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Sample records for stochastic predator-prey model

  1. Stochastic population oscillations in spatial predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taeuber, Uwe C

    2011-01-01

    It is well-established that including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions invalidates the classical deterministic Lotka-Volterra picture of neutral population cycles. In contrast, stochastic models yield long-lived, but ultimately decaying erratic population oscillations, which can be understood through a resonant amplification mechanism for density fluctuations. In Monte Carlo simulations of spatial stochastic predator-prey systems, one observes striking complex spatio-temporal structures. These spreading activity fronts induce persistent correlations between predators and prey. In the presence of local particle density restrictions (finite prey carrying capacity), there exists an extinction threshold for the predator population. The accompanying continuous non-equilibrium phase transition is governed by the directed-percolation universality class. We employ field-theoretic methods based on the Doi-Peliti representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models to (i) map the ensuing action in the vicinity of the absorbing state phase transition to Reggeon field theory, and (ii) to quantitatively address fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the population oscillation frequency, damping, and diffusion coefficients in the species coexistence phase.

  2. Influence of local carrying capacity restrictions on stochastic predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washenberger, Mark J; Mobilia, Mauro; Taeuber, Uwe C

    2007-01-01

    We study a stochastic lattice predator-prey system by means of Monte Carlo simulations that do not impose any restrictions on the number of particles per site, and discuss the similarities and differences of our results with those obtained for site-restricted model variants. In accord with the classic Lotka-Volterra mean-field description, both species always coexist in two dimensions. Yet competing activity fronts generate complex, correlated spatio-temporal structures. As a consequence, finite systems display transient erratic population oscillations with characteristic frequencies that are renormalized by fluctuations. For large reaction rates, when the processes are rendered more local, these oscillations are suppressed. In contrast with the site-restricted predator-prey model, we also observe species coexistence in one dimension. In addition, we report results on the steady-state prey age distribution

  3. Periodic Solution and Stationary Distribution of Stochastic Predator-Prey Models with Higher-Order Perturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, two stochastic predator-prey models with general functional response and higher-order perturbation are proposed and investigated. For the nonautonomous periodic case of the system, by using Khasminskii's theory of periodic solution, we show that the system admits a nontrivial positive T-periodic solution. For the system disturbed by both white and telegraph noises, sufficient conditions for positive recurrence and the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution to the solutions are established. The existence of stationary distribution implies stochastic weak stability to some extent.

  4. Stochastic mixed-mode oscillations in a three-species predator-prey model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadhu, Susmita; Kuehn, Christian

    2018-03-01

    The effect of demographic stochasticity, in the form of Gaussian white noise, in a predator-prey model with one fast and two slow variables is studied. We derive the stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from a discrete model. For suitable parameter values, the deterministic drift part of the model admits a folded node singularity and exhibits a singular Hopf bifurcation. We focus on the parameter regime near the Hopf bifurcation, where small amplitude oscillations exist as stable dynamics in the absence of noise. In this regime, the stochastic model admits noise-driven mixed-mode oscillations (MMOs), which capture the intermediate dynamics between two cycles of population outbreaks. We perform numerical simulations to calculate the distribution of the random number of small oscillations between successive spikes for varying noise intensities and distance to the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the effect of noise on a suitable Poincaré map. Finally, we prove that the stochastic model can be transformed into a normal form near the folded node, which can be linked to recent results on the interplay between deterministic and stochastic small amplitude oscillations. The normal form can also be used to study the parameter influence on the noise level near folded singularities.

  5. Extinction time of a stochastic predator-prey model by the generalized cell mapping method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Qun; Xu, Wei; Hu, Bing; Huang, Dongmei; Sun, Jian-Qiao

    2018-03-01

    The stochastic response and extinction time of a predator-prey model with Gaussian white noise excitations are studied by the generalized cell mapping (GCM) method based on the short-time Gaussian approximation (STGA). The methods for stochastic response probability density functions (PDFs) and extinction time statistics are developed. The Taylor expansion is used to deal with non-polynomial nonlinear terms of the model for deriving the moment equations with Gaussian closure, which are needed for the STGA in order to compute the one-step transition probabilities. The work is validated with direct Monte Carlo simulations. We have presented the transient responses showing the evolution from a Gaussian initial distribution to a non-Gaussian steady-state one. The effects of the model parameter and noise intensities on the steady-state PDFs are discussed. It is also found that the effects of noise intensities on the extinction time statistics are opposite to the effects on the limit probability distributions of the survival species.

  6. The modeling of predator-prey interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Shakil; H. A. Wahab; Muhammad Naeem, et al.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we aim to study the interactions between the territorial animals like foxes and the rabbits. The territories for the foxes are considered to be the simple cells. The interactions between predator and its prey are represented by the chemical reactions which obey the mass action law. In this sense, we apply the mass action law for predator prey models and the quasi chemical approach is applied for the interactions between the predator and its prey to develop the modeled equations...

  7. Complex dynamics of a stochastic discrete modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with Michaelis-Menten type prey harvesting

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    A. Elhassanein

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduced a stochastic discretized version of the modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with Michaelis-Menten type prey harvesting. The dynamical behavior of the proposed model was investigated. The existence and stability of the equilibria of the skeleton were studied. Numerical simulations were employed to show the model's complex dynamics by means of the largest Lyapunov exponents, bifurcations, time series diagrams and phase portraits. The effects of noise intensity on its dynamics and the intermittency phenomenon were also discussed via simulation.

  8. Limit Cycles in Predator-Prey Models

    OpenAIRE

    Puchuri Medina, Liliana

    2017-01-01

    The classic Lotka-Volterra model belongs to a family of differential equations known as “Generalized Lotka-Volterra”, which is part of a classification of four models of quadratic fields with center. These models have been studied to address the Hilbert infinitesimal problem, which consists in determine the number of limit cycles of a perturbed hamiltonian system with center. In this work, we first present an alternative proof of the existence of centers in Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models...

  9. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  10. Stochastic Predator-Prey Dynamics of Transposons in the Human Genome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Chi; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2016-11-01

    Transposable elements, or transposons, are DNA sequences that can jump from site to site in the genome during the life cycle of a cell, usually encoding the very enzymes which perform their excision. However, some transposons are parasitic, relying on the enzymes produced by the regular transposons. In this case, we show that a stochastic model, which takes into account the small copy numbers of the active transposons in a cell, predicts noise-induced predator-prey oscillations with a characteristic time scale that is much longer than the cell replication time, indicating that the state of the predator-prey oscillator is stored in the genome and transmitted to successive generations. Our work demonstrates the important role of the number fluctuations in the expression of mobile genetic elements, and shows explicitly how ecological concepts can be applied to the dynamics and fluctuations of living genomes.

  11. Bifurcation Behavior Analysis in a Predator-Prey Model

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    Nan Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A predator-prey model is studied mathematically and numerically. The aim is to explore how some key factors influence dynamic evolutionary mechanism of steady conversion and bifurcation behavior in predator-prey model. The theoretical works have been pursuing the investigation of the existence and stability of the equilibria, as well as the occurrence of bifurcation behaviors (transcritical bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, and Hopf bifurcation, which can deduce a standard parameter controlled relationship and in turn provide a theoretical basis for the numerical simulation. Numerical analysis ensures reliability of the theoretical results and illustrates that three stable equilibria will arise simultaneously in the model. It testifies the existence of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, too. It should also be stressed that the dynamic evolutionary mechanism of steady conversion and bifurcation behavior mainly depend on a specific key parameter. In a word, all these results are expected to be of use in the study of the dynamic complexity of ecosystems.

  12. Using process algebra to develop predator-prey models of within-host parasite dynamics.

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    McCaig, Chris; Fenton, Andy; Graham, Andrea; Shankland, Carron; Norman, Rachel

    2013-07-21

    As a first approximation of immune-mediated within-host parasite dynamics we can consider the immune response as a predator, with the parasite as its prey. In the ecological literature of predator-prey interactions there are a number of different functional responses used to describe how a predator reproduces in response to consuming prey. Until recently most of the models of the immune system that have taken a predator-prey approach have used simple mass action dynamics to capture the interaction between the immune response and the parasite. More recently Fenton and Perkins (2010) employed three of the most commonly used prey-dependent functional response terms from the ecological literature. In this paper we make use of a technique from computing science, process algebra, to develop mathematical models. The novelty of the process algebra approach is to allow stochastic models of the population (parasite and immune cells) to be developed from rules of individual cell behaviour. By using this approach in which individual cellular behaviour is captured we have derived a ratio-dependent response similar to that seen in the previous models of immune-mediated parasite dynamics, confirming that, whilst this type of term is controversial in ecological predator-prey models, it is appropriate for models of the immune system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Stationary Distribution and Extinction of Generalized Multispecies Stochastic Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey System

    OpenAIRE

    Yin, Fancheng; Yu, Xiaoyan

    2015-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the existence of stationary distribution and extinction for multispecies stochastic Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system. The contributions of this paper are as follows. (a) By using Lyapunov methods, the sufficient conditions on existence of stationary distribution and extinction are established. (b) By using the space decomposition technique and the continuity of probability, weaker conditions on extinction of the system are obtained. Finally, a numer...

  14. On multi-team predator-prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elettreby, M.F.; Saker, S.H.; Ahmed, E.

    2005-05-01

    Many creatures form teams. This has, at least, two main advantages: the first is the improvement in foraging, since looking for food in a team is more efficient than doing it alone. The second is that living in a team reduces predation risk due to early spotting of predators and that existing in a team gives a higher probability that the predator will attack another member of the team. In this paper models are given where two teams of predators interact with two teams of preys. The teams of each group (predators or preys) help each other. In this paper we propose three different versions of the multi-team predator prey model. We study the equilibrium solutions, the conditions of their local asymptotic stability, persistence and the global stability of the solution of one of the models. Some numerical simulations are done. (author)

  15. Extinction in a generalized Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model

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    Azmy S. Ackleh

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss the asymptotic behavior of a predator-prey model with distributed growth and mortality rates. We exhibit simple criteria on the parameters which guarantee that all subpopulations but one predator-prey pair are driven to extinction as t→∞. Finally, we present numerical simulations to illustrate the theoretical results.

  16. Embedding recurrent neural networks into predator-prey models.

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    Moreau, Yves; Louiès, Stephane; Vandewalle, Joos; Brenig, Leon

    1999-03-01

    We study changes of coordinates that allow the embedding of ordinary differential equations describing continuous-time recurrent neural networks into differential equations describing predator-prey models-also called Lotka-Volterra systems. We transform the equations for the neural network first into quasi-monomial form (Brenig, L. (1988). Complete factorization and analytic solutions of generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. Physics Letters A, 133(7-8), 378-382), where we express the vector field of the dynamical system as a linear combination of products of powers of the variables. In practice, this transformation is possible only if the activation function is the hyperbolic tangent or the logistic sigmoid. From this quasi-monomial form, we can directly transform the system further into Lotka-Volterra equations. The resulting Lotka-Volterra system is of higher dimension than the original system, but the behavior of its first variables is equivalent to the behavior of the original neural network. We expect that this transformation will permit the application of existing techniques for the analysis of Lotka-Volterra systems to recurrent neural networks. Furthermore, our results show that Lotka-Volterra systems are universal approximators of dynamical systems, just as are continuous-time neural networks.

  17. Traveling waves in a diffusive predator-prey model with holling type-III functional response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Wantong; Wu Shiliang

    2008-01-01

    We establish the existence of traveling wave solutions and small amplitude traveling wave train solutions for a reaction-diffusion system based on a predator-prey model with Holling type-III functional response. The analysis is in the three-dimensional phase space of the nonlinear ordinary differential equation system given by the diffusive predator-prey system in the traveling wave variable. The methods used to prove the results are the shooting argument, invariant manifold theory and the Hopf bifurcation theorem

  18. Adaptive behaviour and multiple equilibrium states in a predator-prey model.

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    Pimenov, Alexander; Kelly, Thomas C; Korobeinikov, Andrei; O'Callaghan, Michael J A; Rachinskii, Dmitrii

    2015-05-01

    There is evidence that multiple stable equilibrium states are possible in real-life ecological systems. Phenomenological mathematical models which exhibit such properties can be constructed rather straightforwardly. For instance, for a predator-prey system this result can be achieved through the use of non-monotonic functional response for the predator. However, while formal formulation of such a model is not a problem, the biological justification for such functional responses and models is usually inconclusive. In this note, we explore a conjecture that a multitude of equilibrium states can be caused by an adaptation of animal behaviour to changes of environmental conditions. In order to verify this hypothesis, we consider a simple predator-prey model, which is a straightforward extension of the classic Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. In this model, we made an intuitively transparent assumption that the prey can change a mode of behaviour in response to the pressure of predation, choosing either "safe" of "risky" (or "business as usual") behaviour. In order to avoid a situation where one of the modes gives an absolute advantage, we introduce the concept of the "cost of a policy" into the model. A simple conceptual two-dimensional predator-prey model, which is minimal with this property, and is not relying on odd functional responses, higher dimensionality or behaviour change for the predator, exhibits two stable co-existing equilibrium states with basins of attraction separated by a separatrix of a saddle point. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Periodic solutions of delayed predator-prey model with the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huo Haifeng [Institute of Applied Mathematics, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050 (China)]. E-mail: hfhuo@lut.cn; Li Wantong [Department of Mathematics, Lanzhou University Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 (China)]. E-mail: wtli@lzu.edu.cn; Nieto, Juan J. [Departamento de Analisis Matematico, Facultad de Matematicas, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela 15782 (Spain)]. E-mail: amnieto@usc.es

    2007-07-15

    By using the continuation theorem based on Gaines and Mawhin's coincidence degree, sufficient and realistic conditions are obtained for the global existence of positive periodic solutions for a delayed predator-prey model with the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response. Our results are applicable to state dependent and distributed delays.

  20. Permanence and asymptotic behaviors of stochastic predator-prey system with Markovian switching and Lévy noise

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    Wang, Sheng; Wang, Linshan; Wei, Tengda

    2018-04-01

    This paper concerns the dynamics of a stochastic predator-prey system with Markovian switching and Lévy noise. First, the existence and uniqueness of global positive solution to the system is proved. Then, by combining stochastic analytical techniques with M-matrix analysis, sufficient conditions of stochastic permanence and extinction are obtained. Furthermore, for the stochastic permanence case, by means of four constants related to the stationary probability distribution of the Markov chain and the parameters of the subsystems, both the superior limit and the inferior limit of the average in time of the sample path of the solution are estimated. Finally, our conclusions are illustrated through an example.

  1. Simulation and analysis of a model dinoflagellate predator-prey system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, M. J.; Antonelli, T.; Coyne, K. J.; Rossi, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of a model dinoflagellate predator-prey system and uses simulations to validate theoretical and experimental studies. A simple model for predator-prey interactions is derived by drawing upon analogies from chemical kinetics. This model is then modified to account for inefficiencies in predation. Simulation results are shown to closely match the model predictions. Additional simulations are then run which are based on experimental observations of predatory dinoflagellate behavior, and this study specifically investigates how the predatory dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum uses toxins to immobilize its prey and increase its feeding rate. These simulations account for complex dynamics that were not included in the basic models, and the results from these computational simulations closely match the experimentally observed predatory behavior of K. veneficum and reinforce the notion that predatory dinoflagellates utilize toxins to increase their feeding rate.

  2. a Predator-Prey Model Based on the Fully Parallel Cellular Automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Mingfeng; Ruan, Hongbo; Yu, Changliang

    We presented a predator-prey lattice model containing moveable wolves and sheep, which are characterized by Penna double bit strings. Sexual reproduction and child-care strategies are considered. To implement this model in an efficient way, we build a fully parallel Cellular Automata based on a new definition of the neighborhood. We show the roles played by the initial densities of the populations, the mutation rate and the linear size of the lattice in the evolution of this model.

  3. Matching allele dynamics and coevolution in a minimal predator-prey replicator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sardanyes, Josep; Sole, Ricard V.

    2008-01-01

    A minimal Lotka-Volterra type predator-prey model describing coevolutionary traits among entities with a strength of interaction influenced by a pair of haploid diallelic loci is studied with a deterministic time continuous model. We show a Hopf bifurcation governing the transition from evolutionary stasis to periodic Red Queen dynamics. If predator genotypes differ in their predation efficiency the more efficient genotype asymptotically achieves lower stationary concentrations

  4. Effects of degeneracy and response function in a diffusion predator-prey model

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    Li, Shanbing; Wu, Jianhua; Dong, Yaying

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we consider positive solutions of a diffusion predator-prey model with a degeneracy under the Dirichlet boundary conditions. We first obtain sufficient conditions of the existence of positive solutions by the Leray-Schauder degree theory, and then analyze the limiting behavior of positive solutions as the growth rate of the predator goes to infinity and the conversion rates of the predator goes to zero, respectively. It is shown that these results for Holling II response function (i.e. m  >  0) reveal interesting contrast with that for the classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model (i.e. m  =  0).

  5. An individual-based evolving predator-prey ecosystem simulation using a fuzzy cognitive map as the behavior model

    OpenAIRE

    Gras , Robin; Devaurs , Didier; Wozniak , Adrianna; Aspinall , Adam

    2009-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents an individual-based predator-prey model with, for the first time, each agent behavior being modeled by a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), allowing the evolution of the agent behavior through the epochs of the simulation. The FCM enables the agent to evaluate its environment (e.g., distance to predator/prey, distance to potential breeding partner, distance to food, energy level), its internal state (e.g., fear, hunger, curiosity) with memory and choosing s...

  6. Noise-induced extinction for a ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Partha Sarathi

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we study a stochastically forced ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey population. In the deterministic case, we show that the model exhibits the stable interior equilibrium point or limit cycle corresponding to the co-existence of both species. We investigate a probabilistic mechanism of the noise-induced extinction in a zone of stable interior equilibrium point. Computational methods based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique are applied for the analysis of the dispersion of random states near stable interior equilibrium point. This method allows to construct a confidence domain and estimate the threshold value of the noise intensity for a transition from the coexistence to the extinction.

  7. Pattern Formation in Predator-Prey Model with Delay and Cross Diffusion

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    Xinze Lian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the effect of time delay and cross diffusion on the dynamics of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model incorporating a prey refuge. Based on the stability analysis, we demonstrate that delayed feedback may generate Hopf and Turing instability under some conditions, resulting in spatial patterns. One of the most interesting findings is that the model exhibits complex pattern replication: the model dynamics exhibits a delay and diffusion controlled formation growth not only to spots, stripes, and holes, but also to spiral pattern self-replication. The results indicate that time delay and cross diffusion play important roles in pattern formation.

  8. Global Behavior for a Strongly Coupled Predator-Prey Model with One Resource and Two Consumers

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    Yujuan Jiao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a strongly coupled predator-prey model with one resource and two consumers, in which the first consumer species feeds on the resource according to the Holling II functional response, while the second consumer species feeds on the resource following the Beddington-DeAngelis functional response, and they compete for the common resource. Using the energy estimates and Gagliardo-Nirenberg-type inequalities, the existence and uniform boundedness of global solutions for the model are proved. Meanwhile, the sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium for this model are given by constructing a Lyapunov function.

  9. Dynamic Analysis of an Impulsively Controlled Predator-Prey Model with Holling Type IV Functional Response

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    Yanzhen Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic behavior of a predator-prey model with Holling type IV functional response is investigated with respect to impulsive control strategies. The model is analyzed to obtain the conditions under which the system is locally asymptotically stable and permanent. Existence of a positive periodic solution of the system and the boundedness of the system is also confirmed. Furthermore, numerical analysis is used to discover the influence of impulsive perturbations. The system is found to exhibit rich dynamics such as symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation, chaos, and nonunique dynamics.

  10. Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

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    Kooi, B W

    2015-12-01

    We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

  11. Coexistence for an Almost Periodic Predator-Prey Model with Intermittent Predation Driven by Discontinuous Prey Dispersal

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    Yantao Luo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An almost periodic predator-prey model with intermittent predation and prey discontinuous dispersal is studied in this paper, which differs from the classical continuous and impulsive dispersal predator-prey models. The intermittent predation behavior of the predator species only happens in the channels between two patches where the discontinuous migration movement of the prey species occurs. Using analytic approaches and comparison theorems of the impulsive differential equations, sufficient criteria on the boundedness, permanence, and coexistence for this system are established. Finally, numerical simulations demonstrate that, for an intermittent predator-prey model, both the intermittent predation and intrinsic growth rates of the prey and predator species can greatly impact the permanence, extinction, and coexistence of the population.

  12. Dynamical study of a chaotic predator-prey model with an omnivore

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    Al-khedhairi, A.; Elsadany, A. A.; Elsonbaty, A.; Abdelwahab, A. G.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, the dynamics and bifurcations of a three-species predator-prey model with an omnivore are further investigated. The food web considered in this work comprises prey, predator and a third species, which consumes the carcasses of the predator along with predation of the original prey. The conditions for existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence on initial conditions for the solution of the model are derived. Analytical and numerical bifurcation studies reveal that the system undergoes transcritical and Hopf bifurcations around its equilibrium points. Further, the Hopf bifurcation curves in the parameters' space along with codimension two bifurcations of equilibrium points and bifurcation of limit cycles that arise in the system are investigated. In particular, the occurrence of generalized Hopf, fold Hopf and Neimarck-Sacker bifurcations is unveiled and illustrates the rich dynamics of the model. Finally, bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits and Lyapunov exponents of the model are presented.

  13. Stabilization and complex dynamics in a predator-prey model with predator suffering from an infectious disease.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.; van Voorn, G.A.K.; Pada Das, K.

    2011-01-01

    We study the effects of a non-specified infectious disease of the predator on the dynamics a predator-prey system, by evaluating the dynamics of a three-dimensional model. The predator population in this (PSI) model is split into a susceptible and an unrecoverable infected population, while all

  14. Bifurcation analysis and dimension reduction of a predator-prey model for the L-H transition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Magnus; Brøns, Morten; Juul Rasmussen, Jens

    2013-01-01

    The L-H transition denotes a shift to an improved confinement state of a toroidal plasma in a fusion reactor. A model of the L-H transition is required to simulate the time dependence of tokamak discharges that include the L-H transition. A 3-ODE predator-prey type model of the L-H transition...

  15. The Dynamics of a Nonautonomous Predator-Prey Model with Infertility Control in the Prey

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    Xiaomei Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonautonomous predator-prey model with infertility control in the prey is formulated and investigated. Threshold conditions for the permanence and extinction of fertility prey and infertility prey are established. Some new threshold values of integral form are obtained. For the periodic cases, these threshold conditions act as sharp threshold values for the permanence and extinction of fertility prey and infertility prey. There are also mounting concerns that the quantity of biological sterile drug is obtained in the process of the prevention and control of pest in the grasslands and farmland. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate the main results of this paper. The numerical simulations shown that, when the pest population is permanet, different dynamic behaviors may be found in this model, such as the global attractivity and the chaotic attractor.

  16. Time Delayed Stage-Structured Predator-Prey Model with Birth Pulse and Pest Control Tactics

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    Mei Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Normally, chemical pesticides kill not only pests but also their natural enemies. In order to better control the pests, two-time delayed stage-structured predator-prey models with birth pulse and pest control tactics are proposed and analyzed by using impulsive differential equations in present work. The stability threshold conditions for the mature prey-eradication periodic solutions of two models are derived, respectively. The effects of key parameters including killing efficiency rate, pulse period, the maximum birth effort per unit of time of natural enemy, and maturation time of prey on the threshold values are discussed in more detail. By comparing the two threshold values of mature prey-extinction, we provide the fact that the second control tactic is more effective than the first control method.

  17. Moment stability for a predator-prey model with parametric dichotomous noises

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    Jin, Yan-Fei

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, we investigate the solution moment stability for a Harrison-type predator-prey model with parametric dichotomous noises. Using the Shapiro-Loginov formula, the equations for the first-order and second-order moments are obtained and the corresponding stable conditions are given. It is found that the solution moment stability depends on the noise intensity and correlation time of noise. The first-order and second-order moments become unstable with the decrease of correlation time. That is, the dichotomous noise can improve the solution moment stability with respect to Gaussian white noise. Finally, some numerical results are presented to verify the theoretical analyses. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11272051).

  18. A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey interaction model and parameter identifiability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Meghwani, Suraj S.; Thakur, Manoj; Abbas, Syed

    2018-01-01

    In this work, bifurcation and a systematic approach for estimation of identifiable parameters of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin functional response and prey refuge is discussed. Global asymptotic stability is discussed by applying fluctuation lemma. The system undergoes into Hopf bifurcation with respect to parameters intrinsic growth rate of predators (s) and prey reserve (m). The stability of Hopf bifurcation is also discussed by calculating Lyapunov number. The sensitivity analysis of the considered model system with respect to all variables is performed which also supports our theoretical study. To estimate the unknown parameter from the data, an optimization procedure (pseudo-random search algorithm) is adopted. System responses and phase plots for estimated parameters are also compared with true noise free data. It is found that the system dynamics with true set of parametric values is similar to the estimated parametric values. Numerical simulations are presented to substantiate the analytical findings.

  19. Multi-State Dependent Impulsive Control for Holling I Predator-Prey Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huidong Cheng

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the different effects of biological and chemical control, we propose a model for Holling I functional response predator-prey system concerning pest control which adopts different control methods at different thresholds. By using differential equation geometry theory and the method of successor functions, we prove that the existence of order one periodic solution of such system and the attractiveness of the order one periodic solution by sequence convergence rules and qualitative analysis. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the feasibility of our main results which show that our method used in this paper is more efficient and easier than the existing ones for proving the existence of order one periodic solution.

  20. On the selection of ordinary differential equation models with application to predator-prey dynamical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

    2015-03-01

    We consider model selection and estimation in a context where there are competing ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, and all the models are special cases of a "full" model. We propose a computationally inexpensive approach that employs statistical estimation of the full model, followed by a combination of a least squares approximation (LSA) and the adaptive Lasso. We show the resulting method, here called the LSA method, to be an (asymptotically) oracle model selection method. The finite sample performance of the proposed LSA method is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations, in which we examine the percentage of selecting true ODE models, the efficiency of the parameter estimation compared to simply using the full and true models, and coverage probabilities of the estimated confidence intervals for ODE parameters, all of which have satisfactory performances. Our method is also demonstrated by selecting the best predator-prey ODE to model a lynx and hare population dynamical system among some well-known and biologically interpretable ODE models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Stability and Optimal Harvesting of Modified Leslie-Gower Predator-Prey Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toaha, S.; Azis, M. I.

    2018-03-01

    This paper studies a modified of dynamics of Leslie-Gower predator-prey population model. The model is stated as a system of first order differential equations. The model consists of one predator and one prey. The Holling type II as a predation function is considered in this model. The predator and prey populations are assumed to be beneficial and then the two populations are harvested with constant efforts. Existence and stability of the interior equilibrium point are analysed. Linearization method is used to get the linearized model and the eigenvalue is used to justify the stability of the interior equilibrium point. From the analyses, we show that under a certain condition the interior equilibrium point exists and is locally asymptotically stable. For the model with constant efforts of harvesting, cost function, revenue function, and profit function are considered. The stable interior equilibrium point is then related to the maximum profit problem as well as net present value of revenues problem. We show that there exists a certain value of the efforts that maximizes the profit function and net present value of revenues while the interior equilibrium point remains stable. This means that the populations can live in coexistence for a long time and also maximize the benefit even though the populations are harvested with constant efforts.

  2. On the Gause predator-prey model with a refuge: a fresh look at the history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Křivan, Vlastimil

    2011-04-07

    This article re-analyses a prey-predator model with a refuge introduced by one of the founders of population ecology Gause and his co-workers to explain discrepancies between their observations and predictions of the Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. They replaced the linear functional response used by Lotka and Volterra by a saturating functional response with a discontinuity at a critical prey density. At concentrations below this critical density prey were effectively in a refuge while at a higher densities they were available to predators. Thus, their functional response was of the Holling type III. They analyzed this model and predicted existence of a limit cycle in predator-prey dynamics. In this article I show that their model is ill posed, because trajectories are not well defined. Using the Filippov method, I define and analyze solutions of the Gause model. I show that depending on parameter values, there are three possibilities: (1) trajectories converge to a limit cycle, as predicted by Gause, (2) trajectories converge to an equilibrium, or (3) the prey population escapes predator control and grows to infinity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator-prey model with periodic environmental modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harikrishnan, K. P.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator-prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rate of the predator. We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation. The model also displays the peculiar phenomenon of coexistence of multiple limit cycles in the domain of attraction for a given parameter value that combine and finally gets transformed into a single strange attractor as the control parameter is increased. To identify the chaotic regime in the parameter plane of the model, we apply the recently proposed scheme based on the correlation dimension analysis. We show that the environmental modulation is more favourable for the stable coexistence of the predator and the prey as the regions of fixed point and limit cycle in the parameter plane increase at the expense of chaotic domain.

  4. Existence, Multiplicity, and Stability of Positive Solutions of a Predator-Prey Model with Dinosaur Functional Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaozhou Feng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the property of positive solutions of a predator-prey model with Dinosaur functional response under Dirichlet boundary conditions. Firstly, using the comparison principle and fixed point index theory, the sufficient conditions and necessary conditions on coexistence of positive solutions of a predator-prey model with Dinosaur functional response are established. Secondly, by virtue of bifurcation theory, perturbation theory of eigenvalues, and the fixed point index theory, we establish the bifurcation of positive solutions of the model and obtain the stability and multiplicity of the positive solution under certain conditions. Furthermore, the local uniqueness result is studied when b and d are small enough. Finally, we investigate the multiplicity, uniqueness, and stability of positive solutions when k>0 is sufficiently large.

  5. Turing-Hopf bifurcations in a predator-prey model with herd behavior, quadratic mortality and prey-taxis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xia; Zhang, Tonghua; Meng, Xinzhu; Zhang, Tongqian

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a predator-prey model with herd behavior and prey-taxis. Then, we analyze the stability and bifurcation of the positive equilibrium of the model subject to the homogeneous Neumann boundary condition. By using an abstract bifurcation theory and taking prey-tactic sensitivity coefficient as the bifurcation parameter, we obtain a branch of stable nonconstant solutions bifurcating from the positive equilibrium. Our results show that prey-taxis can yield the occurrence of spatial patterns.

  6. Predators indirectly control vector-borne disease: linking predator-prey and host-pathogen models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Borer, Elizabeth T; Hosseini, Parviez R

    2010-01-06

    Pathogens transmitted by arthropod vectors are common in human populations, agricultural systems and natural communities. Transmission of these vector-borne pathogens depends on the population dynamics of the vector species as well as its interactions with other species within the community. In particular, predation may be sufficient to control pathogen prevalence indirectly via the vector. To examine the indirect effect of predators on vectored-pathogen dynamics, we developed a theoretical model that integrates predator-prey and host-pathogen theory. We used this model to determine whether predation can prevent pathogen persistence or alter the stability of host-pathogen dynamics. We found that, in the absence of predation, pathogen prevalence in the host increases with vector fecundity, whereas predation on the vector causes pathogen prevalence to decline, or even become extinct, with increasing vector fecundity. We also found that predation on a vector may drastically slow the initial spread of a pathogen. The predator can increase host abundance indirectly by reducing or eliminating infection in the host population. These results highlight the importance of studying interactions that, within the greater community, may alter our predictions when studying disease dynamics. From an applied perspective, these results also suggest situations where an introduced predator or the natural enemies of a vector may slow the rate of spread of an emerging vector-borne pathogen.

  7. The “Destabilizing” Effect of Cannibalism in a Spatially Explicit Three-Species Age Structured Predator-Prey Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aladeen Al Basheer

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Cannibalism, the act of killing and consumption of conspecifics, is generally considered to be a stabilising process in ODE models of predator-prey systems. On the other hand, Sun et al. were the first to show that cannibalism can cause Turing instability, in the classical Rosenzweig-McArthur two-species PDE model, which is an impossibility without cannibalism. Magnússon’s classic work is the first to show that cannibalism in a structured three-species predator-prey ODE model can actually be destabilising. In the current manuscript we consider the PDE form of the three-species model proposed in Magnússon’s classic work. We prove that, in the absence of cannibalism, Turing instability is an impossibility in this model, for any range of parameters. However, the inclusion of cannibalism can cause Turing instability. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, we report the first cannibalism induced Turing instability result, in spatially explicit three-species age structured predator-prey systems. We also show that, in the classical ODE model proposed by Magnússon, cannibalism can act as a life boat mechanism, for the prey.

  8. Qualitative Analysis of a Diffusive Ratio-Dependent Holling-Tanner Predator-Prey Model with Smith Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongmin Yue

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the dynamics of a diffusive ratio-dependent Holling-Tanner predator-prey model with Smith growth subject to zero-flux boundary condition. Some qualitative properties, including the dissipation, persistence, and local and global stability of positive constant solution, are discussed. Moreover, we give the refined a priori estimates of positive solutions and derive some results for the existence and nonexistence of nonconstant positive steady state.

  9. Global Asymptotic Stability of a Predator-Prey Model with Modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-Type II Schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengbin Yu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the predator-prey model proposed by Aziz-Alaoui and Okiye (Appl. Math. Lett. 16 (2003 1069–1075 First, the structure of equilibria and their linearized stability is investigated. Then, we provide two sufficient conditions on the global asymptotic stability of a positive equilibrium by employing the Fluctuation Lemma and Lyapunov direct method, respectively. The obtained results not only improve but also supplement existing ones.

  10. Harvesting policy for a delayed stage-structured Holling II predator-prey model with impulsive stocking prey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiao Jianjun; Meng Xinzhu; Chen Lansun

    2009-01-01

    A predator-prey model with a stage structure for the predator, which improves the assumption that each individual predator has the same ability to capture prey, is proposed by Wang et al. [Wang W, Mulone G, Salemi F, Salone V. Permanence and stability of a stage-structured predator-prey model. J Math Anal Appl 2001;262:499-528]. It is assumed that immature individuals and mature individuals of the predator are divided by a fixed age and that immature predators do not have the ability to attack prey. We do economic management behavior for Wang model [Wang et al., 2001] by continuous harvesting on predator and impulsive stocking on prey. Then, a delayed stage-structured Holling type II predator-prey model with impulsive stocking prey and continuous harvesting predator is established. It is also assumed that the predating products of the predator is only to increase its bearing ability. We obtain the sufficient conditions of the global attractivity of predator-extinction boundary periodic solution and the permanence of the system. Our results show that the behavior of impulsive stocking prey plays an important role for the permanence of the system, and provide tactical basis for the biological resource management. Further, the numerical analysis is also inserted to illuminate the dynamics of the system.

  11. Bifurcation approach to the predator-prey population models (Version of the computer book)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazykin, A.D.; Zudin, S.L.

    1993-09-01

    Hierarchically organized family of predator-prey systems is studied. The classification is founded on two interacting principles: the biological and mathematical ones. The different combinations of biological factors included correspond to different bifurcations (up to codimension 3). As theoretical so computing methods are used for analysis, especially concerning non-local bifurcations. (author). 6 refs, figs

  12. Predator-prey interactions shape thermal patch use in a newt larvae-dragonfly nymph model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gvoždík, Lumír; Černická, Eva; Van Damme, R.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 6 (2013), e65079 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP506/10/2170 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : predator-prey interaction * thermoregulatory behavior * patch choice Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  13. Discovering the Power of Individual-Based Modelling in Teaching and Learning: The Study of a Predator-Prey System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginovart, Marta

    2014-08-01

    The general aim is to promote the use of individual-based models (biological agent-based models) in teaching and learning contexts in life sciences and to make their progressive incorporation into academic curricula easier, complementing other existing modelling strategies more frequently used in the classroom. Modelling activities for the study of a predator-prey system for a mathematics classroom in the first year of an undergraduate program in biosystems engineering have been designed and implemented. These activities were designed to put two modelling approaches side by side, an individual-based model and a set of ordinary differential equations. In order to organize and display this, a system with wolves and sheep in a confined domain was considered and studied. With the teaching material elaborated and a computer to perform the numerical resolutions involved and the corresponding individual-based simulations, the students answered questions and completed exercises to achieve the learning goals set. Students' responses regarding the modelling of biological systems and these two distinct methodologies applied to the study of a predator-prey system were collected via questionnaires, open-ended queries and face-to-face dialogues. Taking into account the positive responses of the students when they were doing these activities, it was clear that using a discrete individual-based model to deal with a predator-prey system jointly with a set of ordinary differential equations enriches the understanding of the modelling process, adds new insights and opens novel perspectives of what can be done with computational models versus other models. The complementary views given by the two modelling approaches were very well assessed by students.

  14. Stability and Global Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Model with Two Time Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huitao Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A ratio-dependent predator-prey model with two time delays is studied. By means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global attractiveness of the positive equilibrium. By comparison arguments, the global stability of the semitrivial equilibrium is addressed. By using the theory of functional equation and Hopf bifurcation, the conditions on which positive equilibrium exists and the quality of Hopf bifurcation are given. Using a global Hopf bifurcation result of Wu (1998 for functional differential equations, the global existence of the periodic solutions is obtained. Finally, an example for numerical simulations is also included.

  15. The predator-prey models for the mechanism of autocatalysis, pair wise interactions and movements to free places

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    Muhammad Shakil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we aim to develop the modeled equations for different types of mechanism of the predator-prey interactions with the help of a quasi chemical approach while taking a special study case of foxes and rabbits, these mechanisms include autocatalysis mechanism, pair wise interactions and the mechanism of their movements to some free places. The chemical reactions representing the interactions obey the mass action law. The territorial animal like fox is assigned a simple cell as its territory. Under the proper relations between coefficients, this system may demonstrate globally stable dynamics.

  16. The Effects of Resource Limitation on a Predator-Prey Model with Control Measures as Nonlinear Pulses

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    Wenjie Qin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical behavior of a Holling II predator-prey model with control measures as nonlinear pulses is proposed and analyzed theoretically and numerically to understand how resource limitation affects pest population outbreaks. The threshold conditions for the stability of the pest-free periodic solution are given. Latin hypercube sampling/partial rank correlation coefficients are used to perform sensitivity analysis for the threshold concerning pest extinction to determine the significance of each parameter. Comparing this threshold value with that without resource limitation, our results indicate that it is essential to increase the pesticide’s efficacy against the pest and reduce its effectiveness against the natural enemy, while enhancing the efficiency of the natural enemies. Once the threshold value exceeds a critical level, both pest and its natural enemies populations can oscillate periodically. Further-more, when the pulse period and constant stocking number as a bifurcation parameter, the predator-prey model reveals complex dynamics. In addition, numerical results are presented to illustrate the feasibility of our main results.

  17. Why plankton modellers should reconsider using rectangular hyperbolic (Michaelis-Menten, Monod descriptions of predator-prey interactions

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    Kevin John Flynn

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Rectangular hyperbolic type 2 (RHt2; Michaelis-Menten or Monod -like functions are commonly used to describe predation kinetics in plankton models, either alone or together with a prey selectivity algorithm deploying the same half-saturation constant for all prey types referenced to external prey biomass abundance. We present an analysis that indicates that such descriptions are liable to give outputs that are not plausible according to encounter theory. This is especially so for multi-prey type applications or where changes are made to the maximum feeding rate during a simulation. The RHt2 approach also gives no or limited potential for descriptions of events such as true de-selection of prey, effects of turbulence on encounters, or changes in grazer motility with satiation. We present an alternative, which carries minimal parameterisation effort and computational cost, linking allometric algorithms relating prey abundance and encounter rates to a prey-selection function controlled by satiation. The resultant Satiation-Controlled-Encounter-Based (SCEB function provides a flexible construct describing numeric predator-prey interactions with biomass-feedback control of grazing. The SCEB function includes an attack component similar to that in the Holling disk equation but SCEB differs in having only a single (satiation-based handling constant and an explicit maximum grazing rate. We argue that there is no justification for continuing to deploy RHt2 functions to describe plankton predator-prey interactions.

  18. Existence and Uniqueness of Positive Periodic Solutions for a Delayed Predator-Prey Model with Dispersion and Impulses

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    Zhenguo Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An impulsive Lotka-Volterra type predator-prey model with prey dispersal in two-patch environments and time delays is investigated, where we assume the model of patches with a barrier only as far as the prey population is concerned, whereas the predator population has no barriers between patches. By applying the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory and by means of a suitable Lyapunov functional, a set of easily verifiable sufficient conditions are obtained to guarantee the existence, uniqueness, and global stability of positive periodic solutions of the system. Some known results subject to the underlying systems without impulses are improved and generalized. As an application, we also give two examples to illustrate the feasibility of our main results.

  19. Theoretical study and control optimization of an integrated pest management predator-prey model with power growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kaibiao; Zhang, Tonghua; Tian, Yuan

    2016-09-01

    This work presents a pest control predator-prey model, where rate of change in prey density follows a scaling law with exponent less than one and the control is by an integrated management strategy. The aim is to investigate the change in system dynamics and determine a pest control level with minimum control price. First, the dynamics of the proposed model without control is investigated by taking the exponent as an index parameter. And then, to determine the frequency of spraying chemical pesticide and yield releases of the predator, the existence of the order-1 periodic orbit of the control system is discussed in cases. Furthermore, to ensure a certain robustness of the adopted control, i.e., for an inaccurately detected species density or a deviation, the control system could be stabilized at the order-1 periodic orbit, the stability of the order-1 periodic orbit is verified by an stability criterion for a general semi-continuous dynamical system. In addition, to minimize the total cost input in pest control, an optimization problem is formulated and the optimum pest control level is obtained. At last, the numerical simulations with a specific model are carried out to complement the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. An extension of Freedman's results on a model of predator-prey dynamics as modified by the action of a parasite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Van Nhung

    1993-11-01

    In this paper we consider a model of predator-prey populations with parasitic infection in which each individual of prey or predator can be invaded by a parasite. This is a generalization of the model studied by H.I. Freedman. Our situation is described by system of four autonomous ordinary differential equations. Conditions for persistence of all populations are given. A discussion of the stability of the interior equilibrium is also given. (author). 6 refs

  1. Self-Organized Patterns Induced by Neimark-Sacker, Flip and Turing Bifurcations in a Discrete Predator-Prey Model with Lesie-Gower Functional Response

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    Feifan Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The formation of self-organized patterns in predator-prey models has been a very hot topic recently. The dynamics of these models, bifurcations and pattern formations are so complex that studies are urgently needed. In this research, we transformed a continuous predator-prey model with Lesie-Gower functional response into a discrete model. Fixed points and stability analyses were studied. Around the stable fixed point, bifurcation analyses including: flip, Neimark-Sacker and Turing bifurcation were done and bifurcation conditions were obtained. Based on these bifurcation conditions, parameters values were selected to carry out numerical simulations on pattern formation. The simulation results showed that Neimark-Sacker bifurcation induced spots, spirals and transitional patterns from spots to spirals. Turing bifurcation induced labyrinth patterns and spirals coupled with mosaic patterns, while flip bifurcation induced many irregular complex patterns. Compared with former studies on continuous predator-prey model with Lesie-Gower functional response, our research on the discrete model demonstrated more complex dynamics and varieties of self-organized patterns.

  2. Interdisciplinary education - a predator-prey model for developing a skill set in mathematics, biology and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay

    2017-08-01

    The science of biology has been transforming dramatically and so the need for a stronger mathematical background for biology students has increased. Biological students reaching the senior or post-graduate level often come to realize that their mathematical background is insufficient. Similarly, students in a mathematics programme, interested in biological phenomena, find it difficult to master the complex systems encountered in biology. In short, the biologists do not have enough mathematics and the mathematicians are not being taught enough biology. The need for interdisciplinary curricula that includes disciplines such as biology, physical science, and mathematics is widely recognized, but has not been widely implemented. In this paper, it is suggested that students develop a skill set of ecology, mathematics and technology to encourage working across disciplinary boundaries. To illustrate such a skill set, a predator-prey model that contains self-limiting factors for both predator and prey is suggested. The general idea of dynamics, is introduced and students are encouraged to discover the applicability of this approach to more complex biological systems. The level of mathematics and technology required is not advanced; therefore, it is ideal for inclusion in a senior-level or introductory graduate-level course for students interested in mathematical biology.

  3. Indirect Allee effect, bistability and chaotic oscillations in a predator-prey discrete model of logistic type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez-Ruiz, Ricardo; Fournier-Prunaret, Daniele

    2005-01-01

    A cubic discrete coupled logistic equation is proposed to model the predator-prey problem. The coupling depends on the population size of both species and on a positive constant λ, which could depend on the prey reproduction rate and on the predator hunting strategy. Different dynamical regimes are obtained when λ is modified. For small λ, the species become extinct. For a bigger λ, the preys survive but the predators extinguish. Only when the prey population reaches a critical value then predators can coexist with preys. For increasing λ, a bistable regime appears where the populations apart of being stabilized in fixed quantities can present periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic oscillations. Finally, bistability is lost and the system settles down in a steady state, or, for the biggest permitted λ, in an invariant curve. We also present the basins for the different regimes. The use of the critical curves lets us determine the influence of the zones with different number of first rank preimages in the bifurcation mechanisms of those basins

  4. Sparse identification of a predator-prey system from simulation data of a convection model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Magnus; Brøns, Morten; Rasmussen, Jens Juul

    2017-01-01

    of a convection problem. A convection model with a pressure source centered at the inner boundary models the edge dynamics of a magnetically confined plasma. The convection problem undergoes a sequence of bifurcations as the strength of the pressure source increases. The time evolution of the energies......The use of low-dimensional dynamical systems as reduced models for plasma dynamics is useful as solving an initial value problem requires much less computational resources than fluid simulations. We utilize a data-driven modeling approach to identify a reduced model from simulation data...

  5. Optimal harvesting for a predator-prey agent-based model using difference equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oremland, Matthew; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, a method known as Pareto optimization is applied in the solution of a multi-objective optimization problem. The system in question is an agent-based model (ABM) wherein global dynamics emerge from local interactions. A system of discrete mathematical equations is formulated in order to capture the dynamics of the ABM; while the original model is built up analytically from the rules of the model, the paper shows how minor changes to the ABM rule set can have a substantial effect on model dynamics. To address this issue, we introduce parameters into the equation model that track such changes. The equation model is amenable to mathematical theory—we show how stability analysis can be performed and validated using ABM data. We then reduce the equation model to a simpler version and implement changes to allow controls from the ABM to be tested using the equations. Cohen's weighted κ is proposed as a measure of similarity between the equation model and the ABM, particularly with respect to the optimization problem. The reduced equation model is used to solve a multi-objective optimization problem via a technique known as Pareto optimization, a heuristic evolutionary algorithm. Results show that the equation model is a good fit for ABM data; Pareto optimization provides a suite of solutions to the multi-objective optimization problem that can be implemented directly in the ABM.

  6. Bifurcation and Stability in a Delayed Predator-Prey Model with Mixed Functional Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yafia, R.; Aziz-Alaoui, M. A.; Merdan, H.; Tewa, J. J.

    2015-06-01

    The model analyzed in this paper is based on the model set forth by Aziz Alaoui et al. [Aziz Alaoui & Daher Okiye, 2003; Nindjin et al., 2006] with time delay, which describes the competition between the predator and prey. This model incorporates a modified version of the Leslie-Gower functional response as well as that of Beddington-DeAngelis. In this paper, we consider the model with one delay consisting of a unique nontrivial equilibrium E* and three others which are trivial. Their dynamics are studied in terms of local and global stabilities and of the description of Hopf bifurcation at E*. At the third trivial equilibrium, the existence of the Hopf bifurcation is proven as the delay (taken as a parameter of bifurcation) that crosses some critical values.

  7. Dynamics of a Diffusive Predator-Prey Model with Allee Effect on Predator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqin Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The reaction-diffusion Holling-Tanner prey-predator model considering the Allee effect on predator, under zero-flux boundary conditions, is discussed. Some properties of the solutions, such as dissipation and persistence, are obtained. Local and global stability of the positive equilibrium and Turing instability are studied. With the help of the numerical simulations, the rich Turing patterns, including holes, stripes, and spots patterns, are obtained.

  8. Retracted: An impulsive predator-prey model with disease in the prey for integrated pest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ruiqing

    2017-06-01

    This article has been withdrawn at the request of the author(s) and/or editor. The Publisher apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause. The full Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal can be found at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/withdrawalpolicy. The article is not original and for the most part already appeared in Applied Mathematical Modelling (volume 33, pages 2248-2256). One of the conditions of submission of a paper for publication is that authors declare explicitly that their work is original and has not appeared in a publication elsewhere. Re-use of any data should be appropriately cited. As such this article represents an abuse of the scientific publishing system. The scientific community takes a very strong view on this matter and apologies are offered to readers of the journal that this was not detected during the submission process. DOI of original article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2008.06.001

  9. Cellular automaton for migration in ecosystem: Application of traffic model to a predator-prey system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

    2018-01-01

    In most cases, physicists have studied the migration of biospecies by the use of random walk. In the present article, we apply cellular automaton of traffic model. For simplicity, we deal with an ecosystem contains a prey and predator, and use one-dimensional lattice with two layers. Preys stay on the first layer, but predators uni-directionally move on the second layer. The spatial and temporal evolution is numerically explored. It is shown that the migration has the important effect on populations of both prey and predator. Without migration, the phase transition between a prey-phase and coexisting-phase occurs. In contrast, the phase transition disappears by migration. This is because predator can survive due to migration. We find another phase transition for spatial distribution: in one phase, prey and predator form a stripe pattern of condensation and rarefaction, while in the other phase, they uniformly distribute. The self-organized stripe may be similar to the migration patterns in real ecosystems.

  10. Outrun or Outmaneuver: Predator-Prey Interactions as a Model System for Integrating Biomechanical Studies in a Broader Ecological and Evolutionary Context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Talia Y; Biewener, Andrew A

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral studies performed in natural habitats provide a context for the development of hypotheses and the design of experiments relevant both to biomechanics and to evolution. In particular, predator-prey interactions are a model system for integrative study because success or failure of predation has a direct effect on fitness and drives the evolution of specialized performance in both predator and prey. Although all predators share the goal of capturing prey, and all prey share the goal of survival, the behavior of predators and prey are diverse in nature. This article presents studies of some predator-prey interactions sharing common predation strategies that reveal general principles governing the behaviors of predator and prey, even in distantly related taxa. Studies of predator-prey interactions also reveal that maximal performance observed in a laboratory setting is not necessarily the performance that determines fitness. Thus, considering locomotion in the context of predation ecology can aid in evolutionarily relevant experimental design. Classification by strategy reveals that displaying unpredictable trajectories is a relevant anti-predator behavior in response to multiple predation strategies. A predator's perception and pursuit of prey can be affected indirectly by divergent locomotion of similar animals that share an ecosystem. Variation in speed and direction of locomotion that directly increases the unpredictability of a prey's trajectory can be increased through genetic mutation that affects locomotor patterns, musculoskeletal changes that affect maneuverability, and physical interactions between an animal and the environment. By considering the interconnectedness of ecology, physical constraints, and the evolutionary history of behavior, studies in biomechanics can be designed to inform each of these fields. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights

  11. A predator-prey model with a holling type I functional response including a predator mutual interference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, G.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    The most widely used functional response in describing predator-prey relationships is the Holling type II functional response, where per capita predation is a smooth, increasing, and saturating function of prey density. Beddington and DeAngelis modified the Holling type II response to include interference of predators that increases with predator density. Here we introduce a predator-interference term into a Holling type I functional response. We explain the ecological rationale for the response and note that the phase plane configuration of the predator and prey isoclines differs greatly from that of the Beddington-DeAngelis response; for example, in having three possible interior equilibria rather than one. In fact, this new functional response seems to be quite unique. We used analytical and numerical methods to show that the resulting system shows a much richer dynamical behavior than the Beddington-DeAngelis response, or other typically used functional responses. For example, cyclic-fold, saddle-fold, homoclinic saddle connection, and multiple crossing bifurcations can all occur. We then use a smooth approximation to the Holling type I functional response with predator mutual interference to show that these dynamical properties do not result from the lack of smoothness, but rather from subtle differences in the functional responses. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  12. The global stability of a delayed predator-prey system with two stage-structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Fengyan; Pang Guoping

    2009-01-01

    Based on the classical delayed stage-structured model and Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model, we introduce and study a delayed predator-prey system, where prey and predator have two stages, an immature stage and a mature stage. The time delays are the time lengths between the immature's birth and maturity of prey and predator species. Results on global asymptotic stability of nonnegative equilibria of the delay system are given, which generalize and suggest that good continuity exists between the predator-prey system and its corresponding stage-structured system.

  13. Discovering the Power of Individual-Based Modelling in Teaching and Learning: The Study of a Predator-Prey System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginovart, Marta

    2014-01-01

    The general aim is to promote the use of individual-based models (biological agent-based models) in teaching and learning contexts in life sciences and to make their progressive incorporation into academic curricula easier, complementing other existing modelling strategies more frequently used in the classroom. Modelling activities for the study…

  14. Stabilization and complex dynamics in a predator-prey model with predator suffering from an infectious disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.; Voorn, van G.A.K.; Das, pada Krishna

    2011-01-01

    We study the effects of a non-specified infectious disease of the predator on the dynamics a predator–prey system, by evaluating the dynamics of a three-dimensional model. The predator population in this (PSI) model is split into a susceptible and an unrecoverable infected population, while all

  15. Predator-prey encounters in turbulent waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mann, J.; Ott, Søren; Pécseli, H.L.

    2002-01-01

    With reference to studies of predator-prey encounters in turbulent waters, we demonstrate the feasibility of an experimental method for investigations of particle fluxes to an absorbing surface in turbulent flows. A laboratory experiment is carried out, where an approximately homogeneous and isot......With reference to studies of predator-prey encounters in turbulent waters, we demonstrate the feasibility of an experimental method for investigations of particle fluxes to an absorbing surface in turbulent flows. A laboratory experiment is carried out, where an approximately homogeneous...

  16. Direct identification of predator-prey dynamics in gyrokinetic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Sumire, E-mail: sumire.kobayashi@lpp.polytechnique.fr; Gürcan, Özgür D [Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas, CNRS, Paris-Sud, Ecole Polytechnique, UMR7648, F-91128 Palaiseau (France); Diamond, Patrick H. [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0319 (United States)

    2015-09-15

    The interaction between spontaneously formed zonal flows and small-scale turbulence in nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations is explored in a shearless closed field line geometry. It is found that when clear limit cycle oscillations prevail, the observed turbulent dynamics can be quantitatively captured by a simple Lotka-Volterra type predator-prey model. Fitting the time traces of full gyrokinetic simulations by such a reduced model allows extraction of the model coefficients. Scanning physical plasma parameters, such as collisionality and density gradient, it was observed that the effective growth rates of turbulence (i.e., the prey) remain roughly constant, in spite of the higher and varying level of primary mode linear growth rates. The effective growth rate that was extracted corresponds roughly to the zonal-flow-modified primary mode growth rate. It was also observed that the effective damping of zonal flows (i.e., the predator) in the parameter range, where clear predator-prey dynamics is observed, (i.e., near marginal stability) agrees with the collisional damping expected in these simulations. This implies that the Kelvin-Helmholtz-like instability may be negligible in this range. The results imply that when the tertiary instability plays a role, the dynamics becomes more complex than a simple Lotka-Volterra predator prey.

  17. Permanence of a predator-prey discrete system with Holling-IV functional response and distributed delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X; Wu, Z; Zhou, T

    2016-01-01

    A predator-prey discrete-time model with Holling-IV functional response and distributed delays is investigated in this paper. By using the comparison theorem of the difference equation and some analysis technique, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the permanence of the discrete predator-prey system. Two examples are given to illustrate the feasibility of the obtained result.

  18. Functional responses and scaling in predator-prey interactions of marine fishes: contemporary issues and emerging concepts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunsicker, Mary E; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Bailey, Kevin M; Buckel, Jeffrey A; Wilson White, J; Link, Jason S; Essington, Timothy E; Gaichas, Sarah; Anderson, Todd W; Brodeur, Richard D; Chan, Kung-Sik; Chen, Kun; Englund, Göran; Frank, Kenneth T; Freitas, Vânia; Hixon, Mark A; Hurst, Thomas; Johnson, Darren W; Kitchell, James F; Reese, Doug; Rose, George A; Sjodin, Henrik; Sydeman, William J; van der Veer, Henk W; Vollset, Knut; Zador, Stephani

    2011-12-01

    Predator-prey interactions are a primary structuring force vital to the resilience of marine communities and sustainability of the world's oceans. Human influences on marine ecosystems mediate changes in species interactions. This generality is evinced by the cascading effects of overharvesting top predators on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. It follows that ecological forecasting, ecosystem management, and marine spatial planning require a better understanding of food web relationships. Characterising and scaling predator-prey interactions for use in tactical and strategic tools (i.e. multi-species management and ecosystem models) are paramount in this effort. Here, we explore what issues are involved and must be considered to advance the use of predator-prey theory in the context of marine fisheries science. We address pertinent contemporary ecological issues including (1) the approaches and complexities of evaluating predator responses in marine systems; (2) the 'scaling up' of predator-prey interactions to the population, community, and ecosystem level; (3) the role of predator-prey theory in contemporary fisheries and ecosystem modelling approaches; and (4) directions for the future. Our intent is to point out needed research directions that will improve our understanding of predator-prey interactions in the context of the sustainable marine fisheries and ecosystem management. 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Qualitative analysis on a cubic predator-prey system with diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunyi Bie

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a cubic predator-prey model with diffusion. We first establish the global stability of the trivial and nontrivial constant steady states for the reaction diffusion system, and then prove the existence and non-existence results concerning non-constant positive stationary solutions by using topological argument and the energy method, respectively.

  20. Intra-seasonal Strategies Based on Energy Budgets in a Dynamic Predator-Prey Game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staňková, K.; Abate, A.; Sabelis, M.W.; Křivan, V.; Zaccour, G.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a game-theoretical model to describe intra-seasonal predator-prey interactions between predatory mites (Acari: Phytoseiidae) and prey mites (also called fruit-tree red spider mites) (Acari: Tetranychidae) that feed on leaves of apple trees. Its parameters have been instantiated based on

  1. Clay Caterpillar Whodunit: A Customizable Method for Studying Predator-Prey Interactions in the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Rachel; Klemens, Jeffrey A.; Agosta, Salvatore J.; Bartlow, Andrew W.; Wood, Steve; Carlson, Jason A.; Stratford, Jeffrey A.; Steele, Michael A.

    2013-01-01

    Predator-prey dynamics are an important concept in ecology, often serving as an introduction to the field of community ecology. However, these dynamics are difficult for students to observe directly. We describe a methodology that employs model caterpillars made of clay to estimate rates of predator attack on a prey species. This approach can be…

  2. Hopf bifurcation in a partial dependent predator-prey system with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Huitao; Lin Yiping

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a partial dependent predator-prey model with time delay is studied by using the theory of functional differential equation and Hassard's method, the condition on which positive equilibrium exists and Hopf bifurcation occurs are given. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to support the analytical results, and the chaotic behaviors are observed.

  3. The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator-Prey Population-Level Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortez, Michael H; Patel, Swati

    2017-07-01

    This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator-prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator-prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator-prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator-prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.

  4. Stable oscillations of a predator-prey probabilistic cellular automaton: a mean-field approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tome, Tania; Carvalho, Kelly C de

    2007-01-01

    We analyze a probabilistic cellular automaton describing the dynamics of coexistence of a predator-prey system. The individuals of each species are localized over the sites of a lattice and the local stochastic updating rules are inspired by the processes of the Lotka-Volterra model. Two levels of mean-field approximations are set up. The simple approximation is equivalent to an extended patch model, a simple metapopulation model with patches colonized by prey, patches colonized by predators and empty patches. This approximation is capable of describing the limited available space for species occupancy. The pair approximation is moreover able to describe two types of coexistence of prey and predators: one where population densities are constant in time and another displaying self-sustained time oscillations of the population densities. The oscillations are associated with limit cycles and arise through a Hopf bifurcation. They are stable against changes in the initial conditions and, in this sense, they differ from the Lotka-Volterra cycles which depend on initial conditions. In this respect, the present model is biologically more realistic than the Lotka-Volterra model

  5. Solving Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey System with Constant Effort Harvesting Using Homotopy Perturbation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdoul R. Ghotbi

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to wide range of interest in use of bioeconomic models to gain insight into the scientific management of renewable resources like fisheries and forestry, homotopy perturbation method is employed to approximate the solution of the ratio-dependent predator-prey system with constant effort prey harvesting. The results are compared with the results obtained by Adomian decomposition method. The results show that, in new model, there are less computations needed in comparison to Adomian decomposition method.

  6. Predator-prey interactions of nematode-trapping fungi and nematodes: both sides of the coin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal-Diez de Ulzurrun, Guillermo; Hsueh, Yen-Ping

    2018-05-01

    Nematode-trapping fungi develop complex trapping devices to capture and consume nematodes. The dynamics of these organisms is especially important given the pathogenicity of nematodes and, consequently, the potential application of nematode-trapping fungi as biocontrol agents. Furthermore, both the nematodes and nematode-trapping fungi can be easily grown in laboratories, making them a unique manipulatable predator-prey system to study their coevolution. Several different aspects of these fungi have been studied, such as their genetics and the different factors triggering trap formation. In this review, we use the nematode-trapping fungus Arthrobotrys oligospora (which forms adhesive nets) as a model to describe the trapping process. We divide this process into several stages; namely attraction, recognition, trap formation, adhesion, penetration, and digestion. We summarize the latest findings in the field and current knowledge on the interactions between nematodes and nematode-trapping fungi, representing both sides of the predator-prey interaction.

  7. Predator-prey-subsidy population dynamics on stepping-stone domains with dispersal delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eide, Ragna M; Krause, Andrew L; Fadai, Nabil T; Van Gorder, Robert A

    2018-08-14

    We examine the role of the travel time of a predator along a spatial network on predator-prey population interactions, where the predator is able to partially or fully sustain itself on a resource subsidy. The impact of access to food resources on the stability and behaviour of the predator-prey-subsidy system is investigated, with a primary focus on how incorporating travel time changes the dynamics. The population interactions are modelled by a system of delay differential equations, where travel time is incorporated as discrete delay in the network diffusion term in order to model time taken to migrate between spatial regions. The model is motivated by the Arctic ecosystem, where the Arctic fox consumes both hunted lemming and scavenged seal carcass. The fox travels out on sea ice, in addition to quadrennially migrating over substantial distances. We model the spatial predator-prey-subsidy dynamics through a "stepping-stone" approach. We find that a temporal delay alone does not push species into extinction, but rather may stabilize or destabilize coexistence equilibria. We are able to show that delay can stabilize quasi-periodic or chaotic dynamics, and conclude that the incorporation of dispersal delay has a regularizing effect on dynamics, suggesting that dispersal delay can be proposed as a solution to the paradox of enrichment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. On the spatial dynamics and oscillatory behavior of a predator-prey model based on cellular automata and local particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Mario Martínez; Moreno-Armendáriz, Marco A; Carlos Seck Tuoh Mora, Juan

    2013-11-07

    A two-dimensional lattice model based on Cellular Automata theory and swarm intelligence is used to study the spatial and population dynamics of a theoretical ecosystem. It is found that the social interactions among predators provoke the formation of clusters, and that by increasing the mobility of predators the model enters into an oscillatory behavior. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Competition and Dispersal in Predator-Prey Waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Savill, N.J.; Hogeweg, P.

    1998-01-01

    Dispersing predators and prey can exhibit complex spatio-temporal wave-like patterns if the interactions between them cause oscillatory dynamics. We study the effect of these predator- prey density waves on the competition between prey populations and between predator popu- lations with different

  10. Effects of demographic stochasticity on biological community assembly on evolutionary time scales

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke

    2010-04-13

    We study the effects of demographic stochasticity on the long-term dynamics of biological coevolution models of community assembly. The noise is induced in order to check the validity of deterministic population dynamics. While mutualistic communities show little dependence on the stochastic population fluctuations, predator-prey models show strong dependence on the stochasticity, indicating the relevance of the finiteness of the populations. For a predator-prey model, the noise causes drastic decreases in diversity and total population size. The communities that emerge under influence of the noise consist of species strongly coupled with each other and have stronger linear stability around the fixed-point populations than the corresponding noiseless model. The dynamics on evolutionary time scales for the predator-prey model are also altered by the noise. Approximate 1/f fluctuations are observed with noise, while 1/ f2 fluctuations are found for the model without demographic noise. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  11. Effects of demographic stochasticity on biological community assembly on evolutionary time scales

    KAUST Repository

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu; Rikvold, Per Arne

    2010-01-01

    We study the effects of demographic stochasticity on the long-term dynamics of biological coevolution models of community assembly. The noise is induced in order to check the validity of deterministic population dynamics. While mutualistic communities show little dependence on the stochastic population fluctuations, predator-prey models show strong dependence on the stochasticity, indicating the relevance of the finiteness of the populations. For a predator-prey model, the noise causes drastic decreases in diversity and total population size. The communities that emerge under influence of the noise consist of species strongly coupled with each other and have stronger linear stability around the fixed-point populations than the corresponding noiseless model. The dynamics on evolutionary time scales for the predator-prey model are also altered by the noise. Approximate 1/f fluctuations are observed with noise, while 1/ f2 fluctuations are found for the model without demographic noise. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  12. Vertebrate predator-prey interactions in a seasonal environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels Martin; Berg, Thomas B; Forchhammer, Mads

    2008-01-01

    erminea predation and stabilising predation from the generalist predators, in Zackenbergdalen mainly the arctic fox Alopex lagopus. In Zackenbergdalen, however, the coupling between the specialist stoat and the lemming population is relatively weak. During summer, the predation pressure is high......The High Arctic, with its low number of species, is characterised by a relatively simple ecosystem, and the vertebrate predator-prey interactions in the valley Zackenbergdalen in Northeast Greenland are centred around the collared lemming Dicrostonyx groenlandicus and its multiple predators...

  13. Chaos in periodically forced Holling type II predator-prey system with impulsive perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shuwen; Tan Dejun; Chen Lansun

    2006-01-01

    The effect of periodic forcing and impulsive perturbations on predator-prey model with Holling type II functional response is investigated. The periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of prey. The impulsive perturbation is affected by introducing periodic constant impulsive immigration of predator. The dynamical behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that periodic forcing and impulsive perturbation can very easily give rise to complex dynamics, including (1) quasi-periodic oscillating, (2) period doubling cascade, (3) chaos, (4) period halfing cascade, (5) non-unique dynamics

  14. Chaos in periodically forced Holling type IV predator-prey system with impulsive perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shuwen; Tan Dejun; Chen Lansun

    2006-01-01

    The effect of periodic forcing and impulsive perturbations on predator-prey model with Holling type IV functional response is investigated. The periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of the prey. The impulsive perturbations are affected by introducing periodic constant impulsive immigration of predator. The dynamical behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that periodic forcing and impulsive perturbation can easily give rise to complex dynamics, including (1) quasi-periodic oscillating, (2) period doubling cascade, (3) chaos, (4) period halfing cascade

  15. Oscillations and chaos behind predator-prey invasion: mathematical artifact or ecological reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherratt, J. A.; Eagan, B. T.; Lewis, M. A.

    1997-01-01

    A constant dilemma in theoretical ecology is knowing whether model predictions corrspond to real phenomena or whether they are artifacts of the modelling framework. The frequent absence of detailed ecological data against which models can be tested gives this issue particular importance. We address this question in the specific case of invasion in a predator-prey system with oscillatory population kinetics, in which both species exhibit local random movement. Given only these two basic qualitative features, we consider whether we can deduce any properties of the behaviour following invasion. To do this we study four different types of mathematical model, which have no formal relationship, but which all reflect our two qualitative ingredients. The models are: reaction-diffusion equations, coupled map lattices, deterministic cellular automata, and integrodifference equations. We present results of numerical simulations of the invasion of prey by predators for each model, and show that although there are certain differences, the main qualitative features of the behaviour behind invasion are the same for all the models. Specifically, there are either irregular spatiotemporal oscillations behind the invasion, or regular spatiotemporal oscillations with the form of a periodic travelling 'wake', depending on parameter values. The observation of this behaviour in all types of model strongly suggests that it is a direct consequence of our basic qualitative assumptions, and as such is an ecological reality which will always occur behind invasion in actual oscillatory predator-prey systems.

  16. Behavioral refuges and predator-prey coexistence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křivan, Vlastimil

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 339, DEC 21 (2013), s. 112-121 ISSN 0022-5193 Grant - others:National Science Foundation(US) DMS 0931642; US Department of Agriculture(US) EF-0832858 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : functional response * hysteresis * Lotka-Volterra model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.303, year: 2013 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519312006522#

  17. Extinction and permanence in delayed stage-structure predator-prey system with impulsive effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pang Guoping; Wang Fengyan; Chen Lansun

    2009-01-01

    Based on the classical stage-structured model and Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model, an impulsive delayed differential equation to model the process of periodically releasing natural enemies at fixed times for pest control is proposed and investigated. We show that the conditions for global attractivity of the 'pest-extinction' ('prey-eradication') periodic solution and permanence of the population of the model depend on time delay. We also show that constant maturation time delay and impulsive releasing for the predator can bring great effects on the dynamics of system by numerical analysis. As a result, the pest maturation time delay is considered to establish a procedure to maintain the pests at an acceptably low level in the long term. In this paper, the main feature is that we introduce time delay and pulse into the predator-prey (natural enemy-pest) model with age structure, exhibit a new modelling method which is applied to investigate impulsive delay differential equations, and give some reasonable suggestions for pest management.

  18. Disentangling mite predator-prey relationships by multiplex PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Sayas, Consuelo; Pina, Tatiana; Gómez-Martínez, María A; Camañes, Gemma; Ibáñez-Gual, María V; Jaques, Josep A; Hurtado, Mónica A

    2015-11-01

    Gut content analysis using molecular techniques can help elucidate predator-prey relationships in situations in which other methodologies are not feasible, such as in the case of trophic interactions between minute species such as mites. We designed species-specific primers for a mite community occurring in Spanish citrus orchards comprising two herbivores, the Tetranychidae Tetranychus urticae and Panonychus citri, and six predatory mites belonging to the Phytoseiidae family; these predatory mites are considered to be these herbivores' main biological control agents. These primers were successfully multiplexed in a single PCR to test the range of predators feeding on each of the two prey species. We estimated prey DNA detectability success over time (DS50), which depended on the predator-prey combination and ranged from 0.2 to 18 h. These values were further used to weight prey detection in field samples to disentangle the predatory role played by the most abundant predators (i.e. Euseius stipulatus and Phytoseiulus persimilis). The corrected predation value for E. stipulatus was significantly higher than for P. persimilis. However, because this 1.5-fold difference was less than that observed regarding their sevenfold difference in abundance, we conclude that P. persimilis is the most effective predator in the system; it preyed on tetranychids almost five times more frequently than E. stipulatus did. The present results demonstrate that molecular tools are appropriate to unravel predator-prey interactions in tiny species such as mites, which include important agricultural pests and their predators. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. A spatial theory for emergent multiple predator-prey interactions in food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northfield, Tobin D; Barton, Brandon T; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2017-09-01

    Predator-prey interaction is inherently spatial because animals move through landscapes to search for and consume food resources and to avoid being consumed by other species. The spatial nature of species interactions necessitates integrating spatial processes into food web theory and evaluating how predators combine to impact their prey. Here, we present a spatial modeling approach that examines emergent multiple predator effects on prey within landscapes. The modeling is inspired by the habitat domain concept derived from empirical synthesis of spatial movement and interactions studies. Because these principles are motivated by synthesis of short-term experiments, it remains uncertain whether spatial contingency principles hold in dynamical systems. We address this uncertainty by formulating dynamical systems models, guided by core habitat domain principles, to examine long-term multiple predator-prey spatial dynamics. To describe habitat domains, we use classical niche concepts describing resource utilization distributions, and assume species interactions emerge from the degree of overlap between species. The analytical results generally align with those from empirical synthesis and present a theoretical framework capable of demonstrating multiple predator effects that does not depend on the small spatial or temporal scales typical of mesocosm experiments, and help bridge between empirical experiments and long-term dynamics in natural systems.

  20. A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W

    2017-07-01

    In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the "edge of chaos" while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection-a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies.

  1. Extinction and Permanence of a General Predator-Prey System with Impulsive Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianning Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A general predator-prey system is studied in a scheme where there is periodic impulsive perturbations. This scheme has the potential to protect the predator from extinction but under some conditions may also serve to lead to extinction of the prey. Conditions for extinction and permanence are obtained via the comparison methods involving monotone theory of impulsive systems and multiple Liapunov functions, which establish explicit bounds on solutions. The existence of a positive periodic solution is also studied by the bifurcation theory. Application is given to a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system with periodic impulsive immigration of the predator. It is shown that the results are quite different from the corresponding system without impulsive immigration, where extinction of the prey can never be achieved. The prey will be extinct or permanent independent of whether the system without impulsive effect immigration is permanent or not. The model and its results suggest an approach of pest control which proves more effective than the classical one.

  2. The Dynamics of an Impulsive Predator-Prey System with Stage Structure and Holling Type III Functional Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhixiang Ju

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the biological resource management of natural resources, a stage-structured predator-prey model with Holling type III functional response, birth pulse, and impulsive harvesting at different moments is proposed in this paper. By applying comparison theorem and some analysis techniques, the global attractivity of predator-extinction periodic solution and the permanence of this system are studied. At last, examples and numerical simulations are given to verify the validity of the main results.

  3. Global Hopf Bifurcation for a Predator-Prey System with Three Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhichao; Wang, Lin

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, a delayed predator-prey model is considered. The existence and stability of the positive equilibrium are investigated by choosing the delay τ = τ1 + τ2 as a bifurcation parameter. We see that Hopf bifurcation can occur as τ crosses some critical values. The direction of the Hopf bifurcations and the stability of the bifurcation periodic solutions are also determined by using the center manifold and normal form theory. Furthermore, based on the global Hopf bifurcation theorem for general function differential equations, which was established by J. Wu using fixed point theorem and degree theory methods, the existence of global Hopf bifurcation is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations to support the analytical conclusions are carried out.

  4. The diffusive Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system with delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Noufaey, K S; Marchant, T R; Edwards, M P

    2015-12-01

    Semi-analytical solutions for the diffusive Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system with delay are considered in one and two-dimensional domains. The Galerkin method is applied, which approximates the spatial structure of both the predator and prey populations. This approach is used to obtain a lower-order, ordinary differential delay equation model for the system of governing delay partial differential equations. Steady-state and transient solutions and the region of parameter space, in which Hopf bifurcations occur, are all found. In some cases simple linear expressions are found as approximations, to describe steady-state solutions and the Hopf parameter regions. An asymptotic analysis for the periodic solution near the Hopf bifurcation point is performed for the one-dimensional domain. An excellent agreement is shown in comparisons between semi-analytical and numerical solutions of the governing equations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The threshold of coexistence and critical behaviour of a predator-prey cellular automaton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arashiro, Everaldo; Tome, Tania

    2007-01-01

    We study a probabilistic cellular automaton to describe two population biology problems: the threshold of species coexistence in a predator-prey system and the spreading of an epidemic in a population. By carrying out mean-field approximations and numerical simulations we obtain the phase boundaries (thresholds) related to the transition between an active state, where prey and predators present a stable coexistence, and a prey absorbing state. The numerical estimates for the critical exponents show that the transition belongs to the directed percolation universality class. In the limit where the cellular automaton maps into a model for the spreading of an epidemic with immunization we observe a crossover from directed percolation class to the dynamic percolation class. Patterns of growing clusters related to species coexistence and spreading of epidemic are shown and discussed

  6. Predator-prey dynamics driven by feedback between functionally diverse trophic levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Tirok

    Full Text Available Neglecting the naturally existing functional diversity of communities and the resulting potential to respond to altered conditions may strongly reduce the realism and predictive power of ecological models. We therefore propose and study a predator-prey model that describes mutual feedback via species shifts in both predator and prey, using a dynamic trait approach. Species compositions of the two trophic levels were described by mean functional traits--prey edibility and predator food-selectivity--and functional diversities by the variances. Altered edibility triggered shifts in food-selectivity so that consumers continuously respond to the present prey composition, and vice versa. This trait-mediated feedback mechanism resulted in a complex dynamic behavior with ongoing oscillations in the mean trait values, reflecting continuous reorganization of the trophic levels. The feedback was only possible if sufficient functional diversity was present in both trophic levels. Functional diversity was internally maintained on the prey level as no niche existed in our system, which was ideal under any composition of the predator level due to the trade-offs between edibility, growth and carrying capacity. The predators were only subject to one trade-off between food-selectivity and grazing ability and in the absence of immigration, one predator type became abundant, i.e., functional diversity declined to zero. In the lack of functional diversity the system showed the same dynamics as conventional models of predator-prey interactions ignoring the potential for shifts in species composition. This way, our study identified the crucial role of trade-offs and their shape in physiological and ecological traits for preserving diversity.

  7. Behavioral response races, predator-prey shell games, ecology of fear, and patch use of pumas and their ungulate prey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laundré, John W

    2010-10-01

    The predator-prey shell game predicts random movement of prey across the landscape, whereas the behavioral response race and landscape of fear models predict that there should be a negative relationship between the spatial distribution of a predator and its behaviorally active prey. Additionally, prey have imperfect information on the whereabouts of their predator, which the predator should incorporate in its patch use strategy. I used a one-predator-one-prey system, puma (Puma concolor)-mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) to test the following predictions regarding predator-prey distribution and patch use by the predator. (1) Pumas will spend more time in high prey risk/low prey use habitat types, while deer will spend their time in low-risk habitats. Pumas should (2) select large forage patches more often, (3) remain in large patches longer, and (4) revisit individual large patches more often than individual smaller ones. I tested these predictions with an extensive telemetry data set collected over 16 years in a study area of patchy forested habitat. When active, pumas spent significantly less time in open areas of low intrinsic predation risk than did deer. Pumas used large patches more than expected, revisited individual large patches significantly more often than smaller ones, and stayed significantly longer in larger patches than in smaller ones. The results supported the prediction of a negative relationship in the spatial distribution of a predator and its prey and indicated that the predator is incorporating the prey's imperfect information about its presence. These results indicate a behavioral complexity on the landscape scale that can have far-reaching impacts on predator-prey interactions.

  8. On the dynamics of a generalized predator-prey system with Z-type control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacitignola, Deborah; Diele, Fasma; Marangi, Carmela; Provenzale, Antonello

    2016-10-01

    We apply the Z-control approach to a generalized predator-prey system and consider the specific case of indirect control of the prey population. We derive the associated Z-controlled model and investigate its properties from the point of view of the dynamical systems theory. The key role of the design parameter λ for the successful application of the method is stressed and related to specific dynamical properties of the Z-controlled model. Critical values of the design parameter are also found, delimiting the λ-range for the effectiveness of the Z-method. Analytical results are then numerically validated by the means of two ecological models: the classical Lotka-Volterra model and a model related to a case study of the wolf-wild boar dynamics in the Alta Murgia National Park. Investigations on these models also highlight how the Z-control method acts in respect to different dynamical regimes of the uncontrolled model. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Turing patterns induced by cross-diffusion in a predator-prey system in presence of habitat complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghorai, Santu; Poria, Swarup

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we have investigated the phenomena of Turing pattern formation in a predator-prey model with habitat complexity in presence of cross diffusion. Using the linear stability analysis, the conditions for the existence of stationary pattern and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained. It is shown analytically that the presence of cross diffusion in the system supports the formation of Turing pattern. Two parameter bifurcation analysis are done analytically and corresponding bifurcation diagrams are presented numerically. A series of simulation results are plotted for different biologically meaningful parameter values. Effects of variation of habitat complexity and the predator mortality rate and birth rate of prey on pattern formation are also reported. It is shown that cross-diffusion can lead to a wide variety of spatial and spatiotemporal pattern formation. It is found that the model exhibits spot and stripe pattern, and coexistence of both spot and strip patterns under the zero flux boundary condition. It is observed that cross-diffusion, habitat complexity, birth rate of prey and predator’s mortality rate play a significant role in the pattern formation of a distributed population system of predator-prey type.

  10. Rank One Strange Attractors in Periodically Kicked Predator-Prey System with Time-Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wenjie; Lin, Yiping; Dai, Yunxian; Zhao, Huitao

    2016-06-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of rank one strange attractor in a periodically kicked predator-prey system with time-delay. Our discussion is based on the theory of rank one maps formulated by Wang and Young. Firstly, we develop the rank one chaotic theory to delayed systems. It is shown that strange attractors occur when the delayed system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and encounters an external periodic force. Then we use the theory to the periodically kicked predator-prey system with delay, deriving the conditions for Hopf bifurcation and rank one chaos along with the results of numerical simulations.

  11. Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

    2014-11-11

    Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

  12. Bifurcation and complex dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Sohel Rana

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey system of Holling-I type in the closed first quadrant R+2. The existence and local stability of positive fixed point of the discrete dynamical system is analyzed algebraically. It is shown that the system undergoes a flip bifurcation and a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the interior of R+2 by using bifurcation theory. It has been found that the dynamical behavior of the model is very sensitive to the parameter values and the initial conditions. Numerical simulation results not only show the consistence with the theoretical analysis but also display the new and interesting dynamic behaviors, including phase portraits, period-9, 10, 20-orbits, attracting invariant circle, cascade of period-doubling bifurcation from period-20 leading to chaos, quasi-periodic orbits, and sudden disappearance of the chaotic dynamics and attracting chaotic set. In particular, we observe that when the prey is in chaotic dynamic, the predator can tend to extinction or to a stable equilibrium. The Lyapunov exponents are numerically computed to characterize the complexity of the dynamical behaviors. The analysis and results in this paper are interesting in mathematics and biology.

  13. An impulsive predator-prey system with modified Leslie-Gower and Holling type II schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Hongjian; Song Xinyu

    2008-01-01

    An impulsive predator-prey system with modified Leslie-Gower and Holling-type II schemes is presented. By using the Floquet theory of impulsive equation and small amplitude perturbation method, the globally asymptotical stability of prey-free positive periodic solution and the permanence of system are discussed. The corresponding threshold conditions are obtained respectively. Finally, numerical simulations are given

  14. Predator-prey interaction reveals local effects of high-altitude insect migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    High-altitude nocturnal insect migrations represent significant pulses of resources, yet are difficult to study and poorly understood. Predator-prey interactions, specifically migratory moth consumption by high-flying bats, potentially reveal flows of migratory insects across a landscape. In North...

  15. Senses & Sensibility: Predator-Prey Experiments Reveal How Fish Perceive & Respond to Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jason; Holloway, Barbara; Ketcham, Elizabeth; Long, John

    2008-01-01

    The predator-prey relationship is one of the most recognizable and well-studied animal relationships. One of the more striking aspects of this relationship is the differential natural selection pressure placed on predators and their prey. This differential pressure results from differing costs of failure, the so-called life-dinner principle. If a…

  16. Along Came a Spider: Using Live Arthropods in a Predator-Prey Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Matthew L.; Hari, Janice

    2011-01-01

    We developed a predator-prey activity with eighth-grade students in which they used wolf spiders ("Lycosa carolinensis"), house crickets ("Acheta domestica"), and abiotic factors to address how (1) adaptations in predators and prey shape their interaction and (2) abiotic factors modify the interaction between predators and…

  17. Examining predator-prey body size, trophic level and body mass across marine and terrestrial mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Marlee A; Rogers, Tracey L

    2014-12-22

    Predator-prey relationships and trophic levels are indicators of community structure, and are important for monitoring ecosystem changes. Mammals colonized the marine environment on seven separate occasions, which resulted in differences in species' physiology, morphology and behaviour. It is likely that these changes have had a major effect upon predator-prey relationships and trophic position; however, the effect of environment is yet to be clarified. We compiled a dataset, based on the literature, to explore the relationship between body mass, trophic level and predator-prey ratio across terrestrial (n = 51) and marine (n = 56) mammals. We did not find the expected positive relationship between trophic level and body mass, but we did find that marine carnivores sit 1.3 trophic levels higher than terrestrial carnivores. Also, marine mammals are largely carnivorous and have significantly larger predator-prey ratios compared with their terrestrial counterparts. We propose that primary productivity, and its availability, is important for mammalian trophic structure and body size. Also, energy flow and community structure in the marine environment are influenced by differences in energy efficiency and increased food web stability. Enhancing our knowledge of feeding ecology in mammals has the potential to provide insights into the structure and functioning of marine and terrestrial communities. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  18. Variation in predator foraging behavior changes predator-prey spatio-temporal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1. Foraging underlies the ability of all animals to acquire essential resources and, thus, provides a critical link to understanding population dynamics. A key issue is how variation in foraging behavior affects foraging efficiency and predator-prey interactions in spatially-heterogeneous environmen...

  19. Consequences of a refuge for the predator-prey dynamics of a wolf-elk system in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Joshua F; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bardsley, John

    2014-01-01

    Refugia can affect predator-prey dynamics via movements between refuge and non-refuge areas. We examine the influence of a refuge on population dynamics in a large mammal predator-prey system. Wolves (Canis lupus) have recolonized much of their former range in North America, and as a result, ungulate prey have exploited refugia to reduce predation risk with unknown impacts on wolf-prey dynamics. We examined the influence of a refuge on elk (Cervus elaphus) and wolf population dynamics in Banff National Park. Elk occupy the Banff townsite with little predation, whereas elk in the adjoining Bow Valley experience higher wolf predation. The Banff refuge may influence Bow Valley predator-prey dynamics through source-sink movements. To test this hypothesis, we used 26 years of wolf and elk population counts and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo method to fit five predator-prey models: 1) with no source-sink movements, 2) with elk density-dependent dispersal from the refuge to the non-refuge, 3) with elk predation risk avoidance movements from the non-refuge to the refuge, 4) with differential movement rates between refuge and non-refuge, and 5) with short-term, source-sink wolf movements. Model 1 provided the best fit of the data, as measured by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In the top model, Banff and Bow Valley elk had median growth rates of 0.08 and 0.03 (95% credibility intervals [CIs]: 0.027-0.186 and 0.001-0.143), respectively, Banff had a median carrying capacity of 630 elk (95% CI: 471.9-2676.9), Bow Valley elk had a median wolf encounter rate of 0.02 (95% CI: 0.013-0.030), and wolves had a median death rate of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.146-0.335) and a median conversion efficiency of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.031-0.124). We found little evidence for potential source-sink movements influencing the predator-prey dynamics of this system. This result suggests that the refuge was isolated from the non-refuge.

  20. Effect of sublethal levels of ionizing radiation on a predator-prey interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chee, P.C.

    1976-01-01

    The predator-prey interaction studied was that between the largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) in an artificial test environment. Experiments were first conducted to determine the 50% lethal dose at 30 days of the minnow. Three different dose rates were used to test the effect of dose rate on the 50% lethal dose value. After the 50% lethal dose was determined the predator-prey interaction experiment was conducted using 30% of the 50% lethal dose as the highest radiation dose, this dose being considered the upper limit to sublethal radiation levels. A 4 x 4 Latin square design was chosen for the experiment, with four treatment levels (control plus three radiation levels) and four replicates. In each test 10 prey minnow were offered to one predator bass and the number of prey left after 14 days was the parameter of interest. A predator-prey interaction experiment using a single high level of radiation and two types of controls as conducted to ascertain the ability of the test environment to detect changes in the predator-prey interaction. The two types of controls were irradiated prey not exposed to predation and non-irradiated prey exposed to predation. An experiment was also conducted to test the correlation between the physical activity patterns of minnow and different doses of radiation. At a dose rate of 37.8 rad/min the 50% lethal dose at 30 days for minnow was found to be 2650 rad. It was found that dose rate had a strong influence on the 50% lethal dose. In the predator-prey interaction test it was found that the 14-day survival rate of prey was unaffected by sublethal levels of ionizing radiation. No significant correlation was detected between the physical activity patterns of minnow and radiation dose

  1. Stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Lanchier, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the ...

  2. Biomechanics of predator-prey arms race in lion, zebra, cheetah and impala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Alan M.; Hubel, Tatjana Y.; Wilshin, Simon D.; Lowe, John C.; Lorenc, Maja; Dewhirst, Oliver P.; Bartlam-Brooks, Hattie L. A.; Diack, Rebecca; Bennitt, Emily; Golabek, Krystyna A.; Woledge, Roger C.; McNutt, J. Weldon; Curtin, Nancy A.; West, Timothy G.

    2018-02-01

    The fastest and most manoeuvrable terrestrial animals are found in savannah habitats, where predators chase and capture running prey. Hunt outcome and success rate are critical to survival, so both predator and prey should evolve to be faster and/or more manoeuvrable. Here we compare locomotor characteristics in two pursuit predator-prey pairs, lion-zebra and cheetah-impala, in their natural savannah habitat in Botswana. We show that although cheetahs and impalas were universally more athletic than lions and zebras in terms of speed, acceleration and turning, within each predator-prey pair, the predators had 20% higher muscle fibre power than prey, 37% greater acceleration and 72% greater deceleration capacity than their prey. We simulated hunt dynamics with these data and showed that hunts at lower speeds enable prey to use their maximum manoeuvring capacity and favour prey survival, and that the predator needs to be more athletic than its prey to sustain a viable success rate.

  3. Simulation Analyses of Behaviours of Spatially Extended Predator-Prey Systems with Random Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISHIKAWA, M.

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We often observe some kind or another of random fluctuations in physical, chemical and social phenomena to a greater or lesser extent. The analysis of influence of such fluctuations on phenomena is very important as a basic problem in various fields including design and planning of controlled systems in control engineering and analysis of option pricing in economics. In this paper, focusing on biological communities, we study the influence of the random fluctuations on predator-prey systems with diffusion. Noting that interaction of phytoplankton and zooplankton is the basis of a food chain in the lake and the ocean, we consider the two-species predator-prey systems consists of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We analyze the influence of the random fluctuations on the spatio-temporal patterns generated by phytoplankton and zooplankton by the numerical simulations.

  4. Predator-prey interactions as macro-scale drivers of species diversity in mammals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandom, Christopher James; Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalby, Lars

    Background/Question/Methods Understanding the importance of predator-prey interactions for species diversity is a central theme in ecology, with fundamental consequences for predicting the responses of ecosystems to land use and climate change. We assessed the relative support for different...... mechanistic drivers of mammal species richness at macro-scales for two trophic levels: predators and prey. To disentangle biotic (i.e. functional predator-prey interactions) from abiotic (i.e. environmental) and bottom-up from top-down determinants we considered three hypotheses: 1) environmental factors...... that determine ecosystem productivity drive prey and predator richness (the productivity hypothesis, abiotic, bottom-up), 2) consumer richness is driven by resource diversity (the resource diversity hypothesis, biotic, bottom-up) and 3) consumers drive richness of their prey (the top-down hypothesis, biotic, top...

  5. Hopf bifurcation of a ratio-dependent predator-prey system with time delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, Canan

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a ratio dependent predator-prey system with time delay where the dynamics is logistic with the carrying capacity proportional to prey population. By considering the time delay as bifurcation parameter, we analyze the stability and the Hopf bifurcation of the system based on the normal form approach and the center manifold theory. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical results by numerical simulations.

  6. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  7. Toward a community ecology of landscapes: predicting multiple predator-prey interactions across geographic space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Oswald J; Miller, Jennifer R B; Trainor, Anne M; Abrahms, Briana

    2017-09-01

    Community ecology was traditionally an integrative science devoted to studying interactions between species and their abiotic environments in order to predict species' geographic distributions and abundances. Yet for philosophical and methodological reasons, it has become divided into two enterprises: one devoted to local experimentation on species interactions to predict community dynamics; the other devoted to statistical analyses of abiotic and biotic information to describe geographic distribution. Our goal here is to instigate thinking about ways to reconnect the two enterprises and thereby return to a tradition to do integrative science. We focus specifically on the community ecology of predators and prey, which is ripe for integration. This is because there is active, simultaneous interest in experimentally resolving the nature and strength of predator-prey interactions as well as explaining patterns across landscapes and seascapes. We begin by describing a conceptual theory rooted in classical analyses of non-spatial food web modules used to predict species interactions. We show how such modules can be extended to consideration of spatial context using the concept of habitat domain. Habitat domain describes the spatial extent of habitat space that predators and prey use while foraging, which differs from home range, the spatial extent used by an animal to meet all of its daily needs. This conceptual theory can be used to predict how different spatial relations of predators and prey could lead to different emergent multiple predator-prey interactions such as whether predator consumptive or non-consumptive effects should dominate, and whether intraguild predation, predator interference or predator complementarity are expected. We then review the literature on studies of large predator-prey interactions that make conclusions about the nature of multiple predator-prey interactions. This analysis reveals that while many studies provide sufficient information

  8. The hydrodynamics of predator-prey interactions in zebrafish

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHenry, Matthew; Soto, Alberto; Carrillo, Andres; Byron, Margaret

    2017-11-01

    Hydrodynamics govern the behavior of fishes when they operate as predators or prey. In addition to the role of fluid forces in propulsion, fishes relay on flow stimuli to sense a predatory threat and to localize palatable prey. We have performed a series of experiments on zebrafish (Danio rerio) that aim to resolve the major factors that determine whether prey survive an encounter with a predator. Zebrafish serve as a model system in this pursuit because the adults prey on larvae of the same species and the larvae are often successful in evading the attacks of the adults. We use a combination of theoretical and experimental approaches to resolve the behavioral algorithms and kinematics that determined the outcome of these interactions. In this context, the hydrodynamics of intermediate Reynolds numbers largely determines the range of flow stimuli and the limits to locomotor performance at dictate prey survival. These principles have the potential to apply to a broad diversity of fishes and other aquatic animals. ONR: N00014-15-1-2249.

  9. Early life-history predator-prey reversal in two cyprinid fishes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmejkal, Marek; Baran, Roman; Blabolil, Petr; Vejřík, Lukáš; Prchalová, Marie; Bartoň, Daniel; Mrkvička, Tomáš; Kubečka, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, JUL (2017), č. článku 6924. ISSN 2045-2322 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 7F14316; GA ČR GPP505/12/P647 Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) StrategieAV21/9 Program:StrategieAV Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : predator-prey relationship * fish spawning * bleak * asp Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.259, year: 2016

  10. Dynamics analysis of a predator-prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xin-You; Qin, Ni-Ni; Huo, Hai-Feng

    2018-12-01

    In this paper, a predator-prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species is given. In the absence of time delay, the existence and stability of all equilibria are investigated. In the presence of time delay, some sufficient conditions of the local stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained by analysing the corresponding characteristic equation, and the properties of Hopf bifurcation are given by using the normal form theory and centre manifold theorem. Furthermore, an optimal harvesting policy is investigated by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations are performed to support our analytic results.

  11. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  12. Stochastic neuron models

    CERN Document Server

    Greenwood, Priscilla E

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a large number of open problems in the theory of stochastic neural systems, with the aim of enticing probabilists to work on them. This includes problems arising from stochastic models of individual neurons as well as those arising from stochastic models of the activities of small and large networks of interconnected neurons. The necessary neuroscience background to these problems is outlined within the text, so readers can grasp the context in which they arise. This book will be useful for graduate students and instructors providing material and references for applying probability to stochastic neuron modeling. Methods and results are presented, but the emphasis is on questions where additional stochastic analysis may contribute neuroscience insight. An extensive bibliography is included. Dr. Priscilla E. Greenwood is a Professor Emerita in the Department of Mathematics at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Lawrence M. Ward is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Brain...

  13. The Effects of Ocean Acidification on Predator-Prey Interactions between Mya arenaria and Callinectes sapidus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longmire, K.; Glaspie, C.; Seitz, R.

    2016-02-01

    The study examined the implications of ocean acidification for Mya arenaria and the predator-prey dynamics between M. arenaria and Callinectes sapidus. Clams were subjected to either ambient conditions or acidified conditions and grown over four weeks. Mortality, shell lengths, and biomass (ash-free dry weights) were recorded for clams destructively sampled each week. Clams were subjected to behavioral experiments to determine their response to an approaching physical disturbance. Crabs were exposed to acidified or ambient conditions for 48 hours, and placed in 48 hour mesocosm trials with clams. Shell lengths, mortality and biomass between the ambient and acidified clams were not significantly different between acidified and ambient treatments. Shell ash weights were lower for acidified clams, evidence of shell dissolution. In the behavioral experiment, ocean acidification reduced the ability of clams to respond to a predator stimulus. Lastly, in predator-prey mesocosm trials, in ambient conditions, crabs ate all or none of the available clams, whereas acidified crabs ate all available clams in many trials and ate at least one acidified clam per trial. The early effects of ocean acidification on M. arenaria will manifest in trophic interactions with other species, rather than impacting M. arenaria alone.

  14. Toxicity tests based on predator-prey and competitive interactions between freshwater macroinvertebrates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, E.J.; Blockwell, S.J.; Pascoe, D. [Univ. of Wales Coll. of Cardiff (United Kingdom)

    1994-12-31

    Simple multi-species toxicity tests based on the predation of Daphnia magna Straus by Hydra oligactis (Pallas) and competition between Gammarus pulex (L.) and Asellus aquaticus (L.) were used to determine the effects of three reference chemicals. Criteria examined included functional responses; time to first captures; handling times (predator/prey systems) and co-existence and growth. The tests which proved most practicable and sensitive (lowest observed effects 0.1, 21, and 80 {micro}g/l for lindane, copper and 3,4 dichloroaniline, respectively) were: (1) predator-prey tests: determining changes in the size-structure of predated D. magna populations and (2) competition tests: measuring the feeding rate of G. pulex competing with A. aquaticus, using a bioassay based on the time-response analysis of the consumption of Artemia salina eggs. The concentration of a chemical which affected particular response criteria was fond to depend on the test system employed. Results of the tests indicated that effects were often not dose-related and that a given criterion could be variously affected by different test concentrations. The complex pattern of responses may be explained in terms of the differential sensitivity of the interacting species and perhaps subtle alteration in strategies. The sensitivity of the bioassay endpoints is compared to those of a range of single species tests, and their value for predicting the impact pollutants may have upon natural freshwater ecosystems is discussed.

  15. Information theory and robotics meet to study predator-prey interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, Daniele; Ruberto, Tommaso; Cord-Cruz, Gabrielle; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2017-07-01

    Transfer entropy holds promise to advance our understanding of animal behavior, by affording the identification of causal relationships that underlie animal interactions. A critical step toward the reliable implementation of this powerful information-theoretic concept entails the design of experiments in which causal relationships could be systematically controlled. Here, we put forward a robotics-based experimental approach to test the validity of transfer entropy in the study of predator-prey interactions. We investigate the behavioral response of zebrafish to a fear-evoking robotic stimulus, designed after the morpho-physiology of the red tiger oscar and actuated along preprogrammed trajectories. From the time series of the positions of the zebrafish and the robotic stimulus, we demonstrate that transfer entropy correctly identifies the influence of the stimulus on the focal subject. Building on this evidence, we apply transfer entropy to study the interactions between zebrafish and a live red tiger oscar. The analysis of transfer entropy reveals a change in the direction of the information flow, suggesting a mutual influence between the predator and the prey, where the predator adapts its strategy as a function of the movement of the prey, which, in turn, adjusts its escape as a function of the predator motion. Through the integration of information theory and robotics, this study posits a new approach to study predator-prey interactions in freshwater fish.

  16. Chaotic behavior of a Watt-type predator-prey system with impulsive control strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiaoqin; Wang Weiming; Lin Xiaolin

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, by using theories and methods of ecology and ODE, a predator-prey system with Watt-type functional response and impulsive perturbations on the predator is established. It proves that there exists a locally asymptotically stable prey-eradication periodic solution when the impulse period is less than some critical value, otherwise, the system can be permanent. Further, by using the method of computer simulation, the influences of the impulsive perturbations on the inherent oscillation are investigated, which shows the more complex dynamics of the system we considered, such as quasi-periodic oscillation, narrow periodic window, wide periodic window, chaotic bands, period doubling bifurcation, symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation, period-halving bifurcation and crisis, etc. It will be useful for studying the dynamical complexity of ecosystems

  17. Bifurcation and complex dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey system involving group defense

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Sohel Rana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey system involving group defense. The existence and local stability of positive fixed point of the discrete dynamical system is analyzed algebraically. It is shown that the system undergoes a flip bifurcation and a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the interior of R+2 by using bifurcation theory. Numerical simulation results not only show the consistence with the theoretical analysis but also display the new and interesting dynamical behaviors, including phase portraits, period-7, 20-orbits, attracting invariant circle, cascade of period-doubling bifurcation from period-20 leading to chaos, quasi-periodic orbits, and sudden disappearance of the chaotic dynamics and attracting chaotic set. The Lyapunov exponents are numerically computed to characterize the complexity of the dynamical behaviors.

  18. Allee effect in a discrete-time predator-prey system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, Canan; Duman, Oktay

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we study the stability of a discrete-time predator-prey system with and without Allee effect. By analyzing both systems, we first obtain local stability conditions of the equilibrium points without the Allee effect and then exhibit the impact of the Allee effect on stability when it is imposed on prey population. We also show the stabilizing effect of Allee effect by numerical simulations and verify that when the prey population is subject to an Allee effect, the trajectory of the solutions approximates to the corresponding equilibrium point much faster. Furthermore, for some fixed parameter values satisfying necessary conditions, we show that the corresponding equilibrium point moves from instability to stability under the Allee effect on prey population.

  19. Persistence and Nonpersistence of a Predator Prey System with Stochastic Perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haihong Li

    2014-01-01

    show that this system has a unique positive solution. Then, we deduce conditions that the system is persistent in time average. Furthermore, we show the conditions that there is a stationary distribution of the system which implies that the system is permanent. After that, conditions for the system going extinct in probability are established. At last, numerical simulations are carried out to support our results.

  20. Stochastic modelling of turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Emil Hedevang Lohse

    previously been shown to be closely connected to the energy dissipation. The incorporation of the small scale dynamics into the spatial model opens the door to a fully fledged stochastic model of turbulence. Concerning the interaction of wind and wind turbine, a new method is proposed to extract wind turbine...

  1. Stochastic Control - External Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2005-01-01

    This note is devoted to control of stochastic systems described in discrete time. We are concerned with external descriptions or transfer function model, where we have a dynamic model for the input output relation only (i.e.. no direct internal information). The methods are based on LTI systems...

  2. Trophic predator-prey relationships promote transport of microplastics compared with the single Hypoaspis aculeifer and Folsomia candida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dong; Bi, Qing-Fang; Xiang, Qian; Chen, Qing-Lin; Christie, Peter; Ke, Xin; Wu, Long-Hua; Zhu, Yong-Guan

    2018-04-01

    Although the roles of earthworms and soil collembolans in the transport of microplastics have been studied previously, the effects of the soil biota at different trophic levels and interspecific relationships remain poorly understood. Here, we examine three soil microarthropod species to explore their effects on the transport of microplastics. The selected Folsomia candida and Hypoaspis aculeifer are extensively used model organisms, and Damaeus exspinosus is a common and abundant indigenous species in China. A model food chain (prey-collembolan and predator-mite) was structured to test the role of the predator-prey relationship in the transport of microplastics. Commercial Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) particles (Diameter: 80-250 μm) were selected as the test microplastics, because large amounts of PVC have persisted and accumulated in the environment. Synchronized soil microarthropods were held in plates for seven days to determine the movement of microplastics. The 5000 microplastic particles were carefully placed in the center of each plate prior to the introduction of the animals. Our results clearly show that all three microarthropod species moved and dispersed the microplastics in the plates. The 0.54%, 1.8% and 4.6% of the added microplastic particles were moved by collembolan, predatory mite and oribatid mite, respectively. Soil microarthropods (microplastic particles up to 9 cm. The avoidance behavior was observed in the collembolans in respect of the microplastics. The predatory -prey relationship did promote the transport of microplastics in the plates, increasing transport by 40% compared with the effects of adding single species (P microplastics by soil microarthropods may influence the exposure of other soil biota to microplastics and change the physical properties of soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

    KAUST Repository

    Naous, Rawan; Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Salama, Khaled N.

    2015-01-01

    Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

  4. Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

    KAUST Repository

    Naous, Rawan

    2015-10-26

    Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

  5. Permanence for a class of periodic time-dependent predator-prey system with dispersal in a patchy-environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Long; Teng Zhidong

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study two species predator-prey Lotka-Volterra type dispersal system with periodic coefficients in two patches, in which both the prey and predator species can disperse between two patches. By utilizing analytic method, sufficient and realistic conditions on permanence and the existence of periodic solution are established. The theoretical results are confirmed by a special example and numerical simulations

  6. Predicting the effects of ocean acidification on predator-prey interactions: a conceptual framework based on coastal molluscs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeker, Kristy J; Sanford, Eric; Jellison, Brittany M; Gaylord, Brian

    2014-06-01

    The influence of environmental change on species interactions will affect population dynamics and community structure in the future, but our current understanding of the outcomes of species interactions in a high-CO2 world is limited. Here, we draw upon emerging experimental research examining the effects of ocean acidification on coastal molluscs to provide hypotheses of the potential impacts of high-CO2 on predator-prey interactions. Coastal molluscs, such as oysters, mussels, and snails, allocate energy among defenses, growth, and reproduction. Ocean acidification increases the energetic costs of physiological processes such as acid-base regulation and calcification. Impacted molluscs can display complex and divergent patterns of energy allocation to defenses and growth that may influence predator-prey interactions; these include changes in shell properties, body size, tissue mass, immune function, or reproductive output. Ocean acidification has also been shown to induce complex changes in chemoreception, behavior, and inducible defenses, including altered cue detection and predator avoidance behaviors. Each of these responses may ultimately alter the susceptibility of coastal molluscs to predation through effects on predator handling time, satiation, and search time. While many of these effects may manifest as increases in per capita predation rates on coastal molluscs, the ultimate outcome of predator-prey interactions will also depend on how ocean acidification affects the specified predators, which also exhibit complex responses to ocean acidification. Changes in predator-prey interactions could have profound and unexplored consequences for the population dynamics of coastal molluscs in a high-CO2 ocean. © 2014 Marine Biological Laboratory.

  7. Adaptive Control Based Harvesting Strategy for a Predator-Prey Dynamical System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Moitri; Simha, Ashutosh; Raha, Soumyendu

    2018-04-23

    This paper deals with designing a harvesting control strategy for a predator-prey dynamical system, with parametric uncertainties and exogenous disturbances. A feedback control law for the harvesting rate of the predator is formulated such that the population dynamics is asymptotically stabilized at a positive operating point, while maintaining a positive, steady state harvesting rate. The hierarchical block strict feedback structure of the dynamics is exploited in designing a backstepping control law, based on Lyapunov theory. In order to account for unknown parameters, an adaptive control strategy has been proposed in which the control law depends on an adaptive variable which tracks the unknown parameter. Further, a switching component has been incorporated to robustify the control performance against bounded disturbances. Proofs have been provided to show that the proposed adaptive control strategy ensures asymptotic stability of the dynamics at a desired operating point, as well as exact parameter learning in the disturbance-free case and learning with bounded error in the disturbance prone case. The dynamics, with uncertainty in the death rate of the predator, subjected to a bounded disturbance has been simulated with the proposed control strategy.

  8. Effects of an infectious fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, on amphibian predator-prey interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara A Han

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The effects of parasites and pathogens on host behaviors may be particularly important in predator-prey contexts, since few animal behaviors are more crucial for ensuring immediate survival than the avoidance of lethal predators in nature. We examined the effects of an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, on anti-predator behaviors of tadpoles of four frog species. We also investigated whether amphibian predators consumed infected prey, and whether B. dendrobatidis caused differences in predation rates among prey in laboratory feeding trials. We found differences in anti-predator behaviors among larvae of four amphibian species, and show that infected tadpoles of one species (Anaxyrus boreas were more active and sought refuge more frequently when exposed to predator chemical cues. Salamander predators consumed infected and uninfected tadpoles of three other prey species at similar rates in feeding trials, and predation risk among prey was unaffected by B. dendrobatidis. Collectively, our results show that even sub-lethal exposure to B. dendrobatidis can alter fundamental anti-predator behaviors in some amphibian prey species, and suggest the unexplored possibility that indiscriminate predation between infected and uninfected prey (i.e., non-selective predation could increase the prevalence of this widely distributed pathogen in amphibian populations. Because one of the most prominent types of predators in many amphibian systems is salamanders, and because salamanders are susceptible to B. dendrobatidis, our work suggests the importance of considering host susceptibility and behavioral changes that could arise from infection in both predators and prey.

  9. Absence of frequent herpesvirus transmission in a nonhuman primate predator-prey system in the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, Sripriya; Couacy-Hymann, Emmanuel; Metzger, Sonja; Nowak, Kathrin; De Nys, Helene; Boesch, Christophe; Wittig, Roman; Jarvis, Michael A; Leendertz, Fabian H; Ehlers, Bernhard

    2013-10-01

    Emergence of viruses into the human population by transmission from nonhuman primates (NHPs) represents a serious potential threat to human health that is primarily associated with the increased bushmeat trade. Transmission of RNA viruses across primate species appears to be relatively frequent. In contrast, DNA viruses appear to be largely host specific, suggesting low transmission potential. Herein, we use a primate predator-prey system to study the risk of herpesvirus transmission between different primate species in the wild. The system was comprised of western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) and their primary (western red colobus, Piliocolobus badius badius) and secondary (black-and-white colobus, Colobus polykomos) prey monkey species. NHP species were frequently observed to be coinfected with multiple beta- and gammaherpesviruses (including new cytomegalo- and rhadinoviruses). However, despite frequent exposure of chimpanzees to blood, organs, and bones of their herpesvirus-infected monkey prey, there was no evidence for cross-species herpesvirus transmission. These findings suggest that interspecies transmission of NHP beta- and gammaherpesviruses is, at most, a rare event in the wild.

  10. The dynamics of a harvested predator-prey system with Holling type IV functional response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xinxin; Huang, Qingdao

    2018-05-31

    The paper aims to investigate the dynamical behavior of a predator-prey system with Holling type IV functional response in which both the species are subject to capturing. We mainly consider how the harvesting affects equilibria, stability, limit cycles and bifurcations in this system. We adopt the method of qualitative and quantitative analysis, which is based on the dynamical theory, bifurcation theory and numerical simulation. The boundedness of solutions, the existence and stability of equilibrium points of the system are further studied. Based on the Sotomayor's theorem, the existence of transcritical bifurcation and saddle-node bifurcation are derived. We use the normal form theorem to analyze the Hopf bifurcation. Simulation results show that the first Lyapunov coefficient is negative and a stable limit cycle may bifurcate. Numerical simulations are performed to make analytical studies more complete. This work illustrates that using the harvesting effort as control parameter can change the behaviors of the system, which may be useful for the biological management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  12. Research and Setting the Modified Algorithm "Predator-Prey" in the Problem of the Multi-Objective Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Karpenko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a class of algorithms for multi-objective optimization - Pareto-approximation algorithms, which suppose a preliminary building of finite-dimensional approximation of a Pareto set, thereby also a Pareto front of the problem. The article gives an overview of population and non-population algorithms of the Pareto-approximation, identifies their strengths and weaknesses, and presents a canonical algorithm "predator-prey", showing its shortcomings. We offer a number of modifications of the canonical algorithm "predator-prey" with the aim to overcome the drawbacks of this algorithm, present the results of a broad study of the efficiency of these modifications of the algorithm. The peculiarity of the study is the use of the quality indicators of the Pareto-approximation, which previous publications have not used. In addition, we present the results of the meta-optimization of the modified algorithm, i.e. determining the optimal values of some free parameters of the algorithm. The study of efficiency of the modified algorithm "predator-prey" has shown that the proposed modifications allow us to improve the following indicators of the basic algorithm: cardinality of a set of the archive solutions, uniformity of archive solutions, and computation time. By and large, the research results have shown that the modified and meta-optimized algorithm enables achieving exactly the same approximation as the basic algorithm, but with the number of preys being one order less. Computational costs are proportionally reduced.

  13. Identifiability in stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    1992-01-01

    The problem of identifiability is basic to all statistical methods and data analysis, occurring in such diverse areas as Reliability Theory, Survival Analysis, and Econometrics, where stochastic modeling is widely used. Mathematics dealing with identifiability per se is closely related to the so-called branch of ""characterization problems"" in Probability Theory. This book brings together relevant material on identifiability as it occurs in these diverse fields.

  14. Applied stochastic modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P

    2008-01-01

    Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

  15. Stochastic ontogenetic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; West, D.

    2012-02-01

    An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.

  16. Alternative Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe stochastic volatility model usually incorporates asymmetric effects by introducing the negative correlation between the innovations in returns and volatility. In this paper, we propose a new asymmetric stochastic volatility model, based on the leverage and size effects. The model is

  17. Nowhere to hide: Effects of linear features on predator-prey dynamics in a large mammal system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMars, Craig A; Boutin, Stan

    2018-01-01

    Rapid landscape alteration associated with human activity is currently challenging the evolved dynamical stability of many predator-prey systems by forcing species to behaviourally respond to novel environmental stimuli. In many forested systems, linear features (LFs) such as roads, pipelines and resource exploration lines (i.e. seismic lines) are a ubiquitous form of landscape alteration that have been implicated in altering predator-prey dynamics. One hypothesized effect is that LFs facilitate predator movement into and within prey refugia, thereby increasing predator-prey spatial overlap. We evaluated this hypothesis in a large mammal system, focusing on the interactions between boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and their two main predators, wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus), during the calving season of caribou. In this system, LFs extend into and occur within peatlands (i.e. bogs and nutrient-poor fens), a habitat type highly used by caribou due to its refugia effects. Using resource selection analyses, we found that LFs increased predator selection of peatlands. Female caribou appeared to respond by avoiding LFs and areas with high LF density. However, in our study area, most caribou cannot completely avoid exposure to LFs and variation in female response had demographic effects. In particular, increasing proportional use of LFs by females negatively impacted survival of their neonate calves. Collectively, these results demonstrate how LFs can reduce the efficacy of prey refugia. Mitigating such effects will require limiting or restoring LFs within prey refugia, although the effectiveness of mitigation efforts will depend upon spatial scale, which in turn will be influenced by the life-history traits of predator and prey. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  18. Not So Fast: Swimming Behavior of Sailfish during Predator-Prey Interactions using High-Speed Video and Accelerometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marras, Stefano; Noda, Takuji; Steffensen, John F; Svendsen, Morten B S; Krause, Jens; Wilson, Alexander D M; Kurvers, Ralf H J M; Herbert-Read, James; Boswell, Kevin M; Domenici, Paolo

    2015-10-01

    Billfishes are considered among the fastest swimmers in the oceans. Despite early estimates of extremely high speeds, more recent work showed that these predators (e.g., blue marlin) spend most of their time swimming slowly, rarely exceeding 2 m s(-1). Predator-prey interactions provide a context within which one may expect maximal speeds both by predators and prey. Beyond speed, however, an important component determining the outcome of predator-prey encounters is unsteady swimming (i.e., turning and accelerating). Although large predators are faster than their small prey, the latter show higher performance in unsteady swimming. To contrast the evading behaviors of their highly maneuverable prey, sailfish and other large aquatic predators possess morphological adaptations, such as elongated bills, which can be moved more rapidly than the whole body itself, facilitating capture of the prey. Therefore, it is an open question whether such supposedly very fast swimmers do use high-speed bursts when feeding on evasive prey, in addition to using their bill for slashing prey. Here, we measured the swimming behavior of sailfish by using high-frequency accelerometry and high-speed video observations during predator-prey interactions. These measurements allowed analyses of tail beat frequencies to estimate swimming speeds. Our results suggest that sailfish burst at speeds of about 7 m s(-1) and do not exceed swimming speeds of 10 m s(-1) during predator-prey interactions. These speeds are much lower than previous estimates. In addition, the oscillations of the bill during swimming with, and without, extension of the dorsal fin (i.e., the sail) were measured. We suggest that extension of the dorsal fin may allow sailfish to improve the control of the bill and minimize its yaw, hence preventing disturbance of the prey. Therefore, sailfish, like other large predators, may rely mainly on accuracy of movement and the use of the extensions of their bodies, rather than resorting

  19. Permanence of a Semi-Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey System with Nonmonotonic Functional Response and Time Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuepeng Li

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Sufficient conditions for permanence of a semi-ratio-dependent predator-prey system with nonmonotonic functional response and time delay ̇1(=1([1(−11(1(−(−12(2(/(2+21(],  ̇2(=2([2(−21(2(/1(], are obtained, where 1( and 2( stand for the density of the prey and the predator, respectively, and ≠0 is a constant. (≥0 stands for the time delays due to negative feedback of the prey population.

  20. Weak average persistence and extinction of a predator-prey system in a polluted environment with impulsive toxicant input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xiaofeng; Jin Zhen; Xue Yakui

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we have investigated a predator-prey system in a polluted environment with impulsive toxicant input at fixed moments. We have obtained two thresholds on the impulsive period by assuming the toxicant amount input is fixed to the environment at each pulse moment. If the impulsive period is greater than the big threshold, then both populations are weak average persistent. If the period lies between of the two thresholds, then the prey population will be weak average persistent while the predator population extinct. If the period is less than the small threshold, both populations tend to extinction. Finally, our theoretical results are confirmed by own numerical simulations

  1. Role of zonal flow predator-prey oscillations in triggering the transition to H-mode confinement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, L; Zeng, L; Rhodes, T L; Hillesheim, J C; Doyle, E J; Groebner, R J; Peebles, W A; Burrell, K H; Wang, G

    2012-04-13

    Direct evidence of zonal flow (ZF) predator-prey oscillations and the synergistic roles of ZF- and equilibrium E×B flow shear in triggering the low- to high-confinement (L- to H-mode) transition in the DIII-D tokamak is presented. Periodic turbulence suppression is first observed in a narrow layer at and just inside the separatrix when the shearing rate transiently exceeds the turbulence decorrelation rate. The final transition to H mode with sustained turbulence and transport reduction is controlled by equilibrium E×B shear due to the increasing ion pressure gradient.

  2. Rainfall Stochastic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  3. Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Distribution Unlimited Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...ADDRESS. Princeton University PO Box 0036 87 Prospect Avenue - 2nd floor Princeton, NJ 08544 -2020 14-Mar-2014 ABSTRACT Number of Papers published in...peer-reviewed journals: Number of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Stochastic Models of Polymer Systems Report Title

  4. Revealing the role of predator interference in a predator-prey system with disease in prey population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chakraborty, Subhendu; Kooi, B.W.; Biswas, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predation on a species subjected to an infectious disease can affect both the infection level and the population dynamics. There is an ongoing debate about the act of managing disease in natural populations through predation. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence shows that predation...... on infected populations can have both positive and negative influences on disease in prey populations. Here, we present a predator-prey system where the prey population is subjected to an infectious disease to explore the impact of predator on disease dynamics. Specifically, we investigate how...... on the strength of interference among predators, predators enhance or control disease outbreaks and population persistence. Moreover, the presence of multistable regimes makes the system very sensitive to perturbations and facilitates a number of regime shifts. Since, the habitat structure and the choice...

  5. Complex dynamics of Holling type II Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system with impulsive perturbations on the predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xianning; Chen Lansun

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops the Holling type II Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system, which may inherently oscillate, by introducing periodic constant impulsive immigration of predator. Condition for the system to be extinct is given and permanence condition is established via the method of comparison involving multiple Liapunov functions. Further influences of the impulsive perturbations on the inherent oscillation are studied numerically, which shows that with the increasing of the amount of the immigration, the system experiences process of quasi-periodic oscillating→cycles→periodic doubling cascade→chaos→periodic halfing cascade→cycles, which is characterized by (1) quasi-periodic oscillating, (2) period doubling, (3) period halfing, (4) non-unique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist

  6. Interactive effects of prey refuge and additional food for predator in a diffusive predator-prey system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chakraborty, Subhendu; Tiwari, P. K.; Sasmal, S.K.

    2017-01-01

    a predator-prey system with prey refuge and additional food for predator apart from the focal prey in the presence of diffusion. Our main aim is to study the interactive effects of prey refuge and additional food on the system dynamics and especially on the controllability of prey (pest). Different types......Additional food for predators has been considered as one of the best established techniques in integrated pest management and biological conservation programs. In natural systems, there are several other factors, e.g., prey refuge, affect the success of pest control. In this paper, we analyze...... of Turing patterns such as stripes, spots, holes, and mixtures of them are obtained. It is found that the supply of additional food to the predator is unable to control the prey (pest) population when prey refuge is high. Moreover, when both prey refuge and additional food are low, spatial distribution...

  7. Complex Dynamical Behaviors in a Predator-Prey System with Generalized Group Defense and Impulsive Control Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shunyi Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A predator-prey system with generalized group defense and impulsive control strategy is investigated. By using Floquet theorem and small amplitude perturbation skills, a local asymptotically stable prey-eradication periodic solution is obtained when the impulsive period is less than some critical value. Otherwise, the system is permanent if the impulsive period is larger than the critical value. By using bifurcation theory, we show the existence and stability of positive periodic solution when the pest eradication lost its stability. Numerical examples show that the system considered has more complicated dynamics, including (1 high-order quasiperiodic and periodic oscillation, (2 period-doubling and halving bifurcation, (3 nonunique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist, and (4 chaos and attractor crisis. Further, the importance of the impulsive period, the released amount of mature predators and the degree of group defense effect are discussed. Finally, the biological implications of the results and the impulsive control strategy are discussed.

  8. Patterns induced by super cross-diffusion in a predator-prey system with Michaelis-Menten type harvesting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Biao; Wu, Ranchao; Chen, Liping

    2018-04-01

    Turing instability and pattern formation in a super cross-diffusion predator-prey system with Michaelis-Menten type predator harvesting are investigated. Stability of equilibrium points is first explored with or without super cross-diffusion. It is found that cross-diffusion could induce instability of equilibria. To further derive the conditions of Turing instability, the linear stability analysis is carried out. From theoretical analysis, note that cross-diffusion is the key mechanism for the formation of spatial patterns. By taking cross-diffusion rate as bifurcation parameter, we derive amplitude equations near the Turing bifurcation point for the excited modes by means of weakly nonlinear theory. Dynamical analysis of the amplitude equations interprets the structural transitions and stability of various forms of Turing patterns. Furthermore, the theoretical results are illustrated via numerical simulations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selden, Rebecca L; Batt, Ryan D; Saba, Vincent S; Pinsky, Malin L

    2018-01-01

    Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO 2 . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Stochastic Still Water Response Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2002-01-01

    In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model is...... out that an important parameter of the stochastic cargo field model is the mean number of containers delivered by each customer.......In this study a stochastic field model for the still water loading is formulated where the statistics (mean value, standard deviation, and correlation) of the sectional forces are obtained by integration of the load field over the relevant part of the ship structure. The objective of the model...... is to establish the stochastic load field conditional on a given draft and trim of the vessel. The model contributes to a realistic modelling of the stochastic load processes to be used in a reliability evaluation of the ship hull. Emphasis is given to container vessels. The formulation of the model for obtaining...

  11. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  12. Stochastic models of cell motility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gradinaru, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    Cell motility and migration are central to the development and maintenance of multicellular organisms, and errors during this process can lead to major diseases. Consequently, the mechanisms and phenomenology of cell motility are currently under intense study. In recent years, a new...... interdisciplinary field focusing on the study of biological processes at the nanoscale level, with a range of technological applications in medicine and biological research, has emerged. The work presented in this thesis is at the interface of cell biology, image processing, and stochastic modeling. The stochastic...... models introduced here are based on persistent random motion, which I apply to real-life studies of cell motility on flat and nanostructured surfaces. These models aim to predict the time-dependent position of cell centroids in a stochastic manner, and conversely determine directly from experimental...

  13. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa

    2007-01-01

    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  14. Stochastic Modelling of River Geometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Schaarup-Jensen, K.

    1996-01-01

    Numerical hydrodynamic river models are used in a large number of applications to estimate critical events for rivers. These estimates are subject to a number of uncertainties. In this paper, the problem to evaluate these estimates using probabilistic methods is considered. Stochastic models for ...... for river geometries are formulated and a coupling between hydraulic computational methods and numerical reliability methods is presented....

  15. Stochastic Volatility and DSGE Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller

    This paper argues that a specification of stochastic volatility commonly used to analyze the Great Moderation in DSGE models may not be appropriate, because the level of a process with this specification does not have conditional or unconditional moments. This is unfortunate because agents may...

  16. Stochastic-field cavitation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

    2013-01-01

    Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian “particles” or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations

  17. Stochastic-field cavitation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumond, J.; Magagnato, F.; Class, A.

    2013-07-01

    Nonlinear phenomena can often be well described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally, the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and, in particular, to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. First, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

  18. A Fractionally Integrated Wishart Stochastic Volatility Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThere has recently been growing interest in modeling and estimating alternative continuous time multivariate stochastic volatility models. We propose a continuous time fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility (FIWSV) process. We derive the conditional Laplace transform of

  19. Transport properties of stochastic Lorentz models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beijeren, H. van

    Diffusion processes are considered for one-dimensional stochastic Lorentz models, consisting of randomly distributed fixed scatterers and one moving light particle. In waiting time Lorentz models the light particle makes instantaneous jumps between scatterers after a stochastically distributed

  20. Boundedness and permanence in a class of periodic time-dependent predator-prey system with prey dispersal and predator density-independence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Long; Teng Zhidong

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study two species predator-prey Lotka-Volterra type dispersal system with periodic coefficients, in which the prey species can disperse among n patches, while the density-independent predator species is confined to one of the patches and cannot disperse. Sufficient conditions on the boundedness, permanence and existence of positive periodic solution for this system are established. The theoretical results are confirmed by a special example and numerical simulations

  1. Multivariate Approach for Alzheimer's Disease Detection Using Stationary Wavelet Entropy and Predator-Prey Particle Swarm Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yudong; Wang, Shuihua; Sui, Yuxiu; Yang, Ming; Liu, Bin; Cheng, Hong; Sun, Junding; Jia, Wenjuan; Phillips, Preetha; Gorriz, Juan Manuel

    2017-07-17

    The number of patients with Alzheimer's disease is increasing rapidly every year. Scholars often use computer vision and machine learning methods to develop an automatic diagnosis system. In this study, we developed a novel machine learning system that can make diagnoses automatically from brain magnetic resonance images. First, the brain imaging was processed, including skull stripping and spatial normalization. Second, one axial slice was selected from the volumetric image, and stationary wavelet entropy (SWE) was done to extract the texture features. Third, a single-hidden-layer neural network was used as the classifier. Finally, a predator-prey particle swarm optimization was proposed to train the weights and biases of the classifier. Our method used 4-level decomposition and yielded 13 SWE features. The classification yielded an overall accuracy of 92.73±1.03%, a sensitivity of 92.69±1.29%, and a specificity of 92.78±1.51%. The area under the curve is 0.95±0.02. Additionally, this method only cost 0.88 s to identify a subject in online stage, after its volumetric image is preprocessed. In terms of classification performance, our method performs better than 10 state-of-the-art approaches and the performance of human observers. Therefore, this proposed method is effective in the detection of Alzheimer's disease.

  2. Evolution determines how global warming and pesticide exposure will shape predator-prey interactions with vector mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Tam T; Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh, Khuong V; Op de Beeck, Lin; Stoks, Robby

    2016-07-01

    How evolution may mitigate the effects of global warming and pesticide exposure on predator-prey interactions is directly relevant for vector control. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we addressed how 4°C warming and exposure to the pesticide endosulfan shape the predation on Culex pipiens mosquitoes by damselfly predators from replicated low- and high-latitude populations. Although warming was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates on these prey. Possibly, under warming escape speeds of the mosquitoes increased more than the attack efficiency of the predators. Endosulfan imposed mortality and induced behavioral changes (including increased filtering and thrashing and a positional shift away from the bottom) in mosquito larvae. Although the pesticide was only lethal for the mosquitoes, it reduced predation rates by the low-latitude predators. This can be explained by the combination of the evolution of a faster life history and associated higher vulnerabilities to the pesticide (in terms of growth rate and lowered foraging activity) in the low-latitude predators and pesticide-induced survival selection in the mosquitoes. Our results suggest that predation rates on mosquitoes at the high latitude will be reduced under warming unless predators evolve toward the current low-latitude phenotype or low-latitude predators move poleward.

  3. Stochastic diffusion models for substitutable technological innovations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, L.; Hu, B.; Yu, X.

    2004-01-01

    Based on the analysis of firms' stochastic adoption behaviour, this paper first points out the necessity to build more practical stochastic models. And then, stochastic evolutionary models are built for substitutable innovation diffusion system. Finally, through the computer simulation of the

  4. Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

    2008-01-01

    In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

  5. Stochastic models for atmospheric dispersion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    Simple stochastic differential equation models have been applied by several researchers to describe the dispersion of tracer particles in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and to form the basis for computer simulations of particle paths. To obtain the drift coefficient, empirical vertical...... positions close to the boundaries. Different rules have been suggested in the literature with justifications based on simulation studies. Herein the relevant stochastic differential equation model is formulated in a particular way. The formulation is based on the marginal transformation of the position...... velocity distributions that depend on height above the ground both with respect to standard deviation and skewness are substituted into the stationary Fokker/Planck equation. The particle position distribution is taken to be uniform *the well/mixed condition( and also a given dispersion coefficient...

  6. Stochastic modeling and analysis of telecoms networks

    CERN Document Server

    Decreusefond, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    This book addresses the stochastic modeling of telecommunication networks, introducing the main mathematical tools for that purpose, such as Markov processes, real and spatial point processes and stochastic recursions, and presenting a wide list of results on stability, performances and comparison of systems.The authors propose a comprehensive mathematical construction of the foundations of stochastic network theory: Markov chains, continuous time Markov chains are extensively studied using an original martingale-based approach. A complete presentation of stochastic recursions from an

  7. Stability analysis of predator-prey interaction with a crowding effect ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical modeling of species interactions usually relies on competition models. However, it is known that species interactions may exhibit more complicated patterns with a crowding effect and this can be particularly important in benign environments. In this paper we discuss competition models with a crowding ...

  8. The role of zonal flows and predator-prey oscillations in triggering the formation of edge and core transport barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, L.; Zeng, L.; Rhodes, T. L.; Hillesheim, J. C.; Peebles, W. A.; Groebner, R. J.; Burrell, K. H.; McKee, G. R.; Yan, Z.; Tynan, G. R.; Diamond, P. H.; Boedo, J. A.; Doyle, E. J.; Grierson, B. A.; Chrystal, C.; Austin, M. E.; Solomon, W. M.; Wang, G.

    2014-07-01

    We present direct evidence of low frequency, radially sheared, turbulence-driven flows (zonal flows (ZFs)) triggering edge transport barrier formation preceding the L- to H-mode transition via periodic turbulence suppression in limit-cycle oscillations (LCOs), consistent with predator-prey dynamics. The final transition to edge-localized mode-free H-mode occurs after the equilibrium E × B flow shear increases due to ion pressure profile evolution. ZFs are also observed to initiate formation of an electron internal transport barrier (ITB) at the q = 2 rational surface via local suppression of electron-scale turbulence. Multi-channel Doppler backscattering (DBS) has revealed the radial structure of the ZF-induced shear layer and the E × B shearing rate, ωE×B, in both barrier types. During edge barrier formation, the shearing rate lags the turbulence envelope during the LCO by 90°, transitioning to anti-correlation (180°) when the equilibrium shear dominates the turbulence-driven flow shear due to the increasing edge pressure gradient. The time-dependent flow shear and the turbulence envelope are anti-correlated (180° out of phase) in the electron ITB. LCOs with time-reversed evolution dynamics (transitioning from an equilibrium-flow dominated to a ZF-dominated state) have also been observed during the H-L back-transition and are potentially of interest for controlled ramp-down of the plasma stored energy and pressure (normalized to the poloidal magnetic field) \\beta_{\\theta} =2\\mu_{0} n{( {T_{e} +T_{i}})}/{B_{\\theta}^{2}} in ITER.

  9. An exceptionally preserved Eocene shark and the rise of modern predator-prey interactions in the coral reef food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanti, Federico; Minelli, Daniela; Conte, Gabriele Larocca; Miyashita, Tetsuto

    2016-01-01

    Following extreme climatic warming events, Eocene Lagerstätten document aquatic and terrestrial vertebrate faunas surprisingly similar to modern counterparts. This transition in marine systems is best documented in the earliest teleost-dominated coral reef assemblage of Pesciara di Bolca, northern Italy, from near the end of the Eocene Climatic Optimum. Its rich fauna shows similarities with that of the modern Great Barrier Reef in niche exploitation by and morphological disparity among teleost primary consumers. However, such paleoecological understanding has not transcended trophic levels above primary consumers, particularly in carcharhiniform sharks. We report an exceptionally preserved fossil school shark (Galeorhinus cuvieri) from Pesciara di Bolca. In addition to the spectacular preservation of soft tissues, including brain, muscles, and claspers, this male juvenile shark has stomach contents clearly identifiable as a sphyraenid acanthomorph (barracuda). This association provides evidence that a predator-prey relationship between Galeorhinus and Sphyraena in the modern coral reefs has roots in the Eocene. A growth curve of the living species of Galeorhinus fitted to G. cuvieri suggests that all specimens of G. cuvieri from the lagoonal deposits of Bolca represent sexually and somatically immature juveniles. The modern trophic association between higher-degree consumers (Galeorhinus and Sphyraena) has a counterpart in the Eocene Bolca, just as Bolca and the Great Barrier Reef show parallels among teleost primary consumers. Given the age of Bolca, trophic networks among consumers observed in modern coral reefs arose by the exit from the Climatic Optimum. The biased representation of juveniles suggests that the Bolca Lagerstätte served as a nursery habitat for G. cuvieri. Ultraviolet photography may be useful in probing for exceptional soft tissue preservation before common acid preparation methods.

  10. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  11. Spatio-temporal pattern formation in predator-prey systems with fitness taxis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene T.; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Sørensen, Mads Peter

    2018-01-01

    We pose a spatial predator–prey model in which the movement of animals is not purely diffusive, but also contains a drift term in the direction of higher specific growth rates. We refer to this as fitness taxis. We conduct a linear stability analysis of the resulting coupled reaction–advection–di......We pose a spatial predator–prey model in which the movement of animals is not purely diffusive, but also contains a drift term in the direction of higher specific growth rates. We refer to this as fitness taxis. We conduct a linear stability analysis of the resulting coupled reaction...... of diffusive motion, is ecologically plausible, and provides an alternative mechanism for formation of patterns in spatially explicit ecosystem models, with emphasis on non-stationary spatio-temporal dynamics....

  12. Stochastic Subspace Modelling of Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2009-01-01

    positive definite cross-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order......, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.......Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper...

  13. Stochastic models, estimation, and control

    CERN Document Server

    Maybeck, Peter S

    1982-01-01

    This volume builds upon the foundations set in Volumes 1 and 2. Chapter 13 introduces the basic concepts of stochastic control and dynamic programming as the fundamental means of synthesizing optimal stochastic control laws.

  14. An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Charmain D; Kovacs, Kit M; Ims, Rolf A; Aars, Jon; Lydersen, Christian

    2017-09-01

    Climate change is impacting different species at different rates, leading to alterations in biological interactions with ramifications for wider ecosystem functioning. Understanding these alterations can help improve predictive capacity and inform management efforts designed to mitigate against negative impacts. We investigated how the movement and space use patterns of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in coastal areas in Svalbard, Norway, have been altered by a sudden decline in sea ice that occurred in 2006. We also investigated whether the spatial overlap between polar bears and their traditionally most important prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida), has been affected by the sea-ice decline, as polar bears are dependent on a sea-ice platform for hunting seals. We attached biotelemetry devices to ringed seals (n = 60, both sexes) and polar bears (n = 67, all females) before (2002-2004) and after (2010-2013) a sudden decline in sea ice in Svalbard. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association of these species to environmental features and an approach based on Time Spent in Area to investigate changes in spatial overlap between the two species. Following the sea-ice reduction, polar bears spent the same amount of time close to tidal glacier fronts in the spring but less time in these areas during the summer and autumn. However, ringed seals did not alter their association with glacier fronts during summer, leading to a major decrease in spatial overlap values between these species in Svalbard's coastal areas. Polar bears now move greater distances daily and spend more time close to ground-nesting bird colonies, where bear predation can have substantial local effects. Our results indicate that sea-ice declines have impacted the degree of spatial overlap and hence the strength of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals, with consequences for the wider Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Shifts in ecological

  15. A predator-prey system with stage-structure for predator and nonlocal delay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Z.G.; Pedersen, Michael; Zhang, Lai

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with the behavior of solutions to the reaction-diffusion system under homogeneous Neumann boundary condition, which describes a prey-predator model with nonlocal delay. Sufficient conditions for the global stability of each equilibrium are derived by the Lyapunov functional...... and the results show that the introduction of stage-structure into predator positively affects the coexistence of prey and predator. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the results....

  16. Sequential neural models with stochastic layers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fraccaro, Marco; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Paquet, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural...... generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over...

  17. Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: workshop on predator-prey interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bailey, Kevin M.; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Hunsicker, Mary

    2010-01-01

    in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA on 16–18 March 2010. The meeting brought together scientists from diverse fields of expertise including theoretical ecology, animal behaviour, fish and seabird ecology, statistics, fisheries science and ecosystem modelling......Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator–prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator–prey interactions...

  18. Interactions in a tritrophic acarine predator-prey metapopulation system III

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nachman, Gösta; Zemek, R.

    2002-01-01

    Spider mites are serious pests on many economically important plant species, because they may reduce plant productivity and, at high mite densities, overexploit and even kill the host plants. We have conducted a series of greenhouse experiments to quantify the effects of two-spotted spider mites...... (Tetranychus urticae) on host plants (Phaseolusvulgaris). The average amount of chlorophyll per cm2 leaf area was used as a measure of plant condition. It was shown that chlorophyll concentration decreases with plant age and intensity of spider mite feeding. Damage caused by spider mites was assessed visually...... caused by spider mites (D). D takes values between 0 (no injury) and 1 (all leaves dead). A highly significant positive relationship between the instantaneous spider mite density and D was found, even though D is expected to reflect the cumulated density of mites (mite-days). A model of plant growth...

  19. Effects of dams on downstream molluscan predator-prey interactions in the Colorado River estuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jansen A; Handley, John C; Dietl, Gregory P

    2018-05-30

    River systems worldwide have been modified for human use and the downstream ecological consequences are often poorly understood. In the Colorado River estuary, where upstream water diversions have limited freshwater input during the last century, mollusc remains from the last several hundred years suggest widespread ecological change. The once abundant clam Mulinia modesta has undergone population declines of approximately 94% and populations of predators relying on this species as a food source have probably declined, switched to alternative prey species or both. We distinguish between the first two hypotheses using a null model of predation preference to test whether M. modesta was preyed upon selectively by the naticid snail, Neverita reclusiana , along the estuary's past salinity gradient. To evaluate the third hypothesis, we estimate available prey biomass today and in the past, assuming prey were a limiting resource. Data on the frequency of drill holes-identifiable traces of naticid predation on prey shells-showed several species, including M. modesta , were preferred prey. Neverita reclusiana was probably able to switch prey. Available prey biomass also declined, suggesting the N. reclusiana population probably also declined. These results indicate a substantial change to the structure of the benthic food web. Given the global scale of water management, such changes have probably also occurred in many of the world's estuaries. © 2018 The Author(s).

  20. A stochastic model of hormesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yakovlev, A.Yu.; Tsodikov, A.D.; Bass, L.

    1993-01-01

    In order to describe the life-prolonging effect of some agents that are harmful at higher doses, ionizing radiations in particular, a stochastic model is developed in terms of accumulation and progression of intracellular lesions caused by the environment and by the agent itself. The processes of lesion repair, operating at the molecular and cellular level, are assumed to be responsible for this hormesis effect within the framework of the proposed model. Properties of lifetime distributions, derived for analysis of animal experiments with prolonged and acute irradiation, are given special attention. The model provides efficient means of interpreting experimental findings, as evidenced by its application to analysis of some published data on the hormetic effects of prolonged irradiation and of procaine on animal longevity. 51 refs., 2 figs., 1 tabs

  1. Stochastic models for tumoral growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Carlos

    2006-02-01

    Strong experimental evidence has indicated that tumor growth belongs to the molecular beam epitaxy universality class. This type of growth is characterized by the constraint of cell proliferation to the tumor border and the surface diffusion of cells at the growing edge. Tumor growth is thus conceived as a competition for space between the tumor and the host, and cell diffusion at the tumor border is an optimal strategy adopted for minimizing the pressure and helping tumor development. Two stochastic partial differential equations are reported in this paper in order to correctly model the physical properties of tumoral growth in (1+1) and (2+1) dimensions. The advantage of these models is that they reproduce the correct geometry of the tumor and are defined in terms of polar variables. An analysis of these models allows us to quantitatively estimate the response of the tumor to an unfavorable perturbation during growth.

  2. Stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacate, Matthew O.; Evenson, William E.

    2011-04-01

    The stochastic hyperfine interactions modeling library (SHIML) provides a set of routines to assist in the development and application of stochastic models of hyperfine interactions. The library provides routines written in the C programming language that (1) read a text description of a model for fluctuating hyperfine fields, (2) set up the Blume matrix, upon which the evolution operator of the system depends, and (3) find the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Blume matrix so that theoretical spectra of experimental techniques that measure hyperfine interactions can be calculated. The optimized vector and matrix operations of the BLAS and LAPACK libraries are utilized; however, there was a need to develop supplementary code to find an orthonormal set of (left and right) eigenvectors of complex, non-Hermitian matrices. In addition, example code is provided to illustrate the use of SHIML to generate perturbed angular correlation spectra for the special case of polycrystalline samples when anisotropy terms of higher order than A can be neglected. Program summaryProgram title: SHIML Catalogue identifier: AEIF_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEIF_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU GPL 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8224 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 312 348 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C Computer: Any Operating system: LINUX, OS X RAM: Varies Classification: 7.4 External routines: TAPP [1], BLAS [2], a C-interface to BLAS [3], and LAPACK [4] Nature of problem: In condensed matter systems, hyperfine methods such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), Mössbauer effect (ME), muon spin rotation (μSR), and perturbed angular correlation spectroscopy (PAC) measure electronic and magnetic structure within Angstroms of nuclear probes through the hyperfine interaction. When

  3. CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanwan Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.

  4. Consistent Stochastic Modelling of Meteocean Design Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Sterndorff, M. J.

    2000-01-01

    Consistent stochastic models of metocean design parameters and their directional dependencies are essential for reliability assessment of offshore structures. In this paper a stochastic model for the annual maximum values of the significant wave height, and the associated wind velocity, current...

  5. Stochastic modeling of soil salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suweis, S.; Porporato, A. M.; Daly, E.; van der Zee, S.; Maritan, A.; Rinaldo, A.

    2010-12-01

    A minimalist stochastic model of primary soil salinity is proposed, in which the rate of soil salinization is determined by the balance between dry and wet salt deposition and the intermittent leaching events caused by rainfall events. The equations for the probability density functions of salt mass and concentration are found by reducing the coupled soil moisture and salt mass balance equations to a single stochastic differential equation (generalized Langevin equation) driven by multiplicative Poisson noise. Generalized Langevin equations with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual Ito (I) or Stratonovich (S) prescription dilemma. Different interpretations lead to different results and then choosing between the I and S prescriptions is crucial to describe correctly the dynamics of the model systems. We show how this choice can be determined by physical information about the timescales involved in the process. We also show that when the multiplicative noise is at most linear in the random variable one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We then apply these results to the generalized Langevin equation that drives the salt mass dynamics. The stationary analytical solutions for the probability density functions of salt mass and concentration provide insight on the interplay of the main soil, plant and climate parameters responsible for long term soil salinization. In particular, they show the existence of two distinct regimes, one where the mean salt mass remains nearly constant (or decreases) with increasing rainfall frequency, and another where mean salt content increases markedly with increasing rainfall frequency. As a result, relatively small reductions of rainfall in drier climates may entail dramatic shifts in longterm soil salinization trends, with significant consequences, e.g. for climate change impacts on rain fed agriculture.

  6. Complex Dynamics on the Routes to Chaos in a Discrete Predator-Prey System with Crowley-Martin Type Functional Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huayong Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present in this paper an investigation on a discrete predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin type functional response to know its complex dynamics on the routes to chaos which are induced by bifurcations. Via application of the center manifold theorem and bifurcation theorems, occurrence conditions for flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation are determined, respectively. Numerical simulations are performed, on the one hand, verifying the theoretical results and, on the other hand, revealing new interesting dynamical behaviors of the discrete predator-prey system, including period-doubling cascades, period-2, period-3, period-4, period-5, period-6, period-7, period-8, period-9, period-11, period-13, period-15, period-16, period-20, period-22, period-24, period-30, and period-34 orbits, invariant cycles, chaotic attractors, sub-flip bifurcation, sub-(inverse Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, chaotic interior crisis, chaotic band, sudden disappearance of chaotic dynamics and abrupt emergence of chaos, and intermittent periodic behaviors. Moreover, three-dimensional bifurcation diagrams are utilized to study the transition between flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, and a critical case between the two bifurcations is found. This critical bifurcation case is a combination of flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, showing the nonlinear characteristics of both bifurcations.

  7. Predator-prey interactions between a recent invader, the Chinese sleeper (Perccottus glenii and the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis: a case study from Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vytautas Rakauskas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The European pond turtle, Emys orbicularis, is a critically endangered species in most European countries. Habitat degradation and fragmentation are considered the main reasons for the decline of E. orbicularis. However, the spread of invasive species may also contribute to the disappearance of E. orbicularis populations. We examined the range overlap and predator-prey interactions between the invasive Chinese sleeper, Perccottus glenii, and E. orbicularis through controlled experiments and in field studies. Field surveys showed that both species occupied similar habitats. Predator-prey experiments suggested that newly hatched turtles are resistant to P. glenii predation. Conversely, adults of E. orbicularis consumed juvenile P. glenii even when other food sources were available. Overall, these findings suggested that E. orbicularis is not among the potential prey organisms in the diet of the invasive P. glenii, and that this fish does not directly contribute to the decline of E. orbicularis in Europe.

  8. Stochastic quantization for the axial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farina, C.; Montani, H.; Albuquerque, L.C.

    1991-01-01

    We use bosonization ideas to solve the axial model in the stochastic quantization framework. We obtain the fermion propagator of the theory decoupling directly the Langevin equation, instead of the Fokker-Planck equation. In the Appendix we calculate explicitly the anomalous divergence of the axial-vector current by using a regularization that does not break the Markovian character of the stochastic process

  9. Stochastic models of intracellular transport

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2013-01-09

    The interior of a living cell is a crowded, heterogenuous, fluctuating environment. Hence, a major challenge in modeling intracellular transport is to analyze stochastic processes within complex environments. Broadly speaking, there are two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport: passive diffusion and motor-driven active transport. Diffusive transport can be formulated in terms of the motion of an overdamped Brownian particle. On the other hand, active transport requires chemical energy, usually in the form of adenosine triphosphate hydrolysis, and can be direction specific, allowing biomolecules to be transported long distances; this is particularly important in neurons due to their complex geometry. In this review a wide range of analytical methods and models of intracellular transport is presented. In the case of diffusive transport, narrow escape problems, diffusion to a small target, confined and single-file diffusion, homogenization theory, and fractional diffusion are considered. In the case of active transport, Brownian ratchets, random walk models, exclusion processes, random intermittent search processes, quasi-steady-state reduction methods, and mean-field approximations are considered. Applications include receptor trafficking, axonal transport, membrane diffusion, nuclear transport, protein-DNA interactions, virus trafficking, and the self-organization of subcellular structures. © 2013 American Physical Society.

  10. STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Test

    Results are highly accurate and promising for all models based on Lewis' criteria. ... hydrological cycle. Future increases in ... STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF OGUN BASIN, NIGERIA. 71 ...

  11. Towards Model Checking Stochastic Process Algebra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermanns, H.; Grieskamp, W.; Santen, T.; Katoen, Joost P.; Stoddart, B.; Meyer-Kayser, J.; Siegle, M.

    2000-01-01

    Stochastic process algebras have been proven useful because they allow behaviour-oriented performance and reliability modelling. As opposed to traditional performance modelling techniques, the behaviour- oriented style supports composition and abstraction in a natural way. However, analysis of

  12. Stochastic biomathematical models with applications to neuronal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Batzel, Jerry; Ditlevsen, Susanne

    2013-01-01

    Stochastic biomathematical models are becoming increasingly important as new light is shed on the role of noise in living systems. In certain biological systems, stochastic effects may even enhance a signal, thus providing a biological motivation for the noise observed in living systems. Recent advances in stochastic analysis and increasing computing power facilitate the analysis of more biophysically realistic models, and this book provides researchers in computational neuroscience and stochastic systems with an overview of recent developments. Key concepts are developed in chapters written by experts in their respective fields. Topics include: one-dimensional homogeneous diffusions and their boundary behavior, large deviation theory and its application in stochastic neurobiological models, a review of mathematical methods for stochastic neuronal integrate-and-fire models, stochastic partial differential equation models in neurobiology, and stochastic modeling of spreading cortical depression.

  13. Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, Marek

    2014-01-01

    This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

  14. Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G

    2011-01-01

    Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi

  15. Modelling and application of stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    1986-01-01

    The subject of modelling and application of stochastic processes is too vast to be exhausted in a single volume. In this book, attention is focused on a small subset of this vast subject. The primary emphasis is on realization and approximation of stochastic systems. Recently there has been considerable interest in the stochastic realization problem, and hence, an attempt has been made here to collect in one place some of the more recent approaches and algorithms for solving the stochastic realiza­ tion problem. Various different approaches for realizing linear minimum-phase systems, linear nonminimum-phase systems, and bilinear systems are presented. These approaches range from time-domain methods to spectral-domain methods. An overview of the chapter contents briefly describes these approaches. Also, in most of these chapters special attention is given to the problem of developing numerically ef­ ficient algorithms for obtaining reduced-order (approximate) stochastic realizations. On the application side,...

  16. Numerical Simulation of the Heston Model under Stochastic Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Teng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic correlation models have become increasingly important in financial markets. In order to be able to price vanilla options in stochastic volatility and correlation models, in this work, we study the extension of the Heston model by imposing stochastic correlations driven by a stochastic differential equation. We discuss the efficient algorithms for the extended Heston model by incorporating stochastic correlations. Our numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms can efficiently provide highly accurate results for the extended Heston by including stochastic correlations. By investigating the effect of stochastic correlations on the implied volatility, we find that the performance of the Heston model can be proved by including stochastic correlations.

  17. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Zhang, Zhihua; Wong, Ka-Chun; Zhang, Xiangliang; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference

  18. Stochastic interest rates model in compounding | Galadima ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stochastic interest rates model in compounding. ... in finance, real estate, insurance, accounting and other areas of business administration. The assumption that future rates are fixed and known with certainty at the beginning of an investment, ...

  19. Moment Closure for the Stochastic Logistic Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Singh, Abhyudai; Hespanha, Joao P

    2006-01-01

    ..., which we refer to as the moment closure function. In this paper, a systematic procedure for constructing moment closure functions of arbitrary order is presented for the stochastic logistic model...

  20. A stochastic model of enzyme kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanini, Marianne; Newman, Timothy; McKane, Alan

    2003-10-01

    Enzyme kinetics is generally modeled by deterministic rate equations, and in the simplest case leads to the well-known Michaelis-Menten equation. It is plausible that stochastic effects will play an important role at low enzyme concentrations. We have addressed this by constructing a simple stochastic model which can be exactly solved in the steady-state. Throughout a wide range of parameter values Michaelis-Menten dynamics is replaced by a new and simple theoretical result.

  1. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  2. Modelling Cow Behaviour Using Stochastic Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Ragnar Ingi

    This report covers an initial study on the modelling of cow behaviour using stochastic automata with the aim of detecting lameness. Lameness in cows is a serious problem that needs to be dealt with because it results in less profitable production units and in reduced quality of life...... for the affected livestock. By featuring training data consisting of measurements of cow activity, three different models are obtained, namely an autonomous stochastic automaton, a stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output and an autonomous stochastic automaton with coinciding state and output, all...... of which describe the cows' activity in the two regarded behavioural scenarios, non-lame and lame. Using the experimental measurement data the different behavioural relations for the two regarded behavioural scenarios are assessed. The three models comprise activity within last hour, activity within last...

  3. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  4. Dynamics of a Stochastic Intraguild Predation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zejing Xing

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intraguild predation (IGP is a widespread ecological phenomenon which occurs when one predator species attacks another predator species with which it competes for a shared prey species. The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical properties of a stochastic intraguild predation model. We analyze stochastic persistence and extinction of the stochastic IGP model containing five cases and establish the sufficient criteria for global asymptotic stability of the positive solutions. This study shows that it is possible for the coexistence of three species under the influence of environmental noise, and that the noise may have a positive effect for IGP species. A stationary distribution of the stochastic IGP model is established and it has the ergodic property, suggesting that the time average of population size with the development of time is equal to the stationary distribution in space. Finally, we show that our results may be extended to two well-known biological systems: food chains and exploitative competition.

  5. Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2001-01-01

    A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

  6. Stochastic Wake Modelling Based on POD Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Bastine

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, large eddy simulation data is analysed to investigate a new stochastic modeling approach for the wake of a wind turbine. The data is generated by the large eddy simulation (LES model PALM combined with an actuator disk with rotation representing the turbine. After applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD, three different stochastic models for the weighting coefficients of the POD modes are deduced resulting in three different wake models. Their performance is investigated mainly on the basis of aeroelastic simulations of a wind turbine in the wake. Three different load cases and their statistical characteristics are compared for the original LES, truncated PODs and the stochastic wake models including different numbers of POD modes. It is shown that approximately six POD modes are enough to capture the load dynamics on large temporal scales. Modeling the weighting coefficients as independent stochastic processes leads to similar load characteristics as in the case of the truncated POD. To complete this simplified wake description, we show evidence that the small-scale dynamics can be captured by adding to our model a homogeneous turbulent field. In this way, we present a procedure to derive stochastic wake models from costly computational fluid dynamics (CFD calculations or elaborated experimental investigations. These numerically efficient models provide the added value of possible long-term studies. Depending on the aspects of interest, different minimalized models may be obtained.

  7. GillespieSSA: Implementing the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Pineda-Krch

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic dynamics of populations in continuous time are traditionally described using coupled, first-order ordinary differential equations. While this approach is accurate for large systems, it is often inadequate for small systems where key species may be present in small numbers or where key reactions occur at a low rate. The Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA is a procedure for generating time-evolution trajectories of finite populations in continuous time and has become the standard algorithm for these types of stochastic models. This article presents a simple-to-use and flexible framework for implementing the SSA using the high-level statistical computing language R and the package GillespieSSA. Using three ecological models as examples (logistic growth, Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model, and Kermack-McKendrick SIRS metapopulation model, this paper shows how a deterministic model can be formulated as a finite-population stochastic model within the framework of SSA theory and how it can be implemented in R. Simulations of the stochastic models are performed using four different SSA Monte Carlo methods: one exact method (Gillespie's direct method; and three approximate methods (explicit, binomial, and optimized tau-leap methods. Comparison of simulation results confirms that while the time-evolution trajectories obtained from the different SSA methods are indistinguishable, the approximate methods are up to four orders of magnitude faster than the exact methods.

  8. Stochastic differential equations used to model conjugation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are used to model horizontal transfer of antibiotic resis- tance by conjugation. The model describes the concentration of donor, recipient, transconjugants and substrate. The strength of the SDE model over the traditional ODE models is that the noise can...

  9. Stochastic Modeling of Traffic Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, modeling of traffic air pollution is discussed with special reference to infrastructures. A number of subjects related to health effects of air pollution and the different types of pollutants are briefly presented. A simple model for estimating the social cost of traffic related air...... and using simple Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a stochastic estimate of the costs of traffic air pollution for infrastructures....... pollution is derived. Several authors have published papers on this very complicated subject, but no stochastic modelling procedure have obtained general acceptance. The subject is discussed basis of a deterministic model. However, it is straightforward to modify this model to include uncertain parameters...

  10. Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Granita, E-mail: granitafc@gmail.com [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Dept. of Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Malaysia (Malaysia); UTM Center for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution.

  11. Stochastic differential equation model to Prendiville processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granita; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    The Prendiville process is another variation of the logistic model which assumes linearly decreasing population growth rate. It is a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) taking integer values in the finite interval. The continuous time Markov chain can be approximated by stochastic differential equation (SDE). This paper discusses the stochastic differential equation of Prendiville process. The work started with the forward Kolmogorov equation in continuous time Markov chain of Prendiville process. Then it was formulated in the form of a central-difference approximation. The approximation was then used in Fokker-Planck equation in relation to the stochastic differential equation of the Prendiville process. The explicit solution of the Prendiville process was obtained from the stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the mean and variance function of the Prendiville process could be easily found from the explicit solution

  12. Infinite-degree-corrected stochastic block model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    In stochastic block models, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman [Karrer and Newman...... corrected stochastic block model as a nonparametric Bayesian model, incorporating a parameter to control the amount of degree correction that can then be inferred from data. Additionally, our formulation yields principled ways of inferring the number of groups as well as predicting missing links...

  13. From complex to simple: interdisciplinary stochastic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazilu, D A; Zamora, G; Mazilu, I

    2012-01-01

    We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions for certain physical quantities, such as the time dependence of the length of the microtubules, and diffusion coefficients. The second one is a stochastic adsorption model with applications in surface deposition, epidemics and voter systems. We introduce the ‘empty interval method’ and show sample calculations for the time-dependent particle density. These models can serve as an introduction to the field of non-equilibrium statistical physics, and can also be used as a pedagogical tool to exemplify standard statistical physics concepts, such as random walks or the kinetic approach of the master equation. (paper)

  14. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipton, Alex [Merrill Lynch, Mlfc Main, 2 King Edward Street, London EC1A 1HQ (United Kingdom); Sepp, Artur [Merrill Lynch, 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080 (United States)], E-mail: Alex_Lipton@ml.com, E-mail: Artur_Sepp@ml.com

    2008-08-29

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  15. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-08-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

  16. Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

    2008-01-01

    We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics

  17. Stochastic Modeling Of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    reliable components are needed for wind turbine. In this paper focus is on reliability of critical components in drivetrain such as bearings and shafts. High failure rates of these components imply a need for more reliable components. To estimate the reliability of these components, stochastic models...... are needed for initial defects and damage accumulation. In this paper, stochastic models are formulated considering some of the failure modes observed in these components. The models are based on theoretical considerations, manufacturing uncertainties, size effects of different scales. It is illustrated how...

  18. Weather Derivatives and Stochastic Modelling of Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Espen Benth

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a continuous-time autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics with volatility being the product of a seasonal function and a stochastic process. We use the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for the stochastic volatility. The proposed temperature dynamics is flexible enough to model temperature data accurately, and at the same time being analytically tractable. Futures prices for commonly traded contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on indices like cooling- and heating-degree days and cumulative average temperatures are computed, as well as option prices on them.

  19. Modelling landscape-level numerical responses of predators to prey: the case of cats and rabbits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennyffer Cruz

    Full Text Available Predator-prey systems can extend over large geographical areas but empirical modelling of predator-prey dynamics has been largely limited to localised scales. This is due partly to difficulties in estimating predator and prey abundances over large areas. Collection of data at suitably large scales has been a major problem in previous studies of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus and their predators. This applies in Western Europe, where conserving rabbits and predators such as Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus is important, and in other parts of the world where rabbits are an invasive species supporting populations of introduced, and sometimes native, predators. In pastoral regions of New Zealand, rabbits are the primary prey of feral cats (Felis catus that threaten native fauna. We estimate the seasonal numerical response of cats to fluctuations in rabbit numbers in grassland-shrubland habitat across the Otago and Mackenzie regions of the South Island of New Zealand. We use spotlight counts over 1645 km of transects to estimate rabbit and cat abundances with a novel modelling approach that accounts simultaneously for environmental stochasticity, density dependence and varying detection probability. Our model suggests that cat abundance is related consistently to rabbit abundance in spring and summer, possibly through increased rabbit numbers improving the fecundity and juvenile survival of cats. Maintaining rabbits at low abundance should therefore suppress cat numbers, relieving predation pressure on native prey. Our approach provided estimates of the abundance of cats and rabbits over a large geographical area. This was made possible by repeated sampling within each season, which allows estimation of detection probabilities. A similar approach could be applied to predator-prey systems elsewhere, and could be adapted to any method of direct observation in which there is no double-counting of individuals. Reliable estimates of numerical

  20. Stochastic Modelling Of The Repairable System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzejczak Karol

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available All reliability models consisting of random time factors form stochastic processes. In this paper we recall the definitions of the most common point processes which are used for modelling of repairable systems. Particularly this paper presents stochastic processes as examples of reliability systems for the support of the maintenance related decisions. We consider the simplest one-unit system with a negligible repair or replacement time, i.e., the unit is operating and is repaired or replaced at failure, where the time required for repair and replacement is negligible. When the repair or replacement is completed, the unit becomes as good as new and resumes operation. The stochastic modelling of recoverable systems constitutes an excellent method of supporting maintenance related decision-making processes and enables their more rational use.

  1. Compositional Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strubbe, S.N.

    2005-01-01

    In this thesis we present a modelling framework for compositional modelling of stochastic hybrid systems. Hybrid systems consist of a combination of continuous and discrete dynamics. The state space of a hybrid system is hybrid in the sense that it consists of a continuous component and a discrete

  2. Some recent developments in stochastic volatility modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Nicolato, Elisa; Shephard, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews and puts in context some of our recent work on stochastic volatility (SV) modelling for financial economics. Here our main focus is on: (i) the relationship between subordination and SV, (ii) OU based volatility models, (iii) exact option pricing, (iv) realized power variation...

  3. Stochastic models for turbulent reacting flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerstein, A. [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1993-12-01

    The goal of this program is to develop and apply stochastic models of various processes occurring within turbulent reacting flows in order to identify the fundamental mechanisms governing these flows, to support experimental studies of these flows, and to further the development of comprehensive turbulent reacting flow models.

  4. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...

  5. A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Waema Mbogo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

  6. Modeling stochasticity in biochemical reaction networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantino, P H; Vlysidis, M; Smadbeck, P; Kaznessis, Y N

    2016-01-01

    Small biomolecular systems are inherently stochastic. Indeed, fluctuations of molecular species are substantial in living organisms and may result in significant variation in cellular phenotypes. The chemical master equation (CME) is the most detailed mathematical model that can describe stochastic behaviors. However, because of its complexity the CME has been solved for only few, very small reaction networks. As a result, the contribution of CME-based approaches to biology has been very limited. In this review we discuss the approach of solving CME by a set of differential equations of probability moments, called moment equations. We present different approaches to produce and to solve these equations, emphasizing the use of factorial moments and the zero information entropy closure scheme. We also provide information on the stability analysis of stochastic systems. Finally, we speculate on the utility of CME-based modeling formalisms, especially in the context of synthetic biology efforts. (topical review)

  7. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Environmental and Toxicological Sciences Research Group, Chiba (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  8. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  9. Stochastic resonance in models of neuronal ensembles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chialvo, D.R.; Longtin, A.; Mueller-Gerkin, J.

    1997-01-01

    Two recently suggested mechanisms for the neuronal encoding of sensory information involving the effect of stochastic resonance with aperiodic time-varying inputs are considered. It is shown, using theoretical arguments and numerical simulations, that the nonmonotonic behavior with increasing noise of the correlation measures used for the so-called aperiodic stochastic resonance (ASR) scenario does not rely on the cooperative effect typical of stochastic resonance in bistable and excitable systems. Rather, ASR with slowly varying signals is more properly interpreted as linearization by noise. Consequently, the broadening of the open-quotes resonance curveclose quotes in the multineuron stochastic resonance without tuning scenario can also be explained by this linearization. Computation of the input-output correlation as a function of both signal frequency and noise for the model system further reveals conditions where noise-induced firing with aperiodic inputs will benefit from stochastic resonance rather than linearization by noise. Thus, our study clarifies the tuning requirements for the optimal transduction of subthreshold aperiodic signals. It also shows that a single deterministic neuron can perform as well as a network when biased into a suprathreshold regime. Finally, we show that the inclusion of a refractory period in the spike-detection scheme produces a better correlation between instantaneous firing rate and input signal. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  10. Stochastic linear programming models, theory, and computation

    CERN Document Server

    Kall, Peter

    2011-01-01

    This new edition of Stochastic Linear Programming: Models, Theory and Computation has been brought completely up to date, either dealing with or at least referring to new material on models and methods, including DEA with stochastic outputs modeled via constraints on special risk functions (generalizing chance constraints, ICC’s and CVaR constraints), material on Sharpe-ratio, and Asset Liability Management models involving CVaR in a multi-stage setup. To facilitate use as a text, exercises are included throughout the book, and web access is provided to a student version of the authors’ SLP-IOR software. Additionally, the authors have updated the Guide to Available Software, and they have included newer algorithms and modeling systems for SLP. The book is thus suitable as a text for advanced courses in stochastic optimization, and as a reference to the field. From Reviews of the First Edition: "The book presents a comprehensive study of stochastic linear optimization problems and their applications. … T...

  11. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  12. Modeling animal movements using stochastic differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

    2004-01-01

    We describe the use of bivariate stochastic differential equations (SDE) for modeling movements of 216 radiocollared female Rocky Mountain elk at the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range in northeastern Oregon. Spatially and temporally explicit vector fields were estimated using approximating difference equations and nonparametric regression techniques. Estimated...

  13. Stochastic Load Models and Footbridge Response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Pedestrians may cause vibrations in footbridges and these vibrations may potentially be annoying. This calls for predictions of footbridge vibration levels and the paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians assuming walking parameters such as step frequency, pedes...

  14. Stochastic Growth Models with No Discounting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 88-98 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic dynamics * stochastic version of the Ramsey growth model * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  15. Stochastic forward and inverse groundwater flow and solute transport modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, G.M.C.M.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: calibration, inverse modeling, stochastic modeling, nonlinear biodegradation, stochastic-convective, advective-dispersive, travel time, network design, non-Gaussian distribution, multimodal distribution, representers

    This thesis offers three new approaches that contribute

  16. Stochastic models in reliability and maintenance

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main­ tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which cla...

  17. News Impact Curve for Stochastic Volatility Models

    OpenAIRE

    Makoto Takahashi; Yasuhiro Omori; Toshiaki Watanabe

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new method to compute the news impact curve for stochastic volatility (SV) models. The new method incorporates the joint movement of return and volatility, which has been ignored by the extant literature, by simply adding a couple of steps to the Bayesian MCMC estimation procedures for SV models. This simple procedure is versatile and applicable to various SV type models. Contrary to the monotonic news impact functions in the extant literature, the new method gives a U-s...

  18. Putting prey and predator into the CO2 equation--qualitative and quantitative effects of ocean acidification on predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Maud C O; McCormick, Mark I; Munday, Philip L; Meekan, Mark G; Dixson, Danielle L; Lonnstedt, Öona; Chivers, Douglas P

    2011-11-01

    Little is known about the impact of ocean acidification on predator-prey dynamics. Herein, we examined the effect of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) on both prey and predator by letting one predatory reef fish interact for 24 h with eight small or large juvenile damselfishes from four congeneric species. Both prey and predator were exposed to control or elevated levels of CO(2). Mortality rate and predator selectivity were compared across CO(2) treatments, prey size and species. Small juveniles of all species sustained greater mortality at high CO(2) levels, while large recruits were not affected. For large prey, the pattern of prey selectivity by predators was reversed under elevated CO(2). Our results demonstrate both quantitative and qualitative consumptive effects of CO(2) on small and larger damselfish recruits respectively, resulting from CO(2)-induced behavioural changes likely mediated by impaired neurological function. This study highlights the complexity of predicting the effects of climate change on coral reef ecosystems. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  20. Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

  1. Stochastic model of radioiodine transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, G.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1980-01-01

    A research project has been underway at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory with the objective to evaluate dose assessment models and to determine the uncertainty associated with the model predictions. This has resulted in the application of methods to propagate uncertainties through models. Some techniques and results related to this problem are discussed

  2. Stochastic Spectral Descent for Discrete Graphical Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, David; Hsieh, Ya-Ping; Collins, Edo; Carin, Lawrence; Cevher, Volkan

    2015-01-01

    Interest in deep probabilistic graphical models has in-creased in recent years, due to their state-of-the-art performance on many machine learning applications. Such models are typically trained with the stochastic gradient method, which can take a significant number of iterations to converge. Since the computational cost of gradient estimation is prohibitive even for modestly sized models, training becomes slow and practically usable models are kept small. In this paper we propose a new, largely tuning-free algorithm to address this problem. Our approach derives novel majorization bounds based on the Schatten- norm. Intriguingly, the minimizers of these bounds can be interpreted as gradient methods in a non-Euclidean space. We thus propose using a stochastic gradient method in non-Euclidean space. We both provide simple conditions under which our algorithm is guaranteed to converge, and demonstrate empirically that our algorithm leads to dramatically faster training and improved predictive ability compared to stochastic gradient descent for both directed and undirected graphical models.

  3. Brain-inspired Stochastic Models and Implementations

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Shedivat, Maruan

    2015-05-12

    One of the approaches to building artificial intelligence (AI) is to decipher the princi- ples of the brain function and to employ similar mechanisms for solving cognitive tasks, such as visual perception or natural language understanding, using machines. The recent breakthrough, named deep learning, demonstrated that large multi-layer networks of arti- ficial neural-like computing units attain remarkable performance on some of these tasks. Nevertheless, such artificial networks remain to be very loosely inspired by the brain, which rich structures and mechanisms may further suggest new algorithms or even new paradigms of computation. In this thesis, we explore brain-inspired probabilistic mechanisms, such as neural and synaptic stochasticity, in the context of generative models. The two questions we ask here are: (i) what kind of models can describe a neural learning system built of stochastic components? and (ii) how can we implement such systems e ̆ciently? To give specific answers, we consider two well known models and the corresponding neural architectures: the Naive Bayes model implemented with a winner-take-all spiking neural network and the Boltzmann machine implemented in a spiking or non-spiking fashion. We propose and analyze an e ̆cient neuromorphic implementation of the stochastic neu- ral firing mechanism and study the e ̄ects of synaptic unreliability on learning generative energy-based models implemented with neural networks.

  4. Stochastic Modelling of Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2001-01-01

    is that the model structure has to be adequate for practical applications, such as system simulation, fault detection and diagnosis, and design of control strategies. This also reflects on the methods used for identification of the component models. The main result from this research is the identification......In this thesis dynamic models of typical components in Danish heating systems are considered. Emphasis is made on describing and evaluating mathematical methods for identification of such models, and on presentation of component models for practical applications. The thesis consists of seven...... research papers (case studies) together with a summary report. Each case study takes it's starting point in typical heating system components and both, the applied mathematical modelling methods and the application aspects, are considered. The summary report gives an introduction to the scope...

  5. Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Kenta; Takayasu, Hideki; Ito, Takatoshi; Takayasu, Misako

    2009-05-01

    We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.

  6. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  7. Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization Theory, Models and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Shuming

    2012-01-01

    Covering in detail both theoretical and practical perspectives, this book is a self-contained and systematic depiction of current fuzzy stochastic optimization that deploys the fuzzy random variable as a core mathematical tool to model the integrated fuzzy random uncertainty. It proceeds in an orderly fashion from the requisite theoretical aspects of the fuzzy random variable to fuzzy stochastic optimization models and their real-life case studies.   The volume reflects the fact that randomness and fuzziness (or vagueness) are two major sources of uncertainty in the real world, with significant implications in a number of settings. In industrial engineering, management and economics, the chances are high that decision makers will be confronted with information that is simultaneously probabilistically uncertain and fuzzily imprecise, and optimization in the form of a decision must be made in an environment that is doubly uncertain, characterized by a co-occurrence of randomness and fuzziness. This book begins...

  8. Stochastic models for time series

    CERN Document Server

    Doukhan, Paul

    2018-01-01

    This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...

  9. A stochastic model for quantum measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budiyono, Agung

    2013-01-01

    We develop a statistical model of microscopic stochastic deviation from classical mechanics based on a stochastic process with a transition probability that is assumed to be given by an exponential distribution of infinitesimal stationary action. We apply the statistical model to stochastically modify a classical mechanical model for the measurement of physical quantities reproducing the prediction of quantum mechanics. The system+apparatus always has a definite configuration at all times, as in classical mechanics, fluctuating randomly following a continuous trajectory. On the other hand, the wavefunction and quantum mechanical Hermitian operator corresponding to the physical quantity arise formally as artificial mathematical constructs. During a single measurement, the wavefunction of the whole system+apparatus evolves according to a Schrödinger equation and the configuration of the apparatus acts as the pointer of the measurement so that there is no wavefunction collapse. We will also show that while the outcome of each single measurement event does not reveal the actual value of the physical quantity prior to measurement, its average in an ensemble of identical measurements is equal to the average of the actual value of the physical quantity prior to measurement over the distribution of the configuration of the system. (paper)

  10. Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Gordon

    2018-01-01

    The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

  11. A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leda D. Minkova

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.

  12. Hidden Symmetries of Stochastic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boyka Aneva

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available In the matrix product states approach to $n$ species diffusion processes the stationary probability distribution is expressed as a matrix product state with respect to a quadratic algebra determined by the dynamics of the process. The quadratic algebra defines a noncommutative space with a $SU_q(n$ quantum group action as its symmetry. Boundary processes amount to the appearance of parameter dependent linear terms in the algebraic relations and lead to a reduction of the $SU_q(n$ symmetry. We argue that the boundary operators of the asymmetric simple exclusion process generate a tridiagonal algebra whose irriducible representations are expressed in terms of the Askey-Wilson polynomials. The Askey-Wilson algebra arises as a symmetry of the boundary problem and allows to solve the model exactly.

  13. A potential predator-prey interaction of an American badger and an Agassiz's desert tortoise with a review of badger predation on turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Amanda L.; Puffer, Shellie R.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Tennant, Laura A.; Arundel, Terry; Vamstad, Michael S.; Brundige, Kathleen D.

    2016-01-01

    The federally threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) was listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1990, but thus far, recovery efforts have been unsuccessful (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 2015). Predation has been identified as a contributing factor to declining G. agassizii populations range-wide (e.g., Esque et al. 2010, Lovich et al. 2014). Understanding and managing for predator-prey dynamics is thus an important part of the recovery and conservation of this threatened species (USFWS 2011). Desert tortoises have a host of predators at all stages of their life cycle. Over 20 species of birds, mammals, and reptiles have been recorded as known or suspected predators (Woodbury and Hardy 1948, Luckenbach 1982, Ernst and Lovich 2009). American badgers (Taxidea taxus, family: Mustelidae) are confirmed excavators of desert tortoise nests (Turner and Berry 1984). They are also suspected predators of adult desert tortoises, a possibility which has been presented in some studies but without empirical verification (Luckenbach 1982, Turner and Berry 1984). Active mostly at night, badgers are solitary, secretive predators (Lindzey 1978, 1982; Armitage 2004) that are extremely difficult to observe in predatory encounters. Recently, strong circumstantial evidence presented by Emblidge et al. (2015) suggests that badgers do prey on adult Agassiz’s desert tortoises based on observations of more than two dozen dead tortoises in the Western Mojave Desert of California. In this note, we present another case of potential badger predation on a large adult desert tortoise in the Sonoran Desert of California. Collectively, these recent two cases potentially indicate that badger predation may be more common and widespread than previously thought. In addition, we review the worldwide literature of badger predation on turtles in general and summarize reported badger observations in Joshua Tree National Park, where our observation occurred, over a

  14. Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Siano, Pierluigi; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic optimization algorithm that aims to minimize the expectation of the system power losses by controlling wind turbine (WT) power factors. This objective of the optimization is subject to the probability constraints of bus voltage and line current requirements....... The optimization algorithm utilizes the stochastic models of wind power generation (WPG) and load demand to take into account their stochastic variation. The stochastic model of WPG is developed on the basis of a limited autoregressive integrated moving average (LARIMA) model by introducing a crosscorrelation...... structure to the LARIMA model. The proposed stochastic optimization is carried out on a 69-bus distribution system. Simulation results confirm that, under various combinations of WPG and load demand, the system power losses are considerably reduced with the optimal setting of WT power factor as compared...

  15. Modeling stochastic frontier based on vine copulas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantino, Michel; Candido, Osvaldo; Tabak, Benjamin M.; da Costa, Reginaldo Brito

    2017-11-01

    This article models a production function and analyzes the technical efficiency of listed companies in the United States, Germany and England between 2005 and 2012 based on the vine copula approach. Traditional estimates of the stochastic frontier assume that data is multivariate normally distributed and there is no source of asymmetry. The proposed method based on vine copulas allow us to explore different types of asymmetry and multivariate distribution. Using data on product, capital and labor, we measure the relative efficiency of the vine production function and estimate the coefficient used in the stochastic frontier literature for comparison purposes. This production vine copula predicts the value added by firms with given capital and labor in a probabilistic way. It thereby stands in sharp contrast to the production function, where the output of firms is completely deterministic. The results show that, on average, S&P500 companies are more efficient than companies listed in England and Germany, which presented similar average efficiency coefficients. For comparative purposes, the traditional stochastic frontier was estimated and the results showed discrepancies between the coefficients obtained by the application of the two methods, traditional and frontier-vine, opening new paths of non-linear research.

  16. Modelling Evolutionary Algorithms with Stochastic Differential Equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heredia, Jorge Pérez

    2017-11-20

    There has been renewed interest in modelling the behaviour of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) by more traditional mathematical objects, such as ordinary differential equations or Markov chains. The advantage is that the analysis becomes greatly facilitated due to the existence of well established methods. However, this typically comes at the cost of disregarding information about the process. Here, we introduce the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for the study of EAs. SDEs can produce simple analytical results for the dynamics of stochastic processes, unlike Markov chains which can produce rigorous but unwieldy expressions about the dynamics. On the other hand, unlike ordinary differential equations (ODEs), they do not discard information about the stochasticity of the process. We show that these are especially suitable for the analysis of fixed budget scenarios and present analogues of the additive and multiplicative drift theorems from runtime analysis. In addition, we derive a new more general multiplicative drift theorem that also covers non-elitist EAs. This theorem simultaneously allows for positive and negative results, providing information on the algorithm's progress even when the problem cannot be optimised efficiently. Finally, we provide results for some well-known heuristics namely Random Walk (RW), Random Local Search (RLS), the (1+1) EA, the Metropolis Algorithm (MA), and the Strong Selection Weak Mutation (SSWM) algorithm.

  17. Models of the stochastic activity of neurones

    CERN Document Server

    Holden, Arun Vivian

    1976-01-01

    These notes have grown from a series of seminars given at Leeds between 1972 and 1975. They represent an attempt to gather together the different kinds of model which have been proposed to account for the stochastic activity of neurones, and to provide an introduction to this area of mathematical biology. A striking feature of the electrical activity of the nervous system is that it appears stochastic: this is apparent at all levels of recording, ranging from intracellular recordings to the electroencephalogram. The chapters start with fluctuations in membrane potential, proceed through single unit and synaptic activity and end with the behaviour of large aggregates of neurones: L have chgaen this seque~~e\\/~~';uggest that the interesting behaviourr~f :the nervous system - its individuality, variability and dynamic forms - may in part result from the stochastic behaviour of its components. I would like to thank Dr. Julio Rubio for reading and commenting on the drafts, Mrs. Doris Beighton for producing the fin...

  18. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  19. Mathematical models of information and stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kornreich, Philipp

    2008-01-01

    From ancient soothsayers and astrologists to today's pollsters and economists, probability theory has long been used to predict the future on the basis of past and present knowledge. Mathematical Models of Information and Stochastic Systems shows that the amount of knowledge about a system plays an important role in the mathematical models used to foretell the future of the system. It explains how this known quantity of information is used to derive a system's probabilistic properties. After an introduction, the book presents several basic principles that are employed in the remainder of the t

  20. Stochastic model of energetic nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bojko, R.V.; Ryazanov, V.V.

    2002-01-01

    Behaviour of nuclear reactor was treated using the theory of branching processes. As mathematical model descriptive the neutron number in time the Markov occasional process is proposed. Application of branching occasional processes with variable regime to the description of neutron behaviour in the reactor makes possible conducting strong description of critical operation regime and demonstrates the severity of the process. Three regimes of the critical behaviour depending on the sign of manipulated variables and feedbacks were discovered. Probability regularities peculiar to the behaviour of the reactor are embodied to the suggested stochastic model [ru

  1. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  2. Modelling conjugation with stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Philipsen, Kirsten Riber; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Hasman, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Enterococcus faecium strains in a rich exhaustible media. The model contains a new expression for a substrate dependent conjugation rate. A maximum likelihood based method is used to estimate the model parameters. Different models including different noise structure for the system and observations are compared......Conjugation is an important mechanism involved in the transfer of resistance between bacteria. In this article a stochastic differential equation based model consisting of a continuous time state equation and a discrete time measurement equation is introduced to model growth and conjugation of two...... using a likelihood-ratio test and Akaike's information criterion. Experiments indicating conjugation on the agar plates selecting for transconjugants motivates the introduction of an extended model, for which conjugation on the agar plate is described in the measurement equation. This model is compared...

  3. Exploring dynamical complexity in diffusion driven predator-prey systems: Effect of toxin producing phytoplankton and spatial heterogeneities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Kumari, Nitu; Rai, Vikas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, dynamical complexities in two reaction-diffusion (RD) model systems are explored. A spatial heterogeneity in the form of linear spatial gradient in the reproductive growth rate of the phytoplankton is incorporated in both the model systems. Extra mortality of the zooplankton due to toxin production by the phytoplankton is included in the second reaction diffusion model system. Effect of toxin production and spatial heterogeneity in the model systems are studied. Toxin production does not seem to have an appreciable effect on the asymptotic dynamics of the model systems. On the other hand, spatial heterogeneity does influence the dynamics. In particular, it increases the frequency of occurrence of chaos as evident from two dimensional parameter scans. Both these model systems display short term recurrent chaos [Rai V. Chaos in natural populations: edge or wedge? Ecol Complex 2004;1: 127-38] as they reside on 'edges of chaos' (EOC) [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. This suggests that the ecological systems have a tendency to evolve to EOC. The study corroborates the inferences drawn from an earlier study by Rai and Upadhyay [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. The system's dynamics is largely unpredictable and admits bursts of short-term predictability.

  4. Stochastic Model Checking of the Stochastic Quality Calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Zeng, Kebin

    2015-01-01

    The Quality Calculus uses quality binders for input to express strategies for continuing the computation even when the desired input has not been received. The Stochastic Quality Calculus adds generally distributed delays for output actions and real-time constraints on the quality binders for input....... This gives rise to Generalised Semi-Markov Decision Processes for which few analytical techniques are available. We restrict delays on output actions to be exponentially distributed while still admitting real-time constraints on the quality binders. This facilitates developing analytical techniques based...

  5. Modelling the stochastic behaviour of primary nucleation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco

    2015-01-01

    We study the stochastic nature of primary nucleation and how it manifests itself in a crystallisation process at different scales and under different operating conditions. Such characteristics of nucleation are evident in many experiments where detection times of crystals are not identical, despite identical experimental conditions, but instead are distributed around an average value. While abundant experimental evidence has been reported in the literature, a clear theoretical understanding and an appropriate modelling of this feature is still missing. In this contribution, we present two models describing a batch cooling crystallisation, where the interplay between stochastic nucleation and deterministic crystal growth is described differently in each. The nucleation and growth rates of the two models are estimated by a comprehensive set of measurements of paracetamol crystallisation from aqueous solution in a 1 mL vessel [Kadam et al., Chemical Engineering Science, 2012, 72, 10-19]. Both models are applied to the cooling crystallisation process above under different operating conditions, i.e. different volumes, initial concentrations, cooling rates. The advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches are illustrated and discussed, with particular reference to their use across scales of nucleation rate measured in very small crystallisers.

  6. Predators, Prey and Habitat Structure: Can Key Conservation Areas and Early Signs of Population Collapse Be Detected in Neotropical Forests?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benoit de Thoisy

    Full Text Available Tropical forests with a low human population and absence of large-scale deforestation provide unique opportunities to study successful conservation strategies, which should be based on adequate monitoring tools. This study explored the conservation status of a large predator, the jaguar, considered an indicator of the maintenance of how well ecological processes are maintained. We implemented an original integrative approach, exploring successive ecosystem status proxies, from habitats and responses to threats of predators and their prey, to canopy structure and forest biomass. Niche modeling allowed identification of more suitable habitats, significantly related to canopy height and forest biomass. Capture/recapture methods showed that jaguar density was higher in habitats identified as more suitable by the niche model. Surveys of ungulates, large rodents and birds also showed higher density where jaguars were more abundant. Although jaguar density does not allow early detection of overall vertebrate community collapse, a decrease in the abundance of large terrestrial birds was noted as good first evidence of disturbance. The most promising tool comes from easily acquired LiDAR data and radar images: a decrease in canopy roughness was closely associated with the disturbance of forests and associated decreasing vertebrate biomass. This mixed approach, focusing on an apex predator, ecological modeling and remote-sensing information, not only helps detect early population declines in large mammals, but is also useful to discuss the relevance of large predators as indicators and the efficiency of conservation measures. It can also be easily extrapolated and adapted in a timely manner, since important open-source data are increasingly available and relevant for large-scale and real-time monitoring of biodiversity.

  7. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specifi cation search

    OpenAIRE

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    2010-01-01

    We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and deterministic trends. In particular, we formulate autoregressive models with stochastic trends components and decide on whether a specific feature of the series, i.e. the underlying level and/or the rate...

  8. Scalable inference for stochastic block models

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin

    2017-12-08

    Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of "big data," traditional inference algorithms for such a model are increasingly limited due to their high time complexity and poor scalability. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage maximum likelihood approach to recover the latent parameters of the stochastic block model, in time linear with respect to the number of edges. We also propose a parallel algorithm based on message passing. Our algorithm can overlap communication and computation, providing speedup without compromising accuracy as the number of processors grows. For example, to process a real-world graph with about 1.3 million nodes and 10 million edges, our algorithm requires about 6 seconds on 64 cores of a contemporary commodity Linux cluster. Experiments demonstrate that the algorithm can produce high quality results on both benchmark and real-world graphs. An example of finding more meaningful communities is illustrated consequently in comparison with a popular modularity maximization algorithm.

  9. Intimate Partner Violence: A Stochastic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidi, Elisa; Meringolo, Patrizia; Guazzini, Andrea; Bagnoli, Franco

    2017-01-01

    Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been a well-studied problem in the past psychological literature, especially through its classical methodology such as qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods. This article introduces two basic stochastic models as an alternative approach to simulate the short and long-term dynamics of a couple at risk of IPV. In both models, the members of the couple may assume a finite number of states, updating them in a probabilistic way at discrete time steps. After defining the transition probabilities, we first analyze the evolution of the couple in isolation and then we consider the case in which the individuals modify their behavior depending on the perceived violence from other couples in their environment or based on the perceived informal social support. While high perceived violence in other couples may converge toward the own presence of IPV by means a gender-specific transmission, the gender differences fade-out in the case of received informal social support. Despite the simplicity of the two stochastic models, they generate results which compare well with past experimental studies about IPV and they give important practical implications for prevention intervention in this field. Copyright: © 2016 by Fabrizio Serra editore, Pisa · Roma.

  10. Stochastic Model of TCP SYN Attacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Ramanauskaitė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A great proportion of essential services are moving into internet space making the threat of DoS attacks even more actual. To estimate the real risk of some kind of denial of service (DoS attack in real world is difficult, but mathematical and software models make this task easier. In this paper we overview the ways of implementing DoS attack models and offer a stochastic model of SYN flooding attack. It allows evaluating the potential threat of SYN flooding attacks, taking into account both the legitimate system flow as well as the possible attack power. At the same time we can assess the effect of such parameters as buffer capacity, open connection storage in the buffer or filte­ring efficiency on the success of different SYN flooding attacks. This model can be used for other type of memory depletion denial of service attacks.Article in Lithuanian

  11. Stochastic approaches to inflation model building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, Erandy; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2005-01-01

    While inflation gives an appealing explanation of observed cosmological data, there are a wide range of different inflation models, providing differing predictions for the initial perturbations. Typically models are motivated either by fundamental physics considerations or by simplicity. An alternative is to generate large numbers of models via a random generation process, such as the flow equations approach. The flow equations approach is known to predict a definite structure to the observational predictions. In this paper, we first demonstrate a more efficient implementation of the flow equations exploiting an analytic solution found by Liddle (2003). We then consider alternative stochastic methods of generating large numbers of inflation models, with the aim of testing whether the structures generated by the flow equations are robust. We find that while typically there remains some concentration of points in the observable plane under the different methods, there is significant variation in the predictions amongst the methods considered

  12. Ecological opportunity and predator-prey interactions: linking eco-evolutionary processes and diversification in adaptive radiations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontarp, Mikael; Petchey, Owen L

    2018-03-14

    Much of life's diversity has arisen through ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations, but the mechanistic underpinning of such diversification is not fully understood. Competition and predation can affect adaptive radiations, but contrasting theoretical and empirical results show that they can both promote and interrupt diversification. A mechanistic understanding of the link between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns is thus needed, especially in trophic communities. Here, we use a trait-based eco-evolutionary model to investigate the mechanisms linking competition, predation and adaptive radiations. By combining available micro-evolutionary theory and simulations of adaptive radiations we show that intraspecific competition is crucial for diversification as it induces disruptive selection, in particular in early phases of radiation. The diversification rate is however decreased in later phases owing to interspecific competition as niche availability, and population sizes are decreased. We provide new insight into how predation tends to have a negative effect on prey diversification through decreased population sizes, decreased disruptive selection and through the exclusion of prey from parts of niche space. The seemingly disparate effects of competition and predation on adaptive radiations, listed in the literature, may thus be acting and interacting in the same adaptive radiation at different relative strength as the radiation progresses. © 2018 The Authors.

  13. Probability of detecting marine predator-prey and species interactions using novel hybrid acoustic transmitter-receiver tags.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie L Baker

    Full Text Available Understanding the nature of inter-specific and conspecific interactions in the ocean is challenging because direct observation is usually impossible. The development of dual transmitter/receivers, Vemco Mobile Transceivers (VMT, and satellite-linked (e.g. GPS tags provides a unique opportunity to better understand between and within species interactions in space and time. Quantifying the uncertainty associated with detecting a tagged animal, particularly under varying field conditions, is vital for making accurate biological inferences when using VMTs. We evaluated the detection efficiency of VMTs deployed on grey seals, Halichoerus grypus, off Sable Island (NS, Canada in relation to environmental characteristics and seal behaviour using generalized linear models (GLM to explore both post-processed detection data and summarized raw VMT data. When considering only post-processed detection data, only about half of expected detections were recorded at best even when two VMT-tagged seals were estimated to be within 50-200 m of one another. At a separation of 400 m, only about 15% of expected detections were recorded. In contrast, when incomplete transmissions from the summarized raw data were also considered, the ratio of complete transmission to complete and incomplete transmissions was about 70% for distances ranging from 50-1000 m, with a minimum of around 40% at 600 m and a maximum of about 85% at 50 m. Distance between seals, wind stress, and depth were the most important predictors of detection efficiency. Access to the raw VMT data allowed us to focus on the physical and environmental factors that limit a transceiver's ability to resolve a transmitter's identity.

  14. Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Koekebakker, Steen

    2008-01-01

    We discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We propose to use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the instantaneous-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing instantaneous-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods. To overcome this problem, a practical modeling approach is analyzed. The market is supposed only to consist of non-overlapping swaps, and these are modelled directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research. (author)

  15. Stochastic modeling of thermal fatigue crack growth

    CERN Document Server

    Radu, Vasile

    2015-01-01

    The book describes a systematic stochastic modeling approach for assessing thermal-fatigue crack-growth in mixing tees, based on the power spectral density of temperature fluctuation at the inner pipe surface. It shows the development of a frequency-temperature response function in the framework of single-input, single-output (SISO) methodology from random noise/signal theory under sinusoidal input. The frequency response of stress intensity factor (SIF) is obtained by a polynomial fitting procedure of thermal stress profiles at various instants of time. The method, which takes into account the variability of material properties, and has been implemented in a real-world application, estimates the probabilities of failure by considering a limit state function and Monte Carlo analysis, which are based on the proposed stochastic model. Written in a comprehensive and accessible style, this book presents a new and effective method for assessing thermal fatigue crack, and it is intended as a concise and practice-or...

  16. Hopf bifurcation of the stochastic model on business cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, J; Wang, H; Ge, G

    2008-01-01

    A stochastic model on business cycle was presented in thas paper. Simplifying the model through the quasi Hamiltonian theory, the Ito diffusion process was obtained. According to Oseledec multiplicative ergodic theory and singular boundary theory, the conditions of local and global stability were acquired. Solving the stationary FPK equation and analyzing the stationary probability density, the stochastic Hopf bifurcation was explained. The result indicated that the change of parameter awas the key factor to the appearance of the stochastic Hopf bifurcation

  17. Double diffusivity model under stochastic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Amit K.; Aifantis, Elias C.

    2017-05-01

    The "double diffusivity" model was proposed in the late 1970s, and reworked in the early 1980s, as a continuum counterpart to existing discrete models of diffusion corresponding to high diffusivity paths, such as grain boundaries and dislocation lines. It was later rejuvenated in the 1990s to interpret experimental results on diffusion in polycrystalline and nanocrystalline specimens where grain boundaries and triple grain boundary junctions act as high diffusivity paths. Technically, the model pans out as a system of coupled Fick-type diffusion equations to represent "regular" and "high" diffusivity paths with "source terms" accounting for the mass exchange between the two paths. The model remit was extended by analogy to describe flow in porous media with double porosity, as well as to model heat conduction in media with two nonequilibrium local temperature baths, e.g., ion and electron baths. Uncoupling of the two partial differential equations leads to a higher-ordered diffusion equation, solutions of which could be obtained in terms of classical diffusion equation solutions. Similar equations could also be derived within an "internal length" gradient (ILG) mechanics formulation applied to diffusion problems, i.e., by introducing nonlocal effects, together with inertia and viscosity, in a mechanics based formulation of diffusion theory. While being remarkably successful in studies related to various aspects of transport in inhomogeneous media with deterministic microstructures and nanostructures, its implications in the presence of stochasticity have not yet been considered. This issue becomes particularly important in the case of diffusion in nanopolycrystals whose deterministic ILG-based theoretical calculations predict a relaxation time that is only about one-tenth of the actual experimentally verified time scale. This article provides the "missing link" in this estimation by adding a vital element in the ILG structure, that of stochasticity, that takes into

  18. Structure Learning in Stochastic Non-linear Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, R. D.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Luchinsky, D. G.

    2005-12-01

    A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x˙ = f(x) + ξ(t), where f(x) is the potential function for the system, and ξ(t) is the driving noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications, for example in predator-prey systems, where the very structure of the coupling between predator-prey pairs can have great ecological significance.

  19. Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Wei; Xu Wei; Zhao Junfeng; Jin Yanfei

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of the work of Goodwin and Puu, a new business cycle model subject to a stochastically parametric excitation is derived in this paper. At first, we reduce the model to a one-dimensional diffusion process by applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi-nonintegrable Hamiltonian system. Secondly, we utilize the methods of Lyapunov exponent and boundary classification associated with diffusion process respectively to analyze the stochastic stability of the trivial solution of system. The numerical results obtained illustrate that the trivial solution of system must be globally stable if it is locally stable in the state space. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic Hopf bifurcation of the business cycle model according to the qualitative changes in stationary probability density of system response. It is concluded that the stochastic Hopf bifurcation occurs at two critical parametric values. Finally, some explanations are given in a simply way on the potential applications of stochastic stability and bifurcation analysis

  20. Stochastic inverse problems: Models and metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabbagh, Elias H.; Sabbagh, Harold A.; Murphy, R. Kim; Aldrin, John C.; Annis, Charles; Knopp, Jeremy S.

    2015-01-01

    In past work, we introduced model-based inverse methods, and applied them to problems in which the anomaly could be reasonably modeled by simple canonical shapes, such as rectangular solids. In these cases the parameters to be inverted would be length, width and height, as well as the occasional probe lift-off or rotation. We are now developing a formulation that allows more flexibility in modeling complex flaws. The idea consists of expanding the flaw in a sequence of basis functions, and then solving for the expansion coefficients of this sequence, which are modeled as independent random variables, uniformly distributed over their range of values. There are a number of applications of such modeling: 1. Connected cracks and multiple half-moons, which we have noted in a POD set. Ideally we would like to distinguish connected cracks from one long shallow crack. 2. Cracks of irregular profile and shape which have appeared in cold work holes during bolt-hole eddy-current inspection. One side of such cracks is much deeper than other. 3. L or C shaped crack profiles at the surface, examples of which have been seen in bolt-hole cracks. By formulating problems in a stochastic sense, we are able to leverage the stochastic global optimization algorithms in NLSE, which is resident in VIC-3D®, to answer questions of global minimization and to compute confidence bounds using the sensitivity coefficient that we get from NLSE. We will also address the issue of surrogate functions which are used during the inversion process, and how they contribute to the quality of the estimation of the bounds

  1. Stochastic inverse problems: Models and metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbagh, Elias H.; Sabbagh, Harold A.; Murphy, R. Kim; Aldrin, John C.; Annis, Charles; Knopp, Jeremy S.

    2015-03-01

    In past work, we introduced model-based inverse methods, and applied them to problems in which the anomaly could be reasonably modeled by simple canonical shapes, such as rectangular solids. In these cases the parameters to be inverted would be length, width and height, as well as the occasional probe lift-off or rotation. We are now developing a formulation that allows more flexibility in modeling complex flaws. The idea consists of expanding the flaw in a sequence of basis functions, and then solving for the expansion coefficients of this sequence, which are modeled as independent random variables, uniformly distributed over their range of values. There are a number of applications of such modeling: 1. Connected cracks and multiple half-moons, which we have noted in a POD set. Ideally we would like to distinguish connected cracks from one long shallow crack. 2. Cracks of irregular profile and shape which have appeared in cold work holes during bolt-hole eddy-current inspection. One side of such cracks is much deeper than other. 3. L or C shaped crack profiles at the surface, examples of which have been seen in bolt-hole cracks. By formulating problems in a stochastic sense, we are able to leverage the stochastic global optimization algorithms in NLSE, which is resident in VIC-3D®, to answer questions of global minimization and to compute confidence bounds using the sensitivity coefficient that we get from NLSE. We will also address the issue of surrogate functions which are used during the inversion process, and how they contribute to the quality of the estimation of the bounds.

  2. Stochastic models for surface diffusion of molecules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shea, Patrick, E-mail: patrick.shea@dal.ca; Kreuzer, Hans Jürgen [Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 3J5 (Canada)

    2014-07-28

    We derive a stochastic model for the surface diffusion of molecules, starting from the classical equations of motion for an N-atom molecule on a surface. The equation of motion becomes a generalized Langevin equation for the center of mass of the molecule, with a non-Markovian friction kernel. In the Markov approximation, a standard Langevin equation is recovered, and the effect of the molecular vibrations on the diffusion is seen to lead to an increase in the friction for center of mass motion. This effective friction has a simple form that depends on the curvature of the lowest energy diffusion path in the 3N-dimensional coordinate space. We also find that so long as the intramolecular forces are sufficiently strong, memory effects are usually not significant and the Markov approximation can be employed, resulting in a simple one-dimensional model that can account for the effect of the dynamics of the molecular vibrations on the diffusive motion.

  3. Can Household Benefit from Stochastic Programming Models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani; Madsen, Claus A.; Poulsen, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    The Danish mortgage market is large and sophisticated. However, most Danish mortgage banks advise private home-owners based on simple, if sensible, rules of thumb. In recent years a number of papers (from Nielsen and Poulsen in J Econ Dyn Control 28:1267–1289, 2004 over Rasmussen and Zenios in J...... Risk 10:1–18, 2007 to Pedersen et al. in Ann Oper Res, 2013) have suggested a model-based, stochastic programming approach to mortgage choice. This paper gives an empirical comparison of performance over the period 2000–2010 of the rules of thumb to the model-based strategies. While the rules of thumb.......3–0.9 %-points (depending on the borrower’s level of conservatism) compared to the rules of thumb without increasing the risk. The answer to the question in the title is thus affirmative....

  4. An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernández, Juan Antonio; Benito, Rosa Marı´a; Losada, Juan Carlos

    2012-01-01

    An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations.

  5. Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhotra, N K

    1983-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

  6. A stochastic modeling of recurrent measles epidemic | Kassem ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A simple stochastic mathematical model is developed and investigated for the dynamics of measles epidemic. The model, which is a multi-dimensional diffusion process, includes susceptible individuals, latent (exposed), infected and removed individuals. Stochastic effects are assumed to arise in the process of infection of ...

  7. Review of "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bullinger Eric

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract "Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology" by Darren Wilkinson introduces the peculiarities of stochastic modelling in biology. This book is particularly suited to as a textbook or for self-study, and for readers with a theoretical background.

  8. Approximate models for broken clouds in stochastic radiative transfer theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doicu, Adrian; Efremenko, Dmitry S.; Loyola, Diego; Trautmann, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents approximate models in stochastic radiative transfer theory. The independent column approximation and its modified version with a solar source computed in a full three-dimensional atmosphere are formulated in a stochastic framework and for arbitrary cloud statistics. The nth-order stochastic models describing the independent column approximations are equivalent to the nth-order stochastic models for the original radiance fields in which the gradient vectors are neglected. Fast approximate models are further derived on the basis of zeroth-order stochastic models and the independent column approximation. The so-called “internal mixing” models assume a combination of the optical properties of the cloud and the clear sky, while the “external mixing” models assume a combination of the radiances corresponding to completely overcast and clear skies. A consistent treatment of internal and external mixing models is provided, and a new parameterization of the closure coefficient in the effective thickness approximation is given. An efficient computation of the closure coefficient for internal mixing models, using a previously derived vector stochastic model as a reference, is also presented. Equipped with appropriate look-up tables for the closure coefficient, these models can easily be integrated into operational trace gas retrieval systems that exploit absorption features in the near-IR solar spectrum. - Highlights: • Independent column approximation in a stochastic setting. • Fast internal and external mixing models for total and diffuse radiances. • Efficient optimization of internal mixing models to match reference models

  9. Interplanetary Alfvenic fluctuations: A stochastic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, A.

    1981-01-01

    The strong alignment of the average directions of minimum magnetic variance and mean magnetic field in interplanetary Alfvenic fluctuations is inconsistent with the usual wave-propagation models. We investigate the concept of minimum variance for nonplanar Alfvenic fluctuations in which the field direction varies stochastically. It is found that the tendency of the minimum variance and mean field directions to be aligned may be purely a consequence of the randomness of the field direction. In particular, a well-defined direction of minimum variance does not imply that the fluctuations are necessarily planar. The fluctuation power spectrum is a power law for frequencies much higher than the inverse of the correlation time. The probability distribution of directions a randomly fluctuating field of constant magnitude is calculated. A new approach for observational studies of interplanetary fluctuations is suggested

  10. Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syversveen, Anne Randi

    1997-12-31

    The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.

  11. 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

  12. Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz [Department of Nonlinear Modeling, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 2, 182 07 Prague 8 (Czech Republic); Paulescu, Marius [Physics Department, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara (Romania); Badescu, Viorel [Candida Oancea Institute, Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Spl. Independentei 313, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

    2013-11-13

    In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

  13. Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

  14. Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

  15. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits

  16. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor and UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

  17. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  18. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits

  19. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  20. Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation for tidal models

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, M.U.

    2011-05-12

    The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed proper orthogonal decompositionbased calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used to estimate large number of parameters.

  1. Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation for tidal models

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, M.U.; Heemink, A.W.; Verlaan, M.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed proper orthogonal decompositionbased calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used to estimate large number of parameters.

  2. A stochastic model for early placental development.

    KAUST Repository

    Cotter, Simon L

    2014-08-01

    In the human, placental structure is closely related to placental function and consequent pregnancy outcome. Studies have noted abnormal placental shape in small-for-gestational-age infants which extends to increased lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease. The origins and determinants of placental shape are incompletely understood and are difficult to study in vivo. In this paper, we model the early development of the human placenta, based on the hypothesis that this is driven by a chemoattractant effect emanating from proximal spiral arteries in the decidua. We derive and explore a two-dimensional stochastic model, and investigate the effects of loss of spiral arteries in regions near to the cord insertion on the shape of the placenta. This model demonstrates that disruption of spiral arteries can exert profound effects on placental shape, particularly if this is close to the cord insertion. Thus, placental shape reflects the underlying maternal vascular bed. Abnormal placental shape may reflect an abnormal uterine environment, predisposing to pregnancy complications. Through statistical analysis of model placentas, we are able to characterize the probability that a given placenta grew in a disrupted environment, and even able to distinguish between different disruptions.

  3. Stochastic model of the spinning electron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simaciu, I.; Borsos, Z.

    2002-01-01

    In Stochastic Electrodynamics (SED) it is demonstrated that electrostatic interaction is the result of the scattering of the Classical Zero-Point Field (CZPF) background by the charged particles. In such models, the electron is modelled as a two-dimensional oscillator, which interacts with the electric component of the CZPF background. The electron with spin is not only an electric monopole but also a magnetic dipole. The interaction of the spin electron with the CZPF background is not only electric but also magnetic. We calculate the scattering cross-section of magnetic dipole in the situation when a magnetic field, variable in time B arrow = B 0 arrow sin ωt, acts over the rigid magnetic dipole given by the symmetry of the model. The cross-section of a magnetic dipole σ m must be equal to the cross-section of an electric monopole σ e . This equality between σ m and σ e cross-sections is motivated, too, by the fact that, in the model of the two-dimensional oscillator, the electric charge q e has the motion speed c. (authors)

  4. Stochastic modelling of two-phase flows including phase change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurisse, O.; Minier, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic modelling has already been developed and applied for single-phase flows and incompressible two-phase flows. In this article, we propose an extension of this modelling approach to two-phase flows including phase change (e.g. for steam-water flows). Two aspects are emphasised: a stochastic model accounting for phase transition and a modelling constraint which arises from volume conservation. To illustrate the whole approach, some remarks are eventually proposed for two-fluid models. (authors)

  5. Survival Analysis of a Nonautonomous Logistic Model with Stochastic Perturbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Lu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking white noise into account, a stochastic nonautonomous logistic model is proposed and investigated. Sufficient conditions for extinction, nonpersistence in the mean, weak persistence, stochastic permanence, and global asymptotic stability are established. Moreover, the threshold between weak persistence and extinction is obtained. Finally, we introduce some numerical simulink graphics to illustrate our main results.

  6. On the small-time behavior of stochastic logistic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dung Tien Nguyen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the small-time behaviors of the solution to  a stochastic logistic model. The obtained results allow us to estimate the number of individuals in the population and can be used to study stochastic prey-predator systems.

  7. Analysis and reconstruction of stochastic coupled map lattice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coca, Daniel; Billings, Stephen A.

    2003-01-01

    The Letter introduces a general stochastic coupled lattice map model together with an algorithm to estimate the nodal equations involved based only on a small set of observable variables and in the presence of stochastic perturbations. More general forms of the Frobenius-Perron and the transfer operators, which describe the evolution of densities under the action of the CML transformation, are derived

  8. A Size-based Ecosystem Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

     Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... the predator--prey interaction, (ii) mass balance in the predator--prey allocation, and (iii) mortality and somatic growth as a consequence of the predator--prey allocation. By incorporating additional assumptions, the model can be extended to other dimensions of the ecosystem, for example, space or species...

  9. A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media

  10. Stochastic modeling of virus capsid assembly pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Russell

    2009-03-01

    Virus capsids have become a key model system for understanding self-assembly due to their high complexity, robust and efficient assembly processes, and experimental tractability. Our ability to directly examine and manipulate capsid assembly kinetics in detail nonetheless remains limited, creating a need for computer models that can infer experimentally inaccessible features of the assembly process and explore the effects of hypothetical manipulations on assembly trajectories. We have developed novel algorithms for stochastic simulation of capsid assembly [1,2] that allow us to model capsid assembly over broad parameter spaces [3]. We apply these methods to study the nature of assembly pathway control in virus capsids as well as their sensitivity to assembly conditions and possible experimental interventions. [4pt] [1] F. Jamalyaria, R. Rohlfs, and R. Schwartz. J Comp Phys 204, 100 (2005). [0pt] [2] N. Misra and R. Schwartz. J Chem Phys 129, in press (2008). [0pt] [3] B. Sweeney, T. Zhang, and R. Schwartz. Biophys J 94, 772 (2008).

  11. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  12. A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Albert

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM, which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group

  13. A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Stefan; Schmack, Katharina; Sterzer, Philipp; Schneider, Gaby

    2017-11-01

    Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM), which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group differences to

  14. Stochastic modeling of wetland-groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertassello, Leonardo Enrico; Rao, P. Suresh C.; Park, Jeryang; Jawitz, James W.; Botter, Gianluca

    2018-02-01

    Modeling and data analyses were used in this study to examine the temporal hydrological variability in geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), as influenced by hydrologic connectivity to shallow groundwater, wetland bathymetry, and subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing. We examined the general case of GIWs coupled to shallow groundwater through exfiltration or infiltration across wetland bottom. We also examined limiting case with the wetland stage as the local expression of the shallow groundwater. We derive analytical expressions for the steady-state probability density functions (pdfs) for wetland water storage and stage using few, scaled, physically-based parameters. In addition, we analyze the hydrologic crossing time properties of wetland stage, and the dependence of the mean hydroperiod on climatic and wetland morphologic attributes. Our analyses show that it is crucial to account for shallow groundwater connectivity to fully understand the hydrologic dynamics in wetlands. The application of the model to two different case studies in Florida, jointly with a detailed sensitivity analysis, allowed us to identify the main drivers of hydrologic dynamics in GIWs under different climate and morphologic conditions.

  15. Reversibility in Quantum Models of Stochastic Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gier, David; Crutchfield, James; Mahoney, John; James, Ryan

    Natural phenomena such as time series of neural firing, orientation of layers in crystal stacking and successive measurements in spin-systems are inherently probabilistic. The provably minimal classical models of such stochastic processes are ɛ-machines, which consist of internal states, transition probabilities between states and output values. The topological properties of the ɛ-machine for a given process characterize the structure, memory and patterns of that process. However ɛ-machines are often not ideal because their statistical complexity (Cμ) is demonstrably greater than the excess entropy (E) of the processes they represent. Quantum models (q-machines) of the same processes can do better in that their statistical complexity (Cq) obeys the relation Cμ >= Cq >= E. q-machines can be constructed to consider longer lengths of strings, resulting in greater compression. With code-words of sufficiently long length, the statistical complexity becomes time-symmetric - a feature apparently novel to this quantum representation. This result has ramifications for compression of classical information in quantum computing and quantum communication technology.

  16. Uncertainty modelling of atmospheric dispersion by stochastic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    by stochastic response surface method under aleatory ... 3Health Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 400 085, India e-mail: ...... Brandimarte P 2011 Quantitative methods: An introduction for business management.

  17. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  18. Stochastic differential equations as a tool to regularize the parameter estimation problem for continuous time dynamical systems given discrete time measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leander, Jacob; Lundh, Torbjörn; Jirstrand, Mats

    2014-05-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of estimating parameters in ordinary differential equations given discrete time experimental data. The impact of going from an ordinary to a stochastic differential equation setting is investigated as a tool to overcome the problem of local minima in the objective function. Using two different models, it is demonstrated that by allowing noise in the underlying model itself, the objective functions to be minimized in the parameter estimation procedures are regularized in the sense that the number of local minima is reduced and better convergence is achieved. The advantage of using stochastic differential equations is that the actual states in the model are predicted from data and this will allow the prediction to stay close to data even when the parameters in the model is incorrect. The extended Kalman filter is used as a state estimator and sensitivity equations are provided to give an accurate calculation of the gradient of the objective function. The method is illustrated using in silico data from the FitzHugh-Nagumo model for excitable media and the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system. The proposed method performs well on the models considered, and is able to regularize the objective function in both models. This leads to parameter estimation problems with fewer local minima which can be solved by efficient gradient-based methods. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

  20. Model selection for integrated pest management with stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akman, Olcay; Comar, Timothy D; Hrozencik, Daniel

    2018-04-07

    In Song and Xiang (2006), an integrated pest management model with periodically varying climatic conditions was introduced. In order to address a wider range of environmental effects, the authors here have embarked upon a series of studies resulting in a more flexible modeling approach. In Akman et al. (2013), the impact of randomly changing environmental conditions is examined by incorporating stochasticity into the birth pulse of the prey species. In Akman et al. (2014), the authors introduce a class of models via a mixture of two birth-pulse terms and determined conditions for the global and local asymptotic stability of the pest eradication solution. With this work, the authors unify the stochastic and mixture model components to create further flexibility in modeling the impacts of random environmental changes on an integrated pest management system. In particular, we first determine the conditions under which solutions of our deterministic mixture model are permanent. We then analyze the stochastic model to find the optimal value of the mixing parameter that minimizes the variance in the efficacy of the pesticide. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to show that the corresponding pesticide efficacy determined by this optimization technique is indeed robust. Through numerical simulations we show that permanence can be preserved in our stochastic model. Our study of the stochastic version of the model indicates that our results on the deterministic model provide informative conclusions about the behavior of the stochastic model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Abhishek; Mohanram, Kartik; Di Cara, Alessandro; De Micheli, Giovanni; Xenarios, Ioannis

    2009-06-15

    Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

  2. On changes of measure in stochastic volatility models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2006-01-01

    models. This had led many researchers to “assume the condition away,” even though the condition is not innocuous, and nonsensical results can occur if it is in fact not satisfied. We provide an applicable theorem to check the conditions for a general class of Markovian stochastic volatility models. As an example we will also provide a detailed analysis of the Stein and Stein and Heston stochastic volatility models.

  3. Fitting PAC spectra with stochastic models: PolyPacFit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zacate, M. O., E-mail: zacatem1@nku.edu [Northern Kentucky University, Department of Physics and Geology (United States); Evenson, W. E. [Utah Valley University, College of Science and Health (United States); Newhouse, R.; Collins, G. S. [Washington State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy (United States)

    2010-04-15

    PolyPacFit is an advanced fitting program for time-differential perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectroscopy. It incorporates stochastic models and provides robust options for customization of fits. Notable features of the program include platform independence and support for (1) fits to stochastic models of hyperfine interactions, (2) user-defined constraints among model parameters, (3) fits to multiple spectra simultaneously, and (4) any spin nuclear probe.

  4. Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, G.J.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper specifies a multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) model for the S&P500 index and spot interest rate processes. We first estimate the multivariate SV model via the efficient method of moments (EMM) technique based on observations of underlying state variables, and then investigate the

  5. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valor

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.

  6. Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf

  7. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Power System with Renewable Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan

    Unlike traditional fossil-fuel based power generation, renewable generation such as wind power relies on uncontrollable prime sources such as wind speed. Wind speed varies stochastically, which to a large extent determines the stochastic behavior of power generation from wind farms...... that such a stochastic model can be used to simulate the effect of load management on the load duration curve. As CHP units are turned on and off by regulating power, CHP generation has discrete output and thus can be modeled by a transition matrix based discrete Markov chain. As the CHP generation has a strong diurnal...

  8. Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henshall, G.A.

    1991-10-01

    Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed

  9. Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Velázquez, J. C.; Hallen, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure ...

  10. Stochastic Modelling of Shiroro River Stream flow Process

    OpenAIRE

    Musa, J. J

    2013-01-01

    Economists, social scientists and engineers provide insights into the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the options for adaptation and mitigation, and yet other scientists, including geographers and biologists, study the impacts of climate change. This project concentrates mainly on the discharge from the Shiroro River. A stochastic approach is presented for modeling a time series by an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA). The development and use of a stochastic stream flow m...

  11. Stochastic higher spin six vertex model and Macdonald measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodin, Alexei

    2018-02-01

    We prove an identity that relates the q-Laplace transform of the height function of a (higher spin inhomogeneous) stochastic six vertex model in a quadrant on one side and a multiplicative functional of a Macdonald measure on the other. The identity is used to prove the GUE Tracy-Widom asymptotics for two instances of the stochastic six vertex model via asymptotic analysis of the corresponding Schur measures.

  12. Computational stochastic model of ions implantation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zmievskaya, Galina I., E-mail: zmi@gmail.ru; Bondareva, Anna L., E-mail: bal310775@yandex.ru [M.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics RAS, 4,Miusskaya sq., 125047 Moscow (Russian Federation); Levchenko, Tatiana V., E-mail: tatlevchenko@mail.ru [VNII Geosystem Russian Federal Center, Varshavskoye roadway, 8, Moscow (Russian Federation); Maino, Giuseppe, E-mail: giuseppe.maino@enea.it [Scuola di Lettere e BeniCulturali, University di Bologna, sede di Ravenna, via Mariani 5, 48100 Ravenna (Italy)

    2015-03-10

    Implantation flux ions into crystal leads to phase transition /PT/ 1-st kind. Damaging lattice is associated with processes clustering vacancies and gaseous bubbles as well their brownian motion. System of stochastic differential equations /SDEs/ Ito for evolution stochastic dynamical variables corresponds to the superposition Wiener processes. The kinetic equations in partial derivatives /KE/, Kolmogorov-Feller and Einstein-Smolukhovskii, were formulated for nucleation into lattice of weakly soluble gases. According theory, coefficients of stochastic and kinetic equations uniquely related. Radiation stimulated phase transition are characterized by kinetic distribution functions /DFs/ of implanted clusters versus their sizes and depth of gas penetration into lattice. Macroscopic parameters of kinetics such as the porosity and stress calculated in thin layers metal/dielectric due to Xe{sup ++} irradiation are attracted as example. Predictions of porosity, important for validation accumulation stresses in surfaces, can be applied at restoring of objects the cultural heritage.

  13. Composed particle model in stochastic electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunini, S.A.

    1985-01-01

    We analyse the statistical properties of the non-relativistic motion of a particle that has two constituents having finite nasses and charges. The main interaction is in contact with thermal and zero point radiation of Stochastic Electrodynamics. (M.W.O.) [pt

  14. Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS: software for stochastic modeling of biochemical networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elston Timothy C

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intrinsic fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of biochemical reactions can have large effects on the response of biochemical networks. This is particularly true for pathways that involve transcriptional regulation, where generally there are two copies of each gene and the number of messenger RNA (mRNA molecules can be small. Therefore, there is a need for computational tools for developing and investigating stochastic models of biochemical networks. Results We have developed the software package Biochemical Network Stochastic Simulator (BioNetS for efficientlyand accurately simulating stochastic models of biochemical networks. BioNetS has a graphical user interface that allows models to be entered in a straightforward manner, and allows the user to specify the type of random variable (discrete or continuous for each chemical species in the network. The discrete variables are simulated using an efficient implementation of the Gillespie algorithm. For the continuous random variables, BioNetS constructs and numerically solvesthe appropriate chemical Langevin equations. The software package has been developed to scale efficiently with network size, thereby allowing large systems to be studied. BioNetS runs as a BioSpice agent and can be downloaded from http://www.biospice.org. BioNetS also can be run as a stand alone package. All the required files are accessible from http://x.amath.unc.edu/BioNetS. Conclusions We have developed BioNetS to be a reliable tool for studying the stochastic dynamics of large biochemical networks. Important features of BioNetS are its ability to handle hybrid models that consist of both continuous and discrete random variables and its ability to model cell growth and division. We have verified the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical methods by considering several test systems.

  15. Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakatos, Eszter; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs

  16. Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakatos, Eszter, E-mail: e.lakatos13@imperial.ac.uk; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H., E-mail: m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, Centre for Integrative Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

    2015-09-07

    Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs.

  17. Stochastic bifurcation in a model of love with colored noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Xiaokui; Dai, Honghua; Yuan, Jianping

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we wish to examine the stochastic bifurcation induced by multiplicative Gaussian colored noise in a dynamical model of love where the random factor is used to describe the complexity and unpredictability of psychological systems. First, the dynamics in deterministic love-triangle model are considered briefly including equilibrium points and their stability, chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then, the influences of Gaussian colored noise with different parameters are explored such as the phase plots, top Lyapunov exponents, stationary probability density function (PDF) and stochastic bifurcation. The stochastic P-bifurcation through a qualitative change of the stationary PDF will be observed and bifurcation diagram on parameter plane of correlation time and noise intensity is presented to find the bifurcation behaviors in detail. Finally, the top Lyapunov exponent is computed to determine the D-bifurcation when the noise intensity achieves to a critical value. By comparison, we find there is no connection between two kinds of stochastic bifurcation.

  18. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems

  19. Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.

    2014-01-01

    The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

  20. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)

  1. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  2. Analysis of dynamic regimes in stochastically forced Kaldor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Ryashko, Lev

    2015-01-01

    We consider the business cycle Kaldor model forced by random noise. Detailed parametric analysis of deterministic system is carried out and zones of coexisting stable equilibrium and stable limit cycle are found. Noise-induced transitions between these attractors are studied using stochastic sensitivity function technique and confidence domains method. Critical values of noise intensity corresponding to noise-induced transitions “equilibrium → cycle” and “cycle → equilibrium” are estimated. Dominants in combined stochastic regimes are discussed.

  3. A stochastic analysis for a phytoplankton-zooplankton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge, G; Wang, H-L; Xu, J

    2008-01-01

    A simple phytoplankton-zooplankton nonlinear dynamical model was proposed to study the coexistence of all the species and a Hopf bifurcation was observed. In order to study the effect of environmental robustness on this system, we have stochastically perturbed the system with respect to white noise around its positive interior equilibrium. We have observed that the system remains stochastically stable around the positive equilibrium for same parametric values in the deterministic situation

  4. Analysis of stochastic effects in Kaldor-type business cycle discrete model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev; Sysolyatina, Anna

    2016-07-01

    We study nonlinear stochastic phenomena in the discrete Kaldor model of business cycles. A numerical parametric analysis of stochastically forced attractors (equilibria, closed invariant curves, discrete cycles) of this model is performed using the stochastic sensitivity functions technique. A spatial arrangement of random states in stochastic attractors is modeled by confidence domains. The phenomenon of noise-induced transitions ;chaos-order; is discussed.

  5. The multivariate supOU stochastic volatility model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Stelzer, Robert

    Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modelling long range dependence effects. The finiteness of moments and the second order...... structure of the volatility, the log returns, as well as their "squares" are discussed in detail. Moreover, we give several examples in which long memory effects occur and study how the model as well as the simple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type stochastic volatility model behave under linear transformations....... In particular, the models are shown to be preserved under invertible linear transformations. Finally, we discuss how (sup)OU stochastic volatility models can be combined with a factor modelling approach....

  6. Stochastic line motion and stochastic flux conservation for nonideal hydromagnetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyink, Gregory L.

    2009-01-01

    We prove that smooth solutions of nonideal (viscous and resistive) incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations satisfy a stochastic law of flux conservation. This property implies that the magnetic flux through a surface is equal to the average of the magnetic fluxes through an ensemble of surfaces advected backward in time by the plasma velocity perturbed with a random white noise. Our result is an analog of the well-known Alfven theorem of ideal MHD and is valid for any value of the magnetic Prandtl number. A second stochastic conservation law is shown to hold at unit Prandtl number, a random version of the generalized Kelvin theorem derived by Bekenstein and Oron for ideal MHD. These stochastic conservation laws are not only shown to be consequences of the nonideal MHD equations but are proved in fact to be equivalent to those equations. We derive similar results for two more refined hydromagnetic models, Hall MHD and the two-fluid plasma model, still assuming incompressible velocities and isotropic transport coefficients. Finally, we use these results to discuss briefly the infinite-Reynolds-number limit of hydromagnetic turbulence and to support the conjecture that flux conservation remains stochastic in that limit.

  7. A Discrete Numerical Scheme of Modified Leslie-Gower With Harvesting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riski Nur Istiqomah Dinnullah

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, exploitation of biological resources and the harvesting of two populations or more are widely practiced, such as fishery or foresty. The simplest way to describe the interaction of two species is by using predator prey model, that is one species feeds on another. The Leslie-Gower predator prey model has been studied in many works. In this paper, we use Euler method to discretisize the modified Leslie-Gower with harvesting model. The model consists of two simultanious predator prey equations. We show numerically that this discrete numerical scheme model is dynamically consistent with its continuous model only for relatively small step-size. By using computer simulation software, we show that equlibrium points can be stable, saddles, and unstable. It is shown that the numerical simulations not only illustrate the results, but also show the rich dynamics behaviors of the discrete system.

  8. Stochastic models to simulate paratuberculosis in dairy herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Weber, M.F.; Kudahl, Anne Margrethe Braad

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use...... the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution...

  9. Constraining Stochastic Parametrisation Schemes Using High-Resolution Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, H. M.; Dawson, A.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic parametrisations are used in weather and climate models as a physically motivated way to represent model error due to unresolved processes. Designing new stochastic schemes has been the target of much innovative research over the last decade. While a focus has been on developing physically motivated approaches, many successful stochastic parametrisation schemes are very simple, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) multiplicative scheme `Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies' (SPPT). The SPPT scheme improves the skill of probabilistic weather and seasonal forecasts, and so is widely used. However, little work has focused on assessing the physical basis of the SPPT scheme. We address this matter by using high-resolution model simulations to explicitly measure the `error' in the parametrised tendency that SPPT seeks to represent. The high resolution simulations are first coarse-grained to the desired forecast model resolution before they are used to produce initial conditions and forcing data needed to drive the ECMWF Single Column Model (SCM). By comparing SCM forecast tendencies with the evolution of the high resolution model, we can measure the `error' in the forecast tendencies. In this way, we provide justification for the multiplicative nature of SPPT, and for the temporal and spatial scales of the stochastic perturbations. However, we also identify issues with the SPPT scheme. It is therefore hoped these measurements will improve both holistic and process based approaches to stochastic parametrisation. Figure caption: Instantaneous snapshot of the optimal SPPT stochastic perturbation, derived by comparing high-resolution simulations with a low resolution forecast model.

  10. Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

    2018-03-01

    Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

  11. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information, then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicted due to a number of factors influencing the process and causing random demand changes. In this case, a supply system must function according to the complete information and with a certain degree of uncertainty. In cases when demand may be defined by some of the laws of the probability theory, we are talking about stochastic demand and a stochastic supply system. Demand can be described by mathematical expectation, mathematical expectation and standard deviation, probability distribution or as a random process. However, there is usually a need for the most complex description, i.e. the complex random process because both intensity of demand and the probability distribution change during the observed intervals. The level of temporal (dynamic series is traditionally considered as a complex phenomenon consisting of four components: - basic tendency of phenomenon development - cyclical impact (long-term, 'ancient' - seasonal effects - random fluctuations. The basic tendency of phenomenon development means a long-term evolution of phenomena. A function that expresses the trajectory of changes of the basic tendency of a phenomenon development in the form of the equation is called a trend. Often, the trend involves time regression; i.e. the coefficients of the proposed functions are often determined by the least squares method. To roughly determine the coefficients of the proposed function, the sum of three and three-point methods are also used. After checking the

  12. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  13. Dynamic stochastic accumulation model with application to pension savings management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melicherčik Igor

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a dynamic stochastic accumulation model for determining optimal decision between stock and bond investments during accumulation of pension savings. Stock prices are assumed to be driven by the geometric Brownian motion. Interest rates are modeled by means of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. The optimal decision as a solution to the corresponding dynamic stochastic program is a function of the duration of saving, the level of savings and the short rate. Qualitative and quantitative properties of the optimal solution are analyzed. The model is tested on the funded pillar of the Slovak pension system. The results are calculated for various risk preferences of a saver.

  14. Methods and models in mathematical biology deterministic and stochastic approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Johannes

    2015-01-01

    This book developed from classes in mathematical biology taught by the authors over several years at the Technische Universität München. The main themes are modeling principles, mathematical principles for the analysis of these models, and model-based analysis of data. The key topics of modern biomathematics are covered: ecology, epidemiology, biochemistry, regulatory networks, neuronal networks, and population genetics. A variety of mathematical methods are introduced, ranging from ordinary and partial differential equations to stochastic graph theory and  branching processes. A special emphasis is placed on the interplay between stochastic and deterministic models.

  15. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya

    2017-10-03

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  16. Stochastic description of heterogeneities of permeability within groundwater flow models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacas, M.C.; Lachassagne, P.; Ledoux, E.; Marsily, G. de

    1991-01-01

    In order to model radionuclide migration in the geosphere realistically at the field scale, the hydrogeologist needs to be able to simulate groundwater flow in heterogeneous media. Heterogeneity of the medium can be described using a stochastic approach, that affects the way in which a flow model is formulated. In this paper, we discuss the problems that we have encountered in modelling both continuous and fractured media. The stochastic approach leads to a methodology that enables local measurements of permeability to be integrated into a model which gives a good prediction of groundwater flow on a regional scale. 5 Figs.; 8 Refs

  17. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya; Kalligiannaki, Evangelia; Tempone, Raul

    2017-01-01

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  18. Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdick, Clark; Manchester, Joyce

    Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.

  19. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    We extend a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. In particular, we focus on autoregressive models with possibly time-varying intercept and slope and decide on ...

  20. Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, V G

    2011-01-01

    This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

  1. Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

    2017-12-01

    Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal

  2. Qualitative and Quantitative Integrated Modeling for Stochastic Simulation and Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The simulation and optimization of an actual physics system are usually constructed based on the stochastic models, which have both qualitative and quantitative characteristics inherently. Most modeling specifications and frameworks find it difficult to describe the qualitative model directly. In order to deal with the expert knowledge, uncertain reasoning, and other qualitative information, a qualitative and quantitative combined modeling specification was proposed based on a hierarchical model structure framework. The new modeling approach is based on a hierarchical model structure which includes the meta-meta model, the meta-model and the high-level model. A description logic system is defined for formal definition and verification of the new modeling specification. A stochastic defense simulation was developed to illustrate how to model the system and optimize the result. The result shows that the proposed method can describe the complex system more comprehensively, and the survival probability of the target is higher by introducing qualitative models into quantitative simulation.

  3. Distributed parallel computing in stochastic modeling of groundwater systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Yanhui; Li, Guomin; Xu, Haizhen

    2013-03-01

    Stochastic modeling is a rapidly evolving, popular approach to the study of the uncertainty and heterogeneity of groundwater systems. However, the use of Monte Carlo-type simulations to solve practical groundwater problems often encounters computational bottlenecks that hinder the acquisition of meaningful results. To improve the computational efficiency, a system that combines stochastic model generation with MODFLOW-related programs and distributed parallel processing is investigated. The distributed computing framework, called the Java Parallel Processing Framework, is integrated into the system to allow the batch processing of stochastic models in distributed and parallel systems. As an example, the system is applied to the stochastic delineation of well capture zones in the Pinggu Basin in Beijing. Through the use of 50 processing threads on a cluster with 10 multicore nodes, the execution times of 500 realizations are reduced to 3% compared with those of a serial execution. Through this application, the system demonstrates its potential in solving difficult computational problems in practical stochastic modeling. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.

  4. A stochastic model for intermittent search strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benichou, O; Coppey, M; Moreau, M; Suet, P H; Voituriez, R

    2005-01-01

    It is often necessary, in scientific or everyday life problems, to find a randomly hidden target. What is then the optimal strategy to reach it as rapidly as possible? In this article, we develop a stochastic theory for intermittent search behaviours, which are often observed: the searcher alternates phases of intensive search and slow motion with fast displacements. The first results of this theory have already been announced recently. Here we provide a detailed presentation of the theory, as well as the full derivation of the results. Furthermore, we explicitly discuss the minimization of the time needed to find the target

  5. Deterministic and stochastic models for middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryani, Dessy Rizki; Zevika, Mona; Nuraini, Nuning

    2018-03-01

    World Health Organization (WHO) data stated that since September 2012, there were 1,733 cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) with 628 death cases that occurred in 27 countries. MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and the largest cases of MERS outside Saudi Arabia occurred in South Korea in 2015. MERS is a disease that attacks the respiratory system caused by infection of MERS-CoV. MERS-CoV transmission occurs directly through direct contact between infected individual with non-infected individual or indirectly through contaminated object by the free virus. Suspected, MERS can spread quickly because of the free virus in environment. Mathematical modeling is used to illustrate the transmission of MERS disease using deterministic model and stochastic model. Deterministic model is used to investigate the temporal dynamic from the system to analyze the steady state condition. Stochastic model approach using Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is used to predict the future states by using random variables. From the models that were built, the threshold value for deterministic models and stochastic models obtained in the same form and the probability of disease extinction can be computed by stochastic model. Simulations for both models using several of different parameters are shown, and the probability of disease extinction will be compared with several initial conditions.

  6. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  7. Stochastic fractional differential equations: Modeling, method and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedjeu, Jean-C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

    2012-01-01

    By introducing a concept of dynamic process operating under multi-time scales in sciences and engineering, a mathematical model described by a system of multi-time scale stochastic differential equations is formulated. The classical Picard–Lindelöf successive approximations scheme is applied to the model validation problem, namely, existence and uniqueness of solution process. Naturally, this leads to the problem of finding closed form solutions of both linear and nonlinear multi-time scale stochastic differential equations of Itô–Doob type. Finally, to illustrate the scope of ideas and presented results, multi-time scale stochastic models for ecological and epidemiological processes in population dynamic are outlined.

  8. Stochastic processes analysis in nuclear reactor using ARMA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavaljevski, N.

    1990-01-01

    The analysis of ARMA model derived from general stochastic state equations of nuclear reactor is given. The dependence of ARMA model parameters on the main physical characteristics of RB nuclear reactor in Vinca is presented. Preliminary identification results are presented, observed discrepancies between theory and experiment are explained and the possibilities of identification improvement are anticipated. (author)

  9. Stochastic Modeling and Deterministic Limit of Catalytic Surface Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens; Reichert, Christian; Eiswirth, Markus

    2007-01-01

    of stochastic origin can be observed in experiments. The models include a new approach to the platinum phase transition, which allows for a unification of existing models for Pt(100) and Pt(110). The rich nonlinear dynamical behavior of the macroscopic reaction kinetics is investigated and shows good agreement...

  10. Powering stochastic reliability models by discrete event simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozine, Igor; Wang, Xiaoyun

    2012-01-01

    it difficult to find a solution to the problem. The power of modern computers and recent developments in discrete-event simulation (DES) software enable to diminish some of the drawbacks of stochastic models. In this paper we describe the insights we have gained based on using both Markov and DES models...

  11. Stochastic Modelling of the Diffusion Coefficient for Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    In the paper, a new stochastic modelling of the diffusion coefficient D is presented. The modelling is based on physical understanding of the diffusion process and on some recent experimental results. The diffusion coefficients D is strongly dependent on the w/c ratio and the temperature....

  12. Stochastic models for transport in a fluidized bed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dehling, H.G; Hoffmann, A.C; Stuut, H.W.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we study stochastic models for the transport of particles in a fluidized bed reactor and compute the associated residence time distribution (RTD). Our main model is basically a diffusion process in [0;A] with reflecting/absorbing boundary conditions, modified by allowing jumps to the

  13. Stochastic Robust Mathematical Programming Model for Power System Optimization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Cong; Changhyeok, Lee; Haoyong, Chen; Mehrotra, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic robust framework for two-stage power system optimization problems with uncertainty. The model optimizes the probabilistic expectation of different worst-case scenarios with ifferent uncertainty sets. A case study of unit commitment shows the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms.

  14. AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION OF A STOCHASTIC-LAGRANGIAN TRANSPORT MODEL (SLAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerical models are a useful tool in evaluating and designing NAPL remediation systems. Traditional constitutive finite difference and finite element models are complex and expensive to apply. For this reason, this paper presents the application of a simplified stochastic-Lagran...

  15. Reflected stochastic differential equation models for constrained animal movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Johnson, Devin S.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2017-01-01

    Movement for many animal species is constrained in space by barriers such as rivers, shorelines, or impassable cliffs. We develop an approach for modeling animal movement constrained in space by considering a class of constrained stochastic processes, reflected stochastic differential equations. Our approach generalizes existing methods for modeling unconstrained animal movement. We present methods for simulation and inference based on augmenting the constrained movement path with a latent unconstrained path and illustrate this augmentation with a simulation example and an analysis of telemetry data from a Steller sea lion (Eumatopias jubatus) in southeast Alaska.

  16. Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models by Nonparametric Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanaya, Shin; Kristensen, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    /estimated volatility process replacing the latent process. Our estimation strategy is applicable to both parametric and nonparametric stochastic volatility models, and can handle both jumps and market microstructure noise. The resulting estimators of the stochastic volatility model will carry additional biases...... and variances due to the first-step estimation, but under regularity conditions we show that these vanish asymptotically and our estimators inherit the asymptotic properties of the infeasible estimators based on observations of the volatility process. A simulation study examines the finite-sample properties...

  17. Multi-scenario modelling of uncertainty in stochastic chemical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. David; Ricardez-Sandoval, Luis A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis has not been well studied at the molecular scale, despite extensive knowledge of uncertainty in macroscale systems. The ability to predict the effect of uncertainty allows for robust control of small scale systems such as nanoreactors, surface reactions, and gene toggle switches. However, it is difficult to model uncertainty in such chemical systems as they are stochastic in nature, and require a large computational cost. To address this issue, a new model of uncertainty propagation in stochastic chemical systems, based on the Chemical Master Equation, is proposed in the present study. The uncertain solution is approximated by a composite state comprised of the averaged effect of samples from the uncertain parameter distributions. This model is then used to study the effect of uncertainty on an isomerization system and a two gene regulation network called a repressilator. The results of this model show that uncertainty in stochastic systems is dependent on both the uncertain distribution, and the system under investigation. -- Highlights: •A method to model uncertainty on stochastic systems was developed. •The method is based on the Chemical Master Equation. •Uncertainty in an isomerization reaction and a gene regulation network was modelled. •Effects were significant and dependent on the uncertain input and reaction system. •The model was computationally more efficient than Kinetic Monte Carlo

  18. A computer model of the biosphere, to estimate stochastic and non-stochastic effects of radionuclides on humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurens, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    A computer code was written to model food chains in order to estimate the internal and external doses, for stochastic and non-stochastic effects, on humans (adults and infants). Results are given for 67 radionuclides, for unit concentration in water (1 Bq/L) and in atmosphere (1 Bq/m 3 )

  19. Population stochastic modelling (PSM)-An R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode

    2009-01-01

    are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE1 approximation......The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model...... development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(l)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornoe, R.V Overgaard, H. Agerso, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8...

  20. Stochastic lattice model of synaptic membrane protein domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yiwei; Kahraman, Osman; Haselwandter, Christoph A

    2017-05-01

    Neurotransmitter receptor molecules, concentrated in synaptic membrane domains along with scaffolds and other kinds of proteins, are crucial for signal transmission across chemical synapses. In common with other membrane protein domains, synaptic domains are characterized by low protein copy numbers and protein crowding, with rapid stochastic turnover of individual molecules. We study here in detail a stochastic lattice model of the receptor-scaffold reaction-diffusion dynamics at synaptic domains that was found previously to capture, at the mean-field level, the self-assembly, stability, and characteristic size of synaptic domains observed in experiments. We show that our stochastic lattice model yields quantitative agreement with mean-field models of nonlinear diffusion in crowded membranes. Through a combination of analytic and numerical solutions of the master equation governing the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains, together with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, we find substantial discrepancies between mean-field and stochastic models for the reaction dynamics at synaptic domains. Based on the reaction and diffusion properties of synaptic receptors and scaffolds suggested by previous experiments and mean-field calculations, we show that the stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of synaptic receptors and scaffolds provide a simple physical mechanism for collective fluctuations in synaptic domains, the molecular turnover observed at synaptic domains, key features of the observed single-molecule trajectories, and spatial heterogeneity in the effective rates at which receptors and scaffolds are recycled at the cell membrane. Our work sheds light on the physical mechanisms and principles linking the collective properties of membrane protein domains to the stochastic dynamics that rule their molecular components.

  1. Stochastic Modeling of Radioactive Material Releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrus, Jason [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Nonreactor nuclear facilities operated under the approval authority of the U.S. Department of Energy use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge or exceed dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated design basis events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines or exceed the guidelines for members of the public or workers, merit selection of safety structures, systems, or components or other controls to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, has developed a portable and simple to use software application called SODA (Stochastic Objective Decision-Aide) that stochastically calculates the radiation dose associated with hypothetical radiological material release scenarios. Rather than producing a point estimate of the dose, SODA produces a dose distribution result to allow a deeper understanding of the dose potential. SODA allows users to select the distribution type and parameter values for all of the input variables used to perform the dose calculation. SODA then randomly samples each distribution input variable and calculates the overall resulting dose distribution. In cases where an input variable distribution is unknown, a traditional single point value can be used. SODA was developed using the MATLAB coding framework. The software application has a graphical user input. SODA can be installed on both Windows and Mac computers and does not require MATLAB to function. SODA provides improved risk understanding leading to better informed decision making associated with establishing nuclear facility material-at-risk limits and safety structure, system, or component selection. It is important to note that SODA does not replace or compete with codes such as MACCS or RSAC, rather it is viewed as an easy to use supplemental tool to help improve risk understanding and support better informed decisions. The work was

  2. Stochastic Modeling of Radioactive Material Releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrus, Jason; Pope, Chad

    2015-01-01

    Nonreactor nuclear facilities operated under the approval authority of the U.S. Department of Energy use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge or exceed dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated design basis events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines or exceed the guidelines for members of the public or workers, merit selection of safety structures, systems, or components or other controls to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, has developed a portable and simple to use software application called SODA (Stochastic Objective Decision-Aide) that stochastically calculates the radiation dose associated with hypothetical radiological material release scenarios. Rather than producing a point estimate of the dose, SODA produces a dose distribution result to allow a deeper understanding of the dose potential. SODA allows users to select the distribution type and parameter values for all of the input variables used to perform the dose calculation. SODA then randomly samples each distribution input variable and calculates the overall resulting dose distribution. In cases where an input variable distribution is unknown, a traditional single point value can be used. SODA was developed using the MATLAB coding framework. The software application has a graphical user input. SODA can be installed on both Windows and Mac computers and does not require MATLAB to function. SODA provides improved risk understanding leading to better informed decision making associated with establishing nuclear facility material-at-risk limits and safety structure, system, or component selection. It is important to note that SODA does not replace or compete with codes such as MACCS or RSAC, rather it is viewed as an easy to use supplemental tool to help improve risk understanding and support better informed decisions. The work was

  3. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic Chemostat Model with Two Nutrients and One Microorganism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new stochastic chemostat model with two substitutable nutrients and one microorganism is proposed and investigated. Firstly, for the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is obtained by analyzing the stability of the equilibria. Then, for the stochastic model, the threshold of the stochastic chemostat for extinction and permanence of the microorganism is explored. Difference of the threshold of the deterministic model and the stochastic model shows that a large stochastic disturbance can affect the persistence of the microorganism and is harmful to the cultivation of the microorganism. To illustrate this phenomenon, we give some computer simulations with different intensity of stochastic noise disturbance.

  4. Response spectrum analysis of a stochastic seismic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, Koji; Sakata, Masaru; Takemoto, Shinichiro.

    1990-01-01

    The stochastic response spectrum approach is presented for predicting the dynamic behavior of structures to earthquake excitation expressed by a random process, one of whose sample functions can be regarded as a recorded strong-motion earthquake accelerogram. The approach consists of modeling recorded ground motion by a random process and the root-mean-square response (rms) analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom system by using the moment equations method. The stochastic response spectrum is obtained as a plot of the maximum rms response versus the natural period of the system and is compared with the conventional response spectrum. (author)

  5. Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.

  6. The threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Bing; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong; Shi, Qihong; Li, Dungang

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present the threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease. Furthermore, we find that noise can suppress the disease outbreak. Numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  7. Stochasticity thresholds in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callegari, B.; Galgani, L.; Milan Univ.

    1979-01-01

    The authors consider the celebrated model of Fermi, Pasta and Ulam and give a numerical estimate for its thresholds of stochasticity, thus determining a critical energy as a function of the frequency of the corresponding oscillators. The results turn out to be qualitatively similar to those already obtained for a chain of particles with nearest-neighbour Lennard-Jones interaction potential. (author)

  8. A stochastic large deformation model for computational anatomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnaudon, Alexis; Holm, Darryl D.; Pai, Akshay Sadananda Uppinakudru

    2017-01-01

    In the study of shapes of human organs using computational anatomy, variations are found to arise from inter-subject anatomical differences, disease-specific effects, and measurement noise. This paper introduces a stochastic model for incorporating random variations into the Large Deformation...

  9. Stochasticity thresholds in the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callegari, B [Ferrara Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Matematica; Carotta, M C; Ferrario, C [Ferrara Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Lo Vecchio, G [Ferrara Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Gruppo Nazionale di Struttura della Materia, Ferrara (Italy)); Galgani, L [Milan Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Milan Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Matematica)

    1979-12-11

    The authors consider the celebrated model of Fermi, Pasta and Ulam and give a numerical estimate for its thresholds of stochasticity, thus determining a critical energy as a function of the frequency of the corresponding oscillators. The results turn out to be qualitatively similar to those already obtained for a chain of particles with nearest-neighbour Lennard-Jones interaction potential.

  10. Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-02

    The key is to develop online learning strategies at each individual node. Specifically, through local information exchange with its neighbors, each...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning...Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for

  11. Estimating and Forecasting Generalized Fractional Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Peiris (Shelton); M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractIn recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility

  12. CSL model checking of deterministic and stochastic Petri nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinez Verdugo, J.M.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; German, R.; Heindl, A.

    2006-01-01

    Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets (DSPNs) are a widely used high-level formalism for modeling discrete-event systems where events may occur either without consuming time, after a deterministic time, or after an exponentially distributed time. The underlying process dened by DSPNs, under

  13. Model tracking dual stochastic controller design under irregular internal noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jong Bok; Heo, Hoon; Cho, Yun Hyun; Ji, Tae Young

    2006-01-01

    Although many methods about the control of irregular external noise have been introduced and implemented, it is still necessary to design a controller that will be more effective and efficient methods to exclude for various noises. Accumulation of errors due to model tracking, internal noises (thermal noise, shot noise and l/f noise) that come from elements such as resistor, diode and transistor etc. in the circuit system and numerical errors due to digital process often destabilize the system and reduce the system performance. New stochastic controller is adopted to remove those noises using conventional controller simultaneously. Design method of a model tracking dual controller is proposed to improve the stability of system while removing external and internal noises. In the study, design process of the model tracking dual stochastic controller is introduced that improves system performance and guarantees robustness under irregular internal noises which can be created internally. The model tracking dual stochastic controller utilizing F-P-K stochastic control technique developed earlier is implemented to reveal its performance via simulation

  14. Hydrological modeling using a multi-site stochastic weather generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...

  15. Optimal Tax Reduction by Depreciation : A Stochastic Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, M.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Wielhouwer, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    This paper focuses on the choice of a depreciation method, when trying to minimize the expected value of the present value of future tax payments.In a quite general model that allows for stochastic future cash- ows and a tax structure with tax brackets, we determine the optimal choice between the

  16. A cavitation model based on Eulerian stochastic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magagnato, F.; Dumond, J.

    2013-12-01

    Non-linear phenomena can often be described using probability density functions (pdf) and pdf transport models. Traditionally the simulation of pdf transport requires Monte-Carlo codes based on Lagrangian "particles" or prescribed pdf assumptions including binning techniques. Recently, in the field of combustion, a novel formulation called the stochastic-field method solving pdf transport based on Eulerian fields has been proposed which eliminates the necessity to mix Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques or prescribed pdf assumptions. In the present work, for the first time the stochastic-field method is applied to multi-phase flow and in particular to cavitating flow. To validate the proposed stochastic-field cavitation model, two applications are considered. Firstly, sheet cavitation is simulated in a Venturi-type nozzle. The second application is an innovative fluidic diode which exhibits coolant flashing. Agreement with experimental results is obtained for both applications with a fixed set of model constants. The stochastic-field cavitation model captures the wide range of pdf shapes present at different locations.

  17. Stochastic models in risk theory and management accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brekelmans, R.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    This thesis deals with stochastic models in two fields: risk theory and management accounting. Firstly, two extensions of the classical risk process are analyzed. A method is developed that computes bounds of the probability of ruin for the classical risk rocess extended with a constant interest

  18. A stochastic model for forecast consumption in master scheduling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weeda, P.J.; Weeda, P.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a stochastic model for the reduction of the initial forecast in the Master Schedule (MS) of an MRP system during progress of time by the acceptance of customer orders. Results are given for the expectation and variance of the number of yet unknown deliveries as a function of

  19. Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

    This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

  20. Stochastic and simulation models of maritime intercept operations capabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Sato, Hiroyuki

    2005-01-01

    The research formulates and exercises stochastic and simulation models to assess the Maritime Intercept Operations (MIO) capabilities. The models focus on the surveillance operations of the Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). The analysis using the models estimates the probability with which a terrorist vessel (Red) is detected, correctly classified, and escorted for intensive investigation and neutralization before it leaves an area of interest (AOI). The difficulty of obtaining adequate int...

  1. Extinction threshold of a population in spatial and stochastic model

    OpenAIRE

    Soroka, Yevheniia; Rublyov, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, spatial stochastic and logistic model (SSLM) describing dynamics of a population of a certain species was analysed. The behaviour of the extinction threshold as a function of model parameters was studied. More specifically, we studied how the critical values for the model parameters that separate the cases of extinction and persistence depend on the spatial scales of the competition and dispersal kernels. We compared the simulations and analytical results to examine if and how ...

  2. Population stochastic modelling (PSM)--an R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-06-01

    The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.

  3. Assessment of agglomeration, co-sedimentation and trophic transfer of titanium dioxide nanoparticles in a laboratory-scale predator-prey model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Govind Sharan; Kumar, Ashutosh; Shanker, Rishi; Dhawan, Alok

    2016-08-01

    Nano titanium dioxide (nTiO2) is the most abundantly released engineered nanomaterial (ENM) in aquatic environments. Therefore, it is prudent to assess its fate and its effects on lower trophic-level organisms in the aquatic food chain. A predator-and-prey-based laboratory microcosm was established using Paramecium caudatum and Escherichia coli to evaluate the effects of nTiO2. The surface interaction of nTiO2 with E. coli significantly increased after the addition of Paramecium into the microcosm. This interaction favoured the hetero-agglomeration and co-sedimentation of nTiO2. The extent of nTiO2 agglomeration under experimental conditions was as follows: combined E. coli and Paramecium > Paramecium only > E. coli only > without E. coli or Paramecium. An increase in nTiO2 internalisation in Paramecium cells was also observed in the presence or absence of E. coli cells. These interactions and nTiO2 internalisation in Paramecium cells induced statistically significant (p < 0.05) effects on growth and the bacterial ingestion rate at 24 h. These findings provide new insights into the fate of nTiO2 in the presence of bacterial-ciliate interactions in the aquatic environment.

  4. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widen, H.; Walker, D.

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10 -4 m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10 5 yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study

  5. Application of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations to Reservoir Property Modelling

    KAUST Repository

    Potsepaev, R.

    2010-09-06

    Existing algorithms of geostatistics for stochastic modelling of reservoir parameters require a mapping (the \\'uvt-transform\\') into the parametric space and reconstruction of a stratigraphic co-ordinate system. The parametric space can be considered to represent a pre-deformed and pre-faulted depositional environment. Existing approximations of this mapping in many cases cause significant distortions to the correlation distances. In this work we propose a coordinate free approach for modelling stochastic textures through the application of stochastic partial differential equations. By avoiding the construction of a uvt-transform and stratigraphic coordinates, one can generate realizations directly in the physical space in the presence of deformations and faults. In particular the solution of the modified Helmholtz equation driven by Gaussian white noise is a zero mean Gaussian stationary random field with exponential correlation function (in 3-D). This equation can be used to generate realizations in parametric space. In order to sample in physical space we introduce a stochastic elliptic PDE with tensor coefficients, where the tensor is related to correlation anisotropy and its variation is physical space.

  6. Exercise effects in a virtual type 1 diabetes patient: Using stochastic differential equations for model extension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, S.; Nørgaard, K.

    2013-01-01

    extension incorporating exercise effects on insulin and glucose dynamics. Our model is constructed as a stochastic state space model consisting of a set of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In a stochastic state space model, the residual error is split into random measurement error...

  7. Predicting population extinction or disease outbreaks with stochastic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J. S. Allen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of exponential growth, logistic growth and epidemics are common applications in undergraduate differential equation courses. The corresponding stochastic models are not part of these courses, although when population sizes are small their behaviour is often more realistic and distinctly different from deterministic models. For example, the randomness associated with births and deaths may lead to population extinction even in an exponentially growing population. Some background in continuous-time Markov chains and applications to populations, epidemics and cancer are presented with a goal to introduce this topic into the undergraduate mathematics curriculum that will encourage further investigation into problems on conservation, infectious diseases and cancer therapy. MATLAB programs for graphing sample paths of stochastic models are provided in the Appendix.

  8. Quantitative Sociodynamics Stochastic Methods and Models of Social Interaction Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    This new edition of Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioral changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics and mathematics, but they have very often proven their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences as well. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (e.g. synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches, a fundamental dynamic model is obtained, which opens new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models a...

  9. Quantitative sociodynamics stochastic methods and models of social interaction processes

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    1995-01-01

    Quantitative Sociodynamics presents a general strategy for interdisciplinary model building and its application to a quantitative description of behavioural changes based on social interaction processes. Originally, the crucial methods for the modeling of complex systems (stochastic methods and nonlinear dynamics) were developed in physics but they have very often proved their explanatory power in chemistry, biology, economics and the social sciences. Quantitative Sociodynamics provides a unified and comprehensive overview of the different stochastic methods, their interrelations and properties. In addition, it introduces the most important concepts from nonlinear dynamics (synergetics, chaos theory). The applicability of these fascinating concepts to social phenomena is carefully discussed. By incorporating decision-theoretical approaches a very fundamental dynamic model is obtained which seems to open new perspectives in the social sciences. It includes many established models as special cases, e.g. the log...

  10. Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Kapur

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

  11. Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Robey, T.H.

    1994-01-01

    Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose a secondary set of deterministic geologic features on the overall stratigraphic framework provided by the indictor models

  12. STOCHASTIC MODELING OF INFLATION IN NIGERIA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2006-04-04

    Apr 4, 2006 ... In this paper, we adopt a time series approach in modeling inflation in ... KEYWORDS: Buys-Ballot table; Quadratic trend; Seasonal multiplicative model, ..... Basic Statistics for Business and Economics, 2nd ed, Irwin, USA.

  13. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  14. Stochastic programming framework for Lithuanian pension payout modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Kabašinskas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a scientific approach to the problem of selecting a pension fund by taking into account some specific characteristics of the Lithuanian Republic (LR pension accumulation system. The decision making model, which can be used to plan a long-term pension accrual of the Lithuanian Republic (LR citizens, in an optimal way is presented. This model focuses on factors that influence the sustainability of the pension system selection under macroeconomic, social and demographic uncertainty. The model is formalized as a single stage stochastic optimization problem where the long-term optimal strategy can be obtained based on the possible scenarios generated for a particular participant. Stochastic programming methods allow including the pension fund rebalancing moment and direction of investment, and taking into account possible changes of personal income, changes of society and the global financial market. The collection of methods used to generate scenario trees was found useful to solve strategic planning problems.

  15. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  16. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Matthew T; Lake, Douglas E; Randall Moorman, J; Delos, John B; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John

    2016-01-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm—stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events—may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge. (paper)

  17. A data driven nonlinear stochastic model for blood glucose dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Holt, Tim A; Khovanova, Natalia

    2016-03-01

    The development of adequate mathematical models for blood glucose dynamics may improve early diagnosis and control of diabetes mellitus (DM). We have developed a stochastic nonlinear second order differential equation to describe the response of blood glucose concentration to food intake using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. A variational Bayesian learning scheme was applied to define the number and values of the system's parameters by iterative optimisation of free energy. The model has the minimal order and number of parameters to successfully describe blood glucose dynamics in people with and without DM. The model accounts for the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the underlying glucose-insulin dynamic process. Being data-driven, it takes full advantage of available CGM data and, at the same time, reflects the intrinsic characteristics of the glucose-insulin system without detailed knowledge of the physiological mechanisms. We have shown that the dynamics of some postprandial blood glucose excursions can be described by a reduced (linear) model, previously seen in the literature. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates that deterministic system parameters belong to different ranges for diabetes and controls. Implications for clinical practice are discussed. This is the first study introducing a continuous data-driven nonlinear stochastic model capable of describing both DM and non-DM profiles. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  19. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2016-04-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

  20. Performance modeling, stochastic networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi R

    2013-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of introducing an appropriate mathematical framework for modeling and analysis as well as understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The models, techniques, and results presented form the core of traffic engineering methods used to design, control and allocate resources in communication networks.The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the importan

  1. Estimating and Forecasting Generalized Fractional Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton Peiris

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers a flexible class of time series models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV model. We examine the corresponding statistical properties of this model, discuss the spectral likelihood estimation and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We provide empirical evidence by applying the GLMSV model to three exchange rate return series and conjecture that the results of out-of-sample forecasts adequately confirm the use of GLMSV model in certain financial applications.

  2. Stochastic quantization of a topological quantum mechanical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antunes, Sergio; Krein, Gastao; Menezes, Gabriel; Svaiter, Nami Fux

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Stochastic quantization of complex actions has been extensively studied in the literature. In these models, a Markovian Langevin equation is used in order to study the quantization of such systems. In such papers, the advantages of the Markovian stochastic quantization method were explored and exposed. However, many drawbacks of the method were also pointed out, such as instability of the simulations with absence of convergence and sometimes convergence to the wrong limit. Indeed, although several alternative methods have been proposed to deal with interesting physical systems where the action is complex, these approaches do not suggest any general way of solving the particular difficulties that arise in each situation. Here, we wish to make contributions to the program of stochastic quantization of theories with imaginary action by investigating the consequences of a non-Markovian stochastic quantization in a particular situation, namely a quantum mechanical topological action. We analyze the Markovian stochastic quantization for a topological quantum mechanical action which is analog to a Maxwell-Chern-Simons action in the Weyl gauge. Afterwards we consider a Langevin equation with memory kernel and Einstein's relations with colored noise. We show that convergence towards equilibrium is achieved in both regimes. We also sketch a simple numerical analysis to investigate the possible advantages of non-Markovian procedure over the usual Markovian quantization. Both retarded Green's function for the diffusion problem are considered in such analysis. We show that, although the results indicated that the effect of memory kernel, as usually expected, is to delay the convergence to equilibrium, non-Markovian systems imply a faster decay compared to Markovian ones as well as smoother convergence to equilibrium. (author)

  3. Introduction to stochastic models in biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Susanne; Samson, Adeline

    2013-01-01

    This chapter is concerned with continuous time processes, which are often modeled as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These models assume that the observed dynamics are driven exclusively by internal, deterministic mechanisms. However, real biological systems will always be exp...

  4. Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Model Reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2011-01-01

    A new relative error model reduction technique for linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. Both continuous and discrete time systems can be reduced within this framework. The proposed model reduction method is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced truncation and a recently...

  5. Stochastic modelling in design of mechanical properties of nanometals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tengen, T.B.; Wejrzanowski, T.; Iwankiewicz, R.; Kurzydlowski, K.J.

    2010-01-01

    Polycrystalline nanometals are being fabricated through different processing routes and conditions. The consequence is that nanometals having the same mean grain size may have different grain size dispersion and, hence, may have different material properties. This has often led to conflicting reports from both theoretical and experimental findings about the evolutions of the mechanical properties of nanomaterials. The present paper employs stochastic model to study the impact of microstructure evolution during grain growth on the mechanical properties of polycrystalline nanometals. The stochastic model for grain growth and the stochastic model for changes in mechanical properties of nanomaterials are proposed. The model for the mechanical properties developed is tested on aluminium samples.Many salient features of the mechanical properties of the aluminium samples are revealed. The results show that the different mechanisms of grain growth impart different nature of response to the material mechanical properties. The conventional, homologous and anomalous temperature dependences of the yield stress have also been revealed to be due to different nature of interactions of the microstructures during evolution.

  6. Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

  7. TIME-DEPENDENT STOCHASTIC ACCELERATION MODEL FOR FERMI BUBBLES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasaki, Kento; Asano, Katsuaki; Terasawa, Toshio, E-mail: kentos@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: asanok@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: terasawa@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan)

    2015-12-01

    We study stochastic acceleration models for the Fermi bubbles. Turbulence is excited just behind the shock front via Kelvin–Helmholtz, Rayleigh–Taylor, or Richtmyer–Meshkov instabilities, and plasma particles are continuously accelerated by the interaction with the turbulence. The turbulence gradually decays as it goes away from the shock fronts. Adopting a phenomenological model for the stochastic acceleration, we explicitly solve the temporal evolution of the particle energy distribution in the turbulence. Our results show that the spatial distribution of high-energy particles is different from those for a steady solution. We also show that the contribution of electrons that escaped from the acceleration regions significantly softens the photon spectrum. The photon spectrum and surface brightness profile are reproduced by our models. If the escape efficiency is very high, the radio flux from the escaped low-energy electrons can be comparable to that of the WMAP haze. We also demonstrate hadronic models with the stochastic acceleration, but they are unlikely in the viewpoint of the energy budget.

  8. Stochastic models of solute transport in highly heterogeneous geologic media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semenov, V.N.; Korotkin, I.A.; Pruess, K.; Goloviznin, V.M.; Sorokovikova, O.S.

    2009-09-15

    A stochastic model of anomalous diffusion was developed in which transport occurs by random motion of Brownian particles, described by distribution functions of random displacements with heavy (power-law) tails. One variant of an effective algorithm for random function generation with a power-law asymptotic and arbitrary factor of asymmetry is proposed that is based on the Gnedenko-Levy limit theorem and makes it possible to reproduce all known Levy {alpha}-stable fractal processes. A two-dimensional stochastic random walk algorithm has been developed that approximates anomalous diffusion with streamline-dependent and space-dependent parameters. The motivation for introducing such a type of dispersion model is the observed fact that tracers in natural aquifers spread at different super-Fickian rates in different directions. For this and other important cases, stochastic random walk models are the only known way to solve the so-called multiscaling fractional order diffusion equation with space-dependent parameters. Some comparisons of model results and field experiments are presented.

  9. A Stochastic Operational Planning Model for Smart Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sh. Jadid

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Smart Grids are result of utilizing novel technologies such as distributed energy resources, and communication technologies in power system to compensate some of its defects. Various power resources provide some benefits for operation domain however, power system operator should use a powerful methodology to manage them. Renewable resources and load add uncertainty to the problem. So, independent system operator should use a stochastic method to manage them. A Stochastic unit commitment is presented in this paper to schedule various power resources such as distributed generation units, conventional thermal generation units, wind and PV farms, and demand response resources. Demand response resources, interruptible loads, distributed generation units, and conventional thermal generation units are used to provide required reserve for compensating stochastic nature of various resources and loads. In the presented model, resources connected to distribution network can participate in wholesale market through aggregators. Moreover, a novel three-program model which can be used by aggregators is presented in this article. Loads and distributed generation can contract with aggregators by these programs. A three-bus test system and the IEEE RTS are used to illustrate usefulness of the presented model. The results show that ISO can manage the system effectively by using this model

  10. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  11. Modeling and stochastic analysis of dynamic mechanisms of the perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarchik, A.; Bashkirtseva, I.; Ryashko, L.

    2017-10-01

    Modern studies in physiology and cognitive neuroscience consider a noise as an important constructive factor of the brain functionality. Under the adequate noise, the brain can rapidly access different ordered states, and provide decision-making by preventing deadlocks. Bistable dynamic models are often used for the study of the underlying mechanisms of the visual perception. In the present paper, we consider a bistable energy model subject to both additive and parametric noise. Using the catastrophe theory formalism and stochastic sensitivity functions technique, we analyze a response of the equilibria to noise, and study noise-induced transitions between equilibria. We demonstrate and analyse the effect of hysteresis squeezing when the intensity of noise is increased. Stochastic bifurcations connected with the suppression of oscillations by parametric noises are discussed.

  12. Stochastic modeling of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride attack

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frier, Christian

    2004-01-01

    For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in expensive maintenance and repair actions. Further, a significant reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. One mode of corrosion initiation is that the chloride content around...... concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by stochastic fields. The paper contains a description of the parameters to be included in a stochastic model and a proposal for the information needed to obtain values for the parameters in order to be able to perform reliability investigations....... The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by simulation. As an example a bridge pier in a marine environment is considered....

  13. Stochastic Modeling of Reinforced Concrete Structures Exposed to Chloride Attack

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Frier, Christian

    2003-01-01

    For many reinforced concrete structures corrosion of reinforcement is an important problem since it can result in expensive maintenance and repair actions. Further, a significant reduction of the load-bearing capacity can occur. One mode of corrosion initiation is that the chloride content around...... concentration and reinforcement cover depth are modeled by stochastic fields. The paper contains a description of the parameters to be included in a stochastic model and a proposal for the information needed to obtain values for the parameters in order to be ab le to perform reliability investigations....... The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion is estimated by simulation. As an example a bridge pier in a marine environment is considered....

  14. Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkle, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

  15. Stochastic modeling of the hypothalamic pulse generator activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camproux, A C; Thalabard, J C; Thomas, G

    1994-11-01

    Luteinizing hormone (LH) is released by the pituitary in discrete pulses. In the monkey, the appearance of LH pulses in the plasma is invariably associated with sharp increases (i.e, volleys) in the frequency of the hypothalamic pulse generator electrical activity, so that continuous monitoring of this activity by telemetry provides a unique means to study the temporal structure of the mechanism generating the pulses. To assess whether the times of occurrence and durations of previous volleys exert significant influence on the timing of the next volley, we used a class of periodic counting process models that specify the stochastic intensity of the process as the product of two factors: 1) a periodic baseline intensity and 2) a stochastic regression function with covariates representing the influence of the past. This approach allows the characterization of circadian modulation and memory range of the process underlying hypothalamic pulse generator activity, as illustrated by fitting the model to experimental data from two ovariectomized rhesus monkeys.

  16. On a Versatile Stochastic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samiur Arif

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Growth phenomena are ubiquitous and pervasive not only in biology and the medical sciences, but also in economics, marketing and the computer and social sciences. We introduce a three-parameter version of the classic pure-birth process growth model when suitably instantiated, can be used to model growth phenomena in many seemingly unrelated application domains. We point out that the model is computationally attractive since it admits of conceptually simple, closed form solutions for the time-dependent probabilities.

  17. An extension of clarke's model with stochastic amplitude flip processes

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2014-07-01

    Stochastic modeling is an essential tool for studying statistical properties of wireless channels. In multipath fading channel (MFC) models, the signal reception is modeled by a sum of wave path contributions, and Clarke\\'s model is an important example of such which has been widely accepted in many wireless applications. However, since Clarke\\'s model is temporally deterministic, Feng and Field noted that it does not model real wireless channels with time-varying randomness well. Here, we extend Clarke\\'s model to a novel time-varying stochastic MFC model with scatterers randomly flipping on and off. Statistical properties of the MFC model are analyzed and shown to fit well with real signal measurements, and a limit Gaussian process is derived from the model when the number of active wave paths tends to infinity. A second focus of this work is a comparison study of the error and computational cost of generating signal realizations from the MFC model and from its limit Gaussian process. By rigorous analysis and numerical studies, we show that in many settings, signal realizations are generated more efficiently by Gaussian process algorithms than by the MFC model\\'s algorithm. Numerical examples that strengthen these observations are also presented. © 2014 IEEE.

  18. Stochastic Models of Molecule Formation on Dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charnley, Steven; Wirstroem, Eva

    2011-01-01

    We will present new theoretical models for the formation of molecules on dust. The growth of ice mantles and their layered structure is accounted for and compared directly to observations through simulation of the expected ice absorption spectra

  19. Deterministic geologic processes and stochastic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Flint, A.L.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that recent outcrop sampling at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has produced significant new information regarding the distribution of physical properties at the site of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. consideration of the spatial variability indicates that her are a number of widespread deterministic geologic features at the site that have important implications for numerical modeling of such performance aspects as ground water flow and radionuclide transport. Because the geologic processes responsible for formation of Yucca Mountain are relatively well understood and operate on a more-or-less regional scale, understanding of these processes can be used in modeling the physical properties and performance of the site. Information reflecting these deterministic geologic processes may be incorporated into the modeling program explicitly using geostatistical concepts such as soft information, or implicitly, through the adoption of a particular approach to modeling

  20. Stochastic Multiscale Modeling of Polycrystalline Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    The single-grid strategy is adopted. The crystal visco-plastic constitutive model proposed in [7] along with a Voce type hardening model described...in [97] is used with γ̇0 = 1s−1 and m = 0.1. The parameters in the Voce type hardening law are selected according to [97]: κ0 = 47.0MPa, κ1 = 86.0MPa

  1. Inference of a Nonlinear Stochastic Model of the Cardiorespiratory Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Luchinsky, D. G.; Stefanovska, A.; McClintock, P. V.

    2005-03-01

    We reconstruct a nonlinear stochastic model of the cardiorespiratory interaction in terms of a set of polynomial basis functions representing the nonlinear force governing system oscillations. The strength and direction of coupling and noise intensity are simultaneously inferred from a univariate blood pressure signal. Our new inference technique does not require extensive global optimization, and it is applicable to a wide range of complex dynamical systems subject to noise.

  2. Stochastic Model Predictive Control with Applications in Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Mølbak, Tommy

    2012-01-01

    to cover more than 50% of the total consumption by 2050. Energy systems based on significant amounts of renewable energy sources are subject to uncertainties. To accommodate the need for model predictive control (MPC) of such systems, the effect of the stochastic effects on the constraints must...... study, we consider a system consisting of fuel-fired thermal power plants, wind farms and electric vehicles....

  3. Stochastic model of Rayleigh-Taylor turbulent mixing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abarzhi, S.I.; Cadjan, M.; Fedotov, S.

    2007-01-01

    We propose a stochastic model to describe the random character of the dissipation process in Rayleigh-Taylor turbulent mixing. The parameter alpha, used conventionally to characterize the mixing growth-rate, is not a universal constant and is very sensitive to the statistical properties of the dissipation. The ratio between the rates of momentum loss and momentum gain is the statistic invariant and a robust parameter to diagnose with or without turbulent diffusion accounted for

  4. Dynamic analysis of a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying; Wang, Shuangfeng; Zou, Guang-an

    2018-02-01

    The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, has led rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic delayed rumor propagation model. Firstly, we obtain the existence of the global solution. Secondly, sufficient conditions for extinction of the rumor are established. Lastly, the boundedness of solution is proved and some simulations are given to verify our results.

  5. Stochastic Modeling and Deterministic Limit of Catalytic Surface Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens; Reichert, Christian; Eiswirth, Markus

    2007-01-01

    Three levels of modeling, microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic are discussed for the CO oxidation on low-index platinum single crystal surfaces. The introduced models on the microscopic and mesoscopic level are stochastic while the model on the macroscopic level is deterministic. It can......, such that in contrast to the microscopic model the spatial resolution is reduced. The derivation of deterministic limit equations is in correspondence with the successful description of experiments under low-pressure conditions by deterministic reaction-diffusion equations while for intermediate pressures phenomena...

  6. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  7. Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

    2012-05-01

    Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

  8. On a Stochastic Model in Insurance

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Insurance mathematics today is considered a part of applied probability theory. Main objectives are modelling of claims that arrive in an insurance business, and decide how premiums are to be charged to avoid ruin of the insurance company. GENERAL I ARTICLE various results and the heuristics can be appreciated.

  9. Stochastic Modelling of Wireless Energy Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veilleux, Shaun; Almaghasilah, Ahmed; Abedi, Ali; Wilkerson, DeLisa

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the efficiency of a new method of powering remote sensors by the means of wireless energy transfer. The increased use of sensors for data collection comes with the inherent cost of supplying power from sources such as power cables or batteries. Wireless energy transfer technology eliminates the need for power cables or periodic battery replacement. The time and cost of setting up or expanding a sensor network will be reduced while allowing sensors to be placed in areas where running power cables or battery replacement is not feasible. This paper models wireless channels for power and data separately. Smart scheduling for the data channel is proposed to avoid transmitting data on a noisy channel where the probability of data loss is high to improve power efficiency. Analytical models have been developed and verified using simulations.

  10. Stochastic modeling of a serial killer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simkin, M V; Roychowdhury, V P

    2014-08-21

    We analyze the time pattern of the activity of a serial killer, who during 12 years had murdered 53 people. The plot of the cumulative number of murders as a function of time is of "Devil's staircase" type. The distribution of the intervals between murders (step length) follows a power law with the exponent of 1.4. We propose a model according to which the serial killer commits murders when neuronal excitation in his brain exceeds certain threshold. We model this neural activity as a branching process, which in turn is approximated by a random walk. As the distribution of the random walk return times is a power law with the exponent 1.5, the distribution of the inter-murder intervals is thus explained. We illustrate analytical results by numerical simulation. Time pattern activity data from two other serial killers further substantiate our analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Neural network connectivity and response latency modelled by stochastic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tamborrino, Massimiliano

    is connected to thousands of other neurons. The rst question is: how to model neural networks through stochastic processes? A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, obtained as a diffusion approximation of a jump process, is the proposed answer. Obviously, dependencies between neurons imply dependencies......Stochastic processes and their rst passage times have been widely used to describe the membrane potential dynamics of single neurons and to reproduce neuronal spikes, respectively.However, cerebral cortex in human brains is estimated to contain 10-20 billions of neurons and each of them...... between their spike times. Therefore, the second question is: how to detect neural network connectivity from simultaneously recorded spike trains? Answering this question corresponds to investigate the joint distribution of sequences of rst passage times. A non-parametric method based on copulas...

  12. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator–prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobramysl, U; Täuber, U C

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka–Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator–prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization. (paper)

  13. Classical and quantum stochastic models of resistive and memristive circuits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, John E.; Zhang, Guofeng

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine stochastic Markovian models for circuits in phase space for which the drift term is equivalent to the standard circuit equations. In particular, we include dissipative components corresponding to both a resistor and a memristor in series. We obtain a dilation of the problem which is canonical in the sense that the underlying Poisson bracket structure is preserved under the stochastic flow. We do this first of all for standard Wiener noise but also treat the problem using a new concept of symplectic noise, where the Poisson structure is extended to the noise as well as the circuit variables, and in particular where we have canonically conjugate noises. Finally, we construct a dilation which describes the quantum mechanical analogue.

  14. Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobay, M. P. D., E-mail: maria.pamela.david@physik.uni-muenchen.de; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Raedler, J. O., E-mail: joachim.raedler@physik.uni-muenchen.de [Ludwig-Maximilians University, Faculty of Physics, Center for NanoScience (Germany)

    2012-03-15

    Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.

  15. Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.

    2012-01-01

    Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.

  16. Modeling nanoparticle uptake and intracellular distribution using stochastic process algebras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobay, M. P. D.; Alberola, A. Piera; Mendoza, E. R.; Rädler, J. O.

    2012-03-01

    Computational modeling is increasingly important to help understand the interaction and movement of nanoparticles (NPs) within living cells, and to come to terms with the wealth of data that microscopy imaging yields. A quantitative description of the spatio-temporal distribution of NPs inside cells; however, it is challenging due to the complexity of multiple compartments such as endosomes and nuclei, which themselves are dynamic and can undergo fusion and fission and exchange their content. Here, we show that stochastic pi calculus, a widely-used process algebra, is well suited for mapping surface and intracellular NP interactions and distributions. In stochastic pi calculus, each NP is represented as a process, which can adopt various states such as bound or aggregated, as well as be passed between processes representing location, as a function of predefined stochastic channels. We created a pi calculus model of gold NP uptake and intracellular movement and compared the evolution of surface-bound, cytosolic, endosomal, and nuclear NP densities with electron microscopy data. We demonstrate that the computational approach can be extended to include specific molecular binding and potential interaction with signaling cascades as characteristic for NP-cell interactions in a wide range of applications such as nanotoxicity, viral infection, and drug delivery.

  17. Uncertainty quantification and stochastic modeling with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Souza de Cursi, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a relatively new research area which describes the methods and approaches used to supply quantitative descriptions of the effects of uncertainty, variability and errors in simulation problems and models. It is rapidly becoming a field of increasing importance, with many real-world applications within statistics, mathematics, probability and engineering, but also within the natural sciences. Literature on the topic has up until now been largely based on polynomial chaos, which raises difficulties when considering different types of approximation and does no

  18. Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2013-04-01

    The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

  19. On the abelianity of the stochastic sandpile model

    OpenAIRE

    Nunzi, François

    2016-01-01

    We consider a stochastic variant of the Abelian Sandpile Model (ASM) on a finite graph, introduced by Chan, Marckert and Selig. Even though it is a more general model, some nice properties still hold. We show that on a certain probability space, even if we lose the group structure due to topplings not being deterministic, some operators still commute. As a corollary, we show that the stationary distribution still does not depend on how sand grains are added onto the graph in our model, answer...

  20. Test models for improving filtering with model errors through stochastic parameter estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic parameter estimation is developed based on the Stochastic Parameterization Extended Kalman Filter (SPEKF). These new SPEKF-algorithms systematically correct both multiplicative and additive biases and involve exact formulas for propagating the mean and covariance including the parameters in the test model. A comprehensive study is presented of robust parameter regimes for increasing filtering skill through stochastic parameter estimation for turbulent signals as the observation time and observation noise are varied and even when the forcing is incorrectly specified. The results here provide useful guidelines for filtering turbulent signals in more complex systems with significant model errors.

  1. Two new algorithms to combine kriging with stochastic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf; Varnai, Tamas; Simmer, Clemens

    2010-05-01

    Two main groups of statistical methods used in the Earth sciences are geostatistics and stochastic modelling. Geostatistical methods, such as various kriging algorithms, aim at estimating the mean value for every point as well as possible. In case of sparse measurements, such fields have less variability at small scales and a narrower distribution as the true field. This can lead to biases if a nonlinear process is simulated driven by such a kriged field. Stochastic modelling aims at reproducing the statistical structure of the data in space and time. One of the stochastic modelling methods, the so-called surrogate data approach, replicates the value distribution and power spectrum of a certain data set. While stochastic methods reproduce the statistical properties of the data, the location of the measurement is not considered. This requires the use of so-called constrained stochastic models. Because radiative transfer through clouds is a highly nonlinear process, it is essential to model the distribution (e.g. of optical depth, extinction, liquid water content or liquid water path) accurately. In addition, the correlations within the cloud field are important, especially because of horizontal photon transport. This explains the success of surrogate cloud fields for use in 3D radiative transfer studies. Up to now, however, we could only achieve good results for the radiative properties averaged over the field, but not for a radiation measurement located at a certain position. Therefore we have developed a new algorithm that combines the accuracy of stochastic (surrogate) modelling with the positioning capabilities of kriging. In this way, we can automatically profit from the large geostatistical literature and software. This algorithm is similar to the standard iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) algorithm, but has an additional iterative step in which the surrogate field is nudged towards the kriged field. The nudging strength is gradually

  2. Interactions in a tritrophic acarine predator-prey metapopulation system V: Within-plant dynamics of Phytoseiulus persimilis and Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Phytoseiidae, Tetranychidae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nachman, Gösta; Zemek, Rostislav

    2003-01-01

    Biological control, Bottom-up factor, Phytoseiulus persimilis, Plant condition, Predacious mites, Simulation model, Tetranychus urticae, Top-down factor, Two-spotted spider mites......Biological control, Bottom-up factor, Phytoseiulus persimilis, Plant condition, Predacious mites, Simulation model, Tetranychus urticae, Top-down factor, Two-spotted spider mites...

  3. STOCHASTIC MODEL OF THE SPIN DISTRIBUTION OF DARK MATTER HALOS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Juhan [Center for Advanced Computation, Korea Institute for Advanced Study, Heogiro 85, Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Yun-Young [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Gyeonggi 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sungsoo S.; Lee, Jeong-Eun [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Gyeonggi 446-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-09-15

    We employ a stochastic approach to probing the origin of the log-normal distributions of halo spin in N-body simulations. After analyzing spin evolution in halo merging trees, it was found that a spin change can be characterized by a stochastic random walk of angular momentum. Also, spin distributions generated by random walks are fairly consistent with those directly obtained from N-body simulations. We derived a stochastic differential equation from a widely used spin definition and measured the probability distributions of the derived angular momentum change from a massive set of halo merging trees. The roles of major merging and accretion are also statistically analyzed in evolving spin distributions. Several factors (local environment, halo mass, merging mass ratio, and redshift) are found to influence the angular momentum change. The spin distributions generated in the mean-field or void regions tend to shift slightly to a higher spin value compared with simulated spin distributions, which seems to be caused by the correlated random walks. We verified the assumption of randomness in the angular momentum change observed in the N-body simulation and detected several degrees of correlation between walks, which may provide a clue for the discrepancies between the simulated and generated spin distributions in the voids. However, the generated spin distributions in the group and cluster regions successfully match the simulated spin distribution. We also demonstrated that the log-normality of the spin distribution is a natural consequence of the stochastic differential equation of the halo spin, which is well described by the Geometric Brownian Motion model.

  4. The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei

    2017-06-01

    A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.

  5. On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

  6. Irreversible prey diapause as an optimal strategy of a physiologically extended Lotka-Volterra model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staňková, K.; Abate, A.; Sabelis, M.W.

    2013-01-01

    We propose an optimal control framework to describe intra-seasonal predator-prey interactions, which are characterized by a continuous-time dynamical model comprising predator and prey density, as well as the energy budget of the prey over the length of a season. The model includes a time-dependent

  7. Turing patterns and long-time behavior in a three-species food-chain model

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana D.; Kumari, Nitu Krishna; Kasimov, Aslan R.; Ait Abderrahmane, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    We consider a spatially explicit three-species food chain model, describing generalist top predator-specialist middle predator-prey dynamics. We investigate the long-time dynamics of the model and show the existence of a finite dimensional global

  8. Optimizing ZigBee Security using Stochastic Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yuksel, Ender; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming

    , we identify an important gap in the specification on key updates, and present a methodology for determining optimal key update policies and security parameters. We exploit the stochastic model checking approach using the probabilistic model checker PRISM, and assess the security needs for realistic......ZigBee is a fairly new but promising wireless sensor network standard that offers the advantages of simple and low resource communication. Nevertheless, security is of great concern to ZigBee, and enhancements are prescribed in the latest ZigBee specication: ZigBee-2007. In this technical report...

  9. Green function simulation of Hamiltonian lattice models with stochastic reconfiguration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beccaria, M.

    2000-01-01

    We apply a recently proposed Green function Monte Carlo procedure to the study of Hamiltonian lattice gauge theories. This class of algorithms computes quantum vacuum expectation values by averaging over a set of suitable weighted random walkers. By means of a procedure called stochastic reconfiguration the long standing problem of keeping fixed the walker population without a priori knowledge of the ground state is completely solved. In the U(1) 2 model, which we choose as our theoretical laboratory, we evaluate the mean plaquette and the vacuum energy per plaquette. We find good agreement with previous works using model-dependent guiding functions for the random walkers. (orig.)

  10. Stochastic series expansion simulation of the t -V model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Liu, Ye-Hua; Troyer, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    We present an algorithm for the efficient simulation of the half-filled spinless t -V model on bipartite lattices, which combines the stochastic series expansion method with determinantal quantum Monte Carlo techniques widely used in fermionic simulations. The algorithm scales linearly in the inverse temperature, cubically with the system size, and is free from the time-discretization error. We use it to map out the finite-temperature phase diagram of the spinless t -V model on the honeycomb lattice and observe a suppression of the critical temperature of the charge-density-wave phase in the vicinity of a fermionic quantum critical point.

  11. ARMA modelling of neutron stochastic processes with large measurement noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavaljevski, N.; Kostic, Lj.; Pesic, M.

    1994-01-01

    An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model of the neutron fluctuations with large measurement noise is derived from langevin stochastic equations and validated using time series data obtained during prompt neutron decay constant measurements at the zero power reactor RB in Vinca. Model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) off-line algorithm and an adaptive pole estimation algorithm based on the recursive prediction error method (RPE). The results show that subcriticality can be determined from real data with high measurement noise using much shorter statistical sample than in standard methods. (author)

  12. Dynamic analysis of a stochastic rumor propagation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fangju; Lv, Guangying

    2018-01-01

    The rapid development of the Internet, especially the emergence of the social networks, leads rumor propagation into a new media era. In this paper, we are concerned with a stochastic rumor propagation model. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the rumor are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the rumor is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

  13. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  14. A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    von Schwerin, Erik; Szepessy, Anders

    2010-01-01

    The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.

  15. A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    von Schwerin, Erik

    2010-03-17

    The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.

  16. Stochastic modeling for river pollution of Sungai Perlis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yunus, Nurul Izzaty Mohd.; Rahman, Haliza Abd. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [UTM-Centre of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    River pollution has been recognized as a contributor to a wide range of health problems and disorders in human. It can pose health dangers to humans who come into contact with it, either directly or indirectly. Therefore, it is most important to measure the concentration of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as a water quality parameter since the parameter has long been the basic means for determining the degree of water pollution in rivers. In this study, BOD is used as a parameter to estimate the water quality at Sungai Perlis. It has been observed that Sungai Perlis is polluted due to lack of management and improper use of resources. Therefore, it is of importance to model the Sungai Perlis water quality in order to describe and predict the water quality systems. The BOD concentration secondary data set is used which was extracted from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Perlis State website. The first order differential equation from Streeter – Phelps model was utilized as a deterministic model. Then, the model was developed into a stochastic model. Results from this study shows that the stochastic model is more adequate to describe and predict the BOD concentration and the water quality systems in Sungai Perlis by having smaller value of mean squared error (MSE)

  17. Stochastic modeling for river pollution of Sungai Perlis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yunus, Nurul Izzaty Mohd.; Rahman, Haliza Abd.; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-01-01

    River pollution has been recognized as a contributor to a wide range of health problems and disorders in human. It can pose health dangers to humans who come into contact with it, either directly or indirectly. Therefore, it is most important to measure the concentration of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as a water quality parameter since the parameter has long been the basic means for determining the degree of water pollution in rivers. In this study, BOD is used as a parameter to estimate the water quality at Sungai Perlis. It has been observed that Sungai Perlis is polluted due to lack of management and improper use of resources. Therefore, it is of importance to model the Sungai Perlis water quality in order to describe and predict the water quality systems. The BOD concentration secondary data set is used which was extracted from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Perlis State website. The first order differential equation from Streeter – Phelps model was utilized as a deterministic model. Then, the model was developed into a stochastic model. Results from this study shows that the stochastic model is more adequate to describe and predict the BOD concentration and the water quality systems in Sungai Perlis by having smaller value of mean squared error (MSE)

  18. Calibration of a stochastic health evolution model using NHIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aparna; Li, Zhisheng

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents and calibrates an individual's stochastic health evolution model. In this health evolution model, the uncertainty of health incidents is described by a stochastic process with a finite number of possible outcomes. We construct a comprehensive health status index (HSI) to describe an individual's health status, as well as a health risk factor system (RFS) to classify individuals into different risk groups. Based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method and the method of nonlinear least squares fitting, model calibration is formulated in terms of two mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. Using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data, the model is calibrated for specific risk groups. Longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is used to validate the calibrated model, which displays good validation properties. The end goal of this paper is to provide a model and methodology, whose output can serve as a crucial component of decision support for strategic planning of health related financing and risk management.

  19. Stochastic modelling of avascular tumour growth and therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahoo, S; Sahoo, A; Shearer, S F C

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a generalized stochastic model for the growth of avascular tumours is presented. This model captures the dynamical evolution of avascular tumour cell subpopulations by incorporating Gaussian white noise into the growth rate of the mitotic function. This work generalizes the deterministic model proposed by Sherratt and Chaplain (2001 J. Math. Biol. 43 291) where they formulated a tumour model in an in vivo setting, in terms of continuum densities of proliferating, quiescent and necrotic cells. Detailed simulations of our model show that the inclusion of Gaussian noise in the original model of Sherratt and Chaplain substantially distorts the overall structure of the density profiles in addition to reducing the speed of tumour growth. Within this stochastic carcinogenesis framework the action of therapy is also investigated by replacing Gaussian white noise with a therapy term. We compare a constant therapy protocol with a logarithmic time-dependent protocol. Our results predict that a logarithmic therapy is more effective than the constant therapy protocol.

  20. A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous-time state......Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic......-space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size...