposed coastal developments take into consideration future SLR, however such information currently does not exist, despite it being vital for informed planning in the coastal zone. This practical approach has been applied to the coastline of Durban, South Africa as a case study. The outputs are presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS based freeware viewer tool enabling ease of access to both professionals and laypersons. This demonstrates that a simple approach can provide valuable information about the current and future risk of flooding and coastal erosion under climate change to buildings, infrastructure as well as natural features along the coast.

  4. Modelling of storm-driven shelf waves north of Scotland—I. Idealized models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaps, N. S.; Huthnance, J. M.; Jones, J. E.; Wolf, J.

    1988-11-01

    Storm-driven currents observed over the Scottish continental shelf were described by GORDON and HUTHNANCE (1987 , Continental Shelf Research, 7, 1015-1048). Their suggestion of continental shelf-wave responses is investigated here using semi-analytic and numerical models of a straight continental shelf. Grid resolution, boundary conditions, truncations and differences of depth profile are considered with the semi-analytic model, from which dispersion curves and wave forms are derived. These forms are closely matched by the fully numerical model forced by specified elevations at one end. Further numerical calculations are described, for idealized wind forcing along or across limited regions of the shelf or slope. Localized forcing of short duration gives currents of the type observed, being rotary (clockwise) with roughly 22 h period. More extensive alongshelf forcing gives predominantly alongshelf currents with a strength tending to follow the forcing; the second form of observed response. Frictional effects are considered. A companion paper ( FLATHER and PROCTOR, 1988 , in preparation) describes the results of numerical simulations using realistic meteorological forcing and bathymetry.

  5. Estimation of Downtime and of Missed Energy Associated with a Wave Energy Converter by the Equivalent Power Storm Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felice Arena

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The design of any wave energy converter involves the determination of relevant statistical data on the wave energy resource oriented to the evaluation of the structural reliability and energy performance of the device. Currently, limited discussions concern the estimation of parameters connected to the energy performance of a device. Thus, this paper proposes a methodology for determining average downtime and average missed energy, which is the energy that is not harvested because of device deactivations during severe sea storms. These quantities are fundamental for evaluating the expected inactivity of a device during a year or during its lifetime and are relevant for assessing the effectiveness of a device working at a certain site. For this purpose, the equivalent power storm method is used for their derivation, starting from concepts pertaining to long-term statistical analysis. The paper shows that the proposed solutions provide reliable estimations via comparison with results obtained by processing long wave data.

  6. Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

    2012-01-01

    The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

  7. Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach

  8. Effect of geomagnetic storms on the daytime low-latitude thermospheric wave dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karan, Deepak K.; Pallamraju, Duggirala

    2018-05-01

    The equatorial- and low-latitude thermospheric dynamics is affected by both equatorial electrodynamics and neutral wave dynamics, the relative variation of which is dependent on the prevalent background conditions, which in turn has a seasonal dependence. Depending on the ambient thermospheric conditions, varying effects of the geomagnetic disturbances on the equatorial- and low-latitude thermosphere are observed. To investigate the effect of these disturbances on the equatorial- and low-latitude neutral wave dynamics, daytime airglow emission intensities at OI 557.7 nm, OI 630.0 nm, and OI 777.4 nm are used. These emissions from over a large field-of-view (FOV∼1000) have been obtained using a high resolution slit spectrograph, MISE (Multiwavelength Imaging Spectrograph using Echelle grating), from a low-latitude location, Hyderabad (17.50N, 78.40E; 8.90N MLAT), in India. Variations of the dayglow emission intensities are investigated during three geomagnetic disturbance events that occurred in different seasons. It is seen that the neutral dayglow emission intensities at all the three wavelengths showed different type of variations with the disturbance storm time (Dst) index in different seasons. Even though the dayglow emission intensities over low-latitude regions are sensitive to the variation in the equatorial electric fields, during periods of geomagnetic disturbances, especially in solstices, these are dependent on thermospheric O/N2 values. This shows the dominance of neutral dynamics over electrodynamics in the low-latitude upper atmosphere during geomagnetic disturbances. Further, spectral analyses have been carried out to obtain the zonal scale sizes in the gravity wave regime and their diurnal distributions are compared for geomagnetic quiet and disturbed days. Broadly, the zonal scales seem to be breaking into various scale sizes on days of geomagnetic disturbances when compared to those on quiet days. This contrast in the diurnal distribution of the

  9. Assessment of Damage and Adaptation Strategies for Structures and Infrastructure from Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise for a Coastal Community in Rhode Island, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Small

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of inundation, erosion, and wave damage for a coastal community in Rhode Island, USA. A methodology called the Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI was used that incorporates levels of inundation including sea level rise, wave heights using STWAVE, and detailed information about individual structures from an E911 database. This information was input into damage functions developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane Sandy. Damage from erosion was evaluated separately from local published erosion rates. Using CERI, two different adaptation strategies were evaluated that included a combination of dune restoration, protective berms, and a tide gate. A total of 151 out of 708 structures were estimated to be protected from inundation and wave action by the combined measures. More importantly, the use of CERI allowed for the assessment of the impact of different adaptation strategies on both individual structures and an entire community in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS environment. This tool shows promise for use by coastal managers to assess damage and mitigate risk to coastal communities.

  10. Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.

    2017-12-01

    High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.

  11. Modeling the dynamics of a storm-time acceleration event: combining MHD effects with wave-particle interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkington, S. R.; Alam, S. S.; Chan, A. A.; Albert, J.; Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Wiltberger, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Global simulations of radiation belt dynamics are often undertaken using either a transport formalism (e.g. Fokker-Plank), or via test particle simulations in model electric and magnetic fields. While transport formalisms offer computational efficiency and the ability to deal with a wide range of wave-particle interactions, they typically rely on simplified background fields, and often are limited to empirically-specified stochastic (diffusive) wave-particle interactions. On the other hand, test particle simulations may be carried out in global MHD simulations that include realistic physical effects such as magnetopause shadowing, convection, and substorm injections, but lack the ability to handle physics outside the MHD approximation in the realm of higher frequency (kHz) wave populations.In this work we introduce a comprehensive simulation framework combining global MHD/test particle techniques to provide realistic background fields and radial transport processes, with a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) method for addressing high frequency wave-particle interactions. We examine the March 17, 2013 storm-time acceleration period, an NSF-GEM focus challenge event, and use the framework to examine the relative importance of physical effects such as magnetopause shadowing, diffusive and advective transport processes, and wave-particle interactions through the various phases of the storm.

  12. A joint analysis of wave and surge conditions for past and present extrem events in the south-western Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groll, Nikolaus; Gaslikova, Lidia

    2017-04-01

    Extreme marine events in the south-western Baltic Sea like the historic storm in 1872 are rare, but have large impacts on human safety and coastal infrastructure. The aforementioned extreme storm event of 1872 and has cost over 250 human lives, left severely damaged infrastructure and caused land loss due to coastal erosion. Recent extreme events also result in drastic impacts to coastal regions. Using results from numerical wave and hydrodynamic model simulations we will present a joint analysis of wave and water level conditions for selected extreme events. For the historic event the numerical models have been forced by reconstructed wind and pressure fields from pressure readings. Simulated atmospheric conditions from reanalysis have been used for the more recent events. The height of the water level due to the possible previous inflow of water masses in the Baltic Sea basin, as well as possible seiches and swell effects have been incorporated in the simulations. We will discuss similarities and differences between the historic and the more recent marine hazard events.

  13. Van Allen Probe Observations of Chorus Wave Activity, Source and Seed electrons, and the Radiation Belt Response During ICME and CIR Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingham, S.; Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Farrugia, C. J.; Paulson, K. W.; Huang, C. L.; Boyd, A. J.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C.

    2017-12-01

    Whistler mode chorus waves are electromagnetic waves that have been shown to be a major contributor to enhancements in the outer radiation belt during geomagnetic storms. The temperature anisotropy of source electrons (10s of keV) provides the free energy for chorus waves, which can accelerate sub-relativistic seed electrons (100s of keV) to relativistic energies. This study uses Van Allen Probe observations to examine the excitation and plasma conditions associated with chorus wave observations, the development of the seed population, and the outer radiation belt response in the inner magnetosphere, for 25 ICME and 35 CIR storms. Plasma data from the Helium Oxygen Proton Electron (HOPE) instrument and magnetic field measurements from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) are used to identify chorus wave activity and to model a linear theory based proxy for chorus wave growth. A superposed epoch analysis shows a peak of chorus wave power on the dawnside during the storm main phase that spreads towards noon during the storm recovery phase. According to the linear theory results, this wave activity is driven by the enhanced convection driving plasma sheet electrons across the dayside. Both ICME and CIR storms show comparable levels of wave growth. Plasma data from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) and the Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) are used to observe the seed and relativistic electrons. A superposed epoch analysis of seed and relativistic electrons vs. L shows radiation belt enhancements with much greater frequency in the ICME storms, coinciding with a much stronger and earlier seed electron enhancement in the ICME storms.

  14. Factors controlling storm impacts on coastal barriers and beaches - A preliminary basis for near real-time forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    Analysis of ground conditions and meteorological and oceanographic parameters for some of the most severe Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms in the U.S. reveals the primary factors affecting morphological storm responses of beaches and barrier islands. The principal controlling factors are storm characteristics, geographic position relative to storm path, timing of storm events, duration of wave exposure, wind stress, degree of flow confinement, antecedent topography and geologic framework, sediment textures, vegetative cover, and type and density of coastal development. A classification of commonly observed storm responses demonstrates the sequential interrelations among (1) land elevations, (2) water elevations in the ocean and adjacent lagoon (if present), and (3) stages of rising water during the storm. The predictable coastal responses, in relative order from high frequency beach erosion to low frequency barrier inundation, include: beach erosion, berm migration, dune erosion, washover terrace construction, perched fan deposition, sheetwash, washover channel incision, washout formation, and forced and unforced ebb flow. Near real-time forecasting of expected storm impacts is possible if the following information is available for the coast: a detailed morphological and topographic characterization, accurate storm-surge and wave-runup models, the real-time reporting of storm parameters, accurate forecasts of the storm position relative to a particular coastal segment, and a conceptual model of geological processes that encompasses observed morphological changes caused by extreme storms.

  15. Numerical modeling of wave overwash on low-crested sand barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuan, T.Q.; Verhagen, H.J.; Visser, P.J.; Stive, M.

    2006-01-01

    For management of coastal breaching hazards it is critical to be able to assess the potential of coastal barrier breaching as a result of wave actions during storm surges (wave overwash). This phenomenon is known as the breach initiation phase; the mechanisms behind this are not very well

  16. Global ionospheric effects of geomagnetic storm on May 2-3, 2010 and their influence on HF radio wave propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotova, Daria; Klimenko, Maxim; Klimenko, Vladimir; Zakharov, Veniamin

    2013-04-01

    In this work we have investigated the global ionospheric response to geomagnetic storm on May 2-3, 2010 using GSM TIP (Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere) simulation results. In the GSM TIP storm time model runs, several input parameters such as cross-polar cap potential difference and R2 FAC (Region 2 Field-Aligned Currents) varied as a function of the geomagnetic activity AE-index. Current simulation also uses the empirical model of high-energy particle precipitation by Zhang and Paxton. In this model, the energy and energy flux of precipitating electrons depend on a 3 hour Kp-index. We also have included the 30 min time delay of R2 FAC variations with respect to the variations of cross-polar cap potential difference. In addition, we use the ground-based ionosonde data for comparison our model results with observations. We present an analysis of the physical mechanisms responsible for the ionospheric effects of geomagnetic storms. The obtained simulation results are used by us as a medium for HF radio wave propagation at different latitudes in quiet conditions, and during main and recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm. To solve the problem of the radio wave propagation we used Zakharov's (I. Kant BFU) model based on geometric optics. In this model the solution of the eikonal equation for each of the two normal modes is reduced using the method of characteristics to the integration of the six ray equation system for the coordinates and momentum. All model equations of this system are solved in spherical geomagnetic coordinate system by the Runge-Kutta method. This model was tested for a plane wave in a parabolic layer. In this study, the complex refractive indices of the ordinary and extraordinary waves at ionospheric heights was calculated for the first time using the global first-principal model of the thermosphere-ionosphere system that describes the parameters of an inhomogeneous anisotropic medium during a

  17. Field-aligned structure of the storm time Pc 5 wave of November 14-15, 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, K.; Higbie, P.R.; Fennell, J.F.; Amata, E.

    1987-01-01

    Magnetic field data from the four satellites SCATHA (P78-2), GOES 2, GOES 3, and GEOS 2 have been analyzed to examine the magnetic field-aligned structure of a storm time Pc 5 wave that occurred on November 14-15, 1979. The wave had both transverse and compressional components. At a given instance the compressional and the radial components oscillated in phase of 180 degree out of phase, and the compressional and the azimuthal components oscillated +90 degree or -90 degree out of phase. In addition, each component changed its amplitude with magnetic latitude: the compressional component had a minimum at the magnetic equator, whereas the transverse components had a maximum at the equator and minima several degrees off the equator. A 180 degree relative phase switching among the components occurred across the latitudes of amplitude minima. From these observations the field line displacement of the wave is confirmed to have an antisymmetric standing structure about the magnetic equator with a parallel wave length of a few earth radii. The authors also observed other intriguing properties of the wave such as different parallel wave lengths of different field components and small-amplitude second harmonics near the nodes. A dielectric tensor appropriate for the ring current plasma is found to give an explanation for the relation between the polarization and the propagation of the wave. However, plasma data available from SCATHA does not support either the drift mirror instability of A. Hasegawa (1969) or the coupling between a drift mirror wave and a shear Alfven wave as discussed by A.D.M. Walker et al. (1982)

  18. Coastal ecosystems for protection against storm surge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    and infrastructure in single catastrophe exceeded Rs. 2750 crore. Economic loss is thus prohibitive and hence unsustainable. This paper acknowledges the intrinsic protective value of coastal sand dunes, vegetation and wetlands as a functional natural defence...

  19. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the North

  20. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert, E-mail: hondula@virginia.edu [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, PO Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the

  1. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hondula, David M.; Dolan, Robert

    2010-07-01

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'—such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989—are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the

  2. Centrifugal Compressor Surge Controlled

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoch, Gary J.

    2003-01-01

    It shows the variation in compressor mass flow with time as the mass flow is throttled to drive the compressor into surge. Surge begins where wide variations in mass flow occur. Air injection is then turned on to bring about a recovery from the initial surge condition and stabilize the compressor. The throttle is closed further until surge is again initiated. Air injection is increased to again recover from the surge condition and stabilize the compressor.

  3. Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Idier

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The English Channel is characterised by strong tidal currents and a wide tidal range, such that their influence on surges is expected to be non-negligible. In order to better assess storm surges in this zone, tide-surge interactions are investigated. A preliminary data analysis on hourly surges indicates some preferential times of occurrence of large storm surges at rising tide, especially in Dunkerque. To examine this further, a numerical modelling approach is chosen, based on the 2DH shallow-water model (MARS. The surges are computed both with and without tide interaction. For the two selected events (the November 2007 North Sea and March 2008 Atlantic storms, it appears that the instantaneous tide-surge interaction is seen to be non-negligible in the eastern half of the English Channel, reaching values of 74 cm (i.e. 50% of the same event maximal storm surge in the Dover Strait for the studied cases. This interaction decreases in westerly direction. In the risk-analysis community in France, extreme water levels have been determined assuming skew surges and tide as independent. The same hydrodynamic model is used to investigate this dependence in the English Channel. Simple computations are performed with the same meteorological forcing, while varying the tidal amplitude, and the skew surge differences DSS are analysed. Skew surges appear to be tide-dependent, with negligible values of DSS (<0.05 m over a large portion of the English Channel, although reaching several tens of centimetres in some locations (e.g. the Isle of Wight and Dover Strait.

  4. Experimental and numerical statistics of storm wave forces on a monopile in uni- and multidirectional seas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Ghadirian, Amin

    2017-01-01

    the straight multiples of the peak frequency. Further, the higher harmonics of the multidirectional wave spectra contain less energy. Both effects can be explained by the second order wave theory. Finally, the computed wave kinematics are used to investigate the dynamic response of an offshore wind turbine...

  5. Estimation of oceanic subsurface mixing under a severe cyclonic storm using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Kumar Ravi; Nigam, Tanuja; Pant, Vimlesh

    2018-04-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model was used to examine mixing in the upper-oceanic layers under the influence of a very severe cyclonic storm Phailin over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 10-14 October 2013. The coupled model was found to improve the sea surface temperature over the uncoupled model. Model simulations highlight the prominent role of cyclone-induced near-inertial oscillations in subsurface mixing up to the thermocline depth. The inertial mixing introduced by the cyclone played a central role in the deepening of the thermocline and mixed layer depth by 40 and 15 m, respectively. For the first time over the BoB, a detailed analysis of inertial oscillation kinetic energy generation, propagation, and dissipation was carried out using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model during a cyclone. A quantitative estimate of kinetic energy in the oceanic water column, its propagation, and its dissipation mechanisms were explained using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model. The large shear generated by the inertial oscillations was found to overcome the stratification and initiate mixing at the base of the mixed layer. Greater mixing was found at the depths where the eddy kinetic diffusivity was large. The baroclinic current, holding a larger fraction of kinetic energy than the barotropic current, weakened rapidly after the passage of the cyclone. The shear induced by inertial oscillations was found to decrease rapidly with increasing depth below the thermocline. The dampening of the mixing process below the thermocline was explained through the enhanced dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy upon approaching the thermocline layer. The wave-current interaction and nonlinear wave-wave interaction were found to affect the process of downward mixing and cause the dissipation of inertial oscillations.

  6. Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

    2015-07-01

    Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number

  7. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    of Extreme Sea Level 11.3.1 An Introduction to Storms Both mid-latitude and tropical storms are associated with extremes of sea level. Storm surges are generated by low atmospheric pressure and intense winds over the ocean. The latter also cause high wave... timescales, extremes and mean-sea-level change are both major factors in determining coastal evolution including the development of coastal ecosystems. It will be seen below that, although it is difficult to determine how mean sea level has changed...

  8. Estimation of oceanic subsurface mixing under a severe cyclonic storm using a coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. R. Prakash

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model was used to examine mixing in the upper-oceanic layers under the influence of a very severe cyclonic storm Phailin over the Bay of Bengal (BoB during 10–14 October 2013. The coupled model was found to improve the sea surface temperature over the uncoupled model. Model simulations highlight the prominent role of cyclone-induced near-inertial oscillations in subsurface mixing up to the thermocline depth. The inertial mixing introduced by the cyclone played a central role in the deepening of the thermocline and mixed layer depth by 40 and 15 m, respectively. For the first time over the BoB, a detailed analysis of inertial oscillation kinetic energy generation, propagation, and dissipation was carried out using an atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled model during a cyclone. A quantitative estimate of kinetic energy in the oceanic water column, its propagation, and its dissipation mechanisms were explained using the coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model. The large shear generated by the inertial oscillations was found to overcome the stratification and initiate mixing at the base of the mixed layer. Greater mixing was found at the depths where the eddy kinetic diffusivity was large. The baroclinic current, holding a larger fraction of kinetic energy than the barotropic current, weakened rapidly after the passage of the cyclone. The shear induced by inertial oscillations was found to decrease rapidly with increasing depth below the thermocline. The dampening of the mixing process below the thermocline was explained through the enhanced dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy upon approaching the thermocline layer. The wave–current interaction and nonlinear wave–wave interaction were found to affect the process of downward mixing and cause the dissipation of inertial oscillations.

  9. Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

    2016-09-01

    Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

  10. Storm tide monitoring during the blizzard of January 26-28, 2015, in eastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Andrew J.; Verdi, Richard J.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of six storm surge sensors and four barometric pressure sensors along the Atlantic coast in eastern Massachusetts, from Plymouth to Newburyport, before the blizzard of January 26–28, 2015 (Blizzard of January 2015), to record the timing and magnitude of storm tide at select locations where forecasters had predicted the potential for coastal flooding. Additionally, water-level data were recorded and transmitted in near real-time from four permanent USGS tidal stations—three on Cape Cod and one near the mouth of the Merrimack River in Newburyport. The storm surge sensors were deployed at previously established fixed sites outfitted with presurveyed mounting brackets. The mounting brackets were installed in 2014 as part of the USGS Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamic (SWaTH) Network (https://water.usgs.gov/floods/STN/), which was funded through congressional supplemental appropriations for the U.S. Department of the Interior after the devastating landfall of Hurricane Sandy on October 29, 2012 (Simmons and others, 2014). The USGS received this funding to enable better understanding of coastal flooding hazards in the region, to improve preparedness for future coastal storms, and to increase the resilience of coastal cities, infrastructure, and natural systems in the region (Buxton and others, 2013). The USGS established 163 monitoring locations along the New England coast for the SWaTH Network, including 70 sites in Massachusetts.

  11. Coast of California Storm and Tidal Waves Study. Southern California Coastal Processes Data Summary,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-02-01

    1950-76 (from Brownlie and Taylor, 1981). -42- U r4 P4 V - (1 ,i UU~ll ,,It,,. * *** *i .o o9 o4V4 cc ",,,.I ,- %4 6P atar 4 P40.U0 41 u 1 ඄ 4 .1...Each of these summaries reviews hundreds of scientific papers dealing with California shelf marine geology, chemistry, biology , climatology and...wave action, rain, water, and wind processes, natural or induced landslides, and animal and human activity. Erosion related to animals consists primarily

  12. Origin of the pre-tropical storm Debby (2006) African easterly wave-mesoscale convective system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yuh-Lang; Liu, Liping; Tang, Guoqing; Spinks, James; Jones, Wilson

    2013-05-01

    The origins of the pre-Debby (2006) mesoscale convective system (MCS) and African easterly wave (AEW) and their precursors were traced back to the southwest Arabian Peninsula, Asir Mountains (AS), and Ethiopian Highlands (EH) in the vicinity of the ITCZ using satellite imagery, GFS analysis data and ARW model. The sources of the convective cloud clusters and vorticity perturbations were attributed to the cyclonic convergence of northeasterly Shamal wind and the Somali jet, especially when the Mediterranean High shifted toward east and the Indian Ocean high strengthened and its associated Somali jet penetrated farther to the north. The cyclonic vorticity perturbations were strengthened by the vorticity stretching associated with convective cloud clusters in the genesis region—southwest Arabian Peninsula. A conceptual model was proposed to explain the genesis of convective cloud clusters and cyclonic vorticity perturbations preceding the pre-Debby (2006) AEW-MCS system.

  13. Green roof and storm water management policies: monitoring experiments on the ENPC Blue Green Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Gires, Auguste; Fitton, George; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    Currently widespread in new urban projects, green roofs have shown a positive impact on urban runoff at the building/parcel scale. Nevertheless, there is no specific policy promoting their implementation neither in Europe nor in France. Moreover they are not taken into account (and usually considered as an impervious area) in the sizing of a retention basin for instance. An interesting example is located in the heart of the Paris-East Cluster for Science and Technology (Champs-sur-Marne, France). Since 2013 a large (1 ha) wavy-form vegetated roof (called bleu green wave) is implemented. Green roof area and impervious areas are connected to a large retention basin, which has been oversized. The blue green wave represents a pioneering site where an initially amenity (decorative) design project has been transformed into a research oriented one. Several measurement campaigns have been conducted to investigate and better understand the hydrological behaviour of such a structure. Rainfall, humidity, wind velocity, water content and temperature have been particularly studied. The data collected are used for several purposes: (i) characterize the spatio-temporal variability of the green roof response, (ii) calibrate and validate a specific model simulating its hydrological behavior. Based on monitoring and modeling results, green roof performances will be quantified. It will be possible to estimate how they can reduce stormwater runoff and how these performances can vary in space and in time depending on green roof configuration, rainfall event characteristics and antecedent conditions. These quantified impacts will be related to regulation rules established by stormwater managers in order to connect the parcel to the sewer network. In the particular case of the building of a retention basin, the integration of green roof in the sizing of the basin will be studied. This work is funded by the European Blue Green Dream project (http://bgd.org.uk/, funded by Climate

  14. Validation Test Report for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere MesoscalePrediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0: Ocean/Wave Component Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-31

    wind flow ahead of the next extratropical low pressure system entering Europe . Figure 3.4-4 shows the mean SWH difference and mean NCOM-only and...RED) TC TRACKS ARE SHOWN. CIRCLES ON BOTH TRACKS REPRESENT HOURLY LOCATIONS OF THE STORM CENTERS. ..................................... 18  FIGURE...conditions such as wave boundary conditions, tides, wind, and storm surge. A quasi-stationary approach is used with stationary SWAN computations in a

  15. Dune recovery after storm erosion on a high-energy beach: Vougot Beach, Brittany (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suanez, Serge; Cariolet, Jean-Marie; Cancouët, Romain; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Delacourt, Christophe

    2012-02-01

    On 10th March 2008, the high energy storm Johanna hit the French Atlantic coast, generating severe dune erosion on Vougot Beach (Brittany, France). In this paper, the recovery of the dune of Vougot Beach is analysed through a survey of morphological changes and hydrodynamic conditions. Data collection focused on the period immediately following storm Johanna until July 2010, i.e. over two and a half years. Results showed that the dune retreated by a maximum of almost 6 m where storm surge and wave attack were the most energetic. Dune retreat led to the creation of accommodation space for the storage of sediment by widening and elevating space between the pre- and post-storm dune toe, and reducing impacts of the storm surge. Dune recovery started in the month following the storm event and is still ongoing. It is characterised by the construction of "secondary" embryo dunes, which recovered at an average rate of 4-4.5 cm per month, although average monthly volume changes varied from - 1 to 2 m 3.m - 1 . These embryo dunes accreted due to a large aeolian sand supply from the upper tidal beach to the existing foredune. These dune-construction processes were facilitated by growth of vegetation on low-profile embryo dunes promoting backshore accretion. After more than two years of survey, the sediment budget of the beach/dune system showed that more than 10,000 m 3 has been lost by the upper tidal beach. We suggest that seaward return currents generated during the storm of 10th March 2008 are responsible for offshore sediment transport. Reconstitution of the equilibrium beach profile following the storm event may therefore have generated cross-shore sediment redistribution inducing net erosion in the tidal zone.

  16. Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-04-01

    The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

  17. Hurricane Harvey rapid response: observations of infragravity wave dynamics and morphological change during inundation of a barrier island cut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Figlus, J.; Dellapenna, T. M.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    Prior to landfall of Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017, instrumentation was deployed on the seaward and landward sides of a barrier island on the central Texas Gulf Coast to collect in-situ hydrodynamic measurements during storm impact. High-resolution devices capable of withstanding extreme conditions included inexpensive pressure transducers and tilt current meters mounted within and atop (respectively) shallow monitoring wells. In order to link measurements of storm hydrodynamics with the morphological evolution of the barrier, pre- and post-storm digital elevation models were generated using a combination of unmanned aerial imagery, LiDAR, and real-time kinematic GPS. Push-cores were collected and analyzed for grain size and sedimentary structure to relate hydrodynamic observations with the local character of storm-generated deposits. Observations show that at Hog Island, located approximately 160 miles northeast of Harvey's landfall location, storm surge inundated an inactive storm channel. Infragravity waves (0.003 - 0.05 Hz) dominated the water motion onshore of the berm crest over a 24-hour period proximate to storm landfall. Over this time, approximately 50 cm of sediment accreted vertically atop the instrument located in the backshore. Storm deposits at this location contained sub-parallel alternating laminae of quartz and heavy mineral-enriched sand. While onshore progression of infragravity waves into the back-barrier was observed over several hours prior to storm landfall, storm deposits in the back-barrier lack the characteristic laminae preserved in the backshore. These field measurements will ultimately be used to constrain and validate numerical modeling schemes that explore morphodynamic conditions of barriers in response to extreme storms (e.g., XBeach, CSHORE). This study provides a unique data set linking extreme storm hydrodynamics with geomorphic changes during a relatively low surge, but highly dissipative wave event.

  18. Wetland shoreline recession in the Mississippi River Delta from petroleum oiling and cyclonic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangoonwala, Amina; Jones, Cathleen E.; Ramsey, Elijah W.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the relative impact of petroleum spill and storm surge on near-shore wetland loss by quantifying the lateral movement of coastal shores in upper Barataria Bay, Louisiana (USA), between June 2009 and October 2012, a study period that extends from the year prior to the Deepwater Horizon spill to 2.5 years following the spill. We document a distinctly different pattern of shoreline loss in the 2 years following the spill, both from that observed in the year prior to the spill, during which there was no major cyclonic storm, and from change related to Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in August 2012. Shoreline erosion following oiling was far more spatially extensive and included loss in areas protected from wave-induced erosion. We conclude that petroleum exposure can substantially increase shoreline recession particularly in areas protected from storm-induced degradation and disproportionally alters small oil-exposed barrier islands relative to natural erosion.

  19. Tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Qiu, Xixi; Feng, Xiangbo; Gong, Wenping

    2017-06-01

    A triply-nested two-dimensional (2D) ocean circulation model along with observed sea level records are used to study tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula (LP) which is characterized by extensive mudflats, large tidal ranges and a complex coastline. The dependency of surge maxima on the water level and the phase of tide are respectively investigated using two statistical approaches. Results show that tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the LP is significant, where surges peak 3-6 h before or after the nearest high water. The triply-nested 2D ocean circulation model is used to quantify tide-surge interaction in this region and to investigate its physical cause. The largest amplitudes of tide-surge interaction are found in the shallow water region of the Leizhou Bay, with values up to 1 m during typhoon events. Numerical experiments reveal that nonlinear bottom friction is the main contributor to tide-surge interaction, while the contribution of the nonlinear advective effect can be neglected. The shallow water effect enhances the role of nonlinear bottom friction in determining tide-surge modulation, leaving the surge peaks usually occur on the rising or falling tide. It is also found that the relative contribution of local wind and remote wind is different depending on the storm track and storm intensity, which would finally affect the temporal and spatial distribution of tide-surge interaction during typhoon events. These findings confirm the importance of coupling storm surges and tides for the prediction of storm surge events in regions which are characterized by shallow water depths and large tidal ranges.

  20. Field observation of morpho-dynamic processes during storms at a Pacific beach, Japan: role of long-period waves in storm-induced berm erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuguchi, Masaru; Seki, Katsumi

    2015-01-01

    Many ultrasonic wave gages were placed with a small spacing across the swash zone to monitor either sand level or water level. Continuous monitoring conducted for a few years enabled the collection of data on the change in wave properties as well as swash-zone profiles. Data sets including two cases of large-scale berm erosion were analyzed. The results showed that 1) shoreline erosion started when high waves with significant power in long-period (1 to 2 min.) waves reached the top of a well-developed berm with the help of rising tide; 2) the beach in the swash zone was eroded with higher elevation being more depressed, while the bottom elevation just outside the swash zone remained almost unchanged; and 3) erosion stopped in a few hours after the berm was completely eroded or the swash-zone slope became uniformly mild. These findings strongly suggest that long waves play a dominant role in the swash-zone dynamics associated with these erosional events.

  1. Coastal Flooding in Florida's Big Bend Region with Application to Sea Level Rise Based on Synthetic Storms Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott C. Hagen Peter Bacopoulos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is examined by comparing maximum envelopes of water against the 0.2% (= 1-in-500-year return-period flooding surface generated as part of revising the Federal Emergency Management Agency¡¦s flood insurance rate maps for Franklin, Wakulla, and Jefferson counties in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region. The analysis condenses the number of storms to a small fraction of the original 159 used in production. The analysis is performed by assessing which synthetic storms contributed to inundation extent (the extent of inundation into the floodplain, coverage (the overall surface area of the inundated floodplain and the spatially variable 0.2% flooding surface. The results are interpreted in terms of storm attributes (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, translation speed, storm heading, and landfall location and the physical processes occurring within the natural system (storms surge and waves; both are contextualized against existing and new hurricane scales. The approach identifies what types of storms and storm attributes lead to what types of inundation, as measured in terms of extent and coverage, in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region and provides a basis in the identification of a select subset of synthetic storms for studying the impact of sea level rise. The sea level rise application provides a clear contrast between a dynamic approach versus that of a static approach.

  2. Gravity wave generation and propagation during geomagnetic storms over Kiruna (67.8°N, 20.4°E

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Fagundes

    1995-04-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric gravity waves, detected over Kiruna (67.8°N, 20.4°E during geomagnetic storms, are presented and analysed. The data include direct measurements of the OI 630.0 nm emission line intensity, the x-component of the local geomagnetic field and thermospheric (meridional and zonal wind velocities derived from the OI 630.0 nm Doppler shift observed with an imaging Fabry-Perot interferometer (IFPI. A low pass band filter technique was used to determine short-period variations in the thermospheric meridional wind velocities observed during geomagnetic storms. These short-period variations in the meridional wind velocities, which are identified as due to gravity waves, are compared to the corresponding variations observed in the OI 630.0 nm emission line intensity, x-component of the local geomagnetic field and the location of the auroral electrojet. A cross-correlation analysis was used to calculate the propagation velocities of the observed gravity waves.

  3. Investigation of the relationship between hurricane waves and extreme runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. M.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2006-12-01

    In addition to storm surge, the elevation of wave-induced runup plays a significant role in forcing geomorphic change during extreme storms. Empirical formulations for extreme runup, defined as the 2% exceedence level, are dependent on some measure of significant offshore wave height. Accurate prediction of extreme runup, particularly during hurricanes when wave heights are large, depends on selecting the most appropriate measure of wave height that provides energy to the nearshore system. Using measurements from deep-water wave buoys results in an overprediction of runup elevation. Under storm forcing these large waves dissipate across the shelf through friction, whitecapping and depth-limited breaking before reaching the beach and forcing swash processes. The use of a local, shallow water wave height has been shown to provide a more accurate estimate of extreme runup elevation (Stockdon, et. al. 2006); however, a specific definition of this local wave height has yet to be defined. Using observations of nearshore waves from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC during Hurricane Isabel, the most relevant measure of wave height for use in empirical runup parameterizations was examined. Spatial and temporal variability of the hurricane wave field, which made landfall on September 18, 2003, were modeled using SWAN. Comparisons with wave data from FRF gages and deep-water buoys operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center were used for model calibration. Various measures of local wave height (breaking, dissipation-based, etc.) were extracted from the model domain and used as input to the runup parameterizations. Video based observations of runup collected at the FRF during the storm were used to ground truth modeled values. Assessment of the most appropriate measure of wave height can be extended over a large area through comparisons to observations of storm- induced geomorphic change.

  4. Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

    2006-06-01

    Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

  5. Tide-surge Interaction Intensified by the Taiwan Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Zhou; Shi, Fengyan; Hong, Hua-Sheng; Shang, Shao-Ping; Kirby, James T.

    2010-06-01

    The Taiwan Strait is a long and wide shelf-channel where the hydrodynamics is extremely complex, being characterized by strong tides, and where storm surges frequently occur during the typhoon season. Obvious oscillations due to tide-surge interaction were observed by tide gauges along the northern Fujian coast, the west bank of the Taiwan Strait, during Typhoon Dan (1999). Numerical experiments indicate that nonlinear bottom friction (described by the quadratic formula) is a major factor to predict these oscillations while the nonlinear advective terms and the shallow water effect have little contribution. It is found that the tide-surge interaction in the northern portion of the Taiwan Strait is intensified by the strait. Simulations based on simplified topographies with and without the island of Taiwan show that, in the presence of the island, the channel effect strengthens tidal currents and tends to align the major axes of tidal ellipses along the channel direction. Storm-induced currents are also strengthened by the channel. The pattern of strong tidal currents and storm-induced currents along the channel direction enhances tide-surge interaction via the nonlinear bottom friction, resulting in the obvious oscillations along the northern Fujian coast.

  6. Influence of Surge on Extreme Roll Amplitudes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena; Rognebakke, Olav; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    2008-01-01

    Interference of the wave-induced ship surge motion with roll dynamics has been studied. The surge motion has been included in a previously derived hydrodynamic roll prediction model in order to account for the ship speed variation due to the longitudinal incident wave pressure force. Depending...... balanced in order to determine the added thrust term that would represent actions to maintain speed The resulting forward speed variation affects the frequency of encounter and the parametric roll resonant condition is directly influenced by this speed variation. The analysis procedure is demonstrated...... for an example containership sailing mainly in head sea condition and higher sea states. Sensitivity of the results to the added thrust model and vertical motion calculation is discussed....

  7. Measuring and building resilience after big storms: Lessons learned from Super-Storm Sandy for the Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdoch, P. S.; Penn, K. M.; Taylor, S. M.; Subramanian, B.; Bennett, R.

    2017-12-01

    As we recover from recent large storms, we need information to support increased environmental and socio-economic resilience of the Nation's coasts. Defining baseline conditions, tracking effects of mitigation actions, and measuring the uncertainty of resilience to future disturbance are essential so that the best management practices can be determined. The US Dept. of the Interior invested over $787 million dollars in 2013 to understand and mitigate coastal storm vulnerabilities and enhance resilience of the Northeast coast following Super-Storm Sandy. Several lessons-learned from that investment have direct application to mitigation and restoration needs following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. New models of inundation, overwash, and erosion, developed during the Sandy projects have already been applied to coastlines before and after these recent storms. Results from wetland, beach, back-bay, estuary, and built-environment projects improved models of inundation and erosion from surge and waves. Tests of nature-based infrastructure for mitigating coastal disturbance yielded new concepts for best-practices. Ecological and socio-economic measurements established for detecting disturbance and tracking recovery provide baseline data critical to early detection of vulnerabilities. The Sandy lessons and preliminary applications on the recent storms could help define best-resilience practices before more costly mitigation or restoration efforts are required.

  8. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  9. Distribution of stable isotopes in arid storms . II. A double-component model of kinematic wave flow and transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakirevich, Alexander; Dody, Avraham; Adar, Eilon M.; Borisov, Viacheslav; Geyh, Mebus

    A new mathematical method based on a double-component model of kinematic wave flow and approach assesses the dynamic isotopic distribution in arid rain storms and runoff. This model describes the transport and δ18O evolution of rainfall to overland flow and runoff in an arid rocky watershed with uniformly distributed shallow depression storage. The problem was solved numerically. The model was calibrated using a set of temporal discharge and δ18O distribution data for rainfall and runoff collected on a small rocky watershed at the Sede Boker Experimental Site, Israel. Simulation of a reliable result with respect to observation was obtained after parameter adjustment by trial and error. Sensitivity analysis and model application were performed. The model is sensitive to changes in parameters characterizing the depression storage zones. The model reflects the effect of the isotopic memory in the water within the depression storage between sequential rain spells. The use of the double-component model of kinematic wave flow and transport provides an appropriate qualitative and quantitative fitting between computed and observed δ18O distribution in runoff. RésuméUne nouvelle méthode mathématique basée sur un modèle à double composante d'écoulement et de transport par une onde cinématique a été développée pour évaluer la distribution dynamique en isotopes dans les précipitations et dans l'écoulement en région aride. Ce modèle décrit le transport et les variations des δ18O de la pluie vers le ruissellement et l'écoulement de surface dans un bassin aride rocheux où le stockage se fait dans des dépressions peu profondes uniformément réparties. Le problème a été résolu numériquement. Le modèle a été calibré au moyen d'une chronique de débits et d'une distribution des δ18O dans la pluie et dans l'écoulement de surface sur un petit bassin versant rocheux du site expérimental de Sede Boker (Israël). La simulation d'un résultat cr

  10. Storm, rogue wave, or tsunami origin for megaclast deposits in western Ireland and North Island, New Zealand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, John F; Ryan, Paul D

    2017-12-12

    The origins of boulderite deposits are investigated with reference to the present-day foreshore of Annagh Head, NW Ireland, and the Lower Miocene Matheson Formation, New Zealand, to resolve disputes on their origin and to contrast and compare the deposits of tsunamis and storms. Field data indicate that the Matheson Formation, which contains boulders in excess of 140 tonnes, was produced by a 12- to 13-m-high tsunami with a period in the order of 1 h. The origin of the boulders at Annagh Head, which exceed 50 tonnes, is disputed. We combine oceanographic, historical, and field data to argue that this is a cliff-top storm deposit (CTSD). A numerical model for CTSDs is developed which indicates that boulder shape in addition to density and dimensions should be taken into account when applying hydrodynamic equations to such deposits. The model also predicts that the NE Atlantic storms are capable of producing boulderites that, when size alone is considered, cannot be distinguished from tsunamites. We review the characteristics that identify the origins of these two deposits.

  11. Multi-decadal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea: Observational evidence of early reef island recovery after the impact of storm waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Thomas; Westphal, Hildegard

    2016-03-01

    Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and other high-magnitude events are important steering mechanisms in the geomorphic development of coral reef islands. Sandy reef islands located outside the storm belts are strongly sensitive to the impact of occasional high-magnitude events and show abrupt, commonly erosive geomorphic change in response to such events. Based on the interpretation of remote sensing data, it is well known that the process of landform recovery might take several decades or even longer. However, despite the increasing amount of scientific attention towards short- and long-term island dynamics, the lack of data and models often prevent a robust analysis of the timing and nature of recovery initiation. Here we show how natural island recovery starts immediately after the impact of a high-magnitude event. We analyze multi-temporal shoreline changes on Takú Atoll, Papua New Guinea and combine our findings with a unique set of published field observations (Smithers and Hoeke, 2014). Trends of shoreline change since 1943 and changes in planform island area indicate a long-term accretionary mode for most islands. Apparent shoreline instability is detected for the last decade of analysis, however this can be explained by the impact of storm waves in December 2008 that (temporarily?) masked the long-term trend. The transition from negative to positive rates of change in the aftermath of this storm event is indicative of inherent negative feedback processes that counteract short-term changes in energy input and represent the initiation of island recovery. Collectively, our results support the concept of dynamic rather than static reef islands and clearly demonstrate how short-term processes can influence interpretations of medium-term change.

  12. Influence of Sea-Level Rise and Storms on Soil Accretion Rates in the Mangrove Forests of Everglades National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smoak, J. M.; Breithaupt, J.; Smith, T., III; Sanders, C. J.; Peterson, L. C.

    2014-12-01

    Mangrove forests provide a range of valuable ecosystem services including sequestering large quantities of organic carbon (OC) in their soils at rates higher than other forests. Whether or not mangrove soils continue to be a sink for OC will be determined by the mangrove ecosystems' response to climate change-induced stressors. The threats of rising sea level outpacing mangrove forest soil accretion and increased wave energy associated with this rise may become the primary climate change-induced stressors on mangrove ecosystems. The threat from wave energy is amplified during storm events, which could increasingly damage mangrove forests along the coastline. However, storms may enhance accretion rates at some sites due to delivery of storm surge material, which could increase the system's ability to keep pace with sea-level rise (SLR). To investigate these processes we measure soil accretion rates over the last 100 years (via 210Pb dating) within the mangrove forests of Everglades National Park, which are situated within the largest contiguous mangrove forest in North America. Accretion rates range from 2 to 2.8 mm per year for sites within 10 km of the Gulf of Mexico. These rates match (within error) or exceed SLR over the last 100 years. Sites farther inland than 10 km have slightly lower accretion rates. Throughout the system organic matter accumulation is the most important source material contributing to accretion. The more seaward sites also show an important contribution from carbonate material. Soil cores from the most seaward sites exhibited visual laminations and Ca peaks (determined via x-ray fluorescence). These are indicators of storm surge deposits. While higher sea level might produce more damage and loss of mangrove forest along open water (e.g., Gulf of Mexico), our findings suggest some sites will have enhanced accretion rates due to supplementation with storm surge material.

  13. Book review: Extreme ocean waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.

    2011-01-01

    ‘‘Extreme Ocean Waves’’ is a collection of ten papers edited by Efim Pelinovsky and Christian Kharif that followed the April 2007 meeting of the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union. A note on terminology: extreme waves in this volume broadly encompass different types of waves, includ- ing deep-water and shallow-water rogue waves (alternatively termed freak waves), storm surges from cyclones, and internal waves. Other types of waves such as tsunamis or rissaga (meteotsunamis) are not discussed in this volume. It is generally implied that ‘‘extreme’’ has a statistical connotation relative to the average or significant wave height specific to each type of wave. Throughout the book, in fact, the reader will find a combination of theoretical and statistical/ empirical treatment necessary for the complete examination of this subject. In the introduction, the editors underscore the importance of studying extreme waves, documenting several dramatic instances of damaging extreme waves that occurred in 2007. 

  14. Increasing Flood Risk due to Run-off Outflow near Estuarine City during Storm Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S.; Lee, C.; Do, K.; Jung, T.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclone easily causes inundation damage to low-lying coastal area and the damage may be amplified due to tide motion, sea-level rise, riverine discharges. Specifically, typhoons are accompanied by intensive rainfall, which will of course raise the river water level and thus enhance the flooding damages. If the tidal cycle coincides the high water, flooding will be even aggravated. In the present study, we simulated storm surge motions at the coastal area considering combined effects of tidal and river discharge with aim to improve the accuracy of flooding prediction. The quasi 3-dimension ocean circulation model, Delf3D was used which solves the unsteady shallow water equation in the 2D and 3D. Since Delft3D is much applicable to accommodate the indirect flooding factors such as riverine discharge and short waves, outer-coupled modeling system was established to account for combined tide-surge-riverine discharge effects. In such integrated system, 11 tidal constituents were input as open boundary condition using TPXO 7.2 model, while the water level per unit time was preliminary calculated by HEC-HMS model and input as the upstream boundary conditions for river inside the domain. Typhoon MAEMI which attacked Masan city located at southern coast of South Korea and caused severe inundation damages in 2003 was selected for the study event. Basic information for typhoon such as path, wind speed, atmospheric pressure every 3 hours was provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency and was adopted. The simulation was implemented with tide and storm surge boundary conditions focusing on the target area, Masan, while the additional consideration on the discharge of the river inside the domain was also made. Simulated water level at the fixed location was compared to the observation for its verification and the extent of inundation areas of Masan were compared between observed and calculated. The marginal contribution of riverine discharge on the flooding area

  15. Measuring changes in ambient noise levels from the installation and operation of a surge wave energy converter in the coastal ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haxel, Joe H [Oregon State Univ., Newport, OR (United States); Henkel, Sarah K [Oregon State Univ., Newport, OR (United States)

    2017-10-18

    Ecosystem impacts resulting from elevated underwater noise levels generated by anthropogenic activities in the coastal ocean are poorly understood and remain difficult to address as a result of a significant gap in knowledge for existing nearshore sound levels. Ambient noise is an important habitat component for marine mammals and fish that use sound for essential functions such as communication, navigation, and foraging. Questions surrounding the amplitudes, frequency distributions, and durations of noise emissions from renewable wave energy conversion (WEC) projects during their construction and operation present concerns for long-term consequences in marine habitats. Oregon’s dynamic nearshore environment presents significant challenges for passive acoustic monitoring that include flow noise contamination from wave orbital motions, turbulence from breaking surf, equipment burial, and fishing pressure from sport and commercial crabbers. This project included 2 techniques for passive acoustic data collection: 1) campaign style deployments of fixed hydrophone lander stations to capture temporal variations in noise levels and 2) a drifting hydrophone system to record spatial variations within the project site. The hydrophone lander deployments were effective and economically feasible for enabling robust temporal measurements of ambient noise levels in a variety of sea state conditions. Limiting factors for the fixed stations included 1) a flow shield mitigation strategy failure in the first deployment resulting in significant wideband data contamination and 2) flow noise contamination of the unshielded sensors restricting valuable analysis to frequencies above 500 Hz for subsequent deployments. Drifting hydrophone measurements were also effective and economically feasible (although logistically challenging in the beginning of the project due to vessel time constraints) providing a spatial distribution of sound levels, comparisons of noise levels in varying levels

  16. Surge-damping vacuum valve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullock, J.C.; Kelley, B.E.

    1977-01-01

    A valve for damping out flow surges in a vacuum system is described. The surge-damping mechanism consists of a slotted, spring-loaded disk adjacent to the valve's vacuum port (the flow passage to the vacuum roughing pump). Under flow surge conditions, the differential pressure forces the disk into a sealing engagement with the vacuum port, thereby restricting the gas flow path to narrow slots in the disk's periphery. The increased flow damps out the flow surge. When pressure is equalized on both sides of the valve, the spring load moves the disk away from the port to restore full flow conductance through the valve

  17. Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness

  18. The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

  19. Catalogue of extreme wave events in Ireland: revised and updated for 14 680 BP to 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Laura; Renzi, Emiliano; Dudley, John M.; Clancy, Colm; Dias, Frédéric

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to extend and update the survey of extreme wave events in Ireland that was previously carried out by O'Brien et al. (2013). The original catalogue highlighted the frequency of such events dating back as far as the turn of the last ice age and as recent as 2012. Ireland's marine territory extends far beyond its coastline and is one of the largest seabed territories in Europe. It is therefore not surprising that extreme waves have continued to occur regularly since 2012, particularly considering the severity of weather during the winters of 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. In addition, a large number of storm surges have been identified since the publication of the original catalogue. This paper updates the O'Brien et al. (2013) catalogue to include events up to the end of 2017. Storm surges are included as a new category and events are categorised into long waves (tsunamis and storm surges) and short waves (storm and rogue waves). New results prior to 2012 are also included and some of the events previously documented are reclassified. Important questions regarding public safety, services and the influence of climate change are also highlighted. An interactive map has been created to allow the reader to navigate through events: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19cZ59pDHfDnXKYIziYAVWV6AfoE&usp=sharing" target="_blank">https://drive.google.com/open?id=19cZ59pDHfDnXKYIziYAVWV6AfoE&usp=sharing.

  20. Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Integration for Storm Surge Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2013-01-01

    of the Northeast Australia, we have investigated several large cyclones causing much destruction when they hit the coast. One of these being the Cyclone Larry, which hit the Queensland coast in March 2006 and caused both losses of lives as well as huge devastation. Here we demonstrate the importance of integrating...

  1. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  2. Electrodynamics properties of auroral surges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, R.M.; Vondrak, R.R.

    1990-01-01

    The incoherent scatter radar technique provides an excellent means to study the ionization and electric fields associated with auroral precipitation events. One of the most intense and dynamic auroral events is the so-called surge or breakup aurora that accompanies auroral substorms. For their purposes they define a surge as a transient intensification of auroral precipitation that occurs simultaneously with a pronounced negative bay in the ground magnetometer data. They present data obtained during five such events in 1980 and 1981. Prior to the surge, auroral forms move equatorward, develop ray structure, and intensify. The surge is identified by an apparent poleward motion of the aurora producing aurorally associated ionization that extends over several hundred kilometers in latitude. The presurge auroral forms are embedded in a region of northward electric field. The auroral forms that comprise the surge span a region within which the meridional electric field is small and at times southward. A westward electric field is often but not always present within the surge. The behavior of the westward electric field is significantly different from the north-south field, in that sharp spatial gradients are absent even in very disturbed conditions. Although the westward Hall currents are mostly responsible for the negative bays that accompany the surge, at times the westward Pedersen current sustained by the westward electric field can be important. Sudden variations in the H component of the ground magnetogram can be caused by motions of the aurora or by temporal variations in the fields or conductivities. They present a model that simulates the observed changes in electric field and precipitation that accompany surges. The perturbation in the electric field produced by the surge is simulated by adding negative potential in regions of intense precipitation

  3. Solar storms; Tormentas solares

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collaboration: Pereira Cuesta, S.; Pereira Pagan, B.

    2016-08-01

    Solar storms begin with an explosion, or solar flare, on the surface of the sun. The X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare reach the Earths orbit minutes later-travelling at light speed. The ionization of upper layers of our atmosphere could cause radio blackouts and satellite navigation errors (GPS). Soon after, a wave of energetic particles, electrons and protons accelerated by the explosion crosses the orbit of the Earth, and can cause real and significant damage. (Author)

  4. Measuring storm tide and high-water marks caused by Hurricane Sandy in New York: Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Amy E.; Behrens, Riley

    2015-01-01

    In response to Hurricane Sandy, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary network of storm-tide sensors from Virginia to Maine. During the storm, real-time water levels were available from tide gages and rapid-deployment gages (RDGs). After the storm, USGS scientists retrieved the storm-tide sensors and RDGs and surveyed high-water marks. These data demonstrate that the timing of peak storm surge relative to astronomical tide was extremely important in southeastern New York. For example, along the south shores of New York City and western Suffolk County, the peak storm surge of 6–9 ft generally coincided with the astronomical high tide, which resulted in substantial coastal flooding. In the Peconic Estuary and northern Nassau County, however, the peak storm surge of 9 ft and nearly 12 ft, respectively, nearly coincided with normal low tide, which helped spare these communities from more severe coastal flooding.

  5. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  6. Observations of Building Performance under Combined Wind and Surge Loading from Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, F.; Roueche, D. B.; Krupar, R. J.; Smith, D. J.; Soto, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coastline on August 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane to reach the US in twelve years. Wind gusts over 130 mph and storm surge as high as 12.5 ft caused widespread damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in coastal communities including Rockport, Fulton, Port Aransas and Aransas Pass. This study presents the methodology and preliminary observations of a coordinated response effort to document residential building performance under wind and storm surge loading. Over a twelve day survey period the study team assessed the performance of more than 1,000 individual, geo-located residential buildings. Assessments were logged via a smartphone application to facilitate rapid collection and collation of geotagged photographs, building attributes and structural details, and structural damage observations. Detailed assessments were also made of hazard intensity, specifically storm surge heights and both wind speed and direction indicators. Preliminary observations and findings will be presented, showing strong gradients in damage between inland and coastal regions of the affected areas that may be due in part to enhanced individual loading effects of wind and storm surge and potentially joint-hazard loading effects. Contributing factors to the many cases of disproportionate damage observed in close proximity will also be discussed. Ongoing efforts to relate building damage to near-surface hazard measurements (e.g., radar, anemometry) in close proximity will also be described.

  7. Geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNamara, A.G.

    1980-01-01

    Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms can affect the functioning of communications satellites and of power lines and other long conductors. Two general classes of geomagnetic activity can be distinguished: ionospheric current flow (the auroral electrojet), and magnetospheric compression. Super magnetic storms, such as the one of August 1972, can occur at any time and average about 17 occurrences per century. Electrical transmission systems can be made more tolerant of such events at a price, but the most effective way to minimize damage is by better operator training coupled with effective early warning systems. (LL)

  8. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  9. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  10. Emergency department surge: models and practical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nager, Alan L; Khanna, Kajal

    2009-08-01

    Emergency Department crowding has long been described. Despite the daily challenges of managing emergency department volume and acuity; a surge response during a disaster entails even greater challenges including collaboration, intervention, and resourcefulness to effectively carry out pediatric disaster management. Understanding surge and how to respond with appropriate planning will lead to success. To achieve this, we sought to analyze models of surge; review regional and national data outlining surge challenges and factors that impact surge; and to outline potential solutions. We conducted a systemic review and included articles and documents that best described the theoretical and practical basis of surge response. We organized the systematic review according to the following questions: What are the elements and models that are delineated by the concept of surge? What is the basis for surge response based on regional and national published sources? What are the broad global solutions? What are the major lessons observed that will impact effective surge capacity? Multiple models of surge are described including public health, facility-based and community-based; a 6-tiered response system; and intrinsic or extrinsic surge capacity. In addition, essential components (4 S's of surge response) are described along with regional and national data outlining surge challenges, impacting factors, global solutions, and lesions observed. There are numerous shortcomings regionally and nationally affecting our ability to provide an effective and coordinated surge response. Planning, education, and training will lead to an effective pediatric disaster management response.

  11. Decadal-scale variation in dune erosion and accretion rates: An investigation of the significance of changing storm tide frequency and magnitude on the Sefton coast, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pye, K.; Blott, S. J.

    2008-12-01

    Monitoring of frontal dune erosion and accretion on the Sefton coast in northwest England over the past 50 years has revealed significant spatial and temporal variations. Previous work has shown that the spatial variations primarily reflect longshore differences in beach and nearshore morphology, energy regime and sediment budget, but the causes of temporal variations have not previously been studied in detail. This paper presents the results of work carried out to test the hypothesis that a major cause of temporal variation is changes in the frequency and magnitude of storms, surges and resulting high tides. Dune toe erosion/accretion records dating from 1958 have been compared with tide gauge records at Liverpool and Heysham. Relatively high dune erosion rates at Formby Point 1958-1968 were associated with a relatively large number of storm tides. Slower erosion at Formby, and relatively rapid accretion in areas to the north and south, occurred during the 1970's and 1980's when there were relatively few major storm tides. After 1990 rates of dune erosion at Formby increased again, and dunes to the north and south experienced slower accretion. During this period high storm tides have been more frequent, and the annual number of hours with water levels above the critical level for dune erosion has increased significantly. An increase in the rate of mean sea-level rise at both Liverpool and Heysham is evident since 1990, but we conclude that this factor is of less importance than the occurrence of extreme high tides and wave action associated with storms. The incidence of extreme high tides shows an identifiable relationship with the lunar nodal tidal cycle, but the evidence indicates that meteorological forcing has also had a significant effect. Storms and surges in the eastern Irish Sea are associated with Atlantic depressions whose direction and rate of movement have a strong influence on wind speeds, wave energy and the height of surge tides. However

  12. Noise storm coordinated observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elgaroey, Oe.; Tlamicha, A.

    1983-01-01

    The usually accepted bipolar model of noise storm centers is irrelevant for the present observations. An alternative model has been proposed in which the different sources of a noise storm center are located in different flux tubes connecting active regions with their surroundings. Radio emission is observed from the wide, descending branch of the flux tubes, opposite to the flaring site. The relation between the sense of circular polarization of the radio emission and the magnetic polarity, has been more precisely defined. The radiation is in the ordinary mode with respect to the underlying large scale photospheric magnetic polarity. Thus the ''irregular'' polarity of noice storm center ''B'' is explained. As regards center ''C'', one should note that although the observed radio emission is polarized in the ordinary mode with respect to the leading spot of region HR 17653, center ''C'' is not situated in flux tubes originating from the leading part of this region according to the proposed model. Rather, the radio sources are located in the wide and descending part of flux tubes connecting a large, quiet area of south magnetic polarity with the following part of the region HR 17653 (of north magnetic polarity). Thus it is the polarity of the extended area which determines the polarization of the radio emission. The observed polarization should result rather from the emission process than from complicated conditions of propagation for the radio waves

  13. Observation and modeling of the evolution of an ephemeral storm-induced inlet: Pea Island Breach, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez Montoya, Liliana; Sciaudone, Elizabeth J.; Mitasova, Helena; Overton, Margery F.

    2018-03-01

    The Outer Banks of North Carolina is a wave-dominated barrier island system that has experienced the opening and closure of numerous inlets in the last four centuries. The most recent of those inlets formed after the breaching of Pea Island during Hurricane Irene in 2011. The Pea Island Breach experienced a rapid evolution including episodic curvature of the main channel, rotation of the ebb channel, shoaling, widening by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, and finally closing before the summer of 2013. Studying the life cycle of Pea Island Breach contributes to understanding the behavior of ephemeral inlets in breaching-prone regions. This topic has gained relevance due to rising sea levels, a phenomenon that increases the chances of ephemeral inlet formation during extreme events. This study explores the spatiotemporal effects of tides, waves, and storms on flow velocities and morphology of the breach by means of remotely sensed data, geospatial metrics, and a numerical model. The combined use of observations and results from modeling experiments allowed building a conceptual model to explain the life cycle of Pea Island Breach. Wave seasonality dominated the morphological evolution of the inlet by controlling the magnitude and direction of the longshore current that continuously built transient spits at both sides of the breach. Sensitivity analysis to external forcings indicates that ocean waves can modify water levels and velocities in the back barrier. Sound-side storm surge regulates overall growth rate, duration, and decay of peak water levels entering the inlet during extreme events.

  14. A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

  15. [Electrical storm].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnay, C; Taieb, J; Morice, R

    2007-11-01

    Electrical storm is defined as repeated occurrence of severe ventricular arrhythmias requiring multiple cardioversions, two or more or three or more following different studies. The clinical aspect can sometimes be made of multiple, self aggravating, life threatening accesses. There are three main clinical circumstances of occurrence: in patients equipped with intracardiac defibrillators, during the acute phase of myocardial infarction and in Brugada syndrome. 10 to 15% of patients with cardiac defibrillators are subject to electrical storms in a period of two years. The causative arrhythmia is most often ventricular tachycardia than ventricular fibrillation, especially in secondary prevention and if the initial arrhythmias justifying the device was a ventricular tachycardia. Precipitaing factors are present in one third of cases, mainly acute heart failure, ionic disorders and arrhythmogenic drugs. Predictive factors are age, left ventricular ejection fractionelectrical shock in 50% of cases, antitachycardi stimulation in 30% and in 20% by association of the two. Treatment, after elimination of inappropriate shocks, is mainly based on beta-blockers and amiodarone, class I antiarrhythmics, lidocaïne or bretylium in some cases, and sedation pushed to general anesthesia in some cases. Radio-frequency ablation and even heart transplantation have been proposed in extreme cases. Quinidine has been proved efficient in cases of Brugada syndrome.

  16. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  17. Report on Damage in Storm 05.01.08

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Jens Peter; Friis-Madsen, Erik; Christensen, Lars

    The report describes a number of observations at the energy converter Wave Dragon, Nissum Bredning, during the storm on January 8th 2005.......The report describes a number of observations at the energy converter Wave Dragon, Nissum Bredning, during the storm on January 8th 2005....

  18. Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

    2017-12-01

    HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively

  19. Hurricane Rita surge data, southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas, September to November 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Goree, Burl B.; Tollett, Roland W.; Woodward, Brenda K.; Kress, Wade H.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network consisting of 47 pressure transducers (sensors) was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast. Quality-assurance measures were used to assess the variability and accuracy of the water-level data recorded by the sensors. Water-level data from sensors were similar to data from co-located sensors, permanent U.S. Geological Survey streamgages, and water-surface elevations performed by field staff. Water-level data from sensors at selected locations were compared to corresponding high-water mark elevations. In general, the water-level data from sensors were similar to elevations of high quality high-water marks, while reporting consistently higher than elevations of lesser quality high-water marks.

  20. Assessment of water pipes durability under pressure surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham Ha, Hai; Minh, Lanh Pham Thi; Tang Van, Lam; Bulgakov, Boris; Bazhenova, Soafia

    2017-10-01

    Surge phenomenon occurs on the pipeline by the closing valve or pump suddenly lost power. Due to the complexity of the water hammer simulation, previous researches have only considered water hammer on the single pipe or calculation of some positions on water pipe network, it have not been analysis for all of pipe on the water distribution systems. Simulation of water hammer due to closing valve on water distribution system and the influence level of pressure surge is evaluated at the defects on pipe. Water hammer on water supply pipe network are simulated by Water HAMMER software academic version and the capacity of defects are calculated by SINTAP. SINTAP developed from Brite-Euram projects in Brussels-Belgium with the aim to develop a process for assessing the integrity of the structure for the European industry. Based on the principle of mechanical fault, indicating the size of defects in materials affect the load capacity of the product in the course of work, the process has proposed setting up the diagram to fatigue assessment defect (FAD). The methods are applied for water pipe networks of Lien Chieu district, Da Nang city, Viet Nam, the results show the affected area of wave pressure by closing the valve and thereby assess the greatest pressure surge effect to corroded pipe. The SINTAP standard and finite element mesh analysis at the defect during the occurrence of pressure surge which will accurately assess the bearing capacity of the old pipes. This is one of the bases to predict the leakage locations on the water distribution systems. Amount of water hammer when identified on the water supply networks are decreasing due to local losses at the nodes as well as the friction with pipe wall, so this paper adequately simulate water hammer phenomena applying for actual water distribution systems. The research verified that pipe wall with defect is damaged under the pressure surge value.

  1. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  2. Relative role of subinertial and superinertial modes in the coastal long wave response forced by the landfall of a tropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Ziming; Yankovsky, Alexander E.

    2011-06-01

    A set of numerical experiments has been performed in order to analyze the long-wave response of the coastal ocean to a translating mesoscale atmospheric cyclone approaching the coastline at a normal angle. An idealized two-slope shelf topography is chosen. The model is forced by a radially symmetric atmospheric pressure perturbation with a corresponding gradient wind field. The cyclone's translation speed, radius, and the continental shelf width are considered as parameters whose impact on the long wave period, modal structure, and amplitude is studied. Subinertial continental shelf waves (CSW) dominate the response under typical forcing conditions and on the narrower shelves. They propagate in the downstream (in the sense of Kelvin wave propagation) direction. Superinertial edge wave modes have higher free surface amplitudes and faster phase speeds than the CSW modes. While potentially more dangerous, edge waves are not as common as subinertial shelf waves because their generation requires a wide, gently sloping shelf and a storm system translating at a relatively high (˜10 m s -1 or faster) speed. A relatively smaller size of an atmospheric cyclone also favors edge wave generation. Edge waves with the highest amplitude (up to 60% of the forced storm surge) propagate upstream. They are produced by a storm system with an Eulerian time scale equal to the period of a zero-mode edge wave with the wavelength of the storm spatial scale. Large amplitude edge waves were generated during Hurricane Wilma's landfall (2005) on the West Florida shelf with particularly severe flooding occurring upstream of the landfall site.

  3. Hindicast and forecast of the Parsifal storm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertotti, L.; Cavaleri, L. [Istituto Studio Dinamica Grandi Masse, Venice (Italy); De girolamo, P.; Magnaldi, S. [Rome, Univ. `La Sapienza` (Italy). Dip. di Idraulica, Trasporti e Strade; Franco, L. [Rome, III Univ. (Italy). Dip. di Scienze dell`Ingegneria Civile

    1998-05-01

    On 2 November 1995 a Mistral storm in the Gulf of Lions sank the 16 metre yacht Parsifal claiming six lives out of the nine member crew. The authors analyse the storm with different meteorological and wave models, verifying the results against the available buoy and satellite measurements. Then the authors consider the accuracy of the storm forecasts and the information available the days before the accident. The limitations related to the resolution of the meteorological models are explored by hind casting the storm also with the winds produced by some limited area models. Finally, the authors discuss the present situation of wind and wave hind cast and forecast in the Mediterranean Sea, and the distribution of these results to the public.

  4. Impacts of wave-induced circulation in the surf zone on wave setup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guérin, Thomas; Bertin, Xavier; Coulombier, Thibault; de Bakker, Anouk

    2018-03-01

    Wave setup corresponds to the increase in mean water level along the coast associated with the breaking of short-waves and is of key importance for coastal dynamics, as it contributes to storm surges and the generation of undertows. Although overall well explained by the divergence of the momentum flux associated with short waves in the surf zone, several studies reported substantial underestimations along the coastline. This paper investigates the impacts of the wave-induced circulation that takes place in the surf zone on wave setup, based on the analysis of 3D modelling results. A 3D phase-averaged modelling system using a vortex force formalism is applied to hindcast an unpublished field experiment, carried out at a dissipative beach under moderate to very energetic wave conditions (Hm 0 = 6m at breaking and Tp = 22s). When using an adaptive wave breaking parameterisation based on the beach slope, model predictions for water levels, short waves and undertows improved by about 30%, with errors reducing to 0.10 m, 0.10 m and 0.09 m/s, respectively. The analysis of model results suggests a very limited impact of the vertical circulation on wave setup at this dissipative beach. When extending this analysis to idealized simulations for different beach slopes ranging from 0.01 to 0.05, it shows that the contribution of the vertical circulation (horizontal and vertical advection and vertical viscosity terms) becomes more and more relevant as the beach slope increases. In contrast, for a given beach slope, the wave height at the breaking point has a limited impact on the relative contribution of the vertical circulation on the wave setup. For a slope of 0.05, the contribution of the terms associated with the vertical circulation accounts for up to 17% (i.e. a 20% increase) of the total setup at the shoreline, which provides a new explanation for the underestimations reported in previously published studies.

  5. NCDC Storm Events Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  6. Using Bayesian Network as a tool for coastal storm flood impact prediction at Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya; Prodanov, Bogdan

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is among the fastest evolving areas worldwide. Ever increasing population inhabiting coastal settlements develops often conflicting economic and societal activities. The existing imbalance between the expansion of these activities, on one hand, and the potential to accommodate them in a sustainable manner, on the other, becomes a critical problem. Concurrently, coasts are affected by various hydro-meteorological phenomena such as storm surges, heavy seas, strong winds and flash floods, which intensities and occurrence frequency is likely to increase due to the climate change. This implies elaboration of tools capable of quick prediction of impact of those phenomena on the coast and providing solutions in terms of disaster risk reduction measures. One such tool is Bayesian network. Proposed paper describes the set-up of such network for Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea). It relates near-shore storm conditions to their onshore flood potential and ultimately to relevant impact as relative damage on coastal and manmade environment. Methodology for set-up and training of the Bayesian network was developed within RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). Proposed BN reflects the interaction between boundary conditions, receptors, hazard, and consequences. Storm boundary conditions - maximum significant wave height and peak surge level, were determined on the basis of their historical and projected occurrence. The only hazard considered in this study is flooding characterized by maximum inundation depth. BN was trained with synthetic events created by combining estimated boundary conditions. Flood impact was modeled with the process-based morphodynamical model XBeach. Restaurants, sport and leisure facilities, administrative buildings, and car parks were introduced in the network as receptors. Consequences (impact) are estimated in terms of relative damage caused by given inundation depth. National depth

  7. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  8. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  9. The effects of storms and storm-generated currents on sand beaches in Southern Maine, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, H.W.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.; Dickson, S.M.

    2004-01-01

    Storms are one of the most important controls on the cycle of erosion and accretion on beaches. Current meters placed in shoreface locations of Saco Bay and Wells Embayment, ME, recorded bottom currents during the winter months of 2000 and 2001, while teams of volunteers profiled the topography of nearby beaches. Coupling offshore meteorological and beach profile data made it possible to determine the response of nine beaches in southern Maine to various oceanographic and meteorological conditions. The beaches selected for profiling ranged from pristine to completely developed and permitted further examination of the role of seawalls on the response of beaches to storms. Current meters documented three unique types of storms: frontal passages, southwest storms, and northeast storms. In general, the current meter results indicate that frontal passages and southwest storms were responsible for bringing sediment towards the shore, while northeast storms resulted in a net movement of sediment away from the beach. During the 1999-2000 winter, there were a greater percentage of frontal passages and southwest storms, while during the 2000-2001 winter, there were more northeast storms. The sediment that was transported landward during the 1999-2000 winter was reworked into the berm along moderately and highly developed beaches during the next summer. A northeast storm on March 5-6, 2001, resulted in currents in excess of 1 m s-1 and wave heights that reached six meters. The storm persisted over 10 high tides and caused coastal flooding and property damage. Topographic profiles made before and after the storm demonstrate that developed beaches experienced a loss of sediment volume during the storm, while sediment was redistributed along the profile on moderately developed and undeveloped beaches. Two months after the storm, the profiles along the developed beaches had not reached their pre-storm elevation. In comparison, the moderately developed and undeveloped beaches

  10. Wave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ibsen, Lars Bo

    2008-01-01

    Estimates for the amount of potential wave energy in the world range from 1-10 TW. The World Energy Council estimates that a potential 2TW of energy is available from the world’s oceans, which is the equivalent of twice the world’s electricity production. Whilst the recoverable resource is many...... times smaller it remains very high. For example, whilst there is enough potential wave power off the UK to supply the electricity demands several times over, the economically recoverable resource for the UK is estimated at 25% of current demand; a lot less, but a very substantial amount nonetheless....

  11. Validation of a surge model by full scale testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeulers, J.P.M.; Slot, H.J.; Meulendijks, D.

    2011-01-01

    Surge of turbo compressors can cause large stepwise changes in flow and pressure, which can potentially damage the compressor and any equipment that is in direct connection with the compressor. Surge is usually avoided by an anti surge controller (ASC). However, in spite of the ASC surge cycles may

  12. Validation of a surge model by full scale testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slot, H.J.; Meulendijks, D.; Smeulers, J.P.M.

    2009-01-01

    Surge of turbo compressors can cause large stepwise changes in flow and pressure, which can potentially damage the compressor and any equipment that is in direct connection with the compressor. Surge is usually avoided by an anti surge controller (ASC). However, in spite of the ASC surge cycles may

  13. Storm impacts on small barrier islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroon, Aart; Fruergaard, Mikkel

    The shorelines of the Baltic Sea and the inner coastal waters in Denmark consist of many barrier islands. These sandy barrier islands were mainly formed in the Holocene and are still very dynamic. The present day changes in the morphology are dominantly governed by storm waves and associated high...

  14. Application of State of the Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for a Coastal Area within a Protected Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure from storm surge sand associated waves in the coastal zone. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation and construction standards for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and a comparison with the results of 2013 FIRM mapping are presented for Warwick, Rhode Island (RI, a coastal community located within Narragansett Bay. Because of its location, Warwick is protected from significant coastal erosion and wave attacks, but is subject to surge amplification. Concerns surrounding the FEMA methods used in the 2013 FIRM analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling, and data analysis methods, to address the NRC concerns. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. This new approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS, 2015. Revised flooding maps are presented and compared to the 2013 FIRM maps, to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of surge dynamics and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional, wave transformation models.

  15. Volume-based characterization of postocclusion surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacharias, Jaime; Zacharias, Sergio

    2005-10-01

    To propose an alternative method to characterize postocclusion surge using a collapsible artificial anterior chamber to replace the currently used rigid anterior chamber model. Fundación Oftamológica Los Andes, Santiago, Chile. The distal end of a phacoemulsification handpiece was placed inside a compliant artificial anterior chamber. Digital recordings of chamber pressure, chamber volume, inflow, and outflow were performed during occlusion break of the phacoemulsification tip. The occlusion break profile of 2 different consoles was compared. Occlusion break while using a rigid anterior chamber model produced a simultaneous increase of chamber inflow and outflow. In the rigid chamber model, pressure decreased sharply, reaching negative pressure values. Alternatively, with the collapsible chamber model, a delay was observed in the inflow that occurs to compensate the outflow surge. Also, the chamber pressure drop was smaller in magnitude, never undershooting below atmospheric pressure into negative values. Using 500 mm Hg as vacuum limit, the Infiniti System (Alcon) performed better that the Legacy (Alcon), showing an 18% reduction in peak volume variation. The collapsible anterior chamber model provides a more realistic representation of the postocclusion surge events that occur in the real eye during cataract surgery. Peak volume fluctuation (mL), half volume recovery time(s), and volume fluctuation integral value (mL x s) are proposed as realistic indicators to characterize the postocclusion surge performance. These indicators show that the Infiniti System has a better postocclusion surge behavior than the Legacy System.

  16. Observations of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves forced by Extratropical Wave Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiladis, G. N.; Biello, J. A.; Straub, K. H.

    2012-12-01

    It is well established by observations that deep tropical convection can in certain situations be forced by extratropical Rossby wave activity. Such interactions are a well-known feature of regions of upper level westerly flow, and in particular where westerlies and equatorward wave guiding by the basic state occur at low enough latitudes to interact with tropical and subtropical moisture sources. In these regions convection is commonly initiated ahead of upper level troughs, characteristic of forcing by quasi-geostrophic dynamics. However, recent observational evidence indicates that extratropical wave activity is also associated with equatorial convection even in regions where there is a "critical line" to Rossby wave propagation at upper levels, that is, where the zonal phase speed of the wave is equal to the zonal flow speed. A common manifestation of this type of interaction involves the initiation of convectively coupled Kelvin waves, as well as mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves. These waves are responsible for a large portion of the convective variability within the ITCZ over the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic sectors, as well as within the Amazon Basin of South America. For example, Kelvin waves originating within the western Pacific ITCZ are often triggered by Rossby wave activity propagating into the Australasian region from the South Indian Ocean extratropics. At other times, Kelvin waves are seen to originate along the eastern slope of the Andes. In the latter case the initial forcing is sometimes linked to a low-level "pressure surge," initiated by wave activity propagating equatorward from the South Pacific storm track. In yet other cases, such as over Africa, the forcing appears to be related to wave activity in the extratropics which is not necessarily propagating into low latitudes, but appears to "project" onto the Kelvin structure, in line with past theoretical and modeling studies. Observational evidence for extratropical forcing of Kelvin and MRG

  17. Ionosphere and thermosphere responses during August 1972 storms - a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsushita, S.

    1976-01-01

    Various reports of ionospheric responses during the August 1972 storm events are reviewed with respect to the phenomena in three major world sectors, N-S America, Afro-Europe, and Austro-Asia, in order to have a global picture. Emphasized highlights are (1) extensive investigation of the sudden increase of the total electron content estimated from Faraday-rotation measurements of satellite signals; (2) a dramatic upward surge above 300 km latitude, soon after a flare, measured by the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar; (3) electron density profiles, electric fields and conductivities, and neutral winds, at the time of the geomagnetic storm sudden commencement and during the succeeding storms, measured by the Chatanika incoherent scatter radar; and, (4) approximately 2.5-h oscillatory F2 density variations in Eastern Asia during the F2 storm main phase. To show temporal variations of the latitudinal distributions of storm-time F2 electron densities, in three longitudinal sectors separated about 60 0 longitude each, newly investigated results of the F2 hourly data at 35 stations in the Asia-Australia-Pacific sector are then exhibited. Finally, current theories or at least theoretical ideas of ionospheric storm mechanisms are briefly introduced, and a few remarks on the August events in the light of those theories are presented. (Auth.)

  18. Design of the Wave Dragon Mooring System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano

    with experimental data, derived from tank tests of the 2nd generation scaled model of the device. In phase 2 further tank testing has been carried out on a novel 3rd generation scaled model to assess the design loads in the mooring system and the extreme response of the device in surge, heave and pitch to extreme...... storm conditions typical of the DanWEC location. The most desirable mooring configuration has also been better defined in terms of horizontal compliance. In phase 3 results from phase 1 shall be used to setup a numerical model for time-domain analysis of the composite system Wave Dragon + moorings......This report is part of the project “Wave Dragon 1.5 MW North Sea Demonstrator”, funded by the Danish Energy Agency under the EUDP program (J.no. 64010-0405). In phase 1 of the project the hydrodynamic characterization of Wave Dragon was carried out through numerical analysis with a model calibrated...

  19. Nippon Storm Study design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Kurita

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available An understanding of the clinical aspects of electrical storm (E-storms in patients with implantable cardiac shock devices (ICSDs: ICDs or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator [CRT-D] may provide important information for clinical management of patients with ICSDs. The Nippon Storm Study was organized by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS and Japanese Society of Electrocardiology and was designed to prospectively collect a variety of data from patients with ICSDs, with a focus on the incidence of E-storms and clinical conditions for the occurrence of an E-storm. Forty main ICSD centers in Japan are participating in the present study. From 2002, the JHRS began to collect ICSD patient data using website registration (termed Japanese cardiac defibrillator therapy registration, or JCDTR. This investigation aims to collect data on and investigate the general parameters of patients with ICSDs, such as clinical backgrounds of the patients, purposes of implantation, complications during the implantation procedure, and incidence of appropriate and inappropriate therapies from the ICSD. The Nippon Storm Study was planned as a sub-study of the JCDTR with focus on E-storms. We aim to achieve registration of more than 1000 ICSD patients and complete follow-up data collection, with the assumption of a 5–10% incidence of E-storms during the 2-year follow-up.

  20. Assessing storm erosion hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

  1. Influence of Surge Motion on the Probability of Parametric Roll in a Stationary Sea State

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    2007-01-01

    A typical parametric roll scenario for a ship in head waves implies that the roll motion is coupled with vertical motion of the vessel. The added resistance of the ship is increased when the bow pitches down in a wave crest. As a consequence, the ship speed is slowed down and, hence, the roll...... resonance condition might be changed. In an attempt to study the influence of this speed variation in waves on parametric roll, the procedure for estimation of probability of parametric roll by Jensen and Pedersen (2006) has been extended to account for the surge motion of the vessel....

  2. Exercising Tactically for Taming Postmeal Glucose Surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacko, Elsamma

    2016-01-01

    This review seeks to synthesize data on the timing, intensity, and duration of exercise found scattered over some 39 studies spanning 3+ decades into optimal exercise conditions for controlling postmeal glucose surges. The results show that a light aerobic exercise for 60 min or moderate activity for 20-30 min starting 30 min after meal can efficiently blunt the glucose surge, with minimal risk of hypoglycemia. Exercising at other times could lead to glucose elevation caused by counterregulation. Adding a short bout of resistance exercise of moderate intensity (60%-80%  VO2max) to the aerobic activity, 2 or 3 times a week as recommended by the current guidelines, may also help with the lowering of glucose surges. On the other hand, high-intensity exercise (>80%  VO2max) causes wide glucose fluctuations and its feasibility and efficacy for glucose regulation remain to be ascertained. Promoting the kind of physical activity that best counters postmeal hyperglycemia is crucial because hundreds of millions of diabetes patients living in developing countries and in the pockets of poverty in the West must do without medicines, supplies, and special diets. Physical activity is the one tool they may readily utilize to tame postmeal glucose surges. Exercising in this manner does not violate any of the current guidelines, which encourage exercise any time.

  3. Exercising Tactically for Taming Postmeal Glucose Surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elsamma Chacko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This review seeks to synthesize data on the timing, intensity, and duration of exercise found scattered over some 39 studies spanning 3+ decades into optimal exercise conditions for controlling postmeal glucose surges. The results show that a light aerobic exercise for 60 min or moderate activity for 20–30 min starting 30 min after meal can efficiently blunt the glucose surge, with minimal risk of hypoglycemia. Exercising at other times could lead to glucose elevation caused by counterregulation. Adding a short bout of resistance exercise of moderate intensity (60%–80%  VO2max to the aerobic activity, 2 or 3 times a week as recommended by the current guidelines, may also help with the lowering of glucose surges. On the other hand, high-intensity exercise (>80%  VO2max causes wide glucose fluctuations and its feasibility and efficacy for glucose regulation remain to be ascertained. Promoting the kind of physical activity that best counters postmeal hyperglycemia is crucial because hundreds of millions of diabetes patients living in developing countries and in the pockets of poverty in the West must do without medicines, supplies, and special diets. Physical activity is the one tool they may readily utilize to tame postmeal glucose surges. Exercising in this manner does not violate any of the current guidelines, which encourage exercise any time.

  4. The dynamics of surge in compression systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    is of interest to study compression-system surge to understand its dynamics in order ... Internal problems like compressor going into rotating stall, resulting in loss of ... of water column, was used for mass-flow measurement at the impeller entry.

  5. Positive feedback stabilization of centrifugal compressor surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, Frank; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; de Jager, Bram; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij

    Stable operation of axial and centrifugal compressors is limited towards low mass flows due to the occurrence of surge. The stable operating region can be enlarged by active control. In this study, we use a control valve which is fully closed in the desired operating point and only opens to

  6. Positive feedback stabilization of centrifugal compressor surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, F.P.T.; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Jager, de A.G.; Stoorvogel, A.A.

    2002-01-01

    Stable operation of axial and centrifugal compressors is limited towards low mass flows due to the occurrence of surge. The stable operating region can be enlarged by active control. In this study, we use a control valve which is fully closed in the desired operating point and only opens to

  7. Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

    2012-01-01

    The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  8. SLR-induced changes on storm flooding in coastal areas: the role of accommodation space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, Jose A.; Dockx, Stijn; Monbaliu, Jaak

    2015-04-01

    Most of existing predictions of climate-induce changes in coastal storminess in the Mediterranean indicate the absence of any significant increasing trend in neither wave height nor surge. However, this does not mean that magnitude and/or frequency of storm-induced coastal hazards will not be affected by climate change. Thus, sea level rise will induce a series of long-term changes in coastal areas that although not directly affecting storminess will interact with storm-induced processes and, thus, changing coastal storm risks. A typical approach to account SLR-induced effects on coastal inundation by storms is to modify present water level extreme climate by adding expected MWL increase. This implies to consider the coast as a static and passive system to SLR maintaining its configuration from actual to projected (rised) sea level and, as a result of this, the frequency of flood events should increase and, the magnitude of flooding associated to a probability of occurrence will also increase. This will only be realistic for really passive or rigid coasts. However, sandy coastlines will response to SLR and, thus, this approach should undervalue coastal resilience. Within this context, the main aim of this work is to propose a method to assess the effects of SLR on the magnitude of storm-induced coastal flooding on sandy coastlines taking into account their capacity of response. It combines the use of a inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for delineating the flood-prone area for given storm conditions and, a coastal module to account for SLR-induced changes in the coastal fringe. The method assumes an equilibrium-type coastal response to SLR which, ideally, implies that the beach profile will be reconstructed under the new higher water level, in such a way that the relative beach configuration will be the same. However, this should only be possible provided there is enough accommodation space in the hinterland. In most of developed coasts, the existence of human built

  9. Application of State of Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for an Exposed Coastal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure in the coastal zone from storm surge and coincidental waves. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation standard for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and results of 2012 FIRM mapping are presented for Charlestown, RI; a coastal community located along the exposed, southern shoreline of the state. Concerns with the methods used in the 2012 analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling and data analysis methods to address the concerns in the NRC review. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. The approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS 2015. Revised flood maps are presented and compared with the 2012 FIRM map to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of offshore surge dynamics and its coupling to waves, dune erosion based on local observations, and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional wave transformation models.

  10. Effect of piping systems on surge in centrifugal compressors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, Hideaki

    2008-01-01

    There is a possibility that the exchange of the piping system may change the surge characteristic of a compressor. The piping system of a plant is not always the same as that of a test site. Then it is important to evaluate the effect of piping systems on surge characteristics in centrifugal compressors. Several turbochargers combined with different piping systems were tested. The lumped parameter model which was simplified to be solved easily was applied for the prediction of surge point. Surge lines were calculated with the linearlized lumped parameter model. The difference between the test and calculated results was within 10 %. Trajectory of surge cycle was also examined by solving the lumped parameter model. Mild surge and deep surge were successfully predicted. This study confirmed that the lumped parameter model was a very useful tool to predict the effect of piping systems on surge characteristics in centrifugal compressors, even though that was a simple model

  11. Mathematical modeling of tornadoes and squall storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Arsen’yev

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.

  12. Solar radio continuum storms and a breathing magnetic field model. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Radio noise continuum emissions observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies are, in general, associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. These continuum emission sources, often called type I storm sources, are often associated with type III burst storm activity from metric to hectometric wave frequencies. This storm activity is, therefore, closely connected with the development of these continuum emission sources. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally precedes, by several days, the emission of these noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. In order for these storms to develop, the growth of sunspot groups into complex types is very important in addition to the increase of the average magnetic field intensity and area of these groups. After giving a review on the theory of these noise continuum storm emissions, a model is briefly considered to explain the relation of the emissions to the storms

  13. Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

    2015-12-01

    Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

  14. 48 CFR 252.217-7001 - Surge option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Surge option. 252.217-7001... Clauses 252.217-7001 Surge option. As prescribed in 217.208-70(b), use the following clause: Surge Option (AUG 1992) (a) General. The Government has the option to— (1) Increase the quantity of supplies or...

  15. Surge flow irrigation under short field conditions in Egypt

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ismail, S.M.; Depeweg, H.; Schultz, E.

    2004-01-01

    Several studies carried out in long furrows have shown that surge flow irrigation offers the potential of increasing the efficiency of irrigation. The effects of surge flow in short fields, such as in Egypt, are still not well known, however. To investigate the effect of surge flow irrigation in

  16. Validation of a surge model by full scale testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeulers, J.P.M.; Gonzalez Díez, N.; Slot, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Surge of turbo compressors can cause large almost step like changes in flow and pressure, which can potentially damage the compressor and any equipment that is in direct connection with the compressor. In spite of an anti-surge controller (ASC), at extreme events surge cycles may occur. In order to

  17. Emission of Electromagnetic Waves through Medium of Matter Waves, Correlation between Wavelengths and Temperatures in Radiation Series of Hydrogen

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pekárek, Viktor

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 2 (2002), s. 139-149 ISSN 0001-7043 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z2057903 Keywords : Matter waves * interference and surges of matter waves Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism

  18. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  19. Mangroves can provide protection against wind damage during storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Saudamini; Crépin, Anne-Sophie

    2013-12-01

    Research has established that mangroves can protect lives and property from storms by buffering the impacts of storm surges. However, their effects in attenuating wind velocity and providing protection from wind damage during storms are not known. This study examined whether mangroves attenuate damage from cyclonic winds and found that they provide substantial protection to properties, even relatively far away from mangroves and the coast. We devised a theoretical model of wind protection by mangroves and calibrated and applied this model using data from the 1999 cyclone in the Odisha region of India. The model predicted and quantified the actual level of damage reasonably accurately and showed that mangroves reduced wind damage to houses. The wind protection value of mangroves in reducing house damage amounted to approximately US$177 per hectare at 1999 prices. This provides additional evidence of the storm protection ecosystem services that mangroves supply in the region and an additional reason to invest in mangrove ecosystems to provide better adaptability to coastal disasters such as storms.

  20. Toward a new paradigm for boulder dislodgement during storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Robert; Sheremet, Alex

    2017-07-01

    Boulders are an important coastal hazard event deposit because they can only be moved by tsunamis and energetic storms effects of storms. Storms and tsunami are competing processes for coastal change along many shorelines. Therefore, distinguishing the boulders that were moved during a storm from those moved by a tsunami is important. In this contribution, we present the results of a parameter study based on the TRIADS model for wave shoaling on mildly sloping beaches, coupled with a boulder-dislodgement model that is based on Newton's Second Law of Motion. The results show how smaller slopes expose the waves longer to the nonlinear processes, thus increasing the energy in the infragravity wave band. More energy in the infragravity wave band means that there are more energy wave lengths that can dislodge larger boulders. At the same time, a steeper slope lowers the threshold for boulder dislodgement (critical angle of dislodgement), making it more likely for larger boulders to be dislodged on a steeper slope. The competition between these two processes govern boulder dislodgement during storms and is investigated inhere.

  1. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  2. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  3. Experimental verification of the effect of cable length on voltage distribution in stator winding of an induction motor under surge condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyegoke, B.S. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). Lab. of Electromechanics

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents the results of surge distribution tests performed on a stator of a 6 kV induction motor. The primary aim of these tests was to determine the wave propagation properties of the machine winding fed via cables of different lengths. Considering the measured resorts, conclusions are derived regarding the effect of cable length on the surge distribution within the stator winding of an ac motor. (orig.) 15 refs.

  4. Morphological records of storm floods exemplified by the impact of the 1872 Baltic storm on a sandy spit system in south-eastern Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Bendixen, Mette; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    Beach-ridge systems are important geo-archives providing evidence for past wave climate including catastrophic storm flood events. This study investigates the morphological impacts of the 1872 Baltic storm flood on a beach-ridge system (sandy spit) in south-eastern Denmark and evaluates the frequ...

  5. Scale-dependent behavior of the foredune: Implications for barrier island response to storms and sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, Chris; Wernette, Phil; Weymer, Bradley A.

    2018-02-01

    The impact of storm surge on a barrier island tends to be considered from a single cross-shore dimension, dependent on the relative elevations of the storm surge and dune crest. However, the foredune is rarely uniform and can exhibit considerable variation in height and width at a range of length scales. In this study, LiDAR data from barrier islands in Texas and Florida are used to explore how shoreline position and dune morphology vary alongshore, and to determine how this variability is altered or reinforced by storms and post-storm recovery. Wavelet analysis reveals that a power law can approximate historical shoreline change across all scales, but that storm-scale shoreline change ( 10 years) and dune height exhibit similar scale-dependent variations at swash and surf zone scales (< 1000 m). The in-phase nature of the relationship between dune height and storm-scale shoreline change indicates that areas of greater storm-scale shoreline retreat are associated with areas of smaller dunes. It is argued that the decoupling of storm-scale and historical shoreline change at swash and surf zone scales is also associated with the alongshore redistribution of sediment and the tendency of shorelines to evolve to a more diffusive (or straight) pattern with time. The wavelet analysis of the data for post-storm dune recovery is also characterized by red noise at the smallest scales characteristic of diffusive systems, suggesting that it is possible that small-scale variations in dune height can be repaired through alongshore recovery and expansion if there is sufficient time between storms. However, the time required for dune recovery exceeds the time between storms capable of eroding and overwashing the dune. Correlation between historical shoreline retreat and the variance of the dune at swash and surf zone scales suggests that the persistence of the dune is an important control on transgression through island migration or shoreline retreat with relative sea-level rise.

  6. Biological effects of geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chibisov, S.M.; Breus, T.K.; Levitin, A.E.; Drogova, G.M.; AN SSSR, Moscow; AN SSSR, Moscow

    1995-01-01

    Six physiological parameters of cardio-vascular system of rabbits and ultrastructure of cardiomyocytes were investigated during two planetary geomagnetic storms. At the initial and main phase of the storm the normal circadian structure in each cardiovascular parameter was lost. The disynchronozis was growing together with the storm and abrupt drop of cardia activity was observed during the main phase of storm. The main phase of storm followed by the destruction and degradation of cardiomyocytes. Parameters of cardia activity became substantially synchronized and characterized by circadian rhythm structure while the amplitude of deviations was still significant at the recovery stage of geomagnetic storm. 3 refs.; 7 figs

  7. Great magnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

    1992-01-01

    The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

  8. Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

    2015-07-21

    The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

  9. A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila

    2016-01-01

    KF-OSA exploits the observation twice. The incoming observation is first used to smooth the ensemble at the previous time step. The resulting smoothed ensemble is then integrated forward to compute a "pseudo forecast" ensemble, which is again updated with the same

  10. Two-sample Kalman filter and system error modelling for storm surge forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sumihar, J.H.

    2009-01-01

    Two directions for improving the accuracy of sea level forecast are investigated in this study. The first direction seeks to improve the forecast accuracy of astronomical tide component. Here, a method is applied to analyze and forecast the remaining periodic components of harmonic analysis

  11. Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas; Altaf, Muhammad; Mandli, Kyle T.; Hadwiger, Markus; Dawson, Clint N.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial and temporal regions without delay. In addition, our system provides advanced visualizations

  12. Joint Projections of US East Coast Sea Level and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Villarini, Gabriele

    2015-01-01

    Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end Fl projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

  13. Storm and cloud dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cotton, William R

    1992-01-01

    This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

  14. Hurricane Rita and the destruction of Holly Beach, Louisiana: Why the chenier plain is vulnerable to storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, A.H.; Wright, C.W.; Doran, K.; Guy, K.; Morgan, K.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricane Rita devastated gulf-front communities along the western Louisiana coast in 2005. LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys and aerial photography collected before and after the storm showed the loss of every structure within the community of Holly Beach. Average shoreline change along western Louisiana's 140-km-long impacted shore was -23.3 ?? 30.1 m of erosion, although shoreline change in Holly Beach was substantially less, and erosion was not pervasive where the structures were lost. Before the storm, peak elevations of the dunes, or berms in the absence of dunes, along the impacted shore averaged 1.6 m. The storm surge, which reached 3.5 m just east of Holly Beach, completely inundated the beach systems along the impacted western Louisiana shore. The high surge potential and low land elevations make this coast extremely vulnerable to hurricanes. In fact, most of the western Louisiana shore impacted by Rita will be completely inundated by the storm surge of a worst-case Saffi r-Simpson category 1 hurricane. All of this shore will be inundated by worst-case category 2-5 storms. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  15. Research of large-amplitude waves evolution in the framework of shallow water equations and their implication for people's safety in extreme situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelinovsky, Efim; Chaikovskaia, Natalya; Rodin, Artem

    2015-04-01

    The paper presents the analysis of the formation and evolution of shock wave in shallow water with no restrictions on its amplitude in the framework of the nonlinear shallow water equations. It is shown that in the case of large-amplitude waves appears a new nonlinear effect of reflection from the shock front of incident wave. These results are important for the assessment of coastal flooding by tsunami waves and storm surges. Very often the largest number of victims was observed on the coastline where the wave moved breaking. Many people, instead of running away, were just looking at the movement of the "raging wall" and lost time. This fact highlights the importance of researching the problem of security and optimal behavior of people in situations with increased risk. Usually there is uncertainty about the exact time, when rogue waves will impact. This fact limits the ability of people to adjust their behavior psychologically to the stressful situations. It concerns specialists, who are busy both in the field of flying activity and marine service as well as adults, young people and children, who live on the coastal zone. The rogue wave research is very important and it demands cooperation of different scientists - mathematicians and physicists, as well as sociologists and psychologists, because the final goal of efforts of all scientists is minimization of the harm, brought by rogue waves to humanity.

  16. Classification of Nortes in the Gulf of Mexico derived from wave energy maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Hernández-Lasheras, J.

    2016-02-01

    Extreme wave climate in the Gulf of Mexico is determined by tropical cyclones and winds from the Central American Cold Surges, locally referred to as Nortes. While hurricanes can have catastrophic effects, extreme waves and storm surge from Nortes occur several times a year, and thus have greater impacts on human activities along the Mexican coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the constant impacts from Nortes, there is no available classification that relates their characteristics (e.g. pressure gradients, wind speed), to the associated coastal impacts. This work presents a first approximation to characterize and classify Nortes, which is based on the assumption that the derived wave energy synthetizes information (i.e. wind intensity, direction and duration) of individual Norte events as they pass through the Gulf of Mexico. First, we developed an index to identify Nortes based on surface pressure differences of two locations. To validate the methodology we compared the events identified with other studies and available Nortes logs. Afterwards, we detected Nortes from the 1986/1987, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons and used their corresponding wind fields to derive the wave energy maps using a numerical wave model. We used the energy maps to classify the events into groups using manual (visual) and automatic classifications (principal component analysis and k-means). The manual classification identified 3 types of Nortes and the automatic classification identified 5, although 3 of them had a high degree of similarity. The principal component analysis indicated that all events have similar characteristics, as few components are necessary to explain almost all of the variance. The classification from the k-means indicated that 81% of analyzed Nortes affect the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, while a smaller percentage affects the northern Gulf of Mexico and even less affect the western Caribbean.

  17. California's Perfect Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, David

    2010-01-01

    The United States today faces an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nowhere is it sharper than in the nation's schools. Last year, California saw a perfect storm of protest in virtually every part of its education system. K-12 teachers built coalitions with parents and students to fight for their jobs and their…

  18. Dave Storm esitleb singlit

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    7. märtsil klubis Spirit ja 8. märtsil klubis Terminal presenteerib tallinlane DJ Dave Storm oma uut singlit "Ride", millel teeb laulmisega kaasa ameeriklane Charlie C. Singelplaadi annab peadselt välja Inglise plaadifirma Refunkt

  19. Interview with Gert Storm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Storm, Gerrit

    2013-01-01

    Gert Storm studied biology at the Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and obtained his PhD degree in 1987 at the Department of Pharmaceutics of the same university. He is now Professor of targeted drug delivery at the University of Utrecht, as well as Professor of targeted therapeutics at the MIRA

  20. Towards a record of Holocene tsunami and storms for northern Hawke's Bay, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochran, U.A.; Berryman, K.R.; Mildenhall, D.C.; Hayward, B.W.; Southall, K.; Hollis, C.J.

    2005-01-01

    Eleven sand layers occur within Holocene low-energy estuarine and marginal marine sequences of blue-grey silty clay at two sites on the coastal plain between Wairoa and Mahia Peninsula, northern Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. The sedimentology and fossil assemblages of these layers are consistent with deposition by high-energy influxes to the sites. Three influxes are terrestrial in nature and are thought to represent alluvial flood events. All other sand layers are marine derived and are likely to be the result of storm surges or tsunami. Tsunami inundation is favoured for two sand layers that occur in association with evidence for sudden subsidence at c. 6300 and c. 4800 yr BP. The c. 6300 yr inundation also coincides with previously identified evidence for a tsunami at a site 10 km westwards along the coast. Further investigation is required to distinguish between tsunami and storm surge deposition for the remaining six layers. (author). 50 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Compressor Surge Control Design Using Linear Matrix Inequality Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Uddin, Nur; Gravdahl, Jan Tommy

    2017-01-01

    A novel design for active compressor surge control system (ASCS) using linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is presented and including a case study on piston-actuated active compressor surge control system (PAASCS). The non-linear system dynamics of the PAASCS is transformed into linear parameter varying (LPV) system dynamics. The system parameters are varying as a function of the compressor performance curve slope. A compressor surge stabilization problem is then formulated as a LMI probl...

  2. Flow in sodium loop surge tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matal, O.; Martoch, J.

    1977-01-01

    The alternate liquid flow, the condition of vortex formation, gas entrainment in the discharge and the liquid level characteristics are studied using the models of the vertical and horizontal surge tanks of a sodium circuit with pump and heat exchangers. The conditions for vortex formation are more favourable in the vertical cylindrical tank than in the horizontal tank. The size of the vortex produced in the tank is affected by the initial speed circulation, due as a rule to an unsuitable inlet design. The proposed design considers an inlet below the sodium level using capped perforated pipes. Vortex formation, gas transport to the discharge pipe and turbulences of the liquid in the tank may be prevented by dividing the tank to the discharge and the inlet areas using perforated partitions, and by inserting the discharge cylinder above the discharge pipe outflow. The liquid level in the tank may be calmed by screens or by perforated plates. The adaptation of the surge tank of the sodium circuit will probably eliminate vortex formation and the entrainment of cover gas into the discharge piping and the sodium circuit under nominal conditions. (J.B.)

  3. Surge-like Oscillations above Sunspot Light Bridges Driven by Magnetoacoustic Shocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jingwen; Tian, Hui; He, Jiansen; Wang, Linghua, E-mail: huitian@pku.edu.cn [School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, 100871 Beijing (China)

    2017-03-20

    High-resolution observations of the solar chromosphere and transition region often reveal surge-like oscillatory activities above sunspot light bridges (LBs). These oscillations are often interpreted as intermittent plasma jets produced by quasi-periodic magnetic reconnection. We have analyzed the oscillations above an LB in a sunspot using data taken by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph . The chromospheric 2796 Å images show surge-like activities above the entire LB at any time, forming an oscillating wall. Within the wall we often see that the core of the Mg ii k 2796.35 Å line first experiences a large blueshift, and then gradually decreases to zero shift before increasing to a redshift of comparable magnitude. Such a behavior suggests that the oscillations are highly nonlinear and likely related to shocks. In the 1400 Å passband, which samples emission mainly from the Si iv ion, the most prominent feature is a bright oscillatory front ahead of the surges. We find a positive correlation between the acceleration and maximum velocity of the moving front, which is consistent with numerical simulations of upward propagating slow-mode shock waves. The Si iv 1402.77 Å line profile is generally enhanced and broadened in the bright front, which might be caused by turbulence generated through compression or by the shocks. These results, together with the fact that the oscillation period stays almost unchanged over a long duration, lead us to propose that the surge-like oscillations above LBs are caused by shocked p-mode waves leaked from the underlying photosphere.

  4. Experimental Modelling of the Overtopping Flow on the Wave Dragon Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parmeggiani, Stefano; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    The Wave Dragon is a floating slack-moored Wave Energy Converter (WEC) of the overtopping type. Oncoming waves are focused by two wing reflectors towards the ramp of the device, surge-up and overtop into a reservoir placed at a higher level than the surface of the sea. The energy production takes...

  5. Combined effect of upstream surge chamber and sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel on dynamic performance of turbine regulating system of hydroelectric power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Wencheng; Yang, Jiandong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Nonlinear mathematical model and Hopf bifurcation analysis of turbine regulating system are presented. • Dynamic performance of turbine regulating system under 0.5 times Thoma sectional area is analyzed and a novel dynamic performance is revealed. • Relationship between two bifurcation lines and wave superposition is studied. • Combined effect mechanisms of upstream surge chamber and sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel on stability are revealed and optimization methods are proposed. - Abstract: Based on the nonlinear mathematical model of the turbine regulating system of hydroelectric power plant with upstream surge chamber and sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel and the Hopf bifurcation theory, this paper firstly studies the dynamic performance of the turbine regulating system under 0.5 times Thoma sectional area of surge chamber, and reveals a novel dynamic performance. Then, the relationship between the two bifurcation lines and the wave superposition of upstream surge chamber and sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel is analyzed. Finally, the effect mechanisms of the wave superposition on the system stability are investigated, and the methods to improve the system stability are proposed. The results indicate that: Under the combined effect of upstream surge chamber and sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel, the dynamic performance of the turbine regulating system of hydroelectric power plant shows an obvious difference on the two sides of the critical sectional area of surge chamber. There are two bifurcation lines for the condition of 0.5 times Thoma sectional area, i.e. Bifurcation line 1 and Bifurcation line 2, which represent the stability characteristics of the flow oscillation of “penstock-sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel” and the water-level fluctuation in upstream surge chamber, respectively. The stable domain of the system is determined by Bifurcation line 2. The effect of upstream surge chamber mainly depends on its sectional area, while the

  6. Leonid storm research

    CERN Document Server

    Rietmeijer, Frans; Brosch, Noah; Fonda, Mark

    2000-01-01

    This book will appeal to all researchers that have an interest in the current Leonid showers It contains over forty research papers that present some of the first observational results of the November 1999 Leonid meteor storm, the first storm observed by modern observing techniques The book is a first glimpse of the large amount of information obtained during NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign and groundbased campaigns throughout the world It provides an excellent overview on the state of meteor shower research for any professional researcher or amateur meteor observer interested in studies of meteors and meteoroids and their relation to comets, the origin of life on Earth, the satellite impact hazard issue, and upper atmosphere studies of neutral atom chemistry, the formation of meteoric debris, persistent trains, airglow, noctilucent clouds, sprites and elves

  7. Dust storm, northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    This large dust storm along the left side of the photo, covers a large portion of the state of Coahuila, Mexico (27.5N, 102.0E). The look angle of this oblique photo is from the south to the north. In the foreground is the Sierra Madre Oriental in the states Coahuila and Nuevo Leon with the Rio Grande River, Amistad Reservoir and Texas in the background.

  8. LibrarySTORM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breüner, Niels; Bech, Tine

    2013-01-01

    Når flere uddannelser samles i en nybygning til Campus C på Ceres grunden i Aarhus, skal der også indrettes et fælles bibliotek. Når der samtidig er midler til at arbejde med brugerdreven innovation, lå det lige for at inddrage de studerende og få deres visioner for fremtidens bibliotek. Der blev...... arrangeret en udviklingsdag, hvor der skulle brainstormes – og projektet blev kaldt LibrarySTORM....

  9. Ionospheric and satellite observations for studying the dynamic behavior of typhoons and the detection of severe storms and tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, R. J.; Smith, R. E.

    1978-01-01

    Atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, typhoons (hurricanes) and tsunamis can be studied through the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere. Reverse ray tracing computations of acoustic-gravity waves observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array show that wave sources are in the nearby storm systems and that the waves are excited prior to the storms. Results show that ionospheric observations, together with satellite observations, can contribute to the understanding of the dynamical behavior of typhoons, severe storms and tsunamis.

  10. Wind and Wave Setup Contributions to Extreme Sea Levels at a Tropical High Island: A Stochastic Cyclone Simulation Study for Apia, Samoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Karl Hoeke

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Wind-wave contributions to tropical cyclone (TC-induced extreme sea levels are known to be significant in areas with narrow littoral zones, particularly at oceanic islands. Despite this, little information exists in many of these locations to assess the likelihood of inundation, the relative contribution of wind and wave setup to this inundation, and how it may change with sea level rise (SLR, particularly at scales relevant to coastal infrastructure. In this study, we explore TC-induced extreme sea levels at spatial scales on the order of tens of meters at Apia, the capitol of Samoa, a nation in the tropical South Pacific with typical high-island fringing reef morphology. Ensembles of stochastically generated TCs (based on historical information are combined with numerical simulations of wind waves, storm-surge, and wave setup to develop high-resolution statistical information on extreme sea levels and local contributions of wind setup and wave setup. The results indicate that storm track and local morphological details lead to local differences in extreme sea levels on the order of 1 m at spatial scales of less than 1 km. Wave setup is the overall largest contributor at most locations; however, wind setup may exceed wave setup in some sheltered bays. When an arbitrary SLR scenario (+1 m is introduced, overall extreme sea levels are found to modestly decrease relative to SLR, but wave energy near the shoreline greatly increases, consistent with a number of other recent studies. These differences have implications for coastal adaptation strategies.

  11. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

  12. Strong winds and waves offshore

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo

    2016-01-01

    is on the meteorologi al and o eani onditions related to storm winds and waves over the North Sea. With regard to the o shore wind energy appli ation, the parameters addressed here in lude: extreme wind and extreme waves, storm wind and waves and turbulen e issues for o shore onditions.......This report is prepared for Statoil, with the intention to introdu e DTU Wind Energy's ongoing resear h a tivities on o shore extreme wind and wave onditions. The purpose is to share our re ent ndings and to establish possible further ollaboration with Statoil. The fo us of this report...

  13. Marine boundary layer characteristics during a cyclonic storm over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    raise the water level due to the generation of huge waves and .... mum intensity of the system was T2.5 on Dvorak's scale from 15 .... movement of cyclonic storm over land, the low level ... 15 and 18 are classified as deep convective sound-.

  14. Harmful effects of lightning surge discharge on communications terminal equipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Sisi; Xu, Xiaoying; Tao, Zhigang; Dai, Yanling

    2013-01-01

    The interference problem of lightning surges on electronic and telecommunication products were examined, and a series of experiments were conducted to analyze the failure situations to find out the mechanisms of failures caused by the lightning surge. In addition, the ways in which lightning surges damaged equipment were deduced. It was found that failure positions were scattered and appeared in groups, and most of them were ground discharge. Internet access transformer had high withstand-voltage under the lightning pulse, and the lightning surge seldom passed through the internet access transformer. The lightning current can release to the ground via the computer network adapter of the terminal user. The study will help to improve the performance of lightning surge protection circuit and protection level.

  15. Glacier surge mechanism based on linked cavity configuration of the basal water conduit system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamb, Barclay

    1987-08-01

    Based on observations of the 1982-1983 surge of Variegated Glacier, Alaska, a model of the surge mechanism is developed in terms of a transition from the normal tunnel configuration of the basal water conduit system to a linked cavity configuration that tends to restrict the flow of water, resulting in increased basal water pressures that cause rapid basal sliding. The linked cavity system consists of basal cavities formed by ice-bedrock separation (cavitation), ˜1 m high and ˜10 m in horizontal dimensions, widely scattered over the glacier bed, and hydraulically linked by narrow connections where separation is minimal (separation gap ≲ 0.1 m). The narrow connections, called orifices, control the water flow through the conduit system; by throttling the flow through the large cavities, the orifices keep the water flux transmitted by the basal water system at normal levels even though the total cavity cross-sectional area (˜200 m2) is much larger than that of a tunnel system (˜10 m2). A physical model of the linked cavity system is formulated in terms of the dimensions of the "typical" cavity and orifice and the numbers of these across the glacier width. The model concentrates on the detailed configuration of the typical orifice and its response to basal water pressure and basal sliding, which determines the water flux carried by the system under given conditions. Configurations are worked out for two idealized orifice types, step orifices that form in the lee of downglacier-facing bedrock steps, and wave orifices that form on the lee slopes of quasisinusoidal bedrock waves and are similar to transverse "N channels." The orifice configurations are obtained from the results of solutions of the basal-sliding-with-separation problem for an ice mass constituting of linear half-space of linear rheology, with nonlinearity introduced by making the viscosity stress-dependent on an intuitive basis. Modification of the orifice shapes by melting of the ice roof due to

  16. Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Bennett

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

  17. Probabilistic Forecasting of Coastal Morphodynamic Storm Response at Fire Island, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, K.; Adams, P. N.; Hapke, C. J.; Lentz, E. E.; Brenner, O.

    2013-12-01

    Site-specific probabilistic models of shoreline change are useful because they are derived from direct observations so that local factors, which greatly influence coastal response, are inherently considered by the model. Fire Island, a 50-km barrier island off Long Island, New York, is periodically subject to large storms, whose waves and storm surge dramatically alter beach morphology. Nor'Ida, which impacted the Fire Island coast in 2009, was one of the larger storms to occur in the early 2000s. In this study, we improve upon a Bayesian Network (BN) model informed with historical data to predict shoreline change from Nor'Ida. We present two BN models, referred to as 'original' model (BNo) and 'revised' model (BNr), designed to predict the most probable magnitude of net shoreline movement (NSM), as measured at 934 cross-shore transects, spanning 46 km. Both are informed with observational data (wave impact hours, shoreline and dune toe change rates, pre-storm beach width, and measured NSM) organized within five nodes, but the revised model contains a sixth node to represent the distribution of material added during an April 2009 nourishment project. We evaluate model success by examining the percentage of transects on which the model chooses the correct (observed) bin value of NSM. Comparisons of observed to model-predicted NSM show BNr has slightly higher predictive success over the total study area and significantly higher success at nourished locations. The BNo, which neglects anthropogenic modification history, correctly predicted the most probable NSM in 66.6% of transects, with ambiguous prediction at 12.7% of the locations. BNr, which incorporates anthropogenic modification history, resulted in 69.4% predictive accuracy and 13.9% ambiguity. However, across nourished transects, BNr reported 72.9% predictive success, while BNo reported 61.5% success. Further, at nourished transects, BNr reported higher ambiguity of 23.5% compared to 9.9% in BNo. These results

  18. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  19. Submerged beachrock preservation in the context of wave ravinement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretorius, Lauren; Green, Andrew N.; Andrew Cooper, J.

    2018-02-01

    This study examines a Holocene-aged submerged shoreline, Limestone Reef, located in the shallow subtidal zone of South Africa's east coast. It comprises an elongate, coast-oblique, slab-like outcrop of beachrock situated above the contemporary fair-weather wave base. It is currently undergoing mechanical disintegration. Its unique and rare preservation in a high-energy setting affords an opportunity to examine the mechanical processes occurring during wave ravinement associated with rising sea level. The submerged shoreline and the adjacent shoreface were examined using high-resolution seismic reflection, side-scan sonar and shallow-water multibeam echosounding techniques. Limestone Reef rests on top of unconsolidated Holocene deposits. The structure's surface is characterised by reef-perpendicular gullies with rubble derived from the slab fringing its seaward edge. Limestone Reef slopes gently seawards and has a steep landward-facing edge where gullies are most prominently developed. Teardrop-shaped rippled scour depressions, marked by high backscatter, are located seawards of the submerged shoreline. These elongate in a seaward direction and are filled with bioclastic gravels and residual rubble from Limestone Reef. The gullies in the upstanding structure are indicative of wave plucking and abrasion of the shoreline. The material exposed by the rippled scour depressions is identical to that comprising the postglacial ravinement surface identified in the offshore stratigraphy. These deposits are considered to represent the contemporary, actively forming wave ravinement surface. The results suggest that wave ravinement of submerged shorelines is a discontinuous process dominated by the seaward entrainment of material from its landward edge controlled by high-energy drawback during storm surges. The ravinement process appears to operate at the seasonal scale and averages out over the long-term millennial scale for the continuous surface.

  20. An integrated wave modelling framework for extreme and rare events for climate change in coastal areas – the case of Rethymno, Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasiliki K. Tsoukala

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Coastal floods are regarded as among the most dangerous and harmful of all natural disasters affecting urban areas adjacent to the shorelines. Rapid urbanization combined with climate change and poor governance often results in significant increase of flood risk, especially for coastal communities. Wave overtopping and wave run-up are the key mechanisms for monitoring the results of coastal flooding and as such, significant efforts are currently focusing on their predicting. In this paper, an integrated methodology is proposed, accounting for wave overtopping and wave run-up under extreme wave scenarios caused by storm surges. By taking advantage of past and future climatic projections of wind data, a downscaling approach is proposed, utilizing a number of appropriate numerical models than can simulate the wave propagation from offshore up to the swash zone. The coastal zone of Rethymno in Greece is selected as a case study area and simulations of wave characteristics with the model SWAN for the period 1960–2100 in the offshore region are presented. These data are given as boundary conditions to further numerical models (MIKE21 PMS and HD in order to investigate the spatial evolution of the wave and the hydrodynamic field in intermediate and shallow waters. Finally, the calculated wave height serves as input to empirical formulas and time dependent wave propagation models (MIKE21 BW to estimate the wave run-up and wave overtopping (EurOtop. It is suggested that the proposed procedure is generic enough to be applicable to any similar region.

  1. Neurosteroids, trigger of the LH surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, John; Micevych, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Recent experiments from our laboratory are consistent with the idea that hypothalamic astrocytes are critical components of the central nervous system (CNS) mediated estrogen positive feedback mechanism. The “astrocrine hypothesis” maintains that ovarian estradiol rapidly increases free cytoplasmic calcium concentrations ([Ca2+]i) that facilitate progesterone synthesis in astrocytes. This hypothalamic neuroprogesterone along with the elevated estrogen from the ovaries allows for the surge release of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) that triggers the pituitary luteinizing hormone (LH) surge. A narrow range of estradiol stimulated progesterone production supports an “off-on-off” mechanism regulating the transition from estrogen negative feedback to estrogen positive feedback, and back again. The rapidity of the [Ca2+]i response and progesterone synthesis support a non-genomic, membrane-initiated signaling mechanism. In hypothalamic astrocytes, membrane-associated estrogen receptors (mERs) signal through transactivation of the metabotropic glutamate receptor type 1a (mGluR1a), implying that astrocytic function is influenced by surrounding glutamatergic nerve terminals. Although other putative mERs, such as mERβ, STX-activated mER-Gαq, and G protein-coupled receptor 30 (GPR30), are present and participate in membrane-mediated signaling, their influence in reproduction is still obscure since female reproduction be it estrogen positive feedback or lordosis behavior requires mERα. The astrocrine hypothesis is also consistent with the well-known sexual dimorphism of estrogen positive feedback. In rodents, only post-pubertal females exhibit this positive feedback. Hypothalamic astrocytes cultured from females, but not males, responded to estradiol by increasing progesterone synthesis. Estrogen autoregulates its own signaling by regulating levels of mERα in the plasma membrane of female astrocytes. In male astrocytes, the estradiol-induced increase in m

  2. Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

    2013-01-01

    Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

  3. Storm Warnings for Cuba

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet : order@rand.org. al Accesion For "Ni %&’ Storm WarningsDTI’ TAB E03 --- - - -for...reaction leading to an uncontrol- lable burgeoning of private entrepreneurial activity. As one observer 14See Acuerdo del Buro Politico , "Para llevar a...34 10Comisi6n de Relaciones Internacionales, Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, Datos, Reflexiones y Argumentos Sobre la Actual Situaci6n de Cuba, n.p

  4. The women day storm

    OpenAIRE

    Parnowski, Aleksei; Polonska, Anna; Semeniv, Oleg

    2012-01-01

    On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.

  5. Magnetic storm effects on the mid-latitude plasmasphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.J.; Clilverd, M.A.

    1991-01-01

    Whistler mode group delays observed at Faraday, Antarctica (65 o S,64 0 W) decrease after the onset of magnetic storms, and slowly recover to normal levels in 1 or 2 days. This is interpreted as a decrease (typically of ∼50%) and recovery of the plasmaspheric electron density at L = 2.5. Within 1 day of the main phase of storms with K p (max) between 6 and 8, the number of observed whistler ducts increases by a factor of 2 or 3, recovering in a few days. During the most intense storms (K p > 8) the duct number decreases. The frequency of occurrence of observed whistler mode signals increases during storms, due probably to enhanced ionospheric propagation of the signals; the storm time dependence implies that there is no link with the apparent increase in duct numbers. The amplitudes of received whistler mode signals are increased by up to a factor of 10 during storms: this is interpreted in terms of magnetospheric amplification through wave-particle interactions, though the evidence suggests that amplification is not necessarily the mechanism by which increased duct numbers are observed. There appears to be a real increase in the duct formation rate, consistent with Walker's (1978) theory in which ring current penetration of the plasmasphere creates a preferential region for duct formation 1.5 R E inside the plasmapause. (author)

  6. Surge dynamics on Bering Glacier, Alaska, in 2008–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Braun

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A surge cycle of the Bering Glacier system, Alaska, is examined using observations of surface velocity obtained using synthetic aperture radar (SAR offset tracking, and elevation data obtained from the University of Alaska Fairbanks LiDAR altimetry program. After 13 yr of quiescence, the Bering Glacier system began to surge in May 2008 and had two stages of accelerated flow. During the first stage, flow accelerated progressively for at least 10 months and reached peak observed velocities of ~ 7 m d−1. The second stage likely began in 2010. By 2011 velocities exceeded 9 m d−1 or ~ 18 times quiescent velocities. Fast flow continued into July 2011. Surface morphology indicated slowing by fall 2011; however, it is not entirely clear if the surge is yet over. The quiescent phase was characterized by small-scale acceleration events that increased driving stresses up to 70%. When the surge initiated, synchronous acceleration occurred throughout much of the glacier length. Results suggest that downstream propagation of the surge is closely linked to the evolution of the driving stress during the surge, because driving stress appears to be tied to the amount of resistive stress provided by the bed. In contrast, upstream acceleration and upstream surge propagation is not dependent on driving stress evolution.

  7. Present dynamics and future prognosis of a slowly surging glacier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. E. Flowers

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Glacier surges are a well-known example of an internal dynamic oscillation whose occurrence is not a direct response to the external climate forcing, but whose character (i.e. period, amplitude, mechanism may depend on the glacier's environmental or climate setting. We examine the dynamics of a small (∼5 km2 valley glacier in Yukon, Canada, where two previous surges have been photographically documented and an unusually slow surge is currently underway. To characterize the dynamics of the present surge, and to speculate on the future of this glacier, we employ a higher-order flowband model of ice dynamics with a regularized Coulomb-friction sliding law in both diagnostic and prognostic simulations. Diagnostic (force balance calculations capture the measured ice-surface velocity profile only when non-zero basal water pressures are prescribed over the central region of the glacier, coincident with where evidence of the surge has been identified. This leads to sliding accounting for 50–100% of the total surface motion in this region. Prognostic simulations, where the glacier geometry evolves in response to a prescribed surface mass balance, reveal a significant role played by a bedrock ridge beneath the current equilibrium line of the glacier. Ice thickening occurs above the ridge in our simulations, until the net mass balance reaches sufficiently negative values. We suggest that the bedrock ridge may contribute to the propensity for surges in this glacier by promoting the development of the reservoir area during quiescence, and may permit surges to occur under more negative balance conditions than would otherwise be possible. Collectively, these results corroborate our interpretation of the current glacier flow regime as indicative of a slow surge that has been ongoing for some time, and support a relationship between surge incidence or character and the net mass balance. Our results also highlight the importance of glacier bed

  8. Hindcasting cyclonic waves using neural networks

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Chakravarty, N.V.

    for computing extreme wave conditions or design wave statistics. As far as Indian seas are concerned recorded wave data are available for short periods for some places along the coasts. Estimation of wave parameters by numerical wave forecasting schemes... is useful and attractive in many applications. It not only involves an enormous amount of computational effort but also needs elaborate meteorological and oceanographic data. Hindcasting waves using past storm wind fields can overcome this deficiency...

  9. China's electric car surge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yunshi; Sperling, Daniel; Tal, Gil; Fang, Haifeng

    2017-01-01

    China's plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales, comprising both battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, surged 343% in 2015, and are expected to reach 2 million by 2020. Two factors are crucial to this sudden transformation: 1) massive central and local government subsidies, and 2) huge non-monetary incentives via exemptions from restrictions on vehicle ownership in Beijing, Shanghai, and elsewhere. Innovative business models and greatly expanded vehicle offerings, especially by local Chinese manufacturers, also helped accelerate PEV sales and infrastructure deployment. However, continued sales growth is threatened by persistent regional protectionism, the unsustainability of these large subsidies, and widely reported cheating by some automakers. We suggest some innovative policies that China might pioneer and transfer elsewhere. - Highlights: • The rapid growth was a result of massive central and local government subsidies. • Exemptions from restrictions on vehicle ownership play even more important role. • A comparative case study of Beijing and Shanghai. • Persistent regional protectionism impedes the development of China's PEV industry. • Focusing on the use of PEVs is a better way to achieve eVMT.

  10. Influence of storm characteristics on soil erosion and storm runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnny M. III Grace

    2008-01-01

    Unpaved forest roads can be major sources of sediment from forested watersheds. Storm runoff from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery of sediments and nutrients to stream systems resulting in degraded water quality. The volume and sediment concentrations of stormwater runoff emanating from forest roads can be greatly influenced by storm...

  11. A simulation method for lightning surge response of switching power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Ming; Chen, Xiang

    2013-01-01

    In order to meet the need of protection design for lighting surge, a prediction method of lightning electromagnetic pulse (LEMP) response which is based on system identification is presented. Experiments of switching power's surge injection were conducted, and the input and output data were sampled, de-noised and de-trended. In addition, the model of energy coupling transfer function was obtained by system identification method. Simulation results show that the system identification method can predict the surge response of linear circuit well. The method proposed in the paper provided a convenient and effective technology for simulation of lightning effect.

  12. Pressure-surge mitigation methods in fluid-conveying piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Y.W.; Youngdahl, C.K.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1991-01-01

    Pressure surges in the heat transport system of nuclear reactor plants can affect the safety and reliability of the plants. Hence the pressure surges must be considered in the design, operation, and maintenance of the plants in order to minimize their occurrence and impacts. The objectives of this paper are to review various methods to control or mitigate the pressure surges, to analyze these methods to gain understanding of the mitigation mechanisms, and examine applicability of the methods to nuclear power plants. 6 refs., 13 figs

  13. Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzewich, Scott D.; Wilson, R. John; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Bandfield, Donald J.; Smith, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

  14. Temporal variations in the wind and wave climate at a location in the eastern Arabian Sea based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shanas, P.R.; SanilKumar, V.

    –597, 2011. Dube, S. K., Rao, A. D., Sinha, P. C., Murty, T. S., and Bahulayan, N.: Numerical modelling of storm surges in the Arabian Sea, Appl. Math. Model., 9, 289–294, 1997. Evan, A. T. and Camargo S. J.: A Climatology of Arabian Sea Cy- clonic Storms, J...

  15. Substorms during different storm phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Partamies

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available After the deep solar minimum at the end of the solar cycle 23, a small magnetic storm occurred on 20–26 January 2010. The Dst (disturbance storm time index reached the minimum of −38 nT on 20 January and the prolonged recovery that followed the main phase that lasted for about 6 days. In this study, we concentrate on three substorms that took place (1 just prior to the storm, (2 during the main phase of the storm, and (3 at the end of the recovery of the storm. We analyse the solar wind conditions from the solar wind monitoring spacecraft, the duration and intensity of the substorm events as well as the behaviour of the electrojet currents from the ground magnetometer measurements. We compare the precipitation characteristics of the three substorms. The results show that the F-region electron density enhancements and dominant green and red auroral emission of the substorm activity during the storm recovery resembles average isolated substorm precipitation. However, the energy dissipated, even at the very end of a prolonged storm recovery, is very large compared to the typical energy content of isolated substorms. In the case studied here, the dissipation of the excess energy is observed over a 3-h long period of several consecutive substorm intensifications. Our findings suggest that the substorm energy dissipation varies between the storm phases.

  16. Active surge control for variable speed axial compressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu; Yang, Chunjie; Wu, Ping; Song, Zhihuan

    2014-09-01

    This paper discusses active surge control in variable speed axial compressors. A compression system equipped with a variable area throttle is investigated. Based on a given compressor model, a fuzzy logic controller is designed for surge control and a proportional speed controller is used for speed control. The fuzzy controller uses measurements of the change of pressure rise as well as the change of mass flow to determine the throttle opening. The presented approach does not require the knowledge of system equilibrium or the surge line. Numerical simulations show promising results. The proposed fuzzy logic controller performs better than a backstepping controller and is capable to suppress surge at different operating points. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Relationship between substorms and storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamide, Y.

    1980-01-01

    In an attempt to deduce a plausible working model of the relationship between magnetospheric substorms and storms, recent relevant studies of various processes occurring during disturbed periods are integrated along with some theoretical suggestions. It has been shown that the main phase of geomagnetic storms is associated with the successive occurrence of intense substorms and with the sustained southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). However, these relations are only qualitatively understood, and thus basic questions remain unanswered involving the hypothesis whether a magnetic storm is a non-linear (or linear) superposition of intense substorms, each of which constitutes an elementary storm, or the main phase of magnetic storms occurs as a result of the intense southward IMF which enhances magnetospheric convection and increases occurrence probability of substorms. (Auth.)

  18. Thyroid storm: an updated review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiha, Maguy; Samarasinghe, Shanika; Kabaker, Adam S

    2015-03-01

    Thyroid storm, an endocrine emergency first described in 1926, remains a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. No laboratory abnormalities are specific to thyroid storm, and the available scoring system is based on the clinical criteria. The exact mechanisms underlying the development of thyroid storm from uncomplicated hyperthyroidism are not well understood. A heightened response to thyroid hormone is often incriminated along with increased or abrupt availability of free hormones. Patients exhibit exaggerated signs and symptoms of hyperthyroidism and varying degrees of organ decompensation. Treatment should be initiated promptly targeting all steps of thyroid hormone formation, release, and action. Patients who fail medical therapy should be treated with therapeutic plasma exchange or thyroidectomy. The mortality of thyroid storm is currently reported at 10%. Patients who have survived thyroid storm should receive definite therapy for their underlying hyperthyroidism to avoid any recurrence of this potentially fatal condition. © The Author(s) 2013.

  19. Planning for partnerships: Maximizing surge capacity resources through service learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Lavonne M; Reams, Paula K; Canclini, Sharon B

    2015-01-01

    Infectious disease outbreaks and natural or human-caused disasters can strain the community's surge capacity through sudden demand on healthcare activities. Collaborative partnerships between communities and schools of nursing have the potential to maximize resource availability to meet community needs following a disaster. This article explores how communities can work with schools of nursing to enhance surge capacity through systems thinking, integrated planning, and cooperative efforts.

  20. Experimental Study on Noise Characteristic of Centrifugal Compressor Surge

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Qichao; Zhao, Yuanyang; SHU, Yue; LI, Xiaosa; LI, Liansheng

    2016-01-01

    The centrifugal air compressor test rig is was designed and established. The experimental study was carried out on the surge characteristics of centrifugal compressor including the pressure in the pipe and the noise characteristics under different rotation speed. The tested results showed that both the suction pressure and discharge pressure fluctuation increase under surge condition and the amplitude of discharge pressure fluctuation is significantly higher than that of suction pressure. In ...

  1. Dynamic stability analysis of caisson breakwater in lifetime considering the annual frequency of severe storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu-chi; Wang, Yuan-zhan; Hong, Ning-ning

    2015-04-01

    In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.

  2. Study of the mid-latitude ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms in the European region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berényi, Kitti Alexandra; Barta, Veronika; Kis, Arpad

    2016-07-01

    Geomagnetic storms affect the ionospheric regions of the terrestrial upper atmosphere through different physical and atmospheric processes. The phenomena that can be regarded as a result of these processes, generally is named as "ionospheric storm". The processes depend on altitude, segment of the day, the geomagnetic latitude and longitude, strength of solar activity and the type of the geomagnetic storm. We examine the data of ground-based radio wave ionosphere sounding measurements of European ionospheric stations (mainly the data of Nagycenk Geophysical Observatory) in order to determine how and to what extent a geomagnetic disturbance of a certain strength affects the mid-latitude ionospheric regions in winter and in summer. For our analysis we used disturbed time periods between November 2012 and June 2015. Our results show significant changing of the ionospheric F2 layer parameters on strongly disturbed days compared to quiet ones. We show that the critical frequencies (foF2) increase compared to their quiet day value when the ionospheric storm was positive. On the other hand, the critical frequencies become lower, when the storm was negative. In our analysis we determined the magnitude of these changes on the chosen days. For a more complete analysis we compare also the evolution of the F2 layer parameters of the European ionosonde stations on a North-South geographic longitude during a full storm duration. The results present the evolution of an ionospheric storm over a geographic meridian. Furthermore, we compared the two type of geomagnetic storms, namely the CME caused geomagnetic storm - the so-called Sudden impulse (Si) storms- and the HSS (High Speed Solar Wind Streams) caused geomagnetic storms -the so-called Gradual storms (Gs)- impact on the ionospheric F2-layer (foF2 parameter). The results show a significant difference between the effect of Si and of the Gs storms on the ionospheric F2-layer.

  3. Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, Curt D.; Berkowitz, Paul; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Logan, Joshua B.

    2013-01-01

    Two inundation events in 2011 underscored the potential for elevated water levels to damage infrastructure and affect terrestrial ecosystems on the low-lying Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The goal of this study was to compare passive "bathtub" inundation models based on geographic information systems (GIS) to those that include dynamic water levels caused by wave-induced set-up and run-up for two end-member island morphologies: Midway, a classic atoll with islands on the shallow (2-8 m) atoll rim and a deep, central lagoon; and Laysan, which is characterized by a deep (20-30 m) atoll rim and an island at the center of the atoll. Vulnerability to elevated water levels was assessed using hindcast wind and wave data to drive coupled physics-based numerical wave, current, and water-level models for the atolls. The resulting model data were then used to compute run-up elevations using a parametric run-up equation under both present conditions and future sea-level-rise scenarios. In both geomorphologies, wave heights and wavelengths adjacent to the island shorelines increased more than three times and four times, respectively, with increasing values of sea-level rise, as more deep-water wave energy could propagate over the atoll rim and larger wind-driven waves could develop on the atoll. Although these increases in water depth resulted in decreased set-up along the islands’ shorelines, the larger wave heights and longer wavelengths due to sea-level rise increased the resulting wave-induced run-up. Run-up values were spatially heterogeneous and dependent on the direction of incident wave direction, bathymetry, and island configuration. Island inundation was modeled to increase substantially when wave-driven effects were included, suggesting that inundation and impacts to infrastructure and terrestrial habitats will occur at lower values of predicted sea-level rise, and thus sooner in the 21st century, than suggested

  4. Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

  5. Performance of Surge Arrester Installation to Enhance Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mbunwe Muncho Josephine

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of abnormal voltages on power system equipment and appliances in the home have raise concern as most of the equipments are very expensive. Each piece of electrical equipment in an electrical system needs to be protected from surges. To prevent damage to electrical equipment, surge protection considerations are paramount to a well designed electrical system. Lightning discharges are able to damage electric and electronic devices that usually have a low protection level and these are influenced by current or voltage pulses with a relatively low energy, which are induced by lightning currents. This calls for proper designed and configuration of surge arresters for protection on the particular appliances. A more efficient non-linear surge arrester, metal oxide varistor (MOV, should be introduced to handle these surges. This paper shows the selection of arresters laying more emphasis on the arresters for residential areas. In addition, application and installation of the arrester will be determined by the selected arrester. This paper selects the lowest rated surge arrester as it provides insulation when the system is under stress. It also selected station class and distribution class of arresters as they act as an open circuit under normal system operation and to bring the system back to its normal operation mode as the transient voltage is suppressed. Thus, reduces the risk of damage, which the protection measures can be characterized, by the reduction value of the economic loss to an acceptable level.

  6. Tsunami vs Infragravity Surge: Statistics and Physical Character of Extreme Runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, P. J.; Montoya, L. H.

    2017-12-01

    Motivated by recent observations of energetic and impulsive infragravity (IG) flooding events - also known as sneaker waves - we will present recent work on the relative probabilities and dynamics of extreme flooding events from tsunamis and long period wind wave events. The discussion will be founded on videos and records of coastal flooding by both recent tsunamis and IG, such as those in the Philippines during Typhoon Haiyan. From these observations, it is evident that IG surges may approach the coast as breaking bores with periods of minutes; a very tsunami-like character. Numerical simulations will be used to estimate flow elevations and speeds from potential IG surges, and these will be compared with similar values from tsunamis, over a range of different beach profiles. We will examine the relative rareness of each type of flooding event, which for large values of IG runup is a particularly challenging topic. For example, for a given runup elevation or flooding speed, the related tsunami return period may be longer than that associated with IG, implying that deposit information associated with such elevations or speeds are more likely to be caused by IG. Our purpose is to provide a statistical and physical discriminant between tsunami and IG, such that in areas exposed to both, a proper interpretation of overland transport, deposition, and damage is possible.

  7. Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

  8. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joselyn, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs

  9. The impact of solar flares and magnetic storms on humans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joselyn, J.A. (NOAA, Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, CO (United States))

    1992-03-01

    Three classes of solar emanations, namely, photon radiation from solar flares, solar energetic particles, and inhomogeneities in the solar wind that drive magnetic storms, are examined, and their effects on humans and technological systems are discussed. Solar flares may disrupt radio communications in the HF and VLF ranges. Energetic particles pose a special hazard at low-earth orbit and above, where they can penetrate barriers such as spacesuits and aluminum and destroy cells and solid state electronics. Energetic solar particles also influence terrestrial radio waves propagating through polar regions. Magnetic storms may disturb the operation of navigation instruments, power lines and pipelines, and satellites; they give rise to ionospheric storms which affect radio communication at all latitudes. There is also a growing body of evidence that changes in the geomagnetic field affect biological systems. 3 refs.

  10. Changing statistics of storms in the North Atlantic?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von; Guddal, J.; Iden, K.A.; Jonsson, T.; Perlwitz, J.; Reistad, M.; Ronde, J. de; Schmidt, H.; Zorita, E.

    1993-01-01

    Problems in the present discussion about increasing storminess in the North Atlantic area are discusesd. Observational data so far available do not indicate a change in the storm statistics. Output from climate models points to an itensified storm track in the North Atlantic, but because of the limited skill of present-day climate models in simulating high-frequency variability and regional details any such 'forecast' has to be considered with caution. A downscaling procedure which relates large-scale time-mean aspects of the state of the atmosphere and ocean to the local statistics of storms is proposed to reconstruct past variations of high-frequency variability in the atmosphere (storminess) and in the sea state (wave statistics). First results are presented. (orig.)

  11. Improved PV system reliability results from surge evaluations at Sandia National Laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell H. Bonn; Sigifredo Gonzalez

    2000-01-01

    Electrical surges on ac and dc inverter power wiring and diagnostic cables have the potential to shorten the lifetime of power electronics. These surges may be caused by either nearby lightning or capacitor switching transients. This paper contains a description of ongoing surge evaluations of PV power electronics and surge mitigation hardware at Sandia

  12. Thromboembolic complications of thyroid storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, T; Benjamin, S; Cozma, L

    2014-01-01

    Thyroid storm is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication of hyperthyroidism. Early recognition and prompt treatment are essential. Atrial fibrillation can occur in up to 40% of patients with thyroid storm. Studies have shown that hyperthyroidism increases the risk of thromboembolic events. There is no consensus with regard to the initiation of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in severe thyrotoxicosis. Anticoagulation is not routinely initiated if the risk is low on a CHADS2 score; however, this should be considered in patients with thyroid storm or severe thyrotoxicosis with impending storm irrespective of the CHADS2 risk, as it appears to increase the risk of thromboembolic episodes. Herein, we describe a case of thyroid storm complicated by massive pulmonary embolism. Diagnosis of thyroid storm is based on clinical findings. Early recognition and prompt treatment could lead to a favourable outcome.Hypercoagulable state is a recognised complication of thyrotoxicosis.Atrial fibrillation is strongly associated with hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm.Anticoagulation should be considered for patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and atrial fibrillation irrespective of the CHADS2 score.Patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and clinical evidence of thrombosis should be immediately anticoagulated until hyperthyroidism is under control.

  13. IRI STORM validation over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

    2014-05-01

    The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

  14. Surge of a Complex Glacier System - The Current Surge of the Bering-Bagley Glacier System, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzfeld, U. C.; McDonald, B.; Trantow, T.; Hale, G.; Stachura, M.; Weltman, A.; Sears, T.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding fast glacier flow and glacial accelerations is important for understanding changes in the cryosphere and ultimately in sea level. Surge-type glaciers are one of four types of fast-flowing glaciers --- the other three being continuously fast-flowing glaciers, fjord glaciers and ice streams --- and the one that has seen the least amount of research. The Bering-Bagley Glacier System, Alaska, the largest glacier system in North America, surged in 2011 and 2012. Velocities decreased towards the end of 2011, while the surge kinematics continued to expand. A new surge phase started in summer and fall 2012. In this paper, we report results from airborne observations collected in September 2011, June/July and September/October 2012 and in 2013. Airborne observations include simultaneously collected laser altimeter data, videographic data, GPS data and photographic data and are complemented by satellite data analysis. Methods range from classic interpretation of imagery to analysis and classification of laser altimeter data and connectionist (neural-net) geostatistical classification of concurrent airborne imagery. Results focus on the characteristics of surge progression in a large and complex glacier system (as opposed to a small glacier with relatively simple geometry). We evaluate changes in surface elevations including mass transfer and sudden drawdowns, crevasse types, accelerations and changes in the supra-glacial and englacial hydrologic system. Supraglacial water in Bering Glacier during Surge, July 2012 Airborne laser altimeter profile across major rift in central Bering Glacier, Sept 2011

  15. A new wave-current online information system for oil spill contingency planning (WAVCIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, G.W.

    2001-01-01

    A Wave Current Information System (WAVCIS) for coastal Louisiana was presented. WAVCIS is an online oceanographic and meteorological observing system that provides many benefits to oil spill contingency planning. The system provides wave information such as wave height, period, direction of propagation, water level, surge, water column velocity profiles and meteorological conditions on a near real time basis. The information is gathered from several stations along Louisiana's coast in the Gulf of Mexico and is transmitted via cellular satellite telephone to a base station at Louisiana State University where it is then made available on the Internet. The database provides information regarding emergency response decision tools for agencies faced with decision making during storm threats or during coordination of an oil spill response operation. It also provides information needed for assisting operations support for offshore industries, commerce and trade. In addition, it can be used to obtain input boundary conditions for numerical modelling of surface and underwater oil and gas or mixtures of oil and gas. It was concluded that WAVCIS provides several benefits, including better cursory assessment of oil spill migration, precision numerical modeling of casts for oil spill trajectories, an important archived data set to assess trajectory modeling, and real-time environmental conditions for vessel operators using dispersants and in situ burning methods. 3 refs., 17 figs

  16. Storm-driven sediment transport in Massachusetts Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, J.C.; Butman, B.; Dalyander, P.S.

    2008-01-01

    Massachusetts Bay is a semi-enclosed embayment in the western Gulf of Maine about 50 km wide and 100 km long. Bottom sediment resuspension is controlled predominately by storm-induced surface waves and transport by the tidal- and wind-driven circulation. Because the Bay is open to the northeast, winds from the northeast ('Northeasters') generate the largest surface waves and are thus the most effective in resuspending sediments. The three-dimensional oceanographic circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is used to explore the resuspension, transport, and deposition of sediment caused by Northeasters. The model transports multiple sediment classes and tracks the evolution of a multilevel sediment bed. The surficial sediment characteristics of the bed are coupled to one of several bottom-boundary layer modules that calculate enhanced bottom roughness due to wave-current interaction. The wave field is calculated from the model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Two idealized simulations were carried out to explore the effects of Northeasters on the transport and fate of sediments. In one simulation, an initially spatially uniform bed of mixed sediments exposed to a series of Northeasters evolved to a pattern similar to the existing surficial sediment distribution. A second set of simulations explored sediment-transport pathways caused by storms with winds from the northeast quadrant by simulating release of sediment at selected locations. Storms with wi