WorldWideScience

Sample records for stock market volatility

  1. Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh

    2011-01-01

    This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

  2. Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2008-01-01

    We provide empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the period 1969 to 1996.

  3. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  4. The volatility of stock market prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  5. Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

    2007-08-01

    Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.

  6. Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

    2018-01-01

    In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

  7. Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baumöhl, E.; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, S.; Výrost, T.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 490, č. 1 (2018), s. 1555-1574 ISSN 0378-4371 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Shock transmission * Stock markets * Granger causality network * Financial crisis * Spatial regression Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.243, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/E/kocenda-0487923.pdf

  8. Stock Market Volatility around National Elections

    OpenAIRE

    Bialkowski, Jedrzej; Gottschalk, Katrin; Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the countryspecific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a coalitio...

  9. Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?

    OpenAIRE

    Dimpfl, Thomas; Jank, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices’ realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high searches follow high volatility, and high volatility follows high searches. Using the latter feedback effect to predict volatility we find that search queries contain additional information about market...

  10. Stock Market Volatility: Examining North America, Europe and Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Gamini Premaratne; Lakshmi Bala

    2004-01-01

    An understanding of volatility in stock markets is important for determining the cost of capital and for assessing investment and leverage decisions as volatility is synonymous with risk. Substantial changes in volatility of financial markets are capable of having significant negative effects on risk averse investors. Using daily returns from 1992 to 2002, we investigate volatility co-movement between the Singapore stock market and the markets of US, UK, Hong Kong and Japan. In order to gauge...

  11. Asymmetry Effects of shocks in Chinese Stock Markets Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Ai Jun

    2013-01-01

    The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...

  12. Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

    2010-04-01

    The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

  13. Volatility of an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulkarni, V.; Deo, N.

    2006-07-01

    We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE index for the three-year period 2000- 2002. Random matrix analysis is carried out using daily returns of 70 stocks for several time windows of 85 days in 2001 to (i) do a brief comparative analysis with statistics of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations, in time regimes of different volatilities. While a bulk of eigenvalues falls within RMT bounds in all the time periods, we see that the largest (deviating) eigenvalue correlates well with the volatility of the index, the corresponding eigenvector clearly shows a shift in the distribution of its components from volatile to less volatile periods and verifies the qualitative association between participation and volatility (ii) observe that the Inverse participation ratio for the last eigenvector is sensitive to market fluctuations (the two quantities are observed to anti correlate significantly) (iii) set up a variability index, V whose temporal evolution is found to be significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index. MIRAMAR (author)

  14. Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Amram (Ron)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important

  15. Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taly I

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

  16. Investor’s Sentiments and Stock Market Volatility: an empirical evidence from emerging stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mobeen Ur Rehman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of efficient market hypothesis has prevailed the financial markets for a long time which says that the prices of the securities reflect all available information. This approach was mainly followed by the rational investors but with the passage of time, the concept of behavioral finance emerged due to some of the major global financial crashes. This concept states that there are investors trading in the market making decisions on the basis of sentiments not on any fundamental information. Such class of traders is called the noise traders and they are mainly responsible for any disruption in the returns of the securities. In this paper we will try to find whether these sentiments of the investors affect the returns of the securities listed on the Karachi stock exchange. We will use the investor sentiment index that uses the six proxies the data on which has been collected mainly from the Karachi stock exchange. Volatility of the stock market returns will be calculated and regressed with the sentimental equation discussed above as the independent variable. This study will help us to find out the extent to which these sentiments influence the stock market returns in weak form efficient market and also it will help us to identify the presence of such irrational noise traders in our financial market.

  17. Forecasting stock market volatility: Do realized skewness and kurtosis help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Dexiang; Liu, Jing; Ma, Feng; Chen, Wang

    2017-09-01

    In this study, we investigate the predictability of the realized skewness (RSK) and realized kurtosis (RKU) to stock market volatility, that has not been addressed in the existing studies. Out-of-sample results show that RSK, which can significantly improve forecast accuracy in mid- and long-term, is more powerful than RKU in forecasting volatility. Whereas these variables are useless in short-term forecasting. Furthermore, we employ the realized kernel (RK) for the robustness analysis and the conclusions are consistent with the RV measures. Our results are of great importance for portfolio allocation and financial risk management.

  18. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  19. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

    2009-01-01

    Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

  20. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  1. Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shapira

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.

  2. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  3. Stock Price Informativeness and Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in Emerging Markets: Evidence from China

    OpenAIRE

    Karen Jingrong Lin; Khondkar Karim; Clairmont Carter

    2014-01-01

    This study attempts to address two research questions on the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness. First, whether idiosyncratic return volatility is a valid proxy for stock price informativeness in emerging markets, and if it is, whether there exists a monotonic relationship between the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness throughout the whole sample. We find that the idiosyncratic return volatility reflects the stock price informativeness...

  4. Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Priyanka Singh; Brajesh Kumar; Pandey, Ajay

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates interdependence of fifteen world indices including an Indian market index in terms of return and volatility spillover effect. Interdependence of Indian stock market with other fourteen world markets in terms of long run integration, short run dependence (return spillover) and volatility spillover are investigated. These markets are that of are Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom and U...

  5. Volatility of Stock Markets (an Analysis of South Asian and G8 Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to make an analysis of volatility of stock markets between South Asian Stock Markets and Stock Markets of Group of Eight Countries. This study important for the investors whose want to invest in stock markets. This study helps investors to determine what stock market is more volatile. To make the analysis three South Asian stock markets and Group of Eight countries stock markets are selected. South Asian stock markets indexes include KSE 100 (Pakistan, SENSEX (India, ASPI (Sri Lanka, CAC 40 (France, DAX (Germany, S &P / TSX Composite (Canada, FTSE MIB (Italy, RTS (Russia, Nikkei 225 (Japan, S & P 500 (USA and FTSE 100 (UK. Data is collected from the period of January 1st 2005 to August 31st 2015. ARCH and GARCH model is used to analyze the volatility of South Asian Stock Markets and stock markets of Group of Eight Countries. The findings show that South Asian Stock Markets are less volatile while Stock Markets of Group of Eight Countries are high volatile. This study is useful for investment institutions and portfolio managers because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data.

  6. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  7. Investigate Volatility Jumps in Chinese Stock Index Future and Spot Markets Based on Realized Volatility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang qiang

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate Chinese stock index future and spot market's volatility jumps characteristics by using recentlydeveloped jumpstest(Barndorff-Nielsenand Shephard,2004).Thedataisoneyearhigh frequencydatafromthe period19/04/2012 to 19/04/2013. The empirical results show two important points. Firstly, the logarithm of adjusted realized volatility shows a high degree of autocorrelation and folows a normal distribution nearly perfect. These characteristics show a potential high forecast ability. Secondly,thedailyrealizedvolatilityjumpsshowalowdegreeofautocorrealtionbutwithsignificantvolatilityclusters.Ingeneral,thejumps component has a low percentage in realized volatility estimation for both future and spot market. On average, there is one significant jumpswithinevery ten continue trading days.Spotmarkets showshigherdegree of jumps,anda rapidly jumpscharacterises.It implies that jumps may transmission from spot to future market, and spot market dominate future market at some degree.

  8. The Response of Australian Stock, Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets to Foreign Asset Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Paul D. McNelis

    1993-01-01

    This paper is a data-analytic study of the relationships among international asset price volatilities and the time-varying correlations of asset returns in a small open economy (Australia) with international asset returns. Making use of recent developments in time-series approaches to volatility estimation, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and Kalman filtering, I show that the Australian stock market volatility is most closely linked with volatility in the UK stock market, ...

  9. Portfolio volatility of Islamic and conventional stock: The case of Indonesia stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldrin Herwany

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional finance suggests that the higher the risk of an investment, the higher the return it should give. Nevertheless, whether Islamic stocks that offer alternative investment in the stock market suggest different risk-return relationship still needs to be investigated. This empirical study is aimed at assessing risk-return behavior of Islamic stocks. This study employs cross sectional data of portfolio developed using beta-rank and market capitalization, in which daily data will better reflect the real volatility. This study also measures volatility of both conventional and Islamic stocks using Value-at-Risk (VaR. To check whether Islamic stocks are immune from any impact of financial crisis, this study utilizes three periods of observation, i.e., before, during and after the 2008 crisis. This study assesses risk and return using Multi-index model, in which variables tested are the respective fundamental factors. Results of this study will provide more accurate approach in Islamic stocks analysis.

  10. Entropy: A new measure of stock market volatility?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.; Menezes, Rui

    2012-11-01

    When uncertainty dominates understanding stock market volatility is vital. There are a number of reasons for that. On one hand, substantial changes in volatility of financial market returns are capable of having significant negative effects on risk averse investors. In addition, such changes can also impact on consumption patterns, corporate capital investment decisions and macroeconomic variables. Arguably, volatility is one of the most important concepts in the whole finance theory. In the traditional approach this phenomenon has been addressed based on the concept of standard-deviation (or variance) from which all the famous ARCH type models - Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models- depart. In this context, volatility is often used to describe dispersion from an expected value, price or model. The variability of traded prices from their sample mean is only an example. Although as a measure of uncertainty and risk standard-deviation is very popular since it is simple and easy to calculate it has long been recognized that it is not fully satisfactory. The main reason for that lies in the fact that it is severely affected by extreme values. This may suggest that this is not a closed issue. Bearing on the above we might conclude that many other questions might arise while addressing this subject. One of outstanding importance, from which more sophisticated analysis can be carried out, is how to evaluate volatility, after all? If the standard-deviation has some drawbacks shall we still rely on it? Shall we look for an alternative measure? In searching for this shall we consider the insight of other domains of knowledge? In this paper we specifically address if the concept of entropy, originally developed in physics by Clausius in the XIX century, which can constitute an effective alternative. Basically, what we try to understand is, which are the potentialities of entropy compared to the standard deviation. But why entropy? The answer lies on the fact

  11. Stock Markets Volatility Spillovers during Financial Crises : A DCC-MGARCH with Skew-t Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Bala, Dahiru A.; Takimoto, Taro

    2016-01-01

    We investigate stock markets volatility spillovers in selected emerging and major developed markets using multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models [namely; DVECH, CCC-MGARCH, CCC-VARMA-(A)MGARCH, VAR-EGARCH, BEKK-(A)MGARCH, DCC-MGARCH (with Gaussian and t distributions) and DCC-with-skew-t density]. The paper analyses the impacts of recent global financial crisis (2007{2009) on stock market volatility and examines their dynamic interactions using several MGARCH model variants. Structural break dete...

  12. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Hou, Ai Jun

    We use Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s (2016) economic policy uncertainty indices in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market volatility and correlation, primarily for the US and UK. Long-run US–UK stock market correlation depends positively on US...... economic policy uncertainty shocks. The dependence is asymmetric, with only positive shocks - increasing uncertainty - being of importance. The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks, while the UK long-run stock market...... volatility depends significantly on both. Allowing for US economic policy uncertainty shocks improves the out-of-sample forecasting of US–UK stock market correlation and enhances portfolio performance. Similar results apply to the long-run correlation between the US and Canada, China, and Germany....

  13. The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

  14. Long Memory in STOCK Market Volatility: the International Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chunxia; Hu, Sen; Xia, Bingying; Wang, Rui

    2012-08-01

    It is still a hot topic to catch the auto-dependence behavior of volatility. Here, based on the measurement of average volatility, under different observation window size, we investigated the dependence of successive volatility of several main stock indices and their simulated GARCH(1, 1) model, there were obvious linear auto-dependence in the logarithm of volatility under a small observation window size and nonlinear auto-dependence under a big observation. After calculating the correlation and mutual information of the logarithm of volatility for Dow Jones Industrial Average during different periods, we find that some influential events can change the correlation structure and the volatilities of different periods have distinct influence on that of the remote future. Besides, GARCH model could produce similar behavior of dependence as real data and long memory property. But our analyses show that the auto-dependence of volatility in GARCH is different from that in real data, and the long memory is undervalued by GARCH.

  15. An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okičić Jasmina

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.

  16. Stock Market Integration and Volatility Spillover:India and its Major Asian Counterparts

    OpenAIRE

    Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath; Mishra, Dr. R. K.

    2008-01-01

    Return and volatility spillover among Indian stock market with that of 12 other developed and emerging Asian countries over a period from November 1997 to April 2008 is studied. Daily opening and closing prices of all major equity indices from the sample countries are examined by applying the GARCH model [Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986)] to explore the possibility of stock market integration and volatility spillover among India and its major Asian counterparties. Apart from different degre...

  17. Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

  18. Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agya Atabani Adi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

  19. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

  20. Impact Of Volatility And Performance Of Major Stock Markets On Sarajevo Stock Exchange In 2008 – 2012 Period

    OpenAIRE

    Dzanic, Enis; Omerbegovic, Sead

    2014-01-01

    Previous research indicates that performance and volatility of small and regional stock markets can be influenced by the performance of major world exchanges such as New York, Frankfurt or Tokyo stock exchange. This research analyses weekly composite index data for SASE (Sarajevo Stock Exchange), NYSE, NIKKEI, and DAX indices, for the period from 2008 until the end of 2012. This time period contains significant events in the US and the rest of the world, including the housing bubble, and a gr...

  1. Comovements of Returns and Volatility in International Stock Markets: A High-Frequency Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piplack, J.; Beine, M.; Candelon, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes common factors in the continuous volatility component, co-extreme and co-jump behavior of a sample of stock market indices. In order to identify those components in stock price processes during a trading day we use high-frequency data and techniques. We show that in most of the

  2. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  3. Response Asymmetry in Spillover Volatility: an Empirical Study in the Indonesia and Singapore Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Siti Saadah

    2013-01-01

    Following the blueprint of the ASEAN integration 2015, the integration of the financial markets in this region will increase. This study investigates the existence of a volatility spillover from the Singaporean stock market into Indonesia, including its transmission pattern. Singapore, as an advanced country in the ASEAN region, has played an important role as the information leader in the market of this region, so that it is very possible that the shocks in the Singapore’s stock mark...

  4. On Volatility Swaps for Stock Market Forecast: Application Example CAC 40 French Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halim Zeghdoudi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps under Heston model (1993. To this end, we apply this model to the empirical financial data: CAC 40 French Index. More precisely, we make an application example for stock market forecast: CAC 40 French Index to price swap on the volatility using GARCH(1,1 model.

  5. The properties of realized volatility and realized correlation: Evidence from the Indian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos; Vortelinos, Dimitrios I.; Saha, Shrabani

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the properties of realized volatility and correlation series in the Indian stock market by employing daily data converting to monthly frequency of five different stock indices from January 2, 2006 to November 30, 2014. Using non-parametric estimation technique the properties examined include normality, long-memory, asymmetries, jumps, and heterogeneity. The realized volatility is a useful technique which provides a relatively accurate measure of volatility based on the actual variance which is beneficial for asset management in particular for non-speculative funds. The results show that realized volatility and correlation series are not normally distributed, with some evidence of persistence. Asymmetries are also evident in both volatilities and correlations. Both jumps and heterogeneity properties are significant; whereas, the former is more significant than the latter. The findings show that properties of volatilities and correlations in Indian stock market have similarities as that show in the stock markets in developed countries such as the stock market in the United States which is more prevalent for speculative business traders.

  6. Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nader Naifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

  7. Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irshad Hira

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

  8. Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Irshad Hira

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

  9. Simultaneous Volatility Transmissions and Spillover Effects: US and Hong Kong Stock and Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard Gannon

    2004-01-01

    Contemporaneous transmission effects across volatilities of the Hong Kong Stock and Index futures markets and futures volume of trade are tested by employing a structural systems approach. Competing measures of volatility spillover, constructed from the overnight U.S. S&P500 index futures, are tested and found to impact on the Hong Kong asset return volatility and volume of trade patterns. The examples utilize intra-day 15 minute sampled data from this medium sized Asia Pacific equity and der...

  10. Multifractals in Western Major STOCK Markets Historical Volatilities in Times of Financial Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.

  11. Impact of monetary policy on the volatility of stock market in pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Abdul Qayyum; Saba Anwa

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the linkages between the monetary policy and the stock market in Pakistan. The estimation technique employed includes Engle Granger two step procedure and the bivariate EGARCH method. The results indicate that any change in the monetary policy stance have a significant impact on the volatility of the stock market. Thus contributing to the ongoing debate in the monetary policy rule literature regarding the proactive and reactive approach.

  12. Effects of Daylight Saving Time changes on stock market volatility: a reply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet

    2011-12-01

    There is a rich array of evidence that suggests that changes in sleeping patterns affect an individual's decision-making processes. A nationwide sleeping-pattern change happens twice a year when the Daylight Saving Time (DST) change occurs. Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi argued in 2000 that a DST change lowers stock market returns. This study presents evidence that DST changes affect the relationship between stock market return and volatility. Empirical evidence suggests that the positive relationship between return and volatility becomes negative on the Mondays following DST changes.

  13. The impact of the introduction of index options on volatility and liquidity on the underlying stocks : Empirical evidence from the Asian stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan, Md Kamrul; Chowdhury, Shabyashachi

    2011-01-01

    The impact of the introduction of derivatives on the underlying stock is a debatable topic among the researchers. The issue is quite controversial as contradictory results have been obtained by researchers in various stock markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the volatility and the liquidity effect on the underlying stock after the introduction of index options. We have investigated volatility and liquidity effect by collecting sample data from the stock markets of India, Korea, T...

  14. Response Asymmetry in Spillover Volatility: An Empirical Study in the Indonesia and Singapore Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Saadah

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Following the blueprint of the ASEAN integration 2015, the integration of the financial markets in this region will increase. This study investigates the existence of a volatility spillover from the Singaporean stock market into Indonesia, including its transmission pattern. Singapore, as an advanced country in the ASEAN region, has played an important role as the information leader in the market of this region, so that it is very possible that the shocks in the Singapore’s stock market will be transmitted to another stock market in this region. Using TGARCH (1,1 model specification regarding the data of the daily return of the Indonesia market index (IHSG for the period of January 2008 – August 2012, it is observed that the shock that took place in the Singapore stock market is immediately transmitted to the Indonesia stock market with two important asymmetric patterns. The transmission of the shock from the Singapore stock exchange becomes stronger when this market (1 experiences a negative return, and (2 is in the bearish phase.  Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

    OpenAIRE

    Dahiru A. Bala; Taro Takimoto

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs) using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH) models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009) on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs) are lower compared w...

  15. The Volatility of Indonesia Shari’ah Capital Market Stock Price Toward Macro Economics Variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helma Malini

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Shari’ah stock market is also affected by many highly interrelated economic, social, political andother factor, same as the conventional stock market, the interaction between macroeconomic variablesand Shari’ah stock market creating volatility in the stock price as a response towards severalshocks. The sensitivity of Shari’ah stock market towards shocks happened related with the futureexpectation of micro and macro factor in one country which can be predict or unpredictable.There are six macroeconomic variables that used in this research; inflation, exchange rate, interestrate, dow jones index, crude oil palm price, and FED rate. Using vector error correction model(VECM, the result shows that domestic macroeconomic variables that significantly affect IndonesiaShari’ah compliance for long term, while for international macroeconomic variables the selectedvariable such as FED rate and Dow Jones Index are not significantly affected Indonesia Shari’ahcompliance both in short term and long term. Keywords: Indonesia Shari’ah compliance, Macro Economic Indicators, Impulse Response Function,Stock Price Volatility

  16. Forecasting volatility in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets.

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses the forecasting performance of historical volatility models and GARCH-class models of Shenzhen component index, Shanghai composite index and Hang Seng index at weekly and daily frequency under both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Under symmetric loss functions exclude Theil-U and HR, results suggest that historical volatility models provide a much better forecast than GARCH-class models both in weekly and daily frequency. Under asymmetric loss functions historical...

  17. Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Intraday Evidence from Indian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Ranjan Paital

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the relationship between stock return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spread within the scope of mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH and sequential information arrival hypothesis (SIAH in the Indian stock market using high frequency 5-minute data set over the period of 2 July 2012 to 31 December 2012. This is the first kind of study in India using bid-ask spread as an additional information variable along with trading volume to investigate the relationship with stock return volatility. Our empirical findings provide evidence of a positive contemporaneous relationship between return volatility and trading volume, and also between return volatility and bid-ask spread. Moreover, the results of Granger causality test show that the information content of trading volume and bid-ask spread are useful for predicting stock return volatility. Our results indicate that information arrival to investors tends to follow a sequential rather than a simultaneous process. This finding is consistent with the sequential information arrival hypothesis and contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

  18. Effects of daylight-saving time changes on stock market returns and stock market volatility: rebuttal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamstra, Mark J; Kramer, Lisa A; Levi, Maurice D

    2013-02-01

    In a 2011 reply to our 2010 comment in this journal, Berument and Dogen maintained their challenge to the existence of the negative daylight-saving effect in stock returns reported by Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi in 2000. Unfortunately, in their reply, Berument and Dogen ignored all of the points raised in the comment, failing even to cite the Kamstra, et al. comment. Berument and Dogen continued to use inappropriate estimation techniques, over-parameterized models, and low-power tests and perhaps most surprisingly even failed to replicate results they themselves reported in their previous paper, written by Berument, Dogen, and Onar in 2010. The findings reported by Berument and Dogen, as well as by Berument, Dogen, and Onar, are neither well-supported nor well-reasoned. We maintain our original objections to their analysis, highlight new serious empirical and theoretical problems, and emphasize that there remains statistically significant evidence of an economically large negative daylight-saving effect in U.S. stock returns. The issues raised in this rebuttal extend beyond the daylight-saving effect itself, touching on methodological points that arise more generally when deciding how to model financial returns data.

  19. Asymmetry Effects in Volatility on the Major European Stock Markets: the EGARCH Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Olbrys

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric impact of innovations on volatility in the case of the largest European stock markets in the United Kingdom, France and Germany by using the EGARCH based approach. The sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2016, and it includes the 2007 U.S. subprime crisis. The robustness analysis of empirical results is provided with respect to the whole sample and three adjacent subsamples, each of equal size: 1 the pre-crisis, 2 the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and 3 the post-crisis periods. The GFC periods are formally detected by using a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. Moreover, the common trading window procedure is employed to avoid the nonsynchronous trading problem in the group of investigated markets and to get the overlapping information set. We estimate univariate EGARCH models based on daily percentage logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes: FTSE100 (London, CAC40 (Paris, and DAX (Frankfurt. Pronounced negative asymmetry effects in volatility are presented in the case of all markets and are rather robust to the choice of the period. Our findings are consistent with the literature and suggest that the major European stock markets are more sensitive to ’bad’ than ‘good’ news.

  1. Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Bui Quang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

  2. How Does the Financial Crisis Affect Volatility Behavior and Transmission Among European Stock Markets?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faten Ben Slimane

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The spread of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 was rapid, and impacted the functioning and the performance of financial markets. Due to the importance of this phenomenon, this study aims to explain the impact of the crisis on stock market behavior and interdependence through the study of the intraday volatility transmission. This paper investigates the patterns of linkage dynamics among three European stock markets—France, Germany, and the UK—during the global financial crisis, by analyzing the intraday dynamics of linkages among these markets during both calm and turmoil phases. We apply a VAR-EGARCH (Vector Autoregressive Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework to high frequency five-minute intraday returns on selected representative stock indices. We find evidence that interrelationship among European markets increased substantially during the period of crisis, pointing to an amplification of spillovers. In addition, during this period, French and UK markets herded around German market, possibly explained by behavior factors influencing the stock markets on or near dates of extreme events. Germany was identified as the hub of financial and economic activity in Europe during the period of study. These findings have important implications for both policymakers and investors by contributing to better understanding the transmission of financial shocks in Europe.

  3. Volatility Degree Forecasting of Stock Market by Stochastic Time Strength Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiyan Mo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of the applications of artificial neural networks in economic and financial forecasting, a stochastic time strength function is introduced in the backpropagation neural network model to predict the fluctuations of stock price changes. In this model, stochastic time strength function gives a weight for each historical datum and makes the model have the effect of random movement, and then we investigate and forecast the behavior of volatility degrees of returns for the Chinese stock market indexes and some global market indexes. The empirical research is performed in testing the prediction effect of SSE, SZSE, HSI, DJIA, IXIC, and S&P 500 with different selected volatility degrees in the established model.

  4. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  5. Stock Market Volatility Dynamics around National Elections : Empirical Evidence from Asian Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kon Wah

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates a sample of 8 Asian countries to test whether the stock market volatility would be induced higher during national election periods. Our empirical findings show the country-specific component of variance in election periods can easily reach up to 43% higher than the no election periods. It indicates that the investors are shocked with the election outcomes and investors’ sentiments are affected by the political events, no matter how well the preparation is made by inves...

  6. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  7. Risk assessment and stock market volatility in the Eurozone: 1986-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menezes, Rui; Oliveira, Álvaro

    2015-04-01

    This paper studies the stock market return's volatility in the Eurozone as an input for evaluating the market risk. Stock market returns are endogenously determined by long-term interest rate changes and so is the return's conditional variance. The conditional variance is the time-dependent variance of the underlying variable. In other words, it is the variance of the returns measured at each moment t, so it changes through time depending on the specific market structure at each time observation. Thus, a multivariate EGARCH model is proposed to capture the complex nature of this network. By network, in this context, we mean the chain of stock exchanges that co-move and interact in such a way that a shock in one of them propagates up to the other ones (contagion). Previous studies provide evidence that the Eurozone stock exchanges are deeply integrated. The results indicate that asymmetry and leverage effects exist along with fat tails and endogeneity. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests provide clear evidence that the multivariate EGARCH model performs better than the univariate counterpart to predict the behavior of returns both before and after the 2008 crisis.

  8. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  9. Impact of Derivative Trading On Stock Market Volatility in India: A Study of S&P CNX Nifty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruchika GAHLOT

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The Purpose of the study is to examine the impact of derivative trading on stock market volatility. The sample data consist of closing prices of S&P CNX Nifty as well as closing prices of five derivative stocks and five non derivative stocks from April 1, 2002 to March 31, 2005. The study uses GARCH model to capture nature of volatility over time and volatility clustering phenomenon of data. The evidences suggest that there is no significant change in the volatility of S &P CNX Nifty, but the structure of volatility has changed to some extent. However, results show mixed effect in case of 10 individual stocks. These results can assist investors in making investment decision. It also helps to identify need for regulation.

  10. Parallel Prediction of Stock Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Jenq

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Volatility is a measurement of the risk of financial products. A stock will hit new highs and lows over time and if these highs and lows fluctuate wildly, then it is considered a high volatile stock. Such a stock is considered riskier than a stock whose volatility is low. Although highly volatile stocks are riskier, the returns that they generate for investors can be quite high. Of course, with a riskier stock also comes the chance of losing money and yielding negative returns. In this project, we will use historic stock data to help us forecast volatility. Since the financial industry usually uses S&P 500 as the indicator of the market, we will use S&P 500 as a benchmark to compute the risk. We will also use artificial neural networks as a tool to predict volatilities for a specific time frame that will be set when we configure this neural network. There have been reports that neural networks with different numbers of layers and different numbers of hidden nodes may generate varying results. In fact, we may be able to find the best configuration of a neural network to compute volatilities. We will implement this system using the parallel approach. The system can be used as a tool for investors to allocating and hedging assets.

  11. Assessing the stock market volatility for different sectors in Malaysia by using standard deviation and EWMA methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Shakila; Ahmad, Noryati; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Nowadays, the study on volatility concept especially in stock market has gained so much attention from a group of people engaged in financial and economic sectors. The applications of volatility concept in financial economics can be seen in valuation of option pricing, estimation of financial derivatives, hedging the investment risk and etc. There are various ways to measure the volatility value. However for this study, two methods are used; the simple standard deviation and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). The focus of this study is to measure the volatility on three different sectors of business in Malaysia, called primary, secondary and tertiary by using both methods. The daily and annual volatilities of different business sector based on stock prices for the period of 1 January 2014 to December 2014 have been calculated in this study. Result shows that different patterns of the closing stock prices and return give different volatility values when calculating using simple method and EWMA method.

  12. Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

  13. Long Memory in Stock Market Volatility and the Volatility-in-Mean Effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Zhu, Jie

    We extend the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) model for daily stock return data with long memory in return volatility of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) by introducing a possible volatility-in-mean effect. To avoid that the long memory property of volatility carries over to r...

  14. Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Shabri Abd Majid

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352

  15. Volatility-constrained multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis: Cross-correlation among Mainland China, US, and Hong Kong stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Minjia; Li, Qingchen

    2017-04-01

    This study focuses on multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of the different volatility intervals of Mainland China, US, and Hong Kong stock markets. A volatility-constrained multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (VC-MF-DCCA) method is proposed to study the volatility conductivity of Mainland China, US, and Hong Kong stock markets. Empirical results indicate that fluctuation may be related to important activities in real markets. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) stock market is more influential than the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) stock market. Furthermore, the SCI stock market is more influential than the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market. The conductivity between the HSI and SCI stock markets is the strongest. HSI was the most influential market in the large fluctuation interval of 1991 to 2014. The autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average method is used to verify the validity of VC-MF-DCCA. Results show that VC-MF-DCCA is effective.

  16. Intra- and Inter-Regional Return and Volatility Spillovers Across Emerging and Developing Markets: Evidence from Stock Indices and Stock Index Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Yarovaya, Larisa; Brzeszczynski, Janusz; Lau, Marco Chi Keung

    2016-01-01

    We provide empirical evidence on the patterns of intra- and inter-regional transmission of information across 10 developed and 11 emerging markets in Asia, the Americas, Europe and Africa using both stock indices and stock index futures. The main transmission channels are examined in the period from 2005 to 2014 through the analysis of return and volatility spillovers around the most recent crises based on the generalized vector autoregressive framework. Our findings demonstrate that markets ...

  17. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  18. The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2007-01-01

    Recent empirical evidence demonstrates the presence of an important long memory component in realized asset return volatility. We specify and estimate multivariate models for the joint dynamics of stock returns and volatility that allow for long memory in volatility without imposing this property...... on returns. Asset pricing theory imposes testable cross-equation restrictions on the system that are not rejected in our preferred specifications, which include a strong financial leverage effect. We show that the impact of volatility shocks on stock prices is small and short-lived, in spite of a positive...

  19. Investigation of the Greek Stock Exchange volatility and the impact of foreign markets from 2007 to 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Sariannidis

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this paper - The current paper aims to analyze the impact of the debt crisis on the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility. The research also examines the impact of powerful foreign capital markets on the Greek Stock Exchange market, the seasonality returns (Day-of-the-Week effect and the volatility structure. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis of data is made by employing the GARCH models, and more specifically the GJR-GARCH model. Findings - The results of the GJR-GARCH model demonstrate that the debt crisis and, therefore, its consequences increase the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility and the Greek market does not react asymmetrically to negative information. In addition, the results indicate the importance of foreign markets in shaping the first moment of the FTSE / ASE 20 index and the presence of the Reverse Day of the Week effect. Research limitations/implications - The implication of volatility measurement is vital in determining the cost for investment, security pricing markets, hedging and other trading strategies, and also for regulatory policies conducted within financial markets. Originality/value - The paper may prove helpful to regulatory authorities, investors and financial analysts to understand the structure and behavior of volatility in a small stock exchange market under crisis.

  20. Volatility Modeling, Seasonality and Risk-Return Relationship in GARCH-in-Mean Framework: The Case of Indian Stock and Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Brajesh Kumar; Singh, Priyanka

    2008-01-01

    This paper is based on an empirical study of volatility, risk premium and seasonality in risk-return relation of the Indian stock and commodity markets. This investigation is conducted by means of the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the mean model (GARCH-in-Mean) introduced by Engle et al. (1987). A systematic approach to model volatility in returns is presented. Volatility clustering and asymmetric nature is examined for Indian stock and commodity markets. The risk-r...

  1. Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahiru A. Bala

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009 on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs are lower compared with correlations among DMs and increase during financial crises. Furthermore, we detect evidence of volatility spillovers and observe that own-volatility spillovers are higher than cross-volatility spillovers for EMs suggesting that shocks have not been substantially transmitted among EMs compared to DMs. We also find significant asymmetric behaviour in DMs while weak evidence is detected for EMs. Finally, the DCC-with-skewed-t density model provided improved diagnostics compared to other models partly due to its taking into account fat tails and skewed features often present in financial returns.

  2. Volatility measurement with directional change in Chinese stock market: Statistical property and investment strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junjun; Xiong, Xiong; He, Feng; Zhang, Wei

    2017-04-01

    The stock price fluctuation is studied in this paper with intrinsic time perspective. The event, directional change (DC) or overshoot, are considered as time scale of price time series. With this directional change law, its corresponding statistical properties and parameter estimation is tested in Chinese stock market. Furthermore, a directional change trading strategy is proposed for invest in the market portfolio in Chinese stock market, and both in-sample and out-of-sample performance are compared among the different method of model parameter estimation. We conclude that DC method can capture important fluctuations in Chinese stock market and gain profit due to the statistical property that average upturn overshoot size is bigger than average downturn directional change size. The optimal parameter of DC method is not fixed and we obtained 1.8% annual excess return with this DC-based trading strategy.

  3. The Degree of Financial Liberalization and Aggregated Stock-return Volatility in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Umutlu, M.; Akdeniz, L.; Salih, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we address whether the degree of financial liberalization affects the aggregated total volatility of stock returns by considering the time-varying nature of financial liberalization. We also explore channels through which the degree of financial liberalization impacts aggregated total

  4. The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2007-01-01

    on returns. Asset pricing theory imposes testable cross-equation restrictions on the system that are not rejected in our preferred specifications, which include a strong financial leverage effect. We show that the impact of volatility shocks on stock prices is small and short-lived, in spite of a positive...

  5. The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    on returns. Asset pricing theory imposes testable cross- equation restrictions on the system that are not rejected in our preferred specifications, which include a strong financial leverage effect. We show that the impact of volatility shocks on stock prices is small and short-lived, in spite of a positive...

  6. The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    on returns. Asset pricing theory imposes testable cross-equation restrictions on the system that are not rejected in our preferred specifications, which include a strong financial leverage effect. We show that the impact of volatility shocks on stock prices is small and short-lived, in spite of a positive...

  7. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  8. Volatility effect and the role of firm quality factor in returns: Evidence from the Indian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asheesh Pandey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the study, we examine if there are any volatility patterns in stock returns for India. Data are employed for 493 companies that form part of BSE 500 index from March 2000 to November 2013. Unlike previous international evidence, no volatility anomaly is observed. Consistent with theory, high volatility stocks significantly outperform low volatility stocks. Alternative risk models fail to explain the volatility effect. Consistent with prior research, we confirm the role of firm quality factor in explaining these volatility patterns. Cash flow variability seems to be a more appropriate measure of firm quality compared to profitability.

  9. Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

  10. Volatility forecasting and value-at-risk estimation in emerging markets: the case of the stock market index portfolio in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modelling of volatility is important as it relates to the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR. The RiskMetrics model to forecast volatility is the benchmark in the financial sector. In an important regulatory innovation, the Basel Committee has proposed the use of an internal method for modelling VaR instead of the strict use of the benchmark model. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of RiskMetrics in comparison to other models of volatility forecasting, such as some family classes of the Generalised Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models, in forecasting the VaR in emerging markets. This paper makes use of the stock market index portfolio, the All-Share Index, as a case study to evaluate the market risk in emerging markets. The paper underlines the importance of asymmetric behaviour for VaR forecasting in emerging markets’ economies.

  11. Indication of multiscaling in the volatility return intervals of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2008-01-01

    The distribution of the return intervals τ between price volatilities above a threshold height q for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined nonlinear mechanism, we investigate intraday data sets of 500 stocks which consist of Standard & Poor’s 500 index. We show that the cumulative distribution of return intervals has systematic deviations from scaling. We support this finding by studying the m -th moment μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , which show a certain trend with the mean interval ⟨τ⟩ . We generate surrogate records using the Schreiber method, and find that their cumulative distributions almost collapse to a single curve and moments are almost constant for most ranges of ⟨τ⟩ . Those substantial differences suggest that nonlinear correlations in the original volatility sequence account for the deviations from a single scaling law. We also find that the original and surrogate records exhibit slight tendencies for short and long ⟨τ⟩ , due to the discreteness and finite size effects of the records, respectively. To avoid as possible those effects for testing the multiscaling behavior, we investigate the moments in the range 10volatility.

  12. Multifractal in Volatility of Family Business Stocks Listed on Casablanca STOCK Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, we check for existence of multifractal in volatility of Moroccan family business stock returns and in volatility of Casablanca market index returns based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) technique. Empirical results show strong evidence of multifractal characteristics in volatility series of both family business stocks and market index. In addition, it is found that small variations in volatility of family business stocks are persistent, whilst small variations in volatility of market index are anti-persistent. However, large variations in family business volatility and market index volatility are both anti-persistent. Furthermore, multifractal spectral analysis based results show strong evidence that volatility in Moroccan family business companies exhibits more multifractality than volatility in the main stock market. These results may provide insightful information for risk managers concerned with family business stocks.

  13. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a two-component volatility model based on first moments of both components to describe the dynamics of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and the persistent part of volatility, respectively. The model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock ma...... markets. A positive or risk-premium effect exists between the return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for the return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on returns are tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component is much more important for the volatility dynamic process than is the volatile component. However, the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most...

  14. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    In this paper a two-component volatility model based on the component's first moment is introduced to describe the dynamic of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and persistent part of volatility respectively. Then the model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock m......, a positive or risk-premium effect exists between return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on return are also tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component accounts much more for volatility dynamic process than the volatile component. However the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most markets...

  15. On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jebabli, Ikram; Arouri, Mohamed; Teulon, Frédéric

    2014-01-01

    Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shock transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis and, namely after mid-2008, when stock markets become net transmitter of volatility shocks while crude oil becomes a net receiver. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance. - Highlights: • We study shock transmission between food, energy and financial markets. • We use a new time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. • There is volatility spillover from oil and stock markets to food. • Volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis, namely after mid-2008. • Augmenting a portfolio of foods with oil or stocks increases its performance

  16. Virtual Volatility, an Elementary New Concept with Surprising Stock Market Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prange, Richard; Silva, A. Christian

    2006-03-01

    Textbook investors start by predicting the future price distribution, PDF, of a candidate stock (or portfolio) at horizon T, e.g. a year hence. A (log)normal PDF with center (=drift =expected return) μT and width (=volatility) σT is often assumed on Central Limit Theorem grounds, i.e. by a random walk of daily (log)price increments δs. The standard deviation, stdev, of historical (ex post) δs `s is usually a fair predictor of the coming year's (ex ante) stdev(δs) = σdaily, but the historical mean E(δs) at best roughly limits the true, to be predicted, drift by μtrueT˜ μhistT ± σhistT. Textbooks take a PDF with σ ˜ σdaily and μ as somehow known, as if accurate predictions of μ were possible. It is elementary and presumably new to argue that an average of PDF's over a range of μ values should be taken, e.g. an average over forecasts by different analysts. We estimate that this leads to a PDF with a `virtual' volatility σ ˜ 1.3σdaily. It is indeed clear that uncertainty in the value of the expected gain parameter increases the risk of investment in that security by most measures, e. g. Sharpe's ratio μT/σT will be 30% smaller because of this effect. It is significant and surprising that there are investments which benefit from this 30% virtual increase in the volatility

  17. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  18. Effects of daylight-saving time changes on stock market volatility: a comment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamstra, Mark J; Kramer, Lisa A; Levi, Maurice D

    2010-12-01

    In a recent article in this journal, Berument, Dogan, and Onar (2010) challenged the existence of the previously documented daylight-saving effect. Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi's original finding (2000) was that average stock market returns on Mondays following time changes are economically and statistically significantly lower than typical Monday returns. Kamstra, et al. hypothesized that the effect may arise due to heightened anxiety or risk aversion on the part of market participants after they experience a 1-hr. disruption in their sleep habits, in accordance with prior findings in the psychology literature linking sleep desynchronosis with anxiety. Berument, et al. replicated the original findings using ordinary least squares estimation, but when they modeled the mean of returns using a method prone to producing biased estimates, they obtained puzzling results. The analysis here, based on standard, unbiased modeling techniques, shows that the daylight-saving effect remains intact in the U.S.

  19. Volatility forecasting with the wavelet transformation algorithm GARCH model: Evidence from African stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Tahir Ismail

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The daily returns of four African countries' stock market indices for the period January 2, 2000, to December 31, 2014, were employed to compare the GARCH(1,1 model and a newly proposed Maximal Overlap Discreet Wavelet Transform (MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model. The results showed that although both models fit the returns data well, the forecast produced by the GARCH(1,1 model underestimates the observed returns whereas the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model generates an accurate forecast value of the observed returns. The results generally showed that the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model best fits returns series for these African countries. Hence the proposed MODWT-GARCH should be applied on other context to further verify its validity.

  20. Volatility Spillovers Across User-Generated Content and Stock Market Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. van Dieijen (Myrthe); A. Borah (Abhishek); G.J. Tellis (Gerard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractVolatility is an important metric of financial performance, indicating uncertainty or risk. So, predicting and managing volatility is of interest to both company managers and investors. This study investigates whether volatility in user-generated content (UGC) can spill over to

  1. MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OSAZEE GODWIN OMOROKUNWA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock price volatility and few macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, GDP and interest rate. Annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2011 was used for this study. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH model was used in the empirical analysis. The findings of the study showed that stock prices in Nigeria are volatile. And that past information in the market have effect on stock price volatility in Nigeria. In addition, the study showed that interest rate and exchange have a weak effect on stock price volatility while inflation is the main determinant of stock price volatility in Nigeria. The authors recommend that inflation should be targeted as the main monetary policy aimed at directing the stock market.

  2. Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Kyongwook; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study supplements previous regime-switching studies on WTI crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of Brent oil, WTI oil, copper, gold and silver, and the S and P 500 index, but with varying high-to-low volatility ratios. The dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 Iraq war but decreasing correlations with the S and P 500 index. The commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises, while the S and P 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises. Implications are discussed.

  3. Is the stock market efficient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkiel, B G

    1989-03-10

    A stock market is said to be efficient if it accurately reflects all relevant information in determining security prices. Critics have asserted that share prices are far too volatile to be explained by changes in objective economic events-the October 1987 crash being a case in point. Although the evidence is not unambiguous, reports of the death of the efficient market hypothesis appear premature.

  4. Stock Market Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  5. Foreign institutional investments in India: An empirical analysis of dynamic interactions with stock market return and volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaishali S. Dhingra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions of foreign institutional investments with market returns and market volatility in India using both static and dynamic models based on daily data. The findings of both models show foreign investors as positive feedback traders while investing in the Indian market, and as negative feedback traders during their withdrawal. Using the impulse response functions based on vector autoregression, we find strong evidence that foreign institutional investments destabilise the market, particularly with selling activities, as they significantly increase the volatility.

  6. Implied Volatility and Rebalancing Timing: Market cycles and the relationship between implied volatility indices and stock index returns.

    OpenAIRE

    Holst, Niklas; Rønning, Harald

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance This paper studies market timing based upon the level of the VIX and compares VIX based portfolio rotations with modern rebalancing practices. The thesis analyses the outcomes of the different rebalancing and trading strategies, and compare them through different performance measures. The study finds that on average, rebalancing strategies based on the level of the VIX does not have significant positive returns compared to the standard dynamic rebalancing scheme ...

  7. Trading Mechanisms, Return’s Volatility, and Efficiency in the Casablance Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El Mehdi Ferrouhi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE This paper studies the impact of the stock market continuity on the returns volatility and on the market efficiency in the Casablanca Stock Exchange. For the most active stocks, the trading mechanism used is the continuous market which is preceded by a call market pre opening session. Results obtained concerning return volatility and efficiency under the two trading mechanisms show that the continuous market returns are more volatile than the call market returns and 50% of stocks studied show independence between variations.   Keywords: Trading mechanism, microstructure, call market, continuous market, efficiency, volatility

  8. Is stock market volatility asymmetric? A multi-period analysis for five countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.

    2018-06-01

    This study examines the asymmetry in the volatility of the returns of five indices, namely, PSI 20 (Portugal), ISEQ 20 (Ireland), MIB 30 (Italy), ATHEX 30 (Greece) and IBEX 35 (Spain) using daily data from 2004-2016. For this purpose, we estimate the GJR and EGARCH asymmetric models for the whole sample and then split it into three subperiods of approximately four years each to examine how the coefficient on asymmetry behaves over time. Our results for the full sample show that all indices exhibit different levels of asymmetry. When we consider the subsample analysis however results show that while there is mixed evidence from the first to the second subperiods, all returns evidence an increase in asymmetry from the second to the last subperiod.

  9. Syngas. The flexible solution in a volatile feed-stock market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wurzel, T. [Air Liquide Global E und C Solutions c/o Lurgi GmbH, Frankfurt a.M. (Germany)

    2013-11-01

    The paper presents the versatility of syngas allowing the extended application of new feedstock sources such as shale gas or coal to deliver fuels and chemicals traditionally derived from crude oil. In order to provide a holistic view on this topic of current interest, the syngas market, the pre-dominant production technologies and main economic consideration for selected applications are presented and analyzed. It can be concluded that a broad portfolio of well-mastered and referenced syngas production technologies which are continuously improved to meet actual market requirements (e.g. ability to valorize biomass) will remain key to enable economic solutions in a world characterized by growing dynamics with regards to the supply of (carbonaceous) feedstock. (orig.)

  10. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arfaoui Mongi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies. Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.

  11. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Arfaoui Mongi; Ben Rejeb Aymen

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We als...

  12. Volatility Mean Reversion and the Market Price of Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes sources of derivative pricing errors in a stochastic volatility model estimated on stock return data. It is shown that such pricing errors may reflect the existence of a market price of volatility risk, but also may be caused by estimation errors due to a slow mean reversion in

  13. Observability of market daily volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

    2016-02-01

    We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 to 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility σ(t) which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) where the r(t) are the daily returns of the market index and the ω(t) are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The relation r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) alone is unable to give an operative definition of the index volatility, which remains unobservable. On the contrary, we show that using the whole information available in the market, the index volatility can be operatively defined and detected.

  14. Spillovers among regional and international stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huen, Tan Bee; Arsad, Zainudin; Chun, Ooi Po

    2014-07-01

    Realizing the greater risk by the increase in the level of financial market integration, this study investigates the dynamic of international and regional stock markets co-movement among Asian countries with the world leading market, the US. The data utilized in this study comprises of weekly closing prices for four stock indices, that consists of two developing markets (Malaysia and China) and two developed markets (Japan and the US), and encompasses the period from January 1996 to December 2012. Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with the BEKK parameterization is employed to investigate the mean and volatility spillover effects among the selected stock indices. The results show significant mean spillover not only from the larger developed markets to smaller developing markets but also from the smaller developing markets to larger developed markets. Volatility spillover between the developed markets is found to be smaller than that between the developing markets. Conditional correlations among the stock markets are found to increase over the sample period. The findings of significant mean and volatility spillovers are considered as bad news for international investors as it reduces the benefit from portfolio diversification but act as useful information for investors to be more aware in diversifying their investment or stock selection.

  15. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Stock Market of the Czech Republic and Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Titizov, Toško

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibit...

  16. VOLATILITY AND KURTOSIS OF DAILY STOCK RETURNS AT MSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovski

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Prominent financial stock pricing models are built on assumption that asset returns follow a normal (Gaussian distribution. However, many authors argue that in the practice stock returns are often characterized by skewness and kurtosis, so we test the existence of the Gaussian distribution of stock returns and calculate the kurtosis of several stocks at the Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE. Obtaining information about the shape of distribution is an important step for models of pricing risky assets. The daily stock returns at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE are characterized by high volatility and non-Gaussian behaviors as well as they are extremely leptokurtic. The analysis of MSE time series stock returns determine volatility clustering and high kurtosis. The fact that daily stock returns at MSE are not normally distributed put into doubt results that rely heavily on this assumption and have significant implications for portfolio management. We consider this stock market as good representatives of emerging markets. Therefore, we argue that our results are valid for other similar emerging stock markets.

  17. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  18. Stock Market Savvy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okula, Susan

    2003-01-01

    This issue of Keying In, the newsletter of the National Business Education Association, focuses upon teaching young adults how to develop both investment strategies and an understanding of the stock market. The first article, "Sound Investing Know-How: A Must for Today's Young Adults," describes how young adults can plan for their own…

  19. Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Likidite Ölçülerinin Karşılaştırılması ve Likidite Volatilitesi Hisse Senedi Getirisi Arasındaki İlişki (Comparison of Liquidity Measures and The Relationship Between Volatility of Liquidity and Stock Returns in Turkish Stock Market)

    OpenAIRE

    Cüneyt AKAR

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to determine the relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity in Turkish Stock Market. It is also investigated whether various liquidity measures sort the stocks in the same way according to their liquidities. The data used in the study contains the closing prices, trading volumes and free floating of the stocks that are included in Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST100) and covers the period from 28.02.2011 to 18.11.2014. Generalized Autoregressive ...

  20. Linkages among U.S. Treasury Bond Yields, Commodity Futures and Stock Market Implied Volatility: New Nonparametric Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vychytilova Jana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore specific cross-asset market correlations over the past fifteen- yearperiod-from January 04, 1999 till April 01, 2015, and within four sub-phases covering both the crisis and the non-crisis periods. On the basis of multivariate statistical methods, we focus on investigating relations between selected well-known market indices- U.S. treasury bond yields- the 30-year treasury yield index (TYX and the 10-year treasury yield (TNX; commodity futures the TR/J CRB; and implied volatility of S&P 500 index- the VIX. We estimate relative logarithmic returns by using monthly close prices adjusted for dividends and splits and run normality and correlation analyses. This paper indicates that the TR/J CRB can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution, whereas the rest of benchmarks do not come from a normal distribution. This paper, inter alia, points out some evidence of a statistically significant negative relationship between bond yields and the VIX in the past fifteen years and a statistically significant negative linkage between the TR/J CRB and the VIX since 2009. In rather general terms, this paper thereafter supports the a priori idea- financial markets are interconnected. Such knowledge can be beneficial for building and testing accurate financial market models, and particularly for the understanding and recognizing market cycles.

  1. Perbandingan Stock Market Crash 1987 : Dan Stock Market Crash 1997

    OpenAIRE

    Indridewi Atmadjaja, Yovita Vivianty

    1999-01-01

    Stock market crash refers to the condition, which is marked with the large dropping of stock Market price index. Historically, stock market crash has happened three times, namely in 1929, 1987 and 1997. This paper will discuss the causes of 1987's and 1997's stock market Crash and the similarities and the differences between 1987's and 1997's stock market crash. The structure of the paper is as follows. The paper starts with the introduction. The second Section briefly explains the causes of ...

  2. Price Limit and Volatility in Taiwan Stock Exchange: Some Additional Evidence from the Extreme Value Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Aktham I. Maghyereh; Haitham A. Al Zoubi; Haitham Nobanee

    2007-01-01

    We reexamine the effects of price limits on stock volatility of Taiwan Stock Exchange using a new methodology based on the Extreme-Value technique. Consistent with the advocates of price limits, we find that stock market volatility is sharply moderated under more restrictive price limits.

  3. Scaling and volatility of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2013-01-01

    Because the movement of stock prices is not only ubiquitous in financial markets but also crucial for investors, extensive studies have been done to understand the law behind it. In particular, since the financial crisis in 2008, researchers have a more interest in investigating large market volatilities in order to grasp changing market trends. In this work, we analyze the breakouts and breakdowns of both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the US stock market and the Shanghai Composite Index in the Chinese stock market. The breakout usually represents an ongoing upward trend in technical analysis while the breakdown represents an ongoing downward trend. Based on the renormalization method, we introduce two parameters to quantize breakouts and breakdowns, respectively. We discover scaling behavior, characterized by power-law distributions for both the breakouts and breakdowns in the two financial markets with different power-law exponents, which reflect different market volatilities. In detail, the market volatility for breakdowns is usually larger than that for breakouts. Moreover, as an emerging market, the Chinese stock market has larger market volatilities for both the breakouts and breakdowns than the US stock market (a mature market). Further, the short-term volatilities show similar features for both the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. However, the medium-term volatilities in the US stock market are almost symmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns, whereas those in the Chinese stock market appear to be asymmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns. The methodology presented here provides a way to understand scaling and hence volatilities of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics. Our findings not only reveal the features of market volatilities but also make a comparison between mature and emerging financial markets.

  4. Scaling and volatility of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Because the movement of stock prices is not only ubiquitous in financial markets but also crucial for investors, extensive studies have been done to understand the law behind it. In particular, since the financial crisis in 2008, researchers have a more interest in investigating large market volatilities in order to grasp changing market trends. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work, we analyze the breakouts and breakdowns of both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the US stock market and the Shanghai Composite Index in the Chinese stock market. The breakout usually represents an ongoing upward trend in technical analysis while the breakdown represents an ongoing downward trend. Based on the renormalization method, we introduce two parameters to quantize breakouts and breakdowns, respectively. We discover scaling behavior, characterized by power-law distributions for both the breakouts and breakdowns in the two financial markets with different power-law exponents, which reflect different market volatilities. In detail, the market volatility for breakdowns is usually larger than that for breakouts. Moreover, as an emerging market, the Chinese stock market has larger market volatilities for both the breakouts and breakdowns than the US stock market (a mature market. Further, the short-term volatilities show similar features for both the US stock market and the Chinese stock market. However, the medium-term volatilities in the US stock market are almost symmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns, whereas those in the Chinese stock market appear to be asymmetrical for the breakouts and breakdowns. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The methodology presented here provides a way to understand scaling and hence volatilities of breakouts and breakdowns in stock price dynamics. Our findings not only reveal the features of market volatilities but also make a comparison between mature and emerging financial markets.

  5. Stock Market Manipulation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionigi Gerace

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is the first to empirically examine stock market manipulation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The dataset contains 40 cases of market manipulation from 1996 to 2009 that were successfully prosecuted by the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission. Manipulation is found to negatively impact market efficiency measures such as the bid-ask spread and volatility. Markets appear incapable of efficiently responding to the presence of manipulators and are characterised by information asymmetry. Manipulators were successfully able to raise prices and exit the market. This finding contradicts views that trade-based manipulation is entirely unprofitable and self-deterring. The victimisation of information-seeking investors and the market as a whole provides a strong rationale for all jurisdictions, including Australia, to have effective laws that prohibit manipulation and for robust enforcement of those laws to further deter market manipulation.

  6. Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Likidite Ölçülerinin Karşılaştırılması ve Likidite Volatilitesi Hisse Senedi Getirisi Arasındaki İlişki (Comparison of Liquidity Measures and The Relationship Between Volatility of Liquidity and Stock Returns in Turkish Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cüneyt AKAR

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to determine the relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity in Turkish Stock Market. It is also investigated whether various liquidity measures sort the stocks in the same way according to their liquidities. The data used in the study contains the closing prices, trading volumes and free floating of the stocks that are included in Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST100 and covers the period from 28.02.2011 to 18.11.2014. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH and Autoregressive Moving Average models (ARMA are used to perform empirical analysis. According to the results, it can not be determined the clear significant relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity. Results also show that while stock size and Amihud illiquidity criteria sort the stocks in the same way, stock return standard deviation criterion produces different ranking.

  7. CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Burtnyak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

  8. Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

    2013-02-01

    According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

  9. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

    2017-01-01

    The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

  10. Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

    2018-02-01

    Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

  11. The impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malim, M. R.; Halim, F. A.; Murad, A.; Maad, H. A.; Annuar, N. F. M.

    2017-09-01

    The essential of derivatives has been discovered by researchers over recent decade. However, the conclusions made regarding the impact of derivatives on stock market volatility remains debatable. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of derivatives on Malaysian stock market volatility by exploring FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index Futures (BMD FKLI) using FBM KLCI as the underlying asset. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) model was employed to realize the objective. The results have shown that the introduction of futures trading has decreased the volatility of Malaysian stock market. The volatility increased vigorously during the Asian financial crisis compared to the Global financial crisis. However, the role of futures as a risk transfer is agreed as it could improve the market by decreasing the volatility in the spot market.

  12. Investors' performance and trading behavior on the Norwegian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Che, Limei

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation examines investors’ performance and trading behavior on the Norwegian stock market, using a unique and extensive data set of monthly holdings of all the investors. The first paper studies how Norwegian individual investors, financial institutional investors and foreign investors affect stock return volatility and finds surprising and interesting results: domestic individual investors and financial institutional investors dampen stock return volatility, and foreign investors ...

  13. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti AREKAR

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

  14. Distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jiawen; Chen, Langnan; Liu, Hao

    2013-12-01

    We examine the distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity by employing the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model and three-minute frequency data from Chinese stock markets. We find that the BCPE distribution within the GAMLSS framework fits the distributions of stock market liquidity well with the diagnosis test. We also find that the stock market index exhibits a significant impact on the distributions of stock market liquidity. The stock market liquidity usually exhibits a positive skewness, but a normal distribution at a low level of stock market index and a high-peak and fat-tail shape at a high level of stock market index.

  15. Stock market volatiltity around national elections

    OpenAIRE

    Bialkowski, Jedrzej; Gottschalk, Katrin; Wisniewski, Tomasz

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the country-specific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a coaliti...

  16. Testing for long-range dependence in world stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we show a novel approach to rank stock market indices in terms of weak form efficiency using state of the art methodology in statistical physics. We employ the R/S and V/S methodologies to test for long-range dependence in equity returns and volatility. Empirical results suggests that although emerging markets possess stronger long-range dependence in equity returns than developed economies, this is not true for volatility. In the case of volatility, Hurst exponents...

  17. Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Xie, Linyin

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

  18. ---Stock Market Devpt in Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jetu_E_Ch

    The term stock can be defined as “the capital or principal fund raised by a corporation .... 20 Tiruneh Legesse (2012), “Establishing Financial Markets in Ethiopia: the .... improve accounting and auditing standards, provide effective tools for.

  19. Extreme negative coexceedances in South Eastern European stock markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tevdovski, Dragan

    The aim of this paper is to analyze the financial integration of the South Eastern Europe (SEE) stock markets. We use a multinomial logistic regression to analyze how persistence, asset class and volatility effects are related with negative coexceedances in SEE markets. We find evidence in favor...... of the continuation hypothesis in SEE stock markets. However, the factors associated with the coexceedances differ between the EU member countries from SEE and EU accession countries from SEE stock markets.The EU member countries are more dependent from the signals from major EU economies, while the accession...

  20. On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine existence of fractality and chaos in returns and volatilities of family business companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco, and also in returns and volatility of the CSE market index. Detrended fluctuation analysis based Hurst exponent and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to quantify fractality in returns and volatility time series respectively. Besides, the largest Lyapunov exponent is employed to quantify chaos in both time series. The empirical results from sixteen family business companies follow. For return series, fractality analysis show that most of family business returns listed on CSE exhibit anti-persistent dynamics, whilst market returns have persistent dynamics. Besides, chaos tests show that business family stock returns are not chaotic while market returns exhibit evidence of chaotic behaviour. For volatility series, fractality analysis shows that most of family business stocks and market index exhibit long memory in volatility. Furthermore, results from chaos tests show that volatility of family business returns is not chaotic, whilst volatility of market index is chaotic. These results may help understanding irregularities patterns in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility, and how they are different from market dynamics.

  1. On the Design of Artificial Stock Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); A. de Bruin (Arie); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractArtificial stock markets are designed with the aim to study and understand market dynamics by representing (part of) real stock markets. Since there is a large variety of real stock markets with several partially observable elements and hidden processes, artificial markets differ

  2. Has microblogging changed stock market behavior? Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xi; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

    2016-06-01

    This paper examines the stock market behavior for a long-lived subset of firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (CSI 300 Index) both before and after the establishment of firms' Microblogging in Sina Weibo. The empirical results show a significant increase in the relative trading volume as well as the decreases in the daily expected stock return and firm-level volatility in the post-Sina Weibo period. These findings suggest that Sina Weibo as an alternative information interaction channel has changed the information environment for individual stock, enhanced the speed of information diffusion and therefore changed the overall stock market behavior.

  3. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, B.Y.; Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....

  4. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  5. Outlook '98 - Stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vankka, D.

    1998-01-01

    In view of the recent drop of some 20 per cent in energy stock prices, and the decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, forecasting oilpatch financing in 1998 is a risky undertaking. Based on a variety of relevant factors, it is expected that there will be a slowdown in oil and gas financing deals in the short term. On the other hand, longer term outlook is bullish, based on the huge capital requirements over the next few years for conventional projects, heavy oil, oilsands and pipelines projects. Corporate mergers and acquisitions will continue at about the same rate as in 1997, as companies attempt to achieve ''economies of scale'' and growth in the most economically sensible manner. Adding production and reserves through corporate transactions at the current lower stock prices will be a powerful incentive. Creative deal structuring will become more prevalent. Corporate reorganizations into separate companies in search of value maximization will increase

  6. Understanding Financial Market Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. Loosely speaking, volatility is defined as the average magnitude of fluctuations observed in some phenomenon over

  7. Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula-multifractal volatility approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wang; Wei, Yu; Lang, Qiaoqi; Lin, Yu; Liu, Maojuan

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach based on the multifractal volatility method (MFV) to study the contagion effect between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. From recent studies, which reveal that multifractal characteristics exist in both developed and emerging financial markets, according to the econophysics literature we could draw conclusions as follows: Firstly, we estimate volatility using the multifractal volatility method, and find out that the MFV method performs best among other volatility models, such as GARCH-type and realized volatility models. Secondly, we analyze the tail dependence structure between the U.S. and Chinese stock market. The estimated static copula results for the entire period show that the SJC copula performs best, indicating asymmetric characteristics of the tail dependence structure. The estimated dynamic copula results show that the time-varying t copula achieves the best performance, which means the symmetry dynamic t copula is also a good choice, for it is easy to estimate and is able to depict both the upper and lower tail dependence structure. Finally, with the results of the previous two steps, we analyze the contagion effect between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets during the subprime mortgage crisis. The empirical results show that the subprime mortgage crisis started in the U.S. and that its stock market has had an obvious contagion effect on the Chinese stock market. Our empirical results should/might be useful for investors allocating their portfolios.

  8. STOCK Market Differences in Correlation-Based Weighted Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, Janghyuk; Lee, Junghoon; Chang, Woojin

    We examined the sector dynamics of Korean stock market in relation to the market volatility. The daily price data of 360 stocks for 5019 trading days (from January, 1990 to August, 2008) in Korean stock market are used. We performed the weighted network analysis and employed four measures: the average, the variance, the intensity, and the coherence of network weights (absolute values of stock return correlations) to investigate the network structure of Korean stock market. We performed regression analysis using the four measures in the seven major industry sectors and the market (seven sectors combined). We found that the average, the intensity, and the coherence of sector (subnetwork) weights increase as market becomes volatile. Except for the "Financials" sector, the variance of sector weights also grows as market volatility increases. Based on the four measures, we can categorize "Financials," "Information Technology" and "Industrials" sectors into one group, and "Materials" and "Consumer Discretionary" sectors into another group. We investigated the distributions of intrasector and intersector weights for each sector and found the differences in "Financials" sector are most distinct.

  9. Stock-market efficiency in thin-trading markets : the case of the Vietnamese stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Truong Dong Loc, [No Value; Lanjouw, Ger; Lensink, Robert

    2010-01-01

    This article reviews developments in the Stock Trading Centre (STC) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, the main stock market in the country, since its start in 2000. It presents information about developments in the number of stocks traded, trading activity and stock-price developments. This article

  10. Stock Market Efficiency in Thin Trading Markets: The Case of the Vietnamese Stock Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dong Loc, T.; Lanjouw, G.; Lensink, B.W.

    2010-01-01

    This article reviews developments in the Stock Trading Centre (STC) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, the main stock market in the country, since its start in 2000. It presents information about developments in the number of stocks traded, trading activity and stock-price developments. This article

  11. Elements of stock market analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suciu, T.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper represents a starting point in the presentation of the two types of stock/market analysis: the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis. The fundamental analysis consist in the assessment of the financial and economic status of the company together with the context and macroeconomic environment where it activates. The technical analysis deals with the demand and supply of securities and the evolution of their trend on the market, using a range of graphics and charts to illustrate the market tendencies for the quick identification of the best moments to buy or sell.

  12. Stock market dynamics created by interacting agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Riad Remita

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a stock market model, consisting in a large number of agents, going eventually to infinity, and evaluate the stock price under the influence of opinions of different agents. Next we study the behavior of prices when the market is very nervous; there appear discontinuities (phase transitions which can be interpreted as stock market crashes.

  13. Gold-Stock Market Relationship: Emerging Markets versus Developed Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Seifoddini

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available We perform a comparative study on the gold-stock market relationship in U.S. stock market as a developed market and in Iran stock market as an emerging market. By considering appropriate variables for emerging markets and by providing a more proper methodology, we improve earlier studies. According to our findings, the relationship between stock market returns and gold price returns does not follow any specific regimes and that this relationship changes in short and long term returns. It is necessary to mention that in the present research, we did not consider this relationship in major structural changes in the economies and instead considered usual economic circumstances that investors are regularly faced with in their investment decisions.

  14. Forecasting Volatility of Dhaka Stock Exchange: Linear Vs Non-linear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masudul Islam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Prior information about a financial market is very essential for investor to invest money on parches share from the stock market which can strengthen the economy. The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock indexes future volatility. The forecasting models that employed from simple to relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock indexes volatility, the moving average model ranks first using root mean square error, mean absolute percent error, Theil-U and Linex loss function  criteria. We also examine five nonlinear models. These models are ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH and restricted GARCH models. We find that nonlinear models failed to dominate linear models utilizing different error measurement criteria and moving average model appears to be the best. Then we forecast the next two months future stock index price volatility by the best (moving average model.

  15. Transmission of Shock across International Stock Markets: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalini TALWAR

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The risk of spillover of volatility among international stock markets has increased manifold and it needs to be diagnosed comprehensively. In this paper, the authors have used 11 stock indices to identify influential markets and detect the direction of transmission of shock across markets in different time zones using Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test and vector autoregression. The findings of VAR show that the forecast error at the 10-day horizon explained by their own innovation is highest for the Australian and Chinese markets followed by Japan, India, Brazil and Russia.Markets of Germany, UK, USA and Canada are influenced by the Australian market. In fact, the Australian market is seen to be the most influential market among the markets under the study. The impact of Chinese and Canadian markets is found to be the least. These results can be useful for optimal option valuation, effective portfolio allocation and performance benchmarking

  16. Volatility Transmission Between Dow Jones Stock Index And Emerging Islamic Stock Index: Case Of Subprime Financial Crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Saadaoui

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In the course of the recent global crisis, the stock shocks are distributed and transmitted from their homes in the developed stock market to emerging stock markets. By supporting the development of emerging stock markets, this study aims to see the transmission of volatility between the Dow Jones stock index and the Dow Jones emerging Islamic stock indiex. In this study we have divided the period into three, periods, before, during and after this crisis to demonstrate the resilience of the Islamic market index in response to the global financial crisis. Another aim of this study is to provide a new guide line for investors in emerging stock market before making investment decisions. The data are daily, going from 02/01/2005 until 31/12/2012. To measure the transmission we used bivariate BEKK-GARCH and DCC-GARCH model. The result shows that there is a transmission mainly during the crisis period which means that the crisis affects all the financial assets whether Islamic or not. The same result also shows the preference to invest in both Islamic and classical stock indexes since they are less risky.

  17. The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arindam MANDAL

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is found. Also strong co-movements in returns and volatility are observed between the SENSEX and other major stock indexes during the post-recession period. Our results establish the dominance of global factors in influencing Indian stock market behavior during periods of economic turmoil.

  18. The Speculative Nature of Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan-Gabriel FILIPESCU

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the speculative nature of the stock market in Romania, emphasizing the basic rules and risks associated with stock transactions. On the one hand, the speculative nature may be considered as a mandatory feature of the stock market, for the purposes of supporting a fair and efficient functioning stock system. On the other hand, the term "speculative" can be also interpreted in a negative direction, i.e. in combination with market manipulation or market abuse. Related to this latter interpretation, the study refers to European legislation on market abuse, accepted market practices and those that constitute market manipulation.

  19. Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Chok

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

  20. The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Arindam MANDAL; Prasun BHATTACHARJEE

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is...

  1. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  2. Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 3 (2015), s. 309-329 ISSN 0195-6574 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA14-24129S Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Asymmetry * Petroleum markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.662, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0438407.pdf

  3. Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    John T. Barkoulas; Christopher F. Baum; Nickolaos Travlos

    1996-01-01

    We test for stochastic long memory in the Greek stock market, an emerging capital market. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. Contrary to findings for major capital markets, significant and robust evidence of positive long-term persistence is found in the Greek stock market. As compared to benchmark linear models, the estimated fractional models provide improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Greek stock returns series over long...

  4. Looking Back on the Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ Looking back at the ups and downs of China's stock market in 2007,it is clear that it has developed far beyond people's expectation. While the stock index constantly reaches new highs and the size of the market becomes larger and larger, the Chinese financial market has also reintegrated. A multi-level revolution occurred in 2007, involving changes in stock structure, the variety of core composition, chip cost of the capital market, investor makeup, as well as trade rules and operational methods.

  5. Dynamic asset trees in the US stock market: Structure variation and market phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Yao, Shuang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yuan, Ying

    2017-01-01

    In this work, employing a moving window to scan through every stock price time series over a period from 2 January 1986 to 20 October 2015, we use cross-correlations to measure the interdependence between stock prices, and we construct a corresponding minimal spanning tree for 170 U.S. stocks in every given window. We show how the asset tree evolves over time and describe the dynamics of its normalized length, centrality measures, vertex degree and vertex strength distributions, and single- and multiple-step edge survival ratios. We find that the normalized tree length shows a tendency to decrease over the 30 years. The power-law of vertex degree or vertex strength distribution does not hold for all trees. The survival ratio analysis reveals an increased stability of the dependence structure of the stock market as time elapses. We then examine the relationship between tree structure variation and market phenomena, such as average, volatility and tail risk of stock (market) return. Our main observation is that the normalized tree length has a positive relationship with the level of stock market average return, and it responds negatively to the market return volatility and tail risk. Furthermore, the majority of stocks have their vertex degrees significantly positively correlated to their average return, and significantly negatively correlated to their return volatility and tail risk.

  6. Volatility in financial markets: The impact of the global financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Valls Ruiz, Natàlia

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on volatility in financial markets, with a special concern for: (i) volatility transmission between different financial markets and asset categories and, (ii) the effect of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlation of stock markets. These issues are analysed taking into account the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility and incorporating the period of financial turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis. The study focuses the attention on...

  7. Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen

    2008-02-01

    This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

  8. Market Structure and Stock Splits

    OpenAIRE

    David Michayluk; Paul Kofman

    2001-01-01

    Enhanced liquidity is one possible motivation for stock splits but empirical research frequently documents declines in liquidity following stock splits. Despite almost thirty years of inquiry, little is known about all the changes in a stock's trading activity following a stock split. We examine how liquidity measures change around more than 2,500 stock splits and find a pervasive decline in most measures. Large stock splits exhibit a more severe liquidity decline than small stock splits, esp...

  9. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  10. Auditor Tenure and Stock Price Volatility: TheModerating Role of Auditor Industry Specialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Jorjani

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose The present study aims to investigate the relationship between auditor tenure and stock return volatility and to study the moderating effect of auditor’s industry specialization on this relationship in the firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 95 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2011 to 2015 was selected and two hypotheses were formulated and analyzed using multivariate regression and econometric models. Findings The results of the study indicate that with the increase of auditor tenure, the volatility of stock returns is reduced. However, the results showed that the use of auditors specializing in the client's industry does not affect the relationship between the length of auditor tenure and the volatility of stock returns. Originality/value The findings of current study not only extend the extant theoretical literature concerning the stock price volatility in developing countries including emerging capital market of Iran, but also help investors, capital market and audit profession regulators to make informed decisions.

  11. Is political risk still an issue for Turkish stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samet Günay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyze the effects of internal political risk on the Turkish stock market in the period of 2001–2014. Empirical analyses are conducted through various methods to obtain breaks and regimes in the return volatilities of the BIST100 index. According to the results, while the number of breaks has increased in recent years, the risk level of recent periods is significantly lower than the early regimes, and the risk level trend for all regimes show a negative slope. In conclusion, the Turkish stock market responds to political events, but according to our results, not as significantly as in the past.

  12. Students Invest in the Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, George O.

    1977-01-01

    How one teacher motivated students to learn about the stock market by allowing them to actually invest money. Class discussion covered inexpensive ways to buy stock, choosing securities, and buying and selling stock. Suggestions are offered for adapting this project for use at the secondary level. (TA)

  13. Are Stock and Corporate Bond Markets Integrated?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zundert, J.; Driessen, Joost

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the cross-sectional integration of stock and corporate bond markets by comparing a firm’s expected stock return, as implied by corporate bond spreads, to its realized stock return. We compute expected corporate bond returns by correcting credit spreads for expected losses due to

  14. Manufacturing Capital Lingers in the Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴程涛; 段铸; 张景宇; 张曙光

    2008-01-01

    Pressured by a slowdown in exports, cost increases and dwindling returns to manufacturing investments, China’s manufacturing capital has begun to shift to the real-estate and stock markets. As a matter of fact, the stock market had already felt a shock a couple of years ago when top domestic manufacturers like Midea, Gree, TCL and LMZ started to invest their idle capital in the real-estate and stock markets. Investments of manufacturing capital in both the real estate and stock markets have increased fluid capital and pushed up the value of both markets. Booms in both markets have in turn guaranteed investment returns of manufacturing capital, which further increased the stock market valuations of manufacturing capital. Such a cycle has created interest chains between listed manufacturers, the stock market and the real-estate market. Along with the ups and downs of the stock and real-estate markets, manufacturing capital now faces a dilemma: to escape or to persist? Where should it escape? When can the markets be profitable again? Just like the classic Shakespearean question: to be or not to be, that is the question.

  15. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics. PMID:29190652

  16. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blau, Benjamin M; Whitby, Ryan J

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics.

  17. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M Blau

    Full Text Available One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility, which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics.

  18. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  19. The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Roshni; P, Srinivasan

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between stock market returns and volatility in the Indian stock markets using AR(1)-EGARCH(p, q)-in-Mean model. The study considers daily closing prices of two major indexes of Indian stock exchanges, viz., S&P CNX NIFTY and the BSE-SENSEX of National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), respectively for the period from July 1, 1997 to December 31, 2013. The empirical results show positive but insignificant relationship between stock r...

  20. Long - Memory Persistence in African Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Emerging stock markets are said to become efficient with time. This study seeks to investigate this assertion by analyzing long - memory persistence in 8 African stock markets covering the period from 28 August 2000 to 28 August 2015. The Hurst exponent is used as our efficiency measure which is evaluated by the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA. Our findings show strong evidence of long - memory persistence in the markets studied therefore violating the weak - form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH.

  1. Does Stock Market Performance Influence Retirement Intentions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goda, Gopi Shah; Shoven, John B.; Slavov, Sita Nataraj

    2012-01-01

    Media reports predicted that the stock market decline in October 2008 would cause changes in retirement intentions, due to declines in retirement assets. We use panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the relationship between stock market performance and retirement intentions during 1998-2008, a period that includes the…

  2. Jump Detection in the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben

    2002-01-01

    It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...

  3. THE VOLATILITY OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET – A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mester Ioana Teodora

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, the financial markets have been subject to significant fluctuations of their financial actives. These spectacular movements have revived the interest, in the academic circles and policy makers and regulation and control authorities as well, for the financial market volatility. The analysis of these phenomena is justified by the fact that the stock exchange chocks have significant effects on the financial stability and they can lead to serious consequences in the real economy.

  4. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  5. Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, João A.; Caiado, Jorge

    2011-04-01

    This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjusted market capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stock markets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stock markets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures.

  6. A causality between fund performance and stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Yong; Kwon, Okyu; Oh, Gabjin

    2016-02-01

    We investigate whether the characteristic fund performance indicators (FPI), such as the fund return, the Net asset value (NAV) and the cash flow, are correlated with the asset price movement using information flows estimated by the Granger causality test. First, we find that the information flow of FPI is most sensitive to extreme events of the Korean stock market, which include negative events such as the sub-prime crisis and the impact of QE (quantitative easing) by the US subprime and Europe financial crisis as well as the positive events of the golden period of Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), except for the fund cash flow. Second, both the fund return and the NAV exhibit significant correlations with the KOSPI, whereas the cash flow is not correlated with the stock market. This result suggests that the information resulting from the ability of the fund manager should influence stock market. Finally, during market crisis period, information flows between FPI and the Korean stock market are significantly positively correlated with the market volatility.

  7. Forward-looking disclosure and corporate reputation as mechanisms to reduce stock return volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Bravo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether forward-looking disclosures and corporate reputation lead to a reduction in stock return volatility. This study measures financial forward-looking information, by conducting a content analysis of annual reports for a sample of US companies. Since every annual report was manually examined and coded, the study is therefore restricted to the companies listed in Standard and Poor's 100. Results show that financial forward-looking information has significant effects on capital markets. This study contributes to the current literature on voluntary disclosure, by examining the link between the disclosure of financial forward-looking information and stock return volatility. Since stock volatility is linked to information asymmetries and to a higher risk of a company, this analysis implies certain practical implications for both managers and regulators regarding the importance of specific disclosure strategy in capital markets. Moreover, results indicate that forward-looking information disclosed by companies of a higher reputation has a greater effect on stock return volatility. This is the first study that demonstrates that corporate reputation moderates the effects of forward-looking information in capital markets. In addition to the level of disclosed information, the interpretation and the effectiveness of forward-looking information depends on the reputation of a company.

  8. UNDERGROUND ECONOMY, GDP AND STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caus Vasile Aurel

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Economic growth is affected by the size and dynamics of underground economy. Determining this size is a subject of research for many authors. In this paper we present the relationship between underground economy dynamics and the dynamics of stock markets. The observations are based on regression used by Tanzi (1983 and the relationship between GDP and stock market presented in Tudor (2008. The conclusion of this paper is that the dynamics of underground economy is influenced by dynamic of financial markets. Thus, using specific stock market mathematical tools analysis, one can analyze the dynamic of underground economy

  9. A complex network for studying the transmission mechanisms in stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Wen; Guan, Lijing; Shen, Jiangjian; Song, Linqiu; Cui, Lingxiao

    2017-10-01

    This paper introduces a new complex network to describe the volatility transmission mechanisms in stock market. The network can not only endogenize stock market's volatility but also figure out the direction of volatility spillover. In this model, we first use BEKK-GARCH to estimate the volatility spillover effects among Chinese 18 industry sectors. Then, based on the ARCH coefficients and GARCH coefficients, the directional shock networks and variance networks in different stages are constructed separately. We find that the spillover effects and network structures changes in different stages. The results of the topological stability test demonstrate that the connectivity of networks becomes more fragile to selective attacks than stochastic attacks.

  10. Stock return, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in steel & iron subsector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Chirila

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results obtained following the testing of five hypotheses regarding conditional return and volatility of the most listed European stocks in the steel & iron subsector. The following elements of the stocks are analysed: time variation of volatility, seasonality of return and volatility, relationship between return and volatility and volatility asymmetry. The results obtained confirm for all the analyzed stocks the existence of volatility variation in time, the lack of correlation between return and volatility, the existence of asymmetry phenomenon of volatility and the presence in some stocks of the seasonality effect both for return and volatility.

  11. Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav S.; Balatsky, Alexander V.

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994–2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa. PMID:25162697

  12. Cross-correlation asymmetries and causal relationships between stock and market risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.

  13. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  14. Cost Linkages Transmit Volatility Across Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen; Schaur, Georg

    We present and test a model relating a firm's idiosyncratic cost, its exporting status, and the volatilities of its domestic and export sales. In prior models of trade, supply costs for domestic and exports were linear and thus additively separable. We introduce a nonlinear cost function in order...... to link the domestic and export supply costs. This theoretical contribution has two new implications for the exporting firm. First, the demand volatility in the foreign market now directly affects the firm's domestic sales volatility. Second, firms hedge domestic demand volatility with exports. The model...... has several testable predictions. First, larger firms have lower total and domestic sales volatilities. Second, foreign market volatility increases domestic sales volatilities for exporters. Third, exporters allocate output across both markets in order to reduce total sales volatility. We find...

  15. Stock Market Liquidity: Comparative Analysis of Croatian and Regional Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Benić

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available On the Croatian stock market liquidity has never been in the focus of academic research thus we find it necessary to observe liquidity at the aggregate level. This paper observes multi-dimensional liquidity through the impact of turnover on price change together with several one-dimensional measures. In our empirical research we applythe illiquidity measureto seven different stock markets. We focus on the Croatian stock market as compared to other markets in the Central and Eastern Europe and German market. The results of the research indicate a substantial level of illiquidity in the Croatian and other developing markets.

  16. Global stock market in 1990-s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshenskyi S.Z.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The 1990s became a period of long-term recovery, the main driving force of which was the high-tech companies of the so-called «new economy», mainly associated with information technology and Internet at the global stock market. Such innovations have led to unrealistic expectations of the profitability of new companies from the sale of goods and services on the Internet. This became a prerequisite for a speculative boom in equity markets in developed financial systems. The boom intensified the mass privatization of state-owned enterprises in UK, Germany, France and some other countries. The capitalization of the global stock market increased more than ten times although the world GDP grew only 2.5 times during two decades, from 1980 to 2000. Though the stock market is the source of capital only in the countries with the Anglo-American model of financial markets (for countries of continental Europe and Japan such sources are bank loans, stock markets increased in all countries with developed financial systems. The systematic analysis of such key indicators as market capitalization and liquidity is required for an objective assessment of such rise in stock markets. But statistical information at stock markets is often not systematized and fragmentary. Therefore, the author (based on the official statistics of such international financial organizations as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Federation of Exchanges has calculated and systematically analyzed capitalization and liquidity as the main indicators of the stock market for the largest countries with developed financial systems (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan. The paper displays the differences in the mechanisms of attraction of capital determined by the different models of financial markets (decentralized Anglo-American and centralized European as well as the features of the composition of the main investors in the world stock markets.

  17. The price of fixed income market volatility

    CERN Document Server

    Mele, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...

  18. The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slah Bahloul

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of conventional stock market return and volatility and various macroeconomic variables (including inflation rate, short-term interest rate, the slope of the yield curve and money supply on Islamic stock markets returns for twenty developed and emerging markets using Markov switching regression models. The empirical results for the period 2002–2014 show that both developed and emerging Islamic stock indices are influenced by conventional stock indices returns and money supply for both the low and high volatility regimes. However, the other macroeconomic variables fail to explain the dynamics of Islamic stock indices especially in the high volatility regime. Similar conclusions are obtained by using the MS-VAR model.

  19. TIME-VARYING BETA AND VOLATILITY IN THE KUALA LUMPUR STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansor Ibrahim

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the relationship between beta risk and aggregate market volatility for 12sized-based portfolios for the case of Malaysia using daily data from January 1988 to December 2000. The analysis is conducted for the entire sample as well as various sub-samples corresponding to (ithe upward trend in the market from January 1988-December 1992; (ii the huge influx of portfolio investments from January 1993-June 1997, and (Hi the Asian crisis and its aftermath from July 1997-December 2000. The results generally suggest instability in beta risk due to its significant response to aggregate market volatility. Additionally, we also note that the direction of relationship between beta risk and market volatility seems to depend on stock market conditions or sub-samples used. Namely, beta risk seems to decrease with increasing market volatility for the whole sample as well as the first and the third sub-samples. However, for the second sub-sample, their relationship turns to be positive. Lastly, the author have evidence for the Malaysian case that size does not play significant role in the way beta risk responds to aggregate market volatility. These results have important implications for investment decisions as well as for event analyses employing the market model to generate abnormal returns.

  20. Asymptotic Behavior of the Stock Price Distribution Density and Implied Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulisashvili, Archil; Stein, Elias M.

    2010-01-01

    We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of the squared volatility process and the density of the stock price process in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the implied volatility in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model are obtained.

  1. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

  2. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...

  3. A Tale of Two Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Piercey, Victor I.; Greene-Hunley, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    This article describes two different projects using the stock market as a context for learning. For both projects, students "bought" shares in individual companies, tracked stock prices for a period of time, and then "sold" their shares at a gain or loss. The projects are adaptable for students in late elementary school through…

  4. Recent market behavior of utility stocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studness, C.M.

    1990-01-01

    This article reviews the recent market behavior of utility stocks as compared to the Standard and Poor's 500 and the long-term government bond yield. Utility stock's performance continues to be affected by unfavorable regulation,and it appears that it will continue to be a factor for some time to come. A continually shrinking excess capacity continues to be a concern

  5. Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen

    2018-03-01

    This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

  6. How to obtain high returns with lower volatility in emerging markets?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipun Agarwal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Emerging markets equity indexes are usually seen as high return with a high degree of volatility associated with them. However, this should not be the case, if you choose high-quality firms that have increasing returns and lower volatility. The intent of this paper is to introduce the risk weighted alpha (RWA indexation method that helps identify stocks that have stable increasing returns with lower volatility. In order to review this method in the context of emerging markets scenario, this paper takes the example of the Sensex index listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE that comprises India’s top 30 stocks by market capitalisation. Results show that some stocks like Hindustan Lever do show increasing returns and lower volatility. The RWA Sensex index outperforms the BSE Sensex index, while still maintaining a beta that is the same as that in the BSE Sensex index.

  7. Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Taro

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.

  8. Dynamic Stock Market Participation of Households

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market articipation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed articipation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....

  9. Privatization, political risk and stock market development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

  10. Analysing News for Stock Market Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalingam, V. V.; Pandian, A.; Dwivedi, shivam; Bhatt, Jigar P.

    2018-04-01

    Stock market means the aggregation of all sellers and buyers of stocks representing their ownership claims on the business. To be completely absolute about the investment on these stocks, proper knowledge about them as well as their pricing, for both present and future is very essential. Large amount of data is collected and parsed to obtain this essential information regarding the fluctuations in the stock market. This data can be any news or public opinions in general. Recently, many methods have been used, especially big unstructured data methods to predict the stock market values. We introduce another method of focusing on deriving the best statistical learning model for predicting the future values. The data set used is very large unstructured data collected from an online social platform, commonly known as Quindl. The data from this platform is then linked to a csv fie and cleaned to obtain the essential information for stock market prediction. The method consists of carrying out the NLP (Natural Language Processing) of the data and then making it easier for the system to understand, finds and identifies the correlation in between this data and the stock market fluctuations. The model is implemented using Python Programming Language throughout the entire project to obtain flexibility and convenience of the system.

  11. Stock Markets Indices in Artificial Insymmetrization Patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makowiec, D.

    2002-01-01

    The daily data of indices of Warsaw Stock Exchange - WIG, and New York Stock Exchange - NASDAQ, NYSE and S and P 500 for the last two years are being studied. Properties of fluctuations of daily returns found from scaling analysis of tails are confronted with patterns obtained by the artificial insymmetrization method to specify difference between the world-wide American market and local and rather marginal Polish market. (author)

  12. Econometric Studies of Stock Market Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    This thesis consists of three sefcontained essays, all centering around the topic of stock market behaviour. The papers focus on the empirical performance of a number of asset pricing models, all attempting to quantify and price asset risk. We look at how well these models actually do in describing...... the historic behaviour of the stock market, allowing us to get further insight into what drives the markes....

  13. Mutual Fund Competition and Stock Market Liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Massa, Massimo

    2004-01-01

    We study how competition in the mutual fund industry affects stock market liquidity. We argue that mutual fund families operate as multi-product firms, jointly choosing fees, performance and number of funds and sharing common research facilities. The family-based organization generates economies of scale in information that induce a trade off between performance and number of funds. The presence of more and relatively less-informed funds impacts the market, increasing stock liquidity. This in...

  14. Is there stock market efficiency in Malaysia?

    OpenAIRE

    Sui Suyin, Crystal

    2007-01-01

    This study is tests the Malaysian stock exchange, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) for any evidences of efficiency. The approach to carrying out the tests is discussed in careful detail whilst still considering the other aspects of the study. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is explained in detailed as well a discussion on the vast debate concerning the EMH, which includes literature that support and do not support the concept of an efficient market. This debate is situated vitally aroun...

  15. The Impact of Economic Agents Perceptions on Stock Price Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Bukovina

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies perceptions of economic subjects and its impact on stock prices. Perceptions are represented by stock market indexes and Facebook activity. The contribution of this paper is twofold. In the first place, this paper analyzes the unique data of Facebook activity and proposes the methodology for employment of social networks as a proxy variable which represents the perceptions of information in society related to the specific company. The second contribution is the proposal of potential link between social network principles and theories of behavioral economics. Overall, the author finds the negative impact of Facebook activity on stock prices and the positive impact of stock market indices. The author points the implications of findings to protection of company reputation and to investment strategy based on the existence of undervalued stocks.

  16. The Stock Market Game: A Simulation of Stock Market Trading. Grades 5-8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draze, Dianne

    This guide to a unit on a simulation game about the stock market contains an instructional text and two separate simulations. Through directed lessons and reproducible worksheets, the unit teaches students about business ownership, stock exchanges, benchmarks, commissions, why prices change, the logistics of buying and selling stocks, and how to…

  17. Investor attention and FX market volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Goddard, John; Kita, Arben; Wang, Qingwei

    2015-01-01

    We study the relationship between investors’ active attention, measured by a Google search volume index (SVI), and the dynamics of currency prices. Investor attention is correlated with the trading activities of large FX market participants. Investor attention comoves with comtemporaneous FX market volatility and predicts subsequent FX market volatility, after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. In addition, investor attention is related to the currency risk premium. Our results sugge...

  18. Bias correction in the realized stochastic volatility model for daily volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2018-06-01

    The realized stochastic volatility model has been introduced to estimate more accurate volatility by using both daily returns and realized volatility. The main advantage of the model is that no special bias-correction factor for the realized volatility is required a priori. Instead, the model introduces a bias-correction parameter responsible for the bias hidden in realized volatility. We empirically investigate the bias-correction parameter for realized volatilities calculated at various sampling frequencies for six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and then show that the dynamic behavior of the bias-correction parameter as a function of sampling frequency is qualitatively similar to that of the Hansen-Lunde bias-correction factor although their values are substantially different. Under the stochastic diffusion assumption of the return dynamics, we investigate the accuracy of estimated volatilities by examining the standardized returns. We find that while the moments of the standardized returns from low-frequency realized volatilities are consistent with the expectation from the Gaussian variables, the deviation from the expectation becomes considerably large at high frequencies. This indicates that the realized stochastic volatility model itself cannot completely remove bias at high frequencies.

  19. The Stock Market: Risk vs. Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffitts, Dawn

    2002-01-01

    This economics education publication focuses on the U.S. stock market and the risk and uncertainty that an individual faces when investing in the market. The material explains that risk and uncertainty relate to the same underlying concept randomness. It defines and discusses both concepts and notes that although risk is quantifiable, uncertainty…

  20. TRADING RULES ON A SMALL STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefán B. Gunnlaugsson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the results of an extensive study of the weak form efficiency of the Iceland stock market are presented. This study almost covers the market’s entire history, with the research starting at the beginning of 1993 and ending in July 2017. Four trading rules based on 70-day moving averages were constructed and compared with the passive investment strategy of buying the market index. All of these trading rules provided significantly better returns than the passive strategy, even when considering trading costs. This result indicates that the Icelandic stock market did not show weak form efficiency, and past returns predicted future returns during the period examined.

  1. Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emenike O. Kalu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

  2. Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte

    -return trade-off is positive and during flight-to-safety episodes it is negative. The effects of flight-to-safety episodes on the risk-return trade-off are qualitatively similar for own country flight-to-safety episodes, for flight from own country stock market to the US bond market, and for US flight......This paper investigates flight-to-safety from stocks to bonds in seven European markets. We use quantile regressions to identify flight-to-safety episodes. The simple risk-return trade-off on the stock markets is negative which is caused by flight-to-safety episodes: During normal periods, the risk...

  3. Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

  4. SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF THE SUB-PRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS TO THE ASIAN STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esta Lestari

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThis paper aims to analyze the effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on several Asian stock markets. An Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH model is employed to provide an empirical evidence of the direct spillover. The indirect effect is measured through the spillover effects from the increased volatility in the U.S. stock markets to the Asian stock markets. The results showed that the market integration occurs within Asian stock markets. Meanwhile the asymmetric effects are evident for all the Asian countries stock markets, indicating that financial markets in Asia are suffered more from negative news (shocks lead to more volatilities compared to positive news. Keywords: Stock market, sub-prime mortgage crisis, volatility, spillover effectJEL classification numbers: C22, F36, G15AbstrakPaper ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh krisis sub-prime mortgage pada beberapa pasar saham Asia. Model Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH digunakan untuk mendapatkan bukti empiris dari kenaikan volatilitas dalam pasar saham Amerika pada pasar-pasar saham Asia. Hasil analisis memperlihatkan bahwa integrasi pasar terjadi di dalam pasar saham Asia. Sementara itu, pengaruh asimetris terbukti terjadi di pasar-pasar saham Asia, mengindikasikan bahwa pasar-pasar keuangan di Asia menderita lebih parah sebagai akibat dari kejutan negatif dibandingkan dengan dampak dari kejutan positif.Kata kunci: Pasar saham, krisis sub-prime mortgage, volatilitas, pengaruh spillover JEL classification numbers: C22, F36, G15

  5. The Australian stock market development: Prospects and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Sheilla Nyasha; Nicholas M. Odhiambo

    2013-01-01

    This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these r...

  6. By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, John; Cochrane, John H.

    1999-01-01

    We present a consumption-based model that explains the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. Our model has an i.i.d. consumption growth driving process, and adds a slow-moving external habit to the standard power utility function. The latter feature produces cyclical variation in risk aversion, and hence in the prices of risky assets. Our model also predicts many of the diff...

  7. The performance of Libyan stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atiya Aljbiri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to answer the following question:. To what extent Libyan stock market developed to contribute to economic growth in Libya? This can be evaluated by using many financial indicators, these include stock market size, activity and efficiency, as well as the study including the regulatory framework, and information technology (IT set in place by the market authorities. However, descriptive and comparative method was used. The results indicated that, despite the modest progress made in a very short time regarding all indicators which the paper calculated, however, it can be said that Libyan stock market remain largely underdeveloped, small and relatively inefficient. Its market capitalization to GDP is very low and investors have no access to long-term capital. In addition, the market still have very low liquidity and investors still have a limited choice of financial instruments and face liquidity problems. In the end of this paper was its conclusion a set of recommendations that can be used in developing a program that aims to speed the development of Libyan stock market and increase its efficiency.

  8. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  9. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

    2009-01-15

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  10. Stock Market Interdependence: Evidence from Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Michael E. Drew; Leonard Chong

    2002-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between Australia’s stock market and the five largest international markets for the period 1991 through 2001. Preliminary findings, using correlation statistics, indicated potential benefits to international diversification for the Australian investor. Further analysis, conducted in the VAR framework using the Johansen co-integration method, found that the Australian market has short and long run linkages with the United States, while tests with other mark...

  11. Dynamical Analysis of Stock Market Instability by Cross-correlation Matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2016-08-01

    We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, crosscorrelation matrices are calculated with a rolling window of 400 days. To quantify the volatile market stages where the potential risk is high, we apply the principal components analysis and measure the cumulative risk fraction (CRF), which is the system variance associated with the first few principal components. From the CRF, we detected three volatile market stages corresponding to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, and the FRB QE3 reduction observation in the study period. We further apply the random matrix theory for the risk analysis and find that the first eigenvector is more equally de-localized when the market is volatile.

  12. Dynamical Analysis of Stock Market Instability by Cross-correlation Matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    We study stock market instability by using cross-correlations constructed from the return time series of 366 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 5, 1998 to December 30, 2013. To investigate the dynamical evolution of the cross-correlations, crosscorrelation matrices are calculated with a rolling window of 400 days. To quantify the volatile market stages where the potential risk is high, we apply the principal components analysis and measure the cumulative risk fraction (CRF), which is the system variance associated with the first few principal components. From the CRF, we detected three volatile market stages corresponding to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 Tohoku Region Pacific Coast Earthquake, and the FRB QE3 reduction observation in the study period. We further apply the random matrix theory for the risk analysis and find that the first eigenvector is more equally de-localized when the market is volatile. (paper)

  13. Information arrival and volatility: Evidence from the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezzat Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the validation of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH using trading volume and number of trades as contemporaneous proxies for information arrival in 15 sector indices of the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul using the TGARCH model. Findings provide strong evidence for the validity of the MDH for the Saudi market. Volatility persistence decreases when the trading volume and the number of trades are included in the conditional variance equation. The most striking finding is that contemporaneous number of trades is a better proxy for information arrival than trading volume, interacting with volatility in a manner anticipated under the MDH. This can be attributed to the unique characteristic of the Saudi equity market where only domestic investors are allowed to execute trade transactions. Further, the results reveal that the leverage effect was amplified, indicating a more pronounced asymmetric effect of bad news on volatility.

  14. Volatility Informed Trading in the Options Market: Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Pathak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the trading activity in options market based on information about expected future volatility in spot market. We employ Common Implied Volatility as a measure of expected volatility and options volume and changes in Open Interests as measures of options trading activity. We first test for simultaneous information flow in the two markets using multiple regression technique. Next, we test for information based or hedge based use of options using Trivariate Vector-auto Regression framework. We further consider the classes of options moneyness and the market trends in our analysis to examine if the trader’s preference of options changes with change in description of options intrinsic value and market environment. We use daily closing data of S&P CNX Nifty Index options traded on National Stock Exchange, India. We, for the most part, find negative and significant relationship in contemporaneous regression suggesting active trading by arbitrageurs. A feedback relationship is observed in vector auto regression analysis suggesting that options are traded in India for both information based trading and hedging purposes. We also observe the relationship to be varying when market trends and classes of options moneyness are considered. This indicates that traders are not indifferent in their choice of trading venue when market conditions and factors change. The results of this study are helpful for traders in managing the risk and return of their portfolio based on volatility forecast. This study is distinctive as it examines the scarcely researched area of volatility informed trading in an emerging market set up.

  15. Mean reversion in the US stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serletis, Apostolos; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam

    2009-01-01

    This paper revisits the evidence for the weaker form of the efficient market hypothesis, building on recent work by Serletis and Shintani [Serletis A, Shintani M. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2003;17:449-54], Elder and Serletis [Elder J, Serletis A. On fractional integrating dynamics in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2007;34;777-81], Koustas et al. [Koustas Z, Lamarche J.-F, Serletis A. Threshold random walks in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, forthcoming], Hinich and Serletis [Hinich M, Serletis A. Randomly modulated periodicity in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, forthcoming], and Serletis et al. [Serletis A, Uritskaya OY, Uritsky VM. Detrended Fluctuation analysis of the US stock market. Int J Bifurc Chaos, forthcoming]. In doing so, we use daily data, over the period from 5 February 1971 to 1 December 2006 (a total of 9045 observations) on four US stock market indexes - the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the NYSE Composite Index - and a new statistical physics approach - namely the 'detrending moving average (DMA)' technique, recently introduced by Alessio et al. [Alessio E, Carbone A, Castelli G, Frappietro V. Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series. Euro Phys J B 2002;27;197-200.] and further developed by Carbone et al. [Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE. Time dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 2004;344;267-71, Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE. Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys Rev E 2004;69;026105.]. The robustness of the results to the use of alternative testing methodologies is also investigated, by using Lo's [Lo AW. Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 1991;59:1279-313.] modified rescaled range analysis. We conclude that US stock

  16. Mean reversion in the US stock market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1N4 (Canada)], E-mail: Serletis@ucalgary.ca; Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1N4 (Canada)

    2009-05-30

    This paper revisits the evidence for the weaker form of the efficient market hypothesis, building on recent work by Serletis and Shintani [Serletis A, Shintani M. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2003;17:449-54], Elder and Serletis [Elder J, Serletis A. On fractional integrating dynamics in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2007;34;777-81], Koustas et al. [Koustas Z, Lamarche J.-F, Serletis A. Threshold random walks in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, forthcoming], Hinich and Serletis [Hinich M, Serletis A. Randomly modulated periodicity in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, forthcoming], and Serletis et al. [Serletis A, Uritskaya OY, Uritsky VM. Detrended Fluctuation analysis of the US stock market. Int J Bifurc Chaos, forthcoming]. In doing so, we use daily data, over the period from 5 February 1971 to 1 December 2006 (a total of 9045 observations) on four US stock market indexes - the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index, and the NYSE Composite Index - and a new statistical physics approach - namely the 'detrending moving average (DMA)' technique, recently introduced by Alessio et al. [Alessio E, Carbone A, Castelli G, Frappietro V. Second-order moving average and scaling of stochastic time series. Euro Phys J B 2002;27;197-200.] and further developed by Carbone et al. [Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE. Time dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Physica A 2004;344;267-71, Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE. Analysis of clusters formed by the moving average of a long-range correlated time series. Phys Rev E 2004;69;026105.]. The robustness of the results to the use of alternative testing methodologies is also investigated, by using Lo's [Lo AW. Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 1991;59:1279-313.] modified rescaled range analysis. We

  17. THE STEEL EUROPEAN STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica CHIRILA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Testing the hypothesis of informational efficiency is a permanent preoccupation of researchers because the theories and the models of modern finance are based on it. This paper presents the results obtained after testing the efficiency hypothesis, in the weak form, for the European stock market of the companies that belong to the economic steel sub-sector. Following the use of both linear and non-linear tests of autocorrelation of returns we can conclude that the European stock market in the economic steel sub-sector is inefficient from an informational point of view and the investors in these stocks may obtain better results than those of the European market in general.

  18. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  19. Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on the Long-Run US-UK Stock Market Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Gupta, Rangan

    We use the economic policy uncertainty indices of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate the US and UK stock market movements. The long-run US-UK stock market correlation depends positively on US economic policy uncertainty shocks....... The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on the US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks while the UK depends significantly on both....

  20. Measuring the relationship between intraday returns, volatility spill-overs and market beta during financial distress / Wayne Peter Brewer

    OpenAIRE

    Brewer, Wayne Peter

    2013-01-01

    The modelling of volatility has long been seminal to finance and risk management in general, as it provides information on the spread of portfolio returns. In order to reduce the overall volatility of a stock portfolio, modern portfolio theory (MPT), within an efficient market hypothesis (EMH) framework, dictates that a well-diversified portfolio should have a market beta of one (thereafter adjusted for risk preference), and thus move in sync with a benchmark market portfolio. Such a stock po...

  1. EU Emission Allowances and the stock market Evidence from the electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes - to our best knowledge - the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Our results suggest that EU Emission Allowance (EUA) price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms: EUA price changes and stock returns of the most important European electricity corporations are shown to be positively related. This effect does not work asymmetrically, so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to EUA appreciations in comparison to depreciations. The carbon market effect is shown to be both time- and country-specific: It is particularly strong for the period of EUA market shock in early 2006, and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered. Stock market reactions to EUA volatility could not be shown. (author)

  2. Stock Market Linkages: Evidence From The US, China And India During The Subprime Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Subprime crisis spillovered the returns and volatility from the US stock market to the other integrated economies. The present study attempts to analyze the stock market linkages between the US, India and China, especially during the US subprime Crisis. The technique of Tri-Variate Vector Autoregression and the Spillover Index has been employed so as to analyze the relations during the time period 2007 to 2009. To estimate the time varying risk parameters, the technique of Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic [TGARCH (1,1] model has been used. A uni-directional causality has been observed from the US market to the Indian and Chinese market, whereas another unidirectional causality has also been spotted running from the Chinese market to the Indian market in the context of stock market returns during the crisis period. A unidirectional volatility spillover from the US to the Indian market and from the Indian to the Chinese market has been found to be significant. As per the volatility Spillover Index, the cross market impact on the volatility reduces over a time period 2007-2009, due to the increased impact of the past volatility and the presence of 'leverage effect'. The falling returns added to the volatility in the respective markets. The efficient tests of causality inspired by Hill (2007 reported an indirect impact of the US market volatility on the Chinese market via Indian. The portfolio managers should discount this information well ahead of time to maintain the portfolio values by taking positions in futures and options market.

  3. THE INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE DURING ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA PRAPTININGSIH

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Volatility in the stock market had strongly affected by the movement of publicly or even inside information. The movements of this information will generate the perspectives and expectations of investors in decision-making. How strong is the level of market efficiency in determining the movement of stock market, especially to achieve stability in the stock market during the economic crisis? How effective are the policies of central banks in controlling the movement of the stock market? This study aims to measure the factors that influence changes in the movement of stock price in Indonesian stock market in terms of market efficiency hypothesis. This research also aims to investigate the effectiveness of central bank policy in controlling and stabilizing the movement of stocks in Indonesia. The research will focus on the economic crisis in 1997 and the global crisis in 2008 as case studies. Thepaperutilizesthe vector error-correction model, impulse responses and variance decomposition in measuring the contribution of the factors that affect the movement of stock and determine the effectiveness of central bank policy. The findings are beneficialto central banks, governments, companies and investors in strengthening the Indonesian Stock Market particularly in facing the threat of financial crisis.

  4. Non-linear characteristics and long-range correlations in Asian stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, J.; Ma, K.; Cai, X.

    2007-05-01

    We test several non-linear characteristics of Asian stock markets, which indicates the failure of efficient market hypothesis and shows the essence of fractal of the financial markets. In addition, by using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to investigate the long range correlation of the volatility in the stock markets, we find that the crossover phenomena exist in the results of DFA. Further, in the region of small volatility, the scaling behavior is more complicated; in the region of large volatility, the scaling exponent is close to 0.5, which suggests the market is more efficient. All these results may indicate the possibility of characteristic multifractal scaling behaviors of the financial markets.

  5. Stock market index prediction using neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komo, Darmadi; Chang, Chein-I.; Ko, Hanseok

    1994-03-01

    A neural network approach to stock market index prediction is presented. Actual data of the Wall Street Journal's Dow Jones Industrial Index has been used for a benchmark in our experiments where Radial Basis Function based neural networks have been designed to model these indices over the period from January 1988 to Dec 1992. A notable success has been achieved with the proposed model producing over 90% prediction accuracies observed based on monthly Dow Jones Industrial Index predictions. The model has also captured both moderate and heavy index fluctuations. The experiments conducted in this study demonstrated that the Radial Basis Function neural network represents an excellent candidate to predict stock market index.

  6. Participation Constraints in the Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Meisner Nielsen, Kasper

    2011-01-01

    We use a natural experiment to investigate the impact of participation constraints on individuals' decisions to invest in the stock market. Unexpected inheritance due to sudden deaths results in exogenous variation in financial wealth, and allows us to examine whether fixed entry and ongoing...... participation costs cause non-participation. We have three key findings. First, windfall wealth has a positive effect on participation. Second, the majority of households do not react to sizeable windfalls by entering the stock market, but hold on to substantial safe assets—even over longer horizons. Third...

  7. Measuring the Common Component of Stock Market Fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific Region

    OpenAIRE

    Mapa, Dennis S.; Briones, Kristine Joy S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper fits Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to the daily closing stock market indices of Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan to compute for time-varying weights associated with the volatilities of individual indices. These weights and the returns of the various indices were then used to determine the common component of stock market returns. Our results suggest that a common component ...

  8. Model of Risk Forewarn and Investment Decision in Stock Markets and Its Realization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZOU Hui-wen; TANG Bing-yong; WANG Li-ping; XU Guang-wei

    2004-01-01

    Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface.

  9. The Volatility of Oil Prices on Stock Exchanges in the Context of Recent Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu Maria-Floriana

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Oil along with currencies and gold are the main indicators of the most important processes which take place in the world economy, quotations’ volatility being always followed by economic and social events. Quiet periods of oil prices, when quotations have a constant evolution or only suffer minor fluctuations, are very rare. Most of the time, very sharp price increases or decreases are happening over night or week. This is mostly due to the fact that the oil market is extremely speculative, being influenced by political, military, social, or meteorological events. Since the major oil price shocks of the 70s, the impact of oil price changes on the economic reality of a country or region has been widely studied by academic researchers. Moreover, the stock market plays an important role in the economic welfare and development of a country. Therefore, a vast number of studies have investigated the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns, being discovered significant effects of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity for both developed and emerging countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volatility of oil prices on stock exchanges taking into consideration the recent events that have affected the oil markets around the globe. Furthermore, based on the findings of this research, some possible scenarios will be developed, taking into account various events that might take place and their potential outcome for oil prices’ future.

  10. China’s Stock Market Integration with a Leading Power and a Close Neighbor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yi

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Current integration and co-movement among international stock markets has been boosted by increased globalization of the world economy, and profit-chasing capital surfing across borders. With a reputation as the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s stock market has continued gaining momentum during recent years and incurred growing attention from academicians, as well as practitioners. Taking into account economic and geographical considerations, the US and Hong Kong are considerably the most comparable stock markets to China. The usual vector error correction model (VECM could overlook the long memory feature of cointegration residual series, which can in turn exert bias on the resulting inferences. To overcome its limitations, we employ a fractionally integrated VECM (FIVECM in this paper to investigate the long-term cointegration relations binding China’s stock market to the aforementioned stock markets. In addition, by augmenting the FIVECM with multivariate GARCH model, the return transmission and volatility spillover between market return series were revealed simultaneously. Our empirical results show that China’s stock market is fractionally cointegrated with the two markets, and it appears that China’s stock market has stronger ties with its neighboring Hong Kong market than with the world superpower, the US market.

  11. Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

  12. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  13. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

    2011-01-01

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

  14. Analysis on the Influence of Stock Index Futures on Chinese Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王钊

    2014-01-01

    As the first product of financial futures in China, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures is a symbol of the continual improvement and development of Chinese capital market system. So it would be bound to generate immeasurable influence on Chinese capital market and financial system. Starting from introducing the relevant summaries of stock index futures, this paper analyzes the influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in the international stock market;then, it analyzes influence of the stock index futures on the fluctuation in Chinese stock market, in order to propose some suggestions to the policies for developing Chinese stock index futures.

  15. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  16. Fundamental volatility and stock returns : does fundamental volatility explain stock returns?

    OpenAIRE

    Selboe, Guner K.; Virdee, Jaspal Singh

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, we investigate whether the fundamental uncertainty can explain the crosssection of stock returns. To measure the fundamental uncertainty, we estimate rolling standard deviations and accounting betas of four different fundamentals: revenues, gross profit, earnings and cash flows. The standard deviation and the beta of revenues significantly explain returns in the Fama-Macbeth procedure, but only appears significant among smaller stocks in the portfolio formation ...

  17. An operatorial approach to stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagarello, F

    2006-01-01

    We propose and discuss some toy models of stock markets using the same operatorial approach adopted in quantum mechanics. Our models are suggested by the discrete nature of the number of shares and of the cash which are exchanged in a real market, and by the existence of conserved quantities, like the total number of shares or some linear combination of cash and shares. The same framework as the one used in the description of a gas of interacting bosons is adopted

  18. The Stock Market, Profit and Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Olivier Blanchard; Changyong Rhee; Lawrence Summers

    1990-01-01

    Should managers, when making investment decisions, follow the signals given by the stock market even if those do not coincide with their own assessments of fundamental value? This paper reviews the theoretical arguments and examines the empirical evidence, constructing and using a new US time series of data on the q ratio from 1900 to 1988. We decompose q - - the ratio of the market value of corporate capital to its replacement cost - - into the product of two terms, reflecting "fundamentals"...

  19. Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baele, L.

    2003-01-01

    This paper quantifies the magnitude and time-varying nature of volatility spillovers from the aggregate European (EU) and US market to 13 local European equity markets.I develop a shock spillover model that decomposes local unexpected returns into a country speciffic shock, a regional European

  20. Stock volatility as a risk factor for coronary heart disease death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wenjuan; Chen, Honglei; Jiang, Lili; Song, Guixiang; Kan, Haidong

    2011-04-01

    The volatility of financial markets may cause substantial emotional and physical stress among investors. We hypothesize that this may have adverse effects on cardiovascular health. The Chinese stock markets were extremely volatile between 2006 and 2008. We, therefore, examined the relationship between daily change of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index (referred as the Index) and coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2008 in Shanghai, the financial capital of China. Daily death and stock performance data were collected from the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention and SSE, respectively. Data were analysed with over-dispersed generalized linear Poisson models, controlling for long-term and seasonal trends of CHD mortality, day of the week, Index closing value, weather conditions, and air pollution levels. We observed a U-shaped relationship between the Index change and CHD deaths: both rising and falling of the Index were associated with more deaths and the fewest deaths coincided with little or no change of the index. We also examined the absolute daily change of the Index in relation to CHD deaths: in a 1-day lag model, each 100-point change of the Index corresponded to 5.17% (95% confidence interval: 1.71, 8.63%) increase in CHD deaths. Further analysis showed that the association was stronger for out-of-hospital CHD death than for in-hospital death. We found that CHD deaths fluctuated with daily stock changes in Shanghai, suggesting that stock volatility may adversely affect cardiovascular health.

  1. Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...

  2. Financial literacy and stock market participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rooij, Maarten; Lusardi, Annamaria; Alessie, Rob

    We have devised two special modules for De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Household Survey to measure financial literacy and study its relationship to stock market participation. We find that the majority of respondents display basic financial knowledge and have some grasp of concepts such as interest

  3. Stock Market Integration Measurement: Investigation of Malaysia and Singapore Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    B. K. Yeoh; Z. Arsad; C. W. Hooy

    2010-01-01

    This paper tests the level of market integration between Malaysia and Singapore stock markets with the world market. Kalman Filter (KF) methodology is used on the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) and the pricing errors estimated within the framework of ICAPM are used as a measure of market integration or segmentation. The advantage of the KF technique is that it allows for time-varying coefficients in estimating ICAPM and hence able to capture the varying degree of market int...

  4. Is Stock Market Crash Predictable? The Case Study of Stock Markets in Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Ng, Ho Keng

    2008-01-01

    What is the stock market? A stock market is a market place that enables trading of company stocks, other forms of securities (such as bonds, debentures, and equity securities) and derivatives (for example, futures, forwards, options, and swaps). Stock market is an important source for companies or fund raisers to raise money and for investors or traders to make or loose money. It is also a market place for speculators to make arbitraged investment for financial gain. Due to its complexity and...

  5. The influence of volatility spill-overs and market beta on portfolio construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Heymans

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study adds to Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT by providing an additional measure to market beta in constructing a more efficient investment portfolio. The additional measure analyses the volatility spill-over effects among stocks within the same portfolio. Using intraday stock returns from five top-40 listed stocks on the JSE between July 2008 and April 2010, volatility spill-over effects were estimated with a residual- based test (aggregate shock [AS] model framework. It is shown that when a particular stock attracted fewer volatility spill-over effects from the other stocks in the portfolio, the overall portfolio volatility decreased as well. In most cases market beta showcased similar results. Therefore, in order to construct a more efficient risk- adjusted portfolio, one requires both a portfolio that has a unit correlation with the market (beta-based, and stocks that showcase the least amount of volatility spill-over effects amongst one another. These results might assist portfolio managers to construct lower mean variance portfolios.

  6. Juxtaposition of micro and macro dynamics of dividend policy on stock price volatility in financial sector of Pakistan : (comparative analysis through common, fixed, random and GMM effect)

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid, Kashif; Khurram, Muhammad Usman; Ghaffar, Wasim

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the dividend policy dynamics in context to firm specific and macroeconomic variables with stock price volatility in the financial sector of Pakistan. Panel data is used for the period 2006-2014 to identify the common, fixed, random and GMM effect. It is concluded that dividend payout ratio, market value, interest volatility and inflation volatility have positive significant correlation with price volatility. Common effect model shows that dividend payou...

  7. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.N. Arshad

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007 and second, after (2008-2012 the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ. Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

  8. Stock Market Integration in Africa: The Case of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and Selected African Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Gail Ncube; Kapingura Forget Mingiri

    2015-01-01

    African stock markets are deemed to be small, segmented and illiquid. Given this back ground, the study utilises monthly data for the period 2000-2008, employing the Johansen and Julius cointegration method to determine the long-run relationship between the five selected African stock markets. Granger causality tests were also conducted to establish if there are any causal links between the stock markets in Africa. The analysis in the study indicates that African stock markets are improving i...

  9. SENSITIVITY OF THE INVESTOR'S TOWARDS STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT

    OpenAIRE

    M. Jaya

    2017-01-01

    Investment in stock market has become a common phenomenon for all the individuals. The growth of stock market contributes to national economic growth only when this growth translates into increased mobilization of resources, return from investment, and minimizing the risk attached to stock market investment. This survey has been conducted to find out the stock market investment pattern and risk diversification of retail equity investors. A well structured questionnaire which is pilot teste...

  10. Co-Movements Of U.S. And European Stock Markets Before And After The 2008 Gloal Stock Market Crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meric Ilhan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Empirical studies show that correlation between national stock markets increased and the benefits of global portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the global stock market crash of 1987. The 1987 and 2008 crashes are the two most important global stock market crashes since the 1929 Great depression. Although the effects of the 1987 crash on the comovements of national stock markets have been investigated extensively, the effects of the 2008 crash have not been studied sufficiently. In this paper we study this issue with a research sample that includes the U.S stock market and twenty European stock markets. We find that correlation between the twenty-one stock markets increased and the benefits of portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the 2008 stock market crash.

  11. Evidence of increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market through the analysis of its variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Huerta-Quintanilla, R.; Rodríguez-Achach, M.

    2007-07-01

    It is well known that there exist statistical and structural differences between the stock markets of developed and emerging countries. In this work, and in order to find out if the efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market has been changing over time, we have performed and compared several analyses of the variations of the Mexican Stock Market index (IPC) and Dow Jones industrial average index (DJIA) for different periods of their historical daily data. We have analyzed the returns autocorrelation function (ACF) and used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study returns variations. We also analyze the volatility, mean value and standard deviation of both markets and compare their evolution. We conclude from the overall result of these studies, that they show compelling evidence of the increment of efficiency of the Mexican Stock Market over time. The data samples analyzed here, correspond to daily values of the IPC and DJIA for the period 10/30/1978-02/28/2006.

  12. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... to generation combination portfolio. Proposed solutions should be able to tackle with emerging challenges which are mainly due to high variability and unpredictability of intermittent renewable resources. In this paper high price volatility will be introduced as an emerging challenge in wind dominant...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts...

  13. Immediate causality network of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Li; Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2018-02-01

    Extensive works show that a network of stocks within a single stock market stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system, such as collapses and/or crises. But a financial event covers usually several markets or even the global financial system. This mismatch of scale leads to lack of concise information to coordinate the event. In this work by using the transfer entropy we reconstruct the influential network between ten typical stock markets distributed in the world. Interesting findings include, before a financial crisis the connection strength reaches a maximum, which can act as an early warning signal of financial crises. The markets in America are monodirectionally and strongly influenced by that in Europe and act as the center. Some strongly linked pairs have also close correlations. The findings are helpful in understanding the evolution and modelling the dynamical process of the global financial system. This method can be extended straightly to find early warning signals for physiological and ecological systems, etc.

  14. Long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvo Dajčman

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the fractal structure of the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns. The presence of long memory components in asset returns provides evidence against the weak-form of stock market efficiency. The starting working hypothesis that there is no long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns is tested by applying the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS (1992 test, Lo’s (1991 modified rescaled range (R/S test, and the wavelet ordinary least squares (WOLS estimator of Jensen (1999. The research showed that the WOLS estimator may lead to different conclusions regarding long memory presence in the stock returns from the KPSS and unit root tests or Lo’s R/S test. Furthermore, it proved that the fractal structure of individual stock returns may be masked in aggregated stock market returns (i.e. in returns of stock index. The main finding of the paper is that both the Croatian stock index Crobex and individual stocks in this index exhibit long memory. Long memory is identified for some stocks in the Hungarian stock market as well, but not for the stock market index BUX. Based on the results of the long memory tests, it can be concluded that while the Hungarian stock market is weakform efficient, the Croatian stock market is not.

  15. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  16. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  17. Using the Stock Market to Teach Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faux, David A.; Hearn, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Students are interested in money. Personal finance is an important issue for most students, especially as they move into university education and take a greater control of their own finances. Many are also interested in stock markets and their ability to allow someone to make, and lose, large sums of money, with their interest fueled by the boom in technology-based stocks of 2000/2001 followed by their subsequent dramatic collapse and the publicizing of so-called "rogue-traders." There is also a much greater ownership of stocks by families following public offerings, stock-based savings products, and the ability to trade stocks online. Consequently, there has been a steady growth of finance and finance-related courses available within degree programs in response to the student demand, with many students motivated by the huge salaries commanded by those with a successful career in the financial sector. We report here details of a joint project between Charterhouse School and the University of Surrey designed to exploit the excitement of finance to teach elements of the high school (age 16-18) curriculum through modeling and simulation.

  18. A study of market efficiency in the stock market, forex market and bullion market in India

    OpenAIRE

    Sarker, Debnarayan; Ghosh, Bikash Kumar

    2007-01-01

    This study suggests that, run test, which are based on signs of indices / rates, do not reject efficient market hypothesis in the case of all the three markets, whereas VR tests, which capture the variation in permanent component of the series as a ratio to the total variation, reject the efficient market hypothesis in the case of the gold markets. Efficient market hypothesis in the case of Stock markets, Forex markets and Silver markets cannot be rejected based on VR tests. Since VR tests a...

  19. A multi-assets artificial stock market with zero-intelligence traders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponta, L.; Raberto, M.; Cincotti, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a multi-assets artificial financial market populated by zero-intelligence traders with finite financial resources is presented. The market is characterized by different types of stocks representing firms operating in different sectors of the economy. Zero-intelligence traders follow a random allocation strategy which is constrained by finite resources, past market volatility and allocation universe. Within this framework, stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering, fat-tailed distribution of returns and reversion to the mean. Moreover, the cross-correlations between returns of different stocks are studied using methods of random matrix theory. The probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix shows the presence of outliers, similar to those recently observed on real data for business sectors. It is worth noting that business sectors have been recovered in our framework without dividends as only consequence of random restrictions on the allocation universe of zero-intelligence traders. Furthermore, in the presence of dividend-paying stocks and in the case of cash inflow added to the market, the artificial stock market points out the same structural results obtained in the simulation without dividends. These results suggest a significative structural influence on statistical properties of multi-assets stock market.

  20. Taxation, Transfer Income and Stock Market Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Marcel; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne

    We study a redistributive tax system that taxes income and redistributes tax revenues in such a way that relatively rich agents are net contributors to relatively poor agents. The closed-form solution of our model allows two main conclusions: (i) Despite ongoing transfers, wealth levels are not h......We study a redistributive tax system that taxes income and redistributes tax revenues in such a way that relatively rich agents are net contributors to relatively poor agents. The closed-form solution of our model allows two main conclusions: (i) Despite ongoing transfers, wealth levels...... are not harmonized because poorer agents mainly use their transfer income to finance present consumption. (ii) Since the evolution of the economy determines both the level of tax revenues and the evolution of the stock market, transfer income is subject to stock market risk. Hence, poorer agents optimally reduce...

  1. Price jumps on European stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hanousek, Jan; Kočenda, Evžen; Novotný, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 14, č. 1 (2014), s. 10-22 ISSN 2214-8450 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : stock markets * price jump indicators * non-parametric testing Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  2. Exploring heterogeneous market hypothesis using realized volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Isa, Zaidi; Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates the heterogeneous market hypothesis using high frequency data. The cascaded heterogeneous trading activities with different time durations are modelled by the heterogeneous autoregressive framework. The empirical study indicated the presence of long memory behaviour and predictability elements in the financial time series which supported heterogeneous market hypothesis. Besides the common sum-of-square intraday realized volatility, we also advocated two power variation realized volatilities in forecast evaluation and risk measurement in order to overcome the possible abrupt jumps during the credit crisis. Finally, the empirical results are used in determining the market risk using the value-at-risk approach. The findings of this study have implications for informationally market efficiency analysis, portfolio strategies and risk managements.

  3. Seasonal Trends in Lithuanian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žaneta Simanavičienė

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article is to disentangle different calendar effects which leave efficiency holes in Lithuanian market. This paper presents and tests if commonly described seasonal patterns exist in Lithuanian stock market. Analysis of three different sections: period-of-the-year; week-of-the-month and day-of-the-week, suggests that calendar effects do exist in this market. The multitude of explanations for the seasonal effect leaves the reader confused about its primary cause(s: is it tax-loss selling, window dressing, information, bid-ask bounce, or a combination of these causes? The confusion arises, in part, because evidence has generally been presented in support of a particular hypothesis though the same evidence may be consistent with another hypothesis. Methodology/methods are logical and systemic analysis of research literature based on the comparative and generalization methods as well as statistical methods. Scientific aim of the article is the lack of arguments questioning if market prices operating system is fully effective. Novelty of the paper is to the answer to the question what seasonal anomalies are also present in the stock market of new open economy countries. Findings show that using this modified strategy investor could achieve 20.7% compounded annual growth rate versus 7.8% achieved using simply holding stocks throughout. The hypothesis asserts that returns generally will be greater following the “January effect”. There is limited amount of data for constructing robust seasonal strategies so we modified Buy and Hold strategy with simple rules of using best and worst months to show how they influence OMXV index performance. In the conclusions, empirical results using stock index returns for 2000 - 2010 support the hypothesis in Lithuaian stock market. Abnormal activity of OMXV index’s performance is found in the end of summer and throughout autumn. August is best performer of the year while October is

  4. Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-03-01

    We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

  5. Simplified stock markets described by number operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagarello, F.

    2009-06-01

    In this paper we continue our systematic analysis of the operatorial approach previously proposed in an economical context and we discuss a mixed toy model of a simplified stock market, i.e. a model in which the price of the shares is given as an input. We deduce the time evolution of the portfolio of the various traders of the market, as well as of other observable quantities. As in a previous paper, we solve the equations of motion by means of a fixed point like approximation.

  6. The synchronicity between the stock and the stock index via information in market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hai-Ling; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    The synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index in a market system is investigated. The results show that: (i) the synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index increases with the rising degree of market information capitalized into stock prices in certain range; (ii) the synchronicity decreases for large firm-specific information; (iii) the stock return synchronicity is small compared to the big noise trading, however the variance noise facilitates the synchronization within the tailored realms. These findings may be helpful in understanding the effect of market information on synchronicity, especially for the response of firm-specific information and noise trading to synchronicity.

  7. Renewable energies enter the stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulanger, Vincent

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the new context created by the obligation for renewable energy installations to sell their electricity directly on the market. Thus, new practices and new actors appear like aggregators which belong to three categories: trading departments or subsidiary companies of national operators, trading departments or subsidiary companies of developers and producers of renewable energy, or independent market operators. The author describes the different cases in which renewable electricity producers will need aggregators (the mandatory purchase contract reaches its end, an additional income in the case of bidding or outside this case). The author also describes the role and responsibilities of aggregators, notably with respect to RTE. Such a market operation of course results in the taking of the electricity price on the stock market into account, and in the associated risks for aggregators

  8. Calendar anomalies in the Russian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research note investigates whether or not calendar anomalies (such as the January, day-of-the-week and turn-of-the-month effects characterize the Russian stock market, which could be interpreted as evidence against market efficiency. Specifically, OLS, GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH models are estimated using daily data for the MICEX market index over the period Sept. 1997–Apr. 2016. The empirical results show the importance of taking into account transactions costs (proxied by the bid-ask spreads: once these are incorporated into the analysis, calendar anomalies disappear, and therefore, there is no evidence of exploitable profit opportunities based on them that would be inconsistent with market efficiency.

  9. 26 CFR 1.1296-1 - Mark to market election for marketable stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Mark to market election for marketable stock. 1....1296-1 Mark to market election for marketable stock. (a) Definitions—(1) Eligible RIC. An eligible RIC... included in gross income by the company pursuant to such mark to market election with respect to such stock...

  10. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  11. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  12. Momentum Investment Strategy : (An Empirical Study of the Canadian Stock Market and the Swedish Stock Market)

    OpenAIRE

    Ludvigsson, Anita

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Market efficiency is a highly debated topic within the academic research field of finance. Several studies have presented that the return on stocks may be predictable by employing the momentum investment strategy, which contradicts the Efficient Market Hypothesis in exchange market. There is extensive international evidence, on an academic level that the momentum investment strategy yields positive abnormal returns when short-term periods are considered. This paper examines the profi...

  13. The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The method of analysis used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques. The study measures the relationship between stock market development indices and economic growth. The stock market capitalization ratio was used as a proxy for market size while value traded ratio and turnover ratio were used as proxy for market ...

  14. Global stock market linkages reduce potential for diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Karen K. Lewis

    2012-01-01

    Recent European government debt difficulties demonstrate how linked stock markets have become. Problems in countries such as Greece and Italy have depressed stock markets not only on the continent but also in the United States. Such comovement across international financial markets highlights U.S. equity markets’ exposure to foreign markets.

  15. Sensitivity, Persistence and Asymmetric Effects in International Stock Market Volatility during the Global Financial Crisis || Efectos de sensibilidad, persistencia y asimetría en la volatilidad de los mercados bursátiles internacionales
en el entorno de la crisis financiera global

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel, Vítor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial market volatility is an important element when setting up port- folio management strategies, option pricing and market regulation. The Subprime crisis affected all markets around the world. Daily data of twelve stock indexes for the period of October 1999 to June 2011 are studied using basic GARCH type models. The data were then divided into three different sub-periods to allow the behaviour of stock market in different sub-periods to be investigated. The following sub-periods are identified: Dot-Com crisis, Quiet and Subprime crisis. This paper revealed that the Subprime crisis turned out to have bigger impact on stock market volatility, namely at sensitivity, persistence and asymmetric effects. || La volatilidad de los mercados financieros es un importante elemento para la estrategia de carteras de inversión y para la regulación de los mercados. La crisis subprime afectó a los mercados bursátiles mundiales. Para realizar este estudio, fueron tomados datos diarios relativos a doce mercados bursátiles, desde el 4 de octubre de 1999 hasta el 30 de junio de 2011. El período de la muestra considerado ha sido subdividido en tres subperiodos distintos: crisis de las empresas tecnológicas, tranquilo y crisis financiera global. Para estudiar la volatilidad de los mercados bursátiles, se ha recurrido a modelos de tipo GARCH. Los resultados demuestran la influencia de la crisis financiera global en el comportamiento de la volatilidad del mercado bursátil, sobre todo en cuanto a la sensibilidad, la persistencia y la asimetría.

  16. Stock Market Optimism and Cointegration among Stocks: The Case of the Prague Stock Exchange

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baxa, Jaromír

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 5-16 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/03/H057 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : stock market * optimism * cointegration Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  17. Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

    2018-02-01

    An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

  18. Do stock markets discipline US bank holding companies : Just monitoring, or also influencing?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baele, L.T.M.; De Bruyckere, V.; De Jonghe, O.G.; Vander Vennet, R.

    This paper presents evidence that bank managers adjust key strategic variables following a risk and/or valuation signal from the stock market. Banks receive a risk signal when they exhibit substantially higher (semi-)volatility compared to the best performing bank(s) with similar characteristics,

  19. Market Returns and Weak-Form Efficiency: the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Frimpong, Joseph Magnus; Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as the basis for our analysis. The GSE DSI returns series exhibit volatility clustering, an indication of inefficiency on the GSE. The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for t...

  20. Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ

    2007-03-01

    This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.

  1. Risk-Adjusted Returns and Stock Market Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Gary; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that stock market games are designed to provide students with a background for investing in securities, especially stocks. Reviews two games used with secondary students, analyzes statistical data from these experiences, and considers weaknesses in the games. (CFR)

  2. Stock market prediction using technical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradić-Martinović Aleksandra

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Technical analysis (TA is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators. It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

  3. The relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and stock volatility in GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Chen, Ting Ting

    2016-08-01

    We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatility. The impact of trading volumes or number of transactions on volatility is measured using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We find that the GARCH effects, that is, persistence of volatility, is not always removed by adding trading volumes or number of transactions, indicating that trading volumes and number of transactions do not adequately represent the rate of information arrivals.

  4. STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING CLUSTERING WITH META-HEURISTIC APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Prasanna, S.; Ezhilmaran, D.

    2015-01-01

    Various examinations are performed to predict the stock values, yet not many points at assessing the predictability of the direction of stock index movement. Stock market prediction with data mining method is a standout amongst the most paramount issues to be researched and it is one of the interesting issues of stock market research over several decades. The approach of advanced data mining tools and refined database innovations has empowered specialists to handle the immense measure of data...

  5. STOCK MARKET PREDICTION USING CLUSTERING WITH META-HEURISTIC APPROACHES

    OpenAIRE

    Prasanna, S.; Ezhilmaran, D.

    2014-01-01

    Various examinations are performed to predict the stock values, yet not many points at assessing the predictability of the direction of stock index movement. Stock market prediction with data mining method is a standout amongst the most paramount issues to be researched and it is one of the interesting issues of stock market research over several decades. The approach of advanced data mining tools and refined database innovations has empowered specialists to handle the immense measure of data...

  6. Facebook drives behavior of passive households in stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siikanen, Milla; Baltakys, Kęstutis; Kanniainen, Juho; Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava; Hussain, Abid

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies using data on social media and stock markets have mainly focused on predicting stock returns. Instead of predicting stock price movements, we examine the relation between Facebook data and investors' decision making in stock markets with a unique data on investors' transactions on Nokia. We find that the decisions to buy versus sell are associated with Facebook data especially for passive households and also for nonprofit organizations. At the same time, it seems that more soph...

  7. Evidence of the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian stock market in different market states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman H. Metwally

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional finance theories fail to explain several anomalies observed in security markets. High levels of market turnover are among the most challenging market puzzles that have been documented in many security markets. Several studies assert the correlation between past market return and current market turnover. Behavioral finance theories assume that overconfidence bias is the reason behind this relation. Hence, this paper aims to study the impact of overconfidence – a behavioral bias stemming from the second building block of behavioral finance “cognitive psychology” and affecting traders’ beliefs and thereby their trading behavior in form of excessive trading. DeBondt and Tahler (1995. The study tests the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian Stock market during the period from 2002 till 2012 on the aggregate market level trough examining the relation between market returns and market turnover in different market states, seeking to document or deny whether overconfidence bias encourages investors to trade or not . The whole period is divided into four sub periods; two tranquil upward trending (2005-2005 and (2005-2008 and two volatile and down ward trending (financial crisis 2008-2010 and the (Egyptian Revolution Period 2010-2012 A quantitative research using secondary data and applying time series statistical techniques is designed. The research is following Statman et al. (2006 methodology. Time series analysis, which is based on four statistical techniques; mainly Vector Auto Regression, Optimal Lag Selection, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality Tests are being used. Market Turnover ratios are used as proxies for overconfidence. The research finds a significant impact of past market return on current turnover in lag1, then turns negative in lag 2, and returns back positive in lag3, then remains positive and significant until lag5. This is in line with the overconfidence and self-attribution theory of Denial et al

  8. Stock Price Volatility and Role of Dividend Policy: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Syed Akif; Noreen, Umara

    2016-01-01

    Despite years of empirical research, the linkage between dividend policy and stock price volatility remains controversial among the researchers and scholars. This research endeavors to figure out the relationship between stock price volatility and dividend policy of listed companies in Pakistan. A sample of fifty firms, based upon consistent dividend paying behavior, listed on Karachi Stock Exchange has been selected from non-financial sectors, for the period of 2005 to 2012. Multiple regress...

  9. Enterprises from NewConnect Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Gołębiowski

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Corporate capital structure has been the subject of extensive research in the last decades. The article briefly examines the existing theories of corporate capital structure. However, applying those concepts in practice has brought mixed results. This study is another attempt to determine capital structure in selected companies as well as analyze impact of the pre-defined debt level on effectiveness of economic entity. Variables like size and sector and their influence on debt-raising ability have also been verified. 10 companies permitted to trade on NewConnect stock market constituted the sample for this study.

  10. Impact of global financial crisis on stylized facts between energy markets and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Tan Kim; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

    2014-06-01

    Understanding the stylized facts is extremely important and has becomes a hot issue nowadays. However, recent global financial crisis that started from United States had spread all over the world and adversely affected the commodities and financial sectors of both developed and developing countries. This paper tends to examine the impact of crisis on stylized facts between energy and stock markets using ARCH-family models based on the experience over 2008 global financial crisis. Empirical results denote that there is long lasting, persists and positively significant the autocorrelation function of absolute returns and their squares in both markets for before and during crisis. Besides that, leverage effects are found in stock markets whereby bad news has a greater impact on volatility than good news for both before and during crisis. However, crisis does not indicate any impact on risk-return tradeoff for both energy and stock markets. For forecasting evaluations, GARCH model and FIAPARCH model indicate superior out of sample forecasts for before and during crisis respectively.

  11. Stocks and energy shocks : the impact of energy accidents on stock market value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, B.; Boersen, A.

    We investigate how financial market participants value energy accidents. We employ an event study to look into the response of stock markets to 209 accidents. These accidents were derived from Sovacool's (2008) database on major energy accidents from 1907 to 2007. It appears that the stock market in

  12. Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abounoori, Esmaiel; Elmi, Zahra (Mila); Nademi, Younes

    2016-03-01

    This paper evaluates several GARCH models regarding their ability to forecast volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). These include GARCH models with both Gaussian and fat-tailed residual conditional distribution, concerning their ability to describe and forecast volatility from 1-day to 22-day horizon. Results indicate that AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED model outperforms other models at one-day horizon. Also, the AR(2)-MRSGARCH-GED as well as AR(2)-MRSGARCH-t models outperform other models at 5-day horizon. In 10 day horizon, three models of AR(2)-MRSGARCH outperform other models. Concerning 22 day forecast horizon, results indicate no differences between MRSGARCH models with that of standard GARCH models. Regarding Risk management out-of-sample evaluation (95% VaR), a few models seem to provide reasonable and accurate VaR estimates at 1-day horizon, with a coverage rate close to the nominal level. According to the risk management loss functions, there is not a uniformly most accurate model.

  13. Market Performance and Accounting Information as the Reference of Stocks Portfolio Formation in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando

    2009-01-01

    This study aimed to a stock portfolio formed with composite of companies market (PER, PBV, ROE, EPS, PSR, and B/M, VaR) and accounting performance (ROE, and EPS) also their market capitalization in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2003-2006. Some clarification need to achieved, such as: real difference among variabel refer to their market capitalization and influence of predictor to stock return. Hereinafter, the performance of selected portfolio were evaluated. The evaluation result conclude ...

  14. MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF TURKISH AND ROMANIAN STOCK MARKETS TO EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismet ATES

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Since the process of globalization accelerates all over the world, trade and economic relations among countries become very intensive and the stock markets in these countries started to integrate to each other quickly. As a result of this, world wide stoc

  15. Stock market speculation: Spontaneous symmetry breaking of economic valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2000-09-01

    Firm foundation theory estimates a security's firm fundamental value based on four determinants: expected growth rate, expected dividend payout, the market interest rate and the degree of risk. In contrast, other views of decision-making in the stock market, using alternatives such as human psychology and behavior, bounded rationality, agent-based modeling and evolutionary game theory, expound that speculative and crowd behavior of investors may play a major role in shaping market prices. Here, we propose that the two views refer to two classes of companies connected through a "phase transition". Our theory is based on (1) the identification of the fundamental parity symmetry of prices (p→-p), which results from the relative direction of payment flux compared to commodity flux and (2) the observation that a company's risk-adjusted growth rate discounted by the market interest rate behaves as a control parameter for the observable price. We find a critical value of this control parameter at which a spontaneous symmetry-breaking of prices occurs, leading to a spontaneous valuation in absence of earnings, similarly to the emergence of a spontaneous magnetization in Ising models in absence of a magnetic field. The low growth rate phase is described by the firm foundation theory while the large growth rate phase is the regime of speculation and crowd behavior. In practice, while large "finite-time horizon" effects round off the predicted singularities, our symmetry-breaking speculation theory accounts for the apparent over-pricing and the high volatility of fast growing companies on the stock markets.

  16. Stock market and macroeconomic variables : evidences from Lithuania

    OpenAIRE

    Pilinkus, Donatas

    2009-01-01

    The stock market has been historically viewed as a reliable instrument to indicate economic processes. However, contemporary papers reveal the controversy of the issue. A clear understanding of stock market determinants is vital for investors, regulators, and academic researchers. Therefore, future researches are required to further explore this issue. The present paper analyzes relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Lithuanian stock market index, i.e. OMX Vilnius in...

  17. Macedonian Small Investors’ Behavior Towards Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelovska Julijana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Convenience sample survey was fielded to the Macedonian individual stock market investors to find out whether their investment behavior can be explained by some underlying factors grounded in the behavioral approach to the study of financial markets. Descriptive statistics technique has been used to analyze the investors’ attitude about the market’s efficiency and to test different theories of behavioral finance. The results have indicated that investors are not completely rational individuals as supposed by theories of traditional finance. Also in the theoretical framework of behavioral finance Macedonian investors use heuristics, or rules of thumb, when judging information and forming beliefs, but Macedonian investors do not behave as suggested within prospect theory and regret aversion.

  18. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  19. Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

    2007-01-01

    Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

  20. RUSSIAN STOCK MARKET INSTITUTIONAL PARTICIPANTS: HABITUS AND PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Borisovich Podgorny

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The global investment experience shows that economic growth is impossible without the creation of an effective national stock market. Also, along with the solution of the funds inflow into the economy, developed stock market contributes the creation of a mass economy owners community. Economic characteristics – economy demand for credit resources (especially in sanction terms, the availability of the savings among the Russian population, rates reduction on bank deposits, – saying that “investment boom” should take place in Russia today, in which a significant part of the population must be taken mass participation in the stock market, including the way through collective investment. However, the current situation does not allow us to talk about the successful development this direction of the Russian stock market. In this article, prepared in the framework of the author’s special sociological theory «The Russian Stock Market as a Social Space» [27], presented the results of Russian stock market institutional investors study including: the statistical indicators characterizing institutional investors on the stock market were analyzed; the practices caused by the existing habitus of Russian stock market institutional investors were classified and studied. It was found that the habitus of most institutional investors participating in the Russian stock market is marked a speculative nature.

  1. Politics and the Stock Market ; Evidence from Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Jörg Döpke; Christian Pierdzioch

    2004-01-01

    We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the U.S., we find no evidence for an election cycle in German stock market returns. However, estimated popularity functions and VARs suggest that stock market returns have had an impact on the popularity of...

  2. Market Risk in Demutualised Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew Worthington; Helen Higgs

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines market risk in four demutualised and self-listed stock exchanges: the Australian Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Börse, the London Stock Exchange and the Singapore Stock Exchange. Daily company and MSCI index returns provide the respective asset and market portfolio data. A bivariate MA-GARCH model is used to estimate time-varying betas for each exchange from listing until 7 June 2005. While the results indicate significant beta volatility, unit root tests show the betas to b...

  3. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  4. The Use of Risk and Return for Testing the Stability of Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Chirilă

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The European Central Bank stipulates that a financial system is stable if the financial risks are evaluated and rewarded correctly and if the economic and financial shocks are absorbed. When analyzing the return and volatility of the stock exchanges we may ascertain that a stock exchange is stable if there is a connection between return and volatility and if the shocks determined by the new positive and negative information do not cause significant changes of the volatility. We took into consideration the values of the indices of stock markets from Holland (AEX, Belgium (BEL, Romania (BET, Hungary (BUX, Germany (DAX, France (CAC, Czech Republic (PX, Slovakia (SAX, Austria (ATX, Estonia (OMXT, Latvia (OMXR and Lithuania (OMXV. In order to test the relationship between return-volatility and volatility asymmetry we estimated a GJR-GARCH-M model. The results confirm the lack of existence of a correlation between return and volatility for the entire period under analysis and the existence of the volatility asymmetry.

  5. Does Automation Improve Stock Market Efficiency? Evidence from Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Mensah, Justice T.; Pomaa-Berko, Maame; Adom, Philip Kofi

    2012-01-01

    As a burgeoning capital market in an emerging economy, automation of the stock market is regarded as a major step towards integrating the financial market as a conduit for economic growth. The automation of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) in 2008 is expected among other things to improve the efficiency of the market. This paper therefore investigates the impact of the automation on the efficiency of the GSE within the framework of the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) using daily mar...

  6. Stock market development and integration in SADC (Southern African Development Community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil K. Bundoo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the extent of stock market integration in SADC by first analyzing beta and sigma convergence and then using cointegration analysis. The US market and the SSA index were used as benchmarks. The sample period was from January 1999 to December 2011 using daily market index data. We observe beta convergence but not sigma convergence; though the sigma values are falling for most of the SADC countries. Under normal conditions, no cointegrating vector was identified when using the US market as benchmark. When using the SSA index as benchmark one cointegrating vector was identified. The paper also takes stock of the extent of software and hardware stock market integration in SADC. The SADC stock exchanges must work towards greater integration so that they can attract more sustained portfolio flows rather than volatile portfolio flows and also greater FDI flows which are much needed for the financial and economic development of the SADC countries. We also need to consolidate and reduce the number of exchanges with the view to improve market capitalization, liquidity, market infrastructure, governance amongst others but most importantly to increase the visibility, robustness and reputation of SADC stock markets at the international level.

  7. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaotao; Ping, Jing; Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China's stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed.

  8. Dataset for petroleum based stock markets and GAUSS codes for SAMEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed A.A. Khalifa

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article includes a unique data set of a balanced daily (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday for oil and natural gas volatility and the oil rich economies’ stock markets for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Oman, using daily data over the period spanning Oct. 18, 2006–July 30, 2015. Additionally, we have included unique GAUSS codes for estimating the spillover asymmetric multiplicative error model (SAMEM with application to Petroleum-Based Stock Market. The data, the model and the codes have many applications in business and social science.

  9. Dataset for petroleum based stock markets and GAUSS codes for SAMEM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalifa, Ahmed A A; Bertuccelli, Pietro; Otranto, Edoardo

    2017-02-01

    This article includes a unique data set of a balanced daily (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) for oil and natural gas volatility and the oil rich economies' stock markets for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Oman, using daily data over the period spanning Oct. 18, 2006-July 30, 2015. Additionally, we have included unique GAUSS codes for estimating the spillover asymmetric multiplicative error model (SAMEM) with application to Petroleum-Based Stock Market. The data, the model and the codes have many applications in business and social science.

  10. 26 CFR 1.1296-2 - Definition of marketable stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... means— (1) Passive foreign investment company (PFIC) stock that is regularly traded, as defined in... section, a class of stock that is traded on one or more qualified exchanges or other markets, as defined... (B) The rules of the exchange effectively promote active trading of listed stocks. (2) Exchange with...

  11. The cross-correlation analysis of multi property of stock markets based on MM-DFA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yujun; Li, Jianping; Yang, Yimei

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we propose a new method called DH-MXA based on distribution histograms of Hurst surface and multiscale multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The method allows us to investigate the cross-correlation characteristics among multiple properties of different stock time series. It may provide a new way of measuring the nonlinearity of several signals. It also can provide a more stable and faithful description of cross-correlation of multiple properties of stocks. The DH-MXA helps us to present much richer information than multifractal detrented cross-correlation analysis and allows us to assess many universal and subtle cross-correlation characteristics of stock markets. We show DH-MXA by selecting four artificial data sets and five properties of four stock time series from different countries. The results show that our proposed method can be adapted to investigate the cross-correlation of stock markets. In general, the American stock markets are more mature and less volatile than the Chinese stock markets.

  12. The Australian stock market development: Prospects and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheilla Nyasha

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the origin and development of the Australian stock market. The country has three major stock exchanges, namely: the Australian Securities Exchange Group, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Stock Exchange. These stock exchanges were born out of a string of stock exchanges that merged over time. Stock-market reforms have been implemented since the period of deregulation, during the 1980s; and the Exchanges responded largely positively to these reforms. As a result of the reforms, the Australian stock market has developed in terms of the number of listed companies, the market capitalisation, the total value of stocks traded, and the turnover ratio. Although the stock market in Australia has developed remarkably over the years, and was spared by the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, it still faces some challenges. These include the increased economic uncertainty overseas, the downtrend in global financial markets, and the restrained consumer confidence in Australia.

  13. Sign realized jump risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China's stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun

    2017-01-01

    Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk.

  14. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts. Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes. (author)

  15. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania, E-mail: jamrania2@yahoo.f [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia); Aloui, Chaker, E-mail: chaker.aloui@fsegt.rnu.t [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  16. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

    2010-01-01

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  17. Dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.

  18. determinants of stock market development in nigeria using error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    impact the stock market; more domestic firms should be encouraged to enlist in the market and .... The result shows that economic growth, financial liberalization polices, and foreign .... inflation and exchange rate (dollar-naira rate) following.

  19. The Efficiency Of Ukraine’s Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilya Batroshyna

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of the efficiency of Ukraine’s stock market based on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH which assumes that the price of a financial instrument completely reflects all the information about a given asset. Depending on the variety of information, weak, semi-strong and strong forms of market efficiency are applied The testing of market efficiency is based on verifying the hypothesis against actual statistical data. The study uses four statistical methods. The values of the stock index are used as source data, since the index can be interpreted as a hypothetical security (share, the price of which fluctuates all the time. This article demonstrates that Ukraine’s stock market on the whole is a weak form of market efficiency. It explains the specific strategies for a market with a weak form of efficiency and offers recommendations on the continued development of Ukraine’s stock market.

  20. Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

    2016-11-01

    Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

  1. Statistics of extreme events in Chinese stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Gan-Hua; Qiu Lu; Li Xin-Li; Yang Yue; Yang Hui-Jie; Jiang Yan; Stephen Mutua

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the impact of financial factors on daily volume recurrent time intervals in the developing Chinese stock markets. The tails of probability distribution functions (PDFs) of volume recurrent intervals behave as a power-law, and the scaling exponent decreases with the increase of stock lifetime, which are similar to those in the US stock markets, and they are typical representatives of developed markets. The difference is that the power-law exponent values remain almost the same with the changes of market capitalization, mean volume, and mean trading value, respectively. These findings enrich the results for event statistics for financial markets. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  2. Stock Market Overreaction and Trading Volume: Evidence from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Ruhani Ali; Zamri Ahmad; Shangkari V. Anusakumar

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the stock market overreaction in Bursa Malaysia from January 2000 to October 2010 using weekly data. We find that winner portfolios tend to have negative returns whereas loser portfolios have positive returns for various holding periods from 1 to 52 weeks. Loser stocks experience more persistent and stronger return reversals than winner stocks. The evidence implies that a lower level of overreaction exists for winner stocks. Overall, a loser-winner portfolio yields highly signi...

  3. The reaction of stock market returns to anticipated unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Taamouti, Abderrahim; Gonzalo Muñoz, Jesús

    2012-01-01

    We empirically investigate the short-run impact of anticipated and unanticipated unemployment rates on stock prices. We particularly examine the nonlinearity in stock market's reaction to unemployment rate and study the effect at each individual point (quantile) of stock return distribution. Using nonparametric Granger causality and quantile regression based tests, we find that, contrary to the general findings in the literature, only anticipated unemployment rate has a strong impact on stock...

  4. Investment Risk in the Context of Price Changes on the Real Estate and Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolski Rafał

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The residential real estate market is thought to show a tendency for wide fluctuations in prices, as a result of which price bubbles appear. This element of risk has a direct bearing on investors interested in speculation and those seeking to meet their housing needs. Wide fluctuations in the values of real estate affect the investors’ financial situation in many ways, by determining the possibility of meeting one’s housing needs, reducing or sometimes raising creditworthiness, and by increasing investment risk measured by volatility. Omitting the obvious social dimension of the residential real estate market and concentrating on its financial aspects, the author of the article analyses to what degree wide swings in prices can be recognized as specific to this market. To this end, the volatility of prices in the stock market and in the secondary housing market in Poland is compared. An analysis is performed to establish which of them has higher average volatility measures or rates of return, i.e. which of them is more profitable or secure for investors. Statistical tests are used to find out whether average rates of return or measures of risk are equal or different between the two markets. The results of the research show that the secondary housing market and the stock market differ concerning cumulative average rates of return and standard deviations. In the first of them, they are respectively higher and lower.

  5. Research on the fractal structure in the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Xin-tian; Huang, Xiao-yuan; Sha, Yan-li

    2004-02-01

    Applying fractal theory, this paper probes and discusses self-similarity and scale invariance of the Chinese stock market. It analyses three kinds of scale indexes, i.e., autocorrelation index, Hurst index and the scale index on the basis of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithm and promotes DFA into a recursive algorithm. Using the three kinds of scale indexes, we conduct empirical research on the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The results indicate that the rate of returns of the two stock markets does not obey the normal distribution. A correlation exists between the stock price indexes over time scales. The stock price indexes exhibit fractal time series. It indicates that the policy guide hidden at the back influences the characteristic of the Chinese stock market.

  6. The Warsaw Stock Exchange: A Test of Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Barry Gordon; Libby Rittenberg

    1995-01-01

    This paper analyzes the behavior of the Warsaw Stock Exchange in light of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and alternative models of market inefficiency. Following a brief history of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and a discussion of EMH and the Shiller (1991) critique, the Polish stock market is examined in terms of the extent to which the assumptions of EMH are met and in terms of the actual behavior of stock prices for the period of 1 June 1993 to 27 July 1994. The analysis suggests that E...

  7. Persistent collective trend in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

    2010-12-01

    Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

  8. Derivative Market: An Integral Part Of The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Kosmas Njanike

    2010-01-01

    The study assesses the need for a derivative market as an integral of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. It also aims to evaluate the feasibility of establishing a derivative market as an essential element of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. The research identifies factors that need to be addressed to facilitate such a market. Views of various fund managers, financial analysts and dealers drawn from asset management firms were used. Changes in market trends are influenced by hyper inflation and acute financial...

  9. —The Stock Market's Pricing of Customer Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Ittner; David Larcker; Daniel Taylor

    2009-01-01

    A number of recent marketing studies examine the stock market's response to the release of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) scores. The broad purpose of these studies is to investigate the stock market's valuation of customer satisfaction. However, a key focus is on whether customer satisfaction information predicts long-run returns. We provide evidence on the market's pricing of ACSI information using a more comprehensive set of well-established tests from the accounting and finan...

  10. Measuring liquidity on stock market: impact on liquidity ratio

    OpenAIRE

    Siniša Bogdan; Suzana Bareša; Saša Ivanović

    2012-01-01

    The purpose – It is important to emphasize that liquidity on Croatian stock market is low, the purpose of this paper is to test empirically and find out which variables make crucial role in decision making process of investing in stocks. Design – This paper explores the impact of various liquidity variables on liquidity ratio since it is still insufficiently researched topic. Methodology –This research uses secondary and primary data available from Croatian stock market. Considering pri...

  11. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  12. Aggregate Stock Market Illiquidity and Bond Risk Premia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.E. Bouwman (Kees); E. Sojli (Elvira); W.W. Tham (Wing Wah)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractWe assess the effect of aggregate stock market illiquidity on U.S. Treasury bond risk premia. We find that the stock market illiquidity variable adds to the well established Cochrane-Piazzesi and Ludvigson-Ng factors. It explains 10%, 9%, 7%, and 7% of the one-year-ahead variation in the

  13. Stock Market Reactions to Fiscal Policy Shocks: Empirical Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study sets out to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examines if shocks in government expenditure and government debt affects stock market performance. The period of the study is from 1981-2012. Following the VAR estimates, the variance ...

  14. The Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumer Behaviour in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The stock market is a common feature of a modern economy as it promotes the growth and development of the economy. This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on consumer behavior and the economy, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical ...

  15. Do economic policy decisions affect stock market development in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Efficient Market Hypothesis proposes that macroeconomic policy actions do not influence stock market development but the Tobin's q theory argues otherwise. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policy on the development of the Ghana Stock ...

  16. On the Feed-back Mechanism of Chinese Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shu Quan; Ito, Takao; Zhang, Jianbo

    Feed-back models in the stock markets research imply an adjustment process toward investors' expectation for current information and past experiences. Error-correction and cointegration are often used to evaluate the long-run relation. The Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis, which had ignored the effect of the accumulation of information, cannot explain some anomalies such as bubbles and partial predictability in the stock markets. In order to investigate the feed-back mechanism and to determine an effective model, we use daily data of the stock index of two Chinese stock markets with the expectational model, which is one kind of geometric lag models. Tests and estimations of error-correction show that long-run equilibrium seems to be seldom achieved in Chinese stock markets. Our result clearly shows the common coefficient of expectations and fourth-order autoregressive disturbance exist in the two Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, we find the same coefficient of expectations has an autoregressive effect on disturbances in the two Chinese stock markets. Therefore the presence of such feed-back is also supported in Chinese stock markets.

  17. Randomly modulated periodicity in the US stock market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinich, Melvin J. [Applied Research Laboratories, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78713-8029 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta., T2N 1N4 (Canada)], E-mail: Serletis@ucalgary.ca

    2008-05-15

    This paper extends the work in Serletis and Shintani [Serletis A, Shintani M. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2003;17:449-454], Elder and Serletis [Elder J, Serletis A. On fractional integrating dynamics in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals [forthcoming, 2007

  18. Stock Market Reactions To Fiscal Policy Shocks: Empirical Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study sets out to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on stock market performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the study examines if shocks in government expenditure and government debt affects stock market performance. The period of the study is from 1981-2012. Following the VAR estimates, the variance ...

  19. Randomly modulated periodicity in the US stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinich, Melvin J.; Serletis, Apostolos

    2008-01-01

    This paper extends the work in Serletis and Shintani [Serletis A, Shintani M. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2003;17:449-454], Elder and Serletis [Elder J, Serletis A. On fractional integrating dynamics in the US stock market. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals [forthcoming, 2007

  20. An intense Nigerian stock exchange market prediction using logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a continuation of our research work on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSEM) uncertainties, In our previous work (Magaji et al, 2013) we presented the Naive Bayes and SVM-SMO algorithms as a tools for predicting the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market; subsequently we used the same transformed data ...

  1. Volatility Discovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Scherrer, Cristina; Papailias, Fotis

    The price discovery literature investigates how homogenous securities traded on different markets incorporate information into prices. We take this literature one step further and investigate how these markets contribute to stochastic volatility (volatility discovery). We formally show...... that the realized measures from homogenous securities share a fractional stochastic trend, which is a combination of the price and volatility discovery measures. Furthermore, we show that volatility discovery is associated with the way that market participants process information arrival (market sensitivity......). Finally, we compute volatility discovery for 30 actively traded stocks in the U.S. and report that Nyse and Arca dominate Nasdaq....

  2. Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

  3. Housing market volatility in the OECD area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    2014-01-01

    Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash flow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news over the period 1970-2011. For the jajority of countries news about future returns is the main driver, and both real interest rates and risk-premia play...... an important role in accounting for housing market volatility. Bivariate cross-country correlations and principal components analyses indicate that part of the return movements have a common factor among the majority of countries. We explain the results in terms of global changes in credit constraints...

  4. Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Tan

    Full Text Available A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

  5. Exploring Market State and Stock Interactions on the Minute Timescale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lei; Chen, Jun-Jie; Zheng, Bo; Ouyang, Fang-Yan

    2016-01-01

    A stock market is a non-stationary complex system. The stock interactions are important for understanding the state of the market. However, our knowledge on the stock interactions on the minute timescale is limited. Here we apply the random matrix theory and methods in complex networks to study the stock interactions and sector interactions. Further, we construct a new kind of cross-correlation matrix to investigate the correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes within one trading day. Based on 50 million minute-to-minute price data in the Shanghai stock market, we discover that the market states in the morning and afternoon are significantly different. The differences mainly exist in three aspects, i.e. the co-movement of stock prices, interactions of sectors and correlation between the stock interactions at different minutes. In the afternoon, the component stocks of sectors are more robust and the structure of sectors is firmer. Therefore, the market state in the afternoon is more stable. Furthermore, we reveal that the information of the sector interactions can indicate the financial crisis in the market, and the indicator based on the empirical data in the afternoon is more effective.

  6. Stock Market and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erasmus L Owusu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between stock market evolution and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL-bounds testing approach and a combined stock market indicators index to examine the relationship. The paper finds that, in the long run, stock markets have no positive and at best mixed effect on economic growth in Nigeria. This finding supports the numerous past studies, which have reported negative/mixed or inconclusive results on the effects of stock markets on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that, there is the need for increasing financial deepening and the removal of bottlenecks in the financial sectors of the economy by providing further public and institutional education on the value of stock markets for economic development.

  7. OIL PRICES AND THE KUWAITI AND THE SAUDI STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samih Antoine Azar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.

  8. Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasman Tuyon

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides historical, theoretical, and empirical syntheses in understanding the rationality of investors, stock prices, and stock market efficiency behaviour in the theoretical lenses of behavioural finance paradigm. The inquiry is guided by multidisciplinary behavioural-related theories. The analyses employed a long span of Bursa Malaysia stock market data from 1977 to 2014 along the different phases of economic development and market states. The tests confirmed the presence of asymmetric dynamic behaviour of prices predictability as well as risk and return relationships across different market states, risk states and quantiles data segments. The efficiency tests show trends of an adaptive pattern of weak market efficiency across various economic phases and market states. Collectively, these evidences lend support to bounded-adaptive rational of investors' behaviour, dynamic stock price behaviour, and accordingly forming bounded-adaptive market efficiency.

  9. Moon Effect on Paciic Basin Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rayenda Khresna Brahman

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This is an empirical study on the inluences of moon on seven stock markets, which are Indonesia, Malaysia, United Kingdom, United States, Philippines, Japan, and Thailand. The period is from January 1999 until December 2009 in daily basis. This study investigates the relationship  between  moon  phase  and  market  returns.  We  divided  moon  phases  into  new moon  and  full  moon.  While  literature  mention  the  relationship  between  moon  phase  and market returns, our research reject the null hypothesis in regression analysis. However, the descriptive  catches  the  indication  and  conirmed  previous  research.  It  also  proposes  that the market is still rational and not moon-mood inluenced. This result is not contending the EMH theorem. Further research is needed in term of investigating the relationship between psychology  factors  (heuristic  bias,  information  ignorance,  and  other  factors  and  investor behavior. The effect of moon on certain anomalies has to examine speciically. ";} // -->activate javascript

  10. The price of correlation risk:evidence from Chinese stock market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yiwen Deng; Chen Liu; Zhenlong Zheng

    2014-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to study how the market correlation changes in Chinese stock market and how the market correlation affects stock returns.Design/methodology/approach-The authors first examine the relationship between the market correlation and the market return.Then,the authors run formal multiple regressions to see whether correlation risk is priced in security returns.Findings-The authors find that market correlation increases when the market index falls down.Though market correlation risk is partly influenced by macroeconomic shocks,volatility risk,liquidity risk and higher moment risk,market correlation contains unique information that measures the benefit investors gain from diversification strategies.The market correlation risk is negatively priced.This conclusion remains valid even if the authors have considered the influence of other risk factors and the impact of conditional information.Research limitations/implications-Subjected to the limited history of the Chinese stock market,the authors cannot use more accurate and specific empirical methodology to fulfill the empirical research.And this renders further study.Originality/value-This research provides empirical evidence in a new data sample and it sheds lights on correlation strategies for institutional investors in China.

  11. Stock market in Ukraine: state and prospects of development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnova Iryna V.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to analysis of the topical problem of detection of specific features of functioning and problem of development of the stock market of Ukraine and also justification of directions of increase of its liquidity and efficiency. It analyses main tendencies and regularities of development of the stock market in the context of institutional, instrumental and infrastructural components. It considers issues of changes of volumes of trade and other parameters of activity of stock exchanges during recent years. It focuses on existing problems on the way of development of the stock market of Ukraine, which interfere with its efficient functioning, in particular, a limited number of liquid and investment attractive financial instruments, high fragmentariness of the exchange and depositary infrastructure, and insufficient legislative regulation of the exchange activity. For solution of problem issues and stimulation of further development of the domestic stock market the article marks expediency of consolidation of stock exchanges, necessity to increase capitalisation, liquidity and transparency of the stock market; further formation and consolidation of the market infrastructure and ensuring its reliable and efficient functioning, and improvement of mechanisms of state regulation, supervision and protection of the rights of investors in the Ukrainian stock market.

  12. ECONOMIC AND ACCOUNTING INFORMATION AND STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona – Florina SĂLIȘTEANU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore and to analyse the relations between financial accounting information and stock market efficiency. As we know, accounting contributes to the efficiency of the stock market by producing primordial information for the investors. On the other side, an efficient market facilitates the role of accounting by providing a reliable estimate of the value of many assets that needs to be evaluated. This article examines the importance of the financial accounting information for the efficiency of stock market, and also analyses whether and how the structure, the characteristics and publication of the information, impacts the prices and transactions volumes.

  13. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  14. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  15. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  16. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    arrival process. On applying our sequential test procedure to the thirty individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the data suggest that it is important to allow for both time-varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects in order to satisfactorily describe the daily stock...

  17. Facebook Drives Behavior of Passive Households in Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siikanen, Milla; Baltakys, Kęstutis; Kanniainen, Juho

    2018-01-01

    on Nokia. We find that the decisions to buy versus sell are associated with Facebook data especially for passive households and for nonprofit organizations. At the same time, it seems that more sophisticated investors—financial and insurance institutions—are behaving independently from Facebook activities.......Recent studies using data on social media and stock markets have mainly focused on predicting stock returns. Instead of predicting stock price movements, we examine the relation between Facebook data and investors’ decision making in stock markets with a unique data on investors’ transactions...

  18. Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

  19. The interdependence of major european stock markets: evidence for Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Καινούργιος, Δημήτριος Φ.; Σαμίτας, Αριστείδης Γ.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides new evidence on the relationship between the Greek "blue chip" stock market and the six relative European markets by applying cointegration tests. The time period examined is 1998 to 2000, which marks the entry of Greece to the European Exchange Rates Mechanism II. The empirical results indicate that the Athens Stock Exchange has no considerable links, except for one case, with any other European developed markets examined. These findings have some significa...

  20. Value Investing in the Stock Market of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo “Gerry” Alfonso Perez

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Value investment and growth investment have attracted a large amount of research in recent decades, but most of this research focuses on the U.S. and Europe. This article covers the Thai stock market which has very different characteristics compared to western markets and even South East Asian countries such as Indonesia or Malaysia. Among South East Asian countries, Thailand has one of the most dynamic capital markets. In order to see if some well-known trends in other markets exist in Thailand the performance of value and growth stocks in the Thai market were analyzed for a period of 17 years using existing style indexes (MSCI as well as creating portfolios using individual stocks. For this entire period, when using the indexes, returns are statistically significant superior for value stocks compared to growth stocks. However, when analyzing the performance of the market in any given calendar year from 1999 to 2016, the results are much more mixed with in fact growth stocks outperforming in several of those years. Interestingly, when building portfolios using criteria such as low P/E or low P/B the results are not statistically different. Suggesting perhaps that the classification into value or growth stocks is more complex than it would appear. One of the common assumptions of value investing is that those stocks outperform over long periods of time. It might well be that in the Thai case one year is not a long enough period for value stocks to outperform. While there have been some clear efforts over recent years to modernize the stock market of Thailand, it remains relatively underdeveloped, particularly when compared to markets such as the U.S. Hence, its behavior regarding value versus growth investment might be rather different.

  1. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huishu Zhang

    Full Text Available Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US stock market is a representative of emerging (developed markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  2. Scaling and predictability in stock markets: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huishu; Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

    2014-01-01

    Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

  3. Financial factor influence on scaling and memory of trading volume in stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Wang, Fengzhong; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H Eugene

    2011-10-01

    We study the daily trading volume volatility of 17,197 stocks in the US stock markets during the period 1989-2008 and analyze the time return intervals τ between volume volatilities above a given threshold q. For different thresholds q, the probability density function P(q)(τ) scales with mean interval 〈τ〉 as P(q)(τ)=〈τ〉(-1)f(τ/〈τ〉), and the tails of the scaling function can be well approximated by a power law f(x)∼x(-γ). We also study the relation between the form of the distribution function P(q)(τ) and several financial factors: stock lifetime, market capitalization, volume, and trading value. We find a systematic tendency of P(q)(τ) associated with these factors, suggesting a multiscaling feature in the volume return intervals. We analyze the conditional probability P(q)(τ|τ(0)) for τ following a certain interval τ(0), and find that P(q)(τ|τ(0)) depends on τ(0) such that immediately following a short (long) return interval a second short (long) return interval tends to occur. We also find indications that there is a long-term correlation in the daily volume volatility. We compare our results to those found earlier for price volatility.

  4. Dependence of Stock Markets with Gold and Bonds under Bullish and Bearish Market States

    OpenAIRE

    Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Raza, Naveed; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ali, Azwadi

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the dependence of gold and benchmark bonds with ten stock markets including five larger developed markets (e.g. USA, UK, Japan, Canada and Germany) and five Eurozone peripheral GIPSI countries (Greece, Ireland, Portuguese, Spain and Ireland) stock markets. We use a novel quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to construct the dependence estimates of the quantiles of gold and bond with the quantiles of stock markets. The QQ approach, recently developed by Sim and Zhou (2015), c...

  5. Leverage effect in financial markets: the retarded volatility model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchaud, J P; Matacz, A; Potters, M

    2001-11-26

    We investigate quantitatively the so-called "leverage effect," which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks this correlation is moderate and decays over 50 days, while for stock indices it is much stronger but decays faster. For individual stocks the magnitude of this correlation has a universal value that can be rationalized in terms of a new "retarded" model which interpolates between a purely additive and a purely multiplicative stochastic process. For stock indices a specific amplification phenomenon seems to be necessary to account for the observed amplitude of the effect.

  6. Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2017-01-01

    Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

  7. Corruption and stock market development: A quantitative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam

    2011-11-01

    Studying the relation between corruption and economic factors and examining its consequences for economic development have attracted many economists and physicists in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the role of stock market development on corruption. Analyzing a data set of corruption and stock market development measures such as market capitalization and total value of share trading for 46 countries around the world for the period 2007-2009, we examine the dependence of the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) on stock market development. Our findings suggest that there exists a power-law dependence between corruption and stock market development. We also observe a negative relation between level of corruption and financial system improvement.

  8. Corruption and Stock Market Development: New Evidence from GCC Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moaz Alsherfawi Aljazaerli

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical relationship between corruption and stock market development has been debated quite extensively in the literature, yet the evidence on the impact of corruption on stock market development remains contradictory and ambiguous. This paper investigates the impact of corruption, as measured by Corruption Perception Index (CPI published by Transparency International, on stock market development focusing exclusively on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC countries with its special characteristics of combining richness with relatively high level of corruption. Results from an estimation of alternative regression models on a panel of six GCC countries over the period 2003–2011, through which CPI is legitimately comparable, confirms a positive impact of corruption on stock market development, where the latter is measured by market capitalization. This is consistent with the view that corruption greases the wheels of economy by expediting transactions and allowing private firms to overcome governmentally imposed inefficiencies.

  9. 17 CFR 240.15g-2 - Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market. 240.15g-2 Section 240.15g-2 Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Section 15(d) of the Act § 240.15g-2 Penny stock disclosure document relating to the penny stock market...

  10. Multiscale Shannon entropy and its application in the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Rongbao

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we perform a multiscale entropy analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index using the Shannon entropy. The stock index shows the characteristic of multi-scale entropy that caused by noise in the market. The entropy is demonstrated to have significant predictive ability for the stock index in both long-term and short-term, and empirical results verify that noise does exist in the market and can affect stock price. It has important implications on market participants such as noise traders.

  11. How Newspaper-Article-Events, Other Stock Market Indices, and the Foreign Currency Rate Affect the Philippine Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Percival S. Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Eugene Fama in his “Efficient Market Hypothesis” introduced the term newspaper-article-event. The aim of this paper is to find out if newspaper-article-events which are presented and discussed in newspaper articles and which could collage to create an atmosphere of investment, together with the indices of other stock markets (treated as other events) and the performance of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar (considered as another event) could affect the closing Philippine Stock Market ...

  12. The Asymmetric Impulse of the Sunshine Effect on Stock Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan-Ming Lee; Kuan-Min Wang

    2010-01-01

    This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to 2007). The data include Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average index to proxy the impact of U.S. stock market on Taiwan’s stock market performanc...

  13. The Random-Walk Hypothesis on the Indian Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Ankita Mishra; Vinod Mishra; Russell Smyth

    2014-01-01

    This study tests the random walk hypothesis for the Indian stock market. Using 19 years of monthly data on six indices from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), this study applies three different unit root tests with two structural breaks to analyse the random walk hypothesis. We find that unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks alone are not able to reject the unit root null; however, a recently developed unit root test that simultaneously accou...

  14. Investor behavior heterogeneity in the French stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Rania Guirat

    2011-01-01

    We estimate in this paper a non probabilistic Markovien model of stock prices with an evolutionary selection of heterogeneous strategies. It is a model proposed by Brock and Hommes (1997, 1998) and improved later by Boswijk and al. (2007). Indeed, the latter propose one of the few estimations considering stock markets data, characterized by an evolutionary selection procedure of heterogeneous strategies. They estimate the model to annual US stock price data from 1871 to 2003. In this paper, w...

  15. THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM THE FIVE SMALL OPEN ASEAN STOCK MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    QAISER MUNIR; KOK SOOK CHING; FUMITAKA FUROUKA; KASIM MANSUR

    2012-01-01

    The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from historical price changes, is satisfied when stock prices are characterized by a random walk (unit root) process. A finding of unit root implies that stock returns cannot be predicted. This paper investigates the stock prices behavior of five ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, for the period from 1990:1...

  16. Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ono, Shigeki

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.

  17. Stock Indices as Generalizing Indicators of the Stock Markets Condition in the European Union Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuba M. V.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine the degree of interdependence of stock markets in separate countries of the European Union, namely: France, Germany, Great Britain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary on the basis of studying the changes in stock indexes, as well as determining the existence of tendencies of approximating the dynamics of the national stock index «PFTS Index» to the corresponding dynamics of stock indexes in surveyed countries. The article analyzes the dynamics of changes in stock indices in the UK (FTSE, Germany (DAX 30, France (CAC 40 and pan-European ones (EURO STOXX 50, as well as changes in stock indices in Poland (WIG 20, Czech Republic (PX, Hungary (BUX. Calculations of the coefficients of pair correlation between changes in stock indices in the studied countries have been performed. The calculation results show a substantial connection between the indicators of changes in stock indices and allow to make a conclusion that in the dynamics of stock indices of national stock markets of the studied EU countries some common trends are observed, moreover, in the behavior of the considered indices common local trends are noticed as well. The author calculated the coefficient of pair correlation between the indicators of changes in the national stock index «PFTS Index» and the stock indices of the «old» and «new» EU countries. The calculations showed that the PFTS Index does not demonstrate a high level of correlation with stock indices of the «old» EU countries and has a tendency of approaching the corresponding dynamics of stock indices of the «new» EU countries.

  18. TÜRKİYE HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI GETİRİ VE OYNAKLIĞINDAKİ UZUN DÖNEM BAĞIMLILIK İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR LONG TERM-DEPENDENCE IN THE RETURN AND VOLATILITY OF TURKISH STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available ÖZ: Çalışma ARFIMA-FIGARCH modelleri yardımıyla Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası getirilerinde ikili uzun hafıza özelliğinin varlığını incelemekte dolayısıyla zayıf formda etkin piyasa hipotezini test etmektedir. Bu amaçla kullanılan veri 2010-2013 dönemi Borsa İstanbul (BIST için günlük hisse senedi kapanış fiyatlarını içermektedir. Öncelikle ortalama ve oynaklıktaki uzun hafızanın varlığı ayrı olarak incelenmiştir. ARFIMA modeli sonuçları BIST getirileri için ortalamada uzun hafıza özelliği gösterirken, getiri oynaklıklarındaki uzun hafızanın varlığı için FIGARCH modeli de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar vermiştir. İkinci olarak, ortalama ve oynaklıktaki birlikte uzun hafıza özelliği ARFIMA-FIGARCH modeli ile değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ortalamada uzun hafızanın varlığına dair bir bulgu elde edilemezken, oynaklığın öngörülebilir bir yapı gösterdiği Türkiye borsası etkin bir piyasa değildir. Anahtar Kelimeler: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, İkili Uzun Hafıza, Oynaklık, Yapısal Kırılma, Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi. ABSTRACT: The study examines presence of dual long memory property in returns of Turkish Stock Market by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH model and, tests Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis. The data set consists of daily closing prices for the period 2010 to 2013 of Istanbul Stock Exchange. Firstly, long memory property in return and volatility has been investigated separately. FIGARCH model indicates statistically significant findings while the results of ARFIMA model display long memory dynamics in returns of BIST. Secondly, long memory in return and volatility has been evaluated simultaneously by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. Consequently, Turkish Stock Market is not Efficient Market because volatility shows forecastable structure while there have not been obtained any finding about presence of long memory in return. Keywords: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, Dual Long Memory

  19. RELATIONSHIP DERIVATIVES FINANCIAL MARKETS, MONEY AND STOCK MARKETS AS A SUBSYSTEM OF FINANCIAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia Yelnikova

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Under conditions of intensive strengthening of globalization of world financial markets and deepening of the crisis, the main source of which are financial markets, financial derivatives market is rapidly developing. In such circumstances, we observe very active growing demand for tools, the main purpose of which is to reduce the financial risk – derivatives. Outlined trend has also involved Ukraine. In this connection, there is an objective need to develop estimate the interconnection of the money and stock markets and derivatives market. It should be kept in mind that achieving the outlined goal is possible only under condition of the full understanding of the scientific and methodological principles of the development of these markets. Purpose is to estimate the interconnection of the money and stock markets and derivatives market by building a mathematical model of system of structural equations that will promote the compilation of scientifically based program of derivatives market. Methodology. By using methods of economic-mathematical modelling were estimated the degree of influence of studied markets factors on financial derivatives market development and by changing this or that factor were predicted future trends of its operations. Results of the survey showed the current state and problems of derivatives market functioning. At the same time, our study allowed us to talk, that factors of the money and stock markets have a different impact on the derivatives market. So, the majority of money market factors have a reverse influence on the development of derivatives market. Instead, the stock market has a direct influence. Practical implications. The proposed scientific and methodical approach to evaluating the impact of factors on the derivatives market allows: influenced by different factors; to conduct a qualitative interpretation of the quantitative changes in the level of market development; to form a complete system of state

  20. Network structure detection and analysis of Shanghai stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Wu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In order to investigate community structure of the component stocks of SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange 180-index, a stock correlation network is built to find the intra-community and inter-community relationship. Design/methodology/approach: The stock correlation network is built taking the vertices as stocks and edges as correlation coefficients of logarithm returns of stock price. It is built as undirected weighted at first. GN algorithm is selected to detect community structure after transferring the network into un-weighted with different thresholds. Findings: The result of the network community structure analysis shows that the stock market has obvious industrial characteristics. Most of the stocks in the same industry or in the same supply chain are assigned to the same community. The correlation of the internal stock prices’ fluctuation is closer than in different communities. The result of community structure detection also reflects correlations among different industries. Originality/value: Based on the analysis of the community structure in Shanghai stock market, the result reflects some industrial characteristics, which has reference value to relationship among industries or sub-sectors of listed companies.

  1. Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusdhianto Setiawan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.

  2. An Analysis of Manipulation Strategies in Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Rasim Ozcan

    2012-01-01

    Manipulative transactions, which affect both the supply and demand side of the markets, have been studied by academic circles and it was concluded that manipulation exerts negative impact on markets. A market with manipulation is considered as less trustworthy and credible compared to a market without manipulation, which in turn, affects demand. Manipulations affecting both the supply and demand should be closely monitored by stock market investors as well as legislative, executive, and regul...

  3. The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhi; Shu, Tengjia; Yin, Libo

    2018-05-01

    Inspired by Herskovic et al. (2016), we investigate the pricing effect of the firm-level common idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) in China's A-Share market. Return tests indicate that lower CIV risk loadings bring higher returns significantly, while the pricing function of market volatility (MV) is inconsistent. Strategy that goes long the highest CIV-beta quintile and short the lowest CIV-beta quintile brings an annualized average return of 5%-7%. Our findings supplement Herskovic et al. (2016) by confirming a significantly negative relationship between CIV and stock returns in a developing market.

  4. Essays on investing in stock and bond markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis consists of three chapters about investing in stock and bond markets. The first chapter studies the financial market’s response to economic news as function of the economic environment by attributing the daily stock returns to its main drivers. The second chapter studies the cross

  5. DEA investment strategy in the Brazilian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Newton da Costa, Jr.; Marcus Lima; Edgar Lanzer; Ana Lopes

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-period investment strategy using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the Brazilian stock market. Results show that the returns based on the DEA strategy were superior to the returns of a Brazilian stock index in most of the 22 quarters analyzed, presenting a significant Jensen's alpha.

  6. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, B.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high

  7. RE-EXAMINING STOCK MARKET INTEGRATION AMONG BRICS COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berzanna Seydou Ouattara

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to contribute to the international investment decision making process among the BRICS countries and to the development or changes of policies in response to the dynamics in these countries. The background is important for international investors seeking diversification benefits abroad and for policy makers reacting to the developments in the aforementioned economies. Thus, the context of this paper is directed to the examination of the stock market interaction among the BRICS countries. The objective of this research paper is to analyze the existence of the short-term linkages and long-term cointegration among the BRICS markets. Augmented Dicker-Fuller (ADF and Philips-Perron tests (PP are used to analyze stationarity among the selected variables. The research applies the correlation test on the stock markets returns to investigate the degree of freedom existing among the markets. The long run and the short run are also investigated using Johansen cointegration test while the Pairwise Granger Causality and the Wald tests are applied to assess the direction of the causality between the stock market indices. The study also extends the investigation by employing the impulse response function and variance decomposition to evaluate the reaction of each stock to a shock from other stock indices. The quarterly data consisted of fifteen years from 2000 to 2015 and are exclusively composed of stock market index of selected countries. One of the key findings of the research is that the Chinese stock markets are mostly independent from other BRICS markets, implying diversification benefits for the international investors both in the short and the long run. Another important finding is that the BRICS stock markets are not cointegrated in the long run, thus, being a favorable destination for the long-term investments.

  8. Stock Market Capitalisation and Interest Rate in Nigeria: A Time ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obviously for the Nigerian capital market to enhance economic growth and development and compare favourably with those of developed market economies, investors will need to be abreast with the happenings and great benefits of the stock market. In this case a lot depends on considerable control of the interest rate, the ...

  9. High-frequency Research of Stock Index Futures-spot Market Volatility Spillover---Wavelet Noise Reduction based on the EEMD%高频股指期现货市场波动溢出效应的研究--基于EEMD的小波降噪

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱莉

    2015-01-01

    It is always a hotspot to use high-frequent data as the proof for the Volatility Spillover Effect in the spot and future markets in both theoretical and practical fields, but the high-frequent data is susceptible to the pollution of noise. Based on the disa-dvantage of high-frequent data, there are two methods come out with: first, verifying the validity, is to create a new method to reduce noise, like EEMD + Wavelet Soft Threshold Noise Reduction Method; second is applying the high-frequent data, which has already acc-epted the Noise Reduction, to the study of BEK-GARCH Model for the Volatility Spillover Effect. Both spot and future markets contain larger Volatility Agglomeration Effects , after verifying that the reductions of noise influence from microstructure. The spot markets in China influence on the future markets in short and long terms, but future markets only have effects on the volatility of spot markets in short term. Also, the influence of the future markets to spot markets is greater than that of the spot markets on the futures markets in short term. Overall, the impact of spot markets to futures markets from stock index in China is sustainable.%利用高频数据进行股指期现货市场波动溢出的研究一直是理论界和实务界研究的热点,但是高频数据易受噪音污染,基于此,文章在这些方面做了一些研究:一是提出新的降噪方法, EEMD+小波软阈值降噪法,并验证了其有效性。二是把降噪后高频数据应用于BEKK-GARCH模型研究波动溢出。经验证,降低微观结构噪音影响后,两个市场均存在较大的波动率聚集效应,我国现货市场的冲击在短期、长期均会对期货市场产生影响,期货则仅在短期对现货市场波动有影响,但短期内期货市场对现货市场的影响大于现货对期货市场的影响。总体上看,我国股指现货市场对期货市场的影响较持久。

  10. Determinants Of Equity Prices In The Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Usman Javaid

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of market variables on the movement stock prices in Pakistan. Asset pricing is considered as efficient if the asset prices reflect all available market information. This study examined the extent to which some "information factors" or market indices affect the stock price. A simple regression model has been used to develop a relation between the variables (stock prices, earnings per share, gross domestic product, dividend, inflation and KIBOR after testing for multi-collinearity among the independent variables. All the variables have shown positive correlation with stock prices with some exceptions of GDP and inflation. This study has enriched the existing literature while it would help policy makers who are interested in deploying instruments of monetary policy and other economic indices for the growth of the capital market.

  11. What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

  12. Dynamic Stock Market Participation of Households with Heterogeneous Participation Costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers’ decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers’ investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 5% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers’ life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers’ life cycle....

  13. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Nigerian Stock Market | Onuoha ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Nigerian Stock Market. ... that the global financial crisis measured by currency crisis, credit crisis, liquidity crisis, ... relevant regulatory authorities should use the financial stress index (FSI) as proposed by ...

  14. Social Interaction and Stock Market Participation: Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Current research on the impact of social interaction on the stock market participation only involves the traditional way of social interaction, and this paper further investigates the modern social interaction effects on the stock market participation and its activeness. The sample containing 150 Chinese counties is selected, and we apply grouping analysis and linear regression to conclude that social interaction has positive influence on the stock market participation and its activeness. Both traditional and modern social interaction ways affect the stock market participation and its activeness to the similar extent, so modern social interaction is of the same importance. Controlling for the respondents’ age, wealth, and education level, the above conclusion still holds.

  15. Network formation in a multi-asset artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei; Wang, Chao

    2018-04-01

    A multi-asset artificial stock market is developed. In the market, stocks are assigned to a number of sectors and traded by heterogeneous investors. The mechanism of continuous double auction is employed to clear order book and form daily closed prices. Simulation results of prices at the sector level show an intra-sector similarity and inter-sector distinctiveness, and returns of individual stocks have stylized facts that are ubiquitous in the real-world stock market. We find that the market risk factor has critical impact on both network topology transition and connection formation, and that sector risk factors account for the formation of intra-sector links and sector-based local interaction. In addition, the number of community in threshold-based networks is correlated negatively and positively with the value of correlation coefficients and the ratio of intra-sector links, which are respectively determined by intensity of sector risk factors and the number of sectors.

  16. Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; van Oijen, P.H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates whether privatisation in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatisation programme represents a major political test which gradually resolves uncertainty

  17. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Nigerian Stock Market

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    Key words: Global financial crisis, Nigerian stock market, currency crisis, ... drop in all economic indices over a relatively short period of time leading to corporate .... magnitude and many countries with sound fundamentals also plunged into a ...

  18. Foreign ownership in Vietnam stock markets - an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Vo, Xuan Vinh

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates foreign ownership in the Vietnam stock market from 2007 to 2009 employing a rich and detailed dataset. From the perspective of informational asymmetry, the paper examines the relationship between the foreign ownership level and attributes of Vietnamese listed firm in Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange. The findings of the paper indicate that foreign investors have preference for large firms, firms with high book-to-market ratio and firms with low leverage. Foreign investo...

  19. International stock market integration: Central and South Eastern Europe compared

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman; Petrovski, D.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 1 (2013), s. 81-91 ISSN 0939-3625 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stock markets * South Eastern Europe Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/horvath-international stock market integration central and south eastern europe compared.pdf

  20. International Stock Market Comovements: What Happened during the Financial Crisis?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman; Poldauf, P.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 1 (2012), s. 1-21 ISSN 1524-5861 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stock market comovements * financial crisis * GARCH Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/horvath-international stock market comovements what happened during the financial crisis .pdf

  1. Did pension plan accounting contribute to a stock market bubble?

    OpenAIRE

    Julia Lynn Coronado; Steven A. Sharpe

    2003-01-01

    During the 1990s, the asset portfolios of defined-benefit (DB) pension plans ballooned with the booming stock market. Due to current accounting guidelines, the robust growth in pension assets resulted in a stealthy but substantial boost to the profits of sponsoring corporations. This study assesses the extent to which equity investors were fooled by pension accounting. First, we test whether stock prices reflected the fair market value of sponsoring firms' net pension assets reported in footn...

  2. Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Don U.A. Galagedera; Roland G. Shami

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return an...

  3. An econometric model of the South African stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Moolman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

  4. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

  5. Style investing: behavioral explanations of stock market anomalies

    OpenAIRE

    Wouters, T.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract PhD-project The aim of this thesis is to explore the mechanisms of style investing. My project consists of two parts, each with an individual goal: 1. The first objective will be to analyze the implications of the dynamics of value and growth strategies for the US stock market. 2. The second objective will be to find explanations for stock returns by introducing the effects of collective preferences of investors into the dynamics of stock markets. We introduce style popularity as an ...

  6. The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquering, W.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954-1998, we

  7. An Alternative Estimation of Market Volatility based on Fuzzy Transform

    OpenAIRE

    Troiano, Luigi; Villa, Elena Mejuto; Kriplani, Pravesh

    2017-01-01

    Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the application of fuzzy transform and its inverse as an alternative measure of volatility. The measure obtained is compatible with the definition of risk measure given by Luce. A comparison with standard definition is performed by considering the NIFTY 50 stock...

  8. Policy Impact on the Chinese Stock Market: From the 1994 Bailout Policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang-Chao Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available From the 1994 bailout policies to the 2015 Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the policy impact on the Chinese stock market has changed over time. By May 2015, global investors can directly invest in a more legalized and normalized Chinese stock market, whereas they are still concerned about the policy-oriented market and its attendant risks. In this study, we employ the family of GARCH models to investigate the structural changes in risks with the implementation of a series of policies. Our results show that although many policies improve or stabilize the stock market, certain policies lead to substantial volatility. Among them, macro-control policies and transaction cost adjustments are a double-edged sword, which should be used with caution. Furthermore, with opening-up policies being launched recently, the Chinese stock market has entered a new stage in which it affects international capital markets. However, the increased risks, which may result in a sharp turnaround, cause worry.

  9. Bitcoin Market Volatility Analysis Using Grand Canonical Minority Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Ortisi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose to use the Grand Canonical Minority Game (GCMG, a highly simplified financial market model as a model of bitcoin market to show how the lack of an income for “miners”, similar to yield earned by bond holders, could be a structural reason for high volatility of bitcoin price in a reference currency. Coherently with present analysis, the introduction of future contracts on bitcoin would have the effect of reducing the overall market volatility.

  10. Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-01-01

    The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She–Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets. (paper)

  11. The Impulsive Stock Market of Bangladesh and the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saif Hossain

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates whether the stock market of Bangladesh can be related with the last world recession. The Pearson’s correlation analysis model was used to find the correlation between the Dhaka Stock Exchange General index and real GDP growth rate of the world. The findings show that no statistically significant correlation exists between the two variables inferring that the stock market of Bangladesh was not significantly affected by ‘the great recession’ (2007-2009. The findings of this study are inconsistent with the results of previous studies which claimed that the Bangladesh stock market shares a common stochastic trend with the capital market of USA. The results of this study may be explained mainly by domestic factors such as low market capitalization, market inefficiency, strict monitoring and control by the Security and Exchange Commission and low international participation in the stock market of Bangladesh. All these factors, along with the inconsistency with past results, instigate further investigation.

  12. Modeling IPO In Dubai Stock Market: Booming Or Tumbling Return?

    OpenAIRE

    Viviane Y. Naïmy

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of IPO on Dubai Stock Market. We measured through detailed distribution analysis and hypothesis testing the Dubai markets reaction to IPO. We demonstrated that IPO had downbeat impact on Dubai market performance in terms of return as revealed by the rejection of the alternative hypothesis. The independency between market return and IPO was partially attributed to irrational valuations at the time of IPO.

  13. Multiscale Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of STOCK Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yi; Shang, Pengjian

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we employ the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to investigate the cross-correlations between different stock markets. We report the results of cross-correlated behaviors in US, Chinese and European stock markets in period 1997-2012 by using DCCA method. The DCCA shows the cross-correlated behaviors of intra-regional and inter-regional stock markets in the short and long term which display the similarities and differences of cross-correlated behaviors simply and roughly and the persistence of cross-correlated behaviors of fluctuations. Then, because of the limitation and inapplicability of DCCA method, we propose multiscale detrended cross-correlation analysis (MSDCCA) method to avoid "a priori" selecting the ranges of scales over which two coefficients of the classical DCCA method are identified, and employ MSDCCA to reanalyze these cross-correlations to exhibit some important details such as the existence and position of minimum, maximum and bimodal distribution which are lost if the scale structure is described by two coefficients only and essential differences and similarities in the scale structures of cross-correlation of intra-regional and inter-regional markets. More statistical characteristics of cross-correlation obtained by MSDCCA method help us to understand how two different stock markets influence each other and to analyze the influence from thus two inter-regional markets on the cross-correlation in detail, thus we get a richer and more detailed knowledge of the complex evolutions of dynamics of the cross-correlations between stock markets. The application of MSDCCA is important to promote our understanding of the internal mechanisms and structures of financial markets and helps to forecast the stock indices based on our current results demonstrated the cross-correlations between stock indices. We also discuss the MSDCCA methods of secant rolling window with different sizes and, lastly, provide some relevant implications and

  14. INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN JAKARTA STOCK EXCHANGE AND OTHER PACIFIC-BASIN STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noer Azam Achsani

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 International capital markets linkages have been studied since early 90-es.  Most of these studies have mainly focused on the US and other developed markets. There were only a few researches on this topic in the emerging markets.  This paper examines the dynamic linkages among Indonesian and other Pacific-Basin stock markets using correlation analysis, Granger-causality and vector autoregressive (VAR approach. All the methods give generally similar results. Our empirical results indicate a high degree of international co-movement among the stock price indices.  The degree of integration among these markets after Asian Crisis increased substantially in compare to those before Asian Crisis. The results also show that there are close relationships among the geographically and economically closed markets such as ASEAN markets, New Zealand-Australian and also Hong Kong - South Korea.  The pattern of impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid transmission of stock market events. Shocks in the developed markets are immediately transmitted to other markets. Shocks in the emerging markets are also transmitted to other markets, but without such a big effect comparing to those in the developed markets. The Jakarta stock exchange is strongly correlated with other Pacific-Basin markets, especially with ASEAN markets, Hong Kong and Australia.   The strongest foreign effects for the JSX come from Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand. They can explain about 5 – 8% of error variance of the Jakarta Index. In contrast, the JSX index can explain 3 - 5 % of their error variances. 

  15. The stock selection problem: Is the stock selection approach more important than the optimization method? Evidence from the Danish stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Grobys, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    Passive investment strategies basically aim to replicate an underlying benchmark. Thereby, the management usually selects a subset of stocks being employed in the optimization procedure. Apart from the optimization procedure, the stock selection approach determines the stock portfolios' out-of-sample performance. The empirical study here takes into account the Danish stock market from 2000-2010 and gives evidence that stock portfolios including small companies' stocks being estimated via coin...

  16. Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

    2014-09-01

    Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

  17. Stock market reaction to xenophobic violence in an emerging economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins C. Ngwakwe

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an initial evaluation of possible effect of xenophobic violence on the Johannesburg Stock Market. Violence is inimical to economic development as it constraints normal business operations and causes a rebound on the stock market. The paper applied the event trend analysis combined with a statistical t-test of paired sample means in the pre and post-xenophobic period stock performance. Data was drawn from the JSE All Share Index - Capped Indices Performance (J303 - Capi DY for 2008 and 2015, during & after the xenophobic violence of 2008 and 2015. The economic consequences of social instability were substantiated with related literature. The theoretical foundation was inclined on the integrated threat theory and the social contract theory. Findings from the analysis of paired sample t-test showed a significant difference in means of stock performance with P<0.05 within and after the xenophobic period. Furthermore, a t-test of similarity in stock performance chart for periods of xenophobic violence 2008 and 2015 showed no significant difference in stock performance trend – indicating similarity in stock chart between 2008 and 2015 periods of xenophobic violence. The paper recommends the need for further research of a broader scope that will consider many years of xenophobic events or similar violence across countries using multiple stock performance and economic performance indicators.

  18. Dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ren

    Full Text Available The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop before (after the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.

  19. Cascading effect of contagion in Indian stock market: Evidence from reachable stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajan Sruthi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The financial turbulence in a country percolates to another along the trajectories of reachable stocks owned by foreign investors. To indemnify the losses originating from the crisis country, foreign investors dispose of shares in other markets triggering a contagion in an unrelated market. This paper provides empirical evidence for the stock market crisis that spreads globally through investors owning international portfolios, with special reference to the global financial crisis of 2008–09. Using two-step Limited Information Maximum Likelihood estimation and Murphy-Topel variance estimate, the results show that reachability plays a crucial role in the transposal of distress from one country to another, explaining investor-induced contagion in the Indian stock market.

  20. Stock market integration and the speed of information transmission

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Černý, Alexandr

    -, č. 242 (2004), s. 1-25 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK8002119; GA ČR GA402/04/0270 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : stock market integration * market comovement * high-frequency data Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  1. A Price Earnings Index for the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Risager, Ole

    2004-01-01

    Price-earnings ratios are part of the toolkit that is used for assessing the valuation ofindividual firms on the stock market as well as the entire market itself. This paperpresents consistent P/E series for the liquid Danish shares adjusted for share buybacks.The results show that over the period...

  2. The Inefficiency of the Stock Market Equilibrium under Moral Hazard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calcagno, R.; Wagner, W.B.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we study the constrained efficiency of a stock market equilibrium under moral hazard.We extend a standard general equilbrium framework (Magill and Quinzii (1999) and (2002)) to allow for a more general initial ownership distribution.We show that the market allocation is constrained

  3. Are stock market crises contagious? The role of crisis definitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mierau, Jochen O.; Mink, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Financial contagion studies generally examine whether co-movement between markets increases during a crisis. We use a flexible co-movement measure to examine how conclusions of such analyses depend on the sample chosen as the 'crisis'. To this end, we analyse stock market co-movement during the 1997

  4. The Impact of Earthquakes on the Domestic Stock Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Voorhorst, Yvonne

    How do financial markets respond to the impact of earthquakes? We investigate this for more than 100 earthquakes with fatalities in 21 countries from five continents in the period 1973-2011. Using an event study methodology we conclude that there are significant negative effects on stock market

  5. Stocks for the long run? : Evidence from emerging markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spierdijk, Laura; Umar, Zaghum

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999-2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local

  6. Legal Protection for Investor in Capital Market Stock Trading

    OpenAIRE

    Sofyan, Tito

    2013-01-01

    Protection for investor is the crucial issue because it has been found many evidence of the misuse of company's resources for extensive period. Moreover, there are also the case of stock lose, case in IPO, short selling, securities fraud, market manipulation, and insider trading. Stock market is abouttrust, if it lose, the market will collpase and it will affect the other sector, mainly economic sector. Undang-UndangNomor 8 Tahun 1995 tentangPasar Modal (UUPM) is one of the legal order to s...

  7. Trade networks evolution under the conditions of stock market globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kopylova Olga Volodymyrivna

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The modern perception of the stock market in terms of information technologies rapid development and under the institutionalists influence has been significantly modified and becomes multifaceted. It was detected that the main function of the market is activated, information asymmetry is minimized and more advanced financial architecture space is formed through trade networks. Formation of the modern trade networks has started on the basis of the old infrastructure, that had the highest tendency to self-organization and adaptation. The proposed architecture of trade networks of the stock market has a very clear vector of subordination – from top to bottom and has a number of positive points.

  8. CORPORATE DIVIDEND POLICY AND SHARE PRICE VOLATILITY:A STUDY OF THE BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Vijayakumar, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The research paper aims to identify the empirical relationship between Corporate Dividend policy in India and share price volatility. Design/Methodology/Approach: A sample of 197 dividend paying companies listed on the Bombay stock exchange (BSE 500) was examined from 2006 to 2010.A panel data approach was applied to identify the relationship between price volatility against dividend yield and dividend payout ratio. Findings: The findings observe a significant relationship be...

  9. Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2008-01-01

    Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719-740] Volatility Impulse Response Function(VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. We observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be an indication of market efficiency. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizon. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that extreme events are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy is based on option prices which themselves depend on the volatility level. (authors)

  10. The Effects of Market Properties on Portfolio Diversification in the Korean and Japanese Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Cheoljun Eom; Jongwon Park; Woo-Sung Jung; Taisei Kaizoji; Yong H. Kim

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we have investigated empirically the effects of market properties on the degree of diversification of investment weights among stocks in a portfolio. The weights of stocks within a portfolio were determined on the basis of Markowitz's portfolio theory. We identified that there was a negative relationship between the influence of market properties and the degree of diversification of the weights among stocks in a portfolio. Furthermore, we noted that the random matrix theory met...

  11. Stock Market Performance and Pension Fund Investment Policy: Rebalancing, Free Float, or Market Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Broeders, D.W.G.A; de Dreu, J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper is the first that examines the impact of stock market performance on the investment policy of pension funds. We find that stock market prices influence the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds in two ways. In the short term, outperformance of equities over bonds and other investment

  12. The impact of foreign investors on the Serbian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakočević Rade

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Frontier markets, such as Serbia, which are at the early stages of development, are characterized by very low level of solvency, absence of corporate management rules and reports to the public, insufficiently developed regulations, as well as significant participation of foreign portfolio investors in the exchange. Those are usually foreign investment funds specialized in risky investments at such markets; they apply the principle of geographic portfolio diversification in their investment policy. At the Belgrade Stock Exchange, foreign investors have been present at the stock market since 2002 and they participated in high volumes in stock buying during the stock market growth in the period from 2002 to 2007, whereas during the crisis at the Serbian capital market from 2008 to 2010 there was a significant increase in foreign investors' participation on the selling side and a withdrawal from the Belgrade Stock Exchange. Such behavior of foreign investors was initially prompted by local factors, but was intensified by the global financial crisis and will be analyzed in this paper.

  13. The impact of leverage on stock returns: an empirical test on the Australian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Thuy Linh, Doan

    2009-01-01

    Asset pricing model is no longer a new topic to theoretical finance but it still maintains researchers’ interest until now. The role of firm characteristics in explaining the stock returns becomes more and more significant in the empirical studies. The Fama French three factor is the most famous model of testing the firm characteristics: size effect and book to market effect on stock returns. However, this model does not include leverage, one of the most important firm characteristics. Starti...

  14. Which global stock indices trigger stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market? Evidence using a bivariate analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Kuan-Min; Lai Hung-Cheng

    2013-01-01

    This paper extends recent investigations into risk contagion effects on stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006 to May 3, 2012 are sourced to empirically validate the contagion effects between stock markets in Vietnam, and China, Japan, Singapore, and the US. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market-related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariate EGARCH model of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients. Using the...

  15. Application of integrated data mining techniques in stock market forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Yin Huang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Stock market is considered too uncertain to be predictable. Many individuals have developed methodologies or models to increase the probability of making a profit in their stock investment. The overall hit rates of these methodologies and models are generally too low to be practical for real-world application. One of the major reasons is the huge fluctuation of the market. Therefore, the current research focuses in the stock forecasting area is to improve the accuracy of stock trading forecast. This paper introduces a system that addresses the particular need. The system integrates various data mining techniques and supports the decision-making for stock trades. The proposed system embeds the top-down trading theory, artificial neural network theory, technical analysis, dynamic time series theory, and Bayesian probability theory. To experimentally examine the trading return of the presented system, two examples are studied. The first uses the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC data-set that covers an investment horizon of 240 trading days from 16 February 2011 to 23 January 2013. Eighty four transactions were made using the proposed approach and the investment return of the portfolio was 54% with an 80.4% hit rate during a 12-month period in which the TSMC stock price increased by 25% (from $NT 78.5 to $NT 101.5. The second example examines the stock data of Evergreen Marine Corporation, an international marine shipping company. Sixty four transactions were made and the investment return of the portfolio was 128% in 12 months. Given the remarkable investment returns in trading the example TSMC and Evergreen stocks, the proposed system demonstrates promising potentials as a viable tool for stock market forecasting.

  16. Fractal profit landscape of the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

  17. Legal insider trading and stock market liquidity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Degryse, Hans; de Jong, Frank; Lefebvre, J.J.G.

    This paper assesses the impact of legal trades by corporate insiders on the liquidity of the firm’s stock. For this purpose, we analyze two liquidity measures and one information asymmetry measure. The analysis allows us to study as well the effect of a change in insider trading regulation, namely

  18. Optimization Stock Portfolio With Mean-Variance and Linear Programming: Case In Indonesia Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yen Sun

    2010-01-01

    It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%). As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor). Therefore, it is i...

  19. Optimization Stock Portfolio With Mean-Variance and Linear Programming: Case In Indonesia Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Sun

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%. As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor. Therefore, it is important to educate domestic investor to involve in the stock exchange. Investing in portfolio of stock is one of the best choices for risk-averse investor (such as Indonesia domestic investor since it offers lower risk for a given level of return. This paper studies the optimization of Indonesian stock portfolio. The data is the historical return of 10 stocks of LQ 45 for 5 time series (January 2004 – December 2008. It will be focus on selecting stocks into a portfolio, setting 10 of stock portfolios using mean variance method combining with the linear programming (solver. Furthermore, based on Efficient Frontier concept and Sharpe measurement, there will be one stock portfolio picked as an optimum Portfolio (Namely Portfolio G. Then, Performance of portfolio G will be evaluated by using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Measurement to show whether the return of Portfolio G exceeds the market return. This paper also illustrates how the stock composition of the Optimum Portfolio (G succeeds to predict the portfolio return in the future (5th January – 3rd April 2009. The result of the study observed that optimization portfolio using Mean-Variance (consistent with Markowitz theory combine with linear programming can be applied into Indonesia stock’s portfolio. All the measurements (Sharpe, Jensen, and Treynor show that the portfolio G is a superior portfolio. It is also been found that the composition (weights stocks of optimum portfolio (G can be used to

  20. News media and the stock market: Assessing mutual relationships : An interdisciplinary multi-method study of financial journalism, news media, emotions, market events and the stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strauß, N.

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation provides insights in explaining the interrelationships between news media and the stock market. First, the results show that first-hand economic news seems to induce stronger, and more immediate stock market reactions than already known public information. Second, public economic

  1. New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

  2. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  3. Quantifying the effect of investors' attention on stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen-Hua Yang

    Full Text Available The investors' attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors' attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI, we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors' attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors' attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100 show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors' attention.

  4. Quantifying the effect of investors' attention on stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti

    2017-01-01

    The investors' attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors' attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors' attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors' attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors' attention.

  5. Quantifying the effect of investors’ attention on stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhen-Hua; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yu, Chang-Rui; Han, Jing-Ti

    2017-01-01

    The investors’ attention has been extensively used to predict the stock market. Different from existing proxies of the investors’ attention, such as the Google trends, Baidu index (BI), we argue the collective attention from the stock trading platforms could reflect the investors’ attention more closely. By calculated the increments of the attention volume for each stock (IAVS) from the stock trading platforms, we investigate the effect of investors’ attention measured by the IAVS on the movement of the stock market. The experimental results for Chinese Securities Index 100 (CSI100) show that the BI is significantly correlated with the returns of CSI100 at 1% significance level only in 2014. However, it should be emphasized that the correlation of the new proposed measure, namely IAVS, is significantly at 1% significance level in 2014 and 2015. It shows that the effect of the measure IAVS on the movement of the stock market is more stable and significant than BI. This study yields important invest implications and better understanding of collective investors’ attention. PMID:28542216

  6. Quantifying the behavior of price dynamics at opening time in stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Takada, Hideyuki; Nacher, Jose C.

    2014-11-01

    The availability of huge volume of financial data has offered the possibility for understanding the markets as a complex system characterized by several stylized facts. Here we first show that the time evolution of the Japan’s Nikkei stock average index (Nikkei 225) futures follows the resistance and breaking-acceleration effects when the complete time series data is analyzed. However, in stock markets there are periods where no regular trades occur between the close of the market on one day and the next day’s open. To examine these time gaps we decompose the time series data into opening time and intermediate time. Our analysis indicates that for the intermediate time, both the resistance and the breaking-acceleration effects are still observed. However, for the opening time there are almost no resistance and breaking-acceleration effects, and volatility is always constantly high. These findings highlight unique dynamic differences between stock markets and forex market and suggest that current risk management strategies may need to be revised to address the absence of these dynamic effects at the opening time.

  7. A fuzzy logic model to forecast stock market momentum in Indonesia's property and real estate sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.

  8. Quantifying the semantics of search behavior before stock market moves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curme, Chester; Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H Eugene; Moat, Helen Susannah

    2014-08-12

    Technology is becoming deeply interwoven into the fabric of society. The Internet has become a central source of information for many people when making day-to-day decisions. Here, we present a method to mine the vast data Internet users create when searching for information online, to identify topics of interest before stock market moves. In an analysis of historic data from 2004 until 2012, we draw on records from the search engine Google and online encyclopedia Wikipedia as well as judgments from the service Amazon Mechanical Turk. We find evidence of links between Internet searches relating to politics or business and subsequent stock market moves. In particular, we find that an increase in search volume for these topics tends to precede stock market falls. We suggest that extensions of these analyses could offer insight into large-scale information flow before a range of real-world events.

  9. A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

    2017-02-01

    A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

  10. Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Cakmakli (Cem); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that

  11. Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting stock returns and volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cakmakli, C.; van Dijk, D.

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only include

  12. The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models

  13. New Evidence on Price and Volatility Effects of Stock Option Introductions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabir, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    This paper adds to the literature dealing with the effect of derivatives trading on underlying securities by examining option listings from the Netherlands. The effects on both stock returns and volatility are investigated using three types of samples, namely, listing of call options alone,

  14. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  15. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  16. Black swans in the brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Jacob Lovisolo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes extreme values in the daily returns of 45 Brazilian stocks between 2 January 1995 and 18 March 2009. The incidence of observations outside the range of three standard deviationsfrom the mean is at least five times greater than under the normal distribution. The occurrence of extreme values in the upper tail is 1.13 times higher than in the lower. The average of the extreme positive returns is higher than that of extreme negative returns. Half percent of the days determined the outcome of the investment. Extreme values are at least ± 7%. Investors should assess whether they will keep their holdings when returns of such magnitude occur. The characteristics of empirical distributions of stock returns favor the passive investor and the use of weight constraints in portfolio allocation models.

  17. Merger negotiations with stock market feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Betton, Sandra; Eckbo, B. Espen; Thompson, Rex; Thorburn, Karin S.

    2011-01-01

    Merger negotiations routinely occur amidst economically significant a target stock price runups. Since the source of the runup is unobservable (is it a target stand-alone value change and/or deal anticipation?), feeding the runup back into the offer price risks "paying twice" for the target shares. We present a novel structural empirical analysis of this runup feedback hypothesis. We show that rational deal anticipation implies a nonlinear relationship between the runup and the offer price ma...

  18. Which global stock indices trigger stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market? Evidence using a bivariate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Kuan-Min

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends recent investigations into risk contagion effects on stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006 to May 3, 2012 are sourced to empirically validate the contagion effects between stock markets in Vietnam, and China, Japan, Singapore, and the US. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market-related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariate EGARCH model of dynamic conditional correlation coefficients. Using the correlation contagion test and Dungey et al.’s (2005 contagion test, we find contagion effects between the Vietnamese and four other stock markets, namely Japan, Singapore, China, and the US. Second, we show that the Japanese stock market causes stronger contagion risk in the Vietnamese stock market compared to the stock markets of China, Singapore, and the US. Finally, we show that the Chinese and US stock markets cause weaker contagion effects in the Vietnamese stock market because of stronger interdependence effects between the former two markets.

  19. Herd behaviour experimental testing in laboratory artificial stock market settings. Behavioural foundations of stylised facts of financial returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manahov, Viktor; Hudson, Robert

    2013-10-01

    Many scholars express concerns that herding behaviour causes excess volatility, destabilises financial markets, and increases the likelihood of systemic risk. We use a special form of the Strongly Typed Genetic Programming (STGP) technique to evolve a stock market divided into two groups-a small subset of artificial agents called ‘Best Agents’ and a main cohort of agents named ‘All Agents’. The ‘Best Agents’ perform best in term of the trailing return of a wealth moving average. We then investigate whether herding behaviour can arise when agents trade Dow Jones, General Electric, and IBM financial instruments in four different artificial stock markets. This paper uses real historical quotes of the three financial instruments to analyse the behavioural foundations of stylised facts such as leptokurtosis, non-IIDness, and volatility clustering. We found evidence of more herding in a group of stocks than in individual stocks, but the magnitude of herding does not contribute to the mispricing of assets in the long run. Our findings suggest that the price formation process caused by the collective behaviour of the entire market exhibit less herding and is more efficient than the segmented market populated by a small subset of agents. Hence, greater genetic diversity leads to greater consistency with fundamental values and market efficiency.

  20. Effects of interest rate, exchange rate and their volatilities on stock prices: evidence from banking industry of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tehseen JAWAID

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of exchange rate, interest rates, and their volatilities on stock prices of banking industry of Pakistan. Cointegration results suggests the existance of significant negative long run relationship between exchange rate and short term interest rate with stock prices. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship exists between volatilities of exchange rate and interest rate with stock prices. Causality analysis confirms bidirectional causality between exchange rate and stock prices. Whereas, unidirectional causality runs from short term interest rate to stock prices. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the results are robust. It is suggested that investors should invest in banking sector stocks when exchange rate and interest rates are highly volatile. The result also supports the view that exchange rate and interest rate can be used as an indicator for investment decision making in banking sector stocks.

  1. Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Kumar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the first and second orders moment transmission between gold and Indian industrial sectors with an application of portfolio design and hedging effectiveness using generalised VAR-ADCC-BVGARCH model. Our findings indicate unidirectional significant return spillover from gold to stock sectors. The negative values of estimated time varying conditional correlations are mainly observed during periods of market turbulence and crisis indicating the scope of portfolio diversification and hedging during these periods. We also estimate optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the stock-gold portfolios. Our findings suggest that stock-gold portfolio provides better diversification benefits than stock portfolios.

  2. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  3. Assessment of 48 Stock markets using adaptive multifractal approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia; Movahed, S. M. S.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, Stock market comovements are examined using cointegration, Granger causality tests and nonlinear approaches in context of mutual information and correlations. Since underlying data sets are affected by non-stationarities and trends, we also apply Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (AMF-DFA) and Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (AMF-DXA). We find only 170 pair of Stock markets cointegrated, and according to the Granger causality and mutual information, we realize that the strongest relations lies between emerging markets, and between emerging and frontier markets. According to scaling exponent given by AMF-DFA, h(q = 2) > 1, we find that all underlying data sets belong to non-stationary process. According to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), only 8 markets are classified in uncorrelated processes at 2 σ confidence interval. 6 Stock markets belong to anti-correlated class and dominant part of markets has memory in corresponding daily index prices during January 1995 to February 2014. New-Zealand with H = 0 . 457 ± 0 . 004 and Jordan with H = 0 . 602 ± 0 . 006 are far from EMH. The nature of cross-correlation exponents based on AMF-DXA is almost multifractal for all pair of Stock markets. The empirical relation, Hxy ≤ [Hxx +Hyy ] / 2, is confirmed. Mentioned relation for q > 0 is also satisfied while for q behavior of markets for small fluctuations is affected by contribution of major pair. For larger fluctuations, the cross-correlation contains information from both local (internal) and global (external) conditions. Width of singularity spectrum for auto-correlation and cross-correlation are Δαxx ∈ [ 0 . 304 , 0 . 905 ] and Δαxy ∈ [ 0 . 246 , 1 . 178 ] , respectively. The wide range of singularity spectrum for cross-correlation confirms that the bilateral relation between Stock markets is more complex. The value of σDCCA indicates that all pairs of stock market studied in this time interval

  4. Adaptive Sniping for Volatile and Stable Continuous Double Auction Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toft, I. E.; Bagnall, A. J.

    This paper introduces a new adaptive sniping agent for the Continuous Double Auction. We begin by analysing the performance of the well known Kaplan sniper in two extremes of market conditions. We generate volatile and stable market conditions using the well known Zero Intelligence-Constrained agent and a new zero-intelligence agent Small Increment (SI). ZI-C agents submit random but profitable bids/offers and cause high volatility in prices and individual trader performance. Our new zero-intelligence agent, SI, makes small random adjustments to the outstanding bid/offer and hence is more cautious than ZI-C. We present results for SI in self-play and then analyse Kaplan in volatile and stable markets. We demonstrate that the non-adaptive Kaplan sniper can be configured to suit either market conditions, but no single configuration is performs well across both market types. We believe that in a dynamic auction environment where current or future market conditions cannot be predicted a viable sniping strategy should adapt its behaviour to suit prevailing market conditions. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Sniper (AS) agent for the CDA. AS traders classify sniping opportunities using a statistical model of market activity and adjust their classification thresholds using a Widrow-Hoff adapted search. Our AS agent requires little configuration, and outperforms the original Kaplan sniper in volatile and stable markets, and in a mixed trader type scenario that includes adaptive strategies from the literature.

  5. Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania

    2012-01-01

    Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

  6. Stock or stroke? Stock market movement and stroke incidence in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chun-Chih; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Lin, Ying-Tzu

    2012-12-01

    This paper investigates the impact of stock market movement on incidences of stroke utilizing population-based aggregate data in Taiwan. Using the daily data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and from the National Health Insurance Research Database during 2001/1/1-2007/12/31, which consist of 2556 observations, we examine the effects of stock market on stroke incidence - the level effect and the daily change effects. In general, we find that both a low stock index level and a daily fall in the stock index are associated with greater incidences of stroke. We further partition the data on sex and age. The level effect is found to be significant for either gender, in the 45-64 and 65 ≥ age groups. In addition, two daily change effects are found to be significant for males and the elderly. Although stockholdings can increase wealth, they can also increase stroke incidence, thereby representing a cost to health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Testing for multifractality of Islamic stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saâdaoui, Foued

    2018-04-01

    Studying the power-law scaling of financial time series is a promising area of econophysics, which has often contributed to the understanding of the intricate features of the global markets. In this article, we examine the multifractality of some financial processes and the underlying formation mechanisms in the context of Islamic equity markets. The well-known Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) is used to investigate the self-similar properties of two Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes (DJIM). The results prove that both indexes exhibit multifractal properties. By discussing the sources of multifractality, we find that they are related to the occurrence of extreme events, long-range dependency of autocorrelations and fat-tailed distribution of returns. These results have several important implications for analysts and decision makers in modeling the dynamics of Islamic markets, thus recommending efficient asset allocation plans to investors dealing with Islamic equity markets.

  8. 51 The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2012-01-24

    Jan 24, 2012 ... An International Multidisciplinary Journal, Ethiopia ... study measures the relationship between stock market development indices ... The stock market capitalization ratio was used as a ... market performance and economic growth. ... With well-functional financial sector or banking sector, stock markets can.

  9. Black swans in the brazilian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Lovisolo,Hugo Jacob; Leal,Ricardo Pereira Câmara

    2013-01-01

    This study analyzes extreme values in the daily returns of 45 Brazilian stocks between 2 January 1995 and 18 March 2009. The incidence of observations outside the range of three standard deviationsfrom the mean is at least five times greater than under the normal distribution. The occurrence of extreme values in the upper tail is 1.13 times higher than in the lower. The average of the extreme positive returns is higher than that of extreme negative returns. Half percent of the days determined...

  10. Free Cash-Flow, Issuance Costs and Stock Price Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Décamps, Jean-Paul; Mariotti, Thomas; Rochet, Jean-Charles; Villeneuve, Stéphane

    2008-01-01

    We study the issuance and payout policies that maximize the value of a firm facing both agency costs of free cash-flow and external financing costs. We find that the firm optimally issues equity. Equity distributes no dividends until a target cash level is reached, while new equity is issued when the firm runs out of cash. We characterize the process modelling the number of outstanding shares and the dynamics of the stock prices. In line with the leverage effect identified by Black (1976), we...

  11. The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuo-Ting; Lih, Jiann-Shing; Ko, Jing-Yuan

    2012-12-01

    This study examines statistical regularities among three components of stocks and indices: daytime (trading hour) return, overnight (off-hour session) return, and total (close-to-close) return. Owing to the fact that the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has the longest non-trading periods among major markets, the TWSE is selected to explore the correlation among the three components and compare it with major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). Analysis results indicate a negative cross correlation between the sign of daytime return and the sign of overnight return; possibly explaining why most stocks feature a negative cross correlation between daytime return and overnight return [F. Wang, S.-J. Shieh, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return, Phys. Rev. E 79 (2009) 056109]. Additionally, the cross correlation between the magnitude of returns is analyzed. According to those results, a larger magnitude of overnight return implies a higher probability that the sign of the following daytime return is the opposite of the sign of overnight return. Namely, the predictability of daytime return might be improved when a stock undergoes a large magnitude of overnight return. Furthermore, the cross correlations of 29 indices of worldwide markets are discussed.

  12. Stroke: a Hidden Danger of Margin Trading in Stock Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shu-Hui; Wang, Chien-Ho; Liu, Tsai-Ching; Chen, Chin-Shyan

    2015-10-01

    Using 10-year population data from 2000 through 2009 in Taiwan, this is the first paper to analyze the relationship between margin trading in stock markets and stroke hospitalizations. The results show that 3 and 6 days after an increase of margin trading in the Taiwan stock markets are associated with greater stoke hospitalizations. In general, a 1 % increase in total margin trading positions is associated with an increment of 2.5 in the total number of stroke hospitalizations, where the mean number of hospital admissions is 233 cases a day. We further examine the effects of margin trading by gender and age groups and find that the effects of margin trading are significant for males and those who are 45-74 years old only. In summary, buying stocks with money you do not have is quite risky, especially if the prices of those stocks fall past a certain level or if there is a sudden and severe drop in the stock market. There is also a hidden danger to one's health from margin trading. A person should be cautious before conducting margin trading, because while it can be quite profitable, danger always lurks just around the corner.

  13. The Market Efficiency of the Stock Market in India

    OpenAIRE

    Rahman, Sahnawaz

    2011-01-01

    The greatest and engendering event in the Twenty first century is capital and financial market revolution and reformation especially for India. Efficient Market Hypothesis has attracted numbers of studies in empirical finance particularly in determining the market efficiency of an emerging financial market which produced conflicting and inconclusive outcomes. This paper tests the efficiency of the Indian Capital Market in its semi-strong form and weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)...

  14. The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xueyong; An, Haizhong; Huang, Shupei; Wen, Shaobo

    2017-01-01

    Aiming to investigate the evolution of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in the time and frequency dimensions, we employed WTI crude oil prices, the S&P 500 (USA) index and the MICEX index (Russia) for the period Jan. 2003-Dec. 2014 as sample data. We first applied a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK method to examine the spillover features in frequency dimension. To consider the evolution of spillover effects in time dimension at multiple-scales, we then divided the full sample period into three sub-periods, pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period. The results indicate that spillover effects vary across wavelet scales in terms of strength and direction. By analysis the time-varying linkage, we found the different evolution features of spillover effects between the Oil-US stock market and Oil-Russia stock market. The spillover relationship between oil and US stock market is shifting to short-term while the spillover relationship between oil and Russia stock market is changing to all time scales. That result implies that the linkage between oil and US stock market is weakening in the long-term, and the linkage between oil and Russia stock market is getting close in all time scales. This may explain the phenomenon that the US stock index and the Russia stock index showed the opposite trend with the falling of oil price in the post-crisis period.

  15. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES - BRICS, FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF STOCK EXCHANGE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sechel Ioana-Cristina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Many international investors have realized that they cannot obtain profits as large, investing in mature markets as well as investing in emerging and developing countries. They want to obtain higher yields, of course assuming the extra risk, as the risk of liquidity or volatility of exchange rates, which are significantly higher than in developed markets. Studies on the BRICS economies are countless, researchers pointing that the development of these economies and their transition towards developed economies category is virtually inevitable (Nistor, 2011. In this article we propose a smooth approach on the state of the economies of the BRICS emerging countries and the stock exchanges markets. It is interesting to observe how, according to a forecast of the International Monetary Fund, in the year 2025 world supremacy from the economic point of view will belong still to the United States, but the discrepancies between the United States economy and China's economy subside until then. The same source, however, predict that by the year 2050, China's economy will bring forward the United States of America. However, should not be lost of sight the fact that China is part of the BRICS countries, with enormous development potential. As proof of those exposed earlier, sits the performance obtained from China's economy especially in times of crisis, when the vast majority of the world's economies recorded negative economic growth. Somewhat improperly said so, we were witnessing a world economic depression. The performance of China's economy is so, noteworthy, it received even in the toughest years of global financial and economic crisis, a positive value of economic growth. This also happened, within other BRICS emerging countries economies, having many similar economic meanings. With such a potential for economic growth, the economies of BRICS countries have brought into the spot light the operational stock exchanges. The interest of investors for

  16. Changes of hierarchical network in local and world stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwary, Enayet Ullah; Lee, Jong Youl; Nobi, Ashadun; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

    2017-10-01

    We consider the cross-correlation coefficients of the daily returns in the local and global stock markets. We generate the minimal spanning tree (MST) using the correlation matrix. We observe that the MSTs change their structure from chain-like networks to star-like networks during periods of market uncertainty. We quantify the measure of the hierarchical network utilizing the value of the hierarchy measured by the hierarchical path. The hierarchy and betweenness centrality characterize the state of the market regarding the impact of crises. During crises, the non-financial company is established as the central node of the MST. However, before the crisis and during stable periods, the financial company is occupying the central node of the MST in the Korean and the U.S. stock markets. The changes in the network structure and the central node are good indicators of an upcoming crisis.

  17. Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Roberto; Zembrzuski, Marcelo; Correa, Fabio C.; Lamb, Luis C.

    2010-12-01

    We show that the current economic crisis has led the market to exhibit a non-critical behavior. We do so by analyzing the quantitative parameters of time series from the main assets of the Brazilian Stock Market BOVESPA. By monitoring global persistence we show a deviation of power law behavior during the crisis in a strong analogy with spin systems (from where this concept was originally conceived). Such behavior is corroborated by an emergent heavy tail of absolute return distribution and also by the magnitude autocorrelation exponent. Comparisons with universal exponents obtained in the international stock markets are also performed. This suggests how a thorough analysis of suitable exponents can bring a possible way of forecasting market crises characterized by non-criticality.

  18. Volatility transmission between small and large caps in the Brazilian market

    OpenAIRE

    Marcelo Brutti Righi; Paulo Sergio Ceretta

    2014-01-01

    Researches about volatility transmission between small and large company stocks had received great attention in last years. Based on this idea, the current paper aims to analyze the occurrence of volatility transmission between small and large companies in Brazil. To that, we estimate multivariate GARCH models. As asset proxies we used the Small and Mid-Large cap BM&F/Bovespa index. Results allow concluding that large company stocks impact the small stocks conditional volatility. ...

  19. Cointegration-based financial networks study in Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Chengyi

    2014-05-01

    We propose a method based on cointegration instead of correlation to construct financial complex network in Chinese stock market. The network is obtained starting from the matrix of p-value calculated by Engle-Granger cointegration test between all pairs of stocks. Then some tools for filtering information in complex network are implemented to prune the complete graph described by the above matrix, such as setting a level of statistical significance as a threshold and Planar Maximally Filtered Graph. We also calculate Partial Correlation Planar Graph of these stocks to compare the above networks. Last, we analyze these directed, weighted and non-symmetric networks by using standard methods of network analysis, including degree centrality, PageRank, HITS, local clustering coefficient, K-shell and strongly and weakly connected components. The results shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces in a financial market and deepen our understanding of financial complex network.

  20. Machine learning in sentiment reconstruction of the simulated stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goykhman, Mikhail; Teimouri, Ali

    2018-02-01

    In this paper we continue the study of the simulated stock market framework defined by the driving sentiment processes. We focus on the market environment driven by the buy/sell trading sentiment process of the Markov chain type. We apply the methodology of the Hidden Markov Models and the Recurrent Neural Networks to reconstruct the transition probabilities matrix of the Markov sentiment process and recover the underlying sentiment states from the observed stock price behavior. We demonstrate that the Hidden Markov Model can successfully recover the transition probabilities matrix for the hidden sentiment process of the Markov Chain type. We also demonstrate that the Recurrent Neural Network can successfully recover the hidden sentiment states from the observed simulated stock price time series.