WorldWideScience

Sample records for stochastic economic environment

  1. A Stochastic Flows Approach for Asset Allocation with Hidden Economic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tak Kuen Siu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An optimal asset allocation problem for a quite general class of utility functions is discussed in a simple two-state Markovian regime-switching model, where the appreciation rate of a risky share changes over time according to the state of a hidden economy. As usual, standard filtering theory is used to transform a financial model with hidden information into one with complete information, where a martingale approach is applied to discuss the optimal asset allocation problem. Using a martingale representation coupled with stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms for the filtering equation, the integrand in the martingale representation is identified which gives rise to an optimal portfolio strategy under some differentiability conditions.

  2. Adaptation in stochastic environments

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, Colib

    1993-01-01

    The classical theory of natural selection, as developed by Fisher, Haldane, and 'Wright, and their followers, is in a sense a statistical theory. By and large the classical theory assumes that the underlying environment in which evolution transpires is both constant and stable - the theory is in this sense deterministic. In reality, on the other hand, nature is almost always changing and unstable. We do not yet possess a complete theory of natural selection in stochastic environ­ ments. Perhaps it has been thought that such a theory is unimportant, or that it would be too difficult. Our own view is that the time is now ripe for the development of a probabilistic theory of natural selection. The present volume is an attempt to provide an elementary introduction to this probabilistic theory. Each author was asked to con­ tribute a simple, basic introduction to his or her specialty, including lively discussions and speculation. We hope that the book contributes further to the understanding of the roles of "Cha...

  3. Evolutionary stability concepts in a stochastic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiu-Deng; Li, Cong; Lessard, Sabin; Tao, Yi

    2017-09-01

    Over the past 30 years, evolutionary game theory and the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy have been not only extensively developed and successfully applied to explain the evolution of animal behaviors, but also widely used in economics and social sciences. Nonetheless, the stochastic dynamical properties of evolutionary games in randomly fluctuating environments are still unclear. In this study, we investigate conditions for stochastic local stability of fixation states and constant interior equilibria in a two-phenotype model with random payoffs following pairwise interactions. Based on this model, we develop the concepts of stochastic evolutionary stability (SES) and stochastic convergence stability (SCS). We show that the condition for a pure strategy to be SES and SCS is more stringent than in a constant environment, while the condition for a constant mixed strategy to be SES is less stringent than the condition to be SCS, which is less stringent than the condition in a constant environment.

  4. Economic and environmental optimization of a large scale sustainable dual feedstock lignocellulosic-based bioethanol supply chain in a stochastic environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmani, Atif; Zhang, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • 2-Stage stochastic MILP model for optimizing the performance of a sustainable lignocellulosic-based biofuel supply chain. • Multiple uncertainties in biomass supply, purchase price of biomass, bioethanol demand, and sale price of bioethanol. • Stochastic parameters significantly impact the allocation of biomass processing capacities of biorefineries. • Location of biorefineries and choice of conversion technology is found to be insensitive to the stochastic environment. • Use of Sample Average Approximation (SAA) algorithm as a decomposition technique. - Abstract: This work proposes a two-stage stochastic optimization model to maximize the expected profit and simultaneously minimize carbon emissions of a dual-feedstock lignocellulosic-based bioethanol supply chain (LBSC) under uncertainties in supply, demand and prices. The model decides the optimal first-stage decisions and the expected values of the second-stage decisions. A case study based on a 4-state Midwestern region in the US demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic model over a deterministic model under uncertainties. Two regional modes are considered for the geographic scale of the LBSC. Under co-operation mode the 4 states are considered as a combined region while under stand-alone mode each of the 4 states is considered as an individual region. Each state under co-operation mode gives better financial and environmental outcomes when compared to stand-alone mode. Uncertainty has a significant impact on the biomass processing capacity of biorefineries. While the location and the choice of conversion technology for biorefineries i.e. biochemical vs. thermochemical, are insensitive to the stochastic environment. As variability of the stochastic parameters increases, the financial and environmental performance is degraded. Sensitivity analysis shows that levels of tax credit and carbon price have a major impact on the choice of conversion technology for a selected

  5. Obesity and economic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturm, Roland; An, Ruopeng

    2014-01-01

    This review summarizes current understanding of economic factors during the obesity epidemic and dispels some widely held, but incorrect, beliefs. Rising obesity rates coincided with increases in leisure time (rather than increased work hours), increased fruit and vegetable availability (rather than a decline in healthier foods), and increased exercise uptake. As a share of disposable income, Americans now have the cheapest food available in history, which fueled the obesity epidemic. Weight gain was surprisingly similar across sociodemographic groups or geographic areas, rather than specific to some groups (at every point in time; however, there are clear disparities). It suggests that if one wants to understand the role of the environment in the obesity epidemic, one needs to understand changes over time affecting all groups, not differences between subgroups at a given time. Although economic and technological changes in the environment drove the obesity epidemic, the evidence for effective economic policies to prevent obesity remains limited. Taxes on foods with low nutritional value could nudge behavior toward healthier diets, as could subsidies/discounts for healthier foods. However, even a large price change for healthy foods could close only part of the gap between dietary guidelines and actual food consumption. Political support has been lacking for even moderate price interventions in the United States and this may continue until the role of environmental factors is accepted more widely. As opinion leaders, clinicians play an important role in shaping the understanding of the causes of obesity. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  6. Robustness of Populations in Stochastic Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gießen, Christian; Kötzing, Timo

    2016-01-01

    We consider stochastic versions of OneMax and LeadingOnes and analyze the performance of evolutionary algorithms with and without populations on these problems. It is known that the (1+1) EA on OneMax performs well in the presence of very small noise, but poorly for higher noise levels. We extend...... the abilities of the (1+1) EA. Larger population sizes are even more beneficial; we consider both parent and offspring populations. In this sense, populations are robust in these stochastic settings....

  7. Economics and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alm, A.L.

    1991-01-01

    There is no reason to believe that strict environmental controls are inconsistent with economic well-being and competitiveness. In fact, firms in nations with tough standards have a competitive edge. They have already made some of the capital investments, are finding ways to eliminate wastes, and are developing exportable technologies and skills. The economic argument in the US should not be focused on how pollution control affects the domestic economy. It should be focused on how we can create a framework for technological innovation to solve problems more efficiently and effectively and then to actively propel this innovation into global markets

  8. Food Environment and Weight Outcomes: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xun; Lopez, Rigoberto A.

    2013-01-01

    Food environment includes the presence of supermarkets, restaurants, warehouse clubs and supercenters, and other food outlets. This paper evaluates weight outcomes from a food environment using a stochastic production frontier and an equation for the determinants of efficiency, where the explanatory variables of the efficiency term include food environment indicators. Using individual consumer data and food environment data from New England counties, empirical results indicate that fruit and ...

  9. Robustness of Populations in Stochastic Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gießen, Christian; Kötzing, Timo

    2014-01-01

    these results to LeadingOnes and to many different noise models, showing how the application of drift theory can significantly simplify and generalize previous analyses. Most surprisingly, even small populations (of size _(log n)) can make evolutionary algorithms perform well for high noise levels, well outside......We consider stochastic versions of OneMax and Leading-Ones and analyze the performance of evolutionary algorithms with and without populations on these problems. It is known that the (1+1) EA on OneMax performs well in the presence of very small noise, but poorly for higher noise levels. We extend...

  10. Economic MPC for a linear stochastic system of energy units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Sokoler, Leo Emil; Standardi, Laura

    2016-01-01

    This paper summarizes comprehensively the work in four recent PhD theses from the Technical University of Denmark related to Economic MPC of future power systems. Future power systems will consist of a large number of decentralized power producers and a large number of controllable power consumers...... in addition to stochastic power producers such as wind turbines and solar power plants. Control of such large scale systems requires new control algorithms. In this paper, we formulate the control of such a system as an Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) problem. When the power producers and controllable...... power consumers have linear dynamics, the Economic MPC may be expressed as a linear program. We provide linear models for a number of energy units in an energy system, formulate an Economic MPC for coordination of such a system. We indicate how advances in computational MPC makes the solutions...

  11. Expectations, economics and environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holliday, F

    1992-06-01

    Professor Sir Frederick Holliday, an expert on environmental matters reviews progress in the UK, Europe and internationally on environmental issues. He mentions the UK government's targets and commitments of the White Paper, 'This common inheritance', EC legislation on environmental matters, the importance of the Rio 'earth summit' on exerting a pull on government policies the necessary links between safety and the environment (illustrating this with events in the oil industry) and the importance of attaining, inexpensive, readily accessible energy supply for the third world. He considers that increased use of natural gas and of renewable resources, together with conservation measures and the greater use of nuclear power is the best scenario for tackling the problems of poverty and pollution. 20 refs.

  12. Automated planning through abstractions in dynamic and stochastic environments

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez Muñoz, Moisés

    2016-01-01

    Mención Internacional en el título de doctor Generating sequences of actions - plans - for an automatic system, like a robot, using Automated Planning is particularly diflicult in stochastic and/or dynamic environments. These plans are composed of actions whose execution, in certain scenarios, might fail, which in tum prevents the execution of the rest of the actions in the plan. Also, in some environments, plans must he generated fast, hoth at the start of the execution and after every ex...

  13. Phenotypic switching of populations of cells in a stochastic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufton, Peter G.; Lin, Yen Ting; Galla, Tobias

    2018-02-01

    In biology phenotypic switching is a common bet-hedging strategy in the face of uncertain environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models often focus on periodically changing environments to determine the optimal phenotypic response. We focus on the case in which the environment switches randomly between discrete states. Starting from an individual-based model we derive stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics, and obtain analytical expressions for the mean instantaneous growth rates based on the theory of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We show that optimal phenotypic responses are non-trivial for slow and intermediate environmental processes, and systematically compare the cases of periodic and random environments. The best response to random switching is more likely to be heterogeneity than in the case of deterministic periodic environments, net growth rates tend to be higher under stochastic environmental dynamics. The combined system of environment and population of cells can be interpreted as host-pathogen interaction, in which the host tries to choose environmental switching so as to minimise growth of the pathogen, and in which the pathogen employs a phenotypic switching optimised to increase its growth rate. We discuss the existence of Nash-like mutual best-response scenarios for such host-pathogen games.

  14. Environment, energy, and economic performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-09-25

    This thesis analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation as well as energy market developments on the one hand, and economic performance on the other. Due to its economic effects environmental regulation is controversially disputed. The thesis shows, however, that the economic impacts of the recently adopted climate policy in Europe, namely of the implementation of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme, have been modest at most. Consistent with economic theory, the low stringency of this regulatory measure that is aimed at combating man-made climate change is identified as one important driver of this result. Moreover, results presented in this thesis also indicate the important role which the political economy plays for the design of environmental regulation in general. These mechanisms are shown to be a driver of the low stringency and, consequently, of the small economic effects during the first phase of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. The thesis highlights the role of investment stimulation if the goal of environmental regulation is not only the protection of the environment, but also the compatibility with economic goals. This thesis also provides new insights into the role of energy market developments for the economy. In this respect, the relevance of the EU carbon market for the financial market performance of European electricity generators is shown. Besides, this thesis particularly demonstrates the paramount importance of oil market developments for the economy as a whole. It suggests that amongst all natural resources, oil is the most relevant one to the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. It is also shown that besides oil prices, oil volatility plays an important role for stock market development. Finally, the thesis highlights the relevance of oil market developments to the overall economy, in showing that unemployment in Germany is strongly affected by oil price shocks. In this respect, it also opposes claims that the

  15. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specifi cation search

    OpenAIRE

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    2010-01-01

    We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and deterministic trends. In particular, we formulate autoregressive models with stochastic trends components and decide on whether a specific feature of the series, i.e. the underlying level and/or the rate...

  16. Global economics and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, R.D.; Hamilton, E.

    1991-01-01

    The rampant destruction of the rural tropics the earth's most fertile source of life will continue unchecked unless a global bargain can be reached between the capital-rich North and the economically destitute South. This report presents the findings of a colloquium sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and the World Resources Institute, and assesses the prospects for a global policy for sustainable growth in the Third World. It reviews how the North constrains the development of such a policy by its actions in the areas of international trade, public and private investment, and debt and recommends new efforts to foster mutual cooperation. It also outlines a series of creative recommendations from the colloquium's international and multidisciplinary panel of experts. Offering an agenda for the June 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), this report sets the stage for one of the most important global challenges of the coming decade

  17. ECONOMIC COMPETTION ENVIRONMENT IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMILIA UNGUREANU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available For realizing the paper “Economic Competition Environment in Romania”, I considered the analysis of antitrust norms appliance, the economic concentration control and the control of state aids in Romania. In 2010, the Council activity was impacted by a series of important changes from a legislative point of view, but also by the internal organization. In his modified form, the Competition Law and the new adopted secondary legislation offers to the Competition Council the necessary instruments for efficiently acting in ensuring the market functionality on competition bases. In 2011, the competition authority efforts will be focused on improving the appliance of completion legislation, mainly, by concentrating the analysis on very big violation of law and by finalizing the investigations older than 3 years, on the intensifying the cooperation with implied institutions from the state aid domain, but also on implementing some internal measures, designed to develop the administrative capacity of the institution. The legislative modifications of the Council expected since 2010 for 2011, have like final output the adoption of a new variant of Competition Law 211/1996, some of the adjustments being made since last year, by O.U.G. no. 75/2010, and in 2011 this was approved.

  18. Energy, economics, environment and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    The pressure on the Earth's environment and resources is the ultimate result of population growth and the only humane means available for stabilizing world population is to increase per capita living standards in the developing countries. However, this will require a very large increase in global energy consumption. If, as at present, the energy demand is met largely by fossil fuels, atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 will rise rapidly. Until the end of the century, and perhaps beyond it, any actions to control CO 2 emissions will be taken for precautionary reasons alone, because no reliable basis will exist for predicting their global (or regional) impact on the climate. The sustainability of the natural environment is also under threat from human activities such as the clearing of forests for crop-growing and grazing. The resulting elimination of habitats for, and genetic variability in, the victor is as serious a concern as global warming. The economic and social consequences of rigidly curtailing the growth of energy use in developed countries would be severe, and in developing countries extreme; even then greenhouse gas build up could only be slowed not prevented. On the other hand, a wealthier world would be more able to bear the financial burden of protecting biodiversity. It is concluded that since the developed countries on whom the main cost would have to fall, adequate effort into both biodiversity and greenhouse gas reduction, biodiversity must take procedence. (1 figure, 2 tables). (UK)

  19. Recursive utility in a Markov environment with stochastic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Lars Peter; Scheinkman, José A

    2012-07-24

    Recursive utility models that feature investor concerns about the intertemporal composition of risk are used extensively in applied research in macroeconomics and asset pricing. These models represent preferences as the solution to a nonlinear forward-looking difference equation with a terminal condition. In this paper we study infinite-horizon specifications of this difference equation in the context of a Markov environment. We establish a connection between the solution to this equation and to an arguably simpler Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue equation of the type that occurs in the study of large deviations for Markov processes. By exploiting this connection, we establish existence and uniqueness results. Moreover, we explore a substantive link between large deviation bounds for tail events for stochastic consumption growth and preferences induced by recursive utility.

  20. Economic policy optimization based on both one stochastic model and the parametric control theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashimov, Abdykappar; Borovskiy, Yuriy; Onalbekov, Mukhit

    2016-06-01

    A nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions is developed to describe two interacting national economies in the environment of the rest of the world. Parameters of nonlinear model are estimated based on its log-linearization by the Bayesian approach. The nonlinear model is verified by retroprognosis, estimation of stability indicators of mappings specified by the model, and estimation the degree of coincidence for results of internal and external shocks' effects on macroeconomic indicators on the basis of the estimated nonlinear model and its log-linearization. On the base of the nonlinear model, the parametric control problems of economic growth and volatility of macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan are formulated and solved for two exchange rate regimes (free floating and managed floating exchange rates)

  1. Stochastics of environmental and financial economics Centre of Advanced Study, Oslo, Norway, 2014-2015

    CERN Document Server

    Nunno, Giulia

    2016-01-01

    These Proceedings offer a selection of peer-reviewed research and survey papers by some of the foremost international researchers in the fields of finance, energy, stochastics and risk, who present their latest findings on topical problems. The papers cover the areas of stochastic modeling in energy and financial markets; risk management with environmental factors from a stochastic control perspective; and valuation and hedging of derivatives in markets dominated by renewables, all of which further develop the theory of stochastic analysis and mathematical finance. The papers were presented at the first conference on “Stochastics of Environmental and Financial Economics (SEFE)”, being part of the activity in the SEFE research group of the Centre of Advanced Study (CAS) at the Academy of Sciences in Oslo, Norway during the 2014/2015 academic year.

  2. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    We extend a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. In particular, we focus on autoregressive models with possibly time-varying intercept and slope and decide on ...

  3. Economic measurement of environment damages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krawiec, F.

    1980-05-01

    The densities, energy consumption, and economic development of the increasing population exacerbate environmental degradation. Air and water pollution is a major environmental problem affecting life and health, outdoor recreation, household soiling, vegetation, materials, and production. The literature review indicated that numerous studies have assessed the physical and monetary damage to populations at risk from excessive concentrations of major air and water pollutants-sulfur dioxide, total suspended particulate matter, oxidants, and carbon monoxide in air; and nutrients, oil, pesticides, and toxic metals and others in water. The measurement of the damages was one of the most controversial issues in pollution abatement. The methods that have been used to estimate the societal value of pollution abatement are: (1) chain of effects, (2) market approaches, and (3) surveys. National gross damages of air pollution of $20.2 billion and of water pollution of $11.1 billion for 1973 are substantial. These best estimates, updated for the economic and demographic conditions, could provide acceptable control totals for estimating and predicting benefits and costs of abating air and water pollution emissions. The major issues to be resolved are: (1) lack of available noneconomic data, (2) theoretical and empirical difficulties of placing a value on human life and health and on benefits such as aesthetics, and (3) lack of available demographic and economic data.

  4. Efficacy of Stochastic Vestibular Stimulation to Improve Locomotor Performance in a Discordant Sensory Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temple, D. R.; De Dios, Y. E.; Layne, C. S.; Bloomberg, J. J.; Mulavara, A. P.

    2016-01-01

    Astronauts exposed to microgravity face sensorimotor challenges incurred when readapting to a gravitational environment. Sensorimotor Adaptability (SA) training has been proposed as a countermeasure to improve locomotor performance during re-adaptation, and it is suggested that the benefits of SA training may be further enhanced by improving detection of weak sensory signals via mechanisms such as stochastic resonance when a non-zero level of stochastic white noise based electrical stimulation is applied to the vestibular system (stochastic vestibular stimulation, SVS). The purpose of this study was to test the efficacy of using SVS to improve short-term adaptation in a sensory discordant environment during performance of a locomotor task.

  5. A Decomposition Algorithm for Mean-Variance Economic Model Predictive Control of Stochastic Linear Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Dammann, Bernd; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a decomposition algorithm for solving the optimal control problem (OCP) that arises in Mean-Variance Economic Model Predictive Control of stochastic linear systems. The algorithm applies the alternating direction method of multipliers to a reformulation of the OCP...

  6. Persistence and extinction of a stochastic single-species model under regime switching in a polluted environment II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Wang, Ke

    2010-12-07

    This is a continuation of our paper [Liu, M., Wang, K., 2010. Persistence and extinction of a stochastic single-species model under regime switching in a polluted environment, J. Theor. Biol. 264, 934-944]. Taking both white noise and colored noise into account, a stochastic single-species model under regime switching in a polluted environment is studied. Sufficient conditions for extinction, stochastic nonpersistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is obtained. The results show that a different type of noise has a different effect on the survival results. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Consumption and environment - ecological economic perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2006-01-01

    motivation for dealing with consumption in ecological economics is presented. Basically, ecological economists agree that there are limits to the material growth of the economy, and that these limits have already been reached or exceeded. As there is an ethical challenge to increase environmental space......Consumption and environment – ecological economic perspectives Summary Research on issues related to consumption and environment has grown rapidly since the middle of the 1990s, and several disciplines as well as transdisciplinary fields have contributed to this development. The present papers...... constitute a small part of this wave of interest, and they are mostly framed as belonging to ecological economics. The collection starts with an introduction to the field of consumption research within ecological economics and then follows a series of papers on more specific issues. The introductionary...

  8. Stochastic bounded consensus of second-order multi-agent systems in noisy environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Hong-Wei; Deng Fei-Qi

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the stochastic bounded consensus of leader-following second-order multi-agent systems in a noisy environment. It is assumed that each agent received the information of its neighbors corrupted by noises and time delays. Based on the graph theory, stochastic tools, and the Lyapunov function method, we derive the sufficient conditions under which the systems would reach stochastic bounded consensus in mean square with the protocol we designed. Finally, a numerical simulation is illustrated to check the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. (paper)

  9. Facilitated diffusion in a crowded environment: from kinetics to stochastics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meroz, Yasmine; Klafter, Joseph; Eliazar, Iddo

    2009-01-01

    Facilitated diffusion is a fundamental search process used to describe the problem of a searcher protein finding a specific target site over a very large DNA strand. In recent years macromolecular crowding has been recognized to affect this search process. In this paper, we bridge between two different modelling methodologies of facilitated diffusion: the physics-oriented kinetic approach, which yields the reaction rate of the search process, and the probability-oriented stochastic approach, which yields the probability distribution of the search duration. We translate the former approach to the latter, ascertaining that the two approaches yield coinciding results, both with and without macromolecular crowding. We further show that the stochastic approach markedly generalizes the kinetic approach by accommodating a vast array of search mechanisms, including mechanisms having no reaction rates, and thus being beyond the realm of the kinetic approach.

  10. Stochasticity in economic losses increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Miguel; Placì, Sarah; Wedekind, Claus

    2015-12-14

    Recent theory predicts harsh and stochastic conditions to generally promote the evolution of cooperation. Here, we test experimentally whether stochasticity in economic losses also affects the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity, a type of cooperation that is very typical for humans. We used a repeated helping game with observers. One subject (the "Unlucky") lost some money, another one (the "Passer-by") could reduce this loss by accepting a cost to herself, thereby building up a reputation that could be used by others in later interactions. The losses were either stable or stochastic, but the average loss over time and the average efficiency gains of helping were kept constant in both treatments. We found that players with a reputation of being generous were generally more likely to receive help by others, such that investing into a good reputation generated long-term benefits that compensated for the immediate costs of helping. Helping frequencies were similar in both treatments, but players with a reputation to be selfish lost more resources under stochastic conditions. Hence, returns on investment were steeper when losses varied than when they did not. We conclude that this type of stochasticity increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

  11. Adaptive behavior in economic and social environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droste, E.J.R.

    1999-01-01

    Various economic and social environments feature repeated interaction of decision-makers. Firms compete for market shares continually, politicians enter into debates almost every day, and friends communicate regularly. When decision-makers accumulate experience and collect new information each time

  12. Climate Change and Integrodifference Equations in a Stochastic Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouhours, Juliette; Lewis, Mark A

    2016-09-01

    Climate change impacts population distributions, forcing some species to migrate poleward if they are to survive and keep up with the suitable habitat that is shifting with the temperature isoclines. Previous studies have analysed whether populations have the capacity to keep up with shifting temperature isoclines, and have mathematically determined the combination of growth and dispersal that is needed to achieve this. However, the rate of isocline movement can be highly variable, with much uncertainty associated with yearly shifts. The same is true for population growth rates. Growth rates can be variable and uncertain, even within suitable habitats for growth. In this paper, we reanalyse the question of population persistence in the context of the uncertainty and variability in isocline shifts and rates of growth. Specifically, we employ a stochastic integrodifference equation model on a patch of suitable habitat that shifts poleward at a random rate. We derive a metric describing the asymptotic growth rate of the linearised operator of the stochastic model. This metric yields a threshold criterion for population persistence. We demonstrate that the variability in the yearly shift and in the growth rate has a significant negative effect on the persistence in the sense that it decreases the threshold criterion for population persistence. Mathematically, we show how the persistence metric can be connected to the principal eigenvalue problem for a related integral operator, at least for the case where isocline shifting speed is deterministic. Analysis of dynamics for the case where the dispersal kernel is Gaussian leads to the existence of a critical shifting speed, above which the population will go extinct, and below which the population will persist. This leads to clear bounds on rate of environmental change if the population is to persist. Finally, we illustrate our different results for butterfly population using numerical simulations and demonstrate how

  13. Stochastic interest rates in the analysis of energy investments: Implications on economic performance and sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tolis, Athanasios; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias; Doukelis, Aggelos

    2010-01-01

    A systematic impact assessment of stochastic interest and inflation rates on the analysis of energy investments is presented. A real-options algorithm has been created for this task. Constant interest rates incorporating high risk premium have been extensively used for economic calculations, within the framework of traditional direct cash flow methods, thus favouring immediate, irreversible investments in the expense of, sometimes, insubstantially low anticipated yields. In this article, not only incomes and expenses but also interest and inflation rates are considered stochastically evolving according to specific probabilistic models. The numerical experiments indicated that the stochastic interest rate forecasts fluctuate in such low levels that may signal delayed investment entry in favour of higher expected yields. The implementation of stochastically evolving interest rates in energy investment analysis may have a controversial effect on sustainability. Displacements of inefficient plants may be significantly delayed, thus prolonging high CO 2 emission rates. Under the current CO 2 allowance prices or their medium-term forecasts, this situation may not be improved and flexible policy interventions may be necessitated. (author)

  14. Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

    2007-01-01

    In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

  15. Optimal management strategies in variable environments: Stochastic optimal control methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.

    1985-01-01

    Dynamic optimization was used to investigate the optimal defoliation of salt desert shrubs in north-western Utah. Management was formulated in the context of optimal stochastic control theory, with objective functions composed of discounted or time-averaged biomass yields. Climatic variability and community patterns of salt desert shrublands make the application of stochastic optimal control both feasible and necessary. A primary production model was used to simulate shrub responses and harvest yields under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The simulation results then were used in an optimization model to determine optimal defoliation strategies. The latter model encodes an algorithm for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Three questions were addressed: (i) What effect do changes in weather patterns have on optimal management strategies? (ii) What effect does the discounting of future returns have? (iii) How do the optimal strategies perform relative to certain fixed defoliation strategies? An analysis was performed for the three shrub species, winterfat (Ceratoides lanata), shadscale (Atriplex confertifolia) and big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). In general, the results indicate substantial differences among species in optimal control strategies, which are associated with differences in physiological and morphological characteristics. Optimal policies for big sagebrush varied less with variation in climate, reserve levels and discount rates than did either shadscale or winterfat. This was attributed primarily to the overwintering of photosynthetically active tissue and to metabolic activity early in the growing season. Optimal defoliation of shadscale and winterfat generally was more responsive to differences in plant vigor and climate, reflecting the sensitivity of these species to utilization and replenishment of carbohydrate reserves. Similarities could be seen in the influence of both

  16. Persistence and extinction of a stochastic single-specie model under regime switching in a polluted environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Wang, Ke

    2010-06-07

    A new single-species model disturbed by both white noise and colored noise in a polluted environment is developed and analyzed. Sufficient criteria for extinction, stochastic nonpersistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence of the species are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence in the mean and extinction is obtained. The results show that both white and colored environmental noises have sufficient effect to the survival results. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  18. Stochastic volatility and stochastic leverage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veraart, Almut; Veraart, Luitgard A. M.

    This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...... treatment of stochastic leverage and propose to model the stochastic leverage effect explicitly, e.g. by means of a linear transformation of a Jacobi process. Such models are both analytically tractable and allow for a direct economic interpretation. In particular, we propose two new stochastic volatility...... models which allow for a stochastic leverage effect: the generalised Heston model and the generalised Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard model. We investigate the impact of a stochastic leverage effect in the risk neutral world by focusing on implied volatilities generated by option prices derived from our new...

  19. A Stochastic Model of Plausibility in Live Virtual Constructive Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-14

    from the model parameters that are inputs to the computer model ( mathematical model) but whose exact values are unknown to experimentalists and...Environments Jeremy R. Millar Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Computer Sciences Commons This Dissertation...25 3.3 Computing Plausibility Exceedance Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 IV

  20. Investment in different sized SMRs: Economic evaluation of stochastic scenarios by INCAS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barenghi, S.; Boarin, S.; Ricotti, M. E. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, CeSNEF-Nuclear Engineering Div., via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    Small Modular LWR concepts are being developed and proposed to investors worldwide. They capitalize on operating track record of GEN II LWR, while introducing innovative design enhancements allowed by smaller size and additional benefits from the higher degree of modularization and from deployment of multiple units on the same site. (i.e. 'Economy of Multiple' paradigm) Nevertheless Small Modular Reactors pay for a dis-economy of scale that represents a relevant penalty on a capital intensive investment. Investors in the nuclear power generation industry face a very high financial risk, due to high capital commitment and exceptionally long pay-back time. Investment risk arise from uncertainty that affects scenario conditions over such a long time horizon. Risk aversion is increased by current adverse conditions of financial markets and general economic downturn, as is the case nowadays. This work investigates both the investment profitability and risk of alternative investments in a single Large Reactor or in multiple SMR of different sizes drawing information from project's Internal Rate of Return stochastic distribution. multiple SMR deployment on a single site with total power installed, equivalent to a single LR. Uncertain scenario conditions and stochastic input assumptions are included in the analysis, representing investment uncertainty and risk. Results show that, despite the combination of much larger number of stochastic variables in SMR fleets, uncertainty of project profitability is not increased, as compared to LR: SMR have features able to smooth IRR variance and control investment risk. Despite dis-economy of scale, SMR represent a limited capital commitment and a scalable investment option that meet investors' interest, even in developed and mature markets, that are traditional marketplace for LR. (authors)

  1. Investment in different sized SMRs: Economic evaluation of stochastic scenarios by INCAS code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barenghi, S.; Boarin, S.; Ricotti, M. E.

    2012-01-01

    Small Modular LWR concepts are being developed and proposed to investors worldwide. They capitalize on operating track record of GEN II LWR, while introducing innovative design enhancements allowed by smaller size and additional benefits from the higher degree of modularization and from deployment of multiple units on the same site. (i.e. 'Economy of Multiple' paradigm) Nevertheless Small Modular Reactors pay for a dis-economy of scale that represents a relevant penalty on a capital intensive investment. Investors in the nuclear power generation industry face a very high financial risk, due to high capital commitment and exceptionally long pay-back time. Investment risk arise from uncertainty that affects scenario conditions over such a long time horizon. Risk aversion is increased by current adverse conditions of financial markets and general economic downturn, as is the case nowadays. This work investigates both the investment profitability and risk of alternative investments in a single Large Reactor or in multiple SMR of different sizes drawing information from project's Internal Rate of Return stochastic distribution. multiple SMR deployment on a single site with total power installed, equivalent to a single LR. Uncertain scenario conditions and stochastic input assumptions are included in the analysis, representing investment uncertainty and risk. Results show that, despite the combination of much larger number of stochastic variables in SMR fleets, uncertainty of project profitability is not increased, as compared to LR: SMR have features able to smooth IRR variance and control investment risk. Despite dis-economy of scale, SMR represent a limited capital commitment and a scalable investment option that meet investors' interest, even in developed and mature markets, that are traditional marketplace for LR. (authors)

  2. Techno-economic simulation data based deterministic and stochastic for product engineering research and development BATAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrus Zacharias; Abdul Jami

    2010-01-01

    Researches conducted by Batan's researchers have resulted in a number competences that can be used to produce goods and services, which will be applied to industrial sector. However, there are difficulties how to convey and utilize the R and D products into industrial sector. Evaluation results show that each research result should be completed with techno-economy analysis to obtain the feasibility of a product for industry. Further analysis on multy-product concept, in which one business can produce many main products, will be done. For this purpose, a software package simulating techno-economy I economic feasibility which uses deterministic and stochastic data (Monte Carlo method) was been carried out for multi-product including side product. The programming language used in Visual Basic Studio Net 2003 and SQL as data base processing software. This software applied sensitivity test to identify which investment criteria is sensitive for the prospective businesses. Performance test (trial test) has been conducted and the results are in line with the design requirement, such as investment feasibility and sensitivity displayed deterministically and stochastically. These result can be interpreted very well to support business decision. Validation has been performed using Microsoft Excel (for single product). The result of the trial test and validation show that this package is suitable for demands and is ready for use. (author)

  3. Fuzzy Stochastic Optimal Guaranteed Cost Control of Bio-Economic Singular Markovian Jump Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Zhang, Qingling; Zhu, Baoyan

    2015-11-01

    This paper establishes a bio-economic singular Markovian jump model by considering the price of the commodity as a Markov chain. The controller is designed for this system such that its biomass achieves the specified range with the least cost in a finite-time. Firstly, this system is described by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. Secondly, a new design method of fuzzy state-feedback controllers is presented to ensure not only the regularity, nonimpulse, and stochastic singular finite-time boundedness of this kind of systems, but also an upper bound achieved for the cost function in the form of strict linear matrix inequalities. Finally, two examples including a practical example of eel seedling breeding are given to illustrate the merit and usability of the approach proposed in this paper.

  4. ENVIRONMENT: a computational platform to stochastically simulate reacting and self-reproducing lipid compartments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavelli, Fabio; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa

    2010-09-01

    'ENVIRONMENT' is a computational platform that has been developed in the last few years with the aim to simulate stochastically the dynamics and stability of chemically reacting protocellular systems. Here we present and describe some of its main features, showing how the stochastic kinetics approach can be applied to study the time evolution of reaction networks in heterogeneous conditions, particularly when supramolecular lipid structures (micelles, vesicles, etc) coexist with aqueous domains. These conditions are of special relevance to understand the origins of cellular, self-reproducing compartments, in the context of prebiotic chemistry and evolution. We contrast our simulation results with real lab experiments, with the aim to bring together theoretical and experimental research on protocell and minimal artificial cell systems.

  5. Economic consequences of paratuberculosis control in dairy cattle: A stochastic modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R L; Al-Mamun, M A; Gröhn, Y T

    2017-03-01

    The cost of paratuberculosis to dairy herds, through decreased milk production, early culling, and poor reproductive performance, has been well-studied. The benefit of control programs, however, has been debated. A recent stochastic compartmental model for paratuberculosis transmission in US dairy herds was modified to predict herd net present value (NPV) over 25 years in herds of 100 and 1000 dairy cattle with endemic paratuberculosis at initial prevalence of 10% and 20%. Control programs were designed by combining 5 tests (none, fecal culture, ELISA, PCR, or calf testing), 3 test-related culling strategies (all test-positive, high-positive, or repeated positive), 2 test frequencies (annual and biannual), 3 hygiene levels (standard, moderate, or improved), and 2 cessation decisions (testing ceased after 5 negative whole-herd tests or testing continued). Stochastic dominance was determined for each herd scenario; no control program was fully dominant for maximizing herd NPV in any scenario. Use of the ELISA test was generally preferred in all scenarios, but no paratuberculosis control was highly preferred for the small herd with 10% initial prevalence and was frequently preferred in other herd scenarios. Based on their effect on paratuberculosis alone, hygiene improvements were not found to be as cost-effective as test-and-cull strategies in most circumstances. Global sensitivity analysis found that economic parameters, such as the price of milk, had more influence on NPV than control program-related parameters. We conclude that paratuberculosis control can be cost effective, and multiple control programs can be applied for equivalent economic results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A fuzzy stochastic framework for managing hydro-environmental and socio-economic interactions under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2014-05-01

    An amplified interconnectedness between a hydro-environmental and socio-economic system brings about profound challenges of water management decision making. In this contribution, we present a fuzzy stochastic approach to solve a set of decision making problems, which involve hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated criteria subjected to uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed methodological framework combines objective and subjective criteria in a decision making procedure for obtaining an acceptable ranking in water resources management alternatives under different type of uncertainty (subjective/objective) and heterogeneous information (quantitative/qualitative) simultaneously. The first step of the proposed approach involves evaluating the performance of alternatives with respect to different types of criteria. The ratings of alternatives with respect to objective and subjective criteria are evaluated by simulation-based optimization and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers, respectively. Subjective and objective uncertainties related to the input information are handled through linking fuzziness and randomness together. Fuzzy decision making helps entail the linguistic uncertainty and a Monte Carlo simulation process is used to map stochastic uncertainty. With this framework, the overall performance of each alternative is calculated using an Order Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregation operator accounting for decision makers' experience and opinions. Finally, ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management alternatives. This has been done on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an acceptable ranking and mean difference in total performance for the pair of management alternatives. The proposed methodology is tested in a real-world hydrosystem, to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal aquifer system affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater

  7. Stochastic modelling to assess economic effects of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steeneveld, Wilma; Swinkels, Jantijn; Hogeveen, Henk

    2007-11-01

    Chronic subclinical mastitis is usually not treated during the lactation. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis. Factors in the model included the probability of cure after treatment, probability of the cow becoming clinically diseased, transmission of infection to other cows, and physiological effects of the infection. Using basic input parameters for Dutch circumstances, the average economic costs per cow of an untreated chronic subclinical mastitis case caused by Str. uberis in a single quarter from day of diagnosis onwards was euro109. With treatment, the average costs were higher (euro120). Thus, for the average cow, treatment was not efficient economically. However, the risk of high costs was much higher when cows with chronic subclinical mastitis were not treated. A sensitivity analysis showed that profitability of treatment of chronic subclinical Str. uberis mastitis depended on farm-specific factors (such as economic value of discarded milk) and cow-specific factors (such as day of diagnosis, duration of infection, amount of transmission to other cows and cure rate). Therefore, herd level protocols are not sufficient and decision support should be cow specific. Given the importance of cow-specific factors, information from the current model could be applied to automatic decision support systems.

  8. Evaluating Economic Alternatives for Wood Energy Supply Based on Stochastic Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulises Flores Hernández

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Productive forests, as a major source of biomass, represent an important pre-requisite for the development of a bio-economy. In this respect, assessments of biomass availability, efficiency of forest management, forest operations, and economic feasibility are essential. This is certainly the case for Mexico, a country with an increasing energy demand and a considerable potential for sustainable forest utilization. Hence, this paper focuses on analyzing economic alternatives for the Mexican bioenergy supply based on the costs and revenues of utilizing woody biomass residues. With a regional spatial approach, harvesting and transportation costs of utilizing selected biomass residues were stochastically calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. A sensitivity analysis of percentage variation of the most probable estimate in relation to the parameters price and cost for one alternative using net future analysis was conducted. Based on the results for the northern region, a 10% reduction of the transportation cost would reduce overall supply cost, resulting in a total revenue of 13.69 USD/m3 and 0.75 USD/m3 for harvesting residues and non-extracted stand residues, respectively. For the central south region, it is estimated that a contribution of 16.53 USD/m3 from 2013 and a total revenue of 33.00 USD/m3 in 2030 from sawmill residues will improve the value chain. The given approach and outputs provide the basis for the decision-making process regarding forest utilization towards energy generation based on economic indicators.

  9. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  10. Stochastic Economic Dispatch with Wind using Versatile Probability Distribution and L-BFGS-B Based Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Shaojun; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wu, Qiuwei

    2018-01-01

    This paper focuses on economic dispatch (ED) in power systems with intermittent wind power, which is a very critical issue in future power systems. A stochastic ED problem is formed based on the recently proposed versatile probability distribution (VPD) of wind power. The problem is then analyzed...

  11. A Q-Learning Approach to Flocking With UAVs in a Stochastic Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Shao-Ming; Givigi, Sidney N

    2017-01-01

    In the past two decades, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have demonstrated their efficacy in supporting both military and civilian applications, where tasks can be dull, dirty, dangerous, or simply too costly with conventional methods. Many of the applications contain tasks that can be executed in parallel, hence the natural progression is to deploy multiple UAVs working together as a force multiplier. However, to do so requires autonomous coordination among the UAVs, similar to swarming behaviors seen in animals and insects. This paper looks at flocking with small fixed-wing UAVs in the context of a model-free reinforcement learning problem. In particular, Peng's Q(λ) with a variable learning rate is employed by the followers to learn a control policy that facilitates flocking in a leader-follower topology. The problem is structured as a Markov decision process, where the agents are modeled as small fixed-wing UAVs that experience stochasticity due to disturbances such as winds and control noises, as well as weight and balance issues. Learned policies are compared to ones solved using stochastic optimal control (i.e., dynamic programming) by evaluating the average cost incurred during flight according to a cost function. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed learning approach at enabling agents to learn how to flock in a leader-follower topology, while operating in a nonstationary stochastic environment.

  12. Distance Determination Method for Normally Distributed Obstacle Avoidance of Mobile Robots in Stochastic Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhong Noh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Obstacle avoidance methods require knowledge of the distance between a mobile robot and obstacles in the environment. However, in stochastic environments, distance determination is difficult because objects have position uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to determine the distance between a robot and obstacles represented by probability distributions. Distance determination for obstacle avoidance should consider position uncertainty, computational cost and collision probability. The proposed method considers all of these conditions, unlike conventional methods. It determines the obstacle region using the collision probability density threshold. Furthermore, it defines a minimum distance function to the boundary of the obstacle region with a Lagrange multiplier method. Finally, it computes the distance numerically. Simulations were executed in order to compare the performance of the distance determination methods. Our method demonstrated a faster and more accurate performance than conventional methods. It may help overcome position uncertainty issues pertaining to obstacle avoidance, such as low accuracy sensors, environments with poor visibility or unpredictable obstacle motion.

  13. NATURE OF BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatka Kushelieva

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The role and importance of the factors influencing the business environment in the economic relations of enterprises in national and international aspect are discussed. Global interdependencies have been explored and results have been drawn on the impact of international political and economic changes on the business environment of national and supranational companies.

  14. Economics for the Environment: Research Capacity Building in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Economics for the Environment: Research Capacity Building in South Asia. This project will enhance environmental economics research capacity in South Asia through a program of research grants, training, and networking. It provides funds to the South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics ...

  15. Persistence and extinction of a stochastic single-species population model in a polluted environment with impulsive toxicant input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic single-species population system in a polluted environment with impulsive toxicant input is proposed and studied. Sufficient conditions for extinction, non-persistence in the mean, strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence of the population are established. The threshold between strong persistence in the mean and extinction is obtained. Some simulation figures are introduced to illustrate the main results.

  16. Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, P F; Bokkers, E A M; van Middelaar, C E; Hogeveen, H; de Boer, I J M

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in dairy cows. This metabolic disorder occurs in the period around calving and is associated with an increased risk of other diseases. Therefore, SCK affects farm productivity and profitability. Estimating the economic impact of SCK may make farmers more aware of this problem, and can improve their decision-making regarding interventions to reduce SCK. We developed a dynamic stochastic simulation model that enables estimating the economic impact of SCK and related diseases (i.e. mastitis, metritis, displaced abomasum, lameness and clinical ketosis) occurring during the first 30 days after calving. This model, which was applied to a typical Dutch dairy herd, groups cows according to their parity (1 to 5+), and simulates the dynamics of SCK and related diseases, and milk production per cow during one lactation. The economic impact of SCK and related diseases resulted from a reduced milk production, discarded milk, treatment costs, costs from a prolonged calving interval and removal (culling or dying) of cows. The total costs of SCK were €130 per case per year, with a range between €39 and €348 (5 to 95 percentiles). The total costs of SCK per case per year, moreover, increased from €83 per year in parity 1 to €175 in parity 3. Most cows with SCK, however, had SCK only (61%), and costs were €58 per case per year. Total costs of SCK per case per year resulted for 36% from a prolonged calving interval, 24% from reduced milk production, 19% from treatment, 14% from discarded milk and 6% from removal. Results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the disease incidence, removal risk, relations of SCK with other diseases and prices of milk resulted in a high variation of costs of SCK. The costs of SCK, therefore, might differ per farm because of farm-specific circumstances. Improving data collection on the incidence of SCK and related diseases, and on consequences of

  17. Discourse as none-economic business environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rittenhofer, Iris

    Theories on strategy development are read as cultural expressions. The focus is directed towards coporate enviornment as well as the relations between corporation and environment.......Theories on strategy development are read as cultural expressions. The focus is directed towards coporate enviornment as well as the relations between corporation and environment....

  18. Economics and environment: 1980's

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson, H.

    1981-01-01

    The 1980s can be used to design and invest in a balanced, renewable-resource socio-economy ad still provide satisfying work and life styles. The concepts of Keynesian economics need to be reexamined in light of energy and raw-materials scarcities. A new regenerative economy will have to be more labor-intensive and less centralized, shifting capital investment away from obsolescent to innovative technologies. The decade will see a painful victory of ecology over economics as payment for the social costs of past energy excesses comes due. (DCK)

  19. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  20. Highway Safety, Economic Behavior, and Driving Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Keeler, Theodore E.

    1991-01-01

    Economic analysis has enhanced our understanding of the efficacy of highway safety regulations. Specifically, a consumer-theoretic literature has developed on drivers' responses to regulations, based on ideas first set forth by Lester lave and W. E. Weber (1970) and more fully thought out by Sam Peltzman (1975). Meanwhile, an empirical literature has also developed, testing hypotheses relating to the effects on safety of speed limits, safety-device regulations, and alcohol policies, among oth...

  1. Coal, economic development and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tallboys, Richard.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the current importance of coal to the world's energy supply. It outlines its growing importance as a fuel for many developing economies around the world and for the most dynamic industrialised countries of Asia. It then refers to the key environmental issues that are involved in a growing worldwide use of coal and emphasises the role that coal will increasingly play in generating the electricity that accompanies an improving standard of living for the world's poor. Finally, the environmental consequences of economic development by and for those who want to live at a standard of living that Australians take for granted are discussed. 4 tabs

  2. Base metals in the new economic environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennon, J.

    2002-01-01

    The focus of this paper was on the demand side of the base metals industry. It is expected that in the next decade more than 50 per cent of global demand growth will come from China and other countries of the former Eastern block. Following the large decline in base metals demand in 2001, it is expected that a large growth in metals supply will be needed over the next decade and there is a real possibility that the mining industry will struggle to meet demand growth. While industry performance is usually driven by economic growth and its impact on metals demand, analysts realize that every cycle is different and it can be easily affected by unpredicted, economic and geopolitical events. The author suggests that the while next few years will be a period of slower growth in the traditional consuming countries, this will be offset by the significant rise in the importance of China and the possible resurgence in demand growth in the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The paper presented a brief historical overview of the different growth phases for metals over the past 50 years. Strong metal demand in the 1990s was driven by the telecommunications and computer revolutions. Stainless steel/nickel, zinc/galvanized applications and aluminium were used to save on maintenance costs and to improve energy efficiency. The paper also discussed the shifting pattern of copper and aluminium demand by decade. 2 tabs., 7 figs

  3. Informal sector, business environment and economic growth: A ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2012-12-01

    Informal sector, business environment and economic growth: A comparative analysis of West and Central Africa ... taxes, which undermines fair competition and puts formal enterprises at a disadvantage. ... Start Date. December 1, 2012 ...

  4. INTERRELATIONSHIP S BETWEEN HEALTH, ENVIRONMENT QUALITY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alassane Drabo

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the link between health indicators, environmental variables and economic development, and th e consequences of this relationship on economic convergence for a large sample of rich and poor countries. While in economic literature income and environment are seen to have an inverted-U shaped relationship (Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis, it is also well established that an improvement in environmental quality is positively related to health. Our study focuses on the implications of this relationship for economic convergence. In the early stage of economic development, the gain from income growth could be cancelled or mitigated by environmental degradation through populations' health (and other channels and create a vicious circle in economic activity unlike in developed countries. This in turn could slow down economic convergence. To empirically assess these issues, we proceeded to an econometric analysis through three equations: a growth equation, a health equation and an environment equation. We found that health is a channel through which environment impacts economic growth. When we take into account the effect of environment quality on economic growth, the speed of convergence tends to increase slightly. This shows that environmental quality could be considered as a constraint for economic convergence.

  5. Stochastic Signal Processing for Sound Environment System with Decibel Evaluation and Energy Observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira Ikuta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In real sound environment system, a specific signal shows various types of probability distribution, and the observation data are usually contaminated by external noise (e.g., background noise of non-Gaussian distribution type. Furthermore, there potentially exist various nonlinear correlations in addition to the linear correlation between input and output time series. Consequently, often the system input and output relationship in the real phenomenon cannot be represented by a simple model using only the linear correlation and lower order statistics. In this study, complex sound environment systems difficult to analyze by using usual structural method are considered. By introducing an estimation method of the system parameters reflecting correlation information for conditional probability distribution under existence of the external noise, a prediction method of output response probability for sound environment systems is theoretically proposed in a suitable form for the additive property of energy variable and the evaluation in decibel scale. The effectiveness of the proposed stochastic signal processing method is experimentally confirmed by applying it to the observed data in sound environment systems.

  6. A hybrid stochastic approach for self-location of wireless sensors in indoor environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloret, Jaime; Tomas, Jesus; Garcia, Miguel; Canovas, Alejandro

    2009-01-01

    Indoor location systems, especially those using wireless sensor networks, are used in many application areas. While the need for these systems is widely proven, there is a clear lack of accuracy. Many of the implemented applications have high errors in their location estimation because of the issues arising in the indoor environment. Two different approaches had been proposed using WLAN location systems: on the one hand, the so-called deductive methods take into account the physical properties of signal propagation. These systems require a propagation model, an environment map, and the position of the radio-stations. On the other hand, the so-called inductive methods require a previous training phase where the system learns the received signal strength (RSS) in each location. This phase can be very time consuming. This paper proposes a new stochastic approach which is based on a combination of deductive and inductive methods whereby wireless sensors could determine their positions using WLAN technology inside a floor of a building. Our goal is to reduce the training phase in an indoor environment, but, without an loss of precision. Finally, we compare the measurements taken using our proposed method in a real environment with the measurements taken by other developed systems. Comparisons between the proposed system and other hybrid methods are also provided.

  7. A Hybrid Stochastic Approach for Self-Location of Wireless Sensors in Indoor Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Canovas

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Indoor location systems, especially those using wireless sensor networks, are used in many application areas. While the need for these systems is widely proven, there is a clear lack of accuracy. Many of the implemented applications have high errors in their location estimation because of the issues arising in the indoor environment. Two different approaches had been proposed using WLAN location systems: on the one hand, the so-called deductive methods take into account the physical properties of signal propagation. These systems require a propagation model, an environment map, and the position of the radio-stations. On the other hand, the so-called inductive methods require a previous training phase where the system learns the received signal strength (RSS in each location. This phase can be very time consuming. This paper proposes a new stochastic approach which is based on a combination of deductive and inductive methods whereby wireless sensors could determine their positions using WLAN technology inside a floor of a building. Our goal is to reduce the training phase in an indoor environment, but, without an loss of precision. Finally, we compare the measurements taken using our proposed method in a real environment with the measurements taken by other developed systems. Comparisons between the proposed system and other hybrid methods are also provided.

  8. International symposium on energy, environment and economics: Transactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colville, E.J.

    1995-01-01

    The conference deals with a comprehensive range of topics on energy sources and technologies, the economic impacts of energy use and production, and environmental issues. The papers are grouped into chapters covering environmental policy, environment education, environment economics, new and renewable energy sources, utilities, electricity and planning software, domestic energy, commercial energy, heat pumps and cogeneration, and transport. A number of un-presented papers and abstracts of contributions are included. Relevant papers are individually indexed/abstracted. Tabs. figs., refs

  9. The Family Economic Environment as a Context for Children's Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farran, Dale Clark; Margolis, Lewis H.

    1987-01-01

    Longitudinally examines how the complexities of the family economic environment may affect children's health, behavior, and ideas about the world of work. Family economic factors considered include father's/mother's work status (especially parental unemployment); per-capita income; health insurance; father's job security; and satisfaction with…

  10. Bayesian estimation and entropy for economic dynamic stochastic models: An exploration of overconsumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argentiero, Amedeo; Bovi, Maurizio; Cerqueti, Roy

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines psycho-induced overconsumption in a dynamic stochastic context. As emphasized by well-established psychological results, these psycho-distortions derive from a decision making based on simple rules-of-thumb, not on analytically sounded optimizations. To our end, we therefore compare two New Keynesian models. The first is populated by optimizing Muth-rational agents and acts as the normative benchmark. The other is a “psycho-perturbed” version of the benchmark that allows for the potential presence of overoptimism and, hence, of overconsumption. The parameters of these models are estimated through a Bayesian-type procedure, and performances are evaluated by employing an entropy measure. Such methodologies are particularly appropriate here since they take in full consideration the complexity generated by the randomness of the considered systems. In particular, they let to derive a not negligible information on the size and on the cyclical properties of the biases. In line with cognitive psychology suggestions our evidence shows that the overoptimism/overconsumption is: widespread—it is detected in nation-wide data; persistent—it emerges in full-sample estimations; it moves according to the expected cyclical behavior—larger in booms, and it disappears in crises. Moreover, by taking into account the effect of these psycho-biases, the model fits actual data better than the benchmark. All considered, then, enhancing the existing literature our findings: i) sustain the importance of inserting psychological distortions in macroeconomic models and ii) underline that system dynamics and psycho biases have statistically significant and economically important connections.

  11. Energy: sources, economics and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.

    2003-01-01

    The demands of providing energy whilst reducing greenhouse gas emissions makes the use of nuclear power and hydroelectricity a practical alternative. The Australian government accepts that present global greenhouse gas emissions produce global warming. It is not apparent that any degree of global warming can be prevented by less than global elimination of greenhouse gas emissions or even that this will remove any such global warming which has already occurred. The evidence and references discussed also indicate that the effect of the total elimination of CO 2 emissions by Australia at the 2000 rate of 279.9 million tonnes will be overwhelmed by global levels and increases, for example the present emission of 3500 million tonnes by China at 2.8 tonnes per capita from 1250 billion people and the virtual certainty of its increase . It is therefore necessary to question whether a country like Australia is otherwise justified (unless nuclear power or other measures to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions are accepted worldwide) in adopting an) energy-generating systems intended to lead to its own elimination of CO 2 emissions if they create social, economic and resource costs (and possibly other environmental non-greenhouse gas problems) exceeding those of nuclear sources

  12. New Directions in the Economic Theory of the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carraro, Carlo; Siniscalco, Domenico

    1998-01-01

    This volume provides a broad survey of the recent developments in the new economics of the environment and reports the state of the art on a new set of environmental problems, analytical tools and economic policies. Throughout the volume environmental problems are analyzed in an open, generally noncompetitive economy with transnational or global externalities. The first part deals with the relationship between the environment, economic growth and technological innovation. The second part analyzes the optimal design of environmental taxation, while the third part considers the international dimension of environmental policy.

  13. The impact of the economic environment on financial reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Burcă

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial reporting represents a current issue of economic environment, given globalization and the recent economic crisis. Accounting -as profession - along with the investors and state institutions have started a comprehensive project of accounting convergence designed to improve the comparability of accounting information released by financial statements synthesis. The success of the project can only be provided by taking into account several constraints imposed by the economic environment, and not only. Therefore, attention must be paid to the voice of capital markets and large multinational corporations regarding the future development of financial reporting.

  14. Stochastic bio-economic modeling of mastitis in Ethiopian dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getaneh, Abraham Mekibeb; Mekonnen, Sefinew Alemu; Hogeveen, Henk

    2017-03-01

    Mastitis is an inflammation of the mammary gland that is considered to be one of the most frequent and costly diseases in the dairy industry. Also in Ethiopia, bovine mastitis is one of the most frequently encountered diseases of dairy cows. However, there was no study, so far, regarding the costs of clinical mastitis and only two studies were reported on costs of subclinical mastitis. Presenting an appropriate and complete study of the costs of mastitis will help farmers in making management decisions for mastitis control. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic effects of mastitis on Ethiopian market-oriented dairy farms. Market-oriented dairy farming is driven by making profits through selling milk in the market on a regular basis. A dynamic stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation model (bio-economic model) was developed taking into account both clinical and subclinical mastitis. Production losses, culling, veterinarian costs, treatment, discarded milk, and labour were the main cost factors which were modeled in this study. The annual incidence of clinical mastitis varied from 0 to 50% with a mean annual incidence of 21.6%, whereas the mean annual incidence of subclinical mastitis was 36.2% which varied between 0 and 75%. The total costs due to mastitis for a default farm size of 8 lactating cows were 6,709 ETB per year (838 ETB per cow per year). The costs varied considerably, with 5th and 95th percentiles of 109 ETB and 22,009 ETB, respectively. The factor most contributing to the total annual cost of mastitis was culling. On average a clinical case costs 3,631 ETB, varying from 0 to 12,401, whereas a sub clinical case costs 147 ETB, varying from 0 to 412. The sensitivity analysis showed that the total costs at the farm level were most sensitive for variation in the probability of occurrence of clinical mastitis and the probability of culling. This study helps farmers to raise awareness about the actual costs of mastitis and motivate them to timely

  15. Economic Growth and the Environment. An empirical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Bruyn, S.M.

    1999-12-21

    A number of economists have claimed that economic growth benefits environmental quality as it raises political support and financial means for environmental policy measures. Since the early 1990s this view has increasingly been supported by empirical evidence that has challenged the traditional belief held by environmentalists that economic growth degrades the environment. This study investigates the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality and elaborates the question whether economic growth can be combined with a reduced demand for natural resources. Various hypotheses on this relationship are described and empirically tested for a number of indicators of environmental pressure. The outcome of the tests advocates the use of alternative models for estimation that alter conclusions about the relationship between economic growth and the environment and give insight into the driving forces of emission reduction in developed economies. refs.

  16. A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Houe, H.

    1995-01-01

    A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows...... and heifers. All discrete events at the cow level were triggered stochastically. Each cow and heifer was characterized by state variables such as stage of lactation, parity, oestrous status, decision for culling, milk production potential, and immune status for BVDV. The model was controlled by 170 decision...... variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied...

  17. Economic analysis of energy system considering the uncertainties of crude oil, natural gas and nuclear utilization employing stochastic dynamic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Keita; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents an economic rationality analysis of power generation mix by stochastic dynamic programming considering fuel price uncertainties and supply disruption risks such as import disruption and nuclear power plant shutdown risk. The situation revolving around Japan's energy security adopted the past statistics, it cannot be applied to a quantitative analysis of future uncertainties. Further objective and quantitative evaluation methods are required in order to analyze Japan's energy system and make it more resilient in sight of long time scale. In this paper, the authors firstly develop the cost minimization model considering oil and natural gas price respectively by stochastic dynamic programming. Then, the authors show several premises of model and an example of result with related to crude oil stockpile, liquefied natural gas stockpile and nuclear power plant capacity. (author)

  18. Optimizing Green Computing Awareness for Environmental Sustainability and Economic Security as a Stochastic Optimization Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Okewu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The role of automation in sustainable development is not in doubt. Computerization in particular has permeated every facet of human endeavour, enhancing the provision of information for decision-making that reduces cost of operation, promotes productivity and socioeconomic prosperity and cohesion. Hence, a new field called information and communication technology for development (ICT4D has emerged. Nonetheless, the need to ensure environmentally friendly computing has led to this research study with particular focus on green computing in Africa. This is against the backdrop that the continent is feared to suffer most from the vulnerability of climate change and the impact of environmental risk. Using Nigeria as a test case, this paper gauges the green computing awareness level of Africans via sample survey. It also attempts to institutionalize green computing maturity model with a view to optimizing the level of citizens awareness amid inherent uncertainties like low bandwidth, poor network and erratic power in an emerging African market. Consequently, we classified the problem as a stochastic optimization problem and applied metaheuristic search algorithm to determine the best sensitization strategy. Although there are alternative ways of promoting green computing education, the metaheuristic search we conducted indicated that an online real-time solution that not only drives but preserves timely conversations on electronic waste (e-waste management and energy saving techniques among the citizenry is cutting edge. The authors therefore reviewed literature, gathered requirements, modelled the proposed solution using Universal Modelling Language (UML and developed a prototype. The proposed solution is a web-based multi-tier e-Green computing system that educates computer users on innovative techniques of managing computers and accessories in an environmentally friendly way. We found out that such a real-time web-based interactive forum does not

  19. Stochastic and information-thermodynamic structures of population dynamics in a fluctuating environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Tetsuya J.; Sughiyama, Yuki

    2017-07-01

    Adaptation in a fluctuating environment is a process of fueling environmental information to gain fitness. Living systems have gradually developed strategies for adaptation from random and passive diversification of the phenotype to more proactive decision making, in which environmental information is sensed and exploited more actively and effectively. Understanding the fundamental relation between fitness and information is therefore crucial to clarify the limits and universal properties of adaptation. In this work, we elucidate the underlying stochastic and information-thermodynamic structure in this process, by deriving causal fluctuation relations (FRs) of fitness and information. Combined with a duality between phenotypic and environmental dynamics, the FRs reveal the limit of fitness gain, the relation of time reversibility with the achievability of the limit, and the possibility and condition for gaining excess fitness due to environmental fluctuation. The loss of fitness due to causal constraints and the limited capacity of real organisms is shown to be the difference between time-forward and time-backward path probabilities of phenotypic and environmental dynamics. Furthermore, the FRs generalize the concept of the evolutionary stable state (ESS) for fluctuating environment by giving the probability that the optimal strategy on average can be invaded by a suboptimal one owing to rare environmental fluctuation. These results clarify the information-thermodynamic structures in adaptation and evolution.

  20. (Ir)rational choices of humans, rhesus macaques, and capuchin monkeys in dynamic stochastic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watzek, Julia; Brosnan, Sarah F

    2018-05-28

    Human and animal decision-making is known to violate rational expectations in a variety of contexts. Previous models suggest that statistical structures of real-world environments can favor such seemingly irrational behavior, but this has not been tested empirically. We tested 16 capuchin monkeys, seven rhesus monkeys, and 30 humans in a computerized experiment that implemented such stochastic environments. Subjects chose from among up to three options of different value that disappeared and became available again with different probabilities. All species overwhelmingly chose transitively (A > B > C) in the control condition, where doing so maximized overall gain. Most subjects also adhered to transitivity in the test condition, where it was suboptimal, but ultimately led to negligible losses compared to the optimal, non-transitive strategy. We used a modelling approach to show that differences in temporal discounting may account for this pattern of choices on a proximate level. Specifically, when short- and long-term goals are valued similarly, near-optimal decision rules can map onto rational choice principles. Such cognitive shortcuts have been argued to have evolved to preserve mental resources without sacrificing good decision-making, and here we provide evidence that these heuristics can provide almost identical outcomes even in situations in which they lead to suboptimal choices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Managing flowback and produced water from hydraulic fracturing under stochastic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Sun, A. Y.; Duncan, I. J.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    A large volume of wastewater is being generated from hydraulic fracturing in shale gas plays, including flowback and produced water. The produced wastewater in terms of its quantity and quality has become one of the main environmental problems facing shale gas industries worldwide. Cost-effective planning and management of flowback and produced water is highly desirable. Careful choice of treatment, disposal, and reuse options can lower costs and reduce potential environmental impacts. To handle the recourse issue in decision-making, a two-stage stochastic management model is developed to provide optimal alternatives for fracturing wastewater management. The proposed model is capable of prompting corrective actions to allow decision makers to adjust the pre-defined management strategies. By using this two-stage model, potential penalties arising from decision infeasibility can be minimized. The applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated using a representative synthetic example, in which tradeoffs between economic and environmental goals are quantified. This approach can generate informed defensible decisions for shale gas wastewater management. In addition, probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties are effectively addressed.

  2. Hope for the environment: Free enterprise and other economic regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Baumol, William Jack

    1998-01-01

    This paper is the keynote speech delivered by Professor William Baumol at the First World Congress of Environmental Economists that was held in Venice on June 25-27, 1998. It analyses the situation of the environment under different economic regimes: the feudal society, Marxism and capitalism. After a brief description of the environmental situation in medieval England, in the Soviet Nations, in Eastern Europe, in China and in capitalist countries, the author concludes that each economic regi...

  3. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Parodi Trece

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are defined. These are economic indicators, related, that depend on domestic policy and exogenous shocks, defined as events that are out of the hands of economic policy designers, but that influence the three variables, such as the international financial crisis. Following it, the formalization through macroeconomic identities is made, in order to finally explain "how is the economy" through them; and the relationship between the internal to the external economic environment. Bringing the economy to business should be a priority in an increasingly integrated context, characterized by the fact that the positive and the negative of what happens in the world economy is transmitted through various channels, to companies located in different countries. Hence, companies should broaden their vision, as the economic environment does not only include what happens within the country, but the future of the world economy.

  4. Stochastic modelling to evaluate the economic efficiency of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, W.; Hogeveen, H.; Borne, van den B.H.P.; Swinkels, J.M.

    2006-01-01

    Treatment of subclinical mastitis is traditionally no common practice. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of

  5. Economic Reforms and Cost Efficiency of Coffee Farmers in Central Kenya: A Stochastic-Translog Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karanja, A.M.; Kuyvenhoven, A.; Moll, H.A.J.

    2007-01-01

    Work reported in this paper analyses the cost efficiency levels of small-holder coffee farmers in four districts in Central Province, Kenya. The level of efficiency is analysed using a stochastic cost frontier model based on household cross-sectional data collected in 1999 and 2000. The 200 surveyed

  6. Stochastic modelling to assess economic effects of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, W.; Swinkels, J.; Hogeveen, H.

    2007-01-01

    Chronic subclinical mastitis is usually not treated during the lactation. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of

  7. A stochastic simulator of a blood product donation environment with demand spikes and supply shocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ming-Wen; Reich, Nicholas G; Crawford, Stephen O; Brookmeyer, Ron; Louis, Thomas A; Nelson, Kenrad E

    2011-01-01

    The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an 8-week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during 1996-2005. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts.

  8. Control strategies for a stochastic model of host-parasite interaction in a seasonal environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Corral, A; López García, M

    2014-08-07

    We examine a nonlinear stochastic model for the parasite load of a single host over a predetermined time interval. We use nonhomogeneous Poisson processes to model the acquisition of parasites, the parasite-induced host mortality, the natural (no parasite-induced) host mortality, and the reproduction and death of parasites within the host. Algebraic results are first obtained on the age-dependent distribution of the number of parasites infesting the host at an arbitrary time t. The interest is in control strategies based on isolation of the host and the use of an anthelmintic at a certain intervention instant t0. This means that the host is free living in a seasonal environment, and it is transferred to a uninfected area at age t0. In the uninfected area, the host does not acquire new parasites, undergoes a treatment to decrease the parasite load, and its natural and parasite-induced mortality are altered. For a suitable selection of t0, we present two control criteria that appropriately balance effectiveness and cost of intervention. Our approach is based on simple probabilistic principles, and it allows us to examine seasonal fluctuations of gastrointestinal nematode burden in growing lambs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A Backward-Lagrangian-Stochastic Footprint Model for the Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenghao; Wang, Zhi-Hua; Yang, Jiachuan; Li, Qi

    2018-02-01

    Built terrains, with their complexity in morphology, high heterogeneity, and anthropogenic impact, impose substantial challenges in Earth-system modelling. In particular, estimation of the source areas and footprints of atmospheric measurements in cities requires realistic representation of the landscape characteristics and flow physics in urban areas, but has hitherto been heavily reliant on large-eddy simulations. In this study, we developed physical parametrization schemes for estimating urban footprints based on the backward-Lagrangian-stochastic algorithm, with the built environment represented by street canyons. The vertical profile of mean streamwise velocity is parametrized for the urban canopy and boundary layer. Flux footprints estimated by the proposed model show reasonable agreement with analytical predictions over flat surfaces without roughness elements, and with experimental observations over sparse plant canopies. Furthermore, comparisons of canyon flow and turbulence profiles and the subsequent footprints were made between the proposed model and large-eddy simulation data. The results suggest that the parametrized canyon wind and turbulence statistics, based on the simple similarity theory used, need to be further improved to yield more realistic urban footprint modelling.

  10. Day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering demand response of residential hybrid energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Yibo; Xu, Jian; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wei, Congying; Wang, Jing; Ke, Deping; Li, Xiong; Yang, Jun; Peng, Xiaotao; Tang, Bowen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Improving the utilization of wind power by the demand response of residential hybrid energy system. • An optimal scheduling of home energy management system integrating micro-CHP. • The scattered response capability of consumers is aggregated by demand bidding curve. • A stochastic day-ahead economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power. - Abstract: As the installed capacity of wind power is growing, the stochastic variability of wind power leads to the mismatch of demand and generated power. Employing the regulating capability of demand to improve the utilization of wind power has become a new research direction. Meanwhile, the micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) allows residential consumers to choose whether generating electricity by themselves or purchasing from the utility company, which forms a residential hybrid energy system. However, the impact of the demand response with hybrid energy system contained micro-CHP on the large-scale wind power utilization has not been analyzed quantitatively. This paper proposes an operation optimization model of the residential hybrid energy system based on price response, integrating micro-CHP and smart appliances intelligently. Moreover, a novel load aggregation method is adopted to centralize scattered response capability of residential load. At the power grid level, a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power is constructed. Furthermore, simulation is conducted respectively on the modified 6-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system. The results show that with the method proposed, the wind power curtailment of the system decreases by 78% in 6-bus system. In the meantime, the energy costs of residential consumers and the operating costs of the power system reduced by 10.7% and 11.7% in 118-bus system, respectively.

  11. e-Dairy: a dynamic and stochastic whole-farm model that predicts biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baudracco, J; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Holmes, C W; Comeron, E A; Macdonald, K A; Barry, T N

    2013-05-01

    A whole-farm, stochastic and dynamic simulation model was developed to predict biophysical and economic performance of grazing dairy systems. Several whole-farm models simulate grazing dairy systems, but most of them work at a herd level. This model, named e-Dairy, differs from the few models that work at an animal level, because it allows stochastic behaviour of the genetic merit of individual cows for several traits, namely, yields of milk, fat and protein, live weight (LW) and body condition score (BCS) within a whole-farm model. This model accounts for genetic differences between cows, is sensitive to genotype × environment interactions at an animal level and allows pasture growth, milk and supplements price to behave stochastically. The model includes an energy-based animal module that predicts intake at grazing, mammary gland functioning and body lipid change. This whole-farm model simulates a 365-day period for individual cows within a herd, with cow parameters randomly generated on the basis of the mean parameter values, defined as input and variance and co-variances from experimental data sets. The main inputs of e-Dairy are farm area, use of land, type of pasture, type of crops, monthly pasture growth rate, supplements offered, nutritional quality of feeds, herd description including herd size, age structure, calving pattern, BCS and LW at calving, probabilities of pregnancy, average genetic merit and economic values for items of income and costs. The model allows to set management policies to define: dry-off cows (ceasing of lactation), target pre- and post-grazing herbage mass and feed supplementation. The main outputs are herbage dry matter intake, annual pasture utilisation, milk yield, changes in BCS and LW, economic farm profit and return on assets. The model showed satisfactory accuracy of prediction when validated against two data sets from farmlet system experiments. Relative prediction errors were <10% for all variables, and concordance

  12. Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to provide a novel risk aversion model for long-term electric power system planning from the manager’s perspective with the consideration of various uncertainties. In the proposed method, interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming are integrated to deal with the technical, economics, and policy uncertainties. Moreover, downside risk theory is introduced to balance the trade-off between the profit and risk according to the decision-maker’s risk aversion attitude. To verify the effectiveness and practical application of this approach, an inexact stochastic risk aversion model is developed for regional electric system planning and management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The series of solutions provide the decision-maker with the optimal investment strategy and operation management under different future emission reduction scenarios and risk-aversion levels. The results indicated that pollution control devices are still the main measures to achieve the current mitigation goal and the adjustment of generation structure would play an important role in the future cleaner electricity system with the stricter environmental policy. In addition, the model can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision-makers identify desired energy structure adjustment and pollutants/carbon mitigation abatement policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints.

  13. Stochastic modelling to evaluate the economic efficiency of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis

    OpenAIRE

    Steeneveld, W.; Hogeveen, H.; Borne, van den, B.H.P.; Swinkels, J.M.

    2006-01-01

    Treatment of subclinical mastitis is traditionally no common practice. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis. Factors in the model include, amongst others, the probability of spontaneous cure, probability of the cow becoming clinically diseased, trans...

  14. New economic initiatives are designed to protect the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleet, B.; Fleet, N.S.

    1992-01-01

    The use of economic initiatives or economic instruments as an alternative to or as support for existing environmental legislation is reviewed. The most controversial area of economic incentives is the concept of creating a market in pollution rights. While emissions trading can enable economic growth in areas of high pollution, this approach is only marginally different than the traditional regulatory approach. Environmental economics is complex, with mixtures of private and public costs. Social costs include subsidies, waste treatment, landfill disposal costs, etc. More intangible social costs include public health costs and damage to the natural environment. Conventional economic approaches ignore most such social costs. Several European countries have started to develop a green gross national product (GNP) which sets out an alternative approach to the traditional measure of economic activity by subtracting a figure for harm to the environment from economic activity. This ambitious approach attempts to measure the costs of all toxic discharges along with the disappearance of plant and animal life and other environmental changes. A powerful new tool for the environmental manager is full cost accounting, which uses a long (10-20 y) window for projects, anticipates the impact of stricter discharge standards, and attempts to quantify a range of less tangible social costs elements, such as liability, improved environmental image, etc. Various strategies can be ranked on the basis of their future risk cost. The application of full cost accounting models, small business, computer models and expert systems, developing country debt-for-nature swaps, and environmental risk assessment are discussed. 12 refs

  15. Extinction of mammalian populations in conservation units of the Brazilian Cerrado by inbreeding depression in stochastic environments

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Marcel Müller Fernandes Pereira da; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre Felizola

    2008-01-01

    Despite methodological and theoretical advances in conservation genetics, data on genetic variation on broad regional spatial scales are still scarce, leading conservation planners to use general heuristic or simulation models for an integrated analysis of genetic, demographic and landscape parameters. Here, we extended previous results by evaluating spatial patterns of extinction by inbreeding depression under stochastic variation of environments for mammalian populations in 31 conservation ...

  16. ROMANIAN ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT – RESPONSIBILITY POLICIES AND BUSINESS ETHICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GHEORGHE Stefan

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Corporations regarded as socially responsible can benefit from a large satisfied clientage while the public image of social irresponsibility can end up with a boycott or any other hostile actions from costumers. Positive contributions to social development can be considered by companies as long term investments in the consolidation of a safer community life, better educated and much more equitable which corporations can benefit from by unfolding their activities in a more dynamic, stable and resourceful environment. These are serious economic reasons which can be in the advantage of economic agents who can commit towards different social groups.

  17. Adaptive grid based multi-objective Cauchy differential evolution for stochastic dynamic economic emission dispatch with wind power uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Huifeng; Lei, Xiaohui; Wang, Chao; Yue, Dong; Xie, Xiangpeng

    2017-01-01

    Since wind power is integrated into the thermal power operation system, dynamic economic emission dispatch (DEED) has become a new challenge due to its uncertain characteristics. This paper proposes an adaptive grid based multi-objective Cauchy differential evolution (AGB-MOCDE) for solving stochastic DEED with wind power uncertainty. To properly deal with wind power uncertainty, some scenarios are generated to simulate those possible situations by dividing the uncertainty domain into different intervals, the probability of each interval can be calculated using the cumulative distribution function, and a stochastic DEED model can be formulated under different scenarios. For enhancing the optimization efficiency, Cauchy mutation operation is utilized to improve differential evolution by adjusting the population diversity during the population evolution process, and an adaptive grid is constructed for retaining diversity distribution of Pareto front. With consideration of large number of generated scenarios, the reduction mechanism is carried out to decrease the scenarios number with covariance relationships, which can greatly decrease the computational complexity. Moreover, the constraint-handling technique is also utilized to deal with the system load balance while considering transmission loss among thermal units and wind farms, all the constraint limits can be satisfied under the permitted accuracy. After the proposed method is simulated on three test systems, the obtained results reveal that in comparison with other alternatives, the proposed AGB-MOCDE can optimize the DEED problem while handling all constraint limits, and the optimal scheme of stochastic DEED can decrease the conservation of interval optimization, which can provide a more valuable optimal scheme for real-world applications.

  18. Socio-Economic Environment as the Basis for Innovation Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Akhmetova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The authors carried out a correlation analysis of the socio-economic environment factors, which have a decisive influence on the territorial innovative development according to data for the year 2012. The paper discloses socio-economic determinants that provide to reinforce territory’s innovative development. These determinants are higher education development, improving of social and transport infrastructure, growth in small business and trade. The paper also carried out a dynamic analysis according to data for period of 2012 - 2014 in the group of regions (Russian Federation "Generators of Innovations" and disclosed the positive impact of selected key determinants on the regional innovative development. The results of this research may be used in the government practice of different territories (countries, regions for decision-making in the field of socio-economic development.

  19. Library macro-environment: New technological and economic rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karmen Štular-Sotošek

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Fast and flexible adaptation to changes in the macro-environment is also crucial for libraries, which have to review them, respond to them and become a part of them. Consequently, the application of marketing science and tools helps libraries to find out how to survive in the competitive world and how to become better and stronger. The article, which draws from marketing, economic and information disciplines, introduces the main principles in the technological and economic environment of libraries and finds the knowledge about these disciplines to be most crucial for successful management of modern libraries, especially on the pretentious publishing market and on the market of information suppliers. Within the technological and economic environment, the cooperation is the only logical solution, which benefits the producers of information services and products as well as libraries. The following text finds that libraries will achieve long-term success and will be proactive in developing partnerships only by using relationship marketing. This relatively new approach offers libraries new ways for successful and long-term management of alliances between partners.

  20. Integrated multiperiod power generation and transmission expansion planning with sustainability aspects in a stochastic environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seddighi, Amir Hossein; Ahmadi-Javid, Amir

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a multistage stochastic programming model to address sustainable power generation and transmission expansion planning. The model incorporates uncertainties about future electricity demand, fuel prices, greenhouse gas emissions, as well as possible disruptions to which the power system is subject. A number of sustainability regulations and policies are considered to establish a framework for the social responsibility of the power system. The proposed model is applied to a real-world case, and several sensitivity analyses are carried out to provide managerial insights into different aspects of the model. The results emphasize the important role played by sustainability policies on the configuration of the power grid. - Highlights: • This paper considers integrated power generation and transmission expansion planning. • Sustainability aspects are incorporated into a multiperiod stochastic setting. • A stochastic mathematical programming model is developed to address the problem. • The model is applied to a real-world case and numerical studies are carried out

  1. Assessing economic consequences of foot disorders in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Hogeveen, H.; Stassen, E.N.

    2010-01-01

    Foot disorders are an important health problem in dairy cattle, in terms of economics and animal welfare. The incidence, severity, and duration of foot disorders account for their importance. Prevalence of both subclinical and clinical foot disorders is high. More insight into the economic

  2. Environment economics in 2012. Report from the Commission of auditors and environment economics - 2014 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caudron, Cedric; Diel, Olivier; Louis, Herve; Margontier, Sophie; Pasquier, Isabelle; Randriambololona, Celine; Carriere, Celine; Albertini, Jean-Paul

    2014-09-01

    The financial effort for environmental protection in France is estimated at euro 47.5 billion in 2012. At current prices, this expenditure is increasing by 3.2% compared to 2011, while the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is two times less. This progression comes from incentive or constraining measures of public authorities, as well as from the growing environmental awareness by society. But it is also linked to the rise of environmental goods and services prices. However, the evolution of each environmental domain has got its own characteristics. Thus, expenditures for protection and remediation of soil, for protection of ambient air and climate, and for waste management are all increasing by more than 5% in 2012, whereas those for general environmental administration and for radioactive waste management are decreasing. Expenditures related to the recovery and recycling sector and to renewable energy are not included in the total of environmental protection expenditure. Both of them are increasing by more than 6% in 2012. Employment in the environmental goods and services sector had significantly risen in previous years. It is stagnating in 2012, in spite of a sharply increasing trade surplus. As for the labour market of green economy, only the strictly green jobs seem to be a little less concerned by the difficulties related to the current economic situation. (authors)

  3. An Innovative Real-time Environment for Unified Deterministic and Stochastic Groundwater Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Liu, Q.

    2003-12-01

    Despite an exponential growth of computational capability over the last two decades-one that has allowed computational science and engineering to become a unique, powerful tool for scientific discovery-the extreme cost of groundwater modeling continues to limit its use. This occurs primarily because the modeling paradigm that has been employed for decades limits our ability to take full advantage of recent developments in computer, communication, graphic, and visualization technologies. In this presentation we introduce an innovative and sophisticated computational environment for groundwater modeling that promises to eliminate the current bottleneck and greatly expand the utility of computational tools for scientific discovery related to groundwater. Based on a set of efficient and robust computational algorithms, the new software system, called Interactive Groundwater (IGW), allows simulating complex flow and transport in aquifers subject to both systematic and "randomly" varying stresses and geological and chemical heterogeneity. Adopting a new paradigm, IGW eliminates a major bottleneck inherent in the traditional fragmented modeling technologies and enables real-time modeling, real-time visualization, real-time analysis, and real-time presentation. IGW functions as a "numerical laboratory" in which a researcher can freely explore in real-time: creating visually an aquifer of desired configurations, interactively imposing desired stresses, and then immediately investigating and visualizing the geology and the processes of flow and contaminant transport and transformation. A modeler can pause to edit at any time and interact on-line with any aspects (e.g., conceptual and numerical representation, boundary conditions, model solvers, and ways of visualization and analysis) of the integrated modeling process; he/she can initiate or stop, whenever needed, particle tracking, plume modeling, subscale modeling, cross-sectional modeling, stochastic modeling, monitoring

  4. Assessing debt sustainability in a stochastic environment: 200 years of Dutch debt and deficit management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.; France, A.

    2012-01-01

    When debt levels approach critical levels, tax payers may revolt against the associated debt service burden. Funding problems may arise in capital markets when lenders anticipate such revolts and refuse to participate in debt auctions. We provide a stochastic framework to assess whether such

  5. Stochastic energy management of renewable micro-grids in the correlated environment using unscented transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabatabaee, Sajad; Mortazavi, Seyed Saeedallah; Niknam, Taher

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the optimal stochastic scheduling of the distributed generation units in a micro-grid. In this way, it introduces a new sufficient stochastic framework to model the correlated uncertainties in the micro-grid that includes different types of RESs such as photovoltaics, wind turbines, micro-turbine, fuel cell as well as battery as the storage device. The proposed stochastic method makes use of unscented transforms to model correlated uncertain parameters. The ability of the unscented transform method to model correlated uncertain variables is particularly appealing in the context of power systems, wherein noticeable inherent correlation exists. Due to the highly complex nature of the problem, a new optimization method based on the harmony search algorithm along with an intelligent modification method is devised to solve the proposed optimization problem, efficiently. The proposed optimization algorithm is equipped with powerful search mechanisms that make it suitable for solving both discrete and continuous problems. In comparison with the original harmony search algorithm, the proposed modified optimization algorithm has few setting parameters. The new modified harmony search algorithm provides proper balance between the local and global searches. The feasibility and satisfactory performance of performance of the proposed method are examined on two typical grid-connected MGs. - Highlights: • Introducing a new artificial optimization algorithm based on HS evolutionary technique. • Introducing a new stochastic framework based on unscented transform to model the uncertainties of the problem. • Proposing a new modification method for HS to improve its total search ability.

  6. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  7. A stochastic model for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for production and functional traits in dairy cattle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nielsen, H.M.; Groen, A.F.; Ostergaard, S.; Berg, P.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this paper was to present a model of a dairy cattle production system for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for both production and functional traits under Danish production circumstances. The stochastic model used is dynamic, and simulates production

  8. Theoretical approach on microscopic bases of stochastic functional self-organization: quantitative measures of the organizational degree of the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oprisan, Sorinel Adrian [Department of Psychology, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA (United States)]. E-mail: soprisan@uno.edu

    2001-11-30

    There has been increased theoretical and experimental research interest in autonomous mobile robots exhibiting cooperative behaviour. This paper provides consistent quantitative measures of organizational degree of a two-dimensional environment. We proved, by the way of numerical simulations, that the theoretically derived values of the feature are reliable measures of aggregation degree. The slope of the feature's dependence on memory radius leads to an optimization criterion for stochastic functional self-organization. We also described the intellectual heritages that have guided our research, as well as possible future developments. (author)

  9. Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostert, P.F.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Middelaar, van C.E.; Hogeveen, H.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in dairy cows. This metabolic disorder occurs in the period around calving and is associated with an increased risk of other diseases. Therefore, SCK affects farm productivity and profitability.

  10. Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Shu-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

  11. Economic policy and the environment (Republic of Macedonia)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    In general, the areas of significant environmental concerns in Macedonia are located near large urban areas, with industrial sources being the major polluters.Reduced industrial production in the last five years decreased the level of pollutants being discharged in air, water and soil compared in the 1980s. However, if industries resume previous levels of production, without proper environmental checks the pollution load to various media will increase. Today, in Macedonia there is willingness to treat environmental issues as an integral part of the overall strategy for economic and social development during the transition to a market economy. Further, Macedonia plans to harmonize its policies, including the ones on environment, with those of EU so as to promote closer integration with other European countries. The effects of economic restructuring may not be favorable for the environment if environmental policies are not developed soon. In the process of developing a policy to finance environmental protection, two principles need to be adopted and followed at all levels of government, namely 'polluter pays' and 'user pays' principles. This will strengthen the role of local communities in financing environmental protection. (author)

  12. Essays on economic development, energy demand, and the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlock, Kenneth Barry, III

    2000-10-01

    The rapid expansion of industry at the outset of economic development and the subsequent growth of the transportation and residential and commercial sectors dictate both the rate at which energy demand increases and the composition of primary fuel sources used to meet secondary requirements. Each of these factors each has an impact on the pollution problems that nations may face. Growth in consumer wealth, however, appears to eventually lead to a shift in priorities. In particular, the importance of the environment begins to take precedent over the acquisition of goods. Accordingly, cleaner energy alternatives are sought out. The approach taken here is to determine the energy profile of an average nation, and apply those results to a model of economic growth. Dematerialization of production and saturation of consumer bundles results in declining rates of growth of energy demand in broadly defined end-use sectors. The effects of technological change in fossil fuel efficiency, fossil fuel recovery, and 'backstop' energy resources on economic growth and the emissions of carbon dioxide are then analyzed. A central planner is assumed to optimize the consumption of goods and services subject to capital and resource constraints. Slight perturbations in the parameters are used to determine their local elasticities with respect to different endogenous variables, and give an indication of the effects of changes in the various assumptions.

  13. Integrating forest ecosystem services into the farming landscape: A stochastic economic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monge, Juan J; Parker, Warren J; Richardson, James W

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this study was to assess how payments for ecosystem services could assist plantation forestry's integration into pastoral dairy farming in order to improve environmental outcomes and increase business resilience to both price uncertainty and production limits imposed by environmental policies. Stochastic Dominance (SD) criteria and portfolio analysis, accounting for farmers' risk aversion levels, were used to rank different land-use alternatives and landscapes with different levels of plantation forestry integration. The study was focused on a modal 200-ha dairy farm in the Lake Rotorua Catchment of the Central North Island region of New Zealand, where national environmental policies are being implemented to improve water quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Nitrogen and carbon payments would help farmers improve early cash flows for forestry, provide financial leverage to undertake afforestation projects and contribute to improved environmental outcomes for the catchment. The SD criteria demonstrated that although dairy farming generates the highest returns, plantation forestry with nitrogen and carbon payments would be a preferred alternative for landowners with relatively low risk aversion levels who consider return volatility and environmental limits within their land-use change criteria. Using the confidence premium concept, environmental payments to encourage plantation forestry into the landscape were shown to be lower when the majority of landowners are risk averse. The certainty equivalence approach helped to identify the optimal dairy-forestry portfolio arrangements for landowners of different levels of risk aversion, intensities of dairy farming (status quo and intensified) and nitrogen prices. At low nitrogen prices, risk neutral farmers would choose to afforest less than half of the farm and operate at the maximum nitrogen allowance, because dairy farming at both intensities provides the highest return among the different land

  14. A stochastic model for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for production and functional traits in dairy cattle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Hanne-Marie; Groen, A F; Østergaard, Søren

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this paper was to present a model of a dairy cattle production system for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for both production and functional traits under Danish production circumstances. The stochastic model used is dynamic, and simulates production...... was -0.94 €/day per cow-year. Standard deviations of economic values expressing variation in realised profit of a farm before and after a genetic change were computed using a linear Taylor series expansion. Expressed as coefficient of variation, standard deviations of economic values based on 1000...

  15. Deterministic and stochastic methods of calculation of polarization characteristics of radiation in natural environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelkov, S. A.; Sushkevich, T. A.; Maksakova, S. V.

    2017-11-01

    We are talking about russian achievements of the world level in the theory of radiation transfer, taking into account its polarization in natural media and the current scientific potential developing in Russia, which adequately provides the methodological basis for theoretically-calculated research of radiation processes and radiation fields in natural media using supercomputers and mass parallelism. A new version of the matrix transfer operator is proposed for solving problems of polarized radiation transfer in heterogeneous media by the method of influence functions, when deterministic and stochastic methods can be combined.

  16. R&D Project Valuation Considering Changes of Economic Environment: A Case of a Pharmaceutical R&D Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Ho Park

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available R&D project valuation is important for effective R&D portfolio management through decision making, related to the firm’s R&D productivity, sustainable management. In particular, scholars have emphasized the necessities of capturing option value in R&D and developed methods of real option valuation. However, despite suggesting various real option models, there are few studies on simultaneously employing mean-reverting stochastic process and Markov regime switching to describe the evolution of cash flow and to reflect time-varying parameters resulting from changes of economic environment. Therefore, we suggest a mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching and apply it to evaluate clinical development with project cases of the pharmaceutical industry. This study finds that decision making can be different according to the regime condition, thus the suggested model can capture risks caused by the uncertainty of the economic environment, represented by regime switching. Further, this study simulates the model according to rate parameter from 0.00 to 1.00 and risk-free interest rates for regimes 1 and 2 from ( r 1 = 4%, r 2 = 2% to ( r 1 = 7%, r 2 = 5%, and confirms the rigidity of the model. Therefore, in practice, the mean-reverting binomial lattice model under Markov regime switching proposed in this study for R&D project valuation contributes to assisting company R&D project managers make effective decision making considering current economic environment and future changes.

  17. Environment and economic growth in the federal republic of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertsch, F.

    1998-01-01

    After several decades of economic growth with a continuous increase of energy consumptions, a new trend is now developing in Germany: reduction of energy consumptions and of pollutant emissions. This paper analyzes first the energy supplies of Germany (consumption, sources), the consumption by sector, and the share of the different energy sources in the German consumption (petroleum, coal, natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable energies). In a second part, the German energy policy is presented with its priorities and actions regarding the environment protection: energy savings, development of renewable energy sources, reduction of automotive fuels consumption, rational use of energy, thermal insulation of buildings, financial incentives etc.. Finally, the forecasting of future energy consumption and pollutants emission trends in Germany and at the worldwide scale are evoked. (J.S.)

  18. Public economics and the environment in an imperfect world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovenberg, L.; Cnossen, S.

    1995-01-01

    Growing populations and economies have increased the public's awareness that the world's environment resources are finite. The issues of global warming and depletion of the ozone layer have given universal significance to what were once local and regional pollution problems. In this book the interface between public economics and environmental economics is examined. It is evident that Coasian negotiations fail to internalize the costs of environmental degradation often calling for public intervention through the market mechanism. In this book those issues are considered and contributions on assessment problems, institutional aspects, the need for coordination and efficiency and distribution issues are included. The papers in this volume were selected from 64 papers, presented at the 50th IIPF (International Institute of Public Finance) congress. 15 contributions are grouped under the headings Introduction (Part 1), An Imperfect World (Part 2), Assessment Problems (Part 3), Institutional Aspects (Part 4), The Need for Coordination (Part 5), and Efficiency and Distribution Issues (Part 6). 25 figs., 39 tabs., 380 refs

  19. Economically viable and environment-friendly hydro energy in Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saks, Ants; Velner, Harald

    2001-01-01

    Hydro energy has been in oblivion in Estonia for about 30 years now. During the 1960s, most of Estonia's small hydropower plants were closed down, just as it was done in the whole Soviet Union. As the only larger hydro plant, the 125 MW plant in Narva, was situated on the Russian side of the Narva River, there were only two or three small hydro plants left. Even those were exploited at low capacity and mainly for heating the buildings. It was not until the 1990s that a number of enthusiasts started to re-establish the hydro plants by reconstructing old installations. The pre-feasibility study 'Hydropower in Estonia' proposed by Estonian and Swedish experts, showed that the restoration of the hydropower plants and watermills is economically feasible and technically possible if advanced technology is used. Hydropower as an alternative ('green') energy source should be used in the best technical-economical way. The first pilot plant in Estonia, the 200 kW Kamari plant was constructed in 1998 with compact-propeller units, in co-operation with Waterpumps WP Oy and ABB. Today, ten new plants have been constructed or are under construction. Hydropower plants/watermills should be reconstructed in accordance with the legislative acts on environment protection

  20. Quadratic partial eigenvalue assignment in large-scale stochastic dynamic systems for resilient and economic design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Sonjoy; Goswami, Kundan; Datta, Biswa N.

    2014-01-01

    Failure of structural systems under dynamic loading can be prevented via active vibration control which shifts the damped natural frequencies of the systems away from the dominant range of loading spectrum. The damped natural frequencies and the dynamic load typically show significant variations in practice. A computationally efficient methodology based on quadratic partial eigenvalue assignment technique and optimization under uncertainty has been formulated in the present work that will rigorously account for these variations and result in an economic and resilient design of structures. A novel scheme based on hierarchical clustering and importance sampling is also developed in this work for accurate and efficient estimation of probability of failure to guarantee the desired resilience level of the designed system. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology

  1. Quadratic partial eigenvalue assignment in large-scale stochastic dynamic systems for resilient and economic design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Das, Sonjoy; Goswami, Kundan [University at Buffalo, NY (United States); Datta, Biswa N. [Northern Illinois University, IL (United States)

    2014-12-10

    Failure of structural systems under dynamic loading can be prevented via active vibration control which shifts the damped natural frequencies of the systems away from the dominant range of loading spectrum. The damped natural frequencies and the dynamic load typically show significant variations in practice. A computationally efficient methodology based on quadratic partial eigenvalue assignment technique and optimization under uncertainty has been formulated in the present work that will rigorously account for these variations and result in an economic and resilient design of structures. A novel scheme based on hierarchical clustering and importance sampling is also developed in this work for accurate and efficient estimation of probability of failure to guarantee the desired resilience level of the designed system. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

  2. in_focus - Valuing the Environment: Economics for a Sustainable ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-01-01

    Jan 1, 2010 ... Environmental economics is a subfield of economics concerned with ... Economics has much to offer in understanding and influencing this behaviour. ... IDRC congratulates first cohort of Women in Climate Change Science ...

  3. Chlorofluorocarbons and the environment: scientific, economic, social and political issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badr, O; Probert, S D; O' Callaghan, P W [Cranfield Inst. of Technology, Bedford (GB). Dept. of Applied Energy

    1990-01-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons have been among the most useful chemical compounds ever developed. However, after more than forty years of a continuously increasing rate of worldwide use in the industrial and domestic sectors, unequivocal evidence has indicated that, if released into Earth's atmosphere, they are amongst the most devastating of pollutants that could threaten the quality of life for future generations. Thus it is not surprising that, for nearly two decades, this dichotomy of interests has been a prominent issue. This report presents the scientific evidence available concerning the impacts of chlorofluorocarbons on the ambient environment. Regional, national and international policies adopted to try to curb their emissions into the atmosphere are summarised. Economic and social consequences of these policies are discussed, together with some of the available and recommended technological solutions to the environmental problem. It is believed that agreements reached internationally to date are insufficient to ensure the adequate protection of the environment. Even an immediate total ban on the production and use of such chemical compounds would not lead to a reversal of the environmental degradation for at least a century, due to the chlorofluorocarbons already in the atmosphere. (author).

  4. Absorptive and dispersive optical profiles in fluctuating environments: A stochastic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paz, J.L.; Mendoza-Garcia, A.; Mastrodomenico, A.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we determined the absorptive and dispersive optical profiles of a molecular system coupled with a thermal bath. Solvent effects were explicitly considered by modelling the non-radiative interaction with the solute as a random variable. The optical stochastical Bloch equations (OSBE) were solved using a time-ordered cumulant expansion with white noise as a correlation function. We found a solution for the Fourier component of coherence at the third order of perturbation for the nonlinear Four-wave mixing signal and produced analytical expressions for the optical responses of the system. Finally, we examined the behaviour of these properties with respect to the noise parameter, frequency detuning of the dynamic perturbation, and relaxation times.

  5. Creating the Environment for Entrepreneurship through Economic Freedom

    OpenAIRE

    Joshua C. Hall; Robert A. Lawson; Saurav Roychoudhury

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we argue that the ability of people to freely trade, enter into contracts, and start businesses in a system of private property and the rule of law is crucial for productive entrepreneurship. One measure of how freely individuals can engage in economic activity is the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index. After examining the economic policies that harm economic freedom and possibly entrepreneurship, we highlight the correspondence between economic freedom and a number of me...

  6. A stochastic dynamic model of a dairy farm to evaluate the technical and economic performance under different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calsamiglia, S; Astiz, S; Baucells, J; Castillejos, L

    2018-05-23

    Dairy farms need to improve their competitiveness through decisions that are often difficult to evaluate because they are highly dependent on many economic and technical factors. The objective of this project was to develop a stochastic and dynamic mathematical model to simulate the functioning of a dairy farm to evaluate the effect of changes in technical or economic factors on performance and profitability. Submodels were developed for reproduction, feeding, diseases, heifers, environmental factors, facilities, management, and economics. All these submodels were simulated on an animal-by-animal and day-by-day basis. Default values for all variables are provided, but the user can change them. The outcome provides a list of technical and economic indicators essential for the decision-making process. Performance of the program was verified by evaluating the effects and sensitivity analysis of different scenarios in 20 different dairy farms. As an example, a case study of a dairy farm with 300 cows producing 40 L/d and a 12% pregnancy rate (PR) was used. The effect of using a time-fixed artificial insemination (TFAI) protocol in the first insemination at 77 d in milk, with 45 and 40% conception rates for first-lactation and older cows, respectively, and a cost of €13 was explored. During the 5-yr simulation, the TFAI increased PR (12 to 17%) and milk yield per milking cow (39.8 to 41.2 L/d) and reduced days to first AI (93 to 74), days open (143 to 116), and the proportion of problem cows (24.3 to 15.9%). In the TFAI, cows were dried 30 d earlier, resulting in more dry cows, and a smaller difference in milk yield by present cows (35.5 vs 36.0 L/d for control and TFAI, respectively). A longer productive life (2.56 vs. 2.79 yr) with shorter lactations in TFIA resulted in less first-lactation cows (42 vs 36%), 32 more calvings per year, and, therefore, more cases of postpartum diseases. Total (32.5 to 29.9%) and reproductive (10.5 vs 6.8%) culling rates decreased in

  7. Economic Security Environment and Implementation of Planning, Programming, Budgeting, Execution (PPBE) System in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-06-01

    Roy J. What Determines Economic Growth? Economic Review – Second Quarter 1993 [References: Barro (1991); Mankiw , Romer, and Well (1992); De Long...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release: distribution unlimited ECONOMIC SECURITY...DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Economic Security Environment and Implementation of Planning, Programming, Budgeting, Execution

  8. Modeling and Optimization of the Multiobjective Stochastic Joint Replenishment and Delivery Problem under Supply Chain Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As a practical inventory and transportation problem, it is important to synthesize several objectives for the joint replenishment and delivery (JRD decision. In this paper, a new multiobjective stochastic JRD (MSJRD of the one-warehouse and n-retailer systems considering the balance of service level and total cost simultaneously is proposed. The goal of this problem is to decide the reasonable replenishment interval, safety stock factor, and traveling routing. Secondly, two approaches are designed to handle this complex multi-objective optimization problem. Linear programming (LP approach converts the multi-objective to single objective, while a multi-objective evolution algorithm (MOEA solves a multi-objective problem directly. Thirdly, three intelligent optimization algorithms, differential evolution algorithm (DE, hybrid DE (HDE, and genetic algorithm (GA, are utilized in LP-based and MOEA-based approaches. Results of the MSJRD with LP-based and MOEA-based approaches are compared by a contrastive numerical example. To analyses the nondominated solution of MOEA, a metric is also used to measure the distribution of the last generation solution. Results show that HDE outperforms DE and GA whenever LP or MOEA is adopted.

  9. A stochastic model of particle dispersion in turbulent reacting gaseous environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guangyuan; Lignell, David; Hewson, John

    2012-11-01

    We are performing fundamental studies of dispersive transport and time-temperature histories of Lagrangian particles in turbulent reacting flows. The particle-flow statistics including the full particle temperature PDF are of interest. A challenge in modeling particle motions is the accurate prediction of fine-scale aerosol-fluid interactions. A computationally affordable stochastic modeling approach, one-dimensional turbulence (ODT), is a proven method that captures the full range of length and time scales, and provides detailed statistics of fine-scale turbulent-particle mixing and transport. Limited results of particle transport in ODT have been reported in non-reacting flow. Here, we extend ODT to particle transport in reacting flow. The results of particle transport in three flow configurations are presented: channel flow, homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and jet flames. We investigate the functional dependence of the statistics of particle-flow interactions including (1) parametric study with varying temperatures, Reynolds numbers, and particle Stokes numbers; (2) particle temperature histories and PDFs; (3) time scale and the sensitivity of initial and boundary conditions. Flow statistics are compared to both experimental measurements and DNS data.

  10. Stochastic pumping of non-equilibrium steady-states: how molecules adapt to a fluctuating environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astumian, R D

    2018-01-11

    In the absence of input energy, a chemical reaction in a closed system ineluctably relaxes toward an equilibrium state governed by a Boltzmann distribution. The addition of a catalyst to the system provides a way for more rapid equilibration toward this distribution, but the catalyst can never, in and of itself, drive the system away from equilibrium. In the presence of external fluctuations, however, a macromolecular catalyst (e.g., an enzyme) can absorb energy and drive the formation of a steady state between reactant and product that is not determined solely by their relative energies. Due to the ubiquity of non-equilibrium steady states in living systems, the development of a theory for the effects of external fluctuations on chemical systems has been a longstanding focus of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The theory of stochastic pumping has provided insight into how a non-equilibrium steady-state can be formed and maintained in the presence of dissipation and kinetic asymmetry. This effort has been greatly enhanced by a confluence of experimental and theoretical work on synthetic molecular machines designed explicitly to harness external energy to drive non-equilibrium transport and self-assembly.

  11. Computational Investigation of Environment-Noise Interaction in Single-Cell Organisms: The Merit of Expression Stochasticity Depends on the Quality of Environmental Fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lück, Anja; Klimmasch, Lukas; Großmann, Peter; Germerodt, Sebastian; Kaleta, Christoph

    2018-01-10

    Organisms need to adapt to changing environments and they do so by using a broad spectrum of strategies. These strategies include finding the right balance between expressing genes before or when they are needed, and adjusting the degree of noise inherent in gene expression. We investigated the interplay between different nutritional environments and the inhabiting organisms' metabolic and genetic adaptations by applying an evolutionary algorithm to an agent-based model of a concise bacterial metabolism. Our results show that constant environments and rapidly fluctuating environments produce similar adaptations in the organisms, making the predictability of the environment a major factor in determining optimal adaptation. We show that exploitation of expression noise occurs only in some types of fluctuating environment and is strongly dependent on the quality and availability of nutrients: stochasticity is generally detrimental in fluctuating environments and beneficial only at equal periods of nutrient availability and above a threshold environmental richness. Moreover, depending on the availability and nutritional value of nutrients, nutrient-dependent and stochastic expression are both strategies used to deal with environmental changes. Overall, we comprehensively characterize the interplay between the quality and periodicity of an environment and the resulting optimal deterministic and stochastic regulation strategies of nutrient-catabolizing pathways.

  12. Random recurrence equations and ruin in a Markov-dependent stochastic economic environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Collamore, Jeffrey F.

    2009-01-01

    series models.  Our results build upon work of Goldie, who has developed tail asymptotics applicable for independent sequences of random variables subject to a random recurrence equation.  In contrast, we adopt a general approach based on the theory of Harris recurrent Markov chains and the associated...

  13. Service ORiented Computing EnviRonment (SORCER) for Deterministic Global and Stochastic Optimization

    OpenAIRE

    Raghunath, Chaitra

    2015-01-01

    With rapid growth in the complexity of large scale engineering systems, the application of multidisciplinary analysis and design optimization (MDO) in the engineering design process has garnered much attention. MDO addresses the challenge of integrating several different disciplines into the design process. Primary challenges of MDO include computational expense and poor scalability. The introduction of a distributed, collaborative computational environment results in better...

  14. The use of economic forecasts in Danish economic policy, with special emphasis on energy and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Lise

    1998-01-01

    This article discusses the use of economic forecasts in Danish economic policy, with special emphasis on energy and the environment. Two different approaches have been used to forecast energy consumption and its effects on environment in Denmark and other countries. These are the macro economic and the technical approaches. The technical approach is based on technical expertise related to energy production and energy consumption, and the article asks whether the forecasts produced by this approach are superior to macro economic forecasts of energy consumption. This question is interesting because the implications for policy resulting from the two approaches seem to be different. The analysis may have relevance to other areas outside the main economic field. (au) 22 refs

  15. Revealing Forest Harvesting Effects on Large Peakflows in Rain-On-Snow Environment with a New Stochastic Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, W. N.; Alila, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Using nine pairs of control-treatment watersheds with varying climate, physiography, and harvesting practices in the Rain-On-Snow (ROS) environment of the Pacific Northwest region, we explore the linkage between environmental control and the sensitivity of peakflow response to harvesting effects. Compared to previous paired watershed studies in ROS environment, we employed an experimental design of Frequency Pairing to isolate the effects of disturbances on systems' response. In contrary, the aspect of changing frequency distributions is not commonly invoked in previous literatures on the topic of forests and floods. Our results show how harvesting can dramatically increase the magnitude of all peakflows on record and how such effects can increase with increasing return periods, as a consequence of substantial increases to the mean and variance of the peakflow frequency distribution. Most critically, peakflows with return period larger than 10 years can increase in frequency, where the larger the peakflow event the more frequent it may become. The sensitivity of the upper tail of the frequency distribution of peakflows was found to be linked to the physiographic and climatic characteristics via a unifying synchronization / desynchronization spatial scaling mechanism that controls the generation of rain-on-snow runoff. This new physically-based stochastic hydrology understanding on the response of watersheds in ROS environments runs counter the deterministic prevailing wisdom of forest hydrology, which presumes a limited and diminishing role of forest cover as the magnitude of the peakflow event increases. By demonstrating the need for invoking the dimension of frequency in the understanding and prediction of the effects of harvesting on peakflows, findings from this study suggested that pure deterministic hypotheses and experimental designs that solely focusing on the changing magnitude of peakflows have been misguiding forest hydrology research for over a century

  16. CORPORATE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AS A SET OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS FOR BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana A. Gusar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Intellectual resources are widely used in the formation of corporate business environment. This environment is a new phenomenon in the system of socio-economic relations. The corporate business environment is a set of economic conditions for the development of entrepreneurship, business life. In this environment, exercise more incentives to work, increasing the level of economic freedom, including the freedom of movement of the resource, including intellectual, production components. It is therefore important and necessary to give its definition from the perspective of both economic and organizational-administrative relations, which is a key objective of this research. In addition, the article carried out a comprehensive assessment of how the corporate environment for the development of regional business and knowledge of the mechanisms of the effect of factors internal and external environment for the development of corporate business environment.

  17. Assessment of the Impact of Stochastic Day-Ahead SCUC on Economic and Reliability Metrics at Multiple Timescales: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, H.; Ela, E.; Krad, I.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Ibanez, E.; Gao, W.

    2015-03-01

    This paper incorporates the stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (DASCUC) within a multi-timescale, multi-scheduling application with commitment, dispatch, and automatic generation control. The stochastic DASCUC is solved using a progressive hedging algorithm with constrained ordinal optimization to accelerate the individual scenario solution. Sensitivity studies are performed in the RTS-96 system, and the results show how this new scheduling application would impact costs and reliability with a closer representation of timescales of system operations in practice.

  18. Ecological-economical approach to assessment of environment state at the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chugunova, N.S.; Balykbaeva, S.Y.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents methods used for ecological-economical assessment of the environment condition at the former Semipalatinsk Test Site. It also presents methodology of calculating ecological and economical parameters for different options. Besides, the paper provides data describing assessment of ecological and economical damage caused by defense establishment activities at the Semipalatinsk Test Site. (author)

  19. International Experiences with Economic Incentives for Protecting the Environment (2004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This 2001 report finds that over the last 20 years, and particularly during the past decade, economic incentives have been increasingly used to control pollution and improve environmental and health protection.

  20. Economic approach of the environment and environmental conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verbruggen, A.

    2008-01-01

    This book takes the non-economist by the hand in a step-by-step economic approach of environmental issues and how to handle them. Two chapters provide an introduction to the concepts of the economy, chapter six in decision theory. In the first chapter, the economist discovers a broader vision by testing the economic approach to insights from other disciplines. Chapter 4 explains how economic reasoning can contribute tot environmental protection in practice. The consideration of the costs and benefits of environmental protection indicates objectives that must be pursued for the community. The conflict between private and public interest forces policy makers to get and maintain the numerous polluters focused on environmental protection. Suitable instruments are discussed in chapter five, including criteria for choice and an in-depth study of the economic instruments levies and tradable emission permits. The EU Emission trading Scheme is used as reference. [mk] [nl

  1. Valuing the environment: Economics for a sustainable future | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2010-10-06

    Oct 6, 2010 ... Environmental economics can identify the underlying causes of environmental ... A new IDRC book traces how the field has taken shape in developing ... of informal occupations that yield barely subsistence-level incomes.

  2. Economics for the Environment: Research Capacity Building in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    funds to the South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics ... SANDEE is a regional network seeking to strengthen research capacity on poverty, ... IDRC joins more than 800 international delegates at the Resilient Cities ...

  3. Energy, environment and economics: greenhouse policy in the balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkenfeld, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    Taking New South Wales as a case study, this paper reviews the government's major economic and environmental concerns, and analyses how they bear on energy and greenhouse policy options. The government's economic strategy emphasises the continuing importance of primary resources, minerals processing and energy-intensive manufacturing, where the State is perceived to have a competitive advantage because of its extensive coal resources. The implications of these trends for the energy utilities and for greenhouse energy policy are analysed. 22 refs., 1 tab

  4. Optimal harvesting policy of a stochastic two-species competitive model with Lévy noise in a polluted environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; Yuan, Sanling

    2017-07-01

    As well known that the sudden environmental shocks and toxicant can affect the population dynamics of fish species, a mechanistic understanding of how sudden environmental change and toxicant influence the optimal harvesting policy requires development. This paper presents the optimal harvesting of a stochastic two-species competitive model with Lévy noise in a polluted environment, where the Lévy noise is used to describe the sudden climate change. Due to the discontinuity of the Lévy noise, the classical optimal harvesting methods based on the explicit solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation are invalid. The object of this paper is to fill up this gap and establish the optimal harvesting policy. By using of aggregation and ergodic methods, the approximation of the optimal harvesting effort and maximum expectation of sustainable yields are obtained. Numerical simulations are carried out to support these theoretical results. Our analysis shows that the Lévy noise and the mean stress measure of toxicant in organism may affect the optimal harvesting policy significantly.

  5. Stochastic thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichhorn, Ralf; Aurell, Erik

    2014-04-01

    'Stochastic thermodynamics as a conceptual framework combines the stochastic energetics approach introduced a decade ago by Sekimoto [1] with the idea that entropy can consistently be assigned to a single fluctuating trajectory [2]'. This quote, taken from Udo Seifert's [3] 2008 review, nicely summarizes the basic ideas behind stochastic thermodynamics: for small systems, driven by external forces and in contact with a heat bath at a well-defined temperature, stochastic energetics [4] defines the exchanged work and heat along a single fluctuating trajectory and connects them to changes in the internal (system) energy by an energy balance analogous to the first law of thermodynamics. Additionally, providing a consistent definition of trajectory-wise entropy production gives rise to second-law-like relations and forms the basis for a 'stochastic thermodynamics' along individual fluctuating trajectories. In order to construct meaningful concepts of work, heat and entropy production for single trajectories, their definitions are based on the stochastic equations of motion modeling the physical system of interest. Because of this, they are valid even for systems that are prevented from equilibrating with the thermal environment by external driving forces (or other sources of non-equilibrium). In that way, the central notions of equilibrium thermodynamics, such as heat, work and entropy, are consistently extended to the non-equilibrium realm. In the (non-equilibrium) ensemble, the trajectory-wise quantities acquire distributions. General statements derived within stochastic thermodynamics typically refer to properties of these distributions, and are valid in the non-equilibrium regime even beyond the linear response. The extension of statistical mechanics and of exact thermodynamic statements to the non-equilibrium realm has been discussed from the early days of statistical mechanics more than 100 years ago. This debate culminated in the development of linear response

  6. Simulation of the energy - environment economic system power generation costs in power-stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weible, H.

    1978-09-01

    The costs of power generation are an important point in the electricity industry. The present report tries to supply a model representation for these problems. The costs of power generation for base load, average and peak load power stations are examined on the basis of fossil energy sources, nuclear power and water power. The methods of calculation where dynamic investment calculation processes are used, are given in the shape of formulae. From the point of view of long term prediction, power generation cost sensitivity studies are added to the technical, economic and energy-political uncertainties. The sensitivity of models for calculations is examined by deterministic and stochastic processes. In the base load and average region, power generation based on nuclear power and water power is economically more favourable than that from fossilfired power stations. Even including subsidies, this cost advantage is not in doubt. In the peak load region, pumped storage power stations are more economic than fossilfired power stations. (orig.) [de

  7. Globalisation, Transport and the Environment: New Perspectives for Ecological Economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen-Groot, D.B.; Nijkamp, P.

    1999-01-01

    This article aims to offer an overview of key issues centred around the relationship between globalisation and transport-related environmental decay in the ecological economics literature of the past decade, followed by an exploration of new research endeavours. The scientific contribution of 10

  8. Stochastic techno-economic assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation and the Response Surface Methodology: The case of an innovative linear Fresnel CSP (concentrated solar power) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bendato, Ilaria; Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Combining technological solutions with investment profitability is a critical aspect in designing both traditional and innovative renewable power plants. Often, the introduction of new advanced-design solutions, although technically interesting, does not generate adequate revenue to justify their utilization. In this study, an innovative methodology is developed that aims to satisfy both targets. On the one hand, considering all of the feasible plant configurations, it allows the analysis of the investment in a stochastic regime using the Monte Carlo method. On the other hand, the impact of every technical solution on the economic performance indicators can be measured by using regression meta-models built according to the theory of Response Surface Methodology. This approach enables the design of a plant configuration that generates the best economic return over the entire life cycle of the plant. This paper illustrates an application of the proposed methodology to the evaluation of design solutions using an innovative linear Fresnel Concentrated Solar Power system. - Highlights: • A stochastic methodology for solar plants investment evaluation. • Study of the impact of new technologies on the investment results. • Application to an innovative linear Fresnel CSP system. • A particular application of Monte Carlo simulation and response surface methodology.

  9. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  10. Stochastic modelling of the economic viability of on-farm co-digestion of pig manure and food waste in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennehy, C.; Lawlor, P.G.; Gardiner, G.E.; Jiang, Y.; Shalloo, L.; Zhan, X.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Assessed economic viability of on-farm manure mono- and co-digestion. •Assessed three farm sizes: 521 sows; 2607 sows; and 5214 sows. •Mono-digestion of manure alone not economically viable. •Co-digestion viable on small farms as food waste likely to be sourced. •Viability on larger farms dependent on securing sufficient food waste. -- Abstract: The majority of studies analysing the economic potential of biogas systems utilise deterministic models to assess the viability of a system using fixed inputs. However, changes in market conditions can significantly affect the viability of biogas plants, and need to be accounted for. This study assessed the economic potential of undertaking on-farm anaerobic co-digestion of food waste (FW) and pig manure (PM) using both deterministic and stochastic modelling approaches. The financial viability of three co-digestion plants sized to treat PM generated from 521, 2607 and 5214 sow integrated units was assessed. Under current market conditions the largest co-digestion scenario modelled was found to be unviable. Stochastic modelling of four key input variables (FW availability, renewable electricity tariff, gate fees and digestate disposal costs) was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of project viability to changes in market conditions. Due to the high likelihood of accessing sufficient FW, the smallest co-digestion scenario was found to be the least sensitive to any future changes in market conditions. Due to its potential to treat greater amounts of FW than the smallest scenario, a co-digestion plant designed for a 2607 sow farm had the highest revenue generating potential under optimal market conditions; however, it was more sensitive to changes in FW availability than the smaller scenario. This study illustrates the need for farm-based biogas plant projects to secure long-term, stable supplies of co-substrates and to size plants’ capacity based on the availability of the co-substrates which drive

  11. Wind turbines in your environment? Wind turbines and economic aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-02-01

    The wind energy industry has demonstrated its maturity and technical reliability. Because it will play an increasing role on the power generation market, the question of the cost and profitability of the wind energy has become of prime importance. Two main traps must be avoided: the first should be to deny the present and future economical interest of wind energy because of its supplementary cost with respect to conventional power generation techniques. The second trap should be to underestimate the economical progresses that wind energy must carry on to ensure its large scale development. Therefore, some advantageous pricing and regulatory conditions are necessary to allow the development of this emerging energy source. This document presents: the cost of a wind power project (initial investment, financial incentives); the profitability of a project (cost of a kWh of wind power origin, retail price, warranty of power supply capacity, indirect environmental costs, value of decentralized production); economical interest of wind power (energy efficiency, employment, financial advantages for the local economy); and who are the investors. (J.S.)

  12. Health, "illth," and economic growth: medicine, environment, and economics at the crossroads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egger, Garry

    2009-07-01

    Economic growth has been the single biggest contributor to population health since the Industrial Revolution. The growth paradigm, by definition, is dynamic, implying similar diminishing returns on investment at both the macro- and the micro-economic levels. Changes in patterns of health in developing countries, from predominantly microbial-related infectious diseases to lifestyle-related chronic diseases (e.g., obesity, type 2 diabetes) beyond a point of economic growth described as the epidemiologic transition, suggest the start of certain declining benefits from further investment in the growth model. These changes are reflected in slowing improvements in some health indices (e.g., mortality, infant mortality) and deterioration in others (e.g., disability-associated life years, obesity, chronic diseases). Adverse environmental consequences, such as climate change from economic development, are also related to disease outcomes through the development of inflammatory processes due to an immune reaction to new environmental and lifestyle-related inducers. Both increases in chronic disease and climate change can be seen as growth problems with a similar economic cause and potential economic and public health-rather than personal health-solutions. Some common approaches for dealing with both are discussed, with a plea for greater involvement by health scientists in the economic and environmental debates in order to deal effectively with issues like obesity and chronic disease.

  13. Extinction of canid populations by inbreeding depression under stochastic environments in Southwestern Goiás State: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Melo Rodrigues

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A frequently addressed question in conservation biology is what is the chance of survival for a population for a given number of years under certain conditions of habitat loss and human activities. This can be estimated through an integrated analysis of genetic, demographic and landscape processes, which allows the prediction of more realistic and precise models of population persistence. In this study, we modeled extinction in stochastic environments under inbreeding depression for two canid species, the maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachiurus and the crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous, in southwest Goiás State. Genetic parameters were obtained from six microsattelite loci (Short Tandem Repeats - STR, which allowed estimates of inbreeding levels and of the effective population size under a stepwise mutation model based on heterozygosis. The simulations included twelve alternative scenarios with varying rates of habitat loss, magnitude of population fluctuation and initial inbreeding levels. ANOVA analyses of the simulation results showed that times to extinction were better explained by demographic parameters. Times to extinction ranged from 352 to 844, in the worst and best scenario, respectively, for the large-bodied maned wolf. For the small-bodied crab-eating fox, these same estimates were 422 and 974 years. Simulations results are within the expectation based on knowledge about species' life history, genetics and demography. They suggest that populations can persist through a reasonable time (i.e., more than 200 years even under the worst demographic scenario. Our analyses are a starting point for a more focused evaluation of persistence in these populations. Our results can be used in future research aiming at obtaining better estimates of parameters that may, in turn, be used to achieve more appropriate and realist population viability models at a regional scale.

  14. Economic and Banking Environment in Romania and E.U.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICOLETA GEORGETA PANAIT

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The study presents the overall picture of Europe's economic prospects, strained relations within the European area. Also presents the evolution of the banking system in Romania in the context of situations in Europe, which returned to profit and record high levels of solvency and liquidity, while the NPL ratio continued to decline. Due to the difficulty of forecasting medium business, and to the macroeconomic context, banks avoid risk taking associated finance investment projects in the long term, preferring financing in the medium term, so that more than half of home loans granted in Romania are for term funding short and medium.

  15. Managing Entrepreneurial Risks under Conditions of Instability of Economic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroshnichenko Yurii V.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the state of an organisation under modern conditions of establishment of new competitive relations between subjects of economic activity and transition to the model of market economy, justifies urgency of studies devoted to methods of entrepreneurial risk management. The article analyses factors that influence the risk level and offers own definition of this category. The article sets the task of improvement of the systemised classification of entrepreneurial risk management methods. In the result of the conducted analysis, the authors offered an improved systemised classification of risk management methods and justifies efficiency of its use.

  16. The Influence of Changes in the Market Environment on Economic Production Characteristics of Pangasius Farming in the Mekong Delta (Vietnam)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Binh, Van T.; Haese, D' M.F.C.; Speelman, S.; Haese, D' L.

    2010-01-01

    The Mekong Delta in Vietnam has become an important production area for pangasius. The importance of the sector in providing an income to many households means that it is relevant to study its economic production characteristics. In this article we use a stochastic cost frontier model to assess the

  17. Developing Programs for the Business Environment - Economic Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Elena Ilie

    2014-01-01

    In early 2000, in Romania, there wasn’t much of a talk about stimulating business environment and in this case the SMEs (small and medium enterprises). After a transition period, various attempts to implement a financial and logistical support from the state were beginning to bear fruit with the year 2009 and take hold in 2011. Amid all legislative changes occurred, the Romanian state proves its effectiveness regarding Romanian entrepreneurs and especially young people, university graduates d...

  18. An Evaluation of the Economic Theoretical Potential of the Rural Environment Mismanged During 1956-2010

    OpenAIRE

    Florentin Gabriel Niculescu

    2015-01-01

    Under the context of the essential role and growing importance of the rural environment in the development of a country, we focus on evaluating the economic theoretical potential of the rural environment that we consider to have been mismanaged during 1956-2010. For this purpose, in this paper we define, describe and explain the main concepts, as to be able to evaluate the economic potential of the rural development and further contribute to its improvement. The study focuses on the correlati...

  19. Policies and measures for economic efficiency, energy security and environment protection in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkaiah, M.; Kaushik, S.C.; Dewangan, M.L.

    2007-01-01

    India needs to sustain 8-10% economic growth to meet energy needs of people below poverty line. India would, at least, need to grow its primary energy supply (3-4 times) of present consumption to deliver a sustained growth of 8% by 2031. This paper discusses India's policies and measures for economic efficiency, environment protection and energy security (3-E). (author)

  20. Economic Efficiency of Artisanal Fishing Households under Oil Pollution Environment in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbigbi, TM.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Fish supplies more than 87% of the animal protein in Nigeria, and more than 90% of coastal communities depend solely on fishing and fisheries related activities for their survival. Available information however, shows that Nigeria's inland water bodies are producing less than 13% of their estimated fishery potential. And domestic demand for fish has never been met by dependence on output from available aquatic sources. Nigeria therefore imports over US$ 200 million worth of frozen fish per annum. The capacity of artisanal fisheries to play its role of bridging this food gap, providing employment and generating income, particularly for the coastal communities in Nigeria, will largely depend on the adoption of appropriate management strategies that will ensure efficiency and sustainability given their debilitating oil pollution environment. This study employed a Cobb- Douglas stochastic frontier cost function to measure the level of economic efficiency and its determinants among these households. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 160 respondents from whom input-output data, prices and socioeconomic characteristics were obtained. The results of the analysis showed that individual levels of economic efficiency ranged from 0.10 - 0.96 with a mean of 0.68. While age, household size and number of fishing trips made in a week decreased, access to credit, membership of co-operative society, and oil spill increased, significantly, the respondents' level of economic inefficiency. These observations particularly suggest that the farmers were yet to harness the potentials of farm credit and membership of cooperative societies in their farm business, perhaps as a result of poverty. We recommend training workshops and seminars to remedy this. There is also the need for policies that could compel oil companies to minimize oil spill within the farmers' fishing environment. The adverse effects of oil spill on the environment and the

  1. [Evaluation of comprehensive capacity of resources and environments in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yan-Chun; Yu, Dan

    2014-10-01

    With the development of the society and economy, the contradictions among population, resources and environment are increasingly worse. As a result, the capacity of resources and environment becomes one of the focal issues for many countries and regions. Through investigating and analyzing the present situation and the existing problems of resources and environment in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, seven factors were chosen as the evaluation criterion layer, namely, land resources, water resources, biological resources, mineral resources, ecological-geological environment, water environment and atmospheric environment. Based on the single factor evaluation results and with the county as the evaluation unit, the comprehensive capacity of resources and environment was evaluated by using the state space method in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone. The results showed that it boasted abundant biological resources, quality atmosphere and water environment, and relatively stable geological environment, while restricted by land resource, water resource and mineral resource. Currently, although the comprehensive capacity of the resources and environments in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone was not overloaded as a whole, it has been the case in some counties/districts. State space model, with clear indication and high accuracy, could serve as another approach to evaluating comprehensive capacity of regional resources and environment.

  2. THE PRIVATISATION AND THE ECONOMICAL ENVIRONMENT OF ARGES COUNTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina, CHIRIAC

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The privatisation process has generated over time a lot of controversial opinions of the specialists. The lack of a complete analysis of the privatisation process, even now, after more than 20 years from its beginning, has raised questions regarding the accomplishment of the goals of the macro-economic policy. This paper aims to enclose the analysis and evaluation function of the privatisation process in Arges County. Based on the information gathered, we will analyse individually the privatised companies in Arges County, we will try to estimate the success rate of the privatisation process but also what were the effects of the privatisation process with regards to employment. The purpose of this paper is the improvement of the evaluation frame of the privatisation process by creating an inventory of problems and techniques, establishing the success rate and the percent of failed privatisations. This is a complex subject whose causes and effects are connected in the Romanian context, sometimes in the European and even geopolitical one, as we will try to prove by analysing the most important privatised companies from Arges County: Automobile Dacia SA and ARO SA.

  3. Management of the assisted instruction environment in economic higher education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana REVEIU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The world has entered the Knowledge Age. Information Technology is gradually turning the world into an Information Highway Network. The development of technology has greatly accelerated the international flow of information, capital and commodities and speeded the growth of economic integration. At the same time, the cycle of technological development and commercialization is becoming shorter and shorter [Zhouying, 1999]. Information technology is bringing rapid and profound changes to higher education, as it has to virtually every process in our society. Productivity often suffers because is difficult and timeconsuming to conduct a team effort. A portal solution base on SharePoint Portal Server can greatly facilitate the process of bringing knowledge teachers together as a team to achieve educational goals by providing a single point to access: automated essential day-to-day email communication, management of contacts, calendars, and instant messages, shared facilities to allow small teams of teachers to contribute to team and project-focused Web site, track tasks and events, shortened web-publishing cycles by linking collaboration and publishing processes.

  4. An Innovative Economic Incentive Model for Improvement of the Working Environment in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Christian

    1997-01-01

    work injury compensation system, that a number of European countries operate. Building on an understanding of enterprise decision processes and ressources, it is suggested to implement a range of tools targetting different groups of enterprises. The central tools are bonus schemes, a special scheme......The design of economic incentive schemes to promote working environment embetterment has proven complicated. The contribution list some central preconditions and tools of an economic incentive model for improving the working environment. The economic incentive is proposed built into the compulsory...... for small enterprises, a marketing label and low interest investment aid. It is finally discussed what contrains the implementation of such a scheme can be confronted with....

  5. An Evaluation of the Economic Theoretical Potential of the Rural Environment Mismanged During 1956-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentin Gabriel Niculescu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Under the context of the essential role and growing importance of the rural environment in the development of a country, we focus on evaluating the economic theoretical potential of the rural environment that we consider to have been mismanaged during 1956-2010. For this purpose, in this paper we define, describe and explain the main concepts, as to be able to evaluate the economic potential of the rural development and further contribute to its improvement. The study focuses on the correlations between the population of working age, occupancy, unemployment and the wasted economic potential, putting forward a new concept, statistically valid, demographic named the absolute able overpopulation.

  6. Assessing associations between socio-economic environment and self-reported health in Amsterdam using bespoke environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonore M Veldhuizen

    Full Text Available The study of the relationship between residential environment and health at micro area level has a long time been hampered by a lack of micro-scale data. Nowadays data is registered at a much more detailed scale. In combination with Geographic Information System (GIS-techniques this creates opportunities to look at the relationship at different scales, including very local ones. The study illustrates the use of a 'bespoke environment' approach to assess the relationship between health and socio-economic environment.We created these environments by buffer-operations and used micro-scale data on 6-digit postcode level to describe these individually tailored areas around survey respondents in an accurate way. To capture the full extent of area effects we maximized variation in socio-economic characteristics between areas. The area effect was assessed using logistic regression analysis.Although the contribution of the socio-economic environment in the explanation of health was not strong it tended to be stronger at a very local level. A positive association was observed only when these factors were measured in buffers smaller than 200 meters. Stronger associations were observed when restricting the analysis to socioeconomically homogeneous buffers. Scale effects proved to be highly important but potential boundary effects seemed not to play an important role. Administrative areas and buffers of comparable sizes came up with comparable area effects.This study shows that socio-economic area effects reveal only on a very micro-scale. It underlines the importance of the availability of micro-scale data. Through scaling, bespoke environments add a new dimension to study environment and health.

  7. Growth structure and environment. 6 contributions to the macro economic model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, Mette

    1998-04-01

    This thesis comprises 6 papers on the application of macro economic models to environmental problems. Interactions between the economic and the ecological models are elucidated and a description is given of a possible systematization of of the environmental-economic cycle within a macro economic model. Economic and technological limitations affecting the potential environmental advantages are discussed. In the second part of the thesis the general interdependence of production and consumption, and the various forms of environmental stress is analyzed. For this purpose an environment-related input-output model is presented, where for each industry there are given emissions and/or consumption of natural resources (so-called environmental coefficients), which are likely to originate from the activities of this industry. As examples of macro economic modelling,the nitrogen cycle in Denmark, environmental effects of consumer choice, use of building materials and emission due to energy generation and consumption etc. are analyzed. (EG) 146 refs

  8. Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

    2016-07-01

    Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

  9. Stochastic processes in cell biology

    CERN Document Server

    Bressloff, Paul C

    2014-01-01

    This book develops the theory of continuous and discrete stochastic processes within the context of cell biology.  A wide range of biological topics are covered including normal and anomalous diffusion in complex cellular environments, stochastic ion channels and excitable systems, stochastic calcium signaling, molecular motors, intracellular transport, signal transduction, bacterial chemotaxis, robustness in gene networks, genetic switches and oscillators, cell polarization, polymerization, cellular length control, and branching processes. The book also provides a pedagogical introduction to the theory of stochastic process – Fokker Planck equations, stochastic differential equations, master equations and jump Markov processes, diffusion approximations and the system size expansion, first passage time problems, stochastic hybrid systems, reaction-diffusion equations, exclusion processes, WKB methods, martingales and branching processes, stochastic calculus, and numerical methods.   This text is primarily...

  10. Power grid operation in a market environment economic efficiency and risk mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book examines both system operation and market operation perspectives, focusing on the interaction between the two. It incorporates up-to-date field experiences, presents challenges, and summarizes the latest theoretic advancements to address those challenges. The book is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the fundamentals of integrated system and market operations, including market power mitigation, market efficiency evaluation, and the implications of operation practices in energy markets. The second part discusses developing technologies to strengthen the use of the grid in energy markets. System volatility and economic impact introduced by the intermittency of wind and solar generation are also addressed. The third part focuses on stochastic applications, exploring new approaches of handling uncerta nty in Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) as well as the reserves needed for power system operation. The fourth part provides ongoing efforts of utilizing transmission facilities ...

  11. Optimal Strategy for Integrated Dynamic Inventory Control and Supplier Selection in Unknown Environment via Stochastic Dynamic Programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutrisno; Widowati; Solikhin

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a mathematical model in stochastic dynamic optimization form to determine the optimal strategy for an integrated single product inventory control problem and supplier selection problem where the demand and purchasing cost parameters are random. For each time period, by using the proposed model, we decide the optimal supplier and calculate the optimal product volume purchased from the optimal supplier so that the inventory level will be located at some point as close as possible to the reference point with minimal cost. We use stochastic dynamic programming to solve this problem and give several numerical experiments to evaluate the model. From the results, for each time period, the proposed model was generated the optimal supplier and the inventory level was tracked the reference point well. (paper)

  12. Changes of the agricultural enterprises economic environment originated by the agribusiness development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Věra Bečvářová

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Based upon analyses of the Common Agricultural Policy development and its economic tools reforming the process of changing is characterised there. It deals with the multifunctionality of agriculture as well as the influence of the CAP on environment of the production tasks of agriculture and food processing industry accomplishment. Paper generalises results of new trends of the agribusiness economic environment development and the opportunity of an effective utilization of production factors in agriculture. It deals with the sources and economic implications of partial enhancement of interest and redirection of support within framework and type of tools of agrarian policy. New quality of structure of relevant information needs and economic support for agricultural enterprises decision making process are pointed out.

  13. Economic and social development, energy and environment in Latin America and the West Indies - an ovierview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suding, P.H.

    1995-01-01

    After giving a short overview of the economic and social development of Latin America since 1980 the present article deals with the various problems relating to the energy supply of that region, namely economic growth, diversification, inefficiency, and environmental effects. If discusses the relationships that exist in Latin America between energy, environment, and the social situation and endeavours to outline possible approaches towards a socially and environmentally sustainable development. (UA) [de

  14. The Effect of Green Taxation and Economic Growth on Environment Hazards: The Case of Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Nanthakumar, Loganathan; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Taha, Roshaiza

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores how carbon taxation and economic growth affect environment hazards in Malaysia using time series data over the period of 1974-2010. We applied cointegration and causality approaches to determine long term and the direction of causal relationship between these variables. Based on the results, we found the cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, we noted that Kuznets’ theory i.e. inverted-U shaped curve between economic growth and CO2 emissions is vali...

  15. Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valentini, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    The term environment refers to the internal and external context in which organizations operate. For some scholars, environment is defined as an arrangement of political, economic, social and cultural factors existing in a given context that have an impact on organizational processes and structures....... For others, environment is a generic term describing a large variety of stakeholders and how these interact and act upon organizations. Organizations and their environment are mutually interdependent and organizational communications are highly affected by the environment. This entry examines the origin...... and development of organization-environment interdependence, the nature of the concept of environment and its relevance for communication scholarships and activities....

  16. Economic impact of clinical mastitis in a dairy herd assessed by stochastic simulation using different methods to model yield losses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagnestam-Nielsen, Christel; Østergaard, Søren

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of the present study was to examine the economic consequences of a reduction in the incidence of clinical mastitis (CM) at herd level under current Swedish farming conditions. A second objective was to ask whether the estimated cost of CM alters depending upon whether the model...... with 150 cows (9000 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow-year). Four herd types, defined by production level and reproductive performance, were modelled to investigate possible interactions between herd type and response to a reduction in the risk of CM. Technical and economic results, given the initial...... incidence of CM (25.6 per 100 cow-years), were studied together with the consequences of reducing the initial risk of CM by 50% and 90% throughout lactation and the consequences of reducing the initial risk by 50% and 90% before peak yield. A conventional way of modelling yield losses - i.e. one employing...

  17. Considerations on the medico-legal compensation for stochastic effects induced by the exposure to ionizing radiations in working environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lafontaine, M.

    1988-01-01

    A better detection of stochastic diseases induced by the exposure to ionizing radiations and the establishment of causative correlation are presently reasons to justify new medico-legal approaches. The right to reparation for workers suffering from diseases which may have been caused by occupational exposure to ionizing radiations in Belgium, is covered by the law on occupational diseases and by the legislation on industrial accidents. However, some difficulties persist, concerning the right for compensation, consisting in the very short delay for prescription, the existence of an administrative list of diseases eligible for compensation and in the burden of proof to establish an obvious etiological relation. (Author)

  18. A Multiobjective Stochastic Production-Distribution Planning Problem in an Uncertain Environment Considering Risk and Workers Productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. J. Mirzapour Al-e-Hashem

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A multi-objective two stage stochastic programming model is proposed to deal with a multi-period multi-product multi-site production-distribution planning problem for a midterm planning horizon. The presented model involves majority of supply chain cost parameters such as transportation cost, inventory holding cost, shortage cost, production cost. Moreover some respects as lead time, outsourcing, employment, dismissal, workers productivity and training are considered. Due to the uncertain nature of the supply chain, it is assumed that cost parameters and demand fluctuations are random variables and follow from a pre-defined probability distribution. To develop a robust stochastic model, an additional objective functions is added to the traditional production-distribution-planning problem. So, our multi-objective model includes (i the minimization of the expected total cost of supply chain, (ii the minimization of the variance of the total cost of supply chain and (iii the maximization of the workers productivity through training courses that could be held during the planning horizon. Then, the proposed model is solved applying a hybrid algorithm that is a combination of Monte Carlo sampling method, modified -constraint method and L-shaped method. Finally, a numerical example is solved to demonstrate the validity of the model as well as the efficiency of the hybrid algorithm.

  19. Polish economic clusters and their efforts to protect the environment – selected examples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyrda-Muskus Joanna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the benefits they can obtain business which aim to protect the environment. The environment protection has found its place and affects the process of systemic change of the Polish economy. This article assumes that building a competitive economy and enterprise development based on the principle of sustainable development requires the development of mechanisms for mutual benefits. These will be the economic mechanisms, technical and technological, and social. All these mechanisms are concentrated in clusters. Pursue sustainable development policies, an emphasis on environmental protection will be the general element for them a competitive advantage. Sustainable development will in this case be both the agent and the goal of economic and entrepreneurship development. Basing on the assumption that economic development is possible through the achievement of competitive advantage, sustainable development should be treated as its source.

  20. Stochastic Pi-calculus Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardelli, Luca; Mardare, Radu Iulian

    2013-01-01

    We develop a version of stochastic Pi-calculus with a semantics based on measure theory. We dene the behaviour of a process in a rate environment using measures over the measurable space of processes induced by structural congruence. We extend the stochastic bisimulation to include the concept of...

  1. Problematic aspects of the economic value added measure in environment of the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaela Beranová

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The EVA indicator has been constructed in the recent past as a reaction to requirements of the new economic environment. As the EVA indicator has been introduced by Stewart Stern & Co. in the early nineties, past two decades many economists have been discussing the pros and cons of EVA application as well as various adjustments needed to calculate some relevant result. A range of attitudes to the adjustments to accounting data towards economic data exist there. As the indicator of economic value added is considered to be a criterion of company’s real economic performance it is necessary to be very careful at applying encouraged adjustments. In this article, the authors compare and discuss these adjustments advised in order to reach some ideal number. Accounting differences of US GAAP, IFRS and Czech Accounting Standards are taken into consideration.

  2. Course of change in economic and social environment associated with energy. Population, life, industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimatsu, Michio

    1988-03-01

    As regards long-term forecast of economic and social environment in Japan, STANDARD economic and social vision based on the course of economical growth was adopted in the report of LONG-TERM VISION OF ENERGY INDUSTRY. The average annual economic growth rate is expected to be still a little higher than the average of that of the developed countries, being supported by the industiral activities by industries engaged in frontier science, manufacturing industries engaged in electrical processing and assembling, etc. In the primary and secondary industries, the number of employees may drop down to about one third. Tokyo may become the center of finance and information surpassing New York and London. The people may enjoy a rich, confortable and cultural life. Problems may arise from enhancement of individualism, increase in advanced aged population, acturization of regional differentials, etc. (3 figs, 3 tabs)

  3. Optimal stochastic energy management of retailer based on selling price determination under smart grid environment in the presence of demand response program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nojavan, Sayyad; Zare, Kazem; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Stochastic energy management of retailer under smart grid environment is proposed. • Optimal selling price is determined in the smart grid environment. • Fixed, time-of-use and real-time pricing are determined for selling to customers. • Charge/discharge of ESS is determined to increase the expected profit of retailer. • Demand response program is proposed to increase the expected profit of retailer. - Abstract: In this paper, bilateral contracting and selling price determination problems for an electricity retailer in the smart grid environment under uncertainties have been considered. Multiple energy procurement sources containing pool market (PM), bilateral contracts (BCs), distributed generation (DG) units, renewable energy sources (photovoltaic (PV) system and wind turbine (WT)) and energy storage system (ESS) as well as demand response program (DRP) as virtual generation unit are considered. The scenario-based stochastic framework is used for uncertainty modeling of pool market prices, client group demand and variable climate condition containing temperature, irradiation and wind speed. In the proposed model, the selling price is determined and compared by the retailer in the smart grid in three cases containing fixed pricing, time-of-use (TOU) pricing and real-time pricing (RTP). It is shown that the selling price determination based on RTP by the retailer leads to higher expected profit. Furthermore, demand response program (DRP) has been implemented to flatten the load profile to minimize the cost for end-user customers as well as increasing the retailer profit. To validate the proposed model, three case studies are used and the results are compared.

  4. Medical imaging technology shock and volatility of macro economics: Analysis using a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shurong; Huang, Yeqing

    2017-07-07

    The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.

  5. Modelling the heat dynamics of a monitored Test Reference Environment for Building Integrated Photovoltaic systems using stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lodi, C.; Bacher, Peder; Cipriano, J.

    2012-01-01

    reduce the ventilation thermal losses of the building by pre-heating the fresh air. Furthermore, by decreasing PV module temperature, the ventilation air heat extraction can simultaneously increase electrical and thermal energy production of the building. A correct prediction of the PV module temperature...... and heat transfer coefficients is fundamental in order to improve the thermo-electrical production.The considered grey-box models are composed of a set of continuous time stochastic differential equations, holding the physical description of the system, combined with a set of discrete time measurement......This paper deals with grey-box modelling of the energy transfer of a double skin Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) system. Grey-box models are based on a combination of prior physical knowledge and statistics, which enable identification of the unknown parameters in the system and accurate...

  6. Fuzzy Stochastic Optimization Theory, Models and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Shuming

    2012-01-01

    Covering in detail both theoretical and practical perspectives, this book is a self-contained and systematic depiction of current fuzzy stochastic optimization that deploys the fuzzy random variable as a core mathematical tool to model the integrated fuzzy random uncertainty. It proceeds in an orderly fashion from the requisite theoretical aspects of the fuzzy random variable to fuzzy stochastic optimization models and their real-life case studies.   The volume reflects the fact that randomness and fuzziness (or vagueness) are two major sources of uncertainty in the real world, with significant implications in a number of settings. In industrial engineering, management and economics, the chances are high that decision makers will be confronted with information that is simultaneously probabilistically uncertain and fuzzily imprecise, and optimization in the form of a decision must be made in an environment that is doubly uncertain, characterized by a co-occurrence of randomness and fuzziness. This book begins...

  7. Stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Parzen, Emanuel

    1962-01-01

    Well-written and accessible, this classic introduction to stochastic processes and related mathematics is appropriate for advanced undergraduate students of mathematics with a knowledge of calculus and continuous probability theory. The treatment offers examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models, and it develops the methods of probability model-building.Chapter 1 presents precise definitions of the notions of a random variable and a stochastic process and introduces the Wiener and Poisson processes. Subsequent chapters examine

  8. Analysis on the relationship between economic development and water environment pollution in Shandong province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Zhang, Zhengxian

    2018-02-01

    With the continuous development of the economy of the Shandong Province watershed, a large number of pollutant emission, resulting in water quality of the basin has undergone significant changes. To study the Shandong Province watershed economic development and the relationship between the discharge of pollutants, in this paper, the relationship between economic growth and pollutant emissions in the Shandong Province watershed was established by Shandong Province watershed in 2002-2015 per capita GDP and wastewater, COD, ammonia nitrogen(AN) pollutant emissions. The data were analyzed by software such as SPSS, and the cubic equation model between various pollutants and economic indexes was fitted. To further make the relationship between pollutants and economic development map to study the conventional pollutant emissions and economic development trends. It is found that only the relationship between industrial wastewater discharge and per capita GDP is most coordinated, that is, industrial wastewater emissions with the continuous development of the basin economy, showing a tendency to rise first and then fall. Finally, ultimately based on the results of the study of the water environment and economic development proposals were proposed.

  9. Physical activity patterns of ethnic children from low socio-economic environments within the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyre, Emma Lisa Jane; Duncan, Michael Joseph; Birch, Samantha Louise; Cox, Valerie; Blackett, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Many children fail to meet physical activity (PA) guidelines for health benefits. PA behaviours are complex and depend on numerous interrelated factors. The study aims to develop current understanding of how children from low Socio-economic environments within the UK use their surrounding built environments for PA by using advanced technology. The environment was assessed in 96 school children (7-9 years) using global positioning system (GPS) monitoring (Garmin Forerunner, 305). In a subsample of 46 children, the environment and PA were assessed using an integrated GPS and heart rate monitor. The percentage of time spent indoor, outdoor, in green and non-green environments along with time spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) in indoor and outdoor environments were assessed. A 2-by-2 repeated measures analysis of covariance, controlling for body mass index, BF%, assessed the environmental differences. The findings show that 42% of children from deprived wards of Coventry fail to meet PA guidelines, of which 43% was accumulated during school. Children engaged in more MVPA outdoor than indoor environments (P outdoors was negatively associated with BF%. In conclusion, outdoor environments are important for health-enhancing PA and reducing fatness in deprived and ethnic children.

  10. Stochastic quantization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klauder, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    The author provides an introductory survey to stochastic quantization in which he outlines this new approach for scalar fields, gauge fields, fermion fields, and condensed matter problems such as electrons in solids and the statistical mechanics of quantum spins. (Auth.)

  11. Brownian motion and stochastic calculus

    CERN Document Server

    Karatzas, Ioannis

    1998-01-01

    This book is designed as a text for graduate courses in stochastic processes. It is written for readers familiar with measure-theoretic probability and discrete-time processes who wish to explore stochastic processes in continuous time. The vehicle chosen for this exposition is Brownian motion, which is presented as the canonical example of both a martingale and a Markov process with continuous paths. In this context, the theory of stochastic integration and stochastic calculus is developed. The power of this calculus is illustrated by results concerning representations of martingales and change of measure on Wiener space, and these in turn permit a presentation of recent advances in financial economics (option pricing and consumption/investment optimization). This book contains a detailed discussion of weak and strong solutions of stochastic differential equations and a study of local time for semimartingales, with special emphasis on the theory of Brownian local time. The text is complemented by a large num...

  12. Population growth, economic development and carrying capacity of the environment - are they compatible or in conflict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. F. Heydom

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In South Africa, as in many other countries, human population growth is currently reaching levels which render competition for basic human needs such as land and water, inevitable. Concurrent to population growth is the absolute necessity for economic development and job opportunities which, in turn, make tremendous demands upon the environment and natural resource base. As a consequence ever greater emphasis is placed by the news media on apparent conflicts between industrial development and social needs on the one hand, and conservation of the environment and natural resources on the other.

  13. Community health centers' impact on the political and economic environment: the Massachusetts example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, James W

    2005-01-01

    Since their inception in 1965, community health centers have thrived against tough odds, including patchwork funding, an unpredictable public policy environment, and a volatile healthcare marketplace. Much of this long-term success has been attributed to the centers' ability to affect their economic and political environment. Massachusetts provides an excellent example of this outward orientation. It was here that the centers first took hold, grew rapidly as a result of grassroots activity, and came together as a group for advocacy and mutual assistance. This article examines the Massachusetts experience in light of the health centers' ability to survive and grow.

  14. EFFECTS OF HIGH ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF INDUSTRIAL BRANCHES ON HUMAN LIFE QUALITY AND ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doguş Deniz Özarslan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Importance of industrialization which has a role in determination of the civilization levels of societies is increasing everyday due to meet rapidly increasing demands. However this process has led up to environmental problems with time and thus effects on quality of human life also brought along. In this study, three sectors were selected among different branches of industry according to their economical importance in Turkey. These sectors are paper, metal and construction chemicals industry. Production processes of selected sectors were examined and effects of production stages on the environment and human health as well as their contribution to sustainable development were investigated. Well known Turkish companies from each industrial branch were evaluated in detail. These industrial sectors having economic importance are compared to each other according to their effects on quality of human life and environment and the results are evaluated accordingly.

  15. Symposium on Pacific Energy Cooperation '99. Changing economic environment and energy cooperation in Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-16

    Compiled in this publication are the papers delivered at the above conference held in Tokyo on February 16-17, 1999. Presented in Session 1, entitled 'economic reforms and energy situation in Asian countries,' are the causes and lessons of economic and financial crisis in the Asian countries and the prospect of restoration; the outlook of energy supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region; and a message from APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference) Okinawa Energy Ministers' Meeting. Discussed in Session 2, entitled 'energy security in the Asia Pacific region,' are the outlook for world oil prices; and the stable supply of oil and gas in the Asia Pacific region. Discussed in Session 3, entitled the 'deregulation of the energy sector in the Asia Pacific region,' are the deregulation of the power sector, progress and problems; and the privatization of the oil and gas sectors. Many papers are presented also in Session 4, entitled the 'energy and environment in the Asia Pacific region, and in Session 5 entitled 'pacific energy cooperation in the changing economic and energy environment.' (NEDO)

  16. Symposium on Pacific Energy Cooperation '99. Changing economic environment and energy cooperation in Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-16

    Compiled in this publication are the papers delivered at the above conference held in Tokyo on February 16-17, 1999. Presented in Session 1, entitled 'economic reforms and energy situation in Asian countries,' are the causes and lessons of economic and financial crisis in the Asian countries and the prospect of restoration; the outlook of energy supply and demand in the Asia Pacific region; and a message from APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference) Okinawa Energy Ministers' Meeting. Discussed in Session 2, entitled 'energy security in the Asia Pacific region,' are the outlook for world oil prices; and the stable supply of oil and gas in the Asia Pacific region. Discussed in Session 3, entitled the 'deregulation of the energy sector in the Asia Pacific region,' are the deregulation of the power sector, progress and problems; and the privatization of the oil and gas sectors. Many papers are presented also in Session 4, entitled the 'energy and environment in the Asia Pacific region, and in Session 5 entitled 'pacific energy cooperation in the changing economic and energy environment.' (NEDO)

  17. Evaluating the impact of built environment characteristics on urban boundary layer dynamics using an advanced stochastic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Song

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban land–atmosphere interactions can be captured by numerical modeling framework with coupled land surface and atmospheric processes, while the model performance depends largely on accurate input parameters. In this study, we use an advanced stochastic approach to quantify parameter uncertainty and model sensitivity of a coupled numerical framework for urban land–atmosphere interactions. It is found that the development of urban boundary layer is highly sensitive to surface characteristics of built terrains. Changes of both urban land use and geometry impose significant impact on the overlying urban boundary layer dynamics through modification on bottom boundary conditions, i.e., by altering surface energy partitioning and surface aerodynamic resistance, respectively. Hydrothermal properties of conventional and green roofs have different impacts on atmospheric dynamics due to different surface energy partitioning mechanisms. Urban geometry (represented by the canyon aspect ratio, however, has a significant nonlinear impact on boundary layer structure and temperature. Besides, managing rooftop roughness provides an alternative option to change the boundary layer thermal state through modification of the vertical turbulent transport. The sensitivity analysis deepens our insight into the fundamental physics of urban land–atmosphere interactions and provides useful guidance for urban planning under challenges of changing climate and continuous global urbanization.

  18. Marginal socio-economic effects of an employer's efforts to improve the work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezagholi, Mahmoud

    2018-01-01

    Workplace health promotion (WHP) strongly requires the employer's efforts to improve the psychosocial, ergonomic, and physical environments of the workplace. There are many studies discussing the socio-economic advantage of WHP intervention programmes and thus the internal and external factors motivating employers to implement and integrate such programmes. However, the socio-economic impacts of the employer's multifactorial efforts to improve the work environment need to be adequately assessed. Data were collected from Swedish company Sandvik Materials Technology (SMT) through a work environment survey in April 2014. Different regression equations were analysed to assess marginal effects of the employer's efforts on overall labour effectiveness (OLE), informal work impairments (IWI), lost working hours (LWH), and labour productivity loss (LPL) in terms of money. The employer's multifactorial efforts resulted in increasing OLE, decreasing IWI and illness-related LWH, and cost savings in terms of decreasing LPL. Environmental factors at the workplace are the important determinant factor for OLE, and the latter is where socio-economic impacts of the employer's efforts primarily manifest.

  19. Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

    2008-01-01

    In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

  20. Stochastic resonance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wellens, Thomas; Shatokhin, Vyacheslav; Buchleitner, Andreas

    2004-01-01

    We are taught by conventional wisdom that the transmission and detection of signals is hindered by noise. However, during the last two decades, the paradigm of stochastic resonance (SR) proved this assertion wrong: indeed, addition of the appropriate amount of noise can boost a signal and hence facilitate its detection in a noisy environment. Due to its simplicity and robustness, SR has been implemented by mother nature on almost every scale, thus attracting interdisciplinary interest from physicists, geologists, engineers, biologists and medical doctors, who nowadays use it as an instrument for their specific purposes. At the present time, there exist a lot of diversified models of SR. Taking into account the progress achieved in both theoretical understanding and practical application of this phenomenon, we put the focus of the present review not on discussing in depth technical details of different models and approaches but rather on presenting a general and clear physical picture of SR on a pedagogical level. Particular emphasis will be given to the implementation of SR in generic quantum systems-an issue that has received limited attention in earlier review papers on the topic. The major part of our presentation relies on the two-state model of SR (or on simple variants thereof), which is general enough to exhibit the main features of SR and, in fact, covers many (if not most) of the examples of SR published so far. In order to highlight the diversity of the two-state model, we shall discuss several examples from such different fields as condensed matter, nonlinear and quantum optics and biophysics. Finally, we also discuss some situations that go beyond the generic SR scenario but are still characterized by a constructive role of noise

  1. STOCHASTIC ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIAN STOCHASTIC ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    STOCHASTIC ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIAN WOOD FOR BRIDGE DECKS ... abandoned bridges with defects only in their decks in both rural and urban locations can be effectively .... which can be seen as the detection of rare physical.

  2. ENGLISH LANGUAGE IN THE ROMANIAN ECONOMIC FIELD AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT: A NECESSITY OR A FAD?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Condruz-Bacescu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present article is to analyse the influence of anglicisms in the Romanian economic field and business environment. English influence in Romanian, very pronounced in the current European languages, is accomplished both by taking massive lexical elements and by assigning meanings of English borrowings to Romanian words. The emergence of English words’ borrowings in our country is due to the current socio-political conditions and widening of economic-financial relations with the Western world, the English words being used by specialists for communication and information in all fields, as well as speakers who tend to practice English as the international language of communication. Major transformations in the international social-economic organization imposed the development of modern disciplines: finance, statistics, management, marketing, business administration, whose languages are subordinated to the economic field. The research is intended to provide examples of English borrowings used in the economic language. English terms, specialized or not, especially in the form of a borrowing, penetrate directly in all economic subdomains, by virtue of an interference trend (manifested internationally concerning terminologies and the relations of specialized vocabulary with the usual one. One way of English terms entering the Romanian language is the specialised texts. The article also points out terminology concerning conditions of delivery and international business transactions. The written or spoken media contributes greatly to the spread of anglicisms that inform the public on various issues and developments in the social, political, cultural and economic aspects, nationally and internationally, having an important role in English vocabulary’ modernization by borrowing from English. The conclusion of the article is that with all the difficulties of adapting to the linguistic system of the Romanian language, the English

  3. Is economic growth good or bad for the environment? Empirical evidence from Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Jungho; Kim, Hyun Seok

    2013-01-01

    The effects of economic growth on the environment in Korea, for a given level of energy consumption, and fossil fuels and nuclear energy in electricity production, are examined in a dynamic cointegration framework. To that end, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used. We find empirical evidence supporting the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Korea; that is, economic growth indeed plays a favorable role in influencing environmental outcomes. It is also found that, in both the short- and long-run, nuclear energy has a beneficial effect on environmental quality, whereas fossil fuels in electricity production and energy consumption have a detrimental effect on the environment. - Highlights: ► We examine the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Korea. ► The model includes the roles of energy consumption and electricity production. ► We find the existence of the EKC hypothesis for Korea. ► Nuclear energy is found to have a beneficial effect on the environment. ► Fossil fuels and energy consumption have a detrimental effect on the environment

  4. Intellectual capital: approaches to analysis as an object of the internal environment of an economic entity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. E. Ustinova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Intellectual capital is of strategic importance for a modern company. At the same time, its effective management, including a stimulating and creative approach to solving problems, will help to increase the competitiveness and development of economic entities. The article considers intellectual capital as an object of analysis of the internal environment. In the context of the proposed approaches to its study, its impact on the development of the company is also considered. The intellectual capital has a special significance and influence on internal processes, since on each of them the intellectual component allows to achieve a positive synergetic effect from the interaction of different objects. In more detail, it is proposed to consider it in terms of the position of the company it occupies on the market, the principles of its activities, the formation of marketing policies, the use of resources, methods and means of making managerial decisions, and the organizational culture formed. For the analysis of the state of the internal environment, the main approaches are proposed, in which the intellectual capital is considered, among them: methods for analyzing cash flows, economic efficiency and financial feasibility of the project, analysis of the consolidated financial flow by group of objects, assessment of the potential of the business entity, technology of choice of investment policy, technology Selection of incentive mechanisms. In this regard, it is advisable to analyze the company's internal environment from the position of influencing its state of intellectual capital. The scheme of interaction of intellectual capital and objects of an estimation of an internal environment of the managing subject is offered. The results of this study should be considered as initial data for the further development of the economic evaluation of the influence of intellectual capital on the competitiveness of companies.

  5. Transformation of the Terminological Apparatus of Economic Development of Innovation Activity under Conditions of Dynamic Changes in the External Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharko Margarita V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to analyze the content interpretation of categorical concepts of economic development of production functioning under conditions of dynamic changes in the exploitation of the external environment. The article presents the author’s interpretation of the concepts of economic development and economic growth under conditions of dynamic changes in the external environment. The urgency of unification and systematization of the main interpretations of economic growth as a means of choosing and using certain management solutions under specific production conditions is substantiated. Based on the construction of the Ishikawa diagram, the reasons and difficulties of the economic growth of enterprises are graded. The conditions and factors of the conceptual apparatus of innovation activity under uncertainty are structured. It is shown that the complex application of iterative methods and methods of factor analysis provides a holistic perception of the dominant tendencies of economic development under conditions of dynamic changes in the external environment.

  6. Economic Instruments and the Environment: Can Natural Resources be Maneged Exclusively by the Market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Júlio Vitral Amaro

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The advent of industrial economies coincides with the emergence of the economy as an autonomous discipline and with the question, not hitherto placed on the “value of nature”. As the basis of any theory of the first economists was the statement that every "value" is the work of man, was a fragile theoretical nature of the classics, since this is not the result of human labor. So, to circumvent the problem of fixing the "values​​" intrinsic to nature, environmental economics, in its most widespread version, part of the statement that assigns what is "value" is not exactly the environment or environmental resources but people's preferences in relation to changes in quality or quantity supplied of natural resource. The idea of ​​transaction rights on the environment (in fact, the right to pollute found resonance in the United States with "certified environmental" measures to better control pollution. They are traded for several polluting companies that can, in turn, trade them in the market for environmental permits. Remember that in any arrangement in which disputing parties settle in reaction conditions supposedly equal, makes a big difference the presence of those more able to lobby and power to influence public opinion. It is seen, even with the refinement that achieves economic analysis by incorporating as legitimate rights of non pollution, yet there is no guarantee the order of environmental damage if the whole issue be restricted to the context of the economic approach simply.

  7. Coupled Human-Environment Dynamics of Forest Pest Spread and Control in a Multi-Patch, Stochastic Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Qasim; Bauch, Chris T; Anand, Madhur

    2015-01-01

    The transportation of camp firewood infested by non-native forest pests such as Asian long-horned beetle (ALB) and emerald ash borer (EAB) has severe impacts on North American forests. Once invasive forest pests are established, it can be difficult to eradicate them. Hence, preventing the long-distance transport of firewood by individuals is crucial. Here we develop a stochastic simulation model that captures the interaction between forest pest infestations and human decisions regarding firewood transportation. The population of trees is distributed across 10 patches (parks) comprising a "low volume" partition of 5 patches that experience a low volume of park visitors, and a "high volume" partition of 5 patches experiencing a high visitor volume. The infestation spreads within a patch--and also between patches--according to the probability of between-patch firewood transportation. Individuals decide to transport firewood or buy it locally based on the costs of locally purchased versus transported firewood, social norms, social learning, and level of concern for observed infestations. We find that the average time until a patch becomes infested depends nonlinearly on many model parameters. In particular, modest increases in the tree removal rate, modest increases in public concern for infestation, and modest decreases in the cost of locally purchased firewood, relative to baseline (current) values, cause very large increases in the average time until a patch becomes infested due to firewood transport from other patches, thereby better preventing long-distance spread. Patches that experience lower visitor volumes benefit more from firewood movement restrictions than patches that experience higher visitor volumes. Also, cross-patch infestations not only seed new infestations, they can also worsen existing infestations to a surprising extent: long-term infestations are more intense in the high volume patches than the low volume patches, even when infestation is already

  8. Quantum stochastics

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Mou-Hsiung

    2015-01-01

    The classical probability theory initiated by Kolmogorov and its quantum counterpart, pioneered by von Neumann, were created at about the same time in the 1930s, but development of the quantum theory has trailed far behind. Although highly appealing, the quantum theory has a steep learning curve, requiring tools from both probability and analysis and a facility for combining the two viewpoints. This book is a systematic, self-contained account of the core of quantum probability and quantum stochastic processes for graduate students and researchers. The only assumed background is knowledge of the basic theory of Hilbert spaces, bounded linear operators, and classical Markov processes. From there, the book introduces additional tools from analysis, and then builds the quantum probability framework needed to support applications to quantum control and quantum information and communication. These include quantum noise, quantum stochastic calculus, stochastic quantum differential equations, quantum Markov semigrou...

  9. When three traits make a line: evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation through linear reaction norms in stochastic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergon, T; Ergon, R

    2017-03-01

    Genetic assimilation emerges from selection on phenotypic plasticity. Yet, commonly used quantitative genetics models of linear reaction norms considering intercept and slope as traits do not mimic the full process of genetic assimilation. We argue that intercept-slope reaction norm models are insufficient representations of genetic effects on linear reaction norms and that considering reaction norm intercept as a trait is unfortunate because the definition of this trait relates to a specific environmental value (zero) and confounds genetic effects on reaction norm elevation with genetic effects on environmental perception. Instead, we suggest a model with three traits representing genetic effects that, respectively, (i) are independent of the environment, (ii) alter the sensitivity of the phenotype to the environment and (iii) determine how the organism perceives the environment. The model predicts that, given sufficient additive genetic variation in environmental perception, the environmental value at which reaction norms tend to cross will respond rapidly to selection after an abrupt environmental change, and eventually becomes equal to the new mean environment. This readjustment of the zone of canalization becomes completed without changes in genetic correlations, genetic drift or imposing any fitness costs of maintaining plasticity. The asymptotic evolutionary outcome of this three-trait linear reaction norm generally entails a lower degree of phenotypic plasticity than the two-trait model, and maximum expected fitness does not occur at the mean trait values in the population. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

  10. Marketing of Public and Business Affairs Subsystems of Socio-Economic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Grigorescu

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian society is crossing one of the most important stages of its transition toward the integration in the European Union started with January 1st, 2007; this will define the final processes bound for the socio-economic reconstruction. Based on the previous experiences, an assumption rose up that, at this moment in the Romanian society there are two systems business and public administration, placed on opposite, antagonistic, unfriendly sides. At the same time, there is the opinion that a proper public and private marketing could be the link between them. The link between these systems should make the relation useful to create and handle the cooperation and cooperation climate in these two environments. The paper aims to present the systems, their characteristics, the opinion about the other, the identified link components, and to propose a solution for the link improvement. A small survey of the members opinions, in both systems, will be the base of the analysis. The first stage is to analyze each environment as an independent system: business system (BSy and public administration system (PASy. We will present the structure, characteristics, interactions with other socio-economic components, etc. The second stage will focus on the role of public and private marketing as tools of feedback reaction of the systems to the general environment dynamics. The marketing behavior is typical for the BSy and its level of marketing knowledge is higher than the poor level of marketing knowledge in PASy lacking the marketing attitude about public services.

  11. Automobiles and environment - also an economic problem. Kraftfahrzeug und Umwelt - auch ein oekonomisches Problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mager, N

    1981-01-01

    The proliferation of cars since the early 60's and the resulting increasing spatial mobility have contributed to a considerable rise of wealth in economies based on the division of labour, it also had an influence on the creation of new or extension of existing areas of liberty. These undisputably positive effects are of the widerspread private use of cars are correlated with harmful effects on our environment. In some areas they have increased so much as to necessitate when more intensive efforts are in order to reduce pollution. The present thesis aims at describing and discussing the economic problems connected with exhaust gas control. A comprehensive economic analysis of the enviromental damages caused by automobiles and of the corresponding counterstrategies of ecologic policy must by based on the state of pollution existing in reality. The thesis therefore starts with a brief survey on the effective pollution caused by road traffic and automobiles in the Federal Republic of Germany.

  12. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  13. Stochastic cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bisognano, J.; Leemann, C.

    1982-03-01

    Stochastic cooling is the damping of betatron oscillations and momentum spread of a particle beam by a feedback system. In its simplest form, a pickup electrode detects the transverse positions or momenta of particles in a storage ring, and the signal produced is amplified and applied downstream to a kicker. The time delay of the cable and electronics is designed to match the transit time of particles along the arc of the storage ring between the pickup and kicker so that an individual particle receives the amplified version of the signal it produced at the pick-up. If there were only a single particle in the ring, it is obvious that betatron oscillations and momentum offset could be damped. However, in addition to its own signal, a particle receives signals from other beam particles. In the limit of an infinite number of particles, no damping could be achieved; we have Liouville's theorem with constant density of the phase space fluid. For a finite, albeit large number of particles, there remains a residue of the single particle damping which is of practical use in accumulating low phase space density beams of particles such as antiprotons. It was the realization of this fact that led to the invention of stochastic cooling by S. van der Meer in 1968. Since its conception, stochastic cooling has been the subject of much theoretical and experimental work. The earliest experiments were performed at the ISR in 1974, with the subsequent ICE studies firmly establishing the stochastic cooling technique. This work directly led to the design and construction of the Antiproton Accumulator at CERN and the beginnings of p anti p colliding beam physics at the SPS. Experiments in stochastic cooling have been performed at Fermilab in collaboration with LBL, and a design is currently under development for a anti p accumulator for the Tevatron

  14. Exposure levels due to WLAN devices in indoor environments corrected by a time-amplitude factor of distribution of the quasi-stochastic signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miclaus, Simona; Bechet, Paul; Stratakis, Dimitrios

    2014-01-01

    With the development of radiofrequency technology, radiating quasi-stochastic signals like the wireless local area networks (WLAN), a proper procedure of exposure level assessment is needed. No standardised procedure exists at the moment. While channel power measurement proved to overestimate the field strength, weighting techniques were proposed. The paper compares the exposure levels determined by three different procedures, two of them correcting the field level by weighting. Twenty-three experimental cases of WLAN traffic load are analysed in an indoor environment in controlled conditions. The results show the differences obtained when the duty cycle (DC) method is applied comparatively with the application of weighting based on an amplitude-time correction. Significant exposure level reductions of 52.6-79.2 % from the field determined by frequency domain method and of 36.5-72.8 % from the field determined by the DC weighting method were obtained by time-amplitude method. Specificities of weighting factors probability density functions were investigated and regression analysis was applied for a detailed characterisation of this procedure. (authors)

  15. Into the Twenty-First Century: Harmonizing energy policy, environment, and sustainable economic growth. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Economic trade liberalization and the restructuring of the energy industries to promote competition, two trends well underway, have not eliminated the need for thoughtful policy action, although they have significantly transformed the policymaking environment. New policy initiatives must be compatible with the growing competition within energy industries. And while governments are beginning to remove themselves from the natural gas and electricity markets, their policy choices for organizing these industries will shape energy balances and prices in these and other energy markets. The 18th Annual International Conference of the IAEE addresses these and other major policy issues and how energy industries can operate successfully in an era of acute economic, political, and scientific uncertainty. An overarching objective has been to provide the interface between new frontiers in economic and energy analysis and the application of these techniques toward further understanding of policy and industry options. The papers included in this Proceedings volume have not been peer reviewed but were selected by the conference program chairman and committee on the basis of their contribution to the overall conference themes. The conference program committee (see page iii) organized a number of the key sessions on a wide range of important issues. David L. Williams, Jr. was particularly effective in supporting the committee in organizing the program and publishing this volume

  16. Environment and Economic Growth. Is Technical Change the Key to Decoupling?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galeotti, M. [Universita di Milano, Milan (Italy)

    2003-09-01

    The relationship between economic growth and pollution is very complex, depending upon a host of different factors. Thus the study of this phenomenon represents a challenging endeavor. While most economics papers begin with theory and support that theory with econometric evidence, the literature on Environmental Kuznets Curves has proceeded in the opposite direction: first developing an empirical observation about the world, and then attempting to supply appropriate theories. A number of papers have aimed at providing the theoretical underpinnings to the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Prominent here is the class of optimal growth models. These are usually studied from the point of view of the analytical conditions that must hold in order to obtain an inverted-U functional relationship between pollution and growth. These models are however seldom confronted with the data. In this paper we take one popular optimal growth model designed for climate change policy analysis and carry out a few simulation exercises with the purpose of characterizing the relationship between economic growth and emissions. In particular, we try to assess the relative contribution of the ingredients of the well-known decomposition of the environment-growth relationship put forth by Grossman (1995): according to it, the presumed inverted-U pattern results from the joint effect of scale, composition, and technology components. We do this focusing on the developed regions of the world and on a global pollutant, CO2 emissions.

  17. Environment contamination by mycotoxins and their occurrence in food and feed: Physiological aspects and economical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capcarova, Marcela; Zbynovska, Katarina; Kalafova, Anna; Bulla, Jozef; Bielik, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The contamination of food and feed by mycotoxins as toxic metabolites of fungi is a risk not only for consumers resulting in various embarrassment regarding health status and well-being, but also for producers, companies and export market on the ground of economic losses and ruined stability of economic trade. As it is given in historical evidence, the contamination of food by mycotoxins is a topic as old as a history of mankind, finding some evidence even in the ancient books and records. Nowadays, the mycotoxins are used in modern biotechnological laboratories and are considered an agent for targeting the specific cells (e.g., defected cells to eliminate them). However, this promising procedure is only the beginning. More concern is focused on mycotoxins as abiotic hazard agents. The dealing with them, systematic monitoring, and development of techniques for their elimination from agricultural commodities are worldwide issues concerning all countries. They can be found alone or in co-occurrence with other mycotoxins. Thus, this review aims to provide widened information regarding mycotoxins contamination in environment with the consequences on health of animals and humans. The inevitability for more data that correctly determine the risk points linked to mycotoxins occurrence and their specific reactions in the environment is demonstrated. This review includes various symptoms in animals and humans that result from mycotoxin exposure. For better understanding of mycotoxin's impact on animals, the sensitivities of various animal species to various mycotoxins are listed. Strategies for elimination and preventing the risks of mycotoxins contamination as well as economical approach are discussed. To complete the topic, some data from past as historical evidences are presented.

  18. Essentials of stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Durrett, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatm...

  19. Dynamic stochastic optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Ermoliev, Yuri; Pflug, Georg

    2004-01-01

    Uncertainties and changes are pervasive characteristics of modern systems involving interactions between humans, economics, nature and technology. These systems are often too complex to allow for precise evaluations and, as a result, the lack of proper management (control) may create significant risks. In order to develop robust strategies we need approaches which explic­ itly deal with uncertainties, risks and changing conditions. One rather general approach is to characterize (explicitly or implicitly) uncertainties by objec­ tive or subjective probabilities (measures of confidence or belief). This leads us to stochastic optimization problems which can rarely be solved by using the standard deterministic optimization and optimal control methods. In the stochastic optimization the accent is on problems with a large number of deci­ sion and random variables, and consequently the focus ofattention is directed to efficient solution procedures rather than to (analytical) closed-form solu­ tions. Objective an...

  20. Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

    2018-03-15

    Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

  1. Stochastic wave-function simulation of irreversible emission processes for open quantum systems in a non-Markovian environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, Evgeny A.; Rubtsov, Alexey N.

    2018-02-01

    When conducting the numerical simulation of quantum transport, the main obstacle is a rapid growth of the dimension of entangled Hilbert subspace. The Quantum Monte Carlo simulation techniques, while being capable of treating the problems of high dimension, are hindered by the so-called "sign problem". In the quantum transport, we have fundamental asymmetry between the processes of emission and absorption of environment excitations: the emitted excitations are rapidly and irreversibly scattered away. Whereas only a small part of these excitations is absorbed back by the open subsystem, thus exercising the non-Markovian self-action of the subsystem onto itself. We were able to devise a method for the exact simulation of the dominant quantum emission processes, while taking into account the small backaction effects in an approximate self-consistent way. Such an approach allows us to efficiently conduct simulations of real-time dynamics of small quantum subsystems immersed in non-Markovian bath for large times, reaching the quasistationary regime. As an example we calculate the spatial quench dynamics of Kondo cloud for a bozonized Kodno impurity model.

  2. Stochastic Analysis 2010

    CERN Document Server

    Crisan, Dan

    2011-01-01

    "Stochastic Analysis" aims to provide mathematical tools to describe and model high dimensional random systems. Such tools arise in the study of Stochastic Differential Equations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Geometry, Random Media and Interacting Particle Systems, Super-processes, Stochastic Filtering, Mathematical Finance, etc. Stochastic Analysis has emerged as a core area of late 20th century Mathematics and is currently undergoing a rapid scientific development. The special volume "Stochastic Analysis 2010" provides a sa

  3. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries

  4. Stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Borodin, Andrei N

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a rigorous yet accessible introduction to the theory of stochastic processes. A significant part of the book is devoted to the classic theory of stochastic processes. In turn, it also presents proofs of well-known results, sometimes together with new approaches. Moreover, the book explores topics not previously covered elsewhere, such as distributions of functionals of diffusions stopped at different random times, the Brownian local time, diffusions with jumps, and an invariance principle for random walks and local times. Supported by carefully selected material, the book showcases a wealth of examples that demonstrate how to solve concrete problems by applying theoretical results. It addresses a broad range of applications, focusing on concrete computational techniques rather than on abstract theory. The content presented here is largely self-contained, making it suitable for researchers and graduate students alike.

  5. Mathematical Ability and Socio-Economic Background: IRT Modeling to Estimate Genotype by Environment Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, Inga; Boomsma, Dorret I; van den Berg, Stéphanie M

    2017-12-01

    Genotype by environment interaction in behavioral traits may be assessed by estimating the proportion of variance that is explained by genetic and environmental influences conditional on a measured moderating variable, such as a known environmental exposure. Behavioral traits of interest are often measured by questionnaires and analyzed as sum scores on the items. However, statistical results on genotype by environment interaction based on sum scores can be biased due to the properties of a scale. This article presents a method that makes it possible to analyze the actually observed (phenotypic) item data rather than a sum score by simultaneously estimating the genetic model and an item response theory (IRT) model. In the proposed model, the estimation of genotype by environment interaction is based on an alternative parametrization that is uniquely identified and therefore to be preferred over standard parametrizations. A simulation study shows good performance of our method compared to analyzing sum scores in terms of bias. Next, we analyzed data of 2,110 12-year-old Dutch twin pairs on mathematical ability. Genetic models were evaluated and genetic and environmental variance components estimated as a function of a family's socio-economic status (SES). Results suggested that common environmental influences are less important in creating individual differences in mathematical ability in families with a high SES than in creating individual differences in mathematical ability in twin pairs with a low or average SES.

  6. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  7. Economic and agricultural transformation through large-scale farming : impacts of large-scale farming on local economic development, household food security and the environment in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekele, M.S.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined impacts of large-scale farming in Ethiopia on local economic development, household food security, incomes, employment, and the environment. The study adopted a mixed research approach in which both qualitative and quantitative data were generated from secondary and primary

  8. Survey of Attitudes towards Curriculum Reforms among Medical Teachersin Different Socio-economic and Cultural Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Mads Ronald

    2007-01-01

    Curriculum reforms in medical schools require cultural and conceptual changes from the faculty. We assessed attitudes towards curriculum reforms in different academic, economic, and social environments among 776 teachers from 2 Western European medical schools (Belgium and Denmark) and 7 medical...... schools in 3 countries in post-communist transition (Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina). The survey included a 5-point Likert-type scale on attitudes towards reforms in general and towards reforms of medical curriculum (10 items each). Teaching staff from medical schools in Bosnia and Herzegovina...... had more positive attitude towards reforms of medical curriculum (mean score 36.8 out of maximum 50 [95% CI 36.1 to 37.3]) than those from medical schools in Croatia or Slovenia (30.7 [29.8 to 31.6]) or Western Europe (27.7 [27.1 to 28.3]) (Pattitudes...

  9. Decoupling reconsidered: Does world society integration influence the relationship between the environment and economic development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longhofer, Wesley; Jorgenson, Andrew

    2017-07-01

    This study advances scholarship on environment and development by examining whether nations more embedded in the pro-environmental world society are more or less likely to experience a relative decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions over time. The authors calculate a network centrality measure using national-level membership data on environmental international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs), and then employ the measure to create four subsamples of nations that are relatively more or less integrated in the environmental world society. The authors use interactions between measures of economic development and time in two-way fixed effects models to estimate the potentially changing effects of development on carbon emissions for the four subsamples of nations from 1970 to 2009. Results indicate that nations that are the most embedded in the environmental world society experienced a moderate decrease through time in the effect of development on carbon emissions, while the effect of development on emissions increased through time in the most peripheral nations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Public economics and the environment in an imperfect world. An introductory summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovenberg, L.; Cnossen, S.

    1995-01-01

    Growing populations and economies have increased the public's awareness that the world's environment resources are finite. The issues of global warming and depletion of the ozone layer have given universal significance to what were once local and regional pollution problems. In this book the interface between public economics and environmental economics is examined. It is evident that Coasian negotiations fail to internalize the costs of environmental degradation often calling for public intervention through the market mechanism. In this book those issues are considered and contributions on assessment problems, institutional aspects, the need for coordination and efficiency and distribution issues are included. The papers in this volume were selected from 64 papers, presented at the 50th IIPF (International Institute of Public Finance) congress. In this chapter 15 contributions are summarized, grouped under the headings Introduction (Part 1), An Imperfect World (Part 2), Assessment Problems (Part 3), Institutional Aspects (Part 4), The Need for Coordination (Part 5), and Efficiency and Distribution Issues (Part 6). 9 refs

  11. US decommissioning strategy in today's regulatory, technical, political, and economic environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colvin, J.F.

    1995-01-01

    The United States commercial nuclear power industry is nearly forty years old. Soon after the turn of the century, the United States expects to see a significant rise in the number of plants requiring decommissioning. This, coupled with recent economic pressures which are impacting the U.S. electrical generation industry and have resulted in the premature shutdown of some nuclear power plants, heighten the need for clear regulations and standards addressing facility closure and decommissioning. Since the issue of decommissioning involves public health and safety, technical, environmental and financial aspects, this complex regulatory environment poses a major challenge to the industry in this area. There are three fundamental issues facing utilities as they develop strategies for the eventual decommissioning of their nuclear power plants. These issues are the regulatory approach to decommissioning, the question of the availability of adequate funding, including the uncertainty resulting from the uncertainty of waste disposal options, and the need to meet environmental standards for the protection of health and safety. Futhermore, these issues, in particular the economic-related issues, are magnified in the event of prematurely shut down nuclear power plant. (Author)

  12. Effects of regulation and economic environment on the electricity industry's competitiveness: A study based on OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, Chulwoo; Jung, Euy-Young; Lee, Jeong-Dong

    2014-01-01

    We propose a competitiveness index for the electricity industry based on efficiency, stability, and growth factors identified from previous studies subject to data accessibility. These are then weighted appropriately through the application of the analytical hierarchy process. This index is an alternative tool to capture the diverse characteristics of the electricity industry in order to analyze performance after deregulation. Using the competitiveness index, we analyze the effect of regulation change in specific economic environments represented by the level of economic development, energy intensity, and manufacturing share, for example. According to the results, deregulation generally increases competitiveness, but the effect depends on the economic environment and the type of regulation. Deregulating entry and vertical integration to increase competitiveness is more effective in countries where the level of economic development, energy intensity, and manufacturing share are low. The manner in which the privatization effect is related to the economic environment is, however, unclear. - Highlights: • This study proposes a competitiveness index for the electricity industry. • It examines the effects of electricity industry deregulation in OECD countries. • It suggests an economic environment in which deregulation can contribute to competitiveness

  13. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  14. Romanian Business Environment in the Context of Economic Competitiveness Based on Knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion STEGAROIU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The changes of production factors priorities affect more and more the evolution of global economy, requiring reorientation of development policies both at company level and at national economies level to adapt to the phenomenon called: “the new economy” or “knowledge economy”. If for classical economy the ability to compete - competitiveness- depends largely on the quantity or the amount of production factors, at the present, has gained importance the efficiency of their use. The idea of making this article appeared both from the necessity of a systematic research to approach the Romanian competitive environment and the desire to stoop to this important conference theme. We can certainly say that the actual business environment is characterized by a particularly dynamic due to changes that occur within it, especially under the impact of technical and scientific revolution which brought to the fore the knowledge as an essential element of achieving a high competitiveness. It is intended that the proposed theme of this article to have an economic importance for the actual information and adequacy of the current economy in Romania.

  15. VECTORS of change in the marine environment: Ecosystem and economic impacts and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austen, M. C.; Crowe, T. P.; Elliott, M.; Paterson, D. M.; Peck, M. A.; Piraino, S.

    2018-02-01

    Human use of the European marine environment is increasing and diversifying. This is creating new mechanisms for human induced-changes in marine life which need to be understood and quantified as well as the impact of these changes on ecosystems, their structures (e.g. biodiversity) and functioning (e.g. productivity), and the social and economic consequences that arise. The current and emerging pressures are multiple and interacting, arising, for example, from transport, platforms for renewable and non-renewable energy, exploitation of living and non-living resources, agricultural and industrial discharges, together with wider environmental changes (including climate change). Anticipating the future consequences of these pressures and vectors of change for marine life and of adaptation and mitigation measures (such as the introduction of new technologies and structures, new ballast water practices, ocean and offshore wind energy devices and new fishing strategies) is a prerequisite to the development and implementation of strategies, policies and regulations to manage the marine environment, such as the IMO Convention on ballast water management and the EU Maritime Policy and Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

  16. Stochastic kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombino, A.; Mosiello, R.; Norelli, F.; Jorio, V.M.; Pacilio, N.

    1975-01-01

    A nuclear system kinetics is formulated according to a stochastic approach. The detailed probability balance equations are written for the probability of finding the mixed population of neutrons and detected neutrons, i.e. detectrons, at a given level for a given instant of time. Equations are integrated in search of a probability profile: a series of cases is analyzed through a progressive criterium. It tends to take into account an increasing number of physical processes within the chosen model. The most important contribution is that solutions interpret analytically experimental conditions of equilibrium (moise analysis) and non equilibrium (pulsed neutron measurements, source drop technique, start up procedures)

  17. Stochastic Jeux

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romanu Ekaterini

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This article shows the similarities between Claude Debussy’s and Iannis Xenakis’ philosophy of music and work, in particular the formers Jeux and the latter’s Metastasis and the stochastic works succeeding it, which seem to proceed parallel (with no personal contact to what is perceived as the evolution of 20th century Western music. Those two composers observed the dominant (German tradition as outsiders, and negated some of its elements considered as constant or natural by "traditional" innovators (i.e. serialists: the linearity of musical texture, its form and rhythm.

  18. The New Environment of EU Enlargement: The Impact of Economic Crisis on the Western Balkans and their EU Accession Prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Ritsa Panagiotou

    2014-01-01

    This paper will explore the impact of the economic crisis on the Western Balkan countries, and how the new, unfavorable international environment is affecting their EU accession prospects. The analysis will be presented in three sections: the first part will examine the effect of the “first wave” of the global economic crisis on the economies of the region, specifically the impact on the region’s macroeconomic indicators, foreign direct investment flows, financial sectors, etc. Part two...

  19. Social, economic, and political processes that create built environment inequities: perspectives from urban African Americans in Atlanta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redwood, Yanique; Schulz, Amy J; Israel, Barbara A; Yoshihama, Mieko; Wang, Caroline C; Kreuter, Marshall

    2010-01-01

    Growing evidence suggests that the built environment features found in many high-poverty urban areas contribute to negative health outcomes. Both built environment hazards and negative health outcomes disproportionately affect poor people of color. We used community-based participatory research and Photovoice in inner-city Atlanta to elicit African Americans' perspectives on their health priorities. The built environment emerged as a critical factor, impacting physical and mental health outcomes. We offer a conceptual model, informed by residents' perspectives, linking social, economic, and political processes to built environment and health inequities. Research, practice, and policy implications are discussed within an environmental justice framework.

  20. THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ON ENTREPRENEURSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANGELA ROMAN

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The significant importance of entrepreneurship for the economic development, job creation and innovation have increased the concerns of researchers and decision makers at different levels for the understanding and investigation of the factors that could have an impact on the level of entrepreneurial activity. Our study aims to empirically investigate the impact of some main macroeconomic and business environment factors on the level of the entrepreneurial activity in 18 EU member states in the period from 2002 - 2014. Our research is based on the data provided by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM and by the World Bank and uses panel data estimation techniques. We took into consideration, as dependent variable for an econometric model, three indicators that are used as proxy variables of the level of entrepreneurial activity, namely: Total Entrepreneurial Activity rate, Nascent entrepreneurship rate, and New business ownership rate. We investigated eleven macroeconomic and business environment indicators, as the explanatory variables of our models, that could influence the level of the entrepreneurial activity in European countries: GDP growth, GDP per capita, unemployment, inflation, domestic credit to private sector by banks, fear of failure, entrepreneurial intentions, perceived capabilities, cost of business start-up procedures and time required to start a business. The empirical results highlight the fact that a large part of the explicative variables are significantly affecting the entrepreneurial activity, in agreement with the results of other empirical studies. Thus, the total entrepreneurial activity is influenced by unemployment rate, total tax rate, entrepreneurial intentions, perceived capabilities, cost of business start-up procedures and domestic credit to private sector. The other two dependent variables register some differences, however, overall, our study reveals that the key determinants of the entrepreneurial activity

  1. Stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Lanchier, Nicolas

    2017-01-01

    Three coherent parts form the material covered in this text, portions of which have not been widely covered in traditional textbooks. In this coverage the reader is quickly introduced to several different topics enriched with 175 exercises which focus on real-world problems. Exercises range from the classics of probability theory to more exotic research-oriented problems based on numerical simulations. Intended for graduate students in mathematics and applied sciences, the text provides the tools and training needed to write and use programs for research purposes. The first part of the text begins with a brief review of measure theory and revisits the main concepts of probability theory, from random variables to the standard limit theorems. The second part covers traditional material on stochastic processes, including martingales, discrete-time Markov chains, Poisson processes, and continuous-time Markov chains. The theory developed is illustrated by a variety of examples surrounding applications such as the ...

  2. STOCHASTIC FLOWS OF MAPPINGS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the stochastic flow of mappings generated by a Feller convolution semigroup on a compact metric space is studied. This kind of flow is the generalization of superprocesses of stochastic flows and stochastic diffeomorphism induced by the strong solutions of stochastic differential equations.

  3. Stochastic pump effect and geometric phases in dissipative and stochastic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The success of Berry phases in quantum mechanics stimulated the study of similar phenomena in other areas of physics, including the theory of living cell locomotion and motion of patterns in nonlinear media. More recently, geometric phases have been applied to systems operating in a strongly stochastic environment, such as molecular motors. We discuss such geometric effects in purely classical dissipative stochastic systems and their role in the theory of the stochastic pump effect (SPE).

  4. The Reality of Economic Growth towards Green Environment: A Study of Selected OECD Countries 1990-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilpi Gupta

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic growth and green environment has a direct relation with health, habitat and well being of our society which depends largely on the natural environment. But on the other side the society is neglecting and often ignoring the benefits that nature provides for economic prosperity. This paper studies the role of environment in economic growth, the role of environmental policy in achieving improved environmental results, closely examine the evidence of decoupling production from environmental damages and discuss decoupling in the context of global economy. In order to study these aspects, we explored our comparative research with special reference to selected eight OECD nations namely-France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Turkey, UK and USA with coverage period of 1990-2010. The selection of the countries is based on their prominence in industrialised world and their close economic bounding with each other over a considerable period. The coverage period in the study is 20 years because some of the emission data are available till 2013 and some only up to 2010. In order to do a comparative research on various dimensions we take in to our study period between1990-2010. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v3i3.11065 International Journal of Environment Vol.3(3 2014: 78-88

  5. Cost Sensitivity Analysis for Consolidated Interim Storage of Spent Fuel: Evaluating the Effect of Economic Environment Parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cumberland, Riley M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Williams, Kent Alan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jarrell, Joshua J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Joseph, III, Robert Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This report evaluates how the economic environment (i.e., discount rate, inflation rate, escalation rate) can impact previously estimated differences in lifecycle costs between an integrated waste management system with an interim storage facility (ISF) and a similar system without an ISF.

  6. A method for economic optimization of energy performance and indoor environment in the design of sustainable buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Sanne; Vanhoutteghem, Lies

    2012-01-01

    that takes into account the indoor thermal environment. By use of the criterion of cost of conserved energy implemented in a Microsoft Excel sheet, a cost optimal design according to a targeted energy frame can be found. The resulting indoor thermal environment is then evaluated based on parametric analysis...... that an economic design solution with good indoor environment can be identified. The example also shows that in order to ensure that buildings have low energy consumption, at minimum extra cost, more appropriate products and solutions will have to become available on the market at a competitive price....

  7. What Shapes the Phylogenetic Structure of Anuran Communities in a Seasonal Environment? The Influence of Determinism at Regional Scale to Stochasticity or Antagonistic Forces at Local Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Clarissa de Araújo; Roque, Fabio de Oliveira; Santos, Bráulio A; Ferreira, Vanda Lúcia; Strüssmann, Christine; Tomas, Walfrido Moraes

    2015-01-01

    Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic and stochastic processes. We investigated phylogenetic patterns at regional and local scales to understand the influences of seasonal processes in shaping the structure of anuran communities in the southern Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We assessed the phylogenetic structure at different scales, using the Net Relatedness Index (NRI), the Nearest Taxon Index (NTI), and phylobetadiversity indexes, as well as a permutation test, to evaluate the effect of seasonality. The anuran community was represented by a non-random set of species with a high degree of phylogenetic relatedness at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the phylogenetic structure of the community was weakly related with the seasonality of the system, indicating that oriented stochastic processes (e.g. colonization, extinction and ecological drift) and/or antagonist forces drive the structure of such communities in the southern Pantanal.

  8. Stochastic Growth Models with No Discounting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 88-98 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GA402/05/0115 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic dynamics * stochastic version of the Ramsey growth model * Markov decision processes Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  9. Assessing associations between socio-economic environment and self-reported health in Amsterdam using bespoke environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuizen, Eleonore M.; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E.

    2013-01-01

    The study of the relationship between residential environment and health at micro area level has a long time been hampered by a lack of micro-scale data. Nowadays data is registered at a much more detailed scale. In combination with Geographic Information System (GIS)-techniques this creates

  10. Economic assessment of solar electricity production from organic-based photovoltaic modules in a domestic environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azzopardi, Brian; Emmott, Christopher J. M.; Urbina, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an economic assessment of OPV based on an existing pre-industrial manufacturing process and the associated detailed material inventory.......This paper presents an economic assessment of OPV based on an existing pre-industrial manufacturing process and the associated detailed material inventory....

  11. Environmental perceptions as mediators of the relationship between the objective built environment and walking among socio-economically disadvantaged women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dyck, Delfien; Veitch, Jenny; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Thornton, Lukar; Ball, Kylie

    2013-09-19

    Women living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods are at increased risk for physical inactivity and associated health outcomes and are difficult to reach through personally tailored interventions. Targeting the built environment may be an effective strategy in this population subgroup. The aim of this study was to examine the mediating role of environmental perceptions in the relationship between the objective environment and walking for transportation/recreation among women from socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Baseline data of the Resilience for Eating and Activity Despite Inequality (READI) study were used. In total, 4139 women (18-46 years) completed a postal survey assessing physical environmental perceptions (aesthetics, neighbourhood physical activity environment, personal safety, neighbourhood social cohesion), physical activity, and socio-demographics. Objectively-assessed data on street connectivity and density of destinations were collected using a Geographic Information System database and based on the objective z-scores, an objective destinations/connectivity score was calculated. This index was positively scored, with higher scores representing a more favourable environment. Two-level mixed models regression analyses were conducted and the MacKinnon product-of-coefficients test was used to examine the mediating effects. The destinations/connectivity score was positively associated with transport-related walking. The perceived physical activity environment mediated 6.1% of this positive association. The destinations/connectivity score was negatively associated with leisure-time walking. Negative perceptions of aesthetics, personal safety and social cohesion of the neighbourhood jointly mediated 24.1% of this negative association. For women living in socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods, environmental perceptions were important mediators of the relationship between the objective built environment and walking. To

  12. The contribution of childhood environment to the explanation of socio-economic inequalities in health in adult life: A retrospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Mheen, H.; Stronks, K.; van den Bos, J.; Mackenbach, J. P.

    1997-01-01

    In this study the contribution of childhood environment to the explanation of socio-economic inequalities in health in adulthood is examined. Childhood environment was measured using indicators of social, socio-economic and material aspects. Retrospective data obtained from an oral interview, part

  13. The constitutional tutelage between economic development and balanced ecological environment; A tutela constitucional entre desenvolvimento economico e meio ambiente ecologicamente equilibrado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tavares, Andre Ramos [Pontificia Univ. Catolica de Sao Paulo (PUC-SP), SP (Brazil). Programa de Pos-graduacao em Direito

    2004-10-15

    This article defends the inclusion of the environment defence as a constitution and economical principle which assures the maintenance of the present environmental media. This principle when inserted in the context of the existent economical order is an instrument for the intervention of the State in the economy, viewing the environment tutelage.

  14. Tourism Environment Cost Economics Interpretation%旅游环境成本的经济学诠释

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄强叶

    2011-01-01

    Based on the perspective of environment cost of tourism development of unsustainable phenomenon from externality is analyzed, and the basic attribute of tourism environment cost, combining with the special properties of the tourism industry, Combining tourism environment cost the historical evolution and economics cost attributes, analyzes tourism environment cost economic meaning. Put forward the tourism carrying capacity utilization point of view, Think tourism environment cost biochemistry inside is the key to solve an externality.%基于环境成本视角对旅游发展中的不可持续现象进行分析,从外部性这一旅游环境成本的基本属性出发,结合旅游环境成本的历史演变和经济学的成本属性,剖析旅游环境成本的经济涵义,提出旅游容量资源化的观点,认为旅游环境成本内生化是解决外部性问题的关键.

  15. Economic Security Environment and Implementation of Planning, Programming, Budgeting, Execution (PPBE) System in Georgia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chiabrishvili, Maia

    2004-01-01

    ...; the problems in government institutions resulting from the old Soviet mentality and the lack of leadership skills in a democratic society which led to Georgia's political crisis and economic decline...

  16. THE ORETICAL AND PRACTICAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE RADIO ENGINEERS’ ECONOMIC COMPETENCE OBTAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    В. Приступа

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the problem of radio engineers’ economic competence obtaining. The theoretical and practical issues of pedagogical model are presented on the basis of traditional, business-oriented and context approaches

  17. Economic preparation of the environment: A selective empirical analysis of chinese investment in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    strategy became an official PRC policy under President Hu Jintao. The policy itself was first introduced late 2003 in a speech by PRC premier Wen ...confirmed through archived stories as reported by Philippine news outlets. We then conducted deep dive research into each of the identified commercial...Economic Influence.” 96 Wen Zha, “Personalized Foreign Policy Decision-making and Economic Dependence: A Comparative Study of Thailand and the

  18. AN IMPACT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES OF THE REGION ON THE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa B. Kalmykova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An approach to assessment of a stability of socio-economic development of the region with use of elasticity coefficients is given in the article. On the basis of correlation and regression analysis the author constructs the dependence equations between the indicators of the region’s development and environment’s conditions. That makes it possible to evaluate the influence of social and economic processes on the ecosystem of the region.

  19. Management of Ecological-Economic Processes of Pollution Accumulation and Assimilation in the Coastal Zone Marine Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.E. Timchenko

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A model for managing the balance of pollution (getting into the sea with the coastal runoff assimilation and accumulation, based on the negative feedback between the coastal economic system efficiency and penalties for the sea coastal zone pollution is proposed. The model is constructed by the Adaptive Balance of Causes method and is intended for finding a rational balance of profit from the use of assimilative resources of the marine environment and the costs of maintaining its quality. The increase of pollutions in the coastal zone is taken as proportional to the volume of product realization. The decrease of pollution concentration is related to the environment protection activities paid for by the production. The model contains the agents for managing the volume of the economic system generalized production release. The agents control pollution accumulation rate at different ones of the bio-chemical processes resulting in the marine environment natural purification. Scenario analysis of ecological-economic processes in the “Land–Sea” system is carried out, and the dependencies of economic subsystem production profitability on penalty sanctions limiting the pollutant flux getting into the sea are constructed. Sea temperature and water mass dynamics effect on these processes is considered. The scenarios of their intra-annual variability are constructed. It is shown that the sea temperature and near-water wind consideration in the model have a significant effect on marine environment pollution level and production profitability. The conclusion is that the proposed adaptive simulation model “Sea–Land” can be used for forecasting the scenarios of coastal subsystem production processes (the volume of generalized product manufacturing, production cost, profitability in parallel with the forecast of pollution concentration in the sea scenarios.

  20. Multiple Regression and Mediator Variables can be used to Avoid Double Counting when Economic Values are Derived using Stochastic Herd Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Søren; Ettema, Jehan Frans; Hjortø, Line

    Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent v...... in multiparous cows. The merit of using this approach was demonstrated since the economic value of metritis was estimated to be 81% higher when no mediator variables were included in the multiple regression analysis......Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent...... variable, while using the traits representing the direct effects of metritis on yield, fertility and occurrence of other diseases as mediator variables. The economic value of metritis was estimated to be €78 per 100 cow-years for each 1% increase of metritis in the period of 1-100 days in milk...

  1. The impact of green logistic based on financial economic, social and environment activities on sustainable monetary expansion indicators of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faris Alshubiri

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine green logistic activities by three axes (financial economic, social and environment activities and how these activities affect on sustainable monetary expansion indicators as an evidence of Sultanate of Oman. Design/methodology/approach: This study began by definition elements of logistic green and how evolution of this concept in recent years. This concept analyzed after survey of previous studies on green logistic. The independent variables of green logistic  are includes of three components of financial economic , social and environment and applies these components to clarify the impact on expansionary monetary policy indicators ( broad , narrow and reserve money as a important signals  in determining a country's economy. This study used data published in statistical annual report of central bank of Oman as representative of country economic of sultanate of Oman from the period 2008 to 2015.  Findings: The results found two variables of government support to electricity sector (GSE and subsidy on soft loans to private sector and housing (SSLPH based on environment activities are statistical significant 1% and 5%. Only one variable of transport and communication (TC in financial economic activates is statistical significant at 1% and 5% , but all variables community, social and personal (CSP , cultural and religious affairs (CRA and social security and welfare (SSW in social activities are statistical significant at 1% 5% and 10% , finally , also the multiple regression test run of all variables of green logistics activities and each monetary expansion indicators and found there are a statistical significant at 1% and 5%, .The study recommends that should be attention with financial economic activities as a quantitative standard contributes to build the green logistic by diagnosed the priorities and existing economic and financial system that contributes of  sustainable development system in

  2. Stochastic tools in turbulence

    CERN Document Server

    Lumey, John L

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic Tools in Turbulence discusses the available mathematical tools to describe stochastic vector fields to solve problems related to these fields. The book deals with the needs of turbulence in relation to stochastic vector fields, particularly, on three-dimensional aspects, linear problems, and stochastic model building. The text describes probability distributions and densities, including Lebesgue integration, conditional probabilities, conditional expectations, statistical independence, lack of correlation. The book also explains the significance of the moments, the properties of the

  3. Society's nature: Ecological economics and the combined challenge of environment and distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2010-01-01

    The paper introduces the emerging field of ecological economics and evaluates its potential for addressing some of the concerns within development studies. It takes as its point of departure the study of the relationship between nature and society that emerged in the wake of the environmental dis......, in particular the combination of the environmental and distributional issues and the challenges therein. Finally, the paper reflects on the persuasive potential of ecological economics in relation to politics.......The paper introduces the emerging field of ecological economics and evaluates its potential for addressing some of the concerns within development studies. It takes as its point of departure the study of the relationship between nature and society that emerged in the wake of the environmental...

  4. Spatial stochastic regression modelling of urban land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arshad, S H M; Jaafar, J; Abiden, M Z Z; Latif, Z A; Rasam, A R A

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is very closely linked to industrialization, commercialization or overall economic growth and development. This results in innumerable benefits of the quantity and quality of the urban environment and lifestyle but on the other hand contributes to unbounded development, urban sprawl, overcrowding and decreasing standard of living. Regulation and observation of urban development activities is crucial. The understanding of urban systems that promotes urban growth are also essential for the purpose of policy making, formulating development strategies as well as development plan preparation. This study aims to compare two different stochastic regression modeling techniques for spatial structure models of urban growth in the same specific study area. Both techniques will utilize the same datasets and their results will be analyzed. The work starts by producing an urban growth model by using stochastic regression modeling techniques namely the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The two techniques are compared to and it is found that, GWR seems to be a more significant stochastic regression model compared to OLS, it gives a smaller AICc (Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion) value and its output is more spatially explainable

  5. A Stochastic Water Balance Framework for Lowland Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Sally; MacVean, Lissa; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2017-11-01

    The water balance dynamics in lowland watersheds are influenced not only by local hydroclimatic controls on energy and water availability, but also by imports of water from the upstream watershed. These imports result in a stochastic extent of inundation in lowland watersheds that is determined by the local flood regime, watershed topography, and the rate of loss processes such as drainage and evaporation. Thus, lowland watershed water balances depend on two stochastic processes—rainfall and local inundation dynamics. Lowlands are high productivity environments that are disproportionately associated with urbanization, high productivity agriculture, biodiversity, and flood risk. Consequently, they are being rapidly altered by human development—generally with clear economic and social motivation—but also with significant trade-offs in ecosystem services provision, directly related to changes in the components and variability of the lowland water balance. We present a stochastic framework to assess the lowland water balance and its sensitivity to two common human interventions—replacement of native vegetation with alternative land uses, and construction of local flood protection levees. By providing analytical solutions for the mean and PDF of the water balance components, the proposed framework provides a mechanism to connect human interventions to hydrologic outcomes, and, in conjunction with ecosystem service production estimates, to evaluate trade-offs associated with lowland watershed development.

  6. Learning stochastic reward distributions in a speeded pointing task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seydell, Anna; McCann, Brian C; Trommershäuser, Julia; Knill, David C

    2008-04-23

    Recent studies have shown that humans effectively take into account task variance caused by intrinsic motor noise when planning fast hand movements. However, previous evidence suggests that humans have greater difficulty accounting for arbitrary forms of stochasticity in their environment, both in economic decision making and sensorimotor tasks. We hypothesized that humans can learn to optimize movement strategies when environmental randomness can be experienced and thus implicitly learned over several trials, especially if it mimics the kinds of randomness for which subjects might have generative models. We tested the hypothesis using a task in which subjects had to rapidly point at a target region partly covered by three stochastic penalty regions introduced as "defenders." At movement completion, each defender jumped to a new position drawn randomly from fixed probability distributions. Subjects earned points when they hit the target, unblocked by a defender, and lost points otherwise. Results indicate that after approximately 600 trials, subjects approached optimal behavior. We further tested whether subjects simply learned a set of stimulus-contingent motor plans or the statistics of defenders' movements by training subjects with one penalty distribution and then testing them on a new penalty distribution. Subjects immediately changed their strategy to achieve the same average reward as subjects who had trained with the second penalty distribution. These results indicate that subjects learned the parameters of the defenders' jump distributions and used this knowledge to optimally plan their hand movements under conditions involving stochastic rewards and penalties.

  7. Annual Financial Statements as Way of Communicate the Accounting Information in the Economic Environment

    OpenAIRE

    Ovidia DOINEA

    2008-01-01

    The accounting synthesis documents represents an informing social system created for the satisfaction of the informing user’s needs, needs determined by political and social purposes. The financial informing policies described by the annual synthesis accounting documents architecture are different in accordance with their needs. The official documents for presenting the financial – economical situation are the annual financial statements.

  8. Economic Growth and the Environment - or the Extinction of the GDP-dinosaur

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    1997-01-01

    Abstract Market economies are fundamentally characterized by economic growth. Growth rates may be higher or lower, but the GDP seldom stagnates or diminishes - and when it does, this is considered a symptom of crisis. During the past few decades environmental problems have caused increasing conce...

  9. Hard or Easy? Difficulty of Entrepreneurial Startups in 107 Climato-Economic Environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Vliert, Evert; Janssen, Onne; Van der Vegt, Gerben S.

    Driven by existential needs for thermal comfort, nutrition, and health, human populations create cultural adaptations to environmental conditions. Entrepreneurs starting new businesses in more threatening or more challenging environments may be a case in point. In a secondary analysis of

  10. Noncausal stochastic calculus

    CERN Document Server

    Ogawa, Shigeyoshi

    2017-01-01

    This book presents an elementary introduction to the theory of noncausal stochastic calculus that arises as a natural alternative to the standard theory of stochastic calculus founded in 1944 by Professor Kiyoshi Itô. As is generally known, Itô Calculus is essentially based on the "hypothesis of causality", asking random functions to be adapted to a natural filtration generated by Brownian motion or more generally by square integrable martingale. The intention in this book is to establish a stochastic calculus that is free from this "hypothesis of causality". To be more precise, a noncausal theory of stochastic calculus is developed in this book, based on the noncausal integral introduced by the author in 1979. After studying basic properties of the noncausal stochastic integral, various concrete problems of noncausal nature are considered, mostly concerning stochastic functional equations such as SDE, SIE, SPDE, and others, to show not only the necessity of such theory of noncausal stochastic calculus but ...

  11. A stochastic model to determine the economic value of changing diagnostic test characteristics for identification of cattle for treatment of bovine respiratory disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theurer, M E; White, B J; Larson, R L; Schroeder, T C

    2015-03-01

    Bovine respiratory disease is an economically important syndrome in the beef industry, and diagnostic accuracy is important for optimal disease management. The objective of this study was to determine whether improving diagnostic sensitivity or specificity was of greater economic value at varied levels of respiratory disease prevalence by using Monte Carlo simulation. Existing literature was used to populate model distributions of published sensitivity, specificity, and performance (ADG, carcass weight, yield grade, quality grade, and mortality risk) differences among calves based on clinical respiratory disease status. Data from multiple cattle feeding operations were used to generate true ranges of respiratory disease prevalence and associated mortality. Input variables were combined into a single model that calculated estimated net returns for animals by diagnostic category (true positive, false positive, false negative, and true negative) based on the prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity for each iteration. Net returns for each diagnostic category were multiplied by the proportion of animals in each diagnostic category to determine group profitability. Apparent prevalence was categorized into low (increasing specificity created more rapid, positive change in net returns than increasing sensitivity. Improvement of diagnostic specificity, perhaps through a confirmatory test interpreted in series or pen-level diagnostics, can increase diagnostic value more than improving sensitivity. Mortality risk was the primary driver for net returns. The results from this study are important for determining future research priorities to analyze diagnostic techniques for bovine respiratory disease and provide a novel way for modeling diagnostic tests.

  12. Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McIntyre, A.D.; Turnbull, R.G.H.

    1992-01-01

    The development of the hydrocarbon resources of the North Sea has resulted in both offshore and onshore environmental repercussions, involving the existing physical attributes of the sea and seabed, the coastline and adjoining land. The social and economic repercussions of the industry were equally widespread. The dramatic and speedy impact of the exploration and exploitation of the northern North Sea resources in the early 1970s, on the physical resources of Scotland was quickly realised together with the concern that any environmental and social damage to the physical and social fabric should be kept to a minimum. To this end, a wide range of research and other activities by central and local government, and other interested agencies was undertaken to extend existing knowledge on the marine and terrestrial environments that might be affected by the oil and gas industry. The outcome of these activities is summarized in this paper. The topics covered include a survey of the marine ecosystems of the North Sea, the fishing industry, the impact of oil pollution on seabirds and fish stocks, the ecology of the Scottish coastline and the impact of the petroleum industry on a selection of particular sites. (author)

  13. THE ANALYSIS OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hristea Anca Maria

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Real estate investments are one of the most attractive business opportunities in the context of the contemporary economy, generally marked by economic recession and especially by monetary and financial instability. Last years international reporting concluded that deepening the global economic crisis determined an increase of the real estate request, while despite all expectations one did not assist a crash of the prices. Economic reality showed that real estate assets value (buildings, land kept proportions with economic reality over time. A comparison between stock exchange market and the real estate market shows that while an movables investor (investments in stocks, bonds or life insurance might lose completely his initial investment, the investments in real estate assets, such as buildings, would keep their quality as goods and would also keep a value to better resist shocks and thus allowing an increase of the capital. When appreciating the value of an investment the first things to analyze are the return, liquidity and risk criteria, which are essential in real estate investments too. Stimulating real estate market must be not only a wish but also a reality of global economy, since it can correct many of the aggregated indicators of a country. Containing scientifically detached from economic practice, this article is addressed to readers with interests in real estate investment. The language is usually referred particularly to the qualitative side of the real estate market approach. The feasibility of the real estate investments is being conditioned by their capacity to generate important profits, on the background of the reduction of the duration of recovery of their value. The economic instability from the last couple of years has generated fears and failures but, paraphrasing Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, courage is a mixture of genius, magic and power that helps us succeed in everything we set our mind to. The investments on the real

  14. Spatial pattern of diarrhea based on regional economic and environment by spatial autoregressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekti, Rokhana Dwi; Nurhadiyanti, Gita; Irwansyah, Edy

    2014-10-01

    The diarrhea case pattern information, especially for toddler, is very important. It is used to show the distribution of diarrhea in every region, relationship among that locations, and regional economic characteristic or environmental behavior. So, this research uses spatial pattern to perform them. This method includes: Moran's I, Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAR), and Local Indicator of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA). It uses sample from 23 sub districts of Bekasi Regency, West Java, Indonesia. Diarrhea case, regional economic, and environmental behavior of households have a spatial relationship among sub district. SAR shows that the percentage of Regional Gross Domestic Product is significantly effect on diarrhea at α = 10%. Therefore illiteracy and health center facilities are significant at α = 5%. With LISA test, sub districts in southern Bekasi have high dependencies with Cikarang Selatan, Serang Baru, and Setu. This research also builds development application that is based on java and R to support data analysis.

  15. APPROACHES TO EUROPEAN UNION MILITARY COLLABORATION IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC AUSTERITY ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria CONSTANTINESCU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of the economic crisis on European countries has led to serious cuts of the defense budgets and a perceived reduction in the EU’s ability to provide capabilities required by other allies, especially the US. Cooperation, in the form of pooling and sharing may not be an easy and “ready to use” solution to Europe’s defense issues generated by the budget austerity and economic downturn, but it may provide ways to lessen the defense cuts impact on the military capabilities. Nonetheless, the success of the initiative is strongly related to the degree of political and military commitment of the EU countries to put into practice the concept.

  16. THE IMPACT OF THE ENGLISH ECONOMIC TERMS IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COANCA MARIANA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In terms of quantity, the English (American influence in the economic language is striking, remarkable. The adjustment of these terms is brief, relative, which is not a factor favoring the assimilation of loans, but is permissible, in principle, for Anglicisms. In what concerns the need for these loans, it can be deemed that the demarcation between necessary loans and luxury loans is not yet solid. Low frequency or isolated Anglicisms may be classified into the second category (some may even affect proper specialized communication. Even if enough Anglicisms recorded in the economic press will not remain in Romanian, "the era of the Internet, of globalization" , we may consider a greater influence of English in the economy (perhaps similar to computer science.

  17. New travelling wave solutions for nonlinear stochastic evolution

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The nonlinear stochastic evolution equations have a wide range of applications in physics, chemistry, biology, economics and finance from various points of view. In this paper, the (′/)-expansion method is implemented for obtaining new travelling wave solutions of the nonlinear (2 + 1)-dimensional stochastic ...

  18. Energy, the Environment and Behaviour Change: A survey of insights from behavioural economics

    OpenAIRE

    Baddeley, M.

    2011-01-01

    Evidence of climate change is largely undisputed but moderating the impacts not only of climate change but also of resource depletion is a complex, multi-faceted problem. Technical solutions will have a large role to play but engineering behaviour change within households and firms is essential to harnessing the potential for energy efficient consumption, production and investment. To inform debates about behavior change, this paper explores some insights from behavioural economics including ...

  19. EFFECTS OF HIGH ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF INDUSTRIAL BRANCHES ON HUMAN LIFE QUALITY AND ENVIRONMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Özarslan, Doguş Deniz; Cumbul Altay, Melek; Arabaci, Aliye; Altay, H. Fatih; Sivri, Nüket

    2012-01-01

    Importance of industrialization which has a role in determination of the civilization levels of societies is increasing everyday due to meet rapidly increasing demands. However this process has led up to environmental problems with time and thus effects on quality of human life also brought along. In this study, three sectors were selected among different branches of industry according to their economical importance in Turkey. These sectors are paper, metal and construction chemicals industry...

  20. Relational environment and intellectual roots of 'ecological economics': An orthodox or heterodox field of research?

    OpenAIRE

    Teixeira, Aurora A. C.; Castro e Silva, Manuela

    2015-01-01

    The way the fields are delineated has been the Achilles' heel of studies analyzing the status and evolution of given scientific areas. Based on van den Besselaar and Leydesdorff's (Mapping change in scientific specialities; a scientometric reconstruction of the development of artificial intelligence, 1996) contribution, the authors propose a systematic and objective method for delineating the field of ecological economics assuming that aggregated journal-journal citation relations is an appro...

  1. ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF GENDER EQUALITY

    OpenAIRE

    Khatuna BERISHVILI

    2016-01-01

    Term “gender” means socially constructed roles of man and woman, which are ascribed to them according to gender marker. Thus, gender roles depend on concrete socio-economic, political and culturological context and experience influence of various factors according to race, ethnic origin, class, sexual orientation and age. Gender roles widely differ within each culture and cultures. Unlike the individual’s biological gender, the gender role can be changed. This concept implies the views, cond...

  2. ADAPTATION TO THE ENVIRONMENT OF RUSTIC ANIMAL BREEDS IN BANAT WITH CO-ECONOMIC IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen-Luminita Matiuti

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available During the 19th and the 20th centuries, they developed in the Banat of Temeswar animalbreeds with economic performances comparable to those of other breeds in Europe.Traditionally, they also breed animal breeds and populations developed in Transylvania, amulti-cultural, multi-ethnic historical region that resembles the Banat of Temeswar verymuch from this point of view. Some of the rustic breeds from the Banat of Temeswar orfrom Transylvania are economically behind other specialised breeds. These rustic breedsare, in exchange, well adapted to the areas and they have genes that endow them withparticular disease-resistance. Reform of farm support policies in OECD countries is awelcome step which has led to a decline in the aggregate trade distortion coefficient from0.96 in 1986 to 0.74 in 2007. Climate change and increased biofuel production representmajor risks for long-term food security. Although countries in the Southern hemisphere arenot the main originators of climate change, they may suffer the greatest share of damage inthe form of declining yields and greater frequency of extreme weather events. Nowadays asustainable economy must become rural, based on Agrifood Biodiversity. Bioeconomy andEco-Economy scientifically applied to the rural economy, in the context of a sustainablerural development, the possibility exists to issue the following tentative terms forconsideration in the future: a. Bioeconomic sustainable development of the rural areas;b.Eco-Economic sustainable development of the agrifood production; c. Eco-Bioeconomicsustainable development of the agrifood green power.

  3. Operating a railway system within a challenging environment: Economic history and experiences of Zimbabwe’s national railways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Mbohwa

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a historical background to the development of the railways in Zimbabwe and then discusses their current state. Besides being a landlocked country in Southern Africa, Zimbabwe has since 2000 been saddled with socio-economic and political challenges which have seen a decline in all economic indices, hence posing some challenges to its railways. This article discusses the challenges faced by the railways as a result of high inflation, unstable currency exchange rate, brain drain, poor management, government interference in management, customs border delays, and energy shortage. The problems have been addressed in unique ways and unusual solutions are proposed. These include customer financing for maintenance and spares and the resuscitation of steam locomotives. The presented solutions, lessons and issues from this experience contribute to discussions and study of railway logistics in challenging environments. Finally, current and future research issues, which have a global appeal, are presented.

  4. A survey of energy policy priorities in the United States: Energy supply security, economics, and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manley, Dawn K.; Hines, Valerie A.; Jordan, Matthew W.; Stoltz, Ronald E.

    2013-01-01

    Security, environment, and economic concerns are commonly identified as three major objectives of energy policy. State and federal governments have set aggressive targets for carbon emissions reductions and for alternative fuel use and increased vehicle efficiency to reduce petroleum consumption. Moreover, jobs creation and GDP growth are often cited as key drivers for energy policies. Previous studies on energy policy decision-making have examined the process for developing and evaluating options using multi-criteria decision analysis tools. In addition, energy opinion polls have either elicited preferences between two goals or whether the public supports a specific policy action. In this article, we report results from a survey of 884 members of professional membership organizations on how the U.S. should prioritize energy policy across the goals of energy supply security, environment and climate, and economics and job creation. The majority favor policymaking that is balanced across all three. Security and economic concerns increase with age for male respondents, whereas environment is the highest priority for females regardless of age. Unlike previous surveys that target the general public and focus on a particular objective or technology, these results provide an example of eliciting a portfolio allocation across multiple energy policy goals from targeted constituents. - Highlights: • We surveyed 884 members of professional membership organizations on how the U.S. should prioritize energy policy. • The paper addresses direct elicitation of energy policy goal portfolio allocation for a large set of energy stakeholders. • The majority of respondents favor policymaking balanced across multiple goals. • We observed differences in priorities based on age and gender. • Respondents expressed a tension in allocating across goals that are interrelated

  5. The New Environment of EU Enlargement: The Impact of Economic Crisis on the Western Balkans and their EU Accession Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ritsa Panagiotou

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper will explore the impact of the economic crisis on the Western Balkan countries, and how the new, unfavorable international environment is affecting their EU accession prospects. The analysis will be presented in three sections: the first part will examine the effect of the “first wave” of the global economic crisis on the economies of the region, specifically the impact on the region’s macroeconomic indicators, foreign direct investment flows, financial sectors, etc. Part two will analyse the repercussions of the “second wave” of the crisis, namely the Greek sovereign debt crisis, which rapidly spilled over into the entire Eurozone. Part three will build on the issues examined in parts one and two and will discuss the repercussions of both waves of the crisis on the region’s enlargement process and prospects. The paper will also propose that although the EU’s role in Southeast Europe remains crucial (not least as a provider of economic assistance its hitherto undisputable symbolic role as an “anchor” of stability and as a goal to be aspired to may be losing its appeal for some of these countries. This paper will explore the impact of the economic crisis on the Western Balkan countries, and how the new, unfavorable international environment is affecting their EU accession prospects. The analysis will be presented in three sections: the first part will examine the effect of the “first wave” of the global economic crisis on the economies of the region, specifically the impact on the region’s macroeconomic indicators, foreign direct investment flows, financial sectors, etc. Part two will analyse the repercussions of the “second wave” of the crisis, namely the Greek sovereign debt crisis, which rapidly spilled over into the entire Eurozone. Part three will build on the issues examined in parts one and two and will discuss the repercussions of both waves of the crisis on the region’s enlargement process and

  6. Economic analysis of pesticide use and environmental spillovers under a dynamic production environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skevas, T.

    2012-01-01

    Pesticides are used in agriculture to protect crops from pests and diseases, with indiscriminate pesticide use having several adverse effects on the environment. In an era of an increasing public awareness on pesticides’ environmental spillovers, the EU is trying to update its pesticide policy by

  7. Information on the Economic--Social Environment as Didactic Material for Bachelor's or Master's Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamosiunas, Teodoras

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the research is to investigate how particular information from the environment serves as didactic material for students of Siauliai University Faculty of Social Sciences in learning to carry out scientific analysis and theoretical generalization of data in their theses. Methodology: The main sources--Internet databases,…

  8. Tendances Carbone no. 66 'Understanding the link between macro-economic environment and the EU carbon price'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2012-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Tendances Carbone' bulletin specifically studies the developments of the European market for CO 2 allowances. This issue addresses the following points: The reaction of the carbon price to changes in macro-economic fundamentals can be understood from different levels. My recent academic research has identified two strong linkages. First, there is a link between the EU carbon price and financial markets, such as equity and bond markets. These analyses emphasize how the volatility of the carbon price is affected when financial markets enter 'bull' or 'bear' periods. By estimating various volatility models, carbon futures prices may be weakly forecasted on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e equity dividend yields (returns on stocks) and the 'junk bond' premium (spread between BAA- and AAA-rated bonds). Moreover, by assessing the transmission of international shocks to the carbon market, carbon prices tend to respond negatively to an exogenous recessionary shock on global economic indicators. In consequence, for investments managers, carbon assets such as EUA appear to be well-suited for portfolio diversification since they do not match exactly the business cycle. The second relationship addresses the physical association between industrial production and carbon price changes though the emissions level. The first objective of an academic researcher is to identify the most explanatory variable: in our case, the monthly Eurostat aggregated industrial production index to proxy for changes in macro-economic fundamentals. In the light of the recent periods of economic expansion (2005-2007) and recession (since 2008), several studies can bring fruitful results: - Our results tend to confirm that the carbon market adjusts to the macro-economic environment with a delay due to the specific institutional constraints of the EU ETS. - The relationship between carbon prices and EU industrial production has

  9. Characterizing Economic and Social Properties of Trust and Reputation Systems in P2P Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu-Feng Wang; Yoshiaki Hori; Kouichi Sakurai

    2008-01-01

    Considering the fact that P2P (Peer-to-Peer) systems are self-organized and autonomous, social-control mechanism (like trust and reputation) is essential to evaluate the trustworthiness of participating peers and to combat the selfish, dishonest and malicious peer behaviors. So, naturally, we advocate that P2P systems that gradually act as an important information infrastructure should be multi-disciplinary research topic, and reflect certain features of our society. So, from economic and social perspective, this paper designs the incentive-compatible reputation feedback scheme based on well-known economic model, and characterizes the social features of trust network in terms of efficiency and cost. Specifically, our framework has two distinctive purposes: first, from high-level perspective, we argue trust system is a special kind of social network, and an accurate characterization of the structural properties of the network can be of fundamental importance to understand the dynamics of the system. Thus, inspired by the concept of weighted small-world, this paper proposes new measurements to characterize the social properties of trust system, that is, highg lobal and local efficiency, and low cost; then, from relative low-level perspective, we argue that reputation feedback is a special kind of information, and it is not free. So, based on economic model, VCG (Vickrey-Clarke-Grove)-like reputation remuneration mechanism is proposed to stimulate rational peers not only to provide reputation feedback, but truthfully offer feedback. Furthermore, considering that trust and reputation is subjective, we classify the trust into functional trust and referral trust, and extend the referral trust to include two factors: similarity and truthfulness, which can efficiently reduce the trust inference error. The preliminary simulation results show the benefits of our proposal and the emergence of certain social properties in trust network.

  10. Economic Feasibility of Underwater Adduction of Rivers for Metropolises in Semiarid Coastal Environments: Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Albiero

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The supply of raw water to the inhabitants of metropolises is not a trivial problem, and involves many challenges, both in terms of the quantity and quality of this water. When these metropolises are located in semiarid regions, this challenge takes on enormous proportions, and in many situations, there are no sustainable solutions, especially in times of global climate change. One hypothesis to try to mitigate this problem in coastal cities is the underwater adduction of rivers. The objective of this paper was to make the abstraction of drinking water in the mouths of great rivers near semi-arid regions. This water would be led by a pipeline below the water level and would follow the route of the seacoast, where the energy to move the water would be supplied by an axial hydraulic pump embedded in the pipeline by water-cooled electric motors driven by the energy generated from offshore wind turbines. Estimates have been made for the four metropolises in semi-arid regions: Fortaleza-Brazil, Dalian-China, Tel Aviv-Israel, and Gaza-Palestine, where it was possible to calculate economic viability through the Present Worth Value, the internal rate of return, and payback. The results indicated that Fortaleza had economic viability under restrictions. Dalian proved the ideal result. Tel Aviv and Gaza both had great economic viability, but only if Egypt agreed to supply water from the Nile. This paper proved that the management of the water supply for human consumption through the underwater adduction of rivers could be achieved with real clearance for any deficits in the volume of water that due to global climate change are becoming more frequent.

  11. Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.

    2009-12-01

    Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is

  12. Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinling Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

  13. Long Term Environment and Economic Impacts of Coal Liquefaction in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fletcher, Jerald [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2014-03-31

    The project currently is composed of six specific tasks – three research tasks, two outreach and training tasks, and one project management and communications task. Task 1 addresses project management and communication. Research activities focused on Task 2 (Describe and Quantify the Economic Impacts and Implications of the Development and Deployment of Coal-to-Liquid Facilities in China), Task 3 (Development of Alternative Coal Gasification Database), and Task 4 (Geologic Carbon Management Options). There also were significant activities related to Task 5 (US-China Communication, Collaboration, and Training on Clean Coal Technologies) as well as planning activity performed in support of Task 6 (Training Programs).

  14. The market for, and economics of, cogeneration and independent power projects in a competitive environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLeese, R.

    1999-01-01

    A corporate review of Access Capital Corporation was presented. The company is a financial advisor for the development and ownership of electric power projects. The company has expertise in various technologies including gas-fired cogeneration, hydro energy, biomass, renewables and district heating. This presentation included a series of overhead viewgraphs which focused on: (1) the restructuring of Ontario's electricity market, (2) future private power requirements, (3) economics of IPP technologies, (4) pros and cons of on-site power generation, (5) rates paid for private power supply, and (6) financial restructuring of current NUG power purchase contracts. 2 tabs., 6 figs

  15. The Social And Economic Impacts Of The Mile 1 Rumuwoji Market In Port Harcourt On Its Immediate Environs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibama Brown

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In recent years the development of standard markets and its impact on the environs has become a burning issue in the minds of many governments and people alike. Consequently this paper is poised to take a comprehensive look at the location of the Rumuwoji Mile 1 Market in Port Harcourt with respect to the social and economic impacts on the environs. The State Government has shown considerable interest in the location of the market and other ancillary activities and facilities around it. This led to considerable emphasis being placed on the relationship between the various land-uses viz residential commercial recreational transportation etc in most urban centers in like Port Harcourt. This has become imperative as there seem to be palpable hazards and effects being exacted on the environs daily by different socio-economic activities within and around the market. In the same vein this paper has taken special interest in identifying different hazards and the real and potential effects the Mile 1 Rumuwoji market has on its immediate environs as a segment of an urban city of Port Harcourt. The methodology employed in conducting the research was the Hazard and Effect Management Process HEMP to ascertain the hazards and effects posed by the market. From the research it was discovered that the market serves as a central place because it attracts people from different origin to the area and that properties in the area are of mixed uses. The market provides employment in the area. Noise and unhealthy sanitary practices are allowed to thrive there and inadequate parking spaces. To mitigate these challenges some of the recommendations includes the adoption of the social impact mitigation and enhancement framework provision of basic facilities and services the creation of more parking spaces. Sanitary laws and effective refuse collection and disposal should be put in place. If these are done the living conditions of the people living in the area

  16. Operating the Advanced Test Reactor in today's economic and regulatory environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furstenau, R.V.; Patrick, M.E.; Mecham, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), located at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, is the US Department of Energy's largest and most versatile test reactor. Base programs at ATR are planned well into the 21st century. The ATR and support facilities along with an overview of current programs will be reviewed, but the main focus of the presentation will be on the impact that today's economic and regulatory concerns have had on the operation of this test reactor. Today's economic and regulatory concerns have demanded more work be completed at lower cost while increasing the margin of safety. By the beginning of the 1990 s, federal budgets for research generally and particularly for nuclear research had decreased dramatically. Many national needs continued to require testing in the ATR; but demanded lower cost, increased efficiency, improved performance, and an increased margin of safety. At the same time budgets were decreasing, there was an increase in regulatory compliance activity. The new standards imposed higher margins of safety. The new era of greater openness and higher safety standards complemented research demands to work safer, smarter and more efficiently. Several changes were made at the ATR to meet the demands of the sponsors and public. Such changes included some workforce reductions, securing additional program sponsors, upgrading some facilities, dismantling other facilities, and implementing new safety programs. (author)

  17. The socio-technical setting of economic stakes of global environment risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salles, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    For policy-making for fighting acid rain, protecting the ozone layer and initiating action to prevent global climate change related to the growth of the greenhouse effect, the economic approach requires more precise consideration of how the economic stakes attached to these threats have been built up by their social actors. Global environmental risks (GER) are not directly perceivable nor can they be easily related to any activity or phenomena at local level (in time or space). There are scientific controversies about the reality of damage and establishing credible responsibility links. Moreover, these controversies are brought to media and social debate before any scientific clarification is possible. The media representations of GER emphasize the fact they could have catastrophic and irreversible consequences. So, the social demand for public action becomes very heavy when delay, possibly of several years between the causes and consequences of global environmental change, prevents any rapid clarification in the controversies. These difficulties have led to the evolution of a decision process in several steps: firstly, an international convention is prepared in which signatory countries commit themselves to cooperate and to take action; secondly, one or several agreements are signed with clear technical objectives and a timetable for implementations. 23 refs

  18. Economic analysis of implementing respirator program or ventilation system in a manufacturing environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saidi-Mehrabab, M.

    2000-01-01

    The techniques and methods of developing cost models for respirators are discussed. Models are developed and implemented in this study for nineteen types of respirators in two major classes (air-purifying and supplied-air) and one L EV system. One respirator model is selected for detailed discussion from among the twenty models. The technical cost method is used in constructing the cost models for each of the respirators and the L EV system. In this methodology, the costs of purchasing and using a typical respirator or L EV system are divided into two categories, variable costs and fixed costs. Variable costs consists of the cost of replaceable components and probabilistic mortality cost. Fixed cost is the annualized capital requirement plus interest cost. The criteria for estimating some of the cost elements are based on existing equations in the literature, engineering judgement and manufacturer-provided information. A technical cost model results from the integration of this information into a computerized framework. The cost models for discussion are presented in the order of increasing computational complexity. Through the economic analysis, the lowest cost type in each class of respirator is determined. The determination criteria are based on the minimum total annual cost and highest benefit cost ratio. The selected lowest cost respirators are compared with the L EV system from the economic standpoint to reveal the cost optimal alternative

  19. Economic-energy-environment analysis of prospective sugarcane bioethanol production in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopes de Carvalho, Ariovaldo; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Freire, Fausto

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A Hybrid IO-MOLP model is formulated for energy-economic-environmental analysis. • Scenarios for sugarcane cultivation and 1st- and 2nd-generation bioethanol production. • Higher energy use and GHG emissions due to chemicals in 2G processes. • Lower overall employment level in the 1G + 2G scenarios compared to the 1G scenario. • Policies and technological choices should consider direct and indirect effects of 2G. - Abstract: Bioethanol from sugarcane can be produced using first-generation (1G) or second-generation (2G) technologies. 2G technologies can increase the capacity of production per sugarcane mass input and are expected to have a key role in future reductions of environmental impacts of sugarcane bioethanol. A hybrid Input-Output (IO) framework is developed for Brazil coupling the System of National Accounts and the National Energy Balance, which is extended to assess Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Life-cycle based estimates for two sugarcane cultivation systems, two 1G and eight 2G bioethanol production scenarios, are coupled in the IO framework. A multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model is formulated based on this framework for energy-economic-environmental analysis of the Brazilian economic system and domestic bioethanol supply in prospective scenarios. Twenty-four solutions are computed: four “extreme” solutions resulting from the individual optimization of each objective function (GDP, employment level, total energy consumption and total GHG emissions - 1G scenario), ten compromise solutions minimizing the distance of the feasible region to the ideal solution (1G, 1G-optimized and prospective 1G + 2G scenarios), and ten solutions maximizing the total bioethanol production (1G, 1G-optimized and prospective 1G + 2G scenarios). Higher diesel oil and lubricants consumption in the mechanical harvesting process has counterbalanced the positive effects of more efficient trucks leading to higher energy consumption and GHG

  20. Coupled energy economic model framework for analyzing Swiss electricity markets in changing policy environments

    OpenAIRE

    Maire, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    Energy policy needs to rely on the proper understanding of the interactions between policy instruments, consumer preferences, investment behavior, market structure, electricity supply, and the wider policy environment. This asks for appropriate modeling tools, able to represent precisely electricity supply options, model all types of energy and climate policies, as well as the reactions of the rest of the economy. Chapter 2 describes the ELECTRA-CH framework, developed to analyze electrici...

  1. THE GREEN AREAS MANAGEMENT AND THEIR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTEGRATION IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT

    OpenAIRE

    ADINA CLAUDIA NEAMTU; LIVIU NEAMTU

    2014-01-01

    The situation that exists at the level of the urban areas from Romania testifies a natural environment with a high risk for the health of the inhabitants as a consequence of the low level of the ecological development resulted from the lack of an integrated management of the green areas and spaces in comparison with the other components of the sustainable development. In the strategic management of the green areas and spaces having as purpose the improvement of the quality of ...

  2. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT ON LAND-USE PLANNING-A Case Study of Changchun Economic and Technological Zone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The study centers on the necessity, the workflow and the synthetically integrated methods (Principal Component Analysis(PCA), AndyticalHierarchyProcess(AHP) andFuzzy ComprerhensiveEvaluation(FCE)) of strategic environment assessment (SEA) on land-use planning. The whole article includes three main parts: firstly, some attributedatabase, graphic-base and the spatial transform matrix, which reflect the change of regional land-use pattern, can be obtained by GIS technique; secondly, adopting fitting method of trend-surface analysis will convert environment monitoringdata from scattered spots to regular control spots, based on which we can perform regional environment impact assessment; finally, Changchun Economic and Technological Developmen Zone is chosen as a case study on land-use planning.Through those efforts the results may be obtained as follows: 1 ) according to transform matrix, the possibility of transformation from one land-use to another can be obtained after the planning is carried out; 2) environment quality would changeas a result of the change of land-nsc pattern; 3) the SEA on land-use plan is an effective tool to make land-use patternmore reasonable.

  3. Stochasticity and determinism in models of hematopoiesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, Marek

    2014-01-01

    This chapter represents a novel view of modeling in hematopoiesis, synthesizing both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Whereas the stochastic models work in situations where chance dominates, for example when the number of cells is small, or under random mutations, the deterministic models are more important for large-scale, normal hematopoiesis. New types of models are on the horizon. These models attempt to account for distributed environments such as hematopoietic niches and their impact on dynamics. Mixed effects of such structures and chance events are largely unknown and constitute both a challenge and promise for modeling. Our discussion is presented under the separate headings of deterministic and stochastic modeling; however, the connections between both are frequently mentioned. Four case studies are included to elucidate important examples. We also include a primer of deterministic and stochastic dynamics for the reader's use.

  4. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  5. Elitism and Stochastic Dominance

    OpenAIRE

    Bazen, Stephen; Moyes, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic dominance has typically been used with a special emphasis on risk and inequality reduction something captured by the concavity of the utility function in the expected utility model. We claim that the applicability of the stochastic dominance approach goes far beyond risk and inequality measurement provided suitable adpations be made. We apply in the paper the stochastic dominance approach to the measurment of elitism which may be considered the opposite of egalitarianism. While the...

  6. THE COMMUNICATION PROCESS IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT. ECONOMIC AND MORAL PRINCIPLES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CLAUDIA ELENA PAICU

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The economic communication is more than a decade a point of interest due to the communication supports development and the diversity of information, on one hand, and due to the need for documentation and knowledge, both at the individual level and at the level of society, on the other hand. Thus the freedom into thinking and expression led to the development of communication activities and collecting them in a new vision. The process of communication has become, in a relatively short time, one of the engines of the economy, but also an integral part of what is meant to be today, the psycho-sociology of modern human societies. In this context, we propose an analysis of the communicative process that takes place in the economic environment, since the information and communication technology is, at present, a real factor in sustainable development. We start the analysis from the tight interdependence between the economic communication and the development of human culture as a basic factor for efficient management and for sustainable development overall.

  7. Round table on economic instruments for environmental protection. A brief to the Senate Standing Committee on Energy and the Environment and Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1992-10-20

    The Canadian Nuclear Association is presenting a brief to the Senate Standing Committee on energy and the environment and natural resources. When looking at the techniques to reduce pollution from energy activity, a preference is towards the economic instruments, away from the command and control techniques. Economic instruments provide incentives to all the participants in the marketplace.

  8. Round table on economic instruments for environmental protection. A brief to the Senate Standing Committee on Energy and the Environment and Natural Resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Canadian Nuclear Association is presenting a brief to the Senate Standing Committee on energy and the environment and natural resources. When looking at the techniques to reduce pollution from energy activity, a preference is towards the economic instruments, away from the command and control techniques. Economic instruments provide incentives to all the participants in the marketplace

  9. Some recent developments in stochastic volatility modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Nicolato, Elisa; Shephard, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews and puts in context some of our recent work on stochastic volatility (SV) modelling for financial economics. Here our main focus is on: (i) the relationship between subordination and SV, (ii) OU based volatility models, (iii) exact option pricing, (iv) realized power variation...

  10. Permutation Tests for Stochastic Ordering and ANOVA

    CERN Document Server

    Basso, Dario; Salmaso, Luigi; Solari, Aldo

    2009-01-01

    Permutation testing for multivariate stochastic ordering and ANOVA designs is a fundamental issue in many scientific fields such as medicine, biology, pharmaceutical studies, engineering, economics, psychology, and social sciences. This book presents advanced methods and related R codes to perform complex multivariate analyses

  11. Singular stochastic differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Cherny, Alexander S

    2005-01-01

    The authors introduce, in this research monograph on stochastic differential equations, a class of points termed isolated singular points. Stochastic differential equations possessing such points (called singular stochastic differential equations here) arise often in theory and in applications. However, known conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a solution typically fail for such equations. The book concentrates on the study of the existence, the uniqueness, and, what is most important, on the qualitative behaviour of solutions of singular stochastic differential equations. This is done by providing a qualitative classification of isolated singular points, into 48 possible types.

  12. Stochastic Modeling and Optimization in a Microgrid: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Liang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The future smart grid is expected to be an interconnected network of small-scale and self-contained microgrids, in addition to a large-scale electric power backbone. By utilizing microsources, such as renewable energy sources and combined heat and power plants, microgrids can supply electrical and heat loads in local areas in an economic and environment friendly way. To better adopt the intermittent and weather-dependent renewable power generation, energy storage devices, such as batteries, heat buffers and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs with vehicle-to-grid systems can be integrated in microgrids. However, significant technical challenges arise in the planning, operation and control of microgrids, due to the randomness in renewable power generation, the buffering effect of energy storage devices and the high mobility of PEVs. The two-way communication functionalities of the future smart grid provide an opportunity to address these challenges, by offering the communication links for microgrid status information collection. However, how to utilize stochastic modeling and optimization tools for efficient, reliable and economic planning, operation and control of microgrids remains an open issue. In this paper, we investigate the key features of microgrids and provide a comprehensive literature survey on the stochastic modeling and optimization tools for a microgrid. Future research directions are also identified.

  13. Environmental policy and environment-saving technologies. Economic aspects of policy making under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ossokina, I.

    2003-07-01

    It is generally known that natural environment is profoundly influenced by technological change. The direction and the size of this influence are, however, surrounded by uncertainties, which substantially complicate environmental policy making. This dissertation uses game-theoretical models to study policy making under uncertainty about (a) the costs of technological advances in pollution control, (b) the preferences of the policy maker and the voters, and (c) the consequences of policy measures. From a positive point of view the analysis provides explanations for environmental policies in modern democracies. From a normative point of view it gives a number of recommendations to improve environmental policies.

  14. [Coupling coordination evaluation method between eco-environment quality and economic development level in contiguous special poverty-stricken areas of China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-hui; Li, Jing-yi

    2015-05-01

    It is one of the important strategies in the new period of national poverty alleviation and development to maintain the basic balance between the ecological environment and economic development, and to promote the coordinated sustainable development of economy and ecological environment. Taking six contiguous special poverty-stricken areas as the study areas, a coupling coordination evaluation method between eco-environment quality and economic development level in contiguous special poverty-stricken areas was explored in this paper. The region' s ecological poverty index system was proposed based on the natural attribute of ecological environment, and the ecological environment quality evaluation method was built up by using AHP weighting method, followed by the design of the coupling coordination evaluation method between the ecological environment indices and the county economic poverty comprehensive indices. The coupling coordination degrees were calculated and their spatial representation differentiations were analyzed respectively at district, province, city, and county scales. Results showed that approximately half of the counties in the study areas achieved the harmoniously coordinated development. However, the ecological environmental quality and the economic development in most counties could not be synchronized, where mountains, rivers and other geographic features existed roughly as a dividing line of the coordinated development types. The phenomena of dislocation between the ecological environment and economic development in state-level poor counties were more serious than those of local poor counties.

  15. Evaluation of economical introduction of nuclear fusion based on a long-term world energy and environment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Konishi, S.; Ogawa, Y.; Yamaji, K.

    2003-01-01

    Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. The time frame by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we chose two roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: i) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and ii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction time frame for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint; however, latter introduction of them decreases the cost and the tax less than five times. Earlier introduction of nuclear fusion reactors are desirable for energy systems and environment. (author)

  16. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  17. The development of customers’ satisfaction in the banking sector of Slovakia in the turbulent economic environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Belás

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Satisfaction of bank’s customers presents important area of building of long-term relationships with the client, which significantly determines the financial performance of commercial banks through successful business. Satisfied customer buy bank’s products, is willing to pay also higher price for the product or service and represents some form of free advertising and considerable less effort, time and money needed for keep him, than to get a new one. This article presents current situation in the banking sector in Slovakia and quantifies changes in the area of customer satisfaction, which occurred during the financial and economic crisis. Customer satisfaction research has been conducted through a questionnaire survey. First research has been carried out on the first half of 2008 on the sample of 298 respondents, ie. the time before the financial crisis. In that time, the greatest satisfaction has been assigned to the availability of bank’s products and services, and the greatest dissatisfaction has been expressed by respondents to the prices of banking products and services. In 2012, this research has been conducted on the sample of 320 respondents. The change of satisfaction factors, respectively dissatisfied bank’s customers compared with 2008 has been investigated by standard statistical methods. Results of our research in 2012 showed satisfaction reduction of bank customers and also changes in respondents’ preferences of the perception of satisfaction factors, respectively dissatisfaction in relation to commercial banks.

  18. An economic evaluation of Clostridium difficile infection management in an Italian hospital environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magalini, S; Pepe, G; Panunzi, S; Spada, P L; De Gaetano, A; Gui, D

    2012-12-01

    Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) accounts for the majority of nosocomial cases of diarrhea, and with recent upsurge of multidrug-resistant strains, morbidity and mortality have increased. Data on clinical impact of CDI come mostly from Anglo-Saxon countries, while in Italy only two studies address the issue and no economic data exist on costs of CDI in the in hospital setting. A retrospective cross-sectional study with pharmacoeconomic analysis was performed on the CDI series of the Policlinico Gemelli of Rome, a major 1400 bed Hospital. The clinical charts of 133 patients in a 26 month period were reviewed. All costs of the involved resources were calculated and statistical analysis was carried out with means and standard deviations, and categorical variables as number and percentages. The results show the significant sanitary costs of CDI in an Italian hospital setting. The cost analysis of the various elements (exams, imaging studies, therapies, etc.) shows that none independently influences the high cost burden of CDI, but that it is the simple length of hospital stay that represents the most important factor. Prevention of CDI is the most cost-effective approach. The major break-through in cost reduction of CDI would be a therapeutical intervention or procedure that shortens hospital length of stay.

  19. Environment and economic risk: An analysis of carbon emission market and portfolio management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Cuicui; Wu, Desheng

    2016-08-01

    Climate change has been one of the biggest and most controversial environmental issues of our times. It affects the global economy, environment and human health. Many researchers find that carbon dioxide (CO2) has contributed the most to climate change between 1750 and 2005. In this study, the orthogonal GARCH (OGARCH) model is applied to examine the time-varying correlations in European CO2 allowance, crude oil and stock markets in US, Europe and China during the Protocol's first commitment period. The results show that the correlations between EUA carbon spot price and the equity markets are higher and more volatile in US and Europe than in China. Then the optimal portfolios consisting these five time series are selected by Mean-Variance and Mean-CVAR models. It shows that the optimal portfolio selected by MV-OGARCH model has the best performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The Influence of Major Life Events on Economic Attitudes in a World of Gene-Environment Interplay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatemi, Peter K

    2013-10-01

    The role of "genes" on political attitudes has gained attention across disciplines. However, person-specific experiences have yet to be incorporated into models that consider genetic influences. Relying on a gene-environment interplay approach, this study explicates how life-events, such as losing one's job or suffering a financial loss, influence economic policy attitudes. The results indicate genetic and environmental variance on support for unions, immigration, capitalism, socialism and property tax is moderated by financial risks. Changes in the magnitude of genetic influences, however, are temporary. After two years, the phenotypic effects of the life events remain on most attitudes, but changes in the sources of individual differences do not. Univariate twin models that estimate the independent contributions of genes and environment on the variation of attitudes appear to provide robust baseline indicators of sources of individual differences. These estimates, however, are not event or day specific. In this way, genetic influences add stability, while environment cues change, and this process is continually updated.

  1. Unpacking Socio-Economic Risks for Reading and Academic Self-Concept in Primary School: Differential Effects and the Role of the Preschool Home Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crampton, Alexandria; Hall, James

    2017-01-01

    Background: Uncertainty remains concerning how children's reading and academic self-concept are related and how these are differentially affected by social disadvantage and home learning environments. Aims: To contrast the impacts of early socio-economic risks and preschool home learning environments upon British children's reading abilities and…

  2. Stochastic analytic regularization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfaro, J.

    1984-07-01

    Stochastic regularization is reexamined, pointing out a restriction on its use due to a new type of divergence which is not present in the unregulated theory. Furthermore, we introduce a new form of stochastic regularization which permits the use of a minimal subtraction scheme to define the renormalized Green functions. (author)

  3. Instantaneous stochastic perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lüscher, Martin

    2015-01-01

    A form of stochastic perturbation theory is described, where the representative stochastic fields are generated instantaneously rather than through a Markov process. The correctness of the procedure is established to all orders of the expansion and for a wide class of field theories that includes all common formulations of lattice QCD.

  4. Stochastic climate theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gottwald, G.A.; Crommelin, D.T.; Franzke, C.L.E.; Franzke, C.L.E.; O'Kane, T.J.

    2017-01-01

    In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations contain a Markov term, a memory term and a term suggestive of

  5. On Stochastic Dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Joerg M.

    2018-01-01

    The contrary of stochastic independence splits up into two cases: pairs of events being favourable or being unfavourable. Examples show that both notions have quite unexpected properties, some of them being opposite to intuition. For example, transitivity does not hold. Stochastic dependence is also useful to explain cases of Simpson's paradox.

  6. Cocaine behavioral economics: From the naturalistic environment to the controlled laboratory setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwald, Mark K.; Steinmiller, Caren L.

    2017-01-01

    Background We previously observed that behavioral economic factors predict naturalistic heroin seeking behavior that correlates with opioid seeking in the experimental laboratory. The present study sought to replicate and extend these prior findings with regular cocaine users. Methods Participants (N = 83) completed a semi-structured interview to establish income-generating and cocaine-purchasing/use repertoire during the past month. Questions addressed sources/amounts of income and expenditures; price (money and time) per purchase; and frequency/amounts of cocaine purchased and consumed. Naturalistic cocaine purchasing and use patterns were: (1) analyzed as a function of income quartile, (2) perturbed by hypothetical changes in cost factors to assess changes in purchasing/use habits, and (3) correlated with experimental cocaine seeking. Results Income was positively related to naturalistic cocaine seeking/use pattern (i.e., income elastic), and behaviors were cost-efficient and sensitive to supply chain. Income was unrelated to proportional expenditure on cocaine (≈55%) but inversely related to food expenditure. In all hypothetical scenarios (changes in income or dealer, loss of income assistance from government or family/friends, and increasing arrest risk when purchasing), the high-income group reported they would continue to use more cocaine daily than other groups. Number of laboratory cocaine choices significantly correlated with cocaine purchase time (positively) and purity of cocaine (negatively) in the naturalistic setting. Conclusions These results replicate and extend findings with regular heroin users, demonstrate the importance of income, cost-efficiency and supply-mindedness in cocaine seeking/use, and suggest that this interview-based approach has good external validity. PMID:24878248

  7. Stochastic Fatigue Analysis of Jacket Type Offshore Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigurdsson, Gudfinnur

    In this paper, a stochastic reliability assessment for jacket type offshore structures subjected to wave loads in deep water environments is outlined. In the reliability assessment, structural and loading uncertainties are taken into account by means of some stochastic variables. To estimate stat...... statistical measures of structural stress variations the modal spectral analysis method is applied....

  8. Stochastic quantization and gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumpf, H.

    1984-01-01

    We give a preliminary account of the application of stochastic quantization to the gravitational field. We start in Section I from Nelson's formulation of quantum mechanics as Newtonian stochastic mechanics and only then introduce the Parisi-Wu stochastic quantization scheme on which all the later discussion will be based. In Section II we present a generalization of the scheme that is applicable to fields in physical (i.e. Lorentzian) space-time and treat the free linearized gravitational field in this manner. The most remarkable result of this is the noncausal propagation of conformal gravitons. Moreover the concept of stochastic gauge-fixing is introduced and a complete discussion of all the covariant gauges is given. A special symmetry relating two classes of covariant gauges is exhibited. Finally Section III contains some preliminary remarks on full nonlinear gravity. In particular we argue that in contrast to gauge fields the stochastic gravitational field cannot be transformed to a Gaussian process. (Author)

  9. Stochastic neuron models

    CERN Document Server

    Greenwood, Priscilla E

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a large number of open problems in the theory of stochastic neural systems, with the aim of enticing probabilists to work on them. This includes problems arising from stochastic models of individual neurons as well as those arising from stochastic models of the activities of small and large networks of interconnected neurons. The necessary neuroscience background to these problems is outlined within the text, so readers can grasp the context in which they arise. This book will be useful for graduate students and instructors providing material and references for applying probability to stochastic neuron modeling. Methods and results are presented, but the emphasis is on questions where additional stochastic analysis may contribute neuroscience insight. An extensive bibliography is included. Dr. Priscilla E. Greenwood is a Professor Emerita in the Department of Mathematics at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Lawrence M. Ward is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Brain...

  10. Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and the Environment: Time Series Evidence from G-20 Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jungho Baek

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the dynamic interrelationships between trade, income growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions for G-20 economies in a framework of cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR. Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to estimate the coefficients of the cointegrated VAR. The results show that trade and income growth have a favorable effect on environmental quality for the developed G-20 member countries, while they have an adverse effect on the environment for the developing member countries. We also find that energy con- sumption tends to worsen environmental quality for both the developed and developing countries. Finally, it is found that trade and income to emission and energy causality holds for the developed countries; changes in degree of trade openness and income growth lead to corresponding changes in the rates of growth in emission and energy consumption. Emission and energy to trade and income causality, on the other hand, is found to hold for the developing countries; any shocks in emission and energy consumption cause corresponding fluctuations in income growth and trade openness.

  11. THE GREEN AREAS MANAGEMENT AND THEIR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTEGRATION IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADINA CLAUDIA NEAMTU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The situation that exists at the level of the urban areas from Romania testifies a natural environment with a high risk for the health of the inhabitants as a consequence of the low level of the ecological development resulted from the lack of an integrated management of the green areas and spaces in comparison with the other components of the sustainable development. In the strategic management of the green areas and spaces having as purpose the improvement of the quality of air the priority role is held by the obtainment of necessary information in the view of adopting decision. In this context, monitoring the existent green areas represents a fundamental element that has to provide the necessary information. In correlation with this monitoring it is necessary the realization of the operative informational system for supervising the air quality constituted automatically from fix monitoring points and in a real time of the main air pollutants. The domains of sustainable development at the level of urban areas are considered to be: urban planning, the management of green areas and air quality, the management and the reduction of the sweepings, water quality, energy efficiency, clean and efficient transportation, etc.

  12. Key Economic Parameters for an Optimal Pharmacy Network in a Regulated Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franjo MLINARIC

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacies are an integral part of the modern healthcare system which strives for a holistic and effi cient care. General practitioners and pharmacists are held in high esteem among local communities as they are the fi rst point of contact when people have health issues. However, a strong demand for health services in developed countries and its present fi nancing schemes undermined the sustainability of the whole health system (8.9% of GDP in 2013 and growing. According to WHO and EU recommendations, the whole healthcare system shall accept a holistic approach and focus on education, prevention and proper medicine consume. Part of this strategy is a seamless care concept, where medical doctors and pharmacists build a team around the well-being of a patient. Financing scheme incentives and KPI’s (key performance indicators will be focused on keeping people healthy, instead of paying for procedures. The future healthcare ecosystem obliges pharmacists to optimize network coverage and to extend health services. Nevertheless, their growth strategy needs to be gradual, considering the present level of network coverage, the low pace of private and public expenditures for medicine and services, and the fact that a new fi nancing model for pharmacies is still unknown. Thus, we expect the development of pharmacy network in regulated environment to be fi nanced predominantly from retained earnings in publicly owned pharmacies and by awarding pharmacy concessions.

  13. Saline agriculture: A technology for economic utilization and improvement of saline environments (abstract)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslam, Z.; Malik, K.A.; Khurshid, S.J.; Awan, A.R.; Akram, M.; Hashmi, Z.; Ali, Y.; Gulnaz, A.; Hussain, M.; Hussain, F.

    2005-01-01

    The salinity problem is one of the severe constraints for agriculture in Pakistan. In a socio-economic and salinity and drainage survey over an area of about 25000 acres of salt-affected land recently, crop production is found to be very low. Livestock is underfed and malnourished. Pakistan has spent and allocated over one billion US dollars on Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARP), of course, with dubious results. Over the years, a Saline Agriculture Technology has been developed as a cheap alternative at NIAB for comfortably living with salinity and to profitably utilize saline land rather than its reclamation. The soil improvement is a fringe benefit in this approach. The Saline Agriculture Technology has been tested at laboratory level, at field stations and at farms of some progressive farmers. Now we are sharing this technology with farming communities through a 'Saline Agriculture Farmer Participatory Development Project in Pakistan', with assistance from the National Rural Support Programme. The new project has been launched simultaneously in all four provinces of Pakistan on 25000 acres of salt-affected land. Under this project seeds of salt tolerant crop varieties wheat, cotton, rice, castor, brassica and barley and saplings of trees/shrubs, e.g. Acacia ampliceps, A. nilotica, Casuarina glauca, ber, jaman, etc selected for development work in various institutions of Pakistan are being provided to farmers. Know-how on new irrigation techniques like bed-and-corrugation and bed-and-furrow, agronomic practices like laser land leveling, planting on beds and in auger holes and soil/water amendment practices (use of gypsum and mineral acids) are being shared with farmers. These interventions are quite efficient, save water up to 40% and enable farmers to utilize bad quality water. In general, farmers are being familiarized with prevalent animal diseases, nutritional problems and prophylactic techniques. They are being helped in developing Saline

  14. ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF GENDER EQUALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khatuna BERISHVILI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Term “gender” means socially constructed roles of man and woman, which are ascribed to them according to gender marker. Thus, gender roles depend on concrete socio-economic, political and culturological context and experience influence of various factors according to race, ethnic origin, class, sexual orientation and age. Gender roles widely differ within each culture and cultures. Unlike the individual’s biological gender, the gender role can be changed. This concept implies the views, conditioned by culture, about the intellectual potentials of man and woman, their personal features and behavior. Gender, as a construct, is formed by the society, as a social model of man and woman, which determines their role and position in all the spheres of the public life. To measure gender, like other hard-to-measure events, is of importance, in order to compare the countries, to identify the problems and to try their correction. It may be said that it enables us to disclose focus of the problems and in case of existence of proper will to positively act on it. Gender is multi-component and hard to measure. Research of the gender equality problems is important for the global business. Gender is a cultural construct, within which our different cultures attach different values, roles and responsibilities to men and women. It should be mentioned that the problems of women’s rights along with other barriers impeding achievement of the gender equality, have long been significant for the leading countries of Europe and America. However, one problem still remains – barriers of the so-called “Glass Ceiling”, which impede carrier advance of the female representatives. At the same time, in the countries, being on the lower level, a woman is still considered to be a being of secondary importance, which has no right to work and, compared with a man, no equal conditions to be educated. To this are added the religious laws of Islamic countries, which

  15. The association between neighborhood economic hardship, the retail food environment, fast food intake, and obesity: findings from the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laxy, Michael; Malecki, Kristen C; Givens, Marjory L; Walsh, Matthew C; Nieto, F Javier

    2015-03-13

    Neighborhood-level characteristics such as economic hardship and the retail food environment are assumed to be correlated and to influence consumers' dietary behavior and health status, but few studies have investigated these different relationships comprehensively in a single study. This work aims to investigate the association between neighborhood-level economic hardship, the retail food environment, fast food consumption, and obesity prevalence. Linking data from the population-based Survey of the Health of Wisconsin (SHOW, n = 1,570, 2008-10) and a commercially available business database, the Wisconsin Retail Food Environment Index (WRFEI) was defined as the mean distance from each participating household to the three closest supermarkets divided by the mean distance to the three closest convenience stores or fast food restaurants. Based on US census data, neighborhood-level economic hardship was defined by the Economic Hardship Index (EHI). Relationships were analyzed using multivariate linear and logistic regression models. SHOW residents living in neighborhoods with the highest economic hardship faced a less favorable retail food environment (WRFEI = 2.53) than residents from neighborhoods with the lowest economic hardship (WRFEI = 1.77; p-trend associations between the WRFEI and obesity and only a weak borderline-significant association between access to fast food restaurants and self-reported fast food consumption (≥ 2 times/week, OR = 0.59-0.62, p = 0.05-0.09) in urban residents. Participants reporting higher frequency of fast food consumption (≥ 2 times vs. obese (OR = 1.35, p = 0.06). This study indicates that neighborhood-level economic hardship is associated with an unfavorable retail food environment. However inconsistent or non-significant relationships between the retail food environment, fast food consumption, and obesity were observed. More research is needed to enhance methodological approaches to assess the retail food environment and

  16. A coupled stochastic inverse-management framework for dealing with nonpoint agriculture pollution under groundwater parameter uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llopis-Albert, Carlos; Palacios-Marqués, Daniel; Merigó, José M.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper a methodology for the stochastic management of groundwater quality problems is presented, which can be used to provide agricultural advisory services. A stochastic algorithm to solve the coupled flow and mass transport inverse problem is combined with a stochastic management approach to develop methods for integrating uncertainty; thus obtaining more reliable policies on groundwater nitrate pollution control from agriculture. The stochastic inverse model allows identifying non-Gaussian parameters and reducing uncertainty in heterogeneous aquifers by constraining stochastic simulations to data. The management model determines the spatial and temporal distribution of fertilizer application rates that maximizes net benefits in agriculture constrained by quality requirements in groundwater at various control sites. The quality constraints can be taken, for instance, by those given by water laws such as the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). Furthermore, the methodology allows providing the trade-off between higher economic returns and reliability in meeting the environmental standards. Therefore, this new technology can help stakeholders in the decision-making process under an uncertainty environment. The methodology has been successfully applied to a 2D synthetic aquifer, where an uncertainty assessment has been carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulation techniques.

  17. Agroforestry systems with fine aroma cocoa cultivation: socio-economic and productive environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyanira Mata Anchundia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The agroforestry systems with cocoa are good for many purposes and they give many products to a diversity of soil users, among them, to the families of the producers in their environment. The objective of the research was to evaluate the socioeconomic and productive factors in agroforestry systems with fine aroma cocoa of export, in the El Vergel parish of the Valencia canton, county of Los Ríos, Ecuador. A survey to a random sample of 35 farmers of El Vergel parish was carried out, to evaluate socioeconomic and productivevariables. A descriptive analysis was applied to the data of the surveys. Most of the interviewed producers (71,4 % ignore on agroforestry systems. The farmers possess among 0,63 up to 10 hectares. 100 % of them cultivates the fine aroma cocoa, like main cultivation and other secondary cultivations where they stand out the forest species (48,6 %. The families are conformed by 49,5 % males and 50,5 % women. Most of the farmers (males and women are home bosses, with an age that fluctuates among 45 to 54 years. Alone 37 % of the members of the home is devoted to the work in the agriculture. 51 % of the farmers cohabits in free union and 38,3 % are single. The main monthly entrance oscillates from zero to $488. The monthly expenses of the farmers fluctuate among $101,00 up to $500,00. The analyzed social and productive indicators are not in the level required to achieve the sustainable development of these agroforestry systems.

  18. Public health challenges for the 21st century: Convergence of demography, economics, environment and biology: Nalanda distinguished lecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, K M Venkat

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly changing and interdependent world under the mega-force of globalization presents unique challenges and opportunities for public health. Focusing on the example of type 2 diabetes, I argue that an appreciation for the evolution of demographic and economic contexts is essential to appropriately address today's dynamic and complex health challenges. For the vast majority of the past 2000 years, India and China were the world's largest economies until the rise of western European nations in the 18th century and later the USA. In the case of India, inflation-adjusted per capita income remained flat between 1700 and 1950, while in the same period that of the UK grew more than 7-fold, although the population of the UK relatively grew 3-times faster than that of India in the same period. This 250-year gap in industrial and economic development may be central to understanding the large burden of diabetes among individuals of Indian descent, and should be taken into account in a wider context to understand the divergence in health development between India and parts of the world which benefited from early industrial progress and accompanying improvements in food supply, hygiene and living conditions. Lessons from high-income countries support a strong emphasis on public health to achieve important populationwide health gains, and offer insights into the broader determinants of health such as economic and food security, equity, urban infrastructure, health-promoting environments, and access to high-quality health systems. Critical to contemporary public health is also strong data systems and evidence-based decision-making.

  19. Sequential stochastic optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Cairoli, Renzo

    1996-01-01

    Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-paramet

  20. Remarks on stochastic acceleration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graeff, P.

    1982-12-01

    Stochastic acceleration and turbulent diffusion are strong turbulence problems since no expansion parameter exists. Hence the problem of finding rigorous results is of major interest both for checking approximations and for reference models. Since we have found a way of constructing such models in the turbulent diffusion case the question of the extension to stochastic acceleration now arises. The paper offers some possibilities illustrated by the case of 'stochastic free fall' which may be particularly interesting in the context of linear response theory. (orig.)

  1. Unpacking socio-economic risks for reading and academic self-concept in primary school: Differential effects and the role of the preschool home learning environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crampton, Alexandria; Hall, James

    2017-09-01

    Uncertainty remains concerning how children's reading and academic self-concept are related and how these are differentially affected by social disadvantage and home learning environments. To contrast the impacts of early socio-economic risks and preschool home learning environments upon British children's reading abilities and academic self-concept between 7 and 10 years. n = 3,172 British children aged 3-10 years and their families. A secondary analysis of the nationally representative UK EPPE database. Multilevel structural equation modelling calculated the direct, indirect, and total impacts of early socio-economic risks (0-3 years) and preschool home learning environments (3-5 years) upon children's reading ability and academic self-concept between 7 and 10 years. Early socio-economic risk had different effects upon children's reading ability and academic self-concept. Early socio-economic risks affected children's reading at ages 7 and 10 both directly and indirectly via effects upon preschool home learning environments. By contrast, early socio-economic risks had only indirect effects upon children's academic self-concept via less stimulating home learning environments in the preschool period and by limiting reading abilities early on in primary school. Although the impacts of early socio-economic risks are larger and more easily observed upon reading than upon academic self-concept, they can impact both by making it less likely that children will experience enriching home learning environments during the preschool period. This has implications for social policymakers, early educators, and interventionists. Intervening early and improving preschool home learning environments can do more than raise children's reading abilities; secondary benefits may also be achievable upon children's self-concept. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  2. Emerging Entrepreneurial Universities in University Reforms: The moderating role of personalities and the social/economic environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    József Berács

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available University education, research and other services are increasingly becoming private goods as opposed to the traditional public goods concept. This trend is a highly debated process, and its consequences for universities are unquestionable. One of the consequences may be the diffusion of entrepreneurship in the higher education sector. The aim of the present paper is to highlight some of the characteristics of this process. Starting with the classics of entrepreneurship literature, Schumpeter defined the entrepreneur as somebody who goes against the stream. A new combination of production factors is the soul of entrepreneurship, and of any changes such as university reforms. Earlier research by Clark shed light on the environment of emerging entrepreneurial universities, which happened to be mainly new, relatively small universities. He found five indicators that are components of entrepreneurial universities. Taking this concept as a point of departure, we extended it in two directions. First, we go back to the economics literature and collect several other indicators/statements about entrepreneurship that are also worth considering in higher education. Second, we present a number of successful entrepreneurial cases of large top universities, looking for other indicators. Summarising these indicators in a table, two reforms of the Corvinus University of Budapest and its predecessors are discussed. Both of the reform processes lasted about five years, and there was a gap of approximately 20 years between the two processes. We would expect this to be successful, as a university needs to be reformed every 20 years, but this was not the case. We come to the surprising conclusion that, at least in case of the Corvinus University of Budapest, the two reforms in the socialist period were more entrepreneurial than the reforms we are experiencing now in a market economy environment. The explanation for this situation is twofold: the general socioeconomic

  3. Stochastic Strategy Adjustment in Coordination Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kosfeld, M.

    1999-01-01

    We explore a model of equilibrium selection in coordination games, where agents stochastically adjust their strategies to changes in their local environment. Instead of playing perturbed best-response, we assume that agents follow a rule of "switching to better strategies more likely". We relate

  4. Environmental Economics

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Glover, Bhim Adhikari and Isabelle Proulx

    Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia. ERF. Economic ... economists can contribute to this work by estimating the monetary value of such environment-related benefits ... One of the few safe places to put money has been land, ...

  5. Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

    2009-03-01

    A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

  6. Oriented stochastic data envelopment models: ranking comparison to stochastic frontier approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brázdik, František

    -, č. 271 (2005), s. 1-46 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : stochastic data envelopment analysis * linear programming * rice farm Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp271.pdf

  7. Energy investments and the environment: Selected topics. A collection of papers prepared for a workshop organized by the economic development Institute of the World Bank in October 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddayao, C.M.; Griffin, L.A.

    1993-01-01

    Energy systems, like all other economic activities, consume resources, disturb the environment, and create waste. Each activity in an energy system fuel cycle has an associated set of environmental impacts and resultant effect on society. In developing countries, in addition to the environmental impacts associated with modern technological developments in the energy system, there are serious environmental problems associated with heavy dependence on fuelwood and other biomass. In Africa, for example, understanding the economic and environmental issues associated with the demand and supply of fuels for the household sector is a priority issue. Hence, energy policy and planning issues need to be addressed within the framework of a country's economic development goals. They also need to incorporate the microeconomic foundations of macro policies, the interaction of the energy system with the rest of the economy and the environment, and the role of the institutional framework in implementing energy and environment policies

  8. Stochastic processes inference theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Malempati M

    2014-01-01

    This is the revised and enlarged 2nd edition of the authors’ original text, which was intended to be a modest complement to Grenander's fundamental memoir on stochastic processes and related inference theory. The present volume gives a substantial account of regression analysis, both for stochastic processes and measures, and includes recent material on Ridge regression with some unexpected applications, for example in econometrics. The first three chapters can be used for a quarter or semester graduate course on inference on stochastic processes. The remaining chapters provide more advanced material on stochastic analysis suitable for graduate seminars and discussions, leading to dissertation or research work. In general, the book will be of interest to researchers in probability theory, mathematical statistics and electrical and information theory.

  9. Introduction to stochastic calculus

    CERN Document Server

    Karandikar, Rajeeva L

    2018-01-01

    This book sheds new light on stochastic calculus, the branch of mathematics that is most widely applied in financial engineering and mathematical finance. The first book to introduce pathwise formulae for the stochastic integral, it provides a simple but rigorous treatment of the subject, including a range of advanced topics. The book discusses in-depth topics such as quadratic variation, Ito formula, and Emery topology. The authors briefly address continuous semi-martingales to obtain growth estimates and study solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) by using the technique of random time change. Later, by using Metivier–Pellumail inequality, the solutions to SDEs driven by general semi-martingales are discussed. The connection of the theory with mathematical finance is briefly discussed and the book has extensive treatment on the representation of martingales as stochastic integrals and a second fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Intended for undergraduate- and beginning graduate-level stud...

  10. Stochastic coalgebraic logic

    CERN Document Server

    Doberkat, Ernst-Erich

    2009-01-01

    Combining coalgebraic reasoning, stochastic systems and logic, this volume presents the principles of coalgebraic logic from a categorical perspective. Modal logics are also discussed, including probabilistic interpretations and an analysis of Kripke models.

  11. Approximating Preemptive Stochastic Scheduling

    OpenAIRE

    Megow Nicole; Vredeveld Tjark

    2009-01-01

    We present constant approximative policies for preemptive stochastic scheduling. We derive policies with a guaranteed performance ratio of 2 for scheduling jobs with release dates on identical parallel machines subject to minimizing the sum of weighted completion times. Our policies as well as their analysis apply also to the recently introduced more general model of stochastic online scheduling. The performance guarantee we give matches the best result known for the corresponding determinist...

  12. The stochastic goodwill problem

    OpenAIRE

    Marinelli, Carlo

    2003-01-01

    Stochastic control problems related to optimal advertising under uncertainty are considered. In particular, we determine the optimal strategies for the problem of maximizing the utility of goodwill at launch time and minimizing the disutility of a stream of advertising costs that extends until the launch time for some classes of stochastic perturbations of the classical Nerlove-Arrow dynamics. We also consider some generalizations such as problems with constrained budget and with discretionar...

  13. BRST stochastic quantization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hueffel, H.

    1990-01-01

    After a brief review of the BRST formalism and of the Parisi-Wu stochastic quantization method we introduce the BRST stochastic quantization scheme. It allows the second quantization of constrained Hamiltonian systems in a manifestly gauge symmetry preserving way. The examples of the relativistic particle, the spinning particle and the bosonic string are worked out in detail. The paper is closed by a discussion on the interacting field theory associated to the relativistic point particle system. 58 refs. (Author)

  14. Optimal control of stochastic difference Volterra equations an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Shaikhet, Leonid

    2015-01-01

    This book showcases a subclass of hereditary systems, that is, systems with behaviour depending not only on their current state but also on their past history; it is an introduction to the mathematical theory of optimal control for stochastic difference Volterra equations of neutral type. As such, it will be of much interest to researchers interested in modelling processes in physics, mechanics, automatic regulation, economics and finance, biology, sociology and medicine for all of which such equations are very popular tools. The text deals with problems of optimal control such as meeting given performance criteria, and stabilization, extending them to neutral stochastic difference Volterra equations. In particular, it contrasts the difference analogues of solutions to optimal control and optimal estimation problems for stochastic integral Volterra equations with optimal solutions for corresponding problems in stochastic difference Volterra equations. Optimal Control of Stochastic Difference Volterra Equation...

  15. Dynamic and stochastic multi-project planning

    CERN Document Server

    Melchiors, Philipp

    2015-01-01

    This book deals with dynamic and stochastic methods for multi-project planning. Based on the idea of using queueing networks for the analysis of dynamic-stochastic multi-project environments this book addresses two problems: detailed scheduling of project activities, and integrated order acceptance and capacity planning. In an extensive simulation study, the book thoroughly investigates existing scheduling policies. To obtain optimal and near optimal scheduling policies new models and algorithms are proposed based on the theory of Markov decision processes and Approximate Dynamic programming.

  16. Joint  effects of habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity on population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer M. Fraterrigo; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

    2009-01-01

    Habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity in the environment are recognized as important drivers of population structure, yet few studies have examined the combined influence of these factors....

  17. Examining the relationship between the food environment and adult diabetes prevalence by county economic and racial composition: an ecological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes-Maslow, Lindsey; Leone, Lucia A

    2017-08-09

    Inequitable access to healthy food may contribute to health disparities. This study examines the relationship between the prevalence of adult diabetes and food access in the U.S. by county economic/racial composition. An ecological study from 2012 was used to estimate the relationship between diabetes and retail food outlet access. County diabetes prevalence was measured based on individual responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey question, "Have you ever been told by a doctor that you have diabetes?" If the answer was "yes" individuals were classified as having diabetes. Retail food outlets included grocery stores, supercenters, farmer's markets, full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants and convenience stores. Counties were categorized as "high-poverty" or "low-poverty". Counties were categorized as low (medium (4.6%-31.0%), and high (> 31.0%) percent minority residents. Multiple linear regression models estimated the association between retail food outlets and diabetes, controlling for confounders, and testing for interactions between retail food outlets and county racial composition. Regression models were conditioned on county economic composition. Data were analyzed in 2016. Density of retail foods outlets varied greatly by county economic and racial composition; counties with medium-minority populations had the least access to grocery stores and the highest access to fast food restaurants and convenience stores. Low poverty/low-minority population counties had the greatest access to farmer's markets and grocery stores. For low poverty/low-minority counties, grocery stores were associated with decreased of diabetes prevalence. Supercenters were associated with an increase in diabetes prevalence for high-poverty/low-minority counties. Only low poverty/medium-minority counties had a statistically significant relationship between farmer's markets and diabetes prevalence. Fast food restaurants were found to be positively associated with

  18. Examining the relationship between the food environment and adult diabetes prevalence by county economic and racial composition: an ecological study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsey Haynes-Maslow

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inequitable access to healthy food may contribute to health disparities. This study examines the relationship between the prevalence of adult diabetes and food access in the U.S. by county economic/racial composition. Methods An ecological study from 2012 was used to estimate the relationship between diabetes and retail food outlet access. County diabetes prevalence was measured based on individual responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey question, “Have you ever been told by a doctor that you have diabetes?” If the answer was “yes” individuals were classified as having diabetes. Retail food outlets included grocery stores, supercenters, farmer’s markets, full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants and convenience stores. Counties were categorized as “high-poverty” or “low-poverty”. Counties were categorized as low ( 31.0% percent minority residents. Multiple linear regression models estimated the association between retail food outlets and diabetes, controlling for confounders, and testing for interactions between retail food outlets and county racial composition. Regression models were conditioned on county economic composition. Data were analyzed in 2016. Results Density of retail foods outlets varied greatly by county economic and racial composition; counties with medium-minority populations had the least access to grocery stores and the highest access to fast food restaurants and convenience stores. Low poverty/low-minority population counties had the greatest access to farmer’s markets and grocery stores. For low poverty/low-minority counties, grocery stores were associated with decreased of diabetes prevalence. Supercenters were associated with an increase in diabetes prevalence for high-poverty/low-minority counties. Only low poverty/medium-minority counties had a statistically significant relationship between farmer’s markets and diabetes prevalence. Fast food restaurants

  19. Energy, environment, and economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Commoner, B

    1979-09-01

    In this interview, Dr. Barry Commoner discusses his analysis of energy problems as a function of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, i.e., that energy is necessary in order to perform work. As outlined in his book The Poverty of Power, a good thermodynamic approach matches the amount of energy expended with the task to be done. Electric transport is more energy efficient than private automobiles and illustrates how capital is wasted and social harm done to increase private profit. Inefficient energy use is the result of basing conservation efforts on the First rather than the Second Law. Commoner advocates social changes that give society more control over the means of production and the way resources are used. He feels the relative merits of solar energy and breeder reactors should be debated and a choice made, preferably for solar, to make a gradual transition to renewable resources. (DCK)

  20. A Compositional Semantics for Stochastic Reo Connectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Joo Moon

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a compositional semantics for the channel-based coordination language Reo which enables the analysis of quality of service (QoS properties of service compositions. For this purpose, we annotate Reo channels with stochastic delay rates and explicitly model data-arrival rates at the boundary of a connector, to capture its interaction with the services that comprise its environment. We propose Stochastic Reo automata as an extension of Reo automata, in order to compositionally derive a QoS-aware semantics for Reo. We further present a translation of Stochastic Reo automata to Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMCs. This translation enables us to use third-party CTMC verification tools to do an end-to-end performance analysis of service compositions.

  1. Methodological Tools for the Assessment of Ecological and Socio-Economic Environment in the Region within the Limits of the Sustainability of Biosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksey Yuryevich Davankov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the study of ecological and socio-economic environment as well as the development of effective methodological tool for the assessment of its stability. This tool allows to ascertain the level of economic activity of the regions within the limits of the sustainability of biosphere. In the article, the regional system is considered as the total of industrial enterprises, social infrastructure and natural environment creating a specific territorial ecological and socio-economic environment, whose stability depends on the level of economic activity measured by the capacity of territorial ecosystem. The use of a technique for the comparative assessment of the energy indicators of economic activity creating a specific ecological and socio-economic environment of the region as well as of the indicator of the ecological capacity of the territory is proved. The ecological capacity of the territory enables to better estimate the level of the sustainability of the region within the limits of sustainability of biosphere. This method allows to forecast the development of the studied territory by the measurement of general energy flow on the basis of closed material and energy flows. The research revealed an indicator of the sustainability of ecological and socio-economic environment of Ural Federal District. Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District is the most stable, the Chelyabinsk region is the least stable, which is associated with both natural conditions and the specificities of economic structure. The labour productivity indicator, expressed in energy units, has revealed regions with rich natural resources. It was found that in these regions, there are significant material flows in the electricity industry that leads to a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. The assessment of the demographic capacity fully correlates with the calculations of the stability indicator of the regional system and the analysis of labour

  2. New insights into the stochastic ray production frontier

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Henningsen, A.; Bělín, Matěj; Henningsen, G.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 156, July (2017), s. 18-21 ISSN 0165-1765 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) SVV260475 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : stochastic ray production frontier * distance function * multiple outputs Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 0.558, year: 2016

  3. Life cycle energy, environment and economic assessment of soybean-based biodiesel as an alternative automotive fuel in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Zhiyuan; Tan, Piqiang; Lou, Diming; Yan, Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    Life cycle energy, environment and economic assessment for conventional diesel (CD) and soybean-based biodiesel (SB) in China was carried out in this paper. The results of the assessment have shown that compared with CD, SB has similar source-to-tank (StT) total energy consumption, 76% lower StT fossil energy consumption, 79% higher source-to-wheel (StW) nitrogen oxides (NO X ) emissions, 31%, 44%, 36%, 29%, and 67% lower StW hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), sulfur oxides (SO X ), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, respectively. SB is thus considered to be much more renewable and cleaner than CD. However, the retail price of SB at gas stations would be about 86% higher than that of CD without government subsidy according to the cost assessment and China had to import large amount of soybean to meet the demand in recent years. Therefore, although SB is one of the most promising clean and alternative fuels, currently it is not a good choice for China. It is strategically important for China to diversify the feedstock for biodiesel and to consider other kinds of alternative fuels to substitute CD. (author)

  4. Some Remarks on Stochastic Versions of the Ramsey Growth Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sladký, Karel

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 29 (2012), s. 139-152 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/1610; GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Economic dynamics * Ramsey growth model with disturbance * stochastic dynamic programming * multistage stochastic programs Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/sladky-some remarks on stochastic versions of the ramsey growth model.pdf

  5. Slum upgrading strategies involving physical environment and infrastructure interventions and their effects on health and socio-economic outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turley, Ruth; Saith, Ruhi; Bhan, Nandita; Rehfuess, Eva; Carter, Ben

    2013-01-31

    Slums are densely populated, neglected parts of cities where housing and living conditions are exceptionally poor. In situ slum upgrading, at its basic level, involves improving the physical environment of the existing area, such as improving and installing basic infrastructure like water, sanitation, solid waste collection, electricity, storm water drainage, access roads and footpaths, and street lighting, as well as home improvements and securing land tenure. To explore the effects of slum upgrading strategies involving physical environment and infrastructure interventions on the health, quality of life and socio-economic wellbeing of urban slum dwellers in low and middle income countries (LMIC). Where reported, data were collected on the perspectives of slum dwellers regarding their needs, preferences for and satisfaction with interventions received. We searched for published and unpublished studies in 28 bibliographic databases including multidisciplinary (for example Scopus) and specialist databases covering health, social science, urban planning, environment and LMIC topics. Snowballing techniques included searching websites, journal handsearching, contacting authors and reference list checking. Searches were not restricted by language or publication date. We included studies examining the impact of slum upgrading strategies involving physical environment or infrastructure improvements (with or without additional co-interventions) on the health, quality of life and socio-economic wellbeing of LMIC urban slum dwellers. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series (ITS) were eligible for the main analysis. Controlled studies with only post-intervention data (CPI) and uncontrolled before and after (UBA) studies were included in a separate narrative to examine consistency of results and to supplement evidence gaps in the main analysis. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias

  6. Multistage Stochastic Programming via Autoregressive Sequences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaňková, Vlasta

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2007), s. 99-110 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/07/1113; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/0990; GA ČR GD402/03/H057 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Economic proceses * Multistage stochastic programming * autoregressive sequences * individual probability constraints Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  7. Transport in Stochastic Media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haran, O.; Shvarts, D.; Thieberger, R.

    1998-01-01

    Classical transport of neutral particles in a binary, scattering, stochastic media is discussed. It is assumed that the cross-sections of the constituent materials and their volume fractions are known. The inner structure of the media is stochastic, but there exist a statistical knowledge about the lump sizes, shapes and arrangement. The transmission through the composite media depends on the specific heterogeneous realization of the media. The current research focuses on the averaged transmission through an ensemble of realizations, frm which an effective cross-section for the media can be derived. The problem of one dimensional transport in stochastic media has been studied extensively [1]. In the one dimensional description of the problem, particles are transported along a line populated with alternating material segments of random lengths. The current work discusses transport in two-dimensional stochastic media. The phenomenon that is unique to the multi-dimensional description of the problem is obstacle bypassing. Obstacle bypassing tends to reduce the opacity of the media, thereby reducing its effective cross-section. The importance of this phenomenon depends on the manner in which the obstacles are arranged in the media. Results of transport simulations in multi-dimensional stochastic media are presented. Effective cross-sections derived from the simulations are compared against those obtained for the one-dimensional problem, and against those obtained from effective multi-dimensional models, which are partially based on a Markovian assumption

  8. COSMIC DUST AGGREGATION WITH STOCHASTIC CHARGING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthews, Lorin S.; Hyde, Truell W.; Shotorban, Babak

    2013-01-01

    The coagulation of cosmic dust grains is a fundamental process which takes place in astrophysical environments, such as presolar nebulae and circumstellar and protoplanetary disks. Cosmic dust grains can become charged through interaction with their plasma environment or other processes, and the resultant electrostatic force between dust grains can strongly affect their coagulation rate. Since ions and electrons are collected on the surface of the dust grain at random time intervals, the electrical charge of a dust grain experiences stochastic fluctuations. In this study, a set of stochastic differential equations is developed to model these fluctuations over the surface of an irregularly shaped aggregate. Then, employing the data produced, the influence of the charge fluctuations on the coagulation process and the physical characteristics of the aggregates formed is examined. It is shown that dust with small charges (due to the small size of the dust grains or a tenuous plasma environment) is affected most strongly

  9. Stochastic approach to microphysics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aron, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    The presently widespread idea of ''vacuum population'', together with the quantum concept of vacuum fluctuations leads to assume a random level below that of matter. This stochastic approach starts by a reminder of the author's previous work, first on the relation of diffusion laws with the foundations of microphysics, and then on hadron spectrum. Following the latter, a random quark model is advanced; it gives to quark pairs properties similar to those of a harmonic oscillator or an elastic string, imagined as an explanation to their asymptotic freedom and their confinement. The stochastic study of such interactions as electron-nucleon, jets in e/sup +/e/sup -/ collisions, or pp -> ..pi../sup 0/ + X, gives form factors closely consistent with experiment. The conclusion is an epistemological comment (complementarity between stochastic and quantum domains, E.P.R. paradox, etc...).

  10. Stochastic dynamics and irreversibility

    CERN Document Server

    Tomé, Tânia

    2015-01-01

    This textbook presents an exposition of stochastic dynamics and irreversibility. It comprises the principles of probability theory and the stochastic dynamics in continuous spaces, described by Langevin and Fokker-Planck equations, and in discrete spaces, described by Markov chains and master equations. Special concern is given to the study of irreversibility, both in systems that evolve to equilibrium and in nonequilibrium stationary states. Attention is also given to the study of models displaying phase transitions and critical phenomema both in thermodynamic equilibrium and out of equilibrium. These models include the linear Glauber model, the Glauber-Ising model, lattice models with absorbing states such as the contact process and those used in population dynamic and spreading of epidemic, probabilistic cellular automata, reaction-diffusion processes, random sequential adsorption and dynamic percolation. A stochastic approach to chemical reaction is also presented.The textbook is intended for students of ...

  11. Stochastic optimization methods

    CERN Document Server

    Marti, Kurt

    2005-01-01

    Optimization problems arising in practice involve random parameters. For the computation of robust optimal solutions, i.e., optimal solutions being insensitive with respect to random parameter variations, deterministic substitute problems are needed. Based on the distribution of the random data, and using decision theoretical concepts, optimization problems under stochastic uncertainty are converted into deterministic substitute problems. Due to the occurring probabilities and expectations, approximative solution techniques must be applied. Deterministic and stochastic approximation methods and their analytical properties are provided: Taylor expansion, regression and response surface methods, probability inequalities, First Order Reliability Methods, convex approximation/deterministic descent directions/efficient points, stochastic approximation methods, differentiation of probability and mean value functions. Convergence results of the resulting iterative solution procedures are given.

  12. Stochastic quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumpf, H.

    1987-01-01

    We begin with a naive application of the Parisi-Wu scheme to linearized gravity. This will lead into trouble as one peculiarity of the full theory, the indefiniteness of the Euclidean action, shows up already at this level. After discussing some proposals to overcome this problem, Minkowski space stochastic quantization will be introduced. This will still not result in an acceptable quantum theory of linearized gravity, as the Feynman propagator turns out to be non-causal. This defect will be remedied only after a careful analysis of general covariance in stochastic quantization has been performed. The analysis requires the notion of a metric on the manifold of metrics, and a natural candidate for this is singled out. With this a consistent stochastic quantization of Einstein gravity becomes possible. It is even possible, at least perturbatively, to return to the Euclidean regime. 25 refs. (Author)

  13. Separable quadratic stochastic operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozikov, U.A.; Nazir, S.

    2009-04-01

    We consider quadratic stochastic operators, which are separable as a product of two linear operators. Depending on properties of these linear operators we classify the set of the separable quadratic stochastic operators: first class of constant operators, second class of linear and third class of nonlinear (separable) quadratic stochastic operators. Since the properties of operators from the first and second classes are well known, we mainly study the properties of the operators of the third class. We describe some Lyapunov functions of the operators and apply them to study ω-limit sets of the trajectories generated by the operators. We also compare our results with known results of the theory of quadratic operators and give some open problems. (author)

  14. Stochastic cooling at Fermilab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marriner, J.

    1986-08-01

    The topics discussed are the stochastic cooling systems in use at Fermilab and some of the techniques that have been employed to meet the particular requirements of the anti-proton source. Stochastic cooling at Fermilab became of paramount importance about 5 years ago when the anti-proton source group at Fermilab abandoned the electron cooling ring in favor of a high flux anti-proton source which relied solely on stochastic cooling to achieve the phase space densities necessary for colliding proton and anti-proton beams. The Fermilab systems have constituted a substantial advance in the techniques of cooling including: large pickup arrays operating at microwave frequencies, extensive use of cryogenic techniques to reduce thermal noise, super-conducting notch filters, and the development of tools for controlling and for accurately phasing the system

  15. Stochastic Feedforward Control Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halyo, Nesim

    1990-01-01

    Class of commanded trajectories modeled as stochastic process. Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) research and development program conducted by NASA Langley Research Center aimed at developing capabilities for increases in capacities of airports, safe and accurate flight in adverse weather conditions including shear, winds, avoidance of wake vortexes, and reduced consumption of fuel. Advances in techniques for design of modern controls and increased capabilities of digital flight computers coupled with accurate guidance information from Microwave Landing System (MLS). Stochastic feedforward control technique developed within context of ATOPS program.

  16. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  17. Stochastic Switching Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Maria

    This thesis treats stochastic systems with switching dynamics. Models with these characteristics are studied from several perspectives. Initially in a simple framework given in the form of stochastic differential equations and, later, in an extended form which fits into the framework of sliding...... mode control. It is investigated how to understand and interpret solutions to models of switched systems, which are exposed to discontinuous dynamics and uncertainties (primarily) in the form of white noise. The goal is to gain knowledge about the performance of the system by interpreting the solution...

  18. Stochastic dynamics and control

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Jian-Qiao; Zaslavsky, George

    2006-01-01

    This book is a result of many years of author's research and teaching on random vibration and control. It was used as lecture notes for a graduate course. It provides a systematic review of theory of probability, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. The feedback control is also reviewed in the book. Random vibration analyses of SDOF, MDOF and continuous structural systems are presented in a pedagogical order. The application of the random vibration theory to reliability and fatigue analysis is also discussed. Recent research results on fatigue analysis of non-Gaussian stress proc

  19. Stochastic singular optics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Roux, FS

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Roux Presented at the International Conference on Correlation Optics 2013 Chernivtsi, Ukraine 18-20 September 2013 CSIR National Laser Centre, Pretoria, South Africa – p. 1/24 Contents ⊲ Defining Stochastic Singular Optics (SSO) ⊲ Tools of Stochastic... of vortices: topological charge ±1 (higher order are unstable). Positive and negative vortex densities np(x, y, z) and nn(x, y, z) ⊲ Vortex density: V = np + nn ⊲ Topological charge density: T = np − nn – p. 4/24 Subfields of SSO ⊲ Homogeneous, normally...

  20. Foundations of stochastic analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, M M; Lukacs, E

    1981-01-01

    Foundations of Stochastic Analysis deals with the foundations of the theory of Kolmogorov and Bochner and its impact on the growth of stochastic analysis. Topics covered range from conditional expectations and probabilities to projective and direct limits, as well as martingales and likelihood ratios. Abstract martingales and their applications are also discussed. Comprised of five chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic Kolmogorov-Bochner theorem, followed by a discussion on conditional expectations and probabilities containing several characterizations of operators and mea

  1. Markov stochasticity coordinates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

    2017-01-15

    Markov dynamics constitute one of the most fundamental models of random motion between the states of a system of interest. Markov dynamics have diverse applications in many fields of science and engineering, and are particularly applicable in the context of random motion in networks. In this paper we present a two-dimensional gauging method of the randomness of Markov dynamics. The method–termed Markov Stochasticity Coordinates–is established, discussed, and exemplified. Also, the method is tweaked to quantify the stochasticity of the first-passage-times of Markov dynamics, and the socioeconomic equality and mobility in human societies.

  2. Stochastic models, estimation, and control

    CERN Document Server

    Maybeck, Peter S

    1982-01-01

    This volume builds upon the foundations set in Volumes 1 and 2. Chapter 13 introduces the basic concepts of stochastic control and dynamic programming as the fundamental means of synthesizing optimal stochastic control laws.

  3. Stochastic analysis of a novel nonautonomous periodic SIRI epidemic system with random disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weiwei; Meng, Xinzhu

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a new stochastic nonautonomous SIRI epidemic model is formulated. Given that the incidence rates of diseases may change with the environment, we propose a novel type of transmission function. The main aim of this paper is to obtain the thresholds of the stochastic SIRI epidemic model. To this end, we investigate the dynamics of the stochastic system and establish the conditions for extinction and persistence in mean of the disease by constructing some suitable Lyapunov functions and using stochastic analysis technique. Furthermore, we show that the stochastic system has at least one nontrivial positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate our results.

  4. Stochastic quantisation: theme and variation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klauder, J.R.; Kyoto Univ.

    1987-01-01

    The paper on stochastic quantisation is a contribution to the book commemorating the sixtieth birthday of E.S. Fradkin. Stochastic quantisation reformulates Euclidean quantum field theory in the language of Langevin equations. The generalised free field is discussed from the viewpoint of stochastic quantisation. An artificial family of highly singular model theories wherein the space-time derivatives are dropped altogether is also examined. Finally a modified form of stochastic quantisation is considered. (U.K.)

  5. Female streetwalkers' perspectives on migration and HIV/STI risks in a changing economic and social environment: a qualitative study in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Z Jennifer; Hu, Dier; Chang, Ruth; Zaccaro, Heather; Iguchi, Martin; Zheng, Huang; He, Na

    2015-01-01

    China's 30-year economic boom has created a unique social and economic market for commercial sex, as well as for a workforce of migrant women from rural China. This qualitative study explores the impact of the rapidly changing social and economic environment on migration patterns, knowledge of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), STI risk behaviours and health beliefs among female streetwalkers in Shanghai. Qualitative data were collected in 2010 through semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 streetwalkers to characterise their migration passages, sexual health and behaviours, and peer networks. Many streetwalkers reported histories of childhood impoverishment, of family or partner violence or trauma, of migration consistent with the timeline and routes of economic development and of a scarcity in health, social or economic support. Their knowledge of the prevention and treatment of HIV and STIs was limited. They had little bargaining power on condom use and the majority resorted to vaginal douching and self-management with antibiotics as preventative measures. The study identifies streetwalkers' perspectives on the changing environment, their options and actions and, finally, HIV/STI risks that were unique to this hidden population.

  6. Stochastic quantization of Proca field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, S.C.

    1981-03-01

    We discuss the complications that arise in the application of Nelson's stochastic quantization scheme to classical Proca field. One consistent way to obtain spin-one massive stochastic field is given. It is found that the result of Guerra et al on the connection between ground state stochastic field and the corresponding Euclidean-Markov field extends to the spin-one case. (author)

  7. Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    AFRL-RW-EG-TR-2015-108 Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos Douglas V. Nance Air Force Research...COVERED (From - To) 20-04-2015 – 07-08-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Stochastic Estimation via Polynomial Chaos ...This expository report discusses fundamental aspects of the polynomial chaos method for representing the properties of second order stochastic

  8. Cooperative decision making in a stochastic environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suijs, J.P.M.

    1998-01-01

    Cooperative game theory is a mathematical tool to analyze situations involving several individuals who can obtain certain benefits by cooperating. The main questions this theory addresses are who will cooperate with whom and how will the corresponding benefits be divided. Most results of cooperative

  9. Locating repairshops in a stochastic environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ommeren, Jan C.W.; Bumb, A.F.; Sleptchenko, A.V.; Sleptchenko, Andrei

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we consider a repair shop location problem with uncertainties in demand. New local repair shops have to be opened at a number of locations. At these local repair shops, customers arrive with broken, but repairable, items. Customers go to the nearest open repair shop. Since they want to

  10. Factors influencing lysis time stochasticity in bacteriophage λ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennehy John J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite identical genotypes and seemingly uniform environments, stochastic gene expression and other dynamic intracellular processes can produce considerable phenotypic diversity within clonal microbes. One trait that provides a good model to explore the molecular basis of stochastic variation is the timing of host lysis by bacteriophage (phage. Results Individual lysis events of thermally-inducible λ lysogens were observed using a temperature-controlled perfusion chamber mounted on an inverted microscope. Both mean lysis time (MLT and its associated standard deviation (SD were estimated. Using the SD as a measure of lysis time stochasticity, we showed that lysogenic cells in controlled environments varied widely in lysis times, and that the level of lysis time stochasticity depended on allelic variation in the holin sequence, late promoter (pR' activity, and host growth rate. In general, the MLT was positively correlated with the SD. Both lower pR' activities and lower host growth rates resulted in larger SDs. Results from premature lysis, induced by adding KCN at different time points after lysogen induction, showed a negative correlation between the timing of KCN addition and lysis time stochasticity. Conclusions Taken together with results published by others, we conclude that a large fraction of λ lysis time stochasticity is the result of random events following the expression and diffusion of the holin protein. Consequently, factors influencing the timing of reaching critical holin concentrations in the cell membrane, such as holin production rate, strongly influence the mean lysis time and the lysis time stochasticity.

  11. Elementary stochastic cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tollestrup, A.V.; Dugan, G

    1983-12-01

    Major headings in this review include: proton sources; antiproton production; antiproton sources and Liouville, the role of the Debuncher; transverse stochastic cooling, time domain; the accumulator; frequency domain; pickups and kickers; Fokker-Planck equation; calculation of constants in the Fokker-Planck equation; and beam feedback. (GHT)

  12. Affine stochastic mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schrager, D.F.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new model for stochastic mortality. The model is based on the literature on affine term structure models. It satisfies three important requirements for application in practice: analytical tractibility, clear interpretation of the factors and compatibility with financial option pricing

  13. Composite stochastic processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, N.G. van

    Certain problems in physics and chemistry lead to the definition of a class of stochastic processes. Although they are not Markovian they can be treated explicitly to some extent. In particular, the probability distribution for large times can be found. It is shown to obey a master equation. This

  14. Entropy Production in Stochastics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demetris Koutsoyiannis

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available While the modern definition of entropy is genuinely probabilistic, in entropy production the classical thermodynamic definition, as in heat transfer, is typically used. Here we explore the concept of entropy production within stochastics and, particularly, two forms of entropy production in logarithmic time, unconditionally (EPLT or conditionally on the past and present having been observed (CEPLT. We study the theoretical properties of both forms, in general and in application to a broad set of stochastic processes. A main question investigated, related to model identification and fitting from data, is how to estimate the entropy production from a time series. It turns out that there is a link of the EPLT with the climacogram, and of the CEPLT with two additional tools introduced here, namely the differenced climacogram and the climacospectrum. In particular, EPLT and CEPLT are related to slopes of log-log plots of these tools, with the asymptotic slopes at the tails being most important as they justify the emergence of scaling laws of second-order characteristics of stochastic processes. As a real-world application, we use an extraordinary long time series of turbulent velocity and show how a parsimonious stochastic model can be identified and fitted using the tools developed.

  15. Stochastic modelling of turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Emil Hedevang Lohse

    previously been shown to be closely connected to the energy dissipation. The incorporation of the small scale dynamics into the spatial model opens the door to a fully fledged stochastic model of turbulence. Concerning the interaction of wind and wind turbine, a new method is proposed to extract wind turbine...

  16. Research in Stochastic Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-10-31

    Office of Scientific Research Grant AFOSR F49620 82 C 0009 Period: 1 Noveber 1981 through 31 October 1982 Title: Research in Stochastic Processes Co...STA4ATIS CAMBANIS The work briefly described here was developed in connection with problems arising from and related to the statistical comunication

  17. Stochastic Control - External Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2005-01-01

    This note is devoted to control of stochastic systems described in discrete time. We are concerned with external descriptions or transfer function model, where we have a dynamic model for the input output relation only (i.e.. no direct internal information). The methods are based on LTI systems...

  18. Stochastic nonlinear beam equations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brzezniak, Z.; Maslowski, Bohdan; Seidler, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 132, č. 1 (2005), s. 119-149 ISSN 0178-8051 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/01/1197 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : stochastic beam equation * stability Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.896, year: 2005

  19. Monte Carlo simulation of fully Markovian stochastic geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lepage, Thibaut; Delaby, Lucie; Malvagi, Fausto; Mazzolo, Alain

    2010-01-01

    The interest in resolving the equation of transport in stochastic media has continued to increase these last years. For binary stochastic media it is often assumed that the geometry is Markovian, which is never the case in usual environments. In the present paper, based on rigorous mathematical theorems, we construct fully two-dimensional Markovian stochastic geometries and we study their main properties. In particular, we determine a percolation threshold p c , equal to 0.586 ± 0.0015 for such geometries. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are performed through these geometries and the results compared to homogeneous geometries. (author)

  20. Alternative Approaches to Technical Efficiency Estimation in the Stochastic Frontier Model

    OpenAIRE

    Acquah, H. de-Graft; Onumah, E. E.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the stochastic frontier model and calculating technical efficiency of decision making units are of great importance in applied production economic works. This paper estimates technical efficiency from the stochastic frontier model using Jondrow, and Battese and Coelli approaches. In order to compare alternative methods, simulated data with sample sizes of 60 and 200 are generated from stochastic frontier model commonly applied to agricultural firms. Simulated data is employed to co...

  1. A stochastic model of hormesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yakovlev, A.Yu.; Tsodikov, A.D.; Bass, L.

    1993-01-01

    In order to describe the life-prolonging effect of some agents that are harmful at higher doses, ionizing radiations in particular, a stochastic model is developed in terms of accumulation and progression of intracellular lesions caused by the environment and by the agent itself. The processes of lesion repair, operating at the molecular and cellular level, are assumed to be responsible for this hormesis effect within the framework of the proposed model. Properties of lifetime distributions, derived for analysis of animal experiments with prolonged and acute irradiation, are given special attention. The model provides efficient means of interpreting experimental findings, as evidenced by its application to analysis of some published data on the hormetic effects of prolonged irradiation and of procaine on animal longevity. 51 refs., 2 figs., 1 tabs

  2. An inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Zhenghui; Wang, Han; Lu, Wentao; Guo, Huaicheng; Li, Wei

    2017-12-01

    Electric power system involves different fields and disciplines which addressed the economic system, energy system, and environment system. Inner uncertainty of this compound system would be an inevitable problem. Therefore, an inexact multistage fuzzy-stochastic programming (IMFSP) was developed for regional electric power system management constrained by environmental quality. A model which concluded interval-parameter programming, multistage stochastic programming, and fuzzy probability distribution was built to reflect the uncertain information and dynamic variation in the case study, and the scenarios under different credibility degrees were considered. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions were allowed to be taken dynamically in accordance with the pre-regulated policies and the uncertainties in reality. The results suggest that the methodology is applicable to handle the uncertainty of regional electric power management systems and help the decision makers to establish an effective development plan.

  3. Stochastic Evolution Equations Driven by Fractional Noises

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-28

    paper is to establish the weak convergence, in the topology of the Skorohod space, of the ν-symmetric Riemann sums for functionals of the fractional...stochastic heat equation with fractional-colored noise: existence of the solution. ALEA Lat. Am. J. Probab. Math . Stat. 4 (2008), 57–87. [8] P. Carmona, Y...Hu: Strong disorder implies strong localization for directed polymers in a random environment. ALEA Lat. Am. J. Probab. Math . Stat. 2 (2006), 217

  4. MEASURING INFLATION THROUGH STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO INDEX NUMBERS FOR PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahid Asghar

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to estimate the rate of inflation in Pakistan through stochastic approach to index numbers which provides not only point estimate but also confidence interval for the rate of inflation. There are two types of approaches to index number theory namely: the functional economic approaches and the stochastic approach. The attraction of stochastic approach is that it estimates the rate of inflation in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a major roll of screening index numbers. We have used extended stochastic approach to index numbers for measuring inflation by allowing for the systematic changes in the relative prices. We use CPI data covering the period July 2001--March 2008 for Pakistan.

  5. International Conference Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications III

    CERN Document Server

    Limnios, Nikolaos; Mishura, Yuliya; Sakhno, Lyudmyla; Shevchenko, Georgiy; Modern Stochastics and Applications

    2014-01-01

    This volume presents an extensive overview of all major modern trends in applications of probability and stochastic analysis. It will be a  great source of inspiration for designing new algorithms, modeling procedures, and experiments. Accessible to researchers, practitioners, as well as graduate and postgraduate students, this volume presents a variety of new tools, ideas, and methodologies in the fields of optimization, physics, finance, probability, hydrodynamics, reliability, decision making, mathematical finance, mathematical physics, and economics. Contributions to this Work include those of selected speakers from the international conference entitled “Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications III,”  held on September 10 –14, 2012 at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine. The conference covered the following areas of research in probability theory and its applications: stochastic analysis, stochastic processes and fields, random matrices, optimization methods in probability, st...

  6. International Conference on Modern Problems of Stochastic Analysis and Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book brings together the latest findings in the area of stochastic analysis and statistics. The individual chapters cover a wide range of topics from limit theorems, Markov processes, nonparametric methods, acturial science, population dynamics, and many others. The volume is dedicated to Valentin Konakov, head of the International Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Contributions were prepared by the participants of the international conference of the international conference “Modern problems of stochastic analysis and statistics”, held at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow from May 29 - June 2, 2016. It offers a valuable reference resource for researchers and graduate students interested in modern stochastics.

  7. International symposium on uranium production and raw materials for the nuclear fuel cycle - Supply and demand, economics, the environment and energy security. Extended synopses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The IAEA periodically organizes nical meetings and international symposia on all areas of the uranium production cycle. This publication contains 160 extended synopses related to the 2005 international symposium on 'Uranium Production and Raw Materials for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Supply and Demand, Economics, the Environment and Energy Security'. They cover all areas of natural uranium resources and production cycle including uranium supply and demand; uranium geology and deposit; uranium exploration; uranium mining and milling; waste management; and environment and regulation. Each synopsis was indexed individually.

  8. Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Bishwal, Jaya P N

    2008-01-01

    Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations and stochastic partial differential equations is the science, art and technology of modelling complex phenomena and making beautiful decisions. The subject has attracted researchers from several areas of mathematics and other related fields like economics and finance. This volume presents the estimation of the unknown parameters in the corresponding continuous models based on continuous and discrete observations and examines extensively maximum likelihood, minimum contrast and Bayesian methods. Useful because of the current availability of high frequency data is the study of refined asymptotic properties of several estimators when the observation time length is large and the observation time interval is small. Also space time white noise driven models, useful for spatial data, and more sophisticated non-Markovian and non-semimartingale models like fractional diffusions that model the long memory phenomena are examined in this volume.

  9. Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

  10. Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Gordon

    2018-01-01

    The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

  11. Operating a railway system within a challenging environment: Economic history and experiences of Zimbabwe’s national railways

    OpenAIRE

    Charles Mbohwa

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a historical background to the development of the railways in Zimbabwe and then discusses their current state. Besides being a landlocked country in Southern Africa, Zimbabwe has since 2000 been saddled with socio-economic and political challenges which have seen a decline in all economic indices, hence posing some challenges to its railways. This article discusses the challenges faced by the railways as a result of high inflation, unstable currency exchange rate, brain dr...

  12. Donatello Strangio & Giuseppe Sancetta (Eds.), Italy in a European Context: Research in Business, Economics, and the Environment

    OpenAIRE

    CUCARI, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Abstract. Contributing to support the diffusion of an European culture and sense of citizenship. This is the aim of the book “Italy in a European Context: Research in Business, Economics, and the Environment” edited by Donatella Strangio & Giuseppe Sancetta.  It is a collection of scholarly articles that cover the main issues related to role of Italy offering different perspectives ranging from economics and management, among others. It is a good read not only for students and scholars wi...

  13. ANALYSIS OF PROVIDING A FAIR TAX TREATMENT IN THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE NEW TAX SPECIFIC TO THE ACTIVITIES IN TOURISM SINCE 2017

    OpenAIRE

    NICOLAE ECOBICI; GABRIELA BUŞAN

    2016-01-01

    The work is in the applied research line and aims to analyze the legal provisions on specific tax regarding the measure in which this tax would ensure an equal tax treatment in the economic environment that would comply with the principle of proportionality. The specific tax will take effect from January 1st, 2017 in Romania for the activities in tourism and hotels field, restaurants, bars and public food services. The research methods are based on analysis and comparison. The pap...

  14. Stochastic persistence and stationary distribution in an SIS epidemic model with media coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Wenjuan; Cai, Yongli; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2018-02-01

    This paper aims to study an SIS epidemic model with media coverage from a general deterministic model to a stochastic differential equation with environment fluctuation. Mathematically, we use the Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number R0s can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. Epidemiologically, we show that environment fluctuation can inhibit the occurrence of the disease, namely, in the case of disease persistence for the deterministic model, the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. So to a great extent the stochastic perturbation under media coverage affects the outbreak of the disease.

  15. A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Output Level and Growth in Poland and Western Economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osiewalski, J.; Koop, G.; Steel, M.F.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier methods to measure the productivity gap between Poland and Western countries that existed before the beginning of the main Polish economic reform. Using data for 20 Western economies, Poland and Yugoslavia (1980-1990) we estimate a translog stochastic

  16. Uncertainties must be expected. Stochastic methods support power plant control; Mit Unsicherheiten ist zu rechnen. Stochastische Methoden unterstuetzen Kraftwerkssteuerung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syben, Olaf; Dehery, Francois-Regis [ProCom GmbH, Aachen (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainties must be considered for successful portfolio management in the energy markets. This is not only a structural aspect of the increasingly complex interdependences between raw materials, technical assets and economic considerations but also covers the distortion of degrees of freedom in time, which require ever faster decision processes. Stochastic methods make it possible to judge uncertainties even in complex planning problems. Integration of the mathematical methods in an efficient IT environment ensures that a verifiable decision basis is available at any time. (orig./AKB)

  17. Stochastic calculus and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cohen, Samuel N

    2015-01-01

    Completely revised and greatly expanded, the new edition of this text takes readers who have been exposed to only basic courses in analysis through the modern general theory of random processes and stochastic integrals as used by systems theorists, electronic engineers and, more recently, those working in quantitative and mathematical finance. Building upon the original release of this title, this text will be of great interest to research mathematicians and graduate students working in those fields, as well as quants in the finance industry. New features of this edition include: End of chapter exercises; New chapters on basic measure theory and Backward SDEs; Reworked proofs, examples and explanatory material; Increased focus on motivating the mathematics; Extensive topical index. "Such a self-contained and complete exposition of stochastic calculus and applications fills an existing gap in the literature. The book can be recommended for first-year graduate studies. It will be useful for all who intend to wo...

  18. Some illustrations of stochasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laslett, L.J.

    1977-01-01

    A complex, and apparently stochastic, character frequently can be seen to occur in the solutions to simple Hamiltonian problems. Such behavior is of interest, and potentially of importance, to designers of particle accelerators--as well as to workers in other fields of physics and related disciplines. Even a slow development of disorder in the motion of particles in a circular accelerator or storage ring could be troublesome, because a practical design requires the beam particles to remain confined in an orderly manner within a narrow beam tube for literally tens of billions of revolutions. The material presented is primarily the result of computer calculations made to investigate the occurrence of ''stochasticity,'' and is organized in a manner similar to that adopted for presentation at a 1974 accelerator conference

  19. Stochastic ice stream dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantelli, Elisa; Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-08-09

    Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution.

  20. Fractional Stochastic Field Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkonen, Juha

    2018-02-01

    Models describing evolution of physical, chemical, biological, social and financial processes are often formulated as differential equations with the understanding that they are large-scale equations for averages of quantities describing intrinsically random processes. Explicit account of randomness may lead to significant changes in the asymptotic behaviour (anomalous scaling) in such models especially in low spatial dimensions, which in many cases may be captured with the use of the renormalization group. Anomalous scaling and memory effects may also be introduced with the use of fractional derivatives and fractional noise. Construction of renormalized stochastic field theory with fractional derivatives and fractional noise in the underlying stochastic differential equations and master equations and the interplay between fluctuation-induced and built-in anomalous scaling behaviour is reviewed and discussed.

  1. Stochastic porous media equations

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Viorel; Röckner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Focusing on stochastic porous media equations, this book places an emphasis on existence theorems, asymptotic behavior and ergodic properties of the associated transition semigroup. Stochastic perturbations of the porous media equation have reviously been considered by physicists, but rigorous mathematical existence results have only recently been found. The porous media equation models a number of different physical phenomena, including the flow of an ideal gas and the diffusion of a compressible fluid through porous media, and also thermal propagation in plasma and plasma radiation. Another important application is to a model of the standard self-organized criticality process, called the "sand-pile model" or the "Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld model". The book will be of interest to PhD students and researchers in mathematics, physics and biology.

  2. Stochastic stacking without filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, R.P.; Marriner, J.

    1982-12-01

    The rate of accumulation of antiprotons is a critical factor in the design of p anti p colliders. A design of a system to accumulate higher anti p fluxes is presented here which is an alternative to the schemes used at the CERN AA and in the Fermilab Tevatron I design. Contrary to these stacking schemes, which use a system of notch filters to protect the dense core of antiprotons from the high power of the stack tail stochastic cooling, an eddy current shutter is used to protect the core in the region of the stack tail cooling kicker. Without filters one can have larger cooling bandwidths, better mixing for stochastic cooling, and easier operational criteria for the power amplifiers. In the case considered here a flux of 1.4 x 10 8 per sec is achieved with a 4 to 8 GHz bandwidth

  3. Multistage stochastic optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Pflug, Georg Ch

    2014-01-01

    Multistage stochastic optimization problems appear in many ways in finance, insurance, energy production and trading, logistics and transportation, among other areas. They describe decision situations under uncertainty and with a longer planning horizon. This book contains a comprehensive treatment of today’s state of the art in multistage stochastic optimization.  It covers the mathematical backgrounds of approximation theory as well as numerous practical algorithms and examples for the generation and handling of scenario trees. A special emphasis is put on estimation and bounding of the modeling error using novel distance concepts, on time consistency and the role of model ambiguity in the decision process. An extensive treatment of examples from electricity production, asset liability management and inventory control concludes the book

  4. Dynamics of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Klyatskin, Valery I

    2005-01-01

    Fluctuating parameters appear in a variety of physical systems and phenomena. They typically come either as random forces/sources, or advecting velocities, or media (material) parameters, like refraction index, conductivity, diffusivity, etc. The well known example of Brownian particle suspended in fluid and subjected to random molecular bombardment laid the foundation for modern stochastic calculus and statistical physics. Other important examples include turbulent transport and diffusion of particle-tracers (pollutants), or continuous densities (''''oil slicks''''), wave propagation and scattering in randomly inhomogeneous media, for instance light or sound propagating in the turbulent atmosphere.Such models naturally render to statistical description, where the input parameters and solutions are expressed by random processes and fields.The fundamental problem of stochastic dynamics is to identify the essential characteristics of system (its state and evolution), and relate those to the input parameters of ...

  5. Identifiability in stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    1992-01-01

    The problem of identifiability is basic to all statistical methods and data analysis, occurring in such diverse areas as Reliability Theory, Survival Analysis, and Econometrics, where stochastic modeling is widely used. Mathematics dealing with identifiability per se is closely related to the so-called branch of ""characterization problems"" in Probability Theory. This book brings together relevant material on identifiability as it occurs in these diverse fields.

  6. Stochastic split determinant algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horvatha, Ivan

    2000-01-01

    I propose a large class of stochastic Markov processes associated with probability distributions analogous to that of lattice gauge theory with dynamical fermions. The construction incorporates the idea of approximate spectral split of the determinant through local loop action, and the idea of treating the infrared part of the split through explicit diagonalizations. I suggest that exact algorithms of practical relevance might be based on Markov processes so constructed

  7. Vehicle routing with stochastic time-dependent travel times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecluyse, C.; Woensel, van T.; Peremans, H.

    2009-01-01

    Assigning and scheduling vehicle routes in a stochastic time-dependent environment is a crucial management problem. The assumption that in a real-life environment everything goes according to an a priori determined static schedule is unrealistic. Our methodology builds on earlier work in which the

  8. Vehicle routing with stochastic time-dependent travel times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lecluyse, C.; Woensel, van T.; Peremans, H.

    2007-01-01

    Assigning and scheduling vehicle routes in a stochastic time-dependent environment is a crucial management problem. The assumption that in a real-life environment everything goes according to an a priori determined static schedule is unrealistic. Our methodology builds on earlier work in which the

  9. Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

    KAUST Repository

    Naous, Rawan; Al-Shedivat, Maruan; Salama, Khaled N.

    2015-01-01

    Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

  10. Stochasticity Modeling in Memristors

    KAUST Repository

    Naous, Rawan

    2015-10-26

    Diverse models have been proposed over the past years to explain the exhibiting behavior of memristors, the fourth fundamental circuit element. The models varied in complexity ranging from a description of physical mechanisms to a more generalized mathematical modeling. Nonetheless, stochasticity, a widespread observed phenomenon, has been immensely overlooked from the modeling perspective. This inherent variability within the operation of the memristor is a vital feature for the integration of this nonlinear device into the stochastic electronics realm of study. In this paper, experimentally observed innate stochasticity is modeled in a circuit compatible format. The model proposed is generic and could be incorporated into variants of threshold-based memristor models in which apparent variations in the output hysteresis convey the switching threshold shift. Further application as a noise injection alternative paves the way for novel approaches in the fields of neuromorphic engineering circuits design. On the other hand, extra caution needs to be paid to variability intolerant digital designs based on non-deterministic memristor logic.

  11. Stochastic quantization of instantons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandati, Y.; Berard, A.; Grange, P.

    1996-01-01

    The method of Parisi and Wu to quantize classical fields is applied to instanton solutions var-phi I of euclidian non-linear theory in one dimension. The solution var-phi var-epsilon of the corresponding Langevin equation is built through a singular perturbative expansion in var-epsilon=h 1/2 in the frame of the center of the mass of the instanton, where the difference var-phi var-epsilon -var-phi I carries only fluctuations of the instanton form. The relevance of the method is shown for the stochastic K dV equation with uniform noise in space: the exact solution usually obtained by the inverse scattering method is retrieved easily by the singular expansion. A general diagrammatic representation of the solution is then established which makes a thorough use of regrouping properties of stochastic diagrams derived in scalar field theory. Averaging over the noise and in the limit of infinite stochastic time, the authors obtain explicit expressions for the first two orders in var-epsilon of the pertrubed instanton of its Green function. Specializing to the Sine-Gordon and var-phi 4 models, the first anaharmonic correction is obtained analytically. The calculation is carried to second order for the var-phi 4 model, showing good convergence. 21 refs., 5 fig

  12. Stochastic and non-stochastic effects - a conceptual analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karhausen, L.R.

    1980-01-01

    The attempt to divide radiation effects into stochastic and non-stochastic effects is discussed. It is argued that radiation or toxicological effects are contingently related to radiation or chemical exposure. Biological effects in general can be described by general laws but these laws never represent a necessary connection. Actually stochastic effects express contingent, or empirical, connections while non-stochastic effects represent semantic and non-factual connections. These two expressions stem from two different levels of discourse. The consequence of this analysis for radiation biology and radiation protection is discussed. (author)

  13. Detecting change in stochastic sound sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Skerritt-Davis

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Our ability to parse our acoustic environment relies on the brain's capacity to extract statistical regularities from surrounding sounds. Previous work in regularity extraction has predominantly focused on the brain's sensitivity to predictable patterns in sound sequences. However, natural sound environments are rarely completely predictable, often containing some level of randomness, yet the brain is able to effectively interpret its surroundings by extracting useful information from stochastic sounds. It has been previously shown that the brain is sensitive to the marginal lower-order statistics of sound sequences (i.e., mean and variance. In this work, we investigate the brain's sensitivity to higher-order statistics describing temporal dependencies between sound events through a series of change detection experiments, where listeners are asked to detect changes in randomness in the pitch of tone sequences. Behavioral data indicate listeners collect statistical estimates to process incoming sounds, and a perceptual model based on Bayesian inference shows a capacity in the brain to track higher-order statistics. Further analysis of individual subjects' behavior indicates an important role of perceptual constraints in listeners' ability to track these sensory statistics with high fidelity. In addition, the inference model facilitates analysis of neural electroencephalography (EEG responses, anchoring the analysis relative to the statistics of each stochastic stimulus. This reveals both a deviance response and a change-related disruption in phase of the stimulus-locked response that follow the higher-order statistics. These results shed light on the brain's ability to process stochastic sound sequences.

  14. Symbolic Computing in Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamiński Marcin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim is to present recent developments in applications of symbolic computing in probabilistic and stochastic analysis, and this is done using the example of the well-known MAPLE system. The key theoretical methods discussed are (i analytical derivations, (ii the classical Monte-Carlo simulation approach, (iii the stochastic perturbation technique, as well as (iv some semi-analytical approaches. It is demonstrated in particular how to engage the basic symbolic tools implemented in any system to derive the basic equations for the stochastic perturbation technique and how to make an efficient implementation of the semi-analytical methods using an automatic differentiation and integration provided by the computer algebra program itself. The second important illustration is probabilistic extension of the finite element and finite difference methods coded in MAPLE, showing how to solve boundary value problems with random parameters in the environment of symbolic computing. The response function method belongs to the third group, where interference of classical deterministic software with the non-linear fitting numerical techniques available in various symbolic environments is displayed. We recover in this context the probabilistic structural response in engineering systems and show how to solve partial differential equations including Gaussian randomness in their coefficients.

  15. Impacts of terrain attributes on economics and the environment: Costs of reducing potential nitrogen pollution in wheat production

    Science.gov (United States)

    The economic cost of achieving desired environmental outcomes from uniform and variable rate fertilizer application technologies depends both on market forces and agronomic properties. Using spatial econometric methods, we analyze the impact of nitrogen fertilizer supply by terrain attribute on the...

  16. Environment, energy and economic development in Amazon; Desenvolvimento economico-energetico e o meio ambiente na Amazonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinguelli Rosa, Luiz; Alveal, Carmem [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia; Reis, Hugo Regis do [Companhia Nacional de Defesa e pelo Desenvolvimento da Amazonia (CNDDA), Manaus, AM (Brazil); Mesquita, Alvaro Augusto [ELETRONORTE, Belem, PA (Brazil)

    1991-12-31

    This paper shows the aspects related to the sustainable development of the brazilian Amazon region. The aspects of human-forest relations, electric power generation, land ownership, brazilian indians populations, all of these related to the social and economical development for the Amazon region

  17. Can individual conditions during childhood mediate or moderate the long-term cognitive effects of poor economic environments at birth?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fritze, T.; Doblhammer, G.; van den Berg, G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Recent analyses revealed that the business cycle at the time of birth influences cognitive functioning at older ages, and that those individuals born during economic boom periods on average display better cognitive functioning later in life. The current study examines the impact of childhood

  18. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  19. Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henshall, G.A.

    1991-10-01

    Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed

  20. Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Purkey, David R

    2013-10-15

    Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute

  1. A retrodictive stochastic simulation algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaughan, T.G.; Drummond, P.D.; Drummond, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we describe a simple method for inferring the initial states of systems evolving stochastically according to master equations, given knowledge of the final states. This is achieved through the use of a retrodictive stochastic simulation algorithm which complements the usual predictive stochastic simulation approach. We demonstrate the utility of this new algorithm by applying it to example problems, including the derivation of likely ancestral states of a gene sequence given a Markovian model of genetic mutation.

  2. Stochastic processes and quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klauder, J.R.

    1975-01-01

    The author analyses a variety of stochastic processes, namely real time diffusion phenomena, which are analogues of imaginary time quantum theory and convariant imaginary time quantum field theory. He elaborates some standard properties involving probability measures and stochastic variables and considers a simple class of examples. Finally he develops the fact that certain stochastic theories actually exhibit divergences that simulate those of covariant quantum field theory and presents examples of both renormaizable and unrenormalizable behavior. (V.J.C.)

  3. Food shopping transition: socio-economic characteristics and motivations associated with use of supermarkets in a North African urban environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessier, Sophie; Traissac, Pierre; Bricas, Nicolas; Maire, Bernard; Eymard-Duvernay, Sabrina; El Ati, Jalila; Delpeuch, Francis

    2010-09-01

    In the context of the nutrition transition and associated changes in the food retail sector, to examine the socio-economic characteristics and motivations of shoppers using different retail formats (large supermarkets (LSM), medium-sized supermarkets (MSM) or traditional outlets) in Tunisia. Cross-sectional survey (2006). Socio-economic status, type of food retailer and motivations data were collected during house visits. Associations between socio-economic factors and type of retailer were assessed by multinomial regression; correspondence analysis was used to analyse declared motivations. Peri-urban area around Tunis, Tunisia, North Africa. Clustered random sample of 724 households. One-third of the households used LSM, two-thirds used either type of supermarket, but less than 5 % used supermarkets only. Those who shopped for food at supermarkets were of higher socio-economic status; those who used LSM were much wealthier, more often had a steady income or owned a credit card, while MSM users were more urban and had a higher level of education. Most households still frequently used traditional outlets, mostly their neighbourhood grocer. Reasons given for shopping at the different retailers were most markedly leisure for LSM, while for the neighbourhood grocer the reasons were fidelity, proximity and availability of credit (the latter even more for lower-income customers). The results pertain to the transition in food shopping practices in a south Mediterranean country; they should be considered in the context of growing inequalities in health linked to the nutritional transition, as they differentiate use and motivations for the choice of supermarkets v. traditional food retailers according to socio-economic status.

  4. Stochastic models of intracellular transport

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2013-01-09

    The interior of a living cell is a crowded, heterogenuous, fluctuating environment. Hence, a major challenge in modeling intracellular transport is to analyze stochastic processes within complex environments. Broadly speaking, there are two basic mechanisms for intracellular transport: passive diffusion and motor-driven active transport. Diffusive transport can be formulated in terms of the motion of an overdamped Brownian particle. On the other hand, active transport requires chemical energy, usually in the form of adenosine triphosphate hydrolysis, and can be direction specific, allowing biomolecules to be transported long distances; this is particularly important in neurons due to their complex geometry. In this review a wide range of analytical methods and models of intracellular transport is presented. In the case of diffusive transport, narrow escape problems, diffusion to a small target, confined and single-file diffusion, homogenization theory, and fractional diffusion are considered. In the case of active transport, Brownian ratchets, random walk models, exclusion processes, random intermittent search processes, quasi-steady-state reduction methods, and mean-field approximations are considered. Applications include receptor trafficking, axonal transport, membrane diffusion, nuclear transport, protein-DNA interactions, virus trafficking, and the self-organization of subcellular structures. © 2013 American Physical Society.

  5. Stochastic Simulation Using @ Risk for Dairy Business Investment Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    A dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business was developed to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm system within a partial budgeting fram...

  6. Stochastic simulation using @Risk for dairy business investment decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bewley, J.D.; Boehlje, M.D.; Gray, A.W.; Hogeveen, H.; Kenyon, S.J.; Eicher, S.D.; Schutz, M.M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic, stochastic, mechanistic simulation model of a dairy business to evaluate the cost and benefit streams coinciding with technology investments. The model was constructed to embody the biological and economical complexities of a dairy farm

  7. Do neighborhood economic characteristics, racial composition, and residential stability predict perceptions of stress associated with the physical and social environment? Findings from a multilevel analysis in Detroit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Amy J; Zenk, Shannon N; Israel, Barbara A; Mentz, Graciela; Stokes, Carmen; Galea, Sandro

    2008-09-01

    As the body of evidence linking disparities in the health of urban residents to disparate social, economic and environmental contexts grows, efforts to delineate the pathways through which broader social and economic inequalities influence health have burgeoned. One hypothesized pathway connects economic and racial and ethnic inequalities to differentials in stress associated with social and physical environments, with subsequent implications for health. Drawing on data from Detroit, Michigan, we examined contributions of neighborhood-level characteristics (e.g., poverty rate, racial and ethnic composition, residential stability) and individual-level characteristics (e.g., age, gender) to perceived social and physical environmental stress. We found that neighborhood percent African American was positively associated with perceptions of both social and physical environmental stress; neighborhood percent poverty and percent Latino were positively associated with perceived physical environmental stress; and neighborhood residential stability was negatively associated with perceived social environmental stress. At the individual level, whites perceived higher levels of both social and physical environmental stress compared to African American residents of the same block groups, after accounting for other variables included in the models. Our findings suggest the importance of understanding and addressing contributions of neighborhood structural characteristics to perceptions of neighborhood stress. The consistency of the finding that neighborhood racial composition and individual-level race influence perceptions of both social and physical environments suggests the continuing importance of understanding the role played by structural conditions and by personal and collective histories that vary systematically by race and ethnicity within the United States.

  8. Stochastic Analysis with Financial Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kohatsu-Higa, Arturo; Sheu, Shuenn-Jyi

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic analysis has a variety of applications to biological systems as well as physical and engineering problems, and its applications to finance and insurance have bloomed exponentially in recent times. The goal of this book is to present a broad overview of the range of applications of stochastic analysis and some of its recent theoretical developments. This includes numerical simulation, error analysis, parameter estimation, as well as control and robustness properties for stochastic equations. This book also covers the areas of backward stochastic differential equations via the (non-li

  9. Economic viability of Stratified Medicine concepts: An investor perspective on drivers and conditions that favour using Stratified Medicine approaches in a cost-contained healthcare environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fugel, Hans-Joerg; Nuijten, Mark; Postma, Maarten

    2016-12-25

    Stratified Medicine (SM) is becoming a natural result of advances in biomedical science and a promising path for the innovation-based biopharmaceutical industry to create new investment opportunities. While the use of biomarkers to improve R&D efficiency and productivity is very much acknowledged by industry, much work remains to be done to understand the drivers and conditions that favour using a stratified approach to create economically viable products and to justify the investment in SM interventions as a stratification option. In this paper we apply a decision analytical methodology to address the economic attractiveness of different SM development options in a cost-contained healthcare environment. For this purpose, a hypothetical business case in the oncology market has been developed considering four feasible development scenarios. The article outlines the effects of development time and time to peak sales as key economic value drivers influencing profitability of SM interventions under specific conditions. If regulatory and reimbursement challenges can be solved, decreasing development time and enhancing early market penetration would most directly improve the economic attractiveness of SM interventions. Appropriate tailoring of highly differentiated patient subgroups is the prerequisite to leverage potential efficiency gains in the R&D process. Also, offering a better targeted and hence ultimately more cost-effective therapy at reimbursable prices will facilitate time to market access and allow increasing market share gains within the targeted populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The stochastic spectator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Byrnes, Christian T.; Torrado, Jesús, E-mail: robert.hardwick@port.ac.uk, E-mail: vincent.vennin@port.ac.uk, E-mail: c.byrnes@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: jesus.torrado@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: david.wands@port.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

    2017-10-01

    We study the stochastic distribution of spectator fields predicted in different slow-roll inflation backgrounds. Spectator fields have a negligible energy density during inflation but may play an important dynamical role later, even giving rise to primordial density perturbations within our observational horizon today. During de-Sitter expansion there is an equilibrium solution for the spectator field which is often used to estimate the stochastic distribution during slow-roll inflation. However slow roll only requires that the Hubble rate varies slowly compared to the Hubble time, while the time taken for the stochastic distribution to evolve to the de-Sitter equilibrium solution can be much longer than a Hubble time. We study both chaotic (monomial) and plateau inflaton potentials, with quadratic, quartic and axionic spectator fields. We give an adiabaticity condition for the spectator field distribution to relax to the de-Sitter equilibrium, and find that the de-Sitter approximation is never a reliable estimate for the typical distribution at the end of inflation for a quadratic spectator during monomial inflation. The existence of an adiabatic regime at early times can erase the dependence on initial conditions of the final distribution of field values. In these cases, spectator fields acquire sub-Planckian expectation values. Otherwise spectator fields may acquire much larger field displacements than suggested by the de-Sitter equilibrium solution. We quantify the information about initial conditions that can be obtained from the final field distribution. Our results may have important consequences for the viability of spectator models for the origin of structure, such as the simplest curvaton models.

  11. The stochastic spectator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardwick, Robert J.; Vennin, Vincent; Wands, David; Byrnes, Christian T.; Torrado, Jesús

    2017-01-01

    We study the stochastic distribution of spectator fields predicted in different slow-roll inflation backgrounds. Spectator fields have a negligible energy density during inflation but may play an important dynamical role later, even giving rise to primordial density perturbations within our observational horizon today. During de-Sitter expansion there is an equilibrium solution for the spectator field which is often used to estimate the stochastic distribution during slow-roll inflation. However slow roll only requires that the Hubble rate varies slowly compared to the Hubble time, while the time taken for the stochastic distribution to evolve to the de-Sitter equilibrium solution can be much longer than a Hubble time. We study both chaotic (monomial) and plateau inflaton potentials, with quadratic, quartic and axionic spectator fields. We give an adiabaticity condition for the spectator field distribution to relax to the de-Sitter equilibrium, and find that the de-Sitter approximation is never a reliable estimate for the typical distribution at the end of inflation for a quadratic spectator during monomial inflation. The existence of an adiabatic regime at early times can erase the dependence on initial conditions of the final distribution of field values. In these cases, spectator fields acquire sub-Planckian expectation values. Otherwise spectator fields may acquire much larger field displacements than suggested by the de-Sitter equilibrium solution. We quantify the information about initial conditions that can be obtained from the final field distribution. Our results may have important consequences for the viability of spectator models for the origin of structure, such as the simplest curvaton models.

  12. The Conduciveness of the South African Economic Environment and Small, Medium and Micro Enterprise Sustainability: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan-Pierré BRUWER

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the early 1980s Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs have been regarded as the driving forces of both developing and developed economies around the world. In a South African dispensation, SMMEs are responsible for adding imperative socio-economic value to the country, particularly in terms of eradicating poverty and diminishing unemployment levels. By doing so, these business entities are believed to contribute at least 50% to the national Gross Domestic Product. Albeit the aforementioned, previous research studies report that up to 75% of South African SMMEs fail after being in existence for only 42 months. Though the latter dispensation has been blamed on many economic factors, over the years the sustainability of South African SMMEs has not improved to a great extent. In order to provide insight on the latter dispensation, this literature review paper was conducted to ultimately formulate two hypotheses for further empirical testing.

  13. Simulation of the system, Energy, Environment, and Economy. Economic model of Baden--Wuerttemberg. Part 1. [In German

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruehle, G.

    1977-04-01

    The energy consumption of industry and private households in a country is closely linked with the amount and development of the GNP and the available income. Instead of extrapolations, a dynamic econometric model was developed based on the Keynesian theory and the data of 1960 to 1974 relating to national accounts. The economic ties between Baden--Wuertemberg and the FRG are to be insured by a subsequent coupling to an FRG model. The first part of this paper basically deals with the fundamentals of the model. An introduction to the problems given by the project is followed by the theoretical economic conception and methodical bases of the model, as well as a discussion of various possible versions of behavior equations. From a set of possible versions of a behavior equation one version, possibly with an alternative for the model simulation in the second part, is selected.

  14. A reappraisal of transport aircraft needs 1985 - 2000: Perceptions of airline management in a changing economic, regulatory, and technological environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, F. A.

    1982-01-01

    Views of the executives of 24 major, national, regional, and commuter airlines concerning the effect of recent regulatory, economic, and technological changes on the roles they see for their airlines, and consequent changes in their plans for acquiring aircraft for the 1985 to 2000 period were surveyed. Differing perceptions on the economic justification for new-technology jets in the context of the carriers' present and projected financial conditions are outlined. After examining the cases for new or intermediate size jets, the study discusses turboprop powered transports, including the carriers' potential interest in an advanced technology, high-speed turboprop or prop-fan. Finally, the implications of foreign competition are examined in terms of each carrier's evaluation of the quality and financial offerings, as well as possible 'Buy American' policy predisposition.

  15. Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dividends and Stochastic Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varga, Katherine Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    We consider an optimal investment-consumption portfolio optimization model in which an investor receives stochastic dividends. As a first problem, we allow the drift of stock price to be a bounded function. Next, we consider a stochastic volatility model. In each problem, we use the dynamic programming method to derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman…

  16. Stochastic ontogenetic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; West, D.

    2012-02-01

    An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.

  17. Stochastic calculus in physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, R.F.

    1987-01-01

    The relationship of Ito-Stratonovich stochastic calculus to studies of weakly colored noise is explained. A functional calculus approach is used to obtain an effective Fokker-Planck equation for the weakly colored noise regime. In a smooth limit, this representation produces the Stratonovich version of the Ito-Stratonovich calculus for white noise. It also provides an approach to steady state behavior for strongly colored noise. Numerical simulation algorithms are explored, and a novel suggestion is made for efficient and accurate simulation of white noise equations

  18. The stochastic quality calculus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Kebin; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2014-01-01

    We introduce the Stochastic Quality Calculus in order to model and reason about distributed processes that rely on each other in order to achieve their overall behaviour. The calculus supports broadcast communication in a truly concurrent setting. Generally distributed delays are associated...... with the outputs and at the same time the inputs impose constraints on the waiting times. Consequently, the expected inputs may not be available when needed and therefore the calculus allows to express the absence of data.The communication delays are expressed by general distributions and the resulting semantics...

  19. Stochastic conditional intensity processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauwens, Luc; Hautsch, Nikolaus

    2006-01-01

    model allows for a wide range of (cross-)autocorrelation structures in multivariate point processes. The model is estimated by simulated maximum likelihood (SML) using the efficient importance sampling (EIS) technique. By modeling price intensities based on NYSE trading, we provide significant evidence......In this article, we introduce the so-called stochastic conditional intensity (SCI) model by extending Russell’s (1999) autoregressive conditional intensity (ACI) model by a latent common dynamic factor that jointly drives the individual intensity components. We show by simulations that the proposed...... for a joint latent factor and show that its inclusion allows for an improved and more parsimonious specification of the multivariate intensity process...

  20. Stochastic cooling for beginners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moehl, D.

    1984-01-01

    These two lectures have been prepared to give a simple introduction to the principles. In Part I we try to explain stochastic cooling using the time-domain picture which starts from the pulse response of the system. In Part II the discussion is repeated, looking more closely at the frequency-domain response. An attempt is made to familiarize the beginners with some of the elementary cooling equations, from the 'single particle case' up to equations which describe the evolution of the particle distribution. (orig.)

  1. ANALYSIS REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT VARIETY AMONG THE YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE NORTH-EAST REGION OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian CONDRATOV

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The specialty literature pointed out the fact that the unemployment represents a dysfunction of the labor market and among the main factors of this, a central role is represented by the economic factors. Moreover, especially for the unemployed between 15-24 years old we could identify a more increased influence. In this research we have used statistic data provided by the National Institute of Statistics of Romania among which we have selected a series of relevant variables regarding the characterization of the economic environment in the North-East Region. Their influence on the variation of the unemployment rate and the employment rate concerning the young people in the North-East Region was studied using the method of the statistics regression, undergoing a filtration using the Stepwise procedure, implemented within the informatics program SPSS.

  2. How could differences in 'control over destiny' lead to socio-economic inequalities in health? A synthesis of theories and pathways in the living environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, Margaret; Pennington, Andy; Orton, Lois; Nayak, Shilpa; Petticrew, Mark; Sowden, Amanda; White, Martin

    2016-05-01

    We conducted the first synthesis of theories on causal associations and pathways connecting degree of control in the living environment to socio-economic inequalities in health-related outcomes. We identified the main theories about how differences in 'control over destiny' could lead to socio-economic inequalities in health, and conceptualised these at three distinct explanatory levels: micro/personal; meso/community; and macro/societal. These levels are interrelated but have rarely been considered together in the disparate literatures in which they are located. This synthesis of theories provides new conceptual frameworks to contribute to the design and conduct of theory-led evaluations of actions to tackle inequalities in health. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Meeting energy demand in a developing economy without damaging the environment. A case study in Sabah, Malaysia, from technical, environmental and economic perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Siong Lee; Lim, Yun Seng [Department of Physical Science, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Tunku Abdul Rahman University (Malaysia)

    2010-08-15

    The challenges faced by the developing countries are unique in that they need to meet the increasing energy demands for their economic growths at a competitive price without damaging the environments. In this paper, a case study on the electricity demand issue in Sabah, Malaysia, is presented to investigate potential solutions in addressing this current need for a typical developing economy from the technical, economical and environmental perspectives. Sabah, one of the 13 states in Malaysia, is currently experiencing a serious power shortage, especially at the east coast. A 300 MW coal plant is proposed by the electricity utility company. However, the proposal has been rejected in the past several years due to the negative environmental impacts of the plant. In this paper, a number of alternative solutions were evaluated and proposed with respect to the viability of technologies, financial return and minimum environmental impact in terms of GHG emission. (author)

  4. Meeting energy demand in a developing economy without damaging the environment-A case study in Sabah, Malaysia, from technical, environmental and economic perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Siong Lee; Lim, Yun Seng

    2010-01-01

    The challenges faced by the developing countries are unique in that they need to meet the increasing energy demands for their economic growths at a competitive price without damaging the environments. In this paper, a case study on the electricity demand issue in Sabah, Malaysia, is presented to investigate potential solutions in addressing this current need for a typical developing economy from the technical, economical and environmental perspectives. Sabah, one of the 13 states in Malaysia, is currently experiencing a serious power shortage, especially at the east coast. A 300 MW coal plant is proposed by the electricity utility company. However, the proposal has been rejected in the past several years due to the negative environmental impacts of the plant. In this paper, a number of alternative solutions were evaluated and proposed with respect to the viability of technologies, financial return and minimum environmental impact in terms of GHG emission.

  5. Trajectory averaging for stochastic approximation MCMC algorithms

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2010-01-01

    to the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm [Liang, Liu and Carroll J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305-320]. The application of the trajectory averaging estimator to other stochastic approximationMCMC algorithms, for example, a stochastic

  6. Influence of living environment and subjective economic hardship on new-onset of low back pain for survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yabe, Yutaka; Hagiwara, Yoshihiro; Sekiguchi, Takuya; Sugawara, Yumi; Sato, Mari; Kanazawa, Kenji; Koide, Masashi; Itaya, Nobuyuki; Tsuchiya, Masahiro; Tsuji, Ichiro; Itoi, Eiji

    2017-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami devastated the northeastern part of Japan. Low back pain is thought to increase after a natural disaster and is related to various factors. The aim of this study was to examine the influencing factors of "Living environment" and "Subjective economic hardship" on new-onset of low back pain in the chronic phase for the survivors of the earthquake evaluated by a self-report questionnaire. A panel study was conducted with the Great East Japan Earthquake survivors at 2 and 3 years after the disaster. New-onset of low back pain was defined as low back pain absent at the 1st period (2 years after the earthquake) and present at the 2nd period (3 years after the earthquake). Living environment was divided into 4 categories (1. Living in the same house as before the earthquake, 2. Living in a prefabricated house, 3. Living in a new house, 4. Others: Living in an apartment, house of relatives or acquaintance). Subjective economic hardship was obtained using the following self-report question: "How do you feel about the current economic situation of your household?" The response alternatives were "Normal", "A little bit hard", "Hard", and "Very hard". A univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. 1357 survivors consented to join this study. There was no significant association between new-onset of low back pain and living environment. There was significant association between new-onset of low back pain and "A little hard" (OR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.07-2.40), "Hard" (OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.56-3.74), and "Very hard" (OR = 3.19, 95% CI = 1.84-5.53) in subjective economic hardship. Subjective economic hardship was significantly associated with new-onset of low back pain in the chronic phase for survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. 6. national energy symposium. Theme: solar, new and renewable energies: interface with the environment for sustainable socio-economic development in Ghana. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    The publication contains abstracts of the 6th National Energy Symposium. The theme of the symposium was, solar, new and renewable energies: interface with the environment for a sustainable socio-economic development in Ghana. The abstracts have been grouped under the following sections: (A) energy and environmental policy issues; (B) application of renewable energy technologies; (C) energy conservation; (D) institutional framework and capacity building and (E) those abstracts that were received late. The sequence of the abstracts does not follow any particular order.

  8. Environmental and economic estimation of negative impact of waterproofing works and materials on environment and ability to live of the person

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velichko Evgeniy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In article negative influence of waterproofing materials and works on health of people and environmental pollution is analyzed. Complex measures on maintenance of an ecological security, sanitary-and-hygienic requirements, size standards and rules both during works on a waterproof finish are resulted, and at the subsequent upkeep of buildings and premises, and also action for decrease in negative impact at carrying out of waterproofing works on a natural habitat condition, health of the workers occupied in repair-building manufacture and living. The estimation of components of the environmental and economic damage put to environment by manufacture of waterproofing works is given.

  9. 6. national energy symposium. Theme: solar, new and renewable energies: interface with the environment for sustainable socio-economic development in Ghana. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The publication contains abstracts of the 6th National Energy Symposium. The theme of the symposium was, solar, new and renewable energies: interface with the environment for a sustainable socio-economic development in Ghana. The abstracts have been grouped under the following sections: (A) energy and environmental policy issues; (B) application of renewable energy technologies; (C) energy conservation; (D) institutional framework and capacity building and (E) those abstracts that were received late. The sequence of the abstracts does not follow any particular order

  10. Stochastic Blind Motion Deblurring

    KAUST Repository

    Xiao, Lei

    2015-05-13

    Blind motion deblurring from a single image is a highly under-constrained problem with many degenerate solutions. A good approximation of the intrinsic image can therefore only be obtained with the help of prior information in the form of (often non-convex) regularization terms for both the intrinsic image and the kernel. While the best choice of image priors is still a topic of ongoing investigation, this research is made more complicated by the fact that historically each new prior requires the development of a custom optimization method. In this paper, we develop a stochastic optimization method for blind deconvolution. Since this stochastic solver does not require the explicit computation of the gradient of the objective function and uses only efficient local evaluation of the objective, new priors can be implemented and tested very quickly. We demonstrate that this framework, in combination with different image priors produces results with PSNR values that match or exceed the results obtained by much more complex state-of-the-art blind motion deblurring algorithms.

  11. Simple stochastic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilstra, Maria J; Martin, Stephen R

    2009-01-01

    Stochastic simulations may be used to describe changes with time of a reaction system in a way that explicitly accounts for the fact that molecules show a significant degree of randomness in their dynamic behavior. The stochastic approach is almost invariably used when small numbers of molecules or molecular assemblies are involved because this randomness leads to significant deviations from the predictions of the conventional deterministic (or continuous) approach to the simulation of biochemical kinetics. Advances in computational methods over the three decades that have elapsed since the publication of Daniel Gillespie's seminal paper in 1977 (J. Phys. Chem. 81, 2340-2361) have allowed researchers to produce highly sophisticated models of complex biological systems. However, these models are frequently highly specific for the particular application and their description often involves mathematical treatments inaccessible to the nonspecialist. For anyone completely new to the field to apply such techniques in their own work might seem at first sight to be a rather intimidating prospect. However, the fundamental principles underlying the approach are in essence rather simple, and the aim of this article is to provide an entry point to the field for a newcomer. It focuses mainly on these general principles, both kinetic and computational, which tend to be not particularly well covered in specialist literature, and shows that interesting information may even be obtained using very simple operations in a conventional spreadsheet.

  12. AA, stochastic precooling pickup

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN PhotoLab

    1980-01-01

    The freshly injected antiprotons were subjected to fast stochastic "precooling". In this picture of a precooling pickup, the injection orbit is to the left, the stack orbit to the far right. After several seconds of precooling with the system's kickers (in momentum and in the vertical plane), the precooled antiprotons were transferred, by means of RF, to the stack tail, where they were subjected to further stochastic cooling in momentum and in both transverse planes, until they ended up, deeply cooled, in the stack core. During precooling, a shutter near the central orbit shielded the pickups from the signals emanating from the stack-core, whilst the stack-core was shielded from the violent action of the precooling kickers by a shutter on these. All shutters were opened briefly during transfer of the precooled antiprotons to the stack tail. Here, the shutter is not yet mounted. Precooling pickups and kickers had the same design, except that the kickers had cooling circuits and the pickups had none. Peering th...

  13. Behavioral Stochastic Resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Jan A.; Schimansky-Geier, Lutz; Beisner, Beatrix; Neiman, Alexander; Russell, David F.; Yakusheva, Tatyana; Moss, Frank

    2001-03-01

    Zooplankton emit weak electric fields into the surrounding water that originate from their own muscular activities associated with swimming and feeding. Juvenile paddlefish prey upon single zooplankton by detecting and tracking these weak electric signatures. The passive electric sense in the fish is provided by an elaborate array of electroreceptors, Ampullae Lorenzini, spread over the surface of an elongated rostrum. We have previously shown that the fish use stochastic resonance to enhance prey capture near the detection threshold of their sensory system. But stochastic resonance requires an external source of electrical noise in order to function. The required noise can be provided by a swarm of plankton, for example Daphnia. Thus juvenile paddlefish can detect and attack single Daphnia as outliers in the vicinity of the swarm by making use of noise from the swarm itself. From the power spectral density of the noise plus the weak signal from a single Daphnia we calculate the signal-to-noise ratio and the Fisher information at the surface of the paddlefish's rostrum. The results predict a specific attack pattern for the paddlefish that appears to be experimentally testable.

  14. Newborns health in the Danube Region: Environment, biomonitoring, interventions and economic benefits in a large prospective birth cohort study

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Andersen, Z.J.; Šrám, Radim; Ščasný, M.; Gurzau, E.S.; Fucic, A.; Gribaldo, L.; Rössner ml., Pavel; Rössnerová, Andrea; Kohlová, M.B.; Máca, V.; Zvěřinová, I.; Gajdošová, D.; Moshammer, H.; Rudnai, P.; Knudsen, L. E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 88, mar. (2016), s. 112-122 ISSN 0160-4120 Institutional support: RVO:68378041 Keywords : birth cohort * environment * biomonitoring * air pollution * danube region * childhood health Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 7.088, year: 2016

  15. Stochastic programming with integer recourse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Vlerk, Maarten Hendrikus

    1995-01-01

    In this thesis we consider two-stage stochastic linear programming models with integer recourse. Such models are at the intersection of two different branches of mathematical programming. On the one hand some of the model parameters are random, which places the problem in the field of stochastic

  16. Thermal mixtures in stochastic mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerra, F [Rome Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Matematica; Loffredo, M I [Salerno Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica

    1981-01-17

    Stochastic mechanics is extended to systems in thermal equilibrium. The resulting stochastic processes are mixtures of Nelson processes. Their Markov property is investigated in some simple cases. It is found that in order to inforce Markov property the algebra of observable associated to the present must be suitably enlarged.

  17. Alternative Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe stochastic volatility model usually incorporates asymmetric effects by introducing the negative correlation between the innovations in returns and volatility. In this paper, we propose a new asymmetric stochastic volatility model, based on the leverage and size effects. The model is

  18. Stochastic ferromagnetism analysis and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Brzezniak, Zdzislaw; Neklyudov, Mikhail; Prohl, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    This monograph examines magnetization dynamics at elevated temperatures which can be described by the stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation (SLLG). Comparative computational studies with the stochastic model are included. Constructive tools such as e.g. finite element methods are used to derive the theoretical results, which are then used for computational studies.

  19. The role and origin of dilatant structural environments in the spatial control of geo-economic deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosello, E.

    2010-01-01

    A major controlling the geometry, size and spatial location of the mineralization is the tectonic structure. This control is indeed essential in epigenetic deposits, where the structure is the main factor to determine the circulation, precipitation, and in many cases the generation of hydrothermal solutions associated with mineral deposits and / or alterations. Therefore, learning the type of structural control that a particular deposit is charged on a particular aspect and of fundamental importance not only in yacimientología to contribute to the genetic knowledge but also in economic terms to provide ideas and guidance in tasks prospecting, exploration and mineral exploitation

  20. Optimization of environmental management strategies through a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xiaodong, E-mail: xiaodong.zhang@beg.utexas.edu [Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78713 (United States); Huang, Gordon [Institute of Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► A dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming model is developed. ► Greenhouse gas emission control is considered. ► Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared. ► Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels are obtained. ► Tradeoffs between economics and environment are reflected. -- Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) management facilities have become a serious environmental issue. In MSW management, not only economic objectives but also environmental objectives should be considered simultaneously. In this study, a dynamic stochastic possibilistic multiobjective programming (DSPMP) model is developed for supporting MSW management and associated GHG emission control. The DSPMP model improves upon the existing waste management optimization methods through incorporation of fuzzy possibilistic programming and chance-constrained programming into a general mixed-integer multiobjective linear programming (MOP) framework where various uncertainties expressed as fuzzy possibility distributions and probability distributions can be effectively reflected. Two conflicting objectives are integrally considered, including minimization of total system cost and minimization of total GHG emissions from waste management facilities. Three planning scenarios are analyzed and compared, representing different preferences of the decision makers for economic development and environmental-impact (i.e. GHG-emission) issues in integrated MSW management. Optimal decision schemes under three scenarios and different p{sub i} levels (representing the probability that the constraints would be violated) are generated for planning waste flow allocation and facility capacity expansions as well as GHG emission control. The results indicate that economic and environmental tradeoffs can be effectively reflected through the proposed DSPMP model. The generated decision variables can help

  1. Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M; Moraes, A

    2015-06-28

    This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

  2. Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.; Moraes, A.

    2015-06-01

    This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

  3. Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Maître, O. P., E-mail: olm@limsi.fr [LIMSI-CNRS, UPR 3251, Orsay (France); Knio, O. M., E-mail: knio@duke.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Moraes, A., E-mail: alvaro.moraesgutierrez@kaust.edu.sa [King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)

    2015-06-28

    This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

  4. Variance decomposition in stochastic simulators

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maî tre, O. P.; Knio, O. M.; Moraes, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    This work aims at the development of a mathematical and computational approach that enables quantification of the inherent sources of stochasticity and of the corresponding sensitivities in stochastic simulations of chemical reaction networks. The approach is based on reformulating the system dynamics as being generated by independent standardized Poisson processes. This reformulation affords a straightforward identification of individual realizations for the stochastic dynamics of each reaction channel, and consequently a quantitative characterization of the inherent sources of stochasticity in the system. By relying on the Sobol-Hoeffding decomposition, the reformulation enables us to perform an orthogonal decomposition of the solution variance. Thus, by judiciously exploiting the inherent stochasticity of the system, one is able to quantify the variance-based sensitivities associated with individual reaction channels, as well as the importance of channel interactions. Implementation of the algorithms is illustrated in light of simulations of simplified systems, including the birth-death, Schlögl, and Michaelis-Menten models.

  5. Stochastic Calculus and Differential Equations for Physics and Finance

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2013-02-01

    1. Random variables and probability distributions; 2. Martingales, Markov, and nonstationarity; 3. Stochastic calculus; 4. Ito processes and Fokker-Planck equations; 5. Selfsimilar Ito processes; 6. Fractional Brownian motion; 7. Kolmogorov's PDEs and Chapman-Kolmogorov; 8. Non Markov Ito processes; 9. Black-Scholes, martingales, and Feynman-Katz; 10. Stochastic calculus with martingales; 11. Statistical physics and finance, a brief history of both; 12. Introduction to new financial economics; 13. Statistical ensembles and time series analysis; 14. Econometrics; 15. Semimartingales; References; Index.

  6. Nuclear power economic database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xiaoming; Li Lin; Zhao Shiping

    1996-01-01

    Nuclear power economic database (NPEDB), based on ORACLE V6.0, consists of three parts, i.e., economic data base of nuclear power station, economic data base of nuclear fuel cycle and economic database of nuclear power planning and nuclear environment. Economic database of nuclear power station includes data of general economics, technique, capital cost and benefit, etc. Economic database of nuclear fuel cycle includes data of technique and nuclear fuel price. Economic database of nuclear power planning and nuclear environment includes data of energy history, forecast, energy balance, electric power and energy facilities

  7. A study of the health and economic effects of influenza-like illness on the working population under different working environments of a large corporation in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kenneth K C; Li, Shu Chuen; Kwong, Kai Sun; Chan, Thomas Y K; Lee, Vivian W Y; Lau, Joseph T F

    2008-01-01

    The incidence, health and economic impacts of influenza-like illness (ILI) among the working population in Hong Kong had never been studied. Due to the nature of the disease, ILIs can have a significant impact on the operation of a corporation in terms of loss of productivity and reduced work performance. The present study was undertaken to determine the health and economic impacts of ILIs under different environmental conditions on the working population of a large corporation. Over 2,000 employees of a large corporation in the travelling and tourism industry were studied with three different types of working environment (confined, typical office and well ventilated) by two structured questionnaires. The most affected group in terms of productivity and health was the group working in a confined area, whilst those working in a well-ventilated area were least affected. However, symptoms of the confined area group seemed to disappear faster. The infection rate appeared to vary according to work environment for the studied population. Policies on preventive measures and early treatment are important for a corporation to reduce loss in productivity due to ILIs.

  8. Economics of technological change and the natural environment: How effective are innovations as a remedy for resource scarcity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bretschger, Lucas

    2005-01-01

    The paper aims to substantiate the importance of endogenous innovations when evaluating the compatibility of natural resource use and economic development. It explains that technological change has the potential to compensate for natural resource scarcity, diminishing returns to capital, poor input substitution, and material balance restrictions, but is limited by various restrictions like fading returns to innovative investments and rising research costs. It also shows how innovative activities are fostered by accurate price signals and research-favouring sectoral change. The simultaneous effects of increasing technical knowledge, decreasing resource inputs, and increasing world population largely determine the chances of long-run sustainable development. Consequently, future research has to be directed at a more thorough understanding of the mechanisms driving innovations in the presence of natural resource scarcity

  9. Energy, environment and poverty: the new economic order paradigms; Energia, meio ambiente e miseria: os paradigmas da nova ordem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bermann, Celio [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    1992-01-01

    The relationship that can be established between the production and consumption of energy, and concepts such as economic and/or social development, have been the subject of vigorous international debate in recent years. This paper lists the main formulations that have fed the debate and seeks to identify the controversies and deadlocks that have eventually transformed the energy question into a crucial problem. The paper also examines aspects of the industrial reconversion process on an international scale and the role performed by several Third World countries that are paying a steep price, in social and environmental terms, for being energy exporters. They have enabled many advanced industrial nations to develop less energy-intensive economies while their own populations - as in Brazil - have become impoverished and politically disenfranchised. (author) 2 tabs.

  10. Applied stochastic modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P

    2008-01-01

    Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

  11. Stochastic population theories

    CERN Document Server

    Ludwig, Donald

    1974-01-01

    These notes serve as an introduction to stochastic theories which are useful in population biology; they are based on a course given at the Courant Institute, New York, in the Spring of 1974. In order to make the material. accessible to a wide audience, it is assumed that the reader has only a slight acquaintance with probability theory and differential equations. The more sophisticated topics, such as the qualitative behavior of nonlinear models, are approached through a succession of simpler problems. Emphasis is placed upon intuitive interpretations, rather than upon formal proofs. In most cases, the reader is referred elsewhere for a rigorous development. On the other hand, an attempt has been made to treat simple, useful models in some detail. Thus these notes complement the existing mathematical literature, and there appears to be little duplication of existing works. The authors are indebted to Miss Jeanette Figueroa for her beautiful and speedy typing of this work. The research was supported by the Na...

  12. Propagator of stochastic electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavalleri, G.

    1981-01-01

    The ''elementary propagator'' for the position of a free charged particle subject to the zero-point electromagnetic field with Lorentz-invariant spectral density proportionalω 3 is obtained. The nonstationary process for the position is solved by the stationary process for the acceleration. The dispersion of the position elementary propagator is compared with that of quantum electrodynamics. Finally, the evolution of the probability density is obtained starting from an initial distribution confined in a small volume and with a Gaussian distribution in the velocities. The resulting probability density for the position turns out to be equal, to within radiative corrections, to psipsi* where psi is the Kennard wave packet. If the radiative corrections are retained, the present result is new since the corresponding expression in quantum electrodynamics has not yet been found. Besides preceding quantum electrodynamics for this problem, no renormalization is required in stochastic electrodynamics

  13. Child-care and feeding practices of urban middle class working and non-working Indonesian mothers: a qualitative study of the socio-economic and cultural environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshita, Airin; Schubert, Elizabeth; Whittaker, Maxine

    2012-07-01

    The double-burden problem of malnutrition in many developing countries is occurring against a backdrop of complex changes in the socio-economic and cultural environment. One such change is the increasing rate of female employment, a change that has attracted researchers to explore the possible relationships between maternal employment and child nutritional status. The present study employs a qualitative approach to explore the socio-economic and cultural environments that may influence child-care practices in families of working and non-working mothers with children of different nutritional status and types of domestic caregiver. It was conducted in Depok, a satellite city of Jakarta, Indonesia, and was designed as a case study involving 26 middle class families. The children were categorized as underweight, normal weight and obese, and caregivers were grouped as family and domestic paid caregivers. Twenty-six mothers and 18 caregivers were interviewed. Data were analysed by the constant comparative approach. The study identified five emerging themes, consisting of reason for working and not working, support for mother and caregivers, decision maker on child food, maternal self-confidence and access to resources. It confirmed that mothers and caregivers need support and adequate resources to perform child-care practices regardless of the child nutritional and maternal working status. Further research is required into how Indonesian mothers across a range of socio-economic strata can have increased options for quality child-care arrangements and support with child feeding. Additionally, this paper discussed the importance of enhanced dissemination of health information addressing both child underweight and obesity problems. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  14. RES: Regularized Stochastic BFGS Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, Aryan; Ribeiro, Alejandro

    2014-12-01

    RES, a regularized stochastic version of the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton method is proposed to solve convex optimization problems with stochastic objectives. The use of stochastic gradient descent algorithms is widespread, but the number of iterations required to approximate optimal arguments can be prohibitive in high dimensional problems. Application of second order methods, on the other hand, is impracticable because computation of objective function Hessian inverses incurs excessive computational cost. BFGS modifies gradient descent by introducing a Hessian approximation matrix computed from finite gradient differences. RES utilizes stochastic gradients in lieu of deterministic gradients for both, the determination of descent directions and the approximation of the objective function's curvature. Since stochastic gradients can be computed at manageable computational cost RES is realizable and retains the convergence rate advantages of its deterministic counterparts. Convergence results show that lower and upper bounds on the Hessian egeinvalues of the sample functions are sufficient to guarantee convergence to optimal arguments. Numerical experiments showcase reductions in convergence time relative to stochastic gradient descent algorithms and non-regularized stochastic versions of BFGS. An application of RES to the implementation of support vector machines is developed.

  15. Microgrid Reliability Modeling and Battery Scheduling Using Stochastic Linear Programming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardoso, Goncalo; Stadler, Michael; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris; DeForest, Nicholas; Barbosa-Povoa, Ana; Ferrao, Paulo

    2013-05-23

    This paper describes the introduction of stochastic linear programming into Operations DER-CAM, a tool used to obtain optimal operating schedules for a given microgrid under local economic and environmental conditions. This application follows previous work on optimal scheduling of a lithium-iron-phosphate battery given the output uncertainty of a 1 MW molten carbonate fuel cell. Both are in the Santa Rita Jail microgrid, located in Dublin, California. This fuel cell has proven unreliable, partially justifying the consideration of storage options. Several stochastic DER-CAM runs are executed to compare different scenarios to values obtained by a deterministic approach. Results indicate that using a stochastic approach provides a conservative yet more lucrative battery schedule. Lower expected energy bills result, given fuel cell outages, in potential savings exceeding 6percent.

  16. Big Data and Population Health: Focusing on the Health Impacts of the Social, Physical, and Economic Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Howard; Galea, Sandro; Rosella, Laura; Henry, David

    2017-11-01

    We are at the dawn of a data deluge in health that carries extraordinary promise for improving the health of populations. However, current associated efforts, which generally center on the 'precision medicine' agenda, may well fall short in terms of its overall impact. The main challenges, it is argued, are less technical than the following: (1) identifying the data that matter most; (2) ensuring that we make better use of existing data; and (3) extending our efforts from the individual to the population by exploiting new, complex, and sometimes unstructured, data sources. Advances in Epidemiology have shown that policies, features of institutions, characteristics of communities, living and environmental conditions, and social relationships all contribute, together with individual behaviors and factors such as poverty and race, to the production of health. Examples are discussed, leading to recommendations that focus on core priorities for data linkage, including those relating to marginalized populations, better data on socioeconomic status, micro- and macro-environments, collaborating with researchers in the fields of education, environment, and social sciences to ensure the validity and accuracy of multilevel data, aligning research aims with policy decisions that must be made, and heightening efforts to protect privacy.

  17. Stochastic estimation of electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapetanovic, I.; Konjic, T.; Zahirovic, Z.

    1999-01-01

    Electricity consumption forecasting represents a part of the stable functioning of the power system. It is very important because of rationality and increase of control process efficiency and development planning of all aspects of society. On a scientific basis, forecasting is a possible way to solve problems. Among different models that have been used in the area of forecasting, the stochastic aspect of forecasting as a part of quantitative models takes a very important place in applications. ARIMA models and Kalman filter as stochastic estimators have been treated together for electricity consumption forecasting. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to present the stochastic forecasting aspect using short time series. (author)

  18. Linear stochastic neutron transport theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewins, J.

    1978-01-01

    A new and direct derivation of the Bell-Pal fundamental equation for (low power) neutron stochastic behaviour in the Boltzmann continuum model is given. The development includes correlation of particle emission direction in induced and spontaneous fission. This leads to generalizations of the backward and forward equations for the mean and variance of neutron behaviour. The stochastic importance for neutron transport theory is introduced and related to the conventional deterministic importance. Defining equations and moment equations are derived and shown to be related to the backward fundamental equation with the detector distribution of the operational definition of stochastic importance playing the role of an adjoint source. (author)

  19. Stochasticity in the Josephson map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomura, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.H.; Filippov, A.T.

    1996-04-01

    The Josephson map describes nonlinear dynamics of systems characterized by standard map with the uniform external bias superposed. The intricate structures of the phase space portrait of the Josephson map are examined on the basis of the tangent map associated with the Josephson map. Numerical observation of the stochastic diffusion in the Josephson map is examined in comparison with the renormalized diffusion coefficient calculated by the method of characteristic function. The global stochasticity of the Josephson map occurs at the values of far smaller stochastic parameter than the case of the standard map. (author)

  20. Introduction to stochastic dynamic programming

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon M; Lukacs, E

    1983-01-01

    Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming presents the basic theory and examines the scope of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. The book begins with a chapter on various finite-stage models, illustrating the wide range of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. Subsequent chapters study infinite-stage models: discounting future returns, minimizing nonnegative costs, maximizing nonnegative returns, and maximizing the long-run average return. Each of these chapters first considers whether an optimal policy need exist-providing counterexamples where appropriate-and the