WorldWideScience

Sample records for stochastic stability analysis

  1. Stability analysis for stochastic BAM nonlinear neural network with delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Z. W.; Shu, H. S.; Wei, G. L.

    2008-02-01

    In this paper, stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with constant or time-varying delays is considered. Based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the stochastic stability analysis theory, we derive several sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the global asymptotically stable in the mean square. Our investigation shows that the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks are globally asymptotically stable in the mean square if there are solutions to some linear matrix inequalities(LMIs). Hence, the global asymptotic stability of the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks can be easily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global asymptotic stability criteria.

  2. Stability analysis for stochastic BAM nonlinear neural network with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv, Z W; Shu, H S; Wei, G L

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with constant or time-varying delays is considered. Based on a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the stochastic stability analysis theory, we derive several sufficient conditions in order to guarantee the global asymptotically stable in the mean square. Our investigation shows that the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks are globally asymptotically stable in the mean square if there are solutions to some linear matrix inequalities(LMIs). Hence, the global asymptotic stability of the stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks can be easily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global asymptotic stability criteria

  3. Stability analysis of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou Qi, E-mail: zhouqilhy@yahoo.com.c [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Xu Shengyuan [School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, Jiangsu (China); Chen Bing [Institute of Complexity Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong (China); Li Hongyi [Space Control and Inertial Technology Research Center, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001 (China); Chu Yuming [Department of Mathematics, Huzhou Teacher' s College, Huzhou 313000, Zhejiang (China)

    2009-10-05

    This Letter considers the problem of stability analysis of a class of delayed genetic regulatory networks with stochastic disturbances. The delays are assumed to be time-varying and bounded. By utilizing Ito's differential formula and Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, delay-range-dependent and rate-dependent (rate-independent) stability criteria are proposed in terms of linear matrices inequalities. An important feature of the proposed results is that all the stability conditions are dependent on the upper and lower bounds of the delays. Another important feature is that the obtained stability conditions are less conservative than certain existing ones in the literature due to introducing some appropriate free-weighting matrices. A simulation example is employed to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  4. Analysis of stability for stochastic delay integro-differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Li, Longsuo

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we concern stability of numerical methods applied to stochastic delay integro-differential equations. For linear stochastic delay integro-differential equations, it is shown that the mean-square stability is derived by the split-step backward Euler method without any restriction on step-size, while the Euler-Maruyama method could reproduce the mean-square stability under a step-size constraint. We also confirm the mean-square stability of the split-step backward Euler method for nonlinear stochastic delay integro-differential equations. The numerical experiments further verify the theoretical results.

  5. Path to Stochastic Stability: Comparative Analysis of Stochastic Learning Dynamics in Games

    KAUST Repository

    Jaleel, Hassan

    2018-04-08

    Stochastic stability is a popular solution concept for stochastic learning dynamics in games. However, a critical limitation of this solution concept is its inability to distinguish between different learning rules that lead to the same steady-state behavior. We address this limitation for the first time and develop a framework for the comparative analysis of stochastic learning dynamics with different update rules but same steady-state behavior. We present the framework in the context of two learning dynamics: Log-Linear Learning (LLL) and Metropolis Learning (ML). Although both of these dynamics have the same stochastically stable states, LLL and ML correspond to different behavioral models for decision making. Moreover, we demonstrate through an example setup of sensor coverage game that for each of these dynamics, the paths to stochastically stable states exhibit distinctive behaviors. Therefore, we propose multiple criteria to analyze and quantify the differences in the short and medium run behavior of stochastic learning dynamics. We derive and compare upper bounds on the expected hitting time to the set of Nash equilibria for both LLL and ML. For the medium to long-run behavior, we identify a set of tools from the theory of perturbed Markov chains that result in a hierarchical decomposition of the state space into collections of states called cycles. We compare LLL and ML based on the proposed criteria and develop invaluable insights into the comparative behavior of the two dynamics.

  6. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  7. Path to Stochastic Stability: Comparative Analysis of Stochastic Learning Dynamics in Games

    KAUST Repository

    Jaleel, Hassan; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2018-01-01

    dynamics: Log-Linear Learning (LLL) and Metropolis Learning (ML). Although both of these dynamics have the same stochastically stable states, LLL and ML correspond to different behavioral models for decision making. Moreover, we demonstrate through

  8. Stability analysis for neutral stochastic differential equation of second order driven by Poisson jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadha, Alka; Bora, Swaroop Nandan

    2017-11-01

    This paper studies the existence, uniqueness, and exponential stability in mean square for the mild solution of neutral second order stochastic partial differential equations with infinite delay and Poisson jumps. By utilizing the Banach fixed point theorem, first the existence and uniqueness of the mild solution of neutral second order stochastic differential equations is established. Then, the mean square exponential stability for the mild solution of the stochastic system with Poisson jumps is obtained with the help of an established integral inequality.

  9. Stability analysis of stochastic delayed cellular neural networks by LMI approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Wenli; Hu Jin

    2006-01-01

    Some sufficient mean square exponential stability conditions for a class of stochastic DCNN model are obtained via the LMI approach. These conditions improve and generalize some existing global asymptotic stability conditions for DCNN model

  10. Phase stability analysis of liquid-liquid equilibrium with stochastic methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Nagatani

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Minimization of Gibbs free energy using activity coefficient models and nonlinear equation solution techniques is commonly applied to phase stability problems. However, when conventional techniques, such as the Newton-Raphson method, are employed, serious convergence problems may arise. Due to the existence of multiple solutions, several problems can be found in modeling liquid-liquid equilibrium of multicomponent systems, which are highly dependent on the initial guess. In this work phase stability analysis of liquid-liquid equilibrium is investigated using the NRTL model. For this purpose, two distinct stochastic numerical algorithms are employed to minimize the tangent plane distance of Gibbs free energy: a subdivision algorithm that can find all roots of nonlinear equations for liquid-liquid stability analysis and the Simulated Annealing method. Results obtained in this work for the two stochastic algorithms are compared with those of the Interval Newton method from the literature. Several different binary and multicomponent systems from the literature were successfully investigated.

  11. Robust stability analysis of uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Wei; Yang, Simon X.; Fu Wei; Wu Haixia

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses the stability analysis problem for uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delays. The parameter uncertainties are assumed to be norm bounded, and the delay factor is assumed to be time-varying and belong to a given interval, which means that the lower and upper bounds of interval time-varying delays are available. A sufficient condition is derived such that for all admissible uncertainties, the considered neural network is robustly, globally, asymptotically stable in the mean square. Some stability criteria are formulated by means of the feasibility of a linear matrix inequality (LMI), which can be effectively solved by some standard numerical packages. Finally, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria.

  12. Stochastic stability analysis for delayed neural networks of neutral type with Markovian jump parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lou Xuyang; Cui Baotong

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of stochastic stability for a class of delayed neural networks of neutral type with Markovian jump parameters is investigated. The jumping parameters are modelled as a continuous-time, discrete-state Markov process. A sufficient condition guaranteeing the stochastic stability of the equilibrium point is derived for the Markovian jumping delayed neural networks (MJDNNs) with neutral type. The stability criterion not only eliminates the differences between excitatory and inhibitory effects on the neural networks, but also can be conveniently checked. The sufficient condition obtained can be essentially solved in terms of linear matrix inequality. A numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

  13. Stochastic Analysis 2010

    CERN Document Server

    Crisan, Dan

    2011-01-01

    "Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

  14. Improved result on stability analysis of discrete stochastic neural networks with time delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Zhengguang; Su Hongye; Chu Jian; Zhou Wuneng

    2009-01-01

    This Letter investigates the problem of exponential stability for discrete stochastic time-delay neural networks. By defining a novel Lyapunov functional, an improved delay-dependent exponential stability criterion is established in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. Meanwhile, the computational complexity of the newly established stability condition is reduced because less variables are involved. Numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and the benefits of the proposed method.

  15. Stability analysis of multi-group deterministic and stochastic epidemic models with vaccination rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhi-Gang; Gao Rui-Mei; Fan Xiao-Ming; Han Qi-Xing

    2014-01-01

    We discuss in this paper a deterministic multi-group MSIR epidemic model with a vaccination rate, the basic reproduction number ℛ 0 , a key parameter in epidemiology, is a threshold which determines the persistence or extinction of the disease. By using Lyapunov function techniques, we show if ℛ 0 is greater than 1 and the deterministic model obeys some conditions, then the disease will prevail, the infective persists and the endemic state is asymptotically stable in a feasible region. If ℛ 0 is less than or equal to 1, then the infective disappear so the disease dies out. In addition, stochastic noises around the endemic equilibrium will be added to the deterministic MSIR model in order that the deterministic model is extended to a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations. In the stochastic version, we carry out a detailed analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic model. In addition, regarding the value of ℛ 0 , when the stochastic system obeys some conditions and ℛ 0 is greater than 1, we deduce the stochastic system is stochastically asymptotically stable. Finally, the deterministic and stochastic model dynamics are illustrated through computer simulations. (general)

  16. Stability analysis for discrete-time stochastic memristive neural networks with both leakage and probabilistic delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongjian; Wang, Zidong; Shen, Bo; Huang, Tingwen; Alsaadi, Fuad E

    2018-06-01

    This paper is concerned with the globally exponential stability problem for a class of discrete-time stochastic memristive neural networks (DSMNNs) with both leakage delays as well as probabilistic time-varying delays. For the probabilistic delays, a sequence of Bernoulli distributed random variables is utilized to determine within which intervals the time-varying delays fall at certain time instant. The sector-bounded activation function is considered in the addressed DSMNN. By taking into account the state-dependent characteristics of the network parameters and choosing an appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, some sufficient conditions are established under which the underlying DSMNN is globally exponentially stable in the mean square. The derived conditions are made dependent on both the leakage and the probabilistic delays, and are therefore less conservative than the traditional delay-independent criteria. A simulation example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed stability criterion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Mean square exponential stability of stochastic delayed Hopfield neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Li; Sun Jianhua

    2005-01-01

    Stochastic effects to the stability property of Hopfield neural networks (HNN) with discrete and continuously distributed delay are considered. By using the method of variation parameter, inequality technique and stochastic analysis, the sufficient conditions to guarantee the mean square exponential stability of an equilibrium solution are given. Two examples are also given to demonstrate our results

  18. On the stochastic stability of MHD equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teichmann, J.

    1979-07-01

    The stochastic stability in the large of stationary equilibria of ideal and dissipative magnetohydrodynamics under the influence of stationary random fluctuations is studied using the direct Liapunov method. Sufficient and necessary conditions for stability of the linearized Euler-Lagrangian systems are given. The destabilizing effect of stochastic fluctuations is demonstrated. (orig.)

  19. Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Wei; Xu Wei; Zhao Junfeng; Jin Yanfei

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of the work of Goodwin and Puu, a new business cycle model subject to a stochastically parametric excitation is derived in this paper. At first, we reduce the model to a one-dimensional diffusion process by applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi-nonintegrable Hamiltonian system. Secondly, we utilize the methods of Lyapunov exponent and boundary classification associated with diffusion process respectively to analyze the stochastic stability of the trivial solution of system. The numerical results obtained illustrate that the trivial solution of system must be globally stable if it is locally stable in the state space. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic Hopf bifurcation of the business cycle model according to the qualitative changes in stationary probability density of system response. It is concluded that the stochastic Hopf bifurcation occurs at two critical parametric values. Finally, some explanations are given in a simply way on the potential applications of stochastic stability and bifurcation analysis

  20. Spatiotemporal Stochastic Modeling of IoT Enabled Cellular Networks: Scalability and Stability Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Gharbieh, Mohammad; Elsawy, Hesham; Bader, Ahmed; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2017-01-01

    The Internet of Things (IoT) is large-scale by nature, which is manifested by the massive number of connected devices as well as their vast spatial existence. Cellular networks, which provide ubiquitous, reliable, and efficient wireless access, will play fundamental rule in delivering the first-mile access for the data tsunami to be generated by the IoT. However, cellular networks may have scalability problems to provide uplink connectivity to massive numbers of connected things. To characterize the scalability of cellular uplink in the context of IoT networks, this paper develops a traffic-aware spatiotemporal mathematical model for IoT devices supported by cellular uplink connectivity. The developed model is based on stochastic geometry and queueing theory to account for the traffic requirement per IoT device, the different transmission strategies, and the mutual interference between the IoT devices. To this end, the developed model is utilized to characterize the extent to which cellular networks can accommodate IoT traffic as well as to assess and compare three different transmission strategies that incorporate a combination of transmission persistency, backoff, and power-ramping. The analysis and the results clearly illustrate the scalability problem imposed by IoT on cellular network and offer insights into effective scenarios for each transmission strategy.

  1. Spatiotemporal Stochastic Modeling of IoT Enabled Cellular Networks: Scalability and Stability Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Gharbieh, Mohammad

    2017-05-02

    The Internet of Things (IoT) is large-scale by nature, which is manifested by the massive number of connected devices as well as their vast spatial existence. Cellular networks, which provide ubiquitous, reliable, and efficient wireless access, will play fundamental rule in delivering the first-mile access for the data tsunami to be generated by the IoT. However, cellular networks may have scalability problems to provide uplink connectivity to massive numbers of connected things. To characterize the scalability of cellular uplink in the context of IoT networks, this paper develops a traffic-aware spatiotemporal mathematical model for IoT devices supported by cellular uplink connectivity. The developed model is based on stochastic geometry and queueing theory to account for the traffic requirement per IoT device, the different transmission strategies, and the mutual interference between the IoT devices. To this end, the developed model is utilized to characterize the extent to which cellular networks can accommodate IoT traffic as well as to assess and compare three different transmission strategies that incorporate a combination of transmission persistency, backoff, and power-ramping. The analysis and the results clearly illustrate the scalability problem imposed by IoT on cellular network and offer insights into effective scenarios for each transmission strategy.

  2. Robust stability analysis of Takagi—Sugeno uncertain stochastic fuzzy recurrent neural networks with mixed time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M. Syed

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the global stability of Takagi—Sugeno (TS) uncertain stochastic fuzzy recurrent neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays (TSUSFRNNs) is considered. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by using Lyapunov functional theory to guarantee the asymptotic stability of TSUSFRNNs. The proposed stability conditions are demonstrated through numerical examples. Furthermore, the supplementary requirement that the time derivative of time-varying delays must be smaller than one is removed. Comparison results are demonstrated to show that the proposed method is more able to guarantee the widest stability region than the other methods available in the existing literature. (general)

  3. Evolutionary stability concepts in a stochastic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiu-Deng; Li, Cong; Lessard, Sabin; Tao, Yi

    2017-09-01

    Over the past 30 years, evolutionary game theory and the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy have been not only extensively developed and successfully applied to explain the evolution of animal behaviors, but also widely used in economics and social sciences. Nonetheless, the stochastic dynamical properties of evolutionary games in randomly fluctuating environments are still unclear. In this study, we investigate conditions for stochastic local stability of fixation states and constant interior equilibria in a two-phenotype model with random payoffs following pairwise interactions. Based on this model, we develop the concepts of stochastic evolutionary stability (SES) and stochastic convergence stability (SCS). We show that the condition for a pure strategy to be SES and SCS is more stringent than in a constant environment, while the condition for a constant mixed strategy to be SES is less stringent than the condition to be SCS, which is less stringent than the condition in a constant environment.

  4. Stability analysis of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M. Syed

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the global asymptotic stability problem of Markovian jumping stochastic Cohen—Grossberg neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays (MJSCGNNs) is considered. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by constructing a new Lyapunov functional to guarantee the asymptotic stability of MJSCGNNs. Our results can be easily verified and they are also less restrictive than previously known criteria and can be applied to Cohen—Grossberg neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and cellular neural networks. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples

  5. Railway Timetable Stability Analysis Using Stochastic Max-Plus Linear Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goverde, R.M.P.; Heidergott, B.; Merlet, G.

    2010-01-01

    Stability and robustness of a railway timetable are essential properties for punctual and reliable operations. Timetable performance evaluation is therefore an important aspect in the timetable design process. In particular, the stability and recoverability properties of a timetable with respect to

  6. Foundations of stochastic analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, M M; Lukacs, E

    1981-01-01

    Foundations of Stochastic Analysis deals with the foundations of the theory of Kolmogorov and Bochner and its impact on the growth of stochastic analysis. Topics covered range from conditional expectations and probabilities to projective and direct limits, as well as martingales and likelihood ratios. Abstract martingales and their applications are also discussed. Comprised of five chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic Kolmogorov-Bochner theorem, followed by a discussion on conditional expectations and probabilities containing several characterizations of operators and mea

  7. Stochastic Stability of Endogenous Growth: Theory and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Boucekkine, Raouf; Pintus, Patrick; Zou, Benteng

    2015-01-01

    We examine the issue of stability of stochastic endogenous growth. First, stochastic stability concepts are introduced and applied to stochastic linear homogenous differen- tial equations to which several stochastic endogenous growth models reduce. Second, we apply the mathematical theory to two models, starting with the stochastic AK model. It’s shown that in this case exponential balanced paths, which characterize optimal trajectories in the absence of uncertainty, are not robust to uncerta...

  8. Novel delay-distribution-dependent stability analysis for continuous-time recurrent neural networks with stochastic delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Shen-Quan; Feng Jian; Zhao Qing

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of delay-distribution-dependent stability is investigated for continuous-time recurrent neural networks (CRNNs) with stochastic delay. Different from the common assumptions on time delays, it is assumed that the probability distribution of the delay taking values in some intervals is known a priori. By making full use of the information concerning the probability distribution of the delay and by using a tighter bounding technique (the reciprocally convex combination method), less conservative asymptotic mean-square stable sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Two numerical examples show that our results are better than the existing ones. (general)

  9. Stochastic Analysis with Financial Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic analysis has a variety of applications to biological systems as well as physical and engineering problems, and its applications to finance and insurance have bloomed exponentially in recent times. The goal of this book is to present a broad overview of the range of applications of stochastic analysis and some of its recent theoretical developments. This includes numerical simulation, error analysis, parameter estimation, as well as control and robustness properties for stochastic equations. This book also covers the areas of backward stochastic differential equations via the (non-li

  10. Exponential p-stability of impulsive stochastic differential equations with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Zhiguo; Xu Daoyi; Xiang Li

    2006-01-01

    In this Letter, we establish a method to study the exponential p-stability of the zero solution of impulsive stochastic differential equations with delays. By establishing an L-operator inequality and using the properties of M-cone and stochastic analysis technique, we obtain some new conditions ensuring the exponential p-stability of the zero solution of impulsive stochastic differential equations with delays. Two illustrative examples have been provided to show the effectiveness of our results

  11. Lyapunov functionals and stability of stochastic functional differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Shaikhet, Leonid

    2013-01-01

    Stability conditions for functional differential equations can be obtained using Lyapunov functionals. Lyapunov Functionals and Stability of Stochastic Functional Differential Equations describes the general method of construction of Lyapunov functionals to investigate the stability of differential equations with delays. This work continues and complements the author’s previous book Lyapunov Functionals and Stability of Stochastic Difference Equations, where this method is described for discrete- and continuous-time difference equations. The text begins with a description of the peculiarities of deterministic and stochastic functional differential equations. There follow basic definitions for stability theory of stochastic hereditary systems, and a formal procedure of Lyapunov functionals construction is presented. Stability investigation is conducted for stochastic linear and nonlinear differential equations with constant and distributed delays. The proposed method is used for stability investigation of di...

  12. Analytical Assessment for Transient Stability Under Stochastic Continuous Disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ju, Ping [Hohai Univ., Nanjing (China); Li, Hongyu [Hohai Univ., Nanjing (China); Gan, Chun [The Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Liu, Yong [The Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Yu, Yiping [Hohai Univ., Nanjing (China); Liu, Yilu [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2017-06-28

    Here, with the growing integration of renewable power generation, plug-in electric vehicles, and other sources of uncertainty, increasing stochastic continuous disturbances are brought to power systems. The impact of stochastic continuous disturbances on power system transient stability attracts significant attention. To address this problem, this paper proposes an analytical assessment method for transient stability of multi-machine power systems under stochastic continuous disturbances. In the proposed method, a probability measure of transient stability is presented and analytically solved by stochastic averaging. Compared with the conventional method (Monte Carlo simulation), the proposed method is many orders of magnitude faster, which makes it very attractive in practice when many plans for transient stability must be compared or when transient stability must be analyzed quickly. Also, it is found that the evolution of system energy over time is almost a simple diffusion process by the proposed method, which explains the impact mechanism of stochastic continuous disturbances on transient stability in theory.

  13. Stochastic Dynamics Underlying Cognitive Stability and Flexibility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Ueltzhöffer

    2015-06-01

    updating and dopaminergic modulation of cognitive flexibility. These results show that stochastic dynamical systems can implement the basic computations underlying cognitive stability and flexibility and explain neurobiological bases of individual differences.

  14. Stochastic Analysis and Related Topics

    CERN Document Server

    Ustunel, Ali

    1988-01-01

    The Silvri Workshop was divided into a short summer school and a working conference, producing lectures and research papers on recent developments in stochastic analysis on Wiener space. The topics treated in the lectures relate to the Malliavin calculus, the Skorohod integral and nonlinear functionals of white noise. Most of the research papers are applications of these subjects. This volume addresses researchers and graduate students in stochastic processes and theoretical physics.

  15. Exponential stability of uncertain stochastic neural networks with mixed time-delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zidong; Lauria, Stanislao; Fang Jian'an; Liu Xiaohui

    2007-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the global exponential stability analysis problem for a class of stochastic neural networks with mixed time-delays and parameter uncertainties. The mixed delays comprise discrete and distributed time-delays, the parameter uncertainties are norm-bounded, and the neural networks are subjected to stochastic disturbances described in terms of a Brownian motion. The purpose of the stability analysis problem is to derive easy-to-test criteria under which the delayed stochastic neural network is globally, robustly, exponentially stable in the mean square for all admissible parameter uncertainties. By resorting to the Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theory and the stochastic analysis tools, sufficient stability conditions are established by using an efficient linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The proposed criteria can be checked readily by using recently developed numerical packages, where no tuning of parameters is required. An example is provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria

  16. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  17. Stochastic geometry for image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Descombes, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    This book develops the stochastic geometry framework for image analysis purpose. Two main frameworks are  described: marked point process and random closed sets models. We derive the main issues for defining an appropriate model. The algorithms for sampling and optimizing the models as well as for estimating parameters are reviewed.  Numerous applications, covering remote sensing images, biological and medical imaging, are detailed.  This book provides all the necessary tools for developing an image analysis application based on modern stochastic modeling.

  18. Stochastic and infinite dimensional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carpio-Bernido, Maria; Grothaus, Martin; Kuna, Tobias; Oliveira, Maria; Silva, José

    2016-01-01

    This volume presents a collection of papers covering applications from a wide range of systems with infinitely many degrees of freedom studied using techniques from stochastic and infinite dimensional analysis, e.g. Feynman path integrals, the statistical mechanics of polymer chains, complex networks, and quantum field theory. Systems of infinitely many degrees of freedom create their particular mathematical challenges which have been addressed by different mathematical theories, namely in the theories of stochastic processes, Malliavin calculus, and especially white noise analysis. These proceedings are inspired by a conference held on the occasion of Prof. Ludwig Streit’s 75th birthday and celebrate his pioneering and ongoing work in these fields.

  19. Stochastic and non-stochastic effects - a conceptual analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karhausen, L.R.

    1980-01-01

    The attempt to divide radiation effects into stochastic and non-stochastic effects is discussed. It is argued that radiation or toxicological effects are contingently related to radiation or chemical exposure. Biological effects in general can be described by general laws but these laws never represent a necessary connection. Actually stochastic effects express contingent, or empirical, connections while non-stochastic effects represent semantic and non-factual connections. These two expressions stem from two different levels of discourse. The consequence of this analysis for radiation biology and radiation protection is discussed. (author)

  20. Stochastic modeling and analysis of telecoms networks

    CERN Document Server

    Decreusefond, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    This book addresses the stochastic modeling of telecommunication networks, introducing the main mathematical tools for that purpose, such as Markov processes, real and spatial point processes and stochastic recursions, and presenting a wide list of results on stability, performances and comparison of systems.The authors propose a comprehensive mathematical construction of the foundations of stochastic network theory: Markov chains, continuous time Markov chains are extensively studied using an original martingale-based approach. A complete presentation of stochastic recursions from an

  1. Almost sure exponential stability of stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Hongyong; Ding Nan; Chen Ling

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the problem of exponential stability analysis for fuzzy cellular neural network with delays. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functional and using stochastic analysis we present some sufficient conditions ensuring almost sure exponential stability for the network. Moreover, an example is given to demonstrate the advantages of our method.

  2. Stabilization Strategies of Supply Networks with Stochastic Switched Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shukai Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamical supply networks model with stochastic switched topology is presented, in which the stochastic switched topology is dependent on a continuous time Markov process. The goal is to design the state-feedback control strategies to stabilize the dynamical supply networks. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, sufficient conditions for the existence of state feedback control strategies are given in terms of matrix inequalities, which ensure the robust stability of the supply networks at the stationary states and a prescribed H∞ disturbance attenuation level with respect to the uncertain demand. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  3. STABILITY OF SOME KIND OF STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,a kind of stochastic differential equation is investigated and the almost sure exponential stability of the equation is obtained using Gronwall's inequality.Further,we also give other noise intensity function to keep the stability of the system.

  4. STABILITY OF STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH UNBOUNDED DELAY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,we obtain suffcient conditions for the stability in p-th moment of the analytical solutions and the mean square stability of a stochastic differential equation with unbounded delay proposed in [6,10] using the explicit Euler method.

  5. Stochastic stability of four-wheel-steering system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Dongwei; Wang Hongli; Zhu Zhiwen; Feng Zhang

    2007-01-01

    A four-wheel-steering system subjected to white noise excitations was reduced to a two-degree-of-freedom quasi-non-integrable-Hamiltonian system. Subsequently we obtained an one-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation for the averaged Hamiltonian of the system by using the stochastic averaging method for quasi-non-integrable-Hamiltonian systems. Thus, the stochastic stability of four-wheel-steering system was analyzed by analyzing the sample behaviors of the averaged Hamiltonian at the boundary H = 0 and calculating its Lyapunov exponent. An example given at the end demonstrated that the conclusion obtained is of considerable significance

  6. Stochastic modeling of mode interactions via linear parabolized stability equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Wei; Zare, Armin; Hack, M. J. Philipp; Jovanovic, Mihailo

    2017-11-01

    Low-complexity approximations of the Navier-Stokes equations have been widely used in the analysis of wall-bounded shear flows. In particular, the parabolized stability equations (PSE) and Floquet theory have been employed to capture the evolution of primary and secondary instabilities in spatially-evolving flows. We augment linear PSE with Floquet analysis to formally treat modal interactions and the evolution of secondary instabilities in the transitional boundary layer via a linear progression. To this end, we leverage Floquet theory by incorporating the primary instability into the base flow and accounting for different harmonics in the flow state. A stochastic forcing is introduced into the resulting linear dynamics to model the effect of nonlinear interactions on the evolution of modes. We examine the H-type transition scenario to demonstrate how our approach can be used to model nonlinear effects and capture the growth of the fundamental and subharmonic modes observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments.

  7. Dynamic analysis of stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Hongyong; Ding Nan

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks model with delays is considered. By constructing Lyapunov functionals, and using stochastic analysis method and inequality technique, we give some sufficient criteria ensuring almost sure exponential stability, pth exponential stability and mean value exponential stability. The obtained criteria can be used as theoretic guidance to stabilize neural networks in practical applications when stochastic noise is taken into consideration

  8. Foundations of infinitesimal stochastic analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Stroyan, KD

    2011-01-01

    This book gives a complete and elementary account of fundamental results on hyperfinite measures and their application to stochastic processes, including the *-finite Stieltjes sum approximation of martingale integrals. Many detailed examples, not found in the literature, are included. It begins with a brief chapter on tools from logic and infinitesimal (or non-standard) analysis so that the material is accessible to beginning graduate students.

  9. Fourier analysis and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Brémaud, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This work is unique as it provides a uniform treatment of the Fourier theories of functions (Fourier transforms and series, z-transforms), finite measures (characteristic functions, convergence in distribution), and stochastic processes (including arma series and point processes). It emphasises the links between these three themes. The chapter on the Fourier theory of point processes and signals structured by point processes is a novel addition to the literature on Fourier analysis of stochastic processes. It also connects the theory with recent lines of research such as biological spike signals and ultrawide-band communications. Although the treatment is mathematically rigorous, the convivial style makes the book accessible to a large audience. In particular, it will be interesting to anyone working in electrical engineering and communications, biology (point process signals) and econometrics (arma models). A careful review of the prerequisites (integration and probability theory in the appendix, Hilbert spa...

  10. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  11. Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Bujorianu, Luminita Manuela

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic reachability analysis (SRA) is a method of analyzing the behavior of control systems which mix discrete and continuous dynamics. For probabilistic discrete systems it has been shown to be a practical verification method but for stochastic hybrid systems it can be rather more. As a verification technique SRA can assess the safety and performance of, for example, autonomous systems, robot and aircraft path planning and multi-agent coordination but it can also be used for the adaptive control of such systems. Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems is a self-contained and accessible introduction to this novel topic in the analysis and development of stochastic hybrid systems. Beginning with the relevant aspects of Markov models and introducing stochastic hybrid systems, the book then moves on to coverage of reachability analysis for stochastic hybrid systems. Following this build up, the core of the text first formally defines the concept of reachability in the stochastic framework and then...

  12. Performance and stochastic stability of the adaptive fading extended Kalman filter with the matrix forgetting factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biçer Cenker

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the stability of the adaptive fading extended Kalman filter with the matrix forgetting factor when applied to the state estimation problem with noise terms in the non–linear discrete–time stochastic systems has been analysed. The analysis is conducted in a similar manner to the standard extended Kalman filter’s stability analysis based on stochastic framework. The theoretical results show that under certain conditions on the initial estimation error and the noise terms, the estimation error remains bounded and the state estimation is stable.

  13. Using metrics in stability of stochastic programming problems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houda, Michal

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 1 (2005), s. 128-134 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : stochastic programming * quantitative stability * Wasserstein metrics * Kolmogorov metrics * simulation study Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  14. Stochastic Stability in Internet Router Congestion Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Christine; Pyrga, Evangelia

    Congestion control at bottleneck routers on the internet is a long standing problem. Many policies have been proposed for effective ways to drop packets from the queues of these routers so that network endpoints will be inclined to share router capacity fairly and minimize the overflow of packets trying to enter the queues. We study just how effective some of these queuing policies are when each network endpoint is a self-interested player with no information about the other players’ actions or preferences. By employing the adaptive learning model of evolutionary game theory, we study policies such as Droptail, RED, and the greedy-flow-punishing policy proposed by Gao et al. [10] to find the stochastically stable states: the states of the system that will be reached in the long run.

  15. Stochastic Analysis : A Series of Lectures

    CERN Document Server

    Dozzi, Marco; Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    This book presents in thirteen refereed survey articles an overview of modern activity in stochastic analysis, written by leading international experts. The topics addressed include stochastic fluid dynamics and regularization by noise of deterministic dynamical systems; stochastic partial differential equations driven by Gaussian or Lévy noise, including the relationship between parabolic equations and particle systems, and wave equations in a geometric framework; Malliavin calculus and applications to stochastic numerics; stochastic integration in Banach spaces; porous media-type equations; stochastic deformations of classical mechanics and Feynman integrals and stochastic differential equations with reflection. The articles are based on short courses given at the Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland, from January to June 2012. They offer a valuable resource not only for specialists, but also for other researchers and Ph.D. students in the fields o...

  16. Stochastic ferromagnetism analysis and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Brzezniak, Zdzislaw; Neklyudov, Mikhail; Prohl, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    This monograph examines magnetization dynamics at elevated temperatures which can be described by the stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation (SLLG). Comparative computational studies with the stochastic model are included. Constructive tools such as e.g. finite element methods are used to derive the theoretical results, which are then used for computational studies.

  17. Exponential stability result for discrete-time stochastic fuzzy uncertain neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiyalagan, K.; Sakthivel, R.; Marshal Anthoni, S.

    2012-01-01

    This Letter addresses the stability analysis problem for a class of uncertain discrete-time stochastic fuzzy neural networks (DSFNNs) with time-varying delays. By constructing a new Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional combined with the free weighting matrix technique, a new set of delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the robust exponential stability of the considered DSFNNs is established in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Finally, numerical examples with simulation results are provided to illustrate the applicability and usefulness of the obtained theory. -- Highlights: ► Applications of neural networks require the knowledge of dynamic behaviors. ► Exponential stability of discrete-time stochastic fuzzy neural networks is studied. ► Linear matrix inequality optimization approach is used to obtain the result. ► Delay-dependent stability criterion is established in terms of LMIs. ► Examples with simulation are provided to show the effectiveness of the result.

  18. Stability of Nonlinear Neutral Stochastic Functional Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minggao Xue

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutral stochastic functional differential equations (NSFDEs have recently been studied intensively. The well-known conditions imposed for the existence and uniqueness and exponential stability of the global solution are the local Lipschitz condition and the linear growth condition. Therefore, the existing results cannot be applied to many important nonlinear NSFDEs. The main aim of this paper is to remove the linear growth condition and establish a Khasminskii-type test for nonlinear NSFDEs. New criteria not only cover a wide class of highly nonlinear NSFDEs but they can also be verified much more easily than the classical criteria. Finally, several examples are given to illustrate main results.

  19. Stability and synchronization control of stochastic neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Wuneng; Zhou, Liuwei; Tong, Dongbing

    2016-01-01

    This book reports on the latest findings in the study of Stochastic Neural Networks (SNN). The book collects the novel model of the disturbance driven by Levy process, the research method of M-matrix, and the adaptive control method of the SNN in the context of stability and synchronization control. The book will be of interest to university researchers, graduate students in control science and engineering and neural networks who wish to learn the core principles, methods, algorithms and applications of SNN.

  20. Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G

    2011-01-01

    Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi

  1. Network Analysis with Stochastic Grammars

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-17

    rules N = 0 //non-terminal index clusters = cluster(W) //number of clusters drive the number S productions //cluster function described in text...Essa, “Recognizing multitasked activities from video using stochastic context-free grammar,” AAAI/IAAI, pp. 770–776, 2002. [18] R. Nevatia, T. Zhao

  2. Extending Stochastic Network Calculus to Loss Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Luo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Loss is an important parameter of Quality of Service (QoS. Though stochastic network calculus is a very useful tool for performance evaluation of computer networks, existing studies on stochastic service guarantees mainly focused on the delay and backlog. Some efforts have been made to analyse loss by deterministic network calculus, but there are few results to extend stochastic network calculus for loss analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new parameter named loss factor into stochastic network calculus and then derive the loss bound through the existing arrival curve and service curve via this parameter. We then prove that our result is suitable for the networks with multiple input flows. Simulations show the impact of buffer size, arrival traffic, and service on the loss factor.

  3. Stochastic analysis of biochemical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, David F

    2015-01-01

    This book focuses on counting processes and continuous-time Markov chains motivated by examples and applications drawn from chemical networks in systems biology.  The book should serve well as a supplement for courses in probability and stochastic processes.  While the material is presented in a manner most suitable for students who have studied stochastic processes up to and including martingales in continuous time, much of the necessary background material is summarized in the Appendix. Students and Researchers with a solid understanding of calculus, differential equations, and elementary probability and who are well-motivated by the applications will find this book of interest.    David F. Anderson is Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Wisconsin and Thomas G. Kurtz is Emeritus Professor in the Departments of Mathematics and Statistics at that university. Their research is focused on probability and stochastic processes with applications in biology and other ar...

  4. Robust stability for stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, H. S.; Lv, Z. W.; Wei, G. L.

    2008-02-01

    In this paper, the asymptotic stability is considered for a class of uncertain stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with time delays and parameter uncertainties. The delays are time-invariant and the uncertainties are norm-bounded that enter into all network parameters. The aim of this paper is to establish easily verifiable conditions under which the delayed neural network is robustly asymptotically stable in the mean square for all admissible parameter uncertainties. By employing a Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and conducting the stochastic analysis, a linear matrix inequality matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to derive the stability criteria. The proposed criteria can be easily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria.

  5. Global stability of stochastic high-order neural networks with discrete and distributed delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zidong; Fang Jianan; Liu Xiaohui

    2008-01-01

    High-order neural networks can be considered as an expansion of Hopfield neural networks, and have stronger approximation property, faster convergence rate, greater storage capacity, and higher fault tolerance than lower-order neural networks. In this paper, the global asymptotic stability analysis problem is considered for a class of stochastic high-order neural networks with discrete and distributed time-delays. Based on an Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the stochastic stability analysis theory, several sufficient conditions are derived, which guarantee the global asymptotic convergence of the equilibrium point in the mean square. It is shown that the stochastic high-order delayed neural networks under consideration are globally asymptotically stable in the mean square if two linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) are feasible, where the feasibility of LMIs can be readily checked by the Matlab LMI toolbox. It is also shown that the main results in this paper cover some recently published works. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed global stability criteria

  6. Applications of stochastic geometry in image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lieshout, van M.N.M.; Kendall, W.S.; Molchanov, I.S.

    2009-01-01

    A discussion is given of various stochastic geometry models (random fields, sequential object processes, polygonal field models) which can be used in intermediate and high-level image analysis. Two examples are presented of actual image analysis problems (motion tracking in video,

  7. International Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Zolatarev, Vladimir

    1993-01-01

    The subject of this book is a new direction in the field of probability theory and mathematical statistics which can be called "stability theory": it deals with evaluating the effects of perturbing initial probabilistic models and embraces quite varied subtopics: limit theorems, queueing models, statistical inference, probability metrics, etc. The contributions are original research articles developing new ideas and methods of stability analysis.

  8. Stochastic analysis for finance with simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Choe, Geon Ho

    2016-01-01

    This book is an introduction to stochastic analysis and quantitative finance; it includes both theoretical and computational methods. Topics covered are stochastic calculus, option pricing, optimal portfolio investment, and interest rate models. Also included are simulations of stochastic phenomena, numerical solutions of the Black–Scholes–Merton equation, Monte Carlo methods, and time series. Basic measure theory is used as a tool to describe probabilistic phenomena. The level of familiarity with computer programming is kept to a minimum. To make the book accessible to a wider audience, some background mathematical facts are included in the first part of the book and also in the appendices. This work attempts to bridge the gap between mathematics and finance by using diagrams, graphs and simulations in addition to rigorous theoretical exposition. Simulations are not only used as the computational method in quantitative finance, but they can also facilitate an intuitive and deeper understanding of theoret...

  9. Stability of Equilibrium Points of Fractional Difference Equations with Stochastic Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaikhet Leonid

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available It is supposed that the fractional difference equation , has an equilibrium point and is exposed to additive stochastic perturbations type of that are directly proportional to the deviation of the system state from the equilibrium point . It is shown that known results in the theory of stability of stochastic difference equations that were obtained via V. Kolmanovskii and L. Shaikhet general method of Lyapunov functionals construction can be successfully used for getting of sufficient conditions for stability in probability of equilibrium points of the considered stochastic fractional difference equation. Numerous graphical illustrations of stability regions and trajectories of solutions are plotted.

  10. Mean Square Exponential Stability of Stochastic Switched System with Interval Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manlika Rajchakit

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with mean square exponential stability of switched stochastic system with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, but not necessary to be differentiable. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton’s formula, a switching rule for the mean square exponential stability of switched stochastic system with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the mean square exponential stability of the switched stochastic system are first established in terms of LMIs. Numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained result.

  11. The kinetic theory and stability of a stochastic plasma with respect to low frequency perturbations and magnetospheric convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurricane, O.A.

    1994-09-01

    In this dissertation, a new linear Vlasov kinetic theory is developed for calculating the plasma response to perturbing electromagnetic fields in cases where the particle dynamics are stochastic; for modes with frequencies less than the typical particle bounce frequency. A variational form is arrived at which allows one to properly perform a stability analysis for a stochastic plasma. In the case of stochastic dynamics, the authors demonstrate that the plasma responds to the flux tube volume average of the perturbing potentials as opposed to the usual case of adiabatic dynamics where plasma responds to the bounce average of the perturbed potentials. They show that for the stochastic plasma, the kinetic variational form maps into the Bernstein energy principle if the perturbation frequency is large compared to all drift frequencies, the perpendicular wavelength is large compared to the Larmor radius, and vanishing of the potentials associated with the parallel electric field are all assumed. By explicit minimization of the energy principle, it is established that the stochastic plasma is always less stable than an adiabatic plasma. Lastly, the effect of strictly enforcing the quasi-neutrality (QN) condition upon a gyro-kinetic type stability analysis is explored. From simple mathematical considerations, it is shown that when the QN condition is imposed convective type modes that are equipotentials along magnetic field lines are created that alter the stability properties of the plasma. The pertinent modifications to the Bernstein energy principle are given

  12. Delay-enhanced stability and stochastic resonance in perception bistability under non-Gaussian noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Tao; Zeng, Chunhua; Liu, Ruifen; Wang, Hua; Mei, Dongcheng

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the effect of time delay in an attractor network model of perception bistability driven by non-Gaussian noise. Using delay Langevin and Fokker–Planck approaches, the theoretical analysis of the model is presented. It is found that the mean first-passage time (MFPT) as a function of the time delay exhibits a maximum, which is identified as the characteristic of the delay-enhanced stability of the system. This is different to the case of noise-enhanced stability. The non-Gaussian noise-enhanced stability of the system is also analyzed. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as a function of the noise intensity exhibits a maximum. This maximum implies the identifying characteristic of stochastic resonance (SR), and the time delay and non-Gaussian noise can enhance the SR phenomenon. (paper)

  13. PC analysis of stochastic differential equations driven by Wiener noise

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier; Knio, Omar

    2015-01-01

    A polynomial chaos (PC) analysis with stochastic expansion coefficients is proposed for stochastic differential equations driven by additive or multiplicative Wiener noise. It is shown that for this setting, a Galerkin formalism naturally leads

  14. Stabilization and destabilization effects of the electric field on stochastic precipitate pattern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lagzi, István; Izsak, F.

    2004-01-01

    Stabilization and destabilization effects of an applied electric field on the Liesegang pattern formation in low concentration gradient were studied with numerical model simulations. In the absence of an electric field pattern formation exhibits increasingly stochastic behaviour as the initial

  15. Existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for stochastic cellular neural networks with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Zaitang; Yang Qigui

    2009-01-01

    The paper considers the problems of existence of quadratic mean almost periodic and global exponential stability for stochastic cellular neural networks with delays. By employing the Holder's inequality and fixed points principle, we present some new criteria ensuring existence and uniqueness of a quadratic mean almost periodic and global exponential stability. These criteria are important in signal processing and the design of networks. Moreover, these criteria are also applied in others stochastic biological neural systems.

  16. Stochastic simulation algorithms and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Asmussen, Soren

    2007-01-01

    Sampling-based computational methods have become a fundamental part of the numerical toolset of practitioners and researchers across an enormous number of different applied domains and academic disciplines. This book provides a broad treatment of such sampling-based methods, as well as accompanying mathematical analysis of the convergence properties of the methods discussed. The reach of the ideas is illustrated by discussing a wide range of applications and the models that have found wide usage. The first half of the book focuses on general methods, whereas the second half discusses model-specific algorithms. Given the wide range of examples, exercises and applications students, practitioners and researchers in probability, statistics, operations research, economics, finance, engineering as well as biology and chemistry and physics will find the book of value.

  17. Survival Analysis of a Nonautonomous Logistic Model with Stochastic Perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Lu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking white noise into account, a stochastic nonautonomous logistic model is proposed and investigated. Sufficient conditions for extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, stochastic permanence, and global asymptotic stability are established. Moreover, the threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulink graphics to illustrate our main results.

  18. Stochastic analysis of an ecosystem of two competing species

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ecosystem; competing species; stochastic model; Monte Carlo .... probability density p(g) of the grass density for the same system but for different initial states .... Li Q C, Lin Y K 1995 New stochastic theory for bridge stability in turbulent flow, II.

  19. Symbolic Computing in Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamiński Marcin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim is to present recent developments in applications of symbolic computing in probabilistic and stochastic analysis, and this is done using the example of the well-known MAPLE system. The key theoretical methods discussed are (i analytical derivations, (ii the classical Monte-Carlo simulation approach, (iii the stochastic perturbation technique, as well as (iv some semi-analytical approaches. It is demonstrated in particular how to engage the basic symbolic tools implemented in any system to derive the basic equations for the stochastic perturbation technique and how to make an efficient implementation of the semi-analytical methods using an automatic differentiation and integration provided by the computer algebra program itself. The second important illustration is probabilistic extension of the finite element and finite difference methods coded in MAPLE, showing how to solve boundary value problems with random parameters in the environment of symbolic computing. The response function method belongs to the third group, where interference of classical deterministic software with the non-linear fitting numerical techniques available in various symbolic environments is displayed. We recover in this context the probabilistic structural response in engineering systems and show how to solve partial differential equations including Gaussian randomness in their coefficients.

  20. SBAT. A stochastic BPMN analysis tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Jacobsen, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents SBAT, a tool framework for the modelling and analysis of complex business workflows. SBAT is applied to analyse an example from the Danish baked goods industry. Based upon the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language for business process modelling, we describe...... a formalised variant of this language extended to support the addition of intention preserving stochastic branching and parameterised reward annotations. Building on previous work, we detail the design of SBAT, a software tool which allows for the analysis of BPMN models. Within SBAT, properties of interest...

  1. Stability of numerical method for semi-linear stochastic pantograph differential equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract As a particular expression of stochastic delay differential equations, stochastic pantograph differential equations have been widely used in nonlinear dynamics, quantum mechanics, and electrodynamics. In this paper, we mainly study the stability of analytical solutions and numerical solutions of semi-linear stochastic pantograph differential equations. Some suitable conditions for the mean-square stability of an analytical solution are obtained. Then we proved the general mean-square stability of the exponential Euler method for a numerical solution of semi-linear stochastic pantograph differential equations, that is, if an analytical solution is stable, then the exponential Euler method applied to the system is mean-square stable for arbitrary step-size h > 0 $h>0$ . Numerical examples further illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

  2. Conference on Stochastic Analysis and Related Topics

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, Jonathon

    2017-01-01

    The articles in this collection are a sampling of some of the research presented during the conference “Stochastic Analysis and Related Topics”, held in May of 2015 at Purdue University in honor of the 60th birthday of Rodrigo Bañuelos. A wide variety of topics in probability theory is covered in these proceedings, including heat kernel estimates, Malliavin calculus, rough paths differential equations, Lévy processes, Brownian motion on manifolds, and spin glasses, among other topics.

  3. ℋ∞ constant gain state feedback stabilization of stochastic hybrid systems with Wiener process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. K. Boukas

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the stabilization problem of the class of continuous-time linear stochastic hybrid systems with Wiener process. The ℋ∞ state feedback stabilization problem is treated. A state feedback controller with constant gain that does not require access to the system mode is designed. LMI-based conditions are developed to design the state feedback controller with constant gain that stochastically stabilizes the studied class of systems and, at the same time, achieve the disturbance rejection of a desired level. The minimum disturbance rejection is also determined. Numerical examples are given to show the usefulness of the proposed results.

  4. Weak Second Order Explicit Stabilized Methods for Stiff Stochastic Differential Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Abdulle, Assyr

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a new family of explicit integrators for stiff Itô stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of weak order two. These numerical methods belong to the class of one-step stabilized methods with extended stability domains and do not suffer from the step size reduction faced by standard explicit methods. The family is based on the standard second order orthogonal Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev (ROCK2) methods for deterministic problems. The convergence, meansquare, and asymptotic stability properties of the methods are analyzed. Numerical experiments, including applications to nonlinear SDEs and parabolic stochastic partial differential equations are presented and confirm the theoretical results. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  5. Weak Second Order Explicit Stabilized Methods for Stiff Stochastic Differential Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Abdulle, Assyr; Vilmart, Gilles; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a new family of explicit integrators for stiff Itô stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of weak order two. These numerical methods belong to the class of one-step stabilized methods with extended stability domains and do not suffer

  6. Almost Surely Asymptotic Stability of Exact and Numerical Solutions for Neutral Stochastic Pantograph Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhua Yu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the almost surely asymptotic stability of exact solutions to neutral stochastic pantograph equations (NSPEs, and sufficient conditions are obtained. Based on these sufficient conditions, we show that the backward Euler method (BEM with variable stepsize can preserve the almost surely asymptotic stability. Numerical examples are demonstrated for illustration.

  7. Error analysis of stochastic gradient descent ranking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong; Tang, Yi; Li, Luoqing; Yuan, Yuan; Li, Xuelong; Tang, Yuanyan

    2013-06-01

    Ranking is always an important task in machine learning and information retrieval, e.g., collaborative filtering, recommender systems, drug discovery, etc. A kernel-based stochastic gradient descent algorithm with the least squares loss is proposed for ranking in this paper. The implementation of this algorithm is simple, and an expression of the solution is derived via a sampling operator and an integral operator. An explicit convergence rate for leaning a ranking function is given in terms of the suitable choices of the step size and the regularization parameter. The analysis technique used here is capacity independent and is novel in error analysis of ranking learning. Experimental results on real-world data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in ranking tasks, which verifies the theoretical analysis in ranking error.

  8. Globally Asymptotic Stability of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems with Time-Varying Delays via Output Feedback Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingzhu Song

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We address the problem of globally asymptotic stability for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems with time-varying delays. By the backstepping method and Lyapunov theory, we design a linear output feedback controller recursively based on the observable linearization for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems with time-varying delays to guarantee that the closed-loop system is globally asymptotically stable in probability. In particular, we extend the deterministic nonlinear system to stochastic nonlinear systems with time-varying delays. Finally, an example and its simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results.

  9. Robust stability for uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2008-07-01

    In this Letter, by utilizing the Lyapunov functional and combining with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we analyze the global asymptotic stability of uncertain stochastic fuzzy Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. A new class of uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays has been studied and sufficient conditions have been derived to obtain conservative result in stochastic settings. The developed results are more general than those reported in the earlier literatures. In addition, the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using LMI toolbox in MATLAB.

  10. Robust stability for uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, by utilizing the Lyapunov functional and combining with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we analyze the global asymptotic stability of uncertain stochastic fuzzy Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. A new class of uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays has been studied and sufficient conditions have been derived to obtain conservative result in stochastic settings. The developed results are more general than those reported in the earlier literatures. In addition, the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using LMI toolbox in MATLAB

  11. Influences of plasticity on a sheet pile phased stochastic FE analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, A. de; Waarts, P.H.

    2000-01-01

    The paper deals with the stochastic analysis of the stability of a sheet pile soil structure. Most areas in the Netherlands have layered soil conditions. The decisive parameter in the nonlinear FE analysis is the behaviour of the soil. For layered soil conditions, the correct modelling of the

  12. Introduction to stochastic analysis and Malliavin calculus

    CERN Document Server

    Prato, Giuseppe

    2014-01-01

    This volume presents an introductory course on differential stochastic equations and Malliavin calculus. The material of the book has grown out of a series of courses delivered at the Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa (and also at the Trento and Funchal Universities) and has been refined over several years of teaching experience in the subject. The lectures are addressed to a reader who is familiar with basic notions of measure theory and functional analysis. The first part is devoted to the Gaussian measure in a separable Hilbert space, the Malliavin derivative, the construction of the Brownian motion and Itô's formula. The second part deals with differential stochastic equations and their connection with parabolic problems. The third part provides an introduction to the Malliavin calculus. Several applications are given, notably the Feynman-Kac, Girsanov and Clark-Ocone formulae, the Krylov-Bogoliubov and Von Neumann theorems. In this third edition several small improvements are added and a new section devo...

  13. Stability results for stochastic delayed recurrent neural networks with discrete and distributed delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guiling; Li, Dingshi; Shi, Lin; van Gaans, Onno; Verduyn Lunel, Sjoerd

    2018-03-01

    We present new conditions for asymptotic stability and exponential stability of a class of stochastic recurrent neural networks with discrete and distributed time varying delays. Our approach is based on the method using fixed point theory, which do not resort to any Liapunov function or Liapunov functional. Our results neither require the boundedness, monotonicity and differentiability of the activation functions nor differentiability of the time varying delays. In particular, a class of neural networks without stochastic perturbations is also considered. Examples are given to illustrate our main results.

  14. Stochastic exponential stability of the delayed reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Linshan; Zhang Zhe; Wang Yangfan

    2008-01-01

    Some criteria for the global stochastic exponential stability of the delayed reaction-diffusion recurrent neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters are presented. The jumping parameters considered here are generated from a continuous-time discrete-state homogeneous Markov process, which are governed by a Markov process with discrete and finite state space. By employing a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is developed to establish some easy-to-test criteria of global exponential stability in the mean square for the stochastic neural networks. The criteria are computationally efficient, since they are in the forms of some linear matrix inequalities

  15. Environmental Noise Could Promote Stochastic Local Stability of Behavioral Diversity Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiu-Deng; Li, Cong; Lessard, Sabin; Tao, Yi

    2018-05-01

    In this Letter, we investigate stochastic stability in a two-phenotype evolutionary game model for an infinite, well-mixed population undergoing discrete, nonoverlapping generations. We assume that the fitness of a phenotype is an exponential function of its expected payoff following random pairwise interactions whose outcomes randomly fluctuate with time. We show that the stochastic local stability of a constant interior equilibrium can be promoted by the random environmental noise even if the system may display a complicated nonlinear dynamics. This result provides a new perspective for a better understanding of how environmental fluctuations may contribute to the evolution of behavioral diversity.

  16. Elements of stochastic calculus and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Stroock, Daniel W

    2018-01-01

    This book gives a somewhat unconventional introduction to stochastic analysis. Although most of the material covered here has appeared in other places, this book attempts to explain the core ideas on which that material is based. As a consequence, the presentation is more an extended mathematical essay than a ``definition, lemma, theorem'' text. In addition, it includes several topics that are not usually treated elsewhere. For example, Wiener's theory of homogeneous chaos is discussed, Stratovich integration is given a novel development and applied to derive Wong and Zakai's approximation theorem, and examples are given of the application of Malliavin's calculus to partial differential equations. Each chapter concludes with several exercises, some of which are quite challenging. The book is intended for use by advanced graduate students and research mathematicians who may be familiar with many of the topics but want to broaden their understanding of them.

  17. Global exponential stability of neutral high-order stochastic Hopfield neural networks with Markovian jump parameters and mixed time delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Haiying; Du, Qiaosheng; Kang, Xibing

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, a class of neutral high-order stochastic Hopfield neural networks with Markovian jump parameters and mixed time delays is investigated. The jumping parameters are modeled as a continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. At first, the existence of equilibrium point for the addressed neural networks is studied. By utilizing the Lyapunov stability theory, stochastic analysis theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, new delay-dependent stability criteria are presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee the neural networks to be globally exponentially stable in the mean square. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results. © 2013 ISA. Published by ISA. All rights reserved.

  18. On stability and monotonicity requirements of finite difference approximations of stochastic conservation laws with random viscosity

    KAUST Repository

    Pettersson, Per

    2013-05-01

    The stochastic Galerkin and collocation methods are used to solve an advection-diffusion equation with uncertain and spatially varying viscosity. We investigate well-posedness, monotonicity and stability for the extended system resulting from the Galerkin projection of the advection-diffusion equation onto the stochastic basis functions. High-order summation-by-parts operators and weak imposition of boundary conditions are used to prove stability of the semi-discrete system.It is essential that the eigenvalues of the resulting viscosity matrix of the stochastic Galerkin system are positive and we investigate conditions for this to hold. When the viscosity matrix is diagonalizable, stochastic Galerkin and stochastic collocation are similar in terms of computational cost, and for some cases the accuracy is higher for stochastic Galerkin provided that monotonicity requirements are met. We also investigate the total spatial operator of the semi-discretized system and its impact on the convergence to steady-state. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  19. On stability and monotonicity requirements of finite difference approximations of stochastic conservation laws with random viscosity

    KAUST Repository

    Pettersson, Per; Doostan, Alireza; Nordströ m, Jan

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic Galerkin and collocation methods are used to solve an advection-diffusion equation with uncertain and spatially varying viscosity. We investigate well-posedness, monotonicity and stability for the extended system resulting from the Galerkin projection of the advection-diffusion equation onto the stochastic basis functions. High-order summation-by-parts operators and weak imposition of boundary conditions are used to prove stability of the semi-discrete system.It is essential that the eigenvalues of the resulting viscosity matrix of the stochastic Galerkin system are positive and we investigate conditions for this to hold. When the viscosity matrix is diagonalizable, stochastic Galerkin and stochastic collocation are similar in terms of computational cost, and for some cases the accuracy is higher for stochastic Galerkin provided that monotonicity requirements are met. We also investigate the total spatial operator of the semi-discretized system and its impact on the convergence to steady-state. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  20. PC analysis of stochastic differential equations driven by Wiener noise

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2015-03-01

    A polynomial chaos (PC) analysis with stochastic expansion coefficients is proposed for stochastic differential equations driven by additive or multiplicative Wiener noise. It is shown that for this setting, a Galerkin formalism naturally leads to the definition of a hierarchy of stochastic differential equations governing the evolution of the PC modes. Under the mild assumption that the Wiener and uncertain parameters can be treated as independent random variables, it is also shown that the Galerkin formalism naturally separates parametric uncertainty and stochastic forcing dependences. This enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the process variance, and consequently identify contributions arising from the uncertainty in parameters, the stochastic forcing, and a coupled term. Insight gained from this decomposition is illustrated in light of implementation to simplified linear and non-linear problems; the case of a stochastic bifurcation is also considered.

  1. Safety Analysis of Stochastic Dynamical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth, Christoffer; Wisniewski, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a method for verifying the safety of a stochastic system. In particular, we show how to compute the largest set of initial conditions such that a given stochastic system is safe with probability p. To compute the set of initial conditions we rely on the moment method that via...... that shows how the p-safe initial set is computed numerically....

  2. Polynomial asymptotic stability of damped stochastic differential equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Appleby

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies the polynomial convergence of solutions of a scalar nonlinear It\\^{o} stochastic differential equation\\[dX(t = -f(X(t\\,dt + \\sigma(t\\,dB(t\\] where it is known, {\\it a priori}, that $\\lim_{t\\rightarrow\\infty} X(t=0$, a.s. The intensity of the stochastic perturbation $\\sigma$ is a deterministic, continuous and square integrable function, which tends to zero more quickly than a polynomially decaying function. The function $f$ obeys $\\lim_{x\\rightarrow 0}\\mbox{sgn}(xf(x/|x|^\\beta = a$, for some $\\beta>1$, and $a>0$.We study two asymptotic regimes: when $\\sigma$ tends to zero sufficiently quickly the polynomial decay rate of solutions is the same as for the deterministic equation (when $\\sigma\\equiv0$. When $\\sigma$ decays more slowly, a weaker almost sure polynomial upper bound on the decay rate of solutions is established. Results which establish the necessity for $\\sigma$ to decay polynomially in order to guarantee the almost sure polynomial decay of solutions are also proven.

  3. Stabilizing simulations of complex stochastic representations for quantum dynamical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perret, C; Petersen, W P, E-mail: wpp@math.ethz.ch [Seminar for Applied Mathematics, ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-03-04

    Path integral representations of quantum dynamics can often be formulated as stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In a series of papers, Corney and Drummond (2004 Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 260401), Deuar and Drummond (2001 Comput. Phys. Commun. 142 442-5), Drummond and Gardnier (1980 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 13 2353-68), Gardiner and Zoller (2004 Quantum Noise: A Handbook of Markovian and Non-Markovian Quantum Stochastic Methods with Applications to Quantum Optics (Springer Series in Synergetics) 3rd edn (Berlin: Springer)) and Gilchrist et al (1997 Phys. Rev. A 55 3014-32) and their collaborators have derived SDEs from coherent states representations for density matrices. Computationally, these SDEs are attractive because they seem simple to simulate. They can be quite unstable, however. In this paper, we consider some of the instabilities and propose a few remedies. Particularly, because the variances of the simulated paths typically grow exponentially, the processes become de-localized in relatively short times. Hence, the issues of boundary conditions and stable integration methods become important. We use the Bose-Einstein Hamiltonian as an example. Our results reveal that it is possible to significantly extend integration times and show the periodic structure of certain functionals.

  4. 11th International Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Zolotarev, Vladimir

    1989-01-01

    Traditionally the Stability seminar, organized in Moscow but held in different locations, has dealt with a spectrum of topics centering around characterization problems and their stability, limit theorems, probabil- ity metrics and theoretical robustness. This volume likewise focusses on these main topics in a series of original and recent research articles.

  5. Stability of the trivial solution for linear stochastic differential equations with Poisson white noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigoriu, Mircea; Samorodnitsky, Gennady

    2004-01-01

    Two methods are considered for assessing the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution of linear stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson white noise, interpreted as the formal derivative of a compound Poisson process. The first method attempts to extend a result for diffusion processes satisfying linear stochastic differential equations to the case of linear equations with Poisson white noise. The developments for the method are based on Ito's formula for semimartingales and Lyapunov exponents. The second method is based on a geometric ergodic theorem for Markov chains providing a criterion for the asymptotic stability of the solution of linear stochastic differential equations with Poisson white noise. Two examples are presented to illustrate the use and evaluate the potential of the two methods. The examples demonstrate limitations of the first method and the generality of the second method

  6. Fuzzy Stabilization for Nonlinear Discrete Ship Steering Stochastic Systems Subject to State Variance and Passivity Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Jer Chang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available For nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems, a fuzzy controller design methodology is developed in this paper subject to state variance constraint and passivity constraint. According to fuzzy model based control technique, the nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems considered in this paper are represented by the discrete-time Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models with multiplicative noise. Employing Lyapunov stability theory, upper bound covariance control theory, and passivity theory, some sufficient conditions are derived to find parallel distributed compensation based fuzzy controllers. In order to solve these sufficient conditions, an iterative linear matrix inequality algorithm is applied based on the linear matrix inequality technique. Finally, the fuzzy stabilization problem for nonlinear discrete ship steering stochastic systems is investigated in the numerical example to illustrate the feasibility and validity of proposed fuzzy controller design method.

  7. Stochastic Fatigue Analysis of Jacket Type Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigurdsson, Gudfinnur

    In this paper, a stochastic reliability assessment for jacket type offshore structures subjected to wave loads in deep water environments is outlined. In the reliability assessment, structural and loading uncertainties are taken into account by means of some stochastic variables. To estimate stat...... statistical measures of structural stress variations the modal spectral analysis method is applied....

  8. Stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker Planck equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Rami Reddy, G.; Srividya, A.; Verma, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation describes the time evolution of the probability density function of the velocity of a particle, and can be generalized to other observables as well. It is also known as the Kolmogorov forward equation (diffusion). Hence, for any process, which evolves with time, the probability density function as a function of time can be represented with Fokker-Planck equation. In stochastic reliability analysis one is more interested in finding out the reliability or failure probability of the components or structures as a function of time rather than instantaneous failure probabilities. In this analysis the variables are represented with random processes instead of random variables. A random processes can be either stationary or non stationary. If the random process is stationary then the failure probability doesn't change with time where as in the case of non stationary processes the failure probability changes with time. In the present paper Fokker Planck equations have been used to find out the probability density function of the non stationary random processes. In this paper a flow chart has been provided which describes step by step process for carrying out stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker-Planck equations. As a first step one has to identify the failure function as a function of random processes. Then one has to solve the Fokker-Planck equation for each random process. In this paper the Fokker-Planck equation has been solved by using Finite difference method. As a result one gets the probability density values of the random process in the sample space as well as time space. Later at each time step appropriate probability distribution has to be identified based on the available probability density values. For checking the better fitness of the data Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of fit test has been performed. In this way one can find out the distribution of the random process at each time step. Once one has the probability distribution

  9. Lyapunov functionals and stability of stochastic difference equations

    CERN Document Server

    Shaikhet, Leonid

    2011-01-01

    This book offers a general method of Lyapunov functional construction which lets researchers analyze the degree to which the stability properties of differential equations are preserved in their difference analogues. Includes examples from physical systems.

  10. Asymptotic analysis for functional stochastic differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Bao, Jianhai; Yuan, Chenggui

    2016-01-01

    This brief treats dynamical systems that involve delays and random disturbances. The study is motivated by a wide variety of systems in real life in which random noise has to be taken into consideration and the effect of delays cannot be ignored. Concentrating on such systems that are described by functional stochastic differential equations, this work focuses on the study of large time behavior, in particular, ergodicity. This brief is written for probabilists, applied mathematicians, engineers, and scientists who need to use delay systems and functional stochastic differential equations in their work. Selected topics from the brief can also be used in a graduate level topics course in probability and stochastic processes.

  11. Computational singular perturbation analysis of stochastic chemical systems with stiffness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lijin; Han, Xiaoying; Cao, Yanzhao; Najm, Habib N.

    2017-04-01

    Computational singular perturbation (CSP) is a useful method for analysis, reduction, and time integration of stiff ordinary differential equation systems. It has found dominant utility, in particular, in chemical reaction systems with a large range of time scales at continuum and deterministic level. On the other hand, CSP is not directly applicable to chemical reaction systems at micro or meso-scale, where stochasticity plays an non-negligible role and thus has to be taken into account. In this work we develop a novel stochastic computational singular perturbation (SCSP) analysis and time integration framework, and associated algorithm, that can be used to not only construct accurately and efficiently the numerical solutions to stiff stochastic chemical reaction systems, but also analyze the dynamics of the reduced stochastic reaction systems. The algorithm is illustrated by an application to a benchmark stochastic differential equation model, and numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the construction.

  12. Dynamic analysis of stochastic transcription cycles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire V Harper

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In individual mammalian cells the expression of some genes such as prolactin is highly variable over time and has been suggested to occur in stochastic pulses. To investigate the origins of this behavior and to understand its functional relevance, we quantitatively analyzed this variability using new mathematical tools that allowed us to reconstruct dynamic transcription rates of different reporter genes controlled by identical promoters in the same living cell. Quantitative microscopic analysis of two reporter genes, firefly luciferase and destabilized EGFP, was used to analyze the dynamics of prolactin promoter-directed gene expression in living individual clonal and primary pituitary cells over periods of up to 25 h. We quantified the time-dependence and cyclicity of the transcription pulses and estimated the length and variation of active and inactive transcription phases. We showed an average cycle period of approximately 11 h and demonstrated that while the measured time distribution of active phases agreed with commonly accepted models of transcription, the inactive phases were differently distributed and showed strong memory, with a refractory period of transcriptional inactivation close to 3 h. Cycles in transcription occurred at two distinct prolactin-promoter controlled reporter genes in the same individual clonal or primary cells. However, the timing of the cycles was independent and out-of-phase. For the first time, we have analyzed transcription dynamics from two equivalent loci in real-time in single cells. In unstimulated conditions, cells showed independent transcription dynamics at each locus. A key result from these analyses was the evidence for a minimum refractory period in the inactive-phase of transcription. The response to acute signals and the result of manipulation of histone acetylation was consistent with the hypothesis that this refractory period corresponded to a phase of chromatin remodeling which significantly

  13. Stochastic analysis in discrete and continuous settings with normal martingales

    CERN Document Server

    Privault, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    This volume gives a unified presentation of stochastic analysis for continuous and discontinuous stochastic processes, in both discrete and continuous time. It is mostly self-contained and accessible to graduate students and researchers having already received a basic training in probability. The simultaneous treatment of continuous and jump processes is done in the framework of normal martingales; that includes the Brownian motion and compensated Poisson processes as specific cases. In particular, the basic tools of stochastic analysis (chaos representation, gradient, divergence, integration by parts) are presented in this general setting. Applications are given to functional and deviation inequalities and mathematical finance.

  14. Stochastic time series analysis of hydrology data for water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    The prediction to current publication of stochastic time series analysis in hydrology and seasonal stage. The different statistical tests for predicting the hydrology time series on Thomas-Fiering model. The hydrology time series of flood flow have accept a great deal of consideration worldwide. The concentration of stochastic process areas of time series analysis method are expanding with develop concerns about seasonal periods and global warming. The recent trend by the researchers for testing seasonal periods in the hydrologic flowseries using stochastic process on Thomas-Fiering model. The present article proposed to predict the seasonal periods in hydrology using Thomas-Fiering model.

  15. Numerical analysis of systems of ordinary and stochastic differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Artemiev, S S

    1997-01-01

    This text deals with numerical analysis of systems of both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. It covers numerical solution problems of the Cauchy problem for stiff ordinary differential equations (ODE) systems by Rosenbrock-type methods (RTMs).

  16. Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Cheon, Sooyoung; Liang, Faming

    2009-01-01

    in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method

  17. Stochastic Wake Modelling Based on POD Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bastine

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, large eddy simulation data is analysed to investigate a new stochastic modeling approach for the wake of a wind turbine. The data is generated by the large eddy simulation (LES model PALM combined with an actuator disk with rotation representing the turbine. After applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, three different stochastic models for the weighting coefficients of the POD modes are deduced resulting in three different wake models. Their performance is investigated mainly on the basis of aeroelastic simulations of a wind turbine in the wake. Three different load cases and their statistical characteristics are compared for the original LES, truncated PODs and the stochastic wake models including different numbers of POD modes. It is shown that approximately six POD modes are enough to capture the load dynamics on large temporal scales. Modeling the weighting coefficients as independent stochastic processes leads to similar load characteristics as in the case of the truncated POD. To complete this simplified wake description, we show evidence that the small-scale dynamics can be captured by adding to our model a homogeneous turbulent field. In this way, we present a procedure to derive stochastic wake models from costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD calculations or elaborated experimental investigations. These numerically efficient models provide the added value of possible long-term studies. Depending on the aspects of interest, different minimalized models may be obtained.

  18. SBOAT: A Stochastic BPMN Analysis and Optimisation Tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Jacobsen, Peter

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a description of a tool development framework, called SBOAT, for the quantitative analysis of graph based process modelling languages based upon the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language, extended with intention preserving stochastic branching and parame......In this paper we present a description of a tool development framework, called SBOAT, for the quantitative analysis of graph based process modelling languages based upon the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN) language, extended with intention preserving stochastic branching...

  19. Stochastic resonance and stability for a stochastic metapopulation system subjected to non-Gaussian noise and multiplicative periodic signal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang-Kang, Wang; Xian-Bin, Liu; Yu, Zhou

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the stability and stochastic resonance (SR) phenomenon induced by the multiplicative periodic signal for a metapopulation system driven by the additive Gaussian noise, multiplicative non-Gaussian noise and noise correlation time is investigated. By using the fast descent method, unified colored noise approximation and McNamara and Wiesenfeld’s SR theory, the analytical expressions of the stationary probability distribution function and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are derived in the adiabatic limit. Via numerical calculations, each effect of the addictive noise intensity, the multiplicative noise intensity and the correlation time upon the steady state probability distribution function and the SNR is discussed, respectively. It is shown that multiplicative, additive noises and the departure parameter from the Gaussian noise can all destroy the stability of the population system. However, the noise correlation time can consolidate the stability of the system. On the other hand, the correlation time always plays an important role in motivating the SR and enhancing the SNR. Under different parameter conditions of the system, the multiplicative, additive noises and the departure parameter can not only excite SR phenomenon, but also restrain the SR phenomenon, which demonstrates the complexity of different noises upon the nonlinear system. (paper)

  20. International Conference on Modern Problems of Stochastic Analysis and Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book brings together the latest findings in the area of stochastic analysis and statistics. The individual chapters cover a wide range of topics from limit theorems, Markov processes, nonparametric methods, acturial science, population dynamics, and many others. The volume is dedicated to Valentin Konakov, head of the International Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Contributions were prepared by the participants of the international conference of the international conference “Modern problems of stochastic analysis and statistics”, held at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow from May 29 - June 2, 2016. It offers a valuable reference resource for researchers and graduate students interested in modern stochastics.

  1. Stabilization of memory States by stochastic facilitating synapses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Paul

    2013-12-06

    Bistability within a small neural circuit can arise through an appropriate strength of excitatory recurrent feedback. The stability of a state of neural activity, measured by the mean dwelling time before a noise-induced transition to another state, depends on the neural firing-rate curves, the net strength of excitatory feedback, the statistics of spike times, and increases exponentially with the number of equivalent neurons in the circuit. Here, we show that such stability is greatly enhanced by synaptic facilitation and reduced by synaptic depression. We take into account the alteration in times of synaptic vesicle release, by calculating distributions of inter-release intervals of a synapse, which differ from the distribution of its incoming interspike intervals when the synapse is dynamic. In particular, release intervals produced by a Poisson spike train have a coefficient of variation greater than one when synapses are probabilistic and facilitating, whereas the coefficient of variation is less than one when synapses are depressing. However, in spite of the increased variability in postsynaptic input produced by facilitating synapses, their dominant effect is reduced synaptic efficacy at low input rates compared to high rates, which increases the curvature of neural input-output functions, leading to wider regions of bistability in parameter space and enhanced lifetimes of memory states. Our results are based on analytic methods with approximate formulae and bolstered by simulations of both Poisson processes and of circuits of noisy spiking model neurons.

  2. Containment vessel stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harstead, G.A.; Morris, N.F.; Unsal, A.I.

    1983-01-01

    The stability analysis for a steel containment shell is presented herein. The containment is a freestanding shell consisting of a vertical cylinder with a hemispherical dome. It is stiffened by large ring stiffeners and relatively small longitudinal stiffeners. The containment vessel is subjected to both static and dynamic loads which can cause buckling. These loads must be combined prior to their use in a stability analysis. The buckling loads were computed with the aid of the ASME Code case N-284 used in conjunction with general purpose computer codes and in-house programs. The equations contained in the Code case were used to compute the knockdown factors due to shell imperfections. After these knockdown factors were applied to the critical stress states determined by freezing the maximum dynamic stresses and combining them with other static stresses, a linear bifurcation analysis was carried out with the aid of the BOSOR4 program. Since the containment shell contained large penetrations, the Code case had to be supplemented by a local buckling analysis of the shell area surrounding the largest penetration. This analysis was carried out with the aid of the NASTRAN program. Although the factor of safety against buckling obtained in this analysis was satisfactory, it is claimed that the use of the Code case knockdown factors are unduly conservative when applied to the analysis of buckling around penetrations. (orig.)

  3. Stochastic Stability for Time-Delay Markovian Jump Systems with Sector-Bounded Nonlinearities and More General Transition Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Ye

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with delay-dependent stochastic stability for time-delay Markovian jump systems (MJSs with sector-bounded nonlinearities and more general transition probabilities. Different from the previous results where the transition probability matrix is completely known, a more general transition probability matrix is considered which includes completely known elements, boundary known elements, and completely unknown ones. In order to get less conservative criterion, the state and transition probability information is used as much as possible to construct the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and deal with stability analysis. The delay-dependent sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities to guarantee the stability of systems. Finally, numerical examples are exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. New exponential stability criteria for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakthivel, R; Samidurai, R; Anthoni, S M

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we study the global exponential stability of time-delayed stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses and Markovian jumping parameters. A generalized activation function is considered, and traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of activation functions are removed. We obtain a new set of sufficient conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensures the global exponential stability of the unique equilibrium point for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses. The Lyapunov function method with the Ito differential rule is employed for achieving the required result. Moreover, a numerical example is provided to show that the proposed result improves the allowable upper bound of delays over some existing results in the literature.

  5. New exponential stability criteria for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakthivel, R.; Samidurai, R.; Anthoni, S. M.

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, we study the global exponential stability of time-delayed stochastic bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses and Markovian jumping parameters. A generalized activation function is considered, and traditional assumptions on the boundedness, monotony and differentiability of activation functions are removed. We obtain a new set of sufficient conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which ensures the global exponential stability of the unique equilibrium point for stochastic BAM neural networks with impulses. The Lyapunov function method with the Itô differential rule is employed for achieving the required result. Moreover, a numerical example is provided to show that the proposed result improves the allowable upper bound of delays over some existing results in the literature.

  6. Analysis of dynamic regimes in stochastically forced Kaldor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Ryashko, Lev

    2015-01-01

    We consider the business cycle Kaldor model forced by random noise. Detailed parametric analysis of deterministic system is carried out and zones of coexisting stable equilibrium and stable limit cycle are found. Noise-induced transitions between these attractors are studied using stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains method. Critical values of noise intensity corresponding to noise-induced transitions “equilibrium → cycle” and “cycle → equilibrium” are estimated. Dominants in combined stochastic regimes are discussed.

  7. Stochastic Analysis of Gaussian Processes via Fredholm Representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommi Sottinen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We show that every separable Gaussian process with integrable variance function admits a Fredholm representation with respect to a Brownian motion. We extend the Fredholm representation to a transfer principle and develop stochastic analysis by using it. We show the convenience of the Fredholm representation by giving applications to equivalence in law, bridges, series expansions, stochastic differential equations, and maximum likelihood estimations.

  8. T-Stability of the Heun Method and Balanced Method for Solving Stochastic Differential Delay Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolin Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the T-stability of the Heun method and balanced method for solving stochastic differential delay equations (SDDEs. Two T-stable conditions of the Heun method are obtained for two kinds of linear SDDEs. Moreover, two conditions under which the balanced method is T-stable are obtained for two kinds of linear SDDEs. Some numerical examples verify the theoretical results proposed.

  9. Stability Criterion of Linear Stochastic Systems Subject to Mixed H2/Passivity Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheung-Chieh Ku

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The H2 control scheme and passivity theory are applied to investigate the stability criterion of continuous-time linear stochastic system subject to mixed performance. Based on the stochastic differential equation, the stochastic behaviors can be described as multiplicative noise terms. For the considered system, the H2 control scheme is applied to deal with the problem on minimizing output energy. And the asymptotical stability of the system can be guaranteed under desired initial conditions. Besides, the passivity theory is employed to constrain the effect of external disturbance on the system. Moreover, the Itô formula and Lyapunov function are used to derive the sufficient conditions which are converted into linear matrix inequality (LMI form for applying convex optimization algorithm. Via solving the sufficient conditions, the state feedback controller can be established such that the asymptotical stability and mixed performance of the system are achieved in the mean square. Finally, the synchronous generator system is used to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed design method.

  10. Convergence and stability of the exponential Euler method for semi-linear stochastic delay differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the strong convergence and exponential stability in mean square of the exponential Euler method to semi-linear stochastic delay differential equations (SLSDDEs). It is proved that the exponential Euler approximation solution converges to the analytic solution with the strong order [Formula: see text] to SLSDDEs. On the one hand, the classical stability theorem to SLSDDEs is given by the Lyapunov functions. However, in this paper we study the exponential stability in mean square of the exact solution to SLSDDEs by using the definition of logarithmic norm. On the other hand, the implicit Euler scheme to SLSDDEs is known to be exponentially stable in mean square for any step size. However, in this article we propose an explicit method to show that the exponential Euler method to SLSDDEs is proved to share the same stability for any step size by the property of logarithmic norm.

  11. Convergence and stability of the exponential Euler method for semi-linear stochastic delay differential equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the strong convergence and exponential stability in mean square of the exponential Euler method to semi-linear stochastic delay differential equations (SLSDDEs. It is proved that the exponential Euler approximation solution converges to the analytic solution with the strong order 1 2 $\\frac{1}{2}$ to SLSDDEs. On the one hand, the classical stability theorem to SLSDDEs is given by the Lyapunov functions. However, in this paper we study the exponential stability in mean square of the exact solution to SLSDDEs by using the definition of logarithmic norm. On the other hand, the implicit Euler scheme to SLSDDEs is known to be exponentially stable in mean square for any step size. However, in this article we propose an explicit method to show that the exponential Euler method to SLSDDEs is proved to share the same stability for any step size by the property of logarithmic norm.

  12. Mean square stabilization and mean square exponential stabilization of stochastic BAM neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, Zhiyong; Zhang, He; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Hua; Lu, Guichen

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •This paper introduces a non-conservative Lyapunov functional. •The achieved results impose non-conservative and can be widely used. •The conditions are easily checked by the Matlab LMI Tool Box. The desired state feedback controller can be well represented by the conditions. -- Abstract: This paper addresses the mean square exponential stabilization problem of stochastic bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters and time-varying delays. By establishing a proper Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional and combining with LMIs technique, several sufficient conditions are derived for ensuring exponential stabilization in the mean square sense of such stochastic BAM neural networks. In addition, the achieved results are not difficult to verify for determining the mean square exponential stabilization of delayed BAM neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters and impose less restrictive and less conservative than the ones in previous papers. Finally, numerical results are given to show the effectiveness and applicability of the achieved results

  13. Stochastic description of cascade size effects on phase stability under irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G.; Bellon, P.

    1988-01-01

    Cascade size may affect phase stability under irradiation because of two distinct contributions: the replacement to displacement cross section ratio depends on the deposited energy density; ballistic jumps which tend to disorder ordere compounds occur by bursts (of size b), while thermal jumps which restored long range order occur one by one. The latter effect cannot be handled by standard rate theory. A stochastic treatment of the problem, based on a Fokker Planck approximation of the relevant master equation is summarized. It is shown that the possible values of the long range order parameter under irradiation are not affected by the size b of the bursts, but that the respective stability of the former is b dependent. As a consequence, the stability diagram of phases under irradiation varies with b. Such a diagram is computed for the Ni 4 Mo system where three structures are competing: the disordered solid solution, D1 a and DO 23 . A broadening by 100K of the stability domain of the short range ordered structure to the expense of the long range ordered one is predicted when increasing b from 1 to 100. The stochastic potentials introduced in the present treatment are by no means free energies of some constrained state. They can however be computed in a mean field type approximation. 23 refs

  14. Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. F. Wei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.

  15. Conditional stability in determination of initial data for stochastic parabolic equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Ganghua

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we solve two kinds of inverse problems in determination of the initial data for stochastic parabolic equations. One is determination of the initial data by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary, the second one is determination of the initial data by internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. We obtain conditional stability for the two kinds of inverse problems. To prove the results, we estimate the initial data by a terminal observation near the initial time, then we estimate this terminal observation by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary or internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. To achieve those goals, we derive several new Carleman estimates for stochastic parabolic equations in this paper. (paper)

  16. Conditional stability in determination of initial data for stochastic parabolic equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ganghua

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we solve two kinds of inverse problems in determination of the initial data for stochastic parabolic equations. One is determination of the initial data by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary, the second one is determination of the initial data by internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. We obtain conditional stability for the two kinds of inverse problems. To prove the results, we estimate the initial data by a terminal observation near the initial time, then we estimate this terminal observation by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary or internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. To achieve those goals, we derive several new Carleman estimates for stochastic parabolic equations in this paper.

  17. Speeding up stochastic analysis of bulk water supply systems using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-10-22

    Oct 22, 2013 ... It is possible to analyse the reliability of municipal storage tanks through stochastic analysis, in which the user demand, fire water demand and pipe failures are simulated using Monte Carlo analysis. While this technique could in principle be used to find the optimal size of a municipal storage tank, ...

  18. Speeding up stochastic analysis of bulk water supply systems using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is possible to analyse the reliability of municipal storage tanks through stochastic analysis, in which the user demand, fire water demand and pipe failures are simulated using Monte Carlo analysis. While this technique could in principle be used to find the optimal size of a municipal storage tank, in practice the high ...

  19. Stochastic analysis of uncertain thermal characteristic of foundation soils surrounding the crude oil pipeline in permafrost regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Tao; Zhou, Guoqing; Wang, Jianzhou; Zhao, Xiaodong

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The influence of stochastic properties and conditions on permafrost foundation was investigated. • A stochastic analysis for the uncertain thermal characteristic of crude oil pipe is presented. • The mean temperature and standard deviation of foundation soils are obtained and analyzed. • Average standard deviation and maximum standard deviation of foundation soils increase with time. - Abstract: For foundation soils surrounding the crude oil pipeline in permafrost regions, the soil properties and the upper boundary conditions are stochastic because of complex geological processes and changeable atmospheric environment. The conventional finite element analysis of thermal characteristics for crude oil pipeline is always deterministic, rather than taking stochastic parameters and conditions into account. This study investigated the stochastic influence of an underground crude oil pipeline on the thermal stability of the permafrost foundation on the basis of a stochastic analysis model and the stochastic finite element method. A stochastic finite element program is compiled by Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software, and the random temperature fields of foundation soils surrounding a crude oil pipeline in a permafrost region are obtained and analyzed by Neumann stochastic finite element method (NSFEM). The results provide a new way to predict the thermal effects of the crude oil pipeline in permafrost regions, and it shows that the standard deviations in temperature increase with time when considering the stochastic effect of soil properties and boundary conditions, which imply that the results of conventional deterministic analysis may be far from the true value, even if in different seasons. It can improve our understanding of the random temperature field of foundation soils surrounding the crude oil pipeline and provide a theoretical basis for actual engineering design in permafrost regions.

  20. Analysis of stochastic effects in Kaldor-type business cycle discrete model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Sysolyatina, Anna

    2016-07-01

    We study nonlinear stochastic phenomena in the discrete Kaldor model of business cycles. A numerical parametric analysis of stochastically forced attractors (equilibria, closed invariant curves, discrete cycles) of this model is performed using the stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A spatial arrangement of random states in stochastic attractors is modeled by confidence domains. The phenomenon of noise-induced transitions ;chaos-order; is discussed.

  1. Stochastic analysis in production process and ecology under uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Bieda, Bogusław

    2014-01-01

    The monograph addresses a problem of stochastic analysis based on the uncertainty assessment by simulation and application of this method in ecology and steel industry under uncertainty. The first chapter defines the Monte Carlo (MC) method and random variables in stochastic models. Chapter two deals with the contamination transport in porous media. Stochastic approach for Municipal Solid Waste transit time contaminants modeling using MC simulation has been worked out. The third chapter describes the risk analysis of the waste to energy facility proposal for Konin city, including the financial aspects. Environmental impact assessment of the ArcelorMittal Steel Power Plant, in Kraków - in the chapter four - is given. Thus, four scenarios of the energy mix production processes were studied. Chapter five contains examples of using ecological Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) - a relatively new method of environmental impact assessment - which help in preparing pro-ecological strategy, and which can lead to reducing t...

  2. Stochastic analysis/synthesis using sinusoidal atoms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kristoffer

    2008-01-01

    This work proposes a method for re-synthesizing music for use in perceptual experiments regarding structural changes and in music creation. Atoms are estimated from music audio, modelled in a stochastic model, and re-synthesized from the model pa- rameters. The atoms are found by splitting...... sinusoids into short segments, and modelled into amplitude and envelope shape, frequency, time and duration. A simple model for creating envelopes with percussive, sustained or crescendo shape is presented. Single variable and joint probability density functions are created from the atom parameters and used...... to re-create sounds with the same distribution of the atoms parameters. A novel method for visualization music, the musigram, permits a better understanding of the re- synthesized sounds....

  3. Existence, uniqueness, and stability of stochastic neutral functional differential equations of Sobolev-type

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xuetao; Zhu, Quanxin, E-mail: zqx22@126.com [School of Mathematical Sciences and Institute of Mathematics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu (China)

    2015-12-15

    In this paper, we are mainly concerned with a class of stochastic neutral functional differential equations of Sobolev-type with Poisson jumps. Under two different sets of conditions, we establish the existence of the mild solution by applying the Leray-Schauder alternative theory and the Sadakovskii’s fixed point theorem, respectively. Furthermore, we use the Bihari’s inequality to prove the Osgood type uniqueness. Also, the mean square exponential stability is investigated by applying the Gronwall inequality. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the theory results.

  4. Response spectrum analysis of a stochastic seismic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Koji; Sakata, Masaru; Takemoto, Shinichiro.

    1990-01-01

    The stochastic response spectrum approach is presented for predicting the dynamic behavior of structures to earthquake excitation expressed by a random process, one of whose sample functions can be regarded as a recorded strong-motion earthquake accelerogram. The approach consists of modeling recorded ground motion by a random process and the root-mean-square response (rms) analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom system by using the moment equations method. The stochastic response spectrum is obtained as a plot of the maximum rms response versus the natural period of the system and is compared with the conventional response spectrum. (author)

  5. Stochastic sensitivity analysis and Langevin simulation for neural network learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koda, Masato

    1997-01-01

    A comprehensive theoretical framework is proposed for the learning of a class of gradient-type neural networks with an additive Gaussian white noise process. The study is based on stochastic sensitivity analysis techniques, and formal expressions are obtained for stochastic learning laws in terms of functional derivative sensitivity coefficients. The present method, based on Langevin simulation techniques, uses only the internal states of the network and ubiquitous noise to compute the learning information inherent in the stochastic correlation between noise signals and the performance functional. In particular, the method does not require the solution of adjoint equations of the back-propagation type. Thus, the present algorithm has the potential for efficiently learning network weights with significantly fewer computations. Application to an unfolded multi-layered network is described, and the results are compared with those obtained by using a back-propagation method

  6. Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, V G

    2011-01-01

    This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

  7. Stochastic processes analysis in nuclear reactor using ARMA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavaljevski, N.

    1990-01-01

    The analysis of ARMA model derived from general stochastic state equations of nuclear reactor is given. The dependence of ARMA model parameters on the main physical characteristics of RB nuclear reactor in Vinca is presented. Preliminary identification results are presented, observed discrepancies between theory and experiment are explained and the possibilities of identification improvement are anticipated. (author)

  8. Institutions and Bank Performance; A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, B.W.; Meesters, A.

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the impact of institutions on bank efficiency and technology, using a stochastic frontier analysis of a data set of 7,959 banks across 136 countries over 10 years. The results confirm the importance of well-developed institutions for the efficient operation of commercial

  9. Institutions and bank performance : A stochastic frontier analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lensink, Robert; Meesters, Aljar

    This article investigates the impact of institutions on bank efficiency and technology, using a stochastic frontier analysis of a data set of 7,959 banks across 136 countries over 10 years. The results confirm the importance of well-developed institutions for the efficient operation of commercial

  10. Efficiency in the Community College Sector: Stochastic Frontier Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agasisti, Tommaso; Belfield, Clive

    2017-01-01

    This paper estimates technical efficiency scores across the community college sector in the United States. Using stochastic frontier analysis and data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System for 2003-2010, we estimate efficiency scores for 950 community colleges and perform a series of sensitivity tests to check for robustness. We…

  11. Stochastic biological response to radiation. Comprehensive analysis of gene expression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Tohru; Hirabayashi, Yoko

    2012-01-01

    Authors explain that the radiation effect on biological system is stochastic along the law of physics, differing from chemical effect, using instances of Cs-137 gamma-ray (GR) and benzene (BZ) exposures to mice and of resultant comprehensive analyses of gene expression. Single GR irradiation is done with Gamma Cell 40 (CSR) to C57BL/6 or C3H/He mouse at 0, 0.6 and 3 Gy. BE is given orally at 150 mg/kg/day for 5 days x 2 weeks. Bone marrow cells are sampled 1 month after the exposure. Comprehensive gene expression is analyzed by Gene Chip Mouse Genome 430 2.0 Array (Affymetrix) and data are processed by programs like case normalization, statistics, network generation, functional analysis etc. GR irradiation brings about changes of gene expression, which are classifiable in common genes variable commonly on the dose change and stochastic genes variable stochastically within each dose: e.g., with Welch-t-test, significant differences are between 0/3 Gy (dose-specific difference, 455 pbs (probe set), in stochastic 2113 pbs), 0/0.6 Gy (267 in 1284 pbs) and 0.6/3 Gy (532 pbs); and with one-way analysis of variation (ANOVA) and hierarchial/dendrographic analyses, 520 pbs are shown to involve the dose-dependent 226 and dose-specific 294 pbs. It is also shown that at 3 Gy, expression of common genes are rather suppressed, including those related to the proliferation/apoptosis of B/T cells, and of stochastic genes, related to cell division/signaling. Ven diagram of the common genes of above 520 pbs, stochastic 2113 pbs at 3 Gy and 1284 pbs at 0.6 Gy shows the overlapping genes 29, 2 and 4, respectively, indicating only 35 pbs are overlapping in total. Network analysis of changes by GR shows the rather high expression of genes around hub of cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) at 0.6 Gy, and rather variable expression around CREB hub/suppressed expression of kinesin hub at 3 Gy; in the network by BZ exposure, unchanged or low expression around p53 hub and suppression

  12. Exponential mean-square stability of two classes of theta Milstein methods for stochastic delay differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouz, Omid Farkhondeh; Ahmadian, Davood; Milev, Mariyan

    2017-12-01

    This paper establishes exponential mean square stability of two classes of theta Milstein methods, namely split-step theta Milstein (SSTM) method and stochastic theta Milstein (STM) method, for stochastic differential delay equations (SDDEs). We consider the SDDEs problem under a coupled monotone condition on drift and diffusion coefficients, as well as a necessary linear growth condition on the last term of theta Milstein method. It is proved that the SSTM method with θ ∈ [0, ½] can recover the exponential mean square stability of the exact solution with some restrictive conditions on stepsize, but for θ ∈ (½, 1], we proved that the stability results hold for any stepsize. Then, based on the stability results of SSTM method, we examine the exponential mean square stability of the STM method and obtain the similar stability results to that of the SSTM method. In the numerical section the figures show thevalidity of our claims.

  13. Stochastic dynamic analysis of marine risers considering Gaussian system uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Pinghe; Li, Jun; Hao, Hong; Xia, Yong

    2018-03-01

    This paper performs the stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers with material uncertainties, i.e. in the mass density and elastic modulus, by using Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and model reduction technique. These uncertainties are assumed having Gaussian distributions. The random mass density and elastic modulus are represented by using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion. The Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion is adopted to represent the vibration response because the covariance of the output is unknown. Model reduction based on the Iterated Improved Reduced System (IIRS) technique is applied to eliminate the PC coefficients of the slave degrees of freedom to reduce the dimension of the stochastic system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is conducted to obtain the reference response statistics. Two numerical examples are studied in this paper. The response statistics from the proposed approach are compared with those from MCS. It is noted that the computational time is significantly reduced while the accuracy is kept. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach for stochastic dynamic response analysis of marine risers.

  14. Stochastic seismic floor response analysis method for various damping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Y.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, M.; Kanda, J.

    1991-01-01

    A study using the stochastic seismic response analysis method which is applicable for the estimation of floor response spectra is carried out. It is pointed out as a shortcoming in this stochastic seismic response analysis method, that the method tends to overestimate floor response spectra for low damping systems, e.g. 1% of the critical damping ratio. An investigation on the cause of the shortcoming is carried out and a number of improvements in this method were also made to the original method by taking correlation of successive peaks in a response time history into account. The application of the improved method to a typical BWR reactor building is carried out. The resultant floor response spectra are compared with those obtained by deterministic time history analysis. Floor response spectra estimated by the improved method consistently cover the response spectra obtained by the time history analysis for various damping ratios. (orig.)

  15. pth moment exponential stability of stochastic memristor-based bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fen; Chen, Yuanlong; Liu, Meichun

    2018-02-01

    Stochastic memristor-based bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with time delays play an increasingly important role in the design and implementation of neural network systems. Under the framework of Filippov solutions, the issues of the pth moment exponential stability of stochastic memristor-based BAM neural networks are investigated. By using the stochastic stability theory, Itô's differential formula and Young inequality, the criteria are derived. Meanwhile, with Lyapunov approach and Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, we derive some sufficient conditions for the mean square exponential stability of the above systems. The obtained results improve and extend previous works on memristor-based or usual neural networks dynamical systems. Four numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Stochastic stability assessment of a semi-free piston engine generator concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigezi, T. N.; Gonzalez Anaya, J. A.; Dunne, J. F.

    2016-09-01

    Small engines, as power generators with low-noise and vibration characteristics, are needed in two niche application areas: as electric vehicle range extenders and as domestic micro Combined Heat and Power systems. A recent semi-free piston design known as the AMOCATIC generator fully meets this requirement. The engine potentially allows for high energy conversion efficiencies at resonance derived from having a mass and spring assembly. As with free-piston engines in general, stability and control of piston motion has been cited as the prime challenge limiting the technology's widespread application. Using physical principles, we derive in this paper two important results: an energy balance criterion and a related general stability criterion for a semi-free piston engine. Control is achieved by systematically designing a Proportional Integral (PI) controller using a control-oriented engine model for which a specific stability condition is stated. All results are presented in closed form throughout the paper. Simulation results under stochastic pressure conditions show that the proposed energy balance, stability criterion, and PI controller, operate as predicted to yield stable engine operation at fixed compression ratio.

  17. Stochastic stability assessment of a semi-free piston engine generator concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kigezi, T N; Anaya, J A Gonzalez; Dunne, J F

    2016-01-01

    Small engines, as power generators with low-noise and vibration characteristics, are needed in two niche application areas: as electric vehicle range extenders and as domestic micro Combined Heat and Power systems. A recent semi-free piston design known as the AMOCATIC generator fully meets this requirement. The engine potentially allows for high energy conversion efficiencies at resonance derived from having a mass and spring assembly. As with free-piston engines in general, stability and control of piston motion has been cited as the prime challenge limiting the technology's widespread application. Using physical principles, we derive in this paper two important results: an energy balance criterion and a related general stability criterion for a semi-free piston engine. Control is achieved by systematically designing a Proportional Integral (PI) controller using a control-oriented engine model for which a specific stability condition is stated. All results are presented in closed form throughout the paper. Simulation results under stochastic pressure conditions show that the proposed energy balance, stability criterion, and PI controller, operate as predicted to yield stable engine operation at fixed compression ratio. (paper)

  18. Error performance analysis in K-tier uplink cellular networks using a stochastic geometric approach

    KAUST Repository

    Afify, Laila H.; Elsawy, Hesham; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2015-01-01

    -in-Distribution approach that utilizes stochastic geometric tools to account for the network geometry in the performance characterization. Different from the other stochastic geometry models adopted in the literature, the developed analysis accounts for important

  19. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  20. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, María

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  1. An h-adaptive stochastic collocation method for stochastic EMC/EMI analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Yücel, Abdulkadir C.

    2010-07-01

    The analysis of electromagnetic compatibility and interference (EMC/EMI) phenomena is often fraught by randomness in a system\\'s excitation (e.g., the amplitude, phase, and location of internal noise sources) or configuration (e.g., the routing of cables, the placement of electronic systems, component specifications, etc.). To bound the probability of system malfunction, fast and accurate techniques to quantify the uncertainty in system observables (e.g., voltages across mission-critical circuit elements) are called for. Recently proposed stochastic frameworks [1-2] combine deterministic electromagnetic (EM) simulators with stochastic collocation (SC) methods that approximate system observables using generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPC) [3] (viz. orthogonal polynomials spanning the entire random domain) to estimate their statistical moments and probability density functions (pdfs). When constructing gPC expansions, the EM simulator is used solely to evaluate system observables at collocation points prescribed by the SC-gPC scheme. The frameworks in [1-2] therefore are non-intrusive and straightforward to implement. That said, they become inefficient and inaccurate for system observables that vary rapidly or are discontinuous in the random variables (as their representations may require very high-order polynomials). © 2010 IEEE.

  2. Stochastic Consequence Analysis for Waste Leaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HEY, B.E.

    2000-01-01

    This analysis evaluates the radiological consequences of potential Hanford Tank Farm waste transfer leaks. These include ex-tank leaks into structures, underneath the soil, and exposed to the atmosphere. It also includes potential misroutes, tank overflow

  3. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis

    2015-01-01

    Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the

  4. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgios Arampatzis

    Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of

  5. On the stability and dynamics of stochastic spiking neuron models: Nonlinear Hawkes process and point process GLMs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhard, Felipe; Deger, Moritz; Truccolo, Wilson

    2017-02-01

    Point process generalized linear models (PP-GLMs) provide an important statistical framework for modeling spiking activity in single-neurons and neuronal networks. Stochastic stability is essential when sampling from these models, as done in computational neuroscience to analyze statistical properties of neuronal dynamics and in neuro-engineering to implement closed-loop applications. Here we show, however, that despite passing common goodness-of-fit tests, PP-GLMs estimated from data are often unstable, leading to divergent firing rates. The inclusion of absolute refractory periods is not a satisfactory solution since the activity then typically settles into unphysiological rates. To address these issues, we derive a framework for determining the existence and stability of fixed points of the expected conditional intensity function (CIF) for general PP-GLMs. Specifically, in nonlinear Hawkes PP-GLMs, the CIF is expressed as a function of the previous spike history and exogenous inputs. We use a mean-field quasi-renewal (QR) approximation that decomposes spike history effects into the contribution of the last spike and an average of the CIF over all spike histories prior to the last spike. Fixed points for stationary rates are derived as self-consistent solutions of integral equations. Bifurcation analysis and the number of fixed points predict that the original models can show stable, divergent, and metastable (fragile) dynamics. For fragile models, fluctuations of the single-neuron dynamics predict expected divergence times after which rates approach unphysiologically high values. This metric can be used to estimate the probability of rates to remain physiological for given time periods, e.g., for simulation purposes. We demonstrate the use of the stability framework using simulated single-neuron examples and neurophysiological recordings. Finally, we show how to adapt PP-GLM estimation procedures to guarantee model stability. Overall, our results provide a

  6. Stochastic analysis of complex reaction networks using binomial moment equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzel, Baruch; Biham, Ofer

    2012-09-01

    The stochastic analysis of complex reaction networks is a difficult problem because the number of microscopic states in such systems increases exponentially with the number of reactive species. Direct integration of the master equation is thus infeasible and is most often replaced by Monte Carlo simulations. While Monte Carlo simulations are a highly effective tool, equation-based formulations are more amenable to analytical treatment and may provide deeper insight into the dynamics of the network. Here, we present a highly efficient equation-based method for the analysis of stochastic reaction networks. The method is based on the recently introduced binomial moment equations [Barzel and Biham, Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 150602 (2011)]. The binomial moments are linear combinations of the ordinary moments of the probability distribution function of the population sizes of the interacting species. They capture the essential combinatorics of the reaction processes reflecting their stoichiometric structure. This leads to a simple and transparent form of the equations, and allows a highly efficient and surprisingly simple truncation scheme. Unlike ordinary moment equations, in which the inclusion of high order moments is prohibitively complicated, the binomial moment equations can be easily constructed up to any desired order. The result is a set of equations that enables the stochastic analysis of complex reaction networks under a broad range of conditions. The number of equations is dramatically reduced from the exponential proliferation of the master equation to a polynomial (and often quadratic) dependence on the number of reactive species in the binomial moment equations. The aim of this paper is twofold: to present a complete derivation of the binomial moment equations; to demonstrate the applicability of the moment equations for a representative set of example networks, in which stochastic effects play an important role.

  7. Basic aspects of stochastic reliability analysis for redundancy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerre, P.

    1989-01-01

    Much confusion has been created by trying to establish common cause failure (CCF) as an extra phenomenon which has to be treated with extra methods in reliability and data analysis. This paper takes another approach which can be roughly described by the statement that dependent failure is the basic phenomenon, while 'independent failure' refers to a special limiting case, namely the perfectly homogeneous population. This approach is motivated by examples demonstrating that common causes do not lead to dependent failure, so far as physical dependencies like shared components are excluded, and that stochastic dependencies are not related to common causes. The possibility to select more than one failure behaviour from an inhomogeneous population is identified as an additional random process which creates stochastic dependence. However, this source of randomness is usually treated in the deterministic limit, which destroys dependence and hence yields incorrect multiple failure frequencies for redundancy structures, thus creating the need for applying corrective CCF models. (author)

  8. Stochastic thermal stress analysis of clad cylindrical fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, P.R.

    1975-01-01

    After a review of deterministic elastic thermal stress analysis by means of the displacement method for a cylindrical system in which the temperature distribution is not only radially variable but azimuthally and axially variable also, a method is shown for the determination of the statistical moments of the stress components when (a) the outer boundary of the cladding is a stochastic quantity, and (b) the uncertainties in the elastic and thermal constants of the materials and in the magnitude of the heat generation term are taken into account. A typical model is proposed for describing the statistics of the outer radius of the cladding which is a stochastic variable owing to uncertainties produced by the extrusion process. The theory is illustrated by means of a simple example by examining a meaningful reliability index and the relative importance of each of the uncertainties. (Auth.)

  9. Stochastic analysis of radionuclide migration in saturated-unsaturated soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawanishi, Moto

    1988-01-01

    In Japan, LLRW (low level radioactive wastes) generated from nuclear power plants shall be started to store concentrically in the Shimokita site from 1990, and those could be transformed into land disposal if the positive safety is confirmed. Therefore, it is hoped that the safety assessment method shall be successed for the land disposal of LLRW. In this study, a stochastic model to analyze the radionuclide migration in saturated-unsaturated soils was constructed. The principal results are summarized as follows. 1) We presented a generalized idea for the modeling of the radionuclide migration in saturated-unsaturated soils as an advective-dispersion phenomena followed by the decay of radionuclides and those adsorption/desorption in soils. 2) Based on the radionuclide migration model mentioned above, we developed a stochastic analysis model on radionuclide migration in saturated-unsaturated soils. 3) From the comparison between the simulated results and the exact solution on a few simple one-dimensional advective-dispersion problems of radionuclides, the good validity of this model was confirmed. 4) From the comparison between the simulated results by this model and the experimental results of radionuclide migration in a one-dimensional unsaturated soil column with rainfall, the good applicability was shown. 5) As the stochastic model such as this has several advantages that it is easily able to represent the image of physical phenomena and has basically no numerical dissipation, this model should be more applicable to the analysis of the complicated radionuclide migration in saturated-unsaturated soils. (author)

  10. On parametric domain for asymptotic stability with probability one of zero solution of linear Ito stochastic differential equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phan Thanh An; Phan Le Na; Ngo Quoc Chung

    2004-05-01

    We describe a practical implementation for finding parametric domain for asymptotic stability with probability one of zero solution of linear Ito stochastic differential equations based on Korenevskij and Mitropolskij's sufficient condition and our sufficient conditions. Numerical results show that all of these sufficient conditions are crucial in the implementation. (author)

  11. Semi-analytical stochastic analysis of the generalized van der Pol system

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Náprstek, Jiří; Fischer, Cyril

    (2018) ISSN 1802-680X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-01035S Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : stochastic stability * generalized van der Pol system * stochastic averaging * limit cycles Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering OBOR OECD: Construction engineering, Municipal and structural engineering https://www.kme.zcu.cz/acm/acm/article/view/407

  12. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  13. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  14. Moment Lyapunov Exponent and Stochastic Stability of Binary Airfoil under Combined Harmonic and Non-Gaussian Colored Noise Excitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, D. L.; Liu, X. B.

    Both periodic loading and random forces commonly co-exist in real engineering applications. However, the dynamic behavior, especially dynamic stability of systems under parametric periodic and random excitations has been reported little in the literature. In this study, the moment Lyapunov exponent and stochastic stability of binary airfoil under combined harmonic and non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are investigated. The noise is simplified to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process by applying the path-integral method. Via the singular perturbation method, the second-order expansions of the moment Lyapunov exponent are obtained, which agree well with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the effects of the noise and parametric resonance (such as subharmonic resonance and combination additive resonance) on the stochastic stability of the binary airfoil system are discussed.

  15. Stochastic Analysis of Offshore Steel Structures An Analytical Appraisal

    CERN Document Server

    Karadeniz, Halil

    2013-01-01

    Stochastic Analysis of Offshore Steel Structures provides a clear and detailed guide to advanced analysis methods of fixed offshore steel structures using 3D beam finite elements under random wave and earthquake loadings. Advanced and up-to-date research results are coupled with modern analysis methods and essential theoretical information to consider optimal solutions to structural issues. As these methods require and use knowledge of different subject matters, a general introduction to the key areas is provided. This is followed by in-depth explanations supported by design examples, relevant calculations and supplementary material containing related computer programmers. By combining this theoretical and practical approach Stochastic Analysis of Offshore Steel Structures cover a range of key concepts in detail including: ·         The basic principles of standard 3D beam finite elements and special connections, ·         Wave loading - from hydrodynamics to the calculation of wave load...

  16. Stochastic analysis of a novel nonautonomous periodic SIRI epidemic system with random disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weiwei; Meng, Xinzhu

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a new stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic model is formulated. Given that the incidence rates of diseases may change with the environment, we propose a novel type of transmission function. The main aim of this paper is to obtain the thresholds of the stochastic SIRI epidemic model. To this end, we investigate the dynamics of the stochastic system and establish the conditions for extinction and persistence in mean of the disease by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions and using stochastic analysis technique. Furthermore, we show that the stochastic system has at least one nontrivial positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate our results.

  17. Stability in distribution of a stochastic hybrid competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Yu; Yuan, Sanling

    2016-01-01

    Stability in distribution, implying the existence of the invariant probability measure, is an important measure of stochastic hybrid system. However, the effect of Lévy jumps on the stability in distribution is still unclear. In this paper, we consider a n-species competitive Lotka–Volterra model with Lévy jumps under regime-switching. First, we prove the existence of the global positive solution, obtain the upper and lower boundedness. Then, asymptotic stability in distribution as the main result of our paper is derived under some sufficient conditions. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical results and a brief discussion is given.

  18. An efficient parallel stochastic simulation method for analysis of nonviral gene delivery systems

    KAUST Repository

    Kuwahara, Hiroyuki

    2011-01-01

    Gene therapy has a great potential to become an effective treatment for a wide variety of diseases. One of the main challenges to make gene therapy practical in clinical settings is the development of efficient and safe mechanisms to deliver foreign DNA molecules into the nucleus of target cells. Several computational and experimental studies have shown that the design process of synthetic gene transfer vectors can be greatly enhanced by computational modeling and simulation. This paper proposes a novel, effective parallelization of the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) for pharmacokinetic models that characterize the rate-limiting, multi-step processes of intracellular gene delivery. While efficient parallelizations of the SSA are still an open problem in a general setting, the proposed parallel simulation method is able to substantially accelerate the next reaction selection scheme and the reaction update scheme in the SSA by exploiting and decomposing the structures of stochastic gene delivery models. This, thus, makes computationally intensive analysis such as parameter optimizations and gene dosage control for specific cell types, gene vectors, and transgene expression stability substantially more practical than that could otherwise be with the standard SSA. Here, we translated the nonviral gene delivery model based on mass-action kinetics by Varga et al. [Molecular Therapy, 4(5), 2001] into a more realistic model that captures intracellular fluctuations based on stochastic chemical kinetics, and as a case study we applied our parallel simulation to this stochastic model. Our results show that our simulation method is able to increase the efficiency of statistical analysis by at least 50% in various settings. © 2011 ACM.

  19. BWR stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valtonen, K.

    1990-01-01

    The objective of this study has been to examine TVO-I oscillation incident, which occured in February 22.1987 and to find out safety implications of oscillations in ATWS incidents. Calculations have been performed with RAMONA-3B and TRAB codes. RAMONA-3B is a BWR transient analysis code with three-dimencional neutron kinetics and nonequilibrium, nonhomogeneous thermal hydraulics. TRAB code is a one-dimencional BWR transient code which uses methods similar to RAMONA-3B. The results have shown that both codes are capable of analyzing of the oscillation incidents. Both out-of-phase and in-phase oscillations are possible. If the reactor scram fails (ATWS) during oscillations the severe fuel failures are always possible and the reactor core may exceed the prompt criticality

  20. Stochastic stabilization of phenotypic States: the genetic bistable switch as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Marc; Buceta, Javier

    2013-01-01

    We study by means of analytical calculation and stochastic simulations how intrinsic noise modifies the bifurcation diagram of gene regulatory processes that can be effectively described by the Langevin formalism. In a general context, our study raises the intriguing question of how biochemical fluctuations redesign the epigenetic landscape in differentiation processes. We have applied our findings to a general class of regulatory processes that includes the simplest case that displays a bistable behavior and hence phenotypic variability: the genetic auto-activating switch. Thus, we explain why and how the noise promotes the stability of the low-state phenotype of the switch and show that the bistable region is extended when increasing the intensity of the fluctuations. This phenomenology is found in a simple one-dimensional model of the genetic switch as well as in a more detailed model that takes into account the binding of the protein to the promoter region. Altogether, we prescribe the analytical means to understand and quantify the noise-induced modifications of the bifurcation points for a general class of regulatory processes where the genetic bistable switch is included.

  1. Stochastic Bifurcation Analysis of an Elastically Mounted Flapping Airfoil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bose Chandan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper investigates the effects of noisy flow fluctuations on the fluid-structure interaction (FSI behaviour of a span-wise flexible wing modelled as a two degree-of-freedom elastically mounted flapping airfoil. In the sterile flow conditions, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation as the free-stream velocity exceeds a critical limit resulting in a stable limit-cycle oscillation (LCO from a fixed point response. On the other hand, the qualitative dynamics changes from a stochastic fixed point to a random LCO through an intermittent state in the presence of irregular flow fluctuations. The probability density function depicts the most probable system state in the phase space. A phenomenological bifurcation (P-bifurcation analysis based on the transition in the topology associated with the structure of the joint probability density function (pdf of the response variables has been carried out. The joint pdf corresponding to the stochastic fixed point possesses a Dirac delta function like structure with a sharp single peak around zero. As the mean flow speed crosses the critical value, the joint pdf bifurcates to a crater-like structure indicating the occurrence of a P-bifurcation. The intermittent state is characterized by the co-existence of the unimodal as well as the crater like structure.

  2. Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Cheon, Sooyoung

    2009-11-01

    Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Convergence analysis of stochastic hybrid bidirectional associative memory neural networks with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Li; Zhou Qinghua

    2007-01-01

    The stability property of stochastic hybrid bidirectional associate memory (BAM) neural networks with discrete delays is considered. Without assuming the symmetry of synaptic connection weights and the monotonicity and differentiability of activation functions, the delay-independent sufficient conditions to guarantee the exponential stability of the equilibrium solution for such networks are given by using the nonnegative semimartingale convergence theorem

  4. Convergence analysis of stochastic hybrid bidirectional associative memory neural networks with delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Li; Zhou, Qinghua

    2007-10-01

    The stability property of stochastic hybrid bidirectional associate memory (BAM) neural networks with discrete delays is considered. Without assuming the symmetry of synaptic connection weights and the monotonicity and differentiability of activation functions, the delay-independent sufficient conditions to guarantee the exponential stability of the equilibrium solution for such networks are given by using the nonnegative semimartingale convergence theorem.

  5. PATRIMONIAL ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GABRIELA CORINA SLUSARIUC

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Patrimonial analysis of financial stability is realized with the help of some indicator determined on the balance: working capital; required working capital and net treasury. These indicators are determined and presented in evolution at two companies with different situations, and there are given conclusions and suggestions concerning achieving and maintaining the financial equilibrium or initiating corrective measures in time, before the imbalance would take irrecoverable forms.

  6. Numerical Analysis for Stochastic Partial Differential Delay Equations with Jumps

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Yan; Hu, Junhao

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the convergence rate of Euler-Maruyama method for a class of stochastic partial differential delay equations driven by both Brownian motion and Poisson point processes. We discretize in space by a Galerkin method and in time by using a stochastic exponential integrator. We generalize some results of Bao et al. (2011) and Jacob et al. (2009) in finite dimensions to a class of stochastic partial differential delay equations with jumps in infinite dimensions.

  7. Introduction to stochastic analysis integrals and differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mackevicius, Vigirdas

    2013-01-01

    This is an introduction to stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations written in an understandable way for a wide audience, from students of mathematics to practitioners in biology, chemistry, physics, and finances. The presentation is based on the naïve stochastic integration, rather than on abstract theories of measure and stochastic processes. The proofs are rather simple for practitioners and, at the same time, rather rigorous for mathematicians. Detailed application examples in natural sciences and finance are presented. Much attention is paid to simulation diffusion pro

  8. Stochastic analysis of capillary condensation in disordered mesopores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gommes, Cedric J; Roberts, Anthony P

    2018-05-08

    Most mesoporous materials of practical interest are inherently disordered, which has a significant impact on the condensation and evaporation of vapours in their pores. Traditionally, the effect of disorder is theoretically analyzed in a perturbative approach whereby slight elements of disorder (constriction, corrugation) are added to geometrically ideal pores. We propose an alternative approach, which consists of using a stochastic geometrical model to describe both the porous material and the condensate within the pores. This is done through a multiphase generalisation of the standard Gaussian random field model of disordered materials. The model parameters characterising the condensate provide a low-dimensional approximation of its configuration space, and we use a Derjaguin-Broekhoff-de Boer approximation to calculate the free-energy landscape. Our analysis notably questions the existence of vapour-like metastable states in realistically disordered mesoporous materials. Beyond capillary condensation, our general methodology is applicable to a broad array of confined phenomena.

  9. Robustness Analysis of Hybrid Stochastic Neural Networks with Neutral Terms and Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunmei Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the robustness of global exponential stability of hybrid stochastic neural networks subject to neutral terms and time-varying delays simultaneously. Given globally exponentially stable hybrid stochastic neural networks, we characterize the upper bounds of contraction coefficients of neutral terms and time-varying delays by using the transcendental equation. Moreover, we prove theoretically that, for any globally exponentially stable hybrid stochastic neural networks, if additive neutral terms and time-varying delays are smaller than the upper bounds arrived, then the perturbed neural networks are guaranteed to also be globally exponentially stable. Finally, a numerical simulation example is given to illustrate the presented criteria.

  10. Stochastic stability of mechanical systems under renewal jump process parametric excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Larsen, Jesper Winther

    2005-01-01

    independent, negative exponential distributed variables; hence, the arrival process may be termed as a generalized Erlang renewal process. The excitation process is governed by the stochastic equation driven by two independent Poisson processes, with different parameters. If the response in a single mode...... is investigated, the problem is governed in the state space by two stochastic equations, because the stochastic equation for the excitation process is autonomic. However due to the parametric nature of the excitation, the nonlinear term appears at the right-hand sides of the equations. The equations become linear...... of the stochastic equation governing the natural logarithm of the hyperspherical amplitude process and using the modification of the method wherein the time averaging of the pertinent expressions is replaced by ensemble averaging. It is found that the direct simulation is more suitable and that the asymptotic mean...

  11. Stability, Empirical Estimates and Scenario Generation in Stochastic Optimization - Applications in Finance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaňková, Vlasta

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 6 (2017), s. 1026-1046 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-10331S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stochastic programming * stochastic dominance * empirical estimates * financial applications Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kankova-0485151.pdf

  12. Analysis and reconstruction of stochastic coupled map lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coca, Daniel; Billings, Stephen A.

    2003-01-01

    The Letter introduces a general stochastic coupled lattice map model together with an algorithm to estimate the nodal equations involved based only on a small set of observable variables and in the presence of stochastic perturbations. More general forms of the Frobenius-Perron and the transfer operators, which describe the evolution of densities under the action of the CML transformation, are derived

  13. Stochastic analysis for Poisson point processes Malliavin calculus, Wiener-Itô chaos expansions and stochastic geometry

    CERN Document Server

    Peccati, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic geometry is the branch of mathematics that studies geometric structures associated with random configurations, such as random graphs, tilings and mosaics. Due to its close ties with stereology and spatial statistics, the results in this area are relevant for a large number of important applications, e.g. to the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of telecommunication networks, geostatistics and image analysis. In recent years – due mainly to the impetus of the authors and their collaborators – a powerful connection has been established between stochastic geometry and the Malliavin calculus of variations, which is a collection of probabilistic techniques based on the properties of infinite-dimensional differential operators. This has led in particular to the discovery of a large number of new quantitative limit theorems for high-dimensional geometric objects. This unique book presents an organic collection of authoritative surveys written by the principal actors in this rapidly evolvi...

  14. Non-fragile robust stabilization and H{sub {infinity}} control for uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Jinhui [Department of Automatic Control, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081 (China)], E-mail: jinhuizhang82@gmail.com; Shi Peng [Faculty of Advanced Technology, University of Glamorgan, Pontypridd CF37 1DL (United Kingdom); ILSCM, School of Science and Engineering, Victoria University, Melbourne, Vic. 8001 (Australia); School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia)], E-mail: pshi@glam.ac.uk; Yang Hongjiu [Department of Automatic Control, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081 (China)], E-mail: yanghongjiu@gmail.com

    2009-12-15

    This paper deals with the problem of non-fragile robust stabilization and H{sub {infinity}} control for a class of uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems. The parametric uncertainties are real time-varying as well as norm bounded. The time-delay factors are unknown and time-varying with known bounds. The aim is to design a memoryless non-fragile state feedback control law such that the closed-loop system is stochastically asymptotically stable in the mean square and the effect of the disturbance input on the controlled output is less than a prescribed level for all admissible parameter uncertainties. New sufficient conditions for the existence of such controllers are presented based on the linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) approach. Numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed techniques.

  15. Exploring Ackermann and LQR stability control of stochastic state-space model of hexacopter equipped with robotic arm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, I. N.; Akkad, M. A. Al; Abramov, I. V.

    2018-05-01

    This paper discusses the control of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for active interaction and manipulation of objects. The manipulator motion with an unknown payload was analysed concerning force and moment disturbances, which influence the mass distribution, and the centre of gravity (CG). Therefore, a general dynamics mathematical model of a hexacopter was formulated where a stochastic state-space model was extracted in order to build anti-disturbance controllers. Based on the compound pendulum method, the disturbances model that simulates the robotic arm with a payload was inserted into the stochastic model. This study investigates two types of controllers in order to study the stability of a hexacopter. A controller based on Ackermann’s method and the other - on the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) approach - were presented. The latter constitutes a challenge for UAV control performance especially with the presence of uncertainties and disturbances.

  16. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Power System with Renewable Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan

    Unlike traditional fossil-fuel based power generation, renewable generation such as wind power relies on uncontrollable prime sources such as wind speed. Wind speed varies stochastically, which to a large extent determines the stochastic behavior of power generation from wind farms...... that such a stochastic model can be used to simulate the effect of load management on the load duration curve. As CHP units are turned on and off by regulating power, CHP generation has discrete output and thus can be modeled by a transition matrix based discrete Markov chain. As the CHP generation has a strong diurnal...

  17. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, Marí a; Le Maitre, Olivier; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity

  18. Convergence and Stability of the Split-Step θ-Milstein Method for Stochastic Delay Hopfield Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Guo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A new splitting method designed for the numerical solutions of stochastic delay Hopfield neural networks is introduced and analysed. Under Lipschitz and linear growth conditions, this split-step θ-Milstein method is proved to have a strong convergence of order 1 in mean-square sense, which is higher than that of existing split-step θ-method. Further, mean-square stability of the proposed method is investigated. Numerical experiments and comparisons with existing methods illustrate the computational efficiency of our method.

  19. A stochastic analysis for a phytoplankton-zooplankton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge, G; Wang, H-L; Xu, J

    2008-01-01

    A simple phytoplankton-zooplankton nonlinear dynamical model was proposed to study the coexistence of all the species and a Hopf bifurcation was observed. In order to study the effect of environmental robustness on this system, we have stochastically perturbed the system with respect to white noise around its positive interior equilibrium. We have observed that the system remains stochastically stable around the positive equilibrium for same parametric values in the deterministic situation

  20. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  1. Technical Efficiency of Thai Manufacturing SMEs: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teerawat Charoenrat

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available AbstractA major motivation of this study is to examine the factors that are the most important in contributing to the relatively poor efficiency performance of Thai manufacturing small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs. The results obtained will be significant in devising effective policies aimed at tackling this poor performance.This paper uses data on manufacturing SMEs in the North-eastern region of Thailand in 2007 as a case study, by applying a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA and a technical inefficiency effects model. The empirical results obtained indicate that the mean technical efficiency of all categories of manufacturing SMEs in theNorth-eastern region is 43%, implying that manufacturing SMEs have high levels of technical inefficiency in their production processes.Manufacturing SMEs in the North-eastern region are particularly labour-intensive. The empirical results of the technical inefficiency effects model suggest that skilled labour, the municipal area and ownership characteristics are important firm-specific factors affecting technical efficiency. The paper argues that the government should play a more substantial role in developing manufacturing SMEs in the North-eastern provinces through: providing training programs for employees and employers; encouraging a greater usage of capital and technology in the production process of SMEs; enhancing the efficiency of state-ownedenterprises; encouraging a wide range of ownership forms; and improving information and communications infrastructure.

  2. Stochastic stability of mechanical systems under renewal jump process parametric excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iwankiewicz, R.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Larsen, Jesper Winther

    2005-01-01

    independent, negative exponential distributed variables; hence, the arrival process may be termed as a generalized Erlang renewal process. The excitation process is governed by the stochastic equation driven by two independent Poisson processes, with different parameters. If the response in a single mode...

  3. New Results on Passivity Analysis of Stochastic Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delay and Leakage Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YaJun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The passivity problem for a class of stochastic neural networks systems (SNNs with varying delay and leakage delay has been further studied in this paper. By constructing a more effective Lyapunov functional, employing the free-weighting matrix approach, and combining with integral inequality technic and stochastic analysis theory, the delay-dependent conditions have been proposed such that SNNs are asymptotically stable with guaranteed performance. The time-varying delay is divided into several subintervals and two adjustable parameters are introduced; more information about time delay is utilised and less conservative results have been obtained. Examples are provided to illustrate the less conservatism of the proposed method and simulations are given to show the impact of leakage delay on stability of SNNs.

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Networked Control Systems Using Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-03

    The stability notions considered can be classified in two broad categories: bounds on the probability that the state of the system “ misbehaves ” or...alternative types of condi- tions: One is focused on making sure that the probability that the stochastic process “ misbehaves ” is very small. Such

  5. Geomechanics-Based Stochastic Analysis of Injection- Induced Seismicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghassemi, Ahmad [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)

    2017-08-21

    The production of geothermal energy from dry and low permeability reservoirs is achieved by water circulation in natural and/or man-made fractures, and is referred to as enhanced or engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Often, the permeable zones have to be created by stimulation, a process which involves fracture initiation and/or activation of discontinuities such as faults and joints due to pore pressure and the in-situ stress perturbations. The stimulation of a rock mass is often accompanied by multiple microseismic events. Micro-seismic events associated with rock failure in shear, and shear slip on new or pre-existing fracture planes and possibly their propagations. The microseismic signals contain information about the sources of energy that can be used for understanding the hydraulic fracturing process and the created reservoir properties. Detection and interpretation of microseismic events is useful for estimating the stimulated zone, created reservoir permeability and fracture growth, and geometry of the geological structures and the in-situ stress state. The process commonly is referred to as seismicity-based reservoir characterization (SBRC). Although, progress has been made by scientific & geothermal communities for quantitative and qualitative analysis of reservoir stimulation using SBRC several key questions remain unresolved in the analysis of micro-seismicity namely, variation of seismic activity with injection rate, delayed micro-seismicity, and the relation of stimulated zone to the injected volume and its rate, and the resulting reservoir permeability. In addition, the current approach to SBRC does not consider the full range of relevant poroelastic and thermoelastic phenomena and neglects the uncertainty in rock properties and in-situ stress in the data inversion process. The objective of this research and technology developments was to develop a 3D SBRC model that addresses these shortcomings by taking into account hydro

  6. Analysis of the production stability of mixed grasslands. II. A mathematical framework for the quantification of production stability of grassland ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schulte, R.P.O.

    2003-01-01

    The analysis of the intrinsic properties and processes of ecosystems, which regulate the production stability of mixed grasslands, has been complicated by the environmental noise caused by stochastic weather fluctuations. A mathematical framework is presented to deduct the actual, the extrinsic and

  7. Stochastic fractional differential equations: Modeling, method and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedjeu, Jean-C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

    2012-01-01

    By introducing a concept of dynamic process operating under multi-time scales in sciences and engineering, a mathematical model described by a system of multi-time scale stochastic differential equations is formulated. The classical Picard–Lindelöf successive approximations scheme is applied to the model validation problem, namely, existence and uniqueness of solution process. Naturally, this leads to the problem of finding closed form solutions of both linear and nonlinear multi-time scale stochastic differential equations of Itô–Doob type. Finally, to illustrate the scope of ideas and presented results, multi-time scale stochastic models for ecological and epidemiological processes in population dynamic are outlined.

  8. Analysis of distances between inclusions in finite binary stochastic materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griesheimer, David P.; Millman, David L.; Willis, Clarence R.

    2011-01-01

    A generalized probability density function (PDF) describing the distribution of inter-inclusion distances in finite, isotropic, binary stochastic materials with fixed diameter inclusions has been developed and tested. The new probability density function explicitly accounts for edge effects present in finite two- and three-dimensional stochastic materials. The generalized PDF is shown to include factors that are dependent on both the geometry of the material region as well as the statistical properties of the material. A discussion of the properties and application of this newly developed PDF is provided along with supporting numerical results for case studies in one- and two-dimensions. These numerical results demonstrate the ability of the newly derived PDF to correctly account for edge effects in finite stochastic materials, while still reproducing the expected distribution within the bulk material region.

  9. Discussion on Stochastic Analysis of Hydraulic Vibration in Pressurized Water Diversion and Hydropower Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianxu Zhou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic vibration exists in various water conveyance projects and has resulted in different operating problems, but its obvious effects on system’s pressure head and stable operation have not been definitively addressed in the issued codes for engineering design, especially considering the uncertainties of hydraulic vibration. After detailed analysis of the randomness in hydraulic vibration and the commonly used stochastic approaches, in the basic equations for hydraulic vibration analysis, the random parameters and the formed stochastic equations were discussed for further probabilistic characteristic analysis of the random variables. Furthermore, preliminary investigation of the stochastic analysis of hydraulic vibration in pressurized pipelines and possible self-excited vibration in pumped-storage systems was presented for further consideration. The detailed discussion indicates that it is necessary to conduct further and systematic stochastic analysis of hydraulic vibration. Further, with the obtained frequencies and amplitudes in the form of a probability statement, the stochastic characteristics of various hydraulic vibrations can be investigated in detail and these solutions will be more reasonable for practical applications. Eventually, the stochastic analysis of hydraulic vibration will provide a basic premise to introduce its effect into the engineering design of water diversion and hydropower systems.

  10. Stochastic analysis of transport of conservative solutes in caisson experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagan, G.

    1995-01-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory has conducted in the past a series of experiments of transport of conservative and reactive solutes. The experimental setup and the experimental results are presented in a series of reports. The main aim of the experiments was to validate models of transport of solutes in unsaturated flow at the caisson intermediate scale, which is much larger than the one pertaining to laboratory columns. First attempts to analyze the experimental results were by one-dimensional convective-dispersion models. These models could not explain the observed solute breakthrough curves and particularly the large solute dispersion in the caisson effluent Since there were some question marks about the uniformity of water distribution at the caisson top, the transport experiments were repeated under conditions of saturated flow. In these experiments constant heads were applied at the top and the bottom of the caisson and the number of concentration monitoring stations was quadrupled. The analysis of the measurements by the same one-dimensional model indicated clearly that the fitted dispersivity is much larger than the pore-sole dispersivity and that it grows with the distance in an approximately linear fashion. This led to the conclusion, raised before, that transport in the caisson is dominated by heterogeneity effects, i.e. by spatial variability of the material Such effects cannot be captured by traditional one-dimensional models. In order to account for the effect of heterogeneity, the saturated flow experiments have been analyzed by using stochastic transport modeling. The apparent linear growth of dispersivity with distance suggested that the system behaves like a stratified one. Consequently, the model of Dagan and Bresier has been adopted in order to interpret concentration measurements. In this simple model the caisson is viewed as a bundle of columns of different permeabilities, which are characterized by a p.d.f. (probability denasity function)

  11. An Analysis of Stochastic Game Theory for Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bowling, Michael

    2000-01-01

    .... In this paper we contribute a comprehensive presentation of the relevant techniques for solving stochastic games from both the game theory community and reinforcement learning communities. We examine the assumptions and limitations of these algorithms, and identify similarities between these algorithms, single agent reinforcement learners, and basic game theory techniques.

  12. Intermittency in multihadron production: An analysis using stochastic theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biyajima, M.

    1989-01-01

    Multiplicity data of the NA22, KLM, and UA1 collaborations are analysed by means of probability distributions derived in the framework of pure birth stochastic equations. The intermittent behaviour of the KLM and UA1 data is well reproduced by the theory. A comparison with the negative binomial distribution is also made. 19 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab. (Authors)

  13. Stochastic Dominance in Portfolio Analysis and Asset Pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Lizyayev (Andrey)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractStochastic Dominance relation is a probabilistic concept which allows random outcomes such as portfolio returns to be ranked, by utilizing the full information about the distribution of the returns, in contrast to the mean-variance rule or other mean-risk models which only use a single

  14. Complementary programs for stochastic analysis of radionuclide transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Hernandez, J.J.

    1993-01-01

    The present programs will permit to analyze the risks using parametric and non parametric technic. The programs are presented in two groups: 1) variable estimation through indicator krigeaje and variable estimation by Cokrigeaje 2) variable simulation with multi gassiness stochastic model and non gassiness. This report includes new programs for the non parametric geostatistics

  15. Stochastic Analysis of Differential GPS Surveys for Earth Dam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In GPS measurement, we try to model not just the deterministic part of the measurement but also try to account for their stochastic behavior using the measurement variance-covariance matrix. The variance-covariance matrices are computed as part of a least squares adjustment. In this study, the results of GPS survey by ...

  16. Exponential stability for stochastic delayed recurrent neural networks with mixed time-varying delays and impulses: the continuous-time case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karthik Raja, U; Leelamani, A; Raja, R; Samidurai, R

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the exponential stability for a class of stochastic neural networks with time-varying delays and impulsive effects is considered. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and by using the linear matrix inequality optimization approach, we obtain sufficient delay-dependent criteria to ensure the exponential stability of stochastic neural networks with time-varying delays and impulses. Two numerical examples with simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained results over those already existing in the literature. (paper)

  17. Stochastic programming and market equilibrium analysis of microgrids energy management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

    2016-01-01

    Microgrids facilitate optimum utilization of distributed renewable energy, provides better local energy supply, and reduces transmission loss and greenhouse gas emission. Because the uncertainty in energy demand affects the energy demand and supply system, the aim of this research is to develop a stochastic optimization and its market equilibrium for microgrids in the electricity market. Therefore, a two-stage stochastic programming model for microgrids and the market competition model are derived in this paper. In the stochastic model, energy demand and supply uncertainties are considered. Furthermore, a case study of the stochastic model is conducted to simulate the uncertainties on the INER microgrids in Taiwanese market. The optimal investment of the generators and batteries installation and operating strategies are determined under energy demand and supply uncertainties for the INER microgrids. The results show optimal investment and operating strategies for the current INER microgrids are also determined by the proposed two-stage stochastic model in the market. In addition, trade-off between the battery capacity and microgrids performance is investigated. Battery usage and power trading between the microgrids and main grid systems are the functions of battery capacity. - Highlights: • A two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for microgrids. • Market equilibrium analysis of microgrids is conducted. • A case study of the stochastic model is conducted for INER microgrids.

  18. Concordance measures and second order stochastic dominance-portfolio efficiency analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kopa, Miloš; Tichý, T.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2012), s. 110-120 ISSN 1212-3609 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : dependency * concordance * portfolio selection * second order stochastic dominance Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.633, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kopa-concordance measures and second order stochastic dominance- portfolio efficiency analysis.pdf

  19. Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Analysis : in Honor of Hui-Hsiung Kuo

    CERN Document Server

    Sundar, Pushpa

    2008-01-01

    This volume contains current work at the frontiers of research in infinite dimensional stochastic analysis. It presents a carefully chosen collection of articles by experts to highlight the latest developments in white noise theory, infinite dimensional transforms, quantum probability, stochastic partial differential equations, and applications to mathematical finance. Included in this volume are expository papers which will help increase communication between researchers working in these areas. The tools and techniques presented here will be of great value to research mathematicians, graduate

  20. Noise Analysis of Single-Ended Input Differential Amplifier using Stochastic Differential Equation

    OpenAIRE

    Tarun Kumar Rawat; Abhirup Lahiri; Ashish Gupta

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the effect of noise in a single- ended input differential amplifier working at high frequencies. Both extrinsic and intrinsic noise are analyzed using time domain method employing techniques from stochastic calculus. Stochastic differential equations are used to obtain autocorrelation functions of the output noise voltage and other solution statistics like mean and variance. The analysis leads to important design implications and suggests changes in the device parame...

  1. Stability analysis and stabilization strategies for linear supply chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi; Helbing, Dirk

    2004-04-01

    Due to delays in the adaptation of production or delivery rates, supply chains can be dynamically unstable with respect to perturbations in the consumption rate, which is known as “bull-whip effect”. Here, we study several conceivable production strategies to stabilize supply chains, which is expressed by different specifications of the management function controlling the production speed in dependence of the stock levels. In particular, we will investigate, whether the reaction to stock levels of other producers or suppliers has a stabilizing effect. We will also demonstrate that the anticipation of future stock levels can stabilize the supply system, given the forecast horizon τ is long enough. To show this, we derive linear stability conditions and carry out simulations for different control strategies. The results indicate that the linear stability analysis is a helpful tool for the judgement of the stabilization effect, although unexpected deviations can occur in the non-linear regime. There are also signs of phase transitions and chaotic behavior, but this remains to be investigated more thoroughly in the future.

  2. Stochastic Analysis and Applied Probability(3.3.1): Topics in the Theory and Applications of Stochastic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-13

    Critical Catalyst Reactant Branching Processes with Controlled Immigration , Annals of Applied Probability (03 2012) Amarjit Budhiraja, Rami Atar ...Markus Fischer. Large Deviation Properties of Weakly Interacting Processes via Weak Convergence Methods, Annals of Probability (10 2010) Rami Atar ...Dimensional Forward-Backward Stochastic Differen- tial Equations and the KPZ Equation Electron. J. Probab., 19 (2014), no. 40, 121. [2] R. Atar and A

  3. Analysis of future nuclear power plants competitiveness with stochastic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feretic, D.; Tomsic, Z.

    2004-01-01

    To satisfy the increased demand it is necessary to build new electrical power plants, which could in an optimal way meet, the imposed acceptability criteria. The main criteria are potential to supply the required energy, to supply this energy with minimal (or at least acceptable) costs, to satisfy licensing requirements and be acceptable to public. The main competitors for unlimited electricity production in next few decades are fossil power plants (coal and gas) and nuclear power plants. New renewable power plants (solar, wind, biomass) are also important but due to limited energy supply potential and high costs can be only supplement to the main generating units. Large hydropower plans would be competitive under condition of existence of suitable sites for construction of such plants. The paper describes the application of a stochastic method for comparing economic parameters of future electrical power generating systems including conventional and nuclear power plants. The method is applied to establish competitive specific investment costs of future nuclear power plants when compared with combined cycle gas fired units combined with wind electricity generators using best estimated and optimistic input data. The bases for economic comparison of potential options are plant life time levelized electricity generating costs. The purpose is to assess the uncertainty of several key performance and cost of electricity produced in coal fired power plant, gas fired power plant and nuclear power plant developing probability distribution of levelized price of electricity from different Power Plants, cumulative probability of levelized price of electricity for each technology and probability distribution of cost difference between the technologies. The key parameters evaluated include: levelized electrical energy cost USD/kWh,, discount rate, interest rate for credit repayment, rate of expected increase of fuel cost, plant investment cost , fuel cost , constant annual

  4. On stabilization of linear systems with stochastic disturbances and input saturation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoorvogel, A.A.; Weiland, S.; Saberi, A.

    2004-01-01

    It is well-known that for linear systems internal asymptotic stability implies external stability in the sense that when the external input is in Lp then also the state will be in Lp. However, for the control of linear systems with saturation where the controlled system is nonlinear this implication

  5. Modeling and stochastic analysis of dynamic mechanisms of the perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarchik, A.; Bashkirtseva, I.; Ryashko, L.

    2017-10-01

    Modern studies in physiology and cognitive neuroscience consider a noise as an important constructive factor of the brain functionality. Under the adequate noise, the brain can rapidly access different ordered states, and provide decision-making by preventing deadlocks. Bistable dynamic models are often used for the study of the underlying mechanisms of the visual perception. In the present paper, we consider a bistable energy model subject to both additive and parametric noise. Using the catastrophe theory formalism and stochastic sensitivity functions technique, we analyze a response of the equilibria to noise, and study noise-induced transitions between equilibria. We demonstrate and analyse the effect of hysteresis squeezing when the intensity of noise is increased. Stochastic bifurcations connected with the suppression of oscillations by parametric noises are discussed.

  6. Nonlinear Stochastic Analysis of Subharmonic Response of a Shallow Cable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Q.; Stærdahl, Jesper Winther; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2007-01-01

    and stochastic subharmonic response is demonstrated upon comparison with a more involved model based on a spatial finite difference discretization of the full nonlinear partial differential equations of the cable. Since the stochastic response quantities are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation, which is extremely...... time-consuming for the finite difference model, most of the results are next based on the reduced model. Under harmonical varying support point motions the stable subharmonic motion consists of a harmonically varying component in the equilibrium plane and a large subharmonic out-of-plane component...... subharmonic response component is also present in the static equilibrium plane. Further, the time variation of the envelope process of the narrow-banded chordwise elongation process tends to enhance chaotic behaviour of the subharmonic response, which is detectable via extreme sensitivity on the initial...

  7. Stochastic Turing Patterns: Analysis of Compartment-Based Approaches

    KAUST Repository

    Cao, Yang; Erban, Radek

    2014-01-01

    © 2014, Society for Mathematical Biology. Turing patterns can be observed in reaction-diffusion systems where chemical species have different diffusion constants. In recent years, several studies investigated the effects of noise on Turing patterns and showed that the parameter regimes, for which stochastic Turing patterns are observed, can be larger than the parameter regimes predicted by deterministic models, which are written in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs) for species concentrations. A common stochastic reaction-diffusion approach is written in terms of compartment-based (lattice-based) models, where the domain of interest is divided into artificial compartments and the number of molecules in each compartment is simulated. In this paper, the dependence of stochastic Turing patterns on the compartment size is investigated. It has previously been shown (for relatively simpler systems) that a modeler should not choose compartment sizes which are too small or too large, and that the optimal compartment size depends on the diffusion constant. Taking these results into account, we propose and study a compartment-based model of Turing patterns where each chemical species is described using a different set of compartments. It is shown that the parameter regions where spatial patterns form are different from the regions obtained by classical deterministic PDE-based models, but they are also different from the results obtained for the stochastic reaction-diffusion models which use a single set of compartments for all chemical species. In particular, it is argued that some previously reported results on the effect of noise on Turing patterns in biological systems need to be reinterpreted.

  8. Stochastic Turing Patterns: Analysis of Compartment-Based Approaches

    KAUST Repository

    Cao, Yang

    2014-11-25

    © 2014, Society for Mathematical Biology. Turing patterns can be observed in reaction-diffusion systems where chemical species have different diffusion constants. In recent years, several studies investigated the effects of noise on Turing patterns and showed that the parameter regimes, for which stochastic Turing patterns are observed, can be larger than the parameter regimes predicted by deterministic models, which are written in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs) for species concentrations. A common stochastic reaction-diffusion approach is written in terms of compartment-based (lattice-based) models, where the domain of interest is divided into artificial compartments and the number of molecules in each compartment is simulated. In this paper, the dependence of stochastic Turing patterns on the compartment size is investigated. It has previously been shown (for relatively simpler systems) that a modeler should not choose compartment sizes which are too small or too large, and that the optimal compartment size depends on the diffusion constant. Taking these results into account, we propose and study a compartment-based model of Turing patterns where each chemical species is described using a different set of compartments. It is shown that the parameter regions where spatial patterns form are different from the regions obtained by classical deterministic PDE-based models, but they are also different from the results obtained for the stochastic reaction-diffusion models which use a single set of compartments for all chemical species. In particular, it is argued that some previously reported results on the effect of noise on Turing patterns in biological systems need to be reinterpreted.

  9. Dynamic analysis of a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying; Wang, Shuangfeng; Zou, Guang-an

    2018-02-01

    The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, has led rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model. Firstly, we obtain the existence of the global solution. Secondly, sufficient conditions for extinction of the rumor are established. Lastly, the boundedness of solution is proved and some simulations are given to verify our results.

  10. A Macroscopic Multifractal Analysis of Parabolic Stochastic PDEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshnevisan, Davar; Kim, Kunwoo; Xiao, Yimin

    2018-05-01

    It is generally argued that the solution to a stochastic PDE with multiplicative noise—such as \\dot{u}= 1/2 u''+uξ, where {ξ} denotes space-time white noise—routinely produces exceptionally-large peaks that are "macroscopically multifractal." See, for example, Gibbon and Doering (Arch Ration Mech Anal 177:115-150, 2005), Gibbon and Titi (Proc R Soc A 461:3089-3097, 2005), and Zimmermann et al. (Phys Rev Lett 85(17):3612-3615, 2000). A few years ago, we proved that the spatial peaks of the solution to the mentioned stochastic PDE indeed form a random multifractal in the macroscopic sense of Barlow and Taylor (J Phys A 22(13):2621-2626, 1989; Proc Lond Math Soc (3) 64:125-152, 1992). The main result of the present paper is a proof of a rigorous formulation of the assertion that the spatio-temporal peaks of the solution form infinitely-many different multifractals on infinitely-many different scales, which we sometimes refer to as "stretch factors." A simpler, though still complex, such structure is shown to also exist for the constant-coefficient version of the said stochastic PDE.

  11. A Macroscopic Multifractal Analysis of Parabolic Stochastic PDEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshnevisan, Davar; Kim, Kunwoo; Xiao, Yimin

    2018-04-01

    It is generally argued that the solution to a stochastic PDE with multiplicative noise—such as \\dot{u}= 1/2 u''+uξ, where {ξ} denotes space-time white noise—routinely produces exceptionally-large peaks that are "macroscopically multifractal." See, for example, Gibbon and Doering (Arch Ration Mech Anal 177:115-150, 2005), Gibbon and Titi (Proc R Soc A 461:3089-3097, 2005), and Zimmermann et al. (Phys Rev Lett 85(17):3612-3615, 2000). A few years ago, we proved that the spatial peaks of the solution to the mentioned stochastic PDE indeed form a random multifractal in the macroscopic sense of Barlow and Taylor (J Phys A 22(13):2621-2626, 1989; Proc Lond Math Soc (3) 64:125-152, 1992). The main result of the present paper is a proof of a rigorous formulation of the assertion that the spatio-temporal peaks of the solution form infinitely-many different multifractals on infinitely-many different scales, which we sometimes refer to as "stretch factors." A simpler, though still complex, such structure is shown to also exist for the constant-coefficient version of the said stochastic PDE.

  12. Complexity Dynamic Character Analysis of Retailers Based on the Share of Stochastic Demand and Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhai Ma

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Apart from the price fluctuation, the retailers’ service level becomes another key factor that affects the market demand. This paper depicts a modified price and demand game model based on the stochastic demand and the retailer’s service level which influences the market demand decided by customers’ preference, while the market demand is stochastic in this model. We explore how the price adjustment speed affects the stability of the supply chain system with respect to service level and stochastic demand. The dynamic behavior of the system is researched by simulation and the stability domain and the bifurcation phenomenon are shown clearly. The largest Lyapunov exponent and the chaotic attractor are also given to confirm the chaotic characteristic of the system. The simulation results indicate that relatively small price adjustment speed may maintain the system at stable state. With the price adjustment speed gradually increasing, the price system gets unstable and finally becomes chaotic. This chaotic phenomenon will perturb the product market and this phenomenon should be controlled to keep the system stay in the stable region. So the chaos control is done and the chaos can be controlled completely. The conclusion makes significant contribution to the system referring to the price fluctuation based on the service level and stochastic demand.

  13. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, M.H.; Phillps, M.W.; Todd, A.M.M.; Krishnaswami, J.; Hartley, R.

    1992-09-01

    This report describes ideal and resistive studies of high-beta plasmas and of the second stability region. Emphasis is focused on ''supershot'' plasmas in TFIR where MHD instabilities are frequently observed and which spoil their confinement properties. Substantial results are described from the analysis of these high beta poloidal plasmas. During these studies, initial pressure and safety factor profiles were obtained from the TRANSP code, which is used extensively to analyze experimental data. Resistive MBD stability studies of supershot equilibria show that finite pressure stabilization of tearing modes is very strong in these high βp plasmas. This has prompted a detailed re-examination of linear tearing mode theory in which we participated in collaboration with Columbia University and General Atomics. This finite pressure effect is shown to be highly sensitive to small scale details of the pressure profile. Even when an ad hoc method of removing this stabilizing mechanism is implemented, however, it is shown that there is only superficial agreement between resistive MBD stability computation and the experimental data. While the mode structures observed experimentally can be found computationally, there is no convincing correlation with the experimental observations when the computed results are compared with a large set of supershot data. We also describe both the ideal and resistive stability properties of TFIR equilibria near the transition to the second region. It is shown that the highest β plasmas, although stable to infinite-n ideal ballooning modes, can be unstable to the so called ''infernal'' modes associated with small shear. The sensitivity of these results to the assumed pressure and current density profiles is discussed. Finally, we describe results from two collaborative studies with PPPL. The first involves exploratory studies of the role of the 1/1 mode in tokamaks and, secondly, a study of sawtooth stabilization using ICRF

  14. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    This document summarizes progress made on the research of high beta and second region transport and stability. In the area second stability region studies we report on an investigation of the possibility of second region access in the center of TFTR ''supershots.'' The instabilities found may coincide with experimental observation. Significant progress has been made on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies profiles were taken from the TRANSP transport analysis code which analyzes experimental data. Invoking flattening of the pressure profile on mode rational surfaces causes tearing modes to persist into the experimental range of interest. Further, the experimental observation of the modes seems to be consistent with the predictions of the MHD model. In addition, code development in several areas has proceeded

  15. Globally Asymptotic Stability of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems by the Output Feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenwen Cheng

    2015-01-01

    the traditional mathematical induction method. Indeed, we develop a new method to study the globally asymptotic stability by introducing a series of specific inequalities. Moreover, an example and its simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical result.

  16. The influences of delay time on the stability of a market model with stochastic volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2013-02-01

    The effects of the delay time on the stability of a market model are investigated, by using a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity and cross-correlated noise sources. These results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time τo which maximally enhances the stability of the stock price under strong demand elasticity of stock price, and maximally reduces the stability of the stock price under weak demand elasticity of stock price; (ii) The cross correlation coefficient of noises and the delay time play an opposite role on the stability for the case of the delay time τo. Moreover, the probability density function of the escape time of stock price returns, the probability density function of the returns and the correlation function of the returns are compared with other literatures.

  17. Stochastic analysis of residential micro combined heat and power system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karami, H.; Sanjari, M. J.; Gooi, H. B.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper the combined heat and power functionality of a fuel-cell in a residential hybrid energy system, including a battery, is studied. The demand uncertainties are modeled by investigating the stochastic load behavior by applying Monte Carlo simulation. The colonial competitive algorithm...... algorithm. The optimized scheduling of different energy resources is listed in an efficient look-up table for all time intervals. The effects of time of use and the battery efficiency and its size are investigated on the operating cost of the hybrid energy system. The results of this paper are expected...

  18. Dynamic analysis of a stochastic rumor propagation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying

    2018-01-01

    The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, leads rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic rumor propagation model. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the rumor are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the rumor is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

  19. Power system stability modelling, analysis and control

    CERN Document Server

    Sallam, Abdelhay A

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the subject from both a physical and mathematical perspective and covers a range of topics including modelling, computation of load flow in the transmission grid, stability analysis under both steady-state and disturbed conditions, and appropriate controls to enhance stability.

  20. Almost Surely Asymptotic Stability of Numerical Solutions for Neutral Stochastic Delay Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhua Yu

    2011-01-01

    convergence theorem. It is shown that the Euler method and the backward Euler method can reproduce the almost surely asymptotic stability of exact solutions to NSDDEs under additional conditions. Numerical examples are demonstrated to illustrate the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

  1. Nonintrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Differential Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Jimenez, M. Navarro; Le Maî tre, O. P.; Knio, Omar

    2017-01-01

    A Galerkin polynomial chaos (PC) method was recently proposed to perform variance decomposition and sensitivity analysis in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), driven by Wiener noise and involving uncertain parameters. The present paper extends the PC method to nonintrusive approaches enabling its application to more complex systems hardly amenable to stochastic Galerkin projection methods. We also discuss parallel implementations and the variance decomposition of the derived quantity of interest within the framework of nonintrusive approaches. In particular, a novel hybrid PC-sampling-based strategy is proposed in the case of nonsmooth quantities of interest (QoIs) but smooth SDE solution. Numerical examples are provided that illustrate the decomposition of the variance of QoIs into contributions arising from the uncertain parameters, the inherent stochastic forcing, and joint effects. The simulations are also used to support a brief analysis of the computational complexity of the method, providing insight on the types of problems that would benefit from the present developments.

  2. Nonintrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions for Sensitivity Analysis in Stochastic Differential Equations

    KAUST Repository

    Jimenez, M. Navarro

    2017-04-18

    A Galerkin polynomial chaos (PC) method was recently proposed to perform variance decomposition and sensitivity analysis in stochastic differential equations (SDEs), driven by Wiener noise and involving uncertain parameters. The present paper extends the PC method to nonintrusive approaches enabling its application to more complex systems hardly amenable to stochastic Galerkin projection methods. We also discuss parallel implementations and the variance decomposition of the derived quantity of interest within the framework of nonintrusive approaches. In particular, a novel hybrid PC-sampling-based strategy is proposed in the case of nonsmooth quantities of interest (QoIs) but smooth SDE solution. Numerical examples are provided that illustrate the decomposition of the variance of QoIs into contributions arising from the uncertain parameters, the inherent stochastic forcing, and joint effects. The simulations are also used to support a brief analysis of the computational complexity of the method, providing insight on the types of problems that would benefit from the present developments.

  3. The Schrödinger–Robinson inequality from stochastic analysis on a complex Hilbert space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2013-01-01

    We explored the stochastic analysis on a complex Hilbert space to show that one of the cornerstones of quantum mechanics (QM), namely Heisenberg's uncertainty relation, can be derived in the classical probabilistic framework. We created a new mathematical representation of quantum averages: as averages with respect to classical random fields. The existence of a classical stochastic model matching with Heisenberg's uncertainty relation makes the connection between classical and quantum probabilistic models essentially closer. In real physical situations, random fields are valued in the L 2 -space. Hence, although we model QM and not QFT, the classical systems under consideration have an infinite number of degrees of freedom. And in our modeling, infinite-dimensional stochastic analysis is the basic mathematical tool. (comment)

  4. MHD stability analysis of helical system plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Yuji

    2000-01-01

    Several topics of the MHD stability studies in helical system plasmas are reviewed with respect to the linear and ideal modes mainly. Difference of the method of the MHD stability analysis in helical system plasmas from that in tokamak plasmas is emphasized. Lack of the cyclic (symmetric) coordinate makes an analysis more difficult. Recent topic about TAE modes in a helical system is also described briefly. (author)

  5. A New Methodology for Open Pit Slope Design in Karst-Prone Ground Conditions Based on Integrated Stochastic-Limit Equilibrium Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke; Cao, Ping; Ma, Guowei; Fan, Wenchen; Meng, Jingjing; Li, Kaihui

    2016-07-01

    Using the Chengmenshan Copper Mine as a case study, a new methodology for open pit slope design in karst-prone ground conditions is presented based on integrated stochastic-limit equilibrium analysis. The numerical modeling and optimization design procedure contain a collection of drill core data, karst cave stochastic model generation, SLIDE simulation and bisection method optimization. Borehole investigations are performed, and the statistical result shows that the length of the karst cave fits a negative exponential distribution model, but the length of carbonatite does not exactly follow any standard distribution. The inverse transform method and acceptance-rejection method are used to reproduce the length of the karst cave and carbonatite, respectively. A code for karst cave stochastic model generation, named KCSMG, is developed. The stability of the rock slope with the karst cave stochastic model is analyzed by combining the KCSMG code and the SLIDE program. This approach is then applied to study the effect of the karst cave on the stability of the open pit slope, and a procedure to optimize the open pit slope angle is presented.

  6. Comment on "Fault Tolerant analysis for stochastic systems using switching diffusion processes' by Yang, Jiang and Cocquempot

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Leth, John-Josef

    2011-01-01

    Results are given in [Yang et. al. 2009] regarding the overall stability of switched diffusion processes based on stability properties of separate processes combined through stochastic switching. This paper argues two main results to be empty, in that the presented hypotheses are logically...

  7. Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

    1986-01-01

    The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

  8. Stochastic Petri net analysis of a replicated file system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechta Dugan, Joanne; Ciardo, Gianfranco

    1989-01-01

    A stochastic Petri-net model of a replicated file system is presented for a distributed environment where replicated files reside on different hosts and a voting algorithm is used to maintain consistency. Witnesses, which simply record the status of the file but contain no data, can be used in addition to or in place of files to reduce overhead. A model sufficiently detailed to include file status (current or out-of-date), as well as failure and repair of hosts where copies or witnesses reside, is presented. The number of copies and witnesses is a parameter of the model. Two different majority protocols are examined, one where a majority of all copies and witnesses is necessary to form a quorum, and the other where only a majority of the copies and witnesses on operational hosts is needed. The latter, known as adaptive voting, is shown to increase file availability in most cases.

  9. Stochastic Modeling and Performance Analysis of Multimedia SoCs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raman, Balaji; Nouri, Ayoub; Gangadharan, Deepak

    2013-01-01

    solutions where each modeling technique has both the above mentioned characteristics. We present a probabilistic analytical framework and a statistical model checking approach to design system-on-chips for low-cost multimedia systems. We apply the modeling techniques to size the output buffer in a video......Reliability and flexibility are among the key required features of a framework used to model a system. Existing approaches to design resource-constrained, soft-real time systems either provide guarantees for output quality or account for loss in the system, but not both. We propose two independent...... decoder. The results shows that, for our stochastic design metric, the analytical framework upper bounds (and relatively accurate) compare to the statistical model checking technique. Also, we observed significant reduction in resource usage (such as output buffer size) with tolerable loss in output...

  10. Stochastic motion of particles in tandem mirror devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Y.H.; Kamimura, T.

    1982-01-01

    Stochastic motion of particles in tandem mirror devices is examined on basis of a nonlinear mapping of particle positions on the equatorial plane. Local stability analysis provides detailed informations on particle trajectories. The rate of stochastic plasma diffusion is estimated from numerical observations of motions of particles over a large number of time steps. (author)

  11. CO_2 volatility impact on energy portfolio choice: A fully stochastic LCOE theory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucheroni, Carlo; Mari, Carlo

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Stochastic LCOE theory is an extension of the levelized cost of electricity analysis. • The fully stochastic analysis include stochastic processes for fossil fuels prices and CO_2 prices. • The nuclear asset is risky through uncertainty about construction times and it is used as a hedge. • Volatility of CO_2 prices has a strong influence on CO_2 emissions reduction. - Abstract: Market based pricing of CO_2 was designed to control CO_2 emissions by means of the price level, since high CO_2 price levels discourage emissions. In this paper, it will be shown that the level of uncertainty on CO_2 market prices, i.e. the volatility of CO_2 prices itself, has a strong influence not only on generation portfolio risk management but also on CO_2 emissions abatement. A reduction of emissions can be obtained when rational power generation capacity investors decide that the capacity expansion cost risk induced jointly by CO_2 volatility and fossil fuels prices volatility can be efficiently hedged adding to otherwise fossil fuel portfolios some nuclear power as a carbon free asset. This intriguing effect will be discussed using a recently introduced economic analysis tool, called stochastic LCOE theory. The stochastic LCOE theory used here was designed to investigate diversification effects on energy portfolios. In previous papers this theory was used to study diversification effects on portfolios composed of carbon risky fossil technologies and a carbon risk-free nuclear technology in a risk-reward trade-off frame. In this paper the stochastic LCOE theory will be extended to include uncertainty about nuclear power plant construction times, i.e. considering nuclear risky as well, this being the main uncertainty source of financial risk in nuclear technology. Two measures of risk will be used, standard deviation and CVaR deviation, to derive efficient frontiers for generation portfolios. Frontier portfolios will be analyzed in their implications on emissions

  12. A polynomial-chaos-expansion-based building block approach for stochastic analysis of photonic circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waqas, Abi; Melati, Daniele; Manfredi, Paolo; Grassi, Flavia; Melloni, Andrea

    2018-02-01

    The Building Block (BB) approach has recently emerged in photonic as a suitable strategy for the analysis and design of complex circuits. Each BB can be foundry related and contains a mathematical macro-model of its functionality. As well known, statistical variations in fabrication processes can have a strong effect on their functionality and ultimately affect the yield. In order to predict the statistical behavior of the circuit, proper analysis of the uncertainties effects is crucial. This paper presents a method to build a novel class of Stochastic Process Design Kits for the analysis of photonic circuits. The proposed design kits directly store the information on the stochastic behavior of each building block in the form of a generalized-polynomial-chaos-based augmented macro-model obtained by properly exploiting stochastic collocation and Galerkin methods. Using this approach, we demonstrate that the augmented macro-models of the BBs can be calculated once and stored in a BB (foundry dependent) library and then used for the analysis of any desired circuit. The main advantage of this approach, shown here for the first time in photonics, is that the stochastic moments of an arbitrary photonic circuit can be evaluated by a single simulation only, without the need for repeated simulations. The accuracy and the significant speed-up with respect to the classical Monte Carlo analysis are verified by means of classical photonic circuit example with multiple uncertain variables.

  13. Conference on Stochastic Analysis and Applications 2014 : in honour of Terry Lyons

    CERN Document Server

    Hambly, Ben; Zariphopoulou, Thaleia

    2014-01-01

    Articles from many of the main contributors to recent progress in stochastic analysis are included in this volume, which provides a snapshot of the current state of the area and its ongoing developments. It constitutes the proceedings of the conference on "Stochastic Analysis and Applications" held at the University of Oxford and the Oxford-Man Institute during 23-27 September, 2013. The conference honored the 60th birthday of Professor Terry Lyons FLSW FRSE FRS, Wallis Professor of Mathematics, University of Oxford. Terry Lyons is one of the leaders in the field of stochastic analysis. His introduction of the notion of rough paths has revolutionized the field, both in theory and in practice.  Stochastic Analysis is the branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis of dynamical systems affected by noise. It emerged as a core area of mathematics in the late 20th century and has subsequently developed into an important theory with a wide range of powerful and novel tools, and with impressive applications ...

  14. Design and analysis of stochastic DSS query optimizers in a distributed database system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manik Sharma

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Query optimization is a stimulating task of any database system. A number of heuristics have been applied in recent times, which proposed new algorithms for substantially improving the performance of a query. The hunt for a better solution still continues. The imperishable developments in the field of Decision Support System (DSS databases are presenting data at an exceptional rate. The massive volume of DSS data is consequential only when it is able to access and analyze by distinctive researchers. Here, an innovative stochastic framework of DSS query optimizer is proposed to further optimize the design of existing query optimization genetic approaches. The results of Entropy Based Restricted Stochastic Query Optimizer (ERSQO are compared with the results of Exhaustive Enumeration Query Optimizer (EAQO, Simple Genetic Query Optimizer (SGQO, Novel Genetic Query Optimizer (NGQO and Restricted Stochastic Query Optimizer (RSQO. In terms of Total Costs, EAQO outperforms SGQO, NGQO, RSQO and ERSQO. However, stochastic approaches dominate in terms of runtime. The Total Costs produced by ERSQO is better than SGQO, NGQO and RGQO by 12%, 8% and 5% respectively. Moreover, the effect of replicating data on the Total Costs of DSS query is also examined. In addition, the statistical analysis revealed a 2-tailed significant correlation between the number of join operations and the Total Costs of distributed DSS query. Finally, in regard to the consistency of stochastic query optimizers, the results of SGQO, NGQO, RSQO and ERSQO are 96.2%, 97.2%, 97.45 and 97.8% consistent respectively.

  15. Stochastic processes and functional analysis a volume of recent advances in honor of M. M. Rao

    CERN Document Server

    Krinik, Alan C

    2004-01-01

    This extraordinary compilation is an expansion of the recent American Mathematical Society Special Session celebrating M. M. Rao's distinguished career and includes most of the presented papers as well as ancillary contributions from session invitees. This book shows the effectiveness of abstract analysis for solving fundamental problems of stochastic theory, specifically the use of functional analytic methods for elucidating stochastic processes, as made manifest in M. M. Rao's prolific research achievements. Featuring a biography of M. M. Rao, a complete bibliography of his published works,

  16. Stability analysis by ERATO code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsunematsu, Toshihide; Takeda, Tatsuoki; Matsuura, Toshihiko; Azumi, Masafumi; Kurita, Gen-ichi

    1979-12-01

    Problems in MHD stability calculations by ERATO code are described; which concern convergence property of results, equilibrium codes, and machine optimization of ERATO code. It is concluded that irregularity on a convergence curve is not due to a fault of the ERATO code itself but due to inappropriate choice of the equilibrium calculation meshes. Also described are a code to calculate an equilibrium as a quasi-inverse problem and a code to calculate an equilibrium as a result of a transport process. Optimization of the code with respect to I/O operations reduced both CPU time and I/O time considerably. With the FACOM230-75 APU/CPU multiprocessor system, the performance is about 6 times as high as with the FACOM230-75 CPU, showing the effectiveness of a vector processing computer for the kind of MHD computations. This report is a summary of the material presented at the ERATO workshop 1979(ORNL), supplemented with some details. (author)

  17. Tensor methods for parameter estimation and bifurcation analysis of stochastic reaction networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Liao, S.; Vejchodský, Tomáš; Erban, R.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 108 (2015), s. 20150233 ISSN 1742-5689 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 328008 - STOCHDETBIOMODEL Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : gene regulatory networks * stochastic modelling * parametric analysis Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 3.818, year: 2015 http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/108/20150233

  18. Stochastic finite element analysis of long-span bridges with CFRP ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Stochastic seismic analysis of long-span bridges with Carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) cables are presented in this study through combination of the advantages ... Gümüşhane University, Department of Civil Engineering, 29000, Gümüşhane, Turkey; Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Civil Engineering, ...

  19. Stability analysis of free piston Stirling engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bégot, Sylvie; Layes, Guillaume; Lanzetta, François; Nika, Philippe

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents a stability analysis of a free piston Stirling engine. The model and the detailed calculation of pressures losses are exposed. Stability of the machine is studied by the observation of the eigenvalues of the model matrix. Model validation based on the comparison with NASA experimental results is described. The influence of operational and construction parameters on performance and stability issues is exposed. The results show that most parameters that are beneficial for machine power seem to induce irregular mechanical characteristics with load, suggesting that self-sustained oscillations could be difficult to maintain and control.

  20. Stability Analysis of the Embankment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.S. Gopalakrishna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In analysis of embankment model affected by dynamic force, employment of shaking table is a scientific way in assessment of earthquake behavior. This work focused on saturated loose sandy foundation and enbankment. The results generated through the pore pressure sensors indicated pore water pressure playing main role in creation of liquefaction and stability of the system, and also revealed deformation, settlement, liquefaction intensity and time stability of system in direct correlation with the strength and characteristics of soil. One of the economical methods in stabilization of soil foundation is improvement of some part soil foundation.

  1. Stability analysis of zigzag boron nitride nanoribbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rai, Hari Mohan, E-mail: rai.2208@gmail.com; Late, Ravikiran; Saxena, Shailendra K.; Kumar, Rajesh; Sagdeo, Pankaj R. [Indian Institute of Technology, Indore –452017 (India); Jaiswal, Neeraj K. [Discipline of Physics, PDPM- Indian Institute of Information Technology, Design and Manufacturing, Jabalpur – 482005 (India); Srivastava, Pankaj [Computational Nanoscience and Technology Lab. (CNTL), ABV- Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management, Gwalior – 474015 (India)

    2015-05-15

    We have explored the structural stability of bare and hydrogenated zigzag boron nitride nanoribbons (ZBNNRs). In order to investigate the structural stability, we calculate the cohesive energy for bare, one-edge and both edges H-terminated ZBNNRs with different widths. It is found that the ZBNNRs with width Nz=8 are energetically more favorable than the lower-width counterparts (Nz<8). Bare ZBNNRs have been found energetically most stable as compared to the edge terminated ribbons. Our analysis reveals that the structural stability is a function of ribbon-width and it is not affected significantly by the type of edge-passivation (one-edge or both-edges)

  2. Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Shu-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

  3. A stochastic differential equation analysis of cerebrospinal fluid dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Kalyan

    2011-01-18

    Clinical measurements of intracranial pressure (ICP) over time show fluctuations around the deterministic time path predicted by a classic mathematical model in hydrocephalus research. Thus an important issue in mathematical research on hydrocephalus remains unaddressed--modeling the effect of noise on CSF dynamics. Our objective is to mathematically model the noise in the data. The classic model relating the temporal evolution of ICP in pressure-volume studies to infusions is a nonlinear differential equation based on natural physical analogies between CSF dynamics and an electrical circuit. Brownian motion was incorporated into the differential equation describing CSF dynamics to obtain a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE) that accommodates the fluctuations in ICP. The SDE is explicitly solved and the dynamic probabilities of exceeding critical levels of ICP under different clinical conditions are computed. A key finding is that the probabilities display strong threshold effects with respect to noise. Above the noise threshold, the probabilities are significantly influenced by the resistance to CSF outflow and the intensity of the noise. Fluctuations in the CSF formation rate increase fluctuations in the ICP and they should be minimized to lower the patient's risk. The nonlinear SDE provides a scientific methodology for dynamic risk management of patients. The dynamic output of the SDE matches the noisy ICP data generated by the actual intracranial dynamics of patients better than the classic model used in prior research.

  4. A stochastic differential equation analysis of cerebrospinal fluid dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raman Kalyan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical measurements of intracranial pressure (ICP over time show fluctuations around the deterministic time path predicted by a classic mathematical model in hydrocephalus research. Thus an important issue in mathematical research on hydrocephalus remains unaddressed--modeling the effect of noise on CSF dynamics. Our objective is to mathematically model the noise in the data. Methods The classic model relating the temporal evolution of ICP in pressure-volume studies to infusions is a nonlinear differential equation based on natural physical analogies between CSF dynamics and an electrical circuit. Brownian motion was incorporated into the differential equation describing CSF dynamics to obtain a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE that accommodates the fluctuations in ICP. Results The SDE is explicitly solved and the dynamic probabilities of exceeding critical levels of ICP under different clinical conditions are computed. A key finding is that the probabilities display strong threshold effects with respect to noise. Above the noise threshold, the probabilities are significantly influenced by the resistance to CSF outflow and the intensity of the noise. Conclusions Fluctuations in the CSF formation rate increase fluctuations in the ICP and they should be minimized to lower the patient's risk. The nonlinear SDE provides a scientific methodology for dynamic risk management of patients. The dynamic output of the SDE matches the noisy ICP data generated by the actual intracranial dynamics of patients better than the classic model used in prior research.

  5. Bayesian analysis of deterministic and stochastic prisoner's dilemma games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kunreuther

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the behavior of individuals playing a classic two-person deterministic prisoner's dilemma (PD game with choice data obtained from repeated interdependent security prisoner's dilemma games with varying probabilities of loss and the ability to learn (or not learn about the actions of one's counterpart, an area of recent interest in experimental economics. This novel data set, from a series of controlled laboratory experiments, is analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical methods, the first application of such methods in this research domain. We find that individuals are much more likely to be cooperative when payoffs are deterministic than when the outcomes are probabilistic. A key factor explaining this difference is that subjects in a stochastic PD game respond not just to what their counterparts did but also to whether or not they suffered a loss. These findings are interpreted in the context of behavioral theories of commitment, altruism and reciprocity. The work provides a linkage between Bayesian statistics, experimental economics, and consumer psychology.

  6. Stochastic analysis of residential micro combined heat and power system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karami, H.; Sanjari, M.J.; Gooi, H.B.; Gharehpetian, G.B.; Guerrero, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Applying colonial competitive algorithm to the problem of optimal dispatching. • Economic modeling of the residential integrated energy system. • Investigating differences of stand-alone and system-connected modes of fuel cell operation. • Considering uncertainty on the electrical load. • The effects of battery capacity and its efficiency on the system is investigated. - Abstract: In this paper the combined heat and power functionality of a fuel-cell in a residential hybrid energy system, including a battery, is studied. The demand uncertainties are modeled by investigating the stochastic load behavior by applying Monte Carlo simulation. The colonial competitive algorithm is adopted to the hybrid energy system scheduling problem and different energy resources are optimally scheduled to have optimal operating cost of hybrid energy system. In order to show the effectiveness of the colonial competitive algorithm, the results are compared with the results of the harmony search algorithm. The optimized scheduling of different energy resources is listed in an efficient look-up table for all time intervals. The effects of time of use and the battery efficiency and its size are investigated on the operating cost of the hybrid energy system. The results of this paper are expected to be used effectively in a real hybrid energy system.

  7. Stochastic Drought Risk Analysis and Projection Methods For Thermoelectric Power Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekera, Behailu Belamo

    the systematic approach can be used for better understanding of pertinent vulnerabilities by providing risk-based information to stakeholders in the power sector. Vulnerabilities as well as our understanding of their extent and likelihood change over time. Keeping up with the changes and making informed decisions demands a time-dependent method that incorporates new evidence into risk assessment framework. This study presents a statistical time-dependent risk analysis approach, which allows for life cycle drought risk assessment of thermoelectric power systems. Also, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) extension to the proposed framework is developed. The BBN allows for incorporating new evidence, such as observing power curtailments due to extreme heat or lowflow situations, and updating our knowledge and understanding of the pertinent risk. In sum, the proposed approach can help improve adaptive capacity of the electric power infrastructure, thereby enhancing its resilience to events potentially threatening grid reliability and economic stability. The proposed drought characterization methodology is applied on a daily streamflow series obtained from three United States Geological Survey (USGS) water gauges on the Tennessee River basin. The stochastic water supply risk assessment and projection methods are demonstrated for two power plants on the White River, Indiana: Frank E. Ratts and Petersburg, using water temperature and streamflow time series data obtained from a nearby USGS gauge.

  8. A Stochastic Hybrid Systems framework for analysis of Markov reward models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhople, S.V.; DeVille, L.; Domínguez-García, A.D.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a framework to analyze Markov reward models, which are commonly used in system performability analysis. The framework builds on a set of analytical tools developed for a class of stochastic processes referred to as Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHS). The state space of an SHS is comprised of: (i) a discrete state that describes the possible configurations/modes that a system can adopt, which includes the nominal (non-faulty) operational mode, but also those operational modes that arise due to component faults, and (ii) a continuous state that describes the reward. Discrete state transitions are stochastic, and governed by transition rates that are (in general) a function of time and the value of the continuous state. The evolution of the continuous state is described by a stochastic differential equation and reward measures are defined as functions of the continuous state. Additionally, each transition is associated with a reset map that defines the mapping between the pre- and post-transition values of the discrete and continuous states; these mappings enable the definition of impulses and losses in the reward. The proposed SHS-based framework unifies the analysis of a variety of previously studied reward models. We illustrate the application of the framework to performability analysis via analytical and numerical examples

  9. Stability analysis of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhiwani, R J; Patre, B M

    2011-10-01

    In this paper, the determination of stability margin, gain and phase margin aspects of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems are dealt. The stability analysis of uncertain linear systems with coefficients described by fuzzy functions is studied. A complexity reduced technique for determining the stability margin for FPUS is proposed. The method suggested is dependent on the order of the characteristic polynomial. In order to find the stability margin of interval polynomials of order less than 5, it is not always necessary to determine and check all four Kharitonov's polynomials. It has been shown that, for determining stability margin of FPUS of order five, four, and three we require only 3, 2, and 1 Kharitonov's polynomials respectively. Only for sixth and higher order polynomials, a complete set of Kharitonov's polynomials are needed to determine the stability margin. Thus for lower order systems, the calculations are reduced to a large extent. This idea has been extended to determine the stability margin of fuzzy interval polynomials. It is also shown that the gain and phase margin of FPUS can be determined analytically without using graphical techniques. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Stability of discrete memory states to stochastic fluctuations in neuronal systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Paul; Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2014-01-01

    Noise can degrade memories by causing transitions from one memory state to another. For any biological memory system to be useful, the time scale of such noise-induced transitions must be much longer than the required duration for memory retention. Using biophysically-realistic modeling, we consider two types of memory in the brain: short-term memories maintained by reverberating neuronal activity for a few seconds, and long-term memories maintained by a molecular switch for years. Both systems require persistence of (neuronal or molecular) activity self-sustained by an autocatalytic process and, we argue, that both have limited memory lifetimes because of significant fluctuations. We will first discuss a strongly recurrent cortical network model endowed with feedback loops, for short-term memory. Fluctuations are due to highly irregular spike firing, a salient characteristic of cortical neurons. Then, we will analyze a model for long-term memory, based on an autophosphorylation mechanism of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) molecules. There, fluctuations arise from the fact that there are only a small number of CaMKII molecules at each postsynaptic density (putative synaptic memory unit). Our results are twofold. First, we demonstrate analytically and computationally the exponential dependence of stability on the number of neurons in a self-excitatory network, and on the number of CaMKII proteins in a molecular switch. Second, for each of the two systems, we implement graded memory consisting of a group of bistable switches. For the neuronal network we report interesting ramping temporal dynamics as a result of sequentially switching an increasing number of discrete, bistable, units. The general observation of an exponential increase in memory stability with the system size leads to a trade-off between the robustness of memories (which increases with the size of each bistable unit) and the total amount of information storage (which decreases

  11. A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2018-02-01

    A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

  12. Stochastic interest rates in the analysis of energy investments: Implications on economic performance and sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tolis, Athanasios; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias; Doukelis, Aggelos

    2010-01-01

    A systematic impact assessment of stochastic interest and inflation rates on the analysis of energy investments is presented. A real-options algorithm has been created for this task. Constant interest rates incorporating high risk premium have been extensively used for economic calculations, within the framework of traditional direct cash flow methods, thus favouring immediate, irreversible investments in the expense of, sometimes, insubstantially low anticipated yields. In this article, not only incomes and expenses but also interest and inflation rates are considered stochastically evolving according to specific probabilistic models. The numerical experiments indicated that the stochastic interest rate forecasts fluctuate in such low levels that may signal delayed investment entry in favour of higher expected yields. The implementation of stochastically evolving interest rates in energy investment analysis may have a controversial effect on sustainability. Displacements of inefficient plants may be significantly delayed, thus prolonging high CO 2 emission rates. Under the current CO 2 allowance prices or their medium-term forecasts, this situation may not be improved and flexible policy interventions may be necessitated. (author)

  13. Linear stability analysis of heated parallel channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nourbakhsh, H.P.; Isbin, H.S.

    1982-01-01

    An analyis is presented of thermal hydraulic stability of flow in parallel channels covering the range from inlet subcooling to exit superheat. The model is based on a one-dimensional drift velocity formulation of the two phase flow conservation equations. The system of equations is linearized by assuming small disturbances about the steady state. The dynamic response of the system to an inlet flow perturbation is derived yielding the characteristic equation which predicts the onset of instabilities. A specific application is carried out for homogeneous and regional uniformly heated systems. The particular case of equal characteristic frequencies of two-phase and single phase vapor region is studied in detail. The D-partition method and the Mikhailov stability criterion are used for determining the marginal stability boundary. Stability predictions from the present analysis are compared with the experimental data from the solar test facility. 8 references

  14. Quantum stochastics

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Mou-Hsiung

    2015-01-01

    The classical probability theory initiated by Kolmogorov and its quantum counterpart, pioneered by von Neumann, were created at about the same time in the 1930s, but development of the quantum theory has trailed far behind. Although highly appealing, the quantum theory has a steep learning curve, requiring tools from both probability and analysis and a facility for combining the two viewpoints. This book is a systematic, self-contained account of the core of quantum probability and quantum stochastic processes for graduate students and researchers. The only assumed background is knowledge of the basic theory of Hilbert spaces, bounded linear operators, and classical Markov processes. From there, the book introduces additional tools from analysis, and then builds the quantum probability framework needed to support applications to quantum control and quantum information and communication. These include quantum noise, quantum stochastic calculus, stochastic quantum differential equations, quantum Markov semigrou...

  15. Stochastic sensitivity analysis of periodic attractors in non-autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems based on stroboscopic map

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Kong-Ming, E-mail: kmguo@xidian.edu.cn [School of Electromechanical Engineering, Xidian University, P.O. Box 187, Xi' an 710071 (China); Jiang, Jun, E-mail: jun.jiang@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an 710049 (China)

    2014-07-04

    To apply stochastic sensitivity function method, which can estimate the probabilistic distribution of stochastic attractors, to non-autonomous dynamical systems, a 1/N-period stroboscopic map for a periodic motion is constructed in order to discretize the continuous cycle into a discrete one. In this way, the sensitivity analysis of a cycle for discrete map can be utilized and a numerical algorithm for the stochastic sensitivity analysis of periodic solutions of non-autonomous nonlinear dynamical systems under stochastic disturbances is devised. An external excited Duffing oscillator and a parametric excited laser system are studied as examples to show the validity of the proposed method. - Highlights: • A method to analyze sensitivity of stochastic periodic attractors in non-autonomous dynamical systems is proposed. • Probabilistic distribution around periodic attractors in an external excited Φ{sup 6} Duffing system is obtained. • Probabilistic distribution around a periodic attractor in a parametric excited laser system is determined.

  16. Research on neutron noise analysis stochastic simulation method for α calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong Bin; Shen Huayun; She Ruogu; Zhu Shengdong; Xiao Gang

    2014-01-01

    The prompt decay constant α has significant application on the physical design and safety analysis in nuclear facilities. To overcome the difficulty of a value calculation with Monte-Carlo method, and improve the precision, a new method based on the neutron noise analysis technology was presented. This method employs the stochastic simulation and the theory of neutron noise analysis technology. Firstly, the evolution of stochastic neutron was simulated by discrete-events Monte-Carlo method based on the theory of generalized Semi-Markov process, then the neutron noise in detectors was solved from neutron signal. Secondly, the neutron noise analysis methods such as Rossia method, Feynman-α method, zero-probability method, and cross-correlation method were used to calculate a value. All of the parameters used in neutron noise analysis method were calculated based on auto-adaptive arithmetic. The a value from these methods accords with each other, the largest relative deviation is 7.9%, which proves the feasibility of a calculation method based on neutron noise analysis stochastic simulation. (authors)

  17. A stability analysis of ventilated boiling channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Podowski, M.Z.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    A mathematical model has been developed for the linear stability analysis of a system of ventilated parallel boiling channels. This model accounts for subcooled boiling, an arbitrary heat flux distribution, distributed and local hydraulic losses, heated wall dynamics, slip flow, turbulent mixing and arbitrary flow paths for transverse ventilation. The digital computer program MAZDA-NF was written for numerical evaluation of the mathematical model. Comparison of MAZDA-NF results with those obtained form both a closed form analytical solution and experiment, showed good agreement. A parametric study revealed that such phenomena as subcooled boiling, the transverse coupling between channels (due to cross-flow and mixing) and power skewing can have a significant impact on predicted stability margins. An analysis of an advanced BWR fuel, of the ASEA-ATOM SVEA design, has indicated that transverse ventilation may considerably improve channel stability. (orig.)

  18. A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

    2017-03-13

    Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

  19. Analysis of Chatter Stability in Facing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebdani, S.; Sahli, A.; Rahmani, O.; Boutchicha, D.; Belarbi, A.

    This study attempts to develop a chatter model for predicting chatter stability conditions in hard turning. A linear model is developed by introducing non-uniform load distribution on a tool tip to account for the flank wear effect. Stability analysis based on the root locus method and the harmonic balance method is conducted to determine a critical stability parameter. To validate the model, a series of experiment is carried out to determine the stability limits as well as certain characteristic parameters for facing and straight turning. Chatter in hard turning has the feature that the critical stability limits increase very rapidly when the cutting speed is higher than 13 rev sec-1 for all feed directions. The main contributions of the study are threefold. First, chatter-free cutting conditions are predicted and can be used as a guideline for designing tools and machines. Second, the characteristics of chatter in hard turning, which is observed for the first time, helps to broaden our physical understanding of the interactions between the tool and the workpiece in hard turning. Third, experimental stability limits for different flank wear can contribute to lead more reasonable ways to consider the flank wear effect in chatter models of hard turning. Based on these contributions, the proposed linear chatter model will support to improve the productivity in many manufacturing processes. In addition, the chatter experimental data will be useful to develop other chatter models in hard turning.

  20. Stochastic analysis of the earthquake response of structures with a view to soil-structure interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, J.

    1980-01-01

    Thesis dealing with the analysis of earthquake response of structures. In order to achieve a reliable risk assessment, the results of the seismic risk analysis have to be seen in an overall view together with the results of stochastic vibrational analyses, and the data on maximum supportable stresses of the structure. Taking into account stochastic seismic focus models and calculation methods is of special significance in this connection. Based upon well-known seismic risk assessment models, the calculation of the annual probability for exceeding the acceleration level is carried out also considering the length of the failure zone, assuming that the energy released during an earthquake is uniformly, distributed over this fracture zone. The strong influence of local parameters on the annual exceeding probability is shown by a sensitivity analysis. (orig./RW) [de

  1. Fuzzy stochastic analysis of serviceability and ultimate limit states of two-span pedestrian steel bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kala, Zdeněk; Sandovič, GiedrÄ--

    2012-09-01

    The paper deals with non-linear analysis of ultimate and serviceability limit states of two-span pedestrian steel bridge. The effects of random material and geometrical characteristics on limit states are analyzed. The Monte Carlo method was applied to stochastic analysis. For the serviceability limit state, also influence of fuzzy uncertainty of the limit deflection value on random characteristics of load capacity of variable action was studied. The results prove that, for the type of structure studied, the serviceability limit state is decisive from the point of view of design. The present paper opens a discussion on the use of stochastic analysis to verify the limit deflections given in the standards EUROCODES.

  2. Stochastic sensitivity analysis of the variability of dynamics and transition to chaos in the business cycles model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Ryazanova, Tatyana

    2018-01-01

    A problem of mathematical modeling of complex stochastic processes in macroeconomics is discussed. For the description of dynamics of income and capital stock, the well-known Kaldor model of business cycles is used as a basic example. The aim of the paper is to give an overview of the variety of stochastic phenomena which occur in Kaldor model forced by additive and parametric random noise. We study a generation of small- and large-amplitude stochastic oscillations, and their mixed-mode intermittency. To analyze these phenomena, we suggest a constructive approach combining the study of the peculiarities of deterministic phase portrait, and stochastic sensitivity of attractors. We show how parametric noise can stabilize the unstable equilibrium and transform dynamics of Kaldor system from order to chaos.

  3. Stability analysis of transmission system with high penetration of distributed generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reza, M.

    2006-12-21

    Nowadays, interest in generating electricity using decentralized generators of relatively small scale ('distributed generation', DG) is increasing. This work deals with the impact of implementing DG on the transmission system transient stability, with the emphasis on a potential transition from a 'vertical power system' to a 'horizontal power system. A problem in power systems is maintaining synchronous operation of all (centralized) synchronous machines. This stability problem associated is called rotor angle stability. In this work, the impact of the DG implementation on this is investigated. The impact of DG levels on the system transient stability when the increasing DG level is followed by a reduction of centralized generators in service resulting in a 'vertical to horizontal' transformation of the power system is also investigated. Furthermore, a stochastic analysis is used to study the transient stability of the power systems. The results show that including the stochastic behavior of DG leads to a more complete and detailed view of the system performance. Finally, the situation when the power system is pushed towards a scenario, where DG penetration reaches a level that covers the total load of the original power system (100% DG level) is investigated. The research performed in this work indicates that from the transmission system stability point of view, if higher DG penetration levels are coming up, sufficient inertia and voltage support must be installed. Furthermore, one should be aware of the fact that the system behaves stochastically, especially with DG. To a certain extent regional balancing of power can be performed by local voltage control.

  4. Stability analysis of cylinders with circular cutouts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almroth, B. O.; Brogan, F. A.; Marlowe, M. B.

    1973-01-01

    The stability of axially compressed cylinders with circular cutouts is analyzed numerically. An extension of the finite-difference method is used which removes the requirement that displacement components be defined in the directions of the grid lines. The results of this nonlinear analysis are found to be in good agreement with earlier experimental results.

  5. On the accuracy of mode-superposition analysis of linear systems under stochastic agencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellomo, M.; Di Paola, M.; La Mendola, L.; Muscolino, G.

    1987-01-01

    This paper deals with the response of linear structures using modal reduction. The MAM (mode acceleration method) correction is extended to stochastic analysis in the stationary case. In this framework the response of the given structure must be described in a probabilistic sense and the spectral moments of the nodal response must be computed in order to obtain a full description of the vibratory stochastic phenomenon. In the deterministic analysis the response is substantially made up of two terms, one of which accounts for the dynamic response due to the lower modes while the second accounts for the contribution due to the higher modes. In stochastic analysis the nodal spectral moments are made up of three terms; the first accounts for the spectral moments of the dynamic response due to the lower modes, the second accounts for the spectral moments of input and the third accounts for the cross-spectral moments between the input and the nodal output. The analysis is applied to a 35-storey building subjected to wind multivariate environments. (orig./HP)

  6. High beta and second stability region transport and stability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    This document describes ideal and resistive MHD studies of high-beta plasmas and of the second stability region. Significant progress is reported on the resistive stability properties of high beta poloidal ''supershot'' discharges. For these studies initial profiles were taken from the TRANSP code which is used extensively to analyze experimental data. When an ad hoc method of removing the finite pressure stabilization of tearing modes is implemented it is shown that there is substantial agreement between MHD stability computation and experiment. In particular, the mode structures observed experimentally are consistent with the predictions of the resistive MHD model. We also report on resistive stability near the transition to the second region in TFTR. Tearing modes associated with a nearby infernal mode may explain the increase in MHD activity seen in high beta supershots and which impede the realization of Q∼1. We also report on a collaborative study with PPPL involving sawtooth stabilization with ICRF

  7. Error performance analysis in K-tier uplink cellular networks using a stochastic geometric approach

    KAUST Repository

    Afify, Laila H.

    2015-09-14

    In this work, we develop an analytical paradigm to analyze the average symbol error probability (ASEP) performance of uplink traffic in a multi-tier cellular network. The analysis is based on the recently developed Equivalent-in-Distribution approach that utilizes stochastic geometric tools to account for the network geometry in the performance characterization. Different from the other stochastic geometry models adopted in the literature, the developed analysis accounts for important communication system parameters and goes beyond signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio characterization. That is, the presented model accounts for the modulation scheme, constellation type, and signal recovery techniques to model the ASEP. To this end, we derive single integral expressions for the ASEP for different modulation schemes due to aggregate network interference. Finally, all theoretical findings of the paper are verified via Monte Carlo simulations.

  8. Stochastic Analysis of a Queue Length Model Using a Graphics Processing Unit

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Přikryl, Jan; Kocijan, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 2 (2012), s. 55-62 ISSN 1802-971X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) MEB091015 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : graphics processing unit * GPU * Monte Carlo simulation * computer simulation * modeling Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/prikryl-stochastic analysis of a queue length model using a graphics processing unit.pdf

  9. Stochastic analysis and robust optimization for a deck lid inner panel stamping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hou, Bo; Wang, Wurong; Li, Shuhui; Lin, Zhongqin; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2010-01-01

    FE-simulation and optimization are widely used in the stamping process to improve design quality and shorten development cycle. However, the current simulation and optimization may lead to non-robust results due to not considering the variation of material and process parameters. In this study, a novel stochastic analysis and robust optimization approach is proposed to improve the stamping robustness, where the uncertainties are involved to reflect manufacturing reality. A meta-model based stochastic analysis method is developed, where FE-simulation, uniform design and response surface methodology (RSM) are used to construct meta-model, based on which Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to predict the influence of input parameters variation on the final product quality. By applying the stochastic analysis, uniform design and RSM, the mean and the standard deviation (SD) of product quality are calculated as functions of the controllable process parameters. The robust optimization model composed of mean and SD is constructed and solved, the result of which is compared with the deterministic one to show its advantages. It is demonstrated that the product quality variations are reduced significantly, and quality targets (reject rate) are achieved under the robust optimal solution. The developed approach offers rapid and reliable results for engineers to deal with potential stamping problems during the early phase of product and tooling design, saving more time and resources.

  10. Analysis of a Stochastic Chemical System Close to a SNIPER Bifurcation of Its Mean-Field Model

    KAUST Repository

    Erban, Radek; Chapman, S. Jonathan; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Vejchodský , Tomá š

    2009-01-01

    A framework for the analysis of stochastic models of chemical systems for which the deterministic mean-field description is undergoing a saddle-node infinite period (SNIPER) bifurcation is presented. Such a bifurcation occurs, for example

  11. Pattern theory the stochastic analysis of real-world signals

    CERN Document Server

    Mumford, David

    2010-01-01

    Pattern theory is a distinctive approach to the analysis of all forms of real-world signals. At its core is the design of a large variety of probabilistic models whose samples reproduce the look and feel of the real signals, their patterns, and their variability. Bayesian statistical inference then allows you to apply these models in the analysis of new signals. This book treats the mathematical tools, the models themselves, and the computational algorithms for applying statistics to analyze six representative classes of signals of increasing complexity. The book covers patterns in text, sound

  12. Filtering and control of stochastic jump hybrid systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yao, Xiuming; Zheng, Wei Xing

    2016-01-01

    This book presents recent research work on stochastic jump hybrid systems. Specifically, the considered stochastic jump hybrid systems include Markovian jump Ito stochastic systems, Markovian jump linear-parameter-varying (LPV) systems, Markovian jump singular systems, Markovian jump two-dimensional (2-D) systems, and Markovian jump repeated scalar nonlinear systems. Some sufficient conditions are first established respectively for the stability and performances of those kinds of stochastic jump hybrid systems in terms of solution of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Based on the derived analysis conditions, the filtering and control problems are addressed. The book presents up-to-date research developments and novel methodologies on stochastic jump hybrid systems. The contents can be divided into two parts: the first part is focused on robust filter design problem, while the second part is put the emphasis on robust control problem. These methodologies provide a framework for stability and performance analy...

  13. Life cycle cost analysis of wind power considering stochastic uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Chiao-Ting; Peng, Huei; Sun, Jing

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a long-term cost analysis of wind power and compares its competitiveness to non-renewable generating technologies. The analysis considers several important attributes related to wind intermittency that are sometimes ignored in traditional generation planning or LCOE (levelized cost of energy) studies, including the need for more nameplate capacity due to intermittency, hourly fluctuations in wind outputs and cost for reserves. The competitiveness of wind power is assessed by evaluating four scenarios: 1) adding natural gas generating capacity to the power grid; 2) adding coal generating capacity to the power grid; 3) adding wind capacity to the power grid; and, 4) adding wind capacity and energy storage to the power grid where an energy storage device is used to cover wind intermittency. A case study in the state of Michigan is presented to demonstrate the use of the proposed methodology, in which a time horizon from 2010 to 2040 is considered. The results show that wind energy will still be more expensive than natural gas power plants in the next three decades, but will be cheaper than coal capacities if wind intermittency is mitigated. Furthermore, if the costs of carbon emissions and environmental externalities are considered, wind generation will be a competitive option for grid capacity expansion. - Highlights: • The competitiveness of wind power is analyzed via life cycle cost analysis. • Wind intermittency and reserve costs are explicitly considered in the analysis. • Results show that wind is still more expensive than natural gas power plants. • Wind can be cheaper than coal capacities if wind intermittency is mitigated. • Wind will be competitive if costs of carbon emissions are considered

  14. Flow injection analysis simulations and diffusion coefficient determination by stochastic and deterministic optimization methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucza, Witold

    2013-07-25

    Stochastic and deterministic simulations of dispersion in cylindrical channels on the Poiseuille flow have been presented. The random walk (stochastic) and the uniform dispersion (deterministic) models have been used for computations of flow injection analysis responses. These methods coupled with the genetic algorithm and the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods, respectively, have been applied for determination of diffusion coefficients. The diffusion coefficients of fluorescein sodium, potassium hexacyanoferrate and potassium dichromate have been determined by means of the presented methods and FIA responses that are available in literature. The best-fit results agree with each other and with experimental data thus validating both presented approaches. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A Posteriori Error Analysis of Stochastic Differential Equations Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.; Dawson, C.; Wildey, T.

    2011-01-01

    We develop computable a posteriori error estimates for linear functionals of a solution to a general nonlinear stochastic differential equation with random model/source parameters. These error estimates are based on a variational analysis applied to stochastic Galerkin methods for forward and adjoint problems. The result is a representation for the error estimate as a polynomial in the random model/source parameter. The advantage of this method is that we use polynomial chaos representations for the forward and adjoint systems to cheaply produce error estimates by simple evaluation of a polynomial. By comparison, the typical method of producing such estimates requires repeated forward/adjoint solves for each new choice of random parameter. We present numerical examples showing that there is excellent agreement between these methods. © 2011 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

  16. Stochastic Petri nets for the reliability analysis of communication network applications with alternate-routing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balakrishnan, Meera; Trivedi, Kishor S.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we present a comparative reliability analysis of an application on a corporate B-ISDN network under various alternate-routing protocols. For simple cases, the reliability problem can be cast into fault-tree models and solved rapidly by means of known methods. For more complex scenarios, state space (Markov) models are required. However, generation of large state space models can get very labor intensive and error prone. We advocate the use of stochastic reward nets (a variant of stochastic Petri nets) for the concise specification, automated generation and solution of alternate-routing protocols in networks. This paper is written in a tutorial style so as to make it accessible to a large audience

  17. Development of Fast-Time Stochastic Airport Ground and Runway Simulation Model and Its Traffic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryota Mori

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Airport congestion, in particular congestion of departure aircraft, has already been discussed by other researches. Most solutions, though, fail to account for uncertainties. Since it is difficult to remove uncertainties of the operations in the real world, a strategy should be developed assuming such uncertainties exist. Therefore, this research develops a fast-time stochastic simulation model used to validate various methods in order to decrease airport congestion level under existing uncertainties. The surface movement data is analyzed first, and the uncertainty level is obtained. Next, based on the result of data analysis, the stochastic simulation model is developed. The model is validated statistically and the characteristics of airport operation under existing uncertainties are investigated.

  18. Efficient stochastic EMC/EMI analysis using HDMR-generated surrogate models

    KAUST Repository

    Yücel, Abdulkadir C.

    2011-08-01

    Stochastic methods have been used extensively to quantify effects due to uncertainty in system parameters (e.g. material, geometrical, and electrical constants) and/or excitation on observables pertinent to electromagnetic compatibility and interference (EMC/EMI) analysis (e.g. voltages across mission-critical circuit elements) [1]. In recent years, stochastic collocation (SC) methods, especially those leveraging generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions, have received significant attention [2, 3]. SC-gPC methods probe surrogate models (i.e. compact polynomial input-output representations) to statistically characterize observables. They are nonintrusive, that is they use existing deterministic simulators, and often cost only a fraction of direct Monte-Carlo (MC) methods. Unfortunately, SC-gPC-generated surrogate models often lack accuracy (i) when the number of uncertain/random system variables is large and/or (ii) when the observables exhibit rapid variations. © 2011 IEEE.

  19. A combined stochastic analysis of mean daily temperature and diurnal temperature range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirangelo, B.; Caloiero, T.; Coscarelli, R.; Ferrari, E.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, a stochastic model, previously proposed for the maximum daily temperature, has been improved for the combined analysis of mean daily temperature and diurnal temperature range. In particular, the procedure applied to each variable sequentially performs the deseasonalization, by means of truncated Fourier series expansions, and the normalization of the temperature data, with the use of proper transformation functions. Then, a joint stochastic analysis of both the climatic variables has been performed by means of a FARIMA model, taking into account the stochastic dependency between the variables, namely introducing a cross-correlation between the standardized noises. The model has been applied to five daily temperature series of southern Italy. After the application of a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, the return periods of the joint behavior of the mean daily temperature and the diurnal temperature range have been evaluated. Moreover, the annual maxima of the temperature excursions in consecutive days have been analyzed for the synthetic series. The results obtained showed different behaviors probably linked to the distance from the sea and to the latitude of the station.

  20. Stability analysis of rubblemound breakwater using ANN

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Rao, S.; Manjunath, Y.R.; Kim, D.H.

    relation is not clear. In more practical terms networks are non-linear modeling tools and they can be used to model complex relationship between input and output system. Earlier applications of neural networks for stability analysis of rubble mound.... WORKING PRINCIPLE OF NEURAL NETWORK The feed forward neural networks have ability to approximate any continuous function or complex phenomena into a simple one. The working of neural network as described below. A feed forward neural network as shown...

  1. Financial stability, wealth effects and optimal macroeconomic policy combination in the United Kingdom: A new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ali Nasir

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study derives an optimal macroeconomic policy combination for financial sector stability in the United Kingdom by employing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE framework. The empirical results obtained show that disciplined fiscal and accommodative monetary policies stance is optimal for financial sector stability. Furthermore, fiscal indiscipline countered by contractionary monetary stance adversely affects financial sector stability. Financial markets, e.g. stocks and Gilts show a short-term asymmetric response to macroeconomic policy interaction and to each other. The asymmetry is a reflection of portfolio adjustment. However in the long-run, the responses to suggested optimal policy combination had homogenous effects and there was evidence of co-movement in the stock and Gilt markets.

  2. Steady State Analysis of Stochastic Systems with Multiple Time Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, W.; Sun, C. Y.; Zhang, H. Q.

    In this paper, attention is focused on the steady state analysis of a class of nonlinear dynamic systems with multi-delayed feedbacks driven by multiplicative correlated Gaussian white noises. The Fokker-Planck equations for delayed variables are at first derived by Novikov's theorem. Then, under small delay assumption, the approximate stationary solutions are obtained by the probability density approach. As a special case, the effects of multidelay feedbacks and the correlated additive and multiplicative Gaussian white noises on the response of a bistable system are considered. It is shown that the obtained analytical results are in good agreement with experimental results in Monte Carlo simulations.

  3. Stochastic filtering of quantitative data from STR DNA analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tvedebrink, Torben; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Mogensen, Helle Smidt

    due to the apparatus used for measurements). Pull-up effects (more systematic increase caused by overlap in the spectrum) Stutters (peaks located four basepairs before the true peak). We present filtering techniques for all three technical artifacts based on statistical analysis of data from......The quantitative data observed from analysing STR DNA is a mixture of contributions from various sources. Apart from the true allelic peaks, the observed signal consists of at least three components resulting from the measurement technique and the PCR amplification: Background noise (random noise...... controlled experiments conducted at The Section of Forensic Genetics, Department of Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universityof Copenhagen, Denmark....

  4. STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE AND ANALYSIS OF ODI BATTING PERFORMANCE: THE INDIAN CRICKET TEAM, 1989-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uday Damodaran

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Relative to other team games, the contribution of individual team members to the overall team performance is more easily quantifiable in cricket. Viewing players as securities and the team as a portfolio, cricket thus lends itself better to the use of analytical methods usually employed in the analysis of securities and portfolios. This paper demonstrates the use of stochastic dominance rules, normally used in investment management, to analyze the One Day International (ODI batting performance of Indian cricketers. The data used span the years 1989 to 2005. In dealing with cricketing data the existence of 'not out' scores poses a problem while processing the data. In this paper, using a Bayesian approach, the 'not-out' scores are first replaced with a conditional average. The conditional average that is used represents an estimate of the score that the player would have gone on to score, if the 'not out' innings had been completed. The data thus treated are then used in the stochastic dominance analysis. To use stochastic dominance rules we need to characterize the 'utility' of a batsman. The first derivative of the utility function, with respect to runs scored, of an ODI batsman can safely be assumed to be positive (more runs scored are preferred to less. However, the second derivative needs not be negative (no diminishing marginal utility for runs scored. This means that we cannot clearly specify whether the value attached to an additional run scored is lesser at higher levels of scores. Because of this, only first-order stochastic dominance is used to analyze the performance of the players under consideration. While this has its limitation (specifically, we cannot arrive at a complete utility value for each batsman, the approach does well in describing player performance. Moreover, the results have intuitive appeal

  5. Nonlinear physical systems spectral analysis, stability and bifurcations

    CERN Document Server

    Kirillov, Oleg N

    2013-01-01

    Bringing together 18 chapters written by leading experts in dynamical systems, operator theory, partial differential equations, and solid and fluid mechanics, this book presents state-of-the-art approaches to a wide spectrum of new and challenging stability problems.Nonlinear Physical Systems: Spectral Analysis, Stability and Bifurcations focuses on problems of spectral analysis, stability and bifurcations arising in the nonlinear partial differential equations of modern physics. Bifurcations and stability of solitary waves, geometrical optics stability analysis in hydro- and magnetohydrodynam

  6. Stochastic ground-water flow analysis FY-81 status report. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kincaid, C.T.; Vail, L.W.; Devary, J.L.

    1983-07-01

    Research was conducted at Pacific Northwest Laboratory to develop a research computational package for the stochastic analysis of ground-water flow. Both unsteady and steady-state analysis were examined, and a steady-state research code was developed for the study of stochastic processes. This report describes the theoretical development of both unsteady and steady analyses, and presents the preliminary studies undertaken to verify and exercise the encoded algorithm. The stochastic analysis of ground-water flow is a promising new method which can supply more comprehensive analyses of the ground-water environment. The work reported herein provided experience in the methodology while producing a research-oriented stochastic analysis capability. Single-layer aquifers of horizontal extent were selected for this effort. Kriging has been employed to describe the uncertainty in field data. The resulting stochastic parameters enter the problem physics through boundary conditions and Darcy's equation. The mean and variance of the piezometric head are estimated by the stochastic analysis

  7. Prioritization of sediment management alternatives using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Guerra, Manuel; Canis, Laure; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos; Viguri, Javier R.; Linkov, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Decision-making for sediment management is a complex task that requires the consideration of temporal and spatial impacts of several remedial alternatives as well as the associated economic, social and political impact. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is becoming increasingly recognized as an important environmental management tool that can be used to support the selection of suitable remediation alternatives and prioritization of management units in space and time. This paper proposes an MCDA framework for prioritizing sediment management alternatives. This framework involves identifying of a set of feasible options, as well as defining and evaluating criteria which integrate relevant technical, economic, social and environmental aspects of remedies. The methodology allows an explicit consideration of uncertainty in criteria scores and weights by assigning probability distributions and analyzing subsequent Monte-Carlo simulations. The consideration of different stakeholder simulated values is used to assess the robustness of alternative rankings and to guide the selection of remediation options. An application of this methodology to a case study in the Bay of Santander, Spain, is presented. An assessment is conducted for the case of unknown preferences as well as for hypothetical preferences profiles for four types of stakeholders: Idealist, Politician, Environmentalist and Balanced. The results are used to visualize stakeholder positions and potential disagreements, allowing for the identification of a group of least preferred alternatives for each stakeholder. Stakeholder involvement has the potential to ease the remedy selection process during all stages of the decision-making process and to eventually remedy implementation.

  8. Combined action of time-delay and colored cross-associated multiplicative and additive noises on stability and stochastic resonance for a stochastic metapopulation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang-Kang; Zong, De-Cai; Wang, Ya-Jun; Li, Sheng-Hong

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, the transition between the stable state of a big density and the extinction state and stochastic resonance (SR) for a time-delayed metapopulation system disturbed by colored cross-correlated noises are investigated. By applying the fast descent method, the small time-delay approximation and McNamara and Wiesenfeld's SR theory, we investigate the impacts of time-delay, the multiplicative, additive noises and colored cross-correlated noise on the SNR and the shift between the two states of the system. Numerical results show that the multiplicative, additive noises and time-delay can all speed up the transition from the stable state to the extinction state, while the correlation noise and its correlation time can slow down the extinction process of the population system. With respect to SNR, the multiplicative noise always weakens the SR effect, while noise correlation time plays a dual role in motivating the SR phenomenon. Meanwhile, time-delay mainly plays a negative role in stimulating the SR phenomenon. Conversely, it could motivate the SR effect to increase the strength of the cross-correlation noise in the SNR-β plot, while the increase of additive noise intensity will firstly excite SR, and then suppress the SR effect.

  9. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lutaif, N.A. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Palazzo, R. Jr [Departamento de Telemática, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e Computação, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Gontijo, J.A.R. [Departamento de Clínica Médica, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2014-01-17

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

  10. Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutaif, N.A.; Palazzo, R. Jr; Gontijo, J.A.R.

    2014-01-01

    Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile

  11. Long-time analytic approximation of large stochastic oscillators: Simulation, analysis and inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgos Minas

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to analyse large complex stochastic dynamical models such as those studied in systems biology there is currently a great need for both analytical tools and also algorithms for accurate and fast simulation and estimation. We present a new stochastic approximation of biological oscillators that addresses these needs. Our method, called phase-corrected LNA (pcLNA overcomes the main limitations of the standard Linear Noise Approximation (LNA to remain uniformly accurate for long times, still maintaining the speed and analytically tractability of the LNA. As part of this, we develop analytical expressions for key probability distributions and associated quantities, such as the Fisher Information Matrix and Kullback-Leibler divergence and we introduce a new approach to system-global sensitivity analysis. We also present algorithms for statistical inference and for long-term simulation of oscillating systems that are shown to be as accurate but much faster than leaping algorithms and algorithms for integration of diffusion equations. Stochastic versions of published models of the circadian clock and NF-κB system are used to illustrate our results.

  12. Stochasticity in the enterococcal sex pheromone response revealed by quantitative analysis of transcription in single cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Rebecca J; Bandyopadhyay, Arpan; O'Brien, Sofie A; Barnes, Aaron M T; Hunter, Ryan C; Hu, Wei-Shou; Dunny, Gary M

    2017-07-01

    In Enterococcus faecalis, sex pheromone-mediated transfer of antibiotic resistance plasmids can occur under unfavorable conditions, for example, when inducing pheromone concentrations are low and inhibiting pheromone concentrations are high. To better understand this paradox, we adapted fluorescence in situ hybridization chain reaction (HCR) methodology for simultaneous quantification of multiple E. faecalis transcripts at the single cell level. We present direct evidence for variability in the minimum period, maximum response level, and duration of response of individual cells to a specific inducing condition. Tracking of induction patterns of single cells temporally using a fluorescent reporter supported HCR findings. It also revealed subpopulations of rapid responders, even under low inducing pheromone concentrations where the overall response of the entire population was slow. The strong, rapid induction of small numbers of cells in cultures exposed to low pheromone concentrations is in agreement with predictions of a stochastic model of the enterococcal pheromone response. The previously documented complex regulatory circuitry controlling the pheromone response likely contributes to stochastic variation in this system. In addition to increasing our basic understanding of the biology of a horizontal gene transfer system regulated by cell-cell signaling, demonstration of the stochastic nature of the pheromone response also impacts any future efforts to develop therapeutic agents targeting the system. Quantitative single cell analysis using HCR also has great potential to elucidate important bacterial regulatory mechanisms not previously amenable to study at the single cell level, and to accelerate the pace of functional genomic studies.

  13. Parametric sensitivity analysis for stochastic molecular systems using information theoretic metrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsourtis, Anastasios, E-mail: tsourtis@uoc.gr [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, Crete (Greece); Pantazis, Yannis, E-mail: pantazis@math.umass.edu; Katsoulakis, Markos A., E-mail: markos@math.umass.edu [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States); Harmandaris, Vagelis, E-mail: harman@uoc.gr [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Crete, and Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics (IACM), Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH), GR-70013 Heraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2015-07-07

    In this paper, we present a parametric sensitivity analysis (SA) methodology for continuous time and continuous space Markov processes represented by stochastic differential equations. Particularly, we focus on stochastic molecular dynamics as described by the Langevin equation. The utilized SA method is based on the computation of the information-theoretic (and thermodynamic) quantity of relative entropy rate (RER) and the associated Fisher information matrix (FIM) between path distributions, and it is an extension of the work proposed by Y. Pantazis and M. A. Katsoulakis [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 054115 (2013)]. A major advantage of the pathwise SA method is that both RER and pathwise FIM depend only on averages of the force field; therefore, they are tractable and computable as ergodic averages from a single run of the molecular dynamics simulation both in equilibrium and in non-equilibrium steady state regimes. We validate the performance of the extended SA method to two different molecular stochastic systems, a standard Lennard-Jones fluid and an all-atom methane liquid, and compare the obtained parameter sensitivities with parameter sensitivities on three popular and well-studied observable functions, namely, the radial distribution function, the mean squared displacement, and the pressure. Results show that the RER-based sensitivities are highly correlated with the observable-based sensitivities.

  14. Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

  15. Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

    2017-12-21

    Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

  16. Stochastic resonance is applied to quantitative analysis for weak chromatographic signal of glyburide in plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wei; Xiang Bingren; Wu Yanwei; Shang Erxin

    2005-01-01

    Based on the theory of stochastic resonance, a new method carried on the quantitive analysis to weak chromatographic signal of glyburide in plasma, which was embedded in the noise background and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of HPLC-UV is enhanced remarkably. This method enhances the quantification limit to 1 ng ml -1 , which is the same as HPLC-MS, and makes it possible to detect the weak signal accurately by HPLC-UV, which was not suitable before. The results showed good recovery and linear range from 1 to 50 ng ml -1 of glyburide in plasma and the method can be used for quantitative analysis of glyburide

  17. Stability Analysis and Stabilization of Miduk Heap Leaching Structure, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Amini

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available To construct copper heap leaching structures, a stepped heap of ore is placed over an isolated sloping surface and then washed with sulphuric acid. The isolated bed of such a heap consists of some natural and geosynthetic layers. Shear strength parameters between these layers are low, so they form the possible sliding surfaces of the heaps. Economic and environmental considerations call for studying such slides. In this study, firstly, results of the laboratory tests carried on the materials of the heap leaching structures bed are presented. Then, the instability mechanisms of such structures are investigated and proper approaches are summarized for their stabilization. Finally, stability of the Miduk copper heap is evaluated as a case history, and appropriate approaches and their effects are discussed for its stabilization.

  18. Stochastic and Statistical Analysis of Utility Revenues and Weather Data Analysis for Consumer Demand Estimation in Smart Grids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, S M; Mehmood, C A; Khan, B; Jawad, M; Farid, U; Jadoon, J K; Ali, M; Tareen, N K; Usman, S; Majid, M; Anwar, S M

    2016-01-01

    In smart grid paradigm, the consumer demands are random and time-dependent, owning towards stochastic probabilities. The stochastically varying consumer demands have put the policy makers and supplying agencies in a demanding position for optimal generation management. The utility revenue functions are highly dependent on the consumer deterministic stochastic demand models. The sudden drifts in weather parameters effects the living standards of the consumers that in turn influence the power demands. Considering above, we analyzed stochastically and statistically the effect of random consumer demands on the fixed and variable revenues of the electrical utilities. Our work presented the Multi-Variate Gaussian Distribution Function (MVGDF) probabilistic model of the utility revenues with time-dependent consumer random demands. Moreover, the Gaussian probabilities outcome of the utility revenues is based on the varying consumer n demands data-pattern. Furthermore, Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulations are performed that validated the factor of accuracy in the aforesaid probabilistic demand-revenue model. We critically analyzed the effect of weather data parameters on consumer demands using correlation and multi-linear regression schemes. The statistical analysis of consumer demands provided a relationship between dependent (demand) and independent variables (weather data) for utility load management, generation control, and network expansion.

  19. Probabilistic stability analysis: the way forward for stability analysis of sustainable power systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milanović, Jovica V

    2017-08-13

    Future power systems will be significantly different compared with their present states. They will be characterized by an unprecedented mix of a wide range of electricity generation and transmission technologies, as well as responsive and highly flexible demand and storage devices with significant temporal and spatial uncertainty. The importance of probabilistic approaches towards power system stability analysis, as a subsection of power system studies routinely carried out by power system operators, has been highlighted in previous research. However, it may not be feasible (or even possible) to accurately model all of the uncertainties that exist within a power system. This paper describes for the first time an integral approach to probabilistic stability analysis of power systems, including small and large angular stability and frequency stability. It provides guidance for handling uncertainties in power system stability studies and some illustrative examples of the most recent results of probabilistic stability analysis of uncertain power systems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  20. Airfoil stall interpreted through linear stability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busquet, Denis; Juniper, Matthew; Richez, Francois; Marquet, Olivier; Sipp, Denis

    2017-11-01

    Although airfoil stall has been widely investigated, the origin of this phenomenon, which manifests as a sudden drop of lift, is still not clearly understood. In the specific case of static stall, multiple steady solutions have been identified experimentally and numerically around the stall angle. We are interested here in investigating the stability of these steady solutions so as to first model and then control the dynamics. The study is performed on a 2D helicopter blade airfoil OA209 at low Mach number, M 0.2 and high Reynolds number, Re 1.8 ×106 . Steady RANS computation using a Spalart-Allmaras model is coupled with continuation methods (pseudo-arclength and Newton's method) to obtain steady states for several angles of incidence. The results show one upper branch (high lift), one lower branch (low lift) connected by a middle branch, characterizing an hysteresis phenomenon. A linear stability analysis performed around these equilibrium states highlights a mode responsible for stall, which starts with a low frequency oscillation. A bifurcation scenario is deduced from the behaviour of this mode. To shed light on the nonlinear behavior, a low order nonlinear model is created with the same linear stability behavior as that observed for that airfoil.

  1. Stability analysis of cylindrical Vlasov equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, R.W.

    1979-01-01

    A general method of stability analysis is described which may be applied to a large class of such problems, namely those which are described dynamically by the Vlasov equation, and geometrically by cylindrical symmetry. The method is presented for the simple case of the Vlasov-Poisson (electrostatic) equations, and the results are applied to a calculation of the lower-hybrid-drift instability in a plasma with a rigid rotor distribution function. The method is extended to the full Vlasov-Maxwell (electromagnetic) equations. These results are applied to a calculation of the instability of the extraordinary electromagnetic mode in a relativistic E-layer interacting with a background plasma

  2. Stability analysis of cylindrical Vlasov equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, R.W.

    1979-01-01

    A general method of stability analysis is described which may be applied to a large class of such problems, namely those which are described dynamically by the Vlasov equation, and geometrically by clindrical symmetry. The method is presented for the simple case of the Vlasov-Poisson (electrostatic) equations, and the results are applied to a calculation of the lower-hybrid-drift instability in a plasma with a rigid rotor distribution function. The method is extended to the full Vlasov-Maxwell (electromagnetic) equations. These results are applied to a calculation of the instability of the extraordinary electromagnetic mode in a relativistic E-layer interacting with a background plasma

  3. Aircraft nonlinear stability analysis and multidimensional stability region estimation under icing conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang QU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Icing is one of the crucial factors that could pose great threat to flight safety, and thus research on stability and stability region of aircraft safety under icing conditions is significant for control and flight. Nonlinear dynamical equations and models of aerodynamic coefficients of an aircraft are set up in this paper to study the stability and stability region of the aircraft under an icing condition. Firstly, the equilibrium points of the iced aircraft system are calculated and analyzed based on the theory of differential equation stability. Secondly, according to the correlation theory about equilibrium points and the stability region, this paper estimates the multidimensional stability region of the aircraft, based on which the stability regions before and after icing are compared. Finally, the results are confirmed by the time history analysis. The results can give a reference for stability analysis and envelope protection of the nonlinear system of an iced aircraft.

  4. Stochastic multi-scale analysis of homogenised properties considering uncertainties in cellular solid microstructures using a first-order perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khairul Salleh Basaruddin

    Full Text Available Randomness in the microstructure due to variations in microscopic properties and geometrical information is used to predict the stochastically homogenised properties of cellular media. Two stochastic problems at the micro-scale level that commonly occur due to fabrication inaccuracies, degradation mechanisms or natural heterogeneity were analysed using a stochastic homogenisation method based on a first-order perturbation. First, the influence of Young's modulus variation in an adhesive on the macroscopic properties of an aluminium-adhesive honeycomb structure was investigated. The fluctuations in the microscopic properties were then combined by varying the microstructure periodicity in a corrugated-core sandwich plate to obtain the variation of the homogenised property. The numerical results show that the uncertainties in the microstructure affect the dispersion of the homogenised property. These results indicate the importance of the presented stochastic multi-scale analysis for the design and fabrication of cellular solids when considering microscopic random variation.

  5. Relatively slow stochastic gene-state switching in the presence of positive feedback significantly broadens the region of bimodality through stabilizing the uninduced phenotypic state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Hao; Wu, Pingping; Qian, Hong; Xie, Xiaoliang Sunney

    2018-03-01

    Within an isogenic population, even in the same extracellular environment, individual cells can exhibit various phenotypic states. The exact role of stochastic gene-state switching regulating the transition among these phenotypic states in a single cell is not fully understood, especially in the presence of positive feedback. Recent high-precision single-cell measurements showed that, at least in bacteria, switching in gene states is slow relative to the typical rates of active transcription and translation. Hence using the lac operon as an archetype, in such a region of operon-state switching, we present a fluctuating-rate model for this classical gene regulation module, incorporating the more realistic operon-state switching mechanism that was recently elucidated. We found that the positive feedback mechanism induces bistability (referred to as deterministic bistability), and that the parameter range for its occurrence is significantly broadened by stochastic operon-state switching. We further show that in the absence of positive feedback, operon-state switching must be extremely slow to trigger bistability by itself. However, in the presence of positive feedback, which stabilizes the induced state, the relatively slow operon-state switching kinetics within the physiological region are sufficient to stabilize the uninduced state, together generating a broadened parameter region of bistability (referred to as stochastic bistability). We illustrate the opposite phenotype-transition rate dependence upon the operon-state switching rates in the two types of bistability, with the aid of a recently proposed rate formula for fluctuating-rate models. The rate formula also predicts a maximal transition rate in the intermediate region of operon-state switching, which is validated by numerical simulations in our model. Overall, our findings suggest a biological function of transcriptional "variations" among genetically identical cells, for the emergence of bistability and

  6. Modelling and Analysis of Smart Grid: A Stochastic Model Checking Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Zhu, Huibiao; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2012-01-01

    that require novel methods and applications. In this context, an important issue is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese Smart Grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy......Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology functions to the physical elements of a system for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... consumption. We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

  7. Quantitative modelling and analysis of a Chinese smart grid: a stochastic model checking case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology with the physical elements of a system, mainly for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... that require novel methods and applications. One of the important issues in this context is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese smart grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy...... consumption.We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

  8. Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

    2014-09-01

    The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

  9. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  10. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  11. 'PSA-SPN' - A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Method Using Stochastic Petri Nets: Application to a Production Line System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labadi, Karim; Saggadi, Samira; Amodeo, Lionel

    2009-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of a discrete event dynamic system can be significantly affected for some uncertain changes in its decision parameters. So, parameter sensitivity analysis would be a useful way in studying the effects of these changes on the system performance. In the past, the sensitivity analysis approaches are frequently based on simulation models. In recent years, formal methods based on stochastic process including Markov process are proposed in the literature. In this paper, we are interested in the parameter sensitivity analysis of discrete event dynamic systems by using stochastic Petri nets models as a tool for modelling and performance evaluation. A sensitivity analysis approach based on stochastic Petri nets, called PSA-SPN method, will be proposed with an application to a production line system.

  12. Voltage stability analysis using a modified continuation load flow ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper addresses the rising problem of identifying the voltage stability limits of load buses in a power system and how to optimally place capacitor banks for voltage stability improvement. This paper uses the concept of the continuation power flow analysis used in voltage stability analysis. It uses the modified ...

  13. A moment-convergence method for stochastic analysis of biochemical reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiajun; Nie, Qing; Zhou, Tianshou

    2016-05-21

    Traditional moment-closure methods need to assume that high-order cumulants of a probability distribution approximate to zero. However, this strong assumption is not satisfied for many biochemical reaction networks. Here, we introduce convergent moments (defined in mathematics as the coefficients in the Taylor expansion of the probability-generating function at some point) to overcome this drawback of the moment-closure methods. As such, we develop a new analysis method for stochastic chemical kinetics. This method provides an accurate approximation for the master probability equation (MPE). In particular, the connection between low-order convergent moments and rate constants can be more easily derived in terms of explicit and analytical forms, allowing insights that would be difficult to obtain through direct simulation or manipulation of the MPE. In addition, it provides an accurate and efficient way to compute steady-state or transient probability distribution, avoiding the algorithmic difficulty associated with stiffness of the MPE due to large differences in sizes of rate constants. Applications of the method to several systems reveal nontrivial stochastic mechanisms of gene expression dynamics, e.g., intrinsic fluctuations can induce transient bimodality and amplify transient signals, and slow switching between promoter states can increase fluctuations in spatially heterogeneous signals. The overall approach has broad applications in modeling, analysis, and computation of complex biochemical networks with intrinsic noise.

  14. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-01-01

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model

  15. Analysis methods of stochastic transient electro–magnetic processes in electric traction system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Mishchenko

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The essence and basic characteristics of calculation methods of transient electromagnetic processes in the elements and devices of non–linear dynamic electric traction systems taking into account the stochastic changes of voltages and currents in traction networks of power supply subsystem and power circuits of electric rolling stock are developed. Methodology. Classical methods and the methods of non–linear electric engineering, as well as probability theory method, especially the methods of stationary ergodic and non–stationary stochastic processes application are used in the research. Findings. Using the above-mentioned methods an equivalent circuit and the system of nonlinear integra–differential equations for electromagnetic condition of the double–track inter-substation zone of alternating current electric traction system are drawn up. Calculations allow obtaining electric traction current distribution in the areas of feeder zones. Originality. First of all the paper is interesting and important from scientific point of view due to the methods, which allow taking into account probabilistic character of change for traction voltages and electric traction system currents. On the second hand the researches develop the most efficient methods of nonlinear circuits’ analysis. Practical value. The practical value of the research is presented in application of the methods to the analysis of electromagnetic and electric energy processes in the traction power supply system in the case of high-speed train traffic.

  16. Measuring the Efficiency of a Hospital based on the Econometric Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Satar; Zandian, Hamed; Baniasadi, Akram; Moghadam, Telma Zahirian; Delavari, Somayeh; Delavari, Sajad

    2016-02-01

    Hospitals are the most expensive health services provider in the world. Therefore, the evaluation of their performance can be used to reduce costs. The aim of this study was to determine the efficiency of the hospitals at the Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This was a cross-sectional and retrospective study that assessed the performance of Kurdistan teaching hospitals (n = 12) between 2007 and 2013. The Stochastic Frontier Analysis method was used to achieve this aim. The numbers of active beds, nurses, physicians, and other staff members were considered as input variables, while the inpatient admission was considered as the output. The data were analyzed using Frontier 4.1 software. The mean technical efficiency of the hospitals we studied was 0.67. The results of the Cobb-Douglas production function showed that the maximum elasticity was related to the active beds and the elasticity of nurses was negative. Also, the return to scale was increasing. The results of this study indicated that the performances of the hospitals were not appropriate in terms of technical efficiency. In addition, there was a capacity enhancement of the output of the hospitals, compared with the most efficient hospitals studied, of about33%. It is suggested that the effect of various factors, such as the quality of health care and the patients' satisfaction, be considered in the future studies to assess hospitals' performances.

  17. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-06-12

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.

  18. A moment-convergence method for stochastic analysis of biochemical reaction networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jiajun [School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Nie, Qing [Department of Mathematics, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, California 92697 (United States); Zhou, Tianshou, E-mail: mcszhtsh@mail.sysu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Computational Science and School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)

    2016-05-21

    Traditional moment-closure methods need to assume that high-order cumulants of a probability distribution approximate to zero. However, this strong assumption is not satisfied for many biochemical reaction networks. Here, we introduce convergent moments (defined in mathematics as the coefficients in the Taylor expansion of the probability-generating function at some point) to overcome this drawback of the moment-closure methods. As such, we develop a new analysis method for stochastic chemical kinetics. This method provides an accurate approximation for the master probability equation (MPE). In particular, the connection between low-order convergent moments and rate constants can be more easily derived in terms of explicit and analytical forms, allowing insights that would be difficult to obtain through direct simulation or manipulation of the MPE. In addition, it provides an accurate and efficient way to compute steady-state or transient probability distribution, avoiding the algorithmic difficulty associated with stiffness of the MPE due to large differences in sizes of rate constants. Applications of the method to several systems reveal nontrivial stochastic mechanisms of gene expression dynamics, e.g., intrinsic fluctuations can induce transient bimodality and amplify transient signals, and slow switching between promoter states can increase fluctuations in spatially heterogeneous signals. The overall approach has broad applications in modeling, analysis, and computation of complex biochemical networks with intrinsic noise.

  19. Truck Roll Stability Data Collection and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, SS

    2001-07-02

    The principal objective of this project was to collect and analyze vehicle and highway data that are relevant to the problem of truck rollover crashes, and in particular to the subset of rollover crashes that are caused by the driver error of entering a curve at a speed too great to allow safe completion of the turn. The data are of two sorts--vehicle dynamic performance data, and highway geometry data as revealed by vehicle behavior in normal driving. Vehicle dynamic performance data are relevant because the roll stability of a tractor trailer depends both on inherent physical characteristics of the vehicle and on the weight and distribution of the particular cargo that is being carried. Highway geometric data are relevant because the set of crashes of primary interest to this study are caused by lateral acceleration demand in a curve that exceeds the instantaneous roll stability of the vehicle. An analysis of data quality requires an evaluation of the equipment used to collect the data because the reliability and accuracy of both the equipment and the data could profoundly affect the safety of the driver and other highway users. Therefore, a concomitant objective was an evaluation of the performance of the set of data-collection equipment on the truck and trailer. The objective concerning evaluation of the equipment was accomplished, but the results were not entirely positive. Significant engineering apparently remains to be done before a reliable system can be fielded. Problems were identified with the trailer to tractor fiber optic connector used for this test. In an over-the-road environment, the communication between the trailer instrumentation and the tractor must be dependable. In addition, the computer in the truck must be able to withstand the rigors of the road. The major objective--data collection and analysis--was also accomplished. Using data collected by instruments on the truck, a ''bad-curve'' database can be generated. Using

  20. BWR stability analysis at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wulff, W.; Cheng, H.S.; Mallen, A.N.; Rohatgi, U.S.

    1991-01-01

    Following the unexpected, but safely terminated, power and flow oscillations in the LaSalle-2 Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) on March 9, 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and of Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) requested that the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) carry out BWR stability analyses, centered around fourteen specific questions. Ten of the fourteen questions address BWR stability issues in general and are dealt with in this paper. The other four questions address local, out-of-phase oscillations and matters of instrumentation; they fall outside the scope of the work reported here. It was the purpose of the work documented in this report to answer ten of the fourteen NRC-stipulated questions. Nine questions are answered by analyzing the LaSalle-2 instability and related BWR transients with the BNL Engineering Plant Analyzer (EPA) and by performing an uncertainty assessment of the EPA predictions. The tenth question is answered on the basis of first principles. The ten answers are summarized

  1. Nonparallel linear stability analysis of unconfined vortices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrada, M. A.; Barrero, A.

    2004-10-01

    Parabolized stability equations [F. P. Bertolotti, Th. Herbert, and P. R. Spalart, J. Fluid. Mech. 242, 441 (1992)] have been used to study the stability of a family of swirling jets at high Reynolds numbers whose velocity and pressure fields decay far from the axis as rm-2 and r2(m-2), respectively [M. Pérez-Saborid, M. A. Herrada, A. Gómez-Barea, and A. Barrero, J. Fluid. Mech. 471, 51 (2002)]; r is the radial distance and m is a real number in the interval 0analysis shows the convective nature of these instabilities. Therefore, a criterion based on the transition from convective to absolute instabilities cannot be applied to predict the vortex breakdown of this kind of swirling jets. On the contrary, the failure of the quasicylindrical approximation used to compute the downstream evolution of the basic flow gives a clear breakdown criterion based on the catastrophic transition between slender and nonslender flows.

  2. The Analysis Stability of Anchor Retaining Wall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benamara, F. Z.; Belabed, L

    2011-01-01

    The construction of anchored retaining walls reach every day in the field of Civil Engineering especially in public works. Their dimensioning and stability are the axes of research for geotechnical. The rule is to reduce the active forces of the slide and increase the effective normal stress on the rupture surface. So that, we anchored tied-back (constituted by steel cables) in the stable ground located under the failure surface and we apply at the top a traction force. This effort can be distributed over the ground surface by means of small plates or massive reinforced concrete. The study of the stability of anchored retaining wall was also performed by using software GEO4. Many cases can be solved using analytical solutions available in the group GEO4 program, but for our standard model solution studied analytically proved unsatisfactory so we used a numerical analysis based on the method of finite element in this program. The results obtained by numerical study were interpreted to identify the precision numerical predictions. Moreover these methods were useful and economics in the realization of reinforced slopes by tied-buck. (author)

  3. A stochastic analysis of the decision to produce biomass crops in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clancy, Daragh; Breen, James P.; Thorne, Fiona; Wallace, Michael

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing interest in biomass crops as an alternative farm activity. However farmer concerns about the production and financial risks associated with growing these crops may be impeding the actual rates of adoption. The uncertainty surrounding risky variables such as the costs of production, yield level, price per tonne and opportunity cost of land make it difficult to accurately calculate the returns to biomass crops. Their lengthy production lifespan may only serve to heighten the level of risk that affects key variables. A stochastic budgeting model is used to estimate distributions of returns from willow and miscanthus in Ireland. The opportunity cost of land is accounted for through the inclusion of the foregone returns from selected conventional agricultural activities. The impact on biomass returns of bioremediation is also examined. The Net Present Values (NPVs) of various biomass investment options are simulated to ascertain the full distribution of possible returns. The results of these simulations are then compared using their respective Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) and the investments are ranked using Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function (SERF). While the distributions of investment returns for miscanthus are wider than those of willow, implying greater risk, the distribution of willow returns is predominantly to the left of zero indicating that such an investment has an extremely high probability of generating a negative return. The results from the SERF analysis show that miscanthus generally has higher certainty equivalents (CEs), and therefore farmers would be more likely to invest in miscanthus rather than willow. -- Highlights: ► We develop a stochastic budgeting model to capture uncertainty in key variables. ► Farmers with higher levels of risk aversion would be unwilling to invest in biomass crops. ► Miscanthus has a greater probability of making a profit than willow. ► Bioremediation can help to offset

  4. Stochastic thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichhorn, Ralf; Aurell, Erik

    2014-04-01

    theory for small deviations from equilibrium, in which a general framework is constructed from the analysis of non-equilibrium states close to equilibrium. In a next step, Prigogine and others developed linear irreversible thermodynamics, which establishes relations between transport coefficients and entropy production on a phenomenological level in terms of thermodynamic forces and fluxes. However, beyond the realm of linear response no general theoretical results were available for quite a long time. This situation has changed drastically over the last 20 years with the development of stochastic thermodynamics, revealing that the range of validity of thermodynamic statements can indeed be extended deep into the non-equilibrium regime. Early developments in that direction trace back to the observations of symmetry relations between the probabilities for entropy production and entropy annihilation in non-equilibrium steady states [5-8] (nowadays categorized in the class of so-called detailed fluctuation theorems), and the derivations of the Bochkov-Kuzovlev [9, 10] and Jarzynski relations [11] (which are now classified as so-called integral fluctuation theorems). Apart from its fundamental theoretical interest, the developments in stochastic thermodynamics have experienced an additional boost from the recent experimental progress in fabricating, manipulating, controlling and observing systems on the micro- and nano-scale. These advances are not only of formidable use for probing and monitoring biological processes on the cellular, sub-cellular and molecular level, but even include the realization of a microscopic thermodynamic heat engine [12] or the experimental verification of Landauer's principle in a colloidal system [13]. The scientific program Stochastic Thermodynamics held between 4 and 15 March 2013, and hosted by The Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita), was attended by more than 50 scientists from the Nordic countries and elsewhere, amongst them

  5. Stochastic inequalities and applications to dynamics analysis of a novel SIVS epidemic model with jumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaona Leng

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper proposes a new nonlinear stochastic SIVS epidemic model with double epidemic hypothesis and Lévy jumps. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the threshold dynamics of the stochastic SIVS epidemic model. By using the technique of a series of stochastic inequalities, we obtain sufficient conditions for the persistence in mean and extinction of the stochastic system and the threshold which governs the extinction and the spread of the epidemic diseases. Finally, this paper describes the results of numerical simulations investigating the dynamical effects of stochastic disturbance. Our results significantly improve and generalize the corresponding results in recent literatures. The developed theoretical methods and stochastic inequalities technique can be used to investigate the high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic differential systems.

  6. Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

    This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

  7. Electricity consumption in Morocco: Stochastic Gompertz diffusion analysis with exogenous factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez, R.; Gutierrez-Sanchez, R.; Nafidi, A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a means of using stochastic diffusion processes to model the total consumption of electrical power (including distribution and transport losses) in Morocco, as recorded by the official data for total sales published by Office Nationale de l'Electricite (ONE), the Moroccan electricity authority. Two models of univariate stochastic diffusion were used: the time-homogeneous Gompertz Diffusion Process (HGDP) and the time-non-homogeneous Gompertz Diffusion Process (NHGDP). The methodology proposed is based on the analysis of the trend function; this requires the analyst to obtain fits and forecasts for the consumption of electrical power by means of the estimated trend function (conditioned and non-conditioned). This latter function is obtained from the mean value of the process and the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the parameters of the model. This estimation and the subsequent statistical inference are based on the discretised observation of the variable 'electricity consumption in Morocco', using annual data for the period 1980-2001. The fit and forecast are improved by using macroeconomic exogenous factors such as the gross domestic product per inhabitant (GDP/inhab), the final domestic consumption (FDC) and the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). The results obtained show that NHGDP (with the above three exogenous factors) provides an adequate fit and medium-term forecast of electricity consumption in Morocco

  8. Stochastic higher order finite element elasto-plastic analysis of the necking phenomenon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strąkowski Michał

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal goal of this work is to investigate an application of the stochastic perturbation technique of the 10th order in coupled thermo-elasto-plastic analysis of tension of the steel elastic bar exposed to fire with thermally dependent material characteristics. An ambient temperature, calculated from the fire curve after ISO 834-1, equivalent to the fire exposure of the steel structure is treated here as the input Gaussian random variable. It is uniquely defined by the constant mean value at outer surfaces of this element, where material parameters of the steel as Young modulus, yield strength, heat conductivity, capacity and thermal elongation are considered all as highly temperature-dependent. Computational implementation known as the Stochastic Finite Element Method is carried out with the use of the FEM system ABAQUS and computer algebra system MAPLE. It uses both polynomial and non-polynomial local response functions of stresses and displacements. The basic probabilistic characteristics of time-dependent structural response are determined (expectations, coefficients of variation, skewness and kurtosis and verified with classical Monte-Carlo simulation scheme and semi-analytical technique for input coefficient of variation not larger than 0.20. Finally, probabilistic convergence of all three methods versus increasing input uncertainty level is investigated.

  9. Stochastic Frontier Production Analysis of Tobacco Growers in District Mardan, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saddozai, K. N; Nasrullah, M.; Khan, N. P.

    2015-01-01

    The theme of this research was to analyze the stochastic frontier production of tobacco growers. This parametric approach was encompassed to investigate the technical efficiency of growers. The primary data was gleaned during 2014-15 from sampled population of three villages namely Takkar Kali, Garo Shah and Passand Kali of Takhtbhai Tehsil, Mardan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The multi-stage sampling technique was utilized to obtain the desired sample size of 120 tobacco growers. The major findings of stochastic production frontier analysis indicate that all variables were statistically significant and have portrayed positive contribution to tobacco production except fertilizer which was found significant but has revealed inverse relation with tobacco production. The mean technical efficiency was estimated at 0.85 depicting that tobacco growers can further amplify efficiency by 15% with given level of inputs. The inefficiency model estimates demonstrate that only experience of tobacco growers in study area was significantly decreasing the inefficiency of the growers. The study has concluded that tobacco growers are operating in the second stage of production; therefore, tobacco production can still be enhanced. It is recommended that season long trainings for tobacco growers may be undertaken by the concerned authorities to enhance the crop management skills for rational use of input. (author)

  10. Neutronics comparative analysis of plate-type research reactor using deterministic and stochastic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Shichang; Wang, Guanbo; Wu, Gaochen; Wang, Kan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • DRAGON and DONJON are applied and verified in calculations of research reactors. • Continuous-energy Monte Carlo calculations by RMC are chosen as the references. • “ECCO” option of DRAGON is suitable for the calculations of research reactors. • Manual modifications of cross-sections are not necessary with DRAGON and DONJON. • DRAGON and DONJON agree well with RMC if appropriate treatments are applied. - Abstract: Simulation of the behavior of the plate-type research reactors such as JRR-3M and CARR poses a challenge for traditional neutronics calculation tools and schemes for power reactors, due to the characteristics of complex geometry, highly heterogeneity and large leakage of the research reactors. Two different theoretical approaches, the deterministic and the stochastic methods, are used for the neutronics analysis of the JRR-3M plate-type research reactor in this paper. For the deterministic method the neutronics codes DRAGON and DONJON are used, while the continuous-energy Monte Carlo code RMC (Reactor Monte Carlo code) is employed for the stochastic approach. The goal of this research is to examine the capability of the deterministic code system DRAGON and DONJON to reliably simulate the research reactors. The results indicate that the DRAGON and DONJON code system agrees well with the continuous-energy Monte Carlo simulation on both k eff and flux distributions if the appropriate treatments (such as the ECCO option) are applied

  11. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Stochastic modeling of friction force and vibration analysis of a mechanical system using the model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Won Seok; Choi, Chan Kyu; Yoo, Hong Hee

    2015-01-01

    The squeal noise generated from a disk brake or chatter occurred in a machine tool primarily results from friction-induced vibration. Since friction-induced vibration is usually accompanied by abrasion and lifespan reduction of mechanical parts, it is necessary to develop a reliable analysis model by which friction-induced vibration phenomena can be accurately analyzed. The original Coulomb's friction model or the modified Coulomb friction model employed in most commercial programs employs deterministic friction coefficients. However, observing friction phenomena between two contact surfaces, one may observe that friction coefficients keep changing due to the unevenness of contact surface, temperature, lubrication and humidity. Therefore, in this study, friction coefficients are modeled as random parameters that keep changing during the motion of a mechanical system undergoing friction force. The integrity of the proposed stochastic friction model was validated by comparing the analysis results obtained by the proposed model with experimental results.

  13. Analysis for Ad Hoc Network Attack-Defense Based on Stochastic Game Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanjie LI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The attack actions analysis for Ad Hoc networks can provide a reference for the design security mechanisms. This paper presents an analysis method of security of Ad Hoc networks based on Stochastic Game Nets (SGN. This method can establish a SGN model of Ad Hoc networks and calculate to get the Nash equilibrium strategy. After transforming the SGN model into a continuous-time Markov Chain (CTMC, the security of Ad Hoc networks can be evaluated and analyzed quantitatively by calculating the stationary probability of CTMC. Finally, the Matlab simulation results show that the probability of successful attack is related to the attack intensity and expected payoffs, but not attack rate.

  14. Analysis of isothermal and cooling rate dependent immersion freezing by a unifying stochastic ice nucleation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, P. A.; Knopf, D. A.

    2015-05-01

    Immersion freezing is an important ice nucleation pathway involved in the formation of cirrus and mixed-phase clouds. Laboratory immersion freezing experiments are necessary to determine the range in temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) at which ice nucleation occurs and to quantify the associated nucleation kinetics. Typically, isothermal (applying a constant temperature) and cooling rate dependent immersion freezing experiments are conducted. In these experiments it is usually assumed that the droplets containing ice nuclei (IN) all have the same IN surface area (ISA), however the validity of this assumption or the impact it may have on analysis and interpretation of the experimental data is rarely questioned. A stochastic immersion freezing model based on first principles of statistics is presented, which accounts for variable ISA per droplet and uses physically observable parameters including the total number of droplets (Ntot) and the heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient, Jhet(T). This model is applied to address if (i) a time and ISA dependent stochastic immersion freezing process can explain laboratory immersion freezing data for different experimental methods and (ii) the assumption that all droplets contain identical ISA is a valid conjecture with subsequent consequences for analysis and interpretation of immersion freezing. The simple stochastic model can reproduce the observed time and surface area dependence in immersion freezing experiments for a variety of methods such as: droplets on a cold-stage exposed to air or surrounded by an oil matrix, wind and acoustically levitated droplets, droplets in a continuous flow diffusion chamber (CFDC), the Leipzig aerosol cloud interaction simulator (LACIS), and the aerosol interaction and dynamics in the atmosphere (AIDA) cloud chamber. Observed time dependent isothermal frozen fractions exhibiting non-exponential behavior with time can be readily explained by this model considering varying ISA. An

  15. Dike Strength Analysis on a Regional Scale Based On a Stochastic Subsoil Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelewijn, A. R.; Vastenburg, E. W.

    2013-12-01

    About two-third of the Netherlands is protected against flooding by dikes and levees. The subsoil can be characterized by fluvial and marine sediments. Maintaining the safety of these dikes and levees is of vital importance. Insufficient safety is not permissible, but excessive safety would imply a waste of money and other resources. Therefore safety assessments are carried out on a regular basis. Over the past decades, a practice has grown to calculate a limited number of cross-sections, roughly one every 500 to 1000 meters. For this purpose, a representative cross-section is selected as an estimate of the most vulnerable surface geometry and the subsoil conditions determined from boreholes and cone penetration tests, for which slope stability and piping analyses are carried out. This is a time-consuming procedure which is not only expensive, but also neglects geological knowledge. A method to incorporate geological knowledge of an area, including updating on the basis of additional investigations, has been described in Koelewijn et al. [2011]. In addition, various groups have worked to incorporate geotechnical stability models and detailed Lidar-measurements of the surface into a more efficient and rational calculation process [Knoeff et al. 2011, Lam et al. 2013, van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013]. Combining this experience with the 3D subsoil model opens possibilities for cost-effective additional soil investigations for those locations where ruling out unfavorable conditions really influences the decisions to be made regarding rejection and improvement, see the figure for examples of different subsoil profiles along a dike. The resulting system has been applied for semi-automated calculations of dikes in various parts of the Netherlands, totalling over 4000 km by now, and a part of the Mississippi levee system. [van den Ham & Mastbergen, 2013] G.A. van den Ham & D.R. Mastbergen, A semi-probabilistic assessment method for flow slides. AGU Fall meeting, 2013

  16. Stochastic analysis of uncertain thermal parameters for random thermal regime of frozen soil around a single freezing pipe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Zhou, Guoqing; Wang, Jianzhou; Zhou, Lei

    2018-03-01

    The artificial ground freezing method (AGF) is widely used in civil and mining engineering, and the thermal regime of frozen soil around the freezing pipe affects the safety of design and construction. The thermal parameters can be truly random due to heterogeneity of the soil properties, which lead to the randomness of thermal regime of frozen soil around the freezing pipe. The purpose of this paper is to study the one-dimensional (1D) random thermal regime problem on the basis of a stochastic analysis model and the Monte Carlo (MC) method. Considering the uncertain thermal parameters of frozen soil as random variables, stochastic processes and random fields, the corresponding stochastic thermal regime of frozen soil around a single freezing pipe are obtained and analyzed. Taking the variability of each stochastic parameter into account individually, the influences of each stochastic thermal parameter on stochastic thermal regime are investigated. The results show that the mean temperatures of frozen soil around the single freezing pipe with three analogy method are the same while the standard deviations are different. The distributions of standard deviation have a great difference at different radial coordinate location and the larger standard deviations are mainly at the phase change area. The computed data with random variable method and stochastic process method have a great difference from the measured data while the computed data with random field method well agree with the measured data. Each uncertain thermal parameter has a different effect on the standard deviation of frozen soil temperature around the single freezing pipe. These results can provide a theoretical basis for the design and construction of AGF.

  17. ANALYSIS AND OPTIMISATION OF DYNAMIC STABILITY OF MOBILE WORKING MACHINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter BIGOŠ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an investigation of the dynamic stability, which is specified for the mobile working machines. There are presented the basic theoretical principles of the stability theory together with an introduction of two illustrative examples of the dynamic stability analysis.

  18. Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

    2018-03-01

    Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

  19. A stochastic context free grammar based framework for analysis of protein sequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebel Jean-Christophe

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the last decade, there have been many applications of formal language theory in bioinformatics such as RNA structure prediction and detection of patterns in DNA. However, in the field of proteomics, the size of the protein alphabet and the complexity of relationship between amino acids have mainly limited the application of formal language theory to the production of grammars whose expressive power is not higher than stochastic regular grammars. However, these grammars, like other state of the art methods, cannot cover any higher-order dependencies such as nested and crossing relationships that are common in proteins. In order to overcome some of these limitations, we propose a Stochastic Context Free Grammar based framework for the analysis of protein sequences where grammars are induced using a genetic algorithm. Results This framework was implemented in a system aiming at the production of binding site descriptors. These descriptors not only allow detection of protein regions that are involved in these sites, but also provide insight in their structure. Grammars were induced using quantitative properties of amino acids to deal with the size of the protein alphabet. Moreover, we imposed some structural constraints on grammars to reduce the extent of the rule search space. Finally, grammars based on different properties were combined to convey as much information as possible. Evaluation was performed on sites of various sizes and complexity described either by PROSITE patterns, domain profiles or a set of patterns. Results show the produced binding site descriptors are human-readable and, hence, highlight biologically meaningful features. Moreover, they achieve good accuracy in both annotation and detection. In addition, findings suggest that, unlike current state-of-the-art methods, our system may be particularly suited to deal with patterns shared by non-homologous proteins. Conclusion A new Stochastic Context Free

  20. Stochastic kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombino, A.; Mosiello, R.; Norelli, F.; Jorio, V.M.; Pacilio, N.

    1975-01-01

    A nuclear system kinetics is formulated according to a stochastic approach. The detailed probability balance equations are written for the probability of finding the mixed population of neutrons and detected neutrons, i.e. detectrons, at a given level for a given instant of time. Equations are integrated in search of a probability profile: a series of cases is analyzed through a progressive criterium. It tends to take into account an increasing number of physical processes within the chosen model. The most important contribution is that solutions interpret analytically experimental conditions of equilibrium (moise analysis) and non equilibrium (pulsed neutron measurements, source drop technique, start up procedures)

  1. The solution of the neutron point kinetics equation with stochastic extension: an analysis of two moments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Milena Wollmann da; Vilhena, Marco Tullio M.B.; Bodmann, Bardo Ernst J.; Vasques, Richard, E-mail: milena.wollmann@ufrgs.br, E-mail: vilhena@mat.ufrgs.br, E-mail: bardobodmann@ufrgs.br, E-mail: richard.vasques@fulbrightmail.org [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica

    2015-07-01

    The neutron point kinetics equation, which models the time-dependent behavior of nuclear reactors, is often used to understand the dynamics of nuclear reactor operations. It consists of a system of coupled differential equations that models the interaction between (i) the neutron population; and (II) the concentration of the delayed neutron precursors, which are radioactive isotopes formed in the fission process that decay through neutron emission. These equations are deterministic in nature, and therefore can provide only average values of the modeled populations. However, the actual dynamical process is stochastic: the neutron density and the delayed neutron precursor concentrations vary randomly with time. To address this stochastic behavior, Hayes and Allen have generalized the standard deterministic point kinetics equation. They derived a system of stochastic differential equations that can accurately model the random behavior of the neutron density and the precursor concentrations in a point reactor. Due to the stiffness of these equations, this system was numerically implemented using a stochastic piecewise constant approximation method (Stochastic PCA). Here, we present a study of the influence of stochastic fluctuations on the results of the neutron point kinetics equation. We reproduce the stochastic formulation introduced by Hayes and Allen and compute Monte Carlo numerical results for examples with constant and time-dependent reactivity, comparing these results with stochastic and deterministic methods found in the literature. Moreover, we introduce a modified version of the stochastic method to obtain a non-stiff solution, analogue to a previously derived deterministic approach. (author)

  2. The solution of the neutron point kinetics equation with stochastic extension: an analysis of two moments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Milena Wollmann da; Vilhena, Marco Tullio M.B.; Bodmann, Bardo Ernst J.; Vasques, Richard

    2015-01-01

    The neutron point kinetics equation, which models the time-dependent behavior of nuclear reactors, is often used to understand the dynamics of nuclear reactor operations. It consists of a system of coupled differential equations that models the interaction between (i) the neutron population; and (II) the concentration of the delayed neutron precursors, which are radioactive isotopes formed in the fission process that decay through neutron emission. These equations are deterministic in nature, and therefore can provide only average values of the modeled populations. However, the actual dynamical process is stochastic: the neutron density and the delayed neutron precursor concentrations vary randomly with time. To address this stochastic behavior, Hayes and Allen have generalized the standard deterministic point kinetics equation. They derived a system of stochastic differential equations that can accurately model the random behavior of the neutron density and the precursor concentrations in a point reactor. Due to the stiffness of these equations, this system was numerically implemented using a stochastic piecewise constant approximation method (Stochastic PCA). Here, we present a study of the influence of stochastic fluctuations on the results of the neutron point kinetics equation. We reproduce the stochastic formulation introduced by Hayes and Allen and compute Monte Carlo numerical results for examples with constant and time-dependent reactivity, comparing these results with stochastic and deterministic methods found in the literature. Moreover, we introduce a modified version of the stochastic method to obtain a non-stiff solution, analogue to a previously derived deterministic approach. (author)

  3. PV Hosting Capacity Analysis and Enhancement Using High Resolution Stochastic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilio J. Palacios-Garcia

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reduction of CO2 emissions is a main target in the future smart grid. This goal is boosting the installation of renewable energy resources (RES, as well as a major consumer engagement that seeks for a more efficient utilization of these resources toward the figure of ‘prosumers’. Nevertheless, these resources present an intermittent nature, which requires the presence of an energy storage system and an energy management system (EMS to ensure an uninterrupted power supply. Moreover, network-related issues might arise due to the increasing power of renewable resources installed in the grid, the storage systems also being capable of contributing to the network stability. However, to assess these future scenarios and test the control strategies, a simulation system is needed. The aim of this paper is to analyze the interaction between residential consumers with high penetration of PV generation and distributed storage and the grid by means of a high temporal resolution simulation scenario based on a stochastic residential load model and PV production records. Results of the model are presented for different PV power rates and storage capacities, as well as a two-level charging strategy as a mechanism for increasing the hosting capacity (HC of the network.

  4. Homotopy Analysis Method for Boundary-Value Problem of Turbo Warrant Pricing under Stochastic Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoi Ying Wong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Turbo warrants are liquidly traded financial derivative securities in over-the-counter and exchange markets in Asia and Europe. The structure of turbo warrants is similar to barrier options, but a lookback rebate will be paid if the barrier is crossed by the underlying asset price. Therefore, the turbo warrant price satisfies a partial differential equation (PDE with a boundary condition that depends on another boundary-value problem (BVP of PDE. Due to the highly complicated structure of turbo warrants, their valuation presents a challenging problem in the field of financial mathematics. This paper applies the homotopy analysis method to construct an analytic pricing formula for turbo warrants under stochastic volatility in a PDE framework.

  5. Production and efficiency of large wildland fire suppression effort: A stochastic frontier analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E; Hand, Michael S

    2016-01-15

    This study examines the production and efficiency of wildland fire suppression effort. We estimate the effectiveness of suppression resource inputs to produce controlled fire lines that contain large wildland fires using stochastic frontier analysis. Determinants of inefficiency are identified and the effects of these determinants on the daily production of controlled fire line are examined. Results indicate that the use of bulldozers and fire engines increase the production of controlled fire line, while firefighter crews do not tend to contribute to controlled fire line production. Production of controlled fire line is more efficient if it occurs along natural or built breaks, such as rivers and roads, and within areas previously burned by wildfires. However, results also indicate that productivity and efficiency of the controlled fire line are sensitive to weather, landscape and fire characteristics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Bridges for Pedestrians with Random Parameters using the Stochastic Finite Elements Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafran, J.; Kamiński, M.

    2017-02-01

    The main aim of this paper is to present a Stochastic Finite Element Method analysis with reference to principal design parameters of bridges for pedestrians: eigenfrequency and deflection of bridge span. They are considered with respect to random thickness of plates in boxed-section bridge platform, Young modulus of structural steel and static load resulting from crowd of pedestrians. The influence of the quality of the numerical model in the context of traditional FEM is shown also on the example of a simple steel shield. Steel structures with random parameters are discretized in exactly the same way as for the needs of traditional Finite Element Method. Its probabilistic version is provided thanks to the Response Function Method, where several numerical tests with random parameter values varying around its mean value enable the determination of the structural response and, thanks to the Least Squares Method, its final probabilistic moments.

  7. Bridges for Pedestrians with Random Parameters using the Stochastic Finite Elements Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szafran J.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this paper is to present a Stochastic Finite Element Method analysis with reference to principal design parameters of bridges for pedestrians: eigenfrequency and deflection of bridge span. They are considered with respect to random thickness of plates in boxed-section bridge platform, Young modulus of structural steel and static load resulting from crowd of pedestrians. The influence of the quality of the numerical model in the context of traditional FEM is shown also on the example of a simple steel shield. Steel structures with random parameters are discretized in exactly the same way as for the needs of traditional Finite Element Method. Its probabilistic version is provided thanks to the Response Function Method, where several numerical tests with random parameter values varying around its mean value enable the determination of the structural response and, thanks to the Least Squares Method, its final probabilistic moments.

  8. Stochastic lumping analysis for linear kinetics and its application to the fluctuation relations between hierarchical kinetic networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, De-Ming; Chang, Cheng-Hung [Institute of Physics, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan (China)

    2015-05-14

    Conventional studies of biomolecular behaviors rely largely on the construction of kinetic schemes. Since the selection of these networks is not unique, a concern is raised whether and under which conditions hierarchical schemes can reveal the same experimentally measured fluctuating behaviors and unique fluctuation related physical properties. To clarify these questions, we introduce stochasticity into the traditional lumping analysis, generalize it from rate equations to chemical master equations and stochastic differential equations, and extract the fluctuation relations between kinetically and thermodynamically equivalent networks under intrinsic and extrinsic noises. The results provide a theoretical basis for the legitimate use of low-dimensional models in the studies of macromolecular fluctuations and, more generally, for exploring stochastic features in different levels of contracted networks in chemical and biological kinetic systems.

  9. Stochastic lumping analysis for linear kinetics and its application to the fluctuation relations between hierarchical kinetic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, De-Ming; Chang, Cheng-Hung

    2015-05-14

    Conventional studies of biomolecular behaviors rely largely on the construction of kinetic schemes. Since the selection of these networks is not unique, a concern is raised whether and under which conditions hierarchical schemes can reveal the same experimentally measured fluctuating behaviors and unique fluctuation related physical properties. To clarify these questions, we introduce stochasticity into the traditional lumping analysis, generalize it from rate equations to chemical master equations and stochastic differential equations, and extract the fluctuation relations between kinetically and thermodynamically equivalent networks under intrinsic and extrinsic noises. The results provide a theoretical basis for the legitimate use of low-dimensional models in the studies of macromolecular fluctuations and, more generally, for exploring stochastic features in different levels of contracted networks in chemical and biological kinetic systems.

  10. Reliability Analysis of Dynamic Stability in Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Anders Veldt

    2004-01-01

    exhibit sufficient characteristics with respect to slope at zero heel (GM value), maximum leverarm, positive range of stability and area below the leverarm curve. The rule-based requirements to calm water leverarm curves are entirely based on experience obtained from vessels in operation and recorded......The assessment of a ship's intact stability is traditionally based on a semi-empirical deterministic concept that evaluates the characteristics of ship's calm water restoring leverarm curves. Today the ship is considered safe with respect to dynamic stability if its calm water leverarm curves...... accidents in the past. The rules therefore only leaves little room for evaluation and improvement of safety of a ship's dynamic stability. A few studies have evaluated the probability of ship stability loss in waves using Monte Carlo simulations. However, since this probability may be in the order of 10...

  11. Stability of fundamental couplings: A global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, C. J. A. P.; Pinho, A. M. M.

    2017-01-01

    Astrophysical tests of the stability of fundamental couplings are becoming an increasingly important probe of new physics. Motivated by the recent availability of new and stronger constraints we update previous works testing the consistency of measurements of the fine-structure constant α and the proton-to-electron mass ratio μ =mp/me (mostly obtained in the optical/ultraviolet) with combined measurements of α , μ and the proton gyromagnetic ratio gp (mostly in the radio band). We carry out a global analysis of all available data, including the 293 archival measurements of Webb et al. and 66 more recent dedicated measurements, and constraining both time and spatial variations. While nominally the full data sets show a slight statistical preference for variations of α and μ (at up to two standard deviations), we also find several inconsistencies between different subsets, likely due to hidden systematics and implying that these statistical preferences need to be taken with caution. The statistical evidence for a spatial dipole in the values of α is found at the 2.3 sigma level. Forthcoming studies with facilities such as ALMA and ESPRESSO should clarify these issues.

  12. Remarks on boiling water reactor stability analysis. Pt. 2. Stability monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lange, Carsten; Hennig, Dieter; Hurtado, Antonio [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Chair of Hydrogen and Nuclear Energy; Schuster, Roland [Kernkraftwerk Brunsbuettel GmbH und Co. oHG, Brunsbuettel (Germany); Lukas, Bernard [EnBW Kernkraft GmbH, Philippsburg (Germany). Kernkraftwerk Philippsburg; Aguirre, Carlos [Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt AG, Aargau (Switzerland)

    2012-12-15

    In part 1 of this article we explained the partly relative complex solution manifold of the differential equations describing the stability behaviour of a BWR, in particular the coexistence of different types of solutions, such as the coexistence of unstable limit cycles and stable fixed points are of interest from the operational safety point of view. The part 2 is devoted to the surveillance of the stability behaviour. We summarize some stability monitoring methods and suggest to support stability tests by RAM-ROM analyses in order to reveal in advance the stability 'landscape' of the BWR in a parameter region high sensitive for appearing of linear unstable states. The analysis of an especial stability test, performed at NPP Leibstadt (KKL), makes it clear that the measurement results can only be interpreted by application of bifurcation analysis. (orig.)

  13. BWR stability analysis: methodology of the stability analysis and results of PSI for the NEA/NCR benchmark task

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennig, D.; Nechvatal, L.

    1996-09-01

    The report describes the PSI stability analysis methodology and the validation of this methodology based on the international OECD/NEA BWR stability benchmark task. In the frame of this work, the stability properties of some operation points of the NPP Ringhals 1 have been analysed and compared with the experimental results. (author) figs., tabs., 45 refs

  14. Stochastic processes analysis in nuclear reactor using ARMA models; Analiza stohastichkih procesa u nuklearnom reaktoru korishcjenjem ARMA modela

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zavaljevski, N [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Boris Kidric VINCA, Belgrade (Yugoslavia)

    1990-07-01

    The analysis of ARMA model derived from general stochastic state equations of nuclear reactor is given. The dependence of ARMA model parameters on the main physical characteristics of RB nuclear reactor in Vinca is presented. Preliminary identification results are presented, observed discrepancies between theory and experiment are explained and the possibilities of identification improvement are anticipated. (author)

  15. Stability Analysis and Application for Delayed Neural Networks Driven by Fractional Brownian Noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wuneng; Zhou, Xianghui; Yang, Jun; Zhou, Jun; Tong, Dongbing

    2018-05-01

    This paper deals with two types of the stability problem for the delayed neural networks driven by fractional Brownian noise (FBN). The existence and the uniqueness of the solution to the main system with respect to FBN are proved via fixed point theory. Based on Hilbert-Schmidt operator theory and analytic semigroup principle, the mild solution of the stochastic neural networks is obtained. By applying the stochastic analytic technique and some well-known inequalities, the asymptotic stability criteria and the exponential stability condition are established. Both numerical example and practical application for synchronization control of multiagent system are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and potential of the proposed techniques.

  16. CAREM-25 Steam Generator Stability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabiti, A.; Delmastro, D.

    2003-01-01

    In this work the stability of a once-through CAREM-25 steam generator is analyzed.A fix nodes numerical model, that allows the modelling of the liquid, two-phase and superheated steam zones, is implemented.This model was checked against a mobile finite elements model under saturated steam conditions at the channel exit and a good agreement was obtained.Finally the stability of a CAREM steam generator is studied and the range of in let restrictions that a assure the system stability is analyzed

  17. Angle Stability Analysis for Voltage-Controlled Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Hengwei; Jia, Chenxi; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    a criterion to analyze the quasi-steady angle stability and the direct current (DC) side stability for VSCs. The operating limit and the angle instability mechanism are revealed, which is generally applicable to the voltage-controlled converters. During the analysis, the influence of the parameters on angle...... stability is studied. Further, the difference on instability mechanism between power electronic converters and synchronous generators are explained in detail. Finally, experiment results with corrective actions verify the analysis....

  18. Functional Abstraction of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bujorianu, L.M.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Hermanns, H.

    2006-01-01

    The verification problem for stochastic hybrid systems is quite difficult. One method to verify these systems is stochastic reachability analysis. Concepts of abstractions for stochastic hybrid systems are needed to ease the stochastic reachability analysis. In this paper, we set up different ways

  19. Stochastic analysis of contaminant transport in porous media: analysis of a two-member radionuclide chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonano, E.J.; Shipers, L.R.

    1987-01-01

    In this study the authors extend previous stochastic analyses of contaminant transport in geologic media for a single species to a chain of two species. The authors particular application is the quantification of uncertainties due to lack of characterization of the spatial variability of hydrologic parameters on transport of radionuclides from a high-level waste repository to the biosphere. Radionuclide chains can have a significant impact on demonstrating compliance (or violation) of standards regulating the release to the environment accessible to humans. Two approaches for determining the cross-covariance terms in the mean concentration equations are presented. One uses a Taylor expansion to obtain the cross-covariance between the velocity and concentration fluctuations, while the other is based on a Fourier-Laplace double transform method. For the conditions of interest here, the difference between these two approaches are expected to be small. In addition, the variances are calculated in a unique way by solving another associated partial differential equation. A parametric study is carried out to examine the sensitivity of the mean concentration of the two species and their corresponding variances and cross-covariance on the parameters associated with the structure of the stochastic velocity field. It is found that the dependent variables are most sensitive to the intensity and correlation length of the velocity fluctuations. The magnitude of the variances and cross-covariance of the concentrations are proportional to the magnitude of the mean concentrations which depend on inlet concentration boundary conditions

  20. A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Output Level and Growth in Poland and Western Economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osiewalski, J.; Koop, G.; Steel, M.F.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier methods to measure the productivity gap between Poland and Western countries that existed before the beginning of the main Polish economic reform. Using data for 20 Western economies, Poland and Yugoslavia (1980-1990) we estimate a translog stochastic

  1. Stochastic Unit Commitment via Progressive Hedging - Extensive Analysis of Solution Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ordoudis, Christos; Pinson, Pierre; Zugno, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Owing to the massive deployment of renewable power production units over the last couple of decades, the use of stochastic optimization methods to solve the unit commitment problem has gained increasing attention. Solving stochastic unit commitment problems in large-scale power systems requires h...

  2. Modeling stochasticity in biochemical reaction networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantino, P H; Vlysidis, M; Smadbeck, P; Kaznessis, Y N

    2016-01-01

    Small biomolecular systems are inherently stochastic. Indeed, fluctuations of molecular species are substantial in living organisms and may result in significant variation in cellular phenotypes. The chemical master equation (CME) is the most detailed mathematical model that can describe stochastic behaviors. However, because of its complexity the CME has been solved for only few, very small reaction networks. As a result, the contribution of CME-based approaches to biology has been very limited. In this review we discuss the approach of solving CME by a set of differential equations of probability moments, called moment equations. We present different approaches to produce and to solve these equations, emphasizing the use of factorial moments and the zero information entropy closure scheme. We also provide information on the stability analysis of stochastic systems. Finally, we speculate on the utility of CME-based modeling formalisms, especially in the context of synthetic biology efforts. (topical review)

  3. Stochastic index model for intermittent regimes: from preliminary analysis to regionalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rianna

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In small and medium-sized basins or in rivers characterized by intermittent discharges, with low or negligible/null observed values for long periods of the year, the correct representation of the discharge regime is important for issues related to water management and to define the amount and quality of water available for irrigation, domestic and recreational uses. In these cases, only one index as a statistical metric is often not enough; it is thus necessary to introduce Flow Duration Curves (FDC.

    The aim of this study is therefore to combine a stochastic index flow model capable of reproducing the FDC record period of a river, regardless of the persistence and seasonality of the series, with the theory of total probability in order to calculate how often a river is dry.

    The paper draws from preliminary analyses, including a study to estimate the correlation between discharge indicators Q95, Q50 and Q1 (discharges exceeding 95%, 50% or 1% of the time, respectively and some fundamental characteristics of the basin, as well as to identify homogeneous regions in the target area through the study of several geo-morphological features and climatic conditions. The stochastic model was then applied in one of the homogeneous regions that includes intermittent rivers.

    Finally, the model was regionalized by means of regression analysis in order to calculate the FDC for ungauged basins; the reliability of this method was tested using jack-knife validation.

  4. Modelling and performance analysis of clinical pathways using the stochastic process algebra PEPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xian; Han, Rui; Guo, Yike; Bradley, Jeremy; Cox, Benita; Dickinson, Robert; Kitney, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Hospitals nowadays have to serve numerous patients with limited medical staff and equipment while maintaining healthcare quality. Clinical pathway informatics is regarded as an efficient way to solve a series of hospital challenges. To date, conventional research lacks a mathematical model to describe clinical pathways. Existing vague descriptions cannot fully capture the complexities accurately in clinical pathways and hinders the effective management and further optimization of clinical pathways. Given this motivation, this paper presents a clinical pathway management platform, the Imperial Clinical Pathway Analyzer (ICPA). By extending the stochastic model performance evaluation process algebra (PEPA), ICPA introduces a clinical-pathway-specific model: clinical pathway PEPA (CPP). ICPA can simulate stochastic behaviours of a clinical pathway by extracting information from public clinical databases and other related documents using CPP. Thus, the performance of this clinical pathway, including its throughput, resource utilisation and passage time can be quantitatively analysed. A typical clinical pathway on stroke extracted from a UK hospital is used to illustrate the effectiveness of ICPA. Three application scenarios are tested using ICPA: 1) redundant resources are identified and removed, thus the number of patients being served is maintained with less cost; 2) the patient passage time is estimated, providing the likelihood that patients can leave hospital within a specific period; 3) the maximum number of input patients are found, helping hospitals to decide whether they can serve more patients with the existing resource allocation. ICPA is an effective platform for clinical pathway management: 1) ICPA can describe a variety of components (state, activity, resource and constraints) in a clinical pathway, thus facilitating the proper understanding of complexities involved in it; 2) ICPA supports the performance analysis of clinical pathway, thereby assisting

  5. The FAST-DATA System: Fully Automatic Stochastic Technology for Data Acquisition, Transmission, and Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, R.W.; Crowe, R.D.; McGuire, J.J.

    1978-01-01

    The potential to automatically collect, classify, and report on stochastic data (signals with random, time-varying components) from power plants has long been discussed by utilities, government, industries, national laboratories and universities. It has become clear to all concerned that such signals often contain information about plant conditions which may provide the basis for increased plant availability through early detection and warning of developing malfunctions. Maintenance can then be scheduled at opportune times. Inopportune failures of major and minor power plant components are a major cause of down-time and detracts significantly from availability of the plant. A complete system to realize automatic stochastic data processing has been conceptually designed. Development of the FAST-DATA system has been initiated through a program of periodic measurements performed on the vibration and loose parts monitoring system of the Trojan reactor (1130-MW(e)PWR) operated by Portland General Electric Company. The development plan for the system consists of a six-step procedure. The initial steps depend on a significant level of human involvement. In the course of development of the system, the routine duties of operators and analysts are gradually replaced by computerized automatic data handling procedures. In the final configuration, the operator and analysts are completely freed of routine chores by logical machinery. The results achieved to date from actual application of the proof-of-principle system are discussed. The early developmental phases have concentrated on system organization and examination of a representative data base. Preliminary results from the signature analysis program using Trojan data indicate that the performance specifications predicted for the FAST-DATA system are achievable in practice. (author)

  6. Stability analysis of impulsive parabolic complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jinliang, E-mail: wangjinliang1984@yahoo.com.cn [Science and Technology on Aircraft Control Laboratory, School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, XueYuan Road, No. 37, HaiDian District, Beijing 100191 (China); Wu Huaining [Science and Technology on Aircraft Control Laboratory, School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, XueYuan Road, No. 37, HaiDian District, Beijing 100191 (China)

    2011-11-15

    Highlights: > Two impulsive parabolic complex network models are proposed. > The global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. > The robust global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. - Abstract: In the present paper, two kinds of impulsive parabolic complex networks (IPCNs) are considered. In the first one, all nodes have the same time-varying delay. In the second one, different nodes have different time-varying delays. Using the Lyapunov functional method combined with the inequality techniques, some global exponential stability criteria are derived for the IPCNs. Furthermore, several robust global exponential stability conditions are proposed to take uncertainties in the parameters of the IPCNs into account. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here.

  7. Stability analysis of impulsive parabolic complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jinliang; Wu Huaining

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Two impulsive parabolic complex network models are proposed. → The global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. → The robust global exponential stability of impulsive parabolic complex networks are considered. - Abstract: In the present paper, two kinds of impulsive parabolic complex networks (IPCNs) are considered. In the first one, all nodes have the same time-varying delay. In the second one, different nodes have different time-varying delays. Using the Lyapunov functional method combined with the inequality techniques, some global exponential stability criteria are derived for the IPCNs. Furthermore, several robust global exponential stability conditions are proposed to take uncertainties in the parameters of the IPCNs into account. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here.

  8. Using Spline Regression in Semi-Parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis: An Application to Polish Dairy Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    of specifying an unsuitable functional form and thus, model misspecification and biased parameter estimates. Given these problems of the DEA and the SFA, Fan, Li and Weersink (1996) proposed a semi-parametric stochastic frontier model that estimates the production function (frontier) by non......), Kumbhakar et al. (2007), and Henningsen and Kumbhakar (2009). The aim of this paper and its main contribution to the existing literature is the estimation semi-parametric stochastic frontier models using a different non-parametric estimation technique: spline regression (Ma et al. 2011). We apply...... efficiency of Polish dairy farms contributes to the insight into this dynamic process. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate the results of this spline-based semi-parametric stochastic frontier model with results of other semi-parametric stochastic frontier models and of traditional parametric stochastic...

  9. Unified Tractable Model for Large-Scale Networks Using Stochastic Geometry: Analysis and Design

    KAUST Repository

    Afify, Laila H.

    2016-12-01

    The ever-growing demands for wireless technologies necessitate the evolution of next generation wireless networks that fulfill the diverse wireless users requirements. However, upscaling existing wireless networks implies upscaling an intrinsic component in the wireless domain; the aggregate network interference. Being the main performance limiting factor, it becomes crucial to develop a rigorous analytical framework to accurately characterize the out-of-cell interference, to reap the benefits of emerging networks. Due to the different network setups and key performance indicators, it is essential to conduct a comprehensive study that unifies the various network configurations together with the different tangible performance metrics. In that regard, the focus of this thesis is to present a unified mathematical paradigm, based on Stochastic Geometry, for large-scale networks with different antenna/network configurations. By exploiting such a unified study, we propose an efficient automated network design strategy to satisfy the desired network objectives. First, this thesis studies the exact aggregate network interference characterization, by accounting for each of the interferers signals in the large-scale network. Second, we show that the information about the interferers symbols can be approximated via the Gaussian signaling approach. The developed mathematical model presents twofold analysis unification for uplink and downlink cellular networks literature. It aligns the tangible decoding error probability analysis with the abstract outage probability and ergodic rate analysis. Furthermore, it unifies the analysis for different antenna configurations, i.e., various multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems. Accordingly, we propose a novel reliable network design strategy that is capable of appropriately adjusting the network parameters to meet desired design criteria. In addition, we discuss the diversity-multiplexing tradeoffs imposed by differently favored

  10. Stability Analysis for HIFiRE Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fei; Choudhari, Meelan M.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; White, Jeffery A.; Kimmel, Roger; Adamczak, David; Borg, Matthew; Stanfield, Scott; Smith, Mark S.

    2012-01-01

    The HIFiRE-1 flight experiment provided a valuable database pertaining to boundary layer transition over a 7-degree half-angle, circular cone model from supersonic to hypersonic Mach numbers, and a range of Reynolds numbers and angles of attack. This paper reports selected findings from the ongoing computational analysis of the measured in-flight transition behavior. Transition during the ascent phase at nearly zero degree angle of attack is dominated by second mode instabilities except in the vicinity of the cone meridian where a roughness element was placed midway along the length of the cone. The growth of first mode instabilities is found to be weak at all trajectory points analyzed from the ascent phase. For times less than approximately 18.5 seconds into the flight, the peak amplification ratio for second mode disturbances is sufficiently small because of the lower Mach numbers at earlier times, so that the transition behavior inferred from the measurements is attributed to an unknown physical mechanism, potentially related to step discontinuities in surface height near the locations of a change in the surface material. Based on the time histories of temperature and/or heat flux at transducer locations within the aft portion of the cone, the onset of transition correlated with a linear N-factor, based on parabolized stability equations, of approximately 13.5. Due to the large angles of attack during the re-entry phase, crossflow instability may play a significant role in transition. Computations also indicate the presence of pronounced crossflow separation over a significant portion of the trajectory segment that is relevant to transition analysis. The transition behavior during this re-entry segment of HIFiRE-1 flight shares some common features with the predicted transition front along the elliptic cone shaped HIFiRE-5 flight article, which was designed to provide hypersonic transition data for a fully 3D geometric configuration. To compare and contrast the

  11. Analysis of natural circulation BWR dynamics with stochastic and deterministic methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    VanderHagen, T.H.; Van Dam, H.; Hoogenboom, J.E.; Kleiss, E.B.J.; Nissen, W.H.M.; Oosterkamp, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    Reactor kinetic, thermal hydraulic and total plant stability of a natural convection cooled BWR was studied using noise analysis and by evaluation of process responses to control rod steps and to steamflow control valve steps. An estimate of the fuel thermal time constant and an impression of the recirculation flow response to power variations was obtained. A sophisticated noise analysis method resulted in more insight into the fluctuations of the coolant velocity

  12. Analysis of degree of nonlinearity and stochastic nature of HRV signal during meditation using delay vector variance method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, L Ram Gopal; Kuntamalla, Srinivas

    2011-01-01

    Heart rate variability analysis is fast gaining acceptance as a potential non-invasive means of autonomic nervous system assessment in research as well as clinical domains. In this study, a new nonlinear analysis method is used to detect the degree of nonlinearity and stochastic nature of heart rate variability signals during two forms of meditation (Chi and Kundalini). The data obtained from an online and widely used public database (i.e., MIT/BIH physionet database), is used in this study. The method used is the delay vector variance (DVV) method, which is a unified method for detecting the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series and is based upon the examination of local predictability of a signal. From the results it is clear that there is a significant change in the nonlinearity and stochastic nature of the signal before and during the meditation (p value > 0.01). During Chi meditation there is a increase in stochastic nature and decrease in nonlinear nature of the signal. There is a significant decrease in the degree of nonlinearity and stochastic nature during Kundalini meditation.

  13. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  14. Stochastic neuron models

    CERN Document Server

    Greenwood, Priscilla E

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a large number of open problems in the theory of stochastic neural systems, with the aim of enticing probabilists to work on them. This includes problems arising from stochastic models of individual neurons as well as those arising from stochastic models of the activities of small and large networks of interconnected neurons. The necessary neuroscience background to these problems is outlined within the text, so readers can grasp the context in which they arise. This book will be useful for graduate students and instructors providing material and references for applying probability to stochastic neuron modeling. Methods and results are presented, but the emphasis is on questions where additional stochastic analysis may contribute neuroscience insight. An extensive bibliography is included. Dr. Priscilla E. Greenwood is a Professor Emerita in the Department of Mathematics at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Lawrence M. Ward is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Brain...

  15. Linear stability analysis of supersonic axisymmetric jets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Wan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stabilities of supersonic jets are examined with different velocities, momentum thicknesses, and core temperatures. Amplification rates of instability waves at inlet are evaluated by linear stability theory (LST. It is found that increased velocity and core temperature would increase amplification rates substantially and such influence varies for different azimuthal wavenumbers. The most unstable modes in thin momentum thickness cases usually have higher frequencies and azimuthal wavenumbers. Mode switching is observed for low azimuthal wavenumbers, but it appears merely in high velocity cases. In addition, the results provided by linear parabolized stability equations show that the mean-flow divergence affects the spatial evolution of instability waves greatly. The most amplified instability waves globally are sometimes found to be different from that given by LST.

  16. Stability analysis of artificial synthetic overweight elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Jian

    1990-01-01

    Stability of artificial synthetic overweight elements has been analysed theoretically using a diagram of nuclear stability. It is indicated that overweight nucleus can be synthesized only when a certain amount of neutrons participate simultaneously in the synthesis. The maximum number of protons in overweight elements is 1002. The proton number of 'extreme overweight' elements of which the neutron star is possibly composed is in the range from 326 to 1002. It is expected that the mass number of the stable overweight elements with proton number 114 is in the range from 299 to 315

  17. An analysis for crack layer stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehanobish, K.; Botsis, J.; Moet, A.; Chudnovsky, A.

    1986-01-01

    The problem of uncontrolled crack propagation and crack arrest is considered with respect to crack layer (CL) translational stability. CL propagation is determined by the difference between the energy release rate and the amount of energy required for material transformation, and necessary and sufficient conditions for CL instability are derived. CL propagation in polystyrene is studied for two cases. For the case of remotely applied fixed load fatigue, the sufficient condition of instability is shown to be met before the necessary condition, and the necessary condition controls the stability. For the fixed displacement case, neither of the instability conditions are met, and CL propagation remains stable, resulting in crack arrest.

  18. Stochastic model simulation using Kronecker product analysis and Zassenhaus formula approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caglar, Mehmet Umut; Pal, Ranadip

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Models are regularly applied in Genetic Regulatory Network modeling to capture the stochastic behavior observed in the generation of biological entities such as mRNA or proteins. Several approaches including Stochastic Master Equations and Probabilistic Boolean Networks have been proposed to model the stochastic behavior in genetic regulatory networks. It is generally accepted that Stochastic Master Equation is a fundamental model that can describe the system being investigated in fine detail, but the application of this model is computationally enormously expensive. On the other hand, Probabilistic Boolean Network captures only the coarse-scale stochastic properties of the system without modeling the detailed interactions. We propose a new approximation of the stochastic master equation model that is able to capture the finer details of the modeled system including bistabilities and oscillatory behavior, and yet has a significantly lower computational complexity. In this new method, we represent the system using tensors and derive an identity to exploit the sparse connectivity of regulatory targets for complexity reduction. The algorithm involves an approximation based on Zassenhaus formula to represent the exponential of a sum of matrices as product of matrices. We derive upper bounds on the expected error of the proposed model distribution as compared to the stochastic master equation model distribution. Simulation results of the application of the model to four different biological benchmark systems illustrate performance comparable to detailed stochastic master equation models but with considerably lower computational complexity. The results also demonstrate the reduced complexity of the new approach as compared to commonly used Stochastic Simulation Algorithm for equivalent accuracy.

  19. A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J.S. Allen

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential equations. Some well-known examples are used for illustration such as an SIR epidemic model and a host-vector malaria model. Analytical methods for approximating the probability of a disease outbreak are also discussed. Keywords: Branching process, Continuous-time Markov chain, Minor outbreak, Stochastic differential equation, 2000 MSC: 60H10, 60J28, 92D30

  20. Methods of stability analysis in nonlinear mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warnock, R.L.; Ruth, R.D.; Gabella, W.; Ecklund, K.

    1989-01-01

    We review our recent work on methods to study stability in nonlinear mechanics, especially for the problems of particle accelerators, and compare our ideals to those of other authors. We emphasize methods that (1) show promise as practical design tools, (2) are effective when the nonlinearity is large, and (3) have a strong theoretical basis. 24 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Stochastic nonlinear beam equations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brzezniak, Z.; Maslowski, Bohdan; Seidler, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 132, č. 1 (2005), s. 119-149 ISSN 0178-8051 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/01/1197 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : stochastic beam equation * stability Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.896, year: 2005

  2. A patchwork approach to stochastic simulation: A route towards the analysis of morphology in multiphase systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El Ouassini, Ayoub [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: ayoub.el-ouassini@polymtl.ca; Saucier, Antoine [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, departement de mathematiques et de genie industriel, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: antoine.saucier@polymtl.ca; Marcotte, Denis [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, departement de genie civil, geologique et minier, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: denis.marcotte@polymtl.ca; Favis, Basil D. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, departement de genie chimique, C.P. 6079, Station centre-ville, Montreal, Que., H3C-3A7 (Canada)], E-mail: basil.favis@polymtl.ca

    2008-04-15

    We propose a new sequential stochastic simulation approach for black and white images in which we focus on the accurate reproduction of the small scale geometry. Our approach aims at reproducing correctly the connectivity properties and the geometry of clusters which are small with respect to a given length scale called block size. Our method is based on the analysis of statistical relationships between adjacent square pieces of image called blocks. We estimate the transition probabilities between adjacent blocks of pixels in a training image. The simulations are constructed by juxtaposing one by one square blocks of pixels, hence the term patchwork simulations. We compare the performance of patchwork simulations with Strebelle's multipoint simulation algorithm on several types of images of increasing complexity. For images composed of clusters which are small with respect to the block size (e.g. squares, discs and sticks), our patchwork approach produces better results than Strebelle's method. The most noticeable improvement is that the cluster geometry is usually reproduced accurately. The accuracy of the patchwork approach is limited primarily by the block size. Clusters which are significantly larger than the block size are usually not reproduced accurately. As an example, we applied this approach to the analysis of a co-continuous polymer blend morphology as derived from an electron microscope micrograph.

  3. Uncertainty correlation in stochastic safety analysis of natural circulation decay heat removal of liquid metal reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takata, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Akira

    2009-01-01

    Since various uncertainties of input variables are involved and nonlinearly-correlated in the Best Estimate (BE) plant dynamics code, it is of importance to evaluate the importance of input uncertainty to the computational results and to estimate the accuracy of the confidence level of the results. In order to estimate the importance and the accuracy, the authors have applied the stochastic safety analysis procedure using the Latin Hypercube sampling method to Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR) natural circulation Decay Heat Removal (DHR) phenomenon in the present paper. 17 input variables are chosen for the analyses and 5 influential variables, which affect the maximum coolant temperature at the core in a short period of time (several tens seconds), are selected to investigate the importance by comparing with the full-scope parametric analysis. As a result, it has been demonstrated that a comparative small number of samples is sufficient enough to estimate the dominant input variable and the confidence level. Furthermore, the influence of the sampling method on the accuracy of the upper tolerance limit (confidence level of 95%) has been examined based on the Wilks' formula. (author)

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Cellular Networks using Stochastic Geometry: A Tutorial

    KAUST Repository

    Elsawy, Hesham; Salem, Ahmed Sultan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim; Win, Moe Z.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a tutorial on stochastic geometry (SG) based analysis for cellular networks. This tutorial is distinguished by its depth with respect to wireless communication details and its focus on cellular networks. The paper starts by modeling and analyzing the baseband interference in a baseline single-tier downlink cellular network with single antenna base stations and universal frequency reuse. Then, it characterizes signal-to-interference-plus-noise-ratio (SINR) and its related performance metrics. In particular, a unified approach to conduct error probability, outage probability, and transmission rate analysis is presented. Although the main focus of the paper is on cellular networks, the presented unified approach applies for other types of wireless networks that impose interference protection around receivers. The paper then extends the unified approach to capture cellular network characteristics (e.g., frequency reuse, multiple antenna, power control, etc.). It also presents numerical examples associated with demonstrations and discussions. To this end, the paper highlights the state-of-the- art research and points out future research directions.

  5. Technical Efficiency of Teaching Hospitals in Iran: The Use of Stochastic Frontier Analysis, 1999–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Goudarzi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Hospitals are highly resource-dependent settings, which spend a large proportion of healthcare financial resources. The analysis of hospital efficiency can provide insight into how scarce resources are used to create health values. This study examines the Technical Efficiency (TE of 12 teaching hospitals affiliated with Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS between 1999 and 2011. Methods The Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA method was applied to estimate the efficiency of TUMS hospitals. A best function, referred to as output and input parameters, was calculated for the hospitals. Number of medical doctors, nurses, and other personnel, active beds, and outpatient admissions were considered as the input variables and number of inpatient admissions as an output variable. Results The mean level of TE was 59% (ranging from 22 to 81%. During the study period the efficiency increased from 61 to 71%. Outpatient admission, other personnel and medical doctors significantly and positively affected the production (P< 0.05. Concerning the Constant Return to Scale (CRS, an optimal production scale was found, implying that the productions of the hospitals were approximately constant. Conclusion Findings of this study show a remarkable waste of resources in the TUMS hospital during the decade considered. This warrants policy-makers and top management in TUMS to consider steps to improve the financial management of the university hospitals.

  6. Modeling and Analysis of Cellular Networks using Stochastic Geometry: A Tutorial

    KAUST Repository

    Elsawy, Hesham

    2016-11-03

    This paper presents a tutorial on stochastic geometry (SG) based analysis for cellular networks. This tutorial is distinguished by its depth with respect to wireless communication details and its focus on cellular networks. The paper starts by modeling and analyzing the baseband interference in a baseline single-tier downlink cellular network with single antenna base stations and universal frequency reuse. Then, it characterizes signal-to-interference-plus-noise-ratio (SINR) and its related performance metrics. In particular, a unified approach to conduct error probability, outage probability, and transmission rate analysis is presented. Although the main focus of the paper is on cellular networks, the presented unified approach applies for other types of wireless networks that impose interference protection around receivers. The paper then extends the unified approach to capture cellular network characteristics (e.g., frequency reuse, multiple antenna, power control, etc.). It also presents numerical examples associated with demonstrations and discussions. To this end, the paper highlights the state-of-the- art research and points out future research directions.

  7. A patchwork approach to stochastic simulation: A route towards the analysis of morphology in multiphase systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Ouassini, Ayoub; Saucier, Antoine; Marcotte, Denis; Favis, Basil D.

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new sequential stochastic simulation approach for black and white images in which we focus on the accurate reproduction of the small scale geometry. Our approach aims at reproducing correctly the connectivity properties and the geometry of clusters which are small with respect to a given length scale called block size. Our method is based on the analysis of statistical relationships between adjacent square pieces of image called blocks. We estimate the transition probabilities between adjacent blocks of pixels in a training image. The simulations are constructed by juxtaposing one by one square blocks of pixels, hence the term patchwork simulations. We compare the performance of patchwork simulations with Strebelle's multipoint simulation algorithm on several types of images of increasing complexity. For images composed of clusters which are small with respect to the block size (e.g. squares, discs and sticks), our patchwork approach produces better results than Strebelle's method. The most noticeable improvement is that the cluster geometry is usually reproduced accurately. The accuracy of the patchwork approach is limited primarily by the block size. Clusters which are significantly larger than the block size are usually not reproduced accurately. As an example, we applied this approach to the analysis of a co-continuous polymer blend morphology as derived from an electron microscope micrograph

  8. Stochastic coalgebraic logic

    CERN Document Server

    Doberkat, Ernst-Erich

    2009-01-01

    Combining coalgebraic reasoning, stochastic systems and logic, this volume presents the principles of coalgebraic logic from a categorical perspective. Modal logics are also discussed, including probabilistic interpretations and an analysis of Kripke models.

  9. Robust synchronization analysis in nonlinear stochastic cellular networks with time-varying delays, intracellular perturbations and intercellular noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Wei; Chen, Bor-Sen

    2011-08-01

    Naturally, a cellular network consisted of a large amount of interacting cells is complex. These cells have to be synchronized in order to emerge their phenomena for some biological purposes. However, the inherently stochastic intra and intercellular interactions are noisy and delayed from biochemical processes. In this study, a robust synchronization scheme is proposed for a nonlinear stochastic time-delay coupled cellular network (TdCCN) in spite of the time-varying process delay and intracellular parameter perturbations. Furthermore, a nonlinear stochastic noise filtering ability is also investigated for this synchronized TdCCN against stochastic intercellular and environmental disturbances. Since it is very difficult to solve a robust synchronization problem with the Hamilton-Jacobi inequality (HJI) matrix, a linear matrix inequality (LMI) is employed to solve this problem via the help of a global linearization method. Through this robust synchronization analysis, we can gain a more systemic insight into not only the robust synchronizability but also the noise filtering ability of TdCCN under time-varying process delays, intracellular perturbations and intercellular disturbances. The measures of robustness and noise filtering ability of a synchronized TdCCN have potential application to the designs of neuron transmitters, on-time mass production of biochemical molecules, and synthetic biology. Finally, a benchmark of robust synchronization design in Escherichia coli repressilators is given to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed methods. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Stability Analysis for Car Following Model Based on Control Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Xiang-Pei; Li Zhi-Peng; Ge Hong-Xia

    2014-01-01

    Stability analysis is one of the key issues in car-following theory. The stability analysis with Lyapunov function for the two velocity difference car-following model (for short, TVDM) is conducted and the control method to suppress traffic congestion is introduced. Numerical simulations are given and results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  11. Neutron fluctuation analysis in a subcritical multiplying system with a stochastically pulsed poisson source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostic, Lj.

    2003-01-01

    The influence of the stochastically pulsed Poisson source to the statistical properties of the subcritical multiplying system is analyzed in the paper. It is shown a strong dependence on the pulse period and pulse width of the source (author)

  12. Analysis of novel stochastic switched SILI epidemic models with continuous and impulsive control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shujing; Zhong, Deming; Zhang, Yan

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we establish two new stochastic switched epidemic models with continuous and impulsive control. The stochastic perturbations are considered for the natural death rate in each equation of the models. Firstly, a stochastic switched SILI model with continuous control schemes is investigated. By using Lyapunov-Razumikhin method, the sufficient conditions for extinction in mean are established. Our result shows that the disease could be die out theoretically if threshold value R is less than one, regardless of whether the disease-free solutions of the corresponding subsystems are stable or unstable. Then, a stochastic switched SILI model with continuous control schemes and pulse vaccination is studied. The threshold value R is derived. The global attractivity of the model is also obtained. At last, numerical simulations are carried out to support our results.

  13. Stochastic Analysis of Advection-diffusion-Reactive Systems with Applications to Reactive Transport in Porous Media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tartakovsky, Daniel

    2013-08-30

    We developed new CDF and PDF methods for solving non-linear stochastic hyperbolic equations that does not rely on linearization approximations and allows for rigorous formulation of the boundary conditions.

  14. A Resampling-Based Stochastic Approximation Method for Analysis of Large Geostatistical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Cheng, Yichen; Song, Qifan; Park, Jincheol; Yang, Ping

    2013-01-01

    large number of observations. This article proposes a resampling-based stochastic approximation method to address this challenge. At each iteration of the proposed method, a small subsample is drawn from the full dataset, and then the current estimate

  15. Perturbation analysis of spontaneous action potential initiation by stochastic ion channels

    KAUST Repository

    Keener, James P.; Newby, Jay M.

    2011-01-01

    A stochastic interpretation of spontaneous action potential initiation is developed for the Morris-Lecar equations. Initiation of a spontaneous action potential can be interpreted as the escape from one of the wells of a double well potential

  16. Analysis of RLC Elements under Stochastic Conditions Using the First and the Second Moments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WALCZAK, J.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method of determining the first two moments of the response for basic components of electrical circuits, i.e. resistors, inductors and capacitors. The paper goal was to obtain closed form formulae for the moments describing voltage or current stochastic processes. It has been assumed that the element parameters R (resistance, L (inductance and C (capacitance could be random variables, deterministic functions or stochastic processes and excitations are second order stochastic processes. Moreover, two cases of dependence between the random parameters and the excitation stochastic processes have been considered. The obtained results enable determination of exact solutions for the first two moments without application of numerical algorithms.

  17. Modeling, Stability Analysis and Active Stabilization of Multiple DC-Microgrids Clusters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiee, Qobad; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Vasquez, Juan Carlos

    2014-01-01

    ), and more especially during interconnection with other MGs, creating dc MG clusters. This paper develops a small signal model for dc MGs from the control point of view, in order to study stability analysis and investigate effects of CPLs and line impedances between the MGs on stability of these systems....... This model can be also used to synthesis and study dynamics of control loops in dc MGs and also dc MG clusters. An active stabilization method is proposed to be implemented as a dc active power filter (APF) inside the MGs in order to not only increase damping of dc MGs at the presence of CPLs but also...... to improve their stability while connecting to the other MGs. Simulation results are provided to evaluate the developed models and demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed active stabilization technique....

  18. The Relative Efficiencies of Research Universities of Science and Technology in China: Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuanyi, Wang; Xiaohong, Lv; Shikui, Zhao

    2016-01-01

    This paper applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to explore the relative efficiency of China's research universities of science and technology. According to the finding, when talent training is the only output, the efficiency of research universities of science and technology is far lower than that of…

  19. Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang; Vossen, Georg; Thombansen, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.

  20. Linear and nonlinear stability analysis, associated to experimental fast reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amorim, E.S. do; Moura Neto, C. de; Rosa, M.A.P.

    1980-07-01

    Phenomena associated to the physics of fast neutrons were analysed by linear and nonlinear Kinetics with arbitrary feedback. The theoretical foundations of linear kinetics and transfer functions aiming at the analysis of fast reactors stability, are established. These stability conditions were analitically proposed and investigated by digital and analogic programs. (E.G.) [pt

  1. Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Nonlinear Dynamics, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany); Vossen, Georg [Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Chair for Applied Mathematics and Numerical Simulations, Reinarzstr.. 49, 47805 Krefeld (Germany); Thombansen, Ulrich [RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Laser Technology, Steinbachstr. 15, 52047 Aachen (Germany)

    2016-06-08

    A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.

  2. Stability analysis in tachyonic potential chameleon cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farajollahi, H.; Salehi, A.; Tayebi, F.; Ravanpak, A.

    2011-01-01

    We study general properties of attractors for tachyonic potential chameleon scalar-field model which possess cosmological scaling solutions. An analytic formulation is given to obtain fixed points with a discussion on their stability. The model predicts a dynamical equation of state parameter with phantom crossing behavior for an accelerating universe. We constrain the parameters of the model by best fitting with the recent data-sets from supernovae and simulated data points for redshift drift experiment generated by Monte Carlo simulations

  3. Stability analysis in tachyonic potential chameleon cosmology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farajollahi, H.; Salehi, A.; Tayebi, F.; Ravanpak, A., E-mail: hosseinf@guilan.ac.ir, E-mail: a.salehi@guilan.ac.ir, E-mail: ftayebi@guilan.ac.ir, E-mail: aravanpak@guilan.ac.ir [Department of Physics, University of Guilan, Rasht (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-05-01

    We study general properties of attractors for tachyonic potential chameleon scalar-field model which possess cosmological scaling solutions. An analytic formulation is given to obtain fixed points with a discussion on their stability. The model predicts a dynamical equation of state parameter with phantom crossing behavior for an accelerating universe. We constrain the parameters of the model by best fitting with the recent data-sets from supernovae and simulated data points for redshift drift experiment generated by Monte Carlo simulations.

  4. Stability analysis for downflow in heated channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampaio, P.A.B. de.

    1985-01-01

    Stability and flow distribution are analysed for downflow in heated channels. It is shown that at low flow rates instabilities associated with the buoyancy forces may appear. A computer code in FORTRAN language to determine downflow distribution among n heated channels is presented. The model used to calculate downflow distribution and the onset of instability is compared with experiments performed in a test section with two parallel channels. (Author) [pt

  5. MHD stability analysis of ELMs in MAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saarelma, S; Hender, T C; Kirk, A; Meyer, H; Wilson, H R; Team, MAST

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, edge stability analyses of the MAST tokamak plasmas are presented. The analyses show that the experimental equilibrium prior to an edge localized mode (ELM) is unstable against very narrow peeling modes with low growth rate. When the edge pressure gradient becomes steeper, wider peeling-ballooning modes with larger growth rate become unstable. These modes are the likely triggers of ELMs. In the analyses the required pressure increase for destabilization is sensitive to how the X-point is modelled in the equilibrium reconstruction. A 'sharp' X-point approximation is more stable against the peeling-ballooning modes than a 'round' one. An experimental ELM-free single null plasma is significantly more stable against the peeling-ballooning modes than the double null plasma, but this is unlikely to be directly due to the single null geometry but rather due to the different plasma profiles. Sheared toroidal rotation is able to stabilize the peeling-ballooning modes. This suggests the following model for the ELM triggering: the rotation shear keeps the edge stable until the pressure gradient has sufficiently exceeded the stability boundary for the static plasma. When the mode becomes unstable, it starts to grow, ties the flux surfaces together and flattens the rotation profile. This further destabilizes the edge plasma leading to an ELM crash

  6. Methods for High-Order Multi-Scale and Stochastic Problems Analysis, Algorithms, and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-17

    the good performance of these schemes. In [4], we study spectral collocation methods for functions which are analytic in the open interval but have...the detailed detonation struc- ture. The efficient parallel AMR-WENO method provides a good tool for these detonation simulations. In [10], a...with his students a few years ago. This method has now found a wide usage in applications. In [11], we give a stability analysis, using both the GKS

  7. Distributed Fault Detection for a Class of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingyong Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel distributed fault detection strategy for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems is presented. Different from the existing design procedures for fault detection, a novel fault detection observer, which consists of a nonlinear fault detection filter and a consensus filter, is proposed to detect the nonlinear stochastic systems faults. Firstly, the outputs of the nonlinear stochastic systems act as inputs of a consensus filter. Secondly, a nonlinear fault detection filter is constructed to provide estimation of unmeasurable system states and residual signals using outputs of the consensus filter. Stability analysis of the consensus filter is rigorously investigated. Meanwhile, the design procedures of the nonlinear fault detection filter are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Taking the influence of the system stochastic noises into consideration, an outstanding feature of the proposed scheme is that false alarms can be reduced dramatically. Finally, simulation results are provided to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed fault detection approach.

  8. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carvalho, Pedro, E-mail: pedrocarv@coc.ufrj.br [Computational Modelling in Engineering and Geophysics Laboratory (LAMEMO), Department of Civil Engineering, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av. Pedro Calmon - Ilha do Fundão, 21941-596 Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Center for Urban and Regional Systems (CESUR), CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Marques, Rui Cunha, E-mail: pedro.c.carvalho@tecnico.ulisboa.pt [Center for Urban and Regional Systems (CESUR), CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2016-02-15

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. - Highlights: • This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the water sector; • The usefulness of the application of Bayesian methods is highlighted; • Important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope are found.

  10. Comparative analysis of cogeneration power plants optimization based on stochastic method using superstructure and process simulator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Leonardo Rodrigues de [Instituto Federal do Espirito Santo, Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: leoaraujo@ifes.edu.br; Donatelli, Joao Luiz Marcon [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo (UFES), Vitoria, ES (Brazil)], E-mail: joaoluiz@npd.ufes.br; Silva, Edmar Alino da Cruz [Instituto Tecnologico de Aeronautica (ITA/CTA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Azevedo, Joao Luiz F. [Instituto de Aeronautica e Espaco (CTA/IAE/ALA), Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Thermal systems are essential in facilities such as thermoelectric plants, cogeneration plants, refrigeration systems and air conditioning, among others, in which much of the energy consumed by humanity is processed. In a world with finite natural sources of fuels and growing energy demand, issues related with thermal system design, such as cost estimative, design complexity, environmental protection and optimization are becoming increasingly important. Therefore the need to understand the mechanisms that degrade energy, improve energy sources use, reduce environmental impacts and also reduce project, operation and maintenance costs. In recent years, a consistent development of procedures and techniques for computational design of thermal systems has occurred. In this context, the fundamental objective of this study is a performance comparative analysis of structural and parametric optimization of a cogeneration system using stochastic methods: genetic algorithm and simulated annealing. This research work uses a superstructure, modelled in a process simulator, IPSEpro of SimTech, in which the appropriate design case studied options are included. Accordingly, the cogeneration system optimal configuration is determined as a consequence of the optimization process, restricted within the configuration options included in the superstructure. The optimization routines are written in MsExcel Visual Basic, in order to work perfectly coupled to the simulator process. At the end of the optimization process, the system optimal configuration, given the characteristics of each specific problem, should be defined. (author)

  11. Extended method of moments for deterministic analysis of stochastic multistable neurodynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deco, Gustavo; Marti, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    The analysis of transitions in stochastic neurodynamical systems is essential to understand the computational principles that underlie those perceptual and cognitive processes involving multistable phenomena, like decision making and bistable perception. To investigate the role of noise in a multistable neurodynamical system described by coupled differential equations, one usually considers numerical simulations, which are time consuming because of the need for sufficiently many trials to capture the statistics of the influence of the fluctuations on that system. An alternative analytical approach involves the derivation of deterministic differential equations for the moments of the distribution of the activity of the neuronal populations. However, the application of the method of moments is restricted by the assumption that the distribution of the state variables of the system takes on a unimodal Gaussian shape. We extend in this paper the classical moments method to the case of bimodal distribution of the state variables, such that a reduced system of deterministic coupled differential equations can be derived for the desired regime of multistability

  12. Extended method of moments for deterministic analysis of stochastic multistable neurodynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deco, Gustavo; Martí, Daniel

    2007-03-01

    The analysis of transitions in stochastic neurodynamical systems is essential to understand the computational principles that underlie those perceptual and cognitive processes involving multistable phenomena, like decision making and bistable perception. To investigate the role of noise in a multistable neurodynamical system described by coupled differential equations, one usually considers numerical simulations, which are time consuming because of the need for sufficiently many trials to capture the statistics of the influence of the fluctuations on that system. An alternative analytical approach involves the derivation of deterministic differential equations for the moments of the distribution of the activity of the neuronal populations. However, the application of the method of moments is restricted by the assumption that the distribution of the state variables of the system takes on a unimodal Gaussian shape. We extend in this paper the classical moments method to the case of bimodal distribution of the state variables, such that a reduced system of deterministic coupled differential equations can be derived for the desired regime of multistability.

  13. Stochastic analysis of 1D and 2D surface topography of x-ray mirrors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyurina, Anastasia Y.; Tyurin, Yury N.; Yashchuk, Valeriy V.

    2017-08-01

    The design and evaluation of the expected performance of new optical systems requires sophisticated and reliable information about the surface topography for planned optical elements before they are fabricated. The problem is especially complex in the case of x-ray optics, particularly for the X-ray Surveyor under development and other missions. Modern x-ray source facilities are reliant upon the availability of optics with unprecedented quality (surface slope accuracy quality optics. The uniqueness of the optics and limited number of proficient vendors makes the fabrication extremely time consuming and expensive, mostly due to the limitations in accuracy and measurement rate of metrology used in fabrication. We discuss improvements in metrology efficiency via comprehensive statistical analysis of a compact volume of metrology data. The data is considered stochastic and a new statistical model called Invertible Time Invariant Linear Filter (InTILF) is developed now for 2D surface profiles to provide compact description of the 2D data additionally to 1D data treated so far. The model captures faint patterns in the data and serves as a quality metric and feedback to polishing processes, avoiding high resolution metrology measurements over the entire optical surface. The modeling, implemented in our Beatmark software, allows simulating metrology data for optics made by the same vendor and technology. The forecast data is vital for reliable specification for optical fabrication, to be exactly adequate for the required system performance.

  14. Estimating and decomposing productivity growth of the electricity generation industry in Malaysia: A stochastic frontier analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See, Kok Fong; Coelli, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of the Malaysian electricity generation industry over the 1998 to 2005 period. The stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach is used to measure TFP change and decompose TFP growth into efficiency change and technical progress. We find that it achieved average annual TFP growth of 2.34%, with technical change contributing the most to the TFP growth over the eight year period. We hence hypothesise that the new power plants with their newer capital-embodied technologies commencing during the sample period are likely to be the main reason for this strong technical change. In addition, it is also noted that this estimate for the Malaysian electricity generation industry is larger than the estimate obtained for the electricity sector as a whole, where we obtain 1.34% per year for a comparable period. -- Highlights: •This is the first empirical study that examines the TFP growth of the Malaysian electricity generation industry using the SFA method. •An average annual TFP change of the Malaysian electricity generation industry over eight years (1998-2005) has been achieved at 2.34% per year. •The technical progress contributing the most to the TFP growth and technical efficiency change and scale change making small contributions over the sample period

  15. Analysis and development of stochastic multigrid methods in lattice field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabenstein, M.

    1994-01-01

    We study the relation between the dynamical critical behavior and the kinematics of stochastic multigrid algorithms. The scale dependence of acceptance rates for nonlocal Metropolis updates is analyzed with the help of an approximation formula. A quantitative study of the kinematics of multigrid algorithms in several interacting models is performed. We find that for a critical model with Hamiltonian H(Φ) absence of critical slowing down can only be expected if the expansion of (H(Φ+ψ)) in terms of the shift ψ contains no relevant term (mass term). The predictions of this rule was verified in a multigrid Monte Carlo simulation of the Sine Gordon model in two dimensions. Our analysis can serve as a guideline for the development of new algorithms: We propose a new multigrid method for nonabelian lattice gauge theory, the time slice blocking. For SU(2) gauge fields in two dimensions, critical slowing down is almost completely eliminated by this method, in accordance with the theoretical prediction. The generalization of the time slice blocking to SU(2) in four dimensions is investigated analytically and by numerical simulations. Compared to two dimensions, the local disorder in the four dimensional gauge field leads to kinematical problems. (orig.)

  16. Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Evaluation of Combined Heat and Power Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haichao Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Combined heat and power (CHP is a promising technology that can contribute to energy efficiency and environmental protection. More CHP-based energy systems are planned for the future. This makes the evaluation and selection of CHP systems very important. In this paper, 16 CHP units representing different technologies are taken into account for multicriteria evaluation with respect to the end users’ requirements. These CHP technologies cover a wide range of power outputs and fuel types. They are evaluated from the energy, economy and environment (3E points of view, specifically including the criteria of efficiency, investment cost, electricity cost, heat cost, CO2 production and footprint. Uncertainties and imprecision are common both in criteria measurements and weights, therefore the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA model is used in aiding this decision making problem. These uncertainties are treated better using a probability distribution function and Monte Carlo simulation in the model. Moreover, the idea of “feasible weight space (FWS” which represents the union of all preference information from decision makers (DMs is proposed. A complementary judgment matrix (CJM is introduced to determine the FWS. It can be found that the idea of FWS plus CJM is well compatible with SMAA and thus make the evaluation reliable.

  17. Estimating size and scope economies in the Portuguese water sector using the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the Portuguese water sector applying Bayesian and classical statistics to make inference in stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). This study proves the usefulness and advantages of the application of Bayesian statistics for making inference in SFA over traditional SFA which just uses classical statistics. The resulting Bayesian methods allow overcoming some problems that arise in the application of the traditional SFA, such as the bias in small samples and skewness of residuals. In the present case study of the water sector in Portugal, these Bayesian methods provide more plausible and acceptable results. Based on the results obtained we found that there are important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope in the Portuguese water sector, pointing out to the huge advantages in undertaking mergers by joining the retail and wholesale components and by joining the drinking water and wastewater services. - Highlights: • This study aims to search for economies of size and scope in the water sector; • The usefulness of the application of Bayesian methods is highlighted; • Important economies of output density, economies of size, economies of vertical integration and economies of scope are found.

  18. Economic analysis of energy system considering the uncertainties of crude oil, natural gas and nuclear utilization employing stochastic dynamic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Keita; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents an economic rationality analysis of power generation mix by stochastic dynamic programming considering fuel price uncertainties and supply disruption risks such as import disruption and nuclear power plant shutdown risk. The situation revolving around Japan's energy security adopted the past statistics, it cannot be applied to a quantitative analysis of future uncertainties. Further objective and quantitative evaluation methods are required in order to analyze Japan's energy system and make it more resilient in sight of long time scale. In this paper, the authors firstly develop the cost minimization model considering oil and natural gas price respectively by stochastic dynamic programming. Then, the authors show several premises of model and an example of result with related to crude oil stockpile, liquefied natural gas stockpile and nuclear power plant capacity. (author)

  19. Stability analysis of impulsive functional differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Stamova, Ivanka

    2009-01-01

    This book is devoted to impulsive functional differential equations which are a natural generalization of impulsive ordinary differential equations (without delay) and of functional differential equations (without impulses). At the present time the qualitative theory of such equationsis under rapid development. After a presentation of the fundamental theory of existence, uniqueness and continuability of solutions, a systematic development of stability theory for that class of problems is given which makes the book unique. It addresses to a wide audience such as mathematicians, applied research

  20. Stability analysis of host dynamics for hiv

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geetha, V.; Balamuralitharan, S.

    2018-04-01

    The phenomenon of disease modeling can be easily accomplished through mathematical framework. In this paper the transmission of disease in human is represented mathematically as a nonlinear system. We think about the components of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among the beginning periods of illness. Throughout this paper we have determined those logical representation of a three-compartmental HIV demonstrate for their stability evaluation. We tend to likewise explore the stimulating behavior of the model and acquire those Steady states for the disease-free and the endemic agreement. The framework can be evaluated by reproduction number R0. We additionally clarify the numerical recreation and their outcomes.

  1. Advances in power system modelling, control and stability analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Milano, Federico

    2016-01-01

    Advances in Power System Modelling, Control and Stability Analysis captures the variety of new methodologies and technologies that are changing the way modern electric power systems are modelled, simulated and operated.

  2. Genotype x environment interaction and stability analysis for yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    etc

    2015-05-06

    . Combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) for yield and yield components revealed highly significant .... yield stability among varieties, multi-location trials with ... Mean grain yield (kg/ha) of 17 Kabuli-type chickpea genotypes ...

  3. stability analysis of ssss thin rectangular plate using multi

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The stability analysis of all four edges simply supported (SSSS) thin ... average percentage difference of K – values from two previous works and the present study when compared with ... freedom eigen value problem of the elastic buckling of.

  4. Stability Analysis of a Reaction-Diffusion System Modeling Atherogenesis

    KAUST Repository

    Ibragimov, Akif; Ritter, Laura; Walton, Jay R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a linear, asymptotic stability analysis for a reaction-diffusionconvection system modeling atherogenesis, the initiation of atherosclerosis, as an inflammatory instability. Motivated by the disease paradigm articulated by Ross

  5. Yield stability analysis of pearl millet hybrids in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hope&shola

    2006-02-02

    .] was ... Genotype x environment interaction was observed, a large component of which was accounted ... The importance of evaluating many potential genotypes .... Pooled analysis of variance for stability of grain yield (t/ha).

  6. ORIGINAL ARTICLE Stability Analysis of Delayed Cournot Model in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HP

    and Lyapunov method of nonlinear stability analysis are employed. It is ascertained ... and the rival player makes decision without delay, it leads to instability of the dynamic system at ... phenomena such as economic growth, prediction and ...

  7. COMPARISON OF EIGENMODE-BASED AND RANDOM FIELD-BASED IMPERFECTION MODELING FOR THE STOCHASTIC BUCKLING ANALYSIS OF I-SECTION BEAM–COLUMNS

    KAUST Repository

    STAVREV, A.; STEFANOV, D.; SCHILLINGER, D.; RANK, E.

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty of geometric imperfections in a series of nominally equal I-beams leads to a variability of corresponding buckling loads. Its analysis requires a stochastic imperfection model, which can be derived either by the simple variation

  8. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  9. Development of a generalized stochastic model for the analysis of monoenergetic space-time nuclear factor Kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Nhu Viet Ha

    2011-02-01

    To predict the space-time dependent behavior of a nuclear reactor, the conventional space-dependent kinetics equations are widely used for treating the spatial variables. However, the solutions of such deterministic space-dependent kinetics equations, which give only the mean values of the neutron population and the delayed neutron precursor concentrations, do not offer sufficient insight into the actual dynamic processes within a reactor, where the interacting populations vary randomly with space and time. It is also noted that at high power levels, the random behavior of a reactor is negligible but at low power levels, such as at start-up, random fluctuations in population dynamics can be significant. To mathematically describe the evolution of the state of a nuclear reactor using a set of stochastic kinetics equations, the forward stochastic model (FSM) in stochastic kinetics theory is devised through the concept of reactor transition probability and its probability generating function as the spatial domain of a reactor is partitioned into a number of space cells. Nevertheless, the FSM equations for the mean value of neutron and precursor distribution are deterministic-like. Furthermore, the numerical treatment of the FSM equations for the means, variances, and covariances is quite complicated and time-consuming. In the present study, a generalized stochastic model (called the stochastic space-dependent kinetics model or SSKM) based on the FSM and the Its stochastic differential equations was newly developed for the analysis of monoenergetic spacetime nuclear reactor kinetics in one dimension. First, the FSM equations for determining the mean values of neutron and delayed-neutron precursor populations were considered as the deterministic ones without taking into account their variances and covariances. Second, the system of interest was randomized again in the light of the Its stochastic differential equations in order to derive the SSKM. The proposed model

  10. Stochastic and sensitivity analysis of shape error of inflatable antenna reflectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    San, Bingbing; Yang, Qingshan; Yin, Liwei

    2017-03-01

    Inflatable antennas are promising candidates to realize future satellite communications and space observations since they are lightweight, low-cost and small-packaged-volume. However, due to their high flexibility, inflatable reflectors are difficult to manufacture accurately, which may result in undesirable shape errors, and thus affect their performance negatively. In this paper, the stochastic characteristics of shape errors induced during manufacturing process are investigated using Latin hypercube sampling coupled with manufacture simulations. Four main random error sources are involved, including errors in membrane thickness, errors in elastic modulus of membrane, boundary deviations and pressure variations. Using regression and correlation analysis, a global sensitivity study is conducted to rank the importance of these error sources. This global sensitivity analysis is novel in that it can take into account the random variation and the interaction between error sources. Analyses are parametrically carried out with various focal-length-to-diameter ratios (F/D) and aperture sizes (D) of reflectors to investigate their effects on significance ranking of error sources. The research reveals that RMS (Root Mean Square) of shape error is a random quantity with an exponent probability distribution and features great dispersion; with the increase of F/D and D, both mean value and standard deviation of shape errors are increased; in the proposed range, the significance ranking of error sources is independent of F/D and D; boundary deviation imposes the greatest effect with a much higher weight than the others; pressure variation ranks the second; error in thickness and elastic modulus of membrane ranks the last with very close sensitivities to pressure variation. Finally, suggestions are given for the control of the shape accuracy of reflectors and allowable values of error sources are proposed from the perspective of reliability.

  11. Development of random geometry capability in RMC code for stochastic media analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Shichang; She, Ding; Liang, Jin-gang; Wang, Kan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Monte Carlo method plays an important role in modeling of particle transport in random media. • Three stochastic geometry modeling methods have been developed in RMC. • The stochastic effects of the randomly dispersed fuel particles are analyzed. • Investigation of accuracy and efficiency of three methods has been carried out. • All the methods are effective, and explicit modeling is regarded as the best choice. - Abstract: Simulation of particle transport in random media poses a challenge for traditional deterministic transport methods, due to the significant effects of spatial and energy self-shielding. Monte Carlo method plays an important role in accurate simulation of random media, owing to its flexible geometry modeling and the use of continuous-energy nuclear cross sections. Three stochastic geometry modeling methods including Random Lattice Method, Chord Length Sampling and explicit modeling approach with mesh acceleration technique, have been developed in RMC to simulate the particle transport in the dispersed fuels. The verifications of the accuracy and the investigations of the calculation efficiency have been carried out. The stochastic effects of the randomly dispersed fuel particles are also analyzed. The results show that all three stochastic geometry modeling methods can account for the effects of the random dispersion of fuel particles, and the explicit modeling method can be regarded as the best choice

  12. Approximating Preemptive Stochastic Scheduling

    OpenAIRE

    Megow Nicole; Vredeveld Tjark

    2009-01-01

    We present constant approximative policies for preemptive stochastic scheduling. We derive policies with a guaranteed performance ratio of 2 for scheduling jobs with release dates on identical parallel machines subject to minimizing the sum of weighted completion times. Our policies as well as their analysis apply also to the recently introduced more general model of stochastic online scheduling. The performance guarantee we give matches the best result known for the corresponding determinist...

  13. Stochastic analysis of laminated composite plates on elastic foundation: The cases of post-buckling behavior and nonlinear free vibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B.N.; Lal, Achchhe

    2010-01-01

    This study deals with the stochastic post-buckling and nonlinear free vibration analysis of a laminated composite plate resting on a two parameters Pasternak foundation with Winkler cubic nonlinearity having uncertain system properties. The system properties are modeled as basic random variables. A C 0 nonlinear finite element formulation of the random problem based on higher-order shear deformation theory in the von Karman sense is presented. A direct iterative method in conjunction with a stochastic nonlinear finite element method proposed earlier by the authors is extended to analyze the effect of uncertainty in system properties on the post-buckling and nonlinear free vibration of the composite plates having Winler type of geometric nonlinearity. Mean as well as standard deviation of the responses have been obtained for various combinations of geometric parameters, foundation parameters, stacking sequences and boundary conditions and compared with those available in the literature and Monte Carlo simulation.

  14. Random function representation of stationary stochastic vector processes for probability density evolution analysis of wind-induced structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui

    2018-06-01

    This paper develops a hybrid approach of spectral representation and random function for simulating stationary stochastic vector processes. In the proposed approach, the high-dimensional random variables, included in the original spectral representation (OSR) formula, could be effectively reduced to only two elementary random variables by introducing the random functions that serve as random constraints. Based on this, a satisfactory simulation accuracy can be guaranteed by selecting a small representative point set of the elementary random variables. The probability information of the stochastic excitations can be fully emerged through just several hundred of sample functions generated by the proposed approach. Therefore, combined with the probability density evolution method (PDEM), it could be able to implement dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of engineering structures. For illustrative purposes, a stochastic turbulence wind velocity field acting on a frame-shear-wall structure is simulated by constructing three types of random functions to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach. Careful and in-depth studies concerning the probability density evolution analysis of the wind-induced structure have been conducted so as to better illustrate the application prospects of the proposed approach. Numerical examples also show that the proposed approach possesses a good robustness.

  15. Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

    2016-06-01

    Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

  16. The response analysis of fractional-order stochastic system via generalized cell mapping method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liang; Xue, Lili; Sun, Chunyan; Yue, Xiaole; Xu, Wei

    2018-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the response of a fractional-order stochastic system. The short memory principle is introduced to ensure that the response of the system is a Markov process. The generalized cell mapping method is applied to display the global dynamics of the noise-free system, such as attractors, basins of attraction, basin boundary, saddle, and invariant manifolds. The stochastic generalized cell mapping method is employed to obtain the evolutionary process of probability density functions of the response. The fractional-order ϕ 6 oscillator and the fractional-order smooth and discontinuous oscillator are taken as examples to give the implementations of our strategies. Studies have shown that the evolutionary direction of the probability density function of the fractional-order stochastic system is consistent with the unstable manifold. The effectiveness of the method is confirmed using Monte Carlo results.

  17. Global behavior analysis for stochastic system of 1,3-PD continuous fermentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xi; Kliemann, Wolfgang; Li, Chunfa; Feng, Enmin; Xiu, Zhilong

    2017-12-01

    Global behavior for stochastic system of continuous fermentation in glycerol bio-dissimilation to 1,3-propanediol by Klebsiella pneumoniae is analyzed in this paper. This bioprocess cannot avoid the stochastic perturbation caused by internal and external disturbance which reflect on the growth rate. These negative factors can limit and degrade the achievable performance of controlled systems. Based on multiplicity phenomena, the equilibriums and bifurcations of the deterministic system are analyzed. Then, a stochastic model is presented by a bounded Markov diffusion process. In order to analyze the global behavior, we compute the control sets for the associated control system. The probability distributions of relative supports are also computed. The simulation results indicate that how the disturbed biosystem tend to stationary behavior globally.

  18. An analysis of current drive by travelling wave based on theory of intrinsic stochasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakami, Akihiko; Midzuno, Yukio.

    1982-04-01

    The mechanism of the current generation in a collisionless plasma by a train of travelling mirrors with modulated phase velocity is studied based on the theory of intrinsic stochasticity. It is shown that, if the phase modulation is small, the main contribution to the current generation comes from the phase mixing of the trajectories of trapped electrons in each Fourier component of a driving wave. For the case of a moderate phase modulation, however, formation of a large stochastic region due to the overlapping of primary resonances is very effective for increasing the generated current. Large phase modulation has little advantage in the current generation because the stochastic regions are formed, so to speak, at random in the phase plane. The results of analytical evaluation based on the above theory agree quite well with results of numerical experiments. (author)

  19. Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basche, A.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

  20. ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVENESS OF METHODOLOGICAL SYSTEM FOR PROBABILITY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES COMPUTER-BASED LEARNING FOR PRE-SERVICE ENGINEERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Chumak

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The author substantiates that only methodological training systems of mathematical disciplines with implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT can meet the requirements of modern educational paradigm and make possible to increase the educational efficiency. Due to this fact, the necessity of developing the methodology of theory of probability and stochastic processes computer-based learning for pre-service engineers is underlined in the paper. The results of the experimental study for analysis of the efficiency of methodological system of theory of probability and stochastic processes computer-based learning for pre-service engineers are shown. The analysis includes three main stages: ascertaining, searching and forming. The key criteria of the efficiency of designed methodological system are the level of probabilistic and stochastic skills of students and their learning motivation. The effect of implementing the methodological system of probability theory and stochastic processes computer-based learning on the level of students’ IT literacy is shown in the paper. The expanding of the range of objectives of ICT applying by students is described by author. The level of formation of students’ learning motivation on the ascertaining and forming stages of the experiment is analyzed. The level of intrinsic learning motivation for pre-service engineers is defined on these stages of the experiment. For this purpose, the methodology of testing the students’ learning motivation in the chosen specialty is presented in the paper. The increasing of intrinsic learning motivation of the experimental group students (E group against the control group students (C group is demonstrated.

  1. Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

    2014-04-01

    The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

  2. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  3. Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Baumann

    Full Text Available Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

  4. Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Maize Farmers in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, F.; Wang, Y.; Yu, H.; Zhu, K.; Zhang, Z.; Zou, F. L. J.

    2015-01-01

    The research study was carried out to analyze the technical efficiency of maize growers through Cobb-Douglas type Stochastic Frontier Analysis in four villages of Muzaffarabad district, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. The proportional sampling allocation sampling technique was adopted to collect primary data from 80 sampled respondents in 2013-14. The maximum likelihood estimates of major inputs showed that seed, tractor hours, FYM and labor days have contributed significantly to increase the maize yield. However, the DAP and urea have shown no effect on maize yield. The mean technical efficiency was estimated at 83%, implying that the farmers can still enhance their technical efficiency by 11% within the given inputs and technology. The results have demonstrated that maize crop is lucrative crop in the study area as maize growers have received increasing return to scale i.e., 1.90 (Ep>1), hence economies of scale exists. The variance parameter lambda and gamma both were significant indicating the good fitness of model and inefficiency impact, respectively. The estimated value for gamma was 0.77 underscores that 77% variation in the production frontier was explained by technical inefficiency effect. The inefficiency indices showed that farmers with more schooling years and more number of contacts with extension agents were more efficient. Contrarily, age of the farmer and large farm size have inverse relation to technical efficiency of the farmers. This research study concludes that the use of more labor and application of farm yard manure is contributing significantly. It is recommended that the high input prices may be leveled off by the regulatory authorities so that farmers can apply the required crop inputs such as DAP and urea in study area. (author)

  5. Stability analysis of a heated channel cooled by supercritical water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magni, M. C.; Delmastro, D. F; Marcel, C. P

    2009-01-01

    A simple model to study thermal-hydraulic stability of a heated cannel under supercritical conditions is presented. Single cannel stability analysis for the SCWR (Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor) design was performed. The drastic change of fluid density in the reactor core of a SCWR may induce DWO (Density Wave Oscillations) similar to those observed in BWRs. Due to the similarities between subcritical and supercritical systems we may treat the supercritical fluid as a pseudo two-phase system. Thus, we may extend the modeling approach often used for boiling flow stability analysis to supercritical pressure operation conditions. The model developed in this work take into account three regions: a heavy fluid region, similar to an incompressible liquid; a zone where a heavy fluid and a light fluid coexist, similar to two-phase mixture; and a light fluid region which behaves like superheated steam. It was used the homogeneous equilibrium model (HEM) for the pseudo boiling zone, and the ideal gas model for the pseudo superheated steam zone. System stability maps were obtained using linear stability analysis in the frequency domain. Two possible instability mechanisms are observed: DWO and excursive Ledinegg instabilities. Also, a sensitivity analysis showed that frictions in pseudo superheated steam zone, together with acceleration effect, are the most destabilizing effects. On the other hand, frictions in pseudo liquid zone are the most important stabilizing effect. [es

  6. Stability analysis of the Ghana Research Reactor-1 (GHARR-1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Della, R.; Alhassan, E.; Adoo, N.A.; Bansah, C.Y.; Nyarko, B.J.B.; Akaho, E.H.K.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed a theoretical model to study the stability of the Ghana Research Reactor-1. • The neutronics transfer function was described by the point kinetics model for a single group of delayed neutrons. • The thermal hydraulics transfer function was based on the modified lumped parameter concept. • A computer code, RESA (REactor Stability Analysis) was developed. • Results show that the closed-loop transfer function was stable and well damped for variable operating power levels. - Abstract: A theoretical model has been developed to study the stability of the Ghana Research Reactor one (GHARR-1). The closed-loop transfer function of GHARR-1 was established based on the model, which involved the neutronics and the thermal hydraulics transfer functions. The reactor kinetics was described by the point kinetics model for a single group of delayed neutrons, whilst the thermal hydraulics transfer function was based on the modified lumped parameter concept. The inherent internal feedback effect due to the fuel and the coolant was represented by the fuel temperature coefficient and the moderator temperature coefficient respectively. A computer code, RESA (REactor Stability Analysis), entirely in Java was developed based on the model for systems analysis. Stability analysis of the open-loop transfer function of GHARR-1 based on the Nyquist criterion and Bode diagrams using RESA, has shown that the closed-loop transfer function was marginally stable for variable operating power levels. The relative stability margins of GHARR-1 were also identified

  7. Solar Dynamic Power System Stability Analysis and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momoh, James A.; Wang, Yanchun

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this research is to conduct dynamic analysis, control design, and control performance test of solar power system. Solar power system consists of generation system and distribution network system. A bench mark system is used in this research, which includes a generator with excitation system and governor, an ac/dc converter, six DDCU's and forty-eight loads. A detailed model is used for modeling generator. Excitation system is represented by a third order model. DDCU is represented by a seventh order system. The load is modeled by the combination of constant power and constant impedance. Eigen-analysis and eigen-sensitivity analysis are used for system dynamic analysis. The effects of excitation system, governor, ac/dc converter control, and the type of load on system stability are discussed. In order to improve system transient stability, nonlinear ac/dc converter control is introduced. The direct linearization method is used for control design. The dynamic analysis results show that these controls affect system stability in different ways. The parameter coordination of controllers are recommended based on the dynamic analysis. It is concluded from the present studies that system stability is improved by the coordination of control parameters and the nonlinear ac/dc converter control stabilize system oscillation caused by the load change and system fault efficiently.

  8. Stability Analysis of Neural Networks-Based System Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talel Korkobi

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper treats some problems related to nonlinear systems identification. A stability analysis neural network model for identifying nonlinear dynamic systems is presented. A constrained adaptive stable backpropagation updating law is presented and used in the proposed identification approach. The proposed backpropagation training algorithm is modified to obtain an adaptive learning rate guarantying convergence stability. The proposed learning rule is the backpropagation algorithm under the condition that the learning rate belongs to a specified range defining the stability domain. Satisfying such condition, unstable phenomena during the learning process are avoided. A Lyapunov analysis leads to the computation of the expression of a convenient adaptive learning rate verifying the convergence stability criteria. Finally, the elaborated training algorithm is applied in several simulations. The results confirm the effectiveness of the CSBP algorithm.

  9. Improved asymptotic stability analysis for uncertain delayed state neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Fernando O.; Palhares, Reinaldo M.; Ekel, Petr Ya.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a new linear matrix inequality (LMI) based approach to the stability analysis of artificial neural networks (ANN) subject to time-delay and polytope-bounded uncertainties in the parameters. The main objective is to propose a less conservative condition to the stability analysis using the Gu's discretized Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional theory and an alternative strategy to introduce slack matrices. Two computer simulations examples are performed to support the theoretical predictions. Particularly, in the first example, the Hopf bifurcation theory is used to verify the stability of the system when the origin falls into instability. The second example is presented to illustrate how the proposed approach can provide better stability performance when compared to other ones in the literature

  10. Linear stability analysis in a solid-propellant rocket motor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.M.; Kang, K.T.; Yoon, J.K. [Agency for Defense Development, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1995-10-01

    Combustion instability in solid-propellant rocket motors depends on the balance between acoustic energy gains and losses of the system. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the capability of the program which predicts the standard longitudinal stability using acoustic modes based on linear stability analysis and T-burner test results of propellants. Commercial ANSYS 5.0A program can be used to calculate the acoustic characteristic of a rocket motor. The linear stability prediction was compared with the static firing test results of rocket motors. (author). 11 refs., 17 figs.

  11. Stability Analysis of Fractional-Order Nonlinear Systems with Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stability analysis of fractional-order nonlinear systems with delay is studied. We propose the definition of Mittag-Leffler stability of time-delay system and introduce the fractional Lyapunov direct method by using properties of Mittag-Leffler function and Laplace transform. Then some new sufficient conditions ensuring asymptotical stability of fractional-order nonlinear system with delay are proposed firstly. And the application of Riemann-Liouville fractional-order systems is extended by the fractional comparison principle and the Caputo fractional-order systems. Numerical simulations of an example demonstrate the universality and the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  12. Stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Parzen, Emanuel

    1962-01-01

    Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine

  13. Multivariate stochastic analysis for Monthly hydrological time series at Cuyahoga River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    zhang, L.

    2011-12-01

    Copula has become a very powerful statistic and stochastic methodology in case of the multivariate analysis in Environmental and Water resources Engineering. In recent years, the popular one-parameter Archimedean copulas, e.g. Gumbel-Houggard copula, Cook-Johnson copula, Frank copula, the meta-elliptical copula, e.g. Gaussian Copula, Student-T copula, etc. have been applied in multivariate hydrological analyses, e.g. multivariate rainfall (rainfall intensity, duration and depth), flood (peak discharge, duration and volume), and drought analyses (drought length, mean and minimum SPI values, and drought mean areal extent). Copula has also been applied in the flood frequency analysis at the confluences of river systems by taking into account the dependence among upstream gauge stations rather than by using the hydrological routing technique. In most of the studies above, the annual time series have been considered as stationary signal which the time series have been assumed as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. But in reality, hydrological time series, especially the daily and monthly hydrological time series, cannot be considered as i.i.d. random variables due to the periodicity existed in the data structure. Also, the stationary assumption is also under question due to the Climate Change and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change in the fast years. To this end, it is necessary to revaluate the classic approach for the study of hydrological time series by relaxing the stationary assumption by the use of nonstationary approach. Also as to the study of the dependence structure for the hydrological time series, the assumption of same type of univariate distribution also needs to be relaxed by adopting the copula theory. In this paper, the univariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the nonstationary time series analysis approach. The dependence structure of the multivariate monthly hydrological time series will be

  14. Mathematical analysis and algorithms for efficiently and accurately implementing stochastic simulations of short-term synaptic depression and facilitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D McDonnell

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The release of neurotransmitter vesicles after arrival of a pre-synaptic action potential at cortical synapses is known to be a stochastic process, as is the availability of vesicles for release. These processes are known to also depend on the recent history of action-potential arrivals, and this can be described in terms of time-varying probabilities of vesicle release. Mathematical models of such synaptic dynamics frequently are based only on the mean number of vesicles released by each pre-synaptic action potential, since if it is assumed there are sufficiently many vesicle sites, then variance is small. However, it has been shown recently that variance across sites can be significant for neuron and network dynamics, and this suggests the potential importance of studying short-term plasticity using simulations that do generate trial-to-trial variability. Therefore, in this paper we study several well-known conceptual models for stochastic availability and release. We state explicitly the random variables that these models describe and propose efficient algorithms for accurately implementing stochastic simulations of these random variables in software or hardware. Our results are complemented by mathematical analysis and statement of pseudo-code algorithms.

  15. The propagation of stochastic pixel noise into magnitude and phase values in the Fourier analysis of digital images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holden, J.E.; Halama, J.R.; Hasegawa, B.H.

    1986-01-01

    The use of Fourier analysis in nuclear medicine gated blood ventriculography provides a useful example of the application of Fourier methods to digital medical imaging. In particular, the nuclear medicine experience demonstrates that there is diagnostic significance not only in the pixel averages of temporal Fourier magnitude and phase computed in various image regions, but also in the distributions of the individual pixel values about those averages. However, a region containing pixels that are perfectly synchronous on average would still yield a finite distribution of calculated Fourier coefficients due to the propagation of stochastic pixel noise into the calculated values. The authors have studied this noise component of both the magnitude and phase distributions using phantom studies and computer simulation. In both approaches, several thousand one-pixel 'ventriculograms' were generated, all identical to each other except for stochastic noise. Fourier magnitudes and phases at several frequencies were calculated and histograms generated. A theoretical prediction of the distributions was developed and shown to fit the experimental results well. The authors' formalism can be used to estimate study count requirements or, for fixed study counts, to assess the stochastic noise contribution in the interpretation of measured phase and magnitude distributions. (author)

  16. A stochastic process model for life cycle cost analysis of nuclear power plant systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Weide, J.A.M.; Pandey, M.D.

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents a general stochastic model to analyze the life cycle cost of an engineering system that is affected by minor but repairable failures interrupting the operation and a major failure that would require the replacement or renewal of the failed system. It is commonly observed that the

  17. Asymptotic analysis of a stochastic non-linear nuclear reactor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, M.A.; Sancho, J.M.

    1986-01-01

    The asymptotic behaviour of a stochastic non-linear nuclear reactor modelled by a master equation is analysed in two different limits: the thermodynamic limit and the zero-neutron-source limit. In the first limit a finite steady neutron density is obtained. The second limit predicts the neutron extinction. The interplay between these two limits is studied for different situations. (author)

  18. Deterministic and stochastic analysis of size effects and damage evolution in quasi-brittle materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gutiérrez, M.A.; Borst, R. de

    1999-01-01

    This study presents some recent results on damage evolution in quasi-brittle materials including stochastic imperfections. The material strength is described as a random field and coupled to the response. The most probable configurations of imperfections leading to failure are sought by means of an

  19. An improved parametrization and analysis of the EXP3++ algorithm for stochastic and adversarial bandits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seldin, Yevgeny; Lugosi, Gábor

    2017-01-01

    We present a new strategy for gap estimation in randomized algorithms for multiarmed bandits and combine it with the EXP3++ algorithm of Seldin and Slivkins (2014). In the stochastic regime the strategy reduces dependence of regret on a time horizon from $(ln t)^3$ to $(ln t)^2$ and eliminates...

  20. Joint Bayesian Stochastic Inversion of Well Logs and Seismic Data for Volumetric Uncertainty Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moslem Moradi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Here in, an application of a new seismic inversion algorithm in one of Iran’s oilfields is described. Stochastic (geostatistical seismic inversion, as a complementary method to deterministic inversion, is perceived as contribution combination of geostatistics and seismic inversion algorithm. This method integrates information from different data sources with different scales, as prior information in Bayesian statistics. Data integration leads to a probability density function (named as a posteriori probability that can yield a model of subsurface. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method is used to sample the posterior probability distribution, and the subsurface model characteristics can be extracted by analyzing a set of the samples. In this study, the theory of stochastic seismic inversion in a Bayesian framework was described and applied to infer P-impedance and porosity models. The comparison between the stochastic seismic inversion and the deterministic model based seismic inversion indicates that the stochastic seismic inversion can provide more detailed information of subsurface character. Since multiple realizations are extracted by this method, an estimation of pore volume and uncertainty in the estimation were analyzed.

  1. Stability analysis of linear switching systems with time delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ping; Zhong Shouming; Cui Jinzhong

    2009-01-01

    The issue of stability analysis of linear switching system with discrete and distributed time delays is studied in this paper. An appropriate switching rule is applied to guarantee the stability of the whole switching system. Our results use a Riccati-type Lyapunov functional under a condition on the time delay. So, switching systems with mixed delays are developed. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.

  2. Contributions to fuzzy polynomial techniques for stability analysis and control

    OpenAIRE

    Pitarch Pérez, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    The present thesis employs fuzzy-polynomial control techniques in order to improve the stability analysis and control of nonlinear systems. Initially, it reviews the more extended techniques in the field of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems, such as the more relevant results about polynomial and fuzzy polynomial systems. The basic framework uses fuzzy polynomial models by Taylor series and sum-of-squares techniques (semidefinite programming) in order to obtain stability guarantees...

  3. Stability analysis for cellular neural networks with variable delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Qiang; Wei Xiaopeng; Xu Jin

    2006-01-01

    Some sufficient conditions for the global exponential stability of cellular neural networks with variable delay are obtained by means of a method based on delay differential inequality. The method, which does not make use of Lyapunov functionals, is simple and effective for the stability analysis of neural networks with delay. Some previously established results in the literature are shown to be special cases of the presented result

  4. Prospective national and regional environmental performance: Boundary estimations using a combined data envelopment - stochastic frontier analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaninsky, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    The environmental performance of regions and largest economies of the world - actually, the efficiency of their energy sectors - is estimated for the period 2010-2030 by using forecasted values of main economic indicators. Two essentially different methodologies, data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis, are used to obtain upper and lower boundaries of the environmental efficiency index. Greenhouse gas emission per unit of area is used as a resulting indicator, with GDP, energy consumption, and population forming a background of comparable estimations. The dynamics of the upper and lower boundaries and their average is analyzed. Regions and national economies having low level or negative dynamics of environmental efficiency are determined.

  5. Non linear stability analysis of parallel channels with natural circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Ashish Mani; Singh, Suneet, E-mail: suneet.singh@iitb.ac.in

    2016-12-01

    Highlights: • Nonlinear instabilities in natural circulation loop are studied. • Generalized Hopf points, Sub and Supercritical Hopf bifurcations are identified. • Bogdanov–Taken Point (BT Point) is observed by nonlinear stability analysis. • Effect of parameters on stability of system is studied. - Abstract: Linear stability analysis of two-phase flow in natural circulation loop is quite extensively studied by many researchers in past few years. It can be noted that linear stability analysis is limited to the small perturbations only. It is pointed out that such systems typically undergo Hopf bifurcation. If the Hopf bifurcation is subcritical, then for relatively large perturbation, the system has unstable limit cycles in the (linearly) stable region in the parameter space. Hence, linear stability analysis capturing only infinitesimally small perturbations is not sufficient. In this paper, bifurcation analysis is carried out to capture the non-linear instability of the dynamical system and both subcritical and supercritical bifurcations are observed. The regions in the parameter space for which subcritical and supercritical bifurcations exist are identified. These regions are verified by numerical simulation of the time-dependent, nonlinear ODEs for the selected points in the operating parameter space using MATLAB ODE solver.

  6. Stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of a new system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Kuifei; Yang Qigui

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a new chaotic system is introduced. The system contains special cases as the modified Lorenz system and conjugate Chen system. Some subtle characteristics of stability and Hopf bifurcation of the new chaotic system are thoroughly investigated by rigorous mathematical analysis and symbolic computations. Meanwhile, some numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical analysis are also presented.

  7. Nonlinear Stochastic stability analysis of Wind Turbine Wings by Monte Carlo Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jesper Winther; Iwankiewiczb, R.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2007-01-01

    and inertial contributions. A reduced two-degrees-of-freedom modal expansion is used specifying the modal coordinate of the fundamental blade and edgewise fixed base eigenmodes of the beam. The rotating beam is subjected to harmonic and narrow-banded support point motion from the nacelle displacement...... under narrow-banded excitation, and it is shown that the qualitative behaviour of the strange attractor is very similar for the periodic and almost periodic responses, whereas the strange attractor for the chaotic case loses structure as the excitation becomes narrow-banded. Furthermore......, the characteristic behaviour of the strange attractor is shown to be identifiable by the so-called information dimension. Due to the complexity of the coupled nonlinear structural system all analyses are carried out via Monte Carlo simulations....

  8. Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

    2008-01-01

    In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

  9. Deterministic and stochastic analysis of alternative climate targets under differentiated cooperation regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loulou, Richard; Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzes the feasibility of attaining a variety of climate targets during the 21st century, under alternative cooperation regimes by groups of countries. Five climate targets of increasing severity are analyzed, following the EMF-22 experiment. Each target is attempted under two cooperation regimes, a First Best scenario where all countries fully cooperate from 2012 on, and a Second Best scenario where the World is partitioned into three groups, and each group of countries enters the cooperation at a different date, and implement emission abatement actions in a progressive manner, once in the coalition. The resulting ten combinations are simulated via the ETSAP-TIAM technology based, integrated assessment model. In addition to the 10 separate case analyses, the article proposes a probabilistic treatment of three targets under the First Best scenario, and shows that the three forcing targets may in fact be interpreted as a single target on global temperature change, while assuming that the climate sensitivity C s is uncertain. It is shown that such an interpretation is possible only if the probability distribution of C s is carefully chosen. The analysis of the results shows that the lowest forcing level is unattainable unless immediate coordinated action is undertaken by all countries, and even so only at a high global cost. The middle and the high forcing levels are feasible at affordable global costs, even under the Second Best scenario. Another original contribution of this article is to explain why certain combinations of technological choices are made by the model, and in particular why the climate target clearly supersedes the usually accepted objective of improving energy efficiency. The analysis shows that under some climate targets, it is not optimal to improve energy efficiency, but rather to take advantage of certain technologies that help to reach the climate objective, but that happen to be less energy efficient than even the technologies

  10. Stochastic quantization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klauder, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    The author provides an introductory survey to stochastic quantization in which he outlines this new approach for scalar fields, gauge fields, fermion fields, and condensed matter problems such as electrons in solids and the statistical mechanics of quantum spins. (Auth.)

  11. Stochastic dynamic response analysis of spar-type wind turbines with catenary or taut mooring systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karimirad, Madjid

    2011-03-15

    Floating wind turbines can be the most practical and economical way to extract the vast offshore wind energy resources at deep and intermediate water depths. The Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy is strongly committed to developing offshore wind technology that utilises available renewable energy sources. As the wind is steadier and stronger over the sea than over land, the wind industry recently moved to offshore areas. Analysis of the structural dynamic response of offshore wind turbines subjected to stochastic wave and wind loads is an important aspect of the assessment of their potential for power production and of their structural integrity. Of the concepts that have been proposed for floating wind turbines, spar-types such as the catenary moored spar (CMS) and tension leg spar (TLS) wind turbines seem to be well-suited to the harsh environmental conditions that exist in the North Sea. Hywind and Sway are two examples of such Norwegian concepts; they are based on the CMS and TLS, respectively. Floating wind turbines are sophisticated structures that are subjected to simultaneous wind and wave actions. The coupled nonlinear structural dynamics and motion response equations of these turbines introduce geometrical nonlinearities through the relative motions and velocities. Moreover, the hydrodynamic and aerodynamic loading of this type of structure is nonlinear. A floating wind turbine is a multi body aero-hydro-servo-elastic structural system; for such structures, the coupled nonlinear equations of motion considering nonlinear excitation and damping forces, including all wave- and wind-induced features, should be solved in the time domain. In this thesis, the motion and structural responses for operational and extreme environmental conditions were considered to investigate the performance and the structural integrity of spar-type floating wind turbines. The power production and the effects of aerodynamic and hydrodynamic damping, including wind

  12. Pyrosequencing Based Microbial Community Analysis of Stabilized Mine Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J. E.; Lee, B. T.; Son, A.

    2015-12-01

    Heavy metals leached from exhausted mines have been causing severe environmental problems in nearby soils and groundwater. Environmental mitigation was performed based on the heavy metal stabilization using Calcite and steel slag in Korea. Since the soil stabilization only temporarily immobilizes the contaminants to soil matrix, the potential risk of re-leaching heavy metal still exists. Therefore the follow-up management of stabilized soils and the corresponding evaluation methods are required to avoid the consequent contamination from the stabilized soils. In this study, microbial community analysis using pyrosequencing was performed for assessing the potential leaching of the stabilized soils. As a result of rarefaction curve and Chao1 and Shannon indices, the stabilized soil has shown lower richness and diversity as compared to non-contaminated negative control. At the phyla level, as the degree of contamination increases, most of phyla decreased with only exception of increased proteobacteria. Among proteobacteria, gamma-proteobacteria increased against the heavy metal contamination. At the species level, Methylobacter tundripaludum of gamma-proteobacteria showed the highest relative portion of microbial community, indicating that methanotrophs may play an important role in either solubilization or immobilization of heavy metals in stabilized soils.

  13. Stability Analysis for a Multi-Camera Photogrammetric System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman Habib

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Consumer-grade digital cameras suffer from geometrical instability that may cause problems when used in photogrammetric applications. This paper provides a comprehensive review of this issue of interior orientation parameter variation over time, it explains the common ways used for coping with the issue, and describes the existing methods for performing stability analysis for a single camera. The paper then points out the lack of coverage of stability analysis for multi-camera systems, suggests a modification of the collinearity model to be used for the calibration of an entire photogrammetric system, and proposes three methods for system stability analysis. The proposed methods explore the impact of the changes in interior orientation and relative orientation/mounting parameters on the reconstruction process. Rather than relying on ground truth in real datasets to check the system calibration stability, the proposed methods are simulation-based. Experiment results are shown, where a multi-camera photogrammetric system was calibrated three times, and stability analysis was performed on the system calibration parameters from the three sessions. The proposed simulation-based methods provided results that were compatible with a real-data based approach for evaluating the impact of changes in the system calibration parameters on the three-dimensional reconstruction.

  14. Probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cao, Zijun; Li, Dianqing

    2017-01-01

    This is the first book to revisit geotechnical site characterization from a probabilistic point of view and provide rational tools to probabilistically characterize geotechnical properties and underground stratigraphy using limited information obtained from a specific site. This book not only provides new probabilistic approaches for geotechnical site characterization and slope stability analysis, but also tackles the difficulties in practical implementation of these approaches. In addition, this book also develops efficient Monte Carlo simulation approaches for slope stability analysis and implements these approaches in a commonly available spreadsheet environment. These approaches and the software package are readily available to geotechnical practitioners and alleviate them from reliability computational algorithms. The readers will find useful information for a non-specialist to determine project-specific statistics of geotechnical properties and to perform probabilistic analysis of slope stability.

  15. Static Voltage Stability Analysis by Using SVM and Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Hajian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Voltage stability is an important problem in power system networks. In this paper, in terms of static voltage stability, and application of Neural Networks (NN and Supported Vector Machine (SVM for estimating of voltage stability margin (VSM and predicting of voltage collapse has been investigated. This paper considers voltage stability in power system in two parts. The first part calculates static voltage stability margin by Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN. The advantage of the used method is high accuracy in online detecting the VSM. Whereas the second one, voltage collapse analysis of power system is performed by Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN and SVM. The obtained results in this paper indicate, that time and number of training samples of SVM, are less than NN. In this paper, a new model of training samples for detection system, using the normal distribution load curve at each load feeder, has been used. Voltage stability analysis is estimated by well-know L and VSM indexes. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed methods, IEEE 14 bus grid and the actual network of Yazd Province are used.

  16. Stochastic runaway of dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfirsch, D.; Graeff, P.

    1984-10-01

    One-dimensional, stochastic, dynamical systems are well studied with respect to their stability properties. Less is known for the higher dimensional case. This paper derives sufficient and necessary criteria for the asymptotic divergence of the entropy (runaway) and sufficient ones for the moments of n-dimensional, stochastic, dynamical systems. The crucial implication is the incompressibility of their flow defined by the equations of motion in configuration space. Two possible extensions to compressible flow systems are outlined. (orig.)

  17. Global robust exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Shengyuan; Lam, James; Ho, Daniel W.C.; Zou Yun

    2004-01-01

    This Letter investigates the problem of robust global exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The values of the time-invariant uncertain parameters are assumed to be bounded within given compact sets. An improved condition for the existence of a unique equilibrium point and its global exponential stability of RNNs with known parameters is proposed. Based on this, a sufficient condition for the global robust exponential stability for interval RNNs is obtained. Both of the conditions are expressed in terms of LMIs, which can be checked easily by various recently developed convex optimization algorithms. Examples are provided to demonstrate the reduced conservatism of the proposed exponential stability condition

  18. Stability analysis of embedded nonlinear predictor neural generalized predictive controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesham F. Abdel Ghaffar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Nonlinear Predictor-Neural Generalized Predictive Controller (NGPC is one of the most advanced control techniques that are used with severe nonlinear processes. In this paper, a hybrid solution from NGPC and Internal Model Principle (IMP is implemented to stabilize nonlinear, non-minimum phase, variable dead time processes under high disturbance values over wide range of operation. Also, the superiority of NGPC over linear predictive controllers, like GPC, is proved for severe nonlinear processes over wide range of operation. The necessary conditions required to stabilize NGPC is derived using Lyapunov stability analysis for nonlinear processes. The NGPC stability conditions and improvement in disturbance suppression are verified by both simulation using Duffing’s nonlinear equation and real-time using continuous stirred tank reactor. Up to our knowledge, the paper offers the first hardware embedded Neural GPC which has been utilized to verify NGPC–IMP improvement in realtime.

  19. Stability Analysis of Nonuniform Rectangular Beams Using Homotopy Perturbation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seval Pinarbasi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The design of slender beams, that is, beams with large laterally unsupported lengths, is commonly controlled by stability limit states. Beam buckling, also called “lateral torsional buckling,” is different from column buckling in that a beam not only displaces laterally but also twists about its axis during buckling. The coupling between twist and lateral displacement makes stability analysis of beams more complex than that of columns. For this reason, most of the analytical studies in the literature on beam stability are concentrated on simple cases: uniform beams with ideal boundary conditions and simple loadings. This paper shows that complex beam stability problems, such as lateral torsional buckling of rectangular beams with variable cross-sections, can successfully be solved using homotopy perturbation method (HPM.

  20. Nolinear stability analysis of nuclear reactors : expansion methods for stability domains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Chae Yong

    1992-02-01

    Two constructive methods for estimating asymptotic stability domains of nonlinear reactor models are developed in this study: an improved Chang and Thorp's method based on expansion of a Lyapunov function and a new method based on expansion of any positive definite function. The methods are established on the concept of stability definitions of Lyapunov itself. The first method provides a sequence of stability regions that eventually approaches the exact stability domain, but requires many expansions in order to obtain the entire stability region because the starting Lyapunov function usually corresponds to a small stability region and because most dynamic systems are stiff. The second method (new method) requires only a positive definite function and thus it is easy to come up with a starting region. From a large starting region, the entire stability region is estimated effectively after sufficient iterations. It is particularly useful for stiff systems. The methods are applied to several nonlinear reactor models known in the literature: one-temperature feedback model, two-temperature feedback model, and xenon dynamics model, and the results are compared. A reactor feedback model for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) considering fuel and moderator temperature effects is developed and the nonlinear stability regions are estimated for the various values of design parameters by using the new method. The steady-state properties of the nonlinear reactor system are analyzed via bifurcation theory. The analysis of nonlinear phenomena is carried out for the various forms of reactivity feedback coefficients that are both temperature- (or power-) independent and dependent. If one of two temperature coefficients is positive, unstable limit cycles or multiplicity of the steady-state solutions appear when the other temperature coefficient exceeds a certain critical value. As an example, even though the fuel temperature coefficient is negative, if the moderator temperature