Gas contract portfolio management: a stochastic programming approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haurie, A.; Smeers, Y.; Zaccour, G.

1991-01-01

This paper deals with a stochastic programming model which complements long range market simulation models generating scenarios concerning the evolution of demand and prices for gas in different market segments. Agas company has to negociate contracts with lengths going from one to twenty years. This stochastic model is designed to assess the risk associated with committing the gas production capacity of the company to these market segments. Different approaches are presented to overcome the difficulties associated with the very large size of the resulting optimization problem

Stochastic programming and market equilibrium analysis of microgrids energy management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

2016-01-01

Microgrids facilitate optimum utilization of distributed renewable energy, provides better local energy supply, and reduces transmission loss and greenhouse gas emission. Because the uncertainty in energy demand affects the energy demand and supply system, the aim of this research is to develop a stochastic optimization and its market equilibrium for microgrids in the electricity market. Therefore, a two-stage stochastic programming model for microgrids and the market competition model are derived in this paper. In the stochastic model, energy demand and supply uncertainties are considered. Furthermore, a case study of the stochastic model is conducted to simulate the uncertainties on the INER microgrids in Taiwanese market. The optimal investment of the generators and batteries installation and operating strategies are determined under energy demand and supply uncertainties for the INER microgrids. The results show optimal investment and operating strategies for the current INER microgrids are also determined by the proposed two-stage stochastic model in the market. In addition, trade-off between the battery capacity and microgrids performance is investigated. Battery usage and power trading between the microgrids and main grid systems are the functions of battery capacity. - Highlights: • A two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for microgrids. • Market equilibrium analysis of microgrids is conducted. • A case study of the stochastic model is conducted for INER microgrids.

Dynamic electricity pricing for electric vehicles using stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, João; Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Borges, Nuno; Vale, Zita

2017-01-01

Electric Vehicles (EVs) are an important source of uncertainty, due to their variable demand, departure time and location. In smart grids, the electricity demand can be controlled via Demand Response (DR) programs. Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid seem highly promising methods for EVs control. However, high capital costs remain a barrier to implementation. Meanwhile, incentive and price-based schemes that do not require high level of control can be implemented to influence the EVs' demand. Having effective tools to deal with the increasing level of uncertainty is increasingly important for players, such as energy aggregators. This paper formulates a stochastic model for day-ahead energy resource scheduling, integrated with the dynamic electricity pricing for EVs, to address the challenges brought by the demand and renewable sources uncertainty. The two-stage stochastic programming approach is used to obtain the optimal electricity pricing for EVs. A realistic case study projected for 2030 is presented based on Zaragoza network. The results demonstrate that it is more effective than the deterministic model and that the optimal pricing is preferable. This study indicates that adequate DR schemes like the proposed one are promising to increase the customers' satisfaction in addition to improve the profitability of the energy aggregation business. - Highlights: • A stochastic model for energy scheduling tackling several uncertainty sources. • A two-stage stochastic programming is used to tackle the developed model. • Optimal EV electricity pricing seems to improve the profits. • The propose results suggest to increase the customers' satisfaction.

Multistage Stochastic Programming via Autoregressive Sequences

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kaňková, Vlasta

2007-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 99-110 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/07/1113; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GD402/03/H057 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Economic proceses * Multistage stochastic programming * autoregressive sequences * individual probability constraints Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

Empirical estimates in stochastic programs with probability and second order stochastic dominance constraints

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Omelchenko, Vadym; Kaňková, Vlasta

2015-01-01

Roč. 84, č. 2 (2015), s. 267-281 ISSN 0862-9544 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-14445S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic programming problems * empirical estimates * light and heavy tailed distributions * quantiles Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/omelchenko-0454495.pdf

Convergence of Sample Path Optimal Policies for Stochastic Dynamic Programming

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Fu, Michael C; Jin, Xing

2005-01-01

.... These results have practical implications for Monte Carlo simulation-based solution approaches to stochastic dynamic programming problems where it is impractical to extract the explicit transition...

Using metrics in stability of stochastic programming problems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Houda, Michal

2005-01-01

Roč. 13, č. 1 (2005), s. 128-134 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : stochastic programming * quantitative stability * Wasserstein metrics * Kolmogorov metrics * simulation study Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

Multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with inexact probability distribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamadameen, Abdulqader Othman [Optimization, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia); Zainuddin, Zaitul Marlizawati [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM (Malaysia)

2014-06-19

This study deals with multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertainty probability distribution which are defined as fuzzy assertions by ambiguous experts. The problem formulation has been presented and the two solutions strategies are; the fuzzy transformation via ranking function and the stochastic transformation when α{sup –}. cut technique and linguistic hedges are used in the uncertainty probability distribution. The development of Sen’s method is employed to find a compromise solution, supported by illustrative numerical example.

Bonus algorithm for large scale stochastic nonlinear programming problems

CERN Document Server

Diwekar, Urmila

2015-01-01

This book presents the details of the BONUS algorithm and its real world applications in areas like sensor placement in large scale drinking water networks, sensor placement in advanced power systems, water management in power systems, and capacity expansion of energy systems. A generalized method for stochastic nonlinear programming based on a sampling based approach for uncertainty analysis and statistical reweighting to obtain probability information is demonstrated in this book. Stochastic optimization problems are difficult to solve since they involve dealing with optimization and uncertainty loops. There are two fundamental approaches used to solve such problems. The first being the decomposition techniques and the second method identifies problem specific structures and transforms the problem into a deterministic nonlinear programming problem. These techniques have significant limitations on either the objective function type or the underlying distributions for the uncertain variables. Moreover, these ...

Stochastic optimal control in infinite dimension dynamic programming and HJB equations

CERN Document Server

Fabbri, Giorgio; Święch, Andrzej

2017-01-01

Providing an introduction to stochastic optimal control in infinite dimension, this book gives a complete account of the theory of second-order HJB equations in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces, focusing on its applicability to associated stochastic optimal control problems. It features a general introduction to optimal stochastic control, including basic results (e.g. the dynamic programming principle) with proofs, and provides examples of applications. A complete and up-to-date exposition of the existing theory of viscosity solutions and regular solutions of second-order HJB equations in Hilbert spaces is given, together with an extensive survey of other methods, with a full bibliography. In particular, Chapter 6, written by M. Fuhrman and G. Tessitore, surveys the theory of regular solutions of HJB equations arising in infinite-dimensional stochastic control, via BSDEs. The book is of interest to both pure and applied researchers working in the control theory of stochastic PDEs, and in PDEs in infinite ...

Stochastic Fractional Programming Approach to a Mean and Variance Model of a Transportation Problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Charles

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a stochastic programming model, which considers a ratio of two nonlinear functions and probabilistic constraints. In the former, only expected model has been proposed without caring variability in the model. On the other hand, in the variance model, the variability played a vital role without concerning its counterpart, namely, the expected model. Further, the expected model optimizes the ratio of two linear cost functions where as variance model optimize the ratio of two non-linear functions, that is, the stochastic nature in the denominator and numerator and considering expectation and variability as well leads to a non-linear fractional program. In this paper, a transportation model with stochastic fractional programming (SFP problem approach is proposed, which strikes the balance between previous models available in the literature.

Microgrid Reliability Modeling and Battery Scheduling Using Stochastic Linear Programming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoso, Goncalo; Stadler, Michael; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris; DeForest, Nicholas; Barbosa-Povoa, Ana; Ferrao, Paulo

2013-05-23

This paper describes the introduction of stochastic linear programming into Operations DER-CAM, a tool used to obtain optimal operating schedules for a given microgrid under local economic and environmental conditions. This application follows previous work on optimal scheduling of a lithium-iron-phosphate battery given the output uncertainty of a 1 MW molten carbonate fuel cell. Both are in the Santa Rita Jail microgrid, located in Dublin, California. This fuel cell has proven unreliable, partially justifying the consideration of storage options. Several stochastic DER-CAM runs are executed to compare different scenarios to values obtained by a deterministic approach. Results indicate that using a stochastic approach provides a conservative yet more lucrative battery schedule. Lower expected energy bills result, given fuel cell outages, in potential savings exceeding 6percent.

A stochastic-programming approach to integrated asset and liability ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This increase in complexity has provided an impetus for the investigation into integrated asset- and liability-management frameworks that could realistically address dynamic portfolio allocation in a risk-controlled way. In this paper the authors propose a multi-stage dynamic stochastic-programming model for the integrated ...

An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

2015-02-01

Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

Multiobjective Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Problems with Interval Discrete Random Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. K. Barik

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Most of the real-life decision-making problems have more than one conflicting and incommensurable objective functions. In this paper, we present a multiobjective two-stage stochastic linear programming problem considering some parameters of the linear constraints as interval type discrete random variables with known probability distribution. Randomness of the discrete intervals are considered for the model parameters. Further, the concepts of best optimum and worst optimum solution are analyzed in two-stage stochastic programming. To solve the stated problem, first we remove the randomness of the problem and formulate an equivalent deterministic linear programming model with multiobjective interval coefficients. Then the deterministic multiobjective model is solved using weighting method, where we apply the solution procedure of interval linear programming technique. We obtain the upper and lower bound of the objective function as the best and the worst value, respectively. It highlights the possible risk involved in the decision-making tool. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed solution procedure.

Decomposition and (importance) sampling techniques for multi-stage stochastic linear programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Infanger, G.

1993-11-01

The difficulty of solving large-scale multi-stage stochastic linear programs arises from the sheer number of scenarios associated with numerous stochastic parameters. The number of scenarios grows exponentially with the number of stages and problems get easily out of hand even for very moderate numbers of stochastic parameters per stage. Our method combines dual (Benders) decomposition with Monte Carlo sampling techniques. We employ importance sampling to efficiently obtain accurate estimates of both expected future costs and gradients and right-hand sides of cuts. The method enables us to solve practical large-scale problems with many stages and numerous stochastic parameters per stage. We discuss the theory of sharing and adjusting cuts between different scenarios in a stage. We derive probabilistic lower and upper bounds, where we use importance path sampling for the upper bound estimation. Initial numerical results turned out to be promising.

An Improvement for Fuzzy Stochastic Goal Programming Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shu-Cheng Lin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We examined the solution process for linear programming problems under a fuzzy and random environment to transform fuzzy stochastic goal programming problems into standard linear programming problems. A previous paper that revised the solution process with the lower-side attainment index motivated our work. In this paper, we worked on a revision for both-side attainment index to amend its definition and theorems. Two previous examples were used to examine and demonstrate our improvement over previous results. Our findings not only improve the previous paper with both-side attainment index, but also provide a theoretical extension from lower-side attainment index to the both-side attainment index.

Mortgage Loan Portfolio Optimization Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Clausen, Jens

2007-01-01

We consider the dynamics of the Danish mortgage loan system and propose several models to reflect the choices of a mortgagor as well as his attitude towards risk. The models are formulated as multi stage stochastic integer programs, which are difficult to solve for more than 10 stages. Scenario...

Stochastic goal programming based groundwater remediation management under human-health-risk uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jing; He, Li; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose an integrated optimal groundwater remediation design approach. • The approach can address stochasticity in carcinogenic risks. • Goal programming is used to make the system approaching to ideal operation and remediation effects. • The uncertainty in slope factor is evaluated under different confidence levels. • Optimal strategies are obtained to support remediation design under uncertainty. - Abstract: An optimal design approach for groundwater remediation is developed through incorporating numerical simulation, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis and nonlinear optimization within a general framework. Stochastic analysis and goal programming are introduced into the framework to handle uncertainties in real-world groundwater remediation systems. Carcinogenic risks associated with remediation actions are further evaluated at four confidence levels. The differences between ideal and predicted constraints are minimized by goal programming. The approach is then applied to a contaminated site in western Canada for creating a set of optimal remediation strategies. Results from the case study indicate that factors including environmental standards, health risks and technical requirements mutually affected and restricted themselves. Stochastic uncertainty existed in the entire process of remediation optimization, which should to be taken into consideration in groundwater remediation design

Designing time-of-use program based on stochastic security constrained unit commitment considering reliability index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nikzad, Mehdi; Mozafari, Babak; Bashirvand, Mahdi; Solaymani, Soodabeh; Ranjbar, Ali Mohamad

2012-01-01

Recently in electricity markets, a massive focus has been made on setting up opportunities for participating demand side. Such opportunities, also known as demand response (DR) options, are triggered by either a grid reliability problem or high electricity prices. Two important challenges that market operators are facing are appropriate designing and reasonable pricing of DR options. In this paper, time-of-use program (TOU) as a prevalent time-varying program is modeled linearly based on own and cross elasticity definition. In order to decide on TOU rates, a stochastic model is proposed in which the optimum TOU rates are determined based on grid reliability index set by the operator. Expected Load Not Supplied (ELNS) is used to evaluate reliability of the power system in each hour. The proposed stochastic model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) problem and solved using CPLEX solver. The validity of the method is tested over the IEEE 24-bus test system. In this regard, the impact of the proposed pricing method on system load profile; operational costs and required capacity of up- and down-spinning reserve as well as improvement of load factor is demonstrated. Also the sensitivity of the results to elasticity coefficients is investigated. -- Highlights: ► Time-of-use demand response program is linearly modeled. ► A stochastic model is proposed to determine the optimum TOU rates based on ELNS index set by the operator. ► The model is formulated as a short-term two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem.

Hybrid Differential Dynamic Programming with Stochastic Search

Science.gov (United States)

Aziz, Jonathan; Parker, Jeffrey; Englander, Jacob

2016-01-01

Differential dynamic programming (DDP) has been demonstrated as a viable approach to low-thrust trajectory optimization, namely with the recent success of NASAs Dawn mission. The Dawn trajectory was designed with the DDP-based Static Dynamic Optimal Control algorithm used in the Mystic software. Another recently developed method, Hybrid Differential Dynamic Programming (HDDP) is a variant of the standard DDP formulation that leverages both first-order and second-order state transition matrices in addition to nonlinear programming (NLP) techniques. Areas of improvement over standard DDP include constraint handling, convergence properties, continuous dynamics, and multi-phase capability. DDP is a gradient based method and will converge to a solution nearby an initial guess. In this study, monotonic basin hopping (MBH) is employed as a stochastic search method to overcome this limitation, by augmenting the HDDP algorithm for a wider search of the solution space.

Using linear programming to analyze and optimize stochastic flow lines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helber, Stefan; Schimmelpfeng, Katja; Stolletz, Raik

2011-01-01

This paper presents a linear programming approach to analyze and optimize flow lines with limited buffer capacities and stochastic processing times. The basic idea is to solve a huge but simple linear program that models an entire simulation run of a multi-stage production process in discrete time...... programming and hence allows us to solve buffer allocation problems. We show under which conditions our method works well by comparing its results to exact values for two-machine models and approximate simulation results for longer lines....

Generation Expansion Planning with Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhan, Yiduo; Zheng, Qipeng; Wang, Jianhui

2016-01-01

, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming......Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined...

Stochastic programming problems with generalized integrated chance constraints

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Branda, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 61, č. 8 (2012), s. 949-968 ISSN 0233-1934 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610 Grant - others:SVV(CZ) 261315/2010 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : chance constraints * integrated chance constraints * penalty functions * sample approximations * blending problem Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.707, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/branda-stochastic programming problems with generalized integrated.pdf

The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šmíd, Martin

2009-01-01

Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

A remark on empirical estimates in multistage stochastic programming

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kaňková, Vlasta

2002-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 17 (2002), s. 31-50 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0539; GA ČR GA402/02/1015; GA ČR GA402/01/0034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming * empirical estimates * Markov dependence Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

Stochastic optimization: beyond mathematical programming

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

Stochastic optimization, among which bio-inspired algorithms, is gaining momentum in areas where more classical optimization algorithms fail to deliver satisfactory results, or simply cannot be directly applied. This presentation will introduce baseline stochastic optimization algorithms, and illustrate their efficiency in different domains, from continuous non-convex problems to combinatorial optimization problem, to problems for which a non-parametric formulation can help exploring unforeseen possible solution spaces.

Stochastic programming framework for Lithuanian pension payout modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrius Kabašinskas

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The paper provides a scientific approach to the problem of selecting a pension fund by taking into account some specific characteristics of the Lithuanian Republic (LR pension accumulation system. The decision making model, which can be used to plan a long-term pension accrual of the Lithuanian Republic (LR citizens, in an optimal way is presented. This model focuses on factors that influence the sustainability of the pension system selection under macroeconomic, social and demographic uncertainty. The model is formalized as a single stage stochastic optimization problem where the long-term optimal strategy can be obtained based on the possible scenarios generated for a particular participant. Stochastic programming methods allow including the pension fund rebalancing moment and direction of investment, and taking into account possible changes of personal income, changes of society and the global financial market. The collection of methods used to generate scenario trees was found useful to solve strategic planning problems.

Depandent samples in empirical estimation of stochastic programming problems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kaňková, Vlasta; Houda, Michal

2006-01-01

Roč. 35, 2/3 (2006), s. 271-279 ISSN 1026-597X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294; GA ČR GD402/03/H057; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : stochastic programming * stability * probability metrics * Wasserstein metric * Kolmogorov metric * simulations Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics , Operational Research

A two-stage stochastic programming approach for operating multi-energy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Qing; Fang, Jiakun; Chen, Zhe

2017-01-01

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for joint operating multi-energy systems under uncertainty. Simulation is carried out in a test system to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed approach. The test energy system includes a gas subsystem with a gas...

Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dividends and Stochastic Volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Varga, Katherine Yvonne

2015-01-01

We consider an optimal investment-consumption portfolio optimization model in which an investor receives stochastic dividends. As a first problem, we allow the drift of stock price to be a bounded function. Next, we consider a stochastic volatility model. In each problem, we use the dynamic programming method to derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman…

A two-factor, stochastic programming model of Danish mortgage-backed securities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren S.; Poulsen, Rolf

2004-01-01

-trivial, both in terms of deciding on an initial mortgage, and in terms of managing (rebalancing) it optimally.We propose a two-factor, arbitrage-free interest-rate model, calibrated to observable security prices, and implement on top of it a multi-stage, stochastic optimization program with the purpose...

Stochastic Control of Energy Efficient Buildings: A Semidefinite Programming Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Xiao [ORNL; Dong, Jin [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Nutaro, James J [ORNL; Kuruganti, Teja [ORNL

2015-01-01

The key goal in energy efficient buildings is to reduce energy consumption of Heating, Ventilation, and Air- Conditioning (HVAC) systems while maintaining a comfortable temperature and humidity in the building. This paper proposes a novel stochastic control approach for achieving joint performance and power control of HVAC. We employ a constrained Stochastic Linear Quadratic Control (cSLQC) by minimizing a quadratic cost function with a disturbance assumed to be Gaussian. The problem is formulated to minimize the expected cost subject to a linear constraint and a probabilistic constraint. By using cSLQC, the problem is reduced to a semidefinite optimization problem, where the optimal control can be computed efficiently by Semidefinite programming (SDP). Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and power efficiency by utilizing the proposed control approach.

Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

2008-01-01

-term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected......Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short...

Multistage Stochastic Programming and its Applications in Energy Systems Modeling and Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Golari, Mehdi

Electric energy constitutes one of the most crucial elements to almost every aspect of life of people. The modern electric power systems face several challenges such as efficiency, economics, sustainability, and reliability. Increase in electrical energy demand, distributed generations, integration of uncertain renewable energy resources, and demand side management are among the main underlying reasons of such growing complexity. Additionally, the elements of power systems are often vulnerable to failures because of many reasons, such as system limits, weak conditions, unexpected events, hidden failures, human errors, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters. One common factor complicating the operation of electrical power systems is the underlying uncertainties from the demands, supplies and failures of system components. Stochastic programming provides a mathematical framework for decision making under uncertainty. It enables a decision maker to incorporate some knowledge of the intrinsic uncertainty into the decision making process. In this dissertation, we focus on application of two-stage and multistage stochastic programming approaches to electric energy systems modeling and optimization. Particularly, we develop models and algorithms addressing the sustainability and reliability issues in power systems. First, we consider how to improve the reliability of power systems under severe failures or contingencies prone to cascading blackouts by so called islanding operations. We present a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer model to find optimal islanding operations as a powerful preventive action against cascading failures in case of extreme contingencies. Further, we study the properties of this problem and propose efficient solution methods to solve this problem for large-scale power systems. We present the numerical results showing the effectiveness of the model and investigate the performance of the solution methods. Next, we address the sustainability issue

A Regularization SAA Scheme for a Stochastic Mathematical Program with Complementarity Constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-xin Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To reflect uncertain data in practical problems, stochastic versions of the mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC have drawn much attention in the recent literature. Our concern is the detailed analysis of convergence properties of a regularization sample average approximation (SAA method for solving a stochastic mathematical program with complementarity constraints (SMPCC. The analysis of this regularization method is carried out in three steps: First, the almost sure convergence of optimal solutions of the regularized SAA problem to that of the true problem is established by the notion of epiconvergence in variational analysis. Second, under MPCC-MFCQ, which is weaker than MPCC-LICQ, we show that any accumulation point of Karash-Kuhn-Tucker points of the regularized SAA problem is almost surely a kind of stationary point of SMPCC as the sample size tends to infinity. Finally, some numerical results are reported to show the efficiency of the method proposed.

Evaluation of Electric Power Procurement Strategies by Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Saisho, Yuichi; Hayashi, Taketo; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

In deregulated electricity markets, the role of a distribution company is to purchase electricity from the wholesale electricity market at randomly fluctuating prices and to provide it to its customers at a given fixed price. Therefore the company has to take risk stemming from the uncertainties of electricity prices and/or demand fluctuation instead of the customers. The way to avoid the risk is to make a bilateral contact with generating companies or install its own power generation facility. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electric power procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing a mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming and additionally considering the characteristics of the start-up cost of electric power generation facility to evaluate strategies of combination of the bilateral contract and power auto-generation with its own facility for procuring electric power in deregulated electricity market. In the beginning we proposed two approaches to solve the stochastic dynamic programming, and they are a Monte Carlo simulation method and a finite difference method to derive the solution of a partial differential equation of the total procurement cost of electric power. Finally we discussed the influences of the price uncertainty on optimal strategies of power procurement.

An Interval-Parameter Fuzzy Linear Programming with Stochastic Vertices Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Han

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An interval-parameter fuzzy linear programming with stochastic vertices (IFLPSV method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty by coupling interval-parameter fuzzy linear programming (IFLP with stochastic programming (SP. As an extension of existing interval parameter fuzzy linear programming, the developed IFLPSV approach has advantages in dealing with dual uncertainty optimization problems, which uncertainty presents as interval parameter with stochastic vertices in both of the objective functions and constraints. The developed IFLPSV method improves upon the IFLP method by allowing dual uncertainty parameters to be incorporated into the optimization processes. A hybrid intelligent algorithm based on genetic algorithm and artificial neural network is used to solve the developed model. The developed method is then applied to water resources allocation in Beijing city of China in 2020, where water resources shortage is a challenging issue. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained, which are helpful and useful for decision makers. Although the amount of water supply from Guanting and Miyun reservoirs is declining with rainfall reduction, water supply from the South-to-North Water Transfer project will have important impact on water supply structure of Beijing city, particularly in dry year and extraordinary dry year.

An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming for residential micro-grid management-based on random demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, L.; Niu, D.X.; Huang, G.H.

2014-01-01

In this paper a stochastic robust optimization problem of residential micro-grid energy management is presented. Combined cooling, heating and electricity technology (CCHP) is introduced to satisfy various energy demands. Two-stage programming is utilized to find the optimal installed capacity investment and operation control of CCHP (combined cooling heating and power). Moreover, interval programming and robust stochastic optimization methods are exploited to gain interval robust solutions under different robustness levels which are feasible for uncertain data. The obtained results can help micro-grid managers minimizing the investment and operation cost with lower system failure risk when facing fluctuant energy market and uncertain technology parameters. The different robustness levels reflect the risk preference of micro-grid manager. The proposed approach is applied to residential area energy management in North China. Detailed computational results under different robustness level are presented and analyzed for providing investment decision and operation strategies. - Highlights: • An inexact two-stage stochastic robust programming model for CCHP management. • The energy market and technical parameters uncertainties were considered. • Investment decision, operation cost, and system safety were analyzed. • Uncertainties expressed as discrete intervals and probability distributions

Dynamic Programming and Error Estimates for Stochastic Control Problems with Maximum Cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokanowski, Olivier; Picarelli, Athena; Zidani, Hasnaa

2015-01-01

This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach

Dynamic Programming and Error Estimates for Stochastic Control Problems with Maximum Cost

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bokanowski, Olivier, E-mail: boka@math.jussieu.fr [Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, Université Paris-Diderot (Paris 7) UFR de Mathématiques - Bât. Sophie Germain (France); Picarelli, Athena, E-mail: athena.picarelli@inria.fr [Projet Commands, INRIA Saclay & ENSTA ParisTech (France); Zidani, Hasnaa, E-mail: hasnaa.zidani@ensta.fr [Unité de Mathématiques appliquées (UMA), ENSTA ParisTech (France)

2015-02-15

This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach.

Stochastic programming the state of the art in honor of George B. Dantzig

CERN Document Server

2011-01-01

From the Preface… The preparation of this book started in 2004, when George B. Dantzig and I, following a long-standing invitation by Fred Hillier to contribute a volume to his International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, decided finally to go ahead with editing a volume on stochastic programming. The field of stochastic programming (also referred to as optimization under uncertainty or planning under uncertainty) had advanced significantly in the last two decades, both theoretically and in practice. George Dantzig and I felt that it would be valuable to showcase some of these advances and to present what one might call the state-of- the-art of the field to a broader audience. We invited researchers whom we considered to be leading experts in various specialties of the field, including a few representatives of promising developments in the making, to write a chapter for the volume. Unfortunately, to the great loss of all of us, George Dantzig passed away on May 13, 2005. Encouraged by...

Stochastic thermodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Eichhorn, Ralf; Aurell, Erik

2014-04-01

theory for small deviations from equilibrium, in which a general framework is constructed from the analysis of non-equilibrium states close to equilibrium. In a next step, Prigogine and others developed linear irreversible thermodynamics, which establishes relations between transport coefficients and entropy production on a phenomenological level in terms of thermodynamic forces and fluxes. However, beyond the realm of linear response no general theoretical results were available for quite a long time. This situation has changed drastically over the last 20 years with the development of stochastic thermodynamics, revealing that the range of validity of thermodynamic statements can indeed be extended deep into the non-equilibrium regime. Early developments in that direction trace back to the observations of symmetry relations between the probabilities for entropy production and entropy annihilation in non-equilibrium steady states [5-8] (nowadays categorized in the class of so-called detailed fluctuation theorems), and the derivations of the Bochkov-Kuzovlev [9, 10] and Jarzynski relations [11] (which are now classified as so-called integral fluctuation theorems). Apart from its fundamental theoretical interest, the developments in stochastic thermodynamics have experienced an additional boost from the recent experimental progress in fabricating, manipulating, controlling and observing systems on the micro- and nano-scale. These advances are not only of formidable use for probing and monitoring biological processes on the cellular, sub-cellular and molecular level, but even include the realization of a microscopic thermodynamic heat engine [12] or the experimental verification of Landauer's principle in a colloidal system [13]. The scientific program Stochastic Thermodynamics held between 4 and 15 March 2013, and hosted by The Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (Nordita), was attended by more than 50 scientists from the Nordic countries and elsewhere, amongst them

Solving stochastic programs with integer recourse by enumeration : a framework using Gröbner basis reductions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schultz, R.; Stougie, L.; Vlerk, van der M.H.

1998-01-01

In this paper we present a framework for solving stochastic programs with complete integer recourse and discretely distributed right-hand side vector, using Gröbner basis methods from computational algebra to solve the numerous second-stage integer programs. Using structural properties of the

Stochastic models, estimation, and control

CERN Document Server

Maybeck, Peter S

1982-01-01

This volume builds upon the foundations set in Volumes 1 and 2. Chapter 13 introduces the basic concepts of stochastic control and dynamic programming as the fundamental means of synthesizing optimal stochastic control laws.

K-Minimax Stochastic Programming Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Nedeva, C.

2007-10-01

The purpose of this paper is a discussion of a numerical procedure based on the simplex method for stochastic optimization problems with partially known distribution functions. The convergence of this procedure is proved by the condition on dual problems.

An inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Zhenghui; Wang, Han; Lu, Wentao; Guo, Huaicheng; Li, Wei

2017-12-01

Electric power system involves different fields and disciplines which addressed the economic system, energy system, and environment system. Inner uncertainty of this compound system would be an inevitable problem. Therefore, an inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming (IMFSP) was developed for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality. A model which concluded interval-parameter programming, multistage stochastic programming, and fuzzy probability distribution was built to reflect the uncertain information and dynamic variation in the case study, and the scenarios under different credibility degrees were considered. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions were allowed to be taken dynamically in accordance with the pre-regulated policies and the uncertainties in reality. The results suggest that the methodology is applicable to handle the uncertainty of regional electric power management systems and help the decision makers to establish an effective development plan.

A primal-dual decomposition based interior point approach to two-stage stochastic linear programming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.B. Berkelaar (Arjan); C.L. Dert (Cees); K.P.B. Oldenkamp; S. Zhang (Shuzhong)

1999-01-01

textabstractDecision making under uncertainty is a challenge faced by many decision makers. Stochastic programming is a major tool developed to deal with optimization with uncertainties that has found applications in, e.g. finance, such as asset-liability and bond-portfolio management.

Can Household Benefit from Stochastic Programming Models?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Madsen, Claus A.; Poulsen, Rolf

2014-01-01

The Danish mortgage market is large and sophisticated. However, most Danish mortgage banks advise private home-owners based on simple, if sensible, rules of thumb. In recent years a number of papers (from Nielsen and Poulsen in J Econ Dyn Control 28:1267–1289, 2004 over Rasmussen and Zenios in J...... Risk 10:1–18, 2007 to Pedersen et al. in Ann Oper Res, 2013) have suggested a model-based, stochastic programming approach to mortgage choice. This paper gives an empirical comparison of performance over the period 2000–2010 of the rules of thumb to the model-based strategies. While the rules of thumb.......3–0.9 %-points (depending on the borrower’s level of conservatism) compared to the rules of thumb without increasing the risk. The answer to the question in the title is thus affirmative....

A Stochastic Programming Approach for a Multi-Site Supply Chain Planning in Textile and Apparel Industry under Demand Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Houssem Felfel

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, a new stochastic model is proposed to deal with a multi-product, multi-period, multi-stage, multi-site production and transportation supply chain planning problem under demand uncertainty. A two-stage stochastic linear programming approach is used to maximize the expected profit. Decisions such as the production amount, the inventory level of finished and semi-finished product, the amount of backorder and the quantity of products to be transported between upstream and downstream plants in each period are considered. The robustness of production supply chain plan is then evaluated using statistical and risk measures. A case study from a real textile and apparel industry is shown in order to compare the performances of the proposed stochastic programming model and the deterministic model.

Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yun-Hsun; Wu, Jung-Hua; Hsu, Yu-Ju

2016-01-01

Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results. - Highlights: • A multi-region, two-stage stochastic programming model has been developed. • The decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are integrated into the framework. • Taiwan's electricity sector is used to illustrate the applicability of the model. • The results under deterministic and stochastic cases are shown for comparison. • Optimal portfolios of regional generation technologies can be identified.

Generation Expansion Planning With Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhan, Yiduo; Zheng, Qipeng P.; Wang, Jianhui; Pinson, Pierre

2017-07-01

Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets' planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage decision-dependent stochastic optimization model for long-term large-scale generation expansion planning, where large amounts of wind power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.

An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie, Y.L.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Li, Y.F.

2010-01-01

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

Stochastic Feedforward Control Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Halyo, Nesim

1990-01-01

Class of commanded trajectories modeled as stochastic process. Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) research and development program conducted by NASA Langley Research Center aimed at developing capabilities for increases in capacities of airports, safe and accurate flight in adverse weather conditions including shear, winds, avoidance of wake vortexes, and reduced consumption of fuel. Advances in techniques for design of modern controls and increased capabilities of digital flight computers coupled with accurate guidance information from Microwave Landing System (MLS). Stochastic feedforward control technique developed within context of ATOPS program.

A multi-stage stochastic program for supply chain network redesign problem with price-dependent uncertain demands

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan; Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil

2018-01-01

In this paper, we address a multi-period supply chain network redesign problem in which customer zones have price-dependent stochastic demand for multiple products. A novel multi-stage stochastic program is proposed to simultaneously make tactical decisions including products' prices and strategic...... redesign decisions. Existing uncertainty in potential demands of customer zones is modeled through a finite set of scenarios, described in the form of a scenario tree. The scenarios are generated using a Latin Hypercube Sampling method and then a forward scenario construction technique is employed...

Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Xiaodong, E-mail: xiaodong.zhang@beg.utexas.edu [Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78713 (United States); Huang, Gordon [Institute of Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

2013-02-15

Highlights: ► A dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming model is developed. ► Greenhouse gas emission control is considered. ► Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared. ► Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels are obtained. ► Tradeoffs between economics and environment are reflected. -- Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help

Chemotherapy appointment scheduling under uncertainty using mean-risk stochastic integer programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarado, Michelle; Ntaimo, Lewis

2018-03-01

Oncology clinics are often burdened with scheduling large volumes of cancer patients for chemotherapy treatments under limited resources such as the number of nurses and chairs. These cancer patients require a series of appointments over several weeks or months and the timing of these appointments is critical to the treatment's effectiveness. Additionally, the appointment duration, the acuity levels of each appointment, and the availability of clinic nurses are uncertain. The timing constraints, stochastic parameters, rising treatment costs, and increased demand of outpatient oncology clinic services motivate the need for efficient appointment schedules and clinic operations. In this paper, we develop three mean-risk stochastic integer programming (SIP) models, referred to as SIP-CHEMO, for the problem of scheduling individual chemotherapy patient appointments and resources. These mean-risk models are presented and an algorithm is devised to improve computational speed. Computational results were conducted using a simulation model and results indicate that the risk-averse SIP-CHEMO model with the expected excess mean-risk measure can decrease patient waiting times and nurse overtime when compared to deterministic scheduling algorithms by 42 % and 27 %, respectively.

Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming to Support Water Resources Management in the Ziya River Basin, China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Claus; Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Liu, Suxia

2015-01-01

of stochastic dynamic programming, to optimize water resources management in the Ziya River basin. Natural runoff from the upper basin was estimated with a rainfall-runoff model autocalibrated using in situ measured discharge. The runoff serial correlation was described by a Markov chain and used as input...

SLFP: a stochastic linear fractional programming approach for sustainable waste management.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, H; Huang, G H

2011-12-01

A stochastic linear fractional programming (SLFP) approach is developed for supporting sustainable municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The SLFP method can solve ratio optimization problems associated with random information, where chance-constrained programming is integrated into a linear fractional programming framework. It has advantages in: (1) comparing objectives of two aspects, (2) reflecting system efficiency, (3) dealing with uncertainty expressed as probability distributions, and (4) providing optimal-ratio solutions under different system-reliability conditions. The method is applied to a case study of waste flow allocation within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. The obtained solutions are useful for identifying sustainable MSW management schemes with maximized system efficiency under various constraint-violation risks. The results indicate that SLFP can support in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, system cost and system-failure risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal design of distributed energy resource systems based on two-stage stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Yun; Zhang, Shijie; Xiao, Yunhan

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A two-stage stochastic programming model is built to design DER systems under uncertainties. • Uncertain energy demands have a significant effect on the optimal design. • Uncertain energy prices and renewable energy intensity have little effect on the optimal design. • The economy is overestimated if the system is designed without considering the uncertainties. • The uncertainty in energy prices has the significant and greatest effect on the economy. - Abstract: Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal design of distributed energy resource (DER) systems. The expected energy, economic, and environmental benefits may not be achieved and a deficit in energy supply may occur if the uncertainties are not handled properly. This study focuses on the optimal design of DER systems with consideration of the uncertainties. A two-stage stochastic programming model is built in consideration of the discreteness of equipment capacities, equipment partial load operation and output bounds as well as of the influence of ambient temperature on gas turbine performance. The stochastic model is then transformed into its deterministic equivalent and solved. For an illustrative example, the model is applied to a hospital in Lianyungang, China. Comparative studies are performed to evaluate the effect of the uncertainties in load demands, energy prices, and renewable energy intensity separately and simultaneously on the system’s economy and optimal design. Results show that the uncertainties in load demands have a significant effect on the optimal system design, whereas the uncertainties in energy prices and renewable energy intensity have almost no effect. Results regarding economy show that it is obviously overestimated if the system is designed without considering the uncertainties.

Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

Yield curve event tree construction for multi stage stochastic programming models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Poulsen, Rolf

Dynamic stochastic programming (DSP) provides an intuitive framework for modelling of financial portfolio choice problems where market frictions are present and dynamic re--balancing has a significant effect on initial decisions. The application of these models in practice, however, is limited....... Indeed defining a universal and tractable framework for fully ``appropriate'' event trees is in our opinion an impossible task. A problem specific approach to designing such event trees is the way ahead. In this paper we propose a number of desirable properties which should be present in an event tree...

An efficient scenario-based stochastic programming framework for multi-objective optimal micro-grid operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niknam, Taher; Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul; Narimani, Mohammad Rasoul

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management. ► Consider uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of output power of wind and photovoltaic units. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of market price. ► Present an improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization. -- Abstract: This paper proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management with the goal of cost and emission minimization. In this model, the uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand, available output power of wind and photovoltaic units and market price are modeled by a scenario-based stochastic programming. In the presented method, scenarios are generated by a roulette wheel mechanism based on probability distribution functions of the input random variables. Through this method, the inherent stochastic nature of the proposed problem is released and the problem is decomposed into a deterministic problem. An improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization is implemented to yield the best expected Pareto optimal front. In the proposed stochastic optimization method, a novel self adaptive probabilistic modification strategy is offered to improve the performance of the presented algorithm. Also, a set of non-dominated solutions are stored in a repository during the simulation process. Meanwhile, the size of the repository is controlled by usage of a fuzzy-based clustering technique. The best expected compromise solution stored in the repository is selected via the niching mechanism in a way that solutions are encouraged to seek the lesser explored regions. The proposed framework is applied in a typical grid-connected micro grid in order to verify its efficiency and feasibility.

AESS: Accelerated Exact Stochastic Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Jenkins, David D.; Peterson, Gregory D.

2011-12-01

The Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) developed by Gillespie provides a powerful mechanism for exploring the behavior of chemical systems with small species populations or with important noise contributions. Gene circuit simulations for systems biology commonly employ the SSA method, as do ecological applications. This algorithm tends to be computationally expensive, so researchers seek an efficient implementation of SSA. In this program package, the Accelerated Exact Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (AESS) contains optimized implementations of Gillespie's SSA that improve the performance of individual simulation runs or ensembles of simulations used for sweeping parameters or to provide statistically significant results. Program summaryProgram title: AESS Catalogue identifier: AEJW_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJW_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: University of Tennessee copyright agreement No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 10 861 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 394 631 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C for processors, CUDA for NVIDIA GPUs Computer: Developed and tested on various x86 computers and NVIDIA C1060 Tesla and GTX 480 Fermi GPUs. The system targets x86 workstations, optionally with multicore processors or NVIDIA GPUs as accelerators. Operating system: Tested under Ubuntu Linux OS and CentOS 5.5 Linux OS Classification: 3, 16.12 Nature of problem: Simulation of chemical systems, particularly with low species populations, can be accurately performed using Gillespie's method of stochastic simulation. Numerous variations on the original stochastic simulation algorithm have been developed, including approaches that produce results with statistics that exactly match the chemical master equation (CME) as well as other approaches that approximate the CME. Solution

A stochastic self-scheduling program for compressed air energy storage (CAES) of renewable energy sources (RESs) based on a demand response mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghalelou, Afshin Najafi; Fakhri, Alireza Pashaei; Nojavan, Sayyad; Majidi, Majid; Hatami, Hojat

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Optimal stochastic energy management of renewable energy sources (RESs) is proposed. • The compressed air energy storage (CAES) besides RESs is used in the presence of DRP. • Determination charge and discharge of CAES in order to reduce the expected operation cost. • Moreover, demand response program (DRP) is proposed to minimize the operation cost. • The uncertainty modeling of input data are considered in the proposed stochastic framework. - Abstract: In this paper, a stochastic self-scheduling of renewable energy sources (RESs) considering compressed air energy storage (CAES) in the presence of a demand response program (DRP) is proposed. RESs include wind turbine (WT) and photovoltaic (PV) system. Other energy sources are thermal units and CAES. The time-of-use (TOU) rate of DRP is considered in this paper. This DRP shifts the percentage of load from the expensive period to the cheap one in order to flatten the load curve and minimize the operation cost, consequently. The proposed objective function includes minimizing the operation costs of thermal unit and CAES, considering technical and physical constraints. The proposed model is formulated as mixed integer linear programming (MILP) and it is been solved using General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) optimization package. Furthermore, CAES and DRP are incorporated in the stochastic self-scheduling problem by a decision maker to reduce the expected operation cost. Meanwhile, the uncertainty models of market price, load, wind speed, temperature and irradiance are considered in the formulation. Finally, to assess the effects of DRP and CAES on self-scheduling problem, four case studies are utilized, and significant results were obtained, which indicate the validity of the proposed stochastic program.

Risk averse optimal operation of a virtual power plant using two stage stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tajeddini, Mohammad Amin; Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan; Soroudi, Alireza

2014-01-01

VPP (Virtual Power Plant) is defined as a cluster of energy conversion/storage units which are centrally operated in order to improve the technical and economic performance. This paper addresses the optimal operation of a VPP considering the risk factors affecting its daily operation profits. The optimal operation is modelled in both day ahead and balancing markets as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming in order to maximize a GenCo (generation companies) expected profit. Furthermore, the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is used as a risk measure technique in order to control the risk of low profit scenarios. The uncertain parameters, including the PV power output, wind power output and day-ahead market prices are modelled through scenarios. The proposed model is successfully applied to a real case study to show its applicability and the results are presented and thoroughly discussed. - Highlights: • Virtual power plant modelling considering a set of energy generating and conversion units. • Uncertainty modelling using two stage stochastic programming technique. • Risk modelling using conditional value at risk. • Flexible operation of renewable energy resources. • Electricity price uncertainty in day ahead energy markets

Mean-Variance stochastic goal programming for sustainable mutual funds' portfolio selection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

García-Bernabeu, Ana

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Mean-Variance Stochastic Goal Programming models (MV-SGP provide satisficing investment solutions in uncertain contexts. In this work, an MV-SGP model is proposed for portfolio selection which includes goals with regards to traditional and sustainable assets. The proposed approach is based on a two-step procedure. In the first step, sustainability and/or financial screens are applied to a set of assets (mutual funds previously evaluated with TOPSIS to determine the opportunity set. In a second step, satisficing portfolios of assets are obtained using a Goal Programming approach. Two different goals are considered. The first goal reflects only the purely financial side of the target while the second goal is referred to the sustainable side. Aversion to Risk Absolute (ARA coefficients are estimated and incorporated in our investment decision making approach using two different approaches.

An effective streamflow process model for optimal reservoir operation using stochastic dual dynamic programming

OpenAIRE

Raso , L.; Malaterre , P.O.; Bader , J.C.

2017-01-01

International audience; This article presents an innovative streamflow process model for use in reservoir operational rule design in stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP). Model features, which can be applied independently, are (1) a multiplicative process model for the forward phase and its linearized version for the backward phase; and (2) a nonuniform time-step length that is inversely proportional to seasonal variability. The advantages are (1) guaranteeing positive streamflow values...

The sequence relay selection strategy based on stochastic dynamic programming

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Rui; Chen, Xihao; Huang, Yangchao

2017-07-01

Relay-assisted (RA) network with relay node selection is a kind of effective method to improve the channel capacity and convergence performance. However, most of the existing researches about the relay selection did not consider the statically channel state information and the selection cost. This shortage limited the performance and application of RA network in practical scenarios. In order to overcome this drawback, a sequence relay selection strategy (SRSS) was proposed. And the performance upper bound of SRSS was also analyzed in this paper. Furthermore, in order to make SRSS more practical, a novel threshold determination algorithm based on the stochastic dynamic program (SDP) was given to work with SRSS. Numerical results are also presented to exhibit the performance of SRSS with SDP.

Oriented stochastic data envelopment models: ranking comparison to stochastic frontier approach

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Brázdik, František

-, č. 271 (2005), s. 1-46 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : stochastic data envelopment analysis * linear programming * rice farm Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp271.pdf

A novel two-stage stochastic programming model for uncertainty characterization in short-term optimal strategy for a distribution company

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmadi, Abdollah; Charwand, Mansour; Siano, Pierluigi; Nezhad, Ali Esmaeel; Sarno, Debora; Gitizadeh, Mohsen; Raeisi, Fatima

2016-01-01

In order to supply the demands of the end users in a competitive market, a distribution company purchases energy from the wholesale market while other options would be in access in the case of possessing distributed generation units and interruptible loads. In this regard, this study presents a two-stage stochastic programming model for a distribution company energy acquisition market model to manage the involvement of different electric energy resources characterized by uncertainties with the minimum cost. In particular, the distribution company operations planning over a day-ahead horizon is modeled as a stochastic mathematical optimization, with the objective of minimizing costs. By this, distribution company decisions on grid purchase, owned distributed generation units and interruptible load scheduling are determined. Then, these decisions are considered as boundary constraints to a second step, which deals with distribution company's operations in the hour-ahead market with the objective of minimizing the short-term cost. The uncertainties in spot market prices and wind speed are modeled by means of probability distribution functions of their forecast errors and the roulette wheel mechanism and lattice Monte Carlo simulation are used to generate scenarios. Numerical results show the capability of the proposed method. - Highlights: • Proposing a new a stochastic-based two-stage operations framework in retail competitive markets. • Proposing a Mixed Integer Non-Linear stochastic programming. • Employing roulette wheel mechanism and Lattice Monte Carlo Simulation.

Sampling strategies and stopping criteria for stochastic dual dynamic programming: a case study in long-term hydrothermal scheduling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homem-de-Mello, Tito [University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Chicago, IL (United States); Matos, Vitor L. de; Finardi, Erlon C. [Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, LabPlan - Laboratorio de Planejamento de Sistemas de Energia Eletrica, Florianopolis (Brazil)

2011-03-15

The long-term hydrothermal scheduling is one of the most important problems to be solved in the power systems area. This problem aims to obtain an optimal policy, under water (energy) resources uncertainty, for hydro and thermal plants over a multi-annual planning horizon. It is natural to model the problem as a multi-stage stochastic program, a class of models for which algorithms have been developed. The original stochastic process is represented by a finite scenario tree and, because of the large number of stages, a sampling-based method such as the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm is required. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. Firstly, we study the application of two alternative sampling strategies to the standard Monte Carlo - namely, Latin hypercube sampling and randomized quasi-Monte Carlo - for the generation of scenario trees, as well as for the sampling of scenarios that is part of the SDDP algorithm. Secondly, we discuss the formulation of stopping criteria for the optimization algorithm in terms of statistical hypothesis tests, which allows us to propose an alternative criterion that is more robust than that originally proposed for the SDDP. We test these ideas on a problem associated with the whole Brazilian power system, with a three-year planning horizon. (orig.)

Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sladký, Karel

2012-01-01

Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf

Combined Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Receding Horizon Control Strategy for Microgrid Energy Management Considering Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongwen Li

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Microgrids (MGs are presented as a cornerstone of smart grids. With the potential to integrate intermittent renewable energy sources (RES in a flexible and environmental way, the MG concept has gained even more attention. Due to the randomness of RES, load, and electricity price in MG, the forecast errors of MGs will affect the performance of the power scheduling and the operating cost of an MG. In this paper, a combined stochastic programming and receding horizon control (SPRHC strategy is proposed for microgrid energy management under uncertainty, which combines the advantages of two-stage stochastic programming (SP and receding horizon control (RHC strategy. With an SP strategy, a scheduling plan can be derived that minimizes the risk of uncertainty by involving the uncertainty of MG in the optimization model. With an RHC strategy, the uncertainty within the MG can be further compensated through a feedback mechanism with the lately updated forecast information. In our approach, a proper strategy is also proposed to maintain the SP model as a mixed integer linear constrained quadratic programming (MILCQP problem, which is solvable without resorting to any heuristics algorithms. The results of numerical experiments explicitly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed strategy for both island and grid-connected operating modes of an MG.

Relationship between Maximum Principle and Dynamic Programming for Stochastic Recursive Optimal Control Problems and Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingtao Shi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the relationship between maximum principle and dynamic programming for stochastic recursive optimal control problems. Under certain differentiability conditions, relations among the adjoint processes, the generalized Hamiltonian function, and the value function are given. A linear quadratic recursive utility portfolio optimization problem in the financial engineering is discussed as an explicitly illustrated example of the main result.

A chance-constrained stochastic approach to intermodal container routing problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yi; Liu, Ronghui; Zhang, Xi; Whiteing, Anthony

2018-01-01

We consider a container routing problem with stochastic time variables in a sea-rail intermodal transportation system. The problem is formulated as a binary integer chance-constrained programming model including stochastic travel times and stochastic transfer time, with the objective of minimising the expected total cost. Two chance constraints are proposed to ensure that the container service satisfies ship fulfilment and cargo on-time delivery with pre-specified probabilities. A hybrid heuristic algorithm is employed to solve the binary integer chance-constrained programming model. Two case studies are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model and to analyse the impact of stochastic variables and chance-constraints on the optimal solution and total cost.

Trip-oriented stochastic optimal energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric bus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Yongchang; Zhao, Yue; Wang, Qinpu; Zhang, Yuanbo; Xia, Huaicheng

2016-01-01

A trip-oriented stochastic optimal energy management strategy for plug-in hybrid electric bus is presented in this paper, which includes the offline stochastic dynamic programming part and the online implementation part performed by equivalent consumption minimization strategy. In the offline part, historical driving cycles of the fixed route are divided into segments according to the position of bus stops, and then a segment-based stochastic driving condition model based on Markov chain is built. With the segment-based stochastic model obtained, the control set for real-time implemented equivalent consumption minimization strategy can be achieved by solving the offline stochastic dynamic programming problem. Results of stochastic dynamic programming are converted into a 3-dimensional lookup table of parameters for online implemented equivalent consumption minimization strategy. The proposed strategy is verified by both simulation and hardware-in-loop test of real-world driving cycle on an urban bus route. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms both the well-tuned equivalent consumption minimization strategy and the rule-based strategy in terms of fuel economy, and even proved to be close to the optimal result obtained by dynamic programming. Furthermore, the practical application potential of the proposed control method was proved by hardware-in-loop test. - Highlights: • A stochastic problem was formed based on a stochastic segment-based driving condition model. • Offline stochastic dynamic programming was employed to solve the stochastic problem. • The instant power split decision was made by the online equivalent consumption minimization strategy. • Good performance in fuel economy of the proposed method was verified by simulation results. • Practical application potential of the proposed method was verified by the hardware-in-loop test results.

Generalized bounds for convex multistage stochastic programs

CERN Document Server

Künzi, H; Fandel, G; Trockel, W; Basile, A; Drexl, A; Dawid, H; Inderfurth, K; Kürsten, W; Schittko, U

2005-01-01

This work was completed during my tenure as a scientific assistant and d- toral student at the Institute for Operations Research at the University of St. Gallen. During that time, I was involved in several industry projects in the field of power management, on the occasion of which I was repeatedly c- fronted with complex decision problems under uncertainty. Although usually hard to solve, I quickly learned to appreciate the benefit of stochastic progr- ming models and developed a strong interest in their theoretical properties. Motivated both by practical questions and theoretical concerns, I became p- ticularly interested in the art of finding tight bounds on the optimal value of a given model. The present work attempts to make a contribution to this important branch of stochastic optimization theory. In particular, it aims at extending some classical bounding methods to broader problem classes of practical relevance. This book was accepted as a doctoral thesis by the University of St. Gallen in June 2004.1...

Fitting PAC spectra with stochastic models: PolyPacFit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zacate, M. O., E-mail: zacatem1@nku.edu [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States); Evenson, W. E. [Utah Valley University, College of Science and Health (United States); Newhouse, R.; Collins, G. S. [Washington State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy (United States)

2010-04-15

PolyPacFit is an advanced fitting program for time-differential perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectroscopy. It incorporates stochastic models and provides robust options for customization of fits. Notable features of the program include platform independence and support for (1) fits to stochastic models of hyperfine interactions, (2) user-defined constraints among model parameters, (3) fits to multiple spectra simultaneously, and (4) any spin nuclear probe.

Stochastic risk-constrained short-term scheduling of industrial cogeneration systems in the presence of demand response programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alipour, Manijeh; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam; Zare, Kazem

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Short-term self-scheduling problem of customers with CHP units is conducted. • Power demand and pool prices are forecasted using ARIMA models. • Risk management problem is conducted by implementing CVaR methodology. • The demand response program is implemented in self-scheduling problem of CHP units. • Non-convex feasible operation region in different types of CHP units is modeled. - Abstract: This paper presents a stochastic programming framework for solving the scheduling problem faced by an industrial customer with cogeneration facilities, conventional power production system, and heat only units. The power and heat demands of the customer are supplied considering demand response (DR) programs. In the proposed DR program, the responsive load can vary in different time intervals. In the paper, the heat-power dual dependency characteristic in different types of CHP units is taken into account. In addition, a heat buffer tank, with the ability of heat storage, has been incorporated in the proposed framework. The impact of the market and load uncertainties on the scheduling problem is characterized through a stochastic programming formulation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique is used to generate the electricity price and the customer demand scenarios. The daily and weekly seasonalities of demand and market prices are taken into account in the scenario generation procedure. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) methodology is implemented in order to limit the risk of expected profit due to market price and load forecast volatilities

Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

CERN Document Server

Liu, Shu-Jun

2012-01-01

Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

Optimizing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources with stochastic dynamic programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xinguo

2014-01-01

. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocations and water curtailments. Dynamic allocation problems with inclusion of groundwater resources proved to be more complex to solve with SDP than pure surface water allocation problems due...... to head-dependent pumping costs. These dynamic pumping costs strongly affect the total costs and can lead to non-convexity of the future cost function. The water user groups (agriculture, industry, domestic) are characterized by inelastic demands and fixed water allocation and water supply curtailment...

Design of problem-specific evolutionary algorithm/mixed-integer programming hybrids: two-stage stochastic integer programming applied to chemical batch scheduling

Science.gov (United States)

Urselmann, Maren; Emmerich, Michael T. M.; Till, Jochen; Sand, Guido; Engell, Sebastian

2007-07-01

Engineering optimization often deals with large, mixed-integer search spaces with a rigid structure due to the presence of a large number of constraints. Metaheuristics, such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs), are frequently suggested as solution algorithms in such cases. In order to exploit the full potential of these algorithms, it is important to choose an adequate representation of the search space and to integrate expert-knowledge into the stochastic search operators, without adding unnecessary bias to the search. Moreover, hybridisation with mathematical programming techniques such as mixed-integer programming (MIP) based on a problem decomposition can be considered for improving algorithmic performance. In order to design problem-specific EAs it is desirable to have a set of design guidelines that specify properties of search operators and representations. Recently, a set of guidelines has been proposed that gives rise to so-called Metric-based EAs (MBEAs). Extended by the minimal moves mutation they allow for a generalization of EA with self-adaptive mutation strength in discrete search spaces. In this article, a problem-specific EA for process engineering task is designed, following the MBEA guidelines and minimal moves mutation. On the background of the application, the usefulness of the design framework is discussed, and further extensions and corrections proposed. As a case-study, a two-stage stochastic programming problem in chemical batch process scheduling is considered. The algorithm design problem can be viewed as the choice of a hierarchical decision structure, where on different layers of the decision process symmetries and similarities can be exploited for the design of minimal moves. After a discussion of the design approach and its instantiation for the case-study, the resulting problem-specific EA/MIP is compared to a straightforward application of a canonical EA/MIP and to a monolithic mathematical programming algorithm. In view of the

The role of demand response in single and multi-objective wind-thermal generation scheduling: A stochastic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falsafi, Hananeh; Zakariazadeh, Alireza; Jadid, Shahram

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on using DR (Demand Response) as a means to provide reserve in order to cover uncertainty in wind power forecasting in SG (Smart Grid) environment. The proposed stochastic model schedules energy and reserves provided by both of generating units and responsive loads in power systems with high penetration of wind power. This model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming, where first-stage is associated with electricity market, its rules and constraints and the second-stage is related to actual operation of the power system and its physical limitations in each scenario. The discrete retail customer responses to incentive-based DR programs are aggregated by DRPs (Demand Response Providers) and are submitted as a load change price and amount offer package to ISO (Independent System Operator). Also, price-based DR program behavior and random nature of wind power are modeled by price elasticity concept of the demand and normal probability distribution function, respectively. In the proposed model, DRPs can participate in energy market as well as reserve market and submit their offers to the wholesale electricity market. This approach is implemented on a modified IEEE 30-bus test system over a daily time horizon. The simulation results are analyzed in six different case studies. The cost, emission and multiobjective functions are optimized in both without and with DR cases. The multiobjective generation scheduling model is solved using augmented epsilon constraint method and the best solution can be chosen by Entropy and TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methods. The results indicate demand side participation in energy and reserve scheduling reduces the total operation costs and emissions. - Highlights: • Simultaneous participation of loads in both energy and reserve scheduling. • Environmental/economical scheduling of energy and reserve. • Using demand response for covering wind generation forecast

Economic analysis of energy system considering the uncertainties of crude oil, natural gas and nuclear utilization employing stochastic dynamic programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Keita; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

2016-01-01

The paper presents an economic rationality analysis of power generation mix by stochastic dynamic programming considering fuel price uncertainties and supply disruption risks such as import disruption and nuclear power plant shutdown risk. The situation revolving around Japan's energy security adopted the past statistics, it cannot be applied to a quantitative analysis of future uncertainties. Further objective and quantitative evaluation methods are required in order to analyze Japan's energy system and make it more resilient in sight of long time scale. In this paper, the authors firstly develop the cost minimization model considering oil and natural gas price respectively by stochastic dynamic programming. Then, the authors show several premises of model and an example of result with related to crude oil stockpile, liquefied natural gas stockpile and nuclear power plant capacity. (author)

Demand side management scheme in smart grid with cloud computing approach using stochastic dynamic programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Sofana Reka

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a cloud computing framework in smart grid environment by creating small integrated energy hub supporting real time computing for handling huge storage of data. A stochastic programming approach model is developed with cloud computing scheme for effective demand side management (DSM in smart grid. Simulation results are obtained using GUI interface and Gurobi optimizer in Matlab in order to reduce the electricity demand by creating energy networks in a smart hub approach.

Optimal Strategy for Integrated Dynamic Inventory Control and Supplier Selection in Unknown Environment via Stochastic Dynamic Programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutrisno; Widowati; Solikhin

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in stochastic dynamic optimization form to determine the optimal strategy for an integrated single product inventory control problem and supplier selection problem where the demand and purchasing cost parameters are random. For each time period, by using the proposed model, we decide the optimal supplier and calculate the optimal product volume purchased from the optimal supplier so that the inventory level will be located at some point as close as possible to the reference point with minimal cost. We use stochastic dynamic programming to solve this problem and give several numerical experiments to evaluate the model. From the results, for each time period, the proposed model was generated the optimal supplier and the inventory level was tracked the reference point well. (paper)

An SDP Approach for Multiperiod Mixed 0–1 Linear Programming Models with Stochastic Dominance Constraints for Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Escudero, Laureano F.; Monge, Juan Francisco; Morales, Dolores Romero

2015-01-01

In this paper we consider multiperiod mixed 0–1 linear programming models under uncertainty. We propose a risk averse strategy using stochastic dominance constraints (SDC) induced by mixed-integer linear recourse as the risk measure. The SDC strategy extends the existing literature to the multist...

Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

2010-01-01

Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

Stochastic-based resource expansion planning for a grid-connected microgrid using interval linear programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaban Boloukat, Mohammad Hadi; Akbari Foroud, Asghar

2016-01-01

This paper represents a stochastic approach for long-term optimal resource expansion planning of a grid-connected microgrid (MG) containing different technologies as intermittent renewable energy resources, energy storage systems and thermal resources. Maximizing profit and reliability, along with minimizing investment and operation costs, are major objectives which have been considered in this model. Also, the impacts of intermittency and uncertainty in renewable energy resources were investigated. The interval linear programming (ILP) was applied for modelling inherent stochastic nature of the renewable energy resources. ILP presents some superiority in modelling of uncertainties in MG planning. The problem was formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming. It has been demonstrated previously that the benders decomposition (BD) served as an effective tool for solving such problems. BD divides the original problem into a master (investment) problem and operation and reliability subproblems. In this paper a multiperiod MG planning is presented, considering life time, maximum penetration limit of each technology, interest rate, capital recovery factor and investment fund. Real-time energy exchange with the utility is covered, with a consideration of variable tariffs at different load blocks. The presented approach can help MG planners to adopt best decision under various uncertainty levels based on their budgetary policies. - Highlights: • Considering uncertain nature of the renewable resources with applying ILP. • Considering the effect of intermittency of renewable in MG planning. • Multiobjective MG planning problem which covers cost, profit and reliability. • Multiperiod approach for MG planning considering life time and MPL of technologies. • Presenting real-time energy exchange with the utility considering variable tariffs.

Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning

CERN Document Server

Melchiors, Philipp

2015-01-01

This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.

Energy management in microgrid based on the multi objective stochastic programming incorporating portable renewable energy resource as demand response option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabar, Vahid Sohrabi; Jirdehi, Mehdi Ahmadi; Hemmati, Reza

2017-01-01

Renewable energy resources are often known as cost-effective and lucrative resources and have been widely developed due to environmental-economic issues. Renewable energy utilization even in small scale (e.g., microgrid networks) has attracted significant attention. Energy management in microgrid can be carried out based on the generating side management or demand side management. In this paper, portable renewable energy resource are modeled and included in microgrid energy management as a demand response option. Utilizing such resources could supply the load when microgrid cannot serve the demand. This paper addresses energy management and scheduling in microgrid including thermal and electrical loads, renewable energy sources (solar and wind), CHP, conventional energy sources (boiler and micro turbine), energy storage systems (thermal and electrical ones), and portable renewable energy resource (PRER). Operational cost of microgrid and air pollution are considered as objective functions. Uncertainties related to the parameters are incorporated to make a stochastic programming. The proposed problem is expressed as a constrained, multi-objective, linear, and mixed-integer programing. Augmented Epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. Final results and calculations are achieved using GAMS24.1.3/CPLEX12.5.1. Simulation results demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of the proposed method in microgrid energy management. - Highlights: • Introducing portable renewable energy resource (PRER) and considering effect of them. • Considering reserve margin and sensitivity analysis for validate robustness. • Multi objective and stochastic management with considering various loads and sources. • Using augmented Epsilon-constraint method to solve multi objective program. • Highly decreasing total cost and pollution with PRER in stochastic state.

VIDENTE: a graphical user interface and decision support system for stochastic modelling of water table fluctuations at a single location; includes documentation of the programs KALMAX, KALTFN, SSD and EMERALD and introductions to stochastic modellin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bierkens, M.F.P.; Bron, W.A.

2000-01-01

The VIDENTE program contains a decision support system (DSS) to choose between different models for stochastic modelling of water-table depths, and a graphical user interface to facilitate operating and running four implemented models: KALMAX, KALTFN,SSDS and EMERALD. In self-contained parts each of

Population stochastic modelling (PSM)-An R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode

2009-01-01

are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE1 approximation......The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model...... development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(l)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornoe, R.V Overgaard, H. Agerso, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8...

Stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library

Science.gov (United States)

Zacate, Matthew O.; Evenson, William E.

2011-04-01

The stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library (SHIML) provides a set of routines to assist in the development and application of stochastic models of hyperfine interactions. The library provides routines written in the C programming language that (1) read a text description of a model for fluctuating hyperfine fields, (2) set up the Blume matrix, upon which the evolution operator of the system depends, and (3) find the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Blume matrix so that theoretical spectra of experimental techniques that measure hyperfine interactions can be calculated. The optimized vector and matrix operations of the BLAS and LAPACK libraries are utilized; however, there was a need to develop supplementary code to find an orthonormal set of (left and right) eigenvectors of complex, non-Hermitian matrices. In addition, example code is provided to illustrate the use of SHIML to generate perturbed angular correlation spectra for the special case of polycrystalline samples when anisotropy terms of higher order than A can be neglected. Program summaryProgram title: SHIML Catalogue identifier: AEIF_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEIF_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU GPL 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8224 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 312 348 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C Computer: Any Operating system: LINUX, OS X RAM: Varies Classification: 7.4 External routines: TAPP [1], BLAS [2], a C-interface to BLAS [3], and LAPACK [4] Nature of problem: In condensed matter systems, hyperfine methods such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), Mössbauer effect (ME), muon spin rotation (μSR), and perturbed angular correlation spectroscopy (PAC) measure electronic and magnetic structure within Angstroms of nuclear probes through the hyperfine interaction. When

Stochastic Analysis 2010

CERN Document Server

Crisan, Dan

2011-01-01

"Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds.

Science.gov (United States)

Burdick, Clark; Manchester, Joyce

Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.

A fuzzy-stochastic power system planning model: Reflection of dual objectives and dual uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, X.Y.; Huang, G.H.; Zhu, H.; Li, Y.P.

2017-01-01

In this study, a fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed for supporting sustainable management of electric power system (EPS) under dual uncertainties. As an improvement upon the mixed-integer linear fractional programming, FSDFP can not only tackle multi-objective issues effectively without setting weights, but also can deal with uncertain parameters which have both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. Thus, the developed method can help provide valuable information for supporting capacity-expansion planning and in-depth policy analysis of EPS management problems. For demonstrating these advantages, FSDFP has been applied to a case study of a typical regional EPS planning, where the decision makers have to deal with conflicts between economic development that maximizes the system profit and environmental protection that minimizes the carbon dioxide emissions. The obtained results can be analyzed to generate several decision alternatives, and can then help decision makers make suitable decisions under different input scenarios. Furthermore, comparisons of the solution from FSDFP method with that from fuzzy stochastic dynamic linear programming, linear fractional programming and dynamic stochastic fractional programming methods are undertaken. The contrastive analysis reveals that FSDFP is a more effective approach that can better characterize the complexities and uncertainties of real EPS management problems. - Highlights: • A fuzzy stochastic dynamic fractional programming (FSDFP) method is proposed. • FSDFP can address multiple conflicting objectives without setting weights. • FSDFP can reflect dual uncertainties with both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. • Some reasonable solutions for a case of power system sustainable planning are generated. • Comparisons of the solutions from FSDFP with other optimization methods are undertaken.

Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon

2013-02-15

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p(i) levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help the decision makers justify and/or adjust their waste management strategies based on their implicit knowledge and preferences. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A stochastic security approach to energy and spinning reserve scheduling considering demand response program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Partovi, Farzad; Nikzad, Mehdi; Mozafari, Babak; Ranjbar, Ali Mohamad

2011-01-01

In this paper a new algorithm for allocating energy and determining the optimum amount of network active power reserve capacity and the share of generating units and demand side contribution in providing reserve capacity requirements for day-ahead market is presented. In the proposed method, the optimum amount of reserve requirement is determined based on network security set by operator. In this regard, Expected Load Not Supplied (ELNS) is used to evaluate system security in each hour. The proposed method has been implemented over the IEEE 24-bus test system and the results are compared with a deterministic security approach, which considers certain and fixed amount of reserve capacity in each hour. This comparison is done from economic and technical points of view. The promising results show the effectiveness of the proposed model which is formulated as mixed integer linear programming (MILP) and solved by GAMS software. -- Highlights: → Determination of optimal spinning reserve capacity requirement in order to satisfy desired security level set by system operator based on stochastic approach. → Scheduling energy and spinning reserve markets simultaneously. → Comparing the stochastic approach with deterministic approach to determine the advantages and disadvantages of each. → Examine the effect of demand response participation in reserve market to provide spinning reserve.

A two-stage stochastic programming model for the optimal design of distributed energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Zhe; Zhang, Jianyun; Liu, Pei; Li, Zheng; Georgiadis, Michael C.; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The optimal design of distributed energy systems under uncertainty is studied. ► A stochastic model is developed using genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo method. ► The proposed system possesses inherent robustness under uncertainty. ► The inherent robustness is due to energy storage facilities and grid connection. -- Abstract: A distributed energy system is a multi-input and multi-output energy system with substantial energy, economic and environmental benefits. The optimal design of such a complex system under energy demand and supply uncertainty poses significant challenges in terms of both modelling and corresponding solution strategies. This paper proposes a two-stage stochastic programming model for the optimal design of distributed energy systems. A two-stage decomposition based solution strategy is used to solve the optimization problem with genetic algorithm performing the search on the first stage variables and a Monte Carlo method dealing with uncertainty in the second stage. The model is applied to the planning of a distributed energy system in a hotel. Detailed computational results are presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. The impacts of demand and supply uncertainty on the optimal design of distributed energy systems are systematically investigated using proposed modelling framework and solution approach.

Stochastic linear dynamical programming in order to apply it in energy modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El Hachem, S

1995-11-01

This thesis contributes to the development of new algorithms for the computation of stochastic dynamic problem and its mini-maxi variant for the case of imperfect knowledge on random data. The proposed algorithms are scenarios aggregation type. It also contributes to integrate these algorithms in a decision support approach and to discuss the stochastic modeling of two energy problems: the refining and the portfolio gas contracts. (author). 112 refs., 5 tabs.

PERIODIC REVIEW SYSTEM FOR INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT CONTROL FOR A TWO-ECHELON LOGISTICS NETWORK UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: A TWO-STAGE STOCHASTIC PROGRAMING APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Cunha, P.S.A.; Oliveira, F.; Raupp, Fernanda M.P.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Here, we propose a novel methodology for replenishment and control systems for inventories of two-echelon logistics networks using a two-stage stochastic programming, considering periodic review and uncertain demands. In addition, to achieve better customer services, we introduce a variable rationing rule to address quantities of the item in short. The devised models are reformulated into their deterministic equivalent, resulting in nonlinear mixed-integer programming models, which a...

Stochastic and non-stochastic effects - a conceptual analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karhausen, L.R.

1980-01-01

The attempt to divide radiation effects into stochastic and non-stochastic effects is discussed. It is argued that radiation or toxicological effects are contingently related to radiation or chemical exposure. Biological effects in general can be described by general laws but these laws never represent a necessary connection. Actually stochastic effects express contingent, or empirical, connections while non-stochastic effects represent semantic and non-factual connections. These two expressions stem from two different levels of discourse. The consequence of this analysis for radiation biology and radiation protection is discussed. (author)

Stochastic Robust Mathematical Programming Model for Power System Optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Cong; Changhyeok, Lee; Haoyong, Chen; Mehrotra, Sanjay

2016-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic robust framework for two-stage power system optimization problems with uncertainty. The model optimizes the probabilistic expectation of different worst-case scenarios with ifferent uncertainty sets. A case study of unit commitment shows the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms.

Stochastic analysis for finance with simulations

CERN Document Server

Choe, Geon Ho

2016-01-01

This book is an introduction to stochastic analysis and quantitative finance; it includes both theoretical and computational methods. Topics covered are stochastic calculus, option pricing, optimal portfolio investment, and interest rate models. Also included are simulations of stochastic phenomena, numerical solutions of the Black–Scholes–Merton equation, Monte Carlo methods, and time series. Basic measure theory is used as a tool to describe probabilistic phenomena. The level of familiarity with computer programming is kept to a minimum. To make the book accessible to a wider audience, some background mathematical facts are included in the first part of the book and also in the appendices. This work attempts to bridge the gap between mathematics and finance by using diagrams, graphs and simulations in addition to rigorous theoretical exposition. Simulations are not only used as the computational method in quantitative finance, but they can also facilitate an intuitive and deeper understanding of theoret...

Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to provide a novel risk aversion model for long-term electric power system planning from the manager’s perspective with the consideration of various uncertainties. In the proposed method, interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming are integrated to deal with the technical, economics, and policy uncertainties. Moreover, downside risk theory is introduced to balance the trade-off between the profit and risk according to the decision-maker’s risk aversion attitude. To verify the effectiveness and practical application of this approach, an inexact stochastic risk aversion model is developed for regional electric system planning and management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The series of solutions provide the decision-maker with the optimal investment strategy and operation management under different future emission reduction scenarios and risk-aversion levels. The results indicated that pollution control devices are still the main measures to achieve the current mitigation goal and the adjustment of generation structure would play an important role in the future cleaner electricity system with the stricter environmental policy. In addition, the model can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision-makers identify desired energy structure adjustment and pollutants/carbon mitigation abatement policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints.

Optimization of stochastic discrete systems and control on complex networks computational networks

CERN Document Server

Lozovanu, Dmitrii

2014-01-01

This book presents the latest findings on stochastic dynamic programming models and on solving optimal control problems in networks. It includes the authors' new findings on determining the optimal solution of discrete optimal control problems in networks and on solving game variants of Markov decision problems in the context of computational networks. First, the book studies the finite state space of Markov processes and reviews the existing methods and algorithms for determining the main characteristics in Markov chains, before proposing new approaches based on dynamic programming and combinatorial methods. Chapter two is dedicated to infinite horizon stochastic discrete optimal control models and Markov decision problems with average and expected total discounted optimization criteria, while Chapter three develops a special game-theoretical approach to Markov decision processes and stochastic discrete optimal control problems. In closing, the book's final chapter is devoted to finite horizon stochastic con...

Stochastic Optimisation of Battery System Operation Strategy under different Utility Tariff Structures

OpenAIRE

Erdal, Jørgen Sørgård

2017-01-01

This master thesis develops a stochastic optimisation software for household grid-connected batteries combined with PV-systems. The objective of the optimisation is to operate the battery system in order to minimise the costs of the consumer, and it was implemented in MATLAB using a self-written stochastic dynamic programming algorithm. Load was considered as a stochastic variable and modelled as a Markov Chain. Transition probabilities between time steps were calculated using historic load p...

Stochastic bifurcation and fractal and chaos control of a giant magnetostrictive film-shape memory alloy composite cantilever plate subjected to in-plane harmonic and stochastic excitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Zhiwen; Zhang, Qingxin; Xu, Jia

2014-01-01

Stochastic bifurcation and fractal and chaos control of a giant magnetostrictive film–shape memory alloy (GMF–SMA) composite cantilever plate subjected to in-plane harmonic and stochastic excitation were studied. Van der Pol items were improved to interpret the hysteretic phenomena of both GMF and SMA, and the nonlinear dynamic model of a GMF–SMA composite cantilever plate subjected to in-plane harmonic and stochastic excitation was developed. The probability density function of the dynamic response of the system was obtained, and the conditions of stochastic Hopf bifurcation were analyzed. The conditions of noise-induced chaotic response were obtained in the stochastic Melnikov integral method, and the fractal boundary of the safe basin of the system was provided. Finally, the chaos control strategy was proposed in the stochastic dynamic programming method. Numerical simulation shows that stochastic Hopf bifurcation and chaos appear in the parameter variation process. The boundary of the safe basin of the system has fractal characteristics, and its area decreases when the noise intensifies. The system reliability was improved through stochastic optimal control, and the safe basin area of the system increased

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF MULTIFOCAL STOCHASTIC SCANNING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LIXIN LIU

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Multifocal multiphoton microscopy (MMM has greatly improved the utilization of excitation light and imaging speed due to parallel multiphoton excitation of the samples and simultaneous detection of the signals, which allows it to perform three-dimensional fast fluorescence imaging. Stochastic scanning can provide continuous, uniform and high-speed excitation of the sample, which makes it a suitable scanning scheme for MMM. In this paper, the graphical programming language — LabVIEW is used to achieve stochastic scanning of the two-dimensional galvo scanners by using white noise signals to control the x and y mirrors independently. Moreover, the stochastic scanning process is simulated by using Monte Carlo method. Our results show that MMM can avoid oversampling or subsampling in the scanning area and meet the requirements of uniform sampling by stochastically scanning the individual units of the N × N foci array. Therefore, continuous and uniform scanning in the whole field of view is implemented.

Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, R. M.

2017-12-01

Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

A Stochastic Multiobjective Optimization Framework for Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shibo He

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In wireless sensor networks (WSNs, there generally exist many different objective functions to be optimized. In this paper, we propose a stochastic multiobjective optimization approach to solve such kind of problem. We first formulate a general multiobjective optimization problem. We then decompose the optimization formulation through Lagrange dual decomposition and adopt the stochastic quasigradient algorithm to solve the primal-dual problem in a distributed way. We show theoretically that our algorithm converges to the optimal solution of the primal problem by using the knowledge of stochastic programming. Furthermore, the formulation provides a general stochastic multiobjective optimization framework for WSNs. We illustrate how the general framework works by considering an example of the optimal rate allocation problem in multipath WSNs with time-varying channel. Extensive simulation results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

LP formulation of asymmetric zero-sum stochastic games

KAUST Repository

Li, Lichun

2014-12-15

This paper provides an efficient linear programming (LP) formulation of asymmetric two player zero-sum stochastic games with finite horizon. In these stochastic games, only one player is informed of the state at each stage, and the transition law is only controlled by the informed player. Compared with the LP formulation of extensive stochastic games whose size grows polynomially with respect to the size of the state and the size of the uninformed player\\'s actions, our proposed LP formulation has its size to be linear with respect to the size of the state and the size of the uninformed player, and hence greatly reduces the computational complexity. A travelling inspector problem is used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed LP formulation.

LP formulation of asymmetric zero-sum stochastic games

KAUST Repository

Li, Lichun; Shamma, Jeff S.

2014-01-01

This paper provides an efficient linear programming (LP) formulation of asymmetric two player zero-sum stochastic games with finite horizon. In these stochastic games, only one player is informed of the state at each stage, and the transition law is only controlled by the informed player. Compared with the LP formulation of extensive stochastic games whose size grows polynomially with respect to the size of the state and the size of the uninformed player's actions, our proposed LP formulation has its size to be linear with respect to the size of the state and the size of the uninformed player, and hence greatly reduces the computational complexity. A travelling inspector problem is used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed LP formulation.

Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Three-Echelon Inventory System of Limited Shelf Life Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galal Noha M.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Coordination of inventory decisions within the supply chain is one of the major determinants of its competitiveness in the global market. Products with limited shelf life impose additional challenges in managing the inventory across the supply chain because of the additional wastage costs incurred in case of being stored beyond product’s useful life. This paper presents a stochastic dynamic programming model for inventory replenishment in a serial multi-echelon distribution supply chain. The model considers uncertain stationary discrete demand at the retailer and zero lead time. The objective is to minimize expected total costs across the supply chain echelons, while maintaining a preset service level. The results illustrate that a cost saving of around 17% is achievable due to coordinating inventory decisions across the supply chain.

Stochastic programming of drilling rigs supplies; Programacao estocastica de suprimentos de sondas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vieira, Bruno Ferreira; Ferreira Filho, Virgilio Jose Martins [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)

2012-07-01

The goal of this work is to use techniques of stochastic programming to reduce logistic costs regarding offshore drilling rigs. This theme is of great interest to Brazilian oil industry since there is an increasing number of wells that need to be perforated so that Brazilian oil production can reach its expected growth over the next ten years (PETROBRAS in particular has an ambitious strategy in this respect). Proper treatment of the uncertainties involved in the deliveries of supplies to offshore drilling rigs is essential, namely, these uncertainties need to be included in the models used in logistic models. Delays in the deliveries of products such as chemicals, perforation fluids and tubes may force drilling rigs to stop their operations what highly increases costs. The daily hiring rates of drilling rigs represent the highest cost in the perforation and completion of a well. (author)

Distributed parallel computing in stochastic modeling of groundwater systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Yanhui; Li, Guomin; Xu, Haizhen

2013-03-01

Stochastic modeling is a rapidly evolving, popular approach to the study of the uncertainty and heterogeneity of groundwater systems. However, the use of Monte Carlo-type simulations to solve practical groundwater problems often encounters computational bottlenecks that hinder the acquisition of meaningful results. To improve the computational efficiency, a system that combines stochastic model generation with MODFLOW-related programs and distributed parallel processing is investigated. The distributed computing framework, called the Java Parallel Processing Framework, is integrated into the system to allow the batch processing of stochastic models in distributed and parallel systems. As an example, the system is applied to the stochastic delineation of well capture zones in the Pinggu Basin in Beijing. Through the use of 50 processing threads on a cluster with 10 multicore nodes, the execution times of 500 realizations are reduced to 3% compared with those of a serial execution. Through this application, the system demonstrates its potential in solving difficult computational problems in practical stochastic modeling. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.

Stochastic models for turbulent reacting flows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerstein, A. [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA (United States)

1993-12-01

The goal of this program is to develop and apply stochastic models of various processes occurring within turbulent reacting flows in order to identify the fundamental mechanisms governing these flows, to support experimental studies of these flows, and to further the development of comprehensive turbulent reacting flow models.

Risk-Based Two-Stage Stochastic Optimization Problem of Micro-Grid Operation with Renewables and Incentive-Based Demand Response Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pouria Sheikhahmadi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The operation problem of a micro-grid (MG in grid-connected mode is an optimization one in which the main objective of the MG operator (MGO is to minimize the operation cost with optimal scheduling of resources and optimal trading energy with the main grid. The MGO can use incentive-based demand response programs (DRPs to pay an incentive to the consumers to change their demands in the peak hours. Moreover, the MGO forecasts the output power of renewable energy resources (RERs and models their uncertainties in its problem. In this paper, the operation problem of an MGO is modeled as a risk-based two-stage stochastic optimization problem. To model the uncertainties of RERs, two-stage stochastic programming is considered and conditional value at risk (CVaR index is used to manage the MGO’s risk-level. Moreover, the non-linear economic models of incentive-based DRPs are used by the MGO to change the peak load. The numerical studies are done to investigate the effect of incentive-based DRPs on the operation problem of the MGO. Moreover, to show the effect of the risk-averse parameter on MGO decisions, a sensitivity analysis is carried out.

Initiating stochastic maintenance optimization at Candu Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.K.

2003-01-01

As previously reported at ICONE 6 in New Orleans (1996), the use of various innovative maintenance optimization techniques at Bruce has lead to cost effective preventive maintenance applications for complex systems. Further cost refinement of the station maintenance strategy is being evaluated via the applicability of statistical analysis of historical failure data. Since the statistical evaluation was initiated in 1999 significant progress has been made in demonstrating the viability of stochastic methods in Candu maintenance. Some of the relevant results were presented at ICONE 10 in Washington DC (2002). Success with the graphical displays and the relatively easy to implement stochastic computer programs was sufficient to move the program along to the next significant phase. This next phase consists of investigating the validity of using subjective elicitation techniques to obtain component lifetime distributions. This technique provides access to the elusive failure statistics, the lack of which is often referred to in the literature as the principle impediment preventing the use of stochastic methods in large industry. At the same time the technique allows very valuable information to be captured from the fast retiring 'baby boom generation'. Initial indications have been quite positive. (author)

Noncausal stochastic calculus

CERN Document Server

Ogawa, Shigeyoshi

2017-01-01

This book presents an elementary introduction to the theory of noncausal stochastic calculus that arises as a natural alternative to the standard theory of stochastic calculus founded in 1944 by Professor Kiyoshi Itô. As is generally known, Itô Calculus is essentially based on the "hypothesis of causality", asking random functions to be adapted to a natural filtration generated by Brownian motion or more generally by square integrable martingale. The intention in this book is to establish a stochastic calculus that is free from this "hypothesis of causality". To be more precise, a noncausal theory of stochastic calculus is developed in this book, based on the noncausal integral introduced by the author in 1979. After studying basic properties of the noncausal stochastic integral, various concrete problems of noncausal nature are considered, mostly concerning stochastic functional equations such as SDE, SIE, SPDE, and others, to show not only the necessity of such theory of noncausal stochastic calculus but ...

Ep for efficient stochastic control with obstacles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mensink, T.; Verbeek, J.; Kappen, H.J.

2010-01-01

Abstract. We address the problem of continuous stochastic optimal control in the presence of hard obstacles. Due to the non-smooth character of the obstacles, the traditional approach using dynamic programming in combination with function approximation tends to fail. We consider a recently

VIDENTE 1.1: a graphical user interface and decision support system for stochastic modelling of water table fluctuations at a single location; includes documentation of the programs KALMAX, KALTFN, SSD and EMERALD and introductions to stochastic modelling; 2nd rev. ed

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bierkens, M.F.P.; Bron, W.A.; Knotters, M.

2002-01-01

A description is given of the program VIDENTE. VIDENTE contains a decision support system to choose between different models for stochastic modelling of water-table depths and a graphical user interface to facilitate operating and running four implemented models: KALMAX, KALTFN, SSD and EMERALD. In

FERN - a Java framework for stochastic simulation and evaluation of reaction networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Erhard, Florian; Friedel, Caroline C; Zimmer, Ralf

2008-08-29

Stochastic simulation can be used to illustrate the development of biological systems over time and the stochastic nature of these processes. Currently available programs for stochastic simulation, however, are limited in that they either a) do not provide the most efficient simulation algorithms and are difficult to extend, b) cannot be easily integrated into other applications or c) do not allow to monitor and intervene during the simulation process in an easy and intuitive way. Thus, in order to use stochastic simulation in innovative high-level modeling and analysis approaches more flexible tools are necessary. In this article, we present FERN (Framework for Evaluation of Reaction Networks), a Java framework for the efficient simulation of chemical reaction networks. FERN is subdivided into three layers for network representation, simulation and visualization of the simulation results each of which can be easily extended. It provides efficient and accurate state-of-the-art stochastic simulation algorithms for well-mixed chemical systems and a powerful observer system, which makes it possible to track and control the simulation progress on every level. To illustrate how FERN can be easily integrated into other systems biology applications, plugins to Cytoscape and CellDesigner are included. These plugins make it possible to run simulations and to observe the simulation progress in a reaction network in real-time from within the Cytoscape or CellDesigner environment. FERN addresses shortcomings of currently available stochastic simulation programs in several ways. First, it provides a broad range of efficient and accurate algorithms both for exact and approximate stochastic simulation and a simple interface for extending to new algorithms. FERN's implementations are considerably faster than the C implementations of gillespie2 or the Java implementations of ISBJava. Second, it can be used in a straightforward way both as a stand-alone program and within new

Multiparameter Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System with Continuous Visitor Education Interventions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongping Wei

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Management of ecological tourism in protected areas faces many challenges, with visitation-related resource degradations and cultural impacts being two of them. To address those issues, several strategies including regulations, site managements, and visitor education programs have been commonly used in China and other countries. This paper presents a multiparameter stochastic differential equation model of an Ecological Tourism System to study how the populations of stakeholders vary in a finite time. The solution of Ordinary Differential Equation of Ecological Tourism System reveals that the system collapses when there is a lack of visitor educational intervention. Hence, the Stochastic Dynamic of Ecological Tourism System is introduced to suppress the explosion of the system. But the simulation results of the Stochastic Dynamic of Ecological Tourism System show that the system is still unstable and chaos in some small time interval. The Multiparameters Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System is proposed to improve the performance in this paper. The Multiparameters Stochastic Dynamics of Ecological Tourism System not only suppresses the explosion of the system in a finite time, but also keeps the populations of stakeholders in an acceptable level. In conclusion, the Ecological Tourism System develops steadily and sustainably when land managers employ effective visitor education intervention programs to deal with recreation impacts.

Chance Constrained Input Relaxation to Congestion in Stochastic DEA. An Application to Iranian Hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Kheirollahi, Hooshang; Matin, Behzad Karami; Mahboubi, Mohammad; Alavijeh, Mehdi Mirzaei

2015-01-01

This article developed an approached model of congestion, based on relaxed combination of inputs, in stochastic data envelopment analysis (SDEA) with chance constrained programming approaches. Classic data envelopment analysis models with deterministic data have been used by many authors to identify congestion and estimate its levels; however, data envelopment analysis with stochastic data were rarely used to identify congestion. This article used chance constrained programming approaches to replace stochastic models with "deterministic equivalents". This substitution leads us to non-linear problems that should be solved. Finally, the proposed method based on relaxed combination of inputs was used to identify congestion input in six Iranian hospital with one input and two outputs in the period of 2009 to 2012.

Optimizing basin-scale coupled water quantity and water quality management with stochastic dynamic programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

2015-01-01

Few studies address water quality in hydro-economic models, which often focus primarily on optimal allocation of water quantities. Water quality and water quantity are closely coupled, and optimal management with focus solely on either quantity or quality may cause large costs in terms of the oth......-er component. In this study, we couple water quality and water quantity in a joint hydro-economic catchment-scale optimization problem. Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocation, water curtailment and water treatment. The simple water...... quality module can handle conservative pollutants, first order depletion and non-linear reactions. For demonstration purposes, we model pollutant releases as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and use the Streeter-Phelps equation for oxygen deficit to compute the resulting min-imum dissolved oxygen...

A stochastic programming approach towards optimization of biofuel supply chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, Ali; Vafa Arani, Hamed; Dashti, Hossein

2014-01-01

Bioenergy has been recognized as an important source of energy that will reduce dependency on petroleum. It would have a positive impact on the economy, environment, and society. Production of bioenergy is expected to increase. As a result, we foresee an increase in the number of biorefineries in the near future. This paper analyzes challenges with supplying biomass to a biorefinery and shipping biofuel to demand centers. A stochastic linear programming model is proposed within a multi-period planning framework to maximize the expected profit. The model deals with a time-staged, multi-commodity, production/distribution system, facility locations and capacities, technologies, and material flows. We illustrate the model outputs and discuss the results through numerical examples considering disruptions in biofuel supply chain. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed to gain managerial insights on how profit changes due to existing uncertainties. - Highlights: • A robust model of biofuel SC is proposed and a sensitivity analysis implemented. • Demand of products is a function of price and GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) is used for prices of biofuels. • Uncertainties in SC network are captured through defining probabilistic scenarios. • Both traditional feedstock and lignocellulosic biomass are considered for biofuel production. • Developed model is applicable to any related biofuel supply chain regardless of region

STOCHASTIC FLOWS OF MAPPINGS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2007-01-01

In this paper, the stochastic flow of mappings generated by a Feller convolution semigroup on a compact metric space is studied. This kind of flow is the generalization of superprocesses of stochastic flows and stochastic diffeomorphism induced by the strong solutions of stochastic differential equations.

Stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Parzen, Emanuel

1962-01-01

Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine

Electricity market clearing with improved dispatch of stochastic production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales González, Juan Miguel; Zugno, Marco; Pineda, Salvador

2014-01-01

In this paper, we consider an electricity market that consists of a day-ahead and a balancing settlement, and includes a number of stochastic producers. We first introduce two reference procedures for scheduling and pricing energy in the day-ahead market: on the one hand, a conventional network...... attains higher market efficiency in expectation than the conventional day-ahead auction, it suffers from fundamental drawbacks with a view to its practical implementation. In particular, it requires flexible producers (those that make up for the lack or surplus of stochastic generation) to accept losses...... in some scenarios. Using a bilevel programming framework, we then show that the conventional auction, if combined with a suitable day-ahead dispatch of stochastic producers (generally different from their expected production), can substantially increase market efficiency and emulate the advantageous...

Stochastic Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for Wind Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. D. Le

2018-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present an optimal capacity decision model for energy storage systems (ESSs in combined operation with wind energy in power systems. We use a two-stage stochastic programming approach to take into account both wind and load uncertainties. The planning problem is formulated as an AC optimal power flow (OPF model with the objective of minimizing ESS installation cost and system operation cost. Stochastic wind and load inputs for the model are generated from historical data using clustering technique. The model is tested on the IEEE 39-bus system.

Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

CERN Document Server

Kulkarni, V G

2011-01-01

This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

Population stochastic modelling (PSM)--an R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik

2009-06-01

The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.

A Two-Stage Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming Approach to the Smart House Scheduling Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Ozoe, Shunsuke; Tanaka, Yoichi; Fukushima, Masao

A “Smart House” is a highly energy-optimized house equipped with photovoltaic systems (PV systems), electric battery systems, fuel cell cogeneration systems (FC systems), electric vehicles (EVs) and so on. Smart houses are attracting much attention recently thanks to their enhanced ability to save energy by making full use of renewable energy and by achieving power grid stability despite an increased power draw for installed PV systems. Yet running a smart house's power system, with its multiple power sources and power storages, is no simple task. In this paper, we consider the problem of power scheduling for a smart house with a PV system, an FC system and an EV. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer programming problem, and then extend it to a stochastic programming problem involving recourse costs to cope with uncertain electricity demand, heat demand and PV power generation. Using our method, we seek to achieve the optimal power schedule running at the minimum expected operation cost. We present some results of numerical experiments with data on real-life demands and PV power generation to show the effectiveness of our method.

Stochastic learning in oxide binary synaptic device for neuromorphic computing.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Shimeng; Gao, Bin; Fang, Zheng; Yu, Hongyu; Kang, Jinfeng; Wong, H-S Philip

2013-01-01

Hardware implementation of neuromorphic computing is attractive as a computing paradigm beyond the conventional digital computing. In this work, we show that the SET (off-to-on) transition of metal oxide resistive switching memory becomes probabilistic under a weak programming condition. The switching variability of the binary synaptic device implements a stochastic learning rule. Such stochastic SET transition was statistically measured and modeled for a simulation of a winner-take-all network for competitive learning. The simulation illustrates that with such stochastic learning, the orientation classification function of input patterns can be effectively realized. The system performance metrics were compared between the conventional approach using the analog synapse and the approach in this work that employs the binary synapse utilizing the stochastic learning. The feasibility of using binary synapse in the neurormorphic computing may relax the constraints to engineer continuous multilevel intermediate states and widens the material choice for the synaptic device design.

Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

CERN Document Server

Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

2016-01-01

This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

Stability, Empirical Estimates and Scenario Generation in Stochastic Optimization - Applications in Finance

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kaňková, Vlasta

2017-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 6 (2017), s. 1026-1046 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-10331S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stochastic programming * stochastic dominance * empirical estimates * financial applications Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kankova-0485151.pdf

GillesPy: A Python Package for Stochastic Model Building and Simulation

OpenAIRE

Abel, John H.; Drawert, Brian; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda R.

2016-01-01

GillesPy is an open-source Python package for model construction and simulation of stochastic biochemical systems. GillesPy consists of a Python framework for model building and an interface to the StochKit2 suite of efficient simulation algorithms based on the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithms (SSA). To enable intuitive model construction and seamless integration into the scientific Python stack, we present an easy to understand, action-oriented programming interface. Here, we descr...

Optimizing Water Allocation under Uncertain System Conditions for Water and Agriculture Future Scenarios in Alfeios River Basin (Greece—Part B: Fuzzy-Boundary Intervals Combined with Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleni Bekri

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Optimal water allocation within a river basin still remains a great modeling challenge for engineers due to various hydrosystem complexities, parameter uncertainties and their interactions. Conventional deterministic optimization approaches have given their place to stochastic, fuzzy and interval-parameter programming approaches and their hybrid combinations for overcoming these difficulties. In many countries, including Mediterranean countries, water resources management is characterized by uncertain, imprecise and limited data because of the absence of permanent measuring systems, inefficient river monitoring and fragmentation of authority responsibilities. A fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology developed by Li et al. (2010 is selected and applied in the Alfeios river basin (Greece for optimal water allocation under uncertain system conditions. This methodology combines an ordinary multi-stage stochastic programming with uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-boundary intervals. Upper- and lower-bound solution intervals for optimized water allocation targets and probabilistic water allocations and shortages are estimated under a baseline scenario and four water and agricultural policy future scenarios for an optimistic and a pessimistic attitude of the decision makers. In this work, the uncertainty of the random water inflows is incorporated through the simultaneous generation of stochastic equal-probability hydrologic scenarios at various inflow positions instead of using a scenario-tree approach in the original methodology.

Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Haastrecht, A.; Lord, R.; Pelsser, A.; Schrager, D.

2009-01-01

We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of

Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. F. Wei

2012-01-01

Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.

The interpolation method of stochastic functions and the stochastic variational principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xianbin; Chen Qiu

1993-01-01

Uncertainties have been attaching more importance to increasingly in modern engineering structural design. Viewed on an appropriate scale, the inherent physical attributes (material properties) of many structural systems always exhibit some patterns of random variation in space and time, generally the random variation shows a small parameter fluctuation. For a linear mechanical system, the random variation is modeled as a random one of a linear partial differential operator and, in stochastic finite element method, a random variation of a stiffness matrix. Besides the stochasticity of the structural physical properties, the influences of random loads which always represent themselves as the random boundary conditions bring about much more complexities in structural analysis. Now the stochastic finite element method or the probabilistic finite element method is used to study the structural systems with random physical parameters, whether or not the loads are random. Differing from the general finite element theory, the main difficulty which the stochastic finite element method faces is the inverse operation of stochastic operators and stochastic matrices, since the inverse operators and the inverse matrices are statistically correlated to the random parameters and random loads. So far, many efforts have been made to obtain the reasonably approximate expressions of the inverse operators and inverse matrices, such as Perturbation Method, Neumann Expansion Method, Galerkin Method (in appropriate Hilbert Spaces defined for random functions), Orthogonal Expansion Method. Among these methods, Perturbation Method appear to be the most available. The advantage of these methods is that the fairly accurate response statistics can be obtained under the condition of the finite information of the input. However, the second-order statistics obtained by use of Perturbation Method and Neumann Expansion Method are not always the appropriate ones, because the relevant second

A Stochastic Integer Programming Model for Minimizing Cost in the Use of Rain Water Collectors for Firefighting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis A. Rivera-Morales

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose a stochastic integer programming optimization model to determine the optimal location and number of rain water collectors (RWCs for forest firefighting. The objective is to minimize expected total cost to control forest fires. The model is tested using a real case and several additional realistic scenarios. The impact on the solution of varying the limit on the number of RWCs, the RWC water capacity, the aircraft capacity, the water demands, and the aircraft operating cost is explored. Some observations are that the objective value improves with larger RWCs and with the use of aircraft with greater capacity.

DEA-Risk Efficiency and Stochastic Dominance Efficiency of Stock Indices

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Branda, M.; Kopa, Miloš

2012-01-01

Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 106-124 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/12/0558 Program:GA Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Data Envelopment Analysis * Risk measures * Index efficiency * Stochastic dominance Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/branda-dea-risk efficiency and stochastic dominance efficiency of stock indices.pdf

Multiscale Hy3S: Hybrid stochastic simulation for supercomputers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaznessis Yiannis N

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Stochastic simulation has become a useful tool to both study natural biological systems and design new synthetic ones. By capturing the intrinsic molecular fluctuations of "small" systems, these simulations produce a more accurate picture of single cell dynamics, including interesting phenomena missed by deterministic methods, such as noise-induced oscillations and transitions between stable states. However, the computational cost of the original stochastic simulation algorithm can be high, motivating the use of hybrid stochastic methods. Hybrid stochastic methods partition the system into multiple subsets and describe each subset as a different representation, such as a jump Markov, Poisson, continuous Markov, or deterministic process. By applying valid approximations and self-consistently merging disparate descriptions, a method can be considerably faster, while retaining accuracy. In this paper, we describe Hy3S, a collection of multiscale simulation programs. Results Building on our previous work on developing novel hybrid stochastic algorithms, we have created the Hy3S software package to enable scientists and engineers to both study and design extremely large well-mixed biological systems with many thousands of reactions and chemical species. We have added adaptive stochastic numerical integrators to permit the robust simulation of dynamically stiff biological systems. In addition, Hy3S has many useful features, including embarrassingly parallelized simulations with MPI; special discrete events, such as transcriptional and translation elongation and cell division; mid-simulation perturbations in both the number of molecules of species and reaction kinetic parameters; combinatorial variation of both initial conditions and kinetic parameters to enable sensitivity analysis; use of NetCDF optimized binary format to quickly read and write large datasets; and a simple graphical user interface, written in Matlab, to help users

A Stochastic Operational Planning Model for Smart Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sh. Jadid

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Smart Grids are result of utilizing novel technologies such as distributed energy resources, and communication technologies in power system to compensate some of its defects. Various power resources provide some benefits for operation domain however, power system operator should use a powerful methodology to manage them. Renewable resources and load add uncertainty to the problem. So, independent system operator should use a stochastic method to manage them. A Stochastic unit commitment is presented in this paper to schedule various power resources such as distributed generation units, conventional thermal generation units, wind and PV farms, and demand response resources. Demand response resources, interruptible loads, distributed generation units, and conventional thermal generation units are used to provide required reserve for compensating stochastic nature of various resources and loads. In the presented model, resources connected to distribution network can participate in wholesale market through aggregators. Moreover, a novel three-program model which can be used by aggregators is presented in this article. Loads and distributed generation can contract with aggregators by these programs. A three-bus test system and the IEEE RTS are used to illustrate usefulness of the presented model. The results show that ISO can manage the system effectively by using this model

Momentum and Stochastic Momentum for Stochastic Gradient, Newton, Proximal Point and Subspace Descent Methods

KAUST Repository

Loizou, Nicolas

2017-12-27

In this paper we study several classes of stochastic optimization algorithms enriched with heavy ball momentum. Among the methods studied are: stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton, stochastic proximal point and stochastic dual subspace ascent. This is the first time momentum variants of several of these methods are studied. We choose to perform our analysis in a setting in which all of the above methods are equivalent. We prove global nonassymptotic linear convergence rates for all methods and various measures of success, including primal function values, primal iterates (in L2 sense), and dual function values. We also show that the primal iterates converge at an accelerated linear rate in the L1 sense. This is the first time a linear rate is shown for the stochastic heavy ball method (i.e., stochastic gradient descent method with momentum). Under somewhat weaker conditions, we establish a sublinear convergence rate for Cesaro averages of primal iterates. Moreover, we propose a novel concept, which we call stochastic momentum, aimed at decreasing the cost of performing the momentum step. We prove linear convergence of several stochastic methods with stochastic momentum, and show that in some sparse data regimes and for sufficiently small momentum parameters, these methods enjoy better overall complexity than methods with deterministic momentum. Finally, we perform extensive numerical testing on artificial and real datasets, including data coming from average consensus problems.

Momentum and Stochastic Momentum for Stochastic Gradient, Newton, Proximal Point and Subspace Descent Methods

KAUST Repository

Loizou, Nicolas; Richtarik, Peter

2017-01-01

In this paper we study several classes of stochastic optimization algorithms enriched with heavy ball momentum. Among the methods studied are: stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton, stochastic proximal point and stochastic dual subspace ascent. This is the first time momentum variants of several of these methods are studied. We choose to perform our analysis in a setting in which all of the above methods are equivalent. We prove global nonassymptotic linear convergence rates for all methods and various measures of success, including primal function values, primal iterates (in L2 sense), and dual function values. We also show that the primal iterates converge at an accelerated linear rate in the L1 sense. This is the first time a linear rate is shown for the stochastic heavy ball method (i.e., stochastic gradient descent method with momentum). Under somewhat weaker conditions, we establish a sublinear convergence rate for Cesaro averages of primal iterates. Moreover, we propose a novel concept, which we call stochastic momentum, aimed at decreasing the cost of performing the momentum step. We prove linear convergence of several stochastic methods with stochastic momentum, and show that in some sparse data regimes and for sufficiently small momentum parameters, these methods enjoy better overall complexity than methods with deterministic momentum. Finally, we perform extensive numerical testing on artificial and real datasets, including data coming from average consensus problems.

Chance-constrained/stochastic linear programming model for acid rain abatement. I. Complete colinearity and noncolinearity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, J H; McBean, E A; Farquhar, G J

1985-01-01

A Linear Programming model is presented for development of acid rain abatement strategies in eastern North America. For a system comprised of 235 large controllable point sources and 83 uncontrolled area sources, it determines the least-cost method of reducing SO/sub 2/ emissions to satisfy maximum wet sulfur deposition limits at 20 sensitive receptor locations. In this paper, the purely deterministic model is extended to a probabilistic form by incorporating the effects of meteorologic variability on the long-range pollutant transport processes. These processes are represented by source-receptor-specific transfer coefficients. Experiments for quantifying the spatial variability of transfer coefficients showed their distributions to be approximately lognormal with logarithmic standard deviations consistently about unity. Three methods of incorporating second-moment random variable uncertainty into the deterministic LP framework are described: Two-Stage Programming Under Uncertainty, Chance-Constrained Programming and Stochastic Linear Programming. A composite CCP-SLP model is developed which embodies the two-dimensional characteristics of transfer coefficient uncertainty. Two probabilistic formulations are described involving complete colinearity and complete noncolinearity for the transfer coefficient covariance-correlation structure. The completely colinear and noncolinear formulations are considered extreme bounds in a meteorologic sense and yield abatement strategies of largely didactic value. Such strategies can be characterized as having excessive costs and undesirable deposition results in the completely colinear case and absence of a clearly defined system risk level (other than expected-value) in the noncolinear formulation.

Stochastic neuron models

CERN Document Server

Greenwood, Priscilla E

2016-01-01

This book describes a large number of open problems in the theory of stochastic neural systems, with the aim of enticing probabilists to work on them. This includes problems arising from stochastic models of individual neurons as well as those arising from stochastic models of the activities of small and large networks of interconnected neurons. The necessary neuroscience background to these problems is outlined within the text, so readers can grasp the context in which they arise. This book will be useful for graduate students and instructors providing material and references for applying probability to stochastic neuron modeling. Methods and results are presented, but the emphasis is on questions where additional stochastic analysis may contribute neuroscience insight. An extensive bibliography is included. Dr. Priscilla E. Greenwood is a Professor Emerita in the Department of Mathematics at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Lawrence M. Ward is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Brain...

MCdevelop - a universal framework for Stochastic Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Slawinska, M.; Jadach, S.

2011-03-01

We present MCdevelop, a universal computer framework for developing and exploiting the wide class of Stochastic Simulations (SS) software. This powerful universal SS software development tool has been derived from a series of scientific projects for precision calculations in high energy physics (HEP), which feature a wide range of functionality in the SS software needed for advanced precision Quantum Field Theory calculations for the past LEP experiments and for the ongoing LHC experiments at CERN, Geneva. MCdevelop is a "spin-off" product of HEP to be exploited in other areas, while it will still serve to develop new SS software for HEP experiments. Typically SS involve independent generation of large sets of random "events", often requiring considerable CPU power. Since SS jobs usually do not share memory it makes them easy to parallelize. The efficient development, testing and running in parallel SS software requires a convenient framework to develop software source code, deploy and monitor batch jobs, merge and analyse results from multiple parallel jobs, even before the production runs are terminated. Throughout the years of development of stochastic simulations for HEP, a sophisticated framework featuring all the above mentioned functionality has been implemented. MCdevelop represents its latest version, written mostly in C++ (GNU compiler gcc). It uses Autotools to build binaries (optionally managed within the KDevelop 3.5.3 Integrated Development Environment (IDE)). It uses the open-source ROOT package for histogramming, graphics and the mechanism of persistency for the C++ objects. MCdevelop helps to run multiple parallel jobs on any computer cluster with NQS-type batch system. Program summaryProgram title:MCdevelop Catalogue identifier: AEHW_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEHW_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-01-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-06-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Stochastic tools in turbulence

CERN Document Server

Lumey, John L

2012-01-01

Stochastic Tools in Turbulence discusses the available mathematical tools to describe stochastic vector fields to solve problems related to these fields. The book deals with the needs of turbulence in relation to stochastic vector fields, particularly, on three-dimensional aspects, linear problems, and stochastic model building. The text describes probability distributions and densities, including Lebesgue integration, conditional probabilities, conditional expectations, statistical independence, lack of correlation. The book also explains the significance of the moments, the properties of the

Incorporating Daily Flood Control Objectives Into a Monthly Stochastic Dynamic Programing Model for a Hydroelectric Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Druce, Donald J.

1990-01-01

A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model establishes the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

Incorporating daily flood control objectives into a monthly stochastic dynamic programming model for a hydroelectric complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))

1990-01-01

A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

Stochastic processes in cell biology

CERN Document Server

Bressloff, Paul C

2014-01-01

This book develops the theory of continuous and discrete stochastic processes within the context of cell biology.  A wide range of biological topics are covered including normal and anomalous diffusion in complex cellular environments, stochastic ion channels and excitable systems, stochastic calcium signaling, molecular motors, intracellular transport, signal transduction, bacterial chemotaxis, robustness in gene networks, genetic switches and oscillators, cell polarization, polymerization, cellular length control, and branching processes. The book also provides a pedagogical introduction to the theory of stochastic process – Fokker Planck equations, stochastic differential equations, master equations and jump Markov processes, diffusion approximations and the system size expansion, first passage time problems, stochastic hybrid systems, reaction-diffusion equations, exclusion processes, WKB methods, martingales and branching processes, stochastic calculus, and numerical methods.   This text is primarily...

Stochastic energy procurement of large electricity consumer considering photovoltaic, wind-turbine, micro-turbines, energy storage system in the presence of demand response program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nojavan, Sayyad; Aalami, Habib allah

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A stochastic energy procurement cost function in presence of DRP is proposed. • The load, price and output power of PV and wind uncertainties are modeled. • Four case studies are used to assess the effects of ESS and DRP on SEPP. • Case 4 is considered the effects of ESS and DRP simultaneously. • The expected energy procurement cost of case 4 is lower than cases 1, 2 and 3. - Abstract: This paper proposes a stochastic energy procurement problem (SEPP) for large electricity consumer (LEC) with multiple energy procurement sources (EPSs) considering the effects of demand response program (DRP) and energy storage system (ESS). The EPSs contain power market (PM), bilateral contracts (BCs), micro-turbines (MTs), and renewable energy sources (RESs). Moreover, the RESs include photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind-turbines (WT). The ESS and DRP are incorporated in the SEPP by the LEC’s decision-maker to reduce the expected energy procurement cost (EEPC). Meanwhile, the uncertainty models of market price, load and RES output power are considered in the SEPP formulation. The error of forecasting of market price, load, temperature and radiation of PV systems are modeled using the normal distribution for generating the related scenarios. Also, the weibull distribution is used to generate variable wind speed scenarios for WT output power uncertainty modeling. Furthermore, the fast forward selection based on Kantorovich distance approach is used for the scenarios reduction. Finally, the influences of ESS and DRP on EEPC are investigated, and four case studies are used to illustrate the capability of the proposed SEPP. The obtained results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed stochastic program

Stochastic pump effect and geometric phases in dissipative and stochastic systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01

The success of Berry phases in quantum mechanics stimulated the study of similar phenomena in other areas of physics, including the theory of living cell locomotion and motion of patterns in nonlinear media. More recently, geometric phases have been applied to systems operating in a strongly stochastic environment, such as molecular motors. We discuss such geometric effects in purely classical dissipative stochastic systems and their role in the theory of the stochastic pump effect (SPE).

Stochastic Simulation of Process Calculi for Biology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Phillips

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Biological systems typically involve large numbers of components with complex, highly parallel interactions and intrinsic stochasticity. To model this complexity, numerous programming languages based on process calculi have been developed, many of which are expressive enough to generate unbounded numbers of molecular species and reactions. As a result of this expressiveness, such calculi cannot rely on standard reaction-based simulation methods, which require fixed numbers of species and reactions. Rather than implementing custom stochastic simulation algorithms for each process calculus, we propose to use a generic abstract machine that can be instantiated to a range of process calculi and a range of reaction-based simulation algorithms. The abstract machine functions as a just-in-time compiler, which dynamically updates the set of possible reactions and chooses the next reaction in an iterative cycle. In this short paper we give a brief summary of the generic abstract machine, and show how it can be instantiated with the stochastic simulation algorithm known as Gillespie's Direct Method. We also discuss the wider implications of such an abstract machine, and outline how it can be used to simulate multiple calculi simultaneously within a common framework.

Probabilistic DHP adaptive critic for nonlinear stochastic control systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzallah, Randa

2013-06-01

Following the recently developed algorithms for fully probabilistic control design for general dynamic stochastic systems (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996), this paper presents the solution to the probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP) adaptive critic method (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011) and randomized control algorithm for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems. The purpose of the randomized control input design is to make the joint probability density function of the closed loop system as close as possible to a predetermined ideal joint probability density function. This paper completes the previous work (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996) by formulating and solving the fully probabilistic control design problem on the more general case of nonlinear stochastic discrete time systems. A simulated example is used to demonstrate the use of the algorithm and encouraging results have been obtained. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential stochastic optimization

CERN Document Server

Cairoli, Renzo

1996-01-01

Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-paramet

XMDS2: Fast, scalable simulation of coupled stochastic partial differential equations

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis, Graham R.; Hope, Joseph J.; Johnsson, Mattias T.

2013-01-01

XMDS2 is a cross-platform, GPL-licensed, open source package for numerically integrating initial value problems that range from a single ordinary differential equation up to systems of coupled stochastic partial differential equations. The equations are described in a high-level XML-based script, and the package generates low-level optionally parallelised C++ code for the efficient solution of those equations. It combines the advantages of high-level simulations, namely fast and low-error development, with the speed, portability and scalability of hand-written code. XMDS2 is a complete redesign of the XMDS package, and features support for a much wider problem space while also producing faster code. Program summaryProgram title: XMDS2 Catalogue identifier: AENK_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AENK_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License, version 2 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 872490 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 45522370 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Python and C++. Computer: Any computer with a Unix-like system, a C++ compiler and Python. Operating system: Any Unix-like system; developed under Mac OS X and GNU/Linux. RAM: Problem dependent (roughly 50 bytes per grid point) Classification: 4.3, 6.5. External routines: The external libraries required are problem-dependent. Uses FFTW3 Fourier transforms (used only for FFT-based spectral methods), dSFMT random number generation (used only for stochastic problems), MPI message-passing interface (used only for distributed problems), HDF5, GNU Scientific Library (used only for Bessel-based spectral methods) and a BLAS implementation (used only for non-FFT-based spectral methods). Nature of problem: General coupled initial-value stochastic partial differential equations. Solution method: Spectral method

Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

HEALTH - module for assessment of stochastic health effects after nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raicevic, J.J.; Gajic, M.; Popovic, Z.

2003-01-01

In this paper the program module HEALTH for assessment of stochastic health effects in the case of nuclear accidents is presented. Program module HEALTH is a part of the new European real-time computer system RODOS for nuclear emergency and preparedness. Some of the key features of module HEALTH are presented, and some possible further improvements are discussed (author)

Singular stochastic differential equations

CERN Document Server

Cherny, Alexander S

2005-01-01

The authors introduce, in this research monograph on stochastic differential equations, a class of points termed isolated singular points. Stochastic differential equations possessing such points (called singular stochastic differential equations here) arise often in theory and in applications. However, known conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a solution typically fail for such equations. The book concentrates on the study of the existence, the uniqueness, and, what is most important, on the qualitative behaviour of solutions of singular stochastic differential equations. This is done by providing a qualitative classification of isolated singular points, into 48 possible types.

Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2009-10-09

We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

Optimal stochastic energy management of retailer based on selling price determination under smart grid environment in the presence of demand response program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nojavan, Sayyad; Zare, Kazem; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Stochastic energy management of retailer under smart grid environment is proposed. • Optimal selling price is determined in the smart grid environment. • Fixed, time-of-use and real-time pricing are determined for selling to customers. • Charge/discharge of ESS is determined to increase the expected profit of retailer. • Demand response program is proposed to increase the expected profit of retailer. - Abstract: In this paper, bilateral contracting and selling price determination problems for an electricity retailer in the smart grid environment under uncertainties have been considered. Multiple energy procurement sources containing pool market (PM), bilateral contracts (BCs), distributed generation (DG) units, renewable energy sources (photovoltaic (PV) system and wind turbine (WT)) and energy storage system (ESS) as well as demand response program (DRP) as virtual generation unit are considered. The scenario-based stochastic framework is used for uncertainty modeling of pool market prices, client group demand and variable climate condition containing temperature, irradiation and wind speed. In the proposed model, the selling price is determined and compared by the retailer in the smart grid in three cases containing fixed pricing, time-of-use (TOU) pricing and real-time pricing (RTP). It is shown that the selling price determination based on RTP by the retailer leads to higher expected profit. Furthermore, demand response program (DRP) has been implemented to flatten the load profile to minimize the cost for end-user customers as well as increasing the retailer profit. To validate the proposed model, three case studies are used and the results are compared.

GillesPy: A Python Package for Stochastic Model Building and Simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Abel, John H; Drawert, Brian; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda R

2016-09-01

GillesPy is an open-source Python package for model construction and simulation of stochastic biochemical systems. GillesPy consists of a Python framework for model building and an interface to the StochKit2 suite of efficient simulation algorithms based on the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithms (SSA). To enable intuitive model construction and seamless integration into the scientific Python stack, we present an easy to understand, action-oriented programming interface. Here, we describe the components of this package and provide a detailed example relevant to the computational biology community.

Lot Sizing Based on Stochastic Demand and Service Level Constraint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

hajar shirneshan

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Considering its application, stochastic lot sizing is a significant subject in production planning. Also the concept of service level is more applicable than shortage cost from managers' viewpoint. In this paper, the stochastic multi period multi item capacitated lot sizing problem has been investigated considering service level constraint. First, the single item model has been developed considering service level and with no capacity constraint and then, it has been solved using dynamic programming algorithm and the optimal solution has been derived. Then the model has been generalized to multi item problem with capacity constraint. The stochastic multi period multi item capacitated lot sizing problem is NP-Hard, hence the model could not be solved by exact optimization approaches. Therefore, simulated annealing method has been applied for solving the problem. Finally, in order to evaluate the efficiency of the model, low level criterion has been used .

Stochastic quantization of a topological quantum mechanical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antunes, Sergio; Krein, Gastao; Menezes, Gabriel; Svaiter, Nami Fux

2011-01-01

Full text: Stochastic quantization of complex actions has been extensively studied in the literature. In these models, a Markovian Langevin equation is used in order to study the quantization of such systems. In such papers, the advantages of the Markovian stochastic quantization method were explored and exposed. However, many drawbacks of the method were also pointed out, such as instability of the simulations with absence of convergence and sometimes convergence to the wrong limit. Indeed, although several alternative methods have been proposed to deal with interesting physical systems where the action is complex, these approaches do not suggest any general way of solving the particular difficulties that arise in each situation. Here, we wish to make contributions to the program of stochastic quantization of theories with imaginary action by investigating the consequences of a non-Markovian stochastic quantization in a particular situation, namely a quantum mechanical topological action. We analyze the Markovian stochastic quantization for a topological quantum mechanical action which is analog to a Maxwell-Chern-Simons action in the Weyl gauge. Afterwards we consider a Langevin equation with memory kernel and Einstein's relations with colored noise. We show that convergence towards equilibrium is achieved in both regimes. We also sketch a simple numerical analysis to investigate the possible advantages of non-Markovian procedure over the usual Markovian quantization. Both retarded Green's function for the diffusion problem are considered in such analysis. We show that, although the results indicated that the effect of memory kernel, as usually expected, is to delay the convergence to equilibrium, non-Markovian systems imply a faster decay compared to Markovian ones as well as smoother convergence to equilibrium. (author)

Recent advances in ambit stochastics with a view towards tempo-spatial stochastic volatility/intermittency

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E.; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

Ambit stochastics is the name for the theory and applications of ambit fields and ambit processes and constitutes a new research area in stochastics for tempo-spatial phenomena. This paper gives an overview of the main findings in ambit stochastics up to date and establishes new results on genera...

Functional Abstraction of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bujorianu, L.M.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Hermanns, H.

2006-01-01

The verification problem for stochastic hybrid systems is quite difficult. One method to verify these systems is stochastic reachability analysis. Concepts of abstractions for stochastic hybrid systems are needed to ease the stochastic reachability analysis. In this paper, we set up different ways

Stochastic quantisation: theme and variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klauder, J.R.; Kyoto Univ.

1987-01-01

The paper on stochastic quantisation is a contribution to the book commemorating the sixtieth birthday of E.S. Fradkin. Stochastic quantisation reformulates Euclidean quantum field theory in the language of Langevin equations. The generalised free field is discussed from the viewpoint of stochastic quantisation. An artificial family of highly singular model theories wherein the space-time derivatives are dropped altogether is also examined. Finally a modified form of stochastic quantisation is considered. (U.K.)

Control of Networked Traffic Flow Distribution - A Stochastic Distribution System Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Aziz, H M Abdul [ORNL; Young, Stan [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Patil, Sagar [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

2017-10-01

Networked traffic flow is a common scenario for urban transportation, where the distribution of vehicle queues either at controlled intersections or highway segments reflect the smoothness of the traffic flow in the network. At signalized intersections, the traffic queues are controlled by traffic signal control settings and effective traffic lights control would realize both smooth traffic flow and minimize fuel consumption. Funded by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) program of the Vehicle Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy, we performed a preliminary investigation on the modelling and control framework in context of urban network of signalized intersections. In specific, we developed a recursive input-output traffic queueing models. The queue formation can be modeled as a stochastic process where the number of vehicles entering each intersection is a random number. Further, we proposed a preliminary B-Spline stochastic model for a one-way single-lane corridor traffic system based on theory of stochastic distribution control.. It has been shown that the developed stochastic model would provide the optimal probability density function (PDF) of the traffic queueing length as a dynamic function of the traffic signal setting parameters. Based upon such a stochastic distribution model, we have proposed a preliminary closed loop framework on stochastic distribution control for the traffic queueing system to make the traffic queueing length PDF follow a target PDF that potentially realizes the smooth traffic flow distribution in a concerned corridor.

STOCHASTIC ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIAN STOCHASTIC ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

eobe

STOCHASTIC ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIAN WOOD FOR BRIDGE DECKS ... abandoned bridges with defects only in their decks in both rural and urban locations can be effectively .... which can be seen as the detection of rare physical.

Deterministic and Stochastic Study for an Infected Computer Network Model Powered by a System of Antivirus Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youness El Ansari

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the various conditions that control the extinction and stability of a nonlinear mathematical spread model with stochastic perturbations. This model describes the spread of viruses into an infected computer network which is powered by a system of antivirus software. The system is analyzed by using the stability theory of stochastic differential equations and the computer simulations. First, we study the global stability of the virus-free equilibrium state and the virus-epidemic equilibrium state. Furthermore, we use the Itô formula and some other theoretical theorems of stochastic differential equation to discuss the extinction and the stationary distribution of our system. The analysis gives a sufficient condition for the infection to be extinct (i.e., the number of viruses tends exponentially to zero. The ergodicity of the solution and the stationary distribution can be obtained if the basic reproduction number Rp is bigger than 1, and the intensities of stochastic fluctuations are small enough. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.

Unit Stratified Sampling as a Tool for Approximation of Stochastic Optimization Problems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šmíd, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 19, č. 30 (2012), s. 153-169 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/11/0150; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic programming * approximation * stratified sampling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/smid-unit stratified sampling as a tool for approximation of stochastic optimization problems.pdf

Stochastic quantization and gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumpf, H.

1984-01-01

We give a preliminary account of the application of stochastic quantization to the gravitational field. We start in Section I from Nelson's formulation of quantum mechanics as Newtonian stochastic mechanics and only then introduce the Parisi-Wu stochastic quantization scheme on which all the later discussion will be based. In Section II we present a generalization of the scheme that is applicable to fields in physical (i.e. Lorentzian) space-time and treat the free linearized gravitational field in this manner. The most remarkable result of this is the noncausal propagation of conformal gravitons. Moreover the concept of stochastic gauge-fixing is introduced and a complete discussion of all the covariant gauges is given. A special symmetry relating two classes of covariant gauges is exhibited. Finally Section III contains some preliminary remarks on full nonlinear gravity. In particular we argue that in contrast to gauge fields the stochastic gravitational field cannot be transformed to a Gaussian process. (Author)

A Stochastic Programming Approach with Improved Multi-Criteria Scenario-Based Solution Method for Sustainable Reverse Logistics Design of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Yu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Today, the increased public concern about sustainable development and more stringent environmental regulations have become important driving forces for value recovery from end-of-life and end-of use products through reverse logistics. Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE contains both valuable components that need to be recycled and hazardous substances that have to be properly treated or disposed of, so the design of a reverse logistics system for sustainable treatment of WEEE is of paramount importance. This paper presents a stochastic mixed integer programming model for designing and planning a generic multi-source, multi-echelon, capacitated, and sustainable reverse logistics network for WEEE management under uncertainty. The model takes into account both economic efficiency and environmental impacts in decision-making, and the environmental impacts are evaluated in terms of carbon emissions. A multi-criteria two-stage scenario-based solution method is employed and further developed in this study for generating the optimal solution for the stochastic optimization problem. The proposed model and solution method are validated through a numerical experiment and sensitivity analyses presented later in this paper, and an analysis of the results is also given to provide a deep managerial insight into the application of the proposed stochastic optimization model.

Stochastic climate theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gottwald, G.A.; Crommelin, D.T.; Franzke, C.L.E.; Franzke, C.L.E.; O'Kane, T.J.

2017-01-01

In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations contain a Markov term, a memory term and a term suggestive of

Symbolic Computing in Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamiński Marcin

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The main aim is to present recent developments in applications of symbolic computing in probabilistic and stochastic analysis, and this is done using the example of the well-known MAPLE system. The key theoretical methods discussed are (i analytical derivations, (ii the classical Monte-Carlo simulation approach, (iii the stochastic perturbation technique, as well as (iv some semi-analytical approaches. It is demonstrated in particular how to engage the basic symbolic tools implemented in any system to derive the basic equations for the stochastic perturbation technique and how to make an efficient implementation of the semi-analytical methods using an automatic differentiation and integration provided by the computer algebra program itself. The second important illustration is probabilistic extension of the finite element and finite difference methods coded in MAPLE, showing how to solve boundary value problems with random parameters in the environment of symbolic computing. The response function method belongs to the third group, where interference of classical deterministic software with the non-linear fitting numerical techniques available in various symbolic environments is displayed. We recover in this context the probabilistic structural response in engineering systems and show how to solve partial differential equations including Gaussian randomness in their coefficients.

2–stage stochastic Runge–Kutta for stochastic delay differential equations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosli, Norhayati; Jusoh Awang, Rahimah [Faculty of Industrial Science and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300, Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Yeak, S. H. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

2015-05-15

This paper proposes a newly developed one-step derivative-free method, that is 2-stage stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK2) to approximate the solution of stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) with a constant time lag, r > 0. General formulation of stochastic Runge-Kutta for SDDEs is introduced and Stratonovich Taylor series expansion for numerical solution of SRK2 is presented. Local truncation error of SRK2 is measured by comparing the Stratonovich Taylor expansion of the exact solution with the computed solution. Numerical experiment is performed to assure the validity of the method in simulating the strong solution of SDDEs.

Dynamic stochastic accumulation model with application to pension savings management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melicherčik Igor

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a dynamic stochastic accumulation model for determining optimal decision between stock and bond investments during accumulation of pension savings. Stock prices are assumed to be driven by the geometric Brownian motion. Interest rates are modeled by means of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. The optimal decision as a solution to the corresponding dynamic stochastic program is a function of the duration of saving, the level of savings and the short rate. Qualitative and quantitative properties of the optimal solution are analyzed. The model is tested on the funded pillar of the Slovak pension system. The results are calculated for various risk preferences of a saver.

Space-time-modulated stochastic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Giona, Massimiliano

2017-10-01

Starting from the physical problem associated with the Lorentzian transformation of a Poisson-Kac process in inertial frames, the concept of space-time-modulated stochastic processes is introduced for processes possessing finite propagation velocity. This class of stochastic processes provides a two-way coupling between the stochastic perturbation acting on a physical observable and the evolution of the physical observable itself, which in turn influences the statistical properties of the stochastic perturbation during its evolution. The definition of space-time-modulated processes requires the introduction of two functions: a nonlinear amplitude modulation, controlling the intensity of the stochastic perturbation, and a time-horizon function, which modulates its statistical properties, providing irreducible feedback between the stochastic perturbation and the physical observable influenced by it. The latter property is the peculiar fingerprint of this class of models that makes them suitable for extension to generic curved-space times. Considering Poisson-Kac processes as prototypical examples of stochastic processes possessing finite propagation velocity, the balance equations for the probability density functions associated with their space-time modulations are derived. Several examples highlighting the peculiarities of space-time-modulated processes are thoroughly analyzed.

RES: Regularized Stochastic BFGS Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhtari, Aryan; Ribeiro, Alejandro

2014-12-01

RES, a regularized stochastic version of the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton method is proposed to solve convex optimization problems with stochastic objectives. The use of stochastic gradient descent algorithms is widespread, but the number of iterations required to approximate optimal arguments can be prohibitive in high dimensional problems. Application of second order methods, on the other hand, is impracticable because computation of objective function Hessian inverses incurs excessive computational cost. BFGS modifies gradient descent by introducing a Hessian approximation matrix computed from finite gradient differences. RES utilizes stochastic gradients in lieu of deterministic gradients for both, the determination of descent directions and the approximation of the objective function's curvature. Since stochastic gradients can be computed at manageable computational cost RES is realizable and retains the convergence rate advantages of its deterministic counterparts. Convergence results show that lower and upper bounds on the Hessian egeinvalues of the sample functions are sufficient to guarantee convergence to optimal arguments. Numerical experiments showcase reductions in convergence time relative to stochastic gradient descent algorithms and non-regularized stochastic versions of BFGS. An application of RES to the implementation of support vector machines is developed.

Elitism and Stochastic Dominance

OpenAIRE

Bazen, Stephen; Moyes, Patrick

2011-01-01

Stochastic dominance has typically been used with a special emphasis on risk and inequality reduction something captured by the concavity of the utility function in the expected utility model. We claim that the applicability of the stochastic dominance approach goes far beyond risk and inequality measurement provided suitable adpations be made. We apply in the paper the stochastic dominance approach to the measurment of elitism which may be considered the opposite of egalitarianism. While the...

Sufficient Stochastic Maximum Principle in a Regime-Switching Diffusion Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Donnelly, Catherine, E-mail: C.Donnelly@hw.ac.uk [Heriot-Watt University, Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics (United Kingdom)

2011-10-15

We prove a sufficient stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control of a regime-switching diffusion model. We show the connection to dynamic programming and we apply the result to a quadratic loss minimization problem, which can be used to solve a mean-variance portfolio selection problem.

Sufficient Stochastic Maximum Principle in a Regime-Switching Diffusion Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, Catherine

2011-01-01

We prove a sufficient stochastic maximum principle for the optimal control of a regime-switching diffusion model. We show the connection to dynamic programming and we apply the result to a quadratic loss minimization problem, which can be used to solve a mean-variance portfolio selection problem.

Stochastic analytic regularization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfaro, J.

1984-07-01

Stochastic regularization is reexamined, pointing out a restriction on its use due to a new type of divergence which is not present in the unregulated theory. Furthermore, we introduce a new form of stochastic regularization which permits the use of a minimal subtraction scheme to define the renormalized Green functions. (author)

On Stochastic Dependence

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Joerg M.

2018-01-01

The contrary of stochastic independence splits up into two cases: pairs of events being favourable or being unfavourable. Examples show that both notions have quite unexpected properties, some of them being opposite to intuition. For example, transitivity does not hold. Stochastic dependence is also useful to explain cases of Simpson's paradox.

Stochastic massless fields I: Integer spin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, S.C.

1981-04-01

Nelson's stochastic quantization scheme is applied to classical massless tensor potential in ''Coulomb'' gauge. The relationship between stochastic potential field in various gauges is discussed using the case of vector potential as an illustration. It is possible to identify the Euclidean tensor potential with the corresponding stochastic field in physical Minkowski space-time. Stochastic quantization of massless fields can also be carried out in terms of field strength tensors. An example of linearized stochastic gravitational field in vacuum is given. (author)

Dynamic-Programming Approaches to Single- and Multi-Stage Stochastic Knapsack Problems for Portfolio Optimization

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Khoo, Wai

1999-01-01

.... These problems model stochastic portfolio optimization problems (SPOPs) which assume deterministic unit weight, and normally distributed unit return with known mean and variance for each item type...

Distributed EMPC of multiple microgrids for coordinated stochastic energy management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Lin

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Reducing the system wide operating cost compared to the no-cooperation energy management strategy. • Maintaining the supply and demand balance within each microgrid. • Handling the uncertainties in both supply and demand. • Converting the stochastic optimization problems to standard quadratic and linear programming problems. • Achieving a good balance between control performance and computationally feasibility. - Abstract: The concept of multi-microgrids has the potential to improve the reliability and economic performance of a distribution system. To realize this potential, a coordination among multiple microgrids is needed. In this context, this paper presents a new distributed economic model predictive control scheme for the coordinated stochastic energy management of multi-microgrids. By optimally coordinating the operation of individual microgrids, this scheme maintains the system-wide supply and demand balance in an economical manner. Based on the probabilistic forecasts of renewable power generation and microgrid load, this scheme effectively handles the uncertainties in both supply and demand. Using the Chebyshev inequality and the Delta method, the corresponding stochastic optimization problems have been converted to quadratic and linear programs. The proposed scheme is evaluated on a large-scale case that includes ten interconnected microgrids. The results indicated that the proposed scheme successfully reduces the system wide operating cost, achieves the supply-demand balance in each microgrid, and brings the energy exchange between DNO and main grid to a predefined trajectory.

Separable programming theory and methods

CERN Document Server

Stefanov, Stefan M

2001-01-01

In this book, the author considers separable programming and, in particular, one of its important cases - convex separable programming Some general results are presented, techniques of approximating the separable problem by linear programming and dynamic programming are considered Convex separable programs subject to inequality equality constraint(s) and bounds on variables are also studied and iterative algorithms of polynomial complexity are proposed As an application, these algorithms are used in the implementation of stochastic quasigradient methods to some separable stochastic programs Numerical approximation with respect to I1 and I4 norms, as a convex separable nonsmooth unconstrained minimization problem, is considered as well Audience Advanced undergraduate and graduate students, mathematical programming operations research specialists

Stochastic processes inference theory

CERN Document Server

Rao, Malempati M

2014-01-01

This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

Path to Stochastic Stability: Comparative Analysis of Stochastic Learning Dynamics in Games

KAUST Repository

Jaleel, Hassan

2018-04-08

Stochastic stability is a popular solution concept for stochastic learning dynamics in games. However, a critical limitation of this solution concept is its inability to distinguish between different learning rules that lead to the same steady-state behavior. We address this limitation for the first time and develop a framework for the comparative analysis of stochastic learning dynamics with different update rules but same steady-state behavior. We present the framework in the context of two learning dynamics: Log-Linear Learning (LLL) and Metropolis Learning (ML). Although both of these dynamics have the same stochastically stable states, LLL and ML correspond to different behavioral models for decision making. Moreover, we demonstrate through an example setup of sensor coverage game that for each of these dynamics, the paths to stochastically stable states exhibit distinctive behaviors. Therefore, we propose multiple criteria to analyze and quantify the differences in the short and medium run behavior of stochastic learning dynamics. We derive and compare upper bounds on the expected hitting time to the set of Nash equilibria for both LLL and ML. For the medium to long-run behavior, we identify a set of tools from the theory of perturbed Markov chains that result in a hierarchical decomposition of the state space into collections of states called cycles. We compare LLL and ML based on the proposed criteria and develop invaluable insights into the comparative behavior of the two dynamics.

Quantum stochastics

CERN Document Server

Chang, Mou-Hsiung

2015-01-01

The classical probability theory initiated by Kolmogorov and its quantum counterpart, pioneered by von Neumann, were created at about the same time in the 1930s, but development of the quantum theory has trailed far behind. Although highly appealing, the quantum theory has a steep learning curve, requiring tools from both probability and analysis and a facility for combining the two viewpoints. This book is a systematic, self-contained account of the core of quantum probability and quantum stochastic processes for graduate students and researchers. The only assumed background is knowledge of the basic theory of Hilbert spaces, bounded linear operators, and classical Markov processes. From there, the book introduces additional tools from analysis, and then builds the quantum probability framework needed to support applications to quantum control and quantum information and communication. These include quantum noise, quantum stochastic calculus, stochastic quantum differential equations, quantum Markov semigrou...

Stochastic cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bisognano, J.; Leemann, C.

1982-03-01

Stochastic cooling is the damping of betatron oscillations and momentum spread of a particle beam by a feedback system. In its simplest form, a pickup electrode detects the transverse positions or momenta of particles in a storage ring, and the signal produced is amplified and applied downstream to a kicker. The time delay of the cable and electronics is designed to match the transit time of particles along the arc of the storage ring between the pickup and kicker so that an individual particle receives the amplified version of the signal it produced at the pick-up. If there were only a single particle in the ring, it is obvious that betatron oscillations and momentum offset could be damped. However, in addition to its own signal, a particle receives signals from other beam particles. In the limit of an infinite number of particles, no damping could be achieved; we have Liouville's theorem with constant density of the phase space fluid. For a finite, albeit large number of particles, there remains a residue of the single particle damping which is of practical use in accumulating low phase space density beams of particles such as antiprotons. It was the realization of this fact that led to the invention of stochastic cooling by S. van der Meer in 1968. Since its conception, stochastic cooling has been the subject of much theoretical and experimental work. The earliest experiments were performed at the ISR in 1974, with the subsequent ICE studies firmly establishing the stochastic cooling technique. This work directly led to the design and construction of the Antiproton Accumulator at CERN and the beginnings of p anti p colliding beam physics at the SPS. Experiments in stochastic cooling have been performed at Fermilab in collaboration with LBL, and a design is currently under development for a anti p accumulator for the Tevatron

Stochastic optimal control, forward-backward stochastic differential equations and the Schroedinger equation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paul, Wolfgang; Koeppe, Jeanette [Institut fuer Physik, Martin Luther Universitaet, 06099 Halle (Germany); Grecksch, Wilfried [Institut fuer Mathematik, Martin Luther Universitaet, 06099 Halle (Germany)

2016-07-01

The standard approach to solve a non-relativistic quantum problem is through analytical or numerical solution of the Schroedinger equation. We show a way to go around it. This way is based on the derivation of the Schroedinger equation from conservative diffusion processes and the establishment of (several) stochastic variational principles leading to the Schroedinger equation under the assumption of a kinematics described by Nelson's diffusion processes. Mathematically, the variational principle can be considered as a stochastic optimal control problem linked to the forward-backward stochastic differential equations of Nelson's stochastic mechanics. The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmann equation of this control problem is the Schroedinger equation. We present the mathematical background and how to turn it into a numerical scheme for analyzing a quantum system without using the Schroedinger equation and exemplify the approach for a simple 1d problem.

Stochastic reactive power market with volatility of wind power considering voltage security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kargarian, A.; Raoofat, M.

2011-01-01

While wind power generation is growing rapidly around the globe; its stochastic nature affects the system operation in many different aspects. In this paper, the impact of wind power volatility on the reactive power market is taken into account. The paper presents a novel stochastic method for optimal reactive power market clearing considering voltage security and volatile nature of the wind. The proposed optimization algorithm uses a multiobjective nonlinear programming technique to minimize market payment and simultaneously maximize voltage security margin. Considering a set of probable wind speeds, in the first stage, the proposed algorithm seeks to minimize expected system payment which is summation of reactive power payment and transmission loss cost. The object of the second stage is maximization of expected voltage security margin to increase the system loadability and security. Finally, in the last stage, a multiobjective function is presented to schedule the stochastic reactive power market using results of two previous stages. The proposed algorithm is applied to IEEE 14-bus test system. As a benchmark, Monte Carlo Simulation method is utilized to simulate the actual market of given period of time to evaluate results of the proposed algorithm, and satisfactory results are achieved. -- Highlights: →The paper proposes a new algorithm for stochastic reactive power market clearing. →The stochastic nature of the wind which impacts the system operation and market clearing process, is taken into account. →The paper suggests an expected voltage stability margin and optimizes it in conjunction with expected total market payment. →To clear the market with two mentioned objective functions, a three-stage multiobjective nonlinear programming is implemented. →Also, a simple method is suggested to determine a suitable priority coefficient between two individual objective functions.

Stochastic Analysis : A Series of Lectures

CERN Document Server

Dozzi, Marco; Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco

2015-01-01

This book presents in thirteen refereed survey articles an overview of modern activity in stochastic analysis, written by leading international experts. The topics addressed include stochastic fluid dynamics and regularization by noise of deterministic dynamical systems; stochastic partial differential equations driven by Gaussian or Lévy noise, including the relationship between parabolic equations and particle systems, and wave equations in a geometric framework; Malliavin calculus and applications to stochastic numerics; stochastic integration in Banach spaces; porous media-type equations; stochastic deformations of classical mechanics and Feynman integrals and stochastic differential equations with reflection. The articles are based on short courses given at the Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland, from January to June 2012. They offer a valuable resource not only for specialists, but also for other researchers and Ph.D. students in the fields o...

Integrated multiperiod power generation and transmission expansion planning with sustainability aspects in a stochastic environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seddighi, Amir Hossein; Ahmadi-Javid, Amir

2015-01-01

This paper presents a multistage stochastic programming model to address sustainable power generation and transmission expansion planning. The model incorporates uncertainties about future electricity demand, fuel prices, greenhouse gas emissions, as well as possible disruptions to which the power system is subject. A number of sustainability regulations and policies are considered to establish a framework for the social responsibility of the power system. The proposed model is applied to a real-world case, and several sensitivity analyses are carried out to provide managerial insights into different aspects of the model. The results emphasize the important role played by sustainability policies on the configuration of the power grid. - Highlights: • This paper considers integrated power generation and transmission expansion planning. • Sustainability aspects are incorporated into a multiperiod stochastic setting. • A stochastic mathematical programming model is developed to address the problem. • The model is applied to a real-world case and numerical studies are carried out

Stochastic Analysis with Financial Applications

CERN Document Server

Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

2011-01-01

Stochastic analysis has a variety of applications to biological systems as well as physical and engineering problems, and its applications to finance and insurance have bloomed exponentially in recent times. The goal of this book is to present a broad overview of the range of applications of stochastic analysis and some of its recent theoretical developments. This includes numerical simulation, error analysis, parameter estimation, as well as control and robustness properties for stochastic equations. This book also covers the areas of backward stochastic differential equations via the (non-li

Stochastic Power Control for Time-Varying Long-Term Fading Wireless Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charalambous Charalambos D

2006-01-01

Full Text Available A new time-varying (TV long-term fading (LTF channel model which captures both the space and time variations of wireless systems is developed. The proposed TV LTF model is based on a stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This model is more realistic than the static models usually encountered in the literature. It allows viewing the wireless channel as a dynamical system, thus enabling well-developed tools of adaptive and nonadaptive estimation and identification techniques to be applied to this class of problems. In contrast with the traditional models, the statistics of the proposed model are shown to be TV, but converge in steady state to their static counterparts. Moreover, optimal power control algorithms (PCAs based on the new model are proposed. A centralized PCA is shown to reduce to a simple linear programming problem if predictable power control strategies (PPCS are used. In addition, an iterative distributed stochastic PCA is used to solve for the optimization problem using stochastic approximations. The latter solely requires each mobile to know its received signal-to-interference ratio. Generalizations of the power control problem based on convex optimization techniques are provided if PPCS are not assumed. Numerical results show that there are potentially large gains to be achieved by using TV stochastic models, and the distributed stochastic PCA provides better power stability and consumption than the distributed deterministic PCA.

Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda J. S. Allen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems

CERN Document Server

Bujorianu, Luminita Manuela

2012-01-01

Stochastic reachability analysis (SRA) is a method of analyzing the behavior of control systems which mix discrete and continuous dynamics. For probabilistic discrete systems it has been shown to be a practical verification method but for stochastic hybrid systems it can be rather more. As a verification technique SRA can assess the safety and performance of, for example, autonomous systems, robot and aircraft path planning and multi-agent coordination but it can also be used for the adaptive control of such systems. Stochastic Reachability Analysis of Hybrid Systems is a self-contained and accessible introduction to this novel topic in the analysis and development of stochastic hybrid systems. Beginning with the relevant aspects of Markov models and introducing stochastic hybrid systems, the book then moves on to coverage of reachability analysis for stochastic hybrid systems. Following this build up, the core of the text first formally defines the concept of reachability in the stochastic framework and then...

Relevance of control theory to design and maintenance problems in time-variant reliability: The case of stochastic viability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rougé, Charles; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Deffuant, Guillaume

2014-01-01

The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to show that time-variant reliability and a branch of control theory called stochastic viability address similar problems with different points of view, and (2) to demonstrate the relevance of concepts and methods from stochastic viability in reliability problems. On the one hand, reliability aims at evaluating the probability of failure of a system subjected to uncertainty and stochasticity. On the other hand, viability aims at maintaining a controlled dynamical system within a survival set. When the dynamical system is stochastic, this work shows that a viability problem belongs to a specific class of design and maintenance problems in time-variant reliability. Dynamic programming, which is used for solving Markovian stochastic viability problems, then yields the set of design states for which there exists a maintenance strategy which guarantees reliability with a confidence level β for a given period of time T. Besides, it leads to a straightforward computation of the date of the first outcrossing, informing on when the system is most likely to fail. We illustrate this approach with a simple example of population dynamics, including a case where load increases with time. - Highlights: • Time-variant reliability tools cannot devise complex maintenance strategies. • Stochastic viability is a control theory that computes a probability of failure. • Some design and maintenance problems are stochastic viability problems. • Used in viability, dynamic programming can find reliable maintenance actions. • Confronting reliability and control theories such as viability is promising

Fuzzy stochastic damage mechanics (FSDM based on fuzzy auto-adaptive control theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ya-jun Wang

2012-06-01

Full Text Available In order to fully interpret and describe damage mechanics, the origin and development of fuzzy stochastic damage mechanics were introduced based on the analysis of the harmony of damage, probability, and fuzzy membership in the interval of [0,1]. In a complete normed linear space, it was proven that a generalized damage field can be simulated through β probability distribution. Three kinds of fuzzy behaviors of damage variables were formulated and explained through analysis of the generalized uncertainty of damage variables and the establishment of a fuzzy functional expression. Corresponding fuzzy mapping distributions, namely, the half-depressed distribution, swing distribution, and combined swing distribution, which can simulate varying fuzzy evolution in diverse stochastic damage situations, were set up. Furthermore, through demonstration of the generalized probabilistic characteristics of damage variables, the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of fuzzy stochastic damage variables, which show β probability distribution, were modified according to the expansion principle. The three-dimensional fuzzy stochastic damage mechanical behaviors of the Longtan rolled-concrete dam were examined with the self-developed fuzzy stochastic damage finite element program. The statistical correlation and non-normality of random field parameters were considered comprehensively in the fuzzy stochastic damage model described in this paper. The results show that an initial damage field based on the comprehensive statistical evaluation helps to avoid many difficulties in the establishment of experiments and numerical algorithms for damage mechanics analysis.

Homogenization of the stochastic Navier–Stokes equation with a stochastic slip boundary condition

KAUST Repository

Bessaih, Hakima

2015-11-02

The two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equation in a perforated domain with a dynamical slip boundary condition is considered. We assume that the dynamic is driven by a stochastic perturbation on the interior of the domain and another stochastic perturbation on the boundaries of the holes. We consider a scaling (ᵋ for the viscosity and 1 for the density) that will lead to a time-dependent limit problem. However, the noncritical scaling (ᵋ, β > 1) is considered in front of the nonlinear term. The homogenized system in the limit is obtained as a Darcy’s law with memory with two permeabilities and an extra term that is due to the stochastic perturbation on the boundary of the holes. The nonhomogeneity on the boundary contains a stochastic part that yields in the limit an additional term in the Darcy’s law. We use the two-scale convergence method after extending the solution with 0 inside the holes to pass to the limit. By Itô stochastic calculus, we get uniform estimates on the solution in appropriate spaces. Due to the stochastic integral, the pressure that appears in the variational formulation does not have enough regularity in time. This fact made us rely only on the variational formulation for the passage to the limit on the solution. We obtain a variational formulation for the limit that is solution of a Stokes system with two pressures. This two-scale limit gives rise to three cell problems, two of them give the permeabilities while the third one gives an extra term in the Darcy’s law due to the stochastic perturbation on the boundary of the holes.

Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-01

AFRL-RW-EG-TR-2015-108 Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos Douglas V. Nance Air Force Research...COVERED (From - To) 20-04-2015 – 07-08-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos ...This expository report discusses fundamental aspects of the polynomial chaos method for representing the properties of second order stochastic

Remarks on stochastic acceleration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graeff, P.

1982-12-01

Stochastic acceleration and turbulent diffusion are strong turbulence problems since no expansion parameter exists. Hence the problem of finding rigorous results is of major interest both for checking approximations and for reference models. Since we have found a way of constructing such models in the turbulent diffusion case the question of the extension to stochastic acceleration now arises. The paper offers some possibilities illustrated by the case of 'stochastic free fall' which may be particularly interesting in the context of linear response theory. (orig.)

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, H.

2002-01-01

This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature

Stochastic parameterizing manifolds and non-Markovian reduced equations stochastic manifolds for nonlinear SPDEs II

CERN Document Server

Chekroun, Mickaël D; Wang, Shouhong

2015-01-01

In this second volume, a general approach is developed to provide approximate parameterizations of the "small" scales by the "large" ones for a broad class of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). This is accomplished via the concept of parameterizing manifolds (PMs), which are stochastic manifolds that improve, for a given realization of the noise, in mean square error the partial knowledge of the full SPDE solution when compared to its projection onto some resolved modes. Backward-forward systems are designed to give access to such PMs in practice. The key idea consists of representing the modes with high wave numbers as a pullback limit depending on the time-history of the modes with low wave numbers. Non-Markovian stochastic reduced systems are then derived based on such a PM approach. The reduced systems take the form of stochastic differential equations involving random coefficients that convey memory effects. The theory is illustrated on a stochastic Burgers-type equation.

Stochastic spin-one massive field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, S.C.

1984-01-01

Stochastic quantization schemes of Nelson and Parisi and Wu are applied to a spin-one massive field. Unlike the scalar case Nelson's stochastic spin-one massive field cannot be identified with the corresponding euclidean field even if the fourth component of the euclidean coordinate is taken as equal to the real physical time. In the Parisi-Wu quantization scheme the stochastic Proca vector field has a similar property as the scalar field; which has an asymptotically stationary part and a transient part. The large equal-time limit of the expectation values of the stochastic Proca field are equal to the expectation values of the corresponding euclidean field. In the Stueckelberg formalism the Parisi-Wu scheme gives rise to a stochastic vector field which differs from the massless gauge field in that the gauge cannot be fixed by the choice of boundary condition. (orig.)

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for a Stochastic Differential Game of a Mean-Field Type

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hosking, John Joseph Absalom, E-mail: j.j.a.hosking@cma.uio.no [University of Oslo, Centre of Mathematics for Applications (CMA) (Norway)

2012-12-15

We construct a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) which provides necessary conditions for the existence of Nash equilibria in a certain form of N-agent stochastic differential game (SDG) of a mean-field type. The information structure considered for the SDG is of a possible asymmetric and partial type. To prove our SMP we take an approach based on spike-variations and adjoint representation techniques, analogous to that of S. Peng (SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4):966-979, 1990) in the optimal stochastic control context. In our proof we apply adjoint representation procedures at three points. The first-order adjoint processes are defined as solutions to certain mean-field backward stochastic differential equations, and second-order adjoint processes of a first type are defined as solutions to certain backward stochastic differential equations. Second-order adjoint processes of a second type are defined as solutions of certain backward stochastic equations of a type that we introduce in this paper, and which we term conditional mean-field backward stochastic differential equations. From the resulting representations, we show that the terms relating to these second-order adjoint processes of the second type are of an order such that they do not appear in our final SMP equations. A comparable situation exists in an article by R. Buckdahn, B. Djehiche, and J. Li (Appl. Math. Optim. 64(2):197-216, 2011) that constructs a SMP for a mean-field type optimal stochastic control problem; however, the approach we take of using these second-order adjoint processes of a second type to deal with the type of terms that we refer to as the second form of quadratic-type terms represents an alternative to a development, to our setting, of the approach used in their article for their analogous type of term.

A Stochastic Maximum Principle for a Stochastic Differential Game of a Mean-Field Type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosking, John Joseph Absalom

2012-01-01

We construct a stochastic maximum principle (SMP) which provides necessary conditions for the existence of Nash equilibria in a certain form of N-agent stochastic differential game (SDG) of a mean-field type. The information structure considered for the SDG is of a possible asymmetric and partial type. To prove our SMP we take an approach based on spike-variations and adjoint representation techniques, analogous to that of S. Peng (SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4):966–979, 1990) in the optimal stochastic control context. In our proof we apply adjoint representation procedures at three points. The first-order adjoint processes are defined as solutions to certain mean-field backward stochastic differential equations, and second-order adjoint processes of a first type are defined as solutions to certain backward stochastic differential equations. Second-order adjoint processes of a second type are defined as solutions of certain backward stochastic equations of a type that we introduce in this paper, and which we term conditional mean-field backward stochastic differential equations. From the resulting representations, we show that the terms relating to these second-order adjoint processes of the second type are of an order such that they do not appear in our final SMP equations. A comparable situation exists in an article by R. Buckdahn, B. Djehiche, and J. Li (Appl. Math. Optim. 64(2):197–216, 2011) that constructs a SMP for a mean-field type optimal stochastic control problem; however, the approach we take of using these second-order adjoint processes of a second type to deal with the type of terms that we refer to as the second form of quadratic-type terms represents an alternative to a development, to our setting, of the approach used in their article for their analogous type of term.

Stochastic TDHF and the Boltzman-Langevin equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suraud, E.; Reinhard, P.G.

1991-01-01

Outgoing from a time-dependent theory of correlations, we present a stochastic differential equation for the propagation of ensembles of Slater determinants, called Stochastic Time-Dependent Hartree-Fock (Stochastic TDHF). These ensembles are allowed to develop large fluctuations in the Hartree-Fock mean fields. An alternative stochastic differential equation, the Boltzmann-Langevin equation, can be derived from Stochastic TDHF by averaging over subensembles with small fluctuations

XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes

CERN Document Server

Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo

2015-01-01

This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...

Stochastic resonance in a stochastic bistable system with additive noises and square–wave signal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Guo; Xiang-Dong, Luo; Shao-Fu, Li; Yu-Rong, Zhou

2010-01-01

This paper considers the stochastic resonance in a stochastic bistable system driven by a periodic square-wave signal and a static force as well as by additive white noise and dichotomous noise from the viewpoint of signal-to-noise ratio. It finds that the signal-to-noise ratio appears as stochastic resonance behaviour when it is plotted as a function of the noise strength of the white noise and dichotomous noise, as a function of the system parameters, or as a function of the static force. Moreover, the influence of the strength of the stochastic potential force and the correlation rate of the dichotomous noise on the signal-to-noise ratio is investigated. (general)

Stochastic quantization of Proca field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, S.C.

1981-03-01

We discuss the complications that arise in the application of Nelson's stochastic quantization scheme to classical Proca field. One consistent way to obtain spin-one massive stochastic field is given. It is found that the result of Guerra et al on the connection between ground state stochastic field and the corresponding Euclidean-Markov field extends to the spin-one case. (author)

Stochastic optimization methods

CERN Document Server

Marti, Kurt

2005-01-01

Optimization problems arising in practice involve random parameters. For the computation of robust optimal solutions, i.e., optimal solutions being insensitive with respect to random parameter variations, deterministic substitute problems are needed. Based on the distribution of the random data, and using decision theoretical concepts, optimization problems under stochastic uncertainty are converted into deterministic substitute problems. Due to the occurring probabilities and expectations, approximative solution techniques must be applied. Deterministic and stochastic approximation methods and their analytical properties are provided: Taylor expansion, regression and response surface methods, probability inequalities, First Order Reliability Methods, convex approximation/deterministic descent directions/efficient points, stochastic approximation methods, differentiation of probability and mean value functions. Convergence results of the resulting iterative solution procedures are given.

Phenomenology of stochastic exponential growth

Science.gov (United States)

Pirjol, Dan; Jafarpour, Farshid; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

2017-06-01

Stochastic exponential growth is observed in a variety of contexts, including molecular autocatalysis, nuclear fission, population growth, inflation of the universe, viral social media posts, and financial markets. Yet literature on modeling the phenomenology of these stochastic dynamics has predominantly focused on one model, geometric Brownian motion (GBM), which can be described as the solution of a Langevin equation with linear drift and linear multiplicative noise. Using recent experimental results on stochastic exponential growth of individual bacterial cell sizes, we motivate the need for a more general class of phenomenological models of stochastic exponential growth, which are consistent with the observation that the mean-rescaled distributions are approximately stationary at long times. We show that this behavior is not consistent with GBM, instead it is consistent with power-law multiplicative noise with positive fractional powers. Therefore, we consider this general class of phenomenological models for stochastic exponential growth, provide analytical solutions, and identify the important dimensionless combination of model parameters, which determines the shape of the mean-rescaled distribution. We also provide a prescription for robustly inferring model parameters from experimentally observed stochastic growth trajectories.

The ESPAT tool: a general-purpose DSS shell for solving stochastic optimization problems in complex river-aquifer systems

Science.gov (United States)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Tilmant, Amaury

2015-04-01

Stochastic programming methods are better suited to deal with the inherent uncertainty of inflow time series in water resource management. However, one of the most important hurdles in their use in practical implementations is the lack of generalized Decision Support System (DSS) shells, usually based on a deterministic approach. The purpose of this contribution is to present a general-purpose DSS shell, named Explicit Stochastic Programming Advanced Tool (ESPAT), able to build and solve stochastic programming problems for most water resource systems. It implements a hydro-economic approach, optimizing the total system benefits as the sum of the benefits obtained by each user. It has been coded using GAMS, and implements a Microsoft Excel interface with a GAMS-Excel link that allows the user to introduce the required data and recover the results. Therefore, no GAMS skills are required to run the program. The tool is divided into four modules according to its capabilities: 1) the ESPATR module, which performs stochastic optimization procedures in surface water systems using a Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) approach; 2) the ESPAT_RA module, which optimizes coupled surface-groundwater systems using a modified SDDP approach; 3) the ESPAT_SDP module, capable of performing stochastic optimization procedures in small-size surface systems using a standard SDP approach; and 4) the ESPAT_DET module, which implements a deterministic programming procedure using non-linear programming, able to solve deterministic optimization problems in complex surface-groundwater river basins. The case study of the Mijares river basin (Spain) is used to illustrate the method. It consists in two reservoirs in series, one aquifer and four agricultural demand sites currently managed using historical (XIV century) rights, which give priority to the most traditional irrigation district over the XX century agricultural developments. Its size makes it possible to use either the SDP or

Optimal Control for Stochastic Delay Evolution Equations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meng, Qingxin, E-mail: mqx@hutc.zj.cn [Huzhou University, Department of Mathematical Sciences (China); Shen, Yang, E-mail: skyshen87@gmail.com [York University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Canada)

2016-08-15

In this paper, we investigate a class of infinite-dimensional optimal control problems, where the state equation is given by a stochastic delay evolution equation with random coefficients, and the corresponding adjoint equation is given by an anticipated backward stochastic evolution equation. We first prove the continuous dependence theorems for stochastic delay evolution equations and anticipated backward stochastic evolution equations, and show the existence and uniqueness of solutions to anticipated backward stochastic evolution equations. Then we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality of the control problem in the form of Pontryagin’s maximum principles. To illustrate the theoretical results, we apply stochastic maximum principles to study two examples, an infinite-dimensional linear-quadratic control problem with delay and an optimal control of a Dirichlet problem for a stochastic partial differential equation with delay. Further applications of the two examples to a Cauchy problem for a controlled linear stochastic partial differential equation and an optimal harvesting problem are also considered.

Introduction to stochastic calculus

CERN Document Server

Karandikar, Rajeeva L

2018-01-01

This book sheds new light on stochastic calculus, the branch of mathematics that is most widely applied in financial engineering and mathematical finance. The first book to introduce pathwise formulae for the stochastic integral, it provides a simple but rigorous treatment of the subject, including a range of advanced topics. The book discusses in-depth topics such as quadratic variation, Ito formula, and Emery topology. The authors briefly address continuous semi-martingales to obtain growth estimates and study solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) by using the technique of random time change. Later, by using Metivier–Pellumail inequality, the solutions to SDEs driven by general semi-martingales are discussed. The connection of the theory with mathematical finance is briefly discussed and the book has extensive treatment on the representation of martingales as stochastic integrals and a second fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Intended for undergraduate- and beginning graduate-level stud...

Brownian motion, martingales, and stochastic calculus

CERN Document Server

Le Gall, Jean-François

2016-01-01

This book offers a rigorous and self-contained presentation of stochastic integration and stochastic calculus within the general framework of continuous semimartingales. The main tools of stochastic calculus, including Itô’s formula, the optional stopping theorem and Girsanov’s theorem, are treated in detail alongside many illustrative examples. The book also contains an introduction to Markov processes, with applications to solutions of stochastic differential equations and to connections between Brownian motion and partial differential equations. The theory of local times of semimartingales is discussed in the last chapter. Since its invention by Itô, stochastic calculus has proven to be one of the most important techniques of modern probability theory, and has been used in the most recent theoretical advances as well as in applications to other fields such as mathematical finance. Brownian Motion, Martingales, and Stochastic Calculus provides a strong theoretical background to the reader interested i...

Stochastic line motion and stochastic flux conservation for nonideal hydromagnetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyink, Gregory L.

2009-01-01

We prove that smooth solutions of nonideal (viscous and resistive) incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations satisfy a stochastic law of flux conservation. This property implies that the magnetic flux through a surface is equal to the average of the magnetic fluxes through an ensemble of surfaces advected backward in time by the plasma velocity perturbed with a random white noise. Our result is an analog of the well-known Alfven theorem of ideal MHD and is valid for any value of the magnetic Prandtl number. A second stochastic conservation law is shown to hold at unit Prandtl number, a random version of the generalized Kelvin theorem derived by Bekenstein and Oron for ideal MHD. These stochastic conservation laws are not only shown to be consequences of the nonideal MHD equations but are proved in fact to be equivalent to those equations. We derive similar results for two more refined hydromagnetic models, Hall MHD and the two-fluid plasma model, still assuming incompressible velocities and isotropic transport coefficients. Finally, we use these results to discuss briefly the infinite-Reynolds-number limit of hydromagnetic turbulence and to support the conjecture that flux conservation remains stochastic in that limit.

Stochastic foundations of undulatory transport phenomena: generalized Poisson-Kac processes—part III extensions and applications to kinetic theory and transport

Science.gov (United States)

Giona, Massimiliano; Brasiello, Antonio; Crescitelli, Silvestro

2017-08-01

This third part extends the theory of Generalized Poisson-Kac (GPK) processes to nonlinear stochastic models and to a continuum of states. Nonlinearity is treated in two ways: (i) as a dependence of the parameters (intensity of the stochastic velocity, transition rates) of the stochastic perturbation on the state variable, similarly to the case of nonlinear Langevin equations, and (ii) as the dependence of the stochastic microdynamic equations of motion on the statistical description of the process itself (nonlinear Fokker-Planck-Kac models). Several numerical and physical examples illustrate the theory. Gathering nonlinearity and a continuum of states, GPK theory provides a stochastic derivation of the nonlinear Boltzmann equation, furnishing a positive answer to the Kac’s program in kinetic theory. The transition from stochastic microdynamics to transport theory within the framework of the GPK paradigm is also addressed.

Stochastic foundations of undulatory transport phenomena: generalized Poisson–Kac processes—part III extensions and applications to kinetic theory and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giona, Massimiliano; Brasiello, Antonio; Crescitelli, Silvestro

2017-01-01

This third part extends the theory of Generalized Poisson–Kac (GPK) processes to nonlinear stochastic models and to a continuum of states. Nonlinearity is treated in two ways: (i) as a dependence of the parameters (intensity of the stochastic velocity, transition rates) of the stochastic perturbation on the state variable, similarly to the case of nonlinear Langevin equations, and (ii) as the dependence of the stochastic microdynamic equations of motion on the statistical description of the process itself (nonlinear Fokker–Planck–Kac models). Several numerical and physical examples illustrate the theory. Gathering nonlinearity and a continuum of states, GPK theory provides a stochastic derivation of the nonlinear Boltzmann equation, furnishing a positive answer to the Kac’s program in kinetic theory. The transition from stochastic microdynamics to transport theory within the framework of the GPK paradigm is also addressed. (paper)

Brownian motion and stochastic calculus

CERN Document Server

Karatzas, Ioannis

1998-01-01

This book is designed as a text for graduate courses in stochastic processes. It is written for readers familiar with measure-theoretic probability and discrete-time processes who wish to explore stochastic processes in continuous time. The vehicle chosen for this exposition is Brownian motion, which is presented as the canonical example of both a martingale and a Markov process with continuous paths. In this context, the theory of stochastic integration and stochastic calculus is developed. The power of this calculus is illustrated by results concerning representations of martingales and change of measure on Wiener space, and these in turn permit a presentation of recent advances in financial economics (option pricing and consumption/investment optimization). This book contains a detailed discussion of weak and strong solutions of stochastic differential equations and a study of local time for semimartingales, with special emphasis on the theory of Brownian local time. The text is complemented by a large num...

Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M; Moraes, A

2015-06-28

This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators

Science.gov (United States)

Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.; Moraes, A.

2015-06-01

This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Le Maître, O. P., E-mail: olm@limsi.fr [LIMSI-CNRS, UPR 3251, Orsay (France); Knio, O. M., E-mail: knio@duke.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Moraes, A., E-mail: alvaro.moraesgutierrez@kaust.edu.sa [King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)

2015-06-28

This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators

KAUST Repository

Le Maî tre, O. P.; Knio, O. M.; Moraes, Alvaro

2015-01-01

This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

Stochastic synaptic plasticity with memristor crossbar arrays

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan

2016-11-01

Memristive devices have been shown to exhibit slow and stochastic resistive switching behavior under low-voltage, low-current operating conditions. Here we explore such mechanisms to emulate stochastic plasticity in memristor crossbar synapse arrays. Interfaced with integrate-and-fire spiking neurons, the memristive synapse arrays are capable of implementing stochastic forms of spike-timing dependent plasticity which parallel mean-rate models of stochastic learning with binary synapses. We present theory and experiments with spike-based stochastic learning in memristor crossbar arrays, including simplified modeling as well as detailed physical simulation of memristor stochastic resistive switching characteristics due to voltage and current induced filament formation and collapse. © 2016 IEEE.

Stochastic synaptic plasticity with memristor crossbar arrays

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan; Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Neftci, Emre; Cauwenberghs, Gert; Salama, Khaled N.

2016-01-01

Memristive devices have been shown to exhibit slow and stochastic resistive switching behavior under low-voltage, low-current operating conditions. Here we explore such mechanisms to emulate stochastic plasticity in memristor crossbar synapse arrays. Interfaced with integrate-and-fire spiking neurons, the memristive synapse arrays are capable of implementing stochastic forms of spike-timing dependent plasticity which parallel mean-rate models of stochastic learning with binary synapses. We present theory and experiments with spike-based stochastic learning in memristor crossbar arrays, including simplified modeling as well as detailed physical simulation of memristor stochastic resistive switching characteristics due to voltage and current induced filament formation and collapse. © 2016 IEEE.

Stochastic optimal control of single neuron spike trains

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iolov, Alexandre; Ditlevsen, Susanne; Longtin, Andrë

2014-01-01

stimulation of a neuron to achieve a target spike train under the physiological constraint to not damage tissue. Approach. We pose a stochastic optimal control problem to precisely specify the spike times in a leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model of a neuron with noise assumed to be of intrinsic or synaptic...... origin. In particular, we allow for the noise to be of arbitrary intensity. The optimal control problem is solved using dynamic programming when the controller has access to the voltage (closed-loop control), and using a maximum principle for the transition density when the controller only has access...... to the spike times (open-loop control). Main results. We have developed a stochastic optimal control algorithm to obtain precise spike times. It is applicable in both the supra-threshold and sub-threshold regimes, under open-loop and closed-loop conditions and with an arbitrary noise intensity; the accuracy...

Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2015-01-01

This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Melsa, James L

2013-01-01

Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

Stochastic modeling

CERN Document Server

Lanchier, Nicolas

2017-01-01

Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the ...

Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

2008-01-01

In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

Stochastic Systems Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation

CERN Document Server

Grigoriu, Mircea

2012-01-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of both properties of physical systems and the inputs to these systems that needs to be quantified for cost effective and reliable designs. The states of these systems satisfy equations with random entries, referred to as stochastic equations, so that they are random functions of time and/or space. The solution of stochastic equations poses notable technical difficulties that are frequently circumvented by heuristic assumptions at the expense of accuracy and rigor. The main objective of Stochastic Systems is to promoting the development of accurate and efficient methods for solving stochastic equations and to foster interactions between engineers, scientists, and mathematicians. To achieve these objectives Stochastic Systems presents: ·         A clear and brief review of essential concepts on probability theory, random functions, stochastic calculus, Monte Carlo simulation, and functional analysis   ·          Probabilistic models for random variables an...

Stochastic-field cavitation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

2013-01-01

Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian “particles” or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations

Stochastic-field cavitation model

Science.gov (United States)

Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

2013-07-01

Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

A generic methodology for the optimisation of sewer systems using stochastic programming and self-optimizing control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maurico-Iglesias, Miguel; Castro, Ignacio Montero; Mollerup, Ane Loft

2015-01-01

. Such controller is aimed at keeping the system close to the optimal performance, thanks to an optimal selection of controlled variables. The definition of an optimal performance was carried out by a two-stage optimisation (stochastic and deterministic) to take into account both the overflow during the current......The design of sewer system control is a complex task given the large size of the sewer networks, the transient dynamics of the water flow and the stochastic nature of rainfall. This contribution presents a generic methodology for the design of a self-optimising controller in sewer systems...

An Optimization Model for Kardeh Reservoir Operation Using Interval-Parameter, Multi-stage, Stochastic Programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Rastegaripour

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The present study investigates water allocation of Kardeh Reservoir to domestic and agricultural users using an Interval Parameter, Multi-stage, Stochastic Programming (IMSLP under uncertainty. The advantages of the method include its dynamics nature, use of a pre-defined policy in its optimization process, and the use of interval parameter and probability under uncertainty conditions. Additionally, it offers different decision-making alternatives for different scenarios of water shortage. The required data were collected from Khorasan Razavi Regional Water Organization and from the Water and Wastewater Co. for the period 1988-2007. Results showed that, under the worst conditions, the water deficits expected to occur for each of the next 3 years will be 1.9, 2.55, and 3.11 million cubic meters for the domestic use and 0.22, 0.32, 0.75 million cubic meters for irrigation. Approximate reductions of 0.5, 0.7, and 1 million cubic meters in the monthly consumption of the urban community and enhanced irrigation efficiencies of about 6, 11, and 20% in the agricultural sector are recommended as approaches for combating the water shortage over the next 3 years.

Stochastic Pi-calculus Revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cardelli, Luca; Mardare, Radu Iulian

2013-01-01

We develop a version of stochastic Pi-calculus with a semantics based on measure theory. We dene the behaviour of a process in a rate environment using measures over the measurable space of processes induced by structural congruence. We extend the stochastic bisimulation to include the concept of...

Stochastic Methods Applied to Power System Operations with Renewable Energy: A Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Z. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Liu, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Austin, TX (United States); Botterud, A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-08-01

Renewable energy resources have been rapidly integrated into power systems in many parts of the world, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable supply of electricity. Wind and solar resources also introduce new challenges for system operations and planning in terms of economics and reliability because of their variability and uncertainty. Operational strategies based on stochastic optimization have been developed recently to address these challenges. In general terms, these stochastic strategies either embed uncertainties into the scheduling formulations (e.g., the unit commitment [UC] problem) in probabilistic forms or develop more appropriate operating reserve strategies to take advantage of advanced forecasting techniques. Other approaches to address uncertainty are also proposed, where operational feasibility is ensured within an uncertainty set of forecasting intervals. In this report, a comprehensive review is conducted to present the state of the art through Spring 2015 in the area of stochastic methods applied to power system operations with high penetration of renewable energy. Chapters 1 and 2 give a brief introduction and overview of power system and electricity market operations, as well as the impact of renewable energy and how this impact is typically considered in modeling tools. Chapter 3 reviews relevant literature on operating reserves and specifically probabilistic methods to estimate the need for system reserve requirements. Chapter 4 looks at stochastic programming formulations of the UC and economic dispatch (ED) problems, highlighting benefits reported in the literature as well as recent industry developments. Chapter 5 briefly introduces alternative formulations of UC under uncertainty, such as robust, chance-constrained, and interval programming. Finally, in Chapter 6, we conclude with the main observations from our review and important directions for future work.

Stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Veraart, Almut

This paper introduces the concept of stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time and, hence, extends standard stochastic volatility (SV) models to allow for an additional source of randomness associated with greater variability in the data. We discuss how stochastic volatility...... of volatility can be defined both non-parametrically, where we link it to the quadratic variation of the stochastic variance process, and parametrically, where we propose two new SV models which allow for stochastic volatility of volatility. In addition, we show that volatility of volatility can be estimated...

Quantum stochastic calculus associated with quadratic quantum noises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ji, Un Cig; Sinha, Kalyan B.

2016-01-01

We first study a class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes induced by the generators of a six dimensional non-solvable Lie †-algebra consisting of all linear combinations of the generalized Gross Laplacian and its adjoint, annihilation operator, creation operator, conservation, and time, and then we study the quantum stochastic integrals associated with the class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes, and the quantum Itô formula is revisited. The existence and uniqueness of solution of a quantum stochastic differential equation is proved. The unitarity conditions of solutions of quantum stochastic differential equations associated with the fundamental processes are examined. The quantum stochastic calculus extends the Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus

Quantum stochastic calculus associated with quadratic quantum noises

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ji, Un Cig, E-mail: uncigji@chungbuk.ac.kr [Department of Mathematics, Research Institute of Mathematical Finance, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju, Chungbuk 28644 (Korea, Republic of); Sinha, Kalyan B., E-mail: kbs-jaya@yahoo.co.in [Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Jakkur, Bangalore-64, India and Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-12 (India)

2016-02-15

We first study a class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes induced by the generators of a six dimensional non-solvable Lie †-algebra consisting of all linear combinations of the generalized Gross Laplacian and its adjoint, annihilation operator, creation operator, conservation, and time, and then we study the quantum stochastic integrals associated with the class of fundamental quantum stochastic processes, and the quantum Itô formula is revisited. The existence and uniqueness of solution of a quantum stochastic differential equation is proved. The unitarity conditions of solutions of quantum stochastic differential equations associated with the fundamental processes are examined. The quantum stochastic calculus extends the Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus.

Set-Valued Stochastic Lebesque Integral and Representation Theorems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jungang Li

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we shall firstly illustrate why we should introduce set-valued stochastic integrals, and then we shall discuss some properties of set-valued stochastic processes and the relation between a set-valued stochastic process and its selection set. After recalling the Aumann type definition of stochastic integral, we shall introduce a new definition of Lebesgue integral of a set-valued stochastic process with respect to the time t . Finally we shall prove the presentation theorem of set-valued stochastic integral and dis- cuss further properties that will be useful to study set-valued stochastic differential equations with their applications.

Instantaneous stochastic perturbation theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lüscher, Martin

2015-01-01

A form of stochastic perturbation theory is described, where the representative stochastic fields are generated instantaneously rather than through a Markov process. The correctness of the procedure is established to all orders of the expansion and for a wide class of field theories that includes all common formulations of lattice QCD.

A retrodictive stochastic simulation algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaughan, T.G.; Drummond, P.D.; Drummond, A.J.

2010-01-01

In this paper we describe a simple method for inferring the initial states of systems evolving stochastically according to master equations, given knowledge of the final states. This is achieved through the use of a retrodictive stochastic simulation algorithm which complements the usual predictive stochastic simulation approach. We demonstrate the utility of this new algorithm by applying it to example problems, including the derivation of likely ancestral states of a gene sequence given a Markovian model of genetic mutation.

Stochastic processes and quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klauder, J.R.

1975-01-01

The author analyses a variety of stochastic processes, namely real time diffusion phenomena, which are analogues of imaginary time quantum theory and convariant imaginary time quantum field theory. He elaborates some standard properties involving probability measures and stochastic variables and considers a simple class of examples. Finally he develops the fact that certain stochastic theories actually exhibit divergences that simulate those of covariant quantum field theory and presents examples of both renormaizable and unrenormalizable behavior. (V.J.C.)

Stochastic numerical methods an introduction for students and scientists

CERN Document Server

Toral, Raul

2014-01-01

Stochastic Numerical Methods introduces at Master level the numerical methods that use probability or stochastic concepts to analyze random processes. The book aims at being rather general and is addressed at students of natural sciences (Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics, Biology, etc.) and Engineering, but also social sciences (Economy, Sociology, etc.) where some of the techniques have been used recently to numerically simulate different agent-based models. Examples included in the book range from phase-transitions and critical phenomena, including details of data analysis (extraction of critical exponents, finite-size effects, etc.), to population dynamics, interfacial growth, chemical reactions, etc. Program listings are integrated in the discussion of numerical algorithms to facilitate their understanding. From the contents: Review of Probability ConceptsMonte Carlo IntegrationGeneration of Uniform and Non-uniformRandom Numbers: Non-correlated ValuesDynamical MethodsApplications to Statistical MechanicsIn...

Stochastic Still Water Response Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

2002-01-01

In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model is...... out that an important parameter of the stochastic cargo field model is the mean number of containers delivered by each customer.......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... is to establish the stochastic load field conditional on a given draft and trim of the vessel. The model contributes to a realistic modelling of the stochastic load processes to be used in a reliability evaluation of the ship hull. Emphasis is given to container vessels. The formulation of the model for obtaining...

Stochastic quantization and topological theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fainberg, V.Y.; Subbotin, A.V.; Kuznetsov, A.N.

1992-01-01

In the last two years topological quantum field theories (TQFT) have attached much attention. This paper reports that from the very beginning it was realized that due to a peculiar BRST-like symmetry these models admitted so-called Nicolai mapping: the Nicolai variables, in terms of which actions of the theories become gaussian, are nothing but (anti-) selfduality conditions or their generalizations. This fact became a starting point in the quest of possible stochastic interpretation to topological field theories. The reasons behind were quite simple and included, in particular, the well-known relations between stochastic processes and supersymmetry. The main goal would have been achieved, if it were possible to construct stochastic processes governed by Langevin or Fokker-Planck equations in a real Euclidean time leading to TQFT's path integrals (equivalently: to reformulate TQFTs as non-equilibrium phase dynamics of stochastic processes). Further on, if it would appear that these processes correspond to the stochastic quantization of theories of some definite kind, one could expect (d + 1)-dimensional TQFTs to share some common properties with d-dimensional ones

Stochastic quantization of Einstein gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumpf, H.

1986-01-01

We determine a one-parameter family of covariant Langevin equations for the metric tensor of general relativity corresponding to DeWitt's one-parameter family of supermetrics. The stochastic source term in these equations can be expressed in terms of a Gaussian white noise upon the introduction of a stochastic tetrad field. The only physically acceptable resolution of a mathematical ambiguity in the ansatz for the source term is the adoption of Ito's calculus. By taking the formal equilibrium limit of the stochastic metric a one-parameter family of covariant path-integral measures for general relativity is obtained. There is a unique parameter value, distinguished by any one of the following three properties: (i) the metric is harmonic with respect to the supermetric, (ii) the path-integral measure is that of DeWitt, (iii) the supermetric governs the linearized Einstein dynamics. Moreover the Feynman propagator corresponding to this parameter is causal. Finally we show that a consistent stochastic perturbation theory gives rise to a new type of diagram containing ''stochastic vertices.''

Stochastic biological response to radiation. Comprehensive analysis of gene expression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inoue, Tohru; Hirabayashi, Yoko

2012-01-01

Authors explain that the radiation effect on biological system is stochastic along the law of physics, differing from chemical effect, using instances of Cs-137 gamma-ray (GR) and benzene (BZ) exposures to mice and of resultant comprehensive analyses of gene expression. Single GR irradiation is done with Gamma Cell 40 (CSR) to C57BL/6 or C3H/He mouse at 0, 0.6 and 3 Gy. BE is given orally at 150 mg/kg/day for 5 days x 2 weeks. Bone marrow cells are sampled 1 month after the exposure. Comprehensive gene expression is analyzed by Gene Chip Mouse Genome 430 2.0 Array (Affymetrix) and data are processed by programs like case normalization, statistics, network generation, functional analysis etc. GR irradiation brings about changes of gene expression, which are classifiable in common genes variable commonly on the dose change and stochastic genes variable stochastically within each dose: e.g., with Welch-t-test, significant differences are between 0/3 Gy (dose-specific difference, 455 pbs (probe set), in stochastic 2113 pbs), 0/0.6 Gy (267 in 1284 pbs) and 0.6/3 Gy (532 pbs); and with one-way analysis of variation (ANOVA) and hierarchial/dendrographic analyses, 520 pbs are shown to involve the dose-dependent 226 and dose-specific 294 pbs. It is also shown that at 3 Gy, expression of common genes are rather suppressed, including those related to the proliferation/apoptosis of B/T cells, and of stochastic genes, related to cell division/signaling. Ven diagram of the common genes of above 520 pbs, stochastic 2113 pbs at 3 Gy and 1284 pbs at 0.6 Gy shows the overlapping genes 29, 2 and 4, respectively, indicating only 35 pbs are overlapping in total. Network analysis of changes by GR shows the rather high expression of genes around hub of cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) at 0.6 Gy, and rather variable expression around CREB hub/suppressed expression of kinesin hub at 3 Gy; in the network by BZ exposure, unchanged or low expression around p53 hub and suppression

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation of Ceramic Matrix Composite Laminates

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Pineda, Evan J.; Bhatt, Ramakrishna T.; Arnold, Steven M.

2016-01-01

The Finite Element Analysis-Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to characterize and predict the progressive damage response of silicon-carbide-fiber-reinforced reaction-bonded silicon nitride matrix (SiC/RBSN) composite laminate tensile specimens. Studied were unidirectional laminates [0] (sub 8), [10] (sub 8), [45] (sub 8), and [90] (sub 8); cross-ply laminates [0 (sub 2) divided by 90 (sub 2),]s; angled-ply laminates [plus 45 (sub 2) divided by -45 (sub 2), ]s; doubled-edge-notched [0] (sub 8), laminates; and central-hole laminates. Results correlated well with the experimental data. This work was performed as a validation and benchmarking exercise of the FEAMAC/CARES program. FEAMAC/CARES simulates stochastic-based discrete-event progressive damage of ceramic matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures. It couples three software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating-unit-cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC, and Abaqus is used to model the overall composite structure. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events that incrementally progress until ultimate structural failure.

Momentum Maps and Stochastic Clebsch Action Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Cruzeiro, Ana Bela; Holm, Darryl D.; Ratiu, Tudor S.

2018-01-01

We derive stochastic differential equations whose solutions follow the flow of a stochastic nonlinear Lie algebra operation on a configuration manifold. For this purpose, we develop a stochastic Clebsch action principle, in which the noise couples to the phase space variables through a momentum map. This special coupling simplifies the structure of the resulting stochastic Hamilton equations for the momentum map. In particular, these stochastic Hamilton equations collectivize for Hamiltonians that depend only on the momentum map variable. The Stratonovich equations are derived from the Clebsch variational principle and then converted into Itô form. In comparing the Stratonovich and Itô forms of the stochastic dynamical equations governing the components of the momentum map, we find that the Itô contraction term turns out to be a double Poisson bracket. Finally, we present the stochastic Hamiltonian formulation of the collectivized momentum map dynamics and derive the corresponding Kolmogorov forward and backward equations.

Stochastic biomathematical models with applications to neuronal modeling

CERN Document Server

Batzel, Jerry; Ditlevsen, Susanne

2013-01-01

Stochastic biomathematical models are becoming increasingly important as new light is shed on the role of noise in living systems. In certain biological systems, stochastic effects may even enhance a signal, thus providing a biological motivation for the noise observed in living systems. Recent advances in stochastic analysis and increasing computing power facilitate the analysis of more biophysically realistic models, and this book provides researchers in computational neuroscience and stochastic systems with an overview of recent developments. Key concepts are developed in chapters written by experts in their respective fields. Topics include: one-dimensional homogeneous diffusions and their boundary behavior, large deviation theory and its application in stochastic neurobiological models, a review of mathematical methods for stochastic neuronal integrate-and-fire models, stochastic partial differential equation models in neurobiology, and stochastic modeling of spreading cortical depression.

Stochastic Finite Elements in Reliability-Based Structural Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.

Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect to optimi......Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect...

BRST stochastic quantization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hueffel, H.

1990-01-01

After a brief review of the BRST formalism and of the Parisi-Wu stochastic quantization method we introduce the BRST stochastic quantization scheme. It allows the second quantization of constrained Hamiltonian systems in a manifestly gauge symmetry preserving way. The examples of the relativistic particle, the spinning particle and the bosonic string are worked out in detail. The paper is closed by a discussion on the interacting field theory associated to the relativistic point particle system. 58 refs. (Author)

Stochastic quantum gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumpf, H.

1987-01-01

We begin with a naive application of the Parisi-Wu scheme to linearized gravity. This will lead into trouble as one peculiarity of the full theory, the indefiniteness of the Euclidean action, shows up already at this level. After discussing some proposals to overcome this problem, Minkowski space stochastic quantization will be introduced. This will still not result in an acceptable quantum theory of linearized gravity, as the Feynman propagator turns out to be non-causal. This defect will be remedied only after a careful analysis of general covariance in stochastic quantization has been performed. The analysis requires the notion of a metric on the manifold of metrics, and a natural candidate for this is singled out. With this a consistent stochastic quantization of Einstein gravity becomes possible. It is even possible, at least perturbatively, to return to the Euclidean regime. 25 refs. (Author)

Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

2009-09-01

This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

Stochastic theories of quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De la Pena, L.; Cetto, A.M.

1991-01-01

The material of this article is organized into five sections. In Sect. I the basic characteristics of quantum systems are briefly discussed, with emphasis on their stochastic properties. In Sect. II a version of stochastic quantum mechanics is presented, to conclude that the quantum formalism admits an interpretation in terms of stochastic processes. In Sect. III the elements of stochastic electrodynamics are described, and its possibilities and limitations as a fundamental theory of quantum systems are discussed. Section IV contains a recent reformulation that overcomes the limitations of the theory discussed in the foregoing section. Finally, in Sect. V the theorems of EPR, Von Neumann and Bell are discussed briefly. The material is pedagogically presented and includes an ample list of references, but the details of the derivations are generally omitted. (Author)

River water quality management considering agricultural return flows: application of a nonlinear two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Tavakoli, Ali; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Kerachian, Reza; Soltani, Maryam

2015-04-01

In this paper, a new fuzzy methodology is developed to optimize water and waste load allocation (WWLA) in rivers under uncertainty. An interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (ITSFP) method is utilized to handle parameter uncertainties, which are expressed as fuzzy boundary intervals. An iterative linear programming (ILP) is also used for solving the nonlinear optimization model. To accurately consider the impacts of the water and waste load allocation strategies on the river water quality, a calibrated QUAL2Kw model is linked with the WWLA optimization model. The soil, water, atmosphere, and plant (SWAP) simulation model is utilized to determine the quantity and quality of each agricultural return flow. To control pollution loads of agricultural networks, it is assumed that a part of each agricultural return flow can be diverted to an evaporation pond and also another part of it can be stored in a detention pond. In detention ponds, contaminated water is exposed to solar radiation for disinfecting pathogens. Results of applying the proposed methodology to the Dez River system in the southwestern region of Iran illustrate its effectiveness and applicability for water and waste load allocation in rivers. In the planning phase, this methodology can be used for estimating the capacities of return flow diversion system and evaporation and detention ponds.

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time

Science.gov (United States)

Dhar, Amrit

2017-01-01

Abstract Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences. PMID:28177780

Modeling Stochastic Energy and Water Consumption to Manage Residential Water Uses

Science.gov (United States)

Abdallah, A. M.; Rosenberg, D. E.; Water; Energy Conservation

2011-12-01

Water energy linkages have received growing attention from the water and energy utilities as utilities recognize that collaborative efforts can implement more effective conservation and efficiency improvement programs at lower cost with less effort. To date, limited energy-water household data has allowed only deterministic analysis for average, representative households and required coarse assumptions - like the water heater (the primary energy use in a home apart from heating and cooling) be a single end use. Here, we use recent available disaggregated hot and cold water household end-use data to estimate water and energy consumption for toilet, shower, faucet, dishwasher, laundry machine, leaks, and other household uses and savings from appliance retrofits. The disaggregated hot water and bulk water end-use data was previously collected by the USEPA for 96 single family households in Seattle WA and Oakland CA, and Tampa FL between the period from 2000 and 2003 for two weeks before and four weeks after each household was retrofitted with water efficient appliances. Using the disaggregated data, we developed a stochastic model that represents factors that influence water use for each appliance: behavioral (use frequency and duration), demographical (household size), and technological (use volume or flowrate). We also include stochastic factors that govern energy to heat hot water: hot water fraction (percentage of hot water volume to total water volume used in a certain end-use event), heater water intake and dispense temperatures, and energy source for the heater (gas, electric, etc). From the empirical household end-use data, we derive stochastic probability distributions for each water and energy factor where each distribution represents the range and likelihood of values that the factor may take. The uncertainty of the stochastic water and energy factors is propagated using Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the composite probability distribution for water

A heterogeneous stochastic FEM framework for elliptic PDEs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hou, Thomas Y.; Liu, Pengfei

2015-01-01

We introduce a new concept of sparsity for the stochastic elliptic operator −div(a(x,ω)∇(⋅)), which reflects the compactness of its inverse operator in the stochastic direction and allows for spatially heterogeneous stochastic structure. This new concept of sparsity motivates a heterogeneous stochastic finite element method (HSFEM) framework for linear elliptic equations, which discretizes the equations using the heterogeneous coupling of spatial basis with local stochastic basis to exploit the local stochastic structure of the solution space. We also provide a sampling method to construct the local stochastic basis for this framework using the randomized range finding techniques. The resulting HSFEM involves two stages and suits the multi-query setting: in the offline stage, the local stochastic structure of the solution space is identified; in the online stage, the equation can be efficiently solved for multiple forcing functions. An online error estimation and correction procedure through Monte Carlo sampling is given. Numerical results for several problems with high dimensional stochastic input are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the HSFEM in the online stage

Separable quadratic stochastic operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozikov, U.A.; Nazir, S.

2009-04-01

We consider quadratic stochastic operators, which are separable as a product of two linear operators. Depending on properties of these linear operators we classify the set of the separable quadratic stochastic operators: first class of constant operators, second class of linear and third class of nonlinear (separable) quadratic stochastic operators. Since the properties of operators from the first and second classes are well known, we mainly study the properties of the operators of the third class. We describe some Lyapunov functions of the operators and apply them to study ω-limit sets of the trajectories generated by the operators. We also compare our results with known results of the theory of quadratic operators and give some open problems. (author)

Trajectory averaging for stochastic approximation MCMC algorithms

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2010-01-01

to the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm [Liang, Liu and Carroll J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305-320]. The application of the trajectory averaging estimator to other stochastic approximationMCMC algorithms, for example, a stochastic

Fuzzy Stochastic Unit Commitment Model with Wind Power and Demand Response under Conditional Value-At-Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiafu Yin

2018-02-01

Full Text Available With the increasing penetration of wind power and demand response integrated into the grid, the combined uncertainties from wind power and demand response have been a challenging concern for system operators. It is necessary to develop an approach to accommodate the combined uncertainties in the source side and load side. In this paper, the fuzzy stochastic conditional value-at-risk criterions are proposed as the risk measure of the combination of both wind power uncertainty and demand response uncertainty. To improve the computational tractability without sacrificing the accuracy, the fuzzy stochastic chance-constrained goal programming is proposed to transfer the fuzzy stochastic conditional value-at-risk to a deterministic equivalent. The operational risk of forecast error under fuzzy stochastic conditional value-at-risk assessment is represented by the shortage of reserve resource, which can be further divided into the load-shedding risk and the wind curtailment risk. To identify different priority levels for the different objective functions, the three-stage day-ahead unit commitment model is proposed through preemptive goal programming, in which the reliability requirement has the priority over the economic operation. Finally, a case simulation is performed on the IEEE 39-bus system to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.

Dynamical and hamiltonian dilations of stochastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baumgartner, B.; Gruemm, H.-R.

1982-01-01

This is a study of the problem, which stochastic processes could arise from dynamical systems by loss of information. The notions of ''dilation'' and ''approximate dilation'' of a stochastic process are introduced to give exact definitions of this particular relationship. It is shown that every generalized stochastic process is approximately dilatable by a sequence of dynamical systems, but for stochastic processes in full generality one needs nets. (Author)

Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Camilo Paz

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

Stochastic optimal charging of electric-drive vehicles with renewable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pantoš, Miloš

2011-01-01

The paper presents the stochastic optimization algorithm that may eventually be used by electric energy suppliers to coordinate charging of electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) in order to maximize the use of renewable energy in transportation. Due to the stochastic nature of transportation patterns, the Monte Carlo simulation is applied to model uncertainties presented by numerous scenarios. To reduce the problem complexity, the simulated driving patterns are not individually considered in the optimization but clustered into fleets using the GAMS/SCENRED tool. Uncertainties of production of renewable energy sources (RESs) are presented by statistical central moments that are further considered in Hong’s 2-point + 1 estimation method in order to define estimate points considered in the optimization. Case studies illustrate the application of the proposed optimization in achieving maximal exploitation of RESs in transportation by EDVs. -- Highlights: ► Optimization model for EDV charging applying linear programming. ► Formation of EDV fleets based on the driving patterns assessment applying the GAMS/SCENRED. ► Consideration of uncertainties of RES production and energy prices in the market. ► Stochastic optimization. ► Application of Hong’s 2-point + 1 estimation method.

Transport in Stochastic Media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haran, O.; Shvarts, D.; Thieberger, R.

1998-01-01

Classical transport of neutral particles in a binary, scattering, stochastic media is discussed. It is assumed that the cross-sections of the constituent materials and their volume fractions are known. The inner structure of the media is stochastic, but there exist a statistical knowledge about the lump sizes, shapes and arrangement. The transmission through the composite media depends on the specific heterogeneous realization of the media. The current research focuses on the averaged transmission through an ensemble of realizations, frm which an effective cross-section for the media can be derived. The problem of one dimensional transport in stochastic media has been studied extensively [1]. In the one dimensional description of the problem, particles are transported along a line populated with alternating material segments of random lengths. The current work discusses transport in two-dimensional stochastic media. The phenomenon that is unique to the multi-dimensional description of the problem is obstacle bypassing. Obstacle bypassing tends to reduce the opacity of the media, thereby reducing its effective cross-section. The importance of this phenomenon depends on the manner in which the obstacles are arranged in the media. Results of transport simulations in multi-dimensional stochastic media are presented. Effective cross-sections derived from the simulations are compared against those obtained for the one-dimensional problem, and against those obtained from effective multi-dimensional models, which are partially based on a Markovian assumption

Stochastic Stability of Endogenous Growth: Theory and Applications

OpenAIRE

Boucekkine, Raouf; Pintus, Patrick; Zou, Benteng

2015-01-01

We examine the issue of stability of stochastic endogenous growth. First, stochastic stability concepts are introduced and applied to stochastic linear homogenous differen- tial equations to which several stochastic endogenous growth models reduce. Second, we apply the mathematical theory to two models, starting with the stochastic AK model. It’s shown that in this case exponential balanced paths, which characterize optimal trajectories in the absence of uncertainty, are not robust to uncerta...

Stochastic analysis of uncertain thermal characteristic of foundation soils surrounding the crude oil pipeline in permafrost regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Tao; Zhou, Guoqing; Wang, Jianzhou; Zhao, Xiaodong

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The influence of stochastic properties and conditions on permafrost foundation was investigated. • A stochastic analysis for the uncertain thermal characteristic of crude oil pipe is presented. • The mean temperature and standard deviation of foundation soils are obtained and analyzed. • Average standard deviation and maximum standard deviation of foundation soils increase with time. - Abstract: For foundation soils surrounding the crude oil pipeline in permafrost regions, the soil properties and the upper boundary conditions are stochastic because of complex geological processes and changeable atmospheric environment. The conventional finite element analysis of thermal characteristics for crude oil pipeline is always deterministic, rather than taking stochastic parameters and conditions into account. This study investigated the stochastic influence of an underground crude oil pipeline on the thermal stability of the permafrost foundation on the basis of a stochastic analysis model and the stochastic finite element method. A stochastic finite element program is compiled by Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) software, and the random temperature fields of foundation soils surrounding a crude oil pipeline in a permafrost region are obtained and analyzed by Neumann stochastic finite element method (NSFEM). The results provide a new way to predict the thermal effects of the crude oil pipeline in permafrost regions, and it shows that the standard deviations in temperature increase with time when considering the stochastic effect of soil properties and boundary conditions, which imply that the results of conventional deterministic analysis may be far from the true value, even if in different seasons. It can improve our understanding of the random temperature field of foundation soils surrounding the crude oil pipeline and provide a theoretical basis for actual engineering design in permafrost regions.

Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, Richard V., Jr.

2008-03-01

Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

Output-Feedback Control of Unknown Linear Discrete-Time Systems With Stochastic Measurement and Process Noise via Approximate Dynamic Programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jun-Sheng; Yang, Guang-Hong

2017-07-25

This paper studies the optimal output-feedback control problem for unknown linear discrete-time systems with stochastic measurement and process noise. A dithered Bellman equation with the innovation covariance matrix is constructed via the expectation operator given in the form of a finite summation. On this basis, an output-feedback-based approximate dynamic programming method is developed, where the terms depending on the innovation covariance matrix are available with the aid of the innovation covariance matrix identified beforehand. Therefore, by iterating the Bellman equation, the resulting value function can converge to the optimal one in the presence of the aforementioned noise, and the nearly optimal control laws are delivered. To show the effectiveness and the advantages of the proposed approach, a simulation example and a velocity control experiment on a dc machine are employed.

Stochastic diffusion models for substitutable technological innovations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, L.; Hu, B.; Yu, X.

2004-01-01

Based on the analysis of firms' stochastic adoption behaviour, this paper first points out the necessity to build more practical stochastic models. And then, stochastic evolutionary models are built for substitutable innovation diffusion system. Finally, through the computer simulation of the

Stochasticity in the Josephson map

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomura, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.H.; Filippov, A.T.

1996-04-01

The Josephson map describes nonlinear dynamics of systems characterized by standard map with the uniform external bias superposed. The intricate structures of the phase space portrait of the Josephson map are examined on the basis of the tangent map associated with the Josephson map. Numerical observation of the stochastic diffusion in the Josephson map is examined in comparison with the renormalized diffusion coefficient calculated by the method of characteristic function. The global stochasticity of the Josephson map occurs at the values of far smaller stochastic parameter than the case of the standard map. (author)

Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Teng

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.

Numerical resolution of N-dimensional Fokker-Plank stochastic equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Olivares, A.; Muoz, A.

1992-01-01

This document describes the use of a library of programs able to solve stochastic Fokker-Planck equations in a N-dimensional space. the input data are essentially: (i) the initial distribution of the stochastic variable, (ii) the drift and fluctuation coefficients as a function of the state (which can be obtained from the transition probabilities between neighboring states) and (iii) some parameters controlling the run. A last version of the library accepts sources and sinks defined in the states space. The output is the temporal evolution of the probability distribution in the space defined by a N-dimensional grid. Some applications and readings in Synergetics, Self-Organization, transport phenomena, Ecology and other fields are suggested. If the probability distribution is interpreted as a distribution of particles then the codes can be used to solve the N-dimensional problem of advection-diffusion. (author) 21 fig. 16 ref

Numerical Resolution of N-dimensional Fokker-Planck stochastic equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Olivares, R. A.; Munoz Roldan, A.

1992-01-01

This document describes the use of a library of programs able to solve stochastic Fokker-Planck equations in a N-dimensional space. The input data are essentially: (i) the initial distribution of the stochastic variable, (ii) the drift and fluctuation coefficients as a function of the state (which can be obtained from the transition probabilities between neighboring states) and (iii) some parameters controlling the run. A last version of the library accepts sources and sinks defined in the states space. The output is the temporal evolution of the probability distribution in the space defined by a N-dimensional grid. Some applications and readings in Synergetic, Self-Organization, transport phenomena, Ecology and other fields are suggested. If the probability distribution is interpreted as a distribution of particles then the codes can be used to solve the N-dimensional problem of advection-diffusion. (Author) 16 refs

Stochastic Finite Elements in Reliability-Based Structural Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Engelund, S.

1995-01-01

Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect to optimi......Application of stochastic finite elements in structural optimization is considered. It is shown how stochastic fields modelling e.g. the modulus of elasticity can be discretized in stochastic variables and how a sensitivity analysis of the reliability of a structural system with respect...... to optimization variables can be performed. A computer implementation is described and an illustrative example is given....

PERIODIC REVIEW SYSTEM FOR INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT CONTROL FOR A TWO-ECHELON LOGISTICS NETWORK UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: A TWO-STAGE STOCHASTIC PROGRAMING APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P.S.A. Cunha

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Here, we propose a novel methodology for replenishment and control systems for inventories of two-echelon logistics networks using a two-stage stochastic programming, considering periodic review and uncertain demands. In addition, to achieve better customer services, we introduce a variable rationing rule to address quantities of the item in short. The devised models are reformulated into their deterministic equivalent, resulting in nonlinear mixed-integer programming models, which are then approximately linearized. To deal with the uncertain nature of the item demand levels, we apply a Monte Carlo simulation-based method to generate finite and discrete sets of scenarios. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require restricted assumptions to the behavior of the probabilistic phenomena, as does several existing methods in the literature. Numerical experiments with the proposed approach for randomly generated instances of the problem show results with errors around 1%.

Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth

OpenAIRE

Braumann, C. A.

2010-01-01

Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

Optimal and centralized reservoir management for drought and flood protection via Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming on the Upper Seine-Aube River system

Science.gov (United States)

Chiavico, Mattia; Raso, Luciano; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier

2015-04-01

Seine river region is an extremely important logistic and economic junction for France and Europe. The hydraulic protection of most part of the region relies on four controlled reservoirs, managed by EPTB Seine-Grands Lacs. Presently, reservoirs operation is not centrally coordinated, and release rules are based on empirical filling curves. In this study, we analyze how a centralized release policy can face flood and drought risks, optimizing water system efficiency. The optimal and centralized decisional problem is solved by Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method, minimizing an operational indicator for each planning objective. SDDP allows us to include into the system: 1) the hydrological discharge, specifically a stochastic semi-distributed auto-regressive model, 2) the hydraulic transfer model, represented by a linear lag and route model, and 3) reservoirs and diversions. The novelty of this study lies on the combination of reservoir and hydraulic models in SDDP for flood and drought protection problems. The study case covers the Seine basin until the confluence with Aube River: this system includes two reservoirs, the city of Troyes, and the Nuclear power plant of Nogent-Sur-Seine. The conflict between the interests of flood protection, drought protection, water use and ecology leads to analyze the environmental system in a Multi-Objective perspective.

Alternative Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe stochastic volatility model usually incorporates asymmetric effects by introducing the negative correlation between the innovations in returns and volatility. In this paper, we propose a new asymmetric stochastic volatility model, based on the leverage and size effects. The model is

Transport stochastic multi-dimensional media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haran, O.; Shvarts, D.

1996-01-01

Many physical phenomena evolve according to known deterministic rules, but in a stochastic media in which the composition changes in space and time. Examples to such phenomena are heat transfer in turbulent atmosphere with non uniform diffraction coefficients, neutron transfer in boiling coolant of a nuclear reactor and radiation transfer through concrete shields. The results of measurements conducted upon such a media are stochastic by nature, and depend on the specific realization of the media. In the last decade there has been a considerable efforts to describe linear particle transport in one dimensional stochastic media composed of several immiscible materials. However, transport in two or three dimensional stochastic media has been rarely addressed. The important effect in multi-dimensional transport that does not appear in one dimension is the ability to bypass obstacles. The current work is an attempt to quantify this effect. (authors)

Transport stochastic multi-dimensional media

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haran, O; Shvarts, D [Israel Atomic Energy Commission, Beersheba (Israel). Nuclear Research Center-Negev; Thiberger, R [Ben-Gurion Univ. of the Negev, Beersheba (Israel)

1996-12-01

Many physical phenomena evolve according to known deterministic rules, but in a stochastic media in which the composition changes in space and time. Examples to such phenomena are heat transfer in turbulent atmosphere with non uniform diffraction coefficients, neutron transfer in boiling coolant of a nuclear reactor and radiation transfer through concrete shields. The results of measurements conducted upon such a media are stochastic by nature, and depend on the specific realization of the media. In the last decade there has been a considerable efforts to describe linear particle transport in one dimensional stochastic media composed of several immiscible materials. However, transport in two or three dimensional stochastic media has been rarely addressed. The important effect in multi-dimensional transport that does not appear in one dimension is the ability to bypass obstacles. The current work is an attempt to quantify this effect. (authors).

Modelling and application of stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

1986-01-01

The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza­ tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef­ ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...

Turbulent response in a stochastic regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molvig, K.; Freidberg, J.P.; Potok, R.; Hirshman, S.P.; Whitson, J.C.; Tajima, T.

1981-06-01

The theory for the non-linear, turbulent response in a system with intrinsic stochasticity is considered. It is argued that perturbative Eulerian theories, such as the Direct Interaction Approximation (DIA), are inherently unsuited to describe such a system. The exponentiation property that characterizes stochasticity appears in the Lagrangian picture and cannot even be defined in the Eulerian representation. An approximation for stochastic systems - the Normal Stochastic Approximation - is developed and states that the perturbed orbit functions (Lagrangian fluctuations) behave as normally distributed random variables. This is independent of the Eulerian statistics and, in fact, we treat the Eulerian fluctuations as fixed. A simple model problem (appropriate for the electron response in the drift wave) is subjected to a series of computer experiments. To within numerical noise the results are in agreement with the Normal Stochastic Approximation. The predictions of the DIA for this mode show substantial qualitative and quantitative departures from the observations

Stochastic modeling and analysis of telecoms networks

CERN Document Server

Decreusefond, Laurent

2012-01-01

This book addresses the stochastic modeling of telecommunication networks, introducing the main mathematical tools for that purpose, such as Markov processes, real and spatial point processes and stochastic recursions, and presenting a wide list of results on stability, performances and comparison of systems.The authors propose a comprehensive mathematical construction of the foundations of stochastic network theory: Markov chains, continuous time Markov chains are extensively studied using an original martingale-based approach. A complete presentation of stochastic recursions from an

A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiaobing; Fan Ying; Wei Yiming

2009-01-01

China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently being prepared. But how large the optimal stockpile size for China should be, what the best acquisition strategies are, how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs, and other related issues still need to be studied in detail. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing SPRs to evaluate the optimal SPR policy for China. Using this model, empirical results are presented for the optimal size of China's SPR and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases. The results show that with comprehensive consideration, the optimal SPR size for China is around 320 million barrels. This size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017, three years earlier than the national goal, which implies that the need for China to fill the SPR is probably more pressing; the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities. The information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers.

Trajectory averaging for stochastic approximation MCMC algorithms

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2010-10-01

The subject of stochastic approximation was founded by Robbins and Monro [Ann. Math. Statist. 22 (1951) 400-407]. After five decades of continual development, it has developed into an important area in systems control and optimization, and it has also served as a prototype for the development of adaptive algorithms for on-line estimation and control of stochastic systems. Recently, it has been used in statistics with Markov chain Monte Carlo for solving maximum likelihood estimation problems and for general simulation and optimizations. In this paper, we first show that the trajectory averaging estimator is asymptotically efficient for the stochastic approximation MCMC (SAMCMC) algorithm under mild conditions, and then apply this result to the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm [Liang, Liu and Carroll J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305-320]. The application of the trajectory averaging estimator to other stochastic approximationMCMC algorithms, for example, a stochastic approximation MLE algorithm for missing data problems, is also considered in the paper. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Stochastic resonance during a polymer translocation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mondal, Debasish; Muthukumar, M.

2016-01-01

We have studied the occurrence of stochastic resonance when a flexible polymer chain undergoes a single-file translocation through a nano-pore separating two spherical cavities, under a time-periodic external driving force. The translocation of the chain is controlled by a free energy barrier determined by chain length, pore length, pore-polymer interaction, and confinement inside the donor and receiver cavities. The external driving force is characterized by a frequency and amplitude. By combining the Fokker-Planck formalism for polymer translocation and a two-state model for stochastic resonance, we have derived analytical formulas for criteria for emergence of stochastic resonance during polymer translocation. We show that no stochastic resonance is possible if the free energy barrier for polymer translocation is purely entropic in nature. The polymer chain exhibits stochastic resonance only in the presence of an energy threshold in terms of polymer-pore interactions. Once stochastic resonance is feasible, the chain entropy controls the optimal synchronization conditions significantly.

Is human failure a stochastic process?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, Ed M.

1997-01-01

Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance

Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

2017-12-01

Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

Parallel replica dynamics method for bistable stochastic reaction networks: Simulation and sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ting; Plecháč, Petr

2017-12-21

Stochastic reaction networks that exhibit bistable behavior are common in systems biology, materials science, and catalysis. Sampling of stationary distributions is crucial for understanding and characterizing the long-time dynamics of bistable stochastic dynamical systems. However, simulations are often hindered by the insufficient sampling of rare transitions between the two metastable regions. In this paper, we apply the parallel replica method for a continuous time Markov chain in order to improve sampling of the stationary distribution in bistable stochastic reaction networks. The proposed method uses parallel computing to accelerate the sampling of rare transitions. Furthermore, it can be combined with the path-space information bounds for parametric sensitivity analysis. With the proposed methodology, we study three bistable biological networks: the Schlögl model, the genetic switch network, and the enzymatic futile cycle network. We demonstrate the algorithmic speedup achieved in these numerical benchmarks. More significant acceleration is expected when multi-core or graphics processing unit computer architectures and programming tools such as CUDA are employed.

Stochastic Switching Dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simonsen, Maria

This thesis treats stochastic systems with switching dynamics. Models with these characteristics are studied from several perspectives. Initially in a simple framework given in the form of stochastic differential equations and, later, in an extended form which fits into the framework of sliding...... mode control. It is investigated how to understand and interpret solutions to models of switched systems, which are exposed to discontinuous dynamics and uncertainties (primarily) in the form of white noise. The goal is to gain knowledge about the performance of the system by interpreting the solution...

Stochastic singular optics

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Roux, FS

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Roux Presented at the International Conference on Correlation Optics 2013 Chernivtsi, Ukraine 18-20 September 2013 CSIR National Laser Centre, Pretoria, South Africa – p. 1/24 Contents ⊲ Defining Stochastic Singular Optics (SSO) ⊲ Tools of Stochastic... of vortices: topological charge ±1 (higher order are unstable). Positive and negative vortex densities np(x, y, z) and nn(x, y, z) ⊲ Vortex density: V = np + nn ⊲ Topological charge density: T = np − nn – p. 4/24 Subfields of SSO ⊲ Homogeneous, normally...

Dynamics of non-holonomic systems with stochastic transport

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, D. D.; Putkaradze, V.

2018-01-01

This paper formulates a variational approach for treating observational uncertainty and/or computational model errors as stochastic transport in dynamical systems governed by action principles under non-holonomic constraints. For this purpose, we derive, analyse and numerically study the example of an unbalanced spherical ball rolling under gravity along a stochastic path. Our approach uses the Hamilton-Pontryagin variational principle, constrained by a stochastic rolling condition, which we show is equivalent to the corresponding stochastic Lagrange-d'Alembert principle. In the example of the rolling ball, the stochasticity represents uncertainty in the observation and/or error in the computational simulation of the angular velocity of rolling. The influence of the stochasticity on the deterministically conserved quantities is investigated both analytically and numerically. Our approach applies to a wide variety of stochastic, non-holonomically constrained systems, because it preserves the mathematical properties inherited from the variational principle.

Stochastic cooling at Fermilab

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marriner, J.

1986-08-01

The topics discussed are the stochastic cooling systems in use at Fermilab and some of the techniques that have been employed to meet the particular requirements of the anti-proton source. Stochastic cooling at Fermilab became of paramount importance about 5 years ago when the anti-proton source group at Fermilab abandoned the electron cooling ring in favor of a high flux anti-proton source which relied solely on stochastic cooling to achieve the phase space densities necessary for colliding proton and anti-proton beams. The Fermilab systems have constituted a substantial advance in the techniques of cooling including: large pickup arrays operating at microwave frequencies, extensive use of cryogenic techniques to reduce thermal noise, super-conducting notch filters, and the development of tools for controlling and for accurately phasing the system

Stochastic inflation in phase space: is slow roll a stochastic attractor?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grain, Julien [Institut d' Astrophysique Spatiale, UMR8617, CNRS, Univ. Paris Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, Bt. 121, Orsay, F-91405 (France); Vennin, Vincent, E-mail: julien.grain@ias.u-psud.fr, E-mail: vincent.vennin@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO13FX (United Kingdom)

2017-05-01

An appealing feature of inflationary cosmology is the presence of a phase-space attractor, ''slow roll'', which washes out the dependence on initial field velocities. We investigate the robustness of this property under backreaction from quantum fluctuations using the stochastic inflation formalism in the phase-space approach. A Hamiltonian formulation of stochastic inflation is presented, where it is shown that the coarse-graining procedure—where wavelengths smaller than the Hubble radius are integrated out—preserves the canonical structure of free fields. This means that different sets of canonical variables give rise to the same probability distribution which clarifies the literature with respect to this issue. The role played by the quantum-to-classical transition is also analysed and is shown to constrain the coarse-graining scale. In the case of free fields, we find that quantum diffusion is aligned in phase space with the slow-roll direction. This implies that the classical slow-roll attractor is immune to stochastic effects and thus generalises to a stochastic attractor regardless of initial conditions, with a relaxation time at least as short as in the classical system. For non-test fields or for test fields with non-linear self interactions however, quantum diffusion and the classical slow-roll flow are misaligned. We derive a condition on the coarse-graining scale so that observational corrections from this misalignment are negligible at leading order in slow roll.

Stochastic Reformulations of Linear Systems: Algorithms and Convergence Theory

KAUST Repository

Richtarik, Peter; Taká č, Martin

2017-01-01

We develop a family of reformulations of an arbitrary consistent linear system into a stochastic problem. The reformulations are governed by two user-defined parameters: a positive definite matrix defining a norm, and an arbitrary discrete or continuous distribution over random matrices. Our reformulation has several equivalent interpretations, allowing for researchers from various communities to leverage their domain specific insights. In particular, our reformulation can be equivalently seen as a stochastic optimization problem, stochastic linear system, stochastic fixed point problem and a probabilistic intersection problem. We prove sufficient, and necessary and sufficient conditions for the reformulation to be exact. Further, we propose and analyze three stochastic algorithms for solving the reformulated problem---basic, parallel and accelerated methods---with global linear convergence rates. The rates can be interpreted as condition numbers of a matrix which depends on the system matrix and on the reformulation parameters. This gives rise to a new phenomenon which we call stochastic preconditioning, and which refers to the problem of finding parameters (matrix and distribution) leading to a sufficiently small condition number. Our basic method can be equivalently interpreted as stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton method, stochastic proximal point method, stochastic fixed point method, and stochastic projection method, with fixed stepsize (relaxation parameter), applied to the reformulations.

Stochastic Reformulations of Linear Systems: Algorithms and Convergence Theory

KAUST Repository

Richtarik, Peter

2017-06-04

We develop a family of reformulations of an arbitrary consistent linear system into a stochastic problem. The reformulations are governed by two user-defined parameters: a positive definite matrix defining a norm, and an arbitrary discrete or continuous distribution over random matrices. Our reformulation has several equivalent interpretations, allowing for researchers from various communities to leverage their domain specific insights. In particular, our reformulation can be equivalently seen as a stochastic optimization problem, stochastic linear system, stochastic fixed point problem and a probabilistic intersection problem. We prove sufficient, and necessary and sufficient conditions for the reformulation to be exact. Further, we propose and analyze three stochastic algorithms for solving the reformulated problem---basic, parallel and accelerated methods---with global linear convergence rates. The rates can be interpreted as condition numbers of a matrix which depends on the system matrix and on the reformulation parameters. This gives rise to a new phenomenon which we call stochastic preconditioning, and which refers to the problem of finding parameters (matrix and distribution) leading to a sufficiently small condition number. Our basic method can be equivalently interpreted as stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Newton method, stochastic proximal point method, stochastic fixed point method, and stochastic projection method, with fixed stepsize (relaxation parameter), applied to the reformulations.

Quantization of dynamical systems and stochastic control theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerra, F.; Morato, L.M.

1982-09-01

In the general framework of stochastic control theory we introduce a suitable form of stochastic action associated to the controlled process. Then a variational principle gives all main features of Nelson's stochastic mechanics. In particular we derive the expression of the current velocity field as the gradient of the phase action. Moreover the stochastic corrections to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation are in agreement with the quantum mechanical form of the Madelung fluid (equivalent to the Schroedinger equation). Therefore stochastic control theory can provide a very simple model simulating quantum mechanical behavior

On Lipschitzian quantum stochastic differential inclusions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekhaguere, G.O.S.

1990-12-01

Quantum stochastic differential inclusions are introduced and studied within the framework of the Hudson-Parthasarathy formulation of quantum stochastic calculus. Results concerning the existence of solutions of a Lipschitzian quantum stochastic differential inclusion and the relationship between the solutions of such an inclusion and those of its convexification are presented. These generalize the Filippov existence theorem and the Filippov-Wazewski Relaxation Theorem for classical differential inclusions to the present noncommutative setting. (author). 9 refs

Stochastic temperature and the Nicolai map

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hueffel, H.

1989-01-01

Just as standard temperature can be related to the time coordinate of Euclidean space, a new concept of 'stochastic temperature' may be introduced by associating it to the Parisi-Wu time of stochastic quantization. The perturbative equilibrium limit for a self-interacting scalar field is studied, and a 'thermal' mass shift to one loop is shown. In addition one may interpret the underlying stochastic process as a Nicolai map at nonzero 'temperature'. 22 refs. (Author)

Stochastic Linear Quadratic Optimal Control Problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, S.; Yong, J.

2001-01-01

This paper is concerned with the stochastic linear quadratic optimal control problem (LQ problem, for short) for which the coefficients are allowed to be random and the cost functional is allowed to have a negative weight on the square of the control variable. Some intrinsic relations among the LQ problem, the stochastic maximum principle, and the (linear) forward-backward stochastic differential equations are established. Some results involving Riccati equation are discussed as well

Optimal operating rules definition in complex water resource systems combining fuzzy logic, expert criteria and stochastic programming

Science.gov (United States)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-04-01

This contribution presents a methodology for defining optimal seasonal operating rules in multireservoir systems coupling expert criteria and stochastic optimization. Both sources of information are combined using fuzzy logic. The structure of the operating rules is defined based on expert criteria, via a joint expert-technician framework consisting in a series of meetings, workshops and surveys carried out between reservoir managers and modelers. As a result, the decision-making process used by managers can be assessed and expressed using fuzzy logic: fuzzy rule-based systems are employed to represent the operating rules and fuzzy regression procedures are used for forecasting future inflows. Once done that, a stochastic optimization algorithm can be used to define optimal decisions and transform them into fuzzy rules. Finally, the optimal fuzzy rules and the inflow prediction scheme are combined into a Decision Support System for making seasonal forecasts and simulate the effect of different alternatives in response to the initial system state and the foreseen inflows. The approach presented has been applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Reservoir managers explained how the system is operated, taking into account the reservoirs' states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the inflows previewed during that season. According to the information given by them, the Jucar River Basin operating policies were expressed via two fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systems that estimate the amount of water to be allocated to the users and how the reservoir storages should be balanced to guarantee those deliveries. A stochastic optimization model using Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) was developed to define optimal decisions, which are transformed into optimal operating rules embedding them into the two FRBs previously created. As a benchmark, historical records are used to develop alternative operating rules. A fuzzy linear regression procedure was employed to

Stochastic production planning for a biofuel supply chain under demand and price uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Awudu, Iddrisu; Zhang, Jun

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The proposed stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model. ► The price of biofuel is modeled as Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). ► The proposed model can be applied in any biofuel supply chain. -- Abstract: In this paper, we propose a stochastic production planning model for a biofuel supply chain under demand and price uncertainties. The supply chain consists of biomass suppliers, biofuel refinery plants and distribution centers. A stochastic linear programming model is proposed within a single-period planning framework to maximize the expected profit. Decisions such as the amount of raw materials purchased, the amount of raw materials consumed and the amount of products produced are considered. Demands of end products are uncertain with known probability distributions. The prices of end products follow Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Benders decomposition (BD) with Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to solve the proposed model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic model and the decomposition algorithm, a representative supply chain for an ethanol plant in North Dakota is considered. To investigate the results of the proposed model, a simulation framework is developed to compare the performances of deterministic model and proposed stochastic model. The results from the simulation indicate the proposed model obtain higher expected profit than the deterministic model under different uncertainty settings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to gain management insight on how profit changes due to the uncertainties affect the model developed.

Stochastic quantization of gravity and string fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumpf, H.

1986-01-01

The stochastic quantization method of Parisi and Wu is generalized so as to make it applicable to Einstein's theory of gravitation. The generalization is based on the existence of a preferred metric in field configuration space, involves Ito's calculus, and introduces a complex stochastic process adapted to Lorentzian spacetime. It implies formally the path integral measure of DeWitt, a causual Feynman propagator, and a consistent stochastic perturbation theory. The lineraized version of the theory is also obtained from the stochastic quantization of the free string field theory of Siegel and Zwiebach. (Author)

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year 2015 Funded Research Stochastic Modeling of Radioactive Material Releases Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrus, Jason P. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Toston, Mary [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Maas, Andrew [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-12-01

Nonreactor nuclear facilities operating under the approval authority of the U.S. Department of Energy use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge or exceed dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated design basis events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines or exceed the guidelines for members of the public or workers, merit selection of safety structures, systems, or components or other controls to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, has developed a portable and simple to use software application called SODA (Stochastic Objective Decision-Aide) that stochastically calculates the radiation dose distribution associated with hypothetical radiological material release scenarios. Rather than producing a point estimate of the dose, SODA produces a dose distribution result to allow a deeper understanding of the dose potential. SODA allows users to select the distribution type and parameter values for all of the input variables used to perform the dose calculation. Users can also specify custom distributions through a user defined distribution option. SODA then randomly samples each distribution input variable and calculates the overall resulting dose distribution. In cases where an input variable distribution is unknown, a traditional single point value can be used. SODA, developed using the MATLAB coding framework, has a graphical user interface and can be installed on both Windows and Mac computers. SODA is a standalone software application and does not require MATLAB to function. SODA provides improved risk understanding leading to better informed decision making associated with establishing nuclear facility material-at-risk limits and safety structure, system, or component selection. It is important to note that SODA does not replace or compete with codes such as MACCS or RSAC; rather it is viewed as an

Thermal mixtures in stochastic mechanics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerra, F [Rome Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Matematica; Loffredo, M I [Salerno Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica

1981-01-17

Stochastic mechanics is extended to systems in thermal equilibrium. The resulting stochastic processes are mixtures of Nelson processes. Their Markov property is investigated in some simple cases. It is found that in order to inforce Markov property the algebra of observable associated to the present must be suitably enlarged.

The Robustness of Stochastic Switching Networks

OpenAIRE

Loh, Po-Ling; Zhou, Hongchao; Bruck, Jehoshua

2009-01-01

Many natural systems, including chemical and biological systems, can be modeled using stochastic switching circuits. These circuits consist of stochastic switches, called pswitches, which operate with a fixed probability of being open or closed. We study the effect caused by introducing an error of size ∈ to each pswitch in a stochastic circuit. We analyze two constructions – simple series-parallel and general series-parallel circuits – and prove that simple series-parallel circuits are robus...

The intrinsic stochasticity of near-integrable Hamiltonian systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krlin, L [Ceskoslovenska Akademie Ved, Prague (Czechoslovakia). Ustav Fyziky Plazmatu

1989-09-01

Under certain conditions, the dynamics of near-integrable Hamiltonian systems appears to be stochastic. This stochasticity (intrinsic stochasticity, or deterministic chaos) is closely related to the Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM) theorem of the stability of near-integrable multiperiodic Hamiltonian systems. The effect of the intrinsic stochasticity attracts still growing attention both in theory and in various applications in contemporary physics. The paper discusses the relation of the intrinsic stochasticity to the modern ergodic theory and to the KAM theorem, and describes some numerical experiments on related astrophysical and high-temperature plasma problems. Some open questions are mentioned in conclusion. (author).

Linear stochastic neutron transport theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewins, J.

1978-01-01

A new and direct derivation of the Bell-Pal fundamental equation for (low power) neutron stochastic behaviour in the Boltzmann continuum model is given. The development includes correlation of particle emission direction in induced and spontaneous fission. This leads to generalizations of the backward and forward equations for the mean and variance of neutron behaviour. The stochastic importance for neutron transport theory is introduced and related to the conventional deterministic importance. Defining equations and moment equations are derived and shown to be related to the backward fundamental equation with the detector distribution of the operational definition of stochastic importance playing the role of an adjoint source. (author)

Entropy Production in Stochastics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Demetris Koutsoyiannis

2017-10-01

Full Text Available While the modern definition of entropy is genuinely probabilistic, in entropy production the classical thermodynamic definition, as in heat transfer, is typically used. Here we explore the concept of entropy production within stochastics and, particularly, two forms of entropy production in logarithmic time, unconditionally (EPLT or conditionally on the past and present having been observed (CEPLT. We study the theoretical properties of both forms, in general and in application to a broad set of stochastic processes. A main question investigated, related to model identification and fitting from data, is how to estimate the entropy production from a time series. It turns out that there is a link of the EPLT with the climacogram, and of the CEPLT with two additional tools introduced here, namely the differenced climacogram and the climacospectrum. In particular, EPLT and CEPLT are related to slopes of log-log plots of these tools, with the asymptotic slopes at the tails being most important as they justify the emergence of scaling laws of second-order characteristics of stochastic processes. As a real-world application, we use an extraordinary long time series of turbulent velocity and show how a parsimonious stochastic model can be identified and fitted using the tools developed.

Stochastic approach to microphysics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aron, J.C.

1987-01-01

The presently widespread idea of ''vacuum population'', together with the quantum concept of vacuum fluctuations leads to assume a random level below that of matter. This stochastic approach starts by a reminder of the author's previous work, first on the relation of diffusion laws with the foundations of microphysics, and then on hadron spectrum. Following the latter, a random quark model is advanced; it gives to quark pairs properties similar to those of a harmonic oscillator or an elastic string, imagined as an explanation to their asymptotic freedom and their confinement. The stochastic study of such interactions as electron-nucleon, jets in e/sup +/e/sup -/ collisions, or pp -> ..pi../sup 0/ + X, gives form factors closely consistent with experiment. The conclusion is an epistemological comment (complementarity between stochastic and quantum domains, E.P.R. paradox, etc...).

Stochastic reservoir operation under drought with fuzzy objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parent, E.; Duckstein, L.

1993-01-01

Biojective reservoir operation under drought conditions is investigated using stochastic dynamic programming. As both objectives (irrigation water supply, water quality) can only be defined imprecisely, a fuzzy set approach is used to encode the decision maker (DM)'s preferences. The nature driven components are modeled by means of classical stage-state system analysis. The state is three dimensional (inflow memory, drought irrigation index, reservoir level); the decision vector elements are release and irrigation allocation. Stochasticity stems from the random nature of inflows and irrigation demands. The transition function includes a lag one inflow Markov model and mass balance equations. The human driven component is designed as a confluence of fuzzy objectives and constraints after Bellman and Zadeh. Fuzzy numbers are assessed to represent the DM's objectives by two different techniques, the direct one and indirect pairwise comparison. The real case study of the Neste river system in southwestern France is used to illustrate the approach; the result are compared to a classical sequential decision theoretical model derived earlier from the viewpoints of ease of modeling, computational efforts, plausibility and robustness of results

A Data-Driven Stochastic Reactive Power Optimization Considering Uncertainties in Active Distribution Networks and Decomposition Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ding, Tao; Yang, Qingrun; Yang, Yongheng

2018-01-01

To address the uncertain output of distributed generators (DGs) for reactive power optimization in active distribution networks, the stochastic programming model is widely used. The model is employed to find an optimal control strategy with minimum expected network loss while satisfying all......, in this paper, a data-driven modeling approach is introduced to assume that the probability distribution from the historical data is uncertain within a confidence set. Furthermore, a data-driven stochastic programming model is formulated as a two-stage problem, where the first-stage variables find the optimal...... control for discrete reactive power compensation equipment under the worst probability distribution of the second stage recourse. The second-stage variables are adjusted to uncertain probability distribution. In particular, this two-stage problem has a special structure so that the second-stage problem...

Markov stochasticity coordinates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eliazar, Iddo

2017-01-01

Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

Markov stochasticity coordinates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

2017-01-15

Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

Dynamic asset allocation for bank under stochastic interest rates.

OpenAIRE

Chakroun, Fatma; Abid, Fathi

2014-01-01

This paper considers the optimal asset allocation strategy for bank with stochastic interest rates when there are three types of asset: Bank account, loans and securities. The asset allocation problem is to maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth of a bank's shareholders over a finite time horizon. As a consequence, we apply a dynamic programming principle to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation explicitly in the case of the CRRA utility function. A case study is given ...

Approximating Preemptive Stochastic Scheduling

OpenAIRE

Megow Nicole; Vredeveld Tjark

2009-01-01

We present constant approximative policies for preemptive stochastic scheduling. We derive policies with a guaranteed performance ratio of 2 for scheduling jobs with release dates on identical parallel machines subject to minimizing the sum of weighted completion times. Our policies as well as their analysis apply also to the recently introduced more general model of stochastic online scheduling. The performance guarantee we give matches the best result known for the corresponding determinist...

The stochastic goodwill problem

OpenAIRE

Marinelli, Carlo

2003-01-01

Stochastic control problems related to optimal advertising under uncertainty are considered. In particular, we determine the optimal strategies for the problem of maximizing the utility of goodwill at launch time and minimizing the disutility of a stream of advertising costs that extends until the launch time for some classes of stochastic perturbations of the classical Nerlove-Arrow dynamics. We also consider some generalizations such as problems with constrained budget and with discretionar...

Sequential neural models with stochastic layers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fraccaro, Marco; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Paquet, Ulrich

2016-01-01

How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural...... generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over...

Stochastic Programming for Fuel Supply Planning of Combined Heat and Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guericke, Daniela; Blanco, Ignacio; Morales González, Juan Miguel

The consumption of biomass to produce power and heat has increased due to the carbon neutral policies. Combined heat and power (CHP) plants often combine biomass with other fuels, e.g., natural gas. The negotiation process for supply contracts involves many uncertainties due to the long planning...... horizon. The demand for biomass is uncertain, and heat demand and electricity prices vary during the planning period. We propose a method using stochastic optimization to support the biomass and natural gas supply planning for CHP plants including short-term decisions for optimal market participation....

History-dependent stochastic Petri nets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schonenberg, H.; Sidorova, N.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Hee, van K.M.; Pnueli, A.; Virbitskaite, I.; Voronkov, A.

2010-01-01

Stochastic Petri Nets are a useful and well-known tool for performance analysis. However, an implicit assumption in the different types of Stochastic Petri Nets is the Markov property. It is assumed that a choice in the Petri net only depends on the current state and not on earlier choices. For many

Stochastic ferromagnetism analysis and numerics

CERN Document Server

Brzezniak, Zdzislaw; Neklyudov, Mikhail; Prohl, Andreas

2013-01-01

This monograph examines magnetization dynamics at elevated temperatures which can be described by the stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation (SLLG). Comparative computational studies with the stochastic model are included. Constructive tools such as e.g. finite element methods are used to derive the theoretical results, which are then used for computational studies.

Modelling Cow Behaviour Using Stochastic Automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Ragnar Ingi

This report covers an initial study on the modelling of cow behaviour using stochastic automata with the aim of detecting lameness. Lameness in cows is a serious problem that needs to be dealt with because it results in less profitable production units and in reduced quality of life...... for the affected livestock. By featuring training data consisting of measurements of cow activity, three different models are obtained, namely an autonomous stochastic automaton, a stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output and an autonomous stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output, all...... of which describe the cows' activity in the two regarded behavioural scenarios, non-lame and lame. Using the experimental measurement data the different behavioural relations for the two regarded behavioural scenarios are assessed. The three models comprise activity within last hour, activity within last...

Synthetic Computation: Chaos Computing, Logical Stochastic Resonance, and Adaptive Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Kia, Behnam; Murali, K.; Jahed Motlagh, Mohammad-Reza; Sinha, Sudeshna; Ditto, William L.

Nonlinearity and chaos can illustrate numerous behaviors and patterns, and one can select different patterns from this rich library of patterns. In this paper we focus on synthetic computing, a field that engineers and synthesizes nonlinear systems to obtain computation. We explain the importance of nonlinearity, and describe how nonlinear systems can be engineered to perform computation. More specifically, we provide an overview of chaos computing, a field that manually programs chaotic systems to build different types of digital functions. Also we briefly describe logical stochastic resonance (LSR), and then extend the approach of LSR to realize combinational digital logic systems via suitable concatenation of existing logical stochastic resonance blocks. Finally we demonstrate how a chaotic system can be engineered and mated with different machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks, random searching, and genetic algorithm, to design different autonomous systems that can adapt and respond to environmental conditions.

Exact Algorithms for Solving Stochastic Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kristoffer Arnsfelt; Koucky, Michal; Lauritzen, Niels

2012-01-01

Shapley's discounted stochastic games, Everett's recursive games and Gillette's undiscounted stochastic games are classical models of game theory describing two-player zero-sum games of potentially infinite duration. We describe algorithms for exactly solving these games....

Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations

CERN Document Server

Kessler, Mathieu; Sorensen, Michael

2012-01-01

The seventh volume in the SemStat series, Statistical Methods for Stochastic Differential Equations presents current research trends and recent developments in statistical methods for stochastic differential equations. Written to be accessible to both new students and seasoned researchers, each self-contained chapter starts with introductions to the topic at hand and builds gradually towards discussing recent research. The book covers Wiener-driven equations as well as stochastic differential equations with jumps, including continuous-time ARMA processes and COGARCH processes. It presents a sp

Stochastic quantization of general relativity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumpf, H.

1986-01-01

Following an elementary exposition of the basic mathematical concepts used in the theory of stochastic relaxation processes the stochastic quantization method of Parisi and Wu is briefly reviewed. The method is applied to Einstein's theory of gravitation using a formalism that is manifestly covariant with respect to field redefinitions. This requires the adoption of Ito's calculus and the introduction of a metric in field configuration space, for which there is a unique candidate. Due to the indefiniteness of the Euclidean Einstein-Hilbert action stochastic quantization is generalized to the pseudo-Riemannian case. It is formally shown to imply the DeWitt path integral measure. Finally a new type of perturbation theory is developed. (Author)

Stochastic estimation of electricity consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kapetanovic, I.; Konjic, T.; Zahirovic, Z.

1999-01-01

Electricity consumption forecasting represents a part of the stable functioning of the power system. It is very important because of rationality and increase of control process efficiency and development planning of all aspects of society. On a scientific basis, forecasting is a possible way to solve problems. Among different models that have been used in the area of forecasting, the stochastic aspect of forecasting as a part of quantitative models takes a very important place in applications. ARIMA models and Kalman filter as stochastic estimators have been treated together for electricity consumption forecasting. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to present the stochastic forecasting aspect using short time series. (author)

Stochastic dynamics and irreversibility

CERN Document Server

Tomé, Tânia

2015-01-01

This textbook presents an exposition of stochastic dynamics and irreversibility. It comprises the principles of probability theory and the stochastic dynamics in continuous spaces, described by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, and in discrete spaces, described by Markov chains and master equations. Special concern is given to the study of irreversibility, both in systems that evolve to equilibrium and in nonequilibrium stationary states. Attention is also given to the study of models displaying phase transitions and critical phenomema both in thermodynamic equilibrium and out of equilibrium. These models include the linear Glauber model, the Glauber-Ising model, lattice models with absorbing states such as the contact process and those used in population dynamic and spreading of epidemic, probabilistic cellular automata, reaction-diffusion processes, random sequential adsorption and dynamic percolation. A stochastic approach to chemical reaction is also presented.The textbook is intended for students of ...

Simple Planar Truss (Linear, Nonlinear and Stochastic Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frydrýšek Karel

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This article deals with a simple planar and statically determinate pin-connected truss. It demonstrates the processes and methods of derivations and solutions according to 1st and 2nd order theories. The article applies linear and nonlinear approaches and their simplifications via a Maclaurin series. Programming connected with the stochastic Simulation-Based Reliability Method (i.e. the direct Monte Carlo approach is used to conduct a probabilistic reliability assessment (i.e. a calculation of the probability that plastic deformation will occur in members of the truss.

Transport properties of stochastic Lorentz models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beijeren, H. van

Diffusion processes are considered for one-dimensional stochastic Lorentz models, consisting of randomly distributed fixed scatterers and one moving light particle. In waiting time Lorentz models the light particle makes instantaneous jumps between scatterers after a stochastically distributed

Economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, R L; Al-Mamun, M A; Gröhn, Y T

2017-03-01

The cost of paratuberculosis to dairy herds, through decreased milk production, early culling, and poor reproductive performance, has been well-studied. The benefit of control programs, however, has been debated. A recent stochastic compartmental model for paratuberculosis transmission in US dairy herds was modified to predict herd net present value (NPV) over 25 years in herds of 100 and 1000 dairy cattle with endemic paratuberculosis at initial prevalence of 10% and 20%. Control programs were designed by combining 5 tests (none, fecal culture, ELISA, PCR, or calf testing), 3 test-related culling strategies (all test-positive, high-positive, or repeated positive), 2 test frequencies (annual and biannual), 3 hygiene levels (standard, moderate, or improved), and 2 cessation decisions (testing ceased after 5 negative whole-herd tests or testing continued). Stochastic dominance was determined for each herd scenario; no control program was fully dominant for maximizing herd NPV in any scenario. Use of the ELISA test was generally preferred in all scenarios, but no paratuberculosis control was highly preferred for the small herd with 10% initial prevalence and was frequently preferred in other herd scenarios. Based on their effect on paratuberculosis alone, hygiene improvements were not found to be as cost-effective as test-and-cull strategies in most circumstances. Global sensitivity analysis found that economic parameters, such as the price of milk, had more influence on NPV than control program-related parameters. We conclude that paratuberculosis control can be cost effective, and multiple control programs can be applied for equivalent economic results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic gene expression in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Ilka Schultheiß; Pietsch, Jessica Magdalena; Keizer, Emma Mathilde; Greese, Bettina; Balkunde, Rachappa; Fleck, Christian; Hülskamp, Martin

2017-12-14

Although plant development is highly reproducible, some stochasticity exists. This developmental stochasticity may be caused by noisy gene expression. Here we analyze the fluctuation of protein expression in Arabidopsis thaliana. Using the photoconvertible KikGR marker, we show that the protein expressions of individual cells fluctuate over time. A dual reporter system was used to study extrinsic and intrinsic noise of marker gene expression. We report that extrinsic noise is higher than intrinsic noise and that extrinsic noise in stomata is clearly lower in comparison to several other tissues/cell types. Finally, we show that cells are coupled with respect to stochastic protein expression in young leaves, hypocotyls and roots but not in mature leaves. Our data indicate that stochasticity of gene expression can vary between tissues/cell types and that it can be coupled in a non-cell-autonomous manner.

Stochastic deformation of a thermodynamic symplectic structure

OpenAIRE

Kazinski, P. O.

2008-01-01

A stochastic deformation of a thermodynamic symplectic structure is studied. The stochastic deformation procedure is analogous to the deformation of an algebra of observables like deformation quantization, but for an imaginary deformation parameter (the Planck constant). Gauge symmetries of thermodynamics and corresponding stochastic mechanics, which describes fluctuations of a thermodynamic system, are revealed and gauge fields are introduced. A physical interpretation to the gauge transform...

Stochastic differential equations and diffusion processes

CERN Document Server

Ikeda, N

1989-01-01

Being a systematic treatment of the modern theory of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, the theory is developed within the martingale framework, which was developed by J.L. Doob and which plays an indispensable role in the modern theory of stochastic analysis.A considerable number of corrections and improvements have been made for the second edition of this classic work. In particular, major and substantial changes are in Chapter III and Chapter V where the sections treating excursions of Brownian Motion and the Malliavin Calculus have been expanded and refined. Sectio

Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

CERN Document Server

Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G

2011-01-01

Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi

Stochastic resonance: noise-enhanced order

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anishchenko, Vadim S; Neiman, Arkady B; Moss, F; Shimansky-Geier, L

1999-01-01

Stochastic resonance (SR) provides a glaring example of a noise-induced transition in a nonlinear system driven by an information signal and noise simultaneously. In the regime of SR some characteristics of the information signal (amplification factor, signal-to-noise ratio, the degrees of coherence and of order, etc.) at the output of the system are significantly improved at a certain optimal noise level. SR is realized only in nonlinear systems for which a noise-intensity-controlled characteristic time becomes available. In the present review the physical mechanism and methods of theoretical description of SR are briefly discussed. SR features determined by the structure of the information signal, noise statistics and properties of particular systems with SR are studied. A nontrivial phenomenon of stochastic synchronization defined as locking of the instantaneous phase and switching frequency of a bistable system by external periodic force is analyzed in detail. Stochastic synchronization is explored in single and coupled bistable oscillators, including ensembles. The effects of SR and stochastic synchronization of ensembles of stochastic resonators are studied both with and without coupling between the elements. SR is considered in dynamical and nondynamical (threshold) systems. The SR effect is analyzed from the viewpoint of information and entropy characteristics of the signal, which determine the degree of order or self-organization in the system. Applications of the SR concept to explaining the results of a series of biological experiments are discussed. (reviews of topical problems)

Stochastic resonance: noise-enhanced order

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anishchenko, Vadim S; Neiman, Arkady B [N.G. Chernyshevskii Saratov State University, Saratov (Russian Federation); Moss, F [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Missouri at St. Louis (United States); Shimansky-Geier, L [Humboldt University at Berlin (Germany)

1999-01-31

Stochastic resonance (SR) provides a glaring example of a noise-induced transition in a nonlinear system driven by an information signal and noise simultaneously. In the regime of SR some characteristics of the information signal (amplification factor, signal-to-noise ratio, the degrees of coherence and of order, etc.) at the output of the system are significantly improved at a certain optimal noise level. SR is realized only in nonlinear systems for which a noise-intensity-controlled characteristic time becomes available. In the present review the physical mechanism and methods of theoretical description of SR are briefly discussed. SR features determined by the structure of the information signal, noise statistics and properties of particular systems with SR are studied. A nontrivial phenomenon of stochastic synchronization defined as locking of the instantaneous phase and switching frequency of a bistable system by external periodic force is analyzed in detail. Stochastic synchronization is explored in single and coupled bistable oscillators, including ensembles. The effects of SR and stochastic synchronization of ensembles of stochastic resonators are studied both with and without coupling between the elements. SR is considered in dynamical and nondynamical (threshold) systems. The SR effect is analyzed from the viewpoint of information and entropy characteristics of the signal, which determine the degree of order or self-organization in the system. Applications of the SR concept to explaining the results of a series of biological experiments are discussed. (reviews of topical problems)

An efficient computational method for a stochastic dynamic lot-sizing problem under service-level constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tarim, S.A.; Ozen, U.; Dogru, M.K.; Rossi, R.

2011-01-01

We provide an efficient computational approach to solve the mixed integer programming (MIP) model developed by Tarim and Kingsman [8] for solving a stochastic lot-sizing problem with service level constraints under the static–dynamic uncertainty strategy. The effectiveness of the proposed method

Stochastic Community Assembly: Does It Matter in Microbial Ecology?

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jizhong; Ning, Daliang

2017-12-01

Understanding the mechanisms controlling community diversity, functions, succession, and biogeography is a central, but poorly understood, topic in ecology, particularly in microbial ecology. Although stochastic processes are believed to play nonnegligible roles in shaping community structure, their importance relative to deterministic processes is hotly debated. The importance of ecological stochasticity in shaping microbial community structure is far less appreciated. Some of the main reasons for such heavy debates are the difficulty in defining stochasticity and the diverse methods used for delineating stochasticity. Here, we provide a critical review and synthesis of data from the most recent studies on stochastic community assembly in microbial ecology. We then describe both stochastic and deterministic components embedded in various ecological processes, including selection, dispersal, diversification, and drift. We also describe different approaches for inferring stochasticity from observational diversity patterns and highlight experimental approaches for delineating ecological stochasticity in microbial communities. In addition, we highlight research challenges, gaps, and future directions for microbial community assembly research. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Stochastic search in structural optimization - Genetic algorithms and simulated annealing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajela, Prabhat

1993-01-01

An account is given of illustrative applications of genetic algorithms and simulated annealing methods in structural optimization. The advantages of such stochastic search methods over traditional mathematical programming strategies are emphasized; it is noted that these methods offer a significantly higher probability of locating the global optimum in a multimodal design space. Both genetic-search and simulated annealing can be effectively used in problems with a mix of continuous, discrete, and integer design variables.

Stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Borodin, Andrei N

2017-01-01

This book provides a rigorous yet accessible introduction to the theory of stochastic processes. A significant part of the book is devoted to the classic theory of stochastic processes. In turn, it also presents proofs of well-known results, sometimes together with new approaches. Moreover, the book explores topics not previously covered elsewhere, such as distributions of functionals of diffusions stopped at different random times, the Brownian local time, diffusions with jumps, and an invariance principle for random walks and local times. Supported by carefully selected material, the book showcases a wealth of examples that demonstrate how to solve concrete problems by applying theoretical results. It addresses a broad range of applications, focusing on concrete computational techniques rather than on abstract theory. The content presented here is largely self-contained, making it suitable for researchers and graduate students alike.

Stochastic chaos in a Duffing oscillator and its control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Cunli; Lei Youming; Fang Tong

2006-01-01

Stochastic chaos discussed here means a kind of chaotic responses in a Duffing oscillator with bounded random parameters under harmonic excitations. A system with random parameters is usually called a stochastic system. The modifier 'stochastic' here implies dependent on some random parameter. As the system itself is stochastic, so is the response, even under harmonic excitations alone. In this paper stochastic chaos and its control are verified by the top Lyapunov exponent of the system. A non-feedback control strategy is adopted here by adding an adjustable noisy phase to the harmonic excitation, so that the control can be realized by adjusting the noise level. It is found that by this control strategy stochastic chaos can be tamed down to the small neighborhood of a periodic trajectory or an equilibrium state. In the analysis the stochastic Duffing oscillator is first transformed into an equivalent deterministic nonlinear system by the Gegenbauer polynomial approximation, so that the problem of controlling stochastic chaos can be reduced into the problem of controlling deterministic chaos in the equivalent system. Then the top Lyapunov exponent of the equivalent system is obtained by Wolf's method to examine the chaotic behavior of the response. Numerical simulations show that the random phase control strategy is an effective way to control stochastic chaos

Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Wei; Xu Wei; Zhao Junfeng; Jin Yanfei

2007-01-01

On the basis of the work of Goodwin and Puu, a new business cycle model subject to a stochastically parametric excitation is derived in this paper. At first, we reduce the model to a one-dimensional diffusion process by applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi-nonintegrable Hamiltonian system. Secondly, we utilize the methods of Lyapunov exponent and boundary classification associated with diffusion process respectively to analyze the stochastic stability of the trivial solution of system. The numerical results obtained illustrate that the trivial solution of system must be globally stable if it is locally stable in the state space. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic Hopf bifurcation of the business cycle model according to the qualitative changes in stationary probability density of system response. It is concluded that the stochastic Hopf bifurcation occurs at two critical parametric values. Finally, some explanations are given in a simply way on the potential applications of stochastic stability and bifurcation analysis

Problems of Mathematical Finance by Stochastic Control Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Stettner, Łukasz

The purpose of this paper is to present main ideas of mathematics of finance using the stochastic control methods. There is an interplay between stochastic control and mathematics of finance. On the one hand stochastic control is a powerful tool to study financial problems. On the other hand financial applications have stimulated development in several research subareas of stochastic control in the last two decades. We start with pricing of financial derivatives and modeling of asset prices, studying the conditions for the absence of arbitrage. Then we consider pricing of defaultable contingent claims. Investments in bonds lead us to the term structure modeling problems. Special attention is devoted to historical static portfolio analysis called Markowitz theory. We also briefly sketch dynamic portfolio problems using viscosity solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, martingale-convex analysis method or stochastic maximum principle together with backward stochastic differential equation. Finally, long time portfolio analysis for both risk neutral and risk sensitive functionals is introduced.

Stochastic goal-oriented error estimation with memory

Science.gov (United States)

Ackmann, Jan; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter

2017-11-01

We propose a stochastic dual-weighted error estimator for the viscous shallow-water equation with boundaries. For this purpose, previous work on memory-less stochastic dual-weighted error estimation is extended by incorporating memory effects. The memory is introduced by describing the local truncation error as a sum of time-correlated random variables. The random variables itself represent the temporal fluctuations in local truncation errors and are estimated from high-resolution information at near-initial times. The resulting error estimator is evaluated experimentally in two classical ocean-type experiments, the Munk gyre and the flow around an island. In these experiments, the stochastic process is adapted locally to the respective dynamical flow regime. Our stochastic dual-weighted error estimator is shown to provide meaningful error bounds for a range of physically relevant goals. We prove, as well as show numerically, that our approach can be interpreted as a linearized stochastic-physics ensemble.

Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan

2015-10-26

Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan; Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Salama, Khaled N.

2015-01-01

Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

Stochasticity and transport in Hamiltonian systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKay, R.S.; Meiss, J.D.; Percival, I.C.

1983-08-01

The theory of transport in nonlinear dynamics is developed in terms of leaky barriers which remain when invariant tori are destroyed. We describe the organization of stochastic motion by these barriers and give an explanation of long-time correlations in the stochastic regime

Stochastic quantization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klauder, J.R.

1983-01-01

The author provides an introductory survey to stochastic quantization in which he outlines this new approach for scalar fields, gauge fields, fermion fields, and condensed matter problems such as electrons in solids and the statistical mechanics of quantum spins. (Auth.)

Long-time correlations in the stochastic regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karney, C.F.F.

1982-11-01

The phase space for Hamiltonians of two degrees of freedom is usually divided into stochastic and integrable components. Even when well into the stochastic regime, integrable orbits may surround small stable regions or islands. The effect of these islands on the correlation function for the stochastic trajectories is examined. Depending on the value of the parameter describing the rotation number for the elliptic fixed point at the center of the island, the long-time correlation function may decay as t -5 or exponentially, but more commonly it decays much more slowly (roughly as t -1 ). As a consequence these small islands may have a profound effect on the properties such as the diffusion coefficient, of the stochastic orbits

Stochastic development regression using method of moments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kühnel, Line; Sommer, Stefan Horst

2017-01-01

This paper considers the estimation problem arising when inferring parameters in the stochastic development regression model for manifold valued non-linear data. Stochastic development regression captures the relation between manifold-valued response and Euclidean covariate variables using...... the stochastic development construction. It is thereby able to incorporate several covariate variables and random effects. The model is intrinsically defined using the connection of the manifold, and the use of stochastic development avoids linearizing the geometry. We propose to infer parameters using...... the Method of Moments procedure that matches known constraints on moments of the observations conditional on the latent variables. The performance of the model is investigated in a simulation example using data on finite dimensional landmark manifolds....

Introduction to stochastic analysis integrals and differential equations

CERN Document Server

Mackevicius, Vigirdas

2013-01-01

This is an introduction to stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations written in an understandable way for a wide audience, from students of mathematics to practitioners in biology, chemistry, physics, and finances. The presentation is based on the naïve stochastic integration, rather than on abstract theories of measure and stochastic processes. The proofs are rather simple for practitioners and, at the same time, rather rigorous for mathematicians. Detailed application examples in natural sciences and finance are presented. Much attention is paid to simulation diffusion pro

Memristor-based neural networks: Synaptic versus neuronal stochasticity

KAUST Repository

Naous, Rawan

2016-11-02

In neuromorphic circuits, stochasticity in the cortex can be mapped into the synaptic or neuronal components. The hardware emulation of these stochastic neural networks are currently being extensively studied using resistive memories or memristors. The ionic process involved in the underlying switching behavior of the memristive elements is considered as the main source of stochasticity of its operation. Building on its inherent variability, the memristor is incorporated into abstract models of stochastic neurons and synapses. Two approaches of stochastic neural networks are investigated. Aside from the size and area perspective, the impact on the system performance, in terms of accuracy, recognition rates, and learning, among these two approaches and where the memristor would fall into place are the main comparison points to be considered.

Time-ordered product expansions for computational stochastic system biology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mjolsness, Eric

2013-01-01

The time-ordered product framework of quantum field theory can also be used to understand salient phenomena in stochastic biochemical networks. It is used here to derive Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) for chemical reaction networks; consequently, the SSA can be interpreted in terms of Feynman diagrams. It is also used here to derive other, more general simulation and parameter-learning algorithms including simulation algorithms for networks of stochastic reaction-like processes operating on parameterized objects, and also hybrid stochastic reaction/differential equation models in which systems of ordinary differential equations evolve the parameters of objects that can also undergo stochastic reactions. Thus, the time-ordered product expansion can be used systematically to derive simulation and parameter-fitting algorithms for stochastic systems. (paper)

Stochastic profit-based scheduling of industrial virtual power plant using the best demand response strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nosratabadi, Seyyed Mostafa; Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah; Gholipour, Eskandar

2016-01-01

Highlights: • VPPs and IVPPs are defined for energy management of aggregated generations. • IVPP can manage industrial microgrid containing some relevant load and generation. • A stochastic modeling is proposed to schedule optimal generations in competition market. • Wind generation and day-ahead and spot market prices are considered to be stochastic. • A new DRL program selection scheme is presented in the scheduling procedure. - Abstract: One of the main classified microgrids in a power system is the industrial microgrid. Due to its behaviors and the heavy loads, its energy management is challengeable. Virtual Power Plant (VPP) can be an important concept in managing such problems in this kind of grids. Here, a transmission power system is considered as a Regional Electric Company (REC) and the VPPs comprising Distributed Generation (DG) units and Demand Response Loads (DRLs) are determined in this system. This paper focuses on Industrial VPP (IVPP) and its management. An IVPP can be determined as a management unit comprising generations and loads in an industrial microgrid. Since the scheduling procedure for these units is very important for their participation in a short-term electric market, a stochastic formulation is proposed for power scheduling in VPPs especially in IVPPs in this paper. By introducing the DRL programs and using the proposed modeling, the operator can select the best DRL program for each VPP in a scheduling procedure. In this regard, a suitable approach is presented to determine the proposed formulation and its solution in a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP). To validate the performance of the proposed method, the IEEE Reliability Test System (IEEE-RTS) is considered to apply the method on it, while some challenging aspects are presented.

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laia, R.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Melíco, R.; Mendes, V.M.F.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The management of thermal power plants is considered for different emission allowance levels. • The uncertainty on electricity price is considered by a set of scenarios. • A stochastic MILP approach allows devising the bidding strategies and hedging against price uncertainty and emission allowances. - Abstract: This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies

American option pricing with stochastic volatility processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping LI

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to solve the problem of option pricing more perfectly, the option pricing problem with Heston stochastic volatility model is considered. The optimal implementation boundary of American option and the conditions for its early execution are analyzed and discussed. In view of the fact that there is no analytical American option pricing formula, through the space discretization parameters, the stochastic partial differential equation satisfied by American options with Heston stochastic volatility is transformed into the corresponding differential equations, and then using high order compact finite difference method, numerical solutions are obtained for the option price. The numerical experiments are carried out to verify the theoretical results and simulation. The two kinds of optimal exercise boundaries under the conditions of the constant volatility and the stochastic volatility are compared, and the results show that the optimal exercise boundary also has stochastic volatility. Under the setting of parameters, the behavior and the nature of volatility are analyzed, the volatility curve is simulated, the calculation results of high order compact difference method are compared, and the numerical option solution is obtained, so that the method is verified. The research result provides reference for solving the problems of option pricing under stochastic volatility such as multiple underlying asset option pricing and barrier option pricing.

Foundations of stochastic analysis

CERN Document Server

Rao, M M; Lukacs, E

1981-01-01

Foundations of Stochastic Analysis deals with the foundations of the theory of Kolmogorov and Bochner and its impact on the growth of stochastic analysis. Topics covered range from conditional expectations and probabilities to projective and direct limits, as well as martingales and likelihood ratios. Abstract martingales and their applications are also discussed. Comprised of five chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic Kolmogorov-Bochner theorem, followed by a discussion on conditional expectations and probabilities containing several characterizations of operators and mea

Spatial stochasticity and non-continuum effects in gas flows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dadzie, S. Kokou, E-mail: k.dadzie@glyndwr.ac.uk [Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, Glyndwr University, Mold Road, Wrexham LL11 2AW (United Kingdom); Reese, Jason M., E-mail: jason.reese@strath.ac.uk [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XJ (United Kingdom)

2012-02-06

We investigate the relationship between spatial stochasticity and non-continuum effects in gas flows. A kinetic model for a dilute gas is developed using strictly a stochastic molecular model reasoning, without primarily referring to either the Liouville or the Boltzmann equations for dilute gases. The kinetic equation, a stochastic version of the well-known deterministic Boltzmann equation for dilute gas, is then associated with a set of macroscopic equations for the case of a monatomic gas. Tests based on a heat conduction configuration and sound wave dispersion show that spatial stochasticity can explain some non-continuum effects seen in gases. -- Highlights: ► We investigate effects of molecular spatial stochasticity in non-continuum regime. ► Present a simplify spatial stochastic kinetic equation. ► Present a spatial stochastic macroscopic flow equations. ► Show effects of the new model on sound wave dispersion prediction. ► Show effects of the new approach in density profiles in a heat conduction.

Universality in stochastic exponential growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer-Biswas, Srividya; Crooks, Gavin E; Scherer, Norbert F; Dinner, Aaron R

2014-07-11

Recent imaging data for single bacterial cells reveal that their mean sizes grow exponentially in time and that their size distributions collapse to a single curve when rescaled by their means. An analogous result holds for the division-time distributions. A model is needed to delineate the minimal requirements for these scaling behaviors. We formulate a microscopic theory of stochastic exponential growth as a Master Equation that accounts for these observations, in contrast to existing quantitative models of stochastic exponential growth (e.g., the Black-Scholes equation or geometric Brownian motion). Our model, the stochastic Hinshelwood cycle (SHC), is an autocatalytic reaction cycle in which each molecular species catalyzes the production of the next. By finding exact analytical solutions to the SHC and the corresponding first passage time problem, we uncover universal signatures of fluctuations in exponential growth and division. The model makes minimal assumptions, and we describe how more complex reaction networks can reduce to such a cycle. We thus expect similar scalings to be discovered in stochastic processes resulting in exponential growth that appear in diverse contexts such as cosmology, finance, technology, and population growth.

Stochastic quasi-gradient based optimization algorithms for dynamic reliability applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourgeois, F.; Labeau, P.E.

2001-01-01

On one hand, PSA results are increasingly used in decision making, system management and optimization of system design. On the other hand, when severe accidental transients are considered, dynamic reliability appears appropriate to account for the complex interaction between the transitions between hardware configurations, the operator behavior and the dynamic evolution of the system. This paper presents an exploratory work in which the estimation of the system unreliability in a dynamic context is coupled with an optimization algorithm to determine the 'best' safety policy. Because some reliability parameters are likely to be distributed, the cost function to be minimized turns out to be a random variable. Stochastic programming techniques are therefore envisioned to determine an optimal strategy. Monte Carlo simulation is used at all stages of the computations, from the estimation of the system unreliability to that of the stochastic quasi-gradient. The optimization algorithm is illustrated on a HNO 3 supply system

High-speed Stochastic Fatigue Testing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brincker, Rune; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1990-01-01

Good stochastic fatigue tests are difficult to perform. One of the major reasons is that ordinary servohydraulic loading systems realize the prescribed load history accurately at very low testing speeds only. If the speeds used for constant amplitude testing are applied to stochastic fatigue...

STOCHASTIC GRADIENT METHODS FOR UNCONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Krejić

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This papers presents an overview of gradient based methods for minimization of noisy functions. It is assumed that the objective functions is either given with error terms of stochastic nature or given as the mathematical expectation. Such problems arise in the context of simulation based optimization. The focus of this presentation is on the gradient based Stochastic Approximation and Sample Average Approximation methods. The concept of stochastic gradient approximation of the true gradient can be successfully extended to deterministic problems. Methods of this kind are presented for the data fitting and machine learning problems.

SATA II - Stochastic Algebraic Topology and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-30

AFRL-AFOSR-UK-TR-2017-0018 SATA II - Stochastic Algebraic Topology and Applications 150032 Robert Adler TECHNION ISRAEL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Final...REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 Dec 2014 to 14 Dec 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE SATA II - Stochastic Algebraic Topology and Applications... Topology and Applications Continuation of, and associated with SATA: Stochastic Algebraic Topology and Applications FA8655-11-1-3039, 09/1/2011–08/31/2014

Stochastic growth of localized plasma waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, P.A.; Cairns, Iver H.

2001-01-01

Localized bursty plasma waves are detected by spacecraft in many space plasmas. The large spatiotemporal scales involved imply that beam and other instabilities relax to marginal stability and that mean wave energies are low. Stochastic wave growth occurs when ambient fluctuations perturb the system, causing fluctuations about marginal stability. This yields regions where growth is enhanced and others where damping is increased; bursts are associated with enhanced growth and can occur even when the mean growth rate is negative. In stochastic growth, energy loss from the source is suppressed relative to secular growth, preserving it far longer than otherwise possible. Linear stochastic growth can operate at wave levels below thresholds of nonlinear wave-clumping mechanisms such as strong-turbulence modulational instability and is not subject to their coherence and wavelength limits. These mechanisms can be distinguished by statistics of the fields, whose strengths are lognormally distributed if stochastically growing and power-law distributed in strong turbulence. Recent applications of stochastic growth theory (SGT) are described, involving bursty plasma waves and unstable particle distributions in type III solar radio sources, the Earth's foreshock, magnetosheath, and polar cap regions. It is shown that when combined with wave-wave processes, SGT also accounts for associated radio emissions

Memristors Empower Spiking Neurons With Stochasticity

KAUST Repository

Al-Shedivat, Maruan

2015-06-01

Recent theoretical studies have shown that probabilistic spiking can be interpreted as learning and inference in cortical microcircuits. This interpretation creates new opportunities for building neuromorphic systems driven by probabilistic learning algorithms. However, such systems must have two crucial features: 1) the neurons should follow a specific behavioral model, and 2) stochastic spiking should be implemented efficiently for it to be scalable. This paper proposes a memristor-based stochastically spiking neuron that fulfills these requirements. First, the analytical model of the memristor is enhanced so it can capture the behavioral stochasticity consistent with experimentally observed phenomena. The switching behavior of the memristor model is demonstrated to be akin to the firing of the stochastic spike response neuron model, the primary building block for probabilistic algorithms in spiking neural networks. Furthermore, the paper proposes a neural soma circuit that utilizes the intrinsic nondeterminism of memristive switching for efficient spike generation. The simulations and analysis of the behavior of a single stochastic neuron and a winner-take-all network built of such neurons and trained on handwritten digits confirm that the circuit can be used for building probabilistic sampling and pattern adaptation machinery in spiking networks. The findings constitute an important step towards scalable and efficient probabilistic neuromorphic platforms. © 2011 IEEE.

Stochasticity in materials structure, properties, and processing—A review

Science.gov (United States)

Hull, Robert; Keblinski, Pawel; Lewis, Dan; Maniatty, Antoinette; Meunier, Vincent; Oberai, Assad A.; Picu, Catalin R.; Samuel, Johnson; Shephard, Mark S.; Tomozawa, Minoru; Vashishth, Deepak; Zhang, Shengbai

2018-03-01

We review the concept of stochasticity—i.e., unpredictable or uncontrolled fluctuations in structure, chemistry, or kinetic processes—in materials. We first define six broad classes of stochasticity: equilibrium (thermodynamic) fluctuations; structural/compositional fluctuations; kinetic fluctuations; frustration and degeneracy; imprecision in measurements; and stochasticity in modeling and simulation. In this review, we focus on the first four classes that are inherent to materials phenomena. We next develop a mathematical framework for describing materials stochasticity and then show how it can be broadly applied to these four materials-related stochastic classes. In subsequent sections, we describe structural and compositional fluctuations at small length scales that modify material properties and behavior at larger length scales; systems with engineered fluctuations, concentrating primarily on composite materials; systems in which stochasticity is developed through nucleation and kinetic phenomena; and configurations in which constraints in a given system prevent it from attaining its ground state and cause it to attain several, equally likely (degenerate) states. We next describe how stochasticity in these processes results in variations in physical properties and how these variations are then accentuated by—or amplify—stochasticity in processing and manufacturing procedures. In summary, the origins of materials stochasticity, the degree to which it can be predicted and/or controlled, and the possibility of using stochastic descriptions of materials structure, properties, and processing as a new degree of freedom in materials design are described.

PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SCENARIO-GENERATION METHODS APPLIED TO A STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alan Delgado de Oliveira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.

Theory, technology, and technique of stochastic cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marriner, J.

1993-10-01

The theory and technological implementation of stochastic cooling is described. Theoretical and technological limitations are discussed. Data from existing stochastic cooling systems are shown to illustrate some useful techniques

Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakatos, Eszter; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H.

2015-01-01

Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs

Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lakatos, Eszter, E-mail: e.lakatos13@imperial.ac.uk; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H., E-mail: m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, Centre for Integrative Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2015-09-07

Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs.

Stochasticity induced by coherent wavepackets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, V.; Krapchev, V.; Ram, A.; Bers, A.

1983-02-01

We consider the momentum transfer and diffusion of electrons periodically interacting with a coherent longitudinal wavepacket. Such a problem arises, for example, in lower-hybrid current drive. We establish the stochastic threshold, the stochastic region δv/sub stoch/ in velocity space, the associated momentum transfer j, and the diffusion coefficient D. We concentrate principally on the weak-field regime, tau/sub autocorrelation/ < tau/sub bounce/

Stochastic efficiency: five case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proesmans, Karel; Broeck, Christian Van den

2015-01-01

Stochastic efficiency is evaluated in five case studies: driven Brownian motion, effusion with a thermo-chemical and thermo-velocity gradient, a quantum dot and a model for information to work conversion. The salient features of stochastic efficiency, including the maximum of the large deviation function at the reversible efficiency, are reproduced. The approach to and extrapolation into the asymptotic time regime are documented. (paper)

Stochastic quantization and gauge invariance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viana, R.L.

1987-01-01

A survey of the fundamental ideas about Parisi-Wu's Stochastic Quantization Method, with applications to Scalar, Gauge and Fermionic theories, is done. In particular, the Analytic Stochastic Regularization Scheme is used to calculate the polarization tensor for Quantum Electrodynamics with Dirac bosons or Fermions. The regularization influence is studied for both theories and an extension of this method for some supersymmetrical models is suggested. (author)

Beam life-time with intrabeam scattering and stochastic cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, J.; Ruggiero, A.G.

1991-01-01

A transport equation has been derived in terms of the longitudinal action variable to describe the time evolution of the longitudinal density distribution of a bunched hadron beam in the presence of intrabeam scattering and stochastic cooling. A computer program has been developed to numerically solve this equation. Both beam loss and bunch-shape evolution have been investigated for the 197 Au 79+ beams during the 10-hour storage in the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider currently under construction at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. 9 refs., 1 fig

An inexact fuzzy two-stage stochastic model for quantifying the efficiency of nonpoint source effluent trading under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, B.; Maqsood, I.; Huang, G.H.; Yin, Y.Y.; Han, D.J.

2005-01-01

Reduction of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution from agricultural lands is a major concern in most countries. One method to reduce NPS pollution is through land retirement programs. This method, however, may result in enormous economic costs especially when large sums of croplands need to be retired. To reduce the cost, effluent trading can be employed to couple with land retirement programs. However, the trading efforts can also become inefficient due to various uncertainties existing in stochastic, interval, and fuzzy formats in agricultural systems. Thus, it is desired to develop improved methods to effectively quantify the efficiency of potential trading efforts by considering those uncertainties. In this respect, this paper presents an inexact fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming model to tackle such problems. The proposed model can facilitate decision-making to implement trading efforts for agricultural NPS pollution reduction through land retirement programs. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through a hypothetical effluent trading program within a subcatchment of the Lake Tai Basin in China. The study results indicate that the efficiency of the trading program is significantly influenced by precipitation amount, agricultural activities, and level of discharge limits of pollutants. The results also show that the trading program will be more effective for low precipitation years and with stricter discharge limits

Stochastic Thermodynamics: A Dynamical Systems Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanmay Rajpurohit

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an energy-based, large-scale dynamical system model driven by Markov diffusion processes to present a unified framework for statistical thermodynamics predicated on a stochastic dynamical systems formalism. Specifically, using a stochastic state space formulation, we develop a nonlinear stochastic compartmental dynamical system model characterized by energy conservation laws that is consistent with statistical thermodynamic principles. In particular, we show that the difference between the average supplied system energy and the average stored system energy for our stochastic thermodynamic model is a martingale with respect to the system filtration. In addition, we show that the average stored system energy is equal to the mean energy that can be extracted from the system and the mean energy that can be delivered to the system in order to transfer it from a zero energy level to an arbitrary nonempty subset in the state space over a finite stopping time.

Double stochastic matrices in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Louck, J.D.

1997-01-01

The general set of doubly stochastic matrices of order n corresponding to ordinary nonrelativistic quantum mechanical transition probability matrices is given. Lande's discussion of the nonquantal origin of such matrices is noted. Several concrete examples are presented for elementary and composite angular momentum systems with the focus on the unitary symmetry associated with such systems in the spirit of the recent work of Bohr and Ulfbeck. Birkhoff's theorem on doubly stochastic matrices of order n is reformulated in a geometrical language suitable for application to the subset of quantum mechanical doubly stochastic matrices. Specifically, it is shown that the set of points on the unit sphere in cartesian n'-space is subjective with the set of doubly stochastic matrices of order n. The question is raised, but not answered, as to what is the subset of points of this unit sphere that correspond to the quantum mechanical transition probability matrices, and what is the symmetry group of this subset of matrices

Stochastic space-time and quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frederick, C.

1976-01-01

Much of quantum mechanics may be derived if one adopts a very strong form of Mach's principle such that in the absence of mass, space-time becomes not flat, but stochastic. This is manifested in the metric tensor which is considered to be a collection of stochastic variables. The stochastic-metric assumption is sufficient to generate the spread of the wave packet in empty space. If one further notes that all observations of dynamical variables in the laboratory frame are contravariant components of tensors, and if one assumes that a Lagrangian can be constructed, then one can obtain an explanation of conjugate variables and also a derivation of the uncertainty principle. Finally the superposition of stochastic metrics and the identification of root -g in the four-dimensional invariant volume element root -g dV as the indicator of relative probability yields the phenomenon of interference as will be described for the two-slit experiment

Stochastic Effects; Application in Nuclear Physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazonka, O.

2000-04-01

Stochastic effects in nuclear physics refer to the study of the dynamics of nuclear systems evolving under stochastic equations of motion. In this dissertation we restrict our attention to classical scattering models. We begin with introduction of the model of nuclear dynamics and deterministic equations of evolution. We apply a Langevin approach - an additional property of the model, which reflect the statistical nature of low energy nuclear behaviour. We than concentrate our attention on the problem of calculating tails of distribution functions, which actually is the problem of calculating probabilities of rare outcomes. Two general strategies are proposed. Result and discussion follow. Finally in the appendix we consider stochastic effects in nonequilibrium systems. A few exactly solvable models are presented. For one model we show explicitly that stochastic behaviour in a microscopic description can lead to ordered collective effects on the macroscopic scale. Two others are solved to confirm the predictions of the fluctuation theorem. (author)

Perturbation theory for continuous stochastic equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chechetkin, V.R.; Lutovinov, V.S.

1987-01-01

The various general perturbational schemes for continuous stochastic equations are considered. These schemes have many analogous features with the iterational solution of Schwinger equation for S-matrix. The following problems are discussed: continuous stochastic evolution equations for probability distribution functionals, evolution equations for equal time correlators, perturbation theory for Gaussian and Poissonian additive noise, perturbation theory for birth and death processes, stochastic properties of systems with multiplicative noise. The general results are illustrated by diffusion-controlled reactions, fluctuations in closed systems with chemical processes, propagation of waves in random media in parabolic equation approximation, and non-equilibrium phase transitions in systems with Poissonian breeding centers. The rate of irreversible reaction X + X → A (Smoluchowski process) is calculated with the use of general theory based on continuous stochastic equations for birth and death processes. The threshold criterion and range of fluctuational region for synergetic phase transition in system with Poissonian breeding centers are also considered. (author)

Stochastic models in reliability and maintenance

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main­ tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which cla...

A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

Stochastic models of cell motility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gradinaru, Cristian

2012-01-01

Cell motility and migration are central to the development and maintenance of multicellular organisms, and errors during this process can lead to major diseases. Consequently, the mechanisms and phenomenology of cell motility are currently under intense study. In recent years, a new...... interdisciplinary field focusing on the study of biological processes at the nanoscale level, with a range of technological applications in medicine and biological research, has emerged. The work presented in this thesis is at the interface of cell biology, image processing, and stochastic modeling. The stochastic...... models introduced here are based on persistent random motion, which I apply to real-life studies of cell motility on flat and nanostructured surfaces. These models aim to predict the time-dependent position of cell centroids in a stochastic manner, and conversely determine directly from experimental...

Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Harpa

2007-01-01

In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

Stochastic dynamics and control

CERN Document Server

Sun, Jian-Qiao; Zaslavsky, George

2006-01-01

This book is a result of many years of author's research and teaching on random vibration and control. It was used as lecture notes for a graduate course. It provides a systematic review of theory of probability, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. The feedback control is also reviewed in the book. Random vibration analyses of SDOF, MDOF and continuous structural systems are presented in a pedagogical order. The application of the random vibration theory to reliability and fatigue analysis is also discussed. Recent research results on fatigue analysis of non-Gaussian stress proc

Sizing for fuel cell/supercapacitor hybrid vehicles based on stochastic driving cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feroldi, Diego; Carignano, Mauro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A sizing procedure based on the fulfilment of real driving conditions is proposed. • A methodology to generate long-term stochastic driving cycles is proposed. • A parametric optimization of the real-time EMS is conducted. • A trade-off design is adopted from a Pareto front. • A comparison with optimal consumption via Dynamic Programming is performed. - Abstract: In this article, a methodology for the sizing and analysis of fuel cell/supercapacitor hybrid vehicles is presented. The proposed sizing methodology is based on the fulfilment of power requirements, including sustained speed tests and stochastic driving cycles. The procedure to generate driving cycles is also presented in this paper. The sizing algorithm explicitly accounts for the Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS). The performance is compared with optimal consumption, which is found using an off-line strategy via Dynamic Programming. The sizing methodology provides guidance for sizing the fuel cell and the supercapacitor number. The results also include analysis on oversizing the fuel cell and varying the parameters of the energy management strategy. The simulation results highlight the importance of integrating sizing and energy management into fuel cell hybrid vehicles.

Ambit processes and stochastic partial differential equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

Ambit processes are general stochastic processes based on stochastic integrals with respect to Lévy bases. Due to their flexible structure, they have great potential for providing realistic models for various applications such as in turbulence and finance. This papers studies the connection betwe...... ambit processes and solutions to stochastic partial differential equations. We investigate this relationship from two angles: from the Walsh theory of martingale measures and from the viewpoint of the Lévy noise analysis....

Multivariate Discrete First Order Stochastic Dominance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp, Finn; Østerdal, Lars Peter

This paper characterizes the principle of first order stochastic dominance in a multivariate discrete setting. We show that a distribution  f first order stochastic dominates distribution g if and only if  f can be obtained from g by iteratively shifting density from one outcome to another...

Stochastic growth of localized plasma waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robinson, P.A.; Cairns, I.H.

2000-01-01

Full text: Localized bursty plasma waves occur in many natural systems, where they are detected by spacecraft. The large spatiotemporal scales involved imply that beam and other instabilities relax to marginal stability and that mean wave energies are low. Stochastic wave growth occurs when ambient fluctuations perturb the wave-driver interaction, causing fluctuations about marginal stability. This yields regions where growth is enhanced and others where damping is increased; observed bursts are associated with enhanced growth and can occur even when the mean growth rate is negative. In stochastic growth, energy loss from the source is suppressed relative to secular growth, preserving it for much longer times and distances than otherwise possible. Linear stochastic growth can operate at wave levels below thresholds of nonlinear wave-clumping mechanisms such as strong-turbulence modulational instability and is not subject to their coherence and wavelength limits. Growth mechanisms can be distinguished by statistics of the fields, whose strengths are lognormally distributed if stochastically growing, power-law distributed in strong turbulence, and uniformly distributed in log under secular growth. After delineating stochastic growth and strong-turbulence regimes, recent applications of stochastic growth theory (SGT) are described, involving bursty plasma waves and unstable particle distributions in type II and III solar radio sources, foreshock regions upstream of the bow shocks of Earth and planets, and Earth's magnetosheath, auroras, and polar-caps. It is shown that when combined with wave-wave processes, SGT accounts for type II and III solar radio emissions. SGT thus removes longstanding problems in understanding persistent unstable distributions, bursty fields, and radio emissions observed in space

Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Distribution Unlimited Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...ADDRESS. Princeton University PO Box 0036 87 Prospect Avenue - 2nd floor Princeton, NJ 08544 -2020 14-Mar-2014 ABSTRACT Number of Papers published in...peer-reviewed journals: Number of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems Report Title

Stochastic Analysis and Related Topics

CERN Document Server

Ustunel, Ali

1988-01-01

The Silvri Workshop was divided into a short summer school and a working conference, producing lectures and research papers on recent developments in stochastic analysis on Wiener space. The topics treated in the lectures relate to the Malliavin calculus, the Skorohod integral and nonlinear functionals of white noise. Most of the research papers are applications of these subjects. This volume addresses researchers and graduate students in stochastic processes and theoretical physics.

Simulation and inference for stochastic processes with YUIMA a comprehensive R framework for SDEs and other stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Iacus, Stefano M

2018-01-01

The YUIMA package is the first comprehensive R framework based on S4 classes and methods which allows for the simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by Wiener process, Lévy processes or fractional Brownian motion, as well as CARMA processes. The package performs various central statistical analyses such as quasi maximum likelihood estimation, adaptive Bayes estimation, structural change point analysis, hypotheses testing, asynchronous covariance estimation, lead-lag estimation, LASSO model selection, and so on. YUIMA also supports stochastic numerical analysis by fast computation of the expected value of functionals of stochastic processes through automatic asymptotic expansion by means of the Malliavin calculus. All models can be multidimensional, multiparametric or non parametric.The book explains briefly the underlying theory for simulation and inference of several classes of stochastic processes and then presents both simulation experiments and applications to real data. Although these ...

Quantum stochastic calculus and representations of Lie superalgebras

CERN Document Server

Eyre, Timothy M W

1998-01-01

This book describes the representations of Lie superalgebras that are yielded by a graded version of Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus. Quantum stochastic calculus and grading theory are given concise introductions, extending readership to mathematicians and physicists with a basic knowledge of algebra and infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces. The develpment of an explicit formula for the chaotic expansion of a polynomial of quantum stochastic integrals is particularly interesting. The book aims to provide a self-contained exposition of what is known about Z_2-graded quantum stochastic calculus and to provide a framework for future research into this new and fertile area.

Renormalization group equations in the stochastic quantization scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pugnetti, S.

1987-01-01

We show that there exists a remarkable link between the stochastic quantization and the theory of critical phenomena and dynamical statistical systems. In the stochastic quantization of a field theory, the stochastic Green functions coverge to the quantum ones when the frictious time goes to infinity. We therefore use the typical techniques of the Renormalization Group equations developed in the framework of critical phenomena to discuss some features of the convergence of the stochastic theory. We are also able, in this way, to compute some dynamical critical exponents and give new numerical valuations for them. (orig.)

Renormalization in the stochastic quantization of field theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunelli, J.C.

1991-01-01

In the stochastic quantization scheme of Parisi and Wu the renormalization of the stochastic theory of some models in field theory is studied. Following the path integral approach for stochastic process the 1/N expansion of the non linear sigma model is performed and, using a Ward identity obtained, from a BRS symmetry of the effective action of this formulation. It is shown the renormalizability of the model. Using the Langevin approach for stochastic process the renormalizability of the massive Thirring model is studied showing perturbatively the vanishing of the renormalization group's beta functions at finite fictitious time. (author)

Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS: software for stochastic modeling of biochemical networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elston Timothy C

2004-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. Results We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS for efficientlyand accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solvesthe appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. Conclusions We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.

Quantum Ito's formula and stochastic evolutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, R.L.; Parthasarathy, K.R.

1984-01-01

Using only the Boson canonical commutation relations and the Riemann-Lebesgue integral we construct a simple theory of stochastic integrals and differentials with respect to the basic field operator processes. This leads to a noncommutative Ito product formula, a realisation of the classical Poisson process in Fock space which gives a noncommutative central limit theorem, the construction of solutions of certain noncommutative stochastic differential equations, and finally to the integration of certain irreversible equations of motion governed by semigroups of completely positive maps. The classical Ito product formula for stochastic differentials with respect to Brownian motion and the Poisson process is a special case. (orig.)

Stochastic synchronization of coupled neural networks with intermittent control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Xinsong; Cao Jinde

2009-01-01

In this Letter, we study the exponential stochastic synchronization problem for coupled neural networks with stochastic noise perturbations. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, inequality techniques, the properties of Weiner process, and adding different intermittent controllers, several sufficient conditions are obtained to ensure exponential stochastic synchronization of coupled neural networks with or without coupling delays under stochastic perturbations. These stochastic synchronization criteria are expressed in terms of several lower-dimensional linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and can be easily verified. Moreover, the results of this Letter are applicable to both directed and undirected weighted networks. A numerical example and its simulations are offered to show the effectiveness of our new results.

Laboratory Evidence for Stochastic Plasma-Wave Growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Austin, D. R.; Hole, M. J.; Robinson, P. A.; Cairns, Iver H.; Dallaqua, R.

2007-01-01

The first laboratory confirmation of stochastic growth theory is reported. Floating potential fluctuations are measured in a vacuum arc centrifuge using a Langmuir probe. Statistical analysis of the energy density reveals a lognormal distribution over roughly 2 orders of magnitude, with a high-field nonlinear cutoff whose spatial dependence is consistent with the predicted eigenmode profile. These results are consistent with stochastic growth and nonlinear saturation of a spatially extended eigenmode, the first evidence for stochastic growth of an extended structure

Comparison of Traditional Design Nonlinear Programming Optimization and Stochastic Methods for Structural Design

Science.gov (United States)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.

2010-01-01

Structural design generated by traditional method, optimization method and the stochastic design concept are compared. In the traditional method, the constraints are manipulated to obtain the design and weight is back calculated. In design optimization, the weight of a structure becomes the merit function with constraints imposed on failure modes and an optimization algorithm is used to generate the solution. Stochastic design concept accounts for uncertainties in loads, material properties, and other parameters and solution is obtained by solving a design optimization problem for a specified reliability. Acceptable solutions were produced by all the three methods. The variation in the weight calculated by the methods was modest. Some variation was noticed in designs calculated by the methods. The variation may be attributed to structural indeterminacy. It is prudent to develop design by all three methods prior to its fabrication. The traditional design method can be improved when the simplified sensitivities of the behavior constraint is used. Such sensitivity can reduce design calculations and may have a potential to unify the traditional and optimization methods. Weight versus reliabilitytraced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to mean valued design. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure. Weight can be reduced to a small value for a most failure-prone design. Probabilistic modeling of load and material properties remained a challenge.

Modelling biochemical reaction systems by stochastic differential equations with reflection.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Yuanling; Burrage, Kevin; Chen, Luonan

2016-05-07

In this paper, we gave a new framework for modelling and simulating biochemical reaction systems by stochastic differential equations with reflection not in a heuristic way but in a mathematical way. The model is computationally efficient compared with the discrete-state Markov chain approach, and it ensures that both analytic and numerical solutions remain in a biologically plausible region. Specifically, our model mathematically ensures that species numbers lie in the domain D, which is a physical constraint for biochemical reactions, in contrast to the previous models. The domain D is actually obtained according to the structure of the corresponding chemical Langevin equations, i.e., the boundary is inherent in the biochemical reaction system. A variant of projection method was employed to solve the reflected stochastic differential equation model, and it includes three simple steps, i.e., Euler-Maruyama method was applied to the equations first, and then check whether or not the point lies within the domain D, and if not perform an orthogonal projection. It is found that the projection onto the closure D¯ is the solution to a convex quadratic programming problem. Thus, existing methods for the convex quadratic programming problem can be employed for the orthogonal projection map. Numerical tests on several important problems in biological systems confirmed the efficiency and accuracy of this approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A compositional Translation of Stochastic Automata into Timed Automata

NARCIS (Netherlands)

d' Argenio, P.R.

We present a translation from stochastic automata [17, 16] into timed automata with deadlines [37, 13]. The translation preserves traces when the stochastic characteristics, namely the probability measures, are abstracted from the original stochastic automaton. Moreover, we show that the translation

Stochastic B-series and order conditions for exponential integrators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arara, Alemayehu Adugna; Debrabant, Kristian; Kværnø, Anne

2018-01-01

We discuss stochastic differential equations with a stiff linear part and their approximation by stochastic exponential integrators. Representing the exact and approximate solutions using B-series and rooted trees, we derive the order conditions for stochastic exponential integrators. The resulting...

Effluent trading in river systems through stochastic decision-making process: a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfagharipoor, Mohammad Amin; Ahmadi, Azadeh

2017-09-01

The objective of this paper is to provide an efficient framework for effluent trading in river systems. The proposed framework consists of two pessimistic and optimistic decision-making models to increase the executability of river water quality trading programs. The models used for this purpose are (1) stochastic fallback bargaining (SFB) to reach an agreement among wastewater dischargers and (2) stochastic multi-criteria decision-making (SMCDM) to determine the optimal treatment strategy. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to incorporate the uncertainty into analysis. This uncertainty arises from stochastic nature and the errors in the calculation of wastewater treatment costs. The results of river water quality simulation model are used as the inputs of models. The proposed models are used in a case study on the Zarjoub River in northern Iran to determine the best solution for the pollution load allocation. The best treatment alternatives selected by each model are imported, as the initial pollution discharge permits, into an optimization model developed for trading of pollution discharge permits among pollutant sources. The results show that the SFB-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 14,834 while providing a relative consensus among pollutant sources. Meanwhile, the SMCDM-based water pollution trading approach reduces the costs by US$ 218,852, but it is less acceptable by pollutant sources. Therefore, it appears that giving due attention to stability, or in other words acceptability of pollution trading programs for all pollutant sources, is an essential element of their success.

Fastest Rates for Stochastic Mirror Descent Methods

KAUST Repository

Hanzely, Filip; Richtarik, Peter

2018-01-01

Relative smoothness - a notion introduced by Birnbaum et al. (2011) and rediscovered by Bauschke et al. (2016) and Lu et al. (2016) - generalizes the standard notion of smoothness typically used in the analysis of gradient type methods. In this work we are taking ideas from well studied field of stochastic convex optimization and using them in order to obtain faster algorithms for minimizing relatively smooth functions. We propose and analyze two new algorithms: Relative Randomized Coordinate Descent (relRCD) and Relative Stochastic Gradient Descent (relSGD), both generalizing famous algorithms in the standard smooth setting. The methods we propose can be in fact seen as a particular instances of stochastic mirror descent algorithms. One of them, relRCD corresponds to the first stochastic variant of mirror descent algorithm with linear convergence rate.

Fastest Rates for Stochastic Mirror Descent Methods

KAUST Repository

Hanzely, Filip

2018-03-20

Relative smoothness - a notion introduced by Birnbaum et al. (2011) and rediscovered by Bauschke et al. (2016) and Lu et al. (2016) - generalizes the standard notion of smoothness typically used in the analysis of gradient type methods. In this work we are taking ideas from well studied field of stochastic convex optimization and using them in order to obtain faster algorithms for minimizing relatively smooth functions. We propose and analyze two new algorithms: Relative Randomized Coordinate Descent (relRCD) and Relative Stochastic Gradient Descent (relSGD), both generalizing famous algorithms in the standard smooth setting. The methods we propose can be in fact seen as a particular instances of stochastic mirror descent algorithms. One of them, relRCD corresponds to the first stochastic variant of mirror descent algorithm with linear convergence rate.

Extending Stochastic Network Calculus to Loss Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Luo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Loss is an important parameter of Quality of Service (QoS. Though stochastic network calculus is a very useful tool for performance evaluation of computer networks, existing studies on stochastic service guarantees mainly focused on the delay and backlog. Some efforts have been made to analyse loss by deterministic network calculus, but there are few results to extend stochastic network calculus for loss analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new parameter named loss factor into stochastic network calculus and then derive the loss bound through the existing arrival curve and service curve via this parameter. We then prove that our result is suitable for the networks with multiple input flows. Simulations show the impact of buffer size, arrival traffic, and service on the loss factor.

Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granita; Bahar, Arifah

2015-01-01

The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution

Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

2015-10-22

The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.

A generic methodology for the optimisation of sewer systems using stochastic programming and self-optimizing control.

Science.gov (United States)

Mauricio-Iglesias, Miguel; Montero-Castro, Ignacio; Mollerup, Ane L; Sin, Gürkan

2015-05-15

The design of sewer system control is a complex task given the large size of the sewer networks, the transient dynamics of the water flow and the stochastic nature of rainfall. This contribution presents a generic methodology for the design of a self-optimising controller in sewer systems. Such controller is aimed at keeping the system close to the optimal performance, thanks to an optimal selection of controlled variables. The definition of an optimal performance was carried out by a two-stage optimisation (stochastic and deterministic) to take into account both the overflow during the current rain event as well as the expected overflow given the probability of a future rain event. The methodology is successfully applied to design an optimising control strategy for a subcatchment area in Copenhagen. The results are promising and expected to contribute to the advance of the operation and control problem of sewer systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multistage stochastic optimization

CERN Document Server

Pflug, Georg Ch

2014-01-01

Multistage stochastic optimization problems appear in many ways in finance, insurance, energy production and trading, logistics and transportation, among other areas. They describe decision situations under uncertainty and with a longer planning horizon. This book contains a comprehensive treatment of today’s state of the art in multistage stochastic optimization.  It covers the mathematical backgrounds of approximation theory as well as numerous practical algorithms and examples for the generation and handling of scenario trees. A special emphasis is put on estimation and bounding of the modeling error using novel distance concepts, on time consistency and the role of model ambiguity in the decision process. An extensive treatment of examples from electricity production, asset liability management and inventory control concludes the book

A computer model of the biosphere, to estimate stochastic and non-stochastic effects of radionuclides on humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laurens, J.M.

1985-01-01

A computer code was written to model food chains in order to estimate the internal and external doses, for stochastic and non-stochastic effects, on humans (adults and infants). Results are given for 67 radionuclides, for unit concentration in water (1 Bq/L) and in atmosphere (1 Bq/m 3 )

Memory effects on stochastic resonance

Science.gov (United States)

Neiman, Alexander; Sung, Wokyung

1996-02-01

We study the phenomenon of stochastic resonance (SR) in a bistable system with internal colored noise. In this situation the system possesses time-dependent memory friction connected with noise via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, so that in the absence of periodic driving the system approaches the thermodynamic equilibrium state. For this non-Markovian case we find that memory usually suppresses stochastic resonance. However, for a large memory time SR can be enhanced by the memory.

Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spill, Fabian; Guerrero, Pilar; Alarcon, Tomas; Maini, Philip K.; Byrne, Helen

2015-01-01

Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries

Hybrid approaches for multiple-species stochastic reaction–diffusion models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spill, Fabian, E-mail: fspill@bu.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Boston University, 44 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guerrero, Pilar [Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Alarcon, Tomas [Centre de Recerca Matematica, Campus de Bellaterra, Edifici C, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Atonòma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain); Maini, Philip K. [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Byrne, Helen [Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Computational Biology Group, Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QD (United Kingdom)

2015-10-15

Reaction–diffusion models are used to describe systems in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, ecology and biology. The fundamental quantities in such models are individual entities such as atoms and molecules, bacteria, cells or animals, which move and/or react in a stochastic manner. If the number of entities is large, accounting for each individual is inefficient, and often partial differential equation (PDE) models are used in which the stochastic behaviour of individuals is replaced by a description of the averaged, or mean behaviour of the system. In some situations the number of individuals is large in certain regions and small in others. In such cases, a stochastic model may be inefficient in one region, and a PDE model inaccurate in another. To overcome this problem, we develop a scheme which couples a stochastic reaction–diffusion system in one part of the domain with its mean field analogue, i.e. a discretised PDE model, in the other part of the domain. The interface in between the two domains occupies exactly one lattice site and is chosen such that the mean field description is still accurate there. In this way errors due to the flux between the domains are small. Our scheme can account for multiple dynamic interfaces separating multiple stochastic and deterministic domains, and the coupling between the domains conserves the total number of particles. The method preserves stochastic features such as extinction not observable in the mean field description, and is significantly faster to simulate on a computer than the pure stochastic model. - Highlights: • A novel hybrid stochastic/deterministic reaction–diffusion simulation method is given. • Can massively speed up stochastic simulations while preserving stochastic effects. • Can handle multiple reacting species. • Can handle moving boundaries.

The appreciation of stochastic motion in particle accelerators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Symon, Keith; Sessler, Andrew

2003-01-01

A description is given of the analytic and numerical work, performed from July 1955 through August 1956, so as to develop, and then study, the process of making intense proton beams, suitable for colliding beams. It is shown how this investigation led, in a most natural way, to the realization that stochasticity can arise in a simple Hamiltonian system. Furthermore, the criterion for the onset of stochasticity was understood, and carefully studied, in two different situations. The first situation was the proposed (and subsequently used) ''stacking process'' for developing an intense beam, where stochasticity occurs as additional particles are added to the intense circulating beam. The second situation occurs when one seeks to develop ''stochastic accelerators'' in which particles are accelerated (continuously) by a collection of radio frequency systems. It was in the last connection that the well-known criterion for stochasticity, resonance overlap, was obtained

Filtering and control of stochastic jump hybrid systems

CERN Document Server

Yao, Xiuming; Zheng, Wei Xing

2016-01-01

This book presents recent research work on stochastic jump hybrid systems. Specifically, the considered stochastic jump hybrid systems include Markovian jump Ito stochastic systems, Markovian jump linear-parameter-varying (LPV) systems, Markovian jump singular systems, Markovian jump two-dimensional (2-D) systems, and Markovian jump repeated scalar nonlinear systems. Some sufficient conditions are first established respectively for the stability and performances of those kinds of stochastic jump hybrid systems in terms of solution of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Based on the derived analysis conditions, the filtering and control problems are addressed. The book presents up-to-date research developments and novel methodologies on stochastic jump hybrid systems. The contents can be divided into two parts: the first part is focused on robust filter design problem, while the second part is put the emphasis on robust control problem. These methodologies provide a framework for stability and performance analy...

Stochastic calculus an introduction through theory and exercises

CERN Document Server

Baldi, Paolo

2017-01-01

This book provides a comprehensive introduction to the theory of stochastic calculus and some of its applications. It is the only textbook on the subject to include more than two hundred exercises with complete solutions. After explaining the basic elements of probability, the author introduces more advanced topics such as Brownian motion, martingales and Markov processes. The core of the book covers stochastic calculus, including stochastic differential equations, the relationship to partial differential equations, numerical methods and simulation, as well as applications of stochastic processes to finance. The final chapter provides detailed solutions to all exercises, in some cases presenting various solution techniques together with a discussion of advantages and drawbacks of the methods used. Stochastic Calculus will be particularly useful to advanced undergraduate and graduate students wishing to acquire a solid understanding of the subject through the theory and exercises. Including full mathematical ...

100 years after Smoluchowski: stochastic processes in cell biology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holcman, D; Schuss, Z

2017-01-01

100 years after Smoluchowski introduced his approach to stochastic processes, they are now at the basis of mathematical and physical modeling in cellular biology: they are used for example to analyse and to extract features from a large number (tens of thousands) of single molecular trajectories or to study the diffusive motion of molecules, proteins or receptors. Stochastic modeling is a new step in large data analysis that serves extracting cell biology concepts. We review here Smoluchowski’s approach to stochastic processes and provide several applications for coarse-graining diffusion, studying polymer models for understanding nuclear organization and finally, we discuss the stochastic jump dynamics of telomeres across cell division and stochastic gene regulation. (topical review)

Parameter-free resolution of the superposition of stochastic signals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scholz, Teresa, E-mail: tascholz@fc.ul.pt [Center for Theoretical and Computational Physics, University of Lisbon (Portugal); Raischel, Frank [Center for Geophysics, IDL, University of Lisbon (Portugal); Closer Consulting, Av. Eng. Duarte Pacheco Torre 1 15" 0, 1070-101 Lisboa (Portugal); Lopes, Vitor V. [DEIO-CIO, University of Lisbon (Portugal); UTEC–Universidad de Ingeniería y Tecnología, Lima (Peru); Lehle, Bernd; Wächter, Matthias; Peinke, Joachim [Institute of Physics and ForWind, Carl-von-Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg (Germany); Lind, Pedro G. [Institute of Physics and ForWind, Carl-von-Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg (Germany); Institute of Physics, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück (Germany)

2017-01-30

This paper presents a direct method to obtain the deterministic and stochastic contribution of the sum of two independent stochastic processes, one of which is an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and the other a general (non-linear) Langevin process. The method is able to distinguish between the stochastic processes, retrieving their corresponding stochastic evolution equations. This framework is based on a recent approach for the analysis of multidimensional Langevin-type stochastic processes in the presence of strong measurement (or observational) noise, which is here extended to impose neither constraints nor parameters and extract all coefficients directly from the empirical data sets. Using synthetic data, it is shown that the method yields satisfactory results.

A Fractionally Integrated Wishart Stochastic Volatility Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2013-01-01

textabstractThere has recently been growing interest in modeling and estimating alternative continuous time multivariate stochastic volatility models. We propose a continuous time fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility (FIWSV) process. We derive the conditional Laplace transform of

A stochastic method for computing hadronic matrix elements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alexandrou, Constantia [Cyprus Univ., Nicosia (Cyprus). Dept. of Physics; The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus). Computational-based Science and Technology Research Center; Dinter, Simon; Drach, Vincent [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Jansen, Karl [Cyprus Univ., Nicosia (Cyprus). Dept. of Physics; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Hadjiyiannakou, Kyriakos [Cyprus Univ., Nicosia (Cyprus). Dept. of Physics; Renner, Dru B. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, VA (United States); Collaboration: European Twisted Mass Collaboration

2013-02-15

We present a stochastic method for the calculation of baryon three-point functions that is more versatile compared to the typically used sequential method. We analyze the scaling of the error of the stochastically evaluated three-point function with the lattice volume and find a favorable signal-to-noise ratio suggesting that our stochastic method can be used efficiently at large volumes to compute hadronic matrix elements.

Doubly stochastic radial basis function methods

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Fenglian; Yan, Liang; Ling, Leevan

2018-06-01

We propose a doubly stochastic radial basis function (DSRBF) method for function recoveries. Instead of a constant, we treat the RBF shape parameters as stochastic variables whose distribution were determined by a stochastic leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) estimation. A careful operation count is provided in order to determine the ranges of all the parameters in our methods. The overhead cost for setting up the proposed DSRBF method is O (n2) for function recovery problems with n basis. Numerical experiments confirm that the proposed method not only outperforms constant shape parameter formulation (in terms of accuracy with comparable computational cost) but also the optimal LOOCV formulation (in terms of both accuracy and computational cost).

Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimmel, Marek

2014-01-01

This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

A Stochastic Multi-Objective Chance-Constrained Programming Model for Water Supply Management in Xiaoqing River Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye Xu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a stochastic multi-objective chance-constrained programming model (SMOCCP was developed for tackling the water supply management problem. Two objectives were included in this model, which are the minimization of leakage loss amounts and total system cost, respectively. The traditional SCCP model required the random variables to be expressed in the normal distributions, although their statistical characteristics were suitably reflected by other forms. The SMOCCP model allows the random variables to be expressed in log-normal distributions, rather than general normal form. Possible solution deviation caused by irrational parameter assumption was avoided and the feasibility and accuracy of generated solutions were ensured. The water supply system in the Xiaoqing River watershed was used as a study case for demonstration. Under the context of various weight combinations and probabilistic levels, many types of solutions are obtained, which are expressed as a series of transferred amounts from water sources to treated plants, from treated plants to reservoirs, as well as from reservoirs to tributaries. It is concluded that the SMOCCP model could reflect the sketch of the studied region and generate desired water supply schemes under complex uncertainties. The successful application of the proposed model is expected to be a good example for water resource management in other watersheds.

Stochastic coalgebraic logic

CERN Document Server

Doberkat, Ernst-Erich

2009-01-01

Combining coalgebraic reasoning, stochastic systems and logic, this volume presents the principles of coalgebraic logic from a categorical perspective. Modal logics are also discussed, including probabilistic interpretations and an analysis of Kripke models.

Stochastic light-cone CTMRG: a new DMRG approach to stochastic models 02.50.Ey Stochastic processes; 64.60.Ht Dynamic critical phenomena; 02.70.-c Computational techniques; 05.10.Cc Renormalization group methods;

CERN Document Server

Kemper, A; Nishino, T; Schadschneider, A; Zittartz, J

2003-01-01

We develop a new variant of the recently introduced stochastic transfer matrix DMRG which we call stochastic light-cone corner-transfer-matrix DMRG (LCTMRG). It is a numerical method to compute dynamic properties of one-dimensional stochastic processes. As suggested by its name, the LCTMRG is a modification of the corner-transfer-matrix DMRG, adjusted by an additional causality argument. As an example, two reaction-diffusion models, the diffusion-annihilation process and the branch-fusion process are studied and compared with exact data and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the capability and accuracy of the new method. The number of possible Trotter steps of more than 10 sup 5 shows a considerable improvement on the old stochastic TMRG algorithm.

Analytic stochastic regularization and gange invariance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdalla, E.; Gomes, M.; Lima-Santos, A.

1986-05-01

A proof that analytic stochastic regularization breaks gauge invariance is presented. This is done by an explicit one loop calculation of the vaccum polarization tensor in scalar electrodynamics, which turns out not to be transversal. The counterterm structure, Langevin equations and the construction of composite operators in the general framework of stochastic quantization, are also analysed. (Author) [pt

Stochastic theory of fatigue corrosion

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Haiyun

1999-10-01

A stochastic theory of corrosion has been constructed. The stochastic equations are described giving the transportation corrosion rate and fluctuation corrosion coefficient. In addition the pit diameter distribution function, the average pit diameter and the most probable pit diameter including other related empirical formula have been derived. In order to clarify the effect of stress range on the initiation and growth behaviour of pitting corrosion, round smooth specimen were tested under cyclic loading in 3.5% NaCl solution.

Stochastic runaway of dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfirsch, D.; Graeff, P.

1984-10-01

One-dimensional, stochastic, dynamical systems are well studied with respect to their stability properties. Less is known for the higher dimensional case. This paper derives sufficient and necessary criteria for the asymptotic divergence of the entropy (runaway) and sufficient ones for the moments of n-dimensional, stochastic, dynamical systems. The crucial implication is the incompressibility of their flow defined by the equations of motion in configuration space. Two possible extensions to compressible flow systems are outlined. (orig.)

Optimal Liquidation under Stochastic Liquidity

OpenAIRE

Becherer, Dirk; Bilarev, Todor; Frentrup, Peter

2016-01-01

We solve explicitly a two-dimensional singular control problem of finite fuel type for infinite time horizon. The problem stems from the optimal liquidation of an asset position in a financial market with multiplicative and transient price impact. Liquidity is stochastic in that the volume effect process, which determines the inter-temporal resilience of the market in spirit of Predoiu, Shaikhet and Shreve (2011), is taken to be stochastic, being driven by own random noise. The optimal contro...

Applied probability and stochastic processes

CERN Document Server

Sumita, Ushio

1999-01-01

Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Cottrell, Paul Edward

There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

2000-01-01

Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

Stochastic samples versus vacuum expectation values in cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsamis, N.C.; Tzetzias, Aggelos; Woodard, R.P.

2010-01-01

Particle theorists typically use expectation values to study the quantum back-reaction on inflation, whereas many cosmologists stress the stochastic nature of the process. While expectation values certainly give misleading results for some things, such as the stress tensor, we argue that operators exist for which there is no essential problem. We quantify this by examining the stochastic properties of a noninteracting, massless, minimally coupled scalar on a locally de Sitter background. The square of the stochastic realization of this field seems to provide an example of great relevance for which expectation values are not misleading. We also examine the frequently expressed concern that significant back-reaction from expectation values necessarily implies large stochastic fluctuations between nearby spatial points. Rather than viewing the stochastic formalism in opposition to expectation values, we argue that it provides a marvelously simple way of capturing the leading infrared logarithm corrections to the latter, as advocated by Starobinsky

An introduction to stochastic processes with applications to biology

CERN Document Server

Allen, Linda J S

2010-01-01

An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Applications to Biology, Second Edition presents the basic theory of stochastic processes necessary in understanding and applying stochastic methods to biological problems in areas such as population growth and extinction, drug kinetics, two-species competition and predation, the spread of epidemics, and the genetics of inbreeding. Because of their rich structure, the text focuses on discrete and continuous time Markov chains and continuous time and state Markov processes.New to the Second EditionA new chapter on stochastic differential equations th

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

Science.gov (United States)

Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

2008-08-01

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

2008-01-01

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipton, Alex [Merrill Lynch, Mlfc Main, 2 King Edward Street, London EC1A 1HQ (United Kingdom); Sepp, Artur [Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080 (United States)], E-mail: Alex_Lipton@ml.com, E-mail: Artur_Sepp@ml.com

2008-08-29

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

Multiscale study on stochastic reconstructions of shale samples

Science.gov (United States)

Lili, J.; Lin, M.; Jiang, W. B.

2016-12-01

. The result indicates that the agreement between the original 3D sample and the generated stochastic realizations is excellent. This work is supported by "973" Program (2014CB239004), the Key Instrument Developing Project of the CAS (ZDYZ2012-1-08-02) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41574129).